Sample records for forecast previous 5-yr

  1. Previous Agreements

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)IntegratedSpeedingTechnical News, information and graphicPrevious-Agreements Sign In

  2. Microsoft Word - S07963_MND 5yr

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOn AprilA group currentBradleyTableSelling7 August 2008 Office of LegacyDraft CalendarThird

  3. Microsoft Word - S07963_MND 5yr

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOn AprilA groupTuba City, Arizona, Disposal SiteRadiologicalInspection Site-Wide1011Site

  4. Microsoft Word - S07963_MND 5yr

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOn AprilA groupTuba City, Arizona, Disposal SiteRadiologicalInspection

  5. Microsoft Word - S07963_MND 5yr

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOn AprilA groupTuba City, Arizona, Disposal SiteRadiologicalInspectionCommunity

  6. Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.

    1983-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)

  7. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  8. PREVIOUS ARTICLE Who Finances

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rollins, Andrew M.

    Energy -- all Kleiner Perkins portfolio companies. Mark Kerstens, Solexel's chief sales and marketingPREVIOUS ARTICLE Who Finances Residential Solar in... NEXT ARTICLE Two Charts That Illustrate the... Solexel, Thin-Silicon Solar Startup, Lands $31M More in VC Funding More than $200 million in funding so

  9. Headlines Previous Editions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOnItem NotEnergy,ARMFormsGasReleaseSpeechesHallNot Logged3 HanfordHarry S. TrumanPrevious

  10. Previous Year Awards

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)IntegratedSpeedingTechnical News, information and graphicPrevious-Agreements

  11. anisotropy probe 5-yr: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Summary: The Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) mapped the distribution of temperature and polarization over the entire sky in five microwave frequency bands. These...

  12. FACULTY of HEALTH SCIENCES 5 Yr Academic Plan (2013 2018)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and improve health and well-being. Mission: The Faculty of Health Sciences strives to improve the health Freedom, Integrity, Excellence. We pursue: intellectual integrity; collegiality; academic freedom; academic rigor, quality and excellence; integration of education and research themes; and knowledge

  13. City of Las Vegas 5yr CIP 2010-2014

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOn AprilA Approved:AdministrationAnalysisDarby/%2AO 474.2 Chg U.S. S p e c t i R

  14. Microsoft Word - S07406_5YrRev

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOn AprilA group currentBradleyTableSelling7 August 2008 Office of LegacyDraft

  15. Microsoft Word - 5yr08_ch00_index.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)Integrated Codes |IsLove Your HomeOverviewCleanupShipping Form3 A

  16. Microsoft Word - S07406_5YrRev

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOn AprilA groupTuba City, Arizona, Disposal SiteRadiological

  17. Microsoft Word - S07406_5YrRev

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOn AprilA groupTuba City, Arizona, Disposal SiteRadiologicalInspection Photos and Checklist

  18. Microsoft Word - S07406_5YrRev

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOn AprilA groupTuba City, Arizona, Disposal SiteRadiologicalInspection Photos and

  19. Microsoft Word - S07406_5YrRev

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOn AprilA groupTuba City, Arizona, Disposal SiteRadiologicalInspection Photos andInterview

  20. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  1. Technology Forecasting Scenario Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

  2. Rainfall-River Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    ;2Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program · Minimize losses due management and enhance America's coastal assets · Expand information for managing America's Water Resources, Precipitation and Water Quality Observations · USACE Reservoir Operation Information, Streamflow, Snowpack

  3. Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romo, Juan

    Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap Lorenzo Pascual, Juan generated by GARCH processes. The main advantage over other bootstrap methods previously proposed for GARCH by having conditional heteroscedasticity. Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH

  4. An econometric analysis and forecasting of Seoul office market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Kyungmin

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines and forecasts the Seoul office market, which is going to face a big supply in the next few years. After reviewing several previous studies on the Dynamic model and the Seoul Office market, this thesis ...

  5. Probabilistic manpower forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koonce, James Fitzhugh

    1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1966 Major Subject...: Computer Science and Statistics PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis By JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas A@M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May...

  6. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uranium Processing Facility UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be...

  7. Long Term Forecast ofLong Term Forecast of TsunamisTsunamis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : ImproveImprove NOAANOAA''ss understandingunderstanding and forecast capabilityand forecast capability inin

  8. Steam System Forecasting and Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    '. This and the complex and integrated nature of the plants energy balance makes steam system forecasting and management essential for optimum use of the plant's energy. This paper discusses the method used by Union carbide to accomplish effective forecasting...

  9. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  10. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

    EMGT 835 FIELD PROJECT: Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting By Juan Mario Balandran jmbg@hotmail.com Master of Science The University of Kansas Fall Semester, 2005 An EMGT Field Project report submitted...............................................................................................................................................10 Current Inventory Forecast Process ...........................................................................................10 Development of Alternative Forecast Process...

  11. timber quality Modelling and forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe M E F Y Q U E #12;Valuing and the UK ­ are working closely together to develop a model to help forecast timber growth, yield, quality

  12. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    electricity demand forecast means that the region's electricity needs would grow by 5,343 average megawattsDemand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping

  13. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  14. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

  15. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantifying PV power output variability,” Solar Energy, vol.each solar sen at node i, P(t) the total power output of theSolar Forecasting Historically, traditional power generation technologies such as fossil and nu- clear power which were designed to run in stable output

  16. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  17. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Ed.. Editor: Jan

  18. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))

    1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.

  19. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  20. ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005.................................................................................................................................3 PACIFIC GAS & ELECTRIC PLANNING AREA ........................................................................................9 Commercial Sector

  1. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

  2. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission's final forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural gas demand Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand

  3. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the California Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand

  4. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility

  5. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce

  6. Conservation The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    & Resources Creating Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the PNW's Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad's Wild RideNorthwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast ­­ Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Dominates ResourceDominates Resource DevelopmentDevelopment Tom EckmanTom Eckman

  7. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency and Demand Analysis Division Scott W. Matthews Acting Executive

  8. Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Robert Stephen

    Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good Technical Report 47 September 1989 Computational Logic Inc the physical behavior of computer programs can reduce these risks for software engineering in the same way that it does for aerospace and other fields of engineering. Present forecasting capabilities for computer

  9. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  10. air pollution forecast: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    air pollution forecast First Page Previous Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM...

  11. Carnegie Mellon University 1 Previous Catalogs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carnegie Mellon University 1 Previous Catalogs · 2013-2014 Catalog (Web, PDF) · 2012-2013 Catalog (Web (http://coursecatalog.web.cmu.edu/ previous/2012-2013), PDF (http://coursecatalog.web.cmu.edu/ previous/1213_catalog.pdf)) · 2011-2012 Catalog (Web (http://coursecatalog.web.cmu.edu/ previous/2011

  12. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN with primary contributions in the area of decision support for reservoir planning and management Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project

  13. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN: California Energy Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Martha

  14. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  15. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  16. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  17. CKBGroup/Previous Events | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Get Involved Help Apps Datasets Community Login | Sign Up Search Page Edit History Facebook icon Twitter icon CKBGroupPrevious Events < CKBGroup Jump to: navigation, search...

  18. PREVIOUS GEOSCIENCES INTERNSHIP EXPERIENCES CITY PLANNING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kurapov, Alexander

    PREVIOUS GEOSCIENCES INTERNSHIP EXPERIENCES CITY PLANNING TRANSPORTATION PLANNING LAND USE (HIGHER EDUCATION) LAND USE PLANNING INTERNSHIPS CH2M-HILL PLANNING AND ENGINEERING CITY OF ANAHEIM

  19. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  20. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  1. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  2. Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    forecasting methods and better integration of advanced wind power forecasts into system and plant operations and wind power plants) ­ Review and assess current practices Propose and test new and improved approachesWind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud

  3. 1995 shipment review & five year forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fetherolf, D.J. Jr. [East Penn Manufacturing Co., Inc., Lyon Station, PA (United States)

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the 1995 battery shipment review and five year forecast for the battery market. Historical data is discussed.

  4. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  5. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility Planning Area Energy Policy Report. The forecast includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low

  6. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  7. Calculator simplifies field production forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bixler, B.

    1982-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of forecasting future field production from an assumed average well production schedule and drilling schedule has been programmed for the HP-41C hand-held programmable computer. No longer must tedious row summations be made by hand for staggered well production schedules. Details of the program are provided.

  8. A Quantitative Analysis of Previously Launched Adults

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Farris, Demetrea Nicole

    2012-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    " of either previously launched or failure to launch. I undertake two multinomial logistic regression models with the dependent variable "launching status." I then proceed to a replication of the original analysis with two other multinomial logistic regression...

  9. Previous Up Next Article From References: 0

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stachó, László

    Previous Up Next Article Citations From References: 0 From Reviews: 0 MR561879 (81d:62015) 62E20 for the volume of the intersection of an n-dimensional simplex and an n-dimensional ball is also given. {For

  10. Previous Up Next Article From References: 0

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stachó, László

    Previous Up Next Article Citations From References: 0 From Reviews: 0 MR1261496 (94k:49008) 49J35 of f on X × co(Y ). Here, co(Y ) is a certain simplex defined in the space of all real-valued functions

  11. Previous Up Next Article From References: 12

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ghys, Étienne

    Previous Up Next Article Citations From References: 12 From Reviews: 3 MR939473 (89e:55015) 55N35(M, R) is the cohomology of singular cochains whose value on a singular simplex is bounded independent of the simplex. From the work of Gromov, one knows that bounded cohomology interacts in a delicate manner

  12. Microsoft Word - S08399_2012 MMTS 5yrRev.doc

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOn AprilA groupTuba City, Arizona, Disposal

  13. Microsoft Word - S08400_2012_MVP_5yrRev.doc

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOn AprilA groupTuba City, Arizona, DisposalFourth Five-Year Review Report For Monticello

  14. Microsoft Word - S07693_5-yr review rpt.doc

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742EnergyOn AprilA groupTuba City, Arizona,Site Operations Guide Doc. No. S06815 Page 3-1ReviewThird

  15. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for Renewable Energy: Grid IntegrationReport AvailableForecasting NREL researchers use

  16. Previous PFR Announcements (pfr/announcements)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible forPortsmouth/Paducah ProjectPRE-AWARDenergyEnergy InnovationRecentPrevious

  17. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  18. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  19. Solid low-level waste forecasting guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

    1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford`s experience within the last six years. Hanford`s forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford`s annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford`s forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data.

  20. Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

    1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

  1. Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sancetta, Alessio

    the single individual forecasts. Several studies have shown that combining forecasts can be a useful hedge against structural breaks, and forecast combinations are often more stable than single forecasts (e.g. Hendry and Clements, 2004, Stock and Watson, 2004... in expectations. Hence, we have the following. Corollary 4 Suppose maxt?T kl (Yt, hwt,Xti)kr ? A taking expectation on the left hand side, adding 2A ? T and setting ? = 0 in mT (?), i.e. TX t=1 E [lt (wt)? lt (ut...

  2. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American...

  3. Previous Technical Assistance | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742 33 1112011 Strategic2 OPAM615_CostNSAR - T enAmountCammieReserveSecretary Johanns TranscriptPrevious

  4. Previous Power Rates (rates/current)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)IntegratedSpeedingTechnical News, information and graphicPrevious-Agreements Sign

  5. U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kamat, Vineet R.

    U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast Spring ­ Fall 2012 As of December 15, 2011 Prepared by AEC Preliminary & Advisory #12;U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 Overview · Campus by campus · Snapshot in time ­ Not all projects · Construction coordination efforts

  6. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts makeCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY

  7. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  8. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  9. 1992 five year battery forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amistadi, D.

    1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Five-year trends for automotive and industrial batteries are projected. Topic covered include: SLI shipments; lead consumption; automotive batteries (5-year annual growth rates); industrial batteries (standby power and motive power); estimated average battery life by area/country for 1989; US motor vehicle registrations; replacement battery shipments; potential lead consumption in electric vehicles; BCI recycling rates for lead-acid batteries; US average car/light truck battery life; channels of distribution; replacement battery inventory end July; 2nd US battery shipment forecast.

  10. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluating A PotentialJumpGermanFife Energy Park atFisiaFlorida:Forecast Energy Jump to:

  11. Hybrid methodology for hourly global radiation forecasting in Mediterranean area

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Voyant, Cyril; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie Laure

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The renewable energies prediction and particularly global radiation forecasting is a challenge studied by a growing number of research teams. This paper proposes an original technique to model the insolation time series based on combining Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. While ANN by its non-linear nature is effective to predict cloudy days, ARMA techniques are more dedicated to sunny days without cloud occurrences. Thus, three hybrids models are suggested: the first proposes simply to use ARMA for 6 months in spring and summer and to use an optimized ANN for the other part of the year; the second model is equivalent to the first but with a seasonal learning; the last model depends on the error occurred the previous hour. These models were used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. The forecasting performance was compared among several models: the 3 above mentioned models, the best ANN and ARMA for each location. In t...

  12. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  13. Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo Oldenburg University have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius, 1981), when daily solar radiation forecasts

  14. Alternative methods for forecasting GDP Dominique Gugan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    analysis. Better forecast performance for macroeconomic variables will lead to Paris School of Economics the speed of computers that can develop search algorithms from appropriate selection criteria, Devroye. 1 Introduction Forecasting macroeconomic variables such as GDP and inflation play an important role

  15. A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vertes, Akos

    APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Tara M. Sinclair , H.O. Stekler, and Warren Carnow Department of Economics The George Washington University Monroe Hall #340 2115 G Street NW Washington, DC 20052 JEL Codes, Mahalanobis Distance Abstract This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts

  16. 2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing and Economics at California State University, Fullerton, the largest accredited business school in California

  17. Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Luke D.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    /effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a...

  18. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  19. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency SEPTEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SDV1REV CALIFORNIA The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand and Methods

  20. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  1. Radar-Derived Forecasts of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over Houston, Texas

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mosier, Richard Matthew

    2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

    .1.6 Comparison to Previous Studies......................................................................59 3.2 VII Forecast Method...............................................................................................61 3.2.1 Percentile Value...) percentile values for the entire dataset (1997-2006) when considering only cells with a minimum track count of 2.......................................................................... 117 3.5 Same as Figure 3.4 for the POD values...

  2. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    procurement process at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast models. Both the staff draft energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly and commercial sectors. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather

  3. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and water pumping sectors. Mark Ciminelli forecasted energy for transportation, communication and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast

  4. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  5. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  6. Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Islam, M. Saif

    Page 1 Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey

  7. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

  8. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  9. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    supervised data preparation. Steven Mac and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Cynthia Rogers generation, conservation, energy efficiency, climate zone, investorowned, public, utilities, additional

  10. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  11. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  12. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  13. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  14. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  15. Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks...

  16. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  17. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  18. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast W ith natural gas prices significantlyof AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  19. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to accurately forecast natural gas prices. Many policyseek alternative methods to forecast natural gas prices. Thethe accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported

  20. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  1. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsogas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesof AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  2. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Natural Gas Price Forecast Although natural gas prices areof AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  3. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  4. Traffic congestion forecasting model for the INFORM System. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Azarm, A.; Mughabghab, S.; Stock, D.

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a computerized traffic forecasting model, developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for a portion of the Long Island INFORM Traffic Corridor. The model has gone through a testing phase, and currently is able to make accurate traffic predictions up to one hour forward in time. The model will eventually take on-line traffic data from the INFORM system roadway sensors and make projections as to future traffic patterns, thus allowing operators at the New York State Department of Transportation (D.O.T.) INFORM Traffic Management Center to more optimally manage traffic. It can also form the basis of a travel information system. The BNL computer model developed for this project is called ATOP for Advanced Traffic Occupancy Prediction. The various modules of the ATOP computer code are currently written in Fortran and run on PC computers (pentium machine) faster than real time for the section of the INFORM corridor under study. The following summarizes the various routines currently contained in the ATOP code: Statistical forecasting of traffic flow and occupancy using historical data for similar days and time (long term knowledge), and the recent information from the past hour (short term knowledge). Estimation of the empirical relationships between traffic flow and occupancy using long and short term information. Mechanistic interpolation using macroscopic traffic models and based on the traffic flow and occupancy forecasted (item-1), and the empirical relationships (item-2) for the specific highway configuration at the time of simulation (construction, lane closure, etc.). Statistical routine for detection and classification of anomalies and their impact on the highway capacity which are fed back to previous items.

  5. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  6. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast..................................................................................................................................... 2 Economic Growth Assumptions

  7. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet...

  8. Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Datta, Shoumen

    2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...

  9. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  10. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  11. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  12. LHCb Computing Resources: 2011 re-assessment, 2012 request and 2013 forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Graciani, R

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This note covers the following aspects: re-assessment of computing resource usage estimates for 2011 data taking period, request of computing resource needs for 2012 data taking period and a first forecast of the 2013 needs, when no data taking is foreseen. Estimates are based on 2010 experienced and last updates from LHC schedule, as well as on a new implementation of the computing model simulation tool. Differences in the model and deviations in the estimates from previous presented results are stressed.

  13. LHCb Computing Resources: 2012 re-assessment, 2013 request and 2014 forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Graciani Diaz, Ricardo

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This note covers the following aspects: re-assessment of computing resource usage estimates for 2012 data-taking period, request of computing resource needs for 2013, and a first forecast of the 2014 needs, when restart of data-taking is foreseen. Estimates are based on 2011 experience, as well as on the results of a simulation of the computing model described in the document. Differences in the model and deviations in the estimates from previous presented results are stressed.

  14. Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1 1 Great Lakes forecasts in operational hydrology builds a sample of possibilities for the future, of climate series from-parametric method can be extended into a new weighted parametric hydrological forecasting technique to allow

  15. A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

  16. FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions forecasts is 0.05o in latitude and longitude. Solar Radiation model: The model presented in this paper

  17. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  18. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural dedicated models to forecast the 12 individual months directly. Results indicate better performance is superior to naïve forecasts based on persistence and seasonality, and is better than results quoted

  19. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make assumptions about fuel price forecastsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY ENERGY COMMISSION Gordon Schremp, Jim Page, and Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Principal Authors Jim Page Project

  20. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

  1. Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lang, K.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    capital requirements and research and development programs in the alum inum industry. : CONCLUSIONS Forecasting the use of conservation techndlo gies with a market penetration model provides la more accountable method of projecting aggrega...

  2. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , Gary Occhiuzzo, and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Don Schultz and Doug Kemmer developed. California Energy Commission, Electricity Supply Analysis Division. Publication Number: CEC2002012001CMFVI

  3. Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Facebook IPO ­ updated valuation and user forecasting Based on: Amendment No. 6 to Form S-1 (May 9. Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette, Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic Extreme Growth JPMPaper Cauwels and Sornette 840 1110 1820 S1- filing- May 9 2012 1006 1105 1371 Facebook

  4. Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

  5. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  6. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sripada, Yaji

    for generating textual summaries. Our algorithm has been implemented in a weather forecast generation system. 1 presentation, aid human understanding of the underlying data sets. SUMTIME is a research project aiming turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP

  7. Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olascoaga, Maria Josefina

    Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns María J. Olascoagaa,1 and George of Mexico in 2010. We present a methodology to predict major short-term changes in en- vironmental River's mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting fire could not be extinguished and the drilling rig

  8. New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined

  9. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency DECEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SFV1 CALIFORNIA and expertise of numerous California Energy Commission staff members in the Demand Analysis Office. In addition

  10. SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gambardella, Luca Maria

    SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL Luca Maria Gambardella1 , Gianluca@idsia.ch 2 LCST, La Spezia Container Terminal, La Spezia (IT) 3 DSP, Data System & Planning sa, Manno (CH working in intermodal container terminals. INTRODUCTION The amount of work a container terminal deals

  11. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  12. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  13. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price as traded on the wholesale, short-term (spot) market at the Mid-Columbia trading hub. This price represents noted. BASE CASE FORECAST The base case wholesale electricity price forecast uses the Council's medium

  14. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  15. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  16. Determining root correspondence between previously and newly detected objects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paglieroni, David W.; Beer, N Reginald

    2014-06-17T23:59:59.000Z

    A system that applies attribute and topology based change detection to networks of objects that were detected on previous scans of a structure, roadway, or area of interest. The attributes capture properties or characteristics of the previously detected objects, such as location, time of detection, size, elongation, orientation, etc. The topology of the network of previously detected objects is maintained in a constellation database that stores attributes of previously detected objects and implicitly captures the geometrical structure of the network. A change detection system detects change by comparing the attributes and topology of new objects detected on the latest scan to the constellation database of previously detected objects.

  17. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    plans Previous Step Next Step 2.2 Resources on existing programs, studies, and data Best practicelessons learned documents and related programs Center for Climate...

  18. Previous Computer Science Award Announcements | U.S. DOE Office...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Previous Computer Science Award Announcements Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) ASCR Home About Research Applied Mathematics Computer Science Exascale Tools Workshop...

  19. Wildfires may contribute more to global warming than previously...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wildfires may contribute more to global warming Wildfires may contribute more to global warming than previously predicted They suggest that fire emissions could contribute a lot...

  20. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  1. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  2. Guidance on Microbial Contamination in Previously Flooded Outdoor Areas

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guidance on Microbial Contamination in Previously Flooded Outdoor Areas Environmental Health Buford Highway NE (F-60) Atlanta, GA 30341 March 2011 #12;2 Guidance on Microbial Contamination in Previously Flooded Outdoor Areas Problem Statement Microbial contamination--both bacterial and viral

  3. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  4. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    it can generate as much or more energy that it needs ? Building activities need N kWhrs per day (solar panels, heating, etc) ? Harvested from solar panels & passive solar. Amount depends on weather ? NWP models forecast DSWRF @ surface (MJ/m2...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/SolarScribe/SolarScribe/ CMC NWP datasets for Day 2 Forecasts ? Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) ? RDPS raw model data ? 10 km resolution, North America, 000-054 forecasts ? Data at: http...

  5. Forecasting model of the PEPCO service area economy. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Volume III describes and documents the regional economic model of the PEPCO service area which was relied upon to develop many of the assumptions of future values of economic and demographic variables used in the forecast. The PEPCO area model is mathematically linked to the Wharton long-term forecast of the U.S. Volume III contains a technical discussion of the structure of the regional model and presents the regional economic forecast.

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  7. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications Computational Advances in Applied...

  8. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  9. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  10. Forecasting the underlying potential governing climatic time series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Livina, V N; Mudelsee, M; Lenton, T M

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for `potential analysis' of climatic tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting climate transitions and bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis.

  11. Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment, provides an authoritative voice on the...

  12. analytical energy forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    COMMISSION Tom Gorin Lynn Marshall Principal Author Tom Gorin Project 11 Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Computer Technologies and...

  13. Econometric model and futures markets commodity price forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Just, Richard E.; Rausser, Gordon C.

    1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Versus CCll1rnercial Econometric M:ldels." Uni- versity ofWorking Paper No. 72 ECONOMETRIC ! 'econometric forecasts with the futures

  14. Optimization Online - Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. Fisher

    2007-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Feb 14, 2007 ... Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization. M. Fisher(Mike.Fisher ***at*** ecmwf.int)

  15. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  16. Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gordon, Geoffrey J.

    Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery , Michael Trick Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. nihat

  17. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  18. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using theof two methods to forecast natural gas prices is performed:accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the

  19. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast With natural gas prices significantlyto the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEO 2004 and AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely once

  20. Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wickham, Richard Robert

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is arguably the most critical component of airline management. Essentially, airlines forecast demand to plan the supply of services to respond to that demand. Forecasts of short-term demand facilitate tactical ...

  1. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  2. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  3. Renewable Forecast Min-Max2020.xls

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's PossibleRadiation Protection Technical s o Freiberge s 3 c/)RenewableRenewable EnergyForecast of

  4. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC) Environmental Assessments (EA)Budget(DANCE) Target 1Annual Waste Forecast and Funding

  5. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  6. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  7. Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

  8. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime meteorological data from sites upwind of wind farms can be efficiently used to improve short-term forecasts acknowledges the support of PPM Energy, Inc. The data used in this work were obtained from Oregon State

  9. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  10. A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansens, Jim

    A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

  11. RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Manry, Michael

    a mixture of hydroelectric and non- hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend, and to economically allocate the load between various non-hydroelectric plants. Neural networks provide an attractive technology for inflow forecasting, because of (1) their success in power load forecasting 1- 6 , and (2

  12. Introducing the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster Aston Chipanshi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miami, University of

    for crop yield forecasting and risk analysis. Using the Census Agriculture Region (CAR) as the unit Climate Decision Support and Adaptation, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1011, Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK S7V 1B7, Canada The Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF) is a statistical modelling tool

  13. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    have to be jointly taken into account in some decision-making problems, e.g. offshore wind farmWind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number

  14. Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power................................................ 14 2.2.3 Critical Processes for Wind Forecast

  15. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012 includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low energy demand case, and a mid energy demand

  16. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST, and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption STAFFFINALREPORT NOVEMBER 2007 CEC-200-2007-015-SF2 Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor #12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY

  17. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Manager Kae Lewis Acting Manager Demand Analysis Office Valerie T. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency Demand Forecast report is the product of the efforts of many current and former California Energy

  18. Distribution Based Data Filtering for Financial Time Series Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bailey, James

    recent past. In this paper, we address the challenge of forecasting the behavior of time series using@unimelb.edu.au Abstract. Changes in the distribution of financial time series, particularly stock market prices, can of stock prices, which aims to forecast the future values of the price of a stock, in order to obtain

  19. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co for the modeled wind- CAES system would not cover annualized capital costs. We also estimate market prices-ahead market is roughly $100, with large variability due to electric power prices. Wind power forecast errors

  20. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast to grow from 20,080 average megawatts in 2000 to 25 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  1. FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keller, Arturo A.

    resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

  2. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    - namic reserve quantification [8], for the optimal oper- ation of combined wind-hydro power plants [5, 1Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power

  3. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    -- Photovoltaic systems, Batteries, Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION This paper presents first results of a study Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  4. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    of the forecasting algorithm for the different conditions. 1. INTRODUCTION According to the U.S. Department of Energy could take advantage of times when electricity cost is lower, to chill a cold water storage tankForecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines

  5. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  6. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  7. Previous Article: Carbon Nanotubes Coated in Bee Venom

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ruina, Andy L.

    Previous Article: Carbon Nanotubes Coated in Bee Venom Can Detect Even a Single Molecule-so-blazing 1.3 miles per hour for 397.75 laps around a running track, but managed to make the whole trek using permission is prohibited. 05/12/11 at 10:32 am Utterly useless, except for use on dry lake beds, and paved

  8. PREVIOUS NAME NEW NAME Ambrosiella Ambrosiella Brader ex Arx & Hennebert

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    (part 1) Endoconidiophora Münch C. coerulescens complex (part 2) Davidsoniella Z.W. de Beer, T.A. Duong & M.J. Wingf. C. moniliformis complex Huntiella Z.W. de Beer, T.A. Duong & M.J. Wingf. C. paradoxa' Chalaropsis Peyronel PREVIOUS NAME NEW NAME Ambrosiella beaveri Ambrosiella beaveri Six, Z.W. de Beer & W

  9. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  10. Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ben C Allanach; Kyle Cranmer; Christopher G Lester; Arne M Weber

    2007-07-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Previous LHC forecasts for the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), based on current astrophysical and laboratory measurements, have used priors that are flat in the parameter tan beta, while being constrained to postdict the central experimental value of MZ. We construct a different, new and more natural prior with a measure in mu and B (the more fundamental MSSM parameters from which tan beta and MZ are actually derived). We find that as a consequence this choice leads to a well defined fine-tuning measure in the parameter space. We investigate the effect of such on global CMSSM fits to indirect constraints, providing posterior probability distributions for Large Hadron Collider (LHC) sparticle production cross sections. The change in priors has a significant effect, strongly suppressing the pseudoscalar Higgs boson dark matter annihilation region, and diminishing the probable values of sparticle masses. We also show how to interpret fit information from a Markov Chain Monte Carlo in a frequentist fashion; namely by using the profile likelihood. Bayesian and frequentist interpretations of CMSSM fits are compared and contrasted.

  11. Forecasting outbreaks of the douglas-fir tussock moth from lower crown cocoon samples. Forest Service research paper

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mason, R.R.; Scott, D.W.; Paul, H.G.

    1993-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A predictive technique using a simple linear regression was developed to forecast the midcrown density of small tussock moth larvae from estimates of cocoon density in the previous generation. The regression estimator was derived from field samples of cocoons and larvae taken from a wide range of nonoutbreak tussock moth populations. The accuracy of the predictions was demonstrated on an operational basis in an independent tussock moth outbreak.

  12. Verification of hourly forecasts of wind turbine power output

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A verification of hourly average wind speed forecasts in terms of hourly average power output of a MOD-2 was performed for four sites. Site-specific probabilistic transformation models were developed to transform the forecast and observed hourly average speeds to the percent probability of exceedance of an hourly average power output. (This transformation model also appears to have value in predicting annual energy production for use in wind energy feasibility studies.) The transformed forecasts were verified in a deterministic sense (i.e., as continuous values) and in a probabilistic sense (based upon the probability of power output falling in a specified category). Since the smoothing effects of time averaging are very pronounced, the 90% probability of exceedance was built into the transformation models. Semiobjective and objective (model output statistics) forecasts were made compared for the four sites. The verification results indicate that the correct category can be forecast an average of 75% of the time over a 24-hour period. Accuracy generally decreases with projection time out to approx. 18 hours and then may increase due to the fairly regular diurnal wind patterns that occur at many sites. The ability to forecast the correct power output category increases with increasing power output because occurrences of high hourly average power output (near rated) are relatively rare and are generally not forecast. The semiobjective forecasts proved superior to model output statistics in forecasting high values of power output and in the shorter time frames (1 to 6 hours). However, model output statistics were slightly more accurate at other power output levels and times. Noticeable differences were observed between deterministic and probabilistic (categorical) forecast verification results.

  13. NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt Global Insight, paid for by the West Virginia Department of Revenue. 2013 WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWest Virginia Economic Outlook 2013 is published by: Bureau of Business & Economic Research West

  14. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  15. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  16. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  17. November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shyy, Wei

    November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade in Services and the Current Account, 2000 of Forecast*** We forecast that the services trade surplus, which declined from 1997 to 1998 and edged upward. That is, from a level of $80.6 billion in 1999, we forecast that the services trade surplus will be $80

  18. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  19. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  20. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  1. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  2. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  3. ASSESSING THE QUALITY AND ECONOMIC VALUE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katz, Richard

    INFORMATION SYSTEM · Forecast -- Conditional probability distribution for event Z = z indicates forecast tornado #12;(1.2) FRAMEWORK · Joint Distribution of Observations & Forecasts Observed Weather = Forecast probability p (e.g., induced by Z) · Reliability Diagram Observed weather: = 1 (Adverse weather occurs) = 0

  4. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    GEPS 21 members ? Provides probabilistic forecasts ? Can give useful outlooks for longer term weather forecasts ? Scribe matrix from GDPS ? includes UMOS post processed model data ? Variables like Temperature, humidity post processed by UMOS ? See...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products/ ? Link to experimental 3-day outlook of REPS quilts ? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products.reps Users can also make their own products from ensemble forecast data? Sample ascii matrix of 2m temperature could be fed...

  5. Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Allanach, B C; Cranmer, Kyle; Lester, Christopher G; Weber, Arne M

    2007-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    ar X iv :0 70 5. 04 87 v3 [ he p- ph ] 5 J ul 20 07 Preprint typeset in JHEP style - HYPER VERSION DAMTP-2007-18 Cavendish-HEP-2007-03 MPP-2007-36 Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts Benjamin C Allanach1, Kyle Cranmer2... ’s likely discoveries. There are big differences between nature of the questions answered by a forecast, and the ques- tions that will be answered by the experiments themselves when they have acquired compelling data. A weather forecast predicting “severe...

  6. Previous world record shattered during six-experiment pulse

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)IntegratedSpeedingTechnical News, information and graphicPrevious-AgreementsMagnetic

  7. Previous MFRC-Funded Projects | The Ames Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible forPortsmouth/Paducah ProjectPRE-AWARDenergyEnergy InnovationRecentPrevious MFRC-Funded

  8. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  9. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  10. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  11. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  12. OCTOBER-NOVEMBER FORECAST FOR 2014 CARIBBEAN BASIN HURRICANE ACTIVITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    and hurricanes, but instead predicts both hurricane days and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Typically, while) tropical cyclone (TC) activity. We have decided to issue this forecast, because Klotzbach (2011) has

  13. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  14. A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

  15. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Agency: 1982-2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington,Agency: 2004, Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation,Agency: 2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C.

  16. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Energy2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Granger,Paper ???? The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric

  17. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  18. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  19. Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levinson, David M.

    Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1 David Levinson 2 February, the assumed networks to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went

  20. africa conditional forecasts: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  1. accident risk forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  2. Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Xiaorong

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GARCH...

  3. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  4. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  5. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  6. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  7. Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan

    Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems? M. Hashem Pesaran Cambridge University and USC Andreas Pick De Nederlandsche Bank and Cambridge University, CIMF Allan Timmermann UC San Diego and CREATES January 26, 2009...

  8. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  9. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  10. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties associated with the best...

  11. Subhourly wind forecasting techniques for wind turbine operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Kosorok, M.R.; Formica, W.J.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Three models for making automated forecasts of subhourly wind and wind power fluctuations were examined to determine the models' appropriateness, accuracy, and reliability in wind forecasting for wind turbine operation. Such automated forecasts appear to have value not only in wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine operating strategies (such as determining when to attempt startup). A simple persistence model, an autoregressive model, and a generalized equivalent Markhov (GEM) model were developed and tested using spring season data from the WKY television tower located near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The three models represent a pure measurement approach, a pure statistical method and a statistical-dynamical model, respectively. Forecasting models of wind speed means and measures of deviations about the mean were developed and tested for all three forecasting techniques for the 45-meter level and for the 10-, 30- and 60-minute time intervals. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a persistence-based approach, using onsite measurements, will probably be superior in the 10-minute time frame. The GEM model appears to have the most potential in 30-minute and longer time frames, particularly when forecasting wind speed fluctuations. However, several improvements to the GEM model are suggested. In comparison to the other models, the autoregressive model performed poorly at all time frames; but, it is recommended that this model be upgraded to an autoregressive moving average (ARMA or ARIMA) model. The primary constraint in adapting the forecasting models to the production of wind turbine cluster power output forecasts is the lack of either actual data, or suitable models, for simulating wind turbine cluster performance.

  12. Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awwad, Haitham Munir

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas AkM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May... 1991 Major Subject: Civil Engineering STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Approved as to style and content by: uan B. Valdes (Chair of Committee) alph A. Wurbs (Member) Marshall J. Mc...

  13. A model for short term electric load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tigue, John Robert

    1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

  14. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  15. Probabilistic wind power forecasting -European Wind Energy Conference -Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Probabilistic wind power forecasting - European Wind Energy Conference - Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting based on kernel density estimators J´er´emie Juban jeremie.juban@ensmp.fr; georges.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract Short-term wind power forecasting tools

  16. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    vs. AEO 2001 Price Forecast Natural Gas Price (nominal $/if forwards forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (ifs reference case forecast of natural gas prices delivered to

  17. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13T23:59:59.000Z

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  18. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  19. Daily pollution forecast using optimal meteorological data at synoptic and local scales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Russo, Ana; Raischel, Frank; Trigo, Ricardo; Mendes, Manuel

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We present a simple framework to easily pre-select the most essential data for accurately forecasting the concentration of the pollutant PM$_{10}$, based on pollutants observations for the years 2002 until 2006 in the metropolitan region of Lisbon, Portugal. Starting from a broad panoply of different data sets collected at several meteorological stations, we apply a forward stepwise regression procedure that enables us not only to identify the most important variables for forecasting the pollutant but also to rank them in order of importance. We argue the importance of this variable ranking, showing that the ranking is very sensitive to the urban spot where measurements are taken. Having this pre-selection, we then present the potential of linear and non-linear neural network models when applied to the concentration of pollutant PM$_{10}$. Similarly to previous studies for other pollutants, our validation results show that non-linear models in average perform as well or worse as linear models for PM$_{10}$. F...

  20. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23T23:59:59.000Z

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  1. Short-term planning and forecasting for petroleum. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elkins, R.D.

    1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Defense Fuel Supply Center (DFSC) has, in recent past, been unable to adequately forecast for short-term petroleum requirements. This has resulted in inaccurate replenishment quantities and required short-notice corrections, which interrupted planned resupply methods. The relationship between the annual CINCLANTFLT DFM budget and sales from the the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point (DFSP) is developed and the past sales data from the Norfolk DFSP is used to construct seasonality indices. Finally, the budget/sales relationship is combined with the seasonality indices to provide a new forecasting model. The model is then compared with the current one for FY-88 monthly forecasts. The comparison suggests that the new model can provide accurate, timely requirements data and improve resupply of the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point.

  2. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price.................................................................................................................................. 27 INTRODUCTION The Council prepares and periodically updates a 20-year forecast of wholesale to forecast wholesale power prices. AURORAxmp® provides the ability to inco

  3. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and validation.   Solar Energy.   73:5, 307? Perez, R. , forecast database.   Solar Energy.   81:6, 809?812.  forecasts in the US.   Solar Energy.   84:12, 2161?2172.  

  4. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean...

  5. Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Statton, James Cody

    2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

    . This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%....

  6. SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS Annette governing the insolation, forecasting of solar radiation makes the description of development of the cloud

  7. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range. The price of crude oil was $25 a barrel in January of 2000. In July 2008 it averaged $127, even approachingSixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction

  8. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  9. Solar Variability and Forecasting Jan Kleissl, Chi Chow, Matt Lave, Patrick Mathiesen,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Homes, Christopher C.

    Forecasting Benefits Use of state-of-art wind and solar forecasts reduces WECC operating costs by up to 14/MWh of wind and solar generation). WECC operating costs could be reduced by an additional $500 million

  10. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  11. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  12. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  13. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  14. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  15. Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater

  16. Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newton, Nathan J.

    2013-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

    This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how...

  17. Forecasting the demand for electric vehicles: accounting for attitudes and perceptions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bierlaire, Michel

    prediction, transportation, attitudes and perceptions, hybrid choice models, fractional factorial design: survey design, model estimation and forecasting. We develop a stated preferences (SP) survey with issues related to the application of models designed to forecast demand for new alternatives, most

  18. Price forecasting for U.S. cattle feeders: which technique to apply?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hicks, Geoff Cody

    1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    both feeder cattle costs and corn costs, and maximizing fed cattle prices. This research strives to evaluate the accuracy of six distinct price forecasting techniques over an eleven year period. The forecast techniques selected for this analysisare...

  19. Streamflow Forecasting Based on Statistical Applications and Measurements Made with Rain Gage and Weather Radar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hudlow, M.D.

    Techniques for streamflow forecasting are developed and tested for the Little Washita River in Oklahoma. The basic input for streamflow forecasts is rainfall. the rainfall amounts may be obtained from several sources; however, this study...

  20. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  1. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  2. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  3. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  4. DEFENDER: Detecting and Forecasting Epidemics using Novel Data-analytics for Enhanced Response

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmie, Donal; Hankin, Chris

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In recent years social and news media have increasingly been used to explain patterns in disease activity and progression. Social media data, principally from the Twitter network, has been shown to correlate well with official disease case counts. This fact has been exploited to provide advance warning of outbreak detection, tracking of disease levels and the ability to predict the likelihood of individuals developing symptoms. In this paper we introduce DEFENDER, a software system that integrates data from social and news media and incorporates algorithms for outbreak detection, situational awareness, syndromic case tracking and forecasting. As part of this system we have developed a technique for creating a location network for any country or region based purely on Twitter data. We also present a disease count tracking approach which leverages counts from multiple symptoms, which was found to improve the tracking of diseases by 37 percent over a model that used only previous case data. Finally we attempt to...

  5. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 15 SEPTEMBER 28, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  6. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 27 OCTOBER 10, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  7. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 16 AUGUST 29, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  8. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  9. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 12 OCTOBER 25, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three

  10. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 OCTOBER 11, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  11. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 13 SEPTEMBER 26, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  12. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 18 AUGUST 31, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  13. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 11 OCTOBER 24, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three

  14. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 2 AUGUST 15, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  15. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  16. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 17 AUGUST 30, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  17. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 4 AUGUST 17, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  18. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 29 OCTOBER 12, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  19. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 11 SEPTEMBER 24, 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the sixth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  20. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 12, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  1. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Birner, Thomas

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the third year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  2. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 28 SEPTEMBER 10, 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the sixth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  3. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 13 OCTOBER 26, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  4. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    -Gaussian case using the copula transform. On a wind power forecasting task, we show that this probabilisticLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random high-dimensional conditional Gaussian distributions to forecasting wind power and extend it to the non

  5. EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts by Caio A. S. van Oldenborgh, 2006: Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America. J. Climate and promote exchange of expertise and information between European and South American seasonal forecasters

  6. Hourly Temperature Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    ANNGSF) and for forecasting the one-hour-ahead heat load for a district heat load network (Seppälä et al and network analysis functions in power utilities. Since high-low temperature forecasts are usually provided-Rohani & Maratukulam, 1998). In other agricultural and environmental applications, even high-low temperature forecasts

  7. Development, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    can the forecasts completely cover the evolution of earthquake-generated tsunami waves: generationDevelopment, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models (forecast models) for use in NOAA's tsunami forecast

  8. Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation of specialized experts; application to Slovakian and French

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation of specialized experts; application-term forecast of electricity consumption based on ensemble methods. That is, we use several possibly independent´erieure and CNRS. hal-00484940,version1-19May2010 #12;Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation

  9. 2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA J models 1 INTRODUCTION Solar radiation and PV production forecasts are becoming increasingly important/) three teams of experts are benchmarking their solar radiation forecast against ground truth data

  10. Robust Pareto Optimum Routing of Ships Deterministic and Ensemble Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berlin,Technische Universität

    Robust Pareto ­ Optimum Routing of Ships utilizing Deterministic and Ensemble Weather Forecasts the SEAROUTES project, who provided me with exquisite weather forecasts, and who inspired me to apply ensemble ship operation. The more reliable weather forecasts and performance simulation of ships in a seaway

  11. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  12. Previous Workshops

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    FES Requirements Review 2014 BES Requirements Review 2014 Requirements Review Reports Case Studies Contact Us Technical Assistance: 1 800-33-ESnet (Inside US) 1 800-333-7638...

  13. Previous Workshops

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible forPortsmouth/Paducah ProjectPRE-AWARDenergyEnergytransmission-rates Sign In About

  14. Forecasting potential project risks through leading indicators to project outcome

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Ji Won

    2007-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

    , the Construction Industry Institute (CII) formed a research team to develop a new tool that can forecast the potential risk of not meeting specific project outcomes based on assessing leading indicators. Thus, the leading indicators were identified and then the new...

  15. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou--In current restructured wholesale power markets, the short length of time series for prices makes are fitted between D&O and wholesale power prices in order to obtain price scenarios for a specified time

  16. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  17. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Freitas, Nando

    economy. Commodity prices are key economical20 drivers in the market. Raw products such as oil, gold 15 1 Introduction16 17 1.1 Forecasting the commodities market18 The commodities market focuses of prices in both the short and long-term view25 point to help market participants gage a greater

  18. Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dalang, Robert C.

    Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract] Nicolas Gast EPFL, IC generation. The use of energy storage compensates to some extent these negative effects; it plays a buffer role between demand and production. We revisit a model of real storage proposed by Bejan et al.[1]. We

  19. 1994 battery shipment review and five-year forecast report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fetherolf, D. [East Penn Manufacturing Co., Lyon Station, PA (United States)

    1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a 1994 battery shipment review and five year forecast report. Data is presented on replacement battery shipments, battery shipments, car and truck production, truck sales, original equipment, shipments for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, and ten year battery service life trend.

  20. The Galactic Center Weather Forecast M. Moscibrodzka1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gammie, Charles F.

    The Galactic Center Weather Forecast M. Mo´scibrodzka1 , H. Shiokawa2 , C. F. Gammie2,3 , J*. The > 3M cloud will #12;­ 2 ­ interact strongly with gas near nominal pericenter at rp 300AU 8000GM/c2 transient phase while the flow circularizes-- accompanied by transient emission--it is natural to think

  1. GenForecast(26yr)(avg).PDF

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SLCAIP Historical & Forecast Generation at Plant Total Range of Hydrology 0 2,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 12,000,000,000 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 2 1...

  2. WIND POWER ENSEMBLE FORECASTING Henrik Aalborg Nielsen1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    WIND POWER ENSEMBLE FORECASTING Henrik Aalborg Nielsen1 , Henrik Madsen1 , Torben Skov Nielsen1. In this paper we address the problems of (i) transforming the mete- orological ensembles to wind power ensembles the uncertainty which follow from historical (climatological) data. However, quite often the actual wind power

  3. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  4. URBAN OZONE CONCENTRATION FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN CORSICA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Perceptron; Ozone concentration. 1. Introduction Tropospheric ozone is a major air pollution problem, both, Ajaccio, France, e-mail: balu@univ-corse.fr Abstract: Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air

  5. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. Phase I report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, R.M.; Hadder, G.R.; Singh, S.P.N.; Whittle, C.

    1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of the Navy (DON) requires an improved capability to forecast mobility fuel availability and quality. The changing patterns in fuel availability and quality are important in planning the Navy's Mobility Fuels R and D Program. These changes come about primarily because of the decline in the quality of crude oil entering world markets as well as the shifts in refinery capabilities domestically and worldwide. The DON requested ORNL's assistance in assembling and testing a methodology for forecasting mobility fuel trends. ORNL reviewed and analyzed domestic and world oil reserve estimates, production and price trends, and recent refinery trends. Three publicly available models developed by the Department of Energy were selected as the basis of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. The system was used to analyze the availability and quality of jet fuel (JP-5) that could be produced on the West Coast of the United States under an illustrative business-as-usual and a world oil disruption scenario in 1990. Various strategies were investigated for replacing the lost JP-5 production. This exercise, which was strictly a test case for the forecasting system, suggested that full recovery of lost fuel production could be achieved by relaxing the smoke point specifications or by increasing the refiners' gate price for the jet fuel. A more complete analysis of military mobility fuel trends is currently under way.

  6. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    the chance of winds high enough to pose dangers for boats or aircraft. In situations calling for a cost/loss analysis, the probabilities of different outcomes need to be known. For wind speed, this issue often arisesProbabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc

  7. Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

  8. Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

  9. Risk Forecasting with GARCH, Skewed t Distributions, and Multiple Timescales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Risk Forecasting with GARCH, Skewed t Distributions, and Multiple Timescales Alec N. Kercheval describe how the histori- cal data can first be GARCH filtered and then used to calibrate parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 3.2 Data and Stylized Facts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 3.3 GARCH Filter

  10. Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuhl, Michael E.

    Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks Matthew J. Daniels, NY 14623 Elisabeth Hager Hager Consulting Pittsford, NY 14534 Abstract The availability of beds is a critical factor for decision-making in hospitals. Bed availability (or alternatively the bed occupancy

  11. Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cerpa, Alberto E.

    Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

  12. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

  13. Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power and applications of power market simulation models around the world. Argonne's software tools are used extensively

  14. Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gratton, Claudio

    Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T), University of Lome, 114 Rue Agbalepedogan, BP: 20679, Lome, Togo e Center for Agricultural & Energy Policy model of potential biomass supply that incorporates the effect of biological control on crop choice

  15. Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peyraud, Lionel

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The importance of fog forecasting to the aviation community, to road transportation and to the public at large is irrefutable. The deadliest aviation accident in history was in fact partly a result of fog back on 27 March 1977. This has, along...

  16. Classification and forecasting of load curves Nolwen Huet

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cuesta, Juan Antonio

    Classification and forecasting of load curves Nolwen Huet Abstract The load curve, which gives of electricity customer uses. This load curve is only available for customers with automated meter reading. For the others, EDF must estimate this curve. Usually a clustering of the load curves is performed, followed

  17. What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamill, Tom

    1 What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from ensemble Kalman filters? Tom from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due to the model (e.g., stochas2c physics as error; part of spread growth from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due

  18. CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director-year increase in the debt ceiling -- both of which proceeded without the usual drama. Second, the private sector, corporate coffers are flush with cash, and low US energy prices have dramatically improved the global

  19. Exploiting weather forecasts for sizing photovoltaic energy bids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannitrapani, Antonello

    1 Exploiting weather forecasts for sizing photovoltaic energy bids Antonio Giannitrapani, Simone for a photovoltaic (PV) power producer taking part into a competitive electricity market characterized by financial set from an Italian PV plant. Index Terms--Energy market, bidding strategy, photovoltaic power

  20. Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prasanna, Viktor K.

    1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan, prasanna}@usc.edu I. INTRODUCTION Smart Power Grids exemplify an emerging class of Cyber Physical-on paradigm to support operational needs. Smart Grids are an outcome of instrumentation, such as Phasor

  1. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS AND ANALYSES FOR THE 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Page Manager FOSSIL FUELS OFFICE Mike Smith Deputy Director FUELS AND TRANSPORTATION DIVISION Melissa, Weights and Measurements/Gary Castro, Allan Morrison, John Mough, Ed Williams Clean Energy FuelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS AND ANALYSES FOR THE 2009 INTEGRATED

  2. Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannitrapani, Antonello

    bid is computed by exploiting the forecast energy price for the day ahead market, the historical wind renewable energy resources, such as wind and photovoltaic, has grown rapidly. It is well known the problem of optimizing energy bids for an independent Wind Power Producer (WPP) taking part

  3. Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ketter, Wolfgang

    Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges Wolfgang Ketter , John Collins. of Mgmt., Erasmus University Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Minnesota Dept,gini,schrater}@cs.umn.edu, agupta@csom.umn.edu Abstract We present basic building blocks of an agent that can use observable market

  4. Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ketter, Wolfgang

    Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges Wolfgang Ketter # , John Collins, Rotterdam Sch. of Mgmt., Erasmus University + Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, University wketter@rsm.nl, {jcollins,gini,schrater}@cs.umn.edu, agupta@csom.umn.edu Abstract We present basic

  5. THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    energy-using devices in the average U.S. household that used over 4,700 kWh of electricity, natural gas-using devices to energy price, household income, and the cost of these devices. This analysis findsTHE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY SERVICES by Steven Groves BASc

  6. Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    February 24, 2006 1J. McLean Sloughter is Graduate Research Assistant, Adrian E. Raftery is BlumsteinProbabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging J. McLean Sloughter, Adrian E. Raftery and Tilmann Gneiting 1 Department of Statistics, University of Washington

  7. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    : J. McLean Sloughter, Department of Mathematics, Seattle University, 901 12th Ave., P.O. Box 222000Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN SLOUGHTER Seattle University, Seattle, Washington TILMANN GNEITING Heidelberg University, Heidelberg

  8. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  9. EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology -

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    the fluctuating output from wind farms into power plant dispatching and energy trading, wind power predictionsEWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology 1 The Anemos Wind Power a professional, flexible platform for operating wind power prediction models, laying the main focus on state

  10. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  11. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatist...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    permission. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatist... Yulia Gel; Adrian

  12. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17T23:59:59.000Z

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  13. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  14. Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

    2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

  15. Pressure Normalization of Production Rates Improves Forecasting Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lacayo Ortiz, Juan Manuel

    2013-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    reservoir conditions, psi 2/cp ?wf Pseudopressure at flowing conditions, psi 2/cp ? Characteristic time parameter for SEPD model, D ?g Gas viscosity, cp ?o Oil viscosity, cp Acronyms BDF Boundary-Dominated Flow DCA Decline Curve Analysis EUR..., as the advanced analytical and numerical models depend on copious inputs, there is a high probability that different combinations of those parameters could generate equivalent and acceptable history matches, but different production forecasts and EUR...

  16. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom [Vanderbilt University, Nashville; Quaranta, Vito [Vanderbilt University, Nashville; Evans, Katherine J [ORNL; Rericha, Erin [Vanderbilt University, Nashville

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  17. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  18. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  19. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11T23:59:59.000Z

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  20. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2 2. Annual Energy Outlook (Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook forecasted price (of Energy, Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to

  1. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Downward surface solar radiation  data released at 12 UTC forecast shortwave radiation with data obtained from the radiation:   A statistical approach using satellite data.   

  2. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  3. FAA (federal Aviation Administration) aviation forecasts - fiscal years 1983-1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains the Fiscal Years 1983-1994 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) forecasts of aviation activity at FAA facilities. These include airports with FAA control towers, air route traffic control centers, and flight service stations. Detailed forecasts were made for the four major users of the national aviation system: air carriers, air taxi/commuters, general aviation and the military. The forecasts have been prepared to meet the budget and planning needs of the constituent units of the FAA and to provide information that can be used by state and local authorities, by the aviation industry and the general public. The overall outlook for the forecast period is for moderate economic growth, relatively stable real fuel prices, and decreasing inflation. Based upon these assumptions, aviation activity is forecast to increase by Fiscal Year 1994 by 97 percent at towered airports, 50 percent at air route traffic control centers, and 54 percent in flight services performed. Hours flown by general aviation is forecast to increase 56 percent and helicopter hours flown 80 percent. Scheduled domestic revenue passenger miles (RPM's) are forecast to increase 81 percent, with scheduled international RPM's forecast to increase by 80 percent and commuter RPM's forecast to increase by 220 percent.

  4. The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    a unique sampling of articles, we examine academic and mediaSample Articles Prediction Source Academic and Trade Totalshow that articles reporting on academic forecasts have

  5. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    user needs for convective weather forecasts," in AmericanJ. Andrews M. Weber, "Weather Information Requirements forInt. Conf. on Aviation Weather, Paris, France. [5] NASDAC. (

  6. Continuous reservoir simulation model updating and forecasting using a markov chain monte carlo method

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Chang

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    forecasts of well and reservoir performance, accessible at any time. It can be used to optimize long-term reservoir performance at field scale....

  7. A Kalman-filter bias correction of ozone deterministic, ensemble-averaged, and probabilistic forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monache, L D; Grell, G A; McKeen, S; Wilczak, J; Pagowski, M O; Peckham, S; Stull, R; McHenry, J; McQueen, J

    2006-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Kalman filtering (KF) is used to postprocess numerical-model output to estimate systematic errors in surface ozone forecasts. It is implemented with a recursive algorithm that updates its estimate of future ozone-concentration bias by using past forecasts and observations. KF performance is tested for three types of ozone forecasts: deterministic, ensemble-averaged, and probabilistic forecasts. Eight photochemical models were run for 56 days during summer 2004 over northeastern USA and southern Canada as part of the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation New England Air Quality (AQ) Study. The raw and KF-corrected predictions are compared with ozone measurements from the Aerometric Information Retrieval Now data set, which includes roughly 360 surface stations. The completeness of the data set allowed a thorough sensitivity test of key KF parameters. It is found that the KF improves forecasts of ozone-concentration magnitude and the ability to predict rare events, both for deterministic and ensemble-averaged forecasts. It also improves the ability to predict the daily maximum ozone concentration, and reduces the time lag between the forecast and observed maxima. For this case study, KF considerably improves the predictive skill of probabilistic forecasts of ozone concentration greater than thresholds of 10 to 50 ppbv, but it degrades it for thresholds of 70 to 90 ppbv. Moreover, KF considerably reduces probabilistic forecast bias. The significance of KF postprocessing and ensemble-averaging is that they are both effective for real-time AQ forecasting. KF reduces systematic errors, whereas ensemble-averaging reduces random errors. When combined they produce the best overall forecast.

  8. A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Phanthuwongpakdee, Kay; Hall, Amanda C.; Bates, Paul D.

    2013-11-04T23:59:59.000Z

    At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domain has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode revealed that it is crucial to account for basin-wide hydrological response time when assessing lead time performances notwithstanding structural limitations in the hydrological model and possibly large inaccuracies in precipitation data.

  9. Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koomey, Jonathan G.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1. Lawrence BerkeleyEnd-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1. Lawrence BerkeleyPower Research Institute. EPRI Research Project Meier, Alan

  10. Error growth in poor ECMWF forecasts over the contiguous United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modlin, Norman Ray

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    are found to have the majority of RMS growth on day I while poor forecasts do not experience rapid error growth until days 3 and 4. For poor forecasts, the leading EOFs reveal a wave pattern down stream of the Rocky Mountains. This pattern evolves...

  11. Extendedrange seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamicalstatistical model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    Extendedrange seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid 20 September 2010; published 9 November 2010. [1] A hybrid forecast model for seasonal hurricane between the number of seasonal hurricane and the large scale variables from ECMWF hindcasts. The increase

  12. Using meteorological data to forecast seasonal runoff on the River Jhelum, Pakistan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fowler, Hayley

    Using meteorological data to forecast seasonal runoff on the River Jhelum, Pakistan D.R. Archer a of Pakistan. Seasonal forecasts of spring and summer flow provide the opportunity for planning and would of Control between In- dia and Pakistan. The Jhelum then flows through the plains of the Punjab, where

  13. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime-Switching

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genton, Marc G.

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at a wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime. Geographically dispersed was applied to 2-hour-ahead forecasts of hourly average wind speed near the Stateline wind energy center

  14. he long-term economic forecast calls for the continuation of the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hemmers, Oliver

    T he long-term economic forecast calls for the continuation of the economic recovery in 2014 predicts a steady economic recovery for Southern Nevada from 2014 onward. The Las Vegas economy-Term Economic Forecast Figure 1: Total Employment (1990-2050) Source: Center for Business and Economic Research

  15. Employment Forecasts for Ohio's Primary Metals Manufacturing and Administrative and Support Services Industries

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Illinois at Chicago, University of

    that are outperforming the industry average. Additional research shows that the industry is reactive to manufacturingEmployment Forecasts for Ohio's Primary Metals Manufacturing and Administrative and Support, the primary metals manufacturing industry (NAICS 331000) employment in Ohio is forecasted to decline by 21

  16. Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone Vivien Mallet1 21 September 2006. [1] The potential of ensemble techniques to improve ozone forecasts ozone-monitoring networks. We found that several linear combinations of models have the potential

  17. Improvements in wind speed forecasts for wind power prediction purposes using Kalman filtering

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Improvements in wind speed forecasts for wind power prediction purposes using Kalman filtering P : 10.1016/j.jweia.2008.03.013 #12;2 Abstract This paper studies the application of Kalman filtering forecasts. The application of Kalman filter to these data leads to the elimination of any possible

  18. Forecasting change of the magnetic field using core surface flows and ensemble Kalman filtering

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forecasting change of the magnetic field using core surface flows and ensemble Kalman filtering C-based observatories. We therefore present a method using Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF) to produce an optimal (2009), Forecasting change of the magnetic field using core surface flows and ensemble Kalman filtering

  19. Model bias correction for dust storm forecast using ensemble Kalman filter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Model bias correction for dust storm forecast using ensemble Kalman filter Caiyan Lin,1,2 Jiang Zhu Kalman filter (EnKF) assimilation targeting heavy dust episodes during the period of 15­24 March 2002. Wang (2008), Model bias correction for dust storm forecast using ensemble Kalman filter, J. Geophys

  20. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. This information is then applied to stitch images together into largermore »views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  1. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 OCTOBER 11, 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting in early August. We have decided to discontinue our individual for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  2. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 1 SEPTEMBER 14, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all are not developing any new tropical cyclones after Earl and Fiona. We expect Earl to generate large amounts of ACE This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting

  3. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 14 SEPTEMBER 27, 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of tropical cyclone activity starting in early August. We have decided to discontinue our individual monthly for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  4. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 14 SEPTEMBER 27, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of tropical cyclone activity starting in early August. We have decided to discontinue our individual monthly for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  5. An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting Shahriar Shafiee a,n

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boisvert, Jeff

    into the relationship between gold price and other key influencing variables, such as oil price and global inflationAn overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting Shahriar Shafiee a,n , Erkan Topal b classification: E31 O13 Q32 Keywords: Historical gold market Forecasting mineral prices Long-term trend reverting

  6. Biennial Assessment of the Fifth Power Plan Interim Report on Electric Price Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    because natural gas fired electric generating plants are on the margin much of the time in Western marketsBiennial Assessment of the Fifth Power Plan Interim Report on Electric Price Forecasts Electricity prices in the Council's Power Plan are forecast using the AURORATM Electricity Market Model of the entire

  7. Reprinted from: Proceedings, International Workshop on Observations/Forecasting of Meso-scale Severe Weather and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    -scale Severe Weather and Technology of Reduction of Relevant Disasters (Tokyo, Japan), 22-26 February 1993, 181 technology and powerful workstation approaches in the forecasting workplace. Training and education leading to the weather events should form the basis for any scientific approaches to forecasting those

  8. Advanced statistical methods for shortterm wind power forecasting Research proposal draft

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barnett, Alex

    Barnett July 2001 1 Background Over the last decade wind power has become a cost­effective alternative at a turbine) using linear or nonlinear time­series analysis (Alex­ iadis 1999), or 2) forecasting windAdvanced statistical methods for short­term wind power forecasting Research proposal draft Alex

  9. Volatility Forecasts in Financial Time Series with HMM-GARCH Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Yiling

    Volatility Forecasts in Financial Time Series with HMM-GARCH Models Xiong-Fei Zhuang and Lai {xfzhuang,lwchan}@cse.cuhk.edu.hk Abstract. Nowadays many researchers use GARCH models to generate of the two parameters G1 and A1[1], in GARCH models is usually too high. Since volatility forecasts in GARCH

  10. Forecasting the Hourly Ontario Energy Price by Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cañizares, Claudio A.

    1 Forecasting the Hourly Ontario Energy Price by Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines H. In this paper, the MARS technique is applied to forecast the hourly Ontario energy price (HOEP). The MARS models values of the latest pre- dispatch price and demand information, made available by the Ontario

  11. 1 Ozone pollution forecasting 3 Herve Cardot, Christophe Crambes and Pascal Sarda.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Crambes, Christophe

    Contents 1 Ozone pollution forecasting 3 Herv´e Cardot, Christophe Crambes and Pascal Sarda. 1;1 Ozone pollution forecasting using conditional mean and conditional quantiles with functional covariates Herv´e Cardot, Christophe Crambes and Pascal Sarda. 1.1 Introduction Prediction of Ozone pollution

  12. 6.9 A NEW APPROACH TO FIRE WEATHER FORECASTING AT THE TULSA WFO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    6.9 A NEW APPROACH TO FIRE WEATHER FORECASTING AT THE TULSA WFO Sarah J. Taylor* and Eric D. Howieson NOAA/National Weather Service Tulsa, Oklahoma 1. INTRODUCTION The modernization of the National then providesthemeteorologistanopportunitytoadjustmodel forecasts for local biases and terrain effects. The Tulsa, Oklahoma WFO has been a test office

  13. ANN-based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cañizares, Claudio A.

    ANN-based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets Hong Chen Claudio A. Ca~nizares Ajit1 Abstract--This paper proposes an Artificial Neu- ral Network (ANN)-based short-term load forecasting, electricity markets, spot prices, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) I. Introduction Short

  14. Optimization of an artificial neural network dedicated to the multivariate forecasting of daily global radiation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Optimization of an artificial neural network dedicated to the multivariate forecasting of daily Ajaccio, France Abstract. This paper presents an application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) which are a popular artificial intelligence technique in the forecasting

  15. Short Term Hourly Load Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Physical Sciences, Research Institute, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi for forecasting next-day hourly loads have been developed. Evaluated on data for the 6th year, the models give. INTRODUCTION Accurate load forecasting is a key requirement for the planning and economic and secure operation

  16. Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da products Supercomputer Facilities DSA/CPTEC-INPE Monitoring products based on remote sensing Training products Numerical Forecast Products Weather discussion Colleting data platform #12;Atmospheric Chemistry

  17. THE PREV AIR SYSTEM, AN OPERATIONAL SYSTEM FOR LARGE SCALE AIR QUALITY FORECASTS OVER EUROPE; APPLICATIONS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    THE PREV AIR SYSTEM, AN OPERATIONAL SYSTEM FOR LARGE SCALE AIR QUALITY FORECASTS OVER EUROPE Author ABSTRACT Since Summer 2003, the PREV'AIR system has been delivering through the Internet1 daily air quality forecasts over Europe. This is the visible part of a wider collaborative project

  18. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  19. Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xie, Jinxing

    in manufacturing planning and control. The quality of the master production schedule (MPS) can significantly managers optimize their production plans by selecting more reasonable forecasting methods and scheduling forecasting, order entry and production planning activities on the one hand, and the detailed planning

  20. Development and Demonstration of a Relocatable Ocean OSSE System: Optimizing Ocean Observations for Hurricane Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecasts for individual storms and improved seasonal forecast of the ocean thermal energy availableDevelopment and Demonstration of a Relocatable Ocean OSSE System: Optimizing Ocean Observations in the Gulf of Mexico is being extended to provide NOAA the ability to evaluate new ocean observing systems

  1. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System Phase 4 report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.; Hadder, G.R.; Leiby, P.N.; Lee, R.; Davis, R.M.

    1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of Navy's Maritime Strategy is designed to maintain military readiness and the ability to operate in all major theaters of the world. Mobility fuels required for sea, air, and land operations are vital components of the Navy's peacetime and wartime strategies. The purpose of the Navy's Mobility Fuels Technology Program is to understand fuel supply and fuel property impacts on Navy equipment performance and fleet readiness and operations. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has assisted the Department of Navy in developing and testing a methodology for forecasting mobility fuel availability, quality, and relative price, as well as evaluating options to increase fuel supplies during world oil supply disruptions. Publicly available models developed by the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy were selected as the foundation of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System (NMFFS). The NMFFS was enhanced as ORNL reviewed data on world oil reserves, production and prices, trends in crude oil and refined product quality, and changes in refinery process technology. The system was used to analyze the availability, quality, and relative price of military fuels that could be produced in several domestic and foreign refining regions under Business-As-Usual (BAU) and two hypothetical world crude oil disruption scenarios in the year 1995. 25 refs., 11 figs., 29 tabs.

  2. TOWARD RELIABLE BENCHMARKING OF SOLAR FLARE FORECASTING METHODS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bloomfield, D. Shaun; Higgins, Paul A.; Gallagher, Peter T. [Astrophysics Research Group, School of Physics, Trinity College Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2 (Ireland); McAteer, R. T. James, E-mail: shaun.bloomfield@tcd.ie [Department of Astronomy, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003-8001 (United States)

    2012-03-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X-ray flares and McIntosh group classifications from solar cycles 21 and 22 to calculate average flare rates for each McIntosh class and use these to determine Poisson probabilities for different flare magnitudes. Forecast verification measures are studied to find optimum thresholds to convert Poisson flare probabilities into yes/no predictions of cycle 23 flares. A case is presented to adopt the true skill statistic (TSS) as a standard for forecast comparison over the commonly used Heidke skill score (HSS). In predicting flares over 24 hr, the maximum values of TSS achieved are 0.44 (C-class), 0.53 (M-class), 0.74 (X-class), 0.54 ({>=}M1.0), and 0.46 ({>=}C1.0). The maximum values of HSS are 0.38 (C-class), 0.27 (M-class), 0.14 (X-class), 0.28 ({>=}M1.0), and 0.41 ({>=}C1.0). These show that Poisson probabilities perform comparably to some more complex prediction systems, but the overall inaccuracy highlights the problem with using average values to represent flaring rate distributions.

  3. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  4. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred [ORNL

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  5. FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann*, Hashini Wickramarathne*, Hans Georg Beyer +

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev HeinemannH, Spicherer Straße 48, D-86157 Augsburg, Germany ABSTRACT: The contribution of power production by PV systems and evaluate an approach to forecast regional PV power production. The forecast quality was investigated

  6. J2.6 A SPATIAL DATA MINING APPROACH FOR VERIFICATION AND UNDERSTANDING OF ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION FORECASTING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gruenwald, Le

    FORECASTING Xuechao Yu* 1,2 and Ming Xue 2,3 1 NOAA/NWS/WDTB Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale is placed on meso- scale ensemble forecasting in recent years [e.g., the Storm and Mesoscale Ensemble complicated for mesoscale quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), since QPF is a discontinuous field. Em

  7. Development and Evaluation of a Coupled Photosynthesis-Based Gas Exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Niyogi, Dev

    (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications DEV NIYOGI Department of Agronomy, and Department form 13 May 2008) ABSTRACT Current land surface schemes used for mesoscale weather forecast models use model (GEM) as a land surface scheme for mesoscale weather forecasting model applications. The GEM

  8. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  9. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  10. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  11. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  12. The Impact of Non-Gaussianity upon Cosmological Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Repp, Andrew; Carron, Julien; Wolk, Melody

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The primary science driver for 3D galaxy surveys is their potential to constrain cosmological parameters. Forecasts of these surveys' effectiveness typically assume Gaussian statistics for the underlying matter density, despite the fact that the actual distribution is decidedly non-Gaussian. To quantify the effect of this assumption, we employ an analytic expression for the power spectrum covariance matrix to calculate the Fisher information for BAO-type model surveys. We find that for typical number densities, at $k_\\mathrm{max} = 0.5 h$ Mpc$^{-1}$, Gaussian assumptions significantly overestimate the information on all parameters considered, in some cases by up to an order of magnitude. However, after marginalizing over a six-parameter set, the form of the covariance matrix (dictated by $N$-body simulations) causes the majority of the effect to shift to the "amplitude-like" parameters, leaving the others virtually unaffected. We find that Gaussian assumptions at such wavenumbers can underestimate the dark en...

  13. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system. Phase II, report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Vineyard, T.A.; Das, S.; Lee, R.

    1986-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of the Navy (DON) requires an improved capability to forecast mobility fuel availability and quality. The changing patterns in fuel availability and quality are important in planning the Navy's fuel use strategy and the Mobility Fuels Technology Program. Until recently, there has been a long-term decline in the quality of crude oil entering world markets and a shift in refinery capacities domestically and worldwide. Three publicly available models developed by the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy were selected as the basis of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System (NMFFS). The system was used to analyze the availability and quality of jet fuel (JP-5) and diesel fuel (F-76) that could be produced in several domestic and foreign refinery regions under business-as-usual and four hypothetical world crude oil disruption scenarios in 1990. The results from the study indicate that jet fuel availability could be reduced in some refinery regions under the disruptions studied. Various strategies were investigated for increasing JP-5 production during the disruptions. In general, the availability of JP-5 was more limited than F-76 under the disruption cases studied; however, in all cases one or more strategies were identified to increase refinery output of JP-5 in all study regions. Based on the four hypothetical disruption scenarios studied, the analysis suggested tat JP-5 production could be increased by relaxing the smoke point, freezing point, flash point, and by increasing the refiners' gate price for the jet fuel in the study regions. A more complete analysis of navy mobility fuel trends, as well as several changes in the models to make them easier to use in fuel planning and forecastig studies, are planned as part of the third phase of this program.

  14. Endovascular Stent-Graft Repair as a Late Secondary Procedure After Previous Aortic Grafts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Matsagas, Miltiadis I. [School of Medicine, University of Ioannina, Department of Surgery - Vascular Surgery Unit (Greece)], E-mail: mimats@cc.uoi.gr; Anagnostopoulos, Constantine E. [School of Medicine, University of Ioannina, Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery (Greece); Papakostas, John C. [School of Medicine, University of Ioannina, Department of Surgery - Vascular Surgery Unit (Greece); DeRose, Joseph J. [St. Luke's-Roosevelt Hospital, Columbia University, Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery (United States); Siminelakis, Stavros [School of Medicine, University of Ioannina, Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery (Greece); Katsouras, Christos S. [School of Medicine, University of Ioannina, Department of Cardiology (Greece); Toumpoulis, Ioannis K.; Drossos, George E. [School of Medicine, University of Ioannina, Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery (Greece); Michalis, Lampros K. [School of Medicine, University of Ioannina, Department of Cardiology (Greece)

    2006-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Thoracic and abdominal aortic endovascular procedures as alternatives to aortic reoperations were studied in three different cases. An anastomotic aneurysm after previous thoracic aortic graft for coarctation, a second-stage elephant trunk repair (descending thoracic aortic aneurysm), and a secondary aneurysm proximal to a previous abdominal aortic graft were successfully treated with endovascular stent-grafts. During the follow-up period no lethal events or major aortic or graft-related complications were observed, except a type II endoleak in the anastomotic aortic aneurysm case. An endovascular stent-graft can be safely deployed into a previously implanted vascular graft, avoiding repeat surgery.

  15. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  16. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    typically required. You can also watch archived webinars and browse previously aired videos, slides, and transcripts. Upcoming Webinars February 13: Live Webinar to Solicit Input...

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Northern Study Area.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

    2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

  18. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  19. The Peloton Approach : forecasting and strategic planning for emerging technologies : a case for RFID

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thuvara, Vineet

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The RFID industry is going through a sea of change and at different levels within the industry. Forecasts have been done on different facets of the RFID/EPC industry like the market size or the possible financial returns. ...

  20. NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Guebuem

    NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power Yuewei of these modeling technologies w.r.t. wind energy applications. Then I'll discuss wind farm

  1. The Incremental Benefits of the Nearest Neighbor Forecast of U.S. Energy Commodity Prices 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kudoyan, Olga

    2012-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis compares the simple Autoregressive (AR) model against the k- Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) model to make a point forecast of five energy commodity prices. Those commodities are natural gas, heating oil, gasoline, ethanol, and crude oil...

  2. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  3. Calibration of a Distributed Flood Forecasting Model with Input Uncertainty Using a Bayesian Framework

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hubbard, Susan

    Calibration of a Distributed Flood Forecasting Model with Input Uncertainty Using a Bayesian, Berkeley, CA, United States. In the process of calibrating distributed hydrological models, accounting in calibrating GBHM parameters and in estimating their associated uncertainty. The calibration ignoring input

  4. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) web site. Wein the past, compared the EIA’s reference case long-termgas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded

  5. Emissions of crustal material in air quality forecast systems: Use of satellite observations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menut, Laurent

    Emissions of crustal material in air quality forecast systems: Use of satellite observations) Natural (dust, fires, volcanos) Meteorology: Transport, turbulence Clouds and radiation, precipitations Chemistry-transport model Gas and particles concentrations Use of model outputs: Analysis Direct: model vs

  6. Absolute Percent Error Based Fitness Functions for Evolving Forecast Models AndyNovobilski,Ph.D.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Thomas

    Absolute Percent Error Based Fitness Functions for Evolving Forecast Models Andy computfi~gas a methodof data mining,is its intrinsic ability to drive modelselection accordingto a mixedset of criteria. Basedon natural selection, evolutionary computing utilizes evaluationof candidatesolutions

  7. A forecasting model of tourist arrivals from major markets to Thailand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hao, Ching

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    important to forecast tourism demand in the region and understand the factors affecting demand. Considering the national importance of tourism, Thailand was chosen as the destination country with nine major markets as the countries of origin. A model...

  8. Probabilistic Performance Forecasting for Unconventional Reservoirs With Stretched-Exponential Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Can, Bunyamin

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    a reserves-evaluation workflow that couples the traditional decline-curve analysis with a probabilistic forecasting frame. The stretched-exponential production decline model (SEPD) underpins the production behavior. Our recovery appraisal workflow...

  9. Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    of difficulties to the power system operation. This is due to the fluctuating nature of wind generation to the management of wind generation. Accurate and reliable forecasting systems of the wind production are widely

  10. Air-Conditioning Effect Estimation for Mid-Term Forecasts of Tunisian Electricity Consumption

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Air-Conditioning Effect Estimation for Mid-Term Forecasts of Tunisian Electricity Consumption Tunisian electricity consumption (the residential sector represents 68% of this class of consumers). Nevertheless, with the Tunisian electricity consumption context, models elaborating which take account weather

  11. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and validation.   Solar Energy.   73:5, 307? Perez, R. , irradiance forecasts for solar energy applications based on using satellite data.   Solar Energy 67:1?3, 139?150.  

  12. Forecasting the S&P 500 index using time series analysis and simulation methods

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chan, Eric Glenn

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The S&P 500 represents a diverse pool of securities in addition to Large Caps. A range of audiences are interested in the S&P 500 forecasts including investors, speculators, economists, government and researchers. The ...

  13. Freeway Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting by Considering Traffic Volatility Dynamics and Missing Data Situations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Yanru

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    , assuming constant variance when perform forecasting. This method does not consider the volatility nature of traffic flow data. This paper demonstrated that the variance part of traffic flow data is not constant, and dependency exists. A volatility model...

  14. Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newton, Nathan J.

    2013-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

    of the auditor affects 3 analyst forecast characteristics (Behn et al. 2008), or how the presence of an analyst following affects auditor decisions (Keune and Johnstone 2012). However, these studies do not specifically examine how auditors use information...

  15. Comparison of Various Deterministic Forecasting Techniques in Shale Gas Reservoirs with Emphasis on the Duong Method

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Joshi, Krunal Jaykant

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    There is a huge demand in the industry to forecast production in shale gas reservoirs accurately. There are many methods including volumetric, Decline Curve Analysis (DCA), analytical simulation and numerical simulation. Each one of these methods...

  16. AIR QUALITY ENSEMBLE FORECAST COUPLING ARPEGE AND CHIMERE OVER WESTERN EUROPE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menut, Laurent

    AIR QUALITY ENSEMBLE FORECAST COUPLING ARPEGE AND CHIMERE OVER WESTERN EUROPE Carvalho of the results encountered on numerical weather prediction ensemble runs has encouraged the air quality modellers' community to test the same methodology to foresee air pollutants concentrations

  17. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    transport and  numerical weather modeling.   J.  Applied cross correlations.    Weather and Forecasting, 8:4, 401?of radiation for numerical weather prediction and climate 

  18. Application of Fast Marching Methods for Rapid Reservoir Forecast and Uncertainty Quantification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olalotiti-Lawal, Feyisayo

    2013-05-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Rapid economic evaluations of investment alternatives in the oil and gas industry are typically contingent on fast and credible evaluations of reservoir models to make future forecasts. It is often important to also quantify inherent risks...

  19. Developing a framework for dependable demand forecasts in the consumer packaged goods industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Uriarte, Daniel Antonio

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As a consumer packaged goods company, "Company X" manufactures products "make-to-stock"; therefore, having reliable demand forecasts is fundamental for successful planning and execution. Not isolated to "Company X" or to ...

  20. Modification of the pattern informatics method for forecasting large earthquake events using complex eigenvectors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Holliday, J R; Klein, B; Rundle, J B; Tiampo, K F

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Recent studies have shown that real-valued principal component analysis can be applied to earthquake fault systems for forecasting and prediction. In addition, theoretical analysis indicates that earthquake stresses may obey a wave-like equation, having solutions with inverse frequencies for a given fault similar to those that characterize the time intervals between the largest events on the fault. It is therefore desirable to apply complex principal component analysis to develop earthquake forecast algorithms. In this paper we modify the Pattern Informatics method of earthquake forecasting to take advantage of the wave-like properties of seismic stresses and utilize the Hilbert transform to create complex eigenvectors out of measured time series. We show that Pattern Informatics analyses using complex eigenvectors create short-term forecast hot-spot maps that differ from hot-spot maps created using only real-valued data and suggest methods of analyzing the differences and calculating the information gain.

  1. Forecasting project progress and early warning of project overruns with probabilistic methods

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Byung Cheol

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    project schedule progress with probabilistic methods. Currently available methods, for example, the critical path method (CPM) and earned value management (EVM) are deterministic and fail to account for the inherent uncertainty in forecasting and project...

  2. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL PMEL-114 Offshore forecasting of Hawaiian tsunamis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Disaster Center (PDC). The activity included analytical and nu- merical sensitivity studies of tsunami wave the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) with tsunami forecasting capabilities. PDC is a joint Department of Defense

  3. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  4. Developing a model for explaining and forecasting international tourist arrivals from the major markets to Malaysia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chin, Loi Young

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to forecast the potential of tourism in the region and understand the factors behind such growth. Malaysia was chosen as the destination country with nine major markets as the countries of origin. The nine countries selected were geographically dispersed over...

  5. Validation of the Highway Performance Monitoring System for forecasting levels of traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bray, Rebecca Anne

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis documents the results and studies conducted when determining the accuracy of the Texas Department of Transportation (TXDOT) methodology of forecasting future levels of traffic demand. The data that was used was the Federal Highway...

  6. Forecasting the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index futures price: interest rates, dividend yields, and cointegration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fritsch, Roger Erwin

    1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    forward price series is constructed using interest rate and dividend yield data. Out-of-sample forecasts from error correction models are compared to those from vector autoregressions (VAR) fit to levels and VARs fit to first differences. This comparison...

  7. A supply forecasting model for Zimbabwe's corn sector: a time series and structural analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Makaudze, Ephias

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Zimbabwean government utilizes the corn supply forecasts to establish producer prices for the following growing season, estimate corn storage and handling costs, project corn import needs and associated costs, and to assess the Grain Marketing...

  8. The Incremental Benefits of the Nearest Neighbor Forecast of U.S. Energy Commodity Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kudoyan, Olga

    2012-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis compares the simple Autoregressive (AR) model against the k- Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) model to make a point forecast of five energy commodity prices. Those commodities are natural gas, heating oil, gasoline, ethanol, and crude oil...

  9. Tradeoff between Investments in Infrastructure and Forecasting when Facing Natural Disaster Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Seong D.

    2010-07-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Hurricane Katrina of 2005 was responsible for at least 81 billion dollars of property damage. In planning for such emergencies, society must decide whether to invest in the ability to evacuate more speedily or in improved forecasting technology...

  10. Efficient market model: within-sample fit versus out-of-sample forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cheng, Chi

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    has been the center of considerable attention in the applied econometric literature. The criterion Predictive Least Squares (PLS) based on actual postsample forecasting performance is proposed to identify a time series model. The criterion is applied...

  11. Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

    2008-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

  12. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  13. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  14. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  15. Forecasting clear-air turbulence within sub-layers of the stratosphere by discriminant function analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Clark, Terry Lee

    1974-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    FORECASTING CLEAR-AIR TURBULENCE WITHIN SUB-LAYERS OF THE STRATOSPHERE BY DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION ANALYSIS A Thesis by TERRY LEE CLARK Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirement... for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE December 1974 Major Subject: Meteorology FORECASTING CLEAR-AIR TURBULENCE WITHIN SUB-LAYERS OF THE STRATOSPHERE BY DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION ANALYSIS A Thesis by TERRY LEE CLARK Approved as to style and content by...

  16. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  17. Predictability of ECMWF 5-day forecasts over the contiguous United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Netterville, Lee Samuel

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    PREDICTABILITY OF ECMWF 5-DAY FORECASTS OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES A Thesis by LEE SAMUEL NETTERVILLE Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas AaM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree... of MASTER OF SCIENCE December 1991 Major Subject: Meteorology PREDICTABILITY OF ECMWF 5-DAY FORECASTS OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES A Thesis by LEE SAMUEL NETTERVILLE Approved as to style and content by: Duson Djuric (Chair of Committee) pw...

  18. Forecasting the monthly volume of orders for southern pine lumber - an econometric model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jackson, Ben Douglas

    1973-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the orders estimates should be minimal, and the benefits of forecasting should exceed the costs. Included in this matter of convenience is the mathematical simplicity of the computations and their evaluation. With these essential characteristics in mind... FORECASTING THE MONTHLY VOLUME OF ORDERS FOR SOUTHERN PINE LUMBER - AH ECONOMETRIC MODEL A Thesis by BEN DOUGLAS JACKSON Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in Partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree...

  19. An adaptive neural network approach to one-week ahead load forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, T.M. (Pacific Gas and Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (United States)); Hubele, N.F.; Karady, G.G. (Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States))

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A new neural network approach is applied to one-week ahead load forecasting. This approach uses a linear adaptive neuron or adaptive linear combiner called Adaline.'' An energy spectrum is used to analyze the periodic components in a load sequence. The load sequence mainly consists of three components: base load component, and low and high frequency load components. Each load component has a unique frequency range. Load decomposition is made for the load sequence using digital filters with different passband frequencies. After load decomposition, each load component can be forecasted by an Adaline. Each Adaline has an input sequence, an output sequence, and a desired response-signal sequence. It also has a set of adjustable parameters called the weight vector. In load forecasting, the weight vector is designed to make the output sequence, the forecasted load, follow the actual load sequence; it also has a minimized Least Mean Square error. This approach is useful in forecasting unit scheduling commitments. Mean absolute percentage errors of less than 3.4 percent are derived from five months of utility data, thus demonstrating the high degree of accuracy that can be obtained without dependence on weather forecasts.

  20. Charged-Particle Thermonuclear Reaction Rates: IV. Comparison to Previous Work

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Christian Iliadis; Richard Longland; Art Champagne; Alain Coc

    2010-04-23T23:59:59.000Z

    We compare our Monte Carlo reaction rates (see Paper II of this series) to previous results that were obtained by using the classical method of computing thermonuclear reaction rates. For each reaction, the comparison is presented using two types of graphs: the first shows the change in reaction rate uncertainties, while the second displays our new results normalized to the previously recommended reaction rate. We find that the rates have changed significantly for almost all reactions considered here. The changes are caused by (i) our new Monte Carlo method of computing reaction rates (see Paper I of this series), and (ii) newly available nuclear physics information (see Paper III of this series).

  1. Previous studies have shown that positive affect has numerous health benefits in Western Cultures (Pressman &

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wisconsin at Madison, University of

    Printed by Previous studies have shown that positive affect has numerous health benefits in Western is equally beneficial for health across different cultural contexts. Particularly, in East Asian culture in isolation from social relationships may not be beneficial or even harmful for one's health. (Miyamoto

  2. RADIATION SAFETY OFFICE Campus Radiation Safety Manual UNIVERSITY OF NEW ORLEANS Previous Revision: May 1999

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, X. Rong

    SAFETY OFFICER AND RADIATION PROTECTION STAFF The Radiation Safety Officer has the responsibilityRADIATION SAFETY OFFICE Campus Radiation Safety Manual UNIVERSITY OF NEW ORLEANS Previous Revision radiation safety program will be conducted in such a manner that exposure to faculty, staff, students

  3. Value Proposition: Previous physical limitations of use of the screw pump

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haller-Dintelmann, Robert

    Value Proposition: · Previous physical limitations of use of the screw pump technology do not apply drive Field of Application: The technology is interesting for all pump manufacturers, who supply pumps the functionality of the screw pump State of the art: · Pressure operation limit is function of rotating speed, oil

  4. Constrained Intelligent KMeans: Improving Results with Limited Previous Renato Cordeiro de Amorim

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Amorim, Renato Cordeiro de

    Constrained Intelligent KMeans: Improving Results with Limited Previous Knowledge Renato Cordeiro that the incorporation of these rules in the intelligent kmeans algorithm may increase the accuracy of results limited amount of knowledge of the data. In this paper, firstly the classical Kmeans

  5. Lessons Learned From Previous SSL/TLS Attacks A Brief Chronology Of Attacks And Weaknesses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lessons Learned From Previous SSL/TLS Attacks A Brief Chronology Of Attacks And Weaknesses in 1994 the Secure Socket Layer (SSL) protocol (later renamed to Transport Layer Security (TLS)) evolved to the de facto standard for securing the transport layer. SSL/TLS can be used for ensuring data

  6. Herbivory in the Previous Generation Primes Plants for Enhanced Insect Resistance1[W][OA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Agrawal, Anurag

    Herbivory in the Previous Generation Primes Plants for Enhanced Insect Resistance1[W][OA] Sergio than on control plants, and persisted for two generations in Arabidopsis. Arabidopsis mutants University, Ithaca, New York 14853 (S.R., R.H., A.A.A.); Boyce Thompson Institute for Plant Research, Ithaca

  7. Home Previous Page Odd power: New microbe strain makes more electricity, faster

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lovley, Derek

    Home Previous Page Odd power: New microbe strain makes more electricity, faster Author: Newswise Issue: 8/2009 In their most recent experiments with Geobacter, the sediment-loving microbe whose hairlike filaments help it to produce electric current from mud and wastewater, Derek Lovley and colleagues

  8. Linkage to Previous International PV Module QA Task Force Workshops: Proposal for Rating System

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This PowerPoint presentation, focused on humidity, temperature and voltage testing, was originally presented at the NREL 2013 PV Module Reliability Workshop on Feb. 26-27, 2013 in Denver, CO. It summarizes the efforts of previous QA task forces and proposes a QA rating system to differentiate the relative durability of model designs.

  9. Temperature Difference Leads to Magnetism | Physical Review Focus Previous Story / Volume 28 archive

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wu, Junqiao

    Temperature Difference Leads to Magnetism | Physical Review Focus Previous Story / Volume 28 Leads to Magnetism J. Wu/Univ. of California, Berkeley Heat field. Heating the right edge of an n a magnetic field pointing out of the screen, according to computer simulations. Computer simulations suggest

  10. MI FARM TO SCHOOL GRANTEES 2014-2015 PROGRAM YEAR AND PREVIOUS GRANTEES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MI FARM TO SCHOOL GRANTEES 2014-2015 PROGRAM YEAR AND PREVIOUS GRANTEES FOODSYSTEMS.MSU.EDU 2014-2015 GRANTEES School/ district/ program County Current Grant Years as a grantee A&W Daycare Wayne Planning 1 TO SCHOOL GRANTEES (2011/12 ­ 2013/14) School/ district/ program County Grant Type(s) Grant Years All Aboard

  11. Popular program in Economics, Medicine, ??? The previous versions were command line based.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Irwin, Mark E.

    Stata 1 Stata Popular program in Economics, Medicine, ??? The previous versions were command line, everything can be done from a command line. Somethings have to be done from the command line. Has very good\\Harvard\\Courses\\Stat 104\\93cars.txt", clear When creating commands with Stata, the command you would need to type is given

  12. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Southern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)--Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute – 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 – 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 – 3 hours.

  13. Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Douches, David S.

    Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use have come to expect. Potato late blight risk models were some of the earliest weather-based models. This analysis compares two types of potato late blight risk models that were originally trained on location

  14. A Comparison of Parallel Programming Paradigms and Data Distributions for a Limited Area Numerical Weather Forecast Routine

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Engelen, Robert A.

    . Published in proceedings of the 9 th ACM International Conference on Supercomputing, July 1995, Barcelona for producing routine weather forecasts at several European meteorological institutes. Results are shown

  15. Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 799811 (2003) EGU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting 799 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 799811 (2003) © EGU Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models

  16. Nuclear thermal rocket clustering: 1, A summary of previous work and relevant issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buksa, J.J.; Houts, M.G.

    1991-07-14T23:59:59.000Z

    A general review of the technical merits of nuclear thermal rocket clustering is presented. A summary of previous analyses performed during the Rover program is presented and used to assess clustering in the context of projected Space Exploration Initiative missions. A number of technical issues are discussed including cluster reliability, engine-out operation, neutronic coupling, shutdown core power generation, shutdown reactivity requirements, reactor kinetics, and radiation shielding. 7 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  17. 6: A Second Pumping Theorem The pumping theorem we saw previously was

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Golin, Mordecai J.

    6: A Second Pumping Theorem The pumping theorem we saw previously was: Theorem 1 Let L â?? 0: We can also prove a stronger pumping theorem (Ex. 2.6.4): Theorem 2 Let M = (K; \\Sigma; ffi; s; F. jxyj Ÿ jKj: 3. y 6= e: 4. 8n â?? 0; xy n z 2 L(M ) This second pumping theorem permits us to prove

  18. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  19. C+O detonations in thermonuclear supernovae: Interaction with previously burned material

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. Maier; J. C. Niemeyer

    2006-05-12T23:59:59.000Z

    In the context of explosion models for Type Ia Supernovae, we present one- and two-dimensional simulations of fully resolved detonation fronts in degenerate C+O White Dwarf matter including clumps of previously burned material. The ability of detonations to survive the passage through sheets of nuclear ashes is tested as a function of the width and composition of the ash region. We show that detonation fronts are quenched by microscopically thin obstacles with little sensitivity to the exact ash composition. Front-tracking models for detonations in macroscopic explosion simulations need to include this effect in order to predict the amount of unburned material in delayed detonation scenarios.

  20. NREL Triples Previous Estimates of U.S. Wind Power Potential (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) recently released new estimates of the U.S. potential for wind-generated electricity, using advanced wind mapping and validation techniques to triple previous estimates of the size of the nation's wind resources. The new study, conducted by NREL and AWS TruePower, finds that the contiguous 48 states have the potential to generate up to 37 million gigawatt-hours annually. In comparison, the total U.S. electricity generation from all sources was roughly 4 million gigawatt-hours in 2009.

  1. Previous Programs - Saturday Morning Physics at Texas A&M University

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)IntegratedSpeedingTechnical News, information and graphicPrevious-Agreements Sign2014

  2. The wind power probability density forecast problem can be formulated as: forecast the wind power pdf at time step t for each look-ahead time step t+k of a given time-horizon

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    The wind power probability density forecast problem can be formulated as: forecast the wind power ahead) knowing a set of explanatory variables (e.g. numerical weather predictions (NWPs), wind power measured values). Translating this sentence to an equation, we have: where pt+k is the wind power

  3. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  4. California climate change, hydrologic response, and flood forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, Norman L.

    2003-11-11T23:59:59.000Z

    There is strong evidence that the lower atmosphere has been warming at an unprecedented rate during the last 50 years, and it is expected to further increase at least for the next 100 years. Warmer air mass implies a higher capacity to hold water vapor and an increased likelihood of an acceleration of the global water cycle. This acceleration is not validated and considerable new research has gone into understanding aspects of the water cycle (e.g. Miller et al. 2003). Several significant findings on the hydrologic response to climate change can be reported. It is well understood that the observed and expected warming is related to sea level rise. In a recent seminar at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, James Hansen (Director of the Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration) stressed that a 1.25 Wm{sup -2} increase in radiative forcing will lead to an increase in the near surface air temperature by 1 C. This small increase in temperature from 2000 levels is enough to cause very significant impacts to coasts. Maury Roos (Chief Hydrologist, California Department of Water Resources) has shown that a 0.3 m rise in sea level shifts the San Francisco Bay 100-year storm surge flood event to a 10-year event. Related coastal protection costs for California based on sea level rise are shown. In addition to rising sea level, snowmelt-related streamflow represents a particular problem in California. Model studies have indicated that there will be approximately a 50% decrease in snow pack by 2100. This potential deficit must be fully recognized and plans need to be put in place well in advance. In addition, the warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor and result in more intense warm winter-time precipitation events that result in flooding. During anticipated high flow, reservoirs need to release water to maintain their structural integrity. California is at risk of water shortages, floods, and related ecosystem stresses. More research needs to be done to further improve our ability to forecast weather events at longer time scales. Seasonal predictions have been statistical and only recently have studies begun to use ensemble simulations and historical observations to constrain such predictions. Understanding the mechanisms of large-scale atmospheric dynamics and its local impacts remain topics of intensive research. The ability to predict extreme events and provide policy makers with this information, along with climate change and hydrologic response information, will help to guide planning to form a more resilient infrastructure in the future.

  5. Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods This article has been downloaded from IOPscience. Please scroll down to see the full text article.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods This article has been Contact us My IOPscience #12;Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods uncertainty (and energy imbalances). Wind power ensemble predictions are derived from the transformation

  6. Stretched Exponential Decline Model as a Probabilistic and Deterministic Tool for Production Forecasting and Reserve Estimation in Oil and Gas Shales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Akbarnejad Nesheli, Babak

    2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

    stabilized production forecast than traditional DCA models and in this work it is shown that it produces unchanging EUR forecasts after only two-three years of production data are available in selected reservoirs, notably the Barnett Shale...

  7. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  8. An Investigation of the Dynamics of Forecast Errors and Its Representation in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Herrera, Michael Aaron

    2014-12-03T23:59:59.000Z

    Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE).We find that the operational ensembles included in the TIGGE data set are highly efficient in capturing the space and magnitude of forecast uncertainties past about 72 hour forecast lead time. We also find that our...

  9. European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind Generation by a Dynamic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind. Abstract-Short-term wind power forecasting is recognized nowadays as a major requirement for a secure and economic integration of wind power in a power system. In the case of large-scale integration, end users

  10. Abstract--Forecasting of future electricity demand is very important for decision making in power system operation and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ducatelle, Frederick

    Abstract--Forecasting of future electricity demand is very important for decision making in power industry, accurate forecasting of future electricity demand has become an important research area for secure operation, management of modern power systems and electricity production in the power generation

  11. Paper presented at EWEC 2008, Brussels, Belgium (31 March-03 April) Uncertainty Estimation of Wind Power Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    -Antipolis, France Abstract--Short-term wind power forecasting tools providing "single-valued" (spot) predictions associated to the future wind power produc- tion for performing more efficiently functions such as reserves and modelling architec- tures for probabilistic wind power forecasting. Then, a comparison is carried out

  12. Forecasting Gas Production in Organic Shale with the Combined Numerical Simulation of Gas Diffusion in Kerogen, Langmuir Desorption from

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Torres-Verdín, Carlos

    SPE 159250 Forecasting Gas Production in Organic Shale with the Combined Numerical Simulation algorithm to forecast gas production in organic shale that simultaneously takes into account gas diffusion-than-expected permeability in shale-gas formations, while Langmuir desorption maintains pore pressure. Simulations confirm

  13. Benchmarking of different approaches to forecast solar irradiance Elke Lorenz1, Wolfgang Traunmller2, Gerald Steinmaurer2, Christian Kurz3,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Benchmarking of different approaches to forecast solar irradiance Elke Lorenz1, Wolfgang and operation strategies. Due to the strong increase of solar power generation the prediction of solar yields and companies have been developing different methods to forecast irradiance as a basis for respective power

  14. Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN SLOUGHTER, ADRIAN E. RAFTERY, TILMANN GNEITING, AND CHRIS FRALEY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN SLOUGHTER, ADRIAN E. RAFTERY, TILMANN GNEITING, AND CHRIS FRALEY Department of Statistics, University of precipitation (PoP) forecasts using this approach. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) was introduced by Raftery et

  15. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  16. Application of neural networking in live cattle futures market: an approach to price-forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chou, Chien-Ju

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    APPLICATION OF NEURAL NETWORKING IN LIVE CATTLE FUTURES MARKET: AN APPROACH TO PRICE-FORECASTING A Thesis by CHIEN-JU CHOU Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas ARM University in partial fulfilhnent of the requirements... for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE August 1993 Major Subject: Animal Science APPLICATION OF NEURAL NETWORKING IN LIVE CATTLE FUTURES MARKET: AN APPROACH TO PRICE-FORECASTING A Thesis by CHIBN-JU CHOU Approved as to style and content by: John P. Walter...

  17. FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Erie

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake. The in- crease in computer power in recent years and advances in numerical mesoscale models of both ocean Forecasting System (GLCFS) can be used to validate wind forecasts for the Great Lakes using observed

  18. MPC for Wind Power Gradients --Utilizing Forecasts, Rotor Inertia, and Central Energy Storage

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MPC for Wind Power Gradients -- Utilizing Forecasts, Rotor Inertia, and Central Energy Storage define an extremely low power output gradient and demonstrate how decentralized energy storage conservative bids on the power market. Energy storage strikes the major problems of wind power and joining

  19. Bivariate Splines for Hurricane Path Forecasting Bree Ettinger and Ming-Jun Lai

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lai, Ming-Jun

    Bivariate Splines for Hurricane Path Forecasting Bree Ettinger and Ming-Jun Lai 1 Introduction Every year, hurricanes cause a lot of damage, especially, when they hit cities along the coast line. A notorious example is Hurricane Katrina in 2005 which hit New Orleans and damaged the city significantly

  20. NUMERICAL FORECAST OF THE MELTING AND THERMAL HISTORIES OF PARTICLES INJECTED IN A PLASMA JET

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    NUMERICAL FORECAST OF THE MELTING AND THERMAL HISTORIES OF PARTICLES INJECTED IN A PLASMA JET Jorge devices. Among the different coating systems, the thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) are commonly used to protect hardware operating in high temperature environments, such as combustor liners and gas turbine