National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for forecast period notes

  1. Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Notes Notes Accomodations at Argonne The Argonne contact person for the NUG Meeting is Mike Minkoff of the Mathematics and Computer Science Division. His phone number is (630) 252-7234. Last edited: 2011-04-01 11:41

  2. Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Notes Notes ERSUG Meeting Summary Notes, November 15, 1999 Here are some highlights from the discussions (excepting the items contributed by ERSUG Chair, Bas Bramms below): During the state of NERSC presentation by Jim Craw a primary topic of discussion was the issue of the processing capabilities of the PVP cluster. Since the upgrade of the batch system processors to SV1s, some concern has been expressed about the relatively poorer processing capabilities of the J90SE processors on the

  3. Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Notes Notes Why the June 1995 ERSUG Meeting is Important Bill McCurdy describes below a competitive process through which a decision will be made by MICS Division (formerly the OSC) in the June, 1995 timeframe to: (1) possibly move NERSC to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and (2) redefine to some extent the mission of the Center. All of this would be effected within a significantly reduced cost envelope. The LLNL proposal to keep NERSC where it is and the LBL proposal may soon be

  4. Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Notes Notes Live Media Streaming via RealPlayer Media streaming of these lectures will be provided via RealPlayer. Users of Windows- or Macintosh-based computers will be able to see and hear the presentation by way of the following procedures. 1. Download and open the slide files onto your computer. 2. Make certain you have the current version of RealPlayer installed. These are available at the Real Free Player Download web site 3. Start the RealPlayer application, and then enter the following

  5. Table 8.12a Electric Noncoincident Peak Load and Capacity Margin: Summer Peak Period, 1986-2011 (Megawatts, Except as Noted)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a Electric Noncoincident Peak Load and Capacity Margin: Summer Peak Period, 1986-2011 (Megawatts, Except as Noted) Year Noncoincident Peak Load 1 by North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) 2 Regional Assessment Area Capacity Margin 21 (percent) Eastern Interconnection ERCOT 4 Western Inter- connection All Inter- connections FRCC 5 NPCC 6 Balance of Eastern Region 3 ECAR 7,8 MAAC 8,9 MAIN 8,10 MAPP 11 MISO 12 MRO 13 PJM 14 RFC 8,15 SERC 16 SPP 17 Subtotal TRE 18 WECC 19 Total 20

  6. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  7. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    c3 Alexander Williams FROM: Ed Mitchellcm SUBJECT: Babcock and Wilcox Elimination Recommendation The purpose of this note is to provide you with certain inf regarding the ...

  8. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    941 OTS NOTE DATE: July 2, 1990 TO: W. Alexander Williams FROM : Don Mackenzie d%? SUBJECT: Elimination of 3 Facilities from NSRAP . + 9 Enclosed are elimination recommendations...

  9. Blue Note

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Murray Gibson

    2010-01-08

    Argonne's Murray Gibson is a physicist whose life's work includes finding patterns among atoms. The love of distinguishing patterns also drives Gibson as a musician and Blues enthusiast."Blue" notes are very harmonic notes that are missing from the equal temperament scale.The techniques of piano blues and jazz represent the melding of African and Western music into something totally new and exciting.

  10. Blue Note

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Murray Gibson

    2007-04-27

    Argonne's Murray Gibson is a physicist whose life's work includes finding patterns among atoms. The love of distinguishing patterns also drives Gibson as a musician and Blues enthusiast."Blue" notes are very harmonic notes that are missing from the equal temperament scale.The techniques of piano blues and jazz represent the melding of African and Western music into something totally new and exciting.

  11. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  12. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications » Market Studies » LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030. With declining costs and improving performance, LED products have been seeing increased adoption for general illumination applications. This is a positive development in terms of energy consumption, as LEDs use significantly

  13. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  14. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 -0.9% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $424 3.9% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,992 2,082 4.5% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.37 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $371 $382 3.0% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,371 2,497 5.3% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  15. Regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a quasi-operational forecasting environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zupanski, M. )

    1993-08-01

    Four-dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to a regional forecast model as part of the development of a new data assimilation system at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The assimilation employs an operational version of the NMC's new regional forecast model defined in eta vertical coordinates, and data used are operationally produced optimal interpolation (OI) analyses (using the first guess from the NMC's global spectral model), available every 3 h. Humidity and parameterized processes are not included in the adjoint model integration. The calculation of gradients by the adjoint model is approximate since the forecast model is used in its full-physics operational form. All experiments are over a 12-h assimilation period with subsequent 48-h forecast. Three different types of assimilation experiments are performed: (a) adjustment of initial conditions only (standard [open quotes]adjoint[close quotes] approach), (b) adjustment of a correction to the model equations only (variational continuous assimilation), and (c) simultaneous or sequential adjustment of both initial conditions and the correction term. Results indicate significantly better results when the correction term is included in the assimilation. It is shown, for a single case, that the new technique [experiment (c)] is able to produce a forecast better than the current conventional OI assimilation. It is very important to note that these results are obtained with an approximate gradient, calculated from a simplified adjoint model. Thus, it may be possible to perform an operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation of realistic forecast models, even before more complex adjoint models are developed. Also, the results suggest that it may be possible to reduce the large computational cost of assimilation by using only a few iterations of the minimization algorithm. This fast convergence is encouraging from the prospective of operational use. 37 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  16. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  17. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  18. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  19. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  20. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods

  1. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  2. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  3. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the integration cost of high levels of solar energy into the electricity grid. This will help SunShot to assess current technology and practices in this field and identify the gaps and needs for further research.

  4. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable.

  5. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  6. Notes for Visualization Requirememnts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Notes for Vis Requirements Notes for Visualization Requirememnts Notes from June 5, 2002, Visualization Requirements for DOE-Sponsored Computational Science and Engineering Applications A DOE Workshop to Be Held 
at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,
Berkeley, California, June 5, 2002 Workshop Co-organizers: Bernd Hamann 
University of California-Davis Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. E. Wes Bethel 
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. Horst D. Simon
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab.

  7. Meeting Summary Notes

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    records check list: Information that should be requested by SOMD of receiving facility Medical records: Problem list: list of all past and current medical diagnosis and surgical procedures. Medication list Physical exam notes Lab and diagnostic testing results Pertinent HRP notes. (temporary removals, medical and psychological issues) Psychiatric records: A summary or actual note of the psychiatric or psychological evaluation

    Medical Records Checklist - September 14, 2010 Medical Records

  8. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  9. Calculation note review

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ramble, A.L.

    1996-09-30

    This document contains a review of the calculation notes which were prepared for the Tank Waste Remediation System Basis for Interim Operation.

  10. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  12. Notes and Action Items

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Notes and Action Items Notes and Action Items Report on the NUGEX business meeting of June 6, 2000, in Oak Ridge Minute notes by Bas Braams First of all, many thanks to the organizers of the preceding NUG meeting: Roberta Boucher, David Dean, Brian Hingerty, Bill Kramer, Donald Spong and Malcolm Stocks. Likewise thanks to Brian Hingerty and Mike Minkoff for organizing the Users Helping Users events, and to Tom DeBoni, Osni Marques, Jeffrey Squyres and David Turner for the NERSC training classes.

  13. Notes for Greenbook Process

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Notes Notes for Greenbook Process W. Kramer's Flip Charts - Input from the attendees on the Greenbook NUG Meeting February 22-23, 2001 The following are notes transcribed from the flip charts Bill filled in with attendee comments. Topic: The Last Greenbook CONS * 1 Person wrote it * Difficult to extract requirements * Needed to be "more even" tech edited * Latex is not immediately compatible with web-based text * Too complex for non-involved * Target audience not clear PROS * Person

  14. Meeting Notes and Presentations

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Corporate Board Notes and Slides Notes from EM Corporate QA Board Tele-Conference - February 22, 2010 1 of 2 General: Attendance of voting board members was documented. All members were present or had a representative present on the call. Previous 5 Focus Areas: Dave Tuttel presented the proposed closeout of the previous 5 focus areas for the EM Corporate Board. * Focus Area 1 (Requirements Flow Down) - Board voted to close the focus area (unanimous) * Focus Area 2 (Adequate NQA-1 Suppliers) -

  15. Notes and Action Items

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Notes and Action Items Notes and Action Items ERSUG Action Items from June 1996 meeting at Germantown, MD Get DOE staff on mailers for broadcast of ERSUG issues Responsibility: Kendall and Kitchens Review and comment on ERSUG Proposal to SAC Responsibility: All of ERSUG Comments to Rick Kendall by July 17th email: ra_kendall@pnl.gov Fax : (509) 375-6631 Review and comment on Requirements Document "Greenbook" Responsibility: All of ERSUG Comments to Rick Kendall by August 7th email:

  16. VOL2NOTE.CHP:Corel VENTURA

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    B Explanatory Notes The following Explanatory Notes are provided to assist in understanding and interpreting the data presented in this publication. * Note 1. Petroleum Supply Reporting System * Note 2. Monthly Petroleum Supply Reporting System * Note 3. Technical Notes for Detailed Statistics Tables * Note 4. Domestic Crude Oil Production * Note 5. Export Data * Note 6. Quality Control and Data Revision * Note 7. Frames Maintenance * Note 8. Descriptive Monthly Statistics * Note 9. Practical

  17. Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process

  18. Template:Note | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    search Note Note: Usage Method 1 The following displays the note icon and the word 'Note:'. You can follow this with whatever textimagesmarkup you like, and it works...

  19. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  20. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  1. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  2. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  3. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  4. Notes and Definitions

    Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (EIA)

    Notes and Definitions This report tracks U.S. natural gas inventories held in underground storage facilities. The weekly stocks generally are the volumes of working gas as of the report date. The "net change" in reported stock levels reflects all events affecting working gas in storage, including injections, withdrawals, and reclassifications between base and working gas. The "implied flow" estimate represents movements of working natural gas into or out of underground

  5. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  6. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  7. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  8. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  9. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Soft Costs Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar ...

  10. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... will share their expertise with CLASIC and CHAPS forecasters and project leaders as they consult on the forecast that will determine the day's operations plan. -- Storm Prediction ...

  11. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  12. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  13. HSEP Committee Meeting - Transcribed Flipchart Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Flipchart Notes August 8, 2013 Safety Culture Next Steps 1. Continue to get periodic briefings from SCIPT - progress on action items, contractor engagement, etc. 2. Get update on HSS review Page 1 DS Tanks/Flammable Gas - Next Steps 1. Update after DOE report on tank flow rate monitoring is available (Jan/Feb) 2. Tom w/follow up with concerns about pressurization alarms Page 2 Emergency Preparedness/Response: Input - Strategies for Awareness 1. Use real examples when trying to increase

  14. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  15. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  16. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-07-20.xlsx (72.85 KB) More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Assessment Report: OAS-V-15-01

  17. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  18. PIC Transcribed Flip Chart Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    "Workshop" versus "meeting" Could provide someone to take verbal comments Page 5 PIC Transcribed Flip Chart Notes Wednesday, October 31, 2012 300 Area Public Involvement...

  19. Research Notes and Information References

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1994-12-01

    The RNS (Research Notes System) is a set of programs and databases designed to aid the research worker in gathering, maintaining, and using notes taken from the literature. The sources for the notes can be books, journal articles, reports, private conversations, conference papers, audiovisuals, etc. The system ties the databases together in a relational structure, thus eliminating data redundancy while providing full access to all the information. The programs provide the means for access andmore » data entry in a way that reduces the key-entry burden for the user. Each note has several data fields. Included are the text of the note, the subject classification (for retrieval), and the reference identification data. These data are divided into four databases: Document data - title, author, publisher, etc., fields to identify the article within the document; Note data - text and page of the note; Sublect data - subject categories to ensure uniform spelling for searches. Additionally, there are subsidiary files used by the system, including database index and temporary work files. The system provides multiple access routes to the notes, both structurally (access method) and topically (through cross-indexing). Output may be directed to a printer or saved as a file for input to word processing software.« less

  20. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  1. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  2. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... day-ahead wind generation forecasts yields an average of 195M savings in annual operating costs. Figure 6 shows how operating cost savings vary with improvements in forecasting. ...

  3. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  4. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  5. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Subcontracting / Subcontracting Forecasts / UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities

  6. OpenEI Community - notes

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    more

    http:en.openei.orgcommunityblognotes-callcomments notes Linked Open Data Workshop in Washington, D.C. Fri, 28 Sep 2012 00:57:30 +0000 Jweers 521 at...

  7. GETEM Manuals and Revision Notes

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Please refer to these manuals and revision notes prior to downloading and running the Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM). Because this is a beta version, you are urged to...

  8. ARM - Field Campaign - 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaigns915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2011.05.31 - 2012.05.31 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of the installation of a 37 MW solar array on the grounds of Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), a study

  9. ARM - Field Campaign - Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaignsRadar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2013.07.15 - 2015.08.06 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of recent activities funded by the DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) to produce short-term

  10. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  11. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  12. Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    these lectures will be provided via RealPlayer. Users of Windows- or Macintosh-based computers will be able to see and hear the presentation by way of the following procedures. 1....

  13. Topic A Note: Includes STEPS Subtopic

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Topic A Note: Includes STEPS Subtopic 33 Total Projects Developing and Enhancing Workforce Training Programs

  14. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  15. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  16. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  17. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  18. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  19. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  20. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  1. Refinery Capacity Report - Explanatory Notes

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Energy Information Administration/Refinery Capacity Report 1 Explanatory Notes Survey Methodology Description of Survey Form The Form EIA-820, "Annual Refinery Report," is the primary source of data in the "Refinery Capacity Report" tables. The form collects data on the consumption of purchased steam, electricity, coal, and natural gas; refinery receipts of crude oil by method of transportation; operable capacity for atmospheric crude oil distillation units and downstream

  2. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  3. Lecture notes for criticality safety

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fullwood, R.

    1992-03-01

    These lecture notes for criticality safety are prepared for the training of Department of Energy supervisory, project management, and administrative staff. Technical training and basic mathematics are assumed. The notes are designed for a two-day course, taught by two lecturers. Video tapes may be used at the options of the instructors. The notes provide all the materials that are necessary but outside reading will assist in the fullest understanding. The course begins with a nuclear physics overview. The reader is led from the macroscopic world into the microscopic world of atoms and the elementary particles that constitute atoms. The particles, their masses and sizes and properties associated with radioactive decay and fission are introduced along with Einstein's mass-energy equivalence. Radioactive decay, nuclear reactions, radiation penetration, shielding and health-effects are discussed to understand protection in case of a criticality accident. Fission, the fission products, particles and energy released are presented to appreciate the dangers of criticality. Nuclear cross sections are introduced to understand the effectiveness of slow neutrons to produce fission. Chain reactors are presented as an economy; effective use of the neutrons from fission leads to more fission resulting in a power reactor or a criticality excursion. The six-factor formula is presented for managing the neutron budget. This leads to concepts of material and geometric buckling which are used in simple calculations to assure safety from criticality. Experimental measurements and computer code calculations of criticality are discussed. To emphasize the reality, historical criticality accidents are presented in a table with major ones discussed to provide lessons-learned. Finally, standards, NRC guides and regulations, and DOE orders relating to criticality protection are presented.

  4. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  5. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  6. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  7. AIRMaster+ Release Notes | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AIRMaster+ (Version 1.2.7) Release Notes Release Notes (Version 1.2.7) (296.45 KB) More Documents & Publications AIRMaster+ Software Tool Brochure AIRMaster+ User Manual AIRMaster+ ...

  8. Manhattan Project: A Note on Sources

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    A NOTE ON SOURCES Resources > Note on Sources The text for this web site is a combination of original material and adaptations from previous publications of the Department of ...

  9. Manhattan Project: A Note on Sources

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    A NOTE ON SOURCES Resources > Note on Sources The text for this web site is a combination ... To the best of our knowledge, all text and images on this web site are in the public ...

  10. Meeting Summary Notes | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy Notes re NOI for Convention on Supplementary Compensation Meeting Notes re NOI for Convention on Supplementary Compensation notes from meeting on Convention on Supplementary Compensation Meeting Notes re NOI for Convention on Supplementary Compensation (45.83 KB) More Documents & Publications Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage Contingent Cost Allocation Public comment re Convention on Supplementary Compensation on Nuclear Damage Contingent

  11. EM QA Working Group September 2011 Notes

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Meeting minutes and notes from the EM QA Working Group video conference meeting held in September 2011.

  12. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  13. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  14. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  15. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  16. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  17. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  18. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  19. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  20. Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu Beyond the familiar flu,

  1. Property:ExplorationNotes | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    the property "ExplorationNotes" Showing 1 page using this property. R RAPIDOverviewGeothermalExplorationCalifornia + The Geothermal Resources Prospecting Permit (PRC...

  2. EM QA Working Group September 2011 Notes

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    suspectcounterfeit items, software QA, and corrective actions? Bob also noted that we need to be diligent in the understanding and use of the metrics to avoid potential issues ...

  3. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  4. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  5. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  6. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  7. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  8. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  9. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  10. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  11. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  12. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  13. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  14. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  15. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  16. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  17. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  18. PIA - Savannah River Operations Office Lotus Domino/Notes System...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Lotus DominoNotes System PDF icon PIA - Savannah River Operations Office Lotus DominoNotes System More Documents & Publications PIA - DOE Savannah River Operations Office PRISM ...

  19. Note: On the wavelength dependence of the intensity calibration...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Note: On the wavelength dependence of the intensity calibration factor of extreme ... Title: Note: On the wavelength dependence of the intensity calibration factor of extreme ...

  20. Notes on Newton-Krylov based Incompressible Flow Projection Solver...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Notes on Newton-Krylov based Incompressible Flow Projection Solver Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Notes on Newton-Krylov based Incompressible Flow Projection Solver The ...

  1. Notes on Newton-Krylov based Incompressible Flow Projection Solver...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Notes on Newton-Krylov based Incompressible Flow Projection Solver Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Notes on Newton-Krylov based Incompressible Flow Projection Solver ...

  2. Note: Coherent resonances observed in the dissociative electron...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Note: Coherent resonances observed in the dissociative electron attachment to carbon monoxide Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Note: Coherent resonances observed in the ...

  3. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  4. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  5. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  6. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  7. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  8. Xyce parallel electronic simulator release notes.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keiter, Eric Richard; Hoekstra, Robert John; Mei, Ting; Russo, Thomas V.; Schiek, Richard Louis; Thornquist, Heidi K.; Rankin, Eric Lamont; Coffey, Todd Stirling; Pawlowski, Roger Patrick; Santarelli, Keith R.

    2010-05-01

    The Xyce Parallel Electronic Simulator has been written to support, in a rigorous manner, the simulation needs of the Sandia National Laboratories electrical designers. Specific requirements include, among others, the ability to solve extremely large circuit problems by supporting large-scale parallel computing platforms, improved numerical performance and object-oriented code design and implementation. The Xyce release notes describe: Hardware and software requirements New features and enhancements Any defects fixed since the last release Current known defects and defect workarounds For up-to-date information not available at the time these notes were produced, please visit the Xyce web page at http://www.cs.sandia.gov/xyce.

  9. RAP Meeting Transcribed Flip Chart Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Flip Chart Notes February 15, 2012 Site-wide Permit Workshop May 3 1. Have "post-workshop" session to discuss HAB next steps 2. Recommend Ecology sponsors & facilitates Workshop - Ecology captures notes, but HAB members track issues of concern, too. 3. Web-ex for public when it fits 4. Pre-workshop meeting with HAB issue leaders (potential speakers) Page 1 300 Area HAB next steps... IM & Pam 1. Issue managers meet to review potential issues for HAB/committees 2. Bring back to

  10. Application Note: Power Grid Modeling With Xyce.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sholander, Peter E.

    2015-06-01

    This application note describes how to model steady-state power flows and transient events in electric power grids with the SPICE-compatible Xyce TM Parallel Electronic Simulator developed at Sandia National Labs. This application notes provides a brief tutorial on the basic devices (branches, bus shunts, transformers and generators) found in power grids. The focus is on the features supported and assumptions made by the Xyce models for power grid elements. It then provides a detailed explanation, including working Xyce netlists, for simulating some simple power grid examples such as the IEEE 14-bus test case.

  11. Period meter for reactors

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Rusch, Gordon K.

    1976-01-06

    An improved log N amplifier type nuclear reactor period meter with reduced probability for noise-induced scrams is provided. With the reactor at low power levels a sampling circuit is provided to determine the reactor period by measuring the finite change in the amplitude of the log N amplifier output signal for a predetermined time period, while at high power levels, differentiation of the log N amplifier output signal provides an additional measure of the reactor period.

  12. Notes on beam dynamics in linear accelerators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gluckstern, R.L.

    1980-09-01

    A collection of notes, on various aspects of beam dynamics in linear accelerators, which were produced by the author during five years (1975 to 1980) of consultation for the LASL Accelerator Technology (AT) Division and Medium-Energy Physics (MP) Division is presented.

  13. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  14. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

    2010-02-21

    measure in order to get the maximum positive impact on forecast performance for a particular site and short-term look-ahead period. Both tools rely on the use of NWP models to assess the sensitivity of a forecast for a particular location to measurements made at a prior time (i.e. the look-ahead period) at points surrounding the target location. The fundamental hypothesis is that points and variables with high sensitivity are good candidates for measurements since information at those points are likely to have the most impact on the forecast for the desired parameter, location and look-ahead period. One approach is called the adjoint method (Errico and Vukicevic, 1992; Errico, 1997) and the other newer approach is known as Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA; Ancell and Hakim 2007; Torn and Hakim 2008). Both approaches have been tested on large-scale atmospheric prediction problems (e.g. forecasting pressure or precipitation over a relatively large region 24 hours ahead) but neither has been applied to mesoscale space-time scales of winds or any other variables near the surface of the earth. A number of factors suggest that ESA is better suited for short-term wind forecasting applications. One of the most significant advantages of this approach is that it is not necessary to linearize the mathematical representation of the processes in the underlying atmospheric model as required by the adjoint approach. Such a linearization may be especially problematic for the application of short-term forecasting of boundary layer winds in complex terrain since non-linear shifts in the structure of boundary layer due to atmospheric stability changes are a critical part of the wind power production forecast problem. The specific objective of work described in this paper is to test the ESA as a tool to identify measurement locations and variables that have the greatest positive impact on the accuracy of wind forecasts in the 0- to 6-hour look-ahead periods for the wind generation area of

  15. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  16. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  17. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  18. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and ...

  19. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  20. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  1. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...

  2. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  3. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  4. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  5. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... RIT forecasting is saving costs and improving operational practices for IPC and helping integrate wind power more efficiently and cost effectively. Figure 3 shows how the ...

  6. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Cost Assignment - Only a few respondents partly or fully recover forecasting costs from variable generators. Many simply absorb the costs, possibly viewing them as relatively ...

  7. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  8. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... The licensing arrangement helps to facilitate transfer of the statistical learning algorithms developed in the project to industry use. A leading forecast provider in the United ...

  9. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  10. Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Intharathirat, Rotchana; Abdul Salam, P.; Kumar, S.; Untong, Akarapong

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.

  11. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are

  12. Scoping Period Closed

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The environmental impact statement (EIS) scoping period has ended. DOE is preparing a Draft EIS that will analyze and compare the potential environmental impacts of various alternative approaches...

  13. LLW notes. Volume 11, No.8

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-12-01

    `LLW Notes` is distributed by Afton Associates, Inc. to Low-Level Radioactive Waste Forum Participants and other state, and compact officials identified by those Participants to receive `LLW Notes`. The Low-Level Radioactive Waste Forum (LLW Forum) is an association of state and compact representatives, appointed by governors and compact commissions, established to facilitate state and compact implementation of the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy Act of 1980 and the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1985 and to promote the objectives of low-level radioactive waste regional compacts. The LLW Forum provides an opportunity for state and compact officials to share information with one another and to exchange views with officials of federal agencies and other interested parties.

  14. LLW notes, Vol. 11, No. 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-03-01

    `LLW Notes` is distributed by Afton Associates, Inc. to Low-Level Radioactive Waste Forum Participants and other state, and compact officials identified by those Participants to receive LLW Notes. The Low-Level Radioactive Waste Forum (LLW Forum) is an association of state and compact representatives, appointed by governors and compact commissions, established to facilitate state and compact implementation of the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy Act of 1980 and the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy amendments Act of 1985 and to promote the objectives of low-level radioactive waste regional compacts. The LLW Forum provides an opportunity for state and compact officials to share information with one another and to exchange views with officials of federal agencies and other interested parties.

  15. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Shale Gas Production Definitions Key Terms Definition Shale Gas Natural gas produced from organic (black) shale formations. For definitions of related energy terms, refer to the EIA Energy Glossary. Sources Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas Explanatory Notes Shale Gas production data collected in conjunction with proved reserves data on Form EIA-23 are unofficial. Official Shale Gas production data from Form EIA-895 can be found in Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals and

  16. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Products Supplied Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5 barrels per

  17. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Other Products Definitions Key Terms Definition Aviation Gasoline A complex mixture of relatively volatile hydrocarbons with or without small quantities of additives, blended to form a fuel suitable for use in aviation reciprocating engines. Fuel specifications are provided in ASTM Specification D 910 and Military Specification MIL-G-5572. Note: Data on blending components are not counted in data on finished aviation gasoline. Gas Plant Operator Any firm, including a gas plant owner, which

  18. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Exports Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5 barrels per short ton.

  19. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Exports by Destination Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5 barrels

  20. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Area of Entry Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5 barrels per short

  1. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    PAD District Imports by Country of Origin Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for

  2. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    U.S. Imports by Country of Origin Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is

  3. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Imports by Destination Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5 barrels

  4. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Receipts by Pipeline, Tanker, and Barge Between PAD Districts Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The

  5. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Pipeline, Tanker, and Barge Between PADDs Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for

  6. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Tanker and Barge Between PADDs Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5

  7. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Shell Storage Capacity at Operable Refineries Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for

  8. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Working Storage Capacity at Operable Refineries Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor

  9. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Yield Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5 barrels per short ton.

  10. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Production Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5 barrels per short

  11. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    & Blender Net Production Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5

  12. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Petroleum Product Prices by Sales Type Definitions Key Terms Definition Aviation Gasoline (Finished) A complex mixture of relatively volatile hydrocarbons with or without small quantities of additives, blended to form a fuel suitable for use in aviation reciprocating engines. Fuel specifications are provided in ASTM Specification D 910 and Military Specification MIL-G-5572. Note: Data on blending components are not counted in data on finished aviation gasoline. Gas Plant Operator Any firm,

  13. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Refinery Stocks Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5 barrels per

  14. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Prices, Sales Volumes & Stocks by State Definitions Key Terms Definition Aviation Gasoline (Finished) A complex mixture of relatively volatile hydrocarbons with or without small quantities of additives, blended to form a fuel suitable for use in aviation reciprocating engines. Fuel specifications are provided in ASTM Specification D 910 and Military Specification MIL-G-5572. Note: Data on blending components are not counted in data on finished aviation gasoline. Gas Plant Operator Any firm,

  15. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Supply and Disposition Balance Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5

  16. labNotes | netl.doe.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    LabNotes NETL Validates Innovative Spectrometry Technique libs-PIC.JPG Graphic representation of in situ measurements of calcium carbonate dissolution under rising CO2 pressure using underwater laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy. Image used as the front cover for the Journal of Analytical Atomic Spectrometry's July 2016 issue. An article highlighting NETL's research into the use of laser spectrometry to collect data vital to ensuring the efficacy and safety of geologic carbon storage sites was

  17. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  18. Technical analysis in short-term uranium price forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schramm, D.S.

    1990-03-01

    As market participants anticipate the end of the current uranium price decline and its subsequent reversal, increased attention will be focused upon forecasting future price movements. Although uranium is economically similar to other mineral commodities, it is questionable whether methodologies used to forecast price movements of such commodities may be successfully applied to uranium.

  19. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  20. Genealogy of periodic trajectories

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    de Adguiar, M.A.M.; Maldta, C.P.; de Passos, E.J.V.

    1986-05-20

    The periodic solutions of non-integrable classical Hamiltonian systems with two degrees of freedom are numerically investigated. Curves of periodic families are given in plots of energy vs. period. Results are presented for this Hamiltonian: H = 1/2(p/sub x//sup 2/ + p/sub y//sup 2/) + 1/2 x/sup 2/ + 3/2 y/sup 2/ - x/sup 2/y + 1/12 x/sup 4/. Properties of the families of curves are pointed out. (LEW)

  1. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  2. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  3. Scoping Period Open

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published in the Federal Register a Notice of Intent to prepare an environmental impact statement (EIS), and the scoping period is open for public comment for at least 30 days. DOE requests...

  4. Holding Period Complete

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS), and the 30-day waiting period has ended. DOE is preparing a Record of Decision to announce and explain its chosen project alternative...

  5. Comment Period Closed Explained

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The public comment period on the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) has ended, and DOE is preparing a Final EIS. The Final EIS will consider and respond to all timely public comments on the...

  6. eNews Note of Appreciation

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    3 Issue 25 ASC eNews Quarterly Newsletter September 2013 A Note of Appreciation Reeta Garber The ASC Program would like to recognize Reeta Garber for her leadership in designing and developing programmatic communications tools and activities and to wish her the very best as she retires (again) to begin a new phase in her life. Since 1998 Reeta has supported the ASC Program as an important member of the core team responsible for spreading the word about DOE/NNSA laboratory and Federal efforts in

  7. MICROBOONE-NOTE-1006-PUB Study Towards

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    6-PUB Study Towards an Event Selection for Neutral Current Inclusive Single π 0 Production in MicroBooNE The MicroBooNE Collaboration May 3, 2016 Abstract This note describes a Monte Carlo study towards an event selection for the neutrino induced Neutral Current (NC) single π 0 cross section using the MicroBooNE detector. The NC single π 0 channel is especially important in neutrino oscillation experiments as it is one of the main backgrounds in any ν e or ν e appearance search. This

  8. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  9. Meeting Notes re NOI for Convention on Supplementary Compensation |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Notes re NOI for Convention on Supplementary Compensation Meeting Notes re NOI for Convention on Supplementary Compensation notes from meeting on Convention on Supplementary Compensation Meeting Notes re NOI for Convention on Supplementary Compensation (45.83 KB) More Documents & Publications Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage Contingent Cost Allocation NOPR NEI CIGNLCommentsDOECSCRulemaking11-30-10.doc

  10. DOE Durability Working Group October 2011 Meeting Notes | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy 1 Meeting Notes DOE Durability Working Group October 2011 Meeting Notes Meeting notes from the Fall 2011 Durability Working Group (DWG) Meeting sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Fuel Cell Technologies Program. Notes also include a summary of progress on action items from the Spring 2011 DWG meeting. durability_working_group_minutes_oct_2011.pdf (54.58 KB) More Documents & Publications DOE Durability Working Group October 2010 Meeting Minutes DOE Durability Working

  11. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  12. The MicroBooNE Experiment - Public Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Public Notes Page Back to the Publications Page 7/4/16 MICROBOONE-NOTE-1019-PUB Convolutional Neural Networks Applied to Neutrino Events in a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber 7/4/16 MICROBOONE-NOTE-1017-PUB A Method to Extract the Charge Distribution Arriving at the TPC Wire Planes in MicroBooNE 7/4/16 MICROBOONE-NOTE-1016-PUB Noise Characterization and Filtering in the MicroBooNE TPC 7/4/16 MICROBOONE-NOTE-1015-PUB The Pandora multi-algorithm approach to automated pattern recognition in LAr

  13. Machine Learning Based Multi-Physical-Model Blending for Enhancing Renewable Energy Forecast -- Improvement via Situation Dependent Error Correction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lu, Siyuan; Hwang, Youngdeok; Khabibrakhmanov, Ildar; Marianno, Fernando J.; Shao, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Hamann, Hendrik F.

    2015-07-15

    With increasing penetration of solar and wind energy to the total energy supply mix, the pressing need for accurate energy forecasting has become well-recognized. Here we report the development of a machine-learning based model blending approach for statistically combining multiple meteorological models for improving the accuracy of solar/wind power forecast. Importantly, we demonstrate that in addition to parameters to be predicted (such as solar irradiance and power), including additional atmospheric state parameters which collectively define weather situations as machine learning input provides further enhanced accuracy for the blended result. Functional analysis of variance shows that the error of individual model has substantial dependence on the weather situation. The machine-learning approach effectively reduces such situation dependent error thus produces more accurate results compared to conventional multi-model ensemble approaches based on simplistic equally or unequally weighted model averaging. Validation over an extended period of time results show over 30% improvement in solar irradiance/power forecast accuracy compared to forecasts based on the best individual model.

  14. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  15. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  16. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  17. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  18. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  19. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler ... M Jensen et al., March 2016, DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting ...

  20. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  1. DOE Publishes New Forecast of Energy Savings from LED Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy has just published the latest edition of its biannual report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, which models the...

  2. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  3. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  4. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind ...

  5. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  6. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  7. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  8. New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering illustrates the full site installation, including a new aerosol observing system (far left) and a precipitation radar (far right, with 20-ft tower). The site is located near the Graciosa Island aiport terminal, hidden by the image inset. | Image courtesy of ARM Climate Research Facility. This artist's

  9. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  10. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  11. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on

  12. BNL ALARA Center: ALARA Notes, No. 9

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Khan, T.A.; Xie, J.W.; Beckman, M.C.

    1994-02-01

    This issue of the Brookhaven National Laboratory`s Alara Notes includes the agenda for the Third International Workshop on ALARA and specific instructions on the use of the on-line fax-on-demand service provided by BNL. Other topics included in this issue are: (1) A discussion of low-level discharges from Canadian nuclear plants, (2) Safety issues at French nuclear plants, (3) Acoustic emission as a means of leak detection, (4) Replacement of steam generators at Doel-3, Beaznau, and North Anna-1, (5) Remote handling equipment at Bruce, (6) EPRI`s low level waste program, (7) Radiation protection during concrete repairs at Savannah River, (8) Reactor vessel stud removal/repair at Comanche Peak-1, (9) Rework of reactor coolant pump motors, (10) Restoration of service water at North Anna-1 and -2, (11) Steam generator tubing problems at Mihama-1, (12) Full system decontamination at Indian Point-2, (13) Chemical decontamination at Browns Ferry-2, and (14) Inspection methodolody in France and Japan.

  13. Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE) Notes_ Clothes Dryer Test Procedure

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    | Department of Energy Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE) Notes_ Clothes Dryer Test Procedure Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE) Notes_ Clothes Dryer Test Procedure CEE and DOE staff discussed the importance of relying on the DOE test method as the sole metric for efficiency and energy use reporting. CEE_Notes_ClothesDryerTestProcedure_25Apr2016 (352.34 KB) More Documents & Publications 2015-03-23 Issuance: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Clothes Dryers; Request for

  14. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  15. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  16. Sample Memorandum to Reactivate a Directive Placed on Hold (NOTE...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sample Memorandum to Reactivate a Directive Placed on Hold (NOTE: Per Office of Executive Secretariat procedures, please use Calibri, 12 point font for this memorandum.) (Effective...

  17. Workshop Notes from ""Compressed Natural Gas and Hydrogen Fuels...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Hydrogen Fuels: Lessons Learned for the Safe Deployment of Vehicles"" Workshop, December 10-11, 2009 Workshop Notes from ""Compressed Natural Gas and Hydrogen Fuels: Lessons ...

  18. West Flank Coso FORGE: well photos and notes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doug Blankenship

    2015-12-21

    Photos and detailed down-hole lithology notes for wells CGEH-1 and 74-2 at the West Flank Coso, Ca FORGE location.

  19. COLLOQUIUM - PLEASE NOTE SPECIAL DATE/TIME: The Magnetospheric...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    COLLOQUIUM - PLEASE NOTE SPECIAL DATETIME: The Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission Investigation of Magnetic Reconnection Professor Roy Torbert University of New Hampshire ...

  20. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  1. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  2. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  3. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  4. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  5. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  6. Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts May 11, 2016 - 6:48pm Addthis Balancing the power grid is an art-or at least a scientific study in chaos-and the Energy Department is hoping wind energy can take a greater role in the act. Yet, the intermittency of wind-sometimes it's blowing, sometimes it's not-makes adding it smoothly to the nation's electrical grid a challenge.

  7. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-02-01

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  8. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  9. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  10. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m

  11. Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System ...

  12. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  13. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  14. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  15. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information ...

  16. EIA-906 & EIA-920, and EIA-923 Database Notes

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA-906 & EIA-920, and EIA-923 Database Notes" ,"Date","Subject","Notes" ,38086,"Excel File Documentation","The documentation included with the Excel file has been updated to include the year to date columns at the end (far right) of the file. In addition, the documentation now clearly notes that the total consumption numbers include fuel consumed at combined heat and power plants for the purpose of producing process steam."

  17. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  18. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  19. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  20. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  1. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  2. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  3. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-09-22

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the 'Microbase' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  4. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the “Mergedsounding” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  5. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help

  6. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  7. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  8. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  9. Workshop Notes from "Compressed Natural Gas and Hydrogen Fuels...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    exchange information among experts from China, India, and the U.S. on compressed natural ... It should be noted that in 2008, there were about 490,000 CNG vehicles in China. China ...

  10. Federal Utility Partnership Working Group Meeting Notes | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Federal Utility Partnership Working Group Meeting Notes Spring 2013 Meeting Report (510.93 KB) Fall 2012 Meeting Report (606.19 KB) Spring 2012 Meeting Report (307.53 KB) Fall 2011 ...

  11. PLEASE NOTE THURSDAY DATE - COLLOQUIUM: Professor Ralph Roskies...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    May 23, 2013, 4:15pm to 5:30pm Colloquia MBG Auditorium PLEASE NOTE THURSDAY DATE - COLLOQUIUM: Professor Ralph Roskies - "Big Data at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center" ...

  12. Energy consumption and expenditure projections by population group on the basis of the annual energy outlook 1999 forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poyer, D.A.; Balsley, J.H.

    2000-01-07

    This report presents an analysis of the relative impact of the base-case scenario used in Annual Energy Outlook 1999 on different population groups. Projections of energy consumption and expenditures, as well as energy expenditure as a share of income, from 1996 to 2020 are given. The projected consumption of electricty, natural gas, distillate fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas during this period is also reported for each population group. In addition, this report compares the findings of the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 report with the 1998 report. Changes in certain indicators and information affect energy use forecasts, and these effects are analyzed and discussed.

  13. Parc Periodical | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Parc Periodical Parc Periodical PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 2 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 1 PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 6 PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 5 PARC...

  14. U.S. Department of Energy Onboard Storage Tank Workshop Notes...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Onboard Storage Tank Workshop Notes U.S. Department of Energy Onboard Storage Tank Workshop Notes These notes and action items were derived from the Onboard Storage Tank Workshop ...

  15. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  16. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and

  17. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and

  18. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  19. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  20. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.

  1. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapiesmore » is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.« less

  2. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  3. Shortest recurrence periods of novae

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kato, Mariko [Department of Astronomy, Keio University, Hiyoshi, Yokohama 223-8521 (Japan); Saio, Hideyuki [Astronomical Institute, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8578 (Japan); Hachisu, Izumi [Department of Earth Science and Astronomy, College of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 3-8-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8902 (Japan); Nomoto, Ken'ichi, E-mail: mariko@educ.cc.keio.ac.jp [Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (WPI), The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8583 (Japan)

    2014-10-01

    Stimulated by the recent discovery of the 1 yr recurrence period nova M31N 2008-12a, we examined the shortest recurrence periods of hydrogen shell flashes on mass-accreting white dwarfs (WDs). We discuss the mechanism that yields a finite minimum recurrence period for a given WD mass. Calculating the unstable flashes for various WD masses and mass accretion rates, we identified a shortest recurrence period of about two months for a non-rotating 1.38 M {sub ?} WD with a mass accretion rate of 3.6 10{sup 7} M {sub ?} yr{sup 1}. A 1 yr recurrence period is realized for very massive (? 1.3 M {sub ?}) WDs with very high accretion rates (? 1.5 10{sup 7} M {sub ?} yr{sup 1}). We revised our stability limit of hydrogen shell burning, which will be useful for binary evolution calculations toward Type Ia supernovae.

  4. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements.

  5. A note on entropic force and brane cosmology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ling, Yi; Wu, Jian-Pin E-mail: jianpinwu@yahoo.com.cn

    2010-08-01

    Recently Verlinde proposed that gravity is an entropic force caused by information changes when a material body moves away from the holographic screen. In this note we apply this argument to brane cosmology, and show that the cosmological equation can be derived from this holographic scenario.

  6. Tribal Consultation and Stakeholder Outreach Meeting Notes and Analysis

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Strategy on the Arctic Region (NSAR) - Ten Year Renewable Energy Strategy Tribal Consultation and Stakeholder Outreach Meeting Notes and Analysis Prepared by Denali Daniels and Associates, Inc. Fall 2014 Office of Indian Energy Table o f C ontents Executive S ummary .............................................................................................................................................. 2 --- 6 Background

  7. Operation Periods: Single Column Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2 Fall 2002 Intensive Operation Periods: Single Column Model and Unmanned Aerospace Vehicle In an Intensive Operation Period (IOP) on November 3-23, 2002, researchers at the SGP CART site are collecting a detailed data set for use in improving the Single Column Model (SCM), a scaled- down climate model. The SCM represents one vertical column of air above Earth's surface and requires less computation time than a full-scale global climate model. Researchers first use the SCM to efficiently improve

  8. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  9. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  10. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  11. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  12. Enhancing Cloud Radiative Processes and Radiation Efficiency in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iacono, Michael J.

    2015-03-09

    The objective of this research has been to evaluate and implement enhancements to the computational performance of the RRTMG radiative transfer option in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Efficiency is as essential as accuracy for effective numerical weather prediction, and radiative transfer is a relatively time-consuming component of dynamical models, taking up to 30-50 percent of the total model simulation time. To address this concern, this research has implemented and tested a version of RRTMG that utilizes graphics processing unit (GPU) technology (hereinafter RRTMGPU) to greatly improve its computational performance; thereby permitting either more frequent simulation of radiative effects or other model enhancements. During the early stages of this project the development of RRTMGPU was completed at AER under separate NASA funding to accelerate the code for use in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Goddard Earth Observing System GEOS-5 global model. It should be noted that this final report describes results related to the funded portion of the originally proposed work concerning the acceleration of RRTMG with GPUs in WRF. As a k-distribution model, RRTMG is especially well suited to this modification due to its relatively large internal pseudo-spectral (g-point) dimension that, when combined with the horizontal grid vector in the dynamical model, can take great advantage of the GPU capability. Thorough testing under several model configurations has been performed to ensure that RRTMGPU improves WRF model run time while having no significant impact on calculated radiative fluxes and heating rates or on dynamical model fields relative to the RRTMG radiation. The RRTMGPU codes have been provided to NCAR for possible application to the next public release of the WRF forecast model.

  13. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconne...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular ...

  14. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  15. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting behind-the-meter distributed PV generation power production within a region ... This project is expected to reduce the costs of integrating higher penetrations of PV into ...

  16. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    turbines operate closer to maximum capacity, leading to lower energy costs for consumers. ... for the Weather Research and Forecasting model, a widely used weather prediction system. ...

  17. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  18. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    electric system operators, and solar project owners better predict when and how much ... production varies, an accurate solar forecast is needed in order to maintain an ...

  19. LLW Notes, Volume 9, Number 6. October 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1994-10-01

    LLW Notes is distributed to Low-Level Radioactive Waste Forum Participants and other state and compact officials identified by those Participants to receive LLW Notes. The Low-Level Radioactive Waste Forum is an association of state and compact representatives appointed by governors and compact commissions, established to facilitate state and compact commission implementation of the Low- Level Radioactive Waste Policy Act of 1980 and the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1985 and to promote the objectives of low-level radioactive waste regional compacts. The Forum provides an opportunity for states and compacts to share information with one another and to exchange views with officials of federal agencies and other interested parties.

  20. Application note : using open source schematic capture tools with Xyce.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Russo, Thomas V.

    2013-08-01

    The development of the XyceTM Parallel Electronic Simulator has focused entirely on the creation of a fast, scalable simulation tool, and has not included any schematic capture or data visualization tools. This application note will describe how to use the open source schematic capture tool gschem and its associated netlist creation tool gnetlist to create basic circuit designs for Xyce, and how to access advanced features of Xyce that are not directly supported by either gschem or gnetlist.

  1. State Energy Data System 2014 Price and Expenditure Technical Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Price and Expenditure Technical Notes U.S. Energy Information Administration | State Energy Data 2014: Prices and Expenditures 3 Purpose The State Energy Data System (SEDS) was developed and is maintained and operated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS is to create historical time series of energy production, consumption, prices, and expenditures by state that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. SEDS exists for two

  2. - Resilient Electric Distribution Grid R&D Workshop Notes

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    th - Resilient Electric Distribution Grid R&D Workshop Notes Breakout session: Identification of R&D areas for Design, preparedness, and planning for a resilient electric distribution grid Moderator: Russell Bent, Los Alamos National Laboratory  Segmentation and recombination were considered as the first main area. o One of participants stated it could be in the form of a microgrid  Data sharing and operation is also important especially in real-time o GIS was suggested

  3. June 2016 LabNotes | netl.doe.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    June 2016 LabNotes Intern Publishes Paper on the Effects of Hydraulic Fracturing Fluid on Marcellus Shale For the last two and a half years, NETL ORISE intern Matt Dieterich has been working closely with NETL researchers, Barbara Kutchko and Angela Goodman, learning to use some of the cutting-edge analytical equipment at NETL. Recently, their research efforts have culminated in the publication of Dieterich's first peer-reviewed paper. The article, "Characterization of Marcellus Shale and

  4. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the systems ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  5. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Finley, Catherine; Nakafuji, Dora; Peterson, Jack L.; Maggio, David; Marquis, Melinda

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

  6. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  7. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  8. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; et al

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

  9. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  10. PARC Periodical | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    PARC Periodical PARC Periodical August 30, 2016 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 6 VIEW ARTICLE HERE Read more about PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 6 June 1, 2016 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 5 VIEW ARTICLE HERE Read more about PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 5 March 1, 2016 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 4 VIEW ARTICLE HERE Read more about PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 4 February 16, 2016 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 3 VIEW ARTICLE HERE Read more about PARC Periodical |

  11. Intensive Observation Period Projects Scheduled

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    1 Intensive Observation Period Projects Scheduled Several IOP projects have been scheduled for the SGP CART site this spring. These projects either have already begun or will begin shortly. Radiosondes The RS-90 Transition IOP is currently under way. The RS-90 model radiosonde is gradually replacing the older RS-80 model. Radiosondes are instrument packages attached to and launched by weather balloons. The instruments measure atmospheric pressure, temperature, and relative humidity as the

  12. Down hole periodic seismic generator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hardee, Harry C.; Hills, Richard G.; Striker, Richard P.

    1989-01-01

    A down hole periodic seismic generator system for transmitting variable frequency, predominantly shear-wave vibration into earth strata surrounding a borehole. The system comprises a unitary housing operably connected to a well head by support and electrical cabling and contains clamping apparatus for selectively clamping the housing to the walls of the borehole. The system further comprises a variable speed pneumatic oscillator and a self-contained pneumatic reservoir for producing a frequency-swept seismic output over a discrete frequency range.

  13. Advanced downhole periodic seismic generator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hardee, Harry C.; Hills, Richard G.; Striker, Richard P.

    1991-07-16

    An advanced downhole periodic seismic generator system for transmitting variable frequency, predominantly shear-wave vibration into earth strata surrounding a borehole. The system comprises a unitary housing operably connected to a well head by support and electrical cabling and contains clamping apparatus for selectively clamping the housing to the walls of the borehole. The system further comprises a variable speed pneumatic oscillator and a self-contained pneumatic reservoir for producing a frequency-swept seismic output over a discrete frequency range.

  14. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  15. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  16. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  17. Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1994--FY 2001. Environmental Restoration Program, September 1993 Revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    This Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project. FY 1994--FY 2001 is the third in a series of documents that report current estimates of the waste volumes expected to be generated as a result of Environmental Restoration activities at Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office (DOE-ORO), sites. Considered in the scope of this document are volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of remedial action and decontamination and decommissioning activities taking place at these sites. Sites contributing to the total estimates make up the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Y-12 Plant, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, and the off-site contaminated areas adjacent to the Oak Ridge facilities (collectively referred to as the Oak Ridge Reservation Off-Site area). Estimates are available for the entire fife of all waste generating activities. This document summarizes waste estimates forecasted for the 8-year period of FY 1994-FY 2001. Updates with varying degrees of change are expected throughout the refinement of restoration strategies currently in progress at each of the sites. Waste forecast data are relatively fluid, and this document represents remediation plans only as reported through September 1993.

  18. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  19. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-09-19

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the “Microbase” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  20. Notes from Financial and Physical Oil Market Linkages

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Notes from Financial and Physical Oil Market Linkages August 24, 2011 Session 1: 9:30 a.m. - 11:00 a.m. Paper Title: Does 'Paper Oil' Matter? Presenter: Michel Robe, American University Discussant: James Smith, Southern Methodist University Paper Abstract We construct a uniquely detailed, comprehensive dataset of trader positions in U.S. energy futures markets. We find considerable changes in the make-up of the open interest between 2000 and 2010 and show that these changes impact asset pricing.

  1. MICROBOONE-NOTE-1008-PUB Michel Electron Reconstruction Using

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    8-PUB Michel Electron Reconstruction Using the MicroBooNE LArTPC Cosmic Data The MicroBooNE Collaboration August 25, 2016 Abstract MicroBooNE is a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) neutrino detector located in the Booster Neutrino Beamline at Fermilab which began collecting neutrino data in October 2015. MicroBooNE aims to explore the low-energy excess in the ν e spectrum reported by MiniBooNE as well as perform ν-Ar cross-section measurements. In this note, we present the current

  2. DOE-EERE Durability Working Group Meeting Notes

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE-EERE Durability Working Group (DWG) Meeting Thursday, October 13, 2011 Boston, MA Meeting Notes D. Myers and R. Borup Meeting Agenda 6:30 pm Welcome and introductory comments Debbie Myers (Argonne) and Rod Borup (Los Alamos) - co-chairs 6:40-7:45 pm Descriptions and summaries of results of modeling efforts in durability projects Dane Morgan, University of Wisconsin-Madison Srikanth Arisetty, ANL Adam Weber, LBNL Shanna Knights, Ballard Sergei Burlatsky, UTC Power Jean St-Pierre, University

  3. COLLOQUIUM: NOTE SPECIAL DATE - THURSDAY: Unique Vulnerability of the New

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    York/New Jersey Metro Region to Hurricane Destruction - A New Perspective Based on Recent Research on Irene 2011 and Sandy 2012 | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab February 28, 2013, 4:15pm to 5:30pm Colloquia MBG Auditorium COLLOQUIUM: NOTE SPECIAL DATE - THURSDAY: Unique Vulnerability of the New York/New Jersey Metro Region to Hurricane Destruction - A New Perspective Based on Recent Research on Irene 2011 and Sandy 2012 Professor Nicholas K. Coch Queens College CUNY In the last two years. the

  4. V-147: IBM Lotus Notes Mail Client Lets Remote Users Execute...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    7: IBM Lotus Notes Mail Client Lets Remote Users Execute Java Applets V-147: IBM Lotus Notes Mail Client Lets Remote Users Execute Java Applets May 2, 2013 - 6:00am Addthis...

  5. Periodic permanent magnet focused klystron

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ferguson, Patrick; Read, Michael; Ives, R Lawrence

    2015-04-21

    A periodic permanent magnet (PPM) klystron has beam transport structures and RF cavity structures, each of which has permanent magnets placed substantially equidistant from a beam tunnel formed about the central axis, and which are also outside the extent of a cooling chamber. The RF cavity sections also have permanent magnets which are placed substantially equidistant from the beam tunnel, but which include an RF cavity coupling to the beam tunnel for enhancement of RF carried by an electron beam in the beam tunnel.

  6. PVMRW2013 Discussion notes. Tues. Feb. 26, 5:30 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    notes. Tues. Feb. 26, 5:30 PVMRW2013 Discussion notes. Tues. Feb. 26, 5:30 We do see some bad diodes going into the field... discussionnotes_tues_530.pdf (93.95 KB) More Documents & Publications PVMRW2013 Discussion notes: Tues. Feb. 26: 10:45 PVMRW2013 Discussion notes Tues. Feb. 26 2013, 2:30 US & Japan TG 4 Activities of QA Forum

  7. PVMRW2013 Wed., Feb. 27, 10:00 Discussion notes: | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    0:00 Discussion notes: PVMRW2013 Wed., Feb. 27, 10:00 Discussion notes: We hear that the dampl heat test causes failures that are not representative of field failure... discussionnotes_weds_1000.pdf (103.24 KB) More Documents & Publications PVMRW2013 Discussion notes: Tues. Feb. 26: 10:45 PVMRW2013 Wed., Feb. 27, 1:45 Discussion notes PVMRW2013 Wed., Feb. 27, 3:00 Final Discussion

  8. PVMRW2013 Discussion notes Tues. Feb. 26 2013, 2:30 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    notes Tues. Feb. 26 2013, 2:30 PVMRW2013 Discussion notes Tues. Feb. 26 2013, 2:30 Some participants felt that modules should not be walked on... discussionnotes_tues_230.pdf (103.99 KB) More Documents & Publications PVMRW2013 Discussion notes: Tues. Feb. 26: 10:45

  9. PVMRW2013 Discussion notes: Tues. Feb. 26: 10:45 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    notes: Tues. Feb. 26: 10:45 PVMRW2013 Discussion notes: Tues. Feb. 26: 10:45 If the mechanical properties of the parts of the module... discussionnotes_tues_1045.pdf (109.89 KB) More Documents & Publications PVMRW2013 Discussion notes Tues. Feb. 26 2013, 2:30

  10. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  11. Groundwater Periodic Monitoring Reports | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Groundwater Periodic Monitoring Reports Groundwater Periodic Monitoring Reports Topic: David Rhodes DOE, Provided Information on the Watersheds at LANL and the Monitoring Schedule ...

  12. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  13. V-211: IBM iNotes Multiple Vulnerabilities | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1: IBM iNotes Multiple Vulnerabilities V-211: IBM iNotes Multiple Vulnerabilities August 5, 2013 - 6:00am Addthis PROBLEM: Multiple vulnerabilities have been reported in IBM Lotus iNotes PLATFORM: IBM iNotes 9.x ABSTRACT: IBM iNotes has two cross-site scripting vulnerabilities and an ActiveX Integer overflow vulnerability REFERENCE LINKS: Secunia Advisory SA54436 IBM Security Bulletin 1645503 CVE-2013-3027 CVE-2013-3032 CVE-2013-3990 IMPACT ASSESSMENT: High DISCUSSION: 1) Certain input related

  14. V-229: IBM Lotus iNotes Input Validation Flaws Permit Cross-Site Scripting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Attacks | Department of Energy 9: IBM Lotus iNotes Input Validation Flaws Permit Cross-Site Scripting Attacks V-229: IBM Lotus iNotes Input Validation Flaws Permit Cross-Site Scripting Attacks August 28, 2013 - 6:00am Addthis PROBLEM: Several vulnerabilities were reported in IBM Lotus iNotes PLATFORM: IBM Lotus iNotes 8.5.x ABSTRACT: IBM Lotus iNotes 8.5.x contains four cross-site scripting vulnerabilities REFERENCE LINKS: Security Tracker Alert ID 1028954 IBM Security Bulletin 1647740

  15. Property:Maximum Wave Height(m) at Wave Period(s) | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    at Wave Period(s) Jump to: navigation, search Property Name Maximum Wave Height(m) at Wave Period(s) Property Type String Pages using the property "Maximum Wave Height(m) at Wave...

  16. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  17. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  18. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  19. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  20. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  1. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  2. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  3. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Report forecasting the U.S. energy savings of LED white-light sources compared to conventional white-light sources (i.e., incandescent, halogen, fluorescent, and high-intensity discharge) over the...

  4. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  5. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below 3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly ...

  6. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  7. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  8. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  9. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  10. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  11. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  12. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  13. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  14. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and

  15. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  16. PVMRW2013 Wed., Feb. 27, 1:45 Discussion notes | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1:45 Discussion notes PVMRW2013 Wed., Feb. 27, 1:45 Discussion notes It could be useful to mix UVA and UVB and test the effects of both at the same time... discussionnotes_weds_145.pdf (118.88 KB) More Documents & Publications PVMRW2013 Wed., Feb. 27, 10:00 Discussion notes: PVMRW2013 Wed., Feb. 27, 3:00 Final Discussion

  17. CEM_Metrics_and_Technical_Note_7_14_10.pdf | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    CEM_Metrics_and_Technical_Note_7_14_10.pdf CEM_Metrics_and_Technical_Note_7_14_10.pdf (129.47 KB) More Documents & Publications SEAD-Fact-Sheet.pdf Schematics of a heat pump clothes dryer<br /> Credit: Oak Ridge National Lab Heat Pump Clothes Dryer CEM_Metrics_and_Technical_Note_7_14_10.pdf Wind Vision: A New Era for Wind Power in the United States

  18. SES Probationary Period | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Probationary Period SES Probationary Period An individual's initial appointment as an SES career appointee becomes final only after the individual has served a 1-year probationary period as a career appointee. That employee's rating official must perform an assessment of the new SES's performance during the probationary period. After the one year the selecting official must certify that the appointee performed at the level of excellence expected of a senior executive during the probationary

  19. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and

  20. A highly specific test for periodicity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ansmann, Gerrit

    2015-11-15

    We present a method that allows to distinguish between nearly periodic and strictly periodic time series. To this purpose, we employ a conservative criterion for periodicity, namely, that the time series can be interpolated by a periodic function whose local extrema are also present in the time series. Our method is intended for the analysis of time series generated by deterministic time-continuous dynamical systems, where it can help telling periodic dynamics from chaotic or transient ones. We empirically investigate our method's performance and compare it to an approach based on marker events (or Poincaré sections). We demonstrate that our method is capable of detecting small deviations from periodicity and outperforms the marker-event-based approach in typical situations. Our method requires no adjustment of parameters to the individual time series, yields the period length with a precision that exceeds the sampling rate, and its runtime grows asymptotically linear with the length of the time series.

  1. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  2. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zulkepli, Jafri Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

    2015-12-11

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

  3. Seismic isolation of two dimensional periodic foundations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yan, Y.; Mo, Y. L.; Laskar, A.; Cheng, Z.; Shi, Z.; Menq, F.; Tang, Y.

    2014-07-28

    Phononic crystal is now used to control acoustic waves. When the crystal goes to a larger scale, it is called periodic structure. The band gaps of the periodic structure can be reduced to range from 0.5?Hz to 50?Hz. Therefore, the periodic structure has potential applications in seismic wave reflection. In civil engineering, the periodic structure can be served as the foundation of upper structure. This type of foundation consisting of periodic structure is called periodic foundation. When the frequency of seismic waves falls into the band gaps of the periodic foundation, the seismic wave can be blocked. Field experiments of a scaled two dimensional (2D) periodic foundation with an upper structure were conducted to verify the band gap effects. Test results showed the 2D periodic foundation can effectively reduce the response of the upper structure for excitations with frequencies within the frequency band gaps. When the experimental and the finite element analysis results are compared, they agree well with each other, indicating that 2D periodic foundation is a feasible way of reducing seismic vibrations.

  4. EnPI V4.0 Release Notes and Known Issues | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    notes and known issues for the Energy Performance Indicator (EnPI) Tool v4.0. EnPI Release Notes and Known Issues (101.66 KB) More Documents & Publications EnPI V4.0 User Manual

  5. PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 4 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 4 April 6, 2015 PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 4 VIEW PERIODICAL HERE

  6. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  7. Optimal observation time window for forecasting the next earthquake

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omi, Takahiro; Shinomoto, Shigeru; Kanter, Ido

    2011-02-15

    We report that the accuracy of predicting the occurrence time of the next earthquake is significantly enhanced by observing the latest rate of earthquake occurrences. The observation period that minimizes the temporal uncertainty of the next occurrence is on the order of 10 hours. This result is independent of the threshold magnitude and is consistent across different geographic areas. This time scale is much shorter than the months or years that have previously been considered characteristic of seismic activities.

  8. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models

  9. Do triatomic molecules echo atomic periodicity?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hefferlin, R. Barrow, J.

    2015-03-30

    Demonstrations of periodicity among triatomic-molecular spectroscopic constants underscore the role of the periodic law as a foundation of chemistry. The objective of this work is to prepare for another test using vibration frequencies ?{sub 1} of free, ground-state, main-group triatomic molecules. Using data from four data bases and from computation, we have collected ?{sub 1} data for molecules formed from second period atoms.

  10. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  11. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  12. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year Rising crude oil prices are likely to be passed on to consumers at the pump, but U.S. drivers are still expected to pay the lowest summer gasoline prices since 2004, and for all of 2016 the average household will spend $900 less on gasoline than it did two years ago." In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average

  13. Physics division. Progress report for period ending September 30, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ball, S.J.

    1997-04-01

    This report covers the research and development activities of the Physics Division for the 1995 and 1996 fiscal years, beginning October 1, 1994, and ending September 30, 1996. The activities of the Division continue to be concentrated in the areas of experimental nuclear physics, experimental atomic physics, and theoretical nuclear and atomic physics. In addition, there are smaller programs in plasma diagnostics and data compilation and evaluation. During the period of this report, there has been considerable success in bringing the Holifield Radioactive Ion Beam Facility (HRIBF) into routine operation. The budgets of the nuclear physics portion of the Division have increased each year in nearly all areas, and several new members have been added to the Division research and development staff. On August 30, 1996, the HRIBF successfully accelerated its first radioactive ion beams, {sup 69}As and {sup 70}As. Prior to this, the heart of the facility, the RIB injector system, was completed, including installation of a remote handling system for the target/ion source assembly. Target and ion source development is likely to be the technical key to success of the HRIBF. We have expanded our efforts in those development areas. Of special note is the development of highly permeable composite targets which have now been shown to allow release of difficult-to-produce radioactive ions such as {sup 17,18}F. A summary of the HRIBF work is provided in Chapter 1, along with supporting activities of the Joint Institute for Heavy Ion Research.

  14. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  15. This Week In Petroleum Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    over the forecast period, it may be more important to note that EIA expects WTI to stay well above 40 per barrel through all of 2006, and that WTI is expected to be around...

  16. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  17. PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 2 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Vol. 6, Issue 2 December 1, 2014 PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 2 View Periodical Here

  18. PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 3 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Vol. 6, Issue 3 February 9, 2015 PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 3 View Periodical Here

  19. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  20. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  1. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  2. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  3. Variable-Period Undulators For Synchrotron Radiation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Gopal; Lewellen, John; Shu, Deming; Vinokurov, Nikolai

    2005-02-22

    A new and improved undulator design is provided that enables a variable period length for the production of synchrotron radiation from both medium-energy and high-energy storage rings. The variable period length is achieved using a staggered array of pole pieces made up of high permeability material, permanent magnet material, or an electromagnetic structure. The pole pieces are separated by a variable width space. The sum of the variable width space and the pole width would therefore define the period of the undulator. Features and advantages of the invention include broad photon energy tunability, constant power operation and constant brilliance operation.

  4. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence determination of a waste tank criticality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-08-02

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis forcriticality consequences for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report(FSAR). Criticality scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  5. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-09

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  6. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  7. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence determination of a waste tank criticality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for criticality consequences for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Criticality scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  8. Publisher's Note: New mechanism for the top-bottom mass hierarchy...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    New mechanism for the top-bottom mass hierarchy Phys. Rev. D 70, 055006 (2004) Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Publisher's Note: New mechanism for the top-bottom mass ...

  9. Mo Year Report Period: EIA ID NUMBER:

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Mo Year Report Period: EIA ID NUMBER: http:www.eia.govsurveyformeia14instructions.pdf Mailing Address: Secure File Transfer option available at: (e.g., PO Box, RR) https:...

  10. Total Estimated Contract Cost: Performance Period

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    FY2012 Fee Information Minimum Fee Maximum Fee September 2015 Contract Number: Cost Plus Incentive Fee Contractor: 3,264,909,094 Contract Period: EM Contractor Fee s Idaho...

  11. Long-period solar-terrestrial variability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sonett, C.P. )

    1991-01-01

    Studies aimed at extending the record of solar-terrestrial variability to longer periods are discussed in a critical review of US research from the period 1987--1990. Sections are devoted to the sunspot index, radioactive carbon studies, a potential climate connection between radiocarbon changes and the solar irradiance cycle, Be-10 studies, geological laminae, solar neutrino counts, and the construction of data sets. Also included is a selective bibliography. 66 refs.

  12. Scheduled Maintenance Periods | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Scheduled Maintenance Periods The CNM holds three maintenance periods per year. During these times certain CNM facilities may not be available for user activities. The Sector 26 beamline will not be available, the High-Performance Computing Cluster and nanofabrication facilities often are not available, and other facilities may undergo maintenance for only one or two days. Please contact your CNM Scientific Contact prior to arrival and plan your work visits and schedules accordingly. To better

  13. Geothermal Industry Ends 2012 on a High Note | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Ends 2012 on a High Note Geothermal Industry Ends 2012 on a High Note December 18, 2012 - 12:14pm Addthis Year-end highlights include new domestic projects, international development and policy benchmarks Washington, D.C. - The past 12 months saw continued economic challenges for many American industries, including those in the renewable energy field, but the country's geothermal community witnessed a year of growth, both domestically and abroad. The Geothermal Energy Association (GEA) today

  14. The art and science of magnet design: Selected notes of Klaus Halbach. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-02-01

    This volume contains a compilation of 57 notes written by Dr. Klaus Halbach selected from his collection of over 1650 such documents. It provides an historic snapshot of the evolution of magnet technology and related fields as the notes range from as early as 1965 to the present, and is intended to show the breadth of Dr. Halbach`s interest and ability that have long been an inspiration to his many friends and colleagues. As Halbach is an experimental physicist whose scientific interests span many areas, and who does his most innovative work with pencil and paper rather than at the workbench or with a computer, the vast majority of the notes in this volume were handwritten and their content varies greatly--some reflect original work or work for a specific project, while others are mere clarifications of mathematical calculations or design specifications. As the authors converted the notes to electronic form, some were superficially edited and corrected, while others were extensively re-written to reflect current knowledge and notation. The notes are organized under five categories which reflect their primary content: Beam Position Monitors, (bpm), Current Sheet Electron Magnets (csem), Magnet Theory, (thry), Undulators and Wigglers (u-w), and Miscellaneous (misc). Within the category, they are presented chronologically starting from the most recent note and working backwards in time.

  15. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  16. THE CATALINA SURVEYS PERIODIC VARIABLE STAR CATALOG

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drake, A. J.; Graham, M. J.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Mahabal, A. A.; Donalek, C.; Williams, R.; Catelan, M.; Torrealba, G.; García-Álvarez, D.; Prieto, J. L.; Beshore, E.; Larson, S.; Christen sen, E.; Boattini, A.; Gibbs, A.; Hill, R.; Kowalski, R.; Johnson, J.; Belokurov, V.; Koposov, S. E.; and others

    2014-07-01

    We present ∼47,000 periodic variables found during the analysis of 5.4 million variable star candidates within a 20,000 deg{sup 2} region covered by the Catalina Surveys Data Release-1 (CSDR1). Combining these variables with type ab RR Lyrae from our previous work, we produce an online catalog containing periods, amplitudes, and classifications for ∼61,000 periodic variables. By cross-matching these variables with those from prior surveys, we find that >90% of the ∼8000 known periodic variables in the survey region are recovered. For these sources, we find excellent agreement between our catalog and prior values of luminosity, period, and amplitude as well as classification. We investigate the rate of confusion between objects classified as contact binaries and type c RR Lyrae (RRc's) based on periods, colors, amplitudes, metallicities, radial velocities, and surface gravities. We find that no more than a few percent of the variables in these classes are misidentified. By deriving distances for this clean sample of ∼5500 RRc's, we trace the path of the Sagittarius tidal streams within the Galactic halo. Selecting 146 outer-halo RRc's with SDSS radial velocities, we confirm the presence of a coherent halo structure that is inconsistent with current N-body simulations of the Sagittarius tidal stream. We also find numerous long-period variables that are very likely associated within the Sagittarius tidal stream system. Based on the examination of 31,000 contact binary light curves we find evidence for two subgroups exhibiting irregular light curves. One subgroup presents significant variations in mean brightness that are likely due to chromospheric activity. The other subgroup shows stable modulations over more than a thousand days and thereby provides evidence that the O'Connell effect is not due to stellar spots.

  17. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  18. Periodic subsystem density-functional theory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Genova, Alessandro; Pavanello, Michele; Ceresoli, Davide

    2014-11-07

    By partitioning the electron density into subsystem contributions, the Frozen Density Embedding (FDE) formulation of subsystem Density Functional Theory (DFT) has recently emerged as a powerful tool for reducing the computational scaling of Kohn–Sham DFT. To date, however, FDE has been employed to molecular systems only. Periodic systems, such as metals, semiconductors, and other crystalline solids have been outside the applicability of FDE, mostly because of the lack of a periodic FDE implementation. To fill this gap, in this work we aim at extending FDE to treat subsystems of molecular and periodic character. This goal is achieved by a dual approach. On one side, the development of a theoretical framework for periodic subsystem DFT. On the other, the realization of the method into a parallel computer code. We find that periodic FDE is capable of reproducing total electron densities and (to a lesser extent) also interaction energies of molecular systems weakly interacting with metallic surfaces. In the pilot calculations considered, we find that FDE fails in those cases where there is appreciable density overlap between the subsystems. Conversely, we find FDE to be in semiquantitative agreement with Kohn–Sham DFT when the inter-subsystem density overlap is low. We also conclude that to make FDE a suitable method for describing molecular adsorption at surfaces, kinetic energy density functionals that go beyond the GGA level must be employed.

  19. Magnetomechanically induced long period fiber gratings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Causado-Buelvas, Jesus D.; Gomez-Cardona, Nelson D.; Torres, Pedro

    2008-04-15

    In this work, we report a simple, flexible method to create long period fiber gratings mechanically by controlling the repulsion/attraction force between two magnets that pressing a plate with a periodic array of small glass cylinders to a short length of optical fiber. Via the photoelastic effect, the pressure points induce the required periodic refractive index modulation to create the LPFG. We found that the induced device exhibits spectral characteristics similar to those of other types of LPFG. As the optical properties of LPFGs are directly related to the nature of the applied perturbations, we show, to our knowledge for the frrst time, how is the evolution of birefringence effects in mechanically induced LPFGs.

  20. Off-site Intensive Operational Period

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2 ARM Participating in Off-site Intensive Operational Period The ARM Program is playing a role in the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) intensive operational period (IOP), under way through July in South Florida. The objective of CRYSTAL-FACE is to investigate the physical properties and formation processes of tropical cirrus clouds. The ARM Program has deployed a suite of ground-based instruments in Florida for CRYSTAL-FACE

  1. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  2. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below

  3. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  4. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO

  5. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we

  6. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  7. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  8. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  9. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  10. Quantum transport calculations using periodic boundaryconditions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Lin-Wang

    2004-06-15

    An efficient new method is presented to calculate the quantum transports using periodic boundary conditions. This method allows the use of conventional ground state ab initio programs without big changes. The computational effort is only a few times of a normal groundstate calculations, thus is makes accurate quantum transport calculations for large systems possible.

  11. Contract Periods of Performance Exceeding 5 Years

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Acquisition Letter 2010-5 has been revised to update references, make minor editorial changes, and clarify that the Director, Field Assistance and Oversight Division is the approval authority within Department of Energy for acquisition plans that contemplate a period of performance greater than 5 years.

  12. Performance Period Total Fee Paid FY2008

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    1,339,286 FY 2012 38,126 FY 2013 42,265 Cumulative Fee Paid 1,766,600 42,265 Cost Plus Incentive FeeCost Plus Fixed Fee 36,602,425 Contract Period: September 2007 -...

  13. SEMIREGULAR VARIABLES WITH PERIODS LYING BETWEEN THE PERIOD-LUMINOSITY SEQUENCES C', C, AND D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Soszynski, I.; Wood, P. R. E-mail: wood@mso.anu.edu.au

    2013-02-15

    We analyze the distribution of semiregular variables and Mira stars in the period-luminosity plane. Our sample consists of 6169 oxygen-rich long-period variables in the Large Magellanic Cloud included in the OGLE-III Catalog of Variable Stars. There are many stars with periods that lie between the well-known sequences C and C'. Most of these stars are multi-periodic and the period ratios suggest that these stars oscillate in the same mode as the sequence C stars. Models suggest that this mode is the fundamental radial pulsation mode. The stars with primary periods between sequences C and C' preferentially lie on an additional sequence (named F), and a large fraction of these stars also have long secondary periods (LSPs) that lie between sequences C and D. There are also a small number of stars with primary periods lying between sequences C and D. The origin of this long-period variability is unknown, as is the cause of sequence D variability. In addition, the origin of sequence F is unknown but we speculate that sequence F variability may be excited by the same phenomenon that causes the LSPs.

  14. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  15. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  16. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  17. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  18. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  19. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  20. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  1. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  2. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID tomore » build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

  3. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

  4. L3: RTM.MCH.P6.02 Technical Note RNSD-00-

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    RTM.MCH.P6.02 Technical Note RNSD-00- 000: Evaluating the Denovo SPN Discretization, Rev 1 Tom Evans Oak Ridge National Laboratory April 5, 2013 CASL-U-2014-0083-000 Technical Note Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division Radiation Transport Group From: Tom Evans, Steven Hamilton Number: RNSD-00-000 Date: April 5, 2013 Subject: Evaluating the Denovo SP N Discretization (Rev. 1) Executive Summary This document describes a preliminary assessment of the SP N discretization in Denovo. Comparison to

  5. Periodically distributed objects with quasicrystalline diffraction pattern

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wolny, Janusz Strzalka, Radoslaw; Kuczera, Pawel

    2015-03-30

    It is possible to construct fully periodically distributed objects with a diffraction pattern identical to the one obtained for quasicrystals. These objects are probability distributions of distances obtained in the statistical approach to aperiodic structures distributed periodically. The diffraction patterns have been derived by using a two-mode Fourier transform—a very powerful method not used in classical crystallography. It is shown that if scaling is present in the structure, this two-mode Fourier transform can be reduced to a regular Fourier transform with appropriately rescaled scattering vectors and added phases. Detailed case studies for model sets 1D Fibonacci chain and 2D Penrose tiling are discussed. Finally, it is shown that crystalline, quasicrystalline, and approximant structures can be treated in the same way.

  6. DOE'S geothermal division: A period of transition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jelacic, Allan J.; Reed, Marshall

    1996-01-24

    The transition that the Department of Energy's geothemal research program is undergoing is discussed. This transitional period began last year and will continue at least through final implementation of the Department's reorganization and downsizing. Current and recently completed R&D programs are reviewed. New initiatives are outlined. The foci and direction of the Division's activities of particular interest to the geothermal research community are addressed.

  7. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    FUSRAP NJ.18 Exxon Research and Engineering Company The Former Standard Oil Development Company Linden, New Jersey Site Function In the spring of 1942, Standard Oil Development ...

  8. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    2, 1990 TO: W. Alexander Williams FROM: Don Mackenzie &d> SUBJECT: Elimination of 3 Facilities from FUSRAP Enclosed are elimination recommendations for Vitro Chemical Co.,...

  9. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    January 15, 1991 TO: Alexander Williams FROM: Dan Stout@ SUBJECT: Gruen Watch Company Consideration Recommendation Attached for your review is a consideration recommendation for...

  10. Explanatory Notes

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    data at a State level on 14 petroleum products for various retail and wholesale marketing categories. The Form EIA-782B collects resellerretailer monthly price and volume...

  11. TECHNICAL NOTE

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The resulting system bandwidth is slightly less than 80 nm (see Fig. 2 for a sample spectrum). Use of the fiber-optic coupler and microchannel plate does not seriously...

  12. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    ... Coal ash as : iightly elevated levels of naturally occurring uranium , radium , and thorium which ZXK voted during coal combustion. Nevertheless, several auger samples (Al5 through ...

  13. EDITORS NOTE:

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    ... in both alternative fuels and energy ... in biofuels, fuel blends, plug-in hybrids, and more effcient vehicle technologies could ... Social and Economic Trends Perhaps the ...

  14. Explanatory Notes

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    complete enumera- tion has the same nonsampling errors as the sample survey. The sampling error, or standard error of the estimate, is a measure of the variability among the...

  15. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    ... It is proposed that the Commission pay 4. 50 per pound of contained uranium oxide (U3C31, such pay- .ment to be in addition to a price, f. o. b. Chattanooga, TZM. , of 4. 25 per ...

  16. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    A telephone interview was conducted with a former Baker-Perkins employee who joined the company in the mid-1970's (see attached Contact Report). The person interviewed was not ...

  17. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    ...u; a&d de& o* CITY: de54 LPv ---...w-e-- STATE: CIA ------ OWNER(S) Current: 3 H bwd, ---... Owner contacted 0 yes PO; ...

  18. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    Source Material q Residue 0 Natural Radioactive Material from Non-Nuclear Activities 0 Man-Made 0 Other--- Comment ---...

  19. Pulsation modes of long-period variables in the period-luminosity plane

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Soszyński, I.; Udalski, A.; Wood, P. R. E-mail: udalski@astrouw.edu.pl

    2013-12-20

    We present a phenomenological analysis of long-period variables (LPVs) in the Large Magellanic Cloud with the aim of detecting pulsation modes associated with different period-luminosity (PL) relations. Among brighter LPVs, we discover a group of triple-mode semi-regular variables with the fundamental, first-overtone, and second-overtone modes simultaneously excited, which fall on PL sequences C, C', and B, respectively. The mode identification in the fainter red giants is more complicated. We demonstrate that the fundamental-mode pulsators partly overlap with the first-overtone modes. We show a possible range of fundamental mode and first overtone periods in the PL diagram.

  20. Regular oscillations and random motion of glass microspheres levitated by a single optical beam in air: Publisher’s note

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Moore, Jeremy; Martin, Leopoldo L.; Maayani, Shai; Kim, Kyu Hyun; Chandrahalim, Hengky; Eichenfield, Matt; Martin, Inocencio R.; Carmon, Tal

    2016-02-19

    The publisher’s note amends a recent publication [Opt. Express 24(3), 2850–2857 (2016)] to include Acknowledgments.

  1. Microsoft PowerPoint - DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points in notes

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    [Read-Only] | Department of Energy DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points in notes [Read-Only] Microsoft PowerPoint - DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points in notes [Read-Only] Microsoft PowerPoint - DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points in notes [Read-Only] (2.08 MB) More Documents & Publications Example BCP Template Microsoft PowerPoint - DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points in notes [Read-Only] CD-2, Approve Performance Baseline External Independent Review (EIR) Standard Operating

  2. Down-hole periodic seismic generator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hardee, H.C.; Hills, R.G.; Striker, R.P.

    1982-10-28

    A down hole periodic seismic generator system is disclosed for transmitting variable frequency, predominantly shear-wave vibration into earth strata surrounding a borehole. The system comprises a unitary housing operably connected to a well head by support and electrical cabling and contains clamping apparatus for selectively clamping the housing to the walls of the borehole. The system further comprises a variable speed pneumatic oscillator and a self-contained pneumatic reservoir for producing a frequency-swept seismic output over a discrete frequency range.

  3. Workshop Notes from ""Compressed Natural Gas and Hydrogen Fuels: Lessons Learned for the Safe Deployment of Vehicles"" Workshop, December 10-11, 2009

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    These notes provide information about the Compressed Natural Gas and Hydrogen Fuels workshop in December 2009.

  4. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  5. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to

  6. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  7. Property:Building/EndPeriod | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    EndPeriod Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Date. End of the period (last day of the month) Pages using the property "BuildingEndPeriod" Showing 25 pages...

  8. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  9. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    7a. Space Heating by Census Region and Climate Zone, Million U.S. Households, 1993 Space Heating Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Census Region Climate Zone RSE Row Factors Northeast Midwest South West Fewer than 2,000 CDD and -- More than 2,000 CDD and Few- er than 4,000 HDD More than 7,000 HDD 5,500 to 7,000 HDD 4,000 to 5,499 HDD Few- er than 4,000 HDD 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Total ................................................. 96.6 19.5 23.3 33.5 20.4 8.7 26.5

  10. EIS-0374: Notice of Extension of Comment Period | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Comment Period EIS-0374: Notice of Extension of Comment Period Klondike IIIBiglow Canyon Wind Integration Project This notice extends the close of comment for scoping from the...

  11. Nanoscale Periodic Modulations on Sodium Chloride Induced by...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Nanoscale Periodic Modulations on Sodium Chloride Induced by Surface Charges Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Nanoscale Periodic Modulations on Sodium ...

  12. Negative Effective Gravity in Water Waves by Periodic Resonator...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Negative Effective Gravity in Water Waves by Periodic Resonator Arrays Prev Next Title: Negative Effective Gravity in Water Waves by Periodic Resonator Arrays Authors: Hu,...

  13. Periodic Trends in Highly Dispersed Groups IV and V Supported...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Periodic Trends in Highly Dispersed Groups IV and V Supported Metal Oxide Catalysts for ... Title: Periodic Trends in Highly Dispersed Groups IV and V Supported Metal Oxide Catalysts ...

  14. High Pressure Fuel Storage Cylinders Periodic Inspection and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Fuel Storage Cylinders Periodic Inspection and End of Life Issues High Pressure Fuel Storage Cylinders Periodic Inspection and End of Life Issues These slides were presented at the ...

  15. Logic elements for reactor period meter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    McDowell, William P.; Bobis, James P.

    1976-01-01

    Logic elements are provided for a reactor period meter trip circuit. For one element, first and second inputs are applied to first and second chopper comparators, respectively. The output of each comparator is O if the input applied to it is greater than or equal to a trip level associated with each input and each output is a square wave of frequency f if the input applied to it is less than the associated trip level. The outputs of the comparators are algebraically summed and applied to a bandpass filter tuned to f. For another element, the output of each comparator is applied to a bandpass filter which is tuned to f to give a sine wave of frequency f. The outputs of the filters are multiplied by an analog multiplier whose output is 0 if either input is 0 and a sine wave of frequency 2f if both inputs are a frequency f.

  16. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  17. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  18. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  19. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  20. EPICS release 3.11.6 specific documentation -- Release notes for EPICS 3.11.6

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1994-06-07

    These notes cover the following: (1) directions for switching to production APS release R3.11.6; (2) unbundling of channel access clients; (3) access security; (4) channel access additions; synchronous time support; and (5) description of major differences between R3.11.3 and R3.11.6 Also included is a list of new and/or updated documentation for the program.

  1. LLW (Low-Level Waste) Notes, Volume 13, Number 1, February 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-02-01

    LLW Notes is a newsletter distributed to Low-Level Radioactive Waste Forum Participants and other state and compact officials. The LLW Forum provides an opportunity for state and compact officials to share information with one another and to exchange views with officials of federal agencies and other interested parties. This issue focuses on the following topics: DOI approves Ward Valley permit application; Project evidentiary hearings begin in Texas; and Summary judgment motions in California breach of contract action.

  2. U.S. Department of Energy Onboard Storage Tank Workshop Notes

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    U.S. Department of Energy Onboard Storage Tank Workshop Workshop Notes April 29, 2010 Sandia National Laboratories - Livermore, CA 2 Report from the Onboard Storage Tank Workshop Livermore, CA April 29 th , 2010 The Onboard Storage Tank Workshop was held on April 29 th , 2010, at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Livermore, CA. The Workshop was co-hosted by SNL and the United States Department of Energy (DOE). The purpose of the Workshop was to identify key issues including research and

  3. COLLOQUIUM - NOTE SPECIAL TIME OF 3:15PM: Savannah River National

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Laboratory: Underpinning Critical National Missions | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab May 15, 2013, 3:15pm to 5:30pm Colloquia MBG Auditorium COLLOQUIUM - NOTE SPECIAL TIME OF 3:15PM: Savannah River National Laboratory: Underpinning Critical National Missions Dr. Jeff Griffin Savannah River National Laboratory The Cold War mission of the Savannah River Site in South Carolina was to produce nuclear materials for the national defense. Since the Cold War ended, SRS has continued to ensure United

  4. COLLOQUIUM - PLEASE NOTE SPECIAL DATE/TIME: The Magnetospheric MultiScale

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mission Investigation of Magnetic Reconnection | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab February 21, 2013, 10:30am to 12:00pm Colloquia MBG Auditorium COLLOQUIUM - PLEASE NOTE SPECIAL DATE/TIME: The Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission Investigation of Magnetic Reconnection Professor Roy Torbert University of New Hampshire Presentation: File TC21FEB2013_RBTorbert_COMPRESSED.pptx In late fall 2014, NASA will launch the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission to study the kinetic physics of magnetic

  5. Developing an industrial end-use forecast: A case study at the Los Angeles department of water and power

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mureau, T.H.; Francis, D.M.

    1995-05-01

    The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) uses INFORM 1.0 to forecast industrial sector energy. INFORM 1.0 provides an end-use framework that can be used to forecast electricity, natural gas or other fuels consumption. Included with INFORM 1.0 is a default date set including the input data and equations necessary to solve each model. LADWP has substituted service area specific data for the default data wherever possible. This paper briefly describes the steps LADWP follows in developing those inputs and application in INFORM 1.0.

  6. PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 6 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center 6, Issue 6 August 20, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 6

  7. PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 1 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center 7, Issue 1 October 12, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 1

  8. PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 2 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center 2 December 7, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 2 VIEW ARTICLE HERE

  9. PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 3 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center 3 February 16, 2016 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 3 VIEW ARTICLE HERE

  10. L4:PHI.REL.P8.01 VERA Release Notes ID: 2013 VERA RSICC Release

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    L4:PHI.REL.P8.01 VERA Release Notes ID: 2013 VERA RSICC Release (VERA 3.2) Matt Sieger Oak Ridge National Laboratory November 16, 2013 CASL-U-2014-0172-000 DRAFT VERA Release Notes Document VERA Release Notes (DRAFT) Release ID 2013 VERA RSICC Release (VERA 3.2) Release Date Sept. 30, 2013 Support Information Email questions or comments to the VERA development team at casl-support@CASL.gov 1. Introduction VERA, a "Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications", is a collection of

  11. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  12. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  13. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB Veteran-Owned SB Service Disabled Vet. SB FY 2009 Dollars Goal (projected) $183,949,920 $82,690,000 $4,550,000 $8,829,596 $3,370,000 $5,025,000 $460,000 FY 2009 Dollars Accomplished $143,846,731 $68,174,398 $9,247,214 $11,333,905 $4,979,858 $6,713,791 $1,612,136 FY 2009 % Goal 45.0% 2.5% 4.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.25% FY

  14. Electric-utility DSM programs: 1990 data and forecasts to 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hirst, E.

    1992-06-01

    In April 1992, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data on 1989 and 1990 electric-utility demand-site management (DMS) programs. These data represent a census of US utility DSM programs, with reports of utility expenditures, energy savings, and load reductions caused by these programs. In addition, EIA published utility estimates of the costs and effects of these programs from 1991 to 2000. These data provide the first comprehensive picture of what utilities are spending and accomplishing by utility, state, and region. This report presents, summarizes, and interprets the 1990 data and the utility forecasts of their DSM-program expenditures and impacts to the year 2000. Only utilities with annual sales greater than 120 GWh were required to report data on their DSM programs to EIA. Of the 1194 such utilities, 363 reported having a DSM program that year. These 363 electric utilities spent $1.2 billion on their DSM programs in 1990, up from $0.9 billion in 1989. Estimates of energy savings (17,100 GWh in 1990 and 14,800 GWh in 1989) and potential reductions in peak demand (24,400 MW in 1990 and about 19,400 MW in 1989) also showed substantial increases. Overall, utility DSM expenditures accounted for 0.7% of total US electric revenues, while the reductions in energy and demand accounted for 0.6% and 4.9% of their respective 1990 national totals. The investor-owned utilities accounted for 70 to 90% of the totals for DSM costs, energy savings, and demand reductions. The public utilities reported larger percentage reductions in peak demand and energy smaller percentage DSM expenditures. These averages hide tremendous variations across utilities. Utility forecasts of DSM expenditures and effects show substantial growth in both absolute and relative terms.

  15. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J. -J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Garcia-Pando, C. Perez; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; et al

    2016-04-21

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distributionmore » was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. In this paper, our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.« less

  16. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed windmore » speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.« less

  17. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed wind speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.

  18. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  19. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  20. Note: Design principles of a linear array multi-channel effusive metal-vapor atom source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jana, B.; Majumder, A.; Thakur, K. B.; Das, A. K.

    2013-10-15

    Atomic beams can easily be produced by allowing atoms to effuse through a channel. In an earlier investigation [A. Majumder et al., Vacuum 83, 989 (2009)], we had designed, fabricated, and characterized an effusive metal-vapor source using collinear-array of multi-channel. In this note, we describe the theoretical basis of designing the source. Atom density in atomic beam has been estimated using a set of analytical expressions for long-channel operated in transparent mode. Parametric studies on aspect ratio of channel, inter-channel separation, beam width, and vertical distance from the source are carried out. They are useful in providing physical picture and optimizing design parameters.

  1. MicroBooNE Detector Stability MICROBOONE-NOTE-1013-PUB The MicroBooNE

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    MicroBooNE Detector Stability MICROBOONE-NOTE-1013-PUB The MicroBooNE Collaboration June 30, 2016 Abstract The Micro Booster Neutrino Experiment (MicroBooNE) is designed to explore the low- energy excess in the ν e event spectrum reported by the MiniBooNE experiment [1] and to measure ν-Ar cross sections in the 1 GeV energy range. The detector is a liquid argon time projection chamber with wire readout, supplemented with a light detection system based on photo-multiplier tubes (PMTs). The

  2. Hanford Advisory Board FY2014 Work Plan - "A" List - Facilitator notes o

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Facilitator notes on midyear status for RAP-lead topics (updated 4/30/14) These are the priority topics that the Board is expected to take action on in FY2014, as agreed to by the TPA and the Board. The timing of these topics drives the need for committee meetings. Their status may change to "topics of interest" if they are delayed or deferred, and if there is agreement to do so among the EIC and Agency Liaisons. Adopted by Consensus, September 6, 2013 Page 1 of 12 Priority Topics -

  3. Summary Notes from 5 March 2008 Generic Technical Issue Discussion on Long-Term Grout Performance

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    6, 2008 Page 1 of 6 Summary Notes from 5 March 2008 Generic Technical Issue Discussion on Long-Term Grout Performance Attendees: Representatives from Department of Energy-Headquarters (DOE-HQ) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff (NRC) met at the DOE offices in Germantown, Maryland on 5 March 2008. Representatives from Department of Energy- Savannah River (DOE-SR), Department of Energy-Idaho (DOE-ID), Department of Energy-Richland (DOE-RL), Department of Energy-River Protection

  4. TEC Tribal Issues Topic Group Conference Call Notes December 15, 1998 11

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Notes December 15, 1998 11 a.m.-Noon EST Participants: Audrey Adamson (UETC), Pamela DeRensis (DOE/EM-22), Margaret Hodge (DOE/AL) Robert Holden (NCAI), Judith Holm (DOE/NTPA), Jerry Pardilla (NTEC), Wilda Portner (SAIC), Elissa Turner (DOE/RW), Heather Westra (Prairie Island Indian Community) and Catherine Volk (DOE/EM). This conference call addressed a number of issues and upcoming events. Discussed: expanding Tribal participation in the Group; upcoming TEC/WG meeting in Jacksonville, Florida;

  5. Attachment 1 - PIC Transcribed Flip Chart Notes Final Meeting Summary Page 12

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    - PIC Transcribed Flip Chart Notes Final Meeting Summary Page 12 Public Involvement Committee September 4, 2013 Strategic Planning: Quarters by month * Q1: Oct. - Dec. * Q2: Jan - March * Q3: April - June * Q4: July - Sept. Page 1 Strategic Planning: 2014 Topics (Interactive activity) * = priority topic for discussion at meeting; �= priority for future discussion | Quarter prioritized for discussion (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4) * 100-F Proposed Plan | *** Q2 * 100 D-H Proposed Plan * Draft Land

  6. Neutron Physics. A Revision of I. Halpern's notes on E. Fermi's lectures in 1945

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Beckerley, J.G.

    1951-10-16

    In the Fall of 1945 a course in Neutron Physics was given by Professor Fermi as part of the program of the Los Alamos University. The course consisted of thirty lectures most of which were given by Fermi. In his absence R.F. Christy and E. Segre gave several lectures. The present revision is based upon class notes prepared by I. Halpern with some assistance by B.T. Feld and issued first as document LADC 255 and later with wider circulation as MDDC 320.

  7. Note: Rapid reduction of graphene oxide paper by glow discharge plasma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bo, Zheng; Qian, Jiajing; Duan, Liangping; Qiu, Kunzan Yan, Jianhua; Cen, Kefa; Han, Zhao Jun; Ostrikov, Kostya

    2015-05-15

    This note reports on a novel method for the rapid reduction of graphene oxide (GO) paper using a glow discharge plasma reactor. Glow discharge is produced and sustained between two parallel-plate graphite electrodes at a pressure of 240 mTorr. By exposing GO paper at the junction of negative-glow and Faraday-dark area for 4 min, the oxygen-containing groups can be effectively removed (C/O ratio increases from 2.6 to 7.9), while the material integrality and flexibility are kept well. Electrochemical measurements demonstrate that the as-obtained reduced GO paper can be potentially used for supercapacitor application.

  8. Property:Wave Period Range(s) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Property Edit with form History Property:Wave Period Range(s) Jump to: navigation, search Property Name Wave Period Range(s) Property Type String Pages using the property "Wave...

  9. Periods of Congestion in Quark Cafe During Lunch Service: June...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Periods of Congestion in Quark Cafe During Lunch Service: June 15-17 Periods of Congestion in Quark Cafe During Lunch Service: June 15-17 Quark Cafe may experience intermittent ...

  10. Property:Building/StartPeriod | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    to: navigation, search This is a property of type Date. Start of the period (first day o the month) Pages using the property "BuildingStartPeriod" Showing 25 pages using this...

  11. PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 5 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center Volume 6, Issue 5 June 3, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 5 VIEW ARTICLE HERE

  12. EIS-0431: Extension of public comment period; Notice of public...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Notice of public hearing (Correction) Hydrogen Energy California's Integrated ... Period and Public Hearing for the Hydrogen Energy California's Integrated ...

  13. EIS-0431: Extension of Public Comment Period | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Public Comment Period EIS-0431: Extension of Public Comment Period Hydrogen Energy California's Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle and Carbon Capture and Sequestration Project, CA The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published a notice of availability on July 22, 2013 (78 FR 43870) that provided for a comment period ending September 3, 2013. DOE is extending the public comment period to October 1, 2013, and announces public hearings for the Hydrogen Energy California's Integrated Gasification

  14. Recommendation 186: Option Periods in Prime Contract Language

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The inclusion of option periods in the language of all future DOE Request for Proposals for prime contracts when appropriate.

  15. PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 4 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 4 March 1, 2016 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 4 VIEW ARTICLE HERE http://us6.campaign-archive1.com/?u=8d1be2560b66e88d2fd6e4351&id=53703d9619&e=7d... News/Media PARC Periodical

  16. THEORETICAL CEPHEID PERIOD-LUMINOSITY AND PERIOD-COLOR RELATIONS IN SPITZER IRAC BANDS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ngeow, Chow-Choong; Marconi, Marcella; Musella, Ilaria; Cignoni, Michele; Kanbur, Shashsi M.

    2012-02-01

    In this paper, the synthetic period-luminosity (P-L) relations in Spitzer's IRAC bands, based on a series of theoretical pulsation models with varying metal and helium abundance, were investigated. Selected sets of these synthetic P-L relations were compared to the empirical IRAC band P-L relations recently determined from Galactic and Magellanic Clouds Cepheids. For the Galactic case, synthetic P-L relations from model sets with (Y = 0.26, Z = 0.01), (Y = 0.26, Z = 0.02), and (Y = 0.28, Z = 0.02) agree with the empirical Galactic P-L relations derived from the Hubble Space Telescope parallaxes. For Magellanic Cloud Cepheids, the synthetic P-L relations from model sets with (Y = 0.25, Z = 0.008) agree with both of the empirical Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and Small Magellanic Cloud P-L relations. Analysis of the synthetic P-L relations from all model sets suggested that the IRAC band P-L relations may not be independent of metallicity, as the P-L slopes and intercepts could be affected by the metallicity and/or helium abundance. We also derive the synthetic period-color (P-C) relations in the IRAC bands. Non-vanishing synthetic P-C relations were found for certain combinations of IRAC band filters and metallicity. However, the synthetic P-C relations disagreed with the [3.6]-[8.0] P-C relation recently found for the Galactic Cepheids. The synthetic [3.6]-[4.5] P-C slope from the (Y = 0.25, Z = 0.008) model set, on the other hand, is in excellent agreement to the empirical LMC P-C counterpart, if a period range 1.0 < log (P) < 1.8 is adopted.

  17. Notes on the Langevin model for turbulent diffusion of ``marked`` particles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rodean, H.C.

    1994-01-26

    Three models for scalar diffusion in turbulent flow (eddy diffusivity, random displacement, and on the Langevin equation) are briefly described. These models random velocity increment based Fokker-Planck equation is introduced as are then examined in more detail in the reverse order. The Fokker-Planck equation is the Eulerian equivalent of the Lagrangian Langevin equation, and the derivation of e outlined. The procedure for obtaining the deterministic and stochastic components of the Langevin equation from Kolmogorov`s 1941 inertial range theory and the Fokker-Planck equation is described. it is noted that a unique form of the Langevin equation can be determined for diffusion in one dimension but not in two or three. The Langevin equation for vertical diffusion in the non-Gaussian convective boundary layer is presented and successively simplified for Gaussian inhomogeneous turbulence and Gaussian homogeneous turbulence in turn. The Langevin equation for Gaussian inhomogeneous turbulence is mathematically transformed into the random displacement model. It is shown how the Fokker-Planck equation for the random displacement model is identical in form to the partial differential equation for the eddy diffusivity model. It is noted that the Langevin model is applicable in two cases in which the other two are not valid: (1) very close in time and distance to the point of scalar release and (2) the non-Gaussian convective boundary layer. The two- and three-dimensional cases are considered in Part III.

  18. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique

  19. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter

  20. Total Estimated Contract Price: Contract Option Periods: Performance

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Price: Contract Option Periods: Performance Period Fee Earned Base Period "A" $0 Base Period "B" Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Cumulative Fee $0 EM Contractor Fee June 2015 Site: Office of River Protection, Richland, WA Contract Name: Hanford 222-S Laboratory Analysis and Testing Services Contractor: Wastren Advantage, Inc Contract Number: DE-EM0003722 Contract Type: Hybrid Contract with Award Fee Fee Available $44,562,457 Base Contract Period: November 21, 2016 to September 20,

  1. Considerations in forecasting the demand for carbon sequestration and biotic storage technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Trexler, M.C.

    1997-12-31

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has identified forestry and other land-use based mitigation measures as possible sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. An overview of sequestration and biotic storage is presented, and the potential impacts of the use of carbon sequestration as a mitigation technology are briefly noted. Carbon sequestration is also compare to other mitigation technologies. Biotic mitigation technologies are concluded to be a legitimate and potentially important part of greenhouse gas mitigation due to their relatively low costs, ancillary benefits, and climate impact. However, not all biotic mitigation techniques perfectly match the idealized definition of a mitigation measure, and policies are becoming increasingly biased against biotic technologies.

  2. Table 5.17 Strategic Petroleum Reserve, 1977-2011 (Thousand Barrels, Except as Noted)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    7 Strategic Petroleum Reserve, 1977-2011 (Thousand Barrels, Except as Noted) Year Foreign Crude Oil Receipts Domestic Crude Oil Receipts Withdrawals End-of-Year Stocks Days of Petroleum Net Imports 4 Imported by SPR Imported by Others 1,2 Purchases Exchanges 2 Sales Exchanges Quantity Percent of Crude Oil 3 Stocks Percent of Total Petroleum Stocks 1977 7,540 0 370 [5] 0 0 0 7,455 2.1 0.6 1 1978 58,798 0 0 0 0 0 66,860 17.8 5.2 8 1979 24,434 0 4 0 0 0 91,191 21.2 6.8 11 1980 16,067 0 1,296 0 0 0

  3. A Note on the Fisher Ideal Index Decomposition for Structural Change in Energy Intensity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boyd, Gale A.; Roop, Joseph M.

    2004-01-01

    By direct appeal to the theory underlying price index numbers used by the energy decomposition literature, this note proposed the chain weighted Fisher Ideal Index as a formula that solves the ''residual problem;'' i.e., the decomposition is not complete in the sense that the components do not add to the whole. The connection to index number theory also allows us to illustrate that the measures of activity used to define energy intensity need not be additive across the sectors that are involved in the decomposition. We give an empirical example using recent U. S. manufacturing data of the Fisher Ideal Index, compared to the Tornquist Divisia Index, a popular index in the energy literature.

  4. Non-Linear Transmission Line (NLTL) Microwave Source Lecture Notes the United States Particle Accelerator School

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Russell, Steven J.; Carlsten, Bruce E.

    2012-06-26

    We will quickly go through the history of the non-linear transmission lines (NLTLs). We will describe how they work, how they are modeled and how they are designed. Note that the field of high power, NLTL microwave sources is still under development, so this is just a snap shot of their current state. Topics discussed are: (1) Introduction to solitons and the KdV equation; (2) The lumped element non-linear transmission line; (3) Solution of the KdV equation; (4) Non-linear transmission lines at microwave frequencies; (5) Numerical methods for NLTL analysis; (6) Unipolar versus bipolar input; (7) High power NLTL pioneers; (8) Resistive versus reactive load; (9) Non-lineaer dielectrics; and (10) Effect of losses.

  5. EPICS release 3.11 specific documentation -- EPICS release notes for 3.11

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1994-01-19

    EPICS release 3.11 is now ready for user testing. A person who wants to set up a simplified application environment to boot an IOC and create databases using R3.11 should follow the directions in Appendix B, page 27, of the EPICS Source/Release Control Manual, Sept. 20, 1993. The R3.11 EPICS path at ANL/APS is /net/phebos/epics/R3.11 so the command to get the new release is /net/phebos/epics/R3.11/Unix/share/bin/getrel /net/phebos/epics/R3.11. An existing R3.8 short form report can be copied to this new directory and used to create a database. ANL/APS is currently testing an Application Developers Source/Release control system. It is not yet ready for general distribution. Attached are the EPICS R3.11 release notes.

  6. Meeting notes of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) futures group

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houser, M.M.

    1995-08-01

    This report is a compilation of the notes from the ten meetings. The group charter is: (1) to identify and characterize the range of possibilities and necessities for keeping the HFIR operating for at least the next 15 years; (2) to identify and characterize the range of possibilities for enhancing the scientific and technical utility of the HFIR; (3) to evaluate the benefits or impacts of these possibilities on the various scientific fields that use the HFIR or its products; (4) to evaluate the benefits or impacts on the operation and maintenance of the HFIR facility and the regulatory requirements; (5) to estimate the costs, including operating costs, and the schedules, including downtime, for these various possibilities; and one possible impact of proposed changes may be to stimulate increased pressure for a reduced enrichment fuel for HFIR.

  7. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills June 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by

  8. Periodicals collection management using a decision support system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Compton, M.L.; Moser, E.C.

    1993-12-31

    Sandia National Laboratories is a multiprogram national laboratory established in 1949. The Library currently uses DOBIS for its automated system, including the Periodicals Control function for periodical check-in. DOBIS performs processing and control functions adequately, but could not meet our reporting needs. Therefore the Library`s Periodicals Decision Team decided that they needed another ``system`` for collection management. A Periodicals Decision Support System was created using information downloaded from DOBIS and uploaded into dBASE IV. The Periodical Decision Support System functions as an information-processing system that has aided us in making collection management decisions for periodicals. It certainly allows us to do interactive ad-hoc analysis; although there are no modeling tools currently incorporated in the system. We hope that these modeling tools will come later. We have been gathering information and developing needed reports to achieve this goal.

  9. Demand forecasting and revenue requirements, with implications for consideration in British Columbia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acton, J.P.

    1983-05-01

    This paper was filed as an exhibit on behalf of The Consumers' Association of Canada (B.C. Branch), The Federated Anti-Poverty Groups of B.C., The Sierra Club of Western Canada, and the B.C. Old Age Pensioners' Organization. It was subjected to cross-examination on October 29, 1982, during Phase I of the hearings. The Utilities Commission had designated Phase I for consideration of (1) demand, (2) assets in service, (3) revenue requirements excluding return, and (4) financing and capital requirements. This paper presents a general discussion of the elements of a rate structure and their relationship to the demand for electricity, a systematic review of some 50 empirical studies of the demand for electricity as a function of price and other factors by the three principal classes of customers, and a discussion of the notion of revenue requirements. The paper should be of interest to utility regulators, rate specialists, and forecasters for its review of demand models and to academics concerned with the study of energy demand.

  10. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  11. Forecasting the oil-gasoline price relationship: should we care about the Rockets and the Feathers?

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,153 3,253 3.2% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.98 0.2% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $422 3.3% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,993 2,051 2.9% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.36 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $372 $377 1.3% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,372 2,431 2.5% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  12. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  13. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  14. PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 6 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 6 August 30, 2016 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 6 VIEW ARTICLE HERE http://us6.campaign-archive1.com/?u=8d1be2560b66e88d2fd6e4351&id=03b6c7eb11&e=41... News/Media PARC Periodical

  15. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  16. Extension of Comment Period on the Draft Integrated, Interagency...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    of Comment Period on the Draft Integrated, Interagency Pre-Application (IIP) Process for Electric Transmission Projects Requiring Federal Authorizations Extension of Comment...

  17. Notice of Extension of Public Comment Period for Application...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Extension of Public Comment Period for Application for Proposed Project for Clean Line Plains & Eastern Transmission Line: Federal Register Notice, Volume 80, No. 116 - Jun. 17, ...

  18. Department of Energy Extends Public Comment Period | Department...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Administration Nevada Site Office is extending the public comment period for the Draft Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement (SWEIS) for the Nevada National Security ...

  19. "Period","Annual Production Capacity",,"Monthly B100 Production...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Biodiesel production capacity and production" "million gallons" "Period","Annual ... is the industry designation for pure biodiesel; a biodiesel blend contains both pure ...

  20. CEQ Extends Comment Period on Revised Draft Guidance on Consideration...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Effects of Climate Change in NEPA Reviews CEQ Extends Comment Period on Revised Draft Guidance on Consideration of Greenhouse Gas ...