National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for forecast period notes

  1. Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Notes Notes Live Media Streaming via RealPlayer Media streaming of these lectures will be provided via RealPlayer. Users of Windows- or Macintosh-based computers will be able to...

  2. Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Notes Notes Why the June 1995 ERSUG Meeting is Important Bill McCurdy describes below a competitive process through which a decision will be made by MICS Division (formerly the OSC) in the June, 1995 timeframe to: (1) possibly move NERSC to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and (2) redefine to some extent the mission of the Center. All of this would be effected within a significantly reduced cost envelope. The LLNL proposal to keep NERSC where it is and the LBL proposal may soon be

  3. Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting Flu March 6, 2016 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del Valle and her team from Los Alamos National Laboratory have developed a global disease-forecasting system that will improve the way we respond to epidemics. Using this model, individuals and public health officials can monitor

  4. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma  ARM AAF Wiki page  Weather Briefings  Observed Weather  Cloud forecasting models  BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated twice/day (12Z and 00Z) Forecast out to 84-hours RUC (updated every 3 hours) Operational RUC forecast only goes out 12 hours (developmental out 24 hours)

  5. Acquisition Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    It is the policy of the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE/NNSA’s forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department’s major site and facilities management contractors.

  6. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  7. Blue Note

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Murray Gibson

    2007-04-27

    Argonne's Murray Gibson is a physicist whose life's work includes finding patterns among atoms. The love of distinguishing patterns also drives Gibson as a musician and Blues enthusiast."Blue" notes are very harmonic notes that are missing from the equal temperament scale.The techniques of piano blues and jazz represent the melding of African and Western music into something totally new and exciting.

  8. Blue Note

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Murray Gibson

    2010-01-08

    Argonne's Murray Gibson is a physicist whose life's work includes finding patterns among atoms. The love of distinguishing patterns also drives Gibson as a musician and Blues enthusiast."Blue" notes are very harmonic notes that are missing from the equal temperament scale.The techniques of piano blues and jazz represent the melding of African and Western music into something totally new and exciting.

  9. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  10. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    c3 Alexander Williams FROM: Ed Mitchellcm SUBJECT: Babcock and Wilcox Elimination Recommendation The purpose of this note is to provide you with certain inf regarding the recommendation to eliminate Babcock and Wilco Products Division, Beaver Falls, Pennsylvania, from conside under FUSRAP. I 01 k, A pmation Tubular 1tion as a site Enclosed is a memo dated July 9, 1990: FUSRAP Considered Site Recommendation, for Babcock and Wilcox. It recommends elimjnation in accordance with FUSRAP protocol.

  11. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    941 OTS NOTE DATE: July 2, 1990 TO: W. Alexander Williams FROM : Don Mackenzie d%? SUBJECT: Elimination of 3 Facilities from NSRAP ./ + 9 Enclosed are elimination recommendations for Vitro Chemical Co., Chattanooga TN Englehard Industries, Newark NJ, and Vapofier Corp., Blue Island IL. >&,a,- Ad on the information referenced in the enclosed memoranda, elimination /us13 of the above sites is recommended at this time. J. Wagoner II OTS File .\3 NSRAP Files (TN.4, N;, IL.25

  12. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    @ 'Alexander Williams FROM: Ed Mitchellqm SUBJECT: W.R. Grace Elimination Recommendation The purpose of this note is to provide you with certain information regarding the recommendation to eliminate W.R. Grace Company (the former Heavy Minerals Company), Chicago,Illinois, from consideration as a site under FUSRAP. Enclosed is a memo dated July 9, 1990: FUSRAP Considered Site Recommendation, for W.R. Grace Company. It recommends elimination in accordance with FUSRAP protocol. Also enclosed is

  13. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    * pp4 r G- .2- OTS NOTE DATE: April 24, 1991 TO: Alexander Williams FROM: Dan Stou tF L SUBJECT: American Potash and Chemical Company Elimination Recommendation The attached memorandum and supporting documents are the basis for our recommendation to eliminate the former American Potash and Chemical Company site from further consideration under FUSRAP. The site is located in West Hanover, Massachusetts. Documents discovered to date indicating use or handling of radioactive material by American

  14. EDITORS NOTE:

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    EDITORS NOTE: This Strategic Plan covers the Department of Energy including the National Nuclear Security Administration, the Energy Information Administration, and the Power Marketing Administrations. As an independent regulatory agency, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) prepares separate documents. See their web page at: http://www.ferc.gov/about/strat-docs.asp. This document is also available on the Department of Energy's web site: http://www.energy.gov. This Strategic Plan was

  15. TECHNICAL NOTE

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOTE Broadband extreme-ultraviolet survey spectrometer for short-time-scale experiments B. E. Chapman, D. J. Den Hartog, and R. J. Fonck A fast and inexpensive spectrometer system has been developed to record extreme-UV impurity spectra in a magnetic-fusion-research device. To simplify the vacuum system, light is passed out of the spectrom- eter's vacuum to the detector with a sodium-salicylate-coated, fiber-optic coupler. This coupler is positioned so that the focal field is nearly flat over

  16. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    March 22, 1991 TO: A. Williams FROM: 0. Sto> Attached is a revised site summary for the Exxon Company in Linden, New Jersey. The summary incorporates new information from a file search and from a conversation with.an NRC inspector. The specific locations of AEC/MED operations have not been identified. .I." -:;1 5':' :?iv,::.;& & had been decontami "ated. The NRC inspector did note that the kC.Mackenzie E. Mitchell C. Young .c. FUSRAP NJ.18 Exxon Research and Engineering

  17. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  18. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  19. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    generation output by using forecasts that incorporate meteorological data to predict production. Such systems typically provide forecasts at a number of timescales, ranging from...

  20. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  1. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications Market Studies LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications ...

  2. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Webmaster Use this form to send us your comments and questions, report problems with the site, or ask for help finding information on the site. Please enter your name and email address in the boxes provided, then type your message below. When you are finished, click "Send Message." NOTE: If you enter your e-mail address incorrectly, we will be unable to reply. Your name: Your email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home

  3. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  4. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, J. M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-11

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  5. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. ... Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. ...

  6. Solar Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Systems Integration » Solar Forecasting Solar Forecasting On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S. solar energy plants. Part of the SunShot Systems Integration efforts, the Solar Forecasting projects will allow power system operators to integrate more solar energy into the electricity grid, and ensure the economic and reliable delivery of

  7. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    probabilistic energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management

  8. Calculation note review

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ramble, A.L.

    1996-09-30

    This document contains a review of the calculation notes which were prepared for the Tank Waste Remediation System Basis for Interim Operation.

  9. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  10. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  11. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  12. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    based on today's forecast." Del Valle and her team were able to successfully monitor influenza in the United States, Poland, Japan and Thailand, dengue fever in Brazil and...

  13. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  14. Meeting Notes and Presentations

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Corporate Board Notes and Slides Notes from EM Corporate QA Board Tele-Conference - February 22, 2010 1 of 2 General: Attendance of voting board members was documented. All members were present or had a representative present on the call. Previous 5 Focus Areas: Dave Tuttel presented the proposed closeout of the previous 5 focus areas for the EM Corporate Board. * Focus Area 1 (Requirements Flow Down) - Board voted to close the focus area (unanimous) * Focus Area 2 (Adequate NQA-1 Suppliers) -

  15. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  16. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  17. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  18. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex...

  19. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am...

  20. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  1. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  2. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  3. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  4. VOL2NOTE.CHP:Corel VENTURA

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    B Explanatory Notes The following Explanatory Notes are provided to assist in understanding and interpreting the data presented in this publication. * Note 1. Petroleum Supply Reporting System * Note 2. Monthly Petroleum Supply Reporting System * Note 3. Technical Notes for Detailed Statistics Tables * Note 4. Domestic Crude Oil Production * Note 5. Export Data * Note 6. Quality Control and Data Revision * Note 7. Frames Maintenance * Note 8. Descriptive Monthly Statistics * Note 9. Practical

  5. Template:Note | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    search Note Note: Usage Method 1 The following displays the note icon and the word 'Note:'. You can follow this with whatever textimagesmarkup you like, and it works...

  6. Solar Forecast Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecast Improvement Project Solar Forecast Improvement Project NOAA.png For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more accurate methods for solar forecasts using their state-of-the-art weather models. APPROACH NOAA solar.png SFIP has three main goals: 1) to develop solar forecasting metrics tailored to the utility sector; 2) to improve solar

  7. Notes and Definitions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Notes and Definitions This report tracks U.S. natural gas inventories held in underground storage facilities. The weekly stocks generally are the volumes of working gas as of the report date. The "net change" in reported stock levels reflects all events affecting working gas in storage, including injections, withdrawals, and reclassifications between base and working gas. The "implied flow" estimate represents movements of working natural gas into or out of underground

  8. Meeting Summary Notes

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    National Transportation Stakeholders Forum (NTSF) May 26, 2010 Meeting Summary Notes Opening Remarks - Steve O'Connor, DOE Office of Packaging and Transportation Steve O'Connor, DOE/EM Office of Packaging and Transportation welcomed the group to this first National Transportation Stakeholders Forum (NTSF) and thanked the planning committee and the dedication of the Midwest Council of State Government for hosting the meeting. The NTSF will focus on transportation across the DOE complex. Mr.

  9. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  10. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information 2015 DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Project Peer Review Goal Statement Addresses the following MYPP BETO goals:  Advance scientific methods and models for measuring and understanding

  11. Manhattan Project: Sources and Notes

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    SOURCES AND NOTES Resources > Sources Below are the collected specific notes for the text and images used on the pages of this web site. For a discussion of the most important works on the Manhattan Project, see the "Suggested Readings." For a general discussion of the use of sources in this web site, see "A Note on Sources." To scan the sources and notes for various categories, choose from the list below. To view the sources and notes for a specific web page, see the

  12. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  13. HSEP Committee Meeting - Transcribed Flipchart Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Flipchart Notes August 8, 2013 Safety Culture Next Steps 1. Continue to get periodic briefings from SCIPT - progress on action items, contractor engagement, etc. 2. Get update on HSS review Page 1 DS Tanks/Flammable Gas - Next Steps 1. Update after DOE report on tank flow rate monitoring is available (Jan/Feb) 2. Tom w/follow up with concerns about pressurization alarms Page 2 Emergency Preparedness/Response: Input - Strategies for Awareness 1. Use real examples when trying to increase

  14. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  15. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  16. PIC Transcribed Flip Chart Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    "Workshop" versus "meeting" Could provide someone to take verbal comments Page 5 PIC Transcribed Flip Chart Notes Wednesday, October 31, 2012 300 Area Public Involvement...

  17. Meeting Summary Notes | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Notes Meeting Summary Notes Summary Notes for the NTSF Meeting on May 26, 2010. PDF icon Meeting Summary Notes More Documents & Publications NTSF 2014 Meeting Agenda NTSF Spring 2010 Final Agenda NTSF Spring 2014 Preliminary Agenda

  18. Research Notes and Information References

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1994-12-01

    The RNS (Research Notes System) is a set of programs and databases designed to aid the research worker in gathering, maintaining, and using notes taken from the literature. The sources for the notes can be books, journal articles, reports, private conversations, conference papers, audiovisuals, etc. The system ties the databases together in a relational structure, thus eliminating data redundancy while providing full access to all the information. The programs provide the means for access andmore » data entry in a way that reduces the key-entry burden for the user. Each note has several data fields. Included are the text of the note, the subject classification (for retrieval), and the reference identification data. These data are divided into four databases: Document data - title, author, publisher, etc., fields to identify the article within the document; Note data - text and page of the note; Sublect data - subject categories to ensure uniform spelling for searches. Additionally, there are subsidiary files used by the system, including database index and temporary work files. The system provides multiple access routes to the notes, both structurally (access method) and topically (through cross-indexing). Output may be directed to a printer or saved as a file for input to word processing software.« less

  19. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  20. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities Equipment Rental FOC 238910 TBD 3Q FY15/ 3Q

  1. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and ... energy technologies based on estimates of future rates of progress and adoption. ...

  2. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  3. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  4. GETEM Manuals and Revision Notes

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Please refer to these manuals and revision notes prior to downloading and running the Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM). Because this is a beta version, you are urged to...

  5. OpenEI Community - notes

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    more

    http:en.openei.orgcommunityblognotes-callcomments notes Linked Open Data Workshop in Washington, D.C. Fri, 28 Sep 2012 00:57:30 +0000 Jweers 521 at...

  6. AIRMaster+ Release Notes | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1.2.7) Release Notes PDF icon Release Notes (Version 1.2.7) More Documents & Publications AIRMaster+ Software Tool Brochure AIRMaster+ User Manual AIRMaster+ Tool Introduction...

  7. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be lower this summer than previously thought. The price for regular gasoline this summer is now expected to average $3.53 a gallon, according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That's down 10 cents from last month's forecast and 16 cents cheaper than last summer. After reaching a weekly peak of $3.78 a gallon in late February, pump prices fell nine weeks in a row to $3.52

  8. Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    these lectures will be provided via RealPlayer. Users of Windows- or Macintosh-based computers will be able to see and hear the presentation by way of the following procedures. 1....

  9. Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    at Argonne The Argonne contact person for the NUG Meeting is Mike Minkoff of the Mathematics and Computer Science Division. His phone number is (630) 252-7234. Last edited:...

  10. Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    a primary topic of discussion was the issue of the processing capabilities of the PVP cluster. Since the upgrade of the batch system processors to SV1s, some concern has been...

  11. Topic A Note: Includes STEPS Subtopic

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Topic A Note: Includes STEPS Subtopic 33 Total Projects Developing and Enhancing Workforce Training Programs

  12. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  13. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  14. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  15. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  16. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  17. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  18. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  19. Lecture Notes - Summer 2016 Cyclotron Institute REU Program

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    REU Lecture Notes (links to notes will be provided when they become available) -->

  20. Lecture notes for criticality safety

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fullwood, R.

    1992-03-01

    These lecture notes for criticality safety are prepared for the training of Department of Energy supervisory, project management, and administrative staff. Technical training and basic mathematics are assumed. The notes are designed for a two-day course, taught by two lecturers. Video tapes may be used at the options of the instructors. The notes provide all the materials that are necessary but outside reading will assist in the fullest understanding. The course begins with a nuclear physics overview. The reader is led from the macroscopic world into the microscopic world of atoms and the elementary particles that constitute atoms. The particles, their masses and sizes and properties associated with radioactive decay and fission are introduced along with Einstein's mass-energy equivalence. Radioactive decay, nuclear reactions, radiation penetration, shielding and health-effects are discussed to understand protection in case of a criticality accident. Fission, the fission products, particles and energy released are presented to appreciate the dangers of criticality. Nuclear cross sections are introduced to understand the effectiveness of slow neutrons to produce fission. Chain reactors are presented as an economy; effective use of the neutrons from fission leads to more fission resulting in a power reactor or a criticality excursion. The six-factor formula is presented for managing the neutron budget. This leads to concepts of material and geometric buckling which are used in simple calculations to assure safety from criticality. Experimental measurements and computer code calculations of criticality are discussed. To emphasize the reality, historical criticality accidents are presented in a table with major ones discussed to provide lessons-learned. Finally, standards, NRC guides and regulations, and DOE orders relating to criticality protection are presented.

  1. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  2. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    rely on an array of VG forecasts suited to different purposes. Some of the most common types of VG forecasts are defined below: 2 This report is available at no cost from the...

  3. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  4. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Capabilities

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Capabilities Best Practices Handbook Helps Industry Collect and Interpret Solar Resource Data Read about this new comprehensive resource for the solar industry. NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research staff provides expertise in renewable energy measurement and instrumentation. Major capabilities include solar resource measurement, instrument calibration, instrument characterization, solar monitoring training, and standards development and information dissemination. Solar Resource

  5. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  7. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  8. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  9. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  10. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  11. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Conference: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction

  12. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting May 1, 2012 - 3:19pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Second Quarter 2012 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. Since 2008, Argonne National Laboratory and INESC TEC (formerly INESC Porto) have conducted a research project to improve wind power forecasting and better use of forecasting in electricity markets. One of the main results from the project is ARGUS PRIMA (PRediction Intelligent

  13. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical

  14. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  15. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  16. Property:ExplorationNotes | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    the property "ExplorationNotes" Showing 1 page using this property. R RAPIDOverviewGeothermalExplorationCalifornia + The Geothermal Resources Prospecting Permit (PRC...

  17. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    suitable for use in aviation reciprocating engines. Fuel specifications are provided in ASTM Specification D 910 and Military Specification MIL-G-5572. Note: Data on blending...

  18. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  19. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  20. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  1. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  2. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  3. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  4. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  5. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting | Department

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    of Energy 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement tools used in Earned Value. This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as estimate to complete (ETC) and estimate at completion (EAC)

  6. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    in Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain April 4, 2014 - 9:47am Addthis On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex

  7. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. PDF icon Report of the External Peer Review Panel More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  8. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  9. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  10. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements. WFIP Round...

  11. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other stakeholders better forecast when, where, and how much...

  12. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  13. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  14. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  15. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    (Note: Dry natural gas is also known as consumer-grade natural gas. The parameters for measurement are cubic feet at 60 degrees Fahrenheit and 14.73 pounds per square inch...

  16. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Natural Gas Information Query System > Definitions, Sources, & Notes Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes The EIA-176 form contains responses submitted from an identified universe of pipelines, local distribution companies, and operators of fields, wells or gas processing plants, who distribute gas to end users or transport gas across State borders; or underground natural gas storage operators. The EIA 191 collects information on working and base gas in reservoirs, injections,

  17. Manhattan Project: A Note on Sources

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    A NOTE ON SOURCES Resources > Note on Sources The text for this web site is a combination of original material and adaptations from previous publications of the Department of Energy (including contractors), its predecessor agencies (primarily the Atomic Energy Commission and the Manhattan Engineer District), and other government agencies. Adaptations run the gamut from summaries to close paraphrases to text being taken directly. This material was gathered and adapted for use by the DOE's

  18. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  19. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  20. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  1. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  2. Period meter for reactors

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Rusch, Gordon K.

    1976-01-06

    An improved log N amplifier type nuclear reactor period meter with reduced probability for noise-induced scrams is provided. With the reactor at low power levels a sampling circuit is provided to determine the reactor period by measuring the finite change in the amplitude of the log N amplifier output signal for a predetermined time period, while at high power levels, differentiation of the log N amplifier output signal provides an additional measure of the reactor period.

  3. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  4. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  5. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illuminatio...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications PDF icon...

  6. Application Note: Power Grid Modeling With Xyce.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sholander, Peter E.

    2015-06-01

    This application note describes how to model steady-state power flows and transient events in electric power grids with the SPICE-compatible Xyce TM Parallel Electronic Simulator developed at Sandia National Labs. This application notes provides a brief tutorial on the basic devices (branches, bus shunts, transformers and generators) found in power grids. The focus is on the features supported and assumptions made by the Xyce models for power grid elements. It then provides a detailed explanation, including working Xyce netlists, for simulating some simple power grid examples such as the IEEE 14-bus test case.

  7. RAP Meeting Transcribed Flip Chart Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Flip Chart Notes February 15, 2012 Site-wide Permit Workshop May 3 1. Have "post-workshop" session to discuss HAB next steps 2. Recommend Ecology sponsors & facilitates Workshop - Ecology captures notes, but HAB members track issues of concern, too. 3. Web-ex for public when it fits 4. Pre-workshop meeting with HAB issue leaders (potential speakers) Page 1 300 Area HAB next steps... IM & Pam 1. Issue managers meet to review potential issues for HAB/committees 2. Bring back to

  8. Xyce parallel electronic simulator release notes.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keiter, Eric Richard; Hoekstra, Robert John; Mei, Ting; Russo, Thomas V.; Schiek, Richard Louis; Thornquist, Heidi K.; Rankin, Eric Lamont; Coffey, Todd Stirling; Pawlowski, Roger Patrick; Santarelli, Keith R.

    2010-05-01

    The Xyce Parallel Electronic Simulator has been written to support, in a rigorous manner, the simulation needs of the Sandia National Laboratories electrical designers. Specific requirements include, among others, the ability to solve extremely large circuit problems by supporting large-scale parallel computing platforms, improved numerical performance and object-oriented code design and implementation. The Xyce release notes describe: Hardware and software requirements New features and enhancements Any defects fixed since the last release Current known defects and defect workarounds For up-to-date information not available at the time these notes were produced, please visit the Xyce web page at http://www.cs.sandia.gov/xyce.

  9. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  10. Notes on beam dynamics in linear accelerators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gluckstern, R.L.

    1980-09-01

    A collection of notes, on various aspects of beam dynamics in linear accelerators, which were produced by the author during five years (1975 to 1980) of consultation for the LASL Accelerator Technology (AT) Division and Medium-Energy Physics (MP) Division is presented.

  11. Scoping Period Closed

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The environmental impact statement (EIS) scoping period has ended. DOE is preparing a Draft EIS that will analyze and compare the potential environmental impacts of various alternative approaches...

  12. The MicroBooNE Experiment - Public Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    MicroBooNE Public Notes Page Back to the Publications Page

  13. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  14. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  15. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  16. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  17. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  18. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The Energy Department will present a live webinar titled "Solar Forecasting Metrics" on Thursday, February 13, from 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. During this ...

  19. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy ofSolar Forecasting Funding Opportunity,DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  20. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  1. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  2. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  3. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  4. Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Frequentist and Bayesian analyses (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological

  5. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  6. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  7. Genealogy of periodic trajectories

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    de Adguiar, M.A.M.; Maldta, C.P.; de Passos, E.J.V.

    1986-05-20

    The periodic solutions of non-integrable classical Hamiltonian systems with two degrees of freedom are numerically investigated. Curves of periodic families are given in plots of energy vs. period. Results are presented for this Hamiltonian: H = 1/2(p/sub x//sup 2/ + p/sub y//sup 2/) + 1/2 x/sup 2/ + 3/2 y/sup 2/ - x/sup 2/y + 1/12 x/sup 4/. Properties of the families of curves are pointed out. (LEW)

  8. LLW notes, Vol. 11, No. 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-03-01

    `LLW Notes` is distributed by Afton Associates, Inc. to Low-Level Radioactive Waste Forum Participants and other state, and compact officials identified by those Participants to receive LLW Notes. The Low-Level Radioactive Waste Forum (LLW Forum) is an association of state and compact representatives, appointed by governors and compact commissions, established to facilitate state and compact implementation of the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy Act of 1980 and the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy amendments Act of 1985 and to promote the objectives of low-level radioactive waste regional compacts. The LLW Forum provides an opportunity for state and compact officials to share information with one another and to exchange views with officials of federal agencies and other interested parties.

  9. LLW notes. Volume 11, No.8

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-12-01

    `LLW Notes` is distributed by Afton Associates, Inc. to Low-Level Radioactive Waste Forum Participants and other state, and compact officials identified by those Participants to receive `LLW Notes`. The Low-Level Radioactive Waste Forum (LLW Forum) is an association of state and compact representatives, appointed by governors and compact commissions, established to facilitate state and compact implementation of the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy Act of 1980 and the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1985 and to promote the objectives of low-level radioactive waste regional compacts. The LLW Forum provides an opportunity for state and compact officials to share information with one another and to exchange views with officials of federal agencies and other interested parties.

  10. labNotes | netl.doe.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    LabNotes March 2016 Three NETL Science and Engineering Ambassadors to Participate in Spring Course Three NETL employees, Ale Hakala, Paul Ohodnicki, and Steven Bossart will participate as Science and Engineering Ambassadors for the 2016 spring semester course, "Energy: Science, Society and, Communication," presented by Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) and the University of Pittsburgh (Pitt) as part of the Science and Engineering Ambassadors program, developed by the National Academies

  11. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Exports Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5 barrels per short ton.

  12. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Exports by Destination Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5 barrels

  13. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Area of Entry Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5 barrels per short

  14. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    PAD District Imports by Country of Origin Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for

  15. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    U.S. Imports by Country of Origin Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is

  16. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Imports by Destination Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5 barrels

  17. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Receipts by Pipeline, Tanker, and Barge Between PAD Districts Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The

  18. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Pipeline, Tanker, and Barge Between PADDs Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for

  19. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Tanker and Barge Between PADDs Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5

  20. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Shell Storage Capacity at Operable Refineries Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for

  1. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Working Storage Capacity at Operable Refineries Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor

  2. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Yield Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5 barrels per short ton.

  3. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Production Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5 barrels per short

  4. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    & Blender Net Production Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5

  5. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Petroleum Product Prices by Sales Type Definitions Key Terms Definition Aviation Gasoline (Finished) A complex mixture of relatively volatile hydrocarbons with or without small quantities of additives, blended to form a fuel suitable for use in aviation reciprocating engines. Fuel specifications are provided in ASTM Specification D 910 and Military Specification MIL-G-5572. Note: Data on blending components are not counted in data on finished aviation gasoline. Gas Plant Operator Any firm,

  6. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Refinery Stocks Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5 barrels per

  7. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Prices, Sales Volumes & Stocks by State Definitions Key Terms Definition Aviation Gasoline (Finished) A complex mixture of relatively volatile hydrocarbons with or without small quantities of additives, blended to form a fuel suitable for use in aviation reciprocating engines. Fuel specifications are provided in ASTM Specification D 910 and Military Specification MIL-G-5572. Note: Data on blending components are not counted in data on finished aviation gasoline. Gas Plant Operator Any firm,

  8. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Supply and Disposition Balance Definitions Key Terms Definition Asphalt A dark-brown-to-black cement-like material containing bitumens as the predominant constituent obtained by petroleum processing; used primarily for road construction. It includes crude asphalt as well as the following finished products: cements, fluxes, the asphalt content of emulsions (exclusive of water), and petroleum distillates blended with asphalt to make cutback asphalts. Note: The conversion factor for asphalt is 5.5

  9. HSEP Committee Meeting - Transcribed Flip Chart Notes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Flip Chart Notes November 14, 2013 Emergency Preparedness: Observations from August Drill * Observation that EOC, JIC and public process release info. not always the same * How social media contributes to info. flow (could be helpful or problematic) Page 1 Emergency Preparedness: Suggestions 1. Quickly determine and use a consistent name for the incident 2. Reinforce website use 3. Engage and train workers on site 4. Share siren info. / other info. with the community 5. Film an incident/ drill

  10. Table Definitions, Sources, and Explanatory Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Shale Gas Production Definitions Key Terms Definition Shale Gas Natural gas produced from organic (black) shale formations. For definitions of related energy terms, refer to the EIA Energy Glossary. Sources Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas Explanatory Notes Shale Gas production data collected in conjunction with proved reserves data on Form EIA-23 are unofficial. Official Shale Gas production data from Form EIA-895 can be found in Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals and

  11. EM QA Working Group September 2011 Notes

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Safety Management Champions Workshop Quality Assurance Working Group (Video Conference) Hanford, WA - September 13, 2011 Page 1 of 8 Introduction Bob Murray provided an introduction and addressed the expectations for the meeting. He noted this is not an EM QA Corporate Board Meeting; therefore, the topics should be discussed as a group and not presented by only one person. Audience participation is needed to make the working group successful. Potential Revision to the Performance Indicator and

  12. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  13. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOAA Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007 Forecasting Challenge While weather experiments in the heart of Tornado Alley typically focus on severe weather, the CLASIC and CHAPS programs will have different emphases. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Norman, Okla. will provide weather forecasting support to these two Department of Energy experiments based in the state. Forecasting support for meteorological research field programs usually

  14. Scoping Period Open

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published in the Federal Register a Notice of Intent to prepare an environmental impact statement (EIS), and the scoping period is open for public comment for at least 30 days. DOE requests...

  15. Holding Period Complete

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS), and the 30-day waiting period has ended. DOE is preparing a Record of Decision to announce and explain its chosen project alternative...

  16. Comment Period Closed Explained

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The public comment period on the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) has ended, and DOE is preparing a Final EIS. The Final EIS will consider and respond to all timely public comments on the...

  17. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  18. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  19. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  20. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  1. eNews Note of Appreciation

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    3 Issue 25 ASC eNews Quarterly Newsletter September 2013 A Note of Appreciation Reeta Garber The ASC Program would like to recognize Reeta Garber for her leadership in designing and developing programmatic communications tools and activities and to wish her the very best as she retires (again) to begin a new phase in her life. Since 1998 Reeta has supported the ASC Program as an important member of the core team responsible for spreading the word about DOE/NNSA laboratory and Federal efforts in

  2. Meeting Notes re NOI for Convention on Supplementary Compensation |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Notes re NOI for Convention on Supplementary Compensation Meeting Notes re NOI for Convention on Supplementary Compensation notes from meeting on Convention on Supplementary Compensation PDF icon Meeting Notes re NOI for Convention on Supplementary Compensation More Documents & Publications Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage Contingent Cost Allocation Public comment re Convention on Supplementary Compensation on Nuclear Damage Contingent Cost

  3. DOE Durability Working Group October 2011 Meeting Notes | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy 1 Meeting Notes DOE Durability Working Group October 2011 Meeting Notes Meeting notes from the Fall 2011 Durability Working Group (DWG) Meeting sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Fuel Cell Technologies Program. Notes also include a summary of progress on action items from the Spring 2011 DWG meeting. PDF icon durability_working_group_minutes_oct_2011.pdf More Documents & Publications DOE Durability Working Group October 2010 Meeting Minutes DOE Durability Working

  4. PIA - Savannah River Operations Office Lotus Domino/Notes System |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Lotus Domino/Notes System PIA - Savannah River Operations Office Lotus Domino/Notes System PIA - Savannah River Operations Office Lotus Domino/Notes System PDF icon PIA - Savannah River Operations Office Lotus Domino/Notes System More Documents & Publications PIA - DOE Savannah River Operations Office PRISM System PIA - GovTrip (DOE data) PIA - HSPD-12 Physical and Logical Access System

  5. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  6. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  7. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  8. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  9. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  10. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  11. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  12. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  13. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am ...

  14. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  15. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  16. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  17. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  18. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Department of Energy PDF icon Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  19. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  20. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting UCAR logo2.jpg The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research. APPROACH UCAR value chain.png The team will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through

  1. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  2. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  3. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  4. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  5. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-09-22

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the 'Microbase' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  6. BNL ALARA Center: ALARA Notes, No. 9

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Khan, T.A.; Xie, J.W.; Beckman, M.C.

    1994-02-01

    This issue of the Brookhaven National Laboratory`s Alara Notes includes the agenda for the Third International Workshop on ALARA and specific instructions on the use of the on-line fax-on-demand service provided by BNL. Other topics included in this issue are: (1) A discussion of low-level discharges from Canadian nuclear plants, (2) Safety issues at French nuclear plants, (3) Acoustic emission as a means of leak detection, (4) Replacement of steam generators at Doel-3, Beaznau, and North Anna-1, (5) Remote handling equipment at Bruce, (6) EPRI`s low level waste program, (7) Radiation protection during concrete repairs at Savannah River, (8) Reactor vessel stud removal/repair at Comanche Peak-1, (9) Rework of reactor coolant pump motors, (10) Restoration of service water at North Anna-1 and -2, (11) Steam generator tubing problems at Mihama-1, (12) Full system decontamination at Indian Point-2, (13) Chemical decontamination at Browns Ferry-2, and (14) Inspection methodolody in France and Japan.

  7. Energy consumption and expenditure projections by population group on the basis of the annual energy outlook 1999 forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poyer, D.A.; Balsley, J.H.

    2000-01-07

    This report presents an analysis of the relative impact of the base-case scenario used in Annual Energy Outlook 1999 on different population groups. Projections of energy consumption and expenditures, as well as energy expenditure as a share of income, from 1996 to 2020 are given. The projected consumption of electricty, natural gas, distillate fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas during this period is also reported for each population group. In addition, this report compares the findings of the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 report with the 1998 report. Changes in certain indicators and information affect energy use forecasts, and these effects are analyzed and discussed.

  8. Word Pro - Untitled1

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    "North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)" in Glossary. Notes: * Values for 2011 are forecast. * The winter peak period is October through May. Source: Table 8.12b.

  9. Sample Memorandum to Reactivate a Directive Placed on Hold (NOTE...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sample Memorandum to Reactivate a Directive Placed on Hold (NOTE: Per Office of Executive Secretariat procedures, please use Calibri, 12 point font for this memorandum.) (Effective...

  10. PLEASE NOTE THURSDAY DATE - COLLOQUIUM: Professor Ralph Roskies...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    MBG Auditorium PLEASE NOTE THURSDAY DATE - COLLOQUIUM: Professor Ralph Roskies - "Big Data at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center" Professor Ralph Roskies Pittsburgh...

  11. Summary Notes from 22 July 2008 Generic Technical Issue Discussion...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    performance. * NRC staff noted that model support should be commensurate with the natural attributes of the site. For example, at a site that exhibits significant erosion, it...

  12. Publisher's Note: Phase effects from the general neutrino Yukawa...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Phase effects from the general neutrino Yukawa matrix on lepton flavor violation Phys. Rev. D 72, 055012 (2005) Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Publisher's Note: Phase ...

  13. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  14. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon

  15. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data Center (RReDC) Provides information about biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind energy resources. Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center Provides irradiance and meteorological data from stations throughout the United States. Baseline Measurement System (BMS) Provides live solar radiation data from approximately 70

  16. EM QA Working Group September 2011 Notes | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Meeting minutes and notes from the EM QA Working Group video conference meeting held in September 2011. PDF icon EM QA Working Group September 2011 Notes More Documents & Publications QA Corporate Board Meeting - February 2014 QA Corporate Board Meeting - September 2010 QA Corporate Board Meeting - February 2011

  17. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  18. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  19. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  20. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  1. EIA-906 & EIA-920, and EIA-923 Database Notes

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA-906 & EIA-920, and EIA-923 Database Notes" ,"Date","Subject","Notes" ,38086,"Excel File Documentation","The documentation included with the Excel file has been updated to include the year to date columns at the end (far right) of the file. In addition, the documentation now clearly notes that the total consumption numbers include fuel consumed at combined heat and power plants for the purpose of producing process steam."

  2. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  3. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  4. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  5. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  6. Parc Periodical | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Parc Periodical Parc Periodical PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 2 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 1 PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 6 PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 5 PARC...

  7. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Value of Improved Short- Term Wind Power Forecasting B.-M. Hodge and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Sharp Sharply Focused, LLC M. Margulis and D. Mcreavy Lockheed Martin Technical Report NREL/TP-5D00-63175 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

  8. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  9. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  10. Note: Using fast digitizer acquisition and flexible resolution to enhance

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    noise cancellation for high performance nanosecond transient absorbance spectroscopy (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Note: Using fast digitizer acquisition and flexible resolution to enhance noise cancellation for high performance nanosecond transient absorbance spectroscopy Citation Details In-Document Search This content will become publicly available on June 24, 2016 Title: Note: Using fast digitizer acquisition and flexible resolution to enhance noise cancellation for high

  11. Notes on Newton-Krylov based Incompressible Flow Projection Solver

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Notes on Newton-Krylov based Incompressible Flow Projection Solver Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Notes on Newton-Krylov based Incompressible Flow Projection Solver The purpose of the present document is to formulate Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov algorithm for approximate projection method used in Hydra-TH code. Hydra-TH is developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under the auspices of the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of

  12. Notes on Newton-Krylov based Incompressible Flow Projection Solver

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Notes on Newton-Krylov based Incompressible Flow Projection Solver Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Notes on Newton-Krylov based Incompressible Flow Projection Solver × You are accessing a document from the Department of Energy's (DOE) SciTech Connect. This site is a product of DOE's Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) and is provided as a public service. Visit OSTI to utilize additional information resources in energy science

  13. Notes on the Lumped Backward Master Equation for the Neutron

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Extinction/Survival Probability (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Notes on the Lumped Backward Master Equation for the Neutron Extinction/Survival Probability Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Notes on the Lumped Backward Master Equation for the Neutron Extinction/Survival Probability The expected or mean neutron number (or density) provides an adequate characterization of the neutron population and its dynamical excursions in most neutronic applications, in

  14. Publisher's Note: Measurement of the Positive Muon Lifetime and

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Determination of the Fermi Constant to Part-per-Million Precision [Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 041803 (2011)] (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Publisher's Note: Measurement of the Positive Muon Lifetime and Determination of the Fermi Constant to Part-per-Million Precision [Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 041803 (2011)] Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Publisher's Note: Measurement of the Positive Muon Lifetime and Determination of the Fermi Constant to Part-per-Million Precision [Phys. Rev.

  15. Decrease Noted in LM Records Information Requests | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Decrease Noted in LM Records Information Requests Decrease Noted in LM Records Information Requests July 2, 2015 - 10:50am Addthis What does this project do? Goal 2. Preserve, protect, and share records and information. The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) experienced a slight decrease in records information requests. The decline is due in large part to reduced claims filed by former Rocky Flats, Colorado, Site workers. LM responds to stakeholder Freedom of Information

  16. Federal Utility Partnership Working Group Meeting Notes | Department of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Utility Partnership Working Group Meeting Notes Federal Utility Partnership Working Group Meeting Notes PDF icon Spring 2013 Meeting Report PDF icon Fall 2012 Meeting Report PDF icon Spring 2012 Meeting Report PDF icon Fall 2011 Meeting Report PDF icon Spring 2011 Meeting Report PDF icon Fall 2010 Meeting Report PDF icon Spring 2009 Meeting Report PDF icon Fall 2008 Meeting Report PDF icon Fall 2007 Meeting Report PDF icon Spring 2007 Meeting Report PDF icon Fall 2006 Meeting Report

  17. Enhancing Cloud Radiative Processes and Radiation Efficiency in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iacono, Michael J.

    2015-03-09

    The objective of this research has been to evaluate and implement enhancements to the computational performance of the RRTMG radiative transfer option in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Efficiency is as essential as accuracy for effective numerical weather prediction, and radiative transfer is a relatively time-consuming component of dynamical models, taking up to 30-50 percent of the total model simulation time. To address this concern, this research has implemented and tested a version of RRTMG that utilizes graphics processing unit (GPU) technology (hereinafter RRTMGPU) to greatly improve its computational performance; thereby permitting either more frequent simulation of radiative effects or other model enhancements. During the early stages of this project the development of RRTMGPU was completed at AER under separate NASA funding to accelerate the code for use in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Goddard Earth Observing System GEOS-5 global model. It should be noted that this final report describes results related to the funded portion of the originally proposed work concerning the acceleration of RRTMG with GPUs in WRF. As a k-distribution model, RRTMG is especially well suited to this modification due to its relatively large internal pseudo-spectral (g-point) dimension that, when combined with the horizontal grid vector in the dynamical model, can take great advantage of the GPU capability. Thorough testing under several model configurations has been performed to ensure that RRTMGPU improves WRF model run time while having no significant impact on calculated radiative fluxes and heating rates or on dynamical model fields relative to the RRTMG radiation. The RRTMGPU codes have been provided to NCAR for possible application to the next public release of the WRF forecast model.

  18. Shortest recurrence periods of novae

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kato, Mariko [Department of Astronomy, Keio University, Hiyoshi, Yokohama 223-8521 (Japan); Saio, Hideyuki [Astronomical Institute, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8578 (Japan); Hachisu, Izumi [Department of Earth Science and Astronomy, College of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 3-8-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8902 (Japan); Nomoto, Ken'ichi, E-mail: mariko@educ.cc.keio.ac.jp [Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (WPI), The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8583 (Japan)

    2014-10-01

    Stimulated by the recent discovery of the 1 yr recurrence period nova M31N 2008-12a, we examined the shortest recurrence periods of hydrogen shell flashes on mass-accreting white dwarfs (WDs). We discuss the mechanism that yields a finite minimum recurrence period for a given WD mass. Calculating the unstable flashes for various WD masses and mass accretion rates, we identified a shortest recurrence period of about two months for a non-rotating 1.38 M {sub ?} WD with a mass accretion rate of 3.6 10{sup 7} M {sub ?} yr{sup 1}. A 1 yr recurrence period is realized for very massive (? 1.3 M {sub ?}) WDs with very high accretion rates (? 1.5 10{sup 7} M {sub ?} yr{sup 1}). We revised our stability limit of hydrogen shell burning, which will be useful for binary evolution calculations toward Type Ia supernovae.

  19. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  20. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  1. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Applications | Department of Energy Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications PDF icon energysavingsforecast14.pdf More Documents & Publications Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications - Report LED ADOPTION REPORT Solid-State Lighting R&D

  2. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  3. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  4. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  5. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  6. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  7. Publisher's Note: "Chiral symmetry restoration at large chemical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    potential 2 in strongly coupled SU(N) gauge theories" [J. Math. Phys. 54, 122301 (2013)] (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Publisher's Note: "Chiral symmetry restoration at large chemical potential 2 in strongly coupled SU(N) gauge theories" [J. Math. Phys. 54, 122301 (2013)] Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Publisher's Note: "Chiral symmetry restoration at large chemical potential 2 in strongly coupled SU(N) gauge theories" [J. Math. Phys. 54, 122301

  8. Microsoft Word - UEC Town_Hall_Meeting_notes.docx

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4/2013 CNMS User Group Town Hall meeting notes Open meeting held in Rooms 202A/B/C of ORNL Conference Center Convened 12:30pm Note: Slides presented at the meeting are attached following p.2. 1. Tony Hmelo, UEC Chair, opened the meeting and introduced the UEC members to the audience. 2. Tony provided an update on UEC activities in 2013 that covered: a. Role of the UEC: We are the link between users and management and influence CNMS activities. b. Telecons: The minutes are archived and available

  9. Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1994--FY 2001. Environmental Restoration Program, September 1993 Revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    This Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project. FY 1994--FY 2001 is the third in a series of documents that report current estimates of the waste volumes expected to be generated as a result of Environmental Restoration activities at Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office (DOE-ORO), sites. Considered in the scope of this document are volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of remedial action and decontamination and decommissioning activities taking place at these sites. Sites contributing to the total estimates make up the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Y-12 Plant, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, and the off-site contaminated areas adjacent to the Oak Ridge facilities (collectively referred to as the Oak Ridge Reservation Off-Site area). Estimates are available for the entire fife of all waste generating activities. This document summarizes waste estimates forecasted for the 8-year period of FY 1994-FY 2001. Updates with varying degrees of change are expected throughout the refinement of restoration strategies currently in progress at each of the sites. Waste forecast data are relatively fluid, and this document represents remediation plans only as reported through September 1993.

  10. PARC Periodical | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    PARC Periodical PARC Periodical February 16, 2016 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 3 VIEW ARTICLE HERE Read more about PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 3 December 7, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 2 VIEW ARTICLE HERE Read more about PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 2 October 12, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 1 VIEW ARTICLE HERE Read more about PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 1 August 20, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 6 VIEW ARTICLE HERE Read more about PARC

  11. Tribal Consultation and Stakeholder Outreach Meeting Notes and Analysis

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Strategy on the Arctic Region (NSAR) - Ten Year Renewable Energy Strategy Tribal Consultation and Stakeholder Outreach Meeting Notes and Analysis Prepared by Denali Daniels and Associates, Inc. Fall 2014 Office of Indian Energy Table o f C ontents Executive S ummary .............................................................................................................................................. 2 --- 6 Background

  12. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  13. EnPI V4.0 Release Notes and Known Issues | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Release Notes and Known Issues EnPI V4.0 Release Notes and Known Issues Release notes and known issues for the Energy Performance Indicator (EnPI) Tool v4.0. PDF icon EnPI Release Notes and Known Issues More Documents & Publications EnPI V4.0 User Manual

  14. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  15. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy .5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting January 8, 2015 - 12:00pm Addthis The Energy Department today announced $2.5 million for a new project to research the atmospheric processes that generate wind in mountain-valley regions. This in-depth research, conducted by Vaisala of Louisville, Colorado, will be used to improve the wind industry's weather models for short-term wind forecasts, especially for

  16. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar forecasting accuracy by as much

  17. Down hole periodic seismic generator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hardee, Harry C. (Albuquerque, NM); Hills, Richard G. (Las Cruces, NM); Striker, Richard P. (Albuquerque, NM)

    1989-01-01

    A down hole periodic seismic generator system for transmitting variable frequency, predominantly shear-wave vibration into earth strata surrounding a borehole. The system comprises a unitary housing operably connected to a well head by support and electrical cabling and contains clamping apparatus for selectively clamping the housing to the walls of the borehole. The system further comprises a variable speed pneumatic oscillator and a self-contained pneumatic reservoir for producing a frequency-swept seismic output over a discrete frequency range.

  18. Advanced downhole periodic seismic generator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hardee, Harry C. (Albuquerque, NM); Hills, Richard G. (Las Cruces, NM); Striker, Richard P. (Albuquerque, NM)

    1991-07-16

    An advanced downhole periodic seismic generator system for transmitting variable frequency, predominantly shear-wave vibration into earth strata surrounding a borehole. The system comprises a unitary housing operably connected to a well head by support and electrical cabling and contains clamping apparatus for selectively clamping the housing to the walls of the borehole. The system further comprises a variable speed pneumatic oscillator and a self-contained pneumatic reservoir for producing a frequency-swept seismic output over a discrete frequency range.

  19. Diffuse Shortwave Intensive Observation Period

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    1 Diffuse Shortwave Intensive Observation Period The Diffuse Shortwave IOP ran from September 23 to October 12, 2001. During this IOP, Joe Michalsky (The State University of New York-Albany) and Tom Stoffel (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) deployed approximately 15 radiometers of various designs and manufacturers on the SGP Radiometer Calibration Facility. The purpose was to compare the accuracy of the radiometers for diffuse shortwave measurements. The Scripps Institution of Oceanography

  20. Intensive Observation Period Projects Scheduled

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    1 Intensive Observation Period Projects Scheduled Several IOP projects have been scheduled for the SGP CART site this spring. These projects either have already begun or will begin shortly. Radiosondes The RS-90 Transition IOP is currently under way. The RS-90 model radiosonde is gradually replacing the older RS-80 model. Radiosondes are instrument packages attached to and launched by weather balloons. The instruments measure atmospheric pressure, temperature, and relative humidity as the

  1. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  2. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach ...

  3. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  4. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  5. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  6. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  7. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  8. NOAA Teams Up with Department of Energy & Industry to Improve Wind Forecasts

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The growth of wind-generated power in the United States  is creating greater demand for improved wind forecasts. To address this need, the Department of Energy is working with NOAA and industry on...

  9. LLW Notes, Volume 9, Number 6. October 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1994-10-01

    LLW Notes is distributed to Low-Level Radioactive Waste Forum Participants and other state and compact officials identified by those Participants to receive LLW Notes. The Low-Level Radioactive Waste Forum is an association of state and compact representatives appointed by governors and compact commissions, established to facilitate state and compact commission implementation of the Low- Level Radioactive Waste Policy Act of 1980 and the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1985 and to promote the objectives of low-level radioactive waste regional compacts. The Forum provides an opportunity for states and compacts to share information with one another and to exchange views with officials of federal agencies and other interested parties.

  10. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  11. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  12. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  13. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S. DOE Office

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    of Science (SC) Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear Science Advisory Committee (NSAC) Community Resources Contact Information Nuclear Physics U.S. Department of Energy SC-26/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 P: (301) 903-3613 F: (301) 903-3833 E: Email Us More Information » 05.01.14 Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron

  14. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  15. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  16. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  17. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  18. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and More | Department of Energy Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision, and More DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision, and More February 12, 2014 - 7:38pm Addthis EERE offers webinars to the public on a range of subjects, from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies to training for the clean energy workforce. Webinars are free; however, advanced registration is typically required. You can also watch archived webinars

  19. Application note : using open source schematic capture tools with Xyce.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Russo, Thomas V.

    2013-08-01

    The development of the XyceTM Parallel Electronic Simulator has focused entirely on the creation of a fast, scalable simulation tool, and has not included any schematic capture or data visualization tools. This application note will describe how to use the open source schematic capture tool gschem and its associated netlist creation tool gnetlist to create basic circuit designs for Xyce, and how to access advanced features of Xyce that are not directly supported by either gschem or gnetlist.

  20. State Energy Data System 2013 Consumption Technical Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Consumption Technical Notes U.S. Energy Information Administration | State Energy Data 2013: Consumption 3 Purpose All of the estimates contained in the state energy consumption data tables are developed using the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is main- tained and operated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS is to create historical time series of energy production, consumption, prices, and expenditures by state that are defined as

  1. State Energy Data System 2013 Price and Expenditure Technical Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Price and Expenditure Technical Notes U.S. Energy Information Administration | State Energy Data 2013: Prices and Expenditures 3 Purpose The State Energy Data System (SEDS) was developed and is maintained and operated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS is to create historical time series of energy production, consumption, prices, and expenditures by state that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. SEDS exists for two

  2. State Energy Data System 2013 Production Technical Notes

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Production Technical Notes Contents Section 1. Introduction 1 Section 2. Coal 3 Section 3. Crude Oil 5 Section 4. Natural Gas (Marketed Production) 7 Section 5. Renewable Energy and Nuclear Energy 11 U.S. Energy Information Administration | State Energy Data 2013: Production 1 Section 1. Introduction The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) State Energy Data System (SEDS) provides Members of Congress, federal and state agencies, and the general public with comparable state-level data

  3. EIA - Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Table-Figure Notes and Sources

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    A1. Notes and Sources Tables Chapter 1: Greenhouse gas emissions overview Table 1. U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases, based on global warming potential, 1990-2009: Sources: Emissions: EIA estimates. Data in this table are revised from the data contained in the previous EIA report, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2008, DOE/EIA-0573(2008) (Washington, DC, December 2009). Global warming potentials: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: The Physical

  4. NETL LabNotes | netl.doe.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NETL LabNotes Archive SEPTEMBER 2014 Advanced Manufacturing Builds a Better Fuel Cell AUGUST 2014 Researchers Use Waste Slag to Create Energy and Cut Emissions JULY 2014 Corrosion Testing using Oxy-Fuel Combustion for Ultra-Supercritical Steam Boilers NETL's Corrosion Erosion Facility Tests Materials in Severe Environments JUNE 2014 Deepwater Oil Production through Thick and Thin May 2014 NETL-Boston Scientific Coronary Stent Alloy Applications Expand Surface Science: Cleaning up Syngas to Reach

  5. Notes from Financial and Physical Oil Market Linkages

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Workshop Summary Notes Financial and Physical Oil Market Linkages II September 27, 2012 Department of Energy 1000 Independence Avenue, SW Washington, D.C. 20585 Session 1: 9:15 a.m. - 10:45 a.m. Paper Title: Physical Market Conditions, Paper Market Activity, and the Brent-WTI Spread Presenter: Michel Robe, American University Discussant: Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Presentation: [Presentation materials link in here] Paper Abstract We document that, starting in the Fall of 2008, the

  6. NOTES AND COMMENTS REVERE COPPER AR! BRASS DETROIT, MICHIGAN

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    * .t-* . * * - -. _ _ ,.. .I AIT. 4 NOTES AND COMMENTS REVERE COPPER AR! BRASS DETROIT, MICHIGAN A preliminary (screening) survey was conducted in several areas of the Revere Copper and Brass Facility, 5851 W. Jefferson Street, Detroit, Michigan. The survey was conducted by the ANL Radiological Survey Group on April 22, 1981. The Survey Group, consisting of W. Smith, R. Mundis, K. Flynn (all of ANI), and E. Jascewsky (DOE-CH) met on site with J. Evans (Safety Engineer), D. Tratt (Asst.

  7. Microsoft Word - Final TEC Notes_April 2005.doc

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (D0E) TRANSPORTATION EXTERNAL COORDINATION WORKING GROUP (TEC) MEETING April 4-5, 2005 Phoenix, Arizona Meeting Notes Part I - Opening Remarks (April 4) Welcome and Meeting Overview Introduction Judith Holm, DOE Office of National Transportation (ONT), Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), called the meeting to order and welcomed the participants. She reviewed the agenda and called special attention to the plenary sessions being held in the afternoon.

  8. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  9. Periodic permanent magnet focused klystron

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ferguson, Patrick; Read, Michael; Ives, R Lawrence

    2015-04-21

    A periodic permanent magnet (PPM) klystron has beam transport structures and RF cavity structures, each of which has permanent magnets placed substantially equidistant from a beam tunnel formed about the central axis, and which are also outside the extent of a cooling chamber. The RF cavity sections also have permanent magnets which are placed substantially equidistant from the beam tunnel, but which include an RF cavity coupling to the beam tunnel for enhancement of RF carried by an electron beam in the beam tunnel.

  10. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  12. Notes from Financial and Physical Oil Market Linkages

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Notes from Financial and Physical Oil Market Linkages August 24, 2011 Session 1: 9:30 a.m. - 11:00 a.m. Paper Title: Does 'Paper Oil' Matter? Presenter: Michel Robe, American University Discussant: James Smith, Southern Methodist University Paper Abstract We construct a uniquely detailed, comprehensive dataset of trader positions in U.S. energy futures markets. We find considerable changes in the make-up of the open interest between 2000 and 2010 and show that these changes impact asset pricing.

  13. COLLOQUIUM: NOTE SPECIAL DATE - THURSDAY: Unique Vulnerability of the New

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    York/New Jersey Metro Region to Hurricane Destruction - A New Perspective Based on Recent Research on Irene 2011 and Sandy 2012 | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab February 28, 2013, 4:15pm to 5:30pm Colloquia MBG Auditorium COLLOQUIUM: NOTE SPECIAL DATE - THURSDAY: Unique Vulnerability of the New York/New Jersey Metro Region to Hurricane Destruction - A New Perspective Based on Recent Research on Irene 2011 and Sandy 2012 Professor Nicholas K. Coch Queens College CUNY In the last two years. the

  14. V-229: IBM Lotus iNotes Input Validation Flaws Permit Cross-Site...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    V-229: IBM Lotus iNotes Input Validation Flaws Permit Cross-Site Scripting Attacks August ... Addthis Related Articles V-211: IBM iNotes Multiple Vulnerabilities U-198: IBM Lotus ...

  15. V-147: IBM Lotus Notes Mail Client Lets Remote Users Execute...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    7: IBM Lotus Notes Mail Client Lets Remote Users Execute Java Applets V-147: IBM Lotus Notes Mail Client Lets Remote Users Execute Java Applets May 2, 2013 - 6:00am Addthis...

  16. PVMRW2013 Discussion notes. Tues. Feb. 26, 5:30 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    notes. Tues. Feb. 26, 5:30 PVMRW2013 Discussion notes. Tues. Feb. 26, 5:30 We do see some bad diodes going into the field... PDF icon discussionnotes_tues_530.pdf More Documents & Publications PVMRW2013 Discussion notes: Tues. Feb. 26: 10:45 PVMRW2013 Discussion notes Tues. Feb. 26 2013, 2:30 On the Occurrence of Thermal Runaway in Diode in the J-Box

  17. PVMRW2013 Wed., Feb. 27, 10:00 Discussion notes: | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    0:00 Discussion notes: PVMRW2013 Wed., Feb. 27, 10:00 Discussion notes: We hear that the dampl heat test causes failures that are not representative of field failure... PDF icon discussionnotes_weds_1000.pdf More Documents & Publications PVMRW2013 Discussion notes: Tues. Feb. 26: 10:45 PVMRW2013 Wed., Feb. 27, 1:45 Discussion notes PVMRW2013 Wed., Feb. 27, 3:00 Final Discussion

  18. U.S. Department of Energy Onboard Storage Tank Workshop Notes | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Onboard Storage Tank Workshop Notes U.S. Department of Energy Onboard Storage Tank Workshop Notes These notes and action items were derived from the Onboard Storage Tank Workshop on April 29, 2010. PDF icon workshop_notes_ostw.pdf More Documents & Publications DOE Vehicular Tank Workshop Agenda Hydrogen Tank Testing R&D Developing SAE Safety Standards for Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs)

  19. PVMRW2013 Discussion notes Tues. Feb. 26 2013, 2:30 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    notes Tues. Feb. 26 2013, 2:30 PVMRW2013 Discussion notes Tues. Feb. 26 2013, 2:30 Some participants felt that modules should not be walked on... PDF icon discussionnotes_tues_230.pdf More Documents & Publications PVMRW2013 Discussion notes: Tues. Feb. 26: 10:45

  20. PVMRW2013 Discussion notes: Tues. Feb. 26: 10:45 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    notes: Tues. Feb. 26: 10:45 PVMRW2013 Discussion notes: Tues. Feb. 26: 10:45 If the mechanical properties of the parts of the module... PDF icon discussionnotes_tues_1045.pdf More Documents & Publications PVMRW2013 Discussion notes Tues. Feb. 26 2013, 2:30

  1. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  2. Property:Maximum Wave Height(m) at Wave Period(s) | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    at Wave Period(s) Jump to: navigation, search Property Name Maximum Wave Height(m) at Wave Period(s) Property Type String Pages using the property "Maximum Wave Height(m) at Wave...

  3. V-211: IBM iNotes Multiple Vulnerabilities | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1: IBM iNotes Multiple Vulnerabilities V-211: IBM iNotes Multiple Vulnerabilities August 5, 2013 - 6:00am Addthis PROBLEM: Multiple vulnerabilities have been reported in IBM Lotus iNotes PLATFORM: IBM iNotes 9.x ABSTRACT: IBM iNotes has two cross-site scripting vulnerabilities and an ActiveX Integer overflow vulnerability REFERENCE LINKS: Secunia Advisory SA54436 IBM Security Bulletin 1645503 CVE-2013-3027 CVE-2013-3032 CVE-2013-3990 IMPACT ASSESSMENT: High DISCUSSION: 1) Certain input related

  4. V-229: IBM Lotus iNotes Input Validation Flaws Permit Cross-Site Scripting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Attacks | Department of Energy 9: IBM Lotus iNotes Input Validation Flaws Permit Cross-Site Scripting Attacks V-229: IBM Lotus iNotes Input Validation Flaws Permit Cross-Site Scripting Attacks August 28, 2013 - 6:00am Addthis PROBLEM: Several vulnerabilities were reported in IBM Lotus iNotes PLATFORM: IBM Lotus iNotes 8.5.x ABSTRACT: IBM Lotus iNotes 8.5.x contains four cross-site scripting vulnerabilities REFERENCE LINKS: Security Tracker Alert ID 1028954 IBM Security Bulletin 1647740

  5. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  6. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below $3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below $3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular gasoline should average $2.33 per gallon this year. The price of gasoline increased in early February after falling for 17 weeks in a row. But gasoline prices will continue to remain low in 2015 when compared with pump prices in recent

  7. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  8. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  9. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  10. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  11. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  12. PVMRW2013 Wed., Feb. 27, 1:45 Discussion notes | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1:45 Discussion notes PVMRW2013 Wed., Feb. 27, 1:45 Discussion notes It could be useful to mix UVA and UVB and test the effects of both at the same time... PDF icon discussionnotes_weds_145.pdf More Documents & Publications PVMRW2013 Wed., Feb. 27, 10:00 Discussion notes: PVMRW2013 Wed., Feb. 27, 3:00 Final Discussion

  13. Seismic isolation of two dimensional periodic foundations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yan, Y.; Mo, Y. L.; Laskar, A.; Cheng, Z.; Shi, Z.; Menq, F.; Tang, Y.

    2014-07-28

    Phononic crystal is now used to control acoustic waves. When the crystal goes to a larger scale, it is called periodic structure. The band gaps of the periodic structure can be reduced to range from 0.5?Hz to 50?Hz. Therefore, the periodic structure has potential applications in seismic wave reflection. In civil engineering, the periodic structure can be served as the foundation of upper structure. This type of foundation consisting of periodic structure is called periodic foundation. When the frequency of seismic waves falls into the band gaps of the periodic foundation, the seismic wave can be blocked. Field experiments of a scaled two dimensional (2D) periodic foundation with an upper structure were conducted to verify the band gap effects. Test results showed the 2D periodic foundation can effectively reduce the response of the upper structure for excitations with frequencies within the frequency band gaps. When the experimental and the finite element analysis results are compared, they agree well with each other, indicating that 2D periodic foundation is a feasible way of reducing seismic vibrations.

  14. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  15. PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 4 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 4 April 6, 2015 PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 4 VIEW PERIODICAL HERE

  16. Do triatomic molecules echo atomic periodicity?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hefferlin, R. Barrow, J.

    2015-03-30

    Demonstrations of periodicity among triatomic-molecular spectroscopic constants underscore the role of the periodic law as a foundation of chemistry. The objective of this work is to prepare for another test using vibration frequencies ?{sub 1} of free, ground-state, main-group triatomic molecules. Using data from four data bases and from computation, we have collected ?{sub 1} data for molecules formed from second period atoms.

  17. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  18. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  19. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  20. This Week In Petroleum Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    over the forecast period, it may be more important to note that EIA expects WTI to stay well above 40 per barrel through all of 2006, and that WTI is expected to be around...

  1. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  2. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  3. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  4. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  5. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  6. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  7. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energys Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nations low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energys Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  8. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  9. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  10. Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    5060 Sargent & Lundy LLC Consulting Group Chicago, Illinois Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 NREL is a U.S. Department of Energy Laboratory Operated by Midwest Research Institute * Battelle * Bechtel Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337 October 2003 * NREL/SR-550-35060 Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower

  11. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho and Oregon

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy and the electricity industry have jointly invested over $7.9 billion in 99 cost-shared Smart Grid Investment Grant projects to modernize the electric grid, strengthen cybersecurity, improve interoperability, and collect an unprecedented level of data on smart grid and customer operations. 1. Summary Idaho Power Company (IPC)

  12. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  13. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  14. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  15. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  16. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  17. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  18. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  19. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  20. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast February 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Uncertainties in the Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data,

  1. PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 3 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Vol. 6, Issue 3 February 9, 2015 PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 3 View Periodical Here

  2. Variable-Period Undulators For Synchrotron Radiation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Gopal (Naperville, IL); Lewellen, John (Plainfield, IL); Shu, Deming (Darien, IL); Vinokurov, Nikolai (Novosibirsk, RU)

    2005-02-22

    A new and improved undulator design is provided that enables a variable period length for the production of synchrotron radiation from both medium-energy and high-energy storage rings. The variable period length is achieved using a staggered array of pole pieces made up of high permeability material, permanent magnet material, or an electromagnetic structure. The pole pieces are separated by a variable width space. The sum of the variable width space and the pole width would therefore define the period of the undulator. Features and advantages of the invention include broad photon energy tunability, constant power operation and constant brilliance operation.

  3. Total Estimated Contract Cost: Performance Period

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    FY2012 Fee Information Minimum Fee Maximum Fee September 2015 Contract Number: Cost Plus Incentive Fee Contractor: 3,264,909,094 Contract Period: EM Contractor Fee s Idaho...

  4. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

  5. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID tomore » build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

  6. Scheduled Maintenance Periods | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Scheduled Maintenance Periods The CNM holds three maintenance periods per year. During these times certain CNM facilities may not be available for user activities. The Sector 26 beamline will not be available, the High-Performance Computing Cluster and nanofabrication facilities often are not available, and other facilities may undergo maintenance for only one or two days. Please contact your CNM Scientific Contact prior to arrival and plan your work visits and schedules accordingly. To better

  7. Workshop Notes from ""Compressed Natural Gas and Hydrogen Fuels: Lessons

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Learned for the Safe Deployment of Vehicles"" Workshop, December 10-11, 2009 | Department of Energy Notes from ""Compressed Natural Gas and Hydrogen Fuels: Lessons Learned for the Safe Deployment of Vehicles"" Workshop, December 10-11, 2009 Workshop Notes from ""Compressed Natural Gas and Hydrogen Fuels: Lessons Learned for the Safe Deployment of Vehicles"" Workshop, December 10-11, 2009 These notes provide information about the Compressed

  8. Periodic subsystem density-functional theory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Genova, Alessandro; Pavanello, Michele; Ceresoli, Davide

    2014-11-07

    By partitioning the electron density into subsystem contributions, the Frozen Density Embedding (FDE) formulation of subsystem Density Functional Theory (DFT) has recently emerged as a powerful tool for reducing the computational scaling of KohnSham DFT. To date, however, FDE has been employed to molecular systems only. Periodic systems, such as metals, semiconductors, and other crystalline solids have been outside the applicability of FDE, mostly because of the lack of a periodic FDE implementation. To fill this gap, in this work we aim at extending FDE to treat subsystems of molecular and periodic character. This goal is achieved by a dual approach. On one side, the development of a theoretical framework for periodic subsystem DFT. On the other, the realization of the method into a parallel computer code. We find that periodic FDE is capable of reproducing total electron densities and (to a lesser extent) also interaction energies of molecular systems weakly interacting with metallic surfaces. In the pilot calculations considered, we find that FDE fails in those cases where there is appreciable density overlap between the subsystems. Conversely, we find FDE to be in semiquantitative agreement with KohnSham DFT when the inter-subsystem density overlap is low. We also conclude that to make FDE a suitable method for describing molecular adsorption at surfaces, kinetic energy density functionals that go beyond the GGA level must be employed.

  9. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence determination of a waste tank criticality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for criticality consequences for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Criticality scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  10. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence determination of a waste tank criticality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-08-02

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis forcriticality consequences for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report(FSAR). Criticality scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  11. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-09

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  12. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  13. Publisher's Note: New mechanism for the top-bottom mass hierarchy...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    New mechanism for the top-bottom mass hierarchy Phys. Rev. D 70, 055006 (2004) Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Publisher's Note: New mechanism for the top-bottom mass ...

  14. PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 3 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 3 February 16, 2016 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 3 VIEW ARTICLE HERE News/Media PARC Periodical

  15. Microsoft Word - QER Resilience June 10 Tech Workshop MTG NOTES_FINAL

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Meeting Notes U.S. Department of Energy Quadrennial Energy Review Technical Workshop on Resilience Metrics for Energy Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure Offices of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) and Energy Policy and Systems Analysis (EPSA) Tuesday, June, 10th, 2014 Brookhaven National Lab These notes are intended to be an accurate representation of the presentations and discussions occurring during this workshop. Purpose The purpose of this workshop was to seek

  16. Meeting Notes U.S. Department of Energy Quadrennial Energy Review

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Meeting Notes U.S. Department of Energy Quadrennial Energy Review Technical Workshop on AMR Lessons Learned on Alternative Transportation Refueling Infrastructure Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis June 20, 2014 Washington Marriott Wardman Park 2660 Woodley Rd NW Washington, D.C. 20008 This summary of meeting notes reports the discussion as it occurred. The Department of Energy (DOE) does not endorse the content summarized within. Contents Purpose

  17. Microsoft Word - VERA 3.3 Release Notes - DRAFT 2.docx

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2-000 VERA 3.3 Release Notes Matt Sieger Oak Ridge National Laboratory April 20, 2015 VERA 3.3 Release Notes Consortium for Advanced Simulation of LWRs ii CASL-U-2015-0042-000 REVISION LOG Revision Date Affected Pages Revision Description 0 All Initial Release Document pages that are: Export Controlled _____None_____________________________________________ IP/Proprietary/NDA Controlled____None_____________________________________________ Sensitive

  18. United States Environmental Protection Agency Radiation Office of Radiation Programs Technical Note

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    Environmental Protection Agency Radiation Office of Radiation Programs Technical Note Las Vegas Facility ORP/LV-78-3 P.O. Box 15027 October 1978 Las Vegas NV 89114 &EPA Levels and Distribution of Environmental Plutonium Around the Trinity Site Technical Note ORP/LV-78-3 LEVELS AND DISTRIBUTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL PLUTONIUM AROUND THE TRINITY SITE Richard L. Douglas October 1978 OFFICE OF RADIATION PROGRAMS - LAS VEGAS FACILITY U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY LAS VEGAS, NEVADA 89114

  19. Geothermal Industry Ends 2012 on a High Note | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Industry Ends 2012 on a High Note Geothermal Industry Ends 2012 on a High Note December 18, 2012 - 12:14pm Addthis Year-end highlights include new domestic projects, international development and policy benchmarks Washington, D.C. - The past 12 months saw continued economic challenges for many American industries, including those in the renewable energy field, but the country's geothermal community witnessed a year of growth, both domestically and abroad. The Geothermal Energy Association (GEA)

  20. Magnetomechanically induced long period fiber gratings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Causado-Buelvas, Jesus D.; Gomez-Cardona, Nelson D.; Torres, Pedro

    2008-04-15

    In this work, we report a simple, flexible method to create long period fiber gratings mechanically by controlling the repulsion/attraction force between two magnets that pressing a plate with a periodic array of small glass cylinders to a short length of optical fiber. Via the photoelastic effect, the pressure points induce the required periodic refractive index modulation to create the LPFG. We found that the induced device exhibits spectral characteristics similar to those of other types of LPFG. As the optical properties of LPFGs are directly related to the nature of the applied perturbations, we show, to our knowledge for the frrst time, how is the evolution of birefringence effects in mechanically induced LPFGs.

  1. The art and science of magnet design: Selected notes of Klaus Halbach. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-02-01

    This volume contains a compilation of 57 notes written by Dr. Klaus Halbach selected from his collection of over 1650 such documents. It provides an historic snapshot of the evolution of magnet technology and related fields as the notes range from as early as 1965 to the present, and is intended to show the breadth of Dr. Halbach`s interest and ability that have long been an inspiration to his many friends and colleagues. As Halbach is an experimental physicist whose scientific interests span many areas, and who does his most innovative work with pencil and paper rather than at the workbench or with a computer, the vast majority of the notes in this volume were handwritten and their content varies greatly--some reflect original work or work for a specific project, while others are mere clarifications of mathematical calculations or design specifications. As the authors converted the notes to electronic form, some were superficially edited and corrected, while others were extensively re-written to reflect current knowledge and notation. The notes are organized under five categories which reflect their primary content: Beam Position Monitors, (bpm), Current Sheet Electron Magnets (csem), Magnet Theory, (thry), Undulators and Wigglers (u-w), and Miscellaneous (misc). Within the category, they are presented chronologically starting from the most recent note and working backwards in time.

  2. Off-site Intensive Operational Period

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2 ARM Participating in Off-site Intensive Operational Period The ARM Program is playing a role in the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) intensive operational period (IOP), under way through July in South Florida. The objective of CRYSTAL-FACE is to investigate the physical properties and formation processes of tropical cirrus clouds. The ARM Program has deployed a suite of ground-based instruments in Florida for CRYSTAL-FACE

  3. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  4. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  5. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in 2016. U.S. crude oil production is still expected to average 9.2 million barrels per day this year. That's up half a million barrels per day from last year and the highest output level in more than four decades. A substantial part of the year-over-year increase reflects rapid production growth throughout 2014.

  6. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ? We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ? The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ? At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ? At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ? At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  7. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  8. PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 1 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    1 October 1, 2014 PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 1

  9. PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 2 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2 December 1, 2014 PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 2

  10. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  11. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  12. A note from Howard H. Baker, Jr. | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    A note from Howard H. ... A note from Howard H. Baker, Jr. Posted: February 11, 2013 - 3:49pm | Y-12 Report | Volume 9, Issue 2 | 2013 "I remember visiting Oak Ridge at the height of its construction. The town had grown up out of corn fields in super secrecy. My dad and I didn't know its purpose, but we knew it involved important, vital work. That vitally important work continues today. For 70 years Y-12, in particular, has served the nation as a reservoir of talent and insight. The very

  13. Publisher's Note: High-spin lifetime measurements in the N=Z nucleus {sup

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    72}Kr [Phys. Rev. C 75, 041301(R) (2007)] (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Publisher's Note: High-spin lifetime measurements in the N=Z nucleus {sup 72}Kr [Phys. Rev. C 75, 041301(R) (2007)] Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Publisher's Note: High-spin lifetime measurements in the N=Z nucleus {sup 72}Kr [Phys. Rev. C 75, 041301(R) (2007)] No abstract prepared. Authors: Andreoiu, C. ; Svensson, C. E. ; Afanasjev, A. V. ; Austin, R. A. E. ; Carpenter, M. P. ; Dashdorj, D. ; Finlay,

  14. Down-hole periodic seismic generator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hardee, H.C.; Hills, R.G.; Striker, R.P.

    1982-10-28

    A down hole periodic seismic generator system is disclosed for transmitting variable frequency, predominantly shear-wave vibration into earth strata surrounding a borehole. The system comprises a unitary housing operably connected to a well head by support and electrical cabling and contains clamping apparatus for selectively clamping the housing to the walls of the borehole. The system further comprises a variable speed pneumatic oscillator and a self-contained pneumatic reservoir for producing a frequency-swept seismic output over a discrete frequency range.

  15. Mo Year Report Period: EIA ID NUMBER:

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mo Year Report Period: EIA ID NUMBER: http://www.eia.gov/survey/form/eia_14/instructions.pdf Mailing Address: Secure File Transfer option available at: (e.g., PO Box, RR) https://signon.eia.doe.gov/upload/noticeoog.jsp Electronic Transmission: The PC Electronic Zip Code - Data Reporting Option (PEDRO) is available. If interested in software, call (202) 586-9659. Email form to: OOG.SURVEYS@eia.doe.gov - - - - Fax form to: (202) 586-9772 Mail form to: Oil & Gas Survey Email address: U.S.

  16. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  17. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  18. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB Veteran-Owned SB Service Disabled Vet. SB FY 2009 Dollars Goal (projected) $183,949,920 $82,690,000 $4,550,000 $8,829,596 $3,370,000 $5,025,000 $460,000 FY 2009 Dollars Accomplished $143,846,731 $68,174,398 $9,247,214 $11,333,905 $4,979,858 $6,713,791 $1,612,136 FY 2009 % Goal 45.0% 2.5% 4.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.25% FY

  19. Explanatory Notes

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    data at a State level on 14 petroleum products for various retail and wholesale marketing categories. The Form EIA-782B collects resellerretailer monthly price and volume...

  20. Explanatory Notes

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    complete enumera- tion has the same nonsampling errors as the sample survey. The sampling error, or standard error of the estimate, is a measure of the variability among the...

  1. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    August 4, 1992 TO: Alexander Williams FROM: Ed Mitchell, Steve Fieser ' 565 SUBJECT: Revised Designation Package for Baker Brothers Site We have prepared the Designation Summary you requested for Baker Brothers Site, in Toledo, Ohio. This package supersedes the previous one provided on May 1, 1992, to reflect the documents that have since been finalized. The designationpackage consists of the following: o Designation Summary (8/4/92) o Authority Review (7/16/92) o Radiological Survey (3/92) A

  2. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    February 19, 1991 TO: FROM: Alexander Williams Dan Stou ta' SUBJECT: Baker-Perkins Company Consideration Recommendation The attached memorandum and supporting documents are the basis for our recommendation to eliminate the former Baker-Perkins Company site from further consideration under FUSRAP. The current occupant of the site, located in Saginaw, Michigan, is the APV Chemical Company. Documents discovered to date indicating use or handling of radioactive material by the Baker-Perkins Company

  3. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    January 15, 1991 TO: Alexander Williams FROM: Dan Stout@ SUBJECT: Gruen Watch Company Consideration Recommendation Attached for your review is a consideration recommendation for the Gruen Watch Co. in Norwood, Ohio. The company was identified by an NLO radiological survey report. Gruen appears to have participated in brief test operations using their 60 ton mechanical press to shave and stamp washers. Small quantities of uranium appear to be involved, and the 1956 radiological surveys do not

  4. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    5, 1991 TO: Alexander Williams FROM: .B Dan Stout SUBJECT: Processes Research Elimination Recommendation The attached memorandum and supporting documents are the basis for our recommendation to eliminate the Processes Research, Incorporated site from further consideration under FUSRAP. The site is located in Cincinnati, Ohio. No documents have been discovered to date which specifically indicate use or handling of radioactive material by Processes Research. The principal record discovered is a

  5. OTS NOTE

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    2, 1990 TO: W. Alexander Williams FROM: Don Mackenzie &d> SUBJECT: Elimination of 3 Facilities from FUSRAP Enclosed are elimination recommendations for Vitro Chemical Co., Chattanooga TN, Englehard Industries, Newark NJ, and Vapofier Corp., Bluk Island IL. Based on the information referenced in the enclosed memorandA, elimination of the above sites is recommended at this time. CC: J. Wagoner II OTS File .I3 FUSRAP Files (TN.4, N;, IL.25)

  6. Property:Building/EndPeriod | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    EndPeriod Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Date. End of the period (last day of the month) Pages using the property "BuildingEndPeriod" Showing 25 pages...

  7. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  8. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  9. Total Estimated Contract Cost: Performance Period

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Fee Available (N/A) Total Fee Paid $23,179,000 $18,632,000 $16,680,000 $18,705,000 $25,495,000 $34,370,000 $32,329,000 $33,913,000 $66,794,000 $10,557,000 $3,135,000 $283,789,000 FY2015 FY2014 FY2013 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 Fee Information Minimum Fee Maximum Fee Dec 2015 Contract Number: Cost Plus Incentive Fee Contractor: $3,264,909,094 Contract Period: EM Contractor Fee s Idaho Operations Office - Idaho Falls, ID Contract Name: Idaho Cleanup Project $0 Contract Type: CH2M Washington Group

  10. Performance Period Total Fee Paid FY2001

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    FY2001 $4,547,400 FY2002 $4,871,000 FY2003 $6,177,902 FY2004 $8,743,007 FY2005 $13,134,189 FY2006 $7,489,704 FY2007 $9,090,924 FY2008 $10,045,072 FY2009 $12,504,247 FY2010 $17,590,414 FY2011 $17,558,710 FY2012 $14,528,770 Cumulative Fee Paid $126,281,339 Cost Plus Award Fee DE-AC29-01AL66444 Washington TRU Solutions LLC Contractor: Contract Number: Contract Type: $8,743,007 Contract Period: $1,813,482,000 Fee Information Maximum Fee $131,691,744 Total Estimated Contract Cost: $4,547,400

  11. Performance Period Total Fee Paid FY2008

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    FY2008 $87,580 FY2009 $87,580 FY2010 $171,763 FY2011 $1,339,286 FY 2012 $38,126 FY 2013 $42,265 Cumulative Fee Paid $1,766,600 $42,265 Cost Plus Incentive Fee/Cost Plus Fixed Fee $36,602,425 Contract Period: September 2007 - November 30, 2012 Target Fee $521,595 Total Estimated Contract Cost Contract Type: Maximum Fee $3,129,570 $175,160 $377,516 $1,439,287 Fee Available $175,160 $80,871 Accelerated Remediation Company (aRc) DE-AT30-07CC60013 Contractor: Contract Number: Minimum Fee $2,086,380

  12. Logic elements for reactor period meter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    McDowell, William P.; Bobis, James P.

    1976-01-01

    Logic elements are provided for a reactor period meter trip circuit. For one element, first and second inputs are applied to first and second chopper comparators, respectively. The output of each comparator is O if the input applied to it is greater than or equal to a trip level associated with each input and each output is a square wave of frequency f if the input applied to it is less than the associated trip level. The outputs of the comparators are algebraically summed and applied to a bandpass filter tuned to f. For another element, the output of each comparator is applied to a bandpass filter which is tuned to f to give a sine wave of frequency f. The outputs of the filters are multiplied by an analog multiplier whose output is 0 if either input is 0 and a sine wave of frequency 2f if both inputs are a frequency f.

  13. Microsoft PowerPoint - DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points in notes

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    [Read-Only] | Department of Energy DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points in notes [Read-Only] Microsoft PowerPoint - DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points in notes [Read-Only] PDF icon Microsoft PowerPoint - DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points in notes [Read-Only] More Documents & Publications Example BCP Template Microsoft PowerPoint - DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points in notes [Read-Only] CD-2, Approve Performance Baseline External Independent Review (EIR) Standard Operating

  14. Periodic Trends in Highly Dispersed Groups IV and V Supported...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Periodic Trends in Highly Dispersed Groups IV and V Supported Metal Oxide Catalysts for ... Title: Periodic Trends in Highly Dispersed Groups IV and V Supported Metal Oxide Catalysts ...

  15. Mirant: Summary of Monitored SO2 Concentrations During Periods...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    during periods of highest impact as well as ERMOD modeling results for SO2 scenarios. PDF icon Mirant: Summary of Monitored SO2 Concentrations During Periods of Highest...

  16. Negative Effective Gravity in Water Waves by Periodic Resonator...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Negative Effective Gravity in Water Waves by Periodic Resonator Arrays Prev Next Title: Negative Effective Gravity in Water Waves by Periodic Resonator Arrays Authors: Hu,...

  17. EIS-0374: Notice of Extension of Comment Period | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Comment Period EIS-0374: Notice of Extension of Comment Period Klondike IIIBiglow Canyon Wind Integration Project This notice extends the close of comment for scoping from the...

  18. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed wind speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (? ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35 and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF models MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a ? gradient method whether using observed or modelled ? profiles.

  19. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed windmore » speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.« less

  20. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the flying brick technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  1. PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 2 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center 2 December 7, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 2 VIEW ARTICLE HERE

  2. EIS-0463: Extension of Scoping Period | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Extension of Scoping Period EIS-0463: Extension of Scoping Period Presidential Permit Application for Northern Pass Transmission, New Hampshire The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is reopening the public scoping period for the Northern Pass Transmission Line Project Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (DOE/EIS-0463). In anticipation of additional alternative route information being provided by Northern Pass, DOE is reopening the scoping period. DOE will determine the close of the scoping period

  3. Microsoft Word - QER Resilience April 29 Tech Workshop MTG NOTES_v2

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Meeting Notes U.S. Department of Energy Quadrennial Energy Review Technical Workshop on Resilience Metrics for Energy Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure April, 29th, 2014 777 North Capitol St NE Ste 300, Washington, DC Purpose The purpose of this technical workshop, "Resilience Metrics for Energy Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure," is to explore existing technical research and modeling on resilience metrics, discuss the applicability of existing metrics to energy

  4. Publisher's Note: New mechanism for the top-bottom mass hierarchy [Phys.

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Rev. D 70, 055006 (2004)] (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect New mechanism for the top-bottom mass hierarchy [Phys. Rev. D 70, 055006 (2004)] Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Publisher's Note: New mechanism for the top-bottom mass hierarchy [Phys. Rev. D 70, 055006 (2004)] No abstract prepared. Authors: Hashimoto, Michio ; Kanemura, Shinya Publication Date: 2004-12-01 OSTI Identifier: 20698190 Resource Type: Journal Article Resource Relation: Journal Name: Physical Review. D,

  5. Publisher's Note: Phase effects from the general neutrino Yukawa matrix on

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    lepton flavor violation [Phys. Rev. D 72, 055012 (2005)] (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Phase effects from the general neutrino Yukawa matrix on lepton flavor violation [Phys. Rev. D 72, 055012 (2005)] Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Publisher's Note: Phase effects from the general neutrino Yukawa matrix on lepton flavor violation [Phys. Rev. D 72, 055012 (2005)] No abstract prepared. Authors: Kanemura, Shinya ; Matsuda, Koichi ; Ota, Toshihiko ; Shindou, Tetsuo ; Takasugi,

  6. PLEASE NOTE THURSDAY DATE - COLLOQUIUM: Professor Ralph Roskies - "Big Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center" | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab May 23, 2013, 4:15pm to 5:30pm Colloquia MBG Auditorium PLEASE NOTE THURSDAY DATE - COLLOQUIUM: Professor Ralph Roskies - "Big Data at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center" Professor Ralph Roskies Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center I will review the history of large data challenges and achievements at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center. Recently these have exploited three unique systems- Blacklight, with

  7. COLLOQUIUM - NOTE SPECIAL TIME OF 3:15PM: Savannah River National

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Laboratory: Underpinning Critical National Missions | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab May 15, 2013, 3:15pm to 5:30pm Colloquia MBG Auditorium COLLOQUIUM - NOTE SPECIAL TIME OF 3:15PM: Savannah River National Laboratory: Underpinning Critical National Missions Dr. Jeff Griffin Savannah River National Laboratory The Cold War mission of the Savannah River Site in South Carolina was to produce nuclear materials for the national defense. Since the Cold War ended, SRS has continued to ensure United

  8. COLLOQUIUM - PLEASE NOTE SPECIAL DATE/TIME: The Magnetospheric MultiScale

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mission Investigation of Magnetic Reconnection | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab February 21, 2013, 10:30am to 12:00pm Colloquia MBG Auditorium COLLOQUIUM - PLEASE NOTE SPECIAL DATE/TIME: The Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission Investigation of Magnetic Reconnection Professor Roy Torbert University of New Hampshire Presentation: File TC21FEB2013_RBTorbert_COMPRESSED.pptx In late fall 2014, NASA will launch the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission to study the kinetic physics of magnetic

  9. DOE Challenge Home Program A Note From Sam Rashkin: Goodbye Challenge,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    A Note From Sam Rashkin: Goodbye Challenge, Hello Zero The DOE Challenge Home is changing its name to DOE Zero Energy Ready Home. This is a big deal! We are taking on the exhaustive process of rebranding after working so hard to establish awareness of this cutting edge new program; after developing an impressive internal infrastructure (e.g., logos, brochures, website, and extensive program documentation); and after integrating the name in external initiatives (e.g., green MLS's, regional

  10. Demand forecasting and revenue requirements, with implications for consideration in British Columbia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acton, J.P.

    1983-05-01

    This paper was filed as an exhibit on behalf of The Consumers' Association of Canada (B.C. Branch), The Federated Anti-Poverty Groups of B.C., The Sierra Club of Western Canada, and the B.C. Old Age Pensioners' Organization. It was subjected to cross-examination on October 29, 1982, during Phase I of the hearings. The Utilities Commission had designated Phase I for consideration of (1) demand, (2) assets in service, (3) revenue requirements excluding return, and (4) financing and capital requirements. This paper presents a general discussion of the elements of a rate structure and their relationship to the demand for electricity, a systematic review of some 50 empirical studies of the demand for electricity as a function of price and other factors by the three principal classes of customers, and a discussion of the notion of revenue requirements. The paper should be of interest to utility regulators, rate specialists, and forecasters for its review of demand models and to academics concerned with the study of energy demand.

  11. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  12. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  13. Department of Energy Extends Comment Period on Proposed Revisions...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Extends Comment Period on Proposed Revisions to its NEPA Rules Department of Energy Extends Comment Period on Proposed Revisions to its NEPA Rules February 17, 2011 - 5:29pm ...

  14. Property:Building/StartPeriod | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    to: navigation, search This is a property of type Date. Start of the period (first day o the month) Pages using the property "BuildingStartPeriod" Showing 25 pages using this...

  15. Property:Wave Period Range(s) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Property Edit with form History Property:Wave Period Range(s) Jump to: navigation, search Property Name Wave Period Range(s) Property Type String Pages using the property "Wave...

  16. PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 5 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center Volume 6, Issue 5 June 3, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 5 VIEW ARTICLE HERE

  17. PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 6 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center Volume 6, Issue 6 August 20, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 6 VIEW ARTICLE HERE

  18. PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 1 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center 1 October 12, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 1 VIEW ARTICLE HERE News/Media

  19. EIS-0463: Reopening of Scoping Period for the Environmental Impact

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Statement | Department of Energy Reopening of Scoping Period for the Environmental Impact Statement EIS-0463: Reopening of Scoping Period for the Environmental Impact Statement Northern Pass Transmission Line Project The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is reopening the public scoping period for the Northern Pass Transmission Line Project Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (DOE/EIS-0463). The scoping period now ends on June 14, 2011. For more information see the project page at:

  20. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  1. Note: Design principles of a linear array multi-channel effusive metal-vapor atom source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jana, B.; Majumder, A.; Thakur, K. B.; Das, A. K.

    2013-10-15

    Atomic beams can easily be produced by allowing atoms to effuse through a channel. In an earlier investigation [A. Majumder et al., Vacuum 83, 989 (2009)], we had designed, fabricated, and characterized an effusive metal-vapor source using collinear-array of multi-channel. In this note, we describe the theoretical basis of designing the source. Atom density in atomic beam has been estimated using a set of analytical expressions for long-channel operated in transparent mode. Parametric studies on aspect ratio of channel, inter-channel separation, beam width, and vertical distance from the source are carried out. They are useful in providing physical picture and optimizing design parameters.

  2. Hanford Advisory Board FY2014 Work Plan - "A" List - Facilitator notes o

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Facilitator notes on midyear status for RAP-lead topics (updated 4/30/14) These are the priority topics that the Board is expected to take action on in FY2014, as agreed to by the TPA and the Board. The timing of these topics drives the need for committee meetings. Their status may change to "topics of interest" if they are delayed or deferred, and if there is agreement to do so among the EIC and Agency Liaisons. Adopted by Consensus, September 6, 2013 Page 1 of 12 Priority Topics -

  3. Summary Notes from 5 March 2008 Generic Technical Issue Discussion on Long-Term Grout Performance

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    6, 2008 Page 1 of 6 Summary Notes from 5 March 2008 Generic Technical Issue Discussion on Long-Term Grout Performance Attendees: Representatives from Department of Energy-Headquarters (DOE-HQ) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff (NRC) met at the DOE offices in Germantown, Maryland on 5 March 2008. Representatives from Department of Energy- Savannah River (DOE-SR), Department of Energy-Idaho (DOE-ID), Department of Energy-Richland (DOE-RL), Department of Energy-River Protection

  4. Note: Rapid reduction of graphene oxide paper by glow discharge plasma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bo, Zheng; Qian, Jiajing; Duan, Liangping; Qiu, Kunzan Yan, Jianhua; Cen, Kefa; Han, Zhao Jun; Ostrikov, Kostya

    2015-05-15

    This note reports on a novel method for the rapid reduction of graphene oxide (GO) paper using a glow discharge plasma reactor. Glow discharge is produced and sustained between two parallel-plate graphite electrodes at a pressure of 240 mTorr. By exposing GO paper at the junction of negative-glow and Faraday-dark area for 4 min, the oxygen-containing groups can be effectively removed (C/O ratio increases from 2.6 to 7.9), while the material integrality and flexibility are kept well. Electrochemical measurements demonstrate that the as-obtained reduced GO paper can be potentially used for supercapacitor application.

  5. Neutron Physics. A Revision of I. Halpern's notes on E. Fermi's lectures in 1945

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Beckerley, J.G.

    1951-10-16

    In the Fall of 1945 a course in Neutron Physics was given by Professor Fermi as part of the program of the Los Alamos University. The course consisted of thirty lectures most of which were given by Fermi. In his absence R.F. Christy and E. Segre gave several lectures. The present revision is based upon class notes prepared by I. Halpern with some assistance by B.T. Feld and issued first as document LADC 255 and later with wider circulation as MDDC 320.

  6. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  7. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  8. Periodicals collection management using a decision support system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Compton, M.L.; Moser, E.C.

    1993-12-31

    Sandia National Laboratories is a multiprogram national laboratory established in 1949. The Library currently uses DOBIS for its automated system, including the Periodicals Control function for periodical check-in. DOBIS performs processing and control functions adequately, but could not meet our reporting needs. Therefore the Library`s Periodicals Decision Team decided that they needed another ``system`` for collection management. A Periodicals Decision Support System was created using information downloaded from DOBIS and uploaded into dBASE IV. The Periodical Decision Support System functions as an information-processing system that has aided us in making collection management decisions for periodicals. It certainly allows us to do interactive ad-hoc analysis; although there are no modeling tools currently incorporated in the system. We hope that these modeling tools will come later. We have been gathering information and developing needed reports to achieve this goal.

  9. PARC Periodical-Volume 5, Issue 6 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Periodical-Volume 5, Issue 6 August 12, 2014 PARC Periodical-Volume 5, Issue 6 View the Periodical here

  10. Recommendation 186: Option Periods in Prime Contract Language | Department

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    of Energy 6: Option Periods in Prime Contract Language Recommendation 186: Option Periods in Prime Contract Language ORSSAB recommends the inclusion of option periods in the language of all future DOE Request for Proposals for prime contracts when appropriate. PDF icon Recommendation 186 PDF icon DOE response to recommendation 186 More Documents & Publications EM SSAB Recommendations and Letters - 2010-01 EM SSAB Recommendations and Letters - 2010-02 Recommendation 194: 2012 Budget

  11. EIS-0489: Notice of Comment Period Extension and Additional Scoping

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Meetings | Department of Energy Comment Period Extension and Additional Scoping Meetings EIS-0489: Notice of Comment Period Extension and Additional Scoping Meetings Jordan Cove Liquefaction Project (Coos County, OR) and Pacific Connector Pipeline Project (Coos, Klamath, Jackson, and Douglas Counties, OR) FERC announces the extension of the public comment periond and additional scoping meetings. The comment period has been extended from September 4, 2012 to October 29, 2012. For more

  12. CEQ Extends Comment Period on Revised Draft Guidance on Consideration...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    in NEPA Reviews CEQ Extends Comment Period on Revised Draft Guidance on Consideration of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Effects of Climate Change in NEPA Reviews February 20, ...

  13. Guidance on the Required Period for Grantees to Obligate Funds...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    on the Required Period for Grantees to Obligate Funds and the Procedures for Reporting of Obligated Funds for the Energy Efficiency Conservation Block Grant (EECBG) Program...

  14. Notice of Extension of Public Comment Period for Application...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Extension of Public Comment Period for Application for Proposed Project for Clean Line Plains & Eastern Transmission Line: Federal Register Notice, Volume 80, No. 116 - Jun. 17, ...

  15. Extension of Comment Period on the Draft Integrated, Interagency...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    of Comment Period on the Draft Integrated, Interagency Pre-Application (IIP) Process for Electric Transmission Projects Requiring Federal Authorizations Extension of Comment...

  16. High Pressure Fuel Storage Cylinders Periodic Inspection and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Fuel Storage Cylinders Periodic Inspection and End of Life Issues High Pressure Fuel ... Lessons Learned from Practical Field Experience with High Pressure Gaseous Fuels The ...

  17. EIS-0403: Notice to Extend Public Comment Period | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    States The Department of Energy and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) (the Agencies) extended the public comment period for the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement to...

  18. EIS-0431: Extension of public comment period; Notice of public...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    EIS-0431: Extension of public comment period; Notice of public hearing (Correction) Hydrogen Energy California's Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle and Carbon Capture and...

  19. "Period","Annual Production Capacity",,"Monthly B100 Production...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Biodiesel production capacity and production" "million gallons" "Period","Annual ... is the industry designation for pure biodiesel; a biodiesel blend contains both pure ...

  20. EIS-0391: Extension of the Public Comment Period | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Tank Closure and Waste Management for the Hanford Site, Richland, WA Extension of the Public Comment Period for the Draft Tank Closure and Waste Management Environmental Impact...

  1. Non-Linear Transmission Line (NLTL) Microwave Source Lecture Notes the United States Particle Accelerator School

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Russell, Steven J.; Carlsten, Bruce E.

    2012-06-26

    We will quickly go through the history of the non-linear transmission lines (NLTLs). We will describe how they work, how they are modeled and how they are designed. Note that the field of high power, NLTL microwave sources is still under development, so this is just a snap shot of their current state. Topics discussed are: (1) Introduction to solitons and the KdV equation; (2) The lumped element non-linear transmission line; (3) Solution of the KdV equation; (4) Non-linear transmission lines at microwave frequencies; (5) Numerical methods for NLTL analysis; (6) Unipolar versus bipolar input; (7) High power NLTL pioneers; (8) Resistive versus reactive load; (9) Non-lineaer dielectrics; and (10) Effect of losses.

  2. EPICS release 3.11 specific documentation -- EPICS release notes for 3.11

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1994-01-19

    EPICS release 3.11 is now ready for user testing. A person who wants to set up a simplified application environment to boot an IOC and create databases using R3.11 should follow the directions in Appendix B, page 27, of the EPICS Source/Release Control Manual, Sept. 20, 1993. The R3.11 EPICS path at ANL/APS is /net/phebos/epics/R3.11 so the command to get the new release is /net/phebos/epics/R3.11/Unix/share/bin/getrel /net/phebos/epics/R3.11. An existing R3.8 short form report can be copied to this new directory and used to create a database. ANL/APS is currently testing an Application Developers Source/Release control system. It is not yet ready for general distribution. Attached are the EPICS R3.11 release notes.

  3. Meeting notes of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) futures group

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houser, M.M.

    1995-08-01

    This report is a compilation of the notes from the ten meetings. The group charter is: (1) to identify and characterize the range of possibilities and necessities for keeping the HFIR operating for at least the next 15 years; (2) to identify and characterize the range of possibilities for enhancing the scientific and technical utility of the HFIR; (3) to evaluate the benefits or impacts of these possibilities on the various scientific fields that use the HFIR or its products; (4) to evaluate the benefits or impacts on the operation and maintenance of the HFIR facility and the regulatory requirements; (5) to estimate the costs, including operating costs, and the schedules, including downtime, for these various possibilities; and one possible impact of proposed changes may be to stimulate increased pressure for a reduced enrichment fuel for HFIR.

  4. Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anggraeni, Novia Antika

    2015-04-24

    The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.

  5. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  6. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (stochastic) model with the weather forecast model (deterministic) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  7. Period-doubling reconstructions of semiconductor partial dislocations

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Park, Ji -Sang; Huang, Bing; Wei, Su -Huai; Kang, Joongoo; McMahon, William E.

    2015-09-18

    Atomic-scale understanding and control of dislocation cores is of great technological importance, because they act as recombination centers for charge carriers in optoelectronic devices. Using hybrid density-functional calculations, we present period-doubling reconstructions of a 90° partial dislocation in GaAs, for which the periodicity of like-atom dimers along the dislocation line varies from one to two, to four dimers. The electronic properties of a dislocation change drastically with each period doubling. The dimers in the single-period dislocation are able to interact, to form a dispersive one-dimensional band with deep-gap states. However, the inter-dimer interaction for the double-period dislocation becomes significantly reduced;more » hence, it is free of mid-gap states. The Ga core undergoes a further period-doubling transition to a quadruple-period reconstruction induced by the formation of small hole polarons. Lastly, the competition between these dislocation phases suggests a new passivation strategy via population manipulation of the detrimental single-period phase.« less

  8. Quantum coherent switch utilizing commensurate nanoelectrode and charge density periodicities

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Harrison; Neil , Singleton; John , Migliori; Albert

    2008-08-05

    A quantum coherent switch having a substrate formed from a density wave (DW) material capable of having a periodic electron density modulation or spin density modulation, a dielectric layer formed onto a surface of the substrate that is orthogonal to an intrinsic wave vector of the DW material; and structure for applying an external spatially periodic electrostatic potential over the dielectric layer.

  9. Development of Seismic Isolation Systems Using Periodic Materials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yan, Yiqun; Mo, Yi-Lung; Menq, Farn-Yuh; Stokoe, II, Kenneth H.; Perkins, Judy; Tang, Yu

    2014-12-10

    Advanced fast nuclear power plants and small modular fast reactors are composed of thin-walled structures such as pipes; as a result, they do not have sufficient inherent strength to resist seismic loads. Seismic isolation, therefore, is an effective solution for mitigating earthquake hazards for these types of structures. Base isolation, on which numerous studies have been conducted, is a well-defined structure protection system against earthquakes. In conventional isolators, such as high-damping rubber bearings, lead-rubber bearings, and friction pendulum bearings, large relative displacements occur between upper structures and foundations. Only isolation in a horizontal direction is provided; these features are not desirable for the piping systems. The concept of periodic materials, based on the theory of solid-state physics, can be applied to earthquake engineering. The periodic material is a material that possesses distinct characteristics that prevent waves with certain frequencies from being transmitted through it; therefore, this material can be used in structural foundations to block unwanted seismic waves with certain frequencies. The frequency band of periodic material that can filter out waves is called the band gap, and the structural foundation made of periodic material is referred to as the periodic foundation. The design of a nuclear power plant, therefore, can be unified around the desirable feature of a periodic foundation, while the continuous maintenance of the structure is not needed. In this research project, three different types of periodic foundations were studied: one-dimensional, two-dimensional, and three-dimensional. The basic theories of periodic foundations are introduced first to find the band gaps; then the finite element methods are used, to perform parametric analysis, and obtain attenuation zones; finally, experimental programs are conducted, and the test data are analyzed to verify the theory. This procedure shows that the periodic foundation is a promising and effective way to mitigate structural damage caused by earthquake excitation.

  10. Department of Energy Extends Public Comment Period | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Extends Public Comment Period Department of Energy Extends Public Comment Period September 29, 2011 - 12:00pm Addthis Media Contacts Darwin J. Morgan morgan@nv.doe.gov 702-295-3521 Kelly K. Snyder snyderk@nv.doe.gov 702-295-3521 In response to public comments and requests, the U.S. Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office is extending the public comment period for the Draft Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement (SWEIS) for the Nevada National Security

  11. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  12. Property:Building/MeanAnnualTempCalculationPeriod | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Property Edit with form History Property:BuildingMeanAnnualTempCalculationPeriod Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Mean annual temperature during the...

  13. Progress report for the period October 1981-September 1982

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-02-01

    The mission-related activities of the DOE New Brunswick Laboratory involving development, calibration, and evaluation of nuclear material measurement technology and providing measurement-related services for the Government during the period are described and summarized.

  14. Linear Scaling Electronic Structure Methods with Periodic Boundary Conditions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gustavo E. Scuseria

    2008-02-08

    The methodological development and computational implementation of linear scaling quantum chemistry methods for the accurate calculation of electronic structure and properties of periodic systems (solids, surfaces, and polymers) and their application to chemical problems of DOE relevance.

  15. D-Zero Central Calorimeter Pressure Vessel and Vacuum Vessel Safety Notes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rucinski, R.; Luther, R.; /Fermilab

    1990-10-25

    The relief valve and relief piping capacity was calculated to be 908 sefm air. This exceeds all relieving conditions. The vessel also has a rupture disc with a 2640 scfm air stamped capacity. In order to significantly decrease the amount of time required to fill the cryostats, it is desired to raise the setpoint of the 'operating' relief valve on the argon storage dewar to 20 psig from its existing 16 psig setting. This additional pressure increases the flow to the cryostats and will overwhelm the relief capacity if the temperature of the modules within these vessels is warm enough. Using some conservative assumptions and simple calculations within this note, the maximum average temperature that the modules within each cryostat can be at prior to filling from the storage dewar with liquid argon is at least 290 K. The average temperature of the module mass for any of the three cryostats can be as high as 290 K prior to filling that particular cryostat. This should not be confused with the average temperature of a single type or location which is useful in protecting the modules-not necessarily the vessel itself. A few modules of each type and at different elevations should be used in an average which would account for the different weights of each module. Note that at 290 K, the actual flow of argon through the relief valve and the rupture disk was under the maximum theoretical flows for each relief device. This means that the bulk temperature could actually have been raised to flow argon through the reliefs at their maximum capacity. Therefore, the temperature of 290 K is a conservative value for the calculated flow rate of 12.3 gpm. Safeguards in addition to and used in conjunction with operating procedures shall be implemented in such a way so that the above temperature limitation is not exceeded and such that it is exclusive of the programmable logic controller (PLC). One suggestion is using a toggle switch for each cryostat mounted in the PLC I/O box which would maintain control of the signals to open the cold fill valves of each cryostat. With the safeguards in place while carefully monitoring the temperatures during a cooldown cycle in each cryostat, the set pressure in the argon storage dewar can safely be increased to 20 psig.

  16. ARM Intensive Operational Period Scheduled to Validate New NASA Satellite

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2 ARM Intensive Operational Period Scheduled to Validate New NASA Satellite Beginning in July, all three ARM sites (Southern Great Plains [SGP], North Slope of Alaska, and Tropical Western Pacific; Figure 1) will participate in the AIRS Validation IOP. This three-month intensive operational period (IOP) will validate data collected by the satellite-based Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) recently launched into space. On May 4, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) launched

  17. Extension of Comment Period on Improving Performance of Federal Permitting

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    and Review of Infrastructure Projects: Federal Register Notice Volume 78, No. 186 - September 25, 2013 | Department of Energy Extension of Comment Period on Improving Performance of Federal Permitting and Review of Infrastructure Projects: Federal Register Notice Volume 78, No. 186 - September 25, 2013 Extension of Comment Period on Improving Performance of Federal Permitting and Review of Infrastructure Projects: Federal Register Notice Volume 78, No. 186 - September 25, 2013 On August 29,

  18. DOE Extends Public Comment Period for Uranium Program Environmental Impact

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Statement | Department of Energy Uranium Program Environmental Impact Statement DOE Extends Public Comment Period for Uranium Program Environmental Impact Statement April 18, 2013 - 1:08pm Addthis Contractor, Bob Darr, S.M. Stoller Corporation Public Affairs, (720) 377-9672, ULinfo@lm.doe.gov GRAND JUNCTION, Colo. - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today announced that the public comment period for the Draft Uranium Leasing Program Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (ULP PEIS)

  19. Extension of Comment Period on Improving Performance of Federal Permitting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Review of Infrastructure Projects: Federal Register Notice Volume 78, No. 186 - September 25, 2013 | Department of Energy Extension of Comment Period on Improving Performance of Federal Permitting and Review of Infrastructure Projects: Federal Register Notice Volume 78, No. 186 - September 25, 2013 Extension of Comment Period on Improving Performance of Federal Permitting and Review of Infrastructure Projects: Federal Register Notice Volume 78, No. 186 - September 25, 2013 On August 29,

  20. Extension of Comment Period on the Draft Integrated, Interagency

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Pre-Application (IIP) Process for Electric Transmission Projects Requiring Federal Authorizations | Department of Energy Extension of Comment Period on the Draft Integrated, Interagency Pre-Application (IIP) Process for Electric Transmission Projects Requiring Federal Authorizations Extension of Comment Period on the Draft Integrated, Interagency Pre-Application (IIP) Process for Electric Transmission Projects Requiring Federal Authorizations September 25, 2013 - 4:24pm Addthis On August 29,

  1. Department of Energy Announces Plans for Additional Comment Period on

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors | Department of Energy Announces Plans for Additional Comment Period on National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors Department of Energy Announces Plans for Additional Comment Period on National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors November 9, 2006 - 9:38am Addthis Under Section 1221(a) of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, the Department of Energy must issue a report based on the Department's August 8 Congestion Study. In that report,

  2. Emissions from Idling Trucks for Extended Time Periods | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Idling Trucks for Extended Time Periods Emissions from Idling Trucks for Extended Time Periods 2002 DEER Conference Presentation: Oak Ridge National Laboratory PDF icon 2002_deer_lewis.pdf More Documents & Publications 21st Century Truck Partnership - Roadmap and Technical White Papers Appendix of Supporting Information - 21CTP-0003, December 2006 Technical Demonstration of 2010 Emissions Regulations over Transient Operation 21st Century Truck Partnership Roadmap Roadmap and

  3. Notice of extension of public comment period for reply comments. |

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Department of Energy extension of public comment period for reply comments. Notice of extension of public comment period for reply comments. On July 27, 2010, the Department of Energy (DOE) published in the Federal Register a notice of inquiry (NOI) and request for comment from the public in its development of regulations pertaining to section 934, of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (''Act''). Section 934 addresses how the United States will meet its obligations under the

  4. WASP-19b: THE SHORTEST PERIOD TRANSITING EXOPLANET YET DISCOVERED

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hebb, L.; Collier-Cameron, A.; Enoch, B.; Horne, K.; Triaud, A.H.M.J.; Gillon, M.; Queloz, D.; Mayor, M.; Pepe, F.; Segransan, D.; Lister, T.A.; Smalley, B.; Maxted, P.F.L.; Hellier, C.; Anderson, D.R.; Bentley, S.; Pollacco, D.; West, R.G.; Haswell, C.A.; Skillen, I.

    2010-01-01

    We report on the discovery of a new extremely short period transiting extrasolar planet, WASP-19b. The planet has mass M{sub pl} = 1.15 +- 0.08 M{sub J} , radius R{sub pl} = 1.31 +- 0.06 R{sub J} , and orbital period P = 0.7888399 +- 0.0000008 days. Through spectroscopic analysis, we determine the host star to be a slightly super-solar metallicity ([M/H] = 0.1 +- 0.1 dex) G-dwarf with T{sub eff} = 5500 +- 100 K. In addition, we detect periodic, sinusoidal flux variations in the light curve which are used to derive a rotation period for the star of P{sub rot} = 10.5 +- 0.2 days. The relatively short stellar rotation period suggests that either WASP-19 is somewhat young (approx 600 Myr old) or tidal interactions between the two bodies have caused the planet to spiral inward over its lifetime resulting in the spin-up of the star. Due to the detection of the rotation period, this system has the potential to place strong constraints on the stellar tidal quality factor, Q'{sub s}, if a more precise age is determined.

  5. Effects of the Financial Crisis on Photovoltaics: An Analysis of Changes in Market Forecasts from 2008 to 2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bartlett, J. E.; Margolis, R. M.; Jennings, C. E.

    2009-09-01

    To examine how the financial crisis has impacted expectations of photovoltaic production, demand and pricing over the next several years, we surveyed the market forecasts of industry analysts that had issued projections in 2008 and 2009. We find that the financial crisis has had a significant impact on the PV industry, primarily through increasing the cost and reducing the availability of investment into the sector. These effects have been more immediately experienced by PV installations than by production facilities, due to the different types and duration of investments, and thus PV demand has been reduced by a greater proportion than PV production. By reducing demand more than production, the financial crisis has accelerated previously expected PV overcapacity and resulting price declines.

  6. Technical Note: Modeling a complex micro-multileaf collimator using the standard BEAMnrc distribution

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kairn, T.; Kenny, J.; Crowe, S. B.; Fielding, A. L.; Franich, R. D.; Johnston, P. N.; Knight, R. T.; Langton, C. M.; Schlect, D.; Trapp, J. V.

    2010-04-15

    Purpose: The component modules in the standard BEAMnrc distribution may appear to be insufficient to model micro-multileaf collimators that have trifaceted leaf ends and complex leaf profiles. This note indicates, however, that accurate Monte Carlo simulations of radiotherapy beams defined by a complex collimation device can be completed using BEAMnrc's standard VARMLC component module. Methods: That this simple collimator model can produce spatially and dosimetrically accurate microcollimated fields is illustrated using comparisons with ion chamber and film measurements of the dose deposited by square and irregular fields incident on planar, homogeneous water phantoms. Results: Monte Carlo dose calculations for on-axis and off-axis fields are shown to produce good agreement with experimental values, even on close examination of the penumbrae. Conclusions: The use of a VARMLC model of the micro-multileaf collimator, along with a commissioned model of the associated linear accelerator, is therefore recommended as an alternative to the development or use of in-house or third-party component modules for simulating stereotactic radiotherapy and radiosurgery treatments. Simulation parameters for the VARMLC model are provided which should allow other researchers to adapt and use this model to study clinical stereotactic radiotherapy treatments.

  7. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the in-tank fuel fire/deflageration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-09

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for In-Tank Fuel fire/Deflageration consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Tank Fuel Fire/Deflageration scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  8. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the in-tank fuel fire/deflagration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for In-Tank Fuel Fire/Deflageration consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Tank Fuel Fire/Deflageration scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  9. A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mellit, Adel; Pavan, Alessandro Massi

    2010-05-15

    Forecasting of solar irradiance is in general significant for planning the operations of power plants which convert renewable energies into electricity. In particular, the possibility to predict the solar irradiance (up to 24 h or even more) can became - with reference to the Grid Connected Photovoltaic Plants (GCPV) - fundamental in making power dispatching plans and - with reference to stand alone and hybrid systems - also a useful reference for improving the control algorithms of charge controllers. In this paper, a practical method for solar irradiance forecast using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The proposed Multilayer Perceptron MLP-model makes it possible to forecast the solar irradiance on a base of 24 h using the present values of the mean daily solar irradiance and air temperature. An experimental database of solar irradiance and air temperature data (from July 1st 2008 to May 23rd 2009 and from November 23rd 2009 to January 24th 2010) has been used. The database has been collected in Trieste (latitude 45 40'N, longitude 13 46'E), Italy. In order to check the generalization capability of the MLP-forecaster, a K-fold cross-validation was carried out. The results indicate that the proposed model performs well, while the correlation coefficient is in the range 98-99% for sunny days and 94-96% for cloudy days. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the GCPV plant installed on the rooftop of the municipality of Trieste shows the goodness of the proposed model. (author)

  10. Time-periodic solutions of the Benjamin-Ono equation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ambrose , D.M.; Wilkening, Jon

    2008-04-01

    We present a spectrally accurate numerical method for finding non-trivial time-periodic solutions of non-linear partial differential equations. The method is based on minimizing a functional (of the initial condition and the period) that is positive unless the solution is periodic, in which case it is zero. We solve an adjoint PDE to compute the gradient of this functional with respect to the initial condition. We include additional terms in the functional to specify the free parameters, which, in the case of the Benjamin-Ono equation, are the mean, a spatial phase, a temporal phase and the real part of one of the Fourier modes at t = 0. We use our method to study global paths of non-trivial time-periodic solutions connecting stationary and traveling waves of the Benjamin-Ono equation. As a starting guess for each path, we compute periodic solutions of the linearized problem by solving an infinite dimensional eigenvalue problem in closed form. We then use our numerical method to continue these solutions beyond the realm of linear theory until another traveling wave is reached (or until the solution blows up). By experimentation with data fitting, we identify the analytical form of the solutions on the path connecting the one-hump stationary solution to the two-hump traveling wave. We then derive exact formulas for these solutions by explicitly solving the system of ODE's governing the evolution of solitons using the ansatz suggested by the numerical simulations.

  11. EIS-0236-S4: Extension of Comment Period | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Extension of Comment Period EIS-0236-S4: Extension of Comment Period Complex Transformation Extension of Comment Period for the Draft Complex Transformation Supplemental...

  12. National Weatherization Assistance Program Characterization Describing the Recovery Act Period

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tonn, Bruce Edward; Rose, Erin M.; Hawkins, Beth A.

    2015-10-01

    This report characterizes the U.S. Department of Energy s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) during the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Recovery Act) period. This research was one component of the Recovery Act evaluation of WAP. The report presents the results of surveys administered to Grantees (i.e., state weatherization offices) and Subgrantees (i.e., local weatherization agencies). The report also documents the ramp up and ramp down of weatherization production and direct employment during the Recovery Act period and other challenges faced by the Grantees and Subgrantees during this period. Program operations during the Recovery Act (Program Year 2010) are compared to operations during the year previous to the Recovery Act (Program Year 2008).

  13. Some Thoughts on Stability in Nonlinear Periodic Focusing Systems

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    McMillan, E. M.

    1967-09-05

    A brief discussion is given of the long-term stability of particle motions through periodic focusing structures containing lumped nonlinear elements. A method is presented whereby one can specify the nonlinear elements in such a way as to generate a variety of structures in which the motion has long-term stability.

  14. PARC Periodical-Volume 5, Issue 4 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Periodical-Volume 5, Issue 4 April 14, 2014 PARC Periodical-Volume 5, Issue 4 View Issue

  15. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-10-03

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

  16. Total Estimated Contract Cost: Contract Option Period: Maximum Fee

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Maximum Fee Performance Period Fee Earned FY2011/2012 $4,059,840 FY2013 $2,928,000 FY2014 $3,022,789 FY2015 FY2016 Cumulative Fee $10,010,629 $19,878,019 $3,214,544 $5,254,840 $5,662,028 $1,421,695 Fee Available $4,324,912 $417,833,183 Contract Base Period: January 3, 2011 - September 2, 2016 (Extended) Fee Information Minimum Fee $0 N/A $19,878,019 Contractor: Babcock & Wilcox Conversion Services, LLC Contract Number: DE-AC30-11CC40015 Contract Type: Cost Plus Award Fee EM Contractor Fee

  17. Quasi-periodic quantum dot arrays produced by electrochemical synthesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bandyopadhyay, S.; Miller, A.E.; Yue, D.F.; Banerjee, G.; Ricker, R.E.; Jones, S.; Eastman, J.A.; Baugher, E.; Chandrasekhar, M.

    1994-06-01

    We discuss a ``gentle`` electrochemical technique for fabricating quasi-periodic quantum dot arrays. The technique exploits a self-organizing phenomenon to produce quasi-periodic arrangement of dots and provides excellent control over dot size and interdot spacing. Unlike conventional nanolithography, it does not cause radiation damage to the structures during exposure to pattern delineating beams (e-beam, ion-beam or x-ray). Moreover, it does not require harsh processing steps like reactive ion etching, offers a minimum feature size of {approximately}40 {angstrom}, allows the fabrication of structures on nonplanar surfaces (e.g. spherical or cylindrical substrates), is amenable to mass production (millions of wafers can be processed simultaneously) and is potentially orders of magnitude cheaper than conventional nanofabrication. In this paper, we describe our initial results and show the promise of this technique for low-cost and high-yield nanosynthesis.

  18. The research performed during the last granting period involved trasnscriptomic

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    research performed during the last granting period involved trasnscriptomic analysis of extracellular proteins expressed by wood-degrading fungi. Here we studied both the brown rot fungus Postia placenta and white rot fungus Phanerochaete chrysosporium. Our most recent efforts have been on the brown rot fungus. We have grown these fungi on their woody substrates and isolated the mRNA for 454 sequencing. We recognized that this approach could potentially lead to discovery of new enzymes involved

  19. MONTICELLO PROJECTS FEDERAL FACILITIES AGREEMENT REPORT Report Period: January 1-

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    PROJECTS FEDERAL FACILITIES AGREEMENT REPORT Report Period: January 1- March 31, 2006 DOE Project Coordinator: Ray Plieness HIGHLIGHTS The Federal Facilities Agreement meeting was held February 21-22 in Salt Lake City, UT. Representatives from the U.S. Depattment of Energy (DOE), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Utah Department of Environmental Quality (UDEQ), and the DOE contractor attended. The schedule of work through the end of the fiscal year was determined. MSG-OUIII The scope

  20. Enforcement Policy Statement: Compliance Period for Regional Standards

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Compliance Period for Regional Standards Applicable to Central Air Conditioners April 24, 2014 On June 27, 2011, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published in the Federal Register a direct final rule (DFR) under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), 42 U.S.C. §§ 6291-6309, which set forth amended energy conservation standards for residential furnaces, central air conditioners, and heat pumps, including regional standards for different product types in indicated States. 76 FR 37408.

  1. Some Thoughts on Stability in Nonlinear Periodic Focusing Systems [Addendum

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    McMillan, Edwin M.

    1968-03-29

    Addendum to September 5, 1967 report with the same title and with the abstract: A brief discussion is given of the long-term stability of particle motions through periodic focusing structures containing lumped nonlinear elements. A method is presented whereby one can specify the nonlinear elements in such a way as to generate a variety of structures in which the motion has long-term stability.

  2. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 5: The DOETRAN user`s manual; The DOE-2/DBEDT DSM forecasting model interface

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then process the data into the forecasting model format. As DOETRAN processes the DOE-2 data, graphs of the total electric monthly impacts for each DSM measure appear, providing the user with a visual means of inspecting DOE-2 data, as well as following program execution. DOETRAN provides three tables for each building type for the forecasting model, one for electric measures, gas measures, and basecases. The optional fourth function provided by DOETRAN is to view graphs of total electric annual impacts by measure. This last option allows a comparative view of how one measure rates against another. A section in this manual is devoted to each of the four functions mentioned above, as well as computer requirements and exiting DOETRAN.

  3. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  4. Final Report, 2011-2014. Forecasting Carbon Storage as Eastern Forests Age. Joining Experimental and Modeling Approaches at the UMBS AmeriFlux Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis, Peter; Bohrer, Gil; Gough, Christopher; Nadelhoffer, Knute

    2015-03-12

    At the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) AmeriFlux sites (US-UMB and US-UMd), long-term C cycling measurements and a novel ecosystem-scale experiment are revealing physical, biological, and ecological mechanisms driving long-term trajectories of C cycling, providing new data for improving modeling forecasts of C storage in eastern forests. Our findings provide support for previously untested hypotheses that stand-level structural and biological properties constrain long-term trajectories of C storage, and that remotely sensed canopy structural parameters can substantially improve model forecasts of forest C storage. Through the Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET), we are directly testing the hypothesis that forest C storage will increase due to increasing structural and biological complexity of the emerging tree communities. Support from this project, 2011-2014, enabled us to incorporate novel physical and ecological mechanisms into ecological, meteorological, and hydrological models to improve forecasts of future forest C storage in response to disturbance, succession, and current and long-term climate variation

  5. Beyond periodic orbits: An example in nonhydrogenic atoms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dando, P.A.; Monteiro, T.S.; Delande, D.; Taylor, K.T. (Department of Mathematics, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, Surrey, TW20 0EX (United Kingdom) Laboratoire Kastler-Brossel, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, 4 place Jussieu, F-75005 Paris (France) Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, BT7 1NN (United Kingdom))

    1995-02-13

    The spectrum of hydrogen in a magnetic field is a paradigm of quantum chaos and may be analyzed accurately by periodic-orbit-type theories. In nonhydrogenic atoms, the core induces pure quantum effects, especially additional spectral modulations, which cannot be analyzed reliably in terms of classical orbits and their stability parameters. Provided core-scattered waves are included consistently, core-scattered modulations as well as corrected amplitudes for primitive orbits are in excellent agreement with quantum results. We consider whether these systems correspond to quantum chaos.

  6. Total Estimated Contract Cost: Performance Period Total Fee Paid

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Total Fee Paid FY2008 $134,832 FY2009 $142,578 FY2010 $299,878 FY2011 $169,878 Cumulative Fee Paid $747,166 Contract Period: September 2007 - October 2012 $31,885,815 C/P/E Environmental Services, LLC DE-AM09-05SR22405/DE-AT30-07CC60011/SL14 Contractor: Contract Number: Contract Type: Cost Plus Award Fee $357,223 $597,797 $894,699 EM Contractor Fee Site: Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC) Contract Name: SLAC Environmental Remediation December 2012 $1,516,646 Fee Available $208,620 Fee

  7. DURING THIS REPORTING PERIOD, WE ISSUED 39 REPORTS; IDENTIFIED

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    39 REPORTS; IDENTIFIED $12.6 MILLION IN FUNDS PUT TO BETTER USE AND $19.3 MILLION IN QUESTIONED COSTS; OBTAINED $6.2 MILLION IN FINES, SETTLEMENTS, AND RECOVERIES, 6 CRIMINAL CONVICTIONS, 20 SUSPENSIONS AND DEBARMENTS, AND 51 CIVIL AND ADMINISTRATIVE ACTIONS; AND RECEIVED 1,679 HOTLINE CONTACTS. DURING THIS REPORTING PERIOD, WE ISSUED 39 REPORTS; IDENTIFIED $12.6 MILLION IN FUNDS PUT TO BETTER US AND $19.3 MILLION IN QUESTIONED COSTS; OBTAINED $6.2 MILLION IN FINES, SETTLEMENTS, AND RECOVERIES,

  8. Short-period pulsar oscillations following a glitch

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Van Eysden, C. A.

    2014-07-10

    Following a glitch, the crust and magnetized plasma in the outer core of a neutron star are believed to rapidly establish a state of co-rotation within a few seconds by process analogous to classical Ekman pumping. However, in ideal magnetohydrodynamics, a final state of co-rotation is inconsistent with conservation of energy of the system. We demonstrate that, after the Ekman-like spin up is completed, magneto-inertial waves continue to propagate throughout the star, exciting torsional oscillations in the crust and plasma. The crust oscillation is irregular and quasi-periodic, with a dominant frequency of the order of seconds. Crust oscillations commence after an Alfvn crossing time, approximately half a minute at the magnetic pole, and are subsequently damped by the electron viscosity over approximately an hour. In rapidly rotating stars, the magneto-inertial spectrum in the core approaches a continuum, and crust oscillations are damped by resonant absorption analogous to quasi-periodic oscillations in magnetars. The oscillations predicted are unlikely to be observed in timing data from existing radio telescopes, but may be visible to next generation telescope arrays.

  9. PULSATION PERIOD VARIATIONS IN THE RRc LYRAE STAR KIC 5520878

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hippke, Michael; Learned, John G.; Zee, A.; Edmondson, William H.; Lindner, John F.; Kia, Behnam; Ditto, William L.; Stevens, Ian R. E-mail: jgl@phys.hawaii.edu E-mail: w.h.edmondson@bham.ac.uk E-mail: wditto@hawaii.edu E-mail: irs@star.sr.bham.ac.uk

    2015-01-01

    Learned et al. proposed that a sufficiently advanced extra-terrestrial civilization may tickle Cepheid and RR Lyrae variable stars with a neutrino beam at the right time, thus causing them to trigger early and jogging the otherwise very regular phase of their expansion and contraction. This would turn these stars into beacons to transmit information throughout the galaxy and beyond. The idea is to search for signs of phase modulation (in the regime of short pulse duration) and patterns, which could be indicative of intentional, omnidirectional signaling. We have performed such a search among variable stars using photometric data from the Kepler space telescope. In the RRc Lyrae star KIC 5520878, we have found two such regimes of long and short pulse durations. The sequence of period lengths, expressed as time series data, is strongly autocorrelated, with correlation coefficients of prime numbers being significantly higher (p = 99.8%). Our analysis of this candidate star shows that the prime number oddity originates from two simultaneous pulsation periods and is likely of natural origin. Simple physical models elucidate the frequency content and asymmetries of the KIC 5520878 light curve. Despite this SETI null result, we encourage testing of other archival and future time-series photometry for signs of modulated stars. This can be done as a by-product to the standard analysis, and can even be partly automated.

  10. Summary of available waste forecast data for the Environmental Restoration Program at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    This report identifies patterns of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Environmental Restoration (ER) waste generation that are predicted by the current ER Waste Generation Forecast data base. It compares the waste volumes to be generated with the waste management capabilities of current and proposed treatment, storage, or disposal (TSD) facilities. The scope of this report is limited to wastes generated during activities funded by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environmental Restoration (EM-40) and excludes wastes from the decontamination and decommissioning of facilities. Significant quantities of these wastes are expected to be generated during ER activities. This report has been developed as a management tool supporting communication and coordination of waste management activities at ORNL. It summarizes the available data for waste that will be generated as a result of remediation activities under the direction of the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office and identifies areas requiring continued waste management planning and coordination. Based on the available data, it is evident that most remedial action wastes leaving the area of contamination can be managed adequately with existing and planned ORR waste management facilities if attention is given to waste generation scheduling and the physical limitations of particular TSD facilities. Limited use of off-site commercial TSD facilities is anticipated, provided the affected waste streams can be shown to satisfy the requirements of the performance objective for certification of non-radioactive hazardous waste and the waste acceptance criteria of the off-site facilities. Ongoing waste characterization will be required to determine the most appropriate TSD facility for each waste stream.

  11. Summary Notes from 28 May 2008 Generic Technical Issue Discussion on Estimating Waste Inventory and Waste Tank Characterization

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    8, 2008 Page 1 of 8 Summary Notes from 28 May 2008 Generic Technical Issue Discussion on Estimating Waste Inventory and Waste Tank Characterization Attendees: Representatives from Department of Energy-Headquarters (DOE-HQ) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff (NRC) met at the DOE offices in Germantown, Maryland on 28 May 2008. Representatives from Department of Energy- Savannah River (DOE-SR), Department of Energy-Richland (DOE-RL), and Department of Energy-River Protection (DOE-ORP)

  12. Periodic local MP2 method employing orbital specific virtuals

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Usvyat, Denis Schütz, Martin; Maschio, Lorenzo

    2015-09-14

    We introduce orbital specific virtuals (OSVs) to represent the truncated pair-specific virtual space in periodic local Møller-Plesset perturbation theory of second order (LMP2). The OSVs are constructed by diagonalization of the LMP2 amplitude matrices which correspond to diagonal Wannier-function (WF) pairs. Only a subset of these OSVs is adopted for the subsequent OSV-LMP2 calculation, namely, those with largest contribution to the diagonal pair correlation energy and with the accumulated value of these contributions reaching a certain accuracy. The virtual space for a general (non diagonal) pair is spanned by the union of the two OSV sets related to the individual WFs of the pair. In the periodic LMP2 method, the diagonal LMP2 amplitude matrices needed for the construction of the OSVs are calculated in the basis of projected atomic orbitals (PAOs), employing very large PAO domains. It turns out that the OSVs are excellent to describe short range correlation, yet less appropriate for long range van der Waals correlation. In order to compensate for this bias towards short range correlation, we augment the virtual space spanned by the OSVs by the most diffuse PAOs of the corresponding minimal PAO domain. The Fock and overlap matrices in OSV basis are constructed in the reciprocal space. The 4-index electron repulsion integrals are calculated by local density fitting and, for distant pairs, via multipole approximation. New procedures for determining the fit-domains and the distant-pair lists, leading to higher efficiency in the 4-index integral evaluation, have been implemented. Generally, and in contrast to our previous PAO based periodic LMP2 method, the OSV-LMP2 method does not require anymore great care in the specification of the individual domains (to get a balanced description when calculating energy differences) and is in that sense a black box procedure. Discontinuities in potential energy surfaces, which may occur for PAO-based calculations if one is not careful, virtually disappear for OSV-LMP2. Moreover, due to much increased compactness of the pair-specific virtual spaces, the OSV-LMP2 calculations are faster and require much less memory than PAO-LMP2 calculations, despite the noticeable overhead of the initial OSV construction procedure.

  13. Chaotic dynamics in a periodically driven spin-1 condensate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheng Jing [Department of Physics, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640 (China); Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics China, CAS, Beijing 100190 (China)

    2010-02-15

    We use periodically modulated magnetic fields to drive spin-1 Bose-Einstein condensates (BECs) and study the corresponding spin-mixing dynamics. Due to the time-dependent driving, this system permits chaotic dynamics depending on the drive parameters, which could not occur in previous studies. From the investigation of the Poincare sections, we find there exist complex trajectories in the phase space, leading to very complicated structures of the phase space with mixed regular and chaotic regions. By calculating the quasienergy levels of the corresponding Floquet operators, the signatures of quantum chaos are also found in this system. The level spacing distribution is very close to the Poisson distribution or Wigner distribution when the corresponding classical dynamics is regular or chaotic.

  14. Transverse commensurability effect for vortices on periodic pinning arrays

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reichhardt, Charles; Reichhardt, Cynthia J

    2008-01-01

    Using computer simulations, we demonstrate a type of commensurability that occurs for vortices moving longitudinally through periodic pinning arrays in the presence of an additional transverse driving force. As a function of vortex density, there is a series of broad maxima in the transverse critical depinning force that do not fall at the matching fields where the number of vortices equals an integer multiple of the number of pinning sites. The commensurability effects are associated with dynamical states in which evenly spaced structures consisting of one or more moving rows of vortices form between rows of pinning sites. Remarkably, the critical transverse depinning force can be more than an order of magnitude larger than the longitudinal depinning force.

  15. Total Estimated Contract Cost: Contract Option Period: Performance

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Performance Period Fee Earned FY2000 thru 2008 $102,622,325 FY2009 $12,259,719 FY2010 $35,789,418 FY2011 $24,126,240 FY2012 $24,995,209 FY2013 $6,340,762 FY2014 $16,285,867 FY2015 $35,931,000 $8,595,000 FY2016 $25,181,000 FY2017 $24,849,000 FY2018 $99,100,000 FY2019 $129,700,000 Cumulative Fee $231,014,540 $599,588,540 $12,259,719 $35,789,418 $38,554,240 $41,785,209 $16,698,762 $37,117,867 Maximum Fee $599,588,540 Fee Available $102,622,325 $10,868,785,789 Completion Contract: December 11, 2000

  16. Instrumentation to Monitor Transient Developing Periodic Flow in Newtonian Slurries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bamberger, Judith A.; Enderlin, Carl W.

    2014-08-03

    This paper describes measurement techniques developed and applied to characterize solids mobilization and mixing of Newtonian slurries that are subjected to transient, periodic, developing flows. Metrics to characterize mobilization and mixing are the just suspended velocity (UJS) and the cloud height (HC). Two ultrasonic instruments to characterize pulse jet mixing of slurries were developed and deployed to measure related metrics: the thickness of the settled bed (used to determine mobilization) and the concentration within the cloud as a function of elevation [C(Z)]. A second method, continuous sample extraction, characterization, and reinsertion was successfully used to measure average density and characterize the concentration within the cloud. Testing focused on mixing vessels using intermitent jet mixers oriented vertically downward. Descriptions of the instruments and instrument performance are presented. These techniques were an effective approach to characterize mixing phenomena, determine mixing energy required to fully mobilize vessel contents, and to determine mixing times for process evaluation.

  17. POST-CLOSURE INSPECTION REPORT FOR CORRECTIVE ACTION UNIT 333: U-3auS DISPOSAL SITE, NEVADA TEST SITE, NEVADA FOR THE PERIOD JULY 2005-JUNE 2006

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2006-08-01

    Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 333, U-3auS Disposal Site, is a closed construction landfill located in Area 3 of the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The closure of this site was approved by the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP) in a letter to the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Operations Office (NNSA/NV) dated June 27, 2001. Post-closure requirements are described in a letter from NNSA/NV to NDEP dated October 9, 2001, and were approved by the NDEP in a letter dated November 5, 2001. This report covers the period July 2005 through June 2006 and consists of copies of the inspection checklist and field notes, repair records (if any), photographs, and recommendations and conclusions.

  18. IUPAC Periodic Table of Isotopes for the Educational Community

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Holden N. E.; Holden,N.E.; Coplen,T.B.

    2012-07-15

    John Dalton first proposed the concept of atomic weights of the elements in the first decade of the nineteenth century. These atomic weights of the chemical elements were thought of as constants of nature, similar to the speed of light. Dmitri Mendeleev arranged the atomic weights of the elements in ascending order of value and used the systematic variation of their chemical properties to produce his Periodic Table of the Elements in 1869. Measurement of atomic weight values became an important chemical activity for a century and a half. Theodore Richards received a Noble Prize for his work in this area. In 1913, Fredrick Soddy found a species of radium, which had an atomic weight value of 228, compared to the familiar radium gas value of 226. Soddy coined the term 'isotope' (Greek for 'in the same place') to account for this second atomic weight value in the radium position of the Periodic Table. Both of these isotopes of radium are radioactive. Radioactive isotopes are energetically unstable and will decay (disintegrate) over time. The time it takes for one half of a sample of a given radioactive isotope to decay is the half-life of that isotope. In addition to having different atomic weight values, radium-226 and radium-228 also have different half-life values. Around the same time as Soddy's work, J.J. Thomson (discoverer of the electron) identified two stable (non-radioactive) isotopes of the same element, neon. Over the next 40 years, the majority of the known chemical elements were found to have two or more stable (or long-lived radioactive isotopes that contribute significantly to the determination of the atomic weights of the elements).

  19. Physics Division progress report for period ending September 30, 1984

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Livingston, A.B. (ed.)

    1985-01-01

    The research activities of the Division are centered primarily in three areas: experimental nuclear physics, experimental atomic physics, and theoretical nuclear and atomic physics. The largest of these efforts, experimental nuclear physics, is dominated by the heavy ion research program. A major responsibility under this program is the operation of the Holifield Heavy Ion Research Facility as a national user facility. During the period of this report, the facility has begun routine operation for the experimental program. The experimental atomic physics program has two components: the accelerator-based studies of basic collisional phenomena and the studies in support of the controlled fusion program. Also associated with the fusion-related studies are a plasma diagnostics program and the operation of an atomic physics data center. The theoretical physics program, both nuclear and atomic, is covered. This program has benefited this year from the success of the VAX-AP computer system and from the increase in manpower provided by the ORNL/University of Tennessee Distinguished Scientist Program. Smaller programs in applications and high-energy physics are summarized. During the period of this report, we continued to explore possible future extensions of the Holifield Facility. We retain a strong interest in a relativistic heavy-ion collider in the 10 x 10 GeV/nuclear energy range. The ideas for such a facility, described in last year's report, have been modified to utilize the HHIRF 25 MV tandem accelerator as the first stage. Finally, the report concludes with some general information on publications, Division activities, and personnel changes.

  20. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod1 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 1 Pages using the property "OpenEIUtilityRateDemandChargePeriod1"...