National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for forecast period based

  1. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  2. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  3. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  4. Base Oil Market Segment Forecasts up to 2020,Research Reports...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Research Home > Groups > Future of Condition Monitoring for Wind Turbines Wayne31jan's picture Submitted by Wayne31jan(150) Contributor 11 June, 2015 - 03:19 Base Oil...

  5. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. ... means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals. ...

  6. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu

  7. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  8. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  9. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  10. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID tomore » build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

  11. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

  12. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  13. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,153 3,143 -0.3% Price (centskWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.96 ...

  14. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  15. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  16. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  17. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  18. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  19. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  20. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  1. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  2. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. December 22, 2014 Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505) 667-0471 Email "A global disease-forecasting system will improve

  3. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  4. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  5. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  6. Femtosecond laser-induced periodic surface structure on the Ti-based nanolayered thin films

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Petrovi?, Suzana M.; Gakovi?, B.; Peruko, D.; Stratakis, E.; Department of Materials Science and Technology, University of Crete, 710 03 Heraklion, Crete ; Bogdanovi?-Radovi?, I.; ?ekada, M.; Fotakis, C.; Department of Physics, University of Crete, 714 09 Heraklion, Crete ; Jelenkovi?, B.

    2013-12-21

    Laser-induced periodic surface structures (LIPSSs) and chemical composition changes of Ti-based nanolayered thin films (Al/Ti, Ni/Ti) after femtosecond (fs) laser pulses action were studied. Irradiation is performed using linearly polarized Ti:Sapphire fs laser pulses of 40 fs pulse duration and 800 nm wavelength. The low spatial frequency LIPSS (LSFL), oriented perpendicular to the laser polarization with periods slightly lower than the irradiation wavelength, was typically formed at elevated laser fluences. On the contrary, high spatial frequency LIPSS (HSFL) with uniform period of 155 nm, parallel to the laser light polarization, appeared at low laser fluences, as well as in the wings of the Gaussian laser beam distribution for higher used fluence. LSFL formation was associated with the material ablation process and accompanied by the intense formation of nanoparticles, especially in the Ni/Ti system. The composition changes at the surface of both multilayer systems in the LSFL area indicated the intermixing between layers and the substrate. Concentration and distribution of all constitutive elements in the irradiated area with formed HSFLs were almost unchanged.

  7. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  8. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  9. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOAA Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007 Forecasting Challenge While weather experiments in the heart of Tornado Alley typically focus on severe weather, the CLASIC and CHAPS programs will have different emphases. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Norman, Okla. will provide weather forecasting support to these two Department of Energy experiments based in the state. Forecasting support for meteorological research field programs usually

  10. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  11. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during

  12. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  13. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  14. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  15. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (stochastic) model with the weather forecast model (deterministic) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  16. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  17. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  18. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  19. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  20. Tidally distorted exoplanets: Density corrections for short-period hot-Jupiters based solely on observable parameters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burton, J. R.; Watson, C. A.; Fitzsimmons, A.; Moulds, V.; Pollacco, D.; Wheatley, P. J.; Littlefair, S. P.

    2014-07-10

    The close proximity of short-period hot-Jupiters to their parent star means they are subject to extreme tidal forces. This has a profound effect on their structure and, as a result, density measurements that assume that the planet is spherical can be incorrect. We have simulated the tidally distorted surface for 34 known short-period hot-Jupiters, assuming surfaces of constant gravitational equipotential for the planet, and the resulting densities have been calculated based only on observed parameters of the exoplanet systems. Comparing these results to the density values, assuming the planets are spherical, shows that there is an appreciable change in the measured density for planets with very short periods (typically less than two days). For one of the shortest-period systems, WASP-19b, we determine a decrease in bulk density of 12% from the spherical case and, for the majority of systems in this study, this value is in the range of 1%-5%. On the other hand, we also find cases where the distortion is negligible (relative to the measurement errors on the planetary parameters) even in the cases of some very short period systems, depending on the mass ratio and planetary radius. For high-density gas planets requiring apparently anomalously large core masses, density corrections due to tidal deformation could become important for the shortest-period systems.

  1. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies ...

  2. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  3. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  4. Reliability of unstable periodic orbit based control strategies in biological systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mishra, Nagender; Singh, Harinder P.; Hasse, Maria; Biswal, B.

    2015-04-15

    Presence of recurrent and statistically significant unstable periodic orbits (UPOs) in time series obtained from biological systems is now routinely used as evidence for low dimensional chaos. Extracting accurate dynamical information from the detected UPO trajectories is vital for successful control strategies that either aim to stabilize the system near the fixed point or steer the system away from the periodic orbits. A hybrid UPO detection method from return maps that combines topological recurrence criterion, matrix fit algorithm, and stringent criterion for fixed point location gives accurate and statistically significant UPOs even in the presence of significant noise. Geometry of the return map, frequency of UPOs visiting the same trajectory, length of the data set, strength of the noise, and degree of nonstationarity affect the efficacy of the proposed method. Results suggest that establishing determinism from unambiguous UPO detection is often possible in short data sets with significant noise, but derived dynamical properties are rarely accurate and adequate for controlling the dynamics around these UPOs. A repeat chaos control experiment on epileptic hippocampal slices through more stringent control strategy and adaptive UPO tracking is reinterpreted in this context through simulation of similar control experiments on an analogous but stochastic computer model of epileptic brain slices. Reproduction of equivalent results suggests that far more stringent criteria are needed for linking apparent success of control in such experiments with possible determinism in the underlying dynamics.

  5. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  6. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  7. Direct periodic patterning of GaN-based light-emitting diodes by three-beam interference laser ablation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Jeomoh; Ji, Mi-Hee; Detchprohm, Theeradetch; Yuan, Dajun; Guo, Rui; Liu, Jianping; Asadirad, Mojtaba; Kwon, Min-Ki; Dupuis, Russell D.; Das, Suman; Ryou, Jae-Hyun

    2014-04-07

    We report on the direct patterning of two-dimensional periodic structures in GaN-based light-emitting diodes (LEDs) through laser interference ablation for the fast and reliable fabrication of periodic micro- and nano-structures aimed at enhancing light output. Holes arranged in a two-dimensional hexagonal lattice array having an opening size of 500?nm, depth of 50?nm, and a periodicity of 1??m were directly formed by three-beam laser interference without photolithography or electron-beam lithography processes. The laser-patterned LEDs exhibit an enhancement in light output power of 20% compared to conventional LEDs having a flat top surface without degradation of electrical and optical properties of the top p-GaN layer and the active region, respectively.

  8. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  9. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement ...

  10. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  11. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. File Acquisition-Forecast-2016-05-06.xlsx More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Small Business Program Manager Directory

  12. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  13. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  14. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  15. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  16. Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ghan, Steven J.

    2009-02-14

    Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is a major anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. However, it is uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and investigated the resulting impact on snowpack and the surface water budget in the western United States. A yearlong simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine an annual budget of soot deposition, followed by two regional climate simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the net solar radiation flux at the surface during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, reduce snow water equivalent amount, and lead to reduced snow accumulation and less spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow covered regions. Our simulations indicate that the change of maximum snow albedo induced by soot on snow contributes to 60% of the net albedo reduction over the central Rockies. Snowpack reduction accounts for the additional 40%.

  17. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report PDF icon Wind Forecast Improvement Project ...

  18. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  19. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  20. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  1. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  2. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  3. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research supports industry, government, and academia by providing renewable energy resource measurements, models, maps, and support services. These resources are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research: Capabilities Facilities Research staff Data and resources. Resource assessment and forecasting research is primarily performed at

  4. Summary of Time Period-Based and Other Approximation Methods for Determining the Capacity Value of Wind and Solar in the United States: September 2010 - February 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2012-03-01

    This paper updates previous work that describes time period-based and other approximation methods for estimating the capacity value of wind power and extends it to include solar power. The paper summarizes various methods presented in utility integrated resource plans, regional transmission organization methodologies, regional stakeholder initiatives, regulatory proceedings, and academic and industry studies. Time period-based approximation methods typically measure the contribution of a wind or solar plant at the time of system peak - sometimes over a period of months or the average of multiple years.

  5. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  6. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  7. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  8. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  9. Energy consumption and expenditure projections by population group on the basis of the annual energy outlook 1999 forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poyer, D.A.; Balsley, J.H.

    2000-01-07

    This report presents an analysis of the relative impact of the base-case scenario used in Annual Energy Outlook 1999 on different population groups. Projections of energy consumption and expenditures, as well as energy expenditure as a share of income, from 1996 to 2020 are given. The projected consumption of electricty, natural gas, distillate fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas during this period is also reported for each population group. In addition, this report compares the findings of the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 report with the 1998 report. Changes in certain indicators and information affect energy use forecasts, and these effects are analyzed and discussed.

  10. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  11. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  12. Solar Forecast Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    NOAA also will provide advanced satellite products. INNOVATIONS NOAA is providing numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling with new information that will help solar forecasts. ...

  13. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Management Tools and Best Practices Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices Development ...

  14. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  15. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  16. Rapid estimation of 4DCT motion-artifact severity based on 1D breathing-surrogate periodicity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Guang Caraveo, Marshall; Wei, Jie; Rimner, Andreas; Wu, Abraham J.; Goodman, Karyn A.; Yorke, Ellen

    2014-11-01

    Purpose: Motion artifacts are common in patient four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) images, leading to an ill-defined tumor volume with large variations for radiotherapy treatment and a poor foundation with low imaging fidelity for studying respiratory motion. The authors developed a method to estimate 4DCT image quality by establishing a correlation between the severity of motion artifacts in 4DCT images and the periodicity of the corresponding 1D respiratory waveform (1DRW) used for phase binning in 4DCT reconstruction. Methods: Discrete Fourier transformation (DFT) was applied to analyze 1DRW periodicity. The breathing periodicity index (BPI) was defined as the sum of the largest five Fourier coefficients, ranging from 0 to 1. Distortional motion artifacts (excluding blurring) of cine-scan 4DCT at the junctions of adjacent couch positions around the diaphragm were classified in three categories: incomplete, overlapping, and duplicate anatomies. To quantify these artifacts, discontinuity of the diaphragm at the junctions was measured in distance and averaged along six directions in three orthogonal views. Artifacts per junction (APJ) across the entire diaphragm were calculated in each breathing phase and phase-averaged APJ{sup }, defined as motion-artifact severity (MAS), was obtained for each patient. To make MAS independent of patient-specific motion amplitude, two new MAS quantities were defined: MAS{sup D} is normalized to the maximum diaphragmatic displacement and MAS{sup V} is normalized to the mean diaphragmatic velocity (the breathing period was obtained from DFT analysis of 1DRW). Twenty-six patients free-breathing 4DCT images and corresponding 1DRW data were studied. Results: Higher APJ values were found around midventilation and full inhalation while the lowest APJ values were around full exhalation. The distribution of MAS is close to Poisson distribution with a mean of 2.2 mm. The BPI among the 26 patients was calculated with a value ranging from 0.25 to 0.93. The DFT calculation was within 3 s per 1DRW. Correlations were found between 1DRW periodicity and 4DCT artifact severity: ?0.71 for MAS{sup D} and ?0.73 for MAS{sup V}. A BPI greater than 0.85 in a 1DRW suggests minimal motion artifacts in the corresponding 4DCT images. Conclusions: The breathing periodicity index and motion-artifact severity index are introduced to assess the relationship between 1DRW and 4DCT. A correlation between 1DRW periodicity and 4DCT artifact severity has been established. The 1DRW periodicity provides a rapid means to estimate 4DCT image quality. The rapid 1DRW analysis and the correlative relationship can be applied prospectively to identify irregular breathers as candidates for breath coaching prior to 4DCT scan and retrospectively to select high-quality 4DCT images for clinical motion-management research.

  17. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  18. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  19. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  20. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ... Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ...

  1. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio ...

  2. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar ...

  3. Soft-spring wall based non-periodic boundary conditions for non-equilibrium molecular dynamics of dense fluids

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghatage, Dhairyashil; Tomar, Gaurav Shukla, Ratnesh K.

    2015-03-28

    Non-equilibrium molecular dynamics (MD) simulations require imposition of non-periodic boundary conditions (NPBCs) that seamlessly account for the effect of the truncated bulk region on the simulated MD region. Standard implementation of specular boundary conditions in such simulations results in spurious density and force fluctuations near the domain boundary and is therefore inappropriate for coupled atomistic-continuum calculations. In this work, we present a novel NPBC model that relies on boundary atoms attached to a simple cubic lattice with soft springs to account for interactions from particles which would have been present in an untruncated full domain treatment. We show that the proposed model suppresses the unphysical fluctuations in the density to less than 1% of the mean while simultaneously eliminating spurious oscillations in both mean and boundary forces. The model allows for an effective coupling of atomistic and continuum solvers as demonstrated through multiscale simulation of boundary driven singular flow in a cavity. The geometric flexibility of the model enables straightforward extension to nonplanar complex domains without any adverse effects on dynamic properties such as the diffusion coefficient.

  4. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  5. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  6. Thermoelectric infrared microsensors based on a periodically suspended thermopile integrating nanostructured Ge/SiGe quantum dots superlattice

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ziouche, K. E-mail: Zahia.bougrioua@iemn.univ-lille1.fr; Bougrioua, Z. E-mail: Zahia.bougrioua@iemn.univ-lille1.fr; Lejeune, P.; Lasri, T.; Leclercq, D.; Savelli, G.; Hauser, D.; Michon, P.-M.

    2014-07-28

    This paper presents an original integration of polycrystalline SiGe-based quantum dots superlattices (QDSL) into Thermoelectric (TE) planar infrared microsensors (?SIR) fabricated using a CMOS technology. The nanostructuration in QDSL results into a considerably reduced thermal conductivity by a factor up to 10 compared to the one of standard polysilicon layers that are usually used for IR sensor applications. A presentation of several TE layers, QDSL and polysilicon, is given before to describe the fabrication of the thermopile-based sensors. The theoretical values of the sensitivity to irradiance of ?SIR can be predicted thanks to an analytical model. These findings are used to interpret the experimental measurements versus the nature of the TE layer exploited in the devices. The use of nanostructured QDSL as the main material in ?SIR thermopile has brought a sensitivity improvement of about 28% consistent with theoretical predictions. The impact of QDSL low thermal conductivity is damped by the contribution of the thermal conductivity of all the other sub-layers that build up the device.

  7. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  8. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  9. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  10. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  11. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  12. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Research Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Research Staff NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research staff provides expertise in renewable energy measurement and instrumentation through NREL's Power Systems Engineering Center. Photo not available Linda Crow - Administrative Associate B.S. Environmental Studies, The Evergreen State College Linda currently works for the Resource Assessment and Forecasting group as their administrative support. She has worked with scientists at the Office of Science at the Air Force Academy and at

  13. A monolithic white LED with an active region based on InGaN QWs separated by short-period InGaN/GaN superlattices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tsatsulnikov, A. F. Lundin, W. V.; Sakharov, A. V.; Zavarin, E. E.; Usov, S. O.; Nikolaev, A. E.; Kryzhanovskaya, N. V.; Synitsin, M. A.; Sizov, V. S.; Zakgeim, A. L.; Mizerov, M. N.

    2010-06-15

    A new approach to development of effective monolithic white-light emitters is described based on using a short-period InGaN/GaN superlattice as a barrier layer in the active region of LED structures between InGaN quantum wells emitting in the blue and yellow-green spectral ranges. The optical properties of structures of this kind have been studied, and it is demonstrated that the use of such a superlattice makes it possible to obtain effective emission from the active region.

  14. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  15. Kinetic description of intense nonneutral beam propagation through a periodic solenoidal focusing field based on the nonlinear Vlasov-Maxwell equations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davidson, R.C.; Chen, C.

    1997-08-01

    A kinetic description of intense nonneutral beam propagation through a periodic solenoidal focusing field B{sup sol}({rvec x}) is developed. The analysis is carried out for a thin beam with characteristic beam radius r{sub b} {much_lt} S, and directed axial momentum {gamma}{sub b}m{beta}{sub b}c (in the z-direction) large compared with the transverse momentum and axial momentum spread of the beam particles. Making use of the nonlinear Vlasov-Maxwell equations for general distribution function f{sub b}({rvec x},{rvec p},t) and self-consistent electrostatic field consistent with the thin-beam approximation, the kinetic model is used to investigate detailed beam equilibrium properties for a variety of distribution functions. Examples are presented both for the case of a uniform solenoidal focusing field B{sub z}(z) = B{sub 0} = const. and for the case of a periodic solenoidal focusing field B{sub z}(z + S) = B{sub z}(z). The nonlinear Vlasov-Maxwell equations are simplified in the thin-beam approximation, and an alternative Hamiltonian formulation is developed that is particularly well-suited to intense beam propagation in periodic focusing systems. Based on the present analysis, the Vlasov-Maxwell description of intense nonneutral beam propagation through a periodic solenoidal focusing field {rvec B}{sup sol}({rvec x}) is found to be remarkably tractable and rich in physics content. The Vlasov-Maxwell formalism developed here can be extended in a straightforward manner to investigate detailed stability behavior for perturbations about specific choices of beam equilibria.

  16. Optimized periodic verification testing blended risk and performance-based MOV inservice test program an application of ASME code case OMN-1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sellers, C.; Fleming, K.; Bidwell, D.; Forbes, P.

    1996-12-01

    This paper presents an application of ASME Code Case OMN-1 to the GL 89-10 Program at the South Texas Project Electric Generating Station (STPEGS). Code Case OMN-1 provides guidance for a performance-based MOV inservice test program that can be used for periodic verification testing and allows consideration of risk insights. Blended probabilistic and deterministic evaluation techniques were used to establish inservice test strategies including both test methods and test frequency. Described in the paper are the methods and criteria for establishing MOV safety significance based on the STPEGS probabilistic safety assessment, deterministic considerations of MOV performance characteristics and performance margins, the expert panel evaluation process, and the development of inservice test strategies. Test strategies include a mix of dynamic and static testing as well as MOV exercising.

  17. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  18. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  19. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  20. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  1. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  2. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  3. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  4. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  5. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  6. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of

  7. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  8. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  9. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Preprint Jie Zhang 1 , Bri-Mathias Hodge 1 , Siyuan Lu 2 , Hendrik F. Hamann 2 , Brad Lehman 3 , Joseph Simmons 4 , Edwin Campos 5 , and Venkat Banunarayanan 6 1 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 IBM TJ Watson Research Center 3 Northeastern University 4 University of Arizona 5 Argonne National Laboratory 6 U.S. Department of Energy Presented at the IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting Denver,

  10. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  11. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models includes the characterization of patient-specific response with implications for treatment management and research study design.

  12. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  13. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would

  14. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. PDF icon Report of the External Peer Review Panel More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  15. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modelling Approach (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the

  16. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Technical Report: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf]

  17. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability | Department of Energy Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability This document is the notice of data availability for Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types. PDF icon

  18. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, ...

  19. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    These projects aim to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting that could increase penetration of solar power by enabling more certainty in power prediction from solar power ...

  20. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates ...

  1. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  2. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  3. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  4. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  5. Period meter for reactors

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Rusch, Gordon K.

    1976-01-06

    An improved log N amplifier type nuclear reactor period meter with reduced probability for noise-induced scrams is provided. With the reactor at low power levels a sampling circuit is provided to determine the reactor period by measuring the finite change in the amplitude of the log N amplifier output signal for a predetermined time period, while at high power levels, differentiation of the log N amplifier output signal provides an additional measure of the reactor period.

  6. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  7. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  8. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  9. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  10. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  11. Scoping Period Closed

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The environmental impact statement (EIS) scoping period has ended. DOE is preparing a Draft EIS that will analyze and compare the potential environmental impacts of various alternative approaches...

  12. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  13. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  14. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  15. Genealogy of periodic trajectories

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    de Adguiar, M.A.M.; Maldta, C.P.; de Passos, E.J.V.

    1986-05-20

    The periodic solutions of non-integrable classical Hamiltonian systems with two degrees of freedom are numerically investigated. Curves of periodic families are given in plots of energy vs. period. Results are presented for this Hamiltonian: H = 1/2(p/sub x//sup 2/ + p/sub y//sup 2/) + 1/2 x/sup 2/ + 3/2 y/sup 2/ - x/sup 2/y + 1/12 x/sup 4/. Properties of the families of curves are pointed out. (LEW)

  16. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  17. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  18. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  19. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  20. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  1. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR...

  2. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  3. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  4. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average 2.21 per gallon this summer. While that's 17 ...

  5. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  6. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    1) To provide profiles of the horizontal wind to be used to test and validate short-term cloud advection forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical ...

  7. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  8. Forecasting the oil-gasoline price relationship: should we care...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    (2007, EE) obtain similar results on a panel of 15 OECD countries, with annual data ... Results Point forecasts of the N.Y. gasoline price 26 Panel (a): daily data Model MSFE ...

  9. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the ... (RIT) that enables grid operators to use wind energy more cost-effectively to serve ...

  10. Comment Period Closed Explained

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The public comment period on the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) has ended, and DOE is preparing a Final EIS. The Final EIS will consider and respond to all timely public comments on the...

  11. Holding Period Complete

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS), and the 30-day waiting period has ended. DOE is preparing a Record of Decision to announce and explain its chosen project alternative...

  12. Scoping Period Open

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published in the Federal Register a Notice of Intent to prepare an environmental impact statement (EIS), and the scoping period is open for public comment for at least 30 days. DOE requests...

  13. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Chesapeake Bay (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters

  14. Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Frequentist and Bayesian analyses (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological

  15. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  16. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Laboratory (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, therefore, the amount and stability of the energy output from the system, clouds represent the greatest source of short-term (i.e., scale of minutes to

  17. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  18. Total Estimated Contract Price: Contract Option Periods: Performance

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Price: Contract Option Periods: Performance Period Fee Earned Base Period "A" $0 Base Period "B" Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Cumulative Fee $0 $855,207 $142,771 $171,325 $175,563 $180,237 $185,312 Fee Available $44,562,457 Base Contract Period: November 21, 2016 to September 20, 2018 Fee Information Option Period 1 : September 21, 2018 to September 20, 2019 Option Period 2: September 21, 2019 to September 20, 2020 Option Period 3: September 21, 2020 to September 20, 2021

  19. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  20. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  1. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  2. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  3. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  4. Do triatomic molecules echo atomic periodicity?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hefferlin, R. Barrow, J.

    2015-03-30

    Demonstrations of periodicity among triatomic-molecular spectroscopic constants underscore the role of the periodic law as a foundation of chemistry. The objective of this work is to prepare for another test using vibration frequencies ?{sub 1} of free, ground-state, main-group triatomic molecules. Using data from four data bases and from computation, we have collected ?{sub 1} data for molecules formed from second period atoms.

  5. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  6. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  7. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  8. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  9. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  10. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  11. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting UCAR logo2.jpg The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research. APPROACH UCAR value chain.png The team will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through

  12. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Types | Department of Energy Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types More Documents & Publications Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability CX-100584 Categorical Exclusion Determination ISSUANCE

  13. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  14. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  15. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  16. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  17. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  18. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  19. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  20. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  1. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  2. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  3. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the flying brick technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  4. Ultraviolet GaN photodetectors on Si via oxide buffer heterostructures with integrated short period oxide-based distributed Bragg reflectors and leakage suppressing metal-oxide-semiconductor contacts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Szyszka, A. E-mail: adam.szyszka@pwr.wroc.pl; Haeberlen, M.; Storck, P.; Thapa, S. B.; Schroeder, T.

    2014-08-28

    Based on a novel double step oxide buffer heterostructure approach for GaN integration on Si, we present an optimized Metal-Semiconductor-Metal (MSM)-based Ultraviolet (UV) GaN photodetector system with integrated short-period (oxide/Si) Distributed Bragg Reflector (DBR) and leakage suppressing Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor (MOS) electrode contacts. In terms of structural properties, it is demonstrated by in-situ reflection high energy electron diffraction and transmission electron microscopy-energy dispersive x-ray studies that the DBR heterostructure layers grow with high thickness homogeneity and sharp interface structures sufficient for UV applications; only minor Si diffusion into the Y{sub 2}O{sub 3} films is detected under the applied thermal growth budget. As revealed by comparative high resolution x-ray diffraction studies on GaN/oxide buffer/Si systems with and without DBR systems, the final GaN layer structure quality is not significantly influenced by the growth of the integrated DBR heterostructure. In terms of optoelectronic properties, it is demonstrated thatwith respect to the basic GaN/oxide/Si system without DBRthe insertion of (a) the DBR heterostructures and (b) dark current suppressing MOS contacts enhances the photoresponsivity below the GaN band-gap related UV cut-off energy by almost up to two orders of magnitude. Given the in-situ oxide passivation capability of grown GaN surfaces and the one order of magnitude lower number of superlattice layers in case of higher refractive index contrast (oxide/Si) systems with respect to classical III-N DBR superlattices, virtual GaN substrates on Si via functional oxide buffer systems are thus a promising robust approach for future GaN-based UV detector technologies.

  5. Final Technical Report for the Period September 2002 through September 2005; H2-MHR Pre-Conceptual Design Report: SI-Based Plant; H2-MHR Pre-Conceptual Design Report: HTE-Based Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    M. Richards; A. Shenoy; L. Brown; R. Buckingham; E. Harvego; K. Peddicord; M. Reza; J. Coupey

    2006-04-19

    For electricity and hydrogen production, an advanced reactor technology receiving considerable international interest is a modular, passively-safe version of the high-temperature, gas-cooled reactor, known in the U.S. as the Modular Helium Reactor (MHR), which operates at a power level of 600 MW(t). For electricity production, the MHR operates with an outlet helium temperature of 850 C to drive a direct, Brayton-cycle power-conversion system with a thermal-to-electrical conversion efficiency of 48 percent. This concept is referred to as the Gas Turbine MHR (GT-MHR). For hydrogen production, both electricity and process heat from the MHR are used to produce hydrogen. This concept is referred to as the H2-MHR. This report provides pre-conceptual design descriptions of full-scale, nth-of-a-kind H2 MHR plants based on thermochemical water splitting using the Sulfur-Iodine process and High-Temperature Electrolysis.

  6. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction ! " #" $ % % & # % " " " ' % ' ( ) * + " % ( , - . / 0 / " 0 . * 0 . * . . " 0 References A short model description Sensitivity tests Results Tropospheric humidity # " humidity 1 % 2 % ' 3 " % + 1 % 2 % % 3 % Updraft entrainment ' + % " 3 % 4 # " + %' 5 6)( . % ' 1 % .7

  7. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data Center (RReDC) Provides information about biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind energy resources. Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center Provides irradiance and meteorological data from stations throughout the United States. Baseline Measurement System (BMS) Provides live solar radiation data from approximately 70

  8. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon Elaine Hale

  9. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  10. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  11. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  12. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  13. Parc Periodical | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Parc Periodical Parc Periodical PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 2 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 1 PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 6 PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 5 PARC...

  14. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  15. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  16. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed wind speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.

  17. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed windmore » speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.« less

  18. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  19. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  20. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Value of Improved Short- Term Wind Power Forecasting B.-M. Hodge and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Sharp Sharply Focused, LLC M. Margulis and D. Mcreavy Lockheed Martin Technical Report NREL/TP-5D00-63175 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

  1. THE CATALINA SURVEYS PERIODIC VARIABLE STAR CATALOG

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drake, A. J.; Graham, M. J.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Mahabal, A. A.; Donalek, C.; Williams, R.; Catelan, M.; Torrealba, G.; García-Álvarez, D.; Prieto, J. L.; Beshore, E.; Larson, S.; Christen sen, E.; Boattini, A.; Gibbs, A.; Hill, R.; Kowalski, R.; Johnson, J.; Belokurov, V.; Koposov, S. E.; and others

    2014-07-01

    We present ∼47,000 periodic variables found during the analysis of 5.4 million variable star candidates within a 20,000 deg{sup 2} region covered by the Catalina Surveys Data Release-1 (CSDR1). Combining these variables with type ab RR Lyrae from our previous work, we produce an online catalog containing periods, amplitudes, and classifications for ∼61,000 periodic variables. By cross-matching these variables with those from prior surveys, we find that >90% of the ∼8000 known periodic variables in the survey region are recovered. For these sources, we find excellent agreement between our catalog and prior values of luminosity, period, and amplitude as well as classification. We investigate the rate of confusion between objects classified as contact binaries and type c RR Lyrae (RRc's) based on periods, colors, amplitudes, metallicities, radial velocities, and surface gravities. We find that no more than a few percent of the variables in these classes are misidentified. By deriving distances for this clean sample of ∼5500 RRc's, we trace the path of the Sagittarius tidal streams within the Galactic halo. Selecting 146 outer-halo RRc's with SDSS radial velocities, we confirm the presence of a coherent halo structure that is inconsistent with current N-body simulations of the Sagittarius tidal stream. We also find numerous long-period variables that are very likely associated within the Sagittarius tidal stream system. Based on the examination of 31,000 contact binary light curves we find evidence for two subgroups exhibiting irregular light curves. One subgroup presents significant variations in mean brightness that are likely due to chromospheric activity. The other subgroup shows stable modulations over more than a thousand days and thereby provides evidence that the O'Connell effect is not due to stellar spots.

  2. Shortest recurrence periods of novae

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kato, Mariko [Department of Astronomy, Keio University, Hiyoshi, Yokohama 223-8521 (Japan); Saio, Hideyuki [Astronomical Institute, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8578 (Japan); Hachisu, Izumi [Department of Earth Science and Astronomy, College of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 3-8-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8902 (Japan); Nomoto, Ken'ichi, E-mail: mariko@educ.cc.keio.ac.jp [Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (WPI), The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8583 (Japan)

    2014-10-01

    Stimulated by the recent discovery of the 1 yr recurrence period nova M31N 2008-12a, we examined the shortest recurrence periods of hydrogen shell flashes on mass-accreting white dwarfs (WDs). We discuss the mechanism that yields a finite minimum recurrence period for a given WD mass. Calculating the unstable flashes for various WD masses and mass accretion rates, we identified a shortest recurrence period of about two months for a non-rotating 1.38 M {sub ?} WD with a mass accretion rate of 3.6 10{sup 7} M {sub ?} yr{sup 1}. A 1 yr recurrence period is realized for very massive (? 1.3 M {sub ?}) WDs with very high accretion rates (? 1.5 10{sup 7} M {sub ?} yr{sup 1}). We revised our stability limit of hydrogen shell burning, which will be useful for binary evolution calculations toward Type Ia supernovae.

  3. Off-site Intensive Operational Period

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2 ARM Participating in Off-site Intensive Operational Period The ARM Program is playing a role in the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) intensive operational period (IOP), under way through July in South Florida. The objective of CRYSTAL-FACE is to investigate the physical properties and formation processes of tropical cirrus clouds. The ARM Program has deployed a suite of ground-based instruments in Florida for CRYSTAL-FACE

  4. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  5. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  6. PARC Periodical | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    PARC Periodical PARC Periodical February 16, 2016 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 3 VIEW ARTICLE HERE Read more about PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 3 December 7, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 2 VIEW ARTICLE HERE Read more about PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 2 October 12, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 1 VIEW ARTICLE HERE Read more about PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 1 August 20, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 6 VIEW ARTICLE HERE Read more about PARC

  7. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  8. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  9. A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mellit, Adel; Pavan, Alessandro Massi

    2010-05-15

    Forecasting of solar irradiance is in general significant for planning the operations of power plants which convert renewable energies into electricity. In particular, the possibility to predict the solar irradiance (up to 24 h or even more) can became - with reference to the Grid Connected Photovoltaic Plants (GCPV) - fundamental in making power dispatching plans and - with reference to stand alone and hybrid systems - also a useful reference for improving the control algorithms of charge controllers. In this paper, a practical method for solar irradiance forecast using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The proposed Multilayer Perceptron MLP-model makes it possible to forecast the solar irradiance on a base of 24 h using the present values of the mean daily solar irradiance and air temperature. An experimental database of solar irradiance and air temperature data (from July 1st 2008 to May 23rd 2009 and from November 23rd 2009 to January 24th 2010) has been used. The database has been collected in Trieste (latitude 45 40'N, longitude 13 46'E), Italy. In order to check the generalization capability of the MLP-forecaster, a K-fold cross-validation was carried out. The results indicate that the proposed model performs well, while the correlation coefficient is in the range 98-99% for sunny days and 94-96% for cloudy days. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the GCPV plant installed on the rooftop of the municipality of Trieste shows the goodness of the proposed model. (author)

  10. Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1994--FY 2001. Environmental Restoration Program, September 1993 Revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    This Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project. FY 1994--FY 2001 is the third in a series of documents that report current estimates of the waste volumes expected to be generated as a result of Environmental Restoration activities at Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office (DOE-ORO), sites. Considered in the scope of this document are volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of remedial action and decontamination and decommissioning activities taking place at these sites. Sites contributing to the total estimates make up the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Y-12 Plant, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, and the off-site contaminated areas adjacent to the Oak Ridge facilities (collectively referred to as the Oak Ridge Reservation Off-Site area). Estimates are available for the entire fife of all waste generating activities. This document summarizes waste estimates forecasted for the 8-year period of FY 1994-FY 2001. Updates with varying degrees of change are expected throughout the refinement of restoration strategies currently in progress at each of the sites. Waste forecast data are relatively fluid, and this document represents remediation plans only as reported through September 1993.

  11. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  12. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  13. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  14. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil prices low. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said world oil stocks are likely to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year and by 600,000 barrels per day next year. The higher forecast for inventory builds are the result of both higher global oil production and less oil

  15. Down hole periodic seismic generator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hardee, Harry C.; Hills, Richard G.; Striker, Richard P.

    1989-01-01

    A down hole periodic seismic generator system for transmitting variable frequency, predominantly shear-wave vibration into earth strata surrounding a borehole. The system comprises a unitary housing operably connected to a well head by support and electrical cabling and contains clamping apparatus for selectively clamping the housing to the walls of the borehole. The system further comprises a variable speed pneumatic oscillator and a self-contained pneumatic reservoir for producing a frequency-swept seismic output over a discrete frequency range.

  16. Advanced downhole periodic seismic generator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hardee, Harry C.; Hills, Richard G.; Striker, Richard P.

    1991-07-16

    An advanced downhole periodic seismic generator system for transmitting variable frequency, predominantly shear-wave vibration into earth strata surrounding a borehole. The system comprises a unitary housing operably connected to a well head by support and electrical cabling and contains clamping apparatus for selectively clamping the housing to the walls of the borehole. The system further comprises a variable speed pneumatic oscillator and a self-contained pneumatic reservoir for producing a frequency-swept seismic output over a discrete frequency range.

  17. Intensive Observation Period Projects Scheduled

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    1 Intensive Observation Period Projects Scheduled Several IOP projects have been scheduled for the SGP CART site this spring. These projects either have already begun or will begin shortly. Radiosondes The RS-90 Transition IOP is currently under way. The RS-90 model radiosonde is gradually replacing the older RS-80 model. Radiosondes are instrument packages attached to and launched by weather balloons. The instruments measure atmospheric pressure, temperature, and relative humidity as the

  18. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  19. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within...

  20. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  1. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  2. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an...

  3. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  4. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. ...

  5. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  6. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  7. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  8. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  9. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  10. Periodic permanent magnet focused klystron

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ferguson, Patrick; Read, Michael; Ives, R Lawrence

    2015-04-21

    A periodic permanent magnet (PPM) klystron has beam transport structures and RF cavity structures, each of which has permanent magnets placed substantially equidistant from a beam tunnel formed about the central axis, and which are also outside the extent of a cooling chamber. The RF cavity sections also have permanent magnets which are placed substantially equidistant from the beam tunnel, but which include an RF cavity coupling to the beam tunnel for enhancement of RF carried by an electron beam in the beam tunnel.

  11. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  12. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM Observations (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations (in English; Croatian) Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was

  13. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  14. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  15. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  16. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  17. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  18. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  19. Communication: A combined periodic density functional and incremental wave-function-based approach for the dispersion-accounting time-resolved dynamics of {sup 4}He nanodroplets on surfaces: {sup 4}He/graphene

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lara-Castells, María Pilar de; Stoll, Hermann; Civalleri, Bartolomeo; Causà, Mauro; Voloshina, Elena; Mitrushchenkov, Alexander O.; Pi, Martí

    2014-10-21

    In this work we propose a general strategy to calculate accurate He–surface interaction potentials. It extends the dispersionless density functional approach recently developed by Pernal et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 263201 (2009)] to adsorbate-surface interactions by including periodic boundary conditions. We also introduce a scheme to parametrize the dispersion interaction by calculating two- and three-body dispersion terms at coupled cluster singles and doubles and perturbative triples (CCSD(T)) level via the method of increments [H. Stoll, J. Chem. Phys. 97, 8449 (1992)]. The performance of the composite approach is tested on {sup 4}He/graphene by determining the energies of the low-lying selective adsorption states, finding an excellent agreement with the best available theoretical data. Second, the capability of the approach to describe dispersionless correlation effects realistically is used to extract dispersion effects in time-dependent density functional simulations on the collision of {sup 4}He droplets with a single graphene sheet. It is found that dispersion effects play a key role in the fast spreading of the {sup 4}He nanodroplet, the evaporation-like process of helium atoms, and the formation of solid-like helium structures. These characteristics are expected to be quite general and highly relevant to explain experimental measurements with the newly developed helium droplet mediated deposition technique.

  20. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  1. Periodicals collection management using a decision support system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Compton, M.L.; Moser, E.C.

    1993-12-31

    Sandia National Laboratories is a multiprogram national laboratory established in 1949. The Library currently uses DOBIS for its automated system, including the Periodicals Control function for periodical check-in. DOBIS performs processing and control functions adequately, but could not meet our reporting needs. Therefore the Library`s Periodicals Decision Team decided that they needed another ``system`` for collection management. A Periodicals Decision Support System was created using information downloaded from DOBIS and uploaded into dBASE IV. The Periodical Decision Support System functions as an information-processing system that has aided us in making collection management decisions for periodicals. It certainly allows us to do interactive ad-hoc analysis; although there are no modeling tools currently incorporated in the system. We hope that these modeling tools will come later. We have been gathering information and developing needed reports to achieve this goal.

  2. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  3. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  4. Diffuse Shortwave Intensive Observation Period

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    to the SuomiNet project. SuomiNet is a university-based, real-time national global positioning system (GPS) network for atmospheric research and education. (See June 2000 issue...

  5. Groundwater Periodic Monitoring Reports | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Groundwater Periodic Monitoring Reports Groundwater Periodic Monitoring Reports Topic: David Rhodes DOE, Provided Information on the Watersheds at LANL and the Monitoring Schedule ...

  6. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  7. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  8. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  9. Property:Maximum Wave Height(m) at Wave Period(s) | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    at Wave Period(s) Jump to: navigation, search Property Name Maximum Wave Height(m) at Wave Period(s) Property Type String Pages using the property "Maximum Wave Height(m) at Wave...

  10. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    outcome of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular interest are: 1. Correlated behavior among variables (e.g., changes in dispatch stacks, production costs, or generation by type as a function of forecasting accuracy); 2. The relative reduction in wind curtailment with improved forecasting accuracy; and 3. The value of information (e.g., which subset of

  11. HOW TO DEAL WITH WASTE ACCEPTANCE UNCERTAINTY USING THE WASTE ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA FORECASTING AND ANALYSIS CAPABILITY SYSTEM (WACFACS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Redus, K. S.; Hampshire, G. J.; Patterson, J. E.; Perkins, A. B.

    2002-02-25

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria Forecasting and Analysis Capability System (WACFACS) is used to plan for, evaluate, and control the supply of approximately 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous wastes from over 60 environmental restoration projects between FY02 through FY10 to the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). WACFACS is a validated decision support tool that propagates uncertainties inherent in site-related contaminant characterization data, disposition volumes during EMWMF operations, and project schedules to quantitatively determine the confidence that risk-based performance standards are met. Trade-offs in schedule, volumes of waste lots, and allowable concentrations of contaminants are performed to optimize project waste disposition, regulatory compliance, and disposal cell management.

  12. ARM Intensive Operational Period Scheduled to Validate New NASA Satellite

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2 ARM Intensive Operational Period Scheduled to Validate New NASA Satellite Beginning in July, all three ARM sites (Southern Great Plains [SGP], North Slope of Alaska, and Tropical Western Pacific; Figure 1) will participate in the AIRS Validation IOP. This three-month intensive operational period (IOP) will validate data collected by the satellite-based Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) recently launched into space. On May 4, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) launched

  13. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  14. Optimal observation time window for forecasting the next earthquake

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omi, Takahiro; Shinomoto, Shigeru; Kanter, Ido

    2011-02-15

    We report that the accuracy of predicting the occurrence time of the next earthquake is significantly enhanced by observing the latest rate of earthquake occurrences. The observation period that minimizes the temporal uncertainty of the next occurrence is on the order of 10 hours. This result is independent of the threshold magnitude and is consistent across different geographic areas. This time scale is much shorter than the months or years that have previously been considered characteristic of seismic activities.

  15. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below $3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below $3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular gasoline should average $2.33 per gallon this year. The price of gasoline increased in early February after falling for 17 weeks in a row. But gasoline prices will continue to remain low in 2015 when compared with pump prices in recent

  16. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the "Microbase" value added product (referred to as OBS, within

  17. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  18. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  19. Designing Auction-Based PV Incentives

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Production and operations are used to forecast future year incentive debt; ... reporting and forecasting alignment - Forecast of future year incentive payments ...

  20. Development of Seismic Isolation Systems Using Periodic Materials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yan, Yiqun; Mo, Yi-Lung; Menq, Farn-Yuh; Stokoe, II, Kenneth H.; Perkins, Judy; Tang, Yu

    2014-12-10

    Advanced fast nuclear power plants and small modular fast reactors are composed of thin-walled structures such as pipes; as a result, they do not have sufficient inherent strength to resist seismic loads. Seismic isolation, therefore, is an effective solution for mitigating earthquake hazards for these types of structures. Base isolation, on which numerous studies have been conducted, is a well-defined structure protection system against earthquakes. In conventional isolators, such as high-damping rubber bearings, lead-rubber bearings, and friction pendulum bearings, large relative displacements occur between upper structures and foundations. Only isolation in a horizontal direction is provided; these features are not desirable for the piping systems. The concept of periodic materials, based on the theory of solid-state physics, can be applied to earthquake engineering. The periodic material is a material that possesses distinct characteristics that prevent waves with certain frequencies from being transmitted through it; therefore, this material can be used in structural foundations to block unwanted seismic waves with certain frequencies. The frequency band of periodic material that can filter out waves is called the band gap, and the structural foundation made of periodic material is referred to as the periodic foundation. The design of a nuclear power plant, therefore, can be unified around the desirable feature of a periodic foundation, while the continuous maintenance of the structure is not needed. In this research project, three different types of periodic foundations were studied: one-dimensional, two-dimensional, and three-dimensional. The basic theories of periodic foundations are introduced first to find the band gaps; then the finite element methods are used, to perform parametric analysis, and obtain attenuation zones; finally, experimental programs are conducted, and the test data are analyzed to verify the theory. This procedure shows that the periodic foundation is a promising and effective way to mitigate structural damage caused by earthquake excitation.

  1. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  2. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  3. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  4. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  5. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  6. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  7. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  8. Seismic isolation of two dimensional periodic foundations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yan, Y.; Mo, Y. L.; Laskar, A.; Cheng, Z.; Shi, Z.; Menq, F.; Tang, Y.

    2014-07-28

    Phononic crystal is now used to control acoustic waves. When the crystal goes to a larger scale, it is called periodic structure. The band gaps of the periodic structure can be reduced to range from 0.5?Hz to 50?Hz. Therefore, the periodic structure has potential applications in seismic wave reflection. In civil engineering, the periodic structure can be served as the foundation of upper structure. This type of foundation consisting of periodic structure is called periodic foundation. When the frequency of seismic waves falls into the band gaps of the periodic foundation, the seismic wave can be blocked. Field experiments of a scaled two dimensional (2D) periodic foundation with an upper structure were conducted to verify the band gap effects. Test results showed the 2D periodic foundation can effectively reduce the response of the upper structure for excitations with frequencies within the frequency band gaps. When the experimental and the finite element analysis results are compared, they agree well with each other, indicating that 2D periodic foundation is a feasible way of reducing seismic vibrations.

  9. PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 4 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 4 April 6, 2015 PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 4 VIEW PERIODICAL HERE

  10. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  11. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  12. PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 3 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Vol. 6, Issue 3 February 9, 2015 PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 3 View Periodical Here

  13. Variable-Period Undulators For Synchrotron Radiation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Gopal; Lewellen, John; Shu, Deming; Vinokurov, Nikolai

    2005-02-22

    A new and improved undulator design is provided that enables a variable period length for the production of synchrotron radiation from both medium-energy and high-energy storage rings. The variable period length is achieved using a staggered array of pole pieces made up of high permeability material, permanent magnet material, or an electromagnetic structure. The pole pieces are separated by a variable width space. The sum of the variable width space and the pole width would therefore define the period of the undulator. Features and advantages of the invention include broad photon energy tunability, constant power operation and constant brilliance operation.

  14. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  15. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  16. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or

  17. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  18. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  19. doe sc arm 16 025 The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL_formatted

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    5 Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report MP Jensen SE Giangrande MJ Bartholomew April 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any

  20. Total Estimated Contract Cost: Performance Period

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    FY2012 Fee Information Minimum Fee Maximum Fee September 2015 Contract Number: Cost Plus Incentive Fee Contractor: 3,264,909,094 Contract Period: EM Contractor Fee s Idaho...

  1. Mo Year Report Period: EIA ID NUMBER:

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Mo Year Report Period: EIA ID NUMBER: http:www.eia.govsurveyformeia14instructions.pdf Mailing Address: Secure File Transfer option available at: (e.g., PO Box, RR) https:...

  2. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  3. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  4. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  5. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  6. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  7. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  8. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  9. New Tools for Forecasting Old Physics at the LHC

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2011-10-06

    For the LHC to uncover many types of new physics, the "old physics" produced by the Standard Model must be understood very well. For decades, the central theoretical tool for this job was the Feynman diagram expansion. However, Feynman diagrams are just too slow, even on fast computers, to allow adequate precision for complicated LHC events with many jets in the final state. Such events are already visible in the initial LHC data. Over the past few years, alternative methods to Feynman diagrams have come to fruition. These new "on-shell" methods are based on the old principles of unitarity and factorization. They can be much more efficient because they exploit the underlying simplicity of scattering amplitudes, and recycle lower-loop information. I will describe how and why these methods work, and present some of the recent state-of-the-art results that have been obtained with them.

  10. Scheduled Maintenance Periods | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Scheduled Maintenance Periods The CNM holds three maintenance periods per year. During these times certain CNM facilities may not be available for user activities. The Sector 26 beamline will not be available, the High-Performance Computing Cluster and nanofabrication facilities often are not available, and other facilities may undergo maintenance for only one or two days. Please contact your CNM Scientific Contact prior to arrival and plan your work visits and schedules accordingly. To better

  11. Department of Energy Extends Public Comment Period

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    In response to public comments and requests, the U.S. Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office is extending the public comment period for the Draft Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement (SWEIS) for the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) and Off-Site Locations in Nevada. The formal comment period will close on December 2, 2011, rather than October 27.

  12. Time-periodic solutions of the Benjamin-Ono equation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ambrose , D.M.; Wilkening, Jon

    2008-04-01

    We present a spectrally accurate numerical method for finding non-trivial time-periodic solutions of non-linear partial differential equations. The method is based on minimizing a functional (of the initial condition and the period) that is positive unless the solution is periodic, in which case it is zero. We solve an adjoint PDE to compute the gradient of this functional with respect to the initial condition. We include additional terms in the functional to specify the free parameters, which, in the case of the Benjamin-Ono equation, are the mean, a spatial phase, a temporal phase and the real part of one of the Fourier modes at t = 0. We use our method to study global paths of non-trivial time-periodic solutions connecting stationary and traveling waves of the Benjamin-Ono equation. As a starting guess for each path, we compute periodic solutions of the linearized problem by solving an infinite dimensional eigenvalue problem in closed form. We then use our numerical method to continue these solutions beyond the realm of linear theory until another traveling wave is reached (or until the solution blows up). By experimentation with data fitting, we identify the analytical form of the solutions on the path connecting the one-hump stationary solution to the two-hump traveling wave. We then derive exact formulas for these solutions by explicitly solving the system of ODE's governing the evolution of solitons using the ansatz suggested by the numerical simulations.

  13. Ultra-short period binaries from the Catalina Surveys

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drake, A. J.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Graham, M. J.; Mahabal, A. A.; Donalek, C.; Williams, R.; García-Álvarez, D.; Catelan, M.; Torrealba, G.; Prieto, J. L.; Abraham, S.; Larson, S.; Christensen, E.

    2014-08-01

    We investigate the properties of 367 ultra-short period binary candidates selected from 31,000 sources recently identified from Catalina Surveys data. Based on light curve morphology, along with WISE, Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and GALEX multi-color photometry, we identify two distinct groups of binaries with periods below the 0.22 day contact binary minimum. In contrast to most recent work, we spectroscopically confirm the existence of M dwarf+M dwarf contact binary systems. By measuring the radial velocity variations for five of the shortest-period systems, we find examples of rare cool white dwarf (WD)+M dwarf binaries. Only a few such systems are currently known. Unlike warmer WD systems, their UV flux and optical colors and spectra are dominated by the M-dwarf companion. We contrast our discoveries with previous photometrically selected ultra-short period contact binary candidates and highlight the ongoing need for confirmation using spectra and associated radial velocity measurements. Overall, our analysis increases the number of ultra-short period contact binary candidates by more than an order of magnitude.

  14. Periodic subsystem density-functional theory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Genova, Alessandro; Pavanello, Michele; Ceresoli, Davide

    2014-11-07

    By partitioning the electron density into subsystem contributions, the Frozen Density Embedding (FDE) formulation of subsystem Density Functional Theory (DFT) has recently emerged as a powerful tool for reducing the computational scaling of Kohn–Sham DFT. To date, however, FDE has been employed to molecular systems only. Periodic systems, such as metals, semiconductors, and other crystalline solids have been outside the applicability of FDE, mostly because of the lack of a periodic FDE implementation. To fill this gap, in this work we aim at extending FDE to treat subsystems of molecular and periodic character. This goal is achieved by a dual approach. On one side, the development of a theoretical framework for periodic subsystem DFT. On the other, the realization of the method into a parallel computer code. We find that periodic FDE is capable of reproducing total electron densities and (to a lesser extent) also interaction energies of molecular systems weakly interacting with metallic surfaces. In the pilot calculations considered, we find that FDE fails in those cases where there is appreciable density overlap between the subsystems. Conversely, we find FDE to be in semiquantitative agreement with Kohn–Sham DFT when the inter-subsystem density overlap is low. We also conclude that to make FDE a suitable method for describing molecular adsorption at surfaces, kinetic energy density functionals that go beyond the GGA level must be employed.

  15. PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 3 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 3 February 16, 2016 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 3 VIEW ARTICLE HERE News/Media PARC Periodical

  16. Magnetomechanically induced long period fiber gratings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Causado-Buelvas, Jesus D.; Gomez-Cardona, Nelson D.; Torres, Pedro

    2008-04-15

    In this work, we report a simple, flexible method to create long period fiber gratings mechanically by controlling the repulsion/attraction force between two magnets that pressing a plate with a periodic array of small glass cylinders to a short length of optical fiber. Via the photoelastic effect, the pressure points induce the required periodic refractive index modulation to create the LPFG. We found that the induced device exhibits spectral characteristics similar to those of other types of LPFG. As the optical properties of LPFGs are directly related to the nature of the applied perturbations, we show, to our knowledge for the frrst time, how is the evolution of birefringence effects in mechanically induced LPFGs.

  17. Contract Periods of Performance Exceeding 5 Years

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Acquisition Letter 2010-5 has been revised to update references, make minor editorial changes, and clarify that the Director, Field Assistance and Oversight Division is the approval authority within Department of Energy for acquisition plans that contemplate a period of performance greater than 5 years.

  18. PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 1 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    1 October 1, 2014 PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 1

  19. PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 2 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2 December 1, 2014 PARC Periodical | Vol. 6, Issue 2

  20. SEMIREGULAR VARIABLES WITH PERIODS LYING BETWEEN THE PERIOD-LUMINOSITY SEQUENCES C', C, AND D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Soszynski, I.; Wood, P. R. E-mail: wood@mso.anu.edu.au

    2013-02-15

    We analyze the distribution of semiregular variables and Mira stars in the period-luminosity plane. Our sample consists of 6169 oxygen-rich long-period variables in the Large Magellanic Cloud included in the OGLE-III Catalog of Variable Stars. There are many stars with periods that lie between the well-known sequences C and C'. Most of these stars are multi-periodic and the period ratios suggest that these stars oscillate in the same mode as the sequence C stars. Models suggest that this mode is the fundamental radial pulsation mode. The stars with primary periods between sequences C and C' preferentially lie on an additional sequence (named F), and a large fraction of these stars also have long secondary periods (LSPs) that lie between sequences C and D. There are also a small number of stars with primary periods lying between sequences C and D. The origin of this long-period variability is unknown, as is the cause of sequence D variability. In addition, the origin of sequence F is unknown but we speculate that sequence F variability may be excited by the same phenomenon that causes the LSPs.

  1. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  2. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOE/SC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,

  3. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  4. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    7a. Space Heating by Census Region and Climate Zone, Million U.S. Households, 1993 Space Heating Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Census Region Climate Zone RSE Row Factors Northeast Midwest South West Fewer than 2,000 CDD and -- More than 2,000 CDD and Few- er than 4,000 HDD More than 7,000 HDD 5,500 to 7,000 HDD 4,000 to 5,499 HDD Few- er than 4,000 HDD 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Total ................................................. 96.6 19.5 23.3 33.5 20.4 8.7 26.5

  5. Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    introduction in 1992 of an American-made truck with a fully factory-installed/war- ranted liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) engine represents another "Ford first" in the alternative fuel arena. Now the company has introduced an LPG- powered F-700, a medium/heavy- duty truck. According to Tom Steckel, Ford's medium-duty marketing man- ager, Ford's latest sales figures already prove the alternative fuel F-700's popularity. With a little more than 10 months of the model year finished, Ford

  6. Summary of available waste forecast data for the Environmental Restoration Program at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    This report identifies patterns of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Environmental Restoration (ER) waste generation that are predicted by the current ER Waste Generation Forecast data base. It compares the waste volumes to be generated with the waste management capabilities of current and proposed treatment, storage, or disposal (TSD) facilities. The scope of this report is limited to wastes generated during activities funded by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environmental Restoration (EM-40) and excludes wastes from the decontamination and decommissioning of facilities. Significant quantities of these wastes are expected to be generated during ER activities. This report has been developed as a management tool supporting communication and coordination of waste management activities at ORNL. It summarizes the available data for waste that will be generated as a result of remediation activities under the direction of the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office and identifies areas requiring continued waste management planning and coordination. Based on the available data, it is evident that most remedial action wastes leaving the area of contamination can be managed adequately with existing and planned ORR waste management facilities if attention is given to waste generation scheduling and the physical limitations of particular TSD facilities. Limited use of off-site commercial TSD facilities is anticipated, provided the affected waste streams can be shown to satisfy the requirements of the performance objective for certification of non-radioactive hazardous waste and the waste acceptance criteria of the off-site facilities. Ongoing waste characterization will be required to determine the most appropriate TSD facility for each waste stream.

  7. Periodically distributed objects with quasicrystalline diffraction pattern

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wolny, Janusz Strzalka, Radoslaw; Kuczera, Pawel

    2015-03-30

    It is possible to construct fully periodically distributed objects with a diffraction pattern identical to the one obtained for quasicrystals. These objects are probability distributions of distances obtained in the statistical approach to aperiodic structures distributed periodically. The diffraction patterns have been derived by using a two-mode Fourier transform—a very powerful method not used in classical crystallography. It is shown that if scaling is present in the structure, this two-mode Fourier transform can be reduced to a regular Fourier transform with appropriately rescaled scattering vectors and added phases. Detailed case studies for model sets 1D Fibonacci chain and 2D Penrose tiling are discussed. Finally, it is shown that crystalline, quasicrystalline, and approximant structures can be treated in the same way.

  8. DOE'S geothermal division: A period of transition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jelacic, Allan J.; Reed, Marshall

    1996-01-24

    The transition that the Department of Energy's geothemal research program is undergoing is discussed. This transitional period began last year and will continue at least through final implementation of the Department's reorganization and downsizing. Current and recently completed R&D programs are reviewed. New initiatives are outlined. The foci and direction of the Division's activities of particular interest to the geothermal research community are addressed.

  9. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  10. RESEARCH and RELATED BUDGET - SECTION A-B, BUDGET PERIOD 1

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    SECTION A-B, BUDGET PERIOD 1 *Budget Type: Project: *Name of Organization: *Budget Period: 1 Prefix *Last Name Suffix *Project Role Base Salary $ Cal. Months Acad. Months Sum. Months *Requested Salary ($) *Fringe Benefits ($) *Funds Requested ($) 1. Principal Investigator - $ - $ - $ - $ 2. - $ - $ - $ - $ 3. - $ - $ - $ - $ 4. - $ - $ - $ - $ 5. - $ - $ - $ - $ 6. - $ - $ - $ - $ 7. - $ - $ - $ - $ 8. - $ - $ - $ - $ 9. - $ - $ Attachments: Yes Cal. Months Acad. Months Sum. Months *Requested

  11. Pulsation modes of long-period variables in the period-luminosity plane

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Soszyński, I.; Udalski, A.; Wood, P. R. E-mail: udalski@astrouw.edu.pl

    2013-12-20

    We present a phenomenological analysis of long-period variables (LPVs) in the Large Magellanic Cloud with the aim of detecting pulsation modes associated with different period-luminosity (PL) relations. Among brighter LPVs, we discover a group of triple-mode semi-regular variables with the fundamental, first-overtone, and second-overtone modes simultaneously excited, which fall on PL sequences C, C', and B, respectively. The mode identification in the fainter red giants is more complicated. We demonstrate that the fundamental-mode pulsators partly overlap with the first-overtone modes. We show a possible range of fundamental mode and first overtone periods in the PL diagram.

  12. Down-hole periodic seismic generator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hardee, H.C.; Hills, R.G.; Striker, R.P.

    1982-10-28

    A down hole periodic seismic generator system is disclosed for transmitting variable frequency, predominantly shear-wave vibration into earth strata surrounding a borehole. The system comprises a unitary housing operably connected to a well head by support and electrical cabling and contains clamping apparatus for selectively clamping the housing to the walls of the borehole. The system further comprises a variable speed pneumatic oscillator and a self-contained pneumatic reservoir for producing a frequency-swept seismic output over a discrete frequency range.

  13. Property:Building/EndPeriod | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    EndPeriod Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Date. End of the period (last day of the month) Pages using the property "BuildingEndPeriod" Showing 25 pages...

  14. Logic elements for reactor period meter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    McDowell, William P.; Bobis, James P.

    1976-01-01

    Logic elements are provided for a reactor period meter trip circuit. For one element, first and second inputs are applied to first and second chopper comparators, respectively. The output of each comparator is O if the input applied to it is greater than or equal to a trip level associated with each input and each output is a square wave of frequency f if the input applied to it is less than the associated trip level. The outputs of the comparators are algebraically summed and applied to a bandpass filter tuned to f. For another element, the output of each comparator is applied to a bandpass filter which is tuned to f to give a sine wave of frequency f. The outputs of the filters are multiplied by an analog multiplier whose output is 0 if either input is 0 and a sine wave of frequency 2f if both inputs are a frequency f.

  15. Performance Period Total Fee Paid FY2001

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    FY2001 $4,547,400 FY2002 $4,871,000 FY2003 $6,177,902 FY2004 $8,743,007 FY2005 $13,134,189 FY2006 $7,489,704 FY2007 $9,090,924 FY2008 $10,045,072 FY2009 $12,504,247 FY2010 $17,590,414 FY2011 $17,558,710 FY2012 $14,528,770 Cumulative Fee Paid $126,281,339 Cost Plus Award Fee DE-AC29-01AL66444 Washington TRU Solutions LLC Contractor: Contract Number: Contract Type: $8,743,007 Contract Period: $1,813,482,000 Fee Information Maximum Fee $131,691,744 Total Estimated Contract Cost: $4,547,400

  16. Performance Period Total Fee Paid FY2008

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    FY2008 $87,580 FY2009 $87,580 FY2010 $171,763 FY2011 $1,339,286 FY 2012 $38,126 FY 2013 $42,265 Cumulative Fee Paid $1,766,600 $42,265 Cost Plus Incentive Fee/Cost Plus Fixed Fee $36,602,425 Contract Period: September 2007 - November 30, 2012 Target Fee $521,595 Total Estimated Contract Cost Contract Type: Maximum Fee $3,129,570 $175,160 $377,516 $1,439,287 Fee Available $175,160 $80,871 Accelerated Remediation Company (aRc) DE-AT30-07CC60013 Contractor: Contract Number: Minimum Fee $2,086,380

  17. EIS-0374: Notice of Extension of Comment Period | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Comment Period EIS-0374: Notice of Extension of Comment Period Klondike IIIBiglow Canyon Wind Integration Project This notice extends the close of comment for scoping from the...

  18. QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT FOR THE PERIOD OCTOBER-DECEMBER 2015...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT FOR THE PERIOD OCTOBER-DECEMBER 2015 Citation Details In-Document Search Title: QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT FOR THE PERIOD OCTOBER-DECEMBER 2015 PROJECT ...

  19. CEQ Extends Comment Period on Revised Draft Guidance on Consideration...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Extends Comment Period on Revised Draft Guidance on Consideration of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Effects of Climate Change in NEPA Reviews CEQ Extends Comment Period on ...

  20. Mirant: Summary of Monitored SO2 Concentrations During Periods...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    during periods of highest impact as well as ERMOD modeling results for SO2 scenarios. PDF icon Mirant: Summary of Monitored SO2 Concentrations During Periods of Highest...

  1. High Pressure Fuel Storage Cylinders Periodic Inspection and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Fuel Storage Cylinders Periodic Inspection and End of Life Issues High Pressure Fuel Storage Cylinders Periodic Inspection and End of Life Issues These slides were presented at the ...

  2. Negative Effective Gravity in Water Waves by Periodic Resonator...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Negative Effective Gravity in Water Waves by Periodic Resonator Arrays Prev Next Title: Negative Effective Gravity in Water Waves by Periodic Resonator Arrays Authors: Hu,...

  3. Periodic Trends in Highly Dispersed Groups IV and V Supported...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Periodic Trends in Highly Dispersed Groups IV and V Supported Metal Oxide Catalysts for ... Title: Periodic Trends in Highly Dispersed Groups IV and V Supported Metal Oxide Catalysts ...

  4. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  5. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  6. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB Veteran-Owned SB Service Disabled Vet. SB FY 2009 Dollars Goal (projected) $183,949,920 $82,690,000 $4,550,000 $8,829,596 $3,370,000 $5,025,000 $460,000 FY 2009 Dollars Accomplished $143,846,731 $68,174,398 $9,247,214 $11,333,905 $4,979,858 $6,713,791 $1,612,136 FY 2009 % Goal 45.0% 2.5% 4.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.25% FY

  7. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  8. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  9. PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 2 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center 2 December 7, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 2 VIEW ARTICLE HERE

  10. Periodic local MP2 method employing orbital specific virtuals

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Usvyat, Denis Schütz, Martin; Maschio, Lorenzo

    2015-09-14

    We introduce orbital specific virtuals (OSVs) to represent the truncated pair-specific virtual space in periodic local Møller-Plesset perturbation theory of second order (LMP2). The OSVs are constructed by diagonalization of the LMP2 amplitude matrices which correspond to diagonal Wannier-function (WF) pairs. Only a subset of these OSVs is adopted for the subsequent OSV-LMP2 calculation, namely, those with largest contribution to the diagonal pair correlation energy and with the accumulated value of these contributions reaching a certain accuracy. The virtual space for a general (non diagonal) pair is spanned by the union of the two OSV sets related to the individual WFs of the pair. In the periodic LMP2 method, the diagonal LMP2 amplitude matrices needed for the construction of the OSVs are calculated in the basis of projected atomic orbitals (PAOs), employing very large PAO domains. It turns out that the OSVs are excellent to describe short range correlation, yet less appropriate for long range van der Waals correlation. In order to compensate for this bias towards short range correlation, we augment the virtual space spanned by the OSVs by the most diffuse PAOs of the corresponding minimal PAO domain. The Fock and overlap matrices in OSV basis are constructed in the reciprocal space. The 4-index electron repulsion integrals are calculated by local density fitting and, for distant pairs, via multipole approximation. New procedures for determining the fit-domains and the distant-pair lists, leading to higher efficiency in the 4-index integral evaluation, have been implemented. Generally, and in contrast to our previous PAO based periodic LMP2 method, the OSV-LMP2 method does not require anymore great care in the specification of the individual domains (to get a balanced description when calculating energy differences) and is in that sense a black box procedure. Discontinuities in potential energy surfaces, which may occur for PAO-based calculations if one is not careful, virtually disappear for OSV-LMP2. Moreover, due to much increased compactness of the pair-specific virtual spaces, the OSV-LMP2 calculations are faster and require much less memory than PAO-LMP2 calculations, despite the noticeable overhead of the initial OSV construction procedure.

  11. Demand forecasting and revenue requirements, with implications for consideration in British Columbia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acton, J.P.

    1983-05-01

    This paper was filed as an exhibit on behalf of The Consumers' Association of Canada (B.C. Branch), The Federated Anti-Poverty Groups of B.C., The Sierra Club of Western Canada, and the B.C. Old Age Pensioners' Organization. It was subjected to cross-examination on October 29, 1982, during Phase I of the hearings. The Utilities Commission had designated Phase I for consideration of (1) demand, (2) assets in service, (3) revenue requirements excluding return, and (4) financing and capital requirements. This paper presents a general discussion of the elements of a rate structure and their relationship to the demand for electricity, a systematic review of some 50 empirical studies of the demand for electricity as a function of price and other factors by the three principal classes of customers, and a discussion of the notion of revenue requirements. The paper should be of interest to utility regulators, rate specialists, and forecasters for its review of demand models and to academics concerned with the study of energy demand.

  12. Property:Building/StartPeriod | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    to: navigation, search This is a property of type Date. Start of the period (first day o the month) Pages using the property "BuildingStartPeriod" Showing 25 pages using this...

  13. Property:Wave Period Range(s) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Property Edit with form History Property:Wave Period Range(s) Jump to: navigation, search Property Name Wave Period Range(s) Property Type String Pages using the property "Wave...

  14. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  15. The Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE 4 th Solar Integration Workshop Carlo Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Anthony Florita, and Bri-Mathias Hodge Berlin, Germany November 10, 2014 NREL/PR-5000-63082 2 Motivation and Scope * The economic benefits from renewable energy forecasting are largely unquantified in the power community o Current renewable energy penetration levels in the United States are often too low to appreciably quantify the value of improving renewable energy

  16. PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 5 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center Volume 6, Issue 5 June 3, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 5 VIEW ARTICLE HERE

  17. PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 6 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center Volume 6, Issue 6 August 20, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 6, Issue 6 VIEW ARTICLE HERE

  18. Recommendation 186: Option Periods in Prime Contract Language

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The inclusion of option periods in the language of all future DOE Request for Proposals for prime contracts when appropriate.

  19. PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 1 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center 1 October 12, 2015 PARC Periodical | Volume 7, Issue 1 VIEW ARTICLE HERE News/Media

  20. EIS-0431: Extension of Public Comment Period | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Public Comment Period EIS-0431: Extension of Public Comment Period Hydrogen Energy California's Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle and Carbon Capture and Sequestration Project, CA The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published a notice of availability on July 22, 2013 (78 FR 43870) that provided for a comment period ending September 3, 2013. DOE is extending the public comment period to October 1, 2013, and announces public hearings for the Hydrogen Energy California's Integrated Gasification

  1. Physics Division progress report for period ending September 30, 1984

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Livingston, A.B. (ed.)

    1985-01-01

    The research activities of the Division are centered primarily in three areas: experimental nuclear physics, experimental atomic physics, and theoretical nuclear and atomic physics. The largest of these efforts, experimental nuclear physics, is dominated by the heavy ion research program. A major responsibility under this program is the operation of the Holifield Heavy Ion Research Facility as a national user facility. During the period of this report, the facility has begun routine operation for the experimental program. The experimental atomic physics program has two components: the accelerator-based studies of basic collisional phenomena and the studies in support of the controlled fusion program. Also associated with the fusion-related studies are a plasma diagnostics program and the operation of an atomic physics data center. The theoretical physics program, both nuclear and atomic, is covered. This program has benefited this year from the success of the VAX-AP computer system and from the increase in manpower provided by the ORNL/University of Tennessee Distinguished Scientist Program. Smaller programs in applications and high-energy physics are summarized. During the period of this report, we continued to explore possible future extensions of the Holifield Facility. We retain a strong interest in a relativistic heavy-ion collider in the 10 x 10 GeV/nuclear energy range. The ideas for such a facility, described in last year's report, have been modified to utilize the HHIRF 25 MV tandem accelerator as the first stage. Finally, the report concludes with some general information on publications, Division activities, and personnel changes.

  2. Analysis of Energy Efficiency Program Impacts Based on Program Spending

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Analysis of Energy Efficiency Program Impacts Based on Program Spending May 2015 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of Energy Efficiency Program Impacts Based on Program Spending i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are

  3. PARC Periodical-Volume 5, Issue 6 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Periodical-Volume 5, Issue 6 August 12, 2014 PARC Periodical-Volume 5, Issue 6 View the Periodical here

  4. EIS-0403: Notice to Extend Public Comment Period | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    States The Department of Energy and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) (the Agencies) extended the public comment period for the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement to...

  5. EIS-0391: Extension of the Public Comment Period | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Tank Closure and Waste Management for the Hanford Site, Richland, WA Extension of the Public Comment Period for the Draft Tank Closure and Waste Management Environmental Impact...

  6. Extension of Comment Period on the Draft Integrated, Interagency...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    of Comment Period on the Draft Integrated, Interagency Pre-Application (IIP) Process for Electric Transmission Projects Requiring Federal Authorizations Extension of Comment...

  7. EIS-0463: Extension of Scoping Period | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Transmission LLC: Public Scoping Period Reopened: Federal Register Volume 73, No. 183 - Jun. 15, 2011 EIS-0463: Notice of Intent to Prepare a Supplement to the Draft Environmental...

  8. Notice of Extension of Public Comment Period for Application...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Extension of Public Comment Period for Application for Proposed Project for Clean Line Plains & Eastern Transmission Line: Federal Register Notice, Volume 80, No. 116 - Jun. 17, ...

  9. EIS-0489: Notice of Comment Period Extension and Additional Scoping...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    EIS-0489: Notice of Comment Period Extension and Additional Scoping Meetings Jordan Cove Liquefaction Project (Coos County, OR) and Pacific Connector Pipeline Project (Coos, ...

  10. DOE Extends Public Comment Period for Uranium Program Environmental...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Uranium Program Environmental Impact Statement DOE Extends Public Comment Period for Uranium Program Environmental Impact Statement April 18, 2013 - 1:08pm Addthis Contractor, Bob ...

  11. DOE Extends Public Comment Period for the Draft Uranium Leasing...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    the Draft Uranium Leasing Program Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement DOE Extends Public Comment Period for the Draft Uranium Leasing Program Programmatic Environmental ...

  12. Xenon plasma sustained by pulse-periodic laser radiation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rudoy, I. G.; Solovyov, N. G.; Soroka, A. M.; Shilov, A. O.; Yakimov, M. Yu.

    2015-10-15

    The possibility of sustaining a quasi-stationary pulse-periodic optical discharge (POD) in xenon at a pressure of p = 10–20 bar in a focused 1.07-μm Yb{sup 3+} laser beam with a pulse repetition rate of f{sub rep} ⩾ 2 kHz, pulse duration of τ ⩾ 200 μs, and power of P = 200–300 W has been demonstrated. In the plasma development phase, the POD pulse brightness is generally several times higher than the stationary brightness of a continuous optical discharge at the same laser power, which indicates a higher plasma temperature in the POD regime. Upon termination of the laser pulse, plasma recombines and is then reinitiated in the next pulse. The initial absorption of laser radiation in successive POD pulses is provided by 5p{sup 5}6s excited states of xenon atoms. This kind of discharge can be applied in plasma-based high-brightness broadband light sources.

  13. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  14. Period-doubling reconstructions of semiconductor partial dislocations

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Park, Ji -Sang; Huang, Bing; Wei, Su -Huai; Kang, Joongoo; McMahon, William E.

    2015-09-18

    Atomic-scale understanding and control of dislocation cores is of great technological importance, because they act as recombination centers for charge carriers in optoelectronic devices. Using hybrid density-functional calculations, we present period-doubling reconstructions of a 90° partial dislocation in GaAs, for which the periodicity of like-atom dimers along the dislocation line varies from one to two, to four dimers. The electronic properties of a dislocation change drastically with each period doubling. The dimers in the single-period dislocation are able to interact, to form a dispersive one-dimensional band with deep-gap states. However, the inter-dimer interaction for the double-period dislocation becomes significantly reduced;more » hence, it is free of mid-gap states. The Ga core undergoes a further period-doubling transition to a quadruple-period reconstruction induced by the formation of small hole polarons. Lastly, the competition between these dislocation phases suggests a new passivation strategy via population manipulation of the detrimental single-period phase.« less

  15. Quantum coherent switch utilizing commensurate nanoelectrode and charge density periodicities

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Harrison; Neil , Singleton; John , Migliori; Albert

    2008-08-05

    A quantum coherent switch having a substrate formed from a density wave (DW) material capable of having a periodic electron density modulation or spin density modulation, a dielectric layer formed onto a surface of the substrate that is orthogonal to an intrinsic wave vector of the DW material; and structure for applying an external spatially periodic electrostatic potential over the dielectric layer.

  16. USE OF AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL TO FORECAST DISSOLUTION EFFECTIVENESS, SAFETY IMPACTS, AND DOWNSTREAM PROCESSABILITY FROM OXALIC ACID AIDED SLUDGE REMOVAL IN SAVANNAH RIVER SITE HIGH LEVEL WASTE TANKS 1-15

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KETUSKY, EDWARD

    2005-10-31

    This thesis details a graduate research effort written to fulfill the Magister of Technologiae in Chemical Engineering requirements at the University of South Africa. The research evaluates the ability of equilibrium based software to forecast dissolution, evaluate safety impacts, and determine downstream processability changes associated with using oxalic acid solutions to dissolve sludge heels in Savannah River Site High Level Waste (HLW) Tanks 1-15. First, a dissolution model is constructed and validated. Coupled with a model, a material balance determines the fate of hypothetical worst-case sludge in the treatment and neutralization tanks during each chemical adjustment. Although sludge is dissolved, after neutralization more is created within HLW. An energy balance determines overpressurization and overheating to be unlikely. Corrosion induced hydrogen may overwhelm the purge ventilation. Limiting the heel volume treated/acid added and processing the solids through vitrification is preferred and should not significantly increase the number of glass canisters.

  17. Development of laser-based resonance ionization techniques for 81-Kr and 85-Kr measurements in the geosciences, II. December 1, 1994 through December 31, 2000 reporting period. Final technical report for Grant No. DE-FG05-95ER14497

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thonnard, Norbert; McKay, Larry D.; Labotka, Theodore C.

    2001-02-05

    A facility for measurement of rare Kr-81 and Kr-85 isotope concentration in hydrogeologic samples, and isotopic composition of minute quantities of krypton and xenon from extraterrestrial samples, was established, requiring refinement of an emerging mass spectrometric-based analytical technique and securing of laboratory space and equipment. The analytical process consists of (1) collecting a groundwater sample, (2) degassing the water, (3) separating Kr from the recovered gases, (4&5) two isotopic enrichments to reduce interfering isotopes by E9, and (6) detecting the rare krypton isotope in a unique time-of-flight mass spectrometer detecting as few as 100 Kr atoms. All equipment is installed and operating, with only some additional adjustment and testing of the last step (6, above) remaining to be completed. Collaborations have been established with a number of researchers and organizations world wide, and both groundwater and extraterrestrial samples have been collected. Completion of analyses awaits full operation of step 6.

  18. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  19. Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anggraeni, Novia Antika

    2015-04-24

    The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.

  20. Identification of periods of clear sky irradiance in time series of GHI measurements

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Reno, Matthew J.; Hansen, Clifford W.

    2016-01-18

    In this study, we present a simple algorithm for identifying periods of time with broadband global horizontal irradiance (GHI) similar to that occurring during clear sky conditions from a time series of GHI measurements. Other available methods to identify these periods do so by identifying periods with clear sky conditions using additional measurements, such as direct or diffuse irradiance. Our algorithm compares characteristics of the time series of measured GHI with the output of a clear sky model without requiring additional measurements. We validate our algorithm using data from several locations by comparing our results with those obtained from amore » clear sky detection algorithm, and with satellite and ground-based sky imagery.« less

  1. Linear Scaling Electronic Structure Methods with Periodic Boundary Conditions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gustavo E. Scuseria

    2008-02-08

    The methodological development and computational implementation of linear scaling quantum chemistry methods for the accurate calculation of electronic structure and properties of periodic systems (solids, surfaces, and polymers) and their application to chemical problems of DOE relevance.

  2. Property:Building/MeanAnnualTempCalculationPeriod | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Property Edit with form History Property:BuildingMeanAnnualTempCalculationPeriod Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Mean annual temperature during the...

  3. EIS-0463: Reopening of Scoping Period for the Environmental Impact...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ends on June 14, 2011. For more information see the project page at: http:energy.govnode300109. Download Document EIS-0463: Reopening of Scoping Period for the Environmental...

  4. Award Fee Evaluation Period 5 Determination Scorecard Contractor...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    5 Determination Scorecard Contractor: Fluor-BWXT Portsmouth LLC Contract: DE-AC30-10CC40017 Award Fee Evaluation Period: Fiscal Year 2015 (October 1, 2014 to September 30, 2015) ...

  5. Award Fee Evaluation Period 6 Determination Scorecard Contractor...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    6 Determination Scorecard Contractor: Wastren-EnergX Mission Support, LLC Contract: DE-CI0000004 Award Fee Evaluation Period: Fiscal Year 2015 (October 1, 2014 to September 30, ...

  6. Progress report for the period October 1981-September 1982

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-02-01

    The mission-related activities of the DOE New Brunswick Laboratory involving development, calibration, and evaluation of nuclear material measurement technology and providing measurement-related services for the Government during the period are described and summarized.

  7. Extension of Comment Period on Improving Performance of Federal Permitting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Review of Infrastructure Projects: Federal Register Notice Volume 78, No. 186 - September 25, 2013 | Department of Energy Extension of Comment Period on Improving Performance of Federal Permitting and Review of Infrastructure Projects: Federal Register Notice Volume 78, No. 186 - September 25, 2013 Extension of Comment Period on Improving Performance of Federal Permitting and Review of Infrastructure Projects: Federal Register Notice Volume 78, No. 186 - September 25, 2013 On August 29,

  8. DOE Extends Public Comment Period for Uranium Program Environmental Impact

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Statement | Department of Energy Uranium Program Environmental Impact Statement DOE Extends Public Comment Period for Uranium Program Environmental Impact Statement April 18, 2013 - 1:08pm Addthis Contractor, Bob Darr, S.M. Stoller Corporation Public Affairs, (720) 377-9672, ULinfo@lm.doe.gov GRAND JUNCTION, Colo. - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today announced that the public comment period for the Draft Uranium Leasing Program Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (ULP PEIS)

  9. Extension of Comment Period on the Draft Integrated, Interagency

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Pre-Application (IIP) Process for Electric Transmission Projects Requiring Federal Authorizations | Department of Energy Extension of Comment Period on the Draft Integrated, Interagency Pre-Application (IIP) Process for Electric Transmission Projects Requiring Federal Authorizations Extension of Comment Period on the Draft Integrated, Interagency Pre-Application (IIP) Process for Electric Transmission Projects Requiring Federal Authorizations September 25, 2013 - 4:24pm Addthis On August 29,

  10. MAGNETIC ROSSBY WAVES IN THE SOLAR TACHOCLINE AND RIEGER-TYPE PERIODICITIES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zaqarashvili, Teimuraz V.; Carbonell, Marc; Oliver, Ramon; Ballester, Jose Luis E-mail: marc.carbonell@uib.e E-mail: joseluis.ballester@uib.e

    2010-02-01

    Apart from the eleven-year solar cycle, another periodicity around 155-160 days was discovered during solar cycle 21 in high-energy solar flares, and its presence in sunspot areas and strong magnetic flux has been also reported. This periodicity has an elusive and enigmatic character, since it usually appears only near the maxima of solar cycles, and seems to be related with a periodic emergence of strong magnetic flux at the solar surface. Therefore, it is probably connected with the tachocline, a thin layer located near the base of the solar convection zone, where a strong dynamo magnetic field is stored. We study the dynamics of Rossby waves in the tachocline in the presence of a toroidal magnetic field and latitudinal differential rotation. Our analysis shows that the magnetic Rossby waves are generally unstable and that the growth rates are sensitive to the magnetic field strength and to the latitudinal differential rotation parameters. Variation of the differential rotation and the magnetic field strength throughout the solar cycle enhance the growth rate of a particular harmonic in the upper part of the tachocline around the maximum of the solar cycle. This harmonic is symmetric with respect to the equator and has a period of 155-160 days. A rapid increase of the wave amplitude could give rise to a magnetic flux emergence leading to observed periodicities in solar activity indicators related to magnetic flux.

  11. MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS OF PERIODIC PULSED REACTOR WITH MOVING GEOMETRY PARTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cao, Yan; Gohar, Yousry

    2015-11-01

    In a periodic pulsed reactor, the reactor state varies periodically from slightly subcritical to slightly prompt supercritical for producing periodic power pulses. Such periodic state change is accomplished by a periodic movement of specific reactor parts, such as control rods or reflector sections. The analysis of such reactor is difficult to perform with the current reactor physics computer programs. Based on past experience, the utilization of the point kinetics approximations gives considerable errors in predicting the magnitude and the shape of the power pulse if the reactor has significantly different neutron life times in different zones. To accurately simulate the dynamics of this type of reactor, a Monte Carlo procedure using the transfer function TRCL/TR of the MCNP/MCNPX computer programs is utilized to model the movable reactor parts. In this paper, two algorithms simulating the geometry part movements during a neutron history tracking have been developed. Several test cases have been developed to evaluate these procedures. The numerical test cases have shown that the developed algorithms can be utilized to simulate the reactor dynamics with movable geometry parts.

  12. WASP-19b: THE SHORTEST PERIOD TRANSITING EXOPLANET YET DISCOVERED

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hebb, L.; Collier-Cameron, A.; Enoch, B.; Horne, K.; Triaud, A.H.M.J.; Gillon, M.; Queloz, D.; Mayor, M.; Pepe, F.; Segransan, D.; Lister, T.A.; Smalley, B.; Maxted, P.F.L.; Hellier, C.; Anderson, D.R.; Bentley, S.; Pollacco, D.; West, R.G.; Haswell, C.A.; Skillen, I.

    2010-01-01

    We report on the discovery of a new extremely short period transiting extrasolar planet, WASP-19b. The planet has mass M{sub pl} = 1.15 +- 0.08 M{sub J} , radius R{sub pl} = 1.31 +- 0.06 R{sub J} , and orbital period P = 0.7888399 +- 0.0000008 days. Through spectroscopic analysis, we determine the host star to be a slightly super-solar metallicity ([M/H] = 0.1 +- 0.1 dex) G-dwarf with T{sub eff} = 5500 +- 100 K. In addition, we detect periodic, sinusoidal flux variations in the light curve which are used to derive a rotation period for the star of P{sub rot} = 10.5 +- 0.2 days. The relatively short stellar rotation period suggests that either WASP-19 is somewhat young (approx 600 Myr old) or tidal interactions between the two bodies have caused the planet to spiral inward over its lifetime resulting in the spin-up of the star. Due to the detection of the rotation period, this system has the potential to place strong constraints on the stellar tidal quality factor, Q'{sub s}, if a more precise age is determined.

  13. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The project's outcomes will include enhancing the spatial and temporal resolution of SolarAnywhere, an online satellite-based irradiance dataset, and adding output variability and ...

  14. DE-EE0006329 Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... The fractional derivatives, which are based on an integro-differential operator, ... Supplied by Itron, ALFS utilizes an artificial neural network methodology that incorporates ...

  15. LONG-TERM PERIODICITY VARIATIONS OF THE SOLAR RADIUS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qu, Z. N.; Xie, J. L.

    2013-01-01

    In order to study the long-term periodicity variations of the solar radius, daily solar radius data from 1978 February to 2000 September at the Calern Observatory are used. Continuous observations of the solar radius are difficult due to the weather, seasonal effects, and instrument characteristics. Thus, to analyze these data, we first use the Dixon criterion to reject suspect values, then we measure the cross-correlation between the solar radius and sunspot numbers. The result indicates that the solar radius is in complete antiphase with the sunspot numbers and shows lead times of 74 months relative to the sunspot numbers. The Lomb-Scargle and date compensated discrete Fourier transform methods are also used to investigate the periodicity of the solar radius. Both methods yield similar significance periodicities around {approx}1 yr, {approx}2.6 yr, {approx}3.6 yr, and {approx}11 yr. Possible mechanisms for these periods are discussed. The possible physical cause of the {approx}11 yr period is the cyclic variation of the magnetic pressure of the concentrated flux tubes at the bottom of the solar convection zone.

  16. Effects of the Financial Crisis on Photovoltaics: An Analysis of Changes in Market Forecasts from 2008 to 2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bartlett, J. E.; Margolis, R. M.; Jennings, C. E.

    2009-09-01

    To examine how the financial crisis has impacted expectations of photovoltaic production, demand and pricing over the next several years, we surveyed the market forecasts of industry analysts that had issued projections in 2008 and 2009. We find that the financial crisis has had a significant impact on the PV industry, primarily through increasing the cost and reducing the availability of investment into the sector. These effects have been more immediately experienced by PV installations than by production facilities, due to the different types and duration of investments, and thus PV demand has been reduced by a greater proportion than PV production. By reducing demand more than production, the financial crisis has accelerated previously expected PV overcapacity and resulting price declines.

  17. Enhancing Cloud Radiative Processes and Radiation Efficiency in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iacono, Michael J.

    2015-03-09

    The objective of this research has been to evaluate and implement enhancements to the computational performance of the RRTMG radiative transfer option in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Efficiency is as essential as accuracy for effective numerical weather prediction, and radiative transfer is a relatively time-consuming component of dynamical models, taking up to 30-50 percent of the total model simulation time. To address this concern, this research has implemented and tested a version of RRTMG that utilizes graphics processing unit (GPU) technology (hereinafter RRTMGPU) to greatly improve its computational performance; thereby permitting either more frequent simulation of radiative effects or other model enhancements. During the early stages of this project the development of RRTMGPU was completed at AER under separate NASA funding to accelerate the code for use in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Goddard Earth Observing System GEOS-5 global model. It should be noted that this final report describes results related to the funded portion of the originally proposed work concerning the acceleration of RRTMG with GPUs in WRF. As a k-distribution model, RRTMG is especially well suited to this modification due to its relatively large internal pseudo-spectral (g-point) dimension that, when combined with the horizontal grid vector in the dynamical model, can take great advantage of the GPU capability. Thorough testing under several model configurations has been performed to ensure that RRTMGPU improves WRF model run time while having no significant impact on calculated radiative fluxes and heating rates or on dynamical model fields relative to the RRTMG radiation. The RRTMGPU codes have been provided to NCAR for possible application to the next public release of the WRF forecast model.

  18. EIS-0236-S4: Extension of Comment Period | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Extension of Comment Period EIS-0236-S4: Extension of Comment Period Complex Transformation Extension of Comment Period for the Draft Complex Transformation Supplemental...

  19. National Weatherization Assistance Program Characterization Describing the Recovery Act Period

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tonn, Bruce Edward; Rose, Erin M.; Hawkins, Beth A.

    2015-10-01

    This report characterizes the U.S. Department of Energy s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) during the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Recovery Act) period. This research was one component of the Recovery Act evaluation of WAP. The report presents the results of surveys administered to Grantees (i.e., state weatherization offices) and Subgrantees (i.e., local weatherization agencies). The report also documents the ramp up and ramp down of weatherization production and direct employment during the Recovery Act period and other challenges faced by the Grantees and Subgrantees during this period. Program operations during the Recovery Act (Program Year 2010) are compared to operations during the year previous to the Recovery Act (Program Year 2008).

  20. PARC Periodical-Volume 5, Issue 4 | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Periodical-Volume 5, Issue 4 April 14, 2014 PARC Periodical-Volume 5, Issue 4 View Issue

  1. Quasi-periodic quantum dot arrays produced by electrochemical synthesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bandyopadhyay, S.; Miller, A.E.; Yue, D.F.; Banerjee, G.; Ricker, R.E.; Jones, S.; Eastman, J.A.; Baugher, E.; Chandrasekhar, M.

    1994-06-01

    We discuss a ``gentle`` electrochemical technique for fabricating quasi-periodic quantum dot arrays. The technique exploits a self-organizing phenomenon to produce quasi-periodic arrangement of dots and provides excellent control over dot size and interdot spacing. Unlike conventional nanolithography, it does not cause radiation damage to the structures during exposure to pattern delineating beams (e-beam, ion-beam or x-ray). Moreover, it does not require harsh processing steps like reactive ion etching, offers a minimum feature size of {approximately}40 {angstrom}, allows the fabrication of structures on nonplanar surfaces (e.g. spherical or cylindrical substrates), is amenable to mass production (millions of wafers can be processed simultaneously) and is potentially orders of magnitude cheaper than conventional nanofabrication. In this paper, we describe our initial results and show the promise of this technique for low-cost and high-yield nanosynthesis.

  2. Enforcement Policy Statement: Compliance Period for Regional Standards

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Compliance Period for Regional Standards Applicable to Central Air Conditioners April 24, 2014 On June 27, 2011, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published in the Federal Register a direct final rule (DFR) under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), 42 U.S.C. §§ 6291-6309, which set forth amended energy conservation standards for residential furnaces, central air conditioners, and heat pumps, including regional standards for different product types in indicated States. 76 FR 37408.

  3. Regional price targets appropriate for advanced coal extraction. [Forecasting to 1985 and 2000; USA; Regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Terasawa, K.L.; Whipple, D.W.

    1980-12-01

    The object of the study is to provide a methodology for predicting coal prices in regional markets for the target time frames 1985 and 2000 that could subsequently be used to guide the development of an advanced coal extraction system. The model constructed for the study is a supply and demand model that focuses on underground mining, since the advanced technology is expected to be developed for these reserves by the target years. The supply side of the model is based on coal reserve data generated by Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. (EEA). Given this data and the cost of operating a mine (data from US Department of Energy and Bureau of Mines), the Minimum Acceptable Selling Price (MASP) is obtained. The MASP is defined as the smallest price that would induce the producer to bring the mine into production, and is sensitive to the current technology and to assumptions concerning miner productivity. Based on this information, market supply curves can then be generated. On the demand side of the model, demand by region is calculated based on an EEA methodology that emphasizes demand by electric utilities and demand by industry. The demand and supply curves are then used to obtain the price targets. This last step is accomplished by allocating the demands among the suppliers so that the combined cost of producing and transporting coal is minimized.

  4. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-10-03

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

  5. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 5: The DOETRAN user`s manual; The DOE-2/DBEDT DSM forecasting model interface

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then process the data into the forecasting model format. As DOETRAN processes the DOE-2 data, graphs of the total electric monthly impacts for each DSM measure appear, providing the user with a visual means of inspecting DOE-2 data, as well as following program execution. DOETRAN provides three tables for each building type for the forecasting model, one for electric measures, gas measures, and basecases. The optional fourth function provided by DOETRAN is to view graphs of total electric annual impacts by measure. This last option allows a comparative view of how one measure rates against another. A section in this manual is devoted to each of the four functions mentioned above, as well as computer requirements and exiting DOETRAN.

  6. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  7. Final Report, 2011-2014. Forecasting Carbon Storage as Eastern Forests Age. Joining Experimental and Modeling Approaches at the UMBS AmeriFlux Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis, Peter; Bohrer, Gil; Gough, Christopher; Nadelhoffer, Knute

    2015-03-12

    At the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) AmeriFlux sites (US-UMB and US-UMd), long-term C cycling measurements and a novel ecosystem-scale experiment are revealing physical, biological, and ecological mechanisms driving long-term trajectories of C cycling, providing new data for improving modeling forecasts of C storage in eastern forests. Our findings provide support for previously untested hypotheses that stand-level structural and biological properties constrain long-term trajectories of C storage, and that remotely sensed canopy structural parameters can substantially improve model forecasts of forest C storage. Through the Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET), we are directly testing the hypothesis that forest C storage will increase due to increasing structural and biological complexity of the emerging tree communities. Support from this project, 2011-2014, enabled us to incorporate novel physical and ecological mechanisms into ecological, meteorological, and hydrological models to improve forecasts of future forest C storage in response to disturbance, succession, and current and long-term climate variation

  8. Beyond periodic orbits: An example in nonhydrogenic atoms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dando, P.A.; Monteiro, T.S.; Delande, D.; Taylor, K.T. (Department of Mathematics, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, Surrey, TW20 0EX (United Kingdom) Laboratoire Kastler-Brossel, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, 4 place Jussieu, F-75005 Paris (France) Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, BT7 1NN (United Kingdom))

    1995-02-13

    The spectrum of hydrogen in a magnetic field is a paradigm of quantum chaos and may be analyzed accurately by periodic-orbit-type theories. In nonhydrogenic atoms, the core induces pure quantum effects, especially additional spectral modulations, which cannot be analyzed reliably in terms of classical orbits and their stability parameters. Provided core-scattered waves are included consistently, core-scattered modulations as well as corrected amplitudes for primitive orbits are in excellent agreement with quantum results. We consider whether these systems correspond to quantum chaos.

  9. DURING THIS REPORTING PERIOD, WE ISSUED 39 REPORTS; IDENTIFIED

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    39 REPORTS; IDENTIFIED $12.6 MILLION IN FUNDS PUT TO BETTER USE AND $19.3 MILLION IN QUESTIONED COSTS; OBTAINED $6.2 MILLION IN FINES, SETTLEMENTS, AND RECOVERIES, 6 CRIMINAL CONVICTIONS, 20 SUSPENSIONS AND DEBARMENTS, AND 51 CIVIL AND ADMINISTRATIVE ACTIONS; AND RECEIVED 1,679 HOTLINE CONTACTS. DURING THIS REPORTING PERIOD, WE ISSUED 39 REPORTS; IDENTIFIED $12.6 MILLION IN FUNDS PUT TO BETTER US AND $19.3 MILLION IN QUESTIONED COSTS; OBTAINED $6.2 MILLION IN FINES, SETTLEMENTS, AND RECOVERIES,

  10. THE FREQUENCY OF LOW-MASS EXOPLANETS. III. TOWARD {eta}{sub +} AT SHORT PERIODS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wittenmyer, Robert A.; Tinney, C. G.; Bailey, J.; Horner, J.; Butler, R. P.; O'Toole, Simon J.; Jones, H. R. A.; Carter, B. D.

    2011-09-01

    Determining the occurrence rate of 'super-Earth' planets (m sin i < 10 M{sub +}) is a critically important step on the path toward determining the frequency of Earth-like planets ({eta}{sub +}), and hence the uniqueness of our solar system. Current radial-velocity surveys, achieving precisions of 1 m s{sup -1}, are now able to detect super-Earths and provide meaningful estimates of their occurrence rate. We present an analysis of 67 solar-type stars from the Anglo-Australian Planet Search specifically targeted for very high precision observations. When corrected for incompleteness, we find that the planet occurrence rate increases sharply with decreasing planetary mass. Our results are consistent with those from other surveys: in periods shorter than 50 days, we find that 3.0% of stars host a giant (msin i > 100 M{sub +}) planet, and that 17.4% of stars host a planet with msin i < 10 M{sub +}. The preponderance of low-mass planets in short-period orbits is in conflict with formation simulations in which the majority of super-Earths reside at larger orbital distances. This work gives a hint as to the size of {eta}{sub +}, but to make meaningful predictions on the frequency of terrestrial planets in longer, potentially habitable orbits, low-mass terrestrial planet searches at periods of 100-200 days must be made an urgent priority for ground-based Doppler planet searches in the years ahead.

  11. PULSATION PERIOD VARIATIONS IN THE RRc LYRAE STAR KIC 5520878

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hippke, Michael; Learned, John G.; Zee, A.; Edmondson, William H.; Lindner, John F.; Kia, Behnam; Ditto, William L.; Stevens, Ian R. E-mail: jgl@phys.hawaii.edu E-mail: w.h.edmondson@bham.ac.uk E-mail: wditto@hawaii.edu E-mail: irs@star.sr.bham.ac.uk

    2015-01-01

    Learned et al. proposed that a sufficiently advanced extra-terrestrial civilization may tickle Cepheid and RR Lyrae variable stars with a neutrino beam at the right time, thus causing them to trigger early and jogging the otherwise very regular phase of their expansion and contraction. This would turn these stars into beacons to transmit information throughout the galaxy and beyond. The idea is to search for signs of phase modulation (in the regime of short pulse duration) and patterns, which could be indicative of intentional, omnidirectional signaling. We have performed such a search among variable stars using photometric data from the Kepler space telescope. In the RRc Lyrae star KIC 5520878, we have found two such regimes of long and short pulse durations. The sequence of period lengths, expressed as time series data, is strongly autocorrelated, with correlation coefficients of prime numbers being significantly higher (p = 99.8%). Our analysis of this candidate star shows that the prime number oddity originates from two simultaneous pulsation periods and is likely of natural origin. Simple physical models elucidate the frequency content and asymmetries of the KIC 5520878 light curve. Despite this SETI null result, we encourage testing of other archival and future time-series photometry for signs of modulated stars. This can be done as a by-product to the standard analysis, and can even be partly automated.

  12. Short-period pulsar oscillations following a glitch

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Van Eysden, C. A.

    2014-07-10

    Following a glitch, the crust and magnetized plasma in the outer core of a neutron star are believed to rapidly establish a state of co-rotation within a few seconds by process analogous to classical Ekman pumping. However, in ideal magnetohydrodynamics, a final state of co-rotation is inconsistent with conservation of energy of the system. We demonstrate that, after the Ekman-like spin up is completed, magneto-inertial waves continue to propagate throughout the star, exciting torsional oscillations in the crust and plasma. The crust oscillation is irregular and quasi-periodic, with a dominant frequency of the order of seconds. Crust oscillations commence after an Alfvn crossing time, approximately half a minute at the magnetic pole, and are subsequently damped by the electron viscosity over approximately an hour. In rapidly rotating stars, the magneto-inertial spectrum in the core approaches a continuum, and crust oscillations are damped by resonant absorption analogous to quasi-periodic oscillations in magnetars. The oscillations predicted are unlikely to be observed in timing data from existing radio telescopes, but may be visible to next generation telescope arrays.

  13. EXPLORING THE VARIABLE SKY WITH LINEAR. III. CLASSIFICATION OF PERIODIC LIGHT CURVES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Palaversa, Lovro; Eyer, Laurent; Rimoldini, Lorenzo; Ivezi?, eljko; Loebman, Sarah; Hunt-Walker, Nicholas; VanderPlas, Jacob; Westman, David; Becker, Andrew C.; Rudjak, Domagoj; Sudar, Davor; Boi?, Hrvoje; Galin, Mario; Kroflin, Andrea; Mesari?, Martina; Munk, Petra; Vrbanec, Dijana; Sesar, Branimir; Stuart, J. Scott; Srdo?, Gregor; and others

    2013-10-01

    We describe the construction of a highly reliable sample of ?7000 optically faint periodic variable stars with light curves obtained by the asteroid survey LINEAR across 10,000 deg{sup 2} of the northern sky. The majority of these variables have not been cataloged yet. The sample flux limit is several magnitudes fainter than most other wide-angle surveys; the photometric errors range from ?0.03 mag at r = 15 to ?0.20 mag at r = 18. Light curves include on average 250 data points, collected over about a decade. Using Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) based photometric recalibration of the LINEAR data for about 25 million objects, we selected ?200,000 most probable candidate variables with r < 17 and visually confirmed and classified ?7000 periodic variables using phased light curves. The reliability and uniformity of visual classification across eight human classifiers was calibrated and tested using a catalog of variable stars from the SDSS Stripe 82 region and verified using an unsupervised machine learning approach. The resulting sample of periodic LINEAR variables is dominated by 3900 RR Lyrae stars and 2700 eclipsing binary stars of all subtypes and includes small fractions of relatively rare populations such as asymptotic giant branch stars and SX Phoenicis stars. We discuss the distribution of these mostly uncataloged variables in various diagrams constructed with optical-to-infrared SDSS, Two Micron All Sky Survey, and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer photometry, and with LINEAR light-curve features. We find that the combination of light-curve features and colors enables classification schemes much more powerful than when colors or light curves are each used separately. An interesting side result is a robust and precise quantitative description of a strong correlation between the light-curve period and color/spectral type for close and contact eclipsing binary stars (? Lyrae and W UMa): as the color-based spectral type varies from K4 to F5, the median period increases from 5.9 hr to 8.8 hr. These large samples of robustly classified variable stars will enable detailed statistical studies of the Galactic structure and physics of binary and other stars and we make these samples publicly available.

  14. Forecast of Standard Atomic Weights for the Mononuclidic Elements – 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Holden, N.E.; Holden, N.; Holden,N.E.

    2011-07-27

    In this short report, I will provide an early warning about potential changes to the standard atomic weight values for the twenty mononuclidic and the so-called pseudo-mononuclidic ({sup 232}Th and {sup 231}Pa) chemical elements due to the estimated changes in the mass values to be published in the next Atomic Mass Tables within the next two years. There have been many new measurements of atomic masses, since the last published Atomic Mass Table. The Atomic Mass Data Center has released an unpublished version of the present status of the atomic mass values as a private communication. We can not update the Standard Atomic Weight Table at this time based on these unpublished values but we can anticipate how many changes are probably going to be expected in the next few years on the basis of the forthcoming publication of the Atomic Mass Table. I will briefly discuss the procedures that the Atomic Weights Commission used in deriving the recommended Standard Atomic Weight values and their uncertainties from the atomic mass values. I will also discuss some concern raised about a proposed change in the definition of the mole. The definition of the mole is now connected directly to the mass of a {sup 12}C isotope (which is defined as 12 exactly) and to the kilogram. A change in the definition of the mole will probably impact the mass of {sup 12}C.

  15. Occupational and traning requirements for expanded coal production (as of October 1980). [Forecasting to 1995

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1982-04-01

    This study was initiated because of the anticipated rapid growth in trained personnel requirements in bituminous coal mining, and because the industry had already experienced significant problems in recruiting skilled manpower in the course of its employment expansion during the 1970's. Employment in bituminous coal mining is projected to nearly double, from 234,000 in 1977 to 456,000 in 1995, as the net result of a projected threefold increase in coal output to nearly 2.0 billion in 1995 and of an expected significant improvement in overall productivity. A large proportion of current coal mining employees are in occupations which require significant amounts of training for effective work performance. Employment growth to 1955 will be most rapid in those occupations requiring the greatest training or educational preparation. The new training infrastructure which has emerged to meet these needs includes both internal, company-operated training programs and those offered by various external providers. Among the latter are: Vocational schools, community colleges, and university extension departments; public agencies, such as MSHA and state mining departments; coal industry trade associations; and vendors or training consultant groups. The Conference Board survey of coal industry training programs, conducted in late 1979, was designed to provide comprehensive data on the scope of the coal industry's own training activities and on related training issues, based on a mail questionnaire survey addressed to all companies producing 300,000 or more tons per year. The training programs are described with emphasis on time changes, regional effects and implications for a coordinated plan.

  16. Transverse commensurability effect for vortices on periodic pinning arrays

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reichhardt, Charles; Reichhardt, Cynthia J

    2008-01-01

    Using computer simulations, we demonstrate a type of commensurability that occurs for vortices moving longitudinally through periodic pinning arrays in the presence of an additional transverse driving force. As a function of vortex density, there is a series of broad maxima in the transverse critical depinning force that do not fall at the matching fields where the number of vortices equals an integer multiple of the number of pinning sites. The commensurability effects are associated with dynamical states in which evenly spaced structures consisting of one or more moving rows of vortices form between rows of pinning sites. Remarkably, the critical transverse depinning force can be more than an order of magnitude larger than the longitudinal depinning force.

  17. Chaotic dynamics in a periodically driven spin-1 condensate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheng Jing [Department of Physics, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640 (China); Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics China, CAS, Beijing 100190 (China)

    2010-02-15

    We use periodically modulated magnetic fields to drive spin-1 Bose-Einstein condensates (BECs) and study the corresponding spin-mixing dynamics. Due to the time-dependent driving, this system permits chaotic dynamics depending on the drive parameters, which could not occur in previous studies. From the investigation of the Poincare sections, we find there exist complex trajectories in the phase space, leading to very complicated structures of the phase space with mixed regular and chaotic regions. By calculating the quasienergy levels of the corresponding Floquet operators, the signatures of quantum chaos are also found in this system. The level spacing distribution is very close to the Poisson distribution or Wigner distribution when the corresponding classical dynamics is regular or chaotic.

  18. Instrumentation to Monitor Transient Developing Periodic Flow in Newtonian Slurries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bamberger, Judith A.; Enderlin, Carl W.

    2014-08-03

    This paper describes measurement techniques developed and applied to characterize solids mobilization and mixing of Newtonian slurries that are subjected to transient, periodic, developing flows. Metrics to characterize mobilization and mixing are the just suspended velocity (UJS) and the cloud height (HC). Two ultrasonic instruments to characterize pulse jet mixing of slurries were developed and deployed to measure related metrics: the thickness of the settled bed (used to determine mobilization) and the concentration within the cloud as a function of elevation [C(Z)]. A second method, continuous sample extraction, characterization, and reinsertion was successfully used to measure average density and characterize the concentration within the cloud. Testing focused on mixing vessels using intermitent jet mixers oriented vertically downward. Descriptions of the instruments and instrument performance are presented. These techniques were an effective approach to characterize mixing phenomena, determine mixing energy required to fully mobilize vessel contents, and to determine mixing times for process evaluation.

  19. Total Estimated Contract Cost: Contract Option Period: Performance

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Performance Period Fee Earned FY2000 thru 2008 $102,622,325 FY2009 $12,259,719 FY2010 $35,789,418 FY2011 $24,126,240 FY2012 $24,995,209 FY2013 $6,340,762 FY2014 $16,285,867 FY2015 $35,931,000 $8,595,000 FY2016 $20,891,000 $8,810,000 FY2017 $24,849,000 FY2018 $99,100,000 FY2019 $129,700,000 Cumulative Fee $239,824,540 EM Contractor Fee March 2015 Site: Office of River Protection, Richland, WA Contract Name: Waste Treatment Plant Design, Construction Contract $750,000 Contractor: Bechtel National

  20. IUPAC Periodic Table of Isotopes for the Educational Community

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Holden N. E.; Holden,N.E.; Coplen,T.B.

    2012-07-15

    John Dalton first proposed the concept of atomic weights of the elements in the first decade of the nineteenth century. These atomic weights of the chemical elements were thought of as constants of nature, similar to the speed of light. Dmitri Mendeleev arranged the atomic weights of the elements in ascending order of value and used the systematic variation of their chemical properties to produce his Periodic Table of the Elements in 1869. Measurement of atomic weight values became an important chemical activity for a century and a half. Theodore Richards received a Noble Prize for his work in this area. In 1913, Fredrick Soddy found a species of radium, which had an atomic weight value of 228, compared to the familiar radium gas value of 226. Soddy coined the term 'isotope' (Greek for 'in the same place') to account for this second atomic weight value in the radium position of the Periodic Table. Both of these isotopes of radium are radioactive. Radioactive isotopes are energetically unstable and will decay (disintegrate) over time. The time it takes for one half of a sample of a given radioactive isotope to decay is the half-life of that isotope. In addition to having different atomic weight values, radium-226 and radium-228 also have different half-life values. Around the same time as Soddy's work, J.J. Thomson (discoverer of the electron) identified two stable (non-radioactive) isotopes of the same element, neon. Over the next 40 years, the majority of the known chemical elements were found to have two or more stable (or long-lived radioactive isotopes that contribute significantly to the determination of the atomic weights of the elements).

  1. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod1 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 1 Pages using the property "OpenEIUtilityRateDemandChargePeriod1"...

  2. 24 m meteorological tower data report period: January through December, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freeman, D.; Bowen, J.; Egami, R.; Coulombe, W.; Crow, D.; Cristani, B.; Schmidt, S.

    1997-12-01

    This report was prepared by the Desert Research Institute (DRI) for the US Department of Energy (DOE). It summarizes meteorological data collected at the 24 meter tower at the Nevada Test Site Hazardous Material Spill Center (HAZMAT) located at Frenchman Flat near Mercury, Nevada, approximately 75 miles northwest of Las Vegas, Nevada. The tower was originally installed in July, 1993 to characterize baseline conditions for an EPA sponsored experimental research program at the HAZMAT. This report presents results of the monitoring for January--December, 1996, providing: a status of the measurement systems during the report period and a summary of the meteorological conditions at the HAZMAT during the report period. The scope of the report is limited to summary data analyses and does not include extensive meteorological analysis. The tower was instrumented at 8 levels. Wind speed, wind direction, and temperature were measured at all 8 levels. Relative humidity was measured at 3 levels. Solar and net radiation were measured at 2 meters above the ground. Barometric pressure was measured at the base of the tower and soil temperature was measured near the base of the tower.

  3. Lithospheric Thickness Modeled from Long Period Surface Wave Dispersion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pasyanos, M E

    2008-05-15

    The behavior of surface waves at long periods is indicative of subcrustal velocity structure. Using recently published dispersion models, we invert surface wave group velocities for lithospheric structure, including lithospheric thickness, over much of the Eastern Hemisphere, encompassing Eurasia, Africa, and the Indian Ocean. Thicker lithosphere under Precambrian shields and platforms are clearly observed, not only under the large cratons (West Africa, Congo, Baltic, Russia, Siberia, India), but also under smaller blocks like the Tarim Basin and Yangtze craton. In contrast, it is found that remobilized Precambrian structures like the Saharan Shield and Sino-Korean Paraplatform do not have well-established lithospheric keels. The thinnest lithospheric thickness is found under oceanic and continental rifts, as well as along convergence zones. We compare our results to thermal models of continental lithosphere, lithospheric cooling models of oceanic lithosphere, lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) estimates from S-wave receiver functions, and velocity variations of global tomography models. In addition to comparing results for the broad region, we examine in detail the regions of Central Africa, Siberia, and Tibet. While there are clear differences in the various estimates, overall the results are generally consistent. Inconsistencies between the estimates may be due to a variety of reasons including lateral and depth resolution differences and the comparison of what may be different lithospheric features.

  4. Physics division. Progress report for period ending September 30, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ball, S.J.

    1997-04-01

    This report covers the research and development activities of the Physics Division for the 1995 and 1996 fiscal years, beginning October 1, 1994, and ending September 30, 1996. The activities of the Division continue to be concentrated in the areas of experimental nuclear physics, experimental atomic physics, and theoretical nuclear and atomic physics. In addition, there are smaller programs in plasma diagnostics and data compilation and evaluation. During the period of this report, there has been considerable success in bringing the Holifield Radioactive Ion Beam Facility (HRIBF) into routine operation. The budgets of the nuclear physics portion of the Division have increased each year in nearly all areas, and several new members have been added to the Division research and development staff. On August 30, 1996, the HRIBF successfully accelerated its first radioactive ion beams, {sup 69}As and {sup 70}As. Prior to this, the heart of the facility, the RIB injector system, was completed, including installation of a remote handling system for the target/ion source assembly. Target and ion source development is likely to be the technical key to success of the HRIBF. We have expanded our efforts in those development areas. Of special note is the development of highly permeable composite targets which have now been shown to allow release of difficult-to-produce radioactive ions such as {sup 17,18}F. A summary of the HRIBF work is provided in Chapter 1, along with supporting activities of the Joint Institute for Heavy Ion Research.

  5. An optimized periodic inspection program for condensers and feedwater heaters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reinhart, E.R.; Kaminski, S.

    1996-12-31

    Tube failures in steam plant surface condensers and feedwater heaters are a significant reliability problem for the electric power industry. Tube failures can also result in an increase in replacement power costs. In addition, condenser leaks from failed tubes have potentially harmful effects on major components such as steam generators and turbines. To reduce the number of tube failures and consequent leakage, periodic maintenance programs have used the nondestructive evaluation (NDE) method of eddy-current testing (ET) to inspect the condition of the tubes from the water side. This NDE method can identify tubes that have experienced major degradation and should be plugged to prevent in-service failure. However, the use of NDE methods in plant maintenance of condensers and feedwater heaters is not standard practice and varies significantly throughout the utility industry. Variability of inspection results and difficulty in inspecting some types of tubing (monel, carbon steel) have caused many utility sites to question the value of in-service inspection of heat transfer tubing from the water side. Recognizing the above problem, advanced ET systems have been developed that use multi-frequency, remote field and digital data processing techniques to inspect a wide variety of tubing materials and produce on-site inspection reports. Recent field examination results will be presented.

  6. THE DECAYING LONG-PERIOD OSCILLATION OF A STELLAR MEGAFLARE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anfinogentov, S.; Nakariakov, V. M.; Mathioudakis, M.; Van Doorsselaere, T.; Kowalski, A. F.

    2013-08-20

    We analyze and interpret the oscillatory signal in the decay phase of the U-band light curve of a stellar megaflare observed on 2009 January 16 on the dM4.5e star YZ CMi. The oscillation is well approximated by an exponentially decaying harmonic function. The period of the oscillation is found to be 32 minutes, the decay time about 46 minutes, and the relative amplitude 15%. As this observational signature is typical of the longitudinal oscillations observed in solar flares at extreme ultraviolet and radio wavelengths, associated with standing slow magnetoacoustic waves, we suggest that this megaflare may be of a similar nature. In this scenario, macroscopic variations of the plasma parameters in the oscillations modulate the ejection of non-thermal electrons. The phase speed of the longitudinal (slow magnetoacoustic) waves in the flaring loop or arcade, the tube speed, of about 230 km s{sup -1} would require a loop length of about 200 Mm. Other mechanisms, such as standing kink oscillations, are also considered.

  7. Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Test Procedures for Furnaces and Boilers, Comment Period Extension

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Test Procedures for Furnaces and Boilers, Comment Period Extension

  8. Physics Division progress report for period ending September 30, 1983

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-12-01

    Research and development activities are summarized in the following areas: Holifield Heavy Ion Research Facility, nuclear physics, the UNISOR program, accelerator-based atomic physics, theoretical physics, nuclear science applications, atomic physics and plasma diagnostics for fusion program, high-energy physics, the nuclear data project, and the relativistic heavy-ion collider study. Publications and papers presented are listed. (WHK)

  9. The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

    2012-12-31

    ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most wind plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational setting. It shall be demonstrated that when used properly, the real-time offsite measurements materially improve wind ramp capture and prediction statistics, when compared to traditional wind forecasting techniques and to a simple persistence model.

  10. Rapid analysis of scattering from periodic dielectric structures using accelerated Cartesian expansions

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Baczewski, Andrew David; Miller, Nicholas C.; Shanker, Balasubramaniam

    2012-03-22

    Here, the analysis of fields in periodic dielectric structures arise in numerous applications of recent interest, ranging from photonic bandgap structures and plasmonically active nanostructures to metamaterials. To achieve an accurate representation of the fields in these structures using numerical methods, dense spatial discretization is required. This, in turn, affects the cost of analysis, particularly for integral-equation-based methods, for which traditional iterative methods require Ο(Ν2) operations, Ν being the number of spatial degrees of freedom. In this paper, we introduce a method for the rapid solution of volumetric electric field integral equations used in the analysis of doubly periodic dielectricmore » structures. The crux of our method is the accelerated Cartesian expansion algorithm, which is used to evaluate the requisite potentials in Ο(Ν) cost. Results are provided that corroborate our claims of acceleration without compromising accuracy, as well as the application of our method to a number of compelling photonics applications.« less

  11. Transaction-Based Operation of Resource Constrained Systems

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    VFD Fan Weather (optionally used to forecast PV output and weather-dependent loads) ... c urrent a nd f orecast p rices - Forecast p eriod a djustable ( e.g., h our a ...

  12. Physics Division progress report for period ending September 30, 1990

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Livingston, A.B.

    1991-03-01

    The activities of this Division continue to be concentrated in the areas of experimental nuclear physics, experimental atomic physics, and theoretical nuclear and atomic physics. The Holifield Heavy Ion Research Facility and its operation as a national user facility continued as the single largest activity within the Division. The experimental nuclear physics program continues to emphasize heavy ion studies, with much of the activity centered at the Holifield Facility. The work with heavy ions at ultrarelativistic energies continues at the CERN SPS. Studies at the Brookhaven AGS, particularly in preparation of future experiments at RHIC, have seen an increased emphasis. A major consortium has been formed to propose the design and construction of a dimuon detector as the basis for one the principal experiments for RHIC. Also included are results from the increasing effort in particle physics, including participation in the L* proposal for the SSC. The UNISOR program, since its inception, has been associated intimately with the Division and, most particularly, with the Holifield Facility. A major area of experimental research for the Division is atomic physics. This activity comprises two groups: one on accelerator-based atomic physics, centered primarily at the EN-tandem and the Holifield Facility, but extending this year to an experiment at ultrarelativistic energies at the CERN SPS; and one on atomic physics in support of fusion energy, based primarily at the ECR ion source facility. Included in this section is also a description of a new effort in multicharged ion-surface interactions, and details of a planned upgrade of the ECR source.

  13. Development of an Immersed Boundary Method to Resolve Complex Terrain in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lunquist, K A; Chow, F K; Lundquist, J K; Mirocha, J D

    2007-09-04

    Flow and dispersion processes in urban areas are profoundly influenced by the presence of buildings which divert mean flow, affect surface heating and cooling, and alter the structure of turbulence in the lower atmosphere. Accurate prediction of velocity, temperature, and turbulent kinetic energy fields are necessary for determining the transport and dispersion of scalars. Correct predictions of scalar concentrations are vital in densely populated urban areas where they are used to aid in emergency response planning for accidental or intentional releases of hazardous substances. Traditionally, urban flow simulations have been performed by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes which can accommodate the geometric complexity inherent to urban landscapes. In these types of models the grid is aligned with the solid boundaries, and the boundary conditions are applied to the computational nodes coincident with the surface. If the CFD code uses a structured curvilinear mesh, then time-consuming manual manipulation is needed to ensure that the mesh conforms to the solid boundaries while minimizing skewness. If the CFD code uses an unstructured grid, then the solver cannot be optimized for the underlying data structure which takes an irregular form. Unstructured solvers are therefore often slower and more memory intensive than their structured counterparts. Additionally, urban-scale CFD models are often forced at lateral boundaries with idealized flow, neglecting dynamic forcing due to synoptic scale weather patterns. These CFD codes solve the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations and include limited options for representing atmospheric processes such as surface fluxes and moisture. Traditional CFD codes therefore posses several drawbacks, due to the expense of either creating the grid or solving the resulting algebraic system of equations, and due to the idealized boundary conditions and the lack of full atmospheric physics. Meso-scale atmospheric boundary layer simulations, on the other hand, are performed by numerical weather prediction (NWP) codes, which cannot handle the geometry of the urban landscape, but do provide a more complete representation of atmospheric physics. NWP codes typically use structured grids with terrain-following vertical coordinates, include a full suite of atmospheric physics parameterizations, and allow for dynamic synoptic scale lateral forcing through grid nesting. Terrain following grids are unsuitable for urban terrain, as steep terrain gradients cause extreme distortion of the computational cells. In this work, we introduce and develop an immersed boundary method (IBM) to allow the favorable properties of a numerical weather prediction code to be combined with the ability to handle complex terrain. IBM uses a non-conforming structured grid, and allows solid boundaries to pass through the computational cells. As the terrain passes through the mesh in an arbitrary manner, the main goal of the IBM is to apply the boundary condition on the interior of the domain as accurately as possible. With the implementation of the IBM, numerical weather prediction codes can be used to explicitly resolve urban terrain. Heterogeneous urban domains using the IBM can be nested into larger mesoscale domains using a terrain-following coordinate. The larger mesoscale domain provides lateral boundary conditions to the urban domain with the correct forcing, allowing seamless integration between mesoscale and urban scale models. Further discussion of the scope of this project is given by Lundquist et al. [2007]. The current paper describes the implementation of an IBM into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open source numerical weather prediction code. The WRF model solves the non-hydrostatic compressible Navier-Stokes equations, and employs an isobaric terrain-following vertical coordinate. Many types of IB methods have been developed by researchers; a comprehensive review can be found in Mittal and Iaccarino [2005]. To the authors knowledge, this is the first IBM approach that is able to

  14. The transition mechanism from a symmetric single period discharge to a period-doubling discharge in atmospheric helium dielectric-barrier discharge

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Dingzong; Wang, Yanhui; Wang, Dezhen [School of Physics and Optoelectronic Technology, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)] [School of Physics and Optoelectronic Technology, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2013-06-15

    Period-doubling and chaos phenomenon have been frequently observed in atmospheric-pressure dielectric-barrier discharges. However, how a normal single period discharge bifurcates into period-doubling state is still unclear. In this paper, by changing the driving frequency, we study numerically the transition mechanisms from a normal single period discharge to a period-doubling state using a one-dimensional self-consistent fluid model. The results show that before a discharge bifurcates into a period-doubling state, it first deviates from its normal operation and transforms into an asymmetric single period discharge mode. Then the weaker discharge in this asymmetric discharge will be enhanced gradually with increasing of the frequency until it makes the subsequent discharge weaken and results in the discharge entering a period-doubling state. In the whole transition process, the spatial distribution of the charged particle density and the electric field plays a definitive role. The conclusions are further confirmed by changing the gap width and the amplitude of the applied voltage.

  15. DOE/EIS-0463 and EIS-0463-S1: EPA Notice of Public Comment Period...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOEEIS-0463 and EIS-0463-S1: EPA Notice of Public Comment Period Extension DOEEIS-0463 and EIS-0463-S1: EPA Notice of Public Comment Period Extension Northern Pass Transmission...

  16. DOE/EIS-0463 and EIS-0463-S1: EPA Notice of Public Comment Period...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOEEIS-0463 and EIS-0463-S1: EPA Notice of Public Comment Period Extension DOEEIS-0463 and EIS-0463-S1: EPA Notice of Public Comment Period Extension Northern Pass Transmission ...

  17. World Geothermal Power Generation in the Period 2001-2005 | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    in the Period 2001-2005 Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Journal Article: World Geothermal Power Generation in the Period 2001-2005 Abstract A...

  18. B&W Request for extension of DOE CSC Rule Comment Period 02 24...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    B&W Request for extension of DOE CSC Rule Comment Period 02 24 2015 B&W Request for extension of DOE CSC Rule Comment Period 02 24 2015 PDF icon B&W Request for extension of DOE ...

  19. Property:Building/SPPurchasedEngyForPeriodMwhYrNaturalGas | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    gyForPeriodMwhYrNaturalGas Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type String. Natural gas Pages using the property "BuildingSPPurchasedEngyForPeriodMwhYrNaturalGas"...

  20. Mirant: Summary of Monitored SO2 Concentrations During Periods of Highest

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Impact | Department of Energy Mirant: Summary of Monitored SO2 Concentrations During Periods of Highest Impact Mirant: Summary of Monitored SO2 Concentrations During Periods of Highest Impact Docket No. EO-05-01: Tables showing a summary of monitored SO2 concentrations during periods of highest impact as well as ERMOD modeling results for SO2 scenarios. PDF icon Mirant: Summary of Monitored SO2 Concentrations During Periods of Highest Impact More Documents & Publications Answer of

  1. DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION FISSION REACTOR FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 1, 2001 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30, 2001

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    L.C. BROWN

    2001-09-30

    OAK-B135 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION FISSION REACTOR FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 1, 2001 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30, 2001

  2. PERIODIC VARIATIONS IN THE O - C DIAGRAMS OF FIVE PULSATION FREQUENCIES OF THE DB WHITE DWARF EC 20058-5234

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dalessio, J.; Provencal, J. L.; Shipman, H. L.; Sullivan, D. J.; Sullivan, T.; Kilkenny, D.; Fraga, L.; Sefako, R.

    2013-03-01

    Variations in the pulsation arrival time of five independent pulsation frequencies of the DB white dwarf EC 20058-5234 individually imitate the effects of reflex motion induced by a planet or companion but are inconsistent when considered in unison. The pulsation frequencies vary periodically in a 12.9 year cycle and undergo secular changes that are inconsistent with simple neutrino plus photon-cooling models. The magnitude of the periodic and secular variations increases with the period of the pulsations, possibly hinting that the corresponding physical mechanism is located near the surface of the star. The phase of the periodic variations appears coupled to the sign of the secular variations. The standards for pulsation-timing-based detection of planetary companions around pulsating white dwarfs, and possibly other variables such as subdwarf B stars, should be re-evaluated. The physical mechanism responsible for this surprising result may involve a redistribution of angular momentum or a magnetic cycle. Additionally, variations in a supposed combination frequency are shown to match the sum of the variations of the parent frequencies to remarkable precision, an expected but unprecedented confirmation of theoretical predictions.

  3. Emergency Diesel Generation System Surveillance Test Policy Optimization Through Genetic Algorithms Using Non-Periodic Intervention Frequencies and Seasonal Constraints

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lapa, Celso M.F.; Pereira, Claudio M.N.A. [CNEN, Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear, Rua General Severiano 90, Rio de Janeiro, RJ-22-294-900 (Brazil); Frutuoso e Melo, P.F. [COPPE/UFRJ, Cidade Universitaria, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco G, sala 101, Ilha do Fundao, 21945-970, Rio de Janeiro - RJ (Brazil)

    2002-07-01

    Nuclear standby safety systems must frequently, be submitted to periodic surveillance tests. The main reason is to detect, as soon as possible, the occurrence of unrevealed failure states. Such interventions may, however, affect the overall system availability due to component outages. Besides, as the components are demanded, deterioration by aging may occur, penalizing again the system performance. By these reasons, planning a good surveillance test policy implies in a trade-off between gains and overheads due to the surveillance test interventions. In order maximize the systems average availability during a given period of time, it has recently been developed a non-periodic surveillance test optimization methodology based on genetic algorithms (GA). The fact of allowing non-periodic tests turns the solution space much more flexible and schedules can be better adjusted, providing gains in the overall system average availability, when compared to those obtained by an optimized periodic tests scheme. The optimization problem becomes, however, more complex. Hence, the use of a powerful optimization technique, such as GAs, is required. Some particular features of certain systems can turn it advisable to introduce other specific constraints in the optimization problem. The Emergency Diesel Generation System (EDGS) of a Nuclear Power Plant (N-PP) is a good example for demonstrating the introduction of seasonal constraints in the optimization problem. This system is responsible for power supply during an external blackout. Therefore, it is desirable during periods of high blackout probability to maintain the system availability as high as possible. Previous applications have demonstrated the robustness and effectiveness of the methodology. However, no seasonal constraints have ever been imposed. This work aims at investigating the application of such methodology in the Angra-II Brazilian NPP EDGS surveillance test policy optimization, considering the blackout probability growth during summer, due to the electrical power demand increase. Here, the model used penalizes test interventions by a continuous modulating function, which depends on the instantaneous blackout probability. Results have demonstrated the ability of the method in adapting the surveillance tests policy to seasonal behaviors. The knowledge acquired by the GA during the searching process has lead to test schedules that drastically minimize the test interventions at periods of high blackout probability. It is compensated by more frequent tests redistributed through the periods of low blackout probability, in order to provide improvement on the overall average availability at the system level. (authors)

  4. NEI Request for Extension of Public Comment Period DOE-HQ-201.... |

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Department of Energy Request for Extension of Public Comment Period DOE-HQ-201.... NEI Request for Extension of Public Comment Period DOE-HQ-201.... PDF icon 2015 01 28 NEI Request for Extension of Public Comment Period DOE-HQ-201... More Documents & Publications NOPR NEI Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) Ex Parte NOPR Fluor

  5. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is delayed and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  6. Physics Division progress report for period ending September 30, 1987

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Livingston, A.B. (ed.)

    1988-03-01

    The activities of this Division are concentrated in the areas of experimental nuclear physics, experimental atomic physics, and theoretical nuclear and atomic physics. A major activity within the Division is operation of the Holifield Heavy Ion Research Facility as a national user facility. Highlights for this year, which include a record number of beam hours provided for research, are summarized. The experimental nuclear physics program continues to be dominated by research utilizing heavy ions. These activities, while continuing to center largely on the Holifield Facility, have seen growth in the use of facilities that provide intermediate energies (GANIL) and ultrarelativistic beams (CERN). The UNISOR program, since its inception, has been intimately associated with the Division and, most particularly, with the Holifield Facility. The experimental nuclear structure research of this consortium is included. In addition to the Holifield Facility, the Division also operates two smaller facilities, the EN Tandem and the ECR Ion Source Facility, as /open quotes/User Resources/close quotes/. The tandem continues a long history of supporting research in accelerator-based atomic physics. During this past year, new beam lines have been added to the ECR ion source to create user opportunities for atomic physics experiments with this unique device. These two facilities and the experimental programs in atomic physics are discussed. The efforts in theoretical physics, covering both nuclear and atomic physics, are presented. Also included is the theory effort in support of the UNISOR structure program. In addition to research with multicharged heavy ions from the ECR source, the effort on atomic physics in support of the controlled fusion program includes a plasma diagnostics development program and operation of an atomic physics data center. The nuclear physics program also operates a compilation and evaluation effort; this work is also described.

  7. Coal data book. [Historical data for periods of 10 to 50 years

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1980-02-01

    Coal Data Book is a data compilation on coal production and consumption assembled by the President's Commission on Coal (Historical trends and forecasts to 1985 and 1990). The President's Commission on Coal was established by Executive Order on May 26, 1978 and ended on March 15, 1980. The Commission conducted a comprehensive and independent review of the coal industry with particular emphasis on four areas: the future of the coal industry, labor-management relations, living conditions of coal miners, and the effects of government regulations on the production and utilization of coal. Other publications issued by the Commission and available through the US Government Printing Office are: The Americal Coal Miner, an illustrated book on living conditions of coal miners and their families, and Recommendations and Summary Findings of The President's Commission on Coal, the Commission's final report to President Carter.

  8. Periodicity, Electronic Structures, and Bonding of Gold Tetrahalides [AuX4](-) (X = F, CI, Br, I, At, Uus)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Wan-Lu; Li, Yong; Xu, Congqiao; Wang, Xue B.; Vorpagel, Erich R.; Li, Jun

    2015-12-07

    Systematic theoretical and experimental investigations have been performed to understand the periodicity and electronic structures of trivalent-gold halides using gold tetrahalides [AuX4]⁻ anions (X = F, Cl, Br, I, At, Uus). The [AuX4]⁻ (X = Cl, Br, I) anions were produced in gas phase and their negative-ion photoelectron spectra were obtained, which exhibited rich and well-resolved spectral peaks. We calculated the adiabatic as well as vertical electron detachment energies using density functional methods with scalar and spin-orbit coupling relativistic effects. The simulated photoelectron spectra based on these calculations are in good agreement with the experimental spectra. Our results show that the trivalent Au(III) oxidation state becomes progressively less stable while Au(I) is preferred when the halides become heavier along the Period Table. This trend reveals that the oxidation state of metals in complexes can be manipulated through ligand design

  9. Characterizing Composition Modulations in InAs/AIAs Short-Period Superlattices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ahrenkiel, S.P.; Follstaedt, D.M.; Jones, E.D.; Lee, S.R.; Mascarenhas, A.; Millunchick, J. Mirecki; Norman, A.G.; Reno, J.L.; Twesten, R.D.

    1999-04-26

    The formation of quantum wires has much interest due to their novel electronic properties which may lead to enhanced optoelectronic device performance and greater photovoltaic efficiencies. One method of forming these structures is through spontaneous lateral modulation found during the epitaxial growth of III/V alloys. In this paper, we report and summarize our investigations on the formation of lateral moduation in the MBE grown InAlAs/InP(001) system. This system was grown as a short-period superlattice where n-monolayers of InAs are deposited followed by m-Monolayers of AlAs (with n and m~2) and this sequence is repeated to grown a low strain InAlAs ternary alloy on InP(001) that exhibits lateral modulation. Films were grown under a variety of condition (growth temperature, effective alloy composition, superlattice period, and growth rate). These films have been extensively analyzed using X-ray diffraction, atomic force microscopy, and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and microcharacterization, in addition to photon-based spectroscopes. Here we present results of several microstructural characterizations using a wide range of TEM-based techniques, and compare them to results from the other methods to obtain a unified understanding of composition modulation. Two strong points consistently emerge: 1) The lateral modulation wavelength is insensitive to growth temperature and effective alloy composition, but the strength of the lateral modulation is greatest near an effective alloy composition of In(0.46)Al(0.54)As, which corresponds to a slightly tensile global strain with respect to InP. 2) The composition variation for the strongly modulated films is as much as 0.38 InAs mole fraction. In addition, for these strongly modulated films, the modulation wave is asymmetric showing strongly peaked, narrower InAs-rich regions separated by flat AlAs-rich regions. We discuss these results and their possible implications in addition to detailing the techniques used to obtain them.

  10. Periodic analysis of solar activity and its link with the Arctic oscillation phenomenon

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qu, Weizheng; Li, Chun; Du, Ling; Huang, Fei [Ocean University of China, 14-1'-601, 2117 Jinshui Road, Qingdao 266100 (China); Li, Yanfang, E-mail: quweizhe@ouc.edu.cn [Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research Chinese Academy of Sciences (China)

    2014-12-01

    Based on spectrum analysis, we provide the arithmetic expressions of the quasi 11 yr cycle, 110 yr century cycle of relative sunspot numbers, and quasi 22 yr cycle of solar magnetic field polarity. Based on a comparative analysis of the monthly average geopotential height, geopotential height anomaly, and temperature anomaly of the northern hemisphere at locations with an air pressure of 500 HPa during the positive and negative phases of AO (Arctic Oscillation), one can see that the abnormal warming period in the Arctic region corresponds to the negative phase of AO, while the anomalous cold period corresponds to its positive phase. This shows that the abnormal change in the Arctic region is an important factor in determining the anomalies of AO. In accordance with the analysis performed using the successive filtering method, one can see that the AO phenomenon occurring in January shows a clear quasi 88 yr century cycle and quasi 22 yr decadal cycle, which are closely related to solar activities. The results of our comparative analysis show that there is a close inverse relationship between the solar activities (especially the solar magnetic field index changes) and the changes in the 22 yr cycle of the AO occurring in January, and that the two trends are basically opposite of each other. That is to say, in most cases after the solar magnetic index MI rises from the lowest value, the solar magnetic field turns from north to south, and the high-energy particle flow entering the Earth's magnetosphere increases to heat the polar atmosphere, thus causing the AO to drop from the highest value; after the solar magnetic index MI drops from the highest value, the solar magnetic field turns from south to north, and the solar high-energy particle flow passes through the top of the Earth's magnetosphere rather than entering it to heat the polar atmosphere. Thus the polar temperature drops, causing the AO to rise from the lowest value. In summary, the variance contribution rate of the changes in the quasi 110 yr century cycle and quasi 22 yr decadal cycle for the AO reaches 62.9%, indicating that solar activity is an important driving factor of the AO.

  11. Technical and economic assessments of electrochemical energy storage systems: Volume 6, Zinc-Bromide battery plant description, cost estimate credible accident and efficiency assessment: Part 1, Energy Research Corporation battery design: Final report for the period September 1978-May 1985

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abraham, J.; Binas, G.; Del Monaco, J.L.; Pandya, D.A.; Sharp, T.E.

    1985-06-05

    This document describes the ERC zinc-bromide battery module as the basic unit in the development of a battery load-leveling facility that will accumulate the output of base-load generation during periods of low demand and provide power for periods of high demands. (DLC)

  12. Space charge effects with periodic focusing (Journal Article) | SciTech

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Connect Space charge effects with periodic focusing Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Space charge effects with periodic focusing The dielectric response of a charged particle beam to a periodic focusing field enhances the effective focusing strength of the channel, reducing the matched beam radius and affecting the motion of halo particles. The dielectric response depends on the shape of the beam, the type of focusing and the ratio of the plasma frequency of the beam to the

  13. DOE Extends Comment Period for Reply Comments on Reducing Regulatory Burden

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    | Department of Energy Extends Comment Period for Reply Comments on Reducing Regulatory Burden DOE Extends Comment Period for Reply Comments on Reducing Regulatory Burden March 31, 2011 - 5:13pm Addthis The Department of Energy today announces an extension of the reply comment period for its Request for Information implementing Executive Order 13563, seeking public comment on how best to review its existing regulations. The Department is interested in receiving comment on the suggestions and

  14. NuScale Power Request for Extension of Public Comment Period | Department

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    of Energy NuScale Power Request for Extension of Public Comment Period NuScale Power Request for Extension of Public Comment Period PDF icon NuScale Power Request for Extension of Public Comment Period More Documents & Publications CX-011842: Categorical Exclusion Determination CSC_Extension.PDF Assessment of Small Modular Reactor Suitability for Use On or Near Air Force Space Command Installations SAND 2016-2600

  15. EA-1880: Notice of Public Comment Period Extension | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    80: Notice of Public Comment Period Extension EA-1880: Notice of Public Comment Period Extension Big Bend to Witten Transmission Line, South Dakota The USDA Rural Utilities Service extended the public comment period for the draft EA it issued on January 28, 2015 to March 30, 2015. For more information on this project, including actions that DOE's Western Area Power Administration proposes as part of this proposed Project, see the project webpage:

  16. EIS-0431: Extension of public comment period; Notice of public hearing

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    (Correction) | Department of Energy public comment period; Notice of public hearing (Correction) EIS-0431: Extension of public comment period; Notice of public hearing (Correction) Hydrogen Energy California's Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle and Carbon Capture and Sequestration Project, CA On Monday, August 26, 2013, DOE published a Notice of Extension of Public Comment Period and Public Hearing for the Hydrogen Energy California's Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Project

  17. EIS-0486: DOE Notice of Public Comment Period Extension | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Public Comment Period Extension EIS-0486: DOE Notice of Public Comment Period Extension Plains & Eastern Clean Line Transmission Project DOE is extending the public comment period for the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Plains & Eastern Clean Line Transmission Project (DOE/EIS-0486) to April 20, 2015. Comments submitted to DOE concerning the Plains & Eastern EIS prior to this announcement do not need to be resubmitted as a result of this extension of the

  18. EIS-0486: EPA Notice of Public Comment Period Extension | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Public Comment Period Extension EIS-0486: EPA Notice of Public Comment Period Extension Plains & Eastern Clean Line Transmission Project EPA announces that the DOE is extending the public comment period for the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Plains & Eastern Clean Line Transmission Project (DOE/EIS-0486) to April 20, 2015. Comments submitted to DOE concerning the Plains & Eastern EIS prior to this announcement do not need to be resubmitted as a result of this

  19. 2016 Benefits Online Open Enrollment Period Starts Today, February 10, 2016

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    | Jefferson Lab 2016 Benefits Online Open Enrollment Period Starts Today, February 10, 2016 2016 Benefits Online Open Enrollment Period Starts Today, February 10, 2016 Attention All Regular and Term Employees: The 2016 Benefits Online Open Enrollment Period for Jefferson Lab starts today, February 10, 2016, and will be offered through Tuesday, February 23, 2016. This is your opportunity to review and, if necessary, modify your benefits options. Below are a few reminders concerning the Open

  20. EIS-0504: Notice of Extension of Scoping Period | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Extension of Scoping Period EIS-0504: Notice of Extension of Scoping Period Gulf LNG Liquefaction Project, Jackson County, Mississippi FERC extended the scoping period to September 15, 2014. For more information on this project, see the project page: http://energy.gov/node/948516. Download Document PDF icon EIS-0504: Notice of Intent to Prepare Environmental Impact Statement More Documents & Publications EIS-0512: Notice of Public Scoping Meetings EIS-0512: Notice of Public Scoping Meetings

  1. Computer-based and web-based radiation safety training

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Owen, C., LLNL

    1998-03-01

    The traditional approach to delivering radiation safety training has been to provide a stand-up lecture of the topic, with the possible aid of video, and to repeat the same material periodically. New approaches to meeting training requirements are needed to address the advent of flexible work hours and telecommuting, and to better accommodate individuals learning at their own pace. Computer- based and web-based radiation safety training can provide this alternative. Computer-based and web- based training is an interactive form of learning that the student controls, resulting in enhanced and focused learning at a time most often chosen by the student.

  2. Performance Period

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Reactive Barrier: Cotter Corporation's Cañon City, Colorado, Uranium Mill | Department of Energy Assessment and Recommendations for Rejuvenation of a Permeable Reactive Barrier: Cotter Corporation's Cañon City, Colorado, Uranium Mill Performance Assessment and Recommendations for Rejuvenation of a Permeable Reactive Barrier: Cotter Corporation's Cañon City, Colorado, Uranium Mill Performance Assessment and Recommendations for Rejuvenation of a Permeable Reactive Barrier: Cotter

  3. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod7FAdj | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 7 Fuel Adj Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProper...

  4. EIS-0426: Notice of Extension of Public Comment Period for the...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    More Documents & Publications EIS-0426: Notice of Extension of Comment Period EIS-0403-S1: EPA Notice of Availability of the Supplement to the Draft Programmatic Environmental...

  5. Rooftop Solar Challenge Award Number: DE-EE0000549 Project Period

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Arizona Rooftop Solar Challenge Award Number: DE-EE0000549 Project Period December 1, 2011 ... Policy September 30, 2013 Arizona Rooftop Solar Challenge Final Report Table of Contents ...

  6. Public Comment Period for Portsmouth Site D&D and Waste Disposition Decisions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Public Comment Period for the Process Buildings and Complex Facilities Decontamination and Decommissioning and Site-Wide Waste Disposition Decisions at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant

  7. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod8 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 8 Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProperty:OpenEI...

  8. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod3FAdj | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 3 Fuel Adj Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProper...

  9. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod6 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 6 Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProperty:OpenEI...

  10. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod4FAdj | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 4 Fuel Adj Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProper...

  11. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod8FAdj | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 8 Fuel Adj Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProper...

  12. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod4 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 4 Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProperty:OpenEI...

  13. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod6FAdj | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 6 Fuel Adj Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProper...

  14. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod7 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 7 Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProperty:OpenEI...

  15. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod1FAdj | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 1 Fuel Adj Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProper...

  16. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod3 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 3 Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProperty:OpenEI...

  17. Proposed rule: re-opening of public comment period | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Proposed rule: re-opening of public comment period Proposed rule: re-opening of public comment period Proposed rule: re-opening of public comment period. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is re-opening the public comment period for proposed amendments to its regulations governing compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), made available for public comment on January 3, 2011 (76 FR 214). This is being done in response to a request on behalf of multiple organizations PDF icon

  18. EIS-0350-S1: Extension of the Public Review and Comment Period...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Period and Announcement of an Additional Public Hearing for the Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement for the Nuclear Facility Portion of the Chemistry and...

  19. EIS-0466: Re-opening of Public Scoping Period and Announcement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Continued Operation of the Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico Comment Period Ends: ... Impact Statement (SWEIS) for the Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico (DOEEIS-0466). ...

  20. EIS-0250-S1: Notice of Public Comment Period Extension and Additional...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Notice of Public Comment Period Extension and Additional Public Meeting Geologic Repository for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste at Yucca...

  1. A Low-Cost, High-Efficiency Periodic Flow Gas Turbine for Distributed Energy Generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dr. Adam London

    2008-06-20

    The proposed effort served as a feasibility study for an innovative, low-cost periodic flow gas turbine capable of realizing efficiencies in the 39-48% range.

  2. Timeline for HWMs and Above-RHWM Elections (2nd Purchase Period...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    BPA updates contract with customer election for 4 th Purchase Period Source: Exhibit C, section 2 For Load Following customers, BPA updates contract with Tier 2 purchase and...

  3. Effects of confinement on short-period surface waves: Observations from a new dataset

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hooper, H.; Bonner, J.; Leidig, M.

    2006-04-15

    The Source Phenomenology Experiment (SPE) was conducted during the summer of 2003 in Arizona. Single-fired chemical shots were detonated and recorded at two locations, including a coal mine in the Black Mesa district of northern Arizona. This article reports on research into the effects of confinement on the generation of short-period, fundamental-mode Rayleigh waves (Rg), using a subset of the SPE data. Results show important differences between the Rg amplitudes of confined and unconfined explosions which must be understood to develop discriminants for mining explosions, which are an important aspect of nuclear test monitoring. Rg energy and frequency content depend on explosive weight and confinement, and unconfined explosions generate up to eight times less energy than equivalent confined explosions. For this reason, unconfined mining explosions cannot be simulated using a Mueller and Murphy (1971) source without including an empirical chemical decoupling factor. Rg chemical decoupling factors for unconfined shots vary from 0.5 to 8.2 at frequencies between 0.5 and 11 Hz. The effects of the bench free face are evident in radiation patterns. Explosions on the topographic bench show increased spectral energies for Rg (by a factor of 1.5) at azimuths behind the bench. This suggests that a discriminant based on the relative azimuthal spectral energies of Rg may be a possibility.

  4. Technical Letter Report: Evaluation and Analysis of a Few International Periodic Safety Review Summary Reports

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chopra, Omesh K.; Diercks, Dwight R.; Ma, David Chia-Chiun; Garud, Yogendra S.

    2013-12-17

    At the request of the United States (U.S.) government, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) assembled a team of 20 senior safety experts to review the regulatory framework for the safety of operating nuclear power plants in the United States. This review focused on the effectiveness of the regulatory functions implemented by the NRC and on its commitment to nuclear safety and continuous improvement. One suggestion resulting from that review was that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) incorporate lessons learned from periodic safety reviews (PSRs) performed in other countries as an input to the NRC’s assessment processes. In the U.S., commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) are granted an initial 40-year operating license, which may be renewed for additional 20-year periods, subject to complying with regulatory requirements. The NRC has established a framework through its inspection, and operational experience processes to ensure the safe operation of licensed nuclear facilities on an ongoing basis. In contrast, most other countries do not impose a specific time limit on the operating licenses for NPPs, they instead require that the utility operating the plant perform PSRs, typically at approximately 10-year intervals, to assure continued safe operation until the next assessment. The staff contracted with Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) to perform a pilot review of selected translated PSR assessment reports and related documentation from foreign nuclear regulatory authorities to identify any potential new regulatory insights regarding license renewal-related topics and NPP operating experience (OpE). A total of 14 PSR assessment documents from 9 countries were reviewed. For all of the countries except France, individual reports were provided for each of the plants reviewed. In the case of France, three reports were provided that reviewed the performance assessment of thirty-four 900-MWe reactors of similar design commissioned between 1978 and 1988. All of the reports reviewed were the regulator’s assessment of the PSR findings rather than the original PSR report, and all but one were English translations from the original language. In these reviews, it was found that most of the countries base their regulatory guidance to some extent (and often to a large extent) on U.S. design codes and standards, NRC regulatory guidance, and U.S. industry guidance. In addition, many of the observed operational technical issues and OpE events reported for U.S. reactors are also cited in the PSR reports. The PSR reports also identified a number of potential technical material/component performance issues and OpE events that are not commonly reported for U.S. plants.

  5. LARGE-SCALE PERIODIC VARIABILITY OF THE WIND OF THE WOLF-RAYET STAR WR 1 (HD 4004)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chene, A.-N.

    2010-06-20

    We present the results of an intensive photometric and spectroscopic monitoring campaign of the WN4 Wolf-Rayet (WR) star WR 1 = HD 4004. Our broadband V photometry covering a timespan of 91 days shows variability with a period of P = 16.9{sup +0.6}{sub -0.3} days. The same period is also found in our spectral data. The light curve is non-sinusoidal with hints of a gradual change in its shape as a function of time. The photometric variations nevertheless remain coherent over several cycles and we estimate that the coherence timescale of the light curve is of the order of 60 days. The spectroscopy shows large-scale line-profile variability which can be interpreted as excess emission peaks moving from one side of the profile to the other on a timescale of several days. Although we cannot unequivocally exclude the unlikely possibility that WR 1 is a binary, we propose that the nature of the variability we have found strongly suggests that it is due to the presence in the wind of the WR star of large-scale structures, most likely corotating interaction regions (CIRs), which are predicted to arise in inherently unstable radiatively driven winds when they are perturbed at their base. We also suggest that variability observed in WR 6, WR 134, and WR 137 is of the same nature. Finally, assuming that the period of CIRs is related to the rotational period, we estimate the rotation rate of the four stars for which sufficient monitoring has been carried out, i.e., v{sub rot} = 6.5, 40, 70, and 275 km s{sup -1} for WR 1, WR 6, WR 134, and WR 137, respectively.

  6. A survey for very short-period planets in the Kepler data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jackson, Brian; Stark, Christopher C.; Chambers, John; Adams, Elisabeth R.; Deming, Drake

    2013-12-20

    We conducted a search for very short-period transiting objects in the publicly available Kepler data set. Our preliminary survey has revealed four planetary candidates, all with orbital periods less than 12 hr. We have analyzed the data for these candidates using photometric models that include transit light curves, ellipsoidal variations, and secondary eclipses to constrain the candidates' radii, masses, and effective temperatures. Even with masses of only a few Earth masses, the candidates' short periods mean that they may induce stellar radial velocity signals (a few m s{sup 1}) detectable by currently operating facilities. The origins of such short-period planets are unclear, but we discuss the possibility that they may be the remnants of disrupted hot Jupiters. Whatever their origins, if confirmed as planets, these candidates would be among the shortest-period planets ever discovered. Such planets would be particularly amenable to discovery by the planned TESS mission.

  7. Formation of laser-induced periodic surface structures on niobium by femtosecond laser irradiation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pan, A.; Dias, A.; Gomez-Aranzadi, M.; Olaizola, S. M.; Rodriguez, A.

    2014-05-07

    The surface morphology of a Niobium sample, irradiated in air by a femtosecond laser with a wavelength of 800 nm and pulse duration of 100 fs, was examined. The period of the micro/nanostructures, parallel and perpendicularly oriented to the linearly polarized fs-laser beam, was studied by means of 2D Fast Fourier Transform analysis. The observed Laser-Induced Periodic Surface Structures (LIPSS) were classified as Low Spatial Frequency LIPSS (periods about 600 nm) and High Spatial Frequency LIPSS, showing a periodicity around 300 nm, both of them perpendicularly oriented to the polarization of the incident laser wave. Moreover, parallel high spatial frequency LIPSS were observed with periods around 100 nm located at the peripheral areas of the laser fingerprint and overwritten on the perpendicular periodic gratings. The results indicate that this method of micro/nanostructuring allows controlling the Niobium grating period by the number of pulses applied, so the scan speed and not the fluence is the key parameter of control. A discussion on the mechanism of the surface topology evolution was also introduced.

  8. Microsoft Word - Draft EBT Analysis_Alcoa -10.10.12 _REDLINE...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING JANUARY 1, 2013 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30, 2022 ... 2 IV. GAS PRICE FORECAST......

  9. Reconstruction of spatial patterns of climatic anomalies during the medieval warm period (AD 900-1300)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diaz, H.F.; Hughes, M.K.

    1992-12-31

    The workshop will focus on climatic variations during the Medieval Warm Period or Little Climatic Optimum. The nominal time interval assigned to this period is AD 900--1300, but climate information available during the century or two preceding and following this episode is welcome. The aims of the workshop will be to: examine the available evidence for the existence of this episode; assess the spatial and temporal synchronicity of the climatic signals; discuss possible forcing mechanisms; and identify areas and paleoenvironmental records where additional research efforts are needed to improve our knowledge of this period. This document consists of abstracts of eighteen papers presented at the meeting.

  10. DOE/EIS-0463 and EIS-0463-S1: EPA Notice of Public Comment Period Extension

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    | Department of Energy DOE/EIS-0463 and EIS-0463-S1: EPA Notice of Public Comment Period Extension DOE/EIS-0463 and EIS-0463-S1: EPA Notice of Public Comment Period Extension Northern Pass Transmission Line Project, New Hampshire EPA announces that DOE has extended the public comment period for the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Northern Pass Transmission Line Project (DOE/EIS-0463) to April 4, 2016. Comments submitted to DOE concerning the Northern Pass Draft EIS prior to this

  11. TWINS: THE TWO SHORTEST PERIOD NON-INTERACTING DOUBLE DEGENERATE WHITE

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    DWARF STARS (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect TWINS: THE TWO SHORTEST PERIOD NON-INTERACTING DOUBLE DEGENERATE WHITE DWARF STARS Citation Details In-Document Search Title: TWINS: THE TWO SHORTEST PERIOD NON-INTERACTING DOUBLE DEGENERATE WHITE DWARF STARS We report on the detection of the two shortest period non-interacting white dwarf binary systems. These systems, SDSS J143633.29+501026.8 and SDSS J105353.89+520031.0, were identified by searching for radial velocity variations in the

  12. Hawaii Energy Strategy: Program guide. [Contains special sections on analytical energy forecasting, renewable energy resource assessment, demand-side energy management, energy vulnerability assessment, and energy strategy integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-09-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy program, or HES, is a set of seven projects which will produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. It will include a comprehensive energy vulnerability assessment with recommended courses of action to decrease Hawaii's energy vulnerability and to better prepare for an effective response to any energy emergency or supply disruption. The seven projects are designed to increase understanding of Hawaii's energy situation and to produce recommendations to achieve the State energy objectives of: Dependable, efficient, and economical state-wide energy systems capable of supporting the needs of the people, and increased energy self-sufficiency. The seven projects under the Hawaii Energy Strategy program include: Project 1: Develop Analytical Energy Forecasting Model for the State of Hawaii. Project 2: Fossil Energy Review and Analysis. Project 3: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Development Program. Project 4: Demand-Side Management Program. Project 5: Transportation Energy Strategy. Project 6: Energy Vulnerability Assessment Report and Contingency Planning. Project 7: Energy Strategy Integration and Evaluation System.

  13. Implementation and assessment of turbine wake models in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for both mesoscale and large-eddy simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Singer, M; Mirocha, J; Lundquist, J; Cleve, J

    2010-03-03

    Flow dynamics in large wind projects are influenced by the turbines located within. The turbine wakes, regions characterized by lower wind speeds and higher levels of turbulence than the surrounding free stream flow, can extend several rotor diameters downstream, and may meander and widen with increasing distance from the turbine. Turbine wakes can also reduce the power generated by downstream turbines and accelerate fatigue and damage to turbine components. An improved understanding of wake formation and transport within wind parks is essential for maximizing power output and increasing turbine lifespan. Moreover, the influence of wakes from large wind projects on neighboring wind farms, agricultural activities, and local climate are all areas of concern that can likewise be addressed by wake modeling. This work describes the formulation and application of an actuator disk model for studying flow dynamics of both individual turbines and arrays of turbines within wind projects. The actuator disk model is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open-source atmospheric simulation code applicable to a wide range of scales, from mesoscale to large-eddy simulation. Preliminary results demonstrate the applicability of the actuator disk model within WRF to a moderately high-resolution large-eddy simulation study of a small array of turbines.

  14. EPICS BASE

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    002230MLTPL00 Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System BASE http://www.aps.anl.gov/epics

  15. Department of Energy Extends Comment Period on Proposed Revisions to its NEPA Rules

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Department of Energy today announced that,  in response to requests from a number of parties, it has re-opened the public comment period on its proposed revisions to the Department’s NEPA rules...

  16. Property:Building/SPPurchasedEngyForPeriodMwhYrOil-FiredBoiler...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    eriodMwhYrOil-FiredBoiler Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type String. Oil-fired boiler Pages using the property "BuildingSPPurchasedEngyForPeriodMwhYrOil-FiredB...

  17. EIS-0250-S2 and EIS-0369: Notice of Public Comment Period Extension...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    (DOEEIS-0369) (November 2006 - 71 FR 65785) More Documents & Publications EIS-0250-S1: Notice of Public Comment Period Extension and Additional Public Meeting EIS-0250-S2 and...

  18. World geothermal power generation in the period 2001-2005 | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    geothermal power generation in the period 2001-2005 Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Journal Article: World geothermal power generation in the...

  19. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/EnergyRateStructure/Period | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    This is a property of type Number. The allowed values for this property are: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Pages using the property "OpenEIUtilityRateEnergyRateStructurePeriod" Showing...

  20. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod9 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 9 Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProperty:OpenEIUtilityRate...

  1. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod9FAdj | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    FAdj Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 9 Fuel Adj Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProperty:OpenEI...

  2. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod2 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 2 Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProperty:OpenEIUtilityRate...

  3. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod5 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 5 Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProperty:OpenEIUtilityRate...

  4. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod5FAdj | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    FAdj Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 5 Fuel Adj Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProperty:OpenEI...

  5. Property:OpenEI/UtilityRate/DemandChargePeriod2FAdj | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    FAdj Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Name: Demand Charge Period 2 Fuel Adj Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProperty:OpenEI...

  6. Paleocene sea level movements with a 430,000 year quasi-periodic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Sea level movements with quasi-periodicity of 430,000 years are identified in the marine sedimentary units of the Eastern Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi, Alabama and...

  7. Modeling laser-induced periodic surface structures: Finite-difference time-domain feedback simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Skolski, J. Z. P. Vincenc Obona, J.; Römer, G. R. B. E.; Huis in 't Veld, A. J.

    2014-03-14

    A model predicting the formation of laser-induced periodic surface structures (LIPSSs) is presented. That is, the finite-difference time domain method is used to study the interaction of electromagnetic fields with rough surfaces. In this approach, the rough surface is modified by “ablation after each laser pulse,” according to the absorbed energy profile, in order to account for inter-pulse feedback mechanisms. LIPSSs with a periodicity significantly smaller than the laser wavelength are found to “grow” either parallel or orthogonal to the laser polarization. The change in orientation and periodicity follow from the model. LIPSSs with a periodicity larger than the wavelength of the laser radiation and complex superimposed LIPSS patterns are also predicted by the model.

  8. Property:Building/SPPurchasedEngyForPeriodMwhYrDstrtColg | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    rPeriodMwhYrDstrtColg" Showing 25 pages using this property. (previous 25) (next 25) S Sweden Building 05K0001 + 762.0 + Sweden Building 05K0002 + 322.0 + Sweden Building 05K0003 +...

  9. Property:Building/SPPurchasedEngyForPeriodMwhYrTotal | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    gyForPeriodMwhYrTotal" Showing 25 pages using this property. (previous 25) (next 25) S Sweden Building 05K0001 + 4228.0 + Sweden Building 05K0002 + 1501.1 + Sweden Building 05K0003...

  10. Application Periods Open for 2014 National Clean Energy Business Plan Competition's Regional Contests

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Energy Department today announced the opening of the application periods for six regional competitions that are part of the 2014 U.S. Department of Energy National Clean Energy Business Plan Competition.

  11. DOE Extends Comment Period on Notice of Inquiry Under the Energy...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    extension of the public comment period to November 30, 2010 on DOE's Notice of Inquiry (75 FR 43945) soliciting comment on the development of regulations to carry out section 934...

  12. Microsoft Word - BWCS Scorecard Third period FY 2014 Mar 9 2015...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    FY 14 Award Fee Determination Scorecard Contractor: B&W Conversion Services, LLC Contract: DE-AC30-11CC40015 Award Period: October 1, 2013 - September 30, 2014 Basis of Evaluation ...

  13. Fabrication and applications of sub-micron 2D and 3D periodic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    In-Document Search Title: Fabrication and applications of sub-micron 2D and 3D periodic carbon structures. Abstract not provided. Authors: Burckel, David Bruce ; Polsky, Ronen ;...

  14. DOE Extends Comment Period on Notice of Inquiry Under the Energy Independence and Security Act

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Today, in response to a formal request, General Counsel Scott Blake Harris approved a 30-day extension of the public comment period on DOE's Notice of Inquiry (75 FR 43945) soliciting comment on...

  15. DOE Extends Comment Period on Notice of Inquiry Under the Energy Independence and Security Act

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Today, in response to a formal request, General Counsel Scott Blake Harris approved a second and final extension of the public comment period to November 30, 2010 on DOE’s Notice of Inquiry (75 FR...

  16. DOE Extends Public Comment Period for the Draft Uranium Leasing Program Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today announced that the public comment period for the Draft Uranium Leasing Program Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (ULP PEIS) has been extended to May 31, 2013.

  17. Public Comment Period Re-Opened for the Uranium Leasing Program PEIS

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy is re-opening the public comment period for the Draft Uranium Leasing Program Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (ULP PEIS, DOE/EIS-0472) until July 1, 2013.

  18. ISSUANCE 2015-10-15: Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Furnaces; Comment Period Reopening

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Furnaces; Comment Period Reopening

  19. CEQ Extends Comment Period on Revised Draft Guidance on Consideration of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Effects of Climate Change in NEPA Reviews | Department of Energy Extends Comment Period on Revised Draft Guidance on Consideration of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Effects of Climate Change in NEPA Reviews CEQ Extends Comment Period on Revised Draft Guidance on Consideration of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Effects of Climate Change in NEPA Reviews February 20, 2015 - 11:03am Addthis The Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) has extended by 30 days the

  20. Notice of Extension of Public Comment Period for Application for Proposed

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Project for Clean Line Plains & Eastern Transmission Line: Federal Register Notice, Volume 80, No. 116 - Jun. 17, 2015 | Department of Energy Extension of Public Comment Period for Application for Proposed Project for Clean Line Plains & Eastern Transmission Line: Federal Register Notice, Volume 80, No. 116 - Jun. 17, 2015 Notice of Extension of Public Comment Period for Application for Proposed Project for Clean Line Plains & Eastern Transmission Line: Federal Register Notice,