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1

ORNL integrated forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.

Rizy, C.G.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water

3

Toward an Integrated Seasonal Forecasting System for South America  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: (i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and ...

C. A. S. Coelho; D. B. Stephenson; M. Balmaseda; F. J. Doblas-Reyes; G. J. van Oldenborgh

2006-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

4

Integrated Forecasting and Inventory Control for Seasonal Demand ...  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We present a data-driven forecasting technique with integrated inventory ... ponents of inventory management: the random demand is first estimated using ...

5

Integrated Forecasting and Inventory Control for Seasonal Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Mar 14, 2008 ... Abstract: We present a data-driven forecasting technique with integrated inventory control for seasonal data and compare it to the traditional ...

6

TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY AND TRANSPORTATION DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director DISCLAIMER This report was prepared by a California has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges

7

Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

Not Available

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of future contributions from various emerging transportation fuels and technologies is unknown. PotentiallyCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY AND TRANSPORTATION DIVISION B. B. Blevins Executive Director DISCLAIMER This report was prepared by a California

9

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Integration of Variable Generation Forecasting into System Operations: Current Practices and Future Requirements  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This project update provides the first output of the EPRI Bulk Renewable Integration Program Project P173-010, “Integration of Variable Generation Forecasts into System Operations.” This project, begun in 2013, aims to improve existing methods utilities/independent system operators (ISOs) use to integrate forecasts into system operations and develop new methods. This year’s goal was to identify current practices and future requirements. This was done by interacting with a wide ...

2013-12-11T23:59:59.000Z

11

Impact of a New Radiation Package, McRad, in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new radiation package, “McRad,” has become operational with cycle 32R2 of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). McRad includes an improved description of the land surface ...

J-J. Morcrette; H. W. Barker; J. N. S. Cole; M. J. Iacono; R. Pincus

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

William Nazaroff  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Seema, Brett C. Singer, and William W. Nazaroff. "Calibration of the Ogawa ozone passive sampler for aircraft cabins." Atmospheric Environment 65 (2013): 21-24. 2011 Apte,...

13

Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)  

SciTech Connect

Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Alison Williams  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Alison Williams Alison Williams Alison Williams Energy Efficiency Standards Group Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 1 Cyclotron Road MS 90R4000 Berkeley CA 94720 Office Location: 90-4042 (510) 495-2548 AAWilliams@lbl.gov This publications database is an ongoing project, and not all Division publications are represented here yet. Publications 2013 Meyers, Stephen, Alison A. Williams, and Peter Chan. Energy and Economic Impacts of U.S. Federal Energy and Water Conservation Standards Adopted From 1987 Through 2012. Berkeley : Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2013. Download: standards_1987-2012_impacts_overview_lbnl-6217e.pdf (1012.36 KB) Williams, Alison A., Edward L. Vine, Sarah K. Price, Andrew Sturges, and Gregory J. Rosenquist. The Cost of Enforcing Building Energy Codes: Phase

15

The Use of Digital Warping of Microwave Integrated Water Vapor Imagery to Improve Forecasts of Marine Extratropical Cyclones  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A technique is described in which forecasts of the locations of features associated with marine cyclones may be improved through the use of microwave integrated water vapor (IWV) imagery and image warping of forecast mesoscale model fields. Here, ...

G. David Alexander; James A. Weinman; J. L. Schols

1998-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

William Fisk  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

William J. Fisk William J. Fisk William Fisk Indoor Environment Group Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 1 Cyclotron Road MS 90R3058 Berkeley CA 94720 Office Location: 90-3058F (510) 486-5910 WJFisk@lbl.gov William Fisk is a Sr. Scientist (mechanical engineer) and is the leader of the Indoor Environment Group. He has more than 30 years of experience in research on the interrelated issues of building energy performance, ventilation, indoor environmental quality (IEQ), and occupant health and performance. His research focuses primarily on energy efficient methods of maintaining and improving ventilation and IEQ in commercial buildings and on quantifying the impacts of building ventilation and IEQ on health and performance. He is a fellow of ASHRAE, a member of the Academy of Indoor

17

Sylvia Williams  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Sylvia Williams Bus. Development Mgr. Global GTL Development, Shell International Gas, Ltd., UK This speaker was a visiting speaker who delivered a talk or talks on the date(s)...

18

Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

William Morrow  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Morrow Morrow William Morrow Sustainable Energy Systems Group Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 1 Cyclotron Road MS 90R2002 Berkeley CA 94720 Office Location: 90-2024L (510) 495-2027 WRMorrow@lbl.gov William R. Morrow, III is a Senior Scientific Engineering Associate in the Energy Analysis & Environmental Impacts Department at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and is a member of the Sustainable Energy Systems Group and the Emerging Technology Assessment Group. William's research is focused on how to reconcile complex environmental goals with social demands for energy services and sustainable economic development. His research focuses on evaluating large-scale energy infrastructures and systems such as the electric grid, residential, commercial, and

20

Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

SciTech Connect

As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Model documentation report: Short-term Integrated Forecasting System demand model 1985. [(STIFS)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) Demand Model consists of a set of energy demand and price models that are used to forecast monthly demand and prices of various energy products up to eight quarters in the future. The STIFS demand model is based on monthly data (unless otherwise noted), but the forecast is published on a quarterly basis. All of the forecasts are presented at the national level, and no regional detail is available. The model discussed in this report is the April 1985 version of the STIFS demand model. The relationships described by this model include: the specification of retail energy prices as a function of input prices, seasonal factors, and other significant variables; and the specification of energy demand by product as a function of price, a measure of economic activity, and other appropriate variables. The STIFS demand model is actually a collection of 18 individual models representing the demand for each type of fuel. The individual fuel models are listed below: motor gasoline; nonutility distillate fuel oil, (a) diesel, (b) nondiesel; nonutility residual fuel oil; jet fuel, kerosene-type and naphtha-type; liquefied petroleum gases; petrochemical feedstocks and ethane; kerosene; road oil and asphalt; still gas; petroleum coke; miscellaneous products; coking coal; electric utility coal; retail and general industry coal; electricity generation; nonutility natural gas; and utility petroleum. The demand estimates produced by these models are used in the STIFS integrating model to produce a full energy balance of energy supply, demand, and stock change. These forecasts are published quarterly in the Outlook. Details of the major changes in the forecasting methodology and an evaluation of previous forecast errors are presented once a year in Volume 2 of the Outlook, the Methodology publication.

Not Available

1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

Annual Cycle Integration of the NMC Medium-Range Forecasting (MRF) Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The NMC Global Spectral Model was integrated for one year. The model used is the same as the 1989 operational medium range forecast model except that the horizontal resolution was reduced from T80 to T40. Overall, the model was very successful in ...

M. Kanamitsu; K. C. Mo; E. Kalnay

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

WILLIAM H  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

WILLIAM H. ESCHENFELDT, Ph.D. WILLIAM H. ESCHENFELDT, Ph.D. PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE Argonne National Laboratory (1996-present) STA - Molecular Biologist Amoco BioProducts Corporation (1988 - 1995) Staff Research Scientist National Cancer Institute (1981 - 1988) Senior Staff Fellow University of Kentucky (1979 - 1981) Public Health Service Postdoctoral Fellow EDUCATIONAL SUMMARY Ph.D. Microbiology, Michigan State University (1979) M.S. Microbiology, Michigan State University (1975) B.S. Microbiology, University of Illinois (1972) PUBLICATIONS Nusca T.D., Kim Y., Maltseva N., Lee J.Y., Eschenfeldt W., Stols L., Schofield M.M., Scaglione J.B., Dixon S.D., Oves-Costales D,. Challis G.L., Hanna P.C., Pfleger B.F., Joachimiak A., Sherman D.H. (2012) Functional and structural analysis of the siderophore synthetase AsbB

24

Thomas D. Williams Assistant Administrator  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Thomas D. Williams Thomas D. Williams Assistant Administrator for Resource and Tecnology Management Duties Thomas D. Williams is the Assistant Administrator for Resource & Technology Management. He provides leadership and direction to oversee the management and operation of EIA's employee services, information technology policy and operations, and integrated planning, budget, procurement, evaluation and project management activity. Biography Thom is a career member of the Senior Executive Service with more than 27 years of professional experience in developing, linking, and implementing successful strategic, financial, human capital, operational, technology, and administrative policies and plans for federal research, science, engineering, and regulatory programs.

25

William Delp  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Portrait of Woody Delp Portrait of Woody Delp William Delp Indoor Environment Group Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 1 Cyclotron Road MS 90-3058 Berkeley CA 94720 Office Location: 90-3030 (510) 486-5864 WWDelp@lbl.gov Woody Delp received a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from the University of Missouri Rolla in 1995. His graduate work involved modeling how much ventilation (outside air) comes into variable air volume (VAV) systems as they operate across a range of climates and seasons. Woody grew up in Rolla working in a family-owned HVAC contracting business. In his dad's business he worked in every capacity, from service calls at a young age, to designing and installing complex systems for local laboratories. HVAC is very much in his blood. Woody has been at LBNL since 1995 and has worked in various project areas

26

Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M. (Mathematics and Computer Science); (Univ. of Chicago); (New York Univ.)

2009-10-09T23:59:59.000Z

27

Integration of Climate and Weather Information for Improving 15-Day-Ahead Accumulated Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skillful medium-range weather forecasts are critical for water resources planning and management. This study aims to improve 15-day-ahead accumulated precipitation forecasts by combining biweekly weather and disaggregated climate forecasts. A ...

Hui Wang; A. Sankarasubramanian; Ranji S. Ranjithan

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

William Watts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

for David Lorenzetti, and Tracy Thatcher. This Speaker's Seminars GE Nucleus for Residential Energy Use Education, Home Energy ManagementControl, Residential Energy Integration...

29

William F. Hederman, Jr. | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

William F. Hederman, Jr. William F. Hederman, Jr. About Us William F. Hederman, Jr. - Deputy Director for Systems Integration and Senior Advisor to the Secretary William F. Hederman, Jr. William F. Hederman is the Deputy Director for Systems Integration and Senior Advisor to the Secretary. Mr. Hederman is a trained electrical engineer and public policy analyst with decades of executive experience in the private and public sectors. He began his professional career as a systems integration engineer at Bell Labs in the directorate that later developed the cell phone system. Mr. Hederman served on the RAND Corporation's research team that pioneered analysis of Federal technology demonstrations, worked as the Congressional Budget Office's first energy and science budget analyst, and led the establishment of the policy

30

FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

Templeton, K.J.

1996-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

31

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

Information Center

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Alice C. Williams | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Alice C. Williams Alice C. Williams About Us Alice C. Williams - Associate Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environmental Management Alice C. Williams Alice is currently the Associate Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM). She is responsible for providing oversight of the EM Mission Units and ensuring integration across the mission areas at both DOE Headquarters and the field. Prior to her current position, Alice Williams served as the Livermore Site Manager for the National Nuclear Security Administration. In this capacity, she was responsible for the operations, oversight, and contract administration of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. With a Federal staff of approximately 100 positions, she performed Federal

33

An Integrated Approach to Mid- and Upper-Level Turbulence Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An automated procedure for forecasting mid- and upper-level turbulence that affects aircraft is described. This procedure, termed the Graphical Turbulence Guidance system, uses output from numerical weather prediction model forecasts to derive ...

R. Sharman; C. Tebaldi; G. Wiener; J. Wolff

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

Bush, Sarah, 1973-

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

HYBRID GREY RELATIONAL ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AND AUTO REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE MODEL FOR FORECASTING TIME-SERIES DATA  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of this study is to develop a new hybrid model by combining a linear and nonlinear model for forecasting time-series data. The proposed model (GRANN_ARIMA) integrates nonlinear grey relational artificial neural network (GRANN) and a linear autoregressive ...

Roselina Sallehuddin; Siti Mariyam Hj. Shamsuddin

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Carl Williams Bio  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... Dr. Williams worked as a senior policy analyst within the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), Executive Office of the President from ...

2011-10-25T23:59:59.000Z

37

BNL | F. William Studier  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

F. William Studier Molecular & Structural Biology Group Leader Research Interests Research has centered on conformations and interactions of DNA, molecular genetics and...

38

Williams, Ronald L From: Breed, William  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Breed, William Breed, William Sent: Thursday, February 15,2001 4:14 PM To: Anderson, Margot Cc: Terry, Tracy Subject: RE: national energy strategy Okay by me; let us know what effort is needed and appropriate. Bill -Original Message- From: Anderson, Margot Sent Thursday, February 15, 2001 4:13 PM To: Breed, William Cc Terry, Tracy Subject: RE: national energy strategy BB - Thanks for volunteering HS for the macro section and Fred for micro. John fingered Tracy for both. Tracy is working AS WE WRITE on the macro part - we got EIA's input and she is reviewing and adding her two cents. I am going to let TT make the call. If she has time for Hilary to review and add (by the end of the day), fine, otherwise, given the short timeframe, Hilary can get in on the next round. Margot --

39

A PGAS Implementation by Co-design of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Today the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) runs a 16 km global T1279 operational weather forecast model using 1,536 cores of an IBM Power7. Following the historical evolution in resolution upgrades, ECMWF could expect to be ... Keywords: PGAS, COARRAYS, FORTRAN2008, CRESTA,

George Mozdzynski, Mats Hamrud, Nils Wedi, Jens Doleschal, Harvey Richardson

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Comparative analysis of models integrating synoptic forecast data into potato late blight risk estimate systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Determinacy analysis, logistic regression, discriminant analysis and neural network models were compared for their accuracy in 5-day (120h) forecasts of daily potato late blight risk according to a modified-Wallin disease severity model. For 12 locations ... Keywords: Expert systems, Forecasting, Neural network models, Risk mitigation

Kathleen M. Baker; William W. Kirk

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

A Revised Hydrology for the ECMWF Model: Verification from Field Site to Terrestrial Water Storage and Impact in the Integrated Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land (TESSEL) is used operationally in the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) for describing the evolution of soil, vegetation, and snow over the continents at diverse spatial resolutions. A revised ...

Gianpaolo Balsamo; Anton Beljaars; Klaus Scipal; Pedro Viterbo; Bart van den Hurk; Martin Hirschi; Alan K. Betts

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013 We continue to anticipate an above-average season in 2013, although we have lowered our forecast slightly due and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available online at: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

43

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts

44

Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations  

SciTech Connect

The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

2010-04-20T23:59:59.000Z

46

Explicitly integrating parameter, input, and structure uncertainties into Bayesian Neural Networks for probabilistic hydrologic forecasting  

SciTech Connect

Estimating uncertainty of hydrologic forecasting is valuable to water resources and other relevant decision making processes. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proved powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty of streamflow forecasting. In this study, we propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework to incorporate the uncertainties associated with input, model structure, and parameter into BNNs. This framework allows the structure of the neural networks to change by removing or adding connections between neurons and enables scaling of input data by using rainfall multipliers. The results show that the new BNNs outperform the BNNs that only consider uncertainties associated with parameter and model structure. Critical evaluation of posterior distribution of neural network weights, number of effective connections, rainfall multipliers, and hyper-parameters show that the assumptions held in our BNNs are not well supported. Further understanding of characteristics of different uncertainty sources and including output error into the MCMC framework are expected to enhance the application of neural networks for uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasting.

Zhang, Xuesong; Liang, Faming; Yu, Beibei; Zong, Ziliang

2011-11-09T23:59:59.000Z

47

Interaction with William Carnall  

SciTech Connect

A personal account is given of interaction with William T. Carnall during the period 1977-1988, when I made regular visits to the Argonne National Laboratory to discuss the theoretical background to the spectroscopic work he was carrying out on the lanthanides and actinides.

Judd, Brian R. [Henry A. Rowland Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg Center, Baltimore, MD 21218-2686 (United States)]. E-mail: juddbr@pha.jhu.edu

2005-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

48

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2012  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY increased our forecast slightly from early April, due to large amounts of uncertainty in both the phase and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World

50

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY activity is predicted. (as of 10 April 2013) By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

51

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2012  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY activity is predicted. (as of 4 April 2012) By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

52

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2009  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2009 We have reduced our forecast slightly from early June due largely to the development of an El Niño. We continue. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via

53

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 ­ AUGUST 16, 2012 relative to climatology. (as of 3 August 2012) By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available online at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

Gray, William

54

Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA’s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet the critical requirements associated with shipping, commercial and sport fishing vessel safety, and oil spill response. This dissertation also performs a detailed qualitative and quantitative assessment of the impact of various forcing functions on wave pre- dictions, and develops maps showing extreme variations in significant wave heights (SWHs). For instance, it is found that the SWH could vary by as much as 1 m in the northern CI region in the presence of currents (hence justifying the need for integration of the wave model with a circulation model). Such maps can be useful for several engineering operations, and could also serve as guidance tool as to what can be expected in certain regions. Aside from the system development, the issue of forecast reliability is also addressed for PWS region in the context of the associated uncertainty which confronts the manager of engineering operations or other planners. For this purpose, high-resolution 36-h daily forecasts of SWHs are compared with measurements from buoys and satellites for about a year. The results show that 70% of the peak SWHs in the range 5-8 m were predicted with an accuracy of 15% or less for a forecast lead time of 9 h. On average, results indicate 70% or greater likelihood of the prediction falling within a tolerance of ±(1*RMSE) for all lead times. This analysis could not be performed for CI due to lack of data sources.

Singhal, Gaurav

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast volume summary - Volume 1 and Volume 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Solid waste forecast volumes to be generated or received ;at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste program over the life cycle of the site are described in this report. Previous forecast summary reports have covered only a 30-year period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted for this FY 1996 report to ensure consistency with waste volumes reported in the 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans (MYPP). The volume data were collected on a life-cycle basis from onsite and offsite waste generators who currently ship or plan to ship solid waste to the Solid Waste program. The volumes described in detail are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic-mixed (TRU(M)) waste. The volumes reported in this document represent the external volume of the containers selected to ship the waste. Summary level information pertaining to low-level waste (LLW) is described in Appendix B. Hazardous waste volumes are also provided in Appendices E and F but are not described in detail since they will be managed by a commercial facility. Emphasis is placed on LLMW and TRU(M) waste because it will require processing and storage at Hanford Solid Waste`s Central Waste Complex (CORK) prior to final disposal. The LLW will generally be sent directly to disposal. The total baselines volume of LLMW and TRU(M) waste forecast to be received by the Solid Waste program (until 2070) is approximately 100,900 cubic meters. This total waste volume is composed of the following waste categories: 077,080 cubic meters of LLMW; 23,180 cubic meters of TRU(M); 640 cubic meters of greater-than-class III LLMW. This total is about 40% of the total volume reported last year (FY 1995).

Valero, O.J.

1996-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

56

Williams, Ronald LM  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

LM LM - "- Williams, Ronald L From: Braitsch, Jay Sent: Thursday, March 22, 2001 6:21 PM To: Anderson, Margot Cc: Kripowicz, Robert; DeHoratiis, Guido; Johnson. Nancy; Melchert, Elena; Rudins, George; Carter, Douglas; Juckett, Donald Subject: NEP Chapter 8 - Supply Importance: High Margo - I'll be out until next Tuesday but the above people can respond to whatever. ch 8 march 22.doc 21008 DOE021-1461 Williams, Ronald L From: Melchert, Elena Sent: Friday, March 23, 2001 8:09 AM To: Anderson, Margot Cc: DeHoratiis, Guido Subject: RE: NEP Chapter 8 - Supply Yes we can get some graphics this morning. Elena -- Orginal Message- From: Anderson, Margot Sent: Friday, March 23, 2001 8:08 AM To: Braitsch, Jay Cc Krlpowlcz, Robert; DeHoratis, Guido; Johnson, Nancy; Melchert, Eena; Rudins, George; Carter, Douglas; Judcett, Donald

57

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

58

Business forecasting methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...

60

William Brinkman | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

William Brinkman William Brinkman About Us Dr. William Brinkman - Director of the Office of Science Photo of Dr. William F. Brinkman Dr. William F. Brinkman was confirmed by the Senate on June 19, 2009 and sworn in on June 30, 2009 as the Director of the Office of Science in the U.S. Department of Energy. He joins the Office of Science at a crucial point in the Nation's history as the country strives toward energy security - a key mission area of the Department of Energy. Dr. Brinkman said during his confirmation hearing that he looked forward to working "tirelessly to advance the revolution in energy technologies, to understand nuclear technologies and to continue basic research in the 21st century." Dr. Brinkman brings decades of experience in managing scientific research

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61

William Perry | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

William Perry William Perry About Us William Perry - Former Secretary of Defense, Stanford University Professor Photo of William Perry William Perry is the Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor (emeritus) at Stanford University. He is a senior fellow at FSI and serves as co-director of the Nuclear Risk Reduction initiative and the Preventive Defense Project. He is an expert in U.S. foreign policy, national security and arms control. He was the co-director of CISAC from 1988 to 1993, during which time he was also a professor (half time) at Stanford. He was a part-time lecturer in the Department of Mathematics at Santa Clara University from 1971 to 1977. Perry was the 19th Secretary of Defense for the United States, serving from February 1994 to January 1997. He previously served as Deputy Secretary of

62

William J. Clinton, 1998  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

9 9 Administration of William J. Clinton, 1998 / June 11 somehow going there would absolve the Chi- nese Government of its responsibility for the terrible killings at Tiananmen Square 9 years ago, or indicate that America is no longer concerned about such conduct. They are wrong. Protocol and honoring a nation's tradi- tional practices should not be confused with principle. China's leaders, as I have repeat- edly said, can only move beyond the events of June, 1989, when they recognize the re- ality that what the Government did was wrong. Sooner or later they must do that. And perhaps even more important, they must change course on this fundamentally impor- tant issue. In my meetings with President Jiang and other Chinese leaders and in my discussions with the Chinese people, I will press ahead

63

William J. Clinton, 2000  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

May 26 / Administration of William J. Clinton, 2000 We intend to establish ecological reserves in the most fragile areas to keep them off- limits to fishing, drilling, and other damaging uses. I'm also directing the EPA to strength- en water quality standards all along our coasts and provide stronger protections for the most vulnerable ocean waters, to reduce pollution of beaches, coasts, and oceans. Second, I'm announcing today our com- mitment to permanently protect coral reefs of the northwest Hawaiian Islands. If you've ever been there, you know why we should. These eight islands are not, all of them, so well-known, but they stretch over 1,200 miles. They shelter more than 60 percent of America's coral reefs. They're home to plants and animals found nowhere else on Earth

64

Mr. William Steuteville  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

45 45 DEC 18 13% Mr. William Steuteville 3 HW 33 EPA Region III 841 Chestnut Street Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19107 Dear Mr. Steuteville: I am enclosing for your information a copy of the radiological survey report for the former Aeroprojects Facility in West Chester, Pennsylvania. The survey was performed for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Only background levels of radioactivity were found during the course of the survey. A copy of the survey has been furnished to the owners of the property, Philadelphia Ventures. A copy of the transmittal letter is enclosed. There have been allegations of burial of small quantities of uranium at this site. It appears that the amount of uranium involved is well below the 100 pound reportable quantity (RQ) set

65

William J. Clinton, 2000  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

1 1 Administration of William J. Clinton, 2000 / Apr. 22 have the vehicles they want with the effi- ciency they deserve. More than 100 years ago, the great Amer- ican poet Henry Wadsworth Longfellow re- minded us that ''nature is a revelation of God.'' This Earth Day, let us remember that we are only stewards, in our time, of the Earth God gave us for all time. And let us strengthen our resolve to preserve the beauty and the natural bounty that sustains us and must sustain generations yet to come. Happy holidays, and thanks for listening. NOTE: The address was recorded at 5:12 p.m. on April 21 in the East Room at the White House for broadcast at 10:06 a.m. on April 22. The tran- script was made available by the Office of the Press Secretary on April 21 but was embargoed

66

William J. Clinton, 2000  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

6 6 Nov. 6 / Administration of William J. Clinton, 2000 Statement on Signing the Executive Order on Consultation and Coordination With Indian Tribal Governments November 6, 2000 Today I am pleased to sign a revised Exec- utive order on consultation with Indian tribal governments. This Executive order, itself based on consultation, will renew my admin- istration's commitment to tribal sovereignty and our government-to-government relation- ship. The first Americans hold a unique place in our history. Long before others came to our shores, the first Americans had estab- lished self-governing societies. Among their societies, democracy flourished long before the founding of our Nation. Our Nation en- tered into treaties with Indian nations, which acknowledged their right to self-government

67

William J. Clinton, 1995  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Administration of William J. Clinton, 1995 / Aug. 8 for an egg would you give him a scorpion? Today we must ask, if our child asked about the future, will we give him or her dirty air, poison water; would we keep them from knowing what chemicals are being released into their neighborhoods and keep their par- ents from protecting them? We all know what the answer is. It's no. It seems simple here in this wonderful neighborhood. Why don't you help us make it simple in Washington, DC? Thank you very much. NOTE: The President spoke at 1:10 p.m. at Fort Armistead Park. In his remarks, he referred to Doris McGuigan, environmental activist in the Brooklyn-Curtis Bay community of Baltimore, and Thomas V. ''Mike'' Miller, Jr., president of the Maryland Senate. Executive Order 12969-Federal

68

The role of ICTs in downscaling and up-scaling integrated weather forecasts for farmers in sub-Saharan Africa  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite global advancements in technology and inter-trade volumes, Sub-Saharan Africa is the only Region where cases of hunger have increased since 1990. Rampant and frequent droughts are one of the major causes of this. Monumental and mostly donor-funded ... Keywords: Nganyi clan of western Kenya, indigenous knowledge weather forecasts, seasonal climate forecasts, sub-Saharan Africa, wireless sensor networks

Muthoni Masinde; Antoine Bagula; Nzioka J. Muthama

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY-average forecast, we are calling for an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. (as of 3 June 2013) By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past

70

NREL: Energy Sciences - William Tumas  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Chemical & Nanoscale Science Theoretical Materials Science Materials Science Hydrogen Technology & Fuel Cells Process Technology & Advanced Concepts Research Staff Computational Science Printable Version William Tumas Associate Laboratory Director, Materials and Chemical Science and Technology Photo of William Tumas Phone: (303) 384-7955 Email: Bill.Tumas@nrel.gov At NREL Since: 2009 Dr. William Tumas is the Associate Laboratory Director for Materials and Chemical Science and Technology, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). He is responsible for overall leadership, management, technical direction, and workforce development of the materials and chemical science and technology capabilities at NREL spanning fundamental and applied R&D for renewable energy and energy efficiency. Key program areas include solar

71

Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts—a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...

Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher

1987-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

Abbreviated Curriculum Vitae of William D. Phillips  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Abbreviated Curriculum Vitae of William D. Phillips Updated: November 1997. Personal: Born: 5 November 1948; Birthplace ...

73

Forecast Combinations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models’ forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains

Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

William Bryan | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

William Bryan William Bryan About Us William Bryan - Deputy Assistant Secretary of Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration William Bryan Mr. Bryan is the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration in the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE). The office of Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration (ISER) works with the National Security Staff, other U.S. government agencies, and international partners to enhance the security and resiliency of critical energy infrastructure and facilitate the reconstruction and recovery of damaged or disrupted energy systems. As a career Senior Executive, Mr. Bryan oversees the collection, analysis, and dissemination of vital information to all involved in energy response

75

Forecasting overview  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the “naďve method”), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

77

Dynamic filter weights neural network model integrated with differential evolution for day-ahead price forecasting in energy market  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper a new dynamic model for forecasting electricity prices from 1 to 24h in advance is proposed. The model is a dynamic filter weight Adaline using a sliding mode weight adaptation technique. The filter weights for this neuron constitute of ... Keywords: Differential evolution, Dynamic filter weights neuron, Energy market, Local linear wavelet neural network, Sliding mode control

S. Chakravarty; P. K. Dash

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

General Electric Uses an Integrated Framework for Product Costing, Demand Forecasting, and Capacity Planning of New Photovoltaic Technology Products  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

General Electric (GE) Energy's nascent solar business has revenues of over $100 million, expects those revenues to grow to over $1 billion in the next three years, and has plans to rapidly grow the business beyond this period. GE Global Research (GEGR), ... Keywords: capital budgeting, cost analysis, facilities planning, forecasting, mathematical programming, risk

Bex George Thomas; Srinivas Bollapragada

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations  

SciTech Connect

The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

Hazardous Waste Management Keith Williams  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Hazardous Waste Management Keith Williams DES ­ Environmental Affairs Extension 53163 #12,100 Locally · 1998 Univ of Va $33,990 · 1998 Univ. of MD $0 !!!!! #12;Hazardous Waste Disposal Procedures Hazardous (Chemical) Waste Management in University of Maryland Laboratories o All laboratories and work

Appelbaum, Ian

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Mathematical and computer modelling reports: Modeling and forecasting energy markets with the intermediate future forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the ...

Frederic H. Murphy; John J. Conti; Susan H. Shaw; Reginald Sanders

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

83

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

85

Depositional sequences and integrated recovery efficiency forecast models for San Andres and Clearfork Units in the Central Basin Platform and the Northern Shelf, west Texas  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops depositional sequences of the carbonate ramp and the carbonate shelf models for an idealized cycle and multiple cycles of depositions. Based on the developed depositional sequences, the integrated recovery efficiency forecast models of primary, initial waterflood and infill drilling are developed for the San Andres and Clearfork reservoirs in Central Basin Platform and the Northern Shelf, west Texas. The geological parameters and well spacing are considered major factors for controlling recovery efficiencies. The depositional environment and diagenesis are controlling geological factors affecting oil recovery efficiencies. The depositional sequences characterize the vertical and lateral variations of depositional-energy environments in development of the carbonate ramp and the carbonate shelf The depositional-energy environment controls the depositional rock's facies. The well-sorted and large-size grainstones are related to the higher depositional-energy environment. The poorly-sorted and small-size rocks are related to the lower depositional-energy environment. The depositions of the San Andres and Clearfork formation in the Central Basin Platform, separately, follow the prograding-ramp sequences of one major cycle with multiple subcycles. The lumping depositional energy increases from the inner platform to the platform boundary. Similarly, the depositions of San Andres and Clearfork formation in the Northern Shelf also follow one major prograding cycle with multiple subcycles, separately. However, the lumping depositional energy, decreases from the inner platform to the platform boundary. A normalized depositional energy index is defined based on the depositional sequences of the ramp and shelf models. Normalization is also used to define a porosity index and a well spacing index. Linear and exponential regressions on a database are conducted to develop recovery efficiency forecast models which include depositional energy, porosity and well spacing indices. Section 17, Dollarhide Clearfork Unit is used as an example to show the applications of the recovery efficiency forecast models.

Shao, Hongbin

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

William Heller | ORNL Neutron Sciences  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

William Heller William Heller Instrument Scientist: EQ-SANS Education B.S. in Physics and Mathematics, 1993; University of Nebraska-Lincoln; Lincoln, NE M.A. in Physics, 1996; Rice University; Houston, TX; Thesis Advisor: Prof. H. W. Huang Ph.D. in Physics, 1999; Positions Held: 1999-2002: Postdoctoral Research Associate, Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory. Supervisor: Jill Trewhella, Ph.D. 2002-2004: Postdoctoral Research Associate, Condensed Matter Sciences Division and Center for Structural Molecular Biology, Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Supervisors: Michelle V. Buchanan, Ph.D., George D. Wignall, Ph.D., and Dean A. A. Myles, Ph.D. 2004-2008: Chemist/Biophysicist Research Associate, Chemical Sciences Division and Center for Structural Molecular Biology, Oak Ridge National

87

SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

BARCOT, R.A.

2005-08-17T23:59:59.000Z

88

SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

BARCOT, R.A.

2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

Short-term streamflow forecasting: ARIMA vs neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Streamflow forecasting is very important for water resources management and flood defence. In this paper two forecasting methods are compared: ARIMA versus a multilayer perceptron neural network. This comparison is done by forecasting a streamflow of ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, auto regressive integrated moving average, forecasting, streamflow

Juan Frausto-Solis; Esmeralda Pita; Javier Lagunas

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

A new class of hybrid models for time series forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Applying quantitative models for forecasting and assisting investment decision making has become more indispensable in business practices than ever before. Improving forecasting especially time series forecasting accuracy is an important yet often difficult ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks (ANNs), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Hybrid models, Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs), Time series forecasting

Mehdi Khashei; Mehdi Bijari

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

or over predicting electricity demand due to poor weather forecasts is several hundred million dollars outages that many in the area experienced. Deep Thunder can also improve generation-side load forecasting by providing high-resolution weather forecast data for use in electricity demand forecast models. Integrating

Manry, Michael

92

William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) | U.S.  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

William R. Wiley Environmental William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) Biological and Environmental Research (BER) BER Home About Research Research Abstracts Searchable Archive of BER Highlights External link Biological Systems Science Division (BSSD) Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) ARM Climate Research Facility Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program Data Management Earth System Modeling (ESM) Program William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) Integrated Assessment of Global Climate Change Regional & Global Climate Modeling (RGCM) Program Subsurface Biogeochemical Research Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration External link Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of BER Funding Opportunities Biological & Environmental Research Advisory Committee (BERAC)

93

Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.

James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest Inventory.brewer@forestry.gsi.gov.uk Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume

96

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

97

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast

Greenslade, Diana

98

Making Forecasts and Weather Normalization Work Together  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Electric utility industry restructuring has changed the consistency between weather-normalized sales and energy forecasts. This Technology Review discusses the feasibility of integrating weather normalization and forecasting processes, and addresses whether the conflicting goal of obtaining greater consistency and accuracy with fewer staff resources can be met with more integrated approaches.

2000-09-11T23:59:59.000Z

99

Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...

W. Y. Chen

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

Hawaii Energy Strategy: Program guide. [Contains special sections on analytical energy forecasting, renewable energy resource assessment, demand-side energy management, energy vulnerability assessment, and energy strategy integration  

SciTech Connect

The Hawaii Energy Strategy program, or HES, is a set of seven projects which will produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. It will include a comprehensive energy vulnerability assessment with recommended courses of action to decrease Hawaii's energy vulnerability and to better prepare for an effective response to any energy emergency or supply disruption. The seven projects are designed to increase understanding of Hawaii's energy situation and to produce recommendations to achieve the State energy objectives of: Dependable, efficient, and economical state-wide energy systems capable of supporting the needs of the people, and increased energy self-sufficiency. The seven projects under the Hawaii Energy Strategy program include: Project 1: Develop Analytical Energy Forecasting Model for the State of Hawaii. Project 2: Fossil Energy Review and Analysis. Project 3: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Development Program. Project 4: Demand-Side Management Program. Project 5: Transportation Energy Strategy. Project 6: Energy Vulnerability Assessment Report and Contingency Planning. Project 7: Energy Strategy Integration and Evaluation System.

1992-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Melvin G. Williams, Jr. | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Melvin G. Williams, Jr. Melvin G. Williams, Jr. About Us Melvin G. Williams, Jr. - Former Associate Deputy Secretary Melvin G. Williams, Jr. Melvin G. Williams Jr., Vice Admiral, U.S. Navy (retired), served as the Associate Deputy Secretary of Energy until February 2013. As a Presidential Appointee at the U.S. Department of Energy, he served as the key leader responsible for the Department's management and operational excellence. He reported directly to the Secretary of Energy and the Deputy Secretary, and drove improvements in mission execution and assured that they were efficiently and effectively implemented throughout the Department. A nuclear trained submariner, he served in the U.S. Navy for thirty-two years as a commissioned officer and one year as an enlisted sailor. His extensive operational assignments included four Command opportunities,

102

The .Hoiorable William S. Cohen'  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

Secretary of Energy' Secretary of Energy' Washington, bC 20585 October 10, 1997 ' . , :. . The .Hoiorable William S. Cohen' Secretary of' eefense Washing+, D.C. 203Oi .' Dear Mr. Se&etm: ,_ -_ . . ' ,I. ' . a- / 4 ' . \ ' . The Congr&s recently se$ tp the President for signature the' Energy and Water Development Appropriations Act, 1998. Among other provi$ions, this bill would immediately transfer responsibility forthe Formerly:U&zed Sites Remedial Action . Program (FUSRAP) from the Department of Energy to the United Strites Army Corps of Engineers.. ;Assuming that this transfer becomes law, but without prejudging the President' s decision, the Department of Energy will work with the Corps to ensure a prompt and smooth transition, consistent with the wish& of the

103

The Honorable, William S . Cohen  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

' ' The Skcretary of Energy _ Washington. bC 20585 ' -. October 10, 1997 ' 0 -- .' . . The Honorable, William S . Cohen ' Secretary 0f' Defense Washington, D.C. 20301 .' Jhr Mr. Secretary: ,I ' . ,.. *- . : . ' . The Congress recently sent to the President for signature the Energy and Water . Development Appropriations Act, 1998. Among other provisions, this bill would ' . immediately transfer responsibility for the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Actron Program (FUSRAP) from the Department of Energy to the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Assuming that this transfer becomes law, but without prejudging the President' s decision, the Department of Energy will work with the Corps to ensure a prompt and smooth transition, consi&ent with the wishes of the

104

William Morrow CV May 2013  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

R. Morrow III Page 1 R. Morrow III Page 1 William R. Morrow III, P. E., Ph.D. WRMorrow@lbl.gov 510.495.2027 LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORITORY Berkeley, CA Principle Scientific Engineering Associate 2010 - Present Environmental Energy Technologies Division; Energy Analysis Department Sustainable Energy Systems Group, International Energy Studies Group & the Emerging Technology Assessment Team Developing resolution to complex technical problems where analysis of situations or data requires an in-depth evaluation of various factors, and uses scientific/engineering concepts in accordance with organizational objectives to solve complex problems in creative and effective ways in the following areas: o Developing forward looking techno-economic projections and conceptual frameworks for evaluating

105

The Honorable, William S . Cohen  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

c - c - . .' 0 -- .' . . - . . The Honorable, William S . Cohen . : Secretary ofDefense Washington, D.C. 20301 -. , 1. .' .- - I &karMr. Secretary: . ' The Congress recently sent to the President for signature the Energy and Water Development Appropriations Act, 1998. Among other provisions, this bill would immediately transfer responsibility for the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program @USRAP) from the Department of Energy to the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Assuming that this transfer becomes law, but without prejudging the President' s decision, the Department of Energy will work with the Corps to ensure a prompt and smooth transition, consistent with the wishes of the ' Congress. . Should this provision become law, the Department of Energy'

106

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons

107

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

108

The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this “forecast gap.” Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...

2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

109

Manhattan Project: William S. "Deke" Parsons  

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

Alamos, Los Alamos: Laboratory, 1943-1944 Places > Other Places > Bomb Casing and Drop Test Sites Places > Los Alamos: The Laboratory > S-Site Implosion Facility William S. "Deke"...

110

Williams Stone Wind Turbine | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Wind Turbine Wind Turbine Jump to: navigation, search Name Williams Stone Wind Turbine Facility Williams Stone Wind Turbine Sector Wind energy Facility Type Community Wind Facility Status In Service Owner Williams Stone Developer Sustainable Energy Developments Energy Purchaser Williams Stone Location Otis MA Coordinates 42.232526°, -73.070952° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":42.232526,"lon":-73.070952,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

111

Michael D Williams | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

PPPL was nearing a new era when Williams joined the Lab in 1976 as a Rutgers-trained electrical engineer. Just ahead lay construction of the TFTR, which was completed in 1982...

112

Tommy Williams | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Partner Partnering Center within NREL Electricity Resources & Building Systems Integration LinkedIn Connections CrunchBase Profile No CrunchBase profile. Create one now...

113

Forecasting in Meteorology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...

C. S. Ramage

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Potential Forecast Skill of Ensemble Prediction and Spread and Skill Distributions of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble forecasting is a feasible method to integrate a deterministic forecast with an estimate of the probability distribution of atmospheric states. At the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Ensemble Prediction ...

Roberto Buizza

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

115

Consensus Forecasts of Modeled Wave Parameters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The use of numerical guidance has become integral to the process of modern weather forecasting. Using various techniques, postprocessing of numerical model output has been shown to mitigate some of the deficiencies of these models, producing more ...

Tom H. Durrant; Frank Woodcock; Diana J. M. Greenslade

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

The ENIAC Forecasts: A Re-creation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The numerical forecasts made in 1950 using the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC) paved the way for the remarkable advances that have been made over the past half-century in weather prediction and climate modeling. We review the ...

Peter Lynch

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

118

William Fowler and Elements in the Stars  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

William Fowler and Elements in the Stars Resources with Additional Information William A. Fowler Courtesy AIP Emilio Segrè Visual Archives 'William A. Fowler ... shared the 1983 Nobel Prize in physics for his research into the creation of chemical elements inside stars ... . During his career in nuclear physics and nuclear astrophysics, which spanned more that 60 years, Fowler was primarily concerned with studies of fusion reactions--how the nuclei of lighter chemical elements fuse to create the heavier ones in a process known as nucleosynthesis. In 1957, Fowler coauthored ... the seminal paper "Synthesis of the Elements in the Stars", [which] showed that all of the elements from carbon to uranium could be produced by nuclear processes in stars, starting only with the hydrogen and helium produced in the Big Bang.

119

NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of variable generation on electric power system operations. Electric power system operators can reduce the...

120

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...

122

Extreme wave events during hurricanes can seriously jeopardize the integrity and safety of offshore oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Validation of wave forecast for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Validation of wave forecast for significant wave heights over the warm Gulf of Mexico water between 26 and 28 August, and became a category 5 hurricane by 1200 OF WAVES AND CURRENTS IN HURRICANE KATRINA BY DONG-PING WANG AND LIE-YAUW OEY FIG. 1. The Gulf of Mexico

123

Williams instructional technology: summer students working on faculty projects  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Williams Instructional Technology (WIT) is a summer technology intern program hosted by the Office for Information Technology at Williams College. The WIT program started in 1997 as part of an Andrew W. Mellon Foundation grant. The goals of the program ... Keywords: faculty, instructional technology, program, projects, students, summer, training, williams college, wit

Trevor Murphy

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

The Effects of the RAW Filter on the Climatology and Forecast Skill of the SPEEDY Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In a recent study, Williams introduced a simple modification to the widely used Robert–Asselin (RA) filter for numerical integration. The main purpose of the Robert–Asselin–Williams (RAW) filter is to avoid the undesired numerical damping of the ...

Javier Amezcua; Eugenia Kalnay; Paul D. Williams

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

A novel hybridization of artificial neural networks and ARIMA models for time series forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Improving forecasting especially time series forecasting accuracy is an important yet often difficult task facing decision makers in many areas. Both theoretical and empirical findings have indicated that integration of different models can be an effective ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks (ANNs), Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Hybrid models, Time series forecasting

Mehdi Khashei; Mehdi Bijari

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

Verifying Forecasts Spatially  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...

Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...

André Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Mr. William Mendoza Acting Executive Director  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

William Mendoza William Mendoza Acting Executive Director Department of Energy Washing!on, DC 20585 May4, 2011 White House Initiative on Tribal Colleges and Universities Department of Education 400 Maryland A venue, SW Washington, DC 20202 Dear Mr. Mendoza: Enclosed is the Department of Energy's (DOE) Fiscal Year (FY) 2010 Annual Performance Report on our activities to assist Tribal College and Universities (TCUs). DOE is submitting this information in accordance with Executive Order 13270. In FY 2010, DOE provided $275,000 in total expenditures for TCUs, an increase of $169,500 from the amount provided to TCU s in FY 2009. In an effort to raise the level of support in future years, DOE will continue to set funding goals and to identify opportunities for additional

129

Williams, Ronald L From: PETTIS, LARRY  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

PETTIS, LARRY PETTIS, LARRY Sent Tuesday, February 13, 2001' 10:12 PM To: Kelliher, Joseph Cc: Anderson, Margot; McSlanrow, Kyle Subject: Briefing for Vice President's Task Force 11164 DOE016-0916 Williams, Ronald L From: PETTIS, LARRY Sent: Tuesday, February 13.2001-10:12 PM To: Kelliher, Joseph Cc: Anderson, Margot; McSlarrow, Kyle Subject: Briefing for Vice President's Task Force 11165 DOE016-0917 Williams, Ronald L From: Kelliher. Joseph Sent: Tuesday. February 27. 2001 2:24 PM To: Anderson, Margot Subject: RE: solutions From: Anderson, Margot Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 9:38 AM To: Kelliher, Joseph Subject: RE: solutions Yes, I'll stop by. r ---- Orginal Message-- From: Kelliher, Joseph Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 9:34 AM To: Anderson, Margot Subject: RE: solutions Can you stop by after 11? We could talk about this and about providing input into the other sections of the report.

130

Williams Biomass Facility | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Biomass Facility Biomass Facility Facility Williams Sector Biomass Owner Enpower Corp Location Williams, California Coordinates 39.1546137°, -122.1494187° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":39.1546137,"lon":-122.1494187,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

131

Williams, Arizona: Energy Resources | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Williams, Arizona: Energy Resources Williams, Arizona: Energy Resources Jump to: navigation, search Equivalent URI DBpedia Coordinates 35.2494566°, -112.1910031° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":35.2494566,"lon":-112.1910031,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

132

Time Series and Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...

133

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

134

Statistical Forecasts Based on the National Meteorological Center's Numerical Weather Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The production of interpretive weather element forecasts from dynamical model output variables is now an integral part of the centralized guidance systems of weather services throughout the world. The statistical forecasting system in the United ...

Gary M. Carter; J. Paul Dallavalle; Harry R. Glahn

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

135

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

136

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.

Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sřrensen

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

PNNLs integrated systems biology approach to understanding the...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

PNNLs integrated systems biology approach to understanding the effects of exposure to low doses of ionizing radiation William F. Morgan, Biological Sciences Division, Pacific...

138

PNNLs integrated systems biology approach to understanding the...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

PNNLs integrated systems biology approach to understanding the effects of exposure to low doses of ionizing radiation William F. Morgan Pacific Northwest National Laboratory...

139

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system operation in terms of the efficiency of the system. The goal of this dissertation is to develop advanced statistical wind speed predictive models to reduce the uncertainties in wind, especially the short-term future wind speed. Moreover, a criterion is proposed to evaluate the performance of models. Cost reduction in power system operation, as proposed, is more realistic than prevalent criteria, such as, root mean square error (RMSE) and absolute mean error (MAE). Two advanced space-time statistical models are introduced for short-term wind speed forecasting. One is a modified regime-switching, space-time wind speed fore- casting model, which allows the forecast regimes to vary according to the dominant wind direction and seasons. Thus, it avoids a subjective choice of regimes. The other one is a novel model that incorporates a new variable, geostrophic wind, which has strong influence on the surface wind, into one of the advanced space-time statistical forecasting models. This model is motivated by the lack of improvement in forecast accuracy when using air pressure and temperature directly. Using geostrophic wind in the model is not only critical, it also has a meaningful geophysical interpretation. The importance of model evaluation is emphasized in the dissertation as well. Rather than using RMSE or MAE, the performance of both wind forecasting models mentioned above are assessed by economic benefits with real wind farm data from Pacific Northwest of the U.S and West Texas. Wind forecasts are incorporated into power system economic dispatch models, and the power system operation cost is used as a loss measure for the performance of the forecasting models. From another perspective, the new criterion leads to cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation with potential economic benefits arising from the system-wide generation of cost savings and ancillary services cost savings. As an illustration, the integrated forecasts and economic dispatch framework are applied to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) equivalent 24- bus system. Compared with persistence and autoregressive models, the first model suggests that cost savings from integration of wind power could be on the scale of tens of millions of dollars. For the second model, numerical simulations suggest that the overall generation cost can be reduced by up to 6.6% using look-ahead dispatch coupled with spatio-temporal wind forecast as compared with dispatch with persistent wind forecast model.

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

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141

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

142

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

143

Geographic Information System At U.S. West Region (Williams ...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Exploration Activity: Geographic Information System At U.S. West Region (Williams & Deangelo, 2008) Exploration Activity Details...

144

Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

forecast | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...

146

Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville

Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts,” Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Global and Local Skill Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...

P. L. Houtekamer

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

151

Does the term structure forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-

Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...

Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Composite forecasting in commodity systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The

Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

Community Studies and Research for Change: An Oral History with William Friedland  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Research for Change: An Oral History with William FriedlandResearch for Change: An Oral History with William FriedlandResearch for Change: An Oral History with William Friedland

Friedland, William; Rabkin, Sarah; Reti, Irene; Regional History Project, UCSC Library

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Critical Infrastructure Integration Modeling and William J. Tolone1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

University City Blvd Charlotte, NC 28223 {wjtolone, davils, anraja}@uncc.edu 2 Department of Geography City Blvd Charlotte, NC 28223 {wxiang, hhao}@uncc.edu, sphelps@carolina.rr.com 3 IntePoint Solutions, LLC. 9201 University City Blvd Charlotte, NC 28223 Wray.Johnson@IntePoint.com Abstract. The protection

Raja, Anita

156

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

157

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

158

John J. MacWilliams | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

You are here You are here Home » John J. MacWilliams About Us John J. MacWilliams - Senior Advisor John J. MacWilliams John J. MacWilliams was appointed in June 2013 as Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Energy at the U.S. Department of Energy. In this role he serves as the Secretary's senior finance advisor and is a member of his national security team. Prior to DOE, he was a partner of Tremont Energy Partners, LLC, a private investment firm based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, that was formed in 2003. Prior to Tremont, he was Vice Chairman, Investment Banking, at JP Morgan Chase and a Partner of JP Morgan Partners. Mr. MacWilliams was a founding partner in 1993 of The Beacon Group, LLC, a private investment firm located in New York, which was acquired by JP Morgan Chase in 2000. He was also

159

Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...

Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

Evaluating Point Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...

Gneiting, Tilmann

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Forecasters ’ Objectives and Strategies ?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.

Iván Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sřrensen

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

Oral Histories: Biochemist William D. Moss  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

9 9 HUMAN RADIATION STUDIES: REMEMBERING THE EARLY YEARS Oral History of Biochemist William D. Moss Conducted November 30, 1994 United States Department of Energy Office of Human Radiation Experiments September 1995 CONTENTS Foreword Short Biography Early Career at Los Alamos Early Development of Bioassay Tests to Measure Plutonium Exposure Developing Occupational Exposure Limits Exposure Accident Creates Need for More Sensitive Testing Long-Term Follow-Up Studies and the UPPU Club Wright Langham Joins the Los Alamos Health and Safety Group Langham Analyzes Results of Previous Plutonium and Polonium Injection Studies Langham Enacts Stringent Research Controls December 2, 1944 Memo Proposes Human Injection Study Polonium Studies at Rochester Los Alamos Analyzes Urine and Fecal Samples for 1945 Oak Ridge Injection Study

163

The HonorableZ William S. Cohen  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

.- . .- . ) p. .' *-. , * . . _ The Secretary of Energy d ' -- ,. Washington. s>C 20585 October 10, 199' 7 ' ./ .- ~ * The HonorableZ William S. Cohen : Secretary ofDefense Washington, D.C. 20301 -' Jkar Mr. Secretary: /' . " _,.. .- - z ' The Congress recently sent to the President for signature the Energy and Water . Development Appropriations Act,' 1998. Among other provisions, this bill would immediately transfer responsibility for the Formerly' Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) from the Department of Energy to the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Assuming that this transfer becomes law, but without prejudging the President' s decision, the Department of Energy will work with the Corps to ensure a prompt and smooth transition, consistent with the wishes of the

164

Notices 19. LTG William Phillips, Deputy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

429 Federal Register 429 Federal Register / Vol. 76, No. 219 / Monday, November 14, 2011 / Notices 19. LTG William Phillips, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Acquisition, Logistics and Technology), Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army (Acquisition, Logistics and Technology). 20. Mr. Wimpy D. Pybus, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Policy and Logisitics, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army (Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology). 21. Mr. Craig R. Schmauder, Deputy General Counsel (Installation, Environment and Civil Works), Office of the General Counsel. 22. Mr. Karl F. Schneider, Principal Deputy to the Assistant Secretary of the Army (Manpower and Reserve Affairs), Office of Assistant Secretary of the Army, Manpower and Reserve Affairs.

165

Williams, Ronald L From: Kelliher, Joseph  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Kelliher, Joseph Kelliher, Joseph Sent: Wednesday, March 14, 2001 8:56 AM To: Anderson, Margot; Haspel. Abe Subject: Cal conservation plan 6174 DOE012-0199 Williams, Ronald L From: KjerstenS._Drager@ovp.eop.gov%intemet [Kjersten_S._Drager@ovp.eop.gov] Sent: Wednesday, March 14, 2001 10:34 AM To: Kelliher, Joseph; Kolevar, Kevin; Anderson, Margot; kmurphy@osec.doc.gov%intemet: dina.ellis@do.treas.gov%intemet; sue_ellen_wooldridge@ios.doi.gov%intemet; keith.collins@usda.gov 0 /ointemet; joseph.glauber@usda.gov%intemet; galloglysj@state.gov%intemet; mcmanusmt@state.gov%intemet; michelle.poche@osLdot.gov%intemet patricia.stahlschmidt@fema.gov%intemet: brenner.rob@epa.govointemet; symons.jeremy@epa.gov%/ointemet; beale.john@epa.gov% intemet; mpeacock@omb.eop.gov%intemet; Mark_A._Weatherly@omb.eop.gov%intemet;

166

Regional Climate–Weather Research and Forecasting Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The CWRF is developed as a climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) by incorporating numerous improvements in the representation of physical processes and integration of external (top, surface, lateral) forcings that are ...

Xin-Zhong Liang; Min Xu; Xing Yuan; Tiejun Ling; Hyun I. Choi; Feng Zhang; Ligang Chen; Shuyan Liu; Shenjian Su; Fengxue Qiao; Yuxiang He; Julian X. L. Wang; Kenneth E. Kunkel; Wei Gao; Everette Joseph; Vernon Morris; Tsann-Wang Yu; Jimy Dudhia; John Michalakes

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...

Dean P. Gulezian

1981-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

Mohaghegh, Shahab

169

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

170

Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.

Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

172

LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts

Feinberg, Eugene A.

173

Factors Driving Prices & Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...

174

Modeling and Forecasting Aurora  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.

Dirk Lummerzheim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

175

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

William S. Maharay: Before the Subcommittee on Government Management,  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

William S. Maharay: Before the Subcommittee on Government William S. Maharay: Before the Subcommittee on Government Management, Organization and Procurement Committee on Oversight and Government Reform U.S. House William S. Maharay: Before the Subcommittee on Government Management, Organization and Procurement Committee on Oversight and Government Reform U.S. House March 20, 2007 Before the Subcommittee on Government Management, Organization and Procurement Committee on Oversight and Government Reform U.S. House Testimony of William S. Maharay, Deputy Inspector General for Audit Services U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Testimony on issues associated with the FY 2005 and 2006 Audits of the Department of Energy's Financial Statements. Over the years, the Office of Inspector General has conducted and overseen a number of reviews of the

177

5 Questions for Indoor Environment Group's William Fisk  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

5 Questions for Indoor Environment Group's William Fisk 5 Questions for Indoor Environment Group's William Fisk William Fisk January 2014 Quantifying the Economic Implications of Indoor Air on Energy Efficiency, Performance, and Health William Fisk is a senior scientist, mechanical engineer, and leader of the Indoor Environment Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). During his 33 years at the lab, he has researched the interrelated issues of building energy performance, ventilation, indoor environmental quality (IEQ), and occupant health and performance. His research focuses primarily on energy efficient methods of maintaining and improving ventilation and IEQ in buildings and on quantifying the impacts of building ventilation and IEQ on health and performance. He is a fellow of ASHRAE, a member of the

178

William S. Maharay: Before the Subcommittee on Government Management,  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

William S. Maharay: Before the Subcommittee on Government William S. Maharay: Before the Subcommittee on Government Management, Organization and Procurement Committee on Oversight and Government Reform U.S. House William S. Maharay: Before the Subcommittee on Government Management, Organization and Procurement Committee on Oversight and Government Reform U.S. House March 20, 2007 Before the Subcommittee on Government Management, Organization and Procurement Committee on Oversight and Government Reform U.S. House Testimony of William S. Maharay, Deputy Inspector General for Audit Services U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Testimony on issues associated with the FY 2005 and 2006 Audits of the Department of Energy's Financial Statements. Over the years, the Office of Inspector General has conducted and overseen a number of reviews of the

179

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

180

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): “OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner, G. , and U. K.2005): “Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Forecasting in the Presence of Level Shifts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 : 537-560. Hamilton JD.430. Harvey AC. 1989. Forecasting, structural time seriesMH, Timmermann A. 1994. Forecasting stock returns: An

Smith, Aaron

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

Short-term load forecasting using lifting scheme and ARIMA models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-term load forecasting is achieved using a lifting scheme and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The lifting scheme is a general and flexible approach for constructing bi-orthogonal wavelets that are usually in the spatial ... Keywords: Autoregressive integrated moving average model, Back propagation network, Lifting scheme, Multi-revolution analysis, Short-term load forecasting, Wavelet transform

Cheng-Ming Lee; Chia-Nan Ko

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

FROM ANALYSTS ' EARNINGS FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We examine the accuracy and bias of intrinsic equity prices estimated from three accounting-based valuation models using analyst’s earnings forecasts over a four-year horizon. The models are: (a) the earnings capitalization model, (b) the residual income model without a terminal value, and (c) the residual income model with a terminal value that assumes residual income will grow beyond the horizon at a constant rate determined from the expected residual income growth rate over the forecast horizon. Our analysis is based on valuation errors that are calculated by comparing estimated prices to actual prices. We contribute to the literature by examining whether: (i) the analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book value and dividends, (ii) the use of firm specific growth rates in terminal value calculations results in more unbiased and accurate valuations than the use of constant growth rates, and (iii) different models perform better under different ex-ante conditions. We find that analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book values and dividends. Each of the models that we used has valuation errors that decline monotonically as the horizon increases implying that earnings forecasts at each horizon convey new value relevant information. We cannot find a clear advantage to using firm specific growth rates instead of a constant rate of 4 % across all sample

Theodore Sougiannis; Takashi Yaekura

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast

185

Hybridization of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with probabilistic neural networks (PNNs)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are one of the most important time series models applied in financial market forecasting over the past three decades. Improving forecasting especially time series forecasting accuracy is an important ... Keywords: Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Hybrid models, Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs), Time series forecasting

Mehdi Khashei; Mehdi Bijari; Gholam Ali Raissi Ardali

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

187

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

Mohaghegh, Shahab

188

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW

189

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others

190

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

191

3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 3, 2145­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC ­ Department­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

192

4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OSD 4, 189­212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

193

FINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

predecessors to forecast stock prices and manage portfolios for approximately 3 years.) We examineFINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS SAM MAHFOUD and GANESH MANI LBS Capital Management entitled Genetic Algorithms for Inductive Learning). Time-series forecasting is a special type

Boetticher, Gary D.

194

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

195

Forecast of auroral activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting

A. T. Y. Lui

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Mountrail-Williams Elec Coop | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Mountrail-Williams Elec Coop Mountrail-Williams Elec Coop Jump to: navigation, search Name Mountrail-Williams Elec Coop Place North Dakota Utility Id 20413 Utility Location Yes Ownership C NERC Location MRO NERC MRO Yes Activity Transmission Yes Activity Buying Transmission Yes Activity Distribution Yes References EIA Form EIA-861 Final Data File for 2010 - File1_a[1] Energy Information Administration Form 826[2] LinkedIn Connections CrunchBase Profile No CrunchBase profile. Create one now! This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Utility Rate Schedules Grid-background.png Air conditioning rate Grain Drying Program Commercial Heat rate Residential rate Residential Wind Energy Average Rates Residential: $0.0717/kWh Commercial: $0.0885/kWh Industrial: $0.0703/kWh The following table contains monthly sales and revenue data for

197

City of Williams - AZ, Arizona (Utility Company) | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Williams - AZ, Arizona (Utility Company) Williams - AZ, Arizona (Utility Company) Jump to: navigation, search Name City of Williams - AZ Place Arizona Utility Id 56535 Utility Location Yes Ownership M NERC Location WECC NERC WECC Yes Activity Buying Transmission Yes Activity Distribution Yes Activity Buying Distribution Yes References EIA Form EIA-861 Final Data File for 2010 - File1_a[1] LinkedIn Connections CrunchBase Profile No CrunchBase profile. Create one now! This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. Utility Rate Schedules Grid-background.png City owned Lights(20,000 Lumens,400 W MV-Pole) Lighting City owned Lights(4,000 Lumens-Pole) Lighting City owned Lights(7,000 Lumens, 175 W MV-Pole) Lighting Customer owned Lights(20,000 Lumens 400 W MV-Pole) Commercial Customer owned Lights(4,000 Lumens-Pole) Lighting

198

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998  

SciTech Connect

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

NONE

1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

A Comparison of Forecast Error Generators for Modeling Wind and Load Uncertainty  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents four algorithms to generate random forecast error time series, including a truncated-normal distribution model, a state-space based Markov model, a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, and a stochastic-optimization based model. The error time series are used to create real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast time series that statistically match historically observed forecasting data sets, used for variable generation integration studies. A comparison is made using historical DA load forecast and actual load values to generate new sets of DA forecasts with similar stoical forecast error characteristics. This paper discusses and compares the capabilities of each algorithm to preserve the characteristics of the historical forecast data sets.

Lu, Ning; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.

2013-12-18T23:59:59.000Z

200

Microsoft PowerPoint - Williams_IPRC_Presentation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

ZONE ZONE FREEZING STUDY FOR PYROCHEMICAL PROCESS WASTE MINIMIZATION ZONE FREEZING STUDY FOR PYROCHEMICAL PROCESS WASTE MINIMIZATION Ammon N. Williams and Supathorn Phongikaroon University of Idaho Michael F. Simpson Idaho National Laboratory 2012 International Pyroprocessing Research Conference Ammon N. Williams and Supathorn Phongikaroon University of Idaho Michael F. Simpson Idaho National Laboratory 2012 International Pyroprocessing Research Conference Outline * Background, Motivation, and Goals * Experimental Method * Experimental Results * Model Development * Modeling Results * Conclusions and Recommendations * Acknowledgments 2 Concept of Advanced Pyrochemical Process Chopped Driver or Blanket Fuel Uranium Metal Metal Waste Ceramic Waste Electrorefiner and Product Refinement Recycled High Purity Electrolyte 3 Contaminated Electrolyte Ion Exchange

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
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201

William F. (Rick) Brandes 8075 Leehaven Road  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of hazardous priority chemicals from commerce through voluntary reduction efforts. In addition, #12;the branch million pounds of lead from the environment. Mr. Brandes additionally championed the integration of environmental endpoints into the existing system of Lean Manufacturing principles. This action was recognized

202

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Information and Inference in Econometrics: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Application: Forecasting Equity Premium . . . . . . . . . .2.6.1 Forecasting4 Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models 4.1

Tu, Yundong

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

SANS for Biology William T. Heller, Ph.D.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

SANS for Biology A Tutorial William T. Heller, Ph.D. SNS-HFIR Users Meeting October 10, 2007 #12 probed Detector: Collects the neutrons scattered by the sample SNS and HFIR have large area detectors #12;SANS Instruments The HFIR SANS instrument control program is based on Spice, originally developed

206

Job Security and Productivity: Evidence From William Leung  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Job Security and Productivity: Evidence From Academics William Leung Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley May 3, 2009 Abstract: How does job security influence productivity? I efficiency, it is important to know what institutions motivate workers to work hard. Job security is a topic

Sadoulet, Elisabeth

207

Network Externalities and Standardization: A Classroom Demonstration Christopher Ruebeck, Sarah Stafford, Nicola Tynan, William Alpert, Gwendolyn Ball, and Bridget Butkevich*  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Stafford, Nicola Tynan, William Alpert, Gwendolyn Ball, and Bridget Butkevich* Abstract: This paper College, Easton, PA 18042, ruebeckc@lafayette.edu; Stafford: Department of Economics, College of William

Portegys, Thomas E.

208

Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies ’ finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.

Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

OpenEI Community - energy data + forecasting  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

FRED FRED http://en.openei.org/community/group/fred Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. energy data + forecasting Fri, 22 Jun 2012 15:30:20 +0000 Dbrodt 34

210

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

211

Wind forecasting objectives for utility schedulers and energy traders  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The wind energy industry and electricity producers can benefit in a number of ways from increased wind forecast accuracy. Higher confidence in the reliability of wind forecasts can help persuade an electric utility to increase the penetration of wind energy into its operating system and to augment the capacity value of wind electric generation. Reliable forecasts can also assist daily energy traders employed by utilities in marketing the available and anticipated wind energy to power pools and other energy users. As the number of utilities with wind energy experience grows, and wind energy penetration levels increase, the need for reliable wind forecasts will likely grow as well. This period of wind energy growth also coincides with advances in computer weather prediction technology that could lead to more accurate wind forecasts. Thus, it is important to identify the type of forecast information needed by utility schedulers and energy traders. This step will help develop approaches to the challenge of wind forecasting that will result in useful products being supplied to utilities or other energy generating entities. This paper presents the objectives, approach, and current findings of a US Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory (DOE/NREL) initiative to develop useful wind forecasting tools for utilities involved with wind energy generation. The focus of this initiative thus far has been to learn about the needs of prospective utility users. NREL representatives conducted a series of onsite interviews with key utility staff, usually schedulers and research planners, at seven US utilities. The purpose was to ascertain information on actual scheduling and trading procedures, and how utilities could integrate wind forecasting into these activities.

Schwartz, M.N. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States); Bailey, B.H. [AWS Scientific, Inc., Albany, NY (United States)

1998-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Chapter 11 Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish between the information set for ‘normal forces ’ and the one for ‘break drivers’, then outline sources of potential information. Relevant non-linear, dynamic models facing multiple breaks can have more candidate variables than observations, so we discuss automatic model selection. As a failure to accurately forecast breaks remains likely, we augment our strategy by modelling breaks during their progress, and consider robust forecasting devices.

Jennifer L. Castle; Nicholas W. P. Fawcett; David F. Hendry

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...

Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or

215

Impact of Wind PowerImpact of Wind Power Forecasting on Unit  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Impact of Wind PowerImpact of Wind Power Forecasting on Unit Commitment and Dispatchp Jianhui Wang and University of Porto, Portugal 8th Int. Wind Integration Workshop, Bremen, Germany, Oct. 14 2009 #12;Outline of the information in wind power forecasts in system and market operationsin system and market operations Stochastic

Hudson, Randy

216

Aviation forecasting and systems analyses  

SciTech Connect

The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.

Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Studies of inflation and forecasting.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This dissertation contains five research papers in the area of applied econometrics. The two broad themes of the research are inflation and forecasting. The first… (more)

Bermingham, Colin

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

Lew, D.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Geographic Information System At U.S. West Region (Williams & Deangelo,  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Williams & Deangelo, Williams & Deangelo, 2008) Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Exploration Activity: Geographic Information System At U.S. West Region (Williams & Deangelo, 2008) Exploration Activity Details Location U.S. West Region Exploration Technique Geographic Information System Activity Date Usefulness useful DOE-funding Unknown References Colin F. Williams, Jacob DeAngelo (2008) Mapping Geothermal Potential In The Western United States Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Geographic_Information_System_At_U.S._West_Region_(Williams_%26_Deangelo,_2008)&oldid=390068" Category: Exploration Activities What links here Related changes Special pages Printable version Permanent link Browse properties 429 Throttled (bot load)

220

Data Acquisition-Manipulation At U.S. West Region (Williams & Deangelo,  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Williams & Deangelo, Williams & Deangelo, 2008) Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Exploration Activity: Data Acquisition-Manipulation At U.S. West Region (Williams & Deangelo, 2008) Exploration Activity Details Location U.S. West Region Exploration Technique Data Acquisition-Manipulation Activity Date Usefulness useful DOE-funding Unknown References Colin F. Williams, Jacob DeAngelo (2008) Mapping Geothermal Potential In The Western United States Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Data_Acquisition-Manipulation_At_U.S._West_Region_(Williams_%26_Deangelo,_2008)&oldid=387276" Category: Exploration Activities What links here Related changes Special pages Printable version Permanent link Browse properties About us Disclaimers

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

On the Prediction of Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, ...

T. N. Palmer; S. Tibaldi

1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...

Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts… (more)

Sakva, Denys

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

What Is the True Value of Forecasts?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to ...

Antony Millner

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

225

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The ...

Lance F. Bosart

2003-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

228

Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One goal of weather and climate forecasting is to inform decision making. Effective communication of forecasts to various sectors of the public is essential for meeting that goal, yet studies repeatedly show that forecasts are not well understood ...

Karen Pennesi

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

229

Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A cloud model ensemble forecasting approach is developed to create forecasts that describe the range and distribution of thunderstorm lifetimes that may be expected to occur on a particular day. Such forecasts are crucial for anticipating severe ...

Kimberly L. Elmore; David J. Stensrud; Kenneth C. Crawford

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 1–4 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, ...

Andreas P. Weigel; Daniel Baggenstos; Mark A. Liniger; Frédéric Vitart; Christof Appenzeller

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

232

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

233

A Forecast for the California Labor Market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

issue for the state. A Forecast for the California Laborto Go? ” The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation andAngeles: UCLA Anderson Forecast: Nation 1.1 – 1.9. Dhawan,

Mitchell, Daniel J. B.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK STAFFREPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400.................................................................................. 9 Sources of Forecast Error....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2

235

Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...

David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality of such forecasts can ...

Cristina Primo; Christopher A. T. Ferro; Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

238

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical modeling Celia Frank and Ashish Garg, USA Les Sztandera Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, PA, USA Keywords Apparel, Forecasting average (MA), auto- regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since

Raheja, Amar

239

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Forecasting Electric Vehicle Costs with Experience Curves  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

April, 5. R 2~1. Dino. "Forecasting the Price Evolution of 1ElectromcProducts," Ioumal of Forecasting, ĄoL4, No I, 1985.costs and a set of forecasting tools that can be refined as

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...

Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both sea ice forecast models and methods to measure their skill are needed for operational sea ice forecasting. Two simple sea ice models are described and tested here. Four different measures of skill are also tested. The forecasts from the ...

Robert W. Grumbine

1998-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

A Comparison of Forecast Error Generators for Modeling Wind and Load Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents four algorithms to generate random forecast error time series. The performance of four algorithms is compared. The error time series are used to create real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast time series that statistically match historically observed forecasting data sets used in power grid operation to study the net load balancing need in variable generation integration studies. The four algorithms are truncated-normal distribution models, state-space based Markov models, seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, and a stochastic-optimization based approach. The comparison is made using historical DA load forecast and actual load values to generate new sets of DA forecasts with similar stoical forecast error characteristics (i.e., mean, standard deviation, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation). The results show that all methods generate satisfactory results. One method may preserve one or two required statistical characteristics better the other methods, but may not preserve other statistical characteristics as well compared with the other methods. Because the wind and load forecast error generators are used in wind integration studies to produce wind and load forecasts time series for stochastic planning processes, it is sometimes critical to use multiple methods to generate the error time series to obtain a statistically robust result. Therefore, this paper discusses and compares the capabilities of each algorithm to preserve the characteristics of the historical forecast data sets.

Lu, Ning; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.

2013-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

245

Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

When professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analyzed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.

Allan W. Gregory; James Yetman; Jel Codes C E; Robert Eggert; Fred Joutz

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

247

A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

248

The Honorable Robert E. Williams 44 W. Washington Street  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

SEC ; : ' SEC ; : ' ,-<- I ;;;s The Honorable Robert E. Williams 44 W. Washington Street Shelbyville, Indiana 46176 Dear Mayor Williams: Secretary of Energy Hazel O'Leary has announced a new approach to openness in the Department of Energy (DOE) and its communications with the public. In support of this initiative, we are pleased to forward the enclosed information related to the former General Electric Co. site in your jurisdiction that performed work for DOE or its predecessor agencies. This information is provided for your information, use, and retention. DOE's Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program is responsible for identification of sites used by DOE's predecessor agencies, determining their current radiological condition and, where it has authority, performing

249

Williams Elementary and Middle School Wind Project | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Middle School Wind Project Middle School Wind Project Jump to: navigation, search Name Williams Elementary and Middle School Wind Project Facility Williams Elementary and Middle School Sector Wind energy Facility Type Community Wind Location AZ Coordinates 35.253555°, -112.19558° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":35.253555,"lon":-112.19558,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

250

Low Dose Radiation Research Program: William F. Morgan  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

William F. Morgan William F. Morgan Pacific Northwest National Laboratory PO Box 999 Richland, Washington About this Project Projects Using a Low LET Electron Microbeam to Investigate Non-Targeted Effects of Low Dose Radiation. Optimizing the Scientific, Regulatory, and Societal Impact of the DOE Low Dose Radiation Research Program A Mechanistic Study of the Radiation Quality Dependence of Bystander Effects in Human Cells. Genetic Factors Affecting Susceptibility to Low-Dose Radiation Mechanisms of Adaptive Responses and Genomic Instability Induced by Low Dose/ Low Dose Rate Radiation Technical Abstracts 2006 Workshop: Using a Low-LET Electron Microbeam to Investigate Non-Targeted Effects of Low Dose Radiation Sowa, M.B., Goetz, W., Baulch, J., and Morgan, W.F. Genetic Factors Affecting Susceptibility to Low-Dose Radiation

251

W. Alexander Williams, Ph.D Designation and Certification Manager  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

March 20, 1995 March 20, 1995 W. Alexander Williams, Ph.D Designation and Certification Manager EM-421 Quince Orchard U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585-0002 L -=kj SUBJECT: FINAL REPORT-RADIOLOGICAL SURVEY OF THE F AMERICAN MANUFACTURING COMPANY OF TEXA WORTH, TEXAS I ,d Sl I lRMER , FORT Dear Dr. Williams: The Environmental,Survey and Site Assessment Program (ESSAP) of the C for Science and Education (ORISE) conducted radiological survey activii American Manufacturing Company of Texas Site in Fort Worth, Texas October 3 through 5, 1994. The survey activities consisted of document revi surface activity measurements, smears for removable activity, exposure rate m soil and miscellaneous sampling. k Ridge Institute :s at the former wing the period

252

Background pollution forecast over bulgaria  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...

D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

253

Frequency Dependence in Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method is proposed to calculate measures of forecast skill for high, medium and low temporal frequency variations in the atmosphere. This method is applied to a series of 128 consecutive 1 to 10-day forecasts produced at NMC with their ...

H. M. van Den Dool; Suranjana Saha

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

254

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate… (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Title Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication...

256

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

257

Operational pollution forecast for the region of Bulgaria  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational prototype of the Integrated Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System is presented. This version of the system is limited to relatively low resolution (10 km) but covers all Bulgaria. It is based on the US EPA Models-3 System (MM5

D. Syrakov; I. Etropolska; M. Prodanova; K. Ganev; N. Miloshev; K. Slavov

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Influence of GPS Precipitable Water Vapor Retrievals on Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting in Southern California  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The effects of precipitable water vapor (PWV) retrievals from the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) on quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill are examined over two flood-prone regions of Southern California: Santa ...

Steven Marcus; Jinwon Kim; Toshio Chin; David Danielson; Jayme Laber

2007-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

The influence of frequency shifts in microwave sounder channels on NWP analyses and forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The sensitivity of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) analysis and forecast accuracies with respect to frequency shift in microwave passbands is quantified through a series of observing system experiments using the ECMWF integrated assimilation ...

Carole Peubey; William Bell

260

The Liouville Equation and Its Potential Usefulness for the Prediction of Forecast Skill. Part I: Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Liouville equation provides the framework for the consistent and comprehensive treatment of the uncertainty inherent in meteorological forecasts. This equation expresses the conservation of the phase-space integral of the number density of ...

Martin Ehrendorfer

1994-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Characterization of Weekly Cumulative Rainfall Forecasts over Meteorological Subdivisions of India Using a GCM  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weekly cumulative rainfall forecasts were made for the meteorologically homogeneous areas of the Indian subcontinent, divided into meteorological subdivisions, by performing 7-day integrations of the operational Indian T80 Global Spectral Model ...

S. A. Saseendran; S. V. Singh; L. S. Rathore; Someshwar Das

2002-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

The Impact of El Nińo on an Ensemble of Extended-Range Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Two ensembles of 90-day forecasts for 1982–83 have been made with the UK Meteorological Office 11-layer atmospheric general circulation model. Each ensemble comprised three integrations initialized one day apart, using analyses from December ...

J. A. Owen; T. N. Palmer

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast

264

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Techniques for Use in Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Quantitative hydrologic forecasting usually requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. First, it is important to accurately measure the precipitation falling over a particular watershed of interest. Second, ...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Michael D. Hudlow

1984-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l­ Load forecast methodology ­ Drivers of the forecast f i­ Treatment of conservation ­ Incorporating impact of weather ­ Forecast for 2019 #12;Regional Loads (MWA and MW)Regional Loads (MWA and MW

266

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

267

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia

268

Combining forecast weights: Why and how?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions

Yip Chee Yin; Ng Kok-Haur; Lim Hock-Eam

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY dmitry.kucharavy@insa-strasbourg.fr Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

270

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

271

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form

272

Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates

273

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

274

A Cosmology Forecast Toolkit -- CosmoLib  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The package CosmoLib is a combination of a cosmological Boltzmann code and a simulation toolkit to forecast the constraints on cosmological parameters from future observations. In this paper we describe the released linear-order part of the package. We discuss the stability and performance of the Boltzmann code. This is written in Newtonian gauge and including dark energy perturbations. In CosmoLib the integrator that computes the CMB angular power spectrum is optimized for a $\\ell$-by-$\\ell$ brute-force integration, which is useful for studying inflationary models predicting sharp features in the primordial power spectrum of metric fluctuations. The numerical code and its documentation are available at http://www.cita.utoronto.ca/~zqhuang/CosmoLib.

Zhiqi Huang

2012-01-28T23:59:59.000Z

275

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

276

Fuzzy forecasting with DNA computing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

There are many forecasting techniques including: exponential smoothing, ARIMA model, GARCH model, neural networks and genetic algorithm, etc. Since financial time series may be influenced by many factors, conventional model based techniques and hard ...

Don Jyh-Fu Jeng; Junzo Watada; Berlin Wu; Jui-Yu Wu

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

Sampling Errors in Seasonal Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The limited numbers of start dates and ensemble sizes in seasonal forecasts lead to sampling errors in predictions. Defining the magnitude of these sampling errors would be useful for end users as well as informing decisions on resource ...

Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

Scoring Rules for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of probabilistic forecast verification is approached from a theoretical point of view starting from three basic desiderata: additivity, exclusive dependence on physical observations (“locality”), and strictly proper behavior. By ...

Riccardo Benedetti

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

279

Wavelets and Field Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current field forecast verification measures are inadequate, primarily because they compress the comparison between two complex spatial field processes into one number. Discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) applied to analysis and contemporaneous ...

William M. Briggs; Richard A. Levine

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity ...

Peter Lynch

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

Modeling-Computer Simulations At U.S. West Region (Williams ...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Search Page Edit History Facebook icon Twitter icon Modeling-Computer Simulations At U.S. West Region (Williams & Deangelo, 2008) Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL...

283

Data Acquisition-Manipulation At U.S. West Region (Williams ...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Exploration Activity: Data Acquisition-Manipulation At U.S. West Region (Williams & Deangelo, 2008) Exploration...

284

The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...

Marion P. Mittermaier

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numerical–statistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value ...

Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near–real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...

Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...

J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...

Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Differences of opinion exist among forecasters—and between forecasters and users—regarding the meaning of the phrase “good (bad) weather forecasts.” These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or understanding concerning the ...

Allan H. Murphy

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, fire managers need ...

Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Light truck forecasts  

SciTech Connect

The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.

Liepins, G.E.

1979-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Strategies and Decision Support Systems for Integrating Variable...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

understanding of the operational impacts of wind integration and how wind power forecast is being used today. The identified practices from a broad group of utilities can be...

294

Intern experience with William F. Guyton & Associates: an internship report  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This report is a review of the author's experience as an intern with William F. Guyton & Associates. William F. Guyton & Associates is a consulting groundwater hydrology firm with offices in Austin and Houston, Texas. The intern worked at the main office in Austin for the duration of the internship. The author worked on a variety of projects during the internship. These projects encompassed general groundwater studies, computer simulation, technical analyses of aquifer parameters, and inspection of water well construction and testing. General groundwater studies involved the collection of water well construction and chemical analyses data. The author wrote several computer codes to handle basic computations, and the author used several existing finite difference codes to simulate groundwater movement. The technical analyses of pumping test data were analyzed by the author to determine aquifer parameters. The field work involved on-site inspection of water well construction and involved quality control of the pumping test after construction. The author interacted with various agencies of the state and federal government. This interaction was necessary to many of the projects. The collection of water well data and the use of the finite difference codes gave the author the opportunity to obtain knowledge of the daily operations of these agencies.

Stevens, William Scott, 1953-

1980-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

Base Resource Forecasts - Power Marketing - Sierra Nevada Region...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Marketing > Base Resource Forecasts Base Resource Forecasts Note: Annual, rolling (monthly for 12 months), base resource forecasts are posted when they become available. Annual...

296

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...

297

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute of89 (1999) 109—129 Forecasting new product penetration with ?

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

298

Overestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a TDM Policy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

M. , Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy.change and social forecasting: the case of telecommuting asOverestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a

Tal, Gil

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Forecasting US CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

F. Hendry (eds), Economic Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing,W. : 2002, Macroeconomic forecasting using di?usion indexes,2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country

Steinhauser, Ralf; Auffhammer, Maximilian

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

NoVaS Transformations: Flexible Inference for Volatility Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Correlation Forecasting” in G. Elliott, C.W.J.Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland,Transformations”, forthcoming in Forecasting in the Presence

Politis, Dimitris N; Thomakos, Dimitrios D

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute ofchoice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel89 (1999) 109—129 Forecasting new product penetration with

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J.2000), Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J.F.F. (2006), The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability

Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

P, Fitzgerald G: Regression forecasting of patient admissionapproach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergencySJ, Haug PJ, Snow GL: Forecasting daily patient volumes in

Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

Forecasting Danerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

costs could alter forecasting skill and the predictors thatForecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofOn-Line Working Paper Series Forecasting Dangerous Inmate

Berk, Richard A.; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, John-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible

Richard A. Berk; Susan B. Sorenson; Yan He

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

306

Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Goulias Page 84 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:Goulias Page 80 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:L. Demographic Forecasting with a Dynamic Stochastic

Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Goulias, Konstadinos G.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind Generation by a Dynamic  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind forecasting. I. INTRODUCTION HE actual large-scale integration of wind energy in several European countries enhance the position of wind energy compared to other dispatchable forms of generation. Predicting

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

308

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

310

VBH-0079 - In the Matter of William Cor | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

VBH-0079 - In the Matter of William Cor VBH-0079 - In the Matter of William Cor VBH-0079 - In the Matter of William Cor This Decision involves a whistleblower complaint filed by William Cor under the Department of Energy's (DOE) Contractor Employee Protection Program. From August 1998 to September 2001, Mr. Cor was employed as a glovebox systems engineer at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), one of three national laboratories operated by the University of California (UC) for the DOE. Mr. Cor alleges that LANL management retaliated against him for activity protected under the DOE Contractor Employee Protection Program. vbh0079.pdf More Documents & Publications TBU-0045 - In the Matter of William Cor TBH-0111 - In the Matter of Eugene N. Kilmer TBZ-0111 - IN THE MATTER OF EUGENE N. KILMER

311

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

A Review of Numerical Forecast Guidance for Hurricane Hugo  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerical forecast guidance for Hurricane Hugo from the National Meteorological Center is examined, as well as forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. No one forecast product ...

John H. Ward

1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

313

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery orders using forecasts provided by their customers. Our goal is to improve the supplier's operations through a better un- derstanding of the customers's forecast behavior. Unfortunately, customer forecasts

Murphy, Robert F.

314

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...

Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Mr. William R. Augustine Deputy Chief Programs Management Division  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

)N i-i 5 - "i )N i-i 5 - "i Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 Mr. William R. Augustine Deputy Chief Programs Management Division U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Department of the Army Washington, D. C. 203 14- 1000 -' . UC-i -, :? . -0' /, \ ._ ' .;' Dear Mr. Augustine: I am writing to you as a follow-up to discussions our staffs have had regarding two former Department of the Army facilities in the Formerly Used Defense Sites (FUDS) program where the former Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) also conducted activities. These sites are the former Marion Engineer Depot and the former Scioto Ordnance Plant, both just outside of Marion, Ohio. The Department of Energy (DOE) has records relating to both of these facilities. Since there has been public concern regarding the possibility of residual radioactivity at

316

Designation Survey - Palmerton, Pa. Ore Storage Site William Bibb  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

Designation Survey - Palmerton, Pa. Ore Storage Site Designation Survey - Palmerton, Pa. Ore Storage Site William Bibb Oak Ridge Operations Office Based on the information furnished in Aerospace's Review of the.subject site (Attachment 1) and the ORKL/RASA (Attachment 2), it Is requested that designation survey of the Palmerton Ore Storage Pennsylvania. The survey should be detailed to and subsurface data to make up for the lack of the previous AEC surveys and in keeping with ORNL/RASA group should furnish a draft survey approval prior to conducting any survey activities. If there are any questions, please call Edward DeLaney 04 FTS 253-4716. Arthur J. Whitman / '/ Division of Facility and Site ' Deconrnissioning P,rojects Office of Nuclear Energy : 2 Attachments I bee: I E. Keller, OR, w/attachs:

317

VERIFICATION SURVEY OF THE BAKER AND WILLIAMS WAREHOUSES  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

~ *-,-' .r_~, ~ *-,-' .r_~, VERIFICATION SURVEY OF THE BAKER AND WILLIAMS WAREHOUSES BUILDING 513-519 NEW YORK, NEW YORK Prepared by W. C. Adams Environmental Survey and Site Assessment Program Energy/Environment Systems Division Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-0117 Prepared for the Office of Environmental Restoration U.S. Department of Energy FINAL REPORT JUNE 1994 This report is based on work performed under contract number DE-AC05-760R00033 with the U.S. Department of Energy. Baker arId Wi,,iMI Wsrchouwl-Vcrification June 28, ,994 - ,I I_ ..I .- VERIFICATION SURVEY OF THE BAKER AND W ILLIAMS WAREHOUSES BUILDING 513-519 NEW YORK, NEW YORK Prepared by: ' J .,,,~ ' . W . C. Adams, Project Leader Date: Environmental Survey and Site Assessment Program

318

Participants: William Naughton, COHMED Bill Sherman, NE HLRW Task Force  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

conference call May 27, 1998 conference call May 27, 1998 Participants: William Naughton, COHMED Bill Sherman, NE HLRW Task Force Bob Fronczak, AAR Mike Butler, UETC Ray English, DOE-NR George Ruberg, UETC Kevin Blackwell, FRA Markus Popa, DOE-RW Sandy Covi, UP The Rail Topic Group is currently in a transitional mode, moving simultaneously toward closure of the two rail information matrices, Comparison of CVSA Recommended National Procedures and Out-Of-Service Criteria for the Enhanced Safety Inspection of Commercial Highway Vehicles Transporting Transuranics, Spent Nuclear Fuel, and High Level Waste to Rail Inspection Standards, and Rail and Highway Regulations Relative to the Transportation of Radioactive Materials and their Applicability to States, Tribes, Shippers, and Carriers, (both

319

Oral Histories: Health Physicist William J. Bair, Ph.D.  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

3 3 HUMAN RADIATION STUDIES: REMEMBERING THE EARLY YEARS Oral History of Health Physicist William J. Bair, Ph.D. Conducted October 14, 1994 United States Department of Energy Office of Human Radiation Experiments June 1995 CONTENTS Foreword Short Biography Graduate Studies at University of Rochester AEC-Funded Research at University of Rochester Use of Human Subjects at University of Rochester AEC Direction of University of Rochester Research Contacts With Researchers Into Radiation Effects No Knowledge of Uranium Injections at Rochester Beginning a Career at Hanford Radionuclide Inhalation Studies at Hanford Use of Animals in Radiation Studies Identifying Health Effects of Inhaled Radionuclides Expanded Customer Base for Inhalation Studies Limited Involvement With Human Studies

320

CHARACTERIZATION SURVEY OF THE BAKER AND WILLIAMS WAREHOUSES  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

CHARACTERIZATION SURVEY CHARACTERIZATION SURVEY OF THE BAKER AND WILLIAMS WAREHOUSES BUILDING 513-519 NEW YORK, NEW YORK Prepared by W. C. Adams Environmental Survey and Site Assessment Program Energy/Environment System Division Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-0117 Prepared for the Office of Environmental Restoration U.S. Department of Energy FINAL REPORT DECEMBER 1993 This report is based on work performed under contract number DE-AC05-760R00033 with the U.S. Department of Energy. .- .- .- CHARACTERIZATION SURVEY OF THE BAKER AND W ILLIAMS WAREHOUSES BUILDING 513419 NEW YORK, NEW YORK Prepared by: Date: W . C. Adams, Project Leader i L!J!?J Environmental Survey and Site Assessment Program Reviewed by: W . L. Beck, Acting Laboratory Manager

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Glassy Aging with Modified Kohlrausch-Williams-Watts Form  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this report we address the question whether aging in the non equilibrium glassy state is controlled by the equilibrium alpha-relaxation process which occur at temperatures above Tg. Recently Lunkenheimer et. al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 055702 (2005)] proposed a model for the glassy aging data of dielectric relaxation using a modified Kohlrausch-Williams-Watts (KWW) form. The aging time dependence of the relaxation time is defined by these authors through a functional relation involving the corresponding frequency but the stretching exponent is same as the alpha-relaxation stretching exponent. We present here an alternative functional form directly involving the relaxation time itself. The proposed model fits the data of Lunkenheimer et. al. perfectly with a stretching exponent different from the alpha-relaxation stretching exponent.

Bhaskar Sen Gupta; Shankar P. Das

2007-12-27T23:59:59.000Z

322

The RAW Filter: An Improvement to the Robert–Asselin Filter in Semi-Implicit Integrations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Errors caused by discrete time stepping may be an important component of total model error in contemporary atmospheric and oceanic simulations. To reduce time-stepping errors in leapfrog integrations, the Robert–Asselin–Williams (RAW) filter was ...

Paul D. Williams

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical ...

Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson; Ted L. Tsui

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society “ENSO forecast plume” during the 2002–11 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Local Forecast Communication In The Altiplano  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts play an important role in planting decisions for Andean peasant producers. Predictions of the upcoming cropping season determine when, where, and what farmers will plant. This research looks at the sources of forecast information used ...

Jere L. Gilles; Corinne Valdivia

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...

Lance F. Bosart

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (...

Andreas Röpnack; Andreas Hense; Christoph Gebhardt; Detlev Majewski

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

328

Value from Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explores the objective application of ambiguity information, that is, the uncertainty in forecast probability derived from an ensemble. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with forecast uncertainty ...

Mark S. Allen; F. Anthony Eckel

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Forecaster Workstation Design: Concepts and Issues  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Some basic ideas about designing a meteorological workstation for operational weather forecasting are presented, in part as a complement to the recently published discussion of workstation design by R. R. Hoffman. Scientific weather forecasting ...

Charles A. Doswell III

1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

330

Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...

Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem

2004-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

331

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing

de Lijser, Peter

332

Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

Trepte, Kai

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...

Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because ...

Eric Gilleland; David Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Barbara Casati; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, ...

Emily Wallace; Alberto Arribas

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for River Basins  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology has been formulated to aid a field forecaster in preparing probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for river basins. The format of probabilistic QPF is designed to meet three requirements: (i) it is compatible with ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; William J. Drzal; Theresa Rossi Drake; James C. Weyman; Louis A. Giordano

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

A General Framework for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described. For further elaboration of the framework, two factorizations of the joint distribution are investigated: 1) the calibration-...

Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler

1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

339

Management of supply chain: an alternative modelling technique for forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view

Datta, Shoumen

2007-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

340

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy and Economic Outlook Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

WILLIAM RAINEY HARPER COLLEGE CATALOG YEAR: 2011-2012 NIU CATALOG: 2011-2012 DATE: JULY 2011  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

WILLIAM RAINEY HARPER COLLEGE CATALOG YEAR: 2011-2012 NIU CATALOG: 2011-2012 DATE: JULY 2011, GE HUM F2 902 133 NON-WESTERN ART EL F2 903N #12;WILLIAM RAINEY HARPER COLLEGE CATALOG YEAR: 2011 ACCOUNTING FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS EL #12;WILLIAM RAINEY HARPER COLLEGE CATALOG YEAR: 2011-2012 NIU

Kostic, Milivoje M.

342

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.

343

Forecasting Techniques Utilized by the Forecast Branch of the National Meteorological Center During a Major Convective Rainfall Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Meteorologists within the Forecast Branch (FB) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) produce operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). These manual forecasts are prepared utilizing various forecasting techniques, which are ...

Theodore W. Funk

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

344

Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the U.S. National Weather Service  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast verification in operational hydrology has been very limited to date, mainly due to the complexity of verifying both forcing input forecasts and hydrologic forecasts on multiple space–time scales. However, forecast verification needs to ...

Julie Demargne; Mary Mullusky; Kevin Werner; Thomas Adams; Scott Lindsey; Noreen Schwein; William Marosi; Edwin Welles

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis  

SciTech Connect

This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.

Cazalet, E.G.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

that are fit for their purpose; for example, returningaggregate county and sector forecasts that are consistent by construction....

Satchell, Stephen E; Wright, Stephen M

2006-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

347

Improved Middle Atmosphere Climate and Forecasts in the ECMWF Model through a Nonorographic Gravity Wave Drag Parameterization  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In model cycle 35r3 (Cy35r3) of the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS), the momentum deposition from small-scale nonorographic gravity waves is parameterized by the Scinocca scheme, which uses hydrostatic nonrotational wave dynamics to ...

Andrew Orr; Peter Bechtold; John Scinocca; Manfred Ern; Marta Janiskova

2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

349

Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...

2013-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

350

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

351

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

352

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

353

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

354

Load forecast and treatment of conservation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservation in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast

355

FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs

356

STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 report, Staff Forecast: Retail Electricity Prices, 2005 to 2018, was prepared with contributions from the technical assistance provided by Greg Broeking of R.W. Beck, Inc. in preparing retail price forecasts

357

Blue Chip Consensus US GDP Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and metro area from Moody’s Economy.com Equivalent to US-level Gross Domestic Product ? The GMP forecasts have a large impact on the peak load forecasts Rule of thumb: 1 % growth in RTO GMP ? approx. 1,000 MW growth in forecast RTO peak load

James F. Wilson

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

358

5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

359

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used

360

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

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they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity 29, 2012 Preliminary Results of the Electricity Price Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity market price forecast. A summary of the work

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

362

Federal Energy and Water Management Award Winners William Kuster, John McDuffie, Dennis Svalstad, William Turnbull and Steven White  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

McDuffie, McDuffie, Dennis Svalstad William Turnbull, Steven White U.S. Air Force Air Combat Command Langley Air Force Base, Virginia The U.S. Air Force Air Combat Command (ACC) facility energy team expertly managed a comprehensive program focused on project execution, facility optimization, and energy accounting for 16 installations. Their efforts led to an energy intensity reduction of 5.9 percent in FY 2012 as compared to the prior year, and saved $6.67 million in utility costs. The team spearheaded the award of 39 energy projects that will save an estimated $5.4 million annually. In addition, the team led projects to retro-commission 2.3 million square feet at 78 major facilities, repair energy management control systems, and provide training at 12 bases to save an additional 76.6 billion Btu.

363

Forecasting project progress and early warning of project overruns with probabilistic methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a critical component of project management. Project managers must be able to make reliable predictions about the final duration and cost of projects starting from project inception. Such predictions need to be revised and compared with the project’s objectives to obtain early warnings against potential problems. Therefore, the effectiveness of project controls relies on the capability of project managers to make reliable forecasts in a timely manner. This dissertation focuses on forecasting project schedule progress with probabilistic methods. Currently available methods, for example, the critical path method (CPM) and earned value management (EVM) are deterministic and fail to account for the inherent uncertainty in forecasting and project performance. The objective of this dissertation is to improve the predictive capabilities of project managers by developing probabilistic forecasting methods that integrate all relevant information and uncertainties into consistent forecasts in a mathematically sound procedure usable in practice. In this dissertation, two probabilistic methods, the Kalman filter forecasting method (KFFM) and the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method (BAFM), were developed. The KFFM and the BAFM have the following advantages over the conventional methods: (1) They are probabilistic methods that provide prediction bounds on predictions; (2) They are integrative methods that make better use of the prior performance information available from standard construction management practices and theories; and (3) They provide a systematic way of incorporating measurement errors into forecasting. The accuracy and early warning capacity of the KFFM and the BAFM were also evaluated and compared against the CPM and a state-of-the-art EVM schedule forecasting method. Major conclusions from this research are: (1) The state-of-the-art EVM schedule forecasting method can be used to obtain reliable warnings only after the project performance has stabilized; (2) The CPM is not capable of providing early warnings due to its retrospective nature; (3) The KFFM and the BAFM can and should be used to forecast progress and to obtain reliable early warnings of all projects; and (4) The early warning capacity of forecasting methods should be evaluated and compared in terms of the timeliness and reliability of warning in the context of formal early warning systems.

Kim, Byung Cheol

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

Forecasting project progress and early warning of project overruns with probabilistic methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a critical component of project management. Project managers must be able to make reliable predictions about the final duration and cost of projects starting from project inception. Such predictions need to be revised and compared with the project's objectives to obtain early warnings against potential problems. Therefore, the effectiveness of project controls relies on the capability of project managers to make reliable forecasts in a timely manner. This dissertation focuses on forecasting project schedule progress with probabilistic methods. Currently available methods, for example, the critical path method (CPM) and earned value management (EVM) are deterministic and fail to account for the inherent uncertainty in forecasting and project performance. The objective of this dissertation is to improve the predictive capabilities of project managers by developing probabilistic forecasting methods that integrate all relevant information and uncertainties into consistent forecasts in a mathematically sound procedure usable in practice. In this dissertation, two probabilistic methods, the Kalman filter forecasting method (KFFM) and the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method (BAFM), were developed. The KFFM and the BAFM have the following advantages over the conventional methods: (1) They are probabilistic methods that provide prediction bounds on predictions; (2) They are integrative methods that make better use of the prior performance information available from standard construction management practices and theories; and (3) They provide a systematic way of incorporating measurement errors into forecasting. The accuracy and early warning capacity of the KFFM and the BAFM were also evaluated and compared against the CPM and a state-of-the-art EVM schedule forecasting method. Major conclusions from this research are: (1) The state-of-the-art EVM schedule forecasting method can be used to obtain reliable warnings only after the project performance has stabilized; (2) The CPM is not capable of providing early warnings due to its retrospective nature; (3) The KFFM and the BAFM can and should be used to forecast progress and to obtain reliable early warnings of all projects; and (4) The early warning capacity of forecasting methods should be evaluated and compared in terms of the timeliness and reliability of warning in the context of formal early warning systems.

Kim, Byung Cheol

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

365

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

366

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach can forecast the price of a notebook computer up to four months in advance of its introduction with an average error of under 10% and the rate of price erosion to within 10% of the price for seven months after introduction-the length of the typical life cycle of a notebook. Since all data are publicly available, this approach can be used to assist managerial decision making in the notebook computer industry, for example, in determining when and how to upgrade a model and when to introduce a new model.

Rutherford, Derek Paul

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.

2001-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

368

Freeway Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting by Considering Traffic Volatility Dynamics and Missing Data Situations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a critical function in advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) and advanced traveler information systems (ATIS). Accurate forecasting results are useful to indicate future traffic conditions and assist traffic managers in seeking solutions to congestion problems on urban freeways and surface streets. There is new research interest in short-term traffic flow forecasting due to recent developments in ITS technologies. Previous research involves technologies in multiple areas, and a significant number of forecasting methods exist in literature. However, forecasting reliability is not properly addressed in existing studies. Most forecasting methods only focus on the expected value of traffic flow, assuming constant variance when perform forecasting. This method does not consider the volatility nature of traffic flow data. This paper demonstrated that the variance part of traffic flow data is not constant, and dependency exists. A volatility model studies the dependency among the variance part of traffic flow data and provides a prediction range to indicate the reliability of traffic flow forecasting. We proposed an ARIMA-GARCH (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average- AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) model to study the volatile nature of traffic flow data. Another problem of existing studies is that most methods have limited forecasting abilities when there is missing data in historical or current traffic flow data. We developed a General Regression Neural Network(GRNN) based multivariate forecasting method to deal with this issue. This method uses upstream information to predict traffic flow at the studied site. The study results indicate that the ARIMA-GARCH model outperforms other methods in non-missing data situations, while the GRNN model performs better in missing data situations.

Zhang, Yanru

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Publications  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Publications Publications Want updates about future transmission grid integration webinars and publications? Join our mailing list. NREL has an extensive collection of publications related to transmission integration research. Explore the resources below to learn more. Selected Project Publications Read selected publications related to these transmission integration projects: Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study Oahu Wind Integration and Transmission Study Flexible Energy Scheduling Tool for Integration of Variable generation (FESTIV) Active power controls Forecasting Grid Simulation. NREL Publications Database NREL's publications database offers a variety of documents related to transmission integration that were written by NREL staff and

370

The Association Forecasting of 13 Variants Within Seven Asthma Susceptibility Genes on 3 Serum IgE Groups in Taiwanese Population by Integrating of Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Classification Analysis Methods  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases in children. It is caused by complicated coactions between various genetic factors and environmental allergens. The study aims to integrate the concept of implementing adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system ... Keywords: Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), Classify analysis, Fuzzy logic, Pediatric asthma, SNPs

Cheng-Hang Wang; Baw-Jhiune Liu; Lawrence Shih-Hsin Wu

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

2011-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

372

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II uses the method of structural factor analysis to study the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in a data rich environment. I propose two structural factor models. One is the structural factor augmented vector autoregressive (SFAVAR) model and the other is the structural factor vector autoregressive (SFVAR) model. Compared to the traditional vector autogression (VAR) model, both models incorporate far more information from hundreds of data series, series that can be and are monitored by the Central Bank. Moreover, the factors used are structurally meaningful, a feature that adds to the understanding of the �black box� of the monetary transmission mechanism. Both models generate qualitatively reasonable impulse response functions. Using the SFVAR model, both the �price puzzle� and the �liquidity puzzle� are eliminated. Chapter III employs the method of structural factor analysis to conduct a forecasting exercise in a data rich environment. I simulate out-of-sample real time forecasting using a structural dynamic factor forecasting model and its variations. I use several structural factors to summarize the information from a large set of candidate explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)�s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor forecasting models compared to alternatives that include univariate autoregression (AR) model, the VAR model and Stock and Watson�s (2002) models, especially when forecasting real variables. In chapter IV, we measure U.S. technology shocks by implementing a dual approach, which is based on more reliable price data instead of aggregate quantity data. By doing so, we find the relative volatility of technology shocks and the correlation between output fluctuation and technology shocks to be much smaller than those revealed in most real-business-cycle (RBC) studies. Our results support the findings of Burnside, Eichenbaum and Rebelo (1996), who showed that the correlation between technology shocks and output is exaggerated in the RBC literature. This suggests that one should examine other sources of fluctuations for a better understanding of the business cycle phenomena.

Liu, Dandan

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

Calibration of Johnson–Williams and PMS ASSP Probes in a Wind Tunnel  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Wet wind tunnel tests have provided calibrations and intercomparisons of the LAMP's cloud liquid water content probes (three Johnson–Williams sensor heads and one PMS ASSP). The tunnel liquid water content was deduced with a rotating cyclinder ...

J. F. Gayet

1986-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

375

An Indigenous Thing: The Story of William Wurster and the Gregory Farmhouse  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

200. 4. Kenneth Reid, "The Architect and the Flouse: W i l lthere. In the words of its architect, William Wurster, or "American Institute of Architects in 1929 and the $500 first

Gregory, Daniel P

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

376

NEW MIGRATIONS TO ISRAEL AND THE EMERGENCE OF A COSMOPOLITAN TEL AVIV DR. WILLIAM BERTHOMIERE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NEW MIGRATIONS TO ISRAEL AND THE EMERGENCE OF A COSMOPOLITAN TEL AVIV BY DR. WILLIAM BERTHOMIERE AT THE CONFERENCE COSMOPOLITANISM & ANTHROPOLOGY ASA 2006 DIAMOND JUBILEE CONFERENCE - KEELE UNIVERSITY 10-13 APRIL

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

377

Northwest McGregor Oil Field in Williams County, North Dakota...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

collaborated with Eagle Operating, Inc. to complete the test in the Northwest McGregor Oil Field in Williams County, North Dakota. The "huff-and-puff" EOR method consists of three...

378

William H. Miller, 1985 | U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)  

Office of Science (SC) Website

William H. Miller, 1985 The Ernest Orlando Lawrence Award Lawrence Award Home Nomination & Selection Guidelines Award Laureates 2000's 1990's 1980's 1970's 1960's Ceremony The Life...

379

William Robert Ware and the beginnings of architectural education in the United States, 1861-1881  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

William Robert Ware (1832- 1915) planned and directed the first collegiate program in architectural education i n the United States. He was educated in the liberal arts and civil engineering at Harvard University and ...

Chewning, John Andrew

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

FIA-12-0049- In the Matter of William B. Ray  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

On October 1, 2012, OHA denied an Appeal filed by William B. Ray under the Freedom of Information and Privacy Act.  Mr. Ray was appealing from a determination issued by the DOE’s Oak Ridge Office ...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Calibrations of Johnson-Williams Liquid Water Content Meters in a High-Speed Icing Tunnel  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Wind tunnel tests have provided calibrations and intercomparisons of 14 Johnson-Williams (J–W) cloud liquid water content (LWC) measuring devices with 23 sensor heads from 10 research organizations. The absolute tunnel LWC was deduced using a ...

J. Walter Strapp; Robert S. Schemenauer

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

The moment of William Ralph Emerson's Art Club in Boston's art culture  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis will analyze the architect William Ralph Emerson's (1833-1917) Boston Art Club building (1881-82) and its station within Boston and New York's art culture. Even though there has been considerable research on ...

Hoeffler, Michelle Leah

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

Integrated Energy Policy Report Subsidiary Volume: PUBLIC INTEREST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Integrated Energy Policy Report Subsidiary Volume: PUBLIC INTEREST Energy Policy Report Cheri Davis Gerald Pine Jennifer Williams Mike Messenger Pamela Doughman Sylvia Interest Energy Strategies Report was completed under the auspices of the Ad Hoc Integrated Energy Policy

384

Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Space-Time Wind Speed Forecasting for Improved Power System Dispatch  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In order to support large scale integration of wind power, state-of-the-art wind speed forecasting methods should provide accurate and adequate information to enable efficient scheduling of wind power in electric energy systems. In this article, space-time wind forecasts are incorporated into power system economic dispatch models. First, we proposed a new space-time wind forecasting model, which generalizes and improves upon a so-called regime-switching space-time model by allowing the forecast regimes to vary with the dominant wind direction and with the seasons. Then, results from the new wind forecasting model are implemented into a power system economic dispatch model, which takes into account both spatial and temporal wind speed correlations. This, in turn, leads to an overall more cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation portfolio. The potential economic benefits arise in the system-wide generation cost savings and in the ancillary service cost savings. This is illustrated in a test system in the northwest region of the U.S. Compared with persistent and autoregressive models, our proposed method could lead to annual integration cost savings on the scale of tens of millions of dollars in regions with high wind penetration, such as Texas and the Northwest. Key words: Power system economic dispatch; Power system operation; Space-time statistical model; Wind data; Wind speed forecasting.

Xinxin Zhu; Marc G. Genton; Yingzhong Gu; Le Xie

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

William Flynn William Ratcliff  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... Hard drives, credit cards, VHS ? Transformers, generators ? Electric Motors ... Comprehensive testing ? Widespread distribution 19 Page 20. 20 ...

2010-09-03T23:59:59.000Z

387

Forecasting Techniques The Use of Hourly Model-Generated Soundings to Forecast Mesoscale Phenomena. Part I: Initial Assessment in Forecasting Warm-Season Phenomena  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since late 1995, NCEP has made available to forecasters hourly model guidance at selected sites in the form of vertical profiles of various forecast fields. These profiles provide forecasters with increased temporal resolution and greater ...

Robert E. Hart; Gregory S. Forbes; Richard H. Grumm

1998-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document represents the progress report and Task 1 letter report of the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) contract funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC), Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF) for California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Planning Phase. Task 1 was to accomplish the following items: Collect data from CAISO to set up the WECC power flow base case representing the CAISO system in the summer of 2006 Run TRACE for maximizing California Impo...

2006-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

389

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

390

Meese-Rogoff redux: Micro-based exchange-rate forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Johnatban. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We'veBased Exchange-Rate Forecasting By MARTIN D . D . EVANS ANDon longer-horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over

Evans, MDD; Lyons, Richard K.

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasters,” Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 28, No. 2, Mar,of Macroeconomic Forecasting” Journal of Macroeconomics,of Federal Reserve Forecasting,” Journal of Macroeconomics,

Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and V. Letschert (2005). Forecasting Electricity Demand in8364 Material World: Forecasting Household ApplianceMcNeil, 2008). Forecasting Diffusion Forecasting Variables

Letschert, Virginie

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

Camp William Utah National Guard Wind Farm II | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

William Utah National Guard Wind Farm II William Utah National Guard Wind Farm II Jump to: navigation, search Name Camp William Utah National Guard Wind Farm II Facility Camp William Utah National Guard Sector Wind energy Facility Type Community Wind Facility Status In Service Owner Camp William Utah National Guard Energy Purchaser Camp William Utah National Guard Location Riverton UT Coordinates 40.439852°, -111.919141° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":40.439852,"lon":-111.919141,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

394

Model documentation: electricity market module. [15 year forecasts  

SciTech Connect

This report documents the electricity market model. This model is a component of the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), the energy market model used to provide projections of energy markets up to 15 years into the future. The electricity market model was developed by the Supply Analysis and Integration Branch as part of building the larger system. This report is written for an audience consisting of mathematical economists, statisticians, operations research analysts, and utility planners. This report contains an overview and a mathematical specification of the electricity market module. It includes a description of the model logic and the individual subroutines in the computer code. A companion document Intermediate Future Forecasting System: Executive Summary (DOE/EIA-430) provides an overview of the components in IFFS and their linkages. 22 figures, 2 tables.

Sanders, R.C.; Murphy, F.H.

1984-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

The Commission Forecast 1992 Report: Important Resource Planning Issues  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

There is a general agreement among experts in the electric utility industry that some power plants will be built in Texas in the 1990s. However, the existence of numerous alternatives to meet the growing demand may have a powerful impact on this new phase of construction. Therefore, the magnitude of the new power plant construction will probably not be as great as what we thought a few years ago. The author emphasizes the importance of using an integrated resource planning approach, in which alternative resources could be analyzed and compared adequately. While there are many important issues in the preparation of a utility's electric resource plan, the Commission staff will address a few important ones in the next Commission Forecast Report (Forecast '92). In particular, the Commission staff will insure that alternative resources, the environmental impacts of different technologies, and innovative rate design options are considered.

Adib, P.

1992-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2000 NEW JERSEY of growth will decelerate over the forecast period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey in 2000 looks to decelerate over the course of the forecast. These forces will combine to push the unemployment rate to more

397

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling A NOAA of the NWS's forecast products, even its regional forecast products, are constrained by the limitations of NOAA's global forecast model. Unfortunately, our global forecasts are less accurate than those from

Hamill, Tom

398

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using one- to seven-day ensemble forecasts of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

399

Using National Air Quality Forecast Guidance to Develop Local Air Quality Index Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) currently provides next-day forecasts of ozone concentrations over the contiguous United States. It was developed collaboratively by NOAA and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in order to ...

Brian Eder; Daiwen Kang; S. Trivikrama Rao; Rohit Mathur; Shaocai Yu; Tanya Otte; Ken Schere; Richard Wayland; Scott Jackson; Paula Davidson; Jeff McQueen; George Bridgers

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest evaluated the skill of ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Daniel S. Wilks

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
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401

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

402

Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Evaluating the propagation of errors associated with ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) into the ensemble streamflow response is important to reduce uncertainty in operational flow forecasting. In this paper, a multifractal ...

Giuseppe Mascaro; Enrique R. Vivoni; Roberto Deidda

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

403

Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

404

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system obtained ...

David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

405

The Impact of Writing Area Forecast Discussions on Student Forecaster Performance  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A brief study is provided on the forecast performance of students who write a mock area forecast discussion (AFD) on a weekly basis. Student performance was tracked for one semester (11 weeks) during the University of Missouri—Columbia's local ...

Patrick S. Market

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...

Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for water resources planning and management as well as for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. In this study, operational streamflow forecasts are ...

A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Susan Espinueva

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work examines the performance of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEP’s coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in near–real time. ...

Kyong-Hwan Seo; Wanqiu Wang; Jon Gottschalck; Qin Zhang; Jae-Kyung E. Schemm; Wayne R. Higgins; Arun Kumar

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

Further Evaluation of the National Meterological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model Precpitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated ...

John O. Roads; T. Norman Maisal; Jordan Alpert

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

2012 CERTS R&M Peer Review - Renewable Integration Through Risk...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

intra-day energy markets Incorporating better probabilistic forecasts of renewables R. Rajagopal et al., RLD for Integrating Renewable Power, IJEPES 2012 R. Rajagopal et al.,...

412

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability? M. Hashem Pesaran University of Cambridge, CIMF, and USC Andreas Pick University of Cambridge, CIMF March 11, 2008 Abstract This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used... but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single...

Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

413

Solar future: 1978. [Market forecast to 1992  

SciTech Connect

The growth in sales of solar heating equipment is discussed. Some forecasts are made for the continued market growth of collectors, pool systems, and photovoltaics. (MOW)

Butt, S.H.

1978-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

Energy conservation and official UK energy forecasts  

SciTech Connect

Behind the latest United Kingdom (UK) official forecasts of energy demand are implicit assumptions about future energy-price elasticities. Mr. Pearce examines the basis of the forecasts and finds that the long-term energy-price elasticities that they imply are two or three times too low. The official forecasts substantially understate the responsiveness of demand to energy price rises. If more-realistic price elasticities were assumed, the official forecasts would imply a zero primary energy-demand growth to 2000. This raises the interesting possibility of a low energy future being brought about entirely by market forces. 15 references, 3 tables.

Pearce, D.

1980-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

417

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past Santa Fe Institute Proceedings on the Studies in the Sciences of ...

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

Rolling 12 Month Forecast November-2008.xls  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Month Exceedence Level: 90% (Dry) First Preference CVP Generation Project Use November 2008 October 2009 November 2008 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource...

419

Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

Koottatep, Pakawkul

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract--In deregulated electricity markets, short-term load forecasting is important for reliable power322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting presents a similar day-based wavelet neural network method to forecast tomorrow's load. The idea

Tesfatsion, Leigh

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
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to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets MISO NYISO PJM ERCOT CAISO Peak load 109,157 MW (7 ........................................................................................... 18 4 WIND POWER FORECASTING AND ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATIONS............................................................ 18 4-1 Market Operation and Wind Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets .......... 21 #12

Kemner, Ken

422

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

423

Forecasting during the Lake-ICE/SNOWBANDS Field Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite improvements in numerical weather prediction models, statistical models, forecast decision trees, and forecasting rules of thumb, human interpretation of meteorological information for a particular forecast situation can still yield a ...

Peter J. Sousounis; Greg E. Mann; George S. Young; Richard B. Wagenmaker; Bradley D. Hoggatt; William J. Badini

1999-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

424

Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-...

Stanley A. Changnon; Joyce M. Changnon; David Changnon

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

425

Forecasting and Verifying in a Field Research Project: DOPLIGHT '87  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Verification of forecasts during research field experiments is discussed and exemplified using the DOPLIGHT '87 experiment. We stress the importance of forecast verification if forecasting is to be a serious component of the research. A direct ...

Charles A. Doswell III; John A. Flueck

1989-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

A Probabilistic Forecast Approach for Daily Precipitation Totals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Commonly, postprocessing techniques are employed to calibrate a model forecast. Here, a probabilistic postprocessor is presented that provides calibrated probability and quantile forecasts of precipitation on the local scale. The forecasts are ...

Petra Friederichs; Andreas Hense

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The role of the human forecaster in improving upon the accuracy of numerical weather prediction is explored using multi-year verification of human-generated short-range precipitation forecasts and medium-range maximum temperature forecasts from ...

David R. Novak; Christopher Bailey; Keith Brill; Patrick Burke; Wallace Hogsett; Robert Rausch; Michael Schichtel

428

Prediction of Consensus Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The extent to which the tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast error of a consensus model (CONU) routinely used by the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center can be predicted is determined. A number of predictors of consensus forecast error, ...

James S. Goerss

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

429

An Experiment in Mesoscale Weather Forecasting in the Michigan Area  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During an experiment in mesoscale weather forecasting in the Michigan area, consensus improved over NWS guidance in maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation forecasts out to 24 hours. Forecasts were generally best in the ...

Dennis G. Baker

1986-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration that is applied to ...

Yuejian Zhu; Zoltan Toth; Richard Wobus; David Richardson; Kenneth Mylne

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...

Ramón de Elía; René Laprise

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

432

An Alternative Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Verification Technique  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts are included in a ...

Sim D. Aberson

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

433

On the Reliability and Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An important aspect of ensemble forecasting is that the resulting probabilities are reliable (i.e., the forecast probabilities match the observed frequencies). In the medium-range forecasting context, the literature tends to focus on the ...

Christine Johnson; Neill Bowler

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a long-standing aim in meteorological forecasting. This paper explains the ...

Jochen Bröcker; Leonard A. Smith

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Experiments in Temperature and Precipitation Forecasting for Illinois  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Six years of daily temperature and precipitation forecasting are studied for Urbana, Illinois. Minimum temperature forecast skills, measured against a climatological control, are 57%, 48%, 34% and 20% for the respective forecast ranges of one, ...

John R. Gyakum

1986-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

436

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the entire forecast period, primarily because both weather-adjusted peak and electricity consumption were forecast. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather normalization, annual peak demand, natural gas demand, self-generation, conservation, California Solar Initiative. #12

437

Behavioral constraints on harlequin duck population recovery from the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??I investigated the relationship between harlequin duck (Histrionicus histrionicus) behavior and lack of recovery from the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska.… (more)

[No author

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

438

Why aren't pigeon guillemots in Prince William Sound, Alaska recovering from the Exxon Valdez oil spill?.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The Pigeon Guillemot (Cepphus columba) is now the only species of marine bird in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska that is listed as "not recovering"… (more)

[No author

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Harlequin duck demography during winter in Prince William Sound, Alaska : effects of the Exxon Valdez oil spill.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill was a major perturbation of nearshore habitats of Prince William Sound, a wintering area for harlequin ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus).… (more)

[No author

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

Price and Load Forecasting in Volatile Energy Markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

With daily news stories about wildly fluctuating electricity prices and soaring natural gas prices, forecasters' responsibilities are expanding, visibility is increasing, and pressure exists to produce more frequent forecasts and more kinds of forecasts. The proceedings of EPRI's 13th Forecasting Symposium, held November 13-15 in Nashville, Tennessee, address current forecasting issues and developments, as well as explain the role that forecasters have played in recent events in energy markets.

2001-12-05T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

forecasts  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 106. Average annual minemouth coal prices by region, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per million Btu) Appalachia Interior West US Average

442

Possibility of Skill Forecast Based on the Finite-Time Dominant Linear Solutions for a Primitive Equation Regional Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The possibility of using forecast errors originating from the finite-time dominant linear modes for the prediction of forecast skill for a primitive equation regional forecast model is studied. This is similar to the method for skill prediction ...

Tomislava Vuki?evi?

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

Blasting Vibration Forecast Base on Neural Network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The influence of blasting vibration to surroundings around the blasting area can not be ignored, in order to guarantee the safety of surroundings around blasting area, blasting vibration forecasting model based on neural network is established by improved ... Keywords: Blasting vibration, Neural network, Forecast

Haiwang Ye; Fang Liu; Jian Chang; Lin Feng; Yang Wang; Peng Yao; Kai Wu

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

444

Evaluating the Skill of Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A generalized skill score is presented for evaluating forecasts in any number of categories. Each forecast in a sample is given a mark; the skill score for the sample is just the average mark. Each mark has an expected value of zero for an ...

Neil D. Gordon

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

Forecasting demand of commodities after natural disasters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Demand forecasting after natural disasters is especially important in emergency management. However, since the time series of commodities demand after natural disasters usually has a great deal of nonlinearity and irregularity, it has poor prediction ... Keywords: ARIMA, Demand forecasting, EMD, Emergency management, Natural disaster

Xiaoyan Xu; Yuqing Qi; Zhongsheng Hua

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

446

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled Reanalysis ...

Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; David Behringer; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-ya Chuang; Mark Iredell; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Malaquías Peńa Mendez; Huug van den Dool; Qin Zhang; Wanqiu Wang; Mingyue Chen; Emily Becker

447

Efficient forecasting for hierarchical time series  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting is used as the basis for business planning in many application areas such as energy, sales and traffic management. Time series data used in these areas is often hierarchically organized and thus, aggregated along the hierarchy levels based ... Keywords: forecasting, hierarchies, optimization, time series

Lars Dannecker; Robert Lorenz; Philipp Rösch; Wolfgang Lehner; Gregor Hackenbroich

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

Time series forecasting with Qubit Neural Networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a quantum learning scheme approach for time series forecasting, through the application of the new non-standard Qubit Neural Network (QNN) model. The QNN description was adapted in this work in order to resemble classical Artificial ... Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, quantum computing, qubit neural networks, time series forecasting

Carlos R. B. Azevedo; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

Forecast of geothermal-drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are forecasted. Results of the forecast are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.

Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

450

Preemptive Forecasts Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) estimates the error statistics of a model forecast using an ensemble of model forecasts. One use of an EnKF is data assimilation, resulting in the creation of an increment to the first-guess field at the ...

Brian J. Etherton

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a distributed model that is in operational use for forecasting flash floods in northern Austria. The main challenge in developing the model was parameter identification which was addressed by a modelling strategy that involved a model ... Keywords: Distributed modelling, Dominant processes concept, Floods, Forecasting, Kalman Filter, Model accuracy, Parameter identification, Stream routing

Günter Blöschl; Christian Reszler; Jürgen Komma

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Incentives for Retailer Forecasting: Rebates vs. Returns  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper studies a manufacturer that sells to a newsvendor retailer who can improve the quality of her demand information by exerting costly forecasting effort. In such a setting, contracts play two roles: providing incentives to influence the retailer's ... Keywords: endogenous adverse selection, forecasting, rebates, returns, supply chain contracting

Terry A. Taylor; Wenqiang Xiao

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy to someone by E-mail Share SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy...

454

New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering...

455

Exploiting Domain Knowledge to Forecast Heating Oil Consumption  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The GasDay laboratory at Marquette University provides forecasts of energy consumption. One such service is the Heating Oil Forecaster

George F. Corliss; Tsuginosuke Sakauchi; Steven R. Vitullo; Ronald H. Brown

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Alphabetically Tools by Platform PC Mac UNIX Internet Tools by Country Related Links Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides...

457

Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...

Ye, Quanzhi

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

The ANEMOS Project: Next Generation Forecasting of Wind Power. G.Kariniotakis*  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

integration of wind energy in the developing liberalized electricity markets. Keywords - Wind power, short-resolution meteorological forecasts. For the offshore case, marine meteorology is considered as well as information will allow validation of the models and an analysis of the value of wind prediction for a competitive

Heinemann, Detlev

459

Modelling and forecasting tourism from East Asia to Thailand under temporal and spatial aggregation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Tourism is one of the key service industries in Thailand, with a 5.27% share of Gross Domestic Product in 2003. Since 2000, international tourist arrivals, particularly those from East Asia, to Thailand have been on a continuous upward trend. Tourism ... Keywords: Autoregressive integrated moving average, Forecast, Spatial aggregation, Tourism

Chia-Lin Chang; Songsak Sriboonchitta; Aree Wiboonpongse

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

460

Support vector regression with chaos-based firefly algorithm for stock market price forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Due to the inherent non-linearity and non-stationary characteristics of financial stock market price time series, conventional modeling techniques such as the Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) are not adequate for stock market ... Keywords: Chaotic mapping, Firefly algorithm, Stock market price forecasting, Support vector regression

Ahmad Kazem; Ebrahim Sharifi; Farookh Khadeer Hussain; Morteza Saberi; Omar Khadeer Hussain

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

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they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
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to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

WRF-Fire: Coupled Weather–Wildland Fire Modeling with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A wildland fire-behavior module, named WRF-Fire, was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire-behavior model that is two-way coupled with the ...

Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

Examination of Analysis and Forecast Errors of High-Resolution Assimilation, Bias Removal, and Digital Filter Initialization with an Ensemble Kalman Filter  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Mesoscale atmospheric data assimilation is becoming an integral part of numerical weather prediction. Modern computational resources now allow assimilation and subsequent forecasting experiments ranging from resolutions of tens of kilometers over ...

Brian C. Ancell

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Short-Range Direct and Diffuse Irradiance Forecasts for Solar Energy Applications Based on Aerosol Chemical Transport and Numerical Weather Modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study examines 2–3-day solar irradiance forecasts with respect to their application in solar energy industries, such as yield prediction for the integration of the strongly fluctuating solar energy into the electricity grid. During cloud-...

Hanne Breitkreuz; Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt; Thomas Holzer-Popp; Stefan Dech

2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

464

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

DOE - Office of Legacy Management -- Baker and Williams Co - NJ 13  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Baker and Williams Co - NJ 13 Baker and Williams Co - NJ 13 FUSRAP Considered Sites Site: Baker and Williams Co (NJ 13) Eliminated from consideration under FUSRAP Designated Name: Not Designated Alternate Name: Baker and Company, Inc. Engelhard Industries, Baker Platinum Division NJ.13-8 NJ.13-1 Location: 113 Astor Street , Newark , New Jersey NJ.13-1 NJ.13-8 Evaluation Year: 1990 NJ.13-2 NJ.13-7 Site Operations: From 1943 through the mid-1950s, the facility processed spent catalyst (contaminated platinum) to recovery the platinum for the AEC. From the Mid-1950s to the early-1960s the facility conducted research and development on metal fabrication processes including rolling, drawing uranium metal metals continued recovery operations (uranium from scrap under AEC source material license). NJ.13-3

466

Edward William Larsen, 1994 | U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)  

Office of Science (SC) Website

Edward William Larsen, 1994 Edward William Larsen, 1994 The Ernest Orlando Lawrence Award Lawrence Award Home Nomination & Selection Guidelines Award Laureates 2000's 1990's 1980's 1970's 1960's Ceremony The Life of Ernest Orlando Lawrence Contact Information The Ernest Orlando Lawrence Award U.S. Department of Energy SC-2/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 P: (301) 903-9395 E: lawrence.award@science.doe.gov 1990's Edward William Larsen, 1994 Print Text Size: A A A RSS Feeds FeedbackShare Page Nuclear Technology: For his profound impact on the analytic and numerical methods used to model the transport of particles and radiation in complex systems, with applications in diverse areas of nuclear technology ranging from nuclear weapons design to nuclear reactor safety

467

EA-1958: Future Development in proximity to the William R. Wiley  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

958: Future Development in proximity to the William R. Wiley 958: Future Development in proximity to the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington EA-1958: Future Development in proximity to the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington SUMMARY This Environmental Assessment (EA) evaluates U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) activities associated with proposed future development on the South Federal Campus of the DOE Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Site, in Benton County, Washington. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is a multi-program U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Science (DOE-SC) national laboratory conducting research to meet DOE

468

OSTIblog Posts by Dr. William Watson | OSTI, US Dept of Energy, Office of  

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

William Watson William Watson Dr. William Watson's picture Physicist Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity - ChemCam NASA/JPL-Caltech Published on Sep 12, 2012 How do you run chemical tests at a geologic site millions of miles away from you to see what the rocks and soil are made of? Curiosity's new instrument ChemCam, developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory, is designed to determine how much light is emitted at each frequency by a geologic sample when it's heated by a laser beam. Since different materials have different light-emission patterns, measuring the patterns shows what materials emitted them. Slide presentations giving a general view of Los Alamos contributions to ChemCam: "Mechanical & System Engineering Challenges Associated with the Development of the ChemCam Instrument for the NASA Mars Science Laboratory"

469

William L. Russell, 1976 | U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)  

Office of Science (SC) Website

William L. Russell, 1976 William L. Russell, 1976 The Enrico Fermi Award Fermi Award Home Nomination & Selection Guidelines Award Laureates 2010's 2000's 1990's 1980's 1970's 1960's 1950's Ceremony The Life of Enrico Fermi Contact Information The Enrico Fermi Award U.S. Department of Energy SC-2/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 P: (301) 903-9395 E: fermi.award@science.doe.gov 1970's William L. Russell, 1976 Print Text Size: A A A RSS Feeds FeedbackShare Page Citation For his outstanding contributions during a long and distinguished career to the quantitative evaluation of the genetic effects of radiation in mammals which serve as a major scientific base for national and international standards for radiation protection of human populations; for his major contributions to the principles of genetic theory; and most recently, for

470

Static Temperature Survey At San Andreas Region (Williams, Et Al., 2004) |  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

San Andreas Region (Williams, Et Al., 2004) San Andreas Region (Williams, Et Al., 2004) Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Exploration Activity: Static Temperature Survey At San Andreas Region (Williams, Et Al., 2004) Exploration Activity Details Location San Andreas Geothermal Region Exploration Technique Static Temperature Survey Activity Date Usefulness useful regional reconnaissance DOE-funding Unknown Notes As part of an ongoing effort to investigate the thermal regime of California basins, the USGS has measured heat flow in idle oil and gas wells throughout the state. (Details and references on the published data presented in this paper can be found in the USGS heat flow database for California online at http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/heatflow/. Major references are Sass et al., 1971, Lachenbruch and Sass, 1980, DeRito et al., 1988, and

471

FIA-12-0051 - In the Matter of William Berger | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

1 - In the Matter of William Berger 1 - In the Matter of William Berger FIA-12-0051 - In the Matter of William Berger On October 9, 2012, the Office of Hearings and Appeals (OHA) issued a decision denying an appeal from a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) determination issued by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The Appellant filed an Appeal seeking information about an internal investigation conducted at Fort Chaffee, AR. In its Determination Letter, NNSA informed the Appellant that it neither confirmed nor denied the existence of any such records described in the request (Glomar response). Citing FOIA Exemption 6, the Authorizing Official stated in the Determination Letter that an official acknowledgement of an investigation or an acknowledgment of the existence

472

A Short-Range Forecasting Experiment Conducted during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP), a dedicated forecast center conducted experiments in mesoscale forecasting. Several forecast products, including a marine forecast and a site-specific public forecast, were written every 3 h. ...

K. A. Macdonald; M. Danks; J. D. Abraham

1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

2010-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

474

Decision support for financial forecasting  

SciTech Connect

A primary mission of the Budget Management Division of the Air Force is fiscal analysis. This involves formulating, justifying, and tracking financial data during budget preparation and execution. An essential requirement of this process is the ready availability and easy manipulation of past and current budget data. This necessitates the decentralization of the data. A prototypical system, BAFS (Budget Analysis and Forecasting System), that provides such a capability is presented. In its current state, the system is designed to be a decision support tool. A brief report of the budget decisions and activities is presented. The system structure and its major components are discussed. An insight into the implementation strategies and the tool used is provided. The paper concludes with a discussion of future enhancements and the system's evolution into an expert system. 4 refs., 3 figs.

Jairam, B.N.; Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hardee, H.K.

1988-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

475

Construction Safety Forecast for ITER  

SciTech Connect

The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project is poised to begin its construction activity. This paper gives an estimate of construction safety as if the experiment was being built in the United States. This estimate of construction injuries and potential fatalities serves as a useful forecast of what can be expected for construction of such a major facility in any country. These data should be considered by the ITER International Team as it plans for safety during the construction phase. Based on average U.S. construction rates, ITER may expect a lost workday case rate of < 4.0 and a fatality count of 0.5 to 0.9 persons per year.

cadwallader, lee charles

2006-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

MSSM Forecast for the LHC  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on $e^+e^-$ data) is considered, the preferred region (for $\\mu>0$) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-$\\mu$ possibilities.

Maria Eugenia Cabrera; Alberto Casas; Roberto Ruiz de Austri

2009-11-24T23:59:59.000Z

477

California Energy Commission Public Interest Energy Research/Energy System Integration -- Transmission-Planning Research & Development Scoping Project  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Case Selection • Natural Gas Prices • Demand • Hydrology •Natural gas price forecast - Near-term new generation - DemandDemand-side alternatives to transmission • Integration of natural gas

Eto, Joseph H.; Lesieutre, Bernard; Widergren, Steven

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

Updated 1-12 William H. Luebke, Ph.D.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

team in all aspects of independent performance, readiness, engineering and training assessment of a wide array of Navy and Marine Corps combat and weapons systems. In 2011, concomitant with his NSWC% growth in Ship Design, Integration, and Engineering obligation authority, exceeding $500M annually and $3

479

Forecasting future volatility from option prices, Working  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Weisbach are gratefully acknowledged. I bear full responsibility for all remaining errors. Forecasting Future Volatility from Option Prices Evidence exists that option prices produce biased forecasts of future volatility across a wide variety of options markets. This paper presents two main results. First, approximately half of the forecasting bias in the S&P 500 index (SPX) options market is eliminated by constructing measures of realized volatility from five minute observations on SPX futures rather than from daily closing SPX levels. Second, much of the remaining forecasting bias is eliminated by employing an option pricing model that permits a non-zero market price of volatility risk. It is widely believed that option prices provide the best forecasts of the future volatility of the assets which underlie them. One reason for this belief is that option prices have the ability to impound all publicly available information – including all information contained in the history of past prices – about the future volatility of the underlying assets. A second related reason is that option pricing theory maintains that if an option prices fails to embody optimal forecasts of the future volatility of the underlying asset, a profitable trading strategy should be available whose implementation would push the option price to the level that reflects the best possible forecast of future volatility.

Allen M. Poteshman

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

Of Mice and Men: Evolution and the Socialist Utopia. William Morris, H.G. Wells, and George Bernard Shaw*  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Of Mice and Men: Evolution and the Socialist Utopia. William Morris, H.G. Wells, and George Bernard, and imagined a non-Malthusian future. H.G. Wells, an enthusiastic admirer of Morris in the early days of change he called ``creative evolution.'' Keywords: William Morris, H.G. Wells, G.B. Shaw, Malthus, August

Hale, Piers J.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast integration william" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

Forecast Bias Correction: A Second Order Method  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The difference between a model forecast and actual observations is called forecast bias. This bias is due to either incomplete model assumptions and/or poorly known parameter values and initial/boundary conditions. In this paper we discuss a method for estimating corrections to parameters and initial conditions that would account for the forecast bias. A set of simple experiments with the logistic ordinary differential equation is performed using an iterative version of a first order version of our method to compare with the second order version of the method.

Crowell, Sean

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

Industrial production index forecast: Methods comparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this work is to investigate the suitability of different methods as short term forecast tools. It is studied and compared the application of the Kalman filter method with other forecasting methods when applied to a set of qualitative and quantitative information. The work data set is made of qualitative surveys of conjunture and the industrial production index (IPI). The objective is the attainment of short term forecast models for the Portuguese IPI of the transforming industry. After the previous treatment of the data

M. Filomena Teodoro

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy Criteria for Technical forecasts of monsoon can significantly aid many sectors like agriculture, power and production industries to the operational forecast, to develop and deliver customized monsoon forecasts based on user need is required

Swathi, P S

485

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

Optimal Updating of Forecasts for the Timing of Future Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A major problem in forecasting is estimating the time of some future event. traditionally, forecasts are designed to minimize an error cost function that is evaluated once, possibly when the event occurs and forecast accuracy can be determined. However, ... Keywords: Air Transportation, Dynamic Programming Applications, Forecasting

Juhwen Hwang; Medini R. Singh; W. J. Hurley; Robert A. Shumsky

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

487

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand prepared the residential sector forecast. Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Lynn

488

R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1999 NEW and wage growth slow later in the forecast, income growth will average 5% a year between 2000 and 2004. Over the forecast period, population growth will average 0.5% a year. The population will rise from 8

489

R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2001 NEW JERSEY each year. The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey looks for growth in real output of 2.6 percent years. Over the forecast period, both the construction and manufacturing sectors will lose jobs

490

R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2001 NEW JERSEY and 2005, and by an average of 43,000 thereafter (from 2005 to 2020). The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey.6 percent a year over the rest of the forecast period. Personal income will rise 5.6 percent this year, down

491

R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 1999 NEW JERSEY the rate of inflation should remain under 3% a year. (See Table 1.) #12;Throughout the forecast period and wage growth slow later in the forecast period, income growth will average 4.8% a year between 2000

492

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill? Greg Roff,1 forecast skill at high Southern latitudes is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model configurations that differ only in vertical resolution above 100 hPa. An ensemble of twelve 30day forecasts

493

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA or adequacy of the information in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast forecast. Bryan Alcorn and Mehrzad Soltani Nia prepared the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia- Cerrutti

494

R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1998 NEW 1997 will continue-- though at a reduced rate--through the forecast period that ends in 2001. New inflation of about 1.5%. In 1998, R/ECONTM forecasts that employment will rise by 76,000 jobs, or 2

495

R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 2000 NEW JERSEY and 2002, with 84,800 jobs being added over the two-year period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey the rest of the forecast period as foreign immigration declines and the population ages. In the next 10

496

R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuation of the current expansion but at a somewhat slower pace in employment through the forecast period will be in services and trade. We also expect considerable growth

497

R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuing but slowing expansion. (See Table 1.) In 1998, employment rose increased by 0.7% in 1998. It will slow a bit over the forecast period as foreign immigration declines. #12

498

R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2000 NEW JERSEY to more inflation and higher interest rates. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey looks for employment.6% a year over the forecast period. The services and trade sectors will provide 90% of the net increase

499

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast, the uncertainty of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity data due to the chaotic dynamics of the atmosphere is the salient reason for errors

Ross, Shane

500

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations

Kim, Kiho