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Sample records for forecast integration paul

  1. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  2. NREL: Energy Analysis - Paul Denholm

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Paul Denholm is a member of the Energy Forecasting and Modeling Group in the Strategic ... Methods for Analyzing the Benefits and Costs of Distributed Photovoltaic Generation to ...

  3. David Paul

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    David Paul David Paul David-Paul.jpg David Paul Computational Systems Group DPaul@lbl.gov Phone: (510) 495-2883 Fax: (510) 486-4316 1 Cyclotron Road Mail Stop 943-256 Berkeley, CA...

  4. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... RIT forecasting is saving costs and improving operational practices for IPC and helping integrate wind power more efficiently and cost effectively. Figure 3 shows how the ...

  5. Paul Jines

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Paul Jines Title: Computer Analyst 3 Office Tel. : (225) 578-9351 Pager: 231-3966

  6. Paul Wegner

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    paul wegner Paul Wegner Paul Wegner Program Director, Laser S&T and Systems Engineering NIF & Photon Science Dr. Paul Wegner, program director for Laser Science & Technology and Systems Engineering, has more than 30 years of experience developing solid-state inertial confinement fusion laser systems beginning with the Nova laser at LLNL in 1984. Dr. Wegner received his B.S. in physics and mathematics from Portland State University in 1984 and his Ph.D. in applied science from the

  7. Paul Adams

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Paul Adams Print ALS Division Deputy for Biosciences, Chair of the ALS Biosciences Council, Advanced Light Source, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Deputy...

  8. Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System ...

  9. Integration of Rooftop Photovoltaic Systems in St. Paul Ford Site's Redevelopment Plans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olis, D.; Mosey, G.

    2015-03-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to estimate how much electricity the redeveloped Ford Motor Company assembly plant site in St. Paul, Minnesota, might consume under different development scenarios and how much rooftop photovoltaic (PV) generation might be possible at the site. Because the current development scenarios are high-level, preliminary sketches that describe mixes of residential, retail, commercial, and industrial spaces, electricity consumption and available rooftop area for PV under each scenario can only be grossly estimated. These results are only indicative and should be used for estimating purposes only and to help inform development goals and requirements moving forward.

  10. Paul Ross

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As a U.S. Government contracting officer and former director of several contracting offices, Paul Ross has supported the purchase of services and supplies for deployed troops, as well as numerous...

  11. Paul Spitsen

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Paul Spitsen is an Energy Technology Specialist on the Policy and Analysis Team in EERE’s Office of Strategic Programs. He explores how crosscutting policies impact the deployment of...

  12. Paul Cunningham

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Mr. Paul Cunningham is the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Chief Information Security Officer (CISO).  Mr. Cunningham manages the Department’s Enterprise Cybersecurity Program and...

  13. Paul Wefel

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Paul Wefel About ESnet Our Mission The Network ESnet History Governance & Policies Career Opportunities ESnet Staff & Org Chart ESnet Leadership Administration Advanced Network Technologies Cybersecurity Infrastructure, Identity & Collaboration Network Engineering Dale Carder Paul Wefel Network Planning Operational Enhancements Office of the CTO Science Engagement Tools Team Contact Us Contact Us Technical Assistance: 1 800-33-ESnet (Inside US) 1 800-333-7638 (Inside US) 1

  14. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  15. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  16. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  17. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting behind-the-meter distributed PV generation power production within a region ... This project is expected to reduce the costs of integrating higher penetrations of PV into ...

  18. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  19. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  20. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  1. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  2. Paul Grabowski | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Paul Grabowski About Us Paul Grabowski - Demonstration and Deployment, Bioenergy Technologies Office Most Recent Reducing Waste and Harvesting Energy This Halloween October 30

  3. Paul Lester | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Paul Lester About Us Paul Lester - Digital Content Specialist, Office of Public Affairs Most Recent 6 Smart Energy Resolutions for 2016 December 30 Future Home Tech: 8...

  4. Signature of Paul J. HommertSignature of Paul J. Hommert Signature...

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    J. HommertSignature of Paul J. Hommert Signature of Paul J. HommertSignature of Paul J. Hommert Signature of Paul J. HommertSignature of Paul J. Hommert Signature of Paul J....

  5. St Paul's cathedral

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2011-04-25

    Visite de la cathédrale Saint-Paul au centre de Londres. Le révérend Bill Atkins commente cette magnifique église baroque, dessinée par Sir Christopher Wren en 1673

  6. Paul M. Dabbar

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Paul Dabbar is Managing Director in the Global Mergers & Acquisitions Group, and Head of Power and Gas Mergers & Acquisitions at J.P. Morgan, the investment banking division of JPMorgan...

  7. Paul L. Joskow

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

     Dr. Paul L. Joskow is president of the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.  Prior to joining the Foundation he was the Elizabeth and James Killian Professor of Economics and Management at MIT ...

  8. Paul E. Ross

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As a U.S. Government contracting officer and former director of several contracting offices, Paul Ross has supported the purchase of services and supplies for deployed troops, as well as numerous...

  9. John Paul Jones

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    John Paul Jones About ESnet Our Mission The Network ESnet History Governance & Policies Career Opportunities ESnet Staff & Org Chart ESnet Leadership Administration Advanced Network Technologies Cybersecurity Infrastructure, Identity & Collaboration Network Engineering Dale Carder Paul Wefel Network Planning Operational Enhancements Office of the CTO Science Engagement Tools Team Contact Us Contact Us Technical Assistance: 1 800-33-ESnet (Inside US) 1 800-333-7638 (Inside US) 1

  10. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  11. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on

  12. Conversation with Paul Brown | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Conversation with Paul Brown Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Personal Communication: Conversation with Paul Brown Author Paul Brown Recipient...

  13. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  14. Colloquy to Paul Musset

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2011-04-25

    En honneur de Paul Musset il a été décidé de faire plutôt un colloque scientifique à la place d'une cérémonie. Plusieurs personnes temoignent de leurs estime et amitié pour ce physicien et ses activités

  15. Thomas Pauling | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Thomas Pauling About Us Thomas Pauling Acting Director, Office of Legacy Management Deputy Director, Office of Legacy Management Acting Director, Office of Business Operations Thomas Pauling became the Acting Director for the LM Office of Legacy Management in June 2016, the Deputy Director in May 2016, and Acting Director of the LM Office of Business Operations in March 2016. Mr. Pauling has also served LM as Director of Site Operations, Environment Team Leader, and staff-level Site Manager.

  16. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  17. Paul Bosco | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Leadership » Paul Bosco About Us Paul Bosco - Director, Office of Project Management Oversight & Assessments Paul Bosco serves as the Director of the Office of Project Management Oversight and Assessments. This office validates the project performance baselines, to include scope, cost and schedule, of the Department's largest construction and environmental clean-up projects prior to budget request to Congress; an active project portfolio totaling over $30 billion. This Office also conducts

  18. Paul Bodnar | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Bodnar About Us Paul Bodnar - Senior Director for Energy and Climate Change, National Security Council Most Recent Announcing "Mission Innovation" November 29

  19. Paul Gunning | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Gunning About Us Paul Gunning - Director, Climate Change Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Most Recent New Biogas Opportunities Roadmap is Part of Climate Change Solution August

  20. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  1. Project Management Perspective - Paul Bosco, Director, Office...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Project Management Perspective - Paul Bosco, Director, Office of Acquisition and Project Management Project Management Perspective - Paul Bosco, Director, Office of Acquisition and ...

  2. Paul Scherrer Institut | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Paul Scherrer Institut Jump to: navigation, search Name: Paul Scherrer Institut Place: Aargau, Villigen Zip: 5232 Number of Employees: 1001-5000 Website: www.psi.ch Coordinates:...

  3. Paul Bryan | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Bryan About Us Paul Bryan - Biomass Program Manager, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Paul Bryan is Program Manager for the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy's Biomass Program. Most Recent Producing Clean, Renewable Diesel from Biomass November 30 The How's and Why's of Replacing the Whole Barrel October 19 Billion-Ton Update: Home-Grown Energy Resources Across the Nation August 1

  4. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01

    features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

  5. Paul D. Boyer, Adenosine Triphosphate (ATP), and the Binding...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Paul D. Boyer, Adenosine Triphosphate (ATP), and the Binding Change Mechanism Resources with Additional Information Paul D. Boyer Courtesy of UCLA 'For Paul Boyer, the Nobel Prize ...

  6. Saint Paul Island Wind Farm | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Paul Island Wind Farm Jump to: navigation, search Name Saint Paul Island Wind Farm Facility Saint Paul Island Sector Wind energy Facility Type Community Wind Facility Status In...

  7. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  8. Paul A. Fleury | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Paul A. Fleury About Us Paul A. Fleury - Member, Commission to Review the Effectiveness of the National Energy Laboratories Paul A. Fleury Paul A. Fleury is the Frederick William Beinecke Professor of Engineering and Applied Physics, and Professor of Physics at Yale University. He is the founding Director of the Yale Institute for Nanoscience and Quantum Engineering. He served as Dean of Engineering at Yale from 2000 until 2008. Prior to joining Yale Dr. Fleury was Dean of the School of

  9. Lee Berry, Paul Bonoli, David Green

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Lee Berry, Paul Bonoli, David Green Lee Berry, Paul Bonoli, David Green FES Requirements Worksheet 1.1. Project Information - Center for Simulation of Wave-Plasma Interactions (aka RF SciDAC) Document Prepared By Lee Berry, Paul Bonoli, David Green Project Title Center for Simulation of Wave-Plasma Interactions (aka RF SciDAC) Principal Investigator Paul Bonoli Participating Organizations Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,

  10. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  11. NREL: Energy Analysis - Paul Schwabe

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Senior Analyst, Consolidated Edison Inc., Volume and Revenue Forecasting New York, NY ... P. Schwabe, and K. Cory. 2012. Impact of Financial Structure on the Cost of Solar Energy. ...

  12. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  13. Solar for St. Paul | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Paul. | Photo courtesy of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy A new 82 kilowatt solar photovoltaic installation at the RiverCentre convention complex is unveiled ...

  14. St. Paul Biomass Facility | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    USA Biomass National Map Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleSt.PaulBiomassFacility&oldid398161" Feedback Contact needs updating Image needs updating...

  15. Paul Hommert PRESIDENT AND LABORATORIES DIRECTOR

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    World-changing technologies. Life-changing careers. sandia.govcareers VISION RESEARCH SKILLS TALENTS Paul Hommert PRESIDENT AND LABORATORIES DIRECTOR "Throughout its ...

  16. Paul Rich | Argonne Leadership Computing Facility

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Rich Software Development Specialist Paul Rich Argonne National Laboratory 9700 South Cass Avenue Building 240 - Rm. 3126 Argonne, IL 60439 630-252-2430 richp@alcf.anl...

  17. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the integration cost of high levels of solar energy into the electricity grid. This will help SunShot to assess current technology and practices in this field and identify the gaps and needs for further research.

  18. Project Management Update - Paul Bosco, Director, Office of Acquisitio...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Update - Paul Bosco, Director, Office of Acquisition & Project Mgt Project Management Update - Paul Bosco, Director, Office of Acquisition & Project Mgt 2014 DOE Project Management ...

  19. City of St Paul, Nebraska (Utility Company) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Paul, Nebraska (Utility Company) Jump to: navigation, search Name: City of St Paul Place: Nebraska Phone Number: 308.754.4661 Website: www.stpaulnebraska.comlive-he Outage...

  20. Robert Albers, Paul Johnson and Kurt Sickafus

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2008 Fellows December 4, 2008 Robert Albers, Paul Johnson and Kurt Sickafus recognized for contributions LOS ALAMOS, New Mexico, December 4, 2008-Los Alamos National Laboratory Director Michael Anastasio has announced selection of three exceptional scientists as 2008 Laboratory Fellows. Designation as a Laboratory Fellow is recognition of sustained outstanding scientific contributions and exceptional promise for continued professional achievement. Robert C. Albers, Paul A. Johnson and Kurt E.

  1. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter

  2. QER- Comment of Paul Martin

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    to upgrade the corridors for maximum transmission capacity and to facilitate that process with both the investment of federal dollars as well as easing rate basing restrictions. Thank you for your consideration. Best regards, Paul Martin Intermountain Wind, LLC

  3. Carbon Cycle 2.0: Paul Alivisatos: Introduction

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Paul Alivisatos

    2010-09-01

    Berkeley Lab Director Paul Alivisatos speaks at the Carbon Cycle 2.0 kick-off symposium Feb. 1, 2010. Humanity emits more carbon into the atmosphere than natural processes are able to remove - an imbalance with negative consequences.Carbon Cycle 2.0 is a Berkeley Lab initiative to provide the science needed to restore this balance by integrating the Labs diverse research activities and delivering creative solutions toward a carbon-neutral energy future. http://carboncycle2.lbl.gov/

  4. Paul D. Boyer, Adenosine Triphosphate (ATP), and the Binding...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ... National Museum of American History A Conversation with UCLA Professor Emeritus Paul D. Boyer Paul D. Boyer Hall Patent: US 7,560,117; Foamy Virus Mutant Reverse Transcriptase

  5. The Paul Trap Simulator Experiment (PTSX) | Princeton Plasma...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Paul Trap Simulator Experiment (PTSX) The Paul Trap Simulator Experiment (PTSX) at the U.S. Department of Energy's Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory doesn't trap people named...

  6. City of Saint Paul, Alaska (Utility Company) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    City of Saint Paul, Alaska (Utility Company) Jump to: navigation, search Name: City of Saint Paul Place: Alaska Phone Number: 907-546-3165 Website: www.stpaulak.communicipal-pow...

  7. City of North St Paul, Minnesota (Utility Company) | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Paul, Minnesota (Utility Company) Jump to: navigation, search Name: City of North St Paul Place: Minnesota Phone Number: 651.747.2413 or 651.747.2417 Website: www.ci.north-saint-pa...

  8. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  9. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  10. Paul W. King, Ph.D., M.S. | Bioenergy | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Paul W. King Paul W. King, Ph.D., M.S. Scientist VI - Supervisor, Photobiology Group Paul.King@nrel.gov | 303-384-6277 Research Interests Paul King's research interests are broadly ...

  11. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  12. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  13. MEMORANDUM FOR DISTRIBUTION FROM: PAUL BOSCO

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    July 14, 2014 MEMORANDUM FOR DISTRIBUTION FROM: PAUL BOSCO ~ * u :>~ SUBJECT: DIRECTOR \ ' ( ) OFFICE OF ACQUISITION AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT JOSEPH WADDELL ~* OFFICE OF ACQUISITIOl)Vf'JIANAG NATIONAL NUCLEAB--5ECURITY ADMINISTRATION Call for 2015 Team Members - Independent Peer Review for Contractor Purchasing Systems As you are aware, the Procurement Evaluation and Reengineering Team (PERT) has a proven track record within the Department of Energy (DOE) complex for effectively reviewing

  14. Simply Wrong vs. Simple Professor Paul Steinhardt

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Simply Wrong vs. Simple Professor Paul Steinhardt Princeton University September 7, 2016 4:00 p.m. - Wilson Hall, One West This talk will explain why the big bang inflationary picture fails as a scientific theory to explai the observed properties of the universe and how the lessons learned, combined with recent cosmologicala and particle physics experiments and some theoretical advances, ar pointing to a simpler explanation.

  15. Solar Policy Environment: Minneapolis/St. Paul

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul joined forces to implement a comprehensive approach to promoting “Solar in the Cities” including commercial and residential solar installations, technical training programs, and city and state policy review. The Cities are marshalling a wide array of expertise through strategic partnerships with Xcel Energy, Minnesota Dept. of Commerce, Minnesota Renewable Energy Society, Green Institute, freEner-g, Int’l Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, League of Minnesota cities, Neighborhood Energy Connection, and Century College.

  16. Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Presentation by Paul Leiby of Oak ...

  17. Hawaii Energy Strategy: Program guide. [Contains special sections on analytical energy forecasting, renewable energy resource assessment, demand-side energy management, energy vulnerability assessment, and energy strategy integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-09-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy program, or HES, is a set of seven projects which will produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. It will include a comprehensive energy vulnerability assessment with recommended courses of action to decrease Hawaii's energy vulnerability and to better prepare for an effective response to any energy emergency or supply disruption. The seven projects are designed to increase understanding of Hawaii's energy situation and to produce recommendations to achieve the State energy objectives of: Dependable, efficient, and economical state-wide energy systems capable of supporting the needs of the people, and increased energy self-sufficiency. The seven projects under the Hawaii Energy Strategy program include: Project 1: Develop Analytical Energy Forecasting Model for the State of Hawaii. Project 2: Fossil Energy Review and Analysis. Project 3: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Development Program. Project 4: Demand-Side Management Program. Project 5: Transportation Energy Strategy. Project 6: Energy Vulnerability Assessment Report and Contingency Planning. Project 7: Energy Strategy Integration and Evaluation System.

  18. Paul D. Boyer, Adenosine Triphosphate (ATP), and the Binding Change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mechanism Paul D. Boyer, Adenosine Triphosphate (ATP), and the Binding Change Mechanism Resources with Additional Information Paul D. Boyer Courtesy of UCLA 'For Paul Boyer, the Nobel Prize was "an unexpected pleasure." It had been 20 years since he formulated a hypothesis to describe what he calls "the most prominent chemical reaction in the whole world." It is the process by which molecules produce ATP (adenosine triphosphate), thereby transmuting light, air, water and

  19. Microfabricated linear Paul-Straubel ion trap

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mangan, Michael A.; Blain, Matthew G.; Tigges, Chris P.; Linker, Kevin L.

    2011-04-19

    An array of microfabricated linear Paul-Straubel ion traps can be used for mass spectrometric applications. Each ion trap comprises two parallel inner RF electrodes and two parallel outer DC control electrodes symmetric about a central trap axis and suspended over an opening in a substrate. Neighboring ion traps in the array can share a common outer DC control electrode. The ions confined transversely by an RF quadrupole electric field potential well on the ion trap axis. The array can trap a wide array of ions.

  20. Memorandum from Paul Bosco dated May, 20, 2012, Utlization of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Purchase Agreements Memorandum from Paul Bosco dated May, 20, 2012, Utlization of the General Services Administration's Federal Strategic Sourcing Initiative Blanket Purchase ...

  1. Job Creation and Energy Savings in St. Paul, Minnesota

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Check out this video where Mayor Chris Coleman explains how St. Paul is using grant money to create jobs while cutting waste and saving energy.

  2. Abendroth, John M.; Bushuyev, Oleksandr S.; Weiss, Paul S.; Barrett...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Paul S.; Barrett, Christopher J. American Chemical Society None USDOE United States 2015-08-25 English Journal Article Journal Name: ACS Nano; Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue:...

  3. change. Constantine, Paul; Field, Richard V., Jr.; Boslough,...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Statistical surrogate models for prediction of high-consequence climate change. Constantine, Paul; Field, Richard V., Jr.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES;...

  4. North St. Paul, Minnesota: Energy Resources | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    St. Paul, Minnesota: Energy Resources Jump to: navigation, search Equivalent URI DBpedia Coordinates 45.0124657, -92.9918828 Show Map Loading map... "minzoom":false,"mappingse...

  5. Agustin Mihi and Paul V. Braun Materials Research Laboratory...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Agustin Mihi and Paul V. Braun Materials Research Laboratory, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Transfer of Preformed 3D Photonic Crystals onto Dye Sensitized Solar Cells...

  6. Meet CMI Researcher Paul Canfield | Critical Materials Institute

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Paul Canfield Image of Paul Canfield, researcher at Critical Materials Institute CMI researcher Dr. Paul C Canfield graduated, Suma Cum Laude, with a BS in Physics from the University of Virginia in 1983. He then performed his Master and Ph.D. work at UCLA with Professor George Gruner and received his Ph.D. in Experimental Condensed Matter physics in 1990. From 1990 - 1993 Dr. Canfield was a post-doctoral researcher in Los Alamos National Laboratory working with Drs. Joe Thompson and Zachary

  7. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 -0.9% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $424 3.9% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,992 2,082 4.5% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.37 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $371 $382 3.0% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,371 2,497 5.3% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  8. St. Paul, Minnesota: Energy Resources | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Map This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. St. Paul is a city in Ramsey County, Minnesota. It falls under Minnesota's 4th congressional district.12...

  9. Big Bang or Big Bounce? Professor Paul J. Steinhardt Princeton...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bang or Big Bounce? Professor Paul J. Steinhardt Princeton University Wednesday, Oct 30, 2013 - 4:15PM MBG AUDITORIUM Refreshments at 4:00PM The PrinceTon Plasma Physics laboraTory...

  10. How Energy Efficiency is Adding Jobs in St. Paul, Minnesota

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Saint Paul, Minnesota is using an energy efficiency grant to provide commercial retrofits that will allow a local produce distribution company to dramatically reduce its energy costs and add dozens...

  11. Distinguished Student Awards Paul Asare Agyapong, NEN-3, UGS...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Distinguished Student Awards Paul Asare Agyapong, NEN-3, UGS, Technical Ty Brooks, C-IIAC, UGS, Technical Amy Jordan, EES-16, GRA, Technical Heather Hughes, IRM-CAS, GRA, ...

  12. How Energy Efficiency is Adding Jobs in St. Paul, Minnesota

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Hannigan, Jim; Coleman, Chris; Oliver, LeAnn; Jambois, Louis

    2013-05-29

    Saint Paul, Minnesota is using an energy efficiency grant to provide commercial retrofits that will allow a local produce distribution company to dramatically reduce its energy costs and add dozens of new workers.

  13. St. Paul, Texas: Energy Resources | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Hide Map This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. St. Paul is a town in Collin County, Texas. It falls under Texas's 4th congressional...

  14. VEE-0061- In the Matter of Paul Smith Oil Company

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On May 24, 1999, Paul Smith Oil Company (Smith) filed an Application for Exception with the Office of Hearings and Appeals of the Department of Energy. In its Application, Smith asks that it be...

  15. Under the OWASS Spotlight: Interview with Paul Azunre | MIT-Harvard Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    for Excitonics Under the OWASS Spotlight: Interview with Paul Azunre 9.4.2012

  16. Minneapolis and Saint Paul, Minnesota: Solar in Action (Brochure), Solar

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    America Cities, Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE) | Department of Energy Minneapolis and Saint Paul, Minnesota: Solar in Action (Brochure), Solar America Cities, Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE) Minneapolis and Saint Paul, Minnesota: Solar in Action (Brochure), Solar America Cities, Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE) This brochure provides an overview of the challenges and successes of Minneapolis, MN, a 2008 Solar America City awardee, on the path

  17. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-10-03

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

  18. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  19. Minneapolis/St. Paul: Taking Solar to the Cities | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Minneapolis/St. Paul: Taking Solar to the Cities Minneapolis/St. Paul: Taking Solar to the Cities April 13, 2011 - 4:16pm Addthis An aerial view of the solar installation | courtesy of District Energy St. Paul An aerial view of the solar installation | courtesy of District Energy St. Paul April Saylor April Saylor Former Digital Outreach Strategist, Office of Public Affairs Last month, St. Paul, Minnesota unveiled the largest solar thermal project in the Upper Midwest on the roof of the St. Paul

  20. Paul Blom: Research Director, Max Planck Institute for Polymer Research |

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Center for Energy Efficient Materials Paul Blom: Research Director, Max Planck Institute for Polymer Research Jan 22, 2014 | 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM Paul Blom Research Director, Max Planck Institute for Polymer Research Transport and Recombination in Polymer:fullerene bulk Heterojunction Solar Cells January 22, 2014 | 2:00pm | ESB 2001 Faculty host: Thuc Quyen-Nguyen >>>Video and Slides available after the presentation* Abstract In solar cells, free charge carriers can recombine both via

  1. EECBG Success Story: St. Paul Parking Ramp Serves as a Model...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Paul Parking Ramp Serves as a Model for Sustainability EECBG Success Story: St. Paul Parking Ramp Serves as a Model for Sustainability April 17, 2014 - 2:10pm Addthis Upgrades such ...

  2. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  3. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  4. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  5. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  6. St. Paul Parking Ramp Serves as a Model for Sustainability | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy St. Paul Parking Ramp Serves as a Model for Sustainability St. Paul Parking Ramp Serves as a Model for Sustainability April 17, 2014 - 1:33pm Addthis Upgrades such as new energy efficient lighting have helped slash energy use at the RiverCentre parking ramp in St. Paul, Minnesota by 50%. | Photo courtesy of City of St. Paul Upgrades such as new energy efficient lighting have helped slash energy use at the RiverCentre parking ramp in St. Paul, Minnesota by 50%. | Photo courtesy of City

  7. Dipole Excitation With A Paul Ion Trap Mass Spectrometer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MacAskill, J. A.; Madzunkov, S. M.; Chutjian, A.

    2011-06-01

    Preliminary results are presented for the use of an auxiliary radiofrequency (rf) excitation voltage in combination with a high purity, high voltage rf generator to perform dipole excitation within a high precision Paul ion trap. These results show the effects of the excitation frequency over a continuous frequency range on the resultant mass spectra from the Paul trap with particular emphasis on ion ejection times, ion signal intensity, and peak shapes. Ion ejection times are found to decrease continuously with variations in dipole frequency about several resonant values and show remarkable symmetries. Signal intensities vary in a complex fashion with numerous resonant features and are driven to zero at specific frequency values. Observed intensity variations depict dipole excitations that target ions of all masses as well as individual masses. Substantial increases in mass resolution are obtained with resolving powers for nitrogen increasing from 114 to 325.

  8. Distinguished Student Awards Paul Asare Agyapong, NEN-3, UGS, Technical

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Distinguished Student Awards Paul Asare Agyapong, NEN-3, UGS, Technical Ty Brooks, C-IIAC, UGS, Technical Amy Jordan, EES-16, GRA, Technical Heather Hughes, IRM-CAS, GRA, Administrative Alison Tamasi, C-NR, GRA, Technical Andrea Vargas, ITPMO, GRA, Administrative Naomi Wasserman, EES-14, UGS, Technical Distinguished Mentor Awards Joysree Aubrey, IAT-DO Alina Deshpande, DSA-3 Andrew Nelson, MST-7 Robert Robey, XCP-2 Information Technology Cody Jackson, "Evaluating Cyber Security Policies

  9. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable.

  10. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  11. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  12. Paul Bohn, Three Persistent Challenges | U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Paul Bohn, Three Persistent Challenges Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, & Biosciences (CSGB) Division CSGB Home About Research Areas Reports and Activities Science Highlights Principal Investigators' Meetings BES Home Third DOE BES Separations Research Workshop Paul Bohn, Three Persistent Challenges Print Text Size: A A A FeedbackShare Page Third DOE/Basic Energy Sciences Separations Research Workshop Savannah DeSoto Hilton, Savannah, Georgia May 12-14, 1999 Three Persistent Challenges Paul

  13. UC President Mark Yudof Announces Appointment of Paul Alivisatos as Berkeley Lab Director

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Yudof, Mark

    2013-05-29

    In this video, broadcast to Berkeley Lab staff on Nov. 20, 2009, UC President Mark Yudof announces Paul Alivisatos as the new director of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

  14. A. Paul Alivisatos, 2006 | U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    A. Paul Alivisatos, 2006 Print Text Size: A A A FeedbackShare Page Materials Research: For chemical synthesis and characterization of functional semiconducting nanocrystals, also ...

  15. 10 CFR 850, Request for Information- Docket Number: HS-RM-10-CBDPP- Paul A. Schulte

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Commenter: Paul A. Schulte 10 CFR 850 - Request for Information Docket Number: HS-RM-10-CBDPP Comment Close Date: 2/22/2011

  16. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  18. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  19. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  20. Paul Mutolo talks about Honorable Transportation - TEDxChemungRiver > EMC2

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    News > The Energy Materials Center at Cornell Paul Mutolo talks about Honorable Transportation - TEDxChemungRiver January 4th, 2016 › Dr. Paul Mutolo spoke at TEDxChemungRiver 2015 in Corning, New York back in November. To view the video, go to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdq5H23qcY0. While Paul is a scientist and an entrepreneur, he is, at his heart, an environmentalist who believes advancements in alternative energy haven't come far enough. He is ever mindful of how the creation

  1. Paul J. Merges, PhD Director, Bureau of Radiation New York State...

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    AU62 & 1993 Paul J. Merges, PhD Director, Bureau of Radiation New York State Department of Environmental Conservation 50 Wolf Road Albany, New York 12233 1; Dear Dr. Merges: Your ...

  2. LSST Science Book, Version 2.0 Abell, Paul A.; /NASA, Houston...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    LSST Science Book, Version 2.0 Abell, Paul A.; NASA, Houston; Allison, Julius; Alabama A-M; Anderson, Scott F.; Washington U., Seattle; Andrew, John R.; NOAO, Tucson; Angel,...

  3. Paul C. Canfield, 2011 | U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Paul C. Canfield, 2011 The Ernest Orlando Lawrence Award Lawrence Award Home Nomination & Selection Guidelines Award Laureates 2010's 2000's 1990's 1980's 1970's 1960's Ceremony...

  4. Five Questions for an Expert: Paul Scheihing on Industrial Energy Management

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Paul Scheihing is a technology manager within the Energy Department’s Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) and a recognized expert in industrial energy management discusses the importance of his work.

  5. WBU-14-0011- In the Matter of Dr. Paul M. Cole, Ph.D

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On November 3, 2014, the Office of Hearings and Appeals (OHA) issued a decision denying a jurisdictional appeal filed by Dr. Paul M. Cole, Ph.D (Dr. Cole), a former Oak Ridge Institute for Science...

  6. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  7. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  8. Comprehensive Solutions for Integration of Solar Resources into...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    tool by incorporating accurate forecasting of solar generation, and then integrate ... and hence the costs of system integration of solar generation into the bulk power system. ...

  9. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  10. Memorandum from Paul Bosco dated May, 20, 2012, Utlization of the General

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Services Administration's Federal Strategic Sourcing Initiative Blanket Purchase Agreements | Department of Energy Paul Bosco dated May, 20, 2012, Utlization of the General Services Administration's Federal Strategic Sourcing Initiative Blanket Purchase Agreements Memorandum from Paul Bosco dated May, 20, 2012, Utlization of the General Services Administration's Federal Strategic Sourcing Initiative Blanket Purchase Agreements Bosco Memo May 29 2012.pdf (99.58 KB) More Documents &

  11. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  12. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  13. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  14. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  15. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Issues Affecting Renewable...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Variability of renewable energy sources Integration costs Frequency response Emissions System balancing Energy storage Transmission Solar and wind forecasting High-penetration ...

  16. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  17. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  18. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  19. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Soft Costs Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar ...

  20. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... will share their expertise with CLASIC and CHAPS forecasters and project leaders as they consult on the forecast that will determine the day's operations plan. -- Storm Prediction ...

  1. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  2. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  3. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  4. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-07-20.xlsx (72.85 KB) More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Assessment Report: OAS-V-15-01

  5. Harold Paul Fourth, 1974 | U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Harold Paul Fourth, 1974 The Ernest Orlando Lawrence Award Lawrence Award Home Nomination & Selection Guidelines Award Laureates 2010's 2000's 1990's 1980's 1970's 1960's Ceremony The Life of Ernest Orlando Lawrence Contact Information The Ernest Orlando Lawrence Award U.S. Department of Energy SC-2/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 P: (301) 903-2411 E: Email Us 1970's Harold Paul Fourth, 1974 Print Text Size: A A A FeedbackShare Page Physics: For major

  6. DOE - Office of Legacy Management -- Paul and Beekman - PA 0-05

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    Paul and Beekman - PA 0-05 FUSRAP Considered Sites Site: PAUL AND BEEKMAN (PA.0-05) Eliminated from further consideration under FUSRAP Designated Name: Not Designated Alternate Name: None Location: Philadelphia , Pennsylvania PA.0-05-1 Evaluation Year: 1987 PA.0-05-1 Site Operations: Produced aluminum cans for AEC slug development program. PA.0-05-1 Site Disposition: Eliminated - No indication radioactive material was used at the site PA.0-05-1 Radioactive Materials Handled: None Indicated

  7. Paul H. Rutherford, 1983 | U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Paul H. Rutherford, 1983 The Ernest Orlando Lawrence Award Lawrence Award Home Nomination & Selection Guidelines Award Laureates 2010's 2000's 1990's 1980's 1970's 1960's Ceremony The Life of Ernest Orlando Lawrence Contact Information The Ernest Orlando Lawrence Award U.S. Department of Energy SC-2/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 P: (301) 903-2411 E: Email Us 1980's Paul H. Rutherford, 1983 Print Text Size: A A A FeedbackShare Page Physics: For

  8. Speakers: Paul D. Holtberg, EIA John Conti, EIA Tom R. Eizember, Exxon Mobil Corporation

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    3: "EIA's 2010 Annual Energy Outlook Highlights" Speakers: Paul D. Holtberg, EIA John Conti, EIA Tom R. Eizember, Exxon Mobil Corporation Mary Novak, HIS Global Insight [Note: Recorders did not pick up introduction of panel (see biographies for details on the panelists) or introduction of session.] Paul: All right, now we're running a little bit late here after all, lunch, so let's get started if we could. Either way, my speakers will be cut down to only 10 minutes each and we'll just

  9. Production of Ar{sup q+} ions with a tandem linear Paul trap

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Higaki, H. Nagayasu, K.; Iwai, T.; Ito, K.; Okamoto, H.

    2015-06-29

    A tandem linear Paul trap was used to create highly charged Argon ions by electron impact ionizations. By improving the operation scheme, the production of Ar{sup 4+} ions was confirmed. Possible improvements for the future experiments with laser cooled Ca{sup +} ions are suggested.

  10. EECBG Success Story: St. Paul Parking Ramp Serves as a Model for Sustainability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The RiverCentre parking ramp in St. Paul, Minnesota, is racking up big savings. Energy-efficient improvements made to the structure by state and local officials have cut energy use by 50%, saving thousands of dollars annually. Learn more.

  11. Systems Performance Analyses of Alaska Wind-Diesel Projects; St. Paul, Alaska (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baring-Gould, I.

    2009-04-01

    This fact sheet summarizes a systems performance analysis of the wind-diesel project in St. Paul, Alaska. Data provided for this project include load data, average wind turbine output, average diesel plant output, dump (controlling) load, average net capacity factor, average net wind penetration, estimated fuel savings, and wind system availability.

  12. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  13. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  14. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... day-ahead wind generation forecasts yields an average of 195M savings in annual operating costs. Figure 6 shows how operating cost savings vary with improvements in forecasting. ...

  15. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  16. Western Wind and Solar Integration Study: Executive Summary,...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... benefit of integrating wind and solar forecasting into grid operations? * How can hydro ... different interstate transmission build-outs and in- cluded these costs in the scenarios. ...

  17. Bradbury Science Museum LOS ALAMOS, N. M., April 3, 2013-Col. Paul Tibbets IV, grandson of Enola Gay

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Grandson of Enola Gay pilot gives 70th anniversary lecture April 3, 2013 Paul Tibbets IV to remember his grandfather, share experiences of his own Air Force career April 10 at Bradbury Science Museum LOS ALAMOS, N. M., April 3, 2013-Col. Paul Tibbets IV, grandson of Enola Gay pilot Paul W. Tibbets Jr., talks about his grandfather and his experiences as a U.S. Air Force pilot flying B-1 and B-2 bombers during a talk at 5:30 p.m., April 10 at Los Alamos National Laboratory's Bradbury Science

  18. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  19. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Subcontracting / Subcontracting Forecasts / UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities

  20. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Finley, Catherine; Nakafuji, Dora; Peterson, Jack L.; Maggio, David; Marquis, Melinda

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

  1. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; et al

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

  2. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  3. EECBG Success Story: Job Creation and Energy Savings in St. Paul, Minnesota

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The city of St. Paul, Minnesota, and local produce distribution company, J&J Distributing, are taking a no-nonsense approach to cutting waste, saving energy and creating jobs in the Twin Cities. As part of the city’s $1.3 million Energy Efficiency Conservation Block Grant, J&J Distributing has upgraded its interior lighting system and replaced 44 rooftop refrigeration units with three energy efficient climate control systems. Learn more.

  4. DOE Zero Energy Ready Home Case Study: Amaris Custom Home, St.Paul, Minnesota (Fact Sheet),

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Custom Homes St. Paul, Minnesota The U.S. Department of Energy invites home builders across the country to meet the extraordinary levels of excellence and quality specified in DOE's Zero Energy Ready Home program (formerly known as Challenge Home). Every DOE Zero Energy Ready Home starts with ENERGY STAR Certified Homes Version 3.0 for an energy-efficient home built on a solid foundation of building science research. Advanced technologies are designed in to give you superior construction,

  5. Speakers: Michael Schaal, EIA Paul Argyropoulos, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2: "Biofuels: Continuing Shifts in the Industry and Long-Term Outlook" Speakers: Michael Schaal, EIA Paul Argyropoulos, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency R. Brooke Coleman, New Fuels Alliance Peter Gross, EIA Steven Hamburg, Environmental Defense Fund [Note: Recorders did not pick up introduction of panel (see biographies for details on the panelists) or introduction of session.] Michael: To the EIA-SAIS 2010 Energy Conference. This is session 2, "Biofuels: Continuing Shifts in

  6. Grid Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Named PRESCIENT, the software produces probabilistic forecasts automatically from deterministic historical forecasts for load, solar, andor wind power production and their ...

  7. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  8. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  9. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help

  10. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  11. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  12. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications » Market Studies » LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030. With declining costs and improving performance, LED products have been seeing increased adoption for general illumination applications. This is a positive development in terms of energy consumption, as LEDs use significantly

  13. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  14. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  15. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  16. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  17. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  18. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  19. Paul Adams

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Division. Dr. Adams' research focuses on the development of new algorithms and methods for structural biology, structural studies of large macromolecular machines, and...

  20. Paul Porter

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Opportunities ESnet Staff & Org Chart Administration Advanced Network Technologies Cybersecurity Infrastructure, Identity & Collaboration Network Engineering Office of the CTO...

  1. CASCADED USES OF GEOTHERMAL ENERGY Paul Brophy EGS, Inc. & GRC President

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    CASCADED USES OF GEOTHERMAL ENERGY Paul Brophy EGS, Inc. & GRC President John W. Lund Emeritus Geo-Heat Center Tonya "Toni" Boyd Emeritus Geo-Heat Center INTRODUCTION * Cascading is not a new concept * Combining heat and/or power provides - Increased net efficiency - Improved economics * Thermodynamics of geothermal plants - Lower than conventional plants - Due to lower working fluid temperatures * (550 o C vs <200 o C - 1,200 vs <390°F) INTRODUCTION 2 * 1 MWe geothermal

  2. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  3. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  4. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.

  5. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapiesmore » is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.« less

  6. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  7. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  8. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  9. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  10. Systems Integration | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Systems Integration Systems Integration Hawaii DREAMS of New Solar Technologies Hawaii DREAMS of New Solar Technologies Read more Plug and Play Solar PV for American Homes Plug and Play Solar PV for American Homes Read more Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Modal, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Modal, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Read more High PV Penetration with Energy Storage in Flagstaff, AZ High PV Penetration with Energy Storage

  11. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  12. Energy Systems Integration Facility Delivering on Promise to Strengthen

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    America's Clean Energy Innovation | Department of Energy Systems Integration Facility Delivering on Promise to Strengthen America's Clean Energy Innovation Energy Systems Integration Facility Delivering on Promise to Strengthen America's Clean Energy Innovation September 11, 2015 - 1:42pm Addthis NREL Senior Engineering Project Manager, Pat Moriarty, left and NREL Senior Engineer , Paul Fleming, review velocity (blue) and turbulence (yellow) in a simulation of the Lillgrund Wind Farm in

  13. Off-resonance energy absorption in a linear Paul trap due to mass selective resonant quenching

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sivarajah, I.; Goodman, D. S.; Wells, J. E.; Smith, W. W.; Narducci, F. A.

    2013-11-15

    Linear Paul traps (LPT) are used in many experimental studies such as mass spectrometry, atom-ion collisions, and ion-molecule reactions. Mass selective resonant quenching (MSRQ) is implemented in LPT either to identify a charged particle's mass or to remove unwanted ions from a controlled experimental environment. In the latter case, MSRQ can introduce undesired heating to co-trapped ions of different mass, whose secular motion is off resonance with the quenching ac field, which we call off-resonance energy absorption (OREA). We present simulations and experimental evidence that show that the OREA increases exponentially with the number of ions loaded into the trap and with the amplitude of the off-resonance external ac field.

  14. Control Of Screening Of A Charged Particle In Electrolytic Aqueous Paul Trap

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Park, Jae Hyun; Krstic, Predrag S.

    2011-06-01

    Individual charged particles could be trapped and confined by the combined radio-frequency and DC quadrupole electric field of an aqueous Paul trap. Viscosity of water improves confinement and extends the range of the trap parameters which characterize the stability of the trap. Electrolyte, if present in aqueous solution, may screen the charged particle and thus partially or fully suppress electrophoretic interaction with the applied filed, possibly reducing it to a generally much weaker dielectrophoretic interaction with an induced dipole. Applying molecular dynamics simulation we show that the quadrupole field has a different effect at the electrolyte ions and at much heavier charged particle, effectively eliminating the screening by electrolyte ions and reinstating the electrophoretic confinement.

  15. Integration of Novel Flux Coupling Motor and Current Source Inverter |

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Operations | Department of Energy Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power forecasting techniques into the operational tools used by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) to forecast customer load, and then validate their efficacy at enabling

  16. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  17. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  18. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  19. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  20. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  1. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  2. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  3. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  4. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  5. Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu Beyond the familiar flu,

  6. Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study Solar Dataset (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hummon, M.

    2014-04-01

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory produced solar power production data for the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS) including "real time" 5-minute interval data, "four hour ahead forecast" 60-minute interval data, and "day-ahead forecast" 60-minute interval data for the year 2006. This presentation provides a brief overview of the three solar power datasets.

  7. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  8. Microsoft PowerPoint - 4_PAUL_GOLDBERG_NMMSS_2014_Part 37 Presentation slides.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Increasing Security of Category 1 and 2 Material within the United States Paul Goldberg U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission 2 Overview  NRC Mission  Post September 11, 2001 Activities at NRC  International and Domestic Efforts  Security Requirements  National Materials Management Program  Conclusion 2 U.S. NRC Mission Regulate the Nation's civilian use of byproduct, source and special nuclear materials * Ensure adequate protection of the public health and safety * Promote the

  9. Advanced variable speed air-source integrated heat pump (AS-IHP...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... are difficult to forecast 10 Project Integration: The project is bas ed on a collaborative R&D Project Integration and Collaboration agreement (CRADA) with Nordyne (US HVAC OEM). ...

  10. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  11. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  12. Western Wind and Solar Integration Study | Grid Modernization...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Value of Wind Power Forecasting Impact of ... Phase 2 of WWSIS was initiated to determine the wear-and-tear costs and emissions impacts ...

  13. Wind Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Generation - ScheduledActual Balancing Reserves - Deployed Near Real-time Wind Animation Wind Projects under Review Growth Forecast Fact Sheets Working together to address...

  14. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  15. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  16. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  17. Regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a quasi-operational forecasting environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zupanski, M. )

    1993-08-01

    Four-dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to a regional forecast model as part of the development of a new data assimilation system at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The assimilation employs an operational version of the NMC's new regional forecast model defined in eta vertical coordinates, and data used are operationally produced optimal interpolation (OI) analyses (using the first guess from the NMC's global spectral model), available every 3 h. Humidity and parameterized processes are not included in the adjoint model integration. The calculation of gradients by the adjoint model is approximate since the forecast model is used in its full-physics operational form. All experiments are over a 12-h assimilation period with subsequent 48-h forecast. Three different types of assimilation experiments are performed: (a) adjustment of initial conditions only (standard [open quotes]adjoint[close quotes] approach), (b) adjustment of a correction to the model equations only (variational continuous assimilation), and (c) simultaneous or sequential adjustment of both initial conditions and the correction term. Results indicate significantly better results when the correction term is included in the assimilation. It is shown, for a single case, that the new technique [experiment (c)] is able to produce a forecast better than the current conventional OI assimilation. It is very important to note that these results are obtained with an approximate gradient, calculated from a simplified adjoint model. Thus, it may be possible to perform an operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation of realistic forecast models, even before more complex adjoint models are developed. Also, the results suggest that it may be possible to reduce the large computational cost of assimilation by using only a few iterations of the minimization algorithm. This fast convergence is encouraging from the prospective of operational use. 37 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  18. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  19. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  20. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  1. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  2. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  3. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  4. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  5. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  6. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  7. Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Presentation by Paul Leiby of Oak Ridge National Laboratory at the Joint Meeting on Hydrogen Delivery Modeling and Analysis, May 8-9, 2007 deliv_analysis_leiby.pdf (740.06 KB) More Documents & Publications DOE Hydrogen Transition Analysis Workshop Hydrogen Policy and Analyzing the Transition Hydrogen Transition Study

  8. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  9. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  10. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  11. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  12. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  13. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  14. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  15. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  16. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  17. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  18. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and ...

  19. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  20. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  1. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...

  2. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  3. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  4. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  5. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Cost Assignment - Only a few respondents partly or fully recover forecasting costs from variable generators. Many simply absorb the costs, possibly viewing them as relatively ...

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  7. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... The licensing arrangement helps to facilitate transfer of the statistical learning algorithms developed in the project to industry use. A leading forecast provider in the United ...

  8. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  9. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  10. Hanford Site waste treatment/storage/disposal integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MCDONALD, K.M.

    1999-02-24

    In 1998 Waste Management Federal Services of Hanford, Inc. began the integration of all low-level waste, mixed waste, and TRU waste-generating activities across the Hanford site. With seven contractors, dozens of generating units, and hundreds of waste streams, integration was necessary to provide acute waste forecasting and planning for future treatment activities. This integration effort provides disposition maps that account for waste from generation, through processing, treatment and final waste disposal. The integration effort covers generating facilities from the present through the life-cycle, including transition and deactivation. The effort is patterned after the very successful DOE Complex EM Integration effort. Although still in the preliminary stages, the comprehensive onsite integration effort has already reaped benefits. These include identifying significant waste streams that had not been forecast, identifying opportunities for consolidating activities and services to accelerate schedule or save money; and identifying waste streams which currently have no path forward in the planning baseline. Consolidation/integration of planned activities may also provide opportunities for pollution prevention and/or avoidance of secondary waste generation. A workshop was held to review the waste disposition maps, and to identify opportunities with potential cost or schedule savings. Another workshop may be held to follow up on some of the long-term integration opportunities. A change to the Hanford waste forecast data call would help to align the Solid Waste Forecast with the new disposition maps.

  11. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Hawaii Solar Integration...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wholesale Electricity Market Operations Energy Imbalance Markets FESTIV Model Active Power Controls Generator Modeling Forecasting Grid Simulation Transmission Planning & Analysis

  12. Technical analysis in short-term uranium price forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schramm, D.S.

    1990-03-01

    As market participants anticipate the end of the current uranium price decline and its subsequent reversal, increased attention will be focused upon forecasting future price movements. Although uranium is economically similar to other mineral commodities, it is questionable whether methodologies used to forecast price movements of such commodities may be successfully applied to uranium.

  13. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  14. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  15. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  16. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  17. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  18. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  19. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  20. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  1. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  2. Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Intharathirat, Rotchana; Abdul Salam, P.; Kumar, S.; Untong, Akarapong

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.

  3. Grid Integration of Aggregated Demand Response, Part 2: Modeling Demand Response in a Production Cost Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Grid Integration of Aggregated Demand Response, Part 2: Modeling Demand Response in a Production Cost Model Marissa Hummon, David Palchak, Paul Denholm, and Jennie Jorgenson National Renewable Energy Laboratory Daniel J. Olsen, Sila Kiliccote, Nance Matson, Michael Sohn, Cody Rose, Junqiao Dudley, and Sasank Goli Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Ookie Ma U.S. Department of Energy Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-58492 December 2013 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy

  4. Overview and Meteorological Validation of the Wind Integration National Dataset toolkit

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Draxl, C.; Hodge, B. M.; Clifton, A.; McCaa, J.

    2015-04-13

    The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit described in this report fulfills these requirements, and constitutes a state-of-the-art national wind resource data set covering the contiguous United States from 2007 to 2013 for use in a variety of next-generation wind integration analyses and wind power planning. The toolkit is a wind resource data set, wind forecast data set, and wind power production and forecast data set derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model. WIND Toolkit data are available online for over 116,000 land-based and 10,000 offshore sites representing existing and potential wind facilities.

  5. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

  6. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  7. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  8. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  9. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  10. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  11. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  12. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler ... M Jensen et al., March 2016, DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting ...

  13. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  14. DOE Publishes New Forecast of Energy Savings from LED Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy has just published the latest edition of its biannual report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, which models the...

  15. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  16. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind ...

  18. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  19. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  20. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  1. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and

  2. New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering illustrates the full site installation, including a new aerosol observing system (far left) and a precipitation radar (far right, with 20-ft tower). The site is located near the Graciosa Island aiport terminal, hidden by the image inset. | Image courtesy of ARM Climate Research Facility. This artist's

  3. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  4. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  5. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  6. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to

  7. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (stochastic) model with the weather forecast model (deterministic) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  8. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  9. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  10. Studies of emittance growth and halo particle production in intense charged particle beams using the Paul Trap Simulator Experiment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gilson, Erik P.; Davidson, Ronald C.; Dorf, Mikhail; Efthimion, Philip C.; Majeski, Richard; Chung, Moses; Gutierrez, Michael S.; Kabcenell, Aaron N.

    2010-05-15

    The Paul Trap Simulator Experiment (PTSX) is a compact laboratory experiment that places the physicist in the frame-of-reference of a long, charged-particle bunch coasting through a kilometers-long magnetic alternating-gradient (AG) transport system. The transverse dynamics of particles in both systems are described by the same set of equations, including nonlinear space-charge effects. The time-dependent voltages applied to the PTSX quadrupole electrodes in the laboratory frame are equivalent to the spatially periodic magnetic fields applied in the AG system. The transverse emittance of the charge bunch, which is a measure of the area in the transverse phase space that the beam distribution occupies, is an important metric of beam quality. Maintaining low emittance is an important goal when defining AG system tolerances and when designing AG systems to perform beam manipulations such as transverse beam compression. Results are reviewed from experiments in which white noise and colored noise of various amplitudes and durations have been applied to the PTSX electrodes. This noise is observed to drive continuous emittance growth and increase in root-mean-square beam radius over hundreds of lattice periods. Additional results are reviewed from experiments that determine the conditions necessary to adiabatically reduce the charge bunch's transverse size and simultaneously maintain high beam quality. During adiabatic transitions, there is no change in the transverse emittance. The transverse compression can be achieved either by a gradual change in the PTSX voltage waveform amplitude or frequency. Results are presented from experiments in which low emittance is achieved by using focusing-off-defocusing-off waveforms.

  11. Grid Integration and the Carrying Capacity of the U.S. Grid to Incorporate Variable Renewable Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Grid Integration and the Carrying Capacity of the U.S. Grid to Incorporate Variable Renewable Energy Jaquelin Cochran, Paul Denholm, Bethany Speer, and Mackay Miller National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-62607 April 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory

  12. Grid Integration and the Carrying Capacity of the U.S. Grid to Incorporate Variable Renewable Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Grid Integration and the Carrying Capacity of the U.S. Grid to Incorporate Variable Renewable Energy Jaquelin Cochran, Paul Denholm, Bethany Speer, and Mackay Miller National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-62607 April 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory

  13. Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Paul N. Leiby, David L. Greene and David Bowman Oak Ridge National Laboratory A presentation to the Hydrogen Delivery Analysis Meeting FreedomCAR and Fuels Partnership Delivery, Storage and Hydrogen Pathways Tech Teams May 8-9, 2007 Columbia, MD 2 OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY U. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Drawing from several other DOE models, HyTrans integrates supply and demand in a dynamic non-linear market model to 2050.

  14. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  15. Lessons from Large-Scale Renewable Energy Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In general, large-scale integration studies in Europe and the United States find that high penetrations of renewable generation are technically feasible with operational changes and increased access to transmission. This paper describes other key findings such as the need for fast markets, large balancing areas, system flexibility, and the use of advanced forecasting.

  16. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  17. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  18. Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts May 11, 2016 - 6:48pm Addthis Balancing the power grid is an art-or at least a scientific study in chaos-and the Energy Department is hoping wind energy can take a greater role in the act. Yet, the intermittency of wind-sometimes it's blowing, sometimes it's not-makes adding it smoothly to the nation's electrical grid a challenge.

  19. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-02-01

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  20. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  1. Mr. Paul Daley Heppenstall

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    (DOE) is conducting a program to investigate sites formerly used. by or for DOE predecessor agencies , including the Atomic Energy Commission, in the development of nuclear energy. ...

  2. John Paul Jones

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Opportunities ESnet Staff & Org Chart Administration Advanced Network Technologies Cybersecurity Infrastructure, Identity & Collaboration Network Engineering Office of the CTO...

  3. Integrating Variable Renewable Energy: Challenges and Solutions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Milligan, M.; Lew, D.

    2013-09-01

    In the U.S., a number of utilities are adopting higher penetrations of renewables, driven in part by state policies. While power systems have been designed to handle the variable nature of loads, the additional supply-side variability and uncertainty can pose new challenges for utilities and system operators. However, a variety of operational and technical solutions exist to help integrate higher penetrations of wind and solar generation. This paper explores renewable energy integration challenges and mitigation strategies that have been implemented in the U.S. and internationally, including forecasting, demand response, flexible generation, larger balancing areas or balancing area cooperation, and operational practices such as fast scheduling and dispatch.

  4. Human radiation studies: Remembering the early years: Oral history of medical physicist Katherine L. Lathrop and physician Paul V. Harper, conducted January 26, 1995

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-09-01

    This report provides a transcript of an interview with Ms. Katherine L. Lathrop and Dr. Paul V. Hopper by representatives of the DOE Office of Human Radiation Research. Ms. Lathrop and Dr. Hopper were chosen for this interview because of their long-standing interest and research experience in the development of nuclear medicine. After brief biographical sketches the researchers provide a broad and interesting description of their roles in the initial uses of many radiopharmaceuticals, their experiences in human experimentation, and interactions with many other pioneers in nuclear medicine.

  5. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  6. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  7. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  8. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information ...

  9. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods

  10. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  11. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  12. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  13. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  14. Grid Integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2008-09-01

    Summarizes the goals and activities of the DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program efforts within its grid integration subprogram.

  15. Procurement Integrity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    - ------------------------------Chapter 3.1 (Dec 2015) 1 Procurement Integrity [Reference: 41 U.S.C. 423, FAR 3.104, DEAR 903.104] Overview This section discusses the requirements of the Procurement Integrity Act and its impact on Federal employees. Background The Department of Energy (DOE), like most federal agencies, purchases many products and services from the private sector. To preserve the integrity of the Federal procurement process and assure fair treatment of bidders, offerors and

  16. Insolation integrator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dougherty, John J.; Rudge, George T.

    1980-01-01

    An electric signal representative of the rate of insolation is integrated to determine if it is adequate for operation of a solar energy collection system.

  17. Procurement Integrity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    To preserve the integrity of the Federal procurement process and assure fair treatment of bidders, offerors and contractors, laws govern the procurement process and the manner in ...

  18. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  19. Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process

  20. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  1. Two-Way Integration of WRF and CCSM for Regional Climate Simulations

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Two-Way Integration of WRF and CCSM for Regional Climate Simulations Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Two-Way Integration of WRF and CCSM for Regional Climate Simulations Under the support of the DOE award DE-SC0004670, we have successfully developed an integrated climate modeling system by nesting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model within the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the ensuing new generation Community Earth System

  2. DE-EE0006329 Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... The fractional derivatives, which are based on an integro-differential operator, ... Supplied by Itron, ALFS utilizes an artificial neural network methodology that incorporates ...

  3. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements.

  4. Grid Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    A lot that needs to be done to enable the transition towards larger shares of renewables in the power mix. The 5th International Conference on Integration of Renewable Energy and ...

  5. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  6. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  7. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  8. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconne...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular ...

  9. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  10. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    turbines operate closer to maximum capacity, leading to lower energy costs for consumers. ... for the Weather Research and Forecasting model, a widely used weather prediction system. ...

  11. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  12. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    electric system operators, and solar project owners better predict when and how much ... production varies, an accurate solar forecast is needed in order to maintain an ...

  13. Wind energy and power system operations: a review of wind integration studies to date

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cesaro, Jennifer de; Porter, Kevin; Milligan, Michael

    2009-12-15

    Wind integration will not be accomplished successfully by doing ''more of the same.'' It will require significant changes in grid planning and operations, continued technical evolution in the design and operation of wind turbines, further adoption and implementation of wind forecasting in the control room, and incorporation of market and policy initiatives to encourage more flexible generation. (author)

  14. Box Integrals

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bailey, David H.; Borwein, Jonathan M.; Crandall, Richard E.

    2006-06-01

    By a "box integral" we mean here an expectation $\\langle|\\vec r - \\vec q|^s \\rangle$ where $\\vec r$runs over the unit $n$-cube,with $\\vec q$ and $s$ fixed, explicitly:\\begin eqnarray*&&\\int_01 \\cdots \\int_01 \\left((r_1 - q_1)2 + \\dots+(r_n-q_n)2\\right)^ s/2 \\ dr_1 \\cdots dr_n.\\end eqnarray* The study ofbox integrals leads one naturally into several disparate fields ofanalysis. While previous studies have focused upon symbolic evaluationand asymptotic analysis of special cases (notably $s = 1$), we workherein more generally--in interdisciplinary fashion--developing resultssuch as: (1) analytic continuation (in complex $s$), (2) relevantcombinatorial identities, (3) rapidly converging series, (4) statisticalinferences, (5) connections to mathematical physics, and (6)extreme-precision quadrature techniques appropriate for these integrals.These intuitions and results open up avenues of experimental mathematics,with a view to new conjectures and theorems on integrals of thistype.

  15. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  16. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the systems ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  17. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  18. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  19. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  20. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  1. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  2. Energy Use Intensity and its Influence on the Integrated Daylighting...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Design of a Large Net Zero Energy Building Preprint Rob Guglielmetti, Jennifer Scheib, Shanti D. Pless, and Paul Torcellini National Renewable Energy Laboratory Rachel Petro RNL ...

  3. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  4. RADIATION INTEGRATOR

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Glass, F.M.; Wilson, H.N.

    1959-02-17

    Radiation detecting and measuring systems, particularly a compact, integrating, background monitor, are discussed. One of the principal features of the system is the use of an electrometer tube where the input of the tube is directly connected to an electrode of the radiation detector and a capacitor is coupled to the tube input. When a predetermined quantity of radiation has been integrated, a trigger signal is fed to a recorder and a charge is delivered to the capacitor to render the tube inoperative. The capacitor is then recharged for the next period of operation. With this arrangement there is a substantial reduction in lead lengths and the principal components may be enclosed and hermetically sealed to insure low leakage.

  5. Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Draxl, Caroline; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2015-07-14

    A webinar about the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit was presented by Bri-Mathias Hodge and Caroline Draxl on July 14, 2015. It was hosted by the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy. The toolkit is a grid integration data set that contains meteorological and power data at a 5-minute resolution across the continental United States for 7 years and hourly power forecasts.

  6. Refinery Integration

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Mary Biddy Sue Jones NREL PNNL This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Refinery Integration 4.1.1.31 NREL 4.1.1.51 PNNL Goal Statement GOALS: Model bio-intermediates insertion points to better define costs & ID opportunities, technical risks, information gaps, research needs Publish results Review with stakeholders 2 Leveraging existing refining infrastructure

  7. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  8. ACCELERATION INTEGRATOR

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Pope, K.E.

    1958-01-01

    This patent relates to an improved acceleration integrator and more particularly to apparatus of this nature which is gyrostabilized. The device may be used to sense the attainment by an airborne vehicle of a predetermined velocitv or distance along a given vector path. In its broad aspects, the acceleration integrator utilizes a magnetized element rotatable driven by a synchronous motor and having a cylin drical flux gap and a restrained eddy- current drag cap deposed to move into the gap. The angular velocity imparted to the rotatable cap shaft is transmitted in a positive manner to the magnetized element through a servo feedback loop. The resultant angular velocity of tae cap is proportional to the acceleration of the housing in this manner and means may be used to measure the velocity and operate switches at a pre-set magnitude. To make the above-described dcvice sensitive to acceleration in only one direction the magnetized element forms the spinning inertia element of a free gyroscope, and the outer housing functions as a gimbal of a gyroscope.

  9. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  10. Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan

    2014-09-12

    Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

  11. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Wind Integration Datasets

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Integration Datasets The datasets below provide energy professionals with a consistent set of ... Eastern and Western Wind Datasets WIND Toolkit Solar Integration Datasets ...

  12. NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Systems Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-level system integration New distribution scenarios such as household DC systems and residential-scale generation and storage integrated with home energy management systems. ...

  13. Advancements in Wind Integration Study Data Modeling: The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Draxl, C.; Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Jones, W.; Searight, K.; Getman, D.; Harrold, S.; McCaa, J.; Cline, J.; Clark, C.

    2013-10-01

    Regional wind integration studies in the United States require detailed wind power output data at many locations to perform simulations of how the power system will operate under high-penetration scenarios. The wind data sets that serve as inputs into the study must realistically reflect the ramping characteristics, spatial and temporal correlations, and capacity factors of the simulated wind plants, as well as be time synchronized with available load profiles. The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit described in this paper fulfills these requirements. A wind resource dataset, wind power production time series, and simulated forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model run on a nationwide 2-km grid at 5-min resolution will be made publicly available for more than 110,000 onshore and offshore wind power production sites.

  14. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  15. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  16. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  17. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  18. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Report forecasting the U.S. energy savings of LED white-light sources compared to conventional white-light sources (i.e., incandescent, halogen, fluorescent, and high-intensity discharge) over the...

  19. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  20. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below 3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly ...

  1. Signature of Paul Hommert Signature of Paul Hommert Signature...

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Signature of James Eanes Signature of James Eanes Signature of James Eanes Signature of JoAnn Wright...

  2. Signature of Paul Hommert Signature of Paul Hommert Signature...

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Signature of Geoffrey Beausoleil Signature of Geoffrey Beausoleil Signature of James Eanes Signature of James Eanes Signature of JoAnn Wright...

  3. Signature of Paul Hommert Signature of Paul Hommert Signature...

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    of Patty Wagner Signature of Jerry McDowell Signature of Jerry McDowell Signature of Kimberly Davis Signature of Kimberly Davis Signature of Kimberly Sawyer Signature of Kimberly...

  4. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  5. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  6. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  7. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  8. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  9. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  10. NREL: Process Development and Integration Laboratory - Integrated

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Measurements and Characterization Capabilities Integrated Measurements and Characterization Capabilities The Integrated Measurements and Characterization cluster tool in the Process Development and Integration Laboratory offers powerful capabilities with integrated tools for measuring and characterizing photovoltaic materials and devices. Contact Pete Sheldon for more details on these capabilities. Basic Cluster Tool Capabilities Sample Handling Ultra-high-vacuum robot Transport pod: allows

  11. Paul Lester | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    He moved to Washington in 2008 for a web editor role with the Guardian before working as a contractor for the Wind and Water Technologies Office, Small Business Administration and ...

  12. Paul Hewett | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Browse by Topic Energy Energy efficiency Vehicles Alternative fuels Automotive engineering Biofuels Diesel Fuel economy Fuel injection Heavy-duty vehicles Hybrid & electric...

  13. Paul Kearns | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Rome, Italy. This subsidiary of Battelle was founded to work in partnership with Italian government and industry to solve challenging problems in energy, security and the...

  14. Paul Phongsavan | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    His efforts focused on energy education, workforce data, and website efforts to help improve energy literacy. In this capacity he completed Drupal based web projects, interactive ...

  15. Grid Integration of Aggregated Demand Response, Part 2: Modeling Demand Response in a Production Cost Model

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Renewable integration studies have evaluated many challenges associated with deploying large amounts of variable wind and solar generation technologies. These studies can evaluate operational impacts associated with variable generation, benefits of improved wind and solar resource forecasting, and trade-offs between institutional changes, including increasing balancing area cooperation and technical changes such as installing new flexible generation. Demand response (DR) resources present a potentially important source of grid flexibility and can aid in integrating variable generation; however, integration analyses have not yet incorporated these resources explicitly into grid simulation models as part of a standard toolkit for resource planners.

  16. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  17. Market-Based Indian Grid Integration Study Options: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoltenberg, B.; Clark, K.; Negi, S. K.

    2012-03-01

    The Indian state of Gujarat is forecasting solar and wind generation expansion from 16% to 32% of installed generation capacity by 2015. Some states in India are already experiencing heavy wind power curtailment. Understanding how to integrate variable generation (VG) into the grid is of great interest to local transmission companies and India's Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. This paper describes the nature of a market-based integration study and how this approach, while new to Indian grid operation and planning, is necessary to understand how to operate and expand the grid to best accommodate the expansion of VG. Second, it discusses options in defining a study's scope, such as data granularity, generation modeling, and geographic scope. The paper also explores how Gujarat's method of grid operation and current system reliability will affect how an integration study can be performed.

  18. The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) toolkit (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Caroline Draxl: NREL

    2014-01-01

    Regional wind integration studies require detailed wind power output data at many locations to perform simulations of how the power system will operate under high penetration scenarios. The wind datasets that serve as inputs into the study must realistically reflect the ramping characteristics, spatial and temporal correlations, and capacity factors of the simulated wind plants, as well as being time synchronized with available load profiles.As described in this presentation, the WIND Toolkit fulfills these requirements by providing a state-of-the-art national (US) wind resource, power production and forecast dataset.

  19. Integrating Solar PV in Utility System Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mills, A.; Botterud, A.; Wu, J.; Zhou, Z.; Hodge, B-M.; Heany, M.

    2013-10-31

    This study develops a systematic framework for estimating the increase in operating costs due to uncertainty and variability in renewable resources, uses the framework to quantify the integration costs associated with sub-hourly solar power variability and uncertainty, and shows how changes in system operations may affect these costs. Toward this end, we present a statistical method for estimating the required balancing reserves to maintain system reliability along with a model for commitment and dispatch of the portfolio of thermal and renewable resources at different stages of system operations. We estimate the costs of sub-hourly solar variability, short-term forecast errors, and day-ahead (DA) forecast errors as the difference in production costs between a case with “realistic” PV (i.e., subhourly solar variability and uncertainty are fully included in the modeling) and a case with “well behaved” PV (i.e., PV is assumed to have no sub-hourly variability and can be perfectly forecasted). In addition, we highlight current practices that allow utilities to compensate for the issues encountered at the sub-hourly time frame with increased levels of PV penetration. In this analysis we use the analytical framework to simulate utility operations with increasing deployment of PV in a case study of Arizona Public Service Company (APS), a utility in the southwestern United States. In our analysis, we focus on three processes that are important in understanding the management of PV variability and uncertainty in power system operations. First, we represent the decisions made the day before the operating day through a DA commitment model that relies on imperfect DA forecasts of load and wind as well as PV generation. Second, we represent the decisions made by schedulers in the operating day through hour-ahead (HA) scheduling. Peaking units can be committed or decommitted in the HA schedules and online units can be redispatched using forecasts that are improved

  20. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and

  1. Contact Us - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - U.S. Energy

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Information Administration (EIA) Forecasting & Analysis Short-Term (STEO) Energy Forecast Experts Long-Term (AEO) Energy Forecast Experts International (IEO) Energy Forecast Experts Renewable Energy Forecast Experts Long-Term (AEO) Analysis and Forecasting Experts Fax: (202) 586-3045 Annual Energy Outlook General questions/Executive summary Paul Holtberg 202-586-1284 paul.holtberg@eia.gov Carbon dioxide emissions Perry Lindstrom 202-586-0934 perry.lindstrom@eia.gov Coal supply and prices

  2. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  3. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zulkepli, Jafri Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

    2015-12-11

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

  4. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  5. Thermal Control & System Integration

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The thermal control and system integration activity focuses on issues such as the integration of motor and power control technologies and the development of advanced thermal control technologies....

  6. Integrating Environmental Stewardship

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    stewardship Many Laboratory functions are integrated with environmental stewardship. This Strategy cannot be effective without systematic integration with other related Laboratory...

  7. Distribution Grid Integration

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE Systems Integration team funds distribution grid integration research and development (R&D) activities to address the technical issues that surround distribution grid planning,...

  8. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models

  9. ARM - Field Campaign - 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaigns915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2011.05.31 - 2012.05.31 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of the installation of a 37 MW solar array on the grounds of Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), a study

  10. ARM - Field Campaign - Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaignsRadar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2013.07.15 - 2015.08.06 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of recent activities funded by the DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) to produce short-term

  11. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  12. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  13. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year Rising crude oil prices are likely to be passed on to consumers at the pump, but U.S. drivers are still expected to pay the lowest summer gasoline prices since 2004, and for all of 2016 the average household will spend $900 less on gasoline than it did two years ago." In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average

  14. Upstream Measurements of Wind Profiles with Doppler Lidar for Improved Wind Energy Integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rodney Frehlich

    2012-10-30

    New upstream measurements of wind profiles over the altitude range of wind turbines will be produced using a scanning Doppler lidar. These long range high quality measurements will provide improved wind power forecasts for wind energy integration into the power grid. The main goal of the project is to develop the optimal Doppler lidar operating parameters and data processing algorithms for improved wind energy integration by enhancing the wind power forecasts in the 30 to 60 minute time frame, especially for the large wind power ramps. Currently, there is very little upstream data at large wind farms, especially accurate wind profiles over the full height of the turbine blades. The potential of scanning Doppler lidar will be determined by rigorous computer modeling and evaluation of actual Doppler lidar data from the WindTracer system produced by Lockheed Martin Coherent Technologies, Inc. of Louisville, Colorado. Various data products will be investigated for input into numerical weather prediction models and statistically based nowcasting algorithms. Successful implementation of the proposed research will provide the required information for a full cost benefit analysis of the improved forecasts of wind power for energy integration as well as the added benefit of high quality wind and turbulence information for optimal control of the wind turbines at large wind farms.

  15. Sandia Energy - Transmission Grid Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Transmission Grid Integration Home Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Photovoltaics Grid Integration Transmission Grid Integration Transmission Grid...

  16. Sandia Energy - Distribution Grid Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Distribution Grid Integration Home Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Photovoltaics Grid Integration Distribution Grid Integration Distribution Grid...

  17. Procurement Integrity Brochure What is Procurement Integrity?

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Procurement Integrity Brochure What is Procurement Integrity? The Department of Energy, like most federal agencies, purchases many products and services from the private sector. To preserve the integrity of the Federal procurement process and assure fair treatment of bidders, offerors, and contractors, laws govern the procurement process and the manner in which federal and contractor personnel conduct business with each other. One of these statutes is Section 27 of the Office of Federal

  18. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Wind Integration National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Wind and Water Power Technologies Office, and ... Principles for Integration Studies Glossary News Did you find what you needed? ...

  19. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  20. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  1. Integration of Uncertainty Information into Power System Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Lu, Shuai; Samaan, Nader A.; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Hafen, Ryan P.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning

    2011-10-10

    Contemporary power systems face uncertainties coming from multiple sources, including forecast errors of load, wind and solar generation, uninstructed deviation and forced outage of traditional generators, loss of transmission lines, and others. With increasing amounts of wind and solar generation being integrated into the system, these uncertainties have been growing significantly. It is critical important to build knowledge of major sources of uncertainty, learn how to simulate them, and then incorporate this information into the decision-making processes and power system operations, for better reliability and efficiency. This paper gives a comprehensive view on the sources of uncertainty in power systems, important characteristics, available models, and ways of their integration into system operations. It is primarily based on previous works conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL).

  2. Fully integrated and encapsulated micro-fabricated vacuum diode...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Inventors: Resnick, Paul J. ; Langlois, Eric Issue Date: 2015-12-01 OSTI Identifier: 1227357 Assignee: Sandia Corporation SSO Patent Number(s): 9,202,657 Application Number: 14...

  3. Method of manufacturing a fully integrated and encapsulatedmicro...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Inventors: Resnick, Paul J. ; Langlois, Eric Issue Date: 2014-08-26 OSTI Identifier: 1151787 Assignee: Sandia Corporation (Albuquerque, NM) SNL-A Patent Number(s): 8,814,622 ...

  4. DE-SC0004670 Final Technical Report Project Title: Two-Way Integration of WRF and CCSM for Regional Climate Simulations

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    4670 Final Technical Report Project Title: Two-Way Integration of WRF and CCSM for Regional Climate Simulations Investigators: Wuyin Lin, Minghua Zhang, Xiangmin Jiao, Brian Colle, Andrew M. Vogelmann, Marat Khairoutdinov, and L. Ruby Leung Under the support of the DOE award DE-SC0004670, we have successfully developed an integrated climate modeling system by nesting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model within the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the ensuing new generation

  5. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  6. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

    2010-02-21

    The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to

  7. Integrating Environmental Stewardship

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Consent-Based Siting » Integrated Waste Management Integrated Waste Management The Department envisions an integrated waste management system with storage, transportation, and disposal capabilities in order to safely and effectively manage our nation's spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The Department envisions an integrated waste management system with storage, transportation, and disposal capabilities in order to safely and effectively manage our nation's spent nuclear fuel

  8. Grid Integration of Solar Energy Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... load control, storage, generation, forecasting Hierarchical modeling that can ... Will enable more solar deployment should costs decrease o Battery systems need local ...

  9. Major Risk Factors Integrated Facility Disposition Project -...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    ... In addition, it will result in a more appropriate distribution of costs between direct ... Also, the ETR was concerned with the forecasting of potential programs that will utilize ...

  10. GRID INTEGRATION OF SOLAR ENERGY WORKSHOP

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... sensor placement to minimize installation costs while maximizing the usefulness of the ... distributed assets with load and solar forecasting ability to provide optimal allocation ...

  11. Articles about Grid Integration and Transmission | Department...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    ... in Lubbock, Texas, allows for rapid, cost-efficient testing and development of ... consider the characteristics of wind power with its variability and forecasting errors. ...

  12. Integration of Photovoltaics into Building Energy Usage through Advanced Control of Rooftop Unit

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Starke, Michael R; Nutaro, James J; Irminger, Philip; Ollis, Benjamin; Kuruganti, Phani Teja; Fugate, David L

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a computational approach to forecast photovoltaic (PV) power in kW based on a neural network linkage of publicly available cloud cover data and on-site solar irradiance sensor data. We also describe a control approach to utilize rooftop air conditioning units (RTUs) to support renewable integration. The PV forecasting method is validated using data from a rooftop PV panel installed on the Distributed Energy, Communications, and Controls (DECC) laboratory at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The validation occurs in multiple phases to ensure that each component of the approach is the best representation of the actual expected output. The control of the RTU is based on model predictive methods.

  13. Integrated rural energy planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    El Mahgary, Y.; Biswas, A.K.

    1985-01-01

    This book presents papers on integrated community energy systems in developing countries. Topics considered include an integrated rural energy system in Sri Lanka, rural energy systems in Indonesia, integrated rural food-energy systems and technology diffusion in India, bringing energy to the rural sector in the Philippines, the development of a new energy village in China, the Niaga Wolof experimental rural energy center, designing a model rural energy system for Nigeria, the Basaisa village integrated field project, a rural energy project in Tanzania, rural energy development in Columbia, and guidelines for the planning, development and operation of integrated rural energy projects.

  14. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below

  15. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO

  16. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we

  17. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  18. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  19. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  20. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  1. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  2. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  3. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  4. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  5. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  6. Integrating Solar PV in Utility System Operations: Analytical Framework and Arizona Case Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, Jing; Botterud, Audun; Mills, Andrew; Zhou, Zhi; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Mike, Heaney

    2015-06-01

    A systematic framework is proposed to estimate the impact on operating costs due to uncertainty and variability in renewable resources. The framework quantifies the integration costs associated with subhourly variability and uncertainty as well as day-ahead forecasting errors in solar PV (photovoltaics) power. A case study illustrates how changes in system operations may affect these costs for a utility in the southwestern United States (Arizona Public Service Company). We conduct an extensive sensitivity analysis under different assumptions about balancing reserves, system flexibility, fuel prices, and forecasting errors. We find that high solar PV penetrations may lead to operational challenges, particularly during low-load and high solar periods. Increased system flexibility is essential for minimizing integration costs and maintaining reliability. In a set of sensitivity cases where such flexibility is provided, in part, by flexible operations of nuclear power plants, the estimated integration costs vary between $1.0 and $4.4/MWh-PV for a PV penetration level of 17%. The integration costs are primarily due to higher needs for hour-ahead balancing reserves to address the increased sub-hourly variability and uncertainty in the PV resource. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Defense Nuclear Material Stewardship Integrated Inventory Information Management System (IIIMS).

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aas, Christopher A.; Lenhart, James E.; Bray, Olin H.; Witcher, Christina Jenkin

    2004-11-01

    Sandia National Laboratories was tasked with developing the Defense Nuclear Material Stewardship Integrated Inventory Information Management System (IIIMS) with the sponsorship of NA-125.3 and the concurrence of DOE/NNSA field and area offices. The purpose of IIIMS was to modernize nuclear materials management information systems at the enterprise level. Projects over the course of several years attempted to spearhead this modernization. The scope of IIIMS was broken into broad enterprise-oriented materials management and materials forecasting. The IIIMS prototype was developed to allow multiple participating user groups to explore nuclear material requirements and needs in detail. The purpose of material forecasting was to determine nuclear material availability over a 10 to 15 year period in light of the dynamic nature of nuclear materials management. Formal DOE Directives (requirements) were needed to direct IIIMS efforts but were never issued and the project has been halted. When restarted, duplicating or re-engineering the activities from 1999 to 2003 is unnecessary, and in fact future initiatives can build on previous work. IIIMS requirements should be structured to provide high confidence that discrepancies are detected, and classified information is not divulged. Enterprise-wide materials management systems maintained by the military can be used as overall models to base IIIMS implementation concepts upon.

  8. Wind Energy Integration: Slides

    Wind Powering America (EERE)

    information about integrating wind energy into the electricity grid. Wind Energy Integration Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL 25907 Wind energy currently contributes significant power to energy portfolios around the world. *U.S. Department of Energy. (August 2015). 2014 Wind Technologies Market Report. Wind Energy Integration In 2014, Denmark led the way with wind power supplying roughly 39% of the country's electricity demand. Ireland, Portugal, and Spain provided more than 20% of their

  9. Energy Systems Integration | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Watch: NREL Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study Redefines What's Possible for Renewables Text Version Watch: NREL + SolarCity: Maximizing Solar Power on Electrical Grids Text Version Watch: Smart Homes and Buildings Research at the Energy Systems Integration Facility Text Version # # Previous Story Next Story × Skip to main content Toggle Search Search NREL.gov Search National Renewable Energy Laboratory Energy Systems Integration Toggle navigation Menu Research Research Renewable

  10. Integrated assessment of dispersed energy resources deployment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marnay, Chris; Blanco, Raquel; Hamachi, Kristina S.; Kawaan, Cornelia P.; Osborn, Julie G.; Rubio, F. Javier

    2000-06-01

    The goal of this work is to create an integrated framework for forecasting the adoption of distributed energy resources (DER), both by electricity customers and by the various institutions within the industry itself, and for evaluating the effect of this adoption on the power system, particularly on the overall reliability and quality of electrical service to the end user. This effort and follow on contributions are intended to anticipate and explore possible patterns of DER deployment, thereby guiding technical work on microgrids towards the key technical problems. An early example of this process addressed is the question of possible DER adopting customer disconnection. A deployment scenario in which many customers disconnect from their distribution company (disco) entirely leads to a quite different set of technical problems than a scenario in which customers self generate a significant share or all of their on-site electricity requirements and additionally buy and sell energy and ancillary services (AS) locally and/or into wider markets. The exploratory work in this study suggests that the economics under which customers disconnect entirely are unlikely.

  11. Commercial Buildings Integration

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Buildings Integration Images courtesy CREE, True Manufacturing, A.O. Smith, Bernstein Associates, Cambridge Engineering, Alliance Laundry Systems, NREL 2 Strategic Fit within ...

  12. integrated-transportation-models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    support a wider application of integrated transportation models, especially focusing on travel demand and network ... irrevocable worldwide license in said article to ...

  13. Sandia Energy - Grid Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of Sandia's larger portfolio of renewable energy technology programs (Wind, Solar Power, Geothermal, and Energy Systems Analysis). Transmission Grid Integration The goal of...

  14. Distribution Grid Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Energy, SMART Grid, Systems Analysis, Transmission Grid Integration, Wind Energy Sandia Contributes to International Electrotechnical Commission IEC 61400-26 Availability ...

  15. Transmission Grid Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Energy, SMART Grid, Systems Analysis, Transmission Grid Integration, Wind Energy Sandia Contributes to International Electrotechnical Commission IEC 61400-26 Availability ...

  16. Renewable Energy Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Integration - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us ... Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, ...

  17. Grid Integration & Advanced Inverters

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Integration & Advanced Inverters - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home ... Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, ...

  18. Integrated Project Team RM

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    ... conducts interviews, document reviews, walk downs, and observations as necessary. ... 2003 * Letter April 18, 2007, Dae Chung to Jim Rispoli, Integrated Project Team Capability ...

  19. CLASIC DATA INTEGRATION

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array, NLDN NOAA Profiler Network Kessler Farm Field Laboratory ASOS, AWOS, AWSS (FAANWSDOD) ARM & Oklahoma Dataset Integration: Examples Oklahoma ...

  20. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Publications

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Publications Want updates about future transmission grid integration webinars and ... and Transmission Study Flexible Energy Scheduling Tool for Integration of ...

  1. NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Events

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    archive. Printable Version Energy Systems Integration Home Capabilities Research & Development Facilities Working with Us Publications News Events Energy Systems Integration...

  2. Integrating Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Provides an overview of the complete National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) model, and includes brief descriptions of the modules with which the Integrating Module interacts. The emphasis and focus, however, is on the structure and function of the Integrating Module of NEMS.

  3. Systems Integration (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-10-01

    The Systems Integration (SI) subprogram works closely with industry, universities, and the national laboratories to overcome technical barriers to the large-scale deployment of solar technologies. To support these goals, the subprogram invests primarily in four areas: grid integration, technology validation, solar resource assessment, and balance of system development.

  4. Systems Integration (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program

    2011-10-13

    The Systems Integration (SI) subprogram works closely with industry, universities, and the national laboratories to overcome technical barriers to the large-scale deployment of solar technologies. To support these goals, the subprogram invests primarily in four areas: grid integration, technology validation, solar resource assessment, and balance of system development.

  5. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m

  6. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  7. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  8. Integrated assessment briefs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    Integrated assessment can be used to evaluate and clarify resource management policy options and outcomes for decision makers. The defining characteristics of integrated assessment are (1) focus on providing information and analysis that can be understood and used by decision makers rather than for merely advancing understanding and (2) its multidisciplinary approach, using methods, styles of study, and considerations from a broader variety of technical areas than would typically characterize studies produced from a single disciplinary standpoint. Integrated assessment may combine scientific, social, economic, health, and environmental data and models. Integrated assessment requires bridging the gap between science and policy considerations. Because not everything can be valued using a single metric, such as a dollar value, the integrated assessment process also involves evaluating trade-offs among dissimilar attributes. Scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) recognized the importance and value of multidisciplinary approaches to solving environmental problems early on and have pioneered the development of tools and methods for integrated assessment over the past three decades. Major examples of ORNL`s experience in the development of its capabilities for integrated assessment are given.

  9. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  10. GMRES and integral operators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kelley, C.T.; Xue, Z.Q.

    1994-12-31

    Many discretizations of integral equations and compact fixed point problems are collectively compact and strongly convergent in spaces of continuous functions. These properties not only lead to stable and convergent approximations but also can be used in the construction of fast multilevel algorithms. Recently the GMRES algorithm has become a standard coarse mesh solver. The purpose of this paper is to show how the special properties of integral operators and their approximations are reflected in the performance of the GMRES iteration and how these properties can be used to strengthen the norm in which convergence takes place. The authors illustrate these ideas with composite Gauss rules for integral equations on the unit interval.

  11. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    7a. Space Heating by Census Region and Climate Zone, Million U.S. Households, 1993 Space Heating Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Census Region Climate Zone RSE Row Factors Northeast Midwest South West Fewer than 2,000 CDD and -- More than 2,000 CDD and Few- er than 4,000 HDD More than 7,000 HDD 5,500 to 7,000 HDD 4,000 to 5,499 HDD Few- er than 4,000 HDD 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Total ................................................. 96.6 19.5 23.3 33.5 20.4 8.7 26.5

  12. Wellbore Integrity Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carey, James W.; Bachu, Stefan

    2012-06-21

    In this presentation, we review the current state of knowledge on wellbore integrity as developed in the IEA Greenhouse Gas Programme's Wellbore Integrity Network. Wells are one of the primary risks to the successful implementation of CO{sub 2} storage programs. Experimental studies show that wellbore materials react with CO{sub 2} (carbonation of cement and corrosion of steel) but the impact on zonal isolation is unclear. Field studies of wells in CO{sub 2}-bearing fields show that CO{sub 2} does migrate external to casing. However, rates and amounts of CO{sub 2} have not been quantified. At the decade time scale, wellbore integrity is driven by construction quality and geomechanical processes. Over longer time-scales (> 100 years), chemical processes (cement degradation and corrosion) become more important, but competing geomechanical processes may preserve wellbore integrity.

  13. ELECTRONIC INTEGRATING CIRCUIT

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Englemann, R.H.

    1963-08-20

    An electronic integrating circuit using a transistor with a capacitor connected between the emitter and collector through which the capacitor discharges at a rate proportional to the input current at the base is described. Means are provided for biasing the base with an operating bias and for applying a voltage pulse to the capacitor for charging to an initial voltage. A current dividing diode is connected between the base and emitter of the transistor, and signal input terminal means are coupled to the juncture of the capacitor and emitter and to the base of the transistor. At the end of the integration period, the residual voltage on said capacitor is less by an amount proportional to the integral of the input signal. Either continuous or intermittent periods of integration are provided. (AEC)

  14. Systems Integration Competitive Awards

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the SunShot Systems Integration efforts, DOE is funding a range of research and development (R&D) projects to advance balance of system hardware technologies, such as racking systems...

  15. Distribution Grid Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... A lot that needs to be done to enable the transition towards larger shares of renewables in the power mix. The 5th International Conference on Integration of Renewable Energy and ...

  16. PEV Integration with Renewables (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Markel, T.

    2014-06-18

    This presentation discusses current research at NREL on integrating plug-in electric vehicles with the grid and using renewable energy to charge the grid. The Electric Vehicle Grid Integration (EVGI) and Integrated Network Testbed for Energy Grid Research and Technology Experimentation (INTEGRATE) are addressing the opportunities and technical requirements for vehicle grid integration that will increase marketability and lead to greater petroleum reduction.

  17. IDC Integrated Master Plan.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clifford, David J.; Harris, James M.

    2014-12-01

    This is the IDC Re-Engineering Phase 2 project Integrated Master Plan (IMP). The IMP presents the major accomplishments planned over time to re-engineer the IDC system. The IMP and the associate Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) are used for planning, scheduling, executing, and tracking the project technical work efforts. REVISIONS Version Date Author/Team Revision Description Authorized by V1.0 12/2014 IDC Re- engineering Project Team Initial delivery M. Harris

  18. Integrated and Engineered Systems

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Integrated and Engineered Systems Integrated and Engineered Systems National security depends on science and technology. The United States relies on Los Alamos National Laboratory for the best of both. No place on Earth pursues a broader array of world-class scientific endeavors. Contact thumbnail of Business Development Executive Miranda Intrator Business Development Executive Richard P. Feynmnan Center for Innovation (505) 665-8315 Email Engineers at Los Alamos create, design, and build the

  19. Center for Integrated Nanotechnologies

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ADEPS » MPA » MPA-CINT Center for Integrated Nanotechnologies Nanomaterials integration is one of many approaches we take in addressing a range of challenges, from human health to national defense. Contact Us CINT Co-Director Quanxi Jia Email Deputy Group Leader (acting) Alex Lacerda Email Group Office (505) 667-9243 First in-situ images of void collapse in explosives Los Alamos researchers and collaborators demonstrated a crucial diagnostic for studying how voids affect explosives under shock

  20. Integrating Program Component Executables

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Integrating Program Component Executables on Distributed Memory Architectures via MPH Chris Ding and Yun He Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA chqding@lbl.gov, yhe@lbl.gov Abstract A growing trend in developing large and complex ap- plications on today's Teraflop computers is to integrate stand-alone and/or semi-independent program components into a comprehensive simulation package. One example is the climate

  1. Integrative Genomics Building

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Integrative Genomics Building Community Environmental Documents Tours Community Programs Friends of Berkeley Lab ⇒ Navigate Section Community Environmental Documents Tours Community Programs Friends of Berkeley Lab Project Description The Integrative Genomics Building (IGB) is proposed to be an approximately 77,000 gsf, four-story research and office building constructed in the former Bevatron area - a fully developed site in the geographic interior of the Berkeley Lab. The IGB is intended to

  2. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  3. DIRECTIONS AND TIPS FOR USING INTEGRITY Accessing Integrity:

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DIRECTIONS AND TIPS FOR USING INTEGRITY Accessing Integrity: The website address for Integrity is www.integrity.gov. When you get to the website, click on the yellow box labeled "Login to Integrity." Integrity is connected to the OMB MAX Central Authentication Service. Employees who have previously used OMB MAX should use their MAX user ID and password. Do not use the CIC or PIV login option. This is not enabled for DOE Integrity filers. If you used Integrity last year, you have an OMB

  4. Procurement Integrity | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integrity Procurement Integrity Procurement Integrity (148.69 KB) More Documents & Publications POLICY FLASH 2016-04 AcqGuide3pt1.doc&#0; PI Brief 6 15 07 final2&#0;

  5. Developing an industrial end-use forecast: A case study at the Los Angeles department of water and power

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mureau, T.H.; Francis, D.M.

    1995-05-01

    The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) uses INFORM 1.0 to forecast industrial sector energy. INFORM 1.0 provides an end-use framework that can be used to forecast electricity, natural gas or other fuels consumption. Included with INFORM 1.0 is a default date set including the input data and equations necessary to solve each model. LADWP has substituted service area specific data for the default data wherever possible. This paper briefly describes the steps LADWP follows in developing those inputs and application in INFORM 1.0.

  6. Systems Integration | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The focus of systems integration is to understand the complex interactions among program areas, components, and the tradeoffs between them. Systems Integration ensures all ...

  7. Integrity Automotive | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Product: Joint venture between Kentucky businessman Randal Waldman of Integrity Manufacturing and California-based electric car maker Zap. References: Integrity Automotive1...

  8. Integrated electrical connector (Patent) | DOEPatents

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Integrated electrical connector Title: Integrated electrical connector An electrical ... The opening is also smaller than the diameter of an electrically conductive contact pin. ...

  9. NREL: Electricity Integration Research - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Electricity Integration Research Home Distributed Grid Integration Transmission Grid ... Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for ...

  10. NREL: Electricity Integration Research - Facilities

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Facilities NREL's electricity integration research is conducted in state-of-the-art ... reliable integration of renewable electricity, fuel production, storage, and building ...

  11. Washington: Integrated Transportation Programs & Coordinated...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integrated Transportation Programs & Coordinated Regional Planning Washington: Integrated Transportation Programs & Coordinated Regional Planning November 6, 2013 - 5:42pm Addthis ...

  12. Integrated Simulation Development and Decision Support Tool-Set for Utility Market and Distributed Solar Power Generation Electricore, Inc.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Daye, Tony

    2013-09-30

    This project will enable utilities to develop long-term strategic plans that integrate high levels of renewable energy generation, and to better plan power system operations under high renewable penetration. The program developed forecast data streams for decision support and effective integration of centralized and distributed solar power generation in utility operations. This toolset focused on real time simulation of distributed power generation within utility grids with the emphasis on potential applications in day ahead (market) and real time (reliability) utility operations. The project team developed and demonstrated methodologies for quantifying the impact of distributed solar generation on core utility operations, identified protocols for internal data communication requirements, and worked with utility personnel to adapt the new distributed generation (DG) forecasts seamlessly within existing Load and Generation procedures through a sophisticated DMS. This project supported the objectives of the SunShot Initiative and SUNRISE by enabling core utility operations to enhance their simulation capability to analyze and prepare for the impacts of high penetrations of solar on the power grid. The impact of high penetration solar PV on utility operations is not only limited to control centers, but across many core operations. Benefits of an enhanced DMS using state-of-the-art solar forecast data were demonstrated within this project and have had an immediate direct operational cost savings for Energy Marketing for Day Ahead generation commitments, Real Time Operations, Load Forecasting (at an aggregate system level for Day Ahead), Demand Response, Long term Planning (asset management), Distribution Operations, and core ancillary services as required for balancing and reliability. This provided power system operators with the necessary tools and processes to operate the grid in a reliable manner under high renewable penetration.

  13. Systems Integration Competitive Awards | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Play Photovoltaics 2012 25M Solar Forecasting 2012 11M BOS-X 2011 56M SEGIS-AC 2011 30M For more information on available funding, visit the financial opportunities page. COST ...

  14. Partially integrated exhaust manifold

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hayman, Alan W; Baker, Rodney E

    2015-01-20

    A partially integrated manifold assembly is disclosed which improves performance, reduces cost and provides efficient packaging of engine components. The partially integrated manifold assembly includes a first leg extending from a first port and terminating at a mounting flange for an exhaust gas control valve. Multiple additional legs (depending on the total number of cylinders) are integrally formed with the cylinder head assembly and extend from the ports of the associated cylinder and terminate at an exit port flange. These additional legs are longer than the first leg such that the exit port flange is spaced apart from the mounting flange. This configuration provides increased packaging space adjacent the first leg for any valving that may be required to control the direction and destination of exhaust flow in recirculation to an EGR valve or downstream to a catalytic converter.

  15. Integrated heterodyne terahertz transceiver

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wanke, Michael C.; Lee, Mark; Nordquist, Christopher D.; Cich, Michael J.

    2012-09-25

    A heterodyne terahertz transceiver comprises a quantum cascade laser that is integrated on-chip with a Schottky diode mixer. A terahertz signal can be received by an antenna connected to the mixer, an end facet or sidewall of the laser, or through a separate active section that can amplify the incident signal. The quantum cascade laser couples terahertz local oscillator power to the Schottky diode to mix with the received terahertz signal to provide an intermediate frequency output signal. The fully integrated transceiver optimizes power efficiency, sensitivity, compactness, and reliability. The transceiver can be used in compact, fieldable systems covering a wide variety of deployable applications not possible with existing technology.

  16. Bayesian Integrated Microbial Forensics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jarman, Kristin H.; Kreuzer-Martin, Helen W.; Wunschel, David S.; Valentine, Nancy B.; Cliff, John B.; Petersen, Catherine E.; Colburn, Heather A.; Wahl, Karen L.

    2008-06-01

    In the aftermath of the 2001 anthrax letters, researchers have been exploring ways to predict the production environment of unknown source microorganisms. Different mass spectral techniques are being developed to characterize components of a microbes culture medium including water, carbon and nitrogen sources, metal ions added, and the presence of agar. Individually, each technique has the potential to identify one or two ingredients in a culture medium recipe. However, by integrating data from multiple mass spectral techniques, a more complete characterization is possible. We present a Bayesian statistical approach to integrated microbial forensics and illustrate its application on spores grown in different culture media.

  17. Integrated heterodyne terahertz transceiver

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lee, Mark; Wanke, Michael C.

    2009-06-23

    A heterodyne terahertz transceiver comprises a quantum cascade laser that is integrated on-chip with a Schottky diode mixer. An antenna connected to the Schottky diode receives a terahertz signal. The quantum cascade laser couples terahertz local oscillator power to the Schottky diode to mix with the received terahertz signal to provide an intermediate frequency output signal. The fully integrated transceiver optimizes power efficiency, sensitivity, compactness, and reliability. The transceiver can be used in compact, fieldable systems covering a wide variety of deployable applications not possible with existing technology.

  18. Smart Grid Integration Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Troxell, Wade

    2011-12-22

    The initial federal funding for the Colorado State University Smart Grid Integration Laboratory is through a Congressionally Directed Project (CDP), DE-OE0000070 Smart Grid Integration Laboratory. The original program requested in three one-year increments for staff acquisition, curriculum development, and instrumentation all which will benefit the Laboratory. This report focuses on the initial phase of staff acquisition which was directed and administered by DOE NETL/ West Virginia under Project Officer Tom George. Using this CDP funding, we have developed the leadership and intellectual capacity for the SGIC. This was accomplished by investing (hiring) a core team of Smart Grid Systems engineering faculty focused on education, research, and innovation of a secure and smart grid infrastructure. The Smart Grid Integration Laboratory will be housed with the separately funded Integrid Laboratory as part of CSU's overall Smart Grid Integration Center (SGIC). The period of performance of this grant was 10/1/2009 to 9/30/2011 which included one no cost extension due to time delays in faculty hiring. The Smart Grid Integration Laboratory's focus is to build foundations to help graduate and undergraduates acquire systems engineering knowledge; conduct innovative research; and team externally with grid smart organizations. Using the results of the separately funded Smart Grid Workforce Education Workshop (May 2009) sponsored by the City of Fort Collins, Northern Colorado Clean Energy Cluster, Colorado State University Continuing Education, Spirae, and Siemens has been used to guide the hiring of faculty, program curriculum and education plan. This project develops faculty leaders with the intellectual capacity to inspire its students to become leaders that substantially contribute to the development and maintenance of Smart Grid infrastructure through topics such as: (1) Distributed energy systems modeling and control; (2) Energy and power conversion; (3) Simulation of

  19. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Integration Datasets The Wind Integration Datasets provide energy professionals with a ... Solar Power Data for Integration Studies The Solar Power Data for Integration ...

  20. Machine Learning Based Multi-Physical-Model Blending for Enhancing Renewable Energy Forecast -- Improvement via Situation Dependent Error Correction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lu, Siyuan; Hwang, Youngdeok; Khabibrakhmanov, Ildar; Marianno, Fernando J.; Shao, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Hamann, Hendrik F.

    2015-07-15

    With increasing penetration of solar and wind energy to the total energy supply mix, the pressing need for accurate energy forecasting has become well-recognized. Here we report the development of a machine-learning based model blending approach for statistically combining multiple meteorological models for improving the accuracy of solar/wind power forecast. Importantly, we demonstrate that in addition to parameters to be predicted (such as solar irradiance and power), including additional atmospheric state parameters which collectively define weather situations as machine learning input provides further enhanced accuracy for the blended result. Functional analysis of variance shows that the error of individual model has substantial dependence on the weather situation. The machine-learning approach effectively reduces such situation dependent error thus produces more accurate results compared to conventional multi-model ensemble approaches based on simplistic equally or unequally weighted model averaging. Validation over an extended period of time results show over 30% improvement in solar irradiance/power forecast accuracy compared to forecasts based on the best individual model.

  1. Bioluminescent bioreporter integrated circuit

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Simpson, Michael L.; Sayler, Gary S.; Paulus, Michael J.

    2000-01-01

    Disclosed are monolithic bioelectronic devices comprising a bioreporter and an OASIC. These bioluminescent bioreporter integrated circuit are useful in detecting substances such as pollutants, explosives, and heavy-metals residing in inhospitable areas such as groundwater, industrial process vessels, and battlefields. Also disclosed are methods and apparatus for environmental pollutant detection, oil exploration, drug discovery, industrial process control, and hazardous chemical monitoring.

  2. Integrated Safety Management Policy

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-04-25

    The policy establishes DOE's expectation for safety, including integrated safety management that will enable the Department’s mission goals to be accomplished efficiently while ensuring safe operations at all departmental facilities and activities. Supersedes DOE P 450.4, DOE P 411.1, DOE P 441.1, DOE P 450.2A, and DOE P 450.7

  3. Biochemical Platform Processing Integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2006-06-01

    The objective of this project is to facilitate deployment of enzyme-based biomass conversion technology. The immediate goal is to explore integration issues that impact process performance and to demonstrate improved performance of the lower-cost enzymes being developed by Genencor and Novozymes.

  4. Integrated Management Requirements mapping

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Holmes, J.T.; Andrews, N.S.

    1992-06-01

    This document contains five appendices documenting how Sandia implemented the DOE Conduct of Operations (5480.19) and DOE Quality Assurance (5700.6C) orders. It provides a mapping of the Sandia integrated requirements to the specific requirements of each Order and a mapping to Sandia's approved program for implementing the Conduct of Operations Order.

  5. Integrated Management Requirements mapping

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Holmes, J.T.; Andrews, N.S.

    1992-06-01

    This document contains five appendices documenting how Sandia implemented the DOE Conduct of Operations (5480.19) and DOE Quality Assurance (5700.6C) orders. It provides a mapping of the Sandia integrated requirements to the specific requirements of each Order and a mapping to Sandia`s approved program for implementing the Conduct of Operations Order.

  6. Integrated Landscape Management

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    March 23, 2015 Ian Bonner Idaho National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information Sustainability Technology Area 4.2.1.20 Integrated Landscape Management 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office PROJECT GOAL * OBJECTIVE - Develop model based innovative landscape design methods that estimate increased biomass availability, improve soil, water, and air quality, and reduce grower losses through subfield management decisions.

  7. Integrating Electricity Subsector

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology 3002001181 | DEC 2013 Program Leads Jason D. Christopher Technical Lead, Cyber Security Capabilities & Risk Management Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) Annabelle Lee Senior Technical Executive, Cyber Security Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) For more information on the DOE's cyber security risk management programs, please contact

  8. Integrated Safety Management

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-04-25

    The order ensures that DOE/NNSA, systematically integrates safety into management and work practices at all levels, so that missions are accomplished efficiently while protecting the workers, the public, and the environment. Supersedes DOE M 450.4-1 and DOE M 411.1-1C

  9. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  10. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  11. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-09-22

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the 'Microbase' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  12. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the “Mergedsounding” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  13. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB Veteran-Owned SB Service Disabled Vet. SB FY 2009 Dollars Goal (projected) $183,949,920 $82,690,000 $4,550,000 $8,829,596 $3,370,000 $5,025,000 $460,000 FY 2009 Dollars Accomplished $143,846,731 $68,174,398 $9,247,214 $11,333,905 $4,979,858 $6,713,791 $1,612,136 FY 2009 % Goal 45.0% 2.5% 4.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.25% FY

  14. Electric-utility DSM programs: 1990 data and forecasts to 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hirst, E.

    1992-06-01

    In April 1992, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data on 1989 and 1990 electric-utility demand-site management (DMS) programs. These data represent a census of US utility DSM programs, with reports of utility expenditures, energy savings, and load reductions caused by these programs. In addition, EIA published utility estimates of the costs and effects of these programs from 1991 to 2000. These data provide the first comprehensive picture of what utilities are spending and accomplishing by utility, state, and region. This report presents, summarizes, and interprets the 1990 data and the utility forecasts of their DSM-program expenditures and impacts to the year 2000. Only utilities with annual sales greater than 120 GWh were required to report data on their DSM programs to EIA. Of the 1194 such utilities, 363 reported having a DSM program that year. These 363 electric utilities spent $1.2 billion on their DSM programs in 1990, up from $0.9 billion in 1989. Estimates of energy savings (17,100 GWh in 1990 and 14,800 GWh in 1989) and potential reductions in peak demand (24,400 MW in 1990 and about 19,400 MW in 1989) also showed substantial increases. Overall, utility DSM expenditures accounted for 0.7% of total US electric revenues, while the reductions in energy and demand accounted for 0.6% and 4.9% of their respective 1990 national totals. The investor-owned utilities accounted for 70 to 90% of the totals for DSM costs, energy savings, and demand reductions. The public utilities reported larger percentage reductions in peak demand and energy smaller percentage DSM expenditures. These averages hide tremendous variations across utilities. Utility forecasts of DSM expenditures and effects show substantial growth in both absolute and relative terms.

  15. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J. -J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Garcia-Pando, C. Perez; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; et al

    2016-04-21

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distributionmore » was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. In this paper, our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.« less

  16. Technology solutions for wind integration in ERCOT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2015-01-03

    Texas has for more than a decade led all other states in the U.S. with the most wind generation capacity on the U.S. electric grid. The State recognized the value that wind energy could provide, and committed early on to build out the transmission system necessary to move power from the windy regions in West Texas to the major population centers across the state. It also signaled support for renewables on the grid by adopting an aggressive renewable portfolio standard (RPS). The joining of these conditions with favorable Federal tax credits has driven the rapid growth in Texas wind capacity since its small beginning in 2000. In addition to the major transmission grid upgrades, there have been a number of technology and policy improvements that have kept the grid reliable while adding more and more intermittent wind generation. Technology advancements such as better wind forecasting and deployment of a nodal market system have improved the grid efficiency of wind. Successful large scale wind integration into the electric grid, however, continues to pose challenges. The continuing rapid growth in wind energy calls for a number of technology additions that will be needed to reliably accommodate an expected 65% increase in future wind resources. The Center for the Commercialization of Electric Technologies (CCET) recognized this technology challenge in 2009 when it submitted an application for funding of a regional demonstration project under the Recovery Act program administered by the U.S. Department of Energy1. Under that program the administration announced the largest energy grid modernization investment in U.S. history, making available some $3.4 billion in grants to fund development of a broad range of technologies for a more efficient and reliable electric system, including the growth of renewable energy sources like wind and solar. At that time, Texas was (and still is) the nation’s leader in the integration of wind into the grid, and was investing heavily

  17. TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS FOR WIND INTEGRATION IN ERCOT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2015-01-03

    Texas has for more than a decade led all other states in the U.S. with the most wind generation capacity on the U.S. electric grid. The State recognized the value that wind energy could provide, and committed early on to build out the transmission system necessary to move power from the windy regions in West Texas to the major population centers across the state. It also signaled support for renewables on the grid by adopting an aggressive renewable portfolio standard (RPS). The joining of these conditions with favorable Federal tax credits has driven the rapid growth in Texas wind capacity since its small beginning in 2000. In addition to the major transmission grid upgrades, there have been a number of technology and policy improvements that have kept the grid reliable while adding more and more intermittent wind generation. Technology advancements such as better wind forecasting and deployment of a nodal market system have improved the grid efficiency of wind. Successful large scale wind integration into the electric grid, however, continues to pose challenges. The continuing rapid growth in wind energy calls for a number of technology additions that will be needed to reliably accommodate an expected 65% increase in future wind resources. The Center for the Commercialization of Electric Technologies (CCET) recognized this technology challenge in 2009 when it submitted an application for funding of a regional demonstration project under the Recovery Act program administered by the U.S. Department of Energy1. Under that program the administration announced the largest energy grid modernization investment in U.S. history, making available some $3.4 billion in grants to fund development of a broad range of technologies for a more efficient and reliable electric system, including the growth of renewable energy sources like wind and solar. At that time, Texas was (and still is) the nation’s leader in the integration of wind into the grid, and was investing heavily

  18. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  19. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  20. Paul Loach | Photosynthetic Antenna Research Center

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    he is working to determine how LH1, the reaction center (RC) and the bc1 complex interact in the intact membrane. Professor of Biochemistry, Molecular Biology and Cell Biology Bio...