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1

Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030  

SciTech Connect

The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

Eisenberg, Joel Fred [ORNL

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling A NOAA of the NWS's forecast products, even its regional forecast products, are constrained by the limitations of NOAA's global forecast model. Unfortunately, our global forecasts are less accurate than those from

Hamill, Tom

3

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill? Greg Roff,1 forecast skill at high Southern latitudes is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model configurations that differ only in vertical resolution above 100 hPa. An ensemble of twelve 30day forecasts

4

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old ensemble forecast perturbations with more recent observations for the purpose of inexpensively increasing ensemble size. The impact of the transformations are propagated ...

Andrew R. Lawrence; James A. Hansen

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

EIA forecasts increased oil demand, need for additional supply ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

World oil demand is forecast to increase by 1.7 million barrels per day (bbl/d) ... Cooling demand in the Middle East is expected to rise to record levels this summer.

6

A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very helpful when time and data resources are limited. The methodology consists of five tasks: 1) select a section of the reservoir with the most detailed geologic, reservoir, and production data, 2) perform material balance analysis for the selected section to determine 001? and the history of total expansion, voidage, and injectage, 3) establish an average 5-spot pattern within the selected section, 4) develop a black oil numerical simulation model for a quarter of the 5-spot pattern and simulate the primary and waterflood recovery processes, and 5) forecast carbon dioxide performance using Shell's Scoping model, Texaco's "PROPHET" model, and VIP miscible simulator. One of the major limitations of the methodology is that details of individual well performance and reservoir pressure and fluid saturation distributions in the project area are not available. Therefore, the forecast is limited to the average pattern and to the reservoir as a whole. Results of the Dollarhide Clearfork simulation study show that 9.7 % to 14.1 % of OOIP may be recovered by C02 flood in the selected section. It would require WAG injection cycles with a total fluid injection of 0.831 HCPV.

Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve5 extended-range forecast skill?6  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 1 2 3 4 Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve5 extended-range forecast skill?6 7 The effect of stratospheric resolution on extended-range forecast skill at high latitudes2 in the Southern Hemisphere is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model3 configurations that differ only

Birner, Thomas

8

Does Increased Horizontal Resolution Improve Hurricane Wind Forecasts?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The representation of tropical cyclone track, intensity, and structure in a set of 69 parallel forecasts performed at each of two horizontal grid increments with the Advanced Research Hurricane (AHW) component of the Weather and Research and ...

Christopher Davis; Wei Wang; Jimy Dudhia; Ryan Torn

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Does Increasing Horizontal Resolution Produce More Skillful Forecasts?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper examines the impacts of increasing horizontal resolution on the performance of mesoscale numerical weather prediction models. A review of previous studies suggests that decreasing grid spacing to approximately 10 km orless generally ...

Clifford F. Mass; David Ovens; Ken Westrick; Brian A. Colle

2002-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

RDI forecasts oil price increase impact on electric consumers  

SciTech Connect

According to a publication by Resource Data International, Inc. (RDI), Boulder, Colorado, the current oil price increases will effect electricity consumers nationwide. While the direct use of fuel oil and natural gas as boiler fuels is expected to decline with rising prices, the cost of alternative energy sources including coal, nuclear, and hydro are also expected to rise, RDI said.

Not Available

1990-10-25T23:59:59.000Z

11

Using Observed Spatial Correlation Structures to Increase the Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Model deficiencies limit a subseasonal or seasonal forecast system’s ability to produce accurate predictions. In this paper, an approach for transforming the output of a forecast system into a revised forecast is presented; it is designed to ...

Randal D. Koster; Thomas L. Bell; Rolf H. Reichle; Max J. Suarez; Siegfried D. Schubert

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

Short-Term Energy Carbon Dioxide Emissions Forecasts August 2009  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Supplement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook. Short-term projections for U.S. carbon dioxide emissions of the three fossil fuels: coal, natural gas, and petroleum.

Information Center

2009-08-11T23:59:59.000Z

13

ORNL DAAC, Effects of Increased Carbon Dioxide, Dec. 11, 2002  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Increased Carbon Dioxide on Vegetation The ORNL DAAC announces the release of a data set entitled "Effects of Elevated Carbon Dioxide on Litter Chemistry and Decomposition." The...

14

Increasing access to the carbon market ENERGY, CLIMATE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· workshops; Knowledge and information management;· Research, policy analysis, and market surveil-· lanceIncreasing access to the carbon market ENERGY, CLIMATE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 2008 #12;2 World is growing in parallel. With a dynamic carbon market under constant development, the Energy and Carbon Fi

15

Method to Increase Stabilization Rate of Lignin for Carbon ...  

Method to Increase Stabilization Rate of Lignin for Carbon Fiber Production Note: The technology described above is an early stage opportunity.

16

The Predictive Uncertainty of Land Surface Fluxes in Response to Increasing Ambient Carbon Dioxide  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The exchange of water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2) between the land surface and the atmosphere plays an important role in numerical weather forecasting and climate change prediction using general circulation models. In this study, a typical ...

Karsten Schulz; Andrew Jarvis; Keith Beven; Henrik Soegaard

2001-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

Worldwide Carbon Capture and Storage Projects on the Increase | Department  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Worldwide Carbon Capture and Storage Projects on the Increase Worldwide Carbon Capture and Storage Projects on the Increase Worldwide Carbon Capture and Storage Projects on the Increase November 13, 2009 - 12:00pm Addthis Washington, D.C. -- Worldwide efforts to fund and establish carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects have accelerated, according to a new Department of Energy (DOE) online database, indicating ongoing positive momentum toward achieving the G-8 goal for launching 20 CCS demonstrations by 2010. The database, a project of the Office of Fossil Energy's (FE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), reveals 192 proposed and active CCS projects worldwide. The projects are located in 20 countries across five continents. The 192 projects globally include 38 capture, 46 storage, and 108 for capture and storage. While most of the projects are still in the

18

The Impact of Increased Use of Hydrogen on Petroleum Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

SR/OIAF-CNEAF/2008-04 SR/OIAF-CNEAF/2008-04 The Impact of Increased Use of Hydrogen on Petroleum Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions September 2008 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. Unless referenced otherwise, the information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. Service Reports are prepared by the Energy Information Administration upon special

19

Linearity of Climate Response to Increases in Black Carbon Aerosols  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The impact of absorbing aerosols on global climate are not completely understood. Here, we present results of idealized experiments conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) coupled to a slab ocean model (CAM4-SOM) to simulate the climate response to increases in tropospheric black carbon aerosols (BC) by direct and semi-direct effects. CAM4-SOM was forced with 0, 1x, 2x, 5x and 10x an estimate of the present day concentration of BC while maintaining their estimated present day global spatial and vertical distribution. The top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing of BC in these experiments is positive (warming) and increases linearly as the BC burden increases. The total semi-direct effect for the 1x experiment is positive but becomes increasingly negative for higher BC concentrations. The global average surface temperature response is found to be a linear function of the TOA radiative forcing. The climate sensitivity to BC from these experiments is estimated to be 0.42 K $\\textnormal W^{-1} m^{2}$ when the semi-direct effects are accounted for and 0.22 K $\\textnormal W^{-1} m^{2}$ with only the direct effects considered. Global average precipitation decreases linearly as BC increases, with a precipitation sensitivity to atmospheric absorption of 0.4 $\\%$ $\\textnormal W^{-1} \\textnormal m^{2}$ . The hemispheric asymmetry of BC also causes an increase in southward cross-equatorial heat transport and a resulting northward shift of the inter-tropical convergence zone in the simulations at a rate of 4$^{\\circ}$N $\\textnormal PW^{-1}$. Global average mid- and high-level clouds decrease, whereas the low-level clouds increase linearly with BC. The increase in marine stratocumulus cloud fraction over the south tropical Atlantic is caused by increased BC-induced diabatic heating of the free troposphere.

Evans, Katherine J [ORNL; Hack, James J [ORNL; Truesdale, John [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Carbon Cycle Uncertainty Increases Climate Change Risks and Mitigation Challenges PAUL A. T. HIGGINS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Carbon Cycle Uncertainty Increases Climate Change Risks and Mitigation Challenges PAUL A. T about the carbon cycle: 1) that elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations will enhance terrestrial carbon that carbon cycle uncertainty is considerably larger than currently recognized and that plausible carbon cycle

Kammen, Daniel M.

22

Carbon Cycle Uncertainty Increases Climate Change Risks and Mitigation Challenges  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Projections of greenhouse gas concentrations over the twenty-first century generally rely on two optimistic, but questionable, assumptions about the carbon cycle: 1) that elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations will enhance terrestrial carbon ...

Paul A. T. Higgins; John Harte

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

24

Carbon activation process for increased surface accessibility in electrochemical capacitors  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A process for making carbon film or powder suitable for double capacitor electrodes having a capacitance of up to about 300 F/cm.sup.3 is disclosed. This is accomplished by treating in aqueous nitric acid for a period of about 5 to 15 minutes thin carbon films obtained by carbonizing carbon-containing polymeric material having a high degree of molecular directionality, such as polyimide film, then heating the treated carbon film in a non-oxidizing atmosphere at a non-graphitizing temperature of at least 350.degree. C. for about 20 minutes, and repeating alternately the nitric acid step and the heating step from 7 to 10 times. Capacitors made with this carbon may find uses ranging from electronic devices to electric vehicle applications.

Doughty, Daniel H. (Albuquerque, NM); Eisenmann, Erhard T. (Belpre, OH)

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Reduced carbon intensity of corn ethanol may increase its ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

tags: biofuels California ethanol ILUC (indirect land use change) LCFS (low carbon fuel standard) liquid fuels policy renewable states. Email Updates.

26

An Integrated Functional Genomics Consortium to Increase Carbon Sequestration in Poplars: Optimizing Aboveground Carbon Gain  

SciTech Connect

This project used gene expression patterns from two forest Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments (Aspen FACE in northern Wisconsin and POPFACE in Italy) to examine ways to increase the aboveground carbon sequestration potential of poplars (Populus). The aim was to use patterns of global gene expression to identify candidate genes for increased carbon sequestration. Gene expression studies were linked to physiological measurements in order to elucidate bottlenecks in carbon acquisition in trees grown in elevated CO2 conditions. Delayed senescence allowing additional carbon uptake late in the growing season, was also examined, and expression of target genes was tested in elite P. deltoides x P. trichocarpa hybrids. In Populus euramericana, gene expression was sensitive to elevated CO2, but the response depended on the developmental age of the leaves. Most differentially expressed genes were upregulated in elevated CO2 in young leaves, while most were downregulated in elevated CO2 in semi-mature leaves. In P. deltoides x P. trichocarpa hybrids, leaf development and leaf quality traits, including leaf area, leaf shape, epidermal cell area, stomatal number, specific leaf area, and canopy senescence were sensitive to elevated CO2. Significant increases under elevated CO2 occurred for both above- and belowground growth in the F-2 generation. Three areas of the genome played a role in determining aboveground growth response to elevated CO2, with three additional areas of the genome important in determining belowground growth responses to elevated CO2. In Populus tremuloides, CO2-responsive genes in leaves were found to differ between two aspen clones that showed different growth responses, despite similarity in many physiological parameters (photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and leaf area index). The CO2-responsive clone shunted C into pathways associated with active defense/response to stress, carbohydrate/starch biosynthesis and subsequent growth. The CO2-unresponsive clone partitioned C into pathways associated with passive defense and cell wall thickening. These results indicate that there is significant variation in gene expression patterns between different tree genotypes. Consequently, future efforts to improve productivity or other advantageous traits for carbon sequestration should include an examination of genetic variability in CO2 responsiveness.

Karnosky, David F (deceased); Podila, G Krishna; Burton, Andrew J (for DF Karnosky)

2009-02-17T23:59:59.000Z

27

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...

28

Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts—a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...

Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher

1987-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Forecast Combinations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models’ forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains

Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Forecasting overview  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the “naïve method”), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

Large-Scale Changes of Soil Wetness Induced by an Increase in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The change in soil wetness in response to an increase of atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is investigated by two versions of a climate model which consists of a general circulation model of the atmosphere and a static mixed layer ...

S. Manabe; R. T. Wetherald

1987-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Contrasting Regional Responses to Increasing Leaf-Level Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide over Australia  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, simulations were conducted to characterize the regional climate changes that result from the response of stomates to increases in leaf-level carbon dioxide (CO2) under differing conditions of ...

Faye T. Cruz; Andrew J. Pitman; John L. McGregor; Jason P. Evans

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

DOE Seeks Proposals to Increase Investment in Industrial Carbon Capture and  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

DOE Seeks Proposals to Increase Investment in Industrial Carbon DOE Seeks Proposals to Increase Investment in Industrial Carbon Capture and Sequestration Projects DOE Seeks Proposals to Increase Investment in Industrial Carbon Capture and Sequestration Projects June 15, 2009 - 1:00pm Addthis Washington, DC - The U.S. Department of Energy has issued a Funding Opportunity Announcement soliciting projects to capture and sequester carbon dioxide from industrial sources and to put CO2 to beneficial use. The successful development of advanced technologies and innovative concepts to prevent CO2 from being emitted into the atmosphere is a key component of national efforts to mitigate climate change. DOE anticipates making multiple awards under this FOA. The projects will be cost-shared, with the award recipients providing at least 20 percent of the

34

Forecasting Techniques The Use of Hourly Model-Generated Soundings to Forecast Mesoscale Phenomena. Part I: Initial Assessment in Forecasting Warm-Season Phenomena  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since late 1995, NCEP has made available to forecasters hourly model guidance at selected sites in the form of vertical profiles of various forecast fields. These profiles provide forecasters with increased temporal resolution and greater ...

Robert E. Hart; Gregory S. Forbes; Richard H. Grumm

1998-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions Using Province Level Information  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Garin-Mu˜ oz, T. : 2002, Forecasting china’s carbon dioxideF. X. : 2001, Elements of Forecasting, South-Western College2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country

Auffhammer, Maximilian; Carson, Richard T.

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...

Ramón de Elía; René Laprise

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...

Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

39

Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest Inventory.brewer@forestry.gsi.gov.uk Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume

42

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

43

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast

Greenslade, Diana

44

Price and Load Forecasting in Volatile Energy Markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

With daily news stories about wildly fluctuating electricity prices and soaring natural gas prices, forecasters' responsibilities are expanding, visibility is increasing, and pressure exists to produce more frequent forecasts and more kinds of forecasts. The proceedings of EPRI's 13th Forecasting Symposium, held November 13-15 in Nashville, Tennessee, address current forecasting issues and developments, as well as explain the role that forecasters have played in recent events in energy markets.

2001-12-05T23:59:59.000Z

45

Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...

W. Y. Chen

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

46

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

47

FROM ANALYSTS ' EARNINGS FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We examine the accuracy and bias of intrinsic equity prices estimated from three accounting-based valuation models using analyst’s earnings forecasts over a four-year horizon. The models are: (a) the earnings capitalization model, (b) the residual income model without a terminal value, and (c) the residual income model with a terminal value that assumes residual income will grow beyond the horizon at a constant rate determined from the expected residual income growth rate over the forecast horizon. Our analysis is based on valuation errors that are calculated by comparing estimated prices to actual prices. We contribute to the literature by examining whether: (i) the analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book value and dividends, (ii) the use of firm specific growth rates in terminal value calculations results in more unbiased and accurate valuations than the use of constant growth rates, and (iii) different models perform better under different ex-ante conditions. We find that analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book values and dividends. Each of the models that we used has valuation errors that decline monotonically as the horizon increases implying that earnings forecasts at each horizon convey new value relevant information. We cannot find a clear advantage to using firm specific growth rates instead of a constant rate of 4 % across all sample

Theodore Sougiannis; Takashi Yaekura

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

Fertilization Increases Below-Ground Carbon Sequestration of Loblolly Pine Plantations  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

FERTILIZATION INCREASES BELOW-GROUND FERTILIZATION INCREASES BELOW-GROUND CARBON SEQUESTRATION OF LOBLOLLY PINE PLANTATIONS K.H. Johnsen 1,2 , J.R. Butnor 1 , C. Maier 1 , R. Oren 3 , R. Pangle 4 , L. Samuelson 5 , J. Seiler 4 , S.E. McKeand 6 , and H.L Allen 6 1 Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 3041 Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA 2 email: kjohnsen@fs.fed.us, ph: 919-549-4012, fax: 919-549-4047 3 School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 4 Dept. of Forestry, Virginia Tech., Blacksburg, VA 24061 5 School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849 6 College of Natural Resources, NC State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 Abstract The extent of fertilization of southern pine forests is increasing rapidly; industrial

50

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons

51

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

52

The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this “forecast gap.” Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...

2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

53

R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuing but slowing expansion. (See Table 1.) In 1998, employment rose increased by 0.7% in 1998. It will slow a bit over the forecast period as foreign immigration declines. #12

54

R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2000 NEW JERSEY to more inflation and higher interest rates. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey looks for employment.6% a year over the forecast period. The services and trade sectors will provide 90% of the net increase

55

AMERICANS' CONTRIBUTIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE: OPPORTUNITIES FOR MEETING CARBON TARGETS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Integrated Database (eGRID). Forecasted marginal carbon factors are derived from energy efficiency scenario

Kockelman, Kara M.

56

Anthropogenic increase in carbon dioxide compromises plant defense against invasive insects  

SciTech Connect

Elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), a consequence of anthropogenic global change, can profoundly affect the interactions between crop plants and insect pests and may promote yet another form of global change: the rapid establishment of invasive species. Elevated CO{sub 2} increased the susceptibility of soybean plants grown under field conditions to the invasive Japanese beetle (Popillia japonica) and to a variant of western corn rootworm (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera) resistant to crop rotation by down-regulating gene expression related to defense signaling [lipoxygenase 7 (lox7), lipoxygenase 8 (lox8), and 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylate synthase (acc-s)]. The down-regulation of these genes, in turn, reduced the production of cysteine proteinase inhibitors (CystPIs), which are specific deterrents to coleopteran herbivores. Beetle herbivory increased CystPI activity to a greater degree in plants grown under ambient than under elevated CO{sub 2}. Gut cysteine proteinase activity was higher in beetles consuming foliage of soybeans grown under elevated CO{sub 2} than in beetles consuming soybeans grown in ambient CO{sub 2}, consistent with enhanced growth and development of these beetles on plants grown in elevated CO{sub 2}. These findings suggest that predicted increases in soybean productivity under projected elevated CO{sub 2} levels may be reduced by increased susceptibility to invasive crop pests.

Zavala, J.; Casteel, C.; DeLucia, E.; Berenbaum, M. [University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL (United States)

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Forecasting in Meteorology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...

C. S. Ramage

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

Response of a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Sensitivity to the Rate of Increase  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The influence of differing rates of increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration on the climatic response is investigated using a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. Five transient integrations are performed each using a different constant ...

Ronald J. Stouffer; Syukuro Manabe

1999-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

60

New Carbon Activation Process for Increased Surface Accessibility in Electrochemical Capacitors  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A process for making carbon film or powder suitable for double capacitor electrodes having a capacitance of up to about 300 F/cm{sup 3} is disclosed. This is accomplished by treating in aqueous nitric acid for a period of about 5 to 15 minutes thin carbon films obtained by carbonizing carbon-containing polymeric material having a high degree of molecular directionality, such as polyimide film, then heating the treated carbon film in a non-oxidizing atmosphere at a non-graphitizing temperature of at least 350 C for about 20 minutes, and repeating alternately the nitric acid step and the heating step from 7 to 10 times. Capacitors made with this carbon may find uses ranging from electronic devices to electric vehicle applications.

Doughty, Daniel H.; Eisenmann, Erhard T.

1999-03-16T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Regionalization in Fine-Grid GFS MOS 6-h Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The recent emergence of the National Digital Forecast Database as the flagship product of the National Weather Service has resulted in an increased demand for forecast guidance products on fine-mesh grids. Unfortunately, fine-grid forecasts with ...

Jerome P. Charba; Frederick G. Samplatsky

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

World Carbon Emissions: IEO2000 vs. IEO99  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 Notes: If world energy consumption rises to the levels projected in the IEO2000 reference case, carbon emissions would grow to 8.1 billion metric tons in 2010 (or 40 percent above the 1990 level) and 10.0 billion metric tons by 2020 (72 percent above the 1990 level). This year's forecasts are 129 million metric tons higher in 2010 relative to last year's forecast; and 192 million metric tons higher by 2020. The higher forecast for world carbon emissions can be attributed, in large part, to changes in the forecast for the FSU. Changes in the historical and projected carbon emissions for the FSU explain almost half of the increase between this year's IEO2000 and last year's report in 2010; and two-thirds of the difference in 2020. Historical data revisions

63

Climatic changes from increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (citations from the NTIS data base). Report for 1970-Jan 1980  

SciTech Connect

The cited reports of Federally-funded research examine the relationship between climatic changes and an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Topics considered include the Greenhouse effect, global climatic models, and climatic effects from increased combustion of fossil fuels. (Contains 39 abstracts)

Reimherr, G.W.

1980-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Renewal of Collaborative Research: Economically Viable Forest Harvesting Practices That Increase Carbon Sequestration  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Forests provide wildlife habitat, water and air purification, climate moderation, and timber and nontimber products. Concern about climate change has put forests in the limelight as sinks of atmospheric carbon. The C stored in the global vegetation, mostly in forests, is nearly equivalent to the amount present in atmospheric CO{sub 2}. Both voluntary and government-mandated carbon trading markets are being developed and debated, some of which include C sequestration resulting from forest management as a possible tradeable commodity. However, uncertainties regarding sources of variation in sequestration rates, validation, and leakage remain significant challenges for devising strategies to include forest management in C markets. Hence, the need for scientifically-based information on C sequestration by forest management has never been greater. The consequences of forest management on the US carbon budget are large, because about two-thirds of the {approx}300 million hectare US forest resource is classified as 'commercial forest.' In most C accounting budgets, forest harvesting is usually considered to cause a net release of C from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere. However, forest management practices could be designed to meet the multiple goals of providing wood and paper products, creating economic returns from natural resources, while sequestering C from the atmosphere. The shelterwood harvest strategy, which removes about 30% of the basal area of the overstory trees in each of three successive harvests spread out over thirty years as part of a stand rotation of 60-100 years, may improve net C sequestration compared to clear-cutting because: (1) the average C stored on the land surface over a rotation increases, (2) harvesting only overstory trees means that a larger fraction of the harvested logs can be used for long-lived sawtimber products, compared to more pulp resulting from clearcutting, (3) the shelterwood cut encourages growth of subcanopy trees by opening up the forest canopy to increasing light penetration. Decomposition of onsite harvest slash and of wastes created during timber processing releases CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere, thus offsetting some of the C sequestered in vegetation. Decomposition of soil C and dead roots may also be temporarily stimulated by increased light penetration and warming of the forest floor. Quantification of these processes and their net effect is needed. We began studying C sequestration in a planned shelterwood harvest at the Howland Forest in central Maine in 2000. The harvest took place in 2002 by the International Paper Corporation, who assisted us to track the fates of harvest products (Scott et al., 2004, Environmental Management 33: S9-S22). Here we present the results of intensive on-site studies of the decay of harvest slash, soil respiration, growth of the remaining trees, and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO{sub 2} during the first six years following the harvest. These results are combined with calculations of C in persisting off-site harvest products to estimate the net C consequences to date of this commercial shelterwood harvest operation. Tower-based eddy covariance is an ideal method for this study, as it integrates all C fluxes in and out of the forest over a large 'footprint' area and can reveal how the net C flux, as well as gross primary productivity and respiration, change following harvest. Because the size of this experiment precludes large-scale replication, we are use a paired-airshed approach, similar to classic large-scale paired watershed experiments. Measurements of biomass and C fluxes in control and treatment stands were compared during a pre-treatment calibration period, and then divergence from pre-treatment relationships between the two sites measured after the harvest treatment. Forests store carbon (C) as they accumulate biomass. Many forests are also commercial sources of timber and wood fiber. In most C accounting budgets, forest harvesting is usually considered to cause a net release of C from the terrestrial biosphere to the at

Davidson, E.A.; Dail, D.B., Hollinger, D.; Scott, N.; Richardson, A.

2012-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

65

Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...

66

Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...

Datta, Shoumen

2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

67

Making Forecasts Meaningful: Explanations of Problematic Predictions in Northeast Brazil  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study illustrates the need to consider the multiple interpretations and experiences that influence how climate forecasts are evaluated in local contexts when assessing how useful forecasts can be for increasing the resilience of rural ...

Karen Pennesi

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Factors Influencing Skill Improvements in the ECMWF Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the past 30 years the skill in ECMWF numerical forecasts has steadily improved. There are three major contributing factors: 1) improvements in the forecast model, 2) improvements in the data assimilation, and 3) the increased number of ...

Linus Magnusson; Erland Källén

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...

A. James Wagner

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

Mitigation of atmospheric carbon emissions through increased energy efficiency versus increased non-carbon energy sources: A trade study using a simplified {open_quotes}market-free{close_quotes} exogenously driven model  

SciTech Connect

A simplified model of global, long-term energy use is described and used to make a `top-level` comparison of two generic approaches for mitigating atmospheric carbon emissions: (a) those based on increased energy efficiency; and (b) those based on increased use of reduced- or non-carbon fuels. As approximate as is the model, first-order estimates of and trade offs between increasing non-carbon generation capacities (e.g., supply-side solutions) versus energy-use efficiency (e.g., demand-side solutions) to stem atmospheric carbon accumulations can be useful in guiding more elaborate models. At the level of this analysis, both the costs of abatement and the costs of damage can be large, with the formation of benefit-to-cost ratios as a means of assessment being limited by uncertainties associated with relating given climatic responses to greenhouse warming to aggregate damage cost, as well as uncertainties associated with procedures used for multi-generation discounting of both abatement and damage costs. In view of uncertainties associated with both supply-side and demand-side approaches, as well as the estimation of greenhouse-warming responses per se, a combination of solutions seems prudent. Key findings are: (a) the relative insensitivity of the benefit-to-cost ratio adopted in this study to supply-side versus demand-side approaches to abating atmospheric carbon-dioxide emissions; (b) the extreme sensitivity of damage costs, abatement costs, and the related benefit-to-cost ratios to the combination of discounting procedure and the (time) concavity of the function used to relate global temperature rise to damage costs; and (c) no matter the discounting procedure and/or functional relationship between average temperature rise and a damage cost, a goal of increased per-capita gross world product at minimum damage suggests action now rather than delay.

Krakowski, R.A.

1997-08-24T23:59:59.000Z

71

Verifying Forecasts Spatially  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...

Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...

André Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

Temperature dependent thermal conductivity increase of aqueous nanofluid with single walled carbon nanotube inclusions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the thermal conductivity at higher temperatures up to 6%. Computational modeling of SWCNTs in water using of water seeded with single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNT) synthesized using the alcohol catalytic this fluid for practical applications. We compare experimental results with existing analytical models

Maruyama, Shigeo

74

Time Series and Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...

75

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

76

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.

Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sørensen

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Leidenfrost temperature increase for impacting droplets on carbon-nanofiber surfaces  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Droplets impacting on a superheated surface can either exhibit a contact boiling regime, in which they make direct contact with the surface and boil violently, or a film boiling regime, in which they remain separated from the surface by their own vapor. The transition from the contact to the film boiling regime depends not only on the temperature of the surface and kinetic energy of the droplet, but also on the size of the structures fabricated on the surface. Here we experimentally show that surfaces covered with carbon-nanofibers delay the transition to film boiling to much higher temperature compared to smooth surfaces. We present physical arguments showing that, because of the small scale of the carbon fibers, they are cooled by the vapor flow just before the liquid impact, thus permitting contact boiling up to much higher temperatures than on smooth surfaces. We also show that, as long as the impact is in the film boiling regime, the spreading factor of impacting droplets follows the same $\\We^{3/10}$ sc...

Nair, Hrudya; Tran, Tuan; van Houselt, Arie; Prosperetti, Andrea; Lohse, Detlef; Sun, Chao

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

Renewal of Collaborative Research: Economically viable Forest Harvesting Practices that Increase Carbon Sequestration  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This technical report covers a 3-year cooperative agreement between the University of Maine and the Northeastern Forest Experiment Station that focused on the characterization of forest stands and the assessment of forest carbon storage (see attached for detailed description of the project). The goal of this work was to compare estimates of forest C storage made via remeasurement of FIA-type plots with eddy flux measurements. In addition to relating whole ecosystem estimates of carbon storage to changes in aboveground biomass, we explored methodologies by partitioning growth estimates from periodic inventory measurements into annual estimates. In the final year, we remeasured plots that were subject to a shelterwood harvest over the winter of 2001-02 to assess the production of coarse woody debris by this harvest, to remeasure trees in a long-term stand first established by NASA, to carry out other field activities at Howland, and, to assess the importance of downed and decaying wood as well as standing dead trees to the C inputs to harvested and non harvested plots.

Dail, David Bryan [University of Maine

2012-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

79

Business forecasting methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2012  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY increased our forecast slightly from early April, due to large amounts of uncertainty in both the phase and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World

82

Response of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation and Ventilation to Increasing Carbon Dioxide in CCSM3  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The response of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation to idealized climate forcing of 1% per year compound increase in CO2 is examined in three configurations of the Community Climate System Model version 3 that differ in their component ...

Frank O. Bryan; Gokhan Danabasoglu; Norikazu Nakashiki; Yoshikatsu Yoshida; Dong-Hoon Kim; Junichi Tsutsui; Scott C. Doney

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

ORNL integrated forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.

Rizy, C.G.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

forecast | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...

86

Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville

Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts,” Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Market Trends - Carbon  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Carbon Dioxide Emissions Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Market Trends - Carbon Dioxide Emissions Index (click to jump links) Carbon Dioxide Emissions Emissions from Electricity Generation Carbon Dioxide Emissions Higher Energy Consumption Forecast Increases Carbon Dioxide Emissions Figure 115. Carbon dioxide emissions by sector and fuel, 1990-2025 (million metric tons). Having problems, call our National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 for help. Figure data Carbon dioxide emissions from energy use are projected to increase on average by 1.5 percent per year from 2002 to 2025, to 8,142 million metric tons (Figure 115). Emissions per capita are projected to grow by 0.7 percent per year from 2002 to 2025. Carbon dioxide emissions in the residential sector, including emissions

90

Global and Local Skill Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...

P. L. Houtekamer

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water

92

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

93

Does the term structure forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-

Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...

Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

Composite forecasting in commodity systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The

Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

96

Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We propose to develop a dynamic algorithm that intelligently analyzes existing solar weather data and constructs an increasingly more accurate equation/algorithm for predicting solar weather accurately in real time. This dynamic algorithm analyzes a wealth of data derived from scientific research and provides increasingly accurate solar forecasts. As the database of information grows over time, this algorithm perfects itself and reduces forecast uncertainties. This will provide a vastly more effective way of processing existing data for practical use in the public and private sectors. Specifically, we created an algorithm that stores data from several sources in a way that is useable, we created the ?dynamic algorithm? used for creating accurate/effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a vast improvement over current methods employed.

Fischer, Luke D.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.  

SciTech Connect

ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most wind plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational setting. It shall be demonstrated that when used properly, the real-time offsite measurements materially improve wind ramp capture and prediction statistics, when compared to traditional wind forecasting techniques and to a simple persistence model.

Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

2012-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

98

Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...

Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

Evaluating Point Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...

Gneiting, Tilmann

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

Forecasters ’ Objectives and Strategies ?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.

Iván Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sørensen

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Reading the Tea Leaves: How Utilities in the West Are Managing Carbon Regulatory Risk in their Resource Plans  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

each incorporating one of three gas price forecasts (low,developed these three gas price forecasts based, in part, onthe highest carbon and gas prices, under the explicit

Barbose, Galen

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...

Dean P. Gulezian

1981-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

Sustainable Carbon Sequestration: Increasing CO2-Storage Efficiency through a CO2-Brine Displacement Approach  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CO2 sequestration is one of the proposed methods for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere and therefore mitigating global climate change. Few studies on storing CO2 in an aquifer have been conducted on a regional scale. This study offers a conceptual approach to increasing the storage efficiency of CO2 injection in saline formations and investigates what an actual CO2 storage project might entail using field data for the Woodbine aquifer in East Texas. The study considers three aquifer management strategies for injecting CO2 emissions from nearby coal-fired power plants into the Woodbine aquifer. The aquifer management strategies studied are bulk CO2 injection, and two CO2-brine displacement strategies. A conceptual model performed with homogeneous and average reservoir properties reveals that bulk injection of CO2 pressurizes the aquifer, has a storage efficiency of 0.46% and can only last for 20 years without risk of fracturing the CO2 injection wells. The CO2-brine displacement strategy can continue injecting CO2 for as many as 240 years until CO2 begins to break through in the production wells. This offers 12 times greater CO2 storage efficiency than the bulk injection strategy. A full field simulation with a geological model based on existing aquifer data validates the storage capacity claims made by the conceptual model. A key feature in the geological model is the Mexia-Talco fault system that serves as a likely boundary between the saline aquifer region suitable for CO2 storage and an updip fresh water region. Simulation results show that CO2 does not leak into the fresh water region of the iv aquifer after 1000 years of monitoring if the faults have zero transmissibility, but a negligible volume of brine eventually gets through the mostly sealing fault system as pressure across the faults slowly equilibrates during the monitoring period. However, for fault transmissibilities of 0.1 and 1, both brine and CO2 leak into the fresh water aquifer in increasing amounts for both bulk injection and CO2-brine displacement strategies. In addition, brine production wells draw some fresh water into the saline aquifer if the Mexia-Talco fault system is not sealing. A CO2 storage project in the Woodbine aquifer would impact as many as 15 counties with high-pressure CO2 pipelines stretching as long as 875 km from the CO2 source to the injection site. The required percentage of power plant energy capacity was 7.43% for bulk injection, 7.9% for the external brine disposal case, and 10.2% for the internal saturated brine injection case. The estimated total cost was $0.00132–$0.00146/kWh for the bulk injection, $0.00191–$0.00211/kWh for the external brine disposal case, and $0.0019–$0.00209/kWh for the internal saturated brine injection case.

Akinnikawe, Oyewande

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

104

Bloomberg New Energy Finance Carbon Markets formerly New Energy...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

London-based carbon markets division of New Energy Finance which provides analysis, price forecasting, consultancy and risk management services relating to carbon. References...

105

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

Mohaghegh, Shahab

106

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

107

GENOME ENABLED MODIFICATION OF POPLAR ROOT DEVELOPMENT FOR INCREASED CARBON SEQUESTRATION  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

DR5 as a reporter system to study auxin response in Populus Plant Cell Reports 32:453-463 Auxin responsive promoter DR5 reporter system is functional in Populus to monitor auxin response in tissues including leaves, roots, and stems. We described the behavior of the DR5::GUS reporter system in stably transformed Populus plants. We found several similarities with Arabidopsis, including sensitivity to native and synthetic auxins, rapid induction after treatment in a variety of tissues, and maximal responses in root tissues. There were also several important differences from Arabidopsis, including slower time to maximum response and lower induction amplitude. Young leaves and stem sections below the apex showed much higher DR5 activity than did older leaves and stems undergoing secondary growth. DR5 activity was highest in cortex, suggesting high levels of auxin concentration and/or sensitivity in this tissue. Our study shows that the DR5 reporter system is a sensitive and facile system for monitoring auxin responses and distribution at cellular resolution in poplar. The Populus AINTEGUMENTA LIKE 1 homeotic transcription factor PtAIL1 controls the formation of adventitious root primordia. Plant Physiol. 160: 1996-2006 Adventitious rooting is an essential but sometimes rate-limiting step in the clonal multiplication of elite tree germplasm, because the ability to form roots declines rapidly with age in mature adult plant tissues. In spite of the importance of adventitious rooting, the mechanism behind this developmental process remains poorly understood. We have described the transcriptional profiles that are associated with the developmental stages of adventitious root formation in the model tree poplar (Populus trichocarpa). Transcriptome analyses indicate a highly specific temporal induction of the AINTEGUMENTA LIKE1 (PtAIL1) transcription factor of the AP2 family during adventitious root formation. Transgenic poplar samples that overexpressed PtAIL1 were able to grow an increased number of adventitious roots, whereas RNA interference mediated the down-expression of PtAIL1 expression, which led to a delay in adventitious root formation. Microarray analysis showed that the expression of 15 genes, including the transcription factors AGAMOUS-Like6 and MYB36, was overexpressed in the stem tissues that generated root primordia in PtAIL1-overexpressing plants, whereas their expression was reduced in the RNA interference lines. These results demonstrate that PtAIL1 is a positive regulator of poplar rooting that acts early in the development of adventitious roots. Genomes. 7: 91-101 Knowledge of the functional relationship between genes and organismal phenotypes in perennial plants is extremely limited. Using a population of 627 independent events, we assessed the feasibility of activation tagging as a forward genetics tool for Populus. Mutant identification after 2 years of field testing was nearly sevenfold (6.5%) higher than in greenhouse studies that employed Arabidopsis and identical transformation vectors. Approximately two thirds of all mutant phenotypes were not seen in vitro and in the greenhouse; they were discovered only after the second year of field assessment. The trees? large size (5-10 m in height), perennial growth, and interactions with the natural environment are factors that are thought to have contributed to the high rate of observable phenotypes in the field. The mutant phenotypes affected a variety of morphological and physiological traits, including leaf size and morphology, crown architecture, stature, vegetative dormancy, and tropic responses. Characterization of the insertion in more than 100 events with and without mutant phenotypes showed that tags predominantly (70%) inserted in a 13-Kbp region up- and downstream of the genes? coding regions with approximately even distribution among the 19 chromosomes. Transcriptional activation was observed in many proximal genes studied. Successful phenotype recapitulation was observed in 10 of 12 retransformed genes tested, indicating true tagging and a functiona

Busov, Victor

2013-03-05T23:59:59.000Z

108

Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.

Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

Transient Response of the Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Increasing Carbon Dioxide. Part III: Analysis of Global-Mean Response Using Simple Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The roles of surface, atmospheric, and oceanic feedbacks in controlling the global-mean transient response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to increasing carbon dioxide are investigated. The analysis employs a four-box ...

J. M. Murphy

1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

110

Climatic impacts of land-use change due to crop yield increases and a universal carbon tax from a scenario model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Future land cover will have a significant impact on climate and is strongly influenced by the extent of agricultural land-use. Differing assumptions of crop yield increase and carbon pricing mitigation strategies affect projected expansion of ...

T. Davies-Barnard; P. J. Valdes; J. S. Singarayer; C. D. Jones

111

Damage of Land Biosphere due to Intense Warming by 1000-Fold Rapid Increase in Atmospheric Methane: Estimation with a Climate–Carbon Cycle Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Decadal-time-scale responses of climate and the global carbon cycle to warming associated with rapid increases in atmospheric methane from a massive methane release from marine sedimentary methane hydrates are investigated with a coupled climate–...

Atsushi Obata; Kiyotaka Shibata

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Light truck forecasts  

SciTech Connect

The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.

Liepins, G.E.

1979-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

114

LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts

Feinberg, Eugene A.

115

Factors Driving Prices & Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...

116

Modeling and Forecasting Aurora  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.

Dirk Lummerzheim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Relating the Skill of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts to the Synoptic Environment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Prior knowledge of the performance of a tropical cyclone intensity forecast holds the potential to increase the value of forecasts for end users. The values of certain dynamical parameters, such as storm speed, latitude, current intensity, ...

Kieran T. Bhatia; David S. Nolan

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

Hydrometeorological Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts in Complex Terrain. Part I: Meteorological Evaluation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper addresses the question of whether it is better to include lower-resolution members of a nested suite of numerical precipitation forecasts to increase ensemble size, or to utilize high-resolution members only to maximize forecast ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

Assembling the crystal ball : using demand signal repository to forecast demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Improving forecast accuracy has positive effects on supply chain performance. Forecast accuracy can reduce inventory levels, increase customer service levels and responsiveness, or a combination of the two. However, the ...

Rashad, Ahmed (Ahmed Fathy Mustafa Rashad Abdelaal)

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

A New Approach to Forecasting Typhoon Frequency over the Western North Pacific  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a new approach for forecasting the typhoon frequency of the western North Pacific (WNP). The year-to-year increase or decrease in typhoon frequency is first forecasted to yield a net typhoon frequency prediction. Five key ...

Ke Fan; Huijun Wang

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

122

Explicit Cloud-Scale Models for Operational Forecasts: A Note of Caution  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

As computational capacity has increased, cloud-scale numerical models are slowly being modified from pure research tools to forecast tools. Previous studies that used cloud-scale models as explicit forecast tools, in much the same way as a ...

Kimberly L. Elmore; David J. Stensrud; Kenneth C. Crawford

2002-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

Nonlinear Characteristics of Ensemble Perturbation Evolution and their Application to Forecasting High-impact Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble forecasting is becoming an increasingly important aspect of numerical weather prediction. As ensemble perturbation evolution becomes more nonlinear as a forecast evolves, the ensemble mean can diverge from the model attractor on which ...

Brian C. Ancell

124

Enhanced research program on the long-range climatic effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and sulfate aerosols. Final report  

SciTech Connect

Consistent with the objectives to extract as much as possible from existing models on the role of the oceans in the greenhouse effect and to improve various aspects of the coupled system, the authors made significant progress in three areas. (1) In a series of manuscripts, they documented how the El Nino-Southern Oscillation operates in the model and how it is enhanced with increased carbon dioxide. (2) In studies with collaborators Branstator, Karoly, and Karl, they explored the possible carbon dioxide ``fingerprint`` in zonal mean temperatures, the effects of changes in extratropical teleconnections, and the regional effects of low-frequency variability and climate change. (3) They experimented with an advanced version of the NCAR community climate model (CCM0) that also includes the Ramanathan and Collins cirrus albedo feedback mechanism. This model was run with a mixed layer and was tested with the 1{degree} 20-level Semtner and Chervin ocean model. The latter includes the Arctic Ocean and dynamic sea ice, both showing realistic results. The authors completed the coupling of the advanced models. The dynamic ocean model was a 1{degree}x1{degree} version of the Semtner-Chervin 1/2{degree}x1/2{degree} ocean model with 20 vertical levels. The 1{degree}x1{degree} version of the Semtner-Chervin model used in this research explicitly resolved some aspects of the mesoscale eddies as did the parent model. The new coupled model system for greenhouse gas simulations on climate change was tested on multidecadal runs.

Washington, W.M.; Meehl, G.A.

1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

126

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

127

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): “OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner, G. , and U. K.2005): “Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Forecasting in the Presence of Level Shifts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 : 537-560. Hamilton JD.430. Harvey AC. 1989. Forecasting, structural time seriesMH, Timmermann A. 1994. Forecasting stock returns: An

Smith, Aaron

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025 - Market Trends- Carbon  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Carbon Dioxide Emissions Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Market Trends - Carbon Dioxide Emissions Higher Energy Consumption Forecast Increases Carbon Dioxide Emissions Figure 110. Carbon dioxide emissions by sector and fuel, 2003 and 2025 (million metric tons). Having problems, call our National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 for help. Figure data Carbon dioxide emissions from energy use are projected to increase on average by 1.5 percent per year from 2003 to 2025, to 8,062 million metric tons (Figure 110). Emissions per capita are projected to grow by 0.7 percent per year. New carbon dioxide mitigation programs, more rapid improvements in technology, or more rapid adoption of voluntary programs could result in lower emissions levels than projected here.

130

Climatic changes from increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. 1970-February 1981 (citations from the NTIS Data Base). Report for 1970-Feb 81  

SciTech Connect

The cited reports of Federally-funded research examine the relationship between climatic changes and an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Topics considered include the Greenhouse effect, global climatic models, and climatic effects from increased combustion of fossil fuels. (This updated bibliography contains 59 citations, 20 of which are new entries to the previous edition.)

1981-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

Transient Response of the Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Increasing Carbon Dioxide. Part II: Spatial and Temporal Structure of Response  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A high-resolution (2.75° lat × ° 3.75° long) coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been used to simulate the transient response of climate to a gradual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Although the radiative forcing increases ...

J. M. Murphy; J. F. B. Mitchell

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast

133

Climate change in the sea: the implications of increasing the carbon dioxide inputs to the surface ocean  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The oceans are estimated to be absorbing one-third of the fossil fuel carbon released into the atmosphere, a process that is expected to change ocean carbon chemistry. I will present data from the Washington coast showing ocean pH declines and changes to the shell chemistry of bivalves. I will discuss implications of carbon cycle changes for marine species, including insights from a coastal area where I have worked for more than 24 years. I will summarize what we know to date about this process of “ocean acidification”.

Pfister, Cathy [University of Chicago

2012-12-23T23:59:59.000Z

134

An artificial neural network approach for day-ahead electricity prices forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper is about the use of artificial neural networks on day-ahead electricity prices forecasting. In nowadays competitive electricity markets, good forecasting tools hedging against daily price volatility are becoming increasingly important. The ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, electricity markets, prices forecasting

João Catalão; Sílvio Mariano; Victor Mendes; Luís Ferreira

2005-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

135

A first look at Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) for hydrological seasonal prediction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A first look at Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) for hydrological seasonal prediction Xing, the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), with advanced physics, increased resolution and refined initiali- zation to improve the seasonal climate forecasts. We present a first look at the capability

Pan, Ming

136

Multiple-Century Response of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to an Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To speculate on the future change of climate over several centuries, three 500-year integrations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model were performed. In addition to the standard integration in which the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide ...

Syukuro Manabe; Ronald J. Stouffer

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

Mohaghegh, Shahab

138

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW

139

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others

140

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 3, 2145­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC ­ Department­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

142

4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OSD 4, 189­212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

143

FINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

predecessors to forecast stock prices and manage portfolios for approximately 3 years.) We examineFINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS SAM MAHFOUD and GANESH MANI LBS Capital Management entitled Genetic Algorithms for Inductive Learning). Time-series forecasting is a special type

Boetticher, Gary D.

144

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

145

Forecast of auroral activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting

A. T. Y. Lui

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

147

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

Information and Inference in Econometrics: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Application: Forecasting Equity Premium . . . . . . . . . .2.6.1 Forecasting4 Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models 4.1

Tu, Yundong

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Using Evolutionary Programming to Generate Skillful Extreme Value Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new method for producing large member ensemble forecasts, using a variation of Evolutionary Programming (EP), is presented. A series of increasingly complex datasets are used to demonstrate the method and its potential utility. First, EP ...

Paul J. Roebber

152

Using Evolutionary Programming to Generate Skillful Extreme Value Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new method for producing large member ensemble forecasts, using a variation of evolutionary programming (EP), is presented. A series of increasingly complex datasets are used to demonstrate the method and its potential utility. First, EP ...

Paul J. Roebber

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies ’ finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.

Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

155

European Union Wind Energy Forecasting Model Development and Testing: U.S. Department of Energy -- EPRI Wind Turbine Verification Pr ogram  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Wind forecasting can increase the strategic and market values of wind power from large wind facilities. This report summarizes the results of the European Union (EU) wind energy forecasting project and performance testing of the EU wind forecasting model. The testing compared forecast and observed wind speed and generation data from U.S. wind facilities.

1999-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

156

Forecasting multi-appliance usage for smart home energy management  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We address the problem of forecasting the usage of multiple electrical appliances by domestic users, with the aim of providing suggestions about the best time to run appliances in order to reduce carbon emissions and save money (assuming time-of-use ...

Ngoc Cuong Truong, James McInerney, Long Tran-Thanh, Enrico Costanza, Sarvapali D. Ramchurn

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

158

Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2006  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The worldwide installed wind generation capacity increased by 25 and reached almost 60,000 MW worldwide during 2005. As wind capacity continues to grow and large regional concentrations of wind generation emerge, utilities and regional transmission organizations will increasingly need accurate same-day and next-day forecasts of wind energy generation to dispatch system generation and transmission resource and anticipate rapid changes of wind generation.

2006-12-05T23:59:59.000Z

159

Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2005  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The worldwide installed wind generation capacity increased by 25 and reached almost 60,000 MW worldwide during 2005. As wind capacity continues to grow and large regional concentrations of wind generation emerge, utilities and regional transmission organizations will increasingly need accurate same-day and next-day forecasts of wind energy generation to dispatch system generation and transmission resource and anticipate rapid changes of wind generation. The project objective is to summarize the results o...

2006-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

160

Chapter 11 Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish between the information set for ‘normal forces ’ and the one for ‘break drivers’, then outline sources of potential information. Relevant non-linear, dynamic models facing multiple breaks can have more candidate variables than observations, so we discuss automatic model selection. As a failure to accurately forecast breaks remains likely, we augment our strategy by modelling breaks during their progress, and consider robust forecasting devices.

Jennifer L. Castle; Nicholas W. P. Fawcett; David F. Hendry

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or

162

Wind forecasting objectives for utility schedulers and energy traders  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The wind energy industry and electricity producers can benefit in a number of ways from increased wind forecast accuracy. Higher confidence in the reliability of wind forecasts can help persuade an electric utility to increase the penetration of wind energy into its operating system and to augment the capacity value of wind electric generation. Reliable forecasts can also assist daily energy traders employed by utilities in marketing the available and anticipated wind energy to power pools and other energy users. As the number of utilities with wind energy experience grows, and wind energy penetration levels increase, the need for reliable wind forecasts will likely grow as well. This period of wind energy growth also coincides with advances in computer weather prediction technology that could lead to more accurate wind forecasts. Thus, it is important to identify the type of forecast information needed by utility schedulers and energy traders. This step will help develop approaches to the challenge of wind forecasting that will result in useful products being supplied to utilities or other energy generating entities. This paper presents the objectives, approach, and current findings of a US Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory (DOE/NREL) initiative to develop useful wind forecasting tools for utilities involved with wind energy generation. The focus of this initiative thus far has been to learn about the needs of prospective utility users. NREL representatives conducted a series of onsite interviews with key utility staff, usually schedulers and research planners, at seven US utilities. The purpose was to ascertain information on actual scheduling and trading procedures, and how utilities could integrate wind forecasting into these activities.

Schwartz, M.N. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States); Bailey, B.H. [AWS Scientific, Inc., Albany, NY (United States)

1998-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Aviation forecasting and systems analyses  

SciTech Connect

The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.

Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Studies of inflation and forecasting.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This dissertation contains five research papers in the area of applied econometrics. The two broad themes of the research are inflation and forecasting. The first… (more)

Bermingham, Colin

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

Lew, D.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

~A four carbon alcohol. It has double the amount of carbon of ethanol, which equates to a substantial increase in harvestable energy (Btu's).  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to a substantial increase in harvestable energy (Btu's). ~Butanol is safer to handle with a Reid Value of 0.33 psi is easily recovered, increasing the energy yield of a bushel of corn by an additional 18 percent over the energy yield of ethanol produced from the same quantity of corn. ~Current butanol prices as a chemical

Toohey, Darin W.

167

On the Prediction of Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, ...

T. N. Palmer; S. Tibaldi

1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...

Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts… (more)

Sakva, Denys

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

What Is the True Value of Forecasts?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to ...

Antony Millner

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The ...

Lance F. Bosart

2003-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

174

Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One goal of weather and climate forecasting is to inform decision making. Effective communication of forecasts to various sectors of the public is essential for meeting that goal, yet studies repeatedly show that forecasts are not well understood ...

Karen Pennesi

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

175

Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A cloud model ensemble forecasting approach is developed to create forecasts that describe the range and distribution of thunderstorm lifetimes that may be expected to occur on a particular day. Such forecasts are crucial for anticipating severe ...

Kimberly L. Elmore; David J. Stensrud; Kenneth C. Crawford

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 1–4 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, ...

Andreas P. Weigel; Daniel Baggenstos; Mark A. Liniger; Frédéric Vitart; Christof Appenzeller

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

178

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

179

A Forecast for the California Labor Market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

issue for the state. A Forecast for the California Laborto Go? ” The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation andAngeles: UCLA Anderson Forecast: Nation 1.1 – 1.9. Dhawan,

Mitchell, Daniel J. B.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK STAFFREPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400.................................................................................. 9 Sources of Forecast Error....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...

David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality of such forecasts can ...

Cristina Primo; Christopher A. T. Ferro; Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

184

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical modeling Celia Frank and Ashish Garg, USA Les Sztandera Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, PA, USA Keywords Apparel, Forecasting average (MA), auto- regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since

Raheja, Amar

185

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

Forecasting Electric Vehicle Costs with Experience Curves  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

April, 5. R 2~1. Dino. "Forecasting the Price Evolution of 1ElectromcProducts," Ioumal of Forecasting, ¥oL4, No I, 1985.costs and a set of forecasting tools that can be refined as

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

187

Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...

Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both sea ice forecast models and methods to measure their skill are needed for operational sea ice forecasting. Two simple sea ice models are described and tested here. Four different measures of skill are also tested. The forecasts from the ...

Robert W. Grumbine

1998-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.

James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

When professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analyzed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.

Allan W. Gregory; James Yetman; Jel Codes C E; Robert Eggert; Fred Joutz

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

192

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025—slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in

193

Colorado uranium production forecast for 1981 to 1990. [Monograph  

SciTech Connect

A decline in demand for yellowcake, a single-use commodity of which Colorado is the fourth largest producer, is influenced by several interrelated factors. The revised forecasts for 1990 assume that electric-power capacity will be lower than previous forecasts and that domestic production will supply 80% of the yellowcake. Production will be lower until inventory depletion allows a balanced market. Production rates will begin increasing after 1987. An appendix summarizes the factors influencing production rates. 10 references, 3 tables.

Morse, J.G.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

Background pollution forecast over bulgaria  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...

D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

195

Frequency Dependence in Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method is proposed to calculate measures of forecast skill for high, medium and low temporal frequency variations in the atmosphere. This method is applied to a series of 128 consecutive 1 to 10-day forecasts produced at NMC with their ...

H. M. van Den Dool; Suranjana Saha

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate… (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Title Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication...

198

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

199

Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The importance of fog forecasting to the aviation community, to road transportation and to the public at large is irrefutable. The deadliest aviation accident in history was in fact partly a result of fog back on 27 March 1977. This has, along with numerous less dramatic examples, helped focus many meteorological efforts into trying to forecast this phenomenon as accurately as possible. Until recently, methods of fog forecasting have relied primarily on the forecaster's ability to recognize surface weather patterns known to be favorable for producing fog and once it has formed, to state that it will persist unless the pattern changes. Unfortunately, while such methods have shown some success, many times they have led weather forecasters astray with regards to the onset and dissipation of the phenomenon. Fortunately, now with computers becoming ever-increasingly powerful, numerical models have been utilized to attempt to more accurately deal with the fog forecasting problem. This study uses a 1 dimensional model called COBEL to simulate several past fog cases in the hopes of mimicking its actual occurrence and determining what weather parameters the fog is most sensitive to. The goal is to create a technique where the weather forecaster will be able to run several fog forecasts with the model each time with different initial conditions representing the uncertain weather conditions. In this way, the forecaster will be able to use his expertise to choose the most likely scenario. Results indicate that COBEL is able to simulate the fog cases quite well. Issues remain with the model's handling of the gravitational settling rate, the fact that it currently does not include any vegetation, and its coupling process with the soil model. Nevertheless, simulations and sensitivity tests indicate that soil temperature, soil moisture, low-level winds, initial relative humidity, dew deposition and surface emissivity are the weather parameters that affect fog the most. These parameters will be prime candidates for the 1 dimensional ensemble (ODEP) technique described above.

Peyraud, Lionel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast

202

Future world oil prices: modeling methodologies and summary of recent forecasts  

SciTech Connect

This paper has three main objectives. First, the various methodologies that have been developed to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends are reviewed and summarized. Second, the paper summarizes recent world oil price forecasts, and, then possible, discusses the methodologies used in formulating those forecasts. Third, utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologies and the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent and projected oil market trends, oil price projections are given for the time period 1987 to 2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significant evolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex and constantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, at this point in time a consensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts is yet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that both economic and political factors should be considered when making price projections. Likewise, there is no consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely. However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further, an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oil prices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices are expected to increase by between 2 and 3% during the 1990s and beyond. Forecasters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. 69 references, 3 figures, 10 tables.

Curlee, T.R.

1985-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Forecasting world oil prices: the evolution of modeling methodologies and summary of recent projections  

SciTech Connect

This paper has three main objectives: (1) to review and summarize the varios methodologies that have been developed to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends, (2) to summarize recent world oil price forecasts, and, when possible, discuss the methodologies used in formulating those forecasts, and (3) utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologies and the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent and projected oil market trends, to give oil price projections for the time period 1987 to 2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significant evolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex and constantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, a consensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts is yet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that both economic and political factors should be considered when making price projections. Likewise, there is no consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely. However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further, an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oil prices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices are expected to increase by between 2 and 3% during the 1990s and beyond. Forecasters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. 68 references, 1 figure, 6 tables.

Curlee, T.R.

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

205

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Techniques for Use in Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Quantitative hydrologic forecasting usually requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. First, it is important to accurately measure the precipitation falling over a particular watershed of interest. Second, ...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Michael D. Hudlow

1984-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Carbon Dioxide  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Carbon Dioxide Emissions Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 Higher Energy Consumption Forecast Increases Carbon Dioxide Emissions Figure 107. Carbn dioxide emissions by sector and fuel, 2004 and 2030 (million metric tons). Having problems, call our National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 for help. Figure data CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels are proportional to fuel consumption. Among fossil fuel types, coal has the highest carbon content, natural gas the lowest, and petroleum in between. In the AEO2006 reference case, the shares of these fuels change slightly from 2004 to 2030, with more coal and less petroleum and natural gas. The combined share of carbon-neutral renewable and nuclear energy is stable from 2004 to 2030 at

207

Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l­ Load forecast methodology ­ Drivers of the forecast f i­ Treatment of conservation ­ Incorporating impact of weather ­ Forecast for 2019 #12;Regional Loads (MWA and MW)Regional Loads (MWA and MW

208

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

209

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia

210

Combining forecast weights: Why and how?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions

Yip Chee Yin; Ng Kok-Haur; Lim Hock-Eam

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

211

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY dmitry.kucharavy@insa-strasbourg.fr Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

212

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

213

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form

214

Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates

215

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

216

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

217

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

Fuzzy forecasting with DNA computing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

There are many forecasting techniques including: exponential smoothing, ARIMA model, GARCH model, neural networks and genetic algorithm, etc. Since financial time series may be influenced by many factors, conventional model based techniques and hard ...

Don Jyh-Fu Jeng; Junzo Watada; Berlin Wu; Jui-Yu Wu

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Sampling Errors in Seasonal Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The limited numbers of start dates and ensemble sizes in seasonal forecasts lead to sampling errors in predictions. Defining the magnitude of these sampling errors would be useful for end users as well as informing decisions on resource ...

Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

Scoring Rules for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of probabilistic forecast verification is approached from a theoretical point of view starting from three basic desiderata: additivity, exclusive dependence on physical observations (“locality”), and strictly proper behavior. By ...

Riccardo Benedetti

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Wavelets and Field Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current field forecast verification measures are inadequate, primarily because they compress the comparison between two complex spatial field processes into one number. Discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) applied to analysis and contemporaneous ...

William M. Briggs; Richard A. Levine

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity ...

Peter Lynch

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Enhanced research program on the long-range climatic effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide -- A continuation  

SciTech Connect

In the past year, the authors have reached several important milestones in the modeling and analysis of increased greenhouse-gas-caused climate change. Some of this work was highlighted in the recent update of the 1992 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The milestones are (1) analysis of the ongoing control and transient experiments out to 70 years, (2) development and testing of a new-generation coupled model, (3) analysis of natural variability and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate change, (4) examination of the role of cirrus albedo in global climate sensitivity, (5) participation in various model intercomparisons, and (6) assistance with an exhibit on the greenhouse effect at the Franklin Institute Museum in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Although this latter activity was not part of the planned research, they felt that the contribution to the exhibit would benefit science education).

Washington, W.M.; Meehl, G.A.

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

Elevated CO2 increases tree-level intrinsic water use efficiency: insights from carbon and oxygen isotope analyses in tree rings across three forest FACE sites  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Elevated CO2 increases intrinsic water use efficiency (WUEi) of forests, but the magnitude of this effect and its interaction with climate is still poorly understood. We combined tree ring analysis with isotope measurements at three Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE, POP-EUROFACE, in Italy; Duke FACE in North Carolina and ORNL in Tennessee, USA) sites, to cover the entire life of the trees. We used 13C to assess carbon isotope discrimination ( 13C ci/ca) and changes in WUEi, while direct CO2 effects on stomatal conductance were explored using 18O as a proxy. Across all the sites, elevated CO2 increased 13C-derived WUEi on average by 73% for Liquidambar styraciflua, 77% for Pinus taeda and 75% for Populus sp., but through different ecophysiological mechanisms. Our findings provide a robust means of predicting WUEi responses from a variety of tree species exposed to variable environmental conditions over time, and species-specific relationships that can help modeling elevated CO2 and climate impacts on forest productivity, carbon and water balances.

Battipaglia, Giovanna [Second University of Naples; Saurer, Matthias [Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen, Switzerland; Cherubini, Paulo [WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; Califapietra, Carlo [University of Tuscia; McCarthy, Heather R [Duke University; Norby, Richard J [ORNL; Cotrufo, M. Francesca [Colorado State University, Fort Collins

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

225

Application of a Limited-Area Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System to a Case of Heavy Rainfall in the Mediterranean Region  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Severe weather risk assessment is becoming an increasing component of the daily operational activity at advanced meteorological forecasting centers. To improve its forecast capabilities and develop a severe weather warning system, the Sardinian ...

P. A. Chessa; G. Ficca; M. Marrocu; R. Buizza

2004-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...

Marion P. Mittermaier

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numerical–statistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value ...

Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near–real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...

Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

229

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...

J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...

Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Differences of opinion exist among forecasters—and between forecasters and users—regarding the meaning of the phrase “good (bad) weather forecasts.” These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or understanding concerning the ...

Allan H. Murphy

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, fire managers need ...

Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. Minh Le Minh Le Program Manager, Solar Program What Do These Projects Do? The Energy Department is investing $8 million in two cutting-edge projects to increase the accuracy of solar forecasting at sub-hourly,

235

Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how this pressure could affect their clients. Using annual analyst forecasts available during the planning phase of the audit, I examine whether this form of earnings management pressure affects clients’ financial statement misstatements. Next, I investigate whether auditors respond to earnings forecast pressure through audit fees and reporting delay. I find that higher levels of analyst forecast pressure increase the likelihood of client restatement. I also find that auditors charge higher audit fees and delay the issuance of the audit report in response to pressure from analyst expectations. Finally, I find that when audit clients are subject to high analyst forecast pressure, a high audit fee response by auditors mitigates the likelihood of client misstatements.

Newton, Nathan J.

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

Base Resource Forecasts - Power Marketing - Sierra Nevada Region...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Marketing > Base Resource Forecasts Base Resource Forecasts Note: Annual, rolling (monthly for 12 months), base resource forecasts are posted when they become available. Annual...

237

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...

238

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts

239

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute of89 (1999) 109—129 Forecasting new product penetration with ?

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Overestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a TDM Policy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

M. , Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy.change and social forecasting: the case of telecommuting asOverestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a

Tal, Gil

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Forecasting US CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

F. Hendry (eds), Economic Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing,W. : 2002, Macroeconomic forecasting using di?usion indexes,2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country

Steinhauser, Ralf; Auffhammer, Maximilian

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

NoVaS Transformations: Flexible Inference for Volatility Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Correlation Forecasting” in G. Elliott, C.W.J.Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland,Transformations”, forthcoming in Forecasting in the Presence

Politis, Dimitris N; Thomakos, Dimitrios D

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute ofchoice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel89 (1999) 109—129 Forecasting new product penetration with

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J.2000), Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J.F.F. (2006), The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability

Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

245

Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

P, Fitzgerald G: Regression forecasting of patient admissionapproach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergencySJ, Haug PJ, Snow GL: Forecasting daily patient volumes in

Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

Forecasting Danerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

costs could alter forecasting skill and the predictors thatForecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofOn-Line Working Paper Series Forecasting Dangerous Inmate

Berk, Richard A.; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, John-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

247

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible

Richard A. Berk; Susan B. Sorenson; Yan He

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

248

Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Goulias Page 84 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:Goulias Page 80 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:L. Demographic Forecasting with a Dynamic Stochastic

Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Goulias, Konstadinos G.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

249

Verification of clear-air turbulence forecasts June 2002, KNMI  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to increase potential energy. Under these conditions turbulence will increase in intensity until different weather conditions. It often occurs in relatively clear skies and is then referred to as clear-airVerification of clear-air turbulence forecasts A. Overeem June 2002, KNMI Technisch rapport #12

Stoffelen, Ad

250

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses three current energy issues—electricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis

251

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

252

A variable spread fuzzy linear regression model with higher explanatory power and forecasting accuracy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Fuzzy regression models have been applied to operational research (OR) applications such as forecasting. Some of previous studies on fuzzy regression analysis obtain crisp regression coefficients for eliminating the problem of increasing spreads for ... Keywords: Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Fuzzy sets, Linear regression, Mathematical programming

Shih-Pin Chen; Jr-Fong Dang

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

253

Transient response of the Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere model to increasing carbon dioxide. Part 3: Analysis of global-mean response using simple models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The roles of surface, atmospheric, and oceanic feedbacks in controlling the global-mean transient response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (AOGCM) to increasing carbon dioxide are investigated. The analysis employs a four-box energy balance model (EBM) and an oceanic box-diffusion model (BDM) both tuned to the simulated general circulation model response. The land-sea contrast in the surface warming is explained almost entirely by the shortwave radiative feedbacks associated with changes in cloud and surface albedo. The oceanic thermal inertia delays the response; however, the initial delay is enhanced by increases in Anarctic sea-ice cover, which substantially reduce the effective climate sensitivity of the model in the first half of the 75-year experiment. When driven by the observed anthropogenic greenhouse forcing from the pre-industrial period to present day, the energy balance model overestimates the warming observed over land. However, inclusion of the direct forcing due to anthropogenic tropospheric sulphate aerosol eliminates the land/sea contrast in the response at 1990, leaving the simulated warming over land slightly below the observed value, although the rapid warming observed during the 1980s is well reproduced. The vertical penetration of the oceanic response is small below 1000 m. Within the top 1000 m the effective diffusivities are substantially enhanced by reduced convection and thermohaline overturning, driven by increased precipitation minus evaporation at high latitudes. These changes in ocean heat transport become significant after year 30, whereupon the effective oceanic heat capacity increases substantially, although this increase is partially offset by the effect of changes in the sea-ice margin.

Murphy, J.M. [Meteorological Office, Bracknell, Berkshire (United Kingdom)

1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

254

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

255

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

A Review of Numerical Forecast Guidance for Hurricane Hugo  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerical forecast guidance for Hurricane Hugo from the National Meteorological Center is examined, as well as forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. No one forecast product ...

John H. Ward

1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery orders using forecasts provided by their customers. Our goal is to improve the supplier's operations through a better un- derstanding of the customers's forecast behavior. Unfortunately, customer forecasts

Murphy, Robert F.

258

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...

Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Uncertainties in forecasting future climate  

SciTech Connect

The increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons, and other trace gases (collectively, greenhouse gases) pose a three-part challenge: (1) What the changes to atmospheric composition and the climate system will be; (2) What impacts (both detrimental and beneficial) these changes will induce on the biosphere and natural and societal resources; and (3) What the appropriate response, if any, might be when considering the changes themselves, the resulting impacts, and the benefits and other impacts of the activities generating the emissions. This brief summary will address only areas of agreement and areas of uncertainty related to the first challenge.

MacCracken, M.C.

1990-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical ...

Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson; Ted L. Tsui

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society “ENSO forecast plume” during the 2002–11 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

Local Forecast Communication In The Altiplano  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts play an important role in planting decisions for Andean peasant producers. Predictions of the upcoming cropping season determine when, where, and what farmers will plant. This research looks at the sources of forecast information used ...

Jere L. Gilles; Corinne Valdivia

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...

Lance F. Bosart

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (...

Andreas Röpnack; Andreas Hense; Christoph Gebhardt; Detlev Majewski

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

Value from Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explores the objective application of ambiguity information, that is, the uncertainty in forecast probability derived from an ensemble. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with forecast uncertainty ...

Mark S. Allen; F. Anthony Eckel

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

Forecaster Workstation Design: Concepts and Issues  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Some basic ideas about designing a meteorological workstation for operational weather forecasting are presented, in part as a complement to the recently published discussion of workstation design by R. R. Hoffman. Scientific weather forecasting ...

Charles A. Doswell III

1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

267

Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...

Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem

2004-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

268

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing

de Lijser, Peter

269

Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

Trepte, Kai

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...

Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because ...

Eric Gilleland; David Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Barbara Casati; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, ...

Emily Wallace; Alberto Arribas

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for River Basins  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology has been formulated to aid a field forecaster in preparing probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for river basins. The format of probabilistic QPF is designed to meet three requirements: (i) it is compatible with ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; William J. Drzal; Theresa Rossi Drake; James C. Weyman; Louis A. Giordano

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

A General Framework for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described. For further elaboration of the framework, two factorizations of the joint distribution are investigated: 1) the calibration-...

Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler

1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

Management of supply chain: an alternative modelling technique for forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view

Datta, Shoumen

2007-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

277

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.

278

Forecasting Techniques Utilized by the Forecast Branch of the National Meteorological Center During a Major Convective Rainfall Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Meteorologists within the Forecast Branch (FB) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) produce operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). These manual forecasts are prepared utilizing various forecasting techniques, which are ...

Theodore W. Funk

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

279

Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the U.S. National Weather Service  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast verification in operational hydrology has been very limited to date, mainly due to the complexity of verifying both forcing input forecasts and hydrologic forecasts on multiple space–time scales. However, forecast verification needs to ...

Julie Demargne; Mary Mullusky; Kevin Werner; Thomas Adams; Scott Lindsey; Noreen Schwein; William Marosi; Edwin Welles

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis  

SciTech Connect

This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.

Cazalet, E.G.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

that are fit for their purpose; for example, returningaggregate county and sector forecasts that are consistent by construction....

Satchell, Stephen E; Wright, Stephen M

2006-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

282

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

283

Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...

2013-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

284

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

285

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

286

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

287

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

288

Load forecast and treatment of conservation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservation in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast

289

FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs

290

STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 report, Staff Forecast: Retail Electricity Prices, 2005 to 2018, was prepared with contributions from the technical assistance provided by Greg Broeking of R.W. Beck, Inc. in preparing retail price forecasts

291

Blue Chip Consensus US GDP Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and metro area from Moody’s Economy.com Equivalent to US-level Gross Domestic Product ? The GMP forecasts have a large impact on the peak load forecasts Rule of thumb: 1 % growth in RTO GMP ? approx. 1,000 MW growth in forecast RTO peak load

James F. Wilson

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

293

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used

294

Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity 29, 2012 Preliminary Results of the Electricity Price Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity market price forecast. A summary of the work

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

295

Depositional sequences and integrated recovery efficiency forecast models for San Andres and Clearfork Units in the Central Basin Platform and the Northern Shelf, west Texas  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops depositional sequences of the carbonate ramp and the carbonate shelf models for an idealized cycle and multiple cycles of depositions. Based on the developed depositional sequences, the integrated recovery efficiency forecast models of primary, initial waterflood and infill drilling are developed for the San Andres and Clearfork reservoirs in Central Basin Platform and the Northern Shelf, west Texas. The geological parameters and well spacing are considered major factors for controlling recovery efficiencies. The depositional environment and diagenesis are controlling geological factors affecting oil recovery efficiencies. The depositional sequences characterize the vertical and lateral variations of depositional-energy environments in development of the carbonate ramp and the carbonate shelf The depositional-energy environment controls the depositional rock's facies. The well-sorted and large-size grainstones are related to the higher depositional-energy environment. The poorly-sorted and small-size rocks are related to the lower depositional-energy environment. The depositions of the San Andres and Clearfork formation in the Central Basin Platform, separately, follow the prograding-ramp sequences of one major cycle with multiple subcycles. The lumping depositional energy increases from the inner platform to the platform boundary. Similarly, the depositions of San Andres and Clearfork formation in the Northern Shelf also follow one major prograding cycle with multiple subcycles, separately. However, the lumping depositional energy, decreases from the inner platform to the platform boundary. A normalized depositional energy index is defined based on the depositional sequences of the ramp and shelf models. Normalization is also used to define a porosity index and a well spacing index. Linear and exponential regressions on a database are conducted to develop recovery efficiency forecast models which include depositional energy, porosity and well spacing indices. Section 17, Dollarhide Clearfork Unit is used as an example to show the applications of the recovery efficiency forecast models.

Shao, Hongbin

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

Odds Ratio Forecasts Increase Precautionary Action for Extreme Weather Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

What is the best way to communicate the risk of rare but extreme weather to the public? One suggestion is to communicate the relative risk of extreme weather in the form of odds ratios; but, to the authors’ knowledge, this suggestion has never ...

Jared LeClerc; Susan Joslyn

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

298

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

299

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach can forecast the price of a notebook computer up to four months in advance of its introduction with an average error of under 10% and the rate of price erosion to within 10% of the price for seven months after introduction-the length of the typical life cycle of a notebook. Since all data are publicly available, this approach can be used to assist managerial decision making in the notebook computer industry, for example, in determining when and how to upgrade a model and when to introduce a new model.

Rutherford, Derek Paul

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

Short term wind speed forecasting with evolved neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Concerns about climate change, energy security and the volatility of the price of fossil fuels has led to an increased demand for renewable energy. With wind turbines being one of the most mature renewable energy technologies available, the global use ... Keywords: forecasting, renewable energy, wind-speed

David Corne; Alan Reynolds; Stuart Galloway; Edward Owens; Andrew Peacock

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.

2001-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

302

Severe Local Storms Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Knowledge of severe local storms has been increasing rapidly in recent years as a result of both observational studies and numerical modeling experiments. This paper reviews that knowledge as it relates to development of new applications for ...

Robert H. Johns; Charles A. Doswell III

1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

Carbon Films Produced from Ionic Liquid Precursors  

• The global market for Membrane Separation Technologies is forecast to reach US $16 billion by the year 2017, driven by the increasing

304

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II uses the method of structural factor analysis to study the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in a data rich environment. I propose two structural factor models. One is the structural factor augmented vector autoregressive (SFAVAR) model and the other is the structural factor vector autoregressive (SFVAR) model. Compared to the traditional vector autogression (VAR) model, both models incorporate far more information from hundreds of data series, series that can be and are monitored by the Central Bank. Moreover, the factors used are structurally meaningful, a feature that adds to the understanding of the �black box� of the monetary transmission mechanism. Both models generate qualitatively reasonable impulse response functions. Using the SFVAR model, both the �price puzzle� and the �liquidity puzzle� are eliminated. Chapter III employs the method of structural factor analysis to conduct a forecasting exercise in a data rich environment. I simulate out-of-sample real time forecasting using a structural dynamic factor forecasting model and its variations. I use several structural factors to summarize the information from a large set of candidate explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)�s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor forecasting models compared to alternatives that include univariate autoregression (AR) model, the VAR model and Stock and Watson�s (2002) models, especially when forecasting real variables. In chapter IV, we measure U.S. technology shocks by implementing a dual approach, which is based on more reliable price data instead of aggregate quantity data. By doing so, we find the relative volatility of technology shocks and the correlation between output fluctuation and technology shocks to be much smaller than those revealed in most real-business-cycle (RBC) studies. Our results support the findings of Burnside, Eichenbaum and Rebelo (1996), who showed that the correlation between technology shocks and output is exaggerated in the RBC literature. This suggests that one should examine other sources of fluctuations for a better understanding of the business cycle phenomena.

Liu, Dandan

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center on 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 36. Increase in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country, 2002-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data

306

An Immersed Boundary Method for the Weather Research and Forecasting Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes an immersed boundary method that facilitates the explicit resolution of complex terrain within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Mesoscale models, such as WRF, are increasingly used for high-resolution ...

Katherine A. Lundquist; Fotini Katopodes Chow; Julie K. Lundquist

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

Boater Safety: Communicating Weather Forecast Information to High-Stakes End Users  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Recreational boaters in the Pacific Northwest understand that there is uncertainty inherent in deterministic forecasts as well as some of the factors that increase uncertainty. This was determined in an online survey of 166 boaters in the Puget ...

Sonia Savelli; Susan Joslyn

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Rangeland-Based Livestock Operations in West Texas  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The potential for west Texas ranchers to increase the profitability of their enterprises by becoming more proactive in their management practices by using seasonal climate forecasts is investigated using a focus group and ecological–economic ...

Kristi G. Jochec; James W. Mjelde; Andrew C. Lee; J. Richard Conner

2001-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

Subgrid Scale Physics in 1-Month Forecasts. Part I: Experiment with Four Parameterization Packages  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Four packages of subgrid scale (SGS) physics parameterization are tested by including them in a general circulation model and by applying the four models to 1-month forecasts. The four models are formulated by accumulatively increasing the ...

J. Sirutis; K. Miyakoda

1990-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

ib:12-07-a Closer than You Think: Latest U.S. CO 2 Pollution Data and Forecasts Show Target Within Reach  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

How about a little good news for a change? Despite Congress ’ failure to enact comprehensive energy and climate legislation, surprising, and underappreciated, progress has been made in reducing U.S. carbon dioxide emissions during the last few years. In 2011 U.S. emissions of energy-related carbon dioxide were 8.7 percent below 2005 levels despite a 5.5 percent increase in the size of our economy. This remarkable result is due primarily to reduced reliance on coal-fired power plants and increased passenger vehicle efficiency, driven by a combination of policy and market forces. The forecast for 2020, assuming extensions to existing policies that can be reasonably anticipated, is for a further reduction to 10.5 percent below 2005 levels. This contrasts sharply with the forecast made by the Energy Information Agency 7 years ago that emissions would increase by 25 percent between then and 2020, and it puts the 17 percent reduction target embraced by President Obama squarely within reach. Recent Trends U.S. energy-related CO 2 emissions were 5473 million metric

Dan Lashof

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document represents the progress report and Task 1 letter report of the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) contract funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC), Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF) for California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Planning Phase. Task 1 was to accomplish the following items: Collect data from CAISO to set up the WECC power flow base case representing the CAISO system in the summer of 2006 Run TRACE for maximizing California Impo...

2006-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

312

Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

313

Meese-Rogoff redux: Micro-based exchange-rate forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Johnatban. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We'veBased Exchange-Rate Forecasting By MARTIN D . D . EVANS ANDon longer-horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over

Evans, MDD; Lyons, Richard K.

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasters,” Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 28, No. 2, Mar,of Macroeconomic Forecasting” Journal of Macroeconomics,of Federal Reserve Forecasting,” Journal of Macroeconomics,

Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and V. Letschert (2005). Forecasting Electricity Demand in8364 Material World: Forecasting Household ApplianceMcNeil, 2008). Forecasting Diffusion Forecasting Variables

Letschert, Virginie

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

316

Recent Climate-Driven Increases in Vegetation Productivity for the Western Arctic: Evidence of an Acceleration of the Northern Terrestrial Carbon Cycle  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Northern ecosystems contain much of the global reservoir of terrestrial carbon that is potentially reactive in the context of near-term climate change. Annual variability and recent trends in vegetation productivity across Alaska and northwest ...

J. S. Kimball; M. Zhao; A. D. McGuire; F. A. Heinsch; J. Clein; M. Calef; W. M. Jolly; S. Kang; S. E. Euskirchen; K. C. McDonald; S. W. Running

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

318

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2000 NEW JERSEY of growth will decelerate over the forecast period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey in 2000 looks to decelerate over the course of the forecast. These forces will combine to push the unemployment rate to more

319

Mathematical and computer modelling reports: Modeling and forecasting energy markets with the intermediate future forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the ...

Frederic H. Murphy; John J. Conti; Susan H. Shaw; Reginald Sanders

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using one- to seven-day ensemble forecasts of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

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While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
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to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Using National Air Quality Forecast Guidance to Develop Local Air Quality Index Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) currently provides next-day forecasts of ozone concentrations over the contiguous United States. It was developed collaboratively by NOAA and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in order to ...

Brian Eder; Daiwen Kang; S. Trivikrama Rao; Rohit Mathur; Shaocai Yu; Tanya Otte; Ken Schere; Richard Wayland; Scott Jackson; Paula Davidson; Jeff McQueen; George Bridgers

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest evaluated the skill of ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Daniel S. Wilks

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Evaluating the propagation of errors associated with ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) into the ensemble streamflow response is important to reduce uncertainty in operational flow forecasting. In this paper, a multifractal ...

Giuseppe Mascaro; Enrique R. Vivoni; Roberto Deidda

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system obtained ...

David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

The Impact of Writing Area Forecast Discussions on Student Forecaster Performance  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A brief study is provided on the forecast performance of students who write a mock area forecast discussion (AFD) on a weekly basis. Student performance was tracked for one semester (11 weeks) during the University of Missouri—Columbia's local ...

Patrick S. Market

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...

Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

328

Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for water resources planning and management as well as for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. In this study, operational streamflow forecasts are ...

A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Susan Espinueva

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work examines the performance of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEP’s coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in near–real time. ...

Kyong-Hwan Seo; Wanqiu Wang; Jon Gottschalck; Qin Zhang; Jae-Kyung E. Schemm; Wayne R. Higgins; Arun Kumar

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

330

Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

Further Evaluation of the National Meterological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model Precpitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated ...

John O. Roads; T. Norman Maisal; Jordan Alpert

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability? M. Hashem Pesaran University of Cambridge, CIMF, and USC Andreas Pick University of Cambridge, CIMF March 11, 2008 Abstract This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used... but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single...

Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

333

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion

334

Solar future: 1978. [Market forecast to 1992  

SciTech Connect

The growth in sales of solar heating equipment is discussed. Some forecasts are made for the continued market growth of collectors, pool systems, and photovoltaics. (MOW)

Butt, S.H.

1978-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Energy conservation and official UK energy forecasts  

SciTech Connect

Behind the latest United Kingdom (UK) official forecasts of energy demand are implicit assumptions about future energy-price elasticities. Mr. Pearce examines the basis of the forecasts and finds that the long-term energy-price elasticities that they imply are two or three times too low. The official forecasts substantially understate the responsiveness of demand to energy price rises. If more-realistic price elasticities were assumed, the official forecasts would imply a zero primary energy-demand growth to 2000. This raises the interesting possibility of a low energy future being brought about entirely by market forces. 15 references, 3 tables.

Pearce, D.

1980-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

338

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past Santa Fe Institute Proceedings on the Studies in the Sciences of ...

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

339

Rolling 12 Month Forecast November-2008.xls  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Month Exceedence Level: 90% (Dry) First Preference CVP Generation Project Use November 2008 October 2009 November 2008 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource...

340

Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

Koottatep, Pakawkul

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract--In deregulated electricity markets, short-term load forecasting is important for reliable power322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting presents a similar day-based wavelet neural network method to forecast tomorrow's load. The idea

Tesfatsion, Leigh

342

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets MISO NYISO PJM ERCOT CAISO Peak load 109,157 MW (7 ........................................................................................... 18 4 WIND POWER FORECASTING AND ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATIONS............................................................ 18 4-1 Market Operation and Wind Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets .......... 21 #12

Kemner, Ken

343

The role of ICTs in downscaling and up-scaling integrated weather forecasts for farmers in sub-Saharan Africa  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite global advancements in technology and inter-trade volumes, Sub-Saharan Africa is the only Region where cases of hunger have increased since 1990. Rampant and frequent droughts are one of the major causes of this. Monumental and mostly donor-funded ... Keywords: Nganyi clan of western Kenya, indigenous knowledge weather forecasts, seasonal climate forecasts, sub-Saharan Africa, wireless sensor networks

Muthoni Masinde; Antoine Bagula; Nzioka J. Muthama

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

344

Economic impact evaluation of short-term load forecast errors using a mutative scale chaos optimization algorithm  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Under the circumstances of Power Market, load forecast errors directly lead to the increase of costs of dispatch and maintenance. With a mutative scale chaos optimization algorithm (MSCOA), and the next-day units bidding model as the valuation model ... Keywords: MSCOA, load forecast error, power market

Jiang Chuanwen; Li Shuai; Wang Chengmin

2005-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

346

Forecasting during the Lake-ICE/SNOWBANDS Field Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite improvements in numerical weather prediction models, statistical models, forecast decision trees, and forecasting rules of thumb, human interpretation of meteorological information for a particular forecast situation can still yield a ...

Peter J. Sousounis; Greg E. Mann; George S. Young; Richard B. Wagenmaker; Bradley D. Hoggatt; William J. Badini

1999-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-...

Stanley A. Changnon; Joyce M. Changnon; David Changnon

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Forecasting and Verifying in a Field Research Project: DOPLIGHT '87  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Verification of forecasts during research field experiments is discussed and exemplified using the DOPLIGHT '87 experiment. We stress the importance of forecast verification if forecasting is to be a serious component of the research. A direct ...

Charles A. Doswell III; John A. Flueck

1989-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

A Probabilistic Forecast Approach for Daily Precipitation Totals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Commonly, postprocessing techniques are employed to calibrate a model forecast. Here, a probabilistic postprocessor is presented that provides calibrated probability and quantile forecasts of precipitation on the local scale. The forecasts are ...

Petra Friederichs; Andreas Hense

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The role of the human forecaster in improving upon the accuracy of numerical weather prediction is explored using multi-year verification of human-generated short-range precipitation forecasts and medium-range maximum temperature forecasts from ...

David R. Novak; Christopher Bailey; Keith Brill; Patrick Burke; Wallace Hogsett; Robert Rausch; Michael Schichtel

351

Prediction of Consensus Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The extent to which the tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast error of a consensus model (CONU) routinely used by the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center can be predicted is determined. A number of predictors of consensus forecast error, ...

James S. Goerss

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

An Experiment in Mesoscale Weather Forecasting in the Michigan Area  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During an experiment in mesoscale weather forecasting in the Michigan area, consensus improved over NWS guidance in maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation forecasts out to 24 hours. Forecasts were generally best in the ...

Dennis G. Baker

1986-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration that is applied to ...

Yuejian Zhu; Zoltan Toth; Richard Wobus; David Richardson; Kenneth Mylne

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

An Alternative Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Verification Technique  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts are included in a ...

Sim D. Aberson

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

355

On the Reliability and Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An important aspect of ensemble forecasting is that the resulting probabilities are reliable (i.e., the forecast probabilities match the observed frequencies). In the medium-range forecasting context, the literature tends to focus on the ...

Christine Johnson; Neill Bowler

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a long-standing aim in meteorological forecasting. This paper explains the ...

Jochen Bröcker; Leonard A. Smith

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

Experiments in Temperature and Precipitation Forecasting for Illinois  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Six years of daily temperature and precipitation forecasting are studied for Urbana, Illinois. Minimum temperature forecast skills, measured against a climatological control, are 57%, 48%, 34% and 20% for the respective forecast ranges of one, ...

John R. Gyakum

1986-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

358

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the entire forecast period, primarily because both weather-adjusted peak and electricity consumption were forecast. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather normalization, annual peak demand, natural gas demand, self-generation, conservation, California Solar Initiative. #12

359

Regional load-curve models: scenario and forecast using the DRI model. Final report. [Forecasts of electric power loads in 32 US regions  

SciTech Connect

Regional load curve models were constructed for 32 regions that have been created by aggregating hourly load data from 146 electric utilities. These utilities supply approximately 95% of the electricity consumed in the continental US. The 32 models forecast electricity demands by hour, 8784 regional load forecasts per year. Because projections are made for each hour in the year, contemporaneous forecasts are available for peak demands, megawatt hour demands, load factors, load duration curves, and typical load shapes. The forecast scenario is described and documented in this volume and the forecast resulting from the use of this scenario is presented. The highlights of this forecast are two observations: (1) peak demands will once again become winter phenomena. By the year 2000, 18 of the 32 regions peak in a winter month as compared with the 8 winter peaking regions in 1977. In the heating season, the model is responsive to the number of heating degree-hours, the penetration rate of electric heating equipment, and the rate at which this space conditioning equipment is utilized, which itself is functionally dependent on the level of real electricity prices and real incomes. Thus, as the penetration rate of electric heating equipment increases, winter season demands grow more rapidly than demands in other seasons and peaks begin to appear in winter months; and (2) load factors begin to increase in the forecast, reversing the trend which began in the early 1960s. Nationally, load factors do not leap upwards, instead they increase gradually from .609 in 1977 to .629 in the year 2000. The improvement is more consequential in some regions, with load factors increasing, at times, by .10 or more. In some regions, load factors continue to decline.

Platt, H.D.

1981-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

360

forecasts  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 106. Average annual minemouth coal prices by region, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per million Btu) Appalachia Interior West US Average

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Possibility of Skill Forecast Based on the Finite-Time Dominant Linear Solutions for a Primitive Equation Regional Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The possibility of using forecast errors originating from the finite-time dominant linear modes for the prediction of forecast skill for a primitive equation regional forecast model is studied. This is similar to the method for skill prediction ...

Tomislava Vuki?evi?

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

362

Blasting Vibration Forecast Base on Neural Network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The influence of blasting vibration to surroundings around the blasting area can not be ignored, in order to guarantee the safety of surroundings around blasting area, blasting vibration forecasting model based on neural network is established by improved ... Keywords: Blasting vibration, Neural network, Forecast

Haiwang Ye; Fang Liu; Jian Chang; Lin Feng; Yang Wang; Peng Yao; Kai Wu

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

Evaluating the Skill of Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A generalized skill score is presented for evaluating forecasts in any number of categories. Each forecast in a sample is given a mark; the skill score for the sample is just the average mark. Each mark has an expected value of zero for an ...

Neil D. Gordon

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

Making Forecasts and Weather Normalization Work Together  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Electric utility industry restructuring has changed the consistency between weather-normalized sales and energy forecasts. This Technology Review discusses the feasibility of integrating weather normalization and forecasting processes, and addresses whether the conflicting goal of obtaining greater consistency and accuracy with fewer staff resources can be met with more integrated approaches.

2000-09-11T23:59:59.000Z

365

Forecasting demand of commodities after natural disasters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Demand forecasting after natural disasters is especially important in emergency management. However, since the time series of commodities demand after natural disasters usually has a great deal of nonlinearity and irregularity, it has poor prediction ... Keywords: ARIMA, Demand forecasting, EMD, Emergency management, Natural disaster

Xiaoyan Xu; Yuqing Qi; Zhongsheng Hua

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled Reanalysis ...

Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; David Behringer; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-ya Chuang; Mark Iredell; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Malaquías Peña Mendez; Huug van den Dool; Qin Zhang; Wanqiu Wang; Mingyue Chen; Emily Becker

367

Efficient forecasting for hierarchical time series  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting is used as the basis for business planning in many application areas such as energy, sales and traffic management. Time series data used in these areas is often hierarchically organized and thus, aggregated along the hierarchy levels based ... Keywords: forecasting, hierarchies, optimization, time series

Lars Dannecker; Robert Lorenz; Philipp Rösch; Wolfgang Lehner; Gregor Hackenbroich

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

Time series forecasting with Qubit Neural Networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a quantum learning scheme approach for time series forecasting, through the application of the new non-standard Qubit Neural Network (QNN) model. The QNN description was adapted in this work in order to resemble classical Artificial ... Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, quantum computing, qubit neural networks, time series forecasting

Carlos R. B. Azevedo; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

Forecast of geothermal-drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are forecasted. Results of the forecast are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.

Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

370

Preemptive Forecasts Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) estimates the error statistics of a model forecast using an ensemble of model forecasts. One use of an EnKF is data assimilation, resulting in the creation of an increment to the first-guess field at the ...

Brian J. Etherton

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a distributed model that is in operational use for forecasting flash floods in northern Austria. The main challenge in developing the model was parameter identification which was addressed by a modelling strategy that involved a model ... Keywords: Distributed modelling, Dominant processes concept, Floods, Forecasting, Kalman Filter, Model accuracy, Parameter identification, Stream routing

Günter Blöschl; Christian Reszler; Jürgen Komma

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

Incentives for Retailer Forecasting: Rebates vs. Returns  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper studies a manufacturer that sells to a newsvendor retailer who can improve the quality of her demand information by exerting costly forecasting effort. In such a setting, contracts play two roles: providing incentives to influence the retailer's ... Keywords: endogenous adverse selection, forecasting, rebates, returns, supply chain contracting

Terry A. Taylor; Wenqiang Xiao

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy to someone by E-mail Share SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy...

374

New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering...

375

Exploiting Domain Knowledge to Forecast Heating Oil Consumption  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The GasDay laboratory at Marquette University provides forecasts of energy consumption. One such service is the Heating Oil Forecaster

George F. Corliss; Tsuginosuke Sakauchi; Steven R. Vitullo; Ronald H. Brown

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

376

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Alphabetically Tools by Platform PC Mac UNIX Internet Tools by Country Related Links Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides...

377

Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...

Ye, Quanzhi

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

378

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

A Short-Range Forecasting Experiment Conducted during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP), a dedicated forecast center conducted experiments in mesoscale forecasting. Several forecast products, including a marine forecast and a site-specific public forecast, were written every 3 h. ...

K. A. Macdonald; M. Danks; J. D. Abraham

1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

Global carbon emissions in the coming decades: the case of China  

SciTech Connect

China's annual energy-related carbon emissions surpassed those of the United States in 2006, years ahead of published international and Chinese forecasts. Why were forecasts so greatly in error and what drove the rapid growth of China's energy-related carbon emissions after 2001? The divergence between actual and forecasted carbon emissions underscores the rapid changes that have taken place in China's energy system since 2001. In order to build a more robust understanding of China's energy-related carbon emissions, this article reviews the role of economic restructuring, urbanization, coal dependence, international trade, and central government policies in driving emissions growth.

Levine, M.D.; Aderi, N.T. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States)

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

SciTech Connect

As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

2010-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

383

Decision support for financial forecasting  

SciTech Connect

A primary mission of the Budget Management Division of the Air Force is fiscal analysis. This involves formulating, justifying, and tracking financial data during budget preparation and execution. An essential requirement of this process is the ready availability and easy manipulation of past and current budget data. This necessitates the decentralization of the data. A prototypical system, BAFS (Budget Analysis and Forecasting System), that provides such a capability is presented. In its current state, the system is designed to be a decision support tool. A brief report of the budget decisions and activities is presented. The system structure and its major components are discussed. An insight into the implementation strategies and the tool used is provided. The paper concludes with a discussion of future enhancements and the system's evolution into an expert system. 4 refs., 3 figs.

Jairam, B.N.; Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hardee, H.K.

1988-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Construction Safety Forecast for ITER  

SciTech Connect

The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project is poised to begin its construction activity. This paper gives an estimate of construction safety as if the experiment was being built in the United States. This estimate of construction injuries and potential fatalities serves as a useful forecast of what can be expected for construction of such a major facility in any country. These data should be considered by the ITER International Team as it plans for safety during the construction phase. Based on average U.S. construction rates, ITER may expect a lost workday case rate of < 4.0 and a fatality count of 0.5 to 0.9 persons per year.

cadwallader, lee charles

2006-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

MSSM Forecast for the LHC  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on $e^+e^-$ data) is considered, the preferred region (for $\\mu>0$) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-$\\mu$ possibilities.

Maria Eugenia Cabrera; Alberto Casas; Roberto Ruiz de Austri

2009-11-24T23:59:59.000Z

386

Forecasting future volatility from option prices, Working  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Weisbach are gratefully acknowledged. I bear full responsibility for all remaining errors. Forecasting Future Volatility from Option Prices Evidence exists that option prices produce biased forecasts of future volatility across a wide variety of options markets. This paper presents two main results. First, approximately half of the forecasting bias in the S&P 500 index (SPX) options market is eliminated by constructing measures of realized volatility from five minute observations on SPX futures rather than from daily closing SPX levels. Second, much of the remaining forecasting bias is eliminated by employing an option pricing model that permits a non-zero market price of volatility risk. It is widely believed that option prices provide the best forecasts of the future volatility of the assets which underlie them. One reason for this belief is that option prices have the ability to impound all publicly available information – including all information contained in the history of past prices – about the future volatility of the underlying assets. A second related reason is that option pricing theory maintains that if an option prices fails to embody optimal forecasts of the future volatility of the underlying asset, a profitable trading strategy should be available whose implementation would push the option price to the level that reflects the best possible forecast of future volatility.

Allen M. Poteshman

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Heterogeneous Shallow-Shelf Carbonate Buildups in the Paradox Basin, Utah and Colorado: Targets for Increased Oil Production and Reserves Using Horizontal Drilling Techniques  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Paradox Basin of Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico contains nearly 100 small oil fields producing from carbonate buildups within the Pennsylvanian (Desmoinesian) Paradox Formation. These fields typically have one to 10 wells with primary production ranging from 700,000 to 2,000,000 barrels (111,300-318,000 m{sup 3}) of oil per field and a 15 to 20 percent recovery rate. At least 200 million barrels (31.8 million m{sup 3}) of oil will not be recovered from these small fields because of inefficient recovery practices and undrained heterogeneous reservoirs. Several fields in southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado are being evaluated as candidates for horizontal drilling and enhanced oil recovery from existing vertical wells based upon geological characterization and reservoir modeling case studies. Geological characterization on a local scale is focused on reservoir heterogeneity, quality, and lateral continuity, as well as possible reservoir compartmentalization, within these fields. This study utilizes representative cores, geophysical logs, and thin sections to characterize and grade each field's potential for drilling horizontal laterals from existing development wells. The results of these studies can be applied to similar fields elsewhere in the Paradox Basin and the Rocky Mountain region, the Michigan and Illinois Basins, and the Midcontinent region. This report covers research activities for the first half of the fourth project year (April 6 through October 5, 2003). The work included (1) analysis of well-test data and oil production from Cherokee and Bug fields, San Juan County, Utah, and (2) diagenetic evaluation of stable isotopes from the upper Ismay and lower Desert Creek zones of the Paradox Formation in the Blanding sub-basin, Utah. Production ''sweet spots'' and potential horizontal drilling candidates were identified for Cherokee and Bug fields. In Cherokee field, the most productive wells are located in the thickest part of the mound facies of the upper Ismay zone, where microporosity is well developed. In Bug field, the most productive wells are located structurally downdip from the updip porosity pinch out in the dolomitized lower Desert Creek zone, where micro-box-work porosity is well developed. Microporosity and micro-box-work porosity have the greatest hydrocarbon storage and flow capacity, and potential horizontal drilling target in these fields. Diagenesis is the main control on the quality of Ismay and Desert Creek reservoirs. Most of the carbonates present within the lower Desert Creek and Ismay have retained a marine-influenced carbon isotope geochemistry throughout marine cementation as well as through post-burial recycling of marine carbonate components during dolomitization, stylolitization, dissolution, and late cementation. Meteoric waters do not appear to have had any effect on the composition of the dolomites in these zones. Light oxygen values obtained from reservoir samples for wells located along the margins or flanks of Bug field may be indicative of exposure to higher temperatures, to fluids depleted in {sup 18}O relative to sea water, or to hypersaline waters during burial diagenesis. The samples from Bug field with the lightest oxygen isotope compositions are from wells that have produced significantly greater amounts of hydrocarbons. There is no significant difference between the oxygen isotope compositions from lower Desert Creek dolomite samples in Bug field and the upper Ismay limestones and dolomites from Cherokee field. Carbon isotopic compositions for samples from Patterson Canyon field can be divided into two populations: isotopically heavier mound cement and isotopically lighter oolite and banded cement. Technology transfer activities consisted of exhibiting a booth display of project materials at the annual national convention of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, a technical presentation, a core workshop, and publications. The project home page was updated on the Utah Geological Survey Internet web site.

Thomas C. Chidsey; Kevin McClure; Craig D. Morgan

2003-10-05T23:59:59.000Z

388

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

Forecast Bias Correction: A Second Order Method  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The difference between a model forecast and actual observations is called forecast bias. This bias is due to either incomplete model assumptions and/or poorly known parameter values and initial/boundary conditions. In this paper we discuss a method for estimating corrections to parameters and initial conditions that would account for the forecast bias. A set of simple experiments with the logistic ordinary differential equation is performed using an iterative version of a first order version of our method to compare with the second order version of the method.

Crowell, Sean

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

Industrial production index forecast: Methods comparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this work is to investigate the suitability of different methods as short term forecast tools. It is studied and compared the application of the Kalman filter method with other forecasting methods when applied to a set of qualitative and quantitative information. The work data set is made of qualitative surveys of conjunture and the industrial production index (IPI). The objective is the attainment of short term forecast models for the Portuguese IPI of the transforming industry. After the previous treatment of the data

M. Filomena Teodoro

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy Criteria for Technical forecasts of monsoon can significantly aid many sectors like agriculture, power and production industries to the operational forecast, to develop and deliver customized monsoon forecasts based on user need is required

Swathi, P S

392

Short-term streamflow forecasting: ARIMA vs neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Streamflow forecasting is very important for water resources management and flood defence. In this paper two forecasting methods are compared: ARIMA versus a multilayer perceptron neural network. This comparison is done by forecasting a streamflow of ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, auto regressive integrated moving average, forecasting, streamflow

Juan Frausto-Solis; Esmeralda Pita; Javier Lagunas

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Optimal Updating of Forecasts for the Timing of Future Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A major problem in forecasting is estimating the time of some future event. traditionally, forecasts are designed to minimize an error cost function that is evaluated once, possibly when the event occurs and forecast accuracy can be determined. However, ... Keywords: Air Transportation, Dynamic Programming Applications, Forecasting

Juhwen Hwang; Medini R. Singh; W. J. Hurley; Robert A. Shumsky

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand prepared the residential sector forecast. Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Lynn

396

R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1999 NEW and wage growth slow later in the forecast, income growth will average 5% a year between 2000 and 2004. Over the forecast period, population growth will average 0.5% a year. The population will rise from 8

397

R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2001 NEW JERSEY each year. The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey looks for growth in real output of 2.6 percent years. Over the forecast period, both the construction and manufacturing sectors will lose jobs

398

R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2001 NEW JERSEY and 2005, and by an average of 43,000 thereafter (from 2005 to 2020). The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey.6 percent a year over the rest of the forecast period. Personal income will rise 5.6 percent this year, down

399

R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 1999 NEW JERSEY the rate of inflation should remain under 3% a year. (See Table 1.) #12;Throughout the forecast period and wage growth slow later in the forecast period, income growth will average 4.8% a year between 2000

400

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA or adequacy of the information in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast forecast. Bryan Alcorn and Mehrzad Soltani Nia prepared the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia- Cerrutti

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1998 NEW 1997 will continue-- though at a reduced rate--through the forecast period that ends in 2001. New inflation of about 1.5%. In 1998, R/ECONTM forecasts that employment will rise by 76,000 jobs, or 2

402

R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 2000 NEW JERSEY and 2002, with 84,800 jobs being added over the two-year period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey the rest of the forecast period as foreign immigration declines and the population ages. In the next 10

403

R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuation of the current expansion but at a somewhat slower pace in employment through the forecast period will be in services and trade. We also expect considerable growth

404

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast, the uncertainty of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity data due to the chaotic dynamics of the atmosphere is the salient reason for errors

Ross, Shane

405

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations

Kim, Kiho

406

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT OF USING FORECASTS Mohamed Zied Ch^atenay-Malabry Cedex, France Abstract: In this paper, we analyze forecast based inventory control policies for a non-stationary demand. We assume that forecasts and the associated uncertainties are given

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

407

Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting Jingtao YAO Chew Lim@comp.nus.edu.sg Abstract Goodness­of­fit is the most popular criterion for neural network time series forecasting. In the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit

Yao, JingTao

408

A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting JingTao YAO Dept of Information on goodness-of-fit which is also the most popular criterion forecasting. How ever, in the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit their target. In order

Yao, JingTao

409

A new class of hybrid models for time series forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Applying quantitative models for forecasting and assisting investment decision making has become more indispensable in business practices than ever before. Improving forecasting especially time series forecasting accuracy is an important yet often difficult ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks (ANNs), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Hybrid models, Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs), Time series forecasting

Mehdi Khashei; Mehdi Bijari

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

Update On The Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast & Modeling Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Base Case includes § Medium Demand Forecast § Medium Natural Gas Price Forecast § Federal CO2 Rathdrum Power LLC-ID 4) CO2 Emissions - 2009 Selected Natural Gas Plants Plant level, emission percentage § Significantly lower electricity prices than 6th Plan Forecast, due to lower demand, lower gas prices, deferred

411

RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

or over predicting electricity demand due to poor weather forecasts is several hundred million dollars outages that many in the area experienced. Deep Thunder can also improve generation-side load forecasting by providing high-resolution weather forecast data for use in electricity demand forecast models. Integrating

Manry, Michael

412

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

413

A Framework of Incorporating Spatio-temporal Forecast in Look-ahead Grid Dispatch with Photovoltaic Generation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Increasing penetration of stochastic photovoltaic (PV) generation into the electric power system poses significant challenges to system operators. In the thesis, we evaluate the spatial and temporal correlations of stochastic PV generation at multiple sites. Given the unique spatial and temporal correlation of PV generation, an optimal data-driven forecast model for short-term PV power is proposed. This model leverages both spatial and temporal correlations among neighboring solar sites, and is shown to have improved performance compared with conventional persistent model. The tradeoff between communication cost and improved forecast quality is studied using realistic data sets collected from California and Colorado. n IEEE 14 bus system test case is used to quantify the value of improved forecast quality through the reduction of system dispatch cost. The Modified spatio-temporal forecast model which has the least forecast PV overestimate percentage shows the best performance in the dispatch cost reduction.

Yang, Chen

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

Low Carbon Fuel Standards  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

land-use changes. When biofuel production increases, land ison carbon releases. If biofuel production does not result in

Sperling, Dan; Yeh, Sonia

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

New results in forecasting of photovoltaic systems output based on solar radiation forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate short term forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) systems output has a great significance for fast development of PV parks in South-East Europe

Laurentiu Fara

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) ABSTRACT This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the SolarAnywhere platform. The models include satellite derived cloud motion based forecasts for the short to medium horizon (1 5 hours) and forecasts derived from NOAA

Perez, Richard R.

417

How Do Forecasters Utilize Output From A Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecast System? Case Study Of A High-Impact Precipitation Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The proliferation of ensemble forecast system output in recent years motivates this investigation into how operational forecasters utilize convection-permitting ensemble forecast system guidance in the forecast preparation process. A sixteen-...

Clark Evans; Donald F. Van Dyke; Todd Lericos

418

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

419

Artificial Skill and Validation in Meteorological Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a simulation study of multiple regression prediction models for meteorological forecasting are reported. The effects of sample size, amount, and severity of nonrepresentative data in the population, inclusion of noninformative ...

Paul W. Mielke Jr.; Kenneth J. Berry; Christopher W. Landsea; William M. Gray

1996-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

Skill of Multimodel ENSO Probability Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The cross-validated hindcast skills of various multimodel ensemble combination strategies are compared for probabilistic predictions of monthly SST anomalies in the ENSO-related Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Forecast data from ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Assessing Forecast Skill through Cross Validation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explains the method of cross validation for assessing forecast skill of empirical prediction models. Cross validation provides a relatively accurate measure of an empirical procedure's ability to produce a useful prediction rule from a ...

J. B. Elsner; C. P. Schmertmann

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

423

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

424

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

425

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

426

Dynamical Properties of Model Output Statistics Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The dynamical properties of forecasts corrected using model output statistics (MOS) schemes are explored, with emphasis on the respective role of model and initial condition uncertainties. Analytical and numerical investigations of low-order ...

S. Vannitsem; C. Nicolis

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

Scientific Verification of Deterministic River Stage Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One element of a complete verification system is the ability to determine why forecasts behave as they do. This paper describes and demonstrates an operationally feasible method for conducting this type of diagnostic verification analysis. ...

Edwin Welles; Soroosh Sorooshian

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

428

River flow forecasting with constructive neural network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In utilities using a mixture of hydroelectric and non-hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend upon the reservoir height and the inflow into the reservoir for several months into the future. Accurate forecasts of reservoir ...

Mêuser Valença; Teresa Ludermir; Anelle Valença

2005-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

429

Forecast verification: Its Complexity and Dimensionality  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Two fundamental characteristics of forecast verification problems—complexity and dimensionality—are described. To develop quantitative definitions of these characteristics, a general framework for the problem of absolute verification (AV) is ...

Allan H. Murphy

1991-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

Consensus Forecasts of Modeled Wave Parameters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The use of numerical guidance has become integral to the process of modern weather forecasting. Using various techniques, postprocessing of numerical model output has been shown to mitigate some of the deficiencies of these models, producing more ...

Tom H. Durrant; Frank Woodcock; Diana J. M. Greenslade

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Spread Calibration of Ensemble MOS Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble forecasting systems often contain systematic biases and spread deficiencies that can be corrected by statistical postprocessing. This study presents an improvement to an ensemble statistical postprocessing technique, called ensemble ...

Bruce A. Veenhuis

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

432

Snowfall Limit Forecasts and Hydrological Modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Hydrological flood forecasting in mountainous areas requires accurate partitioning between rain and snowfall to properly estimate the extent of runoff contributing areas. Here a method to make use of snowfall limit information—a standard output of ...

Cara Tobin; Andrea Rinaldo; Bettina Schaefli

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

433

Ensemble Forecast of a Typhoon Flood Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A high-resolution nested regional spectral model and an ensemble prediction system are combined to forecast the track, intensity, and flooding precipitation arising from Typhoon Winnie of August 1997, which eventually reached supertyphoon status. ...

Brian P. Mackey; T. N. Krishnamurti

2001-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a recently developed hurricane ...

Kerry Emanuel; Fabian Fondriest; James Kossin

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Airborne Volcanic Ash Forecast Area Reliability  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In support of aircraft flight safety operations, daily comparisons between modeled, hypothetical, volcanic ash plumes calculated with meteorological forecasts and analyses were made over a 1.5-yr period. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian ...

Barbara J. B. Stunder; Jerome L. Heffter; Roland R. Draxler

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

436

The ENIAC Forecasts: A Re-creation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The numerical forecasts made in 1950 using the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC) paved the way for the remarkable advances that have been made over the past half-century in weather prediction and climate modeling. We review the ...

Peter Lynch

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

437

NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) numerical seasonal forecast system is described in detail. The new system is aimed at a next-generation numerical seasonal prediction in which focus is placed on land processes, initial ...

Masao Kanamitsu; Arun Kumar; Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Jae-Kyung Schemm; Wanqui Wang; Fanglin Yang; Song-You Hong; Peitao Peng; Wilber Chen; Shrinivas Moorthi; Ming Ji

2002-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

438

Computer Generation of Marine Weather Forecast Text  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

MARWORDS is a natural language text generation system which has been developed to synthesize marine forecasts for the Davis Strait area in Northern Canada. It uses standard manually produced predictions of wind speed, air temperature, and other ...

E. Goldberg; R. Kittredge; A. Polguère

1988-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Forecast U.S. Distillate Stocks  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

EIA is not projecting a large recovery over the summer, but because refineries are forecast to run at high utilization rates, they may produce more distillate than expected and...

440

EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be lower this summer than previously thought. The price for regular gasoline this summer is now...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Visualizing Multiple Measures of Forecast Quality  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method for visually representing multiple measures of dichotomous (yes–no) forecast quality (probability of detection, false alarm ratio, bias, and critical success index) in a single diagram is presented. Illustration of the method is provided ...

Paul J. Roebber

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Using Climate Forecasts for Drought Management  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Drought hazards, and the ability to mitigate them with advance warning, offer potentially valuable applications of climate forecast products. Yet the value is often untapped, owing to the gap between climate science and societal decisions. This ...

Anne C. Steinemann

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

Assessing the Usefulness of Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The errors in both the initialization and simulated evolution of weather and climate models create significant uncertainties in forecasts at lead times beyond a few days. Modern prediction systems sample the sources of these uncertainties to ...

Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

444

An Objective Basis for Forecasting Tornado Intensity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Although violent tornadoes comprise only 2.3% of tornado occurrences in the United States, they cause 68% of the fatalities attributed to tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Despite these statistics, no attempt is made to forecast or warn of ...

J. R. Colquhoun; D. J. Shepherd

1989-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

When evaluating differences between competing precipitation forecasts, formal hypothesis testing is rarely performed. This may be due to the difficulty in applying common tests given the spatial correlation of and non-normality of errors. ...

Thomas M. Hamill

1999-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

446

MM5 Contrail Forecasting in Alaska  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is being used for forecasting the atmospheric layers of aircraft condensation trail (contrail) formation. Contrail ...

Martin Stuefer; Xiande Meng; Gerd Wendler

2005-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

Forecasting Resource Supply from Scarcity Rent Data  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasting Resource Supply from Scarcity Rent Data Speaker(s): Larry Dale Date: December 18, 2000 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar HostPoint of Contact: Diana Morris This talk...

448

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P. [Dept. of Civil Eng., NIT, Silchar (India)

2010-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

449

Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...

Edward C. Johnston

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

450

Optimization of Value of Aerodrome Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Prediction of short-term variations of vital boundary layer conditions at airports, such as visibility and cloud base, is important to the safe and economic operation of airlines. Results of an experiment involving groups of forecasters at three ...

Ross Keith

2003-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting: A Historical Perspective  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Techniques that have evolved during the hundred years that scientific severe thunderstorm forecasts have been prepared are reviewed. The early empirical rules developed by Finley, Showalter and Fulks, Fawbush, Miller and Starrett, and others have ...

Joseph T. Schaefer

1986-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Ceiling and Visibility Forecasts via Neural Networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Statistical postprocessing of numerical model output can improve forecast quality, especially when model output is combined with surface observations. In this article, the development of nonlinear postprocessors for the prediction of ceiling and ...

Caren Marzban; Stephen Leyton; Brad Colman

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

454

Economic Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Agriculture: Review of Ex-Ante Assessments and Recommendations for Future Research  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Advanced information in the form of seasonal climate forecasts has the potential to improve farmers’ decision making, leading to increases in farm profits. Interdisciplinary initiatives seeking to understand and exploit the potential benefits of ...

Francisco J. Meza; James W. Hansen; Daniel Osgood

2008-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system operation in terms of the efficiency of the system. The goal of this dissertation is to develop advanced statistical wind speed predictive models to reduce the uncertainties in wind, especially the short-term future wind speed. Moreover, a criterion is proposed to evaluate the performance of models. Cost reduction in power system operation, as proposed, is more realistic than prevalent criteria, such as, root mean square error (RMSE) and absolute mean error (MAE). Two advanced space-time statistical models are introduced for short-term wind speed forecasting. One is a modified regime-switching, space-time wind speed fore- casting model, which allows the forecast regimes to vary according to the dominant wind direction and seasons. Thus, it avoids a subjective choice of regimes. The other one is a novel model that incorporates a new variable, geostrophic wind, which has strong influence on the surface wind, into one of the advanced space-time statistical forecasting models. This model is motivated by the lack of improvement in forecast accuracy when using air pressure and temperature directly. Using geostrophic wind in the model is not only critical, it also has a meaningful geophysical interpretation. The importance of model evaluation is emphasized in the dissertation as well. Rather than using RMSE or MAE, the performance of both wind forecasting models mentioned above are assessed by economic benefits with real wind farm data from Pacific Northwest of the U.S and West Texas. Wind forecasts are incorporated into power system economic dispatch models, and the power system operation cost is used as a loss measure for the performance of the forecasting models. From another perspective, the new criterion leads to cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation with potential economic benefits arising from the system-wide generation of cost savings and ancillary services cost savings. As an illustration, the integrated forecasts and economic dispatch framework are applied to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) equivalent 24- bus system. Compared with persistence and autoregressive models, the first model suggests that cost savings from integration of wind power could be on the scale of tens of millions of dollars. For the second model, numerical simulations suggest that the overall generation cost can be reduced by up to 6.6% using look-ahead dispatch coupled with spatio-temporal wind forecast as compared with dispatch with persistent wind forecast model.

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil Markets Oil Markets IEO2005 projects that world crude oil prices in real 2003 dollars will decline from their current level by 2010, then rise gradually through 2025. In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world demand for crude oil grows from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per day in 2015 and to just over 119 million barrels per day in 2025. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the emerging Asian nations, where strong economic growth results in a robust increase in oil demand. Emerging Asia (including China and India) accounts for 45 percent of the total world increase in oil use over the forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case. The projected increase in world oil demand would require an increment to world production capability of more than 42 million barrels per day relative to the 2002 crude oil production capacity of 80.0 million barrels per day. Producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major source of production increases. In addition, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain highly competitive, with major increments to supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa. The estimates of incremental production are based on current proved reserves and a country-by-country assessment of ultimately recoverable petroleum. In the IEO2005 oil price cases, the substantial investment capital required to produce the incremental volumes is assumed to exist, and the investors are expected to receive at least a 10-percent return on investment.

457

Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2004  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes the status of wind energy forecasting technology for predicting wind speed and energy generation of wind energy facilities short-term (minutes to hours), intermediate-term (hours to days), and long-term (months to years) average wind speed and energy generation. The information should be useful to companies that are evaluating or planning to incorporate wind energy forecasting into their operations.

2005-04-26T23:59:59.000Z

458

Forecasting the demand for commercial telecommunications satellites  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper summarizes the key elements of a forecast methodology for predicting demand for commercial satellite services and the resulting demand for satellite hardware and launches. The paper discusses the characterization of satellite services into more than a dozen applications (including emerging satellite Internet applications) used by Futron Corporation in its forecasts. The paper discusses the relationship between demand for satellite services and demand for satellite hardware

Carissa Bryce Christensen; Carie A. Mullins; Linda A. Williams

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

460

Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.  

SciTech Connect

This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

Brainard, James Robert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

HETEROGENEOUS SHALLOW-SHELF CARBONATE BUILDUPS IN THE PARADOX BASIN, UTAH AND COLORADO: TARGETS FOR INCREASED OIL PRODUCTION AND RESERVES USING HORIZONTAL DRILLING TECHNIQUES  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Paradox Basin of Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico contains nearly 100 small oil fields producing from carbonate buildups within the Pennsylvanian (Desmoinesian) Paradox Formation. These fields typically have one to 10 wells with primary production ranging from 700,000 to 2,000,000 barrels (111,300-318,000 m{sup 3}) of oil per field and a 15 to 20 percent recovery rate. At least 200 million barrels (31.8 million m{sup 3}) of oil will not be recovered from these small fields because of inefficient recovery practices and undrained heterogeneous reservoirs. Several fields in southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado are being evaluated as candidates for horizontal drilling and enhanced oil recovery from existing vertical wells based upon geological characterization and reservoir modeling case studies. Geological characterization on a local scale is focused on reservoir heterogeneity, quality, and lateral continuity, as well as possible reservoir compartmentalization, within these fields. This study utilizes representative cores, geophysical logs, and thin sections to characterize and grade each field's potential for drilling horizontal laterals from existing development wells. The results of these studies can be applied to similar fields elsewhere in the Paradox Basin and the Rocky Mountain region, the Michigan and Illinois Basins, and the Midcontinent region. This report covers research activities for the second half of the third project year (October 6, 2002, through April 5, 2003). The primary work included describing and mapping regional facies of the upper Ismay and lower Desert Creek zones of the Paradox Formation in the Blanding sub-basin, Utah. Regional cross sections show the development of ''clean carbonate'' packages that contain all of the productive reservoir facies. These clean carbonates abruptly change laterally into thick anhydrite packages that filled several small intra-shelf basins in the upper Ismay zone. Examination of upper Ismay cores identified seven depositional facies: open marine, middle shelf, inner shelf/tidal flat, bryozoan mounds, phylloid-algal mounds, quartz sand dunes, and anhydritic salinas. Lower Desert Creek facies include open marine, middle shelf, protomounds/collapse breccia, and phylloid-algal mounds. Mapping the upper Ismay zone facies delineates very prospective reservoir trends that contain porous, productive buildups around the anhydrite-filled intra-shelf basins. Facies and reservoir controls imposed by the anhydritic intra-shelf basins should be considered when selecting the optimal location and orientation of any horizontal drilling from known phylloidalgal reservoirs to undrained reserves, as well as identifying new exploration trends. Although intra-shelf basins are not present in the lower Desert Creek zone of the Blanding sub-basin, drilling horizontally along linear shoreline trends could also encounter previously undrilled, porous intervals and buildups. Technology transfer activities consisted of a technical presentation at a Class II Review conference sponsored by the National Energy Technology Laboratory at the Center for Energy and Economic Diversification in Odessa, Texas. The project home page was updated on the Utah Geological Survey Internet web site.

David E. Eby; Thomas C. Chidsey, Jr.; Kevin McClure; Craig D. Morgan

2003-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

Controlling inventory by improving demand forecasting within the alcoholic beverage industry : a case study.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This thesis explores how combing statistical demand forecasting methods and causal forecasting methods with judgmental forecasts via a Sales and Operation Planning process can improve… (more)

Deng, Xiaomu

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast Energy Demand................................................................................................................................. 1 Demand Forecast Methodology.................................................................................................. 3 New Demand Forecasting Model for the Sixth Plan

464

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast Summary............................................................................................................ 2 Sixth Power Plan Demand Forecast................................................................................................ 4 Demand Forecast Range

465

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

466

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast.................................................................................. 19 Forecasting Commercial Floor Space Requirements

467

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents for the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticdevelop a state-of-the- art forecasting tool to predict suchto be used solely for forecasting. Whether these perceptions

Berk, Richard; He, Yan; Sorenson, Susan B.

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

468

Hydrologic scales, cloud variability, remote sensing, and models: Implications for forecasting snowmelt and streamflow  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

econ. WEATHER AND FORECASTING Environmental decisions (1993seasonal, and WEATHER AND FORECASTING V OLUME 19 spatialfor details. WEATHER AND FORECASTING V OLUME 19 T ABLE 2.

Simpson, James J; Dettinger, M D; Gehrke, F; McIntire, T J; Hufford, G L

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

469

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents for the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticdevelop a state-of-the- art forecasting tool to predict suchto be used solely for forecasting. Whether these perceptions

Richard Berk; Yan He; Susan B. Sorenson

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

Reliable before-fabrication forecasting of expected surface slope distributions for x-ray optics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Reliable before-fabrication forecasting of expected surfacefor highly reliable forecasting of the expected surfaceaccuracy of this type of forecasting by comparing the power

Yashchuk, Yekaterina V.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

471

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents for the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible

Berk, Richard; Sorenson, Susan B.; He, Yan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Calibration of a distributed flood forecasting model with input uncertainty using a Bayesian framework  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble modelSutcliffe (1970), River flow forecasting through conceptuala Distributed Flood Forecasting Model with Input Uncertainty

Li, M.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

Implementing Innovation in Planning Practice: The Case of Travel Demand Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project. Institute ofTRB. Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice andPurvis. Regional Travel Forecasting Model System for the San

Newmark, Gregory Louis

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

Linear Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The performance of an ensemble prediction system is inherently flow dependent. This dissertation investigates the flow dependence of the ensemble performance with the help of linear diagnostics applied to the ensemble perturbations in a small local neighborhood of each model grid point location ?. A local error covariance matrix P? is defined for each local region and the diagnostics are applied to the linear space S? defined by the range of the ensemble based estimate of P?. The particular diagnostics are chosen to help investigate the ability of S? to efficiently capture the space of true forecast or analysis uncertainties, accurately predict the magnitude of forecast or analysis uncertainties, and to distinguish between the importance of different state space directions. Additionally, we aim to better understand the roots of the underestimation of the magnitude of uncertainty by the ensemble at longer forecast lead times. Numerical experiments are carried out with an implementation of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation system on a reduced (T62L28) resolution version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS). Both simulated observations under the perfect model scenario and observations of the real atmosphere are used in these experiments. It is found that (i) paradoxically, the linear space S? provides an increasingly better estimate of the space of forecast uncertainties as the time evolution of the ensemble perturbations becomes more nonlinear with increasing forecast time, (ii) S? provides a more reliable linear representation of the space of forecast uncertainties for cases of more rapid error growth, (iii) the E-dimension is a reliable predictor of the performance of S? in predicting the space of forecast uncertainties, (iv) the ensemble grossly underestimates the forecast error variance in S?, (v) when realistic observation coverage is used, the ensemble typically overestimates the uncertainty in the leading eigen-directions of ˆP ? and underestimates the uncertainty in the trailing directions at analysis time and underestimates the uncertainty in all directions by the 120-hr forecast lead time, and (vi) at analysis time, with a constant covariance inflation factor, the ensemble typically underestimates uncertainty in densely observed regions and overestimates the uncertainty in sparsely observed regions.

Satterfield, Elizabeth A.

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

475

Mid-range energy-forecasting system: structure, forecasts, and critique  

SciTech Connect

The Mid-Range Energy Forecasting System (MEFS) is a large-scale, interdisciplinary model of the US energy system maintained by the US Department of Energy. MEFS provides long-run regional forecasts of delivered prices for electricity, coal, gasoline, residual, distillate, and natural gas. A number of sets of MEFS forecasts are usually issued, each set corresponding to a different scenario. Because it forecasts prices and since these forecasts are regularly disseminated, MEFS is of considerable practical interest. A critical guide of the model's output for potential users is provided in this paper. The model's logic is described, the latest forecasts from MEFS are presented, and the reasonableness of both the forecasts and the methodology are critically evaluated. The manner in which MEFS interfaces with the Oil Market Simulation Model, which forecasts crude oil price, is also discussed. The evaluation concludes that while there are serious problems with MEFS, selective use can prove very helpful. 17 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.

DeSouza, G.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

Forecasting Solar Radiation -- Preliminary Evaluation of an Approach Based upon the National Forecast Database  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Our objective is to develop, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions from the National Digital Forecast Database as an input. This report describes the model and presents a limited evaluation of its performance against ground-measured and satellite-derived irradiances in Albany, New York.

Perez, R.; Moore, K.; Wilcox, S.; Renne, D.; Zelenka, A.

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

Maintaining the Role of Humans in the Forecast Process: Analyzing the Psyche of Expert Forecasters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process occurred on 2–3 August 2005 at the American Meteorological Society's Weather Analysis and Forecasting Conference in Washington, D.C. The forum consisted of three sessions. ...

Neil A. Stuart; David M. Schultz; Gary Klein

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

Information Center

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

Composite carbon foam electrode  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

Carbon aerogels used as a binder for granularized materials, including other forms of carbon and metal additives, are cast onto carbon or metal fiber substrates to form composite carbon thin film sheets. The thin film sheets are utilized in electrochemical energy storage applications, such as electrochemical double layer capacitors (aerocapacitors), lithium based battery insertion electrodes, fuel cell electrodes, and electrocapacitive deionization electrodes. The composite carbon foam may be formed by prior known processes, but with the solid particles being added during the liquid phase of the process, i.e. prior to gelation. The other forms of carbon may include carbon microspheres, carbon powder, carbon aerogel powder or particles, graphite carbons. Metal and/or carbon fibers may be added for increased conductivity. The choice of materials and fibers will depend on the electrolyte used and the relative trade off of system resistivty and power to system energy.

Mayer, Steven T. (San Leandro, CA); Pekala, Richard W. (Pleasant Hill, CA); Kaschmitter, James L. (Pleasanton, CA)

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

Composite carbon foam electrode  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

Carbon aerogels used as a binder for granulated materials, including other forms of carbon and metal additives, are cast onto carbon or metal fiber substrates to form composite carbon thin film sheets. The thin film sheets are utilized in electrochemical energy storage applications, such as electrochemical double layer capacitors (aerocapacitors), lithium based battery insertion electrodes, fuel cell electrodes, and electrocapacitive deionization electrodes. The composite carbon foam may be formed by prior known processes, but with the solid particles being added during the liquid phase of the process, i.e. prior to gelation. The other forms of carbon may include carbon microspheres, carbon powder, carbon aerogel powder or particles, graphite carbons. Metal and/or carbon fibers may be added for increased conductivity. The choice of materials and fibers will depend on the electrolyte used and the relative trade off of system resistivity and power to system energy. 1 fig.

Mayer, S.T.; Pekala, R.W.; Kaschmitter, J.L.

1997-05-06T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast increases carbon" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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481

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

482

Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the U.S. Public  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, and meteorologists have information about weather forecast uncertainty that is not readily available to most forecast users. Yet effectively communicating forecast uncertainty to nonmeteorologists ...

Rebecca E. Morss; Julie L. Demuth; Jeffrey K. Lazo

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

forecasts (or any other forecast, for that matter) in makingcase natural gas price forecast, but to also examine a wideAEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices:forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Appendix ATable 1. Forecast Year AEO Predicted Price from 1996-2003

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

12-32021E2_Forecast  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

FORECAST OF VACANCIES FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2014 (Issue No. 20) Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff at the P4-P5 levels: * Advanced university degree (or equivalent postgraduate degree); * 7 or 10 years, respectively, of experience in a field of relevance to the post; * Resource management experience; * Strong analytical skills; * Computer skills: standard Microsoft Office software; * Languages: Fluency in English. Working knowledge of other official languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish) advantageous; * Ability to work effectively in multidisciplinary and multicultural teams; * Ability to communicate effectively. Professional staff at the P1-P3 levels:

486

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro?Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed

Nazrin Ullah; P. Choudhury

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

487

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.

488

The Canadian Regional Data Assimilation and Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the recent changes to the regional data assimilation and forecasting system at the Canadian Meteorological Center. A major aspect is the replacement of the currently operational global variable resolution forecasting approach ...

Luc Fillion; Monique Tanguay; Ervig Lapalme; Bertrand Denis; Michel Desgagne; Vivian Lee; Nils Ek; Zhuo Liu; Manon Lajoie; Jean-François Caron; Christian Pagé

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

489

Architect Of Severe Storm Forecasting: Colonel Robert C. Miller  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The career of severe storm forecaster and teacher Colonel Robert Miller (1920–98) is historicallyreviewed and evaluated. His pathway to the position of recognized authority in severe storm forecasting is examined in light of his early education ...

John M. Lewis; Robert A. Maddox; Charlie A. Crisp

2006-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

490

Forecasting the 12–14 March 1993 Superstorm  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the decision-making process used by the forecasters in the National Meteorological Center's Meteorological Operations Division and in Weather Forecast Offices of the National Weather Service to provide the successful ...

Louis W. Uccellini; Paul J. Kocin; Russell S. Schneider; Paul M. Stokols; Russell A. Dorr

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

A Nested Spectral Model for Hurricane Track Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A numerical method for analysing and forecasting a wide range of horizontal scales of motion is tested in a barotropic hurricane track forecast model. The numerical method uses cubic B-spline representations of variables on nested domains. The ...

Mark Demaria; Sim D. Aberson; Katsuyuki V. Ooyama; Stephen J. Lord

1992-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

Does Distance from the Forecast Site Affect Skill?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An outstanding issue in the assessment of forecast skill (and value) is whether any advantage that can be obtained through regional knowledge not readily available to distant forecasters supersedes the leveling effect of information obtained by ...

Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart; Gregory S. Forbes

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

Skill in Precipitation Forecasting in the National Weather Service  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

All known long-term records of forecasting performance for different types of precipitation forecasts in the National Weather Service were examined for relative skill and secular trends in skill. The largest upward trends were achieved by local ...

Jerome P. Charba; William H. Klein

1980-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Extended-Range Probability Forecasts Based on Dynamical Model Output  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A probability forecast has advantages over a deterministic forecast as the former offers information about the probabilities of various possible future states of the atmosphere. As physics-based numerical models find their success in modern ...

Jianfu Pan; Huug van den Dool

1998-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14

496

A Short-Range Objective Nocturnal Temperature Forecasting Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A relatively simple, objective, nocturnal temperature forecasting model suitable for freezing and near-freezing conditions has been designed so that a user, presumably a weather forecaster, can put in standard meteorological data at a particular ...

Robert A. Sutherland

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

The development of a statistical forecast model for Changma  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting year-to-year variation in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation is one of the most challenging tasks in climate prediction because predictors are not sufficiently well known and forecast skill by numerical models is poor. In ...

Seung-Eon Lee; Kyong-Hwan Seo

498

Early Warnings of Severe Weather from Ensemble Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A system has been developed to give probabilistic warnings of severe-weather events for the United Kingdom (UK) on a regional and national basis, based on forecast output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ...

T. P. Legg; K. R. Mylne

2004-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

Toward an Integrated Seasonal Forecasting System for South America  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: (i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and ...

C. A. S. Coelho; D. B. Stephenson; M. Balmaseda; F. J. Doblas-Reyes; G. J. van Oldenborgh

2006-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

500

Neighborhood Verification: A Strategy for Rewarding Close Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

High-resolution forecasts may be quite useful even when they do not match the observations exactly. Neighborhood verification is a strategy for evaluating the “closeness” of the forecast to the observations within space–time neighborhoods rather ...

Elizabeth E. Ebert

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z