Powered by Deep Web Technologies
Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


1

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

2

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

3

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

4

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

5

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

6

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

7

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

8

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

9

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

10

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

11

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

12

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

14

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

15

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

16

TESLA: Taylor Expanded Solar Analog Forecasting Bengu Ozge Akyurek, Alper Sinan Akyurek, Jan Kleissl and Tajana Simunic Rosing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

TESLA: Taylor Expanded Solar Analog Forecasting Bengu Ozge Akyurek, Alper Sinan Akyurek, Jan- ergy resources within the Smart Grid, solar forecasting has become an important problem for hour]. It is difficult to obtain an accurate result from the weather and solar predictions. Accurate fore- casting

Simunic, Tajana

17

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 Total Electricity Sales 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 Natural Gas Production 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 Coal Production 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 7.5 Net Natural Gas Imports 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.4

18

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Evaluation of hierarchical forecasting for substitutable products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper addresses hierarchical forecasting in a production planning environment. Specifically, we examine the relative effectiveness of Top-Down (TD) and Bottom-Up (BU) strategies for forecasting the demand for a substitutable product (which belongs to a family) as well as the demand for the product family under different types of family demand processes. Through a simulation study, it is revealed that the TD strategy consistently outperforms the BU strategy for forecasting product family demand. The relative superiority of the TD strategy further improves by as much as 52% as the product demand variability increases and the degree of substitutability between the products decreases. This phenomenon, however, is not always true for forecasting the demand for the products within the family. In this case, it is found that there are a few situations wherein the BU strategy marginally outperforms the TD strategy, especially when the product demand variability is high and the degree of product substitutability is low.

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; R. Piplani

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Evaluating the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast tracer concentrations during ETEX 2  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Evaluating the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast tracer concentrations an operational numerical weather prediction model to forecast air quality are also investigated. These potential a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model independently of the CTM. The NWP output is typically archived

Dacre, Helen

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Evaluation of Polar WRF forecasts on the Arctic System Reanalysis domain: Surface and upper air analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

analyses of regional mod- eling with Polar WRF have been performed with results compared to selected localEvaluation of Polar WRF forecasts on the Arctic System Reanalysis domain: Surface and upper air.1.1 of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), a highresolution regional scale model, is used to simulate

Howat, Ian M.

22

Coupling and evaluating gas/particle mass transfer treatments for aerosol simulation and forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Coupling and evaluating gas/particle mass transfer treatments for aerosol simulation and forecast hindcasting and forecasting. The lack of an efficient yet accurate gas/particle mass transfer treatment December 2007; accepted 21 February 2008; published 12 June 2008. [1] Simulating gas/particle mass transfer

Jacobson, Mark

23

Modeling and Analysis Papers - Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation > Table 1 Evaluation > Table 1 Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to 2002 Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO97 AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 Total Coal Consumption 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 Total Electricity Sales 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 Production Crude Oil Production 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Natural Gas Production 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 Coal Production 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 10.1 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 Net Natural Gas Imports 17.4 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 Net Coal Exports

24

Evaluation of expanded uncertainties in luminous intensity and illuminance calibrations  

SciTech Connect

Detector-based calibrating methods and expressions for calculation of photometric uncertainties related to uncertainties in the calibrations of luminous intensity of a light source, illuminance responsivity of a photometer head, and calibration factors of an illuminance meter are discussed. These methods permit luminous intensity calibrations of incandescent light sources, luminous responsivity calibrations of photometer heads, and calibration factors of illuminance meters to be carried out with relative expanded uncertainties (with a level of confidence of 95.45%) of 0.4%, 0.4%, and 0.6%, respectively.

Sametoglu, Ferhat

2008-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

USING SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND REANALYSES TO EVALUATE CLIMATE AND WEATHER FORECAST MODELS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

USING SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND REANALYSES TO EVALUATE CLIMATE AND WEATHER FORECAST MODELS Richard Email: rpa@mail.nerc-essc.ac.uk ABSTRACT Satellite observations of water vapour and radiative fluxes are used in combination with reanalyses data to evaluate the Met Office weather and climate prediction

Allan, Richard P.

26

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables 2-18  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Absolute and Percent Errors, 1985-1999 Publication 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Average Absolute Error (Quadrillion Btu) AEO82 79.1 79.6 79.9 80.8 82.0 83.3 1.8 AEO83 78.0 79.5 81.0 82.4 83.8 84.6 89.5 1.2 AEO84 78.5 79.4 81.2 83.1 85.0 86.4 93.5 1.5 AEO85 77.6 78.5 79.8 81.2 82.6 83.3 84.2 85.2 85.9 86.7 87.7 1.3 AEO86 77.0 78.8 79.8 80.6 81.5 82.9 84.0 84.8 85.7 86.5 87.9 88.4 87.8 88.7 3.6 AEO87 78.9 80.0 81.9 82.8 83.9 85.3 86.4 87.5 88.4 1.5 AEO89 82.2 83.7 84.5 85.4 86.4 87.3 88.2 89.2 90.8 91.4 90.9 91.7 1.8

27

Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models Results of the Anemos Project  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models ­ Results of the Anemos Project I. Martí1.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract An outstanding question posed today by end-users like power system operators, wind power producers or traders is what performance can be expected by state-of-the-art wind power prediction models. This paper

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

28

EVALUATION OF PV GENERATION CAPICITY CREDIT FORECAST ON DAY-AHEAD UTILITY MARKETS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

City, and Sacramento Municipal Utility District, in California 1. BACKGROUND The effective capacity comfortable if capacity could be ascertained operationally by knowing in advance what the output of solar of the NDFD-based solar radiation forecasts for several climatically distinct locations, the evaluation is now

Perez, Richard R.

29

Evaluating alternative fuels in USA: a proposed forecasting framework using AHP and scenarios  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper proposes a forecasting framework that integrates the analytic hierarchy process with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialisation of future motor fuel technologies. We analyse the reasons for the uncertainty of oil price and how it affects alternative fuel commercialisation. We propose a set of evaluation criteria including Economic, Cultural, Environmental, Sustainability and Development Time. Finally, we develop four different Scenarios to verify the robustness of each alternative.

M.R. Nava; Tugrul U. Daim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

Marquez, Ricardo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

A GIS tool for the evaluation of the precipitation forecasts of a numerical weather prediction model using satellite data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, the possibility of implementing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for developing an integrated and automatic operational system for the real-time evaluation of the precipitation forecasts of the numerical weather prediction model BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model) in Greece, is examined. In fact, the precipitation estimates derived by an infrared satellite technique are used for real-time qualitative and quantitative verification of the precipitation forecasts of the model BOLAM through the use of a GIS tool named as precipitation forecasts evaluator (PFE). The application of the developed tool in a case associated with intense precipitation in Greece, suggested that PFE could be a very important support tool for nowcasting and very short-range forecasting of such events.

Haralambos Feidas; Themistoklis Kontos; Nikolaos Soulakellis; Konstantinos Lagouvardos

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

andvalidation. SolarEnergy. 73:5,307? Perez,R. ,irradianceforecastsforsolarenergyapplicationsbasedonforecastdatabase. SolarEnergy. 81:6,809?812.

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

An evaluation of market penetration forecasting methodologies for new residential and commercial energy technologies  

SciTech Connect

Forecasting market penetration is an essential step in the development and assessment of new technologies. This report reviews several methodologies that are available for market penetration forecasting. The primary objective of this report is to help entrepreneurs understand these methodologies and aid in the selection of one or more of them for application to a particular new technology. This report also illustrates the application of these methodologies, using examples of new technologies, such as the heat pump, drawn from the residential and commercial sector. The report concludes with a brief discussion of some considerations in selecting a forecasting methodology for a particular situation. It must be emphasized that the objective of this report is not to construct a specific market penetration model for new technologies but only to provide a comparative evaluation of methodologies that would be useful to an entrepreneur who is unfamiliar with the range of techniques available. The specific methodologies considered in this report are as follows: subjective estimation methods, market surveys, historical analogy models, time series models, econometric models, diffusion models, economic cost models, and discrete choice models. In addition to these individual methodologies, which range from the very simple to the very complex, two combination approaches are also briefly discussed: (1) the economic cost model combined with the diffusion model and (2) the discrete choice model combined with the diffusion model. This discussion of combination methodologies is not meant to be exhaustive. Rather, it is intended merely to show that many methodologies often can complement each other. A combination of two or more different approaches may be better than a single methodology alone.

Raju, P.S.; Teotia, A.P.S.

1985-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

An evaluation of forecasting methods for aircraft non-routine maintenance material demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Aircraft maintenance can be divided into routine and non-routine activities. Material demand associated with non-routine maintenance is typically intermittent or lumpy: it has a large variance in frequency and quantity. Consequently, this type of demand is hard to predict. This paper introduces a method to collect time series datasets for aircraft non-routine maintenance material demand. Non-routine material consumption is linked to scheduled maintenance tasks to gain insight in demand patterns. A structural part selection of the Boeing 737NG fleet of an aviation partner has been sampled to generate various test cases. Subsequently, various forecasting methods are applied to these test cases and evaluated using various accuracy metrics. For the small time series datasets associated with non-routine maintenance, exponentially weighted moving average (EMA) outperformed smoothing methods such as Croston's method (CR) and the Syntetos-Boylan approximation (SBA). To validate the practical applicability of EMA for non-routine maintenance material demand, the method has been applied and verified in the prediction of actual demand for a separate maintenance C-check.

Maarten Zorgdrager; Wim J.C. Verhagen; Richard Curran

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts from Global Numerical Models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts rely heavily on output from global numerical models. While considerable research has investigated the skill of various models with respect to track and intensity, few studies have considered how well global models ...

Daniel J. Halperin; Henry E. Fuelberg; Robert E. Hart; Joshua H. Cossuth; Philip Sura; Richard J. Pasch

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

While state-of-the-art models of Earth's climate system have improved tremendously over the last 20 years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. Contrasting the ...

Emma B. Suckling; Leonard A. Smith

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Daniel Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma ARM AAF Wiki page Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance...

39

Evaluation of artificial neural networks as a model for forecasting consumption of wood products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In specific sciences, such as forest policy, the need for anticipation becomes more urgent because it has to manage valuable natural resources whose protection and sustainable management is rendered essential. In this paper, a modern method has been used, known as artificial neural networks (ANNs). In order to forecast the necessary future volumes of timber in Greece, a neural network has been developed and trained, using a variety of time series derived from the database of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) (concerning Greece) as external values and as internal value the Consumer Price Index has been used. Comparing the results of this project with linear and non-linear econometric forecasting models, it has been found that neural networks correspond, as confirmed by the econometric indicators MAPE (average absolute percentage error) and RMSE (the square root of the percentage by the average sum of squares differences).

Giorgos Tigas; Panagiotis Lefakis; Konstantinos Ioannou; Athanasios Hasekioglou

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models  

SciTech Connect

We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

2008-01-24T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Installed performance evaluation of an air turbo-rocket expander engine  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The propulsion plant of a prospective supersonic cruise aircraft consists of an air turbo-rocket expander and a dual-mode ramjet. A comprehensive numerical model was constructed to examine the performance of the air turbo-rocket during the supersonic acceleration of the vehicle. The numerical model comprised a one-dimensional representation of the fluid paths through the dual-mode ramjet, the air turbo-rocket combustor, the regenerator and the airframe-integrated nozzle, whereas the turbomachinery and the air turbo-rocket bypass were included as zero-dimensional models. The intake operation was based on the results of time-averaged Euler simulations. A preliminary engine analysis revealed that the installation effects restricted significantly the operational envelope, which was subsequently extended bypassing the air turbo-rocket. Hence the engine was throttled varying the mixture ratio and the fan compression ratio. Nevertheless, the performance was optimal when the demand from the air turbo-rocket matched the intake air flow capture. The heat recovery across the regenerator was found critical for the operation of the turbomachinery at low speed. The transition of the air turbo-rocket to ramjet operation was identified at Mach 4.5. During this regime, the propulsion plant was rather insensitive to the mixture ratio and was throttled with the air turbo-rocket throat area.

V. Fernndez-Villac; G. Paniagua; J. Steelant

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

The Information Needed to Evaluate the Worth of Uncertain Information, Predictions and Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

To evaluate the worth of uncertain information one must obtain three types of evaluative information: 1) statistical measures of the uncertainty of the information and of its likely occurrence; 2) the decision rule (how the information is used) ...

Donald R. Davis; Soronadi Nnaji

1982-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

International Environmental Evaluation for the Helical Screw Expander Generator Unit Projects in Cesano, Italy and Broadlands, New Zealand  

SciTech Connect

The objectives of the Helical Screw Expander (HSE) Generator Program are (1) to accelerate the development of geothermal resources by introducing this advanced conversion technology, (2) to provide operating experience to prospective users of the equipment, and (3) to collect data on the performance and reliability of the equipment under various geothermal resource conditions. The participants hope to achieve these goals by testing a small-scale, transportable HSE generator at existing geothermal test facilities that produce fluids of different salinity, temperature and pressure conditions. This Environmental Evaluation has been prepared, using available information, to analyze the environmental consequences of testing the HSE generator. Its purpose is to support a decision on the need for a complete environmental review of the HSE program under the terms of Executive Order 121 14, ''Environmental Effects Abroad of Major federal Actions''. This Executive Order requires review of projects which involve the release of potentially toxic effluents that are strictly regulated in the United States, or which may have significant environmental effects on the global commons, on natural or ecological resources of international significance, or on the environment of non-participating countries. The final guidelines implementing the provisions of the Executive Order for DOE have been published. This evaluation deals with testing to be conducted at Cesano, Italy by the designated contractor of the Italian government, the Ente Narionale per l'Energia Ellectrica (ENEL), and at Broadlands, New Zealand by the Ministry of Works and Development of New Zealand. Testing at Cerro Prieto, Mexico has already been completed by the Comision Federal de Electricidad and is not evaluated in this report.

Webb, J.W.; Mezga, L.J.; Reed, A.W.

1981-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Space-time forecasting and evaluation of wind speed with statistical tests for comparing accuracy of spatial predictions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 11 Comparing the predictive distributions for the models when the TDD model produces the best forecast (top panel) and when the BST model produces the best forecast (bottom panel). The small vertical line on the x-axis of each plot represents... of wind to benefit humans is not a new concept. Historically, wind- mills have been used to pump water from wells or to grind grain for centuries. But fast- forwarding into the 21st century, ?windmills? are being used to generate electricity. Wind turbines...

Hering, Amanda S.

2010-10-12T23:59:59.000Z

46

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

47

Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis have been evaluated for two samples: a near-homogeneous sample of ECMWF and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Modelensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) ensemble forecasts during the National Science ...

Sharanya J. Majumdar; Ryan D. Torn

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Expanding Professional Horizons  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

* * Expanding Professional Horizons 2 SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES 3 LDRD * Expanding Professional Horizons 3 LDRD * Expanding Professional Horizons 4 SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES 5 LDRD * Expanding Professional Horizons Contents Overview 6 Early-Career 8 Mid-Career 22 Late-Career 36 Expanding Professional Horizons For further information, contact: Henry R. Westrich LDRD Program Manager hrwestr@sandia.gov 505-844-9092 4 5 LDRD * Expanding Professional Horizons SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES 6 SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES 7 LDRD * Expanding Professional Horizons exemplars pointing the way to successful research endeavors under the LDRD rubric. Perhaps most importantly, LDRD is a mechanism that has created a vast number of cross-cultural partnerships across the

49

Development and Evaluation of a Coupled Photosynthesis-Based Gas Exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Development and Evaluation of a Coupled Photosynthesis-Based Gas Exchange Evapotranspiration Model with a photosynthesis-based scheme and still achieve dynamically consistent results. To demonstrate this transformative potential, the authors developed and coupled a photosynthesis, gas exchange­based surface evapotranspiration

Niyogi, Dev

50

Introduction Properties of Expander Codes  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Expander Codes Our Results Conclusions Background Basic Definitions LDPC Codes Expander Codes Turbo CodesIntroduction Properties of Expander Codes Our Results Conclusions Expander Codes: Constructions, Haifa 32000, Israel. Vitaly Skachek Expander Codes: Constructions and Bounds #12;Introduction Properties

Skachek, Vitaly

51

Forecasting wireless communication technologies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The purpose of the paper is to present a formal comparison of a variety of multiple regression models in technology forecasting for wireless communication. We compare results obtained from multiple regression models to determine whether they provide a superior fitting and forecasting performance. Both techniques predict the year of wireless communication technology introduction from the first (1G) to fourth (4G) generations. This paper intends to identify the key parameters impacting the growth of wireless communications. The comparison of technology forecasting approaches benefits future researchers and practitioners when developing a prediction of future wireless communication technologies. The items of focus will be to understand the relationship between variable selection and model fit. Because the forecasting error was successfully reduced from previous approaches, the quadratic regression methodology is applied to the forecasting of future technology commercialisation. In this study, the data will show that the quadratic regression forecasting technique provides a better fit to the curve.

Sabrina Patino; Jisun Kim; Tugrul U. Daim

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Wind Power Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email List Self Supplied Balancing Reserves Dynamic...

53

Wind Power Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has configured a Wind Power Forecasting System for Xcel Energy that integrates high resolution and ensemble...

Sue Ellen Haupt; William P. Mahoney; Keith Parks

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

54

Energy Demand Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents alternative approaches used in forecasting energy demand and discusses their pros and cons. It... Chaps. 3 and 4 ...

S. C. Bhattacharyya

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific  

SciTech Connect

Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

2011-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

56

Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This project studied and analyzed Electronic Controls, Inc.s forecasting process for three high-demand products. In addition, alternative forecasting methods were developed to compare to the current forecast method. The ...

Balandran, Juan

2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

57

Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

Coherent Expanded-Aerogels  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Coherent Expanded-Aerogels ... Hydrophobization of Silica Aerogels: Insights from Quantitative Solid-State NMR Spectroscopy ... Hydrophobization of Silica Aerogels: Insights from Quantitative Solid-State NMR Spectroscopy ...

S. S. Kistler

1931-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

60

CAPP 2010 Forecast.indd  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecast, Markets & Pipelines 1 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Pipelines June 2010 2 CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCERS Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by the...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Symbiosis Biofeedstock Conference: Expanding Commercialization...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Biofeedstock Conference: Expanding Commercialization of Mutualistic Microbes to Increase Feedstock Production Symbiosis Biofeedstock Conference: Expanding Commercialization of...

62

Evaluation of Partial 16S Ribosomal DNA Sequencing for Identification of Nocardia Species by Using the MicroSeq 500 System with an Expanded Database  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...MicroSeq 500 system (Applied BioSystems, Foster City, Calif...species (4). A study was done to...sequencing system with our expanded...MicroSeq 500 system. c See the...description. This study was in compliance...and D. L. Wheeler. 2003. GenBank...

Joann L. Cloud; Patricia S. Conville; Ann Croft; Dag Harmsen; Frank G. Witebsky; Karen C. Carroll

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

Functionalized expanded porphyrins  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

Disclosed are functionalized expanded porphyrins that can be used as spectrometric sensors for high-valent actinide cations. The disclosed functionalized expanded porphyrins have the advantage over unfunctionalized systems in that they can be immobilized via covalent attachment to a solid support comprising an inorganic or organic polymer or other common substrates. Substrates comprising the disclosed functionalized expanded porphyrins are also disclosed. Further, disclosed are methods of making the disclosed compounds (immobilized and free), methods of using them as sensors to detect high valent actinides, devices that comprise the disclosed compounds, and kits.

Sessler, Jonathan L; Pantos, Patricia J

2013-11-12T23:59:59.000Z

64

Stent with expandable foam  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A stent for treating a physical anomaly. The stent includes a skeletal support structure for expanding in the physical anomaly and a shape memory material coupled to the skeletal support structure.

Wilson, Thomas S; Maitland, Duncan J; Small, IV, Ward; Buckley, Patrick R; Benett, William J; Hartman, Jonathan; Saloner, David A

2013-05-28T23:59:59.000Z

65

Comparing Forecast Skill  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A basic question in forecasting is whether one prediction system is more skillful than another. Some commonly used statistical significance tests cannot answer this question correctly if the skills are computed on a common period or using a common ...

Timothy DelSole; Michael K. Tippett

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Wind and Load Forecast Error Model for Multiple Geographically Distributed Forecasts  

SciTech Connect

The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To generate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations, auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to simulate forecast error curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and present some experimental results by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.

2010-11-02T23:59:59.000Z

67

Expanding Robust HCCI Operation (Delphi CRADA) | Department of...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

(Delphi CRADA) Expanding Robust HCCI Operation (Delphi CRADA) 2011 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program, and Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation...

68

A suite of metrics for assessing the performance of solar power forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task because of the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Inaccurate forecasts can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. One of the key challenges is the unavailability of a consistent and robust set of metrics to measure the accuracy of a solar forecast. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, and applications) that were developed as part of the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiatives efforts to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting. In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design-of-experiments methodology in conjunction with response surface, sensitivity analysis, and nonparametric statistical testing methods. The three types of forecasting improvements are (i) uniform forecasting improvements when there is not a ramp, (ii) ramp forecasting magnitude improvements, and (iii) ramp forecasting threshold changes. Day-ahead and 1-hour-ahead forecasts for both simulated and actual solar power plants are analyzed. The results show that the proposed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts and assess the economic and reliability impacts of improved solar forecasting. Sensitivity analysis results show that (i) all proposed metrics are suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with uniform forecasting improvements, and (ii) the metrics of skewness, kurtosis, and Rnyi entropy are specifically suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with ramp forecasting improvements and a ramp forecasting threshold.

Jie Zhang; Anthony Florita; Bri-Mathias Hodge; Siyuan Lu; Hendrik F. Hamann; Venkat Banunarayanan; Anna M. Brockway

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

Information-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The information content, that is, the predictive capability, of a forecast system is often quantified with skill scores. This paper introduces two ranked mutual information skill (RMIS) scores, RMISO and RMISY, for the evaluation of probabilistic ...

Bodo Ahrens; Andr Walser

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

71

Sandia National Laboratories: solar forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

72

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Rate Forecasts 19 5. EIA Forecast: Regional Coal Production 22 6. Wood Mackenzie Forecast: W.V. Steam to data currently published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), coal production in the state in this report calls for state production to decline by 11.3 percent in 2009 to 140.2 million tons. During

Mohaghegh, Shahab

73

Evaluation of the grand-canonical partition function using expanded Wang-Landau simulations. III. Impact of combining rules on mixtures properties  

SciTech Connect

Combining rules, such as the Lorentz-Berthelot rules, are routinely used to calculate the thermodynamic properties of mixtures using molecular simulations. Here we extend the expanded Wang-Landau simulation approach to determine the impact of the combining rules on the value of the partition function of binary systems, and, in turn, on the phase coexistence and thermodynamics of these mixtures. We study various types of mixtures, ranging from systems of rare gases to biologically and technologically relevant mixtures, such as water-urea and water-carbon dioxide. Comparing the simulation results to the experimental data on mixtures of rare gases allows us to rank the performance of combining rules. We find that the widely used Lorentz-Berthelot rules exhibit the largest deviations from the experimental data, both for the bulk and at coexistence, while the Kong and Waldman-Hagler provide much better alternatives. In particular, in the case of aqueous solutions of urea, we show that the use of the Lorentz-Berthelot rules has a strong impact on the Gibbs free energy of the solute, overshooting the value predicted by the Waldman-Hagler rules by 7%. This result emphasizes the importance of the combining rule for the determination of hydration free energies using molecular simulations.

Desgranges, Caroline; Delhommelle, Jerome [Department of Chemistry, University of North Dakota, 151 Cornell Street Stop 9024, Grand Forks, North Dakota 58202 (United States)] [Department of Chemistry, University of North Dakota, 151 Cornell Street Stop 9024, Grand Forks, North Dakota 58202 (United States)

2014-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

74

On Sequential Probability Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

at the same time. [Probability, Statistics and Truth, MacMillan 1957. page 11] ... the collective "denotes a collective wherein the attribute of the single event is the number of points thrown. [Probability, StatisticsOn Sequential Probability Forecasting David A. Bessler 1 David A. Bessler Texas A&M University

McCarl, Bruce A.

75

Expanded Pending Jobs by Group  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Expanded Pending Jobs by Group Expanded Pending Jobs by Group Daily Graph: Weekly Graph: Monthly Graph: Yearly Graph: 2 Year Graph: Last edited: 2011-04-05 14:00:25...

76

Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Cloud Parameterizations in Short-Range Weather Forecasts with CAM3 and AM2 for Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment  

SciTech Connect

By making use of the in-situ data collected from the recent Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment, we have tested the mixed-phase cloud parameterizations used in the two major U.S. climate models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory climate model (AM2), under both the single-column modeling framework and the U.S. Department of Energy Climate Change Prediction Program-Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Parameterization Testbed. An improved and more physically based cloud microphysical scheme for CAM3 has been also tested. The single-column modeling tests were summarized in the second quarter 2007 Atmospheric Radiation Measurement metric report. In the current report, we document the performance of these microphysical schemes in short-range weather forecasts using the Climate Chagne Prediction Program Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Parameterizaiton Testbest strategy, in which we initialize CAM3 and AM2 with realistic atmospheric states from numerical weather prediction analyses for the period when Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment was conducted.

Xie, S; Boyle, J; Klein, S; Liu, X; Ghan, S

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

78

Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014  

SciTech Connect

This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Mechanically expandable annular seal  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A mechanically expandable annular reusable seal assembly to form an annular hermetic barrier between two stationary, parallel, and planar containment surfaces is described. A rotatable ring, attached to the first surface, has ring wedges resembling the saw-tooth array of a hole saw. Matching seal wedges are slidably attached to the ring wedges and have their motion restricted to be perpendicular to the second surface. Each seal wedge has a face parallel to the second surface. An annular elastomer seal has a central annular region attached to the seal wedges' parallel faces and has its inner and outer circumferences attached to the first surface. A rotation of the ring extends the elastomer seal's central region perpendicularly towards the second surface to create the fluid tight barrier. A counter rotation removes the barrier. 6 figs.

Gilmore, R.F.

1983-07-19T23:59:59.000Z

80

The Roles of an Expanding Wind Field and Inertial Stability in Tropical Cyclone Secondary Eyewall Formation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

that is configured as a balanced vortex model. Given the symmetric tangential wind and temperature structure from WRFThe Roles of an Expanding Wind Field and Inertial Stability in Tropical Cyclone Secondary Eyewall and Forecasting Model (WRF) is used to simulate secondary eyewall formation (SEF) in a tropical cyclone (TC

Kossin, James P.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Ensemble Forecasts and their Verification  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· Ensemble forecast verification ­ Performance metrics: Brier Score, CRPSS · New concepts and developments of weather Sources: Insufficient spatial resolution, truncation errors in the dynamical equations

Maryland at College Park, University of

83

Dark Energy Cam: Fermilab Expands Understanding of Expanding Universe |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Dark Energy Cam: Fermilab Expands Understanding of Expanding Dark Energy Cam: Fermilab Expands Understanding of Expanding Universe Dark Energy Cam: Fermilab Expands Understanding of Expanding Universe March 12, 2012 - 12:06pm Addthis Researchers at Fermi National Lab team stand beside the 570-megapixels, five-ton Dark Energy camera, which will be capable of measuring the expansion of the universe - and developing better models about how dark energy works. | Photo by Reidar Hahn, Fermi National Lab Researchers at Fermi National Lab team stand beside the 570-megapixels, five-ton Dark Energy camera, which will be capable of measuring the expansion of the universe - and developing better models about how dark energy works. | Photo by Reidar Hahn, Fermi National Lab Charles Rousseaux Charles Rousseaux Senior Writer, Office of Science

84

Dark Energy Cam: Fermilab Expands Understanding of Expanding Universe |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Dark Energy Cam: Fermilab Expands Understanding of Expanding Dark Energy Cam: Fermilab Expands Understanding of Expanding Universe Dark Energy Cam: Fermilab Expands Understanding of Expanding Universe March 12, 2012 - 12:06pm Addthis Researchers at Fermi National Lab team stand beside the 570-megapixels, five-ton Dark Energy camera, which will be capable of measuring the expansion of the universe - and developing better models about how dark energy works. | Photo by Reidar Hahn, Fermi National Lab Researchers at Fermi National Lab team stand beside the 570-megapixels, five-ton Dark Energy camera, which will be capable of measuring the expansion of the universe - and developing better models about how dark energy works. | Photo by Reidar Hahn, Fermi National Lab Charles Rousseaux Charles Rousseaux Senior Writer, Office of Science

85

Probabilistic manpower forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

- ing E. Results- Probabilistic Forecasting . 26 27 Z8 29 31 35 36 38 39 IV. CONCLUSIONS. V. GLOSSARY 42 44 APPENDICES REFERENCES 50 70 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Outline of Job-Probability Matrix Job-Probability Matrix. Possible... Outcomes of Job A Possible Outcomes of Jobs A and B 10 Possible Outcomes of Jobs A, B and C II LIST GF FIGURES Figure Page Binary Representation of Numbers 0 Through 7 12 First Cumulative Probability Table 14 3. Graph of Cumulative Probability vs...

Koonce, James Fitzhugh

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

Toward evaluating the effect of climate change on investments in the water resources sector: insights from the forecast and analysis of hydrological indicators in developing countries  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The World Bank has recently developed a method to evaluate the effects of climate change on six hydrological indicators across 8951 basins of the world. The indicators are designed for decision-makers and stakeholders to ...

Jacobsen, Michael

88

Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Logos of the University of...

89

Forecasting with adaptive extended exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Much of product level forecasting is based upon time series techniques. However, traditional time series forecasting techniques have offered either smoothing constant adaptability or consideration of various t...

John T. Mentzer Ph.D.

90

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 ...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in...

92

Modeling turbo-expander systems  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Turbo-expander systems have long been used instead of regulators, but they have recently received attention as a driving medium for power electrical generators. These systems typically replace the regulator valves that reduce the gas pressure in gas ... Keywords: dispersed generation, turbo-expander systems, variable nozzle angle

Mehdi Taleshian Jelodar; Hasan Rastegar; Hossein Askarian Abyaneh

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

Correcting and combining time series forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Combined forecasters have been in the vanguard of stochastic time series modeling. In this way it has been usual to suppose that each single model generates a residual or prediction error like a white noise. However, mostly because of disturbances not ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks hybrid systems, Linear combination of forecasts, Maximum likelihood estimation, Time series forecasters, Unbiased forecasters

Paulo Renato A. Firmino; Paulo S. G. De Mattos Neto; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12 N Collier N Charlotte S Charlotte NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest

95

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

SciTech Connect

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

96

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

97

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

98

Forecasting phenology under global warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Forrest Forecasting phenology under global warming Ines Ibanez 1 * Richard B. Primack...and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species...climate change|East Asia, global warming|growing season, hierarchical...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

Demand Forecasting of New Products  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Keeping Unit or SKU) employing attribute analysis techniques. The objective of this thesis is to improve Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock

Sun, Yu

100

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

SciTech Connect

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Expanded Plain TEX Steven Smith  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Expanded Plain TEX Sept 2004 2.8.4 Karl Berry Steven Smith #12;This manual documents the Eplain Berry. Steven Smith wrote the documentation for the commutative diagram macros. (He also wrote

Mintmire, John W.

102

Energy recovery with turbo expanders  

SciTech Connect

In the oil, gas and petrochemical industry, there are many instances where energy is under-utilized, if not actually wasted. In many cases it may be possible to recover some of this energy and obtain useful work, thereby improving plant efficiency and the economics of the operation. The turbo expander is a simple device that can make a significant contribution to the recovery of energy in all kinds of plants. This paper considers some ways in which turbo expanders may be used and looks in detail at an application in the gas industry where the energy lost in pressure reduction may be recovered and used to assist in reducing operating costs. The design criteria for such turbo expanders are discussed and areas for future development are proposed. The paper concludes that there are significant gains to be made in the recovery of waste energy and that the turbo expander can play a major role in this activity.

Cleveland, A.

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

104

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...

105

Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster (more)

Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

Forecasting Solar Wind Speeds  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

By explicitly taking into account effects of Alfven waves, I derive from a simple energetics argument a fundamental relation which predicts solar wind (SW) speeds in the vicinity of the earth from physical properties on the sun. Kojima et al. recently found from their observations that a ratio of surface magnetic field strength to an expansion factor of open magnetic flux tubes is a good indicator of the SW speed. I show by using the derived relation that this nice correlation is an evidence of the Alfven wave which accelerates SW in expanding flux tubes. The observations further require that fluctuation amplitudes of magnetic field lines at the surface should be almost universal in different coronal holes, which needs to be tested by future observations.

Takeru K. Suzuki

2006-02-03T23:59:59.000Z

107

Experimental Investigation of a New Type Expander  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An experimental study of a new type of expander, the Rotary Jet Expander (RJE), has been conducted to advance ... cryogenic engineering. In contrast to reciprocating and turbo-expanders, an RJE is simple in const...

Jian Shao; Yudi Bao; Yongnian Shen; Yangpu Feng

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

109

The University of Reading Helen Dacre Evaluating pollution transport in  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The University of Reading Helen Dacre Evaluating pollution transport in weather prediction models Outline Air pollution forecasting Offline forecasting Online forecasting Aim Overview of ETEX 2 case Conclusions and future work #12;The University of Reading Helen Dacre Offline Air Pollution Forecasting

Dacre, Helen

110

Expanding Your Horizons Conference, Lawrence Livermore National...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Expanding Your Horizons Conference, Lawrence Livermore National Lab Expanding Your Horizons Conference, Lawrence Livermore National Lab August 1, 2013 6:45PM EDT to August 31, 2013...

111

Sandia National Laboratories: Sandia Expands an International...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

ClimateECAbout ECFacilitiesCRFSandia Expands an International Collaboration and Web Database on Engine Fuel Spray Combustion Research Sandia Expands an International Collaboration...

112

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model  

SciTech Connect

This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Communication of uncertainty in temperature forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We used experimental economics to test whether undergraduate students presented with a temperature forecast with uncertainty information in a table and bar graph format were able to use the extra information to interpret a given forecast. ...

Pricilla Marimo; Todd R. Kaplan; Ken Mylne; Martin Sharpe

115

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

117

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Forecasting Water Use in Texas Cities  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this research project, a methodology for automating the forecasting of municipal daily water use is developed and implemented in a microcomputer program called WATCAL. An automated forecast system is devised by modifying the previously...

Shaw, Douglas T.; Maidment, David R.

119

Energy demand forecasting: industry practices and challenges  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Accurate forecasting of energy demand plays a key role for utility companies, network operators, producers and suppliers of energy. Demand forecasts are utilized for unit commitment, market bidding, network operation and maintenance, integration of renewable ... Keywords: analytics, energy demand forecasting, machine learning, renewable energy sources, smart grids, smart meters

Mathieu Sinn

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Optical Expanders with Applications in Optical Computing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Optical Expanders with Applications in Optical Computing John H. Reif Akitoshi Yoshida July 20, 1999 Abstract We describe and investigate an optical system which we call an optical expander. An optical expander elec- trooptically expands an optical boolean pattern encoded in d bits into an optical

Reif, John H.

122

Optical Expanders with Applications in Optical Computing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Optical Expanders with Applications in Optical Computing John H. Reif \\Lambda Akitoshi Yoshida \\Lambda July 20, 1999 Abstract We describe and investigate an optical system which we call an optical expander. An optical expander elec­ trooptically expands an optical boolean pattern encoded in d bits

Reif, John H.

123

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013

124

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)â??s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor...

Liu, Dandan

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

125

Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with variational heteroscedastic Gaussian process and active learning  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Electricity price forecasting is essential for the market participants in their decision making. Nevertheless, the accuracy of such forecasting cannot be guaranteed due to the high variability of the price data. For this reason, in many cases, rather than merely point forecasting results, market participants are more interested in the probabilistic price forecasting results, i.e., the prediction intervals of the electricity price. Focusing on this issue, this paper proposes a new model for the probabilistic electricity price forecasting. This model is based on the active learning technique and the variational heteroscedastic Gaussian process (VHGP). It provides the heteroscedastic Gaussian prediction intervals, which effectively quantify the heteroscedastic uncertainties associated with the price data. Because the high computational effort of VHGP hinders its application to the large-scale electricity price forecasting tasks, we design an active learning algorithm to select a most informative training subset from the whole available training set. By constructing the forecasting model on this smaller subset, the computational efforts can be significantly reduced. In this way, the practical applicability of the proposed model is enhanced. The forecasting performance and the computational time of the proposed model are evaluated using the real-world electricity price data, which is obtained from the ANEM, PJM, and New England ISO.

Peng Kou; Deliang Liang; Lin Gao; Jianyong Lou

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

Forecasting-based SKU classification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Different spare parts are associated with different underlying demand patterns, which in turn require different forecasting methods. Consequently, there is a need to categorise stock keeping units (SKUs) and apply the most appropriate methods in each category. For intermittent demands, Croston's method (CRO) is currently regarded as the standard method used in industry to forecast the relevant inventory requirements; this is despite the bias associated with Croston's estimates. A bias adjusted modification to CRO (SyntetosBoylan Approximation, SBA) has been shown in a number of empirical studies to perform very well and be associated with a very robust behaviour. In a 2005 article, entitled On the categorisation of demand patterns published by the Journal of the Operational Research Society, Syntetos et al. (2005) suggested a categorisation scheme, which establishes regions of superior forecasting performance between CRO and SBA. The results led to the development of an approximate rule that is expressed in terms of fixed cut-off values for the following two classification criteria: the squared coefficient of variation of the demand sizes and the average inter-demand interval. Kostenko and Hyndman (2006) revisited this issue and suggested an alternative scheme to distinguish between CRO and SBA in order to improve overall forecasting accuracy. Claims were made in terms of the superiority of the proposed approach to the original solution but this issue has never been assessed empirically. This constitutes the main objective of our work. In this paper the above discussed classification solutions are compared by means of experimentation on more than 10,000 \\{SKUs\\} from three different industries. The results enable insights to be gained into the comparative benefits of these approaches. The trade-offs between forecast accuracy and other implementation related considerations are also addressed.

G. Heinecke; A.A. Syntetos; W. Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

An Improved Adaptive Exponential Smoothing Model for Short-term Travel Time Forecasting of Urban Arterial Street  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Short-term forecasting of travel time is essential for the success of intelligent transportation system. In this paper, we review the state-of-art of short-term traffic forecasting models and outline their basic ideas, related works, advantages and disadvantages of each model. An improved adaptive exponential smoothing (IAES) model is also proposed to overcome the drawbacks of the previous adaptive exponential smoothing model. Then, comparing experiments are carried out under normal traffic condition and abnormal traffic condition to evaluate the performance of four main branches of forecasting models on direct travel time data obtained by license plate matching (LPM). The results of experiments show each model seems to have its own strength and weakness. The forecasting performance of IASE is superior to other models in shorter forecasting horizon (one and two step forecasting) and the IASE is capable of dealing with all kind of traffic conditions.

Zhi-Peng LI; Hong YU; Yun-Cai LIU; Fu-Qiang LIU

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

5 - Applications for screw expanders  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract: This chapter begins with a more detailed description of problems associated with the lubrication of screw expanders and some solutions to them. It then differentiates between applications of screw expanders, in systems in which the fluid, constituting the source of energy, is expanded to produce power within a larger system, which may have other functions and cycles, where the sole aim of the system is to produce power. In the first case, this includes pressure reduction valve (PRV) replacement in industrial steam plant, refrigeration and air conditioning systems. In the latter case, heat from an external source is supplied to a system operating on a closed thermodynamic cycle and the working fluid is different to the heating and cooling media. A variety of applications and cycle configurations are described suitable for lower, medium and higher temperatures and where it is required to recover power from two heat sources within a single system, such as the jacket coolant and the exhaust gases of an internal combustion engine. The chapter concludes with a description of the factors that need to be taken into account in optimising system design.

Ian K. Smith; Nikola Stosic; Ahmed Kovacevic

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

A new improved forecasting method integrated fuzzy time series with the exponential smoothing method  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents a new method of integrated fuzzy time series with the exponential smoothing method to forecast university enrolments. The data of historical enrolments of the University of Alabama shown in Liu et al. (2011) are adopted to illustrate the forecasting process of the proposed method. A comparison has been made with five previous fuzzy time series models. Meanwhile, the mean squared error has also been calculated as the evaluation criterion to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. The empirical analysis shows that the proposed model reflects the fluctuations in fuzzy time series better and provides better overall forecasting results than the five listed previous models.

Peng Ge; Jun Wang; Peiyu Ren; Huafeng Gao; Yuyan Luo

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

Forecasting wind speed financial return  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events  

SciTech Connect

Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

132

Power load forecasting using data mining and knowledge discovery technology  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Considering the importance of the peak load to the dispatching and management of the electric system, the error of peak load is proposed in this paper as criteria to evaluate the effect of the forecasting model. This paper proposes a systemic framework that attempts to use data mining and knowledge discovery (DMKD) to pretreat the data. And a new model is proposed which combines artificial neural networks with data mining and knowledge discovery for electric load forecasting. With DMKD technology, the system not only could mine the historical daily loading which had the same meteorological category as the forecasting day to compose data sequence with highly similar meteorological features, but also could eliminate the redundant influential factors. Then an artificial neural network is constructed to predict according to its characteristics. Using this new model, it could eliminate the redundant information, accelerate the training speed of neural network and improve the stability of the convergence. Compared with single BP neural network, this new method can achieve greater forecasting accuracy.

Yongli Wang; Dongxiao Niu; Ling Ji

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations the Northern Study Area.  

SciTech Connect

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

134

New or Expanding Industries Tax Credit (Montana)  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

Under the New or Expanding Industries Tax Credit, property used by certain new or expanding industries is eligible for reduced taxable valuation (up to 50% of their taxable value for the first 5...

135

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Lewis Poulin Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important... and weather information ? Numerical weather forecast production 101 ? From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts ? Some MSC weather forecast (NWP) datasets ? Finding the appropriate data for the appropriate forecast ? Preparing for probabilistic...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

136

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using 17-day ensemble forecasts of 24-h accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

A hybrid short-term load forecasting with a new data preprocessing framework  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper proposes a hybrid load forecasting framework with a new data preprocessing algorithm to enhance the accuracy of prediction. Bayesian neural network (BNN) is used to predict the load. A discrete wavelet transform (DWT) decomposes the load components into proper levels of resolution determined by an entropy-based criterion. Time series and regression analysis are used to select the best set of inputs among the input candidates. A correlation analysis together with a neural network provides an estimation of the predictions for the forecasting outputs. A standardization procedure is proposed to take into account the correlation estimations of the outputs with their associated input series. The preprocessing algorithm uses the input selection, wavelet decomposition and the proposed standardization to provide the most appropriate inputs for BNNs. Genetic Algorithm (GA) is then used to optimize the weighting coefficients of different forecast components and minimize the forecast error. The performance and accuracy of the proposed short-term load forecasting (STLF) method is evaluated using New England load data. Our results show a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy when compared to the existing state-of-the-art forecasting techniques.

M. Ghayekhloo; M.B. Menhaj; M. Ghofrani

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

140

Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

142

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE ... It now appears that the success of the new technology, which rests largely on energy and equipment cost savings, could be overwhelming. ...

1980-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

143

NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts

144

Production of biodiesel using expanded gas solvents  

SciTech Connect

A method of producing an alkyl ester. The method comprises providing an alcohol and a triglyceride or fatty acid. An expanding gas is dissolved into the alcohol to form a gas expanded solvent. The alcohol is reacted with the triglyceride or fatty acid in a single phase to produce the alkyl ester. The expanding gas may be a nonpolar expanding gas, such as carbon dioxide, methane, ethane, propane, butane, pentane, ethylene, propylene, butylene, pentene, isomers thereof, and mixtures thereof, which is dissolved into the alcohol. The gas expanded solvent may be maintained at a temperature below, at, or above a critical temperature of the expanding gas and at a pressure below, at, or above a critical pressure of the expanding gas.

Ginosar, Daniel M [Idaho Falls, ID; Fox, Robert V [Idaho Falls, ID; Petkovic, Lucia M [Idaho Falls, ID

2009-04-07T23:59:59.000Z

145

Drizo protects turbo expander plant  

SciTech Connect

A triethylene glycol (TEG) unit using Dow's Drizo technology in front of processes was installed in a turbo expander plant owned by Valero Hydrocarbons, San Antonio, Texas. The TEG unit was placed in the process because methanol consumption had run higher than design conditions had predicted; gas flow rates and water content varied widely; and the gas was found to be contaminated considerably with iron sulfide. The TEG unit optimized gas processing by reducing the water content of gas to the system, accepting variable gas flow and water content to smooth out feed gas quality, removing iron sulfide and other contaminants before processing, and being amenable to conversion from other equipment already in existence at other Valero plant locations. The TEG Drizo process provides an azeotropic agent injected into the hot glycol, and the glycol solution is used to reduce residual water content of gas. Details of the equipment and process conversion are given.

Frazier, C.W.; Force, J.E.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Expanding the Trilinos developer community.  

SciTech Connect

The Trilinos Project started approximately nine years ago as a small effort to enable research, development and ongoing support of small, related solver software efforts. The 'Tri' in Trilinos was intended to indicate the eventual three packages we planned to develop. In 2007 the project expanded its scope to include any package that was an enabling technology for technical computing. Presently the Trilinos repository contains over 55 packages covering a broad spectrum of reusable tools for constructing full-featured scalable scientific and engineering applications. Trilinos usage is now worldwide, and many applications have an explicit dependence on Trilinos for essential capabilities. Users come from other US laboratories, universities, industry and international research groups. Awareness and use of Trilinos is growing rapidly outside of Sandia. Members of the external research community are becoming more familiar with Trilinos, its design and collaborative nature. As a result, the Trilinos project is receiving an increasing number of requests from external community members who want to contribute to Trilinos as developers. To-date we have worked with external developers in an ad hoc fashion. Going forward, we want to develop a set of policies, procedures, tools and infrastructure to simplify interactions with external developers. As we go forward with multi-laboratory efforts such as CASL and X-Stack, and international projects such as IESP, we will need a more streamlined and explicit process for making external developers 'first-class citizens' in the Trilinos development community. This document is intended to frame the discussion for expanding the Trilinos community to all strategically important external members, while at the same time preserving Sandia's primary leadership role in the project.

Heroux, Michael Allen

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

148

Ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecasts model in Taiwan  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, an ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecast (ETQPF) model was developed to provide typhoon rainfall forecasts for Taiwan. The ETQPF rainfall forecast is obtained by averaging the pick-out cases, which are screened at a ...

Jing-Shan Hong; Chin-Tzu Fong; Ling-Feng Hsiao; Yi-Chiang Yu; Chian-You Tzeng

149

EIS-0310: Accomplishing Expanded Civilian Nuclear Energy Research and  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

310: Accomplishing Expanded Civilian Nuclear Energy Research 310: Accomplishing Expanded Civilian Nuclear Energy Research and Development and Isotope Production Missions in the United States, Including the Role of the Fast Flux Test Facility EIS-0310: Accomplishing Expanded Civilian Nuclear Energy Research and Development and Isotope Production Missions in the United States, Including the Role of the Fast Flux Test Facility Summary This PEIS will evaluate the potential environmental impacts of the proposed enhancement of the existing infrastructure, including the possible role of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), located at DOE's Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. This PEIS will analyze the potential environmental impacts of alternative ways to meet the projected irradiation needs for the next 35 years. Public Comment Opportunities

150

Forecast of geothermal drilling activity  

SciTech Connect

The numbers of each type of geothermal well expected to be drilled in the United States for each 5-year period to 2000 AD are specified. Forecasts of the growth of geothermally supplied electric power and direct heat uses are presented. The different types of geothermal wells needed to support the forecasted capacity are quantified, including differentiation of the number of wells to be drilled at each major geothermal resource for electric power production. The rate of growth of electric capacity at geothermal resource areas is expected to be 15 to 25% per year (after an initial critical size is reached) until natural or economic limits are approached. Five resource areas in the United States should grow to significant capacity by the end of the century (The Geysers; Imperial Valley; Valles Caldera, NM; Roosevelt Hot Springs, UT; and northern Nevada). About 3800 geothermal wells are expected to be drilled in support of all electric power projects in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD. Half of the wells are expected to be drilled in the Imperial Valley. The Geysers area is expected to retain most of the drilling activity for the next 5 years. By the 1990's, the Imperial Valley is expected to contain most of the drilling activity.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development

Kemner, Ken

152

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

153

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near­surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

154

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

: Technology Forecast, Laws of Technical systems evolution, Analysis of Contradictions. 1. Introduction Let us: If technology forecasting practice remains at the present level, it is necessary to significantly improve to new demands (like Green House Gases - GHG Effect reduction or covering exploded nuclear reactor

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

155

UHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2

156

Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surfaceAmending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS Integrated Water Vapour: a case study to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents

Stoffelen, Ad

157

A Forecasting Support System Based on Exponential Smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents a forecasting support system based on the exponential smoothing scheme to forecast time-series data. Exponential smoothing methods are simple to apply, which facilitates...

Ana Corbern-Vallet; Jos D. Bermdez; Jos V. Segura

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

principal investigator for the project. For wind power point forecasting, ARGUS PRIMA trains a neural network using data from weather forecasts, observations, and actual wind...

159

Improved Prediction of Runway Usage for Noise Forecast :.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The research deals with improved prediction of runway usage for noise forecast. Since the accuracy of the noise forecast depends on the robustness of runway (more)

Dhanasekaran, D.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...  

Energy Savers (EERE)

Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

PBL FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenues Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

162

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

SciTech Connect

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Expanders do payouts offshore North Sea  

SciTech Connect

Rich associated gas may be beneficially processed offshore, to yield high value condensate to be spiked into the crude, whilst still producing gas with an acceptable nett calorific value. Actual turbo expander operating experience on the Occidental Piper North Sea Platform has demonstrated that expanders are reliable offshore. This paper, describes both the process and mechanical aspects that affect the choice of an expander system for an offshore application. For a given typical rich associated gas, three process options are compared, Joule-Thompson expansion, external refrigeration and a turbo expander system. The process study illustrates that a turbo expander system is comparable for the offshore situation with the other two options. The paper also describes the mechanical features that should be incorporated into the specification of an expander for use on a platform topsides.

Barnwell, J.; Wong, W.

1984-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Better Buildings Challenge Expands to Multifamily Housing  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

The U.S. Departments of Energy and Housing and Urban Development expanded the Better Buildings Challenge to multifamily housing such as apartments and condominiums.

165

Process design of helium refrigerators collaborated with the predesign of turbo expander  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Turbo expanders are the most critical components in helium refrigerators. However since the performance of expanders is dependent on a number of operating parameters and the relations between them are quite complex usually only very simple modeling for expanders is applied during the process design with which the scale and performance of expanders cannot be rated. Hence the design parameters specified by process design may not match the current turbine technology. As a solution we employed a collaborated design method with which a predesign for turbo expanders is integrated into the process design. The tip wheel diameter the tip speed the rotational speed and the efficiency of turbo expander are preliminarily calculated. Evaluation of these parameters helps us to check if the process design is appropriate or need to be further improved.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2014: Heavy Duty Roots Expander Heat Energy Recovery (HD-REHER)  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

Presentation given by Eaton Corporation at 2014 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and Vehicle Technologies Office Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting about heavy duty roots expander...

168

EPA expands air quality emissions trading policy  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

EPA expands air quality emissions trading policy ... The Environmental Protection Agency has expanded its old "bubble policy" into a wider-ranging, supposedly more effective, emissions trading program designed to speed up attainment of national air quality standards and save money. ... It also authorizes states to adopt generic emissions trading rules and extend these to all ... ...

1982-04-12T23:59:59.000Z

169

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

170

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power study. Key words : wind power forecast, ramps, phase er- rors, forecasts ensemble. 1 Introduction Most

Boyer, Edmond

171

The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and number of countries withforeign subsidiaries) are significantly positively related to more optimistic management earnings forecasts....

Runyan, Bruce Wayne

2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

172

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

J.B. , 2004: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using localforecast intervals for wind power output using NWP-predictedsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

United States California Solar Initiative Coastally Trappedparticipants in the California Solar Initiative (CSI)on location. In California, solar irradiance forecasts near

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

175

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

176

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

177

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

178

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

Gilleland, Eric

179

Forecasting Capital Expenditure with Plan Data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The short-term forecasting of capital expenditure presents one of the most difficult problems ... reason is that year-to-year fluctuations in capital expenditure are extremely wide. Some simple methods which...

W. Gerstenberger

1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...of each variable on GDP (13, 17), combined with global GDP projections (14...population, and per capita GDP, combined with projected...measure of agricultural demand for water, is forecast...Just as demand for energy is the major cause...

David Tilman; Joseph Fargione; Brian Wolff; Carla D'Antonio; Andrew Dobson; Robert Howarth; David Schindler; William H. Schlesinger; Daniel Simberloff; Deborah Swackhamer

2001-04-13T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...

A. James Wagner

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...

Edward C. Johnston

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

Forecasting energy markets using support vector machines  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper we investigate the efficiency of a support vector machine (SVM)-based forecasting model for the next-day directional change of electricity prices. We first adjust the best autoregressive SVM model and then we enhance it with various related variables. The system is tested on the daily Phelix index of the German and Austrian control area of the European Energy Exchange (???) wholesale electricity market. The forecast accuracy we achieved is 76.12% over a 200day period.

Theophilos Papadimitriou; Periklis Gogas; Efthimios Stathakis

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

Expanding Your Horizons scheduled for March 2  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Expanding Your Horizons Expanding Your Horizons Community Connections: Our link to Northern New Mexico Communities Latest Issue:Dec. 2013 - Jan. 2014 All Issues » submit Expanding Your Horizons scheduled for March 2 The conference offers fifth- to 12th-grade girls opportunities to participate in hands-on workshops about science, technology, engineering, math and related fields. February 1, 2013 dummy image Read our archives. Contacts Editor Linda Anderman Email Community Programs Office Kurt Steinhaus Email Up to 250 young women are expected to participate in the workshops that will include subjects such as computers and robots, veterinary medicine, cryptography and ocean science. This year the Santa Fe and Los Alamos Expanding Your Horizons (EYH) conferences are combined into one, all-day session to be held on March 2 at

185

Gravitational clustering in Static and Expanding Backgrounds  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A brief summary of several topics in the study of gravitational many body problem is given. The discussion covers both static backgrounds (applicable to astrophysical systems) as well as clustering in an expanding background (relevant for cosmology)

T. Padmanabhan

2003-08-28T23:59:59.000Z

186

More production buildings and expanded operations  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

production buildings and expanded operations The oval shaped Alpha calutrons were designated "Alpha 1" design and were installed in Buildings 9201- 1, 9201-2, and 9201-3. Each...

187

Forecasting aggregate time series with intermittent subaggregate components: top-down versus bottom-up forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......optimum value through a grid-search algorithm...method outperformed TD for estimating the aggregate data series...variable, there is no benefit of forecasting each subaggregate...forecasting strategies in estimating the `component'-level...WILLEMAIN, T. R., SMART, C. N., SHOCKOR......

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; Rajesh Piplani

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Forecasting the belief of the population: Prediction Markets, Social Media & Swine Flu  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting the belief of the population: Prediction Markets, Social Media & Swine Flu Daniel outbreak as a novel example to evaluate our models on the belief that it would turn into a pandemic. We and slow to run. Recently prediction markets have become a popular method to aggregate information

Hammerton, James

189

Quantile Forecasting of Commodity Futures' Returns: Are Implied Volatility Factors Informative?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This study develops a multi-period log-return quantile forecasting procedure to evaluate the performance of eleven nearby commodity futures contracts (NCFC) using a sample of 897 daily price observations and at-the-money (ATM) put and call implied...

Dorta, Miguel

2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

190

Application of a statistical post-processing technique to a gridded, operational, air quality forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract An automated air quality forecast bias correction scheme based on the short-term persistence of model bias with respect to recent observations is described. The scheme has been implemented in the operational Met Office five day regional air quality forecast for the UK. It has been evaluated against routine hourly pollution observations for a year-long hindcast. The results demonstrate the value of the scheme in improving performance. For the first day of the forecast the post-processing reduces the bias from 7.02 to 0.53?gm?3 for O3, from?4.70 to?0.63?gm?3 for NO2, from?4.00 to?0.13?gm?3 for PM2.5 and from?7.70 to?0.25?gm?3 for PM10. Other metrics also improve for all species. An analysis of the variation of forecast skill with lead-time is presented and demonstrates that the post-processing increases forecast skill out to five days ahead.

L.S. Neal; P. Agnew; S. Moseley; C. Ordez; N.H. Savage; M. Tilbee

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

Expanding the Use of Biogas with Fuel Cell Technologies | Department...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Expanding the Use of Biogas with Fuel Cell Technologies Expanding the Use of Biogas with Fuel Cell Technologies DOE perspective on expanding the use of biogas with fuel cell...

192

Radar-Derived Forecasts of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over Houston, Texas  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Lightning Forecasts..........................................................................................45 2.7 First Flash Forecasts and Lead Times.....................................................................47 vii... Cell Number ? 25 August 2000..............................................68 3.4 First Flash Forecast Time........................................................................................70 3.5 Lightning Forecasting Algorithm (LFA) Development...

Mosier, Richard Matthew

2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

193

12-32021E2_Forecast  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

FORECAST OF VACANCIES FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2014 (Issue No. 20) Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff at the P4-P5 levels: * Advanced university degree (or equivalent postgraduate degree); * 7 or 10 years, respectively, of experience in a field of relevance to the post; * Resource management experience; * Strong analytical skills; * Computer skills: standard Microsoft Office software; * Languages: Fluency in English. Working knowledge of other official languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish) advantageous; * Ability to work effectively in multidisciplinary and multicultural teams; * Ability to communicate effectively. Professional staff at the P1-P3 levels:

194

Expanded Capacity Microwave-Cleaned Diesel Particulate Filter...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Expanded Capacity Microwave-Cleaned Diesel Particulate Filter Expanded Capacity Microwave-Cleaned Diesel Particulate Filter 2002 DEER Conference Presentation: Industrial Ceramic...

195

Better Buildings Challenge is Expanding, Improving Energy Efficiency...  

Energy Savers (EERE)

is Expanding, Improving Energy Efficiency Throughout America Better Buildings Challenge is Expanding, Improving Energy Efficiency Throughout America December 5, 2013 - 4:36pm...

196

Alternative Fuels Data Center: North Carolina City Expands Alternative...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

North Carolina City Expands Alternative Fuel Fleet to someone by E-mail Share Alternative Fuels Data Center: North Carolina City Expands Alternative Fuel Fleet on Facebook Tweet...

197

SBA Expands Access to Contracting Opportunities for Women-Owned...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

SBA Expands Access to Contracting Opportunities for Women-Owned Small Businesses SBA Expands Access to Contracting Opportunities for Women-Owned Small Businesses January 22, 2013 -...

198

Combined Heat and Power: Expanding CHP in Your State | Department...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Combined Heat and Power: Expanding CHP in Your State Combined Heat and Power: Expanding CHP in Your State This presentation, given through the DOE's Technical Assitance Program...

199

Expanding Science and Energy Literacy with America's Science...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Expanding Science and Energy Literacy with America's Science and Technology Centers Expanding Science and Energy Literacy with America's Science and Technology Centers October 20,...

200

Expanding Educational Opportunities for the Wind Energy Workforce...  

Energy Savers (EERE)

Expanding Educational Opportunities for the Wind Energy Workforce Expanding Educational Opportunities for the Wind Energy Workforce April 11, 2013 - 12:00am Addthis The University...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Global Nuclear Energy Partnership Fact Sheet - Expand Domestic...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Expand Domestic Use of Nuclear Power Global Nuclear Energy Partnership Fact Sheet - Expand Domestic Use of Nuclear Power GNEP will build on the recent advances made by the...

202

Vice President Biden Unveils Report Focused on Expanding Green...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Unveils Report Focused on Expanding Green Jobs And Energy Savings For Middle Class Families Vice President Biden Unveils Report Focused on Expanding Green Jobs And Energy Savings...

203

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14

204

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.

205

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing forecasts for diverse three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators around the world we seek

McBurney, Peter

206

River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water ...

Kevin Werner; Kristen Averyt; Gigi Owen

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

Data Mining in Load Forecasting of Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This project applies Data Mining technology to the prediction of electric power system load forecast. It proposes a mining program of electric power load forecasting data based on the similarity of time series .....

Guang Yu Zhao; Yan Yan; Chun Zhou Zhao

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

Operational Rainfall and Flow Forecasting for the Panama Canal Watershed  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An integrated hydrometeorological system was designed for the utilization of data from various sensors in the 3300 km2 Panama Canal Watershed for the purpose of producing ... forecasts. These forecasts are used b...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Jason A. Sperfslage

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

Power System Load Forecasting Based on EEMD and ANN  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In order to fully mine the characteristics of load data and improve the accuracy of power system load forecasting, a load forecasting model based on Ensemble Empirical Mode ... is proposed in this paper. Firstly,...

Wanlu Sun; Zhigang Liu; Wenfan Li

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

211

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of...  

Energy Savers (EERE)

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar...

212

The Energy Demand Forecasting System of the National Energy Board  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the National Energy Boards long term energy demand forecasting model in its present state of ... results of recent research at the NEB. Energy demand forecasts developed with the aid of this....

R. A. Preece; L. B. Harsanyi; H. M. Webster

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Forecasting Energy Demand Using Fuzzy Seasonal Time Series  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Demand side energy management has become an important issue for energy management. In order to support energy planning and policy decisions forecasting the future demand is very important. Thus, forecasting the f...

?Irem Ual Sar?; Basar ztaysi

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

SHARP Neutronics Expanded | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

SHARP Neutronics Expanded SHARP Neutronics Expanded SHARP Neutronics Expanded January 29, 2013 - 1:28pm Addthis Fully heterogeneous predictions of thermal neutron flux in a hypothetical metal-oxide-fueled PWR Fully heterogeneous predictions of thermal neutron flux in a hypothetical metal-oxide-fueled PWR SHARP neutronics Module Development The SHARP neutronics module, PROTEUS, includes neutron and gamma transport solvers and cross-section processing tools as well as the capability for depletion and fuel cycle analysis. The existing high-fidelity solver package was extended to be independent of reactor technology and demonstrated with 2-D MOC and Sn method simulations of LWR core configurations. Efforts to support verification and validation of the DeCART code, used as one reference solution method by the SHARP code

215

Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.  

SciTech Connect

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets  

SciTech Connect

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

217

Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

218

DYNAMICAL MODEL OF AN EXPANDING SHELL  

SciTech Connect

Expanding blast waves are ubiquitous in many astronomical sources, such as supernova remnants, X-ray emitting binaries, and gamma-ray bursts. I consider here the dynamics of such an expanding blast wave, both in the adiabatic and the radiative regimes. As the blast wave collects material from its surroundings, it decelerates. A full description of the temporal evolution of the blast wave requires consideration of both the energy density and the pressure of the shocked material. The obtained equation is different from earlier works in which only the energy was considered. The solution converges to the familiar results in both the ultrarelativistic and the sub-relativistic (Newtonian) regimes.

Pe'er, Asaf [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, MS-51, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

2012-06-10T23:59:59.000Z

219

Liquefaction through expander for base load LNG  

SciTech Connect

New natural gas liquefaction process using turbo expander has been developed to improve process thermal efficiency. The new process consists of precooling section which uses refrigerant with shell and tube heat exchangers or brazed aluminum plate-fin exchangers or spool wound heat exchanger and liquefaction section by iso-entropic expander. As a result of design study, thermal efficiency of the new liquefaction process has been confirmed to be in the highest level compared with other liquefaction processes. Also, since the new liquefaction process is constructed with commonly available equipment in industry, it can be readily adapted to base load LNG plants of any capacity without requiring expensive and specially designed equipment.

Nakamura, Moritaka; Kikkawa, Yoshitsugi [Chiyoda Corp., Yokohama (Japan)

1998-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

220

Application of a Combination Forecasting Model in Logistics Parks' Demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistics parks demand is an important basis of establishing the development policy of logistics industry and logistics infrastructure for planning. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of logistics parks demand, a combination forecasting ... Keywords: Logistics parks' demand, combine, simulated annealing algorithm, grey forecast model, exponential smoothing method

Chen Qin; Qi Ming

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

Boyer, Edmond

222

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

223

Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· advantage: no NWP data necessary ­ very actual shortest term forecasts possible · wind power inputAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method

Heinemann, Detlev

224

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Dean, Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Mira Farka, Ph.D. -- Co-Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Associate Professor

de Lijser, Peter

225

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium

Stevenson, Paul

226

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data in California and for climate zones within those areas. The staff California Energy Demand 2008-2018 forecast

227

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

Povinelli, Richard J.

228

Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

An important determinant of our energy future is the rate at which energy conservation technologies, once developed, are put into use. At Synergic Resources Corporation, we have adapted and applied a methodology to forecast the use of conservation...

Lang, K.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

229

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism: A Network Analytic Approach Bruce A-0406 Fax: (919) 962-0432 Email: skyler@unc.edu Abstract--Efforts to combat and prevent transnational terror of terrorism. We construct the network of transnational terrorist attacks, in which source (sender) and target

Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

230

Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

' · Empirical models quantify our ability to predict without knowing the laws of physics · Climatology skill' model? 2. Dynamic climatology (DC) is a more appropriate benchmark for near- term (initialised) climate forecasts · A conditional climatology, initialised at launch and built from the historical archive

Stevenson, Paul

231

Sunny outlook for space weather forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... For decades, companies have tailored public weather data for private customers from farmers to airlines. On Wednesday, a group of businesses said that they ... utilities and satellite operators. But Terry Onsager, a physicist at the SWPC, says that private forecasting firms are starting to realize that they can add value to these predictions. ...

Eric Hand

2012-04-27T23:59:59.000Z

232

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

233

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and climate models differ. Aaron B. Wilson Context: Global http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ #12;Numerical Weather Prediction Collect Observations alters associated weather patterns. Models used to predict weather depend on the current observed state

Howat, Ian M.

234

Customized forecasting tool improves reserves estimation  

SciTech Connect

Unique producing characteristics of the Teapot sandstone formation, Powder River basin, Wyoming, necessitated the creation of individualized production forecasting methods for wells producing from this reservoir. The development and use of a set of production type curves and correlations for Teapot wells are described herein.

Mian, M.A.

1986-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

Storm-in-a-Box Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...But the WRF has no immediate...being tuned to local conditions...temperatures and winds with altitude...resulting WRF forecasts...captured the local sea-breeze winds better...spread the local operation of mesoscale...to be the WRF model now...

Richard A. Kerr

2004-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

236

FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

#12;FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016 (Issue No. 22) #12;Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff the team of professionals. Second half 2015 VACANCY GRADE REQUIREMENTS / ROLE EXPECTED DATE OF VACANCY

237

Expanding Earth Sciences Research with Layerscape  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Expanding Earth Sciences Research with Layerscape In Brief Websites: layerscape Earth in three-dimensional space and time. Oceanographers and earth scientists are using this free set of serious illness in the hospital was pneumonia." The Earth is a vast, complicated system comprised

Jakubowski, Mariusz H.

238

HAMILTON DECOMPOSITIONS OF REGULAR EXPANDERS: APPLICATIONS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HAMILTON DECOMPOSITIONS OF REGULAR EXPANDERS: APPLICATIONS DANIELA K¨UHN AND DERYK OSTHUS Abstract is linear in n and which is a robust outexpander has a decomposition into edge-disjoint Hamilton cycles into (n - 1)/2 edge-disjoint Hamilton cycles, whenever n is sufficiently large. This verified a conjecture

Kühn, Daniela

239

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

SciTech Connect

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

240

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint  

SciTech Connect

This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Steam System Forecasting and Management  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

by manipulation of operating schedules to avoid steam balances that result in steam venting, off gas-flaring, excessive condensing on extraction/condensing turbines, and ineffective use of extraction turbines. For example, during the fourth quarter of 1981... minimum turndown levels. Several boilers would have oeen shut down; by-product fuel gas would have been flared; and surplus low level steam would have been vented to the atmosphere. Several scenarios were studied with SFC and evaluated based...

Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.

244

Plasma Instabilities in an Anisotropically Expanding Geometry  

SciTech Connect

We study (3+1)D kinetic (Boltzmann-Vlasov) equations for relativistic plasma particles in a one dimensionally expanding geometry motivated by ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions. We set up local equations in terms of Yang-Mills potentials and auxiliary fields that allow simulations of hard- (expanding-) loop dynamics on a lattice. We determine numerically the evolution of plasma instabilities in the linear (Abelian) regime and also derive their late-time behavior analytically, which is consistent with recent numerical results on the evolution of the so-called melting color-glass condensate. We also find a significant delay in the onset of growth of plasma instabilities which are triggered by small rapidity fluctuations, even when the initial state is highly anisotropic.

Romatschke, Paul [Fakultaet fuer Physik, Universitaet Bielefeld, D-33501 Bielefeld (Germany); Rebhan, Anton [Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Technische Universitaet Wien, Wiedner Hauptstrasse 8-10, A-1040 Vienna (Austria)

2006-12-22T23:59:59.000Z

245

Gravitational Dynamics in an Expanding Universe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The dynamical evolution of collisionless particles in an expanding background is described. After discussing qualitatively the key features, the gravitational clustering of collisionless particles in an expanding universe is modelled using some simple physical ideas. I show that it is indeed possible to understand the nonlinear clustering in terms of three well defined regimes: (1) linear regime (2) quasilinear regime which is dominated by scale-invariant radial infall and (3) nonlinear regime dominated by nonradial motions and mergers. Modelling each of these regimes separately I show how the nonlinear two point correlation function can be related to the linear correlation function in hierarchical models. This analysis leads to results which are in good agreement with numerical simulations thereby providing an explanation for numerical results. The ideas presented here will also serve as a powerful analytical tool to investigate nonlinear clustering in different models. Several implications of the result are discussed.

T. Padmanabhan

1995-10-05T23:59:59.000Z

246

Evaluation of WRF-Predicted Near-Hub-Height Winds and Ramp Events over a Pacific Northwest Site with Complex Terrain  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

One challenge with wind-power forecasts is the accurate prediction of rapid changes in wind speed (ramps). To evaluate the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model's ability to predict such events, model simulations, conducted over an area of ...

Qing Yang; Larry K. Berg; Mikhail Pekour; Jerome D. Fast; Rob K. Newsom; Mark Stoelinga; Catherine Finley

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

247

Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope Print Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope Print Initial tests of a new pseudo-single-bunch (PSB) operational mode at the ALS have shown promising results-PSB would vastly expand the facility's capacity to carry out dynamics and time-of-flight experiments with a major reduction in sample damage. In PSB operation, a single electron bunch is displaced transversely from the other electron bunches circulating in the storage ring. Experiments that require light emitted only from a single bunch can stop the light emitted from the other bunches using a collimator. Other beamlines would only see a small reduction in flux due to the displaced bunch. As a result, PSB complements the scheduling of multibunch and timing experiments-currently, the ALS only offers these capabilities for four weeks out of its yearly operating schedule. With PSB operation, the ability to conduct time-of-flight experiments could be available year-round.

248

Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope Print Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope Print Initial tests of a new pseudo-single-bunch (PSB) operational mode at the ALS have shown promising results-PSB would vastly expand the facility's capacity to carry out dynamics and time-of-flight experiments with a major reduction in sample damage. In PSB operation, a single electron bunch is displaced transversely from the other electron bunches circulating in the storage ring. Experiments that require light emitted only from a single bunch can stop the light emitted from the other bunches using a collimator. Other beamlines would only see a small reduction in flux due to the displaced bunch. As a result, PSB complements the scheduling of multibunch and timing experiments-currently, the ALS only offers these capabilities for four weeks out of its yearly operating schedule. With PSB operation, the ability to conduct time-of-flight experiments could be available year-round.

249

Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope Print Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope Print Initial tests of a new pseudo-single-bunch (PSB) operational mode at the ALS have shown promising results-PSB would vastly expand the facility's capacity to carry out dynamics and time-of-flight experiments with a major reduction in sample damage. In PSB operation, a single electron bunch is displaced transversely from the other electron bunches circulating in the storage ring. Experiments that require light emitted only from a single bunch can stop the light emitted from the other bunches using a collimator. Other beamlines would only see a small reduction in flux due to the displaced bunch. As a result, PSB complements the scheduling of multibunch and timing experiments-currently, the ALS only offers these capabilities for four weeks out of its yearly operating schedule. With PSB operation, the ability to conduct time-of-flight experiments could be available year-round.

250

Expandable Metal Liner For Downhole Components  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A liner for an annular downhole component is comprised of an expandable metal tube having indentations along its surface. The indentations are formed in the wall of the tube either by drawing the tube through a die, by hydroforming, by stamping, or roll forming and may extend axially, radially, or spirally along its wall. The indentations accommodate radial and axial expansion of the tube within the downhole component. The tube is inserted into the annular component and deformed to match an inside surface of the component. The tube may be expanded using a hydroforming process or by drawing a mandrel through the tube. The tube may be expanded in such a manner so as to place it in compression against the inside wall of the component. The tube is useful for improving component hydraulics, shielding components from contamination, inhibiting corrosion, and preventing wear to the downhole component during use. It may also be useful for positioning conduit and insulated conductors within the component. An insulating material may be disposed between the tube and the component in order to prevent galvanic corrosion of the downhole component.

Hall, David R. (Provo, UT); Fox, Joe R. (Provo, UT)

2004-10-05T23:59:59.000Z

251

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

252

OpenEI Community - energy data + forecasting  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

FRED FRED http://en.openei.org/community/group/fred Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. energy data + forecasting Fri, 22 Jun 2012 15:30:20 +0000 Dbrodt 34

253

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

158 158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-48158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory

254

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025—slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in

255

FORSITE: a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

The Geothermal Site Development Forecasting System (FORSITE) is a computer-based system being developed to assist DOE geothermal program managers in monitoring the progress of multiple geothermal electric exploration and construction projects. The system will combine conceptual development schedules with site-specific status data to predict a time-phased sequence of development likely to occur at specific geothermal sites. Forecasting includes estimation of industry costs and federal manpower requirements across sites on a year-by-year basis. The main advantage of the system, which relies on reporting of major, easily detectable industry activities, is its ability to use relatively sparse data to achieve a representation of status and future development.

Entingh, D.J.; Gerstein, R.E.; Kenkeremath, L.D.; Ko, S.M.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

Widget:ExpandableBoxEnd | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ExpandableBoxEnd ExpandableBoxEnd Jump to: navigation, search The widget completes an expandable text box which can contain any standard wiki content. The box will be collapsed upon page load and can be expanded by clicking anywhere on the box. Once expanded, the box can be collapsed by clicking anywhere on the box header (the original box). Users of this widget must use the start and end variants of the widget, as shown below. While slightly less convenient for the wiki content developer to use two widgets, this allows full wikitext in the expandable text area, which would otherwise just be limited to plaintext. Parameters Parameters are set on the starting widget: Widget:ExpandableBoxStart Usage {{#Widget:ExpandableBoxStart|label=Expandable Content|icon=info}} Lorem ipsum stet dicant volumus vim no. Electram deseruisse vix no, eum modus soluta minimum at, est te aperiri dissentiunt.

257

Large eddy simulation of wind turbine wake dynamics in the stable boundary layer using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Recently an actuator disk parameterization was implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for large eddy simulation (LES) of wind turbine wakes. To thoroughly verify this model simulations of various types of turbines and atmospheric conditions must be evaluated against corresponding experimental data. In this work numerical simulations are compared to nacelle-based scanning lidar measurements taken in stable atmospheric conditions during a field campaign conducted at a wind farm in the western United States. Using several wake characteristicssuch as the velocity deficit centerline location and wake widthas metrics for model verification the simulations show good agreement with the observations. Notable results include a high average velocity deficit decreasing from 73% at a downwind distance x of 1.2 rotor diameters (D) to 25% at x?=?6.6D resulting from a low average wind speed and therefore high average turbine thrust coefficient. Moreover the wake width expands from 1.4D at x?=?1.2D to 2.3D at x?=?6.6D. Finally new featuresnamely rotor tilt and drag from the nacelle and towerare added to the existing actuator disk model in WRF-LES. Compared to the rotor the effect of the tower and nacelle on the flow is relatively small but nevertheless important for an accurate representation of the entire turbine. Adding rotor tilt to the model causes the vertical location of the wake center to shift upward. Continued advancement of the actuator disk model in WRF-LES will help lead to optimized turbine siting and controls at wind farms.

Matthew L. Aitken; Branko Kosovi?; Jeffrey D. Mirocha; Julie K. Lundquist

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach  

SciTech Connect

A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

259

Exponential smoothing model selection for forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Applications of exponential smoothing to forecasting time series usually rely on three basic methods: simple exponential smoothing, trend corrected exponential smoothing and a seasonal variation thereof. A common approach to selecting the method appropriate to a particular time series is based on prediction validation on a withheld part of the sample using criteria such as the mean absolute percentage error. A second approach is to rely on the most appropriate general case of the three methods. For annual series this is trend corrected exponential smoothing: for sub-annual series it is the seasonal adaptation of trend corrected exponential smoothing. The rationale for this approach is that a general method automatically collapses to its nested counterparts when the pertinent conditions pertain in the data. A third approach may be based on an information criterion when maximum likelihood methods are used in conjunction with exponential smoothing to estimate the smoothing parameters. In this paper, such approaches for selecting the appropriate forecasting method are compared in a simulation study. They are also compared on real time series from the M3 forecasting competition. The results indicate that the information criterion approaches provide the best basis for automated method selection, the Akaike information criteria having a slight edge over its information criteria counterparts.

Baki Billah; Maxwell L. King; Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Forecasting energy consumption of multi-family residential buildings using support vector regression: Investigating the impact of temporal and spatial monitoring granularity on performance accuracy  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Buildings are the dominant source of energy consumption and environmental emissions in urban areas. Therefore, the ability to forecast and characterize building energy consumption is vital to implementing urban energy management and efficiency initiatives required to curb emissions. Advances in smart metering technology have enabled researchers to develop sensor based approaches to forecast building energy consumption that necessitate less input data than traditional methods. Sensor-based forecasting utilizes machine learning techniques to infer the complex relationships between consumption and influencing variables (e.g., weather, time of day, previous consumption). While sensor-based forecasting has been studied extensively for commercial buildings, there is a paucity of research applying this data-driven approach to the multi-family residential sector. In this paper, we build a sensor-based forecasting model using Support Vector Regression (SVR), a commonly used machine learning technique, and apply it to an empirical data-set from a multi-family residential building in New York City. We expand our study to examine the impact of temporal (i.e., daily, hourly, 10min intervals) and spatial (i.e., whole building, by floor, by unit) granularity have on the predictive power of our single-step model. Results indicate that sensor based forecasting models can be extended to multi-family residential buildings and that the optimal monitoring granularity occurs at the by floor level in hourly intervals. In addition to implications for the development of residential energy forecasting models, our results have practical significance for the deployment and installation of advanced smart metering devices. Ultimately, accurate and cost effective wide-scale energy prediction is a vital step towards next-generation energy efficiency initiatives, which will require not only consideration of the methods, but the scales for which data can be distilled into meaningful information.

Rishee K. Jain; Kevin M. Smith; Patricia J. Culligan; John E. Taylor

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

SRS K-AREA MATERIAL STORAGE - EXPANDING CAPABILITIES  

SciTech Connect

In support of the Department of Energys continued plans to de-inventory and reduce the footprint of Cold War era weapons material production sites, the K-Area Material Storage (KAMS) facility, located in the K-Area Complex (KAC) at the Savannah River Site reservation, has expanded since its startup authorization in 2000 to accommodate DOEs material consolidation mission. During the facilitys growth and expansion, KAMS will have expanded its authorization capability of material types and storage containers to allow up to 8200 total shipping containers once the current expansion effort completes in 2014. Recognizing the need to safely and cost effectively manage other surplus material across the DOE Complex, KAC is constantly evaluating the storage of different material types within K area. When modifying storage areas in KAC, the Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) must undergo extensive calculations and reviews; however, without an extensive and proven security posture the possibility for expansion would not be possible. The KAC maintains the strictest adherence to safety and security requirements for all the SNM it handles. Disciplined Conduct of Operations and Conduct of Projects are demonstrated throughout this historical overview highlighting various improvements in capability, capacity, demonstrated cost effectiveness and utilization of the KAC as the DOE Center of Excellence for safe and secure storage of surplus SNM.

Koenig, R.

2013-07-02T23:59:59.000Z

263

Technology data characterizing refrigeration in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with COMMEND 4.0  

SciTech Connect

In the United States, energy consumption is increasing most rapidly in the commercial sector. Consequently, the commercial sector is becoming an increasingly important target for state and federal energy policies and also for utility-sponsored demand side management (DSM) programs. The rapid growth in commercial-sector energy consumption also makes it important for analysts working on energy policy and DSM issues to have access to energy end-use forecasting models that include more detailed representations of energy-using technologies in the commercial sector. These new forecasting models disaggregate energy consumption not only by fuel type, end use, and building type, but also by specific technology. The disaggregation of the refrigeration end use in terms of specific technologies, however, is complicated by several factors. First, the number of configurations of refrigeration cases and systems is quite large. Also, energy use is a complex function of the refrigeration-case properties and the refrigeration-system properties. The Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND 4.0) and the associated data development presented in this report attempt to address the above complications and create a consistent forecasting framework. Expanding end-use forecasting models so that they address individual technology options requires characterization of the present floorstock in terms of service requirements, energy technologies used, and cost-efficiency attributes of the energy technologies that consumers may choose for new buildings and retrofits. This report describes the process by which we collected refrigeration technology data. The data were generated for COMMEND 4.0 but are also generally applicable to other end-use forecasting frameworks for the commercial sector.

Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

265

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0

266

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

267

Expandable tubulars for use in geologic structures  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

An expandable tubular includes a plurality of leaves formed from sheet material that have curved surfaces. The leaves extend around a portion or fully around the diameter of the tubular structure. Some of the adjacent leaves of the tubular are coupled together. The tubular is compressed to a smaller diameter so that it can be inserted through previously deployed tubular assemblies. Once the tubular is properly positioned, it is deployed and coupled or not coupled to a previously deployed tubular assembly. The tubular is useful for all types of wells and boreholes.

Spray, Jeffery A.; Svedeman, Steven; Walter, David; Mckeighan, Peter; Siebanaler, Shane; Dewhurst, Peter; Hobson, Steven; Foss, Doug; Wirz, Holger; Sharpe, Aaron; Apostal, Michael

2014-08-12T23:59:59.000Z

268

Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Electricity consumption forecasting has been always playing a vital role in power system management and planning. Inaccurate prediction may cause wastes of scarce energy resource or electricity shortages. However, forecasting electricity consumption has proven to be a challenging task due to various unstable factors. Especially, China is undergoing a period of economic transition, which highlights this difficulty. This paper proposes a time-varying-weight combining method, i.e. High-order Markov chain based Time-varying Weighted Average (HM-TWA) method to predict the monthly electricity consumption in China. HM-TWA first calculates the in-sample time-varying combining weights by quadratic programming for the individual forecasts. Then it predicts the out-of-sample time-varying adaptive weights through extrapolating these in-sample weights using a high-order Markov chain model. Finally, the combined forecasts can be obtained. In addition, to ensure that the sample data have the same properties as the required forecasts, a reasonable multi-step-ahead forecasting scheme is designed for HM-TWA. The out-of-sample forecasting performance evaluation shows that HM-TWA outperforms the component models and traditional combining methods, and its effectiveness is further verified by comparing it with some other existing models.

Weigang Zhao; Jianzhou Wang; Haiyan Lu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

Widget:ExpandableTextEnd | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ExpandableTextEnd ExpandableTextEnd Jump to: navigation, search This widget allows text to start hidden then expand and re-hide when clicked. Users will see "....[read more]" when hidden and "[show less]" when expanded. (configurable) Users of this widget must use the Start and End variants of the widget, as shown below. While slightly less convenient for the wiki content developer to use two widgets, this allows full wikitext in the expandable text area, which would otherwise just be limited to plaintext. Parameters for this widget include: moretext - text label to show more (optional, defaults to "....[read more]") lesstext - text label to show less (optional, defaults to "[show less]") autoExpand - expand the expandable content on page load (optional,

270

DOE Takes Next Steps to Expand Strategic Petroleum Reserve to...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

to Expand Strategic Petroleum Reserve to One Billion Barrels DOE Takes Next Steps to Expand Strategic Petroleum Reserve to One Billion Barrels December 8, 2006 - 9:34am Addthis...

271

SunShot Award Helps Solar Tracking Company Expand Internationally...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

SunShot Award Helps Solar Tracking Company Expand Internationally SunShot Award Helps Solar Tracking Company Expand Internationally October 30, 2014 - 5:46pm Addthis SunShot...

272

Energy Department Expands Support of Alaska Native Clean Energy...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Expands Support of Alaska Native Clean Energy Energy Department Expands Support of Alaska Native Clean Energy December 3, 2014 - 2:30pm Addthis News Media Contact 202- 586-4940...

273

Energy Department Announces Up to $7 Million to Expand Clean...  

Energy Savers (EERE)

Energy Department Announces Up to 7 Million to Expand Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency on Tribal Lands Energy Department Announces Up to 7 Million to Expand Clean Energy and...

274

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

275

Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information for wind farm management, but they are not perfect. Chapter (more)

Mauch, Brandon Keith

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

Forecasting supply/demand and price of ethylene feedstocks  

SciTech Connect

The history of the petrochemical industry over the past ten years clearly shows that forecasting in a turbulent world is like trying to predict tomorrow's headlines.

Struth, B.W.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

278

FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast In Millions...

279

Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil erosion (Nash, 2007; Searchinger et al., 2008). On the other

Gratton, Claudio

280

New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding Print New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding Print Summary Slide One of the most satisfying aspects of condensed matter physics is that a variety of condensed matter systems show universal behavior-behavior that appears to be common to a wide variety of unrelated systems. The phenomenon of "jamming," which is similar to what happens to vehicles in traffic jams, fits into this category. Recent ALS research has revealed that even magnetic domains behave very much like other granular material systems, and their dynamical behavior mimics the universal characteristics of several jammed systems. Jamming Transitions Give Insight into Behaviors Recently, there has been much interest in jamming transitions, which were originally studied as a way to discuss the behavior of granular materials or dense assemblies of particles but have been eventually proposed as a more general and unified way of looking at dynamics of systems as diverse as structural glasses, entangled polymers, colloidal gels, supercooled liquids, and the like. Jamming is the physical process by which some materials become rigid with increasing density. Jamming occurs when the particle densities or entanglements are such that the motions of the individual particles become very restricted so that they slow down. The fluctuations that occur in a jammed system with long-range interactions are cooperative fluctuations where a local displacement causes an inhomogeneity, which is correlated with a displacement in another region.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding Print New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding Print Summary Slide One of the most satisfying aspects of condensed matter physics is that a variety of condensed matter systems show universal behavior-behavior that appears to be common to a wide variety of unrelated systems. The phenomenon of "jamming," which is similar to what happens to vehicles in traffic jams, fits into this category. Recent ALS research has revealed that even magnetic domains behave very much like other granular material systems, and their dynamical behavior mimics the universal characteristics of several jammed systems. Jamming Transitions Give Insight into Behaviors Recently, there has been much interest in jamming transitions, which were originally studied as a way to discuss the behavior of granular materials or dense assemblies of particles but have been eventually proposed as a more general and unified way of looking at dynamics of systems as diverse as structural glasses, entangled polymers, colloidal gels, supercooled liquids, and the like. Jamming is the physical process by which some materials become rigid with increasing density. Jamming occurs when the particle densities or entanglements are such that the motions of the individual particles become very restricted so that they slow down. The fluctuations that occur in a jammed system with long-range interactions are cooperative fluctuations where a local displacement causes an inhomogeneity, which is correlated with a displacement in another region.

282

New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding Print New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding Print Summary Slide One of the most satisfying aspects of condensed matter physics is that a variety of condensed matter systems show universal behavior-behavior that appears to be common to a wide variety of unrelated systems. The phenomenon of "jamming," which is similar to what happens to vehicles in traffic jams, fits into this category. Recent ALS research has revealed that even magnetic domains behave very much like other granular material systems, and their dynamical behavior mimics the universal characteristics of several jammed systems. Jamming Transitions Give Insight into Behaviors Recently, there has been much interest in jamming transitions, which were originally studied as a way to discuss the behavior of granular materials or dense assemblies of particles but have been eventually proposed as a more general and unified way of looking at dynamics of systems as diverse as structural glasses, entangled polymers, colloidal gels, supercooled liquids, and the like. Jamming is the physical process by which some materials become rigid with increasing density. Jamming occurs when the particle densities or entanglements are such that the motions of the individual particles become very restricted so that they slow down. The fluctuations that occur in a jammed system with long-range interactions are cooperative fluctuations where a local displacement causes an inhomogeneity, which is correlated with a displacement in another region.

283

New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

New Research on Jamming Behavior New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding Print Tuesday, 22 October 2013 00:00 Summary Slide One of the most satisfying aspects of condensed matter physics is that a variety of condensed matter systems show universal behavior-behavior that appears to be common to a wide variety of unrelated systems. The phenomenon of "jamming," which is similar to what happens to vehicles in traffic jams, fits into this category. Recent ALS research has revealed that even magnetic domains behave very much like other granular material systems, and their dynamical behavior mimics the universal characteristics of several jammed systems. Jamming Transitions Give Insight into Behaviors Recently, there has been much interest in jamming transitions, which were originally studied as a way to discuss the behavior of granular materials or dense assemblies of particles but have been eventually proposed as a more general and unified way of looking at dynamics of systems as diverse as structural glasses, entangled polymers, colloidal gels, supercooled liquids, and the like. Jamming is the physical process by which some materials become rigid with increasing density. Jamming occurs when the particle densities or entanglements are such that the motions of the individual particles become very restricted so that they slow down. The fluctuations that occur in a jammed system with long-range interactions are cooperative fluctuations where a local displacement causes an inhomogeneity, which is correlated with a displacement in another region.

284

"Phase freezeout" in isentropically expanding matter  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Features of isentropic expansion of warm dense matter (WDM) created by intense energy fluxes (strong shock compression or instant isochoric heating by laser or heavy ions) are under discussion in situation when ($i$) -- thermodynamic trajectory of such expansion crosses binodal of liquid-gas phase transition, and ($ii$) -- expansion within the two-phase region is going along equilibrium branch (not metastable one) of the two-phase mixture isentrope. It is known in the plane case that because of break in the expansion isentrope at binodal point (in $P-V$ plane) i.e. jump of sound velocity in this point, there appears extended zone ("boiling layer") of uniformity in expanding material with constant thermodynamic and kinematic parameters. It corresponds just to the state on this binodal of boiling liquid. The point is that because of self-similarity of such expansion (in plane case) this boiling layer contains finite and fixed part of whole expanding material. This property makes it possible (at least formally) ...

Iosilevskiy, Igor

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing, often used in sales forecasting for inventory control, has always been rationalized in terms of statistical models that possess errors with constant variances. It is shown in this paper that exponential smoothing remains appropriate under more general conditions, where the variance is allowed to grow or contract with corresponding movements in the underlying level. The implications for estimation and prediction are explored. In particular, the problem of finding the predictive distribution of aggregate lead-time demand, for use in inventory control calculations, is considered using a bootstrap approach. A method for establishing order-up-to levels directly from the simulated predictive distribution is also explored.

Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler; J.Keith Ord

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Widget:ExpandableBoxStart | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ExpandableBoxStart ExpandableBoxStart Jump to: navigation, search The widget creates an expandable text box which can contain any standard wiki content. The box will be collapsed upon page load and can be expanded by clicking anywhere on the box. Once expanded, the box can be collapsed by clicking anywhere on the box header (the original box). Users of this widget must use the Start and End variants of the widget, as shown below. While slightly less convenient for the wiki content developer to use two widgets, this allows full wikitext in the expandable text area, which would otherwise just be limited to plaintext. Note: You must also use the accompanying variant of this widget: Widget:ExpandableBoxEnd Parameters label - text label of the box header (optional, default "More

287

Nonlinear Gravitational Clustering in Expanding Universe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The gravitational clustering of collisionless particles in an expanding universe is modelled using some simple physical ideas. I show that it is possible to understand the nonlinear clustering in terms of three well defined regimes: (1) linear regime; (2) quasilinear regime which is dominated by scale-invariant radial infall and (3) nonlinear regime dominated by nonradial motions and mergers. Modelling each of these regimes separately I show how the nonlinear two point correlation function can be related to the linear correlation function in hierarchical models. This analysis leads to results which are in good agreement with numerical simulations thereby providing an explanation for numerical results. Using this model and some simple extensions, it is possible to understand the transfer of power from large to small scales and the behaviour of higher order correlation functions. The ideas presented here will also serve as a powerful analytical tool to investigate nonlinear clustering in different models.

T. Padmanabhan

1996-07-19T23:59:59.000Z

288

Random switching exponential smoothing and inventory forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Exponential smoothing models represent an important prediction tool both in business and in macroeconomics. This paper provides the analytical forecasting properties of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model in the multiple source of error framework. The random coefficient state-space representation allows for switching between simple exponential smoothing and local linear trend. Therefore it enables controlling, in a flexible manner, the random changing dynamic behavior of the time series. The paper establishes the algebraic mapping between the state-space parameters and the implied reduced form ARIMA parameters. In addition, it shows that the parametric mapping allows overcoming the difficulties that are likely to emerge in estimating directly the random coefficient state-space model. Finally, it presents an empirical application comparing the forecast accuracy of the suggested model vis--vis other benchmark models, both in the ARIMA and in the exponential smoothing class. Using time series relative to wholesalers inventories in the USA, the out-of-sample results show that the reduced form of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model tends to be superior to its competitors.

Giacomo Sbrana; Andrea Silvestrini

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Expert Panel: Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes March 1999 Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes September 25-26, 1998 Arlington, Virginia The Expert Panel ............................................................................................. Page 1 Charge To The Expert Panel........................................................................... Page 2 Executive Summary......................................................................................... Page 3 Introduction ...................................................................................................... Page 4 Rationale.......................................................................................................... Page 6 Economic Analysis...........................................................................................

291

A robust automatic phase-adjustment method for financial forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this work we present the robust automatic phase-adjustment (RAA) method to overcome the random walk dilemma for financial time series forecasting. It consists of a hybrid model composed of a qubit multilayer perceptron (QuMLP) with a quantum-inspired ... Keywords: Financial forecasting, Hybrid models, Quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm, Qubit multilayer perceptron, Random walk dilemma

Ricardo de A. Arajo

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

Heinemann, Detlev

293

Developing electricity forecast web tool for Kosovo market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper is presented a web tool for electricity forecast for Kosovo market for the upcoming ten years. The input data i.e. electricity generation capacities, demand and consume are taken from the document "Kosovo Energy Strategy 2009-2018" compiled ... Keywords: .NET, database, electricity forecast, internet, simulation, web

Blerim Rexha; Arben Ahmeti; Lule Ahmedi; Vjollca Komoni

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

Keller, Arturo A.

295

Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size. On the other hand if forecasted high production events do not occur, the cost of de- optimisation Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

296

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

297

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

Washington at Seattle, University of

298

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

Hansens, Jim

299

Improving baseline forecasts in a 500-industry dynamic CGE model of the USA.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??MONASH-style CGE models have been used to generate baseline forecasts illustrating how an economy is likely to evolve through time. One application of such forecasts (more)

Mavromatis, Peter George

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

E-Print Network 3.0 - africa conditional forecasts Sample Search...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: africa conditional forecasts Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA  

SciTech Connect

In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing quasi-deterministic components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

302

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion

303

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy and Economic Outlook Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)

304

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center on 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 36. Increase in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country, 2002-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data

305

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses three current energy issues—electricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis

306

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector In the IEO2005 projections, end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors varies widely among regions and from country to country. One way of looking at the future of world energy markets is to consider trends in energy consumption at the end-use sector level. With the exception of the transportation sector, which is almost universally dominated by petroleum products at present, the mix of energy use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can vary widely from country to country, depending on a combination of regional factors, such as the availability of energy resources, the level of economic development, and political, social, and demographic factors. This chapter outlines the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) forecast for regional energy consumption by end-use sector.

307

Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Adaptive exponential smoothing methods allow smoothing parameters to change over time, in order to adapt to changes in the characteristics of the time series. This paper presents a new adaptive method for predicting the volatility in financial returns. It enables the smoothing parameter to vary as a logistic function of user-specified variables. The approach is analogous to that used to model time-varying parameters in smooth transition generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models. These non-linear models allow the dynamics of the conditional variance model to be influenced by the sign and size of past shocks. These factors can also be used as transition variables in the new smooth transition exponential smoothing (STES) approach. Parameters are estimated for the method by minimising the sum of squared deviations between realised and forecast volatility. Using stock index data, the new method gave encouraging results when compared to fixed parameter exponential smoothing and a variety of GARCH models.

James W. Taylor

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

309

Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production.

Jianzhou Wang; Yao Dong; Jie Wu; Ren Mu; He Jiang

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

Nebraska Company Expands to Meet Demand for Hydrogen Fuel | Department...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

posted a blog about Hexagon Lincoln, a company that creates carbon fiber composite fuel tanks used to transport hydrogen across the country. Read Nebraska Company Expands to Meet...

311

Beyond Patient Health Escalating populations, expanding urban environments, poverty,  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

resistance, ozone depletion, asthma and heavy metal toxicity · The program also supports student and facultyBeyond Patient Health Escalating populations, expanding urban environments, poverty, pollution

Denham, Graham

312

Expanded "Green Button" Will Reach Federal Agencies and More...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

"Green Button" Will Reach Federal Agencies and More American Energy Consumers Expanded "Green Button" Will Reach Federal Agencies and More American Energy Consumers December 6,...

313

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

Measuring the forecasting accuracy of models: evidence from industrialised countries  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper uses the approach suggested by Akrigay (1989), Tse and Tung (1992) and Dimson and Marsh (1990) to examine the forecasting accuracy of stock price index models for industrialised markets. The focus of this paper is to compare the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of three models, that is, the Random Walk model, the Single Exponential Smoothing model and the Conditional Heteroskedastic model with the MAPE of the benchmark Naive Forecast 1 case. We do not evidence that a single model to provide better forecasting accuracy results compared to other models.

Athanasios Koulakiotis; Apostolos Dasilas

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

18 Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 201314 Hazards, warnings and forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and numerical prediction models. #12;19Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2013­14 2 Performance Performance programs: · Weather forecasting services; · Flood forecasting and warning services; · Hazard prediction, Warnings and Forecasts portfolio provides a range of forecast and warning services covering weather, ocean

Greenslade, Diana

316

Wind power forecast error smoothing within a wind farm  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Smoothing of wind power forecast errors is well-known for large areas. Comparable effects within a wind farm are investigated in this paper. A Neural Network was taken to predict the power output of a wind farm in north-western Germany comprising 17 turbines. A comparison was done between an algorithm that fits mean wind and mean power data of the wind farm and a second algorithm that fits wind and power data individually for each turbine. The evaluation of root mean square errors (RMSE) shows that relative small smoothing effects occur. However, it can be shown for this wind farm that individual calculations have the advantage that only a few turbines are needed to give better results than the use of mean data. Furthermore different results occurred if predicted wind speeds are directly fitted to observed wind power or if predicted wind speeds are first fitted to observed wind speeds and then applied to a power curve. The first approach gives slightly better RMSE values, the bias improves considerably.

Nadja Saleck; Lueder von Bremen

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

FOAM: Expanding the Horizons of Climate Michael Tobis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

on a project that expands the applicability of dynamic climate modeling to very long time scales. The FastFOAM: Expanding the Horizons of Climate Modeling Michael Tobis Mathematics and Computer Science passing, scientific supercomputing, climate, meteorology, oceanography, hydrology #12;Introduction Climate

318

Proton corebeam system in the expanding solar wind: Hybrid simulations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Proton corebeam system in the expanding solar wind: Hybrid simulations Petr Hellinger1,2 and Pavel. Trávnícek (2011), Proton corebeam system in the expanding solar wind: Hybrid simulations, J. Geophys. Res beamcore system in the solar wind are presented. The expansion with a strictly radial magnetic field leads

California at Berkeley, University of

319

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Agency/Company /Organization: Energy Sector Management Assistance Program of the World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area: Non-renewable Energy Topics: Baseline projection, Co-benefits assessment, GHG inventory Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Spreadsheet Complexity/Ease of Use: Simple Website: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Cost: Free Equivalent URI: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Screenshot

320

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasting Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels MICHAEL YE, ∗ JOHN ZYREN, ∗∗ AND JOANNE SHORE ∗∗ Abstract This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermedi- ate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigat- ing the impacts of changes on price, should inventories,

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

Choi, Han-Lim

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Seasonal Prediction · POAMA · Issues for future Outline #12;Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Major source Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program El Nino Mean State · Easterlies westward surface current upwelling

Lim, Eun-pa

323

Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive ...

Yang, Xiaorong

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Exponential smoothing with covariates applied to electricity demand forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in industry and business. Their usual formulation, however, does not allow covariates to be used for introducing extra information into the forecasting process. In this paper, we analyse an extension of the exponential smoothing formulation that allows the use of covariates and the joint estimation of all the unknowns in the model, which improves the forecasting results. The whole procedure is detailed with a real example on forecasting the daily demand for electricity in Spain. The time series of daily electricity demand contains two seasonal patterns: here the within-week seasonal cycle is modelled as usual in exponential smoothing, while the within-year cycle is modelled using covariates, specifically two harmonic explanatory variables. Calendar effects, such as national and local holidays and vacation periods, are also introduced using covariates. [Received 28 September 2010; Revised 6 March 2011, 2 October 2011; Accepted 16 October 2011

José D. Bermúdez

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Initial conditions estimation for improving forecast accuracy in exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper we analyze the importance of initial conditions in exponential smoothing models on forecast errors and prediction intervals. We work with certain exponential smoothing models, namely Holts additive...

E. Vercher; A. Corbern-Vallet; J. V. Segura; J. D. Bermdez

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

A Bayesian approach to forecast intermittent demand for seasonal products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper investigates the forecasting of a large fluctuating seasonal demand prior to peak sale season using a practical time series, collected from the US Census Bureau. Due to the extreme natural events (e.g. excessive snow fall and calamities), sales may not occur, inventory may not replenish and demand may set off unrecorded during the peak sale season. This characterises a seasonal time series to an intermittent category. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), a multiplicative exponential smoothing (M-ES) and an effective modelling approach using Bayesian computational process are analysed in the context of seasonal and intermittent forecast. Several forecast error indicators and a cost factor are used to compare the models. In cost factor analysis, cost is measured optimally using dynamic programming model under periodic review policy. Experimental results demonstrate that Bayesian model performance is much superior to SARIMA and M-ES models, and efficient to forecast seasonal and intermittent demand.

Mohammad Anwar Rahman; Bhaba R. Sarker

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

Review/Verify Strategic Skills Needs/Forecasts/Future Mission...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

ReviewVerify Strategic Skills NeedsForecastsFuture Mission Shifts Annual Lab Plan (1-10 yrs) Fermilab Strategic Agenda (2-5 yrs) Sector program Execution Plans (1-3...

328

A Parameter for Forecasting Tornadoes Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors develop a statistical guidance product, the tropical cyclone tornado parameter (TCTP), for forecasting the probability of one or more tornadoes during a 6-h period that are associated with landfalling tropical cyclones affecting the ...

Matthew J. Onderlinde; Henry E. Fuelberg

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power

Kemner, Ken

330

2007 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report James L. Franklin  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

storms 17 4. Genesis Forecasts 17 5. Summary and Concluding Remarks 18 a. Atlantic Summary 18 statistical models, provided the best intensity guidance at each time period. The 2007 season marked the first

331

Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data  

SciTech Connect

This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

NONE

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

333

Evolutionary Optimization of an Ice Accretion Forecasting System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The ability to model and forecast accretion of ice on structures is very important for many industrial sectors. For example, studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures are caused by icing on ...

Pawel Pytlak; Petr Musilek; Edward Lozowski; Dan Arnold

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

Diagnosing the Origin of Extended-Range Forecast Errors  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Experiments with the ECMWF model are carried out to study the influence that a correct representation of the lower boundary conditions, the tropical atmosphere, and the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere would have on extended-range forecast skill ...

T. Jung; M. J. Miller; T. N. Palmer

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Application of an Improved SVM Algorithm for Wind Speed Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An improved Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm is used to forecast wind in Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind power system without aerodromometer. The ... Validation (CV) method. Finally, 3.6MW DFIG w...

Huaqiang Zhang; Xinsheng Wang; Yinxiao Wu

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

Research on Development Trends of Power Load Forecasting Methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In practical problem, number of samples is often limited, for complex issues such as power load forecasting, generally available historical data and information of impact factor are very ... support vector mechan...

Litong Dong; Jun Xu; Haibo Liu; Ying Guo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

Representing Forecast Error in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensembles provide an opportunity to greatly improve short-term prediction of local weather hazards, yet generating reliable predictions remain a significant challenge. In particular, convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems (CPEFSs) have ...

Glen S. Romine; Craig S. Schwartz; Judith Berner; Kathryn R. Fossell; Chris Snyder; Jeff L. Anderson; Morris L. Weisman

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

Weather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

................................................................................................. 20 3.1.2 Integrate's Flow of ControlWeather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation: A Step-by-step guide of a Model Run .......................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 The Integrate Subroutine

Sadjadi, S. Masoud

339

Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network  

SciTech Connect

With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

340

Wind Speed Forecasting Using a Hybrid Neural-Evolutive Approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The design of models for time series prediction has found a solid foundation on statistics. Recently, artificial neural networks have been a good choice as approximators to model and forecast time series. Designing a neural network that provides a good ...

Juan J. Flores; Roberto Loaeza; Hctor Rodrguez; Erasmo Cadenas

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Using Microfinance to Expand Access to Energy Services | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Using Microfinance to Expand Access to Energy Services Using Microfinance to Expand Access to Energy Services Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Using Microfinance to Expand Access to Energy Services Agency/Company /Organization: United States Agency for International Development Sector: Energy Focus Area: Renewable Energy Topics: Co-benefits assessment, - Energy Access, Finance Resource Type: Case studies/examples, Lessons learned/best practices, Publications Website: waterwiki.net/images/6/65/File_Energy_Summary_FINAL.pdf Language: English References: Using Microfinance to Expand Access to Energy Services[1] Logo: Using Microfinance to Expand Access to Energy Services "To carry out this research, SES and the SEEP Network invited MFIs in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to participate in an

342

Bush Administration to Expand Beryllium Disease Screening Program |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Bush Administration to Expand Beryllium Disease Screening Program Bush Administration to Expand Beryllium Disease Screening Program Bush Administration to Expand Beryllium Disease Screening Program February 23, 2005 - 10:27am Addthis Former employees of DOE vendors eligible for free screening WASHINGTON, DC - U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman today announced the Department of Energy (DOE) will expand a beryllium screening program to include former employees of now-defunct DOE beryllium vendor companies across the country. Beryllium is a component used in nuclear weapons built by the Department of Energy. "Through no fault of their own, these Cold Warriors were left out in the cold when their former employers went out of business. By expanding this screening program, President Bush and the Department of Energy honor these

343

A model for short term electric load forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

Tigue, John Robert

1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

344

Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing... measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing...

Peyraud, Lionel

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

345

Regulatory Considerations Associated with the Expanded Adoption of Distributed Solar  

SciTech Connect

Increased adoption of distributed PV, and other forms of distributed generation, have the potential to affect utility-customer interactions, system costs recovery, and utility revenue streams. If a greater number of electricity customers choose to self-generate, demand for system power will decrease and utility fixed costs will have to be recovered over fewer kilowatt hours of sales. As such, regulators will need to determine the value and cost of additional distributed PV and determine the appropriate allocation of the costs and benefits among consumers. The potential for new business models to emerge also has implications for regulation and rate structures that ensure equitable solutions for all electricity grid users. This report examines regulatory tools and rate designs for addressing emerging issues with the expanded adoption of distributed PV and evaluates the potential effectiveness and viability of these options going forward. It offers the groundwork needed in order for regulators to explore mechanisms and ensure that utilities can collect sufficient revenues to provide reliable electric service, cover fixed costs, and balance cost equity among ratepayers -- while creating a value proposition for customers to adopt distributed PV.

Bird, L.; McLaren, J.; Heeter, J.; Linvill, C.; Shenot, J.; Sedano, R.; Migden-Ostrander, J.

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Forecast Comparisons Table 32. Forecasts of annual average economic growth, 2003-2025 Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2003-2009 2003-2014 2003-2025 AEO2004 3.5 3.2 3.0 AEO2005 Reference 3.4 3.3 3.1 Low growth 2.9 2.8 2.5 High growth 4.1 3.9 3.6 GII 3.4 3.2 3.1 OMB 3.6 NA NA CBO 3.5 3.1 NA OEF 3.5 3.5 NA Only one other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2005. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as other forecasts that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy

347

Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields  

SciTech Connect

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

2005-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

348

Wave height forecasting in Dayyer, the Persian Gulf  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Forecasting of wave parameters is necessary for many marine and coastal operations. Different forecasting methodologies have been developed using the wind and wave characteristics. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) as a robust data learning method is used to forecast the wave height for the next 3, 6, 12 and 24h in the Persian Gulf. To determine the effective parameters, different models with various combinations of input parameters were considered. Parameters such as wind speed, direction and wave height of the previous 3h, were found to be the best inputs. Furthermore, using the difference between wave and wind directions showed better performance. The results also indicated that if only the wind parameters are used as model inputs the accuracy of the forecasting increases as the time horizon increases up to 6h. This can be due to the lower influence of previous wave heights on larger lead time forecasting and the existing lag between the wind and wave growth. It was also found that in short lead times, the forecasted wave heights primarily depend on the previous wave heights, while in larger lead times there is a greater dependence on previous wind speeds.

B. Kamranzad; A. Etemad-Shahidi; M.H. Kazeminezhad

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of the Department of Energy's Office of Industrial Technologies, EIA extracted energy use infonnation from the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) - 2000 (8) for each of the seven # The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute...-6, 2000 NEMS The NEMS industrial module is the official forecasting model for EIA and thus the Department of Energy. For this reason, the energy prices and output forecasts used to drive the ITEMS model were taken from EIA's AEO 2000. Understanding...

Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

350

Widget:ExpandableTextStart | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ExpandableTextStart ExpandableTextStart Jump to: navigation, search This widget allows text to start hidden then expand and re-hide when clicked. Users will see "....[read more]" when hidden and "[show less]" when expanded. (configurable in Widget:ExpandableTextEnd) This widget does not allow any parameters. Users of this widget must use the Start and End variants of the widget, as shown below. While slightly less convenient for the wiki content developer to use two widgets, this allows full wikitext in the expandable text area, which would otherwise just be limited to plaintext. Usage: Be what you would seem to be - or if you'd like it put more simply {{#Widget:ExpandableTextStart}}- Never imagine yourself not to be otherwise than what it might appear to others that what you were or might have been was not otherwise than what you had been would have appeared to them to be otherwise. Lewis Carroll (1832 - 1898) from '''Alice's Adventures in Wonderland and Through the Looking Glass.'''

351

Telecommunications Networks Planning and Evaluation with Techno-Economic Criteria  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Telecommunications Networks Planning and Evaluation with Techno-Economic Criteria Dimitris Katsianis Department of Informatics and Telecommunications, University of Athens Panepistimiopolis Ilissia: Techno-economic Analysis, Telecommunications, Demand Forecast, Real Options, Game Theory, Investments

Kouroupetroglou, Georgios

352

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil Markets Oil Markets IEO2005 projects that world crude oil prices in real 2003 dollars will decline from their current level by 2010, then rise gradually through 2025. In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world demand for crude oil grows from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per day in 2015 and to just over 119 million barrels per day in 2025. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the emerging Asian nations, where strong economic growth results in a robust increase in oil demand. Emerging Asia (including China and India) accounts for 45 percent of the total world increase in oil use over the forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case. The projected increase in world oil demand would require an increment to world production capability of more than 42 million barrels per day relative to the 2002 crude oil production capacity of 80.0 million barrels per day. Producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major source of production increases. In addition, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain highly competitive, with major increments to supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa. The estimates of incremental production are based on current proved reserves and a country-by-country assessment of ultimately recoverable petroleum. In the IEO2005 oil price cases, the substantial investment capital required to produce the incremental volumes is assumed to exist, and the investors are expected to receive at least a 10-percent return on investment.

353

Corporate Property Tax Reduction for New/Expanded Generating Facilities |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Property Tax Reduction for New/Expanded Generating Property Tax Reduction for New/Expanded Generating Facilities Corporate Property Tax Reduction for New/Expanded Generating Facilities < Back Eligibility Commercial Industrial Savings Category Bioenergy Alternative Fuel Vehicles Hydrogen & Fuel Cells Buying & Making Electricity Solar Home Weatherization Water Wind Program Info State Montana Program Type Property Tax Incentive Rebate Amount Taxable value reduced by 50% for 5 years; reduction in taxable value declines each year thereafter until there is no reduction in tenth year. Provider Montana Department of Revenue Montana generating plants producing one megawatt (MW) or more with an alternative renewable energy source are eligible for the new or expanded industry property tax reduction. This incentive reduces the local mill levy

354

Energy Department Expands Technical Assistance for Tribal Energy Projects |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Energy Department Expands Technical Assistance for Tribal Energy Energy Department Expands Technical Assistance for Tribal Energy Projects Energy Department Expands Technical Assistance for Tribal Energy Projects January 30, 2013 - 10:44am Addthis News Media Contact (202) 586-4940 WASHINGTON - As part of the Obama Administration's efforts to help Tribal communities across the country enhance their energy security and build a sustainable energy future, the Energy Department today announced the second round of the Strategic Technical Assistance Response Team (START) Program, which provides federally recognized Tribal governments with technical assistance to accelerate clean energy project deployment. Additionally, the Energy Department plans to seek information from Tribes interested in launching or expanding utility services in their own

355

Arizona Foundation Expands Weatherization Training Center | Department of  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Arizona Foundation Expands Weatherization Training Center Arizona Foundation Expands Weatherization Training Center Arizona Foundation Expands Weatherization Training Center September 22, 2010 - 10:21am Addthis Stephen Graff Former Writer & editor for Energy Empowers, EERE To an outsider, Arizona's Foundation for Senior Living (FSL) probably sounds like an organization that deals just with retired folks. But a closer look reveals a more diverse organization. Not only does the 35-year-old nonprofit perform energy upgrades for low-income residents, but in Maricopa County and the Phoenix area it also trains a good part of the weatherization workforce to do that. Expanding building science Since 2004, more than 1,450 people have completed programs at the Foundation's weatherization training center. Now, because of Weatherization

356

Event:Expanded Constituency Workshop for West Africa | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Expanded Constituency Workshop for West Africa Expanded Constituency Workshop for West Africa Jump to: navigation, search Calendar.png Expanded Constituency Workshop for West Africa: on 2012/09/04 The Global Environment Facility (GEF) is holding an Expanded Constituency Workshop (ECW) for West Africa, as part of the GEF Country Support Programme, including participants from Benin, Cote D'Ivoire, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra leone, Guinea and Togo. The workshop will bring together representatives from civil society, the GEF Secretariat and GEF Agencies, with focal points of the biodiversity, desertification, climate change, and chemicals conventions to discuss activities with global environmental benefits. Civil society organizations are invited to register at the meeting website. Runs September 4 - 6

357

Savings to Chew On: Wrigley Expands Commitment to Sustainability |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Savings to Chew On: Wrigley Expands Commitment to Sustainability Savings to Chew On: Wrigley Expands Commitment to Sustainability Savings to Chew On: Wrigley Expands Commitment to Sustainability February 19, 2013 - 12:00pm Addthis Wrigley Manufacturing Company is using solar energy to help run its Altoids manufacturing plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee. | Photo courtesy of Chris Davis, Tennessee Solar Institute. Wrigley Manufacturing Company is using solar energy to help run its Altoids manufacturing plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee. | Photo courtesy of Chris Davis, Tennessee Solar Institute. Julie McAlpin Communications Liaison, State Energy Program Interested in more projects like this? Visit the State Energy Program website. Known for chewing gum and candy products, Wrigley Manufacturing Company recently expanded its commitment to sustainability and is collecting solar

358

Obama Administration Expands Better Buildings Challenge to Multifamily  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Obama Administration Expands Better Buildings Challenge to Obama Administration Expands Better Buildings Challenge to Multifamily Housing, Launches New Programs to Boost U.S. Energy Efficiency Obama Administration Expands Better Buildings Challenge to Multifamily Housing, Launches New Programs to Boost U.S. Energy Efficiency December 3, 2013 - 9:45am Addthis News Media Contact (202) 586-4940 WASHINGTON - Building on $2 billion in financing commitments from the private sector for energy efficiency updates to commercial buildings under the President's Better Buildings Challenge, the U.S. Departments of Energy and Housing and Urban Development today expanded the Challenge to multifamily housing such as apartments and condominiums and launched the Better Buildings Accelerators to support state- and local government-led

359

Oregon Solar Company Expands, Hires Soldiers | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Solar Company Expands, Hires Soldiers Solar Company Expands, Hires Soldiers Oregon Solar Company Expands, Hires Soldiers November 12, 2010 - 1:34pm Addthis SolarWorld received an $82 million tax manufacturing tax credit for expansion of its Hillsboro, Ore., solar plant. They project SolarWorld received an $82 million tax manufacturing tax credit for expansion of its Hillsboro, Ore., solar plant. They project Stephen Graff Former Writer & editor for Energy Empowers, EERE What are the key facts? SolarWorld received $82 million tax credit to expand their plant Created about 400 new jobs in Hillsboro, Oregon, area Increased solar panel capacity from 140 MW to 500 MW per year With six kids and a wife, 32 year-old Tobin Tidwell of Hillsboro, Ore., didn't want to pick up and move for a new job. But the Army reservist,

360

Arizona Foundation Expands Weatherization Training Center | Department of  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Arizona Foundation Expands Weatherization Training Center Arizona Foundation Expands Weatherization Training Center Arizona Foundation Expands Weatherization Training Center September 22, 2010 - 10:21am Addthis Stephen Graff Former Writer & editor for Energy Empowers, EERE To an outsider, Arizona's Foundation for Senior Living (FSL) probably sounds like an organization that deals just with retired folks. But a closer look reveals a more diverse organization. Not only does the 35-year-old nonprofit perform energy upgrades for low-income residents, but in Maricopa County and the Phoenix area it also trains a good part of the weatherization workforce to do that. Expanding building science Since 2004, more than 1,450 people have completed programs at the Foundation's weatherization training center. Now, because of Weatherization

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Nitrogen expander cycles for large capacity liquefaction of natural gas  

SciTech Connect

Thermodynamic study is performed on nitrogen expander cycles for large capacity liquefaction of natural gas. In order to substantially increase the capacity, a Brayton refrigeration cycle with nitrogen expander was recently added to the cold end of the reputable propane pre-cooled mixed-refrigerant (C3-MR) process. Similar modifications with a nitrogen expander cycle are extensively investigated on a variety of cycle configurations. The existing and modified cycles are simulated with commercial process software (Aspen HYSYS) based on selected specifications. The results are compared in terms of thermodynamic efficiency, liquefaction capacity, and estimated size of heat exchangers. The combination of C3-MR with partial regeneration and pre-cooling of nitrogen expander cycle is recommended to have a great potential for high efficiency and large capacity.

Chang, Ho-Myung; Park, Jae Hoon; Gwak, Kyung Hyun [Hong Ik University, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Seoul, 121-791 (Korea, Republic of); Choe, Kun Hyung [Korea Gas Corporation, Incheon, 406-130 (Korea, Republic of)

2014-01-29T23:59:59.000Z

362

Accounting for Sustained Volunteering by Young People: An Expanded TPB  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study tested an expanded TBP model, which included personal norms and self-identity as cognitive variables, in a sample of current young volunteers of a general charity in the UK. Actual volunteering was ...

Tania Veludo-de-Oliveira; John G. Pallister

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

Emerging information technology and the expanding role of technical communicators  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Emerging information technology is expanding the role of technical communicators. Functionality present in software tools contributes to a re-definition of what tasks technical communicators currently perform and how they will use object management...

McGuire, Richard Charles

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

364

Sandia National Laboratories: help U.S. PV industry expand  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

help U.S. PV industry expand Photovoltaic (PV) Regional Test Center (RTC) Website Goes Live On February 26, 2013, in Energy, National Solar Thermal Test Facility, News, News &...

365

Expandable house : for disaster relief and flexible dwelling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In March 2011, a devastating earthquake and tsunami struck northern Japan. In addition to the lives lost, thousands of people were dislocated, resulting in an urgent need for housing. My approach is to design the Expandable ...

Chu, Mimi Ho

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Natural gas liquifier based on an EGD-generator-expander  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Versions are considered for preparing liquefied natural gas (LNG) in liquefiers with different cold producing units; with a throttle valve, a vortex tube, a turbo-expander. A short analysis is given for their ......

G. I. Bumagin; D. V. Borodin; A. G. Lapkova

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

Stability of an expanding bubble in the Rayleigh model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A bubble expands adiabatically in an incompressible, inviscid liquid. The variation of its radiusR with time is given by the Rayleighs equation. We find that the bubble is stable at the equilibrium point in this...

B. B. Chakraborty; Dinesh Khattar

1999-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

EECBG Success Story: Alabama Justice Center Expands its Solar...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Justice Center Expands its Solar Capabilities The roof of the justice center where a solar panel array will be installed to power a solar thermal water-heating system | Photo...

369

DOE Expands International Effort to Develop Fuel-Efficient Trucks |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Expands International Effort to Develop Fuel-Efficient Trucks Expands International Effort to Develop Fuel-Efficient Trucks DOE Expands International Effort to Develop Fuel-Efficient Trucks June 30, 2008 - 2:15pm Addthis GOTHENBURG, SWEDEN - U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Alexander Karsner and Volvo Group CEO Leif Johansson today agreed to expand cooperation to develop more fuel-efficient trucks. Once contractual negotiations are complete later this year, the cooperative program will be extended for three more years. An additional $9 million over three years in DOE funds will be matched by $9 million in Swedish government funds and $18 million from Volvo Group. When added with the existing $12 million commitment from the United States, Sweden and the Volvo Group the overall value of the cooperation will be $48

370

Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012  

SciTech Connect

This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

Exponential cosmological redshift in a linearly expanding universe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Analytical solution of the Maxwell equations in a flat expanding Friedmann-Robertson-Walker space-time is presented. The solution is valid for arbitrary sources and for expansion rates described by positive functions of time. The near-, intermediate-, and far-field terms are explicitly identified. It is shown that the cosmological redshift introduced by a linearly expanding space-time is an exponential function of the distance factor.

Budko, Neil V

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

An assessment of electrical load forecasting using artificial neural network  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the major research fields in electrical engineering. The supply industry requires forecasts with lead times, which range from the short term (a few minutes, hours, or days ahead) to the long term (up to 20 years ahead). The major priority for an electrical power utility is to provide uninterrupted power supply to its customers. Long term peak load forecasting plays an important role in electrical power systems in terms of policy planning and budget allocation. This paper presents a peak load forecasting model using artificial neural networks (ANN). The approach in the paper is based on multi-layered back-propagation feed forward neural network. For annual forecasts, there should be 10 to 12 years of historical monthly data available for each electrical system or electrical buss. A case study is performed by using the proposed method of peak load data of a state electricity board of India which maintain high quality, reliable, historical data providing the best possible results. Model's quality is directly dependent upon data integrity.

V. Shrivastava; R.B. Misra; R.C. Bansal

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

375

Numerical Simulation of 2010 Pakistan Flood in the Kabul River Basin by Using Lagged Ensemble Rainfall Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Lagged ensemble forecasting of rainfall and rainfallrunoffinundation (RRI) forecasting were applied to the devastating flood in the Kabul River basin, the first strike of the 2010 Pakistan flood. The forecasts were performed using the Global ...

Tomoki Ushiyama; Takahiro Sayama; Yuya Tatebe; Susumu Fujioka; Kazuhiko Fukami

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

376

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and stimulate biomedical research. The expert panel recommends that the U.S. government build this capability around either a reactor, an accelerator or a combination of both technologies as long as isotopes for clinical and research applications can be supplied reliably, with diversity in adequate

377

Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection criterion is introduced into the forecasting scheme for selecting the most adequate multivariate model for describing the behaviour of the time series under study. The forecasting performance of this procedure is tested using some real examples.

Ana Corbern-Vallet; Jos D. Bermdez; Enriqueta Vercher

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

378

Application of GIS on forecasting water disaster in coal mines  

SciTech Connect

In many coal mines of China, water disasters occur very frequently. It is the most important problem that water gets inrush into drifts and coal faces, locally known as water gush, during extraction and excavation. Its occurrence is controlled by many factors such as geological, hydrogeological and mining technical conditions, and very difficult to be predicted and prevented by traditional methods. By making use of overlay analysis of Geographic Information System, a multi-factor model can be built to forecast the potential of water gush. This paper introduced the method of establishment of the water disaster forecasting system and forecasting model and two practical successful cases of application in Jiaozuo and Yinzhuang coal mines. The GIS proved helpful for ensuring the safety of coal mines.

Sun Yajun; Jiang Dong; Ji Jingxian [China Univ. of Mining and Technology, Jiangshy (China)] [and others

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

Forecasting the daily outbreak of topic-level political risk from social media using hidden Markov model-based techniques  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Nowadays, as an arena of politics, social media ignites political protests, so analyzing topics discussed negatively in the social media has increased in importance for detecting a nation's political risk. In this context, this paper designs and examines an automatic approach to forecast the daily outbreak of political risk from social media at a topic level. It evaluates the forecasting performances of topic features, investigated among the previous works that analyze social media data for politics, hidden Markov model (HMM)-based techniques, widely used for the anomaly detection with time-series data, and detection models, into which the topic features and the detection techniques are combined. When applied to South Korea's Web forum, Daum Agora, statistical comparisons with the constraints of false positive rate of political risk, and eventually the predictive governance benefits the people.

Jong Hwan Suh

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF) over the last 15 years, with varying degrees of success. This review article aims to explain the complexity of available solutions, their strengths and weaknesses, and the opportunities and threats that the forecasting tools offer or that may be encountered. The paper also looks ahead and speculates on the directions EPF will or should take in the next decade or so. In particular, it postulates the need for objective comparative EPF studies involving (i) the same datasets, (ii) the same robust error evaluation procedures, and (iii) statistical testing of the significance of one models outperformance of another.

Rafa? Weron

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy Forecasting and Modeling Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Geraly Amador Clayton Barrows Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Carolyn Davidson Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Aron Dobos Easan Drury Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Marissa Hummon Jennie Jorganson Jordan Macknick Trieu Mai David Mulcahy David Palchak Ben Sigrin Daniel Steinberg Patrick Sullivan Aaron Townsend Laura Vimmerstedt Andrew Weekley Owen Zinaman Photo of Clayton Barrows. Clayton Barrows Postdoctoral Researcher Areas of expertise Power system modeling Primary research interests Power and energy systems

382

Conceptual design of a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

A site development forecasting system has been designed in response to the need to monitor and forecast the development of specific geothermal resource sites for electrical power generation and direct heat applications. The system is comprised of customized software, a site development status data base, and a set of complex geothermal project development schedules. The system would use site-specific development status information obtained from the Geothermal Progress Monitor and other data derived from economic and market penetration studies to produce reports on the rates of geothermal energy development, federal agency manpower requirements to ensure these developments, and capital expenditures and technical/laborer manpower required to achieve these developments.

Neham, E.A.; Entingh, D.J.

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data  

DOE Data Explorer (OSTI)

Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

Klein, Stephen

384

Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996  

SciTech Connect

This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

NONE

1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Sales forecasting strategies for small businesses: an empirical investigation of statistical and judgemental methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study evolved from the mixed results shown in the reviewed forecasting literature and from the lack of sufficient forecasting research dealing with micro data. The main purpose of this study is to investigate and compare the accuracy of different quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques, and to recommend a forecasting strategy for small businesses. Emphasis is placed on the testing of combining as a tool to improve forecasting accuracy. Of particular interest is whether combining time series and judgemental forecasts provides more accurate results than individual methods. A case study of a small business was used for this purpose to assess the accuracy and applicability of combining forecasts. The evidence indicates that combining qualitative and quantitative methods results in better and improved forecasts.

Imad J. Zbib

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

Bush, Sarah, 1973-

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

A Comparison of Measures-Oriented and Distributions-Oriented Approaches to Forecast Verification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors have carried out verification of 590 1224-h high-temperature forecasts from numerical guidance products and human forecasters for Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, using both a measures-oriented verification scheme and a distributions-...

Harold E. Brooks; Charles A. Doswell III

1996-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

Correspondence among the Correlation, RMSE, and Heidke Forecast Verification Measures; Refinement of the Heidke Score  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The correspondence among the following three forecast verification scores, based on forecasts and their associated observations, is described: 1) the correlation score, 2) the root-mean-square error (RMSE) score, and 3) the Heidke score (based on ...

Anthony G. Barnston

1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

Improving Seasonal Forecast Skill of North American Surface Air Temperature in Fall Using a Postprocessing Method  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A statistical postprocessing approach is applied to seasonal forecasts of surface air temperatures (SAT) over North America in fall, when the original uncalibrated predictions have little skill. The data used are ensemble-mean seasonal forecasts ...

XiaoJing Jia; Hai Lin; Jacques Derome

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We examine possible accuracy gains from forecast averaging in the context of interval forecasts of electricity spot prices. First, we test whether constructing empirical prediction intervals (PI) from combined electricity

Jakub Nowotarski; Rafa? Weron

2014-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

Medium-term forecasting of demand prices on example of electricity prices for industry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, a method of forecasting demand prices for electric energy for the industry has been suggested. An algorithm of the forecast for 20062010 based on the data for 19972005 has been presented.

V. V. Kossov

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

Price Forecasting and Optimal Operation of Wholesale Customers in a Competitive Electricity Market.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning (more)

Zareipour, Hamidreza

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011  

SciTech Connect

This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Combining Multi Wavelet and Multi NN for Power Systems Load Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, two pre-processing methods for load forecast sampling data including multiwavelet transformation and chaotic time series ... introduced. In addition, multi neural network for load forecast including...

Zhigang Liu; Qi Wang; Yajun Zhang

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Production forecasting in shale (ultra-low permeability) gas reservoirs is of great interest due to the advent of multi-stage fracturing and horizontal drilling. The well renowned production forecasting model, Arps? Hyperbolic Decline Model...

Statton, James Cody

2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

397

E-Print Network 3.0 - air pollution forecast Sample Search Results  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

forecast Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: air pollution forecast Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 DISCOVER-AQ Outlook for Wednesay, July...

398

A WRF Ensemble for Improved Wind Speed Forecasts at Turbine Height  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing was used to explore improvements in wind speed forecasts at a typical wind turbine hub height (80 m). An ensemble consisting of WRF model simulations with ...

Adam J. Deppe; William A. Gallus Jr.; Eugene S. Takle

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

American Solar Energy Society Proc. ASES Annual Conference, Raleigh, NC, EVALUATION OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

© American Solar Energy Society ­ Proc. ASES Annual Conference, Raleigh, NC, EVALUATION;© American Solar Energy Society ­ Proc. ASES Annual Conference, Raleigh, NC, irradiance forecasts over OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTS IN THE US Richard Perez ASRC, Albany, NY, Perez

Perez, Richard R.

400

Improving the forecasting function for a Credit Hire operator in the UK  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims to test on the predictability of Credit Hire services for the automobile and insurance industry. A relatively sophisticated time series forecasting procedure, which conducts a competition among exponential smoothing models, is employed to forecast demand for a leading UK Credit Hire operator (CHO). The generated forecasts are compared against the Naive method, resulting that demand for CHO services is indeed extremely hard to forecast, as the underlying variable is the number of road accidents a truly stochastic variable.

Nicolas D. Savio; K. Nikolopoulos; Konstantinos Bozos

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities  

SciTech Connect

The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

402

Automatic Detection of Expanding HI Shells Using Artificial Neural Networks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The identification of expanding HI shells is difficult because of their variable morphological characteristics. The detection of HI bubbles on a global scale therefore never has been attempted. In this paper, an automatic detector for expanding HI shells is presented. The detection is based on the more stable dynamical characteristics of expanding shells and is performed in two stages. The first one is the recognition of the dynamical signature of an expanding bubble in the velocity spectra, based on the classification of an artificial neural network. The pixels associated with these recognized spectra are identified on each velocity channel. The second stage consists in looking for concentrations of those pixels that were firstly pointed out, and to decide if they are potential detections by morphological and 21-cm emission variation considerations. Two test bubbles are correctly detected and a potentially new case of shell that is visually very convincing is discovered. About 0.6% of the surveyed pixels are identified as part of a bubble. These may be false detections, but still constitute regions of space with high probability of finding an expanding shell. The subsequent search field is thus significantly reduced. We intend to conduct in the near future a large scale HI shells detection over the Perseus Arm using our detector.

Anik Daigle; Gilles Joncas; Marc Parizeau; Marc-Antoine Miville-Deschenes

2003-04-17T23:59:59.000Z

403

Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power ­ Overview of the ANEMOS Project. G outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting. Advanced forecasts for the power system management and market integration of wind power. Keywords: Wind power, short

Boyer, Edmond

404

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting that are combined. As a case study, we consider the problem of forecasting monthly tourism numbers for inbound tourism to Egypt. Specifically, we con- sider 33 source countries, as well as the aggregate. The novel

Abu-Mostafa, Yaser S.

405

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

there is significant uncertainty in its future intensity, the current forecast is for a slowly strengthening TC which, 3) forecast output from global models, 4) the current and projected state of the Madden with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all

Gray, William

406

VALIDATION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM OPERATIONAL SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS IN THE US  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, and medium term forecasts (up to seven days ahead) from numerical weather prediction models [1]. Forecasts radiation forecasting. One approach relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models which can be global modeling of the atmosphere. NWP models cannot, at this stage of their development, predict the exact

Perez, Richard R.

407

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

) Seasonal Climate Forecast (1-6 months) #12;Weather Forecast Weather Bulletin PCD SCD1 SCD2 SX6 SatelliteLOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da AND DEVELOP. DIVISION SATELLITE DIVISION ENVIROM. SYSTEM OPERATIONAL DIVISION CPTEC/INPE Msc / PHD &TRAINING

408

Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

model along with other sources of weather data such as satellite pictures and their own forecastingLessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation Somayajulu G Language Generation (NLG) system that produces textual weather forecasts for offshore oilrigs from

Sripada, Yaji

409

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone Vivien Mallet1., and B. Sportisse (2006), Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone, J, the uncertainty in chem- istry transport models is a major limitation of air quality forecasting. The source

Boyer, Edmond

410

SunLine Expands Horizons with Fuel Cell Bus Demo. Hydrogen, Fuel...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Expands Horizons with Fuel Cell Bus Demo. Hydrogen, Fuel Cells & Infrastructure Technologies Program, Fuel Cell Bus Demonstration Projects (Fact Sheet). SunLine Expands Horizons...

411

Energy Secretary Announces $13 Million to Expand Solar Energy Technologies  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Energy Secretary Announces $13 Million to Expand Solar Energy Energy Secretary Announces $13 Million to Expand Solar Energy Technologies Energy Secretary Announces $13 Million to Expand Solar Energy Technologies October 12, 2006 - 9:08am Addthis ST. LOUIS, MO - U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Samuel W. Bodman today announced more than $13 million to fund new research in solar technologies. This funding, part of President Bush's $148 million Solar America Initiative, will support the development of more efficient solar panels, known as photovoltaic devices. "This investment is a major step in our mission to bring clean, renewable solar power to the nation," Secretary Bodman said. "If we are able to harness more of the sun's power and use it to provide energy to homes and businesses, we can increase our energy diversity and strengthen our

412

Better Buildings Challenge is Expanding, Improving Energy Efficiency  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Better Buildings Challenge is Expanding, Improving Energy Better Buildings Challenge is Expanding, Improving Energy Efficiency Throughout America Better Buildings Challenge is Expanding, Improving Energy Efficiency Throughout America December 5, 2013 - 4:36pm Addthis Industry and government officials discuss the Better Buildings Challenge expansion at the White House earlier this week. | Photo courtesy of Department of Housing and Urban Development Industry and government officials discuss the Better Buildings Challenge expansion at the White House earlier this week. | Photo courtesy of Department of Housing and Urban Development Maria Tikoff Vargas Director, Department of Energy Better Buildings Challenge MORE RESOURCES Read the press release about the Better Buildings expansion Learn more about Better Buildings Accelerators

413

Energy Department Expands Research into Methane Hydrates, a Vast, Untapped  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Expands Research into Methane Hydrates, a Vast, Expands Research into Methane Hydrates, a Vast, Untapped Potential Energy Resource of the U.S. Energy Department Expands Research into Methane Hydrates, a Vast, Untapped Potential Energy Resource of the U.S. November 20, 2013 - 12:08pm Addthis NEWS MEDIA CONTACT (202) 586-4940 WASHINGTON - Today, U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz announced nearly $5 million in funding across seven research projects nationwide designed to increase our understanding of methane hydrates - a large, completely untapped natural gas resource-and what it could mean for the environment, as well as American economic competiveness and energy security. "The recent boom in natural gas production - in part due to long-term Energy Department investments beginning in the 70's and 80's - has had

414

Recovery Act Funds Expand Groundwater Treatment at Hanford Site: Contractor  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Funds Expand Groundwater Treatment at Hanford Site: Funds Expand Groundwater Treatment at Hanford Site: Contractor CH2M HILL drills record number of wells Recovery Act Funds Expand Groundwater Treatment at Hanford Site: Contractor CH2M HILL drills record number of wells May 26, 2011 - 12:00pm Addthis Media Contacts Andre Armstrong CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company (509) 376-6773 Andre_L_Armstrong@rl.gov Geoff Tyree, DOE (509) 376-4171 Geoffrey.Tyree@rl.doe.gov RICHLAND, Wash. - Workers at the Hanford Site have surpassed goals for drilling wells to detect and remove contamination from groundwater. The groundwater was contaminated by radioactive waste and chemicals generated during decades of producing plutonium for the Cold War at the Hanford Site in southeast Washington State. The Department of Energy (DOE) had set a goal for its contractor, CH2M HILL

415

Why sequence microbial communities in expanding dead zones?  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

microbial communities in expanding dead zones? microbial communities in expanding dead zones? Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are widespread oceanographic features expanding due to global warming. There is increasing evidence that ocean warming trends will decrease dissolved oxygen concentrations, causing hypoxic boundary layer expansion that impacts the global carbon cycle, marine nutrient cycles and the climate system. To properly diagnose these transitions, this project launches a systems-level investigation of microbial community responses to OMZ expansion, charting the gene expression patterns of indigenous microbial communities found in coastal and open ocean OMZs in the eastern Subarctic Pacific Ocean as part of an ongoing time series program monitoring microbial community responses to changing levels of water column oxygen deficiency.

416

Energy Secretary Announces $13 Million to Expand Solar Energy Technologies  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Energy Secretary Announces $13 Million to Expand Solar Energy Energy Secretary Announces $13 Million to Expand Solar Energy Technologies Energy Secretary Announces $13 Million to Expand Solar Energy Technologies October 12, 2006 - 9:08am Addthis ST. LOUIS, MO - U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Samuel W. Bodman today announced more than $13 million to fund new research in solar technologies. This funding, part of President Bush's $148 million Solar America Initiative, will support the development of more efficient solar panels, known as photovoltaic devices. "This investment is a major step in our mission to bring clean, renewable solar power to the nation," Secretary Bodman said. "If we are able to harness more of the sun's power and use it to provide energy to homes and businesses, we can increase our energy diversity and strengthen our

417

Rocky Flats Site Expands Solar Power for Treating Groundwater | Department  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Rocky Flats Site Expands Solar Power for Treating Groundwater Rocky Flats Site Expands Solar Power for Treating Groundwater Rocky Flats Site Expands Solar Power for Treating Groundwater April 17, 2013 - 1:26pm Addthis Subcontractor personnel install solar panels and other infrastructure on a 40-foot conex box that houses the batteries and control equipment for the 6 kilowatt photovoltaic system that powers the ETPTS groundwater treatment system. Subcontractor personnel install solar panels and other infrastructure on a 40-foot conex box that houses the batteries and control equipment for the 6 kilowatt photovoltaic system that powers the ETPTS groundwater treatment system. DOE was able to minimize impacts to the habitat of a federally protected mouse and provide the potential for relatively easy relocation by mounting the solar panels on the side of the conex box that houses the batteries and other system equipment.

418

Clean Cities Expands and Strengthens Nationwide Partnerships | Department  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Clean Cities Expands and Strengthens Nationwide Partnerships Clean Cities Expands and Strengthens Nationwide Partnerships Clean Cities Expands and Strengthens Nationwide Partnerships November 20, 2012 - 12:14pm Addthis Nearly 100 Clean Cities coalitions work to reduce petroleum use in communities across the country. Led by Clean Cities coordinators, coalitions are composed of businesses, fuel providers, vehicle fleets, state and local government agencies, and community organizations. These stakeholders come together to share information and resources, educate the public, help craft public policy, and collaborate on projects that reduce petroleum use. Click on a region for more information. Shannon Brescher Shea Communications Manager, Clean Cities Program What is Clean Cities? Clean Cities works to reduce U.S. reliance on petroleum in

419

How Would You Expand our National Training & Education Resource? |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Would You Expand our National Training & Education Resource? Would You Expand our National Training & Education Resource? How Would You Expand our National Training & Education Resource? September 26, 2012 - 2:29pm Addthis Screen shot of the solar training in the NTER interactive lessons. | Photo courtesy of the Energy Department. Screen shot of the solar training in the NTER interactive lessons. | Photo courtesy of the Energy Department. Alex Cohen Alex Cohen Senior Digital Information Strategist How can I participate? Find more information at NTER Learning. Email Michelle Fox with your ideas. Public-private partnerships have a long history of helping to drive innovative products and services. In the 1920s, the Kelly Airmail Act helped to spur demand for the emerging American aviation industry. Today, companies like Boeing do business

420

Los Alamos National Laboratory cosponsors 30th Expanding Your Horizons  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Expanding your horizons conference Expanding your horizons conference Los Alamos National Laboratory cosponsors 30th Expanding Your Horizons conference The young women will participate in hands-on activities related to fields, such as astronomy, aerospace, chemistry, and earth science. March 16, 2009 Los Alamos National Laboratory sits on top of a once-remote mesa in northern New Mexico with the Jemez mountains as a backdrop to research and innovation covering multi-disciplines from bioscience, sustainable energy sources, to plasma physics and new materials. Los Alamos National Laboratory sits on top of a once-remote mesa in northern New Mexico with the Jemez mountains as a backdrop to research and innovation covering multi-disciplines from bioscience, sustainable energy sources, to plasma physics and new materials.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Bush Administration to Expand Department of Energy Former Worker Medical  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

to Expand Department of Energy Former Worker to Expand Department of Energy Former Worker Medical Screening Program Bush Administration to Expand Department of Energy Former Worker Medical Screening Program February 9, 2005 - 10:05am Addthis Estimates project that over 25,000 additional workers will receive screening Program Fact Sheet [PDF] U.S. Map of Medical Screening Sites [GIF] WASHINGTON, D.C. - U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman today announced that the Bush administration will add nine additional medical screening centers as part of the department's Former Worker Medical Screening Program at no additional cost to the taxpayer. Under this expansion, the Former Worker Medical Screening Program will offer all former Energy Department employees, contractors and subcontractors free medical examinations to determine if possible exposure to harmful

422

Alabama Justice Center Expands its Solar Capabilities | Department of  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Justice Center Expands its Solar Capabilities Justice Center Expands its Solar Capabilities Alabama Justice Center Expands its Solar Capabilities March 22, 2010 - 4:56pm Addthis The roof-mounted solar array at the T.K. Davis Justice Center in Opelika, Ala. | Photo courtesy of Lee County Commission The roof-mounted solar array at the T.K. Davis Justice Center in Opelika, Ala. | Photo courtesy of Lee County Commission Joshua DeLung What are the key facts? A $162,000 EECBG grant awarded to Lee County through the Recovery Act is helping add solar power to their facilities and save the community money on energy costs. At the T.K. Davis Justice Center in Opelika, Ala., the county is making an effort to reduce costs and help the environment by installing renewable energy projects, including solar panels on the center's roof and on poles

423

Green Button Energy Data Access Expanding Across America | Department of  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Energy Data Access Expanding Across America Energy Data Access Expanding Across America Green Button Energy Data Access Expanding Across America October 17, 2012 - 6:01pm Addthis Utilities demonstrating the latest Green Button features at the Energy Datapalooza on October 1st. | Photo by Sarah Gerrity Utilities demonstrating the latest Green Button features at the Energy Datapalooza on October 1st. | Photo by Sarah Gerrity Ian Kalin Director of the Energy Data Initiative What does this mean for me? Green Button formatted electricity usage data makes it easy for app developers to build software that helps you understand your usage and save money on your monthly bill. The Green Button Initiative aims to provide utility customers with their electricity usage data in a simple and standard format to help them save

424

Clean Cities Expands and Strengthens Nationwide Partnerships | Department  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Cities Expands and Strengthens Nationwide Partnerships Cities Expands and Strengthens Nationwide Partnerships Clean Cities Expands and Strengthens Nationwide Partnerships November 20, 2012 - 12:14pm Addthis Nearly 100 Clean Cities coalitions work to reduce petroleum use in communities across the country. Led by Clean Cities coordinators, coalitions are composed of businesses, fuel providers, vehicle fleets, state and local government agencies, and community organizations. These stakeholders come together to share information and resources, educate the public, help craft public policy, and collaborate on projects that reduce petroleum use. Click on a region for more information. Shannon Brescher Shea Communications Manager, Clean Cities Program What is Clean Cities? Clean Cities works to reduce U.S. reliance on petroleum in

425

Rocky Flats Site Expands Solar Power for Treating Groundwater | Department  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Rocky Flats Site Expands Solar Power for Treating Groundwater Rocky Flats Site Expands Solar Power for Treating Groundwater Rocky Flats Site Expands Solar Power for Treating Groundwater April 17, 2013 - 1:26pm Addthis Subcontractor personnel install solar panels and other infrastructure on a 40-foot conex box that houses the batteries and control equipment for the 6 kilowatt photovoltaic system that powers the ETPTS groundwater treatment system. Subcontractor personnel install solar panels and other infrastructure on a 40-foot conex box that houses the batteries and control equipment for the 6 kilowatt photovoltaic system that powers the ETPTS groundwater treatment system. DOE was able to minimize impacts to the habitat of a federally protected mouse and provide the potential for relatively easy relocation by mounting the solar panels on the side of the conex box that houses the batteries and other system equipment.

426

Expanding Options for Nuclear Power | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Expanding Options for Nuclear Power Expanding Options for Nuclear Power Expanding Options for Nuclear Power April 15, 2013 - 10:12am Addthis The development of clean, affordable nuclear power options is a key element of the Energy Department's Nuclear Energy Research and Development Roadmap. As a part of this strategy, a high priority of the Department has been to help accelerate the timelines for the commercialization and deployment of small modular reactor (SMR) technologies through the SMR Licensing Technical Support program. | Photo by the Energy Department. The development of clean, affordable nuclear power options is a key element of the Energy Department's Nuclear Energy Research and Development Roadmap. As a part of this strategy, a high priority of the Department has been to

427

DOE and Colorado Mesa University Education Agreement Expands LM's Site  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

and Colorado Mesa University Education Agreement Expands LM's and Colorado Mesa University Education Agreement Expands LM's Site Reuse Portfolio DOE and Colorado Mesa University Education Agreement Expands LM's Site Reuse Portfolio October 16, 2012 - 2:49pm Addthis Rich Bush, DOE Site Manager, explains the Grand Junction, Colorado, Disposal Site to Colorado Mesa University students. Rich Bush, DOE Site Manager, explains the Grand Junction, Colorado, Disposal Site to Colorado Mesa University students. DOE Site Manager Rich Bush explains the Enhanced Cover Assessment Project to Colorado Mesa University students while standing next to one of LM’s Systems Operation and Analysis at Remote Sites locations, which collects data remotely and transmits it to LM servers daily. DOE Site Manager Rich Bush explains the Enhanced Cover Assessment Project

428

DOE's AVESTAR Center to Expand Research, Training Opportunities |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

DOE's AVESTAR Center to Expand Research, Training Opportunities DOE's AVESTAR Center to Expand Research, Training Opportunities DOE's AVESTAR Center to Expand Research, Training Opportunities December 10, 2012 - 12:00pm Addthis Washington, DC - A simulator that can provide future engineers with realistic, hands-on experience for operating advanced natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants will soon be available at an innovative U.S. Department of Energy training center. Under a new cooperative research and development agreement signed by the Office of Fossil Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and Invensys Operations Management, the partners will develop, test, and deploy a dynamic simulator and operator training system (OTS) for a generic NGCC power plant equipped for use with post-combustion carbon capture. NETL

429

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts Antonio that the inherent variability in wind power generation and the related difficulty in predicting future generation profiles, raise major challenges to wind power integration into the electricity grid. In this work we study

Giannitrapani, Antonello

430

Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1 P Tino 2 J Tepper 3 R Anderson4 B Jones 5 range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different that there exists a long-run relationship between the growth rate of the money supply and the growth rate of prices

Tino, Peter

431

Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, such as over- supply or scarcity, from historical data using computational methods to construct price density. The agent can use this information to make both tactical decisions such as pricing and strategic decisions historical data and identified from observable data. We outline how to identify regimes and forecast regime

Ketter, Wolfgang

432

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc, 2000 Abstract The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing involved in doing so. Based on our three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators

Parsons, Simon

433

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

Heinemann, Detlev

434

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

Cerpa, Alberto E.

435

Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey on your needs for information on solar energy resources and forecasting. This survey is conducted with the California Solar Energy Collaborative (CSEC) and the California Solar Initiative (CSI) our objective

Islam, M. Saif

436

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE Wensheng Zhang1,* , Hongfu Chen1 and excessive fluctuation of agricultural and livestock products price is not only harmful to residents' living, but also affects CPI (Consumer Price Index) values, and even leads to social crisis, which influences

Boyer, Edmond

437

Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

) into the future. Our approach is to train a set of standard forecasting models to our time series data. Each model conditioning (HVAC) systems. In particular, if occupancy can be accurately pre- dicted, HVAC systems can potentially be controlled to op- erate more efficiently. For example, an HVAC system can pre-heat or pre

Hoff, William A.

438

Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks Matthew J. Daniels is a critical factor for decision-making in hospitals. Bed availability (or alternatively the bed occupancy in emergency departments, and many other important hospital decisions. To better enable a hospital to make

Kuhl, Michael E.

439

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning Navin Sharma, Pranshu Sharma, David Irwin, and Prashant Shenoy Department of Computer Science University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 {nksharma,pranshus,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--A key goal

Shenoy, Prashant

440

Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power in Porto) Power Systems Unit Porto, Portugal Industry Partners Horizon Wind Energy, LLC Midwest Independent

Kemner, Ken

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from ensemble Kalman filters? Tom from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due to the model (e.g., stochas2c physics as error; part of spread growth from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due

Hamill, Tom

442

Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Speed: Ensemble Model Output Statistics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed and phrases: Continuous ranked probability score; Density forecast; Ensem- ble system; Numerical weather prediction; Heteroskedastic censored regression; Tobit model; Wind energy. 1 #12;1 Introduction Accurate

Washington at Seattle, University of

443

Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a priori102 Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting is to reduce the number

Haak, Hein

444

Operational Forecasts of Cloud Cover and Water Vapour  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of the forecast programme, which involved the additional use of 10.7 µm GOES-8 satellite data and surface weather cirrus cloud cover 15 5. A satellite-derived extinction parameter 17 5.1 Background 17 5.2 Previous work 20 5.3 Continued development of a satellite-derived 22 extinction parameter 6. Suggestions

445

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

competing numerical weather prediction centers such as the European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For most sensibleweather metrics, we lag 1 to 1.5 days (i.e., they make a 3.5day of NOAA's current investment in weather satellites. Without a modern data assimilation system

Hamill, Tom

446

Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

samples, then many verification metrics will credit a forecast with extra skill it doesn't deserve islands, zero meteorologists Imagine a planet with a global ocean and two isolated islands. Weather three metrics... (1) Brier Skill Score (2) Relative Operating Characteristic (3) Equitable Threat Score

Hamill, Tom

447

URBAN OZONE CONCENTRATION FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN CORSICA  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Perceptron; Ozone concentration. 1. Introduction Tropospheric ozone is a major air pollution problem, both, Ajaccio, France, e-mail: balu@univ-corse.fr Abstract: Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air

Boyer, Edmond

448

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

Shenoy, Prashant

449

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

Shenoy, Prashant

450

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes Marcel C. Guenther and Jeremy T. The global emergence of city bicycle hire schemes has re- cently received a lot of attention of future bicycle migration trends, as these assist service providers to ensure availability of bicycles

Imperial College, London

452

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study ON EXTREMES · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes (Germany, France) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme Value Theory (EVT) (4) Application of EVT to Verification (5) Frost

Katz, Richard

453

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study on Extremes · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes "Il est impossible que l'improbable n'arrive jamais." #12;3 OUTLINE (1) Motivation (2) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme

Katz, Richard

454

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study ON EXTREMES · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes "Il est impossible que l'improbable n'arrive jamais." #12;3 OUTLINE (1) Motivation (2) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme

Katz, Richard

455

Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Frequencies in Europe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Frequencies in Europe Matthew J. Swann;Abstract Flood and wind damage to property and livelihoods resulting from extreme precipitation events variability of these extreme events can be closely related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation

Feigon, Brooke

456

Cost, Conflict and Climate: U.S. Challenges in the World Oil Market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

forecasts of expanded U.S. oil drilling suggest productionoil market in order to evaluate its e?ect on prices. Drilling

Borenstein, Severin

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

457

On the Sackur-Tetrode equation in an expanding universe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this work we investigate the thermodynamic properties satisfied by an expanding universe filled with a monoatomic ideal gas. We show that the equations for the energy density, entropy density and chemical potential remain the same of an ideal gas confined to a constant volume V . In particular the Sackur-Tetrode equation for the entropy of the ideal gas is also valid in the case of an expanding universe, provided that the constant value that represents the current entropy of the universe is appropriately chosen.

S. H. Pereira

2011-10-07T23:59:59.000Z

458

Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Turbo-Expander and Heat Exchangers  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

This fact sheet describes a supercritical carbon dioxide turbo-expander and heat exchangers project awarded under the DOE's 2012 SunShot Concentrating Solar Power R&D award program. The team, led by the Southwest Research Institute, is working to develop a megawatt-scale s-CO2 hot-gas turbo-expander optimized for the highly transient solar power plant profile. The team is also working to optimize novel printed circuit heat exchangers for s-CO2 applications to drastically reduce their manufacturing costs.

459

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

SciTech Connect

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

460

Forecasting intraday time series with multiple seasonal cycles using parsimonious seasonal exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper concerns the forecasting of seasonal intraday time series that exhibit repeating intraweek and intraday cycles. A recently proposed exponential smoothing method involves smoothing a different intraday cycle for each distinct type of day of the week. Similar days are allocated identical intraday cycles. A limitation is that the method allows only whole days to be treated as identical. We introduce a new exponential smoothing formulation that allows parts of different days of the week to be treated as identical. The result is a method that involves the smoothing and initialisation of fewer terms. We evaluate forecasting up to a day ahead using two empirical studies. For electricity load data, the new method compares well with a range of alternatives. The second study involves a series of arrivals at a call centre that is open for a shorter duration at the weekends than on weekdays. Among the variety of methods considered, the new method is the only one that can model in a satisfactory way in this situation, where the number of periods on each day of the week is not the same.

James W. Taylor; Ralph D. Snyder

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Detiding DART buoy data for real-time extraction of source coefficients for operational tsunami forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers use real-time bottom pressure (BP) data transmitted from a network of buoys deployed in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans to tune source coefficients of tsunami forecast models. For accurate coefficients and therefore forecasts, tides at the buoys must be accounted for. In this study, five methods for coefficient estimation are compared, each of which accounts for tides differently. The first three subtract off a tidal prediction based on (1) a localized harmonic analysis involving 29 days of data immediately preceding the tsunami event, (2) 68 pre-existing harmonic constituents specific to each buoy, and (3) an empirical orthogonal function fit to the previous 25 hrs of data. Method (4) is a Kalman smoother that uses method (1) as its input. These four methods estimate source coefficients after detiding. Method (5) estimates the coefficients simultaneously with a two-component harmonic model that accounts for the tides. The five methods are evaluated using archived data from eleven...

Percival, Donald B; Eble, Marie C; Gica, Edison; Huang, Paul Y; Mofjeld, Harold O; Spillane, Michael C; Titov, Vasily V; Tolkova, Elena I

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

SciTech Connect

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology -  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology 1 The Anemos Wind Power a professional, flexible platform for operating wind power prediction models, laying the main focus on state models from all over Europe are able to work on this platform. Keywords: wind energy, wind power

Boyer, Edmond

464

Nonlinear wave evolution in the expanding solar wind  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We report here on a numerical model allowing direct numerical simulations of magnetohydrodynamic fluctuations advected by the expanding solar wind. We show that the expansion of the plasma delays and possibly freezes the turbulent evolution, but that it also triggers the nonlinear evolution of otherwise stable (Alfvn) waves, which can thus release their energy in the wind.

Roland Grappin; Marco Velli; Andr Mangeney

1993-04-05T23:59:59.000Z

465

Multi-agent Cooperative Cleaning of Expanding Domains  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Several recent works considered multi-a(ge)nt robotics in static environments. In this work we examine ways of operating in dynamic environments, where changes take place independently of the agents?? activity. The work focuses on a dynamic ... Keywords: Collaborative cleaning, collaborative search, decentralized robots, expanding domains, grid search

Yaniv Altshuler; Vladimir Yanovski; Israel A Wagner; Alfred M Bruckstein

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

466

Expanding Home Services with Advanced Gateways Jon Whiteaker  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and telephony to video-on-demand (VoD), on- line gaming, and home automation. At home, Internet ac- cessExpanding Home Services with Advanced Gateways Jon Whiteaker jbw@berkeley.edu Fabian Schneider services at home. ISPs propose fulfilling this demand with a cloud delivery model, which would simplify

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

467

Diuse interface surface tension models in an expanding ow  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Diuse interface surface tension models in an expanding ow Wangyi Liu, Andrea L. Bertozzi , and Theodore Kolokolnikov November 22, 2010 Abstract We consider a diusive interface surface tension model principle. 1 Background There is a need to develop simple computational models for surface tension

Soatto, Stefano

468

Meta-Design: Expanding Boundaries and Redistributing Control in Design  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Meta-Design: Expanding Boundaries and Redistributing Control in Design Gerhard Fischer Center for Lifelong Learning and Design University of Colorado, Boulder http://l3d.cs.colorado.edu/~gerhard/ Abstract. Meta-design is an emerging conceptual framework aimed at defining and creating socio

Fischer, Gerhard

469

Farmer's Market, Demonstration Gardens, and Research Projects Expand Outreach  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Farmer's Market, Demonstration Gardens, and Research Projects Expand Outreach of Extension Master. A workshop format was used at the Annual Conference of the American Society for Horticultural Science on 31 volunteer outreach, leading to increased extension effectiveness. One program leader described how EMGs

470

APPROXIMATE HAMILTON DECOMPOSITIONS OF ROBUSTLY EXPANDING REGULAR DIGRAPHS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

APPROXIMATE HAMILTON DECOMPOSITIONS OF ROBUSTLY EXPANDING REGULAR DIGRAPHS DERYK OSTHUS and is a robust outexpander has an approximate decomposition into edge-disjoint Hamilton cycles, i.e. G contains a set of r -o(r) edge-disjoint Hamilton cycles. Here G is a robust outexpander if for every set S which

Osthus, Deryk

471

Hamilton cycles in highly connected and expanding Dan Hefetz  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Hamilton cycles in highly connected and expanding graphs Dan Hefetz Michael Krivelevich Tibor of a Hamilton cycle, which is applicable to a wide variety of graphs, including relatively sparse graphs A Hamilton cycle in a graph G is a cycle passing through all vertices of G. A graph is called Hamiltonian

Krivelevich, Michael

472

Variational Assimilation for Xenon Dynamical Forecasts in Neutronic using Advanced Background Error Covariance Matrix  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Data assimilation method consists in combining all available pieces of information about a system to obtain optimal estimates of initial states. The different sources of information are weighted according to their accuracy by the means of error covariance matrices. Our purpose here is to evaluate the efficiency of variational data assimilation for the xenon induced oscillations forecasts in nuclear cores. In this paper we focus on the comparison between 3DVAR schemes with optimised background error covariance matrix B and a 4DVAR scheme. Tests were made in twin experiments using a simulation code which implements a mono-dimensional coupled model of xenon dynamics, thermal, and thermal-hydraulic processes. We enlighten the very good efficiency of the 4DVAR scheme as well as good results with the 3DVAR one using a careful multivariate modelling of B.

Ponot, Anglique; Bouriquet, Bertrand; Erhard, Patrick; Gratton, Serge; Thual, Olivier

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

Variational assimilation for xenon dynamical forecasts in neutronic using advanced background error covariance matrix modelling  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Data assimilation method consists in combining all available pieces of information about a system to obtain optimal estimates of initial states. The different sources of information are weighted according to their accuracy by the means of error covariance matrices. Our purpose here is to evaluate the efficiency of variational data assimilation for the xenon induced oscillations forecasts in nuclear cores. In this paper we focus on the comparison between 3DVAR schemes with optimised background error covariance matrix B and a 4DVAR scheme. Tests were made in twin experiments using a simulation code which implements a mono-dimensional coupled model of xenon dynamics, thermal, and thermalhydraulic processes. We enlighten the very good efficiency of the 4DVAR scheme as well as good results with the 3DVAR one using a careful multivariate modelling of B.

Anglique Ponot; Jean-Philippe Argaud; Bertrand Bouriquet; Patrick Erhard; Serge Gratton; Olivier Thual

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

A Non Parametric Model for the Forecasting of the Venezuelan Oil Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A neural net model for forecasting the prices of Venezuelan crude oil is proposed. The inputs of the neural net are selected by reference to a dynamic system model of oil prices by Mashayekhi (1995, 2001) and its performance is evaluated using two criteria: the Excess Profitability test by Anatoliev and Gerko (2005) and the characteristics of the equity curve generated by a trading strategy based on the neural net predictions. ----- Se introduce aqui un modelo no parametrico para pronosticar los precios del petroleo Venezolano cuyos insumos son seleccionados en base a un sistema dinamico que explica los precios en terminos de dichos insumos. Se describe el proceso de recoleccion y pre-procesamiento de datos y la corrida de la red y se evaluan sus pronosticos a traves de un test estadistico de predictibilidad y de las caracteristicas del Equity Curve inducido por la estrategia de compraventa bursatil generada por dichos pronosticos.

Costanzo, Sabatino; Dehne, Wafaa; Prato, Hender

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

475

Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core Components of Arctic Clouds to Clear Their Influence on Climate For original submission and image(s), see ARM Research Highlights http://www.arm.gov/science/highlights/ Research Highlight Predicting how atmospheric aerosols influence cloud formation and the resulting feedback to climate is a challenge that limits the accuracy of atmospheric models. This is especially true in the Arctic, where mixed-phase (both ice- and liquid-based) clouds are frequently observed, but the processes that determine their composition are poorly understood. To obtain a closer look at what makes up Arctic clouds, scientists characterized cloud droplets and ice crystals collected at the North Slope of Alaska as part of the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) field study

476

Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper investigates the out-predictability of fundamentals and forecast combinations. By adopting a panel-based specification, the paper obtains several interesting results. First, the Taylor-rule-based fundamental is the best among the four different fundamentals under consideration in out-of-sample contests. It provides strong evidence to out-predict the random walk over the PBW period. Second, relative to a single-equation prediction, panel predictions are generally able to enhance the statistical significance of beating the random walk. Third, combining forecasts from different fundamentals that have relatively strong out-predictability at a specific horizon does enhance both the statistical and economic significances of beating the random walk for the PBW period at short horizons.

Jyh-Lin Wu; Yi-Chiuan Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements.

478

Continuous Model Updating and Forecasting for a Naturally Fractured Reservoir  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CONTINUOUS MODEL UPDATING AND FORECASTING FOR A NATURALLY FRACTURED RESERVOIR A Thesis by HISHAM HASSAN S. ALMOHAMMADI Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements... guidance and support throughout my time here in Texas A&M University. I also would like to thank my committee members, Dr. Eduardo Gildin and Dr. Michael Sherman, for providing valued insight and help during the course of this research. I am indebted...

Almohammadi, Hisham

2013-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

479

NOAA National Weather Service I'm a weather forecaster.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

.S.D EPARTMENT OF COM M ERCE How Do You Make a Weather Satellite? How Do You Make a Weather Satellite? #12;Well you put a truck in orbit? So it can carry all the things needed to make a working weather satelliteNOAA National Weather Service I'm a weather forecaster. I need to see clouds and storms from way up

Waliser, Duane E.

480

Multi-scale modeling and evaluation of urban surface energy balance in the Phoenix metropolitan area  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Physical mechanisms of incongruency between observations and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model predictions are examined. Limitations of evaluation are constrained by: i) parameterizations of model physics, ii) parameterizations of input ...

S.R. Shaffer; W.T.L. Chow; M. Georgescu; P. Hyde; G.D. Jenerette; A. Mahalov; M. Moustaoui; B.L. Ruddell

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast evaluation expands" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Performance Evaluation for Parallel Systems: A Survey Lei Hu and Ian Gorton  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

are other issues related to performance evaluation. These issues include how to select metrics and proper must be solved within a limited amount of time. Weather forecasting is such a time-critical example

New South Wales, University of

482

Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 Only GII produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2006. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal, are compared here with the AEO2006 projections. Economic Growth In the AEO2006 reference case, the projected growth in real GDP, based on 2000 chain-weighted dollars, is 3.0 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 (Table 19). For the period from 2004 to 2025, real GDP growth in the AEO2006 reference case is similar to the average annual growth projected in AEO2005. The AEO2006 projections of economic growth are based on the August short-term forecast of GII, extended by EIA through 2030 and modified to reflect EIA’s view on energy prices, demand, and production.

483

Obama Administration Announces up to $32 Million Initiative to Expand  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

up to $32 Million Initiative to up to $32 Million Initiative to Expand Hydropower Obama Administration Announces up to $32 Million Initiative to Expand Hydropower June 30, 2009 - 12:00am Addthis Washington, DC - U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Steven Chu today announced up to $32 million in Recovery Act funding to modernize the existing hydropower infrastructure in the U.S., increase efficiency and reduce environmental impact. Today's announcement is designed to support the deployment of turbines and control technologies to increase power generation and environmental stewardship at existing non-Federal hydroelectric facilities. "There's no one solution to the energy crisis, but hydropower is clearly part of the solution and represents a major opportunity to create more clean energy jobs," said Secretary Chu. "Investing in our existing

484

NETL: News Release - Abraham Announces Plans to Expand DOE's Carbon  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

21, 2002 21, 2002 Abraham Announces Plans to Expand DOE's Carbon Sequestration Program Regional Partnerships, Ohio River Valley Project To Study Ways to Capture, Store Carbon Gases WASHINGTON, DC - Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham, speaking today to the National Coal Council, announced that the Department of Energy will move into a new, expanded phase of its program to develop "carbon sequestration," a promising area of research in which carbon emissions are captured and permanently stored rather than being released to the atmosphere. MORE INFO Full Text of Secretary Abraham's remarks to the Coal Council READ Secretary Abraham said that the federal government intends to create a nationwide network of four to ten "regional sequestration partnerships." He

485

NETL: News Release - Energy Department Looking to Expand Approaches for  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy Department Looking to Expand Approaches for Storing Natural Gas Energy Department Looking to Expand Approaches for Storing Natural Gas Four New Projects to Examine Hydrates, Salt Caverns, Innovative Rock Storage Methods MORGANTOWN, WV - The amount of natural gas needed to fuel new electric power plants projected to be built in the next 20 years is likely to outstrip existing pipeline capacity - making natural gas storage an increasingly important element of the Nation's energy infrastructure. To prepare for the day when natural gas may need to be stored in a variety of different settings - for example, as hydrates in aboveground tanks, or in chilled form in refrigerated rock caverns, or in salt formations miles away from the Nation's coastline - the U.S. Department of Energy has selected four projects to study these innovative gas storage methods.

486

NREL: Technology Transfer - Materials Exposure Testing Market Expands with  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Materials Exposure Testing Market Expands with Ultra-Accelerated Weathering Materials Exposure Testing Market Expands with Ultra-Accelerated Weathering System In this video, NREL researchers Gary Jorgenson and Carl Bingham discuss the NREL-developed ultra accelerated weathering system and its ability to revolutionize the weathering industry. Get the Adobe Flash Player to see this video. Credit: Fireside Production Learn more about the Ultra Accelerated Weathering System. Printable Version Technology Transfer Home About Technology Transfer Technology Partnership Agreements Licensing Agreements Nondisclosure Agreements Research Facilities Commercialization Programs Success Stories News Contacts Did you find what you needed? Yes 1 No 0 Thank you for your feedback. Would you like to take a moment to tell us how we can improve this page? Submit

487

Photon Sciences Directorate | 2010 Annual Report | EHS Group Expands  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Photon Sciences EHS Group Expands, Photon Sciences EHS Group Expands, Evolves in 2010 Steve Hoey "We're proud of the excellent safety record we earned in 2010. It would not have been possible without the hard work, dedication, and experience of the EHS staff and the continuing efforts of our contractors to work more safely." - Steve Hoey Manager, Environment, Safety and Health Fiscal year 2010 was busy for Environment, Safety, and Health (ESH) staff in the Photon Sciences Directorate, due in no small part to the year-long strategic planning leading up to the reorganization of the directorate at year's end and the continuing rapid growth of NSLS-II. Photon Sciences ESH already has an excellent safety record under its belt. In 2010, as was the case with the Laboratory as a whole, a strong emphasis

488

NETL: News Release - Energy Department Expands Air Monitoring Efforts to  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

September 11, 2000 September 11, 2000 Energy Department Expands Air Monitoring Efforts to Deep South The Energy Department is expanding its efforts to collect data on microscopic airborne particles to the deep South. The department will award Southern Research Institute (SRI), Birmingham, AL, a $750,000 contract to augment an air monitoring station in Alabama with new capabilities to study fine particulate matter called PM2.5. The term stands for particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 micrometers, or about 1/30th the width of a human hair. The effort is intended to assist the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), state agencies and the energy industry in gauging the level and sources of the tiny particles which are now regulated under new federal air quality standards.

489

Obama Administration Announces up to $32 Million Initiative to Expand  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

up to $32 Million Initiative to up to $32 Million Initiative to Expand Hydropower Obama Administration Announces up to $32 Million Initiative to Expand Hydropower June 30, 2009 - 12:00am Addthis Washington, DC - U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Steven Chu today announced up to $32 million in Recovery Act funding to modernize the existing hydropower infrastructure in the U.S., increase efficiency and reduce environmental impact. Today's announcement is designed to support the deployment of turbines and control technologies to increase power generation and environmental stewardship at existing non-Federal hydroelectric facilities. "There's no one solution to the energy crisis, but hydropower is clearly part of the solution and represents a major opportunity to create more clean energy jobs," said Secretary Chu. "Investing in our existing

490

Expanded beam non-imaging fiber optic connector  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

There is disclosed an expanded beam fiber to fiber connector, based on non-imaging optic principles for coupling light beams from one optical fiber to another. The system consists of two identical connector parts, referred to herein as a collimating part and a concentrating part, each having a preferred partially curved reflective boundary surface for minimizing power loss and surrounding either a hollow space or a space filled with a uniform transparent medium. In one embodiment the boundary is metallic while in a second embodiment the boundary is in the form of an interface allowing total internal reflection. In both the hollow and filled case a lens may be located at the expanded end of both the collimator part and the concentrator part forming the connector. The connector is preferably located in a housing in order to protect and preserve the mechanical stability of the coupler. 13 figs.

Jannson, T.; Jannson, J.; Yeung, P.

1990-02-06T23:59:59.000Z

491

Global Nuclear Energy Partnership Fact Sheet - Expand Domestic Use of  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

You are here You are here Home » Global Nuclear Energy Partnership Fact Sheet - Expand Domestic Use of Nuclear Power Global Nuclear Energy Partnership Fact Sheet - Expand Domestic Use of Nuclear Power GNEP will build on the recent advances made by the President and Congress to stimulate new nuclear plant construction in the U.S. This will be accomplished by demonstrating the success of the streamlined regulations for siting, constructing and operating new nuclear plants through the Nuclear Power 2010 program, and by implementing incentives enacted through the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT 2005). At 20 percent of the total electricity supply in the nation, nuclear power is the second largest source of domestic electricity, while seventy percent comes from fossil burning fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil). Increasing the amount of

492

Development of Self-Expanding Idealflo (tm) Sandcontrol Technology  

SciTech Connect

Development of Self-Expanding Idealflo{trademark} Sandscreen Technology was a successfully executed design-by-analysis through field demonstration project. This final report is presented as a two-part progression of concept development and manufacturing activities. The first part, conceptual development activities, discusses novel specifications creation and non-linear analytical design generation. The second part, manufacturing, contains achievement related information for detailed-design, fabrication, mechanical testing, and field demonstration activities.

Jeff A. Spray

2007-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

493

Anomalous viscosity of an expanding quark-gluon plasma  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We argue that an expanding quark-gluon plasma has an anomalous viscosity, which arises from interactions with dynamically generated colour fields. The anomalous viscosity dominates over the collisional viscosity for large velocity gradients or weak coupling. This effect may provide an explanation for the apparent near perfect liquidity of the matter produced in nuclear collisions at RHIC without the assumption that it is a strongly coupled state.

M. Asakawa; S. A. Bass; B. Mller

2007-02-02T23:59:59.000Z

494

Expanded Use of Bicyclic Guanidinate Ligands in Dimetal Paddlewheel Compounds  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

EXPANDED USE OF BICYCLIC GUANIDINATE LIGANDS IN DIMETAL PADDLEWHEEL COMPOUNDS A Dissertation by MARK DAVID YOUNG Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements... of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Approved by: Co-Chairs of Committee, Carlos A. Murillo Marcetta Y. Darensbourg Committee Members, Paul A. Lindahl George Kattawar Head...

Young, Mark D.

2010-01-16T23:59:59.000Z

495

Expanded polyglutamine domain possesses nuclear export activity which modulates subcellular  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

hall- marks of polyQ diseases (1). We found that the enhancing effect of Xpo1 knockdown on expanded of incubation, EGFP-polyQ transgene expression was induced by 1 mM CuSO4 and cells were cultured for another 96 h. Cells were fixed, stained (5 mM Hoechst) and observed on a TC SP5 confocal micro- scope (Leica

Higgins, Darren

496

Focusing of geodesic congruences in an accelerated expanding Universe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We study the accelerated expansion of the Universe through its consequences on a congruence of geodesics. We make use of the Raychaudhuri equation which describes the evolution of the expansion rate for a congruence of timelike or null geodesics. In particular, we focus on the space-time geometry contribution to this equation. By straightforward calculation from the metric of a Robertson-Walker cosmological model, it follows that in an accelerated expanding Universe the space-time contribution to the Raychaudhuri equation is positive for the fundamental congruence, favoring a non-focusing of the congruence of geodesics. However, the accelerated expansion of the present Universe does not imply a tendency of the fundamental congruence to diverge. It is shown that this is in fact the case for certain congruences of timelike geodesics without vorticity. Therefore, the focusing of geodesics remains feasible in an accelerated expanding Universe. Furthermore, a negative contribution to the Raychaudhuri equation from space-time geometry which is usually interpreted as the manifestation of the attractive character of gravity is restored in an accelerated expanding Robertson-Walker space-time at high speeds.

F. D. Albareti; J. A. R. Cembranos; A. de la Cruz-Dombriz

2013-01-08T23:59:59.000Z

497

Focusing of geodesic congruences in an accelerated expanding Universe  

SciTech Connect

We study the accelerated expansion of the Universe through its consequences on a congruence of geodesics. We make use of the Raychaudhuri equation which describes the evolution of the expansion rate for a congruence of timelike or null geodesics. In particular, we focus on the space-time geometry contribution to this equation. By straightforward calculation from the metric of a Robertson-Walker cosmological model, it follows that in an accelerated expanding Universe the space-time contribution to the Raychaudhuri equation is positive for the fundamental congruence, favoring a non-focusing of the congruence of geodesics. However, the accelerated expansion of the present Universe does not imply a tendency of the fundamental congruence to diverge. It is shown that this is in fact the case for certain congruences of timelike geodesics without vorticity. Therefore, the focusing of geodesics remains feasible in an accelerated expanding Universe. Furthermore, a negative contribution to the Raychaudhuri equation from space-time geometry which is usually interpreted as the manifestation of the attractive character of gravity is restored in an accelerated expanding Robertson-Walker space-time at high speeds.

Albareti, F.D.; Cembranos, J.A.R. [Departamento de Fsica Terica I, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, E-28040 Madrid (Spain); Cruz-Dombriz, A. de la, E-mail: fdalbareti@estumail.ucm.es, E-mail: cembra@fis.ucm.es, E-mail: alvaro.delacruz-dombriz@uct.ac.za [Astrophysics, Cosmology and Gravity Centre (ACGC), University of Cape Town, 7701 Rondebosch, Cape Town (South Africa)

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

498

Using Google Flu Trends data in forecasting influenza-likeillness related ED visits in Omaha, Nebraska  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

AbstractIntroduction Emergency department (ED) visits increase during the influenza seasons. It is essential to identify statistically significant correlates in order to develop an accurate forecasting model for ED visits. Forecasting influenza-likeillness (ILI)-related ED visits can significantly help in developing robust resource management strategies at the EDs. Methods We first performed correlation analyses to understand temporal correlations between several predictors of ILI-related ED visits. We used the data available for Douglas County, the biggest county in Nebraska, for Omaha, the biggest city in the state, and for a major hospital in Omaha. The data set included total and positive influenza test results from the hospital (ie, Antigen rapid (Ag) and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection (RSV) tests); an Internet-based influenza surveillance system data, that is, Google Flu Trends, for both Nebraska and Omaha; total ED visits in Douglas County attributable to ILI; and ILI surveillance network data for Douglas County and Nebraska as the predictors and data for the hospital's ILI-related ED visits as the dependent variable. We used Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Holt Winters methods with3 linear regression models to forecast ILI-related ED visits at the hospital and evaluated model performances by comparing the root means square errors (RMSEs). Results Because of strong positive correlations with ILI-related ED visits between 2008 and 2012, we validated the use of Google Flu Trends data as a predictor in an ED influenza surveillance tool. Of the 5 forecasting models we have tested, linear regression models performed significantly better when Google Flu Trends data were included as a predictor. Regression models including Google Flu Trends data as a predictor variable have lower RMSE, and the lowest is achieved when all other variables are also included in the model in our forecasting experiments for the first 5 weeks of 2013 (with RMSE = 57.61). Conclusions Google Flu Trends data statistically improve the performance of predicting ILI-related ED visits in Douglas County, and this result can be generalized to other communities. Timely and accurate estimates of ED volume during the influenza season, as well as during pandemic outbreaks, can help hospitals plan their ED resources accordingly and lower their costs by optimizing supplies and staffing and can improve service quality by decreasing ED wait times and overcrowding.

Ozgur M. Araz; Dan Bentley; Robert L. Muelleman

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. Minh Le Minh Le Program Manager, Solar Program What Do These Projects Do? The Energy Department is investing $8 million in two cutting-edge projects to increase the accuracy of solar forecasting at sub-hourly,

500

Mid-term electricity market clearing price forecasting: A hybrid LSSVM and ARMAX approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A hybrid mid-term electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting model combining both least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and auto-regressive moving average with external input (ARMAX) modules is presented in this paper. Mid-term electricity MCP forecasting has become essential for resources reallocation, maintenance scheduling, bilateral contracting, budgeting and planning purposes. Currently, there are many techniques available for short-term electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting, but very little has been done in the area of mid-term electricity MCP forecasting. PJM interconnection data have been utilized to illustrate the proposed model with numerical examples. The proposed hybrid model showed improved forecasting accuracy compared to a forecasting model using a single LSSVM.

Xing Yan; Nurul A. Chowdhury

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z