National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for forecast evaluation expands

  1. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  2. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  3. Helical Screw Expander Evaluation Project. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McKay, R.

    1982-03-01

    A functional 1-MW geothermal electric power plant that featured a helical screw expander was produced and then tested in Utah in 1978 to 1979 with a demonstrated average performance of approximately 45% machine efficiency over a wide range of test conditions in noncondensing operation on two-phase geothermal fluids. The Project also produced a computer-equipped data system, an instrumentation and control van, and a 1000-kW variable load bank, all integrated into a test array designed for operation at a variety of remote test sites. Additional testing was performed in Mexico in 1980 under a cooperative test program using the same test array, and machine efficiency was measured at 62% maximum with the rotors partially coated with scale, compared with approximately 54% maximum in Utah with uncoated rotors, confirming the importance of scale deposits within the machine on performance. Data are presented for the Utah testing and for the noncondensing phases of the testing in Mexico. Test time logged was 437 hours during the Utah tests and 1101 hours during the Mexico tests.

  4. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  5. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  6. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  7. Method of evaluating, expanding, and collapsing connectivity regions within dynamic systems

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bailey, David A.

    2004-11-16

    An automated process defines and maintains connectivity regions within a dynamic network. The automated process requires an initial input of a network component around which a connectivity region will be defined. The process automatically and autonomously generates a region around the initial input, stores the region's definition, and monitors the network for a change. Upon detecting a change in the network, the effect is evaluated, and if necessary the regions are adjusted and redefined to accommodate the change. Only those regions of the network affected by the change will be updated. This process eliminates the need for an operator to manually evaluate connectivity regions within a network. Since the automated process maintains the network, the reliance on an operator is minimized; thus, reducing the potential for operator error. This combination of region maintenance and reduced operator reliance, results in a reduction of overall error.

  8. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m

  9. Development of fine-resolution analyses and expanded large-scale forcing properties. Part I: Methodology and evaluation

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Li, Zhijin; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Feng, Sha; Liu, Yangang; Lin, Wuyin; Zhang, Minghua; Toto, Tami; Endo, Satoshi

    2015-01-20

    We produce fine-resolution, three-dimensional fields of meteorological and other variables for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site. The Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation system is implemented in a multiscale data assimilation (MS-DA) framework that is used within the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a cloud-resolving resolution of 2 km. The MS-DA algorithm uses existing reanalysis products and constrains fine-scale atmospheric properties by assimilating high-resolution observations. A set of experiments show that the data assimilation analysis realistically reproduces the intensity, structure, and time evolution of clouds and precipitation associated with a mesoscale convective system.more » Evaluations also show that the large-scale forcing derived from the fine-resolution analysis has an overall accuracy comparable to the existing ARM operational product. For enhanced applications, the fine-resolution fields are used to characterize the contribution of subgrid variability to the large-scale forcing and to derive hydrometeor forcing, which are presented in companion papers.« less

  10. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  11. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  12. Expanding Professional Horizons

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    * Expanding Professional Horizons 2 SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES 3 LDRD * Expanding Professional Horizons 3 LDRD * Expanding Professional Horizons 4 SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES 5 LDRD * Expanding Professional Horizons Contents Overview 6 Early-Career 8 Mid-Career 22 Late-Career 36 Expanding Professional Horizons For further information, contact: Henry R. Westrich LDRD Program Manager hrwestr@sandia.gov 505-844-9092 4 5 LDRD * Expanding Professional Horizons SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES 6

  13. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 -0.9% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $424 3.9% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,992 2,082 4.5% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.37 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $371 $382 3.0% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,371 2,497 5.3% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  14. Symbiosis Biofeedstock Conference: Expanding Commercialization...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Biofeedstock Conference: Expanding Commercialization of Mutualistic Microbes to Increase Feedstock Production Symbiosis Biofeedstock Conference: Expanding Commercialization of ...

  15. Functionalized expanded porphyrins

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sessler, Jonathan L; Pantos, Patricia J

    2013-11-12

    Disclosed are functionalized expanded porphyrins that can be used as spectrometric sensors for high-valent actinide cations. The disclosed functionalized expanded porphyrins have the advantage over unfunctionalized systems in that they can be immobilized via covalent attachment to a solid support comprising an inorganic or organic polymer or other common substrates. Substrates comprising the disclosed functionalized expanded porphyrins are also disclosed. Further, disclosed are methods of making the disclosed compounds (immobilized and free), methods of using them as sensors to detect high valent actinides, devices that comprise the disclosed compounds, and kits.

  16. Stent with expandable foam

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wilson, Thomas S; Maitland, Duncan J; Small, IV, Ward; Buckley, Patrick R; Benett, William J; Hartman, Jonathan; Saloner, David A

    2013-05-28

    A stent for treating a physical anomaly. The stent includes a skeletal support structure for expanding in the physical anomaly and a shape memory material coupled to the skeletal support structure.

  17. Stent with expandable foam

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wilson, Thomas S.; Maitland, Duncan J.; Small, IV, Ward; Buckley, Patrick R.; Benett, William J.; Hartman, Jonathan; Saloner, David A.

    2015-07-14

    A stent for treating a physical anomaly. The stent includes a skeletal support structure for expanding in the physical anomaly and a shape memory material coupled to the skeletal support structure.

  18. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  19. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  20. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  1. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  2. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  3. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  4. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  5. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  6. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the integration cost of high levels of solar energy into the electricity grid. This will help SunShot to assess current technology and practices in this field and identify the gaps and needs for further research.

  7. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable.

  8. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  9. Expandable LED array interconnect

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Yuan, Thomas Cheng-Hsin; Keller, Bernd

    2011-03-01

    A light emitting device that can function as an array element in an expandable array of such devices. The light emitting device comprises a substrate that has a top surface and a plurality of edges. Input and output terminals are mounted to the top surface of the substrate. Both terminals comprise a plurality of contact pads disposed proximate to the edges of the substrate, allowing for easy access to both terminals from multiple edges of the substrate. A lighting element is mounted to the top surface of the substrate. The lighting element is connected between the input and output terminals. The contact pads provide multiple access points to the terminals which allow for greater flexibility in design when the devices are used as array elements in an expandable array.

  10. Evaluation of the grand-canonical partition function using expanded Wang-Landau simulations. III. Impact of combining rules on mixtures properties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Desgranges, Caroline; Delhommelle, Jerome

    2014-03-14

    Combining rules, such as the Lorentz-Berthelot rules, are routinely used to calculate the thermodynamic properties of mixtures using molecular simulations. Here we extend the expanded Wang-Landau simulation approach to determine the impact of the combining rules on the value of the partition function of binary systems, and, in turn, on the phase coexistence and thermodynamics of these mixtures. We study various types of mixtures, ranging from systems of rare gases to biologically and technologically relevant mixtures, such as water-urea and water-carbon dioxide. Comparing the simulation results to the experimental data on mixtures of rare gases allows us to rank the performance of combining rules. We find that the widely used Lorentz-Berthelot rules exhibit the largest deviations from the experimental data, both for the bulk and at coexistence, while the Kong and Waldman-Hagler provide much better alternatives. In particular, in the case of aqueous solutions of urea, we show that the use of the Lorentz-Berthelot rules has a strong impact on the Gibbs free energy of the solute, overshooting the value predicted by the Waldman-Hagler rules by 7%. This result emphasizes the importance of the combining rule for the determination of hydration free energies using molecular simulations.

  11. Dark Energy Cam: Fermilab Expands Understanding of Expanding Universe |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Dark Energy Cam: Fermilab Expands Understanding of Expanding Universe Dark Energy Cam: Fermilab Expands Understanding of Expanding Universe March 12, 2012 - 12:06pm Addthis Researchers at Fermi National Lab team stand beside the 570-megapixels, five-ton Dark Energy camera, which will be capable of measuring the expansion of the universe - and developing better models about how dark energy works. | Photo by Reidar Hahn, Fermi National Lab Researchers at Fermi National Lab

  12. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  13. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  14. Mechanically expandable annular seal

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gilmore, Richard F.

    1983-01-01

    A mechanically expandable annular reusable seal assembly to form an annular hermetic barrier between two stationary, parallel, and planar containment surfaces. A rotatable ring, attached to the first surface, has ring wedges resembling the saw-tooth array of a hole saw. Matching seal wedges are slidably attached to the ring wedges and have their motion restricted to be perpendicular to the second surface. Each seal wedge has a face parallel to the second surface. An annular elastomer seal has a central annular region attached to the seal wedges' parallel faces and has its inner and outer circumferences attached to the first surface. A rotation of the ring extends the elastomer seal's central region perpendicularly towards the second surface to create the fluidtight barrier. A counterrotation removes the barrier.

  15. Mechanically expandable annular seal

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gilmore, R.F.

    1983-07-19

    A mechanically expandable annular reusable seal assembly to form an annular hermetic barrier between two stationary, parallel, and planar containment surfaces is described. A rotatable ring, attached to the first surface, has ring wedges resembling the saw-tooth array of a hole saw. Matching seal wedges are slidably attached to the ring wedges and have their motion restricted to be perpendicular to the second surface. Each seal wedge has a face parallel to the second surface. An annular elastomer seal has a central annular region attached to the seal wedges' parallel faces and has its inner and outer circumferences attached to the first surface. A rotation of the ring extends the elastomer seal's central region perpendicularly towards the second surface to create the fluid tight barrier. A counter rotation removes the barrier. 6 figs.

  16. Expanding hollow metal rings

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Peacock, Harold B.; Imrich, Kenneth J.

    2009-03-17

    A sealing device that may expand more planar dimensions due to internal thermal expansion of a filler material. The sealing material is of a composition such that when desired environment temperatures and internal actuating pressures are reached, the sealing materials undergoes a permanent deformation. For metallic compounds, this permanent deformation occurs when the material enters the plastic deformation phase. Polymers, and other materials, may be using a sealing mechanism depending on the temperatures and corrosivity of the use. Internal pressures are generated by either rapid thermal expansion or material phase change and may include either liquid or solid to gas phase change, or in the gaseous state with significant pressure generation in accordance with the gas laws. Sealing material thickness and material composition may be used to selectively control geometric expansion of the seal such that expansion is limited to a specific facing and or geometric plane.

  17. Expanding Human Cognition and Communication

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Spohrer, Jim; Pierce, Brian M.; Murray, Cherry A.; Golledge, Reginald G.; Horn, Robert E.; Turkle, Sherry; Yonas, Gerold; Glicken Turnley, Jessica; Pollack, Jordan; Burger, Rudy; Robinett, Warren; Wilson, Larry Todd; Bainbridge, W. S.; Canton, J.; Kuekes, P.; Loomis, J.; Penz, P.

    2013-01-01

    To be able to chart the most profitable future directions for societal transformation and corresponding scientific research, five multidisciplinary themes focused on major goals have been identified to fulfill the overall motivating vision of convergence described in the previous pages. The first, “Expanding Human Cognition and Communication,” is devoted to technological breakthroughs that have the potential to enhance individuals’ mental and interaction abilities. Throughout the twentieth century, a number of purely psychological techniques were offered for strengthening human character and personality, but evaluation research has generally failed to confirm the alleged benefits of these methods (Druckman and Bjork 1992; 1994). Today, there is good reason to believe that a combination of methods, drawing upon varied branches of converging science and technology, would be more effective than attempts that rely upon mental training alone.

  18. Method of Evaluating, Expanding, and Collapsing Connectivity...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Subject: 99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUSMATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE; MAINTENANCE; MONITORS; AUTOMATION; NETWORK ANALYSIS Word Cloud More Like This Full Text ...

  19. Method of Evaluating, Expanding, and Collapsing Connectivity...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    This process eliminates the need for an operator to manually ... Country of Publication: United States Language: English ... SCIENCE; MAINTENANCE; MONITORS; AUTOMATION; NETWORK ANALYSIS

  20. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  1. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  2. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  3. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  4. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  5. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  6. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  7. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  8. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Soft Costs Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar ...

  9. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... will share their expertise with CLASIC and CHAPS forecasters and project leaders as they consult on the forecast that will determine the day's operations plan. -- Storm Prediction ...

  10. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  11. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  12. New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding Print Tuesday, 22 October 2013 00:00 One of the most satisfying...

  13. Stent with expandable foam (Patent) | DOEPatents

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Data Explorer Search Results Stent with expandable foam Title: Stent with expandable foam A stent for treating a physical anomaly. The stent includes a skeletal support structure ...

  14. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-07-20.xlsx (72.85 KB) More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Assessment Report: OAS-V-15-01

  15. Expanding the eukaryotic genetic code

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chin, Jason W.; Cropp, T. Ashton; Anderson, J. Christopher; Schultz, Peter G.

    2009-10-27

    This invention provides compositions and methods for producing translational components that expand the number of genetically encoded amino acids in eukaryotic cells. The components include orthogonal tRNAs, orthogonal aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases, orthogonal pairs of tRNAs/synthetases and unnatural amino acids. Proteins and methods of producing proteins with unnatural amino acids in eukaryotic cells are also provided.

  16. Expanding the eukaryotic genetic code

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chin, Jason W.; Cropp, T. Ashton; Anderson, J. Christopher; Schultz, Peter G.

    2012-05-08

    This invention provides compositions and methods for producing translational components that expand the number of genetically encoded amino acids in eukaryotic cells. The components include orthogonal tRNAs, orthogonal aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases, orthogonal pairs of tRNAs/synthetases and unnatural amino acids. Proteins and methods of producing proteins with unnatural amino acids in eukaryotic cells are also provided.

  17. Expanding the eukaryotic genetic code

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chin, Jason W; Cropp, T. Ashton; Anderson, J. Christopher; Schultz, Peter G

    2015-02-03

    This invention provides compositions and methods for producing translational components that expand the number of genetically encoded amino acids in eukaryotic cells. The components include orthogonal tRNAs, orthogonal aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases, orthogonal pairs of tRNAs/synthetases and unnatural amino acids. Proteins and methods of producing proteins with unnatural amino acids in eukaryotic cells are also provided.

  18. Expanding the eukaryotic genetic code

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chin, Jason W.; Cropp, T. Ashton; Anderson, J. Christopher; Schultz, Peter G.

    2009-11-17

    This invention provides compositions and methods for producing translational components that expand the number of genetically encoded amino acids in eukaryotic cells. The components include orthogonal tRNAs, orthogonal aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases, orthogonal pairs of tRNAs/synthetases and unnatural amino acids. Proteins and methods of producing proteins with unnatural amino acids in eukaryotic cells are also provided.

  19. Expanding the eukaryotic genetic code

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chin, Jason W.; Cropp, T. Ashton; Anderson, J. Christopher; Schultz, Peter G.

    2010-09-14

    This invention provides compositions and methods for producing translational components that expand the number of genetically encoded amino acids in eukaryotic cells. The components include orthogonal tRNAs, orthogonal aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases, orthogonal pairs of tRNAs/synthetases and unnatural amino acids. Proteins and methods of producing proteins with unnatural amino acids in eukaryotic cells are also provided.

  20. Expanding the eukaryotic genetic code

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chin, Jason W.; Cropp, T. Ashton; Anderson, J. Christopher; Schultz, Peter G.

    2009-12-01

    This invention provides compositions and methods for producing translational components that expand the number of genetically encoded amino acids in eukaryotic cells. The components include orthogonal tRNAs, orthogonal aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases, orthogonal pairs of tRNAs/synthetases and unnatural amino acids. Proteins and methods of producing proteins with unnatural amino acids in eukaryotic cells are also provided.

  1. Expanding the eukaryotic genetic code

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chin, Jason W.; Cropp, T. Ashton; Anderson, J. Christopher; Schultz, Peter G.

    2012-02-14

    This invention provides compositions and methods for producing translational components that expand the number of genetically encoded amino acids in eukaryotic cells. The components include orthogonal tRNAs, orthogonal aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases, orthogonal pairs of tRNAs/synthetases and unnatural amino acids. Proteins and methods of producing proteins with unnatural amino acids in eukaryotic cells are also provided.

  2. Expanding the eukaryotic genetic code

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chin, Jason W.; Cropp, T. Ashton; Anderson, J. Christopher; Schultz, Peter G.

    2013-01-22

    This invention provides compositions and methods for producing translational components that expand the number of genetically encoded amino acids in eukaryotic cells. The components include orthogonal tRNAs, orthogonal aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases, orthogonal pairs of tRNAs/synthetases and unnatural amino acids. Proteins and methods of producing proteins with unnatural amino acids in eukaryotic cells are also provided.

  3. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  4. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  5. Recovery Act Expanding the First Significant U.S. … Based Manufacturi...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Hydrogen Programs Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting, June 7-11, 2010 -- ... EA-1710: Final Environmental Assessment Expanding U.S.-based Lithium-ion ...

  6. Development of fine-resolution analyses and expanded large-scale...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    I: Methodology and evaluation Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Development of fine-resolution analyses and expanded large-scale forcing properties. Part I: Methodology ...

  7. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  8. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e

  9. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  10. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  11. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  12. Occupational and traning requirements for expanded coal production (as of October 1980). [Forecasting to 1995

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1982-04-01

    This study was initiated because of the anticipated rapid growth in trained personnel requirements in bituminous coal mining, and because the industry had already experienced significant problems in recruiting skilled manpower in the course of its employment expansion during the 1970's. Employment in bituminous coal mining is projected to nearly double, from 234,000 in 1977 to 456,000 in 1995, as the net result of a projected threefold increase in coal output to nearly 2.0 billion in 1995 and of an expected significant improvement in overall productivity. A large proportion of current coal mining employees are in occupations which require significant amounts of training for effective work performance. Employment growth to 1955 will be most rapid in those occupations requiring the greatest training or educational preparation. The new training infrastructure which has emerged to meet these needs includes both internal, company-operated training programs and those offered by various external providers. Among the latter are: Vocational schools, community colleges, and university extension departments; public agencies, such as MSHA and state mining departments; coal industry trade associations; and vendors or training consultant groups. The Conference Board survey of coal industry training programs, conducted in late 1979, was designed to provide comprehensive data on the scope of the coal industry's own training activities and on related training issues, based on a mail questionnaire survey addressed to all companies producing 300,000 or more tons per year. The training programs are described with emphasis on time changes, regional effects and implications for a coordinated plan.

  13. Frost heave test being expanded

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-03-01

    Northwest Alaskan Pipeline Co. is expanding its frost-heave testing program by adding seven test sites along the planned Alaskan gas transmission pipeline route. The test results will demonstrate the behavior of chilled pipe buried in unfrozen soils. To protect the permafrost in which the pipe will be buried, the pipeline operators will chill the gas in the line to below 32/sup 0/F. In thawed soils, however, frost heave may occur when moisture freezes on the chilled pipe, creates a frost bulb, expands the soil, and causes the chilled pipe to heave upward. Two methods being tested for preventing or minimizing frost heave are (1) insulation, and (2) replacement of frost-susceptible unfrozen soil with a selected bedding material. Each test site will consist of two 80-ft sections of 48 in-diam pipe - one bare, the other with insulation (urethane foam) or insulation plus a bedding-material replacement. The sites will have their own power-generation and refrigeration equipment, as well as data-acquisition systems that will automatically collect information from 800 sensors twice a week.

  14. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... day-ahead wind generation forecasts yields an average of 195M savings in annual operating costs. Figure 6 shows how operating cost savings vary with improvements in forecasting. ...

  15. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  16. Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope Print Wednesday, 25 September 2013 00:00 Initial tests of a new pseudo-single-bunch...

  17. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Subcontracting / Subcontracting Forecasts / UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities

  18. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  19. Symbiosis Conference: Expanding Commercialization of Mutualistic...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Microbes to Increase Bioenergy Crop Production Agenda Symbiosis Conference: Expanding Commercialization of Mutualistic Microbes to Increase Bioenergy Crop Production Agenda ...

  20. Symbiosis Biofeedstock Conference: Expanding Commercialization of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Mutualistic Microbes to Increase Feedstock Production | Department of Energy Biofeedstock Conference: Expanding Commercialization of Mutualistic Microbes to Increase Feedstock Production Symbiosis Biofeedstock Conference: Expanding Commercialization of Mutualistic Microbes to Increase Feedstock Production Symbiosis Biofeedstock Conference sbc_report.pdf (1.75 MB) More Documents & Publications Symbiosis Conference: Expanding Commercialization of Mutualistic Microbes to Increase Bioenergy

  1. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  2. Production of biodiesel using expanded gas solvents

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ginosar, Daniel M; Fox, Robert V; Petkovic, Lucia M

    2009-04-07

    A method of producing an alkyl ester. The method comprises providing an alcohol and a triglyceride or fatty acid. An expanding gas is dissolved into the alcohol to form a gas expanded solvent. The alcohol is reacted with the triglyceride or fatty acid in a single phase to produce the alkyl ester. The expanding gas may be a nonpolar expanding gas, such as carbon dioxide, methane, ethane, propane, butane, pentane, ethylene, propylene, butylene, pentene, isomers thereof, and mixtures thereof, which is dissolved into the alcohol. The gas expanded solvent may be maintained at a temperature below, at, or above a critical temperature of the expanding gas and at a pressure below, at, or above a critical pressure of the expanding gas.

  3. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  4. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  5. RE 1-11 rotary expander engine testing and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wade, J.D.; Brown, G.A.; Silvestri, G.J.; Tompkins, R.M.

    1983-08-01

    This paper describes the testing and computer simulation of the RE 1-11 Wankel type expander. During 1982-1983 the RE 1-11 was evaluated using high pressure steam as a working fluid (2.76-6.5MPa, 231-410C). Test objectives were to map engine performance, identify hardware weaknesses and to provide a data base for simulation validation. The conical rotary inlet valve proved to be the principal problem area, cracking of the carbon seat and steam leakage being dominant factors in expander performance. A steady state computer simulation was developed that was used to predict RE 1-11 performance and to investigate alternative expander configurations. A detailed study was made of RE 1-11 friction losses. All significant hydrodynamic, coulomb and momentum losses were considered and indicated mechanical efficiencies in the range 60 to 80%.

  6. Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope Print Wednesday, 25 September 2013 00:00 Initial tests of a new pseudo-single-bunch (PSB) operational mode at the ALS have shown promising results-PSB would vastly expand the facility's capacity to carry out dynamics and time-of-flight experiments with a major reduction in sample damage. In PSB operation, a single electron bunch is displaced transversely from the other electron bunches circulating in

  7. New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Behavior Expands Understanding Print One of the most satisfying aspects of condensed matter physics is that a variety of condensed matter systems show universal behavior-behavior...

  8. New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding Print One of the most satisfying aspects of condensed matter physics is that a variety of condensed matter systems show...

  9. Sandia Energy - Sandia Expands an International Collaboration...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Expands an International Collaboration and Web Database on Engine Fuel Spray Combustion Research Home Energy Transportation Energy CRF Facilities Partnership News Energy...

  10. Stent with expandable foam (Patent) | DOEPatents

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The stent includes a skeletal support structure for expanding in the physical anomaly and a shape memory material coupled to the skeletal support structure. Inventors: Wilson, ...

  11. Integrated Data Analysis to expand measurement capability

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data Analysis to expand measurement capability Whitepaper submitted to DOE Workshop on Integrated Simulations for Magnetic Fusion Energy Sciences Primary topic: F (Data management, ...

  12. GREET Model Expanded to Better Address Biofuel Life-Cycle Analysis Research

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Questions | Department of Energy GREET Model Expanded to Better Address Biofuel Life-Cycle Analysis Research Questions GREET Model Expanded to Better Address Biofuel Life-Cycle Analysis Research Questions November 23, 2015 - 2:57pm Addthis GREET Model Expanded to Better Address Biofuel Life-Cycle Analysis Research Questions The Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model allows researchers and analysts to fully evaluate the energy and emission

  13. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  14. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  15. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  16. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications » Market Studies » LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030. With declining costs and improving performance, LED products have been seeing increased adoption for general illumination applications. This is a positive development in terms of energy consumption, as LEDs use significantly

  17. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  18. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  19. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  20. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  1. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  2. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  3. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zulkepli, Jafri Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

    2015-12-11

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

  4. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  5. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  6. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  7. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  8. Hanford's Groundwater Treatment System Expands Already Impressive...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    200 West Pump and Treat Facility is shown here. Pumps, filters and piping surround a large, white inlet tank in the background. The expanded portion of the 200 West Pump and Treat ...

  9. Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope Print Initial tests of a new pseudo-single-bunch (PSB) operational mode at the ALS have shown promising results-PSB would vastly...

  10. Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2014: Heavy Duty Roots Expander Heat Energy Recovery (HD-REHER)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation given by Eaton Corporation at 2014 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and Vehicle Technologies Office Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting about heavy duty roots expander...

  11. 2012-02 "Expand the Mission of the NNMCB to Include Advice and...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    can make a contribution to both the technical aspects and the necessary community involvement as WIPP continues to be evaluated for this expanded role. PDF icon Rec 2012-02 -...

  12. New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding Print Tuesday, 22 October 2013 00:00 One of the most satisfying aspects of condensed matter physics is that a variety of condensed matter systems show universal behavior-behavior that appears to be common to a wide variety of unrelated systems. The phenomenon of "jamming," which is similar to what happens to vehicles in traffic jams, fits into this category. Recent ALS research

  13. Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope Print Initial tests of a new pseudo-single-bunch (PSB) operational mode at the ALS have shown promising results-PSB would vastly expand the facility's capacity to carry out dynamics and time-of-flight experiments with a major reduction in sample damage. In PSB operation, a single electron bunch is displaced transversely from the other electron bunches circulating in the storage ring. Experiments that require light emitted only from a single bunch

  14. Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope Print Initial tests of a new pseudo-single-bunch (PSB) operational mode at the ALS have shown promising results-PSB would vastly expand the facility's capacity to carry out dynamics and time-of-flight experiments with a major reduction in sample damage. In PSB operation, a single electron bunch is displaced transversely from the other electron bunches circulating in the storage ring. Experiments that require light emitted only from a single bunch

  15. Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope Print Initial tests of a new pseudo-single-bunch (PSB) operational mode at the ALS have shown promising results-PSB would vastly expand the facility's capacity to carry out dynamics and time-of-flight experiments with a major reduction in sample damage. In PSB operation, a single electron bunch is displaced transversely from the other electron bunches circulating in the storage ring. Experiments that require light emitted only from a single bunch

  16. Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope Print Initial tests of a new pseudo-single-bunch (PSB) operational mode at the ALS have shown promising results-PSB would vastly expand the facility's capacity to carry out dynamics and time-of-flight experiments with a major reduction in sample damage. In PSB operation, a single electron bunch is displaced transversely from the other electron bunches circulating in the storage ring. Experiments that require light emitted only from a single bunch

  17. Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Pseudo-Single-Bunch Expands Experimental Scope Print Initial tests of a new pseudo-single-bunch (PSB) operational mode at the ALS have shown promising results-PSB would vastly expand the facility's capacity to carry out dynamics and time-of-flight experiments with a major reduction in sample damage. In PSB operation, a single electron bunch is displaced transversely from the other electron bunches circulating in the storage ring. Experiments that require light emitted only from a single bunch

  18. Symbiosis Conference: Expanding Commercialization of Mutualistic Microbes

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    to Increase Bioenergy Crop Production Agenda | Department of Energy Conference: Expanding Commercialization of Mutualistic Microbes to Increase Bioenergy Crop Production Agenda Symbiosis Conference: Expanding Commercialization of Mutualistic Microbes to Increase Bioenergy Crop Production Agenda This agenda outlines the sessions and presenters for the Symbiosis Conference in Ithaca, New York, on June 20-21, 2013. symbiosis_conference_agenda.pdf (623.28 KB) More Documents & Publications

  19. Expanding Your Horizons scheduled for March 2

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Expanding Your Horizons Community Connections: Your link to news and opportunities from Los Alamos National Laboratory Latest Issue: September 1, 2016 all issues All Issues » submit Expanding Your Horizons scheduled for March 2 The conference offers fifth- to 12th-grade girls opportunities to participate in hands-on workshops about science, technology, engineering, math and related fields. February 1, 2013 dummy image Read our archives. Contacts Editor Linda Anderman Email Community Programs

  20. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  1. expanding_chp_in_your_state.doc | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    expanding_chp_in_your_state.doc expanding_chp_in_your_state.doc expanding_chp_in_your_state.doc expanding_chp_in_your_state.doc (130 KB) More Documents & Publications Combined Heat and Power: Expanding CHP in Your State Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers (SERC) - Solar Hot Water Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers (SERC) - Geothermal/Ground-Source Heat Pumps

  2. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.

  3. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapiesmore » is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.« less

  4. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  5. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  6. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  7. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  8. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  9. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  10. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  11. Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu Beyond the familiar flu,

  12. PPPL Launches Expanded New Laboratory for Research on the use...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    PPPL Launches Expanded New Laboratory for Research on the use of Plasma to Synthesize Nanoparticles PPPL Launches Expanded New Laboratory for Research on the use of Plasma to ...

  13. Expanding Geothermal Resource Utilization in Nevada through Directed...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Expanding Geothermal Resource Utilization in Nevada through Directed Research and Public Outreach Expanding Geothermal Resource Utilization in Nevada through Directed Research and ...

  14. DOE Expands, Simplifies Loan Guarantees for Renewable Energy...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Expands, Simplifies Loan Guarantees for Renewable Energy Projects DOE Expands, Simplifies Loan Guarantees for Renewable Energy Projects October 14, 2009 - 12:39pm Addthis DOE ...

  15. Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Turbo-Expander and Heat Exchangers...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Turbo-Expander and Heat Exchangers Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Turbo-Expander and Heat Exchangers This fact sheet describes a supercritical carbon ...

  16. Better Buildings Challenge is Expanding, Improving Energy Efficiency...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Better Buildings Challenge is Expanding, Improving Energy Efficiency Throughout America Better ... Better Buildings Expands to Include Multifamily Residential Housing The Better ...

  17. Rocky Flats Site Expands Solar Power for Treating Groundwater...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Rocky Flats Site Expands Solar Power for Treating Groundwater Rocky Flats Site Expands Solar Power for Treating Groundwater April 17, 2013 - 1:26pm Addthis Subcontractor personnel ...

  18. Model for Sustainable Urban Design With Expanded Sections on...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Model for Sustainable Urban Design With Expanded Sections on Distributed Energy Resources, February 2004 Model for Sustainable Urban Design With Expanded Sections on Distributed ...

  19. Savings to Chew On: Wrigley Expands Commitment to Sustainability...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Savings to Chew On: Wrigley Expands Commitment to Sustainability Savings to Chew On: Wrigley Expands Commitment to Sustainability February 19, 2013 - 12:00pm Addthis Wrigley ...

  20. The Other 15%: Expanding Energy Efficiency to Rural Populations...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    The Other 15%: Expanding Energy Efficiency to Rural Populations The Other 15%: Expanding Energy Efficiency to Rural Populations Better Buildings Residential Network Peer Exchange ...

  1. FEMP Expands ESPC ENABLE Program to Include More Energy Conservation...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Expands ESPC ENABLE Program to Include More Energy Conservation Measures FEMP Expands ESPC ENABLE Program to Include More Energy Conservation Measures November 13, 2013 - 12:00am...

  2. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  3. Evaluation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Savings Portfolio (122013) Energy Smart Grocer Impact Evaluation (102013) Energy Smart Industrial - Energy Management Pilot Impact Evaluation (22013) Clark PUD Home...

  4. 2012-02 "Expand the Mission of the NNMCB to Include Advice and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Recommendations on the Evaluation and Use of WIPP" | Department of Energy 2 "Expand the Mission of the NNMCB to Include Advice and Recommendations on the Evaluation and Use of WIPP" 2012-02 "Expand the Mission of the NNMCB to Include Advice and Recommendations on the Evaluation and Use of WIPP" The NNMCAB has a strong interest in the continued use of WIPP for disposal of radioactive wastes that are the legacy of the nuclear weapons program, in particular regarding

  5. New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding Print One of the most satisfying aspects of condensed matter physics is that a variety of condensed matter systems show universal behavior-behavior that appears to be common to a wide variety of unrelated systems. The phenomenon of "jamming," which is similar to what happens to vehicles in traffic jams, fits into this category. Recent ALS research has revealed that even magnetic domains behave very much like other granular material

  6. New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding Print One of the most satisfying aspects of condensed matter physics is that a variety of condensed matter systems show universal behavior-behavior that appears to be common to a wide variety of unrelated systems. The phenomenon of "jamming," which is similar to what happens to vehicles in traffic jams, fits into this category. Recent ALS research has revealed that even magnetic domains behave very much like other granular material

  7. New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding Print One of the most satisfying aspects of condensed matter physics is that a variety of condensed matter systems show universal behavior-behavior that appears to be common to a wide variety of unrelated systems. The phenomenon of "jamming," which is similar to what happens to vehicles in traffic jams, fits into this category. Recent ALS research has revealed that even magnetic domains behave very much like other granular material

  8. New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding Print One of the most satisfying aspects of condensed matter physics is that a variety of condensed matter systems show universal behavior-behavior that appears to be common to a wide variety of unrelated systems. The phenomenon of "jamming," which is similar to what happens to vehicles in traffic jams, fits into this category. Recent ALS research has revealed that even magnetic domains behave very much like other granular material

  9. New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding Print One of the most satisfying aspects of condensed matter physics is that a variety of condensed matter systems show universal behavior-behavior that appears to be common to a wide variety of unrelated systems. The phenomenon of "jamming," which is similar to what happens to vehicles in traffic jams, fits into this category. Recent ALS research has revealed that even magnetic domains behave very much like other granular material

  10. Short wavelength striations on expanding plasma clouds

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Winske, D.; Gary, S.P.

    1989-01-01

    The growth and evolution of short wavelength (expanding across an ambient magnetic field have been actively studied in recent years, both by means of experiments in the laboratory as well as in space and through numerical simulations. We review the relevant observations and simulations results, discuss the instability mechanism and related linear theory, and describe recent work to bring experiments and theory into better agreement. 30 refs., 6 figs.

  11. New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    New Research on Jamming Behavior Expands Understanding Print One of the most satisfying aspects of condensed matter physics is that a variety of condensed matter systems show universal behavior-behavior that appears to be common to a wide variety of unrelated systems. The phenomenon of "jamming," which is similar to what happens to vehicles in traffic jams, fits into this category. Recent ALS research has revealed that even magnetic domains behave very much like other granular material

  12. The "ripples" on relativistically expanding fluid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shi, Shuzhe; Liao, Jinfeng; Zhuang, Pengfei

    2014-12-29

    Recent studies have shown that fluctuations of various types play important roles in the evolution of the fireball created in relativistic heavy ion collisions and bear many phenomenological consequences for experimental observables. The bulk dynamics of the fireball is well described by relativistic hydrodynamic expansion and the fluctuations on top of such expanding background can be studied within the linearized hydrodynamic framework. In this paper we present complete and analytic sound wave solutions on top of both Bjorken flow and Hubble flow backgrounds.

  13. Integrated Data Analysis to expand measurement capability

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data Analysis to expand measurement capability Whitepaper submitted to DOE Workshop on Integrated Simulations for Magnetic Fusion Energy Sciences Primary topic: F (Data management, analysis, and assimilation) Secondary topic: C (Whole device modeling, especially validation) Oral presentation requested if time available D. J. Den Hartog, M. E. Galante, L. M. Reusch, M. D. Nornberg, and the MST Team University of Wisconsin-Madison, djdenhar@wisc.edu, April 2015 Challenge: Data produced by large

  14. Expandable Metal Liner For Downhole Components

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hall, David R.; Fox, Joe R.

    2004-10-05

    A liner for an annular downhole component is comprised of an expandable metal tube having indentations along its surface. The indentations are formed in the wall of the tube either by drawing the tube through a die, by hydroforming, by stamping, or roll forming and may extend axially, radially, or spirally along its wall. The indentations accommodate radial and axial expansion of the tube within the downhole component. The tube is inserted into the annular component and deformed to match an inside surface of the component. The tube may be expanded using a hydroforming process or by drawing a mandrel through the tube. The tube may be expanded in such a manner so as to place it in compression against the inside wall of the component. The tube is useful for improving component hydraulics, shielding components from contamination, inhibiting corrosion, and preventing wear to the downhole component during use. It may also be useful for positioning conduit and insulated conductors within the component. An insulating material may be disposed between the tube and the component in order to prevent galvanic corrosion of the downhole component.

  15. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  16. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  17. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  18. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  19. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  20. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  1. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  2. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  3. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  4. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  5. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models

  6. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  7. FOAM: Expanding the horizons of climate modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tobis, M.; Foster, I.T.; Schafer, C.M.

    1997-10-01

    We report here on a project that expands the applicability of dynamic climate modeling to very long time scales. The Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM) is a coupled ocean atmosphere model that incorporates physics of interest in understanding decade to century time scale variability. It addresses the high computational cost of this endeavor with a combination of improved ocean model formulation, low atmosphere resolution, and efficient coupling. It also uses message passing parallel processing techniques, allowing for the use of cost effective distributed memory platforms. The resulting model runs over 6000 times faster than real time with good fidelity, and has yielded significant results.

  8. Expandable tubulars for use in geologic structures

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Spray, Jeffery A.; Svedeman, Steven; Walter, David; Mckeighan, Peter; Siebanaler, Shane; Dewhurst, Peter; Hobson, Steven; Foss, Doug; Wirz, Holger; Sharpe, Aaron; Apostal, Michael

    2014-08-12

    An expandable tubular includes a plurality of leaves formed from sheet material that have curved surfaces. The leaves extend around a portion or fully around the diameter of the tubular structure. Some of the adjacent leaves of the tubular are coupled together. The tubular is compressed to a smaller diameter so that it can be inserted through previously deployed tubular assemblies. Once the tubular is properly positioned, it is deployed and coupled or not coupled to a previously deployed tubular assembly. The tubular is useful for all types of wells and boreholes.

  9. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  10. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  12. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  13. SRS K-AREA MATERIAL STORAGE - EXPANDING CAPABILITIES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koenig, R.

    2013-07-02

    In support of the Department of Energy’s continued plans to de-inventory and reduce the footprint of Cold War era weapons’ material production sites, the K-Area Material Storage (KAMS) facility, located in the K-Area Complex (KAC) at the Savannah River Site reservation, has expanded since its startup authorization in 2000 to accommodate DOE’s material consolidation mission. During the facility’s growth and expansion, KAMS will have expanded its authorization capability of material types and storage containers to allow up to 8200 total shipping containers once the current expansion effort completes in 2014. Recognizing the need to safely and cost effectively manage other surplus material across the DOE Complex, KAC is constantly evaluating the storage of different material types within K area. When modifying storage areas in KAC, the Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) must undergo extensive calculations and reviews; however, without an extensive and proven security posture the possibility for expansion would not be possible. The KAC maintains the strictest adherence to safety and security requirements for all the SNM it handles. Disciplined Conduct of Operations and Conduct of Projects are demonstrated throughout this historical overview highlighting various improvements in capability, capacity, demonstrated cost effectiveness and utilization of the KAC as the DOE Center of Excellence for safe and secure storage of surplus SNM.

  14. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    direction, using its wind tunnel facility at the windmill farm at the Altamont Pass. The main objective of LLNL's involvement is to provide UC-Davis with improved wind forecasts to drive the parameterization scheme of turbine power curves developed from the wind tunnel facility. Another objective of LLNL's effort is to support the windmill farm operation with real-time wind forecasts for the effective energy management. The forecast skill in capturing the situation to meet the cut-in and cutout speed of given turbines would help reduce the operation cost in low and strong wind scenarios, respectively. The main focus of this report is to evaluate the wind forecast errors of LLNL's three-dimensional real-time weather forecast model at the location with the complex terrain. The assessment of weather forecast accuracy would help quantify the source of wind energy forecast errors from the atmospheric forecast model and/or wind-tunnel module for further improvement in the wind energy forecasting system.

  15. Energy Department Expands Gas Gouging Reporting System to Include...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Expands Gas Gouging Reporting System to Include 1-800 Number: 1-800-244-3301 Energy Department Expands Gas ... of reformulated gasoline in storage and is already helping to ...

  16. Widget:ExpandableBoxStart | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    will be collapsed upon page load and can be expanded by clicking anywhere on the box. Once expanded, the box can be collapsed by clicking anywhere on the box header (the original...

  17. Widget:ExpandableBoxEnd | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    will be collapsed upon page load and can be expanded by clicking anywhere on the box. Once expanded, the box can be collapsed by clicking anywhere on the box header (the original...

  18. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  19. Expanding Robust HCCI Operation (Delphi CRADA)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    2011 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program, and Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation

  20. High temperature expanding cement composition and use

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Nelson, Erik B.; Eilers, Louis H.

    1982-01-01

    A hydratable cement composition useful for preparing a pectolite-containing expanding cement at temperatures above about 150.degree. C. comprising a water soluble sodium salt of a weak acid, a 0.1 molar aqueous solution of which salt has a pH of between about 7.5 and about 11.5, a calcium source, and a silicon source, where the atomic ratio of sodium to calcium to silicon ranges from about 0.3:0.6:1 to about 0.03:1:1; aqueous slurries prepared therefrom and the use of such slurries for plugging subterranean cavities at a temperature of at least about 150.degree. C. The invention composition is useful for preparing a pectolite-containing expansive cement having about 0.2 to about 2 percent expansion, by volume, when cured at at least 150.degree. C.

  1. Expandable mixing section gravel and cobble eductor

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Miller, Arthur L. (Kenyon, MN); Krawza, Kenneth I. (Lakeville, MN)

    1997-01-01

    In a hydraulically powered pump for excavating and transporting slurries in hich it is immersed, the improvement of a gravel and cobble eductor including an expandable mixing section, comprising: a primary flow conduit that terminates in a nozzle that creates a water jet internal to a tubular mixing section of the pump when water pressure is applied from a primary supply flow; a tubular mixing section having a center line in alignment with the nozzle that creates a water jet; a mixing section/exit diffuser column that envelopes the flexible liner; and a secondary inlet conduit that forms an opening at a bas portion of the column and adjacent to the nozzle and water jet to receive water saturated gravel as a secondary flow that mixes with the primary flow inside of the mixing section to form a combined total flow that exits the mixing section and decelerates in the exit diffuser.

  2. An expanded safeguards role for the DOE safeguards analytical laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bingham, C.D.

    1986-01-01

    The New Brunswick Laboratory (NBL) is a Government-owned, Government-operated (GOGO) laboratory, with the mission to provide and maintain a nuclear material measurements and standards laboratory. The functional responsibilities of NBL serve as a technical response to the statutory responsibility of the Department of Energy (DOE) to assure the safeguarding of nuclear materials. In the execution of its mission, NBL carries out activities in six safeguards-related programs: measurement development, measurement evaluation, measurement services, safeguards assessment, reference and calibration materials and site-specific assistance. These program activities have been implemented by NBL for many years; their relative emphases, however, have been changed recently to address the priorities defined by the DOE Office of Safeguards and Security, Defense Programs (OSS/DP). As a consequence, NBL operations are in the ''mainstream'' of domestic safeguards activities. This expanded safeguards role for NBL is discussed in this paper.

  3. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  4. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  5. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  6. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  7. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (stochastic) model with the weather forecast model (deterministic) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  8. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  9. Coiled tubing 1994 update: Expanding applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Teel, M.E.

    1994-06-01

    The coiled tubing (CT) resurgence, which began in late 1989 shows little sign of moderating in spite of lower oil and gas prices. In fact, this so-called revolution continues to expand into major new services and applications. CT units are replacing workover rigs and snubbing units in some areas and have recently started to replace drilling rigs even outside Alaska's North Slope Prudhoe Bay field. Activity is reaching record levels in many areas. Although drilling, completions and flowlines generate a lot of interest, these are currently only a small part of total CT business. About 75% of activity is split evenly between nitrogen, acidizing and cleanouts. The other 25% includes newer services like cementing, fishing, sliding sleeves, logging, underreaming to remove scale or cement and drilling. CT is used to drill slimholes and reentry drainholes up to 6 1/8-in. CT has been used as casing and more casing applications are planned. CT ODs to 3 1/2-in. are produced and 4 1/2-in. OD CT production is scheduled later this year. Larger ODs make CT feasible for replacing conventional jointed tubing and welded flowlines.

  10. Transparency parameters from relativistically expanding outflows

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bgu, D. [University of Roma "Sapienza," I-00185, p.le A. Moro 5, Rome (Italy); Iyyani, S. [Department of Physics, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, AlbaNova University Center, SE-106 91 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2014-09-01

    In many gamma-ray bursts a distinct blackbody spectral component is present, which is attributed to the emission from the photosphere of a relativistically expanding plasma. The properties of this component (temperature and flux) can be linked to the properties of the outflow and have been presented in the case where there is no sub-photospheric dissipation and the photosphere is in coasting phase. First, we present the derivation of the properties of the outflow for finite winds, including when the photosphere is in the accelerating phase. Second, we study the effect of localized sub-photospheric dissipation on the estimation of the parameters. Finally, we apply our results to GRB 090902B. We find that during the first epoch of this burst the photosphere is most likely to be in the accelerating phase, leading to smaller values of the Lorentz factor than the ones previously estimated. For the second epoch, we find that the photosphere is likely to be in the coasting phase.

  11. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  12. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  13. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  14. Evaluation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and infrastructure R&D through its FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies Program to help the United States reduce its dependence on imported petroleum and to pave the way to a future transportation network based on hydrogen. Natural gas vehicles can also reduce emissions of regulated pollutants compared with vehicles powered by conventional fuels such as gasoline and diesel. The goal of this project was to evaluate the safety implications of refueling natural gas vehicles at home with a home

  15. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  16. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...

  17. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  18. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  19. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  20. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  1. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and ...

  2. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  3. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... RIT forecasting is saving costs and improving operational practices for IPC and helping integrate wind power more efficiently and cost effectively. Figure 3 shows how the ...

  4. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Cost Assignment - Only a few respondents partly or fully recover forecasting costs from variable generators. Many simply absorb the costs, possibly viewing them as relatively ...

  5. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  6. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... The licensing arrangement helps to facilitate transfer of the statistical learning algorithms developed in the project to industry use. A leading forecast provider in the United ...

  7. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  8. The Other 15%: Expanding Energy Efficiency to Rural Populations |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy The Other 15%: Expanding Energy Efficiency to Rural Populations The Other 15%: Expanding Energy Efficiency to Rural Populations Better Buildings Residential Network Peer Exchange Call Series: The Other 15%: Expanding Energy Efficiency to Rural Populations, call slides and discussion summary. Call Slides and Discussion Summary (3.17 MB) More Documents & Publications Staged Upgrades - Homeowner-focused Strategies for Encouraging Energy Upgrades over Time Strengthening

  9. Expanded Intermediate-State Structure of a Bacterial Mechanosensitive

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Consumers | Department of Energy Expanded "Green Button" Will Reach Federal Agencies and More American Energy Consumers Expanded "Green Button" Will Reach Federal Agencies and More American Energy Consumers December 6, 2013 - 12:50pm Addthis Applications powered by open energy data were on display at the Energy Datapalooza in June 2012. Initiatives like Green Button will expand the ways consumers -- from homeowners and renters to federal government agencies -- can

  10. DOE Expands International Effort to Develop Fuel-Efficient Trucks |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Expands International Effort to Develop Fuel-Efficient Trucks DOE Expands International Effort to Develop Fuel-Efficient Trucks June 30, 2008 - 2:15pm Addthis GOTHENBURG, SWEDEN - U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Alexander Karsner and Volvo Group CEO Leif Johansson today agreed to expand cooperation to develop more fuel-efficient trucks. Once contractual negotiations are complete later this year, the

  11. Infrastructure Requirements for an Expanded Fuel Ethanol Industry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reynolds, Robert E.

    2002-01-15

    This report provides technical information specifically related to ethanol transportation, distribution, and marketing issues. This report required analysis of the infrastructure requirements for an expanded ethanol industry.

  12. Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG-supplemented formula expands butyrate...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    rhamnosus GG-supplemented formula expands butyrate-producing bacterial strains in food allergic infants Prev Next Title: Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG-supplemented formula...

  13. NREL: Technology Deployment - REopt Model Expands Into Energy...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    REopt Model Expands Into Energy Storage, Resilience, and the Energy-Water Nexus News Upgrade ... Tool REopt: A Platform for Energy System Integration and Optimization ...

  14. Project Profile: Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Turbo-Expander...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Turbo-Expander and Heat Exchangers Project Profile: ... Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) SunShot R&D funding opportunity announcement (FOA), are ...

  15. Science Conferences Expands | OSTI, US Dept of Energy Office...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Science Conferences Expands Back to the OSTI News Listing for 2006 Science Conferences, the Web portal where you can find select science conference papers and proceedings, now ...

  16. "WHAT IS THE UNIVERSE EXPANDING INTO? AND OTHER PERFECTLY REASONABLE...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    January 14, 2012, 9:30am Science On Saturday MBG Auditorium "WHAT IS THE UNIVERSE EXPANDING INTO? AND OTHER PERFECTLY REASONABLE QUESTIONS", Prof. David Goldberg, Department of...

  17. NREL and Solarex Partner to Expand Development of Solar Technology

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Solarex Partner to Expand Development of Solar Technology For more information contact: ... Solarex of Frederick, Md. to conduct further research on thin film photovoltaic modules. ...

  18. Clean Energy Alliance to Expand NREL's Business Assistance Model...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Clean Energy Alliance to Expand NREL's Business Assistance Model October 25, 2006 The National Alliance of Clean Energy Business Incubators (NACEBI) begun in 2000 by U.S. ...

  19. Bush Administration to Expand Department of Energy Former Worker...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Bush Administration to Expand Department of Energy Former Worker Medical Screening Program ... Bodman today announced that the Bush administration will add nine additional medical ...

  20. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  1. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  2. Technical analysis in short-term uranium price forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schramm, D.S.

    1990-03-01

    As market participants anticipate the end of the current uranium price decline and its subsequent reversal, increased attention will be focused upon forecasting future price movements. Although uranium is economically similar to other mineral commodities, it is questionable whether methodologies used to forecast price movements of such commodities may be successfully applied to uranium.

  3. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  4. Regulatory Considerations Associated with the Expanded Adoption of Distributed Solar

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; McLaren, J.; Heeter, J.; Linvill, C.; Shenot, J.; Sedano, R.; Migden-Ostrander, J.

    2013-11-01

    Increased adoption of distributed PV, and other forms of distributed generation, have the potential to affect utility-customer interactions, system costs recovery, and utility revenue streams. If a greater number of electricity customers choose to self-generate, demand for system power will decrease and utility fixed costs will have to be recovered over fewer kilowatt hours of sales. As such, regulators will need to determine the value and cost of additional distributed PV and determine the appropriate allocation of the costs and benefits among consumers. The potential for new business models to emerge also has implications for regulation and rate structures that ensure equitable solutions for all electricity grid users. This report examines regulatory tools and rate designs for addressing emerging issues with the expanded adoption of distributed PV and evaluates the potential effectiveness and viability of these options going forward. It offers the groundwork needed in order for regulators to explore mechanisms and ensure that utilities can collect sufficient revenues to provide reliable electric service, cover fixed costs, and balance cost equity among ratepayers -- while creating a value proposition for customers to adopt distributed PV.

  5. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  6. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  7. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  8. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  9. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  10. Project Managers Guide to Managing Impact and Process Evaluation...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... or replicating components found to be most cost-effective * Reallocating funding within ... process evaluations, prospective data (forecasting), technology trends, market and policy ...

  11. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

  12. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  13. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  14. Global Heat Exchangers Market to be driven by Rapidly Expanding...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    by Rapidly Expanding End-user Industries Home > Groups > Renewable Energy RFPs Wayne31jan's picture Submitted by Wayne31jan(150) Contributor 2 July, 2015 - 00:43 Heat...

  15. EECBG Success Story: Alabama Justice Center Expands its Solar...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Center Expands its Solar Capabilities The roof of the justice center where a solar panel array will be installed to power a solar thermal water-heating system | Photo courtesy ...

  16. GE, Clean Energy Fuels Partner to Expand Natural Gas Highway...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    GE, Clean Energy Fuels Partner to Expand Natural Gas Highway Home > Groups > Clean and Renewable Energy Jessi3bl's picture Submitted by Jessi3bl(15) Member 16 December, 2012 -...

  17. Y-12 grows and expands in the 1950s

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    grows and expands in the 1950's The Alloy Development Program that Harold Cofer and others supported from a maintenance standpoint was one of the key programs in Y-12. The COLEX...

  18. Expanding the Fundamental Chemistry of Thorium Through the Synthesis...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Expanding the Fundamental Chemistry of Thorium Through the Synthesis and Reactivity of the First Molecular Complexes of Th(II) and New Classes of Th(III) and Th(IV) August 29, 2016 ...

  19. Environmental assessment, expanded Ponnequin wind energy project, Weld County, Colorado

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1999-02-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has considered a proposal from the State of Colorado, Office of Energy Conservation (OEC), for funding construction of the Expanded Ponnequin Wind Project in Weld County, Colorado. OEC plans to enter into a contracting arrangement with Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo) for the completion of these activities. PSCo, along with its subcontractors and business partners, are jointly developing the Expanded Ponnequin Wind Project. The purpose of this Final Environmental Assessment (EA) is to provide DOE and the public with information on potential environmental impacts associated with the Expanded Ponnequin Wind Energy Project. This EA, and public comments received on it, were used in DOE`s deliberations on whether to release funding for the expanded project under the Commercialization Ventures Program.

  20. New Financing Tool Expands Market to Institutional Investors...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    New Financing Tool Expands Market to Institutional Investors Photo of the wheel and helm of a boat. A new financing platform designed to open the market for energy efficiency to ...

  1. The Clinton Laboratory begins to expand to Y-12 Buildings

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    to expand to Y-12 Buildings Last week we had begun a lengthy quote from The New World by Richard G. Hewlett and Oscar E. Anderson. This week we will continue to quote from that...

  2. Expanding the Use of Biogas with Fuel Cell Technologies

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE perspective on expanding the use of biogas with fuel cell technologies. Presented by Sunita Satyapal, DOE Fuel Cell Technologies Program, at the NREL/DOE Biogas and Fuel Cells Workshop held June 11-13, 2012, in Golden, Colorado.

  3. Better Buildings Challenge Expands to Multifamily Housing | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Expands to Multifamily Housing December 4, 2013 - 12:00am Addthis The U.S. Departments of Energy and Housing and ... and technical barriers to greater building efficiency. ...

  4. JLab's economic footprint expands (Daily Press) | Jefferson Lab

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    JLab's economic footprint expands (Daily Press) External Link: http://articles.dailypress.com/2011-01-20/news/dp-nws-jlab-economy-20110120_1_je... By jlab_admin on Thu, 2011-01-2

  5. Y-12, UT sign agreement to continue, expand collaborative work...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    UT sign agreement to ... Y-12, UT sign agreement to continue, expand collaborative work Posted: December 18, 2014 - 6:22pm UT Chancellor Jimmy G. Cheek (left) and CNS President and...

  6. Nitrogen expander cycles for large capacity liquefaction of natural gas

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chang, Ho-Myung; Park, Jae Hoon; Gwak, Kyung Hyun; Choe, Kun Hyung

    2014-01-29

    Thermodynamic study is performed on nitrogen expander cycles for large capacity liquefaction of natural gas. In order to substantially increase the capacity, a Brayton refrigeration cycle with nitrogen expander was recently added to the cold end of the reputable propane pre-cooled mixed-refrigerant (C3-MR) process. Similar modifications with a nitrogen expander cycle are extensively investigated on a variety of cycle configurations. The existing and modified cycles are simulated with commercial process software (Aspen HYSYS) based on selected specifications. The results are compared in terms of thermodynamic efficiency, liquefaction capacity, and estimated size of heat exchangers. The combination of C3-MR with partial regeneration and pre-cooling of nitrogen expander cycle is recommended to have a great potential for high efficiency and large capacity.

  7. Expanded Safety Fest 2015 set for September | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Expanded Safety Fest 2015 set for September Expanded Safety Fest 2015 set for September August 21, 2015 - 1:35pm Addthis Oak Ridge, Tennessee - Safer workplaces result in safer communities. Why? Because workers who learn safe practices on the job take them home and into their communities. In Oak Ridge, once a year, an event is held to ensure safer communities by offering free safety classes to anyone who registers. For the fourth consecutive year, the Oak Ridge Business Safety Partnership

  8. Expanded Capacity Microwave-Cleaned Diesel Particulate Filter | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Expanded Capacity Microwave-Cleaned Diesel Particulate Filter Expanded Capacity Microwave-Cleaned Diesel Particulate Filter 2002 DEER Conference Presentation: Industrial Ceramic Solutions, LLC 2002_deer_nixdorf.pdf (1016.17 KB) More Documents & Publications Ultra-Lite Diesel Particulate Filter Cartridge for Reduced Regeneration Time and Fuel Consumption Pleated Ceramic Fiber Diesel Particulate Filter Versatile Diesel Particulate Filter Cartridge Any Size, Any Shape

  9. Expanding Opportunity and Addressing Unique Challenges Facing Women and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Girls of Color | Department of Energy Expanding Opportunity and Addressing Unique Challenges Facing Women and Girls of Color Expanding Opportunity and Addressing Unique Challenges Facing Women and Girls of Color November 17, 2014 - 11:35am Addthis When President Obama founded the White House Council on Women and Girls (CWG) within the first two months of taking office, he charged us with working to address inequalities and barriers facing women and girls in our schools, workplaces, and

  10. New Financing Tool Expands Market to Institutional Investors | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Financing Tool Expands Market to Institutional Investors New Financing Tool Expands Market to Institutional Investors Photo of the wheel and helm of a boat. A new financing platform designed to open the market for energy efficiency to institutional investors, known as Warehouse for Energy Efficiency Loans (WHEEL), was launched in April 2014. WHEEL leverages public funds with private capital to provide low-cost, large-scale financing for residential energy efficiency programs. The