National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for forecast evaluation actual

  1. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  2. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  3. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  4. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  5. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  6. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m

  7. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  8. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  9. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  10. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  11. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  12. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  13. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 -0.9% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $424 3.9% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,992 2,082 4.5% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.37 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $371 $382 3.0% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,371 2,497 5.3% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  14. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  15. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  16. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  17. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  18. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  19. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  20. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  1. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  2. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the integration cost of high levels of solar energy into the electricity grid. This will help SunShot to assess current technology and practices in this field and identify the gaps and needs for further research.

  3. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable.

  4. How People Actually Use Thermostats

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meier, Alan; Aragon, Cecilia; Hurwitz, Becky; Mujumdar, Dhawal; Peffer, Therese; Perry, Daniel; Pritoni, Marco

    2010-08-15

    Residential thermostats have been a key element in controlling heating and cooling systems for over sixty years. However, today's modern programmable thermostats (PTs) are complicated and difficult for users to understand, leading to errors in operation and wasted energy. Four separate tests of usability were conducted in preparation for a larger study. These tests included personal interviews, an on-line survey, photographing actual thermostat settings, and measurements of ability to accomplish four tasks related to effective use of a PT. The interviews revealed that many occupants used the PT as an on-off switch and most demonstrated little knowledge of how to operate it. The on-line survey found that 89% of the respondents rarely or never used the PT to set a weekday or weekend program. The photographic survey (in low income homes) found that only 30% of the PTs were actually programmed. In the usability test, we found that we could quantify the difference in usability of two PTs as measured in time to accomplish tasks. Users accomplished the tasks in consistently shorter times with the touchscreen unit than with buttons. None of these studies are representative of the entire population of users but, together, they illustrate the importance of improving user interfaces in PTs.

  5. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  6. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  7. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01

    features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

  8. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  9. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  10. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  11. Could Material Defects Actually Improve Solar Cells?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Could Material Defects Actually Improve Solar Cells? Could Material Defects Actually Improve Solar Cells? March 21, 2016 Contact: Kathy Kincade, kkincade@lbl.gov, +1 510 495 2124 NRELsolarcell Scientists at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are using supercomputers to study what may seem paradoxical: certain defects in silicon solar cells may actually improve their performance. The findings, published January 11, 2016 in Applied Physics Letters,

  12. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  13. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  14. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  15. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  16. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  17. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  18. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  19. Better Buildings Residential Network Data & Evaluation Peer Exchange...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    activity Campaign tracking, codes Custom reports 8 Project Pipeline Analysis 9 Custom database tools * Forecast vs. actual-YTD and weekly * Direct mail success * Market ...

  20. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  1. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  2. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Soft Costs Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar ...

  3. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... will share their expertise with CLASIC and CHAPS forecasters and project leaders as they consult on the forecast that will determine the day's operations plan. -- Storm Prediction ...

  4. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  5. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  6. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-07-20.xlsx (72.85 KB) More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Assessment Report: OAS-V-15-01

  7. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  8. PERFO RMANC E EVALU ATION AND MEASU REMEN T PLAN Incentiv

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... System in managing and reporting their project performance to ensure that actual progress is reported compared to the internal forecast and that sound management actions are ...

  9. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  10. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  11. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  12. FY 2013 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement FY 2013 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement FY 2013 DARM ...

  13. FY 2012 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement FY 2012 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement FY 2012 DARM ...

  14. Table 13. Coal Production, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Coal Production, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (million short tons)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",999,1021,1041,1051,1056,1066,1073,1081,1087,1098,1107,1122,1121,1128,1143,1173,1201,1223 "AEO 1995",,1006,1010,1011,1016,1017,1021,1027,1033,1040,1051,1066,1076,1083,1090,1108,1122,1137 "AEO

  15. Table 22. Energy Intensity, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Energy Intensity, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (quadrillion Btu / $Billion 2005 Chained GDP)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",10.89145253,10.73335719,10.63428655,10.48440125,10.33479508,10.20669515,10.06546105,9.94541493,9.822393757,9.707148466,9.595465524,9.499032573,9.390723436,9.29474735,9.185496812,9.096176848,9.007677565,8.928276581 "AEO

  16. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e

  17. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... day-ahead wind generation forecasts yields an average of 195M savings in annual operating costs. Figure 6 shows how operating cost savings vary with improvements in forecasting. ...

  18. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  19. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  20. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Subcontracting / Subcontracting Forecasts / UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities

  1. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  2. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  3. Caustic-Side Solvent Extraction: Prediction of Cesium Extraction for Actual Wastes and Actual Waste Simulants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Delmau, L.H.; Haverlock, T.J.; Sloop, F.V., Jr.; Moyer, B.A.

    2003-02-01

    This report presents the work that followed the CSSX model development completed in FY2002. The developed cesium and potassium extraction model was based on extraction data obtained from simple aqueous media. It was tested to ensure the validity of the prediction for the cesium extraction from actual waste. Compositions of the actual tank waste were obtained from the Savannah River Site personnel and were used to prepare defined simulants and to predict cesium distribution ratios using the model. It was therefore possible to compare the cesium distribution ratios obtained from the actual waste, the simulant, and the predicted values. It was determined that the predicted values agree with the measured values for the simulants. Predicted values also agreed, with three exceptions, with measured values for the tank wastes. Discrepancies were attributed in part to the uncertainty in the cation/anion balance in the actual waste composition, but likely more so to the uncertainty in the potassium concentration in the waste, given the demonstrated large competing effect of this metal on cesium extraction. It was demonstrated that the upper limit for the potassium concentration in the feed ought to not exceed 0.05 M in order to maintain suitable cesium distribution ratios.

  4. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  5. FY 2012 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Requirement | Department of Energy Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement FY 2012 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement FY 2012 DARM Transmittal Letter and Attachment Final.pdf (406.93 KB) More Documents & Publications FY 2013 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement Real Property Maintenance Reporting Requirement Memorandum (July 13, 2010)

  6. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  7. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  8. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications » Market Studies » LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030. With declining costs and improving performance, LED products have been seeing increased adoption for general illumination applications. This is a positive development in terms of energy consumption, as LEDs use significantly

  9. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  10. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  11. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  12. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  13. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  14. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  15. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  16. Discomfort Glare: What Do We Actually Know?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clear, Robert

    2012-02-29

    Glare models were reviewed with an eye for missing conditions or inconsistencies. We found ambiguities as to when to use small source versus large source models, and as to what constitutes a glare source in a complex scene. We also found surprisingly little information validating the assumed independence of the factors driving glare. A barrier to progress in glare research is the lack of a standardized dependent measure of glare. We inverted the glare models to predict luminance, and compared model predictions against the 1949 Luckiesh & Guth data that form the basis of many of them. The models perform surprisingly poorly, particularly with regards to the luminance-size relationship and additivity. Evaluating glare in complex scenes may require fundamental changes to form of the glare models.

  17. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  18. FY 2013 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Requirement | Department of Energy Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement FY 2013 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement FY 2013 DARM Transmittal Letter and Attachment Final.pdf (541.36 KB) More Documents & Publications FY 2012 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement FY_09_DM_RM_AM_Reporting_Memo_and_attachment_072009.pdf Real Property Maintenance Reporting Requirement

  19. ,"Table 2a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2008 and Projected 2009 through 2013 " ,"(Megawatts and 2008 ...

  20. ,"Table 2a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2009 and Projected 2010 through 2014 " ,"(Megawatts and 2009 ...

  1. ,"Table 2a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2006 and Projected 2007 through 2011 " ,"(Megawatts and 2006 ...

  2. ,"Table 2b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2007 and Projected 2008 through 2012 " ,"(Megawatts and 2007 ...

  3. ,"Table 2a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2007 and Projected 2008 through 2012 " ,"(Megawatts and 2007 ...

  4. ,"Table 2b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2006 and Projected 2007 through 2011 " ,"(Megawatts and 2006 ...

  5. ,"Table 2b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Council Region, " ,"2005 and Projected 2006 through 2010 " ,"(Megawatts and 2005 Base ...

  6. ,"Table 2b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2009 and Projected 2010 through 2014 " ,"(Megawatts and 2009 ...

  7. Table 14a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Constant Dollars" " (constant dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour in ""dollar year"" specific to each AEO)" ...

  8. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  9. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  10. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  11. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  12. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.

  13. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapiesmore » is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.« less

  14. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  15. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  16. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  17. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  18. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  19. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  20. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  1. Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu Beyond the familiar flu,

  2. Table 16. Total Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    6. Total Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (quadrillion Btu) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ...

  3. Table 9. Natural Gas Production, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Natural Gas Production, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (trillion cubic feet)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2...

  4. Table 10. Natural Gas Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Natural Gas Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (trillion cubic feet)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,...

  5. "Table 7b. Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector, Actual...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector, Actual vs. Projected" "Projected Price in Nominal Dollars" " (nominal dollars per million Btu)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,200...

  6. Table 5. Domestic Crude Oil Production, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Domestic Crude Oil Production, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (million barrels)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,201...

  7. Table 8. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Actual Projected (trillion cubic feet) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 19.87 20.21 20.64 20.99 ...

  8. Table 14b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Nominal Dollars" " (nominal dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,200...

  9. Table 14b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Nominal Dollars (nominal dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 ...

  10. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  11. Evaluation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Savings Portfolio (122013) Energy Smart Grocer Impact Evaluation (102013) Energy Smart Industrial - Energy Management Pilot Impact Evaluation (22013) Clark PUD Home...

  12. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  13. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  14. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  15. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  16. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  17. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  18. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  19. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  20. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  1. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  2. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models

  3. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  4. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  5. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  6. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  7. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    direction, using its wind tunnel facility at the windmill farm at the Altamont Pass. The main objective of LLNL's involvement is to provide UC-Davis with improved wind forecasts to drive the parameterization scheme of turbine power curves developed from the wind tunnel facility. Another objective of LLNL's effort is to support the windmill farm operation with real-time wind forecasts for the effective energy management. The forecast skill in capturing the situation to meet the cut-in and cutout speed of given turbines would help reduce the operation cost in low and strong wind scenarios, respectively. The main focus of this report is to evaluate the wind forecast errors of LLNL's three-dimensional real-time weather forecast model at the location with the complex terrain. The assessment of weather forecast accuracy would help quantify the source of wind energy forecast errors from the atmospheric forecast model and/or wind-tunnel module for further improvement in the wind energy forecasting system.

  8. Table 4. Total Petroleum Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Petroleum Consumption, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (million barrels)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",6449.55,6566.35,6643,6723.3,6810.9,6880.25,6956.9,7059.1,7124.8,7205.1,7296.35,7376.65,7446,7522.65,7595.65,7665,7712.45,7774.5 "AEO

  9. Table 6. Petroleum Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (million barrels)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",2934.6,3201.05,3361.65,3504,3657.3,3737.6,3879.95,3993.1,4098.95,4212.1,4303.35,4398.25,4474.9,4540.6,4584.4,4639.15,4668.35,4672 "AEO

  10. FRACTIONAL CRYSTALLIZATION FLOWSHEET TESTS WITH ACTUAL TANK WASTE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    HERTING, D.L.

    2007-04-13

    Laboratory-scale flowsheet tests of the fractional crystallization process were conducted with actual tank waste samples in a hot cell at the 2224 Laboratory. The process is designed to separate medium-curie liquid waste into a low-curie stream for feeding to supplemental treatment and a high-curie stream for double-shell tank storage. Separations criteria (for Cesium-137 sulfate and sodium) were exceeded in all three of the flowsheet tests that were performed.

  11. FRACTIONAL CRYSTALLIZATION FLOWSHEET TESTS WITH ACTUAL TANK WASTE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    HERTING, D.L.

    2006-10-18

    Laboratory-scale flowsheet tests of the fractional crystallization process were conducted with actual tank waste samples in a hot cell at the 222-S Laboratory. The process is designed to separate medium-curie liquid waste into a low-curie stream for feeding to supplemental treatment and a high-curie stream for double-shell tank storage. Separations criteria (for Cs-137 sulfate, and sodium) were exceeded in all three of the flowsheet tests that were performed.

  12. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  13. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  14. Dose Rate Analysis Capability for Actual Spent Fuel Transportation Cask Contents

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radulescu, Georgeta; Lefebvre, Robert A; Peplow, Douglas E.; Williams, Mark L; Scaglione, John M

    2014-01-01

    The approved contents for a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensed spent nuclear fuel casks are typically based on bounding used nuclear fuel (UNF) characteristics. However, the contents of the UNF canisters currently in storage at independent spent fuel storage installations are considerably heterogeneous in terms of fuel assembly burnup, initial enrichment, decay time, cladding integrity, etc. Used Nuclear Fuel Storage, Transportation & Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNF ST&DARDS) is an integrated data and analysis system that facilitates automated cask-specific safety analyses based on actual characteristics of the as-loaded UNF. The UNF-ST&DARDS analysis capabilities have been recently expanded to include dose rate analysis of as-loaded transportation packages. Realistic dose rate values based on actual canister contents may be used in place of bounding dose rate values to support development of repackaging operations procedures, evaluation of radiation-related transportation risks, and communication with stakeholders. This paper describes the UNF-ST&DARDS dose rate analysis methodology based on actual UNF canister contents and presents sample dose rate calculation results.

  15. Characterization, Leaching, and Filtration Testing for Tributyl Phosphate (TBP, Group 7) Actual Waste Sample Composites

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, Matthew K.; Billing, Justin M.; Blanchard, David L.; Buck, Edgar C.; Casella, Amanda J.; Casella, Andrew M.; Crum, J. V.; Daniel, Richard C.; Draper, Kathryn E.; Fiskum, Sandra K.; Jagoda, Lynette K.; Jenson, Evan D.; Kozelisky, Anne E.; MacFarlan, Paul J.; Peterson, Reid A.; Shimskey, Rick W.; Snow, Lanee A.; Swoboda, Robert G.

    2009-03-09

    .A testing program evaluating actual tank waste was developed in response to Task 4 from the M-12 External Flowsheet Review Team (EFRT) issue response plan. The bulk water-insoluble solid wastes that are anticipated to be delivered to the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) were identified according to type such that the actual waste testing could be targeted to the relevant categories. Eight broad waste groupings were defined. Samples available from the 222S archive were identified and obtained for testing. The actual waste-testing program included homogenizing the samples by group, characterizing the solids and aqueous phases, and performing parametric leaching tests. The tributyl phosphate sludge (TBP, Group 7) is the subject of this report. The Group 7 waste was anticipated to be high in phosphorus as well as aluminum in the form of gibbsite. Both are believed to exist in sufficient quantities in the Group 7 waste to address leaching behavior. Thus, the focus of the Group 7 testing was on the removal of both P and Al. The waste-type definition, archived sample conditions, homogenization activities, characterization (physical, chemical, radioisotope, and crystal habit), and caustic leaching behavior as functions of time, temperature, and hydroxide concentration are discussed in this report. Testing was conducted according to TP-RPP-WTP-467.

  16. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  17. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  18. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  19. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  20. Table 12. Total Coal Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Coal Consumption, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (million short tons)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",920,928,933,938,943,948,953,958,962,967,978,990,987,992,1006,1035,1061,1079 "AEO 1995",,935,940,941,947,948,951,954,958,963,971,984,992,996,1002,1013,1025,1039 "AEO

  1. Table 12. Total Coal Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Coal Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million short tons) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 920 928 933 938 943 948 953 958 962 967 978 990 987 992 1006 1035 1061 1079 AEO 1995 935 940 941 947 948 951 954 958 963 971 984 992 996 1002 1013 1025 1039 AEO 1996 937 942 954 962 983 990 1004 1017 1027 1033 1046 1067 1070 1071 1074 1082 1087 1094 1103 AEO 1997 948 970 987 1003 1017 1020 1025 1034 1041

  2. Table 13. Coal Production, Projected vs. Actual Projected

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Coal Production, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million short tons) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 999 1021 1041 1051 1056 1066 1073 1081 1087 1098 1107 1122 1121 1128 1143 1173 1201 1223 AEO 1995 1006 1010 1011 1016 1017 1021 1027 1033 1040 1051 1066 1076 1083 1090 1108 1122 1137 AEO 1996 1037 1044 1041 1045 1061 1070 1086 1100 1112 1121 1135 1156 1161 1167 1173 1184 1190 1203 1215 AEO 1997 1028 1052 1072 1088

  3. Table 15. Total Electricity Sales, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Electricity Sales, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (billion kilowatt-hours)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",2843,2891,2928,2962,3004,3039,3071,3112,3148,3185,3228,3263,3298,3332,3371,3406,3433,3469 "AEO 1995",,2951,2967,2983,3026,3058,3085,3108,3134,3166,3204,3248,3285,3321,3357,3396,3433,3475 "AEO

  4. Table 15. Total Electricity Sales, Projected vs. Actual Projected

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Electricity Sales, Projected vs. Actual Projected (billion kilowatt-hours) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 2843 2891 2928 2962 3004 3039 3071 3112 3148 3185 3228 3263 3298 3332 3371 3406 3433 3469 AEO 1995 2951 2967 2983 3026 3058 3085 3108 3134 3166 3204 3248 3285 3321 3357 3396 3433 3475 AEO 1996 2973 2998 3039 3074 3106 3137 3173 3215 3262 3317 3363 3409 3454 3505 3553 3604 3660 3722 3775 AEO 1997 3075

  5. Table 4. Total Petroleum Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Petroleum Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million barrels) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 6450 6566 6643 6723 6811 6880 6957 7059 7125 7205 7296 7377 7446 7523 7596 7665 7712 7775 AEO 1995 6398 6544 6555 6676 6745 6822 6888 6964 7048 7147 7245 7337 7406 7472 7537 7581 7621 AEO 1996 6490 6526 6607 6709 6782 6855 6942 7008 7085 7176 7260 7329 7384 7450 7501 7545 7581 7632 7676 AEO 1997 6636 6694

  6. Table 5. Domestic Crude Oil Production, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Domestic Crude Oil Production, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million barrels) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 2508 2373 2256 2161 2088 2022 1953 1891 1851 1825 1799 1781 1767 1759 1778 1789 1807 1862 AEO 1995 2402 2307 2205 2095 2037 1967 1953 1924 1916 1905 1894 1883 1887 1887 1920 1945 1967 AEO 1996 2387 2310 2248 2172 2113 2062 2011 1978 1953 1938 1916 1920 1927 1949 1971 1986 2000 2018 2055 AEO 1997 2362 2307

  7. Table 6. Petroleum Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual Projected

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million barrels) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 2935 3201 3362 3504 3657 3738 3880 3993 4099 4212 4303 4398 4475 4541 4584 4639 4668 4672 AEO 1995 2953 3157 3281 3489 3610 3741 3818 3920 4000 4103 4208 4303 4362 4420 4442 4460 4460 AEO 1996 3011 3106 3219 3398 3519 3679 3807 3891 3979 4070 4165 4212 4260 4289 4303 4322 4325 4347 4344 AEO 1997 3099 3245 3497

  8. Final Report. LAW Glass Formulation to Support AP-101 Actual Waste Testing, VSL-03R3470-2, Rev. 0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Muller, I. S.; Pegg, I. L.; Rielley, Elizabeth; Carranza, Isidro; Hight, Kenneth; Lai, Shan-Tao T.; Mooers, Cavin; Bazemore, Gina; Cecil, Richard; Kruger, Albert A.

    2015-06-22

    The main objective of the work was to develop and select a glass formulation for vitrification testing of the actual waste sample of LAW AP-101 at Battelle - Pacific Northwest Division (PNWD). Other objectives of the work included preparation and characterization of glasses to demonstrate compliance with contract and processing requirements, evaluation of the ability to achieve waste loading requirements, testing to demonstrate compatibility of the glass melts with melter materials of construction, comparison of the properties of simulant and actual waste glasses, and identification of glass formulation issues with respect to contract specifications and processing requirements.

  9. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  10. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  11. Actual and Estimated Energy Savings Comparison for Deep Energy Retrofits in the Pacific Northwest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blanchard, Jeremy; Widder, Sarah H.; Giever, Elisabeth L.; Baechler, Michael C.

    2012-10-01

    Seven homes from the Pacific Northwest were selected to evaluate the differences between estimated and actual energy savings achieved from deep energy retrofits. The energy savings resulting from these retrofits were estimated, using energy modeling software, to save at least 30% on a whole-house basis. The modeled pre-retrofit energy use was trued against monthly utility bills. After the retrofits were completed, each of the homes was extensively monitored, with the exception of one home which was monitored pre-retrofit. This work is being conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Department of Energy Building Technologies Program as part of the Building America Program. This work found many discrepancies between actual and estimated energy savings and identified the potential causes for the discrepancies. The differences between actual energy use and modeled energy use also suggest improvements to improve model accuracy. The difference between monthly whole-house actual and estimated energy savings ranged from 75% more energy saved than predicted by the model to 16% less energy saved for all the monitored homes. Similarly, the annual energy savings difference was between 36% and -14%, which was estimated based on existing monitored savings because an entire year of data is not available. Thus, on average, for all six monitored homes the actual energy use is consistently less than estimates, indicating home owners are saving more energy than estimated. The average estimated savings for the eight month monitoring period is 43%, compared to an estimated savings average of 31%. Though this average difference is only 12%, the range of inaccuracies found for specific end-uses is far greater and are the values used to directly estimate energy savings from specific retrofits. Specifically, the monthly post-retrofit energy use differences for specific end-uses (i.e., heating, cooling, hot water, appliances, etc.) ranged from 131% under

  12. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  13. Table 16. Total Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (quadrillion Btu)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",88.02,89.53,90.72,91.73,92.71,93.61,94.56,95.73,96.69,97.69,98.89,100,100.79,101.7,102.7,103.6,104.3,105.23 "AEO 1995",,89.21,89.98,90.57,91.91,92.98,93.84,94.61,95.3,96.19,97.18,98.38,99.37,100.3,101.2,102.1,102.9,103.88 "AEO

  14. Table 8. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Natural Gas Consumption, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (trillion cubic feet)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",19.87,20.21,20.64,20.99,21.2,21.42,21.6,21.99,22.37,22.63,22.95,23.22,23.58,23.82,24.09,24.13,24.02,24.14 "AEO 1995",,20.82,20.66,20.85,21.21,21.65,21.95,22.12,22.25,22.43,22.62,22.87,23.08,23.36,23.61,24.08,24.23,24.59 "AEO

  15. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  16. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  17. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and ...

  18. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  19. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  20. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...

  1. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  2. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  3. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  4. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... RIT forecasting is saving costs and improving operational practices for IPC and helping integrate wind power more efficiently and cost effectively. Figure 3 shows how the ...

  5. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Cost Assignment - Only a few respondents partly or fully recover forecasting costs from variable generators. Many simply absorb the costs, possibly viewing them as relatively ...

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  7. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... The licensing arrangement helps to facilitate transfer of the statistical learning algorithms developed in the project to industry use. A leading forecast provider in the United ...

  8. Evaluation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and infrastructure R&D through its FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies Program to help the United States reduce its dependence on imported petroleum and to pave the way to a future transportation network based on hydrogen. Natural gas vehicles can also reduce emissions of regulated pollutants compared with vehicles powered by conventional fuels such as gasoline and diesel. The goal of this project was to evaluate the safety implications of refueling natural gas vehicles at home with a home

  9. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  10. Actual Scale MOX Powder Mixing Test for MOX Fuel Fabrication Plant in Japan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Osaka, Shuichi; Kurita, Ichiro; Deguchi, Morimoto; Ito, Masanori; Goto, Masakazu

    2007-07-01

    Japan Nuclear Fuel Ltd. (hereafter, JNFL) promotes a program of constructing a MOX fuel fabrication plant (hereafter, J-MOX) to fabricate MOX fuels to be loaded in domestic light water reactors. Since Japanese fiscal year (hereafter, JFY) 1999, JNFL, to establish the technology for a smooth start-up and the stable operation of J-MOX, has executed an evaluation test for technology to be adopted at J-MOX. JNFL, based on a consideration that J-MOX fuel fabrication comes commercial scale production, decided an introduction of MIMAS technology into J-MOX main process, from powder mixing through pellet sintering, well recognized as mostly important to achieve good quality product of MOX fuel, since it achieves good results in both fuel production and actual reactor irradiation in Europe, but there is one difference that JNFL is going to use Japanese typical plutonium and uranium mixed oxide powder converted with the micro-wave heating direct de-nitration technology (hereafter, MH-MOX) but normal PuO{sub 2} of European MOX fuel fabricators. Therefore, in order to evaluate the suitability of the MH-MOX powder for the MIMAS process, JNFL manufactured small scale test equipment, and implemented a powder mixing evaluation test up until JFY 2003. As a result, the suitability of the MH-MOX powder for the MIMAS process was positively evaluated and confirmed It was followed by a five-years test named an 'actual test' from JFY 2003 to JFY 2007, which aims at demonstrating good operation and maintenance of process equipment as well as obtaining good quality of MOX fuel pellets. (authors)

  11. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  12. Table 10. Natural Gas Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual Projected

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Natural Gas Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual Projected (trillion cubic feet) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 2.02 2.40 2.66 2.74 2.81 2.85 2.89 2.93 2.95 2.97 3.00 3.16 3.31 3.50 3.57 3.63 3.74 3.85 AEO 1995 2.46 2.54 2.80 2.87 2.87 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.92 2.95 2.97 3.00 3.03 3.19 3.35 3.51 3.60 AEO 1996 2.56 2.75 2.85 2.88 2.93 2.98 3.02 3.06 3.07 3.09 3.12 3.17 3.23 3.29 3.37 3.46 3.56 3.68 3.79 AEO 1997 2.82 2.96

  13. Table 14a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Constant Dollars (constant dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) AEO $ Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 1992 6.80 6.80 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.90 7.00 7.00 7.10 7.10 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.30 7.30 7.40 7.50 7.60 AEO 1995 1993 6.80 6.80 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.80 6.80 6.90 6.90 6.90 7.00 7.00 7.10 7.10 7.20

  14. Table 18. Total Delivered Commercial Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Delivered Commercial Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (quadrillion Btu) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 AEO 1995 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 AEO 1996 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 AEO 1997 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9

  15. Table 22. Energy Intensity, Projected vs. Actual Projected

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Energy Intensity, Projected vs. Actual Projected (quadrillion Btu / $Billion 2005 Chained GDP) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 AEO 1995 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.7 AEO 1996 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.5 AEO 1997 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4

  16. Table 9. Natural Gas Production, Projected vs. Actual Projected

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Natural Gas Production, Projected vs. Actual Projected (trillion cubic feet) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 17.71 17.68 17.84 18.12 18.25 18.43 18.58 18.93 19.28 19.51 19.80 19.92 20.13 20.18 20.38 20.35 20.16 20.19 AEO 1995 18.28 17.98 17.92 18.21 18.63 18.92 19.08 19.20 19.36 19.52 19.75 19.94 20.17 20.28 20.60 20.59 20.88 AEO 1996 18.90 19.15 19.52 19.59 19.59 19.65 19.73 19.97 20.36 20.82 21.25 21.37 21.68

  17. Actual versus predicted impacts of three ethanol plants on aquatic and terrestrial resources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eddlemon, G.K.; Webb, J.W.; Hunsaker, D.B. Jr.; Miller, R.L.

    1993-03-15

    To help reduce US dependence on imported petroleum, Congress passed the Energy Security Act of 1980 (public Law 96-294). This legislation authorized the US Department of Energy (DOE) to promote expansion of the fuel alcohol industry through, among other measures, its Alcohol Fuels Loan Guarantee Program. Under this program, selected proposals for the conversion of plant biomass into fuel-grade ethanol would be granted loan guarantees. of 57 applications submitted for loan guarantees to build and operate ethanol fuel projects under this program, 11 were considered by DOE to have the greatest potential for satisfying DOE`s requirements and goals. In accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), DOE evaluated the potential impacts of proceeding with the Loan Guarantee Program in a programmatic environmental assessment (DOE 1981) that resulted in a finding of no significant impact (FANCY) (47 Federal Register 34, p. 7483). The following year, DOE conducted site-specific environmental assessments (EAs) for 10 of the proposed projects. These F-As predicted no significant environmental impacts from these projects. Eventually, three ethanol fuel projects received loan guarantees and were actually built: the Tennol Energy Company (Tennol; DOE 1982a) facility near Jasper in southeastern Tennessee; the Agrifuels Refining Corporation (Agrifuels; DOE 1985) facility near New Liberia in southern Louisiana; and the New Energy Company of Indiana (NECI; DOE 1982b) facility in South Bend, Indiana. As part of a larger retrospective examination of a wide range of environmental effects of ethanol fuel plants, we compared the actual effects of the three completed plants on aquatic and terrestrial resources with the effects predicted in the NEPA EAs several years earlier. A secondary purpose was to determine: Why were there differences, if any, between actual effects and predictions? How can assessments be improved and impacts reduced?

  18. Technical analysis in short-term uranium price forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schramm, D.S.

    1990-03-01

    As market participants anticipate the end of the current uranium price decline and its subsequent reversal, increased attention will be focused upon forecasting future price movements. Although uranium is economically similar to other mineral commodities, it is questionable whether methodologies used to forecast price movements of such commodities may be successfully applied to uranium.

  19. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  20. Filtration and Leach Testing for REDOX Sludge and S-Saltcake Actual Waste Sample Composites

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shimskey, Rick W.; Billing, Justin M.; Buck, Edgar C.; Daniel, Richard C.; Draper, Kathryn E.; Edwards, Matthew K.; Geeting, John GH; Hallen, Richard T.; Jenson, Evan D.; Kozelisky, Anne E.; MacFarlan, Paul J.; Peterson, Reid A.; Snow, Lanee A.; Swoboda, Robert G.

    2009-02-20

    A testing program evaluating actual tank waste was developed in response to Task 4 from the M-12 External Flowsheet Review Team (EFRT) issue response plan.( ) The test program was subdivided into logical increments. The bulk water-insoluble solid wastes that are anticipated to be delivered to the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) were identified according to type such that the actual waste testing could be targeted to the relevant categories. Under test plan TP-RPP-WTP-467, eight broad waste groupings were defined. Samples available from the 222S archive were identified and obtained for testing. Under this test plan, a waste-testing program was implemented that included: • Homogenizing the archive samples by group as defined in the test plan • Characterizing the homogenized sample groups • Performing parametric leaching testing on each group for compounds of interest • Performing bench-top filtration/leaching tests in the hot cell for each group to simulate filtration and leaching activities if they occurred in the UFP2 vessel of the WTP Pretreatment Facility. This report focuses on filtration/leaching tests performed on two of the eight waste composite samples and follow-on parametric tests to support aluminum leaching results from those tests.

  1. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  2. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  3. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  4. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  5. Project Managers Guide to Managing Impact and Process Evaluation...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... or replicating components found to be most cost-effective * Reallocating funding within ... process evaluations, prospective data (forecasting), technology trends, market and policy ...

  6. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

  7. Meteorological field measurements at potential and actual wind turbine sites

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Renne, D.S.; Sandusky, W.F.; Hadley, D.L.

    1982-09-01

    An overview of experiences gained in a meteorological measurement program conducted at a number of locations around the United States for the purpose of site evaluation for wind energy utilization is provided. The evolution of the measurement program from its inception in 1976 to the present day is discussed. Some of the major accomplishments and areas for improvement are outlined. Some conclusions on research using data from this program are presented.

  8. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  9. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  10. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  11. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  12. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  13. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  14. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler ... M Jensen et al., March 2016, DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting ...

  15. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  16. DOE Publishes New Forecast of Energy Savings from LED Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy has just published the latest edition of its biannual report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, which models the...

  17. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  18. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  19. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind ...

  20. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  1. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  2. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  3. New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering illustrates the full site installation, including a new aerosol observing system (far left) and a precipitation radar (far right, with 20-ft tower). The site is located near the Graciosa Island aiport terminal, hidden by the image inset. | Image courtesy of ARM Climate Research Facility. This artist's

  4. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  5. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  6. Dissolution Studies With Pilot Plant and Actual INTEC Calcines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Herbst, Ronald Scott; Garn, Troy Gerry

    1999-04-01

    The dissolution of Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC) pilot plant calcines was examined to determine solubility of calcine matrix components in acidic media. Two representatives pilot plant calcine types were studied: Zirconia calcine and Zirconia/ Sodium calcine. Dissolution of these calcines was evaluated using lower initial concentrations of nitric acid than used in previous tests to decrease the [H+] concentration in the final solutions. Lower [H+] concentrations contribute to more favorable TRUEX/SREX solvent extraction flowsheet performance. Dissolution and analytical results were also obtained for radioactive calcines produced using high sodium feeds blended with non-radioactive A1(NO3)3 solutions to dilute the sodium concentration and prevent bed agglomeration during the calcination process. Dissolution tests indicated >95 wt. % of the initial calcine mass can be dissolved using the baseline dissolution procedure, with the exception that higher initial nitric acid concentrations are required. The higher initial acid concentration is required for stoichiometric dissolution of the oxides, primarily aluminum oxide. Statistically designed experiments using pilot plant calcine were performed to determine the effect of mixing rate on dissolution efficiency. Mixing rate was determined to provide minimal effects on wt. % dissolution. The acid/calcine ratio and temperature were the predominate variables affecting the wt. % dissolution, a result consistent with previous studies using other similar types of pilot plant calcines.

  7. Predicted Versus Actual Savings for a Low-Rise Multifamily Retrofit in Boulder, Colorado

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arena, L.; Williamson, J.

    2013-11-01

    To determine the most cost-effective methods of improving buildings, accurate analysis and prediction of the energy use of existing buildings is essential. However, multiple studies confirm that analysis methods tend to over-predict energy use in poorly insulated, leaky homes and thus, the savings associated with improving those homes. In NREL's report titled 'Assessing and Improving the Accuracy of Energy Analysis of Residential Buildings,' researchers propose a method for improving the accuracy of residential energy analysis methods. A key step in this process involves the comparisons of predicted versus metered energy use and savings. In support of this research need, CARB evaluated the retrofit of a multifamily building in Boulder, CO. The updated property is a 37 unit, 2 story apartment complex built in 1950, which underwent renovations in early 2009 to bring it into compliance with Boulder, CO's SmartRegs ordinance. Goals of the study were to: 1) evaluate predicted versus actual savings due to the improvements, 2) identify areas where the modeling assumptions may need to be changed, and 3) determine common changes made by renters that would negatively impact energy savings. In this study, CARB seeks to improve the accuracy of modeling software while assessing retrofit measures to specifically determine which are most effective for large multifamily complexes in the cold climate region. Other issues that were investigated include the effects of improving building efficiency on tenant comfort, the impact on tenant turnover rates, and the potential market barriers for this type of community scale project.

  8. Predicted Versus Actual Savings for a Low-Rise Multifamily Retrofit in Boulder, Colorado

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arena, L.; Williamson, J.

    2013-11-01

    To determine the most cost-effective methods of improving buildings, accurate analysis and prediction of the energy use of existing buildings is essential. However, multiple studies confirm that analysis methods tend to over-predict energy use in poorly insulated, leaky homes and thus, the savings associated with improving those homes. In this project, the Building America CARB team evaluated the retrofit of a multifamily building in Boulder, CO. The updated property is a 37 unit, 2 story apartment complex built in 1950, which underwent renovations in early 2009 to bring it into compliance with Boulder, CO's SmartRegs ordinance. Goals of the study were to: 1) evaluate predicted versus actual savings due to the improvements, 2) identify areas where the modeling assumptions may need to be changed, and 3) determine common changes made by renters that would negatively impact energy savings. Other issues that were investigated include the effects of improving building efficiency on tenant comfort, the impact on tenant turnover rates, and the potential market barriers for this type of community scale project.

  9. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  10. ,"Table 1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Jaunary 2010" ,"Next Update: October 2010" ,"Table 1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2008 and Projected ...

  11. ,"Table 1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    . Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2009 and Projected 2010 through 2014" ,"(Thousands of Megawatthours and ...

  12. ,"Table 1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2006 and Projected 2008 through 2012 " ,"(Thousands of Megawatthours and ...

  13. ,"Table 1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2006 and Projected 2007 through 2011 " ,"(Thousands of Megawatthours and ...

  14. Waste Treatment Plant Liquid Effluent Treatability Evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    LUECK, K.J.

    2001-06-07

    Bechtel National, Inc. (BNI) provided a forecast of the radioactive, dangerous liquid effluents expected to be generated by the Waste Treatment Plant (WTP). The forecast represents the liquid effluents generated from the processing of 25 distinct batches of tank waste through the WTP. The WTP liquid effluents will be stored, treated, and disposed of in the Liquid Effluent Retention Facility (LERF) and the Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF). Fluor Hanford, Inc. (FH) evaluated the treatability of the WTP liquid effluents in the LERFIETF. The evaluation was conducted by comparing the forecast to the LERFIETF treatability envelope, which provides information on the items that determine if a liquid effluent is acceptable for receipt and treatment at the LERFIETF. The WTP liquid effluent forecast is outside the current LERFlETF treatability envelope. There are several concerns that must be addressed before the WTP liquid effluents can be accepted at the LERFIETF.

  15. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  16. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  17. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  18. Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts May 11, 2016 - 6:48pm Addthis Balancing the power grid is an art-or at least a scientific study in chaos-and the Energy Department is hoping wind energy can take a greater role in the act. Yet, the intermittency of wind-sometimes it's blowing, sometimes it's not-makes adding it smoothly to the nation's electrical grid a challenge.

  19. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-02-01

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  20. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  1. Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System ...

  2. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  3. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  4. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  5. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information ...

  6. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods

  7. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  8. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  9. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  10. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help

  11. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  12. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  13. ACTUAL-WASTE TESTING OF ULTRAVIOLET LIGHT TO AUGMENT THE ENHANCED CHEMICAL CLEANING OF SRS SLUDGE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martino, C.; King, W.; Ketusky, E.

    2012-07-10

    In support of Savannah River Site (SRS) tank closure efforts, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) conducted Real Waste Testing (RWT) to evaluate Enhanced Chemical Cleaning (ECC), an alternative to the baseline 8 wt% oxalic acid (OA) chemical cleaning technology for tank sludge heel removal. ECC utilizes a more dilute OA solution (2 wt%) and an oxalate destruction technology using ozonolysis with or without the application of ultraviolet (UV) light. SRNL conducted tests of the ECC process using actual SRS waste material from Tanks 5F and 12H. The previous phase of testing involved testing of all phases of the ECC process (sludge dissolution, OA decomposition, product evaporation, and deposition tank storage) but did not involve the use of UV light in OA decomposition. The new phase of testing documented in this report focused on the use of UV light to assist OA decomposition, but involved only the OA decomposition and deposition tank portions of the process. Compared with the previous testing at analogous conditions without UV light, OA decomposition with the use of UV light generally reduced time required to reach the target of <100 mg/L oxalate. This effect was the most pronounced during the initial part of the decomposition batches, when pH was <4. For the later stages of each OA decomposition batch, the increase in OA decomposition rate with use of the UV light appeared to be minimal. Testing of the deposition tank storage of the ECC product resulted in analogous soluble concentrations regardless of the use or non-use of UV light in the ECC reactor.

  14. Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process

  15. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  16. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  17. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  18. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements.

  19. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J. -J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Garcia-Pando, C. Perez; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; et al

    2016-04-21

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distributionmore » was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. In this paper, our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.« less

  20. Table 11b. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Nominal Dollars" " (nominal dollars per million Btu)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO

  1. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  2. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  3. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  4. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  5. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconne...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular ...

  6. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  7. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting behind-the-meter distributed PV generation power production within a region ... This project is expected to reduce the costs of integrating higher penetrations of PV into ...

  8. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    turbines operate closer to maximum capacity, leading to lower energy costs for consumers. ... for the Weather Research and Forecasting model, a widely used weather prediction system. ...

  9. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  10. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    electric system operators, and solar project owners better predict when and how much ... production varies, an accurate solar forecast is needed in order to maintain an ...

  11. Reaction chemistry of nitrogen species in hydrothermal systems: Simple reactions, waste simulants, and actual wastes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dell`Orco, P.; Luan, L.; Proesmans, P.; Wilmanns, E.

    1995-02-01

    Results are presented from hydrothermal reaction systems containing organic components, nitrogen components, and an oxidant. Reaction chemistry observed in simple systems and in simple waste simulants is used to develop a model which presents global nitrogen chemistry in these reactive systems. The global reaction path suggested is then compared with results obtained for the treatment of an actual waste stream containing only C-N-0-H species.

  12. Treatability studies of actual listed waste sludges from the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jantzen, C.M.; Peeler, D.K.; Gilliam, T.M.; Bleier, A.; Spence, R.D.

    1996-05-06

    Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Savannah River Technology Center (SRTC) are investigating vitrification for various low-level and mixed wastes on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). Treatability studies have included surrogate waste formulations at the laboratory-, pilot-, and field-scales and actual waste testing at the laboratory- and pilot-scales. The initial waste to be processing through SRTC`s Transportable Vitrification System (TVS) is the K-1407-B and K-1407-C (B/C) Pond sludge waste which is a RCRA F-listed waste. The B/C ponds at the ORR K-25 site were used as holding and settling ponds for various waste water treatment streams. Laboratory-, pilot-, and field- scale ``proof-of-principle`` demonstrations are providing needed operating parameters for the planned field-scale demonstration with actual B/C Pond sludge waste at ORR. This report discusses the applied systems approach to optimize glass compositions for this particular waste stream through laboratory-, pilot-, and field-scale studies with surrogate and actual B/C waste. These glass compositions will maximize glass durability and waste loading while optimizing melt properties which affect melter operation, such as melt viscosity and melter refractory corrosion. Maximum waste loadings minimize storage volume of the final waste form translating into considerable cost savings.

  13. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the systems ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  14. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Finley, Catherine; Nakafuji, Dora; Peterson, Jack L.; Maggio, David; Marquis, Melinda

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

  15. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  16. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  17. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; et al

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

  18. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  19. TESTING OF THE SPINTEK ROTARY MICROFILTER USING ACTUAL HANFORD WASTE SAMPLES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    HUBER HJ

    2010-04-13

    The SpinTek rotary microfilter was tested on actual Hanford tank waste. The samples were a composite of archived Tank 241-AN-105 material and a sample representing single-shell tanks (SST). Simulants of the two samples have been used in non-rad test runs at the 222-S laboratory and at Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). The results of these studies are compared in this report. Two different nominal pore sizes for the sintered steel rotating disk filter were chosen: 0.5 and 0.1 {micro}m. The results suggest that the 0.5-{micro}m disk is preferable for Hanford tank waste for the following reasons: (1) The filtrate clarity is within the same range (<<4 ntu for both disks); (2) The filtrate flux is in general higher for the 0.5-{micro}m disk; and (3) The 0.1-{micro}m disk showed a higher likelihood of fouling. The filtrate flux of the actual tank samples is generally in the range of 20-30% compared to the equivalent non-rad tests. The AN-105 slurries performed at about twice the filtrate flux of the SST slurries. The reason for this difference has not been identified. Particle size distributions in both cases are very similar; comparison of the chemical composition is not conclusive. The sole hint towards what material was stuck in the filter pore holes came from the analysis of the dried flakes from the surface of the fouled 0.1-{micro}m disk. A cleaning approach developed by SRNL personnel to deal with fouled disks has been found adaptable when using actual Hanford samples. The use of 1 M nitric acid improved the filtrate flux by approximately two times; using the same simulants as in the non-rad test runs showed that the filtrate flux was restored to 1/2 of its original amount.

  20. Table 3a. Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Constant Dollars" " (constant dollars per barrel in ""dollar year"" specific to each AEO)" ,"AEO $ Year",1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",1992,16.69,16.42999,16.9899,17.66,18.28,19.0599,19.89,20.72,21.65,22.61,23.51,24.29,24.9,25.6,26.3,27,27.64,28.16

  1. Method and apparatus for distinguishing actual sparse events from sparse event false alarms

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Spalding, Richard E.; Grotbeck, Carter L.

    2000-01-01

    Remote sensing method and apparatus wherein sparse optical events are distinguished from false events. "Ghost" images of actual optical phenomena are generated using an optical beam splitter and optics configured to direct split beams to a single sensor or segmented sensor. True optical signals are distinguished from false signals or noise based on whether the ghost image is presence or absent. The invention obviates the need for dual sensor systems to effect a false target detection capability, thus significantly reducing system complexity and cost.

  2. What do the DOE Zero Energy Ready Home Program Specs Actually Require?

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Alternate HVAC Systems & the Need to Use a Credentialed HVAC Contractor What do the DOE Zero Energy Ready Home Program Specs Actually Require? The DOE Zero Energy Ready Home program frequently receives inquiries about the need for qualifying projects to use an HVAC contractor who is certified by an H-QUITO 1 . The DOE Zero Energy Ready Home program incorporates all of the ENERGY STAR Homes provisions. While commissioning is important for all HVAC systems, Versions 3 and 3.1 of the ENERGY

  3. ACTUAL WASTE TESTING OF GYCOLATE IMPACTS ON THE SRS TANK FARM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martino, C.

    2014-05-28

    Glycolic acid is being studied as a replacement for formic acid in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) feed preparation process. After implementation, the recycle stream from DWPF back to the high-level waste Tank Farm will contain soluble sodium glycolate. Most of the potential impacts of glycolate in the Tank Farm were addressed via a literature review and simulant testing, but several outstanding issues remained. This report documents the actual-waste tests to determine the impacts of glycolate on storage and evaporation of Savannah River Site high-level waste. The objectives of this study are to address the following: Determine the extent to which sludge constituents (Pu, U, Fe, etc.) dissolve (the solubility of sludge constituents) in the glycolate-containing 2H-evaporator feed. Determine the impact of glycolate on the sorption of fissile (Pu, U, etc.) components onto sodium aluminosilicate solids. The first objective was accomplished through actual-waste testing using Tank 43H and 38H supernatant and Tank 51H sludge at Tank Farm storage conditions. The second objective was accomplished by contacting actual 2H-evaporator scale with the products from the testing for the first objective. There is no anticipated impact of up to 10 g/L of glycolate in DWPF recycle to the Tank Farm on tank waste component solubilities as investigated in this test. Most components were not influenced by glycolate during solubility tests, including major components such as aluminum, sodium, and most salt anions. There was potentially a slight increase in soluble iron with added glycolate, but the soluble iron concentration remained so low (on the order of 10 mg/L) as to not impact the iron to fissile ratio in sludge. Uranium and plutonium appear to have been supersaturated in 2H-evaporator feed solution mixture used for this testing. As a result, there was a reduction of soluble uranium and plutonium as a function of time. The change in soluble uranium concentration was

  4. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  5. WASTE TREATMENT PLANT (WTP) LIQUID EFFLUENT TREATABILITY EVALUATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    LUECK, K.J.

    2004-10-18

    A forecast of the radioactive, dangerous liquid effluents expected to be produced by the Waste Treatment Plant (WTP) was provided by Bechtel National, Inc. (BNI 2004). The forecast represents the liquid effluents generated from the processing of Tank Farm waste through the end-of-mission for the WTP. The WTP forecast is provided in the Appendices. The WTP liquid effluents will be stored, treated, and disposed of in the Liquid Effluent Retention Facility (LERF) and the Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF). Both facilities are located in the 200 East Area and are operated by Fluor Hanford, Inc. (FH) for the US. Department of Energy (DOE). The treatability of the WTP liquid effluents in the LERF/ETF was evaluated. The evaluation was conducted by comparing the forecast to the LERF/ETF treatability envelope (Aromi 1997), which provides information on the items which determine if a liquid effluent is acceptable for receipt and treatment at the LERF/ETF. The format of the evaluation corresponds directly to the outline of the treatability envelope document. Except where noted, the maximum annual average concentrations over the range of the 27 year forecast was evaluated against the treatability envelope. This is an acceptable approach because the volume capacity in the LERF Basin will equalize the minimum and maximum peaks. Background information on the LERF/ETF design basis is provided in the treatability envelope document.

  6. Characterization, Leaching, and Filtration Testing for Bismuth Phosphate Sludge (Group 1) and Bismuth Phosphate Saltcake (Group 2) Actual Waste Sample Composites

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lumetta, Gregg J.; Buck, Edgar C.; Daniel, Richard C.; Draper, Kathryn; Edwards, Matthew K.; Fiskum, Sandra K.; Hallen, Richard T.; Jagoda, Lynette K.; Jenson, Evan D.; Kozelisky, Anne E.; MacFarlan, Paul J.; Peterson, Reid A.; Shimskey, Rick W.; Sinkov, Sergey I.; Snow, Lanee A.

    2009-02-19

    A testing program evaluating actual tank waste was developed in response to Task 4 from the M-12 External Flowsheet Review Team (EFRT) issue response plan.() The test program was subdivided into logical increments. The bulk water-insoluble solid wastes that are anticipated to be delivered to the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) were identified according to type such that the actual waste testing could be targeted to the relevant categories. Eight broad waste groupings were defined. Samples available from the 222S archive were identified and obtained for testing. The actual waste-testing program included homogenizing the samples by group, characterizing the solids and aqueous phases, and performing parametric leaching tests. Two of the eight defined groups—bismuth phosphate sludge (Group 1) and bismuth phosphate saltcake (Group 2)—are the subjects of this report. The Group 1 waste was anticipated to be high in phosphorus and was implicitly assumed to be present as BiPO4 (however, results presented here indicate that the phosphate in Group 1 is actually present as amorphous iron(III) phosphate). The Group 2 waste was also anticipated to be high in phosphorus, but because of the relatively low bismuth content and higher aluminum content, it was anticipated that the Group 2 waste would contain a mixture of gibbsite, sodium phosphate, and aluminum phosphate. Thus, the focus of the Group 1 testing was on determining the behavior of P removal during caustic leaching, and the focus of the Group 2 testing was on the removal of both P and Al. The waste-type definition, archived sample conditions, homogenization activities, characterization (physical, chemical, radioisotope, and crystal habit), and caustic leaching behavior as functions of time, temperature, and hydroxide concentration are discussed in this report. Testing was conducted according to TP-RPP-WTP-467.

  7. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  8. PERFORMANCE TESTING OF THE NEXT-GENERATION CSSX SOLVENT WITH ACTUAL SRS TANK WASTE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pierce, R.; Peters, T.; Crowder, M.; Fink, S.

    2011-11-01

    Efforts are underway to qualify the Next-Generation Solvent for the Caustic Side Solvent Extraction (CSSX) process. Researchers at multiple national laboratories have been involved in this effort. As part of the effort to qualify the solvent extraction system at the Savannah River Site (SRS), SRNL performed a number of tests at various scales. First, SRNL completed a series of batch equilibrium, or Extraction-Scrub-Strip (ESS), tests. These tests used {approx}30 mL of Next-Generation Solvent and either actual SRS tank waste, or waste simulant solutions. The results from these cesium mass transfer tests were used to predict solvent behavior under a number of conditions. At a larger scale, SRNL assembled 12 stages of 2-cm (diameter) centrifugal contactors. This rack of contactors is structurally similar to one tested in 2001 during the demonstration of the baseline CSSX process. Assembly and mechanical testing found no issues. SRNL performed a nonradiological test using 35 L of cesium-spiked caustic waste simulant and 39 L of actual tank waste. Test results are discussed; particularly those related to the effectiveness of extraction.

  9. Wind farm production cost: Optimum turbine size and farm capacity in the actual market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Laali, A.R.; Meyer, J.L.; Bellot, C.; Louche, A.

    1996-12-31

    Several studies are undertaken in R&D Division of EDF in collaboration with ERASME association in order to have a good knowledge of the wind energy production costs. These studies are performed in the framework of a wind energy monitoring project and concern the influence of a few parameters like wind farm capacity, turbine size and wind speed on production costs, through an analysis of the actual market trend. Some 50 manufacturers and 140 different kind of wind turbines are considered for this study. The minimum production cost is situated at 800/900 kW wind turbine rated power. This point will probably move to more important powers in the future. This study is valid only for average conditions and some special parameters like particular climate conditions or lack of infrastructure for a special site the could modify the results shown on the curves. The variety of wind turbines (rated power as a function of rotor diameter, height and specific rated power) in the actual market is analyzed. A brief analysis of the market trend is also performed. 7 refs., 7 figs.

  10. State Energy Efficiency Program Evaluation Inventory

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    State Energy Efficiency Program Evaluation Inventory July 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | State Energy Efficiency Program Evaluation Inventory i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other

  11. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  12. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  13. Table 11a. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Constant Dollars" " (constant dollars per million Btu in ""dollar year"" specific to each AEO)" ,"AEO $ Year",1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",1992,1.4699,1.4799,1.53,1.57,1.58,1.57,1.61,1.63,1.68,1.69,1.7,1.72,1.7,1.76,1.79,1.81,1.88,1.92 "AEO

  14. Table 11a. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Constant Dollars (constant dollars per million Btu in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) AEO $ Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 1992 1.47 1.48 1.53 1.57 1.58 1.57 1.61 1.63 1.68 1.69 1.70 1.72 1.70 1.76 1.79 1.81 1.88 1.92 AEO 1995 1993 1.39 1.39 1.38 1.40 1.40 1.39 1.39 1.42 1.41 1.43 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.47

  15. Table 3a. Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Constant Dollars (constant dollars per barrel in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) AEO $ Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 1992 16.69 16.43 16.99 17.66 18.28 19.06 19.89 20.72 21.65 22.61 23.51 24.29 24.90 25.60 26.30 27.00 27.64 28.16 AEO 1995 1993 14.90 16.41 16.90 17.45 18.00 18.53 19.13 19.65 20.16 20.63

  16. Table 7a. Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector, Actual vs. Projected

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector, Actual vs. Projected Projected Price in Constant Dollars (constant dollars per million Btu in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) AEO $ Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 1992 2.44 2.48 2.57 2.66 2.70 2.79 2.84 2.92 3.04 3.16 3.25 3.36 3.51 3.60 3.77 3.91 3.97 4.08 AEO 1995 1993 2.39 2.48 2.42 2.45 2.45 2.53 2.59 2.78 2.91 3.10 3.24 3.38 3.47 3.53 3.61 3.68

  17. Characterization, Leaching, and Filtrations Testing of Ferrocyanide Tank sludge (Group 8) Actual Waste Composite

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fiskum, Sandra K.; Billing, Justin M.; Crum, J. V.; Daniel, Richard C.; Edwards, Matthew K.; Shimskey, Rick W.; Peterson, Reid A.; MacFarlan, Paul J.; Buck, Edgar C.; Draper, Kathryn E.; Kozelisky, Anne E.

    2009-02-28

    This is the final report in a series of eight reports defining characterization, leach, and filtration testing of a wide variety of Hanford tank waste sludges. The information generated from this series is intended to supplement the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) project understanding of actual waste behaviors associated with tank waste sludge processing through the pretreatment portion of the WTP. The work described in this report presents information on a high-iron waste form, specifically the ferrocyanide tank waste sludge. Iron hydroxide has been shown to pose technical challenges during filtration processing; the ferrocyanide tank waste sludge represented a good source of the high-iron matrix to test the filtration processing.

  18. The primary test of measuremental system for the actual emittance of relativistic electron beams

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liang Fu; Tai-bin Du; Xin Chen

    1995-12-31

    Recent, a new measuremental system has been established basically in Tsinghua University PRA. This system is able to measure the lower emittance of the electron beams from the RF accelerators for the FEL. It consists of a scanning magnetic field, a slit, a fluorescent screen, and a TV camera, an image processing system, a CAD 386 computer. Using it an actual phase diagram is obtained for 4-10 Mev electron beams, The principle and structure of the facility were reported in the Proceeding of the 15th FEL Conference. This paper describes the performance of the main components and the results of first measurement for the electron gun and 4Mev standing wave LINAC, Some new suggests are related too.

  19. An insight into actual energy use and its drivers in high-performance buildings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Cheng; Hong, Tianzhen; Yan, Da

    2014-07-12

    Using portfolio analysis and individual detailed case studies, we studied the energy performance and drivers of energy use in 51 high-performance office buildings in the U.S., Europe, China, and other parts of Asia. Portfolio analyses revealed that actual site energy use intensity (EUI) of the study buildings varied by a factor of as much as 11, indicating significant variation in real energy use in HPBs worldwide. Nearly half of the buildings did not meet the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) Standard 90.1-2004 energy target, raising questions about whether a building’s certification as high performing accurately indicates that a building is energy efficient and suggesting that improvement in the design and operation of HPBs is needed to realize their energy-saving potential. We studied the influence of climate, building size, and building technologies on building energy performance and found that although all are important, none are decisive factors in building energy use. EUIs were widely scattered in all climate zones. There was a trend toward low energy use in small buildings, but the correlation was not absolute; some small HPBs exhibited high energy use, and some large HPBs exhibited low energy use. We were unable to identify a set of efficient technologies that correlated directly to low EUIs. In two case studies, we investigated the influence of occupant behavior as well as operation and maintenance on energy performance and found that both play significant roles in realizing energy savings. We conclude that no single factor determines the actual energy performance of HPBs, and adding multiple efficient technologies does not necessarily improve building energy performance; therefore, an integrated design approach that takes account of climate, technology, occupant behavior, and operations and maintenance practices should be implemented to maximize energy savings in HPBs. As a result, these findings are

  20. An insight into actual energy use and its drivers in high-performance buildings

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Li, Cheng; Hong, Tianzhen; Yan, Da

    2014-07-12

    Using portfolio analysis and individual detailed case studies, we studied the energy performance and drivers of energy use in 51 high-performance office buildings in the U.S., Europe, China, and other parts of Asia. Portfolio analyses revealed that actual site energy use intensity (EUI) of the study buildings varied by a factor of as much as 11, indicating significant variation in real energy use in HPBs worldwide. Nearly half of the buildings did not meet the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) Standard 90.1-2004 energy target, raising questions about whether a building’s certification as high performing accuratelymore » indicates that a building is energy efficient and suggesting that improvement in the design and operation of HPBs is needed to realize their energy-saving potential. We studied the influence of climate, building size, and building technologies on building energy performance and found that although all are important, none are decisive factors in building energy use. EUIs were widely scattered in all climate zones. There was a trend toward low energy use in small buildings, but the correlation was not absolute; some small HPBs exhibited high energy use, and some large HPBs exhibited low energy use. We were unable to identify a set of efficient technologies that correlated directly to low EUIs. In two case studies, we investigated the influence of occupant behavior as well as operation and maintenance on energy performance and found that both play significant roles in realizing energy savings. We conclude that no single factor determines the actual energy performance of HPBs, and adding multiple efficient technologies does not necessarily improve building energy performance; therefore, an integrated design approach that takes account of climate, technology, occupant behavior, and operations and maintenance practices should be implemented to maximize energy savings in HPBs. As a result, these

  1. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  2. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  3. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  4. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  5. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  6. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  7. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  8. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  9. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  10. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Report forecasting the U.S. energy savings of LED white-light sources compared to conventional white-light sources (i.e., incandescent, halogen, fluorescent, and high-intensity discharge) over the...

  11. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  12. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below 3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly ...

  13. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  14. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  15. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  16. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  17. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  18. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  19. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  20. BENCH-SCALE STEAM REFORMING OF ACTUAL TANK 48H WASTE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burket, P; Gene Daniel, G; Charles Nash, C; Carol Jantzen, C; Michael Williams, M

    2008-09-25

    Fluidized Bed Steam Reforming (FBSR) has been demonstrated to be a viable technology to remove >99% of the organics from Tank 48H simulant, to remove >99% of the nitrate/nitrite from Tank 48H simulant, and to form a solid product that is primarily carbonate based. The technology was demonstrated in October of 2006 in the Engineering Scale Test Demonstration Fluidized Bed Steam Reformer1 (ESTD FBSR) at the Hazen Research Inc. (HRI) facility in Golden, CO. The purpose of the Bench-scale Steam Reformer (BSR) testing was to demonstrate that the same reactions occur and the same product is formed when steam reforming actual radioactive Tank 48H waste. The approach used in the current study was to test the BSR with the same Tank 48H simulant and same Erwin coal as was used at the ESTD FBSR under the same operating conditions. This comparison would allow verification that the same chemical reactions occur in both the BSR and ESTD FBSR. Then, actual radioactive Tank 48H material would be steam reformed in the BSR to verify that the actual tank 48H sample reacts the same way chemically as the simulant Tank 48H material. The conclusions from the BSR study and comparison to the ESTD FBSR are the following: (1) A Bench-scale Steam Reforming (BSR) unit was successfully designed and built that: (a) Emulated the chemistry of the ESTD FBSR Denitration Mineralization Reformer (DMR) and Carbon Reduction Reformer (CRR) known collectively as the dual reformer flowsheet. (b) Measured and controlled the off-gas stream. (c) Processed real (radioactive) Tank 48H waste. (d) Met the standards and specifications for radiological testing in the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) Shielded Cells Facility (SCF). (2) Three runs with radioactive Tank 48H material were performed. (3) The Tetraphenylborate (TPB) was destroyed to > 99% for all radioactive Bench-scale tests. (4) The feed nitrate/nitrite was destroyed to >99% for all radioactive BSR tests the same as the ESTD FBSR. (5) The

  1. Actual Versus Estimated Utility Factor of a Large Set of Privately Owned Chevrolet Volts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John Smart; Thomas Bradley; Stephen Schey

    2014-04-01

    In order to determine the overall fuel economy of a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), the amount of operation in charge depleting (CD) versus charge sustaining modes must be determined. Mode of operation is predominantly dependent on customer usage of the vehicle and is therefore highly variable. The utility factor (UF) concept was developed to quantify the distance a group of vehicles has traveled or may travel in CD mode. SAE J2841 presents a UF calculation method based on data collected from travel surveys of conventional vehicles. UF estimates have been used in a variety of areas, including the calculation of window sticker fuel economy, policy decisions, and vehicle design determination. The EV Project, a plug-in electric vehicle charging infrastructure demonstration being conducted across the United States, provides the opportunity to determine the real-world UF of a large group of privately owned Chevrolet Volt extended range electric vehicles. Using data collected from Volts enrolled in The EV Project, this paper compares the real-world UF of two groups of Chevrolet Volts to estimated UF's based on J2841. The actual observed fleet utility factors (FUF) for the MY2011/2012 and MY2013 Volt groups studied were observed to be 72% and 74%, respectively. Using the EPA CD ranges, the method prescribed by J2841 estimates a FUF of 65% and 68% for the MY2011/2012 and MY2013 Volt groups, respectively. Volt drivers achieved higher percentages of distance traveled in EV mode for two reasons. First, they had fewer long-distance travel days than drivers in the national travel survey referenced by J2841. Second, they charged more frequently than the J2841 assumption of once per day - drivers of Volts in this study averaged over 1.4 charging events per day. Although actual CD range varied widely as driving conditions varied, the average CD ranges for the two Volt groups studied matched the EPA CD range estimates, so CD range variation did not affect FUF results.

  2. HOW TO DEAL WITH WASTE ACCEPTANCE UNCERTAINTY USING THE WASTE ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA FORECASTING AND ANALYSIS CAPABILITY SYSTEM (WACFACS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Redus, K. S.; Hampshire, G. J.; Patterson, J. E.; Perkins, A. B.

    2002-02-25

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria Forecasting and Analysis Capability System (WACFACS) is used to plan for, evaluate, and control the supply of approximately 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous wastes from over 60 environmental restoration projects between FY02 through FY10 to the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). WACFACS is a validated decision support tool that propagates uncertainties inherent in site-related contaminant characterization data, disposition volumes during EMWMF operations, and project schedules to quantitatively determine the confidence that risk-based performance standards are met. Trade-offs in schedule, volumes of waste lots, and allowable concentrations of contaminants are performed to optimize project waste disposition, regulatory compliance, and disposal cell management.

  3. Table 11b. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Nominal Dollars (nominal dollars per million Btu) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 1.50 1.55 1.64 1.73 1.78 1.82 1.92 2.01 2.13 2.22 2.30 2.41 2.46 2.64 2.78 2.90 3.12 3.30 AEO 1995 1.42 1.46 1.49 1.55 1.59 1.62 1.67 1.76 1.80 1.89 1.97 2.05 2.13 2.21 2.28 2.38 2.50 AEO 1996 1.35 1.35 1.37 1.39 1.42 1.46 1.50 1.56 1.62 1.67 1.75

  4. Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Trends, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Trends, Projected vs. Actual Projected Real GDP Growth Trend (cumulative average percent growth in projected real GDP from first year shown for each AEO) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 3.09 3.15 2.86 2.78 2.73 2.65 2.62 2.60 2.56 2.53 2.52 2.49 2.45 2.41 2.40 2.36 2.32 2.29 AEO 1995 3.66 2.77 2.53 2.71 2.67 2.61 2.55 2.48 2.46 2.45 2.45 2.43 2.39 2.35 2.31 2.27 2.24 AEO 1996 2.61

  5. Table 7b. Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector, Actual vs. Projected

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector, Actual vs. Projected Projected Price in Nominal Dollars (nominal dollars per million Btu) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 2.49 2.60 2.76 2.93 3.05 3.24 3.39 3.60 3.86 4.15 4.40 4.70 5.08 5.39 5.85 6.27 6.59 7.01 AEO 1995 2.44 2.61 2.61 2.70 2.78 2.95 3.11 3.44 3.72 4.10 4.43 4.78 5.07 5.33 5.64 5.95 6.23 AEO 1996 2.08 2.19 2.20 2.39 2.47 2.54 2.64 2.74 2.84 2.95 3.09

  6. FRACTIONAL CRYSTALLIZATION LABORATORY TESTING FOR INCLUSION & COPRECIPITATION WITH ACTUAL TANK WASTE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    WARRANT, R.W.

    2006-12-11

    Fractional crystallization is being considered as a pretreatment method to support supplemental treatment of retrieved single-shell tank (SST) saltcake waste at the Hanford Site. The goal of the fractional crystallization process is to optimize the separation of the radioactivity (radionuclides) from the saltcake waste and send it to the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant and send the bulk of the saltcake to the supplemental treatment plant (bulk vitrification). The primary factors that influence the separation efficiency are (1) solid/liquid separation efficiency, (2) contaminant inclusions, and (3) co-precipitation. This is a report of testing for factors (2) and (3) with actual tank waste samples. For the purposes of this report, contaminant inclusions are defined as the inclusion of supernatant, containing contaminating radionuclides, in a pocket within the precipitating saltcake crystals. Co-precipitation is defined as the simultaneous precipitation of a saltcake crystal with a contaminating radionuclide. These two factors were tested for various potential fractional crystallization product salts by spiking the composite tank waste samples (SST Early or SST Late, external letter CH2M-0600248, ''Preparation of Composite Tank Waste Samples for ME-21 Project'') with the desired target salt and then evaporating to precipitate that salt. SST Early represents the typical composition of dissolved saltcake early in the retrieval process, and SST Late represents the typical composition during the later stages of retrieval.

  7. Relationship between self-reported activity levels and actual heart rates in teenagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Terblanche, A.P.S.; Ozkaynak, H.; Spengler, J.D.; Butler, D.A. )

    1991-08-01

    A study was designed to explore the relationship between self-reported activity levels and actual heart rate (HR) as measured by a portable heart rate monitor. Twenty-two teenagers (8 boys, 14 girls, median age of 16) from Watertown High School, Massachusetts participated in this pilot study which involved continuous monitoring of HR during normal daily activities and simultaneous completion of a time-activity diary. There were 31 successful monitoring sessions ranging from 1.9 to 17 hours with a median monitoring time of 12.6 hours. Four unsuccessful monitoring sessions were experienced due to equipment failure. Apart from participant cooperation, the single most important factor affecting the feasibility of continuous heart rate monitoring was found to be equipment design. Th overall average heart rate observed was 88.4 bpm (SD = 24.3). An individual's correlation coefficient for perceived activity level (documented in half-hour intervals) and heart rate (averaged over the half-hour intervals) varied from 0.24 to 0.89. More than half of the correlation coefficients were below 0.40. There was a significant difference between average heart rate for time spent indoors (90 bpm) versus outdoors (103 bpm) even after correcting for sleeping time. It is concluded that continuous HR monitoring with simultaneous completion of a time/activity dairy is feasible and is a promising source of information for studies on exposure to air pollutants.

  8. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and

  9. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  10. STEAM REFORMING TECHNOLOGY DEMONSTRATION FOR THE DESTRUCTION OF ORGANICS ON ACTUAL DOE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE TANK 48H WASTE 9138

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burket, P

    2009-02-24

    This paper describes the design of the Bench-scale Steam Reformer (BSR); a processing unit for demonstrating steam reforming technology on actual radioactive waste [1]. It describes the operating conditions of the unit used for processing a sample of Savannah River Site (SRS) Tank 48H waste. Finally, it compares the results from processing the actual waste in the BSR to processing simulant waste in the BSR to processing simulant waste in a large pilot scale unit, the Fluidized Bed Steam Reformer (FBSR), operated at Hazen Research Inc. in Golden, CO. The purpose of this work was to prove that the actual waste reacted in the same manner as the simulant waste in order to validate the work performed in the pilot scale unit which could only use simulant waste.

  11. Evaluation of the St. Lucia geothermal resource: macroeconomic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burris, A.E.; Trocki, L.K.; Yeamans, M.K.; Kolstad, C.D.

    1984-08-01

    A macroeconometric model describing the St. Lucian economy was developed using 1970 to 1982 economic data. Results of macroeconometric forecasts for the period 1983 through 1985 show an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) for 1983 and 1984 with a decline in 1985. The rate of population growth is expected to exceed GDP growth so that a small decline in per capita GDP will occur. We forecast that garment exports will increase, providing needed employment and foreign exchange. To obtain a longer-term but more general outlook on St. Lucia's economy, and to evaluate the benefit of geothermal energy development, we applied a nonlinear programming model. The model maximizes discounted cumulative consumption.

  12. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  13. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zulkepli, Jafri Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

    2015-12-11

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

  14. Enhancing Cloud Radiative Processes and Radiation Efficiency in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iacono, Michael J.

    2015-03-09

    The objective of this research has been to evaluate and implement enhancements to the computational performance of the RRTMG radiative transfer option in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Efficiency is as essential as accuracy for effective numerical weather prediction, and radiative transfer is a relatively time-consuming component of dynamical models, taking up to 30-50 percent of the total model simulation time. To address this concern, this research has implemented and tested a version of RRTMG that utilizes graphics processing unit (GPU) technology (hereinafter RRTMGPU) to greatly improve its computational performance; thereby permitting either more frequent simulation of radiative effects or other model enhancements. During the early stages of this project the development of RRTMGPU was completed at AER under separate NASA funding to accelerate the code for use in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Goddard Earth Observing System GEOS-5 global model. It should be noted that this final report describes results related to the funded portion of the originally proposed work concerning the acceleration of RRTMG with GPUs in WRF. As a k-distribution model, RRTMG is especially well suited to this modification due to its relatively large internal pseudo-spectral (g-point) dimension that, when combined with the horizontal grid vector in the dynamical model, can take great advantage of the GPU capability. Thorough testing under several model configurations has been performed to ensure that RRTMGPU improves WRF model run time while having no significant impact on calculated radiative fluxes and heating rates or on dynamical model fields relative to the RRTMG radiation. The RRTMGPU codes have been provided to NCAR for possible application to the next public release of the WRF forecast model.

  15. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  16. Regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a quasi-operational forecasting environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zupanski, M. )

    1993-08-01

    Four-dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to a regional forecast model as part of the development of a new data assimilation system at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The assimilation employs an operational version of the NMC's new regional forecast model defined in eta vertical coordinates, and data used are operationally produced optimal interpolation (OI) analyses (using the first guess from the NMC's global spectral model), available every 3 h. Humidity and parameterized processes are not included in the adjoint model integration. The calculation of gradients by the adjoint model is approximate since the forecast model is used in its full-physics operational form. All experiments are over a 12-h assimilation period with subsequent 48-h forecast. Three different types of assimilation experiments are performed: (a) adjustment of initial conditions only (standard [open quotes]adjoint[close quotes] approach), (b) adjustment of a correction to the model equations only (variational continuous assimilation), and (c) simultaneous or sequential adjustment of both initial conditions and the correction term. Results indicate significantly better results when the correction term is included in the assimilation. It is shown, for a single case, that the new technique [experiment (c)] is able to produce a forecast better than the current conventional OI assimilation. It is very important to note that these results are obtained with an approximate gradient, calculated from a simplified adjoint model. Thus, it may be possible to perform an operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation of realistic forecast models, even before more complex adjoint models are developed. Also, the results suggest that it may be possible to reduce the large computational cost of assimilation by using only a few iterations of the minimization algorithm. This fast convergence is encouraging from the prospective of operational use. 37 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  17. ARM - Field Campaign - 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaigns915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2011.05.31 - 2012.05.31 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of the installation of a 37 MW solar array on the grounds of Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), a study

  18. ARM - Field Campaign - Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaignsRadar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2013.07.15 - 2015.08.06 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of recent activities funded by the DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) to produce short-term

  19. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  20. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  1. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year Rising crude oil prices are likely to be passed on to consumers at the pump, but U.S. drivers are still expected to pay the lowest summer gasoline prices since 2004, and for all of 2016 the average household will spend $900 less on gasoline than it did two years ago." In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average

  2. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  3. State Energy Efficiency Program Evaluation Inventory - Energy Information

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    State Energy Efficiency Program Evaluation Inventory July 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | State Energy Efficiency Program Evaluation Inventory i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other

  4. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  5. Ion exchange removal of cesium from simulated and actual supernate from Hanford tanks 241-SY-101 and 241-SY-103

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, G.N.; Bontha, J.R.; Carlson, C.D.

    1995-09-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), in conjunction with the Process Chemistry and Statistics Section of Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC), conducted this study as part of the Supernatant Treatment Development Task for the Initial Pretreatment Module (IPM) Applied Engineering Project. The study assesses the performance of the CS-100 ion exchange material for removing cesium from simulated and actual alkaline supernate from Hanford tanks 241-SY-101 and 241-SY-103. The objective of these experiments is to compare the cesium ion exchange loading and elution profiles of actual and simulated wastes. Specific experimental objectives include (1) demonstration of decontamination factors (DF) for cesium removal, 92) verification of simulant performance, (3) investigation of waste/exchanger chemistry, and (4) determination of the radionuclide content of the regenerated CS-100 resin prior to disposal.

  6. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  7. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are

  8. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

    2010-02-21

    The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to

  9. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  10. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  11. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below

  12. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  13. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO

  14. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we

  15. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  16. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  17. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  18. Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Intharathirat, Rotchana; Abdul Salam, P.; Kumar, S.; Untong, Akarapong

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.

  19. Technique of estimation of actual strength of a gas pipeline section at its deformation in landslide action zone

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tcherni, V.P.

    1996-12-31

    The technique is given which permits determination of stress and strain state (SSS) and estimation of actual strength of a section of a buried main gas pipeline (GP) in the case of its deformation in a landslide action zone. The technique is based on the use of three-dimensional coordinates of axial points of the deformed GP section. These coordinates are received by a full-scale survey. The deformed axis of the surveyed GP section is described by the polynomial. The unknown coefficients of the polynomial can be determined from the boundary conditions at points of connection with contiguous undeformed sections as well as by use of minimization methods in mathematical processing of full-scale survey results. The resulting form of GP section`s axis allows one to determine curvatures and, accordingly, bending moments along all the length of the considered section. The influence of soil resistance to longitudinal displacements of a pipeline is used to determine longitudinal forces. Resulting values of bending moments and axial forces as well as the known value of internal pressure are used to analyze all necessary components of an actual SSS of pipeline section and to estimate its strength by elastic analysis.

  20. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  1. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  2. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  3. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  4. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  5. A Fresh Look at Weather Impact on Peak Electricity Demand and Energy Use of Buildings Using 30-Year Actual Weather Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hong, Tianzhen; Chang, Wen-Kuei; Lin, Hung-Wen

    2013-05-01

    Buildings consume more than one third of the world?s total primary energy. Weather plays a unique and significant role as it directly affects the thermal loads and thus energy performance of buildings. The traditional simulated energy performance using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather data represents the building performance for a typical year, but not necessarily the average or typical long-term performance as buildings with different energy systems and designs respond differently to weather changes. Furthermore, the single-year TMY simulations do not provide a range of results that capture yearly variations due to changing weather, which is important for building energy management, and for performing risk assessments of energy efficiency investments. This paper employs large-scale building simulation (a total of 3162 runs) to study the weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use with the 30-year (1980 to 2009) Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather data for three types of office buildings at two design efficiency levels, across all 17 ASHRAE climate zones. The simulated results using the AMY data are compared to those from the TMY3 data to determine and analyze the differences. Besides further demonstration, as done by other studies, that actual weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings, the main findings from the current study include: 1) annual weather variation has a greater impact on the peak electricity demand than it does on energy use in buildings; 2) the simulated energy use using the TMY3 weather data is not necessarily representative of the average energy use over a long period, and the TMY3 results can be significantly higher or lower than those from the AMY data; 3) the weather impact is greater for buildings in colder climates than warmer climates; 4) the weather impact on the medium-sized office building was the greatest, followed by the large office and then the small

  6. Testing and evaluation of light ablation decontamination

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Demmer, R.L.; Ferguson, R.L.

    1994-10-01

    This report details the testing and evaluation of light ablation decontamination. It details WINCO contracted research and application of light ablation efforts by Ames Laboratory. Tests were conducted with SIMCON (simulated contamination) coupons and REALCON (actual radioactive metal coupons) under controlled conditions to compare cleaning effectiveness, speed and application to plant process type equipment.

  7. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on

  8. Evaluation of the Mesoscale Eta Model over the western United States. Master`s thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Swanson, R.T.

    1995-09-10

    The skill of the Mesoscale Eta Model is evaluated over a 6-month period from October 1, 1994 to March 31, 1995 over the western United States. This model will continue to undergo changes until and after its projected operational release in July 1995. Many diagnostics and error statistics are created to evaluate its performance as forecasts are received and archived at the University of Utah. These statistics are available on the Internet allowing researchers and operational forecasters access to them in near real-time. The Mesoscale Eta Model forecast initialized at 1200 UTC, 9 November 1994 is used as a case study to introduce many of the diagnostics developed to evaluate the model. A systematic evaluation of the average and root-mean-squared error over months and seasons reveals little significant bias in upper tropospheric fields such as 300 mb wind or 500 mb geopotential height. Moderate average errors are evident in lower tropospheric temperature. Accumulated precipitation over months and seasons indicates the model`s spinup of precipitation during the first 12 hours of the forecast cycle.

  9. Making appropriate comparisons of estimated and actual costs of reducing SO{sub 2} emissions under Title IV

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, A.E.

    1998-12-31

    A current sentiment within some parts of the environmental policy community is that market-based regulatory approaches such as emissions trading have proven so effective that actual costs will be only a small fraction of what ex ante cost estimation procedures would project. With this line of reasoning, some have dismissed available cost estimates for major proposed new regulations, such as the new PM and ozone NAAQS, as not meaningful for policy decisions. The most commonly used evidence in support of this position is the experience with SO{sub 2} reductions under Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. In Title IV, a market for emissions allowances has been used to achieve reductions in sulfur dioxides (SO{sub 2}) to ameliorate acid rain. It is commonly asserted today that the cost of achieving the SO{sub 2} emissions reductions has been only one-tenth or less of what Title IV was originally expected to cost. This paper demonstrates that, to the contrary, actual costs for SO{sub 2} reductions remain roughly in line with original estimates associated with Title IV. Erroneous conclusions about Title IV`s costs are due to inappropriate comparisons of a variety of different measures that appear to be comparable only because they are all stated in dollars per ton. Program cost estimates include the total costs of a fully-implemented regulatory program. The very low costs of Title IV that are commonly cited today are neither directly reflective of a fully implemented Title IV, (which is still many years away) nor reflective of all the costs already incurred. Further, a careful review of history finds that the initial cost estimates that many cite were never associated with Title IV. Technically speaking, people are comparing the estimated control costs for the most-costly power plant associated with earlier acid rain regulatory proposals with prices from a market that do not directly reflect total costs.

  10. Evaluation of the Impact of EISA Federal Project Investments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Judd, Kathleen S.; Wendel, Emily M.; Morris, Scott L.; Williamson, Jennifer L.; Halverson, Mark A.; Livingston, Olga V.; Loper, Susan A.

    2012-12-31

    The DOE's Federal Energy Management Program has been charged by Office of Management and Budget to conduct an evaluation on actual and verifiable energy savings and carbon emissions reductions from federal energy management investments made across the Federal government as a result of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. This study presents the findings from that evaluation.

  11. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  12. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  13. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  14. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to

  15. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  16. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  17. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    7a. Space Heating by Census Region and Climate Zone, Million U.S. Households, 1993 Space Heating Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Census Region Climate Zone RSE Row Factors Northeast Midwest South West Fewer than 2,000 CDD and -- More than 2,000 CDD and Few- er than 4,000 HDD More than 7,000 HDD 5,500 to 7,000 HDD 4,000 to 5,499 HDD Few- er than 4,000 HDD 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Total ................................................. 96.6 19.5 23.3 33.5 20.4 8.7 26.5

  18. National Evaluation of the State Energy Program: An Evaluation...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... The Regional Economic Models, Inc (REMI) economic forecasting model used for this study is ... When energy efficiency or renewable generation programs reduce costs to energy consumers, ...

  19. Meanwhile, much attention will focus on model evaluation results at Frenchman Fl

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Meanwhile, much attention will focus on model evaluation results at Frenchman Flat. "We are optimistic the results will be reasonably consistent with our model forecasts," explained Wilborn. "If model evaluation results are approved by the State of Nevada, we can move toward closure and long-term monitoring - the final stage in our strategy." All components of the Nevada Site Office groundwater program will be discussed at an upcoming Groundwater Open House on September 18,

  20. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  1. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  2. Developing an industrial end-use forecast: A case study at the Los Angeles department of water and power

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mureau, T.H.; Francis, D.M.

    1995-05-01

    The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) uses INFORM 1.0 to forecast industrial sector energy. INFORM 1.0 provides an end-use framework that can be used to forecast electricity, natural gas or other fuels consumption. Included with INFORM 1.0 is a default date set including the input data and equations necessary to solve each model. LADWP has substituted service area specific data for the default data wherever possible. This paper briefly describes the steps LADWP follows in developing those inputs and application in INFORM 1.0.

  3. ,"Table 1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Assessment Area,"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Assessment Area," ,"1990-2010 Actual, 2011-2015 Projected" ,"(Thousands of Megawatthours)" ,"Interconnection","NERC Regional Assesment Area" ,,,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,"2011E","2012E","2013E","2014E","2015E" ,"Eastern

  4. ACTUAL-WASTE TESTS OF ENHANCED CHEMICAL CLEANING FOR RETRIEVAL OF SRS HLW SLUDGE TANK HEELS AND DECOMPOSITION OF OXALIC ACID

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martino, C.; King, W.; Ketusky, E.

    2012-01-12

    Savannah River National Laboratory conducted a series of tests on the Enhanced Chemical Cleaning (ECC) process using actual Savannah River Site waste material from Tanks 5F and 12H. Testing involved sludge dissolution with 2 wt% oxalic acid, the decomposition of the oxalates by ozonolysis (with and without the aid of ultraviolet light), the evaporation of water from the product, and tracking the concentrations of key components throughout the process. During ECC actual waste testing, the process was successful in decomposing oxalate to below the target levels without causing substantial physical or chemical changes in the product sludge.

  5. USE OF AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL TO FORECAST DISSOLUTION EFFECTIVENESS, SAFETY IMPACTS, AND DOWNSTREAM PROCESSABILITY FROM OXALIC ACID AIDED SLUDGE REMOVAL IN SAVANNAH RIVER SITE HIGH LEVEL WASTE TANKS 1-15

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KETUSKY, EDWARD

    2005-10-31

    This thesis details a graduate research effort written to fulfill the Magister of Technologiae in Chemical Engineering requirements at the University of South Africa. The research evaluates the ability of equilibrium based software to forecast dissolution, evaluate safety impacts, and determine downstream processability changes associated with using oxalic acid solutions to dissolve sludge heels in Savannah River Site High Level Waste (HLW) Tanks 1-15. First, a dissolution model is constructed and validated. Coupled with a model, a material balance determines the fate of hypothetical worst-case sludge in the treatment and neutralization tanks during each chemical adjustment. Although sludge is dissolved, after neutralization more is created within HLW. An energy balance determines overpressurization and overheating to be unlikely. Corrosion induced hydrogen may overwhelm the purge ventilation. Limiting the heel volume treated/acid added and processing the solids through vitrification is preferred and should not significantly increase the number of glass canisters.

  6. Machine Learning Based Multi-Physical-Model Blending for Enhancing Renewable Energy Forecast -- Improvement via Situation Dependent Error Correction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lu, Siyuan; Hwang, Youngdeok; Khabibrakhmanov, Ildar; Marianno, Fernando J.; Shao, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Hamann, Hendrik F.

    2015-07-15

    With increasing penetration of solar and wind energy to the total energy supply mix, the pressing need for accurate energy forecasting has become well-recognized. Here we report the development of a machine-learning based model blending approach for statistically combining multiple meteorological models for improving the accuracy of solar/wind power forecast. Importantly, we demonstrate that in addition to parameters to be predicted (such as solar irradiance and power), including additional atmospheric state parameters which collectively define weather situations as machine learning input provides further enhanced accuracy for the blended result. Functional analysis of variance shows that the error of individual model has substantial dependence on the weather situation. The machine-learning approach effectively reduces such situation dependent error thus produces more accurate results compared to conventional multi-model ensemble approaches based on simplistic equally or unequally weighted model averaging. Validation over an extended period of time results show over 30% improvement in solar irradiance/power forecast accuracy compared to forecasts based on the best individual model.

  7. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  8. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  9. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  10. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  11. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-09-22

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the 'Microbase' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  12. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the “Mergedsounding” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  13. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB Veteran-Owned SB Service Disabled Vet. SB FY 2009 Dollars Goal (projected) $183,949,920 $82,690,000 $4,550,000 $8,829,596 $3,370,000 $5,025,000 $460,000 FY 2009 Dollars Accomplished $143,846,731 $68,174,398 $9,247,214 $11,333,905 $4,979,858 $6,713,791 $1,612,136 FY 2009 % Goal 45.0% 2.5% 4.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.25% FY

  14. Electric-utility DSM programs: 1990 data and forecasts to 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hirst, E.

    1992-06-01

    In April 1992, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data on 1989 and 1990 electric-utility demand-site management (DMS) programs. These data represent a census of US utility DSM programs, with reports of utility expenditures, energy savings, and load reductions caused by these programs. In addition, EIA published utility estimates of the costs and effects of these programs from 1991 to 2000. These data provide the first comprehensive picture of what utilities are spending and accomplishing by utility, state, and region. This report presents, summarizes, and interprets the 1990 data and the utility forecasts of their DSM-program expenditures and impacts to the year 2000. Only utilities with annual sales greater than 120 GWh were required to report data on their DSM programs to EIA. Of the 1194 such utilities, 363 reported having a DSM program that year. These 363 electric utilities spent $1.2 billion on their DSM programs in 1990, up from $0.9 billion in 1989. Estimates of energy savings (17,100 GWh in 1990 and 14,800 GWh in 1989) and potential reductions in peak demand (24,400 MW in 1990 and about 19,400 MW in 1989) also showed substantial increases. Overall, utility DSM expenditures accounted for 0.7% of total US electric revenues, while the reductions in energy and demand accounted for 0.6% and 4.9% of their respective 1990 national totals. The investor-owned utilities accounted for 70 to 90% of the totals for DSM costs, energy savings, and demand reductions. The public utilities reported larger percentage reductions in peak demand and energy smaller percentage DSM expenditures. These averages hide tremendous variations across utilities. Utility forecasts of DSM expenditures and effects show substantial growth in both absolute and relative terms.

  15. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  16. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  17. Hawaii Energy Strategy: Program guide. [Contains special sections on analytical energy forecasting, renewable energy resource assessment, demand-side energy management, energy vulnerability assessment, and energy strategy integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-09-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy program, or HES, is a set of seven projects which will produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. It will include a comprehensive energy vulnerability assessment with recommended courses of action to decrease Hawaii's energy vulnerability and to better prepare for an effective response to any energy emergency or supply disruption. The seven projects are designed to increase understanding of Hawaii's energy situation and to produce recommendations to achieve the State energy objectives of: Dependable, efficient, and economical state-wide energy systems capable of supporting the needs of the people, and increased energy self-sufficiency. The seven projects under the Hawaii Energy Strategy program include: Project 1: Develop Analytical Energy Forecasting Model for the State of Hawaii. Project 2: Fossil Energy Review and Analysis. Project 3: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Development Program. Project 4: Demand-Side Management Program. Project 5: Transportation Energy Strategy. Project 6: Energy Vulnerability Assessment Report and Contingency Planning. Project 7: Energy Strategy Integration and Evaluation System.

  18. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and

  19. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and

  20. Nondestructive evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martz, H.E.

    1997-02-01

    Research reported in the thrust area of nondestructive evaluation includes: advanced 3-D imaging technologies; new techniques in laser ultrasonic testing; infrared computed tomography for thermal NDE of materials, structures, sources, and processes; automated defect detection for large laser optics; multistatic micropower impulse radar imaging for nondestructive evaluation; and multi-modal NDE for AVLIS pod shielding components.

  1. ,"Table 3a. January Monthly Peak Hour Demand, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Council Region, "

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    3a. January Monthly Peak Hour Demand, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Council Region, " ,"2005 and Projected 2006 through 2010 " ,"(Megawatts and 2005 Base Year)" ,"Projected Monthly Base","Year","Contiguous U.S.","Eastern Power Grid",,,,,,"Texas Power Grid","Western Power Grid"

  2. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills June 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by

  3. Demand forecasting and revenue requirements, with implications for consideration in British Columbia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acton, J.P.

    1983-05-01

    This paper was filed as an exhibit on behalf of The Consumers' Association of Canada (B.C. Branch), The Federated Anti-Poverty Groups of B.C., The Sierra Club of Western Canada, and the B.C. Old Age Pensioners' Organization. It was subjected to cross-examination on October 29, 1982, during Phase I of the hearings. The Utilities Commission had designated Phase I for consideration of (1) demand, (2) assets in service, (3) revenue requirements excluding return, and (4) financing and capital requirements. This paper presents a general discussion of the elements of a rate structure and their relationship to the demand for electricity, a systematic review of some 50 empirical studies of the demand for electricity as a function of price and other factors by the three principal classes of customers, and a discussion of the notion of revenue requirements. The paper should be of interest to utility regulators, rate specialists, and forecasters for its review of demand models and to academics concerned with the study of energy demand.

  4. Forecasting the oil-gasoline price relationship: should we care about the Rockets and the Feathers?

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,153 3,253 3.2% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.98 0.2% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $422 3.3% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,993 2,051 2.9% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.36 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $372 $377 1.3% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,372 2,431 2.5% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  5. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  6. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  7. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  8. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  9. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  10. TESTING OF ENHANCED CHEMICAL CLEANING OF SRS ACTUAL WASTE TANK 5F AND TANK 12H SLUDGES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martino, C.; King, W.

    2011-08-22

    Forty three of the High Level Waste (HLW) tanks at the Savannah River Site (SRS) have internal structures that hinder removal of the last approximately five thousand gallons of waste sludge solely by mechanical means. Chemical cleaning can be utilized to dissolve the sludge heel with oxalic acid (OA) and pump the material to a separate waste tank in preparation for final disposition. This dissolved sludge material is pH adjusted downstream of the dissolution process, precipitating the sludge components along with sodium oxalate solids. The large quantities of sodium oxalate and other metal oxalates formed impact downstream processes by requiring additional washing during sludge batch preparation and increase the amount of material that must be processed in the tank farm evaporator systems and the Saltstone Processing Facility. Enhanced Chemical Cleaning (ECC) was identified as a potential method for greatly reducing the impact of oxalate additions to the SRS Tank Farms without adding additional components to the waste that would extend processing or increase waste form volumes. In support of Savannah River Site (SRS) tank closure efforts, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) conducted Real Waste Testing (RWT) to evaluate an alternative to the baseline 8 wt. % OA chemical cleaning technology for tank sludge heel removal. The baseline OA technology results in the addition of significant volumes of oxalate salts to the SRS tank farm and there is insufficient space to accommodate the neutralized streams resulting from the treatment of the multiple remaining waste tanks requiring closure. ECC is a promising alternative to bulk OA cleaning, which utilizes a more dilute OA (nominally 2 wt. % at a pH of around 2) and an oxalate destruction technology. The technology is being adapted by AREVA from their decontamination technology for Nuclear Power Plant secondary side scale removal. This report contains results from the SRNL small scale testing of the ECC process

  11. Recent program evaluations: Implications for long-run planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baxter, L.W.; Schultz, D.K.

    1994-06-08

    Demand-side management (DSM) remains the centerpiece of California`s energy policy. Over the coming decade, California plans to meet 30 percent of the state`s incremental electricity demand and 50 percent of its peak demand with (DSM) programs. The major investor-owned utilities in California recently completed the first round of program impact studies for energy efficiency programs implemented in 1990 and 1991. The central focus of this paper is to assess the resource planning and policy implications of Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) Company`s recent program evaluations. The paper has three goals. First, we identify and discuss major issues that surfaced from our attempt to apply evaluation results to forecasting and planning questions. Second, we review and summarize the evaluation results for PG&E`s primary energy efficiency programs. Third, we change long-run program assumptions, based on our assessment in the second task, and then examine the impacts of these changes on a recent PG&E demand-side management forecast and resource plan.

  12. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  13. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dyson, Brian; Chang, N.-B. . E-mail: nchang@even.tamuk.edu

    2005-07-01

    Both planning and design of municipal solid waste management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation. Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with regard to the generation trends facing many fast-growing regions is quite challenging. The lack of complete historical records of solid waste quantity and quality due to insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity has resulted in a situation that makes the long-term system planning and/or short-term expansion programs intangible. To effectively handle these problems based on limited data samples, a new analytical approach capable of addressing socioeconomic and environmental situations must be developed and applied for fulfilling the prediction analysis of solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy. This study presents a new approach - system dynamics modeling - for the prediction of solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban area based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact on sustainable development city wide, the practical implementation was assessed by a case study in the city of San Antonio, Texas (USA). This area is becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in North America due to the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The analysis presents various trends of solid waste generation associated with five different solid waste generation models using a system dynamics simulation tool - Stella[reg]. Research findings clearly indicate that such a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties down when traditional statistical least-squares regression methods are unable to handle such issues.

  14. ,"Table 3a. January Monthly Peak Hour Demand, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, "

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    6" ,"Released: February 7, 2008" ,"Next Update: October 2008" ,"Table 3a. January Monthly Peak Hour Demand, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2006 and Projected 2007 through 2011 " ,"(Megawatts and 2006 Base Year)" ,"Projected Monthly Base","Year","Contiguous U.S.","Eastern Power Grid",,,,,,"Texas Power Grid","Western Power Grid"

  15. ARM Data Used to Evaluate Reanalysis Results

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    models (Xie et al. 2004; Kennedy et al. 2011), investigating extreme weather and climatic events (Dong et al. 2011 and 2014), and examining forecast skill. These...

  16. American Evaluation Association Guiding Principles for Evaluators...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Five principles developed by American Evaluation Associ intended to guide professional practice of evaluators & to inform evaluation clients and the general public about principles ...

  17. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  18. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  19. Energy Evaluation of a New Construction Pilot Community: Fresno, California

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burdick, A.; Poerschke, A.; Rapport, A.; Wayne, M.

    2014-06-01

    A new construction pilot community was constructed by builder-partner Wathen-Castanos Hybrid Homes (WCHH) based on a single occupied test house that was designed to achieve greater than 30% energy savings with respect to the House Simulation Protocols (Hendron, Robert; Engebrecht, Cheryn (2010). Building America House Simulation Protocols. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory). Builders face several key problems when implementing a whole-house systems integrated measures package (SIMP) from a single test house into multiple houses. Although a technical solution already may have been evaluated and validated in an individual test house, the potential exists for constructability failures at the community scale. This report addresses factors of implementation and scalability at the community scale and proposes methodologies by which community-scale energy evaluations can be performed based on results at the occupied test house level. Research focused on the builder and trade implementation of a SIMP and the actual utility usage in the houses at the community scale of production. Five occupants participated in this community-scale research by providing utility bills and information on occupancy and miscellaneous gas and electric appliance use for their houses. IBACOS used these utility data and background information to analyze the actual energy performance of the houses. Verification with measured data is an important component in predictive energy modeling. The actual utility bill readings were compared to projected energy consumption using BEopt with actual weather and thermostat set points for normalization.

  20. Energy consumption and expenditure projections by population group on the basis of the annual energy outlook 1999 forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poyer, D.A.; Balsley, J.H.

    2000-01-07

    This report presents an analysis of the relative impact of the base-case scenario used in Annual Energy Outlook 1999 on different population groups. Projections of energy consumption and expenditures, as well as energy expenditure as a share of income, from 1996 to 2020 are given. The projected consumption of electricty, natural gas, distillate fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas during this period is also reported for each population group. In addition, this report compares the findings of the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 report with the 1998 report. Changes in certain indicators and information affect energy use forecasts, and these effects are analyzed and discussed.

  1. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer at $3.94 a gallon

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer at $3.94 a gallon The retail price of diesel fuel is expected to average $3.94 a gallon during the summer driving season that which runs from April through September. That's close to last summer's pump price of $3.95, according to the latest monthly energy outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Demand for distillate fuel, which includes diesel fuel, is expected to be up less than 1 percent from last summer. Daily

  2. Summary of California DSM impact evaluation studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, M.A.; Mihlmester, P.E.

    1994-10-01

    Over the past several years, four of the largest investor-owned California utilities have completed more than 50 evaluation studies designed to measure the energy and demand impacts of their demand-side management (DSM) programs. These four are: Pacific Gas and Electric (PG and E), Southern California Edison (SCE), Southern California Gas (SoCalGas), and San diego Gas and Electric (SDG and E). These studies covered residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural DSM programs and provided a wealth of information on program impacts. The objective of this report is to summarize the results of these DSM evaluation studies in order to describe what DSM has achieved in California, to assess how well these achievements were forecast, and to compare the effectiveness of different types of DSM programs. This report documents the sizable investment made by the California utilities in their 1990--92 DSM programs. Between 1990 and 1992, the four utilities spent $772 million on energy-efficiency/conservation programs. This report also summarizes the realization rates estimated by the 50+ evaluation studies. Realization rates are defined as ex-post net savings estimates divided by ex-ante net savings estimates. Realization rates are summarized for 158 programs and program segments.

  3. American Evaluation Association Guiding Principles for Evaluators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2009-01-18

    Five principles developed by American Evaluation Associ intended to guide professional practice of evaluators & to inform evaluation clients and the general public about principles they can expect to be upheld by professional evaluators.

  4. DESTRUCTION OF TETRAPHENYLBORATE IN TANK 48H USING WET AIR OXIDATION BATCH BENCH SCALE AUTOCLAVE TESTING WITH ACTUAL RADIOACTIVE TANK 48H WASTE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Adu-Wusu, K; Paul Burket, P

    2009-03-31

    Wet Air Oxidation (WAO) is one of the two technologies being considered for the destruction of Tetraphenylborate (TPB) in Tank 48H. Batch bench-scale autoclave testing with radioactive (actual) Tank 48H waste is among the tests required in the WAO Technology Maturation Plan. The goal of the autoclave testing is to validate that the simulant being used for extensive WAO vendor testing adequately represents the Tank 48H waste. The test objective was to demonstrate comparable test results when running simulated waste and real waste under similar test conditions. Specifically: (1) Confirm the TPB destruction efficiency and rate (same reaction times) obtained from comparable simulant tests, (2) Determine the destruction efficiency of other organics including biphenyl, (3) Identify and quantify the reaction byproducts, and (4) Determine off-gas composition. Batch bench-scale stirred autoclave tests were conducted with simulated and actual Tank 48H wastes at SRNL. Experimental conditions were chosen based on continuous-flow pilot-scale simulant testing performed at Siemens Water Technologies Corporation (SWT) in Rothschild, Wisconsin. The following items were demonstrated as a result of this testing. (1) Tetraphenylborate was destroyed to below detection limits during the 1-hour reaction time at 280 C. Destruction efficiency of TPB was > 99.997%. (2) Other organics (TPB associated compounds), except biphenyl, were destroyed to below their respective detection limits. Biphenyl was partially destroyed in the process, mainly due to its propensity to reside in the vapor phase during the WAO reaction. Biphenyl is expected to be removed in the gas phase during the actual process, which is a continuous-flow system. (3) Reaction byproducts, remnants of MST, and the PUREX sludge, were characterized in this work. Radioactive species, such as Pu, Sr-90 and Cs-137 were quantified in the filtrate and slurry samples. Notably, Cs-137, boron and potassium were shown as soluble as a

  5. SU-E-T-417: A Method for Predicting and Correcting the Dosimetric Effect of a Radiotherapy Treatment Couch in Actual Treatment Position

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Duan, J; Shen, S; Wu, X; Huang, M; Benhabib, S; Cardan, R; Popple, R; Brezovich, I

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: Although radiation attenuation by the treatment couch can be included in the calculation of radiotherapy dose, difference between planned and actual treatment couch positions can generate significant dose discrepancies. We propose a method to predict and correct the dosimetric effect of the couch in actual treatment position. Methods: The couch transmission factor, T, varies with beam angle, G, couch lateral position, x, and vertical position, y, i.e., T=T(x,y,G). If T(x,y,G) is known for a fixed couch vertical position y=h, the transmission of central-axis beam (CAX) T(x,y,G) can be obtained by T(x,y,G)=T(x{sup +},h,G), where x{sup +}=x-(y-h)tan(G) and G is the angle between the beam and the vertical axis. Similarly, the transmission of any off-CAX point can be obtained using a similar formula. We measured CAX couch transmission at a fixed couch vertical position over the couch lateral motion range for all gantry angles by continuously scanning rotating arc beams. A 2D couch transmission correction matrix can thus be generated from T(x,h,G) for each treatment field for the actual couch position. By applying the transmission correction matrix to the planned field dose, the couch effect can be predicted and corrected. To verify this method, we measured couch transmission T(x, y=10cm, G=225)(225=IEC 135) and compared to that obtained from equivalent T(x{sup +}, y=3cm, G=225) over the range of lateral motion with a step size of 2 cm . Results: The measured couch transmission factors T(x, y=10cm, G=225) are in excellent agreement with those obtained from the equivalent T(x{sup +}, y=3cm, G=225). The mean difference is 0.004060.00135. Conclusion: The couch transmission correction matrix for any couch position and beam angle can be obtained from one set of scanning measurements at a fixed couch vertical position. The dosimetric effect of the treatment couch can be predicted and corrected by applying the couch transmission correction to the planned dose.

  6. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (stochastic) model with the weather forecast model (deterministic) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  7. Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anggraeni, Novia Antika

    2015-04-24

    The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.

  8. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  9. NREL, SolarCity Complete Experimental Evaluation of PV Inverter

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Anti-Islanding with Grid Support Functions in Multi-Inverter Island Scenarios | Energy Systems Integration | NREL NREL, SolarCity Complete Experimental Evaluation of PV Inverter Anti-Islanding with Grid Support Functions in Multi-Inverter Island Scenarios First known work using actual hardware to examine scenarios with multiple solar photovoltaic inverters connected to multiple different points on the grid July 26, 2016 Distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar photovoltaic (PV)

  10. NREL, SolarCity Complete Experimental Evaluation of PV Inverter

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Anti-Islanding with Grid Support Functions in Multi-Inverter Island Scenarios | Grid Modernization | NREL NREL, SolarCity Complete Experimental Evaluation of PV Inverter Anti-Islanding with Grid Support Functions in Multi-Inverter Island Scenarios First known work using actual hardware to examine scenarios with multiple solar photovoltaic inverters connected to multiple different points on the grid July 26, 2016 Distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have

  11. Overview of Evaluation Methods for R&D Programs. A Directory of Evaluation Methods Relevant to Technology Development Programs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ruegg, Rosalie; Jordan, Gretchen B.

    2007-03-01

    This document provides guidance for evaluators who conduct impact assessments to determine the “realized” economic benefits and costs, energy, environmental benefits, and other impacts of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s (EERE) R&D programs. The focus of this Guide is on realized outcomes or impacts of R&D programs actually experienced by American citizens, industry, and others.

  12. Energy Evaluation of a New Construction Pilot Community: Fresno, California

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burdick, A.; Poerschke, A.; Rapport, A.; Wayne, M.

    2014-06-01

    A new construction pilot community was constructed by builder-partner Wathen-Castanos Hybrid Homes based on a single occupied test house that was designed to achieve greater than 30% energy savings with respect to the Building America House Simulation Protocols developed by NREL. Builders face several key problems when implementing a whole-house systems integrated measures package from a single test house into multiple houses. This report addresses factors of implementation and scalability at the community scale and proposes methodologies by which community-scale energy evaluations can be performed based on results at the occupied test house level. Research focused on the builder and trade implementation of a measures package and the actual utility usage in the houses at the community scale of production. Five occupants participated in this research by providing utility bills and information on occupancy and miscellaneous gas and electric appliance use for their houses. IBACOS used these utility data and background information to analyze the actual energy performance of the houses. The actual utility bill readings were compared to projected energy consumption using BEopt with actual weather and thermostat set points for normalization.

  13. RTAP evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cupps, K.; Elko, S.; Folta, P.

    1995-01-23

    An in-depth analysis of the RTAP product was undertaken within the CNC associate program to determine the feasibility of utilizing it to replace the current Supervisory Control System that supports the AVLIS program. This document contains the results of that evaluation. With some fundamental redesign the current Supervisory Control system could meet the needs described above. The redesign would require a large amount of software rewriting and would be very time consuming. The higher level functionality (alarming, automation, etc.) would have to wait until its completion. Our current understanding and preliminary testing indicate that using commercial software is the best way to get these new features at the minimum cost to the program. Additional savings will be obtained by moving the maintenance costs of the basic control system from in-house to commercial industry and allowing our developers to concentrate on the unique control areas that require customization. Our current operating system, VMS, has become a hindrance. The UNIX operating system has become the choice for most scientific and engineering systems and we should follow suit. As a result of the commercial system survey referenced above we selected RTAP, a SCADA product developed by Hewlett Packard (HP), as the most favorable product to replace the current supervisory system in AVLIS. It is an extremely open system, with a large, well defined Application Programming Interface (API). This will allow the seamless integration of unique front end devices in the laser area (e.g. Optical Device Controller). RTAP also possesses various functionality that is lacking in our current system: integrated alarming, real-time configurable database, system scalability, and a Sequence Control Language (SQL developed by CPU, an RTAP Channel Partner) that will facilitate the automation necessary to bring the AVLIS process to plant-line operation. It runs on HP-9000, DEC-Alpha, IBM-RS6000 and Sun Workstations.

  14. Effects of the Financial Crisis on Photovoltaics: An Analysis of Changes in Market Forecasts from 2008 to 2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bartlett, J. E.; Margolis, R. M.; Jennings, C. E.

    2009-09-01

    To examine how the financial crisis has impacted expectations of photovoltaic production, demand and pricing over the next several years, we surveyed the market forecasts of industry analysts that had issued projections in 2008 and 2009. We find that the financial crisis has had a significant impact on the PV industry, primarily through increasing the cost and reducing the availability of investment into the sector. These effects have been more immediately experienced by PV installations than by production facilities, due to the different types and duration of investments, and thus PV demand has been reduced by a greater proportion than PV production. By reducing demand more than production, the financial crisis has accelerated previously expected PV overcapacity and resulting price declines.

  15. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-09-19

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the “Microbase” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  16. A system dynamic modeling approach for evaluating municipal solid waste generation, landfill capacity and related cost management issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kollikkathara, Naushad; Feng Huan; Yu Danlin

    2010-11-15

    As planning for sustainable municipal solid waste management has to address several inter-connected issues such as landfill capacity, environmental impacts and financial expenditure, it becomes increasingly necessary to understand the dynamic nature of their interactions. A system dynamics approach designed here attempts to address some of these issues by fitting a model framework for Newark urban region in the US, and running a forecast simulation. The dynamic system developed in this study incorporates the complexity of the waste generation and management process to some extent which is achieved through a combination of simpler sub-processes that are linked together to form a whole. The impact of decision options on the generation of waste in the city, on the remaining landfill capacity of the state, and on the economic cost or benefit actualized by different waste processing options are explored through this approach, providing valuable insights into the urban waste-management process.

  17. A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mellit, Adel; Pavan, Alessandro Massi

    2010-05-15

    Forecasting of solar irradiance is in general significant for planning the operations of power plants which convert renewable energies into electricity. In particular, the possibility to predict the solar irradiance (up to 24 h or even more) can became - with reference to the Grid Connected Photovoltaic Plants (GCPV) - fundamental in making power dispatching plans and - with reference to stand alone and hybrid systems - also a useful reference for improving the control algorithms of charge controllers. In this paper, a practical method for solar irradiance forecast using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The proposed Multilayer Perceptron MLP-model makes it possible to forecast the solar irradiance on a base of 24 h using the present values of the mean daily solar irradiance and air temperature. An experimental database of solar irradiance and air temperature data (from July 1st 2008 to May 23rd 2009 and from November 23rd 2009 to January 24th 2010) has been used. The database has been collected in Trieste (latitude 45 40'N, longitude 13 46'E), Italy. In order to check the generalization capability of the MLP-forecaster, a K-fold cross-validation was carried out. The results indicate that the proposed model performs well, while the correlation coefficient is in the range 98-99% for sunny days and 94-96% for cloudy days. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the GCPV plant installed on the rooftop of the municipality of Trieste shows the goodness of the proposed model. (author)

  18. New Whole-House Solutions Case Study: Low-Cost Evaluation of Energy Savings at the Community Scale - Fresno, California

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2014-10-01

    In this project, IBACOS partnered with builder Wathen-Castanos Hybrid Homes to develop a simple and low-cost methodology by which community-scale energy savings can be evaluated based on results at the occupied test house level.Research focused on the builder and trade implementation of a whole-house systems integrated measures package and the actual utility usage in the houses at the community scale of production. Five occupants participated in this community-scale research by providing utility bills and information on occupancy and miscellaneous gas and electric appliance use for their houses. IBACOS used these utility data and background information to analyze the actual energy performance of the houses. Verification with measured data is an important component in predictive energy modeling. The actual utility bill readings were compared to projected energy consumption using BEopt with actual weather and thermostat set points for normalization.

  19. Designing Auction-Based PV Incentives

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... Incentive payment, reporting and forecasting alignment - Forecast of future year incentive payments challenged by project in-service dates and actual production 7 Helping Utilities ...

  20. Evaluation of Hose in Hose Transfer Line Service Life for Hanford's Interim Stabilization Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    TORRES, T.D.

    2000-08-24

    RPP-6153, Engineering Task Plan for Hose-in-Hose Transfer System for the Interim Stabilization Program, defines the programmatic goals, functional requirements, and technical criteria for the development and subsequent installation of transfer line equipment to support Hanford's Interim Stabilization Program. RPP-6028, Specification for Hose in Hose Transfer Lines for Hanford's Interim Stabilization Program, has been issued to define the specific requirements for the design, manufacture, and verification of transfer line assemblies for specific waste transfer applications. Included in RPP-6028 are tables defining the chemical constituents of concern to which transfer lines will be exposed. Current Interim Stabilization Program planning forecasts that the at-grade transfer lines will be required to convey pumpable waste for as much as three years after commissioning. Prudent engineering dictates that the equipment placed in service have a working life in excess of this forecasted time period, with some margin to allow for future adjustments to the planned schedule. This document evaluates the effective service life of the Hose-in-Hose Transfer Lines, based on information submitted by the manufacturer and published literature. The effective service life of transfer line assemblies is a function of several factors. Foremost among these are process fluid characteristics, ambient environmental conditions, and the manufacturer's stated shelf life. This evaluation examines the manufacturer's certification of shelf life, the manufacturer's certifications of chemical compatibility with waste, and published literature on the effects of exposure to ionizing radiation on the mechanical properties of elastomeric materials to evaluate transfer line service life.

  1. SHEAR STRENGTH MEASURING EQUIPMENT EVALUATION AT THE COLD TEST FACILITY

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MEACHAM JE

    2009-09-09

    Retrievals under current criteria require that approximately 2,000,000 gallons of double-shell tank (DST) waste storage space not be used to prevent creating new tanks that might be susceptible to buoyant displacement gas release events (BDGRE). New criteria are being evaluated, based on actual sludge properties, to potentially show that sludge wastes do not exhibit the same BDGRE risk. Implementation of the new criteria requires measurement of in situ waste shear strength. Cone penetrometers were judged the best equipment for measuring in situ shear strength and an A.P. van den berg Hyson 100 kN Light Weight Cone Penetrometer (CPT) was selected for evaluation. The CPT was procured and then evaluated at the Hanford Site Cold Test Facility. Evaluation demonstrated that the equipment with minor modification was suitable for use in Tank Farms.

  2. Evaluation of passive solar retrofit options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ben-David, S.; Kirchemen, C.; Martin, S.; Noll, S.; Roach, F.

    1980-01-01

    An evaluation framework has been developed which allows for the assessment of the role of passive solar retrofit in the nationwide reduction of conventional fuel use. Three types of analysis are proposed within this framework: the physical/technical capability of the present housing stock to incorporate passive solar retrofit; the economic feasibility of the application of retrofit designs; and the actual market potential or acceptance of these alternative retrofit options. Each type of analysis has specific data requirements and a series of evaluation procedures to help establish estimates of the potential for passive solar retrofit in the present housing stock. The data requirements with their respective sources and evaluation procedures for the first two types of analysis-physical/technical setting and economic feasibility, are examined. A distinction is drawn between community specific case studies and more generalized national assessments. Information derived from these three types of analysis, whether case specific or national in scope, can then be used in an evaluation of potential economic impacts. The establishment of regional economic benefits and costs werve as a measure of the merit or attractiveness of the implementation of a passive solar retrofit program.

  3. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-10-03

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

  4. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  5. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  6. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 5: The DOETRAN user`s manual; The DOE-2/DBEDT DSM forecasting model interface

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then process the data into the forecasting model format. As DOETRAN processes the DOE-2 data, graphs of the total electric monthly impacts for each DSM measure appear, providing the user with a visual means of inspecting DOE-2 data, as well as following program execution. DOETRAN provides three tables for each building type for the forecasting model, one for electric measures, gas measures, and basecases. The optional fourth function provided by DOETRAN is to view graphs of total electric annual impacts by measure. This last option allows a comparative view of how one measure rates against another. A section in this manual is devoted to each of the four functions mentioned above, as well as computer requirements and exiting DOETRAN.

  7. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  8. Coupling WRF double-moment 6-class microphysics schemes to RRTMG radiation scheme in weather research forecasting model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Bae, Soo Ya; Hong, Song -You; Lim, Kyo-Sun Sunny

    2016-01-01

    A method to explicitly calculate the effective radius of hydrometeors in the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) double-moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme is designed to tackle the physical inconsistency in cloud properties between the microphysics and radiation processes. At each model time step, the calculated effective radii of hydrometeors from the WDM6 scheme are linked to the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs (RRTMG) scheme to consider the cloud effects in radiative flux calculation. This coupling effect of cloud properties between the WDM6 and RRTMG algorithms is examined for a heavy rainfall event in Korea during 25–27 July 2011, and itmore » is compared to the results from the control simulation in which the effective radius is prescribed as a constant value. It is found that the derived radii of hydrometeors in the WDM6 scheme are generally larger than the prescribed values in the RRTMG scheme. Consequently, shortwave fluxes reaching the ground (SWDOWN) are increased over less cloudy regions, showing a better agreement with a satellite image. The overall distribution of the 24-hour accumulated rainfall is not affected but its amount is changed. In conclusion, a spurious rainfall peak over the Yellow Sea is alleviated, whereas the local maximum in the central part of the peninsula is increased.« less

  9. Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1994--FY 2001. Environmental Restoration Program, September 1993 Revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    This Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project. FY 1994--FY 2001 is the third in a series of documents that report current estimates of the waste volumes expected to be generated as a result of Environmental Restoration activities at Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office (DOE-ORO), sites. Considered in the scope of this document are volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of remedial action and decontamination and decommissioning activities taking place at these sites. Sites contributing to the total estimates make up the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Y-12 Plant, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, and the off-site contaminated areas adjacent to the Oak Ridge facilities (collectively referred to as the Oak Ridge Reservation Off-Site area). Estimates are available for the entire fife of all waste generating activities. This document summarizes waste estimates forecasted for the 8-year period of FY 1994-FY 2001. Updates with varying degrees of change are expected throughout the refinement of restoration strategies currently in progress at each of the sites. Waste forecast data are relatively fluid, and this document represents remediation plans only as reported through September 1993.

  10. Final Report, 2011-2014. Forecasting Carbon Storage as Eastern Forests Age. Joining Experimental and Modeling Approaches at the UMBS AmeriFlux Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis, Peter; Bohrer, Gil; Gough, Christopher; Nadelhoffer, Knute

    2015-03-12

    At the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) AmeriFlux sites (US-UMB and US-UMd), long-term C cycling measurements and a novel ecosystem-scale experiment are revealing physical, biological, and ecological mechanisms driving long-term trajectories of C cycling, providing new data for improving modeling forecasts of C storage in eastern forests. Our findings provide support for previously untested hypotheses that stand-level structural and biological properties constrain long-term trajectories of C storage, and that remotely sensed canopy structural parameters can substantially improve model forecasts of forest C storage. Through the Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET), we are directly testing the hypothesis that forest C storage will increase due to increasing structural and biological complexity of the emerging tree communities. Support from this project, 2011-2014, enabled us to incorporate novel physical and ecological mechanisms into ecological, meteorological, and hydrological models to improve forecasts of future forest C storage in response to disturbance, succession, and current and long-term climate variation

  11. Evaluation Project 4492

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Organization area to allow the movement and radio-graphing of component for evaluation to determine the proper Project Execution Plan for dismantlement. Evaluation Project...

  12. Evaluating Electric Vehicle Charging Impacts and Customer Charging...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... Customers, September 2014 ix. New Forecasting Tool Enhances Wind Energy Integration ... in Smart Grid Technologies Improves Services and Lowers Costs, October 2014 xiii. ...

  13. Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The goal of this project is to produce accurate, consistent and comprehensive data sets ... (NCEP) and has been implemented in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. ...

  14. Evaluation Consultant RFP

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Evaluation Consultant RFP, from the Tool Kit Framework: Small Town University Energy Program (STEP).

  15. Preliminary Impact Evaluation BBNP

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Preliminary Impact Evaluation of the U.S. Department of Energy's Better Buildings Neighborhood Program, 2013.

  16. Summary of available waste forecast data for the Environmental Restoration Program at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    This report identifies patterns of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Environmental Restoration (ER) waste generation that are predicted by the current ER Waste Generation Forecast data base. It compares the waste volumes to be generated with the waste management capabilities of current and proposed treatment, storage, or disposal (TSD) facilities. The scope of this report is limited to wastes generated during activities funded by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environmental Restoration (EM-40) and excludes wastes from the decontamination and decommissioning of facilities. Significant quantities of these wastes are expected to be generated during ER activities. This report has been developed as a management tool supporting communication and coordination of waste management activities at ORNL. It summarizes the available data for waste that will be generated as a result of remediation activities under the direction of the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office and identifies areas requiring continued waste management planning and coordination. Based on the available data, it is evident that most remedial action wastes leaving the area of contamination can be managed adequately with existing and planned ORR waste management facilities if attention is given to waste generation scheduling and the physical limitations of particular TSD facilities. Limited use of off-site commercial TSD facilities is anticipated, provided the affected waste streams can be shown to satisfy the requirements of the performance objective for certification of non-radioactive hazardous waste and the waste acceptance criteria of the off-site facilities. Ongoing waste characterization will be required to determine the most appropriate TSD facility for each waste stream.

  17. Simulations of arctic mixed-phase clouds in forecasts with CAM3 and AM2 for M-PACE

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Xie, Shaocheng; Boyle, James; Klein, Stephen A.; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven

    2008-02-27

    [1] Simulations of mixed-phase clouds in forecasts with the NCAR Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the GFDL Atmospheric Model version 2 (AM2) for the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) are performed using analysis data from numerical weather prediction centers. CAM3 significantly underestimates the observed boundary layer mixed-phase cloud fraction and cannot realistically simulate the variations of liquid water fraction with temperature and cloud height due to its oversimplified cloud microphysical scheme. In contrast, AM2 reasonably reproduces the observed boundary layer cloud fraction while its clouds contain much less cloud condensate than CAM3 and the observations. The simulation of themore » boundary layer mixed-phase clouds and their microphysical properties is considerably improved in CAM3 when a new physically based cloud microphysical scheme is used (CAM3LIU). The new scheme also leads to an improved simulation of the surface and top of the atmosphere longwave radiative fluxes. Sensitivity tests show that these results are not sensitive to the analysis data used for model initialization. Increasing model horizontal resolution helps capture the subgrid-scale features in Arctic frontal clouds but does not help improve the simulation of the single-layer boundary layer clouds. AM2 simulated cloud fraction and LWP are sensitive to the change in cloud ice number concentrations used in the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process while CAM3LIU only shows moderate sensitivity in its cloud fields to this change. Furthermore, this paper shows that the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process is important for these models to correctly simulate the observed features of mixed-phase clouds.« less

  18. Program Evaluation: Planning and Conducting Evaluations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This area of the website takes you through step-by-step processes for planning and conducting the In-progress Peer Reviews and Impact Evaluations described on this website. In general, for each...

  19. Evaluating Moving Target Defense with PLADD

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, Stephen T.; Outkin, Alexander V.; Gearhart, Jared Lee; Hobbs, Jacob Aaron; Siirola, John Daniel; Phillips, Cynthia A.; Verzi, Stephen Joseph; Tauritz, Daniel; Mulder, Samuel A.; Naugle, Asmeret Bier

    2015-09-15

    This project evaluates the effectiveness of moving target defense (MTD) techniques using a new game we have designed, called PLADD, inspired by the game FlipIt [28]. PLADD extends FlipIt by incorporating what we believe are key MTD concepts. We have analyzed PLADD and proven the existence of a defender strategy that pushes a rational attacker out of the game, demonstrated how limited the strategies available to an attacker are in PLADD, and derived analytic expressions for the expected utility of the game’s players in multiple game variants. We have created an algorithm for finding a defender’s optimal PLADD strategy. We show that in the special case of achieving deterrence in PLADD, MTD is not always cost effective and that its optimal deployment may shift abruptly from not using MTD at all to using it as aggressively as possible. We believe our effort provides basic, fundamental insights into the use of MTD, but conclude that a truly practical analysis requires model selection and calibration based on real scenarios and empirical data. We propose several avenues for further inquiry, including (1) agents with adaptive capabilities more reflective of real world adversaries, (2) the presence of multiple, heterogeneous adversaries, (3) computational game theory-based approaches such as coevolution to allow scaling to the real world beyond the limitations of analytical analysis and classical game theory, (4) mapping the game to real-world scenarios, (5) taking player risk into account when designing a strategy (in addition to expected payoff), (6) improving our understanding of the dynamic nature of MTD-inspired games by using a martingale representation, defensive forecasting, and techniques from signal processing, and (7) using adversarial games to develop inherently resilient cyber systems.

  20. The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

    2012-12-31

    ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most wind plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational

  1. The Partnership Evaluation Framework

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    U.S. Department of Energy Better Buildings Neighborhood Program: The Partnership Evaluation Framework: How to evaluate a potential partner’s business model and identify areas for collaboration.

  2. Technical and systems evaluations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Skolnik, E.G.; DiPietro, J.P.

    1998-08-01

    During FY 1998 Energetics performed a variety of technology-based evaluations for the Hydrogen Program. Three evaluations are summarized below: hydrogen bromine-based electricity storage, carbon-based hydrogen storage, and hydrogen-fueled buses.

  3. Program Evaluation: Lessons Learned

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A number of lessons have been learned from implementing peer reviews and critiques of past (pre-2006) outcome/impact evaluation studies that will help improve evaluation practice in EERE. Awareness...

  4. Program Evaluation: Monitor Implementation

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Once you have chosen the evaluation contractor, the next step is to work with the contractor to get the evaluation plan finalized and to provide the lists and other assistance the contractor needs....

  5. Geotechnical Analysis Report for July 2002 - June 2003

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Washington TRU Solutions LLC

    2004-03-03

    This Geotechnical Analysis Report (GAR) presents and interprets the geotechnical data from the underground excavations at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The data, which are obtained as part of a regular monitoring program, are used to characterize conditions, to compare actual performance to the design assumptions, and to evaluate and forecast the performance of the underground excavations.

  6. Advanced Vehicle Testing & Evaluation

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    2013 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting

  7. Advanced Vehicle Testing & Evaluation

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    2012 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting

  8. Advanced Vehicle Testing & Evaluation

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    2011 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program, and Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation

  9. Who's Evaluating What? Planned Program Evaluations | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Who's Evaluating What? Planned Program Evaluations Who's Evaluating What? Planned Program Evaluations Better Buildings Peer Exchange Call, Who's Evaluating What? - Planned Program Evaluations, November 17, 2011. During this call participants shared their evaluation plans and initial results and discussed DOE and fellow programs' evaluation efforts. Discussion Summary (530.03 KB) More Documents & Publications Process Evaluation of the Better Buildings Neighborhood Program, Final Evaluation

  10. The challenge for stormwater technology evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hjertberg, E.

    1999-07-01

    Manufacturers of innovative ultra-urban stormwater treatment technologies see an upsurge in demand for their engineered devices driven largely by new regulatory compliance requirements. In spite of this, they are having difficulty selling their products on the scale they envisioned because prospective buyers and operators of stormwater treatment equipment are unsure about how these new devices will actually perform in a given application. Government officials worry about the validity of manufacturer claims. Besides the obvious concern over bias introduced in tests, they are concerned about the transferability of test results from location to location. The demand-side community wants assurances that testing was performed consistently in well-defined site conditions and that the technical protocols under which various field tests were conducted were rigorous and carefully observed. The marketplace needs relevant information it can trust. The most effective way to provide that information is through a consensus-based process, directly involving the community of stakeholders who will ultimately make the decisions regarding the approval, adoption, and use of the technology. To provide a private sector, market-based approach to this objective evaluation process, a new Environmental Technology Evaluation center (EvTEC) was created in October 1996 through the Civil Engineering Research Foundation (CERF).

  11. Substation evaluation using Diagnostic Logic System (DIALOG)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Andre, W.L.

    1989-08-01

    This project investigated the feasibility of applying a Diagnostic Logic System (DIAGLOG) to evaluate substation operation. The purpose was to see if a determination can be made as to whether the equipment in a substation operated correctly or not when an operating event occurred. The work was directed toward modifying an already proven diagnostic system to create a simplified procedure for describing the operation of substation equipment. Special operating tables or modules of logic were identified for describing relay and breaker operations. The resulting model composed of all the modules connected together is used to evaluate the actual observations available at the substation, and to compare them with what the substation should have produced. The report covers the diagnostic approach used, information on how to construct the modules and examples of diagnosis. Also covered are discussions on the special features of substations that offer a challenge to performing diagnostics. Included in the report are the results of modeling a typical substation and several notes are provided along with an initial library of typical modules which were developed in modeling one of the substations belonging to the Pacific Gas and Electric Company. This substation served as a feasibility demonstrator. 15 figs.

  12. Evaluation and Ranking of Geothermal Resources for Electrical Generation or Electrical Offset in Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington. Volume I.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bloomquist, R. Gordon

    1985-06-01

    The objective was to consolidate and evaluate all geologic, environmental, and legal and institutional information in existing records and files, and to apply a uniform methodology to the evaluation and ranking of sites to allow the making of creditable forecasts of the supply of geothermal energy which could be available in the region over a 20 year planning horizon. A total of 1265 potential geothermal resource sites were identified from existing literature. Site selection was based upon the presence of thermal and mineral springs or wells and/or areas of recent volcanic activity and high heat flow. 250 sites were selected for detailed analysis. A methodology to rank the sites by energy potential, degree of developability, and cost of energy was developed. Resource developability was ranked by a method based on a weighted variable evaluation of resource favorability. Sites were ranked using an integration of values determined through the cost and developability analysis. 75 figs., 63 tabs.

  13. American Evaluation Association Guiding Principles for Evaluators, 2004 |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy American Evaluation Association Guiding Principles for Evaluators, 2004 American Evaluation Association Guiding Principles for Evaluators, 2004 Five principles developed by American Evaluation Associ intended to guide professional practice of evaluators & to inform evaluation clients and the general public about principles they can expect to be upheld by professional evaluators. Guiding Principles for Evaluators (204.88 KB) More Documents & Publications ORSSAB

  14. Development of an Immersed Boundary Method to Resolve Complex Terrain in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lunquist, K A; Chow, F K; Lundquist, J K; Mirocha, J D

    2007-09-04

    simulations, on the other hand, are performed by numerical weather prediction (NWP) codes, which cannot handle the geometry of the urban landscape, but do provide a more complete representation of atmospheric physics. NWP codes typically use structured grids with terrain-following vertical coordinates, include a full suite of atmospheric physics parameterizations, and allow for dynamic synoptic scale lateral forcing through grid nesting. Terrain following grids are unsuitable for urban terrain, as steep terrain gradients cause extreme distortion of the computational cells. In this work, we introduce and develop an immersed boundary method (IBM) to allow the favorable properties of a numerical weather prediction code to be combined with the ability to handle complex terrain. IBM uses a non-conforming structured grid, and allows solid boundaries to pass through the computational cells. As the terrain passes through the mesh in an arbitrary manner, the main goal of the IBM is to apply the boundary condition on the interior of the domain as accurately as possible. With the implementation of the IBM, numerical weather prediction codes can be used to explicitly resolve urban terrain. Heterogeneous urban domains using the IBM can be nested into larger mesoscale domains using a terrain-following coordinate. The larger mesoscale domain provides lateral boundary conditions to the urban domain with the correct forcing, allowing seamless integration between mesoscale and urban scale models. Further discussion of the scope of this project is given by Lundquist et al. [2007]. The current paper describes the implementation of an IBM into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open source numerical weather prediction code. The WRF model solves the non-hydrostatic compressible Navier-Stokes equations, and employs an isobaric terrain-following vertical coordinate. Many types of IB methods have been developed by researchers; a comprehensive review can be found in Mittal

  15. Exposure Evaluation Process

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Exposure Evaluation Process for Tank Farm Workers L.B. Sandy Rock, MD, MPH Risk Communication HPMC Occupational Medical Services An increase in the number of tank farm vapor exposures has led to many questions and concerns among workers and management. * During regular clinic hours, HPMC OMS is responsible for the medical evaluation of workers reporting exposure to vapors. * At other times, workers are taken to Kadlec Hospital which has an arrangement with DOE/HPMC OMS to evaluate, treat, refer

  16. Service Center Evaluation Guide

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Evaluation Guide, Selected Bibliography on Electric Motor Repair, Model Repair Specifications for Low Voltage Motors, and Motor Repair Tech Brief- were produced by the U.S. ...

  17. Precursor and Fiber Evaluation

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    2009 DOE Hydrogen Program and Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting, May 18-22, 2009 -- Washington D.C.

  18. MSA Evaluation Archive

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Education Teachers (K-12) Archive MSA Evaluation Archive The Laboratory's Math and Science Academy provides quality STEM education professional development for teachers in...

  19. test and evaluation

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    5%2A en Office of Test and Evaluation http:nnsa.energy.govaboutusourprogramsdefenseprogramsstockpilestewardshiptestcapabilitiesand-eval

  20. Project Evaluation Models

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    ... to evaluate its performance and lowest cost of energy * Uses hourly resource data for wind and solar Renewable Energy Options * Models existing generation (Grid, backup ...

  1. Fast Neutron Detection Evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McKigney, Edward A.; Stange, Sy

    2014-03-17

    These slides present a summary of previous work, conclusions, and anticipated schedule for the conclusion of our fast neutron detection evaluation.

  2. ORISE: Research and Evaluation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are built on solid research and evaluation. This information helps agencies refine the design, implementation and overall quality of a communication intervention. To support the...

  3. Evaluation Project 4492

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    the Kansas City Plant (KCP) in Kansas City, Missouri to evaluate parts that have undergone testing. Sandia Site Office Postmortem Code Blue--Kansas City Plant (KCP) Kansas ...

  4. Weapons of Mass Destruction Technology Evaluation and Training Range

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kevin Larry Young

    2009-05-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has a long history for providing technology evaluation and training for military and other federal level Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) response agencies. Currently there are many federal organizations and commercial companies developing technologies related to detecting, assessing, mitigating and protecting against hazards associated with a WMD event. Unfortunately, very few locations exist within the United States where WMD response technologies are realistically field tested and evaluated using real chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and explosive materials. This is particularly true with biological and radiological hazards. Related to this lack of adequate WMD, multi-hazard technology testing capability is the shortage of locations where WMD response teams can train using actual chemical, biological, and radiological material or highly realistic simulates. In response to these technology evaluation and training needs, the INL has assembled a consortium of subject matter experts from existing programs and identified dedicated resources for the purpose of establishing an all-hazards, WMD technology evaluation and training range. The author describes the challenges associated with creating the all-hazards WMD technology evaluation and training range and lists the technical, logistical and financial benefits of an all-hazards technology evaluation and training range. Current resources and capabilities for conducting all-hazard technology evaluation and training at the INL are identified. Existing technology evaluation and training programs at the INL related to radiological, biological and chemical hazards are highlighted, including successes and lessons learned. Finally, remaining gaps in WMD technology evaluation and training capabilities are identified along with recommendations for closing those gaps.

  5. Program Evaluation: Use the Results

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Communicating and disseminating the evaluation findings is a critical step in building support for utilizing those findings. Managers of the evaluation and evaluators should plan the reporting...

  6. Building America Case Study: Low-Cost Evaluation of Energy Savings at the Community Scale, Fresno, California (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2014-10-01

    A new construction pilot community was constructed by builder-partner Wathen-Castanos Hybrid Homes (WCHH) based on a single occupied test house that was designed to achieve greater than 30% energy savings with respect to the House Simulation Protocols (Hendron, Robert; Engebrecht, Cheryn (2010). Building America House Simulation Protocols. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory.). Builders face several key problems when implementing a whole-house systems integrated measures package (SIMP) from a single test house into multiple houses. Although a technical solution already may have been evaluated and validated in an individual test house, the potential exists for constructability failures at the community scale. This report addresses factors of implementation and scalability at the community scale and proposes methodologies by which community-scale energy evaluations can be performed based on results at the occupied test house level. Research focused on the builder and trade implementation of a SIMP and the actual utility usage in the houses at the community scale of production. Five occupants participated in this community-scale research by providing utility bills and information on occupancy and miscellaneous gas and electric appliance use for their houses. IBACOS used these utility data and background information to analyze the actual energy performance of the houses. Verification with measured data is an important component in predictive energy modeling. The actual utility bill readings were compared to projected energy consumption using BEopt with actual weather and thermostat set points for normalization.

  7. MSA Evaluation Archive

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Education » Teachers (K-12) » Archive MSA Evaluation Archive The Laboratory's Math and Science Academy provides quality STEM education professional development for teachers in participating schools and districts. Contact Math and Science Academy Community Partnerships Office (505) 665-4400 MSA Program Evaluations FY13-14 (pdf) FY12-13 (pdf) FY11-12

  8. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID tomore » build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

  9. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

  10. Intermediate evaluation of USAID/Cairo energy policy planning project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilbanks, T.J.; Wright, S.B. ); Barron, W.F. ); Kamel, A.M. ); Santiago, H.T. )

    1992-01-01

    Three years ago, a team from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Oak Ridge Associated Universities, supplemented by an expert from the US Department of Energy and a senior Egyptian energy professional, carried out what was termed an intermediate evaluation'' of a major energy policy project in Egypt. Supported by USAID/Cairo, the project had concentrated on developing and strengthening an Organization for Energy Planning (OEP) within the Government of India, and it was actually scheduled to end less than a year after this evaluation. The evaluation was submitted to USAID/Cairo and circulated elsewhere in the US Agency for International Development and the Government of Egypt as an internal report. Over the next several years, the USAID energy planning project ended and the functions performed by OEP were merged with planning capabilities in the electric power sector. Now that the major issues addressed by the evaluation report have been resolved, we are making it available to a broader audience as a contribution to the general literature on development project evaluation and institution-building.

  11. Intermediate evaluation of USAID/Cairo energy policy planning project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilbanks, T.J.; Wright, S.B.; Barron, W.F.; Kamel, A.M.; Santiago, H.T.

    1992-09-01

    Three years ago, a team from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Oak Ridge Associated Universities, supplemented by an expert from the US Department of Energy and a senior Egyptian energy professional, carried out what was termed an ``intermediate evaluation`` of a major energy policy project in Egypt. Supported by USAID/Cairo, the project had concentrated on developing and strengthening an Organization for Energy Planning (OEP) within the Government of India, and it was actually scheduled to end less than a year after this evaluation. The evaluation was submitted to USAID/Cairo and circulated elsewhere in the US Agency for International Development and the Government of Egypt as an internal report. Over the next several years, the USAID energy planning project ended and the functions performed by OEP were merged with planning capabilities in the electric power sector. Now that the major issues addressed by the evaluation report have been resolved, we are making it available to a broader audience as a contribution to the general literature on development project evaluation and institution-building.

  12. Could Material Defects Actually Improve Solar Cells?

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Deep-level defects frequently hamper the efficiency of solar cells, but NREL theoretical research suggests that defects with properly engineered energy levels can improve carrier ...

  13. Assessment of Energy Storage Alternatives in the Puget Sound Energy System Volume 2: Energy Storage Evaluation Tool

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, Di; Jin, Chunlian; Balducci, Patrick J.; Kintner-Meyer, Michael CW

    2013-12-01

    This volume presents the battery storage evaluation tool developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), which is used to evaluate benefits of battery storage for multiple grid applications, including energy arbitrage, balancing service, capacity value, distribution system equipment deferral, and outage mitigation. This tool is based on the optimal control strategies to capture multiple services from a single energy storage device. In this control strategy, at each hour, a look-ahead optimization is first formulated and solved to determine battery base operating point. The minute by minute simulation is then performed to simulate the actual battery operation. This volume provide background and manual for this evaluation tool.

  14. NREL Evaluates Performance of Hydraulic Hybrid Refuse Vehicles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2015-09-01

    This highlight describes NREL's evaluation of the in-service performance of 10 next-generation hydraulic hybrid refuse vehicles (HHVs), 8 previous-generation (model year 2013) HHVs, and 8 comparable conventional diesel vehicles operated by Miami-Dade County's Public Works and Waste Management Department in southern Florida. Launched in March 2015, the on-road portion of this 12-month evaluation focuses on collecting and analyzing vehicle performance data - fuel economy, maintenance costs, and drive cycles - from the HHVs and the conventional diesel vehicles. The fuel economy of heavy-duty vehicles, such as refuse trucks, is largely dependent on the load carried and the drive cycles on which they operate. In the right applications, HHVs offer a potential fuel-cost advantage over their conventional counterparts. This advantage is contingent, however, on driving behavior and drive cycles with high kinetic intensity that take advantage of regenerative braking. NREL's evaluation will assess the performance of this technology in commercial operation and help Miami-Dade County determine the ideal routes for maximizing the fuel-saving potential of its HHVs. Based on the field data, NREL will develop a validated vehicle model using the Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator, also known as FASTSim, to study the impacts of route selection and other vehicle parameters. NREL is also analyzing fueling and maintenance data to support total-cost-of-ownership estimations and forecasts. The study aims to improve understanding of the overall usage and effectiveness of HHVs in refuse operation compared to similar conventional vehicles and to provide unbiased technical information to interested stakeholders.

  15. Evaluating Solar Resource Data Obtained from Multiple Radiometers Deployed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Habte, A.; Sengupta, M.; Andreas, A.; Wilcox, S.; Stoffel, T.

    2014-09-01

    Solar radiation resource measurements from radiometers are used to predict and evaluate the performance of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power systems, validate satellite-based models for estimating solar resources, and advance research in solar forecasting and climate change. This study analyzes the performance of various commercially available radiometers used for measuring global horizontal irradiances (GHI) and direct normal irradiances (DNI). These include pyranometers, pyrheliometers, rotating shadowband irradiometers, and a pyranometer with a shading ring deployed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL). The radiometers in this study were deployed for one year (from April 1, 2011, through March 31, 2012) and compared to measurements from radiometers with the lowest values of estimated measurement uncertainties for producing reference GHI and DNI.

  16. Internal Controls Evaluations

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    4, 2016 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Internal Control Evaluations Fiscal Year 2016 Guidance Page | 2 Table of Contents I. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 4 A. Background ......................................................................................................................................... 4 B. New for FY

  17. Market Effects Evaluation Report

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A report evaluating the U.S. Department of Energy Solid State Lighting Program for FY 2006 – FY 2012 to determine its effectiveness and progress toward achieving program objectives and to assess...

  18. Service Center Evaluation Guide

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    To be assured of a quality product, customers of motor repair service centers need to be knowledgeable about the service they're purchasing. This guide provides information to assist in evaluating motor repair service centers.

  19. BUILDING 341 Seismic Evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Halle, J.

    2015-06-15

    The Seismic Evaluation of Building 341 located at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Livermore, California has been completed. The subject building consists of a main building, Increment 1, and two smaller additions; Increments 2 and 3.

  20. Risk assessment of turbine rotor failure using probabilistic ultrasonic non-destructive evaluations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Guan, Xuefei; Zhang, Jingdan; Zhou, S. Kevin; Rasselkorde, El Mahjoub; Abbasi, Waheed A.

    2014-02-18

    The study presents a method and application of risk assessment methodology for turbine rotor fatigue failure using probabilistic ultrasonic nondestructive evaluations. A rigorous probabilistic modeling for ultrasonic flaw sizing is developed by incorporating the model-assisted probability of detection, and the probability density function (PDF) of the actual flaw size is derived. Two general scenarios, namely the ultrasonic inspection with an identified flaw indication and the ultrasonic inspection without flaw indication, are considered in the derivation. To perform estimations for fatigue reliability and remaining useful life, uncertainties from ultrasonic flaw sizing and fatigue model parameters are systematically included and quantified. The model parameter PDF is estimated using Bayesian parameter estimation and actual fatigue testing data. The overall method is demonstrated using a realistic application of steam turbine rotor, and the risk analysis under given safety criteria is provided to support maintenance planning.

  1. Evaluated Nuclear Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oblozinsky, P.; Oblozinsky,P.; Herman,M.; Mughabghab,S.F.

    2010-10-01

    This chapter describes the current status of evaluated nuclear data for nuclear technology applications. We start with evaluation procedures for neutron-induced reactions focusing on incident energies from the thermal energy up to 20 MeV, though higher energies are also mentioned. This is followed by examining the status of evaluated neutron data for actinides that play dominant role in most of the applications, followed by coolants/moderators, structural materials and fission products. We then discuss neutron covariance data that characterize uncertainties and correlations. We explain how modern nuclear evaluated data libraries are validated against an extensive set of integral benchmark experiments. Afterwards, we briefly examine other data of importance for nuclear technology, including fission yields, thermal neutron scattering and decay data. A description of three major evaluated nuclear data libraries is provided, including the latest version of the US library ENDF/B-VII.0, European JEFF-3.1 and Japanese JENDL-3.3. A brief introduction is made to current web retrieval systems that allow easy access to a vast amount of up-to-date evaluated nuclear data for nuclear technology applications.

  2. MODULAR CONSTRUCTION SYSTEM EVALUATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Gillespie

    2002-08-08

    The purpose of this study is to respond to U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Technical Direction Letter (TDL) 02-003 (Waisley 2001), which directs Bechtel SAIC Company, LLC (BSC) to complete a design study to recommend repository design options to support receipt and/or emplacement of any or all of the following: commercial spent nuclear fuel (CSNF), high-level radioactive waste (HLW), DOE-managed spent nuclear fuel (DSNF) (including naval spent nuclear fuel [SNF]), and immobilized plutonium (if available), as soon as practicable, but no later than 2010. From the possible design options, a recommended approach will be determined for further evaluation to support the preliminary design of the repository. This study integrates the results of the repository Design Evolution Study (Rowe 2002) with supporting studies concerning national transportation options (BSC 2002b) and Nevada transportation options (Gehner 2002). The repository Design Evolution Study documents the processes used to reevaluate the design, construction, operation, and cost of the repository in response to TDL 02-003 (Waisley 2001), and to determine possible repository conceptual design options. The transportation studies evaluate the national and Nevada transportation options that support the repository conceptual design options. An evaluation methodology was established, based on Program-level requirements developed for the study in reference BSC 2001a, to allow the repository and system design options to be evaluated on a consistent basis. The transportation options and the design components were integrated into system design implementation options, which were evaluated using receipt and emplacement scenarios. The scenarios tested the ability of the design concept to adapt to changes in funding, waste receipt rate, and Nevada rail transportation availability. The results of the evaluation (in terms of system throughput, cost, and schedule) were then compared to the Program-level requirements, and

  3. Review and evaluation of literature on testing of chemical additives for scale control in geothermal fluids. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crane, C.H.; Kenkeremath, D.C.

    1981-01-01

    A selected group of reported tests of chemical additives in actual geothermal fluids are reviewed and evaluated to summarize the status of chemical scale-control testing and identify information and testing needs. The task distinguishes between scale control in the cooling system of a flash plant and elsewhere in the utilization system due to the essentially different operating environments involved. Additives for non-cooling geothermal fluids are discussed by scale type: silica, carbonate, and sulfide.

  4. Program Evaluation: EERE Planned and Completed Evaluations | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Evaluation » Information Resources » Program Evaluation: EERE Planned and Completed Evaluations Program Evaluation: EERE Planned and Completed Evaluations This section provides a list of past and planned evaluation reports for the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). Many of the listed reports are available as downloads. The table below tells you which offices have reports accessible as downloads. A checked box in the table -

  5. Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Transit Bus Evaluations: Joint Evaluation...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Administration; Appendix Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Transit Bus Evaluations: Joint Evaluation Plan for the U.S. Department of Energy and the Federal Transit Administration; Appendix ...

  6. Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Transit Bus Evaluations: Joint Evaluation...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Administration Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Transit Bus Evaluations: Joint Evaluation Plan for the U.S. Department of Energy and the Federal Transit Administration This document ...

  7. Evaluation of accountability measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cacic, C.G.

    1988-01-01

    The New Brunswick Laboratory (NBL) is programmatically responsible to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Safeguards and Security (OSS) for providing independent review and evaluation of accountability measurement technology in DOE nuclear facilities. This function is addressed in part through the NBL Safegaurds Measurement Evaluation (SME) Program. The SME Program utilizes both on-site review of measurement methods along with material-specific measurement evaluation studies to provide information concerning the adequacy of subject accountability measurements. This paper reviews SME Program activities for the 1986-87 time period, with emphasis on noted improvements in measurement capabilities. Continued evolution of the SME Program to respond to changing safeguards concerns is discussed.

  8. Soil washing technology evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Suer, A.

    1995-04-01

    Environmental Restoration Engineering (ERE) continues to review innovative, efficient, and cost effective technologies for SRS soil and/or groundwater remediation. As part of this effort, this technical evaluation provides review and the latest information on the technology for SRS soil remediation. Additional technology evaluation reports will be issued periodically to update these reports. The purpose of this report is to review the soil washing technology and its potential application to SRS soil remediation. To assess whether the Soil Washing technology is a viable option for SRS soil remediation, it is necessary to review the technology/process, technology advantages/limitations, performance, applications, and cost analysis.

  9. An evaluation and optimization of lubricants for turbocharged gasoline engines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kagaya, M.; Ishikawa

    1984-01-01

    In Japan, turbocharged passenger cars have recently been introduced with increased improvements in fuel economy and engine performance. However, a turbocharger is driven by hot exhaust gas, so that an engine oil with superior thermal stability is required. After studying a turbocharged engine's thermal effects, two laboratory screening tests that correlate with dynamometer engine tests were established. These tests, termed the panel coking test and the high temperature panel corrosion test, enable one to evaluate base oils, additive components and viscosity index improvers for a given engine oil. Finally, a 10W-30 engine oil formulated by using these tests, showed superior deposit control and anticorrosion performance in the dynamometer engine test and actual driving conditions.

  10. An evaluation and optimization of lubricants for turbocharged gasoline engines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kagaya, M.; Ishikawa, S.

    1984-02-01

    In Japan, turbocharged passenger cars have recently been introduced with increased improvements in fuel economy and engine performance. However, a turbocharger is driven by hot exhaust gas, so that an engine oil with superior thermal stability is required. After studying a turbocharged engine's thermal effects, two laboratory screening tests that correlate with dynamometer engine tests were established. These tests, termed the panel coking test and the high temperature panel corrosion test, enable one to evaluate base oils, additive components and viscosity index improvers for a given engine oil. Finally, a 10W-30 engine oil formulated by using these tests, showed superior deposit control and anticorrosion performance in the dynamometer engine test and actual driving conditions.

  11. Fracture properties evaluation of stainless steel piping for LBB applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Y.J.; Seok, C.S.; Chang, Y.S.

    1997-04-01

    The objective of this paper is to evaluate the material properties of SA312 TP316 and SA312 TP304 stainless steels and their associated welds manufactured for shutdown cooling line and safety injection line of nuclear generating stations. A total of 82 tensile tests and 58 fracture toughness tests on specimens taken from actual pipes were performed and the effect of various parameters such as the pipe size, the specimen orientation, the test temperature and the welding procedure on the material properties are discussed. Test results show that the effect of the test temperature on the fracture toughness was significant while the effects of the pipe size and the specimen orientation on the fracture toughness were negligible. The material properties of the GTAW weld metal was in general higher than those of the base metal.

  12. Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    FASTER project Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using Arm ... development and evaluation of convection and cloud parameterizations in climate models. ...

  13. Program Evaluation | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Program Evaluation The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) takes an active role in measuring and evaluating its projects and programs. One focus of these ...

  14. TUNL Nuclear Data Evaluation Group

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    TUNL Nuclear Data Evaluation Group As a part of the United States Nuclear Data Network and the international Nuclear Structure and Decay Data Evaluators' Network, the Nuclear Data...

  15. Program Evaluation: Requirements and Expectations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Throughout this website, emphasis is placed on evaluation as a good management practice that helps managers make informed decisions. Ideally, offices are motivated to undertake evaluation-related...

  16. Programs Planning to Do Evaluations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Better Buildings Neighborhood Program Data and Evaluation Peer Exchange Call: Programs Planning to Do Evaluations, Call Slides and Discussion Summary, August 2, 2012.

  17. A=3, 2010 evaluation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 (2010PU04) (Revised Manuscript from 2010) An evaluation of A = 3 was published in Nuclear Physics A848 (2010) p. 1. The version here differs from the published version in that we have corrected a few errors discovered after the article went to press. PDF HTML A = 3 3n, 3H, 3He, 3Li Adobe Reader Download Last modified: 01

  18. A Framework for Evaluating R&D Impacts and Supply Chain Dynamics...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... These practices include connectedness, frequent and incremental forecasting of demand ... of new or improved performance characteristics and functions, or reduced costs, or both. ...

  19. An Evaluation of Unsaturated Flow Models in an Arid Climate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dixon, J.

    1999-12-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of two unsaturated flow models in arid regions. The area selected for the study was the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site in Nye County, Nevada. The two models selected for this evaluation were HYDRUS-1D [Simunek et al., 1998] and the SHAW model [Flerchinger and Saxton, 1989]. Approximately 5 years of soil-water and atmospheric data collected from an instrumented weighing lysimeter site near the RWMS were used for building the models with actual initial and boundary conditions representative of the site. Physical processes affecting the site and model performance were explored. Model performance was based on a detailed sensitivity analysis and ultimately on storage comparisons. During the process of developing descriptive model input, procedures for converting hydraulic parameters for each model were explored. In addition, the compilation of atmospheric data collected at the site became a useful tool for developing predictive functions for future studies. The final model results were used to evaluate the capacities of the HYDRUS and SHAW models for predicting soil-moisture movement and variable surface phenomena for bare soil conditions in the arid vadose zone. The development of calibrated models along with the atmospheric and soil data collected at the site provide useful information for predicting future site performance at the RWMS.

  20. Candidate Assembly Statistical Evaluation

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1998-07-15

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) receives aluminum clad spent Material Test Reactor (MTR) fuel from all over the world for storage and eventual reprocessing. There are hundreds of different kinds of MTR fuels and these fuels will continue to be received at SRS for approximately ten more years. SRS''s current criticality evaluation methodology requires the modeling of all MTR fuels utilizing Monte Carlo codes, which is extremely time consuming and resource intensive. Now that amore » significant number of MTR calculations have been conducted it is feasible to consider building statistical models that will provide reasonable estimations of MTR behavior. These statistical models can be incorporated into a standardized model homogenization spreadsheet package to provide analysts with a means of performing routine MTR fuel analyses with a minimal commitment of time and resources. This became the purpose for development of the Candidate Assembly Statistical Evaluation (CASE) program at SRS.« less