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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
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1

Evaluation of a Dynamical Basis for Advance Forecasting of the Date of Onset of Monsoon Rainfall over India  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The onset of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) represents one of the most dramatic transitions in the regional circulation pattern. The onset also marks the beginning of the main rainy season for India; advanced and accurate forecast of the date of ...

P. Goswami; K. C. Gouda

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

3

Date  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

award of the (Date) ENERGY STAR: Plant name Plant street address Plant city, state, zip code As documented by the attached Statement of Energy Performance, I affirm that the...

4

Dates  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Dates Dates Nature Bulletin No. 511-A December 15, 1973 Forest Preserve District of Cook County George W. Dunne, President Roland F. Eisenbeis, Supt. of Conservation DATES When the wise men from the east, guided by a mysterious new star, traveled to Jerusalem and thence to Bethlehem where they worshipped the infant Jesus and presented Him with gifts, you can be sure that, in addition to gold and frankincense and myrrh, they carried dates as food to sustain them on their long journey. The Date Palm had been cultivated along the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers since the time of the Sumerians, 3000 years before the birth of Christ. This tree, like the coconut palm, is unknown today in its wild state but is believed to have originated in Ethiopia. In early times it was abundant in Palestine and the scientific name, Phoenix, given to the date palm by the Greeks, may be due to the fact that they first saw it in Phoenicia. The "tree of life, " variously referred to in the Bible, was probably this palm.

5

DATE:  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

DATE: DATE: AUG 12 1991 REPLY TO ATTN OF: EM-421 (J. Wagoner, 3-8147) SUBIECT: Elimination of the Duriron Company Site TO: The File I have reviewed the attached site summary and elimination recommendation for the Duriron Company Site in Dayton, Ohio. I have determined that there is little likelihood of radioactive contamination at this site. Based on the above, the Ouriron Company Site is hereby eliminated from further consideration under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program. W. Ale~ander~illiams,~PhD Designation and Certification Manager Off-Site Branch Division of Eastern Area Programs Office of Environmental Restoration Attachment -: bee: Weston EM-40 (2) P. Hevner Review: - OTS NOTE DATE: July 15, 1991 TO: Alexander WiTliams FROM: Dan Stou tF

6

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

9 9 DATE: April 25, 2011 TO: Procurement Directors FROM: Director, Policy Division Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Federal Awardee Performance and Integrity Information System (FAPIIS) - Public Access SUMMARY: On April 15, 2011, the public side of the Federal Awardee Performance and Integrity Information System (FAPIIS) website was launched. This means that information posted to FAPIIS on and after this date, with the exception of past performance reviews, will be accessible by the public. Public access to information posted to FAPIIS prior to April 15, 2011, will be subject to the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. (See paragraph (b)(3) of

7

DATE:  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

-RL5- DATE: September 13, 1990 TO: Alexander Williams (w 39 fusrap6 I FROM: Ed Mitchellzm SUBJECT: Elimination Recommendation for American Machine and Foundry in New York City The purpose of this note is to provide the following with respect to the former American Machine and Foundry Company (AMF) in New York City, New York--FUSRAP Considered Site Recommendation (g/13/90). 1 he recommendation is to eliminate the AMF New York City sites. If you agree, then please return an "approved" and dated copy of this note. Upon receipt of it, we will update the Considered-Sites Data Base for FUSRAP of DOE's intent to eliminate the site. Please call me at 353-1281 if you have +ny questions. cc: J. Wagoner D. Tonkay file FUSRAP NY.59 -------------------------------~---------------------------

8

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

4 4 DATE: May 12, 2011 TO: Procurement Directors FROM: Director, Policy Division Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Acquisition Letter AL 2011-05/Financial Acquisition Letter FAL 2011-01 Congressional Notification of Pending Award of a Contract Action, Announcement of Selected Applications for Negotiation of Financial Assistance Awards, or to Award a Financial Assistance Action in excess of $1 Million SUMMARY: AL 2011-05/FAL 2011-01 (AL/FAL) implements statutory and non-statutory Congressional notification of pending award of a contract action, announcement of selected applications for negotiation of financial assistance awards, or to award a financial assistance

9

Date  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

3, 2009 3, 2009 Tim Meeks, Administrator Western Area Power Administration P.O. Box 281213 Lakewood, CO 80228-8213 Dear Administrator Meeks: East River Electric Power Cooperative, Inc. (East River) offers this letter as comment to the Western Area Power Administration's (Western) Federal Register Notice (FRN), (dated March 4, 2009, pp.9392-9393) concerning implementation of Western's new transmission loan or construction authority. East River is a wholesale electric power supply cooperative which provides twenty rural electric cooperatives and one municipal electric system transmission and power supply services. These twenty-one non-profit retail electric providers, which collectively own East River, serve about 90,000 residential, commercial

10

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

53 53 DATE: May 15, 2013 TO: Procurement Directors FROM: Director Contract and Financial Assistance Policy Division Office of Policy Office of Acquisition and Project Management SUBJECT: Implementation of Division F, Title I, Title II, and Title III and Division G, Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act, 2013, Pub. L. No.113-6 SUMMARY: Acquisition Letter (AL) 2013-06 and Financial Assistance Letter (FAL) 2013-04 provides implementing instructions and guidance for Division F, Title I, Title II, and Title III and Division G, Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act, 2013, Pub. L. No.113-6. The AL addresses the following: Appropriations Act Section 301(a) Unfunded Requests for Proposals

11

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

POLICY FLASH 2013-12 POLICY FLASH 2013-12 DATE: December 7, 2012 TO: Procurement Directors FROM: Director Contract and Financial Assistance Policy Division Office of Policy Office of Acquisition and Project Management SUBJECT: Section 301(b) Congressional Notification of Multi-year Contract Award Report Revision for Fiscal Year 2013 SUMMARY: With reference to Acquisition Letter (AL) 2012-08 and Financial Assistance Letter (FAL) 2012-02 regarding Section 301(b) Congressional Notification of Multi-year Contract Award, the spreadsheet is revised for Fiscal Year (FY) 2013 reporting. The revised spreadsheet will now have 5 funding columns that must be filled in for each 301(b) notification instead of 4 columns. The amounts in columns I through L should equal to the

12

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

2- 36 2- 36 DATE: April 23, 2012 TO: Procurement Directors FROM: Director, Policy Division Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Implementation of Division B, Title III, Title V and Division C Title VII, Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2012, Pub. L. No.112- 74 and Related Conference Report SUMMARY: Acquisition Letter (AL) 2012-08 and Financial Assistance Letter (FAL) 2012-01 provides implementing instructions and guidance for Division B, Title III, Title V and Division C Title VII, Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2012, Pub. L. No.112-74 and Related Conference Report. The AL addresses the following: Appropriations Act * Section 301(a) Unfunded Requests for Proposals

13

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

22 22 DATE: February 1, 2012 TO: Procurement Directors FROM: Director, Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Acquisition Letter AL 2012-07/Financial Acquisition Letter FAL 2012-01 Congressional Notification of Pending Award of a Contract Action, Announcement of Selected Applications for Negotiation of Financial Assistance Awards, or to Award a Financial Assistance Action in Excess of $1 Million SUMMARY: AL 2012-07/FAL 2012-01 (AL/FAL) implements statutory Congressional notification of pending award of a contract action, announcement of selected applications for negotiation of financial assistance awards, or to award a financial assistance action in excess of $1 million. The total value of the award includes options, budget periods and cost share. The

14

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

EC Document No.: DOE-ID-INL-09-002 EC Document No.: DOE-ID-INL-09-002 SECTION A. Project Title: Smoking Shelters SECTION B. Project Description. Install up to three prefabricated outdoor shelters for smokers. Design and install a shelter base so that shelters can be movable. The base shall be designed to prevent shelters from moving or tipping over due to high winds. Specific location for shelters is to be determined, but the shelter bases will be placed atop existing concrete or asphalt such that no subsurface soil disturbance is expected. SECTION C. Environmental Aspects / Potential Sources of Impact none SECTION D. Determine the Level of Environmental Review (or Documentation) and Reference(s): Identify the applicable categorical exclusion from 10 CFR 1021, Appendix B, give the appropriate justification, and the approval date..

15

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

3-45 3-45 DATE: April 16, 2013 TO: Procurement Directors FROM: Director Contract and Financial Assistance Policy Division Office of Policy Office of Acquisition and Project Management SUBJECT: DOE Acquisition Guide Chapter 15.1 Source Selection Guide SUMMARY: Attached is a revised Source Selection Guide. The Guide has been updated to reflect changes to DOE policies and practices and includes new topics such as Flow of the Source Selection Process, Source Selection Official Designation, Confidentiality and Conflict of Interest Certificates, Source Selection Training and Roles and Responsibilities. This Flash and its attachments will be available online within a day, at the following website: http://energy.gov/management/office-management/operational-

16

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

EC Document No.: DOE-ID-INL-09-002 EC Document No.: DOE-ID-INL-09-002 SECTION A. Project Title: Smoking Shelters SECTION B. Project Description. Install up to three prefabricated outdoor shelters for smokers. Design and install a shelter base so that shelters can be movable. The base shall be designed to prevent shelters from moving or tipping over due to high winds. Specific location for shelters is to be determined, but the shelter bases will be placed atop existing concrete or asphalt such that no subsurface soil disturbance is expected. SECTION C. Environmental Aspects / Potential Sources of Impact none SECTION D. Determine the Level of Environmental Review (or Documentation) and Reference(s): Identify the applicable categorical exclusion from 10 CFR 1021, Appendix B, give the appropriate justification, and the approval date..

17

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

61 61 DATE: June 19, 2013 TO: Procurement Directors FROM: Director Policy Division Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy Office of Acquisition and Project Management SUBJECT: The Whistleblower Protection Enhancement Act of 2012 and How It Affects Federal Employee Non-Disclosure Policies, Forms, Certificates, Agreements and Acknowledgments SUMMARY: Acquisition Letter (AL) 2013-08 and Financial Assistance Letter (FAL) 2013-05 provide Contracting Officers with notice of the recently passed, Whistleblower Protection Enhancement Act of 2012 (WPEA), Pub.L. 112- 199, and the DOECAST issued in response on April 24, 2013. This AL/FAL informs DOE/NNSA Contracting Officers to update any Non-Disclosure Policies, Forms, Certificates, Agreements, and Acknowledgements

18

DATE:  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

a? a? ,itbd States Government memorandum Department of Energy DATE: APR 15 893 REPLY TO EM-421 (W. Williams, 903-8149) ATTN OF: Authorization for Remedial Action at the Former Associate Aircraft Site in SUBJECT: Fairfield, Ohio TO: W. Seay, DOE Oak Ridge Field Office The former Associate Aircraft Tool and Manufacturing, Inc., site at 3660 Dixie Highway, Fairfield, Ohio, is designated for remedial action under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Force Control Industries is the current occupant of the site. This designation is based on the results of radiological surveys and conclusions from an authority review. Copies of the radiological survey reports and the authority review are provided for information. The site has been assigned a low priority under the FUSRAP protocol. The

19

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

POLICY FLASH 2011-96 POLICY FLASH 2011-96 DATE: August 19, 2011 TO: Procurement Directors FROM: Director, Policy Division Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: RFP Section H Clause Templates SUMMARY: On May 3, 2011, twenty two draft Section H clause templates were distributed for Procurement Director (PD), Head of Contracting Activity (HCA), General Counsel and National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) review and comment. All comments received were considered and changes were made as appropriate including the elimination of six clauses. The final version of the sixteen RFP Section H clause templates identified below will be available in STRIPES. 1) COMPLIANCE WITH INTERNET PROTOCOL VERSION 6 (IPV6) IN ACQUIRING

20

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

8 8 DATE: April 25, 2011 TO: Procurement Directors FROM: Director, Policy Division Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Implementation of Division B, Title I, Section 1101(a)(2) of the Department of Defense and Full-Year Continuing Appropriations Act, 2011 SUMMARY: Acquisition Letter 2011-04 provides implementing instructions and guidance for Section 1101(a)(2) of the Full-Year Continuing Appropriations Act of 2011, Pub. L. 112-10 (hereinafter "Full-Year Continuing Appropriations Act of 2011). Section 1101(a)(2) of the Act provides that, unless otherwise specified, the authority and conditions provided for projects or activities (including the costs of direct loans and loan guarantees) appropriated, authorized, or

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

DATE:  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

OOE F 1325.3 OOE F 1325.3 m e m o randum DATE: SEP 23 1988 Department of Energy IL_. 9 REPLY TO AlTN OF, NE-23 SUElJECT. Owner Searches for Potential Sites in Chicago IL, (7 TO: W . Cottrell, ORNL 0. Kozlouski, OTS W h ile in Chicago, Illinois, on September 13, 14, and 15, 1988, I drove to the suspected addresses of several potential FUSRAP sites. No owners were contacted during this activity because most of the work was done after normal working hours or while on the way to the airport when tim e would not permit the visit. I .?I ' - Former C-B Tool Products Co. 956 E. 58th Street Chicago, Illinois The University of Chicago Ingleside Hall is located at this address. It is the University O ffice of Employment and contains a U.S. Post O ffice. The structure is several stories and looks like it may have existed in the

22

The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this “forecast gap.” Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...

2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

23

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

24

Forecasting overview  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the “naďve method”), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...

Marion P. Mittermaier

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the U.S. National Weather Service  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast verification in operational hydrology has been very limited to date, mainly due to the complexity of verifying both forcing input forecasts and hydrologic forecasts on multiple space–time scales. However, forecast verification needs to ...

Julie Demargne; Mary Mullusky; Kevin Werner; Thomas Adams; Scott Lindsey; Noreen Schwein; William Marosi; Edwin Welles

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

Actual Date of Delivery Deliverable Security Class  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This document provides an overview of all NoAH components, defines their requirements and describes the interface between them. The NoAH architecture, as described so far, is a set of individual components that cooperate to form a farm of distributed honeypots. Although the main NoAH components –low- and highinteraction honeypots, signature generation,

unknown authors

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

30

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...

31

Categorical Exclusion (CX) Determinations By Date | Department...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Categorical Exclusion Determination Gulf of Mexico 3-Dimensional Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Project (Portland) CX(s) Applied: A9 Date: 03012010 Location(s):...

32

Categorical Exclusion (CX) Determinations By Date | Department...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Categorical Exclusion Determination Gulf of Mexico 3-Dimensional Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Project (Los Angeles) CX(s) Applied: A9 Date: 03012010 Location(s):...

33

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

34

Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts—a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...

Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher

1987-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Forecast Combinations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models’ forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains

Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Sampling Errors in Seasonal Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The limited numbers of start dates and ensemble sizes in seasonal forecasts lead to sampling errors in predictions. Defining the magnitude of these sampling errors would be useful for end users as well as informing decisions on resource ...

Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

38

Forecast error metrics for Navy inventory management performance .  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This research establishes metrics for determining overall Navy secondary inventory forecasting accuracy when compared to actual demands at the Naval Inventory Control Point (NAVICP). Specifically,… (more)

Jackson, Kenneth J.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

FROM ANALYSTS ' EARNINGS FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We examine the accuracy and bias of intrinsic equity prices estimated from three accounting-based valuation models using analyst’s earnings forecasts over a four-year horizon. The models are: (a) the earnings capitalization model, (b) the residual income model without a terminal value, and (c) the residual income model with a terminal value that assumes residual income will grow beyond the horizon at a constant rate determined from the expected residual income growth rate over the forecast horizon. Our analysis is based on valuation errors that are calculated by comparing estimated prices to actual prices. We contribute to the literature by examining whether: (i) the analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book value and dividends, (ii) the use of firm specific growth rates in terminal value calculations results in more unbiased and accurate valuations than the use of constant growth rates, and (iii) different models perform better under different ex-ante conditions. We find that analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book values and dividends. Each of the models that we used has valuation errors that decline monotonically as the horizon increases implying that earnings forecasts at each horizon convey new value relevant information. We cannot find a clear advantage to using firm specific growth rates instead of a constant rate of 4 % across all sample

Theodore Sougiannis; Takashi Yaekura

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Issue Date: Expiration Date:  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Discussion: Enclosed for your review and comment are the draft revisions to the FSME Procedure SA-103, Reviewing the Common Indicator, Technical Staffing and Training. SA-103 procedure describes the process and guidelines to be used by IMPEP team members when reviewing the adequacy of an NRC Region or State’s program for the staffing and training of technical personnel. We would appreciate receiving your comments within 30 days from the date of this letter. If you have any questions regarding this communication, please contact me at 301-415-3340 or the individual named below.

Training; Robert J. Lewis; Robert J. Lewis; A. Duncan White

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest Inventory.brewer@forestry.gsi.gov.uk Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume

43

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

44

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast

Greenslade, Diana

45

Forecasting Resource Supply from Scarcity Rent Data  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasting Resource Supply from Scarcity Rent Data Speaker(s): Larry Dale Date: December 18, 2000 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar HostPoint of Contact: Diana Morris This talk...

46

Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...

W. Y. Chen

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

Impact of Early Forecast Information Sharing on Manufacturers with Capacity Uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

251 Impact of Early Forecast Information Sharing on Manufacturers with Capacity Uncertainty of future demand. Advanced forecast information sharing between buyer and seller about these demand patterns) manufacturers receive an early rough forecast with a deterministic due date, however, forecast revisions

Chinnam, Ratna Babu

48

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons

49

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

50

MEMORANDUfl DATE  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

DATE DATE cl e-w --we-- SUBJECT: __------------------------ _ OWNER (S) -----w-e Pamt a __---------------------- current: -------------------_______ Owner contacted 0 yes 0 no; if yes, date contacted --------w-w-- TYPE OF OPERATION ------------- erearch & Development a Facility Typr Praduction scale trstinq Pilot Scale Bench Seal e Process Theoretical Studies Sample & Analysis n Production 0 Disposal/Storage TYPE OF CONTRACT ---------------- 0 Prim* 7z Subcontract& Purchase Order . Mmuf l cturing University Research Organization Government Sponsored Facility Rther ----B.-------------- 0 Othrr information (i.e., cost + fixrd fee, unit prier, time 81 material, rte) -m-M--- -------------------------- ---------------------------- Contract/Purchase Order M

51

MEMORANDUM DATE  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

DATE DATE :;++, -m--s B-w- -w---m-- SUBJECT: , ::;:: JLLiucd ALTERN&TE e---e---- --------------------------- CITY&da NCIME: ---------------------- - --------------------- J&f STATE: OWNER ( S 1 -----m-e Past 0 Current: ------------------------ Owner contacted 0 -------------------------- 0 yes no; if ye=, date contacted ------w---s-- TYPE OF OPERATION ----w------------ F Research & Development 0 Facility Type 0 Production scale testing F Pilot Scale 0 Manufacturing 0 Bench Scale Process 0 University Research 0 Theoretical 0 Organization Studies 0 Sample & Analysis 0 Government Sponsored Facility 0 Other --------------------- 0 Production 0 Disposal/Storage TYPE OF CONTRfiCT a--------------- 0 Prim- 0 Subcontract& s Purchase Order

52

Forecast Bias Correction: A Second Order Method  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The difference between a model forecast and actual observations is called forecast bias. This bias is due to either incomplete model assumptions and/or poorly known parameter values and initial/boundary conditions. In this paper we discuss a method for estimating corrections to parameters and initial conditions that would account for the forecast bias. A set of simple experiments with the logistic ordinary differential equation is performed using an iterative version of a first order version of our method to compare with the second order version of the method.

Crowell, Sean

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

Forecasting in Meteorology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...

C. S. Ramage

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

54

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Figure 9: Two Alternative Price Forecasts (denoted by openComparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast toNYMEX Futures Prices Date: December 6, 2006 Introduction On

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

56

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

57

Release Date: April 2010  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

April 2010 DOE/EIA-0121 (2009/04Q) April 2010 DOE/EIA-0121 (2009/04Q) Next Release Date: June 2010 Quarterly Coal Report October - December 2009 April 2010 U.S. Energy Information Administration Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric, and Alternate Fuels U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 _____________________________________________________________________________ This report is available on the Web at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/quarterly/qcr.pdf _____________________________________________ This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this

58

USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING Roy MENDELSSOHN! ABSTRACT Box·Jenkins models are suggested as appropriate models for forecasting fishery dynamics in Hawaii. An actual 12-month forecast is shown to give a reasonable fit to the observed data. Most

59

DATE: TO:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

28 28 - DATE: TO: v POLICY FLASH 2008-28 February 19,2008 Procurement Directors Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, MA41 Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Acquisition Letter (AL) 2008-06, Domestic and Foreign Procurement Preference Requirements SUMMARY: AL 2008-06 (attached) replaces AL 2002-06, dated 08/14/02, "Domestic and Foreign Procurement Preference Rules," which is hereby canceled. AL 2002-06 disseminated deviations to FAR provisions and clauses relating to foreign acquisition for use by Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), and Power Marketing Administration (PMA) contracting activities. This new AL provides updated deviations to the FAR provisions and clauses for use by DOE,

60

DATE: TO:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

41 41 4 DATE: TO: September 2,2008 Procurement Directors Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, MA-61 Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Federal Procurement Data System Coding (FPDS) for Hurricane Gustav SUMMARY: An emergency declaration was made in preparation for Hurricane Gustav. The effective date for this declaration was August 29,2008. FPDS has been updated to include Hurricane Gustav as a choice in the data field "National Interest Action." When making an award to support the emergency, please ensure FPDS is properly coded. This Flash will be available online within a day, at the following website: http://www.rnananement.ener~y.~ov/policy guidance/policy flasheshtm. Questions concerning this policy flash should be

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...

62

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

63

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

64

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

65

Date Event  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Timeline of DOE's review of the Solyndra Loan Guarantee Application Timeline of DOE's review of the Solyndra Loan Guarantee Application Date Event 2005 Title XVII Loan Guarantee Program created (as part of EPAct 2005) Aug. 8, 2006 DOE issues solicitation seeking pre-applications for Title XVII loan guarantees Dec. 28, 2006 Solyndra submits pre-application, seeking funding for its Fab 1 manufacturing facility April - June 2007 DOE conducts financial and technical review of Solyndra pre-application Oct. 4, 2007 DOE invites Solyndra, and 15 other applicants, to submit full applications May 6, 2008 Company submits full application, seeking funding for its Fab 2 manufacturing facility. DOE begins due diligence. Sept. 4, 2008 DOE loan programs staff draft memorandum indicating that Solyndra was the "earliest mover" and may receive conditional commitment by January 16, 2009

66

New ZealandWORKING PAPER No. 12/2010 Are Forecast Updates Progressive?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Macro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average, as the actual value is approached. Otherwise, forecast updates would be neutral. The paper proposes a methodology to test whether forecast updates are progressive and whether econometric models are useful in updating forecasts. The data set for the empirical analysis are for Taiwan, where we have three decades of quarterly data available of forecasts and updates of the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate. The actual series for both the inflation rate and the real GDP growth rate are always released by the government one quarter after the release of the revised forecast, and the actual values are not revised after they have been released. Our empirical results suggest that the forecast updates for Taiwan are progressive, and can be explained predominantly by intuition. Additionally, the one-, two- and three-quarter forecast errors are predictable using publicly available information for both the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate, which suggests that the forecasts can be improved.

Chia-lin Chang; Philip Hans Franses; Michael Mcaleer; Chia-lin Chang; Philip Hans Franses; Michael Mcaleer

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

How can Weather-Forecasting Facilitate the Improvement of Moist...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather-Forecasting Facilitate the Improvement of Moist Processes in Climate Models? Speaker(s): Stephen A. Klein Date: May 22, 2008 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar HostPoint...

68

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

69

Verifying Forecasts Spatially  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...

Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...

André Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

71

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

72

Time Series and Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...

73

Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.

Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sřrensen

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

75

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

76

Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role of forecasts for irrigation scheduling in a more effective way.

Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

2011-09-29T23:59:59.000Z

77

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

78

Business forecasting methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

ORNL integrated forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.

Rizy, C.G.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

BUDGET KEY DATES  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

BUDGET KEY DATES. For Immediate Release: December 15, 2009. Contact: Diane Belford 301-975-8400. Budget Key Dates.

2013-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

82

forecast | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...

83

Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville

Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts,” Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

Date | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Properties of type "Date" Properties of type "Date" Showing 47 properties using this type. A Property:ASHRAE 169 End Date Property:ASHRAE 169 Start Date B Property:Building/EndPeriod Property:Building/StartPeriod Property:Building/YearConstruction Property:Building/YearConstruction1 Property:Building/YearConstruction2 Property:Buildings/ModelYear Property:Buildings/PublicationYear C Property:CommercialOnlineDate D Property:DSIRE/LstUpdt E Property:EndDate Property:EndYear Property:EnergyAccessYearInitiated Property:Event/Date Property:ExpActivityDate E cont. Property:ExpActivityDateEnd F Property:File/CreationDate Property:FirstWellDate G Property:GEAReportDate Property:Geothermal/FY Property:Geothermal/ProjectEndDate Property:Geothermal/ProjectStartDate H Property:HPBD/DateOfOccupancy I Property:Incentive/DsireLstSubModSummaryUpdt

87

Global and Local Skill Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...

P. L. Houtekamer

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water

89

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

90

Does the term structure forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-

Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...

Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

Composite forecasting in commodity systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The

Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

Net Interchange Schedule Forecasting of Electric Power Exchange for RTO/ISOs  

SciTech Connect

Neighboring independent system operators (ISOs) exchange electric power to enable efficient and reliable operation of the grid. Net interchange (NI) schedule is the sum of the transactions (in MW) between an ISO and its neighbors. Effective forecasting of the amount of actual NI can improve grid operation efficiency. This paper presents results of a preliminary investigation into various methods of prediction that may result in improved prediction accuracy. The methods studied are linear regression, forward regression, stepwise regression, and support vector machine (SVM) regression. The work to date is not yet conclusive. The hope is to explore the effectiveness of other prediction methods and apply all methods to at least one new data set. This should enable more confidence in the conclusions.

Ferryman, Thomas A.; Haglin, David J.; Vlachopoulou, Maria; Yin, Jian; Shen, Chao; Tuffner, Francis K.; Lin, Guang; Zhou, Ning; Tong, Jianzhong

2012-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

94

Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...

Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

Evaluating Point Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...

Gneiting, Tilmann

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

96

Forecasters ’ Objectives and Strategies ?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.

Iván Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sřrensen

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...

Dean P. Gulezian

1981-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

A Comparison of Forecast Error Generators for Modeling Wind and Load Uncertainty  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents four algorithms to generate random forecast error time series, including a truncated-normal distribution model, a state-space based Markov model, a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, and a stochastic-optimization based model. The error time series are used to create real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast time series that statistically match historically observed forecasting data sets, used for variable generation integration studies. A comparison is made using historical DA load forecast and actual load values to generate new sets of DA forecasts with similar stoical forecast error characteristics. This paper discusses and compares the capabilities of each algorithm to preserve the characteristics of the historical forecast data sets.

Lu, Ning; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.

2013-12-18T23:59:59.000Z

99

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

Mohaghegh, Shahab

100

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.

Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

103

LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts

Feinberg, Eugene A.

104

Factors Driving Prices & Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...

105

Modeling and Forecasting Aurora  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.

Dirk Lummerzheim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

108

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): “OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner, G. , and U. K.2005): “Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

Forecasting in the Presence of Level Shifts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 : 537-560. Hamilton JD.430. Harvey AC. 1989. Forecasting, structural time seriesMH, Timmermann A. 1994. Forecasting stock returns: An

Smith, Aaron

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

110

Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill  

SciTech Connect

We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2012-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

111

Free World energy survey: historical overview and long-term forecast  

SciTech Connect

This report gives a historical overview of international energy markets from the 1950s to date, and an analysis of future energy prices, economic growth, and potential supply instabilities. Forecasts of energy demand by region and fuel type are provided.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Wind forecasting objectives for utility schedulers and energy traders  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The wind energy industry and electricity producers can benefit in a number of ways from increased wind forecast accuracy. Higher confidence in the reliability of wind forecasts can help persuade an electric utility to increase the penetration of wind energy into its operating system and to augment the capacity value of wind electric generation. Reliable forecasts can also assist daily energy traders employed by utilities in marketing the available and anticipated wind energy to power pools and other energy users. As the number of utilities with wind energy experience grows, and wind energy penetration levels increase, the need for reliable wind forecasts will likely grow as well. This period of wind energy growth also coincides with advances in computer weather prediction technology that could lead to more accurate wind forecasts. Thus, it is important to identify the type of forecast information needed by utility schedulers and energy traders. This step will help develop approaches to the challenge of wind forecasting that will result in useful products being supplied to utilities or other energy generating entities. This paper presents the objectives, approach, and current findings of a US Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory (DOE/NREL) initiative to develop useful wind forecasting tools for utilities involved with wind energy generation. The focus of this initiative thus far has been to learn about the needs of prospective utility users. NREL representatives conducted a series of onsite interviews with key utility staff, usually schedulers and research planners, at seven US utilities. The purpose was to ascertain information on actual scheduling and trading procedures, and how utilities could integrate wind forecasting into these activities.

Schwartz, M.N. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States); Bailey, B.H. [AWS Scientific, Inc., Albany, NY (United States)

1998-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The importance of fog forecasting to the aviation community, to road transportation and to the public at large is irrefutable. The deadliest aviation accident in history was in fact partly a result of fog back on 27 March 1977. This has, along with numerous less dramatic examples, helped focus many meteorological efforts into trying to forecast this phenomenon as accurately as possible. Until recently, methods of fog forecasting have relied primarily on the forecaster's ability to recognize surface weather patterns known to be favorable for producing fog and once it has formed, to state that it will persist unless the pattern changes. Unfortunately, while such methods have shown some success, many times they have led weather forecasters astray with regards to the onset and dissipation of the phenomenon. Fortunately, now with computers becoming ever-increasingly powerful, numerical models have been utilized to attempt to more accurately deal with the fog forecasting problem. This study uses a 1 dimensional model called COBEL to simulate several past fog cases in the hopes of mimicking its actual occurrence and determining what weather parameters the fog is most sensitive to. The goal is to create a technique where the weather forecaster will be able to run several fog forecasts with the model each time with different initial conditions representing the uncertain weather conditions. In this way, the forecaster will be able to use his expertise to choose the most likely scenario. Results indicate that COBEL is able to simulate the fog cases quite well. Issues remain with the model's handling of the gravitational settling rate, the fact that it currently does not include any vegetation, and its coupling process with the soil model. Nevertheless, simulations and sensitivity tests indicate that soil temperature, soil moisture, low-level winds, initial relative humidity, dew deposition and surface emissivity are the weather parameters that affect fog the most. These parameters will be prime candidates for the 1 dimensional ensemble (ODEP) technique described above.

Peyraud, Lionel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Density Forecasting for Long-Term Peak Electricity Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Long-term electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in planning for future generation facilities and transmission augmentation. In a long-term context, planners must adopt a probabilistic view of potential peak demand levels. Therefore density forecasts (providing estimates of the full probability distributions of the possible future values of the demand) are more helpful than point forecasts, and are necessary for utilities to evaluate and hedge the financial risk accrued by demand variability and forecasting uncertainty. This paper proposes a new methodology to forecast the density of long-term peak electricity demand. Peak electricity demand in a given season is subject to a range of uncertainties, including underlying population growth, changing technology, economic conditions, prevailing weather conditions (and the timing of those conditions), as well as the general randomness inherent in individual usage. It is also subject to some known calendar effects due to the time of day, day of week, time of year, and public holidays. A comprehensive forecasting solution is described in this paper. First, semi-parametric additive models are used to estimate the relationships between demand and the driver variables, including temperatures, calendar effects and some demographic and economic variables. Then the demand distributions are forecasted by using a mixture of temperature simulation, assumed future economic scenarios, and residual bootstrapping. The temperature simulation is implemented through a new seasonal bootstrapping method with variable blocks. The proposed methodology has been used to forecast the probability distribution of annual and weekly peak electricity demand for South Australia since 2007. The performance of the methodology is evaluated by comparing the forecast results with the actual demand of the summer 2007–2008.

Rob J. Hyndman; Shu Fan

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

115

How People Actually Use Thermostats  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Residential thermostats have been a key element in controlling heating and cooling systems for over sixty years. However, today's modern programmable thermostats (PTs) are complicated and difficult for users to understand, leading to errors in operation and wasted energy. Four separate tests of usability were conducted in preparation for a larger study. These tests included personal interviews, an on-line survey, photographing actual thermostat settings, and measurements of ability to accomplish four tasks related to effective use of a PT. The interviews revealed that many occupants used the PT as an on-off switch and most demonstrated little knowledge of how to operate it. The on-line survey found that 89% of the respondents rarely or never used the PT to set a weekday or weekend program. The photographic survey (in low income homes) found that only 30% of the PTs were actually programmed. In the usability test, we found that we could quantify the difference in usability of two PTs as measured in time to accomplish tasks. Users accomplished the tasks in consistently shorter times with the touchscreen unit than with buttons. None of these studies are representative of the entire population of users but, together, they illustrate the importance of improving user interfaces in PTs.

Meier, Alan; Aragon, Cecilia; Hurwitz, Becky; Mujumdar, Dhawal; Peffer, Therese; Perry, Daniel; Pritoni, Marco

2010-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

116

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast

117

European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind Generation by a Dynamic  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind forecasting. I. INTRODUCTION HE actual large-scale integration of wind energy in several European countries enhance the position of wind energy compared to other dispatchable forms of generation. Predicting

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

118

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

Mohaghegh, Shahab

119

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW

120

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

122

3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 3, 2145­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC ­ Department­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

123

4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OSD 4, 189­212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

124

FINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

predecessors to forecast stock prices and manage portfolios for approximately 3 years.) We examineFINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS SAM MAHFOUD and GANESH MANI LBS Capital Management entitled Genetic Algorithms for Inductive Learning). Time-series forecasting is a special type

Boetticher, Gary D.

125

Forecast of auroral activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting

A. T. Y. Lui

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

Subhourly wind forecasting techniques for wind turbine operations  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Three models for making automated forecasts of subhourly wind and wind power fluctuations were examined to determine the models' appropriateness, accuracy, and reliability in wind forecasting for wind turbine operation. Such automated forecasts appear to have value not only in wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine operating strategies (such as determining when to attempt startup). A simple persistence model, an autoregressive model, and a generalized equivalent Markhov (GEM) model were developed and tested using spring season data from the WKY television tower located near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The three models represent a pure measurement approach, a pure statistical method and a statistical-dynamical model, respectively. Forecasting models of wind speed means and measures of deviations about the mean were developed and tested for all three forecasting techniques for the 45-meter level and for the 10-, 30- and 60-minute time intervals. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a persistence-based approach, using onsite measurements, will probably be superior in the 10-minute time frame. The GEM model appears to have the most potential in 30-minute and longer time frames, particularly when forecasting wind speed fluctuations. However, several improvements to the GEM model are suggested. In comparison to the other models, the autoregressive model performed poorly at all time frames; but, it is recommended that this model be upgraded to an autoregressive moving average (ARMA or ARIMA) model. The primary constraint in adapting the forecasting models to the production of wind turbine cluster power output forecasts is the lack of either actual data, or suitable models, for simulating wind turbine cluster performance.

Wegley, H.L.; Kosorok, M.R.; Formica, W.J.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Information and Inference in Econometrics: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Application: Forecasting Equity Premium . . . . . . . . . .2.6.1 Forecasting4 Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models 4.1

Tu, Yundong

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

Research Highlights Sorted by Submission Date  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Submission Date Submission Date January 2014 Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core Components of Arctic Clouds to Clear Their Influence on Climate ARM ASR Ovink, J. December 2013 Effect of Environmental Instability on the Sensitivity of Convection to the Rimed Ice Species ASR Van Weverberg, K. All Mixed Up-Probing Large and Small Scale Turbulence Structures in Continental Stratocumulus Clouds ARM ASR Fang, M., Albrecht, B. A. Ground Stations Likely Get a Boost from Satellites to Estimate Carbon Dioxide Emissions ARM Roeder, L. R. November 2013 Spectro-microscopic Measurements of Carbonaceous Aerosol Aging in Central California ARM ASR Gilles, M., Moffet, R. Digging Into Climate Models' Needs with SPADE ARM ASR Gustafson, W. I. Nailing Down Ice in a Cloud Model ARM ASR

132

A Comparison of Forecast Error Generators for Modeling Wind and Load Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents four algorithms to generate random forecast error time series. The performance of four algorithms is compared. The error time series are used to create real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast time series that statistically match historically observed forecasting data sets used in power grid operation to study the net load balancing need in variable generation integration studies. The four algorithms are truncated-normal distribution models, state-space based Markov models, seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, and a stochastic-optimization based approach. The comparison is made using historical DA load forecast and actual load values to generate new sets of DA forecasts with similar stoical forecast error characteristics (i.e., mean, standard deviation, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation). The results show that all methods generate satisfactory results. One method may preserve one or two required statistical characteristics better the other methods, but may not preserve other statistical characteristics as well compared with the other methods. Because the wind and load forecast error generators are used in wind integration studies to produce wind and load forecasts time series for stochastic planning processes, it is sometimes critical to use multiple methods to generate the error time series to obtain a statistically robust result. Therefore, this paper discusses and compares the capabilities of each algorithm to preserve the characteristics of the historical forecast data sets.

Lu, Ning; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.

2013-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

133

Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies ’ finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.

Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

134

Chapter 11 Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish between the information set for ‘normal forces ’ and the one for ‘break drivers’, then outline sources of potential information. Relevant non-linear, dynamic models facing multiple breaks can have more candidate variables than observations, so we discuss automatic model selection. As a failure to accurately forecast breaks remains likely, we augment our strategy by modelling breaks during their progress, and consider robust forecasting devices.

Jennifer L. Castle; Nicholas W. P. Fawcett; David F. Hendry

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

135

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or

136

TO: FILE DATE------  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

DATE------ DATE------ la Fp7 ---------__ OWNER(.=) m-----z- Past: -----_------------------ Current: ------------i----------- Owner c:nntacted q ye' s y "0; !' L-----J if yea, date contacted TYPE OF OPERATION -------_------___ 0 Research & Development cl Facility Type 0 Production scale testins 0 Pilot Scale 0 Bench Scale Process E Theoretical Studies Sample SI Analysis [7 Manufacturing i University $ Resear.& Organization Government Sponsored Facility 0 Other -~------------------- 0 Production G Di spo5alfStorage TYPE OF CONTRACT ~------~--~~---- 0 Prime 0 Suhccntractnr 0 Purchase Order q Other information (i.e., crJst + fixed fee, unit price, time & material, etc) ------- ---------------------------- ~Canfrakt/Purchase Order # ----------------___---------

137

Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...

Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

Aviation forecasting and systems analyses  

SciTech Connect

The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.

Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

Studies of inflation and forecasting.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This dissertation contains five research papers in the area of applied econometrics. The two broad themes of the research are inflation and forecasting. The first… (more)

Bermingham, Colin

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

Lew, D.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

On the Prediction of Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, ...

T. N. Palmer; S. Tibaldi

1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...

Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts… (more)

Sakva, Denys

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

What Is the True Value of Forecasts?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to ...

Antony Millner

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The ...

Lance F. Bosart

2003-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

148

Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One goal of weather and climate forecasting is to inform decision making. Effective communication of forecasts to various sectors of the public is essential for meeting that goal, yet studies repeatedly show that forecasts are not well understood ...

Karen Pennesi

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A cloud model ensemble forecasting approach is developed to create forecasts that describe the range and distribution of thunderstorm lifetimes that may be expected to occur on a particular day. Such forecasts are crucial for anticipating severe ...

Kimberly L. Elmore; David J. Stensrud; Kenneth C. Crawford

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 1–4 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, ...

Andreas P. Weigel; Daniel Baggenstos; Mark A. Liniger; Frédéric Vitart; Christof Appenzeller

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

152

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

153

A Forecast for the California Labor Market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

issue for the state. A Forecast for the California Laborto Go? ” The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation andAngeles: UCLA Anderson Forecast: Nation 1.1 – 1.9. Dhawan,

Mitchell, Daniel J. B.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK STAFFREPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400.................................................................................. 9 Sources of Forecast Error....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2

155

Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...

David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

156

Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality of such forecasts can ...

Cristina Primo; Christopher A. T. Ferro; Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

158

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical modeling Celia Frank and Ashish Garg, USA Les Sztandera Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, PA, USA Keywords Apparel, Forecasting average (MA), auto- regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since

Raheja, Amar

159

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

Forecasting Electric Vehicle Costs with Experience Curves  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

April, 5. R 2~1. Dino. "Forecasting the Price Evolution of 1ElectromcProducts," Ioumal of Forecasting, ĄoL4, No I, 1985.costs and a set of forecasting tools that can be refined as

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...

Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both sea ice forecast models and methods to measure their skill are needed for operational sea ice forecasting. Two simple sea ice models are described and tested here. Four different measures of skill are also tested. The forecasts from the ...

Robert W. Grumbine

1998-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.

James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

When professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analyzed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.

Allan W. Gregory; James Yetman; Jel Codes C E; Robert Eggert; Fred Joutz

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

Steam Trap Testing and Evaluation: An Actual Plant Case Study  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

With rising steam costs and a high failure rate on the Joliet Plants standard steam trap, a testing and evaluation program was begun to find a steam trap that would work at Olin-Joliet. The basis was to conduct the test on the actual process equipment and that a minimum life be achieved. This paper deals with the history of the steam system/condensate systems, the setting up of the testing procedure, which traps were and were not tested and the results of the testing program to date.

Feldman, A. L.

1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate… (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Title Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication...

169

Background pollution forecast over bulgaria  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...

D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

Frequency Dependence in Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method is proposed to calculate measures of forecast skill for high, medium and low temporal frequency variations in the atmosphere. This method is applied to a series of 128 consecutive 1 to 10-day forecasts produced at NMC with their ...

H. M. van Den Dool; Suranjana Saha

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

Before Getting There: Potential and Actual Collaboration  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper we introduce the concepts of Actual and Potential Collaboration Spaces. The former applies to the space where collaborative activities are performed, while the second relates to the initial space where opportunities for collaboration are ... Keywords: Doc2U, PIŃAS, casual and informal interactions, potential and actual collaboration spaces, potential collaboration awareness

Alberto L. Morán; Jesús Favela; Ana María Martínez Enríquez; Dominique Decouchant

2002-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

DATE: TO: FROM:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

d d POLICY FLASH 2010-64 DATE: TO: FROM: July 7,201 0 Procurement Directors Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, MA-6 I Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Federal Acquisition Circular 2005-42 SUMMARY: Attached for your information is a summary of Federal Acquisition Circular (FAC) 2005-42 which makes changes to the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR). The FAC has eleven rules (seven final and four interim) and one technical amendment. Attached is a short overview of the rules to include its effective date and applicability date. To view FAC 2005-42 go to the Federal Register Browse web link at http://www.~~oaccess.~ov/fr/browse.html and search for the Federal Register Volume 75, Number 115 for Wednesday, June 16,2010.

173

MEMORANDUfl J: FILE DATE  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

J: FILE DATE J: FILE DATE // //r /so -----------w------m FROM: 9. 34oyc -w--------v----- SUBJECT: D3 Bo;s CL&;C J mL-;+J; - Rcc cap 049 /'A :j$: &336;s L-.fh~ w-f L-1 ALE"nirTE __ ------------- --- ---_------------------ CITY: &u+M- - &. -w---v------ ---B-------w STATE: 0 h' -a---- OWNER(S) --pi::;- l>cl, b af.5 CA.-*>J CD Current: Gr;W i- ~U~&;P~ -------------,,' ,-,,,,-, Owner contacted 0 yes jg no; -------------------------- if yes, date contacted ------m------ TYPE OF OPERATION --w--w----------- & Research & Development a Facility Type 0 Production scale testing Cl Pilot Scale 0 Bench Scale Process 0 Theoretical Studies w Sample & Analysis 0 Manufacturing 0 University 0 Research Organization 0 Government Sponsored Facility

174

History of Radiocarbon Dating  

DOE R&D Accomplishments (OSTI)

The development is traced of radiocarbon dating from its birth in curiosity regarding the effects of cosmic radiation on Earth. Discussed in historical perspective are: the significance of the initial measurements in determining the course of developments; the advent of the low-level counting technique; attempts to avoid low-level counting by the use of isotopic enrichment; the gradual appearance of the environmental effect due to the combustion of fossil fuel (Suess effect); recognition of the atmosphere ocean barrier for carbon dioxide exchange; detailed understanding of the mixing mechanism from the study of fallout radiocarbon; determination of the new half-life; indexing and the assimilation problem for the massive accumulation of dates; and the proliferation of measurement techniques and the impact of archaeological insight on the validity of radiocarbon dates. (author)

Libby, W. F.

1967-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

175

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

176

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast

177

Quantum Dating Market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We consider the dating market decision problem under the quantum mechanics point of view. Quantum states whose associated amplitudes are modified by men strategies are used to represent women. Grover quantum search algorithm is used as a playing strategy. Success is more frequently obtained by playing quantum than playing classic.

O. G. Zabaleta; C. M. Arizmendi

2010-03-04T23:59:59.000Z

178

Date: _______________ Vendor Name: _______________________________  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

: ________________________ City, State, Zip:_______________________ Phone # : __________________ Fax, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance e. ___ Fire Safety-Extinguishing Systems, Bldg. Security Alarm Systems on ReX Released Re-released Faxed to Purchasing Date Initials 6-15-11 REV 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0

Fabrikant, Sara Irina

179

Release Date: August 2010 Next Release Date: August 2011  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Release Date: August 2010 Next Release Date: August 2011 U.S. Energy Information Administration/Renewable Energy Annual 2008 Table 1.14 Total Biomass Electricity Net ...

180

Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l­ Load forecast methodology ­ Drivers of the forecast f i­ Treatment of conservation ­ Incorporating impact of weather ­ Forecast for 2019 #12;Regional Loads (MWA and MW)Regional Loads (MWA and MW

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

182

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia

183

Combining forecast weights: Why and how?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions

Yip Chee Yin; Ng Kok-Haur; Lim Hock-Eam

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY dmitry.kucharavy@insa-strasbourg.fr Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

185

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

186

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form

187

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Techniques for Use in Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Quantitative hydrologic forecasting usually requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. First, it is important to accurately measure the precipitation falling over a particular watershed of interest. Second, ...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Michael D. Hudlow

1984-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates

189

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

190

FROM: DATE: TO:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

DATE: DATE: TO: POLICY FLASH 2010-48 May 06,20 1 0 Procurement Directors Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, MA-6 1 Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Acquisition LetterIFinancial Assistance Letter (ALIFAL) 201 0-06, Acquiring Information Technology, Requirement to Comply With Internet Protocol Version 6 (IPv6) SUMMARY: ALIFAL 201 0-06 provides notice that the Civilian Agency Acquisition Council and the Defense Acquisition Regulations Council are issuing a final rule amending the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) to require that Internet Protocol Version 6 (IPv6) compliant products be included in all new information technology (IT) acquisitions using Internet Protocol (IP). ALIFAL 2010-06, accordingly, updates the IPv6 guidance provided in AL-2006-04.

191

TO: FILE DATE  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

tlEi?ORANDUH tlEi?ORANDUH TO: FILE DATE FFtOil: c ----'- Y '%d 6- ----_----_ SUBJECT: SITE NAME: ----------STATE: Owner contacted 0 yes qno; if yes, date contacted ---------__-- TYPE OF OPERATION ----~_--_--~----_ &Research & Development @ Praduction scale testing. 0 Pilat Scale 0 Bench Scale Process a Theoretical Studies 0 Sample & Analysis tin Facility Type R Manufacturing IJ University 0 Research Organization IJ Gavernment Sponsored Facility 0 Other ----------------' --~- 0 Production E Disposal/Storage TYPE OF CONTRACT ~~_-~--_---_--__ P Prime 0 I Cl Subcontractor Other information (i.e., cost K Purchase Order jZM pati !& MC4 + fixed fee, unit price, time 81 material, etc) ---------------------_----~-- OWNERSHIP: AEC/MED AEC/MED GOVT GOVT

192

HEMORANDUH TO: FILE DATE  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

HEMORANDUH HEMORANDUH TO: FILE DATE 1123 lLjl ---WV-------------- FROM: P. s&w+ -------v-----s-- SUBJECT: lJ+ - e;& SITE NAME: LJo"zL - /L,' de Cd -J--h=- ALTERNATE l --e-e-- ------w------- ---,,,' ,m--, NAME: ---------------------- CITY: LL-pL~ ------------ ------------- STATE3 e--w-- OWNER tS) -----w-- Past I --k-!!.l~ -pa L . -v-----w------- Current: Owner contac?-ed 0 yes 0 no; if yes, I+Lff A zid;&m - -------------------------- date contacted ------B--m--- TYPE OF OPERATION ----------------- a Research 81 Development a Facility Type 0 Production scale testing 0 Pilot Scale 0 Bench Scale Procesr 0 Theoretical Studies 0 Sample & Analysis m Manuf acturinq 0 University 0 Research Organization 0 Government Sponrored Facility 0 Other

193

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-02-09T23:59:59.000Z

194

A. G. A. six-month gas demand forecast July-December, 1984  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Estimates of the total gas demand for 1984 (including pipeline fuel) range from 18,226 to 19,557 trillion (TBtu). The second half of the year shows a slower recovery rate as economic recovery moderates. The forecast show both actual and projected demand by month, and compares it with 1983 demand and by market sector. 6 tables.

Not Available

1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

195

Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

197

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

Fuzzy forecasting with DNA computing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

There are many forecasting techniques including: exponential smoothing, ARIMA model, GARCH model, neural networks and genetic algorithm, etc. Since financial time series may be influenced by many factors, conventional model based techniques and hard ...

Don Jyh-Fu Jeng; Junzo Watada; Berlin Wu; Jui-Yu Wu

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

Scoring Rules for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of probabilistic forecast verification is approached from a theoretical point of view starting from three basic desiderata: additivity, exclusive dependence on physical observations (“locality”), and strictly proper behavior. By ...

Riccardo Benedetti

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Wavelets and Field Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current field forecast verification measures are inadequate, primarily because they compress the comparison between two complex spatial field processes into one number. Discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) applied to analysis and contemporaneous ...

William M. Briggs; Richard A. Levine

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity ...

Peter Lynch

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numerical–statistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value ...

Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near–real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...

Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...

J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...

Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Differences of opinion exist among forecasters—and between forecasters and users—regarding the meaning of the phrase “good (bad) weather forecasts.” These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or understanding concerning the ...

Allan H. Murphy

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, fire managers need ...

Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

DATE: February 7, 1996  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Department of Energy Department of Energy Memorandum DATE: July 8, 2011 Report Number: INS-L-11-02 REPLY TO ATTN OF: IG-40 (S10IS001) SUBJECT: Letter Report on "Implementation of Nuclear Weapons Quality Assurance Requirements at Los Alamos National Laboratory" TO: Manager, Los Alamos Site Office INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE The National Nuclear Security Administration's (NNSA) Los Alamos National Laboratory (Los Alamos) is a multidisciplinary research and production institution responsible for the design and production of nuclear weapons components. In its effort to attain the highest quality in weapons engineering design and manufacturing, the Department of Energy

210

DATE: TO: FROM:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

> POLICY FLASH 2010-25 DATE: TO: FROM: February 22,201 0 Procurement Directors Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, MA-61 Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: DOE Acquisition Guide Chapter 1.4 Establishing the Position of Source Evaluation Board (SEB) Secretariat and Knowledge Manager SUMMARY: As discussed at the December 2009 Procurement Directors' Meeting, a position titled "Source Evaluation Board (SEB) Secretariat and Knowledge Manager" has been established in the Acquisition Planning and Liaison Division, MA-621 Attached is the subject new DOE Acquisition Guide Chapter 1.4 which provides guidance on the establishment of the aforementioned position and the duties and responsibilities of the position.

211

Base Resource Forecasts - Power Marketing - Sierra Nevada Region...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Marketing > Base Resource Forecasts Base Resource Forecasts Note: Annual, rolling (monthly for 12 months), base resource forecasts are posted when they become available. Annual...

212

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...

213

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts

214

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute of89 (1999) 109—129 Forecasting new product penetration with ?

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Overestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a TDM Policy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

M. , Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy.change and social forecasting: the case of telecommuting asOverestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a

Tal, Gil

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

Forecasting US CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

F. Hendry (eds), Economic Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing,W. : 2002, Macroeconomic forecasting using di?usion indexes,2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country

Steinhauser, Ralf; Auffhammer, Maximilian

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

NoVaS Transformations: Flexible Inference for Volatility Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Correlation Forecasting” in G. Elliott, C.W.J.Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland,Transformations”, forthcoming in Forecasting in the Presence

Politis, Dimitris N; Thomakos, Dimitrios D

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute ofchoice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel89 (1999) 109—129 Forecasting new product penetration with

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J.2000), Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J.F.F. (2006), The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability

Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

P, Fitzgerald G: Regression forecasting of patient admissionapproach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergencySJ, Haug PJ, Snow GL: Forecasting daily patient volumes in

Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Forecasting Danerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

costs could alter forecasting skill and the predictors thatForecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofOn-Line Working Paper Series Forecasting Dangerous Inmate

Berk, Richard A.; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, John-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible

Richard A. Berk; Susan B. Sorenson; Yan He

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Goulias Page 84 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:Goulias Page 80 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:L. Demographic Forecasting with a Dynamic Stochastic

Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Goulias, Konstadinos G.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

Light truck forecasts  

SciTech Connect

The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.

Liepins, G.E.

1979-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

225

From: Mark Bolinger and Ryan Wiser, Berkeley Lab (LBNL) Subject: Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices Date: January 4, 2010 1. Introduction, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better

226

DATE: TO: FROM:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

1 < 1 < DATE: TO: FROM: July 1,2010 Procurement Directors Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, MA-61 Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Revised DOE Acquisition Guide Chapter 71.1 Headquarters Business Clearance Process SUMMARY: There was mention in the National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) report titled "Managing at the Speed of Light - Improving Mission Support Performance" that Departmental procurement personnel don't understand the Business Clearance (BC) process. In an effort to address this issue, each Procurement Director (PD) and Head of Contracting Activity (HCA) was ask to review Acquisition Guide Chapter 7 1.1 Headquarters Business Clearance Process and identify anything that was unclear, as well as recommend changes or ideas which

227

DATE: TO: FROM:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

6 6 DATE: TO: FROM: March 25,2010 Procurement Directors Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, MA-61 Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Rescind Policy Flashes 201 0-04 "Cease All Funding of the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN)" and 201 0-06 "Additional Documentation Regarding Policy Flash Number 201 0-04" SUMMARY: The purpose of this flash to inform you that on March 10,201 0, the United States District Court for the Eastern District of New York issued an opinion regarding ACORN. In its opinion, the District Court concluded that the funding prohibitions regarding ACORN and related entities in FY 201 0 Continuing Resolution and in several of FY 201 0 appropriations acts

228

Date: Re: Department  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

~ ~ ~~ Date: Re: Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 April 5, 2007 TRADEMARK l APPLICATION AND LICENSING PROCEDURES, IPI Trademarks may be used by DOE or its contractors for identification of goods and services and serve as an intellectual property tool to enhance technology transfer. Registration in the PTO also helps to ensure that marks closely associated with DOE are not debased or devalued, and also helps to protect the public from those who may use marks closely associated with DOE to suggest "goods or services" are authorized by DOE. This IPI contains guidance on trademarks once the decision has been made to use a particular mark in commerce and obtain protection therefor. This IPI does not contain guidance as to when, in the first instance, a mark should be coined for association with a particular good/service, except at B.4 with respect to use of DOE as part of a mark.

229

J DATE: TO: FROM:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

ICY FLASH 2010-5- - ICY FLASH 2010-5- - J DATE: TO: FROM: June 10,2010 Procurement Directors Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, MA-61 Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: DOE Acquisition Guide Chapter 13 Policy and Operating Procedures for Use of the GSA Smartpay2 Purchase Card SUMMARY: Attached for your information is an updated and revised copy of DOE Acquisition Guide Chapter 13, Purchase Card Policy and Operating Procedures. This Flash and its attachment will be posted online, at the following website: http:llwww.mananement.enerliy.gov/~olicy guidance/policy flashes.htm. Questions concerning this policy flash should be directed to Denise Clarke at (202) 287-1 748 or DeniseT.Clarke@,hq.doe.~ov . Director Office of Procurement and

230

Procurement Directors DATE: TO:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

18 18 1 POLICY FLASH 2008-1 8 January 29,2008 Procurement Directors DATE: TO: FROM: Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, MA-6 1 Ofice of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Federal Acquisition Circular 2008-18 SUMMARY: The General Services Administration has issued Federal Acquisition Circular 2005-23. This Circular can be found at page 732 14 of the December 26,2007 Federal Register. The Circular covers three subjects for which interim or final rules have been issued amending the Federal Acquisition Regulation. A description of each revision is contained in the attachment. None of these necessitates a revision of the DEAR. One of the revisions dealing with the Electronic Product Environmental Assessment Tool (EPEAT) replaces

231

DATE: TO: FROM:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

8 8 December 16,2009 Procurement Directors Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, MA-61 Ofice of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Federal Acquisition Circular 2005-38 SUMMARY: Federal Acquisition Circular 2005-3 8, which makes miscellaneous changes to the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR), was published in the December 10, 2009 issue of the Federal Register. A summary of the changes is attached. Due to the publication of two rules item I11 and item V, additional guidance is provided in this flash. Item I11 - Internet Protocol Version 6 (IPv6) (FAR Case 2005-041) - The Acquisition Letter 2006-04, Acquiring Information Technology - Requirement to Comply with Internet Protocol Version 6, dated December 14,2005, is being reviewed to determine if

232

DATE: TO: FROM:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

65 65 ' July 7,20 1 0 Procurement Directors Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, MA-61 Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Notification of Employee Rights under the National Labor Relations Act SUMMARY: This Flash forwards a draft Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) clause, 52.222- 40, Notification of Employee Rights under the National Labor Relations Act. Executive Order (EO) 13496, Notification of Employee Rights under Federal Labor Laws, dated January 30,2009, requires contractors and subcontractors to post a notice that informs employees of their rights under Federal labor laws, including the National Labor Relations Act. This Act encourages collective bargaining and protects the exercise by workers of their freedom

233

Issuance Date:: February  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

Issuance Issuance Date:: February 11, 1966 POST-SHOT HYDROLOGI C SAFETY 68296 VUF-1014 FINAL REPORT FALLON, NEVADA OCTOBER 26, 1963 Hazleton-Nuclear Science Corporation October 30, 1965 SPONSORED BY THE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY OF THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE AND THE U. S.ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION VELA UNIFORM PROJECT LEG A L NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of Government sponsored work. Neither the United States, nor the Commission, nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission: A. Makes any warranty or representation, expressed or implied, with respect to the accu- racy, completeness, or usefulness of the information contained in this report, or that the use of any information. apparatus, method, or process disclosed in this report may not infringe privately owned rights; or B. Assumes any liabilities with respect to the use of, or for damages resulting from the

234

MEMORANDUM TO: FILE DATE  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

/I // /s 3 /I // /s 3 ------------------- FROM: D. I&+ ---------------- SUBJECT: 5;le r 3-&-F.. SITE /+yNJs l3 ALTERNATE NAME: -w---- -SF ------------------------------ NAME: CITY: c ;A< ;,+,ZJ+ ------------,-L-----,,,,,, STATE: OH --w-w- OWNER(S) -w---s-- past: /" ' A--F5 ---w-m- -e----v-------- Current: 0~. A-+A.~~ -------------------------- Owner contacted 0 yes 0 no; if yes, date contacted ------------- TYPE OF OPERATION -------e--------w 0 Research & Development 0 Facility Type 0 Production scale testing 0 Pilot Scale 0 Bench Scale Process 0 Theoretical Studies 0 Sample 84 Analysis x Manufacturing 0 University 0 Research Organization 0 Government Sponsored Facility 0 Other --------------------- B Production 0 Disposal/Storage TYPE OF CONTRACT

235

MEMORANDUM TO: FILE DATE  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

-.. -.. 37qg: MEMORANDUM TO: FILE DATE =b-- FROM: ---L- _------__ u . SUBJECT: SITE ACl= ALTERNATE NAME: -_______-~-----------------NA~E:__( CITY:--~---------_-STATE:-~~ (2 OWNE!sI_SL f Past- L&cl= w ------------------- ----- Current- w buL.r - ------------ ownq cm-ltacted 0 yes @ "no; if yes, data cnntacte TYPE OF OPERATION -------------_~-~ q Research & Development 0 Production %.cale testing 0 Pilot Scale 0 Bench Scale Process 0 Theoretical Studies 0 Sample 84 Analysis 0 Production i2 Disposal/Storage 0 Facility T 0 Hanufac 0 Univerrj 0 .R esearc 0 Governm 14 Other 1 I lil IrJ y,/3 Prime 0 Other infcrkion Subcwkractbr (i.e., ?bst + fixed fee! &nit price, Cl Purchase Order time & mate

236

United States Government DATE:  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

5oE(E;,8 ' 0 H .2+ L-1 5oE(E;,8 ' 0 H .2+ L-1 United States Government DATE: MAR 0 8 1994 REPLY TO AlTN OF: EM-421 (W. A. Williams, 903-8149) SUBJECT: Authority Determination -- Former Herring-Hall-Marvin Safe Co., Hamilton, Ohio TO: The File The attached review documents the basis for determining whether the Department of Energy (DOE) has authority for taking remedial action at the former Herring-Hall-Marvin Safe Co. facility in Hamilton, Ohio, under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). The facility was used for the shaping and machining of uranium metal by the Manhattan Engineer District (MED) during the Second World War. The following factors are significant in reaching a decision and are discussed in more detail in the attached authority review:

237

DATE: TO: FROM:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

-7' -7' August 20,2010 Procurement Directors Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, MA-61 Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Class Deviation by General Services Administration (GSA) to Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) 51.1, Contractor Use of Government Supply Sources, for Time and Material or Labor Hour Procurements SUMMARY: The attached GSA class deviation to FAR Part 51, Contractor Use of Government Supply Sources, dated October 8,2009, permits contracting officers to authorize all GSA contractors, who are performing an order on a time and material (T&M) or labor-hour (LH) basis, to purchase supplies and service from other schedule contractors or process requisitions through the GSA Supply Program. This deviation is effective for five years to October 7,2014,

238

DATE: TO: FROM:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

1 1,2008 1 1,2008 Procurement Directors Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, MA-61 Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBTECT: Past Performance Data SIJMMARY: Beginning October 01,2008, all contractor past performance data shall be submitted through the Department of Defense (DoD) Contractor Performance Assessment Reporting System (CPARS) at htt~://www.c~ars.csd.disa.mil/cr>arsmain.htm. Thus, the Department will no longer use the National Institute of Health (NIH) Contractor Performance System (CPS). To ensure all Contracting Officers understand how to use this new system, Web Cast Training has been scheduled for the following dates and times: October 8- 1:30-430 including construction and A/E training during the last hour November 6- 1:30-4:30 including construction and A/E training during the last hour

239

DATE: REPLY TO  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

DOE F 1325.8 DOE F 1325.8 (NW ed States Governhent ilmemorandum DATE: REPLY TO ' bPfl29 1993 Al-fN OF: EM-421 (W. W illiams, 903-8149) SUBJECT: Authorization for Remedial Action at the Former Associate Aircraft Site, Fairfield, Ohio TO: Manager, DOE Oak Ridge Field Office This is to notify you that the Former Associated Aircraft Site in Fairfield, Ohio, is designated,for remedial action under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). This notification does not constitute a FUSRAP baseline change control approval. Approval of the baseline change will be accomplished through the normal change control procedures. The site was used by the former Atomic Energy Commission for the machining and shaping of uranium metal during the 1950s. A radiological survey

240

DATE: TO: FROM: SUBJECT:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

DATE: TO: FROM: SUBJECT: - - -- . POLICY FLASH 2005-18 February 14, 2005 Procurement Directors Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, ME-61 Office of Procurement and Assistance Management Small Business Contracting Policy Update SUMMARY: This Policy Flash forwards (1) information on locating Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business (SDVOSBs) and (2) a solicitation provision which provides guidance to prospective offerors on the impact of teaming arrangements on their small business status. 1 -- -- --------- 1. To locate SDVOSBs, you can go to the Department of Veteran Affairs' website for the Center for Veterans Enterprise site at http://www.vetbiz.gov/default2.htm. From that site you can link to the "Search for a Business" at http://vip.vetbiz.gov/search/default.asp to find SDVQSBs. 2. The following provision is recommended for solicitations

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

DATE: TO: FROM:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

1 . 1 . January 20,20 1 0 Procurement Directors Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, MA-61 Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Commercial Items Test Program SUMMARY: Attached for your information is a copy of Civilian Agency Acquisition Council (CAAC) Letter 2009-04. It advises that the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 201 0, Section 8 16 authorizes extension of the Commercial Items Test Program from January 1,20 10 to January 1,20 12 and that an expedited FAR Case is being processed to insert the new date at FAR 13.500(d). Also attached is a class deviation authorizing the use of simplified acquisition procedures for commercial items up to $5.5 million [$I1 million for acquisitions of commercial items under FAR

242

DATE: TO: FROM:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

POLICY FLASH 2010-08 POLICY FLASH 2010-08 DATE: TO: FROM: October 28,2009 Procurement Directors Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, MA-6 1 Office of Procurement and Assistance Management SUBJECT: Amendment to Extend the Partnership Agreement between the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) and the Department of Energy (DOE) SUMMARY: The purpose of this flash is to advise you that an amendment was issued pursuant to Section VII of the Partnership Agreement (PA) between the SBA and the DOE. The amendment extends the current PA until November 30,2009. All other terms and conditions of the PA remain unchanged. This flash and its attachment will be available online at the following website: http://mana~ement.enerm.nov/policy nuidancelpolicy flashes.htm.

243

MEMORANDUM TO: FILE DATE  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

5/22/w 5/22/w ------..------------- FROM: D- f&u+ ---------------- SUBJECT: E/;-+&o.. ReC*-C.AB&;O* +L /z&J; &DC,, /Ptrr; CLonr z-r. SITE NAME: _ ALTERNATE ----------WV-- --------------------- NAME: EAT ---- ------------------ CAY: r-led 4' or k -------------------------- STATE: ti Y VW---- OWNER tS) -------- Past: ---Cl&zt.t.r-----~-~- ---- =urr=nt: ti& LPdA Owner cnntacted 0 yes mo; i+ ye8, -------------------------- date contacted ------------- TYPE OF OPERATION ----------------- w Research & Development E3 Facility Type 0 Production scale testing Cl Pilot Scale a Bench Scale Process B Theoretical Studies 0 Sample & Analysis 0 Manufacturing 0 University @ Research Organization 0 Government Sponsored Facility 17 Other

244

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

245

REVISED-FINAL-1ST-QUARTER-FY-2013-SCORECARD-09-05-13.xlsx  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Project MILESTONE FIELD ID MILESTONE NAME MILESTONE DESCRIPTION VARIANCE NARRATIVE FORECAST DATE ACTUAL DATE REGULATORY AGREEMENT NAME DESIGNATIONS BASELINE COMPLETION DATE...

246

Environmental Compliance Performance Scorecard ??? Fourth...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

MILESTONE FIELD ID MILESTONE NAME MILESTONE DESCRIPTION BASELINE COMPLETION DATE FORECAST DATE ACTUAL DATE STATUS NARRATIVE VARIANCE NARRATIVE REGULATORY AGREEMENT NAME...

247

Environmental Compliance Performance Scorecard ??? First...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

MILESTONE FIELD ID MILESTONE NAME MILESTONE DESCRIPTION BASELINE COMPLETION DATE FORECAST DATE ACTUAL DATE STATUS NARRATIVE VARIANCE NARRATIVE REGULATORY AGREEMENT NAME...

248

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

249

A Review of Numerical Forecast Guidance for Hurricane Hugo  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerical forecast guidance for Hurricane Hugo from the National Meteorological Center is examined, as well as forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. No one forecast product ...

John H. Ward

1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery orders using forecasts provided by their customers. Our goal is to improve the supplier's operations through a better un- derstanding of the customers's forecast behavior. Unfortunately, customer forecasts

Murphy, Robert F.

251

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...

Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

252

Site Acquisition Description/ Category Contracting Office Solicitation  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

is based on publicly available information available published on the DOE Acquisition Forecast (http:hqlnc.doe.govForecast) and other public sources. An actual date is provided...

253

NATURAL GAS FOR TRANSPORTATION OR ELECTRICITY? CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS Date: 27-Oct-11  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ethanol. Given that future natural gas supply is limited, despite forecasts of increased domestic. If the objective of a policy were the reduction of GHG emissions using a limited supply of natural gas, the bestNATURAL GAS FOR TRANSPORTATION OR ELECTRICITY? CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS Date: 27-Oct-11 Natural

254

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

255

Management of supply chain: an alternative modelling technique for forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view

Datta, Shoumen

2007-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

256

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical ...

Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson; Ted L. Tsui

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society “ENSO forecast plume” during the 2002–11 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Local Forecast Communication In The Altiplano  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts play an important role in planting decisions for Andean peasant producers. Predictions of the upcoming cropping season determine when, where, and what farmers will plant. This research looks at the sources of forecast information used ...

Jere L. Gilles; Corinne Valdivia

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...

Lance F. Bosart

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (...

Andreas Röpnack; Andreas Hense; Christoph Gebhardt; Detlev Majewski

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Value from Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explores the objective application of ambiguity information, that is, the uncertainty in forecast probability derived from an ensemble. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with forecast uncertainty ...

Mark S. Allen; F. Anthony Eckel

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

Forecaster Workstation Design: Concepts and Issues  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Some basic ideas about designing a meteorological workstation for operational weather forecasting are presented, in part as a complement to the recently published discussion of workstation design by R. R. Hoffman. Scientific weather forecasting ...

Charles A. Doswell III

1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...

Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem

2004-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

264

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing

de Lijser, Peter

265

Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

Trepte, Kai

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...

Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

267

Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because ...

Eric Gilleland; David Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Barbara Casati; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, ...

Emily Wallace; Alberto Arribas

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for River Basins  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology has been formulated to aid a field forecaster in preparing probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for river basins. The format of probabilistic QPF is designed to meet three requirements: (i) it is compatible with ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; William J. Drzal; Theresa Rossi Drake; James C. Weyman; Louis A. Giordano

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

A General Framework for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described. For further elaboration of the framework, two factorizations of the joint distribution are investigated: 1) the calibration-...

Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler

1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

Forecasting Techniques Utilized by the Forecast Branch of the National Meteorological Center During a Major Convective Rainfall Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Meteorologists within the Forecast Branch (FB) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) produce operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). These manual forecasts are prepared utilizing various forecasting techniques, which are ...

Theodore W. Funk

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.

274

Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis  

SciTech Connect

This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.

Cazalet, E.G.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

that are fit for their purpose; for example, returningaggregate county and sector forecasts that are consistent by construction....

Satchell, Stephen E; Wright, Stephen M

2006-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

276

Table 13. Coal Production, Projected vs. Actual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Coal Production, Projected vs. Actual" Coal Production, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (million short tons)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011 "AEO 1994",999,1021,1041,1051,1056,1066,1073,1081,1087,1098,1107,1122,1121,1128,1143,1173,1201,1223 "AEO 1995",,1006,1010,1011,1016,1017,1021,1027,1033,1040,1051,1066,1076,1083,1090,1108,1122,1137 "AEO 1996",,,1037,1044,1041,1045,1061,1070,1086,1100,1112,1121,1135,1156,1161,1167,1173,1184,1190 "AEO 1997",,,,1028,1052,1072,1088,1105,1110,1115,1123,1133,1146,1171,1182,1190,1193,1201,1209 "AEO 1998",,,,,1088,1122,1127.746338,1144.767212,1175.662598,1176.493652,1182.742065,1191.246948,1206.99585,1229.007202,1238.69043,1248.505981,1260.836914,1265.159424,1284.229736

277

Table 22. Energy Intensity, Projected vs. Actual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Energy Intensity, Projected vs. Actual" Energy Intensity, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (quadrillion Btu / real GDP in billion 2005 chained dollars)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011 "AEO 1994",11.24893441,11.08565002,10.98332766,10.82852279,10.67400621,10.54170176,10.39583203,10.27184573,10.14478673,10.02575883,9.910410202,9.810812106,9.69894802,9.599821783,9.486985399,9.394733753,9.303329725,9.221322623 "AEO 1995",,10.86137373,10.75116461,10.60467959,10.42268977,10.28668187,10.14461664,10.01081222,9.883759026,9.759022105,9.627404949,9.513643295,9.400418762,9.311729546,9.226142899,9.147374752,9.071102491,8.99599906 "AEO 1996",,,10.71047701,10.59846153,10.43655044,10.27812088,10.12746866,9.9694713,9.824165152,9.714832565,9.621874334,9.532324916,9.428169355,9.32931308,9.232716414,9.170931044,9.086870061,9.019963901,8.945602337

278

Improving Industrial Refrigeration System Efficiency - Actual Applications  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper discusses actual design and modifications for increased system efficiency and includes reduced chilled liquid flow during part load operation, reduced condensing and increased evaporator temperatures for reduced system head, thermosiphon cycle cooling during winter operation, compressor intercooling, direct refrigeration vs. brine cooling, insulation of cold piping to reduce heat gain, multiple screw compressors for improved part load operation, evaporative condensers for reduced system head and pumping energy, and using high efficiency motors.

White, T. L.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

279

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

280

Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...

2013-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

282

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

283

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

284

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

285

Load forecast and treatment of conservation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservation in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast

286

FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs

287

STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 report, Staff Forecast: Retail Electricity Prices, 2005 to 2018, was prepared with contributions from the technical assistance provided by Greg Broeking of R.W. Beck, Inc. in preparing retail price forecasts

288

Blue Chip Consensus US GDP Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and metro area from Moody’s Economy.com Equivalent to US-level Gross Domestic Product ? The GMP forecasts have a large impact on the peak load forecasts Rule of thumb: 1 % growth in RTO GMP ? approx. 1,000 MW growth in forecast RTO peak load

James F. Wilson

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

290

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used

291

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

292

Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity 29, 2012 Preliminary Results of the Electricity Price Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity market price forecast. A summary of the work

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

293

Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.

2001-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

295

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach can forecast the price of a notebook computer up to four months in advance of its introduction with an average error of under 10% and the rate of price erosion to within 10% of the price for seven months after introduction-the length of the typical life cycle of a notebook. Since all data are publicly available, this approach can be used to assist managerial decision making in the notebook computer industry, for example, in determining when and how to upgrade a model and when to introduce a new model.

Rutherford, Derek Paul

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

A Sensitivity Study of Building Performance Using 30-Year Actual...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Contacts Media Contacts A Sensitivity Study of Building Performance Using 30-Year Actual Weather Data Title A Sensitivity Study of Building Performance Using 30-Year Actual...

297

Chameleon foreCAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Dark energy models, such as the chameleon, where the acceleration of the expansion of the universe results from the dynamics of a scalar field coupled to matter, suffer from the potential existence of a fifth force. Three known mechanisms have been proposed to restore General Relativity in the solar system and the laboratory, which are the symmetron/Damour-Polyakov effect, the Vainshtein property and the chameleon screening. Here, we propose to probe the existence of chameleons in the laboratory, considering their particle physics consequences. We envisage the resonant and non-resonant production of chameleons in the sun and their back-conversion into X-ray photons in a solar helioscope pipe such as the one used by CAST. A detection of these X-rays would indicate the existence of chameleons. We focus on a template model for the solar magnetic field: a constant magnetic field in a narrow shell surrounding the tachocline. The X-ray photons in a helioscope pipe obtained from back-conversion of the chameleons created inside the sun have a spectrum which is peaked in the sub-keV region, just below the actual sensitivity range of the present axion helioscopes. Nevertheless they are detectable by present day magnetic helioscopes like CAST and Sumico, which were built originally for solar axions. We also propose a chameleon-through-a-wall experiment whereby X-ray photons from a synchroton radiation source could be converted into chameleons inside a dipole magnet, then pass a wall which is opaque to X-rays before being back-converted into X-ray photons in a second magnet downstream. We show that this could provide a direct signature for the existence of chameleon particles.

Philippe Brax; Axel Lindner; Konstantin Zioutas

2011-10-12T23:59:59.000Z

298

Radiocarbon dating, memories, and hopes  

SciTech Connect

The history of radiocarbon dating from 1939 to the present is reviewed. The basic principles of radiocarbon dating are that cosmic rays make living things radioactive with {sup 14}C to a certain level fixed by the environment and that at death the intake of food stops so no replenishment of the {sup 14}C steadily lost by the immutable decay occurs. Therefore measurement of the degree of decay gives the time lapse since death, i.e., the radiocarbon age. The equipment developed and experiments performed to measure the specific activity of specimens to be dated are described. The results obtained by world-wide experimenters are discussed. These showed that on simultaneity radiocarbon dating is apparently reliable but that absolute dates may be incorrect by as much as 600 to 700 y. The value of radiocarbon dating to archaeologists, geologists, climatologists, and historians is stressed. (LCL)

Libby, W.F.

1972-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Dates Fact Sheet.cdr  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

crossing. This enhances an asset owner's situational awareness capability beyond simple event detection and log management. The DATES monitoring platform uses multiple algorithms...

300

Next Release Date: September 2012  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

October 2010 DOEEIA-0121 (201002Q) Next Release Date: September 2012 Revised: July 2012 Quarterly Coal Report April - June 2010 October 2010 U.S. Energy Information...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Table 14. Coal Production, Projected vs. Actual  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Coal Production, Projected vs. Actual Coal Production, Projected vs. Actual (million short tons) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 AEO 1982 914 939 963 995 1031 1080 AEO 1983 900 926 947 974 1010 1045 1191 AEO 1984 899 921 948 974 1010 1057 1221 AEO 1985 886 909 930 940 958 985 1015 1041 1072 1094 1116 AEO 1986 890 920 954 962 983 1017 1044 1073 1097 1126 1142 1156 1176 1191 1217 AEO 1987 917 914 932 962 978 996 1020 1043 1068 1149 AEO 1989* 941 946 977 990 1018 1039 1058 1082 1084 1107 1130 1152 1171 AEO 1990 973 987 1085 1178 1379 AEO 1991 1035 1002 1016 1031 1043 1054 1065 1079 1096 1111 1133 1142 1160 1193 1234 1272 1309 1349 1386 1433 AEO 1992 1004 1040 1019 1034 1052 1064 1074 1087 1102 1133 1144 1156 1173 1201 1229 1272 1312 1355 1397 AEO 1993 1039 1043 1054 1065 1076 1086 1094 1102 1125 1136 1148 1161 1178 1204 1237 1269 1302 1327 AEO 1994 999 1021

302

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II uses the method of structural factor analysis to study the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in a data rich environment. I propose two structural factor models. One is the structural factor augmented vector autoregressive (SFAVAR) model and the other is the structural factor vector autoregressive (SFVAR) model. Compared to the traditional vector autogression (VAR) model, both models incorporate far more information from hundreds of data series, series that can be and are monitored by the Central Bank. Moreover, the factors used are structurally meaningful, a feature that adds to the understanding of the �black box� of the monetary transmission mechanism. Both models generate qualitatively reasonable impulse response functions. Using the SFVAR model, both the �price puzzle� and the �liquidity puzzle� are eliminated. Chapter III employs the method of structural factor analysis to conduct a forecasting exercise in a data rich environment. I simulate out-of-sample real time forecasting using a structural dynamic factor forecasting model and its variations. I use several structural factors to summarize the information from a large set of candidate explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)�s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor forecasting models compared to alternatives that include univariate autoregression (AR) model, the VAR model and Stock and Watson�s (2002) models, especially when forecasting real variables. In chapter IV, we measure U.S. technology shocks by implementing a dual approach, which is based on more reliable price data instead of aggregate quantity data. By doing so, we find the relative volatility of technology shocks and the correlation between output fluctuation and technology shocks to be much smaller than those revealed in most real-business-cycle (RBC) studies. Our results support the findings of Burnside, Eichenbaum and Rebelo (1996), who showed that the correlation between technology shocks and output is exaggerated in the RBC literature. This suggests that one should examine other sources of fluctuations for a better understanding of the business cycle phenomena.

Liu, Dandan

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

Categorical Exclusion (CX) Determinations By Date | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

3, 2011 3, 2011 CX-005016: Categorical Exclusion Determination A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits to Utility CX(s) Applied: A9, B3.1 Date: 01/13/2011 Location(s): Saint Paul, Minnesota Office(s): Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Golden Field Office January 13, 2011 CX-005011: Categorical Exclusion Determination Modeling the Physical and Biochemical Influence of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Plant Discharges into their Adjacent Waters CX(s) Applied: A9, A11 Date: 01/13/2011 Location(s): West Oahu, Hawaii Office(s): Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Golden Field Office January 13, 2011 CX-005007: Categorical Exclusion Determination State of Florida Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grant - Sunset

304

Forecasting Techniques The Use of Hourly Model-Generated Soundings to Forecast Mesoscale Phenomena. Part I: Initial Assessment in Forecasting Warm-Season Phenomena  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since late 1995, NCEP has made available to forecasters hourly model guidance at selected sites in the form of vertical profiles of various forecast fields. These profiles provide forecasters with increased temporal resolution and greater ...

Robert E. Hart; Gregory S. Forbes; Richard H. Grumm

1998-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

Meese-Rogoff redux: Micro-based exchange-rate forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Johnatban. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We'veBased Exchange-Rate Forecasting By MARTIN D . D . EVANS ANDon longer-horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over

Evans, MDD; Lyons, Richard K.

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

306

The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasters,” Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 28, No. 2, Mar,of Macroeconomic Forecasting” Journal of Macroeconomics,of Federal Reserve Forecasting,” Journal of Macroeconomics,

Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and V. Letschert (2005). Forecasting Electricity Demand in8364 Material World: Forecasting Household ApplianceMcNeil, 2008). Forecasting Diffusion Forecasting Variables

Letschert, Virginie

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

A Sensitivity Study of Building Performance Using 30-Year Actual Weather  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Sensitivity Study of Building Performance Using 30-Year Actual Weather Sensitivity Study of Building Performance Using 30-Year Actual Weather Data Title A Sensitivity Study of Building Performance Using 30-Year Actual Weather Data Publication Type Conference Paper Year of Publication 2013 Authors Hong, Tianzhen, Wen-Kuei Chang, and Hung-Wen Lin Date Published 05/2013 Keywords Actual meteorological year, Building simulation, Energy use, Peak electricity demand, Typical meteorological year, Weather data Abstract Traditional energy performance calculated using building simulation with the typical meteorological year (TMY) weather data represents the energy performance in a typical year but not necessarily the average or typical energy performance of a building in long term. Furthermore, the simulated results do not provide the range of variations due to the change of weather, which is important in building energy management and risk assessment of energy efficiency investment. This study analyzes the weather impact on peak electric demand and energy use by building simulation using 30-year actual meteorological year (AMY) weather data for three types of office buildings at two design efficiency levels across all 17 climate zones. The simulated results from the AMY are compared to those from TMY3 to determine and analyze the differences. It was found that yearly weather variation has significant impact on building performance especially peak electric demand. Energy savings of building technologies should be evaluated using simulations with multi-decade actual weather data to fully consider investment risk and the long term performance.

309

Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document represents the progress report and Task 1 letter report of the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) contract funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC), Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF) for California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Planning Phase. Task 1 was to accomplish the following items: Collect data from CAISO to set up the WECC power flow base case representing the CAISO system in the summer of 2006 Run TRACE for maximizing California Impo...

2006-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

310

Property:Achievement Date | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Date Jump to: navigation, search Property Name Achievement Date Property Type String Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleProperty:AchievementDate&oldid...

311

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2000 NEW JERSEY of growth will decelerate over the forecast period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey in 2000 looks to decelerate over the course of the forecast. These forces will combine to push the unemployment rate to more

312

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling A NOAA of the NWS's forecast products, even its regional forecast products, are constrained by the limitations of NOAA's global forecast model. Unfortunately, our global forecasts are less accurate than those from

Hamill, Tom

313

Mathematical and computer modelling reports: Modeling and forecasting energy markets with the intermediate future forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the ...

Frederic H. Murphy; John J. Conti; Susan H. Shaw; Reginald Sanders

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using one- to seven-day ensemble forecasts of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

315

Using National Air Quality Forecast Guidance to Develop Local Air Quality Index Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) currently provides next-day forecasts of ozone concentrations over the contiguous United States. It was developed collaboratively by NOAA and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in order to ...

Brian Eder; Daiwen Kang; S. Trivikrama Rao; Rohit Mathur; Shaocai Yu; Tanya Otte; Ken Schere; Richard Wayland; Scott Jackson; Paula Davidson; Jeff McQueen; George Bridgers

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

316

A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest evaluated the skill of ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Daniel S. Wilks

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Evaluating the propagation of errors associated with ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) into the ensemble streamflow response is important to reduce uncertainty in operational flow forecasting. In this paper, a multifractal ...

Giuseppe Mascaro; Enrique R. Vivoni; Roberto Deidda

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system obtained ...

David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

The Impact of Writing Area Forecast Discussions on Student Forecaster Performance  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A brief study is provided on the forecast performance of students who write a mock area forecast discussion (AFD) on a weekly basis. Student performance was tracked for one semester (11 weeks) during the University of Missouri—Columbia's local ...

Patrick S. Market

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...

Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for water resources planning and management as well as for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. In this study, operational streamflow forecasts are ...

A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Susan Espinueva

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work examines the performance of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEP’s coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in near–real time. ...

Kyong-Hwan Seo; Wanqiu Wang; Jon Gottschalck; Qin Zhang; Jae-Kyung E. Schemm; Wayne R. Higgins; Arun Kumar

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

Further Evaluation of the National Meterological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model Precpitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated ...

John O. Roads; T. Norman Maisal; Jordan Alpert

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability? M. Hashem Pesaran University of Cambridge, CIMF, and USC Andreas Pick University of Cambridge, CIMF March 11, 2008 Abstract This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used... but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single...

Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

328

Model documentation report: Short-term Integrated Forecasting System demand model 1985. [(STIFS)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) Demand Model consists of a set of energy demand and price models that are used to forecast monthly demand and prices of various energy products up to eight quarters in the future. The STIFS demand model is based on monthly data (unless otherwise noted), but the forecast is published on a quarterly basis. All of the forecasts are presented at the national level, and no regional detail is available. The model discussed in this report is the April 1985 version of the STIFS demand model. The relationships described by this model include: the specification of retail energy prices as a function of input prices, seasonal factors, and other significant variables; and the specification of energy demand by product as a function of price, a measure of economic activity, and other appropriate variables. The STIFS demand model is actually a collection of 18 individual models representing the demand for each type of fuel. The individual fuel models are listed below: motor gasoline; nonutility distillate fuel oil, (a) diesel, (b) nondiesel; nonutility residual fuel oil; jet fuel, kerosene-type and naphtha-type; liquefied petroleum gases; petrochemical feedstocks and ethane; kerosene; road oil and asphalt; still gas; petroleum coke; miscellaneous products; coking coal; electric utility coal; retail and general industry coal; electricity generation; nonutility natural gas; and utility petroleum. The demand estimates produced by these models are used in the STIFS integrating model to produce a full energy balance of energy supply, demand, and stock change. These forecasts are published quarterly in the Outlook. Details of the major changes in the forecasting methodology and an evaluation of previous forecast errors are presented once a year in Volume 2 of the Outlook, the Methodology publication.

Not Available

1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Table 23. Energy Intensity, Projected vs. Actual  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy Intensity, Projected vs. Actual Energy Intensity, Projected vs. Actual (quadrillion Btu / $Billion Nominal GDP) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 AEO 1982 20.1 18.5 16.9 15.5 14.4 13.2 AEO 1983 19.9 18.7 17.4 16.2 15.1 14.0 9.5 AEO 1984 20.1 19.0 17.7 16.5 15.5 14.5 10.2 AEO 1985 20.0 19.1 18.0 16.9 15.9 14.7 13.7 12.7 11.8 11.0 10.3 AEO 1986 18.3 17.8 16.8 16.1 15.2 14.3 13.4 12.6 11.7 10.9 10.2 9.5 8.9 8.3 7.8 AEO 1987 17.6 17.0 16.3 15.4 14.5 13.7 12.9 12.1 11.4 8.2 AEO 1989* 16.9 16.2 15.2 14.2 13.3 12.5 11.7 10.9 10.2 9.6 9.0 8.5 8.0 AEO 1990 16.1 15.4 11.7 8.6 6.4 AEO 1991 15.5 14.9 14.2 13.6 13.0 12.5 11.9 11.3 10.8 10.3 9.7 9.2 8.7 8.3 7.9 7.4 7.0 6.7 6.3 6.0 AEO 1992 15.0 14.5 13.9 13.3 12.7 12.1 11.6 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.6 8.1 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.6 6.2 AEO 1993 14.7 13.9 13.4 12.8 12.3 11.8 11.2 10.7 10.2 9.6 9.2 8.7 8.3 7.8 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.4

330

Solar future: 1978. [Market forecast to 1992  

SciTech Connect

The growth in sales of solar heating equipment is discussed. Some forecasts are made for the continued market growth of collectors, pool systems, and photovoltaics. (MOW)

Butt, S.H.

1978-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

Energy conservation and official UK energy forecasts  

SciTech Connect

Behind the latest United Kingdom (UK) official forecasts of energy demand are implicit assumptions about future energy-price elasticities. Mr. Pearce examines the basis of the forecasts and finds that the long-term energy-price elasticities that they imply are two or three times too low. The official forecasts substantially understate the responsiveness of demand to energy price rises. If more-realistic price elasticities were assumed, the official forecasts would imply a zero primary energy-demand growth to 2000. This raises the interesting possibility of a low energy future being brought about entirely by market forces. 15 references, 3 tables.

Pearce, D.

1980-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

334

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past Santa Fe Institute Proceedings on the Studies in the Sciences of ...

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Rolling 12 Month Forecast November-2008.xls  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Month Exceedence Level: 90% (Dry) First Preference CVP Generation Project Use November 2008 October 2009 November 2008 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource...

336

Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

Koottatep, Pakawkul

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract--In deregulated electricity markets, short-term load forecasting is important for reliable power322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting presents a similar day-based wavelet neural network method to forecast tomorrow's load. The idea

Tesfatsion, Leigh

338

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets MISO NYISO PJM ERCOT CAISO Peak load 109,157 MW (7 ........................................................................................... 18 4 WIND POWER FORECASTING AND ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATIONS............................................................ 18 4-1 Market Operation and Wind Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets .......... 21 #12

Kemner, Ken

339

Estimated Cost Description Determination Date:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

and posted 2/10/2011 and posted 2/10/2011 *Title, Location Estimated Cost Description Determination Date: uncertain Transmittal to State: uncertain EA Approval: uncertain $50,000 FONSI: uncertain Determination Date: uncertain Transmittal to State: uncertain EA Approval: uncertain FONSI: uncertain Total Estimated Cost $70,000 Attachment: Memo, Moody to Marcinowski, III, SUBJECT: NEPA 2011 APS for DOE-SRS, Dated: Annual NEPA Planning Summary Environmental Assessments (EAs) Expected to be Initiated in the Next 12 Months Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS) Jan-11 Estimated Schedule (**NEPA Milestones) South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC) issued a National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) Industrial Stormwater General Permit (IGP) # SCR000000 November 12, with an effective date of January

340

104th Dates to Remember  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Questions? Contact Connie Hilson, AOCS Exhibits Specialist, by email: connieh@aocs.org or by phone: +1 217-639-4831. Dates to Remember * January 7, 201/span>3 Online registration opens January 15, 201/span>3 Exhibitor presentations: Deadl

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

2 2 CX Posting No.: DOE-ID-INL-10-003 SECTION A. Project Title: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) Reactive Tracers. SECTION B. Project Description The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) Reactive Tracers project will be conducted at both the Raft River hydrothermal site in South Central Idaho and at the INL Research Center in Idaho Falls. The purpose of this work is to characterize tracers and test these tracers at the Raft River project through use of tracers and methods under realistic conditions. INL researchers will use an existing commercial hydrothermal site at Raft River that is currently operated by U.S. Geothermal, Inc. (USG), with whom INL has established a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) partnership. Numerous wells have previously been

342

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

6 6 SECTION A. Project Title: TRA-653 HVAC Modifications SECTION B. Project Description: The proposed project plans to replace the existing blowers, swamp coolers and electric heaters in the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Test Reactor Area-653 (TRA-653) office area with three roof mounted heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) units; and install six roof mounted HVAC units at the TRA-653 machine shop area. These modifications are needed to enhance workplace habitability, maintain a more consistent building environment, and achieve a more energy efficient system. The TRA- 653 machine shop currently uses portable swamp coolers to cool their shop. TRA-653 is eligible for the National Historic Register, however, the activity as described is exempt from cultural resource review (INL Cultural Resource Management Plan;

343

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

12 12 SECTION A. Project Title: Reactor Power Up Rate, Compressor Replacement, Neutron Radiography Restore, Liquid Scintillation Counter - Texas A&M University SECTION B. Project Description Texas A&M will replace an existing 54-year old compressor to improve reliability of the reactor operation and purchase a liquid scintillator counter to give the facility the ability to perform tritium analysis. Additionally, under NRC License R-83, Texas A&M will up rate the reactor power from 1MW to 1.5 MW and purchase equipment to restore capability to perform Neutron Radiography. SECTION C. Environmental Aspects / Potential Sources of Impact Radioactive Material Use - To calibrate the liquid scintillator, radioactive standards are used. Procedures are in place to handle.

344

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

42 42 SECTION A. Project Title: Innovative Manufacturing Process for Improving the Erosion/Corrosion Resistance of Power Plant Components via Powder Metallurgy & Hot Isostatic Processing Methods - Electric Power Research Institute SECTION B. Project Description The objective of this project is to conduct the necessary design, processing, manufacturing, and validation studies to assess powder metallurgy/hot isostatic processing (PM/HIP) as a method to produce very large near-net shaped (NNS) components with erosion/corrosion resistant surfaces for use in nuclear and electrical power generation equipment. * Project tasks include the following: * Modeling of NNS Component Alloy & Mold/Can design * Test coupon development, demonstration, and screening for surface applications

345

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

EC Document No.: DOE-ID-INL-10-011 EC Document No.: DOE-ID-INL-10-011 DIRECTIONS: Responsible Managers, Project Environmental Lead, and Environmental Support personnel complete this form by following the instructions found at the beginning of each section and submit to Environmental Support & Services (environmental.checklist@inl.gov). SECTION A. Project Title: CFA and ATR-Complex Analytical and R&D Laboratory Operation (Overarching) SECTION B. Project Description: This EC replaces overarching EC INL-05-017 due to changes in the laboratories identified in EC INL-05-017. The proposed action will continue to cover laboratory-based analytical and research and development (R&D) activities in laboratories located at the Central Facility Area (CFA) and the Advanced Test Reactor Complex (ATR-C) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). These activities include

346

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

0 0 SECTION A. Project Title: Test Reactor Cask Implementation. SECTION B. Project Description: This proposed action is a process and facility modification. Background / Purpose & Need The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) uses the Naval Reactors (NR) Casks to transport test trains between the Naval Reactors Facility (NRF) Expended Core Facility and the ATR. The Naval Reactor (NR) Casks, however, are approaching the end of their design life. In 1997, Bettis initiated a contract for construction of the NR Cask replacement, the Test Reactor Cask (TRC). The TRC is a revised and updated design of the NR cask and will be more robust structurally and provide more shielding than the current NR Casks. Construction of two TRCs is nearly finished and the INL must now modify the ATR facility and update ATR safety

347

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

5 5 SECTION A. Project Title: Replace 200,000 Gallon Water Storage Tank at MFC SECTION B. Project Description: The project is to replace the current 200,000 gallon potable water tank at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) with a new 300,000 gallon water tank. The existing tank and foundation will be removed and the waste materials managed and disposed under the direction of Waste Generator Services (WGS). The installation area for the new tank will be excavated and the new tank put in place. The new tank will be connected to the existing water system and will be coated on both exterior and interior surfaces to prevent corrosion. All valves and lines will be closed off to the construction area until the new tank is in place and the valves reconnected.

348

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

5 5 SECTION A. Project Title: Materials and Fuel Complex (MFC) Infrastructure Upgrades: Modular Office Units SECTION B. Project Description: MFC Infrastructure Upgrades - General The number of researchers and operators at MFC has significantly increased, and is projected to increase further in the future to support the expanding research activities at the facility. These activities will require Infrastructure upgrades (office space, potable water, wastewater treatment, communications, etc.) to accommodate the increasing number of personnel and work shifts. The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) will prepare a separate environmental checklist (EC) and conduct the appropriate level of environmental review for each infrastructure improvement project.

349

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

CX Posting No.: DOE-ID-INL-10-008 CX Posting No.: DOE-ID-INL-10-008 SECTION A. Project Title: Maintenance and Modification of Well TRA-08 SECTION B. Project Description: TRA-08, a groundwater monitoring well located approximately 1.5 miles south of the ATR Complex was drilled and constructed in 1990. The well is currently used as a groundwater monitoring compliance point for the ATR Complex Cold Waste Pond Industrial Wastewater Reuse Permit (IWRP). It is also used for CERCLA groundwater monitoring by CWI. Over the life of the well, corrosion of the carbon steel casing has resulted in an accumulation of rust flakes in the bottom of the well thus adversely affecting the efficiency of the well. In addition, the water level in the well has dropped from a depth of approximately 477 ft below ground surface at

350

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

3 3 CX Posting No.: DOE-ID-ICP-12-005 SECTION A. Project Title: INTEC - U-233 Waste Stream Disposition SECTION B. Project Description The proposed action will transfer 171 drums of U-233 waste from the Advanced Mixed Waste Treatment Project (AMWTP) to INTEC for verification, treatment, and repackaging for final disposition at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The U233 drums are a portion of waste historically managed as transuranic as part of the 1995 Idaho Settlement Agreement.The waste management actions will be performed in CPP-659 or the Radioactive Mixed Waste Staging Facility (CPP-1617). The bulk of the U-233 waste is from the Bettis Atomic Power Laboratory and consists of U-233/Th-232 contaminated materials (minor amounts of enriched, depleted and natural powders) generated in the 1970's during development of a

351

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

16 SECTION A. Project Title: GaRDS Vehicle X-Ray System Procurement, Installation and Operations SECTION B. Project Description: . This effort will be to procure, install, and...

352

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

covers competitions. Word versions of the four templates will be available in the STRIPES Library. This Flash and its attachments will be available online within a day, at the...

353

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

will be e-mailed directly to the Procurement Directors and made available in the STRIPES Library. This Flash and its attachments will be available online within a day, at the...

354

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

version of the fourteen aforementioned RFP Section L and M templates are available in STRIPES as part of the series of DOE-L-1024 or DOE-M-1005 clauses. This Flash will be...

355

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

version of the three aforementioned RFP Section H and L templates are available in STRIPES. This Flash will be available online within a day, at the following website: http:...

356

Dates:  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

of the determinants of fire behavior though studying inputs (weather, slope, fuels, and fuel moisture); learn how to interpret fire behavior outputs; documentation processes; &...

357

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

01 01 SECTION A. Project Title: Nuclear Fabrication Consortium SECTION B. Project Description The mission of the NFC will be accomplished through both public and private funding. The list below outlines the programs that have identified for initiation under the initial DOE funding. Additional programs are envisioned and will be proposed, subject to any applicable budget constraints, to DOE-NE as they become known to EWI, the NFC, and DOE. 1. Automation of Advanced Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) Technologies The objective of the first phase of this project is to improve the reliability of NDE methods by increasing the automation content. 2. Advanced Laser Technology The objective is to identify laser applications that offer significant productivity gains over the current processes being used, and

358

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

2 2 __________________________ 1 DOE's strategic plans included the Nuclear Energy Research and Development Roadmap" (2010 Predecisional draft) and reports such as "Facilities for the Future of Nuclear Energy Research: A Twenty-year Outlook". SECTION A. Project Title: Materials and Fuel Complex (MFC) Infrastructure Upgrades: Sewage Lagoons Upgrades SECTION B. Project Description: MFC Infrastructure Upgrades - MFC Sewage Lagoon Upgrades This EC focuses on upgrades to the existing 2.4 acre evaporative sewage lagoons, located north-east and outside of the MFC fenced area. These existing lagoons are currently at capacity with the approximately 800 personnel based at MFC. The number of researchers and operations

359

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

5 5 SECTION A. Project Title: Replace 200,000 Gallon Water Storage Tank at MFC SECTION B. Project Description: The project is to replace the current 200,000 gallon potable water tank at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) with a new 300,000 gallon water tank. The existing tank and foundation will be removed and the waste materials managed and disposed under the direction of Waste Generator Services (WGS). The installation area for the new tank will be excavated and the new tank put in place. The new tank will be connected to the existing water system and will be coated on both exterior and interior surfaces to prevent corrosion. All valves and lines will be closed off to the construction area until the new tank is in place and the valves reconnected.

360

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

12 Request for Pre-Applications 12 Request for Pre-Applications Workscope Descriptions FY 2012 Request for Pre-Applications PROGRAM SUPPORTING: FUEL CYCLE R&D SEPARATIONS AND WASTE FORMS (F E DE R A L POC - J I M B R E SE E & T E C H NI C A L POC - T E R R Y T ODD) Separations and Waste Forms (FC-1) - The separations and waste forms campaign develops the next generation of fuel cycle and waste management technologies that enable a sustainable fuel cycle, with minimal processing, waste generation, and potential for material diversion. Today's technology challenges include the economical recovery of transuranic elements for recycle/transmutation; and minimizing waste generation (including both high level and low level waste). Priority research efforts revolve around achieving near-zero radioactive off-gas emissions; developing a simplified, single-step

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

2 2 SECTION A. Project Title: INL - Off-Road ATV Use In Support of Engineering Surveys SECTION B. Project Description The proposed action will allow for off-road ATV use near T-24 and T-25 at the Idaho National Laboratory Site. The ATV(s) will be used to survey in support of engineering design for a proposed upgraded haul road within the INL Site. Currently, an Environmental Assessment is being prepared to address upgrading either T-24 or T-25 to establish a site transportation route for the out-of-commerce shipment of materials and wastes from MFC to other site areas to reduce U.S. Highway 20 road closures, improve safety, and reduce cost. Since off-road use of motorized vehicles is prohibited unless approval is obtained, this Environmental Checklist will document that

362

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

MEASUREMENT SENSITIVE DOE G 440.2B-1A 9-19-05 IMPLEMENTATION GUIDE AVIATION PROGRAM PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (METRICS) for use with DOE O 440.2B, Aviation Management and Safety [This Guide describes suggested nonmandatory approaches for meeting requirements. Guides are not requirements documents and may not be construed as requirements in any audit or appraisal for compliance with the parent Policy, Order, Notice, or Manual.] U.S. Department of Energy Washington, D.C. 20585 AVAILABLE ONLINE AT: INITIATED BY: www.directives.doe.gov Office of Aviation Management/OMBE/CFO DOE G 440.2B-1A i (and ii) 9-19-05 FOREWORD This Department of Energy (DOE) Aviation Program performance indicators interim guide is approved by the Office of Aviation Management (OAM) and is available for use by all DOE and

363

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

09-003 09-003 SECTION A. Project Title: Removal of Central Facilities Area (CFA)-661 Interior Walls and Mezzanine. SECTION B. Project Description The initial action to be covered under this Environmental Checklist will be removal of the mezzanines from CFA-661 to provide for material storage and work space for the National and Homeland Security (N&HS) Wireless Test Bed project. More specifically, this involves storage of electronic equipment, antennas and antenna masts, personnel supplies, and a variety of spare parts to support the project. In addition to storage, plans include a staging and lay down area where partial assembly of project equipment can be performed. Following completion of N&HS work within CFA-661, Facilities and Site Services will then remove the interior walls.

364

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

ICP-12-003 ICP-12-003 SECTION A. Project Title: CPP-684 - Remote Analytical Laboratory Facility Modifications SECTION B. Project Description The proposed activities are intended to render CPP-684 Remote Analytical Laboratory (RAL) as a limited access area by removing existing operational functions that are currently performed in the facility. In general, the activities will involve (1) removing the need for building heat and overall reduction of power consumption; (2) converting the existing fire protection system to an anti-freeze charged system; (3) relocating the Remote Distribution Module (RDM), which is part of installed equipment used for the emergency communication system from CPP-684 to CPP-663; and, if pursued, (4) perform specific tasks which would allow a downgrade CPP-684

365

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

3 3 SECTION A. Project Title: Relocation of National and Homeland Security New Generation Wireless Test Bed Equipment and Personnel SECTION B. Project Description: This activity is to relocate and consolidate Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC (BEA) National and Homeland Security (NHS) New Generation Wireless Test Bed (NGWTB) program personnel and equipment from Critical Infrastructure Test Range Complex (CITRC) to Central Facilitis Area (CFA). This activity also includes relocating the antenna field from vicinity Power Burst Facility (PBF)-641 to the vicinity of PBF-620 Cell Site 9 area. The Remote Testing Monitoring Facility will be relocated from the vicinity of Gate 3 to the Cell Site 9 area. The Cell Site 9 area near PBF-620 is previously disturbed soil and asphalt.

366

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

16 16 SECTION A. Project Title: GaRDS Vehicle X-Ray System Procurement, Installation and Operations SECTION B. Project Description: . This effort will be to procure, install, and operate a Gamma Radiation Detection System (GaRDS) capable of providing X-Ray images of incoming vehicles and delivery trucks. The scanner will be equipped with a 1 Ci Cobalt-60 gamma source and will be installed in building MFC-736. This security building is located on Taylor Blvd approximately one mile south of the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) and already houses a Vehicle Explosives Detection System equipped with two 50 microgram Cf-252 sources. The purpose of the proposed detection system is to enhance the security capability for MFC facilities, research programs, and personnel.

367

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

2 2 SECTION A. Project Title: MFC Dial Room Replacement Project SECTION B. Project Description: The proposed project is to construct and operate a new dial room at the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) to continue operation of the telecommunications system at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). As part of the INL Private Branch Exchange (PBX) consolidation effort, the need to replace Central Facilities Area (CFA), Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC), and Power Burst Facility (PBF) PBX switches will eliminate the current switches potential failure and provide the necessary maintainable hardware and software to support INL missions. The project will maintain the existing dial room in the basement of MFC-752 as a splice/conduit/equipment

368

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

09-001 09-001 SECTION A. Project Title: ICP Routine Maintenance SECTION B. Project Description The purpose of this document is to address actions that meet the intent of the categorical exclusion (CX) B1.3 as described in 10 CFR 1021, Appendix B to Subpart D. Both typical and non-typical types of actions, such as routine maintenance, minor modifications, and custodial services required to support safe and efficient plant operations even if performed on an infrequent basis are addressed. All of the activities will be performed in support of CWI operations. The actions will occur within site boundaries of the INL and ICP facilities and within leased facilities in Idaho Falls, Idaho. Routine maintenance includes custodial services for buildings, structures, rights-of-way, infrastructures (e.g., pathways, roads, and

369

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

3 3 SECTION A. Project Title: INL - Site Wide Well Abandonment Activities SECTION B. Project Description The proposed action will abandon inactive wells and injection wells at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site. Wells and injection wells will be abandoned as per MCP-1442, MCP-3480 and the Idaho Department of Water Resources (IDWR) requirements, as applicable. The wells to be abandoned are located both within the INL facility boundaries and outside of the INL facility boundaries. The proposed action will address all classes of wells including Class IV and V injection wells. The wells will be abandoned in accordance with instructions provided in this Environmental Checklist, MCP-3480 and Section 4.5 in MCP-1442, Well Drilling, Maintenance, Surveillance, and Abandonment Activities. The MCPs identify the process to be followed for

370

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

5 5 CX Posting No.: DOE-ID-ICP-12-002 SECTION A. Project Title: ICP Routine Maintenance SECTION B. Project Description The purpose of this document is to address actions that meet the intent of the categorical exclusion (CX) B1.3 as described in 10 CFR 1021, Appendix B to Subpart D. Both typical and non-typical types of actions, such as routine maintenance, minor modifications, and custodial services required to support safe and efficient plant operations even if performed on an infrequent basis are addressed. All of the activities will be performed in support of CWI operations. The actions will occur within site boundaries of the INL and ICP facilities and within leased facilities in Idaho Falls, Idaho. Routine maintenance includes custodial services for buildings, structures, rights-of-way,

371

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

1 1 SECTION A. Project Title: CFA-696 Power and Plumbing Upgrades SECTION B. Project Description: There is insufficient electrical power in the East Bay and the West Bay of the Central Facility Area (CFA) Transportation Complex to allow the craftsmen to fully utilize the available floor space without the use of extension cords. Additionally, a new hydraulic hose clamper is to be installed in the Parts Room and it needs a dedicated 30A power supply. The craftsmen also need another wash sink in the East Bay. The current method of connecting to the internet using Local Area Network (LAN) cables is cumbersome and inefficient. There is not enough lighting in the north side of the southeast section of the East Bay. This project installs the necessary electrical service, additional plumbing, and wireless internet capability as itemized below:

372

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

5 5 CX Posting No.: DOE-ID-ICP-12-002 SECTION A. Project Title: ICP Routine Maintenance SECTION B. Project Description The purpose of this document is to address actions that meet the intent of the categorical exclusion (CX) B1.3 as described in 10 CFR 1021, Appendix B to Subpart D. Both typical and non-typical types of actions, such as routine maintenance, minor modifications, and custodial services required to support safe and efficient plant operations even if performed on an infrequent basis are addressed. All of the activities will be performed in support of CWI operations. The actions will occur within site boundaries of the INL and ICP facilities and within leased facilities in Idaho Falls, Idaho. Routine maintenance includes custodial services for buildings, structures, rights-of-way,

373

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

CX Posting No.: DOE-ID-INL-10-008 CX Posting No.: DOE-ID-INL-10-008 SECTION A. Project Title: Maintenance and Modification of Well TRA-08 SECTION B. Project Description: TRA-08, a groundwater monitoring well located approximately 1.5 miles south of the ATR Complex was drilled and constructed in 1990. The well is currently used as a groundwater monitoring compliance point for the ATR Complex Cold Waste Pond Industrial Wastewater Reuse Permit (IWRP). It is also used for CERCLA groundwater monitoring by CWI. Over the life of the well, corrosion of the carbon steel casing has resulted in an accumulation of rust flakes in the bottom of the well thus adversely affecting the efficiency of the well. In addition, the water level in the well has dropped from a depth of approximately 477 ft below ground surface at

374

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

2 2 __________________________ 1 DOE's strategic plans included the Nuclear Energy Research and Development Roadmap" (2010 Predecisional draft) and reports such as "Facilities for the Future of Nuclear Energy Research: A Twenty-year Outlook". SECTION A. Project Title: Materials and Fuel Complex (MFC) Infrastructure Upgrades: Sewage Lagoons Upgrades SECTION B. Project Description: MFC Infrastructure Upgrades - MFC Sewage Lagoon Upgrades This EC focuses on upgrades to the existing 2.4 acre evaporative sewage lagoons, located north-east and outside of the MFC fenced area. These existing lagoons are currently at capacity with the approximately 800 personnel based at MFC. The number of researchers and operations

375

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

10-009 10-009 SECTION A. Project Title Idaho Falls (IF)-608 Uninterrupted Power Supply Upgrade Project SECTION B. Project Description: This project increases the Uninterrupted Power Supply (UPS) capacity in the IF-608 Information Operations and Research Center (IORC) by removing two existing UPS systems (50 KVA and 36 KVA) and installing a 225 KVA system. A ~15 ton cooling unit will be installed on the roof for heat removal. Associated work will include additional electrical panel(s) and electrical conduit rerouting and installation. Disposal of the existing UPS systems may be required depending on whether they are claimed off the excess list. This work will be performed either under blanket subcontracts or by a separate construction contractor and is planned for completion by

376

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

6 6 SECTION A. Project Title: TRA-653 HVAC Modifications SECTION B. Project Description: The proposed project plans to replace the existing blowers, swamp coolers and electric heaters in the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Test Reactor Area-653 (TRA-653) office area with three roof mounted heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) units; and install six roof mounted HVAC units at the TRA-653 machine shop area. These modifications are needed to enhance workplace habitability, maintain a more consistent building environment, and achieve a more energy efficient system. The TRA- 653 machine shop currently uses portable swamp coolers to cool their shop. TRA-653 is eligible for the National Historic Register, however, the activity as described is exempt from cultural resource review (INL Cultural Resource Management Plan;

377

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

7 7 SECTION A. Project Title: TRA-609 Compressed Air System Drain Line Modification and Valve Replacement SECTION B. Project Description: Due to periods of insufficient water flow to the sewer ponds, the clay liners in the ponds can dry out and crack. This proposed action is to add an additional drain line, which will allow clean well water that has been used to cool compressors to then be drained into the sewer system ponds during low flow periods in order to maintain a higher, more consistent water level. There are no chemicals added to the water. This project will replace the 1.5" compressor oil cooling water solenoid valves with ball valves on M-6, M-7 and M-8; replace the 2" compressor oil and air cooling system flow control valves on M-6, M-8 and M-9; install a new check valve in the compressed air system auxiliary compressor line; install a drain line

378

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

10-009 10-009 SECTION A. Project Title Idaho Falls (IF)-608 Uninterrupted Power Supply Upgrade Project SECTION B. Project Description: This project increases the Uninterrupted Power Supply (UPS) capacity in the IF-608 Information Operations and Research Center (IORC) by removing two existing UPS systems (50 KVA and 36 KVA) and installing a 225 KVA system. A ~15 ton cooling unit will be installed on the roof for heat removal. Associated work will include additional electrical panel(s) and electrical conduit rerouting and installation. Disposal of the existing UPS systems may be required depending on whether they are claimed off the excess list. This work will be performed either under blanket subcontracts or by a separate construction contractor and is planned for completion by

379

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

7 7 SECTION A. Project Title: TRA-609 Compressed Air System Drain Line Modification and Valve Replacement SECTION B. Project Description: Due to periods of insufficient water flow to the sewer ponds, the clay liners in the ponds can dry out and crack. This proposed action is to add an additional drain line, which will allow clean well water that has been used to cool compressors to then be drained into the sewer system ponds during low flow periods in order to maintain a higher, more consistent water level. There are no chemicals added to the water. This project will replace the 1.5" compressor oil cooling water solenoid valves with ball valves on M-6, M-7 and M-8; replace the 2" compressor oil and air cooling system flow control valves on M-6, M-8 and M-9; install a new check valve in the compressed air system auxiliary compressor line; install a drain line

380

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

4 4 SECTION A. Project Title: Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) Infrastructure Upgrades - Technical Support Building SECTION B. Project Description: Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) Infrastructure Upgrades - General The number of researchers and operators at the Materials and Fuels Complex has significantly increased, and is projected to increase further in the future to support the expanding research activities at the facility. These activities will require infrastructure upgrades (office space, potable water, wastewater treatment, communications, etc.) to accommodate the increasing number of personnel and work shifts. The INL will prepare a separate environmental checklist (EC) and conduct the appropriate level of environmental review for each

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

2 2 CX Posting No.: DOE-ID-INL-10-003 SECTION A. Project Title: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) Reactive Tracers. SECTION B. Project Description The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) Reactive Tracers project will be conducted at both the Raft River hydrothermal site in South Central Idaho and at the INL Research Center in Idaho Falls. The purpose of this work is to characterize tracers and test these tracers at the Raft River project through use of tracers and methods under realistic conditions. INL researchers will use an existing commercial hydrothermal site at Raft River that is currently operated by U.S. Geothermal, Inc. (USG), with whom INL has established a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) partnership. Numerous wells have previously been

382

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

5 5 SECTION A. Project Title: Materials and Fuel Complex (MFC) Infrastructure Upgrades: Modular Office Units SECTION B. Project Description: MFC Infrastructure Upgrades - General The number of researchers and operators at MFC has significantly increased, and is projected to increase further in the future to support the expanding research activities at the facility. These activities will require Infrastructure upgrades (office space, potable water, wastewater treatment, communications, etc.) to accommodate the increasing number of personnel and work shifts. The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) will prepare a separate environmental checklist (EC) and conduct the appropriate level of environmental review for each infrastructure improvement project.

383

DATE  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

4 4 SECTION A. Project Title: Characterization of Fluidized Beds via Pressure Fluctuation Analysis SECTION B. Project Description: The purpose of this work is to conduct research using pressure as a measure of performance for fluidized beds (spouted, bubbling, or slugging) at the Center for Advanced Energy Studies (CAES). The approach to this research activity consists of two main tasks: 1. Sieving the bed media with a motorized sieve shaker - sintered aluminosilicate spheres (used in the petroleum industry as a proppant to hold fractures open when the rock formation has been hydro-fractured) and assorted seeds (mustard, canola, sorghum, etc.). The aluminosilicate spheres have very little dust potential. Some of the aluminosilicates may have free silica

384

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

existing technologies to advance weld quality monitoring and closed loop feedback for welding systems and techniques typically used in the nuclear industry. 9. Stress Corrosion...

385

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

be performed without further CRM office involvement. Generating and Managing Waste - Industrial waste in the form of general construction debris such as waste concrete, scrap...

386

Date  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

owners rely on and hold contracts with Western for access to affordable and reliable bulk power supply from the Pick Sloan hydro electric system and transmission service from the...

387

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

to give the facility the ability to perform tritium analysis. Additionally, under NRC License R-83, Texas A&M will up rate the reactor power from 1MW to 1.5 MW and purchase...

388

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

ICP-12-003 SECTION A. Project Title: CPP-684 - Remote Analytical Laboratory Facility Modifications SECTION B. Project Description The proposed activities are intended to render...

389

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

and Managing Waste: Wooden material wastes would be generated from dimension lumber, plywood and particle board. No regulated wastes (e.g. chemicals, asbestos) are anticipated to...

390

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

0 SECTION A. Project Title: Test Reactor Cask Implementation. SECTION B. Project Description: This proposed action is a process and facility modification. Background Purpose &...

391

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

CERCLA Disposal Facility or at an approved off-Site facility through Waste Generator Services. 19. Work within areas Subject to Flooding - Since the well abandonment work is...

392

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

HEPA filters. These materials will be packaged and disposed of through Waste Generation Services. 19. Work in Areas Subject to Flooding - The activities discussed are planned to...

393

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

for Improving the ErosionCorrosion Resistance of Power Plant Components via Powder Metallurgy & Hot Isostatic Processing Methods - Electric Power Research Institute SECTION B....

394

DATE:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

I, Title II, and Title III and Division G, Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act, 2013, Pub. L. No.113-6 SUMMARY: Acquisition Letter (AL) 2013-06 and Financial...

395

Date  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This Design Manual Chapter 1620 Supplement is to revise WSDOT policy relating to the selection of impact attenuator systems. If you maintain a printed manual, please remove the current Chapter 1620 and replace it with the August 2011 Supplement. To get the latest information on WSDOT administrative and engineering manuals, sign up for

unknown authors

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Satellite Accumulation Areas (SAAs) or a <90-day storage areas before shipping to a treatment, storage, and disposal facility (TSDF). DOE-ID NEPA CX DETERMINATION IDAHO NATIONAL...

397

DATE  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

will pack, move, setup, and test the NGWTB electronic equipment. In addition, the propane tank located at CFA-666 will be relocated to CFA-661. Three propane heaters and...

398

Date  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis has been reviewed by the research advisor, research coordinator, and department chair and has been found to be satisfactory.

Clark David; Wilson Blockburger

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Forecasting during the Lake-ICE/SNOWBANDS Field Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite improvements in numerical weather prediction models, statistical models, forecast decision trees, and forecasting rules of thumb, human interpretation of meteorological information for a particular forecast situation can still yield a ...

Peter J. Sousounis; Greg E. Mann; George S. Young; Richard B. Wagenmaker; Bradley D. Hoggatt; William J. Badini

1999-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-...

Stanley A. Changnon; Joyce M. Changnon; David Changnon

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Forecasting and Verifying in a Field Research Project: DOPLIGHT '87  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Verification of forecasts during research field experiments is discussed and exemplified using the DOPLIGHT '87 experiment. We stress the importance of forecast verification if forecasting is to be a serious component of the research. A direct ...

Charles A. Doswell III; John A. Flueck

1989-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

402

A Probabilistic Forecast Approach for Daily Precipitation Totals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Commonly, postprocessing techniques are employed to calibrate a model forecast. Here, a probabilistic postprocessor is presented that provides calibrated probability and quantile forecasts of precipitation on the local scale. The forecasts are ...

Petra Friederichs; Andreas Hense

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

403

Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The role of the human forecaster in improving upon the accuracy of numerical weather prediction is explored using multi-year verification of human-generated short-range precipitation forecasts and medium-range maximum temperature forecasts from ...

David R. Novak; Christopher Bailey; Keith Brill; Patrick Burke; Wallace Hogsett; Robert Rausch; Michael Schichtel

404

Prediction of Consensus Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The extent to which the tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast error of a consensus model (CONU) routinely used by the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center can be predicted is determined. A number of predictors of consensus forecast error, ...

James S. Goerss

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

405

An Experiment in Mesoscale Weather Forecasting in the Michigan Area  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During an experiment in mesoscale weather forecasting in the Michigan area, consensus improved over NWS guidance in maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation forecasts out to 24 hours. Forecasts were generally best in the ...

Dennis G. Baker

1986-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration that is applied to ...

Yuejian Zhu; Zoltan Toth; Richard Wobus; David Richardson; Kenneth Mylne

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...

Ramón de Elía; René Laprise

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

An Alternative Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Verification Technique  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts are included in a ...

Sim D. Aberson

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

On the Reliability and Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An important aspect of ensemble forecasting is that the resulting probabilities are reliable (i.e., the forecast probabilities match the observed frequencies). In the medium-range forecasting context, the literature tends to focus on the ...

Christine Johnson; Neill Bowler

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a long-standing aim in meteorological forecasting. This paper explains the ...

Jochen Bröcker; Leonard A. Smith

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Experiments in Temperature and Precipitation Forecasting for Illinois  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Six years of daily temperature and precipitation forecasting are studied for Urbana, Illinois. Minimum temperature forecast skills, measured against a climatological control, are 57%, 48%, 34% and 20% for the respective forecast ranges of one, ...

John R. Gyakum

1986-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the entire forecast period, primarily because both weather-adjusted peak and electricity consumption were forecast. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather normalization, annual peak demand, natural gas demand, self-generation, conservation, California Solar Initiative. #12

413

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

414

Price and Load Forecasting in Volatile Energy Markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

With daily news stories about wildly fluctuating electricity prices and soaring natural gas prices, forecasters' responsibilities are expanding, visibility is increasing, and pressure exists to produce more frequent forecasts and more kinds of forecasts. The proceedings of EPRI's 13th Forecasting Symposium, held November 13-15 in Nashville, Tennessee, address current forecasting issues and developments, as well as explain the role that forecasters have played in recent events in energy markets.

2001-12-05T23:59:59.000Z

415

Possibility of Skill Forecast Based on the Finite-Time Dominant Linear Solutions for a Primitive Equation Regional Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The possibility of using forecast errors originating from the finite-time dominant linear modes for the prediction of forecast skill for a primitive equation regional forecast model is studied. This is similar to the method for skill prediction ...

Tomislava Vuki?evi?

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy to someone by E-mail Share SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy...

417

New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering...

418

Exploiting Domain Knowledge to Forecast Heating Oil Consumption  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The GasDay laboratory at Marquette University provides forecasts of energy consumption. One such service is the Heating Oil Forecaster

George F. Corliss; Tsuginosuke Sakauchi; Steven R. Vitullo; Ronald H. Brown

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Alphabetically Tools by Platform PC Mac UNIX Internet Tools by Country Related Links Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides...

420

Blasting Vibration Forecast Base on Neural Network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The influence of blasting vibration to surroundings around the blasting area can not be ignored, in order to guarantee the safety of surroundings around blasting area, blasting vibration forecasting model based on neural network is established by improved ... Keywords: Blasting vibration, Neural network, Forecast

Haiwang Ye; Fang Liu; Jian Chang; Lin Feng; Yang Wang; Peng Yao; Kai Wu

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Evaluating the Skill of Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A generalized skill score is presented for evaluating forecasts in any number of categories. Each forecast in a sample is given a mark; the skill score for the sample is just the average mark. Each mark has an expected value of zero for an ...

Neil D. Gordon

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

Making Forecasts and Weather Normalization Work Together  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Electric utility industry restructuring has changed the consistency between weather-normalized sales and energy forecasts. This Technology Review discusses the feasibility of integrating weather normalization and forecasting processes, and addresses whether the conflicting goal of obtaining greater consistency and accuracy with fewer staff resources can be met with more integrated approaches.

2000-09-11T23:59:59.000Z

423

Forecasting demand of commodities after natural disasters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Demand forecasting after natural disasters is especially important in emergency management. However, since the time series of commodities demand after natural disasters usually has a great deal of nonlinearity and irregularity, it has poor prediction ... Keywords: ARIMA, Demand forecasting, EMD, Emergency management, Natural disaster

Xiaoyan Xu; Yuqing Qi; Zhongsheng Hua

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

424

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled Reanalysis ...

Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; David Behringer; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-ya Chuang; Mark Iredell; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Malaquías Peńa Mendez; Huug van den Dool; Qin Zhang; Wanqiu Wang; Mingyue Chen; Emily Becker

425

Efficient forecasting for hierarchical time series  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting is used as the basis for business planning in many application areas such as energy, sales and traffic management. Time series data used in these areas is often hierarchically organized and thus, aggregated along the hierarchy levels based ... Keywords: forecasting, hierarchies, optimization, time series

Lars Dannecker; Robert Lorenz; Philipp Rösch; Wolfgang Lehner; Gregor Hackenbroich

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

Time series forecasting with Qubit Neural Networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a quantum learning scheme approach for time series forecasting, through the application of the new non-standard Qubit Neural Network (QNN) model. The QNN description was adapted in this work in order to resemble classical Artificial ... Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, quantum computing, qubit neural networks, time series forecasting

Carlos R. B. Azevedo; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

Forecast of geothermal-drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are forecasted. Results of the forecast are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.

Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

428

Preemptive Forecasts Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) estimates the error statistics of a model forecast using an ensemble of model forecasts. One use of an EnKF is data assimilation, resulting in the creation of an increment to the first-guess field at the ...

Brian J. Etherton

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

429

A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a distributed model that is in operational use for forecasting flash floods in northern Austria. The main challenge in developing the model was parameter identification which was addressed by a modelling strategy that involved a model ... Keywords: Distributed modelling, Dominant processes concept, Floods, Forecasting, Kalman Filter, Model accuracy, Parameter identification, Stream routing

Günter Blöschl; Christian Reszler; Jürgen Komma

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

Incentives for Retailer Forecasting: Rebates vs. Returns  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper studies a manufacturer that sells to a newsvendor retailer who can improve the quality of her demand information by exerting costly forecasting effort. In such a setting, contracts play two roles: providing incentives to influence the retailer's ... Keywords: endogenous adverse selection, forecasting, rebates, returns, supply chain contracting

Terry A. Taylor; Wenqiang Xiao

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...

Ye, Quanzhi

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

432

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

433

Dating deception: Gender, online dating, and exaggerated self-presentation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study examined how differences in expectations about meeting impacted the degree of deceptive self-presentation individuals displayed within the context of dating. Participants filled out personality measures in one of four anticipated meeting conditions: ... Keywords: Gender differences, Internet, Mate selection, Personality, Self-presentation

Rosanna E. Guadagno; Bradley M. Okdie; Sara A. Kruse

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

A Short-Range Forecasting Experiment Conducted during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP), a dedicated forecast center conducted experiments in mesoscale forecasting. Several forecast products, including a marine forecast and a site-specific public forecast, were written every 3 h. ...

K. A. Macdonald; M. Danks; J. D. Abraham

1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

forecasts  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 106. Average annual minemouth coal prices by region, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per million Btu) Appalachia Interior West US Average

436

MEMORANDUM I TO: FILE DATE  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

MEMORANDUM MEMORANDUM I TO: FILE DATE -----_-_- FaOM: ~~,~hkcid!,~- ' ALTERNATE CITY: I\ptw)a.yk --~---_--___-~--~---______ STATE: I current: ------------_------_-~~~~~ if yes, date contacted ____ TYPE OF OPERATION -_---_---------__ 0 Research & Development 6 Facility Type 0 Production scale testing 0 Pilat Scale 0 Bench Scale Process 0 Theoretical Studies Sample $ rraductian & Analysis a Manufacturing I 0 University I (1 Research Organization 0 Government Sponao&ed Facility 0 Cither I ----e------y-------- 0 Disposal/Storage TYPE OF CONTRACT --~_----~__~~~-- ' 0 Prime q Subcontract& q Purchase Order cl Other informatian (i.e., cost + fixed fee, unit pri'ce, time & material, qtc) ------- --------------------~------ Contract/Purchase Order #

437

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables 2-18  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Absolute and Percent Errors, 1985-1999 Publication 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Average Absolute Error (Quadrillion Btu) AEO82 79.1 79.6 79.9 80.8 82.0 83.3 1.8 AEO83 78.0 79.5 81.0 82.4 83.8 84.6 89.5 1.2 AEO84 78.5 79.4 81.2 83.1 85.0 86.4 93.5 1.5 AEO85 77.6 78.5 79.8 81.2 82.6 83.3 84.2 85.2 85.9 86.7 87.7 1.3 AEO86 77.0 78.8 79.8 80.6 81.5 82.9 84.0 84.8 85.7 86.5 87.9 88.4 87.8 88.7 3.6 AEO87 78.9 80.0 81.9 82.8 83.9 85.3 86.4 87.5 88.4 1.5 AEO89 82.2 83.7 84.5 85.4 86.4 87.3 88.2 89.2 90.8 91.4 90.9 91.7 1.8

438

Date Date Date Date Date  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis investigates the problem of regulating the temperature of a conditioned space using a Solar Assisted Air Conditioning Systems (SAACS) prototype located at Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico. The SAACS Prototype consists of a 66 flat plate solar collector array with 115.4 m 2 of selective surface area, a 35 kW single-effect lithium-bromide absorption chiller, a 84 kW cooling tower, a 50 kW auxiliary hot water boiler, a 5700 liter storage tank equipped with flexible stratification manifolds, and a 1800 l/hr air-handling unit. A discrete-time state-space model of the absorption chiller and a linear model of the plant to be controlled (the conditioned space) are identified and presented. Experimental data was used for the determination of these models. A temperature controller was designed and applied to the plant model. This controller operates the absorption chiller under multiple load conditions and regulates the flow in the chilled water line based on the conditioned space requirements. The designed controller was implemented in the SAACS prototype. The system’s

Carlos A. González Lozano; Miguel Vélez Reyes, Ph.D.; Gerson Beauchamp Báez, Ph.D., Ph.D.

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Data Administration Area: Date Issued  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Policy Data Administration Policy Area: Date Issued: April, 1994 Title: Data Administration Last. INTRODUCTION The President established the Committee on Data Administration (CODA) in May, 1992, to advise him on policies in the area of data administration (attached as references Policy ADC 011 and TOR for CODA

Brownstone, Rob

440

Effective Date: MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

complementary goals in aviation and future space transportation, to coordinate planning efforts, and to haveEffective Date: MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING Between DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION FEDERAL AVIATION IN AVIATION AND SPACE TRANSPORTATION I. PURPOSE The Department of TransportatiodFederal Aviation

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

UNDERGRADUATE HANDBOOK 2011 Final Dates  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

............................................................................................................... Friday 23 September Last day for receipt of applications to enrol for 2012 through UAC without financial to be confirmed. Semester & session dates for 2012 First Semester Information Systems Head of School and Professor of Accounting FARGHER, Professor Neil L., BCom Melb MBus RMIT

442

Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

2010-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

443

Decision support for financial forecasting  

SciTech Connect

A primary mission of the Budget Management Division of the Air Force is fiscal analysis. This involves formulating, justifying, and tracking financial data during budget preparation and execution. An essential requirement of this process is the ready availability and easy manipulation of past and current budget data. This necessitates the decentralization of the data. A prototypical system, BAFS (Budget Analysis and Forecasting System), that provides such a capability is presented. In its current state, the system is designed to be a decision support tool. A brief report of the budget decisions and activities is presented. The system structure and its major components are discussed. An insight into the implementation strategies and the tool used is provided. The paper concludes with a discussion of future enhancements and the system's evolution into an expert system. 4 refs., 3 figs.

Jairam, B.N.; Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hardee, H.K.

1988-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

444

Construction Safety Forecast for ITER  

SciTech Connect

The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project is poised to begin its construction activity. This paper gives an estimate of construction safety as if the experiment was being built in the United States. This estimate of construction injuries and potential fatalities serves as a useful forecast of what can be expected for construction of such a major facility in any country. These data should be considered by the ITER International Team as it plans for safety during the construction phase. Based on average U.S. construction rates, ITER may expect a lost workday case rate of < 4.0 and a fatality count of 0.5 to 0.9 persons per year.

cadwallader, lee charles

2006-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

Forecasting future volatility from option prices, Working  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Weisbach are gratefully acknowledged. I bear full responsibility for all remaining errors. Forecasting Future Volatility from Option Prices Evidence exists that option prices produce biased forecasts of future volatility across a wide variety of options markets. This paper presents two main results. First, approximately half of the forecasting bias in the S&P 500 index (SPX) options market is eliminated by constructing measures of realized volatility from five minute observations on SPX futures rather than from daily closing SPX levels. Second, much of the remaining forecasting bias is eliminated by employing an option pricing model that permits a non-zero market price of volatility risk. It is widely believed that option prices provide the best forecasts of the future volatility of the assets which underlie them. One reason for this belief is that option prices have the ability to impound all publicly available information – including all information contained in the history of past prices – about the future volatility of the underlying assets. A second related reason is that option pricing theory maintains that if an option prices fails to embody optimal forecasts of the future volatility of the underlying asset, a profitable trading strategy should be available whose implementation would push the option price to the level that reflects the best possible forecast of future volatility.

Allen M. Poteshman

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

446

MSSM Forecast for the LHC  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on $e^+e^-$ data) is considered, the preferred region (for $\\mu>0$) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-$\\mu$ possibilities.

Maria Eugenia Cabrera; Alberto Casas; Roberto Ruiz de Austri

2009-11-24T23:59:59.000Z

447

Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy Criteria for Technical forecasts of monsoon can significantly aid many sectors like agriculture, power and production industries to the operational forecast, to develop and deliver customized monsoon forecasts based on user need is required

Swathi, P S

448

Short-term streamflow forecasting: ARIMA vs neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Streamflow forecasting is very important for water resources management and flood defence. In this paper two forecasting methods are compared: ARIMA versus a multilayer perceptron neural network. This comparison is done by forecasting a streamflow of ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, auto regressive integrated moving average, forecasting, streamflow

Juan Frausto-Solis; Esmeralda Pita; Javier Lagunas

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

450

Optimal Updating of Forecasts for the Timing of Future Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A major problem in forecasting is estimating the time of some future event. traditionally, forecasts are designed to minimize an error cost function that is evaluated once, possibly when the event occurs and forecast accuracy can be determined. However, ... Keywords: Air Transportation, Dynamic Programming Applications, Forecasting

Juhwen Hwang; Medini R. Singh; W. J. Hurley; Robert A. Shumsky

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand prepared the residential sector forecast. Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Lynn

452

R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1999 NEW and wage growth slow later in the forecast, income growth will average 5% a year between 2000 and 2004. Over the forecast period, population growth will average 0.5% a year. The population will rise from 8

453

R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2001 NEW JERSEY each year. The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey looks for growth in real output of 2.6 percent years. Over the forecast period, both the construction and manufacturing sectors will lose jobs

454

R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2001 NEW JERSEY and 2005, and by an average of 43,000 thereafter (from 2005 to 2020). The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey.6 percent a year over the rest of the forecast period. Personal income will rise 5.6 percent this year, down

455

R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 1999 NEW JERSEY the rate of inflation should remain under 3% a year. (See Table 1.) #12;Throughout the forecast period and wage growth slow later in the forecast period, income growth will average 4.8% a year between 2000

456

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill? Greg Roff,1 forecast skill at high Southern latitudes is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model configurations that differ only in vertical resolution above 100 hPa. An ensemble of twelve 30day forecasts

457

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA or adequacy of the information in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast forecast. Bryan Alcorn and Mehrzad Soltani Nia prepared the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia- Cerrutti

458

R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1998 NEW 1997 will continue-- though at a reduced rate--through the forecast period that ends in 2001. New inflation of about 1.5%. In 1998, R/ECONTM forecasts that employment will rise by 76,000 jobs, or 2

459

R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 2000 NEW JERSEY and 2002, with 84,800 jobs being added over the two-year period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey the rest of the forecast period as foreign immigration declines and the population ages. In the next 10

460

R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuation of the current expansion but at a somewhat slower pace in employment through the forecast period will be in services and trade. We also expect considerable growth

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast date actual" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuing but slowing expansion. (See Table 1.) In 1998, employment rose increased by 0.7% in 1998. It will slow a bit over the forecast period as foreign immigration declines. #12

462

R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2000 NEW JERSEY to more inflation and higher interest rates. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey looks for employment.6% a year over the forecast period. The services and trade sectors will provide 90% of the net increase

463

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast, the uncertainty of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity data due to the chaotic dynamics of the atmosphere is the salient reason for errors

Ross, Shane

464

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations

Kim, Kiho

465

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT OF USING FORECASTS Mohamed Zied Ch^atenay-Malabry Cedex, France Abstract: In this paper, we analyze forecast based inventory control policies for a non-stationary demand. We assume that forecasts and the associated uncertainties are given

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

466

Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting Jingtao YAO Chew Lim@comp.nus.edu.sg Abstract Goodness­of­fit is the most popular criterion for neural network time series forecasting. In the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit

Yao, JingTao

467

A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting JingTao YAO Dept of Information on goodness-of-fit which is also the most popular criterion forecasting. How ever, in the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit their target. In order

Yao, JingTao

468

A new class of hybrid models for time series forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Applying quantitative models for forecasting and assisting investment decision making has become more indispensable in business practices than ever before. Improving forecasting especially time series forecasting accuracy is an important yet often difficult ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks (ANNs), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Hybrid models, Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs), Time series forecasting

Mehdi Khashei; Mehdi Bijari

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

469

Update On The Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast & Modeling Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Base Case includes § Medium Demand Forecast § Medium Natural Gas Price Forecast § Federal CO2 Rathdrum Power LLC-ID 4) CO2 Emissions - 2009 Selected Natural Gas Plants Plant level, emission percentage § Significantly lower electricity prices than 6th Plan Forecast, due to lower demand, lower gas prices, deferred

470

RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

or over predicting electricity demand due to poor weather forecasts is several hundred million dollars outages that many in the area experienced. Deep Thunder can also improve generation-side load forecasting by providing high-resolution weather forecast data for use in electricity demand forecast models. Integrating

Manry, Michael

471

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

Industrial production index forecast: Methods comparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this work is to investigate the suitability of different methods as short term forecast tools. It is studied and compared the application of the Kalman filter method with other forecasting methods when applied to a set of qualitative and quantitative information. The work data set is made of qualitative surveys of conjunture and the industrial production index (IPI). The objective is the attainment of short term forecast models for the Portuguese IPI of the transforming industry. After the previous treatment of the data

M. Filomena Teodoro

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

Save the Date - NTSF 2013  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Save the Date Save the Date U.S. Department of Energy National Transportation Stakeholders Forum May 14-16 th , 2013 Buffalo, New York Please mark your calendar to attend the next meeting of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Transportation Stakeholders Forum (NTSF) scheduled for May 14-16, 2013. This annual event will be held at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, located near the downtown business and entertainment districts in Buffalo, New York. The 2013 meeting is co-sponsored by DOE's Offices of Environmental Management and Nuclear Energy and follows several highly successful yearly gatherings. It is co-hosted by the Council of State Governments Eastern Regional Conference and the Northeast High-Level Radioactive Waste Transportation Task Force.

475

OTS NOTE DATE: TO: FROM:  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

TO: FROM: March 25, 1991 A. Williams D. stout P SUBJECT: Elimination Recommendation for the Star Cutter Corporation The .attached memorandum and supporting documents are the basis for our recommendation to eliminate the former Star Cutter Corporation site from further consideration under FUSRAP. The site is located in Farmington Hills, Michigan. Documents discovered to date which indicate use or handling of radioactive material by Star Cutter consist of two Analytical Data Sheets, dated June 29, 1956, prepared by the National Lead Company of Ohio (NLO), an Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) prime contractor. The data sheets report the results of radiological monitoring conducted during operation of an oil- cooled drilling/hollowing machine. The sheets record measurements during

476

A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Solar Cycles Using a Fokker-Planck Equation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \\apj{} \\textbf{732}, 5) with information from other sources, such as precursor and/or dynamo models. The forecasting is illustrated in application to two historical cycles (cycles 19 and 20), and then to the current solar cycle (cycle 24). The new method allows the prediction of quantiles, i.e. the probability that the sunspot number falls outside large or small bounds at a given future time. It also permits Monte Carlo simulations to identify the expected size and timing of the peak daily sunspot number, as well as the smoothed sunspot number for a cycle. These simulations show how the large variance in daily sunspot number determines the actual reliability of any forecast of the smoothed maximum of a cycle. For cycle 24 we forecast a maximum daily sunspot number of $166\\pm 24$, to occur in March 2013, and...

Noble, Patrick L

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

Categorical Exclusion (CX) Determinations By Date | Department...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Determinations By Date September 24, 2012 CX-009335: Categorical Exclusion Determination E85 (Ethanol) Retail Fueling Infrastructure Installation CX(s) Applied: B5.22 Date: 0924...

478

Categorical Exclusion (CX) Determinations By Date | Department...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

By Date April 11, 2011 CX-005702: Categorical Exclusion Determination Residential Ground Source Heat Pump Installation - Schmitz, Mary C. Date: 04112011 Location(s): Minnesota...

479

Table 14a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Constant Dollars" " (constant dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour in ""dollar year"" specific to each AEO)"...

480

Request Log Closedl Date Yes  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

6 FOIA 6 FOIA - Request Log Closedl Date Yes 01 127106 Yes 02/23/06 Yes 04/05/06 Yes 04/03/06 Yes 04/03/06 Yes 05/22/06 Yes 35/30/06 - No. - 00 1 - 002 - 003 - 004 005 006 - 307 - Dated 01 125106 0211 6106 03/29/06 03/31 106 14/03/06 1511 8/06 )5/22/06 Date Rec'd 0 I I2 5/06 02/23/06 03130/06 0313 1 106 04/03/06 05/22/06 05/22/06 HQ or Dir. Direct Transfer from HQ Direct Trans from HQ Direct Direct Transfer 'rom HQ Subject Requesting a list of all your Procurement card holders Requesting copies of any and all Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests submitted to the Department of Energy (DOE) by Donna Wright, the Bradenton Herald, or any other individual that requested documentation or information pertaining to the Loral American Beryllium Corporation (also known as the

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481

How Do Forecasters Utilize Output From A Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecast System? Case Study Of A High-Impact Precipitation Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The proliferation of ensemble forecast system output in recent years motivates this investigation into how operational forecasters utilize convection-permitting ensemble forecast system guidance in the forecast preparation process. A sixteen-...

Clark Evans; Donald F. Van Dyke; Todd Lericos

482

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) ABSTRACT This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the SolarAnywhere platform. The models include satellite derived cloud motion based forecasts for the short to medium horizon (1 5 hours) and forecasts derived from NOAA

Perez, Richard R.

483

New results in forecasting of photovoltaic systems output based on solar radiation forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate short term forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) systems output has a great significance for fast development of PV parks in South-East Europe

Laurentiu Fara

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

485

Artificial Skill and Validation in Meteorological Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a simulation study of multiple regression prediction models for meteorological forecasting are reported. The effects of sample size, amount, and severity of nonrepresentative data in the population, inclusion of noninformative ...

Paul W. Mielke Jr.; Kenneth J. Berry; Christopher W. Landsea; William M. Gray

1996-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

Skill of Multimodel ENSO Probability Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The cross-validated hindcast skills of various multimodel ensemble combination strategies are compared for probabilistic predictions of monthly SST anomalies in the ENSO-related Nińo-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Forecast data from ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

487

Assessing Forecast Skill through Cross Validation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explains the method of cross validation for assessing forecast skill of empirical prediction models. Cross validation provides a relatively accurate measure of an empirical procedure's ability to produce a useful prediction rule from a ...

J. B. Elsner; C. P. Schmertmann

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

488

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

489

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

490

Dynamical Properties of Model Output Statistics Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The dynamical properties of forecasts corrected using model output statistics (MOS) schemes are explored, with emphasis on the respective role of model and initial condition uncertainties. Analytical and numerical investigations of low-order ...

S. Vannitsem; C. Nicolis

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

Scientific Verification of Deterministic River Stage Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One element of a complete verification system is the ability to determine why forecasts behave as they do. This paper describes and demonstrates an operationally feasible method for conducting this type of diagnostic verification analysis. ...

Edwin Welles; Soroosh Sorooshian

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

River flow forecasting with constructive neural network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In utilities using a mixture of hydroelectric and non-hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend upon the reservoir height and the inflow into the reservoir for several months into the future. Accurate forecasts of reservoir ...

Męuser Valença; Teresa Ludermir; Anelle Valença

2005-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

Forecast verification: Its Complexity and Dimensionality  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Two fundamental characteristics of forecast verification problems—complexity and dimensionality—are described. To develop quantitative definitions of these characteristics, a general framework for the problem of absolute verification (AV) is ...

Allan H. Murphy

1991-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Consensus Forecasts of Modeled Wave Parameters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The use of numerical guidance has become integral to the process of modern weather forecasting. Using various techniques, postprocessing of numerical model output has been shown to mitigate some of the deficiencies of these models, producing more ...

Tom H. Durrant; Frank Woodcock; Diana J. M. Greenslade

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

Spread Calibration of Ensemble MOS Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble forecasting systems often contain systematic biases and spread deficiencies that can be corrected by statistical postprocessing. This study presents an improvement to an ensemble statistical postprocessing technique, called ensemble ...

Bruce A. Veenhuis

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

496

Snowfall Limit Forecasts and Hydrological Modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Hydrological flood forecasting in mountainous areas requires accurate partitioning between rain and snowfall to properly estimate the extent of runoff contributing areas. Here a method to make use of snowfall limit information—a standard output of ...

Cara Tobin; Andrea Rinaldo; Bettina Schaefli

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

Ensemble Forecast of a Typhoon Flood Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A high-resolution nested regional spectral model and an ensemble prediction system are combined to forecast the track, intensity, and flooding precipitation arising from Typhoon Winnie of August 1997, which eventually reached supertyphoon status. ...

Brian P. Mackey; T. N. Krishnamurti

2001-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

498

Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a recently developed hurricane ...

Kerry Emanuel; Fabian Fondriest; James Kossin

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

Airborne Volcanic Ash Forecast Area Reliability  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In support of aircraft flight safety operations, daily comparisons between modeled, hypothetical, volcanic ash plumes calculated with meteorological forecasts and analyses were made over a 1.5-yr period. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian ...

Barbara J. B. Stunder; Jerome L. Heffter; Roland R. Draxler

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

500

The ENIAC Forecasts: A Re-creation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The numerical forecasts made in 1950 using the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC) paved the way for the remarkable advances that have been made over the past half-century in weather prediction and climate modeling. We review the ...

Peter Lynch

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z