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1

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 Gorin Principal Authors Lynn Marshall Project Manager Kae C. Lewis Acting Manager Demand Analysis Office Valerie T. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency and Demand Analysis Division Scott W. Matthews Acting

2

Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

4

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

revisions to the EIAís natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

6

Forecasting the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index futures price: interest rates, dividend yields, and cointegration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

forward price series is constructed using interest rate and dividend yield data. Out-of-sample forecasts from error correction models are compared to those from vector autoregressions (VAR) fit to levels and VARs fit to first differences. This comparison...

Fritsch, Roger Erwin

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead James W methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting for lead times up to a day ahead. The very short of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Electricity demand forecasting

McSharry, Patrick E.

8

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

13

2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA J models 1 INTRODUCTION Solar radiation and PV production forecasts are becoming increasingly important/) three teams of experts are benchmarking their solar radiation forecast against ground truth data

Perez, Richard R.

14

Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

15

Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

A Comparison of Forecast Error Generators for Modeling Wind and Load Uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents four algorithms to generate random forecast error time series. The performance of four algorithms is compared. The error time series are used to create real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast time series that statistically match historically observed forecasting data sets used in power grid operation to study the net load balancing need in variable generation integration studies. The four algorithms are truncated-normal distribution models, state-space based Markov models, seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, and a stochastic-optimization based approach. The comparison is made using historical DA load forecast and actual load values to generate new sets of DA forecasts with similar stoical forecast error characteristics (i.e., mean, standard deviation, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation). The results show that all methods generate satisfactory results. One method may preserve one or two required statistical characteristics better the other methods, but may not preserve other statistical characteristics as well compared with the other methods. Because the wind and load forecast error generators are used in wind integration studies to produce wind and load forecasts time series for stochastic planning processes, it is sometimes critical to use multiple methods to generate the error time series to obtain a statistically robust result. Therefore, this paper discusses and compares the capabilities of each algorithm to preserve the characteristics of the historical forecast data sets.

Lu, Ning; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.

2013-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

17

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection- Allowing and Large Submitted to Weather and Forecasting in October 2008, Accepted in January 2009 * Corresponding author precipitation forecasts from a 5-member, 4-km grid-spacing (ENS4) and a 15-member, 20-km grid-spacing (ENS20

Droegemeier, Kelvin K.

18

Comparison of Model Forecast Skill of Sea-Level Pressure Along the East and West Coasts of the United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Comparison of Model Forecast Skill of Sea-Level Pressure Along the East and West Coasts, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington Submitted to: Weather and Forecasting May 2008 Revised recent advances in numerical weather prediction, major errors in short-range forecasts still occur

Mass, Clifford F.

19

1 Emerging versus developed volatility indexes. The comparison of VIW20 and VIX index.1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Modeling of financial markets volatility is one of the most significant issues of contemporary finance, especially while analyzing high-frequency data. Accurate quantification and forecast of volatility are of immense importance in risk management (VaR models, stress testing and worst case scenario), models of capital market and options valuation techniques. What we show in this paper is the methodology for calculating volatility index for Polish capital market (VIW20 Ė index anticipating expected volatility of WIG20 index). The methods presented are based on VIX index (VIX White Paper, 2003) and enriched with necessary modifications corresponding with the character of Polish options market. Quoted on CBOE, VIX index is currently known as the best measure of capital investment risk perfectly illustrating the level of fear and emotions of market participants. The conception of volatility index is based on combination of realized volatility and implied volatility which, using methodology of Derman et al. (1999) and reconstructing volatility surface, reflects both volatility smile as well as its term structure. The research is carried out using high-frequency data (i.e. tick data) for index options on WIG20 index for the period November 2003- May 2007, in other words, starting with the introduction of options by Warsaw Stock

Robert ?lepaczuk; Grzegorz Zakrzewski

20

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

22

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

23

A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

Hnilo, J J

2006-03-17T23:59:59.000Z

24

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2 2. Annual Energy Outlook (Administrationís Annual Energy Outlook forecasted price (of Energy, Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2008-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

26

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2009-01-28T23:59:59.000Z

27

Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-02-09T23:59:59.000Z

29

Comparison of Various Deterministic Forecasting Techniques in Shale Gas Reservoirs with Emphasis on the Duong Method  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

There is a huge demand in the industry to forecast production in shale gas reservoirs accurately. There are many methods including volumetric, Decline Curve Analysis (DCA), analytical simulation and numerical simulation. Each one of these methods...

Joshi, Krunal Jaykant

2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

30

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

2010-01-04T23:59:59.000Z

31

Forecasting with Historical Data or Process Knowledge under Misspecification: A Comparison  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

States' ban on nuclear testing, a nuclear engineer is faced with lack of data, and hence must rely of nuclear stockpiles, or the climate next century, forecasting on all scales has become a crucial part engineer may use historical traffic volume data to predict upcoming flow; a nuclear scientist may use

Steinwart, Ingo

32

THE K-GROUPS AND THE INDEX THEORY OF CERTAIN COMPARISON C  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and Moscovici [12]. Our calculation is obtained by showing that the comparison algebras are a homomorphic im. Monthubert was partially supported by a ACI Jeunes Chercheurs. Manuscripts available from http://bertrand.monthubert.net property, and the index [10, 14, 19, 23, 25, 45]. For instance, the principal symbol of order zero

Monthubert, Bertrand

33

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

35

PostScript file created: April 17, 2005 Comparison of short-term and long-term earthquake forecast models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

forecast models for southern California Agn`es Helmstetter1,3 , Yan Y. Kagan2 and David D. Jackson2 1, Columbia University, New York Abstract We consider the problem of forecasting earthquakes on two different time scales: years, and days. We evaluate some published forecast models on these time scales

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

36

Draft forecast of the final report for the comparison to 40 CFR Part 191, Subpart B, for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The United States Department of Energy is planning to dispose of transuranic wastes, which have been generated by defense programs, at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. The WIPP Project will assess compliance with the requirements of the United States Environmental Protection Agency. This report forecasts the planned 1992 document, Comparison to 40 CFR, Part 191, Subpart B, for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). 130 refs., 36 figs., 11 tabs.

Bertram-Howery, S.G.; Marietta, M.G.; Anderson, D.R.; Gomez, L.S.; Rechard, R.P. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Brinster, K.F.; Guzowski, R.V. (Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

1989-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

A Comparison of Parallel Programming Paradigms and Data Distributions for a Limited Area Numerical Weather Forecast Routine  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Published in proceedings of the 9 th ACM International Conference on Supercomputing, July 1995, Barcelona for producing routine weather forecasts at several European meteorological institutes. Results are shown

van Engelen, Robert A.

38

A comparison between cardiac index and circulatory index in the dog during exercise and during infusion of isoproterenol  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and therefore, the most useable index for circulatory performance. The A-VO difference also reflected changes in circulatory performance induced by exercise, beta adrenergic blockade, and circulatory stimulation by isoproterenol. It is proposed that the A-V... of the heart (18, 34, 65), and A-V nodal destruction (34, 65) have been studied. With complete, or grade III A-V nodal blockade the increase in heart rate in response to exercise is gradual (65). With complete heart block induced by A-V nodal destruction...

Smith, Thomas Lowell

1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Solar Forecasting  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

On December 7, 2012,†DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

40

Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)

Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.

1983-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

42

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia and Sunshine Coast. FURTHER INFORMATION : www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 Links

Greenslade, Diana

43

Forecasted Opportunities  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmospheric Optical Depth7-1D: Vegetation ProposedUsing ZirconiaPolicyFeasibilityFieldMinds" |beamtheFor yourForForecasted

44

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,Ēforecasting of solar- radiation data,Ē Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS DISTRICT FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS DISTRICT FORECASTS IMPROVEMENTS FOR QUEENSLAND across Australia From October 2013, new and improved district forecasts will be introduced in Queensland Protection times FURTHER INFORMATION : www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 PTO> Wind

Greenslade, Diana

46

Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of...

47

Price forecasting for U.S. cattle feeders: which technique to apply?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

0. 04 0. 10 0. 08 0. 06 0. 06 0. 06 sAdvantaged forecast as it was compiled a calendar annual forecast with six months of actual data. All forecasts assume a January Benchmark. 27 Table 4 is the one-quarter ahead forecast comparison which... 12. 30 MAPE 0. 05 0. 05 0. 04 0. 04 0. 04 "All forecasts assume a July benchmark. 28 Table 5 is the two-quarter ahead forecast comparison which is for the second half of the calendar year (i. e. , July - December). The Futures Market...

Hicks, Geoff Cody

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

48

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

there is significant uncertainty in its future intensity, the current forecast is for a slowly strengthening TC which, 3) forecast output from global models, 4) the current and projected state of the Madden with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all

Gray, William

49

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 15 SEPTEMBER 28, 2010  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

Gray, William

50

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 27 OCTOBER 10, 2013  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

Gray, William

51

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 16 AUGUST 29, 2013  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

52

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 12 OCTOBER 25, 2012  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three

Gray, William

53

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 OCTOBER 11, 2012  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

Gray, William

54

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 13 SEPTEMBER 26, 2013  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

Gray, William

55

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 18 AUGUST 31, 2010  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

Gray, William

56

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 11 OCTOBER 24, 2013  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three

Gray, William

57

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 2 AUGUST 15, 2013  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

Gray, William

58

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2012  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

59

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 17 AUGUST 30, 2012  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

Gray, William

60

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 4 AUGUST 17, 2010  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

Gray, William

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 29 OCTOBER 12, 2010  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

Gray, William

62

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 11 SEPTEMBER 24, 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the sixth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

63

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 12, 2013  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

64

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2011  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the third year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

Birner, Thomas

65

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 28 SEPTEMBER 10, 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the sixth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

66

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 13 OCTOBER 26, 2010  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

Gray, William

67

Forecasting wind speed financial return  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

69

SATELLITE BASED SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR IRRADANCE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SATELLITE BASED SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR IRRADANCE - COMPARISON OF METHODS AND ERROR Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources method was used to derive motion vector fields from two consecutive images. The future image

Heinemann, Detlev

70

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

71

A comparison of empirical and neural network approaches for estimating corn and soybean leaf area index from Landsat ETM+ imagery  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for applications such as global climate change predictions. Accurate estimates of LAI can also be used to compen , Hongliang Fangc , Shunlin Liangc a USDA-ARS Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory, Building 007, BARC) empirical methods employing the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and a new SVI that uses green

Liang, Shunlin

72

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

74

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

75

Rainfall-River Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

;2Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program · Minimize losses due management and enhance America's coastal assets · Expand information for managing America's Water Resources, Precipitation and Water Quality Observations · USACE Reservoir Operation Information, Streamflow, Snowpack

US Army Corps of Engineers

76

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

77

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

78

Probabilistic manpower forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1966 Major Subject...: Computer Science and Statistics PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis By JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas A@M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May...

Koonce, James Fitzhugh

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1062ó1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): ďOnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgšssner, G. , and U. K.2005): ďEstimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 OCTOBER 11, 2011  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting in early August. We have decided to discontinue our individual for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

Gray, William

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 1 SEPTEMBER 14, 2010  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all are not developing any new tropical cyclones after Earl and Fiona. We expect Earl to generate large amounts of ACE This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting

Gray, William

82

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 14 SEPTEMBER 27, 2011  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of tropical cyclone activity starting in early August. We have decided to discontinue our individual monthly for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

83

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 14 SEPTEMBER 27, 2012  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of tropical cyclone activity starting in early August. We have decided to discontinue our individual monthly for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

Gray, William

84

Exploiting weather forecasts for sizing photovoltaic energy bids  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Exploiting weather forecasts for sizing photovoltaic energy bids Antonio Giannitrapani, Simone for a photovoltaic (PV) power producer taking part into a competitive electricity market characterized by financial set from an Italian PV plant. Index Terms--Energy market, bidding strategy, photovoltaic power

Giannitrapani, Antonello

85

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE Wensheng Zhang1,* , Hongfu Chen1 and excessive fluctuation of agricultural and livestock products price is not only harmful to residents' living, but also affects CPI (Consumer Price Index) values, and even leads to social crisis, which influences

Boyer, Edmond

86

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer term time range of 30 minutes to 6 hours. As far as short term horizons are concerned, satellite data index images according to the Heliosat method, a semi-empirical methode to derive radiation from

Heinemann, Detlev

87

3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

HESSD 3, 2145­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC ­ Department­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

88

4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

OSD 4, 189­212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

89

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others

90

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

91

TRAVEL DEMAND AND RELIABLE FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

TRAVEL DEMAND AND RELIABLE FORECASTS FOR TRANSIT MARK FILIPI, AICP PTP 23rd Annual Transportation transportation projects § Develop and maintain Regional Travel Demand Model § Develop forecast socio in cooperative review during all phases of travel demand forecasting 4 #12;Cooperative Review Should Include

Minnesota, University of

92

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the consensus forecast produced in 2006, primarily from the decreased demand as a result of the current nationalConsensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks

Mohaghegh, Shahab

93

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW

94

Demand Forecasting of New Products  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Demand Forecasting of New Products Using Attribute Analysis Marina Kang A thesis submitted Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock upon currently employed new-SKU demand forecasting methods which involve the processing of large

Sun, Yu

95

Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

EMGT 835 FIELD PROJECT: Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting By Juan Mario Balandran jmbg@hotmail.com Master of Science The University of Kansas Fall Semester, 2005 An EMGT Field Project report submitted...............................................................................................................................................10 Current Inventory Forecast Process ...........................................................................................10 Development of Alternative Forecast Process...

Balandran, Juan

2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

96

Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

97

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Quantifying PV power output variability,Ē Solar Energy, vol.each solar sen at node i, P(t) the total power output of theSolar Forecasting Historically, traditional power generation technologies such as fossil and nu- clear power which were designed to run in stable output

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

MSSM Forecast for the LHC  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on $e^+e^-$ data) is considered, the preferred region (for $\\mu>0$) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-$\\mu$ possibilities.

Maria Eugenia Cabrera; Alberto Casas; Roberto Ruiz de Austri

2010-12-10T23:59:59.000Z

99

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Ed.. Editor: Jan

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Forecasting oilfield economic performance  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.

Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))

1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

Treatment plan comparison of Linac step and shoot,Tomotherapy, RapidArc, and Proton therapy for prostate cancer using dosimetrical and biological index  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The purpose of this study was to use various dosimetrical indices to determine the best IMRT modality technique for treating patients with prostate cancer. Ten patients with prostate cancer were included in this study. Intensity modulated radiation therapy plans were designed to include different modalities, including the linac step and shoot, Tomotherapy, RapidArc, and Proton systems. Various dosimetrical indices, like the prescription isodose to target volume (PITV) ratio, conformity index (CI), homogeneity index (HI), target coverage index (TCI), modified dose homogeneity index (MHI), conformation number (CN), critical organ scoring index (COSI), and quality factor (QF) were determined to compare the different treatment plans. Biological indices such as the generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD), based tumor control probability (TCP), and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) were also calculated and used to compare the treatment plans. The RapidArc plan attained better PTV coverage, as evidenc...

Lee, Suk; Chang, Kyung Hwan; Shim, Jang Bo; Kim, Kwang Hyeon; Lee, Nam Kwon; Park, Young Je; Kim, Chul Yong; Cho, Sam Ju; Lee, Sang Hoon; Min, Chul Kee; Kim, Woo Chul; Cho, Kwang Hwan; Huh, Hyun Do; Lim, Sangwook; Shin, Dongho

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or

104

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 20 4010 Miles #12;Bay-S Pinellas Bay-UPR Bay Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12

105

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over aÖ (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

Lew, D.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

108

Subhourly wind forecasting techniques for wind turbine operations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Three models for making automated forecasts of subhourly wind and wind power fluctuations were examined to determine the models' appropriateness, accuracy, and reliability in wind forecasting for wind turbine operation. Such automated forecasts appear to have value not only in wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine operating strategies (such as determining when to attempt startup). A simple persistence model, an autoregressive model, and a generalized equivalent Markhov (GEM) model were developed and tested using spring season data from the WKY television tower located near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The three models represent a pure measurement approach, a pure statistical method and a statistical-dynamical model, respectively. Forecasting models of wind speed means and measures of deviations about the mean were developed and tested for all three forecasting techniques for the 45-meter level and for the 10-, 30- and 60-minute time intervals. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a persistence-based approach, using onsite measurements, will probably be superior in the 10-minute time frame. The GEM model appears to have the most potential in 30-minute and longer time frames, particularly when forecasting wind speed fluctuations. However, several improvements to the GEM model are suggested. In comparison to the other models, the autoregressive model performed poorly at all time frames; but, it is recommended that this model be upgraded to an autoregressive moving average (ARMA or ARIMA) model. The primary constraint in adapting the forecasting models to the production of wind turbine cluster power output forecasts is the lack of either actual data, or suitable models, for simulating wind turbine cluster performance.

Wegley, H.L.; Kosorok, M.R.; Formica, W.J.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

Conservation The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

& Resources Creating Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the PNW's Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad's Wild RideNorthwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast ≠≠ Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Dominates ResourceDominates Resource DevelopmentDevelopment Tom EckmanTom Eckman

110

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce

Mohaghegh, Shahab

111

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

112

STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK STAFFREPORT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2.............................................................................................. 10 #12;Introduction and Background This document describes staff's updated 2007 peak demand forecasts

113

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product estimates. Margaret Sheridan provided the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand

114

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined provided estimates for demand response program impacts and contributed to the residential forecast. Mitch

115

2009 CAPS Spring Forecast Program Plan  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

package. · Two 18 UTC update forecasts on demand basis, with the same domain and configuration, running2009 CAPS Spring Forecast Experiment Program Plan April 20, 2009 #12;2 Table of Content 1. Overview .......................................................................................................4 3. Forecast System Configuration

Droegemeier, Kelvin K.

116

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 6 Demand................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast

117

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocateÖ (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Regional-seasonal weather forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast structures Stochastic trajectory Stochastic FTLE field Ensemble forecasting Uncertainty analysis a b s t r of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity

Ross, Shane

120

Paper presented at EWEC 2008, Brussels, Belgium (31 March-03 April) Uncertainty Estimation of Wind Power Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-Antipolis, France Abstract--Short-term wind power forecasting tools providing "single-valued" (spot) predictions associated to the future wind power produc- tion for performing more efficiently functions such as reserves and modelling architec- tures for probabilistic wind power forecasting. Then, a comparison is carried out

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY dmitry.kucharavy@insa-strasbourg.fr Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

122

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

123

Forecast Combination With Outlier Protection Gang Chenga,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Combination With Outlier Protection Gang Chenga, , Yuhong Yanga,1 a313 Ford Hall, 224 Church St SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 Abstract Numerous forecast combination schemes with distinct on combining forecasts with minimizing the occurrence of forecast outliers in mind. An unnoticed phenomenon

Yuhong, Yang

124

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

125

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form

126

Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-term Electricity Demand Forecasting System 1) Obtain Daily Regional Temperatures 6) Estimate Daily WeatherLoad Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l­ Load forecast methodology ­ Drivers of the forecast f i­ Treatment of conservation

127

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections

128

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections

129

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work Sheridan provided the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid

130

Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates

131

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

132

Revised Economic andRevised Economic and Demand ForecastsDemand Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised Economic andRevised Economic and Demand ForecastsDemand Forecasts April 14, 2009 Massoud,000 MW #12;6 Demand Forecasts Price Effect (prior to conservation) - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30 Jourabchi #12;2 Changes since the Last Draft ForecastChanges since the Last Draft Forecast Improved

133

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

134

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN with primary contributions in the area of decision support for reservoir planning and management Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project

135

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN: California Energy Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Martha

136

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION0 Annual Update to the Forecasted  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Values in TWh forthe Year2022 Formula Mid Demand Forecast Renewable Net High Demand Forecast Renewable Net Low Demand Forecast Renewable Net #12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION5 Demand Forecast · Retail Sales Forecast from California Energy Demand 2012 2022(CED 2011), Adopted Forecast* ­ Form 1.1c · Demand Forecast

138

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Price Forecasts 4. Updated load-resource balance by zones\\ regions ∑ Energy ∑ Capacity 5. Impact Higher Coal Prices Medium Long-term Trend Forecasts for PNW Zones 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1 Northwest Power and Conservation Council Comparison of Annual Average Energy Draft 6th Plan vs. Interim

140

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts

142

Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil ForecasterÖ (more)

Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

Paper accepted for presentation at 2003 IEEE Bologna PowerTech Conference, June 23-26, Bologna, Italy Wind Power Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, Italy Wind Power Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Networks Enhanced with On-line Prediction Risk) as input, to predict the power production of wind park8 48 hours ahead. The prediction system integrates of the numerical weather predictions. Index Term-Wind power, short-term forecasting, numerical weather predictions

Paris-Sud XI, Universitť de

144

Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Management forecast credibility and underreaction to news  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this paper, we first document evidence of underreaction to management forecast news. We then hypothesize that the credibility of the forecast influences the magnitude of this underreaction. Relying on evidence that more ...

Ng, Jeffrey

146

Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

Goodman, Theodore H.

147

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay Fei://www.marine.maine.edu/~eboss/index.html http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/ LONG-TERM GOALS Modeling and predicting ocean optical properties for coastal waters requires linking optical properties with the physical, chemical, and biological processes

Boss, Emmanuel S.

149

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr¬īed¬īeric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.

150

5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

151

Ensemble Forecast of Analyses With Uncertainty Estimation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble Forecast of Analyses With Uncertainty Estimation Vivien Mallet1,2, Gilles Stoltz3 2012 Mallet, Stoltz, Zhuk, Nakonechniy Ensemble Forecast of Analyses November 2012 1 / 14 hal-00947755,version1-21Feb2014 #12;Objective To produce the best forecast of a model state using a data assimilation

Boyer, Edmond

152

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

153

Load forecast and treatment of conservation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservationLoad forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast

154

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections of commercial floor space

155

FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs

156

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy for demand response program impacts and contributed to the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared

157

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work provided estimates for demand response program impacts and contributed to the residential forecast. Mitch

158

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

159

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013

160

Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

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We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Radar-Derived Forecasts of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over Houston, Texas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

,399 unique cells, and 1,028,510 to find the best lightning forecast criteria. Results show that using 30 dBZ at the -20 ?C isotherm on cells within 75 km of the radar that have been tracked for at least 2 consecutive scan produces the best forecasts... with a critical success index (CSI) of 0.71. The best VII predictor was 0.734 kg m-2 on cells within 75 km of the radar that have been tracked for at least 2 consecutive scans iv producing a CSI of 0.68. Results of this study further suggest...

Mosier, Richard Matthew

2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

162

Forecasting Distributions with Experts Advice  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) is the probability forecast based on an arbitrary vector wE in the unit simplex, experts forecasts ?ąE , and model {p?} . Remark 2 In most cases, we can choose c = 1/?, implying in the result below that c? = 1. Example 3 The prediction function is a mixture... 0 = 1, and #IT (k) = tk+1 ? tk. Define ek ? E. Theorem 12 Under Conditions 1 and 7, R1,...,t (pW ) ? c? K? k=0 Rt(k),...,t(k+1)?1 ( p?(e(k)) ) + c ln (#E) ?c K? k=1 ln ut(k) (ek, ek?1)? c K? k=0 t(k+1)?2? s=t(k) ln (us+1 (ek, ek)) . 9 Remark 13...

Sancetta, Alessio

2006-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

163

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Office of InspectorConcentrating Solar Power Basics (TheEtelligence (SmartHome Kyoung's pictureFlintFlowerForecast

164

A leading index of drilling activity: Update and improvements  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A five-component composite leading index of United States rotary rig drilling activity is updated. The index is presented for 1949 through April 1986 and is shown to consistently lead turning points in drilling activity. Seven new leading indices based on some new components are also presented. A forecast of drilling activity is made for the remainder of 1986 based on the leading index and the current economic condition of the petroleum industry. The methods used to prepare time series and construct indices are reviewed.

Buell, R.S.; Maurer, R.A.

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the single individual forecasts. Several studies have shown that combining forecasts can be a useful hedge against structural breaks, and forecast combinations are often more stable than single forecasts (e.g. Hendry and Clements, 2004, Stock and Watson, 2004... in expectations. Hence, we have the following. Corollary 4 Suppose maxt?T kl (Yt, hwt,Xti)kr ? A taking expectation on the left hand side, adding 2A ? T and setting ? = 0 in mT (?), i.e. TX t=1 E [lt (wt)? lt (ut...

Sancetta, Alessio

167

Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

168

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

169

Solid low-level waste forecasting guide  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford`s experience within the last six years. Hanford`s forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford`s annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford`s forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data.

Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

The Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American...

171

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud://www.dis.anl.gov/projects/windpowerforecasting.html IAWind 2010 Ames, IA, April 6, 2010 #12;Outline Background Using wind power forecasts in market operations ­ Current status in U.S. markets ­ Handling uncertainties in system operations ­ Wind power

Kemner, Ken

172

U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast Spring ≠ Fall 2012 As of December 15, 2011 Prepared by AEC Preliminary & Advisory #12;U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 Overview ∑ Campus by campus ∑ Snapshot in time ≠ Not all projects ∑ Construction coordination efforts

Kamat, Vineet R.

173

NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts

174

A Statistical Solar Flare Forecast Method  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction has been developed, which uses only the event statistics of flares already observed. The method is simple, objective, and makes few ad hoc assumptions. It is argued that this approach should be used to provide a baseline prediction for certain space weather purposes, upon which other methods, incorporating additional information, can improve. A practical implementation of the method for whole-Sun prediction of Geostationary Observational Environment Satellite (GOES) events is described in detail, and is demonstrated for 4 November 2003, the day of the largest recorded GOES flare. A test of the method is described based on the historical record of GOES events (1975-2003), and a detailed comparison is made with US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predictions for 1987-2003. Although the NOAA forecasts incorporate a variety of other information, the present method out-performs the NOAA method in predicting mean numbers of event days, for both M-X and X events. Skill scores and other measures show that the present method is slightly less accurate at predicting M-X events than the NOAA method, but substantially more accurate at predicting X events, which are important contributors to space weather.

M. S. Wheatland

2005-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

175

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

176

Ensemble forecast of analyses: Coupling data assimilation and sequential aggregation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble forecast of analyses: Coupling data assimilation and sequential aggregation Vivien Mallet1. [1] Sequential aggregation is an ensemble forecasting approach that weights each ensemble member based on past observations and past forecasts. This approach has several limitations: The weights

Mallet, Vivien

177

Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is to issue deterministic forecasts based on numerical weather prediction models. Uncertainty canProbabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc discretization than is seen in other weather quantities. The prevailing paradigm in weather forecasting

Washington at Seattle, University of

178

Coordinating production quantities and demand forecasts through penalty schemes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Coordinating production quantities and demand forecasts through penalty schemes MURUVVET CELIKBAS1 departments which enable organizations to match demand forecasts with production quantities. This research problem where demand is uncertain and the marketing de- partment provides a forecast to manufacturing

Swaminathan, Jayashankar M.

179

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Demand Forecast report is the product of the efforts of many current and former California Energy-2 Demand Forecast Disaggregation......................................................1-4 Statewide

180

HIERARCHY OF PRODUCTION DECISIONS Forecasts of future demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

HIERARCHY OF PRODUCTION DECISIONS Forecasts of future demand Aggregate plan Master production Planning and Forecast Bias · Forecast error seldom is normally distributed · There are few finite planning

Brock, David

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
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We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
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181

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions

Parsons, Simon

182

TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts makeCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY

183

Forest Carbon Index | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Office of InspectorConcentrating Solar Power Basics (TheEtelligence (SmartHome Kyoung's pictureFlintFlowerForecastIndex

184

NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the Contributions andData and ResourcesOtherForecasting NREL researchers use solar and

185

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

186

Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo Oldenburg University have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius, 1981), when daily solar radiation forecasts

Heinemann, Detlev

187

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, Jo√£o Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development

Kemner, Ken

188

Inverse Modelling to Forecast Enclosure Fire Dynamics†  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. This thesis proposes and studies a method to use measurements of the real event in order to steer and accelerate fire simulations. This technology aims at providing forecasts of the fire development with a positive lead time, i.e. the forecast of future events...

Jahn, Wolfram

189

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

190

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near­surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

191

Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

Genève, Université de

192

UHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2

193

-Assessment of current water conditions -Precipitation Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;-Assessment of current water conditions - Precipitation Forecast - Recommendations for Drought of the mountains, so early demand for irrigation water should be minimal as we officially move into spring. Western, it is forecast to bring wet snow to the eastern slope of the Rockies, with less accumulations west of the divide

194

A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Tara M. Sinclair , H.O. Stekler, and Warren Carnow Department of Economics The George Washington University Monroe Hall #340 2115 G Street NW Washington, DC 20052 JEL Codes, Mahalanobis Distance Abstract This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts

Vertes, Akos

195

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing and Economics at California State University, Fullerton, the largest accredited business school in California

de Lijser, Peter

196

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

boolean queries Inverted index  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

boolean queries Inverted index query processing Query optimization boolean model September 9, 2014 1 / 39 #12;boolean queries Inverted index query processing Query optimization Outline 1 boolean queries 2 Inverted index 3 query processing 4 Query optimization 2 / 39 #12;boolean queries Inverted index

Lu, Jianguo

198

Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

2011-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

199

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations

Kim, Kiho

202

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT OF USING FORECASTS Mohamed Zied Ch^atenay-Malabry Cedex, France Abstract: In this paper, we analyze forecast based inventory control policies for a non-stationary demand. We assume that forecasts and the associated uncertainties are given

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

203

The Complexity of Forecast Testing Lance Fortnow # Rakesh V. Vohra +  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Complexity of Forecast Testing Lance Fortnow # Rakesh V. Vohra + Abstract Consider a weather forecaster predicting a probability of rain for the next day. We consider tests that given a finite sequence of forecast predictions and outcomes will either pass or fail the forecaster. Sandroni shows that any test

Fortnow, Lance

204

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill? Greg Roff,1 forecast skill at high Southern latitudes is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model configurations that differ only in vertical resolution above 100 hPa. An ensemble of twelve 30day forecasts

205

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

207

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA or adequacy of the information in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections

208

Strategic safety stocks in supply chains with evolving forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

we have an evolving demand forecast. Under assumptions about the forecasts, the demand process their supply chain operations based on a forecast of future demand over some planning horizon. Furthermore stock inventory in a supply chain that is subject to a dynamic, evolving demand forecast. In particular

Graves, Stephen C.

209

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST Energy Demand 2008-2018 forecast supports the analysis and recommendations of the 2007 Integrated Energy Commission demand forecast models. Both the staff draft energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly

210

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

211

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) ABSTRACT This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the SolarAnywhere platform. The models include satellite derived cloud motion based forecasts for the short to medium horizon (1 5 hours) and forecasts derived from NOAA

Perez, Richard R.

212

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

J.B. , 2004: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using localforecast intervals for wind power output using NWP-predictedsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

United States California Solar Initiative Coastally Trappedparticipants in the California Solar Initiative (CSI)on location. In California, solar irradiance forecasts near

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

ORIGINAL PAPER Comparison of point forecast accuracy of model averaging  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

applications Cees G. H. Diks ¬∑ Jasper A. Vrugt √? The Author(s) 2010. This article is published with open access Laboratory, Mail Stop B258, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA e-mail: jasper@uci.edu J. A. Vrugt Institute

Vrugt, Jasper A.

215

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

216

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction ................................................................................................................... 17 INTRODUCTION Since the millennium, the trend for fuel prices has been one of uncertainty prices, which have traditionally been relatively stable, increased by about 50 percent in 2008. Fuel

217

STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

218

Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks...

Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio

2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

219

Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for the designation as UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH SCHOLAR April 2010 Major: Nuclear Engineering DYNAMIC ALGORITHM FOR SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM A Junior Scholars Thesis by LUKE DUNCAN FISCHER Submitted to the Office of Undergraduate... 2010 Major: Nuclear Engineering iii ABSTRACT Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System. (April 2010) Luke Duncan Fischer Department of Nuclear Engineering Texas A&M University Research Advisor: Dr. Stephen Guetersloh...

Fischer, Luke D.

2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

220

Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

Brainard, James Robert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast Summary............................................................................................................ 2 Sixth Power Plan Demand Forecast................................................................................................ 4 Demand Forecast Range

222

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast Energy Demand................................................................................................................................. 1 Demand Forecast Methodology.................................................................................................. 3 New Demand Forecasting Model for the Sixth Plan

223

Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

Wind speed forecasting at different time scales: a non parametric approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The prediction of wind speed is one of the most important aspects when dealing with renewable energy. In this paper we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model, that reproduces accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed, to forecast wind speed one step ahead for different time scales and for very long time horizon maintaining the goodness of prediction. In order to check the main features of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error between real data and predicted ones and we compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

225

Autoregressive Time Series Forecasting of Computational Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We study the predictive power of autoregressive moving average models when forecasting demand in two shared computational networks, PlanetLab and Tycoon. Demand in these networks is very volatile, and predictive techniques to plan usage in advance can improve the performance obtained drastically. Our key finding is that a random walk predictor performs best for one-step-ahead forecasts, whereas ARIMA(1,1,0) and adaptive exponential smoothing models perform better for two and three-step-ahead forecasts. A Monte Carlo bootstrap test is proposed to evaluate the continuous prediction performance of different models with arbitrary confidence and statistical significance levels. Although the prediction results differ between the Tycoon and PlanetLab networks, we observe very similar overall statistical properties, such as volatility dynamics.

Sandholm, Thomas

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

Do Investors Forecast Fat Firms? Evidence from the Gold Mining Industry  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economistsí Gold Price Forecasts,Ē Australian Journal ofDo Investors Forecast Fat Firms? Evidence from the Gold

Borenstein, Severin; Farrell, Joseph

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...

Datta, Shoumen

2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

228

Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...

Chevis, Gia Marie

2004-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

229

The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

Runyan, Bruce Wayne

2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

230

Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

232

Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

0 20 4010 Miles NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

0 20 4010 Miles NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps to Sargent BCH NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102 Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles West Bay #12;Aransas Bay

234

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

235

TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make assumptions about fuel price forecastsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY ENERGY COMMISSION Gordon Schremp, Jim Page, and Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Principal Authors Jim Page Project

236

Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles 1 Adrian E. Raftery, Fadoua forecasting often exhibit a spread-skill relationship, but they tend to be underdispersive. This paper of PDFs centered around the individual (possibly bias-corrected) forecasts, where the weights are equal

Washington at Seattle, University of

237

Forecast Combinations of Computational Intelligence and Linear Models for the  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Combinations of Computational Intelligence and Linear Models for the NN5 Time Series Forecasting competition Robert R. Andrawis Dept Computer Engineering Cairo University, Giza, Egypt robertrezk@eg.ibm.com November 6, 2010 Abstract In this work we introduce a forecasting model with which we participated

Atiya, Amir

238

GET your forecast at the click of a button.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

GET your forecast at the click of a button. EXPLORE your local weather in detail. PLAN your days favourite locations; · Pan and zoom to any area in Australia; · Combine the latest weather and forecast current temperatures across Australia. MetEyeTM computer screen image displaying the weather forecast

Greenslade, Diana

239

Compatibility of Stand Basal Area Predictions Based on Forecast Combination  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Compatibility of Stand Basal Area Predictions Based on Forecast Combination Xiongqing Zhang Carr.) in Beijing, forecast combination was used to adjust predicted stand basal areas from these three types of models. The forecast combination method combines information and disperses errors from

Cao, Quang V.

240

MOUNTAIN WEATHER PREDICTION: PHENOMENOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MOUNTAIN WEATHER PREDICTION: PHENOMENOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY Michael P. Meyers of the American Meteorological Society Mountain Weather and Forecasting Monograph Draft from Friday, May 21, 2010 of weather analysis and forecasting in complex terrain with special emphasis placed on the role of humans

Steenburgh, Jim

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

WP1: Targeted and informative forecast system design  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

WP1: Targeted and informative forecast system design Emma Suckling, Leonard A. Smith and David Stainforth EQUIP Meeting ­ August 2011 Edinburgh #12;Targeted and informative forecast system design Develop models to support decision making (1.4) #12;Targeted and informative forecast system design KEY QUESTIONS

Stevenson, Paul

242

Earnings forecast bias -a statistical analysis Franois Dossou  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Earnings forecast bias - a statistical analysis François Dossou Sandrine Lardic** Karine Michalon' earnings forecasts is an important aspect of research for different reasons: Many empirical studies employ analysts' consensus forecasts as a proxy for the market's expectations of future earnings in order

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

243

Using Large Datasets to Forecast Sectoral Employment Rangan Gupta*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Large Datasets to Forecast Sectoral Employment Rangan Gupta* Department of Economics Bayesian and classical methods to forecast employment for eight sectors of the US economy. In addition-sample period and January 1990 to March 2009 as the out-of- sample horizon, we compare the forecast performance

Ahmad, Sajjad

244

Power load forecasting Organization: Huizhou Electric Power, P. R. China  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Power load forecasting Organization: Huizhou Electric Power, P. R. China Presenter: Zhifeng Hao can be divided into load forecasting and electrical consumption predicting according to forecasting in generators macroeconomic control, power exchange plan and so on. And the prediction is from one day to seven

245

Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· advantage: no NWP data necessary ­ very actual shortest term forecasts possible · wind power inputAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method

Heinemann, Detlev

246

Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1 1 Great Lakes forecasts in operational hydrology builds a sample of possibilities for the future, of climate series from-parametric method can be extended into a new weighted parametric hydrological forecasting technique to allow

247

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium

Stevenson, Paul

248

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

Povinelli, Richard J.

249

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand, and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption

250

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff in the Demand Analysis. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data

251

Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Draft for Public Comment A-1 Appendix A. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation had a tradition of acknowledging the uncertainty of any forecast of electricity demand and developing

252

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica­ tions Services. 1 #12

McBurney, Peter

253

Using Belief Functions to Forecast Demand for Mobile Satellite Services  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Belief Functions to Forecast Demand for Mobile Satellite Services Peter McBurney and Simon.j.mcburney,s.d.parsonsg@elec.qmw.ac.uk Abstract. This paper outlines an application of belief functions to forecasting the demand for a new service in a new category, based on new technology. Forecasting demand for a new product or service

McBurney, Peter

254

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Dean, Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Mira Farka, Ph.D. -- Co-Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Associate Professor

de Lijser, Peter

255

A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

Boyer, Edmond

256

FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions forecasts is 0.05o in latitude and longitude. Solar Radiation model: The model presented in this paper

Perez, Richard R.

257

Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

capital requirements and research and development programs in the alum inum industry. : CONCLUSIONS Forecasting the use of conservation techndlo gies with a market penetration model provides la more accountable method of projecting aggrega...

Lang, K.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

NONE

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

2015-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

260

Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

' · Empirical models quantify our ability to predict without knowing the laws of physics · Climatology skill' model? 2. Dynamic climatology (DC) is a more appropriate benchmark for near- term (initialised) climate forecasts · A conditional climatology, initialised at launch and built from the historical archive

Stevenson, Paul

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

NONE

1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS MARINE SERVICE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS MARINE SERVICE IMPROVEMENTS FOR QUEENSLAND across Australia. FURTHER INFORMATION: www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 From © Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Australia Coastal Waters Zones

Greenslade, Diana

263

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tun√ł Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg M√łller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

264

Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns María J. Olascoagaa,1 and George of Mexico in 2010. We present a methodology to predict major short-term changes in en- vironmental River's mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting fire could not be extinguished and the drilling rig

Olascoaga, Maria Josefina

265

Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surface. In this paper, a case is presented for which the operational Numerical Weather Prediction Model (NWP) HIRLAM

Stoffelen, Ad

266

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and climate models differ. Aaron B. Wilson Context: Global http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ #12;Numerical Weather Prediction Collect Observations alters associated weather patterns. Models used to predict weather depend on the current observed state

Howat, Ian M.

267

Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Facebook IPO ≠ updated valuation and user forecasting Based on: Amendment No. 6 to Form S-1 (May 9. Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette, Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic Extreme Growth JPMPaper Cauwels and Sornette 840 1110 1820 S1- filing- May 9 2012 1006 1105 1371 Facebook

268

FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016 (Issue No. 22) #12;Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff the team of professionals. Second half 2015 VACANCY GRADE REQUIREMENTS / ROLE EXPECTED DATE OF VACANCY

269

Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from an operational gas turbine is summarised for the maintenance engineers. More details on SUMTIME have been to develop a generic model for summarisation of time series data. Initially, we have applied standard

Sripada, Yaji

270

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

271

Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price as traded on the wholesale, short-term (spot) market at the Mid-Columbia trading hub. This price represents noted. BASE CASE FORECAST The base case wholesale electricity price forecast uses the Council's medium

272

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

273

Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

Negative Index Lens Aberrations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We examine the Seidel aberrations of thin spherical lenses composed of media with refractive index not restricted to be positive. We find that consideration of this expanded parameter space allows reduction or elimination of more aberrations than is possible with only positive index media. In particular we find that spherical lenses possessing real aplanatic focal points are possible only with negative index. We perform ray tracing, using custom code that relies only on Maxwell's equations and conservation of energy, that confirms the results of the aberration calculations.

Schurig, D

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

acoustic neuromas comparison: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 Ocean Climate Change: Comparison of Acoustic Engineering Websites Summary: Ocean Climate Change: Comparison...

276

Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

277

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

278

A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

279

Draft Fourth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan, Appendix D ECONOMIC AND DEMAND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AND DEMAND FORECASTS INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY Role of the Demand Forecast A demand forecast of at least 20 years is one of the explicit requirements of the Northwest Power Act. A demand forecast is, of course analysis. Because the future is inherently uncertain, the Council forecasts a range of future demand levels

280

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Fiber optic refractive index monitor  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A sensor for measuring the change in refractive index of a liquid uses the lowest critical angle of a normal fiber optic to achieve sensitivity when the index of the liquid is significantly less than the index of the fiber core. Another embodiment uses a liquid filled core to ensure that its index is approximately the same as the liquid being measured.

Weiss, Jonathan David (Albuquerque, NM)

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information for wind farm management, but they are not perfect. ChapterÖ (more)

Mauch, Brandon Keith

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

CVP Generation Project Use First Preference Purchases and Exchanges Base Resource February 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource February 2014 January...

284

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Use First Preference Purchases and Exchanges Base Resource April 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource April 2014 March 2015 Exceedence Level: 90% (Dry)...

285

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Preference Month CVP Generation Project Use First Preference Purchases and Exchanges Base Resource May 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource May 2014 April...

286

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

based on Green Book ("Above Normal") values. Base Resource March 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource March 2014 February 2015 Exceedence Level: 90%...

287

analytical energy forecasting: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

COMMISSION Tom Gorin Lynn Marshall Principal Author Tom Gorin Project 11 Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Computer Technologies and...

288

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind...

289

Forecasting the underlying potential governing climatic time series  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for `potential analysis' of climatic tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting climate transitions and bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis.

Livina, V N; Mudelsee, M; Lenton, T M

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

Econometric model and futures markets commodity price forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Versus CCll1rnercial Econometric M:ldels." Uni- versity ofWorking Paper No. 72 ECONOMETRIC ! 'econometric forecasts with the futures

Just, Richard E.; Rausser, Gordon C.

1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery , Michael Trick Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. nihat

Gordon, Geoffrey J.

292

The development of an improved human capital index for assessing and forecasting national capacity and development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

............................................................. 144 9 Nobel Prize Laureates in a Country (1901-2005) as a Percent of the Total Number of Nobel Prize Laureates in the World................................ 144 10 Number of Olympic Medals Won by a Country (1998-2005) as a Percent... of the Total Number of Olympic Medals Won by All Countries (1998-2005).......................................................................... 145 11 School Life Expectancy in Years................................................................ 146...

Verkhohlyad, Olha

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

293

State-of-the art of freight forecast modeling: lessons learned and the road ahead  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of-the art of freight forecast modeling: lessons learned andof goods as well as to forecast the expected future truckused for the short-term forecasts of freight volumes on

Chow, Joseph Y.; Yang, Choon Heon; Regan, Amelia C.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

Electricity Demand Forecasting using Gaussian Processes Manuel Blum and Martin Riedmiller  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Electricity Demand Forecasting using Gaussian Processes Manuel Blum and Martin Riedmiller Abstract We present an electricity demand forecasting algorithm based on Gaussian processes. By introducing. Introduction Electricity demand forecasting is an important aspect of the control and scheduling of power

Teschner, Matthias

295

Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting is arguably the most critical component of airline management. Essentially, airlines forecast demand to plan the supply of services to respond to that demand. Forecasts of short-term demand facilitate tactical ...

Wickham, Richard Robert

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) "of EnergyEnergyENERGYWomen Owned SmallOf TheViolations | Department of EnergyisWilliamForecasting

298

Renewable Forecast Min-Max2020.xls  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -the Mid-Infrared at 278, 298,NIST31 ORV 15051SoilWind Energy Wind RenewableForecast

299

Forecast calls for better models | EMSL  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-SeriesFlickr Flickr Editor's note: Since theNational SupplementalFor theForecast

300

NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Facilities  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the Contributions andData and Resources NREL resource assessment and forecasting

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Research Staff  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the Contributions andData and Resources NREL resource assessment and forecastingResearch

302

Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

114 Solar Irradiance And Power Output Variabilityand L. Bangyin. Online 24-h solar power forecasting based onNielsen. Online short-term solar power forecasting. Solar

Marquez, Ricardo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast ................................................................................................. 2 Economic Drivers of Residential Demand

304

Improving baseline forecasts in a 500-industry dynamic CGE model of the USA.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??MONASH-style CGE models have been used to generate baseline forecasts illustrating how an economy is likely to evolve through time. One application of such forecastsÖ (more)

Mavromatis, Peter George

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing ďquasi-deterministicĒ components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

306

Distribution Based Data Filtering for Financial Time Series Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

recent past. In this paper, we address the challenge of forecasting the behavior of time series using@unimelb.edu.au Abstract. Changes in the distribution of financial time series, particularly stock market prices, can of stock prices, which aims to forecast the future values of the price of a stock, in order to obtain

Bailey, James

307

On the reliability of seasonal forecasts Antje Weisheimer  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

On the reliability of seasonal forecasts Antje Weisheimer Weisheimer to achieving a "5"? à Use reliability of non-climatological forecastsDon: · if (X) C(X) à climatological (reliable) informaDon · if (X) C(X) à

Stevenson, Paul

308

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of smart grid initiatives is significantly increasing the fraction of grid energy contributed by renewables existing forecast-based models. I. INTRODUCTION A key goal of smart grid efforts is to substantially-based prediction models built using seven distinct weather forecast metrics are 27% more accurate for our site than

Shenoy, Prashant

309

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- namic reserve quantification [8], for the optimal oper- ation of combined wind-hydro power plants [5, 1Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power

Boyer, Edmond

310

FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting water

Keller, Arturo A.

311

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

312

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

Washington at Seattle, University of

313

Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-- Photovoltaic systems, Batteries, Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION This paper presents first results of a study Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

314

Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

distribution; Numerical weather prediction; Skewed distribution; Truncated data; Wind energy. 1. INTRODUCTION- native. Purely statistical methods have been applied to short-range forecasts for wind speed only a fewProbabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc

Raftery, Adrian

315

Introducing the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster Aston Chipanshi1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for crop yield forecasting and risk analysis. Using the Census Agriculture Region (CAR) as the unit Climate Decision Support and Adaptation, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1011, Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK S7V 1B7, Canada The Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF) is a statistical modelling tool

Miami, University of

316

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

Hansens, Jim

317

Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the forecasting algorithm for the different conditions. 1. INTRODUCTION According to the U.S. Department of Energy could take advantage of times when electricity cost is lower, to chill a cold water storage tankForecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines

Hoff, William A.

318

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Verification of hourly forecasts of wind turbine power output  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A verification of hourly average wind speed forecasts in terms of hourly average power output of a MOD-2 was performed for four sites. Site-specific probabilistic transformation models were developed to transform the forecast and observed hourly average speeds to the percent probability of exceedance of an hourly average power output. (This transformation model also appears to have value in predicting annual energy production for use in wind energy feasibility studies.) The transformed forecasts were verified in a deterministic sense (i.e., as continuous values) and in a probabilistic sense (based upon the probability of power output falling in a specified category). Since the smoothing effects of time averaging are very pronounced, the 90% probability of exceedance was built into the transformation models. Semiobjective and objective (model output statistics) forecasts were made compared for the four sites. The verification results indicate that the correct category can be forecast an average of 75% of the time over a 24-hour period. Accuracy generally decreases with projection time out to approx. 18 hours and then may increase due to the fairly regular diurnal wind patterns that occur at many sites. The ability to forecast the correct power output category increases with increasing power output because occurrences of high hourly average power output (near rated) are relatively rare and are generally not forecast. The semiobjective forecasts proved superior to model output statistics in forecasting high values of power output and in the shorter time frames (1 to 6 hours). However, model output statistics were slightly more accurate at other power output levels and times. Noticeable differences were observed between deterministic and probabilistic (categorical) forecast verification results.

Wegley, H.L.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt Global Insight, paid for by the West Virginia Department of Revenue. 2013 WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWest Virginia Economic Outlook 2013 is published by: Bureau of Business & Economic Research West

Mohaghegh, Shahab

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Witten Index and Superconducting Strings  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Yukawa interaction sector of superstring inspired models that give superconducting strings, can be described in terms of a supersymmetric quantum mechanics algebra. We relate the Witten index of susy quantum mechanics with an index characteristic to superconducting string models.

V. K. Oikonomou

2010-01-14T23:59:59.000Z

322

A Cosmology Forecast Toolkit -- CosmoLib  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The package CosmoLib is a combination of a cosmological Boltzmann code and a simulation toolkit to forecast the constraints on cosmological parameters from future observations. In this paper we describe the released linear-order part of the package. We discuss the stability and performance of the Boltzmann code. This is written in Newtonian gauge and including dark energy perturbations. In CosmoLib the integrator that computes the CMB angular power spectrum is optimized for a $\\ell$-by-$\\ell$ brute-force integration, which is useful for studying inflationary models predicting sharp features in the primordial power spectrum of metric fluctuations. The numerical code and its documentation are available at http://www.cita.utoronto.ca/~zqhuang/CosmoLib.

Zhiqi Huang

2012-06-11T23:59:59.000Z

323

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

324

PNNL: Site index  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 - September 2006 TheSteven Ashby Dr. Steven Ashby Photo Dr.1999alt=SearchSite Index

325

INDEX | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home5b9fcbce19 No revision hasInformation Earth's Heat Jump to:PhotonHolyName HousingIIIDrive LtdINDEX Jump to: navigation,

326

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

Marquez, Ricardo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

328

Documentation of the Hourly Time Series NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- 1 - Documentation of the Hourly Time Series from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial condition 1 Jan 1979, 0Z Record 1: f00: forecast at first time step of 3 mins Record 2: f01: forecast (either averaged over 0 to 1 hour, or instantaneous at 1 hour) Record 3: f02: forecast (either

329

Solving the problem of inadequate scoring rules for assessing probabilistic football forecast models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Solving the problem of inadequate scoring rules for assessing probabilistic football forecast forecasting models, and the relative simplicity of the outcome of such forecasts (they require only three their forecast accuracy. Moreover, the various scoring rules used for validation in previous studies

Fenton, Norman

330

Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) uses near-real-time atmospheric observa- tions and numerical weather prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water temperature

331

Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems BRIAN F. FARRELL  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems BRIAN F. FARRELL Division forecast system gov- erning forecast error growth and the tangent linear observer system governing deterministic and stochastic forcings of the forecast and observer systems over a chosen time interval

Farrell, Brian F.

332

Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning Vivien Mallet,1,2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms Vivien Mallet,1,2 Gilles Stoltz,3 forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system Europe in order to forecast ozone daily peaks and ozone hourly concentrations. On the basis of past

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

333

MLWFA: A Multilingual Weather Forecast Text Generation Tianfang YAO Dongmo ZHANG Qian WANG  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MLWFA: A Multilingual Weather Forecast Text Generation System1 Tianfang YAO Dongmo ZHANG Qian WANG generation; Weather forecast generation system Abstract In this demonstration, we present a system for multilingual text generation in the weather forecast domain. Multilingual Weather Forecast Assistant (MLWFA

Wu, Dekai

334

November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade in Services and the Current Account, 2000 of Forecast*** We forecast that the services trade surplus, which declined from 1997 to 1998 and edged upward. That is, from a level of $80.6 billion in 1999, we forecast that the services trade surplus will be $80

Shyy, Wei

335

USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

336

Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

ASSESSING THE QUALITY AND ECONOMIC VALUE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

INFORMATION SYSTEM ∑ Forecast -- Conditional probability distribution for event Z = z indicates forecast tornado #12;(1.2) FRAMEWORK ∑ Joint Distribution of Observations & Forecasts Observed Weather = Forecast probability p (e.g., induced by Z) ∑ Reliability Diagram Observed weather: = 1 (Adverse weather occurs) = 0

Katz, Richard

338

Resource Adequacy Load Forecast A Report to the Resource Adequacy Advisory Committee  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

one hour peak demand and monthly energy assuming normal weather. The Council forecast includes loadsResource Adequacy Load Forecast A Report to the Resource Adequacy Advisory Committee Tom√°s of the assessment is the load forecast. The Council staff has recently developed a load forecast to be used

339

A collaborative demand forecasting process with event-based fuzzy judgements Naoufel Cheikhrouhou a,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A collaborative demand forecasting process with event-based fuzzy judgements Naoufel Cheikhrouhou a July 2011 Keywords: Collaborative forecasting Demand planning Judgement Time series Fuzzy logic a b s t r a c t Mathematical forecasting approaches can lead to reliable demand forecast in some

340

Demand forecast accuracy and performance of inventory policies under multi-level rolling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Demand forecast accuracy and performance of inventory policies under multi-level rolling schedule is to study the behaviour of lot-sizing rules in a multi- level context when forecast demand is subject Interchange to ameliorate demand forecast. Although the presence or absence of forecast errors matters more

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GARCH...

Yang, Xiaorong

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap Lorenzo Pascual, Juan generated by GARCH processes. The main advantage over other bootstrap methods previously proposed for GARCH by having conditional heteroscedasticity. Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH

Romo, Juan

343

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power

Kemner, Ken

344

2007 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report James L. Franklin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

storms 17 4. Genesis Forecasts 17 5. Summary and Concluding Remarks 18 a. Atlantic Summary 18 statistical models, provided the best intensity guidance at each time period. The 2007 season marked the first

345

Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

NONE

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems? M. Hashem Pesaran Cambridge University and USC Andreas Pick De Nederlandsche Bank and Cambridge University, CIMF Allan Timmermann UC San Diego and CREATES January 26, 2009...

Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan

348

Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

349

Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1 David Levinson 2 February, the assumed networks to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went

Levinson, David M.

350

africa conditional forecasts: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

351

An econometric analysis and forecasting of Seoul office market  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study examines and forecasts the Seoul office market, which is going to face a big supply in the next few years. After reviewing several previous studies on the Dynamic model and the Seoul Office market, this thesis ...

Kim, Kyungmin

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

Weather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

................................................................................................. 20 3.1.2 Integrate's Flow of ControlWeather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation: A Step-by-step guide of a Model Run .......................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 The Integrate Subroutine

Sadjadi, S. Masoud

354

Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

355

Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

2015-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

357

Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

Adut, Davit

2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

358

OCTOBER-NOVEMBER FORECAST FOR 2014 CARIBBEAN BASIN HURRICANE ACTIVITY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and hurricanes, but instead predicts both hurricane days and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Typically, while) tropical cyclone (TC) activity. We have decided to issue this forecast, because Klotzbach (2011) has

Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

359

Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

Choi, Han-Lim

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

360

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Seasonal Prediction · POAMA · Issues for future Outline #12;Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Major source Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program El Nino Mean State · Easterlies westward surface current upwelling

Lim, Eun-pa

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Agency: 1982-2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington,Agency: 2004, Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation,Agency: 2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C.

Auffhammer, Maximilian

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

362

Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

Not Available

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties associated with the best...

Ham, Joy L

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

365

A model for short term electric load forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

Tigue, John Robert

1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

it can generate as much or more energy that it needs ? Building activities need N kWhrs per day (solar panels, heating, etc) ? Harvested from solar panels & passive solar. Amount depends on weather ? NWP models forecast DSWRF @ surface (MJ/m2... contract work Saturday Would you plan work for Saturday? Not much detail for Saturday and Sunday With more info could be easier to decide go, no go From deterministic to probabilistic ? Forecast presented as a single scenario ? One scenario presented...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas AkM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May... 1991 Major Subject: Civil Engineering STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Approved as to style and content by: uan B. Valdes (Chair of Committee) alph A. Wurbs (Member) Marshall J. Mc...

Awwad, Haitham Munir

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

2005-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

369

Index of /~lipman/Spain  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Index of /~lipman/Spain. [ICO], Name ∑ Last modified ∑ Size ∑ Description. [DIR], Parent Directory, -. [ ], 1. Derived_categories_and_functors.pdf, 22-Feb-2009 04:

370

Probabilistic wind power forecasting -European Wind Energy Conference -Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Probabilistic wind power forecasting - European Wind Energy Conference - Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting based on kernel density estimators J¬īer¬īemie Juban jeremie.juban@ensmp.fr; georges.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract Short-term wind power forecasting tools

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

371

Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

1997-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

372

Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

Ross, M.H. (Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics); Thimmapuram, P.; Fisher, R.E.; Maciorowski, W. (Argonne National Lab., IL (United States))

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

Inclusion of In-Situ Velocity Measurements into†the†UCSD Time-Dependent Tomography to†Constrain and Better-Forecast Remote-Sensing Observations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to Constrain and Better-Forecast Remote-Sensing Observationsa decade to reconstruct and forecast coronal mass ejectionset al. , 2009b). In this forecast, IPS results are compared

Jackson, B. V.; Hick, P. P.; Bisi, M. M.; Clover, J. M.; Buffington, A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

Comparison of index-3, index-2 and index-1 DAE solvers for nonsmooth multibody systems with unilateral and bilateral constraints  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

constraints. A valve system with a zoom on the cylindrical cam and a standard cam­follower system period can be negligible and we use the Newton impact law with a coefficient of restitution e. If g

Boyer, Edmond

375

Development and validation of an areawide congestion index using Intelligent Transportation Systems data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

REVIEW TABLE OF CONTENTS Page . ut , tv vn tx Advanced Traffic Management Systems . Comparison of Loop Detectors and Road Tubes Loop Detector Data Loop Detector Data Quahty Control. Invalid Data. Missing Data. . Congestion. Congestion... 17 19 19 25 27 27 29 34 36 DATA COMPARABILITY AND ACCURACY RESULTS . . . . . Data Comparability Results ATR S184 Comparisons. ATR S185 Comparisons . Summary Data Accuracy Results. AREAWIDE CONGESTION INDEX RESULTS. Disaggregate Data...

Albert, Luke Perrone

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

376

September 2008 TIMBER & FORESTRY INDEX  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

theme. These may be forest products companies, timber REITs, paper products companies, paper packaging that reduces single stock concentration and gives greater weight to companies more purely exposed to the timberSeptember 2008 TIMBER & FORESTRY INDEX INDEX METHODOLOGY S&P GLOBAL #12;Standard & Poor's: S

377

Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

BARCOT, R.A.

2000-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

378

Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines for Water Demand Time Series Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Water plays a pivotal role in many physical processes, and most importantly in sustaining human life, animal life and plant life. Water supply entities therefore have the responsibility to supply clean and safe water at the rate required by the consumer. It is therefore necessary to implement mechanisms and systems that can be employed to predict both short-term and long-term water demands. The increasingly growing field of computational intelligence techniques has been proposed as an efficient tool in the modelling of dynamic phenomena. The primary objective of this paper is to compare the efficiency of two computational intelligence techniques in water demand forecasting. The techniques under comparison are the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and the Support Vector Machines (SVMs). In this study it was observed that the ANNs perform better than the SVMs. This performance is measured against the generalisation ability of the two.

Msiza, Ishmael S; Nelwamondo, Fulufhelo Vincent

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

Compiler Comparisons  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Compiler Comparisons Using a set of benchmarks described below, different optimization options for the different compilers on Edison are compared. The compilers are also...

383

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13T23:59:59.000Z

384

Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

Bush, Sarah, 1973-

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

Assembling the crystal ball : using demand signal repository to forecast demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Improving forecast accuracy has positive effects on supply chain performance. Forecast accuracy can reduce inventory levels, increase customer service levels and responsiveness, or a combination of the two. However, the ...

Rashad, Ahmed (Ahmed Fathy Mustafa Rashad Abdelaal)

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range. The price of crude oil was $25 a barrel in January of 2000. In July 2008 it averaged $127, even approachingSixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction

390

E-Print Network 3.0 - air pollution forecast Sample Search Results  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

forecast Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: air pollution forecast Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 DISCOVER-AQ Outlook for Wednesay, July...

391

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and†validation. ††Solar†Energy. ††73:5,†307? Perez,†R. ,†irradiance†forecasts†for†solar†energy†applications†based†on†forecast†database. ††Solar†Energy. ††81:6,†809?812. †

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how...

Newton, Nathan J.

2013-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

393

SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS Annette governing the insolation, forecasting of solar radiation makes the description of development of the cloud

Heinemann, Detlev

394

Streamflow Forecasting Based on Statistical Applications and Measurements Made with Rain Gage and Weather Radar  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Techniques for streamflow forecasting are developed and tested for the Little Washita River in Oklahoma. The basic input for streamflow forecasts is rainfall. the rainfall amounts may be obtained from several sources; however, this study...

Hudlow, M.D.

395

Error growth in poor ECMWF forecasts over the contiguous United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Successive improvements to the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting model have resulted in improved forecast performance over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). While the overall performance of the model in this region was found...

Modlin, Norman Ray

1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

Klein, Stephen

397

Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

RESERVOIR RELEASE FORECAST MODEL FOR FLOOD OPERATION OF THE FOLSOM PROJECT INCLUDING PRE-RELEASES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 RESERVOIR RELEASE FORECAST MODEL FOR FLOOD OPERATION OF THE FOLSOM PROJECT INCLUDING PRE-line Planning Mode, the Reservoir Release Forecast Model (RRFM) is being used to test alternatives operating River Forecast Center. The RRFM will make possible the risk-based operation of the Folsom Project

Bowles, David S.

399

THE PITTSBURGH REMI MODEL: LONG-TERM REMI MODEL FORECAST FOR  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 THE PITTSBURGH REMI MODEL: LONG-TERM REMI MODEL FORECAST FOR ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND THE PITTSBURGH made. REMI LONG-TERM FORECAST AND BEA PROJECTIONS This report includes UCSUR's 1998 economic and population projections for the Pittsburgh Region. The purpose of UCSUR's long-term regional forecasts

Sibille, Etienne

400

Associations Between Management Forecast Accuracy and Pricing of IPOs in Athens Stock  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Associations Between Management Forecast Accuracy and Pricing of IPOs in Athens Stock Exchange Dimitrios Gounopoulos* University of Surrey, U.K. This study examines the earnings forecast accuracy earnings forecast and pricing ofIPOs. It uses a unique data set of 208 IPOs, which were floated during

Jensen, Max

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part I: Two-Meter Temperatures  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part I: Two-Meter Temperatures RENATE HAGEDORN European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom THOMAS for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) produced a reforecast dataset for a 2005 version of their ensemble

Hamill, Tom

402

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom JEFFREY S. WHITAKER NOAA/Earth System Research As a companion to Part I, which discussed the calibration of probabilistic 2-m temperature forecasts using large

Hamill, Tom

403

Biennial Assessment of the Fifth Power Plan Interim Report on Electric Price Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Biennial Assessment of the Fifth Power Plan Interim Report on Electric Price Forecasts Electricity prices in the Council's Power Plan are forecast using the AURORATM Electricity Market Model of the entire and 2006 actual electric prices have been more volatile than the Aurora forecast. This is expected because

404

Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation of specialized experts; application to Slovakian and French  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation of specialized experts; application-term forecast of electricity consumption based on ensemble methods. That is, we use several possibly independent¬īerieure and CNRS. hal-00484940,version1-19May2010 #12;Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation

405

Structuring and integrating human knowledge in demand forecasting: a judgmental adjustment approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Structuring and integrating human knowledge in demand forecasting: a judgmental adjustment.cheikhrouhou@epfl.ch Abstract Demand forecasting consists of using data of the past demand to obtain an approximation of the future demand. Mathematical approaches can lead to reliable forecasts in deterministic context through

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

406

Demand Forecast and Performance Prediction in Peer-Assisted On-Demand Streaming Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Demand Forecast and Performance Prediction in Peer-Assisted On-Demand Streaming Systems Di Niu on the Internet. Automated demand forecast and performance prediction, if implemented, can help with capacity an accurate user demand forecast. In this paper, we analyze the operational traces collected from UUSee Inc

Li, Baochun

407

Functional Forecasting of Demand Decay Rates using Online Virtual Stock Markets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Functional Forecasting of Demand Decay Rates using Online Virtual Stock Markets Wolfgang Jank, 2008 Abstract Forecasting product demand is an important yet challenging planning tool for many indus to a product's release. As a result, they are keenly interested in accurately forecasting a product's demand

Jank, Wolfgang

408

EFFECT OF SHARED INFORMATION ON TRUST AND RELIANCE IN A DEMAND FORECASTING TASK  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

EFFECT OF SHARED INFORMATION ON TRUST AND RELIANCE IN A DEMAND FORECASTING TASK Ji Gao1 , John D's trust and reliance. A simulated demand forecasting task required participants to provide an initial. INTRODUCTION Demand forecasting is a task that strongly influences success in supply chains. Inappropriate

Lee, John D.

409

Development of Short-term Demand Forecasting Model Application in Analysis of Resource Adequacy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Development of Short-term Demand Forecasting Model And its Application in Analysis of Resource will present the methodology, testing and results from short-term forecasting model developed by Northwest and applied the short-term forecasting model to Resource Adequacy analysis. These steps are presented below. 1

410

A collaborative demand forecasting process with event-based fuzzy judgments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 A collaborative demand forecasting process with event-based fuzzy judgments Naoufel Cheikhrouhoua to reliable demand forecast in some environments by extrapolating regular patterns in time-series. However for demand planning purposes. Since forecasters have partial knowledge of the context and of future events

Boyer, Edmond

411

NCEP Products Available to Distribute to CONDUIT High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HIRESW) Full  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NCEP Products Available to Distribute to CONDUIT Phase 1 High-Resolution Window Forecast System Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) Full Description Product Location The RTOFS for the North Atlantic resolution nest Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) system Full Description Product Location (hwrf

412

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting that are combined. As a case study, we consider the problem of forecasting monthly tourism numbers for inbound tourism to Egypt. Specifically, we con- sider 33 source countries, as well as the aggregate. The novel

Abu-Mostafa, Yaser S.

413

A NOVEL METHODOLOGY FOR COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT WIND POWER RAMP CHARACTERIZATION APPROACHES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A NOVEL METHODOLOGY FOR COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT WIND POWER RAMP CHARACTERIZATION APPROACHES Arthur.bossavy@mines-paristech.fr Telephone : +33.4.93.95.74.80, Fax : +33.4.93.95.75.35 ABSTRACT Wind power forecasting is recognized as a means to facilitate large scale wind power integration into power systems. Recently, focus has been

Paris-Sud XI, Universitť de

414

Risk Forecasting with GARCH, Skewed t Distributions, and Multiple Timescales  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Risk Forecasting with GARCH, Skewed t Distributions, and Multiple Timescales Alec N. Kercheval describe how the histori- cal data can first be GARCH filtered and then used to calibrate parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 3.2 Data and Stylized Facts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 3.3 GARCH Filter

415

WIND POWER ENSEMBLE FORECASTING Henrik Aalborg Nielsen1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

WIND POWER ENSEMBLE FORECASTING Henrik Aalborg Nielsen1 , Henrik Madsen1 , Torben Skov Nielsen1. In this paper we address the problems of (i) transforming the mete- orological ensembles to wind power ensembles the uncertainty which follow from historical (climatological) data. However, quite often the actual wind power

416

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

Heinemann, Detlev

417

Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power and applications of power market simulation models around the world. Argonne's software tools are used extensively

Kemner, Ken

418

Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T), University of Lome, 114 Rue Agbalepedogan, BP: 20679, Lome, Togo e Center for Agricultural & Energy Policy model of potential biomass supply that incorporates the effect of biological control on crop choice

Gratton, Claudio

419

Classification and forecasting of load curves Nolwen Huet  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Classification and forecasting of load curves Nolwen Huet Abstract The load curve, which gives of electricity customer uses. This load curve is only available for customers with automated meter reading. For the others, EDF must estimate this curve. Usually a clustering of the load curves is performed, followed

Cuesta, Juan Antonio

420

What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from ensemble Kalman filters? Tom from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due to the model (e.g., stochas2c physics as error; part of spread growth from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due

Hamill, Tom

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan, prasanna}@usc.edu I. INTRODUCTION Smart Power Grids exemplify an emerging class of Cyber Physical-on paradigm to support operational needs. Smart Grids are an outcome of instrumentation, such as Phasor

Prasanna, Viktor K.

422

Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

423

Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

or natural gas can impact everything from the21 critical business decisions made within nations on the sentiment of price39 forecasts and reports for commodities such as gold, natural gas or most commonly oil economy. Commodity prices are key economical20 drivers in the market. Raw products such as oil, gold

de Freitas, Nando

424

Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, such as over- supply or scarcity, from historical data using computational methods to construct price density. The agent can use this information to make both tactical decisions such as pricing and strategic decisions historical data and identified from observable data. We outline how to identify regimes and forecast regime

Ketter, Wolfgang

425

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

bid is computed by exploiting the forecast energy price for the day ahead market, the historical wind renewable energy resources, such as wind and photovoltaic, has grown rapidly. It is well known the problem of optimizing energy bids for an independent Wind Power Producer (WPP) taking part

Giannitrapani, Antonello

426

Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Speed: Ensemble Model Output Statistics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed and phrases: Continuous ranked probability score; Density forecast; Ensem- ble system; Numerical weather prediction; Heteroskedastic censored regression; Tobit model; Wind energy. 1 #12;1 Introduction Accurate

Washington at Seattle, University of

427

Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a priori102 Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting is to reduce the number

Haak, Hein

428

Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou--In current restructured wholesale power markets, the short length of time series for prices makes are fitted between D&O and wholesale power prices in order to obtain price scenarios for a specified time

Tesfatsion, Leigh

429

URBAN OZONE CONCENTRATION FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN CORSICA  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Perceptron; Ozone concentration. 1. Introduction Tropospheric ozone is a major air pollution problem, both, Ajaccio, France, e-mail: balu@univ-corse.fr Abstract: Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air

Boyer, Edmond

430

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

Shenoy, Prashant

431

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

Shenoy, Prashant

432

Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey on your needs for information on solar energy resources and forecasting. This survey is conducted with the California Solar Energy Collaborative (CSEC) and the California Solar Initiative (CSI) our objective

Islam, M. Saif

433

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

Cerpa, Alberto E.

434

Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract] Nicolas Gast EPFL, IC/LCA2 1015 Lausanne Switzerland nicolas.gast@epfl.ch Dan-Cristian Tomozei EPFL, IC/LCA2 1015 Lausanne Switzerland dan-cristian.tomozei@epfl.ch Jean-Yves Le Boudec EPFL, IC/LCA2 1015 Lausanne Switzerland jean

Dalang, Robert C.

435

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

436

Development of a real-time quantitative hydrologic forecasting model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

TIME ) Ftgure 2. porno(lal f loni daaaga reduction aada possible hy a gives ruspanav ties (acr rrata forecast Ivad (Iacl. The do(ted ll?es In tha figure gives wt essnple uhlclt ahoun that as tha fnrecast land tlaa Incrva. as frua 4 to l4 hours...

Bell, John Frank

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

437

Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1 P Tino 2 J Tepper 3 R Anderson4 B Jones 5 range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different that there exists a long-run relationship between the growth rate of the money supply and the growth rate of prices

Tino, Peter

438

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes Marcel C. Guenther and Jeremy T. The global emergence of city bicycle hire schemes has re- cently received a lot of attention of future bicycle migration trends, as these assist service providers to ensure availability of bicycles

Imperial College, London

439

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study ON EXTREMES · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes (Germany, France) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme Value Theory (EVT) (4) Application of EVT to Verification (5) Frost

Katz, Richard

440

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study on Extremes · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes "Il est impossible que l'improbable n'arrive jamais." #12;3 OUTLINE (1) Motivation (2) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme

Katz, Richard

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study ON EXTREMES · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes "Il est impossible que l'improbable n'arrive jamais." #12;3 OUTLINE (1) Motivation (2) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme

Katz, Richard

442

Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Frequencies in Europe  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Frequencies in Europe Matthew J. Swann;Abstract Flood and wind damage to property and livelihoods resulting from extreme precipitation events variability of these extreme events can be closely related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation

Feigon, Brooke

443

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

444

EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology -  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology 1 The Anemos Wind Power a professional, flexible platform for operating wind power prediction models, laying the main focus on state models from all over Europe are able to work on this platform. Keywords: wind energy, wind power

Boyer, Edmond

445

Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

Valero, O.J.

1996-10-03T23:59:59.000Z

446

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

1988 Bulletin compilation and index  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This document is published to provide current information about the national program for managing spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste. This document is a compilation of issues from the 1988 calendar year. A table of contents and one index have been provided to assist in finding information.

NONE

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

CBER-DETR Nevada Coincident and Leading Employment Coincident Index Rises, Leading Index Pauses  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the seasonally adjusted data reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Nevada Coincident Employment IndexCBER-DETR Nevada Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes1 Coincident Index Rises, Leading Index Pauses The Nevada Coincident Employment Index measures the ups and downs of the Nevada economy using

Ahmad, Sajjad

449

Large Scale Structure Forecast Constraints on Particle Production During Inflation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bursts of particle production during inflation provide a well-motivated mechanism for creating bump like features in the primordial power spectrum. Current data constrains these features to be less than about 5% the size of the featureless primordial power spectrum at wavenumbers of about 0.1 h Mpc^{-1}. We forecast that the Planck cosmic microwave background experiment will be able to strengthen this constraint to the 0.5% level. We also predict that adding data from a square kilometer array (SKA) galaxy redshift survey would improve the constraint to about the 0.1% level. For features at larger wave-numbers, Planck will be limited by Silk damping and foregrounds. While, SKA will be limited by non-linear effects. We forecast for a Cosmic Inflation Probe (CIP) galaxy redshift survey, similar constraints can be achieved up to about a wavenumber of 1 h Mpc^{-1}.

Teeraparb Chantavat; Christopher Gordon; Joseph Silk

2011-04-26T23:59:59.000Z

450

INDEX  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) "ofEarly Career Scientists'Montana.ProgramJulietip sheetK-4InFinding Investigationof MEMORANDUMSTANDARD RESEARCH

451

Index  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

D. H. Thomas Kashaya Porno Ethnobotanical Project G. LawsonTo Trade, or Not to Trade: a Porno Example Mark E. Basgall

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Index  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-SeriesFlickrinformation for planningto FuelIndependent Statistics &Inder WIPP

453

index  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear SecurityTensile Strain Switched5 Industrial Carbon Capture andDeepwaterfors67 From:i6 GreenPower NewsNineIntroduction

454

index  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear SecurityTensile Strain Switched5 Industrial Carbon Capture andDeepwaterfors67 From:i6 GreenPower

455

Bayesian Study and Naturalness in MSSM Forecast for the LHC  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We perform a forecast of the CMSSM for the LHC based in an improved Bayesian analysis taking into account the present theoretical and experimental wisdom about the model. In this way we obtain a map of the preferred regions of the CMSSM parameter space and show that fine-tuning penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of Mz is considered. The results are remarkable stable when using different priors

Maria Eugenia Cabrera

2010-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

456

Continuous Model Updating and Forecasting for a Naturally Fractured Reservoir  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

result in suboptimal decisions and huge disappointments (see Sec. 1.2.2) Reservoir simulation literature indicates that an acceptable level of matching historical reservoir performance is required to establish reliable forecasts. However, this does... and field production. Such capabilities enable continuous and automatic fine-tuning of production controls to optimize project economics and/or some well or reservoir performance stated objective. Remotely activated sub-surface valves on ?smart wells...

Almohammadi, Hisham

2013-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

457

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

458

Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2012-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

459

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

need to consider coal and other fuel prices. This work wascoal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

460

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 1.1 History of Natural Gas8 4.1 U.S. Wellhead and AEO Natural Gas8 4.2 U.S. Wellhead and Henry Hub Natural Gas

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), forprojects much more coal-fired generation (and consequently

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

Indexes to Nuclear Regulatory Commission Issuances, July--December 1993. Volume 38, Index 2  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Digests and indexes for issuances of the Commission (CLI), the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel (LBP), the Administrative Law Judges (ALJ), the Directors` Decisions (DD), and the Denials of Petitions for Rulemaking (DPRM) are presented in this document. These digests and indexes are intended to serve as a guide to the issuances. These information elements are displayed in one or more of five separate formats arranged as follows: Case Name Index; Digests and Headers; Legal Citations Index; Subject Index, and Facility Index.

Not Available

1994-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Indexes to Nuclear Regulatory Commission issuances, January--June 1995. Volume 41, Index 2  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Digests and indexes for issuances of the Commission (CLI), the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel (LBP), the Administrative Law Judges (ALJ), the directors` Decisions (DD), and the Denials of Petitions for rulemaking (DPRM) are presented in this document. These digests and indexes are intended to serve as a guide to the issuances. The information elements are displayed in one or more of five separate formats arranged as follows: Case name index; digests and headers; legal citations index; subject index; and facility index.

NONE

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

464

A bivariate process capability index  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, bivariate and multivariate process capability indices which do consider deviations from the target might be more attractive. 27 REFERENCES [l], J. M. , Juran and F. M. Gryna, Quality Planning and Analysis, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co. , New York, New...A BIVARIATE PROCESS CAPABILITY INDEX A Thesis by SUSAN LOHMER MICHALSKI Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE December 1992 Major...

Michalski, Susan Lohmer

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

BARCOT, R.A.

2005-08-17T23:59:59.000Z

466

INDEX TO VOLUME 144 This index provides coverage for both the Initial Reports and Scientific Results  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the index. Such a reference to Site 871, for example, is given as "Site 871, A:41-103." The Taxonomic Index

467

Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

468

Investigating Keyphrase Indexing with Text Denoising  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this paper, we report on indexing performance by a state-of-the-art keyphrase indexer, Maui, when paired with a text extraction procedure called text denoising. Text denoising is a method that extracts the denoised text, comprising the content-rich sentences, from full texts. The performance of the keyphrase indexer is demonstrated on three standard corpora collected from three domains, namely food and agriculture, high energy physics, and biomedical science. Maui is trained using the full texts and denoised texts. The indexer, using its trained models, then extracts keyphrases from test sets comprising full texts, and their denoised and noise parts (i.e., the part of texts that remains after denoising). Experimental findings show that against a gold standard, the denoised-text-trained indexer indexing full texts, performs either better than or as good as its benchmark performance produced by a full-text-trained indexer indexing full texts.

Shams, Rushdi

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

469

High index contrast platform for silicon photonics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis focuses on silicon-based high index contrast (HIC) photonics. In addition to mature fiber optics or low index contrast (LIC) platform, which is often referred to as Planar Lightwave Cirrcuit (PLC) or Silica ...

Akiyama, Shoji, 1972-

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

Notation Index (there exists) Fn-4  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

;#12;Index Subject Index Absorption rule CL-15 Adjacent vertices GT-3 Algebraic rules for sets CL-15 lineal (= depth-first) spanning tree GT-33 partial GT-45 polynomial time (tractable) GT-43 Prim

Bernstein, Daniel

471

Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Intra-hour wind power variability assessment using the conditional range metric : quantification, forecasting and applications.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The research presented herein concentrates on the quantification, assessment and forecasting of intra-hour wind power variability. Wind power is intrinsically variable and, due to theÖ (more)

Boutsika, Thekla

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

Crude oil prices and petroleum inventories : remedies for a broken oil price forecasting model.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The empirical relationship between crude oil prices and petroleum inventories has been exploited in a number of short-term oil price forecasting models. Some of theÖ (more)

Grimstad, Dan

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

Hodge, B.

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

475

The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

a unique sampling of articles, we examine academic and mediaSample Articles Prediction Source Academic and Trade Totalshow that articles reporting on academic forecasts have

Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Downward†surface†solar†radiation† data†released†at†12†UTC†forecast†shortwave†radiation†with†data†obtained†from†the†radiation:†† A†statistical†approach†using†satellite†data. ††

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is†critical†for†coastal†California†solar†forecasting. ††affecting†solar†irradiance†in†southern†California. ††solar† photovoltaic†generation†(the†southern†California†

Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

Continuous reservoir simulation model updating and forecasting using a markov chain monte carlo method  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

forecasts of well and reservoir performance, accessible at any time. It can be used to optimize long-term reservoir performance at field scale....

Liu, Chang

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

479

Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons index" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Site Index | ornl.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary)morphinanInformation Desert Southwest RegionatSearchScheduled System Highlights Success Stories Contact Us Index

482

Index | netl.doe.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-SeriesFlickrinformation for planningto FuelIndependentProcedures [ICO]EarthIndex

483

Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities, Fiscal year 1995  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Welcome to the US Department of Energy`s Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities. This forecast, which is published pursuant to Public Low 100--656, ``Business Opportunity Development Reform Act of 1988,`` is intended to inform small business concerns, including those owned and controlled by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals, and women-owned small business concerns, of the anticipated fiscal year 1995 contracting and subcontracting opportunities with the Department of Energy and its management and operating contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors. This document will provide the small business contractor with advance notice of the Department`s procurement plans as they pertain to small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business concerns.Opportunities contained in the forecast support the mission of the Department, to serve as advocate for the notion`s energy production, regulation, demonstration, conservation, reserve maintenance, nuclear weapons and defense research, development and testing, when it is a national priority. The Department`s responsibilities include long-term, high-risk research and development of energy technology, the marketing of Federal power, and maintenance of a central energy data collection and analysis program. A key mission for the Department is to identify and reduce risks, as well as manage waste at more than 100 sites in 34 states and territories, where nuclear energy or weapons research and production resulted in radioactive, hazardous, and mixed waste contamination. Each fiscal year, the Department establishes contracting goals to increase contracts to small business concerns and meet our mission objectives.

Not Available

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Compiler Comparisons  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-Series to User Group and UserofProteinNewsatCompiler Comparisons Compiler

485

A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domain has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode revealed that it is crucial to account for basin-wide hydrological response time when assessing lead time performances notwithstanding structural limitations in the hydrological model and possibly large inaccuracies in precipitation data.

Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Phanthuwongpakdee, Kay; Hall, Amanda C.; Bates, Paul D.

2013-11-04T23:59:59.000Z

486

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmospheric Optical Depth7-1D: Vegetation Proposed NewcatalystNeutronEnvironmentZIRKLEEFFECTS OFElaineElectric Grid - Forecasting system

487

NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the Contributions andData and Resources NREL resource assessment and forecasting research

488

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1. Lawrence BerkeleyEnd-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1. Lawrence BerkeleyPower Research Institute. EPRI Research Project Meier, Alan

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

489

Volatility Forecasts in Financial Time Series with HMM-GARCH Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Volatility Forecasts in Financial Time Series with HMM-GARCH Models Xiong-Fei Zhuang and Lai {xfzhuang,lwchan}@cse.cuhk.edu.hk Abstract. Nowadays many researchers use GARCH models to generate of the two parameters G1 and A1[1], in GARCH models is usually too high. Since volatility forecasts in GARCH

Chen, Yiling

490

Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Using Advanced Statistical T.S. Nielsen1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Using Advanced Statistical Methods T.S. Nielsen1 , H. Madsen1 , H considered in the ANEMOS project for short-term fore- casting of wind power. The total procedure typically in for prediction of wind power or wind speed, estimating the uncertainty of the wind power forecast, and finally

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

491

Forecasting the Hourly Ontario Energy Price by Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Forecasting the Hourly Ontario Energy Price by Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines H. In this paper, the MARS technique is applied to forecast the hourly Ontario energy price (HOEP). The MARS models values of the latest pre- dispatch price and demand information, made available by the Ontario

Ca√Īizares, Claudio A.

492

Draft Fourth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan, Appendix C FUEL PRICE FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

C-1 Draft Fourth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan, Appendix C APPENDIX C FUEL PRICE FORECASTS BACKGROUND Since the Council's 1991 Power Plan, fuel prices have been following the low forecast. Figure C-1 illustrates this for world oil prices, and similar patterns apply to natural gas. The last

493

Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process. Abdou K√Ę Diongue this method to the German electricity price market for the period August 15, 2000 - De- cember 31, 2002 and we; Electricity prices; Forecast; GIGARCH process. Corresponding author: Universite Gaston Berger de Saint

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

494

1 Ozone pollution forecasting 3 Herve Cardot, Christophe Crambes and Pascal Sarda.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Contents 1 Ozone pollution forecasting 3 Herv¬īe Cardot, Christophe Crambes and Pascal Sarda. 1;1 Ozone pollution forecasting using conditional mean and conditional quantiles with functional covariates Herv¬īe Cardot, Christophe Crambes and Pascal Sarda. 1.1 Introduction Prediction of Ozone pollution

Crambes, Christophe

495

ANN-based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ANN-based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets Hong Chen Claudio A. Ca~nizares Ajit1 Abstract--This paper proposes an Artificial Neu- ral Network (ANN)-based short-term load forecasting, electricity markets, spot prices, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) I. Introduction Short

Ca√Īizares, Claudio A.

496

THE PREV AIR SYSTEM, AN OPERATIONAL SYSTEM FOR LARGE SCALE AIR QUALITY FORECASTS OVER EUROPE; APPLICATIONS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

THE PREV AIR SYSTEM, AN OPERATIONAL SYSTEM FOR LARGE SCALE AIR QUALITY FORECASTS OVER EUROPE Author ABSTRACT Since Summer 2003, the PREV'AIR system has been delivering through the Internet1 daily air quality forecasts over Europe. This is the visible part of a wider collaborative project

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

497

Hourly Temperature Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, Saudi Arabia Abstract: Hourly temperature forecasts are important for electrical load forecasting temperatures, Artificial intelligence. Dr. R. E. Abdel-Aal, P. O. Box 1759, KFUPM, Dhahran 31261 Saudi Arabia e appropriate actions such as spraying protective fungicides (Francis, 2000; Kim et al., 2002). Road weather

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

498

Ensemble Forecasting of Volcanic Sulfur Emissions in Hawai'i Andre Pattantyus and Steven Businger  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of Hawai'i. The probabilistic forecast products show uncertainty in pollutant concentrations of pollution known as "vog" after volcanic smog. Prevailing northeast trade winds in Hawaii advectEnsemble Forecasting of Volcanic Sulfur Emissions in Hawai'i Andre Pattantyus and Steven Businger

Businger, Steven

499

Reprinted from: Proceedings, International Workshop on Observations/Forecasting of Meso-scale Severe Weather and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-scale Severe Weather and Technology of Reduction of Relevant Disasters (Tokyo, Japan), 22-26 February 1993, 181 technology and powerful workstation approaches in the forecasting workplace. Training and education leading to the weather events should form the basis for any scientific approaches to forecasting those

Doswell III, Charles A.

500

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

LOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da products Supercomputer Facilities DSA/CPTEC-INPE Monitoring products based on remote sensing Training products Numerical Forecast Products Weather discussion Colleting data platform #12;Atmospheric Chemistry