National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for forecast comparisons index

  1. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  2. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  3. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  4. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  5. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  6. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  7. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  8. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  9. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-09-22

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the 'Microbase' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  10. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  11. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  12. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  13. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  14. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  15. Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting Flu March 6, 2016 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del Valle and her team from Los Alamos National Laboratory have developed a global disease-forecasting system that will improve the way we respond to epidemics. Using this model, individuals and public health officials can monitor

  16. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma  ARM AAF Wiki page  Weather Briefings  Observed Weather  Cloud forecasting models  BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated twice/day (12Z and 00Z) Forecast out to 84-hours RUC (updated every 3 hours) Operational RUC forecast only goes out 12 hours (developmental out 24 hours)

  17. Acquisition Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    It is the policy of the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE/NNSA’s forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department’s major site and facilities management contractors.

  18. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  19. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  20. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    generation output by using forecasts that incorporate meteorological data to predict production. Such systems typically provide forecasts at a number of timescales, ranging from...

  1. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications Market Studies LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications ...

  2. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. ... Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. ...

  3. Solar Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Systems Integration » Solar Forecasting Solar Forecasting On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S. solar energy plants. Part of the SunShot Systems Integration efforts, the Solar Forecasting projects will allow power system operators to integrate more solar energy into the electricity grid, and ensure the economic and reliable delivery of

  4. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    probabilistic energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management

  5. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  6. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  7. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  8. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  9. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    based on today's forecast." Del Valle and her team were able to successfully monitor influenza in the United States, Poland, Japan and Thailand, dengue fever in Brazil and...

  10. A New Prognostic Index and Comparison to Three Other Indices for Patients With Brain Metastases: An Analysis of 1,960 Patients in the RTOG Database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sperduto, Paul W. Berkey, Brian M.S.; Gaspar, Laurie E.; Mehta, Minesh; Curran, Walter

    2008-02-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to introduce a new prognostic index for patients with brain metastases and compare it with three published indices. Treatment for brain metastases varies widely. A sound prognostic index is thus important to guide both clinical decision making and outcomes research. Methods and Materials: A new index was developed because of limitations in the three existing indices and new data (Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 9508) are available since the others were developed. All four indices were compared using the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group database of 1,960 patients with brain metastases from five randomized trials. The ability of the four indices to distinguish its separate classes was determined statistically. Advantages and disadvantages of each index are discussed. Results: Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) and the new Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) had the most statistically significant differences between classes (p < 0.001 for all classes). Conclusions: The new index, the GPA, is as prognostic as the RPA and more prognostic than the other indices. The GPA is the least subjective, most quantitative and easiest to use of the four indices. Future clinical trials should compare the GPA with the RPA to prospectively validate these findings.

  11. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  12. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  13. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex...

  14. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am...

  15. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  16. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  17. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  18. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  19. Solar Forecast Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecast Improvement Project Solar Forecast Improvement Project NOAA.png For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more accurate methods for solar forecasts using their state-of-the-art weather models. APPROACH NOAA solar.png SFIP has three main goals: 1) to develop solar forecasting metrics tailored to the utility sector; 2) to improve solar

  20. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection ...

  1. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    EERE-2011-BT-NOA-0013 Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable ...

  2. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  3. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information 2015 DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Project Peer Review Goal Statement Addresses the following MYPP BETO goals:  Advance scientific methods and models for measuring and understanding

  4. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  5. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  6. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  7. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  8. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities Equipment Rental FOC 238910 TBD 3Q FY15/ 3Q

  9. Nucleic acid indexing

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Guilfoyle, Richard A. (Madison, WI); Guo, Zhen (Bellevue, WA)

    2001-01-01

    A restriction site indexing method for selectively amplifying any fragment generated by a Class II restriction enzyme includes adaptors specific to fragment ends containing adaptor indexing sequences complementary to fragment indexing sequences near the termini of fragments generated by Class II enzyme cleavage. A method for combinatorial indexing facilitates amplification of restriction fragments whose sequence is not known.

  10. Nucleic acid indexing

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Guilfoyle, Richard A. (Madison, WI); Guo, Zhen (Bellevue, WA)

    1999-01-01

    A restriction site indexing method for selectively amplifying any fragment generated by a Class II restriction enzyme includes adaptors specific to fragment ends containing adaptor indexing sequences complementary to fragment indexing sequences near the termini of fragments generated by Class II enzyme cleavage. A method for combinatorial indexing facilitates amplification of restriction fragments whose sequence is not known.

  11. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and ... energy technologies based on estimates of future rates of progress and adoption. ...

  12. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  13. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  14. ARM - Heat Index Calculations

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CalculatorsHeat Index Calculations Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Heat Index Calculations Heat Index is an index that combines air temperature and relative humidity to estimate how hot it actually feels. The human body cools off through perspiration, which removes heat from

  15. Site Index - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Site Index Site Index Calendar Hanford Blog Archive Search Site Feeds Site Index Weather What's New Site Index Email Email Page | Print Print Page |Text Increase Font Size Decrease Font Size About Us About Hanford Cleanup Regulators, Boards, Councils Hanford Advisory Board Hanford Natural Resource Trustee Council Environmental Protection Agency Washington State Department of Ecology Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board Hanford History Hanford Site Wide Programs DOE Human Resources Management

  16. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be lower this summer than previously thought. The price for regular gasoline this summer is now expected to average $3.53 a gallon, according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That's down 10 cents from last month's forecast and 16 cents cheaper than last summer. After reaching a weekly peak of $3.78 a gallon in late February, pump prices fell nine weeks in a row to $3.52

  17. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  18. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  19. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  20. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  1. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  2. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  3. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  4. Electronic Document Master Index

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2003-05-15

    This is a web-based records index search engine. Through a simple or advanced search, users can find data sources and records of interest.

  5. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  6. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  7. ARM - Index of Calculators

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Calculators Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Index of Calculators Heat Index Calculations Relative Humidity Calculations Temperature Conversions Windchill Calculations Apache/2.0.52 (Red Hat) Server at education.arm.gov Port 80

  8. ARM - Site Index

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govSite Index Expand | Collapse Site Index Image Library Videos About ARM About ARM (home) ARM and the Recovery Act ARM and the Recovery Act (home) ARM Recovery Act Project FAQs Recovery Act Instruments ARM Engineering and Operations Contacts ARM Facility Contributions to International Polar Year ARM Facility Contributions to International Polar Year (home) ARM Education and Outreach Efforts Support IPY Research Support for International Polar Year (IPY) ARM Organization ARM Organization (home)

  9. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  10. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    rely on an array of VG forecasts suited to different purposes. Some of the most common types of VG forecasts are defined below: 2 This report is available at no cost from the...

  11. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  12. Indexes of Consumption and Production

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    and backward-index estimates; that is, the two-way indexed estimate is the weighted average of the estimates obtained by forward and backward indexing, with higher weight...

  13. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  14. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Capabilities

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Capabilities Best Practices Handbook Helps Industry Collect and Interpret Solar Resource Data Read about this new comprehensive resource for the solar industry. NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research staff provides expertise in renewable energy measurement and instrumentation. Major capabilities include solar resource measurement, instrument calibration, instrument characterization, solar monitoring training, and standards development and information dissemination. Solar Resource

  15. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  16. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  17. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  18. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  19. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  20. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  1. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Conference: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction

  2. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting May 1, 2012 - 3:19pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Second Quarter 2012 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. Since 2008, Argonne National Laboratory and INESC TEC (formerly INESC Porto) have conducted a research project to improve wind power forecasting and better use of forecasting in electricity markets. One of the main results from the project is ARGUS PRIMA (PRediction Intelligent

  3. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical

  4. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, J. M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-11

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  5. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  6. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  7. Fiber optic refractive index monitor

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Weiss, Jonathan David (Albuquerque, NM)

    2002-01-01

    A sensor for measuring the change in refractive index of a liquid uses the lowest critical angle of a normal fiber optic to achieve sensitivity when the index of the liquid is significantly less than the index of the fiber core. Another embodiment uses a liquid filled core to ensure that its index is approximately the same as the liquid being measured.

  8. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  9. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  10. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  11. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  12. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  13. PNNL: Site index

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Site Index # A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z # # 3-D Body Holographic Scanner # A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z A Advanced Computing, Mathematics, and Data Alerts - PNNL Staff Information Applied Process Engineering Laboratory Asymmetric Resilient Cybersecurity (External website) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change Division Available Technologies Awards Awards - Science and Engineering External

  14. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  15. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  16. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting | Department

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    of Energy 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement tools used in Earned Value. This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as estimate to complete (ETC) and estimate at completion (EAC)

  17. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    in Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain April 4, 2014 - 9:47am Addthis On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex

  18. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. PDF icon Report of the External Peer Review Panel More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  19. Auto Indexer for Percussive Hammers

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Auto Indexer for Percussive Hammers presentation at the April 2013 peer review meeting held in Denver, Colorado.

  20. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Webmaster Use this form to send us your comments and questions, report problems with the site, or ask for help finding information on the site. Please enter your name and email address in the boxes provided, then type your message below. When you are finished, click "Send Message." NOTE: If you enter your e-mail address incorrectly, we will be unable to reply. Your name: Your email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home

  1. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  2. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements. WFIP Round...

  3. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other stakeholders better forecast when, where, and how much...

  4. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  5. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  6. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  7. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  8. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  9. Compiler Comparisons

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Comparisons Compiler Comparisons Compiler Comparisons on Hopper There are five compilers available to users on Hopper, the NERSC XE6. All of the compilers on this system are...

  10. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  11. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  12. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  13. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illuminatio...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications PDF icon...

  14. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  15. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  16. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  17. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  18. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  19. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  20. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  1. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The Energy Department will present a live webinar titled "Solar Forecasting Metrics" on Thursday, February 13, from 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. During this ...

  2. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy ofSolar Forecasting Funding Opportunity,DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  3. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  4. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  5. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  6. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  7. Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Frequentist and Bayesian analyses (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological

  8. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  9. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  10. Index Ventures | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    capital firm that invests in companies in the fields of information technology and the life sciences. References: Index Ventures1 This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI...

  11. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOAA Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007 Forecasting Challenge While weather experiments in the heart of Tornado Alley typically focus on severe weather, the CLASIC and CHAPS programs will have different emphases. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Norman, Okla. will provide weather forecasting support to these two Department of Energy experiments based in the state. Forecasting support for meteorological research field programs usually

  12. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  13. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  14. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  15. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  16. Forest Carbon Index | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Forest Carbon Index Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Forest Carbon Index AgencyCompany Organization: Resources for the Future Partner: United Nations...

  17. Energy Development Index (EDI) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Index (EDI) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Development Index (EDI) AgencyCompany Organization: International Energy Agency (IEA) Sector:...

  18. INDEX

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 CLAUSE 6 - COST ACCOUNTING STANDARDS (CAS) LIABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . 9 CLAUSE 7 - DISCLOSURE AND USE...

  19. Index

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    WIPP Baseline Tool - 2004 Home CRA - 2004 Final Recertification Decision CRA Comments & Responses CCA - 1996 CRA CARDs & TSDs CCA CARDs & TSDs Regulatory Tools The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on May 18, 1998, certified the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), located near Carlsbad, New Mexico, as the nations first geologic repository for the disposal of transuranic (TRU) wastes generated by atomic energy defense activities. The EPA next Recertified the WIPP's continuing

  20. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  1. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  2. Lawrence Berkeley Lab Indexing Toolbox

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2003-09-08

    The Lawrence Berkeley Lab Indexing Toolbox is intended to be used in the context of X-ray crystallography experiments involving biological macromolecules. Macromolecules such as proteins form 3-dimensional periodic arrays (crystal) which in turn lead to lattice-like diffraction patterns when the crystal sample is irradiated with collimated X-rays from a synchrotron or other X-ray source. Once the diffraction pattern is captured on an imaging device the next step is to deduce the periodic nature of themore » crystal sample, along with its internal symmetry. this analysis, known as "indexing" is a well-studied problem. However, there are no other implementations designed to operate in an automated setting, in which the human experimentalist is not prosent to manually verify the results of indexing. In particular LABELIT uses three novel algorithms to facilitate automation: a more robust way to verify the position of the incident X-ray beam on the image, a better way to verify that the deduced lattice is consistent with the observed crystal lattice, and new method to deduce the internal symmetry from measurements of the lattice. Moreover, the algorithms are implemented in a Python framework that permits indexing to fail (in rare cases) without crashing the program, thus allowing the software to be incorporated in robotic systems where unattended operation is expected. It will be especially useful for high throughput operations at snychrotron beamlines.« less

  3. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  4. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  5. Laboratory Equipment Donation Program - Site Index

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Site Index Home About Us FAQ Application Contact Us Administrative Login RSS Widget

  6. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  7. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  8. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  9. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am ...

  10. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  11. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  12. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  13. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Department of Energy PDF icon Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  14. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  15. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting UCAR logo2.jpg The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research. APPROACH UCAR value chain.png The team will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through

  16. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  17. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  18. Compiler Comparisons

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Compiler Comparisons Compiler Comparisons Compiler Comparisons on Hopper There are five compilers available to users on Hopper, the NERSC XE6. All of the compilers on this system are provided by Cray, and they are invoked with wrapper modules that ensure that each compiler links with the proper system and MPI libraries. Each of the compilers have a wide variety of options that control the level of optimization of the exectuable code they produce. We have collected several optimization

  19. Department of Energy Standards Index

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    TSL-1-2002 December 2002 Superseding DOE-TSL-1-99 May 1999 DOE TECHNICAL STANDARDS LIST DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY STANDARDS INDEX U.S. Department of Energy AREA SDMP Washington, D.C. 20585 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. This document has been reproduced from the best available copy. Available to DOE and DOE contractors from ES&H Technical Information Services, U.S. Department of Energy, (800) 473-4375, fax: (301) 903-9823. Available to the public

  20. Ardour Global Indexes LLC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Name: Ardour Global Indexes LLC Place: New York City, New York Zip: 10016 Product: New-York based company that manages the Ardour Global Indexes, a set of alternative energy...

  1. index | netl.doe.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Quality Guidelines slider_Fort-Martin_Power-Plant_NETL.jpg Quality Guidelines for Energy Systems Studies OVERVIEW The Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies (QGESS) documents present the methodology employed by NETL in its assessment of energy conversion facility and CO2 transport and storage performance and cost. A clear, transparent methodology is essential for the comparison of different technologies on a consistent basis. These guidelines are intended for use in all NETL studies as

  2. Index2.doc | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Index2.doc Index2.doc PDF icon Index2.doc More Documents & Publications Sylvania Corporation, Hicksville, NY and Bayside, NY - Addendum to July 8, 2004 O:\HOMEPAGE\FOIA\report99.PDF&#0; U.S. Department of Energy 2004 Annual Report

  3. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  4. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon

  5. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data Center (RReDC) Provides information about biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind energy resources. Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center Provides irradiance and meteorological data from stations throughout the United States. Baseline Measurement System (BMS) Provides live solar radiation data from approximately 70

  6. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  7. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  8. A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mellit, Adel; Pavan, Alessandro Massi

    2010-05-15

    Forecasting of solar irradiance is in general significant for planning the operations of power plants which convert renewable energies into electricity. In particular, the possibility to predict the solar irradiance (up to 24 h or even more) can became - with reference to the Grid Connected Photovoltaic Plants (GCPV) - fundamental in making power dispatching plans and - with reference to stand alone and hybrid systems - also a useful reference for improving the control algorithms of charge controllers. In this paper, a practical method for solar irradiance forecast using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The proposed Multilayer Perceptron MLP-model makes it possible to forecast the solar irradiance on a base of 24 h using the present values of the mean daily solar irradiance and air temperature. An experimental database of solar irradiance and air temperature data (from July 1st 2008 to May 23rd 2009 and from November 23rd 2009 to January 24th 2010) has been used. The database has been collected in Trieste (latitude 45 40'N, longitude 13 46'E), Italy. In order to check the generalization capability of the MLP-forecaster, a K-fold cross-validation was carried out. The results indicate that the proposed model performs well, while the correlation coefficient is in the range 98-99% for sunny days and 94-96% for cloudy days. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the GCPV plant installed on the rooftop of the municipality of Trieste shows the goodness of the proposed model. (author)

  9. Locking mechanism for indexing device

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lindemeyer, Carl W. (Aurora, IL)

    1984-01-01

    Disclosed is a locking mechanism for an indexing spindle. A conventional r gear having outwardly extending teeth is affixed to the spindle. Also included is a rotatably mounted camshaft whose axis is arranged in skewed relationship with the axis of the spindle. A disk-like wedge having opposing camming surfaces is eccentrically mounted on the camshaft. As the camshaft is rotated, the camming surfaces of the disc-like member are interposed between adjacent gear teeth with a wiping action that wedges the disc-like member between the gear teeth. A zero backlash engagement between disc-like member and gear results, with the engagement having a high mechanical advantage so as to effectively lock the spindle against bidirectional rotation.

  10. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-10-03

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

  11. Compiler Comparisons

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Comparisons Compiler Comparisons Using a set of benchmarks described below, different optimization options for the different compilers on Edison are compared. The compilers are also compared against one another on the benchmarks. Benchmarks used Using a set of benchmarks described below, different optimization options for the different compilers on Edison. The compilers are also compared against one another on the benchmarks. NERSC6 Benchmarks We used these benchmarks from the NERSC6

  12. Image indexing using color correlograms

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Huang, Jing (Ossining, NY); Kumar, Shanmugasundaram Ravi (San Jose, CA); Mitra, Mandar (Calcutta, IN); Zhu, Wei-Jing (Ossining, NY)

    2001-01-01

    A color correlogram is a three-dimensional table indexed by color and distance between pixels which expresses how the spatial correlation of color changes with distance in a stored image. The color correlogram may be used to distinguish an image from other images in a database. To create a color correlogram, the colors in the image are quantized into m color values, c.sub.i . . . c.sub.m. Also, the distance values k.epsilon.[d] to be used in the correlogram are determined where [d] is the set of distances between pixels in the image, and where dmax is the maximum distance measurement between pixels in the image. Each entry (i, j, k) in the table is the probability of finding a pixel of color c.sub.i at a selected distance k from a pixel of color c.sub.i. A color autocorrelogram, which is a restricted version of the color correlogram that considers color pairs of the form (i,i) only, may also be used to identify an image.

  13. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  14. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  15. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  16. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  17. Berkeley Lab Research Review Magazine Index

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Research Review Magazine A-Z Index Search Phone Book Comments Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Public Information Department News Archive Listing by Subject...

  18. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  19. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Value of Improved Short- Term Wind Power Forecasting B.-M. Hodge and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Sharp Sharply Focused, LLC M. Margulis and D. Mcreavy Lockheed Martin Technical Report NREL/TP-5D00-63175 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

  20. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  1. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  2. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  3. Cloudy Sky RRTM Shortwave Radiative Transfer and Comparison to the Revised ECMWF Shortwave Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Cloudy Sky RRTM Shortwave Radiative Transfer and Comparison to the Revised ECMWF Shortwave Model M. J. Iacono, J. S. Delamere, E. J. Mlawer, and S. A. Clough Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Lexington, Massachusetts J.-J. Morcrette European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reading, United Kingdom Introduction An important step toward improving radiative transfer codes in general circulation models (GCMs) is their thorough evaluation by comparison to measurements directly, or

  4. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  5. Method of identifying features in indexed data

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Jarman, Kristin H. (Richland, WA) [Richland, WA; Daly, Don Simone (Richland, WA) [Richland, WA; Anderson, Kevin K. (Richland, WA) [Richland, WA; Wahl, Karen L. (Richland, WA) [Richland, WA

    2001-06-26

    The present invention is a method of identifying features in indexed data, especially useful for distinguishing signal from noise in data provided as a plurality of ordered pairs. Each of the plurality of ordered pairs has an index and a response. The method has the steps of: (a) providing an index window having a first window end located on a first index and extending across a plurality of indices to a second window end; (b) selecting responses corresponding to the plurality of indices within the index window and computing a measure of dispersion of the responses; and (c) comparing the measure of dispersion to a dispersion critical value. Advantages of the present invention include minimizing signal to noise ratio, signal drift, varying baseline signal and combinations thereof.

  6. Microelectromechanical reciprocating-tooth indexing apparatus

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Allen, James J. (Albuquerque, NM)

    1999-01-01

    An indexing apparatus is disclosed that can be used to rotate a gear or move a rack in a precise, controllable manner. The indexing apparatus, based on a reciprocating shuttle driven by one or more actuators, can be formed either as a micromachine, or as a millimachine. The reciprocating shuttle of the indexing apparatus can be driven by a thermal, electrostatic or electromagnetic actuator, with one or more wedge-shaped drive teeth of the shuttle being moveable to engage and slide against indexing teeth on the gear or rack, thereby moving the gear or rack. The indexing apparatus can be formed by either surface micromachining processes or LIGA processes, depending on the size of the apparatus that is to be formed.

  7. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  8. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  9. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Applications | Department of Energy Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications PDF icon energysavingsforecast14.pdf More Documents & Publications Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications - Report LED ADOPTION REPORT Solid-State Lighting R&D

  10. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  11. Formation of bulk refractive index structures

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Potter, Jr., Barrett George; Potter, Kelly Simmons; Wheeler, David R.; Jamison, Gregory M.

    2003-07-15

    A method of making a stacked three-dimensional refractive index structure in photosensitive materials using photo-patterning where first determined is the wavelength at which a photosensitive material film exhibits a change in refractive index upon exposure to optical radiation, a portion of the surfaces of the photosensitive material film is optically irradiated, the film is marked to produce a registry mark. Multiple films are produced and aligned using the registry marks to form a stacked three-dimensional refractive index structure.

  12. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  13. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  14. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  15. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  16. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy .5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting January 8, 2015 - 12:00pm Addthis The Energy Department today announced $2.5 million for a new project to research the atmospheric processes that generate wind in mountain-valley regions. This in-depth research, conducted by Vaisala of Louisville, Colorado, will be used to improve the wind industry's weather models for short-term wind forecasts, especially for

  17. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar forecasting accuracy by as much

  18. Low Carbon Economy Index 2010 | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Economy Index 2010 Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Low Carbon Economy Index 2010 AgencyCompany Organization: PricewaterhouseCoopers Sector: Energy,...

  19. Plasmonic crystal enhanced refractive index sensing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stein, Benedikt; Devaux, Eloïse; Genet, Cyriaque Ebbesen, Thomas W.

    2014-06-23

    We demonstrate experimentally how the local anisotropy of the dispersion relation of surface plasmon modes propagating over periodic metal gratings can lead to an enhancement of the figure of merit of refractive index sensors. Exploiting the possibility to acquire defocused images of the Fourier space of a highly stable leakage radiation microscope, we report a twofold increase in sensing sensitivity close to the band gap of a one-dimensional plasmonic crystal where the anisotropy of the band structure is the most important. A practical sensing resolution of O(10{sup −6}) refractive index units is demonstrated.

  20. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  1. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach ...

  2. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  3. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  4. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  5. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  6. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  7. NOAA Teams Up with Department of Energy & Industry to Improve Wind Forecasts

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The growth of wind-generated power in the United States  is creating greater demand for improved wind forecasts. To address this need, the Department of Energy is working with NOAA and industry on...

  8. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  9. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  10. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  11. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S. DOE Office

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    of Science (SC) Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear Science Advisory Committee (NSAC) Community Resources Contact Information Nuclear Physics U.S. Department of Energy SC-26/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 P: (301) 903-3613 F: (301) 903-3833 E: Email Us More Information » 05.01.14 Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron

  12. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  13. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  14. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and More | Department of Energy Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision, and More DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision, and More February 12, 2014 - 7:38pm Addthis EERE offers webinars to the public on a range of subjects, from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies to training for the clean energy workforce. Webinars are free; however, advanced registration is typically required. You can also watch archived webinars

  15. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  16. Topic Index to the DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Topic Index to the DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules Topic Index to the DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules Topic Index to the DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules PDF icon Topic Index to the DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules More Documents & Publications ADMINISTRATIVE RECORDS SCHEDULE 20: ELECTRONIC RECORDS ADMINISTRATIVE RECORDS SCHEDULE 20: ELECTRONIC RECORDS ADMINISTRATIVE RECORDS SCHEDULE 12: COMMUNICATIONS

  17. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  18. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  19. Evolution of the spectral index after inflation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Asgari, A.A.; Abbassi, A.H. E-mail: ahabbasi@modares.ac.ir

    2014-09-01

    In this article we investigate the time evolution of the adiabatic (curvature) and isocurvature (entropy) spectral indices after inflation era for all cosmological scales with two different initial conditions. For this purpose, we first extract an explicit equation for the time evolution of the comoving curvature perturbation (which may be known as the generalized Mukhanov-Sasaki equation). It would be cleared that the evolution of adiabatic spectral index severely depends on the initial conditions moreover, as expected it is constant only for the super-Hubble scales and adiabatic initial conditions. Additionally, the adiabatic spectral index after recombination approaches a constant value for the isocurvature perturbations. Finally, we re-investigate the Sachs-Wolfe effect and show that the fudge factor  1/3 in the adiabatic ordinary Sachs-Wolfe formula must be replaced by 0.4.

  20. Hazard index for underground toxic material

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, C.F.; Cohen, J.J.; McKone, T.E.

    1980-06-01

    To adequately define the problem of waste management, quantitative measures of hazard must be used. This study reviews past work in the area of hazard indices and proposes a geotoxicity hazard index for use in characterizing the hazard of toxic material buried underground. Factors included in this index are: an intrinsic toxicity factor, formulated as the volume of water required for dilution to public drinking-water levels; a persistence factor to characterize the longevity of the material, ranging from unity for stable materials to smaller values for shorter-lived materials; an availability factor that relates the transport potential for the particular material to a reference value for its naturally occurring analog; and a correction factor to accommodate the buildup of decay progeny, resulting in increased toxicity.

  1. Matched Index of Refraction Flow Facility

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Mcllroy, Hugh

    2013-05-28

    What's 27 feet long, 10 feet tall and full of mineral oil (3000 gallons' worth)? If you said INL's Matched Index of Refraction facility, give yourself a gold star. Scientists use computers to model the inner workings of nuclear reactors, and MIR helps validate those models. INL's Hugh McIlroy explains in this video. You can learn more about INL energy research at the lab's facebook site http://www.facebook.com/idahonationallaboratory.

  2. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  3. Tree_Select_Probes, Build_Hybr_Index, and Build_Hybr_Table

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-08-01

    Tree_Select_Probes: This program is part of a 3 program package that replaces the older probe selection software. The purpose of the package is to generate probes specific for the group of sequences that belong to a given phylogenetic node. This software employs modified proble selection algorithm that improves speed of calculations in comparison with older software. For each node of the input tree, this program selects probes that are positive for all sequences that belongmore » to this node and negative for all that doesn't. For speed it uses probe database created by build_hybr_index program and hybridization table database created by build_hyper_table program. As a result of calculation, the program prints lists for each node from the tree. Input file formats: FASTA for sequences database, internal INDEX for probe database, internal table for hybridization database. Output file format: text file. Build_Hybr_Index: This program is part of a 3 program package that replaces the older probe selection software. The purpose of the package is to generate probles specific for the group of sequences that belong to a given phylogenetic node. This software employs modified probe selection algorithm that improves speed of calculations in comparison with older software. This program creates database of potential probes based on given sequence database, reducing it in the way so it doesn't contain repeats or substrings with meta-nucleotides. Input file format: FASTA. Output file format: itnernal INDEX file. Build_Hybr_Table: This program is part of a 3-program package that replaces the older probe selection software. The purpose of the package is to generate probles specific for the group of sequences that belong to a given phylogenetic node. This software employes modified probe selection algorithm that improves speed of calculations in comparison with older software. For each node of he input tree, this program selects probles that are positive for all sequences that belong to this node and negative for all that doesn't. For speed, it uses probe database created by build_hybr_index program and dhybridization table database created by build_hybr_table program. As a result of calculation, the program prints lists for each node from the tree. Input file formats: FASTA for sequence database, internal INDEX for probe database, internal table for hybridization database. Output file format: text file.« less

  4. Indexes to Nuclear Regulatory Commission issuances, July--September 1997

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-03-01

    This digest and index lists the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issuances for July to September 1997. Issuances are from the Commission, the Atomic Safety and Licensing Boards, the Administrative Law Judges, the Directors` Decisions, and the Decisions on Petitions for Rulemaking. There are five sections to this index: (1) case name index, (2) headers and digests, (3) legal citations index, (4) subject index, and (5) facility index. The digest provides a brief narrative of the issue, including the resolution of the issue and any legal references used for resolution.

  5. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  6. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below $3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below $3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular gasoline should average $2.33 per gallon this year. The price of gasoline increased in early February after falling for 17 weeks in a row. But gasoline prices will continue to remain low in 2015 when compared with pump prices in recent

  7. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  8. Compressing bitmap indexes for faster search operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, Kesheng; Otoo, Ekow J.; Shoshani, Arie

    2002-04-25

    In this paper, we study the effects of compression on bitmap indexes. The main operations on the bitmaps during query processing are bitwise logical operations such as AND, OR, NOT, etc. Using the general purpose compression schemes, such as gzip, the logical operations on the compressed bitmaps are much slower than on the uncompressed bitmaps. Specialized compression schemes, like the byte-aligned bitmap code(BBC), are usually faster in performing logical operations than the general purpose schemes, but in many cases they are still orders of magnitude slower than the uncompressed scheme. To make the compressed bitmap indexes operate more efficiently, we designed a CPU-friendly scheme which we refer to as the word-aligned hybrid code (WAH). Tests on both synthetic and real application data show that the new scheme significantly outperforms well-known compression schemes at a modest increase in storage space. Compared to BBC, a scheme well-known for its operational efficiency, WAH performs logical operations about 12 times faster and uses only 60 percent more space. Compared to the uncompressed scheme, in most test cases WAH is faster while still using less space. We further verified with additional tests that the improvement in logical operation speed translates to similar improvement in query processing speed.

  9. NEPA Guidance and Requirements - Search Index | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Guidance and Requirements - Search Index NEPA Guidance and Requirements - Search Index The NEPA Guidance and Requirements - Search Index is a one-stop solution providing you with DOE's Guidance and Requirements documents combined into one file for easy download and use. The compressed (.zip) file contains all of these documents in their optimized and machine-readable format. The file also contains a "search index" that can be used to search for keywords and phrases in all the documents

  10. DOERS Records Schedule Cross Index to DOE Administrative Records

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Disposition Schedules | Department of Energy DOERS Records Schedule Cross Index to DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules DOERS Records Schedule Cross Index to DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules Crosswalk between DOERS and Admin Schedules PDF icon DOERS Records Schedule Cross Index to DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules More Documents & Publications DOE Records Disposition Schedule Changes ADMINISTRATIVE RECORDS SCHEDULE 17: CARTOGRAPHIC, AERIAL

  11. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  12. Structures with negative index of refraction

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Soukoulis, Costas M. (Ames, IA); Zhou, Jiangfeng (Ames, IA); Koschny, Thomas (Ames, IA); Zhang, Lei (Ames, IA); Tuttle, Gary (Ames, IA)

    2011-11-08

    The invention provides simplified negative index materials (NIMs) using wire-pair structures, 4-gap single ring split-ring resonator (SRR), fishnet structures and overleaf capacitor SRR. In the wire-pair arrangement, a pair of short parallel wires and continuous wires are used. In the 4-gap single-ring SRR, the SRRs are centered on the faces of a cubic unit cell combined with a continuous wire type resonator. Combining both elements creates a frequency band where the metamaterial is transparent with simultaneously negative .di-elect cons. and .mu.. In the fishnet structure, a metallic mesh on both sides of the dielectric spacer is used. The overleaf capacitor SRR changes the gap capacities to small plate capacitors by making the sections of the SRR ring overlap at the gaps separated by a thin dielectric film. This technique is applicable to conventional SRR gaps but it best deploys for the 4-gap single-ring structures.

  13. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  14. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  15. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  16. Auto Indexer Auto-Indexer for Percussive Hammers: Vane Motor Dynamometer Testing

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Su, Jiann

    2012-01-01

    The development of the motor will help to achieve program technical objectives by improving well construction capabilities. This includes enabling high-temperature drilling as well as enhancing directional drilling. A key component in the auto indexer is the drive motor. It is an air-driven vane motor that converts the energy stored in the compressed air to mechanical energy. The motor is attached to hammer-like components which impart an impulsive load onto the drive shaft. The impulsive force on the drive shaft in turn creates an indexing action. A controlled test was performed to characterize the performance of the the vane motor for a given pressure. The Sandia dynamometer test station was used to determine the performance of the motor for a given input pressure.

  17. Auto Indexer Auto-Indexer for Percussive Hammers: Vane Motor Dynamometer Testing

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Su, Jiann

    The development of the motor will help to achieve program technical objectives by improving well construction capabilities. This includes enabling high-temperature drilling as well as enhancing directional drilling. A key component in the auto indexer is the drive motor. It is an air-driven vane motor that converts the energy stored in the compressed air to mechanical energy. The motor is attached to hammer-like components which impart an impulsive load onto the drive shaft. The impulsive force on the drive shaft in turn creates an indexing action. A controlled test was performed to characterize the performance of the the vane motor for a given pressure. The Sandia dynamometer test station was used to determine the performance of the motor for a given input pressure.

  18. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  19. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  20. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  1. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  2. Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Definition Rating Index (PDRI) Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) The Office of Environmental Management (EM) Project Definition Rating Index (EM-PDRI) is a modification of a commercially developed planning tool that has been tested by an EM team specifically for EM's projects. EM-PDRI Team members represent a number of EM sites, and have already used this project planning tool successfully. The EM-PDRI examines a wide range of project factors related to cost, scope, and schedule, and

  3. http://www.epa.gov/air/data/index.html

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    AirData Page 1 of 1 AirData | US EPA 5/25/2011 http://www.epa.gov/air/data/index.html

  4. Sandia Energy - Results from the Human Resilience Index and Modeling...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Results from the Human Resilience Index and Modeling project were reported recently in the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2030 Report Home Infrastructure Security...

  5. Title 40 CFR 1508 Terminology and Index | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Regulation: Title 40 CFR 1508 Terminology and IndexLegal Abstract Regulations setting forth terminology under NEPA. Published NA Year Signed or Took Effect 2014 Legal Citation...

  6. Sub-picosecond optical switching with a negative index metamaterial...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Sub-picosecond optical switching with a negative index metamaterial Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Sub-picosecond optical switching with a negative...

  7. Finite element approximation of the radiative transport equation in a medium with piece-wise constant refractive index

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lehtikangas, O.; Tarvainen, T.; Kim, A.D.; Arridge, S.R.

    2015-02-01

    The radiative transport equation can be used as a light transport model in a medium with scattering particles, such as biological tissues. In the radiative transport equation, the refractive index is assumed to be constant within the medium. However, in biomedical media, changes in the refractive index can occur between different tissue types. In this work, light propagation in a medium with piece-wise constant refractive index is considered. Light propagation in each sub-domain with a constant refractive index is modeled using the radiative transport equation and the equations are coupled using boundary conditions describing Fresnel reflection and refraction phenomena on the interfaces between the sub-domains. The resulting coupled system of radiative transport equations is numerically solved using a finite element method. The approach is tested with simulations. The results show that this coupled system describes light propagation accurately through comparison with the Monte Carlo method. It is also shown that neglecting the internal changes of the refractive index can lead to erroneous boundary measurements of scattered light.

  8. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  9. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  10. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  11. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energys Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nations low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energys Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  12. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  13. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  14. Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    5060 Sargent & Lundy LLC Consulting Group Chicago, Illinois Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 NREL is a U.S. Department of Energy Laboratory Operated by Midwest Research Institute * Battelle * Bechtel Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337 October 2003 * NREL/SR-550-35060 Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower

  15. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho and Oregon

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy and the electricity industry have jointly invested over $7.9 billion in 99 cost-shared Smart Grid Investment Grant projects to modernize the electric grid, strengthen cybersecurity, improve interoperability, and collect an unprecedented level of data on smart grid and customer operations. 1. Summary Idaho Power Company (IPC)

  16. Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal): Annual compilation for 1994. Volume 19, Number 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-03-01

    This compilation consists of bibliographic data and abstracts for the formal regulatory and technical reports issued by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Staff and its contractors. It is NRC`s intention to publish this compilation quarterly and to cumulate it annually. The main citations and abstracts in this compilation are listed in NUREG number order. These precede the following indexes: secondary report number index, personal author index, subject index, NRC originating organization index (staff reports), NRC originating organization index (international agreements), NRC contract sponsor index (contractor reports), contractor index, international organization index, and licensed facility index. A detailed explanation of the entries precedes each index.

  17. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  18. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  19. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  20. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  1. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  2. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  3. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  4. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast February 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Uncertainties in the Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data,

  5. Asset Utilization Index (AUI) Guidance | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Asset Utilization Index (AUI) Guidance Asset Utilization Index (AUI) Guidance PDF icon AUI Guidance_090227.pdf More Documents & Publications Three Year Rolling Timeline The Department&#8217;s real property assets are vital to the accomplishment of its mission Three-year Rolling Timeline

  6. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  7. Multi-Level Bitmap Indexes for Flash Memory Storage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, Kesheng; Madduri, Kamesh; Canon, Shane

    2010-07-23

    Due to their low access latency, high read speed, and power-efficient operation, flash memory storage devices are rapidly emerging as an attractive alternative to traditional magnetic storage devices. However, tests show that the most efficient indexing methods are not able to take advantage of the flash memory storage devices. In this paper, we present a set of multi-level bitmap indexes that can effectively take advantage of flash storage devices. These indexing methods use coarsely binned indexes to answer queries approximately, and then use finely binned indexes to refine the answers. Our new methods read significantly lower volumes of data at the expense of an increased disk access count, thus taking full advantage of the improved read speed and low access latency of flash devices. To demonstrate the advantage of these new indexes, we measure their performance on a number of storage systems using a standard data warehousing benchmark called the Set Query Benchmark. We observe that multi-level strategies on flash drives are up to 3 times faster than traditional indexing strategies on magnetic disk drives.

  8. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  9. EIA Energy Efficiency-Table 4f. Industrial Production Indexes...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    f Page Last Modified: May 2010 Table 4f. Industrial Production Indexes by Selected Industries, 1998, 2002, and 2006 (2000 100) MECS Survey Years NAICS Subsector and Industry 1998...

  10. Title 40 CFR 1508: Terminology and Index | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    1508: Terminology and IndexLegal Published NA Year Signed or Took Effect 2014 Legal Citation Not provided DOI Not Provided Check for DOI availability: http:crossref.org Online...

  11. Sub-picosecond optical switching with a negative index metamaterial...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Here we report 600 femtosecond (fs) all-optical modulation using a fIShnet (2D-perforated metallamorphous-Si (a-Si)metal film stack) negative-index meta material with a ...

  12. Using the NEPA Requirements and Guidance - Search Index

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    the NEPA Requirements and Guidance - Search Index Step 2: Entering a Search Term or Phrase 1. Locate the downloaded file, right click on it, select "Extract all", extract it to any ...

  13. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  14. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  15. Parallel In Situ Indexing for Data-intensive Computing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Jinoh; Abbasi, Hasan; Chacon, Luis; Docan, Ciprian; Klasky, Scott; Liu, Qing; Podhorszki, Norbert; Shoshani, Arie; Wu, Kesheng

    2011-09-09

    As computing power increases exponentially, vast amount of data is created by many scientific re- search activities. However, the bandwidth for storing the data to disks and reading the data from disks has been improving at a much slower pace. These two trends produce an ever-widening data access gap. Our work brings together two distinct technologies to address this data access issue: indexing and in situ processing. From decades of database research literature, we know that indexing is an effective way to address the data access issue, particularly for accessing relatively small fraction of data records. As data sets increase in sizes, more and more analysts need to use selective data access, which makes indexing an even more important for improving data access. The challenge is that most implementations of in- dexing technology are embedded in large database management systems (DBMS), but most scientific datasets are not managed by any DBMS. In this work, we choose to include indexes with the scientific data instead of requiring the data to be loaded into a DBMS. We use compressed bitmap indexes from the FastBit software which are known to be highly effective for query-intensive workloads common to scientific data analysis. To use the indexes, we need to build them first. The index building procedure needs to access the whole data set and may also require a significant amount of compute time. In this work, we adapt the in situ processing technology to generate the indexes, thus removing the need of read- ing data from disks and to build indexes in parallel. The in situ data processing system used is ADIOS, a middleware for high-performance I/O. Our experimental results show that the indexes can improve the data access time up to 200 times depending on the fraction of data selected, and using in situ data processing system can effectively reduce the time needed to create the indexes, up to 10 times with our in situ technique when using identical parallel settings.

  16. Structures with Negative Refractive Index for Applications in Optics and

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Nanophotonics - Energy Innovation Portal Industrial Technologies Industrial Technologies Advanced Materials Advanced Materials Find More Like This Return to Search Structures with Negative Refractive Index for Applications in Optics and Nanophotonics Ames Laboratory Contact AMES About This Technology Technology Marketing Summary Iowa State University and Ames Laboratory researchers have developed materials and structures with a negative refractive index that potentially open new frontiers in

  17. Graded-Refractive-Index Glass-based Antireflective Coatings:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Broadband/Omnidirectional Light Harvesting and Self-Cleaning Characteristics (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Graded-Refractive-Index Glass-based Antireflective Coatings: Broadband/Omnidirectional Light Harvesting and Self-Cleaning Characteristics Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Graded-Refractive-Index Glass-based Antireflective Coatings: Broadband/Omnidirectional Light Harvesting and Self-Cleaning Characteristics Authors: Aytug, Tolga [1] ; Lupini, Andrew R [1] ; Jellison Jr,

  18. Method to create gradient index in a polymer

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dirk, Shawn M; Johnson, Ross Stefan; Boye, Robert; Descour, Michael R; Sweatt, William C; Wheeler, David R; Kaehr, Bryan James

    2014-10-14

    Novel photo-writable and thermally switchable polymeric materials exhibit a refractive index change of .DELTA.n.gtoreq.1.0 when exposed to UV light or heat. For example, lithography can be used to convert a non-conjugated precursor polymer to a conjugated polymer having a higher index-of-refraction. Further, two-photon lithography can be used to pattern high-spatial frequency structures.

  19. Sub-picosecond optical switching with a negative index metamaterial

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Sub-picosecond optical switching with a negative index metamaterial Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Sub-picosecond optical switching with a negative index metamaterial Development of all-optical signal processing, eliminating the performance and cost penalties of optical-electrical-optical conversion, is important for continu,ing advances in Terabits/sec (Tb/s) communications.' Optical

  20. DOE NEPA Guidance and Requirements - Search Index - List of Contents |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy List of Contents DOE NEPA Guidance and Requirements - Search Index - List of Contents Return to Download Page The NEPA Guidance and Requirements - Search Index includes: A Brief Guide - DOE-wide Contracts For NEPA Documentation [DOE][2003] A Citizen's Guide to the NEPA - Having Your Voice Heard [CEQ][2007] A Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment [DOE][2002] Actions During the NEPA Process - Interim Actions [DOE][2003] Administrative Record Guidance

  1. DOE NEPA Guidance and Requirements - Search Index - Table of Contents |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy Table of Contents DOE NEPA Guidance and Requirements - Search Index - Table of Contents Return to Download Page The DOE NEPA Guidance and Requirements - Search Index includes: NEPA Guidance and Requirements Documents Issued by Published A Brief Guide - DOE-wide Contracts For NEPA Documentation DOE 2003 A Citizen's Guide to the NEPA - Having Your Voice Heard CEQ 2007 A Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment DOE 2002 Actions During the NEPA Process -

  2. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  3. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  4. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in 2016. U.S. crude oil production is still expected to average 9.2 million barrels per day this year. That's up half a million barrels per day from last year and the highest output level in more than four decades. A substantial part of the year-over-year increase reflects rapid production growth throughout 2014.

  5. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ? We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ? The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ? At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ? At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ? At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  6. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  7. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  8. Massive-scale RDF Processing Using Compressed Bitmap Indexes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Madduri, Kamesh; Wu, Kesheng

    2011-05-26

    The Resource Description Framework (RDF) is a popular data model for representing linked data sets arising from the web, as well as large scienti#12;c data repositories such as UniProt. RDF data intrinsically represents a labeled and directed multi-graph. SPARQL is a query language for RDF that expresses subgraph pattern-#12;nding queries on this implicit multigraph in a SQL- like syntax. SPARQL queries generate complex intermediate join queries; to compute these joins e#14;ciently, we propose a new strategy based on bitmap indexes. We store the RDF data in column-oriented structures as compressed bitmaps along with two dictionaries. This paper makes three new contributions. (i) We present an e#14;cient parallel strategy for parsing the raw RDF data, building dictionaries of unique entities, and creating compressed bitmap indexes of the data. (ii) We utilize the constructed bitmap indexes to e#14;ciently answer SPARQL queries, simplifying the join evaluations. (iii) To quantify the performance impact of using bitmap indexes, we compare our approach to the state-of-the-art triple-store RDF-3X. We #12;nd that our bitmap index-based approach to answering queries is up to an order of magnitude faster for a variety of SPARQL queries, on gigascale RDF data sets.

  9. A compute-Efficient Bitmap Compression Index for Database Applications

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-01-01

    FastBit: A Compute-Efficient Bitmap Compression Index for Database Applications The Word-Aligned Hybrid (WAH) bitmap compression method and data structure is highly efficient for performing search and retrieval operations on large datasets. The WAH technique is optimized for computational efficiency. The WAH-based bitmap indexing software, called FastBit, is particularly appropriate to infrequently varying databases, including those found in the on-line analytical processing (OLAP) industry. Some commercial database products already include some Version of a bitmap index,more »which could possibly be replaced by the WAR bitmap compression techniques for potentially large operational speedup. Experimental results show performance improvements by an average factor of 10 over bitmap technology used by industry, as well as increased efficiencies in constructing compressed bitmaps. FastBit can be use as a stand-alone index, or integrated into a database system. ien integrated into a database system, this technique may be particularly useful for real-time business analysis applications. Additional FastRit applications may include efficient real-time exploration of scientific models, such as climate and combustion simulations, to minimize search time for analysis and subsequent data visualization. FastBit was proven theoretically to be time-optimal because it provides a search time proportional to the number of elements selected by the index.« less

  10. New methods for indexing multi-lattice diffraction data

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Gildea, Richard J.; Waterman, David G.; Parkhurst, James M.; Axford, Danny; Sutton, Geoff; Stuart, David I.; Sauter, Nicholas K.; Evans, Gwyndaf; Winter, Graeme

    2014-09-27

    A new indexing method is presented which is capable of indexing multiple crystal lattices from narrow wedges of diffraction data. The method takes advantage of a simplification of Fourier transform-based methods that is applicable when the unit-cell dimensions are known a priori. The efficacy of this method is demonstrated with both semi-synthetic multi-lattice data and real multi-lattice data recorded from crystals of ~1 µm in size, where it is shown that up to six lattices can be successfully indexed and subsequently integrated from a 1° wedge of data. Analysis is presented which shows that improvements in data-quality indicators can bemore » obtained through accurate identification and rejection of overlapping reflections prior to scaling.« less

  11. Identification of features in indexed data and equipment therefore

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Jarman, Kristin H [Richland, WA; Daly, Don Simone [Richland, WA; Anderson, Kevin K [Richland, WA; Wahl, Karen L [Richland, WA

    2002-04-02

    Embodiments of the present invention provide methods of identifying a feature in an indexed dataset. Such embodiments encompass selecting an initial subset of indices, the initial subset of indices being encompassed by an initial window-of-interest and comprising at least one beginning index and at least one ending index; computing an intensity weighted measure of dispersion for the subset of indices using a subset of responses corresponding to the subset of indices; and comparing the intensity weighted measure of dispersion to a dispersion critical value determined from an expected value of the intensity weighted measure of dispersion under a null hypothesis of no transient feature present. Embodiments of the present invention also encompass equipment configured to perform the methods of the present invention.

  12. New methods for indexing multi-lattice diffraction data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gildea, Richard J.; Waterman, David G.; Parkhurst, James M.; Axford, Danny; Sutton, Geoff; Stuart, David I.; Sauter, Nicholas K.; Evans, Gwyndaf; Winter, Graeme

    2014-09-27

    A new indexing method is presented which is capable of indexing multiple crystal lattices from narrow wedges of diffraction data. The method takes advantage of a simplification of Fourier transform-based methods that is applicable when the unit-cell dimensions are known a priori. The efficacy of this method is demonstrated with both semi-synthetic multi-lattice data and real multi-lattice data recorded from crystals of ~1 m in size, where it is shown that up to six lattices can be successfully indexed and subsequently integrated from a 1 wedge of data. Analysis is presented which shows that improvements in data-quality indicators can be obtained through accurate identification and rejection of overlapping reflections prior to scaling.

  13. Using the NEPA Requirements and Guidance - Search Index

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    the NEPA Requirements and Guidance - Search Index Step 2: Entering a Search Term or Phrase 1. Locate the downloaded file, right click on it, select "Extract all", extract it to any location on your computer or USB drive. 2. Locate and Open the extracted folder "NEPA Requirements and Guidance - Search Index". 3. Locate and Open the .PDX file titled "Search - NEPA Requirements and Guidance" to open search form. Step 1: Download and Set Up Please Note: the search form

  14. Method and system for efficiently searching an encoded vector index

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bui, Thuan Quang; Egan, Randy Lynn; Kathmann, Kevin James

    2001-09-04

    Method and system aspects for efficiently searching an encoded vector index are provided. The aspects include the translation of a search query into a candidate bitmap, and the mapping of data from the candidate bitmap into a search result bitmap according to entry values in the encoded vector index. Further, the translation includes the setting of a bit in the candidate bitmap for each entry in a symbol table that corresponds to candidate of the search query. Also included in the mapping is the identification of a bit value in the candidate bitmap pointed to by an entry in an encoded vector.

  15. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  16. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  17. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB Veteran-Owned SB Service Disabled Vet. SB FY 2009 Dollars Goal (projected) $183,949,920 $82,690,000 $4,550,000 $8,829,596 $3,370,000 $5,025,000 $460,000 FY 2009 Dollars Accomplished $143,846,731 $68,174,398 $9,247,214 $11,333,905 $4,979,858 $6,713,791 $1,612,136 FY 2009 % Goal 45.0% 2.5% 4.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.25% FY

  18. Unidirectional transmission using array of zero-refractive-index metamaterials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fu, Yangyang; Xu, Lin; Hong Hang, Zhi; Chen, Huanyang

    2014-05-12

    In this Letter, we find that high efficient unidirectional transmission occurs for an array of prisms made of zero-refractive-index metamaterials. As a specific demonstration, we further design the device using Dirac-cone-like photonic crystals. The device can function for a broadband of spectrum. Numerical simulations are performed to verify the one-way wave functionality.

  19. GRADIENT INDEX SPHERES BY THE SEQUENTIAL ACCRETION OF GLASS POWDERS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MARIANO VELEZ

    2008-06-15

    The Department of Energy is seeking a method for fabricating mm-scale spheres having a refractive index that varies smoothly and continuously from the center to its surface [1]. The fabrication procedure must allow the creation of a range of index profiles. The spheres are to be optically transparent and have a refractive index differential greater than 0.2. The sphere materials can be either organic or inorganic and the fabrication technique must be capable of scaling to low cost production. Mo-Sci Corporation proposed to develop optical quality gradient refractive index (GRIN) glass spheres of millimeter scale (1 to 2 mm diameter) by the sequential accretion and consolidation of glass powders. Other techniques were also tested to make GRIN spheres as the powder-accretion method produced non-concentric layers and poor optical quality glass spheres. Potential ways to make the GRIN spheres were (1) by "coating" glass spheres (1 to 2 mm diameter) with molten glass in a two step process; and (2) by coating glass spheres with polymer layers.

  20. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  1. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  2. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the flying brick technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  3. The whistler mode refractive index as a function of gyrofrequency

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Albert, J. M.

    2011-08-15

    The refractive index for a constant-frequency whistler mode wave in an electron-proton plasma is considered as a function of position, through the local gyrofrequencies {Omega}{sub e,i}. The full cold plasma dispersion relation is used. The wave frequency can take any value up to the smaller of {Omega}{sub e} and the plasma frequency {omega}{sub pe}, but {omega}{sub pe} is allowed to take any fixed value, as is the wavenormal angle. It is rigorously established that the refractive index is a decreasing function of {Omega}{sub e}. One application of this is to finding locations of Landau and cyclotron resonances, to evaluate the effects of whistler mode waves on radiation belt electrons.

  4. RESIDUA UPGRADING EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT MODELS: WRI COKING INDEXES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John F. Schabron; Joseph F. Rovani, Jr.; Francis P. Miknis; Thomas F. Turner

    2003-06-01

    Pyrolysis experiments were conducted with three residua at 400 C (752 F) at various residence times. The wt % coke and gaseous products were measured for the product oils. The Western Research Institute (WRI) Coking Indexes were determined for the product oils. Measurements were made using techniques that might correlate with the Coking Indexes. These included spin-echo proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, heat capacity measurements at 280 C (536 F), and ultrasonic attenuation. The two immiscible liquid phases that form once coke formation begins were isolated and characterized for a Boscan residuum pyrolyzed at 400 C (752 F) for 55 minutes. These materials were analyzed for elemental composition (CHNS), porphyrins, and metals (Ni,V) content.

  5. Fabrication process for a gradient index x-ray lens

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bionta, R.M.; Makowiecki, D.M.; Skulina, K.M.

    1995-01-17

    A process is disclosed for fabricating high efficiency x-ray lenses that operate in the 0.5-4.0 keV region suitable for use in biological imaging, surface science, and x-ray lithography of integrated circuits. The gradient index x-ray optics fabrication process broadly involves co-sputtering multi-layers of film on a wire, followed by slicing and mounting on block, and then ion beam thinning to a thickness determined by periodic testing for efficiency. The process enables the fabrication of transmissive gradient index x-ray optics for the 0.5-4.0 keV energy range. This process allows the fabrication of optical elements for the next generation of imaging and x-ray lithography instruments in the soft x-ray region. 13 figures.

  6. Fabrication process for a gradient index x-ray lens

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bionta, Richard M. (Livermore, CA); Makowiecki, Daniel M. (Livermore, CA); Skulina, Kenneth M. (Livermore, CA)

    1995-01-01

    A process for fabricating high efficiency x-ray lenses that operate in the 0.5-4.0 keV region suitable for use in biological imaging, surface science, and x-ray lithography of integrated circuits. The gradient index x-ray optics fabrication process broadly involves co-sputtering multi-layers of film on a wire, followed by slicing and mounting on block, and then ion beam thinning to a thickness determined by periodic testing for efficiency. The process enables the fabrication of transmissive gradient index x-ray optics for the 0.5-4.0 keV energy range. This process allows the fabrication of optical elements for the next generation of imaging and x-ray lithography instruments m the soft x-ray region.

  7. Various forms of indexing HDMR for modelling multivariate classification problems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aksu, a?r?; Tunga, M. Alper

    2014-12-10

    The Indexing HDMR method was recently developed for modelling multivariate interpolation problems. The method uses the Plain HDMR philosophy in partitioning the given multivariate data set into less variate data sets and then constructing an analytical structure through these partitioned data sets to represent the given multidimensional problem. Indexing HDMR makes HDMR be applicable to classification problems having real world data. Mostly, we do not know all possible class values in the domain of the given problem, that is, we have a non-orthogonal data structure. However, Plain HDMR needs an orthogonal data structure in the given problem to be modelled. In this sense, the main idea of this work is to offer various forms of Indexing HDMR to successfully model these real life classification problems. To test these different forms, several well-known multivariate classification problems given in UCI Machine Learning Repository were used and it was observed that the accuracy results lie between 80% and 95% which are very satisfactory.

  8. Transient productivity index for numerical well test simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blanc, G.; Ding, D.Y.; Ene, A.

    1997-08-01

    The most difficult aspect of numerical simulation of well tests is the treatment of the Bottom Hole Flowing (BHF) Pressure. In full field simulations, this pressure is derived from the Well-block Pressure (WBP) using a numerical productivity index which accounts for the grid size and permeability, and for the well completion. This productivity index is calculated assuming a pseudo-steady state flow regime in the vicinity of the well and is therefore constant during the well production period. Such a pseudo-steady state assumption is no longer valid for the early time of a well test simulation as long as the pressure perturbation has not reached several grid-blocks around the well. This paper offers two different solutions to this problem: (1) The first one is based on the derivation of a Numerical Transient Productivity Index (NTPI) to be applied to Cartesian grids; (2) The second one is based on the use of a Corrected Transmissibility and Accumulation Term (CTAT) in the flow equation. The representation of the pressure behavior given by both solutions is far more accurate than the conventional one as shown by several validation examples which are presented in the following pages.

  9. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed wind speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (? ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35 and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF models MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a ? gradient method whether using observed or modelled ? profiles.

  10. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed windmore » speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.« less

  11. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  12. Demand forecasting and revenue requirements, with implications for consideration in British Columbia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acton, J.P.

    1983-05-01

    This paper was filed as an exhibit on behalf of The Consumers' Association of Canada (B.C. Branch), The Federated Anti-Poverty Groups of B.C., The Sierra Club of Western Canada, and the B.C. Old Age Pensioners' Organization. It was subjected to cross-examination on October 29, 1982, during Phase I of the hearings. The Utilities Commission had designated Phase I for consideration of (1) demand, (2) assets in service, (3) revenue requirements excluding return, and (4) financing and capital requirements. This paper presents a general discussion of the elements of a rate structure and their relationship to the demand for electricity, a systematic review of some 50 empirical studies of the demand for electricity as a function of price and other factors by the three principal classes of customers, and a discussion of the notion of revenue requirements. The paper should be of interest to utility regulators, rate specialists, and forecasters for its review of demand models and to academics concerned with the study of energy demand.

  13. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  14. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  15. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  16. Long History of IAM Comparisons

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Steven J.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Kejun, Jiang; Kriegler, Elmar; Masui, Toshihiko; Riahi, Keywan; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Tavoni, Massimo; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Weyant, John

    2015-04-23

    Correspondence to editor: We agree with the editors that the assumptions behind models of all types, including integrated assessment models (IAMs), should be as transparent as possible. The editors were in error, however, when they implied that the IAM community is just now emulating the efforts of climate researchers by instigating their own model inter-comparison projects (MIPs). In fact, model comparisons for integrated assessment and climate models followed a remarkably similar trajectory. Early General Circulation Model (GCM) comparison efforts, evolved to the first Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP), which was initiated in the early 1990s. Atmospheric models evolved to coupled atmosphere-ocean models (AOGCMs) and results from the first Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP1) become available about a decade later. Results of first energy model comparison exercise, conducted under the auspices of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum, were published in 1977. A summary of the first comparison focused on climate change was published in 1993. As energy models were coupled to simple economic and climate models to form IAMs, the first comparison exercise for IAMs (EMF-14) was initiated in 1994, and IAM comparison exercises have been on-going since this time.

  17. Glovebox decontamination technology comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Quintana, D.M.; Rodriguez, J.B.; Cournoyer, M.E.

    1999-09-26

    Reconfiguration of the CMR Building and TA-55 Plutonium Facility for mission requirements will require the disposal or recycle of 200--300 gloveboxes or open front hoods. These gloveboxes and open front hoods must be decontaminated to meet discharge limits for Low Level Waste. Gloveboxes and open front hoods at CMR have been painted. One of the deliverables on this project is to identify the best method for stripping the paint from large numbers of gloveboxes. Four methods being considered are the following: conventional paint stripping, dry ice pellets, strippable coatings, and high pressure water technology. The advantages of each technology will be discussed. Last, cost comparisons between the technologies will be presented.

  18. Comparison with Carrier Multiplication

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Complete Theory of Down-Conversion, and a Comparison with Carrier Multiplication 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 Measured Quantum Efficiency (QE) Efficiency [%] with Down-Conversion Single- Junction Threshold Solar Cell 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Peak Efficiency [%] Splitting Multiplicity (M) C=max C=1000 C=100 C=1 C=10 Down Conversion Carrier Multiplication Ze'ev R. Abrams, Avi Niv, Majid Gharghi, Chris Gladden & Xiang Zhang Materials Science

  19. Topic Index to the DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    /21/07 TOPICINDEXTODOEADMINSCHEDULES Topic Index to the DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules (excluding the GRS Schedules) Topic Schedule Item [A] [B] [C] [D] [E] [F] [G] [H] [I] [J] [K] [L] [M] [N] [O] [P] [Q] [R] [S] [T] [U] [V] [W] [X] [Y] [Z] A Academic/Outreach Program 1 44 Access Request Files 18 6 Accountable Officers' Files 6 1 Accounting Administrative Files 6 5 Administrative Claims Files 6 10 Administrative Training Records 1 29.2 Administrative Issuances 16 1

  20. Gradient index liquid crystal devices and method of fabrication thereof

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lee, Jae-Cheul (Rochester, NY); Jacobs, Stephen (Pittsford, NY)

    1991-01-01

    Laser beam apodizers using cholesteric liquid crystals provides soft edge profile by use of two separate cholesteric liquid crystal mixtures with different selective reflection bands which in an overlap region have a gradient index where reflectivity changes as a function of position. The apodizers can be configured as a one-dimensional beam apod INTRODUCTION The U.S. government has rights in the invention under Contract No. DE-FC03-85DP40200 between the University of Rochester and the Department of Energy.

  1. Gradient index liquid crystal devices and method of fabrication thereof

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lee, J.C.; Jacobs, S.

    1991-10-29

    Laser beam apodizers using cholesteric liquid crystals provides soft edge profile by use of two separate cholesteric liquid crystal mixtures with different selective reflection bands which in an overlap region have a gradient index where reflectivity changes as a function of position. The apodizers can be configured as a one-dimensional beam apod INTRODUCTION The U.S. government has rights in the invention under Contract No. DE-FC03-85DP40200 between the University of Rochester and the Department of Energy.

  2. Tri-Cities Index of Innovation and Technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fowler, Richard A.; Scott, Michael J.; Butner, Ryan S.

    2011-01-17

    In 2001 and 2004, the Economic Development Office of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory published companion reports to the Washington Technology Center Index studies that provided additional information on the Tri-Cities (Kennewick-Richland-Pasco) area of the state, its technology businesses, and important advantages that the Tri-Cities have as places to live and do business. These reports also compared the Tri-Cities area to other technology-based metropolitan areas in the Pacific Northwest and nation along critical dimensions known to be important to technology firms. This report updates the material in these earlier reports, and highlights a growing Tri-Cities metropolitan area.

  3. DOE technical standards list: Department of Energy standards index

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-06-01

    This technical standards list (TSL) was prepared for use by personnel involved in the selection and use of US DOE technical standards and other government and non-government standards. This TSL provides listings of current DOE technical standards, non-government standards that have been adopted by DOE, other government documents in which DOE has a recorded interest, and cancelled DOE technical standards. Standards are indexed by type in the appendices to this document. Definitions of and general guidance for the use of standards are also provided.

  4. Risk-Based Comparison of Carbon Capture Technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward

    2013-05-01

    In this paper, we describe an integrated probabilistic risk assessment methodological framework and a decision-support tool suite for implementing systematic comparisons of competing carbon capture technologies. Culminating from a collaborative effort among national laboratories under the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), the risk assessment framework and the decision-support tool suite encapsulate three interconnected probabilistic modeling and simulation components. The technology readiness level (TRL) assessment component identifies specific scientific and engineering targets required by each readiness level and applies probabilistic estimation techniques to calculate the likelihood of graded as well as nonlinear advancement in technology maturity. The technical risk assessment component focuses on identifying and quantifying risk contributors, especially stochastic distributions for significant risk contributors, performing scenario-based risk analysis, and integrating with carbon capture process model simulations and optimization. The financial risk component estimates the long-term return on investment based on energy retail pricing, production cost, operating and power replacement cost, plan construction and retrofit expenses, and potential tax relief, expressed probabilistically as the net present value distributions over various forecast horizons.

  5. Realization of an all-dielectric zero-index optical metamaterial...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Realization of an all-dielectric zero-index optical metamaterial Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Realization of an all-dielectric zero-index optical metamaterial...

  6. Dark Matter Constraints from a Cosmic Index of Refraction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gardner, Susan; Latimer, David C.

    2009-04-01

    The dark-matter candidates of particle physics invariably possess electromagnetic interactions, if only via quantum fluctuations. Taken en masse, dark matter can thus engender an index of refraction which deviates from its vacuum value. Its presence is signaled through frequency-dependent effects: the real part yields dispersive effects in propagation, and the imaginary part yields such in attenuation. We discuss theoretical constraints on the expansion of the index of refraction with frequency, the physical interpretation of the terms, and the particular observations needed to isolate its coefficients. This, with the advent of new opportunities to view gamma-ray bursts at cosmological distance scales, gives us a new probe of dark matter. As a first application we use the time delay determined from radio afterglow observations of gamma-ray bursts to limit the charge-to-mass ratio of dark matter to |{var_epsilon}|/M < 1.8 x 10{sup -5} eV{sup -1} at 95% CL.

  7. Microsoft Word - Chapter 13 Index 07-05-11.doc

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    3 INDEX 13-1 13.0 INDEX A accidents, 1-5, 1-11, 3-4, 3-15, 3-34, 3-36, 3-51, 3-62- 3-63, 3-66, 3-70-3-71, 3-75, 4-160, 4-163-4-164, 4-209, 4-217, 4-240-4-241, 5-39-3-41, 5-43, 5-49, 5-51-5-60, 5-62, 5-80, 5-84, 5-195-5-197, 5-206- 5-214, 5-216, 5-218, 5-229, 5-232, 5-248-5-249, 5-252, 5-276-5-278, 6-33, 6-53, 6-57, 6-69, 7-3, 9-4, 9-7, 9-22, 9-25 affected environment, 1-28, 2-14, 4-1, 4-45, 4-126, 4-183, 4-203, 4-231, 4-242, 9-11, 9-18, 10-2-10-3 air emissions, 3-73, 4-117-4-118, 4-161, 4-181,

  8. Viscosity index calculated by program in GW-basic for personal computers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anaya, C.; Bermudez, O. )

    1988-12-26

    A computer program has been developed to calculate the viscosity index of oils when viscosities at two temperatures are known.

  9. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  10. Modelling vegetation dynamics at global scale due to climate changes: Comparison of two approaches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Belotelov, N.V.; Bogatyrev, B.G.; Lobanov, A.I.

    1996-12-31

    Climate changes will influence vegetation dynamics. One of the ways of forecasting these changes is the creation of mathematical models describing vegetation dynamics. Computer experiments can then be conducted under climate change scenarios. Two main approaches are used to create such models. The first approach is based on a bioclimatic dynamic approach. The second approach is based on modelling the main eco-physiological processes. The bioclimatic dynamic approach consists of hypotheses about vegetation types or biomes, and their interrelationships with climate. In the eco-physiological approach, a detailed description of the processes, such as production, mortality, plants migration and their competition is presented. A number of computer experiments has been conducted for several climatic scenario for Russia and the whole world. A qualitative comparison of the results with the results of an earlier bioclimatic model has been done.

  11. An Index-Based Approach to Assessing Recalcitrance and Soil Carbon Sequestration Potential of Engineered Black Carbons (Biochars)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harvey, Omar R.; Kuo, Li-Jung; Zimmerman, Andrew R.; Louchouarn, Patrick; Amonette, James E.; Herbert, Bruce

    2012-01-10

    The ability of engineered black carbons (or biochars) to resist abiotic and, or biotic degradation (herein referred to as recalcitrance) is crucial to their successful deployment as a soil carbon sequestration strategy. A new recalcitrance index, the R{sub 50}, for assessing biochar quality for carbon sequestration is proposed. The R{sub 50} is based on the relative thermal stability of a given biochar to that of graphite and was developed and evaluated with a variety of biochars (n = 59), and soot-like black carbons. Comparison of R{sub 50}, with biochar physicochemical properties and biochar-C mineralization revealed the existence of a quantifiable relationship between R{sub 50} and biochar recalcitrance. As presented here, the R{sub 50} is immediately applicable to pre-land application screening of biochars into Class A (R{sub 50} {>=} 0.70), Class B (0.50 {<=} R{sub 50} < 0.70) or Class C (R{sub 50} < 0.50) recalcitrance/carbon sequestration classes. Class A and Class C biochars would have carbon sequestration potential comparable to soot/graphite and uncharred plant biomass, respectively, while Class B biochars would have intermediate carbon sequestration potential. We believe that the coupling of the R{sub 50}, to an index-based degradation, and an economic model could provide a suitable framework in which to comprehensively assess soil carbon sequestration in biochars.

  12. Imaging based refractometer for hyperspectral refractive index detection

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Baba, Justin S.; Boudreaux, Philip R.

    2015-11-24

    Refractometers for simultaneously measuring refractive index of a sample over a range of wavelengths of light include dispersive and focusing optical systems. An optical beam including the range of wavelengths is spectrally spread along a first axis and focused along a second axis so as to be incident to an interface between the sample and a prism at a range of angles of incidence including a critical angle for at least one wavelength. An imaging detector is situated to receive the spectrally spread and focused light from the interface and form an image corresponding to angle of incidence as a function of wavelength. One or more critical angles are identified and corresponding refractive indices are determined.

  13. Developing an operational capabilities index of the emergency services sector.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Collins, M.J.; Eaton, L.K.; Shoemaker, Z.M.; Fisher, R.E.; Veselka, S.N.; Wallace, K.E.; Petit, F.D.

    2012-02-20

    In order to enhance the resilience of the Nation and its ability to protect itself in the face of natural and human-caused hazards, the ability of the critical infrastructure (CI) system to withstand specific threats and return to normal operations after degradation must be determined. To fully analyze the resilience of a region and the CI that resides within it, both the actual resilience of the individual CI and the capability of the Emergency Services Sector (ESS) to protect against and respond to potential hazards need to be considered. Thus, a regional resilience approach requires the comprehensive consideration of all parts of the CI system as well as the characterization of emergency services. This characterization must generate reproducible results that can support decision making with regard to risk management, disaster response, business continuity, and community planning and management. To address these issues, Argonne National Laboratory, in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Sector Specific Agency - Executive Management Office, developed a comprehensive methodology to create an Emergency Services Sector Capabilities Index (ESSCI). The ESSCI is a performance metric that ranges from 0 (low level of capabilities) to 100 (high). Because an emergency services program has a high ESSCI, however, does not mean that a specific event would not be able to affect a region or cause severe consequences. And because a program has a low ESSCI does not mean that a disruptive event would automatically lead to serious consequences in a region. Moreover, a score of 100 on the ESSCI is not the level of capability expected of emergency services programs; rather, it represents an optimal program that would rarely be observed. The ESSCI characterizes the state of preparedness of a jurisdiction in terms of emergency and risk management. Perhaps the index's primary benefit is that it can systematically capture, at a given point in time, the capabilities of a jurisdiction to protect itself from, mitigate, respond to, and recover from a potential incident. On the basis of this metric, an interactive tool - the ESSCI Dashboard - can identify scenarios for enhancement that can be implemented, and it can identify the repercussions of these scenarios on the jurisdiction. It can assess the capabilities of law enforcement, fire fighting, search and rescue, emergency medical services, hazardous materials response, dispatch/911, and emergency management services in a given jurisdiction and it can help guide those who need to prioritize what limited resources should be used to improve these capabilities. Furthermore, this tool can be used to compare the level of capabilities of various jurisdictions that have similar socioeconomic characteristics. It can thus help DHS define how it can support risk reduction and community preparedness at a national level. This tool aligns directly with Presidential Policy Directive 8 by giving a jurisdiction a metric of its ESS's capabilities and by promoting an interactive approach for defining options to improve preparedness and to effectively respond to a disruptive event. It can be used in combination with other CI performance metrics developed at Argonne National Laboratory, such as the vulnerability index and the resilience index for assessing regional resilience.

  14. Electrically tunable graded index planar lens based on graphene

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nasari, H. Abrishamian, M. S.

    2014-08-28

    The realization of electrically tunable beam focusing using a properly designed conductivity pattern along a strip on a background single graphene flake with operation in the terahertz regime is proposed and numerically investigated. The strip is illuminated with a guided surface plasmon polaritons (SPP) plane wave and the physical origin of the design procedure is evaluated from the phase of effective mode index of propagating SPP wave on graphene. Upon tuning a gate voltage between the graphene sheet and the substrate, the focus tuning is achieved. Finite- difference time-domain numerical technique is employed to explore the propagation characteristic of SPP wave and the performance parameters of the lens include the focal length, full-width half-maximum, and focusing efficiency. Such a one atom thick planar lens with the capability of electrical focus tuning besides the compatibility with current planar optoelectronic systems can find valuable potential applications in the field of transformational plasmon optics.

  15. Semiconductor laser devices having lateral refractive index tailoring

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ashby, Carol I. H. (Edgewood, NM); Hadley, G. Ronald (Alburquerque, NM); Hohimer, John P. (Albuquerque, NM); Owyoung, Adelbert (Albuquerque, NM)

    1990-01-01

    A broad-area semiconductor laser diode includes an active lasing region interposed between an upper and a lower cladding layer, the laser diode further comprising structure for controllably varying a lateral refractive index profile of the diode to substantially compensate for an effect of junction heating during operation. In embodiments disclosed the controlling structure comprises resistive heating strips or non-radiative linear junctions disposed parallel to the active region. Another embodiment discloses a multi-layered upper cladding region selectively disordered by implanted or diffused dopant impurities. Still another embodiment discloses an upper cladding layer of variable thickness that is convex in shape and symmetrically disposed about a central axis of the active region. The teaching of the invention is also shown to be applicable to arrays of semiconductor laser diodes.

  16. DESIGN OF WIRE-WRAPPED ROD BUNDLE MATCHED INDEX-OF-REFRACTION EXPERIMENTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hugh McIlroy; Hongbin Zhang; Kurt Hamman

    2008-05-01

    Experiments will be conducted in the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Matched Index-of-Refraction (MIR) Flow Facility [1] to characterize the three-dimensional velocity and turbulence fields in a wire-wrapped rod bundle typically employed in liquid-metal cooled fast reactors and to provide benchmark data for computer code validation. Sodium cooled fast reactors are under consideration for use in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) program. The experiment model will be constructed of quartz components and the working fluid will be mineral oil. Accurate temperature control (to within 0.05 oC) matches the index-of-refraction of mineral oil with that of quartz and renders the model transparent to the wavelength of laser light employed for optical measurements. The model will be a scaled 7-pin rod bundle enclosed in a hexagonal canister. Flow field measurements will be obtained with a LaVision 3-D particle image velocimeter (PIV) and complimented by near-wall velocity measurements obtained from a 2-D laser Doppler velocimeter (LDV). These measurements will be used as benchmark data for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) validation. The rod bundle model dimensions will be scaled up from the typical dimensions of a fast reactor fuel assembly to provide the maximum Reynolds number achievable in the MIR flow loop. A range of flows from laminar to fully-turbulent will be available with a maximum Reynolds number, based on bundle hydraulic diameter, of approximately 22,000. The fuel pins will be simulated by 85 mm diameter quartz tubes (closed on the inlet ends) and the wire-wrap will be simulated by 25 mm diameter quartz rods. The canister walls will be constructed from quartz plates. The model will be approximately 2.13 m in length. Bundle pressure losses will also be measured and the data recorded for code comparisons. The experiment design and preliminary CFD calculations, which will be used to provide qualitative hydrodynamic information, are presented in this paper.

  17. Development of an environmental relative moldiness index for US homes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vesper, Sephen J.; McKinstry, Craig A.; Haugland, Richard A.; Wymer, Larry; Bradham, Karen; Ashley, Peter; Cox, David J.; DeWalt, Gary; Friedman, Warren

    2007-08-01

    As part of the HUD American Healthy Survey, dust samples were collected by vacuuming 2 m2 in the bedroom plus 2 m2 in the living room of a nationally representative 1096 homes in the USA using the Mitest sampler. Five mg of sieved (300 pore, nylon mesh) dust was analyzed by mold specific quantitative PCR for the 36 EPA Mold Panel Species. On this basis, an environmental relative moldiness index (ERMI) was created with values ranging from about -10 to 20 (lowest to highest). In order to try to reduce the cost of this analysis, the number of test species was reduced by selecting only those species with a national average concentration of 30 cell equivalents (CE) per mg dust or greater. Only 19 of 36 species met this criterion. (In 40% of the homes, an additional 46 species were quantified from the same dust sample. All of these species had average concentrations less than 30 CE per mg dust.) These 19 species were then categorized into two groups based on their coefficient of variation (CV). If the CV was > 9, the mold was placed in Category 1 (10/19) and the other molds were placed in Category 2 (9/19). Using these Categories, the sum of the log-transformed concentrations of three Category 2 molds (C. herbarum, A. alternata and C. cladosporioides Type 1) was subtracted from the sum of the log-transformed concentrations of the ten Category 1 molds (Aspergillus niger, A. ochraceus, A. penicillioides, A. restrictus, A. sydowii, Chaetomium globosum, Eurotium amsteldoami, Paecilomyces variotii, Penicillium chrysogenum and Wallemia sebi). Assembling these values for the 1096 AHHS homes from lowest to highest produced the American relative moldiness index (ARMI). The correlation between the ERMI and ARMI values was 0.88. The ERMI or ARMI scales may be useful as a standard for mold exposure estimates in epidemiological studies.

  18. Erosion Resistance Index (ERI) to Assess Site Stability in Desert Environments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hamada, Yuki; Grippo, Mark A.

    2015-11-01

    A new spectral indexerosion resistance index (ERI)was developed to assess erosion risks in desert landscapes. The index was developed by applying trigonometry to the combination of the green/red band-ratio and the red/near infrared band-ratio from very high spatial resolution imagery. The resultant ERI maps showed spatially cohesive distributions of high and low index values across the study areas. High index values were observed over areas that were resistant to erosion (such as desert pavement and dense vegetation), while low index values overlapped with areas likely dominated by loose sandy soils, such as stream beds and access roads. Although further investigation is warranted, this new index, ERI, shows promise for the assessment of erosion risks in desert regions.

  19. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  20. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  1. Energy consumption and expenditure projections by population group on the basis of the annual energy outlook 1999 forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poyer, D.A.; Balsley, J.H.

    2000-01-07

    This report presents an analysis of the relative impact of the base-case scenario used in Annual Energy Outlook 1999 on different population groups. Projections of energy consumption and expenditures, as well as energy expenditure as a share of income, from 1996 to 2020 are given. The projected consumption of electricty, natural gas, distillate fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas during this period is also reported for each population group. In addition, this report compares the findings of the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 report with the 1998 report. Changes in certain indicators and information affect energy use forecasts, and these effects are analyzed and discussed.

  2. Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anggraeni, Novia Antika

    2015-04-24

    The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.

  3. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (stochastic) model with the weather forecast model (deterministic) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  4. Viscosity index improver-dispersant additive useful in oil compositions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gardiner, J.B.; Dick, M.N.

    1988-10-25

    A process comprising grafting in the substantial absence of solvent a hydrocarbon polymer of C/sub 2/ to C/sub 28/ olefin, the polymer having a number average molecular weight in the range of about 5,000 to 500,000 with an unsaturated material selected from the group consisting of: (A) ethylenically unsaturated C/sub 3/ to C/sub 10/ carboxylic acid having 1 to 2 carboxylic acid groups or an anhydride group, and (B) nitrogen-containing ethylenically unsaturated monomers containing 6 to 30 carbon atoms and 1 to 4 nitrogen atoms, in the presence of a free radical initiator and a chain stopping agent comprising at least one member selected from the group consisting of alphatic mercaptans having 4 to 24 carbon atoms, deithyl hydroxyl amine cumene and phenols, the grafting being conducted in a manner and under conditions sufficient to form a substantially oil soluble graft copolymer useful as a viscosity index improver-dispersant additive for lubricating oil compositions.

  5. Antireflective graded index silica coating, method for making

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Yoldas, Bulent E. (Churchill, PA); Partlow, Deborah P. (Wilkinsburg, PA)

    1985-01-01

    Antireflective silica coating for vitreous material is substantially non-reflecting over a wide band of radiations. This is achieved by providing the coating with a graded degree of porosity which grades the index of refraction between that of air and the vitreous material of the substrate. To prepare the coating, there is first prepared a silicon-alkoxide-based coating solution of particular polymer structure produced by a controlled proportion of water to alkoxide and a controlled concentration of alkoxide to solution, along with a small amount of catalyst. The primary solvent is alcohol and the solution is polymerized and hydrolized under controlled conditions prior to use. The prepared solution is applied as a film to the vitreous substrate and rapidly dried. It is thereafter heated under controlled conditions to volatilize the hydroxyl radicals and organics therefrom and then to produce a suitable pore morphology in the residual porous silica layer. The silica layer is then etched in order to enlarge the pores in a graded fashion, with the largest of the pores remaining being sufficiently small that radiations to be passed through the substrate are not significantly scattered. For use with quartz substrates, extremely durable coatings which display only 0.1% reflectivity have been prepared.

  6. U.S. Department of Energy Project Definition Rating Index Guide...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2, U.S. Department of Energy Project Definition Rating Index Guide by Ruben Sanchez Functional areas: Project Management This Guide assists individuals and teams involved in...

  7. Long period grating refractive-index sensor: optimal design for single wavelength interrogation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kapoor, Amita; Sharma, Enakshi K.

    2009-11-01

    We report the design criteria for the use of long period gratings (LPGs) as refractive-index sensors with output power at a single interrogating wavelength as the measurement parameter. The design gives maximum sensitivity in a given refractive-index range when the interrogating wavelength is fixed. Use of the design criteria is illustrated by the design of refractive-index sensors for specific application to refractive-index variation of a sugar solution with a concentration and detection of mole fraction of xylene in heptane (paraffin).

  8. Effects of the Financial Crisis on Photovoltaics: An Analysis of Changes in Market Forecasts from 2008 to 2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bartlett, J. E.; Margolis, R. M.; Jennings, C. E.

    2009-09-01

    To examine how the financial crisis has impacted expectations of photovoltaic production, demand and pricing over the next several years, we surveyed the market forecasts of industry analysts that had issued projections in 2008 and 2009. We find that the financial crisis has had a significant impact on the PV industry, primarily through increasing the cost and reducing the availability of investment into the sector. These effects have been more immediately experienced by PV installations than by production facilities, due to the different types and duration of investments, and thus PV demand has been reduced by a greater proportion than PV production. By reducing demand more than production, the financial crisis has accelerated previously expected PV overcapacity and resulting price declines.

  9. Enhancing Cloud Radiative Processes and Radiation Efficiency in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iacono, Michael J.

    2015-03-09

    The objective of this research has been to evaluate and implement enhancements to the computational performance of the RRTMG radiative transfer option in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Efficiency is as essential as accuracy for effective numerical weather prediction, and radiative transfer is a relatively time-consuming component of dynamical models, taking up to 30-50 percent of the total model simulation time. To address this concern, this research has implemented and tested a version of RRTMG that utilizes graphics processing unit (GPU) technology (hereinafter RRTMGPU) to greatly improve its computational performance; thereby permitting either more frequent simulation of radiative effects or other model enhancements. During the early stages of this project the development of RRTMGPU was completed at AER under separate NASA funding to accelerate the code for use in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Goddard Earth Observing System GEOS-5 global model. It should be noted that this final report describes results related to the funded portion of the originally proposed work concerning the acceleration of RRTMG with GPUs in WRF. As a k-distribution model, RRTMG is especially well suited to this modification due to its relatively large internal pseudo-spectral (g-point) dimension that, when combined with the horizontal grid vector in the dynamical model, can take great advantage of the GPU capability. Thorough testing under several model configurations has been performed to ensure that RRTMGPU improves WRF model run time while having no significant impact on calculated radiative fluxes and heating rates or on dynamical model fields relative to the RRTMG radiation. The RRTMGPU codes have been provided to NCAR for possible application to the next public release of the WRF forecast model.

  10. Apples with apples: accounting for fuel price risk in comparisons of gas-fired and renewable generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2003-12-18

    For better or worse, natural gas has become the fuel of choice for new power plants being built across the United States. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas combined-cycle and combustion turbine power plants accounted for 96% of the total generating capacity added in the US between 1999 and 2002--138 GW out of a total of 144 GW. Looking ahead, the EIA expects that gas-fired technology will account for 61% of the 355 GW new generating capacity projected to come on-line in the US up to 2025, increasing the nationwide market share of gas-fired generation from 18% in 2002 to 22% in 2025. While the data are specific to the US, natural gas-fired generation is making similar advances in other countries as well. Regardless of the explanation for (or interpretation of) the empirical findings, however, the basic implications remain the same: one should not blindly rely on gas price forecasts when comparing fixed-price renewable with variable-price gas-fired generation contracts. If there is a cost to hedging, gas price forecasts do not capture and account for it. Alternatively, if the forecasts are at risk of being biased or out of tune with the market, then one certainly would not want to use them as the basis for resource comparisons or investment decisions if a more certain source of data (forwards) existed. Accordingly, assuming that long-term price stability is valued, the most appropriate way to compare the levelized cost of these resources in both cases would be to use forward natural gas price data--i.e. prices that can be locked in to create price certainty--as opposed to uncertain natural gas price forecasts. This article suggests that had utilities and analysts in the US done so over the sample period from November 2000 to November 2003, they would have found gas-fired generation to be at least 0.3-0.6 cents/kWh more expensive (on a levelized cost basis) than otherwise thought. With some renewable resources, in particular wind power, now largely competitive with gas-fired generation in the US (including the impact of the federal production tax credit and current high gas prices), a margin of 0.3-0.6 cents/kWh may in some cases be enough to sway resource decisions in favor of renewables.

  11. 3-D photo-patterning of refractive index structures in photosensitive thin film materials

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Potter, Jr., Barrett George; Potter, Kelly Simmons

    2002-01-01

    A method of making a three-dimensional refractive index structure in a photosensitive material using photo-patterning. The wavelengths at which a photosensitive material exhibits a change in refractive index upon exposure to optical radiation is first determined and then a portion of the surface of the photosensitive material is optically irradiated at a wavelength at which the photosensitive material exhibits a change in refractive index using a designed illumination system to produce a three-dimensional refractive index structure. The illumination system can be a micro-lenslet array, a macroscopic refractive lens array, or a binary optic phase mask. The method is a single-step, direct-write procedure to produce a designed refractive index structure.

  12. Comparison between two Lysholm engines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frau, B.A.

    1983-01-01

    The University of California at Berkeley (UCB) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) both have been working on the Lysholm engine as an expander of two phase geothermal brine. The sizes of the machines, (The machine at UCB is rated at 25 kW, and the machine that JPL tested is rated at 1MW) as well as the approaches, are different. Here, some comparisons are made in order to clarify the direction in which future efforts should be conducted.

  13. Comparison

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    these response statistics for data collected from either physical experimentation or numerical modeling. Here, we consider the application of a series of such methods to...

  14. Comparison

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    chord although this will later be shown to be un- a Electronic mail: jcreardon@wisc.edu REVIEW OF SCIENTIFIC INSTRUMENTS VOLUME 74, NUMBER 3 MARCH 2003 1892 0034-6748...

  15. Nuclear facility decommissioning and site remedial actions: A selected bibliography, Volume 13: Part 2, Indexes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goins, L.F.; Webb, J.R.; Cravens, C.D.; Mallory, P.K.

    1992-09-01

    This is part 2 of a bibliography on nuclear facility decommissioning and site remedial action. This report contains indexes on the following: authors, corporate affiliation, title words, publication description, geographic location, subject category, and key word.

  16. Title 40 CFR 1508 Terminology and Index for the Council on Environment...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Terminology and Index for the Council on Environmental Quality Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal Document- RegulationRegulation: Title 40...

  17. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

  18. Refractive index of r-cut sapphire under shock pressure range 5 to 65?GPa

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cao, Xiuxia; Li, Jiabo; Li, Jun; Li, Xuhai; Xu, Liang; Wang, Yuan; Zhu, Wenjun; Meng, Chuanmin; Zhou, Xianming

    2014-09-07

    High-pressure refractive index of optical window materials not only can provide information on electronic polarizability and band-gap structure, but also is important for velocity correction in particle-velocity measurement with laser interferometers. In this work, the refractive index of r-cut sapphire window at 1550?nm wavelength was measured under shock pressures of 565?GPa. The refractive index (n) decreases linearly with increasing shock density (?) for shock stress above the Hugoniot elastic limit (HEL): n?=?2.0485 ( 0.0197)???0.0729 ( 0.0043)?, while n remains nearly a constant for elastic shocks. This behavior is attributed to the transition from elastic (below HEL) to heterogeneous plastic deformation (above HEL). Based on the obtained refractive index-density relationship, polarizability of the shocked sapphire was also obtained.

  19. Flux and Photon Spectral Index Distributions of Fermi-LAT Blazars...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    as a whole the intrinsic flux distribution can be represented by a broken power law of slopes -2.37 +- 0.13 and -1.70 +- 0.26, and the intrinsic photon index ...

  20. Spatially addressable design of gradient index structures through spatial light modulator based holographic lithography

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ohlinger, Kris; Lutkenhaus, Jeff [Department of Physics, University of North Texas, Denton, Texas 76203 (United States); Arigong, Bayaner; Zhang, Hualiang [Department of Electrical Engineering, University of North Texas, Denton, Texas 76203 (United States); Lin, Yuankun, E-mail: yuankun.lin@unt.edu [Department of Physics, University of North Texas, Denton, Texas 76203 (United States); Department of Electrical Engineering, University of North Texas, Denton, Texas 76203 (United States)

    2013-12-07

    In this paper, we present an achievable gradient refractive index in bi-continuous holographic structures that are formed through five-beam interference. We further present a theoretic approach for the realization of gradient index devices by engineering the phases of the interfering beams with a pixelated spatial light modulator. As an example, the design concept of a gradient index Luneburg lens is verified through full-wave electromagnetic simulations. These five beams with desired phases can be generated through programming gray level super-cells in a diffractive spatial light modulator. As a proof-of-concept, gradient index structures are demonstrated using synthesized and gradient phase patterns displayed in the spatial light modulator.

  1. Planar optical waveguides for optical panel having gradient refractive index core

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Veligdan, James T. (6 Stephanie La., Manorville, NY 11949)

    2001-01-01

    An optical panel is disclosed. A plurality of stacked planar optical waveguides are used to guide light from an inlet face to an outlet face of an optical panel. Each of the optical waveguides comprises a planar sheet of core material having a central plane. The core material has an index of refraction which decreases as the distance from the central plane increases. The decrease in the index of refraction occurs gradually and continuously.

  2. Planar optical waveguides for optical panel having gradient refractive index core

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Veligdan, James T.

    2004-08-24

    An optical panel is disclosed. A plurality of stacked planar optical waveguides are used to guide light from an inlet face to an outlet face of an optical panel. Each of the optical waveguides comprises a planar sheet of core material having a central plane. The core material has an index of refraction which decreases as the distance from the central plane increases. The decrease in the index of refraction occurs gradually and continuously.

  3. Refractive index and absorption detector for liquid chromatography based on Fabry-Perot interferometry

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Yeung, E.S.; Woodruff, S.D.

    1984-06-19

    A refractive index and absorption detector are disclosed for liquid chromatography. It is based in part on a Fabry-Perot interferometer and is used for the improved detection of refractive index and absorption. It includes a Fabry-Perot interferometer having a normally fixed first partially reflecting mirror and a movable second partially reflecting mirror. A chromatographic flow-cell is positioned between the mirrors along the optical axis of a monochromatic laser beam passing through the interferometer. A means for deriving information about the interference fringes coming out of the interferometer is used with a mini-computer to compute the refractive index of the specimen injected into the flow cell. The minicomputer continuously scans the interferometer for continuous refractive index readings and outputs the continuous results of the scans on a chart recorder. The absorption of the specimen can concurrently be scanned by including a second optical path for an excitation laser which will not interfere with the first laser, but will affect the specimen so that absorption properties can be detected. By first scanning for the refractive index of the specimen, and then immediately adding the excitation laser and subsequently scanning for the refractive index again, the absorption of the specimen can be computed and recorded. 10 figs.

  4. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 5: The DOETRAN user`s manual; The DOE-2/DBEDT DSM forecasting model interface

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then process the data into the forecasting model format. As DOETRAN processes the DOE-2 data, graphs of the total electric monthly impacts for each DSM measure appear, providing the user with a visual means of inspecting DOE-2 data, as well as following program execution. DOETRAN provides three tables for each building type for the forecasting model, one for electric measures, gas measures, and basecases. The optional fourth function provided by DOETRAN is to view graphs of total electric annual impacts by measure. This last option allows a comparative view of how one measure rates against another. A section in this manual is devoted to each of the four functions mentioned above, as well as computer requirements and exiting DOETRAN.

  5. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  6. Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1994--FY 2001. Environmental Restoration Program, September 1993 Revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    This Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project. FY 1994--FY 2001 is the third in a series of documents that report current estimates of the waste volumes expected to be generated as a result of Environmental Restoration activities at Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office (DOE-ORO), sites. Considered in the scope of this document are volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of remedial action and decontamination and decommissioning activities taking place at these sites. Sites contributing to the total estimates make up the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Y-12 Plant, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, and the off-site contaminated areas adjacent to the Oak Ridge facilities (collectively referred to as the Oak Ridge Reservation Off-Site area). Estimates are available for the entire fife of all waste generating activities. This document summarizes waste estimates forecasted for the 8-year period of FY 1994-FY 2001. Updates with varying degrees of change are expected throughout the refinement of restoration strategies currently in progress at each of the sites. Waste forecast data are relatively fluid, and this document represents remediation plans only as reported through September 1993.

  7. Final Report, 2011-2014. Forecasting Carbon Storage as Eastern Forests Age. Joining Experimental and Modeling Approaches at the UMBS AmeriFlux Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis, Peter; Bohrer, Gil; Gough, Christopher; Nadelhoffer, Knute

    2015-03-12

    At the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) AmeriFlux sites (US-UMB and US-UMd), long-term C cycling measurements and a novel ecosystem-scale experiment are revealing physical, biological, and ecological mechanisms driving long-term trajectories of C cycling, providing new data for improving modeling forecasts of C storage in eastern forests. Our findings provide support for previously untested hypotheses that stand-level structural and biological properties constrain long-term trajectories of C storage, and that remotely sensed canopy structural parameters can substantially improve model forecasts of forest C storage. Through the Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET), we are directly testing the hypothesis that forest C storage will increase due to increasing structural and biological complexity of the emerging tree communities. Support from this project, 2011-2014, enabled us to incorporate novel physical and ecological mechanisms into ecological, meteorological, and hydrological models to improve forecasts of future forest C storage in response to disturbance, succession, and current and long-term climate variation

  8. Review of sustainability indices and indicators: Towards a new City Sustainability Index (CSI)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mori, Koichiro; Christodoulou, Aris

    2012-01-15

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss conceptual requirements for a City Sustainability Index (CSI) and to review existing major sustainability indices/indicators in terms of the requirements. The following indices are reviewed: Ecological Footprint (EF), Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI), Dashboard of Sustainability (DS), Welfare Index, Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare, City Development Index, emergy/exergy, Human Development Index (HDI), Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI), Environmental Policy Index (EPI), Living Planet Index (LPI), Environmentally-adjusted Domestic Product (EDP), Genuine Saving (GS), and some applications of composite indices or/and multivariate indicators to local or regional context as case studies. The key conceptual requirements for an adequate CSI are: (i) to consider environmental, economic and social aspects (the triple bottom line of sustainability) from the viewpoint of strong sustainability; (ii) to capture external impacts (leakage effects) of city on other areas beyond the city boundaries particularly in terms of environmental aspects; (iii) to create indices/indicators originally for the purpose of assessing city sustainability; and (iv) to be able to assess world cities in both developed and developing countries using common axes of evaluation. Based on the review, we conclude that it is necessary to create a new CSI that enables us to assess and compare cities' sustainability performance in order to understand the global impact of cities on the environment and human life as compared with their economic contribution. In the future, the CSI will be able to provide local authorities with guidance toward sustainable paths. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We derive the four key requirements for a new City Sustainability Index (CSI) system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer First, the triple bottom line must be considered in terms of strong sustainability. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Second, environmental leakage effects beyond city boundaries should be captured. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Third, 'city sustainability' should be originally considered when CSI is created. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Fourth, cities in developed and developing countries can be evaluated without bias.

  9. Comparisons of Independent Petroleum Supply Statistics

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2005-01-01

    Compares final petroleum data published in the Petroleum Supply Annual with similar petroleum data obtained from other sources. Data comparisons are presented for 1994 through 2003.

  10. Constructing a resilience index for the Enhanced Critical Infrastructure Protection Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fisher, R. E.; Bassett, G. W.; Buehring, W. A.; Collins, M. J.; Dickinson, D. C.; Eaton, L. K.; Haffenden, R. A.; Hussar, N. E.; Klett, M. S.; Lawlor, M. A.; Millier, D. J.; Petit, F. D.; Peyton, S. M.; Wallace, K. E.; Whitfield, R. G.; Peerenboom, J P

    2010-10-14

    Following recommendations made in Homeland Security Presidential Directive 7, which established a national policy for the identification and increased protection of critical infrastructure and key resources (CIKR) by Federal departments and agencies, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in 2006 developed the Enhanced Critical Infrastructure Protection (ECIP) program. The ECIP program aimed to provide a closer partnership with state, regional, territorial, local, and tribal authorities in fulfilling the national objective to improve CIKR protection. The program was specifically designed to identify protective measures currently in place in CIKR and to inform facility owners/operators of the benefits of new protective measures. The ECIP program also sought to enhance existing relationships between DHS and owners/operators of CIKR and to build relationships where none existed (DHS 2008; DHS 2009). In 2009, DHS and its protective security advisors (PSAs) began assessing CIKR assets using the ECIP program and ultimately produced individual protective measure and vulnerability values through the protective measure and vulnerability indices (PMI/VI). The PMI/VI assess the protective measures posture of individual facilities at their 'weakest link,' allowing for a detailed analysis of the most vulnerable aspects of the facilities (Schneier 2003), while maintaining the ability to produce an overall protective measures picture. The PMI has six main components (physical security, security management, security force, information sharing, protective measures assessments, and dependencies) and focuses on actions taken by a facility to prevent or deter the occurrence of an incident (Argonne National Laboratory 2009). As CIKR continue to be assessed using the PMI/VI and owners/operators better understand how they can prevent or deter incidents, academic research, practitioner emphasis, and public policy formation have increasingly focused on resilience as a necessary component of the risk management framework and infrastructure protection. This shift in focus toward resilience complements the analysis of protective measures by taking into account the three other phases of risk management: mitigation, response, and recovery (Figure 1). Thus, the addition of a robust resilience index (RI) to the established PMI/VI provides vital information to owners/operators throughout the risk management process. Combining a pre-incident focus with a better understanding of resilience, as well as potential consequences from damaged CIKR, allows owners/operators to better understand different ways to decrease risk by (1) increasing physical security measures to prevent an incident, (2) supplementing redundancy to mitigate the effects of an incident, and (3) enhancing emergency action and business continuity planning to increase the effectiveness of recovery procedures. Information provided by the RI methodology is also used by facility owners/operators to better understand how their facilities compare to similar sector/subsector sites and to help them make risk-based decisions. This report provides an overview of the RI methodology developed to estimate resilience and provide resilience comparisons for sectors and subsectors. The information will be used to (1) assist DHS in analyzing existing response and recovery methods and programs at facilities and (2) identify potential ways to increase resilience. The RI methodology is based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry, which is 'the coevolutionary search for the best in people, their organizations, and the relevant world around them' (Cooperrider et al. 2005). Appreciative Inquiry identifies the best of 'what is' and helps to envision 'what might be.' The ECIP program and the RI represent a new model (using Appreciative Inquiry principles) for information sharing between government and industry (Fisher and Petit 2010). A 'dashboard' display, which provides an interactive tool - rather than a static report, presents the results of the RI in a convenient format. Additional resilience measures c

  11. Indexing Permafrost Soil Organic Matter Degradation Using High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Mann, Benjamin F.; Chen, Hongmei; Herndon, Elizabeth M.; Chu, Rosalie K.; Tolic, Nikola; Portier, Evan F.; Roy Chowdhury, Taniya; Robinson, Errol W.; Callister, Stephen J.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; et al

    2015-06-12

    Microbial degradation of soil organic matter (SOM) is a key process for terrestrial carbon cycling, although the molecular details of these transformations remain unclear. This study reports the application of ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry to profile the molecular composition of SOM and its degradation during a simulated warming experiment. A soil sample, collected near Barrow, Alaska, USA, was subjected to a 40-day incubation under anoxic conditions and analyzed before and after the incubation to determine changes of SOM composition. A CHO index based on molecular C, H, and O data was utilized to codify SOM components according to their observedmore » degradation potentials. Compounds with a CHO index score between –1 and 0 in a water-soluble fraction (WSF) demonstrated high degradation potential, with a highest shift of CHO index occurred in the N-containing group of compounds, while similar stoichiometries in a base-soluble fraction (BSF) did not. Additionally, compared with the classical H:C vs O:C van Krevelen diagram, CHO index allowed for direct visualization of the distribution of heteroatoms such as N in the identified SOM compounds. We demonstrate that CHO index is useful not only in characterizing arctic SOM at the molecular level but also enabling quantitative description of SOM degradation, thereby facilitating incorporation of the high resolution MS datasets to future mechanistic models of SOM degradation and prediction of greenhouse gas emissions.« less

  12. Negative running of the spectral index, hemispherical asymmetry and the consistency of Planck with large r

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McDonald, John

    2014-11-01

    Planck favours a negative running of the spectral index, with the likelihood being dominated by low multipoles l?<50 and no preference for running at higher l. A negative spectral index is also necessary for the 2- Planck upper bound on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r to be consistent with values significantly larger than 0.1. Planck has also observed a hemispherical asymmetry of the CMB power spectrum, again mostly at low multipoles. Here we consider whether the physics responsible for the hemispherical asymmetry could also account for the negative running of the spectral index and the consistency of Planck with a large value of r. A negative running of the spectral index can be generated if the hemispherical asymmetry is due to a scale- and space-dependent modulation which suppresses the CMB power spectrum at low multipoles. We show that the observed hemispherical asymmetry at low l can be generated while satisfying constraints on the asymmetry at higher l and generating a negative spectral index of the right magnitude to account for the Planck observation and to allow Planck to be consistent with a large value of r.

  13. Indexing Permafrost Soil Organic Matter Degradation Using High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mann, Benjamin F.; Chen, Hongmei; Herndon, Elizabeth M.; Chu, Rosalie K.; Tolic, Nikola; Portier, Evan F.; Roy Chowdhury, Taniya; Robinson, Errol W.; Callister, Stephen J.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Graham, David E.; Liang, Liyuan; Gu, Baohua; Hui, Dafeng

    2015-06-12

    Microbial degradation of soil organic matter (SOM) is a key process for terrestrial carbon cycling, although the molecular details of these transformations remain unclear. This study reports the application of ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry to profile the molecular composition of SOM and its degradation during a simulated warming experiment. A soil sample, collected near Barrow, Alaska, USA, was subjected to a 40-day incubation under anoxic conditions and analyzed before and after the incubation to determine changes of SOM composition. A CHO index based on molecular C, H, and O data was utilized to codify SOM components according to their observed degradation potentials. Compounds with a CHO index score between 1 and 0 in a water-soluble fraction (WSF) demonstrated high degradation potential, with a highest shift of CHO index occurred in the N-containing group of compounds, while similar stoichiometries in a base-soluble fraction (BSF) did not. Additionally, compared with the classical H:C vs O:C van Krevelen diagram, CHO index allowed for direct visualization of the distribution of heteroatoms such as N in the identified SOM compounds. We demonstrate that CHO index is useful not only in characterizing arctic SOM at the molecular level but also enabling quantitative description of SOM degradation, thereby facilitating incorporation of the high resolution MS datasets to future mechanistic models of SOM degradation and prediction of greenhouse gas emissions.

  14. Summary of available waste forecast data for the Environmental Restoration Program at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    This report identifies patterns of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Environmental Restoration (ER) waste generation that are predicted by the current ER Waste Generation Forecast data base. It compares the waste volumes to be generated with the waste management capabilities of current and proposed treatment, storage, or disposal (TSD) facilities. The scope of this report is limited to wastes generated during activities funded by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environmental Restoration (EM-40) and excludes wastes from the decontamination and decommissioning of facilities. Significant quantities of these wastes are expected to be generated during ER activities. This report has been developed as a management tool supporting communication and coordination of waste management activities at ORNL. It summarizes the available data for waste that will be generated as a result of remediation activities under the direction of the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office and identifies areas requiring continued waste management planning and coordination. Based on the available data, it is evident that most remedial action wastes leaving the area of contamination can be managed adequately with existing and planned ORR waste management facilities if attention is given to waste generation scheduling and the physical limitations of particular TSD facilities. Limited use of off-site commercial TSD facilities is anticipated, provided the affected waste streams can be shown to satisfy the requirements of the performance objective for certification of non-radioactive hazardous waste and the waste acceptance criteria of the off-site facilities. Ongoing waste characterization will be required to determine the most appropriate TSD facility for each waste stream.

  15. Method of producing optical quality glass having a selected refractive index

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Poco, John F. (Livermore, CA); Hrubesh, Lawrence W. (Livermore, CA)

    2000-01-01

    Optical quality glass having a selected refractive index is produced by a two stage drying process. A gel is produced using sol-gel chemistry techniques and first dried by controlled evaporation until the gel volume reaches a pre-selected value. This pre-selected volume determines the density and refractive index of the finally dried gel. The gel is refilled with solvent in a saturated vapor environment, and then dried again by supercritical extraction of the solvent to form a glass. The glass has a refractive index less than the full density of glass, and the range of achievable refractive indices depends on the composition of the glass. Glasses having different refractive indices chosen from an uninterrupted range of values can be produced from a single precursor solution.

  16. Storing files in a parallel computing system using list-based index to identify replica files

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Faibish, Sorin; Bent, John M.; Tzelnic, Percy; Zhang, Zhenhua; Grider, Gary

    2015-07-21

    Improved techniques are provided for storing files in a parallel computing system using a list-based index to identify file replicas. A file and at least one replica of the file are stored in one or more storage nodes of the parallel computing system. An index for the file comprises at least one list comprising a pointer to a storage location of the file and a storage location of the at least one replica of the file. The file comprises one or more of a complete file and one or more sub-files. The index may also comprise a checksum value for one or more of the file and the replica(s) of the file. The checksum value can be evaluated to validate the file and/or the file replica(s). A query can be processed using the list.

  17. Identification of RESNET HERS Index Values Corresponding to Minimal Complicance with the IECC Performance Path

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Taylor, Zachary T.; Mendon, Vrushali V.

    2014-05-01

    This analysis provides a limited evaluation of the relationship between the Residential Energy Services Network (RESNET) Home Energy Rating System (HERS) Index and the simulation-based performance approach used in the 2012 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). Not all differences between the approaches are analyzed here; only a subset of the distinctions considered likely to result in quantifiable differences in the outcomes of the two approaches or otherwise believed to be of interest to code developers and policy makers are considered. This analysis evaluates, for a single-family residence with various characteristics, the ranges of HERS Index values that would result in compliance with the 2012 IECC.

  18. Indexing and TEM Sample Preparation of Isolated CdTe/CdS Nano-Islands.

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Conference) | SciTech Connect Conference: Indexing and TEM Sample Preparation of Isolated CdTe/CdS Nano-Islands. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Indexing and TEM Sample Preparation of Isolated CdTe/CdS Nano-Islands. Abstract not provided. Authors: Aguirre, Brandon Adrian ; Cruz-Campa, Jose Luis ; Jungjohann, Katherine Leigh ; Pete, Douglas V. ; Zubia, David Publication Date: 2014-03-01 OSTI Identifier: 1140918 Report Number(s): SAND2014-2312C 505756 DOE Contract Number:

  19. All-dielectric three-dimensional broadband Eaton lens with large refractive index range

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yin, Ming; Yong Tian, Xiao, E-mail: leoxyt@mail.xjtu.edu.cn; Ling Wu, Ling; Chen Li, Di [State Key Laboratory for Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049 (China)

    2014-03-03

    We proposed a method to realize three-dimensional (3D) gradient index (GRIN) devices requiring large refractive index (RI) range with broadband performance. By combining non-resonant GRIN woodpile photonic crystals structure in the metamaterial regime with a compound liquid medium, a wide RI range (16.32) was fulfilled flexibly. As a proof-of-principle for the low-loss and non-dispersive method, a 3D Eaton lens was designed and fabricated based on 3D printing process. Full-wave simulation and experiment validated its omnidirectional wave bending effects in a broad bandwidth covering Ku band (12?GHz18?GHz)

  20. Flux and Photon Spectral Index Distributions of Fermi-LAT Blazars and

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Contribution to the Extragalactic Gamma-ray Background (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Flux and Photon Spectral Index Distributions of Fermi-LAT Blazars and Contribution to the Extragalactic Gamma-ray Background Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Flux and Photon Spectral Index Distributions of Fermi-LAT Blazars and Contribution to the Extragalactic Gamma-ray Background We present a determination of the distributions of gamma-ray flux - the so called LogN-LogS relation - and

  1. Extraction of diffuse correlation spectroscopy flow index by integration of Nth-order linear model with Monte Carlo simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shang, Yu; Lin, Yu; Yu, Guoqiang; Li, Ting; Chen, Lei; Toborek, Michal

    2014-05-12

    Conventional semi-infinite solution for extracting blood flow index (BFI) from diffuse correlation spectroscopy (DCS) measurements may cause errors in estimation of BFI (αD{sub B}) in tissues with small volume and large curvature. We proposed an algorithm integrating Nth-order linear model of autocorrelation function with the Monte Carlo simulation of photon migrations in tissue for the extraction of αD{sub B}. The volume and geometry of the measured tissue were incorporated in the Monte Carlo simulation, which overcome the semi-infinite restrictions. The algorithm was tested using computer simulations on four tissue models with varied volumes/geometries and applied on an in vivo stroke model of mouse. Computer simulations shows that the high-order (N ≥ 5) linear algorithm was more accurate in extracting αD{sub B} (errors < ±2%) from the noise-free DCS data than the semi-infinite solution (errors: −5.3% to −18.0%) for different tissue models. Although adding random noises to DCS data resulted in αD{sub B} variations, the mean values of errors in extracting αD{sub B} were similar to those reconstructed from the noise-free DCS data. In addition, the errors in extracting the relative changes of αD{sub B} using both linear algorithm and semi-infinite solution were fairly small (errors < ±2.0%) and did not rely on the tissue volume/geometry. The experimental results from the in vivo stroke mice agreed with those in simulations, demonstrating the robustness of the linear algorithm. DCS with the high-order linear algorithm shows the potential for the inter-subject comparison and longitudinal monitoring of absolute BFI in a variety of tissues/organs with different volumes/geometries.

  2. Distributed Wind Policy Comparison Tool

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2011-12-01

    Power through Policy: 'Best Practices' for Cost-Effective Distributed Wind is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-funded project to identify distributed wind technology policy best practices and to help policymakers, utilities, advocates, and consumers examine their effectiveness using a pro forma model. Incorporating a customized feed from the Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency (DSIRE), the Web-based Distributed Wind Policy Comparison Tool (Policy Tool) is designed to assist state, local, and utility officials in understanding the financial impacts of different policy options to help reduce the cost of distributed wind technologies. The Policy Tool can be used to evaluate the ways that a variety of federal and state policies and incentives impact the economics of distributed wind (and subsequently its expected market growth). It also allows policymakers to determine the impact of policy options, addressing market challenges identified in the U.S. DOEs '20% Wind Energy by 2030' report and helping to meet COE targets.

  3. Attractor comparisons based on density

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carroll, T. L.

    2015-01-15

    Recognizing a chaotic attractor can be seen as a problem in pattern recognition. Some feature vector must be extracted from the attractor and used to compare to other attractors. The field of machine learning has many methods for extracting feature vectors, including clustering methods, decision trees, support vector machines, and many others. In this work, feature vectors are created by representing the attractor as a density in phase space and creating polynomials based on this density. Density is useful in itself because it is a one dimensional function of phase space position, but representing an attractor as a density is also a way to reduce the size of a large data set before analyzing it with graph theory methods, which can be computationally intensive. The density computation in this paper is also fast to execute. In this paper, as a demonstration of the usefulness of density, the density is used directly to construct phase space polynomials for comparing attractors. Comparisons between attractors could be useful for tracking changes in an experiment when the underlying equations are too complicated for vector field modeling.

  4. RTU Comparison Calculator Enhancement Plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, James D.; Wang, Weimin; Katipamula, Srinivas

    2014-03-31

    Over the past two years, Department of Energys Building Technologies Office (BTO) has been investigating ways to increase the operating efficiency of the packaged rooftop units (RTUs) in the field. First, by issuing a challenge to the RTU manufactures to increase the integrated energy efficiency ratio (IEER) by 60% over the existing ASHRAE 90.1-2010 standard. Second, by evaluating the performance of an advanced RTU controller that reduces the energy consumption by over 40%. BTO has previously also funded development of a RTU comparison calculator (RTUCC). RTUCC is a web-based tool that provides the user a way to compare energy and cost savings for two units with different efficiencies. However, the RTUCC currently cannot compare savings associated with either the RTU Challenge unit or the advanced RTU controls retrofit. Therefore, BTO has asked PNNL to enhance the tool so building owners can compare energy and savings associated with this new class of products. This document provides the details of the enhancements that are required to support estimating energy savings from use of RTU challenge units or advanced controls on existing RTUs.

  5. RTU Comparison Calculator Enhancement Plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, James D.; Wang, Weimin; Katipamula, Srinivas

    2015-07-01

    Over the past two years, Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office (BTO) has been investigating ways to increase the operating efficiency of the packaged rooftop units (RTUs) in the field. First, by issuing a challenge to the RTU manufactures to increase the integrated energy efficiency ratio (IEER) by 60% over the existing ASHRAE 90.1-2010 standard. Second, by evaluating the performance of an advanced RTU controller that reduces the energy consumption by over 40%. BTO has previously also funded development of a RTU comparison calculator (RTUCC). RTUCC is a web-based tool that provides the user a way to compare energy and cost savings for two units with different efficiencies. However, the RTUCC currently cannot compare savings associated with either the RTU Challenge unit or the advanced RTU controls retrofit. Therefore, BTO has asked PNNL to enhance the tool so building owners can compare energy and savings associated with this new class of products. This document provides the details of the enhancements that are required to support estimating energy savings from use of RTU challenge units or advanced controls on existing RTUs.

  6. Glasses having a low non-linear refractive index for laser applications

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Faulstich, Marga; Jahn, Walter; Krolla, Georg; Neuroth, Norbert

    1980-01-01

    Glass composition ranges are described which permit the introduction of laser activators into fluorphosphate glass with exceptionally high fluorine content while forming glasses of high crystallization stability and permitting the realization of large melt volumes. The high fluorine content imparts to the glasses an exceptionally low nonlinear refractive index n.sub.2 down to O,4 .times.10.sup.-13 esu.

  7. Directives Checklist and Cross-Reference Index as of 2-12-91

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1991-02-26

    The order transmits a checklist of current Department of Energy (DOE) and Headquarters (HQ) directives and a cross-reference index of DOE and HQ Orders published on or before 2-12-91. Cancels DOE O 0000.2c. Canceled by DOE N 1321.139.

  8. Data summary of municipal solid waste management alternatives. Volume 11, Alphabetically indexed bibliography

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1992-10-01

    This appendix contains the alphabetically indexed bibliography for the complete group of reports on municipal waste management alternatives. The references are listed for each of the following topics: mass burn technologies, RDF technologies, fluidized-bed combustion, pyrolysis and gasification of MSW, materials recovery- recycling technologies, sanitary landfills, composting, and anaerobic digestion of MSW.

  9. Data summary of municipal solid waste management alternatives. Volume 12, Numerically indexed bibliography

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1992-10-01

    This appendix contains the numerically indexed bibliography for the complete group of reports on municipal solid waste management alternatives. The list references information on the following topics: mass burn technologies, RDF technologies, fluidized bed combustion, pyrolysis and gasification of MSW, materials recovery- recycling technologies, sanitary landfills, composting and anaerobic digestion of MSW.

  10. Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal): Annual compilation for 1997. Volume 22, Number 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-04-01

    This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility.

  11. The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

    2012-12-31

    ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most wind plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational setting. It shall be demonstrated that when used properly, the real-time offsite measurements materially improve wind ramp capture and prediction statistics, when compared to traditional wind forecasting techniques and to a simple persistence model.

  12. Master index for the carbon dioxide research state-of-the-art report series

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Farrell, M P

    1987-03-01

    Four State of the Art (SOA) reports, ''Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and the Global Carbon Cycle,'' ''Direct Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide on Vegetation,'' ''Detecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,'' and ''Projecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,'' and two companion reports, ''Characterization of Information Requirements for Studies of CO/sub 2/ Effects: Water Resources, Agriculture, Fisheries, Forests and Human Health'' and ''Glaciers, Ice Sheets, and Sea Level: Effect of a CO/sub 2/-Induced Climatic Change,'' were published by the US Department of Energy's Carbon Dioxide Research Division. Considerable information on atmospheric carbon dioxide and its possible effects on world climate is summarized in these six volumes. Each volume has its own index, but to make the information that is distributed throughout the six volumes more accessible and usable, comprehensive citation and subject indexes have been compiled. The subject indexes of the individual volumes have been edited to provide a uniformity from volume to volume and also to draw distinctions not needed in the separate volumes' indexes. Also, the comprehensive subject index has been formatted in a matrix arrangement to graphically show the distribution of subject treatment from volume to volume. Other aids include cross references between the scientific and common names of the animals and plants referred to, a glossary of special terms used, tables of data and conversion factors related to the data, and explanations of the acronyms and initialisms used in the texts of the six volumes. The executive summaries of the six volumes are collected and reproduced to allow the readers interested in the contents of one volume to rapidly gain information on the contents of the other volumes.

  13. Nuclear Facility Decommissioning and Site Remedial Actions: A selected bibliography, Volume 14. Environmental Restoration Program: Part 2, Indexes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goins, L.F.; Webb, J.R.; Cravens, C.D.; Mallory, P.K.

    1993-09-01

    This Part 2 of this report provides indexes of: Author, Corporate Affiliation, Title Word, Publication Description, Geographic Location, Subject Category, and Key Words.

  14. Torque/Moab vs. SLURM Comparisons

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Users » Torque/Moab vs. SLURM Comparisons Torque/Moab vs. SLURM Comparisons TORQUE vs. SLURM Comparison Tables Moab/Torque vs. Slurm Environment Variables Description Moab/Torque Slurm Job Id $PBS_JOBID $SLURM_JOB_ID Job Name $PBS_JOBNAME $SLURM_JOB_NAME Submit Directory $PBS_O_WORKDIR $SLURM_SUBMIT_DIR Node List $PBS_NODEFILE $SLURM_NODELIST Host submitted from $PBS_O_HOST $SLURM_SUBMIT_HOST Nodes allocated $PBS_NUM_NODES $SLURM_JOB_NUM_NODES Number cores/nodes $PBS_NUM_PPN $SLURM_CPUS_ON_NODE

  15. Fuel Cell Comparison of Distributed Power Generation Technologies...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Comparison of Distributed Power Generation Technologies Fuel Cell Comparison of Distributed Power Generation Technologies This report examines backup power and prime power systems...

  16. Comparison of methods for geologic storage of carbon dioxide...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Comparison of methods for geologic storage of carbon dioxide in saline formations Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Comparison of methods for geologic...

  17. Comparison of Real World Energy Consumption to Models and DOE...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Comparison of Real World Energy Consumption to Models and DOE Test Procedures Comparison of Real World Energy Consumption to Models and DOE Test Procedures This study investigates ...

  18. Particle Measurement Methodology: Comparison of On-road and Lab...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Measurement Methodology: Comparison of On-road and Lab Diesel Particle Size Distributions Particle Measurement Methodology: Comparison of On-road and Lab Diesel Particle Size ...

  19. Comparison of Fuel Cell Technologies: Fact Sheet | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    An overview comparison of fuel cell technologies by the Fuel Cell Technologies Office. Comparison of Fuel Cell Technologies More Documents & Publications Hydrogen and Fuel Cell...

  20. Comparison Between Keyhole Weld Model and Laser Welding Experiments...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: Comparison Between Keyhole Weld Model and Laser Welding Experiments Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Comparison Between Keyhole Weld Model and Laser...

  1. Comparisons of neutrino event generators from an oscillation...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    of high energy physics data, ideally giving a baseline comparison between the state-of-art theoretical models and experimental data. Presented here is a comparison between three...

  2. Comparison of the Amanzi Model against Analytical Solutions and...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Comparison of the Amanzi Model against Analytical Solutions and the FEHM Model Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Comparison of the Amanzi Model against Analytical...

  3. Comparison of Uncertainty of Two Precipitation Prediction Models...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Comparison of Uncertainty of Two Precipitation Prediction Models at Los Alamos National Lab Technical Area 54 Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Comparison of Uncertainty...

  4. Posters Comparisons of Brightness Temperature Measurements and...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    radiometric observations of atmospheric emission and attenuation at 20.6, 31.65, and 90 GHz: A comparison of measurements and theory. IEEE Trans. Antennas Prop. AP-38:1569...

  5. Dielectric waveguide with transverse index variation that support a zero group velocity mode at a non-zero longitudinal wavevector

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ibanescu, Mihai; Joannopoious, John D.; Fink, Yoel; Johnson, Steven G.; Fan, Shanhui

    2005-06-21

    Optical components including a laser based on a dielectric waveguide extending along a waveguide axis and having a refractive index cross-section perpendicular to the waveguide axis, the refractive index cross-section supporting an electromagnetic mode having a zero group velocity for a non-zero wavevector along the waveguide axis.

  6. Development of an Immersed Boundary Method to Resolve Complex Terrain in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lunquist, K A; Chow, F K; Lundquist, J K; Mirocha, J D

    2007-09-04

    Flow and dispersion processes in urban areas are profoundly influenced by the presence of buildings which divert mean flow, affect surface heating and cooling, and alter the structure of turbulence in the lower atmosphere. Accurate prediction of velocity, temperature, and turbulent kinetic energy fields are necessary for determining the transport and dispersion of scalars. Correct predictions of scalar concentrations are vital in densely populated urban areas where they are used to aid in emergency response planning for accidental or intentional releases of hazardous substances. Traditionally, urban flow simulations have been performed by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes which can accommodate the geometric complexity inherent to urban landscapes. In these types of models the grid is aligned with the solid boundaries, and the boundary conditions are applied to the computational nodes coincident with the surface. If the CFD code uses a structured curvilinear mesh, then time-consuming manual manipulation is needed to ensure that the mesh conforms to the solid boundaries while minimizing skewness. If the CFD code uses an unstructured grid, then the solver cannot be optimized for the underlying data structure which takes an irregular form. Unstructured solvers are therefore often slower and more memory intensive than their structured counterparts. Additionally, urban-scale CFD models are often forced at lateral boundaries with idealized flow, neglecting dynamic forcing due to synoptic scale weather patterns. These CFD codes solve the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations and include limited options for representing atmospheric processes such as surface fluxes and moisture. Traditional CFD codes therefore posses several drawbacks, due to the expense of either creating the grid or solving the resulting algebraic system of equations, and due to the idealized boundary conditions and the lack of full atmospheric physics. Meso-scale atmospheric boundary layer simulations, on the other hand, are performed by numerical weather prediction (NWP) codes, which cannot handle the geometry of the urban landscape, but do provide a more complete representation of atmospheric physics. NWP codes typically use structured grids with terrain-following vertical coordinates, include a full suite of atmospheric physics parameterizations, and allow for dynamic synoptic scale lateral forcing through grid nesting. Terrain following grids are unsuitable for urban terrain, as steep terrain gradients cause extreme distortion of the computational cells. In this work, we introduce and develop an immersed boundary method (IBM) to allow the favorable properties of a numerical weather prediction code to be combined with the ability to handle complex terrain. IBM uses a non-conforming structured grid, and allows solid boundaries to pass through the computational cells. As the terrain passes through the mesh in an arbitrary manner, the main goal of the IBM is to apply the boundary condition on the interior of the domain as accurately as possible. With the implementation of the IBM, numerical weather prediction codes can be used to explicitly resolve urban terrain. Heterogeneous urban domains using the IBM can be nested into larger mesoscale domains using a terrain-following coordinate. The larger mesoscale domain provides lateral boundary conditions to the urban domain with the correct forcing, allowing seamless integration between mesoscale and urban scale models. Further discussion of the scope of this project is given by Lundquist et al. [2007]. The current paper describes the implementation of an IBM into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open source numerical weather prediction code. The WRF model solves the non-hydrostatic compressible Navier-Stokes equations, and employs an isobaric terrain-following vertical coordinate. Many types of IB methods have been developed by researchers; a comprehensive review can be found in Mittal and Iaccarino [2005]. To the authors knowledge, this is the first IBM approach that is able to

  7. Bibliography and author index for electrical discharges in vacuum (1897 to 1980)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, H.C.

    1982-01-29

    This bibliography covers the field of electrical discharges in vacuum, comprising both electrical breakdown in vacuum and vacuum arcs. A brief review section lists some review papers which would be helpful to the novice in this field. The bulk of the paper consists of bibliographic listings, arranged by year of publication and within each year, alphabetically by first author. An author index refers one to all papers authored or coauthored by a particular person. There are 2450 papers listed through December 1980.

  8. 1989 OCRWM [Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management] Bulletin compilation and index

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1990-02-01

    The OCRWM Bulletin is published by the Department of Energy, Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to provide current information about the national program for managing spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste. This document is a compilation of issues from the 1989 calendar year. A table of contents and one index have been provided to assist in finding information contained in this year`s Bulletins. The pages have been numbered consecutively at the bottom for easy reference. 7 figs.

  9. Proposal of an environmental performance index to assess solid waste treatment technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goulart Coelho, Hosmanny Mauro; Lange, Lisete Celina; Coelho, Lineker Max Goulart

    2012-07-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Proposal of a new concept in waste management: Cleaner Treatment. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Development of an index to assess quantitatively waste treatment technologies. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Delphi Method was carried out so as to define environmental indicators. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Environmental performance evaluation of waste-to-energy plants. - Abstract: Although the concern with sustainable development and environment protection has considerably grown in the last years it is noted that the majority of decision making models and tools are still either excessively tied to economic aspects or geared to the production process. Moreover, existing models focus on the priority steps of solid waste management, beyond waste energy recovery and disposal. So, in order to help the lack of models and tools aiming at the waste treatment and final disposal, a new concept is proposed: the Cleaner Treatment, which is based on the Cleaner Production principles. This paper focuses on the development and validation of the Cleaner Treatment Index (CTI), to assess environmental performance of waste treatment technologies based on the Cleaner Treatment concept. The index is formed by aggregation (summation or product) of several indicators that consists in operational parameters. The weights of the indicator were established by Delphi Method and Brazilian Environmental Laws. In addition, sensitivity analyses were carried out comparing both aggregation methods. Finally, index validation was carried out by applying the CTI to 10 waste-to-energy plants data. From sensitivity analysis and validation results it is possible to infer that summation model is the most suitable aggregation method. For summation method, CTI results were superior to 0.5 (in a scale from 0 to 1) for most facilities evaluated. So, this study demonstrates that CTI is a simple and robust tool to assess and compare the environmental performance of different treatment plants being an excellent quantitative tool to support Cleaner Treatment implementation.

  10. A System Degradation Study of 445 Systems Using Year-Over-Year Performance Index Analysis

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This graphic summarizes the results of a study conducted by the SunPower Corporation, to assess the median degradation of a large number of systems. This is important because solar investors need proof of low degradation. The study, a project under DOE's SunShot Initiative, makes use of year-over-year performance index change analysis, a powerful and practical technique for assessing the median degradation of a large fleet of systems, which in this case includes a sample of 445.

  11. New Breast Cancer Recursive Partitioning Analysis Prognostic Index in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Brain Metastases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Niwinska, Anna; Murawska, Magdalena

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: The aim of the study was to present a new breast cancer recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) prognostic index for patients with newly diagnosed brain metastases as a guide in clinical decision making. Methods and Materials: A prospectively collected group of 441 consecutive patients with breast cancer and brain metastases treated between the years 2003 and 2009 was assessed. Prognostic factors significant for univariate analysis were included into RPA. Results: Three prognostic classes of a new breast cancer RPA prognostic index were selected. The median survival of patients within prognostic Classes I, II, and III was 29, 9, and 2.4 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). Class I included patients with one or two brain metastases, without extracranial disease or with controlled extracranial disease, and with Karnofsky performance status (KPS) of 100. Class III included patients with multiple brain metastases with KPS of {<=}60. Class II included all other cases. Conclusions: The breast cancer RPA prognostic index is an easy and valuable tool for use in clinical practice. It can select patients who require aggressive treatment and those in whom whole-brain radiotherapy or symptomatic therapy is the most reasonable option. An individual approach is required for patients from prognostic Class II.

  12. National Uranium Resource Evaluation. Bibliographic index of Grand Junction office uranium reports

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, J.B.

    1981-05-01

    In October 1978, Mesa College entered into subcontract with Bendix Field Engineering Corporation (BFEC) to prepare a bibliographic index of the uranium raw materials reports issued by the Grand Junction Office of the US Department of Energy (DOE). Bendix, prime contractor to the Grand Junction Office, operates the Technical Library at the DOE facility. Since the early 1950s, approximately 2700 reports have been issued by the Grand Junction Office. These reports were the results of uranium investigations conducted by federal agencies and their subcontractors. The majority of the reports cover geology, mineralogy, and metallurgy of uranium and/or thorium. No single, complete list of these reports existed. The purpose of this subcontract was to compile a comprehensive index to these reports. The Mesa College geology faculty worked with the BFEC and DOE staffs to develop the format for the index. Undergraduate geology students from Mesa compiled a master record sheet for each report. All reports issued up to January 1, 1979 were included in the bibliography. The bibliography is in preliminary, unedited form. It is being open-filed at this time, on microfiche, to make the information available to the public on a timely basis. The bibliography is divided into a master record list arranged in alpha-numeric order by report identification number, with separate indices arranged by title, author, state and county, 1/sup 0/ x 2/sup 0/ NTMS quadrangle, key words, and exploration area.

  13. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

  14. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID tomore » build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

  15. Systematic Comparison of Operating Reserve Methodologies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ibanez, E.; Krad, I.; Ela, E.

    2014-04-01

    Operating reserve requirements are a key component of modern power systems, and they contribute to maintaining reliable operations with minimum economic impact. No universal method exists for determining reserve requirements, thus there is a need for a thorough study and performance comparison of the different existing methodologies. Increasing penetrations of variable generation (VG) on electric power systems are posed to increase system uncertainty and variability, thus the need for additional reserve also increases. This paper presents background information on operating reserve and its relationship to VG. A consistent comparison of three methodologies to calculate regulating and flexibility reserve in systems with VG is performed.

  16. ARM - Field Campaign - ARRA AERI Comparison

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaignsARRA AERI Comparison ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : ARRA AERI Comparison 2011.01.07 - 2011.01.23 Lead Scientist : David Turner For data sets, see below. Abstract The ARM program, using stimulus funds from the ARRA, acquired a new AERI instrument for the SGP site. This new instrument was run side-by-side with the operational AERI at the SGP central facility to evaluate its

  17. Performance comparison between Edison and Hopper

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Performance comparison between Edison and Hopper Performance comparison between Edison and Hopper Edison compute node memory was upgraded to 1866 MHz from 1600 MHz on Jan 16, 2015. We rerun the SSP applications in dedicted or semi-dedicated mode on Edison again, and have observed 2-9% of increase in performance with the NERSC 6 application benchmark. The table below is the updated performance data: Application CAM GAMESS GTC IMPACT-T MAESTRO MILC PARATEC Concurrency 240 1024 2048 1024 2048 8192

  18. Intensity-modulated radiosurgery with rapidarc for multiple brain metastases and comparison with static approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang Jiazhu; Pawlicki, Todd; Rice, Roger; Mundt, Arno J.; Sandhu, Ajay; Lawson, Joshua; Murphy, Kevin T.

    2012-04-01

    Rotational RapidArc (RA) and static intensity-modulated radiosurgery (IMRS) have been used for brain radiosurgery. This study compares the 2 techniques from beam delivery parameters and dosimetry aspects for multiple brain metastases. Twelve patients with 2-12 brain lesions treated with IMRS were replanned using RA. For each patient, an optimal 2-arc RA plan from several trials was chosen for comparison with IMRS. Homogeneity, conformity, and gradient indexes have been calculated. The mean dose to normal brain and maximal dose to other critical organs were evaluated. It was found that monitor unit (MU) reduction by RA is more pronounced for cases with larger number of brain lesions. The MU-ratio of RA and IMRS is reduced from 104% to 39% when lesions increase from 2 to 12. The dose homogeneities are comparable in both techniques and the conformity and gradient indexes and critical organ doses are higher in RA. Treatment time is greatly reduced by RA in intracranial radiosurgery, because RA uses fewer MUs, fewer beams, and fewer couch angles.

  19. HDF5-FastQuery: An API for Simplifying Access to Data Storage,Retrieval, Indexing and Querying

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bethel, E. Wes; Gosink, Luke; Shalf, John; Stockinger, Kurt; Wu,Kesheng

    2006-06-15

    This work focuses on research and development activities that bridge a gap between fundamental data management technology index, query, storage and retrieval and use of such technology in computational and computer science algorithms and applications. The work has resulted in a streamlined applications programming interface (API) that simplifies data storage and retrieval using the HDF5 data I/O library, and eases use of the FastBit compressed bitmap indexing software for data indexing/querying. The API, which we call HDF5-FastQuery, will have broad applications in domain sciences as well as associated data analysis and visualization applications.

  20. Triangular lattice of carbon nanotube arrays for negative index of refraction and subwavelength lensing effect

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Y.; Wang, X.; Rybczynski, J.; Wang, D.Z.; Kempa, K.; Ren, Z.F.

    2005-04-11

    Self-assembly of polystyrene microspheres has been utilized in a two-step masking technique to prepare triangular lattices of catalytic nanodots at low cost. Subsequent triangular lattices of aligned carbon nanotubes on a silicon substrate are achieved by plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition. Nickel is used both in the nanodots and in the secondary mask. The triangular lattices of carbon nanotube arrays as two-dimensional photonic crystals show higher geometrical symmetry than the hexagonal lattices previously reported, enabling broader applications including negative index of refraction and subwavelength lensing effect.

  1. SIAM conference on applications of dynamical systems. Abstracts and author index

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-12-31

    A conference (Oct.15--19, 1992, Snowbird, Utah; sponsored by SIAM (Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics) Activity Group on Dynamical Systems) was held that highlighted recent developments in applied dynamical systems. The main lectures and minisymposia covered theory about chaotic motion, applications in high energy physics and heart fibrillations, turbulent motion, Henon map and attractor, integrable problems in classical physics, pattern formation in chemical reactions, etc. The conference fostered an exchange between mathematicians working on theoretical issues of modern dynamical systems and applied scientists. This two-part document contains abstracts, conference program, and an author index.

  2. U.S. Department of Energy Project Definition Rating Index Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2010-07-22

    This Guide assists individuals and teams involved in conducting assessments of project definition (i.e., how well front-end planning has been conducted to define project scope) using a numerical project management tool developed by the Construction Industry Institute (CII), tailored for DOE use. Called the Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI), the PDRI is a simple but powerful tool that facilitates the measurement of the degree of scope definition for completeness for traditional construction projects, both nuclear and non-nuclear. No cancellations.

  3. Development of a Habitat Suitability Index Model for the Sage Sparrow on the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Duberstein, Corey A.; Simmons, Mary Ann; Sackschewsky, Michael R.; Becker, James M.

    2008-01-01

    Mitigation threshold guidelines for the Hanford Site are based on habitat requirements of the sage sparrow (Amphispiza belli) and only apply to areas with a mature sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) overstory and a native understory. The sage sparrow habitat requirements are based on literature values and are not specific to the Hanford Site. To refine these guidelines for the Site, a multi-year study was undertaken to quantify habitat characteristics of sage sparrow territories. These characteristics were then used to develop a habitat suitability index (HSI) model which can be used to estimate the habitat value of specific locations on the Site.

  4. A to Z Index | OSTI, US Dept of Energy, Office of Scientific and Technical

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Information A to Z Index A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X About the Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) Accelerating Access Charts Accelerating the Spread of Knowledge about Science and Technology, Workshop Panel Report on (806-KB PDF) Accessibility Alliances Anniversary: Sixty Years of Knowledge Sharing (1947-2007) Announcements Atomic Energy Act of 1946 Audio Clips (have been archived, please see the OSTI

  5. Nuclear Energy Readiness Indicator Index (NERI): A benchmarking tool for assessing nuclear capacity in developing countries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Saum-Manning,L.

    2008-07-13

    Declining natural resources, rising oil prices, looming climate change and the introduction of nuclear energy partnerships, such as GNEP, have reinvigorated global interest in nuclear energy. The convergence of such issues has prompted countries to move ahead quickly to deal with the challenges that lie ahead. However, developing countries, in particular, often lack the domestic infrastructure and public support needed to implement a nuclear energy program in a safe, secure, and nonproliferation-conscious environment. How might countries become ready for nuclear energy? What is needed is a framework for assessing a country's readiness for nuclear energy. This paper suggests that a Nuclear Energy Readiness Indicator (NERI) Index might serve as a meaningful basis for assessing a country's status in terms of progress toward nuclear energy utilization under appropriate conditions. The NERI Index is a benchmarking tool that measures a country's level of 'readiness' for nonproliferation-conscious nuclear energy development. NERI first identifies 8 key indicators that have been recognized by the International Atomic Energy Agency as key nonproliferation and security milestones to achieve prior to establishing a nuclear energy program. It then measures a country's progress in each of these areas on a 1-5 point scale. In doing so NERI illuminates gaps or underdeveloped areas in a country's nuclear infrastructure with a view to enable stakeholders to prioritize the allocation of resources toward programs and policies supporting international nonproliferation goals through responsible nuclear energy development. On a preliminary basis, the indicators selected include: (1) demonstrated need; (2) expressed political support; (3) participation in nonproliferation and nuclear security treaties, international terrorism conventions, and export and border control arrangements; (4) national nuclear-related legal and regulatory mechanisms; (5) nuclear infrastructure; (6) the utilization of IAEA technical assistance; (7) participation in regional arrangements; and (8) public support for nuclear power. In this paper, the Index aggregates the indicators and evaluates and compares the level of readiness in seven countries that have recently expressed various degrees of interest in establishing a nuclear energy program. The NERI Index could be a valuable tool to be utilized by: (1) country officials who are considering nuclear power; (2) the international community, desiring reassurance of a country's capacity for the peaceful, safe, and secure use of nuclear energy; (3) foreign governments/NGO's, seeking to prioritize and direct resources toward developing countries; and (4) private stakeholders interested in nuclear infrastructure investment opportunities.

  6. Nuclear facility decommissioning and site remedial actions: A selected bibliography, Volume 13: Part 2, Indexes. Environmental Restoration Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goins, L.F.; Webb, J.R.; Cravens, C.D.; Mallory, P.K.

    1992-09-01

    This is part 2 of a bibliography on nuclear facility decommissioning and site remedial action. This report contains indexes on the following: authors, corporate affiliation, title words, publication description, geographic location, subject category, and key word.

  7. Optical coatings of variable refractive index and high laser-resistance from physical-vapor-deposited perfluorinated amorphous polymer

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chow, R.; Loomis, G.E.; Thomas, I.M.

    1999-03-16

    Variable index optical single-layers, optical multilayer, and laser-resistant coatings were made from a perfluorinated amorphous polymer material by physical vapor deposition. This was accomplished by physically vapor depositing a polymer material, such as bulk Teflon AF2400, for example, to form thin layers that have a very low refractive index (ca. 1.10--1.31) and are highly transparent from the ultra-violet through the near infrared regime, and maintain the low refractive index of the bulk material. The refractive index can be varied by simply varying one process parameter, either the deposition rate or the substrate temperature. The thus forming coatings may be utilized in anti-reflectors and graded anti-reflection coatings, as well as in optical layers for laser-resistant coatings at optical wavelengths of less than about 2000 nm. 2 figs.

  8. Optical coatings of variable refractive index and high laser-resistance from physical-vapor-deposited perfluorinated amorphous polymer

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chow, Robert (Livermore, CA); Loomis, Gary E. (Livermore, CA); Thomas, Ian M. (Livermore, CA)

    1999-01-01

    Variable index optical single-layers, optical multilayer, and laser-resistant coatings were made from a perfluorinated amorphous polymer material by physical vapor deposition. This was accomplished by physically vapor depositing a polymer material, such as bulk Teflon AF2400, for example, to form thin layers that have a very low refractive index (.about.1.10-1.31) and are highly transparent from the ultra-violet through the near infrared regime, and maintain the low refractive index of the bulk material. The refractive index can be varied by simply varying one process parameter, either the deposition rate or the substrate temperature. The thus forming coatings may be utilized in anti-reflectors and graded anti-reflection coatings, as well as in optical layers for laser-resistant coatings at optical wavelengths of less than about 2000 nm.

  9. Precision growth index using the clustering of cosmic structures and growth data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pouri, Athina; Basilakos, Spyros; Plionis, Manolis E-mail: svasil@academyofathens.gr

    2014-08-01

    We use the clustering properties of Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) and the growth rate data provided by the various galaxy surveys in order to constrain the growth index ?) of the linear matter fluctuations. We perform a standard ?{sup 2}-minimization procedure between theoretical expectations and data, followed by a joint likelihood analysis and we find a value of ?=0.560.05, perfectly consistent with the expectations of the ?CDM model, and ?{sub m0}=0.290.01, in very good agreement with the latest Planck results. Our analysis provides significantly more stringent growth index constraints with respect to previous studies, as indicated by the fact that the corresponding uncertainty is only ?0.09?. Finally, allowing ? to vary with redshift in two manners (Taylor expansion around z=0, and Taylor expansion around the scale factor), we find that the combined statistical analysis between our clustering and literature growth data alleviates the degeneracy and obtain more stringent constraints with respect to other recent studies.

  10. A MEASUREMENT OF THE ADIABATIC COOLING INDEX FOR INTERSTELLAR HELIUM PICKUP IONS IN THE INNER HELIOSPHERE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Saul, Lukas; Wurz, Peter; Kallenbach, Reinald

    2009-09-20

    Interstellar neutral gas enters the inner heliosphere where it is ionized and becomes the pickup ion population of the solar wind. It is often assumed that this population will subsequently cool adiabatically, like an expanding ideal gas due, to the divergent flow of the solar wind. Here, we report the first independent measure of the effective adiabatic cooling index in the inner heliosphere from SOHO CELIAS measurements of singly charged helium taken during times of perpendicular interplanetary magnetic field. We use a simple adiabatic transport model of interstellar pickup helium ions, valid for the upwind region of the inner heliosphere. The time averaged velocity spectrum of helium pickup ions measured by CELIAS/CTOF is fit to this model with a single free parameter which indicates an effective cooling rate with a power-law index of gamma = 1.35 +- 0.2. While this average is consistent with the 'ideal-gas' assumption of gamma = 1.5, the analysis indicates that such an assumption will not apply in general, and that due to observational constraints further measurements are necessary to constrain the cooling process. Implications are discussed for understanding the transport processes in the inner heliosphere and improving this measurement technique.

  11. Indexing amyloid peptide diffraction from serial femtosecond crystallography: New algorithms for sparse patterns

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Brewster, Aaron S.; Sawaya, Michael R.; Rodriguez, Jose; Hattne, Johan; Echols, Nathaniel; McFarlane, Heather T.; Cascio, Duilio; Adams, Paul D.; Eisenberg, David S.; Sauter, Nicholas K.

    2015-01-23

    Still diffraction patterns from peptide nanocrystals with small unit cells are challenging to index using conventional methods owing to the limited number of spots and the lack of crystal orientation information for individual images. New indexing algorithms have been developed as part of theComputational Crystallography Toolbox(cctbx) to overcome these challenges. Accurate unit-cell information derived from an aggregate data set from thousands of diffraction patterns can be used to determine a crystal orientation matrix for individual images with as few as five reflections. These algorithms are potentially applicable not only to amyloid peptides but also to any set of diffraction patternsmore » with sparse properties, such as low-resolution virus structures or high-throughput screening of still images captured by raster-scanning at synchrotron sources. As a proof of concept for this technique, successful integration of X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) data to 2.5 Å resolution for the amyloid segment GNNQQNY from the Sup35 yeast prion is presented.« less

  12. August 2009 QBR Follow Ups

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Agency Financial Information What are the assumptions behind lower streamflows and dropping prices in the 3 rd Quarter Forecast in comparison to the 2 nd Quarter Forecast? Are...

  13. Distributed Wind Policy Comparison Tool Website | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TOOL Name: Distributed Wind Policy Comparison Tool Website Focus Area: Renewable Energy Topics: Security & Reliability Website: www.eformativeoptions.comdwpolicytool...

  14. Discussion on a Code Comparison Effort for the Geothermal Technologies

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Program | Department of Energy Discussion on a Code Comparison Effort for the Geothermal Technologies Program Discussion on a Code Comparison Effort for the Geothermal Technologies Program Code comparison presentation by Mark White of PNNL at the 2012 Peer Review meeting on May 10. PDF icon gtp_2012peerreview_pnnl_white.pdf More Documents & Publications PNNL Support of the DOE GTO Model Comparison Activity Methane Hydrate Annual Reports Fiscal Year 2014 ASCEM Status Report

  15. Metrics for comparison of crystallographic maps

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Urzhumtsev, Alexandre; Afonine, Pavel V.; Lunin, Vladimir Y.; Terwilliger, Thomas C.; Adams, Paul D.

    2014-10-01

    Numerical comparison of crystallographic contour maps is used extensively in structure solution and model refinement, analysis and validation. However, traditional metrics such as the map correlation coefficient (map CC, real-space CC or RSCC) sometimes contradict the results of visual assessment of the corresponding maps. This article explains such apparent contradictions and suggests new metrics and tools to compare crystallographic contour maps. The key to the new methods is rank scaling of the Fourier syntheses. The new metrics are complementary to the usual map CC and can be more helpful in map comparison, in particular when only some of their aspects,more » such as regions of high density, are of interest.« less

  16. Comparison of Virtualization and Containerization Techniques for

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    High-Performance Computing | Argonne Leadership Computing Facility Comparison of Virtualization and Containerization Techniques for High-Performance Computing Event Sponsor: Mathematics and Computer Science Division Seminar Start Date: Feb 9 2016 - 12:00pm Building/Room: Building 240/Room 4301 Location: Argonne National Laboratory Speaker(s): Balaji Subramaniam Host: Kate Keahey High Performance Computing (HPC) users have traditionally used dedicated clusters hosted in national laboratories

  17. Workplace Charging: Comparison of Sustainable Commuting Options

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Workplace Charging: Comparison of Sustainable Commuting Options November 18, 2014 Austin Brown National Renewable Energy Laboratory vehicles.energy.gov Relevance of ROI calculation * Value Proposition for Employers - How are Lifecycle/Scope 3 GHG emissions affected? - What are my (employer) direct costs? - What is the Return on Investment (ROI)? - What are possible ancillary benefits? * How does Workplace Charging compare to: - Transit Subsidies - Vanpool Subsidies - Bike Purchase Subsidies 2 -

  18. Index to Nuclear Safety: a technical progress review by chronology, permuted title, and author, Volume 18 (1) through Volume 22 (6)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cottrell, W.B.; Passiakos, M.

    1982-06-01

    This index to Nuclear Safety covers articles published in Nuclear Safety, Volume 18, Number 1 (January-February 1977) through Volume 22, Number 6 (November-December 1981). The index is divided into three section: a chronological list of articles (including abstracts), a permuted-title (KWIC) index, and an author index. Nuclear Safety, a bimonthly technical progress review prepared by the Nuclear Safety Information Center, covers all safety aspects of nuclear power reactors and associated facilities. Over 300 technical articles published in Nuclear Safety in the last 5 years are listed in this index.

  19. Measurement of nonlinear index by a relay-imaged top-hat Z-scan technique

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shimada, T.; Kurnit, N.A.; Sheik-Bahae, M.

    1996-04-01

    Measurements of the nonlinear index of a number of optical materials of interest for the National Ignition Facility have been performed at 1,064 nm and 355 nm by a modified version of the ``top-hat`` technique and the results compared with the more standard gaussian-beam Z-scan technique. The top-hat technique has the advantages of higher sensitivity and smaller uncertainties introduced by beam-quality considerations. The authors have made what they feel to be an additional improvement by placing the defining aperture for the top hat at the front focal plane of the lens that focuses the beam into the sample and then reimaging the input aperture with a second lens onto a ccd camera. Reimaging eliminates diffraction fringes and provides a stationary image even for a wedged sample; recording the entire image permits minimization of spurious effects such as varying interference fringes.

  20. ON THE ELECTRON ENERGY DISTRIBUTION INDEX OF SWIFT GAMMA-RAY BURST AFTERGLOWS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curran, P. A.; De Pasquale, M.; Page, M. J.; Evans, P. A.; Van der Horst, A. J.

    2010-06-20

    The electron energy distribution index, p, is a fundamental parameter of the synchrotron emission from a range of astronomical sources. Here we examine one such source of synchrotron emission, gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows observed by the Swift satellite. Within the framework of the blast wave model, we examine the constraints placed on the distribution of p by the observed X-ray spectral indices and parameterize the distribution. We find that the observed distribution of spectral indices are inconsistent with an underlying distribution of p composed of a single discrete value but consistent with a Gaussian distribution centered at p = 2.36 and having a width of 0.59. Furthermore, accepting that the underlying distribution is a Gaussian, we find that the majority ({approx_gt}94%) of GRB afterglows in our sample have cooling break frequencies less than the X-ray frequency.

  1. Tailoring the index of refraction of nanocrystalline hafnium oxide thin films

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vargas, Mirella [Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, Texas 79968 (United States)] [Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, Texas 79968 (United States); Murphy, N. R. [Materials and Manufacturing Directorate (RX), 3005 Hobson Way, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB), Dayton, Ohio 45433 (United States)] [Materials and Manufacturing Directorate (RX), 3005 Hobson Way, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB), Dayton, Ohio 45433 (United States); Ramana, C. V., E-mail: rvchintalapalle@utep.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, Texas 79968 (United States)

    2014-03-10

    Hafnium oxide (HfO{sub 2}) films were grown by sputter-deposition by varying the growth temperature (T{sub s}?=?25700?C). HfO{sub 2} films grown at T{sub s}?index of refraction (n) profiles derived from spectroscopic ellipsometry analyses follow the Cauchy dispersion relation. Lorentz-Lorenz analysis (n{sub (?)}?=?550?nm) and optical-model adopted agree well with the XRR data/analyses. A direct T{sub s}-?-n relationship suggests that tailoring the optical quality is possible by tuning T{sub s} and the microstructure of HfO{sub 2} films.

  2. A Prognostic Index for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Minor Salivary Gland Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lloyd, Shane; Yu, James B. [Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States); Ross, Douglas A. [Department of Surgery, St. Vincent's Medical Center, Bridgeport, CT (United States); Wilson, Lynn D. [Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States); Decker, Roy H., E-mail: roy.decker@yale.ed [Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States)

    2010-01-15

    Purpose: Large studies examining the clinical and pathological factors associated with nodal metastasis in minor salivary gland cancer are lacking in the literature. Methods and Materials: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, we identified 2,667 minor salivary gland cancers with known lymph node status from 1988 to 2004. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with the use of neck dissection, the use of external beam radiation therapy, and the presence of cervical lymph node metastases. Results: Four hundred twenty-six (16.0%) patients had neck nodal involvement. Factors associated with neck nodal involvement on univariate analysis included increasing age, male sex, increasing tumor size, high tumor grade, T3-T4 stage, adenocarcinoma or mucoepidermoid carcinomas, and pharyngeal site of primary malignancy. On multivariate analysis, four statistically significant factors were identified, including male sex, T3-T4 stage, pharyngeal site of primary malignancy, and high-grade adenocarcinoma or high-grade mucoepidermoid carcinomas. The proportions (and 95% confidence intervals) of patients with lymph node involvement for those with 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 of these prognostic factors were 0.02 (0.01-0.03), 0.09 (0.07-0.11), 0.17 (0.14-0.21), 0.41 (0.33-0.49), and 0.70 (0.54-0.85), respectively. Grade was a significant predictor of metastasis for adenocarcinoma and mucoepidermoid carcinoma but not for adenoid cystic carcinoma. Conclusions: A prognostic index using the four clinicopathological factors listed here can effectively differentiate patients into risk groups of nodal metastasis. The precision of this index is subject to the limitations of SEER data and should be validated in further clinical studies.

  3. Method for indexing and retrieving manufacturing-specific digital imagery based on image content

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ferrell, Regina K.; Karnowski, Thomas P.; Tobin, Jr., Kenneth W.

    2004-06-15

    A method for indexing and retrieving manufacturing-specific digital images based on image content comprises three steps. First, at least one feature vector can be extracted from a manufacturing-specific digital image stored in an image database. In particular, each extracted feature vector corresponds to a particular characteristic of the manufacturing-specific digital image, for instance, a digital image modality and overall characteristic, a substrate/background characteristic, and an anomaly/defect characteristic. Notably, the extracting step includes generating a defect mask using a detection process. Second, using an unsupervised clustering method, each extracted feature vector can be indexed in a hierarchical search tree. Third, a manufacturing-specific digital image associated with a feature vector stored in the hierarchicial search tree can be retrieved, wherein the manufacturing-specific digital image has image content comparably related to the image content of the query image. More particularly, can include two data reductions, the first performed based upon a query vector extracted from a query image. Subsequently, a user can select relevant images resulting from the first data reduction. From the selection, a prototype vector can be calculated, from which a second-level data reduction can be performed. The second-level data reduction can result in a subset of feature vectors comparable to the prototype vector, and further comparable to the query vector. An additional fourth step can include managing the hierarchical search tree by substituting a vector average for several redundant feature vectors encapsulated by nodes in the hierarchical search tree.

  4. Building waste management core indicators through Spatial Material Flow Analysis: Net recovery and transport intensity indexes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Font Vivanco, David; Puig Ventosa, Ignasi; Gabarrell Durany, Xavier

    2012-12-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sustainability and proximity principles have a key role in waste management. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Core indicators are needed in order to quantify and evaluate them. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A systematic, step-by-step approach is developed in this study for their development. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Transport may play a significant role in terms of environmental and economic costs. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Policy action is required in order to advance in the consecution of these principles. - Abstract: In this paper, the material and spatial characterization of the flows within a municipal solid waste (MSW) management system are combined through a Network-Based Spatial Material Flow Analysis. Using this information, two core indicators are developed for the bio-waste fraction, the Net Recovery Index (NRI) and the Transport Intensity Index (TII), which are aimed at assessing progress towards policy-related sustainable MSW management strategies and objectives. The NRI approaches the capacity of a MSW management system for converting waste into resources through a systematic metabolic approach, whereas the TII addresses efficiency in terms of the transport requirements to manage a specific waste flow throughout the entire MSW management life cycle. Therefore, both indicators could be useful in assessing key MSW management policy strategies, such as the consecution of higher recycling levels (sustainability principle) or the minimization of transport by locating treatment facilities closer to generation sources (proximity principle). To apply this methodological approach, the bio-waste management system of the region of Catalonia (Spain) has been chosen as a case study. Results show the adequacy of both indicators for identifying those points within the system with higher capacity to compromise its environmental, economic and social performance and therefore establishing clear targets for policy prioritization. Moreover, this methodological approach permits scenario building, which could be useful in assessing the outcomes of hypothetical scenarios, thus proving its adequacy for strategic planning.

  5. Municipal solid waste management: Identification and analysis of engineering indexes representing demand and costs generated in virtuous Italian communities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gamberini, R. Del Buono, D.; Lolli, F.; Rimini, B.

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: Collection and analysis of real life data in the field of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) generation and costs for management. Study of 92 virtuous Italian communities. Elaboration of trends of engineering indexes useful during design and evaluation of MSWM systems. - Abstract: The definition and utilisation of engineering indexes in the field of Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) is an issue of interest for technicians and scientists, which is widely discussed in literature. Specifically, the availability of consolidated engineering indexes is useful when new waste collection services are designed, along with when their performance is evaluated after a warm-up period. However, most published works in the field of MSWM complete their study with an analysis of isolated case studies. Conversely, decision makers require tools for information collection and exchange in order to trace the trends of these engineering indexes in large experiments. In this paper, common engineering indexes are presented and their values analysed in virtuous Italian communities, with the aim of contributing to the creation of a useful database whose data could be used during experiments, by indicating examples of MSWM demand profiles and the costs required to manage them.

  6. Hawaii Energy Strategy: Program guide. [Contains special sections on analytical energy forecasting, renewable energy resource assessment, demand-side energy management, energy vulnerability assessment, and energy strategy integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-09-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy program, or HES, is a set of seven projects which will produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. It will include a comprehensive energy vulnerability assessment with recommended courses of action to decrease Hawaii's energy vulnerability and to better prepare for an effective response to any energy emergency or supply disruption. The seven projects are designed to increase understanding of Hawaii's energy situation and to produce recommendations to achieve the State energy objectives of: Dependable, efficient, and economical state-wide energy systems capable of supporting the needs of the people, and increased energy self-sufficiency. The seven projects under the Hawaii Energy Strategy program include: Project 1: Develop Analytical Energy Forecasting Model for the State of Hawaii. Project 2: Fossil Energy Review and Analysis. Project 3: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Development Program. Project 4: Demand-Side Management Program. Project 5: Transportation Energy Strategy. Project 6: Energy Vulnerability Assessment Report and Contingency Planning. Project 7: Energy Strategy Integration and Evaluation System.

  7. Implementation and assessment of turbine wake models in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for both mesoscale and large-eddy simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Singer, M; Mirocha, J; Lundquist, J; Cleve, J

    2010-03-03

    Flow dynamics in large wind projects are influenced by the turbines located within. The turbine wakes, regions characterized by lower wind speeds and higher levels of turbulence than the surrounding free stream flow, can extend several rotor diameters downstream, and may meander and widen with increasing distance from the turbine. Turbine wakes can also reduce the power generated by downstream turbines and accelerate fatigue and damage to turbine components. An improved understanding of wake formation and transport within wind parks is essential for maximizing power output and increasing turbine lifespan. Moreover, the influence of wakes from large wind projects on neighboring wind farms, agricultural activities, and local climate are all areas of concern that can likewise be addressed by wake modeling. This work describes the formulation and application of an actuator disk model for studying flow dynamics of both individual turbines and arrays of turbines within wind projects. The actuator disk model is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open-source atmospheric simulation code applicable to a wide range of scales, from mesoscale to large-eddy simulation. Preliminary results demonstrate the applicability of the actuator disk model within WRF to a moderately high-resolution large-eddy simulation study of a small array of turbines.

  8. A NEW SYNTHETIC LIBRARY OF THE NEAR-INFRARED Ca II TRIPLET INDICES. I. INDEX DEFINITION, CALIBRATION, AND RELATIONS WITH STELLAR ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Du, W.; Luo, A. L.; Zhao, Y. H. E-mail: lal@nao.cas.cn

    2012-02-15

    Adopting the SPECTRUM package, which is a stellar spectral synthesis program, we have synthesized a comprehensive set of 2890 near-infrared (NIR) synthetic spectra with a resolution and wavelength sampling similar to the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the forthcoming Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) spectra. During the synthesis, we applied the 'New grids of ATLAS9 Model Atmosphere' to develop a grid of local thermodynamic equilibrium model atmospheres for effective temperatures (T{sub eff}) ranging from 3500 to 7500 K, for surface gravities (log g) from 0.5 to 5.0 dex, for metallicities ([Fe/H]) from -4.0 to 0.5 dex, and for solar ([{alpha}/Fe] = 0.0 dex) and non-solar ([{alpha}/Fe] = +0.4 dex) abundances. This synthetic stellar library is composed of 1350 solar scaled abundance (SSA) and 1530 non-solar scaled abundance (NSSA) spectra, grounding on which we have defined a new set of NIR Ca II triplet indices and an index CaT as the sum of the three. These defined indices were automatically measured on every spectrum of the synthetic stellar library and calibrated with the indices computed on the observational spectra from the INDO-U.S. stellar library. In order to check the effect of {alpha}-element enhancement on the so-defined Ca II indices, we compared indices measured on the SSA spectra with those on the NSSA ones at the same trine of stellar parameters (T{sub eff}, log g, [Fe/H]); luckily, little influences of {alpha}-element enhancement were found. Furthermore, comparisons of our synthetic indices with the observational ones from measurements on the INDO-U.S. stellar library, the SDSS-DR7 and SDSS-DR8 spectroscopic survey are presented, respectively, for dwarfs and giants in specific. For dwarfs, our synthetic indices could well reproduce the behaviors of the observational indices versus stellar parameters, which verifies the validity of our index definitions for dwarfs. For giants, the consistency between our synthetic indices and the observational ones does not appear to be as good. However, a new synthetic library of NIR Ca II indices has been founded for deeper studies on the NIR wave band of stellar spectra, and this library is particularly appropriate for the SDSS and the forthcoming LAMOST stellar spectra. We have regressed the strength of the CaT index as a function of stellar parameters for both dwarfs and giants after a series of experimental investigations into relations of the indices with stellar parameters. For dwarfs, log g has little effect on the indices, while [Fe/H] and T{sub eff} play a role together. The leading factor is probably [Fe/H], which changes the strength of the indices by a positive trend. For giants, log g starts to influence the strength of the indices by a negative trend for the metal-poor, and even impact deeply for the metal-rich; besides, [Fe/H] and T{sub eff} still matter. In addition, we briefly discussed the major differences between our Ca II triplet indices and the CaHK doublet indices. Ultimately, a supplemental experiment was carried out to show that spectral noises do have effects on our set of NIR Ca II indices. However, the influence is not weak enough to be ignored if the signal-to-noise ratio falls below 20.

  9. Note: Matching index technique for avoiding higher order mode resonance in accelerators: INDUS-2 accelerator as a case study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jain, V.; Joshi, S. C.; Bhandarkar, U. V.; Krishnagopal, S.; Centre for Excellence in Basic Sciences, Mumbai 400098

    2013-08-15

    Resonance between circulating beam frequencies and RF cavity Higher Order Modes (HOMs) of accelerators can lead to coupled-bunch instabilities. Shifting these HOMs to avoid the resonance is a topic of active interest. A study has been carried out for the accelerating cavities of the INDUS-2. For quantitative measure of deciding which modes have to be moved and by how much, we introduce a new index called the matching index (I{sub M}), as a measure of how close a HOM is to the nearest beam mode. Depending on the value of I{sub M}, the operating scenarios are classified as safe and unsafe.

  10. Rooftop Unit Comparison Calculator User Manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, James D.

    2015-04-30

    This document serves as a user manual for the Packaged rooftop air conditioners and heat pump units comparison calculator (RTUCC) and is an aggregation of the calculator’s website documentation. Content ranges from new-user guide material like the “Quick Start” to the more technical/algorithmic descriptions of the “Methods Pages.” There is also a section listing all the context-help topics that support the features on the “Controls” page. The appendix has a discussion of the EnergyPlus runs that supported the development of the building-response models.

  11. Probing non-standard gravity with the growth index: a background independent analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steigerwald, Heinrich; Marinoni, Christian; Bel, Julien E-mail: jbel@cpt.univ-mrs.fr

    2014-05-01

    Measurements of the growth index of linear matter density fluctuations ?(z) provide a clue as to whether Einstein's field equations encompass gravity also on large cosmic scales, those where the expansion of the universe accelerates. We show that the information encoded in this function can be satisfactorily parameterized using a small set of coefficients ?{sub i}, in such a way that the true scaling of the growth index is recovered to better than 1% in most dark energy and dark gravity models. We find that the likelihood of current data, given this formalism and the ? Cold Dark Matter (?CDM) expansion model of Planck, is maximal for ?{sub 0} = 0.74{sup +0.44}{sub ?0.41} and ?{sub 1} = 0.01{sup +0.46}{sub ?0.46}, a measurement compatible with the ?CDM predictions (?{sub 0} = 0.545, ?{sub 1} = ?0.007). In addition, data tend to favor models predicting slightly less growth of structures than the Planck ?CDM scenario. The main aim of the paper is to provide a prescription for routinely calculating, in an analytic way, the amplitude of the growth indices ?{sub i} in relevant cosmological scenarios, and to show that these parameters naturally define a space where predictions of alternative theories of gravity can be compared against growth data in a manner which is independent from the expansion history of the cosmological background. As the standard ?-plane provides a tool to identify different expansion histories H(t) and their relation to various cosmological models, the ?-plane can thus be used to locate different growth rate histories f(t) and their relation to alternatives model of gravity. As a result, we find that the Dvali-Gabadadze-Porrati gravity model is rejected with a 95% confidence level. By simulating future data sets, such as those that a Euclid-like mission will provide, we also show how to tell apart ?CDM predictions from those of more extreme possibilities, such as smooth dark energy models, clustering quintessence or parameterized post-Friedmann cosmological models.

  12. Theoretical and experimental investigations of asymmetric light transport in graded index photonic crystal waveguides

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Giden, I. H. Yilmaz, D.; Turduev, M.; Kurt, H.; olak, E.; Ozbay, E.

    2014-01-20

    To provide asymmetric propagation of light, we propose a graded index photonic crystal (GRIN PC) based waveguide configuration that is formed by introducing line and point defects as well as intentional perturbations inside the structure. The designed system utilizes isotropic materials and is purely reciprocal, linear, and time-independent, since neither magneto-optical materials are used nor time-reversal symmetry is broken. The numerical results show that the proposed scheme based on the spatial-inversion symmetry breaking has different forward (with a peak value of 49.8%) and backward transmissions (4.11% at most) as well as relatively small round-trip transmission (at most 7.11%) in a large operational bandwidth of 52.6?nm. The signal contrast ratio of the designed configuration is above 0.80 in the telecom wavelengths of 1523.51576.1?nm. An experimental measurement is also conducted in the microwave regime: A strong asymmetric propagation characteristic is observed within the frequency interval of 12.8 GHz13.3?GHz. The numerical and experimental results confirm the asymmetric transmission behavior of the proposed GRIN PC waveguide.

  13. Estimation of stochastic volatility with long memory for index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Kho Chia; Kane, Ibrahim Lawal; Rahman, Haliza Abd; Bahar, Arifah; Ting, Chee-Ming

    2015-02-03

    In recent years, modeling in long memory properties or fractionally integrated processes in stochastic volatility has been applied in the financial time series. A time series with structural breaks can generate a strong persistence in the autocorrelation function, which is an observed behaviour of a long memory process. This paper considers the structural break of data in order to determine true long memory time series data. Unlike usual short memory models for log volatility, the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is neither a Markovian process nor can it be easily transformed into a Markovian process. This makes the likelihood evaluation and parameter estimation for the long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV) model challenging tasks. The drift and volatility parameters of the fractional Ornstein-Unlenbeck model are estimated separately using the least square estimator (lse) and quadratic generalized variations (qgv) method respectively. Finally, the empirical distribution of unobserved volatility is estimated using the particle filtering with sequential important sampling-resampling (SIR) method. The mean square error (MSE) between the estimated and empirical volatility indicates that the performance of the model towards the index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI is fairly well.

  14. Estimated Uncertainties in the Idaho National Laboratory Matched-Index-of-Refraction Lower Plenum Experiment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Donald M. McEligot; Hugh M. McIlroy, Jr.; Ryan C. Johnson

    2007-11-01

    The purpose of the fluid dynamics experiments in the MIR (Matched-Index-of-Refraction) flow system at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is to develop benchmark databases for the assessment of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solutions of the momentum equations, scalar mixing, and turbulence models for typical Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) plenum geometries in the limiting case of negligible buoyancy and constant fluid properties. The experiments use optical techniques, primarily particle image velocimetry (PIV) in the INL MIR flow system. The benefit of the MIR technique is that it permits optical measurements to determine flow characteristics in passages and around objects to be obtained without locating a disturbing transducer in the flow field and without distortion of the optical paths. The objective of the present report is to develop understanding of the magnitudes of experimental uncertainties in the results to be obtained in such experiments. Unheated MIR experiments are first steps when the geometry is complicated. One does not want to use a computational technique, which will not even handle constant properties properly. This report addresses the general background, requirements for benchmark databases, estimation of experimental uncertainties in mean velocities and turbulence quantities, the MIR experiment, PIV uncertainties, positioning uncertainties, and other contributing measurement uncertainties.

  15. A study of density modulation index in the inner heliospheric solar wind during solar cycle 23

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bisoi, Susanta Kumar; Janardhan, P.; Ingale, M.; Subramanian, P.; Ananthakrishnan, S.; Tokumaru, M.; Fujiki, K. E-mail: jerry@prl.res.in E-mail: p.subramanian@iiserpune.ac.in E-mail: tokumaru@stelab.nagoya-u.ac.jp

    2014-11-01

    The ratio of the rms electron density fluctuations to the background density in the solar wind (density modulation index, ? {sub N} ? ?N/N) is of vital importance for understanding several problems in heliospheric physics related to solar wind turbulence. In this paper, we have investigated the behavior of ? {sub N} in the inner heliosphere from 0.26 to 0.82 AU. The density fluctuations ?N have been deduced using extensive ground-based observations of interplanetary scintillation at 327 MHz, which probe spatial scales of a few hundred kilometers. The background densities (N) have been derived using near-Earth observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer. Our analysis reveals that 0.001 ? ? {sub N} ? 0.02 and does not vary appreciably with heliocentric distance. We also find that ? {sub N} declines by 8% from 1998 to 2008. We discuss the impact of these findings on problems ranging from our understanding of Forbush decreases to the behavior of the solar wind dynamic pressure over the recent peculiar solar minimum at the end of cycle 23.

  16. Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal): Compilation for first quarter 1996, January--March. Volume 21, Number 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-06-01

    This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors, proceedings of conferences and workshops, grants, and international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility.

  17. Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal): Compilation for second quarter 1997 April--June. Volume 22, Number 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-10-01

    This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility.

  18. Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal). Volume 20, No. 1: First quarterly January--March 1995

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-07-01

    This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility.

  19. Regulatory and technical reports: Abstract index journal. Volume 20, No. 3, Compilation for third quarter 1995, July--September

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-01-01

    This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility.

  20. Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal), Compilation for third quarter 1993, July--September. Volume 18, No. 3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-11-01

    This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors, proceedings of conferences and workshops, grants, and international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility.

  1. Initial growth, refractive index, and crystallinity of thermal and plasma-enhanced atomic layer deposition AlN films

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Van Bui, Hao Wiggers, Frank B.; Gupta, Anubha; Nguyen, Minh D.; Aarnink, Antonius A. I.; Jong, Michel P. de; Kovalgin, Alexey Y.

    2015-01-01

    The authors have studied and compared the initial growth and properties of AlN films deposited on Si(111) by thermal and plasma-enhanced atomic layer deposition (ALD) using trimethylaluminum and either ammonia or a N{sub 2}-H{sub 2} mixture as precursors. In-situ spectroscopic ellipsometry was employed to monitor the growth and measure the refractive index of the films during the deposition. The authors found that an incubation stage only occurred for thermal ALD. The linear growth for plasma-enhanced ALD (PEALD) started instantly from the beginning due to the higher nuclei density provided by the presence of plasma. The authors observed the evolution of the refractive index of AlN during the growth, which showed a rapid increase up to a thickness of about 30?nm followed by a saturation. Below this thickness, higher refractive index values were obtained for AlN films grown by PEALD, whereas above that the refractive index was slightly higher for thermal ALD films. X-ray diffraction characterization showed a wurtzite crystalline structure with a (101{sup }0) preferential orientation obtained for all the layers with a slightly better crystallinity for films grown by PEALD.

  2. Comparison of Fuel Cell Technologies | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Comparison of Fuel Cell Technologies Comparison of Fuel Cell Technologies Each fuel cell technology has advantages and disadvantages. See how fuel cell technologies compare with one another. This comparison chart is also available as a fact sheet. Fuel Cell Type Common Electrolyte Operating Temperature Typical Stack Size Electrical Efficiency (LHV) Applications Advantages Disadvantages Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) Perfluorosulfonic acid <120°C <1 kW-100 kW 60% direct H2;a 40%

  3. 2016-01-09T08:52:50Z http://lxapp3.osti.gov:8080/oai/index.jsp...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    index.jsp Value of the verb argument is not a legal OAIPMH verb, the verb argument is missing, or the verb...

  4. 1999 Commercial Building Characteristics--Building Activity Comparison

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Building Activity Comparison Percentage of Floorspace and Buildings by Principal Building Activity, 1999 Percentage of Floorspace and Buildings by Principal Building Activity,...

  5. 1999 Commercial Building Characteristics--Year Constructed Comparison

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Year Constructed Comparison Percentage of Floorspace and Buildings by Year Constructed, 1999 Percentage of Floorspace and Buildings by Year Constructed, 1999. If having trouble...

  6. Life-Cycle Analysis Results of Geothermal Systems in Comparison...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Systems in Comparison to Other Power Systems A life-cycle energy and greenhouse gas emissions analysis has been conducted with Argonne National Laboratory's GREET model...

  7. Discussion on a Code Comparison Effort for the Geothermal Technologies...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Technologies Program Code comparison presentation by Mark White of PNNL at the 2012 Peer Review meeting on May 10. PDF icon gtp2012peerreviewpnnlwhite.pdf More Documents &...

  8. Comparison of Software Models for Energy Savings from Cool Roofs...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    RSC results reduce cool roofing cost-effectiveness thus mitigating expected economic ... Comparison to previous simulation-based studies, analysis on the force multiplier of RSC ...

  9. Experimental and Statistical Comparison of Engine Response as...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Experimental and Statistical Comparison of Engine Response as a Function of Fuel Chemistry ... Engine Response as a Function of Fuel Chemistry and Properties in CI and HCCI Engines ...

  10. National and Sectoral GHG Mitigation Potential: A Comparison...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and Sectoral GHG Mitigation Potential: A Comparison Across Models Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: National and Sectoral GHG Mitigation Potential: A...

  11. Comparison of Materials for Use in the Precision Grinding of...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    and deterministically fabrication optical surfaces to final or near-final surface finish and figure. In this paper, a comparison of grinding techniques and materials is performed. ...

  12. Comparison of Water-Hydrogen Catalytic Exchange Processes vs...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    at Tritium Focus Group Meeting, April 22-24, 2014, Aiken, SC COMPARISON OF WATER-HYDROGEN CATALYTIC EXCHANGE PROCESSES VERSUS WATER DISTILLATION FOR WATER DETRITIATION A. Busigin,...

  13. A Comparison of Cirrus Cloud Visible Optical Depth Derived from...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Comparison of Cirrus Cloud Visible Optical Depth Derived from Lidar Lo, Chaomei Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Comstock, Jennifer Pacific Northwest National Laboratory...

  14. Comparison of Different Load Road Implementation Strategies on...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Different Load Road Implementation Strategies on Fuel Economy of USPS Step Vans Comparison of Different Load Road Implementation Strategies on Fuel Economy of USPS Step Vans An ...

  15. Distributed Wind Policy Comparison Tool | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    URI: cleanenergysolutions.orgcontentdistributed-wind-policy-comparison-to Language: English Policies: "Deployment Programs,Financial Incentives,Regulations" is not in...

  16. Ch. IV, A hydrogeochemical comparison of the Waunita Hot Springs...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    A hydrogeochemical comparison of the Waunita Hot Springs, Hortense, Castle Rock and Anderson Hot Springs Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library...

  17. A Comparison of Alternating Direction Swept Remap and Intersection...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: A Comparison of Alternating Direction Swept Remap and Intersection Remap in the X-FEM Alegra Code. Abstract not provided. Authors: Mosso, Stewart John ; Kramer, Richard ...

  18. Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ghan, Steven J.

    2009-02-14

    Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is a major anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. However, it is uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and investigated the resulting impact on snowpack and the surface water budget in the western United States. A yearlong simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine an annual budget of soot deposition, followed by two regional climate simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the net solar radiation flux at the surface during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, reduce snow water equivalent amount, and lead to reduced snow accumulation and less spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow covered regions. Our simulations indicate that the change of maximum snow albedo induced by soot on snow contributes to 60% of the net albedo reduction over the central Rockies. Snowpack reduction accounts for the additional 40%.

  19. MATCHED-INDEX-OF-REFRACTION FLOW FACILITY FOR FUNDAMENTAL AND APPLIED RESEARCH

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piyush Sabharwall; Carl Stoots; Donald M. McEligot; Richard Skifton; Hugh McIlroy

    2014-11-01

    Significant challenges face reactor designers with regard to thermal hydraulic design and associated modeling for advanced reactor concepts. Computational thermal hydraulic codes solve only a piece of the core. There is a need for a whole core dynamics system code with local resolution to investigate and understand flow behavior with all the relevant physics and thermo-mechanics. The matched index of refraction (MIR) flow facility at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has a unique capability to contribute to the development of validated computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes through the use of state-of-the-art optical measurement techniques, such as Laser Doppler Velocimetry (LDV) and Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). PIV is a non-intrusive velocity measurement technique that tracks flow by imaging the movement of small tracer particles within a fluid. At the heart of a PIV calculation is the cross correlation algorithm, which is used to estimate the displacement of particles in some small part of the image over the time span between two images. Generally, the displacement is indicated by the location of the largest peak. To quantify these measurements accurately, sophisticated processing algorithms correlate the locations of particles within the image to estimate the velocity (Ref. 1). Prior to use with reactor deign, the CFD codes have to be experimentally validated, which requires rigorous experimental measurements to produce high quality, multi-dimensional flow field data with error quantification methodologies. Computational thermal hydraulic codes solve only a piece of the core. There is a need for a whole core dynamics system code with local resolution to investigate and understand flow behavior with all the relevant physics and thermo-mechanics. Computational techniques with supporting test data may be needed to address the heat transfer from the fuel to the coolant during the transition from turbulent to laminar flow, including the possibility of an early laminarization of the flow (Refs. 2 and 3) (laminarization is caused when the coolant velocity is theoretically in the turbulent regime, but the heat transfer properties are indicative of the coolant velocity being in the laminar regime). Such studies are complicated enough that computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models may not converge to the same conclusion. Thus, experimentally scaled thermal hydraulic data with uncertainties should be developed to support modeling and simulation for verification and validation activities. The fluid/solid index of refraction matching technique allows optical access in and around geometries that would otherwise be impossible while the large test section of the INL system provides better spatial and temporal resolution than comparable facilities. Benchmark data for assessing computational fluid dynamics can be acquired for external flows, internal flows, and coupled internal/external flows for better understanding of physical phenomena of interest. The core objective of this study is to describe MIR and its capabilities, and mention current development areas for uncertainty quantification, mainly the uncertainty surface method and cross-correlation method. Using these methods, it is anticipated to establish a suitable approach to quantify PIV uncertainty for experiments performed in the MIR.

  20. Nuclear facility decommissioning and site remedial actions: A selected bibliography, Vol. 18. Part 2. Indexes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-09-01

    This bibliography contains 3638 citations with abstracts of documents relevant to environmental restoration, nuclear facility decontamination and decommissioning (D&D), uranium mill tailings management, and site remedial actions. This report is the eighteenth in a series of bibliographies prepared annually for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Restoration. Citations to foreign and domestic literature of all types - technical reports, progress reports, journal articles, symposia proceedings, theses, books, patents, legislation, and research project descriptions - have been included in Part 1 of the report. The bibliography contains scientific, technical, financial, and regulatory information that pertains to DOE environmental restoration programs. The citations are separated by topic into 16 sections, including (1) DOE Environmental Restoration Program; (2) DOE D&D Program; (3) Nuclear Facilities Decommissioning; (4) DOE Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Programs; (5) NORM-Contaminated Site Restoration; (6) DOE Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project; (7) Uranium Mill Tailings Management; (8) DOE Site-Wide Remedial Actions; (9) DOE Onsite Remedial Action Projects; (10) Contaminated Site Remedial Actions; (11) DOE Underground Storage Tank Remediation; (12) DOE Technology Development, Demonstration, and Evaluations; (13) Soil Remediation; (14) Groundwater Remediation; (15) Environmental Measurements, Analysis, and Decision-Making; and (16) Environmental Management Issues. Within the 16 sections, the citations are sorted by geographic location. If a geographic location is not specified, the citations are sorted according to the document title. In Part 2 of the report, indexes are provided for author, author affiliation, selected title phrase, selected title word, publication description, geographic location, and keyword.

  1. SU-E-T-460: Comparison of Proton and IMRT Planning for Head and Neck Cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fontenla, S; Zhou, Y; Kowalski, A; Mah, D; Leven, T; Cahlon, O; Lee, N; Hunt, M; Mechalakos, J

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: A retrospective study comparing proton and intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) for head and neck cancer Methods: This study consists of six H and N cancer patients that underwent proton as well as IMRT planning. Patients analyzed had unilateral target volumes, one had prior RT. 3D-conformal proton therapy (3D-CPT) plans with multiple field uniform scanning were generated for delivery on the inclined beam line. IMRT was planned using fixed field sliding window. Final plan evaluations were performed by a radiation oncologist and a physicist. Metrics for comparison included tumor coverage, organ sparing with respect to spinal cord, brainstem, parotids, submandibulars, oral cavity, larynx, brachial plexus, cochleas, normal brain tissue, and skin using relevant indices for these structures. Dose volume histograms were generated as well as a qualitative comparison of isodose distributions between the two modalities. Planning and treatment delivery times were compared. Results: Results showed that IMRT plans offered better conformality in the high dose region as demonstrated by the conformality index for each plan. Ipsilateral cochlea, submandibular gland, and skin doses were lower with IMRT than proton therapy. There was significant sparing of larynx, oral cavity, and brainstem with proton therapy compared to IMRT. This translated into direct patient benefit with no evidence of hoarseness, mucositis, or nausea. Contralateral parotid and submandibular glands were equally spared. IMRT had shorter planning/parts fabrication and treatment times which needs to be taken into account when deciding modality. Conclusion: Sparing of clinically significant normal tissue structures such as oral cavity and larynx for unilateral H and N cancers was seen with 3D-CPT versus IMRT. However, this is at the expense of less conformality at the high dose region and higher skin dose. Future studies are needed with full gantry systems and pencil beam scanning as these deliveries would be expected to further improve conformality and normal tissue sparing.

  2. Insights from Human/Mouse genome comparisons

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennacchio, Len A.

    2003-03-30

    Large-scale public genomic sequencing efforts have provided a wealth of vertebrate sequence data poised to provide insights into mammalian biology. These include deep genomic sequence coverage of human, mouse, rat, zebrafish, and two pufferfish (Fugu rubripes and Tetraodon nigroviridis) (Aparicio et al. 2002; Lander et al. 2001; Venter et al. 2001; Waterston et al. 2002). In addition, a high-priority has been placed on determining the genomic sequence of chimpanzee, dog, cow, frog, and chicken (Boguski 2002). While only recently available, whole genome sequence data have provided the unique opportunity to globally compare complete genome contents. Furthermore, the shared evolutionary ancestry of vertebrate species has allowed the development of comparative genomic approaches to identify ancient conserved sequences with functionality. Accordingly, this review focuses on the initial comparison of available mammalian genomes and describes various insights derived from such analysis.

  3. Comparison of Module Performance Characterization Methods

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KROPOSKI,B.; MARION,W.; KING,DAVID L.; BOYSON,WILLIAM EARL; KRATOCHVIL,JAY A.

    2000-10-03

    The rating and modeling of photovoltaic PW module performance has been of concern to manufacturers and system designers for over 20 years. Both the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) have developed methodologies to predict module and array performance under actual operating conditions. This paper compares the two methods of determining the performance of PV modules, The methods translate module performance to actual or reference conditions using slightly different approaches. The accuracy of both methods is compared for both hourly, daily, and annual energy production over a year of data recorded at NREL in Golden, CO. The comparison of the two methods will be presented for five different PV module technologies.

  4. Inventory of Federal energy-related environment and safety research for FY 1979. Volume II. Project listings and indexes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1980-12-01

    This volume contains summaries of FY 1979 government-sponsored environment and safety research related to energy arranged by log number, which groups the projects by reporting agency. The log number is a unique number assigned to each project from a block of numbers set aside for each contributing agency. Information elements included in the summary listings are project title, principal investigators, research organization, project number, contract number, supporting organization, funding level, related energy sources with numbers indicating percentages of effort devoted to each, and R and D categories. A brief description of each project is given, and this is followed by subject index terms that were assigned for computer searching and for generating the printed subject index in the back of this volume.

  5. A Preliminary Feasibility Assessment of the RESNET HERS Index as an Alternative Compliance Path for the IECC

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Taylor, Zachary T.; Goel, Supriya

    2013-12-02

    This analysis provides a limited evaluation of the relationship between the Residential Energy Services Network (RESNET) Home Energy Rating System (HERS) Index and the simulation-based performance approach used in the 2012 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). Not all differences between the approaches are analyzed here; only a few distinctions considered likely to result in quantifiable differences in the outcomes of the two approaches and for which available studies have not quantified those differences. This analysis establishes, for a single-family residence with gas heat and a crawlspace foundation, a set of climate-zone-specific, complying HERS Index values that could be used to inform the development of a HERS-based compliance path in the IECC.

  6. Compression of picosecond pulses from a solid-state laser using self-phase modulation in graded-index fibers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Damm, T.; Kaschke, M.; Noack, F.; Wilhelmi, B.

    1985-04-01

    We report the compression by a factor of 7 of 2-..mu..J pulses of 5-psec duration from a mode-locked Nd:phosphate glass laser. The pulses were chirped and their spectrum broadened while traveling through a graded-index core fiber. After amplification to 500 ..mu..J, they were finally compressed by traveling through a dispersive delay line, and 0.7-psec pulse widths were achieved.

  7. Fallout forecasting: 1945-1962

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kennedy, W.R. Jr.

    1986-03-01

    The delayed hazards of fallout from the detonations of nuclear devices in the atmosphere have always been the concern of those involved in the Test Program. Even before the Trinity Shot (TR-2) of July 16, 1945, many very competent, intelligent scientists and others from all fields of expertise tried their hand at the prediction problems. This resume and collection of parts from reports, memoranda, references, etc., endeavor to chronologically outline prediction methods used operationally in the field during Test Operations of nuclear devices fired into the atmosphere.

  8. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    to plan for future outbreaks. The LANL team was able to successfully monitor influenza in the United States, dengue fever in Brazil and Thailand, and tuberculosis in China...

  9. Stellar Astrophysics Requirements NERSC Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    (Copernicus Center, Warsaw). Computing cycles: DOE NERSC. 14 May 26, 2011 FLASHWDM Parallel Performance strong peak weak 15 May 26, 2011 Example 2: Core-Collapse SN...

  10. Digital processing of SEM images for the assessment of evaluation indexes of cleaning interventions on Pentelic marble surfaces

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Moropoulou, A. Delegou, E.T.; Vlahakis, V.; Karaviti, E.

    2007-11-15

    In this work, digital processing of scanning-electron-microscopy images utilized to assess cleaning interventions applied on the Pentelic marble surfaces of the National Archaeological Museum and National Library in Athens, Greece. Beside mineralogical and chemical characterization that took place by scanning-electron-microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy, the image-analysis program EDGE was applied for estimating three evaluation indexes of the marble micro-structure. The EDGE program was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for the evaluation of cleaning interventions applied on Philadelphia City Hall. This computer program analyzes scanning-electron-microscopy images of stone specimens cut in cross-section for measuring the fractal dimension of the exposed surfaces, the stone near-surface fracture density, the shape factor (a surface roughness factor) and the friability index which represents the physico-chemical and physico-mechanical stability of the stone surface. The results indicated that the evaluation of the marble surface micro-structure before and after cleaning is achieved by the suggested indexes, while the performance of cleaning interventions on the marble surfaces can be assessed.

  11. Distributed Wind Policy Comparison Tool Guidebook

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-11-01

    Power through Policy: 'Best Practices' for Cost-Effective Distributed Wind is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-funded project to identify distributed wind technology policy best practices and to help policymakers, utilities, advocates, and consumers examine their effectiveness using a pro forma model. Incorporating a customized feed from the Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency (DSIRE), the Web-based Distributed Wind Policy Comparison Tool (Policy Tool) is designed to assist state, local, and utility officials in understanding the financial impacts of different policy options to help reduce the cost of distributed wind technologies. The Policy Tool can be used to evaluate the ways that a variety of federal and state policies and incentives impact the economics of distributed wind (and subsequently its expected market growth). It also allows policymakers to determine the impact of policy options, addressing market challenges identified in the U.S. DOE's '20% Wind Energy by 2030' report and helping to meet COE targets.

  12. Comparison of Home Retrofit Programs in Wisconsin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cunningham, Kerrie; Hannigan, Eileen

    2013-03-01

    To explore ways to reduce customer barriers and increase home retrofit completions, several different existing home retrofit models have been implemented in the state of Wisconsin. This study compared these programs' performance in terms of savings per home and program cost per home to assess the relative cost-effectiveness of each program design. However, given the many variations in these different programs, it is difficult to establish a fair comparison based on only a small number of metrics. Therefore, the overall purpose of the study is to document these programs' performance in a case study approach to look at general patterns of these metrics and other variables within the context of each program. This information can be used by energy efficiency program administrators and implementers to inform home retrofit program design. Six different program designs offered in Wisconsin for single-family energy efficiency improvements were included in the study. For each program, the research team provided information about the programs' approach and goals, characteristics, achievements and performance. The program models were then compared with performance results-program cost and energy savings-to help understand the overall strengths and weaknesses or challenges of each model.

  13. Comparison of Home Retrofit Programs in Wisconsin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cunningham, K.; Hannigan, E.

    2013-03-01

    To explore ways to reduce customer barriers and increase home retrofit completions, several different existing home retrofit models have been implemented in the state of Wisconsin. This study compared these programs' performance in terms of savings per home and program cost per home to assess the relative cost-effectiveness of each program design. However, given the many variations in these different programs, it is difficult to establish a fair comparison based on only a small number of metrics. Therefore, the overall purpose of the study is to document these programs' performance in a case study approach to look at general patterns of these metrics and other variables within the context of each program. This information can be used by energy efficiency program administrators and implementers to inform home retrofit program design. Six different program designs offered in Wisconsin for single-family energy efficiency improvements were included in the study. For each program, the research team provided information about the programs' approach and goals, characteristics, achievements and performance. The program models were then compared with performance results -- program cost and energy savings -- to help understand the overall strengths and weaknesses or challenges of each model.

  14. Method and apparatus for biological sequence comparison

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Marr, Thomas G. (Huntington, NY); Chang, William I-Wei (Huntington, NY)

    1997-01-01

    A method and apparatus for comparing biological sequences from a known source of sequences, with a subject (query) sequence. The apparatus takes as input a set of target similarity levels (such as evolutionary distances in units of PAM), and finds all fragments of known sequences that are similar to the subject sequence at each target similarity level, and are long enough to be statistically significant. The invention device filters out fragments from the known sequences that are too short, or have a lower average similarity to the subject sequence than is required by each target similarity level. The subject sequence is then compared only to the remaining known sequences to find the best matches. The filtering member divides the subject sequence into overlapping blocks, each block being sufficiently large to contain a minimum-length alignment from a known sequence. For each block, the filter member compares the block with every possible short fragment in the known sequences and determines a best match for each comparison. The determined set of short fragment best matches for the block provide an upper threshold on alignment values. Regions of a certain length from the known sequences that have a mean alignment value upper threshold greater than a target unit score are concatenated to form a union. The current block is compared to the union and provides an indication of best local alignment with the subject sequence.

  15. Comparison between electroglottography and electromagnetic glottography

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Titze, Ingo R.; Story, Brad H.; Burnett, Gregory C.; Holzrichter, John F.; Ng, Lawrence C.; Lea, Wayne A.

    2000-01-01

    Newly developed glottographic sensors, utilizing high-frequency propagating electromagnetic waves, were compared to a well-established electroglottographic device. The comparison was made on four male subjects under different phonation conditions, including three levels of vocal fold adduction (normal, breathy, and pressed), three different registers (falsetto, chest, and fry), and two different pitches. Agreement between the sensors was always found for the glottal closure event, but for the general wave shape the agreement was better for falsetto and breathy voice than for pressed voice and vocal fry. Differences are attributed to the field patterns of the devices. Whereas the electroglottographic device can operate only in a conduction mode, the electromagnetic device can operate in either the forward scattering (diffraction) mode or in the backward scattering (reflection) mode. Results of our tests favor the diffraction mode because a more favorable angle imposed on receiving the scattered (reflected) signal did not improve the signal strength. Several observations are made on the uses of the electromagnetic sensors for operation without skin contact and possibly in an array configuration for improved spatial resolution within the glottis. (c) 2000 Acoustical Society of America.

  16. Method and apparatus for biological sequence comparison

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Marr, T.G.; Chang, W.I.

    1997-12-23

    A method and apparatus are disclosed for comparing biological sequences from a known source of sequences, with a subject (query) sequence. The apparatus takes as input a set of target similarity levels (such as evolutionary distances in units of PAM), and finds all fragments of known sequences that are similar to the subject sequence at each target similarity level, and are long enough to be statistically significant. The invention device filters out fragments from the known sequences that are too short, or have a lower average similarity to the subject sequence than is required by each target similarity level. The subject sequence is then compared only to the remaining known sequences to find the best matches. The filtering member divides the subject sequence into overlapping blocks, each block being sufficiently large to contain a minimum-length alignment from a known sequence. For each block, the filter member compares the block with every possible short fragment in the known sequences and determines a best match for each comparison. The determined set of short fragment best matches for the block provide an upper threshold on alignment values. Regions of a certain length from the known sequences that have a mean alignment value upper threshold greater than a target unit score are concatenated to form a union. The current block is compared to the union and provides an indication of best local alignment with the subject sequence. 5 figs.

  17. A Comparison of Simulation Capabilities for Ducts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, William A.; Smith, Matt K.; Gu, Lixing; New, Joshua Ryan

    2014-11-01

    Typically, the cheapest way to install a central air conditioning system in residential buildings is to place the ductwork in the attic. Energy losses due to duct-attic interactions can be great, but current whole-house models are unable to capture the dynamic multi-mode physics of the interactions. The building industry is notoriously fragmented and unable to devote adequate research resources to solve this problem. Builders are going to continue to put ducts in the attic because floor space is too expensive to closet them within living space, and there are both construction and aesthetic issues with other approaches such as dropped ceilings. Thus, there is a substantial need to publicly document duct losses and the cost of energy used by ducts in attics so that practitioners, builders, homeowners and state and federal code officials can make informed decisions leading to changes in new construction and additional retrofit actions. Thus, the goal of this study is to conduct a comparison of AtticSim and EnergyPlus simulation algorithms to identify specific features for potential inclusion in EnergyPlus that would allow higher-fidelity modeling of HVAC operation and duct transport of conditioned air. It is anticipated that the resulting analysis from these simulation tools will inform energy decisions relating to the role of ducts in future building energy codes and standards.

  18. Steady state estimation of soil organic carbon using satellite-derived canopy leaf area index

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Fang, Yilin; Liu, Chongxuan; Huang, Maoyi; Li, Hongyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2014-12-02

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a key role in the global carbon cycle that is important for decadal-to-century climate prediction. Estimation of soil organic carbon stock using model-based methods typically requires spin-up (time marching transient simulation) of the carbon-nitrogen (CN) models by performing hundreds to thousands years long simulations until the carbon-nitrogen pools reach dynamic steady-state. This has become a bottleneck for global modeling and analysis, especially when testing new physical and/or chemical mechanisms and evaluating parameter sensitivity. Here we report a new numerical approach to estimate global soil carbon stock that can avoid the long term spin-up of themore » CN model. The approach uses canopy leaf area index (LAI) from satellite data and takes advantage of a reaction-based biogeochemical module NGBGC (Next Generation BioGeoChemical Module) that was recently developed and incorporated in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Although NGBGC uses the same CN mechanisms as used in CLM4CN, it can be easily configured to run prognostic or steady state simulations. In this approach, monthly LAI from the multi-year Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data was used to calculate potential annual average gross primary production (GPP) and leaf carbon for the period of the atmospheric forcing. The calculated potential annual average GPP and leaf C are then used by NGBGC to calculate the steady-state distributions of carbon and nitrogen in different vegetation and soil pools by solving the steady-state reaction-network in NGBGC using the Newton-Raphson method. The new approach was applied at point and global scales and compared with SOC derived from long spin-up by running NGBGC in prognostic mode, and SOC from the empirical data of the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD). The steady-state solution is comparable to the spin-up value when the MODIS LAI is close to the LAI from the spin-up solution, and largely captured the variability of the HWSD SOC across the different dominant plant functional types (PFTs) at global scale. The numerical correlation between the calculated and HWSD SOC was, however, weak at both point and global scales, suggesting that the models used in describing biogeochemical processes in CLM needs improvements and/or HWSD needs updating as suggested by other studies. Besides SOC, the steady state solution also includes all other state variables simulated by a spin-up run, such as NPP, GPP, total vegetation C etc., which makes the developed approach a promising tool to efficiently estimate global SOC distribution and evaluate and compare different aspects simulated by different CN mechanisms in the model.« less

  19. Steady state estimation of soil organic carbon using satellite-derived canopy leaf area index

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fang, Yilin; Liu, Chongxuan; Huang, Maoyi; Li, Hongyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2014-12-02

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a key role in the global carbon cycle that is important for decadal-to-century climate prediction. Estimation of soil organic carbon stock using model-based methods typically requires spin-up (time marching transient simulation) of the carbon-nitrogen (CN) models by performing hundreds to thousands years long simulations until the carbon-nitrogen pools reach dynamic steady-state. This has become a bottleneck for global modeling and analysis, especially when testing new physical and/or chemical mechanisms and evaluating parameter sensitivity. Here we report a new numerical approach to estimate global soil carbon stock that can avoid the long term spin-up of the CN model. The approach uses canopy leaf area index (LAI) from satellite data and takes advantage of a reaction-based biogeochemical module NGBGC (Next Generation BioGeoChemical Module) that was recently developed and incorporated in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Although NGBGC uses the same CN mechanisms as used in CLM4CN, it can be easily configured to run prognostic or steady state simulations. In this approach, monthly LAI from the multi-year Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data was used to calculate potential annual average gross primary production (GPP) and leaf carbon for the period of the atmospheric forcing. The calculated potential annual average GPP and leaf C are then used by NGBGC to calculate the steady-state distributions of carbon and nitrogen in different vegetation and soil pools by solving the steady-state reaction-network in NGBGC using the Newton-Raphson method. The new approach was applied at point and global scales and compared with SOC derived from long spin-up by running NGBGC in prognostic mode, and SOC from the empirical data of the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD). The steady-state solution is comparable to the spin-up value when the MODIS LAI is close to the LAI from the spin-up solution, and largely captured the variability of the HWSD SOC across the different dominant plant functional types (PFTs) at global scale. The numerical correlation between the calculated and HWSD SOC was, however, weak at both point and global scales, suggesting that the models used in describing biogeochemical processes in CLM needs improvements and/or HWSD needs updating as suggested by other studies. Besides SOC, the steady state solution also includes all other state variables simulated by a spin-up run, such as NPP, GPP, total vegetation C etc., which makes the developed approach a promising tool to efficiently estimate global SOC distribution and evaluate and compare different aspects simulated by different CN mechanisms in the model.

  20. Intensity modulated radiotherapy and 3D conformal radiotherapy for whole breast irradiation: a comparative dosimetric study and introduction of a novel qualitative index for plan evaluation, the normal tissue index

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yim, Jackie; Suttie, Clare; Bromley, Regina; Morgia, Marita; Lamoury, Gillian

    2015-09-15

    We report on a retrospective dosimetric study, comparing 3D conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) and hybrid intensity modulated radiotherapy (hIMRT). We evaluated plans based on their planning target volume coverage, dose homogeneity, dose to organs at risk (OARs) and exposure of normal tissue to radiation. The Homogeneity Index (HI) was used to assess the dose homogeneity in the target region, and we describe a new index, the normal tissue index (NTI), to assess the dose in the normal tissue inside the tangent treatment portal. Plans were generated for 25 early-stage breast cancer patients, using a hIMRT technique. These were compared with the 3DCRT plans of the treatment previously received by the patients. Plan quality was evaluated using the HI, NTI and dose to OARs. The hIMRT technique was significantly more homogenous than the 3DCRT technique, while maintaining target coverage. The hIMRT technique was also superior at minimising the amount of tissue receiving D{sub 105%} and above (P < 0.0001). The ipsilateral lung and contralateral breast maximum were significantly lower in the hIMRT plans (P < 0.05 and P < 0.005), but the 3DCRT technique achieved a lower mean heart dose in left-sided breast cancer patients (P < 0.05). Hybrid intensity modulated radiotherapy plans achieved improved dose homogeneity compared to the 3DCRT plans and superior outcome with regard to dose to normal tissues. We propose that the addition of both HI and NTI in evaluating the quality of intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) breast plans provides clinically relevant comparators which more accurately reflect the new paradigm of treatment goals and outcomes in the era of breast IMRT.