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Sample records for forecast comparisons index

  1. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  2. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  3. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  4. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  5. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  6. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below

  7. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO

  8. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we

  9. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  10. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-09-22

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the 'Microbase' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  11. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the “Mergedsounding” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  12. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and

  13. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and

  14. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  15. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  16. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  17. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-09-19

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the “Microbase” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  18. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  19. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 -0.9% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $424 3.9% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,992 2,082 4.5% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.37 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $371 $382 3.0% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,371 2,497 5.3% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  20. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  1. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  2. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  3. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  4. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  5. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the integration cost of high levels of solar energy into the electricity grid. This will help SunShot to assess current technology and practices in this field and identify the gaps and needs for further research.

  6. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable.

  7. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  8. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  9. Comparison

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Comparison of ion temperature diagnostics on the Madison symmetric torus reversed-field pinch J. C. Reardon, a) D. Craig, D. J. Den Hartog, G. Fiksel, and S. C. Prager Department of Physics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 ͑Presented on 9 July 2002͒ There have been three ion temperature diagnostics operating on the Madison symmetric torus ͑MST͒ for the past two years: ͑i͒ Charge-exchange recombination spectroscopy ͑CHERS͒, which measures the temperature of fully

  10. A New Prognostic Index and Comparison to Three Other Indices for Patients With Brain Metastases: An Analysis of 1,960 Patients in the RTOG Database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sperduto, Paul W. Berkey, Brian M.S.; Gaspar, Laurie E.; Mehta, Minesh; Curran, Walter

    2008-02-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to introduce a new prognostic index for patients with brain metastases and compare it with three published indices. Treatment for brain metastases varies widely. A sound prognostic index is thus important to guide both clinical decision making and outcomes research. Methods and Materials: A new index was developed because of limitations in the three existing indices and new data (Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 9508) are available since the others were developed. All four indices were compared using the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group database of 1,960 patients with brain metastases from five randomized trials. The ability of the four indices to distinguish its separate classes was determined statistically. Advantages and disadvantages of each index are discussed. Results: Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) and the new Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) had the most statistically significant differences between classes (p < 0.001 for all classes). Conclusions: The new index, the GPA, is as prognostic as the RPA and more prognostic than the other indices. The GPA is the least subjective, most quantitative and easiest to use of the four indices. Future clinical trials should compare the GPA with the RPA to prospectively validate these findings.

  11. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

  12. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  13. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  14. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from ...

  15. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  16. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  17. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  18. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  19. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  20. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Soft Costs Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar ...

  1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... will share their expertise with CLASIC and CHAPS forecasters and project leaders as they consult on the forecast that will determine the day's operations plan. -- Storm Prediction ...

  2. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  3. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of ...

  4. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  5. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  6. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  7. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-07-20.xlsx (72.85 KB) More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Assessment Report: OAS-V-15-01

  8. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  9. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  10. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  11. ARM - Heat Index Calculations

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Heat Index Calculations Heat Index is an index that ...

  12. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... day-ahead wind generation forecasts yields an average of 195M savings in annual operating costs. Figure 6 shows how operating cost savings vary with improvements in forecasting. ...

  13. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  14. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  15. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Subcontracting / Subcontracting Forecasts / UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities

  16. Nucleic acid indexing

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Guilfoyle, Richard A.; Guo, Zhen

    1999-01-01

    A restriction site indexing method for selectively amplifying any fragment generated by a Class II restriction enzyme includes adaptors specific to fragment ends containing adaptor indexing sequences complementary to fragment indexing sequences near the termini of fragments generated by Class II enzyme cleavage. A method for combinatorial indexing facilitates amplification of restriction fragments whose sequence is not known.

  17. Nucleic acid indexing

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Guilfoyle, Richard A.; Guo, Zhen

    2001-01-01

    A restriction site indexing method for selectively amplifying any fragment generated by a Class II restriction enzyme includes adaptors specific to fragment ends containing adaptor indexing sequences complementary to fragment indexing sequences near the termini of fragments generated by Class II enzyme cleavage. A method for combinatorial indexing facilitates amplification of restriction fragments whose sequence is not known.

  18. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  19. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  20. Site Index - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Site Index Site Index Calendar Hanford Blog Archive Search Site Feeds Site Index Weather What's New Site Index Email Email Page | Print Print Page | Text Increase Font Size Decrease Font Size About Us About Hanford Cleanup Regulators, Boards, Councils Hanford Advisory Board Hanford Natural Resource Trustee Council Environmental Protection Agency Washington State Department of Ecology Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board Hanford History Hanford Site Wide Programs DOE Human Resources Management

  1. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  2. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications » Market Studies » LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030. With declining costs and improving performance, LED products have been seeing increased adoption for general illumination applications. This is a positive development in terms of energy consumption, as LEDs use significantly

  3. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  4. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  5. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  6. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  7. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  8. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  9. Electronic Document Master Index

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2003-05-15

    This is a web-based records index search engine. Through a simple or advanced search, users can find data sources and records of interest.

  10. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  11. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  12. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  13. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  14. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  15. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  16. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  17. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  18. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  19. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  20. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  1. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  2. Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu Beyond the familiar flu,

  3. Indexes of Consumption and Production

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    and backward-index estimates; that is, the two-way indexed estimate is the weighted average of the estimates obtained by forward and backward indexing, with higher weight...

  4. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  5. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  6. Fiber optic refractive index monitor

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Weiss, Jonathan David

    2002-01-01

    A sensor for measuring the change in refractive index of a liquid uses the lowest critical angle of a normal fiber optic to achieve sensitivity when the index of the liquid is significantly less than the index of the fiber core. Another embodiment uses a liquid filled core to ensure that its index is approximately the same as the liquid being measured.

  7. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  8. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  9. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  10. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  11. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  12. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  13. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  14. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  15. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  16. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  17. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  18. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  19. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  20. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  1. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  2. Project Definition Rating Index Workbook

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) Workbook is a tool that was developed to support DOE G-413.3-12A, U. S. Department of Energy Project Definition Rating Index Guide for Traditional Nuclear...

  3. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  4. Compiler Comparisons

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Comparisons Compiler Comparisons Compiler Comparisons on Hopper There are five compilers available to users on Hopper, the NERSC XE6. All of the compilers on this system are...

  5. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  6. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  7. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  8. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  9. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  10. Applied Parallel Metadata Indexing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobi, Michael R

    2012-08-01

    The GPFS Archive is parallel archive is a parallel archive used by hundreds of users in the Turquoise collaboration network. It houses 4+ petabytes of data in more than 170 million files. Currently, users must navigate the file system to retrieve their data, requiring them to remember file paths and names. A better solution might allow users to tag data with meaningful labels and searach the archive using standard and user-defined metadata, while maintaining security. last summer, I developed the backend to a tool that adheres to these design goals. The backend works by importing GPFS metadata into a MongoDB cluster, which is then indexed on each attribute. This summer, the author implemented security and developed the user interfae for the search tool. To meet security requirements, each database table is associated with a single user, which only stores records that the user may read, and requires a set of credentials to access. The interface to the search tool is implemented using FUSE (Filesystem in USErspace). FUSE is an intermediate layer that intercepts file system calls and allows the developer to redefine how those calls behave. In the case of this tool, FUSE interfaces with MongoDB to issue queries and populate output. A FUSE implementation is desirable because it allows users to interact with the search tool using commands they are already familiar with. These security and interface additions are essential for a usable product.

  11. Auto Indexer for Percussive Hammers

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Auto Indexer for Percussive Hammers April 22-25, 2013 This presentation does not contain any proprietary confidential, or otherwise restricted information. Jiann Su, PI Sandia ...

  12. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  13. index | netl.doe.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Analysis Focus Area slider_Power-Plant_NETL.jpg Analysis Focus Areas Overview NETL's expertise in Fossil Energy allows the energy analysis team to focus on these technological, economical, and environmental areas in the development of baseline studies, life cycle analyses, analytical tools, and quality guidelines. NETL analysts use economic models to forecast the market penetration of advanced energy systems for a variety of possible futures. The associated benefits are quantified in terms of

  14. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  15. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  16. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  17. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and ...

  18. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  19. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  20. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...

  1. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  2. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  3. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  4. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... RIT forecasting is saving costs and improving operational practices for IPC and helping integrate wind power more efficiently and cost effectively. Figure 3 shows how the ...

  5. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Cost Assignment - Only a few respondents partly or fully recover forecasting costs from variable generators. Many simply absorb the costs, possibly viewing them as relatively ...

  6. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... The licensing arrangement helps to facilitate transfer of the statistical learning algorithms developed in the project to industry use. A leading forecast provider in the United ...

  7. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  8. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  9. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  10. Technical analysis in short-term uranium price forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schramm, D.S.

    1990-03-01

    As market participants anticipate the end of the current uranium price decline and its subsequent reversal, increased attention will be focused upon forecasting future price movements. Although uranium is economically similar to other mineral commodities, it is questionable whether methodologies used to forecast price movements of such commodities may be successfully applied to uranium.

  11. Index Ventures | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    capital firm that invests in companies in the fields of information technology and the life sciences. References: Index Ventures1 This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI...

  12. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  13. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  14. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  15. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  16. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  17. Forest Carbon Index | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Forest Carbon Index Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Forest Carbon Index AgencyCompany Organization: Resources for the Future Partner: United Nations...

  18. Energy Development Index (EDI) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Index (EDI) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Development Index (EDI) AgencyCompany Organization: International Energy Agency (IEA) Sector:...

  19. INDEX

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 CLAUSE 6 - COST ACCOUNTING STANDARDS (CAS) LIABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . 9 CLAUSE 7 - DISCLOSURE AND USE...

  20. Index

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    WIPP Baseline Tool - 2004 Home CRA - 2004 Final Recertification Decision CRA Comments & Responses CCA - 1996 CRA CARDs & TSDs CCA CARDs & TSDs Regulatory Tools The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on May 18, 1998, certified the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), located near Carlsbad, New Mexico, as the nations first geologic repository for the disposal of transuranic (TRU) wastes generated by atomic energy defense activities. The EPA next Recertified the WIPP's continuing

  1. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  2. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  3. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  4. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  5. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  6. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler ... M Jensen et al., March 2016, DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting ...

  7. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  8. DOE Publishes New Forecast of Energy Savings from LED Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy has just published the latest edition of its biannual report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, which models the...

  9. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  10. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind ...

  12. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  13. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  14. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  15. Lawrence Berkeley Lab Indexing Toolbox

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2003-09-08

    The Lawrence Berkeley Lab Indexing Toolbox is intended to be used in the context of X-ray crystallography experiments involving biological macromolecules. Macromolecules such as proteins form 3-dimensional periodic arrays (crystal) which in turn lead to lattice-like diffraction patterns when the crystal sample is irradiated with collimated X-rays from a synchrotron or other X-ray source. Once the diffraction pattern is captured on an imaging device the next step is to deduce the periodic nature of themore » crystal sample, along with its internal symmetry. this analysis, known as "indexing" is a well-studied problem. However, there are no other implementations designed to operate in an automated setting, in which the human experimentalist is not prosent to manually verify the results of indexing. In particular LABELIT uses three novel algorithms to facilitate automation: a more robust way to verify the position of the incident X-ray beam on the image, a better way to verify that the deduced lattice is consistent with the observed crystal lattice, and new method to deduce the internal symmetry from measurements of the lattice. Moreover, the algorithms are implemented in a Python framework that permits indexing to fail (in rare cases) without crashing the program, thus allowing the software to be incorporated in robotic systems where unattended operation is expected. It will be especially useful for high throughput operations at snychrotron beamlines.« less

  16. New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering illustrates the full site installation, including a new aerosol observing system (far left) and a precipitation radar (far right, with 20-ft tower). The site is located near the Graciosa Island aiport terminal, hidden by the image inset. | Image courtesy of ARM Climate Research Facility. This artist's

  17. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  18. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  19. Laboratory Equipment Donation Program - Site Index

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Site Index Home About Us FAQ Application Contact Us Administrative Login RSS Widget

  20. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  1. index | netl.doe.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    index Below are links to Carbon Storage Program documents and reference materials. Each of the 10 categories has a variety of documents posted for easy access to current information - just click on the category link to view all related materials. cs-ref-shelf-3.jpg The Carbon Storage Newsletter Subscribe to Newsletter Newsletter Archive Carbon Storage Educational Resources Atlas V - Whole Document (Sept 2015) [PDF] The North American Carbon Storage Atlas 2012 [PDF] Atlas IV - Whole Document (Dec

  2. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  3. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  4. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  5. Compiler Comparisons

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Compiler Comparisons Compiler Comparisons Compiler Comparisons on Hopper There are five compilers available to users on Hopper, the NERSC XE6. All of the compilers on this system are provided by Cray, and they are invoked with wrapper modules that ensure that each compiler links with the proper system and MPI libraries. Each of the compilers have a wide variety of options that control the level of optimization of the exectuable code they produce. We have collected several optimization

  6. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  7. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  8. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  9. index | netl.doe.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Quality Guidelines slider_Fort-Martin_Power-Plant_NETL.jpg Quality Guidelines for Energy Systems Studies OVERVIEW The Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies (QGESS) documents present the methodology employed by NETL in its assessment of energy conversion facility and CO2 transport and storage performance and cost. A clear, transparent methodology is essential for the comparison of different technologies on a consistent basis. These guidelines are intended for use in all NETL studies as

  10. Ardour Global Indexes LLC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Name: Ardour Global Indexes LLC Place: New York City, New York Zip: 10016 Product: New-York based company that manages the Ardour Global Indexes, a set of alternative energy...

  11. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  12. Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts May 11, 2016 - 6:48pm Addthis Balancing the power grid is an art-or at least a scientific study in chaos-and the Energy Department is hoping wind energy can take a greater role in the act. Yet, the intermittency of wind-sometimes it's blowing, sometimes it's not-makes adding it smoothly to the nation's electrical grid a challenge.

  13. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-02-01

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  14. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  15. Index2.doc | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Index2.doc Index2.doc Index2.doc (11.46 KB) More Documents & Publications Sylvania Corporation, Hicksville, NY and Bayside, NY - Addendum to July 8, 2004 O:\HOMEPAGE\FOIA\report99.PDF&#0; U.S. Department of Energy 2004 Annual Report

  16. Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System ...

  17. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  18. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  19. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  20. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information ...

  1. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e

  2. Locking mechanism for indexing device

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lindemeyer, Carl W. (Aurora, IL)

    1984-01-01

    Disclosed is a locking mechanism for an indexing spindle. A conventional r gear having outwardly extending teeth is affixed to the spindle. Also included is a rotatably mounted camshaft whose axis is arranged in skewed relationship with the axis of the spindle. A disk-like wedge having opposing camming surfaces is eccentrically mounted on the camshaft. As the camshaft is rotated, the camming surfaces of the disc-like member are interposed between adjacent gear teeth with a wiping action that wedges the disc-like member between the gear teeth. A zero backlash engagement between disc-like member and gear results, with the engagement having a high mechanical advantage so as to effectively lock the spindle against bidirectional rotation.

  3. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods

  4. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  5. Compiler Comparisons

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Comparisons Compiler Comparisons Using a set of benchmarks described below, different optimization options for the different compilers on Edison are compared. The compilers are also compared against one another on the benchmarks. Benchmarks used Using a set of benchmarks described below, different optimization options for the different compilers on Edison. The compilers are also compared against one another on the benchmarks. NERSC6 Benchmarks We used these benchmarks from the NERSC6

  6. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  7. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  8. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  9. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help

  10. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  11. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  12. Image indexing using color correlograms

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Huang, Jing; Kumar, Shanmugasundaram Ravi; Mitra, Mandar; Zhu, Wei-Jing

    2001-01-01

    A color correlogram is a three-dimensional table indexed by color and distance between pixels which expresses how the spatial correlation of color changes with distance in a stored image. The color correlogram may be used to distinguish an image from other images in a database. To create a color correlogram, the colors in the image are quantized into m color values, c.sub.i . . . c.sub.m. Also, the distance values k.epsilon.[d] to be used in the correlogram are determined where [d] is the set of distances between pixels in the image, and where dmax is the maximum distance measurement between pixels in the image. Each entry (i, j, k) in the table is the probability of finding a pixel of color c.sub.i at a selected distance k from a pixel of color c.sub.i. A color autocorrelogram, which is a restricted version of the color correlogram that considers color pairs of the form (i,i) only, may also be used to identify an image.

  13. Topic Index to the DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Topic Index to the DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules Topic Index to the DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules Topic Index to the DOE Administrative...

  14. A Comparison

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Comparison of Monte-Carlo Simulations and Data from MicroBooNE - Public Note - MICROBOONE-NOTE-1014-PUB The MicroBooNE Collaboration July 5, 2016 Abstract This note presents a first comparison of data and Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation at the MicroBooNE experiment, a surface-level liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) located in the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. Before any analysis can be validated, it is important to ensure understanding of both the

  15. Berkeley Lab Research Review Magazine Index

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Research Review Magazine A-Z Index Search Phone Book Comments Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Public Information Department News Archive Listing by Subject...

  16. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the 'Microbase' value added product (referred to as OBS, within ...

  17. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM Science Metric For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the "Microbase" value added product ...

  18. A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mellit, Adel; Pavan, Alessandro Massi

    2010-05-15

    Forecasting of solar irradiance is in general significant for planning the operations of power plants which convert renewable energies into electricity. In particular, the possibility to predict the solar irradiance (up to 24 h or even more) can became - with reference to the Grid Connected Photovoltaic Plants (GCPV) - fundamental in making power dispatching plans and - with reference to stand alone and hybrid systems - also a useful reference for improving the control algorithms of charge controllers. In this paper, a practical method for solar irradiance forecast using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The proposed Multilayer Perceptron MLP-model makes it possible to forecast the solar irradiance on a base of 24 h using the present values of the mean daily solar irradiance and air temperature. An experimental database of solar irradiance and air temperature data (from July 1st 2008 to May 23rd 2009 and from November 23rd 2009 to January 24th 2010) has been used. The database has been collected in Trieste (latitude 45 40'N, longitude 13 46'E), Italy. In order to check the generalization capability of the MLP-forecaster, a K-fold cross-validation was carried out. The results indicate that the proposed model performs well, while the correlation coefficient is in the range 98-99% for sunny days and 94-96% for cloudy days. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the GCPV plant installed on the rooftop of the municipality of Trieste shows the goodness of the proposed model. (author)

  19. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-10-03

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

  20. Cloudy Sky RRTM Shortwave Radiative Transfer and Comparison to the Revised ECMWF Shortwave Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Cloudy Sky RRTM Shortwave Radiative Transfer and Comparison to the Revised ECMWF Shortwave Model M. J. Iacono, J. S. Delamere, E. J. Mlawer, and S. A. Clough Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Lexington, Massachusetts J.-J. Morcrette European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reading, United Kingdom Introduction An important step toward improving radiative transfer codes in general circulation models (GCMs) is their thorough evaluation by comparison to measurements directly, or

  1. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  2. Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process

  3. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  4. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  5. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.

  6. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapiesmore » is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.« less

  7. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  8. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements.

  9. Method of identifying features in indexed data

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Jarman, Kristin H. [Richland, WA; Daly, Don Simone [Richland, WA; Anderson, Kevin K. [Richland, WA; Wahl, Karen L. [Richland, WA

    2001-06-26

    The present invention is a method of identifying features in indexed data, especially useful for distinguishing signal from noise in data provided as a plurality of ordered pairs. Each of the plurality of ordered pairs has an index and a response. The method has the steps of: (a) providing an index window having a first window end located on a first index and extending across a plurality of indices to a second window end; (b) selecting responses corresponding to the plurality of indices within the index window and computing a measure of dispersion of the responses; and (c) comparing the measure of dispersion to a dispersion critical value. Advantages of the present invention include minimizing signal to noise ratio, signal drift, varying baseline signal and combinations thereof.

  10. Microelectromechanical reciprocating-tooth indexing apparatus

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Allen, James J. (Albuquerque, NM)

    1999-01-01

    An indexing apparatus is disclosed that can be used to rotate a gear or move a rack in a precise, controllable manner. The indexing apparatus, based on a reciprocating shuttle driven by one or more actuators, can be formed either as a micromachine, or as a millimachine. The reciprocating shuttle of the indexing apparatus can be driven by a thermal, electrostatic or electromagnetic actuator, with one or more wedge-shaped drive teeth of the shuttle being moveable to engage and slide against indexing teeth on the gear or rack, thereby moving the gear or rack. The indexing apparatus can be formed by either surface micromachining processes or LIGA processes, depending on the size of the apparatus that is to be formed.

  11. Formation of bulk refractive index structures

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Potter, Jr., Barrett George; Potter, Kelly Simmons; Wheeler, David R.; Jamison, Gregory M.

    2003-07-15

    A method of making a stacked three-dimensional refractive index structure in photosensitive materials using photo-patterning where first determined is the wavelength at which a photosensitive material film exhibits a change in refractive index upon exposure to optical radiation, a portion of the surfaces of the photosensitive material film is optically irradiated, the film is marked to produce a registry mark. Multiple films are produced and aligned using the registry marks to form a stacked three-dimensional refractive index structure.

  12. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  13. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  14. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  15. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  16. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  17. Laboratory Equipment Donation Program - Site Index

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Site Index Home About Us FAQ Application Contact Us Administrative Login RSS Widget U.S. Department of Energy U.S. Deparment of Energy Office of Science Office of Scientific and...

  18. NEPA Guidance and Requirements- Search Index

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The NEPA Guidance and Requirements - Search Index is a one-stop solution providing you with DOE's Guidance and Requirements documents combined into one file for easy download and use.

  19. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  20. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconne...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular ...

  1. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  2. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting behind-the-meter distributed PV generation power production within a region ... This project is expected to reduce the costs of integrating higher penetrations of PV into ...

  3. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    turbines operate closer to maximum capacity, leading to lower energy costs for consumers. ... for the Weather Research and Forecasting model, a widely used weather prediction system. ...

  4. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  5. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    electric system operators, and solar project owners better predict when and how much ... production varies, an accurate solar forecast is needed in order to maintain an ...

  6. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  7. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  8. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  9. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  10. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the systems ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  11. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Finley, Catherine; Nakafuji, Dora; Peterson, Jack L.; Maggio, David; Marquis, Melinda

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

  12. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  13. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; et al

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

  14. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  15. Low Carbon Economy Index 2010 | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Economy Index 2010 Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Low Carbon Economy Index 2010 AgencyCompany Organization: PricewaterhouseCoopers Sector: Energy,...

  16. Master EM Project Definition Rating Index - Facility Disposition...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    ... both approved and pending changes, as appropriate. The forecast of cost at completion is a reasonable projection based on the status of the project and the experience to-date. ...

  17. Master EM Project Definition Rating Index - Traditional (Conventional...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    ... both approved and pending changes, as appropriate. The forecast of cost at completion is a reasonable projection based on the status of the project and the experience to-date. ...

  18. Master EM Project Definition Rating Index - Environmental Restoration...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    ... both approved and pending changes, as appropriate. The forecast of cost at completion is a reasonable projection based on the status of the project and the experience to-date. ...

  19. Plasmonic crystal enhanced refractive index sensing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stein, Benedikt; Devaux, Eloïse; Genet, Cyriaque Ebbesen, Thomas W.

    2014-06-23

    We demonstrate experimentally how the local anisotropy of the dispersion relation of surface plasmon modes propagating over periodic metal gratings can lead to an enhancement of the figure of merit of refractive index sensors. Exploiting the possibility to acquire defocused images of the Fourier space of a highly stable leakage radiation microscope, we report a twofold increase in sensing sensitivity close to the band gap of a one-dimensional plasmonic crystal where the anisotropy of the band structure is the most important. A practical sensing resolution of O(10{sup −6}) refractive index units is demonstrated.

  20. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  1. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  2. Regulatory and technical reports (Abstract Index Journal)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-02-01

    This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors, proceedings of conferences and workshops, grants, and international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility.

  3. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-03-01

    In this paper, we examine the shape of the persistence model error distribution for ten different wind plants in the ERCOT system over multiple timescales. Comparisons are made between the experimental distribution shape and that of the normal distribution.

  4. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  5. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  6. Evolution of the spectral index after inflation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Asgari, A.A.; Abbassi, A.H. E-mail: ahabbasi@modares.ac.ir

    2014-09-01

    In this article we investigate the time evolution of the adiabatic (curvature) and isocurvature (entropy) spectral indices after inflation era for all cosmological scales with two different initial conditions. For this purpose, we first extract an explicit equation for the time evolution of the comoving curvature perturbation (which may be known as the generalized Mukhanov-Sasaki equation). It would be cleared that the evolution of adiabatic spectral index severely depends on the initial conditions moreover, as expected it is constant only for the super-Hubble scales and adiabatic initial conditions. Additionally, the adiabatic spectral index after recombination approaches a constant value for the isocurvature perturbations. Finally, we re-investigate the Sachs-Wolfe effect and show that the fudge factor  1/3 in the adiabatic ordinary Sachs-Wolfe formula must be replaced by 0.4.

  7. Hazard index for underground toxic material

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, C.F.; Cohen, J.J.; McKone, T.E.

    1980-06-01

    To adequately define the problem of waste management, quantitative measures of hazard must be used. This study reviews past work in the area of hazard indices and proposes a geotoxicity hazard index for use in characterizing the hazard of toxic material buried underground. Factors included in this index are: an intrinsic toxicity factor, formulated as the volume of water required for dilution to public drinking-water levels; a persistence factor to characterize the longevity of the material, ranging from unity for stable materials to smaller values for shorter-lived materials; an availability factor that relates the transport potential for the particular material to a reference value for its naturally occurring analog; and a correction factor to accommodate the buildup of decay progeny, resulting in increased toxicity.

  8. Matched Index of Refraction Flow Facility

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Mcllroy, Hugh

    2013-05-28

    What's 27 feet long, 10 feet tall and full of mineral oil (3000 gallons' worth)? If you said INL's Matched Index of Refraction facility, give yourself a gold star. Scientists use computers to model the inner workings of nuclear reactors, and MIR helps validate those models. INL's Hugh McIlroy explains in this video. You can learn more about INL energy research at the lab's facebook site http://www.facebook.com/idahonationallaboratory.

  9. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  10. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  11. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  12. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  13. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  14. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  15. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  16. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Report forecasting the U.S. energy savings of LED white-light sources compared to conventional white-light sources (i.e., incandescent, halogen, fluorescent, and high-intensity discharge) over the...

  17. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  18. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below 3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly ...

  19. Tree_Select_Probes, Build_Hybr_Index, and Build_Hybr_Table

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-08-01

    Tree_Select_Probes: This program is part of a 3 program package that replaces the older probe selection software. The purpose of the package is to generate probes specific for the group of sequences that belong to a given phylogenetic node. This software employs modified proble selection algorithm that improves speed of calculations in comparison with older software. For each node of the input tree, this program selects probes that are positive for all sequences that belongmore » to this node and negative for all that doesn't. For speed it uses probe database created by build_hybr_index program and hybridization table database created by build_hyper_table program. As a result of calculation, the program prints lists for each node from the tree. Input file formats: FASTA for sequences database, internal INDEX for probe database, internal table for hybridization database. Output file format: text file. Build_Hybr_Index: This program is part of a 3 program package that replaces the older probe selection software. The purpose of the package is to generate probles specific for the group of sequences that belong to a given phylogenetic node. This software employs modified probe selection algorithm that improves speed of calculations in comparison with older software. This program creates database of potential probes based on given sequence database, reducing it in the way so it doesn't contain repeats or substrings with meta-nucleotides. Input file format: FASTA. Output file format: itnernal INDEX file. Build_Hybr_Table: This program is part of a 3-program package that replaces the older probe selection software. The purpose of the package is to generate probles specific for the group of sequences that belong to a given phylogenetic node. This software employes modified probe selection algorithm that improves speed of calculations in comparison with older software. For each node of he input tree, this program selects probles that are positive for all sequences that

  20. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  1. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  2. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  3. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  4. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  5. Indexes to Nuclear Regulatory Commission issuances, July--September 1997

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-03-01

    This digest and index lists the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issuances for July to September 1997. Issuances are from the Commission, the Atomic Safety and Licensing Boards, the Administrative Law Judges, the Directors` Decisions, and the Decisions on Petitions for Rulemaking. There are five sections to this index: (1) case name index, (2) headers and digests, (3) legal citations index, (4) subject index, and (5) facility index. The digest provides a brief narrative of the issue, including the resolution of the issue and any legal references used for resolution.

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  7. Compressing bitmap indexes for faster search operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, Kesheng; Otoo, Ekow J.; Shoshani, Arie

    2002-04-25

    In this paper, we study the effects of compression on bitmap indexes. The main operations on the bitmaps during query processing are bitwise logical operations such as AND, OR, NOT, etc. Using the general purpose compression schemes, such as gzip, the logical operations on the compressed bitmaps are much slower than on the uncompressed bitmaps. Specialized compression schemes, like the byte-aligned bitmap code(BBC), are usually faster in performing logical operations than the general purpose schemes, but in many cases they are still orders of magnitude slower than the uncompressed scheme. To make the compressed bitmap indexes operate more efficiently, we designed a CPU-friendly scheme which we refer to as the word-aligned hybrid code (WAH). Tests on both synthetic and real application data show that the new scheme significantly outperforms well-known compression schemes at a modest increase in storage space. Compared to BBC, a scheme well-known for its operational efficiency, WAH performs logical operations about 12 times faster and uses only 60 percent more space. Compared to the uncompressed scheme, in most test cases WAH is faster while still using less space. We further verified with additional tests that the improvement in logical operation speed translates to similar improvement in query processing speed.

  8. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and

  9. Lessons Learned Quarterly Report Cumulative Index | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Guidance & Requirements » Lessons Learned » Lessons Learned Quarterly Report Cumulative Index Lessons Learned Quarterly Report Cumulative Index The LLQR is produced as a means of disseminating NEPA program metrics, along with related guidance, case studies, analysis, references, litigation updates, and resource information. The LLQR Cumulative Index contains topical listings with citations to relevant articles included in past LLQR issues. LLQR_Index_Dec_2012.pdf (347.36 KB) More Documents

  10. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  11. A comparison of light-coupling into high and low index nanostructured photovoltaic thin films

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pfadler, T.; Stärk, M.; Zimmermann, E.; Putnik, M.; Boneberg, J.; Weickert, J. E-mail: lukas.schmidt-mende@uni-konstanz.de; Schmidt-Mende, L. E-mail: lukas.schmidt-mende@uni-konstanz.de

    2015-06-01

    Periodically structured electrodes are typically introduced to thin-film photovoltaics for the purpose of light management. Highly effective light-trapping and optimal in-coupling of light is crucial to enhance the overall device performance in such thin-film systems. Here, wavelength-scale structures are transferred via direct laser interference patterning to electron-selective TiO{sub 2} electrodes. Two representative thin-film solar cell architectures are deposited on top: an organic solar cell featuring blended P3HT:PCBM as active material, and a hybrid solar cell with Sb{sub 2}S{sub 3} as inorganic active material. A direct correlation in the asymmetry in total absorption enhancement and in structure-induced light in-coupling is spectroscopically observed for the two systems. The structuring is shown to be beneficial for the total absorption enhancement if a high n active material is deposited on TiO{sub 2}, but detrimental for a low n material. The refractive indices of the employed materials are determined via spectroscopic ellipsometry. The study outlines that the macroscopic Fresnel equations can be used to investigate the spectroscopically observed asymmetry in light in-coupling at the nanostructured TiO{sub 2} active material interfaces by visualizing the difference in reflectivity caused by the asymmetry in refractive indices.

  12. Structures with negative index of refraction

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Soukoulis, Costas M.; Zhou, Jiangfeng; Koschny, Thomas; Zhang, Lei; Tuttle, Gary

    2011-11-08

    The invention provides simplified negative index materials (NIMs) using wire-pair structures, 4-gap single ring split-ring resonator (SRR), fishnet structures and overleaf capacitor SRR. In the wire-pair arrangement, a pair of short parallel wires and continuous wires are used. In the 4-gap single-ring SRR, the SRRs are centered on the faces of a cubic unit cell combined with a continuous wire type resonator. Combining both elements creates a frequency band where the metamaterial is transparent with simultaneously negative .di-elect cons. and .mu.. In the fishnet structure, a metallic mesh on both sides of the dielectric spacer is used. The overleaf capacitor SRR changes the gap capacities to small plate capacitors by making the sections of the SRR ring overlap at the gaps separated by a thin dielectric film. This technique is applicable to conventional SRR gaps but it best deploys for the 4-gap single-ring structures.

  13. Evaluation of Potential LSST Spatial Indexing Strategies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nikolaev, S; Abdulla, G; Matzke, R

    2006-10-13

    The LSST requirement for producing alerts in near real-time, and the fact that generating an alert depends on knowing the history of light variations for a given sky position, both imply that the clustering information for all detections is available at any time during the survey. Therefore, any data structure describing clustering of detections in LSST needs to be continuously updated, even as new detections are arriving from the pipeline. We call this use case ''incremental clustering'', to reflect this continuous updating of clustering information. This document describes the evaluation results for several potential LSST incremental clustering strategies, using: (1) Neighbors table and zone optimization to store spatial clusters (a.k.a. Jim Grey's, or SDSS algorithm); (2) MySQL built-in R-tree implementation; (3) an external spatial index library which supports a query interface.

  14. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and

  15. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  16. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zulkepli, Jafri Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

    2015-12-11

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

  17. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  18. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  19. Auto Indexer Auto-Indexer for Percussive Hammers: Vane Motor Dynamometer Testing

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Su, Jiann

    The development of the motor will help to achieve program technical objectives by improving well construction capabilities. This includes enabling high-temperature drilling as well as enhancing directional drilling. A key component in the auto indexer is the drive motor. It is an air-driven vane motor that converts the energy stored in the compressed air to mechanical energy. The motor is attached to hammer-like components which impart an impulsive load onto the drive shaft. The impulsive force on the drive shaft in turn creates an indexing action. A controlled test was performed to characterize the performance of the the vane motor for a given pressure. The Sandia dynamometer test station was used to determine the performance of the motor for a given input pressure.

  20. Auto Indexer Auto-Indexer for Percussive Hammers: Vane Motor Dynamometer Testing

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Su, Jiann

    2012-01-01

    The development of the motor will help to achieve program technical objectives by improving well construction capabilities. This includes enabling high-temperature drilling as well as enhancing directional drilling. A key component in the auto indexer is the drive motor. It is an air-driven vane motor that converts the energy stored in the compressed air to mechanical energy. The motor is attached to hammer-like components which impart an impulsive load onto the drive shaft. The impulsive force on the drive shaft in turn creates an indexing action. A controlled test was performed to characterize the performance of the the vane motor for a given pressure. The Sandia dynamometer test station was used to determine the performance of the motor for a given input pressure.

  1. Regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a quasi-operational forecasting environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zupanski, M. )

    1993-08-01

    Four-dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to a regional forecast model as part of the development of a new data assimilation system at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The assimilation employs an operational version of the NMC's new regional forecast model defined in eta vertical coordinates, and data used are operationally produced optimal interpolation (OI) analyses (using the first guess from the NMC's global spectral model), available every 3 h. Humidity and parameterized processes are not included in the adjoint model integration. The calculation of gradients by the adjoint model is approximate since the forecast model is used in its full-physics operational form. All experiments are over a 12-h assimilation period with subsequent 48-h forecast. Three different types of assimilation experiments are performed: (a) adjustment of initial conditions only (standard [open quotes]adjoint[close quotes] approach), (b) adjustment of a correction to the model equations only (variational continuous assimilation), and (c) simultaneous or sequential adjustment of both initial conditions and the correction term. Results indicate significantly better results when the correction term is included in the assimilation. It is shown, for a single case, that the new technique [experiment (c)] is able to produce a forecast better than the current conventional OI assimilation. It is very important to note that these results are obtained with an approximate gradient, calculated from a simplified adjoint model. Thus, it may be possible to perform an operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation of realistic forecast models, even before more complex adjoint models are developed. Also, the results suggest that it may be possible to reduce the large computational cost of assimilation by using only a few iterations of the minimization algorithm. This fast convergence is encouraging from the prospective of operational use. 37 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  2. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models

  3. ARM - Field Campaign - 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaigns915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2011.05.31 - 2012.05.31 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of the installation of a 37 MW solar array on the grounds of Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), a study

  4. ARM - Field Campaign - Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaignsRadar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2013.07.15 - 2015.08.06 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of recent activities funded by the DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) to produce short-term

  5. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  6. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year Rising crude oil prices are likely to be passed on to consumers at the pump, but U.S. drivers are still expected to pay the lowest summer gasoline prices since 2004, and for all of 2016 the average household will spend $900 less on gasoline than it did two years ago." In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average

  7. Auto Indexer for Percussive Hammers | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Auto Indexer for Percussive Hammers Auto Indexer for Percussive Hammers Auto Indexer for Percussive Hammers presentation at the April 2013 peer review meeting held in Denver, Colorado. sandia_percussive_hammers_peer2013.pdf (2.49 MB) More Documents & Publications Technology Development and Field Trials of EGS Drilling Systems track 3: enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) | geothermal 2015 peer review Evaluation of Emerging Technology for Geothermal Drilling and Logging Applications

  8. DOERS Records Schedule Cross Index to DOE Administrative Records

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Disposition Schedules | Department of Energy DOERS Records Schedule Cross Index to DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules DOERS Records Schedule Cross Index to DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules Crosswalk between DOERS and Admin Schedules DOERS Records Schedule Cross Index to DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules (19.97 KB) More Documents & Publications DOE Records Disposition Schedule Changes ADMINISTRATIVE RECORDS SCHEDULE 17: CARTOGRAPHIC, AERIAL

  9. Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Definition Rating Index (PDRI) Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) The Office of Environmental Management (EM) Project Definition Rating Index (EM-PDRI) is a modification of a commercially developed planning tool that has been tested by an EM team specifically for EM's projects. EM-PDRI Team members represent a number of EM sites, and have already used this project planning tool successfully. The EM-PDRI examines a wide range of project factors related to cost, scope, and schedule, and

  10. Title 40 CFR 1508 Terminology and Index | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Regulation: Title 40 CFR 1508 Terminology and IndexLegal Abstract Regulations setting forth terminology under NEPA. Published NA Year Signed or Took Effect 2014 Legal Citation...

  11. Sandia Energy - Results from the Human Resilience Index and Modeling...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Results from the Human Resilience Index and Modeling project were reported recently in the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2030 Report Home Infrastructure Security...

  12. Structures with Negative Refractive Index for Applications in...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    This Return to Search Structures with Negative Refractive Index for Applications in Optics and Nanophotonics Ames Laboratory Contact AMES About This Technology Technology...

  13. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  14. Finite element approximation of the radiative transport equation in a medium with piece-wise constant refractive index

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lehtikangas, O.; Tarvainen, T.; Kim, A.D.; Arridge, S.R.

    2015-02-01

    The radiative transport equation can be used as a light transport model in a medium with scattering particles, such as biological tissues. In the radiative transport equation, the refractive index is assumed to be constant within the medium. However, in biomedical media, changes in the refractive index can occur between different tissue types. In this work, light propagation in a medium with piece-wise constant refractive index is considered. Light propagation in each sub-domain with a constant refractive index is modeled using the radiative transport equation and the equations are coupled using boundary conditions describing Fresnel reflection and refraction phenomena on the interfaces between the sub-domains. The resulting coupled system of radiative transport equations is numerically solved using a finite element method. The approach is tested with simulations. The results show that this coupled system describes light propagation accurately through comparison with the Monte Carlo method. It is also shown that neglecting the internal changes of the refractive index can lead to erroneous boundary measurements of scattered light.

  15. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  16. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  17. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  18. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  19. Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal): Annual compilation for 1994. Volume 19, Number 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-03-01

    This compilation consists of bibliographic data and abstracts for the formal regulatory and technical reports issued by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Staff and its contractors. It is NRC`s intention to publish this compilation quarterly and to cumulate it annually. The main citations and abstracts in this compilation are listed in NUREG number order. These precede the following indexes: secondary report number index, personal author index, subject index, NRC originating organization index (staff reports), NRC originating organization index (international agreements), NRC contract sponsor index (contractor reports), contractor index, international organization index, and licensed facility index. A detailed explanation of the entries precedes each index.

  20. Asset Utilization Index (AUI) Guidance | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Asset Utilization Index (AUI) Guidance Asset Utilization Index (AUI) Guidance AUI Guidance_090227.pdf (40.37 KB) More Documents & Publications Three Year Rolling Timeline The Department&#8217;s real property assets are vital to the accomplishment of its mission Three-year Rolling Timeline

  1. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  2. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are

  3. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

    2010-02-21

    The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to

  4. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  5. Multi-Level Bitmap Indexes for Flash Memory Storage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, Kesheng; Madduri, Kamesh; Canon, Shane

    2010-07-23

    Due to their low access latency, high read speed, and power-efficient operation, flash memory storage devices are rapidly emerging as an attractive alternative to traditional magnetic storage devices. However, tests show that the most efficient indexing methods are not able to take advantage of the flash memory storage devices. In this paper, we present a set of multi-level bitmap indexes that can effectively take advantage of flash storage devices. These indexing methods use coarsely binned indexes to answer queries approximately, and then use finely binned indexes to refine the answers. Our new methods read significantly lower volumes of data at the expense of an increased disk access count, thus taking full advantage of the improved read speed and low access latency of flash devices. To demonstrate the advantage of these new indexes, we measure their performance on a number of storage systems using a standard data warehousing benchmark called the Set Query Benchmark. We observe that multi-level strategies on flash drives are up to 3 times faster than traditional indexing strategies on magnetic disk drives.

  6. Auto Indexer Auto-Indexer for Percussive Hammers: Vane Motor Dynamometer Testing

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Su, Jiann

    2012-01-01

    Objectives Options associated with geothermal drilling operations are generally limited by factors such as formation temperature and rock strength. The objective of the research is to expand the "tool box" available to the geothermal driller by furthering the development of a high-temperature drilling motor that can be used in directional drilling applications for drilling high temperature geothermal formations. The motor is specifically designed to operate in conjunction with a pneumatic down-the-hole-hammer. It provides a more compact design compared to traditional drilling motors such as PDMs (positive displacement motors). The packaging can help to enhance directional drilling capabilities. It uses no elastomeric components, which enables it to operate in higher temperatures ( >250 °F). Current work on the motor has shown that is a capable of operating under pneumatic power with a down-the-hole-hammer. Further development work will include continued testing and refining motor components and evaluating motor capabilities. Targets/Milestones Complete testing current motor - 12/31/2010 Make final material and design decisions - 01/31/2011 Build and test final prototype - 04/31/2011 Final demonstration - 07/31/2011 Impacts The development of the motor will help to achieve program technical objectives by improving well construction capabilities. This includes enabling high-temperature drilling as well as enhancing directional drilling. A key component in the auto indexer is the drive motor. It is an air-driven vane motor that converts the energy stored in the compressed air to mechanical energy. The motor is attached to hammer-like components which impart an impulsive load onto the drive shaft. The impulsive force on the drive shaft in turn creates an indexing action. A controlled test was performed to characterize the performance of the the vane motor for a given pressure. The Sandia dynamometer test station was used to determine the performance of the motor for a

  7. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  8. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  9. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  10. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  11. Title 40 CFR 1508: Terminology and Index | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    1508: Terminology and IndexLegal Published NA Year Signed or Took Effect 2014 Legal Citation Not provided DOI Not Provided Check for DOI availability: http:crossref.org Online...

  12. Rock index properties for geoengineering in underground development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    O'Rourke, J.E.

    1989-02-01

    This paper describes the use of index testing to obtain rock properties that are useful in the design and construction planning of an underground development for civil engineering or mining projects. The index properties discussed include: point load; Schmidt hammer hardness; abrasion hardness; and total hardness. The first two index properties correlate to uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) and Young's modulus. Discussions are given on empirical, normalized relationships of UCS to rock mass properties and the integrated use with semi-empirical, geotechnical design methods. The hardness property indices correlate to construction performance parameters and some relevant experience is cited. Examples of data are presented from an index testing program carried out primarily on siltstone, sandstone and limestone rock core samples retrieved from depths up to 1005 m (3300 ft) in a borehole drilled in the Paradox Basin in eastern Utah. The borehole coring was done for a nuclear waste repository site investigation.

  13. EIA Energy Efficiency-Table 4f. Industrial Production Indexes...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    f Page Last Modified: May 2010 Table 4f. Industrial Production Indexes by Selected Industries, 1998, 2002, and 2006 (2000 100) MECS Survey Years NAICS Subsector and Industry 1998...

  14. Using the NEPA Requirements and Guidance - Search Index

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    - Search Index Step 2: Entering a Search Term or Phrase 1. Locate the downloaded file, ... Use the default option Enter search term or phrase here Step 2.2: Refining Search ...

  15. Parallel In Situ Indexing for Data-intensive Computing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Jinoh; Abbasi, Hasan; Chacon, Luis; Docan, Ciprian; Klasky, Scott; Liu, Qing; Podhorszki, Norbert; Shoshani, Arie; Wu, Kesheng

    2011-09-09

    As computing power increases exponentially, vast amount of data is created by many scientific re- search activities. However, the bandwidth for storing the data to disks and reading the data from disks has been improving at a much slower pace. These two trends produce an ever-widening data access gap. Our work brings together two distinct technologies to address this data access issue: indexing and in situ processing. From decades of database research literature, we know that indexing is an effective way to address the data access issue, particularly for accessing relatively small fraction of data records. As data sets increase in sizes, more and more analysts need to use selective data access, which makes indexing an even more important for improving data access. The challenge is that most implementations of in- dexing technology are embedded in large database management systems (DBMS), but most scientific datasets are not managed by any DBMS. In this work, we choose to include indexes with the scientific data instead of requiring the data to be loaded into a DBMS. We use compressed bitmap indexes from the FastBit software which are known to be highly effective for query-intensive workloads common to scientific data analysis. To use the indexes, we need to build them first. The index building procedure needs to access the whole data set and may also require a significant amount of compute time. In this work, we adapt the in situ processing technology to generate the indexes, thus removing the need of read- ing data from disks and to build indexes in parallel. The in situ data processing system used is ADIOS, a middleware for high-performance I/O. Our experimental results show that the indexes can improve the data access time up to 200 times depending on the fraction of data selected, and using in situ data processing system can effectively reduce the time needed to create the indexes, up to 10 times with our in situ technique when using identical parallel settings.

  16. Method to create gradient index in a polymer

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dirk, Shawn M; Johnson, Ross Stefan; Boye, Robert; Descour, Michael R; Sweatt, William C; Wheeler, David R; Kaehr, Bryan James

    2014-10-14

    Novel photo-writable and thermally switchable polymeric materials exhibit a refractive index change of .DELTA.n.gtoreq.1.0 when exposed to UV light or heat. For example, lithography can be used to convert a non-conjugated precursor polymer to a conjugated polymer having a higher index-of-refraction. Further, two-photon lithography can be used to pattern high-spatial frequency structures.

  17. DOE NEPA Guidance and Requirements - Search Index - List of Contents |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy List of Contents DOE NEPA Guidance and Requirements - Search Index - List of Contents Return to Download Page The NEPA Guidance and Requirements - Search Index includes: A Brief Guide - DOE-wide Contracts For NEPA Documentation [DOE][2003] A Citizen's Guide to the NEPA - Having Your Voice Heard [CEQ][2007] A Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment [DOE][2002] Actions During the NEPA Process - Interim Actions [DOE][2003] Administrative Record Guidance

  18. DOE NEPA Guidance and Requirements - Search Index - Table of Contents |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Table of Contents DOE NEPA Guidance and Requirements - Search Index - Table of Contents Return to Download Page The DOE NEPA Guidance and Requirements - Search Index includes: NEPA Guidance and Requirements Documents Issued by Published A Brief Guide - DOE-wide Contracts For NEPA Documentation DOE 2003 A Citizen's Guide to the NEPA - Having Your Voice Heard CEQ 2007 A Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment DOE 2002 Actions During the NEPA Process -

  19. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  20. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  1. Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Intharathirat, Rotchana; Abdul Salam, P.; Kumar, S.; Untong, Akarapong

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.

  2. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  3. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  4. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  5. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  6. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  7. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  8. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  9. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    forecasted unit sales of five lamp types is an action issued by the Department of Energy. ... with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency ...

  10. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on

  11. 1997 MWD comparison tables

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiseman, K.

    1997-05-01

    This year`s MWD Comparison Tables include a Quick Reference Guide listing MWD sensors by collar size for each manufacturer. Following the Quick Reference Guide are the comparison tables, which list general, directional, gamma ray, resistivity, density and neutron data for each tool. The MWD Tables should only be used as a reference source. System specifications frequently change as tools are refined and developed. Consult MWD marketing representatives prior to making final tool selections. A contact key for all the companies listed in the tables appears on the last page.

  12. Massive-scale RDF Processing Using Compressed Bitmap Indexes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Madduri, Kamesh; Wu, Kesheng

    2011-05-26

    The Resource Description Framework (RDF) is a popular data model for representing linked data sets arising from the web, as well as large scienti#12;c data repositories such as UniProt. RDF data intrinsically represents a labeled and directed multi-graph. SPARQL is a query language for RDF that expresses subgraph pattern-#12;nding queries on this implicit multigraph in a SQL- like syntax. SPARQL queries generate complex intermediate join queries; to compute these joins e#14;ciently, we propose a new strategy based on bitmap indexes. We store the RDF data in column-oriented structures as compressed bitmaps along with two dictionaries. This paper makes three new contributions. (i) We present an e#14;cient parallel strategy for parsing the raw RDF data, building dictionaries of unique entities, and creating compressed bitmap indexes of the data. (ii) We utilize the constructed bitmap indexes to e#14;ciently answer SPARQL queries, simplifying the join evaluations. (iii) To quantify the performance impact of using bitmap indexes, we compare our approach to the state-of-the-art triple-store RDF-3X. We #12;nd that our bitmap index-based approach to answering queries is up to an order of magnitude faster for a variety of SPARQL queries, on gigascale RDF data sets.

  13. A compute-Efficient Bitmap Compression Index for Database Applications

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-01-01

    FastBit: A Compute-Efficient Bitmap Compression Index for Database Applications The Word-Aligned Hybrid (WAH) bitmap compression method and data structure is highly efficient for performing search and retrieval operations on large datasets. The WAH technique is optimized for computational efficiency. The WAH-based bitmap indexing software, called FastBit, is particularly appropriate to infrequently varying databases, including those found in the on-line analytical processing (OLAP) industry. Some commercial database products already include some Version of a bitmap index,more » which could possibly be replaced by the WAR bitmap compression techniques for potentially large operational speedup. Experimental results show performance improvements by an average factor of 10 over bitmap technology used by industry, as well as increased efficiencies in constructing compressed bitmaps. FastBit can be use as a stand-alone index, or integrated into a database system. ien integrated into a database system, this technique may be particularly useful for real-time business analysis applications. Additional FastRit applications may include efficient real-time exploration of scientific models, such as climate and combustion simulations, to minimize search time for analysis and subsequent data visualization. FastBit was proven theoretically to be time-optimal because it provides a search time proportional to the number of elements selected by the index.« less

  14. New methods for indexing multi-lattice diffraction data

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Gildea, Richard J.; Waterman, David G.; Parkhurst, James M.; Axford, Danny; Sutton, Geoff; Stuart, David I.; Sauter, Nicholas K.; Evans, Gwyndaf; Winter, Graeme

    2014-09-27

    A new indexing method is presented which is capable of indexing multiple crystal lattices from narrow wedges of diffraction data. The method takes advantage of a simplification of Fourier transform-based methods that is applicable when the unit-cell dimensions are known a priori. The efficacy of this method is demonstrated with both semi-synthetic multi-lattice data and real multi-lattice data recorded from crystals of ~1 µm in size, where it is shown that up to six lattices can be successfully indexed and subsequently integrated from a 1° wedge of data. Analysis is presented which shows that improvements in data-quality indicators can bemore » obtained through accurate identification and rejection of overlapping reflections prior to scaling.« less

  15. New methods for indexing multi-lattice diffraction data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gildea, Richard J.; Waterman, David G.; Parkhurst, James M.; Axford, Danny; Sutton, Geoff; Stuart, David I.; Sauter, Nicholas K.; Evans, Gwyndaf; Winter, Graeme

    2014-09-27

    A new indexing method is presented which is capable of indexing multiple crystal lattices from narrow wedges of diffraction data. The method takes advantage of a simplification of Fourier transform-based methods that is applicable when the unit-cell dimensions are known a priori. The efficacy of this method is demonstrated with both semi-synthetic multi-lattice data and real multi-lattice data recorded from crystals of ~1 µm in size, where it is shown that up to six lattices can be successfully indexed and subsequently integrated from a 1° wedge of data. Analysis is presented which shows that improvements in data-quality indicators can be obtained through accurate identification and rejection of overlapping reflections prior to scaling.

  16. Identification of features in indexed data and equipment therefore

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Jarman, Kristin H [Richland, WA; Daly, Don Simone [Richland, WA; Anderson, Kevin K [Richland, WA; Wahl, Karen L [Richland, WA

    2002-04-02

    Embodiments of the present invention provide methods of identifying a feature in an indexed dataset. Such embodiments encompass selecting an initial subset of indices, the initial subset of indices being encompassed by an initial window-of-interest and comprising at least one beginning index and at least one ending index; computing an intensity weighted measure of dispersion for the subset of indices using a subset of responses corresponding to the subset of indices; and comparing the intensity weighted measure of dispersion to a dispersion critical value determined from an expected value of the intensity weighted measure of dispersion under a null hypothesis of no transient feature present. Embodiments of the present invention also encompass equipment configured to perform the methods of the present invention.

  17. Radiative Heating Profiles in the Convective Tropics: A Comparison of Observations and Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McFarlane, Sally A.; Mather, Jim H.; Ackerman, Thomas P.

    2005-01-10

    Radiative heating is one of the principal drivers of tropical circulation. While we have good knowledge of radiative fluxes at the top-of-atmosphere and at specific surface sites, observations of atmospheric profiles of radiative heating, particular in cloudy conditions, have been largely unavailable. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program has begun a program to compute radiative heating profiles routinely at its observational sites at Nauru and Manus Island, Papua New Guinea, using observed and retrieved inputs of water vapor and condensed water phase, particle size, and mass. The accuracy of these profiles can be assessed by comparing the calculated TOA and surface fluxes with observations. We have computed radiative heating profiles every 20 minutes for several months at each of these two sites in the 1999-2000 time period, which represent a unique dataset for model comparison. Here, we compare this dataset to model output from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) analysis, the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0) and the Multi-Scale Modeling Framework (MMF). These three models, all run using observed SST for this comparison, provide an interesting range of resolution from the 4 km cloud resolving model in the MMF to the approximately 280 km grid-scale of the CAM and a contrast between forecasting and climate models. In general, the model results fail to capture the structure of the observed heating in the upper troposphere because of their failure to simulate cirrus and stratiform cloud adequately.

  18. Method and system for efficiently searching an encoded vector index

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bui, Thuan Quang; Egan, Randy Lynn; Kathmann, Kevin James

    2001-09-04

    Method and system aspects for efficiently searching an encoded vector index are provided. The aspects include the translation of a search query into a candidate bitmap, and the mapping of data from the candidate bitmap into a search result bitmap according to entry values in the encoded vector index. Further, the translation includes the setting of a bit in the candidate bitmap for each entry in a symbol table that corresponds to candidate of the search query. Also included in the mapping is the identification of a bit value in the candidate bitmap pointed to by an entry in an encoded vector.

  19. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m

  20. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  1. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  2. 1996 MWD comparison tables

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gastineau, J.

    1996-05-01

    Petroleum Engineer International`s ninth annual Measurement While Drilling Tables compare the different operating capabilities of survey and logging tools from 13 MWD vendors. This year`s MWD Comparison Tables include a Quick Reference Guide listing MWD sensors by collar size for each manufacturer. Following the Quick Reference Guide are the comparison tables, listing general, directional, gamma ray, resistivity, density and neutron data for each tool. The MWD Tables should serve only as a reference source. System specifications can change rapidly as tools are refined and developed. Consultation with MWD marketing representatives before making a final tool selection is recommended. A contact key for all of the companies listed in the tables is provided.

  3. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  4. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to

  5. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  6. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  7. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    7a. Space Heating by Census Region and Climate Zone, Million U.S. Households, 1993 Space Heating Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Census Region Climate Zone RSE Row Factors Northeast Midwest South West Fewer than 2,000 CDD and -- More than 2,000 CDD and Few- er than 4,000 HDD More than 7,000 HDD 5,500 to 7,000 HDD 4,000 to 5,499 HDD Few- er than 4,000 HDD 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Total ................................................. 96.6 19.5 23.3 33.5 20.4 8.7 26.5

  8. doe sc arm 16 025 The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    National Laboratory CONUS Continental United States DOE U.S. Department of Energy GoAmazon 201415 Green Ocean Amazon 201415 IR infrared km kilometer LI lifted index MHz megahertz ...

  9. Source-potential rating index-evaluation of Bakken formation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pirkle, F.L., Dembicki, H.

    1985-05-01

    The Bakken formation, an organic-rich, oil-prone unit, is the source of the crude oils found in the middle Bakken and overlying Madison Group. Thickness, organic carbon, and vitrinite reflectance data for the Bakken were gathered from 101 wells within the Williston basin and evaluated in terms of source potential. An index exists that combines sediment thickness, organic carbon content, and thermal maturity data into a single mappable parameter that indicates areas of potential hydrocarbon generation. Multiplying the average percent organic carbon by the effective source rock thickness of a formation yields a richness factor that is then multiplied by maturity scaling factors to give source potential ratings for oil and/or gas generation. By using burial-history curves and thermal-maturation modeling, the rating index can be used to look at source potential through geologic time. The Bakken Formation has been evaluated with the aid of the rating index. The source-potential rating index provides objective semiquantitative measures by which the source potential of a single formation can be compared within an area or the source potential of two or more formations can be compared within the same or different basins. The Bakken did not begin to reach high source potential until toward the end of the Late Cretaceous. This contrasts with previous authorities who believed the Bakken was at peak generation and expelling hydrocarbons throughout the Cretaceous.

  10. GRADIENT INDEX SPHERES BY THE SEQUENTIAL ACCRETION OF GLASS POWDERS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MARIANO VELEZ

    2008-06-15

    The Department of Energy is seeking a method for fabricating mm-scale spheres having a refractive index that varies smoothly and continuously from the center to its surface [1]. The fabrication procedure must allow the creation of a range of index profiles. The spheres are to be optically transparent and have a refractive index differential greater than 0.2. The sphere materials can be either organic or inorganic and the fabrication technique must be capable of scaling to low cost production. Mo-Sci Corporation proposed to develop optical quality gradient refractive index (GRIN) glass spheres of millimeter scale (1 to 2 mm diameter) by the sequential accretion and consolidation of glass powders. Other techniques were also tested to make GRIN spheres as the powder-accretion method produced non-concentric layers and poor optical quality glass spheres. Potential ways to make the GRIN spheres were (1) by "coating" glass spheres (1 to 2 mm diameter) with molten glass in a two step process; and (2) by coating glass spheres with polymer layers.

  11. Unidirectional transmission using array of zero-refractive-index metamaterials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fu, Yangyang; Xu, Lin; Hong Hang, Zhi; Chen, Huanyang

    2014-05-12

    In this Letter, we find that high efficient unidirectional transmission occurs for an array of prisms made of zero-refractive-index metamaterials. As a specific demonstration, we further design the device using Dirac-cone-like photonic crystals. The device can function for a broadband of spectrum. Numerical simulations are performed to verify the one-way wave functionality.

  12. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  13. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  14. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  15. Developing an industrial end-use forecast: A case study at the Los Angeles department of water and power

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mureau, T.H.; Francis, D.M.

    1995-05-01

    The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) uses INFORM 1.0 to forecast industrial sector energy. INFORM 1.0 provides an end-use framework that can be used to forecast electricity, natural gas or other fuels consumption. Included with INFORM 1.0 is a default date set including the input data and equations necessary to solve each model. LADWP has substituted service area specific data for the default data wherever possible. This paper briefly describes the steps LADWP follows in developing those inputs and application in INFORM 1.0.

  16. Fabrication process for a gradient index x-ray lens

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bionta, R.M.; Makowiecki, D.M.; Skulina, K.M.

    1995-01-17

    A process is disclosed for fabricating high efficiency x-ray lenses that operate in the 0.5-4.0 keV region suitable for use in biological imaging, surface science, and x-ray lithography of integrated circuits. The gradient index x-ray optics fabrication process broadly involves co-sputtering multi-layers of film on a wire, followed by slicing and mounting on block, and then ion beam thinning to a thickness determined by periodic testing for efficiency. The process enables the fabrication of transmissive gradient index x-ray optics for the 0.5-4.0 keV energy range. This process allows the fabrication of optical elements for the next generation of imaging and x-ray lithography instruments in the soft x-ray region. 13 figures.

  17. Fabrication process for a gradient index x-ray lens

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bionta, Richard M.; Makowiecki, Daniel M.; Skulina, Kenneth M.

    1995-01-01

    A process for fabricating high efficiency x-ray lenses that operate in the 0.5-4.0 keV region suitable for use in biological imaging, surface science, and x-ray lithography of integrated circuits. The gradient index x-ray optics fabrication process broadly involves co-sputtering multi-layers of film on a wire, followed by slicing and mounting on block, and then ion beam thinning to a thickness determined by periodic testing for efficiency. The process enables the fabrication of transmissive gradient index x-ray optics for the 0.5-4.0 keV energy range. This process allows the fabrication of optical elements for the next generation of imaging and x-ray lithography instruments m the soft x-ray region.

  18. RESIDUA UPGRADING EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT MODELS: WRI COKING INDEXES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John F. Schabron; Joseph F. Rovani, Jr.; Francis P. Miknis; Thomas F. Turner

    2003-06-01

    Pyrolysis experiments were conducted with three residua at 400 C (752 F) at various residence times. The wt % coke and gaseous products were measured for the product oils. The Western Research Institute (WRI) Coking Indexes were determined for the product oils. Measurements were made using techniques that might correlate with the Coking Indexes. These included spin-echo proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, heat capacity measurements at 280 C (536 F), and ultrasonic attenuation. The two immiscible liquid phases that form once coke formation begins were isolated and characterized for a Boscan residuum pyrolyzed at 400 C (752 F) for 55 minutes. These materials were analyzed for elemental composition (CHNS), porphyrins, and metals (Ni,V) content.

  19. The whistler mode refractive index as a function of gyrofrequency

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Albert, J. M.

    2011-08-15

    The refractive index for a constant-frequency whistler mode wave in an electron-proton plasma is considered as a function of position, through the local gyrofrequencies {Omega}{sub e,i}. The full cold plasma dispersion relation is used. The wave frequency can take any value up to the smaller of {Omega}{sub e} and the plasma frequency {omega}{sub pe}, but {omega}{sub pe} is allowed to take any fixed value, as is the wavenormal angle. It is rigorously established that the refractive index is a decreasing function of {Omega}{sub e}. One application of this is to finding locations of Landau and cyclotron resonances, to evaluate the effects of whistler mode waves on radiation belt electrons.

  20. Transient productivity index for numerical well test simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blanc, G.; Ding, D.Y.; Ene, A.

    1997-08-01

    The most difficult aspect of numerical simulation of well tests is the treatment of the Bottom Hole Flowing (BHF) Pressure. In full field simulations, this pressure is derived from the Well-block Pressure (WBP) using a numerical productivity index which accounts for the grid size and permeability, and for the well completion. This productivity index is calculated assuming a pseudo-steady state flow regime in the vicinity of the well and is therefore constant during the well production period. Such a pseudo-steady state assumption is no longer valid for the early time of a well test simulation as long as the pressure perturbation has not reached several grid-blocks around the well. This paper offers two different solutions to this problem: (1) The first one is based on the derivation of a Numerical Transient Productivity Index (NTPI) to be applied to Cartesian grids; (2) The second one is based on the use of a Corrected Transmissibility and Accumulation Term (CTAT) in the flow equation. The representation of the pressure behavior given by both solutions is far more accurate than the conventional one as shown by several validation examples which are presented in the following pages.

  1. Various forms of indexing HDMR for modelling multivariate classification problems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aksu, a?r?; Tunga, M. Alper

    2014-12-10

    The Indexing HDMR method was recently developed for modelling multivariate interpolation problems. The method uses the Plain HDMR philosophy in partitioning the given multivariate data set into less variate data sets and then constructing an analytical structure through these partitioned data sets to represent the given multidimensional problem. Indexing HDMR makes HDMR be applicable to classification problems having real world data. Mostly, we do not know all possible class values in the domain of the given problem, that is, we have a non-orthogonal data structure. However, Plain HDMR needs an orthogonal data structure in the given problem to be modelled. In this sense, the main idea of this work is to offer various forms of Indexing HDMR to successfully model these real life classification problems. To test these different forms, several well-known multivariate classification problems given in UCI Machine Learning Repository were used and it was observed that the accuracy results lie between 80% and 95% which are very satisfactory.

  2. SRRL: NREL Pyrheliometer Comparisons (NPC)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NREL Pyrheliometer Comparisons (NPC) NREL NREL's Solar Radiation Research Laboratory performs annual comparisons of Absolute Cavity Radiometers Intercomparisons for transferring the World Radiometric Reference to international, national, and regional researchers. Reports and Pictures from the following NREL Pyrheliometer Comparisons (NPC) are available: NPC-1999 (04-10 October 1999): Pictures and Report (PDF 1.2 MB) NPC-2001 (24-28 September 2001): Pictures and Report (PDF 1.8 MB) NPC-2002

  3. Long History of IAM Comparisons

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Steven J.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Kejun, Jiang; Kriegler, Elmar; Masui, Toshihiko; Riahi, Keywan; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Tavoni, Massimo; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Weyant, John

    2015-04-23

    Correspondence to editor: We agree with the editors that the assumptions behind models of all types, including integrated assessment models (IAMs), should be as transparent as possible. The editors were in error, however, when they implied that the IAM community is just “now emulating the efforts of climate researchers by instigating their own model inter-comparison projects (MIPs).” In fact, model comparisons for integrated assessment and climate models followed a remarkably similar trajectory. Early General Circulation Model (GCM) comparison efforts, evolved to the first Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP), which was initiated in the early 1990s. Atmospheric models evolved to coupled atmosphere-ocean models (AOGCMs) and results from the first Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP1) become available about a decade later. Results of first energy model comparison exercise, conducted under the auspices of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum, were published in 1977. A summary of the first comparison focused on climate change was published in 1993. As energy models were coupled to simple economic and climate models to form IAMs, the first comparison exercise for IAMs (EMF-14) was initiated in 1994, and IAM comparison exercises have been on-going since this time.

  4. Machine Learning Based Multi-Physical-Model Blending for Enhancing Renewable Energy Forecast -- Improvement via Situation Dependent Error Correction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lu, Siyuan; Hwang, Youngdeok; Khabibrakhmanov, Ildar; Marianno, Fernando J.; Shao, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Hamann, Hendrik F.

    2015-07-15

    With increasing penetration of solar and wind energy to the total energy supply mix, the pressing need for accurate energy forecasting has become well-recognized. Here we report the development of a machine-learning based model blending approach for statistically combining multiple meteorological models for improving the accuracy of solar/wind power forecast. Importantly, we demonstrate that in addition to parameters to be predicted (such as solar irradiance and power), including additional atmospheric state parameters which collectively define weather situations as machine learning input provides further enhanced accuracy for the blended result. Functional analysis of variance shows that the error of individual model has substantial dependence on the weather situation. The machine-learning approach effectively reduces such situation dependent error thus produces more accurate results compared to conventional multi-model ensemble approaches based on simplistic equally or unequally weighted model averaging. Validation over an extended period of time results show over 30% improvement in solar irradiance/power forecast accuracy compared to forecasts based on the best individual model.

  5. Glovebox decontamination technology comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Quintana, D.M.; Rodriguez, J.B.; Cournoyer, M.E.

    1999-09-26

    Reconfiguration of the CMR Building and TA-55 Plutonium Facility for mission requirements will require the disposal or recycle of 200--300 gloveboxes or open front hoods. These gloveboxes and open front hoods must be decontaminated to meet discharge limits for Low Level Waste. Gloveboxes and open front hoods at CMR have been painted. One of the deliverables on this project is to identify the best method for stripping the paint from large numbers of gloveboxes. Four methods being considered are the following: conventional paint stripping, dry ice pellets, strippable coatings, and high pressure water technology. The advantages of each technology will be discussed. Last, cost comparisons between the technologies will be presented.

  6. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  7. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  8. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB Veteran-Owned SB Service Disabled Vet. SB FY 2009 Dollars Goal (projected) $183,949,920 $82,690,000 $4,550,000 $8,829,596 $3,370,000 $5,025,000 $460,000 FY 2009 Dollars Accomplished $143,846,731 $68,174,398 $9,247,214 $11,333,905 $4,979,858 $6,713,791 $1,612,136 FY 2009 % Goal 45.0% 2.5% 4.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.25% FY

  9. Electric-utility DSM programs: 1990 data and forecasts to 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hirst, E.

    1992-06-01

    In April 1992, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data on 1989 and 1990 electric-utility demand-site management (DMS) programs. These data represent a census of US utility DSM programs, with reports of utility expenditures, energy savings, and load reductions caused by these programs. In addition, EIA published utility estimates of the costs and effects of these programs from 1991 to 2000. These data provide the first comprehensive picture of what utilities are spending and accomplishing by utility, state, and region. This report presents, summarizes, and interprets the 1990 data and the utility forecasts of their DSM-program expenditures and impacts to the year 2000. Only utilities with annual sales greater than 120 GWh were required to report data on their DSM programs to EIA. Of the 1194 such utilities, 363 reported having a DSM program that year. These 363 electric utilities spent $1.2 billion on their DSM programs in 1990, up from $0.9 billion in 1989. Estimates of energy savings (17,100 GWh in 1990 and 14,800 GWh in 1989) and potential reductions in peak demand (24,400 MW in 1990 and about 19,400 MW in 1989) also showed substantial increases. Overall, utility DSM expenditures accounted for 0.7% of total US electric revenues, while the reductions in energy and demand accounted for 0.6% and 4.9% of their respective 1990 national totals. The investor-owned utilities accounted for 70 to 90% of the totals for DSM costs, energy savings, and demand reductions. The public utilities reported larger percentage reductions in peak demand and energy smaller percentage DSM expenditures. These averages hide tremendous variations across utilities. Utility forecasts of DSM expenditures and effects show substantial growth in both absolute and relative terms.

  10. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J. -J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Garcia-Pando, C. Perez; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; et al

    2016-04-21

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distributionmore » was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. In this paper, our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.« less

  11. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  12. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  13. Estimating the Wind Resource in Uttarakhand: Comparison of Dynamic...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    More Documents & Publications U.S. Virgin Islands Wind Resources Update 2014 The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term ...

  14. Topic Index to the DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    /21/07 TOPICINDEXTODOEADMINSCHEDULES Topic Index to the DOE Administrative Records Disposition Schedules (excluding the GRS Schedules) Topic Schedule Item [A] [B] [C] [D] [E] [F] [G] [H] [I] [J] [K] [L] [M] [N] [O] [P] [Q] [R] [S] [T] [U] [V] [W] [X] [Y] [Z] A Academic/Outreach Program 1 44 Access Request Files 18 6 Accountable Officers' Files 6 1 Accounting Administrative Files 6 5 Administrative Claims Files 6 10 Administrative Training Records 1 29.2 Administrative Issuances 16 1

  15. DOE technical standards list: Department of Energy standards index

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-06-01

    This technical standards list (TSL) was prepared for use by personnel involved in the selection and use of US DOE technical standards and other government and non-government standards. This TSL provides listings of current DOE technical standards, non-government standards that have been adopted by DOE, other government documents in which DOE has a recorded interest, and cancelled DOE technical standards. Standards are indexed by type in the appendices to this document. Definitions of and general guidance for the use of standards are also provided.

  16. DOE Research and Development Accomplishments Site Index (A-Z)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    A - Z Index A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z A Abrikosov, Alexei Abrikosov, Alexei: Publications activated complex theory of reaction rates adenosine triphosphate AEC Information Retrieval Experiment aerosol, danger of Molina Rowland Agre, Peter Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) Alvarez, Luis W. americium Anderson, Carl David anemia angiography angular momentum anisotropy Anti-Jet-Lag-Diet antimatter Chamberlain Fitch antiparticle antiproton Chamberlain Segrè aquaporin

  17. Tri-Cities Index of Innovation and Technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fowler, Richard A.; Scott, Michael J.; Butner, Ryan S.

    2011-01-17

    In 2001 and 2004, the Economic Development Office of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory published companion reports to the Washington Technology Center Index studies that provided additional information on the Tri-Cities (Kennewick-Richland-Pasco) area of the state, its technology businesses, and important advantages that the Tri-Cities have as places to live and do business. These reports also compared the Tri-Cities area to other technology-based metropolitan areas in the Pacific Northwest and nation along critical dimensions known to be important to technology firms. This report updates the material in these earlier reports, and highlights a growing Tri-Cities metropolitan area.

  18. Gradient index liquid crystal devices and method of fabrication thereof

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lee, J.C.; Jacobs, S.

    1991-10-29

    Laser beam apodizers using cholesteric liquid crystals provides soft edge profile by use of two separate cholesteric liquid crystal mixtures with different selective reflection bands which in an overlap region have a gradient index where reflectivity changes as a function of position. The apodizers can be configured as a one-dimensional beam apod INTRODUCTION The U.S. government has rights in the invention under Contract No. DE-FC03-85DP40200 between the University of Rochester and the Department of Energy.

  19. Gradient index liquid crystal devices and method of fabrication thereof

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lee, Jae-Cheul; Jacobs, Stephen

    1991-01-01

    Laser beam apodizers using cholesteric liquid crystals provides soft edge profile by use of two separate cholesteric liquid crystal mixtures with different selective reflection bands which in an overlap region have a gradient index where reflectivity changes as a function of position. The apodizers can be configured as a one-dimensional beam apod INTRODUCTION The U.S. government has rights in the invention under Contract No. DE-FC03-85DP40200 between the University of Rochester and the Department of Energy.

  20. Risk-Based Comparison of Carbon Capture Technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward

    2013-05-01

    In this paper, we describe an integrated probabilistic risk assessment methodological framework and a decision-support tool suite for implementing systematic comparisons of competing carbon capture technologies. Culminating from a collaborative effort among national laboratories under the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), the risk assessment framework and the decision-support tool suite encapsulate three interconnected probabilistic modeling and simulation components. The technology readiness level (TRL) assessment component identifies specific scientific and engineering targets required by each readiness level and applies probabilistic estimation techniques to calculate the likelihood of graded as well as nonlinear advancement in technology maturity. The technical risk assessment component focuses on identifying and quantifying risk contributors, especially stochastic distributions for significant risk contributors, performing scenario-based risk analysis, and integrating with carbon capture process model simulations and optimization. The financial risk component estimates the long-term return on investment based on energy retail pricing, production cost, operating and power replacement cost, plan construction and retrofit expenses, and potential tax relief, expressed probabilistically as the net present value distributions over various forecast horizons.

  1. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique

  2. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter

  3. Parallel Index and Query for Large Scale Data Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chou, Jerry; Wu, Kesheng; Ruebel, Oliver; Howison, Mark; Qiang, Ji; Prabhat,; Austin, Brian; Bethel, E. Wes; Ryne, Rob D.; Shoshani, Arie

    2011-07-18

    Modern scientific datasets present numerous data management and analysis challenges. State-of-the-art index and query technologies are critical for facilitating interactive exploration of large datasets, but numerous challenges remain in terms of designing a system for process- ing general scientific datasets. The system needs to be able to run on distributed multi-core platforms, efficiently utilize underlying I/O infrastructure, and scale to massive datasets. We present FastQuery, a novel software framework that address these challenges. FastQuery utilizes a state-of-the-art index and query technology (FastBit) and is designed to process mas- sive datasets on modern supercomputing platforms. We apply FastQuery to processing of a massive 50TB dataset generated by a large scale accelerator modeling code. We demonstrate the scalability of the tool to 11,520 cores. Motivated by the scientific need to search for inter- esting particles in this dataset, we use our framework to reduce search time from hours to tens of seconds.

  4. Refractive index of erbium doped GaN thin films

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Alajlouni, S.; Sun, Z. Y.; Li, J.; Lin, J. Y.; Jiang, H. X.; Zavada, J. M.

    2014-08-25

    GaN is an excellent host for erbium (Er) to provide optical emission in the technologically important as well as eye-safe 1540 nm wavelength window. Er doped GaN (GaN:Er) epilayers were synthesized on c-plane sapphire substrates using metal organic chemical vapor deposition. By employing a pulsed growth scheme, the crystalline quality of GaN:Er epilayers was significantly improved over those obtained by conventional growth method of continuous flow of reaction precursors. X-ray diffraction rocking curve linewidths of less than 300 arc sec were achieved for the GaN (0002) diffraction peak, which is comparable to the typical results of undoped high quality GaN epilayers and represents a major improvement over previously reported results for GaN:Er. Spectroscopic ellipsometry was used to determine the refractive index of the GaN:Er epilayers in the 1540 nm wavelength window and a linear dependence on Er concentration was found. The observed refractive index increase with Er incorporation and the improved crystalline quality of the GaN:Er epilayers indicate that low loss GaN:Er optical waveguiding structures are feasible.

  5. Dark Matter Constraints from a Cosmic Index of Refraction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gardner, Susan; Latimer, David C.

    2009-04-01

    The dark-matter candidates of particle physics invariably possess electromagnetic interactions, if only via quantum fluctuations. Taken en masse, dark matter can thus engender an index of refraction which deviates from its vacuum value. Its presence is signaled through frequency-dependent effects: the real part yields dispersive effects in propagation, and the imaginary part yields such in attenuation. We discuss theoretical constraints on the expansion of the index of refraction with frequency, the physical interpretation of the terms, and the particular observations needed to isolate its coefficients. This, with the advent of new opportunities to view gamma-ray bursts at cosmological distance scales, gives us a new probe of dark matter. As a first application we use the time delay determined from radio afterglow observations of gamma-ray bursts to limit the charge-to-mass ratio of dark matter to |{var_epsilon}|/M < 1.8 x 10{sup -5} eV{sup -1} at 95% CL.

  6. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed windmore » speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.« less

  7. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  8. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed wind speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.

  9. Viscosity index calculated by program in GW-basic for personal computers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anaya, C.; Bermudez, O. )

    1988-12-26

    A computer program has been developed to calculate the viscosity index of oils when viscosities at two temperatures are known.

  10. Torque/Moab vs. SLURM Comparisons

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Users TorqueMoab vs. SLURM Comparisons TorqueMoab vs. SLURM Comparisons TORQUE vs. SLURM Comparison Tables MoabTorque vs. Slurm Environment Variables Description MoabTorque ...

  11. Modelling vegetation dynamics at global scale due to climate changes: Comparison of two approaches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Belotelov, N.V.; Bogatyrev, B.G.; Lobanov, A.I.

    1996-12-31

    Climate changes will influence vegetation dynamics. One of the ways of forecasting these changes is the creation of mathematical models describing vegetation dynamics. Computer experiments can then be conducted under climate change scenarios. Two main approaches are used to create such models. The first approach is based on a bioclimatic dynamic approach. The second approach is based on modelling the main eco-physiological processes. The bioclimatic dynamic approach consists of hypotheses about vegetation types or biomes, and their interrelationships with climate. In the eco-physiological approach, a detailed description of the processes, such as production, mortality, plants migration and their competition is presented. A number of computer experiments has been conducted for several climatic scenario for Russia and the whole world. A qualitative comparison of the results with the results of an earlier bioclimatic model has been done.

  12. An Index-Based Approach to Assessing Recalcitrance and Soil Carbon Sequestration Potential of Engineered Black Carbons (Biochars)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harvey, Omar R.; Kuo, Li-Jung; Zimmerman, Andrew R.; Louchouarn, Patrick; Amonette, James E.; Herbert, Bruce

    2012-01-10

    The ability of engineered black carbons (or biochars) to resist abiotic and, or biotic degradation (herein referred to as recalcitrance) is crucial to their successful deployment as a soil carbon sequestration strategy. A new recalcitrance index, the R{sub 50}, for assessing biochar quality for carbon sequestration is proposed. The R{sub 50} is based on the relative thermal stability of a given biochar to that of graphite and was developed and evaluated with a variety of biochars (n = 59), and soot-like black carbons. Comparison of R{sub 50}, with biochar physicochemical properties and biochar-C mineralization revealed the existence of a quantifiable relationship between R{sub 50} and biochar recalcitrance. As presented here, the R{sub 50} is immediately applicable to pre-land application screening of biochars into Class A (R{sub 50} {>=} 0.70), Class B (0.50 {<=} R{sub 50} < 0.70) or Class C (R{sub 50} < 0.50) recalcitrance/carbon sequestration classes. Class A and Class C biochars would have carbon sequestration potential comparable to soot/graphite and uncharred plant biomass, respectively, while Class B biochars would have intermediate carbon sequestration potential. We believe that the coupling of the R{sub 50}, to an index-based degradation, and an economic model could provide a suitable framework in which to comprehensively assess soil carbon sequestration in biochars.

  13. Semiconductor laser devices having lateral refractive index tailoring

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ashby, Carol I. H.; Hadley, G. Ronald; Hohimer, John P.; Owyoung, Adelbert

    1990-01-01

    A broad-area semiconductor laser diode includes an active lasing region interposed between an upper and a lower cladding layer, the laser diode further comprising structure for controllably varying a lateral refractive index profile of the diode to substantially compensate for an effect of junction heating during operation. In embodiments disclosed the controlling structure comprises resistive heating strips or non-radiative linear junctions disposed parallel to the active region. Another embodiment discloses a multi-layered upper cladding region selectively disordered by implanted or diffused dopant impurities. Still another embodiment discloses an upper cladding layer of variable thickness that is convex in shape and symmetrically disposed about a central axis of the active region. The teaching of the invention is also shown to be applicable to arrays of semiconductor laser diodes.

  14. Imaging based refractometer for hyperspectral refractive index detection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baba, Justin S.; Boudreaux, Philip R.

    2015-11-24

    Refractometers for simultaneously measuring refractive index of a sample over a range of wavelengths of light include dispersive and focusing optical systems. An optical beam including the range of wavelengths is spectrally spread along a first axis and focused along a second axis so as to be incident to an interface between the sample and a prism at a range of angles of incidence including a critical angle for at least one wavelength. An imaging detector is situated to receive the spectrally spread and focused light from the interface and form an image corresponding to angle of incidence as a function of wavelength. One or more critical angles are identified and corresponding refractive indices are determined.

  15. Magnetic Response and Negative Refractive Index of Metamaterials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koschny, Th.; Zhou, J.; Soukoulis, C.M.

    2007-05-04

    We study the scaling of negative magnetic response of the SRR from microwave to upper THz frequencies. We show, that the linear scaling breaks down for SRR sizes below the order of 1 {micro}m. This breakdown is due to the contribution of the finite electron mass to the inductance of the effective LC oscillator. While at microwave frequencies metals can be treated as near-perfect conductors, close to optical frequencies they rather constitute lossy negative dielectrics. We also study the scaling of the losses in SRR as well as the higher order excitations or plasmon modes and their magnetic response. We discuss the non-resonant diamagnetic response of the SRR and the corresponding corrections to the shape of the frequency dependent effective permeability of the metamaterial. We discuss the connection of recently suggested alternative negative index metamaterial designs in a unified picture.

  16. Developing an operational capabilities index of the emergency services sector.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Collins, M.J.; Eaton, L.K.; Shoemaker, Z.M.; Fisher, R.E.; Veselka, S.N.; Wallace, K.E.; Petit, F.D.

    2012-02-20

    In order to enhance the resilience of the Nation and its ability to protect itself in the face of natural and human-caused hazards, the ability of the critical infrastructure (CI) system to withstand specific threats and return to normal operations after degradation must be determined. To fully analyze the resilience of a region and the CI that resides within it, both the actual resilience of the individual CI and the capability of the Emergency Services Sector (ESS) to protect against and respond to potential hazards need to be considered. Thus, a regional resilience approach requires the comprehensive consideration of all parts of the CI system as well as the characterization of emergency services. This characterization must generate reproducible results that can support decision making with regard to risk management, disaster response, business continuity, and community planning and management. To address these issues, Argonne National Laboratory, in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Sector Specific Agency - Executive Management Office, developed a comprehensive methodology to create an Emergency Services Sector Capabilities Index (ESSCI). The ESSCI is a performance metric that ranges from 0 (low level of capabilities) to 100 (high). Because an emergency services program has a high ESSCI, however, does not mean that a specific event would not be able to affect a region or cause severe consequences. And because a program has a low ESSCI does not mean that a disruptive event would automatically lead to serious consequences in a region. Moreover, a score of 100 on the ESSCI is not the level of capability expected of emergency services programs; rather, it represents an optimal program that would rarely be observed. The ESSCI characterizes the state of preparedness of a jurisdiction in terms of emergency and risk management. Perhaps the index's primary benefit is that it can systematically capture, at a given point in time, the

  17. Electrically tunable graded index planar lens based on graphene

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nasari, H. Abrishamian, M. S.

    2014-08-28

    The realization of electrically tunable beam focusing using a properly designed conductivity pattern along a strip on a background single graphene flake with operation in the terahertz regime is proposed and numerically investigated. The strip is illuminated with a guided surface plasmon polaritons (SPP) plane wave and the physical origin of the design procedure is evaluated from the phase of effective mode index of propagating SPP wave on graphene. Upon tuning a gate voltage between the graphene sheet and the substrate, the focus tuning is achieved. Finite- difference time-domain numerical technique is employed to explore the propagation characteristic of SPP wave and the performance parameters of the lens include the focal length, full-width half-maximum, and focusing efficiency. Such a one atom thick planar lens with the capability of electrical focus tuning besides the compatibility with current planar optoelectronic systems can find valuable potential applications in the field of transformational plasmon optics.

  18. DESIGN OF WIRE-WRAPPED ROD BUNDLE MATCHED INDEX-OF-REFRACTION EXPERIMENTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hugh McIlroy; Hongbin Zhang; Kurt Hamman

    2008-05-01

    Experiments will be conducted in the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Matched Index-of-Refraction (MIR) Flow Facility [1] to characterize the three-dimensional velocity and turbulence fields in a wire-wrapped rod bundle typically employed in liquid-metal cooled fast reactors and to provide benchmark data for computer code validation. Sodium cooled fast reactors are under consideration for use in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) program. The experiment model will be constructed of quartz components and the working fluid will be mineral oil. Accurate temperature control (to within 0.05 oC) matches the index-of-refraction of mineral oil with that of quartz and renders the model transparent to the wavelength of laser light employed for optical measurements. The model will be a scaled 7-pin rod bundle enclosed in a hexagonal canister. Flow field measurements will be obtained with a LaVision 3-D particle image velocimeter (PIV) and complimented by near-wall velocity measurements obtained from a 2-D laser Doppler velocimeter (LDV). These measurements will be used as benchmark data for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) validation. The rod bundle model dimensions will be scaled up from the typical dimensions of a fast reactor fuel assembly to provide the maximum Reynolds number achievable in the MIR flow loop. A range of flows from laminar to fully-turbulent will be available with a maximum Reynolds number, based on bundle hydraulic diameter, of approximately 22,000. The fuel pins will be simulated by 85 mm diameter quartz tubes (closed on the inlet ends) and the wire-wrap will be simulated by 25 mm diameter quartz rods. The canister walls will be constructed from quartz plates. The model will be approximately 2.13 m in length. Bundle pressure losses will also be measured and the data recorded for code comparisons. The experiment design and preliminary CFD calculations, which will be used to provide qualitative hydrodynamic

  19. Development of an environmental relative moldiness index for US homes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vesper, Sephen J.; McKinstry, Craig A.; Haugland, Richard A.; Wymer, Larry; Bradham, Karen; Ashley, Peter; Cox, David J.; DeWalt, Gary; Friedman, Warren

    2007-08-01

    As part of the HUD American Healthy Survey, dust samples were collected by vacuuming 2 m2 in the bedroom plus 2 m2 in the living room of a nationally representative 1096 homes in the USA using the Mitest sampler. Five mg of sieved (300 pore, nylon mesh) dust was analyzed by mold specific quantitative PCR for the 36 EPA Mold Panel Species. On this basis, an environmental relative moldiness index (ERMI) was created with values ranging from about -10 to 20 (lowest to highest). In order to try to reduce the cost of this analysis, the number of test species was reduced by selecting only those species with a national average concentration of 30 cell equivalents (CE) per mg dust or greater. Only 19 of 36 species met this criterion. (In 40% of the homes, an additional 46 species were quantified from the same dust sample. All of these species had average concentrations less than 30 CE per mg dust.) These 19 species were then categorized into two groups based on their coefficient of variation (CV). If the CV was > 9, the mold was placed in Category 1 (10/19) and the other molds were placed in Category 2 (9/19). Using these Categories, the sum of the log-transformed concentrations of three Category 2 molds (C. herbarum, A. alternata and C. cladosporioides Type 1) was subtracted from the sum of the log-transformed concentrations of the ten Category 1 molds (Aspergillus niger, A. ochraceus, A. penicillioides, A. restrictus, A. sydowii, Chaetomium globosum, Eurotium amsteldoami, Paecilomyces variotii, Penicillium chrysogenum and Wallemia sebi). Assembling these values for the 1096 AHHS homes from lowest to highest produced the American relative moldiness index (ARMI). The correlation between the ERMI and ARMI values was 0.88. The ERMI or ARMI scales may be useful as a standard for mold exposure estimates in epidemiological studies.

  20. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills June 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by

  1. Demand forecasting and revenue requirements, with implications for consideration in British Columbia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acton, J.P.

    1983-05-01

    This paper was filed as an exhibit on behalf of The Consumers' Association of Canada (B.C. Branch), The Federated Anti-Poverty Groups of B.C., The Sierra Club of Western Canada, and the B.C. Old Age Pensioners' Organization. It was subjected to cross-examination on October 29, 1982, during Phase I of the hearings. The Utilities Commission had designated Phase I for consideration of (1) demand, (2) assets in service, (3) revenue requirements excluding return, and (4) financing and capital requirements. This paper presents a general discussion of the elements of a rate structure and their relationship to the demand for electricity, a systematic review of some 50 empirical studies of the demand for electricity as a function of price and other factors by the three principal classes of customers, and a discussion of the notion of revenue requirements. The paper should be of interest to utility regulators, rate specialists, and forecasters for its review of demand models and to academics concerned with the study of energy demand.

  2. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  3. Forecasting the oil-gasoline price relationship: should we care about the Rockets and the Feathers?

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,153 3,253 3.2% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.98 0.2% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $422 3.3% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,993 2,051 2.9% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.36 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $372 $377 1.3% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,372 2,431 2.5% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  4. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  5. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  6. Viscosity index improver-dispersant additive useful in oil compositions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gardiner, J.B.; Dick, M.N.

    1988-10-25

    A process comprising grafting in the substantial absence of solvent a hydrocarbon polymer of C/sub 2/ to C/sub 28/ olefin, the polymer having a number average molecular weight in the range of about 5,000 to 500,000 with an unsaturated material selected from the group consisting of: (A) ethylenically unsaturated C/sub 3/ to C/sub 10/ carboxylic acid having 1 to 2 carboxylic acid groups or an anhydride group, and (B) nitrogen-containing ethylenically unsaturated monomers containing 6 to 30 carbon atoms and 1 to 4 nitrogen atoms, in the presence of a free radical initiator and a chain stopping agent comprising at least one member selected from the group consisting of alphatic mercaptans having 4 to 24 carbon atoms, deithyl hydroxyl amine cumene and phenols, the grafting being conducted in a manner and under conditions sufficient to form a substantially oil soluble graft copolymer useful as a viscosity index improver-dispersant additive for lubricating oil compositions.

  7. Antireflective graded index silica coating, method for making

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Yoldas, Bulent E.; Partlow, Deborah P.

    1985-01-01

    Antireflective silica coating for vitreous material is substantially non-reflecting over a wide band of radiations. This is achieved by providing the coating with a graded degree of porosity which grades the index of refraction between that of air and the vitreous material of the substrate. To prepare the coating, there is first prepared a silicon-alkoxide-based coating solution of particular polymer structure produced by a controlled proportion of water to alkoxide and a controlled concentration of alkoxide to solution, along with a small amount of catalyst. The primary solvent is alcohol and the solution is polymerized and hydrolized under controlled conditions prior to use. The prepared solution is applied as a film to the vitreous substrate and rapidly dried. It is thereafter heated under controlled conditions to volatilize the hydroxyl radicals and organics therefrom and then to produce a suitable pore morphology in the residual porous silica layer. The silica layer is then etched in order to enlarge the pores in a graded fashion, with the largest of the pores remaining being sufficiently small that radiations to be passed through the substrate are not significantly scattered. For use with quartz substrates, extremely durable coatings which display only 0.1% reflectivity have been prepared.

  8. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  9. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dyson, Brian; Chang, N.-B. . E-mail: nchang@even.tamuk.edu

    2005-07-01

    Both planning and design of municipal solid waste management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation. Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with regard to the generation trends facing many fast-growing regions is quite challenging. The lack of complete historical records of solid waste quantity and quality due to insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity has resulted in a situation that makes the long-term system planning and/or short-term expansion programs intangible. To effectively handle these problems based on limited data samples, a new analytical approach capable of addressing socioeconomic and environmental situations must be developed and applied for fulfilling the prediction analysis of solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy. This study presents a new approach - system dynamics modeling - for the prediction of solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban area based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact on sustainable development city wide, the practical implementation was assessed by a case study in the city of San Antonio, Texas (USA). This area is becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in North America due to the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The analysis presents various trends of solid waste generation associated with five different solid waste generation models using a system dynamics simulation tool - Stella[reg]. Research findings clearly indicate that such a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties down when traditional statistical least-squares regression methods are unable to handle such issues.

  10. Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal): Compilation for third quarter 1994, July--September. Volume 19, Number 3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1994-12-01

    This compilation consists of bibliographic data and abstracts for the formal regulatory and technical reports issues by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Staff and its contractors. It is NRC`s intention to publish this compilation quarterly and to cumulate it annually. The main citations and abstracts in this compilation are listed in NUREG number order: NUREG-XXXX, NUREG/CP-XXXX, NUREG/CR-XXXX, and NUREG/IA-XXXX. These precede the following indexes: Secondary Report Number Index, Personal Author Index, Subject Index, NRC Originating Organization Index (Staff Reports), NRC Originating Organization Index (International Agreements), NRC Contract Sponsor Index (Contractor Reports) Contractor Index, International Organization Index, Licensed Facility Index. A detailed explanation of the entries precedes each index.

  11. A Note on the Fisher Ideal Index Decomposition for Structural Change in Energy Intensity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boyd, Gale A.; Roop, Joseph M.

    2004-01-01

    By direct appeal to the theory underlying price index numbers used by the energy decomposition literature, this note proposed the chain weighted Fisher Ideal Index as a formula that solves the ''residual problem;'' i.e., the decomposition is not complete in the sense that the components do not add to the whole. The connection to index number theory also allows us to illustrate that the measures of activity used to define energy intensity need not be additive across the sectors that are involved in the decomposition. We give an empirical example using recent U. S. manufacturing data of the Fisher Ideal Index, compared to the Tornquist Divisia Index, a popular index in the energy literature.

  12. Erosion Resistance Index (ERI) to Assess Surface Stability in Desert Environments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hamada, Yuki; Grippo, Mark A.

    2015-11-01

    A new spectral index—erosion resistance index (ERI)—was developed to assess erosion risks in desert landscapes. The index was developed by applying trigonometry to the combination of the green/red band-ratio and the red/near infrared band-ratio from very high spatial resolution imagery. The resultant ERI maps showed spatially cohesive distributions of high and low index values across the study areas. High index values were observed over areas that were resistant to erosion (such as desert pavement and dense vegetation), while low index values overlapped with areas likely dominated by loose sandy soils, such as stream beds and access roads. Although further investigation is warranted, this new index, ERI, shows promise for the assessment of erosion risks in desert regions.

  13. Long period grating refractive-index sensor: optimal design for single wavelength interrogation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kapoor, Amita; Sharma, Enakshi K.

    2009-11-01

    We report the design criteria for the use of long period gratings (LPGs) as refractive-index sensors with output power at a single interrogating wavelength as the measurement parameter. The design gives maximum sensitivity in a given refractive-index range when the interrogating wavelength is fixed. Use of the design criteria is illustrated by the design of refractive-index sensors for specific application to refractive-index variation of a sugar solution with a concentration and detection of mole fraction of xylene in heptane (paraffin).

  14. U.S. Department of Energy Project Definition Rating Index Guide...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2, U.S. Department of Energy Project Definition Rating Index Guide by Ruben Sanchez Functional areas: Project Management This Guide assists individuals and teams involved in...

  15. Projections of leaf area index in earth system models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Mahowald, Natalie; Lo, Fiona; Zheng, Yun; Harrison, Laura; Funk, Chris; Lombardozzi, Danica; Goodale, Christine

    2016-03-09

    The area of leaves in the plant canopy, measured as leaf area index (LAI), modulates key land–atmosphere interactions, including the exchange of energy, moisture, carbon dioxide (CO2), and other trace gases and aerosols, and is therefore an essential variable in predicting terrestrial carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Here our goal is to characterize the LAI projections from the latest generation of earth system models (ESMs) for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. On average, the models project increases in LAI in both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 over most of the globe, but also show decreases in some partsmore » of the tropics. Because of projected increases in variability, there are also more frequent periods of low LAI across broad regions of the tropics. Projections of LAI changes varied greatly among models: some models project very modest changes, while others project large changes, usually increases. Modeled LAI typically increases with modeled warming in the high latitudes, but often decreases with increasing local warming in the tropics. The models with the most skill in simulating current LAI in the tropics relative to satellite observations tend to project smaller increases in LAI in the tropics in the future compared to the average of all the models. Using LAI projections to identify regions that may be vulnerable to climate change presents a slightly different picture than using precipitation projections, suggesting LAI may be an additional useful tool for understanding climate change impacts. Going forward, users of LAI projections from the CMIP5 ESMs evaluated here should be aware that model outputs do not exhibit clear-cut relationships to vegetation carbon and precipitation. Lastly, our findings underscore the need for more attention to LAI projections, in terms of understanding the drivers of projected changes and improvements to model skill.« less

  16. NONLINEAR COLOR-METALLICITY RELATIONS OF GLOBULAR CLUSTERS. V. NONLINEAR ABSORPTION-LINE INDEX VERSUS METALLICITY RELATIONS AND BIMODAL INDEX DISTRIBUTIONS OF M31 GLOBULAR CLUSTERS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Sooyoung; Yoon, Suk-Jin; Chung, Chul; Lee, Young-Wook; Caldwell, Nelson; Schiavon, Ricardo P.; Kang, Yongbeom; Rey, Soo-Chang

    2013-05-10

    Recent spectroscopy on the globular cluster (GC) system of M31 with unprecedented precision witnessed a clear bimodality in absorption-line index distributions of old GCs. Such division of extragalactic GCs, so far asserted mainly by photometric color bimodality, has been viewed as the presence of merely two distinct metallicity subgroups within individual galaxies and forms a critical backbone of various galaxy formation theories. Given that spectroscopy is a more detailed probe into stellar population than photometry, the discovery of index bimodality may point to the very existence of dual GC populations. However, here we show that the observed spectroscopic dichotomy of M31 GCs emerges due to the nonlinear nature of metallicity-to-index conversion and thus one does not necessarily have to invoke two separate GC subsystems. We take this as a close analogy to the recent view that metallicity-color nonlinearity is primarily responsible for observed GC color bimodality. We also demonstrate that the metallicity-sensitive magnesium line displays non-negligible metallicity-index nonlinearity and Balmer lines show rather strong nonlinearity. This gives rise to bimodal index distributions, which are routinely interpreted as bimodal metallicity distributions, not considering metallicity-index nonlinearity. Our findings give a new insight into the constitution of M31's GC system, which could change much of the current thought on the formation of GC systems and their host galaxies.

  17. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  18. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  19. Energy consumption and expenditure projections by population group on the basis of the annual energy outlook 1999 forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poyer, D.A.; Balsley, J.H.

    2000-01-07

    This report presents an analysis of the relative impact of the base-case scenario used in Annual Energy Outlook 1999 on different population groups. Projections of energy consumption and expenditures, as well as energy expenditure as a share of income, from 1996 to 2020 are given. The projected consumption of electricty, natural gas, distillate fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas during this period is also reported for each population group. In addition, this report compares the findings of the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 report with the 1998 report. Changes in certain indicators and information affect energy use forecasts, and these effects are analyzed and discussed.

  20. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer at $3.94 a gallon

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer at $3.94 a gallon The retail price of diesel fuel is expected to average $3.94 a gallon during the summer driving season that which runs from April through September. That's close to last summer's pump price of $3.95, according to the latest monthly energy outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Demand for distillate fuel, which includes diesel fuel, is expected to be up less than 1 percent from last summer. Daily

  1. SU-E-T-550: Modulation Index for VMAT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Park, J; Park, S; Kim, J; Kim, J; Kim, H; Carlson, J; Ye, S

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: To present modulation indices (MIs) for volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Methods: A total of 40 VMAT plans were retrospectively selected. To investigate the delivery accuracy of each VMAT plan, gamma passing rates, differences in modulating parameters between plans and log files, and differences between the original plans and the plans reconstructed with the log files were acquired. A modulation index (MIt) was designed by multiplications of the weighted quantifications of MLC speeds, MLC accelerations, gantry accelerations and dose-rate variations. Textural features including angular second moment, inverse difference moment, contrast, variance, correlation and entropy were calculated from the fluences of each VMAT plan. To test the performance of suggested MIs, Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients (r) with the plan delivery accuracy were calculated. Conventional modulation indices for VMAT including the modulation complexity score for VMAT (MCSv), leaf travel modulation complexity score (LTMCS) and MI by Li & Xing were calculated, and their correlations were also analyzed in the same way. Results: The r values of contrast (particular displacement distance, d = 1), variance (d = 1), MIt, MCSv, LTMCS and MI by Li&Xing to the local gamma passing rates with 2%/2 mm were 0.547 (p < 0.001), 0.519 (p < 0.001), −0.658 (p < 0.001), 0.186 (p = 0.251), 0.312 (p = 0.05) and −0.455 (p = 0.003), respectively. The r values of those to the MLC errors were −0.863, −0.828, 0.917, −0.635, − 0.857 and 0.795, respectively (p < 0.001). For dose-volumetric parameters, MIt showed higher statistically significant correlations than did the conventional modulation indices. Conclusion: The MIt, contrast (d = 1) and variance (d = 1) showed good performance to predict the VMAT delivery accuracy showing higher correlations to the results of various types of verification methods for VMAT. This work was in part supported by the National Research Foundation of

  2. 3-D photo-patterning of refractive index structures in photosensitive thin film materials

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Potter, Jr., Barrett George; Potter, Kelly Simmons

    2002-01-01

    A method of making a three-dimensional refractive index structure in a photosensitive material using photo-patterning. The wavelengths at which a photosensitive material exhibits a change in refractive index upon exposure to optical radiation is first determined and then a portion of the surface of the photosensitive material is optically irradiated at a wavelength at which the photosensitive material exhibits a change in refractive index using a designed illumination system to produce a three-dimensional refractive index structure. The illumination system can be a micro-lenslet array, a macroscopic refractive lens array, or a binary optic phase mask. The method is a single-step, direct-write procedure to produce a designed refractive index structure.

  3. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (stochastic) model with the weather forecast model (deterministic) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  4. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    unit sales of five lamp types, is a rulemaking action issued by the Department of Energy. ... with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency ...

  5. Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anggraeni, Novia Antika

    2015-04-24

    The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.

  6. Apples with apples: accounting for fuel price risk in comparisons of gas-fired and renewable generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2003-12-18

    For better or worse, natural gas has become the fuel of choice for new power plants being built across the United States. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas combined-cycle and combustion turbine power plants accounted for 96% of the total generating capacity added in the US between 1999 and 2002--138 GW out of a total of 144 GW. Looking ahead, the EIA expects that gas-fired technology will account for 61% of the 355 GW new generating capacity projected to come on-line in the US up to 2025, increasing the nationwide market share of gas-fired generation from 18% in 2002 to 22% in 2025. While the data are specific to the US, natural gas-fired generation is making similar advances in other countries as well. Regardless of the explanation for (or interpretation of) the empirical findings, however, the basic implications remain the same: one should not blindly rely on gas price forecasts when comparing fixed-price renewable with variable-price gas-fired generation contracts. If there is a cost to hedging, gas price forecasts do not capture and account for it. Alternatively, if the forecasts are at risk of being biased or out of tune with the market, then one certainly would not want to use them as the basis for resource comparisons or investment decisions if a more certain source of data (forwards) existed. Accordingly, assuming that long-term price stability is valued, the most appropriate way to compare the levelized cost of these resources in both cases would be to use forward natural gas price data--i.e. prices that can be locked in to create price certainty--as opposed to uncertain natural gas price forecasts. This article suggests that had utilities and analysts in the US done so over the sample period from November 2000 to November 2003, they would have found gas-fired generation to be at least 0.3-0.6 cents/kWh more expensive (on a levelized cost basis) than otherwise thought. With some renewable resources, in particular wind

  7. Comparison between two Lysholm engines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frau, B.A.

    1983-01-01

    The University of California at Berkeley (UCB) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) both have been working on the Lysholm engine as an expander of two phase geothermal brine. The sizes of the machines, (The machine at UCB is rated at 25 kW, and the machine that JPL tested is rated at 1MW) as well as the approaches, are different. Here, some comparisons are made in order to clarify the direction in which future efforts should be conducted.

  8. Comparison

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    these response statistics for data collected from either physical experimentation or numerical modeling. Here, we consider the application of a series of such methods to...

  9. Automated Feature Generation in Large-Scale Geospatial Libraries for Content-Based Indexing.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tobin Jr, Kenneth William; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Cheriydat, Anil; Karnowski, Thomas Paul; Palathingal, Paul J; Potok, Thomas E; Price, Jeffery R

    2006-05-01

    We describe a method for indexing and retrieving high-resolution image regions in large geospatial data libraries. An automated feature extraction method is used that generates a unique and specific structural description of each segment of a tessellated input image file. These tessellated regions are then merged into similar groups, or sub-regions, and indexed to provide flexible and varied retrieval in a query-by-example environment. The methods of tessellation, feature extraction, sub-region clustering, indexing, and retrieval are described and demonstrated using a geospatial library representing a 153 km2 region of land in East Tennessee at 0.5 m per pixel resolution.

  10. Title 40 CFR 1508 Terminology and Index for the Council on Environment...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Terminology and Index for the Council on Environmental Quality Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal Document- RegulationRegulation: Title 40...

  11. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

  12. Spatially addressable design of gradient index structures through spatial light modulator based holographic lithography

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ohlinger, Kris; Lutkenhaus, Jeff [Department of Physics, University of North Texas, Denton, Texas 76203 (United States); Arigong, Bayaner; Zhang, Hualiang [Department of Electrical Engineering, University of North Texas, Denton, Texas 76203 (United States); Lin, Yuankun, E-mail: yuankun.lin@unt.edu [Department of Physics, University of North Texas, Denton, Texas 76203 (United States); Department of Electrical Engineering, University of North Texas, Denton, Texas 76203 (United States)

    2013-12-07

    In this paper, we present an achievable gradient refractive index in bi-continuous holographic structures that are formed through five-beam interference. We further present a theoretic approach for the realization of gradient index devices by engineering the phases of the interfering beams with a pixelated spatial light modulator. As an example, the design concept of a gradient index Luneburg lens is verified through full-wave electromagnetic simulations. These five beams with desired phases can be generated through programming gray level super-cells in a diffractive spatial light modulator. As a proof-of-concept, gradient index structures are demonstrated using synthesized and gradient phase patterns displayed in the spatial light modulator.

  13. Nuclear facility decommissioning and site remedial actions: A selected bibliography, Volume 13: Part 2, Indexes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goins, L.F.; Webb, J.R.; Cravens, C.D.; Mallory, P.K.

    1992-09-01

    This is part 2 of a bibliography on nuclear facility decommissioning and site remedial action. This report contains indexes on the following: authors, corporate affiliation, title words, publication description, geographic location, subject category, and key word.

  14. Effects of the Financial Crisis on Photovoltaics: An Analysis of Changes in Market Forecasts from 2008 to 2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bartlett, J. E.; Margolis, R. M.; Jennings, C. E.

    2009-09-01

    To examine how the financial crisis has impacted expectations of photovoltaic production, demand and pricing over the next several years, we surveyed the market forecasts of industry analysts that had issued projections in 2008 and 2009. We find that the financial crisis has had a significant impact on the PV industry, primarily through increasing the cost and reducing the availability of investment into the sector. These effects have been more immediately experienced by PV installations than by production facilities, due to the different types and duration of investments, and thus PV demand has been reduced by a greater proportion than PV production. By reducing demand more than production, the financial crisis has accelerated previously expected PV overcapacity and resulting price declines.

  15. HOW TO DEAL WITH WASTE ACCEPTANCE UNCERTAINTY USING THE WASTE ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA FORECASTING AND ANALYSIS CAPABILITY SYSTEM (WACFACS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Redus, K. S.; Hampshire, G. J.; Patterson, J. E.; Perkins, A. B.

    2002-02-25

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria Forecasting and Analysis Capability System (WACFACS) is used to plan for, evaluate, and control the supply of approximately 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous wastes from over 60 environmental restoration projects between FY02 through FY10 to the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). WACFACS is a validated decision support tool that propagates uncertainties inherent in site-related contaminant characterization data, disposition volumes during EMWMF operations, and project schedules to quantitatively determine the confidence that risk-based performance standards are met. Trade-offs in schedule, volumes of waste lots, and allowable concentrations of contaminants are performed to optimize project waste disposition, regulatory compliance, and disposal cell management.

  16. Planar optical waveguides for optical panel having gradient refractive index core

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Veligdan, James T.

    2004-08-24

    An optical panel is disclosed. A plurality of stacked planar optical waveguides are used to guide light from an inlet face to an outlet face of an optical panel. Each of the optical waveguides comprises a planar sheet of core material having a central plane. The core material has an index of refraction which decreases as the distance from the central plane increases. The decrease in the index of refraction occurs gradually and continuously.

  17. Planar optical waveguides for optical panel having gradient refractive index core

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Veligdan, James T.

    2001-01-01

    An optical panel is disclosed. A plurality of stacked planar optical waveguides are used to guide light from an inlet face to an outlet face of an optical panel. Each of the optical waveguides comprises a planar sheet of core material having a central plane. The core material has an index of refraction which decreases as the distance from the central plane increases. The decrease in the index of refraction occurs gradually and continuously.

  18. Change in the refractive index of a photorefractive crystal during formation of a spatially screened soliton

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Assel'born, Sergei A; Kundikova, Nataliya D; Novikov, Igor' V

    2010-02-28

    A change in the refractive index of a photorefractive barium-sodium niobate crystal in an alternating electric field during the propagation of intensity-modulated coherent radiation in it is studied. It is shown experimentally that a change in the refractive index in the soliton regime in a photorefractive crystal with a small nonlocal response is independent of the external-field amplitude and intensity-modulation depth. (nonlinear-optics phenomena)

  19. Large-Scale Geospatial Indexing for Image-Based Retrieval and Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tobin Jr, Kenneth William; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Cheriydat, Anil; Karnowski, Thomas Paul; Palathingal, Paul J; Potok, Thomas E; Price, Jeffery R

    2005-12-01

    We describe a method for indexing and retrieving high-resolution image regions in large geospatial data libraries. An automated feature extraction method is used that generates a unique and specific structural description of each segment of a tessellated input image file. These tessellated regions are then merged into similar groups and indexed to provide flexible and varied retrieval in a query-by-example environment.

  20. Enhancing Cloud Radiative Processes and Radiation Efficiency in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iacono, Michael J.

    2015-03-09

    The objective of this research has been to evaluate and implement enhancements to the computational performance of the RRTMG radiative transfer option in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Efficiency is as essential as accuracy for effective numerical weather prediction, and radiative transfer is a relatively time-consuming component of dynamical models, taking up to 30-50 percent of the total model simulation time. To address this concern, this research has implemented and tested a version of RRTMG that utilizes graphics processing unit (GPU) technology (hereinafter RRTMGPU) to greatly improve its computational performance; thereby permitting either more frequent simulation of radiative effects or other model enhancements. During the early stages of this project the development of RRTMGPU was completed at AER under separate NASA funding to accelerate the code for use in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Goddard Earth Observing System GEOS-5 global model. It should be noted that this final report describes results related to the funded portion of the originally proposed work concerning the acceleration of RRTMG with GPUs in WRF. As a k-distribution model, RRTMG is especially well suited to this modification due to its relatively large internal pseudo-spectral (g-point) dimension that, when combined with the horizontal grid vector in the dynamical model, can take great advantage of the GPU capability. Thorough testing under several model configurations has been performed to ensure that RRTMGPU improves WRF model run time while having no significant impact on calculated radiative fluxes and heating rates or on dynamical model fields relative to the RRTMG radiation. The RRTMGPU codes have been provided to NCAR for possible application to the next public release of the WRF forecast model.

  1. Refractive index and absorption detector for liquid chromatography based on Fabry-Perot interferometry

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Yeung, Edward S.; Woodruff, Steven D.

    1984-06-19

    A refractive index and absorption detector for liquid chromatography. It is based in part on a Fabry-Perot interferometer and is used for the improved detection of refractive index and absorption. It includes a Fabry-Perot interferometer having a normally fixed first partially reflecting mirror and a movable second partially reflecting mirror. A chromatographic flow-cell is positioned between the mirrors along the optical axis of a monochromatic laser beam passing through the interferometer. A means for deriving information about the interference fringes coming out of the interferometer is used with a mini-computer to compute the refractive index of the specimen injected into the flow cell. The minicomputer continuously scans the interferometer for continuous refractive index readings and outputs the continuous results of the scans on a chart recorder. The absorption of the specimen can concurrently be scanned by including a second optical path for an excitation laser which will not interfere with the first laser, but will affect the specimen so that absorption properties can be detected. By first scanning for the refractive index of the specimen, and then immediately adding the excitation laser and subsequently scanning for the refractive index again, the absorption of the specimen can be computed and recorded.

  2. Refractive index and absorption detector for liquid chromatography based on Fabry-Perot interferometry

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Yeung, E.S.; Woodruff, S.D.

    1984-06-19

    A refractive index and absorption detector are disclosed for liquid chromatography. It is based in part on a Fabry-Perot interferometer and is used for the improved detection of refractive index and absorption. It includes a Fabry-Perot interferometer having a normally fixed first partially reflecting mirror and a movable second partially reflecting mirror. A chromatographic flow-cell is positioned between the mirrors along the optical axis of a monochromatic laser beam passing through the interferometer. A means for deriving information about the interference fringes coming out of the interferometer is used with a mini-computer to compute the refractive index of the specimen injected into the flow cell. The minicomputer continuously scans the interferometer for continuous refractive index readings and outputs the continuous results of the scans on a chart recorder. The absorption of the specimen can concurrently be scanned by including a second optical path for an excitation laser which will not interfere with the first laser, but will affect the specimen so that absorption properties can be detected. By first scanning for the refractive index of the specimen, and then immediately adding the excitation laser and subsequently scanning for the refractive index again, the absorption of the specimen can be computed and recorded. 10 figs.

  3. Comparisons of Independent Petroleum Supply Statistics

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2005-01-01

    Compares final petroleum data published in the Petroleum Supply Annual with similar petroleum data obtained from other sources. Data comparisons are presented for 1994 through 2003.

  4. ARM - Publications: Science Team Meeting Documents: Comparison...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Comparison of ECMWF Model and ARSCL Cloudiness at the ARM SGP site Kollias, Pavlos RSMASUniversity of Miami Albrecht, Bruce University of Miami The Department of Energy (DOE) ...

  5. Workplace Charging: Comparison of Sustainable Commuting Options

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Workplace Charging: Comparison of Sustainable Commuting Options November 18, 2014 Austin Brown National Renewable Energy Laboratory vehicles.energy.gov Relevance of ROI ...

  6. Review of sustainability indices and indicators: Towards a new City Sustainability Index (CSI)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mori, Koichiro; Christodoulou, Aris

    2012-01-15

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss conceptual requirements for a City Sustainability Index (CSI) and to review existing major sustainability indices/indicators in terms of the requirements. The following indices are reviewed: Ecological Footprint (EF), Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI), Dashboard of Sustainability (DS), Welfare Index, Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare, City Development Index, emergy/exergy, Human Development Index (HDI), Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI), Environmental Policy Index (EPI), Living Planet Index (LPI), Environmentally-adjusted Domestic Product (EDP), Genuine Saving (GS), and some applications of composite indices or/and multivariate indicators to local or regional context as case studies. The key conceptual requirements for an adequate CSI are: (i) to consider environmental, economic and social aspects (the triple bottom line of sustainability) from the viewpoint of strong sustainability; (ii) to capture external impacts (leakage effects) of city on other areas beyond the city boundaries particularly in terms of environmental aspects; (iii) to create indices/indicators originally for the purpose of assessing city sustainability; and (iv) to be able to assess world cities in both developed and developing countries using common axes of evaluation. Based on the review, we conclude that it is necessary to create a new CSI that enables us to assess and compare cities' sustainability performance in order to understand the global impact of cities on the environment and human life as compared with their economic contribution. In the future, the CSI will be able to provide local authorities with guidance toward sustainable paths. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We derive the four key requirements for a new City Sustainability Index (CSI) system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer First, the triple bottom line must be considered in terms of strong sustainability. Black

  7. Distributed Wind Policy Comparison Tool

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE funded "Best Practices for Cost-Effective Distributed Wind" to identify distributed wind technology policy best practices and to help policymakers, utilities, advocates, and consumers examine their effectiveness using a pro forma model. Incorporating a customized feed from the Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency (DSIRE), the Web-based Distributed Wind Policy Comparison Tool is designed to assist state, local, and utility officials in understanding the financial impacts of different policy options to help reduce the cost of distributed wind technologies. The Tool can be used to evaluate the ways that a variety of federal and state policies and incentives impact the economics of distributed wind (and subsequently its expected market growth).

  8. Constructing a resilience index for the Enhanced Critical Infrastructure Protection Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fisher, R. E.; Bassett, G. W.; Buehring, W. A.; Collins, M. J.; Dickinson, D. C.; Eaton, L. K.; Haffenden, R. A.; Hussar, N. E.; Klett, M. S.; Lawlor, M. A.; Millier, D. J.; Petit, F. D.; Peyton, S. M.; Wallace, K. E.; Whitfield, R. G.; Peerenboom, J P

    2010-10-14

    component of the risk management framework and infrastructure protection. This shift in focus toward resilience complements the analysis of protective measures by taking into account the three other phases of risk management: mitigation, response, and recovery (Figure 1). Thus, the addition of a robust resilience index (RI) to the established PMI/VI provides vital information to owners/operators throughout the risk management process. Combining a pre-incident focus with a better understanding of resilience, as well as potential consequences from damaged CIKR, allows owners/operators to better understand different ways to decrease risk by (1) increasing physical security measures to prevent an incident, (2) supplementing redundancy to mitigate the effects of an incident, and (3) enhancing emergency action and business continuity planning to increase the effectiveness of recovery procedures. Information provided by the RI methodology is also used by facility owners/operators to better understand how their facilities compare to similar sector/subsector sites and to help them make risk-based decisions. This report provides an overview of the RI methodology developed to estimate resilience and provide resilience comparisons for sectors and subsectors. The information will be used to (1) assist DHS in analyzing existing response and recovery methods and programs at facilities and (2) identify potential ways to increase resilience. The RI methodology is based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry, which is 'the coevolutionary search for the best in people, their organizations, and the relevant world around them' (Cooperrider et al. 2005). Appreciative Inquiry identifies the best of 'what is' and helps to envision 'what might be.' The ECIP program and the RI represent a new model (using Appreciative Inquiry principles) for information sharing between government and industry (Fisher and Petit 2010). A 'dashboard' display, which provides an interactive tool - rather than a static

  9. Negative running of the spectral index, hemispherical asymmetry and the consistency of Planck with large r

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McDonald, John

    2014-11-01

    Planck favours a negative running of the spectral index, with the likelihood being dominated by low multipoles l?<50 and no preference for running at higher l. A negative spectral index is also necessary for the 2- Planck upper bound on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r to be consistent with values significantly larger than 0.1. Planck has also observed a hemispherical asymmetry of the CMB power spectrum, again mostly at low multipoles. Here we consider whether the physics responsible for the hemispherical asymmetry could also account for the negative running of the spectral index and the consistency of Planck with a large value of r. A negative running of the spectral index can be generated if the hemispherical asymmetry is due to a scale- and space-dependent modulation which suppresses the CMB power spectrum at low multipoles. We show that the observed hemispherical asymmetry at low l can be generated while satisfying constraints on the asymmetry at higher l and generating a negative spectral index of the right magnitude to account for the Planck observation and to allow Planck to be consistent with a large value of r.

  10. Subwavelength silicon through-hole arrays as an all-dielectric broadband terahertz gradient index metamaterial

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Park, Sang-Gil; Jeong, Ki-Hun; Lee, Kanghee; Han, Daehoon; Ahn, Jaewook

    2014-09-01

    Structuring at subwavelength scales brings out artificial media with anomalous optical features called metamaterials. All-dielectric metamaterials have high potential for practical applications over the whole electromagnetic spectrum owing to low loss and optical isotropy. Here, we report subwavelength silicon through-hole arrays as an all-dielectric gradient index metamaterial with broadband THz operation. The unit cell consists of a single subwavelength through-hole on highly resistive monocrystalline silicon. Depending on the fill-factor and period, the effective index was linearly modulated at 0.3–1.6 THz. The experimental results also demonstrate silicon gradient refractive index (Si-GRIN) lenses with parabolic index profiles through the spatial modification of a single unit cell along the radial direction. Si-GRIN lenses either focus 0.4–1.6 THz beam to the diffraction-limit or serve as a flat and thin solid immersion lens on the backside of THz photoconductive antenna for highly efficient pulse extraction. This all-dielectric gradient index metamaterial opens up opportunities for integrated THz GRIN optics.

  11. Indexing Permafrost Soil Organic Matter Degradation Using High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Mann, Benjamin F.; Chen, Hongmei; Herndon, Elizabeth M.; Chu, Rosalie K.; Tolic, Nikola; Portier, Evan F.; Roy Chowdhury, Taniya; Robinson, Errol W.; Callister, Stephen J.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; et al

    2015-06-12

    Microbial degradation of soil organic matter (SOM) is a key process for terrestrial carbon cycling, although the molecular details of these transformations remain unclear. This study reports the application of ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry to profile the molecular composition of SOM and its degradation during a simulated warming experiment. A soil sample, collected near Barrow, Alaska, USA, was subjected to a 40-day incubation under anoxic conditions and analyzed before and after the incubation to determine changes of SOM composition. A CHO index based on molecular C, H, and O data was utilized to codify SOM components according to their observedmore » degradation potentials. Compounds with a CHO index score between –1 and 0 in a water-soluble fraction (WSF) demonstrated high degradation potential, with a highest shift of CHO index occurred in the N-containing group of compounds, while similar stoichiometries in a base-soluble fraction (BSF) did not. Additionally, compared with the classical H:C vs O:C van Krevelen diagram, CHO index allowed for direct visualization of the distribution of heteroatoms such as N in the identified SOM compounds. We demonstrate that CHO index is useful not only in characterizing arctic SOM at the molecular level but also enabling quantitative description of SOM degradation, thereby facilitating incorporation of the high resolution MS datasets to future mechanistic models of SOM degradation and prediction of greenhouse gas emissions.« less

  12. Ambiguity in running spectral index with an extra light field during inflation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kohri, Kazunori; Matsuda, Tomohiro E-mail: matsuda@sit.ac.jp

    2015-02-01

    At the beginning of inflation there could be extra dynamical scalar fields that will soon disappear (become static) before the end of inflation. In the light of multi-field inflation, those extra degrees of freedom may alter the time-dependence of the original spectrum of the curvature perturbation. It is possible to remove such fields introducing extra number of e-foldings prior to 0N{sub e}∼ 6, however such extra e-foldings may make the trans-Planckian problem worse due to the Lyth bound. We show that such extra scalar fields can change the running of the spectral index to give correction of ± 0.01 without adding significant contribution to the spectral index. The corrections to the spectral index (and the amplitude) could be important in considering global behavior of the corrected spectrum, although they can be neglected in the estimation of the spectrum and its spectral index at the pivot scale. The ambiguity in the running of the spectral index, which could be due to such fields, can be used to nullify tension between BICEP2 and Planck experiments.

  13. Indexing Permafrost Soil Organic Matter Degradation Using High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mann, Benjamin F.; Chen, Hongmei; Herndon, Elizabeth M.; Chu, Rosalie K.; Tolic, Nikola; Portier, Evan F.; Roy Chowdhury, Taniya; Robinson, Errol W.; Callister, Stephen J.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Graham, David E.; Liang, Liyuan; Gu, Baohua; Hui, Dafeng

    2015-06-12

    Microbial degradation of soil organic matter (SOM) is a key process for terrestrial carbon cycling, although the molecular details of these transformations remain unclear. This study reports the application of ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry to profile the molecular composition of SOM and its degradation during a simulated warming experiment. A soil sample, collected near Barrow, Alaska, USA, was subjected to a 40-day incubation under anoxic conditions and analyzed before and after the incubation to determine changes of SOM composition. A CHO index based on molecular C, H, and O data was utilized to codify SOM components according to their observed degradation potentials. Compounds with a CHO index score between –1 and 0 in a water-soluble fraction (WSF) demonstrated high degradation potential, with a highest shift of CHO index occurred in the N-containing group of compounds, while similar stoichiometries in a base-soluble fraction (BSF) did not. Additionally, compared with the classical H:C vs O:C van Krevelen diagram, CHO index allowed for direct visualization of the distribution of heteroatoms such as N in the identified SOM compounds. We demonstrate that CHO index is useful not only in characterizing arctic SOM at the molecular level but also enabling quantitative description of SOM degradation, thereby facilitating incorporation of the high resolution MS datasets to future mechanistic models of SOM degradation and prediction of greenhouse gas emissions.

  14. Comparison of CDMS [100] and [111] Oriented Germanium Detectors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leman, S.W.; Hertel, S.A.; Kim, P.; Cabrera, B.; Do Couto E.Silva, E.; Figueroa-Feliciano, E.; McCarthy, K.A.; Resch, R.; Sadoulet, B.; Sundqvist, K.M.; /UC, Berkeley

    2012-09-14

    The Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (CDMS) utilizes large mass, 3-inch diameter x 1-inch thick target masses as particle detectors. The target is instrumented with both phonon and ionization sensors and comparison of energy in each channel provides event-by-event classification of electron and nuclear recoils. Fiducial volume is determined by the ability to obtain good phonon and ionization signal at a particular location. Due to electronic band structure in germanium, electron mass is described by an anisotropic tensor with heavy mass aligned along the symmetry axis defined by the [111] Miller index (L valley), resulting in large lateral component to the transport. The spatial distribution of electrons varies significantly for detectors which have their longitudinal axis orientations described by either the [100] or [111] Miller indices. Electric fields with large fringing component at high detector radius also affect the spatial distribution of electrons and holes. Both effects are studied in a 3 dimensional Monte Carlo and the impact on fiducial volume is discussed.

  15. Storing files in a parallel computing system using list-based index to identify replica files

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Faibish, Sorin; Bent, John M.; Tzelnic, Percy; Zhang, Zhenhua; Grider, Gary

    2015-07-21

    Improved techniques are provided for storing files in a parallel computing system using a list-based index to identify file replicas. A file and at least one replica of the file are stored in one or more storage nodes of the parallel computing system. An index for the file comprises at least one list comprising a pointer to a storage location of the file and a storage location of the at least one replica of the file. The file comprises one or more of a complete file and one or more sub-files. The index may also comprise a checksum value for one or more of the file and the replica(s) of the file. The checksum value can be evaluated to validate the file and/or the file replica(s). A query can be processed using the list.

  16. Method of producing optical quality glass having a selected refractive index

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Poco, John F.; Hrubesh, Lawrence W.

    2000-01-01

    Optical quality glass having a selected refractive index is produced by a two stage drying process. A gel is produced using sol-gel chemistry techniques and first dried by controlled evaporation until the gel volume reaches a pre-selected value. This pre-selected volume determines the density and refractive index of the finally dried gel. The gel is refilled with solvent in a saturated vapor environment, and then dried again by supercritical extraction of the solvent to form a glass. The glass has a refractive index less than the full density of glass, and the range of achievable refractive indices depends on the composition of the glass. Glasses having different refractive indices chosen from an uninterrupted range of values can be produced from a single precursor solution.

  17. Distributed Wind Policy Comparison Tool

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2011-12-01

    Power through Policy: 'Best Practices' for Cost-Effective Distributed Wind is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-funded project to identify distributed wind technology policy best practices and to help policymakers, utilities, advocates, and consumers examine their effectiveness using a pro forma model. Incorporating a customized feed from the Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency (DSIRE), the Web-based Distributed Wind Policy Comparison Tool (Policy Tool) is designed to assist state, local, and utility officials in understanding the financial impacts of different policy options to help reduce the cost of distributed wind technologies. The Policy Tool can be used to evaluate the ways that a variety of federal and state policies and incentives impact the economics of distributed wind (and subsequently its expected market growth). It also allows policymakers to determine the impact of policy options, addressing market challenges identified in the U.S. DOE’s '20% Wind Energy by 2030' report and helping to meet COE targets.

  18. RTU Comparison Calculator Enhancement Plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, James D.; Wang, Weimin; Katipamula, Srinivas

    2014-03-31

    Over the past two years, Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office (BTO) has been investigating ways to increase the operating efficiency of the packaged rooftop units (RTUs) in the field. First, by issuing a challenge to the RTU manufactures to increase the integrated energy efficiency ratio (IEER) by 60% over the existing ASHRAE 90.1-2010 standard. Second, by evaluating the performance of an advanced RTU controller that reduces the energy consumption by over 40%. BTO has previously also funded development of a RTU comparison calculator (RTUCC). RTUCC is a web-based tool that provides the user a way to compare energy and cost savings for two units with different efficiencies. However, the RTUCC currently cannot compare savings associated with either the RTU Challenge unit or the advanced RTU controls retrofit. Therefore, BTO has asked PNNL to enhance the tool so building owners can compare energy and savings associated with this new class of products. This document provides the details of the enhancements that are required to support estimating energy savings from use of RTU challenge units or advanced controls on existing RTUs.

  19. RTU Comparison Calculator Enhancement Plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, James D.; Wang, Weimin; Katipamula, Srinivas

    2015-07-01

    Over the past two years, Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office (BTO) has been investigating ways to increase the operating efficiency of the packaged rooftop units (RTUs) in the field. First, by issuing a challenge to the RTU manufactures to increase the integrated energy efficiency ratio (IEER) by 60% over the existing ASHRAE 90.1-2010 standard. Second, by evaluating the performance of an advanced RTU controller that reduces the energy consumption by over 40%. BTO has previously also funded development of a RTU comparison calculator (RTUCC). RTUCC is a web-based tool that provides the user a way to compare energy and cost savings for two units with different efficiencies. However, the RTUCC currently cannot compare savings associated with either the RTU Challenge unit or the advanced RTU controls retrofit. Therefore, BTO has asked PNNL to enhance the tool so building owners can compare energy and savings associated with this new class of products. This document provides the details of the enhancements that are required to support estimating energy savings from use of RTU challenge units or advanced controls on existing RTUs.

  20. Attractor comparisons based on density

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carroll, T. L.

    2015-01-15

    Recognizing a chaotic attractor can be seen as a problem in pattern recognition. Some feature vector must be extracted from the attractor and used to compare to other attractors. The field of machine learning has many methods for extracting feature vectors, including clustering methods, decision trees, support vector machines, and many others. In this work, feature vectors are created by representing the attractor as a density in phase space and creating polynomials based on this density. Density is useful in itself because it is a one dimensional function of phase space position, but representing an attractor as a density is also a way to reduce the size of a large data set before analyzing it with graph theory methods, which can be computationally intensive. The density computation in this paper is also fast to execute. In this paper, as a demonstration of the usefulness of density, the density is used directly to construct phase space polynomials for comparing attractors. Comparisons between attractors could be useful for tracking changes in an experiment when the underlying equations are too complicated for vector field modeling.

  1. Extraction of diffuse correlation spectroscopy flow index by integration of Nth-order linear model with Monte Carlo simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shang, Yu; Lin, Yu; Yu, Guoqiang; Li, Ting; Chen, Lei; Toborek, Michal

    2014-05-12

    Conventional semi-infinite solution for extracting blood flow index (BFI) from diffuse correlation spectroscopy (DCS) measurements may cause errors in estimation of BFI (αD{sub B}) in tissues with small volume and large curvature. We proposed an algorithm integrating Nth-order linear model of autocorrelation function with the Monte Carlo simulation of photon migrations in tissue for the extraction of αD{sub B}. The volume and geometry of the measured tissue were incorporated in the Monte Carlo simulation, which overcome the semi-infinite restrictions. The algorithm was tested using computer simulations on four tissue models with varied volumes/geometries and applied on an in vivo stroke model of mouse. Computer simulations shows that the high-order (N ≥ 5) linear algorithm was more accurate in extracting αD{sub B} (errors < ±2%) from the noise-free DCS data than the semi-infinite solution (errors: −5.3% to −18.0%) for different tissue models. Although adding random noises to DCS data resulted in αD{sub B} variations, the mean values of errors in extracting αD{sub B} were similar to those reconstructed from the noise-free DCS data. In addition, the errors in extracting the relative changes of αD{sub B} using both linear algorithm and semi-infinite solution were fairly small (errors < ±2.0%) and did not rely on the tissue volume/geometry. The experimental results from the in vivo stroke mice agreed with those in simulations, demonstrating the robustness of the linear algorithm. DCS with the high-order linear algorithm shows the potential for the inter-subject comparison and longitudinal monitoring of absolute BFI in a variety of tissues/organs with different volumes/geometries.

  2. Identification of RESNET HERS Index Values Corresponding to Minimal Complicance with the IECC Performance Path

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Taylor, Zachary T.; Mendon, Vrushali V.

    2014-05-01

    This analysis provides a limited evaluation of the relationship between the Residential Energy Services Network (RESNET) Home Energy Rating System (HERS) Index and the simulation-based performance approach used in the 2012 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). Not all differences between the approaches are analyzed here; only a subset of the distinctions considered likely to result in quantifiable differences in the outcomes of the two approaches or otherwise believed to be of interest to code developers and policy makers are considered. This analysis evaluates, for a single-family residence with various characteristics, the ranges of HERS Index values that would result in compliance with the 2012 IECC.

  3. All-dielectric three-dimensional broadband Eaton lens with large refractive index range

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yin, Ming; Yong Tian, Xiao, E-mail: leoxyt@mail.xjtu.edu.cn; Ling Wu, Ling; Chen Li, Di [State Key Laboratory for Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049 (China)

    2014-03-03

    We proposed a method to realize three-dimensional (3D) gradient index (GRIN) devices requiring large refractive index (RI) range with broadband performance. By combining non-resonant GRIN woodpile photonic crystals structure in the metamaterial regime with a compound liquid medium, a wide RI range (16.32) was fulfilled flexibly. As a proof-of-principle for the low-loss and non-dispersive method, a 3D Eaton lens was designed and fabricated based on 3D printing process. Full-wave simulation and experiment validated its omnidirectional wave bending effects in a broad bandwidth covering Ku band (12?GHz18?GHz)

  4. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  5. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  6. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 5: The DOETRAN user`s manual; The DOE-2/DBEDT DSM forecasting model interface

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then process the data into the forecasting model format. As DOETRAN processes the DOE-2 data, graphs of the total electric monthly impacts for each DSM measure appear, providing the user with a visual means of inspecting DOE-2 data, as well as following program execution. DOETRAN provides three tables for each building type for the forecasting model, one for electric measures, gas measures, and basecases. The optional fourth function provided by DOETRAN is to view graphs of total electric annual impacts by measure. This last option allows a comparative view of how one measure rates against another. A section in this manual is devoted to each of the four functions mentioned above, as well as computer requirements and exiting DOETRAN.

  7. Torque/Moab vs. SLURM Comparisons

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Users » Torque/Moab vs. SLURM Comparisons Torque/Moab vs. SLURM Comparisons TORQUE vs. SLURM Comparison Tables Moab/Torque vs. Slurm Environment Variables Description Moab/Torque Slurm Job Id $PBS_JOBID $SLURM_JOB_ID Job Name $PBS_JOBNAME $SLURM_JOB_NAME Submit Directory $PBS_O_WORKDIR $SLURM_SUBMIT_DIR Node List $PBS_NODEFILE $SLURM_NODELIST Host submitted from $PBS_O_HOST $SLURM_SUBMIT_HOST Nodes allocated $PBS_NUM_NODES $SLURM_JOB_NUM_NODES Number cores/nodes $PBS_NUM_PPN $SLURM_CPUS_ON_NODE

  8. Coupling WRF double-moment 6-class microphysics schemes to RRTMG radiation scheme in weather research forecasting model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Bae, Soo Ya; Hong, Song -You; Lim, Kyo-Sun Sunny

    2016-01-01

    A method to explicitly calculate the effective radius of hydrometeors in the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) double-moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme is designed to tackle the physical inconsistency in cloud properties between the microphysics and radiation processes. At each model time step, the calculated effective radii of hydrometeors from the WDM6 scheme are linked to the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs (RRTMG) scheme to consider the cloud effects in radiative flux calculation. This coupling effect of cloud properties between the WDM6 and RRTMG algorithms is examined for a heavy rainfall event in Korea during 25–27 July 2011, and itmore » is compared to the results from the control simulation in which the effective radius is prescribed as a constant value. It is found that the derived radii of hydrometeors in the WDM6 scheme are generally larger than the prescribed values in the RRTMG scheme. Consequently, shortwave fluxes reaching the ground (SWDOWN) are increased over less cloudy regions, showing a better agreement with a satellite image. The overall distribution of the 24-hour accumulated rainfall is not affected but its amount is changed. In conclusion, a spurious rainfall peak over the Yellow Sea is alleviated, whereas the local maximum in the central part of the peninsula is increased.« less

  9. Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1994--FY 2001. Environmental Restoration Program, September 1993 Revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    This Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project. FY 1994--FY 2001 is the third in a series of documents that report current estimates of the waste volumes expected to be generated as a result of Environmental Restoration activities at Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office (DOE-ORO), sites. Considered in the scope of this document are volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of remedial action and decontamination and decommissioning activities taking place at these sites. Sites contributing to the total estimates make up the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Y-12 Plant, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, and the off-site contaminated areas adjacent to the Oak Ridge facilities (collectively referred to as the Oak Ridge Reservation Off-Site area). Estimates are available for the entire fife of all waste generating activities. This document summarizes waste estimates forecasted for the 8-year period of FY 1994-FY 2001. Updates with varying degrees of change are expected throughout the refinement of restoration strategies currently in progress at each of the sites. Waste forecast data are relatively fluid, and this document represents remediation plans only as reported through September 1993.

  10. Final Report, 2011-2014. Forecasting Carbon Storage as Eastern Forests Age. Joining Experimental and Modeling Approaches at the UMBS AmeriFlux Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis, Peter; Bohrer, Gil; Gough, Christopher; Nadelhoffer, Knute

    2015-03-12

    At the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) AmeriFlux sites (US-UMB and US-UMd), long-term C cycling measurements and a novel ecosystem-scale experiment are revealing physical, biological, and ecological mechanisms driving long-term trajectories of C cycling, providing new data for improving modeling forecasts of C storage in eastern forests. Our findings provide support for previously untested hypotheses that stand-level structural and biological properties constrain long-term trajectories of C storage, and that remotely sensed canopy structural parameters can substantially improve model forecasts of forest C storage. Through the Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET), we are directly testing the hypothesis that forest C storage will increase due to increasing structural and biological complexity of the emerging tree communities. Support from this project, 2011-2014, enabled us to incorporate novel physical and ecological mechanisms into ecological, meteorological, and hydrological models to improve forecasts of future forest C storage in response to disturbance, succession, and current and long-term climate variation

  11. Particle Measurement Methodology: Comparison of On-road and Lab...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Measurement Methodology: Comparison of On-road and Lab Diesel Particle Size Distributions Particle Measurement Methodology: Comparison of On-road and Lab Diesel Particle Size ...

  12. Comparisons of neutrino event generators from an oscillation...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    of high energy physics data, ideally giving a baseline comparison between the state-of-art theoretical models and experimental data. Presented here is a comparison between three...

  13. Diesel Health Impacts & Recent Comparisons to Other Fuels | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Health Impacts & Recent Comparisons to Other Fuels Diesel Health Impacts & Recent Comparisons to Other Fuels 2002 DEER Conference Presentation: Natural Resources Defense Council ...

  14. Comparison of Water-Hydrogen Catalytic Exchange Processes Versus...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Comparison of Water-Hydrogen Catalytic Exchange Processes Versus Water Distillation for Water Detritiation Comparison of Water-Hydrogen Catalytic Exchange Processes Versus Water ...

  15. Lidar Inter-Comparison Exercise Final Campaign Report (Program...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Program Document: Lidar Inter-Comparison Exercise Final Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Lidar Inter-Comparison Exercise Final Campaign Report The ...

  16. Advantages of liquid fluoride thorium reactor in comparison with...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    comparison with light water reactor Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Advantages of liquid fluoride thorium reactor in comparison with light water reactor Liquid Fluoride ...

  17. A comparison between characteristics of atmospheric-pressure...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    A comparison between characteristics of atmospheric-pressure plasma jets sustained by ... Title: A comparison between characteristics of atmospheric-pressure plasma jets sustained ...

  18. Comparison Between Keyhole Weld Model and Laser Welding Experiments...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: Comparison Between Keyhole Weld Model and Laser Welding Experiments Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Comparison Between Keyhole Weld Model and Laser...

  19. Regulatory and technical reports (Abstract Index Journal). Annual compilation for 1992: Volume 17, No. 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-02-01

    This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors, proceedings of conferences and workshops, grants, and international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility.

  20. Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal): Annual compilation for 1997. Volume 22, Number 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-04-01

    This journal includes all formal reports in the NUREG series prepared by the NRC staff and contractors; proceedings of conferences and workshops; as well as international agreement reports. The entries in this compilation are indexed for access by title and abstract, secondary report number, personal author, subject, NRC organization for staff and international agreements, contractor, international organization, and licensed facility.

  1. Directives Checklist and Cross-Reference Index as of 2-12-91

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1991-02-26

    The order transmits a checklist of current Department of Energy (DOE) and Headquarters (HQ) directives and a cross-reference index of DOE and HQ Orders published on or before 2-12-91. Cancels DOE O 0000.2c. Canceled by DOE N 1321.139.

  2. Data summary of municipal solid waste management alternatives. Volume 11, Alphabetically indexed bibliography

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1992-10-01

    This appendix contains the alphabetically indexed bibliography for the complete group of reports on municipal waste management alternatives. The references are listed for each of the following topics: mass burn technologies, RDF technologies, fluidized-bed combustion, pyrolysis and gasification of MSW, materials recovery- recycling technologies, sanitary landfills, composting, and anaerobic digestion of MSW.

  3. Glasses having a low non-linear refractive index for laser applications

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Faulstich, Marga; Jahn, Walter; Krolla, Georg; Neuroth, Norbert

    1980-01-01

    Glass composition ranges are described which permit the introduction of laser activators into fluorphosphate glass with exceptionally high fluorine content while forming glasses of high crystallization stability and permitting the realization of large melt volumes. The high fluorine content imparts to the glasses an exceptionally low nonlinear refractive index n.sub.2 down to O,4 .times.10.sup.-13 esu.

  4. Data summary of municipal solid waste management alternatives. Volume 12, Numerically indexed bibliography

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1992-10-01

    This appendix contains the numerically indexed bibliography for the complete group of reports on municipal solid waste management alternatives. The list references information on the following topics: mass burn technologies, RDF technologies, fluidized bed combustion, pyrolysis and gasification of MSW, materials recovery- recycling technologies, sanitary landfills, composting and anaerobic digestion of MSW.

  5. Master index for the carbon dioxide research state-of-the-art report series

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Farrell, M P

    1987-03-01

    Four State of the Art (SOA) reports, ''Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and the Global Carbon Cycle,'' ''Direct Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide on Vegetation,'' ''Detecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,'' and ''Projecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,'' and two companion reports, ''Characterization of Information Requirements for Studies of CO/sub 2/ Effects: Water Resources, Agriculture, Fisheries, Forests and Human Health'' and ''Glaciers, Ice Sheets, and Sea Level: Effect of a CO/sub 2/-Induced Climatic Change,'' were published by the US Department of Energy's Carbon Dioxide Research Division. Considerable information on atmospheric carbon dioxide and its possible effects on world climate is summarized in these six volumes. Each volume has its own index, but to make the information that is distributed throughout the six volumes more accessible and usable, comprehensive citation and subject indexes have been compiled. The subject indexes of the individual volumes have been edited to provide a uniformity from volume to volume and also to draw distinctions not needed in the separate volumes' indexes. Also, the comprehensive subject index has been formatted in a matrix arrangement to graphically show the distribution of subject treatment from volume to volume. Other aids include cross references between the scientific and common names of the animals and plants referred to, a glossary of special terms used, tables of data and conversion factors related to the data, and explanations of the acronyms and initialisms used in the texts of the six volumes. The executive summaries of the six volumes are collected and reproduced to allow the readers interested in the contents of one volume to rapidly gain information on the contents of the other volumes.

  6. Nuclear Facility Decommissioning and Site Remedial Actions: A selected bibliography, Volume 14. Environmental Restoration Program: Part 2, Indexes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goins, L.F.; Webb, J.R.; Cravens, C.D.; Mallory, P.K.

    1993-09-01

    This Part 2 of this report provides indexes of: Author, Corporate Affiliation, Title Word, Publication Description, Geographic Location, Subject Category, and Key Words.

  7. Summary of available waste forecast data for the Environmental Restoration Program at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    This report identifies patterns of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Environmental Restoration (ER) waste generation that are predicted by the current ER Waste Generation Forecast data base. It compares the waste volumes to be generated with the waste management capabilities of current and proposed treatment, storage, or disposal (TSD) facilities. The scope of this report is limited to wastes generated during activities funded by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environmental Restoration (EM-40) and excludes wastes from the decontamination and decommissioning of facilities. Significant quantities of these wastes are expected to be generated during ER activities. This report has been developed as a management tool supporting communication and coordination of waste management activities at ORNL. It summarizes the available data for waste that will be generated as a result of remediation activities under the direction of the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office and identifies areas requiring continued waste management planning and coordination. Based on the available data, it is evident that most remedial action wastes leaving the area of contamination can be managed adequately with existing and planned ORR waste management facilities if attention is given to waste generation scheduling and the physical limitations of particular TSD facilities. Limited use of off-site commercial TSD facilities is anticipated, provided the affected waste streams can be shown to satisfy the requirements of the performance objective for certification of non-radioactive hazardous waste and the waste acceptance criteria of the off-site facilities. Ongoing waste characterization will be required to determine the most appropriate TSD facility for each waste stream.

  8. Simulations of arctic mixed-phase clouds in forecasts with CAM3 and AM2 for M-PACE

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Xie, Shaocheng; Boyle, James; Klein, Stephen A.; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven

    2008-02-27

    [1] Simulations of mixed-phase clouds in forecasts with the NCAR Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the GFDL Atmospheric Model version 2 (AM2) for the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) are performed using analysis data from numerical weather prediction centers. CAM3 significantly underestimates the observed boundary layer mixed-phase cloud fraction and cannot realistically simulate the variations of liquid water fraction with temperature and cloud height due to its oversimplified cloud microphysical scheme. In contrast, AM2 reasonably reproduces the observed boundary layer cloud fraction while its clouds contain much less cloud condensate than CAM3 and the observations. The simulation of themore » boundary layer mixed-phase clouds and their microphysical properties is considerably improved in CAM3 when a new physically based cloud microphysical scheme is used (CAM3LIU). The new scheme also leads to an improved simulation of the surface and top of the atmosphere longwave radiative fluxes. Sensitivity tests show that these results are not sensitive to the analysis data used for model initialization. Increasing model horizontal resolution helps capture the subgrid-scale features in Arctic frontal clouds but does not help improve the simulation of the single-layer boundary layer clouds. AM2 simulated cloud fraction and LWP are sensitive to the change in cloud ice number concentrations used in the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process while CAM3LIU only shows moderate sensitivity in its cloud fields to this change. Furthermore, this paper shows that the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process is important for these models to correctly simulate the observed features of mixed-phase clouds.« less

  9. Comparison of Fuel Cell Technologies: Fact Sheet | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Comparison of Fuel Cell Technologies: Fact Sheet Comparison of Fuel Cell Technologies: Fact Sheet An overview comparison of fuel cell technologies by the Fuel Cell Technologies Office. Comparison of Fuel Cell Technologies (436.24 KB) More Documents & Publications Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Program: Fuel Cells Fact Sheet Fuel Cells Fact Sheet MCFC and PAFC R&D Workshop Summary Report

  10. Dielectric waveguide with transverse index variation that support a zero group velocity mode at a non-zero longitudinal wavevector

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ibanescu, Mihai; Joannopoious, John D.; Fink, Yoel; Johnson, Steven G.; Fan, Shanhui

    2005-06-21

    Optical components including a laser based on a dielectric waveguide extending along a waveguide axis and having a refractive index cross-section perpendicular to the waveguide axis, the refractive index cross-section supporting an electromagnetic mode having a zero group velocity for a non-zero wavevector along the waveguide axis.

  11. 1989 OCRWM [Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management] Bulletin compilation and index

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1990-02-01

    The OCRWM Bulletin is published by the Department of Energy, Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to provide current information about the national program for managing spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste. This document is a compilation of issues from the 1989 calendar year. A table of contents and one index have been provided to assist in finding information contained in this year`s Bulletins. The pages have been numbered consecutively at the bottom for easy reference. 7 figs.

  12. Proposal of an environmental performance index to assess solid waste treatment technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goulart Coelho, Hosmanny Mauro; Lange, Lisete Celina; Coelho, Lineker Max Goulart

    2012-07-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Proposal of a new concept in waste management: Cleaner Treatment. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Development of an index to assess quantitatively waste treatment technologies. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Delphi Method was carried out so as to define environmental indicators. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Environmental performance evaluation of waste-to-energy plants. - Abstract: Although the concern with sustainable development and environment protection has considerably grown in the last years it is noted that the majority of decision making models and tools are still either excessively tied to economic aspects or geared to the production process. Moreover, existing models focus on the priority steps of solid waste management, beyond waste energy recovery and disposal. So, in order to help the lack of models and tools aiming at the waste treatment and final disposal, a new concept is proposed: the Cleaner Treatment, which is based on the Cleaner Production principles. This paper focuses on the development and validation of the Cleaner Treatment Index (CTI), to assess environmental performance of waste treatment technologies based on the Cleaner Treatment concept. The index is formed by aggregation (summation or product) of several indicators that consists in operational parameters. The weights of the indicator were established by Delphi Method and Brazilian Environmental Laws. In addition, sensitivity analyses were carried out comparing both aggregation methods. Finally, index validation was carried out by applying the CTI to 10 waste-to-energy plants data. From sensitivity analysis and validation results it is possible to infer that summation model is the most suitable aggregation method. For summation method, CTI results were superior to 0.5 (in a scale from 0 to 1) for most facilities evaluated. So, this study demonstrates that CTI is a simple and robust tool to assess and compare the environmental performance of different

  13. A System Degradation Study of 445 Systems Using Year-Over-Year Performance Index Analysis

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This graphic summarizes the results of a study conducted by the SunPower Corporation, to assess the median degradation of a large number of systems. This is important because solar investors need proof of low degradation. The study, a project under DOE's SunShot Initiative, makes use of year-over-year performance index change analysis, a powerful and practical technique for assessing the median degradation of a large fleet of systems, which in this case includes a sample of 445.

  14. Bibliography and author index for electrical discharges in vacuum (1897 to 1980)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, H.C.

    1982-01-29

    This bibliography covers the field of electrical discharges in vacuum, comprising both electrical breakdown in vacuum and vacuum arcs. A brief review section lists some review papers which would be helpful to the novice in this field. The bulk of the paper consists of bibliographic listings, arranged by year of publication and within each year, alphabetically by first author. An author index refers one to all papers authored or coauthored by a particular person. There are 2450 papers listed through December 1980.

  15. All-optical on-chip sensor for high refractive index sensing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, Yazhao; Salemink, H. W. M.

    2015-01-19

    A highly sensitive sensor design based on two-dimensional photonic crystal cavity is demonstrated. The geometric structure of the cavity is modified to gain a high quality factor, which enables a sensitive refractive index sensing. A group of slots with optimized parameters is created in the cavity. The existence of the slots enhances the light-matter interactions between confined photons and analytes. The interactions result in large wavelength shifts in the transmission spectra and are denoted by high sensitivities. Experiments show that a change in refractive index of Δn ∼ 0.12 between water and oil sample 1 causes a spectral shift of 23.5 nm, and the spectral shift between two oil samples is 5.1 nm for Δn ∼ 0.039. These results are in good agreement with simulations, which are 21.3 and 7.39 nm for the same index changes.

  16. National Uranium Resource Evaluation. Bibliographic index of Grand Junction office uranium reports

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, J.B.

    1981-05-01

    In October 1978, Mesa College entered into subcontract with Bendix Field Engineering Corporation (BFEC) to prepare a bibliographic index of the uranium raw materials reports issued by the Grand Junction Office of the US Department of Energy (DOE). Bendix, prime contractor to the Grand Junction Office, operates the Technical Library at the DOE facility. Since the early 1950s, approximately 2700 reports have been issued by the Grand Junction Office. These reports were the results of uranium investigations conducted by federal agencies and their subcontractors. The majority of the reports cover geology, mineralogy, and metallurgy of uranium and/or thorium. No single, complete list of these reports existed. The purpose of this subcontract was to compile a comprehensive index to these reports. The Mesa College geology faculty worked with the BFEC and DOE staffs to develop the format for the index. Undergraduate geology students from Mesa compiled a master record sheet for each report. All reports issued up to January 1, 1979 were included in the bibliography. The bibliography is in preliminary, unedited form. It is being open-filed at this time, on microfiche, to make the information available to the public on a timely basis. The bibliography is divided into a master record list arranged in alpha-numeric order by report identification number, with separate indices arranged by title, author, state and county, 1/sup 0/ x 2/sup 0/ NTMS quadrangle, key words, and exploration area.

  17. Zoned near-zero refractive index fishnet lens antenna: Steering millimeter waves

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pacheco-Peña, V. Orazbayev, B. Beaskoetxea, U. Beruete, M.; Navarro-Cía, M.

    2014-03-28

    A zoned fishnet metamaterial lens is designed, fabricated, and experimentally demonstrated at millimeter wavelengths to work as a negative near-zero refractive index lens suitable for compact lens antenna configurations. At the design frequency f = 56.7 GHz (λ{sub 0} = 5.29 mm), the zoned fishnet metamaterial lens, designed to have a focal length FL = 9λ{sub 0}, exhibits a refractive index n = −0.25. The focusing performance of the diffractive optical element is briefly compared with that of a non-zoned fishnet metamaterial lens and an isotropic homogeneous zoned lens made of a material with the same refractive index. Experimental and numerically-computed radiation diagrams of the fabricated zoned lens are presented and compared in detail with that of a simulated non-zoned lens. Simulation and experimental results are in good agreement, demonstrating an enhancement generated by the zoned lens of 10.7 dB, corresponding to a gain of 12.26 dB. Moreover, beam steering capability of the structure by shifting the feeder on the xz-plane is demonstrated.

  18. New Breast Cancer Recursive Partitioning Analysis Prognostic Index in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Brain Metastases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Niwinska, Anna; Murawska, Magdalena

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: The aim of the study was to present a new breast cancer recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) prognostic index for patients with newly diagnosed brain metastases as a guide in clinical decision making. Methods and Materials: A prospectively collected group of 441 consecutive patients with breast cancer and brain metastases treated between the years 2003 and 2009 was assessed. Prognostic factors significant for univariate analysis were included into RPA. Results: Three prognostic classes of a new breast cancer RPA prognostic index were selected. The median survival of patients within prognostic Classes I, II, and III was 29, 9, and 2.4 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). Class I included patients with one or two brain metastases, without extracranial disease or with controlled extracranial disease, and with Karnofsky performance status (KPS) of 100. Class III included patients with multiple brain metastases with KPS of {<=}60. Class II included all other cases. Conclusions: The breast cancer RPA prognostic index is an easy and valuable tool for use in clinical practice. It can select patients who require aggressive treatment and those in whom whole-brain radiotherapy or symptomatic therapy is the most reasonable option. An individual approach is required for patients from prognostic Class II.

  19. Systematic Comparison of Operating Reserve Methodologies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ibanez, E.; Krad, I.; Ela, E.

    2014-04-01

    Operating reserve requirements are a key component of modern power systems, and they contribute to maintaining reliable operations with minimum economic impact. No universal method exists for determining reserve requirements, thus there is a need for a thorough study and performance comparison of the different existing methodologies. Increasing penetrations of variable generation (VG) on electric power systems are posed to increase system uncertainty and variability, thus the need for additional reserve also increases. This paper presents background information on operating reserve and its relationship to VG. A consistent comparison of three methodologies to calculate regulating and flexibility reserve in systems with VG is performed.

  20. N Reactor RELAP5 model benchmark comparisons

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fletcher, C.D.; Bolander, M.A.

    1988-02-01

    This report documents work performed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) in support of Westinghouse Hanford Company safety analyses for the N Reactor. The portion of the work reported here includes comparisons of RELAP5/MOD2-calculated data with measured plant data for: (1) a plant trip reactor transient from full power operation; and (2) a hot dump test performed prior to plant startup. These qualitative comparisons are valuable because they provide an indication of the capabilities of the RELAP5/MOD2 code to simulate operational and blowdonw transients in the N Reactor. 9 refs., 12 figs., 4 tabs.