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1

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

2

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0

3

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Dean, Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Mira Farka, Ph.D. -- Co-Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Associate Professor

de Lijser, Peter

4

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Forecast Comparisons Table 32. Forecasts of annual average economic growth, 2003-2025 Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2003-2009 2003-2014 2003-2025 AEO2004 3.5 3.2 3.0 AEO2005 Reference 3.4 3.3 3.1 Low growth 2.9 2.8 2.5 High growth 4.1 3.9 3.6 GII 3.4 3.2 3.1 OMB 3.6 NA NA CBO 3.5 3.1 NA OEF 3.5 3.5 NA Only one other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2005. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as other forecasts that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy

5

Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 Only GII produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2006. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal, are compared here with the AEO2006 projections. Economic Growth In the AEO2006 reference case, the projected growth in real GDP, based on 2000 chain-weighted dollars, is 3.0 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 (Table 19). For the period from 2004 to 2025, real GDP growth in the AEO2006 reference case is similar to the average annual growth projected in AEO2005. The AEO2006 projections of economic growth are based on the August short-term forecast of GII, extended by EIA through 2030 and modified to reflect EIA’s view on energy prices, demand, and production.

6

Three Essays on Energy Economics and Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This dissertation contains three independent essays relating energy economics. The first essay investigates price asymmetry of diesel in South Korea by using the error correction model. Analyzing weekly market prices in the pass-through of crude oil...

Shin, Yoon Sung

2012-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

7

CSUF Economic Outlook and Forecasts MidYear Update -April 2013  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF Economic Outlook and Forecasts MidYear Update - April 2013 Anil Puri & Mira Farka Mihaylo College of Business and Economics California State University, Fullerton U.S. Economic Outlook to the forecast and a are-up in the region can easily derail the global economic recovery. Nonetheless

de Lijser, Peter

8

Where can I find free economic forecasts? Economic forecasts have become an integral part of business and individual investment decisions. Economic  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, the Conference Board provides short term (quarterly and annual) forecasts for real GDP, real consumer spending include (among others): GDP and real GDP, price indices for GDP and consumer spending, unemployment are projections of economic activity including GDP growth. These reports can be found on-line at: http

Johnson, Eric E.

9

Economic Valuation of a New Meteorological Information Service: Conjoint Analysis for a Pollen Forecast System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims to investigate the publics preferences for and quantitatively measure the economic value of a pollen forecast system, a new meteorological information service, in South Korea. To directly measure the economic value of the pollen ...

Joong-Woo Lee; Jinyong Jang; Kwang-Kun Ko; Youngsang Cho

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

U.S. Economic Outlook and Forecasts Surviving the Recovery: Shaken, and Stirred...  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

5 U.S. Economic Outlook and Forecasts Surviving the Recovery: Shaken, and Stirred... "It ain't over litany of bleak macro data and gloomy economic projec- tions. Indeed, for most sectors and most folks economic activity fell by an astounding -5.1% during the recession -- a much deeper collapse than

de Lijser, Peter

11

Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, such as over- supply or scarcity, from historical data using computational methods to construct price density. The agent can use this information to make both tactical decisions such as pricing and strategic decisions historical data and identified from observable data. We outline how to identify regimes and forecast regime

Ketter, Wolfgang

12

Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

historical data using computational methods to construct price density functions. We discuss how tactical decisions such as pricing and strategic decisions such as product mix and production planning. We call these patterns economic regimes. We show how such patterns can be learned from historical data

Ketter, Wolfgang

13

Weather satellites and the economic value of forecasts: evidence from the electric power industry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Data from weather satellites have become integral to the weather forecast process in the United States and abroad. Satellite data are used to derive improved forecasts for short-term routine weather, long-term climate change, and for predicting natural disasters. The resulting forecasts have saved lives, reduced weather-related economic losses, and improved the quality of life. Weather information routinely assists in managing resources more efficiently and reducing industrial operating costs. The electric energy industry in particular makes extensive use of weather information supplied by both government and commercial suppliers. Through direct purchases of weather data and information, and through participating in the increasing market for weather derivatives, this sector provides measurable indicators of the economic importance of weather information. Space weather in the form of magnetic disturbances caused by coronal mass ejections from the sun creates geomagnetically induced currents that disturb the electric power grid, sometimes causing significant economic impacts on electric power distribution. This paper examines the use of space-derived weather information on the U.S. electric power industry. It also explores issues that may impair the most optimum use of the information and reviews the longer-term opportunities for employing weather data acquired from satellites in future commercial and government activity.

Henry R. Hertzfeld; Ray A. Williamson; Avery Sen

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Long-term electricity demand forecasting for power system planning using economic, demographic and climatic variables  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The stochastic planning of power production overcomes the drawback of deterministic models by accounting for uncertainties in the parameters. Such planning accounts for demand uncertainties by using scenario sets and probability distributions. However, in previous literature, different scenarios were developed by either assigning arbitrary values or assuming certain percentages above or below a deterministic demand. Using forecasting techniques, reliable demand data can be obtained and inputted to the scenario set. This article focuses on the long-term forecasting of electricity demand using autoregressive, simple linear and multiple linear regression models. The resulting models using different forecasting techniques are compared through a number of statistical measures and the most accurate model was selected. Using Ontario's electricity demand as a case study, the annual energy, peak load and base load demand were forecasted up to the year 2025. In order to generate different scenarios, different ranges in the economic, demographic and climatic variables were used. [Received 16 October 2007; Revised 31 May 2008; Revised 25 October 2008; Accepted 1 November 2008

F. Chui; A. Elkamel; R. Surit; E. Croiset; P.L. Douglas

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA J, The University at Albany, 251 Fuller Rd, Albany, NY 12203, USA 3 University of Oldenburg, Institute of Physics for a half year period (summer 2007) at three different climates in the USA. ECMWF shows the best results

Perez, Richard R.

16

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

A comparison between a hydro-wind plant and wind speed forecasting using ARIMA models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper we will present a comparison between two options for harnessing wind power. We will first analyze the behaviour of a wind farm that goes to the electricity market having previously made a forecast of wind speed while accepting the deviation penalties that these may incur. Second we will study the possibility of the wind farm not going to the market individually but as part of a hydro-wind plant.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

19

Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the Department of Energy's Office of Industrial Technologies, EIA extracted energy use infonnation from the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) - 2000 (8) for each of the seven # The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute...-6, 2000 NEMS The NEMS industrial module is the official forecasting model for EIA and thus the Department of Energy. For this reason, the energy prices and output forecasts used to drive the ITEMS model were taken from EIA's AEO 2000. Understanding...

Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

20

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

22

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

23

A Comparison of Measures-Oriented and Distributions-Oriented Approaches to Forecast Verification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors have carried out verification of 590 1224-h high-temperature forecasts from numerical guidance products and human forecasters for Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, using both a measures-oriented verification scheme and a distributions-...

Harold E. Brooks; Charles A. Doswell III

1996-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Comparison of Airbus, Boeing, Rolls-Royce and AVITAS market forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Forecasts of future world demand for commercial aircraft are published fairly regularly by Airbus and Boeing. Other players in the aviation business, Rolls Royce and AVITAS, have also published forecasts in the past year. This article analyses and compares the methods used and assumptions made by the several forecasters. It concludes that there are wide areas of similarity in the approaches used and highlights the most significant area of divergence.

Ralph Anker

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Comparison of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US, Canada and Europe  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This article combines and discusses three independent validations of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) multi-day forecast models that were conducted in the US, Canada and Europe. All forecast models are based directly or indirectly on numerical weather prediction (NWP). Two models are common to the three validation efforts the ECMWF global model and the GFS-driven WRF mesoscale model and allow general observations: (1) the GFS-based WRF- model forecasts do not perform as well as global forecast-based approaches such as ECMWF and (2) the simple averaging of models output tends to perform better than individual models.

Richard Perez; Elke Lorenz; Sophie Pelland; Mark Beauharnois; Glenn Van Knowe; Karl Hemker Jr.; Detlev Heinemann; Jan Remund; Stefan C. Mller; Wolfgang Traunmller; Gerald Steinmauer; David Pozo; Jose A. Ruiz-Arias; Vicente Lara-Fanego; Lourdes Ramirez-Santigosa; Martin Gaston-Romero; Luis M. Pomares

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

Economic Comparison of LNT Versus Urea SCR for Light-Duty Diesel...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Comparison of LNT Versus Urea SCR for Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles in the U.S. Market Economic Comparison of LNT Versus Urea SCR for Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles in the U.S. Market...

27

Testing Competing Precipitation Forecasts Accurately and Efficiently: The Spatial Prediction Comparison Test  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Which model is best? Many challenges exist when testing competing forecast models, especially for those with high spatial resolution. Spatial correlation, double penalties, and small-scale errors are just a few such challenges. Many new methods ...

Eric Gilleland

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Comparison of longterm forecasting of JuneAugust rainfall over changjianghuaihe valley  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In terms of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) established is a long-term prediction model for JuneAugust flood/drought in the Changjiang-Huaihe Basins and a regression forecasting expression is formulated wi...

Jin Long; Luo Ying; Lin Zhenshan

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

A COMPARISON OF CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL QUANTITIES WITH FORECASTS FROM CLOUD PREDICTION MODELS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program, Bethesda, MD March 15-19, 2010 Environmental Sciences Department/Atmospheric Plains (SGP) site. Cloud forecasts generated by the models are compared with cloud microphysical and radiosonde) are used to derive the cloud microphysical quantities: ice water content, liquid water content

30

Comparison of Various Deterministic Forecasting Techniques in Shale Gas Reservoirs with Emphasis on the Duong Method  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for Boundary dominated flow (BDF) wells but it has been observed in shale reservoirs the predominant flow regime is transient flow. Therefore it was imperative to develop newer models to match and forecast transient flow regimes. The SEDM/SEPD, the Duong model...

Joshi, Krunal Jaykant

2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

31

Forecasting with Historical Data or Process Knowledge under Misspecification: A Comparison  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

States' ban on nuclear testing, a nuclear engineer is faced with lack of data, and hence must rely of nuclear stockpiles, or the climate next century, forecasting on all scales has become a crucial part engineer may use historical traffic volume data to predict upcoming flow; a nuclear scientist may use

Steinwart, Ingo

32

Southern California Leading EconomicSouthern California Leading EconomicSouthern California Leading EconomicSouthern California Leading Economic IndicatorIndicatorIndicatorIndicator Aug 2013 Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting (CEAF), California  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

U.S. economic activity, often measured by real GDP growth, is expected to increase in the next three and Real GDP -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 09.2 09.3 09.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 12.1 12.2 12). The SC indicator currently projects an increase in Southern California economic activity in the next

de Lijser, Peter

33

Economic Analysis and Comparison of Waste Water Resource Heat Pump Heating and Air-Conditioning System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ICEBO2006, Shenzhen, China Renewable Energy Resources and a Greener Future, Vol.VIII-8-1 Economic Analysis and Comparison of Waste Water Resource Heat Pump Heating and Air-conditioning System Chunlei Zhang Suilin Wang Hongbing Chen...

Zhang, C.; Wang, S.; Chen, H.; Shi, Y.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Forecasting wireless communication technologies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The purpose of the paper is to present a formal comparison of a variety of multiple regression models in technology forecasting for wireless communication. We compare results obtained from multiple regression models to determine whether they provide a superior fitting and forecasting performance. Both techniques predict the year of wireless communication technology introduction from the first (1G) to fourth (4G) generations. This paper intends to identify the key parameters impacting the growth of wireless communications. The comparison of technology forecasting approaches benefits future researchers and practitioners when developing a prediction of future wireless communication technologies. The items of focus will be to understand the relationship between variable selection and model fit. Because the forecasting error was successfully reduced from previous approaches, the quadratic regression methodology is applied to the forecasting of future technology commercialisation. In this study, the data will show that the quadratic regression forecasting technique provides a better fit to the curve.

Sabrina Patino; Jisun Kim; Tugrul U. Daim

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

typical of an advanced combined cycle gas turbine), the $comparison between a combined cycle gas turbine and a fixed-

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

typical of an advanced combined cycle gas turbine), the $comparison between a combined cycle gas turbine and a fixed-

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

comparison between a combined cycle gas turbine and a fixed-typical of an advanced combined cycle gas turbine), the $

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

An Economic Comparison of Conventional and Narrow-Row Cotton Production--Southern Plains of Texas.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

JUN ~ 3 1977 Texas A&M University June 19' An Economic Comparison of Coventional and Narrow-Row -- Cotton Production-Southern High Plains of Texas The Texas Agricultural Experiment Station, J. E. Miller, Director' The Texas A&M University... interest in adopting narrow-row sys tems for cotton production in the Southern High Plains of Texas prompted an economic comparison of these new systems with conventional production sys tems for cotton. Previous experimental research in dicated...

Young, Kenneth B.; Adams, James R.

1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-km grid-spacing (ENS4) and a 15-member, 20-km grid-spacing (ENS20) Weather Research and Forecasting of various precipitation skill metrics for probabilistic and deterministic forecasts reveals that ENS4 Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Molteni et al. 1996) Ensemble Prediction System

Xue, Ming

40

RACORO Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Daniel Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma ARM AAF Wiki page Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Communication of uncertainty in temperature forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We used experimental economics to test whether undergraduate students presented with a temperature forecast with uncertainty information in a table and bar graph format were able to use the extra information to interpret a given forecast. ...

Pricilla Marimo; Todd R. Kaplan; Ken Mylne; Martin Sharpe

42

Draft forecast of the final report for the comparison to 40 CFR Part 191, Subpart B, for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The United States Department of Energy is planning to dispose of transuranic wastes, which have been generated by defense programs, at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. The WIPP Project will assess compliance with the requirements of the United States Environmental Protection Agency. This report forecasts the planned 1992 document, Comparison to 40 CFR, Part 191, Subpart B, for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). 130 refs., 36 figs., 11 tabs.

Bertram-Howery, S.G.; Marietta, M.G.; Anderson, D.R.; Gomez, L.S.; Rechard, R.P. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Brinster, K.F.; Guzowski, R.V. (Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

1989-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Submitted to Weather and Forecasting in October 2008, Accepted in January 2009 * Corresponding author) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model ensemble, which cover a similar domain over the central-convection resolution (PCR) ensembles. Computation of various precipitation skill metrics for probabilistic

Droegemeier, Kelvin K.

44

Economic comparison of a well-head geothermal power plant and a traditional one  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The objective of this paper was to do an economic comparison between the traditional approach to geothermal projects and a well-head method, where smaller power plants were installed on each well to considerably reduce the time until energy production begins. The two methods were compared in a hypothetical steamfield, based on their NPV and net power production. The comparison showed that wellhead power plants benefit geothermal projects by increasing the power output and NPV by as much as 5% and 16% respectively, depending on how early they can start production and the rate of installation.

Carlos Atli Crdova Geirdal; Maria S. Gudjonsdottir; Pall Jensson

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Forecasting aggregate demand: Analytical comparison of top-down and bottom-up approaches in a multivariate exponential smoothing framework  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting aggregate demand represents a crucial aspect in all industrial sectors. In this paper, we provide the analytical prediction properties of top-down (TD) and bottom-up (BU) approaches when forecasting the aggregate demand using a multivariate exponential smoothing as demand planning framework. We extend and generalize the results achieved by Widiarta et al. (2009) by employing an unrestricted multivariate framework allowing for interdependency between its variables. Moreover, we establish the necessary and sufficient condition for the equality of mean squared errors (MSEs) of the two approaches. We show that the condition for the equality of \\{MSEs\\} holds even when the moving average parameters of the individual components are not identical. In addition, we show that the relative forecasting accuracy of TD and BU depends on the parametric structure of the underlying framework. Simulation results confirm our theoretical findings. Indeed, the ranking of TD and BU forecasts is led by the parametric structure of the underlying data generation process, regardless of possible misspecification issues.

Giacomo Sbrana; Andrea Silvestrini

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

46

Wind pumps for irrigating greenhouse crops: Comparison in different socio-economical frameworks  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A simple methodology was used to compare the economic feasibility of wind pump technology, solar photovoltaic pumping, diesel generators, and connection to the electrical grid to provide energy for pumping irrigation water in commercial greenhouses in Spain, Cuba and Pakistan (countries with different developmental backgrounds). The analysis took into account wind resources, distance to the grid, water storage tank volume requirements, and planting dates. Comparisons were made in terms of the levelised cost of energy associated with each system. For all three countries, if a grid connection was already in place, installing wind pumps would be economically unwise. Where no grid connection exists, the distance to the grid and the wind resource available are key factors to be taken into consideration when deciding between options: a 10% increase in the average wind speed is equivalent to a 20% reduction in the distance to the grid in terms of costs return. Finally, the water elevation has a major influence on the economic feasibility of wind pump technology, much more than, for example, on solar photovoltaic pumping technology. The results reveal that, generally, the critical factors to consider when making energy management decisions differ depending between countries. In Spain, the proximity of the electrical grid makes the connection to it the best option. In Pakistan, scarce wind resources are a serious limiting factor. Cuba, however, has good wind resources; water elevation, distance to the grid and water storage needed are the critical factors when determining the economic feasibility of wind pumping there.

Rodrigo Daz-Mndez; Adnan Rasheed; Manuel Peilln; Alicia Perdigones; Ral Snchez; Ana M. Tarquis; Jos L. Garca-Fernndez

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

An economic comparison and evaluation of two geothermal district heating systems for advanced exergoeconomic analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper refers to an economic comparison and evaluation of two geothermal district heating systems (GDHSs) under same reference state condition and mechanic/economic parameters by using an advanced exergoeconomic analysis. In this analysis, costs of investment and exergy destruction of each component for the thermal systems such as the Afyon and Sarayky \\{GDHSs\\} were split into endogenous/exogenous and unavoidable/avoidable parts, and were also compared with each other for the first time. The results obtained show that the advanced exergoeconomic analysis makes the information more accurate and useful, and supplies additional information that cannot be provided by the conversional analysis. Furthermore, the Afyon GDHS can be made more cost effectiveness, removing the system components irreversibilities, technical-economic limitations, and poorly chosen manufacturing methods, according to the Sarayky GDHS. The majority of the components in the Sarayky GDHS are to operate more economically than those in the Afyon GDHS. As a result, the usefulness of this method was clearly demonstrated comparing both the systems.

P?nar Keeba?; Harun Gkgedik; Mehmet Ali Alkan; Ali Keeba?

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Economic Comparison of Heating Facilities: 75 Unit Apartment, Stewart-Lennox Area, Klamath Falls, Oregon.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The apartment building would consist of about 75 units of about 900 square feet each. Also included would be an outdoor swimming pool and an enclosed activity wing of about 11,000 square feet. Though no deep geothermal wells have been drilled in the immediate area, opinions were obtained that 150/sup 0/F water would be present at 2500 feet and 80/sup 0/F water at about 1000 feet. Based on this information the comparative economics of using geothermal as a heat source versus conventional electrical heating was developed. The purpose of this comparison is to determine if there is economic incentive for the expenditure necessary to define and prove the extent of the geothermal resource. Four systems were compared, each would provide space heating, supply domestic hot water, and heat the swimming pool. A brief description of each of the systems is given. (MHR)

Not Available

1980-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

49

Technical and economic comparison of steam-injected versus combined- cycle retrofits on FT-4 engines  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The study discusses the findings of a conceptual site-specific investigation of the technical and economic aspects of converting the TPM FT4 simple cycle combustion turbines into either the steam injected gas turbine (SIGT) cycle or the combined cycle (CC). It describes the selection of the best retrofit alternatives through the evaluation and data analysis of a large number of sites and units at two utilities. Conceptual designs are performed on the best retrofit alternatives. Flow diagrams and general arrangement drawings are developed for various configurations utilizing drum type and once-through type multipressure heat recovery steam generators. Auxiliary power consumption and capital cost estimates are presented together with an economic evaluation and comparison of the retrofit alternatives. While the investigation is performed utilizing the FT4 combustion turbines, the steps presented in the report may be used as a guide for investigating the conversion of other gas turbines to either cycle at any utility site.

Silaghy, F.J. (Burns and Roe, Inc., Oradell, NJ (United States))

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

50

Comparison between pulsed MIG and short-circuit MAG on economical aspects for structural building  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this work is presented a comparison between Pulsed MIG and Short-circuit MAG processes concerning economical and operational aspects. A systematic experimental procedure was carried-out so that the response to variation of travel speed, mean current and contact tip-to-work distance could be assessed within the same range. The operational envelopes were built taking into account lack of fusion and lack of penetration. Deposition rate and deposition efficiency were raised to evaluate productivity. The results showed that short-circuit MAG has a broader operational envelop than Pulsed MIG, but the latter, despite the narrower range, provides more productivity.

Scotti, A.; Pereira, W.A. [Univ. Federal de Uberlandia, Minas Gerais (Brazil). Mechanical Engineering Dept.

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

52

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

Gilleland, Eric

53

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

54

Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

A comparative assessment of the economics of plutonium disposition including comparison with other nuclear fuel cycles  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

DOE has been evaluating three technologies for the disposition of approximately 50 metric tons of surplus plutonium from defense-related programs: reactors, immobilization, and deep boreholes. As part of the process supporting an early CY 1997 Record of Decision (ROD), a comprehensive assessment of technical viability, cost, and schedule has been conducted. Oak Ridge National Laboratory has managed and coordinated the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment effort for this program. This paper discusses the economic analysis methodology and the results prior to ROD. Other objectives of the paper are to discuss major technical and economic issues that impact plutonium disposition cost and schedule. Also to compare the economics of a once-through weapons-derived MOX nuclear fuel cycle to other fuel cycles, such as those utilizing spent fuel reprocessing. To evaluate the economics of these technologies on an equitable basis, a set of cost estimating guidelines and a common cost-estimating format were utilized by all three technology teams. This paper also includes the major economic analysis assumptions and the comparative constant-dollar and discounted-dollar LCCs.

Williams, K.A.; Miller, J.W.; Reid, R.L.

1997-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

ECONOMIC COMPARISON OF MHD EQUILIBRIUM OPTIONS FOR ADVANCED STEADY STATE TOKAMAK POWER PLANTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, plant thermal-to- electric power conversion efficiency) are not varied, and economic factors (unit costs at San Diego, Fusion Energy Research Program, San Diego, California United States of America ABSTRACT (aspect ratio, plasma elongation and triangularity) is fixed, engi- neering features (neutron energy

Najmabadi, Farrokh

58

Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 1025% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page; Nelson, Gerald C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gurgel, Angelo; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; von Lampe, Martin; Wise, Marshall A.; Blanc, Elodie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Valin, Hugo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

Economic Comparison of Automobiles with Electric and with Combustion Engines: An Analytical Study  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Automobiles with electric motor are becoming increasingly attractive alternative to the car with combustion engine, considering the effects on the environment as well as economic factors such as gradual increasing price of fluid fossil fuels and others. The European Union and therefore all member countries try to produce the least possible impact of activities on the environment in which we live. Transport is a sector of the national economy, which largely affects the environment. An effort to reduce the impact of road transport is therefore logical. The actual trend is the promotion of electric cars and the gradual replacement of combustion vehicles with electro mobiles. The aim of the paper is to analyze the impact of production, operation and fluidation of automobiles with electric and with combustion engines on the environment and economic interpretation of their effects on the economy. Direct and indirect effects of individual automobile types on the environment, with emphasis on air pollution, are described in the paper. The economic analysis is aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of investment comparing electric powered and combustion engine powered cars, considering the use by individuals and companies.

Rastislav Rajnoha; Martin Jankovsk; Martina Merkov

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Expert Panel: Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes March 1999 Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes September 25-26, 1998 Arlington, Virginia The Expert Panel ............................................................................................. Page 1 Charge To The Expert Panel........................................................................... Page 2 Executive Summary......................................................................................... Page 3 Introduction ...................................................................................................... Page 4 Rationale.......................................................................................................... Page 6 Economic Analysis...........................................................................................

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

62

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, NEW ZEALAND SOME NEW APPROACHES TO FORECASTING THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY: A STUDY OF CALIFORNIAN MARKET of Business and Economics University of Canterbury Private Bag 4800, Christchurch New Zealand #12;WORKING PAPER No. 05/2008 SOME NEW APPROACHES TO FORECASTING THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY: A STUDY OF CALIFORNIAN

Hickman, Mark

63

Economic comparison of ORC (Organic Rankine cycle) processes at different scales  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The utilization of low temperature heat sources, e.g. waste heat, for power generation in Organic Rankine Cycles has become more and more important in recent decades. In this work, exhaust gas as the heat transfer medium is considered. Five organic working fluids in three cycle designs at three different scales are investigated in Aspen Plus V7.3. Additionally, two different constraints have been applied to the exhaust gas temperature: A minimum of 180C in order to avoid the acid dew point and a minimal temperature approach, where the pinch point in the exhaust gas heat exchanger is fixed at 10K. The investigated turbine-bleeding process with regenerative pre-heating benefits higher exhaust gas outlet temperatures for further combined heat and power applications in conjunction with enhanced system performances. Also noteworthy is the lower total heat exchanger area of the process compared to the reference designs. Economic analyses are carried out in order to outline the economic merits of the turbine-bleeding cycle.

Dominik Meinel; Christoph Wieland; Hartmut Spliethoff

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Hydrogen as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles: A technical and economic comparison  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

All fuel cells currently being developed for near term use in vehicles require hydrogen as a fuel. Hydrogen can be stored directly or produced onboard the vehicle by reforming methanol, ethanol or hydrocarbon fuels derived from crude oil (e.g., Diesel, gasoline or middle distillates). The vehicle design is simpler with direct hydrogen storage, but requires developing a more complex refueling infrastructure. In this paper, the authors compare three leading options for fuel storage onboard fuel cell vehicles: compressed gas hydrogen storage; onboard steam reforming of methanol; onboard partial oxidation (POX) of hydrocarbon fuels derived from crude oil. Equilibrium, kinetic and heat integrated system (ASPEN) models have been developed to estimate the performance of onboard steam reforming and POX fuel processors. These results have been incorporated into a fuel cell vehicle model, allowing us to compare the vehicle performance, fuel economy, weight, and cost for various fuel storage choices and driving cycles. A range of technical and economic parameters were considered. The infrastructure requirements are also compared for gaseous hydrogen, methanol and hydrocarbon fuels from crude oil, including the added costs of fuel production, storage, distribution and refueling stations. Considering both vehicle and infrastructure issues, the authors compare hydrogen to other fuel cell vehicle fuels. Technical and economic goals for fuel cell vehicle and hydrogen technologies are discussed. Potential roles for hydrogen in the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles are sketched.

Ogden, J.; Steinbugler, M.; Kreutz, T. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States). Center for Energy and Environmental Studies

1997-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

65

Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

A suite of metrics for assessing the performance of solar power forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task because of the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Inaccurate forecasts can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. One of the key challenges is the unavailability of a consistent and robust set of metrics to measure the accuracy of a solar forecast. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, and applications) that were developed as part of the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiatives efforts to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting. In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design-of-experiments methodology in conjunction with response surface, sensitivity analysis, and nonparametric statistical testing methods. The three types of forecasting improvements are (i) uniform forecasting improvements when there is not a ramp, (ii) ramp forecasting magnitude improvements, and (iii) ramp forecasting threshold changes. Day-ahead and 1-hour-ahead forecasts for both simulated and actual solar power plants are analyzed. The results show that the proposed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts and assess the economic and reliability impacts of improved solar forecasting. Sensitivity analysis results show that (i) all proposed metrics are suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with uniform forecasting improvements, and (ii) the metrics of skewness, kurtosis, and Rnyi entropy are specifically suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with ramp forecasting improvements and a ramp forecasting threshold.

Jie Zhang; Anthony Florita; Bri-Mathias Hodge; Siyuan Lu; Hendrik F. Hamann; Venkat Banunarayanan; Anna M. Brockway

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with a projected real increase of 6.1 percent; Hospitality and Leisure Services with a projected real increase of 4.2 percent; and Educational and Heath Services with a projected real increase of 3.8 percent. · For 2012. The sectors with the strongest expected growth are Educational and Health Services with a projected real

Chen, Keh-Hsun

68

Wind Power Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email List Self Supplied Balancing Reserves Dynamic...

69

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

Wind Power Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has configured a Wind Power Forecasting System for Xcel Energy that integrates high resolution and ensemble...

Sue Ellen Haupt; William P. Mahoney; Keith Parks

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

71

Energy Demand Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents alternative approaches used in forecasting energy demand and discusses their pros and cons. It... Chaps. 3 and 4 ...

S. C. Bhattacharyya

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

Technical and economical system comparison of photovoltaic and concentrating solar thermal power systems depending on annual global irradiation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Concentrating solar thermal power and photovoltaics are two major technologies for converting sunlight to electricity. Variations of the annual solar irradiation depending on the site influence their annual efficiency, specific output and electricity generation cost. Detailed technical and economical analyses performed with computer simulations point out differences of solar thermal parabolic trough power plants, non-tracked and two-axis-tracked PV systems. Therefore, 61 sites in Europe and North Africa covering a global annual irradiation range from 923 to 2438 kWh/m2a have been examined. Simulation results are usable irradiation by the systems, specific annual system output and levelled electricity cost. Cost assumptions are made for today's cost and expected cost in 10 years considering different progress ratios. This will lead to a cost reduction by 50% for PV systems and by 40% for solar thermal power plants. The simulation results show where are optimal regions for installing solar thermal trough and tracked PV systems in comparison to non-tracked PV. For low irradiation values the annual output of solar thermal systems is much lower than of PV systems. On the other hand, for high irradiations solar thermal systems provide the best-cost solution even when considering higher cost reduction factors for PV in the next decade. Electricity generation cost much below 10 Eurocents per kWh for solar thermal systems and about 12 Eurocents/kWh for PV can be expected in 10 years in North Africa.

Volker Quaschning

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

Techno-economic analysis of the coal-to-olefins process in comparison with the oil-to-olefins process  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Olefins are one of the most important oil derivatives widely used in industry. To reduce the dependence of olefins industry on oil, China is increasing the production of olefins from alternative energy resources, especially from coal. This study is concerned with the opportunities and obstacles of coal-to-olefins development, and focuses on making an overall techno-economic analysis of a coal-to-olefins plant with the capacity of 0.7Mt/a olefins. Comparison is made with a 1.5Mt/a oil-to-olefins plant based on three criteria including energy efficiency, capital investment, and product cost. It was found that the coal-based olefins process show prominent advantage in product cost because of the low price of its feedstock. However, it suffers from the limitations of higher capital investment, lower energy efficiency, and higher emissions. The effects of production scale, raw material price, and carbon tax were varied for the two production routes, and thus the operational regions were found for the coal-to-olefins process to be competitive.

Dong Xiang; Yu Qian; Yi Man; Siyu Yang

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This project studied and analyzed Electronic Controls, Inc.s forecasting process for three high-demand products. In addition, alternative forecasting methods were developed to compare to the current forecast method. The ...

Balandran, Juan

2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

75

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

76

CAPP 2010 Forecast.indd  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecast, Markets & Pipelines 1 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Pipelines June 2010 2 CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCERS Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by the...

77

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast accuracy. However, no studies have been reported, the application of electricity market price forecasts to short-term operation scheduling of two typical

Cañizares, Claudio A.

78

China's Present Situation of Coal Consumption and Future Coal Demand Forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This article analyzes China's coal consumption changes since 1991 and proportion change of coal consumption to total energy consumption. It is argued that power, iron and steel, construction material, and chemical industries are the four major coal consumption industries, which account for 85% of total coal consumption in 2005. Considering energy consumption composition characteristics of these four industries, major coal demand determinants, potentials of future energy efficiency improvement, and structural changes, etc., this article makes a forecast of 2010s and 2020s domestic coal demand in these four industries. In addition, considering such relevant factors as our country's future economic growth rate and energy saving target, it forecasts future energy demands, using per unit GDP energy consumption method and energy elasticity coefficient method as well. Then it uses other institution's results about future primary energy demand, excluding primary coal demand, for reference, and forecasts coal demands in 2010 and 2020 indirectly. After results comparison between these two methods, it is believed that coal demands in 2010 might be 26202850 million tons and in 2020 might be 30903490 million tons, in which, coal used in power generation is still the driven force of coal demand growth.

Wang Yan; Li Jingwen

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements.

80

Economics Undergraduate BSc Economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economics Undergraduate BSc Economics BSc Economics and Politics #12;www.bath.ac.uk/economics Welcome to the Department of Economics The Department has a strong international research reputation in mainstream economics. Our teaching is internationally respected and our students are in demand by employers

Burton, Geoffrey R.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Economics Postgraduate MSc Economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economics Postgraduate MSc Economics MSc Economics & Finance MSc International Money & Banking #12;www.bath.ac.uk/economics Welcome to the Department of Economics The Department offers a range. The Department has a strong international research reputation in mainstream economics. Our teaching and research

Burton, Geoffrey R.

82

Forecast of geothermal drilling activity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The numbers of each type of geothermal well expected to be drilled in the United States for each 5-year period to 2000 AD are specified. Forecasts of the growth of geothermally supplied electric power and direct heat uses are presented. The different types of geothermal wells needed to support the forecasted capacity are quantified, including differentiation of the number of wells to be drilled at each major geothermal resource for electric power production. The rate of growth of electric capacity at geothermal resource areas is expected to be 15 to 25% per year (after an initial critical size is reached) until natural or economic limits are approached. Five resource areas in the United States should grow to significant capacity by the end of the century (The Geysers; Imperial Valley; Valles Caldera, NM; Roosevelt Hot Springs, UT; and northern Nevada). About 3800 geothermal wells are expected to be drilled in support of all electric power projects in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD. Half of the wells are expected to be drilled in the Imperial Valley. The Geysers area is expected to retain most of the drilling activity for the next 5 years. By the 1990's, the Imperial Valley is expected to contain most of the drilling activity.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

Telecommunications Networks Planning and Evaluation with Techno-Economic Criteria  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Telecommunications Networks Planning and Evaluation with Techno-Economic Criteria Dimitris Katsianis Department of Informatics and Telecommunications, University of Athens Panepistimiopolis Ilissia: Techno-economic Analysis, Telecommunications, Demand Forecast, Real Options, Game Theory, Investments

Kouroupetroglou, Georgios

84

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Comparing Forecast Skill  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A basic question in forecasting is whether one prediction system is more skillful than another. Some commonly used statistical significance tests cannot answer this question correctly if the skills are computed on a common period or using a common ...

Timothy DelSole; Michael K. Tippett

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

Economic analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

None

1980-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

Forecasting the monthly volume of orders for southern pine lumber - an econometric model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to measure various aspects of the California redwood lumber industry. The first sought to explain the economic struc- ture of the short-run market for redwood lumber by preparing short-range forecasts of price, new orders, shipments, produc- tion, stocks... regression coefficients (20) . The second study was directed at developing a short-run forecast of new orders for redwood lumber (21) . Several forecasting techniques were developed, but econometrics, i. e. , multiple regression analysis, provided...

Jackson, Ben Douglas

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

88

Deep Placement Gel Bank as an Improved Oil Recovery Process: Modeling, Economic Analysis and Comparison to Polymer Flooding  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

have conducted relevant literature review about the development, design, modeling and economics of the enhanced oil recovery methods. Schlumberger's Eclipse simulator software has been used for modeling purposes. Modeling runs have demonstrated...

Seyidov, Murad

2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

89

Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production.

Jianzhou Wang; Yao Dong; Jie Wu; Ren Mu; He Jiang

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

Application of Artificial Neural Network Forecasts to Predict Fog at Canberra International Airport  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The occurrence of fog can significantly impact air transport operations, and plays an important role in aviation safety. The economic value of aviation forecasts for Sydney Airport alone in 1993 was estimated at $6.8 million (Australian dollars) ...

Dustin Fabbian; Richard de Dear; Stephen Lellyett

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

Sandia National Laboratories: solar forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

92

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Rate Forecasts 19 5. EIA Forecast: Regional Coal Production 22 6. Wood Mackenzie Forecast: W.V. Steam to data currently published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), coal production in the state in this report calls for state production to decline by 11.3 percent in 2009 to 140.2 million tons. During

Mohaghegh, Shahab

93

Economic comparison between coal-fired and liquefied natural gas combined cycle power plants considering carbon tax: Korean case  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Economic growth is main cause of environmental pollution and has been identified as a big threat to sustainable development. Considering the enormous role of electricity in the national economy, it is essential to study the effect of environmental regulations on the electricity sector. This paper aims at making an economic analysis of Korea's power plant utilities by comparing electricity generation costs from coal-fired power plants and liquefied natural gas (LNG) combined cycle power plants with environmental consideration. In this study, the levelized generation cost method (LGCM) is used for comparing economic analysis of power plant utilities. Among the many pollutants discharged during electricity generation, this study principally deals with control costs related only to CO2 and NO2, since the control costs of SO2 and total suspended particulates (TSP) are already included in the construction cost of utilities. The cost of generating electricity in a coal-fired power plant is compared with such cost in a LNG combined cycle power plant. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis with computer simulation is performed according to fuel price, interest rates and carbon tax. In each case, these results can help in deciding which utility is economically justified in the circumstances of environmental regulations.

Suk-Jae Jeong; Kyung-Sup Kim; Jin-Won Park; Dong-soon Lim; Seung-moon Lee

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

95

On Sequential Probability Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

at the same time. [Probability, Statistics and Truth, MacMillan 1957. page 11] ... the collective "denotes a collective wherein the attribute of the single event is the number of points thrown. [Probability, StatisticsOn Sequential Probability Forecasting David A. Bessler 1 David A. Bessler Texas A&M University

McCarl, Bruce A.

96

Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

Hodge, B.

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

98

Energy Prices and California's Economic  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

on Energy Prices, Renewables, Efficiency, and Economic Growth: Scenarios and Forecasts, financial support and incentives to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy and decrease the use of fossil fuels. Aligned with that plan, the state legislature recently passed the nation's boldest commitment to renewable energy

Sadoulet, Elisabeth

99

Ecological-economic assessment of farms using multi-input multi-output models: life cycle assessment with multiple paired comparisons  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A multi-input multi-output model is developed by extending the life cycle assessment framework for analysing the relationship between agricultural production and environmental impacts. The inputs include farmland and materials such as fertilisers, pesticides and animals. The outputs are of two types: one is agro-economic production, such as crop yields, and the other is environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions. Additive and ratio models are defined for analysing the relationship between management intensity, land productivity and environmental impacts based on the farm model. After the framework of multiple paired comparisons is illustrated, the multi-input multi-output model is applied to rice farming in Japan. The results indicate that the additive and ratio models can be used for detecting the directions of changes. These models can be extended for analysing the land-use competition between food and energy production.

Kiyotada Hayashi

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Power generation plants with carbon capture and storage: A techno-economic comparison between coal combustion and gasification technologies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Worldwide energy production requirements could not be fully satisfied by nuclear and renewables sources. Therefore a sustainable use of fossil fuels (coal in particular) will be required for several decades. In this scenario, carbon capture and storage (CCS) represents a key solution to control the global warming reducing carbon dioxide emissions. The integration between CCS technologies and power generation plants currently needs a demonstration at commercial scale to reduce both technological risks and high capital and operating cost. This paper compares, from the technical and economic points of view, the performance of three coal-fired power generation technologies: (i) ultra-supercritical (USC) plant equipped with a conventional flue gas treatment (CGT) process, (ii) USC plant equipped with SNOX technology for a combined removal of sulphur and nitrogen oxides and (iii) integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant based on a slurry-feed entrained-flow gasifier. Each technology was analysed in its configurations without and with CO2 capture, referring to a commercial-scale of 1000MWth. Technical assessment was carried out by using simulation models implemented through Aspen Plus and Gate-Cycle tools, whereas economic assessment was performed through a properly developed simulation model. USC equipped with CGT systems shows an overall efficiency (43.7%) comparable to IGCC (43.9%), whereas introduction of SNOX technology increases USC efficiency up to 44.8%. Being the CCS energy penalties significantly higher for USC (about 10.5% points vs. about 8.5 for IGCC), the IGCC with CCS is more efficient (35.3%) than the corresponding CO2-free USC (34.2% for the SNOX-based configuration). Whereas, for the case study, USC is most profitable than IGCC (with a net present value, NPV, of 190M vs. 54M) for a conventional configuration, CO2-free IGCC shows a higher NPV (?673M) than USC (?711M). In any cases, the NPV of all the CO2-free configurations is strongly negative: this means that, with the current market conditions, the introduction of a CCS system cannot be economically justified without a significant incentive.

Vittorio Tola; Alberto Pettinau

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Forecasting and Modeling Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Geraly Amador Clayton Barrows Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Carolyn Davidson Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Aron Dobos Easan Drury Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Marissa Hummon Jennie Jorganson Jordan Macknick Trieu Mai David Mulcahy David Palchak Ben Sigrin Daniel Steinberg Patrick Sullivan Aaron Townsend Laura Vimmerstedt Andrew Weekley Owen Zinaman Photo of Clayton Barrows. Clayton Barrows Postdoctoral Researcher Areas of expertise Power system modeling Primary research interests Power and energy systems

103

Conceptual design of a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A site development forecasting system has been designed in response to the need to monitor and forecast the development of specific geothermal resource sites for electrical power generation and direct heat applications. The system is comprised of customized software, a site development status data base, and a set of complex geothermal project development schedules. The system would use site-specific development status information obtained from the Geothermal Progress Monitor and other data derived from economic and market penetration studies to produce reports on the rates of geothermal energy development, federal agency manpower requirements to ensure these developments, and capital expenditures and technical/laborer manpower required to achieve these developments.

Neham, E.A.; Entingh, D.J.

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

104

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

Ensemble Forecasts and their Verification  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· Ensemble forecast verification ­ Performance metrics: Brier Score, CRPSS · New concepts and developments of weather Sources: Insufficient spatial resolution, truncation errors in the dynamical equations

Maryland at College Park, University of

106

Probabilistic manpower forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- ing E. Results- Probabilistic Forecasting . 26 27 Z8 29 31 35 36 38 39 IV. CONCLUSIONS. V. GLOSSARY 42 44 APPENDICES REFERENCES 50 70 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Outline of Job-Probability Matrix Job-Probability Matrix. Possible... Outcomes of Job A Possible Outcomes of Jobs A and B 10 Possible Outcomes of Jobs A, B and C II LIST GF FIGURES Figure Page Binary Representation of Numbers 0 Through 7 12 First Cumulative Probability Table 14 3. Graph of Cumulative Probability vs...

Koonce, James Fitzhugh

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

Economic impacts study  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This is a progress report on the first phase of a project to measure the economic impacts of a rapidly changing U.S. target base. The purpose of the first phase is to designate and test the macroeconomic impact analysis model. Criteria were established for a decision-support model. Additional criteria were defined for an interactive macroeconomic impact analysis model. After a review of several models, the Economic Impact Forecast System model of the U.S. Army Construction Research Laboratory was selected as the appropriate input-output tool that can address local and regional economic analysis. The model was applied to five test cases to demonstrate its utility and define possible revisions to meet project criteria. A plan for EIFS access was defined at three levels. Objectives and tasks for scenario refinement are proposed.

Brunsen, W.; Worley, W.; Frost, E.

1988-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

109

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13T23:59:59.000Z

110

Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Logos of the University of...

111

Forecasting with adaptive extended exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Much of product level forecasting is based upon time series techniques. However, traditional time series forecasting techniques have offered either smoothing constant adaptability or consideration of various t...

John T. Mentzer Ph.D.

112

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 ...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in...

114

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

115

Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

2008-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

116

Correcting and combining time series forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Combined forecasters have been in the vanguard of stochastic time series modeling. In this way it has been usual to suppose that each single model generates a residual or prediction error like a white noise. However, mostly because of disturbances not ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks hybrid systems, Linear combination of forecasts, Maximum likelihood estimation, Time series forecasters, Unbiased forecasters

Paulo Renato A. Firmino; Paulo S. G. De Mattos Neto; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12 N Collier N Charlotte S Charlotte NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest

118

The Economics Department of Economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Economics Initiative Department of Economics #12;Economics at LSE The Department of Economics is the top ranked economics department in Europe and among the top 12 worldwide. It is one of the largest economics departments in the world, with over 60 faculty and 1,000 students and a department which makes

119

EIA - AEO2010 - Comparison With Other Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Comparison With Other Projections Comparison With Other Projections Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 Comparison With Other Projections Only IHS Global Insights, Inc. (IHSGI) produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2010. Other organizations, however, address one or more aspects of the U.S. energy market. The most recent projection from IHSGI, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal, are compared here with the AEO2010 projections. Economic growth Projections of the average annual growth rate of real GDP in the United States from 2008 to 2018 range from 2.1 percent to 2.8 percent (Table 9). In the AEO2010 Reference case, real GDP grows by an average of 2.2 percent per year over the period, lower than projected by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Social Security Administration (SSA), and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)—although none of those projections has been updated since August 2009. The AEO2010 projection is similar to the IHSGI projection and slightly higher than projections by the Interindustry Forecasting Project at the University of Maryland (INFORUM). In March 2009, the consensus Blue Chip projection was for 2.2-percent average annual growth from 2008 to 2018.

120

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

122

Forecasting phenology under global warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Forrest Forecasting phenology under global warming Ines Ibanez 1 * Richard B. Primack...and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species...climate change|East Asia, global warming|growing season, hierarchical...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

Demand Forecasting of New Products  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Keeping Unit or SKU) employing attribute analysis techniques. The objective of this thesis is to improve Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock

Sun, Yu

124

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy and Economic Outlook Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)

125

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector In the IEO2005 projections, end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors varies widely among regions and from country to country. One way of looking at the future of world energy markets is to consider trends in energy consumption at the end-use sector level. With the exception of the transportation sector, which is almost universally dominated by petroleum products at present, the mix of energy use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can vary widely from country to country, depending on a combination of regional factors, such as the availability of energy resources, the level of economic development, and political, social, and demographic factors. This chapter outlines the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) forecast for regional energy consumption by end-use sector.

126

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

A new improved forecasting method integrated fuzzy time series with the exponential smoothing method  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents a new method of integrated fuzzy time series with the exponential smoothing method to forecast university enrolments. The data of historical enrolments of the University of Alabama shown in Liu et al. (2011) are adopted to illustrate the forecasting process of the proposed method. A comparison has been made with five previous fuzzy time series models. Meanwhile, the mean squared error has also been calculated as the evaluation criterion to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. The empirical analysis shows that the proposed model reflects the fluctuations in fuzzy time series better and provides better overall forecasting results than the five listed previous models.

Peng Ge; Jun Wang; Peiyu Ren; Huafeng Gao; Yuyan Luo

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...

129

Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster (more)

Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Comparison with Other Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Comparison with Other Projections Comparison with Other Projections Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 2030 Comparison with Other Projections Only IHS Global Insight (IHSGI) produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2009. Other organizations, however, address one or more aspects of the U.S. energy market. The most recent projection from IHSGI, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal, are compared here with the AEO2009 projections. Economic Growth Projections of the average annual real GDP growth rate for the United States from 2007 through 2010 range from 0.2 percent to 3.1 percent (Table 15). Real GDP grows at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the AEO2009 reference case over the period, significantly lower than the projections made by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the Social Security Administration (SSA)—although not all of those projections have been updated to take account of the current economic downturn. The AEO2009 projection is slightly lower than the projection by IHSGI and slightly higher than the projection by the Interindustry Forecasting Project at the University of Maryland (INFORUM). In March 2009, the consensus Blue Chip projection was for 2.2-percent average annual growth from 2007 to 2010.

132

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

133

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 Total Electricity Sales 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 Natural Gas Production 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 Coal Production 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 7.5 Net Natural Gas Imports 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.4

134

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

135

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

136

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

138

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

Forecasting Water Use in Texas Cities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this research project, a methodology for automating the forecasting of municipal daily water use is developed and implemented in a microcomputer program called WATCAL. An automated forecast system is devised by modifying the previously...

Shaw, Douglas T.; Maidment, David R.

140

Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, from historical data using Gaussian mixture models to construct price density functions. We discuss how properties such as price, inventory, or demand. These patterns are obtained by clustering historical data to make both tactical decisions, such as pricing, and strategic decisions, such as product mix

Ketter, Wolfgang

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

The Economic Value of Temperature Forecasts in Electricity Generation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Every day, the U.S. electricity-generating industry decides how to meet the electricity demand anticipated over the next 24 h. Various generating units are available to meet the demand, and each unit may have its own production lead time, start-...

Thomas J. Teisberg; Rodney F. Weiher; Alireza Khotanzad

2005-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper investigates the out-predictability of fundamentals and forecast combinations. By adopting a panel-based specification, the paper obtains several interesting results. First, the Taylor-rule-based fundamental is the best among the four different fundamentals under consideration in out-of-sample contests. It provides strong evidence to out-predict the random walk over the PBW period. Second, relative to a single-equation prediction, panel predictions are generally able to enhance the statistical significance of beating the random walk. Third, combining forecasts from different fundamentals that have relatively strong out-predictability at a specific horizon does enhance both the statistical and economic significances of beating the random walk for the PBW period at short horizons.

Jyh-Lin Wu; Yi-Chiuan Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

Energy demand forecasting: industry practices and challenges  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Accurate forecasting of energy demand plays a key role for utility companies, network operators, producers and suppliers of energy. Demand forecasts are utilized for unit commitment, market bidding, network operation and maintenance, integration of renewable ... Keywords: analytics, energy demand forecasting, machine learning, renewable energy sources, smart grids, smart meters

Mathieu Sinn

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

145

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

146

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013

147

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)â??s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor...

Liu, Dandan

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

148

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PSW-GTR-245 Forecasting Productivity in Forest Fire  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, efficiency analysis) for economic analysis of the potential hazard posed by forest ecosystems conditionsGENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PSW-GTR-245 50 Forecasting Productivity in Forest Fire Suppression Francisco Rodríguez y Silva2 and Armando González-Cabán3 Abstract The abandonment of land, the high energy

Standiford, Richard B.

149

Forecasting-based SKU classification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Different spare parts are associated with different underlying demand patterns, which in turn require different forecasting methods. Consequently, there is a need to categorise stock keeping units (SKUs) and apply the most appropriate methods in each category. For intermittent demands, Croston's method (CRO) is currently regarded as the standard method used in industry to forecast the relevant inventory requirements; this is despite the bias associated with Croston's estimates. A bias adjusted modification to CRO (SyntetosBoylan Approximation, SBA) has been shown in a number of empirical studies to perform very well and be associated with a very robust behaviour. In a 2005 article, entitled On the categorisation of demand patterns published by the Journal of the Operational Research Society, Syntetos et al. (2005) suggested a categorisation scheme, which establishes regions of superior forecasting performance between CRO and SBA. The results led to the development of an approximate rule that is expressed in terms of fixed cut-off values for the following two classification criteria: the squared coefficient of variation of the demand sizes and the average inter-demand interval. Kostenko and Hyndman (2006) revisited this issue and suggested an alternative scheme to distinguish between CRO and SBA in order to improve overall forecasting accuracy. Claims were made in terms of the superiority of the proposed approach to the original solution but this issue has never been assessed empirically. This constitutes the main objective of our work. In this paper the above discussed classification solutions are compared by means of experimentation on more than 10,000 \\{SKUs\\} from three different industries. The results enable insights to be gained into the comparative benefits of these approaches. The trade-offs between forecast accuracy and other implementation related considerations are also addressed.

G. Heinecke; A.A. Syntetos; W. Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

Engineering Economics  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The purpose of these review notes is to provide a refresher in the major topics of Engineering Economics. Engineering economics deals with determining from a number of technically acceptable alternatives the o...

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Novel effects of demand side management data on accuracy of electrical energy consumption modeling and long-term forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Worldwide implementation of demand side management (DSM) programs has had positive impacts on electrical energy consumption (EEC) and the examination of their effects on long-term forecasting is warranted. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of historical DSM data on accuracy of EEC modeling and long-term forecasting. To achieve the objective, optimal artificial neural network (ANN) models based on improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) and shuffled frog-leaping (SFL) algorithms are developed for EEC forecasting. For long-term EEC modeling and forecasting for the U.S. for 20102030, two historical data types used in conjunction with developed models include (i) EEC and (ii) socio-economic indicators, namely, gross domestic product, energy imports, energy exports, and population for 19672009 period. Simulation results from IPSO-ANN and SFL-ANN models show that using socio-economic indicators as input data achieves lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for long-term EEC forecasting, as compared with EEC data. Based on IPSO-ANN, it is found that, for the U.S. EEC long-term forecasting, the addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36% and results in the estimated difference of 3592.8 MBOE (5849.9TWh) in EEC for 20102030.

F.J. Ardakani; M.M. Ardehali

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Economic Contributions of the State University System of Florida in Fiscal Year 2009-10  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Economic Contributions of the State University System of Florida in Fiscal Year 2009-10 SponsoredD, Thomas J. Stevens, PhD, and Rodney L. Clouser, PhD University of Florida, Food & Resource Economics for Economic Forecasting and Analysis March 8, 2012 #12;2 Table of Contents Executive Summary

Florida, University of

153

Forecasting wind speed financial return  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

Economic comparison of open pond raceways to photo bio-reactors for profitable production of algae for transportation fuels in the Southwest  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

As energy prices climb there is an increasing interest in alternative, renewable energy sources. One possible source of renewable bio-fuel is algae. This research uses a multi-year, Monte Carlo financial feasibility model to estimate the costs of production and chance of economic success for commercial size algal biofuel facilities in the Southwest. Capital and operating costs and productivity information from Davis et al. were used to develop parameters to define and simulate two types of algae production systems; open pond and photo-bioreactor (PBR). The financial feasibility of \\{PBRs\\} is substantially lower than for open ponds. In the base case, average total costs of production for lipids, including financial costs, were $12.73/gal and $31.61/gal for open ponds and PBRs, respectively. The chance of economic success for the base situation was zero for both open ponds and PBRs. The financial feasibility analysis showed that the only way to achieve a 95% probability of economic success in the PBR system was to reduce CAPEX by 80% or more and OPEX by 90% or more. For the open pond system there were several options that could return a 95% or greater chance of economic success, for example, reducing CAPEX by 60% and OPEX by 90%.

James W. Richardson; Myriah D. Johnson; Joe L. Outlaw

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Improved one day-ahead price forecasting using combined time series and artificial neural network models for the electricity market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The price forecasts embody crucial information for generators when planning bidding strategies to maximise profits. Therefore, generation companies need accurate price forecasting tools. Comparison of neural network and auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast commodity prices in previous researches showed that the artificial neural network (ANN) forecasts were considerably more accurate than traditional ARIMA models. This paper provides an accurate and efficient tool for short-term price forecasting based on the combination of ANN and ARIMA. Firstly, input variables for ANN are determined by time series analysis. This model relates the current prices to the values of past prices. Secondly, ANN is used for one day-ahead price forecasting. A three-layered feed-forward neural network algorithm is used for forecasting next-day electricity prices. The ANN model is then trained and tested using data from electricity market of Iran. According to previous studies, in the case of neural networks and ARIMA models, historical demand data do not significantly improve predictions. The results show that the combined ANN??ARIMA forecasts prices with high accuracy for short-term periods. Also, it is shown that policy-making strategies would be enhanced due to increased precision and reliability.

Ali Azadeh; Seyed Farid Ghaderi; Behnaz Pourvalikhan Nokhandan; Shima Nassiri

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

156

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lewis Poulin Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important... and weather information ? Numerical weather forecast production 101 ? From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts ? Some MSC weather forecast (NWP) datasets ? Finding the appropriate data for the appropriate forecast ? Preparing for probabilistic...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using 17-day ensemble forecasts of 24-h accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

Essays in monetary policy conduction and its effectiveness: monetary policy rules, probability forecasting, central bank accountability, and the sacrifice ratio  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in Mexico. My father, an engineer who did not hold any degree in economics, planted the first seed of my interest in this interesting discipline by letting me read his old copy of Samuelson?s Economics book. After speaking to me so much about how..., if there is the case, on GDP as well), but also exert their best effort to provide a ?good? forecast. If we want to really take into account the uncertainties that surrounds the forecast, it is recommended to be in probabilistic form (Samuelson, 1965, Bessler...

Gabriel, Casillas Olvera,

2004-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

160

Economic Report  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Transmitted to the Congress February 2008 Transmitted to the Congress February 2008 Together with the Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers Economic Report of the President Economic Report of the President For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800 ISBN 978-0-16-079822-1 Transmitted to the Congress February 2008 together with THE ANNUAL REPORT of the COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 2008 Fax: (202) 512-2104 Mail Stop: IDCC, Washington, DC 20402-0001 C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT ............................................. ANNUAL REPORT OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS* ...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

162

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

163

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE ... It now appears that the success of the new technology, which rests largely on energy and equipment cost savings, could be overwhelming. ...

1980-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

164

Impact of vegetation fraction from Indian geostationary satellite on short-range weather forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Indian economy is largely depending upon the agricultural productivity and thus influences the trade among the SAARC countries. High-resolution and good-quality regional weather forecasts are necessary for planners, resource managers, insurers and national agro-advisory services. In this study, high resolution updated land-surface state in terms of vegetation fraction (VF) from operational vegetation index products of Indian geostationary satellite (INSAT 3A) sensor (CCD) was utilized in numerical weather prediction (NWP) model (e.g. WRF) to investigate its impact on short-range weather forecast over the control run. Results showed that the updated vegetation fraction from INSAT 3A CCD improved the low-level 24h temperature (?18%) and moisture (?10%) forecast in comparison to control run. The 24h rainfall forecast was also improved (more than 5%) over central and southern India with the use of updated vegetation fraction compared to control experiment. INSAT 3A VF based experiment also showed a net improvement of 27% in surface sensible heat fluxes from WRF in comparison to control experiment when both were compared with area-averaged measurements from Large Aperture Scintillometer (LAS). This triggers the need of more and more use of realistic and updated land surface states through satellite remote sensing data as well as in situ micrometeorological measurements to improve the forecast quality, skill and consistency.

Prashant Kumar; Bimal K. Bhattacharya; P.K. Pal

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts

166

[working paper] Regional Economic Capacity, Economic Shocks,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 [working paper] Regional Economic Capacity, Economic Shocks, and Economic that makes them more likely to resist economic shocks or to recover quickly from of resilience capacity developed by Foster (2012) is related to economic resilience

Sekhon, Jasjeet S.

167

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

168

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

169

Ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecasts model in Taiwan  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, an ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecast (ETQPF) model was developed to provide typhoon rainfall forecasts for Taiwan. The ETQPF rainfall forecast is obtained by averaging the pick-out cases, which are screened at a ...

Jing-Shan Hong; Chin-Tzu Fong; Ling-Feng Hsiao; Yi-Chiang Yu; Chian-You Tzeng

170

Economic and policy implications of pandemic influenza.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Pandemic influenza has become a serious global health concern; in response, governments around the world have allocated increasing funds to containment of public health threats from this disease. Pandemic influenza is also recognized to have serious economic implications, causing illness and absence that reduces worker productivity and economic output and, through mortality, robs nations of their most valuable assets - human resources. This paper reports two studies that investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic flu outbreak. Policy makers can use the growing number of economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. Experts recognize that pandemic influenza has serious global economic implications. The illness causes absenteeism, reduced worker productivity, and therefore reduced economic output. This, combined with the associated mortality rate, robs nations of valuable human resources. Policy makers can use economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. In this paper economists examine two studies which investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Resulting policy implications are also discussed. The research uses the Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight + Model. This model provides a dynamic, regional, North America Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry-structured framework for forecasting. It is supported by a population dynamics model that is well-adapted to investigating macro-economic implications of pandemic influenza, including possible demand side effects. The studies reported in this paper exercise all of these capabilities.

Smith, Braeton J.; Starks, Shirley J.; Loose, Verne W.; Brown, Theresa Jean; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development

Kemner, Ken

172

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

173

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near­surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

174

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: Technology Forecast, Laws of Technical systems evolution, Analysis of Contradictions. 1. Introduction Let us: If technology forecasting practice remains at the present level, it is necessary to significantly improve to new demands (like Green House Gases - GHG Effect reduction or covering exploded nuclear reactor

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

175

UHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2

176

Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surfaceAmending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS Integrated Water Vapour: a case study to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents

Stoffelen, Ad

177

A Forecasting Support System Based on Exponential Smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents a forecasting support system based on the exponential smoothing scheme to forecast time-series data. Exponential smoothing methods are simple to apply, which facilitates...

Ana Corbern-Vallet; Jos D. Bermdez; Jos V. Segura

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

principal investigator for the project. For wind power point forecasting, ARGUS PRIMA trains a neural network using data from weather forecasts, observations, and actual wind...

179

Improved Prediction of Runway Usage for Noise Forecast :.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The research deals with improved prediction of runway usage for noise forecast. Since the accuracy of the noise forecast depends on the robustness of runway (more)

Dhanasekaran, D.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

PBL FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenues Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

182

31 - Economizers  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Publisher Summary Economizers for boilers have been available for nearly 150 years, almost as long as boilers themselves. For modem shell boilers, high efficiencies have made it difficult to justify the use of an economizer, the final decision being based in terms of payback period, which is also dependent on fuel prices. Watertube boilers need an economizer section in the gas passes in order to obtain satisfactory efficiency. The economizer is integrated into the overall design, normally between the convective super-heater and the air heater if fitted. In shell boilers with a working pressure of between 7 and 17 bar the temperature of the mass of water in the boiler is typically in the range of 170-210°C. Allowing for a temperature difference of 30-50°C between the exhaust gases and the water temperature, the boiler exit gas temperature cannot be economically reduced beneath about 200-260°C, dependent on the operating pressure. It becomes necessary to modify the process principles to achieve further heat utilization and recovery. By using an economizer this is done by conducting the feedwater supply to the economizer wherein the exhaust gas passes over tubes carrying the feedwater. The feedwater represents a further cooling medium for the exhaust gases and provides the potential for the extra heat utilization.

Colin French

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

FINANCIAL ECONOMICS RESOURCE ECONOMICS AND POLICY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ECONOMICS FINANCIAL ECONOMICS RESOURCE ECONOMICS AND POLICY Program of Study The School of Economics at the University of Maine provides excellent opportunities for graduate students to study applied economics, financial economics, and policy analysis. The School of Economics administers the Master

Thomas, Andrew

184

ECONOMIC DISPATCH  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

ECONOMIC DISPATCH ECONOMIC DISPATCH OF ELECTRIC GENERATION CAPACITY A REPORT TO CONGRESS AND THE STATES PURSUANT TO SECTIONS 1234 AND 1832 OF THE ENERGY POLICY ACT OF 2005 United States Department of Energy February 2007 ECONOMIC DISPATCH OF ELECTRIC GENERATION CAPACITY A REPORT TO CONGRESS AND THE STATES PURSUANT TO SECTIONS 1234 AND 1832 OF THE ENERGY POLICY ACT OF 2005 Sections 1234 and 1832 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct) 1 direct the U.S. Department of Energy (the Department, or DOE) to: 1) Study the procedures currently used by electric utilities to perform economic dispatch; 2) Identify possible revisions to those procedures to improve the ability of non-utility generation resources to offer their output for sale for the purpose of inclusion in

185

Performance and economic comparison between point-to-point HVDC transmission and hybrid back-to-back HVDC/AC transmissions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Two alternative schemes to interconnect asynchronous or independent ac systems by a limited capacity link are presented. The first alternative is a conventional point-to-point HVDC transmission system; the second alternative comprises an ac line terminated by an HVDC back- to-back link. Technical and operational properties of both schemes are illustrated with emphasis on var regulation capability and control flexibility to improve the overall performance of the interconnected ac systems. Cost comparisons for the principal components of the two alternatives are made. A brief description of two existing HVDC installations is given to demonstrate the practical implementation of the considered schemes.

Hammad, A.E. (ABB, Asea Brown Boveri Ltd., Baden (CH)); Long, W.F. (Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI (USA))

1990-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil Markets Oil Markets IEO2005 projects that world crude oil prices in real 2003 dollars will decline from their current level by 2010, then rise gradually through 2025. In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world demand for crude oil grows from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per day in 2015 and to just over 119 million barrels per day in 2025. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the emerging Asian nations, where strong economic growth results in a robust increase in oil demand. Emerging Asia (including China and India) accounts for 45 percent of the total world increase in oil use over the forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case. The projected increase in world oil demand would require an increment to world production capability of more than 42 million barrels per day relative to the 2002 crude oil production capacity of 80.0 million barrels per day. Producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major source of production increases. In addition, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain highly competitive, with major increments to supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa. The estimates of incremental production are based on current proved reserves and a country-by-country assessment of ultimately recoverable petroleum. In the IEO2005 oil price cases, the substantial investment capital required to produce the incremental volumes is assumed to exist, and the investors are expected to receive at least a 10-percent return on investment.

187

Fossil fuel prices and the economic and budgetary challenges of a small energy-importing economy: the case of Portugal  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper examines the economic and budgetary impacts of fuel prices using a dynamic general equilibrium model of ... detailed modeling of the public sector. The fuel price scenarios are based on forecasts by th...

Alfredo Marvo Pereira; Rui Marvo Pereira

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

What economics courses are there? Economics and International Development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economics Essentials What economics courses are there? BA Economics Economics and International Development Economics and International Relations Economics and Politics Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE) (p103) BSc Economics Economics and Management Studies Finance and Business (p46) Mathematics

Sussex, University of

189

Evaluating alternative fuels in USA: a proposed forecasting framework using AHP and scenarios  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper proposes a forecasting framework that integrates the analytic hierarchy process with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialisation of future motor fuel technologies. We analyse the reasons for the uncertainty of oil price and how it affects alternative fuel commercialisation. We propose a set of evaluation criteria including Economic, Cultural, Environmental, Sustainability and Development Time. Finally, we develop four different Scenarios to verify the robustness of each alternative.

M.R. Nava; Tugrul U. Daim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

192

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

193

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power study. Key words : wind power forecast, ramps, phase er- rors, forecasts ensemble. 1 Introduction Most

Boyer, Edmond

194

The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and number of countries withforeign subsidiaries) are significantly positively related to more optimistic management earnings forecasts....

Runyan, Bruce Wayne

2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

195

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities, Fiscal year 1995  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Welcome to the US Department of Energy`s Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities. This forecast, which is published pursuant to Public Low 100--656, ``Business Opportunity Development Reform Act of 1988,`` is intended to inform small business concerns, including those owned and controlled by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals, and women-owned small business concerns, of the anticipated fiscal year 1995 contracting and subcontracting opportunities with the Department of Energy and its management and operating contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors. This document will provide the small business contractor with advance notice of the Department`s procurement plans as they pertain to small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business concerns.Opportunities contained in the forecast support the mission of the Department, to serve as advocate for the notion`s energy production, regulation, demonstration, conservation, reserve maintenance, nuclear weapons and defense research, development and testing, when it is a national priority. The Department`s responsibilities include long-term, high-risk research and development of energy technology, the marketing of Federal power, and maintenance of a central energy data collection and analysis program. A key mission for the Department is to identify and reduce risks, as well as manage waste at more than 100 sites in 34 states and territories, where nuclear energy or weapons research and production resulted in radioactive, hazardous, and mixed waste contamination. Each fiscal year, the Department establishes contracting goals to increase contracts to small business concerns and meet our mission objectives.

Not Available

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Use of Time-Aggregated Data in Economic Screening Analyses of Combined Heat and Power Systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Combined heat and power (CHP) projects (also known as cogeneration projects) usually undergo a series of assessments and viability checks before any commitment is made. A screening analysis, with electrical and thermal loads characterized on an annual basis, may be performed initially to quickly determine the economic viability of the proposed project. Screening analyses using time-aggregated data do not reflect several critical cost influences, however. Seasonal and diurnal variations in electrical and thermal loads, as well as time-of-use utility pricing structures, can have a dramatic impact on the economics. A more accurate economic assessment requires additional detailed data on electrical and thermal demand (e.g., hourly load data), which may not be readily available for the specific facility under study. Recent developments in CHP evaluation tools, however, can generate the needed hourly data through the use of historical data libraries and building simulation. This article utilizes model-generated hourly load data for four potential CHP applications and compares the calculated cost savings of a CHP system when evaluated on a time-aggregated (i.e., annual) basis to the savings when evaluated on an hour-by-hour basis. It is observed that the simple, aggregated analysis forecasts much greater savings (i.e., greater economic viability) than the more detailed hourly analysis. The findings confirm that the simpler tool produces results with a much more optimistic outlook, which, if taken by itself, might lead to erroneous project decisions. The more rigorous approach, being more reflective of actual requirements and conditions, presents a more accurate economic comparison of the alternatives, which, in turn, leads to better decision risk management.

Hudson II, Carl Randy [ORNL

2004-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

J.B. , 2004: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using localforecast intervals for wind power output using NWP-predictedsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

United States California Solar Initiative Coastally Trappedparticipants in the California Solar Initiative (CSI)on location. In California, solar irradiance forecasts near

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

202

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

203

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

204

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

205

Evaluation of hierarchical forecasting for substitutable products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper addresses hierarchical forecasting in a production planning environment. Specifically, we examine the relative effectiveness of Top-Down (TD) and Bottom-Up (BU) strategies for forecasting the demand for a substitutable product (which belongs to a family) as well as the demand for the product family under different types of family demand processes. Through a simulation study, it is revealed that the TD strategy consistently outperforms the BU strategy for forecasting product family demand. The relative superiority of the TD strategy further improves by as much as 52% as the product demand variability increases and the degree of substitutability between the products decreases. This phenomenon, however, is not always true for forecasting the demand for the products within the family. In this case, it is found that there are a few situations wherein the BU strategy marginally outperforms the TD strategy, especially when the product demand variability is high and the degree of product substitutability is low.

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; R. Piplani

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

Forecasting Capital Expenditure with Plan Data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The short-term forecasting of capital expenditure presents one of the most difficult problems ... reason is that year-to-year fluctuations in capital expenditure are extremely wide. Some simple methods which...

W. Gerstenberger

1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...of each variable on GDP (13, 17), combined with global GDP projections (14...population, and per capita GDP, combined with projected...measure of agricultural demand for water, is forecast...Just as demand for energy is the major cause...

David Tilman; Joseph Fargione; Brian Wolff; Carla D'Antonio; Andrew Dobson; Robert Howarth; David Schindler; William H. Schlesinger; Daniel Simberloff; Deborah Swackhamer

2001-04-13T23:59:59.000Z

208

Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...

A. James Wagner

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...

Edward C. Johnston

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

211

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.

Luiz C.M. Miranda; C.A.S. Lima

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Forecasting energy markets using support vector machines  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper we investigate the efficiency of a support vector machine (SVM)-based forecasting model for the next-day directional change of electricity prices. We first adjust the best autoregressive SVM model and then we enhance it with various related variables. The system is tested on the daily Phelix index of the German and Austrian control area of the European Energy Exchange (???) wholesale electricity market. The forecast accuracy we achieved is 76.12% over a 200day period.

Theophilos Papadimitriou; Periklis Gogas; Efthimios Stathakis

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Economical Desalination  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... DESALINATION as a source of fresh water is well established technically. Now, like nuclear power ... and most important, conclusion is that flash distillation, so far the market leader in desalination equipment, is unlikely to be economic for base load production of fresh water in ...

1968-06-08T23:59:59.000Z

214

ORIGINAL PAPER Comparison of point forecast accuracy of model averaging  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

applications Cees G. H. Diks · Jasper A. Vrugt ? The Author(s) 2010. This article is published with open access Laboratory, Mail Stop B258, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA e-mail: jasper@uci.edu J. A. Vrugt Institute

Vrugt, Jasper A.

215

Forecasting aggregate time series with intermittent subaggregate components: top-down versus bottom-up forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......optimum value through a grid-search algorithm...method outperformed TD for estimating the aggregate data series...variable, there is no benefit of forecasting each subaggregate...forecasting strategies in estimating the `component'-level...WILLEMAIN, T. R., SMART, C. N., SHOCKOR......

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; Rajesh Piplani

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

Discussion Papers in Economics Department of Economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Discussion Papers in Economics Department of Economics University of Surrey Guildford Surrey GU2 7 participants at Aberdeen, Essex, LSE, UCL, the Paris School of Economics and from participants in the 2007 Royal Economic Society annual conference held in Warwick, the 2007 American Law and Economics

Doran, Simon J.

217

WARWICK ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT WARWICK ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

WARWICK ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT twenty thirteen- fourteen Prospectus #12;WARWICK ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT-being worldwide." "Economics is the issue of the times in which we live." Contents ninety-four The percent Inspirational instruction 11 Highlighted Research 13 Behavioural Economics 14 Development 16 Economic History 18

Davies, Christopher

218

Fuel economizer  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A fuel economizer device for use with an internal combustion engine fitted with a carburetor is disclosed. The fuel economizer includes a plate member which is mounted between the carburetor and the intake portion of the intake manifold. The plate member further has at least one aperture formed therein. One tube is inserted through the at least one aperture in the plate member. The one tube extends longitudinally in the passage of the intake manifold from the intake portion toward the exit portion thereof. The one tube concentrates the mixture of fuel and air from the carburetor and conveys the mixture of fuel and air to a point adjacent but spaced away from the inlet port of the internal combustion engine.

Zwierzelewski, V.F.

1984-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

219

Jobs and Economic Development from New Transmission and Generation in Wyoming  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report is intended to inform policymakers, local government officials, and Wyoming residents about the jobs and economic development activity that could occur should new infrastructure investments in Wyoming move forward. The report and analysis presented is not a projection or a forecast of what will happen. Instead, the report uses a hypothetical deployment scenario and economic modeling tools to estimate the jobs and economic activity likely associated with these projects if or when they are built.

Lantz, E.; Tegen, S.

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Low Economic Growth Case Projection Tables (1990-2025) Low Economic Growth Case Projection Tables (1990-2025) Formats Low Economic Growth Case Data Projection Tables (1 to 13 complete) Excel PDF Table Title Table C1 World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table C2 World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table C3 World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region, Low Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table C4 World Oil Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table C5 World Natural Cas Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table C6 World Coal Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table C7 World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table C8 World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, Low Economic Growth Case

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

High Economic Growth Case Projection Tables (1990-2025) High Economic Growth Case Projection Tables (1990-2025) Formats High Economic Growth Case Data Projection Tables (1 to 13 complete) Excel PDF Table Title Table B1 World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table B2 World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table B3 World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region, High Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table B4 World Oil Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table B5 World Natural Cas Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table B6 World Coal Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table B7 World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case Excel PDF Table B8 World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, High Economic Growth Case

222

Economic Growth Policies & Economic Growth Theory Influences.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? The aim of this thesis is to describe the presence of theories for economic growth in municipalities economic growth strategies, and to compare the (more)

Hallden, Sophie

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Ecological economizer  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This patent describes an engine economizer system adapted to supply an internal combustion engine with a heated air and water vapor mixture. It comprises a containment vessel, the vessel having: water level control means, an engine coolant fluid circuit, an engine lubricant circuit, an elongated air passage, air disbursement means, a water reservoir, air filter means, a vacuum aspiration port, and engine induction means associated with one of the carburetor and intake manifold and adapted to draw in the heated air and water vapor mixture by means of a hose connection to the aspiration port.

Peterson, E.M.

1992-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

224

Radar-Derived Forecasts of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over Houston, Texas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lightning Forecasts..........................................................................................45 2.7 First Flash Forecasts and Lead Times.....................................................................47 vii... Cell Number ? 25 August 2000..............................................68 3.4 First Flash Forecast Time........................................................................................70 3.5 Lightning Forecasting Algorithm (LFA) Development...

Mosier, Richard Matthew

2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

225

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

226

Economic Costs & Adaptations for Alternative Delta Regulations: Appendix F  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

­ Wastewater reuse ­ Seawater desalination ­ Water markets Optimized for statewide economic benefits Highly1 Economic Costs & Adaptations for Alternative Delta Regulations: Appendix F Stacy Tanaka Economic effects of reducing water exports Effects of increasing net Delta outflows Comparisons of Delta

Pasternack, Gregory B.

227

Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Electricity consumption forecasting has been always playing a vital role in power system management and planning. Inaccurate prediction may cause wastes of scarce energy resource or electricity shortages. However, forecasting electricity consumption has proven to be a challenging task due to various unstable factors. Especially, China is undergoing a period of economic transition, which highlights this difficulty. This paper proposes a time-varying-weight combining method, i.e. High-order Markov chain based Time-varying Weighted Average (HM-TWA) method to predict the monthly electricity consumption in China. HM-TWA first calculates the in-sample time-varying combining weights by quadratic programming for the individual forecasts. Then it predicts the out-of-sample time-varying adaptive weights through extrapolating these in-sample weights using a high-order Markov chain model. Finally, the combined forecasts can be obtained. In addition, to ensure that the sample data have the same properties as the required forecasts, a reasonable multi-step-ahead forecasting scheme is designed for HM-TWA. The out-of-sample forecasting performance evaluation shows that HM-TWA outperforms the component models and traditional combining methods, and its effectiveness is further verified by comparing it with some other existing models.

Weigang Zhao; Jianzhou Wang; Haiyan Lu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

Economic Impact Reporting Framework  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2007/08 November 2008 #12;#12;Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2007/08 #12;STFC Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2007/08 Contents: Introduction..............................................................................................................................................2 1: Overall Economic Impacts

229

Economic Impact Reporting Framework  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2008/09 #12;#12;Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2008/09 #12;STFC Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2008/09 Contents: Introduction..............................................................................................................................................2 1: Overall Economic Impacts

230

Analysis of Precipitation Using Satellite Observations and Comparisons with Global Climate Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is investigated by comparisons with satellite observa- iv tions. Speci cally, six-year long (2000-2005) simulations are performed using a high- resolution (36-km) Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model and the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) at T85 spatial... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 B. Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 1. Satellite data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 2. Weather research and forecast model simulations . . . 34 3. Community atmosphere model simulations...

Murthi, Aditya

2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

231

12-32021E2_Forecast  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

FORECAST OF VACANCIES FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2014 (Issue No. 20) Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff at the P4-P5 levels: * Advanced university degree (or equivalent postgraduate degree); * 7 or 10 years, respectively, of experience in a field of relevance to the post; * Resource management experience; * Strong analytical skills; * Computer skills: standard Microsoft Office software; * Languages: Fluency in English. Working knowledge of other official languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish) advantageous; * Ability to work effectively in multidisciplinary and multicultural teams; * Ability to communicate effectively. Professional staff at the P1-P3 levels:

232

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14

233

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.

234

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing forecasts for diverse three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators around the world we seek

McBurney, Peter

235

River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water ...

Kevin Werner; Kristen Averyt; Gigi Owen

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

Data Mining in Load Forecasting of Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This project applies Data Mining technology to the prediction of electric power system load forecast. It proposes a mining program of electric power load forecasting data based on the similarity of time series .....

Guang Yu Zhao; Yan Yan; Chun Zhou Zhao

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

Operational Rainfall and Flow Forecasting for the Panama Canal Watershed  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An integrated hydrometeorological system was designed for the utilization of data from various sensors in the 3300 km2 Panama Canal Watershed for the purpose of producing ... forecasts. These forecasts are used b...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Jason A. Sperfslage

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

Power System Load Forecasting Based on EEMD and ANN  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In order to fully mine the characteristics of load data and improve the accuracy of power system load forecasting, a load forecasting model based on Ensemble Empirical Mode ... is proposed in this paper. Firstly,...

Wanlu Sun; Zhigang Liu; Wenfan Li

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

239

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

The Energy Demand Forecasting System of the National Energy Board  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the National Energy Boards long term energy demand forecasting model in its present state of ... results of recent research at the NEB. Energy demand forecasts developed with the aid of this....

R. A. Preece; L. B. Harsanyi; H. M. Webster

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Forecasting Energy Demand Using Fuzzy Seasonal Time Series  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Demand side energy management has become an important issue for energy management. In order to support energy planning and policy decisions forecasting the future demand is very important. Thus, forecasting the f...

?Irem Ual Sar?; Basar ztaysi

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2009 BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH College of Business and Economics West Virginia University #12;West Virginia Economic Outlook 2009 George W. Hammond, Associate Director, BBER, and Associate Professor of Economics West Virginia Economic Outlook 2009 is published

Mohaghegh, Shahab

244

Economics & Finance Degree options  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

98 Economics & Finance Degree options MA or BSc (Single Honours Degrees) Applied Economics Economics Financial Economics BA (International Honours Degree) Economics (See page 51) MA or BSc (Joint Honours Degrees) Economics and one of: Geography Management Mathematics MA (Joint Honours Degrees

Brierley, Andrew

245

Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

247

Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

248

Economic Growth and Development Economics 777  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economic Growth and Development Economics 777 July 18, 2008 Fall Semester 2008 Professor J. H. Mc of economic growth and development. We will analyze several different growth models and look at some recent empirical research. Text The text for this course is: Economic Growth (2nd Edition) by Robert J. Barro

Almor, Amit

249

Application of a Combination Forecasting Model in Logistics Parks' Demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistics parks demand is an important basis of establishing the development policy of logistics industry and logistics infrastructure for planning. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of logistics parks demand, a combination forecasting ... Keywords: Logistics parks' demand, combine, simulated annealing algorithm, grey forecast model, exponential smoothing method

Chen Qin; Qi Ming

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

Boyer, Edmond

251

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

252

Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· advantage: no NWP data necessary ­ very actual shortest term forecasts possible · wind power inputAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method

Heinemann, Detlev

253

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium

Stevenson, Paul

254

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data in California and for climate zones within those areas. The staff California Energy Demand 2008-2018 forecast

255

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

Povinelli, Richard J.

256

Wind and Load Forecast Error Model for Multiple Geographically Distributed Forecasts  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To generate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations, auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to simulate forecast error curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and present some experimental results by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.

2010-11-02T23:59:59.000Z

257

Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An important determinant of our energy future is the rate at which energy conservation technologies, once developed, are put into use. At Synergic Resources Corporation, we have adapted and applied a methodology to forecast the use of conservation...

Lang, K.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism: A Network Analytic Approach Bruce A-0406 Fax: (919) 962-0432 Email: skyler@unc.edu Abstract--Efforts to combat and prevent transnational terror of terrorism. We construct the network of transnational terrorist attacks, in which source (sender) and target

Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

259

Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

' · Empirical models quantify our ability to predict without knowing the laws of physics · Climatology skill' model? 2. Dynamic climatology (DC) is a more appropriate benchmark for near- term (initialised) climate forecasts · A conditional climatology, initialised at launch and built from the historical archive

Stevenson, Paul

260

Sunny outlook for space weather forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... For decades, companies have tailored public weather data for private customers from farmers to airlines. On Wednesday, a group of businesses said that they ... utilities and satellite operators. But Terry Onsager, a physicist at the SWPC, says that private forecasting firms are starting to realize that they can add value to these predictions. ...

Eric Hand

2012-04-27T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

262

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and climate models differ. Aaron B. Wilson Context: Global http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ #12;Numerical Weather Prediction Collect Observations alters associated weather patterns. Models used to predict weather depend on the current observed state

Howat, Ian M.

263

Customized forecasting tool improves reserves estimation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Unique producing characteristics of the Teapot sandstone formation, Powder River basin, Wyoming, necessitated the creation of individualized production forecasting methods for wells producing from this reservoir. The development and use of a set of production type curves and correlations for Teapot wells are described herein.

Mian, M.A.

1986-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

Storm-in-a-Box Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...But the WRF has no immediate...being tuned to local conditions...temperatures and winds with altitude...resulting WRF forecasts...captured the local sea-breeze winds better...spread the local operation of mesoscale...to be the WRF model now...

Richard A. Kerr

2004-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

265

FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016 (Issue No. 22) #12;Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff the team of professionals. Second half 2015 VACANCY GRADE REQUIREMENTS / ROLE EXPECTED DATE OF VACANCY

266

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

267

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

268

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

269

Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

NREL: Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Models - Limitations of  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Limitations of JEDI Models Limitations of JEDI Models Results are an estimate, not a precise forecast. The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are input-output based models, also appropriately called calculators or screening tools. As such, they share important limitations with all models based on input-output calculation methodologies. For the interested user, the Environmental Protection Agency recently published EPA Assessing the Multiple Benefits of Clean Energy: A Resource for States1, which discusses and compares different types of models and screening tools for assessing economic impacts and jobs, including JEDI (see Chapter 5, pp. 136-142). The most important limitation to note is that JEDI results are estimates, not precise forecasts, for the following reasons.

271

HEURISTIC APPROACH FOR OPTIMAL PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST MODEL  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a crucial aspect of electric power system planning and operation. This paper presents a heuristic approach for optimal parameter estimation of long term load forecast models. The problem is viewed as an optimization one in which the goal is to minimize the total estimation error by properly adjusting the model coefficients. A particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed to minimize the error associated with the estimated model parameters. Real data of Egyptian network is used to perform this study. Results are reported and compared to those obtained using the well known least error squares estimation technique. Comparison results are in favor of the proposed approach which signifies its potential as a promising estimation tool.

M. R. AlRashidi; K. M. EL?Naggar

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.

273

Economic impact study of consumer product efficiencies. Final report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The economic impact study of household appliance efficiencies is briefly reported. Task I, Direct Impact on Industry, contains 4 subtasks: materials, labor inputs, energy inputs, and investment. Task II, Direct Impact on Consumers, contains 3 subtasks: life-cycle cost to the consumer, usage patterns, and long-term demand forecast and analysis. The 2 subtasks in Task III, Energy Savings and Impact on Utilities, are residential energy savings and cost and impact on utility generating capacity.

Not Available

1980-05-30T23:59:59.000Z

274

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

275

OpenEI Community - energy data + forecasting  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

FRED FRED http://en.openei.org/community/group/fred Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. energy data + forecasting Fri, 22 Jun 2012 15:30:20 +0000 Dbrodt 34

276

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

158 158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-48158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory

277

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025—slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in

278

FORSITE: a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Geothermal Site Development Forecasting System (FORSITE) is a computer-based system being developed to assist DOE geothermal program managers in monitoring the progress of multiple geothermal electric exploration and construction projects. The system will combine conceptual development schedules with site-specific status data to predict a time-phased sequence of development likely to occur at specific geothermal sites. Forecasting includes estimation of industry costs and federal manpower requirements across sites on a year-by-year basis. The main advantage of the system, which relies on reporting of major, easily detectable industry activities, is its ability to use relatively sparse data to achieve a representation of status and future development.

Entingh, D.J.; Gerstein, R.E.; Kenkeremath, L.D.; Ko, S.M.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

279

Performance simulations of twin-screw compressors with economizer  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In a compressor refrigeration plant with an economizer system, the regular expansion valve is replaced by two valves and an intermediate pressure vessel. The refrigerant which is vaporized after the first valve is injected via the compressor economizer inlet to a thread under compression. The economizer arrangement increases the refrigeration capacity and improves the coefficient of performance (COP). In this paper a performance simulation computer program for twin-screw compressors with an economizer arrangement is presented. Comparisons of economizer performance for different arrangements are often difficult to carry out if real tests have not been run, as the performance is dependent on the intermediate pressure and this pressure is not the same for different arrangements. Such comparisons can be made with the simulation program. Examples are presented for an economizer arrangement combined with external liquid subcooling and for a two-stage economizer arrangement.

Sven Jonsson

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Exponential smoothing model selection for forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Applications of exponential smoothing to forecasting time series usually rely on three basic methods: simple exponential smoothing, trend corrected exponential smoothing and a seasonal variation thereof. A common approach to selecting the method appropriate to a particular time series is based on prediction validation on a withheld part of the sample using criteria such as the mean absolute percentage error. A second approach is to rely on the most appropriate general case of the three methods. For annual series this is trend corrected exponential smoothing: for sub-annual series it is the seasonal adaptation of trend corrected exponential smoothing. The rationale for this approach is that a general method automatically collapses to its nested counterparts when the pertinent conditions pertain in the data. A third approach may be based on an information criterion when maximum likelihood methods are used in conjunction with exponential smoothing to estimate the smoothing parameters. In this paper, such approaches for selecting the appropriate forecasting method are compared in a simulation study. They are also compared on real time series from the M3 forecasting competition. The results indicate that the information criterion approaches provide the best basis for automated method selection, the Akaike information criteria having a slight edge over its information criteria counterparts.

Baki Billah; Maxwell L. King; Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

283

Economic Development from New Generation and Transmission in Wyoming and Colorado (Fact Sheet)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report analyzes the potential economic impacts in Colorado and Wyoming of a 225 MW natural gas fired electricity generation facility and a 900 MW wind farm constructed in Wyoming as well as a 180 mile, 345 kV transmission line that runs from Wyoming to Colorado. This report and analysis is not a forecast, but rather an estimate of economic activity associated with a hypothetical scenario.

Not Available

2013-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Economic Development from New Generation and Transmission in Wyoming and Colorado  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report analyzes the potential economic impacts in Colorado and Wyoming of a 225 MW natural gas fired electricity generation facility and a 900 MW wind farm constructed in Wyoming as well as a 180 mile, 345 kV transmission line that runs from Wyoming to Colorado. This report and analysis is not a forecast, but rather an estimate of economic activity associated with a hypothetical scenario.

Keyser, D.; Lantz, E.

2013-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

Project Cost Escalation Standards, document IEAB 2007-2 Page 1 Independent Economic Analysis Board  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Project Cost Escalation Standards, document IEAB 2007-2 Page 1 Independent Economic Analysis Board Project Cost Escalation Standards Task 115 Council document IEAB 2007-2 March 30, 2007 Summary Project;Project Cost Escalation Standards, document IEAB 2007-2 Page 2 Third, managers are often asked to forecast

286

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

287

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

288

2014 REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2014 REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK #12;2014 REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2014 Overview The Cincinnati USA Partnership for Economic Development and the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce are pleased to present the 2014 Regional Economic Outlook. This report was prepared by the Cincinnati USA Partnership's Regional

Boyce, Richard L.

289

Economics Department Mission Statement  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economics Department Mission Statement The mission of the Economics Department at the University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown is to develop the ability of our students to understand economic concepts, and in public policy. The central goals of an education in economics are to acquire: -- an understanding of how

Jiang, Huiqiang

290

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

291

Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information for wind farm management, but they are not perfect. Chapter (more)

Mauch, Brandon Keith

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Forecasting supply/demand and price of ethylene feedstocks  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The history of the petrochemical industry over the past ten years clearly shows that forecasting in a turbulent world is like trying to predict tomorrow's headlines.

Struth, B.W.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

294

FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast In Millions...

295

Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil erosion (Nash, 2007; Searchinger et al., 2008). On the other

Gratton, Claudio

296

An evaluation of market penetration forecasting methodologies for new residential and commercial energy technologies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Forecasting market penetration is an essential step in the development and assessment of new technologies. This report reviews several methodologies that are available for market penetration forecasting. The primary objective of this report is to help entrepreneurs understand these methodologies and aid in the selection of one or more of them for application to a particular new technology. This report also illustrates the application of these methodologies, using examples of new technologies, such as the heat pump, drawn from the residential and commercial sector. The report concludes with a brief discussion of some considerations in selecting a forecasting methodology for a particular situation. It must be emphasized that the objective of this report is not to construct a specific market penetration model for new technologies but only to provide a comparative evaluation of methodologies that would be useful to an entrepreneur who is unfamiliar with the range of techniques available. The specific methodologies considered in this report are as follows: subjective estimation methods, market surveys, historical analogy models, time series models, econometric models, diffusion models, economic cost models, and discrete choice models. In addition to these individual methodologies, which range from the very simple to the very complex, two combination approaches are also briefly discussed: (1) the economic cost model combined with the diffusion model and (2) the discrete choice model combined with the diffusion model. This discussion of combination methodologies is not meant to be exhaustive. Rather, it is intended merely to show that many methodologies often can complement each other. A combination of two or more different approaches may be better than a single methodology alone.

Raju, P.S.; Teotia, A.P.S.

1985-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

Wind power forecast error smoothing within a wind farm  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Smoothing of wind power forecast errors is well-known for large areas. Comparable effects within a wind farm are investigated in this paper. A Neural Network was taken to predict the power output of a wind farm in north-western Germany comprising 17 turbines. A comparison was done between an algorithm that fits mean wind and mean power data of the wind farm and a second algorithm that fits wind and power data individually for each turbine. The evaluation of root mean square errors (RMSE) shows that relative small smoothing effects occur. However, it can be shown for this wind farm that individual calculations have the advantage that only a few turbines are needed to give better results than the use of mean data. Furthermore different results occurred if predicted wind speeds are directly fitted to observed wind power or if predicted wind speeds are first fitted to observed wind speeds and then applied to a power curve. The first approach gives slightly better RMSE values, the bias improves considerably.

Nadja Saleck; Lueder von Bremen

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

298

Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing, often used in sales forecasting for inventory control, has always been rationalized in terms of statistical models that possess errors with constant variances. It is shown in this paper that exponential smoothing remains appropriate under more general conditions, where the variance is allowed to grow or contract with corresponding movements in the underlying level. The implications for estimation and prediction are explored. In particular, the problem of finding the predictive distribution of aggregate lead-time demand, for use in inventory control calculations, is considered using a bootstrap approach. A method for establishing order-up-to levels directly from the simulated predictive distribution is also explored.

Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler; J.Keith Ord

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis have been evaluated for two samples: a near-homogeneous sample of ECMWF and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Modelensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) ensemble forecasts during the National Science ...

Sharanya J. Majumdar; Ryan D. Torn

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

Master in Advanced Economics, curriculum Economic analysis Master in Advanced Economics, curriculum Economic analysis aims to provide a broad education  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Master in Advanced Economics, curriculum Economic analysis Master in Advanced Economics, curriculum Economic analysis aims to provide a broad education in the fields of methods, techniques and professional that work into European and International areas. Economic analysis curriculum especially focuses

Di Pillo, Gianni

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

A review of uranium economics  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The recent increase in the demand for power for commercial use, the challenges facing fossil fuel use and the prospective of cheap nuclear power motivate different countries to plan for the use of nuclear power. This paper reviews many aspects of uranium economics, which includes the advantages and disadvantages of nuclear power, comparisons with other sources of power, nuclear power production and requirements, the uranium market, uranium pricing, spot price and long-term price indicators, and the cost of building a nuclear power facility.

A.K. Mazher

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to measure in order to get the maximum positive impact on forecast performance for a particular site and short-term look-ahead period. Both tools rely on the use of NWP models to assess the sensitivity of a forecast for a particular location to measurements made at a prior time (i.e. the look-ahead period) at points surrounding the target location. The fundamental hypothesis is that points and variables with high sensitivity are good candidates for measurements since information at those points are likely to have the most impact on the forecast for the desired parameter, location and look-ahead period. One approach is called the adjoint method (Errico and Vukicevic, 1992; Errico, 1997) and the other newer approach is known as Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA; Ancell and Hakim 2007; Torn and Hakim 2008). Both approaches have been tested on large-scale atmospheric prediction problems (e.g. forecasting pressure or precipitation over a relatively large region 24 hours ahead) but neither has been applied to mesoscale space-time scales of winds or any other variables near the surface of the earth. A number of factors suggest that ESA is better suited for short-term wind forecasting applications. One of the most significant advantages of this approach is that it is not necessary to linearize the mathematical representation of the processes in the underlying atmospheric model as required by the adjoint approach. Such a linearization may be especially problematic for the application of short-term forecasting of boundary layer winds in complex terrain since non-linear shifts in the structure of boundary layer due to atmospheric stability changes are a critical part of the wind power production forecast problem. The specific objective of work described in this paper is to test the ESA as a tool to identify measurement locations and variables that have the greatest positive impact on the accuracy of wind forecasts in the 0- to 6-hour look-ahead periods for the wind generation area of California's Tehachapi Pass during the warm (high generation) season. The paper is organized

Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

2010-02-21T23:59:59.000Z

303

Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

population socio-economic processes, the households? long-compositions. Such socio-economic processes need to beSecond, as the socio- economic process unfolds, individuals

Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Goulias, Konstadinos G.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

Random switching exponential smoothing and inventory forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Exponential smoothing models represent an important prediction tool both in business and in macroeconomics. This paper provides the analytical forecasting properties of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model in the multiple source of error framework. The random coefficient state-space representation allows for switching between simple exponential smoothing and local linear trend. Therefore it enables controlling, in a flexible manner, the random changing dynamic behavior of the time series. The paper establishes the algebraic mapping between the state-space parameters and the implied reduced form ARIMA parameters. In addition, it shows that the parametric mapping allows overcoming the difficulties that are likely to emerge in estimating directly the random coefficient state-space model. Finally, it presents an empirical application comparing the forecast accuracy of the suggested model vis--vis other benchmark models, both in the ARIMA and in the exponential smoothing class. Using time series relative to wholesalers inventories in the USA, the out-of-sample results show that the reduced form of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model tends to be superior to its competitors.

Giacomo Sbrana; Andrea Silvestrini

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

306

A robust automatic phase-adjustment method for financial forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this work we present the robust automatic phase-adjustment (RAA) method to overcome the random walk dilemma for financial time series forecasting. It consists of a hybrid model composed of a qubit multilayer perceptron (QuMLP) with a quantum-inspired ... Keywords: Financial forecasting, Hybrid models, Quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm, Qubit multilayer perceptron, Random walk dilemma

Ricardo de A. Arajo

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

Heinemann, Detlev

308

Developing electricity forecast web tool for Kosovo market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper is presented a web tool for electricity forecast for Kosovo market for the upcoming ten years. The input data i.e. electricity generation capacities, demand and consume are taken from the document "Kosovo Energy Strategy 2009-2018" compiled ... Keywords: .NET, database, electricity forecast, internet, simulation, web

Blerim Rexha; Arben Ahmeti; Lule Ahmedi; Vjollca Komoni

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

Keller, Arturo A.

310

Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size. On the other hand if forecasted high production events do not occur, the cost of de- optimisation Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

311

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

312

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

Washington at Seattle, University of

313

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

Hansens, Jim

314

Improving baseline forecasts in a 500-industry dynamic CGE model of the USA.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??MONASH-style CGE models have been used to generate baseline forecasts illustrating how an economy is likely to evolve through time. One application of such forecasts (more)

Mavromatis, Peter George

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

E-Print Network 3.0 - africa conditional forecasts Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: africa conditional forecasts Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST...

316

Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing quasi-deterministic components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

317

CHARTING BC'S ECONOMIC FUTURE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CHARTING BC'S ECONOMIC FUTURE discussionguide 100communityconversations #12;1 Thank you for agreeing to participate in this Community Conversation about BC's economic future. Each year Simon Fraser is "Charting BC's Economic Future". Faced with an increasingly competitive global economy, it is more important

Kavanagh, Karen L.

318

Economic Evaluation of Radiopharmaceutical  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

97-2 Planning Report Economic Evaluation of Radiopharmaceutical Research at NIST U.S Department Radiation Division Physics Laboratory National Institute of Standards and Technology #12;Economic Evaluation of Standards and Technology by Albert N. Link Professor of Economics University of North Carolina at Greensboro

319

Economic Value of Agricultural  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economic Value of Agricultural Research Public Investment in Texas Agricultural Research Yields Significant Economic Returns #12;Texas agricultural producers and especially consumers benefit directly from in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M University conducted analyses using an agriculture

320

Renewable Energy Economic and Financial Analysis Terms of Reference | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Renewable Energy Economic and Financial Analysis Terms of Reference Renewable Energy Economic and Financial Analysis Terms of Reference Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Renewable Energy Economic and Financial Analysis Terms of Reference Agency/Company /Organization: World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area: Renewable Energy Topics: Finance, Implementation, Market analysis Website: web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTENERGY2/EXTRENENERGYTK/0,, References: Renewable Energy Economic and Financial Analysis Terms of Reference[1] Resources Techno-Economic Comparison of Off-grid Options -- Assessment of Household, Battery Charging and Isolated Micro-Grid Systems Economic Analysis of Solar PV Systems Component References ↑ "Renewable Energy Economic and Financial Analysis Terms of Reference" Retrieved from

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion

322

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center on 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 36. Increase in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country, 2002-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data

323

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses three current energy issues—electricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis

324

Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Adaptive exponential smoothing methods allow smoothing parameters to change over time, in order to adapt to changes in the characteristics of the time series. This paper presents a new adaptive method for predicting the volatility in financial returns. It enables the smoothing parameter to vary as a logistic function of user-specified variables. The approach is analogous to that used to model time-varying parameters in smooth transition generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models. These non-linear models allow the dynamics of the conditional variance model to be influenced by the sign and size of past shocks. These factors can also be used as transition variables in the new smooth transition exponential smoothing (STES) approach. Parameters are estimated for the method by minimising the sum of squared deviations between realised and forecast volatility. Using stock index data, the new method gave encouraging results when compared to fixed parameter exponential smoothing and a variety of GARCH models.

James W. Taylor

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

326

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

An economic analysis of coal-fired magnetohydrodynamics  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper is an economic comparison of the coal-fired magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) technology with conventional coal-fired steam power plants; the comparisons made are based on a levelized Cost of Electricity for similarly sized plants. A revenue requirement analysis was used for the economic evaluation of engineering alternatives in the electric utility industry. The basis for the MHD technology used in the comparison is a recently completed conceptual design done by the MHD Development Corporation for retrofitting the coal-fired J.E. Corette plant with a 250-MW MHD unit. A 500-MW MHD consideration is based on the Advanced Power Train predictions of the Department of Energy (DOE), and the conventional plant considerations are based on the Technical Assessment Guide of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The economic comparisons indicate that MHD is considerably more attractive than a conventional unit.

Lohrasbi, J.; Ashby, G. (MSE, Inc., Butte, MT (United States)); Walter, F.E. (Montana Power Co., Butte, MT (United States))

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

328

Forecasting the daily outbreak of topic-level political risk from social media using hidden Markov model-based techniques  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Nowadays, as an arena of politics, social media ignites political protests, so analyzing topics discussed negatively in the social media has increased in importance for detecting a nation's political risk. In this context, this paper designs and examines an automatic approach to forecast the daily outbreak of political risk from social media at a topic level. It evaluates the forecasting performances of topic features, investigated among the previous works that analyze social media data for politics, hidden Markov model (HMM)-based techniques, widely used for the anomaly detection with time-series data, and detection models, into which the topic features and the detection techniques are combined. When applied to South Korea's Web forum, Daum Agora, statistical comparisons with the constraints of false positive rate of political risk, and eventually the predictive governance benefits the people.

Jong Hwan Suh

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

2006-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

330

Measuring the forecasting accuracy of models: evidence from industrialised countries  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper uses the approach suggested by Akrigay (1989), Tse and Tung (1992) and Dimson and Marsh (1990) to examine the forecasting accuracy of stock price index models for industrialised markets. The focus of this paper is to compare the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of three models, that is, the Random Walk model, the Single Exponential Smoothing model and the Conditional Heteroskedastic model with the MAPE of the benchmark Naive Forecast 1 case. We do not evidence that a single model to provide better forecasting accuracy results compared to other models.

Athanasios Koulakiotis; Apostolos Dasilas

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

Socio-economic analysis: a tool for assessing the potential of nanotechnologies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Socio-economic analysis: a tool for assessing the potential of nanotechnologies Jean-Marc Brignon the denomination of Socio-Economic Analysis (SEA), this concept is used in EU safety and environmental regulation important asset of SEA regarding nanomaterials, is the comparison with alternatives in socio-economic

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

332

Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

Marquez, Ricardo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

18 Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 201314 Hazards, warnings and forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and numerical prediction models. #12;19Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2013­14 2 Performance Performance programs: · Weather forecasting services; · Flood forecasting and warning services; · Hazard prediction, Warnings and Forecasts portfolio provides a range of forecast and warning services covering weather, ocean

Greenslade, Diana

334

Modeling and Analysis Papers - Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation > Table 1 Evaluation > Table 1 Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to 2002 Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO97 AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 Total Coal Consumption 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 Total Electricity Sales 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 Production Crude Oil Production 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Natural Gas Production 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 Coal Production 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 10.1 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 Net Natural Gas Imports 17.4 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 Net Coal Exports

335

Economic Development | ornl.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Economic Development Carbon Fiber Cluster Strategy Additive Manufacturing Cluster Strategy Entrepreneurial Development Programs Oak Ridge Science and Technology Park Economic...

336

A B S T R A C T Nowadays, forecasting on what will happen in economic  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, the item for prediction here is PET (Poly Ethylene Terephthalate) which is the raw material for textile industries and it is highly sensitive against oil price fluctuations and also some other factors prices in short-time and long-time?" 1 Doctorate Student , University of Montesquieu Bordeaux 4

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

337

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2025. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2005 are consistent with those published in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO2005), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2025. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2005 are consistent with those published in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO2005), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Table of Contents Projection Tables Reference Case High Economic Growth Case Low Economic Growth Case Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Projections of Oil Production Capacity and Oil Production in Three Cases Projections of Nuclear Generating Capacity Highlights World Energy and Economic Outlook Outlook for World Energy Consumption World Economic Outlook Alternative Growth Cases

338

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Agency/Company /Organization: Energy Sector Management Assistance Program of the World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area: Non-renewable Energy Topics: Baseline projection, Co-benefits assessment, GHG inventory Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Spreadsheet Complexity/Ease of Use: Simple Website: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Cost: Free Equivalent URI: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Screenshot

339

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasting Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels MICHAEL YE, ∗ JOHN ZYREN, ∗∗ AND JOANNE SHORE ∗∗ Abstract This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermedi- ate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigat- ing the impacts of changes on price, should inventories,

340

Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

Choi, Han-Lim

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Seasonal Prediction · POAMA · Issues for future Outline #12;Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Major source Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program El Nino Mean State · Easterlies westward surface current upwelling

Lim, Eun-pa

342

Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive ...

Yang, Xiaorong

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

Exponential smoothing with covariates applied to electricity demand forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in industry and business. Their usual formulation, however, does not allow covariates to be used for introducing extra information into the forecasting process. In this paper, we analyse an extension of the exponential smoothing formulation that allows the use of covariates and the joint estimation of all the unknowns in the model, which improves the forecasting results. The whole procedure is detailed with a real example on forecasting the daily demand for electricity in Spain. The time series of daily electricity demand contains two seasonal patterns: here the within-week seasonal cycle is modelled as usual in exponential smoothing, while the within-year cycle is modelled using covariates, specifically two harmonic explanatory variables. Calendar effects, such as national and local holidays and vacation periods, are also introduced using covariates. [Received 28 September 2010; Revised 6 March 2011, 2 October 2011; Accepted 16 October 2011

José D. Bermúdez

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

344

Initial conditions estimation for improving forecast accuracy in exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper we analyze the importance of initial conditions in exponential smoothing models on forecast errors and prediction intervals. We work with certain exponential smoothing models, namely Holts additive...

E. Vercher; A. Corbern-Vallet; J. V. Segura; J. D. Bermdez

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

A Bayesian approach to forecast intermittent demand for seasonal products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper investigates the forecasting of a large fluctuating seasonal demand prior to peak sale season using a practical time series, collected from the US Census Bureau. Due to the extreme natural events (e.g. excessive snow fall and calamities), sales may not occur, inventory may not replenish and demand may set off unrecorded during the peak sale season. This characterises a seasonal time series to an intermittent category. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), a multiplicative exponential smoothing (M-ES) and an effective modelling approach using Bayesian computational process are analysed in the context of seasonal and intermittent forecast. Several forecast error indicators and a cost factor are used to compare the models. In cost factor analysis, cost is measured optimally using dynamic programming model under periodic review policy. Experimental results demonstrate that Bayesian model performance is much superior to SARIMA and M-ES models, and efficient to forecast seasonal and intermittent demand.

Mohammad Anwar Rahman; Bhaba R. Sarker

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

Review/Verify Strategic Skills Needs/Forecasts/Future Mission...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

ReviewVerify Strategic Skills NeedsForecastsFuture Mission Shifts Annual Lab Plan (1-10 yrs) Fermilab Strategic Agenda (2-5 yrs) Sector program Execution Plans (1-3...

347

A Parameter for Forecasting Tornadoes Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors develop a statistical guidance product, the tropical cyclone tornado parameter (TCTP), for forecasting the probability of one or more tornadoes during a 6-h period that are associated with landfalling tropical cyclones affecting the ...

Matthew J. Onderlinde; Henry E. Fuelberg

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power

Kemner, Ken

349

2007 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report James L. Franklin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

storms 17 4. Genesis Forecasts 17 5. Summary and Concluding Remarks 18 a. Atlantic Summary 18 statistical models, provided the best intensity guidance at each time period. The 2007 season marked the first

350

Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

NONE

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

352

Information-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The information content, that is, the predictive capability, of a forecast system is often quantified with skill scores. This paper introduces two ranked mutual information skill (RMIS) scores, RMISO and RMISY, for the evaluation of probabilistic ...

Bodo Ahrens; Andr Walser

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

354

Evolutionary Optimization of an Ice Accretion Forecasting System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The ability to model and forecast accretion of ice on structures is very important for many industrial sectors. For example, studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures are caused by icing on ...

Pawel Pytlak; Petr Musilek; Edward Lozowski; Dan Arnold

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

355

Diagnosing the Origin of Extended-Range Forecast Errors  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Experiments with the ECMWF model are carried out to study the influence that a correct representation of the lower boundary conditions, the tropical atmosphere, and the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere would have on extended-range forecast skill ...

T. Jung; M. J. Miller; T. N. Palmer

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Application of an Improved SVM Algorithm for Wind Speed Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An improved Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm is used to forecast wind in Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind power system without aerodromometer. The ... Validation (CV) method. Finally, 3.6MW DFIG w...

Huaqiang Zhang; Xinsheng Wang; Yinxiao Wu

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

Research on Development Trends of Power Load Forecasting Methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In practical problem, number of samples is often limited, for complex issues such as power load forecasting, generally available historical data and information of impact factor are very ... support vector mechan...

Litong Dong; Jun Xu; Haibo Liu; Ying Guo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

358

Representing Forecast Error in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensembles provide an opportunity to greatly improve short-term prediction of local weather hazards, yet generating reliable predictions remain a significant challenge. In particular, convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems (CPEFSs) have ...

Glen S. Romine; Craig S. Schwartz; Judith Berner; Kathryn R. Fossell; Chris Snyder; Jeff L. Anderson; Morris L. Weisman

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

Weather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

................................................................................................. 20 3.1.2 Integrate's Flow of ControlWeather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation: A Step-by-step guide of a Model Run .......................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 The Integrate Subroutine

Sadjadi, S. Masoud

360

Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Wind Speed Forecasting Using a Hybrid Neural-Evolutive Approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The design of models for time series prediction has found a solid foundation on statistics. Recently, artificial neural networks have been a good choice as approximators to model and forecast time series. Designing a neural network that provides a good ...

Juan J. Flores; Roberto Loaeza; Hctor Rodrguez; Erasmo Cadenas

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

362

A model for short term electric load forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

Tigue, John Robert

1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing... measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing...

Peyraud, Lionel

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

364

Coal Price Index Forecast by a New Partial Least-Squares Regression  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Deviation of coal price has great influence on growth of China's economic. Daily coal price indexes in Qinhuangdao were collected. Past twenty days were used to predict next day index. The principal components of twenty days were extracted. The function between output variable and components was fitted by linear, quadratic and exponential model. This improved traditional partial least-squares regression. Traditional method such as multivariate linear regression and polynomial regression were coming into comparing with our method. Improved quadratic partial least-squares obtained the smallest relative errors in mean and variance for ten reserved indexes. Those ten errors had minimum 0.3%, median 3.3% and maximum 9.7%. The ideal forecast precision certified that quadratic partial least-squares was suitable for coal price indexes.

Bo Zhang; Junhai Ma

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

365

Economic Development Office  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Contacts Gary Spanner Economic Development Office Manager 509372-4296 ROB1210 Robin Conger Program Manager 509372-4328 ROB1221 Bernard Hansen Entrepreneurial Programs Manager...

366

Economics (College of Arts and Sciences) The economics major focuses on economics as a social science.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economics (College of Arts and Sciences) The economics major focuses on economics as a social in the world? What types of political regimes best promote economic development? Are resource-rich developing countries cursed? Are drug cartels economically sound? Can humans work towards a better economic basis

Miles, Will

367

Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

2005-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

368

Wave height forecasting in Dayyer, the Persian Gulf  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Forecasting of wave parameters is necessary for many marine and coastal operations. Different forecasting methodologies have been developed using the wind and wave characteristics. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) as a robust data learning method is used to forecast the wave height for the next 3, 6, 12 and 24h in the Persian Gulf. To determine the effective parameters, different models with various combinations of input parameters were considered. Parameters such as wind speed, direction and wave height of the previous 3h, were found to be the best inputs. Furthermore, using the difference between wave and wind directions showed better performance. The results also indicated that if only the wind parameters are used as model inputs the accuracy of the forecasting increases as the time horizon increases up to 6h. This can be due to the lower influence of previous wave heights on larger lead time forecasting and the existing lag between the wind and wave growth. It was also found that in short lead times, the forecasted wave heights primarily depend on the previous wave heights, while in larger lead times there is a greater dependence on previous wind speeds.

B. Kamranzad; A. Etemad-Shahidi; M.H. Kazeminezhad

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

1997-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

370

Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

Ross, M.H. [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (US). Dept. of Physics; Thimmapuram, P.; Fisher, R.E.; Maciorowski, W. [Argonne National Lab., IL (US)

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

Forecasting the Dark Energy Measurement with Baryon Acoustic Oscillations: Prospects for the LAMOST surveys  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Large Area Multi-Object Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) is a dedicated spectroscopic survey telescope being built in China, with an effective aperture of 4 meters and equiped with 4000 fibers. Using the LAMOST telescope, one could make redshift survey of the large scale structure (LSS). The baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) features in the LSS power spectrum provide standard rulers for measuring dark energy and other cosmological parameters. In this paper we investigate the meaurement precision achievable for a few possible surveys: (1) a magnitude limited survey of all galaxies, (2) a survey of color selected red luminous galaxies (LRG), and (3) a magnitude limited, high density survey of zsurvey, we use the halo model to estimate the bias of the sample, and calculate the effective volume. We then use the Fisher matrix method to forecast the error on the dark energy equation of state and other cosmological parameters for different survey parameters. In a few cases we also use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to make the same forecast as a comparison. The fiber time required for each of these surveys is also estimated. These results would be useful in designing the surveys for LAMOST.

Xin Wang; Xuelei Chen; Zheng Zheng; Fengquan Wu; Pengjie Zhang; Yongheng Zhao

2008-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

372

Economics of Private Forestry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... is consulting editor. One of the latest is a volume dealing with the economics of private forestry by Dr. Ralph W. Marquis, assistant professor of economics, University of Rochester ... elsewhere in the world with the exception of Canada. In Britain when we talk about private forestry we allude chiefly to the ...

E. P. STEBBING

1941-01-11T23:59:59.000Z

373

Water Resources Policy & Economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Water Resources Policy & Economics FOR 4984 Selected Course Topics · Appropriative and riparian water institutions · Incentives for conservation · Water rights for in-stream environmental use · Surface water-groundwater management · Water quality regulations · Water markets · Economic and policy

Buehrer, R. Michael

374

STFC Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2009/10 Economic Impact  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

STFC Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2009/10 Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2009/10 #12;STFC Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2009/10 Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2009/10 #12;STFC Economic Impact Reporting Framework 2009/10 1 Contents: Introduction

375

INNOVATIONSIN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT The Evolving Direction of Economic  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

INNOVATIONSIN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT The Evolving Direction of Economic Development in the New REPORT PUBLISHED NOVEMBER, 1998 INNOVATIONSIN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SUMMIT II: A SEQUEL TO THE 1992 STATE AND LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY SUMMIT The Evolving Direction of Economic Development in the New

Levinson, David M.

376

Aerosols for Concentrating Solar Electricity Production Forecasts: Requirement Quantification and ECMWF/MACC Aerosol Forecast Assessment  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The potential for transferring a larger share of our energy supply toward renewable energy is a widely discussed goal in society, economics, environment, and climate-related programs. For a larger share of electricity to come from fluctuating solar and ...

Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt; Armel Oumbe; Angela Benedetti; Jean-Jacques Morcrette

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

Oil prices Brownian motion or mean reversion? A study using a one year ahead density forecast criterion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For oil related investment appraisal, an accurate description of the evolving uncertainty in the oil price is essential. For example, when using real option theory to value an investment, a density function for the future price of oil is central to the option valuation. The literature on oil pricing offers two views. The arbitrage pricing theory literature for oil suggests geometric Brownian motion and mean reversion models. Empirically driven literature suggests ARMAGARCH models. In addition to reflecting the volatility of the market, the density function of future prices should also incorporate the uncertainty due to price jumps, a common occurrence in the oil market. In this study, the accuracy of density forecasts for up to a year ahead is the major criterion for a comparison of a range of models of oil price behaviour, both those proposed in the literature and following from data analysis. The Kullbach Leibler information criterion is used to measure the accuracy of density forecasts. Using two crude oil price series, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) representing the US market, we demonstrate that accurate density forecasts are achievable for up to nearly two years ahead using a mixture of two Gaussians innovation processes with GARCH and no mean reversion.

Nigel Meade

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

378

Variational Assimilation for Xenon Dynamical Forecasts in Neutronic using Advanced Background Error Covariance Matrix  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Data assimilation method consists in combining all available pieces of information about a system to obtain optimal estimates of initial states. The different sources of information are weighted according to their accuracy by the means of error covariance matrices. Our purpose here is to evaluate the efficiency of variational data assimilation for the xenon induced oscillations forecasts in nuclear cores. In this paper we focus on the comparison between 3DVAR schemes with optimised background error covariance matrix B and a 4DVAR scheme. Tests were made in twin experiments using a simulation code which implements a mono-dimensional coupled model of xenon dynamics, thermal, and thermal-hydraulic processes. We enlighten the very good efficiency of the 4DVAR scheme as well as good results with the 3DVAR one using a careful multivariate modelling of B.

Ponot, Anglique; Bouriquet, Bertrand; Erhard, Patrick; Gratton, Serge; Thual, Olivier

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

Variational assimilation for xenon dynamical forecasts in neutronic using advanced background error covariance matrix modelling  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Data assimilation method consists in combining all available pieces of information about a system to obtain optimal estimates of initial states. The different sources of information are weighted according to their accuracy by the means of error covariance matrices. Our purpose here is to evaluate the efficiency of variational data assimilation for the xenon induced oscillations forecasts in nuclear cores. In this paper we focus on the comparison between 3DVAR schemes with optimised background error covariance matrix B and a 4DVAR scheme. Tests were made in twin experiments using a simulation code which implements a mono-dimensional coupled model of xenon dynamics, thermal, and thermalhydraulic processes. We enlighten the very good efficiency of the 4DVAR scheme as well as good results with the 3DVAR one using a careful multivariate modelling of B.

Anglique Ponot; Jean-Philippe Argaud; Bertrand Bouriquet; Patrick Erhard; Serge Gratton; Olivier Thual

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

An assessment of electrical load forecasting using artificial neural network  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the major research fields in electrical engineering. The supply industry requires forecasts with lead times, which range from the short term (a few minutes, hours, or days ahead) to the long term (up to 20 years ahead). The major priority for an electrical power utility is to provide uninterrupted power supply to its customers. Long term peak load forecasting plays an important role in electrical power systems in terms of policy planning and budget allocation. This paper presents a peak load forecasting model using artificial neural networks (ANN). The approach in the paper is based on multi-layered back-propagation feed forward neural network. For annual forecasts, there should be 10 to 12 years of historical monthly data available for each electrical system or electrical buss. A case study is performed by using the proposed method of peak load data of a state electricity board of India which maintain high quality, reliable, historical data providing the best possible results. Model's quality is directly dependent upon data integrity.

V. Shrivastava; R.B. Misra; R.C. Bansal

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Economical Condensing Turbines?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

an engineer decide when to conduct an in depth study of the economics either in the company or outside utilizing professional engineers who are experts in this type of project. Condensing steam turbines may not be economical when the fuel is purchased...Economical Condensing Turbines? by J.E.Dean, P.E. Steam turbines have long been used at utilities and in industry to generate power. There are three basic types of steam turbines: condensing, letdown 1 and extraction/condensing. ? Letdown...

Dean, J. E.

385

Integration of hydrothermal-energy economics: related quantitative studies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A comparison of ten models for computing the cost of hydrothermal energy is presented. This comparison involved a detailed examination of a number of technical and economic parameters of the various quantitative models with the objective of identifying the most important parameters in the context of accurate estimates of cost of hydrothermal energy. Important features of various models, such as focus of study, applications, marked sectors covered, methodology, input data requirements, and output are compared in the document. A detailed sensitivity analysis of all the important engineering and economic parameters is carried out to determine the effect of non-consideration of individual parameters.

Not Available

1982-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Numerical Simulation of 2010 Pakistan Flood in the Kabul River Basin by Using Lagged Ensemble Rainfall Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Lagged ensemble forecasting of rainfall and rainfallrunoffinundation (RRI) forecasting were applied to the devastating flood in the Kabul River basin, the first strike of the 2010 Pakistan flood. The forecasts were performed using the Global ...

Tomoki Ushiyama; Takahiro Sayama; Yuya Tatebe; Susumu Fujioka; Kazuhiko Fukami

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Economic Impact Analysis for EGS  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Project objective: To conduct an economic impact study for EGS and to develop a Geothermal Economics Calculator (GEC) tool to quantify (in economic terms) the potential job, energy and environmental impacts associated with electric power production from geothermal resources.

388

The Economic Impact of Binghamton  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Economic Impact of Binghamton University, FY2010 (July 1, 2009-June 30, 2010) Office .......................................................................................................... 2 ECONOMIC OUTPUT and Tioga counties and the overall impact of New York State in terms of economic output, jobs, and human

Suzuki, Masatsugu

389

The Economic University, FY2011  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Economic Impact of Binghamton University, FY2011 (July 1, 2010-June 30, 2011) Office....................................................................................................................2 ECONOMIC OUTPUT and Tioga counties) and the New York State economy in terms of economic output, jobs, and human capital

Suzuki, Masatsugu

390

Essays on economic theory  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

These four essays concern the theory of games and its application to economic theory. The first two, closely linked, chapters are an investigation into the foundational question of the sensitivity of the predictions of ...

Weinstein, Jonathan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

Essays in labor economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

I addressed three questions in Labor Economics, using experimental and quasi-experimental variation to determine causality. In the first chapter, I ask whether playing longer in the NFL increases mortality in retirement. ...

Williams, Tyler (Tyler Kenneth)

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

The economics of desalination  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The economic development of the process of desalination depends upon its ability to produce water that is competitive on a cost basis with water from conventional sources. Energy costs can be minimized by combining the water plants with power plants ...

S. Baron

1966-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

Municipal Sludge disposal economics  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Municipal Sludge disposal economics ... Atmospheric emissions of elements on particles from the Parkway sewage-sludge incinerator ... Atmospheric emissions of elements on particles from the Parkway sewage-sludge incinerator ...

Jerry Jones; David Bomberger, Jr.; F Lewis; Joel Jacknow

1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Economic Impact | Jefferson Lab  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Jefferson Lab's Hall A Jefferson Lab generates many economic benefits for the nation and Virginia, providing many well-paying jobs for highly skilled and well-educated workers. A D...

395

Essays on development economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This dissertation is a collection of three independent papers in empirical development economics. The first chapter studies the effect of a family planning program in Bangladesh, which successfully reduced fertility, on ...

Ruthbah, Ummul Hasanath

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

WINDExchange: Wind Economic Development  

Wind Powering America (EERE)

help you analyze the economics of a small wind electric system and decide whether wind energy will work for you. Wind Energy Finance Online Calculator Wind Energy Finance developed...

397

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and stimulate biomedical research. The expert panel recommends that the U.S. government build this capability around either a reactor, an accelerator or a combination of both technologies as long as isotopes for clinical and research applications can be supplied reliably, with diversity in adequate

398

Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection criterion is introduced into the forecasting scheme for selecting the most adequate multivariate model for describing the behaviour of the time series under study. The forecasting performance of this procedure is tested using some real examples.

Ana Corbern-Vallet; Jos D. Bermdez; Enriqueta Vercher

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Application of GIS on forecasting water disaster in coal mines  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In many coal mines of China, water disasters occur very frequently. It is the most important problem that water gets inrush into drifts and coal faces, locally known as water gush, during extraction and excavation. Its occurrence is controlled by many factors such as geological, hydrogeological and mining technical conditions, and very difficult to be predicted and prevented by traditional methods. By making use of overlay analysis of Geographic Information System, a multi-factor model can be built to forecast the potential of water gush. This paper introduced the method of establishment of the water disaster forecasting system and forecasting model and two practical successful cases of application in Jiaozuo and Yinzhuang coal mines. The GIS proved helpful for ensuring the safety of coal mines.

Sun Yajun; Jiang Dong; Ji Jingxian [China Univ. of Mining and Technology, Jiangshy (China)] [and others

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

Klein, Stephen

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

NONE

1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

402

Sales forecasting strategies for small businesses: an empirical investigation of statistical and judgemental methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study evolved from the mixed results shown in the reviewed forecasting literature and from the lack of sufficient forecasting research dealing with micro data. The main purpose of this study is to investigate and compare the accuracy of different quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques, and to recommend a forecasting strategy for small businesses. Emphasis is placed on the testing of combining as a tool to improve forecasting accuracy. Of particular interest is whether combining time series and judgemental forecasts provides more accurate results than individual methods. A case study of a small business was used for this purpose to assess the accuracy and applicability of combining forecasts. The evidence indicates that combining qualitative and quantitative methods results in better and improved forecasts.

Imad J. Zbib

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

403

Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

Bush, Sarah, 1973-

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

404

Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

405

Correspondence among the Correlation, RMSE, and Heidke Forecast Verification Measures; Refinement of the Heidke Score  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The correspondence among the following three forecast verification scores, based on forecasts and their associated observations, is described: 1) the correlation score, 2) the root-mean-square error (RMSE) score, and 3) the Heidke score (based on ...

Anthony G. Barnston

1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

Improving Seasonal Forecast Skill of North American Surface Air Temperature in Fall Using a Postprocessing Method  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A statistical postprocessing approach is applied to seasonal forecasts of surface air temperatures (SAT) over North America in fall, when the original uncalibrated predictions have little skill. The data used are ensemble-mean seasonal forecasts ...

XiaoJing Jia; Hai Lin; Jacques Derome

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We examine possible accuracy gains from forecast averaging in the context of interval forecasts of electricity spot prices. First, we test whether constructing empirical prediction intervals (PI) from combined electricity

Jakub Nowotarski; Rafa? Weron

2014-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

Medium-term forecasting of demand prices on example of electricity prices for industry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, a method of forecasting demand prices for electric energy for the industry has been suggested. An algorithm of the forecast for 20062010 based on the data for 19972005 has been presented.

V. V. Kossov

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

Price Forecasting and Optimal Operation of Wholesale Customers in a Competitive Electricity Market.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning (more)

Zareipour, Hamidreza

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Combining Multi Wavelet and Multi NN for Power Systems Load Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, two pre-processing methods for load forecast sampling data including multiwavelet transformation and chaotic time series ... introduced. In addition, multi neural network for load forecast including...

Zhigang Liu; Qi Wang; Yajun Zhang

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Production forecasting in shale (ultra-low permeability) gas reservoirs is of great interest due to the advent of multi-stage fracturing and horizontal drilling. The well renowned production forecasting model, Arps? Hyperbolic Decline Model...

Statton, James Cody

2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

413

E-Print Network 3.0 - air pollution forecast Sample Search Results  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

forecast Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: air pollution forecast Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 DISCOVER-AQ Outlook for Wednesay, July...

414

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

andvalidation. SolarEnergy. 73:5,307? Perez,R. ,irradianceforecastsforsolarenergyapplicationsbasedonforecastdatabase. SolarEnergy. 81:6,809?812.

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

A WRF Ensemble for Improved Wind Speed Forecasts at Turbine Height  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing was used to explore improvements in wind speed forecasts at a typical wind turbine hub height (80 m). An ensemble consisting of WRF model simulations with ...

Adam J. Deppe; William A. Gallus Jr.; Eugene S. Takle

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

BA in ECONOMICS (736020) MAP Sheet Department of Economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

BA in ECONOMICS (736020) MAP Sheet Department of Economics For students entering the degree program from approved list from approved list Econ 110* from approved list personal choice The Economics: complete the following with a grade of C- or better: Econ 110* Economics Principles and Problems Econ 378

Olsen Jr., Dan R.

417

Gatton College of Business and Economics ECO Economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Gatton College of Business and Economics ECO Economics KEY: # = new course * = course changed = course dropped University of Kentucky 2013-2014 Undergraduate Bulletin 1 ECO 101 CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC ISSUES. (3) A basic course in the analysis of contemporary economic issues with emphasis on current

MacAdam, Keith

418

ELECTRICITY CASE: ECONOMIC COST ESTIMATION FACTORS FOR ECONOMIC  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ELECTRICITY CASE: ECONOMIC COST ESTIMATION FACTORS FOR ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF TERRORIST ATTACKS Zimmerman, R. CREATE REPORT Under FEMA Grant EMW-2004-GR-0112 May 31, 2005 Center for Risk and Economic #12;2 Abstract The major economic effects of electric power outages are usually associated with three

Wang, Hai

419

BS in ECONOMICS (736021) MAP Sheet Department of Economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

BS in ECONOMICS (736021) MAP Sheet Department of Economics For students entering the degree program approved list from approved list Econ 110* from approved list personal choice The Economics Department the following with a grade of C- or better: Econ 110* Economics Principles and Problems Econ 378 Statistics

Olsen Jr., Dan R.

420

BA in ECONOMICS (736020) MAP Sheet Department of Economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

BA in ECONOMICS (736020) MAP Sheet Department of Economics For students entering the degree program The Economics Department requires a minimum of 21 hours in the major to be taken in residency at BYU courses: complete the following with a grade of C- or better: Econ 110* Economics Principles and Problems

Olsen Jr., Dan R.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

BS in ECONOMICS (736021) MAP Sheet Department of Economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

BS in ECONOMICS (736021) MAP Sheet Department of Economics For students entering the degree program The Economics Department requires a minimum of 21 hours in the major to be taken in residency at BYU courses: complete the following with a grade of C- or better: Econ 110* Economics Principles and Problems

Olsen Jr., Dan R.

422

Improving the forecasting function for a Credit Hire operator in the UK  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims to test on the predictability of Credit Hire services for the automobile and insurance industry. A relatively sophisticated time series forecasting procedure, which conducts a competition among exponential smoothing models, is employed to forecast demand for a leading UK Credit Hire operator (CHO). The generated forecasts are compared against the Naive method, resulting that demand for CHO services is indeed extremely hard to forecast, as the underlying variable is the number of road accidents a truly stochastic variable.

Nicolas D. Savio; K. Nikolopoulos; Konstantinos Bozos

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

423

Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

424

Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power ­ Overview of the ANEMOS Project. G outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting. Advanced forecasts for the power system management and market integration of wind power. Keywords: Wind power, short

Boyer, Edmond

425

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting that are combined. As a case study, we consider the problem of forecasting monthly tourism numbers for inbound tourism to Egypt. Specifically, we con- sider 33 source countries, as well as the aggregate. The novel

Abu-Mostafa, Yaser S.

426

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

there is significant uncertainty in its future intensity, the current forecast is for a slowly strengthening TC which, 3) forecast output from global models, 4) the current and projected state of the Madden with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all

Gray, William

427

VALIDATION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM OPERATIONAL SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS IN THE US  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and medium term forecasts (up to seven days ahead) from numerical weather prediction models [1]. Forecasts radiation forecasting. One approach relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models which can be global modeling of the atmosphere. NWP models cannot, at this stage of their development, predict the exact

Perez, Richard R.

428

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) Seasonal Climate Forecast (1-6 months) #12;Weather Forecast Weather Bulletin PCD SCD1 SCD2 SX6 SatelliteLOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da AND DEVELOP. DIVISION SATELLITE DIVISION ENVIROM. SYSTEM OPERATIONAL DIVISION CPTEC/INPE Msc / PHD &TRAINING

429

Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

model along with other sources of weather data such as satellite pictures and their own forecastingLessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation Somayajulu G Language Generation (NLG) system that produces textual weather forecasts for offshore oilrigs from

Sripada, Yaji

430

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone Vivien Mallet1., and B. Sportisse (2006), Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone, J, the uncertainty in chem- istry transport models is a major limitation of air quality forecasting. The source

Boyer, Edmond

431

Modelling and forecasting fossil fuels, CO2 and electricity prices and their volatilities  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the current uncertain context that affects both the world economy and the energy sector, with the rapid increase in the prices of oil and gas and the very unstable political situation that affects some of the largest raw materials producers, there is a need for developing efficient and powerful quantitative tools that allow to model and forecast fossil fuel prices, CO2 emission allowances prices as well as electricity prices. This will improve decision making for all the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling fossil fuel prices, CO2 prices and electricity prices, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider all of them together. This paper focuses on both building a multivariate model for the aforementioned prices and comparing its results with those of univariate ones, in terms of prediction accuracy (univariate and multivariate models are compared for a large span of days, all in the first 4 months in 2011) as well as extracting common features in the volatilities of the prices of all these relevant magnitudes. The common features in volatility are extracted by means of a conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic factor model which allows to solve the curse of dimensionality problem that commonly arises when estimating multivariate GARCH models. Additionally, the common volatility factors obtained are useful for improving the forecasting intervals and have a nice economical interpretation. Besides, the results obtained and methodology proposed can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

Carolina Garca-Martos; Julio Rodrguez; Mara Jess Snchez

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

432

IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

should use as a tool to evaluate as part of the planning process. Economic, political, socialIEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board Daniel D. Huppert, Chair Lon L. Peters, Vice-Chair Joel R and Guidance for Economic Analysis in Subbasin Planning Independent Economic Analysis Board January 2003

433

Compiler Comparisons  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Compiler Comparisons Using a set of benchmarks described below, different optimization options for the different compilers on Edison are compared. The compilers are also...

434

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts Antonio that the inherent variability in wind power generation and the related difficulty in predicting future generation profiles, raise major challenges to wind power integration into the electricity grid. In this work we study

Giannitrapani, Antonello

435

Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1 P Tino 2 J Tepper 3 R Anderson4 B Jones 5 range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different that there exists a long-run relationship between the growth rate of the money supply and the growth rate of prices

Tino, Peter

436

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc, 2000 Abstract The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing involved in doing so. Based on our three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators

Parsons, Simon

437

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

Heinemann, Detlev

438

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

Cerpa, Alberto E.

439

Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey on your needs for information on solar energy resources and forecasting. This survey is conducted with the California Solar Energy Collaborative (CSEC) and the California Solar Initiative (CSI) our objective

Islam, M. Saif

440

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE Wensheng Zhang1,* , Hongfu Chen1 and excessive fluctuation of agricultural and livestock products price is not only harmful to residents' living, but also affects CPI (Consumer Price Index) values, and even leads to social crisis, which influences

Boyer, Edmond

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) into the future. Our approach is to train a set of standard forecasting models to our time series data. Each model conditioning (HVAC) systems. In particular, if occupancy can be accurately pre- dicted, HVAC systems can potentially be controlled to op- erate more efficiently. For example, an HVAC system can pre-heat or pre

Hoff, William A.

442

Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks Matthew J. Daniels is a critical factor for decision-making in hospitals. Bed availability (or alternatively the bed occupancy in emergency departments, and many other important hospital decisions. To better enable a hospital to make

Kuhl, Michael E.

443

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning Navin Sharma, Pranshu Sharma, David Irwin, and Prashant Shenoy Department of Computer Science University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 {nksharma,pranshus,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--A key goal

Shenoy, Prashant

444

Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

445

Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power in Porto) Power Systems Unit Porto, Portugal Industry Partners Horizon Wind Energy, LLC Midwest Independent

Kemner, Ken

446

Power load forecasting using data mining and knowledge discovery technology  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Considering the importance of the peak load to the dispatching and management of the electric system, the error of peak load is proposed in this paper as criteria to evaluate the effect of the forecasting model. This paper proposes a systemic framework that attempts to use data mining and knowledge discovery (DMKD) to pretreat the data. And a new model is proposed which combines artificial neural networks with data mining and knowledge discovery for electric load forecasting. With DMKD technology, the system not only could mine the historical daily loading which had the same meteorological category as the forecasting day to compose data sequence with highly similar meteorological features, but also could eliminate the redundant influential factors. Then an artificial neural network is constructed to predict according to its characteristics. Using this new model, it could eliminate the redundant information, accelerate the training speed of neural network and improve the stability of the convergence. Compared with single BP neural network, this new method can achieve greater forecasting accuracy.

Yongli Wang; Dongxiao Niu; Ling Ji

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from ensemble Kalman filters? Tom from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due to the model (e.g., stochas2c physics as error; part of spread growth from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due

Hamill, Tom

448

Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Speed: Ensemble Model Output Statistics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed and phrases: Continuous ranked probability score; Density forecast; Ensem- ble system; Numerical weather prediction; Heteroskedastic censored regression; Tobit model; Wind energy. 1 #12;1 Introduction Accurate

Washington at Seattle, University of

449

Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a priori102 Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting is to reduce the number

Haak, Hein

450

Operational Forecasts of Cloud Cover and Water Vapour  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the forecast programme, which involved the additional use of 10.7 µm GOES-8 satellite data and surface weather cirrus cloud cover 15 5. A satellite-derived extinction parameter 17 5.1 Background 17 5.2 Previous work 20 5.3 Continued development of a satellite-derived 22 extinction parameter 6. Suggestions

451

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

competing numerical weather prediction centers such as the European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For most sensibleweather metrics, we lag 1 to 1.5 days (i.e., they make a 3.5day of NOAA's current investment in weather satellites. Without a modern data assimilation system

Hamill, Tom

452

Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

samples, then many verification metrics will credit a forecast with extra skill it doesn't deserve islands, zero meteorologists Imagine a planet with a global ocean and two isolated islands. Weather three metrics... (1) Brier Skill Score (2) Relative Operating Characteristic (3) Equitable Threat Score

Hamill, Tom

453

URBAN OZONE CONCENTRATION FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN CORSICA  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Perceptron; Ozone concentration. 1. Introduction Tropospheric ozone is a major air pollution problem, both, Ajaccio, France, e-mail: balu@univ-corse.fr Abstract: Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air

Boyer, Edmond

454

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

Shenoy, Prashant

455

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

Shenoy, Prashant

456

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes Marcel C. Guenther and Jeremy T. The global emergence of city bicycle hire schemes has re- cently received a lot of attention of future bicycle migration trends, as these assist service providers to ensure availability of bicycles

Imperial College, London

457

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study ON EXTREMES · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes (Germany, France) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme Value Theory (EVT) (4) Application of EVT to Verification (5) Frost

Katz, Richard

458

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study on Extremes · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes "Il est impossible que l'improbable n'arrive jamais." #12;3 OUTLINE (1) Motivation (2) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme

Katz, Richard

459

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study ON EXTREMES · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes "Il est impossible que l'improbable n'arrive jamais." #12;3 OUTLINE (1) Motivation (2) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme

Katz, Richard

460

Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Frequencies in Europe  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Frequencies in Europe Matthew J. Swann;Abstract Flood and wind damage to property and livelihoods resulting from extreme precipitation events variability of these extreme events can be closely related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation

Feigon, Brooke

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast comparisons economic" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Economics of Peak Oil  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Peak oil refers to the future decline in world production of crude oil and the accompanying potentially calamitous effects. The peak oil literature typically rejects economic analysis. This article argues that economic analysis is indeed appropriate for analyzing oil scarcity because standard economic models can replicate the observed peaks in oil production. Moreover, the emphasis on peak oil is misplaced as peaking is not a good indicator of scarcity, peak oil techniques are overly simplistic, the catastrophes predicted by the peak oil literature are unlikely, and the literature does not contribute to correcting identified market failures. Efficiency of oil markets could be improved by instead focusing on remedying market failures such as excessive private discount rates, environmental externalities, market power, insufficient innovation incentives, incomplete futures markets, and insecure property rights.

S.P. Holland

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

463

Power Economic Analysis  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

CRSP Management Center CRSP Management Center Western Area Power Administration January 2011 Power Economic Analysis of Operational Restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam In February, 1997, the operating criteria for Glen Canyon Dam were changed. Operation was restricted to a Modified Low Fluctuating Flow as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement, March, 1995. These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore the economic value of the electricity it produced. The Environmental Impact Statement provided impact information to support the Record of Decision governing dam operations. The impact

464

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

I: System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) I: System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) The projections of world energy consumption appearing in this year’s International Energy Outlook (IEO) are based on the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) international energy modeling tool, System for the Analysis of Global Energy markets (SAGE). SAGE is an integrated set of regional models that provide a technology-rich basis for estimating regional energy consumption. For each region, reference case estimates of 42 end-use energy service demands (e.g., car, commercial truck, and heavy truck road travel; residential lighting; steam heat requirements in the paper industry) are developed on the basis of economic and demographic projections. Projections of energy consumption to meet the energy demands are estimated on the basis of each region’s existing energy use patterns, the existing stock of energy-using equipment, and the characteristics of available new technologies, as well as new sources of primary energy supply.

465

Southern California Leading EconomicSouthern California Leading EconomicSouthern California Leading EconomicSouthern California Leading Economic IndicatorIndicatorIndicatorIndicator May 2014 Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting (CEAF), California  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

measured by real GDP growth, is expected to increase in the next three to six months, given the increase activity in Southern California (Figure 2). Figure 2 Leading Indicators and Real GDP -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4 employment changes (Figure 4). The SC indicator currently projects an increase in Southern California

de Lijser, Peter

466

Southern California Leading EconomicSouthern California Leading EconomicSouthern California Leading EconomicSouthern California Leading Economic IndicatorIndicatorIndicatorIndicator November 2013 Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting (CEAF), Calif  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

measured by real GDP growth, is expected to increase in the next three to six months, given the increase activity in Southern California (Figure 2). Figure 2 Leading Indicators and Real GDP -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4 employment changes (Figure 4). The SC indicator currently projects an increase in Southern California

de Lijser, Peter

467

Southern California Leading EconomicSouthern California Leading EconomicSouthern California Leading EconomicSouthern California Leading Economic IndicatorIndicatorIndicatorIndicator February 2014 Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting (CEAF), Calif  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

measured by real GDP growth, is expected to increase in the next three to six months, given the increase activity in Southern California (Figure 2). Figure 2 Leading Indicators and Real GDP -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4 employment changes (Figure 4). The SC indicator currently projects an increase in Southern California

de Lijser, Peter

468

Southern California Leading EconomicSouthern California Leading EconomicSouthern California Leading EconomicSouthern California Leading Economic IndicatorIndicatorIndicatorIndicator August 2014 Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting (CEAF), Califor  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

activity, often measured by real GDP growth, is expected to increase in the next three to six months, given activity in Southern California (Figure 2). Figure 2 Leading Indicators and Real GDP 60 70 80 90 100 110 employment changes (Figure 4). The SC indicator currently projects an increase in Southern California

de Lijser, Peter

469

RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

a mixture of hydroelectric and non- hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend, and to economically allocate the load between various non-hydroelectric plants. Neural networks provide an attractive

Manry, Michael

470

Understanding Regional Economic Growth in IndiaUnderstanding Regional Economic Growth in India Understanding Regional Economic  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Understanding Regional Economic Growth in IndiaUnderstanding Regional Economic Growth in India Understanding Regional Economic Growth in India* Jeffrey D. Sachs Director The Earth Institute at Columbia_ramiah@yahoo.co.uk Asian Economic Papers 1:3 © 2002 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts

471

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology -  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology 1 The Anemos Wind Power a professional, flexible platform for operating wind power prediction models, laying the main focus on state models from all over Europe are able to work on this platform. Keywords: wind energy, wind power

Boyer, Edmond

473

On the comparison and the complementarity of batteries and fuel cells for electric driving  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper considers different current and emerging power train technologies (ICE, BEV, HEV, FCEV and FC-RE) and provides a comparison within a techno-economic framework, especially for the architectures of range-extender power trains. The economic benefits in terms of Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) are based on forecasts for the major TCO-influencing parameters up to 2030: electric driving distances, energy (fuel, electricity, hydrogen) prices, batteries and fuel cell costs. The model takes into account functional parameters such as the battery range as well as daily trip segmentation statistics. The \\{TCOs\\} of all the vehicles become similar in 2030, given a 200km battery range for BEVs. \\{BEVs\\} are profitable for yearly mileages of 30,000km and over, and for higher battery ranges. The competitiveness of \\{FCEVs\\} is examined through the H2 target price at the pump. There is a very significant effect of the fuel cell cost on the TCO. A FCEV with a fuel cell cost of 40/kW will be competitive with a similar ICE car for a 1.75/l fuel cost and ca. 7/kg hydrogen cost. This depends too to a great extent on possible ICE cars' CO2 taxes. As regard the FC-RE electric car, the hydrogen target price at the pump is noticeably higher (ca 10/Kg). FC-RE cars \\{TCOs\\} are strongly affected by the FC power, the discount rate chosen and the yearly mileage. Moreover, it therefore seems reasonable to confine FC-RE battery ranges in the region of 60km.

Alain Le Duigou; Aimen Smatti

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

Jobs Creation Economic Recovery  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Commission (Energy Commission) collects the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) jobs creation and retention data (jobs data) from its subrecipients through the Energy Commission's ARRAJobs Creation and Economic Recovery Prompt, Fair, and Reasonable Use of ARRA Funds Subrecipient

475

Conservation IEAB Independent Economic  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Interactions Between the Fish and Wildlife Program andand Wildlife Program and the Sixth Power Plan (Phase 1)the Sixth and the Fish and Wildlife ProgramProgram #12;Northwest Power and Conservation Council IEAB Independent Economic integration of wind and solar generationImpacts from integration of wind and solar generation Impacts from

476

Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

Valero, O.J.

1996-10-03T23:59:59.000Z

477

Nowcasting economic and social data: when and why search engine data fails, an illustration using Google Flu Trends  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Obtaining an accurate picture of the current state of the economy is particularly important to central banks and finance ministries, and of epidemics to health ministries. There is increasing interest in the use of search engine data to provide such 'nowcasts' of social and economic indicators. However, people may search for a phrase because they independently want the information, or they may search simply because many others are searching for it. We consider the effect of the motivation for searching on the accuracy of forecasts made using search engine data of contemporaneous social and economic indicators. We illustrate the implications for forecasting accuracy using four episodes in which Google Flu Trends data gave accurate predictions of actual flu cases, and four in which the search data over-predicted considerably. Using a standard statistical methodology, the Bass diffusion model, we show that the independent search for information motive was much stronger in the cases of accurate prediction than in...

Ormerod, Paul; Bentley, R Alexander

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

Advanced Coal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Coal Prices..AEO 2007 forecast for coal prices for PRB coal. Transmissionregimes. Sensitivity to Coal Prices Figure 9 is similar to

Phadke, Amol

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

Forecasting GHG emissions using an optimized artificial neural network model based on correlation and principal component analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The prediction of GHG emissions is very important due to their negative impacts on climate and global warming. The aim of this study was to develop a model for GHG forecasting emissions at the national level using a new approach based on artificial neural networks (ANN) and broadly available sustainability, economical and industrial indicators acting as inputs. The ANN model architecture and training parameters were optimized, with inputs being selected using correlation analysis and principal component analysis. The developed ANN models were compared with the corresponding multiple linear regression (MLR) model, while an ANN model created using transformed inputs (principal components) was compared with a principal component regression (PCR) model. Since the best results were obtained with the ANN model based on correlation analysis, that particular model was selected for the actual 2011 GHG emissions forecasting. The relative errors of the 2010 GHG emissions predictions were used to adjust the ANN model predictions for 2011, which subsequently resulted in the adjusted 2011 predictions having a MAPE value of only 3.60%. Sensitivity analysis showed that gross inland energy consumption had the highest sensitivity to GHG emissions.

Davor Z. Antanasijevi?; Mirjana ?. Risti?; Aleksandra A. Peri?-Gruji?; Viktor V. Pocajt

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

Economic Impact & Diversity  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

ECONOMIC IMPACT AND DIVERSITY ECONOMIC IMPACT AND DIVERSITY FOURTH QUARTER STATUS (As of August 10, 2006) Executive Summary: ED is responsible for managing the department's on-going small business programs, Affirmative Action programs, Employee Concerns program, EEO programs, and the Department's Minority Education program. ED serves as the support office for department-wide efforts to broaden and/or diversify the Department's base as it relates to employment, contracting and financial assistance awards. Where we are today: ED finalized the reorganization/restructuring process which reduced the offices within ED from five to three. Along with this process, ED moved the Employee Concerns and Special Emphasis activities and personnel to the Office of Civil Rights and Diversity

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481

Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core Components of Arctic Clouds to Clear Their Influence on Climate For original submission and image(s), see ARM Research Highlights http://www.arm.gov/science/highlights/ Research Highlight Predicting how atmospheric aerosols influence cloud formation and the resulting feedback to climate is a challenge that limits the accuracy of atmospheric models. This is especially true in the Arctic, where mixed-phase (both ice- and liquid-based) clouds are frequently observed, but the processes that determine their composition are poorly understood. To obtain a closer look at what makes up Arctic clouds, scientists characterized cloud droplets and ice crystals collected at the North Slope of Alaska as part of the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) field study

482

Economic Partnership, IDB ink deal  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

18 May 2010 00:00 Economic Partnership, IDB ink deal The Oak Ridge Industrial Development Board (IDB) signed an agreement with the Oak Ridge Economic Partnership on Friday hiring...

483

Refund for Economic Development (Texas)  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The Refund for Economic Development under the Tax Code for state tax refunds for economic development. Some Texas property owners may be eligible to receive refunds of state sales and use taxes and...

484

Dynamic economic load dispatch with wind energy using modified harmony search  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The optimisation of fuel cost for short term economic dispatch of thermal generators along with renewable sources like wind generator is considered in this paper. The non-linear constraints considered are power generation limits, reserve limits and ramp rate limits. The optimal dispatch in the presence of the wind generation is obtained using modified harmony search (MHS) algorithm. The wind generator cost model is developed and used in this dynamic economic load dispatch (ELD) problem. The forecasted wind speed is utilised to calculate the average wind power output and this power is included in the economic dispatch model by means of negative load approach. Numerical results for the sample test system having five thermal units, one wind farm and one diesel unit have been presented to demonstrate the performance of the algorithm.

V. Ravikumar Pandi; B.K. Panigrahi; Swagatam Das; Zhihua Cui

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

Continuous Model Updating and Forecasting for a Naturally Fractured Reservoir  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CONTINUOUS MODEL UPDATING AND FORECASTING FOR A NATURALLY FRACTURED RESERVOIR A Thesis by HISHAM HASSAN S. ALMOHAMMADI Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements... guidance and support throughout my time here in Texas A&M University. I also would like to thank my committee members, Dr. Eduardo Gildin and Dr. Michael Sherman, for providing valued insight and help during the course of this research. I am indebted...

Almohammadi, Hisham

2013-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

486

NOAA National Weather Service I'm a weather forecaster.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

.S.D EPARTMENT OF COM M ERCE How Do You Make a Weather Satellite? How Do You Make a Weather Satellite? #12;Well you put a truck in orbit? So it can carry all the things needed to make a working weather satelliteNOAA National Weather Service I'm a weather forecaster. I need to see clouds and storms from way up

Waliser, Duane E.

487

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

488

IEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and Estuary (Buoy 10) Figure 7: The Fisheries Economic Assessment Model Process Figure 8: Columbia RiverIEAB Independent Economic Analysis Board Roger Mann, Chair Noelwah R. Netusil, Vice-Chair Kenneth L. Casavant Daniel D. Huppert Joel R. Hamilton Lon L. Peters Susan S. Hanna Hans Radtke A I - 1 Economic

489

Economic Sustainability and Ecological Compatibility  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economic Sustainability and Ecological Compatibility: Where is the room to move? October 21st - 22: Economic Sustainability and Ecological Compatibility: Where is the room to move? October 21st - 22nd , 2010, Economic Sustainability: Room to Move? Workshop Hosted by Colorado Forest Restoration Institute Walden

490

Philosophy & Economics "Made in Germany"  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Philosophy & Economics "Made in Germany" The Bachelor and Master Programmes at a Glance 2011 #12 course of studies in philosophy and economics. The aim is to provide a rigorous training for understanding complex social, economic, and political decision-making. · The philosophy curriculum is focused

Müller, Cord

491

Economic Man'' Dominate Social Behavior?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

When Does `` Economic Man'' Dominate Social Behavior? Colin F. Camerer1 * and Ernst Fehr2,3 The canonical model in economics considers people to be rational and self-regarding. However, much evidence challenges this view, raising the question of when `` Economic Man'' dominates the outcome of social

Greer, Julia R.

492

The Economic State of Milwaukee's  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Economic State of Milwaukee's Inner City: 2006 A report prepared by The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development May 2006 #12;About this Report This report was produced at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development (UWMCED), a unit of the College of Letters and Science

Saldin, Dilano

493

Emotions in economic action and interaction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

actors during the economic process where emotional currentsthat influence economic processes, including networks,to the analyses of economic processes. The most prominent

Bandelj, Nina

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Evaluating Economizer Use In Data Centers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Evaluating Economizer Use in Data Centers Benjamin Chu,eelet Keywords: Data centers, economizers, HVAC, indoor airfor data centers are economizers, which turn off the power

Chu, Benjamin

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

Data Center Economizer Contamination and Humidity Study  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Program Data Center Economizer Contamination and Humiditylevels for computers. Air economizer cycles, which bring insites to determine how economizers affect humidity control.

Shehabi, Arman

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

496

An economic comparison between two district cooling systems in Halmstad.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? The supply of cooling has increased significantly in recent years, the trend shows that the increase will continue one reason is that the standard (more)

Le, Alex

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

QUARTERLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY Vol 30 No 2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

' was not present in the UK and was present in three key sectors: other services, business services & real estate to forecast weaker Scottish growth in 2005 compared to 2004. For our central forecast, we are projecting Scottish GDP growth of 1.8% in 2005, 1.8% in 2006 and 2% in 2007. On the basis of the present published

Mottram, Nigel

498

Investigation of model parameters for high-resolution wind energy forecasting: Case studies over simple and complex terrain  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Wind power forecasting, turbine micrositing, and turbine design require high-resolution simulations of atmospheric flow. Case studies at two West Coast North American wind farms, one with simple and one with complex terrain, are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Both synoptically and locally driven events that include some ramping are considered. The performance of the model with different grid nesting configurations, turbulence closures, and grid resolutions is investigated through comparisons with observation data. For the simple terrain site, no significant improvement in the simulation results is found when using higher resolution. In contrast, for the complex terrain site, there is significant improvement when using higher resolution, but only during the locally driven event. This suggests the possibility that computational resources could be spared under certain conditions, for example when the topography is adequately resolved at coarser resolutions. Physical parameters such as soil moisture have a very large effect, but mostly for the locally forced events for both simple and complex terrain. The effect of the PBL scheme choice varies significantly depending on the meteorological forcing and terrain. On average, prognostic TKE equation schemes perform better than non-local eddy viscosity schemes.

Nikola Marjanovic; Sonia Wharton; Fotini K. Chow

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

AEO82 to AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8

500

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

need to consider coal and other fuel prices. This work wascoal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z