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Sample records for depicting model estimates

  1. Cost Model and Cost Estimating Software

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    This chapter discusses a formalized methodology is basically a cost model, which forms the basis for estimating software.

  2. Updating MIT's cost estimation model for shipbuilding

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Matthew B., Lieutenant, junior grade

    2008-01-01

    This thesis project will update the MIT ship cost estimation model by combining the two existing models (the Basic Military Training School (BMTS) Cost Model and the MIT Math Model) in order to develop a program that can ...

  3. The Art and Science of Depiction 1 The Art and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Durand, Frédo

    1 The Art and Science of Depiction 1 The Art and Science of Depiction Frédo Durand MIT Lab for Computer Science #12;2 The Art and Science of Depiction 3 From CG and geometry... Arc of the skeleton Q Visual event ev Array indexed by the polygons Search tree ve Q P P The Art and Science of Depiction 4

  4. PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN PETROLEUM AND GROUNDWATER MODELING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ewing, Richard E.

    PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN PETROLEUM AND GROUNDWATER MODELING R.E. Ewing, M.S. Pilant, J.G. Wade on grand challenge problems. In today's petroleum industry, reservoir simulators are routinely used parameters in petroleum and groundwater models. It is not intended to be exhaustive, but rather to give

  5. Statistical Surrogate Models for Estimating Probability of High...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Statistical Surrogate Models for Estimating Probability of High-Consequence Climate Change. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Statistical Surrogate Models for Estimating...

  6. Property:Depiction | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION JEnvironmental Jump to: navigation, search Property NameDefinition Jump to: navigation,Depiction

  7. On the empirical statistics of parameter estimates in parametric modeling 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Yao

    1988-01-01

    Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Shiping Li This thesis is a document of studying empirical statistics of the parameter estimates in parametric modeling. After reviewing some common estimation methods, some simulation results on the empirical..., a new estimation method is proposed to improve the accuracy of the estimates for ARMA models. In chapter four, a new estimation method is proposed for exponential models. This method first utilizes singular value decomposition of the signal...

  8. Estimating Wireless Network Properties with Spatial Statistics and Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Estimating Wireless Network Properties with Spatial Statistics and Models Janne Riihij statistics and models for different estimation problems related to wireless networks. We focus specifically wireless networks. We provide a concise survey of existing techniques from the spatial statistics

  9. Asymptotics for the maximum likelihood estimators of diffusion models 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jeong, Minsoo

    2009-05-15

    In this paper I derive the asymptotics of the exact, Euler, and Milstein ML estimators for diffusion models, including general nonstationary diffusions. Though there have been many estimators for the diffusion model, their asymptotic properties were...

  10. New DOE Modeling Tool Estimates Economic Benefits of Offshore...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Modeling Tool Estimates Economic Benefits of Offshore Wind Plants New DOE Modeling Tool Estimates Economic Benefits of Offshore Wind Plants October 1, 2013 - 3:28pm Addthis To help...

  11. New DOE Modeling Tool Estimates Economic Benefits of Offshore...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    New DOE Modeling Tool Estimates Economic Benefits of Offshore Wind Plants New DOE Modeling Tool Estimates Economic Benefits of Offshore Wind Plants October 1, 2013 - 3:28pm Addthis...

  12. Multi-rate Estimation of Coloured Noise Models in Graph-Based Estimation Algorithms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nelson, James

    Multi-rate Estimation of Coloured Noise Models in Graph-Based Estimation Algorithms Simon J. Julier. In this paper, we consider how coloured noise models can be efficiently incorporated within graph position, three velocity, three orientation). The GPS noise model introduces an extra six states (second

  13. Visual geo-localization of non-photographic depictions via 2D-3D alignment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and Josef Sivic Fig. 1 Our system automatically geo-localizes paintings, drawings, and historical, paintings and historical pho- tographs. This is achieved by aligning the input depiction with a 3D model of several scenes are represented by a set of discrim- inative visual elements that are automatically learnt

  14. Estimators in step regression models Ursula U. Muller

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wefelmeyer, Wolfgang

    Estimators in step regression models Ursula U. M¨uller Texas A&M University Anton Schick Binghamton function but smooth; see Schick and Wefelmeyer (2012) and (2013). Here the regression function has jumps. Then the corresponding convolution estimator can have the rate n-1/2 of an empirical estimator; see again Schick

  15. Pilot Models for Estimating Bicycle Intersection Volumes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Griswold, Julia B.; Medury, Aditya; Schneider, Robert J.

    2011-01-01

    and Table 4. Alternative Bicycle Model Specifications Model= 2-hr Intersection Bicycle Count Constant NComPropT BikeSymof Portland, OR. Portland Bicycle Counts 2008. Available

  16. Control relevant modeling and nonlinear state estimation applied to

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Foss, Bjarne A.

    Control relevant modeling and nonlinear state estimation applied to SOFC-GT power systems #12;ii #12;iii Rambabu Kandepu Control relevant modeling and nonlin- ear state estimation applied to SOFC- GT of the most promising fuel cell technologies is the Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC), due to its solid state

  17. Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models from Net Ecosystem

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    White, Luther

    Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models from Net Ecosystem Exchange Data Luther in the context of a deterministic com- partmental carbon sequestration system. Sensitivity and approximation usefulness in the estimation of parameters within a compartmental carbon sequestration model. Previously we

  18. Spatial Spectral Estimation forSpatial Spectral Estimation for Reactor Modeling and ControlReactor Modeling and Control

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scarrott, Carl

    in Magnox nuclear reactors l Establish safe operating limits l Issues: ­ Subset of measurements ­ ControlSpatial Spectral Estimation forSpatial Spectral Estimation for Reactor Modeling and ControlReactor Modeling and Control Carl Scarrott Granville Tunnicliffe-Wilson Lancaster University, UK c

  19. Nonparametric estimation of econometric models with categorical variables 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ouyang, Desheng

    2006-10-30

    shows that regression model with only discrete vari- ables differs significantly from the mixed discrete and continuous variables case. In the mixed variable case with at least one relevant continuous regressor, the irrele- vant variables can be smoothed... CV-based estimator has a high probability of smoothing out the irrele- vant variable, hence it leads to a more efficient (in finite samples) estimation result than the frequency estimator. It is interesting to observe that our nonparametric CV...

  20. Battery Calendar Life Estimator Manual Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jon P. Christophersen; Ira Bloom; Ed Thomas; Vince Battaglia

    2012-10-01

    The Battery Life Estimator (BLE) Manual has been prepared to assist developers in their efforts to estimate the calendar life of advanced batteries for automotive applications. Testing requirements and procedures are defined by the various manuals previously published under the United States Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC). The purpose of this manual is to describe and standardize a method for estimating calendar life based on statistical models and degradation data acquired from typical USABC battery testing.

  1. Stochastic Wireless Channel Modeling, Estimation and Identification from Measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olama, Mohammed M [ORNL; Djouadi, Seddik M [ORNL; Li, Yanyan [ORNL

    2008-07-01

    This paper is concerned with stochastic modeling of wireless fading channels, parameter estimation, and system identification from measurement data. Wireless channels are represented by stochastic state-space form, whose parameters and state variables are estimated using the expectation maximization algorithm and Kalman filtering, respectively. The latter are carried out solely from received signal measurements. These algorithms estimate the channel inphase and quadrature components and identify the channel parameters recursively. The proposed algorithm is tested using measurement data, and the results are presented.

  2. Ridge Regression Estimation Approach to Measurement Error Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shalabh

    Ridge Regression Estimation Approach to Measurement Error Model A.K.Md. Ehsanes Saleh Carleton of the regression parameters is ill conditioned. We consider the Hoerl and Kennard type (1970) ridge regression (RR) modifications of the five quasi- empirical Bayes estimators of the regression parameters of a measurement error

  3. ESTIMATING CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR IN AN ENERGY-ECONOMY POLICY MODEL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    furnace emissions to 2050. Despite insufficient variation in energy prices over the historical periodESTIMATING CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR IN AN ENERGY-ECONOMY POLICY MODEL by Dale Beugin B.A.Sc., University Degree: Master of Resource Management Title of Thesis: Estimating Consumer Behaviour in an Energy

  4. Estimating Emissions in Latin America: An Alternative to Traffic Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richner, Heinz

    Estimating Emissions in Latin America: An Alternative to Traffic Models Margarita Ossés de Eicker; Hans Hurni, Centre for Development and Environment (CDE), University of Bern, Switzerland Emissions allow precise estimations of these emissions but are too expensive for a broad application. A simplifed

  5. Piecewise Convex Function Estimation: Representations, Duality and Model Selection

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    functionals correspond to variable halfwidth data-adaptive kernels, i.e. the e#11;ective halfwidth decreasesPiecewise Convex Function Estimation: Representations, Duality and Model Selection Kurt S. Riedel

  6. Panel data models with nonadditive unobserved heterogeneity : estimation and inference

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Joonhwan

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers fixed effects estimation and inference in linear and nonlinear panel data models with random coefficients and endogenous regressors. The quantities of interest - means, variances, and other moments of ...

  7. The Art and Science of Depiction Fredo Durand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reif, Rafael

    The Art and Science of Depiction Fr´edo Durand MIT LCS Graphics Group Abstract This text deals graphics, art history and experimental psychology. We will first show the limits of the notion of a perfect and place it in the broader context of pic- tures and visual arts. We hope that it will permit

  8. Root Modeling: Estimating Storage, Live, and Dead Pool

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Post, Wilfred M.

    Root Modeling: Estimating Storage, Live, and Dead Pool Turnover Times; Storage Inputs to New Root to choose best-fit parameters · "Storage" simulations with in-growth cores · Live and dead pool simulations Atmosphere East Atmosphere; 1 SD East tree rings f(Average respiration and soil gas) Modeled GSD = 1.3 Range

  9. Model Year 2012 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2011-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  10. Model Year 2011 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2010-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  11. Model Year 2013 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2012-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  12. Estimating Failure Propagation in Models of Cascading Blackouts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dobson, Ian [University of Wisconsin, Madison; Carreras, Benjamin A [ORNL; Lynch, Vickie E [ORNL; Nkei, Bertrand [ORNL; Newman, David E [University of Alaska

    2005-09-01

    We compare and test statistical estimates of failure propagation in data from versions of a probabilistic model of loading-dependent cascading failure and a power systems blackout model of cascading transmission line overloads. The comparisons suggest mechanisms affecting failure propagation and are an initial step towards monitoring failure propagation from practical system data. Approximations to the probabilistic model describe the forms of probability distributions of cascade sizes.

  13. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Locatelli, R.

    A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model ...

  14. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rawlins, M. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Kimball, J. S.; Dass, P.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; et al

    2015-07-28

    A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate modelmore »simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m?² yr?², equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in model elements controlling vegetation productivity and soil respiration as being needed for reducing uncertainty in land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. These advances will require collection of new field data on vegetation and soil dynamics, the development of benchmarking data sets from measurements and remote-sensing observations, and investments in future model development and intercomparison studies.« less

  15. PARAMETRIC MODELS FOR ESTIMATING WIND TURBINE FATIGUE LOADS FOR DESIGN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sweetman, Bert

    1 PARAMETRIC MODELS FOR ESTIMATING WIND TURBINE FATIGUE LOADS FOR DESIGN Lance Manuel1 Paul S-4020 ABSTRACT International standards for wind turbine certification depend on finding long-term fatigue load loads. #12;2 INTRODUCTION Design constraints for wind turbine structures fall into either extreme load

  16. AIAA-2001-0047 PARAMETRIC MODELS FOR ESTIMATING WIND TURBINE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sweetman, Bert

    AIAA-2001-0047 1 PARAMETRIC MODELS FOR ESTIMATING WIND TURBINE FATIGUE LOADS FOR DESIGN Lance 94305-4020 ABSTRACT International standards for wind turbine certification depend on finding long. INTRODUCTION Design constraints for wind turbine structures fall into either extreme load or fatigue categories

  17. The Lithium-Ion Cell: Model, State Of Charge Estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schenato, Luca

    The Lithium-Ion Cell: Model, State Of Charge Estimation and Battery Management System Tutor and Y. Fuentes. Computer simulations of a lithium-ion polymer battery and implications for higher. Di Domenico, A. Stefanopoulou, and G. Fiengo., Reduced Order Lithium-ion Battery Electrochemical

  18. IMPROVING EFFICIENT MARGINAL ESTIMATORS IN BIVARIATE MODELS WITH PARAMETRIC MARGINALS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schick, Anton

    AND ANTON SCHICK Abstract. Suppose we have data from a bivariate model with parametric marginals. Efficient nonparametric estimators in the presence of a constraint, see e.g. Schick and Wefelmeyer (2008) for a recent = The research of Hanxiang Peng was supported in parts by NSF Grant DMS 0940365. The research of Anton Schick

  19. AIAA-2001-0047 PARAMETRIC MODELS FOR ESTIMATING WIND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AIAA-2001-0047 PARAMETRIC MODELS FOR ESTIMATING WIND TURBINE FATIGUE LOADS FOR DESIGN Lance Manuel Laboratories Wind Energy Technology Department Albuquerque, NM 87185-0708 Steven R. Winterstein Department standards for wind turbine certification depend on finding long-term fatigue load distributions

  20. SPATIOTEMPORAL MODELS IN THE ESTIMATION OF AREA PRECIPITATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lisbon, University of

    SPATIOTEMPORAL MODELS IN THE ESTIMATION OF AREA PRECIPITATION Eduardo Severino and Teresa Alpuim University of Lisbon, Portugal SUMMARY Since area precipitation measurements are difficult to obtain because of the large spatial and time variability of the precipitation field, the development of statistical methods

  1. Emulating maize yields from global gridded crop models using statistical estimates

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Blanc, E.

    This study estimates statistical models emulating maize yield responses to changes in temperature and

  2. Model Reduction and Parameter Estimation in Groundwater Modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Siade, Adam

    2012-01-01

    Uncon?ned Groundwater Model Reduction via Proper Orthogonalvi List of Figures One-dimensional groundwater ?owQuadratic Programming 3.1 Con?ned aquifer groundwater ?ow

  3. Model Year 2006 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2005-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  4. Model Year 2005 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2004-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  5. Model Year 2010 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2009-10-14

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  6. Model Year 2007 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2007-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  7. Model Year 2015 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2014-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  8. Model Year 2009 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2008-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  9. Model Year 2008 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2007-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  10. Model Year 2016 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2015-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  11. Model Year 2014 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2013-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  12. Similarity-based semi-local estimation of EMOS models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lerch, Sebastian

    2015-01-01

    Weather forecasts are typically given in the form of forecast ensembles obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with varying initial conditions and physics parameterizations. Such ensemble predictions tend to be biased and underdispersive and thus require statistical postprocessing. In the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) approach, a probabilistic forecast is given by a single parametric distribution with parameters depending on the ensemble members. This article proposes two semi-local methods for estimating the EMOS coefficients where the training data for a specific observation station are augmented with corresponding forecast cases from stations with similar characteristics. Similarities between stations are determined using either distance functions or clustering based on various features of the climatology, forecast errors, ensemble predictions and locations of the observation stations. In a case study on wind speed over Europe with forecasts from the Grand Limited Area...

  13. Estimation of landfill emission lifespan using process oriented modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ustohalova, Veronika . E-mail: veronika.ustohalova@uni-essen.de; Ricken, Tim; Widmann, Renatus

    2006-07-01

    Depending on the particular pollutants emitted, landfills may require service activities lasting from hundreds to thousands of years. Flexible tools allowing long-term predictions of emissions are of key importance to determine the nature and expected duration of maintenance and post-closure activities. A highly capable option represents predictions based on models and verified by experiments that are fast, flexible and allow for the comparison of various possible operation scenarios in order to find the most appropriate one. The intention of the presented work was to develop a experimentally verified multi-dimensional predictive model capable of quantifying and estimating processes taking place in landfill sites where coupled process description allows precise time and space resolution. This constitutive 2-dimensional model is based on the macromechanical theory of porous media (TPM) for a saturated thermo-elastic porous body. The model was used to simulate simultaneously occurring processes: organic phase transition, gas emissions, heat transport, and settlement behavior on a long time scale for municipal solid waste deposited in a landfill. The relationships between the properties (composition, pore structure) of a landfill and the conversion and multi-phase transport phenomena inside it were experimentally determined. In this paper, we present both the theoretical background of the model and the results of the simulations at one single point as well as in a vertical landfill cross section.

  14. Improving parameter estimation and water table depth simulation in a land surface model using GRACE water storage and estimated base flow data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lo, Min-Hui; Famiglietti, James S; Yeh, P. J.-F.; Syed, T. H

    2010-01-01

    model using GRACE water storage and estimated base flow data,model using GRACE water storage and estimated base flow datawith esti- mated base flow data in the model calibration.

  15. Multi-rate Modeling, Model Inference, and Estimation for Statistical Classifiers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Multi-rate Modeling, Model Inference, and Estimation for Statistical Classifiers ¨Ozg¨ur C University of Washington 2004 Program Authorized to Offer Degree: Electrical Engineering #12;#12;University: Mari Ostendorf Reading Committee: Mari Ostendorf Jeffrey A. Bilmes Maya R. Gupta Date: #12;#12;In

  16. Nonparametric estimation of varying coefficient dynamic panel models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cai, Zongwu; Li, Qi

    2008-10-01

    #2; m2 because the number of parameters in ~6! is m2+ However, when m1 #7; m2, the model is overidentified, and there may not exist a unique a to satisfy ~6!+ To obtain a unique a satisfy- ing ~6!, we premultiply ~6! by an m2 #3; m1 matrix Sn' , where... with Qit #1; Q~Vit ! and n #1; NT, Sn #1; 1 n #6; i#1;1 N #6; t#1;1 T QitUit' Kh~Zit #5; z!+ Then solving for a we obtain [a #1; ~Sn' Sn !#5;1Sn' Tn , (7) where Tn #1; 1 n #6; i#1;1 N #6; t#1;1 T Qit Kh~Zit #5; z!Yit + The estimator [a defined in ~7...

  17. Maximum Likelihood Estimation for the Proportional Odds Model with Random Effects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Donglin

    Maximum Likelihood Estimation for the Proportional Odds Model with Random Effects DONGLIN ZENG, D. Y. LIN, and GUOSHENG YIN In this article, we study the semiparametric proportional odds model; Frailty model; Linear transformation model; Proportional hazards; Semiparametric efficiency; Survival data

  18. A Comparative Study of Estimation Models for Satellite Relative Motion 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Desai, Uri

    2013-01-31

    The problem of relative spacecraft motion estimation is considered with application to various reference and relative orbits. Mean circular and elliptic orbits are analyzed, with relative orbits ranging in size from 1 km to 10 km. Estimators...

  19. Mass Flow Estimation with Model Bias Correction for a Turbocharged Diesel Engine

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johansen, Tor Arne

    Mass Flow Estimation with Model Bias Correction for a Turbocharged Diesel Engine Tomás Polóni. Based on an augmented observable Mean Value En- gine Model (MVEM) of a turbocharged Diesel engine in the intake duct. Keywords: Diesel engine, Mass flow estimation, Bias estimation, Kalman filtering, Mean value

  20. A depth-derived Pleistocene age model: Uncertainty estimates, sedimentation variability, and nonlinear climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wunsch, Carl

    A depth-derived Pleistocene age model: Uncertainty estimates, sedimentation variability. To avoid biasing this ``depth-derived'' age estimate, the depth scale is first corrected for the effects sediment accumulation rates are estimated and modeled as an autocorrelated stochastic process. Depth-derived

  1. A conceptual model to estimate the nitrogen requirement of corn (Zea mays L.) 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lopez Collado, Catalino Jorge

    2007-04-25

    The objectives of this work were to evaluate the vegetative parameters used to estimate crop N demand and to estimate the accuracy and precision of the conceptual model of fertilization using an error propagation method. ...

  2. Parameter estimation of coupled water and energy balance models based on stationary constraints of surface states

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sun, Jian

    [1] We use a conditional averaging approach to estimate the parameters of a land surface water and energy balance model and then use the estimated parameters to partition net radiation into latent, sensible, and ground ...

  3. Modeling, Estimation, and Control of Waste Heat Recovery Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Luong, David

    2013-01-01

    State Estimation for Open Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC)138optimization of an organic Rankine cycle waste heat powerand Simulation of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) System for

  4. Glass Property Models and Constraints for Estimating the Glass...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    increases in waste loading in HLW and LAW glasses are possible over current system planning estimates. The data (although limited in some cases) were evaluated to determine a...

  5. Model Test Setup and Program for Experimental Estimation of Surface Loads of the SSG Kvitsy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Model Test Setup and Program for Experimental Estimation of Surface Loads of the SSG Kvitsøy Pilot Engineering No. 32 ISSN: 1603-9874 Model Test Setup and Program for Experimental Estimation of Surface Loads University October, 2005 #12;#12;Preface This report presents the preparations done prior to model tests

  6. SENSITIVITY OF SINGLE DIODE MODELS FOR PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES TO METHOD USED FOR PARAMETER ESTIMATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PV modules representative of a variety of technologies. Keywords: Modeling, Parameter estimation to represent the electrical performance of a photovoltaic (PV) module. A single diode model is formulated) but no standard method has been adopted by the broad community. Without a standard method for estimating model

  7. Estimation of system reliability using a semiparametric model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wu, Leon

    An important problem in reliability engineering is to predict the failure rate, that is, the frequency with which an engineered system or component fails. This paper presents a new method of estimating failure rate using ...

  8. Shape & Tone Depiction for Implicit Surfaces Emilio Vital Brazila,b

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Figueiredo, Luiz Henrique

    Shape & Tone Depiction for Implicit Surfaces Emilio Vital Brazila,b , Ives Mac^edoa,b , Mario Costa- culations such as point pertinence (i.e. whether a point Email addresses: emilio@impa.br (Emilio Vital

  9. A climate sensitivity estimate using Bayesian fusion of instrumental observations and an Earth System model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    sensitivity estimate using Bayesian fusion of instrumental observations and an Earth System model, J. Geophys System model Roman Olson,1 Ryan Sriver,1 Marlos Goes,2,3 Nathan M. Urban,4,5 H. Damon Matthews,6 MuraliA climate sensitivity estimate using Bayesian fusion of instrumental observations and an Earth

  10. Hierarchical models for estimating state and demographic trends in U.S. death penalty public opinion

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gelman, Andrew

    Hierarchical models for estimating state and demographic trends in U.S. death penalty public?" Because the death penalty is governed by state laws rather than federal laws, it is of special interest logistic regression model to estimate support for the death penalty as a function of the year, the state

  11. Estimating Student Proficiency Using an Item Response Theory Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

    into two broad categories: expert-centric or data-centric [14]. The expert-centric approach, which includes. Examples of data-centric student models are structure-learned dynamic Bayesian networks [14], models learned using the Q-Matrix method [6], and Item Response Theory [16, 17] models. Data-centric models

  12. Logit Models for Estimating Urban Area Through Travel 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Talbot, Eric

    2011-10-21

    because the variable of interest is a proportion, rather than a continuous number. To improve on these previous models, the research described in this document developed a system of two models. Each model was developed using logistic regression... to develop through trip tables. For predictor variables, the models use results from a very simple gravity model; the average daily traffic (ADT) at each external station as a proportion of the total ADT at all available external stations; the number...

  13. Wavelet Based Density Estimators for Modeling Multidimensional Data Sets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shahabi, Cyrus

    the distribution of this random variable. We exhibit an estimator for the wavelet coeÃ?cients of this density and ionospheric data. After three levels of o#11;-line pre-processing, observations of temperature, water vapor agreement nr. F30602-99-1-0524, and unrestricted cash/equipment gifts from NCR, IBM, Intel and SUN. #12; 1

  14. Bilinear estimation of pollution source profiles in receptor models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    the pollution sources based on air pollution data. This article is concerned with estimation of the source and assess the contribution of each source based on this data. There have been two traditional approaches. Los Angeles, CA 90089-2531 + Address for correspondence: NRCSE, University of Washington, Box 351720

  15. Automatic Parameter Estimation in a Mesoscale Model Without Ensembles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Duane, Gregory S.

    . Hacker National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO gduane,hacker@ucar.edu In numerical as extra state variables, and applying standard data assimilation methods that use ensembles to rep- resent, it is argued that the approach to parameter estimation can be extended to a more general scheme for machine

  16. Hybrid Simulation Modeling to Estimate U.S. Energy Elasticities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to Estimate U.S. Energy Elasticities Examining Committee: Chair: Jacob Fox Master of Resource Management energy efficiency index (AEEI) parameters. The ability of economies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to calculate price- independent changes in energy-efficiency in the form of the AEEI, by comparing energy

  17. Modeling, Estimation, and Control of Waste Heat Recovery Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Luong, David

    2013-01-01

    presented along with a centrifugal pump model. General ModelCentrifugal pumps are comprised of hydraulic and mechanicalK is the pump constant, and ? is the pump speed. Centrifugal

  18. Plan-view Trajectory Estimation with Dense Stereo Background Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Darrell, T.

    2001-02-01

    In a known environment, objects may be tracked in multiple views using a set of back-ground models. Stereo-based models can be illumination-invariant, but often have undefined values which inevitably lead to foreground ...

  19. Parameter Estimation Techniques for a Class of Nonlinear Hysteresis Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    materials employed in a wide range of actuators and sensors. These models are formulated as integral of the hysteresis loop. Hence optimal tendon design to attenuate wind or earthquake-induced vibrations in civil energy models [8,10,18­20,24,25], Preisach formulations [2,3,5,7,16,26], and domain wall models [6

  20. Impedance-estimation methods, modeling methods, articles of manufacture, impedance-modeling devices, and estimated-impedance monitoring systems

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Richardson, John G. (Idaho Falls, ID)

    2009-11-17

    An impedance estimation method includes measuring three or more impedances of an object having a periphery using three or more probes coupled to the periphery. The three or more impedance measurements are made at a first frequency. Three or more additional impedance measurements of the object are made using the three or more probes. The three or more additional impedance measurements are made at a second frequency different from the first frequency. An impedance of the object at a point within the periphery is estimated based on the impedance measurements and the additional impedance measurements.

  1. Three Essays on Estimation and Testing of Nonparametric Models 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ma, Guangyi

    2012-10-19

    | , then the local quadratic estimator for (m0 (x) ;m1 (x) ;m2 (x)) | can be written as b (x) = b 0 (x) ; b 1 (x) ; b 2 (x) | ; 8 where for j = 0; 1; 2, b j (x) = 1 hj 1 n Xn i=1 Wji (x)Yi 1 n Xn i=1 W0i (x) ; and the corresponding weights...) Xi x h s21 s0s2 Xi x h 2 # Ki; where sj = 1 nh Xn i=1 Xi x h j Ki for j = 0; 1; 2; 3; 4: 2.2.2 EL for the Local Quadratic Estimating Equations In this subsection we construct the empirical likelihood formulation...

  2. Estimating home energy decision parameters for a hybrid energyYeconomy policy model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , household energy demand, hybrid energy model, bottom-up energy model 1. Introduction: energy a variety of energyYeconomy models are available to forecast the effectiveness of energy and envi- ronmentEstimating home energy decision parameters for a hybrid energyYeconomy policy model Mark Jaccard

  3. Estimating reservoir parameters from seismic and electromagnetic data using stochastic rock-physics models and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Jinsong

    ) presented a method for quantitative estimation of reservoir parameters (porosity, water saturationEstimating reservoir parameters from seismic and electromagnetic data using stochastic rock Berkeley National Laboratory Summary A Bayesian model is developed to estimate porosity, fluid saturation

  4. Modeling, Estimation, and Control of Waste Heat Recovery Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Luong, David

    2013-01-01

    Steam Turbine . . . . . .and A. Ghaffari. “Steam Turbine Model. ” Simulation= m ? v (h in ? h out ) Steam Turbine As with the pump, the

  5. Model estimates food-versus-biofuel trade-off

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rajagapol, Deepak; Sexton, Steven; Hochman, Gal; Roland-Holst, David; Zilberman, David D

    2009-01-01

    associ- ated with biofuel production and model the effectspolicymakers blame biofuel production mandates for the foodfood crisis struck as biofuel production, driven largely by

  6. A categorical model for traffic incident likelihood estimation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuchangi, Shamanth

    2007-04-25

    In this thesis an incident prediction model is formulated and calibrated. The primary idea of the model developed is to correlate the expected number of crashes on any section of a freeway to a set of traffic stream characteristics, so that a...

  7. Innovative Methodology Efficient Estimation of Detailed Single-Neuron Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Columbia University

    ) and propose a simple statistical method for automatically building large, detailed compartmental models of single neurons, circumvent- ing some of the traditional complexities in building these models "by hand, the knowledge that passive properties of neurons are accurately described by the cable equation (Baldi et al

  8. Variance bounds for estimators in autoregressive models with constraints

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wefelmeyer, Wolfgang

    &M University Anton Schick Binghamton University Wolfgang Wefelmeyer Universit¨at zu K¨oln Abstract We consider), Koul and Schick (1997) and Schick (2001). For regression models Yi = r(Xi) + i, corresponding results are in Schick (1993). We follow their approach in our model (1.3) with restrictions on T. We consider

  9. Numerically Estimating Internal Models of Dynamic Virtual Objects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sekuler, Robert

    human subjects to manipulate a computer-animated virtual object. This virtual object (vO) was a high, human cognition, human information processing, ideal performer, internal model, virtual object, virtual, specifically how humans acquire an internal model of a dynamic virtual object. Our methodology minimizes

  10. General model selection estimation of a periodic regression with a Gaussian noise

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Konev, Victor; 10.1007/s10463-008-0193-1

    2010-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of estimating a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with an additive stationary gaussian noise having unknown correlation function. A general model selection procedure on the basis of arbitrary projective estimates, which does not need the knowledge of the noise correlation function, is proposed. A non-asymptotic upper bound for quadratic risk (oracle inequality) has been derived under mild conditions on the noise. For the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise the risk upper bound is shown to be uniform in the nuisance parameter. In the case of gaussian white noise the constructed procedure has some advantages as compared with the procedure based on the least squares estimates (LSE). The asymptotic minimaxity of the estimates has been proved. The proposed model selection scheme is extended also to the estimation problem based on the discrete data applicably to the situation when high frequency sampling can not be provided.

  11. Logistic Regression and Bayesian Model Selection in Estimation of Probability of Success

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shemyakin, Arkady

    1 1 Logistic Regression and Bayesian Model Selection in Estimation of Probability of Success Arkady ABSTRACT Logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis are used to estimate probability of success X is analyzed as an explanatory variable. A comparison is made between logistic regression technique

  12. A Performance Model to Estimate Execution Time of Scientific Workflows on the Cloud

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sakellariou, Rizos

    . In the evaluation, three real-world scientific workflows are used to compare the estimated makespan calculatedA Performance Model to Estimate Execution Time of Scientific Workflows on the Cloud Ilia Pietri.K Information Sciences Institute, University of Southern California, USA Abstract--Scientific workflows, which

  13. Flood control of rivers with nonlinear model predictive control and moving horizon estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ]. Several studies can be found in literature where MPC is used to control water systems [15], [16] and [5Flood control of rivers with nonlinear model predictive control and moving horizon estimation control (MPC) in combination with moving horizon estimation (MHE) can more effectively be used for flood

  14. Special Section --Marine Controlled-Source Electromagnetic Methods A Bayesian model for gas saturation estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Jinsong

    reservoir model. We consid- er the porosity and fluid saturation of each layer in the reservoir, the bulk- trical resistivity of reservoir materials is highly sensitive to water saturation. However, estimating saturation estimation using marine seismic AVA and CSEM data Jinsong Chen1 , G. Michael Hoversten1 , Donald

  15. A NEW APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING ENTRAINMENT RATE IN CUMULUS AND PARAMETERIZATION IN MODELS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A NEW APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING ENTRAINMENT RATE IN CUMULUS AND PARAMETERIZATION IN MODELS Chunsong Entrainment of dry air into clouds is essential to many cloud processes, affecting cloud microphysical for estimating fractional entrainment rate in cumulus clouds from aircraft observations. This approach is based

  16. Precise Propagations of Chaos Estimates for FeynmanKac and Genealogical Particle Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Del Moral , Pierre

    Precise Propagations of Chaos Estimates for Feynman­Kac and Genealogical Particle Models P. Del genealogical tree evolution yielding what seems to be the first precise propagations of chaos estimates ). In this situation the N­path particle algo­ rithm # i n = (# #i p,n )0#p#n # E # [0,n] represents the genealogical

  17. Statistical testing and estimation in continuous time interest rate models 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Myung Suk

    2006-10-30

    The shape of drift function in continuous time interest rate models has been investigated by many authors during the past decade. The main concerns have been whether the drift function is linear or nonlinear, but no convincing conclusions have been...

  18. Hybrid Model of Existing Buildings for Transient Thermal Performance Estimation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, X.; Wang, S.

    2006-01-01

    Building level energy models are important to provide accurate prediction of energy consumption for building performance diagnosis and energy efficiency assessment of retrofitting alternatives for building performance upgrading. Simplified...

  19. Abstract--Using a bioenergetics model, we estimated daily ration and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    332 Abstract--Using a bioenergetics model, we estimated daily ration and seasonal prey consumption sandbar sharks (Carcharhinus plumbeus) in Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, using a bioenergetics model* W. Wesley used in error analyses of the sandbar shark (Carcharhinus plumbeus) bioenergetics model. See text

  20. Parameter Estimation and Capacity Fade Analysis of Lithium-Ion Batteries Using Reformulated Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parameter Estimation and Capacity Fade Analysis of Lithium-Ion Batteries Using Reformulated Models and characterize capacity fade in lithium-ion batteries. As a comple- ment to approaches to mathematically model been made in developing lithium-ion battery models that incor- porate transport phenomena

  1. Linear and NonLinear Estimation Methods Applied to the Hemodynamic model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schaal, Stefan

    Linear and NonLinear Estimation Methods Applied to the Hemodynamic model Evangelos A. Theodorou s that controls the blood inflow. The total balloon model can be defined by the 4 differential equations the hemodynamic process of the balloon model. These equations consist of a set of deterministic highly non

  2. A model for pricing data bundles based on minimax risks for estimation of a location parameter

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robertson, Edward L.

    A model for pricing data bundles based on minimax risks for estimation of a location parameter of progress on the fundamental conceptual issues of the mathematical modeling of data, increasingly attention to this line of work; in particular, we propose and analyze a model for the pricing of data when the value

  3. Impact of aerothermal modeling on the estimation of turbine blade life

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collin, Jean E., 1978-

    2004-01-01

    The impact of aerothermal modeling on estimates of turbine blade heat transfer and life was assessed for three high pressure turbine blades. The work was conducted as part of a project aimed at the evaluation of the effect ...

  4. New methods for estimation, modeling and validation of dynamical systems using automatic differentiation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Griffith, Daniel Todd

    2005-02-17

    The main objective of this work is to demonstrate some new computational methods for estimation, optimization and modeling of dynamical systems that use automatic differentiation. Particular focus will be upon dynamical ...

  5. Estimating the Market Penetration of Residential Cool Storage Technology Using Economic Cost Modeling 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weijo, R. O.; and Brown, D. R.

    1988-01-01

    This study estimated the market penetration for residential cool storage technology using economic cost modeling. Residential cool storage units produce and store chill during off-peak periods of the day to be used during times of peak electric...

  6. Estimating Heat and Mass Transfer Processes in Green Roof Systems: Current Modeling Capabilities and Limitations (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tabares Velasco, P. C.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation discusses estimating heat and mass transfer processes in green roof systems: current modeling capabilities and limitations. Green roofs are 'specialized roofing systems that support vegetation growth on rooftops.'

  7. Comparative Analysis of the Cost Models Used for Estimating Renovation Costs of Universities in Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Faquih, Yaquta Fakhruddin

    2010-10-12

    Facility managers use various cost models and techniques to estimate the cost of renovating a building and to secure the required funds needed for building renovation. A literature search indicates that these techniques offer both advantages...

  8. A Model for Estimating Demand for Irrigation Water on the Texas High Plains 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Condra, G. D.; Lacewell, R. D.; Sprott, J. M.; Adams, B. M.

    1975-01-01

    and soybeans. Inputs that can be evaluated include irrigation water, natural gas, diesel, nitrogen fertilizer and herbicides. The primary focus of this work was to estimate the demand for irrigation water in the study area. The model was applied using...

  9. Control-oriented modeling and adaptive parameter estimation of a lithium ion intercalation cell

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bi, Pierre (Pierre Yanhe)

    2015-01-01

    Battery management systems using parameter and state estimators based on electrochemical models for Lithium ion cells, are promising efficient use and safety of the battery. In this thesis, two findings related to ...

  10. Stochastic Analog Circuit Behavior Modeling by Point Estimation Method

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    He, Lei

    -based method such as APEX with the similar accuracy. ACM Classification Keywords: B.7.2: - Integrated Circuits- Design Aids General Terms: Algorithms, Performance Authors Keywords: Behavior Modeling, Point Estima and man- Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom

  11. ESTIMATING RETARDATION FROM THE FREUNDLICH ISOTHERM FOR MODELING CONTAMINANT TRANSPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coles, Cynthia

    to model leachate migration from landfills is needed to protect the public and the environment. Introduction A concern with landfills, and especially older unlined landfills, is the migration of leachate risk of off-site leachate migration at newer, lined landfills with leachate collection systems

  12. FUNCTIONAL ESTIMATION FOR A MULTICOMPONENT AGE REPLACEMENT MODEL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vázquez-Abad, Felisa J.

    @iro.umontreal.ca SYNOPTIC ABSTRACT We consider a multicomponent system with identical components subject to failures­ generative simulation, maintenance models, age replacement policies. #12; L'ECUYER, MARTIN, AND V ' AZQUEZ­ABAD 1. INTRODUCTION We consider a system with M identical components subject to failures. Each time

  13. Evaluation of Clear Sky Models for Satellite-Based Irradiance Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sengupta, M.; Gotseff, P.

    2013-12-01

    This report describes an intercomparison of three popular broadband clear sky solar irradiance model results with measured data, as well as satellite-based model clear sky results compared to measured clear sky data. The authors conclude that one of the popular clear sky models (the Bird clear sky model developed by Richard Bird and Roland Hulstrom) could serve as a more accurate replacement for current satellite-model clear sky estimations. Additionally, the analysis of the model results with respect to model input parameters indicates that rather than climatological, annual, or monthly mean input data, higher-time-resolution input parameters improve the general clear sky model performance.

  14. Experimental Validation of Stochastic Wireless Urban Channel Model: Estimation and Prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kuruganti, Phani Teja [ORNL] [ORNL; Ma, Xiao [ORNL] [ORNL; Djouadi, Seddik M [ORNL] [ORNL

    2012-01-01

    Stochastic differential equations (SDE) can be used to describe the time-varying nature of wireless channels. This paper validates a long-term fading channel model for estimation and prediction from solely using measured received signal strength measurements. Such channel models can be used for optimizing wireless networks deployed for industrial automation, public access, and communication. This paper uses two different sets of received signal measurement data to estimate an predict the signal strength based on past measurements. The realworld performance of the estimation and prediction algorithm is demonstrated.

  15. Optimizing Environment Maps for Material Depiction Adrien Bousseau1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    O'Brien, James F.

    Optimizing Environment Maps for Material Depiction Adrien Bousseau1,2 Emmanuelle Chapoulie1 Ravi optimized lighting emphasizes materials (b) Poor lighting de-emphasizes materials Figure 1: Our method (a) automatically optimizes the lighting to enhance material-specific visual features. The lighting reveals the thin

  16. An analysis of tomb reliefs depicting boat construction from the Old Kingdom period in Egypt 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rogers, Edward Morgan

    1996-01-01

    Among the aspects of daily life represented on the walls of private tombs during the Old Kingdom in Egypt are reliefs depicting the construction of boat hulls. Examination of the twenty known reliefs and relief fragments which date to this period...

  17. ARM - PI Product - Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach HomeA Better Anode DesigngovCampaignsSpring SinglegovFieldgovDataPI Data ProductsClimate Modeling Best

  18. Quantifying the impact of model errors on topdown estimates of carbon monoxide emissions using satellite observations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heald, Colette L.

    Quantifying the impact of model errors on topdown estimates of carbon monoxide emissions using use of inverse modeling to better quantify regional surface emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), which to or larger than the combustion source, optimizing the CO from NMVOC emissions on larger spatial scales than

  19. Modeling and Bayesian parameter estimation for shape memory alloy bending actuators

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . In this paper we employ a computationally efficient model for a SMA bending actuator. Furthermore, we utilizeModeling and Bayesian parameter estimation for shape memory alloy bending actuators John H. Crewsa Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States ABSTRACT In this paper, we employ a homogenized

  20. Computing Estimates in the Proportional Odds Model David R. Hunter1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hunter, David

    Computing Estimates in the Proportional Odds Model David R. Hunter1 Kenneth Lange2 Department running head: Computing MLE for proportional odds Submitted to Annals of the Institute of Statistical The semiparametric proportional odds model for survival data is useful when mortality rates of different groups

  1. Statistical Simulation to Estimate Uncertain Behavioral Parameters of Hybrid Energy-Economy Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    functions. Policies that change energy prices, such as a tax on GHG emissions, can be simulated for their effect on output, energy demand, and, as a result, emissions. The model responses to these price changesStatistical Simulation to Estimate Uncertain Behavioral Parameters of Hybrid Energy-Economy Models

  2. Coupling remote sensing with computational fluid dynamics modelling to estimate lake chlorophyll-a concentration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coupling remote sensing with computational fluid dynamics modelling to estimate lake chlorophyll form 17 October 2000; accepted 1 June 2001 Abstract A remotely sensed image of Loch Leven, a shallow in the remotely sensed image. It is proposed that CFD modelling benefits the interpretation of remotely sensed

  3. Recurrent neural network language model training with noise contrastive estimation for speech recognition

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, X.; Liu, X.; Gales, M. J. F.; Woodland, P. C.

    2015-04-22

    , recurrent neural network, GPU, noise contrastive estimation, speech recognition 1. INTRODUCTION Statistical language models (LMs) are crucial components in many speech and language processing systems designed for tasks such as speech recognition, spoken... as follows. In section 2, recur- rent neural network LMs are reviewed. Noise contrastive estimation is presented in section 3. The detailed implement of NCE training is presented in section 4. Experiment results on a large vocabulary conversational telephone...

  4. Maximum likelihood parameter estimation in time series models using sequential Monte Carlo

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yildirim, Sinan

    2013-06-11

    , respectively. This approach is useful to handle the case where the columns of Y are generated sequentially in time, such as in audio signal processing. Usually very large number of columns in Y leads to the necessity of online algorithms to learn the model... .6 (dashed lines). For illustrative purposes, every 1000th estimate is shown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 6.1 Histograms of Monte Carlo estimates of gradients of log p?,?,?? (Y ?,?,?) w.r.t. the parameters of the ?-stable distribution...

  5. Parameter estimation from flowing fluid temperature logging data in unsaturated fractured rock using multiphase inverse modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mukhopadhyay, S.; Tsang, Y.; Finsterle, S.

    2009-01-15

    A simple conceptual model has been recently developed for analyzing pressure and temperature data from flowing fluid temperature logging (FFTL) in unsaturated fractured rock. Using this conceptual model, we developed an analytical solution for FFTL pressure response, and a semianalytical solution for FFTL temperature response. We also proposed a method for estimating fracture permeability from FFTL temperature data. The conceptual model was based on some simplifying assumptions, particularly that a single-phase airflow model was used. In this paper, we develop a more comprehensive numerical model of multiphase flow and heat transfer associated with FFTL. Using this numerical model, we perform a number of forward simulations to determine the parameters that have the strongest influence on the pressure and temperature response from FFTL. We then use the iTOUGH2 optimization code to estimate these most sensitive parameters through inverse modeling and to quantify the uncertainties associated with these estimated parameters. We conclude that FFTL can be utilized to determine permeability, porosity, and thermal conductivity of the fracture rock. Two other parameters, which are not properties of the fractured rock, have strong influence on FFTL response. These are pressure and temperature in the borehole that were at equilibrium with the fractured rock formation at the beginning of FFTL. We illustrate how these parameters can also be estimated from FFTL data.

  6. Estimate of B(K -> pi nu nubar) from Standard Model fits to lambda_t

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. H. Kettell; L. G. Landsberg; H. Nguyen

    2003-05-19

    We estimate B(K -> pi nu nubar) in the context of the Standard Model by fitting for lambda_t = Vtd x V*ts of the `kaon unitarity triangle' relation. We fit data from epsilon_K, the CP-violating parameter describing K-mixing, and a_{psi K}, the CP-violating asymmetry in B -> J/psi K decays. Our estimate is independent of the CKM matrix element Vcb and of the ratio of Bs to Bd mixing frequencies. The measured value of B(K+ -> pi+ nu nubar) can be compared both to this estimate and to predictions made from the ratio of B mixing frequencies.

  7. Effects of uncertainty in rock-physics models on reservoir parameter estimation using marine seismic AVA and CSEM data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ajo-Franklin, Jonathan

    models on estimates of reservoir parameters from joint inversion of seismic AVA and CSEM data. The reser framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, we obtain estimates of reservoir parameters as well as of the uncertainty in the estimates. Synthetic case studies show that uncertainties in both rock-physics models

  8. Noise modeling concepts in nonlinear state estimation S. Kols a,b,*, B.A. Foss a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Foss, Bjarne A.

    Noise modeling concepts in nonlinear state estimation S. Kolås a,b,*, B.A. Foss a , T.S. Schei c Keywords: Nonlinear state estimation Constrained nonlinear systems Noise modeling Joint UKF a b s t r a c study noise modeling based on a hypothesis that it is important to model noise correctly. In practice

  9. Analyticity, Convergence and Convergence Rate of Recursive Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Hidden Markov Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tadi?, Vladislav B

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers the asymptotic properties of the recursive maximum likelihood estimation in hidden Markov models. The paper is focused on the asymptotic behavior of the log-likelihood function and on the point-convergence and convergence rate of the recursive maximum likelihood estimator. Using the principle of analytical continuation, the analyticity of the asymptotic log-likelihood function is shown for analytically parameterized hidden Markov models. Relying on this fact and some results from differential geometry (Lojasiewicz inequality), the almost sure point-convergence of the recursive maximum likelihood algorithm is demonstrated, and relatively tight bounds on the convergence rate are derived. As opposed to the existing result on the asymptotic behavior of maximum likelihood estimation in hidden Markov models, the results of this paper are obtained without assuming that the log-likelihood function has an isolated maximum at which the Hessian is strictly negative definite.

  10. A Neural Network Model for Construction Projects Site Overhead Cost Estimating in Egypt

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ElSawy, Ismaail; Razek, Mohammed Abdel

    2011-01-01

    Estimating of the overhead costs of building construction projects is an important task in the management of these projects. The quality of construction management depends heavily on their accurate cost estimation. Construction costs prediction is a very difficult and sophisticated task especially when using manual calculation methods. This paper uses Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to develop a parametric cost-estimating model for site overhead cost in Egypt. Fifty-two actual real-life cases of building projects constructed in Egypt during the seven year period 2002-2009 were used as training materials. The neural network architecture is presented for the estimation of the site overhead costs as a percentage from the total project price.

  11. A model for estimation of potential generation of waste electrical and electronic equipment in Brazil

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Araujo, Marcelo Guimaraes; Magrini, Alessandra; Mahler, Claudio Fernando; Bilitewski, Bernd

    2012-02-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Literature of WEEE generation in developing countries is reviewed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We analyse existing estimates of WEEE generation for Brazil. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a model for WEEE generation estimate. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer WEEE generation of 3.77 kg/capita year for 2008 is estimated. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Use of constant lifetime should be avoided for non-mature market products. - Abstract: Sales of electrical and electronic equipment are increasing dramatically in developing countries. Usually, there are no reliable data about quantities of the waste generated. A new law for solid waste management was enacted in Brazil in 2010, and the infrastructure to treat this waste must be planned, considering the volumes of the different types of electrical and electronic equipment generated. This paper reviews the literature regarding estimation of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE), focusing on developing countries, particularly in Latin America. It briefly describes the current WEEE system in Brazil and presents an updated estimate of generation of WEEE. Considering the limited available data in Brazil, a model for WEEE generation estimation is proposed in which different methods are used for mature and non-mature market products. The results showed that the most important variable is the equipment lifetime, which requires a thorough understanding of consumer behavior to estimate. Since Brazil is a rapidly expanding market, the 'boom' in waste generation is still to come. In the near future, better data will provide more reliable estimation of waste generation and a clearer interpretation of the lifetime variable throughout the years.

  12. A Model for Human Interruptability: Experimental Evaluation and Automatic Estimation from Wearable Sensors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A Model for Human Interruptability: Experimental Evaluation and Automatic Estimation from Wearable Sensors Nicky Kern, Stavros Antifakos, Bernt Schiele Perceptual Computing and Computer Vision ETH Zurich sensors. It is scalable for a large number of sensors, contexts, and situations and allows for online

  13. Estimating Litter Decomposition Rate in Single-Pool Models Using Nonlinear Beta Regression

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thomas, David D.

    Estimating Litter Decomposition Rate in Single-Pool Models Using Nonlinear Beta Regression Etienne the performance of nonlinear regression using the beta distribution, which is well-suited to bounded data and this type of heteroscedasticity, to standard nonlinear regression (normal errors) on simulated and real

  14. Parameter Estimation and Model Discrimination for a Lithium-Ion Cell

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    -18 This interest has been fueled by the combination of the fast growing lithium-ion battery market and the desireParameter Estimation and Model Discrimination for a Lithium-Ion Cell Shriram Santhanagopalan parameters using nonlinear regression from experimental charge/ discharge curves of a lithium-ion cell

  15. SO2 emissions and lifetimes: Estimates from inverse modeling using in situ and global, spacebased

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dickerson, Russell R.

    SO2 emissions and lifetimes: Estimates from inverse modeling using in situ and global, spacebased 18 March 2011. [1] Topdown constraints on global sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions are inferred through of GEOSChem for inversion of SO2 columns to emissions. The seasonal mean SO2 lifetime calculated with the GEOS

  16. Robust Estimation and Outlier Detection for Overdispersed Multinomial Models of Count Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sekhon, Jasjeet S.

    Robust Estimation and Outlier Detection for Overdispersed Multinomial Models of Count Data Walter R research on labor rela- tions (Card 1990), the relationship between patents and R&D (Hausman, Hall counts in political science includes studies of child care services (Bratton and Ray 2002), gender

  17. Atmospheric Environment 39 (2005) 13731382 A hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate and forecast ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Irwin, Mark E.

    2005-01-01

    conditional on observed (or forecasted) meteorology including temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind speed, defining the spatial­temporal extent of episodes of dangerous air quality, forecasting urban and areaAtmospheric Environment 39 (2005) 1373­1382 A hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate and forecast

  18. Development of Property-Transfer Models for Estimating the Hydraulic Properties of Deep

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Development of Property-Transfer Models for Estimating the Hydraulic Properties of Deep Sediments at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, Idaho Scientific Investigations Report 2005 Survey DOE/ID-22196 #12;Cover: Graph showing example of water-retention (q(y)) curve showing components

  19. Estimating Water Quality Pollution Impacts Based on Economic Loss Models in Urbanization Process

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yu, Qian

    Estimating Water Quality Pollution Impacts Based on Economic Loss Models in Urbanization Process Abstract: The study investigates water quality pollution impacts on urbanization by analyzing temporal the greatest contributors of surface water quality pollution from 1996 to 2003. High values existed

  20. Parameter Estimation and Life Modeling of Lithium-Ion Cells Shriram Santhanagopalan,*,a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parameter Estimation and Life Modeling of Lithium-Ion Cells Shriram Santhanagopalan,*,a Qi Zhang Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina 29208, USA Lithium-ion pouch cells were cycled at five different. The lithium-ion cell is among the most popular candidates con- sidered actively as a replacement for nickel

  1. Estimate of recharge from radiocarbon dating of groundwater and numerical flow and transport modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Chen

    of radioactive waste repositories. A case study of a regional aquifer in northeastern Arizona shows the rechargeEstimate of recharge from radiocarbon dating of groundwater and numerical flow and transport ages using a linked numerical 14 C transport and flow model while hydraulic conductivity values

  2. Edinburgh Research Explorer Comparison of models for estimation of long-term exposure to

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Millar, Andrew J.

    -term exposure to air pollution in cohort studies' Atmospheric Environment, vol 62, pp. 530-539., 10.1016/j to Air Pollution in Cohort Studies Beverland, I.J.* Department of Civil Engineering, University.L. and Agius, R.M. (2012) Comparison of models for estimation of long-term exposure to air pollution in cohort

  3. Estimation of Distributed Parameters in Permittivity Models of Composite Dielectric Materials Using

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    such as ceramic matrix composites (CMC's) are currently being studied for their use in a wide rangeEstimation of Distributed Parameters in Permittivity Models of Composite Dielectric Materials Using the feasibility of quantifying properties of a composite dielectric ma- terial through the reflectance, where

  4. ASSESSMENT OF THE MODELS FOR THE ESTIMATION OF THE CO2 RELEASES TOXIC EFFECTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    the global warming due to high concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. However, in case of massive accidental to specific properties regarding its triple point. Then, this CO2 flakes creation may be followed1 ASSESSMENT OF THE MODELS FOR THE ESTIMATION OF THE CO2 RELEASES TOXIC EFFECTS Frédéric Antoine

  5. JOHNSON, EVERINGHAM: CLUSTERED MODELS FOR HUMAN POSE ESTIMATION 1 Clustered Pose and Nonlinear Appearance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Everingham, Mark

    Appearance Models for Human Pose Estimation Sam Johnson s.a.johnson04@leeds.ac.uk Mark Everingham m.everingham@leeds.ac.uk School of Computing University of Leeds Leeds, UK Abstract We investigate the task of 2D articulated parts e.g. labeling the position and orientation of the head, torso, arms and legs in an image

  6. Comparison of model estimates of the effects of aviation emissions on atmospheric ozone and methane

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacobson, Mark

    of the world econ- omy and demand for aviation and its emissions are expected to increase in the future from aviation (mainly carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapor (H2O), nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2), VOCsComparison of model estimates of the effects of aviation emissions on atmospheric ozone and methane

  7. Parameter Estimation and Capacity Fade Analysis of Lithium-Ion Batteries Using First-Principles-Based Efficient Reformulated Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Subramanian, Venkat

    Parameter Estimation and Capacity Fade Analysis of Lithium-Ion Batteries Using First parameters of lithium-ion batteries are estimated using a first-principles electrochemical engineering model and understanding of lithium-ion batteries using physics-based first-principles models. These models are based

  8. Estimating Bacteria Emissions from Inversion of Atmospheric Transport: Sensitivity to Modelled Particle Characteristics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burrows, Susannah M.; Rayner, Perter; Butler, T.; Lawrence, M.

    2013-06-04

    Model-simulated transport of atmospheric trace components can be combined with observed concentrations to obtain estimates of ground-based sources using various inversion techniques. These approaches have been applied in the past primarily to obtain source estimates for long-lived trace gases such as CO2. We consider the application of similar techniques to source estimation for atmospheric aerosols, by using as a case study the estimation of bacteria emissions from different ecosystem regions in the global atmospheric chemistry and climate model ECHAM5/MESSy-Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC). Simulated particle concentrations in the tropopause region and at high latitudes, as well as transport of particles to tundra and land ice regions are shown to be highly sensitive to scavenging in mixed-phase clouds, which is poorly characterized in most global climate models. This may be a critical uncertainty in correctly simulating the transport of aerosol particles to the Arctic. Source estimation via Monte Carlo Markov Chain is applied to a suite of sensitivity simulations and the global mean emissions are estimated. We present an analysis of the partitioning of uncertainties in the global mean emissions that are attributable to particle size, CCN activity, the ice nucleation scavenging ratios for mixed-phase and cold clouds, and measurement error. Uncertainty due to CCN activity or to a 1 um error in particle size is typically between 10% and 40% of the uncertainty due to data uncertainty, as measured by the 5%-ile to 95%-ile range of the Monte Carlo ensemble. Uncertainty attributable to the ice nucleation scavenging ratio in mized-phase clouds is as high as 10% to 20% of the data uncertainty. Taken together, the four model 20 parameters examined contribute about half as much to the uncertainty in the estimated emissions as do the measurements. This was a surprisingly large contribution from model uncertainty in light of the substantial data uncertainty, which ranges from 81% to 870% for each of ten ecosystems for this case study. The effects of these and other model parameters in contributing to the uncertainties in the transport of atmospheric aerosol particles should be treated explicitly and systematically in both forward and inverse modelling studies.

  9. The Sun, stellar-population models, and the age estimation of high-redshift galaxies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Louisa A. Nolan; James S. Dunlop; Raul Jimenez

    2000-10-24

    Given sufficiently deep optical spectroscopy, the age estimation of high-redshif t ($z > 1$) galaxies has been claimed to be a relatively robust process (e.g. Dunlop et al. 1996) due to the fact that, for ages $< 5$Gyr, the near-ultraviolet light of a stellar population is expected to be dominated by `well-understood' main-sequence (MS) stars. Recently, however, the reliability of this process has been called into question by Yi et al (2000), who claim to have developed models in which the spectrum produced by the main sequence reddens much more rapidly than in the models of Jimenez et al (2000a), leading to much younger age estimates for the reddest known high-redshift ellipticals. In support of their revised age estimates, Yi et al cite the fact that their models can reproduce the spectrum of the Sun at an age of 5 Gyr, whereas the solar spectrum is not reproduced by the Jimenez et al models until $\\simeq 10$ Gyr. Here we confirm this discrepancy, but point out that this is in fact a {\\it strength} of the Jimenez et al models and indicative of some flaw in the models of Yi et al (which, in effect, imply that the Sun will turn into a red giant any minute now). We have also explored the models of Worthey (1994) (which are known to differ greatly from those of Jimenez et al in the treatment of post-MS evolution) and find that the main-sequence component of Worthey's models also cannot reproduce the solar spectrum until an age of 9-10 Gyr. We conclude that either the models of Yi et al are not as main-sequence dominated at 4-5 Gyr as claimed, or that the stellar evolutionary timescale in these models is in error by a factor possibly as high as two. (abridged)

  10. Estimation of a supply and demand model for the hired farm labor market in Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Turley, Keith Pool

    1977-01-01

    ESTIMATION OF A SUPPLY AND DEMAND MODEL FOR THE HIRED FARM LABOR MARKET IN TEXAS A Thesis by KEITH POOL TURLEY Submitted to the Craduate College of Texas ARM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER... Or SCIENCI. December 1977 Major Subject: Agricultural Economics ESTIMATION OF A SUPPLY AND DEMAND NODEL FOR THE HIRED FARM LABOR MARKET IN TEXAS A Thesis by KEITH POOL TURLEY Approved as to style and content by: Ch rman of Comm' tee) Member Mem r...

  11. Estimating a model discrepancy term for the Community Land Model using latent heat and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ray, Jaideep

    system models; coupled to an atmosphere & ocean model · Can be used in global (gridded) mode or locally calibration = O(104) #12;What is CLM? · A model for biogeochemical & hydrological processes · Used in Earth

  12. Review of uncertainty estimates associated with models for assessing the impact of breeder reactor radioactivity releases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, C.; Little, C.A.

    1982-08-01

    The purpose is to summarize estimates based on currently available data of the uncertainty associated with radiological assessment models. The models being examined herein are those recommended previously for use in breeder reactor assessments. Uncertainty estimates are presented for models of atmospheric and hydrologic transport, terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and internal and external dosimetry. Both long-term and short-term release conditions are discussed. The uncertainty estimates presented in this report indicate that, for many sites, generic models and representative parameter values may be used to calculate doses from annual average radionuclide releases when these calculated doses are on the order of one-tenth or less of a relevant dose limit. For short-term, accidental releases, especially those from breeder reactors located in sites dominated by complex terrain and/or coastal meteorology, the uncertainty in the dose calculations may be much larger than an order of magnitude. As a result, it may be necessary to incorporate site-specific information into the dose calculation under these circumstances to reduce this uncertainty. However, even using site-specific information, natural variability and the uncertainties in the dose conversion factor will likely result in an overall uncertainty of greater than an order of magnitude for predictions of dose or concentration in environmental media following shortterm releases.

  13. Estimating Loss-of-Coolant Accident Frequencies for the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. A. Eide; D. M. Rasmuson; C. L. Atwood

    2008-09-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission maintains a set of risk models covering the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. These standardized plant analysis risk (SPAR) models include several loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) initiating events such as small (SLOCA), medium (MLOCA), and large (LLOCA). All of these events involve a loss of coolant inventory from the reactor coolant system. In order to maintain a level of consistency across these models, initiating event frequencies generally are based on plant-type average performance, where the plant types are boiling water reactors and pressurized water reactors. For certain risk analyses, these plant-type initiating event frequencies may be replaced by plant-specific estimates. Frequencies for SPAR LOCA initiating events previously were based on results presented in NUREG/CR-5750, but the newest models use results documented in NUREG/CR-6928. The estimates in NUREG/CR-6928 are based on historical data from the initiating events database for pressurized water reactor SLOCA or an interpretation of results presented in the draft version of NUREG-1829. The information in NUREG-1829 can be used several ways, resulting in different estimates for the various LOCA frequencies. Various ways NUREG-1829 information can be used to estimate LOCA frequencies were investigated and this paper presents two methods for the SPAR model standard inputs, which differ from the method used in NUREG/CR-6928. In addition, results obtained from NUREG-1829 are compared with actual operating experience as contained in the initiating events database.

  14. An ensemble Kalman filter for statistical estimation of physics constrained nonlinear regression models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harlim, John; Mahdi, Adam; Majda, Andrew J.

    2014-01-15

    A central issue in contemporary science is the development of nonlinear data driven statistical–dynamical models for time series of noisy partial observations from nature or a complex model. It has been established recently that ad-hoc quadratic multi-level regression models can have finite-time blow-up of statistical solutions and/or pathological behavior of their invariant measure. Recently, a new class of physics constrained nonlinear regression models were developed to ameliorate this pathological behavior. Here a new finite ensemble Kalman filtering algorithm is developed for estimating the state, the linear and nonlinear model coefficients, the model and the observation noise covariances from available partial noisy observations of the state. Several stringent tests and applications of the method are developed here. In the most complex application, the perfect model has 57 degrees of freedom involving a zonal (east–west) jet, two topographic Rossby waves, and 54 nonlinearly interacting Rossby waves; the perfect model has significant non-Gaussian statistics in the zonal jet with blocked and unblocked regimes and a non-Gaussian skewed distribution due to interaction with the other 56 modes. We only observe the zonal jet contaminated by noise and apply the ensemble filter algorithm for estimation. Numerically, we find that a three dimensional nonlinear stochastic model with one level of memory mimics the statistical effect of the other 56 modes on the zonal jet in an accurate fashion, including the skew non-Gaussian distribution and autocorrelation decay. On the other hand, a similar stochastic model with zero memory levels fails to capture the crucial non-Gaussian behavior of the zonal jet from the perfect 57-mode model.

  15. Glass Property Data and Models for Estimating High-Level Waste Glass Volume

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vienna, John D.; Fluegel, Alexander; Kim, Dong-Sang; Hrma, Pavel R.

    2009-10-05

    This report describes recent efforts to develop glass property models that can be used to help estimate the volume of high-level waste (HLW) glass that will result from vitrification of Hanford tank waste. The compositions of acceptable and processable HLW glasses need to be optimized to minimize the waste-form volume and, hence, to save cost. A database of properties and associated compositions for simulated waste glasses was collected for developing property-composition models. This database, although not comprehensive, represents a large fraction of data on waste-glass compositions and properties that were available at the time of this report. Glass property-composition models were fit to subsets of the database for several key glass properties. These models apply to a significantly broader composition space than those previously publised. These models should be considered for interim use in calculating properties of Hanford waste glasses.

  16. Attempt to estimate measurement uncertainty in the Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zettlemoyer, M.D.

    1990-01-01

    The Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model is a Gaussian puff dispersion model that predicts plumes, concentrations, and hazard distances of toxic chemical spills. A measurement uncertainty propagation formula derived by Freeman et al. (1986) is used within AFTOX to estimate resulting concentration uncertainties due to the effects of data input uncertainties in wind speed, spill height, emission rate, and the horizontal and vertical Gaussian dispersion parameters, and the results are compared to true uncertainties as estimated by standard deviations computed by Monte Carlo simulations. The measurement uncertainty uncertainty propagation formula was found to overestimate measurement uncertainty in AFTOX-calculated concentrations by at least 350 percent, with overestimates worsening with increasing stability and/or increasing measurement uncertainty.

  17. Modeling, Real-Time Estimation, and Identification of UWB Indoor Wireless Channels

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olama, Mohammed M [ORNL] [ORNL; Djouadi, Seddik M [ORNL] [ORNL; Li, Yanyan [ORNL] [ORNL; Fathy, Aly [University of Tennessee (UT)] [University of Tennessee (UT)

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are used to model ultrawideband (UWB) indoor wireless channels. We show that the impulse responses for time-varying indoor wireless channels can be approximated in a mean square sense as close as desired by impulse responses that can be realized by SDEs. The state variables represent the inphase and quadrature components of the UWB channel. The expected maximization and extended Kalman filter are employed to recursively identify and estimate the channel parameters and states, respectively, from online received signal strength measured data. Both resolvable and non-resolvable multipath received signals are considered and represented as small-scaled Nakagami fading. The proposed models together with the estimation algorithm are tested using UWB indoor measurement data demonstrating the method s viability and the results are presented.

  18. Modeling and estimation in Gaussian graphical models : maximum-entropy methods and walk-sum analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chandrasekaran, Venkat

    2007-01-01

    Graphical models provide a powerful formalism for statistical signal processing. Due to their sophisticated modeling capabilities, they have found applications in a variety of fields such as computer vision, image processing, ...

  19. Evolution of Meteorological Base Models for Estimating Hourly Global Solar Radiation in Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, H.; Baltazar, J.C.; Haberl, J.S

    2013-01-01

    -11-01 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Energy Procedia 00 (2013) 000–000 www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia 2013 ISES Solar World Congress Evaluation of Meteorological Base Models for Estimating Hourly Global Solar Radiation in Texas Kee Han..., U.S.A. Abstract Building thermal performance and potential solar applications depend on the quality of the solar resource data available. Unfortunately, most of the locations do not account for measured solar radiation data and, as a result, rely...

  20. ESTIMATING THE PROPERTIES OF HARD X-RAY SOLAR FLARES BY CONSTRAINING MODEL PARAMETERS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ireland, J. [ADNET Systems, Inc. at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Tolbert, A. K.; Schwartz, R. A. [Catholic University of America at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Holman, G. D.; Dennis, B. R. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 671, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States)

    2013-06-01

    We wish to better constrain the properties of solar flares by exploring how parameterized models of solar flares interact with uncertainty estimation methods. We compare four different methods of calculating uncertainty estimates in fitting parameterized models to Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager X-ray spectra, considering only statistical sources of error. Three of the four methods are based on estimating the scale-size of the minimum in a hypersurface formed by the weighted sum of the squares of the differences between the model fit and the data as a function of the fit parameters, and are implemented as commonly practiced. The fourth method is also based on the difference between the data and the model, but instead uses Bayesian data analysis and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to calculate an uncertainty estimate. Two flare spectra are modeled: one from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X1.3 class flare of 2005 January 19, and the other from the X4.8 flare of 2002 July 23. We find that the four methods give approximately the same uncertainty estimates for the 2005 January 19 spectral fit parameters, but lead to very different uncertainty estimates for the 2002 July 23 spectral fit. This is because each method implements different analyses of the hypersurface, yielding method-dependent results that can differ greatly depending on the shape of the hypersurface. The hypersurface arising from the 2005 January 19 analysis is consistent with a normal distribution; therefore, the assumptions behind the three non-Bayesian uncertainty estimation methods are satisfied and similar estimates are found. The 2002 July 23 analysis shows that the hypersurface is not consistent with a normal distribution, indicating that the assumptions behind the three non-Bayesian uncertainty estimation methods are not satisfied, leading to differing estimates of the uncertainty. We find that the shape of the hypersurface is crucial in understanding the output from each uncertainty estimation technique, and that a crucial factor determining the shape of hypersurface is the location of the low-energy cutoff relative to energies where the thermal emission dominates. The Bayesian/MCMC approach also allows us to provide detailed information on probable values of the low-energy cutoff, E{sub c} , a crucial parameter in defining the energy content of the flare-accelerated electrons. We show that for the 2002 July 23 flare data, there is a 95% probability that E{sub c} lies below approximately 40 keV, and a 68% probability that it lies in the range 7-36 keV. Further, the low-energy cutoff is more likely to be in the range 25-35 keV than in any other 10 keV wide energy range. The low-energy cutoff for the 2005 January 19 flare is more tightly constrained to 107 {+-} 4 keV with 68% probability. Using the Bayesian/MCMC approach, we also estimate for the first time probability density functions for the total number of flare-accelerated electrons and the energy they carry for each flare studied. For the 2002 July 23 event, these probability density functions are asymmetric with long tails orders of magnitude higher than the most probable value, caused by the poorly constrained value of the low-energy cutoff. The most probable electron power is estimated at 10{sup 28.1} erg s{sup -1}, with a 68% credible interval estimated at 10{sup 28.1}-10{sup 29.0} erg s{sup -1}, and a 95% credible interval estimated at 10{sup 28.0}-10{sup 30.2} erg s{sup -1}. For the 2005 January 19 flare spectrum, the probability density functions for the total number of flare-accelerated electrons and their energy are much more symmetric and narrow: the most probable electron power is estimated at 10{sup 27.66{+-}0.01} erg s{sup -1} (68% credible intervals). However, in this case the uncertainty due to systematic sources of error is estimated to dominate the uncertainty due to statistical sources of error.

  1. Modeling Estimated Personnel Needs for a Potential Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreak

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simmons, K; Hullinger, P

    2008-01-29

    Foot and Mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and contagious viral disease affecting cloven-hoofed livestock that was last detected in the United States (US) in 1929. The prevalence of FMD in other countries, as well as the current potential for this virus to be used as a form of agroterrorism, has made preparations for a potential FMD outbreak a national priority. To assist in the evaluation of national preparedness, all 50 states were surveyed via e-mail, telephone and web search to obtain emergency response plans for FMD or for foreign animal diseases in general. Information from 33 states was obtained and analyzed for estimates of personnel resources needed to respond to an outbreak. These estimates were consolidated and enhanced to create a tool that could be used by individual states to better understand the personnel that would be needed to complete various tasks over time during an outbreak response. The estimates were then coupled, post-processing, to the output from FMD outbreaks simulated in California using the Multiscale Epidemiological/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) model at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to estimate the personnel resource demands, by task, over the course of an outbreak response.

  2. A Biomass-based Model to Estimate the Plausibility of Exoplanet Biosignature Gases

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seager, S; Hu, R

    2013-01-01

    Biosignature gas detection is one of the ultimate future goals for exoplanet atmosphere studies. We have created a framework for linking biosignature gas detectability to biomass estimates, including atmospheric photochemistry and biological thermodynamics. The new framework is intended to liberate predictive atmosphere models from requiring fixed, Earth-like biosignature gas source fluxes. New biosignature gases can be considered with a check that the biomass estimate is physically plausible. We have validated the models on terrestrial production of NO, H2S, CH4, CH3Cl, and DMS. We have applied the models to propose NH3 as a biosignature gas on a "cold Haber World," a planet with a N2-H2 atmosphere, and to demonstrate why gases such as CH3Cl must have too large of a biomass to be a plausible biosignature gas on planets with Earth or early-Earth-like atmospheres orbiting a Sun-like star. To construct the biomass models, we developed a functional classification of biosignature gases, and found that gases (such...

  3. Using Pre-Modeled Scenarios to Estimate Groundwater VOC Concentrations Resulting from Vadose Zone Sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oostrom, Martinus; Truex, Michael J.; Rice, Amy K.; Johnson, Christian D.; Carroll, Kenneth C.; Becker, Dave; Simon, Michelle A.

    2014-04-28

    Soil vapor extraction (SVE) is a prevalent remediation approach for volatile contaminants in the vadose zone. To support selection of an appropriate endpoint for the SVE remedy, an evaluation is needed to determine whether vadose zone contamination has been diminished sufficiently to protect groundwater. When vapor-phase transport is an important component of the overall contaminant fate and transport from a vadose zone source, the contaminant concentration expected in groundwater is controlled by a limited set of parameters, including specific site dimensions, vadose zone properties, and source characteristics. An approach was developed for estimating the contaminant concentration in groundwater resulting from a contaminant source in the vadose zone based on pre-modeling contaminant transport for a matrix of parameter value combinations covering a range of potential site conditions. An interpolation and scaling process are then applied to estimate groundwater impact for site-specific conditions.

  4. Off-Highway Gasoline Consuption Estimation Models Used in the Federal Highway Administration Attribution Process: 2008 Updates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, Ho-Ling; Davis, Stacy Cagle

    2009-12-01

    This report is designed to document the analysis process and estimation models currently used by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to estimate the off-highway gasoline consumption and public sector fuel consumption. An overview of the entire FHWA attribution process is provided along with specifics related to the latest update (2008) on the Off-Highway Gasoline Use Model and the Public Use of Gasoline Model. The Off-Highway Gasoline Use Model is made up of five individual modules, one for each of the off-highway categories: agricultural, industrial and commercial, construction, aviation, and marine. This 2008 update of the off-highway models was the second major update (the first model update was conducted during 2002-2003) after they were originally developed in mid-1990. The agricultural model methodology, specifically, underwent a significant revision because of changes in data availability since 2003. Some revision to the model was necessary due to removal of certain data elements used in the original estimation method. The revised agricultural model also made use of some newly available information, published by the data source agency in recent years. The other model methodologies were not drastically changed, though many data elements were updated to improve the accuracy of these models. Note that components in the Public Use of Gasoline Model were not updated in 2008. A major challenge in updating estimation methods applied by the public-use model is that they would have to rely on significant new data collection efforts. In addition, due to resource limitation, several components of the models (both off-highway and public-us models) that utilized regression modeling approaches were not recalibrated under the 2008 study. An investigation of the Environmental Protection Agency's NONROAD2005 model was also carried out under the 2008 model update. Results generated from the NONROAD2005 model were analyzed, examined, and compared, to the extent that is possible on the overall totals, to the current FHWA estimates. Because NONROAD2005 model was designed for emission estimation purposes (i.e., not for measuring fuel consumption), it covers different equipment populations from those the FHWA models were based on. Thus, a direct comparison generally was not possible in most sectors. As a result, NONROAD2005 data were not used in the 2008 update of the FHWA off-highway models. The quality of fuel use estimates directly affect the data quality in many tables published in the Highway Statistics. Although updates have been made to the Off-Highway Gasoline Use Model and the Public Use Gasoline Model, some challenges remain due to aging model equations and discontinuation of data sources.

  5. Effects of uncertainty in rock-physics models on reservoirparameter estimation using marine seismic AVA and CSEM data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Jinsong; Dickens, Thomas

    2007-04-09

    This study investigates the effects of uncertainty inrockphysics models on estimates of reservoir parameters from jointinversion of seismic AVA and CSEMdata. The reservoir parameters arerelated to electrical resistivity using Archie's law, and to seismicvelocity and density using the Xu-White model. To account for errors inthe rock-physics models, we use two methods to handle uncertainty: (1)the model outputs are random functions with modes or means given by themodel predictions, and (2) the parameters of the models are themselvesrandom variables. Using a stochastic framework and Markov Chain MonteCarlo methods, we obtain estimates of reservoir parameters as well as ofthe uncertainty in the estimates. Synthetic case studies show thatuncertainties in both rock-physics models and their associated parameterscan have significant effects on estimates of reservoir parameters. Ourmethod provides a means of quantifying how the uncertainty in theestimated reservoir parameters increases with increasing uncertainty inthe rock-physics model and in the model parameters. We find that in theexample we present, the estimation of water saturation is relatively lessaffected than is the estimation of clay content and porosity.

  6. Wind Bias from Sub-optimal Estimation Due to Geophysical Modeling Error Paul E. Johnson and David G . Long

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Long, David G.

    Wind Bias from Sub-optimal Estimation Due to Geophysical Modeling Error -Wind I Paul E. Johnson (which relates the wind to the normalized radar cross section, NRCS, of the ocean surface) is uncertainty in the NRCS for given wind conditions. When the estimated variability is in- cluded in the maximum likelihood

  7. 686 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON MAGNETICS, VOL. 44, NO. 6, JUNE 2008 Estimating the Eddy-Current Modeling Error

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rauhut, Holger

    686 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON MAGNETICS, VOL. 44, NO. 6, JUNE 2008 Estimating the Eddy-Current Modeling Zurich, CH-8092 Zürich, Switzerland The eddy-current model is an approximation of the full Maxwell delivers a mathematical basis for assessing the scope of the eddy-current model. Index Terms--Eddy current

  8. MM versus ML estimates of structural equation models with interaction terms: robustness to non-normality of the consistency property

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mooijaart, Ab; Satorra, Albert

    2011-01-01

    of-?t summaries for the MM method degrees of freedom chi-regarding the robustness of the MM method to non-normality.MM versus ML estimates of structural equation models with

  9. The Application of a Genetic Algorithm to Estimate Material Properties for Fire Modeling from Bench-Scale Fire Test Data 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lautenberger, Chris; Rein, Guillermo; Fernandez-Pello, Carlos

    A methodology based on an automated optimization technique that uses a genetic algorithm (GA) is developed to estimate the material properties needed for CFD-based fire growth modeling from bench-scale fire test data. ...

  10. A mathematical model for the estimation of flue temperature in a coke oven

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Choi, K.I.; Kim, S.Y.; Suo, J.S.; Hur, N.S.; Kang, I.S.; Lee, W.J.

    1997-12-31

    The coke plants at the Kwangyang works has adopted an Automatic Battery Control (ABC) system which consists of four main parts, battery heating control, underfiring heat and waste gas oxygen control, pushing and charging schedule and Autotherm-S that measures heating wall temperature during pushing. The measured heating wall temperature is used for calculating Mean Battery Temperature (MBT) which is average temperature of flues for a battery, but the Autotherm-S system can not provide the flue temperatures of an oven. This work attempted to develop mathematical models for the estimation of the flue temperature using the measured heating wall temperature and to examine fitness of the mathematical model for the coke plant operation by analysis of raw gas temperature at the stand pipe. Through this work it is possible to reflect heating wall temperature in calculating MBT for battery heating control without the interruption caused by a maintenance break.

  11. Global self-weighted and local quasi-maximum exponential likelihood estimators for ARMA--GARCH/IGARCH models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Ke; 10.1214/11-AOS895

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the asymptotic theory of the quasi-maximum exponential likelihood estimators (QMELE) for ARMA--GARCH models. Under only a fractional moment condition, the strong consistency and the asymptotic normality of the global self-weighted QMELE are obtained. Based on this self-weighted QMELE, the local QMELE is showed to be asymptotically normal for the ARMA model with GARCH (finite variance) and IGARCH errors. A formal comparison of two estimators is given for some cases. A simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of these estimators, and a real example on the world crude oil price is given.

  12. A MODELING APPROACH TO ESTIMATING SNOW COVER DEPLETION AND SOIL MOISTURE RECHARGE IN A SEMI-ARID CLIMATE AT TWO NASA CLPX

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anderson, Charles W.

    THESIS A MODELING APPROACH TO ESTIMATING SNOW COVER DEPLETION AND SOIL MOISTURE RECHARGE IN A SEMI A MODELING APPROACH TO ESTIMATING SNOW COVER DEPLETION AND SOIL MOISTURE RECHARGE IN A SEMI-ARID CLIMATE ________________________________________ Department Head #12;iii ABSTRACT A MODELING APPROACH TO ESTIMATING SNOW COVER DEPLETION AND SOIL MOISTURE

  13. Improving parameter estimation and water table depth simulation in a land surface model using GRACE water storage and estimated base flow data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lo, Min-Hui; Famiglietti, James S; Yeh, P. J.-F.; Syed, T. H

    2010-01-01

    Calibration Using GRACE Data and Base Flow Estimates [ 17 ]ESTIMATION USING GRACE DATA base flow data. In this casemeasured GRACE data and estimated base flow simultaneously

  14. Modelling estimation on the impacts of global warming on rice production in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang Futang

    1997-12-31

    In this paper, based on the validation and sensitivity analyses of two rice growth models (ORYZA1 and DRISIC--Double Rice Cropping Simulation Model for China), and their joining with global warming scenarios projected by GCMs (GFDL, UKMO-H, MPI and DKRZ OPYC, DKRZ LSG, respectively), the modelling experiments were carried out on the potential impacts of global warming on rice production in China. The results show that although there are the some features for each rice cropping patterns because of different models and estimated methods, the rice production for all cropping patterns in China will trend to decrease with different degrees. In average, early, middle and later rice production, as well as, double-early and double-later rice production in different areas of China will decrease 3.7%, 10.5% and 10.4%, as well as, 15.9% and 14.4%, respectively. It do illustrates that the advantage effects induced by elevated CO{sub 2} concentration on photosynthesis does not compensate the adverse effects of temperature increase. Thus, it is necessary to adjusting rice cropping patterns, cultivars and farming techniques to the global warming timely.

  15. Importance of exposure model in estimating impacts when a water distribution system is contaminated.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, M. J.; Janke, R.; Environmental Science Division; USEPA

    2008-09-01

    The quantity of a contaminant ingested by individuals using tap water drawn from a water distribution system during a contamination event depends on the concentration of the contaminant in the water and the volume of water ingested. If the concentration varies with time, the actual time of exposure affects the quantity ingested. The influence of the timing of exposure and of individual variability in the volume of water ingested on estimated impacts for a contamination event has received limited attention. We examine the significance of ingestion timing and variability in the volume of water ingested by using a number of models for ingestion timing and volume. Contaminant concentrations were obtained from simulations of an actual distribution system for cases involving contaminant injections lasting from 1 to 24 h. We find that assumptions about exposure can significantly influence estimated impacts, especially when injection durations are short and impact thresholds are high. The influence of ingestion timing and volume should be considered when assessing impacts for contamination events.

  16. CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response): A Generic Transportation Network Model for the Calculation of Evacuation Time Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Moeller, M. P.; Urbanik, II, T.; Desrosiers, A. E.

    1982-03-01

    This paper describes the methodology and application of the computer model CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response) which estimates the time required for a specific population density and distribution to evacuate an area using a specific transportation network. The CLEAR model simulates vehicle departure and movement on a transportation network according to the conditions and consequences of traffic flow. These include handling vehicles at intersecting road segments, calculating the velocity of travel on a road segment as a function of its vehicle density, and accounting for the delay of vehicles in traffic queues. The program also models the distribution of times required by individuals to prepare for an evacuation. In order to test its accuracy, the CLEAR model was used to estimate evacuatlon tlmes for the emergency planning zone surrounding the Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Plant. The Beaver Valley site was selected because evacuation time estimates had previously been prepared by the licensee, Duquesne Light, as well as by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. A lack of documentation prevented a detailed comparison of the estimates based on the CLEAR model and those obtained by Duquesne Light. However, the CLEAR model results compared favorably with the estimates prepared by the other two agencies.

  17. Moment-Based Probability Modeling and Extreme Response Estimation, The FITS Routine Version 1.2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MANUEL,LANCE; KASHEF,TINA; WINTERSTEIN,STEVEN R.

    1999-11-01

    This report documents the use of the FITS routine, which provides automated fits of various analytical, commonly used probability models from input data. It is intended to complement the previously distributed FITTING routine documented in RMS Report 14 (Winterstein et al., 1994), which implements relatively complex four-moment distribution models whose parameters are fit with numerical optimization routines. Although these four-moment fits can be quite useful and faithful to the observed data, their complexity can make them difficult to automate within standard fitting algorithms. In contrast, FITS provides more robust (lower moment) fits of simpler, more conventional distribution forms. For each database of interest, the routine estimates the distribution of annual maximum response based on the data values and the duration, T, over which they were recorded. To focus on the upper tails of interest, the user can also supply an arbitrary lower-bound threshold, {chi}{sub low}, above which a shifted distribution model--exponential or Weibull--is fit.

  18. Effects of uncertainty in rock-physics models on reservoir parameter estimation using marine seismic AVA and CSEM data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Jinsong

    seismic AVA and CSEM data Jinsong Chen*, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Thomas Dickens, ExxonMobil models on estimates of reservoir parameters from joint inversion of seismic AVA and CSEM data. The reser and CSEM data. In practice, model parameters are often derived from nearby well logs. First, an appropriate

  19. Global estimation of evapotranspiration using a leaf area index-based surface energy and water balance model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Martin, Timothy

    -relative-humidity-based two-source (ARTS) E model that simulates the surface energy balance, soil water balanceGlobal estimation of evapotranspiration using a leaf area index-based surface energy and water balance model H. Yan a, , S.Q. Wang b , D. Billesbach c , W. Oechel d , J.H. Zhang e , T. Meyers f , T

  20. Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, A.; Weaver, C. P.; Morefield, Philip; Huang, Jin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, P. J.; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, J.; Mahoney, Hardee

    2012-11-01

    Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices.

  1. Adaptive nonparametric estimation in heteroscedastic regression models. Part 1: Sharp non-asymptotic Oracle inequalities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Galtchouk, Leonid

    2008-01-01

    An adaptive nonparametric estimation procedure is constructed for the estimation problem of heteroscedastic regression when the noise variance depends on the unknown regression. A non-asymptotic upper bound for a quadratic risk (an oracle inequality) is constructed.

  2. Capital Requirements Estimating Model (CREMOD) for electric utilities. Volume I. Methodology description, model, description, and guide to model applications. [For each year up to 1990

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Collins, D E; Gammon, J; Shaw, M L

    1980-01-01

    The Capital Requirements Estimating Model for the Electric Utilities (CREMOD) is a system of programs and data files used to estimate the capital requirements of the electric utility industry for each year between the current one and 1990. CREMOD disaggregates new electric plant capacity levels from the Mid-term Energy Forecasting System (MEFS) Integrating Model solution over time using actual projected commissioning dates. It computes the effect on aggregate capital requirements of dispersal of new plant and capital expenditures over relatively long construction lead times on aggregate capital requirements for each year. Finally, it incorporates the effects of real escalation in the electric utility construction industry on these requirements and computes the necessary transmission and distribution expenditures. This model was used in estimating the capital requirements of the electric utility sector. These results were used in compilation of the aggregate capital requirements for the financing of energy development as published in the 1978 Annual Report to Congress. This volume, Vol. I, explains CREMOD's methodology, functions, and applications.

  3. Using coronal seismology to estimate the magnetic field strength in a realistic coronal model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Feng

    2015-01-01

    Coronal seismology is extensively used to estimate properties of the corona, e.g. the coronal magnetic field strength are derived from oscillations observed in coronal loops. We present a three-dimensional coronal simulation including a realistic energy balance in which we observe oscillations of a loop in synthesised coronal emission. We use these results to test the inversions based on coronal seismology. From the simulation of the corona above an active region we synthesise extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emission from the model corona. From this we derive maps of line intensity and Doppler shift providing synthetic data in the same format as obtained from observations. We fit the (Doppler) oscillation of the loop in the same fashion as done for observations to derive the oscillation period and damping time. The loop oscillation seen in our model is similar to imaging and spectroscopic observations of the Sun. The velocity disturbance of the kink oscillation shows an oscillation period of 52.5s and a damping tim...

  4. Experimental estimation of dynamic plastic bending moments by plastic hinge models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sogo, T.; Ujihashi, S.; Matsumoto, H.; Adachi, T.

    1995-12-31

    In the present paper, the experimental estimation of dynamic plastic bending moments for metallic materials is investigated. The three-point bending, test under impact and static loads is applied to aluminum alloy (JIS A6063S) and mild steel (JIS SS400). It is confirmed that tile dynamic bending deformations in three-point bending test can be modeled as a plastic hinge, tile experimental results show that the consumed energies of the specimens are proportional to the bending angles. The ratio of the consumed energy to the bending angle is approximately equal to the plastic bending moment. In the case of aluminum alloy, the dynamic plastic bending moments for the different average bending angular velocities coincide with the static plastic bending moments. On the other hand, in the case of mild steel, the dynamic plastic bending moments are proportional to the average bending angular velocities. As a result, we confirm that the present method based on the plastic hinge model and the consumed energy is efficient for determining tile dynamic plastic bending moment.

  5. Complexity penalized hydraulic fracture localization and moment tensor estimation under limited model information

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ely, Gregory

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we present a novel technique for micro-seismic localization using a group sparse penalization that is robust to the focal mechanism of the source and requires only a velocity model of the stratigraphy rather than a full Green's function model of the earth's response. In this technique we construct a set of perfect delta detector responses, one for each detector in the array, to a seismic event at a given location and impose a group sparsity across the array. This scheme is independent of the moment tensor and exploits the time compactness of the incident seismic signal. Furthermore we present a method for improving the inversion of the moment tensor and Green's function when the geometry of seismic array is limited. In particular we demonstrate that both Tikhonov regularization and truncated SVD can improve the recovery of the moment tensor and be robust to noise. We evaluate our algorithm on synthetic data and present error bounds for both estimation of the moment tensor as well as localization...

  6. Machine learning techniques for astrophysical modelling and photometric redshift estimation of quasars in optical sky surveys

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    N. Daniel Kumar

    2009-01-06

    Machine learning techniques are utilised in several areas of astrophysical research today. This dissertation addresses the application of ML techniques to two classes of problems in astrophysics, namely, the analysis of individual astronomical phenomena over time and the automated, simultaneous analysis of thousands of objects in large optical sky surveys. Specifically investigated are (1) techniques to approximate the precise orbits of the satellites of Jupiter and Saturn given Earth-based observations as well as (2) techniques to quickly estimate the distances of quasars observed in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Learning methods considered include genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimisation, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function networks. The first part of this dissertation demonstrates that GAs and PSO can both be efficiently used to model functions that are highly non-linear in several dimensions. It is subsequently demonstrated in the second part that ANNs and RBFNs can be used as effective predictors of spectroscopic redshift given accurate photometry, especially in combination with other learning-based approaches described in the literature. Careful application of these and other ML techniques to problems in astronomy and astrophysics will contribute to a better understanding of stellar evolution, binary star systems, cosmology, and the large-scale structure of the universe.

  7. Estimating present climate in a warming world: a model-based approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Raeisaenen, J.; Ruokolainen, L. [University of Helsinki (Finland). Division of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysics

    2008-09-30

    Weather services base their operational definitions of 'present' climate on past observations, using a 30-year normal period such as 1961-1990 or 1971-2000. In a world with ongoing global warming, however, past data give a biased estimate of the actual present-day climate. Here we propose to correct this bias with a 'delta change' method, in which model-simulated climate changes and observed global mean temperature changes are used to extrapolate past observations forward in time, to make them representative of present or future climate conditions. In a hindcast test for the years 1991-2002, the method works well for temperature, with a clear improvement in verification statistics compared to the case in which the hindcast is formed directly from the observations for 1961-1990. However, no improvement is found for precipitation, for which the signal-to-noise ratio between expected anthropogenic changes and interannual variability is much lower than for temperature. An application of the method to the present (around the year 2007) climate suggests that, as a geographical average over land areas excluding Antarctica, 8-9 months per year and 8-9 years per decade can be expected to be warmer than the median for 1971-2000. Along with the overall warming, a substantial increase in the frequency of warm extremes at the expense of cold extremes of monthly-to-annual temperature is expected.

  8. Lithium-Ion battery State of Charge estimation with a Kalman Filter based on a electrochemical model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stefanopoulou, Anna

    Lithium-Ion battery State of Charge estimation with a Kalman Filter based on a electrochemical model Domenico Di Domenico, Giovanni Fiengo and Anna Stefanopoulou Abstract-- Lithium-ion battery hybrid electric vehicles (HEV). In most cases the lithium-ion battery performance plays an important role

  9. Optimal estimation of catch by the continuous underway fish egg sampler based on a model of the vertical distribution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    deYoung, Brad

    modelling, catchability, fish eggs, sampling, survey design, uncertainty, vertical distribution. Received 28 an absolute measure of abundance, because gear avoidance is non-existent and the reten- tion efficiency of plankton nets can be estimated precisely (Lo, 1985). However, survey design and precision represent key

  10. ESTIMATION OF ETHANOL CONTENT IN FLEX-FUEL VEHICLES USING AN EXHAUST GAS OXYGEN SENSOR: MODEL, TUNING AND SENSITIVITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stefanopoulou, Anna

    ESTIMATION OF ETHANOL CONTENT IN FLEX-FUEL VEHICLES USING AN EXHAUST GAS OXYGEN SENSOR: MODEL periods of intense interest in using ethanol as an alternative fuel to petroleum-based gasoline and diesel derivatives. Currently available flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs) can operate on a blend of gasoline and ethanol

  11. Biometrics 000, 124 DOI: 000 A Bayesian localised conditional autoregressive model for estimating the health

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sahu, Sujit K

    for estimating the health effects of air pollution Duncan Lee1, , Alastair Rushworth1 and Sujit K. Sahu2 . 1.Lee@glasgow.ac.uk Summary: Estimation of the long-term health effects of air pollution is a challenging task, especially effects confound the effects of air pollution, which are also globally smooth. To avoid this collinearity

  12. Estimating suspended sediment concentrations in areas with limited hydrological data using a mixed-effects model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Venditti, Jeremy G.

    Estimating suspended sediment concentrations in areas with limited hydrological data using a mixed of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada Abstract: Sediment rating curves are commonly used to estimate the suspended sediment load in rivers and streams under the assumption

  13. A novel model and estimation method for the individual random component of earthquake ground-motion relations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raschke, Mathias

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, I introduce a novel approach to modelling the individual random component (also called the intra-event uncertainty) of a ground-motion relation (GMR), as well as a novel approach to estimating the corresponding parameters. In essence, I contend that the individual random component is reproduced adequately by a simple stochastic mechanism of random impulses acting in the horizontal plane, with random directions. The random number of impulses was Poisson distributed. The parameters of the model were estimated according to a proposal by Raschke (2013a), with the sample of random difference xi=ln(Y1)-ln(Y2), in which Y1 and Y2 are the horizontal components of local ground-motion intensity. Any GMR element was eliminated by subtraction, except the individual random components. In the estimation procedure the distribution of difference xi was approximated by combining a large Monte Carlo simulated sample and Kernel smoothing. The estimated model satisfactorily fitted the difference xi of the sample o...

  14. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-08-11

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  15. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  16. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-08-11

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  17. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  18. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  19. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  20. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-02-20

    The ARM CMBE-CLDRAD [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected cloud and radiation relevant quantities from ACRF observations

  1. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  2. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC3)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  3. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  4. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC2)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  5. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  6. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  7. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1 V4)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  8. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Nauru (ARMBE-ATM TWPC2)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  9. Appendix A: GPRA08 benefits estimates: NEMS and MARKAL Model Baseline Cases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  10. An improved blade passage model for estimating off-design axial compressor performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brand, Maximilian Lewis

    2013-01-01

    Accurate estimates of multistage axial compressor performance at off-design operating conditions are essential to the determination of key performance metrics of aircraft gas turbine engines, such as fuel burn, thrust ...

  11. Estimation of Building Parameters Using Simplified Energy Balance Model and Metered Whole Building Energy Use 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Masuda, H.; Claridge, D.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents and evaluates an indirect data-driven method to estimate influential building parameters: air exchange rates and overall heat transfer coefficients of building envelopes from the separately metered energy use for electricity...

  12. Parameter estimation from flowing fluid temperature logging data in unsaturated fractured rock using multiphase inverse modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mukhopadhyay, S.

    2009-01-01

    the Drift Scale Test at Yucca Mountain Figure 1a. Figure 1b.Drift Scale Test at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, J. of Contam.gas into a tunnel at Yucca Mountain – Estimating large-scale

  13. Efficient Hydraulic State Estimation Technique Using Reduced Models of Urban Water Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Preis, Ami

    This paper describes and demonstrates an efficient method for online hydraulic state estimation in urban water networks. The proposed method employs an online predictor-corrector (PC) procedure for forecasting future water ...

  14. Nonlinear Estimation for Model Based Fault Diagnosis of Nonlinear Chemical Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Qu, Chunyan

    2011-02-22

    Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF), particle filtering (PF) and moving horizon estimation (MHE) etc. However, many issues related to the available techniques are to be solved. This dissertation discusses three important techniques...

  15. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  16. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC2)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-26

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  17. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-10-05

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  18. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-26

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  19. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1 V4)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-26

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  20. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC3)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-26

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  1. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Nauru (ARMBE-ATM TWPC2)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-10-05

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  2. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-26

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  3. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  4. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC3)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-10-05

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  5. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-10-05

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  6. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC3)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-27

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  7. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-12-13

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  8. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-CLDRAD [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected cloud and radiation relevant quantities from ACRF observations

  9. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  10. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  11. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  12. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  13. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  14. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  15. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  16. Melanoma costs: A dynamic model comparing estimated overall costs of various clinical stages

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alexandrescu, Doru Traian

    2009-01-01

    AL. Trends in treatment costs for localized prostate cancer:R, Elkin EP, et al. Cumulative cost pattern comparison ofAn estimate of the annual direct cost of treating cutaneous

  17. A BIOMASS-BASED MODEL TO ESTIMATE THE PLAUSIBILITY OF EXOPLANET BIOSIGNATURE GASES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seager, Sara

    Biosignature gas detection is one of the ultimate future goals for exoplanet atmosphere studies. We have created a framework for linking biosignature gas detectability to biomass estimates, including atmospheric photochemistry ...

  18. Load Modeling and State Estimation Methods for Power Distribution Systems: Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tom McDermott

    2010-05-07

    The project objective was to provide robust state estimation for distribution systems, comparable to what has been available on transmission systems for decades. This project used an algorithm called Branch Current State Estimation (BCSE), which is more effective than classical methods because it decouples the three phases of a distribution system, and uses branch current instead of node voltage as a state variable, which is a better match to current measurement.

  19. SU-E-J-01: 3D Fluoroscopic Image Estimation From Patient-Specific 4DCBCT-Based Motion Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dhou, S; Hurwitz, M; Lewis, J; Mishra, P

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: 3D motion modeling derived from 4DCT images, taken days or weeks before treatment, cannot reliably represent patient anatomy on the day of treatment. We develop a method to generate motion models based on 4DCBCT acquired at the time of treatment, and apply the model to estimate 3D time-varying images (referred to as 3D fluoroscopic images). Methods: Motion models are derived through deformable registration between each 4DCBCT phase, and principal component analysis (PCA) on the resulting displacement vector fields. 3D fluoroscopic images are estimated based on cone-beam projections simulating kV treatment imaging. PCA coefficients are optimized iteratively through comparison of these cone-beam projections and projections estimated based on the motion model. Digital phantoms reproducing ten patient motion trajectories, and a physical phantom with regular and irregular motion derived from measured patient trajectories, are used to evaluate the method in terms of tumor localization, and the global voxel intensity difference compared to ground truth. Results: Experiments included: 1) assuming no anatomic or positioning changes between 4DCT and treatment time; and 2) simulating positioning and tumor baseline shifts at the time of treatment compared to 4DCT acquisition. 4DCBCT were reconstructed from the anatomy as seen at treatment time. In case 1) the tumor localization error and the intensity differences in ten patient were smaller using 4DCT-based motion model, possible due to superior image quality. In case 2) the tumor localization error and intensity differences were 2.85 and 0.15 respectively, using 4DCT-based motion models, and 1.17 and 0.10 using 4DCBCT-based models. 4DCBCT performed better due to its ability to reproduce daily anatomical changes. Conclusion: The study showed an advantage of 4DCBCT-based motion models in the context of 3D fluoroscopic images estimation. Positioning and tumor baseline shift uncertainties were mitigated by the 4DCBCT-based motion models, while they caused errors when using 4DCT-based motion models. Partially funded by Varian research grant.

  20. A review of "The Public Mirror: Molière and the Social Commerce of Depiction." by Larry F. Norman 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kiki Gounaridou

    2002-01-01

    enough been addressed directly, despite the number of books and articles in recent years that have taken for granted the impor- tance of coteries and other literary communities in Early Modern England. Larry F. Norman. The Public Mirror: Moli...?re and the Social Com- merce of Depiction. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 1999. vii + 226 pp. $40. Review by KIKI GOUNARIDOU, SMITH COLLEGE. In The Public Mirror, Larry Norman?s intention is to un- cover the aesthetic and social conditions...

  1. A Monte Carlo Investigation of Three Different Estimation Methods in Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling Under Conditions of Data Nonnormality and Varied Sample Sizes 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Byrd, Jimmy

    2010-01-14

    The purpose of the study was to examine multilevel regression models in the context of multilevel structural equation modeling (SEM) in terms of accuracy of parameter estimates, standard errors, and fit indices in normal ...

  2. Parameter Estimation of Dynamic Air-conditioning Component Models Using Limited Sensor Data 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hariharan, Natarajkumar

    2011-08-08

    This thesis presents an approach for identifying critical model parameters in dynamic air-conditioning systems using limited sensor information. The expansion valve model and the compressor model parameters play a crucial ...

  3. A Probabilistic Deformation Demand Model and Fragility Estimates for Asymmetric Offshore Jacket Platforms 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fallon, Michael Brooks

    2012-11-12

    to assess the deformation demand on asymmetric offshore jacket platforms subject to wave and current loadings. The probabilistic model is constructed by adding correction terms and a model error to an existing deterministic deformation demand model...

  4. Models for estimating saturation flow and maximum demand at closely spaced intersections 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nanduri, Sreelata

    1995-01-01

    This thesis describes models for saturation flow and maximum demand at closely spaced intersections. The effects of queue interaction between these two intersections are taken into account in both models. The saturation flow model is based...

  5. Efficient Models for the Evaluation and Estimation of the Gravity Field

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Born, George

    models. Problem Cubed-Sphere Gravity Model Designed for Fast Evaluation Orbit Propagation/FORMOSAT-3 4 #12;The spherical harmonic gravity model dominates force model execution time 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Two-Body + Overhead Precession Nutation Gravity (36x36) Lunar-Solar Drag SRP Jacobian (36x36

  6. OptIC project: An intercomparison of optimization techniques for parameter estimation in terrestrial biogeochemical models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richardson, Andrew D.

    and earth system models, especially for long-term (multian- nual and greater) simulations. Data assimilation

  7. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  8. WAXS fat subtraction model to estimate differential linear scattering coefficients of fatless breast tissue: Phantom materials evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tang, Robert Y.; Laamanen, Curtis McDonald, Nancy; LeClair, Robert J.

    2014-05-15

    Purpose: Develop a method to subtract fat tissue contributions to wide-angle x-ray scatter (WAXS) signals of breast biopsies in order to estimate the differential linear scattering coefficients ?{sub s} of fatless tissue. Cancerous and fibroglandular tissue can then be compared independent of fat content. In this work phantom materials with known compositions were used to test the efficacy of the WAXS subtraction model. Methods: Each sample 5 mm in diameter and 5 mm thick was interrogated by a 50 kV 2.7 mm diameter beam for 3 min. A 25 mm{sup 2} by 1 mm thick CdTe detector allowed measurements of a portion of the ? = 6° scattered field. A scatter technique provided means to estimate the incident spectrum N{sub 0}(E) needed in the calculations of ?{sub s}[x(E, ?)] where x is the momentum transfer argument. Values of ?{sup ¯}{sub s} for composite phantoms consisting of three plastic layers were estimated and compared to the values obtained via the sum ?{sup ¯}{sub s}{sup ?}(x)=?{sub 1}?{sub s1}(x)+?{sub 2}?{sub s2}(x)+?{sub 3}?{sub s3}(x), where ?{sub i} is the fractional volume of the ith plastic component. Water, polystyrene, and a volume mixture of 0.6 water + 0.4 polystyrene labelled as fibphan were chosen to mimic cancer, fat, and fibroglandular tissue, respectively. A WAXS subtraction model was used to remove the polystyrene signal from tissue composite phantoms so that the ?{sub s} of water and fibphan could be estimated. Although the composite samples were layered, simulations were performed to test the models under nonlayered conditions. Results: The well known ?{sub s} signal of water was reproduced effectively between 0.5 < x < 1.6 nm{sup ?1}. The ?{sup ¯}{sub s} obtained for the heterogeneous samples agreed with ?{sup ¯}{sub s}{sup ?}. Polystyrene signals were subtracted successfully from composite phantoms. The simulations validated the usefulness of the WAXS models for nonlayered biopsies. Conclusions: The methodology to measure ?{sub s} of homogeneous samples was quantitatively accurate. Simple WAXS models predicted the probabilities for specific x-ray scattering to occur from heterogeneous biopsies. The fat subtraction model can allow ?{sub s} signals of breast cancer and fibroglandular tissue to be compared without the effects of fat provided there is an independent measurement of the fat volume fraction ?{sub f}. Future work will consist of devising a quantitative x-ray digital imaging method to estimate ?{sub f} in ex vivo breast samples.

  9. Standardized Mean Differences for Complex Multilevel Models: Parametric and Nonparametric Estimation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lai, Hok Chio

    2015-06-02

    that the degree of imbalance was quite strong. R 3.0.1 (R Core Team, 2013) was used to generate 500 data sets for each conditions, with µC••• = 0 and ?2W = 1.0. All random effects were normally distributed. The estimation of D1 and V (D1) was performed in R with ?...

  10. Model-based PSF and MTF estimation and validation from skeletal clinical CT images

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pakdel, Amirreza; Mainprize, James G.; Robert, Normand; Fialkov, Jeffery; Whyne, Cari M.

    2014-01-15

    Purpose: A method was developed to correct for systematic errors in estimating the thickness of thin bones due to image blurring in CT images using bone interfaces to estimate the point-spread-function (PSF). This study validates the accuracy of the PSFs estimated using said method from various clinical CT images featuring cortical bones. Methods: Gaussian PSFs, characterized by a different extent in the z (scan) direction than in the x and y directions were obtained using our method from 11 clinical CT scans of a cadaveric craniofacial skeleton. These PSFs were estimated for multiple combinations of scanning parameters and reconstruction methods. The actual PSF for each scan setting was measured using the slanted-slit technique within the image slice plane and the longitudinal axis. The Gaussian PSF and the corresponding modulation transfer function (MTF) are compared against the actual PSF and MTF for validation. Results: The differences (errors) between the actual and estimated full-width half-max (FWHM) of the PSFs were 0.09 ± 0.05 and 0.14 ± 0.11 mm for the xy and z axes, respectively. The overall errors in the predicted frequencies measured at 75%, 50%, 25%, 10%, and 5% MTF levels were 0.06 ± 0.07 and 0.06 ± 0.04 cycles/mm for the xy and z axes, respectively. The accuracy of the estimates was dependent on whether they were reconstructed with a standard kernel (Toshiba's FC68, mean error of 0.06 ± 0.05 mm, MTF mean error 0.02 ± 0.02 cycles/mm) or a high resolution bone kernel (Toshiba's FC81, PSF FWHM error 0.12 ± 0.03 mm, MTF mean error 0.09 ± 0.08 cycles/mm). Conclusions: The method is accurate in 3D for an image reconstructed using a standard reconstruction kernel, which conforms to the Gaussian PSF assumption but less accurate when using a high resolution bone kernel. The method is a practical and self-contained means of estimating the PSF in clinical CT images featuring cortical bones, without the need phantoms or any prior knowledge about the scanner-specific parameters.

  11. Further evaluations of the CALMET/CALPUFF modeling system for the estimation of the fate of atmospheric nitrogen

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garrison, M.; Gill, S.; Sherwell, J.

    1999-07-01

    The CALMET/CALPUFF modeling system has been used to estimate nitrogen deposition in an area surrounding Baltimore and the northern portion of the Chesapeake Bay. Comprehensive NO{sub x} emissions inventories and meteorological data bases have been developed to conduct the modeling. A previous study reported on an evaluation of predicted non-ammonia, inorganic nitrogen wet deposition rates compared to measured rates at two NADP/NTN sites in Maryland. This paper presents the results of an expanded evaluation of the performance of the modeling system. Data collected at a total of 38 monitoring stations located in or near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, including NADP/NTN, CASTNET, and AIRS sites, have been used to conduct evaluations of the model's ability to predict concentrations of nitric acid, particulate nitrate, and NO{sub x} in addition to wet nitrate deposition. This expanded evaluation has allowed for the testing of additional model technical options in an attempt to improve the performance when compared to measured data. Results of this evaluation are expected to allow for better estimates of the impacts of nitrogen species formed from utility and other anthropogenic sources of NO{sub x} on the environment in Maryland.

  12. Improving parameter estimation and water table depth simulation in a land surface model using GRACE water storage and estimated base flow data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lo, Min-Hui; Famiglietti, James S; Yeh, P. J.-F.; Syed, T. H

    2010-01-01

    variations of river water storage from a multiple satellite2007), Estimating ground water storage changes in theAnalysis of terrestrial water storage changes from GRACE and

  13. Developing a Cost Model and Methodology to Estimate Capital Costs for Thermal Energy Storage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Glatzmaier, G.

    2011-12-01

    This report provides an update on the previous cost model for thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The update allows NREL to estimate the costs of such systems that are compatible with the higher operating temperatures associated with advanced power cycles. The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Program is to develop solar technologies that can make a significant contribution to the United States domestic energy supply. The recent DOE SunShot Initiative sets a very aggressive cost goal to reach a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh by 2020 with no incentives or credits for all solar-to-electricity technologies.1 As this goal is reached, the share of utility power generation that is provided by renewable energy sources is expected to increase dramatically. Because Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is currently the only renewable technology that is capable of integrating cost-effective energy storage, it is positioned to play a key role in providing renewable, dispatchable power to utilities as the share of power generation from renewable sources increases. Because of this role, future CSP plants will likely have as much as 15 hours of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) included in their design and operation. As such, the cost and performance of the TES system is critical to meeting the SunShot goal for solar technologies. The cost of electricity from a CSP plant depends strongly on its overall efficiency, which is a product of two components - the collection and conversion efficiencies. The collection efficiency determines the portion of incident solar energy that is captured as high-temperature thermal energy. The conversion efficiency determines the portion of thermal energy that is converted to electricity. The operating temperature at which the overall efficiency reaches its maximum depends on many factors, including material properties of the CSP plant components. Increasing the operating temperature of the power generation system leads to higher thermal-to-electric conversion efficiency. However, in a CSP system, higher operating temperature also leads to greater thermal losses. These two effects combine to give an optimal system-level operating temperature that may be less than the upper operating temperature limit of system components. The overall efficiency may be improved by developing materials, power cycles, and system-integration strategies that enable operation at elevated temperature while limiting thermal losses. This is particularly true for the TES system and its components. Meeting the SunShot cost target will require cost and performance improvements in all systems and components within a CSP plant. Solar collector field hardware will need to decrease significantly in cost with no loss in performance and possibly with performance improvements. As higher temperatures are considered for the power block, new working fluids, heat-transfer fluids (HTFs), and storage fluids will all need to be identified to meet these new operating conditions. Figure 1 shows thermodynamic conversion efficiency as a function of temperature for the ideal Carnot cycle and 75% Carnot, which is considered to be the practical efficiency attainable by current power cycles. Current conversion efficiencies for the parabolic trough steam cycle, power tower steam cycle, parabolic dish/Stirling, Ericsson, and air-Brayton/steam Rankine combined cycles are shown at their corresponding operating temperatures. Efficiencies for supercritical steam and carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) are also shown for their operating temperature ranges.

  14. Essays on Regression Spline Structural Nonparametric Stochastic Production Frontier Estimation and Inefficiency Analysis Models 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Ke

    2012-02-14

    functions or any function of independent variables within the suggested frameworks. Also shown was that adopting suggested models could greatly increase predictive accuracy through simulations. In the second essay we generalized the suggested models...

  15. Global oceanic rainfall estimation from AMSR-E data based on a radiative transfer model 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jin, Kyoung-Wook

    2006-04-12

    An improved physically-based rainfall algorithm was developed using AMSR-E data based on a radiative transfer model. In addition, error models were designed and embedded in the algorithm to assess retrieval errors ...

  16. Fracture Density Estimation Using Spectral Analysis of Reservoir Reflections: A Numerical Modeling Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pearce, Fred

    2003-01-01

    We use a 3-D finite difference numerical model to generate synthetic seismograms from a simple fractured reservoir

  17. Estimates of Radioxenon Released from Southern Hemisphere Medical isotope Production Facilities Using Measured Air Concentrations and Atmospheric Transport Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eslinger, Paul W.; Friese, Judah I.; Lowrey, Justin D.; McIntyre, Justin I.; Miley, Harry S.; Schrom, Brian T.

    2014-09-01

    Abstract The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive-Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty monitors the atmosphere for radioactive xenon leaking from underground nuclear explosions. Emissions from medical isotope production represent a challenging background signal when determining whether measured radioxenon in the atmosphere is associated with a nuclear explosion prohibited by the treaty. The Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO) operates a reactor and medical isotope production facility in Lucas Heights, Australia. This study uses two years of release data from the ANSTO medical isotope production facility and Xe-133 data from three IMS sampling locations to estimate the annual releases of Xe-133 from medical isotope production facilities in Argentina, South Africa, and Indonesia. Atmospheric dilution factors derived from a global atmospheric transport model were used in an optimization scheme to estimate annual release values by facility. The annual releases of about 6.8×1014 Bq from the ANSTO medical isotope production facility are in good agreement with the sampled concentrations at these three IMS sampling locations. Annual release estimates for the facility in South Africa vary from 1.2×1016 to 2.5×1016 Bq and estimates for the facility in Indonesia vary from 6.1×1013 to 3.6×1014 Bq. Although some releases from the facility in Argentina may reach these IMS sampling locations, the solution to the objective function is insensitive to the magnitude of those releases.

  18. Development of a mass balance model for estimating PCB export from the lower Fox River to Green Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Velleux, M.; Endicott, D.

    1994-01-01

    A mass balance approach was used to model contaminant cycling in the lower Fox River from the DePere Dam to Green Bay. The objectives of this research were (1) to estimate present contaminant export from the Fox River to Green Bay, and (2) to quantify contaminant transport and fate pathways in the lower river for the study period. Specifically, a model describing the transport, fate, and export of chlorides, total suspended solids, total PCBs, and six PCB congeners for the lower Fox River was developed. Field data collected as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Green Bay Mass Balance Study were used to calibrate the model. Model results suggest that the transport of inplace pollutants significantly contributed to the cumulative export of total PCBs over this period. Estimated total PCB transport in the Fox River during 1989 increased 60% between the dam and river mouth due to the resuspension of lower river sediments. Total suspended solids and PCB predictions are most sensitive to particle transport parameters, particularly the settling and resuspension velocities. The significant components of the total PCB mass balance are import (loading over the DePere Dam), settling, resuspension, and export to Green Bay. Volatilization, porewater transport, and point source input were not significant to the mass balance. Present point source discharges to the river are not significant total PCB sources, collectively contributing less than 6 kg of PCB to the river during the mass balance period.

  19. A Simple Model for Estimating Water Balance and Salinity of Reservoirs and Outflow 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miyamoto, S; Yuan, F; Anand, Shilpa

    2010-08-23

    storage and inflow information in advance of the actual release. A simple two-layer model is used to describe the reservoir processes. The second part addresses water and salt transport through semi-arid river channels. A routing model referred... part concerns with water and salt storage in the riparian zones. The models are coded in FORTRAN and are available upon request. The models were applied to the middle reach of the Pecos River (Malaga, New Mexico, to Girvin, Texas) and, to a limited...

  20. Battery State Estimation for a Single Particle Model with Electrolyte Dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Moura, Scott J; Bribiesca Argomedo, Federico; Klein, Reinhardt; Mirtabatabaei, Anahita; Krstic, Miroslav

    2015-01-01

    and G. Fiengo, “Lithium-Ion Battery State of Charge andestimation of the lithium-ion battery using an adaptiveelectrochemical model for lithium ion battery on electric

  1. Learning shape models for monocular human pose estimation from the Microsoft Xbox Kinect

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Everingham, Mark

    on the popular pictorial structure model (PSM) [8]. Fig. 1 outlines our proposal: using the PSM we infer 2D human

  2. Method Comparison For Estimation Of Distributed Parameters In Permittivity Models Using Reflectance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ;1 Introduction There is a current interest in the integration of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) for both static matrix composites. In order to model the reflectance, one must specify a model for the complex have hypothesized that as the CMC under study (a ceramic matrix with a silicon carbide fiber

  3. Distributed Estimation Distributed Estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gupta, Vijay

    with a Star Topology 2 2.1 Static Sensor Fusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2.1.1 Combining Estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2.1.2 Static Sensor Fusion for Star Topology;Distributed Estimation 3 Non-Ideal Networks with Star Topology 10 3.1 Sensor Fusion in Presence of Message

  4. Testing of a model to estimate vapor concentration of various organic chemicals. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bakalyar, S.M.

    1990-01-01

    A model developed by Dr. Parker C. Reist to predict the build-up and decay rates of vapor concentrations following a chemical spill and clean-up was tested. The chemicals tested were: acetone, butyl acetate, ethyl acetate, hexane, methylene chloride, methyl ethyl ketone, and toluene. The evaporation rates of these chemicals were determined both by prediction, using a model developed by I. Kawamura and D. Mackay, and empirically and these rates were used in the Reist model. Chamber experiments were done to measure actual building-up and decay of vapor concentrations for simulated spills and simulated clean-up.

  5. Reconciling estimates of the contemporary North American carbon balance among terrestrial biosphere models, atmospheric inversions and a new approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange from inventory-based data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hayes, Daniel J [ORNL; Turner, David P [Oregon State University, Corvallis; Stinson, Graham [Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service; Mcguire, David [University of Alaska; Wei, Yaxing [ORNL; West, Tristram O. [Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL; Heath, Linda S. [USDA Forest Service; De Jong, Bernardus [ECOSUR; McConkey, Brian G. [Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada; Birdsey, Richard A. [U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service; Kurz, Werner [Canadian Forest Service; Jacobson, Andrew [NOAA ESRL and CIRES; Huntzinger, Deborah [University of Michigan; Pan, Yude [U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service; Post, Wilfred M [ORNL; Cook, Robert B [ORNL

    2012-01-01

    We develop an approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using inventory-based information over North America (NA) for a recent 7-year period (ca. 2000 2006). The approach notably retains information on the spatial distribution of NEE, or the vertical exchange between land and atmosphere of all non-fossil fuel sources and sinks of CO2, while accounting for lateral transfers of forest and crop products as well as their eventual emissions. The total NEE estimate of a 327 252 TgC yr1 sink for NA was driven primarily by CO2 uptake in the Forest Lands sector (248 TgC yr1), largely in the Northwest and Southeast regions of the US, and in the Crop Lands sector (297 TgC yr1), predominantly in the Midwest US states. These sinks are counteracted by the carbon source estimated for the Other Lands sector (+218 TgC yr1), where much of the forest and crop products are assumed to be returned to the atmosphere (through livestock and human consumption). The ecosystems of Mexico are estimated tobe a small net source (+18 TgC yr1) due to land use change between 1993 and 2002. We compare these inventorybased estimates with results from a suite of terrestrial biosphere and atmospheric inversion models, where the mean continental-scale NEE estimate for each ensemble is 511 TgC yr1 and 931 TgC yr1, respectively. In the modeling approaches, all sectors, including Other Lands, were generally estimated to be a carbon sink, driven in part by assumed CO2 fertilization and/or lack of consideration of carbon sources from disturbances and product emissions. Additional fluxes not measured by the inventories, although highly uncertain, could add an additional 239 TgC yr1 to the inventory-based NA sink estimate, thus suggesting some convergence with the modeling approaches.

  6. Stochastic model for indirect estimation of instantaneous and cumulative loads in wind turbines: a systematic approach for off-shore wind farms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peinke, Joachim

    Stochastic model for indirect estimation of instantaneous and cumulative loads in wind turbines present our recent findings for estimating instantaneous and cumulative loads in singles wind turbines at single wind turbines, driven by wind speed measurements. Through a standard fatigue analysis of data

  7. Seismic scattering attributes to estimate reservoir fracture density : a numerical modeling study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pearce, Frederick D. (Frederick Douglas), 1978-

    2003-01-01

    We use a 3-D finite difference numerical model to generate synthetic seismograms from a simple fractured reservoir containing evenly-spaced, discrete, vertical fracture zones. The fracture zones are represented using a ...

  8. Parameter Estimation and Capacity Fade Analysis of Lithium-Ion Batteries Using Reformulated Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Braatz, Richard D.

    Many researchers have worked to develop methods to analyze and characterize capacity fade in lithium-ion batteries. As a complement to approaches to mathematically model capacity fade that require detailed understanding ...

  9. Probabilistic Seismic Demand Model and Fragility Estimates for Symmetric Rigid Blocks Subject to Rocking Motions 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bakhtiary, Esmaeel

    2013-01-15

    This thesis presents a probability model to predict the maximum rotation of rocking bodies exposed to seismic excitations given specific earthquake intensity measures. After obtaining the nonlinear equations of motion and clarification...

  10. On-line Hydraulic State Estimation in Urban Water Networks Using Reduced Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Preis, Ami

    A Predictor-Corrector (PC) approach for on-line forecasting of water usage in an urban water system is presented and demonstrated. The M5 Model-Trees algorithm is used to predict water demands and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) ...

  11. Efficient Bayesian estimates for discrimination among topologically different systems biology models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hagen, David Robert

    A major effort in systems biology is the development of mathematical models that describe complex biological systems at multiple scales and levels of abstraction. Determining the topology—the set of interactions—of a ...

  12. Seismic Scattering Attributes to Estimate Reservoir Fracture Density: A Numerical Modeling Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pearce, Frederick Douglas

    We use a 3-D finite difference numerical model to generate synthetic seismograms from a simple fractured reservoir containing evenly-spaced, discrete, vertical fracture zones. The fracture zones are represented using a ...

  13. A comparative study of analytical models to estimate the LNAPL mound formation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ahmed, Ashfaq

    1994-01-01

    developed. Even though these models are based on various as- sumptions, they are useful as tools in evaluating the spreading of the free oil phase during sn oil spill. The spreading depends on many factors, such as leak volume, type of petroleum product..., hydrogeological conditions, and hydraulic properties of the medium as well as the oil. Among the various modeling approaches to predict spill migration, the sharp interface approach has been widely examined due to its simplicity for homogeneous media...

  14. TransCom N[subscript 2]O model inter-comparison – Part 2: Atmospheric inversion estimates of N[subscript 2]O emissions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thompson, R. L.

    This study examines N[subscript 2]O emission estimates from five different atmospheric inversion frameworks based on chemistry transport models (CTMs). The five frameworks differ in the choice of CTM, meteorological data, ...

  15. Estimating Methods

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    Based on the project's scope, the purpose of the estimate, and the availability of estimating resources, the estimator can choose one or a combination of techniques when estimating an activity or project. Estimating methods, estimating indirect and direct costs, and other estimating considerations are discussed in this chapter.

  16. Computational Methods for Estimation in the Modeling of Nonlinear Elastomers \\Lambda

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    vibration suppression devices. Materials such as elastomers, rubber­like composites typically filled and springs. One could imagine using active fillers, such as piezoelectric, magnetic, or conductive particles [12, 16, 19, 20]). Some of these models are based on the statistical molecular theory of polymers

  17. INVENTORY OF SOLAR RADIATION/SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ESTIMATORS, MODELS, SITE-SPECIFIC DATA, AND PUBLICATIONS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    costs. · HOMER https://analysis.nrel.gov/homer/ Simplifies the task of evaluating design options for off-grid and grid-connected power systems. #12;· Hybrid Power System Simulation Model http types of electrical loads, multiple wind turbines of different types, photovoltaics, multiple diesel

  18. Estimation of Parameters for Single Diode Models Using Measured IV Clifford W. Hansen

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . In contrast, module testing frequently records IV curves at a wide range of irradiance and temperature is a popular way to represent the electrical performance of a photovoltaic (PV) module. A single diode model]) and is often interpreted by an equivalent circuit comprising a current source, a diode, a parallel resistor

  19. Improving parameter estimation and water table depth simulation in a land surface model using GRACE water storage and estimated base flow data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lo, Min-Hui; Famiglietti, James S; Yeh, P. J.-F.; Syed, T. H

    2010-01-01

    spatially variable water and energy balance processes, Waterdistributed land surface water and energy balance model, J.

  20. Measuring and Modeling Fault Density for Plume-Fault Encounter Probability Estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, P.D.; Oldenburg, C.M.; Nicot, J.-P.

    2011-05-15

    Emission of carbon dioxide from fossil-fueled power generation stations contributes to global climate change. Storage of this carbon dioxide within the pores of geologic strata (geologic carbon storage) is one approach to mitigating the climate change that would otherwise occur. The large storage volume needed for this mitigation requires injection into brine-filled pore space in reservoir strata overlain by cap rocks. One of the main concerns of storage in such rocks is leakage via faults. In the early stages of site selection, site-specific fault coverages are often not available. This necessitates a method for using available fault data to develop an estimate of the likelihood of injected carbon dioxide encountering and migrating up a fault, primarily due to buoyancy. Fault population statistics provide one of the main inputs to calculate the encounter probability. Previous fault population statistics work is shown to be applicable to areal fault density statistics. This result is applied to a case study in the southern portion of the San Joaquin Basin with the result that the probability of a carbon dioxide plume from a previously planned injection had a 3% chance of encountering a fully seal offsetting fault.

  1. Quantitative Modeling and Estimation in Systems Biology using Fluorescent Reporter Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bansal, Loveleena

    2013-12-10

    FIM Fischer Information Matrix FP Fluorescent Protein GFP Green Fluorescent Protein GLS Generalized Least Squares IBVP Intital Boundary Value Problem IL-6 Interleukin-6 IPDE Integro Partial Differential Equation LHS Latin Hypercube... Sampling MSE Mean Squared Error nM Nano Molar O.D. Optical Density ODE Ordinary Differential Equation PBE Population Balance Equation PBM Population Balance Model RE Relative Error S.D. Standard Deviation STAT3 Signal transducer...

  2. Evaluation of Blade-Strike Models for Estimating the Biological Performance of Large Kaplan Hydro Turbines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deng, Zhiqun; Carlson, Thomas J.; Ploskey, Gene R.; Richmond, Marshall C.

    2005-11-30

    BioIndex testing of hydro-turbines is sought as an analog to the hydraulic index testing conducted on hydro-turbines to optimize their power production efficiency. In BioIndex testing the goal is to identify those operations within the range identified by Index testing where the survival of fish passing through the turbine is maximized. BioIndex testing includes the immediate tailrace region as well as the turbine environment between a turbine's intake trashracks and the exit of its draft tube. The US Army Corps of Engineers and the Department of Energy have been evaluating a variety of means, such as numerical and physical turbine models, to investigate the quality of flow through a hydro-turbine and other aspects of the turbine environment that determine its safety for fish. The goal is to use these tools to develop hypotheses identifying turbine operations and predictions of their biological performance that can be tested at prototype scales. Acceptance of hypotheses would be the means for validation of new operating rules for the turbine tested that would be in place when fish were passing through the turbines. The overall goal of this project is to evaluate the performance of numerical blade strike models as a tool to aid development of testable hypotheses for bioIndexing. Evaluation of the performance of numerical blade strike models is accomplished by comparing predictions of fish mortality resulting from strike by turbine runner blades with observations made using live test fish at mainstem Columbia River Dams and with other predictions of blade strike made using observations of beads passing through a 1:25 scale physical turbine model.

  3. Ground motion modeling of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake II: Ground motion estimates for the 1906 earthquake and scenario events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aagaard, B; Brocher, T; Dreger, D; Frankel, A; Graves, R; Harmsen, S; Hartzell, S; Larsen, S; McCandless, K; Nilsson, S; Petersson, N A; Rodgers, A; Sjogreen, B; Tkalcic, H; Zoback, M L

    2007-02-09

    We estimate the ground motions produced by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake making use of the recently developed Song et al. (2008) source model that combines the available geodetic and seismic observations and recently constructed 3D geologic and seismic velocity models. Our estimates of the ground motions for the 1906 earthquake are consistent across five ground-motion modeling groups employing different wave propagation codes and simulation domains. The simulations successfully reproduce the main features of the Boatwright and Bundock (2005) ShakeMap, but tend to over predict the intensity of shaking by 0.1-0.5 modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) units. Velocity waveforms at sites throughout the San Francisco Bay Area exhibit characteristics consistent with rupture directivity, local geologic conditions (e.g., sedimentary basins), and the large size of the event (e.g., durations of strong shaking lasting tens of seconds). We also compute ground motions for seven hypothetical scenarios rupturing the same extent of the northern San Andreas fault, considering three additional hypocenters and an additional, random distribution of slip. Rupture directivity exerts the strongest influence on the variations in shaking, although sedimentary basins do consistently contribute to the response in some locations, such as Santa Rosa, Livermore, and San Jose. These scenarios suggest that future large earthquakes on the northern San Andreas fault may subject the current San Francisco Bay urban area to stronger shaking than a repeat of the 1906 earthquake. Ruptures propagating southward towards San Francisco appear to expose more of the urban area to a given intensity level than do ruptures propagating northward.

  4. Efficient Semiparametric Estimators for Nonlinear Regressions and Models under Sample Selection Bias 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Mi Jeong

    2012-10-19

    .0080 10.0107 0.0075 0.0076 2 = 0:6 -0.5999 1.42e 4 -0.5999 7.96e 5 8.09e 5 -0.6001 8.73e 5 7.85e 5 1 = 1 1.0379 0.0578 0.0555 1.0395 0.0632 0.0618 2 = 0:1 0.0959 6.36e 4 5.77e 4 0.0963 7.39e 4 5.15e 4 Growth model 1 = 10 10.0040 0.0258 10.0062 0...

  5. Estimating market power in homogeneous product markets using a composed error model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Orea, Luis; Steinbuks, Jevgenijs

    2012-04-25

    for assisting us with computation of residual demand elasticities based on PX bidding data. We also thank David Newbery, Jacob LaRiviere, Mar Reguant, the anonymous reviewer, and the participants of the 3rd International Workshop on Empirical Methods in Energy... that variation in the error term is an exponential function of an intercept term, the day-ahead forecast of total demand and its square (i.e., FQ, FQ2), that are included in the model in order to capture possible demand-size effects, and a vector of days...

  6. Adjusting lidar-derived digital terrain models in coastal marshes based on estimated aboveground biomass density

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Medeiros, Stephen; Hagen, Scott; Weishampel, John; Angelo, James

    2015-03-25

    Digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from airborne lidar are traditionally unreliable in coastal salt marshes due to the inability of the laser to penetrate the dense grasses and reach the underlying soil. To that end, we present a novel processing methodology that uses ASTER Band 2 (visible red), an interferometric SAR (IfSAR) digital surface model, and lidar-derived canopy height to classify biomass density using both a three-class scheme (high, medium and low) and a two-class scheme (high and low). Elevation adjustments associated with these classes using both median and quartile approaches were applied to adjust lidar-derived elevation values closer tomore »true bare earth elevation. The performance of the method was tested on 229 elevation points in the lower Apalachicola River Marsh. The two-class quartile-based adjusted DEM produced the best results, reducing the RMS error in elevation from 0.65 m to 0.40 m, a 38% improvement. The raw mean errors for the lidar DEM and the adjusted DEM were 0.61 ± 0.24 m and 0.32 ± 0.24 m, respectively, thereby reducing the high bias by approximately 49%.« less

  7. Estimating Policy-Driven Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trajectories in California: The California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greenblatt, Jeffery B.

    2013-10-10

    A California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) model was developed to explore the impact of combinations of state policies on state greenhouse gas (GHG) and regional criteria pollutant emissions. The model included representations of all GHG- emitting sectors of the California economy (including those outside the energy sector, such as high global warming potential gases, waste treatment, agriculture and forestry) in varying degrees of detail, and was carefully calibrated using available data and projections from multiple state agencies and other sources. Starting from basic drivers such as population, numbers of households, gross state product, numbers of vehicles, etc., the model calculated energy demands by type (various types of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon fuels, electricity and hydrogen), and finally calculated emissions of GHGs and three criteria pollutants: reactive organic gases (ROG), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and fine (2.5 ?m) particulate matter (PM2.5). Calculations were generally statewide, but in some sectors, criteria pollutants were also calculated for two regional air basins: the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Three scenarios were developed that attempt to model: (1) all committed policies, (2) additional, uncommitted policy targets and (3) potential technology and market futures. Each scenario received extensive input from state energy planning agencies, in particular the California Air Resources Board. Results indicate that all three scenarios are able to meet the 2020 statewide GHG targets, and by 2030, statewide GHG emissions range from between 208 and 396 MtCO2/yr. However, none of the scenarios are able to meet the 2050 GHG target of 85 MtCO2/yr, with emissions ranging from 188 to 444 MtCO2/yr, so additional policies will need to be developed for California to meet this stringent future target. A full sensitivity study of major scenario assumptions was also performed. In terms of criteria pollutants, targets were less well-defined, but while all three scenarios were able to make significant reductions in ROG, NOx and PM2.5 both statewide and in the two regional air basins, they may nonetheless fall short of what will be required by future federal standards. Specifically, in Scenario 1, regional NOx emissions are approximately three times the estimated targets for both 2023 and 2032, and in Scenarios 2 and 3, NOx emissions are approximately twice the estimated targets. Further work is required in this area, including detailed regional air quality modeling, in order to determine likely pathways for attaining these stringent targets.

  8. Enterprise Lead Input and Tracking Environment This tool solves the problem of tracking sales leads in a closed loop fashion, as depicted

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fisher, Kathleen

    ELITE Enterprise Lead Input and Tracking Environment This tool solves the problem of tracking sales leads in a closed loop fashion, as depicted in the figure below, in a simple and novel fashion, in a web handles a variety of tasks, such as lead evaluation, lead scoring, lead distribution, alerting, reporting

  9. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Rockhold, Mark L.; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2007-07-30

    This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model based on its apparent consistency with available knowledge and data. Posterior model probabilities are computed and parameter uncertainty is estimated by calibrating each model to observed system behavior; prior parameter estimates are optionally included. Scenario uncertainty is represented as a discrete set of alternative future conditions affecting boundary conditions, source/sink terms, or other aspects of the models, with associated prior scenario probabilities. A joint assessment of uncertainty results from combining model predictions computed under each scenario using as weight the posterior model and prior scenario probabilities. The uncertainty methodology was applied to modeling of groundwater flow and uranium transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Eight alternative models representing uncertainty in the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties as well as the temporal variability were considered. Two scenarios represent alternative future behavior of the Columbia River adjacent to the site were considered. The scenario alternatives were implemented in the models through the boundary conditions. Results demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to large-scale, detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling and illustrate the benefits of the methodology I providing better estimates of predictive uncertiay8, quantitative results for use in assessing risk, and an improved understanding of the system behavior and the limitations of the models.

  10. Primate polonium metabolic models and their use in estimation of systemic radiation doses from bioassay data. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, N. [New York Univ. Medical Center, Tuxedo, NY (United States). Dept. of Environmental Medicine

    1989-03-15

    A Polonium metabolic model was derived and incorporated into a Fortran algorithm which estimates the systemic radiation dose from {sup 210}Po when applied to occupational urine bioassay data. The significance of the doses estimated are examined by defining the degree of uncertainty attached to them through comprehensive statistical testing procedures. Many parameters necessary for dosimetry calculations (such as organ partition coefficients and excretion fractions), were evaluated from metabolic studies of {sup 210}Po in non-human primates. Two tamarins and six baboons were injected intravenously with {sup 210}Po citrate. Excreta and blood samples were collected. Five of the baboons were sacrificed at times ranging from 1 day to 3 months post exposure. Complete necropsies were performed and all excreta and the majority of all skeletal and tissue samples were analyzed radiochemically for their {sup 210}Po content. The {sup 210}Po excretion rate in the baboon was more rapid than in the tamarin. The biological half-time of {sup 210}Po excretion in the baboon was approximately 15 days while in the tamarin, the {sup 210}Po excretion rate was in close agreement with the 50 day biological half-time predicted by ICRP 30. Excretion fractions of {sup 210}Po in the non-human primates were found to be markedly different from data reported elsewhere in other species, including man. A thorough review of the Po urinalysis procedure showed that significant recovery losses resulted when metabolized {sup 210}Po was deposited out of raw urine. Polonium-210 was found throughout the soft tissues of the baboon but not with the partition coefficients for liver, kidneys, and spleen that are predicted by the ICRP 30 metabolic model. A fractional distribution of 0.29 for liver, 0.07 for kidneys, and 0.006 for spleen was determined. Retention times for {sup 210}Po in tissues are described by single exponential functions with biological half-times ranging from 15 to 50 days.

  11. Estimates of frequency-dependent compressibility from a quasistatic double-porosity model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Berryman, J. G.; Wang, H. F.

    1998-09-16

    Gassmann's relationship between the drained and undrained bulk modulus of a porous medium is often used to relate the dry bulk modulus to the saturated bulk modulus for elastic waves, because the compressibility of air is considered so high that the dry rock behaves in a drained fashion and the frequency of elastic waves is considered so high that the saturated rock behaves in an undrained fashion. The bulk modulus calculated from ultrasonic velocities, however, often does not match the Gassmann prediction. Mavko and Jizba examined how local flow effects and unequilibrated pore pressures can lead to greater stiffnesses. Their conceptual model consists of a distribution of porosities obtained from the strain-versus-confining-pressure behavior. Stiff pores that close at higher confining pressures are considered to remain undrained (unrelaxed) while soft pores drain even for high-frequency stress changes. If the pore shape distribution is bimodal, then the rock approximately satisfies the assumptions of a double-porosity, poroelastic material. Berryman and Wang [1995] established linear constitutive equations and identified four different time scales of ow behavior: (1) totally drained, (2) soft pores are drained but stiff pores are undrained, (3) soft and stiff pores are locally equilibrated, but undrained beyond the grain scale, and (4) both soft and stiff pores are undrained. The relative magnitudes of the four associated bulk moduli will be examined for all four moduli and illustrated for several sandstones.

  12. {\\sc CosmoNet}: fast cosmological parameter estimation in non-flat models using neural networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    T. Auld; M. Bridges; M. P. Hobson

    2007-03-16

    We present a further development of a method for accelerating the calculation of CMB power spectra, matter power spectra and likelihood functions for use in cosmological Bayesian inference. The algorithm, called {\\sc CosmoNet}, is based on training a multilayer perceptron neural network. We compute CMB power spectra (up to $\\ell=2000$) and matter transfer functions over a hypercube in parameter space encompassing the $4\\sigma$ confidence region of a selection of CMB (WMAP + high resolution experiments) and large scale structure surveys (2dF and SDSS). We work in the framework of a generic 7 parameter non-flat cosmology. Additionally we use {\\sc CosmoNet} to compute the WMAP 3-year, 2dF and SDSS likelihoods over the same region. We find that the average error in the power spectra is typically well below cosmic variance for spectra, and experimental likelihoods calculated to within a fraction of a log unit. We demonstrate that marginalised posteriors generated with {\\sc CosmoNet} spectra agree to within a few percent of those generated by {\\sc CAMB} parallelised over 4 CPUs, but are obtained 2-3 times faster on just a \\emph{single} processor. Furthermore posteriors generated directly via {\\sc CosmoNet} likelihoods can be obtained in less than 30 minutes on a single processor, corresponding to a speed up of a factor of $\\sim 32$. We also demonstrate the capabilities of {\\sc CosmoNet} by extending the CMB power spectra and matter transfer function training to a more generic 10 parameter cosmological model, including tensor modes, a varying equation of state of dark energy and massive neutrinos. {\\sc CosmoNet} and interfaces to both {\\sc CosmoMC} and {\\sc Bayesys} are publically available at {\\tt www.mrao.cam.ac.uk/software/cosmonet}.

  13. Source Term Estimation of Radioxenon Released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Reactors Using Measured Air Concentrations and Atmospheric Transport Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eslinger, Paul W. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Biegalski, S. [Univ. of Texas at Austin, TX (United States); Bowyer, Ted W. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Cooper, Matthew W. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Haas, Derek A. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hayes, James C. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hoffman, Ian [Radiation Protection Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Korpach, E. [Radiation Protection Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Yi, Jing [Radiation Protection Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Miley, Harry S. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rishel, Jeremy P. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ungar, R. Kurt [Radiation Protection Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada); White, Brian [Radiation Protection Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Woods, Vincent T. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Systems designed to monitor airborne radionuclides released from underground nuclear explosions detected radioactive fallout from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in March 2011. Atmospheric transport modeling (ATM) of plumes of noble gases and particulates were performed soon after the accident to determine plausible detection locations of any radioactive releases to the atmosphere. We combine sampling data from multiple International Modeling System (IMS) locations in a new way to estimate the magnitude and time sequence of the releases. Dilution factors from the modeled plume at five different detection locations were combined with 57 atmospheric concentration measurements of 133-Xe taken from March 18 to March 23 to estimate the source term. This approach estimates that 59% of the 1.24×1019 Bq of 133-Xe present in the reactors at the time of the earthquake was released to the atmosphere over a three day period. Source term estimates from combinations of detection sites have lower spread than estimates based on measurements at single detection sites. Sensitivity cases based on data from four or more detection locations bound the source term between 35% and 255% of available xenon inventory.

  14. Carbonaceous aerosols recorded in a southeastern Tibetan glacier: analysis of temporal variations and model estimates of sources and radiative forcing

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wang, Mo; Xu, B.; Cao, J.; Tie, X.; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Rudong; Qian, Yun; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhao, Shuyu; Wu, Guangjian; et al

    2015-02-02

    High temporal resolution measurements of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) covering the time period of 1956–2006 in an ice core over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau show a distinct seasonal dependence of BC and OC with higher respective concentrations but a lower OC / BC ratio in the non-monsoon season than during the summer monsoon. We use a global aerosol-climate model, in which BC emitted from different source regions can be explicitly tracked, to quantify BC source–receptor relationships between four Asian source regions and the southeastern Tibetan Plateau as a receptor. The model results show that South Asia hasmore »the largest contribution to the present-day (1996–2005) mean BC deposition at the ice-core drilling site during the non-monsoon season (October to May) (81%) and all year round (74%), followed by East Asia (14% to the non-monsoon mean and 21% to the annual mean). The ice-core record also indicates stable and relatively low BC and OC deposition fluxes from the late 1950s to 1980, followed by an overall increase to recent years. This trend is consistent with the BC and OC emission inventories and the fuel consumption of South Asia (as the primary contributor to annual mean BC deposition). Moreover, the increasing trend of the OC / BC ratio since the early 1990s indicates a growing contribution of coal combustion and/or biomass burning to the emissions. The estimated radiative forcing induced by BC and OC impurities in snow has increased since 1980, suggesting an increasing potential influence of carbonaceous aerosols on the Tibetan glacier melting and the availability of water resources in the surrounding regions. Our study indicates that more attention to OC is merited because of its non-negligible light absorption and the recent rapid increases evident in the ice-core record.« less

  15. Multi-scale geospatial agroecosystem modeling: a case study on the influence of soil data resolution on carbon budget estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Manowitz, D.; Zhao, Kaiguang; LeDuc, Stephen D.; Xu, Min; Xiong, Wei; Zhang, Aiping; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.; West, Tristram O.; Post, W. M.

    2014-05-01

    The development of effective measures to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration and mitigate negative impacts of climate change requires accurate quantification of the spatial variation and magnitude of the terrestrial carbon (C) flux. However, the spatial pattern and strength of terrestrial C sinks and sources remain uncertain. In this study, we designed a spatially-explicit agroecosystem modeling system by integrating the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model with multiple sources of geospatial and surveyed datasets (including crop type map, elevation, climate forcing, fertilizer application, tillage type and distribution, and crop planting and harvesting date), and applied it to examine the sensitivity of cropland C flux simulations to two widely used soil databases (i.e. State Soil Geographic-STATSGO of a scale of 1:250,000 and Soil Survey Geographic-SSURGO of a scale of 1:24,000) in Iowa, USA. To efficiently execute numerous EPIC runs resulting from the use of high resolution spatial data (56m), we developed a parallelized version of EPIC. Both STATSGO and SSURGO led to similar simulations of crop yields and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) estimates at the State level. However, substantial differences were observed at the county and sub-county (grid) levels. In general, the fine resolution SSURGO data outperformed the coarse resolution STATSGO data for county-scale crop-yield simulation, and within STATSGO, the area-weighted approach provided more accurate results. Further analysis showed that spatial distribution and magnitude of simulated NEP were more sensitive to the resolution difference between SSURGO and STATSGO at the county or grid scale. For over 60% of the cropland areas in Iowa, the deviations between STATSGO- and SSURGO-derived NEP were larger than 1MgCha(-1)yr(-1), or about half of the average cropland NEP, highlighting the significant uncertainty in spatial distribution and magnitude of simulated C fluxes resulting from differences in soil data resolution.

  16. Carbonaceous aerosols recorded in a southeastern Tibetan glacier: analysis of temporal variations and model estimates of sources and radiative forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Mo; Xu, B.; Cao, J.; Tie, X.; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Rudong; Qian, Yun; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhao, Shuyu; Wu, Guangjian; Zhao, Huabiao; Joswiak, Daniel R.; Li, Jiule; Xie, Ying

    2015-01-01

    High temporal resolution measurements of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) covering the time period of 1956–2006 in an ice core over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau show a distinct seasonal dependence of BC and OC with higher respective concentrations but a lower OC / BC ratio in the non-monsoon season than during the summer monsoon. We use a global aerosol-climate model, in which BC emitted from different source regions can be explicitly tracked, to quantify BC source–receptor relationships between four Asian source regions and the southeastern Tibetan Plateau as a receptor. The model results show that South Asia has the largest contribution to the present-day (1996–2005) mean BC deposition at the ice-core drilling site during the non-monsoon season (October to May) (81%) and all year round (74%), followed by East Asia (14% to the non-monsoon mean and 21% to the annual mean). The ice-core record also indicates stable and relatively low BC and OC deposition fluxes from the late 1950s to 1980, followed by an overall increase to recent years. This trend is consistent with the BC and OC emission inventories and the fuel consumption of South Asia (as the primary contributor to annual mean BC deposition). Moreover, the increasing trend of the OC / BC ratio since the early 1990s indicates a growing contribution of coal combustion and/or biomass burning to the emissions. The estimated radiative forcing induced by BC and OC impurities in snow has increased since 1980, suggesting an increasing potential influence of carbonaceous aerosols on the Tibetan glacier melting and the availability of water resources in the surrounding regions. Our study indicates that more attention to OC is merited because of its non-negligible light absorption and the recent rapid increases evident in the ice-core record.

  17. Plant Uptake of Organic Pollutants from Soil: A Critical Review of Bioconcentration Estimates Based on Models and Experiments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McKone, Thomas E.; Maddalena, Randy L.

    2008-01-01

    of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans totetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (tcdd) and related compoundsI: Estimating exposure to dioxin-like compounds. Volume 2:

  18. Estimated United States Transportation Energy Use 2005

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, C A; Simon, A J; Belles, R D

    2011-11-09

    A flow chart depicting energy flow in the transportation sector of the United States economy in 2005 has been constructed from publicly available data and estimates of national energy use patterns. Approximately 31,000 trillion British Thermal Units (trBTUs) of energy were used throughout the United States in transportation activities. Vehicles used in these activities include automobiles, motorcycles, trucks, buses, airplanes, rail, and ships. The transportation sector is powered primarily by petroleum-derived fuels (gasoline, diesel and jet fuel). Biomass-derived fuels, electricity and natural gas-derived fuels are also used. The flow patterns represent a comprehensive systems view of energy used within the transportation sector.

  19. A Unified Open-Circuit-Voltage Model of Lithium-ion Batteries for State-of-Charge Estimation and State-of-Health Monitoring $

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peng, Huei

    A Unified Open-Circuit-Voltage Model of Lithium-ion Batteries for State-of-Charge Estimation. Keywords: Electric vehicles, Lithium-ion batteries, Open-Circuit-Voltage, State-of-Charge, State is widely used for characterizing battery properties under different conditions. It contains important

  20. DEWEK Wind Energy Conference 2012 Category: 4. Simulation models BACKWARD EXTRAPOLATION OF SHORT-TIME MEASUREMENT DATA FOR A REMAINING SERVICE LIFE ESTIMATION OF WIND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berlin,Technische Universität

    DEWEK Wind Energy Conference 2012 Category: 4. Simulation models 1 BACKWARD EXTRAPOLATION OF SHORT-TIME MEASUREMENT DATA FOR A REMAINING SERVICE LIFE ESTIMATION OF WIND TURBINES Dipl.-Ing. René Kamieth, Prof. Dr, Germany, Tel.: +49-(0)30-314-23603, Fax: +49-(0)30-314-26131 Summary Wind turbines built in the last

  1. A SOLAR WARMING MODEL (SWarm) TO ESTIMATE DIURNAL CHANGES IN NEAR-SURFACE SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FOR BACK-COUNTRY AVALANCHE FORECASTING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jamieson, Bruce

    be used to measure incoming solar radiation, but they are not common due to cost and maintenance issuesA SOLAR WARMING MODEL (SWarm) TO ESTIMATE DIURNAL CHANGES IN NEAR-SURFACE SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES. To facilitate use in large forecast areas where representative meteorological data are typically scarce

  2. Scaling limits for the critical Fortuin-Kastelyn model on a random planar map II: local estimates and empty reduced word exponent

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ewain Gwynne; Xin Sun

    2015-05-13

    We continue our study of the inventory accumulation introduced by Sheffield (2011), which encodes a random planar map decorated by a collection of loops sampled from the critical Fortuin-Kastelyn (FK) model. We prove various "local" estimates for the inventory accumulation model, i.e.\\ estimates for the precise number of symbols of a given type in a word sampled from the model. Using our estimates, we obtain the scaling limit of the associated two-dimensional random walk conditioned on the event that it stays in the first quadrant for one unit of time and ends up at a particular position in the interior of the first quadrant. We also obtain the exponent for the probability that a word of length $2n$ sampled from the inventory accumulation model corresponds to an empty reduced word. The estimates of this paper will be used in a subsequent paper to obtain the scaling limit of the random walk associated with a finite-volume FK planar map.

  3. Model Selection and Health Effect Estimation in Environmental Epidemiology Francesca Dominici, Chi Wang, Ciprian Crainiceanu, Giovanni Parmigiani

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dominici, Francesca

    Abstract In air pollution epidemiology, improvements in statistical analysis tools can translate for confounding. In studies of air pollution and health, the focus should ideally be on estimating health effects estimate the association between prenatal and lifetime exposures to air pollutants and pulmonary function

  4. Joint inversion of seismic AVO and EM data for gas saturation estimation using a sampling-based stochastic model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Jinsong

    non-economic and economic gas saturation because electrical resistivity of reservoir materialsJoint inversion of seismic AVO and EM data for gas saturation estimation using a sampling- based is developed to estimate gas saturation and porosity using seismic AVO and EM data. Markov chain Monte Carlo

  5. Estimating reservoir parameters from seismic and electromagnetic data using stochastic rock-physics models and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Jinsong

    Joint inversion of 2D or 3D seismic and EM data for reservoir parameter estimation is computationallyEstimating reservoir parameters from seismic and electromagnetic data using stochastic rock, and pore pressure in reservoirs using seismic and electromagnetic (EM) data. Within the Bayesian framework

  6. Supervised learning of a regression model based on latent process. Application to the estimation of fuel cell life time

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chamroukhi, Faicel

    of fuel cell life time Raïssa Onanena(1) , Faicel Chamroukhi(1) , Latifa Oukhellou(1)(2) , Denis Candusso to estimate fuel cell duration time from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy measurements. It consists for the estimation of fuel cell time duration. The performances of the proposed approach are evaluated

  7. Supervised learning of a regression model based on latent process. Application to the estimation of Fuel Cell lifetime

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chamroukhi, Faicel

    of Fuel Cell lifetime Raïssa Onanena(1), Faicel Chamroukhi(1), Latifa Oukhellou(1), Denis Candusso(1 A probabilistic approach Parameter estimation 3 Fuel Cell lifetime estimation 4 Conclusion Faicel Chamroukhi maintenance of the Fuel Cells (FCs) Fuel Cells (FCs) are widely used in many domains including transport

  8. Second cancer incidence risk estimates using BEIR VII models for standard and complex external beam radiotherapy for early breast cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Donovan, E. M.; James, H.; Bonora, M.; Yarnold, J. R.; Evans, P. M.

    2012-10-15

    Purpose: To compare organ specific cancer incidence risks for standard and complex external beam radiotherapy (including cone beam CT verification) following breast conservation surgery for early breast cancer.Method: Doses from breast radiotherapy and kilovoltage cone beam CT (CBCT) exposures were obtained from thermoluminescent dosimeter measurements in an anthropomorphic phantom in which the positions of radiosensitive organs were delineated. Five treatment deliveries were investigated: (i) conventional tangential field whole breast radiotherapy (WBRT), (ii) noncoplanar conformal delivery applicable to accelerated partial beast irradiation (APBI), (iii) two-volume simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) treatment, (iv) forward planned three-volume SIB, and (v) inverse-planned three volume SIB. Conformal and intensity modulated radiotherapy methods were used to plan the complex treatments. Techniques spanned the range from simple methods appropriate for patient cohorts with a low cancer recurrence risk to complex plans relevant to cohorts with high recurrence risk. Delineated organs at risk included brain, salivary glands, thyroid, contralateral breast, left and right lung, esophagus, stomach, liver, colon, and bladder. Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII cancer incidence models were applied to the measured mean organ doses to determine lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for ages at exposure from 35 to 80 yr according to radiotherapy techniques, and included dose from the CBCT imaging. Results: All LAR decreased with age at exposure and were lowest for brain, thyroid, liver, and bladder (<0.1%). There was little dependence of LAR on radiotherapy technique for these organs and for colon and stomach. LAR values for the lungs for the three SIB techniques were two to three times those from WBRT and APBI. Uncertainties in the LAR models outweigh any differences in lung LAR between the SIB methods. Constraints in the planning of the SIB methods ensured that contralateral breast doses and LAR were comparable to WBRT, despite their added complexity. The smaller irradiated volume of the ABPI plan contributed to a halving of LAR for contralateral breast compared with the other plan types. Daily image guided radiotherapy (IGRT) for a left breast protocol using kilovoltage CBCT contributed <10% to LAR for the majority of organs, and did not exceed 22% of total organ dose. Conclusions: Phantom measurements and calculations of LAR from the BEIR VII models predict that complex breast radiotherapy techniques do not increase the theoretical risk of second cancer incidence for organs distant from the treated breast, or the contralateral breast where appropriate plan constraints are applied. Complex SIB treatments are predicted to increase the risk of second cancer incidence in the lungs compared to standard whole breast radiotherapy; this is outweighed by the threefold reduction in 5 yr local recurrence risk for patients of high risk of recurrence, and young age, from the use of radiotherapy. APBI may have a favorable impact on risk of second cancer in the contralateral breast and lung for older patients at low risk of recurrence. Intensive use of IGRTincreased the estimated values of LAR but these are dominated by the effect of the dose from the radiotherapy, and any increase in LAR from IGRT is much lower than the models' uncertainties.

  9. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-02-07

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  10. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Darwin, AU (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-08-10

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  11. Estimation of methane and carbon dioxide surface fluxes using a 3-D global atmospheric chemical transport model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Yu-Han, 1973-

    2004-01-01

    Methane (CH?) and carbon dioxide (CO?) are the two most radiatively important greenhouse gases attributable to human activity. Large uncertainties in their source and sink magnitudes currently exist. We estimate global ...

  12. Techno-Economic Models for Carbon Dioxide Compression, Transport, and Storage & Correlations for Estimating Carbon Dioxide Density and Viscosity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCollum, David L; Ogden, Joan M

    2006-01-01

    for estimating the drilling cost of an onshore injectionSurvey (JAS) on Drilling Costs” report. The equations of [8]C drill = capital cost for drilling of the injection well [

  13. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Darwin, AU (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  14. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  15. Techno-Economic Models for Carbon Dioxide Compression, Transport, and Storage & Correlations for Estimating Carbon Dioxide Density and Viscosity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCollum, David L; Ogden, Joan M

    2006-01-01

    C drill = capital cost for drilling of the injection well [for estimating the drilling cost of an onshore injectionSurvey (JAS) on Drilling Costs” report. The equations of [8

  16. Estimation of two-parameter multilevel item response models with predictor variables: simulation and substantiation for an urban school district 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Natesan, Prathiba

    2009-05-15

    IRT models. However, models such as 2-PL MLIRT models have not been studied yet. This dissertation consists of two studies, a simulation and a substantiation for an urban school district dataset. The simulation study tested the performance...

  17. A combined method to estimate parameters of the thalamocortical model from a heavily noise-corrupted time series of action potential

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Ruofan; Wang, Jiang; Deng, Bin Liu, Chen; Wei, Xile; Tsang, K. M.; Chan, W. L.

    2014-03-15

    A combined method composing of the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and the synchronization-based method is proposed for estimating electrophysiological variables and parameters of a thalamocortical (TC) neuron model, which is commonly used for studying Parkinson's disease for its relay role of connecting the basal ganglia and the cortex. In this work, we take into account the condition when only the time series of action potential with heavy noise are available. Numerical results demonstrate that not only this method can estimate model parameters from the extracted time series of action potential successfully but also the effect of its estimation is much better than the only use of the UKF or synchronization-based method, with a higher accuracy and a better robustness against noise, especially under the severe noise conditions. Considering the rather important role of TC neuron in the normal and pathological brain functions, the exploration of the method to estimate the critical parameters could have important implications for the study of its nonlinear dynamics and further treatment of Parkinson's disease.

  18. Stochastic Estimation of Nuclear Level Density in the Nuclear Shell Model: An Application to Parity-Dependent Level Density in $^{58}$Ni

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shimizu, Noritaka; Futamura, Yasunori; Sakurai, Tetsuya; Mizusaki, Takahiro; Otsuka, Takaharu

    2015-01-01

    We introduce a novel method to obtain level densities in large-scale shell-model calculations. Our method is a stochastic estimation of eigenvalue count based on a shifted Krylov-subspace method, which enables us to obtain level densities of huge Hamiltonian matrices. This framework leads to a successful description of both low-lying spectroscopy and the experimentally observed equilibration of $J^\\pi=2^+$ and $2^-$ states in $^{58}$Ni in a unified manner.

  19. SU-E-I-46: Sample-Size Dependence of Model Observers for Estimating Low-Contrast Detection Performance From CT Images

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reiser, I; Lu, Z [University of Chicago, Chicago, IL (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: Recently, task-based assessment of diagnostic CT systems has attracted much attention. Detection task performance can be estimated using human observers, or mathematical observer models. While most models are well established, considerable bias can be introduced when performance is estimated from a limited number of image samples. Thus, the purpose of this work was to assess the effect of sample size on bias and uncertainty of two channelized Hotelling observers and a template-matching observer. Methods: The image data used for this study consisted of 100 signal-present and 100 signal-absent regions-of-interest, which were extracted from CT slices. The experimental conditions included two signal sizes and five different x-ray beam current settings (mAs). Human observer performance for these images was determined in 2-alternative forced choice experiments. These data were provided by the Mayo clinic in Rochester, MN. Detection performance was estimated from three observer models, including channelized Hotelling observers (CHO) with Gabor or Laguerre-Gauss (LG) channels, and a template-matching observer (TM). Different sample sizes were generated by randomly selecting a subset of image pairs, (N=20,40,60,80). Observer performance was quantified as proportion of correct responses (PC). Bias was quantified as the relative difference of PC for 20 and 80 image pairs. Results: For n=100, all observer models predicted human performance across mAs and signal sizes. Bias was 23% for CHO (Gabor), 7% for CHO (LG), and 3% for TM. The relative standard deviation, ?(PC)/PC at N=20 was highest for the TM observer (11%) and lowest for the CHO (Gabor) observer (5%). Conclusion: In order to make image quality assessment feasible in the clinical practice, a statistically efficient observer model, that can predict performance from few samples, is needed. Our results identified two observer models that may be suited for this task.

  20. Continental Scale Comparisons of Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Estimated from Satellite Data and Ecosystem Modeling 1982-1998

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kumar, Vipin

    ecosystem (tundra and boreal) sinks for atmospheric CO2. Key Words: carbon dioxide, ecosystems, remote "missing sink" for carbon dioxide emissions. Measured atmospheric CO2, 13 C, and O2/N2 distributionsContinental Scale Comparisons of Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Estimated from Satellite Data

  1. Estimating the Size of Populations at High Risk of HIV in Bangladesh Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Estimating the Size of Populations at High Risk of HIV in Bangladesh Using a Bayesian Hierarchical the numbers of injecting drug users and female sex workers in Bangladesh. Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 Methods of Intravenous Drug Users in Bangladesh in 2004 7 3.1 Results from the multiplier method

  2. 654 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON CONTROL SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 18, NO. 3, MAY 2010 Model-Based Electrochemical Estimation and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    -Based Electrochemical Estimation and Constraint Management for Pulse Operation of Lithium Ion Batteries Kandler A. Smith Technologies, Graduate Automotive Technology Education Pro- gram. This work was performed at the Pennsylvania-mail: kandlers@hotmail.com; kandler_smith@nrel.gov). C. D. Rahn and C.-Y. Wang are with the Department

  3. Biophysical modelling of the effects of inhaled radon progeny on the bronchial epithelium for the estimation of the relationships applied in the two stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Madas, Balázs G

    2013-01-01

    There is a considerable debate between research groups applying the two stage clonal expansion model for lung cancer risk estimation, whether radon exposure affects initiation and transformation or promotion. The objective of the present study is to quantify the effects of radon progeny on these stages with biophysical models. For this purpose, numerical models of mutation induction and clonal growth were applied in order to estimate how initiation, transformation and promotion rates depend on tissue dose rate. It was found that rates of initiation and transformation increase monotonically with dose rate, while effective promotion rate decreases with time, but increases in a supralinear fashion with dose rate. Despite the uncertainty of the results due to the lack of experimental data, present study suggests that effects of radon exposure on both mutational events and clonal growth are significant, and should be considered in epidemiological analyses applying mathematical models of carcinogenesis.

  4. Estimating consumption rates of juvenile sandbar sharks (Carcharhinus plumbeus) in Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, using a bioenergetics model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dowd, William Wesley; Brill, R W; Bushnell, P G; Musick, J A

    2006-01-01

    error analy- sis of fish bioenergetics models. Can J. Fish.importance of activity in bioenergetics models applied toA. C. Cockcroft. 1990. Bioenergetics of fishes in a high-

  5. EVALUATION OF THE USGS NATIONAL ELEVATION DATASET AND THE KANSAS BIOLOGICAL SURVEY'S FLDPLN ("FLOODPLAIN") MODEL FOR INUNDATION EXTENT ESTIMATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dobbs, Kevin Edward

    2010-04-27

    The Kansas Biological Survey has developed a library of modeled flood inundation extents, using the FLDPLN model, for major streams across Kansas that can be accessed in near real-time to provide valuable information to disaster responders...

  6. Gallistel RET Model Instructions (4/15/03) Page 1 Instructions for Using the Excel Implementation of Rate Estimation Theory

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pylyshyn, Zenon

    ) Check that it opened to the "Lng Model" sheet (look at sheet tabs at bottom left of workbook window the section below on "Interpreting Protocols." 5) To enter a ready-made protocol into the Lng Model, select it). Go back to Lng Model sheet, select the uppermost, leftmost input cell (Cell A3, which is grayed

  7. Remote Sensing-based Estimates of Potential Evapotranspiration for Hydrologic Modeling in the Upper Colorado River Basin Region

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barik, Muhammad Ghulam

    2014-01-01

    evapotranspiration equations and their relevance to stream flow modeling in semi-arid environments.evapotranspiration equations and their relevance to stream flow modeling in semi-arid environments.evapotranspiration equations and their relevance to stream flow modeling in semi-arid environments.

  8. The `Multifractal Model' of Turbulence and {\\em A Priori} Estimates in Large-Eddy Simulation, I. Subgrid Flux and Locality of Energy Transfer

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gregory L. Eyink

    1996-02-19

    We establish and discuss {\\em a priori} estimates on subgrid stress and subgrid flux for filtering schemes used in the turbulence modelling method of Large-Eddy Simulation (LES). Our estimates are derived as rigorous consequences of the exact subgrid stress formulae from Navier-Stokes equations under realistic conditions for inertial-range velocity fields, those conjectured in the Parisi-Frisch ``multifractal model.'' The estimates are shown to be an expression of ``local energy cascade,'' i.e. the dominance of local wavevector triads in the energy transfer. We prove that for nearly any reasonable filter function the LES method defines an energy flux in which local triads dominate in individual realizations, due to cancellation of distant triadic contributions by detailed conservation. A somewhat similar observation of Leslie and Quarini on graded filters in the EDQNM closure is shown to be unrelated to the cancellation we establish in Navier-Stokes solutions. The sharp Fourier cutoff filter is one example which does not satisfy the modest conditions of our proof and, in fact, we show that with that filter the energy transfer in individual realizations at arbitrarily high Reynolds number will be dominated by nonlocal, convective sweeping.

  9. Effects of uncertainty in rock-physics models on reservoir parameter estimation using marine seismic AVA and CSEM data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Jinsong; Dickens, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    random functions of reservoir water saturation and porosity,models We relate reservoir water saturation S w and porosityexponent Saturation exponent Reservoir brine resistivity (W-

  10. Estimating Fuel Cycle Externalities: Analytical Methods and Issues, Report 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barnthouse, L.W.; Cada, G.F.; Cheng, M.-D.; Easterly, C.E.; Kroodsma, R.L.; Lee, R.; Shriner, D.S.; Tolbert, V.R.; Turner, R.S.

    1994-07-01

    The activities that produce electric power typically range from extracting and transporting a fuel, to its conversion into electric power, and finally to the disposition of residual by-products. This chain of activities is called a fuel cycle. A fuel cycle has emissions and other effects that result in unintended consequences. When these consequences affect third parties (i.e., those other than the producers and consumers of the fuel-cycle activity) in a way that is not reflected in the price of electricity, they are termed ''hidden'' social costs or externalities. They are the economic value of environmental, health and any other impacts, that the price of electricity does not reflect. How do you estimate the externalities of fuel cycles? Our previous report describes a methodological framework for doing so--called the damage function approach. This approach consists of five steps: (1) characterize the most important fuel cycle activities and their discharges, where importance is based on the expected magnitude of their externalities, (2) estimate the changes in pollutant concentrations or other effects of those activities, by modeling the dispersion and transformation of each pollutant, (3) calculate the impacts on ecosystems, human health, and any other resources of value (such as man-made structures), (4) translate the estimates of impacts into economic terms to estimate damages and benefits, and (5) assess the extent to which these damages and benefits are externalities, not reflected in the price of electricity. Each step requires a different set of equations, models and analysis. Analysts generally believe this to be the best approach for estimating externalities, but it has hardly been used! The reason is that it requires considerable analysis and calculation, and to this point in time, the necessary equations and models have not been assembled. Equally important, the process of identifying and estimating externalities leads to a number of complex issues that also have not been fully addressed. This document contains two types of papers that seek to fill part of this void. Some of the papers describe analytical methods that can be applied to one of the five steps of the damage function approach. The other papers discuss some of the complex issues that arise in trying to estimate externalities. This report, the second in a series of eight reports, is part of a joint study by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Commission of the European Communities (EC)* on the externalities of fuel cycles. Most of the papers in this report were originally written as working papers during the initial phases of this study. The papers provide descriptions of the (non-radiological) atmospheric dispersion modeling that the study uses; reviews much of the relevant literature on ecological and health effects, and on the economic valuation of those impacts; contains several papers on some of the more complex and contentious issues in estimating externalities; and describes a method for depicting the quality of scientific information that a study uses. The analytical methods and issues that this report discusses generally pertain to more than one of the fuel cycles, though not necessarily to all of them. The report is divided into six parts, each one focusing on a different subject area.

  11. Technical report: Multivariate generalized S-estimators

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Van Aelst, Stefan

    Technical report: Multivariate generalized S-estimators Roelant E. a, Van Aelst S. a Croux C. b a-estimators for the multivariate regression model. This class of estimators combines high robustness and high efficiency of residuals. In the special case of a multivariate location model, the generalized S-estimator has

  12. Development and use of the GREET model to estimate fuel-cycle energy use and emissions of various transportation technologies and fuels

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, M.Q.

    1996-03-01

    This report documents the development and use of the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model. The model, developed in a spreadsheet format, estimates the full fuel- cycle emissions and energy use associated with various transportation fuels for light-duty vehicles. The model calculates fuel-cycle emissions of five criteria pollutants (volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and particulate matter measuring 10 microns or less) and three greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide). The model also calculates the total fuel-cycle energy consumption, fossil fuel consumption, and petroleum consumption using various transportation fuels. The GREET model includes 17 fuel cycles: petroleum to conventional gasoline, reformulated gasoline, clean diesel, liquefied petroleum gas, and electricity via residual oil; natural gas to compressed natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, methanol, hydrogen, and electricity; coal to electricity; uranium to electricity; renewable energy (hydrogen, solar energy, and wind) to electricity; corn, woody biomass, and herbaceous biomass to ethanol; and landfill gases to methanol. This report presents fuel-cycle energy use and emissions for a 2000 model-year car powered by each of the fuels that are produced from the primary energy sources considered in the study.

  13. SimHydro 2012: Hydraulic modeling and uncertainty, 12-14 September 2012, Sophia Antipolis N. Jean-Baptiste, C. Dore, P-O. Malaterre, J. Sau -Data assimilation for hydraulic state estimation of a development project

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    SimHydro 2012: Hydraulic modeling and uncertainty, 12-14 September 2012, Sophia Antipolis ­ N. Jean-Baptiste, C. Dorée, P-O. Malaterre, J. Sau - Data assimilation for hydraulic state estimation of a development project Data assimilation for hydraulic state estimation of a development project Assimilation de données

  14. ECCO version 4: an integrated framework for non-linear inverse modeling and global ocean state estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ponte, R. M.

    This paper presents the ECCO v4 non-linear inverse modeling framework and its baseline solution for the evolving ocean state over the period 1992–2011. Both components are publicly available and subjected to regular, ...

  15. Comparison of numerical, analytical, and empirical models to estimate wetting patterns for surface and subsurface drip irrigation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kandelous, Maziar M.; Šim?nek, Ji?í

    2010-01-01

    and clay (33.5%), and water contents for pressures of -33times, antecedent water contents, and emitter locations, andthe saturated soil water content as one of the model

  16. Two-channel Separation of Speech Using Direction-of-arrival Estimation And Sinusoids Plus Transients Modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Virtanen, Tuomas

    Transients Modeling Mikko Parviainen1 and Tuomas Virtanen2 Institute of Signal Processing Tampere University of Technology, P.O. BOX 33101, Tampere, Finland 1 E-mail: mikko.p.parviainen@tut.fi 2 E-mail: tuomasv

  17. Percent body fat estimations in college women using field and laboratory methods: a three-compartment model approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Moon, Jordan R.; Hull, Holly R.; Tobkin, Sarah E.; Teramoto, Masaru; Karabulut, Murat; Roberts, Michael D.; Ryan, Eric D.; Kim, So Jung; Dalbo, Vincent J.; Herda, Ashley A.

    2007-11-07

    -free mass and fat mass can be used to identify minimal nutri- tion requirements and resting energy expenditure [2,3]. Additionally, sports nutrition experts can utilize body composition values to develop specific dietary interven- tions. Validated laboratory... is not in total agreement when comparing HW to the multiple-compartment model in adult women [4,8]. Ultimately, both multiple- compartment models and HW entail greater facility requirements and are more costly compared to more con- venient field methods...

  18. Interpreting the Global 21-cm Signal from High Redshifts. II. Parameter Estimation for Models of Galaxy Formation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mirocha, Jordan; Burns, Jack O

    2015-01-01

    Following our previous work, which related generic features in the sky-averaged (global) 21-cm signal to properties of the intergalactic medium, we now investigate the prospects for constraining a simple galaxy formation model with current and near-future experiments. Markov-Chain Monte Carlo fits to our synthetic dataset, which includes a realistic galactic foreground, a plausible model for the signal, and noise consistent with 100 hours of integration by an ideal instrument, suggest that a simple four-parameter model that links the production rate of Lyman-$\\alpha$, Lyman-continuum, and X-ray photons to the growth rate of dark matter halos can be well-constrained (to $\\sim 0.1$ dex in each dimension) so long as all three spectral features expected to occur between $40 \\lesssim \

  19. Export of reactive nitrogen from coal-fired power plants in the U.S.: Estimates from a plume-in-grid modeling study - article no. D04308

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vijayaraghavan, K.; Zhang, Y.; Seigneur, C.; Karamchandani, P.; Snell, H.E.

    2009-02-15

    The export of reactive nitrogen (nitrogen oxides and their oxidation products, collectively referred to as NOy) from coal-fired power plants in the U.S. to the rest of the world could have a significant global contribution to ozone. Traditional Eulerian gridded air quality models cannot characterize accurately the chemistry and transport of plumes from elevated point sources such as power plant stacks. A state-of-the-science plume-in-grid (PinG) air quality model, a reactive plume model embedded in an Eulerian gridded model, is used to estimate the export of NOy from 25 large coal-fired power plants in the U. S. (in terms of NOx and SO{sub 2} emissions) in July 2001 to the global atmosphere. The PinG model used is the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model with Advanced Plume Treatment (CMAQ-APT). A benchmark simulation with only the gridded model, CMAQ, is also conducted for comparison purposes. The simulations with and without advanced plume treatment show differences in the calculated export of NOy from the 25 plants considered reflecting the effect of using a detailed and explicit treatment of plume transport and chemistry. The advanced plume treatment results in 31% greater simulated export of NOy compared to the purely grid-based modeling approach. The export efficiency of NOy (the fraction of NOy emitted that is exported) is predicted to be 21% without APT and 27% with APT. When considering only export through the eastern boundary across the Atlantic, CMAQ-APT predicts that the export efficiency is 24% and that 2% of NOy is exported as NOx, 49% as inorganic nitrate, and 25% as PAN. These results are in reasonably good agreement with an analysis reported in the literature of aircraft measurements over the North Atlantic.

  20. A Phenomenological Model of Bulk Force in a Li-Ion Battery Pack and Its Application to State of Charge Estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mohan, S; Kim, Y; Siegel, JB; Samad, NA; Stefanopoulou, AG

    2014-09-19

    A phenomenological model of the bulk force exerted by a lithium ion cell during various charge, discharge, and temperature operating conditions is developed. The measured and modeled force resembles the carbon expansion behavior associated with the phase changes during intercalation, as there are ranges of state of charge (SOC) with a gradual force increase and ranges of SOC with very small change in force. The model includes the influence of temperature on the observed force capturing the underlying thermal expansion phenomena. Moreover the model is capable of describing the changes in force during thermal transients, when internal battery heating due to high C-rates or rapid changes in the ambient temperature, which create a mismatch in the temperature of the cell and the holding fixture. It is finally shown that the bulk force model can be very useful for a more accurate and robust SOC estimation based on fusing information from voltage and force (or pressure) measurements. (C) The Author(s) 2014. Published by ECS. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives 4.0 License (CC BY-NC-ND, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is not changed in any way and is properly cited. For permission for commercial reuse, please email oa@electrochem.org. All rights reserved.

  1. Real-time Global Flood Estimation using Satellite-based Precipitation and a Coupled Land Surface and Routing Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, Huan; Adler, Robert F.; Tian, Yudong; Huffman, George; Li, Hongyi; Wang, Jianjian

    2014-04-09

    A community land surface model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, is coupled with a newly developed hierarchical dominant river tracing-based runoff-routing model to form the Dominant river tracing-Routing Integrated with VIC Environment (DRIVE) model system, which serves as the new core of the real-time Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS). The GFMS uses real-time satellite-based precipitation to derive flood-monitoring parameters for the latitude-band 50{degree sign}N-50{degree sign}S at relatively high spatial (~12km) and temporal (3-hourly) resolution. Examples of model results for recent flood events are computed using the real-time GFMS (http://flood.umd.edu). To evaluate the accuracy of the new GFMS, the DRIVE model is run retrospectively for 15 years using both research-quality and real-time satellite precipitation products. Statistical results are slightly better for the research-quality input and significantly better for longer duration events (three-day events vs. one-day events). Basins with fewer dams tend to provide lower false alarm ratios. For events longer than three days in areas with few dams, the probability of detection is ~0.9 and the false alarm ratio is ~0.6. In general, these statistical results are better than those of the previous system. Streamflow was evaluated at 1,121 river gauges across the quasi-global domain. Validation using real-time precipitation across the tropics (30ºS-30ºN) gives positive daily Nash-Sutcliffe Coef?cients for 107 out of 375 (28%) stations with a mean of 0.19 and 51% of the same gauges at monthly scale with a mean of 0.33. There were poorer results in higher latitudes, probably due to larger errors in the satellite precipitation input.

  2. A New EM Algorithm for Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Two-level Structural Equation Models with Arbitrary Sample Designs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jiajuan Liang; Peter Bentler

    2011-01-01

    The model can be expressed as ( Vgi 9i v v w i t h the basicis given by 5 V = cov I \\Vgi I , J S I , w and the between-value v . g g YgO q+(N Vgi N g Under the basic assumptions B

  3. Robust UAV Coordination for Target Tracking using Output-Feedback Model Predictive Control with Moving Horizon Estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hespanha, João Pedro

    Robust UAV Coordination for Target Tracking using Output-Feedback Model Predictive Control consider the control of two UAVs tracking an evasive moving ground vehicle. The UAVs are small fixed-wing aircraft equipped with gimbaled cameras and must coordinate their control actions so that at least one UAV

  4. Multiprocessor Resource Estimation Using a Stochastic Modeling Approach D. L. Andrews, M. A. Thornton, J. D. Bullard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thornton, Mitchell

    required resources.. The accuracy of the model is measured by validation using parallelism profiles under functions is presented. By using a data dependence graph, or alternatively, an available parallelism profile to a finite number of processing elements. 1 Introduction Parallelism profiles have been used in the past

  5. Modeling the clearance of hyaluronan: an approach to estimating Martin Fink, Andreas Rossler and Jerry J Batzel

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Batzel, Jerry

    flow dynamics. This model is an approach to assess the lymph flow by measurements of the substance chain of alternating units of glucuronic acid and N­acetylglucosamine that is linked glycosidically via, it takes part in the regulation of tissue hydration and is an important determinant for hydraulic

  6. Flow Sensing for Height Estimation and Control of a Rotor in Ground Effect: Modeling and Experimental Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shapiro, Benjamin

    are presented and the effect of motor dynamics on the overall dynamics are investigated. Flowfield velocity the helicopter aerodynamics onboard and modulates the motor torque, rather than the collective pitch, during take- niques often require a system model with empirically fit aero- dynamic coefficients that are unique

  7. Quantifying uncertainty in estimates of mineral dust flux: An intercomparison of model performance over the Bodele Depression,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    's radiation budget through absorption and scattering of solar and terrestrial radiation, (2) the indirect and regional, but to date, there have been few attempts to compare the performance of these models impact of mineral dust in particular is relatively poorly understood, despite evidence that the radiative

  8. Model-dependent estimate on the connection between fast radio bursts and ultra high energy cosmic rays

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Xiang; Zhou, Bei; He, Hao-Ning; Fan, Yi-Zhong; Wei, Da-Ming, E-mail: yzfan@pmo.ac.cn [Key Laboratory of Dark Matter and Space Astronomy, Purple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Science, Nanjing 210008 (China)

    2014-12-10

    The existence of fast radio bursts (FRBs), a new type of extragalatic transient, has recently been established, and quite a few models have been proposed. In this work, we discuss the possible connection between the FRB sources and ultra high energy (>10{sup 18} eV) cosmic rays. We show that in the blitzar model and the model of merging binary neutron stars, which includes the huge energy release of each FRB central engine together with the rather high rate of FRBs, the accelerated EeV cosmic rays may contribute significantly to the observed ones. In other FRB models, including, for example, the merger of double white dwarfs and the energetic magnetar radio flares, no significant EeV cosmic ray is expected. We also suggest that the mergers of double neutron stars, even if they are irrelevant to FRBs, may play a nonignorable role in producing EeV cosmic ray protons if supramassive neutron stars are formed in a sufficient fraction of mergers and the merger rate is ? 10{sup 3} yr{sup –1} Gpc{sup –3}. Such a possibility will be unambiguously tested in the era of gravitational wave astronomy.

  9. A simplified model for estimating population-scale energy impacts of building envelope air-tightening and mechanical ventilation retrofits

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Logue, J. M.; Turner, W. J.N.; Walker, I. S.; Singer, B. C.

    2015-07-01

    Changing the air exchange rate of a home (the sum of the infiltration and mechanical ventilation airflow rates) affects the annual thermal conditioning energy. Large-scale changes to air exchange rates of the housing stock can significantly alter the residential sector’s energy consumption. However, the complexity of existing residential energy models is a barrier to the accurate quantification of the impact of policy changes on a state or national level.

  10. Detecting Unknown Turning Points Using Piecewise Growth Mixture Models: A Comparison of ML/EM versus Bayesian Estimation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ning, Ling

    2015-08-05

    (IC) statistics, (b) nested model likelihood ratio test derivative, (c) the entropy statistic and entropy-penalty based indexes, (d) goodness of fit tests (Bauer & Curran, 2003b; Liu & Hancock, 2014; Peugh & Fan, 2012; Peugh & Fan, 2015; Tofighi... rescaled entropy 18 measure proposed by Ramaswamy, DeSarbo, Reibstein, and Robinson (1993). The rescaled entropy ranges from 0 to 1 with 1 indicating perfect classification (Bauer & Curran, 2003a; B. Muthén & Muthén, 2000). Celeux & Soromenho (1996...

  11. Cost Estimating, Analysis, and Standardization

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1984-11-02

    To establish policy and responsibilities for: (a) developing and reviewing project cost estimates; (b) preparing independent cost estimates and analysis; (c) standardizing cost estimating procedures; and (d) improving overall cost estimating and analytical techniques, cost data bases, cost and economic escalation models, and cost estimating systems. Cancels DOE O 5700.2B, dated 8-5-1983; DOE O 5700.8, dated 5-27-1981; and HQ 1130.1A, dated 12-30-1981. Canceled by DOE O 5700.2D, dated 6-12-1992

  12. Top-down estimate of anthropogenic emission inventories and their interannual variability in Houston using a mesoscale inverse modeling technique

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brioude, J.; Kim, S. W.; Angevine, Wayne M.; Frost, G. J.; Lee, S. H.; McKeen, S. A.; Trainer, Michael; Fehsenfeld, Fred C.; Holloway, J. S.; Ryerson, T. B.; Williams, E. J.; Petron, Gabrielle; Fast, Jerome D.

    2011-10-31

    The 2000 and 2006 Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS 2000 and 2006) field campaigns took place in eastern Texas in August-October of 2000 and 2006. Several flights of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) research aircraft were dedicated to characterizing anthropogenic emissions over Houston. Houston is known for having serious problems with non-attainment of air quality standards. We present a method that uses three models and aircraft observations to assess and improve existing emission inventories using an inverse modeling technique. We used 3-dimensional and 4-dimensional variational (3D-VAR and 4D-VAR) inverse modeling techniques based on a least-squares method to improve the spatial and temporal distribution of CO, NOy (sum of all reactive nitrogen compounds), and SO2 emissions predicted by the 4-km-resolution U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Emission Inventory (NEI) for 2005. Differences between the prior and posterior inventories are discussed in detail. We found that in 2006 the prior daytime emissions in the urban area of Houston have to be reduced by 40% {+-} 12% for CO and 7% {+-} 13% for NOy. Over the Houston Ship Channel, where industrial emissions are predominant, the prior emissions have to be reduced by 41% {+-} 15% for CO and 51% {+-} 9% for NOy. Major ports around Houston have their NOy emissions reduced as well, probably due to uncertainties in near-shore ship emissions in the EPA NEI inventory. Using the measurements from the two field campaigns, we assessed the interannual emission variability between 2000 and 2006. Daytime CO emissions from the Houston urban area have been reduced by 8% {+-} 20%, while the NOy emissions have increased by 20% {+-} 12% from 2000 to 2006. In the Houston Ship Channel, the daytime NOy emissions have increased by 13% {+-} 17%. Our results show qualitative consistencies with known changes in Houston emissions sources.

  13. Model Description 3.1 Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ford, David N.

    this process by depicting the model from three relatively context-free vantage points. First the model itself in subsequent chapters. A signal processing model of a portion of the Product Development Project Model-development operations Resource Quantity Intra-phase process constraints Error Generation & Discovery Iteration & Rework

  14. A model for determining shelf life, estimating terminal body composition, yield grade and quality grade of feedlot cattle 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perry, Richard Jay

    1985-01-01

    4. 5 percentage units less fat (21. 64% vs 26, 1% carcass fat) than non-implanted steers of the same carcass weight and rate of gain (350 kg and ADG of 1. 0 kg/d). Fat as a percentage of gain averaged 67. 85, 52. 05 and 39. 59 for non... model which can be used for projecting changes in yield grade and quality grade with performance of cattle in the feedlot over time. The primary objectives of this research were: 1) To determine the "shelf life" of a steer in the feedlot. 2...

  15. Concentrating Solar Deployment System (CSDS) -- A New Model for Estimating U.S. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Market Potential: Preprint

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration would like submit the followingConcentrating Solar Deployment System (CSDS) - A New Model for

  16. such structure is depicted in the upper panel of Fig. 4b. It compares very well qualitatively with the model result shown in the lower

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thompson, Anne

    aspects of these self-assembly mechanisms have previously been rationalized on the basis of seemingly of its energetics and dynamical rules, the degree of local order and anisotropy out of equilibrium. Bray, A. J. Theory of phase-ordering kinetics. Adv. Phys. 43, 357­459 (1994). 2. Tanaka, H

  17. Best Linear Unbiased Estimate Motivation for BLUE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fowler, Mark

    1 Chapter 6 Best Linear Unbiased Estimate (BLUE) #12;2 Motivation for BLUE Except for Linear Model to a sub-optimal estimate BLUE is one such sub-optimal estimate Idea for BLUE: 1. Restrict estimate) Advantage of BLUE:Needs only 1st and 2nd moments of PDF Mean & Covariance Disadvantages of BLUE: 1. Sub

  18. Assignment 5 Part B Statistical Lifetime-Models Oxford HT 2015 IX A.5 Censoring and truncation, Kaplan-Meier estimator

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Winkel, Matthias

    , Kaplan-Meier estimator 1. Public health officials often compare the effects of different changes function in terms of the underlying lifetime distribution. What form will the Kaplan-Meier estimate that when no censoring or truncation occurs, the Kaplan-Meier estimator corresponds to the empirical

  19. Exploring chaos to model the design process 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sharkawy, Ahmed

    1990-01-01

    of design as a sequence of three rational processes (14) 10 Jansson's tsvo space model (15) 4 The different types of constraints within the design process The major processes occuring in Jansson's concept space. 19 6 Figure 6a depicts the skeleton upon... model and how it fits within March's depiction 9 Reduced two variable model and how it fits within Jansson's scheme . . 45 10 Map of case: 3=2. 0, /=50, d=0. 15 47 11 Map of case: %=2. 2, y=50, d=0. 15 48 12 Map of' case: 4=2. 6, @=50, d=0. 15 49...

  20. Harmonizing Systems and Software Cost Estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Gan

    2009-07-19

    The objective of this paper is to examine the gaps and overlaps between software and systems engineering cost models with intent to harmonize the estimates in engineering engineering estimation. In particular, we evaluate ...

  1. Parameter Estimation Through Ignorance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hailiang Du; Leonard A. Smith

    2012-06-06

    Dynamical modelling lies at the heart of our understanding of physical systems. Its role in science is deeper than mere operational forecasting, in that it allows us to evaluate the adequacy of the mathematical structure of our models. Despite the importance of model parameters, there is no general method of parameter estimation outside linear systems. A new relatively simple method of parameter estimation for nonlinear systems is presented, based on variations in the accuracy of probability forecasts. It is illustrated on the Logistic Map, the Henon Map and the 12-D Lorenz96 flow, and its ability to outperform linear least squares in these systems is explored at various noise levels and sampling rates. As expected, it is more effective when the forecast error distributions are non-Gaussian. The new method selects parameter values by minimizing a proper, local skill score for continuous probability forecasts as a function of the parameter values. This new approach is easier to implement in practice than alternative nonlinear methods based on the geometry of attractors or the ability of the model to shadow the observations. New direct measures of inadequacy in the model, the "Implied Ignorance" and the information deficit are introduced.

  2. Deriving a Framework for Estimating Individual Tree Measurements with Lidar for Use in the TAMBEETLE Southern Pine Beetle Infestation Growth Model 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stukey, Jared D.

    2011-02-22

    , individual bole height (IBH), diameter at breast height (DBH), length of crown (CrHT), and age for use in TAMBEETLE; (2) to estimate individual tree age using lidar-estimated height and site index provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA...

  3. Estimating solar irradiance using a geostationary satellite

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Urquhart, Bryan Glenn

    2011-01-01

    Heliosat procedure for irradiance Estimates from Satellitethe pro duction of solar irradiance and daylight illuminancesatellite based solar irradiance modelling - The SOLIS clear

  4. Contribution to the development of DOE ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data (CMBE) products: Satellite data over the ARM permanent and AMF sites: Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xie, B; Dong, X; Xie, S

    2012-05-18

    To support the LLNL ARM infrastructure team Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) data development, the University of North Dakota (UND)'s group will provide the LLNL team the NASA CERES and ISCCP satellite retrieved cloud and radiative properties for the periods when they are available over the ARM permanent research sites. The current available datasets, to date, are as follows: the CERES/TERRA during 200003-200812; the CERES/AQUA during 200207-200712; and the ISCCP during 199601-200806. The detailed parameters list below: (1) CERES Shortwave radiative fluxes (net and downwelling); (2) CERES Longwave radiative fluxes (upwelling) - (items 1 & 2 include both all-sky and clear-sky fluxes); (3) CERES Layered clouds (total, high, middle, and low); (4) CERES Cloud thickness; (5) CERES Effective cloud height; (6) CERES cloud microphysical/optical properties; (7) ISCCP optical depth cloud top pressure matrix; (8) ISCCP derived cloud types (r.g., cirrus, stratus, etc.); and (9) ISCCP infrared derived cloud top pressures. (10) The UND group shall apply necessary quality checks to the original CERES and ISCCP data to remove suspicious data points. The temporal resolution for CERES data should be all available satellite overpasses over the ARM sites; for ISCCP data, it should be 3-hourly. The spatial resolution is the closest satellite field of view observations to the ARM surface sites. All the provided satellite data should be in a format that is consistent with the current ARM CMBE dataset so that the satellite data can be easily merged into the CMBE dataset.

  5. Estimate product quality with ANNs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brambilla, A. [Univ. of Pisa (Italy); Trivella, F. [Adicon Advanced Distillation Control SrL, Pisa (Italy)

    1996-09-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been applied to predict catalytic reformer octane number (ON) and gasoline splitter product qualities. Results show that ANNs are a valuable tool to derive fast and accurate product quality measurements, and offer a low-cost alternative to online analyzers or rigorous mathematical models. The paper describes product quality measurements, artificial neural networks, ANN structure, estimating gasoline octane numbers, and estimating naphtha splitter product qualities.

  6. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Manus Island, PNG with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-02-07

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  7. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-02-07

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  8. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Darwin, AU with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-02-07

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  9. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-02-07

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  10. Characterization of the Femoral Neck Region’s Reponse to the Rat Hindlimb Unloading Model through Tomographic Scanning, Mechanical Testing and Estimated Strengths 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kupke, Joshua Scott

    2011-02-22

    quantitative computed tomography (pQCT), mechanical testing in two different loading conditions, and estimated strength indices. Adult male Sprague-Dawley rats (6-mo) were grouped into baseline (BL), ambulatory cage control (CC) and hindlimb unloaded (HU); HU...

  11. Estimating past hepatitis C infection risk from reported risk factor histories: implications for imputing age of infection and modeling fibrosis progression

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2007-01-01

    Estimating past hepatitis C infection risk from reportedHS. The prevalence of hepatitis C virus infection in theStatement Management of Hepatitis C: June 10-12, 2002. HIV

  12. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Darwin, AU with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  13. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Manus Island, PNG with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  14. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  15. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  16. Model independent foreground power spectrum estimation using WMAP 5-year data Tuhin Ghosh,1,* Rajib Saha,1,2,3,4,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Souradeep, Tarun

    Saha,1,2,3,4, Pankaj Jain,4, and Tarun Souradeep1,x 1 IUCAA, Post Bag 4, Ganeshkhind, Pune-411007 of CMB power spectrum estimation was proposed by Saha et al. 2006. This methodology demonstrates

  17. Interconnect Delay and Area Estimation for Multiple-Pin Nets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pan, David Z.

    ,000,000 second = 3 years ! #12;Needs for Efficient Interconnect Estimation Models nn EfficiencyEfficiency nn

  18. PSM: Lithium-Ion Battery State of Charge (SOC) and Critical Surface Charge (CSC) Estimation using an Electrochemical Model-driven

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stefanopoulou, Anna

    PSM: Lithium-Ion Battery State of Charge (SOC) and Critical Surface Charge (CSC) Estimation using. INTRODUCTION Lithium-ion battery is the core of new plug-in hybrid- electrical vehicles (PHEV) as well transient loads [22]. The importance of lithium-ion battery has grown in the past years. Based

  19. Cost Estimation Package

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    This chapter focuses on the components (or elements) of the cost estimation package and their documentation.

  20. Estimated United States Residential Energy Use in 2005

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, C A; Johnson, D M; Simon, A J; Belles, R D

    2011-12-12

    A flow chart depicting energy flow in the residential sector of the United States economy in 2005 has been constructed from publicly available data and estimates of national energy use patterns. Approximately 11,000 trillion British Thermal Units (trBTUs) of electricity and fuels were used throughout the United States residential sector in lighting, electronics, air conditioning, space heating, water heating, washing appliances, cooking appliances, refrigerators, and other appliances. The residential sector is powered mainly by electricity and natural gas. Other fuels used include petroleum products (fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas and kerosene), biomass (wood), and on-premises solar, wind, and geothermal energy. The flow patterns represent a comprehensive systems view of energy used within the residential sector.

  1. Drought: Monitoring, Estimation and Prediction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    .S. disaster before hurricane Katrina) Significant social consequences (e.g. Dust Bowl) Challenges U.S. dataset (1915-present) Need method for objective identification and estimation of drought Capacity model Solves energy and water balance over gridded domain Sub-grid variability in topography

  2. Estimated Carbon Dioxide Emissions in 2008: United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, C A; Simon, A J; Belles, R D

    2011-04-01

    Flow charts depicting carbon dioxide emissions in the United States have been constructed from publicly available data and estimates of state-level energy use patterns. Approximately 5,800 million metric tons of carbon dioxide were emitted throughout the United States for use in power production, residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation applications in 2008. Carbon dioxide is emitted from the use of three major energy resources: natural gas, coal, and petroleum. The flow patterns are represented in a compact 'visual atlas' of 52 state-level (all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and one national) carbon dioxide flow charts representing a comprehensive systems view of national CO{sub 2} emissions. Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL) has published flow charts (also referred to as 'Sankey Diagrams') of important national commodities since the early 1970s. The most widely recognized of these charts is the U.S. energy flow chart (http://flowcharts.llnl.gov). LLNL has also published charts depicting carbon (or carbon dioxide potential) flow and water flow at the national level as well as energy, carbon, and water flows at the international, state, municipal, and organizational (i.e. United States Air Force) level. Flow charts are valuable as single-page references that contain quantitative data about resource, commodity, and byproduct flows in a graphical form that also convey structural information about the system that manages those flows. Data on carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector are reported on a national level. Because carbon dioxide emissions are not reported for individual states, the carbon dioxide emissions are estimated using published energy use information. Data on energy use is compiled by the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (U.S. EIA) in the State Energy Data System (SEDS). SEDS is updated annually and reports data from 2 years prior to the year of the update. SEDS contains data on primary resource consumption, electricity generation, and energy consumption within each economic sector. Flow charts of state-level energy usage and explanations of the calculations and assumptions utilized can be found at: http://flowcharts.llnl.gov. This information is translated into carbon dioxide emissions using ratios of carbon dioxide emissions to energy use calculated from national carbon dioxide emissions and national energy use quantities for each particular sector. These statistics are reported annually in the U.S. EIA's Annual Energy Review. Data for 2008 (US. EIA, 2010) was updated in August of 2010. This is the first presentation of a comprehensive state-level package of flow charts depicting carbon dioxide emissions for the United States.

  3. Check Estimates and Independent Costs

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    Check estimates and independent cost estimates (ICEs) are tools that can be used to validate a cost estimate. Estimate validation entails an objective review of the estimate to ensure that estimate criteria and requirements have been met and well documented, defensible estimate has been developed. This chapter describes check estimates and their procedures and various types of independent cost estimates.

  4. Efficient Semiparametric Estimators for Biological, Genetic, and Measurement Error Applications 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garcia, Tanya

    2012-10-19

    Many statistical models, like measurement error models, a general class of survival models, and a mixture data model with random censoring, are semiparametric where interest lies in estimating finite-dimensional parameters ...

  5. Input estimation from measured structural response

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harvey, Dustin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Cross, Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Silva, Ramon A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Farrar, Charles R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bement, Matt [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    This report will focus on the estimation of unmeasured dynamic inputs to a structure given a numerical model of the structure and measured response acquired at discrete locations. While the estimation of inputs has not received as much attention historically as state estimation, there are many applications where an improved understanding of the immeasurable input to a structure is vital (e.g. validating temporally varying and spatially-varying load models for large structures such as buildings and ships). In this paper, the introduction contains a brief summary of previous input estimation studies. Next, an adjoint-based optimization method is used to estimate dynamic inputs to two experimental structures. The technique is evaluated in simulation and with experimental data both on a cantilever beam and on a three-story frame structure. The performance and limitations of the adjoint-based input estimation technique are discussed.

  6. State energy data report 1994: Consumption estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-10-01

    This document provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), operated by EIA. SEDS provides State energy consumption estimates to members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public, and provides the historical series needed for EIA`s energy models. Division is made for each energy type and end use sector. Nuclear electric power is included.

  7. Abstract--The Black-Scholes (B-S) model is the traditional tool for giving a theoretical estimate of the price of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Thomas

    of the price of European-style options. However, the basic assumptions on the assets and market made in the B-S model are ideal. Furthermore, a lot of factors which might affect the prices of options have not been) are applied to forecast the prices of stock options by using the six basic factors in the B-S model

  8. Types of Cost Estimates

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    The chapter describes the estimates required on government-managed projects for both general construction and environmental management.

  9. MODEL OF THE .MIGRATION OF ALBACORE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MODEL OF THE .MIGRATION OF ALBACORE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN .By TAMIO OTSU and RICHARD N. UCHIDA of the migration of albacore in the North Pacific Ocean has been developed. This model is consistent with the hypothesis that there is a single population of albacore in the North Pacific Ocean. . The model depicts

  10. Satellite-based estimates of net radiation and modeling the role of topography and vegetation on inter-annual hydro-climatology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bisht, Gautam

    2010-01-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change acknowledged that the lack of relevant observations in various regions of the world is a crucial gap in understanding and modeling impacts of ...

  11. gtp_flow_power_estimator.xlsx

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This simple spreadsheet model estimates either the flow rate required to produce a specified level of power output, or the power output that can be produced from a specified flow rate.

  12. Fracture compliance estimation using borehole tube waves

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bakku, Sudhish Kumar

    We tested two models, one for tube-wave generation and the other for tube-wave attenuation at a fracture intersecting a borehole that can be used to estimate fracture compliance, fracture aperture, and lateral extent. In ...

  13. Estimating Shortwave Radiative Forcing and Response in Climate Models K. E. TAYLOR,* M. CRUCIFIX, ,& P. BRACONNOT,# C. D. HEWITT, C. DOUTRIAUX,* A. J. BROCCOLI,@

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Broccoli, Anthony J.

    relative to full PRP calculations in two experiments: one in which carbon dioxide concentration is doubled in their ice sheet albedo forcing fields are clearly captured by the APRP method. Hence this method. 2001). Likewise, models used to simulate the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum produce a range

  14. Abstract--In this paper a closed-form 2D analytical model developed for the estimation of eddy current loss in interior

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Noé, Reinhold

    current loss in interior permanent magnet machines is presented. To check the generality of the developed model, two different types of commonly employed interior permanent magnet machines are considered. 2D of 2 as in applications like hybrid and pure electric cars [1]. These motors are fed from an inverter

  15. Statistical maritime radar duct estimation using hybrid genetic algorithm-Markov chain Monte Carlo method

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yardim, Caglar; Gerstoft, Peter; Hodgkiss, William S.

    2007-01-01

    Estimating evaporation duct heights from radar sea echo,”Estimation of surface-based duct parameters from surfaceapplication of an evaporation duct model,” Radio Science,

  16. Faceted Models of Blog Feeds Department of Computer

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meng, Weiyi

    Faceted Models of Blog Feeds Lifeng Jia Department of Computer Science University of Illinois@cs.binghamton.edu ABSTRACT Faceted blog distillation aims at retrieving the blogs that are not only relevant to a query blogs depict various topics related to the personal experiences of bloggers while official blogs deliver

  17. A Configurable Reference Modelling Language1 M. Rosemanna

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van der Aalst, Wil

    , Configuration, Event-driven Process Chains 1 This research project is financially supported by SAP Corporate reference models "just" depict the possible system capabilities and cannot sufficiently guide the project, Eindhoven, The Netherlands, w.m.p.v.d.aalst@tm.tue.nl Abstract Enterprise Systems (ES) are comprehensive off

  18. Estimating Specialty Costs

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    Specialty costs are those nonstandard, unusual costs that are not typically estimated. Costs for research and development (R&D) projects involving new technologies, costs associated with future regulations, and specialty equipment costs are examples of specialty costs. This chapter discusses those factors that are significant contributors to project specialty costs and methods of estimating costs for specialty projects.

  19. Distributed Road Grade Estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johansson, Karl Henrik

    Distributed Road Grade Estimation for Heavy Duty Vehicles PER SAH LHOLM Doctoral Thesis in Automatic Control Stockholm, Sweden 2011 #12;Distributed Road Grade Estimation for Heavy Duty Vehicles PER state-of-charge control decrease the energy consumption of vehicles and increase the safety

  20. SPACE TECHNOLOGY Actual Estimate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    technology readiness of new missions, mitigate their technological risks, improve the quality of cost estimates, and thereby contribute to better overall mission cost management..." Space Technology investmentsSPACE TECHNOLOGY TECH-1 Actual Estimate Budget Authority (in $ millions) FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY

  1. Conceptual Model Summary Report Simulation Framework for Regional Geologic CO{sub 2} Storage Along Arches Province of Midwestern United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2011-06-30

    A conceptual model was developed for the Arches Province that integrates geologic and hydrologic information on the Eau Claire and Mt. Simon formations into a geocellular model. The conceptual model describes the geologic setting, stratigraphy, geologic structures, hydrologic features, and distribution of key hydraulic parameters. The conceptual model is focused on the Mt. Simon sandstone and Eau Claire formations. The geocellular model depicts the parameters and conditions in a numerical array that may be imported into the numerical simulations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) storage. Geophysical well logs, rock samples, drilling logs, geotechnical test results, and reservoir tests were evaluated for a 500,000 km{sup 2} study area centered on the Arches Province. The geologic and hydraulic data were integrated into a three-dimensional (3D) grid of porosity and permeability, which are key parameters regarding fluid flow and pressure buildup due to CO{sub 2} injection. Permeability data were corrected in locations where reservoir tests have been performed in Mt. Simon injection wells. The final geocellular model covers an area of 600 km by 600 km centered on the Arches Province. The geocellular model includes a total of 24,500,000 cells representing estimated porosity and permeability distribution. CO{sub 2} injection scenarios were developed for on-site and regional injection fields at rates of 70 to 140 million metric tons per year.

  2. Estimating exposure of terrestrial wildlife to contaminants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sample, B.E.; Suter, G.W. II

    1994-09-01

    This report describes generalized models for the estimation of contaminant exposure experienced by wildlife on the Oak Ridge Reservation. The primary exposure pathway considered is oral ingestion, e.g. the consumption of contaminated food, water, or soil. Exposure through dermal absorption and inhalation are special cases and are not considered hereIN. Because wildlife mobile and generally consume diverse diets and because environmental contamination is not spatial homogeneous, factors to account for variation in diet, movement, and contaminant distribution have been incorporated into the models. To facilitate the use and application of the models, life history parameters necessary to estimate exposure are summarized for 15 common wildlife species. Finally, to display the application of the models, exposure estimates were calculated for four species using data from a source operable unit on the Oak Ridge Reservation.

  3. Risk Analytics for Estimating and Validating Magnitude of Earthquake Losses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rau-Chaplin, Andrew

    Risk Analytics for Estimating and Validating Magnitude of Earthquake Losses A. Astoul, C. Filliter-time estimation and visualisation of insured losses incurred due to earthquakes is presented. The system incorporates a model for estimating losses due to earthquakes in near real-time and a geo

  4. Hybrid Systems State estimation for hybrid systems: applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tomlin, Claire

    Hybrid Systems State estimation for hybrid systems: applications to aircraft tracking I. Hwang, H of a stochastic linear hybrid system, given only the continuous system output data, is studied. Well established techniques for hybrid estimation, known as the multiple model adaptive estimation algorithm

  5. A simple method to estimate interwell autocorrelation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pizarro, J.O.S.; Lake, L.W.

    1997-08-01

    The estimation of autocorrelation in the lateral or interwell direction is important when performing reservoir characterization studies using stochastic modeling. This paper presents a new method to estimate the interwell autocorrelation based on parameters, such as the vertical range and the variance, that can be estimated with commonly available data. We used synthetic fields that were generated from stochastic simulations to provide data to construct the estimation charts. These charts relate the ratio of areal to vertical variance and the autocorrelation range (expressed variously) in two directions. Three different semivariogram models were considered: spherical, exponential and truncated fractal. The overall procedure is demonstrated using field data. We find that the approach gives the most self-consistent results when it is applied to previously identified facies. Moreover, the autocorrelation trends follow the depositional pattern of the reservoir, which gives confidence in the validity of the approach.

  6. : Helmholtz machine estimation .

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : Helmholtz machine density estimation . . : . . . (supervised learning) , (active learning) (query learning) [1, 3]. . (unsupervised learning), . , [5]. . Helmholtz machine , . Helmholtz machine : Helmholtz machine [2] . Helmholtz machine (generative network) (recognition network) . , , . Helmholtz machine (self

  7. Cost Estimating Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-05-09

    This Guide provides uniform guidance and best practices that describe the methods and procedures that could be used in all programs and projects at DOE for preparing cost estimates. No cancellations.

  8. Estimation of food consumption

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Callaway, J.M. Jr.

    1992-04-01

    The research reported in this document was conducted as a part of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project. The objective of the HEDR Project is to estimate the radiation doses that people could have received from operations at the Hanford Site. Information required to estimate these doses includes estimates of the amounts of potentially contaminated foods that individuals in the region consumed during the study period. In that general framework, the objective of the Food Consumption Task was to develop a capability to provide information about the parameters of the distribution(s) of daily food consumption for representative groups in the population for selected years during the study period. This report describes the methods and data used to estimate food consumption and presents the results developed for Phase I of the HEDR Project.

  9. Chapter 3: FY 2005 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) estimates expected benefits for its overall portfolio and for each of its 11 programs. Benefits for the FY 2005 budget request are estimated for the midterm (2010-2025) and long term (2030-2050). Two separate models suited to these periods are employed—NEMS-GPRA05 for the midterm and MARKAL-GPRA05 for the long term.

  10. Chapter 3: FY 2006 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) estimates expected benefits for its overall portfolio and for each of its 11 programs. Benefits for the FY 2006 budget request are estimated for the midterm (2010-2025) and long term (2030-2050). Two separate models suited to these periods are employed–NEMS-GPRA06 for the midterm and MARKAL-GPRA06 for the long term.

  11. State Energy Data Report, 1991: Consumption estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to the Government, policy makers, and the public; and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models.

  12. State energy data report 1993: Consumption estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-07-01

    The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public; and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models.

  13. State energy data report 1995 - consumption estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-12-01

    The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sectors. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public, and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models.

  14. Local Harmonic Estimation in Musical Sound Rafael A. IRIZARRY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Irizarry, Rafael A.

    Local Harmonic Estimation in Musical Sound Signals Rafael A. IRIZARRY Statistical modeling so a local harmonic model that tracks changes in pitch and in the amplitudes of the harmonics is fit estimates of the harmonic signal and of the noise signal. Different musical composition applications may

  15. Ridge Regression Estimation for Survey Samples Mingue Park

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Min

    Ridge Regression Estimation for Survey Samples Mingue Park and Min Yang Korea University and University of Missouri Abstract A procedure for constructing a vector of regression weights is considered. Under the re- gression superpopulation model, the ridge regression estimator that has minimum model mean

  16. Thermodynamic estimation: Ionic materials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Glasser, Leslie, E-mail: l.glasser@curtin.edu.au

    2013-10-15

    Thermodynamics establishes equilibrium relations among thermodynamic parameters (“properties”) and delineates the effects of variation of the thermodynamic functions (typically temperature and pressure) on those parameters. However, classical thermodynamics does not provide values for the necessary thermodynamic properties, which must be established by extra-thermodynamic means such as experiment, theoretical calculation, or empirical estimation. While many values may be found in the numerous collected tables in the literature, these are necessarily incomplete because either the experimental measurements have not been made or the materials may be hypothetical. The current paper presents a number of simple and relible estimation methods for thermodynamic properties, principally for ionic materials. The results may also be used as a check for obvious errors in published values. The estimation methods described are typically based on addition of properties of individual ions, or sums of properties of neutral ion groups (such as “double” salts, in the Simple Salt Approximation), or based upon correlations such as with formula unit volumes (Volume-Based Thermodynamics). - Graphical abstract: Thermodynamic properties of ionic materials may be readily estimated by summation of the properties of individual ions, by summation of the properties of ‘double salts’, and by correlation with formula volume. Such estimates may fill gaps in the literature, and may also be used as checks of published values. This simplicity arises from exploitation of the fact that repulsive energy terms are of short range and very similar across materials, while coulombic interactions provide a very large component of the attractive energy in ionic systems. Display Omitted - Highlights: • Estimation methods for thermodynamic properties of ionic materials are introduced. • Methods are based on summation of single ions, multiple salts, and correlations. • Heat capacity, entropy, lattice energy, enthalpy, Gibbs energy values are available.

  17. Estimation of atmospheric deposition velocities and fluxes from weather and ambient pollutant concentration conditions. Part 1: Application of a multi-layer dry deposition model to measurements at a north central Florida site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Park, J.K. [Inje Univ., Kimhae (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Environmental Sciences; Allen, E.R. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Dept. of Environmental Engineering Sciences

    1997-12-31

    The harmful effects of dry acid deposition on terrestrial ecosystems could be as significant as those from wet acid deposition. Dry deposition involves removal of air pollutants to surfaces by sedimentation, impaction, interception and diffusion. Dry deposition velocities and fluxes of air pollutants, such as SO{sub 2}(g), O{sub 3}(g), HNO{sub 3}(g), submicron particulates, NO{sub 3}{sup {minus}}(s), and SO{sub 4}{sup 2{minus}}(s), have been estimated according to local meteorological elements in the boundary layer. The model that was used for these calculations is the multiple layer resistance model developed by Hicks. It consists of multiple layered resistances including an aerodynamic resistance, a boundary layer resistance, and a surface resistance. Meteorological data were recorded on an hourly basis from July, 1990 to June, 1991 at the Austin Cary forest site, near Gainesville FL. Weekly integrated samples of ambient dry deposition species were collected at the site using triple filter packs and chemically analyzed. For the study period at this site annual average dry deposition velocities were estimated to be : 0.87--0.07 [cm/s] for SO{sub 2}(g), 0.65--0.11 [cm/s] for O{sub 3}(g), 1.20--0.14 [cm/s] for HNO{sub 3}(g), 0.0045--0.0006 [cm/s] for submicron particulates, and 0.089--0.014 [cm/s] for NO{sub 3}{sup {minus}}(s) and SO{sub 4}{sup 2{minus}}(s). Trends observed in daily mean deposition velocities are largely seasonal, indicated by larger deposition velocities for the summer season and smaller deposition velocities for the winter season. Note that the summer season at this southern US site extends from April through October (7 months) and the winter season extends from December through February. Monthly and weekly averaged values for deposition velocities do not show large differences over the year but do show a tendency for increased deposition velocities in summer and decreased values in winter.

  18. Structured estimation for the nonparametric Cox model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bradic, J; Song, R

    2015-01-01

    2007), Sparsity oracle inequalities for the Lasso, Electron.Q. (2012), Hoefding’s inequality for super- martingales,Lemler, S. (2012), Oracle inequalities for the Lasso for the

  19. Estimating transition times for a model of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mitchener, W. Garrett

    = mean usage rate of G2 dm dt = birth q(m) - death m 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Mean at a rate k K Simplify K = 1: Each agent uses G1 (state 0) or G2 (state 1) @ Ck = number youth in state kD = death rate: each time step each adult dies with prob- ability pD = rD N , replaced by sampling from

  20. Probabilistic models for mobile phone trajectory estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thiagarajan, Arvind

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation is concerned with the problem of determining the track or trajectory of a mobile device - for example, a sequence of road segments on an outdoor map, or a sequence of rooms visited inside a building - in ...

  1. Estimating the bias of a noisy coin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Christopher Ferrie; Robin Blume-Kohout

    2012-01-06

    Optimal estimation of a coin's bias using noisy data is surprisingly different from the same problem with noiseless data. We study this problem using entropy risk to quantify estimators' accuracy. We generalize the "add Beta" estimators that work well for noiseless coins, and we find that these hedged maximum-likelihood (HML) estimators achieve a worst-case risk of O(N^{-1/2}) on noisy coins, in contrast to O(1/N) in the noiseless case. We demonstrate that this increased risk is unavoidable and intrinsic to noisy coins, by constructing minimax estimators (numerically). However, minimax estimators introduce extreme bias in return for slight improvements in the worst-case risk. So we introduce a pointwise lower bound on the minimum achievable risk as an alternative to the minimax criterion, and use this bound to show that HML estimators are pretty good. We conclude with a survey of scientific applications of the noisy coin model in social science, physical science, and quantum information science.

  2. Building unbiased estimators from non-Gaussian likelihoods with application to shear estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Madhavacheril, Mathew S.; Sehgal, Neelima; McDonald, Patrick; Slosar, Anže E-mail: pvmcdonald@lbl.gov E-mail: anze@bnl.gov

    2015-01-01

    We develop a general framework for generating estimators of a given quantity which are unbiased to a given order in the difference between the true value of the underlying quantity and the fiducial position in theory space around which we expand the likelihood. We apply this formalism to rederive the optimal quadratic estimator and show how the replacement of the second derivative matrix with the Fisher matrix is a generic way of creating an unbiased estimator (assuming choice of the fiducial model is independent of data). Next we apply the approach to estimation of shear lensing, closely following the work of Bernstein and Armstrong (2014). Our first order estimator reduces to their estimator in the limit of zero shear, but it also naturally allows for the case of non-constant shear and the easy calculation of correlation functions or power spectra using standard methods. Both our first-order estimator and Bernstein and Armstrong's estimator exhibit a bias which is quadratic in true shear. Our third-order estimator is, at least in the realm of the toy problem of Bernstein and Armstrong, unbiased to 0.1% in relative shear errors ?g/g for shears up to |g|=0.2.

  3. Building unbiased estimators from non-gaussian likelihoods with application to shear estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Madhavacheril, Mathew S.; Slosar, Anze; McDonald, Patrick; Sehgal, Neelima

    2015-01-01

    We develop a general framework for generating estimators of a given quantity which are unbiased to a given order in the difference between the true value of the underlying quantity and the fiducial position in theory space around which we expand the likelihood. We apply this formalism to rederive the optimal quadratic estimator and show how the replacement of the second derivative matrix with the Fisher matrix is a generic way of creating an unbiased estimator (assuming choice of the fiducial model is independent of data). Next we apply the approach to estimation of shear lensing, closely following the work of Bernstein and Armstrong (2014). Our first order estimator reduces to their estimator in the limit of zero shear, but it also naturally allows for the case of non-constant shear and the easy calculation of correlation functions or power spectra using standard methods. Both our first-order estimator and Bernstein and Armstrong’s estimator exhibit a bias which is quadratic in true shear. Our third-order estimator is, at least in the realm of the toy problem of Bernstein and Armstrong, unbiased to 0.1% in relative shear errors ?g/g for shears up to |g| = 0.2.

  4. Building unbiased estimators from non-gaussian likelihoods with application to shear estimation

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Madhavacheril, Mathew S.; McDonald, Patrick; Sehgal, Neelima; Slosar, Anze

    2015-01-15

    We develop a general framework for generating estimators of a given quantity which are unbiased to a given order in the difference between the true value of the underlying quantity and the fiducial position in theory space around which we expand the likelihood. We apply this formalism to rederive the optimal quadratic estimator and show how the replacement of the second derivative matrix with the Fisher matrix is a generic way of creating an unbiased estimator (assuming choice of the fiducial model is independent of data). Next we apply the approach to estimation of shear lensing, closely following the workmore »of Bernstein and Armstrong (2014). Our first order estimator reduces to their estimator in the limit of zero shear, but it also naturally allows for the case of non-constant shear and the easy calculation of correlation functions or power spectra using standard methods. Both our first-order estimator and Bernstein and Armstrong’s estimator exhibit a bias which is quadratic in true shear. Our third-order estimator is, at least in the realm of the toy problem of Bernstein and Armstrong, unbiased to 0.1% in relative shear errors ?g/g for shears up to |g| = 0.2.« less

  5. Lensed CMB simulation and parameter estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Antony Lewis

    2010-11-16

    Modelling of the weak lensing of the CMB will be crucial to obtain correct cosmological parameter constraints from forthcoming precision CMB anisotropy observations. The lensing affects the power spectrum as well as inducing non-Gaussianities. We discuss the simulation of full sky CMB maps in the weak lensing approximation and describe a fast numerical code. The series expansion in the deflection angle cannot be used to simulate accurate CMB maps, so a pixel remapping must be used. For parameter estimation accounting for the change in the power spectrum but assuming Gaussianity is sufficient to obtain accurate results up to Planck sensitivity using current tools. A fuller analysis may be required to obtain accurate error estimates and for more sensitive observations. We demonstrate a simple full sky simulation and subsequent parameter estimation at Planck-like sensitivity. The lensed CMB simulation and parameter estimation codes are publicly available.

  6. MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION S-ESTIMATORS FOR ROBUST ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Van Aelst, Stefan

    1 MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION S-ESTIMATORS FOR ROBUST ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE Stefan Van Aelst-estimators for multivariate regression. We study the robustness of the estimators in terms of their breakdown point and in and multivariate location and scatter. Furthermore we develop a fast and robust bootstrap method

  7. Unbiased Robust Template Estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reuter, Martin

    Unbiased Robust Template Estimation for Longitudinal Analysis in FreeSurfer Compared with cross-sectional may have a profound clinical impact. The current methods that utilize cross-sectional approaches, R. & Maguire, P. & Rosas, D. & Makris, N. & Dale, A. & Dickerson, B. & Fischl, B. (2006

  8. Use of Cost Estimating Relationships

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) are an important tool in an estimator's kit, and in many cases, they are the only tool. Thus, it is important to understand their limitations and characteristics. This chapter discusses considerations of which the estimator must be aware so the Cost Estimating Relationships can be properly used.

  9. Estimated recharge rates at the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fayer, M.J.; Walters, T.B.

    1995-02-01

    The Ground-Water Surveillance Project monitors the distribution of contaminants in ground water at the Hanford Site for the U.S. Department of Energy. A subtask called {open_quotes}Water Budget at Hanford{close_quotes} was initiated in FY 1994. The objective of this subtask was to produce a defensible map of estimated recharge rates across the Hanford Site. Methods that have been used to estimate recharge rates at the Hanford Site include measurements (of drainage, water contents, and tracers) and computer modeling. For the simulations of 12 soil-vegetation combinations, the annual rates varied from 0.05 mm/yr for the Ephrata sandy loam with bunchgrass to 85.2 mm/yr for the same soil without vegetation. Water content data from the Grass Site in the 300 Area indicated that annual rates varied from 3.0 to 143.5 mm/yr during an 8-year period. The annual volume of estimated recharge was calculated to be 8.47 {times} 10{sup 9} L for the potential future Hanford Site (i.e., the portion of the current Site bounded by Highway 240 and the Columbia River). This total volume is similar to earlier estimates of natural recharge and is 2 to 10x higher than estimates of runoff and ground-water flow from higher elevations. Not only is the volume of natural recharge significant in comparison to other ground-water inputs, the distribution of estimated recharge is highly skewed to the disturbed sandy soils (i.e., the 200 Areas, where most contaminants originate). The lack of good estimates of the means and variances of the supporting data (i.e., the soil map, the vegetation/land use map, the model parameters) translates into large uncertainties in the recharge estimates. When combined, the significant quantity of estimated recharge, its high sensitivity to disturbance, and the unquantified uncertainty of the data and model parameters suggest that the defensibility of the recharge estimates should be improved.

  10. Filtering and parameter estimation for electricity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fournier, John J.F.

    Filtering and parameter estimation for electricity markets by Alberto Molina-Escobar B to be particularly difficult for electricity, where markets are complex, and ex- hibit a number of unique features, mainly due to the problems involved in storing electricity. In this thesis we propose three models

  11. County Level Wind Erosion Estimation Using National

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , Fuller (1987), Rao (2003). 11 #12;Model searching for Wind Erosion In NRI, wind erosion WEQCounty Level Wind Erosion Estimation Using National Resources Inventory Survey Taps Maiti. · Approx. 3 points/PSU; 800,000 points in 1997 NRI 4 #12;· Data on Urban land, small water etc

  12. Essays on Estimation of Inflation Equation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Woong

    2009-05-15

    . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 1. Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2. Numerical Analysis for the Theoretical Relationship . 13 3. Numerical Analysis for the Empirical Issues . . . . . . 25 C. Alternative Kurtosis... 3. Detection of Outliers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 C. Empirical Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 D. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 IV ESTIMATION OF HYBRID PHILLIPS CURVE...

  13. Magnetic nanoparticle temperature estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weaver, John B.; Rauwerdink, Adam M.; Hansen, Eric W.

    2009-05-15

    The authors present a method of measuring the temperature of magnetic nanoparticles that can be adapted to provide in vivo temperature maps. Many of the minimally invasive therapies that promise to reduce health care costs and improve patient outcomes heat tissue to very specific temperatures to be effective. Measurements are required because physiological cooling, primarily blood flow, makes the temperature difficult to predict a priori. The ratio of the fifth and third harmonics of the magnetization generated by magnetic nanoparticles in a sinusoidal field is used to generate a calibration curve and to subsequently estimate the temperature. The calibration curve is obtained by varying the amplitude of the sinusoidal field. The temperature can then be estimated from any subsequent measurement of the ratio. The accuracy was 0.3 deg. K between 20 and 50 deg. C using the current apparatus and half-second measurements. The method is independent of nanoparticle concentration and nanoparticle size distribution.

  14. A Model to Estimate the Risk of Breast Cancer-Related Lymphedema: Combinations of Treatment-Related Factors of the Number of Dissected Axillary Nodes, Adjuvant Chemotherapy, and Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Myungsoo; Kim, Seok Won; Lee, Sung Uk; Lee, Nam Kwon; Jung, So-Youn; Kim, Tae Hyun; Lee, Eun Sook; Kang, Han-Sung; Shin, Kyung Hwan

    2013-07-01

    Purpose: The development of breast cancer-related lymphedema (LE) is closely related to the number of dissected axillary lymph nodes (N-ALNs), chemotherapy, and radiation therapy. In this study, we attempted to estimate the risk of LE based on combinations of these treatment-related factors. Methods and Materials: A total of 772 patients with breast cancer, who underwent primary surgery with axillary lymph node dissection from 2004 to 2009, were retrospectively analyzed. Adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) was performed in 677 patients (88%). Among patients who received radiation therapy (n=675), 274 (35%) received supraclavicular radiation therapy (SCRT). Results: At a median follow-up of 5.1 years (range, 3.0-8.3 years), 127 patients had developed LE. The overall 5-year cumulative incidence of LE was 17%. Among the 127 affected patients, LE occurred within 2 years after surgery in 97 (76%) and within 3 years in 115 (91%) patients. Multivariate analysis showed that N-ALN (hazard ratio [HR], 2.81; P<.001), ACT (HR, 4.14; P=.048), and SCRT (HR, 3.24; P<.001) were independent risk factors for LE. The total number of risk factors correlated well with the incidence of LE. Patients with no risk or 1 risk factor showed a significantly lower 5-year probability of LE (3%) than patients with 2 (19%) or 3 risk factors (38%) (P<.001). Conclusions: The risk factors associated with LE were N-ALN, ACT, and SCRT. A simple model using combinations of these factors may help clinicians predict the risk of LE.

  15. Using Photogrammetry to Estimate Tank Waste Volumes from Video

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Field, Jim G. [Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC, Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-03-27

    Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) contracted with HiLine Engineering & Fabrication, Inc. to assess the accuracy of photogrammetry tools as compared to video Camera/CAD Modeling System (CCMS) estimates. This test report documents the results of using photogrammetry to estimate the volume of waste in tank 241-C-I04 from post-retrieval videos and results using photogrammetry to estimate the volume of waste piles in the CCMS test video.

  16. A general probabilistic framework for volumetric articulated body pose estimation and driver gesture, activity and intent analysis for human-centric driver assistance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cheng, Shinko Yuanhsien

    2007-01-01

    Driver body-pose analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Body Pose Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Mixture Model . . 4. Learning Pose using EM . . . . . .

  17. Measurement enhancement for state estimation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Jian

    2009-05-15

    to accurately monitor the system operating state. State estimation is an essential tool in an energy management system (EMS). It is responsible for providing an accurate and correct estimate for the system operating state based on the available measurements...

  18. Hydrocarbon Reservoir Parameter Estimation Using

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Vliet, Lucas J.

    Hydrocarbon Reservoir Parameter Estimation Using Production Data and Time-Lapse Seismic #12;#12;Hydrocarbon Reservoir Parameter Estimation Using Production Data and Time-Lapse Seismic PROEFSCHRIFT ter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.2 Recovery process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.3 Field

  19. Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) Development...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Model (GETEM) Development Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) Development Project objective: Provide a tool for estimating the performance and...

  20. State energy data report 1996: Consumption estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1999-02-01

    The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sectors. The estimates are developed in the Combined State Energy Data System (CSEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining CSEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. CSEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models. To the degree possible, energy consumption has been assigned to five sectors: residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility sectors. Fuels covered are coal, natural gas, petroleum, nuclear electric power, hydroelectric power, biomass, and other, defined as electric power generated from geothermal, wind, photovoltaic, and solar thermal energy. 322 tabs.

  1. Conditional Regression Forests for Human Pose Estimation Pushmeet Kohli

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kohli, Pushmeet

    Conditional Regression Forests for Human Pose Estimation Min Sun Pushmeet Kohli Jamie Shotton estimation from depth images. The conditional regression model proposed in the paper is general and can body joint prediction as a regression problem which avoids intermediate body part classification

  2. EPA 402-R-93-076 ESTIMATING RADIOGENIC CANCER RISKS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    comparing health risk estimates due to low level exposures of low-LET radiation based on models recently This document presents a revised methodology for EPA's estimation of cancer risks due to low-LET radiation. With the exception of breast cancer, low-LET radiogenic cancer risks are assumed to be reduced by a dose and dose

  3. DAMAGE ESTIMATION USING MULTI-OBJECTIVE GENETIC ALGORITHMS Faisal Shabbir

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    DAMAGE ESTIMATION USING MULTI-OBJECTIVE GENETIC ALGORITHMS Faisal Shabbir 1 , Piotr Omenzetter 2 1.omenzetter@abdn.ac.uk ABSTRACT It is common to estimate structural damage severity by updating a structural model against experimental responses at different damage states. When experimental results from the healthy and damaged

  4. Parameter Estimation for the Heat Equation on Perforated Domains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parameter Estimation for the Heat Equation on Perforated Domains H.T. Banks1 , D. Cioranescu2 , A for simulated data for heat flow in a porous medium. We consider data simulated from a model on a perforated Words: Inverse problems, parameter estimation, perforated domains, homogeniza- tion, thermal diffusion

  5. Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms David Rutledge

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Low, Steven H.

    Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms David Rutledge form 27 October 2010 Accepted 27 October 2010 Available online 4 November 2010 Keywords: Coal reserves Coal resources Coal production estimates IPCC Logistic model Cumulative normal model An estimate

  6. Identification and Estimation of a Discrete Game of Complete Information

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bajari, Patrick

    We discuss the identification and estimation of discrete games of complete information. Following Bresnahan and Reiss (1990, 1991), a discrete game is a generalization of a standard discrete choice model where utility ...

  7. Estimation of dibaryon (OO) yields at RHIC energies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhong-Dao Lu

    2002-07-02

    The yields of dibaryon (Omega-Omega) in relativistic heavy ion collisions, especially at RHIC energies, are estimated by statistical model. The yields of hyperon Omega- and the ratio of dibaryon to Omega are also given.

  8. A reconciled estimate of ice-sheet mass balance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2012-01-01

    Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Andrew Shepherd, 1 * Erikand models of surface mass balance and glacial isostaticThis Ice Sheet Mass Balance Exercise (IMBIE) was facilitated

  9. Genetic algorithm and M-estimator based robust sequential estimation of parameters of nonlinear sinusoidal signals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kundu, Debasis

    ­11]), in biomedical signal processing ([12,13]), modeling of biological systems ([14,15]), radio location of distant problem in digital signal processing. In this paper, we consider the problem of estimation of parameters are present in a variety of signal processing applications and time series data analysis. The review work

  10. Essays on Semiparametric Ridge-Type Shrinkage Estimation, Model Averaging and Nonparametric Panel Data Model Estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Huansha

    2014-01-01

    Financial Studies 21: 17. Caner, M. (2009) A Lasso type GMMTheory 25: 270-290. 18. Caner, M. and Fan, M. A near minimaxthe parametric case see Caner (2009), Caner and Fan (2011),

  11. IDC RP2 & 3 US Industry Standard Cost Estimate Summary.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harris, James M.; Huelskamp, Robert M.

    2015-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, using a commercial software cost estimation tool calibrated to US industry performance parameters. This is not a cost estimate for Sandia to perform the project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

  12. Robust and intelligent bearing estimation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Claassen, John P. (Albuquerque, NM)

    2000-01-01

    A method of bearing estimation comprising quadrature digital filtering of event observations, constructing a plurality of observation matrices each centered on a time-frequency interval, determining for each observation matrix a parameter such as degree of polarization, linearity of particle motion, degree of dyadicy, or signal-to-noise ratio, choosing observation matrices most likely to produce a set of best available bearing estimates, and estimating a bearing for each observation matrix of the chosen set.

  13. An intelligent floor field cellular automata model for pedestrian dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ekaterina Kirik; Tat'yana Yurgel'yan; Dmitriy Krouglov

    2009-06-15

    A stochastic cellular automata (CA) model for pedestrian dynamics is presented. Our goal is to simulate different types of pedestrian movement, from regular to panic. But here we emphasize regular situations which imply that pedestrians analyze environment and choose their route more carefully. And transition probabilities have to depict such effect. The potentials of floor fields and environment analysis are combined in the model obtained. People patience is included in the model. This makes simulation of pedestrians movement more realistic. Some simulation results are presented and comparison with basic FF-model is made.

  14. State and national household concentrations of PM2.5 from solid cookfuel use: Results from measurements and modeling in India for estimation of the global burden of disease

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2013-01-01

    model in southern states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu for non-JHARKHAND (19) KARNATAKA (26) KERALA (28) MADHYA PRADESH (

  15. An Experiment to Improve Cost Estimation and Project Tracking for Software and Systems Integration Projects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Henderson, Peter

    scales of many projects today. ICL has undertaken an experiment using an alternative life cycle model-diagram waterfall life cycle model to plan and control the development of platform software and systems. Estimates the estimates. A number of alternative life cycle models and development methods, [3] and [13] are examples

  16. Examples of Cost Estimation Packages

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    Estimates can be performed in a variety of ways. Some of these are for projects for an undefined scope, a conventional construction project, or where there is a level of effort required to complete the work. Examples of cost estimation packages for these types of projects are described in this appendix.

  17. Vortex-Based Aero- and Hydrodynamic Estimation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hemati, Maziar Sam

    2013-01-01

    Vortex-Based Aero- and Hydrodynamic Estimation . . . . . .2 Aero- andbenefit from vortex-based aero- and hydrodynamic estimation.

  18. Bayesian parameter estimation for effective field theories

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wesolowski, S; Furnstahl, R J; Phillips, D R; Thapaliya, A

    2015-01-01

    We present procedures based on Bayesian statistics for effective field theory (EFT) parameter estimation from data. The extraction of low-energy constants (LECs) is guided by theoretical expectations that supplement such information in a quantifiable way through the specification of Bayesian priors. A prior for natural-sized LECs reduces the possibility of overfitting, and leads to a consistent accounting of different sources of uncertainty. A set of diagnostic tools are developed that analyze the fit and ensure that the priors do not bias the EFT parameter estimation. The procedures are illustrated using representative model problems and the extraction of LECs for the nucleon mass expansion in SU(2) chiral perturbation theory from synthetic lattice data.

  19. ESTIMATION AND CONTROL OF INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES WITH PARTICLE FILTERS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Freitas, Nando

    ESTIMATION AND CONTROL OF INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES WITH PARTICLE FILTERS Rub´en Morales of industrial processes. In particular, we adopt a jump Markov linear Gaussian (JMLG) model to describe an industrial heat exchanger. The parameters of this model are identi- fied with the expectation maximisation

  20. VISION Model: Description

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2009-01-18

    Description of VISION model, which is used to estimate the impact of highway vehicle technologies and fuels on energy use and carbon emissions to 2050.

  1. How to Estimate the Value of Service Reliability Improvements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sullivan, Michael J.; Mercurio, Matthew G.; Schellenberg, Josh A.; Eto, Joseph H.

    2010-06-08

    A robust methodology for estimating the value of service reliability improvements is presented. Although econometric models for estimating value of service (interruption costs) have been established and widely accepted, analysts often resort to applying relatively crude interruption cost estimation techniques in assessing the economic impacts of transmission and distribution investments. This paper first shows how the use of these techniques can substantially impact the estimated value of service improvements. A simple yet robust methodology that does not rely heavily on simplifying assumptions is presented. When a smart grid investment is proposed, reliability improvement is one of the most frequently cited benefits. Using the best methodology for estimating the value of this benefit is imperative. By providing directions on how to implement this methodology, this paper sends a practical, usable message to the industry.

  2. Nondestructive estimates of above-ground biomass using terrestrial laser scanning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jones, Peter JS

    , The Netherlands; 2 CSIRO Land and Water, Private Bag 10, Clayton South, Vic. 3169, Australia; 3 Department these estimates against destructively harvested AGB estimates and AGB derived from allometric equations. We also. Single trees are extracted from the TLS data and quantitative structure models are used to estimate

  3. Assessing the Reliability of a Human Estimator Gary D. Boetticher, Nazim Lokhandwala

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boetticher, Gary D.

    than humans make [2]. Algorithmic-based estimation approaches are based on human subjectivity. The post-architecture from estimating models to current projects and organization environments in order to achieveAssessing the Reliability of a Human Estimator Gary D. Boetticher, Nazim Lokhandwala University

  4. Biosensor Arrays for Estimating Molecular Concentration in Fluid Flows

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abolfath-Beygi, Maryam

    2011-01-01

    This paper constructs dynamical models and estimation algorithms for the concentration of target molecules in a fluid flow using an array of novel biosensors. Each biosensor is constructed out of protein molecules embedded in a synthetic cell membrane. The concentration evolves according to an advection-diffusion partial differential equation which is coupled with chemical reaction equations on the biosensor surface. By using averaging theory methods and the divergence theorem, an approximate model is constructed that describes the asymptotic behaviour of the concentration as a system of ordinary differential equations. The estimate of target molecules is then obtained by solving a nonlinear least squares problem. It is shown that the estimator is strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. An explicit expression is obtained for the asymptotic variance of the estimation error. As an example, the results are illustrated for a novel biosensor built out of protein molecules.

  5. Pose Estimation via Gauss-Newton-on-manifold Pei Yean Lee and John B. Moore

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Moore, John Barratt

    on the smooth manifold of rotation matrices, namely the special orthogonal matrices SO3, depicted as the surface of a cone in Fig. 1. Also, in Fig. 1, the feasible domain is depicted as the intersection SO3 K. The cost

  6. Surface daytime net radiation estimation using artificial neural networks

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Jiang, Bo; Zhang, Yi; Liang, Shunlin; Zhang, Xiaotong; Xiao, Zhiqiang

    2014-11-11

    Net all-wave surface radiation (Rn) is one of the most important fundamental parameters in various applications. However, conventional Rn measurements are difficult to collect because of the high cost and ongoing maintenance of recording instruments. Therefore, various empirical Rn estimation models have been developed. This study presents the results of two artificial neural network (ANN) models (general regression neural networks (GRNN) and Neuroet) to estimate Rn globally from multi-source data, including remotely sensed products, surface measurements, and meteorological reanalysis products. Rn estimates provided by the two ANNs were tested against in-situ radiation measurements obtained from 251 global sites between 1991–2010more »both in global mode (all data were used to fit the models) and in conditional mode (the data were divided into four subsets and the models were fitted separately). Based on the results obtained from extensive experiments, it has been proved that the two ANNs were superior to linear-based empirical models in both global and conditional modes and that the GRNN performed better and was more stable than Neuroet. The GRNN estimates had a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.92, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 34.27 W·m–2 , and a bias of –0.61 W·m–2 in global mode based on the validation dataset. In conclusion, ANN methods are a potentially powerful tool for global Rn estimation.« less

  7. Motion Estimation from Disparity Images

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Demirdjian, D.

    2001-05-07

    A new method for 3D rigid motion estimation from stereo is proposed in this paper. The appealing feature of this method is that it directly uses the disparity images obtained from stereo matching. We assume that the stereo ...

  8. Estimation of resources and reserves

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Energy Laboratory.

    1982-01-01

    This report analyzes the economics of resource and reserve estimation. Current concern about energy problems has focused attention on how we measure available energy resources. One reads that we have an eight-year oil ...

  9. Risk Estimation Methodology for Launch Accidents.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

    2014-02-01

    As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlo simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.

  10. Estimating demolition cost of plutonium buildings for dummies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tower, S.E.

    2000-07-01

    The primary purpose of the Rocky Flats Field Office of the US Department of Energy is to decommission the entire plant. In an effort to improve the basis and the accuracy of the future decommissioning cost, Rocky Flats has developed a powerful but easy-to-use tool to determine budget cost estimates to characterize, decontaminate, and demolish all its buildings. The parametric cost-estimating tool is called the Facilities Disposition Cost Model (FDCM).

  11. Using percolation techniques to estimate interwell connectivity probability 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Weiqiang

    2009-06-02

    results for fluid travel time between locations in a percolation model, we developed a method to estimate interwell connectivity. Three parameters are needed to use this approach: the sandbody occupied probability sand p , the dimensionless reservoir... and can estimate the interwell connectivity accurately for thin intervals with sand p in the 60% to 80% range. The proposed method requires that the reservoir interval for evaluation be sufficiently thin so that 2D percolation results can...

  12. Data Needs for Evolving Motor Vehicle Emission Modeling Approaches

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guensler, Randall

    1993-01-01

    Agency; Highway Vehicle Emission Estimates; Office offor Evolving Motor Vehicle Emission Modeling Approachesfor Evolving Motor Vehicle Emission Modeling Approaches

  13. Method and system to estimate variables in an integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kumar, Aditya; Shi, Ruijie; Dokucu, Mustafa

    2013-09-17

    System and method to estimate variables in an integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant are provided. The system includes a sensor suite to measure respective plant input and output variables. An extended Kalman filter (EKF) receives sensed plant input variables and includes a dynamic model to generate a plurality of plant state estimates and a covariance matrix for the state estimates. A preemptive-constraining processor is configured to preemptively constrain the state estimates and covariance matrix to be free of constraint violations. A measurement-correction processor may be configured to correct constrained state estimates and a constrained covariance matrix based on processing of sensed plant output variables. The measurement-correction processor is coupled to update the dynamic model with corrected state estimates and a corrected covariance matrix. The updated dynamic model may be configured to estimate values for at least one plant variable not originally sensed by the sensor suite.

  14. Estimating Migration Resistance: a Case Study of Greenlandic Arctic Terns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hensz, Christopher

    2013-01-15

    Chris Hensz University of Kansas Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Biodiversity Institute Estimating Migration Resistance: a Case Study of Greenlandic Arctic Terns The Problem 1: How do migratory animals choose... d ay °C m /s Models ? Implemented in R ? Models: ? Linear exploration Southern Migration, 9 birds, n=929 Northern Migration, 9 birds, n=629 Future Directions 1: Finish non-linear model 2: Generalize procedure and include...

  15. arXiv:0907.0199v1[stat.AP]1Jul2009 High-Dimensional Density Estimation via SCA: An Example in the Modelling of Hurricane Tracks6

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Ann B..

    in the Modelling of Hurricane Tracks6 Susan M. Buchman, Ann B. Lee1 , Chad M. Schafer Department of Statistics variability of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic; each datum in this case is an entire hurricane

  16. Extreme wave height estimation for ocean engineering applications in the Gulf of Mexico 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jeong, Chan Kwon

    2012-07-16

    updated estimates of the 100-year extreme wave conditions for the entire Gulf of Mexico using a more comprehensive approach. First, the applicability of standard parametric wind models was examined and appropriate adjustments to the Rankine vortex model...

  17. New findings about the complementary relationship-based evaporation estimation methods

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Szilagyi, Jozsef

    KEYWORDS Complementary relationship; Advection­Aridity model; Areal evaporation; Potential evaporation; Apparent potential evaporation; Wet environment evaporation; Evapotranspiration Summary A novel approach of long- term mean evaporation (E) estimation of the Advection­Aridity (AA) model when vali- dated

  18. Weldon Spring historical dose estimate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meshkov, N.; Benioff, P.; Wang, J.; Yuan, Y.

    1986-07-01

    This study was conducted to determine the estimated radiation doses that individuals in five nearby population groups and the general population in the surrounding area may have received as a consequence of activities at a uranium processing plant in Weldon Spring, Missouri. The study is retrospective and encompasses plant operations (1957-1966), cleanup (1967-1969), and maintenance (1969-1982). The dose estimates for members of the nearby population groups are as follows. Of the three periods considered, the largest doses to the general population in the surrounding area would have occurred during the plant operations period (1957-1966). Dose estimates for the cleanup (1967-1969) and maintenance (1969-1982) periods are negligible in comparison. Based on the monitoring data, if there was a person residing continually in a dwelling 1.2 km (0.75 mi) north of the plant, this person is estimated to have received an average of about 96 mrem/yr (ranging from 50 to 160 mrem/yr) above background during plant operations, whereas the dose to a nearby resident during later years is estimated to have been about 0.4 mrem/yr during cleanup and about 0.2 mrem/yr during the maintenance period. These values may be compared with the background dose in Missouri of 120 mrem/yr.

  19. Introductory Notes on AgentIntroductory Notes on Agent--Based Modeling,Based Modeling, AgentAgent--Oriented Programming, & AMESOriented Programming, & AMES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    ,...) - Physical entities (weather, landscape, electric grids,...) #12;5 Partial depiction of agents

  20. Estimating Biomass in the Mountain Regions of Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda using Radar and Optical Remote Sensing 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fedrigo, Melissa

    2009-11-26

    Field measured estimates of aboveground biomass (AGB) for 15 transects in Bwindi Impenetrable National Park (BINP), Uganda were used to generate a number of prediction models for estimating aboveground biomass (AGB) over the full extent of BINP. AGB...

  1. Atmospheric Inverse Estimates of Methane Emissions from Central California

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhao, Chuanfeng; Andrews, Arlyn E.; Bianco, Laura; Eluszkiewicz, Janusz; Hirsch, Adam; MacDonald, Clinton; Nehrkorn, Thomas; Fischer, Marc L.

    2008-11-21

    Methane mixing ratios measured at a tall-tower are compared to model predictions to estimate surface emissions of CH{sub 4} in Central California for October-December 2007 using an inverse technique. Predicted CH{sub 4} mixing ratios are calculated based on spatially resolved a priori CH{sub 4} emissions and simulated atmospheric trajectories. The atmospheric trajectories, along with surface footprints, are computed using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) coupled to the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model. An uncertainty analysis is performed to provide quantitative uncertainties in estimated CH{sub 4} emissions. Three inverse model estimates of CH{sub 4} emissions are reported. First, linear regressions of modeled and measured CH{sub 4} mixing ratios obtain slopes of 0.73 {+-} 0.11 and 1.09 {+-} 0.14 using California specific and Edgar 3.2 emission maps respectively, suggesting that actual CH{sub 4} emissions were about 37 {+-} 21% higher than California specific inventory estimates. Second, a Bayesian 'source' analysis suggests that livestock emissions are 63 {+-} 22% higher than the a priori estimates. Third, a Bayesian 'region' analysis is carried out for CH{sub 4} emissions from 13 sub-regions, which shows that inventory CH{sub 4} emissions from the Central Valley are underestimated and uncertainties in CH{sub 4} emissions are reduced for sub-regions near the tower site, yielding best estimates of flux from those regions consistent with 'source' analysis results. The uncertainty reductions for regions near the tower indicate that a regional network of measurements will be necessary to provide accurate estimates of surface CH{sub 4} emissions for multiple regions.

  2. Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification: Independent Review Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification: Independent Review This independent review is the...

  3. An Improved Virial Estimate of Solar Active Region Energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. S. Wheatland; T. R. Metcalf

    2005-09-21

    The MHD virial theorem may be used to estimate the magnetic energy of active regions based on vector magnetic fields measured at the photosphere or chromosphere. However, the virial estimate depends on the measured vector magnetic field being force-free. Departure from force-freeness leads to an unknown systematic error in the virial energy estimate, and an origin dependence of the result. We present a method for estimating the systematic error by assuming that magnetic forces are confined to a thin layer near the photosphere. If vector magnetic field measurements are available at two levels in the low atmosphere (e.g. the photosphere and the chromosphere), the systematic error may be directly calculated using the observed horizontal and vertical field gradients, resulting in an energy estimate which is independent of the choice of origin. If (as is generally the case) measurements are available at only one level, the systematic error may be approximated using the observed horizontal field gradients together with a simple linear force-free model for the vertical field gradients. The resulting `improved' virial energy estimate is independent of the choice of origin, but depends on the choice of the model for the vertical field gradients, i.e. the value of the linear force-free parameter $\\alpha$. This procedure is demonstrated for five vector magnetograms, including a chromospheric magnetogram.

  4. Preliminary relative permeability estimates of methanehydrate-bearing sand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seol, Yongkoo; Kneafsey, Timothy J.; Tomutsa, Liviu; Moridis,George J.

    2006-05-08

    The relative permeability to fluids in hydrate-bearing sediments is an important parameter for predicting natural gas production from gas hydrate reservoirs. We estimated the relative permeability parameters (van Genuchten alpha and m) in a hydrate-bearing sand by means of inverse modeling, which involved matching water saturation predictions with observations from a controlled waterflood experiment. We used x-ray computed tomography (CT) scanning to determine both the porosity and the hydrate and aqueous phase saturation distributions in the samples. X-ray CT images showed that hydrate and aqueous phase saturations are non-uniform, and that water flow focuses in regions of lower hydrate saturation. The relative permeability parameters were estimated at two locations in each sample. Differences between the estimated parameter sets at the two locations were attributed to heterogeneity in the hydrate saturation. Better estimates of the relative permeability parameters require further refinement of the experimental design, and better description of heterogeneity in the numerical inversions.

  5. Preliminary relative permeability estimates of methanehydrate-bearing sand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seol, Yongkoo; Kneafsey, Timothy J.; Tomutsa, Liviu; Moridis,George J.

    2006-05-08

    The relative permeability to fluids in hydrate-bearingsediments is an important parameter for predicting natural gas productionfrom gas hydrate reservoirs. We estimated the relative permeabilityparameters (van Genuchten alpha and m) in a hydrate-bearing sand by meansof inverse modeling, which involved matching water saturation predictionswith observations from a controlled waterflood experiment. We used x-raycomputed tomography (CT) scanning to determine both the porosity and thehydrate and aqueous phase saturation distributions in the samples. X-rayCT images showed that hydrate and aqueous phase saturations arenon-uniform, and that water flow focuses in regions of lower hydratesaturation. The relative permeability parameters were estimated at twolocations in each sample. Differences between the estimated parametersets at the two locations were attributed to heterogeneity in the hydratesaturation. Better estimates of the relative permeability parametersrequire further refinement of the experimental design, and betterdescription of heterogeneity in the numerical inversions.

  6. Economic Model For a Return on Investment Analysis of United States Government High Performance Computing (HPC) Research and Development (R & D) Investment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Joseph, Earl C.; Conway, Steve; Dekate, Chirag

    2013-09-30

    This study investigated how high-performance computing (HPC) investments can improve economic success and increase scientific innovation. This research focused on the common good and provided uses for DOE, other government agencies, industry, and academia. The study created two unique economic models and an innovation index: 1 A macroeconomic model that depicts the way HPC investments result in economic advancements in the form of ROI in revenue (GDP), profits (and cost savings), and jobs. 2 A macroeconomic model that depicts the way HPC investments result in basic and applied innovations, looking at variations by sector, industry, country, and organization size. ? A new innovation index that provides a means of measuring and comparing innovation levels. Key findings of the pilot study include: IDC collected the required data across a broad set of organizations, with enough detail to create these models and the innovation index. The research also developed an expansive list of HPC success stories.

  7. Operating Costs Estimates Cost Indices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boisvert, Jeff

    cost projections · Chemical Engineering (CE) Plant Construction Cost Index ­ Base value = 100 in 1957.0 in 2Q 2001 · Engineering News Record (ENR) · Nelson Refinery (NR) Construction Cost Index Cost Indices available for estimation are based upon the past · These data must be updated using cost indexes . · Cost

  8. Strichartz Estimates Counterexample to Strichartz

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Hart F.

    for the Wave Equation on Compact Manifolds with Boundary Hart F. Smith Department of Mathematics University of Washington, Seattle Carolina Meeting on Harmonic Analysis and PDE Hart F. Smith Strichartz Estimates g L2(M) For manifolds without boundary: 1 p + n q = n 2 - 2 p + n - 1 q n - 1 2 Hart F. Smith

  9. TOWARDS ESTIMATING TOTAL ECONOMIC VALUE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bateman, Ian J.

    TOWARDS ESTIMATING TOTAL ECONOMIC VALUE OF FORESTS IN MEXICO by Neil Adger Katrina Brown Raffaello OF FORESTS IN MEXICO by Neil Adger Katrina Brown Raffaello Cervigni Dominic Moran Centre for Social and SEDESOL for their assistance whilst in Mexico, and David Pearce and Kerry Turner for comments on earlier

  10. Guidelines for Estimating Unmetered Landscapting Water Use

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2010-07-30

    Guidance to help Federal agencies estimate unmetered landscaping water use as required by Executive Order 13514

  11. Estimating uncertainty of streamflow simulation using Bayesian neural networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liang, Faming

    Estimating uncertainty of streamflow simulation using Bayesian neural networks Xuesong Zhang,1 neural networks (BNNs) are powerful tools for providing reliable hydrologic prediction and quantifying of the uncertainties related to parameters (neural network's weights) and model structures were applied for uncertainty

  12. Estimating Uncertainty of Streamflow Simulation using Bayesian Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Estimating Uncertainty of Streamflow Simulation using Bayesian Neural Networks Xuesong Zhang1-2607 Email: r-srinivasan@tamu.edu 1 #12;Abstract: Recent studies have shown that Bayesian Neural Networks of the uncertainties related to parameters (neural network's weights) and model structures were applied for uncertainty

  13. Retrieval of Melt Pond Coverage from MODIS using Optimal Estimation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dodd, Emma

    2011-11-24

    Melt pond coverage on sea ice is an important influence on sea ice albedo reduction during the summer and can also affect the monitoring of sea ice extent, sea ice models and sea ice forecasting. Techniques to estimate melt pond coverage from global...

  14. Estimating terrestrial uranium and thorium by antineutrino flux measurements

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mcdonough, William F.

    Estimating terrestrial uranium and thorium by antineutrino flux measurements Stephen T. Dye, and approved November 16, 2007 (received for review July 11, 2007) Uranium and thorium within the Earth produce of uranium and thorium concentrations in geological reservoirs relies largely on geochemi- cal model

  15. Estimating the Potential Impact of Renewable Energy on the Caribbean

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kammen, Daniel M.

    of the Energy Development in Island Nations-U.S. Virgin Islands (EDIN-USVI) project. Department of Interior renewable energy projects within the Caribbean region. We present a model scenario where together energy Estimating the Potential Impact of Renewable Energy on the Caribbean Job Sector Rebekah Shirley

  16. Statistical Methods for Estimating the Minimum Thickness Along a Pipeline

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the distributional assumption. Extreme value modeling provides a more robust method of estimation if a sufficient companies use pipelines to transfer oil, gas and other materials from one place to another. Manufactures a mixture of oil, gas, and water). Our results show that whether one fits a generalized extreme value

  17. Combining Multicomponent Seismic Attributes, New Rock Physics Models, and In Situ Data to Estimate Gas-Hydrate Concentrations in Deep-Water, Near-Seafloor Strata of the Gulf of Mexico

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bureau of Economic Geology

    2009-04-30

    The Bureau of Economic Geology was contracted to develop technologies that demonstrate the value of multicomponent seismic technology for evaluating deep-water hydrates across the Green Canyon area of the Gulf of Mexico. This report describes the methodologies that were developed to create compressional (P-P) and converted-shear (P-SV) images of near-seafloor geology from four-component ocean-bottom-cable (4C OBC) seismic data and the procedures used to integrate P-P and P-SV seismic attributes with borehole calibration data to estimate hydrate concentration across two study areas spanning 16 and 25 lease blocks (or 144 and 225 square miles), respectively. Approximately 200 km of two-dimensional 4C OBC profiles were processed and analyzed over the course of the 3-year project. The strategies we developed to image near-seafloor geology with 4C OBC data are unique, and the paper describing our methodology was peer-recognized with a Best Paper Award by the Society of Exploration Geophysicists in the first year of the project (2006). Among the valuable research findings demonstrated in this report, the demonstrated ability to image deep-water near-seafloor geology with sub-meter resolution using a standard-frequency (10-200 Hz) air gun array on the sea surface and 4C sensors on the seafloor has been the accomplishment that has received the most accolades from professional peers. Our study found that hydrate is pervasive across the two study areas that were analyzed but exists at low concentrations. Although our joint inversion technique showed that in some limited areas, and in some geologic units across those small areas, hydrates occupied up to 40-percent of the sediment pore space, we found that when hydrate was present, hydrate concentration tended to occupy only 10-percent to 20-percent of the pore volume. We also found that hydrate concentration tended to be greater near the base of the hydrate stability zone than it was within the central part of the stability zone.

  18. Complete System Power Estimation: A Trickle-Down Approach Based on Performance Events

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    John, Lizy Kurian

    knowledge, we are the first to create power models for the entire system based on processor performance of these models and existing on-chip performance event counters, it is possible to estimate system power subsystems, we identify six performance events for modeling the entire system power. The resultant models

  19. Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Part 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-12-18

    This report contains the following: Bibliography; Petroleum Market Model abstract; Data quality; Estimation methodologies (includes refinery investment recovery thresholds, gas plant models, chemical industry demand for methanol, estimation of refinery fixed costs, estimation of distribution costs, estimation of taxes gasoline specifications, estimation of gasoline market shares, estimation of low-sulfur diesel market shares, low-sulfur diesel specifications, estimation of regional conversion coefficients, estimation of SO{sub 2} allowance equations, unfinished oil imports methodology, product pipeline capacities and tariffs, cogeneration methodology, natural gas plant fuel consumption, and Alaskan crude oil exports); Matrix generator documentation; Historical data processing; and Biofuels supply submodule.

  20. Fast cosmological parameter estimation using neural networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    T. Auld; M. Bridges; M. P. Hobson; S. F. Gull

    2007-09-17

    We present a method for accelerating the calculation of CMB power spectra, matter power spectra and likelihood functions for use in cosmological parameter estimation. The algorithm, called CosmoNet, is based on training a multilayer perceptron neural network and shares all the advantages of the recently released Pico algorithm of Fendt & Wandelt, but has several additional benefits in terms of simplicity, computational speed, memory requirements and ease of training. We demonstrate the capabilities of CosmoNet by computing CMB power spectra over a box in the parameter space of flat \\Lambda CDM models containing the 3\\sigma WMAP1 confidence region. We also use CosmoNet to compute the WMAP3 likelihood for flat \\Lambda CDM models and show that marginalised posteriors on parameters derived are very similar to those obtained using CAMB and the WMAP3 code. We find that the average error in the power spectra is typically 2-3% of cosmic variance, and that CosmoNet is \\sim 7 \\times 10^4 faster than CAMB (for flat models) and \\sim 6 \\times 10^6 times faster than the official WMAP3 likelihood code. CosmoNet and an interface to CosmoMC are publically available at www.mrao.cam.ac.uk/software/cosmonet.