National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for depicting model estimates

  1. Innovative Use of Cr(VI) Plume Depictions and Pump-and-Treat Capture Analysis to Estimate Risks of Contaminant Discharge to Surface Water at Hanford Reactor Areas

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, Chuck W.; Hanson, James P.; Ivarson, Kristine A.; Tonkin, M.

    2015-01-14

    , are developed initially. Second, simulated capture frequency maps are developed, based on transport modelling results. Both interpolated and simulated capture frequency maps are based on operation of the systems over a full year. These two capture maps are then overlaid on the plume distribution maps for inspection of the relative orientation of the contaminant plumes with the capture frequency. To quantify the relative degree of protection of the river from discharges of Cr(VI) (and conversely, the degree of threat) at any particular location, a systematic method of evaluating and mapping the plume/capture relationship was developed. By comparing the spatial relationship between contaminant plumes and hydraulic capture frequency, an index of relative protectiveness is developed and the results posted on the combined plume/capture plan view map. Areas exhibiting lesser degrees of river protection are identified for remedial process optimization actions to control plumes and prevent continuing discharge of Cr(VI) to the river.

  2. Cost Model and Cost Estimating Software

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    This chapter discusses a formalized methodology is basically a cost model, which forms the basis for estimating software.

  3. Property:Depiction | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Subproperties This property has the following 1 subproperty: C California Independent System Operator Pages using the property "Depiction" Showing 25 pages using this property....

  4. Robust estimation procedure in panel data model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shariff, Nurul Sima Mohamad; Hamzah, Nor Aishah

    2014-06-19

    The panel data modeling has received a great attention in econometric research recently. This is due to the availability of data sources and the interest to study cross sections of individuals observed over time. However, the problems may arise in modeling the panel in the presence of cross sectional dependence and outliers. Even though there are few methods that take into consideration the presence of cross sectional dependence in the panel, the methods may provide inconsistent parameter estimates and inferences when outliers occur in the panel. As such, an alternative method that is robust to outliers and cross sectional dependence is introduced in this paper. The properties and construction of the confidence interval for the parameter estimates are also considered in this paper. The robustness of the procedure is investigated and comparisons are made to the existing method via simulation studies. Our results have shown that robust approach is able to produce an accurate and reliable parameter estimates under the condition considered.

  5. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK Statistical Summary...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK Statistical Summary (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK Statistical Summary (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1) ...

  6. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data - A new data product...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data - A new data product for climate modelers Citation Details In-Document Search Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data - A new data ...

  7. New DOE Modeling Tool Estimates Economic Benefits of Offshore...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Modeling Tool Estimates Economic Benefits of Offshore Wind Plants New DOE Modeling Tool ... of Energy (DOE) recently released a new version of the Jobs and Economic ...

  8. Chemical Hieroglyphs: Abstract Depiction of Complex Void Space...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Chemical Hieroglyphs: Abstract Depiction of Complex Void Space Topology of Nanoporous Materials Previous Next List Kevin Theisen, Berend Smit and Maciej Haranczyk, J. Chem. Inf. ...

  9. Estimation and modeling of coal pore accessibility using small...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Estimation and modeling of coal pore accessibility using small angle neutron scattering Authors: Zhang, Rui ; Liu, Shimin ; Bahadur, Jitendra ; Elsworth, Derek ; ...

  10. Retrofit Energy Savings Estimation Model | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Desktop Application Website: btech.lbl.govtoolsresemresem.htm Cost: Free Language: English References: Retrofit Energy Savings Estimation Model1 Logo: Retrofit...

  11. Battery Calendar Life Estimator Manual Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jon P. Christophersen; Ira Bloom; Ed Thomas; Vince Battaglia

    2012-10-01

    The Battery Life Estimator (BLE) Manual has been prepared to assist developers in their efforts to estimate the calendar life of advanced batteries for automotive applications. Testing requirements and procedures are defined by the various manuals previously published under the United States Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC). The purpose of this manual is to describe and standardize a method for estimating calendar life based on statistical models and degradation data acquired from typical USABC battery testing.

  12. Battery Life Estimator Manual Linear Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jon P. Christophersen; Ira Bloom; Ed Thomas; Vince Battaglia

    2009-08-01

    The Battery Life Estimator (BLE) Manual has been prepared to assist developers in their efforts to estimate the calendar life of advanced batteries for automotive applications. Testing requirements and procedures are defined by the various manuals previously published under the United States Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC). The purpose of this manual is to describe and standardize a method for estimating calendar life based on statistical models and degradation data acquired from typical USABC battery testing.

  13. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1) The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file ...

  14. ARM - PI Product - Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govDataPI Data ProductsClimate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) Comments? We would love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : Climate...

  15. ARM - Evaluation Product - Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsClimate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) Documentation Use the Data File Inventory tool to view data availability at the file level. Comments? We would love to hear from you...

  16. Estimating a model discrepancy term for the Community Land Model...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ... month - The final fitted polynomial model has 10% - 20% errors - not good enough * Regression kriging - Used quadratic as a meantrend model and stationary Gaussian Process model ...

  17. The Federal Highway Administration Gasohol Consumption Estimation Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, HL

    2003-08-28

    The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) is responsible for estimating the portion of Federal highway funds attributable to each State. The process involves use of State-reported data (gallons) and a set of estimation models when accurate State data is unavailable. To ensure that the distribution of funds is equitable, FHWA periodically reviews the estimation models. Estimation of the use of gasohol is difficult because of State differences in the definition of gasohol, inability of many States to separate and report gasohol usage from other fuel types, changes in fuel composition in nonattainment areas to address concerns over the use of certain fuel additives, and the lack of a valid State-level surrogate data set for gasohol use. Under the sponsorship of FHWA, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) reviewed the regression-based gasohol estimation model that has been in use for several years. Based on an analytical assessment of that model and an extensive review of potential data sets, ORNL developed an improved rule-based model. The new model uses data from Internal Revenue Service, Energy Information Administration, Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Energy, ORNL, and FHWA sources. The model basically consists of three parts: (1) development of a controlled total of national gasohol usage, (2) determination of reliable State gasohol consumption data, and (3) estimation of gasohol usage for all other States. The new model will be employed for the 2004 attribution process. FHWA is currently soliciting comments and inputs from interested parties. Relevant data, as identified, will be pursued and refinements will be made by the research team if warranted.

  18. Development on electromagnetic impedance function modeling and its estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sutarno, D.

    2015-09-30

    Today the Electromagnetic methods such as magnetotellurics (MT) and controlled sources audio MT (CSAMT) is used in a broad variety of applications. Its usefulness in poor seismic areas and its negligible environmental impact are integral parts of effective exploration at minimum cost. As exploration was forced into more difficult areas, the importance of MT and CSAMT, in conjunction with other techniques, has tended to grow continuously. However, there are obviously important and difficult problems remaining to be solved concerning our ability to collect process and interpret MT as well as CSAMT in complex 3D structural environments. This talk aim at reviewing and discussing the recent development on MT as well as CSAMT impedance functions modeling, and also some improvements on estimation procedures for the corresponding impedance functions. In MT impedance modeling, research efforts focus on developing numerical method for computing the impedance functions of three dimensionally (3-D) earth resistivity models. On that reason, 3-D finite elements numerical modeling for the impedances is developed based on edge element method. Whereas, in the CSAMT case, the efforts were focused to accomplish the non-plane wave problem in the corresponding impedance functions. Concerning estimation of MT and CSAMT impedance functions, researches were focused on improving quality of the estimates. On that objective, non-linear regression approach based on the robust M-estimators and the Hilbert transform operating on the causal transfer functions, were used to dealing with outliers (abnormal data) which are frequently superimposed on a normal ambient MT as well as CSAMT noise fields. As validated, the proposed MT impedance modeling method gives acceptable results for standard three dimensional resistivity models. Whilst, the full solution based modeling that accommodate the non-plane wave effect for CSAMT impedances is applied for all measurement zones, including near-, transition

  19. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model and Parameter Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2004-03-01

    The objective of the research described in this report is the development and application of a methodology for comprehensively assessing the hydrogeologic uncertainties involved in dose assessment, including uncertainties associated with conceptual models, parameters, and scenarios. This report describes and applies a statistical method to quantitatively estimate the combined uncertainty in model predictions arising from conceptual model and parameter uncertainties. The method relies on model averaging to combine the predictions of a set of alternative models. Implementation is driven by the available data. When there is minimal site-specific data the method can be carried out with prior parameter estimates based on generic data and subjective prior model probabilities. For sites with observations of system behavior (and optionally data characterizing model parameters), the method uses model calibration to update the prior parameter estimates and model probabilities based on the correspondence between model predictions and site observations. The set of model alternatives can contain both simplified and complex models, with the requirement that all models be based on the same set of data. The method was applied to the geostatistical modeling of air permeability at a fractured rock site. Seven alternative variogram models of log air permeability were considered to represent data from single-hole pneumatic injection tests in six boreholes at the site. Unbiased maximum likelihood estimates of variogram and drift parameters were obtained for each model. Standard information criteria provided an ambiguous ranking of the models, which would not justify selecting one of them and discarding all others as is commonly done in practice. Instead, some of the models were eliminated based on their negligibly small updated probabilities and the rest were used to project the measured log permeabilities by kriging onto a rock volume containing the six boreholes. These four

  20. Model Year 2013 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2012-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  1. Model Year 2011 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2010-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  2. Model Year 2012 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2011-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  3. Estimating Failure Propagation in Models of Cascading Blackouts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dobson, Ian [University of Wisconsin, Madison; Carreras, Benjamin A [ORNL; Lynch, Vickie E [ORNL; Nkei, Bertrand [ORNL; Newman, David E [University of Alaska

    2005-09-01

    We compare and test statistical estimates of failure propagation in data from versions of a probabilistic model of loading-dependent cascading failure and a power systems blackout model of cascading transmission line overloads. The comparisons suggest mechanisms affecting failure propagation and are an initial step towards monitoring failure propagation from practical system data. Approximations to the probabilistic model describe the forms of probability distributions of cascade sizes.

  4. Parameter Estimation for Single Diode Models of Photovoltaic Modules

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hansen, Clifford

    2015-03-01

    Many popular models for photovoltaic system performance employ a single diode model to compute the I - V curve for a module or string of modules at given irradiance and temperature conditions. A single diode model requires a number of parameters to be estimated from measured I - V curves. Many available parameter estimation methods use only short circuit, o pen circuit and maximum power points for a single I - V curve at standard test conditions together with temperature coefficients determined separately for individual cells. In contrast, module testing frequently records I - V curves over a wide range of irradi ance and temperature conditions which, when available , should also be used to parameterize the performance model. We present a parameter estimation method that makes use of a fu ll range of available I - V curves. We verify the accuracy of the method by recov ering known parameter values from simulated I - V curves . We validate the method by estimating model parameters for a module using outdoor test data and predicting the outdoor performance of the module.

  5. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data, A New Data Product for...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data, A New Data Product for Climate Studies Citation Details In-Document Search Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data, ...

  6. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rawlins, M. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Kimball, J. S.; Dass, P.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; et al

    2015-07-28

    A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate modelmore » simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m⁻² yr⁻², equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in

  7. Evaluation of Black Carbon Estimations in Global Aerosol Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koch, D.; Schulz, M.; Kinne, Stefan; McNaughton, C. S.; Spackman, J. R.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S.; Berntsen, T.; Bond, Tami C.; Boucher, Olivier; Chin, M.; Clarke, A. D.; De Luca, N.; Dentener, F.; Diehl, T.; Dubovik, O.; Easter, Richard C.; Fahey, D. W.; Feichter, J.; Fillmore, D.; Freitag, S.; Ghan, Steven J.; Ginoux, P.; Gong, S.; Horowitz, L.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevag, A.; Klimont, Z.; Kondo, Yutaka; Krol, M.; Liu, Xiaohong; Miller, R.; Montanaro, V.; Moteki, N.; Myhre, G.; Penner, J.; Perlwitz, Ja; Pitari, G.; Reddy, S.; Sahu, L.; Sakamoto, H.; Schuster, G.; Schwarz, J. P.; Seland, O.; Stier, P.; Takegawa, Nobuyuki; Takemura, T.; Textor, C.; van Aardenne, John; Zhao, Y.

    2009-11-27

    We evaluate black carbon (BC) model predictions from the AeroCom model intercomparison project by considering the diversity among year 2000 model simulations and comparing model predictions with available measurements. These model-measurement intercomparisons include BC surface and aircraft concentrations, aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) from AERONET and OMI retrievals and BC column estimations based on AERONET. In regions other than Asia, most models are biased high compared to surface concentration measurements. However compared with (column) AAOD or BC burden retreivals, the models are generally biased low. The average ratio of model to retrieved AAOD is less than 0.7 in South American and 0.6 in African biomass burning regions; both of these regions lack surface concentration measurements. In Asia the average model to observed ratio is 0.6 for AAOD and 0.5 for BC surface concentrations. Compared with aircraft measurements over the Americas at latitudes between 0 and 50N, the average model is a factor of 10 larger than observed, and most models exceed the measured BC standard deviation in the mid to upper troposphere. At higher latitudes the average model to aircraft BC is 0.6 and underestimate the observed BC loading in the lower and middle troposphere associated with springtime Arctic haze. Low model bias for AAOD but overestimation of surface and upper atmospheric BC concentrations at lower latitudes suggests that most models are underestimating BC absorption and should improve estimates for refractive index, particle size, and optical effects of BC coating. Retrieval uncertainties and/or differences with model diagnostic treatment may also contribute to the model-measurement disparity. Largest AeroCom model diversity occurred in northern Eurasia and the remote Arctic, regions influenced by anthropogenic sources. Changing emissions, aging, removal, or optical properties within a single model generated a smaller change in model predictions than the

  8. Model Year 2015 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2014-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  9. Model Year 2014 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2013-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  10. Model Year 2016 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2015-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  11. Model Year 2007 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2007-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  12. Model Year 2010 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2009-10-14

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  13. Model Year 2009 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2008-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  14. Model Year 2005 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2004-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  15. Model Year 2008 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2007-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  16. Model Year 2006 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2005-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  17. Estimating vehicle roadside encroachment frequency using accident prediction models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miaou, S.-P.

    1996-07-01

    The existing data to support the development of roadside encroachment- based accident models are extremely limited and largely outdated. Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration and Transportation Research Board, several roadside safety projects have attempted to address this issue by providing rather comprehensive data collection plans and conducting pilot data collection efforts. It is clear from the results of these studies that the required field data collection efforts will be expensive. Furthermore, the validity of any field collected encroachment data may be questionable because of the technical difficulty to distinguish intentional from unintentional encroachments. This paper proposes an alternative method for estimating the basic roadside encroachment data without actually field collecting them. The method is developed by exploring the probabilistic relationships between a roadside encroachment event and a run-off-the-road event With some mild assumptions, the method is capable of providing a wide range of basic encroachment data from conventional accident prediction models. To illustrate the concept and use of such a method, some basic encroachment data are estimated for rural two-lane undivided roads. In addition, the estimated encroachment data are compared with the existing collected data. The illustration shows that the method described in this paper can be a viable approach to estimating basic encroachment data without actually collecting them which can be very costly.

  18. Parameter Estimation for Single Diode Models of Photovoltaic Modules

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2065 Unlimited Release Printed March 2015 Parameter Estimation for Single Diode Models of Photovoltaic Modules Clifford W. Hansen Prepared by Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185 and Livermore, California 94550 Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract

  19. RSMASS: A simple model for estimating reactor and shield masses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marshall, A.C.; Aragon, J.; Gallup, D.

    1987-01-01

    A simple mathematical model (RSMASS) has been developed to provide rapid estimates of reactor and shield masses for space-based reactor power systems. Approximations are used rather than correlations or detailed calculations to estimate the reactor fuel mass and the masses of the moderator, structure, reflector, pressure vessel, miscellaneous components, and the reactor shield. The fuel mass is determined either by neutronics limits, thermal/hydraulic limits, or fuel damage limits, whichever yields the largest mass. RSMASS requires the reactor power and energy, 24 reactor parameters, and 20 shield parameters to be specified. This parametric approach should be applicable to a very broad range of reactor types. Reactor and shield masses calculated by RSMASS were found to be in good agreement with the masses obtained from detailed calculations.

  20. Estimation of landfill emission lifespan using process oriented modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ustohalova, Veronika . E-mail: veronika.ustohalova@uni-essen.de; Ricken, Tim; Widmann, Renatus

    2006-07-01

    Depending on the particular pollutants emitted, landfills may require service activities lasting from hundreds to thousands of years. Flexible tools allowing long-term predictions of emissions are of key importance to determine the nature and expected duration of maintenance and post-closure activities. A highly capable option represents predictions based on models and verified by experiments that are fast, flexible and allow for the comparison of various possible operation scenarios in order to find the most appropriate one. The intention of the presented work was to develop a experimentally verified multi-dimensional predictive model capable of quantifying and estimating processes taking place in landfill sites where coupled process description allows precise time and space resolution. This constitutive 2-dimensional model is based on the macromechanical theory of porous media (TPM) for a saturated thermo-elastic porous body. The model was used to simulate simultaneously occurring processes: organic phase transition, gas emissions, heat transport, and settlement behavior on a long time scale for municipal solid waste deposited in a landfill. The relationships between the properties (composition, pore structure) of a landfill and the conversion and multi-phase transport phenomena inside it were experimentally determined. In this paper, we present both the theoretical background of the model and the results of the simulations at one single point as well as in a vertical landfill cross section.

  1. FASTSim: A Model to Estimate Vehicle Efficiency, Cost and Performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Wang, L.; Wood, E.; Lopp, S.; Ramroth, L.

    2015-05-04

    The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) is a high-level advanced vehicle powertrain systems analysis tool supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. FASTSim provides a quick and simple approach to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery batches of real-world drive cycles. FASTSim’s calculation framework and balance among detail, accuracy, and speed enable it to simulate thousands of driven miles in minutes. The key components and vehicle outputs have been validated by comparing the model outputs to test data for many different vehicles to provide confidence in the results. A graphical user interface makes FASTSim easy and efficient to use. FASTSim is freely available for download from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s website (see www.nrel.gov/fastsim).

  2. ARM CLIMATE MODELING BEST ESTIMATE DATA A New Data Product for...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM CLIMATE MODELING BEST ESTIMATE DATA A New Data Product for Climate Studies Citation Details In-Document Search Title: ARM CLIMATE MODELING BEST ESTIMATE DATA A New Data Product ...

  3. Parameter estimation for models of ligninolytic and cellulolytic enzyme kinetics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Gangsheng; Post, Wilfred M; Mayes, Melanie; Frerichs, Joshua T; Jagadamma, Sindhu

    2012-01-01

    While soil enzymes have been explicitly included in the soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition models, there is a serious lack of suitable data for model parameterization. This study provides well-documented enzymatic parameters for application in enzyme-driven SOC decomposition models from a compilation and analysis of published measurements. In particular, we developed appropriate kinetic parameters for five typical ligninolytic and cellulolytic enzymes ( -glucosidase, cellobiohydrolase, endo-glucanase, peroxidase, and phenol oxidase). The kinetic parameters included the maximum specific enzyme activity (Vmax) and half-saturation constant (Km) in the Michaelis-Menten equation. The activation energy (Ea) and the pH optimum and sensitivity (pHopt and pHsen) were also analyzed. pHsen was estimated by fitting an exponential-quadratic function. The Vmax values, often presented in different units under various measurement conditions, were converted into the same units at a reference temperature (20 C) and pHopt. Major conclusions are: (i) Both Vmax and Km were log-normal distributed, with no significant difference in Vmax exhibited between enzymes originating from bacteria or fungi. (ii) No significant difference in Vmax was found between cellulases and ligninases; however, there was significant difference in Km between them. (iii) Ligninases had higher Ea values and lower pHopt than cellulases; average ratio of pHsen to pHopt ranged 0.3 0.4 for the five enzymes, which means that an increase or decrease of 1.1 1.7 pH units from pHopt would reduce Vmax by 50%. (iv) Our analysis indicated that the Vmax values from lab measurements with purified enzymes were 1 2 orders of magnitude higher than those for use in SOC decomposition models under field conditions.

  4. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    TWPC3) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC3) The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best estimate of several ...

  5. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    TWPC2) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC2) The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best estimate of several ...

  6. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1) The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best estimate ...

  7. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rawlins, M. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Kimball, J. S.; Dass, P.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; Peng, S.; Rinke, A.; Saito, K.; Zhang, W.; Alkama, R.; Bohn, T. J.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Gouttevin, I.; Hajima, T.; Ji, D.; Krinner, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Miller, P.; Moore, J. C.; Smith, B.; Sueyoshi, T.

    2015-07-28

    A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate model simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m⁻² yr⁻², equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our

  8. Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Model; Final report: Documentation of waste management process, development of Cost Estimation Model, and model reference manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Matysiak, L.M.; Burns, M.L.

    1994-03-01

    This final report completes the Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Project, and includes the documentation of the waste management processes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for hazardous, mixed, low-level radioactive solid and transuranic waste, development of the cost estimation model and a user reference manual. The ultimate goal of this effort was to develop an estimate of the life cycle costs for the aforementioned waste types. The Cost Estimation Model is a tool that can be used to calculate the costs of waste management at LANL for the aforementioned waste types, under several different scenarios. Each waste category at LANL is managed in a separate fashion, according to Department of Energy requirements and state and federal regulations. The cost of the waste management process for each waste category has not previously been well documented. In particular, the costs associated with the handling, treatment and storage of the waste have not been well understood. It is anticipated that greater knowledge of these costs will encourage waste generators at the Laboratory to apply waste minimization techniques to current operations. Expected benefits of waste minimization are a reduction in waste volume, decrease in liability and lower waste management costs.

  9. Glass Property Models and Constraints for Estimating the Glass...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Plus the models do not currently address the prediction uncertainties that would be needed ... glass volume projections due to model prediction uncertainties that has to be considered ...

  10. A Three-Parameter Model for Estimating Atmospheric Tritium Dose at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simpkins, A.A.; Hamby, D.M.

    1997-12-31

    The models used in the NRC approach to assess chronic atmospheric release of radioactivity generate deterministic dose estimates by using assumptions about exposure conditions and environmental transport mechanisms.

  11. Impedance-estimation methods, modeling methods, articles of manufacture, impedance-modeling devices, and estimated-impedance monitoring systems

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Richardson, John G.

    2009-11-17

    An impedance estimation method includes measuring three or more impedances of an object having a periphery using three or more probes coupled to the periphery. The three or more impedance measurements are made at a first frequency. Three or more additional impedance measurements of the object are made using the three or more probes. The three or more additional impedance measurements are made at a second frequency different from the first frequency. An impedance of the object at a point within the periphery is estimated based on the impedance measurements and the additional impedance measurements.

  12. Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Outkin, Alexander V.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Vargas, Vanessa N

    2015-01-27

    Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.

  13. Parameter Estimation and Model Validation of Nonlinear Dynamical Networks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abarbanel, Henry; Gill, Philip

    2015-03-31

    In the performance period of this work under a DOE contract, the co-PIs, Philip Gill and Henry Abarbanel, developed new methods for statistical data assimilation for problems of DOE interest, including geophysical and biological problems. This included numerical optimization algorithms for variational principles, new parallel processing Monte Carlo routines for performing the path integrals of statistical data assimilation. These results have been summarized in the monograph: “Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems” by Henry Abarbanel, published by Spring-Verlag in June 2013. Additional results and details have appeared in the peer reviewed literature.

  14. Estimating Heat and Mass Transfer Processes in Green Roof Systems: Current Modeling Capabilities and Limitations (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tabares Velasco, P. C.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation discusses estimating heat and mass transfer processes in green roof systems: current modeling capabilities and limitations. Green roofs are 'specialized roofing systems that support vegetation growth on rooftops.'

  15. Evaluation of Clear Sky Models for Satellite-Based Irradiance Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sengupta, M.; Gotseff, P.

    2013-12-01

    This report describes an intercomparison of three popular broadband clear sky solar irradiance model results with measured data, as well as satellite-based model clear sky results compared to measured clear sky data. The authors conclude that one of the popular clear sky models (the Bird clear sky model developed by Richard Bird and Roland Hulstrom) could serve as a more accurate replacement for current satellite-model clear sky estimations. Additionally, the analysis of the model results with respect to model input parameters indicates that rather than climatological, annual, or monthly mean input data, higher-time-resolution input parameters improve the general clear sky model performance.

  16. A review of existing models and methods to estimate employment effects of pollution control policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Darwin, R.F.; Nesse, R.J.

    1988-02-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide information about existing models and methods used to estimate coal mining employment impacts of pollution control policies. The EPA is currently assessing the consequences of various alternative policies to reduce air pollution. One important potential consequence of these policies is that coal mining employment may decline or shift from low-sulfur to high-sulfur coal producing regions. The EPA requires models that can estimate the magnitude and cost of these employment changes at the local level. This paper contains descriptions and evaluations of three models and methods currently used to estimate the size and cost of coal mining employment changes. The first model reviewed is the Coal and Electric Utilities Model (CEUM), a well established, general purpose model that has been used by the EPA and other groups to simulate air pollution control policies. The second model reviewed is the Advanced Utility Simulation Model (AUSM), which was developed for the EPA specifically to analyze the impacts of air pollution control policies. Finally, the methodology used by Arthur D. Little, Inc. to estimate the costs of alternative air pollution control policies for the Consolidated Coal Company is discussed. These descriptions and evaluations are based on information obtained from published reports and from draft documentation of the models provided by the EPA. 12 refs., 1 fig.

  17. Evaluation of models for estimating solar irradiation on vertical surfaces at Valencia, Spain

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Utrillas, M.P.; Martinez-Lozano, J.A.; Casanovas, A.J. )

    1991-01-01

    Hourly irradiation data recorded on vertical surfaces at north, east, south, and west orientations during the winter period going from December 1989 to March 1990 in Valencia, Spain, have been compared with estimated solar irradiation from several tilted-surface models. The isotropic-, Temps' and Coulson's-, Klucher's-, Hay's-, Shartveit's and Olseth's, Gueymard's-, and Perez' (simplified) models have been considered for this comparison. Root-mean-square-difference (RMSD), mean-bias-difference (MBD) and mean-absolute-difference (MAD) estimators have been used to measure the departure of models from experimental data. Modeled values are evaluated with the original coefficients proposed by the authors. Results of comparison show that the south orientation is less prone to modeling errors. Perez' 25{degree} circumsolar simplified model being the less affected by errors in north, eat and south orientations; for west orientation Klucher's model gives a lesser error. These results are consistent with those reported in previous studies.

  18. Substitution and price elasticity estimates using inter-countrypooled data in a translog cost model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Roy, Joyashree; Sanstad, Alan H.; Sathaye, Jayant A.; Khaddaria,Raman

    2006-06-01

    Pooled data across several developing countries and the U.S. were used to estimate long-run substitution and price elasticities ina translog framework for the paper, iron and steel, and aggregatemanufacturing industries. While the quality of the estimates variesacross the several industry-specific models, the results suggest highervalues for these elasticities than appear commonly used in integratedassessment models. Estimates of own-price elasticities of energy rangefrom - 0.80 to - 1.76 and are comparable to estimates from previouseconometric studies in the context of developed countries (- 0.77 to -0.87). Substitution elasticities show wider variation across countriesand industries. For energy and capital they range from -1.96 to 9.80, forlabor and energy from 2.61 to 7.11, and for energy and material from -0.26 to 2.07.

  19. Parameter estimation from flowing fluid temperature logging data in unsaturated fractured rock using multiphase inverse modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mukhopadhyay, S.; Tsang, Y.; Finsterle, S.

    2009-01-15

    A simple conceptual model has been recently developed for analyzing pressure and temperature data from flowing fluid temperature logging (FFTL) in unsaturated fractured rock. Using this conceptual model, we developed an analytical solution for FFTL pressure response, and a semianalytical solution for FFTL temperature response. We also proposed a method for estimating fracture permeability from FFTL temperature data. The conceptual model was based on some simplifying assumptions, particularly that a single-phase airflow model was used. In this paper, we develop a more comprehensive numerical model of multiphase flow and heat transfer associated with FFTL. Using this numerical model, we perform a number of forward simulations to determine the parameters that have the strongest influence on the pressure and temperature response from FFTL. We then use the iTOUGH2 optimization code to estimate these most sensitive parameters through inverse modeling and to quantify the uncertainties associated with these estimated parameters. We conclude that FFTL can be utilized to determine permeability, porosity, and thermal conductivity of the fracture rock. Two other parameters, which are not properties of the fractured rock, have strong influence on FFTL response. These are pressure and temperature in the borehole that were at equilibrium with the fractured rock formation at the beginning of FFTL. We illustrate how these parameters can also be estimated from FFTL data.

  20. New DOE Modeling Tool Estimates Economic Benefits of Offshore Wind Plants

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    To help developers more readily estimate the economic benefits of offshore wind plants, DOE recently released a new version of the Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) input-output modeling tool. The original tool was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to estimate the economic impacts of constructing renewable power plants. The updated version allows users to better understand the potential regional economic impacts of offshore wind development.

  1. Shell model estimate of electric dipole moment in medium and heavy nuclei

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoshinaga, Naotaka; Higashiyama, Koji

    2011-05-06

    The nuclear electric dipole moment (EDM) and the nuclear Schiff moment for the lowest 1/2{sup +} state of {sup 129}Xe are investigated in terms of the nuclear shell model. We estimate the upper limit for the EDM of neutral {sup 129}Xe atom using the Schiff moment. We also estimate the upper limit of the nuclear EDM, which may be directly measured through ionic atoms.

  2. Development and validation of a two-dimensional fast-response flood estimation model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Judi, David R; Mcpherson, Timothy N; Burian, Steven J

    2009-01-01

    A finite difference formulation of the shallow water equations using an upwind differencing method was developed maintaining computational efficiency and accuracy such that it can be used as a fast-response flood estimation tool. The model was validated using both laboratory controlled experiments and an actual dam breach. Through the laboratory experiments, the model was shown to give good estimations of depth and velocity when compared to the measured data, as well as when compared to a more complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies show that a relatively numerical scheme used to solve the complete shallow water equations can be used to accurately estimate flood inundation. Future work will focus on further reducing the computation time needed to provide flood inundation estimates for fast-response analyses. This will be accomplished through the efficient use of multi-core, multi-processor computers coupled with an efficient domain-tracking algorithm, as well as an understanding of the impacts of grid resolution on model results.

  3. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  4. A model for estimation of potential generation of waste electrical and electronic equipment in Brazil

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Araujo, Marcelo Guimaraes; Magrini, Alessandra; Mahler, Claudio Fernando; Bilitewski, Bernd

    2012-02-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Literature of WEEE generation in developing countries is reviewed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We analyse existing estimates of WEEE generation for Brazil. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a model for WEEE generation estimate. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer WEEE generation of 3.77 kg/capita year for 2008 is estimated. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Use of constant lifetime should be avoided for non-mature market products. - Abstract: Sales of electrical and electronic equipment are increasing dramatically in developing countries. Usually, there are no reliable data about quantities of the waste generated. A new law for solid waste management was enacted in Brazil in 2010, and the infrastructure to treat this waste must be planned, considering the volumes of the different types of electrical and electronic equipment generated. This paper reviews the literature regarding estimation of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE), focusing on developing countries, particularly in Latin America. It briefly describes the current WEEE system in Brazil and presents an updated estimate of generation of WEEE. Considering the limited available data in Brazil, a model for WEEE generation estimation is proposed in which different methods are used for mature and non-mature market products. The results showed that the most important variable is the equipment lifetime, which requires a thorough understanding of consumer behavior to estimate. Since Brazil is a rapidly expanding market, the 'boom' in waste generation is still to come. In the near future, better data will provide more reliable estimation of waste generation and a clearer interpretation of the lifetime variable throughout the years.

  5. Estimating Parameters for the PVsyst Version 6 Photovoltaic Module Performance Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hansen, Clifford

    2015-10-01

    We present an algorithm to determine parameters for the photovoltaic module perf ormance model encoded in the software package PVsyst(TM) version 6. Our method operates on current - voltage (I - V) measured over a range of irradiance and temperature conditions. We describe the method and illustrate its steps using data for a 36 cell crystalli ne silicon module. We qualitatively compare our method with one other technique for estimating parameters for the PVsyst(TM) version 6 model .

  6. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1 V4) Title: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1 V4) The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best ...

  7. Estimating Bacteria Emissions from Inversion of Atmospheric Transport: Sensitivity to Modelled Particle Characteristics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burrows, Susannah M.; Rayner, Perter; Butler, T.; Lawrence, M.

    2013-06-04

    Model-simulated transport of atmospheric trace components can be combined with observed concentrations to obtain estimates of ground-based sources using various inversion techniques. These approaches have been applied in the past primarily to obtain source estimates for long-lived trace gases such as CO2. We consider the application of similar techniques to source estimation for atmospheric aerosols, by using as a case study the estimation of bacteria emissions from different ecosystem regions in the global atmospheric chemistry and climate model ECHAM5/MESSy-Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC). Simulated particle concentrations in the tropopause region and at high latitudes, as well as transport of particles to tundra and land ice regions are shown to be highly sensitive to scavenging in mixed-phase clouds, which is poorly characterized in most global climate models. This may be a critical uncertainty in correctly simulating the transport of aerosol particles to the Arctic. Source estimation via Monte Carlo Markov Chain is applied to a suite of sensitivity simulations and the global mean emissions are estimated. We present an analysis of the partitioning of uncertainties in the global mean emissions that are attributable to particle size, CCN activity, the ice nucleation scavenging ratios for mixed-phase and cold clouds, and measurement error. Uncertainty due to CCN activity or to a 1 um error in particle size is typically between 10% and 40% of the uncertainty due to data uncertainty, as measured by the 5%-ile to 95%-ile range of the Monte Carlo ensemble. Uncertainty attributable to the ice nucleation scavenging ratio in mized-phase clouds is as high as 10% to 20% of the data uncertainty. Taken together, the four model 20 parameters examined contribute about half as much to the uncertainty in the estimated emissions as do the measurements. This was a surprisingly large contribution from model uncertainty in light of the substantial data uncertainty, which ranges from 81

  8. Geomechanical Analysis with Rigorous Error Estimates for a Double-Porosity Reservoir Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Berryman, J G

    2005-04-11

    A model of random polycrystals of porous laminates is introduced to provide a means for studying geomechanical properties of double-porosity reservoirs. Calculations on the resulting earth reservoir model can proceed semi-analytically for studies of either the poroelastic or transport coefficients. Rigorous bounds of the Hashin-Shtrikman type provide estimates of overall bulk and shear moduli, and thereby also provide rigorous error estimates for geomechanical constants obtained from up-scaling based on a self-consistent effective medium method. The influence of hidden (or presumed unknown) microstructure on the final results can then be evaluated quantitatively. Detailed descriptions of the use of the model and some numerical examples showing typical results for the double-porosity poroelastic coefficients of a heterogeneous reservoir are presented.

  9. Estimation of k-e parameters using surrogate models and jet-in-crossflow data.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lefantzi, Sophia; Ray, Jaideep; Arunajatesan, Srinivasan; Dechant, Lawrence

    2015-02-01

    We demonstrate a Bayesian method that can be used to calibrate computationally expensive 3D RANS (Reynolds Av- eraged Navier Stokes) models with complex response surfaces. Such calibrations, conditioned on experimental data, can yield turbulence model parameters as probability density functions (PDF), concisely capturing the uncertainty in the parameter estimates. Methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimate the PDF by sampling, with each sample requiring a run of the RANS model. Consequently a quick-running surrogate is used instead to the RANS simulator. The surrogate can be very difficult to design if the model's response i.e., the dependence of the calibration variable (the observable) on the parameter being estimated is complex. We show how the training data used to construct the surrogate can be employed to isolate a promising and physically realistic part of the parameter space, within which the response is well-behaved and easily modeled. We design a classifier, based on treed linear models, to model the "well-behaved region". This classifier serves as a prior in a Bayesian calibration study aimed at estimating 3 k [?] e parameters ( C u , C e 2 , C e 1 ) from experimental data of a transonic jet-in-crossflow interaction. The robustness of the calibration is investigated by checking its predictions of variables not included in the cal- ibration data. We also check the limit of applicability of the calibration by testing at off-calibration flow regimes. We find that calibration yield turbulence model parameters which predict the flowfield far better than when the nomi- nal values of the parameters are used. Substantial improvements are still obtained when we use the calibrated RANS model to predict jet-in-crossflow at Mach numbers and jet strengths quite different from those used to generate the ex- perimental (calibration) data. Thus the primary reason for poor predictive skill of RANS, when using nominal values of the turbulence model

  10. Estimating Loss-of-Coolant Accident Frequencies for the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. A. Eide; D. M. Rasmuson; C. L. Atwood

    2008-09-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission maintains a set of risk models covering the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. These standardized plant analysis risk (SPAR) models include several loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) initiating events such as small (SLOCA), medium (MLOCA), and large (LLOCA). All of these events involve a loss of coolant inventory from the reactor coolant system. In order to maintain a level of consistency across these models, initiating event frequencies generally are based on plant-type average performance, where the plant types are boiling water reactors and pressurized water reactors. For certain risk analyses, these plant-type initiating event frequencies may be replaced by plant-specific estimates. Frequencies for SPAR LOCA initiating events previously were based on results presented in NUREG/CR-5750, but the newest models use results documented in NUREG/CR-6928. The estimates in NUREG/CR-6928 are based on historical data from the initiating events database for pressurized water reactor SLOCA or an interpretation of results presented in the draft version of NUREG-1829. The information in NUREG-1829 can be used several ways, resulting in different estimates for the various LOCA frequencies. Various ways NUREG-1829 information can be used to estimate LOCA frequencies were investigated and this paper presents two methods for the SPAR model standard inputs, which differ from the method used in NUREG/CR-6928. In addition, results obtained from NUREG-1829 are compared with actual operating experience as contained in the initiating events database.

  11. An ensemble Kalman filter for statistical estimation of physics constrained nonlinear regression models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harlim, John; Mahdi, Adam; Majda, Andrew J.

    2014-01-15

    A central issue in contemporary science is the development of nonlinear data driven statisticaldynamical models for time series of noisy partial observations from nature or a complex model. It has been established recently that ad-hoc quadratic multi-level regression models can have finite-time blow-up of statistical solutions and/or pathological behavior of their invariant measure. Recently, a new class of physics constrained nonlinear regression models were developed to ameliorate this pathological behavior. Here a new finite ensemble Kalman filtering algorithm is developed for estimating the state, the linear and nonlinear model coefficients, the model and the observation noise covariances from available partial noisy observations of the state. Several stringent tests and applications of the method are developed here. In the most complex application, the perfect model has 57 degrees of freedom involving a zonal (eastwest) jet, two topographic Rossby waves, and 54 nonlinearly interacting Rossby waves; the perfect model has significant non-Gaussian statistics in the zonal jet with blocked and unblocked regimes and a non-Gaussian skewed distribution due to interaction with the other 56 modes. We only observe the zonal jet contaminated by noise and apply the ensemble filter algorithm for estimation. Numerically, we find that a three dimensional nonlinear stochastic model with one level of memory mimics the statistical effect of the other 56 modes on the zonal jet in an accurate fashion, including the skew non-Gaussian distribution and autocorrelation decay. On the other hand, a similar stochastic model with zero memory levels fails to capture the crucial non-Gaussian behavior of the zonal jet from the perfect 57-mode model.

  12. Estimation and decomposition of productive efficiency in a panel data model: an application to electric utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melfi, C.A.

    1984-01-01

    New econometric methodology for modeling and estimating technical and allocative efficiency in production is proposed and applied. Translog cost frontier and share equations are presented in a panel data context, with the structure of the error terms representing noise and inefficiency. The use of panel data with this multivariate error components approach facilitates the separation of eficiency into its technical and allocative components, as well as the separation of noise from inefficiency. The model used is logically consistent in that the distributional assumptions concerning the disturbance vectors take into account the relationships among the disturbance terms in the cost and share equations. This method of efficiency measurement is applied to the electric utilities industry to obtain individual firm estimates of technical and allocative efficiency. The data consist of yearly cost, output, and input price information on 38 electric utility firms over a period of 18 years. Rate-of-return regulation in the electric utilities industry requires estimation of a regulated cost frontier and the associated share equations. Estimates of technical and allocative efficiency are obtained for each firm in every year. Comparisons are made with previous efficiency measurement studies. The measures of efficiency are analyzed in light of rate-of-return regulation.

  13. Glass Property Data and Models for Estimating High-Level Waste Glass Volume

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vienna, John D.; Fluegel, Alexander; Kim, Dong-Sang; Hrma, Pavel R.

    2009-10-05

    This report describes recent efforts to develop glass property models that can be used to help estimate the volume of high-level waste (HLW) glass that will result from vitrification of Hanford tank waste. The compositions of acceptable and processable HLW glasses need to be optimized to minimize the waste-form volume and, hence, to save cost. A database of properties and associated compositions for simulated waste glasses was collected for developing property-composition models. This database, although not comprehensive, represents a large fraction of data on waste-glass compositions and properties that were available at the time of this report. Glass property-composition models were fit to subsets of the database for several key glass properties. These models apply to a significantly broader composition space than those previously publised. These models should be considered for interim use in calculating properties of Hanford waste glasses.

  14. Attempt to estimate measurement uncertainty in the Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zettlemoyer, M.D.

    1990-01-01

    The Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model is a Gaussian puff dispersion model that predicts plumes, concentrations, and hazard distances of toxic chemical spills. A measurement uncertainty propagation formula derived by Freeman et al. (1986) is used within AFTOX to estimate resulting concentration uncertainties due to the effects of data input uncertainties in wind speed, spill height, emission rate, and the horizontal and vertical Gaussian dispersion parameters, and the results are compared to true uncertainties as estimated by standard deviations computed by Monte Carlo simulations. The measurement uncertainty uncertainty propagation formula was found to overestimate measurement uncertainty in AFTOX-calculated concentrations by at least 350 percent, with overestimates worsening with increasing stability and/or increasing measurement uncertainty.

  15. Evaluation of the Effective Moisture Penetration Depth Model for Estimating Moisture Buffering in Buildings

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Evaluation of the Effective Moisture Penetration Depth Model for Estimating Moisture Buffering in Buildings J. Woods, J. Winkler, and D. Christensen National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL/TP-5500-57441 January 2013 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. National Renewable Energy Laboratory 15013 Denver West Parkway Golden, Colorado 80401

  16. Systematic parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis using a multidimensional PEMFC model coupled with DAKOTA.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Chao Yang; Luo, Gang; Jiang, Fangming; Carnes, Brian; Chen, Ken Shuang

    2010-05-01

    Current computational models for proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) include a large number of parameters such as boundary conditions, material properties, and numerous parameters used in sub-models for membrane transport, two-phase flow and electrochemistry. In order to successfully use a computational PEMFC model in design and optimization, it is important to identify critical parameters under a wide variety of operating conditions, such as relative humidity, current load, temperature, etc. Moreover, when experimental data is available in the form of polarization curves or local distribution of current and reactant/product species (e.g., O2, H2O concentrations), critical parameters can be estimated in order to enable the model to better fit the data. Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation are typically performed using manual adjustment of parameters, which is also common in parameter studies. We present work to demonstrate a systematic approach based on using a widely available toolkit developed at Sandia called DAKOTA that supports many kinds of design studies, such as sensitivity analysis as well as optimization and uncertainty quantification. In the present work, we couple a multidimensional PEMFC model (which is being developed, tested and later validated in a joint effort by a team from Penn State Univ. and Sandia National Laboratories) with DAKOTA through the mapping of model parameters to system responses. Using this interface, we demonstrate the efficiency of performing simple parameter studies as well as identifying critical parameters using sensitivity analysis. Finally, we show examples of optimization and parameter estimation using the automated capability in DAKOTA.

  17. A Bayesian Machine Learning Model for Estimating Building Occupancy from Open Source Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stewart, Robert N.; Urban, Marie L.; Duchscherer, Samantha E.; Kaufman, Jason; Morton, April M.; Thakur, Gautam; Piburn, Jesse; Moehl, Jessica

    2016-01-01

    Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the art by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian based informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000ft2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including

  18. A Bayesian Machine Learning Model for Estimating Building Occupancy from Open Source Data

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Stewart, Robert N.; Urban, Marie L.; Duchscherer, Samantha E.; Kaufman, Jason; Morton, April M.; Thakur, Gautam; Piburn, Jesse; Moehl, Jessica

    2016-01-01

    Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the artmore » by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian based informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000ft2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information

  19. Reasons for changes in MPG estimates, model year 1978 to the present

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Patterson, P.D.; Westbrook, F.W.; Greene, D.L.; Roberts, G.F.

    1984-01-01

    In model year 1983, new car MPG declined for the first time in ten years. Accompanying this decline in MPG, the size of the average car increased, car weights and engine sized increased and diesel sales declined - all reversing their movements over the previous ten years. Using carline MPG estimates and sales figures, it is estimated that new car MPG declined 0.29 in 1983 after rising 6.70 MPG over the previous four years. Furthermore,it is estimated that actions by new car buyers would have lowered the 1983 MPG 0.40 MPG through the purchase of larger cars, cars with larger engines and fewer diesel engines if the manufacturers had not some fuel economy improvements and introduced some new high-MPG cars. A simple model of future fuel use increases as a friction of MPG levels below a specified level consistent with the CAFE standards shows that the costs of lower fuel economy will only gradually be felt, but that these costs will increase over time and persist for over a decade.

  20. Estimation of anisotropy parameters in organic-rich shale: Rock physics forward modeling approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Herawati, Ida Winardhi, Sonny; Priyono, Awali

    2015-09-30

    Anisotropy analysis becomes an important step in processing and interpretation of seismic data. One of the most important things in anisotropy analysis is anisotropy parameter estimation which can be estimated using well data, core data or seismic data. In seismic data, anisotropy parameter calculation is generally based on velocity moveout analysis. However, the accuracy depends on data quality, available offset, and velocity moveout picking. Anisotropy estimation using seismic data is needed to obtain wide coverage of particular layer anisotropy. In anisotropic reservoir, analysis of anisotropy parameters also helps us to better understand the reservoir characteristics. Anisotropy parameters, especially ε, are related to rock property and lithology determination. Current research aims to estimate anisotropy parameter from seismic data and integrate well data with case study in potential shale gas reservoir. Due to complexity in organic-rich shale reservoir, extensive study from different disciplines is needed to understand the reservoir. Shale itself has intrinsic anisotropy caused by lamination of their formed minerals. In order to link rock physic with seismic response, it is necessary to build forward modeling in organic-rich shale. This paper focuses on studying relationship between reservoir properties such as clay content, porosity and total organic content with anisotropy. Organic content which defines prospectivity of shale gas can be considered as solid background or solid inclusion or both. From the forward modeling result, it is shown that organic matter presence increases anisotropy in shale. The relationships between total organic content and other seismic properties such as acoustic impedance and Vp/Vs are also presented.

  1. Off-Highway Gasoline Consuption Estimation Models Used in the Federal Highway Administration Attribution Process: 2008 Updates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, Ho-Ling; Davis, Stacy Cagle

    2009-12-01

    This report is designed to document the analysis process and estimation models currently used by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to estimate the off-highway gasoline consumption and public sector fuel consumption. An overview of the entire FHWA attribution process is provided along with specifics related to the latest update (2008) on the Off-Highway Gasoline Use Model and the Public Use of Gasoline Model. The Off-Highway Gasoline Use Model is made up of five individual modules, one for each of the off-highway categories: agricultural, industrial and commercial, construction, aviation, and marine. This 2008 update of the off-highway models was the second major update (the first model update was conducted during 2002-2003) after they were originally developed in mid-1990. The agricultural model methodology, specifically, underwent a significant revision because of changes in data availability since 2003. Some revision to the model was necessary due to removal of certain data elements used in the original estimation method. The revised agricultural model also made use of some newly available information, published by the data source agency in recent years. The other model methodologies were not drastically changed, though many data elements were updated to improve the accuracy of these models. Note that components in the Public Use of Gasoline Model were not updated in 2008. A major challenge in updating estimation methods applied by the public-use model is that they would have to rely on significant new data collection efforts. In addition, due to resource limitation, several components of the models (both off-highway and public-us models) that utilized regression modeling approaches were not recalibrated under the 2008 study. An investigation of the Environmental Protection Agency's NONROAD2005 model was also carried out under the 2008 model update. Results generated from the NONROAD2005 model were analyzed, examined, and compared, to the extent that is

  2. A mathematical model for the estimation of flue temperature in a coke oven

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Choi, K.I.; Kim, S.Y.; Suo, J.S.; Hur, N.S.; Kang, I.S.; Lee, W.J.

    1997-12-31

    The coke plants at the Kwangyang works has adopted an Automatic Battery Control (ABC) system which consists of four main parts, battery heating control, underfiring heat and waste gas oxygen control, pushing and charging schedule and Autotherm-S that measures heating wall temperature during pushing. The measured heating wall temperature is used for calculating Mean Battery Temperature (MBT) which is average temperature of flues for a battery, but the Autotherm-S system can not provide the flue temperatures of an oven. This work attempted to develop mathematical models for the estimation of the flue temperature using the measured heating wall temperature and to examine fitness of the mathematical model for the coke plant operation by analysis of raw gas temperature at the stand pipe. Through this work it is possible to reflect heating wall temperature in calculating MBT for battery heating control without the interruption caused by a maintenance break.

  3. Modelling estimation on the impacts of global warming on rice production in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang Futang

    1997-12-31

    In this paper, based on the validation and sensitivity analyses of two rice growth models (ORYZA1 and DRISIC--Double Rice Cropping Simulation Model for China), and their joining with global warming scenarios projected by GCMs (GFDL, UKMO-H, MPI and DKRZ OPYC, DKRZ LSG, respectively), the modelling experiments were carried out on the potential impacts of global warming on rice production in China. The results show that although there are the some features for each rice cropping patterns because of different models and estimated methods, the rice production for all cropping patterns in China will trend to decrease with different degrees. In average, early, middle and later rice production, as well as, double-early and double-later rice production in different areas of China will decrease 3.7%, 10.5% and 10.4%, as well as, 15.9% and 14.4%, respectively. It do illustrates that the advantage effects induced by elevated CO{sub 2} concentration on photosynthesis does not compensate the adverse effects of temperature increase. Thus, it is necessary to adjusting rice cropping patterns, cultivars and farming techniques to the global warming timely.

  4. Incorporating a Time Horizon in Rate-of-Return Estimations: Discounted Cash Flow Model in Electric Transmission Rate Cases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chatterjee, Bishu; Sharp, Peter A.

    2006-07-15

    Electric transmission and other rate cases use a form of the discounted cash flow model with a single long-term growth rate to estimate rates of return on equity. It cannot incorporate information about the appropriate time horizon for which analysts' estimates of earnings growth have predictive powers. Only a non-constant growth model can explicitly recognize the importance of the time horizon in an ROE calculation. (author)

  5. sparse-msrf:A package for sparse modeling and estimation of fossil-fuel CO2 emission fields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2014-10-06

    The software is used to fit models of emission fields (e.g., fossil-fuel CO2 emissions) to sparse measurements of gaseous concentrations. Its primary aim is to provide an implementation and a demonstration for the algorithms and models developed in J. Ray, V. Yadav, A. M. Michalak, B. van Bloemen Waanders and S. A. McKenna, "A multiresolution spatial parameterization for the estimation of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions via atmospheric inversions", accepted, Geoscientific Model Development, 2014. The software can be used to estimate emissions of non-reactive gases such as fossil-fuel CO2, methane etc. The software uses a proxy of the emission field being estimated (e.g., for fossil-fuel CO2, a population density map is a good proxy) to construct a wavelet model for the emission field. It then uses a shrinkage regression algorithm called Stagewise Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (StOMP) to fit the wavelet model to concentration measurements, using an atmospheric transport model to relate emission and concentration fields. Algorithmic novelties described in the paper above (1) ensure that the estimated emission fields are non-negative, (2) allow the use of guesses for emission fields to accelerate the estimation processes and (3) ensure that under/overestimates in the guesses do not skew the estimation.

  6. sparse-msrf:A package for sparse modeling and estimation of fossil-fuel CO2 emission fields

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-10-06

    The software is used to fit models of emission fields (e.g., fossil-fuel CO2 emissions) to sparse measurements of gaseous concentrations. Its primary aim is to provide an implementation and a demonstration for the algorithms and models developed in J. Ray, V. Yadav, A. M. Michalak, B. van Bloemen Waanders and S. A. McKenna, "A multiresolution spatial parameterization for the estimation of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions via atmospheric inversions", accepted, Geoscientific Model Development, 2014. The softwaremore » can be used to estimate emissions of non-reactive gases such as fossil-fuel CO2, methane etc. The software uses a proxy of the emission field being estimated (e.g., for fossil-fuel CO2, a population density map is a good proxy) to construct a wavelet model for the emission field. It then uses a shrinkage regression algorithm called Stagewise Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (StOMP) to fit the wavelet model to concentration measurements, using an atmospheric transport model to relate emission and concentration fields. Algorithmic novelties described in the paper above (1) ensure that the estimated emission fields are non-negative, (2) allow the use of guesses for emission fields to accelerate the estimation processes and (3) ensure that under/overestimates in the guesses do not skew the estimation.« less

  7. Moment-Based Probability Modeling and Extreme Response Estimation, The FITS Routine Version 1.2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MANUEL,LANCE; KASHEF,TINA; WINTERSTEIN,STEVEN R.

    1999-11-01

    This report documents the use of the FITS routine, which provides automated fits of various analytical, commonly used probability models from input data. It is intended to complement the previously distributed FITTING routine documented in RMS Report 14 (Winterstein et al., 1994), which implements relatively complex four-moment distribution models whose parameters are fit with numerical optimization routines. Although these four-moment fits can be quite useful and faithful to the observed data, their complexity can make them difficult to automate within standard fitting algorithms. In contrast, FITS provides more robust (lower moment) fits of simpler, more conventional distribution forms. For each database of interest, the routine estimates the distribution of annual maximum response based on the data values and the duration, T, over which they were recorded. To focus on the upper tails of interest, the user can also supply an arbitrary lower-bound threshold, {chi}{sub low}, above which a shifted distribution model--exponential or Weibull--is fit.

  8. CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response): A Generic Transportation Network Model for the Calculation of Evacuation Time Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Moeller, M. P.; Urbanik, II, T.; Desrosiers, A. E.

    1982-03-01

    This paper describes the methodology and application of the computer model CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response) which estimates the time required for a specific population density and distribution to evacuate an area using a specific transportation network. The CLEAR model simulates vehicle departure and movement on a transportation network according to the conditions and consequences of traffic flow. These include handling vehicles at intersecting road segments, calculating the velocity of travel on a road segment as a function of its vehicle density, and accounting for the delay of vehicles in traffic queues. The program also models the distribution of times required by individuals to prepare for an evacuation. In order to test its accuracy, the CLEAR model was used to estimate evacuatlon tlmes for the emergency planning zone surrounding the Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Plant. The Beaver Valley site was selected because evacuation time estimates had previously been prepared by the licensee, Duquesne Light, as well as by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. A lack of documentation prevented a detailed comparison of the estimates based on the CLEAR model and those obtained by Duquesne Light. However, the CLEAR model results compared favorably with the estimates prepared by the other two agencies.

  9. Experimental estimation of dynamic plastic bending moments by plastic hinge models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sogo, T.; Ujihashi, S.; Matsumoto, H.; Adachi, T.

    1995-12-31

    In the present paper, the experimental estimation of dynamic plastic bending moments for metallic materials is investigated. The three-point bending, test under impact and static loads is applied to aluminum alloy (JIS A6063S) and mild steel (JIS SS400). It is confirmed that tile dynamic bending deformations in three-point bending test can be modeled as a plastic hinge, tile experimental results show that the consumed energies of the specimens are proportional to the bending angles. The ratio of the consumed energy to the bending angle is approximately equal to the plastic bending moment. In the case of aluminum alloy, the dynamic plastic bending moments for the different average bending angular velocities coincide with the static plastic bending moments. On the other hand, in the case of mild steel, the dynamic plastic bending moments are proportional to the average bending angular velocities. As a result, we confirm that the present method based on the plastic hinge model and the consumed energy is efficient for determining tile dynamic plastic bending moment.

  10. Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, A.; Weaver, C. P.; Morefield, Philip; Huang, Jin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, P. J.; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, J.; Mahoney, Hardee

    2012-11-01

    Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices.

  11. An international comparison of models and approaches for the estimation of the radiological exposure of non-human biota.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beresford, N. A.; Balonov, M.; Beaugelin-Seiller, K.; Brown, J.; Copperstone, D.; Hingston, J. L.; Horyna, J.; Hosseini, A.; Howard, B. J.; Kamboj, S.; Nedveckaite, T.; Olyslaegers, G.; Sazykina, T.; Vives i Batlle, J.; Yankovich , T. L.; Yu, C.; Environmental Science Division; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology; Inter. Atomic Energy Agency; Inst. de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire; Norwegian Radiatioin Protection Authority; England & Wales Environment Agency; SUJB; Inst. of Physics; SCK CEN; SPA-Typhoon; Westlakes Scientific Consulting Limited; Atomic Energy Canada Limited

    2008-01-01

    Over the last decade a number of models and approaches have been developed for the estimation of the exposure of non-human biota to ionizing radiations. In some countries these are now being used in regulatory assessments. However, to date there has been no attempt to compare the outputs of the different models used. This paper presents the work of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS Biota Working Group which compares the predictions of a number of such models in model-model and model-data inter-comparisons.

  12. Estimating present climate in a warming world: a model-based approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Raeisaenen, J.; Ruokolainen, L. [University of Helsinki (Finland). Division of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysics

    2008-09-30

    Weather services base their operational definitions of 'present' climate on past observations, using a 30-year normal period such as 1961-1990 or 1971-2000. In a world with ongoing global warming, however, past data give a biased estimate of the actual present-day climate. Here we propose to correct this bias with a 'delta change' method, in which model-simulated climate changes and observed global mean temperature changes are used to extrapolate past observations forward in time, to make them representative of present or future climate conditions. In a hindcast test for the years 1991-2002, the method works well for temperature, with a clear improvement in verification statistics compared to the case in which the hindcast is formed directly from the observations for 1961-1990. However, no improvement is found for precipitation, for which the signal-to-noise ratio between expected anthropogenic changes and interannual variability is much lower than for temperature. An application of the method to the present (around the year 2007) climate suggests that, as a geographical average over land areas excluding Antarctica, 8-9 months per year and 8-9 years per decade can be expected to be warmer than the median for 1971-2000. Along with the overall warming, a substantial increase in the frequency of warm extremes at the expense of cold extremes of monthly-to-annual temperature is expected.

  13. A simplified model for estimating population-scale energy impacts of building envelope air-tightening and mechanical ventilation retrofits

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Logue, Jennifer M.; Turner, William J. N.; Walker, Iain S.; Singer, Brett C.

    2015-01-19

    Changing the air exchange rate of a home (the sum of the infiltration and mechanical ventilation airflow rates) affects the annual thermal conditioning energy. Large-scale changes to air exchange rates of the housing stock can significantly alter the residential sector's energy consumption. However, the complexity of existing residential energy models is a barrier to the accurate quantification of the impact of policy changes on a state or national level. The Incremental Ventilation Energy (IVE) model developed in this study combines the output of simple air exchange models with a limited set of housing characteristics to estimate the associated change in energy demand of homes. The IVE model was designed specifically to enable modellers to use existing databases of housing characteristics to determine the impact of ventilation policy change on a population scale. The IVE model estimates of energy change when applied to US homes with limited parameterisation are shown to be comparable to the estimates of a well-validated, complex residential energy model.

  14. Modeling spatial patterns in soil arsenic to estimate natural baseline concentrations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Venteris, Erik R.; Basta, Nicolas T.; Bigham, Jerry M.; Rea, Ron

    2014-05-09

    ABSTRACT Arsenic in soil is an important public health concern. Toxicity guidelines and models based on laboratory studies (i.e., U.S. EPA’s Integrated Risk Information System) should consider natural soil As concentrations to avoid unnecessary remediation burdens on society. We used soil and stream sediment samples from the USGS National Geochemical Survey database to assess the spatial distribution of natural As in a 1.16E+5 km2 area. Samples were collected at 348 soil and 144 stream locations, providing approximately one sample for every 290 km2. Sample sites were selected to minimize the potential influence of anthropogenic inputs. Samples were processed using acid digestion of whole samples (concentrated HCl and ascorbic acid) and concentrations were measured using hydride-generation atomic absorption spectrometry. Soil As ranged from 2.0 to 45.6 mg kg-1. Geostatistical techniques were used to model and map the spatial variability of As. The mean and variance at unsampled locations were estimated using sequential Gaussian simulation. Five areas of elevated concentration (> the median of 10 mg kg-1) were identified and the relationships to geologic parent materials, glacial sedimentation patterns, and soil conditions interpreted. Our results showed As concentrations >10 mg kg-1 were common, and >20 mg kg-1 were not unusual for the central and west central portions of Ohio (USA). In contrast, concentrations <4 mg kg-1 were rare. Measured concentrations typically exceeded the soil As human generic screening levels of 0.39 mg/kg (1); the calculated value that corresponds to a cancer risk level of 1 in 1,000,000 for soil ingestion. Because the As content of Ohio soils is similar to many world soils, the USEPA generic soil screening level of 0.39 mg/kg is of little utility. A more useful and practical approach would be the uses of natural background levels. Regional soil As patterns based on geology and biogeochemistry and not political boundaries should be used

  15. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-10-05

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  16. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC3)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-10-05

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  17. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  18. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-12-13

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  19. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-08-11

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  20. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  1. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  2. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-10-05

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  3. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-08-11

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  4. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  5. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  6. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Nauru (ARMBE-ATM TWPC2)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-10-05

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  7. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  8. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC2)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-26

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  9. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-26

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  10. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC3)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-27

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  11. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1 V4)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-26

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  12. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC3)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-26

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  13. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-05-14

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  14. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2013-12-26

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  15. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC3)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  16. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  17. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM TWPC2)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  18. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  19. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-ATM TWPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  20. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1 V4)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  1. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Nauru (ARMBE-ATM TWPC2)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  2. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate From Darwin, AU (ARMBE-ATM...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data. Authors: ...

  3. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-ATM NSAC1...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data. Authors: ...

  4. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-ATM SGPC1...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The ARM CMBE-ATM Xie, McCoy, Klein et al. data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data. Authors: ...

  5. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-02-20

    The ARM CMBE-CLDRAD [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected cloud and radiation relevant quantities from ACRF observations

  6. Appendix A: GPRA08 benefits estimates: NEMS and MARKAL Model Baseline Cases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  7. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-CLDRAD [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected cloud and radiation relevant quantities from ACRF observations

  8. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  9. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  10. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  11. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  12. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  13. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  14. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  15. Load Modeling and State Estimation Methods for Power Distribution Systems: Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tom McDermott

    2010-05-07

    The project objective was to provide robust state estimation for distribution systems, comparable to what has been available on transmission systems for decades. This project used an algorithm called Branch Current State Estimation (BCSE), which is more effective than classical methods because it decouples the three phases of a distribution system, and uses branch current instead of node voltage as a state variable, which is a better match to current measurement.

  16. Multi-model Estimates of Intercontinental Source-Receptor Relationships for Ozone Pollution

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fiore, A M; Dentener, F J; Wild, O; Cuvelier, C; Schultz, M G; Hess, P; Textor, C; Schulz, M; Doherty, R; Horowitz, L W; MacKenzie, I A; Sanderson, M G; Shindell, D T; Stevenson, D S; Szopa, S; Van Dingenen, R; Zeng, G; Atherton, C; Bergmann, D; Bey, I; Carmichael, G; Collins, W J; Duncan, B N; Faluvegi, G; Folberth, G; Gauss, M; Gong, S; Hauglustaine, D; Holloway, T; Isaksen, I A; Jacob, D J; Jonson, J E; Kaminski, J W; Keating, T J; Lupu, A; Marmer, E; Montanaro, V; Park, R; Pitari, G; Pringle, K J; Pyle, J A; Schroeder, S; Vivanco, M G; Wind, P; Wojcik, G; Wu, S; Zuber, A

    2008-10-16

    Understanding the surface O{sub 3} response over a 'receptor' region to emission changes over a foreign 'source' region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O{sub 3}) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the spatial average surface O{sub 3} response over East Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA) and South Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O{sub 3} precursors, NO{sub x}, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. We find that the ensemble mean surface O{sub 3} concentrations in the base case (year 2001) simulation matches available observations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by >10 ppb during summer and early fall over the eastern U.S. and Japan. The sum of the O{sub 3} responses to NO{sub x}, CO, and NMVOC decreases separately is approximately equal to that from a simultaneous reduction of all precursors. We define a continental-scale 'import sensitivity' as the ratio of the O{sub 3} response to the 20% reductions in foreign versus 'domestic' (i.e., over the source region itself) emissions. For example, the combined reduction of emissions from the 3 foreign regions produces an ensemble spatial mean decrease of 0.6 ppb over EU (0.4 ppb from NA), less than the 0.8 ppb from the reduction of EU emissions, leading to an import sensitivity ratio of 0.7. The ensemble mean surface O{sub 3} response to foreign emissions is largest in spring and late fall (0.7-0.9 ppb decrease in all regions from the combined precursor reductions in the 3 foreign regions), with import sensitivities ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 (responses to domestic emission reductions are 0.8-1.6 ppb). High O{sub 3} values are much more sensitive to domestic emissions than to foreign emissions, as indicated by lower import sensitivities of 0.2 to 0.3 during July in EA, EU, and NA when O{sub 3} levels are typically highest

  17. SU-E-J-01: 3D Fluoroscopic Image Estimation From Patient-Specific 4DCBCT-Based Motion Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dhou, S; Hurwitz, M; Lewis, J; Mishra, P

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: 3D motion modeling derived from 4DCT images, taken days or weeks before treatment, cannot reliably represent patient anatomy on the day of treatment. We develop a method to generate motion models based on 4DCBCT acquired at the time of treatment, and apply the model to estimate 3D time-varying images (referred to as 3D fluoroscopic images). Methods: Motion models are derived through deformable registration between each 4DCBCT phase, and principal component analysis (PCA) on the resulting displacement vector fields. 3D fluoroscopic images are estimated based on cone-beam projections simulating kV treatment imaging. PCA coefficients are optimized iteratively through comparison of these cone-beam projections and projections estimated based on the motion model. Digital phantoms reproducing ten patient motion trajectories, and a physical phantom with regular and irregular motion derived from measured patient trajectories, are used to evaluate the method in terms of tumor localization, and the global voxel intensity difference compared to ground truth. Results: Experiments included: 1) assuming no anatomic or positioning changes between 4DCT and treatment time; and 2) simulating positioning and tumor baseline shifts at the time of treatment compared to 4DCT acquisition. 4DCBCT were reconstructed from the anatomy as seen at treatment time. In case 1) the tumor localization error and the intensity differences in ten patient were smaller using 4DCT-based motion model, possible due to superior image quality. In case 2) the tumor localization error and intensity differences were 2.85 and 0.15 respectively, using 4DCT-based motion models, and 1.17 and 0.10 using 4DCBCT-based models. 4DCBCT performed better due to its ability to reproduce daily anatomical changes. Conclusion: The study showed an advantage of 4DCBCT-based motion models in the context of 3D fluoroscopic images estimation. Positioning and tumor baseline shift uncertainties were mitigated by the 4DCBCT

  18. Model-based PSF and MTF estimation and validation from skeletal clinical CT images

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pakdel, Amirreza; Mainprize, James G.; Robert, Normand; Fialkov, Jeffery; Whyne, Cari M.

    2014-01-15

    Purpose: A method was developed to correct for systematic errors in estimating the thickness of thin bones due to image blurring in CT images using bone interfaces to estimate the point-spread-function (PSF). This study validates the accuracy of the PSFs estimated using said method from various clinical CT images featuring cortical bones. Methods: Gaussian PSFs, characterized by a different extent in the z (scan) direction than in the x and y directions were obtained using our method from 11 clinical CT scans of a cadaveric craniofacial skeleton. These PSFs were estimated for multiple combinations of scanning parameters and reconstruction methods. The actual PSF for each scan setting was measured using the slanted-slit technique within the image slice plane and the longitudinal axis. The Gaussian PSF and the corresponding modulation transfer function (MTF) are compared against the actual PSF and MTF for validation. Results: The differences (errors) between the actual and estimated full-width half-max (FWHM) of the PSFs were 0.09 0.05 and 0.14 0.11 mm for the xy and z axes, respectively. The overall errors in the predicted frequencies measured at 75%, 50%, 25%, 10%, and 5% MTF levels were 0.06 0.07 and 0.06 0.04 cycles/mm for the xy and z axes, respectively. The accuracy of the estimates was dependent on whether they were reconstructed with a standard kernel (Toshiba's FC68, mean error of 0.06 0.05 mm, MTF mean error 0.02 0.02 cycles/mm) or a high resolution bone kernel (Toshiba's FC81, PSF FWHM error 0.12 0.03 mm, MTF mean error 0.09 0.08 cycles/mm). Conclusions: The method is accurate in 3D for an image reconstructed using a standard reconstruction kernel, which conforms to the Gaussian PSF assumption but less accurate when using a high resolution bone kernel. The method is a practical and self-contained means of estimating the PSF in clinical CT images featuring cortical bones, without the need phantoms or any prior knowledge about the scanner

  19. Evaluation of the Effective Moisture Penetration Depth Model for Estimating Moisture Buffering in Buildings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woods, J.; Winkler, J.; Christensen, D.

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the effective moisture penetration depth (EMPD) model, and its suitability for building simulations. The EMPD model is a compromise between the simple, inaccurate effective capacitance approach and the complex, yet accurate, finite-difference approach. Two formulations of the EMPD model were examined, including the model used in the EnergyPlus building simulation software. An error in the EMPD model we uncovered was fixed with the release of EnergyPlus version 7.2, and the EMPD model in earlier versions of EnergyPlus should not be used.

  20. Developing a Cost Model and Methodology to Estimate Capital Costs for Thermal Energy Storage

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Glatzmaier, G.

    2011-12-01

    This report provides an update on the previous cost model for thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The update allows NREL to estimate the costs of such systems that are compatible with the higher operating temperatures associated with advanced power cycles. The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Program is to develop solar technologies that can make a significant contribution to the United States domestic energy supply. The recent DOE SunShot Initiative sets a very aggressive cost goal to reach a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh by 2020 with no incentives or credits for all solar-to-electricity technologies.1 As this goal is reached, the share of utility power generation that is provided by renewable energy sources is expected to increase dramatically. Because Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is currently the only renewable technology that is capable of integrating cost-effective energy storage, it is positioned to play a key role in providing renewable, dispatchable power to utilities as the share of power generation from renewable sources increases. Because of this role, future CSP plants will likely have as much as 15 hours of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) included in their design and operation. As such, the cost and performance of the TES system is critical to meeting the SunShot goal for solar technologies. The cost of electricity from a CSP plant depends strongly on its overall efficiency, which is a product of two components - the collection and conversion efficiencies. The collection efficiency determines the portion of incident solar energy that is captured as high-temperature thermal energy. The conversion efficiency determines the portion of thermal energy that is converted to electricity. The operating temperature at which the overall efficiency reaches its maximum depends on many factors, including material properties of the CSP plant components. Increasing the operating temperature of the power generation

  1. WAXS fat subtraction model to estimate differential linear scattering coefficients of fatless breast tissue: Phantom materials evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tang, Robert Y.; Laamanen, Curtis McDonald, Nancy; LeClair, Robert J.

    2014-05-15

    Purpose: Develop a method to subtract fat tissue contributions to wide-angle x-ray scatter (WAXS) signals of breast biopsies in order to estimate the differential linear scattering coefficients ?{sub s} of fatless tissue. Cancerous and fibroglandular tissue can then be compared independent of fat content. In this work phantom materials with known compositions were used to test the efficacy of the WAXS subtraction model. Methods: Each sample 5 mm in diameter and 5 mm thick was interrogated by a 50 kV 2.7 mm diameter beam for 3 min. A 25 mm{sup 2} by 1 mm thick CdTe detector allowed measurements of a portion of the ? = 6 scattered field. A scatter technique provided means to estimate the incident spectrum N{sub 0}(E) needed in the calculations of ?{sub s}[x(E, ?)] where x is the momentum transfer argument. Values of ?{sup }{sub s} for composite phantoms consisting of three plastic layers were estimated and compared to the values obtained via the sum ?{sup }{sub s}{sup ?}(x)=?{sub 1}?{sub s1}(x)+?{sub 2}?{sub s2}(x)+?{sub 3}?{sub s3}(x), where ?{sub i} is the fractional volume of the ith plastic component. Water, polystyrene, and a volume mixture of 0.6 water + 0.4 polystyrene labelled as fibphan were chosen to mimic cancer, fat, and fibroglandular tissue, respectively. A WAXS subtraction model was used to remove the polystyrene signal from tissue composite phantoms so that the ?{sub s} of water and fibphan could be estimated. Although the composite samples were layered, simulations were performed to test the models under nonlayered conditions. Results: The well known ?{sub s} signal of water was reproduced effectively between 0.5 < x < 1.6 nm{sup ?1}. The ?{sup }{sub s} obtained for the heterogeneous samples agreed with ?{sup }{sub s}{sup ?}. Polystyrene signals were subtracted successfully from composite phantoms. The simulations validated the usefulness of the WAXS models for nonlayered biopsies. Conclusions: The methodology to measure ?{sub s} of homogeneous

  2. Further evaluations of the CALMET/CALPUFF modeling system for the estimation of the fate of atmospheric nitrogen

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garrison, M.; Gill, S.; Sherwell, J.

    1999-07-01

    The CALMET/CALPUFF modeling system has been used to estimate nitrogen deposition in an area surrounding Baltimore and the northern portion of the Chesapeake Bay. Comprehensive NO{sub x} emissions inventories and meteorological data bases have been developed to conduct the modeling. A previous study reported on an evaluation of predicted non-ammonia, inorganic nitrogen wet deposition rates compared to measured rates at two NADP/NTN sites in Maryland. This paper presents the results of an expanded evaluation of the performance of the modeling system. Data collected at a total of 38 monitoring stations located in or near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, including NADP/NTN, CASTNET, and AIRS sites, have been used to conduct evaluations of the model's ability to predict concentrations of nitric acid, particulate nitrate, and NO{sub x} in addition to wet nitrate deposition. This expanded evaluation has allowed for the testing of additional model technical options in an attempt to improve the performance when compared to measured data. Results of this evaluation are expected to allow for better estimates of the impacts of nitrogen species formed from utility and other anthropogenic sources of NO{sub x} on the environment in Maryland.

  3. Appendix A - GPRA06 benefits estimates: MARKAL and NEMS model baseline cases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    NEMS is an integrated energy model of the U.S. energy system developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for forecasting and policy analysis purposes.

  4. Estimates of Radioxenon Released from Southern Hemisphere Medical isotope Production Facilities Using Measured Air Concentrations and Atmospheric Transport Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eslinger, Paul W.; Friese, Judah I.; Lowrey, Justin D.; McIntyre, Justin I.; Miley, Harry S.; Schrom, Brian T.

    2014-09-01

    Abstract The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive-Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty monitors the atmosphere for radioactive xenon leaking from underground nuclear explosions. Emissions from medical isotope production represent a challenging background signal when determining whether measured radioxenon in the atmosphere is associated with a nuclear explosion prohibited by the treaty. The Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO) operates a reactor and medical isotope production facility in Lucas Heights, Australia. This study uses two years of release data from the ANSTO medical isotope production facility and Xe-133 data from three IMS sampling locations to estimate the annual releases of Xe-133 from medical isotope production facilities in Argentina, South Africa, and Indonesia. Atmospheric dilution factors derived from a global atmospheric transport model were used in an optimization scheme to estimate annual release values by facility. The annual releases of about 6.8×1014 Bq from the ANSTO medical isotope production facility are in good agreement with the sampled concentrations at these three IMS sampling locations. Annual release estimates for the facility in South Africa vary from 1.2×1016 to 2.5×1016 Bq and estimates for the facility in Indonesia vary from 6.1×1013 to 3.6×1014 Bq. Although some releases from the facility in Argentina may reach these IMS sampling locations, the solution to the objective function is insensitive to the magnitude of those releases.

  5. Validation of the materials-process-product model (coal SNG). [Estimating method for comparing processes, changing assumptions and technology assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Albanese, A.; Bhagat, N.; Friend, L.; Lamontagne, J.; Pouder, R.; Vinjamuri, G.

    1980-03-01

    The use of coal as a source of high Btu gas is currently viewed as one possible means of supplementing dwindling natural gas supplies. While certain coal gasification processes have demonstrated technical feasibility, much uncertainty and inconsistency remains regarding the capital and operating costs of large scale coal conversion facilities; cost estimates may vary by as much as 50%. Studies conducted for the American Gas Association (AGA) and US Energy Research and Development Administration by C.F. Braun and Co. have defined technical specifications and cost guidelines for estimating costs of coal gasification technologies (AGA Guidelines). Based on the AGA Guidelines, Braun has also prepared cost estimates for selected coal gasification processes. Recent efforts by International Research and Technology Inc. (IR and T) have led to development of the Materials-Process-Product Model (MPPM), a comprehensive anaytic tool for evaluation of processes and costs for coal gasification and other coal conversion technologies. This validation of the MPPM presents a comparison of engineering and cost computation methodologies employed in the MPPM to those employed by Braun and comparison of MPPM results to Braun cost estimates. These comparisons indicate that the MPPM has the potential to be a valuable tool for assisting in the evaluation of coal gasification technologies.

  6. Estimation of net primary productivity using a process-based model in Gansu Province, Northwest China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Peijuan; Xie, Donghui; Zhou, Yuyu; E, Youhao; Zhu, Qijiang

    2014-01-16

    The ecological structure in the arid and semi-arid region of Northwest China with forest, grassland, agriculture, Gobi, and desert, is complex, vulnerable, and unstable. It is a challenging and sustaining job to keep the ecological structure and improve its ecological function. Net primary productivity (NPP) modeling can help to improve the understanding of the ecosystem, and therefore, improve ecological efficiency. The boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) model provides the possibility of NPP modeling in terrestrial ecosystem, but it has some limitations for application in arid and semi-arid regions. In this paper we improve the BEPS model, in terms of its water cycle by adding the processes of infiltration and surface runoff, to be applicable in arid and semi-arid regions. We model the NPP of forest, grass, and crop in Gansu Province as an experimental area in Northwest China in 2003 using the improved BEPS model, parameterized with moderate resolution remote sensing imageries and meteorological data. The modeled NPP using improved BEPS agrees better with the ground measurements in Qilian Mountain than that with original BEPS, with a higher R2 of 0.746 and lower root mean square error (RMSE) of 46.53 gC/m2 compared to R2 of 0.662 and RMSE of 60.19 gC/m2 from original BEPS. The modeled NPP of three vegetation types using improved BEPS show evident differences compared to that using original BEPS, with the highest difference ratio of 9.21% in forest and the lowest value of 4.29% in crop. The difference ratios between different vegetation types lie on the dependence on natural water sources. The modeled NPP in five geographic zones using improved BEPS are higher than those with original BEPS, with higher difference ratio in dry zones and lower value in wet zones.

  7. Testing of a model to estimate vapor concentration of various organic chemicals. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bakalyar, S.M.

    1990-01-01

    A model developed by Dr. Parker C. Reist to predict the build-up and decay rates of vapor concentrations following a chemical spill and clean-up was tested. The chemicals tested were: acetone, butyl acetate, ethyl acetate, hexane, methylene chloride, methyl ethyl ketone, and toluene. The evaporation rates of these chemicals were determined both by prediction, using a model developed by I. Kawamura and D. Mackay, and empirically and these rates were used in the Reist model. Chamber experiments were done to measure actual building-up and decay of vapor concentrations for simulated spills and simulated clean-up.

  8. Estimating Adult Chinook Salmon Exposure to Dissolved Gas Supersaturation Downstream of Hydroelectric Dams Using Telemetry and Hydrodynamic Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, Eric L.; Clabough, Tami S.; Peery, Christopher A.; Bennett, David H.; bjornn, Theodore C.; Caudill, Christopher C.; Richmond, Marshall C.

    2007-11-01

    Gas bubble disease (GBD) has been recognized for years as a potential problem for fishes in the Columbia River basin. GBD results from exposure to gas supersaturated water created by discharge over dam spillways. Spill typically creates a downstream plume of water with high total dissolved gas supersaturation (TDGS) that may be positioned along either shore or mid-channel, depending on dam operations. We obtained spatial data on fish migration paths and migration depths for 228 adult spring and summer Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, during 2000. Migration paths were compared to output from a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and dissolved gas model to estimate the potential for GBD expression and to test for behavioral avoidance of the high TDGS plume in unrestrained fish migrating under field conditions. Consistent with our previous estimates using single-location estimates of TDGS, we observed salmon swam sufficiently deep in the water column to receive complete hydrostatic compensation 95.9% of time spent in the Bonneville tailrace and 88.1% of the time in the Ice Harbor tailrace. The majority of depth uncompensated exposure occurred at TDGS levels > 115%. Adult spring and summer Chinook salmon tended to migrate near the shoreline. Adults moved into the high dissolved gas plume as often as they moved out of it downstream of Bonneville Dam, providing no evidence that adults moved laterally to avoid areas with elevated dissolved gas levels. The strong influence of dam operations on the position of the high-TDGS plume and shoreline-orientation behaviors of adults suggest that exposure of adult salmonids to high-TDGS conditions may be minimized using operational conditions that direct the plume mid-channel, particularly during periods of high discharge and spill. More generally, our approach illustrates the potential for combined field and modeling efforts to estimate the fine-scale environmental conditions encountered by fishes in natural and regulated rivers.

  9. Modeling the Energy Efficiency of Residential Attic Assemblies...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Modeling the Energy Efficiency of Residential Attic Assemblies Modeling the Energy Efficiency of Residential Attic Assemblies This graphic depicts all the modes of heat transfer ...

  10. Top-down estimate of methane emissions in California using a mesoscale inverse modeling technique: The South Coast Air Basin

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Cui, Yu Yan; Brioude, Jerome; McKeen, Stuart A.; Angevine, Wayne M.; Kim, Si -Wan; Frost, Gregory J.; Ahmadov, Ravan; Peischl, Jeff; Bousserez, Nicolas; Liu, Zhen; et al

    2015-07-28

    Methane (CH4) is the primary component of natural gas and has a larger global warming potential than CO2. Some recent top-down studies based on observations showed CH4 emissions in California's South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) were greater than those expected from population-apportioned bottom-up state inventories. In this study, we quantify CH4 emissions with an advanced mesoscale inverse modeling system at a resolution of 8 km × 8 km, using aircraft measurements in the SoCAB during the 2010 Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change campaign to constrain the inversion. To simulate atmospheric transport, we use the FLEXible PARTicle-Weather Research andmore » Forecasting (FLEXPART-WRF) Lagrangian particle dispersion model driven by three configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. We determine surface fluxes of CH4 using a Bayesian least squares method in a four-dimensional inversion. Simulated CH4 concentrations with the posterior emission inventory achieve much better correlations with the measurements (R2 = 0.7) than using the prior inventory (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Emission Inventory 2005, R2 = 0.5). The emission estimates for CH4 in the posterior, 46.3 ± 9.2 Mg CH4/h, are consistent with published observation-based estimates. Changes in the spatial distribution of CH4 emissions in the SoCAB between the prior and posterior inventories are discussed. Missing or underestimated emissions from dairies, the oil/gas system, and landfills in the SoCAB seem to explain the differences between the prior and posterior inventories. Furthermore, we estimate that dairies contributed 5.9 ± 1.7 Mg CH4/h and the two sectors of oil and gas industries (production and downstream) and landfills together contributed 39.6 ± 8.1 Mg CH4/h in the SoCAB.« less

  11. Zodiac: A Comprehensive Depiction of Genetic Interactions in Cancer by Integrating TCGA Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhu, Yitan; Xu, Yanxun; Helseth, Donald L.; Gulukota, Kamalakar; Yang, Shengjie; Pesce, Lorenzo L.; Mitra, Riten; Muller, Peter; Sengupta, Subhajit; Guo, Wentian; Foster, Ian; Bullock, JaQuel A.

    2015-08-01

    Background: Genetic interactions play a critical role in cancer development. Existing knowledge about cancer genetic interactions is incomplete, especially lacking evidences derived from large-scale cancer genomics data. The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) produces multimodal measurements across genomics and features of thousands of tumors, which provide an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the interplays of genes in cancer. Methods: We introduce Zodiac, a computational tool and resource to integrate existing knowledge about cancer genetic interactions with new information contained in TCGA data. It is an evolution of existing knowledge by treating it as a prior graph, integrating it with a likelihood model derived by Bayesian graphical model based on TCGA data, and producing a posterior graph as updated and data-enhanced knowledge. In short, Zodiac realizes “Prior interaction map + TCGA data → Posterior interaction map.” Results: Zodiac provides molecular interactions for about 200 million pairs of genes. All the results are generated from a big-data analysis and organized into a comprehensive database allowing customized search. In addition, Zodiac provides data processing and analysis tools that allow users to customize the prior networks and update the genetic pathways of their interest. Zodiac is publicly available at www.compgenome.org/ZODIAC. Conclusions: Zodiac recapitulates and extends existing knowledge of molecular interactions in cancer. It can be used to explore novel gene-gene interactions, transcriptional regulation, and other types of molecular interplays in cancer.

  12. Measuring and Modeling Fault Density for Plume-Fault Encounter Probability Estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, P.D.; Oldenburg, C.M.; Nicot, J.-P.

    2011-05-15

    Emission of carbon dioxide from fossil-fueled power generation stations contributes to global climate change. Storage of this carbon dioxide within the pores of geologic strata (geologic carbon storage) is one approach to mitigating the climate change that would otherwise occur. The large storage volume needed for this mitigation requires injection into brine-filled pore space in reservoir strata overlain by cap rocks. One of the main concerns of storage in such rocks is leakage via faults. In the early stages of site selection, site-specific fault coverages are often not available. This necessitates a method for using available fault data to develop an estimate of the likelihood of injected carbon dioxide encountering and migrating up a fault, primarily due to buoyancy. Fault population statistics provide one of the main inputs to calculate the encounter probability. Previous fault population statistics work is shown to be applicable to areal fault density statistics. This result is applied to a case study in the southern portion of the San Joaquin Basin with the result that the probability of a carbon dioxide plume from a previously planned injection had a 3% chance of encountering a fully seal offsetting fault.

  13. Evaluation of Blade-Strike Models for Estimating the Biological Performance of Large Kaplan Hydro Turbines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deng, Zhiqun; Carlson, Thomas J.; Ploskey, Gene R.; Richmond, Marshall C.

    2005-11-30

    BioIndex testing of hydro-turbines is sought as an analog to the hydraulic index testing conducted on hydro-turbines to optimize their power production efficiency. In BioIndex testing the goal is to identify those operations within the range identified by Index testing where the survival of fish passing through the turbine is maximized. BioIndex testing includes the immediate tailrace region as well as the turbine environment between a turbine's intake trashracks and the exit of its draft tube. The US Army Corps of Engineers and the Department of Energy have been evaluating a variety of means, such as numerical and physical turbine models, to investigate the quality of flow through a hydro-turbine and other aspects of the turbine environment that determine its safety for fish. The goal is to use these tools to develop hypotheses identifying turbine operations and predictions of their biological performance that can be tested at prototype scales. Acceptance of hypotheses would be the means for validation of new operating rules for the turbine tested that would be in place when fish were passing through the turbines. The overall goal of this project is to evaluate the performance of numerical blade strike models as a tool to aid development of testable hypotheses for bioIndexing. Evaluation of the performance of numerical blade strike models is accomplished by comparing predictions of fish mortality resulting from strike by turbine runner blades with observations made using live test fish at mainstem Columbia River Dams and with other predictions of blade strike made using observations of beads passing through a 1:25 scale physical turbine model.

  14. Clouds and more: ARM climate modeling best estimate data: A new data product for climate studies

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Xie, Shaocheng; McCoy, Renata B.; Klein, Stephen A.; Cederwall, Richard T.; Wiscombe, Warren J.; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Gaustad, Krista L.; Golaz, Jean -Christophe; Hall, Stephanie D.; Jensen, Michael P.; et al

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program (www.arm.gov) was created in 1989 to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation atmosphere. Here, a central activity is the acquisition of detailed observations of clouds and radiation, as well as related atmospheric variables for climate model evaluation and improvement.

  15. Estimating Demand Response Load Impacts: Evaluation of BaselineLoad Models for Non-Residential Buildings in California

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coughlin, Katie; Piette, Mary Ann; Goldman, Charles; Kiliccote,Sila

    2008-01-01

    Both Federal and California state policymakers areincreasingly interested in developing more standardized and consistentapproaches to estimate and verify the load impacts of demand responseprograms and dynamic pricing tariffs. This study describes a statisticalanalysis of the performance of different models used to calculate thebaseline electric load for commercial buildings participating in ademand-response (DR) program, with emphasis onthe importance of weathereffects. During a DR event, a variety of adjustments may be made tobuilding operation, with the goal of reducing the building peak electricload. In order to determine the actual peak load reduction, an estimateof what the load would have been on the day of the event without any DRactions is needed. This baseline load profile (BLP) is key to accuratelyassessing the load impacts from event-based DR programs and may alsoimpact payment settlements for certain types of DR programs. We testedseven baseline models on a sample of 33 buildings located in California.These models can be loosely categorized into two groups: (1) averagingmethods, which use some linear combination of hourly load values fromprevious days to predict the load on the event, and (2) explicit weathermodels, which use a formula based on local hourly temperature to predictthe load. The models were tested both with and without morningadjustments, which use data from the day of the event to adjust theestimated BLP up or down.Key findings from this study are: - The accuracyof the BLP model currently used by California utilities to estimate loadreductions in several DR programs (i.e., hourly usage in highest 3 out of10 previous days) could be improved substantially if a morning adjustmentfactor were applied for weather-sensitive commercial and institutionalbuildings. - Applying a morning adjustment factor significantly reducesthe bias and improves the accuracy of all BLP models examined in oursample of buildings. - For buildings with low load

  16. Adjusting lidar-derived digital terrain models in coastal marshes based on estimated aboveground biomass density

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Medeiros, Stephen; Hagen, Scott; Weishampel, John; Angelo, James

    2015-03-25

    Digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from airborne lidar are traditionally unreliable in coastal salt marshes due to the inability of the laser to penetrate the dense grasses and reach the underlying soil. To that end, we present a novel processing methodology that uses ASTER Band 2 (visible red), an interferometric SAR (IfSAR) digital surface model, and lidar-derived canopy height to classify biomass density using both a three-class scheme (high, medium and low) and a two-class scheme (high and low). Elevation adjustments associated with these classes using both median and quartile approaches were applied to adjust lidar-derived elevation values closer tomore » true bare earth elevation. The performance of the method was tested on 229 elevation points in the lower Apalachicola River Marsh. The two-class quartile-based adjusted DEM produced the best results, reducing the RMS error in elevation from 0.65 m to 0.40 m, a 38% improvement. The raw mean errors for the lidar DEM and the adjusted DEM were 0.61 ± 0.24 m and 0.32 ± 0.24 m, respectively, thereby reducing the high bias by approximately 49%.« less

  17. Adjusting lidar-derived digital terrain models in coastal marshes based on estimated aboveground biomass density

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Medeiros, Stephen; Hagen, Scott; Weishampel, John; Angelo, James

    2015-03-25

    Digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from airborne lidar are traditionally unreliable in coastal salt marshes due to the inability of the laser to penetrate the dense grasses and reach the underlying soil. To that end, we present a novel processing methodology that uses ASTER Band 2 (visible red), an interferometric SAR (IfSAR) digital surface model, and lidar-derived canopy height to classify biomass density using both a three-class scheme (high, medium and low) and a two-class scheme (high and low). Elevation adjustments associated with these classes using both median and quartile approaches were applied to adjust lidar-derived elevation values closer to true bare earth elevation. The performance of the method was tested on 229 elevation points in the lower Apalachicola River Marsh. The two-class quartile-based adjusted DEM produced the best results, reducing the RMS error in elevation from 0.65 m to 0.40 m, a 38% improvement. The raw mean errors for the lidar DEM and the adjusted DEM were 0.61 ± 0.24 m and 0.32 ± 0.24 m, respectively, thereby reducing the high bias by approximately 49%.

  18. Estimating Methods

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    Based on the project's scope, the purpose of the estimate, and the availability of estimating resources, the estimator can choose one or a combination of techniques when estimating an activity or project. Estimating methods, estimating indirect and direct costs, and other estimating considerations are discussed in this chapter.

  19. Lung motion estimation using dynamic point shifting: An innovative model based on a robust point matching algorithm

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yi, Jianbing; Yang, Xuan Li, Yan-Ran; Chen, Guoliang

    2015-10-15

    Purpose: Image-guided radiotherapy is an advanced 4D radiotherapy technique that has been developed in recent years. However, respiratory motion causes significant uncertainties in image-guided radiotherapy procedures. To address these issues, an innovative lung motion estimation model based on a robust point matching is proposed in this paper. Methods: An innovative robust point matching algorithm using dynamic point shifting is proposed to estimate patient-specific lung motion during free breathing from 4D computed tomography data. The correspondence of the landmark points is determined from the Euclidean distance between the landmark points and the similarity between the local images that are centered at points at the same time. To ensure that the points in the source image correspond to the points in the target image during other phases, the virtual target points are first created and shifted based on the similarity between the local image centered at the source point and the local image centered at the virtual target point. Second, the target points are shifted by the constrained inverse function mapping the target points to the virtual target points. The source point set and shifted target point set are used to estimate the transformation function between the source image and target image. Results: The performances of the authors’ method are evaluated on two publicly available DIR-lab and POPI-model lung datasets. For computing target registration errors on 750 landmark points in six phases of the DIR-lab dataset and 37 landmark points in ten phases of the POPI-model dataset, the mean and standard deviation by the authors’ method are 1.11 and 1.11 mm, but they are 2.33 and 2.32 mm without considering image intensity, and 1.17 and 1.19 mm with sliding conditions. For the two phases of maximum inhalation and maximum exhalation in the DIR-lab dataset with 300 landmark points of each case, the mean and standard deviation of target registration errors on the

  20. Estimation and modeling of coal pore accessibility using small angle neutron scattering

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Rui; Liu, Shimin; Bahadur, Jitendra; Elsworth, Derek; Melnichenko, Yuri; He, Lilin; Wang, Yi

    2015-09-04

    Gas diffusion in coal is controlled by nano-structure of the pores. The interconnectivity of pores not only determines the dynamics of gas transport in the coal matrix but also influences the mechanical strength. In this study, small angle neutron scattering (SANS) was employed to quantify pore accessibility for two coal samples, one of sub-bituminous rank and the other of anthracite rank. Moreover, a theoretical pore accessibility model was proposed based on scattering intensities under both vacuum and zero average contrast (ZAC) conditions. Our results show that scattering intensity decreases with increasing gas pressure using deuterated methane (CD4) at low Qmore » values for both coals. Pores smaller than 40 nm in radius are less accessible for anthracite than sub-bituminous coal. On the contrary, when the pore radius is larger than 40 nm, the pore accessibility of anthracite becomes larger than that of sub-bituminous coal. Only 20% of pores are accessible to CD4 for anthracite and 37% for sub-bituminous coal, where the pore radius is 16 nm. For these two coals, pore accessibility and pore radius follows a power-law relationship.« less

  1. Top-down estimate of methane emissions in California using a mesoscale inverse modeling technique: The South Coast Air Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cui, Yu Yan; Brioude, Jerome; McKeen, Stuart A.; Angevine, Wayne M.; Kim, Si -Wan; Frost, Gregory J.; Ahmadov, Ravan; Peischl, Jeff; Bousserez, Nicolas; Liu, Zhen; Ryerson, Thomas B.; Wofsy, Steve C.; Santoni, Gregory W.; Kort, Eric A.; Fischer, Marc L.; Trainer, Michael

    2015-07-28

    Methane (CH4) is the primary component of natural gas and has a larger global warming potential than CO2. Some recent top-down studies based on observations showed CH4 emissions in California's South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) were greater than those expected from population-apportioned bottom-up state inventories. In this study, we quantify CH4 emissions with an advanced mesoscale inverse modeling system at a resolution of 8 km 8 km, using aircraft measurements in the SoCAB during the 2010 Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change campaign to constrain the inversion. To simulate atmospheric transport, we use the FLEXible PARTicle-Weather Research and Forecasting (FLEXPART-WRF) Lagrangian particle dispersion model driven by three configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. We determine surface fluxes of CH4 using a Bayesian least squares method in a four-dimensional inversion. Simulated CH4 concentrations with the posterior emission inventory achieve much better correlations with the measurements (R2 = 0.7) than using the prior inventory (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Emission Inventory 2005, R2 = 0.5). The emission estimates for CH4 in the posterior, 46.3 9.2 Mg CH4/h, are consistent with published observation-based estimates. Changes in the spatial distribution of CH4 emissions in the SoCAB between the prior and posterior inventories are discussed. Missing or underestimated emissions from dairies, the oil/gas system, and landfills in the SoCAB seem to explain the differences between the prior and posterior inventories. Furthermore, we estimate that dairies contributed 5.9 1.7 Mg CH4/h and the two sectors of oil and gas industries (production and downstream) and landfills together contributed 39.6 8.1 Mg CH4/h in the SoCAB.

  2. Top-down estimate of methane emissions in California using a mesoscale inverse modeling technique: The South Coast Air Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cui, Yu Yan; Brioude, Jerome; McKeen, Stuart A.; Angevine, Wayne M.; Kim, Si -Wan; Frost, Gregory J.; Ahmadov, Ravan; Peischl, Jeff; Bousserez, Nicolas; Liu, Zhen; Ryerson, Thomas B.; Wofsy, Steve C.; Santoni, Gregory W.; Kort, Eric A.; Fischer, Marc L.; Trainer, Michael

    2015-07-28

    Methane (CH4) is the primary component of natural gas and has a larger global warming potential than CO2. Some recent top-down studies based on observations showed CH4 emissions in California's South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) were greater than those expected from population-apportioned bottom-up state inventories. In this study, we quantify CH4 emissions with an advanced mesoscale inverse modeling system at a resolution of 8 km × 8 km, using aircraft measurements in the SoCAB during the 2010 Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change campaign to constrain the inversion. To simulate atmospheric transport, we use the FLEXible PARTicle-Weather Research and Forecasting (FLEXPART-WRF) Lagrangian particle dispersion model driven by three configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. We determine surface fluxes of CH4 using a Bayesian least squares method in a four-dimensional inversion. Simulated CH4 concentrations with the posterior emission inventory achieve much better correlations with the measurements (R2 = 0.7) than using the prior inventory (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Emission Inventory 2005, R2 = 0.5). The emission estimates for CH4 in the posterior, 46.3 ± 9.2 Mg CH4/h, are consistent with published observation-based estimates. Changes in the spatial distribution of CH4 emissions in the SoCAB between the prior and posterior inventories are discussed. Missing or underestimated emissions from dairies, the oil/gas system, and landfills in the SoCAB seem to explain the differences between the prior and posterior inventories. Furthermore, we estimate that dairies contributed 5.9 ± 1.7 Mg CH4/h and the two sectors of oil and gas industries (production and downstream) and landfills together contributed 39.6 ± 8.1 Mg CH4/h in the SoCAB.

  3. Estimating Policy-Driven Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trajectories in California: The California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greenblatt, Jeffery B.

    2013-10-10

    , targets were less well-defined, but while all three scenarios were able to make significant reductions in ROG, NOx and PM2.5 both statewide and in the two regional air basins, they may nonetheless fall short of what will be required by future federal standards. Specifically, in Scenario 1, regional NOx emissions are approximately three times the estimated targets for both 2023 and 2032, and in Scenarios 2 and 3, NOx emissions are approximately twice the estimated targets. Further work is required in this area, including detailed regional air quality modeling, in order to determine likely pathways for attaining these stringent targets.

  4. Poster — Thur Eve — 44: Linearization of Compartmental Models for More Robust Estimates of Regional Hemodynamic, Metabolic and Functional Parameters using DCE-CT/PET Imaging

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blais, AR; Dekaban, M; Lee, T-Y

    2014-08-15

    Quantitative analysis of dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) data usually involves minimizing a cost function with nonlinear regression, wherein the choice of starting parameter values and the presence of local minima affect the bias and variability of the estimated kinetic parameters. These nonlinear methods can also require lengthy computation time, making them unsuitable for use in clinical settings. Kinetic modeling of PET aims to estimate the rate parameter k{sub 3}, which is the binding affinity of the tracer to a biological process of interest and is highly susceptible to noise inherent in PET image acquisition. We have developed linearized kinetic models for kinetic analysis of dynamic contrast enhanced computed tomography (DCE-CT)/PET imaging, including a 2-compartment model for DCE-CT and a 3-compartment model for PET. Use of kinetic parameters estimated from DCE-CT can stabilize the kinetic analysis of dynamic PET data, allowing for more robust estimation of k{sub 3}. Furthermore, these linearized models are solved with a non-negative least squares algorithm and together they provide other advantages including: 1) only one possible solution and they do not require a choice of starting parameter values, 2) parameter estimates are comparable in accuracy to those from nonlinear models, 3) significantly reduced computational time. Our simulated data show that when blood volume and permeability are estimated with DCE-CT, the bias of k{sub 3} estimation with our linearized model is 1.97 ± 38.5% for 1,000 runs with a signal-to-noise ratio of 10. In summary, we have developed a computationally efficient technique for accurate estimation of k{sub 3} from noisy dynamic PET data.

  5. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Rockhold, Mark L.; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2007-07-30

    This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model based on its apparent consistency with available knowledge and data. Posterior model probabilities are computed and parameter uncertainty is estimated by calibrating each model to observed system behavior; prior parameter estimates are optionally included. Scenario uncertainty is represented as a discrete set of alternative future conditions affecting boundary conditions, source/sink terms, or other aspects of the models, with associated prior scenario probabilities. A joint assessment of uncertainty results from combining model predictions computed under each scenario using as weight the posterior model and prior scenario probabilities. The uncertainty methodology was applied to modeling of groundwater flow and uranium transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Eight alternative models representing uncertainty in the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties as well as the temporal variability were considered. Two scenarios represent alternative future behavior of the Columbia River adjacent to the site were considered. The scenario alternatives were implemented in the models through the boundary conditions. Results demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to large-scale, detailed groundwater flow

  6. A Bayesian Modeling Approach for Estimation of a Shape-Free Groundwater Age Distribution using Multiple Tracers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Massoudieh, Arash; Visser, Ate; Sharifi, Soroosh; Broers, Hans Peter

    2013-10-15

    The mixing of groundwaters with different ages in aquifers, groundwater age is more appropriately represented by a distribution rather than a scalar number. To infer a groundwater age distribution from environmental tracers, a mathematical form is often assumed for the shape of the distribution and the parameters of the mathematical distribution are estimated using deterministic or stochastic inverse methods. We found that the prescription of the mathematical form limits the exploration of the age distribution to the shapes that can be described by the selected distribution. In this paper, the use of freeform histograms as groundwater age distributions is evaluated. A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is used to estimate the fraction of groundwater in each histogram bin. This method was able to capture the shape of a hypothetical gamma distribution from the concentrations of four age tracers. The number of bins that can be considered in this approach is limited based on the number of tracers available. The histogram method was also tested on tracer data sets from Holten (The Netherlands; 3H, 3He, 85Kr, 39Ar) and the La Selva Biological Station (Costa-Rica; SF 6, CFCs, 3H, 4He and 14C), and compared to a number of mathematical forms. According to standard Bayesian measures of model goodness, the best mathematical distribution performs better than the histogram distributions in terms of the ability to capture the observed tracer data relative to their complexity. Among the histogram distributions, the four bin histogram performs better in most of the cases. The Monte Carlo simulations showed strong correlations in the posterior estimates of bin contributions, indicating that these bins cannot be well constrained using the available age tracers. The fact that mathematical forms overall perform better than the freeform histogram does not undermine the benefit of the

  7. A Bayesian Modeling Approach for Estimation of a Shape-Free Groundwater Age Distribution using Multiple Tracers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Massoudieh, Arash; Visser, Ate; Sharifi, Soroosh; Broers, Hans Peter

    2013-10-15

    The mixing of groundwaters with different ages in aquifers, groundwater age is more appropriately represented by a distribution rather than a scalar number. To infer a groundwater age distribution from environmental tracers, a mathematical form is often assumed for the shape of the distribution and the parameters of the mathematical distribution are estimated using deterministic or stochastic inverse methods. We found that the prescription of the mathematical form limits the exploration of the age distribution to the shapes that can be described by the selected distribution. In this paper, the use of freeform histograms as groundwater age distributions is evaluated.more » A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is used to estimate the fraction of groundwater in each histogram bin. This method was able to capture the shape of a hypothetical gamma distribution from the concentrations of four age tracers. The number of bins that can be considered in this approach is limited based on the number of tracers available. The histogram method was also tested on tracer data sets from Holten (The Netherlands; 3H, 3He, 85Kr, 39Ar) and the La Selva Biological Station (Costa-Rica; SF 6, CFCs, 3H, 4He and 14C), and compared to a number of mathematical forms. According to standard Bayesian measures of model goodness, the best mathematical distribution performs better than the histogram distributions in terms of the ability to capture the observed tracer data relative to their complexity. Among the histogram distributions, the four bin histogram performs better in most of the cases. The Monte Carlo simulations showed strong correlations in the posterior estimates of bin contributions, indicating that these bins cannot be well constrained using the available age tracers. The fact that mathematical forms overall perform better than the freeform histogram does not undermine the benefit of the freeform approach, especially for the cases where a larger amount of observed data is

  8. Multi-scale geospatial agroecosystem modeling: a case study on the influence of soil data resolution on carbon budget estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Manowitz, D.; Zhao, Kaiguang; LeDuc, Stephen D.; Xu, Min; Xiong, Wei; Zhang, Aiping; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.; West, Tristram O.; Post, W. M.

    2014-05-01

    The development of effective measures to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration and mitigate negative impacts of climate change requires accurate quantification of the spatial variation and magnitude of the terrestrial carbon (C) flux. However, the spatial pattern and strength of terrestrial C sinks and sources remain uncertain. In this study, we designed a spatially-explicit agroecosystem modeling system by integrating the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model with multiple sources of geospatial and surveyed datasets (including crop type map, elevation, climate forcing, fertilizer application, tillage type and distribution, and crop planting and harvesting date), and applied it to examine the sensitivity of cropland C flux simulations to two widely used soil databases (i.e. State Soil Geographic-STATSGO of a scale of 1:250,000 and Soil Survey Geographic-SSURGO of a scale of 1:24,000) in Iowa, USA. To efficiently execute numerous EPIC runs resulting from the use of high resolution spatial data (56m), we developed a parallelized version of EPIC. Both STATSGO and SSURGO led to similar simulations of crop yields and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) estimates at the State level. However, substantial differences were observed at the county and sub-county (grid) levels. In general, the fine resolution SSURGO data outperformed the coarse resolution STATSGO data for county-scale crop-yield simulation, and within STATSGO, the area-weighted approach provided more accurate results. Further analysis showed that spatial distribution and magnitude of simulated NEP were more sensitive to the resolution difference between SSURGO and STATSGO at the county or grid scale. For over 60% of the cropland areas in Iowa, the deviations between STATSGO- and SSURGO-derived NEP were larger than 1MgCha(-1)yr(-1), or about half of the average cropland NEP, highlighting the significant uncertainty in spatial distribution and magnitude of simulated C fluxes resulting from

  9. Carbonaceous aerosols recorded in a southeastern Tibetan glacier: analysis of temporal variations and model estimates of sources and radiative forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Mo; Xu, B.; Cao, J.; Tie, X.; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Rudong; Qian, Yun; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhao, Shuyu; Wu, Guangjian; Zhao, Huabiao; Joswiak, Daniel R.; Li, Jiule; Xie, Ying

    2015-02-02

    High temporal resolution measurements of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) covering the time period of 1956–2006 in an ice core over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau show a distinct seasonal dependence of BC and OC with higher respective concentrations but a lower OC / BC ratio in the non-monsoon season than during the summer monsoon. We use a global aerosol-climate model, in which BC emitted from different source regions can be explicitly tracked, to quantify BC source–receptor relationships between four Asian source regions and the southeastern Tibetan Plateau as a receptor. The model results show that South Asia has the largest contribution to the present-day (1996–2005) mean BC deposition at the ice-core drilling site during the non-monsoon season (October to May) (81%) and all year round (74%), followed by East Asia (14% to the non-monsoon mean and 21% to the annual mean). The ice-core record also indicates stable and relatively low BC and OC deposition fluxes from the late 1950s to 1980, followed by an overall increase to recent years. This trend is consistent with the BC and OC emission inventories and the fuel consumption of South Asia (as the primary contributor to annual mean BC deposition). Moreover, the increasing trend of the OC / BC ratio since the early 1990s indicates a growing contribution of coal combustion and/or biomass burning to the emissions. The estimated radiative forcing induced by BC and OC impurities in snow has increased since 1980, suggesting an increasing potential influence of carbonaceous aerosols on the Tibetan glacier melting and the availability of water resources in the surrounding regions. Our study indicates that more attention to OC is merited because of its non-negligible light absorption and the recent rapid increases evident in the ice-core record.

  10. Carbonaceous aerosols recorded in a southeastern Tibetan glacier: analysis of temporal variations and model estimates of sources and radiative forcing

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Wang, Mo; Xu, B.; Cao, J.; Tie, X.; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Rudong; Qian, Yun; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhao, Shuyu; Wu, Guangjian; et al

    2015-02-02

    High temporal resolution measurements of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) covering the time period of 1956–2006 in an ice core over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau show a distinct seasonal dependence of BC and OC with higher respective concentrations but a lower OC / BC ratio in the non-monsoon season than during the summer monsoon. We use a global aerosol-climate model, in which BC emitted from different source regions can be explicitly tracked, to quantify BC source–receptor relationships between four Asian source regions and the southeastern Tibetan Plateau as a receptor. The model results show that South Asia hasmore » the largest contribution to the present-day (1996–2005) mean BC deposition at the ice-core drilling site during the non-monsoon season (October to May) (81%) and all year round (74%), followed by East Asia (14% to the non-monsoon mean and 21% to the annual mean). The ice-core record also indicates stable and relatively low BC and OC deposition fluxes from the late 1950s to 1980, followed by an overall increase to recent years. This trend is consistent with the BC and OC emission inventories and the fuel consumption of South Asia (as the primary contributor to annual mean BC deposition). Moreover, the increasing trend of the OC / BC ratio since the early 1990s indicates a growing contribution of coal combustion and/or biomass burning to the emissions. The estimated radiative forcing induced by BC and OC impurities in snow has increased since 1980, suggesting an increasing potential influence of carbonaceous aerosols on the Tibetan glacier melting and the availability of water resources in the surrounding regions. Our study indicates that more attention to OC is merited because of its non-negligible light absorption and the recent rapid increases evident in the ice-core record.« less

  11. Glass Property Models and Constraints for Estimating the Glass to be Produced at Hanford by Implementing Current Advanced Glass Formulation Efforts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vienna, John D.; Kim, Dong-Sang; Skorski, Daniel C.; Matyas, Josef

    2013-07-31

    Recent glass formulation and melter testing data have suggested that significant increases in waste loading in HLW and LAW glasses are possible over current system planning estimates. The data (although limited in some cases) were evaluated to determine a set of constraints and models that could be used to estimate the maximum loading of specific waste compositions in glass. It is recommended that these models and constraints be used to estimate the likely HLW and LAW glass volumes that would result if the current glass formulation studies are successfully completed. It is recognized that some of the models are preliminary in nature and will change in the coming years. Plus the models do not currently address the prediction uncertainties that would be needed before they could be used in plant operations. The models and constraints are only meant to give an indication of rough glass volumes and are not intended to be used in plant operation or waste form qualification activities. A current research program is in place to develop the data, models, and uncertainty descriptions for that purpose. A fundamental tenet underlying the research reported in this document is to try to be less conservative than previous studies when developing constraints for estimating the glass to be produced by implementing current advanced glass formulation efforts. The less conservative approach documented herein should allow for the estimate of glass masses that may be realized if the current efforts in advanced glass formulations are completed over the coming years and are as successful as early indications suggest they may be. Because of this approach there is an unquantifiable uncertainty in the ultimate glass volume projections due to model prediction uncertainties that has to be considered along with other system uncertainties such as waste compositions and amounts to be immobilized, split factors between LAW and HLW, etc.

  12. Source Term Estimation of Radioxenon Released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Reactors Using Measured Air Concentrations and Atmospheric Transport Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eslinger, Paul W.; Biegalski, S.; Bowyer, Ted W.; Cooper, Matthew W.; Haas, Derek A.; Hayes, James C.; Hoffman, Ian; Korpach, E.; Yi, Jing; Miley, Harry S.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Ungar, R. Kurt; White, Brian; Woods, Vincent T.

    2014-01-01

    Systems designed to monitor airborne radionuclides released from underground nuclear explosions detected radioactive fallout from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in March 2011. Atmospheric transport modeling (ATM) of plumes of noble gases and particulates were performed soon after the accident to determine plausible detection locations of any radioactive releases to the atmosphere. We combine sampling data from multiple International Modeling System (IMS) locations in a new way to estimate the magnitude and time sequence of the releases. Dilution factors from the modeled plume at five different detection locations were combined with 57 atmospheric concentration measurements of 133-Xe taken from March 18 to March 23 to estimate the source term. This approach estimates that 59% of the 1.24×1019 Bq of 133-Xe present in the reactors at the time of the earthquake was released to the atmosphere over a three day period. Source term estimates from combinations of detection sites have lower spread than estimates based on measurements at single detection sites. Sensitivity cases based on data from four or more detection locations bound the source term between 35% and 255% of available xenon inventory.

  13. Second cancer incidence risk estimates using BEIR VII models for standard and complex external beam radiotherapy for early breast cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Donovan, E. M.; James, H.; Bonora, M.; Yarnold, J. R.; Evans, P. M.

    2012-10-15

    contralateral breast doses and LAR were comparable to WBRT, despite their added complexity. The smaller irradiated volume of the ABPI plan contributed to a halving of LAR for contralateral breast compared with the other plan types. Daily image guided radiotherapy (IGRT) for a left breast protocol using kilovoltage CBCT contributed <10% to LAR for the majority of organs, and did not exceed 22% of total organ dose. Conclusions: Phantom measurements and calculations of LAR from the BEIR VII models predict that complex breast radiotherapy techniques do not increase the theoretical risk of second cancer incidence for organs distant from the treated breast, or the contralateral breast where appropriate plan constraints are applied. Complex SIB treatments are predicted to increase the risk of second cancer incidence in the lungs compared to standard whole breast radiotherapy; this is outweighed by the threefold reduction in 5 yr local recurrence risk for patients of high risk of recurrence, and young age, from the use of radiotherapy. APBI may have a favorable impact on risk of second cancer in the contralateral breast and lung for older patients at low risk of recurrence. Intensive use of IGRTincreased the estimated values of LAR but these are dominated by the effect of the dose from the radiotherapy, and any increase in LAR from IGRT is much lower than the models' uncertainties.

  14. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Darwin, AU (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-08-10

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  15. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-02-07

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  16. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Darwin, AU (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  17. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Manus Island, PNG (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1 V2.1)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  18. A combined method to estimate parameters of the thalamocortical model from a heavily noise-corrupted time series of action potential

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Ruofan; Wang, Jiang; Deng, Bin Liu, Chen; Wei, Xile; Tsang, K. M.; Chan, W. L.

    2014-03-15

    A combined method composing of the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and the synchronization-based method is proposed for estimating electrophysiological variables and parameters of a thalamocortical (TC) neuron model, which is commonly used for studying Parkinson's disease for its relay role of connecting the basal ganglia and the cortex. In this work, we take into account the condition when only the time series of action potential with heavy noise are available. Numerical results demonstrate that not only this method can estimate model parameters from the extracted time series of action potential successfully but also the effect of its estimation is much better than the only use of the UKF or synchronization-based method, with a higher accuracy and a better robustness against noise, especially under the severe noise conditions. Considering the rather important role of TC neuron in the normal and pathological brain functions, the exploration of the method to estimate the critical parameters could have important implications for the study of its nonlinear dynamics and further treatment of Parkinson's disease.

  19. Estimated United States Transportation Energy Use 2005

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, C A; Simon, A J; Belles, R D

    2011-11-09

    A flow chart depicting energy flow in the transportation sector of the United States economy in 2005 has been constructed from publicly available data and estimates of national energy use patterns. Approximately 31,000 trillion British Thermal Units (trBTUs) of energy were used throughout the United States in transportation activities. Vehicles used in these activities include automobiles, motorcycles, trucks, buses, airplanes, rail, and ships. The transportation sector is powered primarily by petroleum-derived fuels (gasoline, diesel and jet fuel). Biomass-derived fuels, electricity and natural gas-derived fuels are also used. The flow patterns represent a comprehensive systems view of energy used within the transportation sector.

  20. Reservoir Temperature Estimator

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-12-08

    The Reservoir Temperature Estimator (RTEst) is a program that can be used to estimate deep geothermal reservoir temperature and chemical parameters such as CO2 fugacity based on the water chemistry of shallower, cooler reservoir fluids. This code uses the plugin features provided in The Geochemist’s Workbench (Bethke and Yeakel, 2011) and interfaces with the model-independent parameter estimation code Pest (Doherty, 2005) to provide for optimization of the estimated parameters based on the minimization of themore » weighted sum of squares of a set of saturation indexes from a user-provided mineral assemblage.« less

  1. PROJECT PROFILE: Improving PV performance Estimates in the System Advisor Model with Component and System Reliability Metrics

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This project will improve the forecasting of lifetime PV system performance as well as operations and maintenance costs by incorporating the Photovoltaic Reliability and Performance Model (PV-RPM) developed by Sandia into the widely-used Solar Advisor Model (SAM) software platform.

  2. Electrochemical state and internal variables estimation using a reduced-order physics-based model of a lithium-ion cell and an extended Kalman filter

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stetzel, KD; Aldrich, LL; Trimboli, MS; Plett, GL

    2015-03-15

    This paper addresses the problem of estimating the present value of electrochemical internal variables in a lithium-ion cell in real time, using readily available measurements of cell voltage, current, and temperature. The variables that can be estimated include any desired set of reaction flux and solid and electrolyte potentials and concentrations at any set of one-dimensional spatial locations, in addition to more standard quantities such as state of charge. The method uses an extended Kalman filter along with a one-dimensional physics-based reduced-order model of cell dynamics. Simulations show excellent and robust predictions having dependable error bounds for most internal variables. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Concentrating Solar Deployment System (CSDS) -- A New Model for Estimating U.S. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Market Potential: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blair, N.; Mehos, M.; Short, W.; Heimiller, D.

    2006-04-01

    This paper presents the Concentrating Solar Deployment System Model (CSDS). CSDS is a multiregional, multitime-period, Geographic Information System (GIS), and linear programming model of capacity expansion in the electric sector of the United States. CSDS is designed to address the principal market and policy issues related to the penetration of concentrating solar power (CSP) electric-sector technologies. This paper discusses the current structure, capabilities, and assumptions of the model. Additionally, results are presented for the impact of continued research and development (R&D) spending, an extension to the investment tax credit (ITC), and use of a production tax credit (PTC). CSDS is an extension of the Wind Deployment System (WinDS) model created at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). While WinDS examines issues related to wind, CSDS is an extension to analyze similar issues for CSP applications. Specifically, a detailed representation of parabolic trough systems with thermal storage has been developed within the existing structure.

  4. Aerosol single-scattering albedo over the global oceans: Comparing PARASOL retrievals with AERONET, OMI, and AeroCom models estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lacagnina, Carlo; Hasekamp, Otto P.; Bian, Huisheng; Curci, Gabriele; Myhre, Gunnar; van Noije, Twan; Schulz, Michael; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; Takemura, Toshihiko; Zhang, Kai

    2015-09-27

    The aerosol Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) over the global oceans is evaluated based on polarimetric measurements by the PARASOL satellite. The retrieved values for SSA and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) agree well with the ground-based measurements of the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). The global coverage provided by the PARASOL observations represents a unique opportunity to evaluate SSA and AOD simulated by atmospheric transport model runs, as performed in the AeroCom framework. The SSA estimate provided by the AeroCom models is generally higher than the SSA retrieved from both PARASOL and AERONET. On the other hand, the mean simulated AOD is about right or slightly underestimated compared with observations. An overestimate of the SSA by the models would suggest that these simulate an overly strong aerosol radiative cooling at top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and underestimate it at surface. This implies that aerosols have a potential stronger impact within the atmosphere than currently simulated.

  5. Estimation of time to rupture in a fire using 6FIRE, a lumped parameter UF{sub 6} cylinder transient heat transfer/stress analysis model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, W.R.; Anderson, J.C.

    1995-12-31

    The transportation of UF{sup 6} is subject to regulations requiring the evaluation of packaging under a sequence of hypothetical accident conditions including exposure to a 30-min 800{degree}C (1475{degree}F) fire [10 CFR 71.73(c)(3)]. An issue of continuing interest is whether bare cylinders can withstand such a fire without rupturing. To address this issue, a lumped parameter heat transfer/stress analysis model (6FIRE) has been developed to simulate heating to the point of rupture of a cylinder containing UF{sup 6} when it is exposed to a fire. The model is described, then estimates of time to rupture are presented for various cylinder types, fire temperatures, and fill conditions. An assessment of the quantity of UF{sup 6} released from containment after rupture is also presented. Further documentation of the model is referenced.

  6. Parametric Hazard Function Estimation.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1999-09-13

    Version 00 Phaze performs statistical inference calculations on a hazard function (also called a failure rate or intensity function) based on reported failure times of components that are repaired and restored to service. Three parametric models are allowed: the exponential, linear, and Weibull hazard models. The inference includes estimation (maximum likelihood estimators and confidence regions) of the parameters and of the hazard function itself, testing of hypotheses such as increasing failure rate, and checking ofmore » the model assumptions.« less

  7. Real-time global flood estimation using satellite-based precipitation and a coupled land surface and routing model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, Huan; Adler, Robert F.; Tian, Yudong; Huffman, George J.; Li, Hongyi; Wang, JianJian

    2014-03-01

    A widely used land surface model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, is coupled with a newly developed hierarchical dominant river tracing-based runoff-routing model to form the Dominant river tracing-Routing Integrated with VIC Environment (DRIVE) model, which serves as the new core of the real-time Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS). The GFMS uses real-time satellite-based precipitation to derive flood monitoring parameters for the latitude band 50°N–50°S at relatively high spatial (~12 km) and temporal (3 hourly) resolution. Examples of model results for recent flood events are computed using the real-time GFMS (http://flood.umd.edu). To evaluate the accuracy of the new GFMS, the DRIVE model is run retrospectively for 15 years using both research-quality and real-time satellite precipitation products. Evaluation results are slightly better for the research-quality input and significantly better for longer duration events (3 day events versus 1 day events). Basins with fewer dams tend to provide lower false alarm ratios. For events longer than three days in areas with few dams, the probability of detection is ~0.9 and the false alarm ratio is ~0.6. In general, these statistical results are better than those of the previous system. Streamflow was evaluated at 1121 river gauges across the quasi-global domain. Validation using real-time precipitation across the tropics (30°S–30°N) gives positive daily Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficients for 107 out of 375 (28%) stations with a mean of 0.19 and 51% of the same gauges at monthly scale with a mean of 0.33. Finally, there were poorer results in higher latitudes, probably due to larger errors in the satellite precipitation input.

  8. Model-dependent estimate on the connection between fast radio bursts and ultra high energy cosmic rays

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Xiang; Zhou, Bei; He, Hao-Ning; Fan, Yi-Zhong; Wei, Da-Ming

    2014-12-10

    The existence of fast radio bursts (FRBs), a new type of extragalatic transient, has recently been established, and quite a few models have been proposed. In this work, we discuss the possible connection between the FRB sources and ultra high energy (>10{sup 18} eV) cosmic rays. We show that in the blitzar model and the model of merging binary neutron stars, which includes the huge energy release of each FRB central engine together with the rather high rate of FRBs, the accelerated EeV cosmic rays may contribute significantly to the observed ones. In other FRB models, including, for example, the merger of double white dwarfs and the energetic magnetar radio flares, no significant EeV cosmic ray is expected. We also suggest that the mergers of double neutron stars, even if they are irrelevant to FRBs, may play a nonignorable role in producing EeV cosmic ray protons if supramassive neutron stars are formed in a sufficient fraction of mergers and the merger rate is ? 10{sup 3} yr{sup 1} Gpc{sup 3}. Such a possibility will be unambiguously tested in the era of gravitational wave astronomy.

  9. A simplified model for estimating population-scale energy impacts of building envelope air-tightening and mechanical ventilation retrofits

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Logue, J. M.; Turner, W. J.N.; Walker, I. S.; Singer, B. C.

    2015-07-01

    Changing the air exchange rate of a home (the sum of the infiltration and mechanical ventilation airflow rates) affects the annual thermal conditioning energy. Large-scale changes to air exchange rates of the housing stock can significantly alter the residential sector’s energy consumption. However, the complexity of existing residential energy models is a barrier to the accurate quantification of the impact of policy changes on a state or national level.

  10. A Phenomenological Model of Bulk Force in a Li-Ion Battery Pack and Its Application to State of Charge Estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mohan, S; Kim, Y; Siegel, JB; Samad, NA; Stefanopoulou, AG

    2014-09-19

    A phenomenological model of the bulk force exerted by a lithium ion cell during various charge, discharge, and temperature operating conditions is developed. The measured and modeled force resembles the carbon expansion behavior associated with the phase changes during intercalation, as there are ranges of state of charge (SOC) with a gradual force increase and ranges of SOC with very small change in force. The model includes the influence of temperature on the observed force capturing the underlying thermal expansion phenomena. Moreover the model is capable of describing the changes in force during thermal transients, when internal battery heating due to high C-rates or rapid changes in the ambient temperature, which create a mismatch in the temperature of the cell and the holding fixture. It is finally shown that the bulk force model can be very useful for a more accurate and robust SOC estimation based on fusing information from voltage and force (or pressure) measurements. (C) The Author(s) 2014. Published by ECS. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives 4.0 License (CC BY-NC-ND, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is not changed in any way and is properly cited. For permission for commercial reuse, please email oa@electrochem.org. All rights reserved.

  11. Estimating the Performance and Economic Value of Multiple Concentrating Solar Power Technologies in a Production Cost Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jorgenson, Jennie; Denholm, Paul; Mehos, Mark; Turchi, Craig

    2013-12-01

    Concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP-TES) is a unique source of renewable energy in that the solar thermal energy can be dispatched similarly to conventional thermal generation. However, CSP-TES plants are energy-limited, meaning that their response might be restricted by solar availability. Therefore, the use of this limited solar energy must be optimally scheduled toprovide the greatest value to the system. The timing of CSP-TES dispatch depends on a variety of factors, including electricity demand patterns, the penetration of variable generation sources, and the configuration of the CSP-TES plant itself. We use an established CSP-TES modeling framework in a commercially available production cost model to compare the dispatch and value of two CSP-TEStechnologies (molten salt towers and parabolic troughs) in a Colorado test system. In addition, we consider a range of configuration parameters, such as the solar multiple and thermal energy storage limit, to evaluate how the operational and capacity value varies with plant configuration.

  12. Effects of in-situ and reanalysis climate data on estimation of cropland gross primary production using the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jin, Cui; Xiao, Xiangming; Wagle, Pradeep; Griffis, Timothy; Dong, Jinwei; Wu, Chaoyang; Qin, Yuanwei; Cook, David R.

    2015-11-01

    Satellite-based Production Efficiency Models (PEMs) often require meteorological reanalysis data such as the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as model inputs to simulate Gross Primary Production (GPP) at regional and global scales. This study first evaluated the accuracies of air temperature (TNARR) and downward shortwave radiation (RNARR) of the NARR by comparing with in-situ meteorological measurements at 37 AmeriFlux non-crop eddy flux sites, then used one PEM – the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) to simulate 8-day mean GPP (GPPVPM) at seven AmeriFlux crop sites, and investigated the uncertainties in GPPVPM from climate inputs as compared with eddy covariance-based GPP (GPPEC). Results showed that TNARR agreed well with in-situ measurements; RNARR, however, was positively biased. An empirical linear correction was applied to RNARR, and significantly reduced the relative error of RNARR by ~25% for crop site-years. Overall, GPPVPM calculated from the in-situ (GPPVPM(EC)), original (GPPVPM(NARR)) and adjusted NARR (GPPVPM(adjNARR)) climate data tracked the seasonality of GPPEC well, albeit with different degrees of biases. GPPVPM(EC) showed a good match with GPPEC for maize (Zea mays L.), but was slightly underestimated for soybean (Glycine max L.). Replacing the in-situ climate data with the NARR resulted in a significant overestimation of GPPVPM(NARR) (18.4/29.6% for irrigated/rainfed maize and 12.7/12.5% for irrigated/rainfed soybean). GPPVPM(adjNARR) showed a good agreement with GPPVPM(EC) for both crops due to the reduction in the bias of RNARR. The results imply that the bias of RNARR introduced significant uncertainties into the PEM-based GPP estimates, suggesting that more accurate surface radiation datasets are needed to estimate primary production of terrestrial ecosystems at regional and global scales.

  13. Natural Phenomena Hazards Modeling Project: Preliminary flood hazards estimates for screening Department of Energy sites, Albuquerque Operations Office

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCann, M.W. Jr.; Boissonnade, A.C.

    1988-05-01

    As part of an ongoing program, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is directing the Natural Phenomena Hazards Modeling Project (NPHMP) on behalf of the Department of Energy (DOE). A major part of this effort is the development of probabilistic definitions of natural phenomena hazards; seismic, wind, and flood. In this report the first phase of the evaluation of flood hazards at DOE sites is described. Unlike seismic and wind events, floods may not present a significant threat to the operations of all DOE sites. For example, at some sites physical circumstances may exist that effectively preclude the occurrence of flooding. As a result, consideration of flood hazards may not be required as part of the site design basis. In this case it is not necessary to perform a detailed flood hazard study at all DOE sites, such as those conducted for other natural phenomena hazards, seismic and wind. The scope of the preliminary flood hazard analysis is restricted to evaluating the flood hazards that may exist in proximity to a site. The analysis does involve an assessment of the potential encroachment of flooding on-site at individual facility locations. However, the preliminary flood hazard assessment does not consider localized flooding at a site due to precipitation (i.e., local run-off, storm sewer capacity, roof drainage). These issues are reserved for consideration by the DOE site manager. 11 refs., 84 figs., 61 tabs.

  14. Estimating Fuel Cycle Externalities: Analytical Methods and Issues, Report 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barnthouse, L.W.; Cada, G.F.; Cheng, M.-D.; Easterly, C.E.; Kroodsma, R.L.; Lee, R.; Shriner, D.S.; Tolbert, V.R.; Turner, R.S.

    1994-07-01

    that also have not been fully addressed. This document contains two types of papers that seek to fill part of this void. Some of the papers describe analytical methods that can be applied to one of the five steps of the damage function approach. The other papers discuss some of the complex issues that arise in trying to estimate externalities. This report, the second in a series of eight reports, is part of a joint study by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Commission of the European Communities (EC)* on the externalities of fuel cycles. Most of the papers in this report were originally written as working papers during the initial phases of this study. The papers provide descriptions of the (non-radiological) atmospheric dispersion modeling that the study uses; reviews much of the relevant literature on ecological and health effects, and on the economic valuation of those impacts; contains several papers on some of the more complex and contentious issues in estimating externalities; and describes a method for depicting the quality of scientific information that a study uses. The analytical methods and issues that this report discusses generally pertain to more than one of the fuel cycles, though not necessarily to all of them. The report is divided into six parts, each one focusing on a different subject area.

  15. Cost Estimating, Analysis, and Standardization

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1984-11-02

    To establish policy and responsibilities for: (a) developing and reviewing project cost estimates; (b) preparing independent cost estimates and analysis; (c) standardizing cost estimating procedures; and (d) improving overall cost estimating and analytical techniques, cost data bases, cost and economic escalation models, and cost estimating systems. Cancels DOE O 5700.2B, dated 8-5-1983; DOE O 5700.8, dated 5-27-1981; and HQ 1130.1A, dated 12-30-1981. Canceled by DOE O 5700.2D, dated 6-12-1992

  16. Estimation of unsaturated zone traveltimes for Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain, Nevada Test Site, Nevada, using a source-responsive preferential-flow model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brian A. Ebel; John R. Nimmo

    2009-09-11

    zone takes place as preferential flow, faster than would be predicted by the coupled Richards' and advection-dispersion equations with hydraulic properties estimated by traditional means. At present the hydrologic community has not achieved consensus as to whether a modification of Richards' equation, or a fundamentally different formulation, would best quantify preferential flow. Where the fastest contaminant transport speed is what needs to be estimated, there is the possibility of simplification of the evaluation process. One way of doing so is by a two-step process in which the first step is to evaluate whether significant preferential flow and solute transport is possible for the media and conditions of concern. The second step is to carry out (a) a basic Richards' and advection-dispersion equation analysis if it is concluded that preferential flow is not possible or (b) an analysis that considers only the fastest possible preferential-flow processes, if preferential flow is possible. For the preferential-flow situation, a recently published model describable as a Source-Responsive Preferential-Flow (SRPF) model is an easily applied option. This report documents the application of this two-step process to flow through the thick unsaturated zones of Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain in the Nevada Test Site. Application of the SRPF model involves distinguishing between continuous and intermittent water supply to preferential flow paths. At Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain this issue is complicated by the fact that contaminant travel begins at a location deep in the subsurface, where there may be perched water that may or may not act like a continuous supply, depending on such features as the connectedness of fractures and the nature of impeding layers. We have treated this situation by hypothesizing both continuous and intermittent scenarios for contaminant transport to the carbonate aquifer and reporting estimation of the fastest speed for both of these end

  17. Estimated Water Flows in 2005: United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, C A; Belles, R D; Simon, A J

    2011-03-16

    Flow charts depicting water use in the United States have been constructed from publicly available data and estimates of water use patterns. Approximately 410,500 million gallons per day of water are managed throughout the United States for use in farming, power production, residential, commercial, and industrial applications. Water is obtained from four major resource classes: fresh surface-water, saline (ocean) surface-water, fresh groundwater and saline (brackish) groundwater. Water that is not consumed or evaporated during its use is returned to surface bodies of water. The flow patterns are represented in a compact 'visual atlas' of 52 state-level (all 50 states in addition to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands) and one national water flow chart representing a comprehensive systems view of national water resources, use, and disposition.

  18. Determining Best Estimates and Uncertainties in Cloud Microphysical Parameters from ARM Field Data: Implications for Models, Retrieval Schemes and Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interactions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McFarquhar, Greg

    2015-12-28

    We proposed to analyze in-situ cloud data collected during ARM/ASR field campaigns to create databases of cloud microphysical properties and their uncertainties as needed for the development of improved cloud parameterizations for models and remote sensing retrievals, and for evaluation of model simulations and retrievals. In particular, we proposed to analyze data collected over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) during the Mid-latitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E), the Storm Peak Laboratory Cloud Property Validation Experiment (STORMVEX), the Small Particles in Cirrus (SPARTICUS) Experiment and the Routine AAF Clouds with Low Optical Water Depths (CLOWD) Optical Radiative Observations (RACORO) field campaign, over the North Slope of Alaska during the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) and the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE), and over the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) during The Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE), to meet the following 3 objectives; derive statistical databases of single ice particle properties (aspect ratio AR, dominant habit, mass, projected area) and distributions of ice crystals (size distributions SDs, mass-dimension m-D, area-dimension A-D relations, mass-weighted fall speeds, single-scattering properties, total concentrations N, ice mass contents IWC), complete with uncertainty estimates; assess processes by which aerosols modulate cloud properties in arctic stratus and mid-latitude cumuli, and quantify aerosol’s influence in context of varying meteorological and surface conditions; and determine how ice cloud microphysical, single-scattering and fall-out properties and contributions of small ice crystals to such properties vary according to location, environment, surface, meteorological and aerosol conditions, and develop parameterizations of such effects.In this report we describe the accomplishments that we made on all 3 research objectives.

  19. Contribution to the development of DOE ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data (CMBE) products: Satellite data over the ARM permanent and AMF sites: Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xie, B; Dong, X; Xie, S

    2012-05-18

    To support the LLNL ARM infrastructure team Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) data development, the University of North Dakota (UND)'s group will provide the LLNL team the NASA CERES and ISCCP satellite retrieved cloud and radiative properties for the periods when they are available over the ARM permanent research sites. The current available datasets, to date, are as follows: the CERES/TERRA during 200003-200812; the CERES/AQUA during 200207-200712; and the ISCCP during 199601-200806. The detailed parameters list below: (1) CERES Shortwave radiative fluxes (net and downwelling); (2) CERES Longwave radiative fluxes (upwelling) - (items 1 & 2 include both all-sky and clear-sky fluxes); (3) CERES Layered clouds (total, high, middle, and low); (4) CERES Cloud thickness; (5) CERES Effective cloud height; (6) CERES cloud microphysical/optical properties; (7) ISCCP optical depth cloud top pressure matrix; (8) ISCCP derived cloud types (r.g., cirrus, stratus, etc.); and (9) ISCCP infrared derived cloud top pressures. (10) The UND group shall apply necessary quality checks to the original CERES and ISCCP data to remove suspicious data points. The temporal resolution for CERES data should be all available satellite overpasses over the ARM sites; for ISCCP data, it should be 3-hourly. The spatial resolution is the closest satellite field of view observations to the ARM surface sites. All the provided satellite data should be in a format that is consistent with the current ARM CMBE dataset so that the satellite data can be easily merged into the CMBE dataset.

  20. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-02-07

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  1. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Darwin, AU with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-02-07

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  2. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Manus Island, PNG with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-02-07

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  3. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2011-02-07

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  4. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Darwin, AU with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC3 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  5. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Manus Island, PNG with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC1 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  6. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate from Nauru with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD TWPC2 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  7. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Barrow, AK with additional satellite product (ARMBE-CLDRAD NSAC1 V2.1a)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    The ARM CMBE-ATM [Xie, McCoy, Klein et al.] data file contains a best estimate of several selected atmospheric quantities from ACRF observations and NWP analysis data.

  8. In vitro-in vivo extrapolation of quantitative hepatic biotransformation data for fish - I. A review of methods, and strategies for incorporating intrinsic clearance estimates into chemical kinetic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nichols, John W.; Schultz, Irv R.; Fitzsimmons, Patrick N..

    2006-06-10

    Mammalian researchers have developed a stepwise approach to predict in vivo hepatic clearance from measurements of in vitro hepatic metabolism. The resulting clearance estimates have been used to screen drug candidates, identify potential drug-drug interactions, investigate idiosyncratic drug responses, and support toxicology risk assessments. In this report we review these methods, discuss their potential application to studies with fish, and describe how extrapolated values could be incorporated into well-known compartmental kinetic models. Empirical equations that relate extrapolation factors to chemical log Kow are given to facilitate the incorporation of metabolism data into bioconcentration and bioaccumulation models. Because they explicitly incorporate the concept of clearance, compartmental clearance volume models are particularly well suited for incorporating hepatic clearance estimates. The manner in which these clearance values are incorporated into a given model depends, however, on the measurement frame of reference. Procedures for the incorporation of in vitro metabolism data into physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models are also described. Unlike most compartmental models, PBTK models are developed to describe the effects of metabolism in the tissue where it occurs. In addition, PBTK models are well suited to modeling metabolism in more than one tissue.

  9. Estimation of Anisotoropy from Total Cross Section and Optical...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Conference: Estimation of Anisotoropy from Total Cross Section and Optical Model Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Estimation of Anisotoropy from Total Cross Section and ...

  10. Cost Estimation Package

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    This chapter focuses on the components (or elements) of the cost estimation package and their documentation.

  11. A Systematic Comprehensive Computational Model for Stake Estimation in Mission Assurance: Applying Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Grimaila, Michael R

    2010-01-01

    In earlier works, we presented a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security breakdowns. In this paper, we discuss how this infrastructure can be used in the subject domain of mission assurance as defined as the full life-cycle engineering process to identify and mitigate design, production, test, and field support deficiencies of mission success. We address the opportunity to apply the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Carnegie Mellon University and Software Engineering Institute s Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP) in this context.

  12. Lattice Boltzmann simulation of solute transport in heterogeneous porous media with conduits to estimate macroscopic continuous time random walk model parameters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anwar, S.; Cortis, A.; Sukop, M.

    2008-10-20

    Lattice Boltzmann models simulate solute transport in porous media traversed by conduits. Resulting solute breakthrough curves are fitted with Continuous Time Random Walk models. Porous media are simulated by damping flow inertia and, when the damping is large enough, a Darcy's Law solution instead of the Navier-Stokes solution normally provided by the lattice Boltzmann model is obtained. Anisotropic dispersion is incorporated using a direction-dependent relaxation time. Our particular interest is to simulate transport processes outside the applicability of the standard Advection-Dispersion Equation (ADE) including eddy mixing in conduits. The ADE fails to adequately fit any of these breakthrough curves.

  13. Check Estimates and Independent Costs

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    Check estimates and independent cost estimates (ICEs) are tools that can be used to validate a cost estimate. Estimate validation entails an objective review of the estimate to ensure that estimate criteria and requirements have been met and well documented, defensible estimate has been developed. This chapter describes check estimates and their procedures and various types of independent cost estimates.

  14. Estimation of placental and lactational transfer and tissue distribution of atrazine and its main metabolites in rodent dams, fetuses, and neonates with physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Zhoumeng; Fisher, Jeffrey W.; Wang, Ran; Ross, Matthew K.; Filipov, Nikolay M.

    2013-11-15

    Atrazine (ATR) is a widely used chlorotriazine herbicide, a ubiquitous environmental contaminant, and a potential developmental toxicant. To quantitatively evaluate placental/lactational transfer and fetal/neonatal tissue dosimetry of ATR and its major metabolites, physiologically based pharmacokinetic models were developed for rat dams, fetuses and neonates. These models were calibrated using pharmacokinetic data from rat dams repeatedly exposed (oral gavage; 5 mg/kg) to ATR followed by model evaluation against other available rat data. Model simulations corresponded well to the majority of available experimental data and suggest that: (1) the fetus is exposed to both ATR and its major metabolite didealkylatrazine (DACT) at levels similar to maternal plasma levels, (2) the neonate is exposed mostly to DACT at levels two-thirds lower than maternal plasma or fetal levels, while lactational exposure to ATR is minimal, and (3) gestational carryover of DACT greatly affects its neonatal dosimetry up until mid-lactation. To test the model's cross-species extrapolation capability, a pharmacokinetic study was conducted with pregnant C57BL/6 mice exposed (oral gavage; 5 mg/kg) to ATR from gestational day 12 to 18. By using mouse-specific parameters, the model predictions fitted well with the measured data, including placental ATR/DACT levels. However, fetal concentrations of DACT were overestimated by the model (10-fold). This overestimation suggests that only around 10% of the DACT that reaches the fetus is tissue-bound. These rodent models could be used in fetal/neonatal tissue dosimetry predictions to help design/interpret early life toxicity/pharmacokinetic studies with ATR and as a foundation for scaling to humans. - Highlights: We developed PBPK models for atrazine in rat dams, fetuses, and neonates. We conducted pharmacokinetic (PK) study with atrazine in pregnant mice. Model predictions were in good agreement with experimental rat and mouse PK data. The

  15. Hydrogen Station Cost Estimates: Comparing Hydrogen Station Cost Calculator Results with other Recent Estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melaina, M.; Penev, M.

    2013-09-01

    This report compares hydrogen station cost estimates conveyed by expert stakeholders through the Hydrogen Station Cost Calculation (HSCC) to a select number of other cost estimates. These other cost estimates include projections based upon cost models and costs associated with recently funded stations.

  16. State Energy Production Estimates

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Energy Production Estimates 1960 Through 2012 2012 Summary Tables Table P1. Energy Production Estimates in Physical Units, 2012 Alabama 19,455 215,710 9,525 0 Alaska 2,052 351,259...

  17. ESTIMATING FATE AND TRANSPORT OF MULTIPLE CONTAMINANTS IN THE VADOSE ZONE USING A MULTI-LAYERED SOIL COLUMN AND THREE-PHASE EQUILIBRIUM PARTITIONING MODEL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rucker, G

    2007-05-01

    Soils at waste sites must be evaluated for the potential of residual soil contamination to leach and migrate to the groundwater beneath the disposal area. If migration to the aquifer occurs, contaminants can travel vast distances and contaminate drinking water wells, thus exposing human receptors to harmful levels of toxins and carcinogens. To prevent groundwater contamination, a contaminant fate and transport analysis is necessary to assess the migration potential of residual soil contaminates. This type of migration analysis is usually performed using a vadose zone model to account for complex geotechnical and chemical variables including: contaminant decay, infiltration rate, soil properties, vadose zone thickness, and chemical behavior. The distinct advantage of using a complex model is that less restrictive, but still protective, soil threshold levels may be determined avoiding the unnecessary and costly remediation of marginally contaminated soils. However, the disadvantage of such modeling is the additional cost for data collection and labor required to apply these models. In order to allay these higher costs and to achieve a less restrictive but still protective clean-up level, a multiple contaminant and multi layered soil column equilibrium partitioning model was developed which is faster, simpler and less expensive to use.

  18. Estimating fate and transport of multiple contaminants in the vadose zone using a multi-layered soil column and three-phase equilibrium partitioning model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rucker, Gregory G.

    2007-07-01

    Soils at waste sites must be evaluated for the potential of residual soil contamination to leach and migrate to the groundwater beneath the disposal area. If migration to the aquifer occurs, contaminants can travel vast distances and pollute drinking water wells, thus exposing human receptors to harmful levels of toxins and carcinogens. To prevent groundwater contamination, a contaminant fate and transport analysis is necessary to assess the migration potential of residual soil contaminants. This type of migration analysis is usually performed using a vadose zone model to account for complex geotechnical and chemical variables including: decay processes, infiltration rate, soil properties, vadose zone thickness, and chemical behavior. The distinct advantage of using a complex model is that less restrictive, but still protective, soil threshold levels may be determined avoiding the unnecessary and costly remediation of marginally contaminated soils. However, the disadvantage of such modeling is the additional cost for data collection and labor required to apply these models. In order to allay these higher costs and to achieve a less restrictive but still protective clean-up level, a multiple contaminant and multi layered soil column equilibrium partitioning model was developed which is faster, simpler and less expensive to use. (authors)

  19. Types of Cost Estimates

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    The chapter describes the estimates required on government-managed projects for both general construction and environmental management.

  20. Estimated United States Residential Energy Use in 2005

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, C A; Johnson, D M; Simon, A J; Belles, R D

    2011-12-12

    A flow chart depicting energy flow in the residential sector of the United States economy in 2005 has been constructed from publicly available data and estimates of national energy use patterns. Approximately 11,000 trillion British Thermal Units (trBTUs) of electricity and fuels were used throughout the United States residential sector in lighting, electronics, air conditioning, space heating, water heating, washing appliances, cooking appliances, refrigerators, and other appliances. The residential sector is powered mainly by electricity and natural gas. Other fuels used include petroleum products (fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas and kerosene), biomass (wood), and on-premises solar, wind, and geothermal energy. The flow patterns represent a comprehensive systems view of energy used within the residential sector.

  1. Estimated Carbon Dioxide Emissions in 2008: United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, C A; Simon, A J; Belles, R D

    2011-04-01

    Flow charts depicting carbon dioxide emissions in the United States have been constructed from publicly available data and estimates of state-level energy use patterns. Approximately 5,800 million metric tons of carbon dioxide were emitted throughout the United States for use in power production, residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation applications in 2008. Carbon dioxide is emitted from the use of three major energy resources: natural gas, coal, and petroleum. The flow patterns are represented in a compact 'visual atlas' of 52 state-level (all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and one national) carbon dioxide flow charts representing a comprehensive systems view of national CO{sub 2} emissions. Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL) has published flow charts (also referred to as 'Sankey Diagrams') of important national commodities since the early 1970s. The most widely recognized of these charts is the U.S. energy flow chart (http://flowcharts.llnl.gov). LLNL has also published charts depicting carbon (or carbon dioxide potential) flow and water flow at the national level as well as energy, carbon, and water flows at the international, state, municipal, and organizational (i.e. United States Air Force) level. Flow charts are valuable as single-page references that contain quantitative data about resource, commodity, and byproduct flows in a graphical form that also convey structural information about the system that manages those flows. Data on carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector are reported on a national level. Because carbon dioxide emissions are not reported for individual states, the carbon dioxide emissions are estimated using published energy use information. Data on energy use is compiled by the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (U.S. EIA) in the State Energy Data System (SEDS). SEDS is updated annually and reports data from 2 years prior to the year of the update. SEDS contains data on primary

  2. State energy data report 1994: Consumption estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-10-01

    This document provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), operated by EIA. SEDS provides State energy consumption estimates to members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public, and provides the historical series needed for EIA`s energy models. Division is made for each energy type and end use sector. Nuclear electric power is included.

  3. Coupling of Realistic Rate Estimates with Genomics for Assessing Contaminant Attenuation and Long-Term Plume Containment - Task 4: Modeling - Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robert C. Starr

    2005-10-31

    seven plumes at 24 DOE facilities were screened, and 14 plumes were selected for detailed examination. In the plumes selected for further study, spatial changes in the concentration of a conservative co-contaminant were used to compensate for the effects of mixing and temporal changes in TCE release from the contaminant source. Decline in TCE concentration along a flow path in excess of the co contaminant concentration decline was attributed to cometabolic degradation. This study indicated that TCE was degraded in 9 of the 14 plumes examined, with first order degradation half-lives ranging from about 1 to 12 years. TCE degradation in about two-thirds of the plumes examined suggests that cometabolism of TCE in aerobic groundwater is a common occurrence, in contrast to the conventional wisdom that TCE is recalcitrant in aerobic groundwater. The degradation half-life values calculated in this study are short enough that natural attenuation may be a viable remedy in many aerobic plumes. Computer modeling of groundwater flow and contaminant transport and degradation is frequently used to predict the evolution of groundwater plumes, and for evaluating natural attenuation and other remedial alternatives. An important aspect of a computer model is the mathematical approach for describing degradation kinetics. A common approach is to assume that degradation occurs as a first-order process. First order kinetics are easily incorporated into transport models and require only a single value (a degradation half-life) to describe reaction kinetics. The use of first order kinetics is justified in many cases because more elaborate kinetic equations often closely approximate first order kinetics under typical field conditions. A previous modeling study successfully simulated the INL TCE plume using first order degradation kinetics. TCE cometabolism is the result of TCE reacting with microbial enzymes that were produced for other purposes, such as oxidizing a growth substrate to obtain

  4. gtp_flow_power_estimator.xlsx

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This simple spreadsheet model estimates either the flow rate required to produce a specified level of power output, or the power output that can be produced from a specified flow rate.

  5. Estimating Specialty Costs

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    Specialty costs are those nonstandard, unusual costs that are not typically estimated. Costs for research and development (R&D) projects involving new technologies, costs associated with future regulations, and specialty equipment costs are examples of specialty costs. This chapter discusses those factors that are significant contributors to project specialty costs and methods of estimating costs for specialty projects.

  6. Tight gas reservoirs: A visual depiction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    Future gas supplies in the US will depend on an increasing contribution from unconventional sources such as overpressured and tight gas reservoirs. Exploitation of these resources and their conversion to economically producible gas reserves represents a major challenge. Meeting this challenge will require not only the continuing development and application of new technologies, but also a detailed understanding of the complex nature of the reservoirs themselves. This report seeks to promote understanding of these reservoirs by providing examples. Examples of gas productive overpressured tight reservoirs in the Greater Green River Basin, Wyoming are presented. These examples show log data (raw and interpreted), well completion and stimulation information, and production decline curves. A sampling of wells from the Lewis and Mesaverde formations are included. Both poor and good wells have been chosen to illustrate the range of productivity that is observed. The second section of this document displays decline curves and completion details for 30 of the best wells in the Greater Green River Basin. These are included to illustrate the potential that is present when wells are fortuitously located with respect to local stratigraphy and natural fracturing, and are successfully hydraulically fractured.

  7. Background estimation in experimental spectra

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fischer, R.; Hanson, K. M.; Los Alamos National Laboratory, MS P940, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545 ; Dose, V.; Linden, W. von der

    2000-02-01

    A general probabilistic technique for estimating background contributions to measured spectra is presented. A Bayesian model is used to capture the defining characteristics of the problem, namely, that the background is smoother than the signal. The signal is allowed to have positive and/or negative components. The background is represented in terms of a cubic spline basis. A variable degree of smoothness of the background is attained by allowing the number of knots and the knot positions to be adaptively chosen on the basis of the data. The fully Bayesian approach taken provides a natural way to handle knot adaptivity and allows uncertainties in the background to be estimated. Our technique is demonstrated on a particle induced x-ray emission spectrum from a geological sample and an Auger spectrum from iron, which contains signals with both positive and negative components. (c) 2000 The American Physical Society.

  8. Cost Estimating Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-05-09

    This Guide provides uniform guidance and best practices that describe the methods and procedures that could be used in all programs and projects at DOE for preparing cost estimates. No cancellations.

  9. Derived Annual Estimates

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    74-1988 For Methodology Concerning the Derived Estimates Total Consumption of Offsite-Produced Energy for Heat and Power by Industry Group, 1974-1988 Total Energy *** Electricity...

  10. Cost Estimating Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-05-09

    This Guide provides uniform guidance and best practices that describe the methods and procedures that could be used in all programs and projects at DOE for preparing cost estimates.

  11. Cost Estimating Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    The objective of this Guide is to improve the quality of cost estimates and further strengthen the DOE program/project management system. The original 25 separate chapters and three appendices have been combined to create a single document.

  12. Independent Cost Estimate (ICE)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Independent Cost Estimate (ICE). On August 8-12, the Office of Project Management Oversight and Assessments (PM) will conduct an ICE on the NNSA Albuquerque Complex Project (NACP) at Albuquerque, NM. This estimate will support the Critical Decision (CD) for establishing the performance baseline and approval to start construction (CD-2/3). This project is at CD-1, with a total project cost range of $183M to $251M.

  13. File:SWERA-157.pdf | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    applicationpdf) Title A map depicting model estimates of monthly average daily total radiation using inputs derived from satellite and surface observations of cloud cover,...

  14. Estimating exposure of terrestrial wildlife to contaminants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sample, B.E.; Suter, G.W. II

    1994-09-01

    This report describes generalized models for the estimation of contaminant exposure experienced by wildlife on the Oak Ridge Reservation. The primary exposure pathway considered is oral ingestion, e.g. the consumption of contaminated food, water, or soil. Exposure through dermal absorption and inhalation are special cases and are not considered hereIN. Because wildlife mobile and generally consume diverse diets and because environmental contamination is not spatial homogeneous, factors to account for variation in diet, movement, and contaminant distribution have been incorporated into the models. To facilitate the use and application of the models, life history parameters necessary to estimate exposure are summarized for 15 common wildlife species. Finally, to display the application of the models, exposure estimates were calculated for four species using data from a source operable unit on the Oak Ridge Reservation.

  15. A simple method to estimate interwell autocorrelation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pizarro, J.O.S.; Lake, L.W.

    1997-08-01

    The estimation of autocorrelation in the lateral or interwell direction is important when performing reservoir characterization studies using stochastic modeling. This paper presents a new method to estimate the interwell autocorrelation based on parameters, such as the vertical range and the variance, that can be estimated with commonly available data. We used synthetic fields that were generated from stochastic simulations to provide data to construct the estimation charts. These charts relate the ratio of areal to vertical variance and the autocorrelation range (expressed variously) in two directions. Three different semivariogram models were considered: spherical, exponential and truncated fractal. The overall procedure is demonstrated using field data. We find that the approach gives the most self-consistent results when it is applied to previously identified facies. Moreover, the autocorrelation trends follow the depositional pattern of the reservoir, which gives confidence in the validity of the approach.

  16. Estimating Bacteria Emissions from Inversion of Atmospheric Transport...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Bacteria Emissions from Inversion of Atmospheric Transport: Sensitivity to Modelled Particle Characteristics Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Estimating Bacteria ...

  17. Estimation of the relationship between remotely sensed anthropogenic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    of Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. Anthropogenic heat discharge was estimated based on a remote sensing-based surface energy balance model, which was parameterized using land ...

  18. Radiological Source Term Estimates for the February 14, 2014...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    This document corresponds to Appendix D: Modeling Integrated Summary Report of the Technical Assessment Team Report. Radiological Source Term Estimates for the February 14, 2014 ...

  19. Estimation and Control of Diesel Engine Processes Utilizing Variable...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Estimation and Control of Diesel Engine Processes Utilizing Variable Intake Valve Actuation Air handling system model for multi-cylinder variable geometry turbocharged diesel ...

  20. Chapter 3: FY 2005 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) estimates expected benefits for its overall portfolio and for each of its 11 programs. Benefits for the FY 2005 budget request are estimated for the midterm (2010-2025) and long term (2030-2050). Two separate models suited to these periods are employed—NEMS-GPRA05 for the midterm and MARKAL-GPRA05 for the long term.

  1. Chapter 3: FY 2006 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) estimates expected benefits for its overall portfolio and for each of its 11 programs. Benefits for the FY 2006 budget request are estimated for the midterm (2010-2025) and long term (2030-2050). Two separate models suited to these periods are employed–NEMS-GPRA06 for the midterm and MARKAL-GPRA06 for the long term.

  2. State energy data report 1993: Consumption estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-07-01

    The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public; and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models.

  3. State Energy Data Report, 1991: Consumption estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to the Government, policy makers, and the public; and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models.

  4. State energy data report 1995 - consumption estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-12-01

    The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sectors. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public, and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models.

  5. VISION Model

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    VISION Model (Argonne National Laboratory) Objectives To provide estimates of the potential energy use, oil use, and carbon emission impacts of advanced light- and heavy-duty ...

  6. REQUESTS FOR RETIREMENT ESTIMATE

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    REQUEST FOR RETIREMENT ANNUITY ESTIMATE Instructions: Please read and answer the following questions thoroughly to include checking all applicable boxes. Unanswered questions may delay processing. Print and Fax back your request form to 202.586.6395 or drop request to GM-169. The request will be assigned to your servicing retirement specialist. They will confirm receipt of your request. SECTION A Request Submitted _____________________ ______________________ ________________________

  7. Weekly Coal Production Estimation Methodology

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Weekly Coal Production Estimation Methodology Step 1 (Estimate total amount of weekly U.S. coal production) U.S. coal production for the current week is estimated using a ratio ...

  8. Improved computer models support genetics research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    February » Simple computer models unravel genetic stress reactions in cells Simple computer models unravel genetic stress reactions in cells Integrated biological and computational methods provide insight into why genes are activated. February 8, 2013 When complete, these barriers will be a portion of the NMSSUP upgrade. This molecular structure depicts a yeast transfer ribonucleic acid (tRNA), which carries a single amino acid to the ribosome during protein construction. A combined

  9. Improved computer models support genetics research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Simple computer models unravel genetic stress reactions in cells Simple computer models unravel genetic stress reactions in cells Integrated biological and computational methods provide insight into why genes are activated. February 8, 2013 When complete, these barriers will be a portion of the NMSSUP upgrade. This molecular structure depicts a yeast transfer ribonucleic acid (tRNA), which carries a single amino acid to the ribosome during protein construction. A combined experimental and

  10. Magnetic nanoparticle temperature estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weaver, John B.; Rauwerdink, Adam M.; Hansen, Eric W.

    2009-05-15

    The authors present a method of measuring the temperature of magnetic nanoparticles that can be adapted to provide in vivo temperature maps. Many of the minimally invasive therapies that promise to reduce health care costs and improve patient outcomes heat tissue to very specific temperatures to be effective. Measurements are required because physiological cooling, primarily blood flow, makes the temperature difficult to predict a priori. The ratio of the fifth and third harmonics of the magnetization generated by magnetic nanoparticles in a sinusoidal field is used to generate a calibration curve and to subsequently estimate the temperature. The calibration curve is obtained by varying the amplitude of the sinusoidal field. The temperature can then be estimated from any subsequent measurement of the ratio. The accuracy was 0.3 deg. K between 20 and 50 deg. C using the current apparatus and half-second measurements. The method is independent of nanoparticle concentration and nanoparticle size distribution.