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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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1

Surface-Based Convective Potential in the Contiguous United States in a Business-as-Usual Future Climate  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To date, neither observational studies nor direct climate model simulations have been able to document trends in the frequency or severity of deep moist convection associated with global climate change. The lack of such evidence is not unexpected ...

Sara L. Van Klooster; Paul J. Roebber

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Market Trends  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Homepage Homepage Market Trends Economic Activity Renewables International Oil Markets Oil & Natural Gas Energy Demand Coal Electricity Emissions The projections in AEO2001 are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend forecasts, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

3

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

4

Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Market Trend  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

mrktrend.gif (2686 bytes) Economic Activity International Oil Markets Energy Demand Electricity Oil & Natural Gas Coal Emissions The projections in AEO2000 are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend forecasts, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

6

Assess business as usual (BAU) scenarios | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

for sector technologies Renewable Energy Technical Potential Toolkit Building Energy Assessment Toolkit Power System Screening and Design Toolkit Land Use Assessment...

7

Annual Energy Outlook 1999 - Market Trend  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

mrktrend.gif (2686 bytes) mrktrend.gif (2686 bytes) Economic Activity International Oil Markets Energy Demand Electricity Oil & Natural Gas Coal Emissions The projections in AEO99 are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend forecasts, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected. Because energy markets are complex, models are simplified representations of energy production and consumption, regulations, and producer and consumer behavior. Projections are highly dependent on the data, methodologies, model structures,

8

hal-00122749,version1-8Jan2007 Time Series Forecasting: Obtaining Long Term Trends with  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. For example when forecast- ing an electrical consumption, it could be advan- tageous to predict all hourly As second example, we use the Polish electrical load time series [ 6]. This series contains hourly valueshal-00122749,version1-8Jan2007 Time Series Forecasting: Obtaining Long Term Trends with Self

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

9

The possible reasons for the misrepresented long-term climate trends in the seasonal forecasts of HFP2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The climate trend in a dynamical seasonal forecasting system is examined using 33-year multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts from the second phase of the Canadian Historical Forecasting Project (HFP2). It is found that the warming trend of the ...

XiaoJing Jia; Hai Lin

10

Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model developed for industrial energy analysis at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Although the results are mixed, generally ITEMS show greater penetration of energy efficient technologies and thus lower energy use, even though the business as usual forecasts for ITEMS uses a higher discount rate than NEMS uses.

Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

2000-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Technology assessment of offshore industry. The United States offshore industry. Current status, trends and forecast 1976-2000. Volume I. Final report  

SciTech Connect

Volume One presents a description of the current status of the U.S. offshore industry together with developing trends in the industry and an examination of the various forces that influence development. A 25 year forecast of offshore industry development is included. Also included is a description of the U.S. commercial ocean fishing industry and a 25 year forecast of industry development.

Durfee, J.H.

1977-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

Trends in Severe Local Storm Watch Verification at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Trends of tornado and severe thunderstorm watch verification for the period 1967–1990 are presented. Over the past 10 years the annual number of reported severe thunderstorm events has increased substantially. In comparison, the number of tornado ...

Richard W. Anthony; Preston W. Leftwich Jr.

1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

14

Forecasting the financial trends facing intercollegiate athletic programs of public institutions as identified by athletic directors of the ACC, Big 12 and SEC Conferences  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The purpose of this research was to provide a forecast of financial trends in major intercollegiate athletics over the next 15 years for strategic planning purposes. This study focused specifically on the trends of revenue generation and cost containment in the athletic departments of the public institutions in the ACC, Big 12 and SEC Conferences. Most of these large programs are expected to externally produce a majority of their fiscal resources and compete at a high level. This forecast is important because of administrator's increasing difficulty to find the fiscal resources to adequately subsidize their program. The mixed methods study uncovered the myth that intercollegiate athletic programs are in great fiscal health and outlined where leaders in intercollegiate athletics think the future will take us. Over 35 forecasts were identified through interviews with an intercollegiate athletic conference commissioner and an intercollegiate athletic consultant and were then rated by a panel of athletic directors from the aforementioned conferences based on their desirability, impact and likelihood of occurrence. After two rounds of a Delphi procedure, it was determined that over half of the issues, should they occur, would have a high impact. None of the 35 issues were rated as having no or low impact. One issue was rated as having the highest possible likelihood of occurrence. The issue was that employee compensation, utility bills, travel costs, and medical insurance will increase for institutions and athletic departments faster than the general, national rate of inflation. 32 issues were rated as having between a 21-80% chance of occurring, while two issues were given only a 0-20% chance of occurring within the next 10-15 years. The first forecasted that football scholarship limits will be lowered from 85 over the next 10-15 years. The second forecasted that an antitrust exemption will be implemented over the next 10-15 years for intercollegiate athletics by the federal government to cap wages. Over one-third of the issues obtained consensus in two of the three areas rated. Three of the issues obtained consensus in all areas rated.

Penry, Jason Coy

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

17

Skill in Precipitation Forecasting in the National Weather Service  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

All known long-term records of forecasting performance for different types of precipitation forecasts in the National Weather Service were examined for relative skill and secular trends in skill. The largest upward trends were achieved by local ...

Jerome P. Charba; William H. Klein

1980-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...

19

Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts—a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...

Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher

1987-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Forecast Combinations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models’ forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains

Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

Forecasting overview  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the “naďve method”), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

TV Energy Consumption Trends and Energy-Efficiency Improvement Options  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

3D Technology and its Display Trends. ” DisplaySearch, 20102010. “3D TV Technology Trend and Forecast” LG Electronics,Price et al. 2006. “Sectoral Trends in Global Energy Use and

Park, Won Young

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

energy policy initiatives (EIA 1990). Utilities rely on end-use forecasting models in order to assess market trends

Johnson, F.X.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest Inventory.brewer@forestry.gsi.gov.uk Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume

27

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

28

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast

Greenslade, Diana

29

Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...

W. Y. Chen

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt;#12;Copyright ©2012 by WVU Research Corporation Unless otherwise noted, data used for this forecast is from IHS Population 2 GlOBAl OUTlOOk 3 Current Trends 3 Forecast 6 UNITED STATES OUTlOOk 9 Global and United States

Mohaghegh, Shahab

31

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons

32

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

33

The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this “forecast gap.” Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...

2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

34

Selecting a Model for Detecting the Presence of a Trend  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The authors consider the problem of determining whether the upward trending behavior in the global temperature anomaly series should be forecast to continue. To address this question, the generic problem of determining whether an observed trend ...

Wayne A. Woodward; H. L. Gray

1995-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Forecasting in Meteorology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...

C. S. Ramage

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Biofuels Issues and Trends  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Biofuels Issues and Trends Biofuels Issues and Trends October 2012 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Biofuels Issues and Trends i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies. October 2012 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Biofuels Issues and Trends ii Table of Contents

37

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

38

Forecasting distribution system loads using curve shape clustering  

SciTech Connect

Trending using curve fitting to past small area load growth is an economical but not highly accurate method of forecasting loads for distribution planning. A new trending method uses clustering of historical load at the small area level as the forecast algorithm. This new method has significant performance advantages over normal curve fit methods and can be implemented in 16 bit integer arithmetic on most computers. The method and test results are discussed in detail.

Willis, H.L.; Northcote-Green, J.E.D.; Schauer, A.E.; Vismor, T.D.

1983-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...

40

Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We propose to develop a dynamic algorithm that intelligently analyzes existing solar weather data and constructs an increasingly more accurate equation/algorithm for predicting solar weather accurately in real time. This dynamic algorithm analyzes a wealth of data derived from scientific research and provides increasingly accurate solar forecasts. As the database of information grows over time, this algorithm perfects itself and reduces forecast uncertainties. This will provide a vastly more effective way of processing existing data for practical use in the public and private sectors. Specifically, we created an algorithm that stores data from several sources in a way that is useable, we created the ?dynamic algorithm? used for creating accurate/effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a vast improvement over current methods employed.

Fischer, Luke D.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Neural-wavelet Methodology for Load Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Intelligent demand-side management represents a future trend of power system regulation. A key issue in intelligent demand-side management is accurate prediction of load within a local area grid (LAG), which is defined as a set of customers with an appropriate ... Keywords: load forecasting, load identification, neural-wavelet

Rong Gao; Lefteri H. Tsoukalas

2001-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Global large scale penetration of wind energy is accompanied by significant challenges due to the intermittent and unstable nature of wind. High quality short-term wind speed forecasting is critical to reliable and secure power system operations. This paper gives an overview of the current status of worldwide wind power developments and future trends, and reviews some statistical short-term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series models and advanced space-time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular the need for realistic loss functions. New challenges in wind speed forecasting regarding ramp events and offshore wind farms are also presented.

Xinxin Zhu; Marc G. Genton

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

Verifying Forecasts Spatially  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...

Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...

André Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Time Series and Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...

46

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

47

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.

Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sřrensen

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Future world oil prices: modeling methodologies and summary of recent forecasts  

SciTech Connect

This paper has three main objectives. First, the various methodologies that have been developed to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends are reviewed and summarized. Second, the paper summarizes recent world oil price forecasts, and, then possible, discusses the methodologies used in formulating those forecasts. Third, utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologies and the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent and projected oil market trends, oil price projections are given for the time period 1987 to 2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significant evolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex and constantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, at this point in time a consensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts is yet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that both economic and political factors should be considered when making price projections. Likewise, there is no consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely. However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further, an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oil prices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices are expected to increase by between 2 and 3% during the 1990s and beyond. Forecasters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. 69 references, 3 figures, 10 tables.

Curlee, T.R.

1985-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

Forecasting world oil prices: the evolution of modeling methodologies and summary of recent projections  

SciTech Connect

This paper has three main objectives: (1) to review and summarize the varios methodologies that have been developed to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends, (2) to summarize recent world oil price forecasts, and, when possible, discuss the methodologies used in formulating those forecasts, and (3) utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologies and the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent and projected oil market trends, to give oil price projections for the time period 1987 to 2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significant evolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex and constantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, a consensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts is yet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that both economic and political factors should be considered when making price projections. Likewise, there is no consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely. However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further, an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oil prices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices are expected to increase by between 2 and 3% during the 1990s and beyond. Forecasters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. 68 references, 1 figure, 6 tables.

Curlee, T.R.

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

50

Business forecasting methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

52

ORNL integrated forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.

Rizy, C.G.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

54

forecast | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...

55

Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville

Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts,” Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

Global and Local Skill Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...

P. L. Houtekamer

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water

60

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Does the term structure forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-

Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...

Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

Composite forecasting in commodity systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The

Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...

Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

Evaluating Point Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...

Gneiting, Tilmann

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Forecasters ’ Objectives and Strategies ?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.

Iván Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sřrensen

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...

Dean P. Gulezian

1981-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

Mohaghegh, Shahab

69

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

70

Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.

Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

71

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Homepage  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Legislation & Regulations Overview Issues in Focus Economic Market Trends Energy Demand Market Trends Electricity and Renewable Market Trends Oil and Natural Gas Market Trends Coal Market Trnds Forecast Comparisons Emissions Market Trends Additional Links Preface Major Assumptions for the Forecasts Summary of the AEO2003 Cases Acronyms The projections in AEO2002 are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend forecasts, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate on

72

EIA - 2010 International Energy Outlook  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

might happen given the specific assumptions and methodologies used for any particular scenario. The Reference case projection is a business-as-usual trend estimate, given known...

73

An Analysis of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecast Errors, 1970–1979  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Official Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center over the decade of the 1970's are examined in this study. The purpose is to isolate any significant biases, trends or other statistical properties of the ...

Charles S. Neumann; Joseph M. Pelissier

1981-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

75

LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts

Feinberg, Eugene A.

76

Economic Forecast Report Economic Outlook and Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

volatile prices such as food and energy, is even softer, averaging around 1% for the year. Inflation should in our last report, the rebound in economic activity has been weak and uninspiring with below-trend formation is far below desired level, the overall trend is positive. Despite these improve- ments, we fear

de Lijser, Peter

77

Factors Driving Prices & Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...

78

Modeling and Forecasting Aurora  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.

Dirk Lummerzheim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): “OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner, G. , and U. K.2005): “Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

Forecasting in the Presence of Level Shifts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 : 537-560. Hamilton JD.430. Harvey AC. 1989. Forecasting, structural time seriesMH, Timmermann A. 1994. Forecasting stock returns: An

Smith, Aaron

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Application of Polynomial Neural Networks to Exchange Rate Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This research investigates the use of Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (RPNN) as non-linear prediction model to forecast the future trends of financial time series. The network was used for the prediction of one step ahead and five steps ahead of two ... Keywords: Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network, Financial time series, Multilayer Perceptron, Ridge Polynomial Neural Network

R. Ghazali; A. J. Hussain; M. N. Mohd. Salleh

2008-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

FROM ANALYSTS ' EARNINGS FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We examine the accuracy and bias of intrinsic equity prices estimated from three accounting-based valuation models using analyst’s earnings forecasts over a four-year horizon. The models are: (a) the earnings capitalization model, (b) the residual income model without a terminal value, and (c) the residual income model with a terminal value that assumes residual income will grow beyond the horizon at a constant rate determined from the expected residual income growth rate over the forecast horizon. Our analysis is based on valuation errors that are calculated by comparing estimated prices to actual prices. We contribute to the literature by examining whether: (i) the analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book value and dividends, (ii) the use of firm specific growth rates in terminal value calculations results in more unbiased and accurate valuations than the use of constant growth rates, and (iii) different models perform better under different ex-ante conditions. We find that analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book values and dividends. Each of the models that we used has valuation errors that decline monotonically as the horizon increases implying that earnings forecasts at each horizon convey new value relevant information. We cannot find a clear advantage to using firm specific growth rates instead of a constant rate of 4 % across all sample

Theodore Sougiannis; Takashi Yaekura

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast

87

Prices & Trends  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. Learn about EIA and Energy Department organizations that track energy prices and trends.

88

Current Forecast for Sunspot Cycle 24 Parameters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Our prediction for the development of sunspot cycle 23 activity came true; one of the very few to have attained this status. We use the 3?cycle quasi?periodicity observed in the planetary index Ap. We improve our method by including data for 150 years and draw inferences as to what to expect for the development phase of cycle 24. Our forecast for the smoothed sunspot number at cycle 24 peak 78±5 in June 2013; the possibility that next three cycles may be progressively less active cannot be ruled out; the trend may possibly continue for the rest of the 21st century.

H. S. Ahluwalia; R. C. Ygbuhay

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

Mohaghegh, Shahab

90

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW

91

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others

92

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

93

3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 3, 2145­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC ­ Department­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

94

4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OSD 4, 189­212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

95

FINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

predecessors to forecast stock prices and manage portfolios for approximately 3 years.) We examineFINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS SAM MAHFOUD and GANESH MANI LBS Capital Management entitled Genetic Algorithms for Inductive Learning). Time-series forecasting is a special type

Boetticher, Gary D.

96

Forecasting market prices in a supply chain game q Christopher Kiekintveld a,*, Jason Miller b  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

), the simulation day, and the linear trend of selling prices from the previous ten days. For predicting future prices, we used the same set of features with the addition of the estimated customer demand trend (s). 4Forecasting market prices in a supply chain game q Christopher Kiekintveld a,*, Jason Miller b

Wellman, Michael P.

97

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

98

Forecast of auroral activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting

A. T. Y. Lui

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

100

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Information and Inference in Econometrics: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Application: Forecasting Equity Premium . . . . . . . . . .2.6.1 Forecasting4 Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models 4.1

Tu, Yundong

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies ’ finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.

Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

104

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

105

Chapter 11 Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish between the information set for ‘normal forces ’ and the one for ‘break drivers’, then outline sources of potential information. Relevant non-linear, dynamic models facing multiple breaks can have more candidate variables than observations, so we discuss automatic model selection. As a failure to accurately forecast breaks remains likely, we augment our strategy by modelling breaks during their progress, and consider robust forecasting devices.

Jennifer L. Castle; Nicholas W. P. Fawcett; David F. Hendry

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...

Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or

108

Aviation forecasting and systems analyses  

SciTech Connect

The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.

Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

Studies of inflation and forecasting.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This dissertation contains five research papers in the area of applied econometrics. The two broad themes of the research are inflation and forecasting. The first… (more)

Bermingham, Colin

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

110

UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

Lew, D.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

111

On the Prediction of Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, ...

T. N. Palmer; S. Tibaldi

1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...

Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts… (more)

Sakva, Denys

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

What Is the True Value of Forecasts?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to ...

Antony Millner

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

115

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The ...

Lance F. Bosart

2003-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

118

Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One goal of weather and climate forecasting is to inform decision making. Effective communication of forecasts to various sectors of the public is essential for meeting that goal, yet studies repeatedly show that forecasts are not well understood ...

Karen Pennesi

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A cloud model ensemble forecasting approach is developed to create forecasts that describe the range and distribution of thunderstorm lifetimes that may be expected to occur on a particular day. Such forecasts are crucial for anticipating severe ...

Kimberly L. Elmore; David J. Stensrud; Kenneth C. Crawford

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 1–4 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, ...

Andreas P. Weigel; Daniel Baggenstos; Mark A. Liniger; Frédéric Vitart; Christof Appenzeller

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

122

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

123

A Forecast for the California Labor Market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

issue for the state. A Forecast for the California Laborto Go? ” The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation andAngeles: UCLA Anderson Forecast: Nation 1.1 – 1.9. Dhawan,

Mitchell, Daniel J. B.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK STAFFREPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400.................................................................................. 9 Sources of Forecast Error....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2

125

Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...

David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality of such forecasts can ...

Cristina Primo; Christopher A. T. Ferro; Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

128

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical modeling Celia Frank and Ashish Garg, USA Les Sztandera Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, PA, USA Keywords Apparel, Forecasting average (MA), auto- regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since

Raheja, Amar

129

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

Forecasting Electric Vehicle Costs with Experience Curves  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

April, 5. R 2~1. Dino. "Forecasting the Price Evolution of 1ElectromcProducts," Ioumal of Forecasting, ĄoL4, No I, 1985.costs and a set of forecasting tools that can be refined as

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...

Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both sea ice forecast models and methods to measure their skill are needed for operational sea ice forecasting. Two simple sea ice models are described and tested here. Four different measures of skill are also tested. The forecasts from the ...

Robert W. Grumbine

1998-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

134

Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.

James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

135

On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weather prediction model. The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather model using an ensemble approach. The accuracy of the forecast trends and uncertainty bounds are validated using real meteorological data. We present a numerical simulation study in a building system to demonstrate the developments.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

136

The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

When professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analyzed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.

Allan W. Gregory; James Yetman; Jel Codes C E; Robert Eggert; Fred Joutz

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

Background pollution forecast over bulgaria  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...

D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

Frequency Dependence in Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method is proposed to calculate measures of forecast skill for high, medium and low temporal frequency variations in the atmosphere. This method is applied to a series of 128 consecutive 1 to 10-day forecasts produced at NMC with their ...

H. M. van Den Dool; Suranjana Saha

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate… (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Title Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

142

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

143

The Transportation Revenue Estimator and Needs Determination System (TRENDS) Model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

.......................................................... 15 3.3 Indexing the Motor Fuels Tax, inflation rates, taxes, fees and other elements. The output is a set of tables and graphs showing a forecast................................................................................................. 12 TRENDS Model Revenue Enhancements Tab 3.1 State Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Variables

144

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector In the IEO2005 projections, end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors varies widely among regions and from country to country. One way of looking at the future of world energy markets is to consider trends in energy consumption at the end-use sector level. With the exception of the transportation sector, which is almost universally dominated by petroleum products at present, the mix of energy use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can vary widely from country to country, depending on a combination of regional factors, such as the availability of energy resources, the level of economic development, and political, social, and demographic factors. This chapter outlines the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) forecast for regional energy consumption by end-use sector.

145

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast

146

Trends in Exploitation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CSW upda te NOVEMBER 2011 Trends in Exploitation Labor Traf?Study of Women cosponsored “Trends in Exploitation: La- borand policy advocacy the trend in labor exploita- tion can be

Fardin, Halina

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

Asian Defense Spending Trends  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1, APRIL 2013 Asian Defense Spending Trends David J. BERTEAUT his brief summarizes key trends and findings of two recentin gen- eral permits better trend analysis and cross-country

BERTEAU, David; HOFBAUER, Joachim

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Techniques for Use in Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Quantitative hydrologic forecasting usually requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. First, it is important to accurately measure the precipitation falling over a particular watershed of interest. Second, ...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Michael D. Hudlow

1984-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l­ Load forecast methodology ­ Drivers of the forecast f i­ Treatment of conservation ­ Incorporating impact of weather ­ Forecast for 2019 #12;Regional Loads (MWA and MW)Regional Loads (MWA and MW

150

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

151

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia

152

Combining forecast weights: Why and how?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions

Yip Chee Yin; Ng Kok-Haur; Lim Hock-Eam

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY dmitry.kucharavy@insa-strasbourg.fr Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

154

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

155

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form

156

Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates

157

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

158

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

159

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

Fuzzy forecasting with DNA computing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

There are many forecasting techniques including: exponential smoothing, ARIMA model, GARCH model, neural networks and genetic algorithm, etc. Since financial time series may be influenced by many factors, conventional model based techniques and hard ...

Don Jyh-Fu Jeng; Junzo Watada; Berlin Wu; Jui-Yu Wu

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Sampling Errors in Seasonal Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The limited numbers of start dates and ensemble sizes in seasonal forecasts lead to sampling errors in predictions. Defining the magnitude of these sampling errors would be useful for end users as well as informing decisions on resource ...

Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

Scoring Rules for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of probabilistic forecast verification is approached from a theoretical point of view starting from three basic desiderata: additivity, exclusive dependence on physical observations (“locality”), and strictly proper behavior. By ...

Riccardo Benedetti

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Wavelets and Field Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current field forecast verification measures are inadequate, primarily because they compress the comparison between two complex spatial field processes into one number. Discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) applied to analysis and contemporaneous ...

William M. Briggs; Richard A. Levine

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity ...

Peter Lynch

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...

Marion P. Mittermaier

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numerical–statistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value ...

Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near–real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...

Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...

J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...

Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Differences of opinion exist among forecasters—and between forecasters and users—regarding the meaning of the phrase “good (bad) weather forecasts.” These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or understanding concerning the ...

Allan H. Murphy

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, fire managers need ...

Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

Light truck forecasts  

SciTech Connect

The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.

Liepins, G.E.

1979-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

175

Forecasting new gas users  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Each year hundreds of oil or electric customers call Boston Gas to ask about fuel-switching. What do they look for? A gas utility can boost sales only one way-by gaining new customers. And in today`s slowly growing economy, conservation trends limit growth opportunities. The average household today uses two-thirds the energy of 15 years ago. Commercial and industrial (C/I) customers also conserve. If a gas utility is to grow, a majority of its new customers will likely come from competing fuels, such as oil or electricity.

Lonshteyn, A. [Boston Gas Co., MA (United States)

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

Base Resource Forecasts - Power Marketing - Sierra Nevada Region...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Marketing > Base Resource Forecasts Base Resource Forecasts Note: Annual, rolling (monthly for 12 months), base resource forecasts are posted when they become available. Annual...

177

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...

178

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts

179

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute of89 (1999) 109—129 Forecasting new product penetration with ?

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

Overestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a TDM Policy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

M. , Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy.change and social forecasting: the case of telecommuting asOverestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a

Tal, Gil

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Forecasting US CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

F. Hendry (eds), Economic Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing,W. : 2002, Macroeconomic forecasting using di?usion indexes,2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country

Steinhauser, Ralf; Auffhammer, Maximilian

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

NoVaS Transformations: Flexible Inference for Volatility Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Correlation Forecasting” in G. Elliott, C.W.J.Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland,Transformations”, forthcoming in Forecasting in the Presence

Politis, Dimitris N; Thomakos, Dimitrios D

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute ofchoice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel89 (1999) 109—129 Forecasting new product penetration with

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J.2000), Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J.F.F. (2006), The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability

Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

P, Fitzgerald G: Regression forecasting of patient admissionapproach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergencySJ, Haug PJ, Snow GL: Forecasting daily patient volumes in

Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

Forecasting Danerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

costs could alter forecasting skill and the predictors thatForecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofOn-Line Working Paper Series Forecasting Dangerous Inmate

Berk, Richard A.; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, John-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

187

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible

Richard A. Berk; Susan B. Sorenson; Yan He

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Goulias Page 84 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:Goulias Page 80 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:L. Demographic Forecasting with a Dynamic Stochastic

Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Goulias, Konstadinos G.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

Biennial Assessment of the Fifth Power Plan Interim Report on Electric Price Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2012. This is because high natural gas prices result in a shift to wind and coal generation. Figure 2 the Aurora forecast was based on medium trend natural gas prices and average water conditions. The spike in electric prices during the fall and winter of 2005 are due to high natural gas prices following hurricanes

190

Detecting and forecasting economic regimes in multi-agent automated exchanges  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We show how an autonomous agent can use observable market conditions to characterize the microeconomic situation of the market and predict market trends. The agent can use this information for tactical decisions, such as pricing, and strategic decisions, ... Keywords: Agent-mediated electronic commerce, Dynamic pricing, Machine learning, Market forecasting, Trading agents

Wolfgang Ketter; John Collins; Maria Gini; Alok Gupta; Paul Schrater

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

Modelling and forecasting tourism from East Asia to Thailand under temporal and spatial aggregation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Tourism is one of the key service industries in Thailand, with a 5.27% share of Gross Domestic Product in 2003. Since 2000, international tourist arrivals, particularly those from East Asia, to Thailand have been on a continuous upward trend. Tourism ... Keywords: Autoregressive integrated moving average, Forecast, Spatial aggregation, Tourism

Chia-Lin Chang; Songsak Sriboonchitta; Aree Wiboonpongse

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

192

5 World Oil Trends WORLD OIL TRENDS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

5 World Oil Trends Chapter 1 WORLD OIL TRENDS INTRODUCTION In considering the outlook for California's petroleum supplies, it is important to give attention to expecta- tions of what the world oil market. Will world oil demand increase and, if so, by how much? How will world oil prices be affected

193

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

194

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

195

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

A Review of Numerical Forecast Guidance for Hurricane Hugo  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerical forecast guidance for Hurricane Hugo from the National Meteorological Center is examined, as well as forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. No one forecast product ...

John H. Ward

1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery orders using forecasts provided by their customers. Our goal is to improve the supplier's operations through a better un- derstanding of the customers's forecast behavior. Unfortunately, customer forecasts

Murphy, Robert F.

198

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...

Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

Retrospective Evaluation of Appliance Price Trends  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Evaluation of Appliance Price Trends Evaluation of Appliance Price Trends Title Retrospective Evaluation of Appliance Price Trends Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication 2009 Authors Dale, Larry L., Camille Antinori, Michael A. McNeil, James E. McMahon, and Sydny K. Fujita Journal Energy Policy Volume 37 Issue 2 Pagination 597-605 Date Published November 20 Keywords appliance efficiency standards, price forecasts, EES-EG Abstract Real prices of major appliances (refrigerators, dishwashers, heating and cooling equipment) have been falling since the late 1970s despite increases in appliance efficiency and other quality variables. This paper demonstrates that historic increases in efficiency over time, including those resulting from minimum efficiency standards, incur smaller price increases than were expected by the Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts made in conjunction with standards. This effect can be explained by technological innovation, which lowers the cost of efficiency, and by market changes contributing to lower markups and economies of scale in production of higher efficiency units. We reach four principal conclusions about appliance trends and retail price setting:1. For the past several decades, the retail price of appliances has been steadily falling while efficiency has been increasing.2. Past retail price predictions made by the DOE analyses of efficiency standards, assuming constant prices over time, have tended to overestimate retail prices.3. The average incremental price to increase appliance efficiency has declined over time. DOE technical support documents have typically overestimated this incremental price and retail prices.4. Changes in retail markups and economies of scale in production of more efficient appliances may have contributed to declines in prices of efficient appliances.

200

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical ...

Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson; Ted L. Tsui

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society “ENSO forecast plume” during the 2002–11 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

Local Forecast Communication In The Altiplano  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts play an important role in planting decisions for Andean peasant producers. Predictions of the upcoming cropping season determine when, where, and what farmers will plant. This research looks at the sources of forecast information used ...

Jere L. Gilles; Corinne Valdivia

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...

Lance F. Bosart

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (...

Andreas Röpnack; Andreas Hense; Christoph Gebhardt; Detlev Majewski

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

Value from Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explores the objective application of ambiguity information, that is, the uncertainty in forecast probability derived from an ensemble. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with forecast uncertainty ...

Mark S. Allen; F. Anthony Eckel

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

Forecaster Workstation Design: Concepts and Issues  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Some basic ideas about designing a meteorological workstation for operational weather forecasting are presented, in part as a complement to the recently published discussion of workstation design by R. R. Hoffman. Scientific weather forecasting ...

Charles A. Doswell III

1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...

Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem

2004-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

208

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing

de Lijser, Peter

209

Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

Trepte, Kai

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...

Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

211

Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because ...

Eric Gilleland; David Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Barbara Casati; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, ...

Emily Wallace; Alberto Arribas

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for River Basins  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology has been formulated to aid a field forecaster in preparing probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for river basins. The format of probabilistic QPF is designed to meet three requirements: (i) it is compatible with ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; William J. Drzal; Theresa Rossi Drake; James C. Weyman; Louis A. Giordano

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

A General Framework for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described. For further elaboration of the framework, two factorizations of the joint distribution are investigated: 1) the calibration-...

Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler

1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

Management of supply chain: an alternative modelling technique for forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view

Datta, Shoumen

2007-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

217

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.

218

Forecasting Techniques Utilized by the Forecast Branch of the National Meteorological Center During a Major Convective Rainfall Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Meteorologists within the Forecast Branch (FB) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) produce operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). These manual forecasts are prepared utilizing various forecasting techniques, which are ...

Theodore W. Funk

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the U.S. National Weather Service  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast verification in operational hydrology has been very limited to date, mainly due to the complexity of verifying both forcing input forecasts and hydrologic forecasts on multiple space–time scales. However, forecast verification needs to ...

Julie Demargne; Mary Mullusky; Kevin Werner; Thomas Adams; Scott Lindsey; Noreen Schwein; William Marosi; Edwin Welles

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis  

SciTech Connect

This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.

Cazalet, E.G.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

that are fit for their purpose; for example, returningaggregate county and sector forecasts that are consistent by construction....

Satchell, Stephen E; Wright, Stephen M

2006-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

222

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

223

Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...

2013-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

224

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

225

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

226

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

227

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

228

Load forecast and treatment of conservation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservation in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast

229

FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs

230

STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 report, Staff Forecast: Retail Electricity Prices, 2005 to 2018, was prepared with contributions from the technical assistance provided by Greg Broeking of R.W. Beck, Inc. in preparing retail price forecasts

231

Blue Chip Consensus US GDP Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and metro area from Moody’s Economy.com Equivalent to US-level Gross Domestic Product ? The GMP forecasts have a large impact on the peak load forecasts Rule of thumb: 1 % growth in RTO GMP ? approx. 1,000 MW growth in forecast RTO peak load

James F. Wilson

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

233

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used

234

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

235

Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity 29, 2012 Preliminary Results of the Electricity Price Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity market price forecast. A summary of the work

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

236

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

237

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

238

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach can forecast the price of a notebook computer up to four months in advance of its introduction with an average error of under 10% and the rate of price erosion to within 10% of the price for seven months after introduction-the length of the typical life cycle of a notebook. Since all data are publicly available, this approach can be used to assist managerial decision making in the notebook computer industry, for example, in determining when and how to upgrade a model and when to introduce a new model.

Rutherford, Derek Paul

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

239

How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.

2001-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

240

Probabilistic Performance Forecasting for Unconventional Reservoirs With Stretched-Exponential Model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Reserves estimation in an unconventional-reservoir setting is a daunting task because of geologic uncertainty and complex flow patterns evolving in a long-stimulated horizontal well, among other variables. To tackle this complex problem, we present a reserves-evaluation workflow that couples the traditional decline-curve analysis with a probabilistic forecasting frame. The stretched-exponential production decline model (SEPD) underpins the production behavior. Our recovery appraisal workflow has two different applications: forecasting probabilistic future performance of wells that have production history; and forecasting production from new wells without production data. For the new field case, numerical model runs are made in accord with the statistical design of experiments for a range of design variables pertinent to the field of interest. In contrast, for the producing wells the early-time data often need adjustments owing to restimulation, installation of artificial-lift, etc. to focus on the decline trend. Thereafter, production data of either new or existing wells are grouped in accord with initial rates to obtain common SEPD parameters for similar wells. After determining the distribution of model parameters using well grouping, the methodology establishes a probabilistic forecast for individual wells. We present a probabilistic performance forecasting methodology in unconventional reservoirs for wells with and without production history. Unlike other probabilistic forecasting tools, grouping wells with similar production character allows estimation of self-consistent SEPD parameters and alleviates the burden of having to define uncertainties associated with reservoir and well-completion parameters.

Can, Bunyamin

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Following the leader: A study of individual analysts’ earnings forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops and tests procedures for identifying lead analysts based on the timeliness of analyst forecast revisions, the trading levels associated with these revisions, and forecast accuracy. Our framework provides an objective assessment of analyst quality that differs from the standard approach that uses survey evidence to rate analysts. Using a sample of equity analysts, we find that lead analysts identified by our procedures have more price impact than follower analysts. Evidence also is presented that suggests analysts use recent stock price trends to help them modify forecast revisions, regardless of whether the analyst is a leader or a follower. Finally, we find that our ranking procedures based on timeliness, trading volume, and accuracy are consistent. That is, if analysts are selected as Full service brokerage firms provide many services to their customers in addition to the execution of trades. One such service is the provision of information concerning the investment value of equity securities. This information is typically produced by analysts with expertise in tracking certain industries and selected firms within those industries. The

Rick A. Cooper; Theodore E. Day; Craig M. Lewis

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

Lemont, S.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

1984 market trends for the air pollution control industry  

SciTech Connect

January 1984 forecasts by The McIlvaine Company project variable but promising worldwide industry trends for the coming year. The influence on the market of air pollution legislation (in particular, acid rain legislation), gauged by utility planning trends, is discussed in the context of a shifting world market. Specialties within the segmented air pollution control market are categorized by the ''market leader'' concept, with which the author identifies a number of top companies as ''world market leaders.''

McIlvaine, R.W.

1984-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

Understanding the China energy market: trends and opportunities 2006  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The report is broken up into 4 Sections: Section I - Overview of China Energy Market (historical background, market value, consumption, production, reserves, export and import, market segmentation, market forecast); Section II - Market Analysis (PEST analysis, Porter's five forces analysis, socio-economic trends, consumption trends); Section III - Market Segments (electricity, oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, liquid petroleum gas, nuclear power, coal, renewables, photovoltaics, wind power, hydroelectric power. Each market segment details current and planned projects, and lists participants in that sector); and Section IV - Breaking Into the Market (regulatory framework, methods of market entry, foreign investment, challenges, government agencies).

Barbara Drazga

2005-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

245

Regional load-curve models: scenario and forecast using the DRI model. Final report. [Forecasts of electric power loads in 32 US regions  

SciTech Connect

Regional load curve models were constructed for 32 regions that have been created by aggregating hourly load data from 146 electric utilities. These utilities supply approximately 95% of the electricity consumed in the continental US. The 32 models forecast electricity demands by hour, 8784 regional load forecasts per year. Because projections are made for each hour in the year, contemporaneous forecasts are available for peak demands, megawatt hour demands, load factors, load duration curves, and typical load shapes. The forecast scenario is described and documented in this volume and the forecast resulting from the use of this scenario is presented. The highlights of this forecast are two observations: (1) peak demands will once again become winter phenomena. By the year 2000, 18 of the 32 regions peak in a winter month as compared with the 8 winter peaking regions in 1977. In the heating season, the model is responsive to the number of heating degree-hours, the penetration rate of electric heating equipment, and the rate at which this space conditioning equipment is utilized, which itself is functionally dependent on the level of real electricity prices and real incomes. Thus, as the penetration rate of electric heating equipment increases, winter season demands grow more rapidly than demands in other seasons and peaks begin to appear in winter months; and (2) load factors begin to increase in the forecast, reversing the trend which began in the early 1960s. Nationally, load factors do not leap upwards, instead they increase gradually from .609 in 1977 to .629 in the year 2000. The improvement is more consequential in some regions, with load factors increasing, at times, by .10 or more. In some regions, load factors continue to decline.

Platt, H.D.

1981-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II uses the method of structural factor analysis to study the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in a data rich environment. I propose two structural factor models. One is the structural factor augmented vector autoregressive (SFAVAR) model and the other is the structural factor vector autoregressive (SFVAR) model. Compared to the traditional vector autogression (VAR) model, both models incorporate far more information from hundreds of data series, series that can be and are monitored by the Central Bank. Moreover, the factors used are structurally meaningful, a feature that adds to the understanding of the �black box� of the monetary transmission mechanism. Both models generate qualitatively reasonable impulse response functions. Using the SFVAR model, both the �price puzzle� and the �liquidity puzzle� are eliminated. Chapter III employs the method of structural factor analysis to conduct a forecasting exercise in a data rich environment. I simulate out-of-sample real time forecasting using a structural dynamic factor forecasting model and its variations. I use several structural factors to summarize the information from a large set of candidate explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)�s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor forecasting models compared to alternatives that include univariate autoregression (AR) model, the VAR model and Stock and Watson�s (2002) models, especially when forecasting real variables. In chapter IV, we measure U.S. technology shocks by implementing a dual approach, which is based on more reliable price data instead of aggregate quantity data. By doing so, we find the relative volatility of technology shocks and the correlation between output fluctuation and technology shocks to be much smaller than those revealed in most real-business-cycle (RBC) studies. Our results support the findings of Burnside, Eichenbaum and Rebelo (1996), who showed that the correlation between technology shocks and output is exaggerated in the RBC literature. This suggests that one should examine other sources of fluctuations for a better understanding of the business cycle phenomena.

Liu, Dandan

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

247

Radiometer Calibration Trends  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Radiometer Calibration Trends S. M. Wilcox, T. L. Stoffel, and D. R. Myers National Renewable Energy Laboratory Golden, Colorado Abstract Calibrations of Atmospheric Radiation...

248

Trends, Cycles, and Kinks  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

This presentation given at the OPIS 11th National Supply Summit looks at the impacts of the recent resession and changing market trends on refinery investment and ...

249

Trends Online Methane Emissions  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Emissions Introduction Annual Estimates of Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions: 1860-1994 - D.I. Stern and R.K. Kaufmann Contents-Trends | CDIAC Home 102001...

250

Forecasting Techniques The Use of Hourly Model-Generated Soundings to Forecast Mesoscale Phenomena. Part I: Initial Assessment in Forecasting Warm-Season Phenomena  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since late 1995, NCEP has made available to forecasters hourly model guidance at selected sites in the form of vertical profiles of various forecast fields. These profiles provide forecasters with increased temporal resolution and greater ...

Robert E. Hart; Gregory S. Forbes; Richard H. Grumm

1998-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document represents the progress report and Task 1 letter report of the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) contract funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC), Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF) for California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Planning Phase. Task 1 was to accomplish the following items: Collect data from CAISO to set up the WECC power flow base case representing the CAISO system in the summer of 2006 Run TRACE for maximizing California Impo...

2006-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

252

Meese-Rogoff redux: Micro-based exchange-rate forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Johnatban. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We'veBased Exchange-Rate Forecasting By MARTIN D . D . EVANS ANDon longer-horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over

Evans, MDD; Lyons, Richard K.

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

253

The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasters,” Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 28, No. 2, Mar,of Macroeconomic Forecasting” Journal of Macroeconomics,of Federal Reserve Forecasting,” Journal of Macroeconomics,

Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

254

Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and V. Letschert (2005). Forecasting Electricity Demand in8364 Material World: Forecasting Household ApplianceMcNeil, 2008). Forecasting Diffusion Forecasting Variables

Letschert, Virginie

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database  

SciTech Connect

This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

Political search trends  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We present Political Search Trends, a browser based web search analysis tool that (i) assigns a political leaning to web search queries, (ii) detects trending political queries in a given week, and (iii) links search queries to fact-checked statements. ... Keywords: fact-checking, partisanship, political blogs, query log mining

Ingmar Weber; Venkata Rama Kiran Garimella; Erik Borra

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

Application of partial mutual information variable selection to ANN forecasting of water quality in water distribution systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Recent trends in the management of water supply have increased the need for modelling techniques that can provide reliable, efficient, and accurate representation of the complex, non-linear dynamics of water quality within water distribution systems. ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Chlorine disinfection, Chlorine residual forecasting, Input variable selection, Partial mutual information, Water quality modelling

Robert J. May; Graeme C. Dandy; Holger R. Maier; John B. Nixon

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2000 NEW JERSEY of growth will decelerate over the forecast period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey in 2000 looks to decelerate over the course of the forecast. These forces will combine to push the unemployment rate to more

259

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling A NOAA of the NWS's forecast products, even its regional forecast products, are constrained by the limitations of NOAA's global forecast model. Unfortunately, our global forecasts are less accurate than those from

Hamill, Tom

260

Mathematical and computer modelling reports: Modeling and forecasting energy markets with the intermediate future forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the ...

Frederic H. Murphy; John J. Conti; Susan H. Shaw; Reginald Sanders

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using one- to seven-day ensemble forecasts of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

262

Using National Air Quality Forecast Guidance to Develop Local Air Quality Index Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) currently provides next-day forecasts of ozone concentrations over the contiguous United States. It was developed collaboratively by NOAA and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in order to ...

Brian Eder; Daiwen Kang; S. Trivikrama Rao; Rohit Mathur; Shaocai Yu; Tanya Otte; Ken Schere; Richard Wayland; Scott Jackson; Paula Davidson; Jeff McQueen; George Bridgers

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest evaluated the skill of ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Daniel S. Wilks

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Evaluating the propagation of errors associated with ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) into the ensemble streamflow response is important to reduce uncertainty in operational flow forecasting. In this paper, a multifractal ...

Giuseppe Mascaro; Enrique R. Vivoni; Roberto Deidda

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

267

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system obtained ...

David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

The Impact of Writing Area Forecast Discussions on Student Forecaster Performance  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A brief study is provided on the forecast performance of students who write a mock area forecast discussion (AFD) on a weekly basis. Student performance was tracked for one semester (11 weeks) during the University of Missouri—Columbia's local ...

Patrick S. Market

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...

Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for water resources planning and management as well as for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. In this study, operational streamflow forecasts are ...

A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Susan Espinueva

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work examines the performance of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEP’s coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in near–real time. ...

Kyong-Hwan Seo; Wanqiu Wang; Jon Gottschalck; Qin Zhang; Jae-Kyung E. Schemm; Wayne R. Higgins; Arun Kumar

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

Further Evaluation of the National Meterological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model Precpitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated ...

John O. Roads; T. Norman Maisal; Jordan Alpert

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability? M. Hashem Pesaran University of Cambridge, CIMF, and USC Andreas Pick University of Cambridge, CIMF March 11, 2008 Abstract This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used... but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single...

Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

275

Solar future: 1978. [Market forecast to 1992  

SciTech Connect

The growth in sales of solar heating equipment is discussed. Some forecasts are made for the continued market growth of collectors, pool systems, and photovoltaics. (MOW)

Butt, S.H.

1978-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

Energy conservation and official UK energy forecasts  

SciTech Connect

Behind the latest United Kingdom (UK) official forecasts of energy demand are implicit assumptions about future energy-price elasticities. Mr. Pearce examines the basis of the forecasts and finds that the long-term energy-price elasticities that they imply are two or three times too low. The official forecasts substantially understate the responsiveness of demand to energy price rises. If more-realistic price elasticities were assumed, the official forecasts would imply a zero primary energy-demand growth to 2000. This raises the interesting possibility of a low energy future being brought about entirely by market forces. 15 references, 3 tables.

Pearce, D.

1980-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past Santa Fe Institute Proceedings on the Studies in the Sciences of ...

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

279

Rolling 12 Month Forecast November-2008.xls  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Month Exceedence Level: 90% (Dry) First Preference CVP Generation Project Use November 2008 October 2009 November 2008 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource...

280

Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

Koottatep, Pakawkul

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract--In deregulated electricity markets, short-term load forecasting is important for reliable power322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting presents a similar day-based wavelet neural network method to forecast tomorrow's load. The idea

Tesfatsion, Leigh

282

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets MISO NYISO PJM ERCOT CAISO Peak load 109,157 MW (7 ........................................................................................... 18 4 WIND POWER FORECASTING AND ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATIONS............................................................ 18 4-1 Market Operation and Wind Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets .......... 21 #12

Kemner, Ken

283

The Application of Trend Following Strategies in Stock Market Trading Simon Fong, Jackie Tai  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

moves without regards to the past price performance. In contrast with most prediction tools that stemmed use this approach can use current market price calculation, moving averages and channel breakouts following strategy do not aim to forecast or predict markets; they simply jump on the trend and ride it

Fong, Chi Chiu "Simon"

284

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

285

Forecasting during the Lake-ICE/SNOWBANDS Field Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite improvements in numerical weather prediction models, statistical models, forecast decision trees, and forecasting rules of thumb, human interpretation of meteorological information for a particular forecast situation can still yield a ...

Peter J. Sousounis; Greg E. Mann; George S. Young; Richard B. Wagenmaker; Bradley D. Hoggatt; William J. Badini

1999-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-...

Stanley A. Changnon; Joyce M. Changnon; David Changnon

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

Forecasting and Verifying in a Field Research Project: DOPLIGHT '87  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Verification of forecasts during research field experiments is discussed and exemplified using the DOPLIGHT '87 experiment. We stress the importance of forecast verification if forecasting is to be a serious component of the research. A direct ...

Charles A. Doswell III; John A. Flueck

1989-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

A Probabilistic Forecast Approach for Daily Precipitation Totals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Commonly, postprocessing techniques are employed to calibrate a model forecast. Here, a probabilistic postprocessor is presented that provides calibrated probability and quantile forecasts of precipitation on the local scale. The forecasts are ...

Petra Friederichs; Andreas Hense

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The role of the human forecaster in improving upon the accuracy of numerical weather prediction is explored using multi-year verification of human-generated short-range precipitation forecasts and medium-range maximum temperature forecasts from ...

David R. Novak; Christopher Bailey; Keith Brill; Patrick Burke; Wallace Hogsett; Robert Rausch; Michael Schichtel

290

Prediction of Consensus Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The extent to which the tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast error of a consensus model (CONU) routinely used by the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center can be predicted is determined. A number of predictors of consensus forecast error, ...

James S. Goerss

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

An Experiment in Mesoscale Weather Forecasting in the Michigan Area  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During an experiment in mesoscale weather forecasting in the Michigan area, consensus improved over NWS guidance in maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation forecasts out to 24 hours. Forecasts were generally best in the ...

Dennis G. Baker

1986-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration that is applied to ...

Yuejian Zhu; Zoltan Toth; Richard Wobus; David Richardson; Kenneth Mylne

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...

Ramón de Elía; René Laprise

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

An Alternative Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Verification Technique  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts are included in a ...

Sim D. Aberson

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

On the Reliability and Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An important aspect of ensemble forecasting is that the resulting probabilities are reliable (i.e., the forecast probabilities match the observed frequencies). In the medium-range forecasting context, the literature tends to focus on the ...

Christine Johnson; Neill Bowler

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a long-standing aim in meteorological forecasting. This paper explains the ...

Jochen Bröcker; Leonard A. Smith

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

Experiments in Temperature and Precipitation Forecasting for Illinois  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Six years of daily temperature and precipitation forecasting are studied for Urbana, Illinois. Minimum temperature forecast skills, measured against a climatological control, are 57%, 48%, 34% and 20% for the respective forecast ranges of one, ...

John R. Gyakum

1986-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

298

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the entire forecast period, primarily because both weather-adjusted peak and electricity consumption were forecast. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather normalization, annual peak demand, natural gas demand, self-generation, conservation, California Solar Initiative. #12

299

Trending: Metal Oxo Bonds  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Trending: Metal Oxo Bonds Trending: Metal Oxo Bonds Trending: Metal Oxo Bonds Print Wednesday, 29 May 2013 00:00 Metal oxides are important for scientific and technical applications in a variety of disciplines, including materials science, chemistry, and biology. Highly covalent metal-oxygen multiple bonds (metal oxos) are the building blocks of metal oxides and have a bearing on the oxide's desirable chemical, magnetic, electronic, and thermal properties. The lack of a more sophisticated grasp of bonding in metal oxides constitutes a roadblock to innovation in a wide variety of important emergent technologies, including industrial catalysis, biomimetic transformations, and artificial photosynthesis. To address this problem, a research team from four national laboratories, three Department of Energy synchrotron user facilities, and the University of Washington has applied spectroscopic and computational analyses to a number of metal oxides, quantifying trends in metal oxo bonding for groups of metals across the periodic table.

300

Trends in stationary energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Trends in stationary energy Trends in stationary energy Colin McCormick Senior Advisor for R&D Office of the Under Secretary US Department of Energy Building Technologies Office Peer Review 2013 April 2013 2 Under Secretary of Energy * Oversee the applied energy programs * Efficiency & Renewables * Electric grid * Fossil energy * Nuclear energy * Indian energy * Support interactions with Office of Science, ARPA-E * Support cross-cutting topics in energy systems * Energy systems interaction * Water-energy nexus * Bulk energy storage * Energy finance * International Lab engagement * Quadrennial Technology Review (QTR) 3 2013: Already a busy year for energy 4 Some notable trends in stationary energy The water-energy nexus The rise of natural gas Global trends New models for the grid

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Occurrence Reporting Trends  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Reporting and Processing of Reporting and Processing of Operations Information (ORPS): Five Year Trends 1 * The trend of Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) occurrences across the Complex has been steady over the past five years. The trend of occurrence reports appears to trend very closely with changes in man hours worked. * The proportion of those occurrences that are considered high consequence occurrences has decreased from approximately 30 percent in 2007 to 15 percent in 2012. High consequence occurrences are defined as occurrences that are assigned either an ORPS Significance Category 1, 2 or Operational Emergency (OE), or a 13A (HQ Significant highlighted for Management attention). 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2

302

Trends in stationary energy  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Trends in stationary energy Trends in stationary energy Colin McCormick Senior Advisor for R&D Office of the Under Secretary US Department of Energy Building Technologies Office Peer Review 2013 April 2013 2 Under Secretary of Energy * Oversee the applied energy programs * Efficiency & Renewables * Electric grid * Fossil energy * Nuclear energy * Indian energy * Support interactions with Office of Science, ARPA-E * Support cross-cutting topics in energy systems * Energy systems interaction * Water-energy nexus * Bulk energy storage * Energy finance * International Lab engagement * Quadrennial Technology Review (QTR) 3 2013: Already a busy year for energy 4 Some notable trends in stationary energy The water-energy nexus The rise of natural gas Global trends New models for the grid

303

4. Net Generation Trends  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

decrease in industrial retail sales over the same period. The average U.S. retail price of electricity continued to show an upward trend in February 2009 from the previous...

304

Trends, Cycles, and Kinks  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

This presentation given at the OPIS 11th National Supply Summit looks at the impacts of the recent resession and changing market trends on refinery investment and trade patterns in the Atlantic Basin.

Information Center

2009-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

305

Price and Load Forecasting in Volatile Energy Markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

With daily news stories about wildly fluctuating electricity prices and soaring natural gas prices, forecasters' responsibilities are expanding, visibility is increasing, and pressure exists to produce more frequent forecasts and more kinds of forecasts. The proceedings of EPRI's 13th Forecasting Symposium, held November 13-15 in Nashville, Tennessee, address current forecasting issues and developments, as well as explain the role that forecasters have played in recent events in energy markets.

2001-12-05T23:59:59.000Z

306

Cesarean Delivery: Factors Affecting Trends  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

SM, Placek PJ, Liss T. Trends in the United States cesareanTW, Erner BK, Oser TL. Trends in the frequency of cesareancesarean birth epidemic: trends, causes, and solutions. Am J

Cheng, Yvonne

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

both secular cycles and millennial up- ward trend dynamics.Cycles and Millennial Trends by Andrey Korotayev, ArtemySecular Cycles and Millennial Trends 1 Initially, we want to

Korotayev, Andrey V; Malkov, Artemy S; Khaltourina, Daria A

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

forecasts  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 106. Average annual minemouth coal prices by region, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per million Btu) Appalachia Interior West US Average

309

Possibility of Skill Forecast Based on the Finite-Time Dominant Linear Solutions for a Primitive Equation Regional Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The possibility of using forecast errors originating from the finite-time dominant linear modes for the prediction of forecast skill for a primitive equation regional forecast model is studied. This is similar to the method for skill prediction ...

Tomislava Vuki?evi?

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

Blasting Vibration Forecast Base on Neural Network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The influence of blasting vibration to surroundings around the blasting area can not be ignored, in order to guarantee the safety of surroundings around blasting area, blasting vibration forecasting model based on neural network is established by improved ... Keywords: Blasting vibration, Neural network, Forecast

Haiwang Ye; Fang Liu; Jian Chang; Lin Feng; Yang Wang; Peng Yao; Kai Wu

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

Evaluating the Skill of Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A generalized skill score is presented for evaluating forecasts in any number of categories. Each forecast in a sample is given a mark; the skill score for the sample is just the average mark. Each mark has an expected value of zero for an ...

Neil D. Gordon

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

Making Forecasts and Weather Normalization Work Together  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Electric utility industry restructuring has changed the consistency between weather-normalized sales and energy forecasts. This Technology Review discusses the feasibility of integrating weather normalization and forecasting processes, and addresses whether the conflicting goal of obtaining greater consistency and accuracy with fewer staff resources can be met with more integrated approaches.

2000-09-11T23:59:59.000Z

313

Forecasting demand of commodities after natural disasters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Demand forecasting after natural disasters is especially important in emergency management. However, since the time series of commodities demand after natural disasters usually has a great deal of nonlinearity and irregularity, it has poor prediction ... Keywords: ARIMA, Demand forecasting, EMD, Emergency management, Natural disaster

Xiaoyan Xu; Yuqing Qi; Zhongsheng Hua

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled Reanalysis ...

Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; David Behringer; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-ya Chuang; Mark Iredell; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Malaquías Peńa Mendez; Huug van den Dool; Qin Zhang; Wanqiu Wang; Mingyue Chen; Emily Becker

315

Efficient forecasting for hierarchical time series  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting is used as the basis for business planning in many application areas such as energy, sales and traffic management. Time series data used in these areas is often hierarchically organized and thus, aggregated along the hierarchy levels based ... Keywords: forecasting, hierarchies, optimization, time series

Lars Dannecker; Robert Lorenz; Philipp Rösch; Wolfgang Lehner; Gregor Hackenbroich

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

316

Time series forecasting with Qubit Neural Networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a quantum learning scheme approach for time series forecasting, through the application of the new non-standard Qubit Neural Network (QNN) model. The QNN description was adapted in this work in order to resemble classical Artificial ... Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, quantum computing, qubit neural networks, time series forecasting

Carlos R. B. Azevedo; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

Forecast of geothermal-drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are forecasted. Results of the forecast are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.

Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

Preemptive Forecasts Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) estimates the error statistics of a model forecast using an ensemble of model forecasts. One use of an EnKF is data assimilation, resulting in the creation of an increment to the first-guess field at the ...

Brian J. Etherton

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a distributed model that is in operational use for forecasting flash floods in northern Austria. The main challenge in developing the model was parameter identification which was addressed by a modelling strategy that involved a model ... Keywords: Distributed modelling, Dominant processes concept, Floods, Forecasting, Kalman Filter, Model accuracy, Parameter identification, Stream routing

Günter Blöschl; Christian Reszler; Jürgen Komma

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

Incentives for Retailer Forecasting: Rebates vs. Returns  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper studies a manufacturer that sells to a newsvendor retailer who can improve the quality of her demand information by exerting costly forecasting effort. In such a setting, contracts play two roles: providing incentives to influence the retailer's ... Keywords: endogenous adverse selection, forecasting, rebates, returns, supply chain contracting

Terry A. Taylor; Wenqiang Xiao

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy to someone by E-mail Share SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy...

322

New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering...

323

Exploiting Domain Knowledge to Forecast Heating Oil Consumption  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The GasDay laboratory at Marquette University provides forecasts of energy consumption. One such service is the Heating Oil Forecaster

George F. Corliss; Tsuginosuke Sakauchi; Steven R. Vitullo; Ronald H. Brown

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Alphabetically Tools by Platform PC Mac UNIX Internet Tools by Country Related Links Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides...

325

Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...

Ye, Quanzhi

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

Occurrence Reporting Trends | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Reporting Trends Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information (ORPS): Five Year Trends Occurrence Reporting Trends More Documents & Publications...

328

A Short-Range Forecasting Experiment Conducted during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP), a dedicated forecast center conducted experiments in mesoscale forecasting. Several forecast products, including a marine forecast and a site-specific public forecast, were written every 3 h. ...

K. A. Macdonald; M. Danks; J. D. Abraham

1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

2010-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

330

Decision support for financial forecasting  

SciTech Connect

A primary mission of the Budget Management Division of the Air Force is fiscal analysis. This involves formulating, justifying, and tracking financial data during budget preparation and execution. An essential requirement of this process is the ready availability and easy manipulation of past and current budget data. This necessitates the decentralization of the data. A prototypical system, BAFS (Budget Analysis and Forecasting System), that provides such a capability is presented. In its current state, the system is designed to be a decision support tool. A brief report of the budget decisions and activities is presented. The system structure and its major components are discussed. An insight into the implementation strategies and the tool used is provided. The paper concludes with a discussion of future enhancements and the system's evolution into an expert system. 4 refs., 3 figs.

Jairam, B.N.; Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hardee, H.K.

1988-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

Construction Safety Forecast for ITER  

SciTech Connect

The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project is poised to begin its construction activity. This paper gives an estimate of construction safety as if the experiment was being built in the United States. This estimate of construction injuries and potential fatalities serves as a useful forecast of what can be expected for construction of such a major facility in any country. These data should be considered by the ITER International Team as it plans for safety during the construction phase. Based on average U.S. construction rates, ITER may expect a lost workday case rate of < 4.0 and a fatality count of 0.5 to 0.9 persons per year.

cadwallader, lee charles

2006-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

MSSM Forecast for the LHC  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on $e^+e^-$ data) is considered, the preferred region (for $\\mu>0$) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-$\\mu$ possibilities.

Maria Eugenia Cabrera; Alberto Casas; Roberto Ruiz de Austri

2009-11-24T23:59:59.000Z

333

Trending: Metal Oxo Bonds  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Trending: Metal Oxo Bonds Print Trending: Metal Oxo Bonds Print Metal oxides are important for scientific and technical applications in a variety of disciplines, including materials science, chemistry, and biology. Highly covalent metal-oxygen multiple bonds (metal oxos) are the building blocks of metal oxides and have a bearing on the oxide's desirable chemical, magnetic, electronic, and thermal properties. The lack of a more sophisticated grasp of bonding in metal oxides constitutes a roadblock to innovation in a wide variety of important emergent technologies, including industrial catalysis, biomimetic transformations, and artificial photosynthesis. To address this problem, a research team from four national laboratories, three Department of Energy synchrotron user facilities, and the University of Washington has applied spectroscopic and computational analyses to a number of metal oxides, quantifying trends in metal oxo bonding for groups of metals across the periodic table.

334

Trending: Metal Oxo Bonds  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Trending: Metal Oxo Bonds Print Trending: Metal Oxo Bonds Print Metal oxides are important for scientific and technical applications in a variety of disciplines, including materials science, chemistry, and biology. Highly covalent metal-oxygen multiple bonds (metal oxos) are the building blocks of metal oxides and have a bearing on the oxide's desirable chemical, magnetic, electronic, and thermal properties. The lack of a more sophisticated grasp of bonding in metal oxides constitutes a roadblock to innovation in a wide variety of important emergent technologies, including industrial catalysis, biomimetic transformations, and artificial photosynthesis. To address this problem, a research team from four national laboratories, three Department of Energy synchrotron user facilities, and the University of Washington has applied spectroscopic and computational analyses to a number of metal oxides, quantifying trends in metal oxo bonding for groups of metals across the periodic table.

335

Trending: Metal Oxo Bonds  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Trending: Metal Oxo Bonds Print Trending: Metal Oxo Bonds Print Metal oxides are important for scientific and technical applications in a variety of disciplines, including materials science, chemistry, and biology. Highly covalent metal-oxygen multiple bonds (metal oxos) are the building blocks of metal oxides and have a bearing on the oxide's desirable chemical, magnetic, electronic, and thermal properties. The lack of a more sophisticated grasp of bonding in metal oxides constitutes a roadblock to innovation in a wide variety of important emergent technologies, including industrial catalysis, biomimetic transformations, and artificial photosynthesis. To address this problem, a research team from four national laboratories, three Department of Energy synchrotron user facilities, and the University of Washington has applied spectroscopic and computational analyses to a number of metal oxides, quantifying trends in metal oxo bonding for groups of metals across the periodic table.

336

Trending: Metal Oxo Bonds  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Trending: Metal Oxo Bonds Print Trending: Metal Oxo Bonds Print Metal oxides are important for scientific and technical applications in a variety of disciplines, including materials science, chemistry, and biology. Highly covalent metal-oxygen multiple bonds (metal oxos) are the building blocks of metal oxides and have a bearing on the oxide's desirable chemical, magnetic, electronic, and thermal properties. The lack of a more sophisticated grasp of bonding in metal oxides constitutes a roadblock to innovation in a wide variety of important emergent technologies, including industrial catalysis, biomimetic transformations, and artificial photosynthesis. To address this problem, a research team from four national laboratories, three Department of Energy synchrotron user facilities, and the University of Washington has applied spectroscopic and computational analyses to a number of metal oxides, quantifying trends in metal oxo bonding for groups of metals across the periodic table.

337

Forecasting future volatility from option prices, Working  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Weisbach are gratefully acknowledged. I bear full responsibility for all remaining errors. Forecasting Future Volatility from Option Prices Evidence exists that option prices produce biased forecasts of future volatility across a wide variety of options markets. This paper presents two main results. First, approximately half of the forecasting bias in the S&P 500 index (SPX) options market is eliminated by constructing measures of realized volatility from five minute observations on SPX futures rather than from daily closing SPX levels. Second, much of the remaining forecasting bias is eliminated by employing an option pricing model that permits a non-zero market price of volatility risk. It is widely believed that option prices provide the best forecasts of the future volatility of the assets which underlie them. One reason for this belief is that option prices have the ability to impound all publicly available information – including all information contained in the history of past prices – about the future volatility of the underlying assets. A second related reason is that option pricing theory maintains that if an option prices fails to embody optimal forecasts of the future volatility of the underlying asset, a profitable trading strategy should be available whose implementation would push the option price to the level that reflects the best possible forecast of future volatility.

Allen M. Poteshman

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

General Trends in Cyclic Behavior  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

...martensitic alloys (Ref 6). Similar softening trends are observed for the precipitation-strengthened

339

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

340

Forecast Bias Correction: A Second Order Method  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The difference between a model forecast and actual observations is called forecast bias. This bias is due to either incomplete model assumptions and/or poorly known parameter values and initial/boundary conditions. In this paper we discuss a method for estimating corrections to parameters and initial conditions that would account for the forecast bias. A set of simple experiments with the logistic ordinary differential equation is performed using an iterative version of a first order version of our method to compare with the second order version of the method.

Crowell, Sean

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Industrial production index forecast: Methods comparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this work is to investigate the suitability of different methods as short term forecast tools. It is studied and compared the application of the Kalman filter method with other forecasting methods when applied to a set of qualitative and quantitative information. The work data set is made of qualitative surveys of conjunture and the industrial production index (IPI). The objective is the attainment of short term forecast models for the Portuguese IPI of the transforming industry. After the previous treatment of the data

M. Filomena Teodoro

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy Criteria for Technical forecasts of monsoon can significantly aid many sectors like agriculture, power and production industries to the operational forecast, to develop and deliver customized monsoon forecasts based on user need is required

Swathi, P S

343

Short-term streamflow forecasting: ARIMA vs neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Streamflow forecasting is very important for water resources management and flood defence. In this paper two forecasting methods are compared: ARIMA versus a multilayer perceptron neural network. This comparison is done by forecasting a streamflow of ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, auto regressive integrated moving average, forecasting, streamflow

Juan Frausto-Solis; Esmeralda Pita; Javier Lagunas

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

344

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

Optimal Updating of Forecasts for the Timing of Future Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A major problem in forecasting is estimating the time of some future event. traditionally, forecasts are designed to minimize an error cost function that is evaluated once, possibly when the event occurs and forecast accuracy can be determined. However, ... Keywords: Air Transportation, Dynamic Programming Applications, Forecasting

Juhwen Hwang; Medini R. Singh; W. J. Hurley; Robert A. Shumsky

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand prepared the residential sector forecast. Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Lynn

347

R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1999 NEW and wage growth slow later in the forecast, income growth will average 5% a year between 2000 and 2004. Over the forecast period, population growth will average 0.5% a year. The population will rise from 8

348

R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2001 NEW JERSEY each year. The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey looks for growth in real output of 2.6 percent years. Over the forecast period, both the construction and manufacturing sectors will lose jobs

349

R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2001 NEW JERSEY and 2005, and by an average of 43,000 thereafter (from 2005 to 2020). The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey.6 percent a year over the rest of the forecast period. Personal income will rise 5.6 percent this year, down

350

R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 1999 NEW JERSEY the rate of inflation should remain under 3% a year. (See Table 1.) #12;Throughout the forecast period and wage growth slow later in the forecast period, income growth will average 4.8% a year between 2000

351

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill? Greg Roff,1 forecast skill at high Southern latitudes is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model configurations that differ only in vertical resolution above 100 hPa. An ensemble of twelve 30day forecasts

352

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA or adequacy of the information in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast forecast. Bryan Alcorn and Mehrzad Soltani Nia prepared the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia- Cerrutti

353

R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1998 NEW 1997 will continue-- though at a reduced rate--through the forecast period that ends in 2001. New inflation of about 1.5%. In 1998, R/ECONTM forecasts that employment will rise by 76,000 jobs, or 2

354

R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 2000 NEW JERSEY and 2002, with 84,800 jobs being added over the two-year period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey the rest of the forecast period as foreign immigration declines and the population ages. In the next 10

355

R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuation of the current expansion but at a somewhat slower pace in employment through the forecast period will be in services and trade. We also expect considerable growth

356

R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuing but slowing expansion. (See Table 1.) In 1998, employment rose increased by 0.7% in 1998. It will slow a bit over the forecast period as foreign immigration declines. #12

357

R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2000 NEW JERSEY to more inflation and higher interest rates. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey looks for employment.6% a year over the forecast period. The services and trade sectors will provide 90% of the net increase

358

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast, the uncertainty of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity data due to the chaotic dynamics of the atmosphere is the salient reason for errors

Ross, Shane

359

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations

Kim, Kiho

360

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT OF USING FORECASTS Mohamed Zied Ch^atenay-Malabry Cedex, France Abstract: In this paper, we analyze forecast based inventory control policies for a non-stationary demand. We assume that forecasts and the associated uncertainties are given

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting Jingtao YAO Chew Lim@comp.nus.edu.sg Abstract Goodness­of­fit is the most popular criterion for neural network time series forecasting. In the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit

Yao, JingTao

362

A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting JingTao YAO Dept of Information on goodness-of-fit which is also the most popular criterion forecasting. How ever, in the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit their target. In order

Yao, JingTao

363

A new class of hybrid models for time series forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Applying quantitative models for forecasting and assisting investment decision making has become more indispensable in business practices than ever before. Improving forecasting especially time series forecasting accuracy is an important yet often difficult ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks (ANNs), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Hybrid models, Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs), Time series forecasting

Mehdi Khashei; Mehdi Bijari

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

Update On The Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast & Modeling Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Base Case includes § Medium Demand Forecast § Medium Natural Gas Price Forecast § Federal CO2 Rathdrum Power LLC-ID 4) CO2 Emissions - 2009 Selected Natural Gas Plants Plant level, emission percentage § Significantly lower electricity prices than 6th Plan Forecast, due to lower demand, lower gas prices, deferred

365

RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

or over predicting electricity demand due to poor weather forecasts is several hundred million dollars outages that many in the area experienced. Deep Thunder can also improve generation-side load forecasting by providing high-resolution weather forecast data for use in electricity demand forecast models. Integrating

Manry, Michael

366

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

New results in forecasting of photovoltaic systems output based on solar radiation forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate short term forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) systems output has a great significance for fast development of PV parks in South-East Europe

Laurentiu Fara

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) ABSTRACT This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the SolarAnywhere platform. The models include satellite derived cloud motion based forecasts for the short to medium horizon (1 5 hours) and forecasts derived from NOAA

Perez, Richard R.

369

How Do Forecasters Utilize Output From A Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecast System? Case Study Of A High-Impact Precipitation Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The proliferation of ensemble forecast system output in recent years motivates this investigation into how operational forecasters utilize convection-permitting ensemble forecast system guidance in the forecast preparation process. A sixteen-...

Clark Evans; Donald F. Van Dyke; Todd Lericos

370

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

371

Artificial Skill and Validation in Meteorological Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a simulation study of multiple regression prediction models for meteorological forecasting are reported. The effects of sample size, amount, and severity of nonrepresentative data in the population, inclusion of noninformative ...

Paul W. Mielke Jr.; Kenneth J. Berry; Christopher W. Landsea; William M. Gray

1996-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

Skill of Multimodel ENSO Probability Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The cross-validated hindcast skills of various multimodel ensemble combination strategies are compared for probabilistic predictions of monthly SST anomalies in the ENSO-related Nińo-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Forecast data from ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

Assessing Forecast Skill through Cross Validation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explains the method of cross validation for assessing forecast skill of empirical prediction models. Cross validation provides a relatively accurate measure of an empirical procedure's ability to produce a useful prediction rule from a ...

J. B. Elsner; C. P. Schmertmann

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

375

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

376

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

377

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

378

Dynamical Properties of Model Output Statistics Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The dynamical properties of forecasts corrected using model output statistics (MOS) schemes are explored, with emphasis on the respective role of model and initial condition uncertainties. Analytical and numerical investigations of low-order ...

S. Vannitsem; C. Nicolis

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

Scientific Verification of Deterministic River Stage Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One element of a complete verification system is the ability to determine why forecasts behave as they do. This paper describes and demonstrates an operationally feasible method for conducting this type of diagnostic verification analysis. ...

Edwin Welles; Soroosh Sorooshian

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

River flow forecasting with constructive neural network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In utilities using a mixture of hydroelectric and non-hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend upon the reservoir height and the inflow into the reservoir for several months into the future. Accurate forecasts of reservoir ...

Męuser Valença; Teresa Ludermir; Anelle Valença

2005-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Forecast verification: Its Complexity and Dimensionality  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Two fundamental characteristics of forecast verification problems—complexity and dimensionality—are described. To develop quantitative definitions of these characteristics, a general framework for the problem of absolute verification (AV) is ...

Allan H. Murphy

1991-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

Consensus Forecasts of Modeled Wave Parameters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The use of numerical guidance has become integral to the process of modern weather forecasting. Using various techniques, postprocessing of numerical model output has been shown to mitigate some of the deficiencies of these models, producing more ...

Tom H. Durrant; Frank Woodcock; Diana J. M. Greenslade

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

Spread Calibration of Ensemble MOS Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble forecasting systems often contain systematic biases and spread deficiencies that can be corrected by statistical postprocessing. This study presents an improvement to an ensemble statistical postprocessing technique, called ensemble ...

Bruce A. Veenhuis

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Snowfall Limit Forecasts and Hydrological Modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Hydrological flood forecasting in mountainous areas requires accurate partitioning between rain and snowfall to properly estimate the extent of runoff contributing areas. Here a method to make use of snowfall limit information—a standard output of ...

Cara Tobin; Andrea Rinaldo; Bettina Schaefli

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Ensemble Forecast of a Typhoon Flood Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A high-resolution nested regional spectral model and an ensemble prediction system are combined to forecast the track, intensity, and flooding precipitation arising from Typhoon Winnie of August 1997, which eventually reached supertyphoon status. ...

Brian P. Mackey; T. N. Krishnamurti

2001-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a recently developed hurricane ...

Kerry Emanuel; Fabian Fondriest; James Kossin

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Airborne Volcanic Ash Forecast Area Reliability  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In support of aircraft flight safety operations, daily comparisons between modeled, hypothetical, volcanic ash plumes calculated with meteorological forecasts and analyses were made over a 1.5-yr period. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian ...

Barbara J. B. Stunder; Jerome L. Heffter; Roland R. Draxler

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

The ENIAC Forecasts: A Re-creation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The numerical forecasts made in 1950 using the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC) paved the way for the remarkable advances that have been made over the past half-century in weather prediction and climate modeling. We review the ...

Peter Lynch

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) numerical seasonal forecast system is described in detail. The new system is aimed at a next-generation numerical seasonal prediction in which focus is placed on land processes, initial ...

Masao Kanamitsu; Arun Kumar; Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Jae-Kyung Schemm; Wanqui Wang; Fanglin Yang; Song-You Hong; Peitao Peng; Wilber Chen; Shrinivas Moorthi; Ming Ji

2002-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

Computer Generation of Marine Weather Forecast Text  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

MARWORDS is a natural language text generation system which has been developed to synthesize marine forecasts for the Davis Strait area in Northern Canada. It uses standard manually produced predictions of wind speed, air temperature, and other ...

E. Goldberg; R. Kittredge; A. Polgučre

1988-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

Forecast U.S. Distillate Stocks  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

EIA is not projecting a large recovery over the summer, but because refineries are forecast to run at high utilization rates, they may produce more distillate than expected and...

392

EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be lower this summer than previously thought. The price for regular gasoline this summer is now...

393

Visualizing Multiple Measures of Forecast Quality  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method for visually representing multiple measures of dichotomous (yes–no) forecast quality (probability of detection, false alarm ratio, bias, and critical success index) in a single diagram is presented. Illustration of the method is provided ...

Paul J. Roebber

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Using Climate Forecasts for Drought Management  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Drought hazards, and the ability to mitigate them with advance warning, offer potentially valuable applications of climate forecast products. Yet the value is often untapped, owing to the gap between climate science and societal decisions. This ...

Anne C. Steinemann

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Assessing the Usefulness of Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The errors in both the initialization and simulated evolution of weather and climate models create significant uncertainties in forecasts at lead times beyond a few days. Modern prediction systems sample the sources of these uncertainties to ...

Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

An Objective Basis for Forecasting Tornado Intensity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Although violent tornadoes comprise only 2.3% of tornado occurrences in the United States, they cause 68% of the fatalities attributed to tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Despite these statistics, no attempt is made to forecast or warn of ...

J. R. Colquhoun; D. J. Shepherd

1989-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

397

Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

When evaluating differences between competing precipitation forecasts, formal hypothesis testing is rarely performed. This may be due to the difficulty in applying common tests given the spatial correlation of and non-normality of errors. ...

Thomas M. Hamill

1999-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

MM5 Contrail Forecasting in Alaska  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is being used for forecasting the atmospheric layers of aircraft condensation trail (contrail) formation. Contrail ...

Martin Stuefer; Xiande Meng; Gerd Wendler

2005-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...

A. James Wagner

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Forecasting Resource Supply from Scarcity Rent Data  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasting Resource Supply from Scarcity Rent Data Speaker(s): Larry Dale Date: December 18, 2000 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar HostPoint of Contact: Diana Morris This talk...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P. [Dept. of Civil Eng., NIT, Silchar (India)

2010-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

402

Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...

Edward C. Johnston

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

403

Optimization of Value of Aerodrome Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Prediction of short-term variations of vital boundary layer conditions at airports, such as visibility and cloud base, is important to the safe and economic operation of airlines. Results of an experiment involving groups of forecasters at three ...

Ross Keith

2003-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

404

Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting: A Historical Perspective  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Techniques that have evolved during the hundred years that scientific severe thunderstorm forecasts have been prepared are reviewed. The early empirical rules developed by Finley, Showalter and Fulks, Fawbush, Miller and Starrett, and others have ...

Joseph T. Schaefer

1986-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

405

Ceiling and Visibility Forecasts via Neural Networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Statistical postprocessing of numerical model output can improve forecast quality, especially when model output is combined with surface observations. In this article, the development of nonlinear postprocessors for the prediction of ceiling and ...

Caren Marzban; Stephen Leyton; Brad Colman

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system operation in terms of the efficiency of the system. The goal of this dissertation is to develop advanced statistical wind speed predictive models to reduce the uncertainties in wind, especially the short-term future wind speed. Moreover, a criterion is proposed to evaluate the performance of models. Cost reduction in power system operation, as proposed, is more realistic than prevalent criteria, such as, root mean square error (RMSE) and absolute mean error (MAE). Two advanced space-time statistical models are introduced for short-term wind speed forecasting. One is a modified regime-switching, space-time wind speed fore- casting model, which allows the forecast regimes to vary according to the dominant wind direction and seasons. Thus, it avoids a subjective choice of regimes. The other one is a novel model that incorporates a new variable, geostrophic wind, which has strong influence on the surface wind, into one of the advanced space-time statistical forecasting models. This model is motivated by the lack of improvement in forecast accuracy when using air pressure and temperature directly. Using geostrophic wind in the model is not only critical, it also has a meaningful geophysical interpretation. The importance of model evaluation is emphasized in the dissertation as well. Rather than using RMSE or MAE, the performance of both wind forecasting models mentioned above are assessed by economic benefits with real wind farm data from Pacific Northwest of the U.S and West Texas. Wind forecasts are incorporated into power system economic dispatch models, and the power system operation cost is used as a loss measure for the performance of the forecasting models. From another perspective, the new criterion leads to cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation with potential economic benefits arising from the system-wide generation of cost savings and ancillary services cost savings. As an illustration, the integrated forecasts and economic dispatch framework are applied to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) equivalent 24- bus system. Compared with persistence and autoregressive models, the first model suggests that cost savings from integration of wind power could be on the scale of tens of millions of dollars. For the second model, numerical simulations suggest that the overall generation cost can be reduced by up to 6.6% using look-ahead dispatch coupled with spatio-temporal wind forecast as compared with dispatch with persistent wind forecast model.

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2004  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes the status of wind energy forecasting technology for predicting wind speed and energy generation of wind energy facilities short-term (minutes to hours), intermediate-term (hours to days), and long-term (months to years) average wind speed and energy generation. The information should be useful to companies that are evaluating or planning to incorporate wind energy forecasting into their operations.

2005-04-26T23:59:59.000Z

408

Forecasting the demand for commercial telecommunications satellites  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper summarizes the key elements of a forecast methodology for predicting demand for commercial satellite services and the resulting demand for satellite hardware and launches. The paper discusses the characterization of satellite services into more than a dozen applications (including emerging satellite Internet applications) used by Futron Corporation in its forecasts. The paper discusses the relationship between demand for satellite services and demand for satellite hardware

Carissa Bryce Christensen; Carie A. Mullins; Linda A. Williams

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.  

SciTech Connect

This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

Brainard, James Robert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

Automotive materials usage trends  

SciTech Connect

The materials composition of US passenger cars is traced from 1960 and projected into 1990's. Sales-weighted average vehicle-weight trends are analyzed in terms of shifts in the large/small car mix, downsizing, and downweighting. The growth in the usage of lightweight materials: -high strength steels, cast/wrought aluminum, plastics and composites - are examined in detail. Usage trends in a host of other materials such as alloy steels, zinc, lead, copper, etc. are also discussed. An approximate quantitative analysis of changes in the usage of steel by the automotive industry worldwide show that about 10% of total decline in Western-World steel consumption is accounted for by the automotive industry. An assessment is presented for automotive industry use of critical materials such as chromium in alloy steels/cast irons and the platinum group metals in exhaust-gas catalysts. 10 references, 13 figures, 9 tables.

Gjostein, N.A.

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Market Trends -  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Market Trends - Market Drivers Market Trends - Market Drivers Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 Strong Economic Growth Is Expected To Continue Through 2030 Figure 24. Average annual growth rates of real GDP, labor frce, and productivity in three cases, 2004-2030 (percent per year). Having problems, call our National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 for help. Figure data AEO2006 presents three views of economic growth for the forecast period from 2004 through 2030. Although probabilities are not assigned, the reference case reflects the most likely view of how the economy will unfold over the period. In the reference case, the NationÂ’s economic growth, measured in terms of real GDP based on 2000 chain-weighted dollars, is projected to average 3.0 percent per year (Figure 24). The labor force is

412

Understanding Trends inUnderstanding Trends in Wind Turbine Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

(worldwide) Polynomial trend line e(2010$/kW 400 600 800 1,000 TurbinePric Recent wind turbine price quotes 0Understanding Trends inUnderstanding Trends in Wind Turbine Prices OOver the Past Decade Mark Division · Energy Analysis Department Efficiency and Renewable Energy (Wind & Water Power Program) under

413

The Role of Long-Term Trends in Seasonal Predictions: Implication of Global Warming in the NCEP CFS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper analyzes long-term surface air temperature trends in a 25-yr (1982–2006) dataset of retrospective seasonal climate predictions made by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), a model that has its atmospheric greenhouse gases fixed at ...

Ming Cai; Chul-Su Shin; H. M. van den Dool; Wanqiu Wang; S. Saha; A. Kumar

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

A Study of Regional Precipitation Trends in Iceland Using a High-Quality Gauge Network and ERA-40  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The climatic variability and trends of precipitation in Iceland are examined for the period 1961–2000 using bias-corrected rain gauge data and precipitation forecasts from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Several quantities are studied: the ...

Philippe Crochet

2007-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

Controlling inventory by improving demand forecasting within the alcoholic beverage industry : a case study.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This thesis explores how combing statistical demand forecasting methods and causal forecasting methods with judgmental forecasts via a Sales and Operation Planning process can improve… (more)

Deng, Xiaomu

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast Energy Demand................................................................................................................................. 1 Demand Forecast Methodology.................................................................................................. 3 New Demand Forecasting Model for the Sixth Plan

417

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast Summary............................................................................................................ 2 Sixth Power Plan Demand Forecast................................................................................................ 4 Demand Forecast Range

418

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

419

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast.................................................................................. 19 Forecasting Commercial Floor Space Requirements

420

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents for the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticdevelop a state-of-the- art forecasting tool to predict suchto be used solely for forecasting. Whether these perceptions

Berk, Richard; He, Yan; Sorenson, Susan B.

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Hydrologic scales, cloud variability, remote sensing, and models: Implications for forecasting snowmelt and streamflow  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

econ. WEATHER AND FORECASTING Environmental decisions (1993seasonal, and WEATHER AND FORECASTING V OLUME 19 spatialfor details. WEATHER AND FORECASTING V OLUME 19 T ABLE 2.

Simpson, James J; Dettinger, M D; Gehrke, F; McIntire, T J; Hufford, G L

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents for the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticdevelop a state-of-the- art forecasting tool to predict suchto be used solely for forecasting. Whether these perceptions

Richard Berk; Yan He; Susan B. Sorenson

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

423

Reliable before-fabrication forecasting of expected surface slope distributions for x-ray optics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Reliable before-fabrication forecasting of expected surfacefor highly reliable forecasting of the expected surfaceaccuracy of this type of forecasting by comparing the power

Yashchuk, Yekaterina V.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

424

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents for the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible

Berk, Richard; Sorenson, Susan B.; He, Yan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

425

Calibration of a distributed flood forecasting model with input uncertainty using a Bayesian framework  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble modelSutcliffe (1970), River flow forecasting through conceptuala Distributed Flood Forecasting Model with Input Uncertainty

Li, M.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

Implementing Innovation in Planning Practice: The Case of Travel Demand Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project. Institute ofTRB. Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice andPurvis. Regional Travel Forecasting Model System for the San

Newmark, Gregory Louis

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

Mid-range energy-forecasting system: structure, forecasts, and critique  

SciTech Connect

The Mid-Range Energy Forecasting System (MEFS) is a large-scale, interdisciplinary model of the US energy system maintained by the US Department of Energy. MEFS provides long-run regional forecasts of delivered prices for electricity, coal, gasoline, residual, distillate, and natural gas. A number of sets of MEFS forecasts are usually issued, each set corresponding to a different scenario. Because it forecasts prices and since these forecasts are regularly disseminated, MEFS is of considerable practical interest. A critical guide of the model's output for potential users is provided in this paper. The model's logic is described, the latest forecasts from MEFS are presented, and the reasonableness of both the forecasts and the methodology are critically evaluated. The manner in which MEFS interfaces with the Oil Market Simulation Model, which forecasts crude oil price, is also discussed. The evaluation concludes that while there are serious problems with MEFS, selective use can prove very helpful. 17 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.

DeSouza, G.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

428

Forecasting Solar Radiation -- Preliminary Evaluation of an Approach Based upon the National Forecast Database  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Our objective is to develop, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions from the National Digital Forecast Database as an input. This report describes the model and presents a limited evaluation of its performance against ground-measured and satellite-derived irradiances in Albany, New York.

Perez, R.; Moore, K.; Wilcox, S.; Renne, D.; Zelenka, A.

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

429

Maintaining the Role of Humans in the Forecast Process: Analyzing the Psyche of Expert Forecasters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process occurred on 2–3 August 2005 at the American Meteorological Society's Weather Analysis and Forecasting Conference in Washington, D.C. The forum consisted of three sessions. ...

Neil A. Stuart; David M. Schultz; Gary Klein

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

SOLERAS - Solar-Powered Water Desalination Project at Yanbu: Forecasting models for operating and maintenance cost of the pilot plant  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study was conducted in cooperation with the Department of Industrial Engineering of King Abdulaziz University. The main objective of this study is to meet some of the goals of the Solar Energy Water Desalination Plant (SEWDP) plan in the area of economic evaluation. The first part of this project focused on describing the existing trend in the operation and maintenance (OandM) cost for the SOLERAS Solar Energy Water Desalination Plant in Yanbu. The second part used the information obtained on existing trends to find suitable forecasting models. These models, which are found here, are sensitive to changes in costs trends. Nevertheless, the study presented here has established the foundation for (OandM) costs estimating in the plant. The methodologies used in this study should continue as more data on operation and maintenance costs become available, because, in the long run, the trend in costs will help determine where cost effectiveness might be improved. 7 refs., 24 figs., 15 tabs.

Al-Idrisi, M.; Hamad, G.

1987-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Retrospective Evaluation of Appliance Price Trends  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

analyses to generate price trends more accurately. 8.Evaluation of Appliance Price Trends Larry Dale, Camillewith regard to overall price trends and relative price of

Dale, Larry

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

432

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

433

Trends of petroleum fuels  

SciTech Connect

Trends in properties of motor gasolines for the years 1942 through 1984; diesel fuels for the years 1950 through 1983; aviation fuels for the years 1947 through 1983; and heating oils for the years 1955 through 1984, have been evaluated based upon data contained in surveys prepared and published by the National Institute for Petroleum and Energy Research (NIPER) formerly the Bartlesville Energy Technology Center (BETC). The surveys for motor gasolines were conducted under a cooperative agreement with the Coordinating Research Council (CRC) and the Bureau of Mines from 1935 through 1948 and in cooperation with the American Petroleum Institute (API) since 1948 for all surveys. The motor gasoline surveys have been published twice annually since 1935 describing the properties of motor gasolines throughout the country. Other surveys prepared in cooperation with API and the Bureau of Mines, the Energy Research and Development Administration, the Department of Energy, and currently NIPER were aviation gasolines beginning in 1947, diesel fuels in 1950, aviation turbine fuels in 1951, and heating oils, formerly burner fuel oils, in 1955. Various companies throughout the country obtain samples of motor gasolines from retail outlets and refinery samples for the other surveys, and analyze the samples using American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) procedures. The analytical data are sent to the Bartlesville Center for survey preparation and distribution. A summary report has been assembled from data in 83 semiannual surveys for motor gasolines that shows trends throughout the entire era from winter 19

Shelton, E.M.; Woodward, P.W.

1985-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the U.S. Public  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, and meteorologists have information about weather forecast uncertainty that is not readily available to most forecast users. Yet effectively communicating forecast uncertainty to nonmeteorologists ...

Rebecca E. Morss; Julie L. Demuth; Jeffrey K. Lazo

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

forecasts (or any other forecast, for that matter) in makingcase natural gas price forecast, but to also examine a wideAEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

436

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices:forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Appendix ATable 1. Forecast Year AEO Predicted Price from 1996-2003

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

437

12-32021E2_Forecast  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

FORECAST OF VACANCIES FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2014 (Issue No. 20) Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff at the P4-P5 levels: * Advanced university degree (or equivalent postgraduate degree); * 7 or 10 years, respectively, of experience in a field of relevance to the post; * Resource management experience; * Strong analytical skills; * Computer skills: standard Microsoft Office software; * Languages: Fluency in English. Working knowledge of other official languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish) advantageous; * Ability to work effectively in multidisciplinary and multicultural teams; * Ability to communicate effectively. Professional staff at the P1-P3 levels:

438

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro?Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed

Nazrin Ullah; P. Choudhury

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.

440

The Canadian Regional Data Assimilation and Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the recent changes to the regional data assimilation and forecasting system at the Canadian Meteorological Center. A major aspect is the replacement of the currently operational global variable resolution forecasting approach ...

Luc Fillion; Monique Tanguay; Ervig Lapalme; Bertrand Denis; Michel Desgagne; Vivian Lee; Nils Ek; Zhuo Liu; Manon Lajoie; Jean-François Caron; Christian Pagé

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Architect Of Severe Storm Forecasting: Colonel Robert C. Miller  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The career of severe storm forecaster and teacher Colonel Robert Miller (1920–98) is historicallyreviewed and evaluated. His pathway to the position of recognized authority in severe storm forecasting is examined in light of his early education ...

John M. Lewis; Robert A. Maddox; Charlie A. Crisp

2006-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Forecasting the 12–14 March 1993 Superstorm  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the decision-making process used by the forecasters in the National Meteorological Center's Meteorological Operations Division and in Weather Forecast Offices of the National Weather Service to provide the successful ...

Louis W. Uccellini; Paul J. Kocin; Russell S. Schneider; Paul M. Stokols; Russell A. Dorr

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

A Nested Spectral Model for Hurricane Track Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A numerical method for analysing and forecasting a wide range of horizontal scales of motion is tested in a barotropic hurricane track forecast model. The numerical method uses cubic B-spline representations of variables on nested domains. The ...

Mark Demaria; Sim D. Aberson; Katsuyuki V. Ooyama; Stephen J. Lord

1992-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

444

Does Distance from the Forecast Site Affect Skill?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An outstanding issue in the assessment of forecast skill (and value) is whether any advantage that can be obtained through regional knowledge not readily available to distant forecasters supersedes the leveling effect of information obtained by ...

Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart; Gregory S. Forbes

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

Extended-Range Probability Forecasts Based on Dynamical Model Output  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A probability forecast has advantages over a deterministic forecast as the former offers information about the probabilities of various possible future states of the atmosphere. As physics-based numerical models find their success in modern ...

Jianfu Pan; Huug van den Dool

1998-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

446

Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...

Datta, Shoumen

2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

447

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14

448

A Short-Range Objective Nocturnal Temperature Forecasting Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A relatively simple, objective, nocturnal temperature forecasting model suitable for freezing and near-freezing conditions has been designed so that a user, presumably a weather forecaster, can put in standard meteorological data at a particular ...

Robert A. Sutherland

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

The development of a statistical forecast model for Changma  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting year-to-year variation in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation is one of the most challenging tasks in climate prediction because predictors are not sufficiently well known and forecast skill by numerical models is poor. In ...

Seung-Eon Lee; Kyong-Hwan Seo

450

Early Warnings of Severe Weather from Ensemble Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A system has been developed to give probabilistic warnings of severe-weather events for the United Kingdom (UK) on a regional and national basis, based on forecast output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ...

T. P. Legg; K. R. Mylne

2004-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Toward an Integrated Seasonal Forecasting System for South America  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: (i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and ...

C. A. S. Coelho; D. B. Stephenson; M. Balmaseda; F. J. Doblas-Reyes; G. J. van Oldenborgh

2006-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Neighborhood Verification: A Strategy for Rewarding Close Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

High-resolution forecasts may be quite useful even when they do not match the observations exactly. Neighborhood verification is a strategy for evaluating the “closeness” of the forecast to the observations within space–time neighborhoods rather ...

Elizabeth E. Ebert

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

Some Remarks on the Reliability of Categorical Probability Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Studies on forecast evaluation often rely on estimating limiting observed frequencies conditioned on specific forecast probabilities (the reliability diagram or calibration function). Obviously, statistical estimates of the calibration function ...

Jochen Bröcker

2008-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

454

Experimental Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity at IRI  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) has been issuing experimental seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecasts for several ocean basins since early 2003. In this paper the method used to obtain these forecasts is ...

Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of wind vectors are becoming critical as interest grows in wind as a clean and renewable source of energy, in addition to a wide range of other uses, from aviation to recreational boating. Unlike other common forecasting ...

J. McLean Sloughter; Tilmann Gneiting; Adrian E. Raftery

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

The Contributions of Education and Experience to Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of nine semesters of temperature and precipitation forecasts at the State University of New York at Albany has been conducted with the goal of investigating the dependence of forecasting skill on education and experience. The results ...

Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart

1996-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

457

The Effect of Probabilistic Information on Threshold Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The study reported here asks whether the use of probabilistic information indicating forecast uncertainty improves the quality of deterministic weather decisions. Participants made realistic wind speed forecasts based on historical information in ...

Susan Joslyn; Karla Pak; David Jones; John Pyles; Earl Hunt

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

A Probability Model for Verifying Deterministic Forecasts of Extreme Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article proposes a method for verifying deterministic forecasts of rare, extreme events defined by exceedance above a high threshold. A probability model for the joint distribution of forecasts and observations, and based on extreme-value ...

Christopher A. T. Ferro

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water ...

Kevin Werner; Kristen Averyt; Gigi Owen

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

460

Statistical Extension of the National Hurricane Center 5-Day Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts for tropical cyclone tracks and wind speeds are extended in time to produce spatially disaggregated probability forecasts for landfall location and intensity, using a weighted bootstrap procedure. ...

Daniel S. Wilks; Charles J. Neumann; Miles B. Lawrence

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "business-as-usual trend forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Predictability and Information Theory. Part II: Imperfect Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a framework for quantifying predictability based on the behavior of imperfect forecasts. The critical quantity in this framework is not the forecast distribution, as used in many other predictability studies, but the ...

Timothy DelSole

2005-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

Impacts of the Midwestern Drought Forecasts of 2000  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In March of 2000 (and again in April and May) NOAA issued long-range forecasts indicating that an existing Midwestern drought would continue and intensify through the upcoming summer. These forecasts received extensive media coverage and wide ...

Stanley A. Changnon

2002-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Confidence Builders: Evaluating Seasonal Climate Forecasts from User Perspectives  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Water managers, cattle ranchers, and wildland fire managers face several barriers to effectively using climate forecasts. Repeatedly, these decision makers state that they lack any quantitative basis for evaluating forecast credibility. That is ...

Holly C. Hartmann; Thomas C. Pagano; S. Sorooshian; R. Bales

2002-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

464

Threshold Relative Humidity Duration Forecasts for Plant Disease Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Duration of high relative humidity periods is an important component of many plant disease development models. Performance of forecasts of this quantity, based on the model output statistics 3-h temperature and dewpoint forecasts produced by the ...

Daniel S. Wilks; Karin W. Shen

1991-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

Operations of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Severe Storms Forecast Center in Kansas City, Missouri, is composed of several operational forecasting units, all national in scope. It includes the Severe Local Storms Unit (SELS), the National Aviation Weather Advisory Unit (NAWAU),...

Frederick P. Ostby

1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

466

Making Forecasts Meaningful: Explanations of Problematic Predictions in Northeast Brazil  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study illustrates the need to consider the multiple interpretations and experiences that influence how climate forecasts are evaluated in local contexts when assessing how useful forecasts can be for increasing the resilience of rural ...

Karen Pennesi

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

Real-Time Data Assimilation for Operational Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Operational flood forecasting requires that accurate estimates of the uncertainty associated with model-generated streamflow forecasts be provided along with the probable flow levels. This paper demonstrates a stochastic ensemble implementation ...

Jasper A. Vrugt; Hoshin V. Gupta; BreanndánÓ Nualláin; Willem Bouten

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

468

A web-based Hong Kong tourism demand forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate predictions of future business activities are important for business decision-making. As a consequence, powerful and simple forecasting processes are urgently pursued by decision-makers. This study presents a tourism demand forecasting system ...

Haiyan Song; Zixuan Gao; Xinyan Zhang; Shanshan Lin

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

469

Comparative Forecast Evaluation: Graphical Gaussian Models and Sufficiency Relations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper deals with the comparative evaluation of categorical forecasts supposing that forecasts and observations are continuous variables and have a jointly normal distribution. An information content approach based on the well-established ...

Ulrich Callies

2000-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

Forecast-Error Statistics for Homogeneous and Inhomogeneous Observation Networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Objective analysis procedures such as statistical interpolation require reliable estimates of forecast-error statistics in order to optimize the analysis weights. Reasonably good estimates of the forecast-error statistics can be obtained from ...

Roger Daley

1992-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

471

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

A Neural Network Short-Term Forecast of Significant Thunderstorms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Case studies are the typical means by which meteorologists pass on their knowledge of how to solve a particular weather-forecasting problem to other forecasters. A case study helps others recognize an important pattern and enhances the ...

Donald W. McCann

1992-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

Short-Term Forecast Validation of Six Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The short-term forecast accuracy of six different forecast models over the western United States is described for January, February, and March 1996. Four of the models are operational products from the National Centers for Environmental ...

Bryan G. White; Jan Paegle; W. James Steenburgh; John D. Horel; Robert T. Swanson; Louis K. Cook; Daryl J. Onton; John G. Miles

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

Proper Scores for Probability Forecasts Can Never Be Equitable  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Verification is an important part of any forecasting system. It is usually achieved by computing the value of some measure or score that indicates how good the forecasts are. Many possible verification measures have been proposed, and to choose ...

Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

475

How Essential is Hydrologic Model Calibration to Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Hydrologic model calibration is usually a central element of streamflow forecasting based on the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) method. Evaluation measures of forecast errors such as root-mean-square error (RMSE) are heavily influenced by ...

Xiaogang Shi; Andrew W. Wood; Dennis P. Lettenmaier

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

Empirical Correction of the NCEP Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper examines the extent to which an empirical correction method can improve forecasts of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Global Forecast System. The empirical correction is based on adding a forcing ...

Xiaosong Yang; Timothy DelSole; Hua-Lu Pan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

J.P. Finley: The First Severe Storms Forecaster  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the 19th century, while others were debating about the theory and morphology of tornadoes, Finley set out to prove that tornadoes, like other weather phenomena, could be forecast. He developed forecast rules and made experimental ...

Joseph G. Galway

1985-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

On Peirce’s Motivation for Equitability in Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In 1884, Peirce proposed a new two-category score for deterministic forecasts. The score was motivated by the desire to estimate the number of correct forecasts based on sound reasoning, without being sensitive to the frequency distribution of any ...

Mark J. Rodwell

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

Factors Influencing Skill Improvements in the ECMWF Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the past 30 years the skill in ECMWF numerical forecasts has steadily improved. There are three major contributing factors: 1) improvements in the forecast model, 2) improvements in the data assimilation, and 3) the increased number of ...

Linus Magnusson; Erland Källén

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

Using Wind Anomalies to Forecast East Coast Winter Storms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting major winter storms is a critical function for all weather services. Conventional model-derived fields from numerical weather prediction models most frequently utilized by operational forecasters, such as pressure level geopotential ...

Neil A. Stuart; Richard H. Grumm

2006-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

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481

Downscaling Ensemble Weather Predictions for Improved Week-2 Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study investigates the use of large-scale ensemble weather predictions provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System [GFS; formerly known as Medium-Range Forecast (MRF)] for improving week-2 ...

Xiaoli Liu; Paulin Coulibaly

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

The Effectiveness of Weather Forecasts in Decision Making: An Example  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Decision models involving prescribed fire (the use of fire as a silvicultural tool) were used to analyze the utility of four types of weather information as forecasts: climatology, current weather observations (used as a persistence forecast), ...

R. William Furman

1982-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

The Science of NOAA's Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) is implementing a short- to long-range Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS). The HEFS addresses the need to quantify uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts for flood risk management, water supply management, ...

Julie Demargne; Limin Wu; Satish Regonda; James Brown; Haksu Lee; Minxue He; Dong-Jun Seo; Robert Hartman; Henry D. Herr; Mark Fresch; John Schaake; Yuejian Zhu

484

An Improved Operational System for Forecasting Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A Model Output Statistics system for forecasting the conditional probability of precipitation type (PoPT) became operational within the National Weather Service in September 1978. Forecasts are provided for three precipitation type categories: ...

Joseph R. Bocchieri; George J. Maglaras

1983-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

The Application of Signal Detection Theory to Weather Forecasting Behavior  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A variety of measures are used to judge the skill and accuracy with which forecasters predict the weather and to verify forecasts: Such measures can confound accuracy with decision strategy and sometimes give conflicting indications of ...

Lewis O. Harvey Jr.; Kenneth R. Hammond; Cynthia M. Lusk; Ernest F. Mross

1992-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

in this report. #12;i ABSTRACT These electricity demand forms and instructions ask load-serving entities and Instructions for Electricity Demand Forecasts. California Energy Commission, Electricity Supply Analysis.................................................................................................................................7 Form 1 Historic and Forecast Electricity Demand

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

487

Correcting Errors in Streamflow Forecast Ensemble Mean and Spread  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

When hydrological models are used for probabilistic streamflow forecasting in the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) framework, the deterministic components of the approach can lead to errors in the estimation of forecast uncertainty, as ...

Andrew W. Wood; John C. Schaake

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

488

Potential Economic Value of Ensemble-Based Surface Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The possible economic value of the quantification of uncertainty in future ensemble-based surface weather forecasts is investigated using a formal, idealized decision model. Current, or baseline, weather forecasts are represented by probabilistic ...

Daniel S. Wilks; Thomas M. Hamill

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

489

Bayesian Approach to Decision Making Using Ensemble Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The economic value of ensemble-based weather or climate forecasts is generally assessed by taking the ensembles at “face value.” That is, the forecast probability is estimated as the relative frequency of occurrence of an event among a limited ...

Richard W. Katz; Martin Ehrendorfer

2006-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

490

Comparative Evaluation of Weather Forecasting Systems: Sufficiency, Quality, and Accuracy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The concept of sufficiency, originally introduced in the context of the comparison of statistical experiments, has recently been shown to provide a coherent basis for comparative evaluation of forecasting systems. Specifically, forecasting system ...

Martin Ehrendorfer; Allan H. Murphy

1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

A Bayesian Approach to Predictor Selection for Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Statistical methods commonly used for forecasting climate and streamflows require the selection of appropriate predictors. Poorly designed predictor selection procedures can result in poor forecasts for independent events. This paper introduces a ...

David E. Robertson; Q. J. Wang

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

Interpretation of Rank Histograms for Verifying Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Rank histograms are a tool for evaluating ensemble forecasts. They are useful for determining the reliability of ensemble forecasts and for diagnosing errors in its mean and spread. Rank histograms are generated by repeatedly tallying the rank of ...

Thomas M. Hamill

2001-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

One-Month Forecast Experiments—without Anomaly Boundary Forcings  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A series of one-month forecasts were carried out for eight January cases, using a particular prediction model and prescribing climatological sea-surface temperature as the boundary condition. Each forecast is a stochastic prediction that consists ...

K. Miyakoda; J. Sirutis; J. Ploshay

1986-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Objective Limits on Forecasting Skill of Rare Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method for determining baselines of skill for the purpose of the verification of rare-event forecasts is described and examples are presented to illustrate the sensitivity to parameter choices. These “practically perfect” forecasts are designed ...

Nathan M. Hitchens; Harold E. Brooks; Michael P. Kay

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

Evaluation of Eta–RSM Ensemble Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The accuracy of short-range probabilistic forecasts of quantitative precipitation (PQPF) from the experimental Eta–Regional Spectral Model ensemble is compared with the accuracy of forecasts from the Nested Grid Model’s model output statistics (...

Thomas M. Hamill; Stephen J. Colucci

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

496

Verification of Eta–RSM Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Motivated by the success of ensemble forecasting at the medium range, the performance of a prototype short-range ensemble forecast system is examined. The ensemble dataset consists of 15 case days from September 1995 through January 1996. There ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Stephen J. Colucci

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Temporally distributed deterministic and stochastic excitation of the tangent linear forecast system governing forecast error growth and the tangent linear observer system governing assimilation error growth is examined. The method used is to ...

Brian F. Farrell; Petros J. Ioannou

2005-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

498

Use of the “Odds Ratio” for Diagnosing Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study investigates ways of quantifying the skill in forecasts of dichotomous weather events. The odds ratio, widely used in medical studies, can provide a powerful way of testing the association between categorical forecasts and ...

David B. Stephenson

2000-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

Emergency Response Transport Forecasting Using Historical Wind Field Pattern Matching  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Historical pattern matching, or analog forecasting, is used to generate short-term mesoscale transport forecasts for emergency response at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. A simple historical pattern-matching algorithm ...

Roger G. Carter; Robert E. Keislar

2000-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

500

Do Investors Forecast Fat Firms? Evidence from the Gold Mining Industry  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economists’ Gold Price Forecasts,” Australian Journal ofDo Investors Forecast Fat Firms? Evidence from the Gold

Borenstein, Severin; Farrell, Joseph

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z