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Sample records for bau scenario 3b

  1. Stage 3a: Developing BAU Scenario | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Stage 3a: Developing BAU Scenario Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities...

  2. Schoenborn wins Bau Neutron Award

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Schoenborn wins Bau Neutron Award Schoenborn wins Bau Neutron Award The American Crystallographic Association (ACA) has selected retired Laboratory Senior Fellow Benno Schoenborn to receive the 2016 Bau Neutron Diffraction Award. August 12, 2015 Benno Schoenborn Benno Schoenborn Communications Office (505) 667-7000 Schoenborn is honored for his pioneering research in macromolecular neutron crystallography and the design and development of the neutron crystallography beamline (Protein

  3. Schoenborn wins Bau Neutron Award

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of LANL's Bioenergy and Biome Sciences group, to receive the 2016 Bau Neutron Diffraction Award. The award recognizes exceptional research achievement in neutron...

  4. Carbon Geological Sequestration Systems Bau, Domenico 54 ENVIRONMENTAL

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Multi-Objective Optimization Approaches for the Design of Carbon Geological Sequestration Systems Bau, Domenico 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES The main objective of this project is to...

  5. P-3 B Aircraft

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NASA's P-3B Earth Science Aircraft P-3B Facts The NASA P-3B is a four-engine turboprop ... The aircraft supports scientific investigations by NASA and visiting scientists from ...

  6. Scenario Jedi

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This document summarizes an overview of the Scenario Solar PV Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model work.

  7. AP-3-B Wholesale Power Rate Schedule | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    3-B Wholesale Power Rate Schedule AP-3-B Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: American ... American Electric Power Service Corporation (hereinafter called the Company), PJM ...

  8. Stage 3b: Assessing Opportunities | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Stage 3b: Assessing Opportunities Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3b LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities...

  9. VA-3-B Wholesale Power Rate Schedule | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    3-B Wholesale Power Rate Schedule VA-3-B Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: Virginia Power System: Kerr-Philpott This rate schedule shall be available to public bodies and...

  10. RAMONA-3B application to Browns Ferry ATWS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Slovik, G.C.; Neymotin, L.Y.; Saha, P.

    1985-01-01

    The Anticipated Transient Without Scram (ATWS) is known to be a dominant accident sequence for possible core melt in a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR). A recent Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) analysis for the Browns Ferry nuclear power plant indicates that ATWS is the second most dominant transient for core melt in BWR/4 with Mark I containment. The most dominant sequence being the failure of long term decay heat removal function of the Residual Heat Removal (RHR) system. Of all the various ATWS scenarios, the Main Steam Isolation Valve (MSIV) closure ATWS sequence was chosen for present analysis because of its relatively high frequency of occurrence and its challenge to the residual heat removal system and containment integrity. The objective of this paper is to discuss four MSIV closure ATWS calculations using the RAMONA-3B code. The paper is a summary of a report being prepared for the USNRC Severe Accident Sequence Analysis (SASA) program which should be referred to for details. 10 refs., 20 figs., 3 tabs.

  11. Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

    2012-12-01

    Low carbon energy technologies are gaining increasing importance in India for reducing emissions as well as diversifying its energy supply mix. The present paper presents and analyses a targeted approach for pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies in the Indian energy market. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements and expert opinion. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario it is found that in the long run all solar, wind and nuclear will achieve their targets without any subsidy push. In the short run however, nuclear and solar energy require significant subsidy push. Nuclear energy requires a much higher subsidy allocation as compared to solar because the targets assumed are also higher for nuclear energy. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies significantly. Still subsidy is required especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. It is also found that pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies might lead to decrease in share of CCS under the price scenario and biomass under both BAU and price scenario, which implies that one set of low carbon technologies is substituted by other set of low carbon technologies. Thus the objective of emission mitigation might not be achieved due to this substitution. Moreover sensitivity on nuclear energy cost was done to represent risk mitigation for this technology and it was found that higher cost can significantly decrease the share of this technology under both the BAU and carbon price scenario.

  12. Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The petroleum-based transportation fuel system is complex and highly developed, in contrast to the nascent low-petroleum, low-carbon alternative fuel system. This report examines how expansion of the low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure could contribute to deep reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the U.S. transportation sector. Three low-carbon scenarios, each using a different combination of low-carbon fuels, were developed to explore infrastructure expansion trends consistent with a study goal of reducing transportation sector GHG emissions to 80% less than 2005 levels by 2050.These scenarios were compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and were evaluated with respect to four criteria: fuel cost estimates, resource availability, fuel production capacity expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion.

  13. Attachment 3 b. Part A Page 1 of 6

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Attachment 3 b. Part A Page 1 of 6 Section A - General Terms and Conditions ................................................................................................ 2 A.1. Purpose .................................................................................................................................................. 2 A.2. Authority ............................................................................................................................................... 2

  14. Crystal structure of inactive form of Rab3B

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Wei; Shen, Yang; Jiao, Ronghong; Liu, Yanli; Deng, Lingfu; Qi, Chao

    2012-02-24

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This is the first structural information of human Rab3B. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer To provides a structural basis for the GDP/GTP switch in controlling the activity of Rab3. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The charge distribution of Rab3B indicates its unique roles in vesicular trafficking. -- Abstract: Rab proteins are the largest family of ras-related GTPases in eukaryotic cells. They act as directional molecular switches at membrane trafficking, including vesicle budding, cargo sorting, transport, tethering, and fusion. Here, we generated and crystallized the Rab3B:GDP complex. The structure of the complex was solved to 1.9 A resolution and the structural base comparison with other Rab3 members provides a structural basis for the GDP/GTP switch in controlling the activity of small GTPase. The comparison of charge distribution among the members of Rab3 also indicates their different roles in vesicular trafficking.

  15. RAMONA-3B application to Browns Ferry ATWS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Slovik, G.C.; Neymotin, L.; Cazzoli, E.; Saha, P.

    1984-01-01

    This paper discusses two preliminary MSIV clsoure ATWS calculations done using the RAMONA-3B code and the work being done to create the necessary cross section sets for the Browns Ferry Unit 1 reactor. The RAMONA-3B code employs a three-dimensional neutron kinetics model coupled with one-dimensional, four equation, nonhomogeneous, nonequilibrium thermal hydraulics. To be compatible with 3-D neutron kinetics, the code uses parallel coolant channels in the core. It also includes a boron transport model and all necessary BWR components such as jet pump, recirculation pump, steam separator, steamline with safety and relief valves, main steam isolation valve, turbine stop valve, and turbine bypass valve. A summary of RAMONA-3B neutron kinetics and thermal hydraulics models is presented in the Appendix.

  16. Identification of the heparin binding site on adeno-associated virus serotype 3B (AAV-3B)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lerch, Thomas F.; Chapman, Michael S.

    2012-02-05

    Adeno-associated virus is a promising vector for gene therapy. In the current study, the binding site on AAV serotype 3B for the heparan sulfate proteoglycan (HSPG) receptor has been characterized. X-ray diffraction identified a disaccharide binding site at the most positively charged region on the virus surface. The contributions of basic amino acids at this and other sites were characterized using site-directed mutagenesis. Both heparin and cell binding are correlated to positive charge at the disaccharide binding site, and transduction is significantly decreased in AAV-3B vectors mutated at this site to reduce heparin binding. While the receptor attachment sites of AAV-3B and AAV-2 are both in the general vicinity of the viral spikes, the exact amino acids that participate in electrostatic interactions are distinct. Diversity in the mechanisms of cell attachment by AAV serotypes will be an important consideration for the rational design of improved gene therapy vectors.

  17. Identification of the heparin binding site on adeno-associated virus serotype 3B (AAV-3B)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lerch, Thomas F.; Chapman, Michael S.

    2012-05-24

    Adeno-associated virus is a promising vector for gene therapy. In the current study, the binding site on AAV serotype 3B for the heparan sulfate proteoglycan (HSPG) receptor has been characterized. X-ray diffraction identified a disaccharide binding site at the most positively charged region on the virus surface. The contributions of basic amino acids at this and other sites were characterized using site-directed mutagenesis. Both heparin and cell binding are correlated to positive charge at the disaccharide binding site, and transduction is significantly decreased in AAV-3B vectors mutated at this site to reduce heparin binding. While the receptor attachment sites of AAV-3B and AAV-2 are both in the general vicinity of the viral spikes, the exact amino acids that participate in electrostatic interactions are distinct. Diversity in the mechanisms of cell attachment by AAV serotypes will be an important consideration for the rational design of improved gene therapy vectors.

  18. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    S. 09 BIOMASS FUELS; 59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY BIOMASS; BIOFUEL; BSM; SYSTEM DYNAMICS; BIOFUEL INCENTIVES; SCENARIOS; Bioenergy;...

  19. Scenarios of Global Municipal Water-Use Demand Projections over the 21st Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Davies, Evan; Eom, Jiyong

    2013-03-06

    This paper establishes three future projections of global municipal water use to the end of the 21st century: A reference business-as usual (BAU) scenario, a High Technological Improvement (High Tech) scenario and a Low Technological Improvement (Low Tech) scenario. A global municipal water demand model is constructed using global water use statistics at the country-scale, calibrated to the base year of 2005, and simulated to the end of the 21st century. Since the constructed water demand model hinges on socioeconomic variables (population, income), water price, and end-use technology and efficiency improvement rates, projections of those input variables are adopted to characterize the uncertainty in future water demand estimates. The water demand model is linked to the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a global change integrated assessment model. Under the reference scenario, the global total water withdrawal increases from 466 km3/year in 2005 to 941 km3/year in 2100,while withdrawals in the high and low tech scenarios are 321 km3/ year and 2000 km3/ year, respectively. This wide range (321-2000 km3/ year) indicates the level of uncertainty associated with such projections. The simulated global municipal demand projections are most sensitive to population and income projections, then to end-use technology and efficiency projections, and finally to water price. Thus, using water price alone as a policy measure to reduce municipal water use may substantiate the share of municipal water price of peoples annual incomes.

  20. How Can China Lighten Up? Urbanization, Industrialization and Energy Demand Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aden, Nathaniel T.; Zheng, Nina; Fridley, David G.

    2009-07-01

    Urbanization has re-shaped China's economy, society, and energy system. Between 1990 and 2007 China added 290 million new urban residents, bringing the total urbanization rate to 45%. This population adjustment spurred energy demand for construction of new buildings and infrastructure, as well as additional residential use as rural biomass was replaced with urban commercial energy services. Primary energy demand grew at an average annual rate of 10% between 2000 and 2007. Urbanization's effect on energy demand was compounded by the boom in domestic infrastructure investment, and in the export trade following World Trade Organization (WTO) accession in 2001. Industry energy consumption was most directly affected by this acceleration. Whereas industry comprised 32% of 2007 U.S. energy use, it accounted for 75% of China's 2007 energy consumption. Five sub-sectors accounted for 78% of China's industry energy use in 2007: iron and steel, energy extraction and processing, chemicals, cement, and non-ferrous metals. Ferrous metals alone accounted for 25% of industry and 18% of total primary energy use. The rapid growth of heavy industry has led China to become by far the world's largest producer of steel, cement, aluminum, and other energy-intensive commodities. However, the energy efficiency of heavy industrial production continues to lag world best practice levels. This study uses scenario analysis to quantify the impact of urbanization and trade on industrial and residential energy consumption from 2000 to 2025. The BAU scenario assumed 67% urbanization, frozen export amounts of heavy industrial products, and achievement of world best practices by 2025. The China Lightens Up (CLU) scenario assumed 55% urbanization, zero net exports of heavy industrial products, and more aggressive efficiency improvements by 2025. The five dominant industry sub-sectors were modeled in both scenarios using a LEAP energy end-use accounting model. The results of this study show that a CLU-style development path would avoid 430 million tonnes coal-equivalent energy use by 2025. More than 60% of these energy savings would come from reduced activity and production levels. In carbon terms, this would amount to more than a billion-tonne reduction of energy-related carbon emissions compared with the BAU scenario in 2025, though the absolute level of emissions rises in both scenarios. Aside from the energy and carbon savings related to CLU scenario development, this study showed impending saturation effects in commercial construction, urban appliance ownership, and fertilizer application. The implication of these findings is that urbanization will have a direct impact on future energy use and emissions - policies to guide urban growth can play a central role in China's efforts to mitigate emissions growth.

  1. APOSTLE: 11 TRANSIT OBSERVATIONS OF TrES-3b

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kundurthy, P.; Becker, A. C.; Agol, E.; Barnes, R.; Williams, B.

    2013-02-10

    The Apache Point Survey of Transit Lightcurves of Exoplanets (APOSTLE) observed 11 transits of TrES-3b over two years in order to constrain system parameters and look for transit timing and depth variations. We describe an updated analysis protocol for APOSTLE data, including the reduction pipeline, transit model, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyzer. Our estimates of the system parameters for TrES-3b are consistent with previous estimates to within the 2{sigma} confidence level. We improved the errors (by 10%-30%) on system parameters such as the orbital inclination (i {sub orb}), impact parameter (b), and stellar density ({rho}{sub *}) compared to previous measurements. The near-grazing nature of the system, and incomplete sampling of some transits, limited our ability to place reliable uncertainties on individual transit depths and hence we do not report strong evidence for variability. Our analysis of the transit timing data shows no evidence for transit timing variations and our timing measurements are able to rule out super-Earth and gas giant companions in low-order mean motion resonance with TrES-3b.

  2. RAMONA-3B calculations for Browns Ferry ATWS (Anticipated Transient Without Scram) study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Saha, P; Slovik, G C; Neymotin, L Y

    1987-02-01

    Several aspects of the Anticipated Transient Without Scram (ATWS) initiated by an inadvertent closure of all Main Steam Isolation Valves (MSIV) in a typical BWR/4 are analyzed in the report. The analysis is performed using the Brookhaven National Laboratory code, RAMONA-3B, which employs a three-dimensional neutron kinetics model coupled with a parallel-channel thermal hydraulics in representing a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) Core. Four different transient scenarios have been investigated: (a) downcomer water level and reactor pressure control, (b) manual control rod insertion transient, (c) high pressure boil-off, and (d) recirculation pump trip failure. Results of these calculations should provide better understanding of mitigative effects of operator actions during ATWS, thus helping in the development of adequate Emergency Procedure Guidelines (EPG) required for the BWR plant safety. A few unresolved questions subject to future investigations are also discussed.

  3. Crystal structure of inactive form of Rab3B

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Wei; Shen, Yang; Jiao, Ronghong; Liu, Yanli; Deng, Lingfu; Qi, Chao

    2012-06-28

    Rab proteins are the largest family of ras-related GTPases in eukaryotic cells. They act as directional molecular switches at membrane trafficking, including vesicle budding, cargo sorting, transport, tethering, and fusion. Here, we generated and crystallized the Rab3B:GDP complex. The structure of the complex was solved to 1.9 {angstrom} resolution and the structural base comparison with other Rab3 members provides a structural basis for the GDP/GTP switch in controlling the activity of small GTPase. The comparison of charge distribution among the members of Rab3 also indicates their different roles in vesicular trafficking.

  4. Calculation of a BWR partial ATWS using RAMONA-3B

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garber, D.I.; Diamond, D.J.; Cheng, H.S.

    1982-01-01

    The RAMONA-3B code has been used to simulate a boiling water reactor (BWR) transient initiated by the closure of the main steam line isolation valves in which all the control rods in one-half the core fail to scram after reactor trip. The modeling of the nuclear steam supply system included three-dimensional neutron kinetics and parallel hydraulic channels (including a bypass channel). The transient is characterized by an initial pressure spike and then by oscillations in the pressure due to the opening and closing of relief valves. These oscillations in turn affect all thermohydraulic properties in the vessel. The simulation was continued for 7 minutes of reactor time at which point boron began to accumulate in the core. The calculation demonstrates the importance of using three-dimensional neutron kinetics in conjunction with the modeling of the nuclear steam supply system for this type of transient. RAMONA-3B is unique in its ability to do this type of calculation.

  5. REF Scenario Viewer

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Futures Study Scenario Viewer National Renewable Energy Laboratory Loading Data and Visualizations NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy ...

  6. Scenario Analysis Meeting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation by Sigmund Gronich at the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure meeting on January 31, 2007.

  7. Brazil's biofuels scenario

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DO ETANOL Brazil's biofuels scenario: What are the main drivers which will shape investments in the long term? Artur Yabe Milanez Manager BNDES Biofuels Department LIVRO VERDE ...

  8. Develop BAU | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    in Energy Financing Transportation Demand Management (TDM) Encyclopedia U.S. National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap U.S. Photovoltaic Industry Roadmap UNDP Readiness for Climate...

  9. CP&L-3-B Wholesale Power Rate Schedule | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    3-B Wholesale Power Rate Schedule CP&L-3-B Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: Carolina Power & Light, Eastern Division System: Kerr-Philpott This rate schedule shall be available...

  10. DOE O 413.3B Program and Project Management for the Acquisition...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets DOE O 413.3B Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets On November 29, 2016, DOE O 413.3B was ...

  11. EIA Energy Efficiency-Table 3b. Value of Production a by Selected...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    and 2006 > Table 3b Page Last Modified: May 2010 Table 3b. Value of Production 1 by Selected Industries, 1998, 2002, and 2006 (Current Billion Dollars) MECS Survey Years NAICS...

  12. EVMS Training Snippet: 1.1 DOE Order 413.3B EVM Requirements...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1 DOE Order 413.3B EVM Requirements EVMS Training Snippet: 1.1 DOE Order 413.3B EVM Requirements This EVMS Training Snippet, sponsored by the Office of Project Management (PM), ...

  13. Capital Planning for DOE O 413.3B, Chicago | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Capital Planning for DOE O 413.3B, Chicago Capital Planning for DOE O 413.3B, Chicago March 30, 2016 8:00AM EDT to March 31, 2016 5:00PM EDT Capital Planning for DOE O 413.3B ...

  14. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  15. Description of GPRA08 scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Background information for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review providing a description of GPRA08 scenarios.

  16. DOE CD-3b Review of the MINERvA Project

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3b Review of the MINERvA Project Main INjector ExpeRiment v-A August 21, 2007 | Overview | CD-3b Documentation| Other Documents| Overview of Charge and Experiment MINERvA Overview (pdf) Review Agenda (pdf) Review Charge (pdf) DOE CD-3b Scorecard (pdf with links) Scorecard Addendum describing documents not needed by MINERvA for CD-3b (pdf with links) Review Presentations by MINERvA Project Team (links to appear the week of August 14) Project Overview (pdf) Scintillators (WBS 1.0) WLS Fibers (WBS

  17. Standard Scenarios Annual Report

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is conducting a study sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), that aims to document and implement an annual process designed to identify a realistic and timely set of input assumptions (e.g., technology cost and performance, fuel costs), and a diverse set of potential futures (standard scenarios), initially for electric sector analysis.

  18. Assessment of TRAC-BD1 amd RAMONA-3B codes fpr BWR ATWS application

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Neymotin, L.; Hsu, C.J.; Saha, P.

    1984-01-01

    Based on comparisons between the TRAC-BD1 power imposed calculation and the RAMONA-3B results, it can be said that the thermal-hydraulic models of both RAMONA-3B and TRAC-BD1 provide adequate representation of an ATWS event in a BWR. However, for the reactor power calculation, RAMONA-3B with space-time neutron kinetics is a superior and preferable tool to the TRAC-BD1 with point kinetics for ATWS type events where the spatial core power distribution varies with time. Also, the computer running time for RAMONA-3B (with 115 hydraulic cells and 192 neutronic cells has been found to be about four times lower than TRAC-BD1 (with 63 hydraulic cells and point kinetics). Therefore, it is recommended that RAMONA-3B be further used for best-estimate analysis of BWR ATWS-type events.

  19. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  20. Director's CD-3b Readiness Review of the MINERvA Project

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3b Readiness Review of the MINERvA Project Main INjector ExpeRiment v-A June 11, 2007 | Overview | CD-3b Documentation| Other Documents| Link to the Directorate Web Page for this Review Overview of Charge and Experiment MINERvA Overview (pdf) Review Agenda (pdf) Review Charge (pdf) DOE CD-3b Scorecard (pdf with links) Review Presentations by MINERvA Project Team Project Overview (pdf) Scintillators (WBS 1.0) WLS Fibers (WBS 2.0) and Clear Fiber Cables (WBS 4.0) (pdf) Phototubes (WBS 6.0) PMT

  1. Notice of Intent to Develop a Page Change to DOE O 413.3B, Program...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    a Page Change to DOE O 413.3B, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets by Diane Johnson The Page Change is a limited update to incorporate recent...

  2. Microsoft PowerPoint - DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Example BCP Template Microsoft PowerPoint - DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points in notes Read-Only CD-2, Approve Performance Baseline External Independent Review (EIR) Standard ...

  3. Notice of Intent to Revise DOE Order 470.3B, Graded Security...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    adversary numbers and capabilities to reflect the intent of the policy and the inherent risk management considerations. 15 NOV 23 - DOE O 470.3B Graded Security Protection (GSP)...

  4. Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool | Department...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool The ETI Energy Scenario Tool helps communities analyze different pathways to ...

  5. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Authors Preface This report is one of several products ... and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL's market models ... energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. ...

  6. Crystallization and preliminary diffraction studies of CBM3b of cellobiohydrolase 9A from Clostridium thermocellum

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jindou, Sadanari; Petkun, Svetlana; Shimon, Linda; Bayer, Edward A.; Lamed, Raphael; Frolow, Felix

    2007-12-01

    The cloning, expression, purification and crystallization of the CBM3b module of cellobiohydrolase 9A from C. thermocellum is described. The crystals diffract to 2.68 Å. Family 3 carbohydrate-binding modules (CBM3s) are associated with the scaffoldin subunit of the multi-enzyme cellulosome complex and with the family 9 glycoside hydrolases, which are multimodular enzymes that act on plant cell-wall polysaccharides, notably cellulose. Here, the crystallization of CBM3b from cellobiohydrolase 9A is reported. The crystals are tetragonal and belong to space group P4{sub 1} or P4{sub 3}. X-ray diffraction data for CBM3b have been collected to 2.68 Å resolution on beamline ID14-4 at the ESRF.

  7. Earned Value Management System (EVMS) for use with DOE O 413.3B

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2010-11-29

    DOE O 413.3B, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets, (the Order) was revised November 29, 2010. As a result, the companion 413.3 Series Guides must be revised to align with the requirements delineated in the Order.

  8. Rooftop Photovoltaics Market Penetration Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paidipati, J.; Frantzis, L.; Sawyer, H.; Kurrasch, A.

    2008-02-01

    The goal of this study was to model the market penetration of rooftop photovoltaics (PV) in the United States under a variety of scenarios, on a state-by-state basis, from 2007 to 2015.

  9. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  10. A spin-orbit alignment for the hot Jupiter HATS-3b

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Addison, B. C.; Tinney, C. G.; Wright, D. J.; Bayliss, D.

    2014-09-10

    We have measured the alignment between the orbit of HATS-3b (a recently discovered, slightly inflated Hot Jupiter) and the spin axis of its host star. Data were obtained using the CYCLOPS2 optical-fiber bundle and its simultaneous calibration system feeding the UCLES spectrograph on the Anglo-Australian Telescope. The sky-projected spin-orbit angle of ? = 3 25 was determined from spectroscopic measurements of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect. This is the first exoplanet discovered through the HATSouth transit survey to have its spin-orbit angle measured. Our results indicate that the orbital plane of HATS-3b is consistent with being aligned to the spin axis of its host star. The low obliquity of the HATS-3 system, which has a relatively hot mid F-type host star, agrees with the general trend observed for Hot Jupiter host stars with effective temperatures >6250 K to have randomly distributed spin-orbit angles.

  11. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Sullivan, John

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  12. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  13. Microsoft PowerPoint - DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points in notes

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    [Read-Only] | Department of Energy DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points in notes [Read-Only] Microsoft PowerPoint - DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points in notes [Read-Only] PDF icon Microsoft PowerPoint - DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points in notes [Read-Only] More Documents & Publications Example BCP Template Microsoft PowerPoint - DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points in notes [Read-Only] CD-2, Approve Performance Baseline External Independent Review (EIR) Standard Operating

  14. Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weiner, Ruth F.

    2010-09-01

    Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

  15. KELT-3b: A HOT JUPITER TRANSITING A V = 9.8 LATE-F STAR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pepper, Joshua; Siverd, Robert J.; Stassun, Keivan G.; Cargile, Phillip A.; Dhital, Saurav; Beatty, Thomas G.; Gaudi, B. Scott; Eastman, Jason; Fulton, Benjamin J.; Collins, Karen; Latham, David W.; Bieryla, Allyson; Calkins, Michael L.; Esquerdo, Gilbert A.; Berlind, Perry; Buchhave, Lars A.; Jensen, Eric L. N.; Manner, Mark; Penev, Kaloyan; Crepp, Justin R.; and others

    2013-08-10

    We report the discovery of KELT-3b, a moderately inflated transiting hot Jupiter with a mass of 1.477{sub -0.067}{sup +0.066} M{sub J}, radius of 1.345 {+-} 0.072 R{sub J}, and an orbital period of 2.7033904 {+-} 0.000010 days. The host star, KELT-3, is a V = 9.8 late F star with M{sub *} = 1.278{sub -0.061}{sup +0.063} M{sub sun}, R{sub *} = 1.472{sub -0.067}{sup +0.065} R{sub sun}, T{sub eff}= 6306{sub -49}{sup +50} K, log (g) = 4.209{sub -0.031}{sup +0.033}, and [Fe/H] = 0.044{sub -0.082}{sup +0.080}, and has a likely proper motion companion. KELT-3b is the third transiting exoplanet discovered by the KELT survey, and is orbiting one of the 20 brightest known transiting planet host stars, making it a promising candidate for detailed characterization studies. Although we infer that KELT-3 is significantly evolved, a preliminary analysis of the stellar and orbital evolution of the system suggests that the planet has likely always received a level of incident flux above the empirically identified threshold for radius inflation suggested by Demory and Seager.

  16. HATS-3b: AN INFLATED HOT JUPITER TRANSITING AN F-TYPE STAR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bayliss, D.; Zhou, G.; Schmidt, B.; Penev, K.; Bakos, G. .; Hartman, J. D.; Csubry, Z.; Jordn, A.; Suc, V.; Rabus, M.; Brahm, R.; Espinoza, N.; Mancini, L.; Mohler-Fischer, M.; Henning, T.; Nikolov, N.; Csk, B.; Bky, B.; Noyes, R. W.; Buchhave, L.; and others

    2013-11-01

    We report the discovery by the HATSouth survey of HATS-3b, a transiting extrasolar planet orbiting a V = 12.4 F dwarf star. HATS-3b has a period of P = 3.5479 days, mass of M{sub p} = 1.07 M {sub J}, and radius of R{sub p} = 1.38 R {sub J}. Given the radius of the planet, the brightness of the host star, and the stellar rotational velocity (vsin i = 9.0 km s{sup 1}), this system will make an interesting target for future observations to measure the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect and determine its spin-orbit alignment. We detail the low-/medium-resolution reconnaissance spectroscopy that we are now using to deal with large numbers of transiting planet candidates produced by the HATSouth survey. We show that this important step in discovering planets produces log g and T {sub eff} parameters at a precision suitable for efficient candidate vetting, as well as efficiently identifying stellar mass eclipsing binaries with radial velocity semi-amplitudes as low as 1 km s{sup 1}.

  17. ETI Energy Scenario Tool User Guide About the ETI Energy Scenario Tool

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ETI Energy Scenario Tool User Guide About the ETI Energy Scenario Tool The ETI Energy Scenario Tool is an Excel-based scenario model that calculates the cost of electricity for custom generation profiles. This tool is intended to model scenarios in Hawaii and other islands. Data Entry Screens Scenario Details The Scenario Details screen serves as the main menu for the Scenario Tool and the starting point for using the tool. On this screen, users can create a new scenario, copy and modify an

  18. update4_supplemental_lists_1c_2c_2c3b_041411updated_051711.xls | Department

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    of Energy update4_supplemental_lists_1c_2c_2c3b_041411updated_051711.xls update4_supplemental_lists_1c_2c_2c3b_041411updated_051711.xls Office spreadsheet icon update4_supplemental_lists_1c_2c_2c3b_041411updated_051711.xls More Documents & Publications List 2: Eligible Multifamily Buildings 10-CFR-440.22(b)(4)(ii) updated_supplemental_lists_1h-2h-3g- 11-4-2011.xlsx updated_supplemental_lists_1j-2j-3i_12-22-2011.xlsx

  19. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for compilation. This is a report describing the details of the selected Benchmarks and results from various transport codes.

  20. Constraints on the atmospheric circulation and variability of the eccentric hot Jupiter XO-3b

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong, Ian; Knutson, Heather A.; Cowan, Nicolas B.; Lewis, Nikole K.; Agol, Eric; Burrows, Adam; Deming, Drake; Fortney, Jonathan J.; Laughlin, Gregory; Fulton, Benjamin J.; Langton, Jonathan; Showman, Adam P.

    2014-10-20

    We report secondary eclipse photometry of the hot Jupiter XO-3b in the 4.5 ?m band taken with the Infrared Array Camera on the Spitzer Space Telescope. We measure individual eclipse depths and center of eclipse times for a total of 12 secondary eclipses. We fit these data simultaneously with two transits observed in the same band in order to obtain a global best-fit secondary eclipse depth of 0.1580% 0.0036% and a center of eclipse phase of 0.67004 0.00013. We assess the relative magnitude of variations in the dayside brightness of the planet by measuring the size of the residuals during ingress and egress from fitting the combined eclipse light curve with a uniform disk model and place an upper limit of 0.05%. The new secondary eclipse observations extend the total baseline from one and a half years to nearly three years, allowing us to place an upper limit on the periastron precession rate of 2.9 10{sup 3} deg day{sup 1} the tightest constraint to date on the periastron precession rate of a hot Jupiter. We use the new transit observations to calculate improved estimates for the system properties, including an updated orbital ephemeris. We also use the large number of secondary eclipses to obtain the most stringent limits to date on the orbit-to-orbit variability of an eccentric hot Jupiter and demonstrate the consistency of multiple-epoch Spitzer observations.

  1. Evaluation of BWR emergency procedure guidelines for BWR ATWS using RAMONA-3B code

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Neymotin, L.; Slovik, G.; Cazzoli, E.; Saha, P.

    1985-01-01

    An MSIV Closure ATWS calculation for a typical BWR/4 (Browns Ferry, Unit 1) was performed using the RAMONA-3B code which is a BWR systems transient code combining three-dimensional neutronic core representation with multi-channel one-dimensional thermal hydraulics. The main objective of the study was to perform a best-estimate evaluation of the recently proposed Emergency Procedure Guidelines for Anticipated Transients Without Scram (ATWS). Emphasis was placed on evaluating the effects of lowering the downcomer water level to the Top of Active Fuel (TAF) and vessel depressurization. The calculation was run up to approximately 1200 seconds. Both actions, namely, lowering the water level and vessel depressurization, lowered the reactor power to some extent. However, the pressure suppression pool water temperature still reached approximately 90/sup 0/C (potential High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) pump seal failure temperature) in twenty minutes. Thus, other actions such as boron injection and/or manual control rod insertion are necessary to mitigate a BWR/4 Main Steam Isolation Valve (MSIV) closure ATWS. 19 refs., 14 figs., 3 tabs.

  2. Transport Test Problems for Radiation Detection Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Miller, Erin A.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Benjamin S.

    2012-09-30

    This is the final report and deliverable for the project. It is a list of the details of the test cases for radiation detection scenarios.

  3. Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool Transcript

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This video demonstrates the Island Energy Scenario Tool developed for the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy's Technology-to-Market program.

  4. Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    analysis model that determines the optimal production and delivery scenarios for hydrogen, given resource availability and technology cost. Given annual H2 demands on a...

  5. Analysis of a typical BWR/4 MSIV closure ATWS using RAMONA-3B and TRAC-BD1 codes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hsu, C.J.; Neymotin, L.; Saha, P.

    1984-01-01

    Analysis of a typical BWR/4 Anticipated Transient Without Scram (ATWS) has been performed using two advanced, best-estimate computer codes, namely, RAMONA-3B and TRAC-BD1. The transient was initiated by an inadvertant closure of all Main Steam Isolation Valves (MSIVs) with subsequent failure to scram the reactor. However, all other safety features namely, the safety and relief valves, recirculation pump trip, high pressure coolant injection and the standby liquid (boron) control system were assumed to work as designed. No other operator action was assumed. It has been found that both RAMONA-3B (with three-dimensional neutron kinetics) and TRAC-BD1 (with point kinetics) yielded similar results for the global parameters such as reactor power, system pressure and the suppression pool temperature. Both calculations showed that the reactor can be brought to hot shutdown in approximately twenty to twenty-five minutes with borated water mass flow rate of 2.78 kg/s (43 gpm) with 23800 ppM of boron. The suppression pool water temperature (assuming no pool cooling) at this time could be in the range of 170 to 205/sup 0/F. An additional TRAC-BD1 calculation with RAMONA-3B reactor power indicates that the thermal-hydraulic models in RAMONA-3B, although simpler than those in TRAC-BD1, can adequately represent the system behavior during the ATWS-type transient.

  6. Tank waste remediation system operational scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, M.E.

    1995-05-01

    The Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) mission is to store, treat, and immobilize highly radioactive Hanford waste (current and future tank waste and the strontium and cesium capsules) in an environmentally sound, safe, and cost-effective manner (DOE 1993). This operational scenario is a description of the facilities that are necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. The TWRS Program is developing technologies, conducting engineering analyses, and preparing for design and construction of facilities necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is being prepared to evaluate proposed actions of the TWRS. This operational scenario is only one of many plausible scenarios that would result from the completion of TWRS technology development, engineering analyses, design and construction activities and the TWRS EIS. This operational scenario will be updated as the development of the TWRS proceeds and will be used as a benchmark by which to evaluate alternative scenarios.

  7. Hydrogen and FCV Implementation Scenarios, 2010- 2025

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation by DOE's Sig Gronich at the 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on August 9 - 10, 2006 in Washington, D.C.

  8. Sustainable Transport Illustrative Scenarios Tool | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Scenarios Tool has been developed as a high-level calculator (not an in-depth model) to help provide indicative estimates of the possible impacts of policy on transport...

  9. * j o n p o J d V I 3 | B ! 0 ! U U B S B

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    * j o n p o J d V I 3 | B 0 U U B S B p a j u a s a j d a j a q i o u p i n o q s ' a j o j a j a u . 1 ' P U B ( v i 3 ) u o i i B J i s i u j u i p v u o i j e a u o i - u...

  10. NREL: Energy Analysis - BSM: Biomass Scenario Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    BSM - Biomass Scenario Model Energy Analysis The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art, dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain. BSM explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. BSM uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain. The model

  11. The Future of Scenarios: Issues in Developing New Climate Change Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-06-01

    Research, analysis and commnetary since the release of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios has suggested a number of areas, e.g. rates of economic growth, downscaling and scenario likelihood, where additional research would make the next set of scenarios of greater use and increased credibility. This essary reviews the work on the areas mentioned above and makes suggestions about possible ways to improve the next set of climate scenarios, to be developed by the research community without a specific IPCC terms of reference to guide the work.

  12. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  13. Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool The ETI Energy Scenario Tool helps communities analyze different pathways to meet a given energy transition goal by modeling the levelized cost of electricity for custom, user-defined scenarios of supply and demand. Download the tool and user guide below. For step-by-step instructions on how to use the tool, watch the video. Package icon ETI Energy Scenario Tool PDF icon ETI Energy Scenario Tool

  14. 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis and Transition Strategies | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy - 2025 Scenario Analysis and Transition Strategies 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis and Transition Strategies Presentation by Sig Gronich at the 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on August 9 - 10, 2006 in Washington, D.C. PDF icon gronich_scenario_analysis.pdf More Documents & Publications Hydrogen and FCV Implementation Scenarios, 2010 - 2025 Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

  15. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios (Journal...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios Citation Details In-Document Search Title: ... with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) ...

  16. SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introduction...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Presentation Overview 1. SERA model overview 2. Methodology Scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development 3. Scenario example A "Hydrogen ...

  17. 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 This agenda provides information about the 2010 ...

  18. Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results This presentation by ...

  19. Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) (Redirected from CIFF-Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)) Jump to: navigation, search Retrieved from "http:...

  20. Typical BWR/4 MSIV closure ATWS analysis using RAMONA-3B code with space-time neutron kinetics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Neymotin, L.; Saha, P.

    1984-01-01

    A best-estimate analysis of a typical BWR/4 MSIV closure ATWS has been performed using the RAMONA-3B code with three-dimensional neutron kinetics. All safety features, namely, the safety and relief valves, recirculation pump trip, high pressure safety injections and the standby liquid control system (boron injection), were assumed to work as designed. No other operator action was assumed. The results show a strong spatial dependence of reactor power during the transient. After the initial peak of pressure and reactor power, the reactor vessel pressure oscillated between the relief valve set points, and the reactor power oscillated between 20 to 50% of the steady state power until the hot shutdown condition was reached at approximately 1400 seconds. The suppression pool bulk water temperature at this time was predicted to be approx. 96/sup 0/C (205/sup 0/F). In view of code performance and reasonable computer running time, the RAMONA-3B code is recommended for further best-estimate analyses of ATWS-type events in BWRs.

  1. Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) Model

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) Model (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) Objectives Determine optimal regional infrastructure development patterns for hydrogen and other transportation fuels, given resource availability and technology cost estimates. Geospatially and temporally resolve the expansion of production, transmission, and distribution infrastructure components. Identify and characterize niche markets and synergies related to refueling station placement and

  2. 3B.PDF

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    9 TABLE 10 COSTS OF FOREIGN TRAVEL TRIP DATES OF PARTICIPANTS* NUMBER TRIP COUNTRY PURPOSE FEDS NON-FEDS COST** 1993 1 June 1-5 France International Energy Agency Ministerial Meeting 8 0 $43,645 2 Sept 24-Oct 2 Austria International Atomic Energy Agency General Conference 35 0 $186,025 Russia Gore-Chernomyrdin Commission on Energy and Space Energy Policy Committee 3 Oct 22-26 England Keynote address to the "Oil & Money" Conference 13 0 $67,591 4 Dec 12-17 Russia Gore-Chernomyrdin

  3. Rolling in the modulated reheating scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kobayashi, Naoya; Kobayashi, Takeshi; Erickcek, Adrienne L. E-mail: takeshi@cita.utoronto.ca

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheating scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  4. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  5. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration Patrick Sullivan, Wesley Cole, Nate Blair, Eric Lantz, Venkat Krishnan, Trieu Mai, David Mulcahy, and Gian Porro National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-64072 July 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National

  6. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.; Pilaftsis, A.; Wagner, C. E. M.

    2016-02-18

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales MS above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass MH+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with amore » charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale MH± to the scale MS. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

  7. Data:A5e1ccd1-6885-43cf-8185-3b2c8e765008 | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ccd1-6885-43cf-8185-3b2c8e765008 No revision has been approved for this page. It is currently under review by our subject matter experts. Jump to: navigation, search Loading... 1....

  8. Molecular Basis for Complement Recognition and Inhibition Determined by Crystallographic Studies of the Staphylococcal Complement Inhibitor (SCIN) Bound to C3c and C3b

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garcia, Brandon L.; Ramyar, Kasra X.; Tzekou, Apostolia; Ricklin, Daniel; McWhorter, William J.; Lambris, John D.; Geisbrecht, Brian V.

    2010-10-22

    The human complement system plays an essential role in innate and adaptive immunity by marking and eliminating microbial intruders. Activation of complement on foreign surfaces results in proteolytic cleavage of complement component 3 (C3) into the potent opsonin C3b, which triggers a variety of immune responses and participates in a self-amplification loop mediated by a multi-protein assembly known as the C3 convertase. The human pathogen Staphylococcus aureus has evolved a sophisticated and potent complement evasion strategy, which is predicated upon an arsenal of potent inhibitory proteins. One of these, the staphylococcal complement inhibitor (SCIN), acts at the level of the C3 convertase (C3bBb) and impairs downstream complement function by trapping the convertase in a stable but inactive state. Previously, we have shown that SCIN binds C3b directly and competitively inhibits binding of human factor H and, to a lesser degree, that of factor B to C3b. Here, we report the co-crystal structures of SCIN bound to C3b and C3c at 7.5 and 3.5 {angstrom} limiting resolution, respectively, and show that SCIN binds a critical functional area on C3b. Most significantly, the SCIN binding site sterically occludes the binding sites of both factor H and factor B. Our results give insight into SCIN binding to activated derivatives of C3, explain how SCIN can recognize C3b in the absence of other complement components, and provide a structural basis for the competitive C3b-binding properties of SCIN. In the future, this may suggest templates for the design of novel complement inhibitors based upon the SCIN structure.

  9. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dey, Thomas N; Bos, Rabdall J

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  10. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sullivan, Patrick; Cole, Wesley; Blair, Nate; Lantz, Eric; Krishnan, Venkat; Mai, Trieu; Mulcahy, David; Porro, Gian

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  11. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  12. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2 Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2 ...

  13. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  14. NREL: Energy Analysis - Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Legacy Versions Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios - Legacy Versions This section contains earlier versions of NREL's Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios products. Looking for the latest versions of the ATB? Spring 2015 Draft Versions Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Spreadsheet ATB Summary Presentation Standard Scenarios Annual Report

  15. HIPPS concepts for a subsea field scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lund, B.F.; Onshus, T.; Aaroe, R.

    1995-12-31

    This paper is based on a feasibility study investigating the possibilities of using a HIPPS (High Integrity Pressure Protection System) to protect a subsea pipeline which is not rated for full wellhead shut-in pressure. Several different HIPPS configurations have been evaluated with respect to safety, production regularity and various qualitative criteria for use in a specific subsea field scenario containing six wells. A preliminary review of the feasibility of current technology for HIPPS applications has been made. The conclusion is that a subsea HIPPS can be designed with satisfactory safety performance based on current technology. The paper also covers requirements posed to the HIPPS equipment as well as general requirements for process design and operation when a pipeline not rated for full well shut-in pressure is present.

  16. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peterson, Steve

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  17. Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sevilla, J.; Welch, J.; ,

    2010-11-17

    Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about {+-}2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.

  18. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References (Technical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for

  19. Scenario-Driven Training | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Scenario-Driven Training Scenario-Driven Training An initial entry team member assesses the overall hazards in a clandestine lab. Y-12's Nuclear and Radiological Field Training Center equips military units, as well as federal, state and local emergency response agencies with the hands-on skills and knowledge they need to safely detect, safeguard and handle real nuclear and radiological sources. To test their skills, Y-12 has developed training exercises that include the following scenarios:

  20. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee; Jungels, John; Oppel III, Fred J.

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  1. Advanced ST Plasma Scenario Simulations for NSTX

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    C.E. Kessel; E.J. Synakowski; D.A. Gates; R.W. Harvey; S.M. Kaye; T.K. Mau; J. Menard; C.K. Phillips; G. Taylor; R. Wilson; the NSTX Research Team

    2004-10-28

    Integrated scenario simulations are done for NSTX [National Spherical Torus Experiment] that address four primary milestones for developing advanced ST configurations: high {beta} and high {beta}{sub N} inductive discharges to study all aspects of ST physics in the high-beta regime; non-inductively sustained discharges for flattop times greater than the skin time to study the various current-drive techniques; non-inductively sustained discharges at high {beta} for flattop times much greater than a skin time which provides the integrated advanced ST target for NSTX; and non-solenoidal start-up and plasma current ramp-up. The simulations done here use the Tokamak Simulation Code (TSC) and are based on a discharge 109070. TRANSP analysis of the discharge provided the thermal diffusivities for electrons and ions, the neutral-beam (NB) deposition profile, and other characteristics. CURRAY is used to calculate the High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating depositions and current drive. GENRAY/CQL3D is used to establish the heating and CD [current drive] deposition profiles for electron Bernstein waves (EBW). Analysis of the ideal-MHD stability is done with JSOLVER, BALMSC, and PEST2. The simulations indicate that the integrated advanced ST plasma is reachable, obtaining stable plasmas with {beta} {approx} 40% at {beta}{sub N}'s of 7.7-9, I{sub P} = 1.0 MA, and B{sub T} = 0.35 T. The plasma is 100% non-inductive and has a flattop of 4 skin times. The resulting global energy confinement corresponds to a multiplier of H{sub 98(y,2)} = 1.5. The simulations have demonstrated the importance of HHFW heating and CD, EBW off-axis CD, strong plasma shaping, density control, and early heating/H-mode transition for producing and optimizing these plasma configurations.

  2. Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clarke, Leon E.; Wise, Marshall A.; Placet, Marylynn; Izaurralde, R Cesar; Lurz, Joshua P.; Kim, Son H.; Smith, Steven J.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2006-09-18

    This report documents a scenario analysis that explores three advanced technology pathways toward climate stabilization using the MiniCAM model.

  3. Ethiopia-National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Baseline Scenarios...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Baseline Scenarios: Learning from Experiences in Developing Countries Jump to: navigation, search Name Ethiopia-National Greenhouse Gas Emissions...

  4. NREL: Energy Analysis - 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and CO2 emissions. NREL intends to consistently apply this scenario framework in its ongoing electric sector ...

  5. NREL's Enhanced Scenario Framework for Electricity Sector Analysis...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NREL's Enhanced Scenario Framework for Electricity Sector Analysis Provides Cost, ... October 19, 2015 Projections of potential energy futures are highly dependent on the ...

  6. Geographically Based Hydrogen Demand and Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation by Margo Melendez at the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure meeting on January 31, 2007.

  7. Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology ... Cybersecurity is important because the bi-directional flow of two-way communication and ...

  8. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References Lin...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Documentation: Data and References Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D. 09 BIOMASS FUELS BIOMASS SCENARIO MODEL; BSM; BIOMASS; BIOFUEL; MODEL; DATA; REFERENCES;...

  9. Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TOOL Name: Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database AgencyCompany Organization: Science for Global Insight Sector: Climate, Energy, Land Topics: Baseline projection, GHG...

  10. Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) Focus Area: Propane Topics: Opportunity Assessment & Screening Website: www.eutransportghg2050.eucms...

  11. Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Development of Sea Level Rise...

  12. Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Formulating Climate Change...

  13. Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Presentation by Paul Leiby of Oak Ridge National Laboratory at the Joint Meeting on Hydrogen Delivery ...

  14. Develop low emissions growth scenarios | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    low emissions growth scenarios Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities...

  15. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edeling, W.N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R.P.

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  16. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.; Grubler, Arnulf; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Joos, Fortunat; Kainuma, M.; Keeling, Ralph; Kram, Tom; Manning, Andrew; Meinhausen, Malte; Moss, Richard H.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Rose, Steven K.; Smith, Steven J.; Swart, Robert; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2010-06-01

    Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show that comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.

  17. Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

    1998-04-01

    The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology.

  18. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  19. Can WIMP dark matter overcome the nightmare scenario? (Journal Article) |

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    SciTech Connect Can WIMP dark matter overcome the nightmare scenario? Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Can WIMP dark matter overcome the nightmare scenario? Even if new physics beyond the standard model indeed exists, the energy scale of new physics might be beyond the reach at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and the LHC could find only the Higgs boson but nothing else. This is the so-called ''nightmare scenario.'' On the other hand, the existence of the dark matter has been

  20. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balducci, Patrick J.

    2008-04-03

    This report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The report presents and examines a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representative contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs are presented from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. Each scenario is examined and implications for PHEV development are explored.

  1. H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analyses

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation on H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analysis for the DOE Hydrogen Delivery High-Pressure Tanks and Analysis Project Review Meeting held February 8-9, 2005 at Argonne National Laboratory

  2. Microsoft Word - Scenario E w Amendments.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Assumptions o Treasury Rate 200bps (2.00%) o Initial Credit Spread 50 bps (0.50%) o TIC 250 bps (2.50%) Disclaimer: These scenarios are provided as a convenience for the...

  3. Microsoft Word - Scenario C w Amendments.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Assumptions o Bank Rate Treasury + 100bps (1.00%) o 10 Year Treasury 200 bps (2.00%) TIC 300 bps (3.00%) Disclaimer: These scenarios are provided as a convenience for the...

  4. Microsoft Word - Scenario D w Amendments.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Assumptions o Bank Rate Treasury + 100bps (1.00%) o 10 Year Treasury 200 bps (2.00%) TIC 300 bps (3.00%) Disclaimer: These scenarios are provided as a convenience for the...

  5. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prinn, Ronald; Webster, Mort

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  6. Community Solar Scenario Tool: Planning for a Fruitful Solar Garden

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As part of a Do-It-Yourself Solar Market Analysis summer series, NREL's Solar Technical Assistance Team (STAT) is presenting a live webinar titled, "Community Solar Scenario Tool: Planning for a...

  7. Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Methodology (December 2013) | Department of Energy Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology (December 2013) Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology (December 2013) The nation's power system consists of both legacy and next generation technologies. New grid technologies are introducing millions of novel, intelligent components to the electric grid that communicate in much more advanced ways than in

  8. WARM SPITZER PHOTOMETRY OF THREE HOT JUPITERS: HAT-P-3b, HAT-P-4b AND HAT-P-12b

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Todorov, Kamen O.; Deming, Drake; Knutson, Heather A.; Burrows, Adam; Fortney, Jonathan J.; Laughlin, Gregory; Lewis, Nikole K.; Cowan, Nicolas B.; Agol, Eric; Desert, Jean-Michel; Sada, Pedro V.; Charbonneau, David; Langton, Jonathan; Showman, Adam P.

    2013-06-20

    We present Warm Spitzer/IRAC secondary eclipse time series photometry of three short-period transiting exoplanets, HAT-P-3b, HAT-P-4b and HAT-P-12b, in both the available 3.6 and 4.5 {mu}m bands. HAT-P-3b and HAT-P-4b are Jupiter-mass objects orbiting an early K and an early G dwarf star, respectively. For HAT-P-3b we find eclipse depths of 0.112%+0.015%-0.030% (3.6 micron) and 0.094%+0.016%-0.009% (4.5 {mu}m). The HAT-P-4b values are 0.142%+0.014%-0.016% (3.6 micron) and 0.122%+0.012%-0.014% 4.5 {mu}m). The two planets' photometry is consistent with inefficient heat redistribution from their day to night sides (and low albedos), but it is inconclusive about possible temperature inversions in their atmospheres. HAT-P-12b is a Saturn-mass planet and is one of the coolest planets ever observed during secondary eclipse, along with the hot Neptune GJ 436b and the hot Saturn WASP-29b. We are able to place 3{sigma} upper limits on the secondary eclipse depth of HAT-P-12b in both wavelengths: <0.042% (3.6 {mu}m) and <0.085% (4.5 {mu}m). We discuss these results in the context of the Spitzer secondary eclipse measurements of GJ 436b and WASP-29b. It is possible that we do not detect the eclipses of HAT-P-12b due to high eccentricity, but find that weak planetary emission in these wavelengths is a more likely explanation. We place 3{sigma} upper limits on the |e cos {omega}| quantity (where e is eccentricity and {omega} is the argument of periapsis) for HAT-P-3b (<0.0081) and HAT-P-4b (<0.0042), based on the secondary eclipse timings.

  9. Synthesis, crystal structure and magnetic properties of Li{sub 0.44}Eu{sub 3}[B{sub 3}N{sub 6}

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kokal, I.; Aydemir, U.; Prots, Yu.; Frster, T.; Sichelschmidt, J.; Yahyaoglu, M.; Auffermann, G.; Schnelle, W.; Schappacher, F.; Pttgen, R.; Somer, M.

    2014-02-15

    Li{sub 0.44}Eu{sub 3}[B{sub 3}N{sub 6}] was synthesized from the metathesis reaction of Li{sub 3}[BN{sub 2}] and EuCl{sub 3} at 850 C. Li{sub 0.44}Eu{sub 3}[B{sub 3}N{sub 6}] crystallizes in the trigonal space group R3{sup }c (No. 167) with a=12.0225(2) , c=6.8556(2) and Z=6. In the crystal structure, isolated, planar cyclic [B{sub 3}N{sub 6}]{sup 9?} units are charge-balanced by the mixed-valence Eu{sup 3+}/Eu{sup 2+} and Li{sup +} cations. Li{sup +} occupies partially (44%) the Wyckoff site 6b and is sandwiched between the [B{sub 3}N{sub 6}]{sup 9?} anions. Mssbauer spectroscopy results show the resonance lines of Eu{sup 2+} and Eu{sup 3+}, respectively, indicating the heterogeneous mixed valency of the Eu atoms. X-Band ESR investigations between 5 and 300 K reveal an intense signal over the whole temperature range originating from Eu{sup 2+}. Magnetic susceptibility measurements indicate a CurieWeiss behavior with an experimental effective magnetic moment of ?{sub eff}=8.28 ?{sub B} per formula unit. - Graphical abstract: Single crystals of Li{sub 0.44}Eu{sub 3}[B{sub 3}N{sub 6}] was obtained from the metathesis reaction of Li{sub 3}[BN{sub 2}] and EuCl{sub 3.}{sup 151}Eu Mssbauer, ESR and magnetic susceptibility measurements reveal the heterogeneous mixed valency of the Eu atoms. Display Omitted - Highlights: Single crystals of Li{sub 0.44}Eu{sub 3}[B{sub 3}N{sub 6}] was obtained from the metathesis reaction of Li{sub 3}[BN{sub 2}] and EuCl{sub 3} at 850 C. Crystal structure is built up by isolated, planar cyclic [B{sub 3}N{sub 6}]{sup 9?} units which are surrounded by mixed valence Eu{sup 3+}/Eu{sup 2+}. Li{sup +} occupies partially (44%) the site 6b and is sandwiched between the [B{sub 3}N{sub 6}]{sup 9?} anions. The {sup 151}Eu Mssbauer spectroscopy, electron spin resonance spectroscopy and magnetic susceptibility measurements confirm the heterogeneous mixed valency of Eu.

  10. Safety evaluation of MHTGR licensing basis accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kroeger, P.G.

    1989-04-01

    The safety potential of the Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor (MHTGR) was evaluated, based on the Preliminary Safety Information Document (PSID), as submitted by the US Department of Energy to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The relevant reactor safety codes were extended for this purpose and applied to this new reactor concept, searching primarily for potential accident scenarios that might lead to fuel failures due to excessive core temperatures and/or to vessel damage, due to excessive vessel temperatures. The design basis accident scenario leading to the highest vessel temperatures is the depressurized core heatup scenario without any forced cooling and with decay heat rejection to the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). This scenario was evaluated, including numerous parametric variations of input parameters, like material properties and decay heat. It was found that significant safety margins exist, but that high confidence levels in the core effective thermal conductivity, the reactor vessel and RCCS thermal emissivities and the decay heat function are required to maintain this safety margin. Severe accident extensions of this depressurized core heatup scenario included the cases of complete RCCS failure, cases of massive air ingress, core heatup without scram and cases of degraded RCCS performance due to absorbing gases in the reactor cavity. Except for no-scram scenarios extending beyond 100 hr, the fuel never reached the limiting temperature of 1600/degree/C, below which measurable fuel failures are not expected. In some of the scenarios, excessive vessel and concrete temperatures could lead to investment losses but are not expected to lead to any source term beyond that from the circulating inventory. 19 refs., 56 figs., 11 tabs.

  11. Cosmological moduli problem in large volume scenario and thermal inflation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Choi, Kiwoon; Park, Wan-Il; Shin, Chang Sub E-mail: wipark@kias.re.kr

    2013-03-01

    We show that in a large volume scenario of type IIB string or F-theory compactifications, single thermal inflation provides only a partial solution to the cosmological problem of the light volume modulus. We then clarify the conditions for double thermal inflation, being a simple extension of the usual single thermal inflation scenario, to solve the cosmological moduli problem in the case of relatively light moduli masses. Using a specific example, we demonstrate that double thermal inflation can be realized in large volume scenario in a natural manner, and the problem of the light volume modulus can be solved for the whole relevant mass range. We also find that right amount of baryon asymmetry and dark matter can be obtained via a late-time Affleck-Dine mechanism and the decays of the visible sector NLSP to flatino LSP.

  12. Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Geneletti, Davide

    2012-01-15

    This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of how the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.

  13. Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  14. Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure ...

  15. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Systems Analysis 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure ...

  16. China-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name China-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  17. Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  18. Malaysia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Malaysia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  19. Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  20. India-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name India-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  1. Bangladesh-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Bangladesh-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  2. Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  3. Anti-cancer agents based on N-acyl-2, 3-dihydro-1H-pyrrolo[2,3-b] quinoline derivatives and a method of making

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gakh, Andrei; Krasavin, Mikhail; Karapetian, Ruben; Rufanov, Konstantin A; Konstantinov, Igor; Godovykh, Elena; Soldatkina, Olga; Sosnov, Andrey V

    2013-04-16

    The present disclosure relates to novel compounds that can be used as anti-cancer agents in the prostate cancer therapy. In particular, the invention relates to N-acyl derivatives of 2,3-dihydro-1H-pyrrolo[2,3-b]quinolines having the structural Formula (I), ##STR00001## stereoisomers, tautomers, racemics, prodrugs, metabolites thereof, or pharmaceutically acceptable salt and/or solvate thereof. The meaning of R1 is independently selected from H; C1-C6 Alkyl, cyclo-Alkyl or iso-Alkyl substituents; R2 is selected from C1-C6 Alkyl, cyclo-Alkyl or iso-Alkyl; substituted or non-substituted, fused or non-fused to substituted or non-substituted aromatic ring, aryl or heteroaryl groups. The invention also relates to methods for preparing said compounds, and to pharmaceutical compositions comprising said compounds.

  4. Communication: Theoretical prediction of the importance of the {sup 3}B{sub 2} state in the dynamics of sulfur dioxide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lvque, Camille; CNRS, LCPMR, UMR 7614, Paris Cedex 05; Theoretische Chemie, Physikalisch-Chemisches Institut, Universitt Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 229, D-69120 Heidelberg ; Taeb, Richard; CNRS, LCPMR, UMR 7614, Paris Cedex 05 ; Kppel, Horst

    2014-03-07

    Even though the sulfur dioxide molecule has been extensively studied over the last decades, its photo-excitation dynamics is still unclear, due to its complexity, combining conical intersections, and spin-orbit coupling between a manifold of states. We present a comprehensive ab initio study of the intersystem crossing of the molecule in the low energy domain, based on a wave-packet propagation on the manifold of the lowest singlet and triplet states. Furthermore, spin-orbit couplings are evaluated on a geometry-dependent grid, and diabatized along with the different conical intersections. Our results show for the first time the primordial role of the triplet {sup 3}B{sub 2} state and furthermore predict novel interference patterns due to the different intersystem crossing channels induced by the spin-orbit couplings and the shapes of the different potential energy surfaces. These give new insight into the coupled singlet-triplet dynamics of SO{sub 2}.

  5. A comparison of standard evasion scenarios at near regional distances

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bos, R.; App, F.; Jones, E.; Dey, T.; Kamm, J.

    1997-01-01

    We performed numerical simulations of three nuclear testing evasion scenarios. These calculations were done in two parts. The first part was done near source (within 10 km) with a non-linear weapons effects code. Particle velocity histories from the non-linear code were linked to an elastic linear finite-difference code for the second part. Seismic waveforms from the evasion scenario calculations were compared with the waveforms for a non-evasive explosion calculation at near regional distances. The results of this comparison suggest that it may be important to include realistic stratigraphy in such simulations: the overall wave amplitude in the present simulations is reduced by only a factor of 3-5 in contradiction to factors of 20-100 in {open_quotes}classical{close_quotes} decoupling analyses for ideal (i.e., unlayered) media. Two of the evasion scenarios simulated retain explosive waveform characteristics at near regional distances, while the third scenario indicates that certain source geometries might lead to more non-explosive (i.e., earthquake-like) seismic signals.

  6. Reliable Muddle: Transportation Scenarios for the 80% Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal for 2050 (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melaina, M.; Webster, K.

    2009-10-28

    Presentation describing transportation scenarios for meeting the 2050 DOE goal of reducing greenhouse gases by 80%.

  7. 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 This agenda provides information about the 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on August 9 - 10, 2006 in Washington, D.C. PDF icon scenario_analysis_agenda.pdf More Documents & Publications Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

  8. Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Infrastructure Meeting | Department of Energy 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting This agenda provides information about the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure meeting on January 31, 2007. PDF icon scenario_analysis_agenda1_07.pdf More Documents & Publications 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis

  9. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  10. Certifying the quantumness of a generalized coherent control scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scholak, Torsten Brumer, Paul

    2014-11-28

    We consider the role of quantum mechanics in a specific coherent control scenario, designing a “coherent control interferometer” as the essential tool that links coherent control to quantum fundamentals. Building upon this allows us to rigorously display the genuinely quantum nature of a generalized weak-field coherent control scenario (utilizing 1 vs. 2 photon excitation) via a Bell-CHSH test. Specifically, we propose an implementation of “quantum delayed-choice” in a bichromatic alkali atom photoionization experiment. The experimenter can choose between two complementary situations, which are characterized by a random photoelectron spin polarization with particle-like behavior on the one hand, and by spin controllability and wave-like nature on the other. Because these two choices are conditioned coherently on states of the driving fields, it becomes physically unknowable, prior to measurement, whether there is control over the spin or not.

  11. NREL: Energy Analysis - Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios Discussion Draft of NREL 2016 Annual Technology Baseline Now Available for Review NREL has posted a discussion draft of its 2016 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) for public comment through April 15, 2016. ATB Spreadsheet ATB Presentation-an appendix summarizes significant changes from the 2015 ATB. Written public comments are welcome and must adhere to these criteria to be considered: Comments must be submitted in writing to

  12. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    H2FAST National Renewable Energy Laboratory The Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, provides a quick and convenient in-depth financial analysis for hydrogen fueling stations. H2FAST is available in two formats: an interactive online tool and a downloadable Excel spreadsheet. The spreadsheet version of H2FAST offers basic and advanced user interface modes for modeling individual stations or groups of up to 10 stations. It provides users with detailed annual finance projections in

  13. ANTI-GLITCHES WITHIN THE STANDARD SCENARIO OF PULSAR GLITCHES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kantor, E. M.; Gusakov, M. E.

    2014-12-10

    Recent observations of a sudden spin down of the magnetar 1E2259+586, occurring on a timescale not exceeding two weeks (an event that has been dubbed an {sup a}nti-glitch{sup )}, still has not received any interpretation in terms of the standard scenario of pulsar glitches. Motivated by this observation, here we present a toy model that allows for anti-glitches in neutron stars under certain conditions within the standard approach.

  14. A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo

    2015-03-23

    Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesis potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.

  15. Radioactive waste management treatments: A selection for the Italian scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Locatelli, G. [Univ. of Lincoln, Lincoln School of Engineering, Brayford Pool - Lincoln LN6 7TS (United Kingdom); Mancini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milano (Italy); Sardini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Energy, Via Lambruschini 4, Milano (Italy)

    2012-07-01

    The increased attention for radioactive waste management is one of the most peculiar aspects of the nuclear sector considering both reactors and not power sources. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-art of treatments for radioactive waste management all over the world in order to derive guidelines for the radioactive waste management in the Italian scenario. Starting with an overview on the international situation, it analyses the different sources, amounts, treatments, social and economic impacts looking at countries with different industrial backgrounds, energetic policies, geography and population. It lists all these treatments and selects the most reasonable according to technical, economic and social criteria. In particular, a double scenario is discussed (to be considered in case of few quantities of nuclear waste): the use of regional, centralized, off site processing facilities, which accept waste from many nuclear plants, and the use of mobile systems, which can be transported among multiple nuclear sites for processing campaigns. At the end the treatments suitable for the Italian scenario are presented providing simplified work-flows and guidelines. (authors)

  16. Multiple Irradiation Capsule Experiment (MICE)-3B Irradiation Test of Space Fuel Specimens in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) - Close Out Documentation for Naval Reactors (NR) Information

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    M. Chen; CM Regan; D. Noe

    2006-01-09

    Few data exist for UO{sub 2} or UN within the notional design space for the Prometheus-1 reactor (low fission rate, high temperature, long duration). As such, basic testing is required to validate predictions (and in some cases determine) performance aspects of these fuels. Therefore, the MICE-3B test of UO{sub 2} pellets was designed to provide data on gas release, unrestrained swelling, and restrained swelling at the upper range of fission rates expected for a space reactor. These data would be compared with model predictions and used to determine adequacy of a space reactor design basis relative to fission gas release and swelling of UO{sub 2} fuel and to assess potential pellet-clad interactions. A primary goal of an irradiation test for UN fuel was to assess performance issues currently associated with this fuel type such as gas release, swelling and transient performance. Information learned from this effort may have enabled use of UN fuel for future applications.

  17. Executive Summary High-Yield Scenario Workshop Series Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leslie Park Ovard; Thomas H. Ulrich; David J. Muth Jr.; J. Richard Hess; Steven Thomas; Bryce Stokes

    2009-12-01

    To get a collective sense of the impact of research and development (R&D) on biomass resource availability, and to determine the feasibility that yields higher than baseline assumptions used for past assessments could be achieved to support U.S. energy independence, an alternate High-Yield Scenario (HYS) concept was presented to industry experts at a series of workshops held in December 2009. The workshops explored future production of corn/agricultural crop residues, herbaceous energy crops (HECs), and woody energy crops (WECs). This executive summary reports the findings of that workshop.

  18. Persisting cold extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kodra, Evan A; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Ganguly, Auroop R

    2011-01-01

    Analyses of climate model simulations and observations reveal that extreme cold events are likely to persist across each land-continent even under 21st-century warming scenarios. The grid-based intensity, duration and frequency of cold extreme events are calculated annually through three indices: the coldest annual consecutive three-day average of daily maximum temperature, the annual maximum of consecutive frost days, and the total number of frost days. Nine global climate models forced with a moderate greenhouse-gas emissions scenario compares the indices over 2091 2100 versus 1991 2000. The credibility of model-simulated cold extremes is evaluated through both bias scores relative to reanalysis data in the past and multi-model agreement in the future. The number of times the value of each annual index in 2091 2100 exceeds the decadal average of the corresponding index in 1991 2000 is counted. The results indicate that intensity and duration of grid-based cold extremes, when viewed as a global total, will often be as severe as current typical conditions in many regions, but the corresponding frequency does not show this persistence. While the models agree on the projected persistence of cold extremes in terms of global counts, regionally, inter-model variability and disparity in model performance tends to dominate. Our findings suggest that, despite a general warming trend, regional preparedness for extreme cold events cannot be compromised even towards the end of the century.

  19. The role of vector fields in modified gravity scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo; Koyama, Kazuya; Khosravi, Nima E-mail: kazuya.koyama@port.ac.uk

    2013-11-01

    Gravitational vector degrees of freedom typically arise in many examples of modified gravity models. We start to systematically explore their role in these scenarios, studying the effects of coupling gravitational vector and scalar degrees of freedom. We focus on set-ups that enjoy a Galilean symmetry in the scalar sector and an Abelian gauge symmetry in the vector sector. These symmetries, together with the requirement that the equations of motion contain at most two space-time derivatives, only allow for a small number of operators in the Lagrangian for the gravitational fields. We investigate the role of gravitational vector fields for two broad classes of phenomena that characterize modified gravity scenarios. The first is self-acceleration: we analyze in general terms the behavior of vector fluctuations around self-accelerating solutions, and show that vanishing kinetic terms of vector fluctuations lead to instabilities on cosmological backgrounds. The second phenomenon is the screening of long range fifth forces by means of Vainshtein mechanism. We show that if gravitational vector fields are appropriately coupled to a spherically symmetric source, they can play an important role for defining the features of the background solution and the scale of the Vainshtein radius. Our general results can be applied to any concrete model of modified gravity, whose low-energy vector and scalar degrees of freedom satisfy the symmetry requirements that we impose.

  20. China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong

    2004-03-10

    China has ambitious goals for economic development, and mustfind ways to power the achievement of those goals that are bothenvironmentally and socially sustainable. Integration into the globaleconomy presents opportunities for technological improvement and accessto energy resources. China also has options for innovative policies andmeasures that could significantly alter the way energy is acquired andused. These opportunities andoptions, along with long-term social,demographic, and economic trends, will shape China s future energysystem, and consequently its contribution to emissions of greenhousegases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, entitled China sSustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, theEnergy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organizationunder China's Na tional Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), soughtto explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the TenthFive-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable developmentstrategy. China's ability to forge a sustainable energy path has globalconsequences. China's annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprisenearly half of those from developing countries, and 12 percent of globalemissions. Most of China's greenhouse gas emissions are in the form ofCO2, 87 percent of which came from energy use in 2000. In that year,China's carbon emissions from energy use and cement production were 760million metric tons (Mt-C), second only to the 1,500 Mt-C emitted by theUS (CDIAC, 2003). As China's energy consumption continues to increase,greenhouse gas emissions are expected to inevitably increase into thefuture. However, the rate at which energy consumption and emissions willincrease can vary significantly depending on whether sustainabledevelopment is recognized as an important policy goal. If the ChineseGovernment chooses to adopt measures to enhance energy efficiency andimprove the overall structure of energy supply, it is possible thatfuture economic growth may be supported by a relatively lower increase inenergy consumption. Over the past 20 years, energy intensity in China hasbeen reduced partly through technological and structural changes; currentannual emissions may be as much as 600 Mt-C lower than they would havebeen without intensity improvements. China must take into account itsunique circumstances in considering how to achieve a sustainabledevelopment path. This study considers the feasibility of such anachievement, while remaining open to exploring avenues of sustainabledevelopment that may be very different from existing models. Threescenarios were prepared to assist the Chinese Government to explore theissues, options and uncertainties that it confronts in shaping asustainable development path compatible with China's uniquecircumstances. The Promoting Sustainability scenario offers a systematicand complete interpretation of the social and economic goals proposed inthe Tenth Five-Year Plan. The possibility that environmentalsustainability would receive low priority is covered in the OrdinaryEffort scenario. Aggressive pursuit of sustainable development measuresalong with rapid economic expansion is featured in the Green Growthscenario. The scenarios differ in the degree to which a common set ofenergy supply and efficiency policies are implemented. In cons ultationwith technology and policy experts domestically and abroad, ERI developedstrategic scenarios and quantified them using an energy accounting model.The scenarios consider, in unprecedented detail, changes in energy demandstructure and technology, as well as energy supply, from 1998 to 2020.The scenarios in this study are an important step in estimating realistictargets for energy efficiency and energy supply development that are inline with a sustainable development strategy. The scenarios also helpanalyze and explore ways in which China might slow growth in greenhousegas emissions. The key results have important policy implications:Depending on how demand for energy services is met, China could quadrupleits gross domestic product between 1998 and 2020 with energy use risingby 70 percent to 130 percent (Figure 1). Continual progress in improvingthe efficiency and structure of industry is crucial to maintainingeconomic growth with minimal growth in energy use. In some industries,output may grow with no rise in energy use at all. Swelling ranks ofmotor vehicles will deepen China's dependence on imported oil up to 320Mt per year by 2020 an amount that global markets can easily supply. Tomoderate growth in transportation energy use, the strong promotion ofconvenient public transport will be needed in addition to tighter fuelefficiency standards and advanced vehicles. Fuel switching, efficientappliances, better heating and cooling systems, and improved buildingenvelope technologies will be needed in the fast-growing buildingssector. By 2020, China will still b

  1. Methodology Using MELCOR Code to Model Proposed Hazard Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gavin Hawkley

    2010-07-01

    This study demonstrates a methodology for using the MELCOR code to model a proposed hazard scenario within a building containing radioactive powder, and the subsequent evaluation of a leak path factor (LPF) (or the amount of respirable material which that escapes a facility into the outside environment), implicit in the scenario. This LPF evaluation will analyzes the basis and applicability of an assumed standard multiplication of 0.5 × 0.5 (in which 0.5 represents the amount of material assumed to leave one area and enter another), for calculating an LPF value. The outside release is dependsent upon the ventilation/filtration system, both filtered and un-filtered, and from other pathways from the building, such as doorways (, both open and closed). This study is presents ed to show how the multiple leak path factorsLPFs from the interior building can be evaluated in a combinatory process in which a total leak path factorLPF is calculated, thus addressing the assumed multiplication, and allowing for the designation and assessment of a respirable source term (ST) for later consequence analysis, in which: the propagation of material released into the environmental atmosphere can be modeled and the dose received by a receptor placed downwind can be estimated and the distance adjusted to maintains such exposures as low as reasonably achievableALARA.. Also, this study will briefly addresses particle characteristics thatwhich affect atmospheric particle dispersion, and compares this dispersion with leak path factorLPF methodology.

  2. Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on January 31, 2007 Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario ...

  3. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell ...

  4. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the subsurface leak remaining subsurface accident

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-07-12

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Subsurface Leak Remaining Subsurface. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  5. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the subsurface leak remaining subsurface accident

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-19

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Subsurface Leak Remaining Subsurface. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  6. A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings Authors: Elizabeth J. Kelly and Raymond N. Tell

  7. Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF-27 scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krey, Volker; Luderer, Gunnar; Clarke, Leon E.; Kriegler, Elmar

    2014-04-01

    This apper discusses Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF-27 scenarios

  8. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Infrastructure Final List of Attendees | Department of Energy Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Final List of Attendees PDF icon scenario_analysis_attendees.pdf More Documents & Publications Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on January 31,

  9. Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mirko Previsic

    2010-06-17

    Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, wave energy conversion could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that, due to a lack of technical certainty, many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood,. In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based assessment to the emerging hydrokinetic technology sector in order to evaluate the potential impact of these technologies on the marine environment and navigation constraints. The project’s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental effects and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential range of technical attributes and potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders on the critical issues that need to be addressed. By identifying and addressing navigational and environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry’s development, serious mistakes that could potentially derail industry-wide development can be avoided. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry’s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two other project teams funded by DoE which are focused on regulatory issues (Pacific Energy Ventures) and navigational issues (PCCI). The results of this study are structured into three reports: (1) Wave power scenario description (2) Tidal power scenario description (3) Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns This is the first report in the sequence and describes the results of conceptual feasibility studies of wave power plants deployed in Humboldt County, California and Oahu, Hawaii. These two sites contain many of the same competing stakeholder interactions identified at other wave power sites in the U.S. and serve as representative case studies. Wave power remains at an early stage of development. As such, a wide range of different technologies are being pursued by different manufacturers. In order to properly characterize potential effects, it is useful to characterize the range of technologies that could be deployed at the site of interest. An industry survey informed the process of selecting representative wave power devices. The selection criteria requires that devices are at an advanced stage of development to reduce technical uncertainties, and that enough data are available from the manufacturers to inform the conceptual design process of this study. Further, an attempt is made to cover the range of different technologies under development to capture variations in potential environmental effects. Table 1 summarizes the selected wave power technologies. A number of other developers are also at an advanced stage of development, but are not directly mentioned here. Many environmental effects will largely scale with the size of the wave power plant. In many cases, the effects of a single device may not be measurable, while larger scale device arrays may have cumulative impacts that differ significantly from smaller scale deployments. In order to characterize these effects, scenarios are established at three deployment scales which nominally represent (1) a small pilot deployment, (2) a small commercial deployment, and (3) a large commercial scale plant. It is important to understand that the purpose of this study was to establish baseline scenarios based on basic device data that was provided to use by the manufacturer for illustrative purposes only.

  10. Culture, and a Metrics Methodology for Biological Countermeasure Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simpson, Mary J.

    2007-03-15

    Outcome Metrics Methodology defines a way to evaluate outcome metrics associated with scenario analyses related to biological countermeasures. Previous work developed a schema to allow evaluation of common elements of impacts across a wide range of potential threats and scenarios. Classes of metrics were identified that could be used by decision makers to differentiate the common bases among disparate scenarios. Typical impact metrics used in risk calculations include the anticipated number of deaths, casualties, and the direct economic costs should a given event occur. There are less obvious metrics that are often as important and require more intensive initial work to be incorporated. This study defines a methodology for quantifying, evaluating, and ranking metrics other than direct health and economic impacts. As has been observed with the consequences of Hurricane Katrina, impacts to the culture of specific sectors of society are less obvious on an immediate basis but equally important over the ensuing and long term. Culture is used as the example class of metrics within which • requirements for a methodology are explored • likely methodologies are examined • underlying assumptions for the respective methodologies are discussed • the basis for recommending a specific methodology is demonstrated. Culture, as a class of metrics, is shown to consist of political, sociological, and psychological elements that are highly valued by decision makers. In addition, cultural practices, dimensions, and kinds of knowledge offer complementary sets of information that contribute to the context within which experts can provide input. The quantification and evaluation of sociopolitical, socio-economic, and sociotechnical impacts depend predominantly on subjective, expert judgment. Epidemiological data is limited, resulting in samples with statistical limits. Dose response assessments and curves depend on the quality of data and its relevance to human modes of exposure. With uncertain data and limited common units, the aggregation of results is not inherently obvious. Candidate methodologies discussed include statistical, analytical, and expert-based numerical approaches. Most statistical methods require large amounts of data with a random distribution of values for validity. Analytical methods predominate wherein structured data or patterns are evident and randomness is low. The analytical hierarchy process is shown to satisfy all requirements and provide a detailed method for measurement that depends on expert judgment by decision makers.

  11. Thermal effects and sudden decay approximation in the curvaton scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kitajima, Naoya; Takesako, Tomohiro; Yokoyama, Shuichiro; Langlois, David; Takahashi, Tomo E-mail: langlois@apc.univ-paris7.fr E-mail: takesako@icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp

    2014-10-01

    We study the impact of a temperature-dependent curvaton decay rate on the primordial curvature perturbation generated in the curvaton scenario. Using the familiar sudden decay approximation, we obtain an analytical expression for the curvature perturbation after the decay of the curvaton. We then investigate numerically the evolution of the background and of the perturbations during the decay. We first show that the instantaneous transfer coefficient, related to the curvaton energy fraction at the decay, can be extended into a more general parameter, which depends on the net transfer of the curvaton energy into radiation energy or, equivalently, on the total entropy ratio after the complete curvaton decay. We then compute the curvature perturbation and compare this result with the sudden decay approximation prediction.

  12. Scenarios for the ATF2 Ultra-Low Betas Proposal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marin, Eduardo; Tomas, Rogelio; Bambade, Philip; Kuroda, Shigeru; Okugi, Toshiyuki; Tauchi, Toshiaki; Terunuma, Nobuhiro; Urakawa, Junji; Parker, Brett; Seryi, Andrei; White, Glen; Woodley, Mark; /SLAC

    2012-06-29

    The current ATF2 Ultra-Low beta proposal was designed to achieve 20nm vertical IP beam size without considering the multipolar components of the FD magnets. In this paper we describe different scenarios that avoid the detrimental effect of these multipolar errors to the beam size at the interaction point (IP). The simplest approach consists in modifying the optics, but other solutions are studied as the introduction of super-conducting wigglers to reduce the emittance or the replacement of the normal-conducting focusing quadrupole in the Final Doublet (NC-QF1FF) with a super-conducting quadrupole one (SC-QF1FF). These are fully addressed in the paper.

  13. Scenarios For The ATF2 Ultra-Low Betas Proposal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marin E.; Parker B.; Tomas R. Bambade Kuroda S. Okugi T. Tauchi T. Terunuma N. Urakawa J. Seryi A. White G. Woodley M.

    2010-05-23

    The current ATF2 Ultra-Low beta proposal was designed to achieve 20nm vertical IP beam size without considering the multipolar components of the FD magnets. In this paper we describe different scenarios that avoid the detrimental effect of these multipolar errors to the beam size at the interaction point (IP). The simplest approach consists in modifying the optics, but other solutions are studied as the introduction of super-conducting wigglers to reduce the emittance or the replacement of the normal-conducting focusing quadrupole in the Final Doublet (NC-QF1FF) with a super-conducting quadrupole one (SC-QF1FF). These are fully addressed in the paper.

  14. Inflation in a two 3-form fields scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kumar, K. Sravan; Marto, J.; Moniz, P. Vargas; Nunes, Nelson J. E-mail: jmarto@ubi.pt E-mail: pmoniz@ubi.pt

    2014-06-01

    A setting constituted by N 3-form fields, without any direct interaction between them, minimally coupled to gravity, is introduced in this paper as a framework to study the early evolution of the universe. We focus particularly on the two 3-forms case. An inflationary scenario is found, emerging from the coupling to gravity. More concretely, the fields coupled in this manner exhibit a complex interaction, mediated by the time derivative of the Hubble parameter. Our investigation is supported by means of a suitable choice of potentials, employing numerical methods and analytical approximations. In more detail, the oscillations on the small field limit become correlated, and one field is intertwined with the other. In this type of solution, a varying sound speed is present, together with the generation of isocurvature perturbations. The mentioned features allow to consider an interesting model, to test against observation. It is subsequently shown how our results are consistent with current CMB data (viz.Planck and BICEP2)

  15. Conventional armed forces in Europe: Technology scenario development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Houser, G.M.

    1990-07-01

    In January 1986, the Soviet Union's Mikhail Gorbachev proposed elimination of all nuclear weapons by the year 2000. In April of that year, Mr. Gorbachev proposed substantial reductions of conventional weapons in Europe, from the Atlantic Ocean to the Ural Mountains, including reductions in operational-tactical nuclear weapons. In May 1986, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) responded with the Brussels Declaration on Conventional Arms Control,'' which indicated readiness to open East/West discussions on establishing a mandate for negotiating conventional arms control throughout Europe. The Group of 23,'' which met in Vienna beginning in February 1987, concluded the meeting in January 1989 with a mandate for the Conventional Armed Forced in Europe (CFE) negotiations. On 6 March 1989, CFE talks began, and these talks have continued through six rounds (as of April 1990). Although US President George Bush, on 30 May 1989, called for agreement within six months to a year, and the Malta meeting of December 1989 called for completion of a CFE agreement by the end of 1990, much remains to be negotiated. This report provides three types of information. First, treaty provisions brought to the table by both sides are compared. Second, on the basis of these provisions, problem areas for each of the provision elements are postulated and possible scenarios for resolving these problem areas are developed. Third, the scenarios are used as requirements for tasks assigned program elements for possible US implementation of a CFE treaty. As progress is achieved during the negotiations, this report could be updated, as necessary, in each of the areas to provide a continuing systematic basis for program implementation and technology development. 8 refs.

  16. ACCELERATOR TRANSMUTATION OF WASTE TECHNOLOGY AND IMPLEMENTATION SCENARIOS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    D. BELLER; G. VAN TUYLE

    2000-11-01

    During 1999, the U.S. Department of Energy, in conjunction with its nuclear laboratories, a national steering committee, and a panel of world experts, developed a roadmap for research, development, demonstration, and deployment of Accelerator-driven Transmutation of Waste (ATW). The ATW concept that was examined in this roadmap study was based on that developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) during the 1990s. The reference deployment scenario in the Roadmap was developed to treat 86,300 tn (metric tonnes initial heavy metal) of spent nuclear fuel that will accumulate through 2035 from existing U.S. nuclear power plants (without license extensions). The disposition of this spent nuclear reactor fuel is an issue of national importance, as is disposition of spent fuel in other nations. The U.S. program for the disposition of this once-through fuel is focused to characterize a candidate site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada for a geological repository for spent fuel and high-level waste. The ATW concept is being examined in the U.S. because removal of plutonium minor actinides, and two very long-lived isotopes from the spent fuel can achieve some important objectives. These objectives include near-elimination of plutonium, reduction of the inventory and mobility of long-lived radionuclides in the repository, and use of the remaining energy content of the spent fuel to produce power. The long-lived radionuclides iodine and technetium have roughly one million year half-lives, and they are candidates for transport into the environment via movement of ground water. The scientists and engineers who contributed to the Roadmap Study determined that the ATW is affordable, doable, and its deployment would support all the objectives. We report the status of the U.S. ATW program describe baseline and alternate technologies, and discuss deployment scenarios to support the existing U.S. nuclear capability and/or future growth with a variety of new fuel cycles.

  17. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-07-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  18. Global Fits of the Minimal Universal Extra Dimensions Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bertone, Gianfranco; Kong, Kyoungchul; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; Trotta, Roberto; /Imperial Coll., London

    2012-06-22

    In theories with Universal Extra-Dimensions (UED), the {gamma}{sub 1} particle, first excited state of the hypercharge gauge boson, provides an excellent Dark Matter (DM) candidate. Here we use a modified version of the SuperBayeS code to perform a Bayesian analysis of the minimal UED scenario, in order to assess its detectability at accelerators and with DM experiments. We derive in particular the most probable range of mass and scattering cross sections off nucleons, keeping into account cosmological and electroweak precision constraints. The consequences for the detectability of the {gamma}{sub 1} with direct and indirect experiments are dramatic. The spin-independent cross section probability distribution peaks at {approx} 10{sup -11} pb, i.e. below the sensitivity of ton-scale experiments. The spin-dependent cross-section drives the predicted neutrino flux from the center of the Sun below the reach of present and upcoming experiments. The only strategy that remains open appears to be direct detection with ton-scale experiments sensitive to spin-dependent cross-sections. On the other hand, the LHC with 1 fb{sup -1} of data should be able to probe the current best-fit UED parameters.

  19. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-09-01

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.

  20. Alternative future scenarios for the SPS comparative assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ridker, R.G.; Watson, W.D. Jr.; Arnold, J.; Tayi, G.

    1980-08-01

    The objective of the comparative assessment is to develop an initial understanding of the SPS with respect to a limited set of energy alternatives. A comparative methodology report describes the multi-step process in the comparative assessment. The first step is the selection and characterization of alternative energy systems. Terrestrial alternatives are selected, and their cost, performance, and environmental and social attributes are specified for use in the comparison with the SPS in the post-2000 era. Data on alternative technologies were sought from previous research and from other comparisons. The object of this study is to provide a futures framework for evaluating SPS (i.e., factor prices, primary energy prices, and energy demands for the US from 1980 to 2030). The economic/energy interactions are discussed, and a number of specific modelling schemes that have been used for long-range forecasting purposes are described. This discussion provides the rationale for the choice of a specific model and methodology, which is described. Long-range cost assumptions used in the forecast are detailed, and the basis for the selection of specific scenarios follows. Results of the analysis are detailed. (WHK)

  1. Deployment Scenario of Heavy Water Cooled Thorium Breeder Reactor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mardiansah, Deby; Takaki, Naoyuki

    2010-06-22

    Deployment scenario of heavy water cooled thorium breeder reactor has been studied. We have assumed to use plutonium and thorium oxide fuel in water cooled reactor to produce {sup 233}U which will be used in thorium breeder reactor. The objective is to analysis the potential of water cooled Th-Pu reactor for replacing all of current LWRs especially in Japan. In this paper, the standard Pressurize Water Reactor (PWR) has been designed to produce 3423 MWt; (i) Th-Pu PWR, (ii) Th-Pu HWR (MFR = 1.0) and (iii) Th-Pu HWR (MFR 1.2). The properties and performance of the core were investigated by using cell and core calculation code. Th-Pu PWR or HWR produces {sup 233}U to introduce thorium breeder reactor. The result showed that to replace all (60 GWe) LWR by thorium breeder reactor within a period of one century, Th-Pu oxide fueled PWR has insufficient capability to produce necessary amount of {sup 233}U and Th-Pu oxide fueled HWR has almost enough potential to produce {sup 233}U but shows positive void reactivity coefficient.

  2. An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-10-01

    The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.

  3. Innovative Clean Coal Technology (ICCT): 500 MW demonstration of advanced wall-fired combustion techniques for the reduction of nitrogen oxide (NO{sub x}) emissions from coal-fired boilers. Phase 3B LNB AOFA tests

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, L.L.; Larsen, L.L.

    1993-12-13

    This Innovative Clean Coal Technology II project seeks to evaluate NO{sub x} control techniques on a 500 MW(e) utility boiler. This report is provided to document the testing performed and results achieved during Phase 3B--Low NO{sub x} Burner Retrofit with Advanced Overfire Air (AOFA). This effort began in May 1993 following completion of Phase 3A--Low-NO{sub x} Burner Testing. The primary objective of the Phase 3B test effort was to establish LNB plus AOFA retrofit NO{sub x} emission characteristics under short-term well controlled conditions and under long-term normal system load dispatch conditions. In addition, other important performance data related to the operation of the boiler in this retrofit configuration were documented for comparison to those measured during the Phase 1 baseline test effort. Protocols for data collection and instrumentation operation were established during Phase 1 (see Phase 1 Baseline Tests Report).

  4. Scenario driven data modelling: a method for integrating diverse sources of data and data streams

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Brettin, Thomas S.; Cottingham, Robert W.; Griffith, Shelton D.; Quest, Daniel J.

    2015-09-08

    A system and method of integrating diverse sources of data and data streams is presented. The method can include selecting a scenario based on a topic, creating a multi-relational directed graph based on the scenario, identifying and converting resources in accordance with the scenario and updating the multi-directed graph based on the resources, identifying data feeds in accordance with the scenario and updating the multi-directed graph based on the data feeds, identifying analytical routines in accordance with the scenario and updating the multi-directed graph using the analytical routines and identifying data outputs in accordance with the scenario and defining queries to produce the data outputs from the multi-directed graph.

  5. Preliminary analyses of scenarios for potential human interference for repositories in three salt formations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1985-10-01

    Preliminary analyses of scenarios for human interference with the performance of a radioactive waste repository in a deep salt formation are presented. The following scenarios are analyzed: (1) the U-Tube Connection Scenario involving multiple connections between the repository and the overlying aquifer system; (2) the Single Borehole Intrusion Scenario involving penetration of the repository by an exploratory borehole that simultaneously connects the repository with overlying and underlying aquifers; and (3) the Pressure Release Scenario involving inflow of water to saturate any void space in the repository prior to creep closure with subsequent release under near lithostatic pressures following creep closure. The methodology to evaluate repository performance in these scenarios is described and this methodology is applied to reference systems in three candidate formations: bedded salt in the Palo Duro Basin, Texas; bedded salt in the Paradox Basin, Utah; and the Richton Salt Dome, Mississippi, of the Gulf Coast Salt Dome Basin.

  6. Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2014-01-01

    Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From these five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.

  7. Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will Shape

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Investments in the Long Term? | Department of Energy Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will Shape Investments in the Long Term? Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will Shape Investments in the Long Term? Breakout Session 3C-Fostering Technology Adoption III: International Market Opportunities in Bioenergy Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will Shape Investments in the Long Term? Artur Milanez, Manager of Biofuels

  8. DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy August 9-10, 2006 DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 The U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting in Washington, DC, on August 9-10, 2006. The meeting was held to review preliminary results of DOE's hydrogen scenario analysis activities and to seek feedback from program stakeholders. The meeting brought together industry representatives, analysts, national laboratories, and DOE

  9. DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: January 31, 2007 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy January 31, 2007 DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: January 31, 2007 The U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting in Washington, DC, on January 31, 2007. This third and last meeting with program stakeholders was held to review DOE's hydrogen scenario analysis activities and to seek additional feedback from outside experts. The meeting brought together industry representatives, analysts, national

  10. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation | Department of Energy 1 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation PDF icon group_1_summary.pdf More Documents & Publications 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 2

  11. Scenario analysis of hybrid class 3-7 heavy vehicles.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    An, F.; Stodolsky, F.; Vyas, A.; Cuenca, R.; Eberhardt, J. J.

    1999-12-23

    The effects of hybridization on heavy-duty vehicles are not well understood. Heavy vehicles represent a broader range of applications than light-duty vehicles, resulting in a wide variety of chassis and engine combinations, as well as diverse driving conditions. Thus, the strategies, incremental costs, and energy/emission benefits associated with hybridizing heavy vehicles could differ significantly from those for passenger cars. Using a modal energy and emissions model, they quantify the potential energy savings of hybridizing commercial Class 3-7 heavy vehicles, analyze hybrid configuration scenarios, and estimate the associated investment cost and payback time. From the analysis, they conclude that (1) hybridization can significantly reduce energy consumption of Class 3-7 heavy vehicles under urban driving conditions; (2) the grid-independent, conventional vehicle (CV)-like hybrid is more cost-effective than the grid-dependent, electric vehicle (EV)-like hybrid, and the parallel configuration is more cost-effective than the series configuration; (3) for CV-like hybridization, the on-board engine can be significantly downsized, with a gasoline or diesel engine used for SUVs perhaps being a good candidate for an on-board engine; (4) over the long term, the incremental cost of a CV-like, parallel-configured Class 3-4 hybrid heavy vehicle is about %5,800 in the year 2005 and $3,000 in 2020, while for a Class 6-7 truck, it is about $7,100 in 2005 and $3,300 in 2020; and (5) investment payback time, which depends on the specific type and application of the vehicle, averages about 6 years under urban driving conditions in 2005 and 2--3 years in 2020.

  12. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation PDF icon ...

  13. Materials Data on BaU2O7 (SG:141) by Materials Project

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Kristin Persson

    2014-11-02

    Computed materials data using density functional theory calculations. These calculations determine the electronic structure of bulk materials by solving approximations to the Schrodinger equation. For more information, see https://materialsproject.org/docs/calculations

  14. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melaina, Marc

    2015-04-21

    This presentation describes the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, and provides an overview of each of the three H2FAST formats: the H2FAST web tool, the H2FAST Excel spreadsheet, and the H2FAST Business Case Scenario (BCS) tool. Examples are presented to illustrate the types of questions that H2FAST can help answer.

  15. Overview of the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian; Penev, Michael

    2015-05-12

    This presentation provides an introduction to the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) and includes an overview of each of the three versions of H2FAST: the Web tool, the Excel spreadsheet version, and the beta version of the H2FAST Business Case Scenario tool.

  16. Scenarios for the Hanford Immobilized Low-Activity Waste (ILAW) performance assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MANN, F.M.

    1999-03-17

    Scenarios describing representative exposure cases associated with the disposal of low activity waste from the Hanford Waste Tanks have been defined. These scenarios are based on guidance from the Department of Energy, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and previous Hanford waste disposal performance assessments.

  17. Scenarios of transition to chaos competition in low-temperature plasma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dimitriu, D. G.

    2013-11-13

    Dynamics of a fireball created in front of a positively biased electrode immersed into low-temperature plasma was experimentally investigated. By analyzing the time series of the oscillations of the current collected by the electrode, several successive scenarios of transitions to chaos were identified: by intermittencies, by cascade of sub-harmonic bifurcations and by quasi-periodicity (Ruelle-Takens scenario)

  18. A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of Shared Climate Policy Assumptions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Ebi, Kristie L.; Kram, Tom; Riahi, Keywan; Winkler, Harald; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-01

    The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key climate policy dimensions such as the type and scale of mitigation and adaptation measures. They are not specified in the socio-economic reference pathways, and therefore introduce an important third dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. Climate policy assumptions will have to be made in any climate policy scenario, and can have a significant impact on the scenario description. We conclude that a meaningful set of shared climate policy assumptions is useful for grouping individual climate policy analyses and facilitating their comparison. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.

  19. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.; Flores-Espino, F.; Miles, J.; Zammit, D.; Loomis, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

  20. Lifecycle Cost and GHG Implications of a Hydrogen Energy Storage Scenario (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steward, D. M.

    2010-05-01

    Overview of life cycle cost and green house gas implications of a hydrogen energy storage scenario presented at the National Hydrogen Association Conference & Expo, Long Beach, CA, May 3-6, 2010

  1. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence determination of a waste tank criticality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-08-02

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis forcriticality consequences for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report(FSAR). Criticality scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  2. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-09

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  3. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  4. Ontology-based Software for Generating Scenarios for Characterizing Searches for Nuclear Materials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ward, Richard C; Sorokine, Alexandre; Schlicher, Bob G; Wright, Michael C; Kruse, Kara L

    2011-01-01

    A software environment was created in which ontologies are used to significantly expand the number and variety of scenarios for special nuclear materials (SNM) detection based on a set of simple generalized initial descriptions. A framework was built that combined advanced reasoning from ontologies with geographical and other data sources to generate a much larger list of specific detailed descriptions from a simple initial set of user-input variables. This presentation shows how basing the scenario generation on a process of inferencing from multiple ontologies, including a new SNM Detection Ontology (DO) combined with data extraction from geodatabases, provided the desired significant variability of scenarios for testing search algorithms, including unique combinations of variables not previously expected. The various components of the software environment and the resulting scenarios generated will be discussed.

  5. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence determination of a waste tank criticality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for criticality consequences for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Criticality scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  6. LWR codes capability to address SFR BDBA scenarios: Modeling of the ABCOVE tests

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Herranz, L. E.; Garcia, M.; Morandi, S.

    2012-07-01

    The sound background built-up in LWR source term analysis in case of a severe accident, make it worth to check the capability of LWR safety analysis codes to model accident SFR scenarios, at least in some areas. This paper gives a snapshot of such predictability in the area of aerosol behavior in containment. To do so, the AB-5 test of the ABCOVE program has been modeled with 3 LWR codes: ASTEC, ECART and MELCOR. Through the search of a best estimate scenario and its comparison to data, it is concluded that even in the specific case of in-containment aerosol behavior, some enhancements would be needed in the LWR codes and/or their application, particularly with respect to consideration of particle shape. Nonetheless, much of the modeling presently embodied in LWR codes might be applicable to SFR scenarios. These conclusions should be seen as preliminary as long as comparisons are not extended to more experimental scenarios. (authors)

  7. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Infrastructure | Department of Energy Systems Analysis » 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Introducing hydrogen as an energy carrier would involve major changes in the country's energy and vehicle fleet infrastructure. Technical challenges, costs, and risk will be highest in the near-term, when markets are very small and the technology and infrastructure are immature.

  8. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios : a special report of Working Group

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Book) | SciTech Connect Book: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios : a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios : a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change × You are accessing a document from the Department of Energy's (DOE) SciTech Connect. This site is a product of

  9. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 2 Summary Presentation | Department of Energy 2 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 2 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Senario Analysis Meeting Discussion Group 2 Summary Presentation PDF icon group_2_summary.pdf More Documents & Publications 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 1

  10. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the steam intrusion from interfacing systems accident

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-07-25

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Steam Intrusion from Interfacing Systems. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  11. Climate Zone 3B | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    County, Texas Stonewall County, Texas Sutter County, California Sutton County, Texas Taylor County, Texas Tehama County, California Terrell County, Texas Terry County, Texas...

  12. Bremsstrahlung and gamma ray lines in 3 scenarios of dark matter annihilation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Giacchino, Federica; Tytgat, Michel H.G.; Lopez-Honorez, Laura E-mail: llopezho@vub.ac.be

    2014-08-01

    Gamma ray spectral features are of interest for indirect searches of dark matter (DM). Following Barger et al. we consider 3 simple scenarios of DM that annihilates into Standard Model (SM) fermion pairs. Scenario 1 is a Majorana DM candidate coupled to a charged scalar, scenario 2 is a Majorana DM coupled to a charged gauge boson and scenario 3 is a real scalar DM coupled a charged vector-like fermion. As shown by Barger et al., these 3 scenarios share precisely the same internal Bremsstrahlung spectral signature into gamma rays. Their phenomenology is however distinct. In particular for annihilation into light SM fermions, in the chiral limit, the 2-body annihilation cross section is p-wave suppressed for the Majorana candidates while it is d-wave suppressed for the real scalar. In the present work we study the annihilation into 2 gammas, showing that these three scenarios have distinct, and so potentially distinguishable, spectral signatures into gamma rays. In the case of the real scalar candidate we provide a new calculation of the amplitude for annihilation into 2 gammas.

  13. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  14. Table 8.3a Useful Thermal Output at Combined-Heat-and-Power Plants: Total (All Sectors), 1989-2011 (Sum of Tables 8.3b and 8.3c; Billion Btu)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a Useful Thermal Output at Combined-Heat-and-Power Plants: Total (All Sectors), 1989-2011 (Sum of Tables 8.3b and 8.3c; Billion Btu) Year Fossil Fuels Renewable Energy Other 7 Total Coal 1 Petroleum 2 Natural Gas 3 Other Gases 4 Total Biomass Total Wood 5 Waste 6 1989 323,191 95,675 461,905 92,556 973,327 546,354 30,217 576,571 39,041 1,588,939 1990 362,524 127,183 538,063 140,695 1,168,465 650,572 36,433 687,005 40,149 1,895,619 1991 351,834 112,144 546,755 148,216 1,158,949 623,442 36,649

  15. Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP results for the base case and scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems

    2009-12-03

    The NEMS-MP model generates numerous results for each run of a scenario. (This model is the integrated National Energy Modeling System [NEMS] version used for the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study [MP].) This appendix examines additional findings beyond the primary results reported in the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses (Reference 1). These additional results are provided in order to help further illuminate some of the primary results. Specifically discussed in this appendix are: (1) Energy use results for light vehicles (LVs), including details about the underlying total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), the average vehicle fuel economy, and the volumes of the different fuels used; (2) Resource fuels and their use in the production of ethanol, hydrogen (H{sub 2}), and electricity; (3) Ethanol use in the scenarios (i.e., the ethanol consumption in E85 vs. other blends, the percent of travel by flex fuel vehicles on E85, etc.); (4) Relative availability of E85 and H2 stations; (5) Fuel prices; (6) Vehicle prices; and (7) Consumer savings. These results are discussed as follows: (1) The three scenarios (Mixed, (P)HEV & Ethanol, and H2 Success) when assuming vehicle prices developed through literature review; (2) The three scenarios with vehicle prices that incorporate the achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) program vehicle cost goals; (3) The three scenarios with 'literature review' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies; and (4) The three scenarios with 'program goals' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies. The four versions or cases of each scenario are referred to as: Literature Review No Subsidies, Program Goals No Subsidies, Literature Review with Subsidies, and Program Goals with Subsidies. Two additional points must be made here. First, none of the results presented for LVs in this section include Class 2B trucks. Results for this class are included occasionally in Reference 1. They represent a small, though noticeable, segment of the 'LV plus 2B' market (e.g., a little more than 3% of today's energy use in that market). We generally do not include them in this discussion, simply because it requires additional effort to combine the NEMS-MP results for them with the results for the other LVs. (Where there is an exception, we will indicate so.) Second, where reference is made to E85, the ethanol content is actually 74%. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) assumes that, to address cold-starting issues, the percent of ethanol in E85 will vary seasonally. The EIA uses an annual average ethanol content of 74% in its forecasts. That assumption is maintained in the NEMS-MP scenario runs.

  16. An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhu Zhixi Bai, Hongtao Xu He Zhu Tan

    2011-11-15

    Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word 'scenario' appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.

  17. THE HYBRID CONe WD + He STAR SCENARIO FOR THE PROGENITORS OF TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, B.; Meng, X.; Liu, D.-D.; Han, Z.; Liu, Z.-W.

    2014-10-20

    Hybrid CONe white dwarfs (WDs) have been suggested to be possible progenitors of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). In this Letter, we systematically studied the hybrid CONe WD + He star scenario for the progenitors of SNe Ia, in which a hybrid CONe WD increases its mass to the Chandrasekhar mass limit by accreting He-rich material from a non-degenerate He star. We obtained the SN Ia birthrates and delay times for this scenario using to a series of detailed binary population synthesis simulations. The SN Ia birthrates for this scenario are ∼0.033-0.539 × 10{sup –3} yr{sup –1}, which roughly accounts for 1%-18% of all SNe Ia. The estimated delay times are ∼28 Myr-178 Myr, which makes these the youngest SNe Ia predicted by any progenitor model so far. We suggest that SNe Ia from this scenario may provide an alternative explanation for type Iax SNe. We also presented some properties of the donors at the point when the WDs reach the Chandrasekhar mass. These properties may be a good starting point for investigating the surviving companions of SNe Ia and for constraining the progenitor scenario studied in this work.

  18. Effect of separation efficiency on repository loading values in fuel cycle scenario analysis codes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radel, T.E.; Wilson, P.P.H.; Grady, R.M.; Bauer, T.H.

    2007-07-01

    Fuel cycle scenario analysis codes are valuable tools for investigating the effects of various decisions on the performance of the nuclear fuel cycle as a whole. Until recently, repository metrics in such codes were based on mass and were independent of the isotopic composition of the waste. A methodology has been developed for determining peak repository loading for an arbitrary set of isotopics based on the heat load restrictions and current geometry specifications for the Yucca Mountain repository. This model was implemented in the VISION fuel cycle scenario analysis code and is used here to study the effects of separation efficiencies on repository loading for various AFCI fuel cycle scenarios. Improved separations efficiencies are shown to have continuing technical benefit in fuel cycles that recycle Am and Cm, but a substantial benefit can be achieved with modest separation efficiencies. (authors)

  19. Neutronic Study of Slightly Modified Water Reactors and Application to Transition Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chambon, Richard; Guillemin, Perrine; Nuttin, Alexis; Bidaud, A.

    2007-07-01

    In this paper we have studied slightly modified water reactors and their applications to transition scenarios. The PWR and CANDU reactors have been considered. New fuels based on Thorium have been tested: Thorium/Plutonium and Thorium/Uranium- 233, with different fissile isotope contents. Changes in the geometry of the assemblies were also explored to modify the moderation ratio, and consequently the neutron flux spectrum. A core equivalent assembly methodology was introduced as an exploratory approach and to reduce the computation time. Several basic safety analyses were also performed. We have finally developed a new scenario code, named OSCAR (Optimized Scenario Code for Advanced Reactors), to study the efficiency of these modified reactors in transition to Gen IV reactors or in symbiotic fleet. (authors)

  20. Natural gas network resiliency to a %22shakeout scenario%22 earthquake.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E.

    2013-06-01

    A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.

  1. Hydrogen Scenarios

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation by Frances Wood of OnLocation Inc. at the Joint Meeting on Hydrogen Delivery Modeling and Analysis, May 8-9, 2007

  2. SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey; Donovan, Sally; Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel

    2014-06-01

    This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken here is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.

  3. THE SCENARIOS APPROACH TO ATTENUATION-BASED REMEDIES FOR INORGANIC AND RADIONUCLIDE CONTAMINANTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vangelas, K.; Rysz, M.; Truex, M.; Brady, P.; Newell, C.; Denham, M.

    2011-08-04

    Guidance materials based on use of conceptual model scenarios were developed to assist evaluation and implementation of attenuation-based remedies for groundwater and vadose zones contaminated with inorganic and radionuclide contaminants. The Scenarios approach is intended to complement the comprehensive information provided in the US EPA's Technical Protocol for Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) of Inorganic Contaminants by providing additional information on site conceptual models and extending the evaluation to consideration of Enhanced Attenuation approaches. The conceptual models incorporate the notion of reactive facies, defined as units with hydrogeochemical properties that are different from surrounding units and that react with contaminants in distinct ways. The conceptual models also incorporate consideration of biogeochemical gradients, defined as boundaries between different geochemical conditions that have been induced by waste disposal or other natural phenomena. Gradients can change over time when geochemical conditions from one area migrate into another, potentially affecting contaminant mobility. A recognition of gradients allows the attenuation-affecting conditions of a site to be projected into the future. The Scenarios approach provides a stepwise process to identify an appropriate category of conceptual model and refine it for a specific site. Scenario materials provide links to pertinent sections in the EPA technical protocol and present information about contaminant mobility and important controlling mechanism for attenuation-based remedies based on the categories of conceptual models.

  4. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  5. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tegen, S.

    2014-11-01

    NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

  6. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore wind deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic.

  7. Development of ITER 15 MA ELMy H-mode Inductive Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kessel, C. E.; Campbell, D.; Gribov, Y.; Saibene, G.; Ambrosino, G.; Casper, T.; Cavinato, M.; Fujieda, H.; Hawryluk, R.; Horton, L. D.; Kavin, A.; Kharyrutdinov, R.; Koechl, F.; Leuer, J.; Loarte, A.; Lomas, P. J.; Luce, T.; Lukash, V.; Mattei, M.; Nunes, I.; Parail, V.; Polevoi, A.; Portone, A.; Sartori, R.; Sips, A. C.C.; Thomas, P. R.; Welander, A.; Wesley, J.

    2008-10-16

    The poloidal field (PF) coil system on ITER, which provides both feedforward and feedback control of plasma position, shape, and current, is a critical element for achieving mission performance. Analysis of PF capabilities has focused on the 15 MA Q = 10 scenario with a 300-500 s flattop burn phase. The operating space available for the 15 MA ELMy H-mode plasma discharges in ITER and upgrades to the PF coils or associated systems to establish confidence that ITER mission objectives can be reached have been identified. Time dependent self-consistent free-boundary calculations were performed to examine the impact of plasma variability, discharge programming, and plasma disturbances. Based on these calculations a new reference scenario was developed based upon a large bore initial plasma, early divertor transition, low level heating in L-mode, and a late H-mode onset. Equilibrium analyses for this scenario indicate that the original PF coil limitations do not allow low li (<0.8) operation or lower flux states, and the flattop burn durations were predicted to be less than the desired 400 s. This finding motivates the expansion of the operating space, considering several upgrade options to the PF coils. Analysis was also carried out to examine the feedback current reserve required in the CS and PF coils during a series of disturbances and a feasibility assessment of the 17 MA scenario was undertaken. Results of the studies show that the new scenario and modified PF system will allow a wide range of 15 MA 300-500 s operation and more limited but finite 17 MA operation.

  8. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

    2015-08-01

    We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

  9. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the steam intrusion from interfacing systems accident

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Van Vleet, R.J.; Ryan, G.W.; Crowe, R.D.; Lindberg, S.E., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-03-04

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR): Steam Intrusion From Interfacing Systems. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included in the following sections to aid in the understanding of this accident scenario. Information validation forms citing assumptions that were approved for use specifically in this analysis are included in Appendix A. Copies of these forms are also on file with TWRS Project Files. Calculations performed in this document, in general, are expressed in traditional (English) units to aid understanding of the accident scenario and related parameters.

  10. SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melaina, M.

    2015-03-23

    This presentation provides an overview of the Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model, describes the methodology for developing scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development, outlines an example "Hydrogen Success" scenario, and discusses detailed scenario metrics for a particular case study region, the Northeast Corridor.

  11. Planet hunters. VII. Discovery of a new low-mass, low-density planet (PH3 C) orbiting Kepler-289 with mass measurements of two additional planets (PH3 B and D)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmitt, Joseph R.; Fischer, Debra A.; Wang, Ji; Margossian, Charles; Brewer, John M.; Giguere, Matthew J. [Department of Astronomy, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511 (United States); Agol, Eric [Department of Astronomy, Box 351580, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Deck, Katherine M. [Department of Physics and Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Rogers, Leslie A. [Department of Astronomy and Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, MC249-17, 1200 East California Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Gazak, J. Zachary [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Holman, Matthew J. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Jek, Kian J.; Omohundro, Mark R.; Winarski, Troy; Lintott, Chris; Simpson, Robert [Oxford Astrophysics, Denys Wilkinson Building, Keble Road, Oxford OX1 3RH (United Kingdom); Lynn, Stuart; Parrish, Michael [Adler Planetarium, 1300 South Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, IL 60605 (United States); Schawinski, Kevin [Institute for Astronomy, Department of Physics, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 16, CH-8093 Zurich (Switzerland); Schwamb, Megan E., E-mail: joseph.schmitt@yale.edu [Institute of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Academia Sinica: 11F Astronomy-Mathematics Building, National Taiwan University. No.1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China); and others

    2014-11-10

    We report the discovery of one newly confirmed planet (P = 66.06 days, R {sub P} = 2.68 0.17 R {sub ?}) and mass determinations of two previously validated Kepler planets, Kepler-289 b (P = 34.55 days, R {sub P} = 2.15 0.10 R {sub ?}) and Kepler-289-c (P = 125.85 days, R {sub P} = 11.59 0.10 R {sub ?}), through their transit timing variations (TTVs). We also exclude the possibility that these three planets reside in a 1:2:4 Laplace resonance. The outer planet has very deep (?1.3%), high signal-to-noise transits, which puts extremely tight constraints on its host star's stellar properties via Kepler's Third Law. The star PH3 is a young (?1 Gyr as determined by isochrones and gyrochronology), Sun-like star with M {sub *} = 1.08 0.02 M {sub ?}, R {sub *} = 1.00 0.02 R {sub ?}, and T {sub eff} = 5990 38 K. The middle planet's large TTV amplitude (?5 hr) resulted either in non-detections or inaccurate detections in previous searches. A strong chopping signal, a shorter period sinusoid in the TTVs, allows us to break the mass-eccentricity degeneracy and uniquely determine the masses of the inner, middle, and outer planets to be M = 7.3 6.8 M {sub ?}, 4.0 0.9M {sub ?}, and M = 132 17 M {sub ?}, which we designate PH3 b, c, and d, respectively. Furthermore, the middle planet, PH3 c, has a relatively low density, ? = 1.2 0.3 g cm{sup 3} for a planet of its mass, requiring a substantial H/He atmosphere of 2.1{sub ?0.3}{sup +0.8}% by mass, and joins a growing population of low-mass, low-density planets.

  12. Progress in preparing scenarios for operation of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Sips, A. C. C.; European Commission, Brussels; Giruzzi, G.; Ide, S.; Kessel, C.; Luce, T. C.; Snipes, J. A.; Stober, J. K.

    2015-02-01

    The development of operating scenarios is one of the key issues in the research for ITER which aims to achieve a fusion gain (Q) of ~10, while producing 500MW of fusion power for ≥300 s. The ITER Research plan proposes a success oriented schedule starting in hydrogen and helium, to be followed by a nuclear operation phase with a rapid development towards Q ~ 10 in deuterium/tritium. The Integrated Operation Scenarios Topical Group of the International Tokamak Physics Activity initiates joint activities among worldwide institutions and experiments to prepare ITER operation. Plasma formation studies report robust plasma breakdown in devicesmore » with metal walls over a wide range of conditions, while other experiments use an inclined EC launch angle at plasma formation to mimic the conditions in ITER. Simulations of the plasma burn-through predict that at least 4MW of Electron Cyclotron heating (EC) assist would be required in ITER. For H-modes at q₉₅~ 3, many experiments have demonstrated operation with scaled parameters for the ITER baseline scenario at ne/nGW ~ 0.85. Most experiments, however, obtain stable discharges at H₉₈(y,2) ~ 1.0 only for bN = 2.0–2.2. For the rampup in ITER, early X-point formation is recommended, allowing auxiliary heating to reduce the flux consumption. A range of plasma inductance (li(3)) can be obtained from 0.65 to 1.0, with the lowest values obtained in H-mode operation. For the rampdown, the plasma should stay diverted maintaining H-mode together with a reduction of the elongation from 1.85 to 1.4. Simulations show that the proposed rampup and rampdown schemes developed since 2007 are compatible with the present ITER design for the poloidal field coils. At 13–15 MA and densities down to ne/nGW ~ 0.5, long pulse operation (>1000 s) in ITER is possible at Q ~ 5, useful to provide neutron fluence for Test Blanket Module assessments. ITER scenario preparation in hydrogen and helium requires high input power (>50 MW). H-mode operation in helium may be possible at input powers above 35MW at a toroidal field of 2.65T, for studying H-modes and ELM mitigation. In hydrogen, H-mode operation is expected to be marginal, even at 2.65T with 60MW of input power. Simulation code benchmark studies using hybrid and steady state scenario parameters have proved to be a very challenging and lengthy task of testing suites of codes, consisting of tens of sophisticated modules. Nevertheless, the general basis of the modelling appears sound, with substantial consistency among codes developed by different groups. For a hybrid scenario at 12 MA, the code simulations give a range for Q = 6.5–8.3, using 30MW neutral beam injection and 20MW ICRH. For non-inductive operation at 7–9 MA, the simulation results show more variation. At high edge pedestal pressure (Tped ~ 7 keV), the codes predict Q = 3.3–3.8 using 33MW NB, 20MW EC, and 20MW ion cyclotron to demonstrate the feasibility of steady-state operation with the day-1 heating systems in ITER. Simulations using a lower edge pedestal temperature (~3 keV) but improved core confinement obtain Q = 5–6.5, when ECCD is concentrated at mid-radius and ~ 20MW off-axis current drive (ECCD or LHCD) is added. Several issues remain to be studied, including plasmas with dominant electron heating, mitigation of transient heat loads integrated in scenario demonstrations and (burn) control simulations in ITER scenarios.« less

  13. Implementation Scenarios for Electric Vehicle Roadway Wireless Power Transfer (Poster), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Implementation Scenarios for Electric Vehicle Roadway Wireless Power Transfer A. Meintz, T. Markel, E. Burton, L. Wang, J. Gonder, A. Brooker, and A. Konan Work sponsored by United States Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicles Technologies Office, Vehicle Systems Program The information contained in this poster is subject to a government license. 2015 IEEE PELS Workshop on

  14. The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF 27 scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Luderer, Gunnar; Krey, Volker; Calvin, Katherine V.; Merrick, James; Mima, Silvana; Pietzcker, Robert; Van Vliet, Jasper; Wada, Kenichi

    2013-10-15

    This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate policy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; howeverwith the exception of low temperature heatthere is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in climate change mitigation scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on mitigation costs, if nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)which can serve as substitutes in low-carbon power supplyare available. Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power by contrast, results in a more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results on renewable energy deployment levels vary considerably across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resource potentials and systems integration.

  15. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios S. Tegen, D. Keyser, and F. Flores-Espino National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Miles and D. Zammit James Madison University D. Loomis Great Lakes Wind Network Technical Report NREL/TP-5000-61315 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is

  16. Chemical aspects of cylinder corrosion and a scenario for hole development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barber, E.J.

    1991-12-31

    In June 1990, two cylinders in the depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards at Portsmouth were discovered to have holes in their walls at the valve-end stiffening ring at a point below the level of the gas-solid interface of the UF{sub 6}. The cylinder with the larger hole, which extended under the stiffening ring, was stacked in a top row 13 years ago. The cylinder with the smaller hole had been stacked in a bottom row 4 years ago. The lifting lugs of the adjacent cylinders pointed directly at the holes. A Cylinder Investigating Committee was appointed to determine the cause or causes of the holes and to assess the implications of these findings. This report contains a listing of the chemically related facts established by the Investigating Committee with the cooperation of the Operations and Technical Support Divisions at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the scenario developed to explain these findings and some implications of this scenario. In summary, the interrelated reactions of water, solid UF{sub 6} and iron presented by R. L. Ritter are used to develop a scenario which explains the observations and deductions made during the investigation. The chemical processes are intimately related to the course of the last three of the four stages of hole development. A simple model is proposed which permits semiquantitative prediction of such information as the HF loss rates as a function of time, the rate of hole enlargement, the time to hydrolyze a cylinder of UF{sub 6} and the approximate size of the hole. The scenario suggests that the environmental consequences associated with a developing hole in a depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder are minimal for the first several years but will become significant if too many years pass before detection. The overall environmental picture is presented in more detail elsewhere.

  17. PF coil voltage optimization for start-up scenarios in air core tokamaks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Albanese, R.; Martone, R.; Ambrosino, G.; Pironti, A.

    1994-09-01

    The basic features of a procedure for the optimization of the plasma scenario in an air core tokamak are presented. The method takes into account the eddy currents in the passive conducting structures. The problem is reduced to the synthesis of time-varying magnetic field. The solution of this inverse electromagnetic problem is carried out by means of an optimization procedure based on the receding horizon approach. The paper includes an example of application to the ITER tokamak.

  18. Binary interactions as a possible scenario for the formation of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jiang, Dengkai; Han, Zhanwen; Li, Lifang E-mail: zhanwenhan@ynao.ac.cn

    2014-07-01

    Observations have revealed the presence of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters (GCs) that exhibit wide abundance variations and multiple sequences in the Hertzsprung-Russell (HR) diagram. We present a scenario for the formation of multiple stellar populations in GCs. In this scenario, initial GCs are single-generation clusters, and our model predicts that the stars with anomalous abundances observed in GCs are merged stars and accretor stars produced by binary interactions—rapidly rotating stars at the moment of their formation—and that these stars are more massive than normal single stars in the same evolutionary stage. We find that, due to their own evolution, these rapidly rotating stars have surface abundances, effective temperatures, and luminosities that are different from normal single stars in the same evolutionary stage. This stellar population of binaries reproduces two important points of observational evidence of multiple stellar populations: a Na-O anticorrelation and multiple sequences in the HR diagram. This evidence suggests that binary interactions may be a possible scenario for the formation of multiple stellar populations in GCs.

  19. The Importance of High Temporal Resolution in Modeling Renewable Energy Penetration Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nicolosi, Marco; Mills, Andrew D; Wiser, Ryan H

    2010-10-08

    Traditionally, modeling investment and dispatch problems in electricity economics has been limited by computation power. Due to this limitation, simplifications are applied. One common practice, for example, is to reduce the temporal resolution of the dispatch by clustering similar load levels. The increase of intermittent electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) changes the validity of this assumption. RES-E already cover a certain amount of the total demand. This leaves an increasingly volatile residual demand to be matched by the conventional power market. This paper quantifies differences in investment decisions by applying three different time-resolution residual load patterns in an investment and dispatch power system model. The model optimizes investment decisions in five year steps between today and 2030 with residual load levels for 8760, 288 and 16 time slices per year. The market under consideration is the four zone ERCOT market in Texas. The results show that investment decisions significantly differ across the three scenarios. In particular, investments into base-load technologies are substantially reduced in the high resolution scenario (8760 residual load levels) relative to the scenarios with lower temporal resolution. Additionally, the amount of RES-E curtailment and the market value of RES-E exhibit noteworthy differences.

  20. Low and high energy phenomenology of quark-lepton complementarity scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hochmuth, Kathrin A. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Foehringer Ring 6, D-80805 Munich (Germany); Rodejohann, Werner [Physik-Department, Technische Universitaet Muenchen, James-Franck-Strasse, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

    2007-04-01

    We conduct a detailed analysis of the phenomenology of two predictive seesaw scenarios leading to quark-lepton complementarity. In both cases we discuss the neutrino mixing observables and their correlations, neutrinoless double beta decay and lepton flavor violating decays such as {mu}{yields}e{gamma}. We also comment on leptogenesis. The first scenario is disfavored on the level of one to two standard deviations, in particular, due to its prediction for |U{sub e3}|. There can be resonant leptogenesis with quasidegenerate heavy and light neutrinos, which would imply sizable cancellations in neutrinoless double beta decay. The decays {mu}{yields}e{gamma} and {tau}{yields}{mu}{gamma} are typically observable unless the SUSY masses approach the TeV scale. In the second scenario leptogenesis is impossible. It is, however, in perfect agreement with all oscillation data. The prediction for {mu}{yields}e{gamma} is in general too large, unless the SUSY masses are in the range of several TeV. In this case {tau}{yields}e{gamma} and {tau}{yields}{mu}{gamma} are unobservable.

  1. Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Denholm, P.; Wan, Y. H.; Hummon, M.; Mehos, M.

    2013-03-01

    This analysis evaluates CSP with TES in a scenario where California derives 33% of its electricity from renewable energy sources. It uses a commercial grid simulation tool to examine the avoided operational and capacity costs associated with CSP and compares this value to PV and a baseload generation with constant output. Overall, the analysis demonstrates several properties of dispatchable CSP, including the flexibility to generate during periods of high value and avoid generation during periods of lower value. Of note in this analysis is the fact that significant amount of operational value is derived from the provision of reserves in the case where CSP is allowed to provide these services. This analysis also indicates that the 'optimal' configuration of CSP could vary as a function of renewable penetration, and each configuration will need to be evaluated in terms of its ability to provide dispatchable energy, reserves, and firm capacity. The model can be used to investigate additional scenarios involving alternative technology options and generation mixes, applying these scenarios within California or in other regions of interest.

  2. Representing Instructional Material for Scenario-Based Guided-Discovery Courseware

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Merrill, M. DAVID.; Rice, Douglas M.; Curtis, Darren S.

    2004-12-06

    The focus of this paper is to discuss paradigms for learning that are based on sound principles of human learning and cognition, and to discuss technical challenges that must be overcome in achieving this research goal through instructional system design (ISD) approaches that are cost-effective as well as conformant with today's interactive multimedia instruction standards. Fundamental concepts are to: engage learners to solve real-world problems (progress from simple to complex); relate material to previous experience; demonstrate what is to be learned using interactive, problem-centered activities rather than passive exposure to material; require learners to use their new knowledge to solve problems that demonstrate their knowledge in a relevant applied setting; and guide the learner with feedback and coaching early, then gradually withdraw this support as learning progresses. Many of these principles have been put into practice by employing interactive learning objects as re-usable components of larger, more integrated exercises. A challenge is to make even more extensive use of interactive, scenario-based activities within a guided-discovery framework. Because the design and construction of interactive, scenario-based learning objects and more complex integrated exercises is labor-intensive, this paper explores the use of interactive learning objects and associated representation schema for instructional content to facilitate development of tools for creating scenario-based, guided-discovery courseware.

  3. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hong Jinglan; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

    2010-11-15

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

  4. A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ebi, Kristie L.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Arnell, Nigel; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Kriegler, Elmar; Mathur, Ritu; O'Neill, Brian; Riahi, Keywan; Winkler, Harald; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Zwickel, Timm

    2014-02-01

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes could pose to human and natural systems; how these could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce those risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to, and process of, developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, described in three other papers in this Special Issue (van Vuuren et al.; O'Neill et al.; Kriegler et al.). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop and apply this framework. The goal is to encourage climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to work together to develop policy-relevant scenarios and explore the implications of different possible futures for the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with increasing climate change.

  5. MSSM Higgs Boson Searches at the LHC: Benchmark Scenarios after the Discovery of a Higgs-like Particle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carena, M.; Heinemeyer, S.; Stål, O.; Wagner, C.E.M.; Weiglein, G.

    2013-09-01

    A Higgs-like particle with a mass of about 125.5 GeV has been discovered at the LHC. Within the current experimental uncertainties, this new state is compatible with both the predictions for the Standard Model (SM) Higgs boson and with the Higgs sector in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). We propose new low-energy MSSM benchmark scenarios that, over a wide parameter range, are compatible with the mass and production rates of the observed signal. These scenarios also exhibit interesting phenomenology for the MSSM Higgs sector. We propose a slightly updated version of the well-known mh-max scenario, and a modified scenario (mh-mod), where the light CP-even Higgs boson can be interpreted as the LHC signal in large parts of the MA-tan \\beta\\ plane. Furthermore, we define a light stop scenario that leads to a suppression of the lightest CP-even Higgs gluon fusion rate, and a light stau scenario with an enhanced decay rate of h to \\gamma\\gamma\\ at large tan \\beta. We also suggest a \\tau-phobic Higgs scenario in which the lightest Higgs can have suppressed couplings to down-type fermions. We propose to supplement the specified value of the \\mu\\ parameter in some of these scenarios with additional values of both signs. This has a significant impact on the interpretation of searches for the non SM-like MSSM Higgs bosons. We also discuss the sensitivity of the searches to heavy Higgs decays into light charginos and neutralinos, and to decays of the form H to hh. Finally, in addition to all the other scenarios where the lightest CP-even Higgs is interpreted as the LHC signal, we propose a low-MH scenario, where instead the heavy CP-even Higgs boson corresponds to the new state around 125.5 GeV.

  6. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; et al

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore » version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.« less

  7. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; Bleck, R.; Canuto, V.; Cheng, Y.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A. D.; Faluvegi, G.; Hansen, J. E.; Healy, R. J.; Kiang, N. Y.; Koch, D.; Lacis, A. A.; LeGrande, A. N.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K. K.; Menon, S.; Oinas, V.; Perlwitz, J.; Puma, M. J.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Sato, M.; Shindell, D. T.; Sun, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Unger, N.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yao, M. -S.; Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.

  8. Energy Flowchart Scenarios of Future U.S. Energy Use Incorporating Hydrogen Fueled Vehicles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Berry, G; Daily III, W

    2004-06-03

    This project has adapted LLNL energy flowcharts of historical U.S. energy use drawn from the DOE Energy Information Administration (EIA) data to include scenarios involving hydrogen use. A flexible automated process for preparing and drawing these flowcharts has also been developed. These charts show the flows of energy between primary sectors of the economy so that a user can quickly understand the major implications of a proposed scenario. The software can rapidly generate a spectrum of U.S. energy use scenarios in the 2005-2050 timeframe, both with and without a transition to hydrogen-fueled transportation. These scenarios indicate that fueling 100% of the light duty fleet in 2050 (318 million 80 mpg-equivalent compressed hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) will require approximately 100 million tonnes (10.7 quads) of H2/year, reducing petroleum use by at least 7.3 million barrels of oil/day (15.5 quads/yr). Linear extrapolation of EIA's 2025 reference projection to 2050 indicates approximate U.S. primary energy use of 180 quads/yr (in 2050) relative to current use of 97 quads/yr (comprising 39 quads/yr of petroleum). Full deployment of 50% efficient electricity generation technologies for coal and nuclear power and improvements in gasoline lightduty vehicle fleet fuel economy to 50 mpg would reduce projected U.S. primary energy consumption to 143 quads/yr in 2050, comprising 58 quads/yr (27 million bbl/day) of petroleum. Full deployment of H2 automobiles by 2050 could further reduce U.S. petroleum dependence to 43 quads/yr. These projections indicate that substantial steps beyond a transition to H2 light-duty vehicles will be necessary to reduce future U.S. petroleum dependence (and related greenhouse gases) below present levels. A flowchart projecting future U.S. energy flows depicting a complete transition by 2050 to compressed hydrogen light-duty vehicles is attached on the following page (corresponding to scenario 7 in the Appendix). It indicates that producing 100 billion kilograms of hydrogen fuel annually (10.7 quads/yr) from a balanced blend of primary energy sources will likely require 16.2 quads of primary energy input, with an additional 0.96 Quads of electricity for hydrogen storage. These energy flows are comparable to or smaller than projected growth in individual primary energy sources over the 2005-2050 timeframe except perhaps the case of windpower.

  9. Preliminary identification of potentially disruptive scenarios at the Greater Confinement Disposal Facility, Area 5 of the Nevada Test Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Guzowski, R.V.; Newman, G.

    1993-12-01

    The Greater Confinement Disposal location is being evaluated to determine whether defense-generated transuranic waste buried at this location complies with the Containment Requirements established by the US Environmental Protection Agency. One step in determining compliance is to identify those combinations of events and processes (scenarios) that define possible future states of the disposal system for which performance assessments must be performed. An established scenario-development procedure was used to identify a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios. To assure completeness, 761 features, events, processes, and other listings (FEPS) were compiled from 11 references. This number was reduced to 205 primarily through the elimination of duplications. The 205 FEPs were screened based on site-specific, goal-specific, and regulatory criteria. Four events survived screening and were used in preliminary scenario development: (1) exploratory drilling penetrates a GCD borehole, (2) drilling of a withdrawal/injection well penetrates a GCD borehole, (3) subsidence occurs at the RWMS, and (4) irrigation occurs at the RWMS. A logic diagram was used to develop 16 scenarios from the four events. No screening of these scenarios was attempted at this time. Additional screening of the currently retained events and processes will be based on additional data and information from site-characterization activities. When screening of the events and processes is completed, a final set of scenarios will be developed and screened based on consequence and probability of occurrence.

  10. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O'Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes), changes in climate and related environmental conditions (e.g., sea level), and evolution of societal capability to respond to climate change. This wide range of scenarios is needed because the implications of climate change for the environment and society depend not only on changes in climate themselves, but also on human responses. This degree of breadth introduces and number of challenges for communication and research.

  11. Variability of Power from Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios in the State of Gujarat: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parsons, B.; Hummon, M.; Cochran, J.; Stoltenberg, B.; Batra, P.; Mehta, B.; Patel, D.

    2014-04-01

    India has ambitious goals for high utilization of variable renewable power from wind and solar, and deployment has been proceeding at a rapid pace. The western state of Gujarat currently has the largest amount of solar generation of any Indian state, with over 855 Megawatts direct current (MWDC). Combined with over 3,240 MW of wind, variable generation renewables comprise nearly 18% of the electric-generating capacity in the state. A new historic 10-kilometer (km) gridded solar radiation data set capturing hourly insolation values for 2002-2011 is available for India. We apply an established method for downscaling hourly irradiance data to one-minute irradiance data at potential PV power production locations for one year, 2006. The objective of this report is to characterize the intra-hour variability of existing and planned photovoltaic solar power generation in the state of Gujarat (a total of 1.9 gigawatts direct current (GWDC)), and of five possible expansion scenarios of solar generation that reflect a range of geographic diversity (each scenario totals 500-1,000 MW of additional solar capacity). The report statistically analyzes one year's worth of power variability data, applied to both the baseline and expansion scenarios, to evaluate diurnal and seasonal power fluctuations, different timescales of variability (e.g., from one to 15 minutes), the magnitude of variability (both total megawatts and relative to installed solar capacity), and the extent to which the variability can be anticipated in advance. The paper also examines how Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) and the Gujarat State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) could make use of the solar variability profiles in grid operations and planning.

  12. Final report: Task 4a.2 20% wind scenario assessment of electric grid operational features

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Toole, Gasper L.

    2009-01-01

    Wind integration modeling in electricity generation capacity expansion models is important in that these models are often used to inform political or managerial decisions. Poor representation of wind technology leads to under-estimation of wind's contribution to future energy scenarios which may hamper growth of the industry. The NREL's Wind Energy Deployment System (WinDS) model provides the most detailed representation of geographically disperse renewable resources and the optimization of transmission expansion to access these resources. Because WinDS was selected as the primary modeling tool for the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 study, it is the ideal tool for supplemental studies of the transmission expansion results. However, as the wind industry grows and knowledge related to the wind resource and integration of wind energy into the electric system develops, the WinDS model must be continually improved through additional data and innovative algorithms to capture the primary effects of variable wind generation. The detailed representation of wind technology in the WinDS model can be used to provide improvements to the simplified representation of wind technology in other capacity expansion models. This task did not employ the WinDS model, but builds from it and its results. Task 4a.2 provides an assessment of the electric grid operational features of the 20% Wind scenario and was conducted using power flow models accepted by the utility industry. Tasks 2 provides information regarding the physical flow of electricity on the electric grid which is a critical aspect of infrastructure expansion scenarios. Expanding transmission infrastructure to access remote wind resource in a physically realizable way is essential to achieving 20% wind energy by 2030.

  13. Variability of Power from Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios in the State of Gujarat (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parsons, B.; Hummon, M.; Cochran, J.; Stoltenberg, B.; Batra, P.; Mehta, B.; Patel, D.

    2014-04-01

    India has ambitious goals for high utilization of variable renewable power from wind and solar, and deployment has been proceeding at a rapid pace. The western state of Gujarat currently has the largest amount of solar generation of any Indian state, with over 855 Megawatts direct current (MWDC). Combined with over 3,240 MW of wind, variable generation renewables comprise nearly 18% of the electric-generating capacity in the state. A new historic 10-kilometer (km) gridded solar radiation data set capturing hourly insolation values for 2002-2011 is available for India. We apply an established method for downscaling hourly irradiance data to one-minute irradiance data at potential PV power production locations for one year, 2006. The objective of this report is to characterize the intra-hour variability of existing and planned photovoltaic solar power generation in the state of Gujarat (a total of 1.9 gigawatts direct current (GWDC)), and of five possible expansion scenarios of solar generation that reflect a range of geographic diversity (each scenario totals 500-1,000 MW of additional solar capacity). The report statistically analyzes one year's worth of power variability data, applied to both the baseline and expansion scenarios, to evaluate diurnal and seasonal power fluctuations, different timescales of variability (e.g., from one to 15 minutes), the magnitude of variability (both total megawatts and relative to installed solar capacity), and the extent to which the variability can be anticipated in advance. The paper also examines how Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) and the Gujarat State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) could make use of the solar variability profiles in grid operations and planning.

  14. Subsea innovative boosting technologies on deep water scenarios -- Impacts and demands

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Caetano, E.F.; Mendonca, J.E.; Pagot, P.R.; Cotrim, M.L.; Camargo, R.M.T.; Assayag, M.I.

    1995-12-31

    This paper presents the importance of deep water scenario for Brazil, the PETROBRAS Deep and Ultra-Deep Water R and D Program (PROCAP-2000) and the candidate fields for the deployment of subsea innovative boosting technologies (ESPS -- electrical submersible pump in subsea wells, SSS -- subsea separation systems and SBMS -- subsea multiphase flow pumping system) as well as the problems associated with the flow assurance in such conditions. The impact of those innovative systems, their technological stage and remaining demands to make them available for deployment in offshore subsea areas, mainly in giant deepwater fields, are discussed and predicted.

  15. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) (Presentation), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) Marc Melaina, Ph.D. Team Lead for Infrastructure Analysis Transportation and Hydrogen Systems Center, NREL H2FAST Team: Brian Bush, Melanie Caton, Jon Duckworth, Dan Getman, Sara Havig, Marc Melaina, Michael Penev HTAC Meeting - April 21-22, 2015 Arlington, Virginia NREL/PR-5400-64138 Overview * Hydrogen Financial Analysis Simulation Tool (H2FAST) * H2FAST is a standard financial accounting framework applied to the DOE's H2A cost analysis models * There

  16. Prototype Development Capabilities of 3D Spatial Interactions and Failures During Scenario Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steven Prescott; Ramprasad Sampath; Curtis Smith; Tony Koonce

    2014-09-01

    Computers have been used for 3D modeling and simulation, but only recently have computational resources been able to give realistic results in a reasonable time frame for large complex models. This report addressed the methods, techniques, and resources used to develop a prototype for using 3D modeling and simulation engine to improve risk analysis and evaluate reactor structures and components for a given scenario. The simulations done for this evaluation were focused on external events, specifically tsunami floods, for a hypothetical nuclear power facility on a coastline.

  17. The high-β{sub N} hybrid scenario for ITER and FNSF steady-state missions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turco, F.; Petty, C. C.; Luce, T. C.; Carlstrom, T. N.; Van Zeeland, M. A.; Ferron, J. R.; Heidbrink, W.; Carpanese, F.; Holcomb, C. T.

    2015-05-15

    New experiments on DIII-D have demonstrated the steady-state potential of the hybrid scenario, with 1 MA of plasma current driven fully non-inductively and β{sub N} up to 3.7 sustained for ∼3 s (∼1.5 current diffusion time, τ{sub R}, in DIII-D), providing the basis for an attractive option for steady-state operation in ITER and FNSF. Excellent confinement is achieved (H{sub 98y2} ∼ 1.6) without performance limiting tearing modes. The hybrid regime overcomes the need for off-axis current drive efficiency, taking advantage of poloidal magnetic flux pumping that is believed to be the result of a saturated 3/2 tearing mode. This allows for efficient current drive close to the axis, without deleterious sawtooth instabilities. In these experiments, the edge surface loop voltage is driven down to zero for >1 τ{sub R} when the poloidal β is increased above 1.9 at a plasma current of 1.0 MA and the ECH power is increased to 3.2 MW. Stationary operation of hybrid plasmas with all on-axis current drive is sustained at pressures slightly above the ideal no-wall limit, while the calculated ideal with-wall MHD limit is β{sub N} ∼ 4–4.5. Off-axis Neutral Beam Injection (NBI) power has been used to broaden the pressure and current profiles in this scenario, seeking to take advantage of higher predicted kink stability limits and lower values of the tearing stability index Δ′, as calculated by the DCON and PEST3 codes. Results based on measured profiles predict ideal limits at β{sub N} > 4.5, 10% higher than the cases with on-axis NBI. A 0-D model, based on the present confinement, β{sub N} and shape values of the DIII-D hybrid scenario, shows that these plasmas are consistent with the ITER 9 MA, Q = 5 mission and the FNSF 6.7 MA scenario with Q = 3.5. With collisionality and edge safety factor values comparable to those envisioned for ITER and FNSF, the high-β{sub N} hybrid represents an attractive high performance option for the steady-state missions of these devices.

  18. Refined scenario of standard Big Bang nucleosynthesis allowing for nonthermal nuclear reactions in the primordial plasma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voronchev, Victor T.; Nakao, Yasuyuki; Nakamura, Makoto; Tsukida, Kazuki [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow State University, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation); Department of Applied Quantum Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Kyushu University, Motooka, Fukuoka 819-0395 (Japan); Division of Advanced Plasma Research, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-166 Oaza-Obuchi-Aza-Omotedate, Rokkasho, Kamikita, Aomori 039-3212 (Japan); Department of Applied Quantum Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Kyushu University, Motooka, Fukuoka 819-0395 (Japan)

    2012-11-12

    The standard scenario of big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is generalized to take into account nonthermal nuclear reactions in the primordial plasma. These reactions are naturally triggered in the BBN epoch by fast particles generated in various exoergic processes. It is found that, although such particles can appreciably enhance the rates of some individual reactions, their influence on the whole process of element production is not significant. The nonthermal corrections to element abundances are obtained to be 0.1% ({sup 3}H), -0.03% ({sup 7}Li), and 0.34 %-0.63% (CNO group).

  19. Experimental Design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arnott, James

    2015-10-30

    The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Experimental design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios,” on August 3-8, 2014 in Aspen, CO. Claudia Tebaldi (NCAR) and Brian O’Neill (NCAR) served as co-chairs for the workshop. The Organizing committee also included Dave Lawrence (NCAR), Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR), George Hurtt (University of Maryland), & Detlef van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environmental Change). The meeting included the participation of 22 scientists representing many of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 110 participant days.

  20. 3.55 keV line in minimal decaying dark matter scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arcadi, Giorgio; Covi, Laura; Dradi, Federico

    2015-07-20

    We investigate the possibility of reproducing the recently reported 3.55 keV line in some simple decaying dark matter scenarios. In all cases a keV scale decaying DM is coupled with a scalar field charged under SM gauge interactions and thus capable of pair production at the LHC. We will investigate how the demand of a DM lifetime compatible with the observed signal, combined with the requirement of the correct DM relic density through the freeze-in mechanism, impacts the prospects of observation at the LHC of the decays of the scalar field.

  1. A Method for Evaluating Fire after Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    DOE/NNSA LANS Company Sensitive - unauthorized release or dissemination prohibited U N C L A S S I F I E D A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings Elizabeth J. Kelly and Raymond N. Tell, LANL U.S. Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Workshop Washington, D.C October 25-26, 2011 LA-UR 11-06032 Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D Slide 2 Conservative or Beyond? While conservative assumptions may make an

  2. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST). Web Tool User's Manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bush, B.; Penev, M.; Melaina, M.; Zuboy, J.

    2015-05-11

    The Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) provides a quick and convenient indepth financial analysis for hydrogen fueling stations. This manual describes how to use the H2FAST web tool, which is one of three H2FAST formats developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Although all of the formats are based on the same financial computations and conform to generally accepted accounting principles (FASAB 2014, Investopedia 2014), each format provides a different level of complexity and user interactivity.

  3. The Reality and Future Scenarios of Commercial Building Energy Consumption in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Nan; Lin, Jiang

    2007-08-01

    While China's 11th Five Year Plan called for a reduction of energy intensity by 2010, whether and how the energy consumption trend can be changed in a short time has been hotly debated. This research intends to evaluate the impact of a variety of scenarios of GDP growth, energy elasticity and energy efficiency improvement on energy consumption in commercial buildings in China using a detailed China End-use Energy Model. China's official energy statistics have limited information on energy demand by end use. This is a particularly pertinent issue for building energy consumption. The authors have applied reasoned judgments, based on experience of working on Chinese efficiency standards and energy related programs, to present a realistic interpretation of the current energy data. The bottom-up approach allows detailed consideration of end use intensity, equipment efficiency, etc., thus facilitating assessment of potential impacts of specific policy and technology changes on building energy use. The results suggest that: (1) commercial energy consumption in China's current statistics is underestimated by about 44%, and the fuel mix is misleading; (2) energy efficiency improvements will not be sufficient to offset the strong increase in end-use penetration and intensity in commercial buildings; (3) energy intensity (particularly electricity) in commercial buildings will increase; (4) different GDP growth and elasticity scenarios could lead to a wide range of floor area growth trajectories , and therefore, significantly impact energy consumption in commercial buildings.

  4. The anti-glitch of magnetar 1E 2259+586 in the wind braking scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tong, H.

    2014-04-01

    The anti-glitch of magnetar 1E 2259+586 is analyzed theoretically. An enhanced particle wind during the observational interval takes away additional rotational energy of the neutron star, which will result in a net spin-down of the magnetar, i.e., an anti-glitch. In the wind braking scenario of the anti-glitch, there are several predictions: (1) a radiative event will always accompany the anti-glitch, (2) there will be a decrease/variation of the braking index after the anti-glitch, and (3) the anti-glitch is just a period of enhanced spin-down. If there are enough timing observations, a period of enhanced spin-down is expected instead of an anti-glitch. Applications to previous timing events of SGR 1900+14 and PSR J1846–0258 are also included. It is shown that current timing events of 1E 2259+586, SGR 1900+14, and PSR J1846–0258 can be understood safely in the wind braking model. The enhanced spin-down and absence of an anti-glitch before the giant flare of SGR 1806–20 is consistent with the wind braking scenario.

  5. Progress in preparing scenarios for operation of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sips, A. C. C.; Giruzzi, G.; Ide, S.; Kessel, C.; Luce, T. C.; Snipes, J. A.; Stober, J. K.

    2015-02-15

    The development of operating scenarios is one of the key issues in the research for ITER which aims to achieve a fusion gain (Q) of ∼10, while producing 500 MW of fusion power for ≥300 s. The ITER Research plan proposes a success oriented schedule starting in hydrogen and helium, to be followed by a nuclear operation phase with a rapid development towards Q ∼ 10 in deuterium/tritium. The Integrated Operation Scenarios Topical Group of the International Tokamak Physics Activity initiates joint activities among worldwide institutions and experiments to prepare ITER operation. Plasma formation studies report robust plasma breakdown in devices with metal walls over a wide range of conditions, while other experiments use an inclined EC launch angle at plasma formation to mimic the conditions in ITER. Simulations of the plasma burn-through predict that at least 4 MW of Electron Cyclotron heating (EC) assist would be required in ITER. For H-modes at q{sub 95} ∼ 3, many experiments have demonstrated operation with scaled parameters for the ITER baseline scenario at n{sub e}/n{sub GW} ∼ 0.85. Most experiments, however, obtain stable discharges at H{sub 98(y,2)} ∼ 1.0 only for β{sub N} = 2.0–2.2. For the rampup in ITER, early X-point formation is recommended, allowing auxiliary heating to reduce the flux consumption. A range of plasma inductance (l{sub i}(3)) can be obtained from 0.65 to 1.0, with the lowest values obtained in H-mode operation. For the rampdown, the plasma should stay diverted maintaining H-mode together with a reduction of the elongation from 1.85 to 1.4. Simulations show that the proposed rampup and rampdown schemes developed since 2007 are compatible with the present ITER design for the poloidal field coils. At 13–15 MA and densities down to n{sub e}/n{sub GW} ∼ 0.5, long pulse operation (>1000 s) in ITER is possible at Q ∼ 5, useful to provide neutron fluence for Test Blanket Module assessments. ITER scenario preparation in hydrogen and helium requires high input power (>50 MW). H-mode operation in helium may be possible at input powers above 35 MW at a toroidal field of 2.65 T, for studying H-modes and ELM mitigation. In hydrogen, H-mode operation is expected to be marginal, even at 2.65 T with 60 MW of input power. Simulation code benchmark studies using hybrid and steady state scenario parameters have proved to be a very challenging and lengthy task of testing suites of codes, consisting of tens of sophisticated modules. Nevertheless, the general basis of the modelling appears sound, with substantial consistency among codes developed by different groups. For a hybrid scenario at 12 MA, the code simulations give a range for Q = 6.5–8.3, using 30 MW neutral beam injection and 20 MW ICRH. For non-inductive operation at 7–9 MA, the simulation results show more variation. At high edge pedestal pressure (T{sub ped} ∼ 7 keV), the codes predict Q = 3.3–3.8 using 33 MW NB, 20 MW EC, and 20 MW ion cyclotron to demonstrate the feasibility of steady-state operation with the day-1 heating systems in ITER. Simulations using a lower edge pedestal temperature (∼3 keV) but improved core confinement obtain Q = 5–6.5, when ECCD is concentrated at mid-radius and ∼20 MW off-axis current drive (ECCD or LHCD) is added. Several issues remain to be studied, including plasmas with dominant electron heating, mitigation of transient heat loads integrated in scenario demonstrations and (burn) control simulations in ITER scenarios.

  6. Viability of the matter bounce scenario in Loop Quantum Cosmology from BICEP2 last data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Haro, Jaume; Amorós, Jaume E-mail: jaume.amoros@upc.edu

    2014-08-01

    The CMB map provided by the Planck project constrains the value of the ratio of tensor-to-scalar perturbations, namely r, to be smaller than 0.11 (95 % CL). This bound rules out the simplest models of inflation. However, recent data from BICEP2 is in strong tension with this constrain, as it finds a value r=0.20{sup +0.07}{sub -0.05} with 0r= disfavored at 7.0 σ, which allows these simplest inflationary models to survive. The remarkable fact is that, even though the BICEP2 experiment was conceived to search for evidence of inflation, its experimental data matches correctly theoretical results coming from the matter bounce scenario (the alternative model to the inflationary paradigm). More precisely, most bouncing cosmologies do not pass Planck's constrains due to the smallness of the value of the tensor/scalar ratio r≤ 0.11, but with new BICEP2 data some of them fit well with experimental data. This is the case with the matter bounce scenario in the teleparallel version of Loop Quantum Cosmology.

  7. Progress in preparing scenarios for operation of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sips, A. C. C.; European Commission, Brussels; Giruzzi, G.; Ide, S.; Kessel, C.; Luce, T. C.; Snipes, J. A.; Stober, J. K.

    2015-02-01

    The development of operating scenarios is one of the key issues in the research for ITER which aims to achieve a fusion gain (Q) of ~10, while producing 500MW of fusion power for ≥300 s. The ITER Research plan proposes a success oriented schedule starting in hydrogen and helium, to be followed by a nuclear operation phase with a rapid development towards Q ~ 10 in deuterium/tritium. The Integrated Operation Scenarios Topical Group of the International Tokamak Physics Activity initiates joint activities among worldwide institutions and experiments to prepare ITER operation. Plasma formation studies report robust plasma breakdown in devices with metal walls over a wide range of conditions, while other experiments use an inclined EC launch angle at plasma formation to mimic the conditions in ITER. Simulations of the plasma burn-through predict that at least 4MW of Electron Cyclotron heating (EC) assist would be required in ITER. For H-modes at q₉₅~ 3, many experiments have demonstrated operation with scaled parameters for the ITER baseline scenario at ne/nGW ~ 0.85. Most experiments, however, obtain stable discharges at H₉₈(y,2) ~ 1.0 only for bN = 2.0–2.2. For the rampup in ITER, early X-point formation is recommended, allowing auxiliary heating to reduce the flux consumption. A range of plasma inductance (li(3)) can be obtained from 0.65 to 1.0, with the lowest values obtained in H-mode operation. For the rampdown, the plasma should stay diverted maintaining H-mode together with a reduction of the elongation from 1.85 to 1.4. Simulations show that the proposed rampup and rampdown schemes developed since 2007 are compatible with the present ITER design for the poloidal field coils. At 13–15 MA and densities down to ne/nGW ~ 0.5, long pulse operation (>1000 s) in ITER is possible at Q ~ 5, useful to provide neutron fluence for Test Blanket Module assessments. ITER scenario preparation in hydrogen and helium requires high input power (>50 MW). H-mode operation in helium may be possible at input powers above 35MW at a toroidal field of 2.65T, for studying H-modes and ELM mitigation. In hydrogen, H-mode operation is expected to be marginal, even at 2.65T with 60MW of input power. Simulation code benchmark studies using hybrid and steady state scenario parameters have proved to be a very challenging and lengthy task of testing suites of codes, consisting of tens of sophisticated modules. Nevertheless, the general basis of the modelling appears sound, with substantial consistency among codes developed by different groups. For a hybrid scenario at 12 MA, the code simulations give a range for Q = 6.5–8.3, using 30MW neutral beam injection and 20MW ICRH. For non-inductive operation at 7–9 MA, the simulation results show more variation. At high edge pedestal pressure (Tped ~ 7 keV), the codes predict Q = 3.3–3.8 using 33MW NB, 20MW EC, and 20MW ion cyclotron to demonstrate the feasibility of steady-state operation with the day-1 heating systems in ITER. Simulations using a lower edge pedestal temperature (~3 keV) but improved core confinement obtain Q = 5–6.5, when ECCD is concentrated at mid-radius and ~ 20MW off-axis current drive (ECCD or LHCD) is added. Several issues remain to be studied, including plasmas with dominant electron heating, mitigation of transient heat loads integrated in scenario demonstrations and (burn) control simulations in ITER scenarios.

  8. Biomass Scenario Model: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bush, B.

    2015-03-23

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art fourth-generation model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, behavior, policy, and physical, technological, and economic constraints. The BSM uses system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It places a strong emphasis on the behavior and decision-making of various economic agents. The model treats the major infrastructure-compatible fuels. Scenario analysis based on the BSM shows that the biofuels industry tends not to rapidly thrive without significant external actions in the early years of its evolution. An initial focus for jumpstarting the industry typically has strongest results in the BSM in areas where effects of intervention have been identified to be multiplicative. In general, we find that policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain have significant impact in fostering the growth of the biofuels industry and that the production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.

  9. Implementation Scenarios for Electric Vehicle Roadway Wireless Power Transfer; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meintz, A.; Markel, T.; Burton, E.; Wang, L.; Gonder, J.; Brooker, A.

    2015-06-05

    Analysis has been performed on the Transportation Secure Data Center (TSDC) warehouse of collected GPS second-by-second driving profile data of vehicles in the Atlanta, Chicago, Fresno, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Sacramento, and San Francisco Consolidated Statistical Areas (CSAs) to understand in-motion wireless power transfer introduction scenarios. In this work it has been shown that electrification of 1% of road miles could reduce fuel use by 25% for Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) in these CSAs. This analysis of strategically located infrastructure offers a promising approach to reduced fuel consumption; however, even the most promising 1% of road miles determined by these seven analysis scenarios still represent an impressive 2,700 miles of roadway to electrify. Therefore to mitigate the infrastructure capital costs, integration of the grid-tied power electronics in the Wireless Power Transfer (WPT) system at the DC-link to photovoltaic and/or battery storage is suggested. The integration of these resources would allow for the hardware to provide additional revenue through grid services at times of low traffic volumes and conversely at time of high traffic volumes these resources could reduce the peak demand that the WPT system would otherwise add to the grid.

  10. Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Thermal Mass in California

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yin, Rongxin; Kiliccote, Sila; Piette, Mary Ann; Parrish, Kristen

    2010-05-14

    This paper reports on the potential impact of demand response (DR) strategies in commercial buildings in California based on the Demand Response Quick Assessment Tool (DRQAT), which uses EnergyPlus simulation prototypes for office and retail buildings. The study describes the potential impact of building size, thermal mass, climate, and DR strategies on demand savings in commercial buildings. Sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate how these factors influence the demand shift and shed during the peak period. The whole-building peak demand of a commercial building with high thermal mass in a hot climate zone can be reduced by 30percent using an optimized demand response strategy. Results are summarized for various simulation scenarios designed to help owners and managers understand the potential savings for demand response deployment. Simulated demand savings under various scenarios were compared to field-measured data in numerous climate zones, allowing calibration of the prototype models. The simulation results are compared to the peak demand data from the Commercial End-Use Survey for commercial buildings in California. On the economic side, a set of electricity rates are used to evaluate the impact of the DR strategies on economic savings for different thermal mass and climate conditions. Our comparison of recent simulation to field test results provides an understanding of the DR potential in commercial buildings.

  11. Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Escudero, L.F.; Garcia, C.; Fuente, J.L. de la; Prieto, F.J.

    1996-05-01

    The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power management problems with uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. The authors describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model data for medium and long-term planning problems. Their approach results in a huge model with a network submodel per scenario plus coupling constraints. The size of the problem and the structure of the constraints are adequate for the use of decomposition techniques and parallel computation tools. The authors present computational results for both sequential and parallel implementation versions of the codes, running on a cluster of workstations. The codes have been tested on data obtained from the reservoir network of Iberdrola, a power utility owning 50% of the total installed hydroelectric capacity of Spain, and generating 40% of the total energy demand.

  12. Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Escudero, L.F.; Garcia, C.; Fuente, J.L. de la; Prieto, F.J.

    1995-12-31

    The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power management problems and uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. The authors describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model data for medium and long-term planning problems. This approach results in a huge model with a network submodel per scenario plus coupling constraints. The size of the problem and the structure of the constraints are adequate for the use of decomposition techniques and parallel computation tools. The authors present computational results for both sequential and parallel implementation versions of the codes, running on a cluster of workstations. The code have been tested on data obtained from the reservoir network of Iberdrola, a power utility owning 50% of the total installed hydroelectric capacity of Spain, and generating 40% of the total energy demand.

  13. High-energy neutrino signals from the Sun in dark matter scenarios with internal bremsstrahlung

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ibarra, Alejandro; Totzauer, Maximilian; Wild, Sebastian E-mail: maximilian.totzauer@mytum.de

    2013-12-01

    We investigate the prospects to observe a high energy neutrino signal from dark matter annihilations in the Sun in scenarios where the dark matter is a Majorana fermion that couples to a quark and a colored scalar via a Yukawa coupling. In this minimal scenario, the dark matter capture and annihilation in the Sun can be studied in a single framework. We find that, for small and moderate mass splitting between the dark matter and the colored scalar, the two-to-three annihilation q q-bar g plays a central role in the calculation of the number of captured dark matter particles. On the other hand, the two-to-three annihilation into q q-bar Z gives, despite its small branching fraction, the largest contribution to the neutrino flux at the Earth at the highest energies. We calculate the limits on the model parameters using IceCube observations of the Sun and we discuss their interplay with the requirement of equilibrium of captures and annihilations in the Sun and with the requirement of thermal dark matter production. We also compare the limits from IceCube to the limits from direct detection, antiproton measurements and collider searches.

  14. Non-Kyoto Radiative Forcing in Long-Run Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rose, Steven K.; Richels, Richard G.; Smith, Steven J.; Riahi, Keywan; Stefler, Jessica; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-27

    Climate policies designed to achieve climate change objectives must consider radiative forcing from the Kyoto greenhouse gas, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone. Net positive forcing leads to global average temperature increases. Modeling of non-Kyoto forcing is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. Five of the nineteen models in the EMF-27 Study model both Kyoto and non-Kyoto forcing. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within these integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking significant positive forcing in reference non-climate policy projections. There are however large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing, with differences stemming from differences in relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions and fundamental differences in modeling structure and assumptions. Air pollution and non-Kyoto forcing decline in the climate policy scenarios. However, non-Kyoto forcing appears to be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited. Overall, there is substantial uncertainty related to non-Kyoto forcing that must be considered.

  15. Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang,Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

    2005-09-19

    While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.

  16. Modeling Sensitivities to the 20% Wind Scenario Report with the WinDS Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blair, N.; Hand, M.; Short, W.; Sullivan, P.

    2008-06-01

    In May 2008, DOE published '20% Wind Energy by 2030', a report which describes the costs and benefits of producing 20% of the nation's projected electricity demand in 2030 from wind technology. The total electricity system cost resulting from this scenario was modestly higher than a scenario in which no additional wind was installed after 2006. NREL's Wind Deployment System (WinDS) model was used to support this analysis. With its 358 regions, explicit treatment of transmission expansion, onshore siting considerations, shallow- and deep-water wind resources, 2030 outlook, explicit financing assumptions, endogenous learning, and stochastic treatment of wind resource variability, WinDS is unique in the level of detail it can bring to this analysis. For the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 analysis, the group chose various model structures (such as the ability to wheel power within an interconnect), and the wind industry agreed on a variety of model inputs (such as the cost of transmission or new wind turbines). For this paper, the analysis examined the sensitivity of the results to variations in those input values and model structure choices. These included wind cost and performance improvements over time, seasonal/diurnal wind resource variations, transmission access and costs, siting costs, conventional fuel cost trajectories, and conventional capital costs.

  17. Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Neumeyer, Charles; Goldston, Robert

    2016-04-28

    Abstract: The Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform anmore » EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.« less

  18. Regional socioeconomic impacts of alternative energy scenarios for the Ohio River Basin Energy Study region

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, S.I.; Graham, A.S.

    1980-10-01

    The report was prepared as part of the Ohio River Basin Energy Study (ORBES), a multidisciplinary policy research program. It describes projected socioeconomic impacts of the ORBES energy futures, defined as scenarios, on the region. The region consists of all of Kentucky, most of West Virginia, and substantial portions of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The major impact areas considered are employment impacts of coal-fired power plants and of coal mining; population impacts of coal-fired power plants and coal mining; and public service impacts (e.g., water and sewer systems). The analyses of power plant impacts was aided by use of the ORBES Labor Impact Model (OLIM), which projects total county employment over time by scenario. For coal-mining employment impacts, a set of employment multipliers was developed using existing data to enable county- and regional-level employment changes. The mining employment data also are used in conjunction with other forecasts to look at general migration trends within the study region.

  19. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    FUELS Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FUTURES SERIES: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios A Study Sponsored by U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy April 2013 Prepared by NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY Golden, Colorado 80401-3305 managed by

  20. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the leak from a railcar/tank trailer at the 204-ar waste unloading facility

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-19

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Leak from Railcar/Tank Trailer. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  1. Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL

    2009-12-03

    Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

  2. Quantification of the Potential Gross Economic Impacts of Five Methane Reduction Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keyser, David; Warner, Ethan; Curley, Christina

    2015-04-23

    Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas that is released from the natural gas supply chain into the atmosphere as a result of fugitive emissions1 and venting2 . We assess five potential CH4 reduction scenarios from transmission, storage, and distribution (TS&D) using published literature on the costs and the estimated quantity of CH4 reduced. We utilize cost and methane inventory data from ICF (2014) and Warner et al. (forthcoming) as well as data from Barrett and McCulloch (2014) and the American Gas Association (AGA) (2013) to estimate that the implementation of these measures could support approximately 85,000 jobs annually from 2015 to 2019 and reduce CH4 emissions from natural gas TS&D by over 40%. Based on standard input/output analysis methodology, measures are estimated to support over $8 billion in GDP annually over the same time period and allow producers to recover approximately $912 million annually in captured gas.

  3. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for a Chicago nuclear detonation scenario.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2011-09-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. Extensive studies have been performed and guidance published that highlight the key principles for saving lives following such an event. However, region-specific data are important in the planning process as well. This study examines some of the unique regional factors that impact planning for a 10 kt detonation in Chicago. The work utilizes a single scenario to examine regional impacts as well as the shelter-evacuate decision alternatives at selected exemplary points. For many Chicago neighborhoods, the excellent assessed shelter quality available make shelter-in-place or selective transit to a nearby shelter a compelling post-detonation strategy.

  4. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for a national capital region nuclear detonation scenario.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2011-12-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. Extensive studies have been performed and guidance published that highlight the key principles for saving lives following such an event. However, region-specific data are important in the planning process as well. This study examines some of the unique regional factors that impact planning for a 10 kT detonation in the National Capital Region. The work utilizes a single scenario to examine regional impacts as well as the shelter-evacuate decision alternatives at one exemplary point. For most Washington, DC neighborhoods, the excellent assessed shelter quality available make shelter-in-place or selective transit to a nearby shelter a compelling post-detonation strategy.

  5. Failure Scenarios and Mitigations and for the BaBar Superconducting Solenoid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thompson, EunJoo; Candia, A.; Craddock, W.W.; Racine, M.; Weisend, J.G., II; /SLAC

    2005-12-13

    The cryogenic department at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center is responsible for the operation, troubleshooting, and upgrade of the 1.5 Tesla superconducting solenoid detector for the BABAR B-factory experiment. Events that disable the detector are rare but significantly impact the availability of the detector for physics research. As a result, a number of systems and procedures have been developed over time to minimize the downtime of the detector, for example improved control systems, improved and automatic backup systems, and spares for all major components. Together they can prevent or mitigate many of the failures experienced by the utilities, mechanical systems, controls and instrumentation. In this paper we describe various failure scenarios, their effect on the detector, and the modifications made to mitigate the effects of the failure. As a result of these modifications the reliability of the detector has increased significantly with only 3 shutdowns of the detector due to cryogenics systems over the last 2 years.

  6. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for an urban nuclear detonation scenario.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2009-05-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario in Los Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urban response plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robust protection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and the fallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time can substantially reduce the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristics of the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analyses indicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experience significant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.

  7. Quantification of the Potential Gross Economic Impacts of Five Methane Reduction Scenarios

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This study assessed five potential methane reduction scenarios from natural gas transmission, storage, and distribution (TS&D) infrastructure using published literature on the costs and the estimated quantity of methane reduced. The results show that implementation of these five measures could support approximately 85,000 jobs annually from 2015 to 2019 and reduce CH4 emissions from natural gas TS&D by over 40%. Based on standard input/output analysis methodology, measures are estimated to support over $8 billion in GDP annually over the same time period and allow producers to recover approximately $912 million annually in captured gas. Mitigation of methane emission reductions through repair, replacement and new technologies are found to support economic development and jobs. The study also found that a portfolio approach to infrastructure modernization may be appropriate to meaningfully improve safety, maintain or create high levels of employment, and significant losses of methane from across TS&D segments of natural gas systems.

  8. Fusion power production in International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor baseline H-mode scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rafiq, T.; Kritz, A. H.; Kessel, C. E.; Pankin, A. Y.

    2015-04-15

    Self-consistent simulations of 15 MA ITER H-mode DT scenarios, from ramp-up through flat-top, are carried out. Electron and ion temperatures, toroidal angular frequency, and currents are evolved, in simulations carried out using the predictive TRANSPort and integrated modeling code starting with initial profiles and equilibria obtained from tokamak simulation code studies. Studies are carried out examining the dependence and sensitivity of fusion power production on electron density, argon impurity concentration, choice of radio frequency heating, pedestal temperature without and with E × B flow shear effects included, and the degree of plasma rotation. The goal of these whole-device ITER simulations is to identify dependencies that might impact ITER fusion performance.

  9. Evaluating Renewable Portfolio Standards and Carbon Cap Scenarios in the U.S. Electric Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, Lori; Chapman, Caroline; Logan, Jeff; Sumner, Jenny; Short, Walter

    2010-05-01

    This report examines the impact of various renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and cap-and-trade policy options on the U.S. electricity sector, focusing mainly on renewable energy generation. The analysis uses the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model that simulates the least-cost expansion of electricity generation capacity and transmission in the United States to examine the impact of an emissions cap--similar to that proposed in the Waxman-Markey bill (H.R. 2454)--as well as lower and higher cap scenarios. It also examines the effects of combining various RPS targets with the emissions caps. The generation mix, carbon emissions, and electricity price are examined for various policy combinations to simulate the effect of implementing policies simultaneously.

  10. Potential effects of four Flaming Gorge Dam hydropower operational scenarios on the fishes of the Green River, Utah and Colorado

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hlohowskyj, I.; Hayse, J.W.

    1995-09-01

    Aerial videography and modeling were used to evaluate the impacts of four hydropower operational scenarios at Flaming Gorge Dam, Utah, on trout and native fishes in the Green River, Utah and Colorado. The four operational scenarios studied were year-round high fluctuations, seasonally adjusted high fluctuations, seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuations, and seasonally adjusted steady flows. Impacts on trout were evaluated by examining differences among scenarios in the areas of inundated substrates that serve as spawning and feeding habitat. All scenarios would provide at least 23 acres per mile of habitat for spawning and food production; seasonally adjusted operations would provide additional areas during periods of sustained high release. Seasonally adjusted high fluctuations would increase inundated areas by 12 to 26% for a short period in winter and spring, but food production and reproduction would not be expected to increase. Seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuations and steady flows would produce similar increases in area, but the longer period of inundation could also result in increased food production and provide additional spawning sites for trout. Impacts on native fishes were assessed by examining daily changes in backwater nursery areas. Compared with year-round high fluctuations, the daily changes in backwater area would decrease by about 47, 89, and 100% under the seasonally adjusted high fluctuation, moderate fluctuation, and steady flow scenarios, respectively. Similarly, daily stage fluctuations during the nursery period would decrease by 72, 89, and 100% under the seasonally adjusted high fluctuation, moderate fluctuation, and steady flow scenarios, respectively. These reductions in daily fluctuations in backwater area and stage would improve conditions in nursery habitats and could in turn improve recruitment and overwinter survival. Introduced fish species could also benefit from the seasonally adjusted operational scenarios.

  11. SHORT GAMMA-RAY BURSTS IN THE ''TIME-REVERSAL'' SCENARIO

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ciolfi, Riccardo; Siegel, Daniel M. E-mail: daniel.siegel@aei.mpg.de

    2015-01-10

    Short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) are among the most luminous explosions in the universe and their origin still remains uncertain. Observational evidence favors the association with binary neutron star or neutron star-black hole (NS-BH) binary mergers. Leading models relate SGRBs to a relativistic jet launched by the BH-torus system resulting from the merger. However, recent observations have revealed a large fraction of SGRB events accompanied by X-ray afterglows with durations ∼10{sup 2}-10{sup 5} s, suggesting continuous energy injection from a long-lived central engine, which is incompatible with the short (≲ 1 s) accretion timescale of a BH-torus system. The formation of a supramassive NS, resisting the collapse on much longer spin-down timescales, can explain these afterglow durations, but leaves serious doubts on whether a relativistic jet can be launched at the merger. Here we present a novel scenario accommodating both aspects, where the SGRB is produced after the collapse of a supramassive NS. Early differential rotation and subsequent spin-down emission generate an optically thick environment around the NS consisting of a photon-pair nebula and an outer shell of baryon-loaded ejecta. While the jet easily drills through this environment, spin-down radiation diffuses outward on much longer timescales and accumulates a delay that allows the SGRB to be observed before (part of) the long-lasting X-ray signal. By analyzing diffusion timescales for a wide range of physical parameters, we find delays that can generally reach ∼10{sup 5} s, compatible with observations. The success of this fundamental test makes this ''time-reversal'' scenario an attractive alternative to current SGRB models.

  12. Investment in different sized SMRs: Economic evaluation of stochastic scenarios by INCAS code

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barenghi, S.; Boarin, S.; Ricotti, M. E.

    2012-07-01

    Small Modular LWR concepts are being developed and proposed to investors worldwide. They capitalize on operating track record of GEN II LWR, while introducing innovative design enhancements allowed by smaller size and additional benefits from the higher degree of modularization and from deployment of multiple units on the same site. (i.e. 'Economy of Multiple' paradigm) Nevertheless Small Modular Reactors pay for a dis-economy of scale that represents a relevant penalty on a capital intensive investment. Investors in the nuclear power generation industry face a very high financial risk, due to high capital commitment and exceptionally long pay-back time. Investment risk arise from uncertainty that affects scenario conditions over such a long time horizon. Risk aversion is increased by current adverse conditions of financial markets and general economic downturn, as is the case nowadays. This work investigates both the investment profitability and risk of alternative investments in a single Large Reactor or in multiple SMR of different sizes drawing information from project's Internal Rate of Return stochastic distribution. multiple SMR deployment on a single site with total power installed, equivalent to a single LR. Uncertain scenario conditions and stochastic input assumptions are included in the analysis, representing investment uncertainty and risk. Results show that, despite the combination of much larger number of stochastic variables in SMR fleets, uncertainty of project profitability is not increased, as compared to LR: SMR have features able to smooth IRR variance and control investment risk. Despite dis-economy of scale, SMR represent a limited capital commitment and a scalable investment option that meet investors' interest, even in developed and mature markets, that are traditional marketplace for LR. (authors)

  13. Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gernaat, David; Calvin, Katherine V.; Lucas, Paul; Luderer, Gunnar; Otto, Sander; Rao, Shilpa; Strefler, Jessica; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-07-01

    The combined 2010 emissions of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the fluorinated gasses (F-gas) account for about 20-30% of total emissions and about 30% of radiative forcing. At the moment, most studies looking at reaching ambitious climate targets project the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) to be reduced to zero (or less) by the end of the century. As for non-CO2 gases, the mitigation potential seem to be more constrained, we find that by the end of the century in the current deep mitigation scenarios non-CO2 emissions could form the lion’s share of remaining greenhouse gas emissions. In order to support effective climate policy strategies, in this paper we provide a more in-depth look at the role of non-CO2¬ emission sources (CH4, N2O and F-gases) in achieving deep mitigation targets (radiative forcing target of 2.8 W/m2 in 2100). Specifically, we look at the sectorial mitigation potential and the remaining non-CO2 emissions. By including a set of different models, we provide some insights into the associated uncertainty. Most of the remaining methane emissions in 2100 in the climate mitigation scenario come from the livestock sector. Strong reductions are seen in the energy supply sector across all models. For N2O, less reduction potential is seen compared to methane and the sectoral differences are larger between the models. The paper shows that the assumptions on remaining non-CO2 emissions are critical for the feasibility of reaching ambitious climate targets and the associated costs.

  14. MSSM Higgs boson searches at the Tevatron and the LHC: Impact of different benchmark scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carena, Marcela S. [FNAL; Heinemeyer, S. [CERN; Wagner, C. E.M. [Argonne /Chicago U., EFI; Weiglein, G. [Durham U., IPPP

    2006-01-24

    The Higgs boson search has shifted from LEP2 to the Tevatron and will subsequently move to the LHC. The current limits from the Tevatron and the prospective sensitivities at the LHC are often interpreted in specific MSSM scenarios. For heavy Higgs boson production and subsequent decay into b{bar b} or {tau}{sup +}{tau}{sup -}, the present Tevatron data allow to set limits in the M{sub A}-tan {beta} plane for small M{sub A} and large tan {beta} values. Similar channels have been explored for the LHC, where the discovery reach extends to higher values of M{sub A} and smaller tan {beta}. Searches for MSSM charged Higgs bosons, produced in top decays or in association with top quarks, have also been investigated at the Tevatron and the LHC. We analyze the current Tevatron limits and prospective LHC sensitivities. We discuss how robust they are with respect to variations of the other MSSM parameters and possible improvements of the theoretical predictions for Higgs boson production and decay. It is shown that the inclusion of supersymmetric radiative corrections to the production cross sections and decay widths leads to important modifications of the present limits on the MSSM parameter space. The impact on the region where only the lightest MSSM Higgs boson can be detected at the LHC is also analyzed. We propose to extend the existing benchmark scenarios by including additional values of the higgsino mass parameter {mu}. This affects only slightly the search channels for a SM-like Higgs boson, while having a major impact on the searches for non-standard MSSM Higgs bosons.

  15. Magnetohydrodynamic modes analysis and control of Fusion Advanced Studies Torus high-current scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Villone, F.; Mastrostefano, S.; Calabrò, G.; Vlad, G.; Crisanti, F.; Fusco, V.; Marchiori, G.; Bolzonella, T.; Marrelli, L.; Martin, P.; Liu, Y. Q.

    2014-08-15

    One of the main FAST (Fusion Advanced Studies Torus) goals is to have a flexible experiment capable to test tools and scenarios for safe and reliable tokamak operation, in order to support ITER and help the final DEMO design. In particular, in this paper, we focus on operation close to a possible border of stability related to low-q operation. To this purpose, a new FAST scenario has then been designed at I{sub p} = 10 MA, B{sub T} = 8.5 T, q{sub 95} ≈ 2.3. Transport simulations, carried out by using the code JETTO and the first principle transport model GLF23, indicate that, under these conditions, FAST could achieve an equivalent Q ≈ 3.5. FAST will be equipped with a set of internal active coils for feedback control, which will produce magnetic perturbation with toroidal number n = 1 or n = 2. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mode analysis and feedback control simulations performed with the codes MARS, MARS-F, CarMa (both assuming the presence of a perfect conductive wall and using the exact 3D resistive wall structure) show the possibility of the FAST conductive structures to stabilize n = 1 ideal modes. This leaves therefore room for active mitigation of the resistive mode (down to a characteristic time of 1 ms) for safety purposes, i.e., to avoid dangerous MHD-driven plasma disruption, when working close to the machine limits and magnetic and kinetic energy density not far from reactor values.

  16. Spent Fuel Transportation Cask Response to the Caldecott Tunnel Fire Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Adkins, Harold E.; Koeppel, Brian J.; Cuta, Judith M.

    2007-01-01

    On April 7, 1982, a tank truck and trailer carrying 8,800 gallons of gasoline was involved in an accident in the Caldecott tunnel on State Route 24 near Oakland, California. The tank trailer overturned and subsequently caught fire. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), one of the agencies responsible for ensuring the safe transportation of radioactive materials in the United States, undertook analyses to determine the possible regulatory implications of this particular event for the transportation of spent nuclear fuel by truck. The Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) code developed by National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) was used to determine the thermal environment in the Caldecott tunnel during the fire. The FDS results were used to define boundary conditions for a thermal transient model of a truck transport cask containing spent nuclear fuel. The Nuclear Assurance Corporation (NAC) Legal Weight Truck (LWT) transportation cask was selected for this evaluation, as it represents a typical truck (over-the-road) cask, and can be used to transport a wide variety of spent nuclear fuels. Detailed analysis of the cask response to the fire was performed using the ANSYS computer code to evaluate the thermal performance of the cask design in this fire scenario. This report describes the methods and approach used to assess the thermal response of the selected cask design to the conditions predicted in the Caldecott tunnel fire. The results of the analysis are presented in detail, with an evaluation of the cask response to the fire. The staff concluded that some components of smaller transportation casks resembling the NAC LWT, despite placement within an ISO container, could degrade significantly. Small transportation casks similar to the NAC LWT would probably experience failure of seals in this severe accident scenario. USNRC staff evaluated the radiological consequences of the cask response to the Caldecott tunnel fire. Although some components heated up beyond their service temperatures, the staff determined that there would be no significant release as a result of the fire for the NAC LWT and similar casks.

  17. Contact Interface Verification for DYNA3D Scenario 2: Multi-Surface Contact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McMichael, L D

    2006-05-10

    A suite of test problems has been developed to examine contact behavior within the nonlinear, three-dimensional, explicit finite element analysis (FEA) code DYNA3D (Lin, 2005). The test problems use multiple interfaces and a combination of enforcement methods to assess the basic functionality of the contact algorithms. The results from the DYNA3D analyses are compared to closed form solutions to verify the contact behavior. This work was performed as part of the Verification and Validation efforts of LLNL W Program within the NNSA's Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) Program. DYNA3D models the transient dynamic response of solids and structures including the interactions between disjoint bodies (parts). A wide variety of contact surfaces are available to represent the diverse interactions possible during an analysis, including relative motion (sliding), separation and gap closure (voids), and fixed relative position (tied). The problem geometry may be defined using a combination of element formulations, including one-dimensional beam and truss elements, two-dimensional shell elements, and three-dimensional solid elements. Consequently, it is necessary to consider various element interactions during contact. This report and associated test problems examine the scenario where multiple bodies interact with each other via multiple interfaces. The test problems focus on whether any ordering issues exist in the contact logic by using a combination of interface types, contact enforcement options (i.e., penalty, Lagrange, and kinematic), and element interactions within each problem. The influence of rigid materials on interface behavior is also examined. The companion report (McMichael, 2006) and associated test problems address the basic contact scenario where one contact surface exists between two disjoint bodies. The test problems are analyzed using version 5.2 (compiled on 12/22/2005) of DYNA3D. The analytical results are used to form baseline solutions for subsequent regression testing. In section 2, the test problems are presented, and the static solution is developed for two idealized systems. Section 3 describes the finite element representation of the generic problem, including the interface combinations considered. The verification criteria and expected results are presented next in section 4. Section 5 discusses the numerical results obtained from each test problem. Finally, section 6 summarizes the observed interface behavior.

  18. Contact Interface Verification for DYNA3D Scenario 1: Basic Contact

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McMichael, L D

    2006-05-10

    A suite of test problems has been developed to examine contact behavior within the nonlinear, three-dimensional, explicit finite element analysis (FEA) code DYNA3D (Lin, 2005). The test problems address the basic functionality of the contact algorithms, including the behavior of various kinematic, penalty, and Lagrangian enforcement formulations. The results from the DYNA3D analyses are compared to closed form solutions to verify the contact behavior. This work was performed as part of the Verification and Validation efforts of LLNL W Program within the NNSA's Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) Program. DYNA3D models the transient dynamic response of solids and structures including the interactions between disjoint bodies (parts). A wide variety of contact surfaces are available to represent the diverse interactions possible during an analysis, including relative motion (sliding), separation and gap closure (voids), and fixed relative position (tied). The problem geometry may be defined using a combination of element formulations, including one-dimensional beam and truss elements, two-dimensional shell elements, and three-dimensional solid elements. Consequently, it is necessary to consider various element interactions for each contact algorithm being verified. Most of the contact algorithms currently available in DYNA3D are examined; the exceptions are the Type 4--Single Surface Contact and Type 11--SAND algorithms. It is likely that these algorithms will be removed since their functionality is embodied in other, more robust, contact algorithms. The automatic contact algorithm is evaluated using the Type 12 interface. Two other variations of automatic contact, Type 13 and Type 14, offer additional means to adapt the interface domain, but share the same search and restoration algorithms as Type 12. The contact algorithms are summarized in Table 1. This report and associated test problems examine the scenario where one contact surface exists between two disjoint bodies. These test problems focus on whether a particular contact algorithm properly represents the interactions along the interface. A companion report (McMichael, 2006) and test problems address the multi-contact scenario in which multiple bodies interact with each other via multiple interfaces. The multi-contact test problems examine whether any ordering issues exist in the contact logic. The test problems are analyzed using version 5.2 (compiled on 12/22/2005) of DYNA3D. The analytical results are used to form baseline solutions for subsequent regression testing.

  19. The Pleistocene biogeography of eastern North America: A nonmigration scenario for deciduous forest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loehle, C.; Iltis, H.

    1998-12-31

    The current reconstruction of the vegetation of eastern North America at the last glacial maximum postulates a very wide zone of tundra and boreal forest south of the ice. This reconstruction requires that the deciduous forest retreated far to the south. The authors believe that this reconstruction is seriously in error. Geologic evidence for glacial activity or tundra is absent from the southern Appalachians. Positive evidence for boreal forest is based on pollen identifications for Picea, Betula, and Pinus, when in reality southern members of these genera have pollen that cannot be distinguished from that of northern members. Further, pollen of typical southern species such as oaks and hickories occurs throughout profiles that past authors had labeled boreal. Pollen evidence for a far southern deciduous forest refuge is lacking. Data on endemics are particularly challenging for the scenario in which deciduous forest migrated to the south and back. The southern Appalachian region is rife with endemics that are often extreme-habitat specialists unable to migrate. The previously glaciated zone is almost completely lacking in endemics. Outlier populations, range boundaries, and absence of certain hybrids all argue against a large boreal zone. The new reconstruction postulates a cold zone no more than 75--100 miles wide south of the ice in the East.

  20. A HYBRID SCENARIO FOR THE FORMATION OF BROWN DWARFS AND VERY LOW MASS STARS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Basu, Shantanu; Vorobyov, Eduard I. E-mail: eduard.vorobiev@univie.ac.at

    2012-05-01

    We present a calculation of protostellar disk formation and evolution in which gaseous clumps (essentially, the first Larson cores formed via disk fragmentation) are ejected from the disk during the early stage of evolution. This is a universal process related to the phenomenon of ejection in multiple systems of point masses. However, it occurs in our model entirely due to the interaction of compact, gravitationally bound gaseous clumps and is free from the smoothing-length uncertainty that is characteristic of models using sink particles. Clumps that survive ejection span a mass range of 0.08-0.35 M{sub Sun }, and have ejection velocities 0.8 {+-} 0.35 km s{sup -1}, which are several times greater than the escape speed. We suggest that, upon contraction, these clumps can form substellar or low-mass stellar objects with notable disks, or even close-separation very low mass binaries. In this hybrid scenario, allowing for ejection of clumps rather than finished protostars/proto-brown-dwarfs, disk formation and the low velocity dispersion of low-mass objects are naturally explained, while it is also consistent with the observation of isolated low-mass clumps that are ejection products. We conclude that clump ejection and the formation of isolated low-mass stellar and substellar objects is a common occurrence, with important implications for understanding the initial mass function, the brown dwarf desert, and the formation of stars in all environments and epochs.

  1. Intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ganguly, Auroop R

    2011-01-01

    Recent research on the projection of precipitation extremes has either focused on conceptual physical mechanisms that generate heavy precipitation or rigorous statistical methods that extrapolate tail behavior. However, informing both climate prediction and impact assessment requires concurrent physically and statistically oriented analysis. A combined examination of climate model simulations and observation-based reanalysis data sets suggests more intense and frequent precipitation extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios. Utilization of statistical extreme value theory and resampling-based uncertainty quantification combined with consideration of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship reveals consistently intensifying trends for precipitation extremes at a global-average scale. However, regional and decadal analyses reveal specific discrepancies in the physical mechanisms governing precipitation extremes, as well as their statistical trends, especially in the tropics. The intensifying trend of precipitation extremes has quantifiable impacts on intensity-duration-frequency curves, which in turn have direct implications for hydraulic engineering design and water-resources management. The larger uncertainties at regional and decadal scales suggest the need for caution during regional-scale adaptation or preparedness decisions. Future research needs to explore the possibility of uncertainty reduction through higher resolution global climate models, statistical or dynamical downscaling, as well as improved understanding of precipitation extremes processes.

  2. A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yu, Sha; Eom, Jiyong; Evans, Meredydd; Clarke, Leon E.

    2014-04-01

    China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, is developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13% - 22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement.

  3. Nuclear Test Scenarios for Discussion of On-Site Inspection Technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sweeney, J J; Hawkins, W

    2009-03-13

    The purpose of the ISS OSI Invited Meeting being held in Vienna March 24-27, 2009 is to obtain a better understanding of the phenomenology of underground nuclear explosions for On-Site Inspection (OSI) purposes. In order to focus the technology discussions, we have developed two very general scenarios, or models, of underground nuclear test configurations and phenomena that will help us explore the application of OSI methodologies and techniques. The scenarios describe testing environments, operations, logistics, equipment, and facilities that might be used in conducting an underground nuclear test. One scenario involves emplacement of a nuclear device into a vertical borehole in an area with relatively flat terrain; the other involves emplacement within a tunnel (horizontally) in an area with mountainous terrain. Vertical borehole geometry The example for this scenario is an intermediate yield nuclear explosion carried out in a flat desert area. The ground was cleared and smoothed over a 200 X 200 m fenced area for operational support activities, access to the borehole, and in order to place a few structures to house diagnostics equipment and control functions. Power lines were provided for local electrical power. The vertical emplacement borehole was 2 m in diameter and bored to a depth of 350 m. The emplacement hole was lined with steel pipe in order to keep the hole open and to avoid cave-ins during emplacement of the nuclear device. Emplacement was above the local water table, and the top of the saturation zone is about 30 m below the bottom of the emplacement hole. The detonation point was at a depth of 340 m. All of the rock material removed while drilling the borehole was removed to another place. Diagnostics and control for the test were relatively simple: about 2 dozen high capacity coaxial cables feed from the down hole instruments to the surface and then about 100 m laterally to a diagnostics trailer. Two strong steel cables were used to emplace the device and diagnostic instruments and to support the down hole cables. The borehole was stemmed after the device was emplaced. The stemming material was relatively simple: the hole was backfilled with sand or gravel about 20-30 m above the nuclear experiment package, a grouted plug about 3 m thick is added, and the hole backfilled with a mixture of sand and gravel to the surface. After the test, the testing party removed all structures and power lines and covered the top of the borehole with a small building. Geologic environment before the test--The geology for the test consists of flat-lying alluvium and tuff, with 50 m of poorly consolidated alluvium near the surface and moderately welded tuff from 50 m depth to 50 m below the bottom of the hole. The upper tuff is underlain by a densely welded tuff unit, with basement Paleozoic sedimentary rock beginning at a depth of about 1000 m. The tuff is intact with a few fractures. There are no known faults located within 500 m of the borehole. Alteration of the underground environment--The blast created a spherical or near spherical cavity with a lens of vitrified material at the bottom. There are several zones surrounding the detonation point with decreasing levels of rock damage. The zones are: (1) the crushed zone (several tens of meters)where the rock has lost all prior integrity; (2) the fractured zone (out to a couple of hundred meters) characterized by radial and concentric fissures; and (3) the zone of irreversible strain (out to a couple of thousand meters) with local media deformation. A collapse chimney formed one hour after the detonation, in which overlying material fell into the explosion cavity. This chimney zone reached up to within 50 m of the surface and a small apical void formed (10 m high and 80 m in diameter) at the top of the rubble chimney. The rubble chimney is dry and density is about 20% less than the surrounding intact rock. Alteration at the surface--No surface depression formed, but there is significant 'fluffing' of the surface soil from the effects of the initial shock wave. A few radial

  4. Climate Change Scenario Planning in Alaska's National Parks: Stakeholder Involvement in the Decision-Making Process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ernst, Kathleen M; Van Riemsdijk, Dr. Micheline

    2013-01-01

    This article studies the participation of stakeholders in climate change decision-making in Alaska s National Parks. We place stakeholder participation within literatures on environmental and climate change decision-making. We conducted participant observation and interviews in two planning workshops to investigate the decision-making process, and our findings are three-fold. First, the inclusion of diverse stakeholders expanded climate change decision-making beyond National Park Service (NPS) institutional constraints. Second, workshops of the Climate Change Scenario Planning Project (CCSPP) enhanced institutional understandings of participants attitudes towards climate change and climate change decision-making. Third, the geographical context of climate change influences the decision-making process. As the first regional approach to climate change decision-making within the NPS, the CCSPP serves as a model for future climate change planning in public land agencies. This study shows how the participation of stakeholders can contribute to robust decisions, may move climate change decision-making beyond institutional barriers, and can provide information about attitudes towards climate change decision-making.

  5. Climate change scenario planning in Alaska's National Parks: Stakeholder involvement in the decision-making process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ernst, Kathleen M; Van Riemsdijk, Dr. Micheline

    2013-01-01

    This article studies the participation of stakeholders in climate change decision-making in Alaska s National Parks. We place stakeholder participation within literatures on environmental and climate change decision-making. We conducted participant observation and interviews in two planning workshops to investigate the decision-making process, and our findings are three-fold. First, the inclusion of diverse stakeholders expanded climate change decision-making beyond National Park Service (NPS) institutional constraints. Second, workshops of the Climate Change Scenario Planning Project (CCSPP) enhanced institutional understandings of participants attitudes towards climate change and climate change decision-making. Third, the geographical context of climate change influences the decisionmaking process. As the first regional approach to climate change decision-making within the NPS, the CCSPP serves as a model for future climate change planning in public land agencies. This study shows how the participation of stakeholders can contribute to robust decisions, may move climate change decision-making beyond institutional barriers, and can provide information about attitudes towards climate change decision-making.

  6. Analysis of LOCA Scenarios in the NIST Research Reactor Before and After Fuel Conversion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baek, J. S.; Cheng, L. Y.; Diamond, D.

    2015-08-30

    An analysis has been done of hypothetical loss-of-coolant-accidents (LOCAs) in the research reactor (NBSR) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The purpose of the analysis is to determine if the peak clad temperature remains below the Safety Limit, which is the blister temperature for the fuel. The configuration of the NBSR considered in the analysis is that projected for the future when changes will be made so that shutdown pumps do not operate when a LOCA signal is detected. The analysis was done for the present core with high-enriched uranium (HEU) fuel and with the proposed low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel that would be used when the NBSR is converted from one to the other. The analysis consists of two parts. The first examines how the water would drain from the primary system following a break and the possibility for the loss of coolant from within the fuel element flow channels. This work is performed using the TRACE system thermal-hydraulic code. The second looks at the fuel clad temperature as a function of time given that the water may have drained from many of the flow channels and the water in the vessel is in a quasi-equilibrium state. The temperature behavior is investigated using the three-dimensional heat conduction code HEATING7.3. The results in all scenarios considered for both HEU and LEU fuel show that the peak clad temperature remains below the blister temperature.

  7. Analysis of Long-range Clean Energy Investment Scenarios forEritrea, East Africa

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Van Buskirk, Robert D.

    2004-05-07

    We discuss energy efficiency and renewable energy investments in Eritrea from the strategic long-term economic perspective of meeting Eritrea's sustainable development goals and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Energy efficiency and renewable energy are potentially important contributors to national productive capital accumulation, enhancement of the environment, expansion of energy services, increases in household standard of living, and improvements in health. In this study we develop a spreadsheet model for calculating some of the national benefits and costs of different levels of investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy. We then present the results of the model in terms of investment demand and investment scenario curves. These curves express the contribution that efficiency and renewable energy projects can make in terms of reduced energy sector operating expenses, and reduced carbon emissions. We provide demand and supply curves that show the rate of return, the cost of carbon emissions reductions vs. supply, and the evolution of the marginal carbon emissions per dollar of GDP for different investment levels and different fuel-type subsectors.

  8. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochemical Scenarios for Production of Cellulosic Ethanol

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kazi, F. K.; Fortman, J.; Anex, R.; Kothandaraman, G.; Hsu, D.; Aden, A.; Dutta, A.

    2010-06-01

    A techno-economic analysis on the production of cellulosic ethanol by fermentation was conducted to understand the viability of liquid biofuel production processes within the next 5-8 years. Initially, 35 technologies were reviewed, then a two-step down selection was performed to choose scenarios to be evaluated in a more detailed economic analysis. The lignocellulosic ethanol process was selected because it is well studied and portions of the process have been tested at pilot scales. Seven process variations were selected and examined in detail. Process designs were constrained to public data published in 2007 or earlier, without projecting for future process improvements. Economic analysis was performed for an 'nth plant' (mature technology) to obtain total investment and product value (PV). Sensitivity analysis was performed on PV to assess the impact of variations in process and economic parameters. Results show that the modeled dilute acid pretreatment process without any downstream process variation had the lowest PV of $3.40/gal of ethanol ($5.15/gallon of gasoline equivalent) in 2007 dollars. Sensitivity analysis shows that PV is most sensitive to feedstock and enzyme costs.

  9. Scenarios constructed for the effects of tectonic processes on the potential nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barr, G.E.; Borns, D.J.; Fridrich, C.

    1996-10-01

    A comprehensive collection of scenarios is presented that connect initiating tectonic events with radionuclide releases by logical and physically possible combinations or sequences of features, events and processes. The initiating tectonic events include both discrete faulting and distributed rock deformation developed through the repository and adjacent to it, as well as earthquake-induced ground motion and changes in tectonic stress at the site. The effects of these tectonic events include impacts on the engineered-barrier system, such as container rupture and failure of repository tunnels. These effects also include a wide range of hydrologic effects such as changes in pathways and flow rates in the unsaturated and saturated zones, changes in the water-table configuration, and in the development of perched-water systems. These scenarios are intended go guide performance-assessment analyses and to assist principal investigators in how essential field, laboratory, and calculational studies are used. This suite of scenarios will help ensure that all important aspects of the system disturbance related to a tectonic scenario are captured in numerical analyses. It also provides a record of all options considered by project analysts to provide documentation required for licensing agreement. The final portion of this report discusses issues remaining to be addressed with respect to tectonic activity. 105 refs.

  10. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the in-tank fuel fire/deflageration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-09

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for In-Tank Fuel fire/Deflageration consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Tank Fuel Fire/Deflageration scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  11. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the in-tank fuel fire/deflagration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for In-Tank Fuel Fire/Deflageration consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Tank Fuel Fire/Deflageration scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  12. Exploring the Future Role of Asia Utilizing A Scenario Matrix Architecture and Shared Socio-Ecosystem Pathways

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Wise, Marshall A.

    2012-12-01

    We explore the implications of alternative pathways for human population and economic development for the role of Asia in both reference, no-climate-policy, scenarios and scenarios in which climate forcing is limited. We consider three different reference scenarios, which we refer to as Shared Socio-ecosystem Pathways (SSPs) and four different levels of limitation on climate forcing, which we refer to as Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs). SSPs are differentiated by population and economic growth assumptions, while SPAs are differentiated on the level of radiative forcing in the year 2100. Regardless of the scenarios we examined Asia plays a central role in shaping the worlds future with nearly half of the worlds people and more than half of the worlds economic activity and energy consumption. The future of Asian and world are dramatically different across the various combinations of SSPs and SPAs. High population worlds place significant stress on Asian resources and ecosystems. In high population SSPs the poorest members of the population face high energy and food prices and the more stringent the level of emissions mitigation, the more stress poor populations experience, though the more stringent the emissions mitigation, the larger the area of unmanaged ecosystems that are preserved.

  13. Status of Advanced Tokamak Scenario Modeling with Off-Axis Electron Cyclotron Current Drive in DIII-D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    M. Murakami; H.E. St.John; T.A. Casper; M.S. Chu; J.C. DeBoo; C.M. Greenfield; J.E. Kinsey; L.L. Lao; R.J. La Haye; Y.R. Lin-Liu; T.C. Luce; P.A. Politzer; B.W. Rice; G.M. Staebler; T.S. Taylor; M.R. Wade

    1999-12-01

    The status of modeling work focused on developing the advanced tokamak scenarios in DIII-D is discussed. The objectives of the work are two-fold: (1) to develop AT scenarios with ECCD using time-dependent transport simulations, coupled with heating and current drive models, consistent with MHD equilibrium and stability; and (2) to use time-dependent simulations to help plan experiments and to understand the key physics involved. Time-dependent simulations based on transport coefficients derived from experimentally achieved target discharges are used to perform AT scenario modeling. The modeling indicates off-axis ECCD with approximately 3 MW absorbed power can maintain high-performance discharges with q{sub min} > 1 for 5 to 10 s. The resultant equilibria are calculated to be stable to n = 1 pressure driven modes. The plasma is well into the second stability regime for high-n ballooning modes over a large part of the plasma volume. The role of continuous localized ECCD is studied for stabilizing m/n = 2/1 tearing modes. The progress towards validating current drive and transport models, consistent with experimental results, and developing self-consistent, integrated high performance AT scenarios is discussed.

  14. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brunsell, Nathaniel; Mechem, David; Ma, Chunsheng

    2015-02-20

    Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.

  15. Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ha, Miae; Wu, May

    2015-09-08

    Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. With this study, it evaluates a strategy of incorporating landscape design and management concepts into bioenergy feedstock production. It examines the effect of land conversion and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) on water quality (nutrients and suspended sediments) and hydrology. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, where the focus was on converting low-productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass and implementing riparian buffers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate the impact at watershed and sub-basin scales. The study compared the representation of buffers by using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. Landscape design and management scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (i) current land use, (ii) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (iii) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that implementation of vegetative barriers and riparian buffer can trap the loss of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment significantly. The effect increases with the increase of buffer area coverage. Implementing riparian buffer at 30 m width is able to produce 4 million liters of biofuels. When low-productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively. The results highlight the significant role of lower-productivity land and buffers in cellulosic biomass and provide insights into the design of an integrated landscape with a conservation buffer for future bioenergy feedstock production.

  16. Biomass Energy for Transport and Electricity: Large scale utilization under low CO2 concentration scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Luckow, Patrick; Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.

    2010-01-25

    This paper examines the potential role of large scale, dedicated commercial biomass energy systems under global climate policies designed to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at 400ppm and 450ppm. We use an integrated assessment model of energy and agriculture systems to show that, given a climate policy in which terrestrial carbon is appropriately valued equally with carbon emitted from the energy system, biomass energy has the potential to be a major component of achieving these low concentration targets. The costs of processing and transporting biomass energy at much larger scales than current experience are also incorporated into the modeling. From the scenario results, 120-160 EJ/year of biomass energy is produced by midcentury and 200-250 EJ/year by the end of this century. In the first half of the century, much of this biomass is from agricultural and forest residues, but after 2050 dedicated cellulosic biomass crops become the dominant source. A key finding of this paper is the role that carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies coupled with commercial biomass energy can play in meeting stringent emissions targets. Despite the higher technology costs of CCS, the resulting negative emissions used in combination with biomass are a very important tool in controlling the cost of meeting a target, offsetting the venting of CO2 from sectors of the energy system that may be more expensive to mitigate, such as oil use in transportation. The paper also discusses the role of cellulosic ethanol and Fischer-Tropsch biomass derived transportation fuels and shows that both technologies are important contributors to liquid fuels production, with unique costs and emissions characteristics. Through application of the GCAM integrated assessment model, it becomes clear that, given CCS availability, bioenergy will be used both in electricity and transportation.

  17. Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Ha, Miae; Wu, May

    2015-09-08

    Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. With this study, it evaluates a strategy of incorporating landscape design and management concepts into bioenergy feedstock production. It examines the effect of land conversion and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) on water quality (nutrients and suspended sediments) and hydrology. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, where the focus was on converting low-productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass and implementing riparian buffers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) wasmore » employed to simulate the impact at watershed and sub-basin scales. The study compared the representation of buffers by using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. Landscape design and management scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (i) current land use, (ii) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (iii) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that implementation of vegetative barriers and riparian buffer can trap the loss of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment significantly. The effect increases with the increase of buffer area coverage. Implementing riparian buffer at 30 m width is able to produce 4 million liters of biofuels. When low-productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively. The results highlight the significant role of lower-productivity land and buffers in cellulosic biomass and provide insights into the design of an integrated landscape with a conservation buffer for future bioenergy feedstock production.« less

  18. CONSTRAINING JET PRODUCTION SCENARIOS BY STUDIES OF NARROW-LINE RADIO GALAXIES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sikora, Marek; Stasinska, Grazyna; Koziel-Wierzbowska, Dorota; Madejski, Greg M.; Asari, Natalia V.

    2013-03-01

    We study a large sample of narrow-line radio galaxies (NLRGs) with extended radio structures. Using 1.4 GHz radio luminosities L {sub 1.4}, narrow optical emission line luminosities L {sub [OIII]} and L{sub H{sub {alpha}}}, as well as black hole masses M {sub BH} derived from stellar velocity dispersions measured from the optical spectra obtained with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we find that (1) NLRGs cover about four decades of the Eddington ratio, {lambda} {identical_to} L {sub bol}/L {sub Edd}{proportional_to}L {sub line}/M {sub BH}; (2) L {sub 1.4}/M {sub BH} strongly correlates with {lambda}; and (3) radio loudness, R{identical_to}L{sub 1.4}/L{sub line}, strongly anti-correlates with {lambda}. A very broad range of the Eddington ratio indicates that the parent population of NLRGs includes both radio-loud quasars (RLQs) and broad-line radio galaxies (BLRGs). The correlations they obey and their high jet production efficiencies favor a jet production model which involves the so-called magnetically choked accretion scenario. In this model, production of the jet is dominated by the Blandford-Znajek mechanism, and the magnetic fields in the vicinity of the central black hole are confined by the ram pressure of the accretion flow. Since large net magnetic flux accumulated in central regions of the accretion flow required by the model can take place only via geometrically thick accretion, we speculate that the massive, 'cold' accretion events associated with luminous emission-line active galactic nucleus can be accompanied by an efficient jet production only if preceded by a hot, very sub-Eddington accretion phase.

  19. Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on January 31, 2007

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This list describes the participants at the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure meeting on January 31, 2007.

  20. Synthesis, crystal structure and properties of Mg{sub 3}B{sub 36}Si{sub 9}C and related rare earth compounds RE{sub 3−x}B{sub 36}Si{sub 9}C (RE=Y, Gd–Lu)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ludwig, Thilo; Pediaditakis, Alexis; Sagawe, Vanessa; Hillebrecht, Harald

    2013-08-15

    We report on the synthesis and characterisation of Mg{sub 3}B{sub 36}Si{sub 9}C. Black single crystals of hexagonal shape were yielded from the elements at 1600 °C in h-BN crucibles welded in Ta ampoules. The crystal structure (space group R3{sup ¯}m, a=10.0793(13) Å, c=16.372(3) Å, 660 refl., 51 param., R{sub 1}(F)=0.019; wR{sub 2}(F{sup 2})=0.051) is characterized by a Kagome-net of B{sub 12} icosahedra, ethane like Si{sub 8}-units and disordered SiC-dumbbells. Vibrational spectra show typical features of boron-rich borides and Zintl phases. Mg{sub 3}B{sub 36}Si{sub 9}C is stable against HF/HNO{sub 3} and conc. NaOH. The micro-hardness is 17.0 GPa (Vickers) and 14.5 GPa (Knoop), respectively. According to simple electron counting rules Mg{sub 3}B{sub 36}Si{sub 9}C is an electron precise compound. Band structure calculations reveal a band gap of 1.0 eV in agreement to the black colour. Interatomic distances obtained from the refinement of X-ray data are biased and falsified by the disorder of the SiC-dumbbell. The most evident structural parameters were obtained by relaxation calculation. Composition and carbon content were confirmed by WDX measurements. The small but significant carbon content is necessary by structural reasons and frequently caused by contaminations. The rare earth compounds RE{sub 3−x}B{sub 36}Si{sub 9}C (RE=Y, Dy–Lu) are isotypic. Single crystals were grown from a silicon melt and their structures refined. The partial occupation of the RE-sites fits to the requirements of an electron-precise composition. According to the displacement parameters a relaxation should be applied to obtain correct structural parameters. - Graphical abstract: Single crystals of the new boridesilicide Mg{sub 3}B{sub 36}Si{sub 9}C were obtained from the elements in a Si-melt. Besides B{sub 12}-icosahedra and ethan-like Si{sub 8}-units it contains a disordered SiC-dumbbell. Correct distances were obtained by relaxation calculation based on the X-ray data. Highlights: • Black single crystals of Mg{sub 3}B{sub 36}Si{sub 9}C were yielded from the elements at 1600 °C. • The rare earth compounds RE{sub 3–x}B{sub 36}Si{sub 9}C (RE=Y, Gd–Lu) are isotypic. • Correct structural parameters result from X-ray data and subsequent relaxation.

  1. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Value Proposition Study: Interim Report: Phase I Scenario Evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sikes, Karen R; Markel, Lawrence C; Hadley, Stanton W; Hinds, Shaun; DeVault, Robert C

    2009-01-01

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) offer significant improvements in fuel economy, convenient low-cost recharging capabilities, potential environmental benefits, and decreased reliance on imported petroleum. However, the cost associated with new components (e.g., advanced batteries) to be introduced in these vehicles will likely result in a price premium to the consumer. This study aims to overcome this market barrier by identifying and evaluating value propositions that will increase the qualitative value and/or decrease the overall cost of ownership relative to the competing conventional vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) of 2030 During this initial phase of this study, business scenarios were developed based on economic advantages that either increase the consumer value or reduce the consumer cost of PHEVs to assure a sustainable market that can thrive without the aid of state and Federal incentives or subsidies. Once the characteristics of a thriving PHEV market have been defined for this timeframe, market introduction steps, such as supportive policies, regulations and temporary incentives, needed to reach this level of sustainability will be determined. PHEVs have gained interest over the past decade for several reasons, including their high fuel economy, convenient low-cost recharging capabilities, potential environmental benefits and reduced use of imported petroleum, potentially contributing to President Bush's goal of a 20% reduction in gasoline use in ten years, or 'Twenty in Ten'. PHEVs and energy storage from advanced batteries have also been suggested as enabling technologies to improve the reliability and efficiency of the electric power grid. However, PHEVs will likely cost significantly more to purchase than conventional or other hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), in large part because of the cost of batteries. Despite the potential long-term savings to consumers and value to stakeholders, the initial cost of PHEVs presents a major market barrier to their widespread commercialization. The purpose of this project is to identify and evaluate value-added propositions for PHEVs that will help overcome this market barrier. Candidate value propositions for the initial case study were chosen to enhance consumer acceptance of PHEVs and/or compatibility with the grid. Potential benefits of such grid-connected vehicles include the ability to supply peak load or emergency power requirements of the grid, enabling utilities to size their generation capacity and contingency resources at levels below peak. Different models for vehicle/battery ownership, leasing, financing and operation, as well as the grid, communications, and vehicle infrastructure needed to support the proposed value-added functions were explored during Phase 1. Rigorous power system, vehicle, financial and emissions modeling were utilized to help identify the most promising value propositions and market niches to focus PHEV deployment initiatives.

  2. Deep Burn Fuel Cycle Integration: Evaluation of Two-Tier Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Bays; H. Zhang; M. Pope

    2009-05-01

    The use of a deep burn strategy using VHTRs (or DB-MHR), as a means of burning transuranics produced by LWRs, was compared to performing this task with LWR MOX. The spent DB-MHR fuel was recycled for ultimate final recycle in fast reactors (ARRs). This report summarizes the preliminary findings of the support ratio (in terms of MWth installed) between LWRs, DB-MHRs and ARRs in an equilibrium two-tier fuel cycle scenario. Values from literature were used to represent the LWR and DB-MHR isotopic compositions. A reactor physics simulation of the ARR was analyzed to determine the effect that the DB-MHR spent fuel cooling time on the ARR transuranic consumption rate. These results suggest that the cooling time has some but not a significant impact on the ARRs conversion ratio and transuranic consumption rate. This is attributed to fissile worth being derived from non-fissile or threshold-fissioning isotopes in the ARRs fast spectrum. The fraction of installed thermal capacity of each reactor in the DB-MHR 2-tier fuel cycle was compared with that of an equivalent MOX 2-tier fuel cycle, assuming fuel supply and demand are in equilibrium. The use of DB-MHRs in the 1st-tier allows for a 10% increase in the fraction of fleet installed capacity of UO2-fueled LWRs compared to using a MOX 1st-tier. Also, it was found that because the DB-MHR derives more power per unit mass of transuranics charged to the fresh fuel, the front-end reprocessing demand is less than MOX. Therefore, more fleet installed capacity of DB-MHR would be required to support a given fleet of UO2 LWRs than would be required of MOX plants. However, the transuranic deep burn achieved by DB-MHRs reduces the number of fast reactors in the 2nd-tier to support the DB-MHRs back-end transuranic output than if MOX plants were used. Further analysis of the relative costs of these various types of reactors is required before a comparative study of these options could be considered complete.

  3. California's electricity system of the future scenario analysis in support of public-interest transmission system R&D planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eto, Joseph; Stovall, John P.

    2003-04-01

    The California Energy Commission directed the Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions to analyze possible future scenarios for the California electricity system and assess transmission research and development (R&D) needs, with special emphasis on prioritizing public-interest R&D needs, using criteria developed by the Energy Commission. The scenarios analyzed in this report are not predictions, nor do they express policy preferences of the project participants or the Energy Commission. The public-interest R&D needs that are identified as a result of the analysis are one input that will be considered by the Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research staff in preparing a transmission R&D plan.

  4. Embedding the Zee-Wolfenstein neutrino mass matrix in an SO(10)xA{sub 4} GUT scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grimus, Walter; Kuehboeck, Helmut

    2008-03-01

    We consider renormalizable SO(10) Yukawa interactions and put the three fermionic 16-plets into the 3-dimensional irreducible A{sub 4} representation. Scanning the possible A{sub 4} representation assignments to the scalars, we find a unique case which allows one to accommodate the down-quark and charged-lepton masses. Assuming type II seesaw dominance, we obtain a viable scenario with the Zee-Wolfenstein neutrino mass matrix, i.e., the Majorana mass matrix with a vanishing diagonal. Contributions from the charged-lepton mass matrix resolve the well-known problems with lepton mixing arising from the vanishing diagonal. In our scenario, fermion masses and mixings are well reproduced for both normal and inverted neutrino mass spectra, and b-{tau} Yukawa unification and definite predictions for the effective mass in neutrinoless double-{beta} decay are obtained.

  5. Validation of the thermal transport model used for ITER startup scenario predictions with DIII-D experimental data

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Casper, T. A.; Meyer, W. H.; Jackson, G. L.; Luce, T. C.; Hyatt, A. W.; Humphreys, D. A.; Turco, F.

    2010-12-08

    We are exploring characteristics of ITER startup scenarios in similarity experiments conducted on the DIII-D Tokamak. In these experiments, we have validated scenarios for the ITER current ramp up to full current and developed methods to control the plasma parameters to achieve stability. Predictive simulations of ITER startup using 2D free-boundary equilibrium and 1D transport codes rely on accurate estimates of the electron and ion temperature profiles that determine the electrical conductivity and pressure profiles during the current rise. Here we present results of validation studies that apply the transport model used by the ITER team to DIII-D discharge evolutionmore » and comparisons with data from our similarity experiments.« less

  6. Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis: Quantitative Estimates Used to Facilitate Working Group Discussions (2008-2010)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Braccio, R.; Finch, P.; Frazier, R.

    2012-03-01

    This report provides details on the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis to identify potential policy options and evaluate their impact on reaching the 70% HECI goal, present possible pathways to attain the goal based on currently available technology, with an eye to initiatives under way in Hawaii, and provide an 'order-of-magnitude' cost estimate and a jump-start to action that would be adjusted with a better understanding of the technologies and market.

  7. An Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario (Report Summary) (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Denholm, P.; Wan, Y. H.; Hummon, M.; Mehos, M.

    2013-04-01

    This analysis evaluates CSP with TES in a scenario where California derives 33% of its electricity from renewable energy sources. It uses a commercial grid simulation tool to examine the avoided operational and capacity costs associated with CSP and compares this value to PV and a baseload generation with constant output. Overall, the analysis demonstrates several properties of dispatchable CSP, including the flexibility to generate during periods of high value and avoid generation during periods of lower value. Of note in this analysis is the fact that significant amount of operational value is derived from the provision of reserves in the case where CSP is allowed to provide these services. This analysis also indicates that the 'optimal' configuration of CSP could vary as a function of renewable penetration, and each configuration will need to be evaluated in terms of its ability to provide dispatchable energy, reserves, and firm capacity. The model can be used to investigate additional scenarios involving alternative technology options and generation mixes, applying these scenarios within California or in other regions of interest.

  8. Archived Reference Climate Zone: 3B Los Angeles, California

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Here you will find past versions of the commercial reference building models for existing buildings constructed before 1980, organized by building type and location. A summary ofbuilding types and climate zones is available for reference. Current versions are also available.

  9. Archived Reference Climate Zone: 3B Los Angeles, California

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Here you will find past versions of the commercial reference building models for existing buildings constructed in or after 1980, organized by building type and location. A summary of building types and climate zones is available for reference. Current versions are also available.

  10. Attachment 3 b. Part A Page 1 of 6

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... Questions regarding payment should be directed to: U.S. Department of Energy PO Box 500 Germantown, MD 20875 Attn: Insert name Phone: Insert phone number (xxx) xxx-xxxx Email: ...

  11. MINERvA Engineering Info for Director's 3b review

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    as shown in 3. U Scintillator Plane Ass'y (PDF 760k), dwg 70008; reviewed by J. Nelson & R. Flight on 52507 4. V Scintillator Plane Ass'y (PDF 753k), dwg 70009; reviewed...

  12. Archived Reference Climate Zone: 3B Las Vegas, Nevada

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Here you will find past versions of the commercial reference building models for existing buildings constructed in or after 1980, organized by building type and location. A summary of building types and climate zones is available for reference. Current versions are also available.

  13. Archived Reference Climate Zone: 3B Las Vegas, Nevada

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Here you will find past versions of the commercial reference building models for existing buildings constructed before 1980, organized by building type and location. A summary ofbuilding types and climate zones is available for reference. Current versions are also available.

  14. Experimental Station 14-3b | Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lightsourc...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Beam line 14-3 is a bending magnet side station dedicated to X-ray imaging and micro X-ray absorption spectroscopy of biological, biomedical, materials, and geological samples. ...

  15. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    phase reforming. Multiple products can be produced, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The oil crops module captures development of conversion capacity for soy-to-refinery...

  16. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    DOE Contract Number: AC36-08GO28308 Resource Type: Technical Report Research Org: National ... Subject: 09 BIOMASS FUELS; 59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ...

  17. An interactive ontology-driven information system for simulating background radiation and generating scenarios for testing special nuclear materials detection algorithms

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Sorokine, Alexandre; Schlicher, Bob G; Ward, Richard C; Wright, Michael C; Kruse, Kara L

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes an original approach to generating scenarios for the purpose of testing the algorithms used to detect special nuclear materials (SNM) that incorporates the use of ontologies. Separating the signal of SNM from the background requires sophisticated algorithms. To assist in developing such algorithms, there is a need for scenarios that capture a very wide range of variables affecting the detection process, depending on the type of detector being used. To provide such a cpability, we developed an ontology-driven information system (ODIS) for generating scenarios that can be used in creating scenarios for testing of algorithms for SNMmore » detection. The ontology-driven scenario generator (ODSG) is an ODIS based on information supplied by subject matter experts and other documentation. The details of the creation of the ontology, the development of the ontology-driven information system, and the design of the web user interface (UI) are presented along with specific examples of scenarios generated using the ODSG. We demonstrate that the paradigm behind the ODSG is capable of addressing the problem of semantic complexity at both the user and developer levels. Compared to traditional approaches, an ODIS provides benefits such as faithful representation of the users' domain conceptualization, simplified management of very large and semantically diverse datasets, and the ability to handle frequent changes to the application and the UI. The approach makes possible the generation of a much larger number of specific scenarios based on limited user-supplied information« less

  18. An interactive ontology-driven information system for simulating background radiation and generating scenarios for testing special nuclear materials detection algorithms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sorokine, Alexandre; Schlicher, Bob G; Ward, Richard C; Wright, Michael C; Kruse, Kara L

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes an original approach to generating scenarios for the purpose of testing the algorithms used to detect special nuclear materials (SNM) that incorporates the use of ontologies. Separating the signal of SNM from the background requires sophisticated algorithms. To assist in developing such algorithms, there is a need for scenarios that capture a very wide range of variables affecting the detection process, depending on the type of detector being used. To provide such a cpability, we developed an ontology-driven information system (ODIS) for generating scenarios that can be used in creating scenarios for testing of algorithms for SNM detection. The ontology-driven scenario generator (ODSG) is an ODIS based on information supplied by subject matter experts and other documentation. The details of the creation of the ontology, the development of the ontology-driven information system, and the design of the web user interface (UI) are presented along with specific examples of scenarios generated using the ODSG. We demonstrate that the paradigm behind the ODSG is capable of addressing the problem of semantic complexity at both the user and developer levels. Compared to traditional approaches, an ODIS provides benefits such as faithful representation of the users' domain conceptualization, simplified management of very large and semantically diverse datasets, and the ability to handle frequent changes to the application and the UI. The approach makes possible the generation of a much larger number of specific scenarios based on limited user-supplied information

  19. LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Moss, Richard H.; Kim, Son H.

    2014-01-19

    In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demandsboth gross withdrawals and net consumptive useare assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also highlight an important role for development and deployment of water conservation technologies and practices.

  20. MODELING OF 2LIBH4 PLUS MGH2 HYDROGEN STORAGE SYSTEM ACCIDENT SCENARIOS USING EMPIRICAL AND THEORETICAL THERMODYNAMICS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    James, C; David Tamburello, D; Joshua Gray, J; Kyle Brinkman, K; Bruce Hardy, B; Donald Anton, D

    2009-04-01

    It is important to understand and quantify the potential risk resulting from accidental environmental exposure of condensed phase hydrogen storage materials under differing environmental exposure scenarios. This paper describes a modeling and experimental study with the aim of predicting consequences of the accidental release of 2LiBH{sub 4}+MgH{sub 2} from hydrogen storage systems. The methodology and results developed in this work are directly applicable to any solid hydride material and/or accident scenario using appropriate boundary conditions and empirical data. The ability to predict hydride behavior for hypothesized accident scenarios facilitates an assessment of the of risk associated with the utilization of a particular hydride. To this end, an idealized finite volume model was developed to represent the behavior of dispersed hydride from a breached system. Semiempirical thermodynamic calculations and substantiating calorimetric experiments were performed in order to quantify the energy released, energy release rates and to quantify the reaction products resulting from water and air exposure of a lithium borohydride and magnesium hydride combination. The hydrides, LiBH{sub 4} and MgH{sub 2}, were studied individually in the as-received form and in the 2:1 'destabilized' mixture. Liquid water hydrolysis reactions were performed in a Calvet calorimeter equipped with a mixing cell using neutral water. Water vapor and oxygen gas phase reactivity measurements were performed at varying relative humidities and temperatures by modifying the calorimeter and utilizing a gas circulating flow cell apparatus. The results of these calorimetric measurements were compared with standardized United Nations (UN) based test results for air and water reactivity and used to develop quantitative kinetic expressions for hydrolysis and air oxidation in these systems. Thermodynamic parameters obtained from these tests were then inputted into a computational fluid dynamics model to predict both the hydrogen generation rates and concentrations along with localized temperature distributions. The results of these numerical simulations can be used to predict ignition events and the resultant conclusions will be discussed.

  1. Hazards and scenarios examined for the Yucca Mountain disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Hazards and scenarios examined for the Yucca Mountain disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste Rob P. Rechard a,n , Geoff A. Freeze b , Frank V. Perry c a Nuclear Waste Disposal Research & Analysis, Sandia National Laboratories, P.O. Box 5800, Albuquerque 87185-0747, NM, USA b Applied Systems Analysis & Research, Sandia National Laboratories, P.O. Box 5800, Albuquerque 87185-0747, NM, USA c Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National

  2. Why Do Global Long-term Scenarios for Agriculture Differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Cai, Yongxia; Calvin, Katherine V.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Nelson, Gerald; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; van Meijl, Hans

    2013-12-02

    Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. Ten global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socio-economic, climate change and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Results suggest that, once general assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines, and that several common conclusions are possible. Nonetheless, differences in basic model parameters, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. This holds for both the common reference scenario and for the various shocks applied. We conclude that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales.

  3. Wind Supply Curves and Location Scenarios in the West: Summary of the Clean and Diverse Energy Wind Task Force Report; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Milligan, M.; Parsons, B.; Shimshak, R.; Larson, D.; Carr, T.

    2006-06-01

    This paper presents supply curves and scenarios that were developed by the Wind Task Force. Much of this information has been adapted from the original Wind Task Force report.

  4. Extreme Climate Event Trends: The Data Mining and Evaluation of the A1FI Scenario for 2000???2100

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Erickson III, David J; Ganguly, Auroop R; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Branstetter, Marcia L; Oglesby, Robert; Hoffman, Forrest M; Buja, Lawrence

    2008-01-01

    The authors discuss the implications and resulting alterations of the hydrologic cycle as Earth climate evolves from 2000-2100. Climate simulations based on the assumptions implicit in the A1F1 scenario for the period 2000-2100 using CCSM3 are analyzed. In particular, we will assess the changes in the surface latent and sensible heat energy budget, the Indian regional water budgets including trends in the timing and duration of the Indian monsoon and the resulting impacts on mean river flow and hydroelectric power generation potential. These analyses will also be examined within the context of heat index, droughts, floods and related estimates of societal robustness and resiliency. We will interpret these new A1F1 results within the context of the previous climate simulations based on the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios forced with land cover and atmospheric CO2. Analyses of historical records in the context of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) have suggested an evolving relation of IMR with natural climate variability caused by El Nino events. We will report on the combined effects of natural climate variability and global warming on IMR and assess the trend of extreme rain and temperature events in a warming environment.

  5. A POSSIBLE EVOLUTIONARY SCENARIO OF HIGHLY MAGNETIZED SUPER-CHANDRASEKHAR WHITE DWARFS: PROGENITORS OF PECULIAR TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, Upasana; Mukhopadhyay, Banibrata; Rao, A. R. E-mail: bm@physics.iisc.ernet.in

    2013-04-10

    Several recently discovered peculiar Type Ia supernovae seem to demand an altogether new formation theory that might help explain the puzzling dissimilarities between them and the standard Type Ia supernovae. The most striking aspect of the observational analysis is the necessity of invoking super-Chandrasekhar white dwarfs having masses {approx}2.1-2.8 M{sub Sun }, M{sub Sun} being the mass of Sun, as their most probable progenitors. Strongly magnetized white dwarfs having super-Chandrasekhar masses have already been established as potential candidates for the progenitors of peculiar Type Ia supernovae. Owing to the Landau quantization of the underlying electron degenerate gas, theoretical results yielded the observationally inferred mass range. Here, we sketch a possible evolutionary scenario by which super-Chandrasekhar white dwarfs could be formed by accretion on to a commonly observed magnetized white dwarf, invoking the phenomenon of flux freezing. This opens multiple possible evolution scenarios ending in supernova explosions of super-Chandrasekhar white dwarfs having masses within the range stated above. We point out that our proposal has observational support, such as the recent discovery of a large number of magnetized white dwarfs by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.

  6. Fine precipitation scenarios of AlZnMg(Cu) alloys revealed by advanced atomic-resolution electron microscopy study Part II: Fine precipitation scenarios in AlZnMg(Cu) alloys

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, J.Z.; Chen, J.H.; Liu, Z.R.; Wu, C.L.

    2015-01-15

    Although they are among the most important precipitation-hardened materials for industry applications, the high-strength AlZnMg(Cu) alloys have thus far not yet been understood adequately about their underlying precipitation scenarios in relation with the properties. This is partly due to the fact that the structures of a number of different precipitates involved in the alloys are unknown, and partly due to the complexity that the precipitation behaviors of the alloys may be closely related to the alloy's composition. In Part I of the present study, we have determined all the unknown precipitate structures in the alloys. Here in Part II, using atomic-resolution electron microscopy in association with the first principles energy calculations, we further studied and correlated the phase/structure transformation/evolution among these hardening precipitates in relation with the alloy's composition. It is shown that there are actually two coexisting classes of hardening precipitates in these alloys: the first class includes the η′-precipitates and their early-stage Guinier–Preston (GP-η′) zones; the second class includes the precursors of the equilibrium η-phase (referred to η{sub p}, or η-precursor) and their early-stage Guinier–Preston (GP-η{sub p}) zones. The two coexisting classes of precipitates correspond to two precipitation scenarios. - Highlights: • We determine and verify all the key precipitate structures in AlMgZn(Cu) alloys. • We employ aberration-corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM). • We use aberration-corrected high-resolution TEM (HRTEM) for the investigations. • We obtain atomic-resolution images of the precipitates and model their structures. • We refine all precipitate structures with quantitative image simulation analysis. • The hardening precipitates in AlZnMg alloys shall be classified into two groups. • Two precipitation scenarios coexist in the alloys. • The precipitation behavior of such an alloy depends on the alloy's composition. • Very detailed phase/structure transformations among the precipitates are revealed.

  7. Alkali-metal/alkaline-earth-metal fluorine beryllium borate NaSr{sub 3}Be{sub 3}B{sub 3}O{sub 9}F{sub 4} with large nonlinear optical properties in the deep-ultraviolet region

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reshak, A. H.; Huang, Hongwei; Kamarudin, H.; Auluck, S.

    2015-02-28

    The linear optical response and second harmonic generation (SHG) in alkali-metal/alkaline-earth-metal fluorine beryllium borate NaSr{sub 3}Be{sub 3}B{sub 3}O{sub 9}F{sub 4} are investigated by means of density functional theory. Calculations are performed using four types of exchange correlations: Ceperley-Alder local density approximation, Perdew Burke and Ernzerhof general gradient approximation, Engel-Vosko generalized gradient approximation, and the recently modified Becke-Johnson potential (mBJ). The mBJ approach brings the calculated band gap (7.20 eV) in excellent agreement with the experimental one (7.28 eV). The calculated values of the uniaxial anisotropy δε=−0.076 and the birefringence Δn(0)=0.052 indicate considerable anisotropy in the linear optical properties, which makes it favorable for the second harmonic generation. The dominant component of the second harmonic generation is χ{sub 111}{sup (2)}(ω). The value of |χ{sub 111}{sup (2)}(ω)| is about 1.2 pm/V at λ = 1064 nm in agreement with previous calculations. To analyze the origin of the high SHG of NaSr{sub 3}Be{sub 3}B{sub 3}O{sub 9}F{sub 4} single crystals, we have correlated the features of |χ{sub 111}{sup (2)}(ω)| spectra with the features of ε{sub 2}(ω) spectra as a function of ω/2 and ω. From the calculated dominant component |χ{sub 111}{sup (2)}(ω)|, we find that the microscopic first hyperpolarizability, β{sub 111}, the vector components along the dipole moment direction is 0.5 × 10{sup −30} esu at static limit and 0.6 × 10{sup −30} esu at λ = 1064 nm.

  8. A Qualitative Assessment of Diversion Scenarios for an Example Sodium Fast Reactor Using the GEN IV PR&PP Methodology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zentner, Michael D.; Coles, Garill A.; Therios, Ike

    2012-01-20

    FAST REACTORS;NUCLEAR ENERGY;NUCLEAR MATERIALS MANAGEMENT;PROLIFERATION;SAFEGUARDS;THEFT; A working group was created in 2002 by the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) for the purpose of developing an internationally accepted methodology for assessing the Proliferation Resistance of a nuclear energy system (NES) and its individual elements. A two year case study is being performed by the experts group using this methodology to assess the proliferation resistance of a hypothetical NES called the Example Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR). This work demonstrates how the PR and PP methodology can be used to provide important information at various levels of details to NES designers, safeguard administrators and decision makers. The study analyzes the response of the complete ESFR nuclear energy system to different proliferation and theft strategies. The challenges considered include concealed diversion, concealed misuse and 'break out' strategies. This paper describes the work done in performing a qualitative assessment of concealed diversion scenarios from the ESFR.

  9. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Rockhold, Mark L.; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2007-07-30

    This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model based on its apparent consistency with available knowledge and data. Posterior model probabilities are computed and parameter uncertainty is estimated by calibrating each model to observed system behavior; prior parameter estimates are optionally included. Scenario uncertainty is represented as a discrete set of alternative future conditions affecting boundary conditions, source/sink terms, or other aspects of the models, with associated prior scenario probabilities. A joint assessment of uncertainty results from combining model predictions computed under each scenario using as weight the posterior model and prior scenario probabilities. The uncertainty methodology was applied to modeling of groundwater flow and uranium transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Eight alternative models representing uncertainty in the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties as well as the temporal variability were considered. Two scenarios represent alternative future behavior of the Columbia River adjacent to the site were considered. The scenario alternatives were implemented in the models through the boundary conditions. Results demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to large-scale, detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling and illustrate the benefits of the methodology I providing better estimates of predictive uncertiay8, quantitative results for use in assessing risk, and an improved understanding of the system behavior and the limitations of the models.

  10. Potential effects of four Flaming Gorge Dam hydropower operational scenarios on riparian vegetation of the Green River, Utah and Colorado

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    LaGory, K.E.; Van Lonkhuyzen, R.A.

    1995-06-01

    Four hydropower operational scenarios at Flaming Gorge Dam were evaluated to determine their potential effects on riparian vegetation along the Green River in Utah and Colorado. Data collected in June 1992 indicated that elevation above the river had the largest influence on plant distribution. A lower riparian zone occupied the area between the approximate elevations of 800 and 4,200-cfs flows--the area within the range of hydropower operational releases. The lower zone was dominated by wetland plants such as cattail, common spikerush, coyote willow, juncus, and carex. An upper riparian zone was above the elevation of historical maximum power plant releases from the dam (4,200 cfs), and it generally supported plants adapted to mesic, nonwetland conditions. Common species in the upper zone included box elder, rabbitbrush, grasses, golden aster, and scouring rush. Multispectral aerial videography of the Green River was collected in May and June 1992 to determine the relationship between flow and the areas of water and the riparian zone. From these relationships, it was estimated that the upper zone would decrease in extent by about 5% with year-round high fluctuation, seasonally adjusted high fluctuation, and seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuation, but it would increase by about 8% under seasonally adjusted steady flow. The lower zone would increase by about 13% for both year-round and seasonally adjusted high fluctuation scenarios but would decrease by about 40% and 74% for seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuation and steady flows, respectively. These changes are considered to be relatively minor and would leave pre-dam riparian vegetation unaffected. Occasional high releases above power plant capacity would be needed for long-term maintenance of this relict vegetation.

  11. EVOLUTION OF POST-IMPACT REMNANT HELIUM STARS IN TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA REMNANTS WITHIN THE SINGLE-DEGENERATE SCENARIO

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pan, Kuo-Chuan; Ricker, Paul M.; Taam, Ronald E. E-mail: pmricker@illinois.edu

    2013-08-10

    The progenitor systems of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are still under debate. Based on recent hydrodynamics simulations, non-degenerate companions in the single-degenerate scenario (SDS) should survive the supernova (SN) impact. One way to distinguish between the SDS and the double-degenerate scenario is to search for the post-impact remnant stars (PIRSs) in SN Ia remnants. Using a technique that combines multi-dimensional hydrodynamics simulations with one-dimensional stellar evolution simulations, we have examined the post-impact evolution of helium-rich binary companions in the SDS. It is found that these helium-rich PIRSs (He PIRSs) dramatically expand and evolve to a luminous phase (L {approx} 10{sup 4} L{sub Sun }) about 10 yr after an SN explosion. Subsequently, they contract and evolve to become hot blue-subdwarf-like (sdO-like) stars by releasing gravitational energy, persisting as sdO-like stars for several million years before evolving to the helium red-giant phase. We therefore predict that a luminous OB-like star should be detectable within {approx}30 yr after the SN explosion. Thereafter, it will shrink and become an sdO-like star in the central regions of SN Ia remnants within star-forming regions for SN Ia progenitors evolved via the helium-star channel in the SDS. These He PIRSs are predicted to be rapidly rotating (v{sub rot} {approx}> 50 km s{sup -1}) and to have high spatial velocities (v{sub linear} {approx}> 500 km s{sup -1}). Furthermore, if SN remnants have diffused away and are not recognizable at a later stage, He PIRSs could be an additional source of single sdO stars and/or hypervelocity stars.

  12. PhotoVoltaic distributed generation for Lanai power grid real-time simulation and control integration scenario.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robinett, Rush D., III; Kukolich, Keith; Wilson, David Gerald; Schenkman, Benjamin L.

    2010-06-01

    This paper discusses the modeling, analysis, and testing in a real-time simulation environment of the Lanai power grid system for the integration and control of PhotoVoltaic (PV) distributed generation. The Lanai Island in Hawaii is part of the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) to transition to 30% renewable green energy penetration by 2030. In Lanai the primary loads come from two Castle and Cook Resorts, in addition to residential needs. The total peak load profile is 12470 V, 5.5 MW. Currently there are several diesel generators that meet these loading requirements. As part of the HCEI, Lanai has initially installed 1.2 MW of PV generation. The goal of this study has been to evaluate the impact of the PV with respect to the conventional carbon-based diesel generation in real time simulation. For intermittent PV distributed generation, the overall stability and transient responses are investigated. A simple Lanai 'like' model has been developed in the Matlab/Simulink environment (see Fig. 1) and to accommodate real-time simulation of the hybrid power grid system the Opal-RT Technologies RT-Lab environment is used. The diesel generators have been modelled using the SimPowerSystems toolbox swing equations and a custom Simulink module has been developed for the High level PV generation. All of the loads have been characterized primarily as distribution lines with series resistive load banks with one VAR load bank. Three-phase faults are implemented for each bus. Both conventional and advanced control architectures will be used to evaluate the integration of the PV onto the current power grid system. The baseline numerical results include the stable performance of the power grid during varying cloud cover (PV generation ramping up/down) scenarios. The importance of assessing the real-time scenario is included.

  13. Biomass Scenario Model

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Feedstock demand Oil prices Learning curves Evolution of Supply Chain for Biofuels Goals and ... Technical Approach Biofuel Pathways in the BSM 9 Management Approach Modeling and ...

  14. Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, May; Zhang, Zhonglong

    2015-09-01

    Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was clearly attributable to the conversion of a large amount of land to switchgrass. The Middle Lower Missouri River and Lower Missouri River were identified as hot regions. Further analysis identified four subbasins (10240002, 10230007, 10290402, and 10300200) as being the most vulnerable in terms of sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loadings. Overall, results suggest that increasing the amount of switchgrass acreage in the hot spots should be considered to mitigate the nutrient loads. The study provides an analytical method to support stakeholders in making informed decisions that balance biofuel production and water sustainability.

  15. Water demands for electricity generation in the U.S.: Modeling different scenarios for the water–energy nexus

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Patel, Pralit L.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

    2015-05-01

    Water withdrawal for electricity generation in the United States accounts for approximately half the total freshwater withdrawal. With steadily growing electricity demands, a changing climate, and limited water supplies in many water-scarce states, meeting future energy and water demands poses a significant socio-economic challenge. Employing an integrated modeling approach that can capture the energy-water interactions at regional and national scales is essential to improve our understanding of the key drivers that govern those interactions and the role of national policies. In this study, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a technologically-detailed integrated model of the economy, energy, agriculture and land use, water, and climate systems, was extended to model the electricity and water systems at the state level in the U.S. (GCAM-USA). GCAM-USA was employed to estimate future state-level electricity generation and consumption, and their associated water withdrawals and consumption under a set of six scenarios with extensive details on the generation fuel portfolio, cooling technology mix, and their associated water use intensities. Six scenarios of future water demands of the U.S. electric-sector were explored to investigate the implications of socioeconomics development and growing electricity demands, climate mitigation policy, the transition of cooling systems, electricity trade, and water saving technologies. Our findings include: 1) decreasing water withdrawals and substantially increasing water consumption from both climate mitigation and the conversion from open-loop to closed-loop cooling systems; 2) open trading of electricity benefiting energy scarce yet demand intensive states; 3) within state variability under different driving forces while across state homogeneity under certain driving force ; 4) a clear trade-off between water consumption and withdrawal for the electricity sector in the U.S. The paper discusses this withdrawal-consumption trade-off in the context of current national policies and regulations that favor decreasing withdrawals (increasing consumptive use), and the role of water saving technologies. The highly-resolved nature of this study both geographically and technologically provides a useful platform to address scientific and policy relevant and emerging issues at the heart of the water-energy nexus in the U.S.

  16. An Analysis Of The Impact Of Selected Carbon Capture And Storage Policy Scenarios On The US Fossil-Based Electric Power Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davidson, Casie L.; Dooley, James J.; Dahowski, Robert T.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2003-09-13

    CO2 capture and storage (CCS) is rapidly emerging as a potential key climate change mitigation option. However, as policymakers and industrial stakeholders begin the process of formulating new policy for implementing CCS technologies, participants require a tool to assess large-scale CCS deployment over a number of different possible future scenarios. This paper will analyze several scenarios using two state-of-the-art Battelle developed models, the MiniCAM and the CO2-GIS for examining CCS deployment. Outputs include the total amount of CO2 captured, total annual emissions, and fossil-based generating capacity.

  17. Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning. Scenario Case Studies using the Resource Planning Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mai, Trieu; Barrows, Clayton; Lopez, Anthony; Hale, Elaine; Dyson, Mark; Eurek, Kelly

    2015-04-23

    We examine how model investment decisions change under different model configurations and assumptions related to renewable capacity credit, the inclusion or exclusion of operating reserves, dispatch period sampling, transmission power flow modeling, renewable spur line costs, and the ability of a planning region to import and export power. For all modeled scenarios, we find that under market conditions where new renewable deployment is predominantly driven by renewable portfolio standards, model representations of wind and solar capacity credit and interactions between balancing areas are most influential in avoiding model investments in excess thermal capacity. We also compare computation time between configurations to evaluate tradeoffs between computational burden and model accuracy. From this analysis, we find that certain advanced dispatch representations (e.g., DC optimal power flow) can have dramatic adverse effects on computation time but can be largely inconsequential to model investment outcomes, at least at the renewable penetration levels modeled. Finally, we find that certain underappreciated aspects of new capacity investment decisions and model representations thereof, such as spur lines for new renewable capacity, can influence model outcomes particularly in the renewable technology and location chosen by the model. Though this analysis is not comprehensive and results are specific to the model region, input assumptions, and optimization-modeling framework employed, the findings are intended to provide a guide for model improvement opportunities.

  18. Experimental and code simulation of a station blackout scenario for APR1400 with test facility ATLAS and MARS code

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yu, X. G.; Kim, Y. S.; Choi, K. Y.; Park, H. S.; Cho, S.; Kang, K. H.; Choi, N. H.

    2012-07-01

    A SBO (station blackout) experiment named SBO-01 was performed at full-pressure IET (Integral Effect Test) facility ATLAS (Advanced Test Loop for Accident Simulation) which is scaled down from the APR1400 (Advanced Power Reactor 1400 MWe). In this study, the transient of SBO-01 is discussed and is subdivided into three phases: the SG fluid loss phase, the RCS fluid loss phase, and the core coolant depletion and core heatup phase. In addition, the typical phenomena in SBO-01 test - SG dryout, natural circulation, core coolant boiling, the PRZ full, core heat-up - are identified. Furthermore, the SBO-01 test is reproduced by the MARS code calculation with the ATLAS model which represents the ATLAS test facility. The experimental and calculated transients are then compared and discussed. The comparison reveals there was malfunction of equipments: the SG leakage through SG MSSV and the measurement error of loop flow meter. As the ATLAS model is validated against the experimental results, it can be further employed to investigate the other possible SBO scenarios and to study the scaling distortions in the ATLAS. (authors)

  19. Application of ECH to the study of transport in ITER baseline scenario-like discharges in DIII-D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pinsker, R. I.; Austin, M. E.; Ernst, D. R.; Garofalo, A. M.; Grierson, B. A.; Hosea, J. C.; Luce, T. C.; Marinoni, A.; McKee, G. R.; Perkins, R. J.; Petty, C. C.; Porkolab, M.; Rost, J. C.; Schmitz, L.; Solomon, W. M.; Taylor, G.; Turco, F.

    2015-03-12

    Recent DIII-D experiments in the ITER Baseline Scenario (IBS) have shown strong increases in fluctuations and correlated reduction of confinement associated with entering the electron-heating-dominated regime with strong electron cyclotron heating (ECH). The addition of 3.2 MW of 110 GHz EC power deposited at ρ~0.42 to IBS discharges with ~3 MW of neutral beam injection causes large increases in low-k and medium-k turbulent density fluctuations observed with Doppler backscatter (DBS), beam emission spectroscopy (BES) and phase-contrast imaging (PCI) diagnostics, correlated with decreases in the energy, particle, and momentum confinement times. Power balance calculations show the electron heat diffusivity χe increases significantly in the mid-radius region 0.4<ρ<0.8, which is roughly the same region where the DBS and BES diagnostics show the increases in turbulent density fluctuations. Confinement of angular momentum is also reduced during ECH. Studies with the TGYRO transport solver show that the model of turbulent transport embodied in the TGLF code quantitatively reproduces the measured transport in both the neutral beam (NB)-only and in the NB plus EC cases. A simple model of the decrease in toroidal rotation with EC power is set forth, which exhibits a bifurcation in the rotational state of the discharge.

  20. The 'virtual density' principle of neutronics: Toward rapid computation of reactivity effects in practical core distortion scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reed, M.; Smith, K.; Forget, B.

    2013-07-01

    Fast reactor core reactivities are sensitive to geometric distortions arising from three distinct phenomena: (1) irradiation swelling of fuel throughout core lifetime, (2) thermal expansion of fuel during transients, and (3) mechanical oscillations during seismic events. Performing comprehensive reactivity analysis of these distortions requires methods for rapidly computing a multitude of minute reactivity changes. Thus, we introduce the 'virtual density' principle of neutronics as a new perturbation technique to achieve this rapid computation. This new method obviates many of the most challenging aspects of conventional geometric perturbation theory. Essentially, this 'virtual density' principle converts geometric perturbations into equivalent material density perturbations (either isotropic or anisotropic), which are highly accurate and comparatively simple to evaluate. While traditional boundary perturbation theory employs surface integrals, the 'virtual density' principle employs equivalent volume integrals. We introduce and validate this method in three subsequent stages: (1) isotropic 'virtual density', (2) anisotropic 'virtual density' for whole cores, and (3) anisotropic 'virtual density' for interior zones within cores. We numerically demonstrate its accuracy for 2-D core flowering scenarios. (authors)

  1. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Melaina, M. W.; Heath, G.; Sandor, D.; Steward, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Warner, E.; Webster, K. W.

    2013-04-01

    Achieving the Department of Energy target of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 depends on transportation-related strategies combining technology innovation, market adoption, and changes in consumer behavior. This study examines expanding low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure to achieve deep GHG emissions reductions, with an emphasis on fuel production facilities and retail components serving light-duty vehicles. Three distinct low-carbon fuel supply scenarios are examined: Portfolio: Successful deployment of a range of advanced vehicle and fuel technologies; Combustion: Market dominance by hybridized internal combustion engine vehicles fueled by advanced biofuels and natural gas; Electrification: Market dominance by electric drive vehicles in the LDV sector, including battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles, that are fueled by low-carbon electricity and hydrogen. A range of possible low-carbon fuel demand outcomes are explored in terms of the scale and scope of infrastructure expansion requirements and evaluated based on fuel costs, energy resource utilization, fuel production infrastructure expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion for LDVs. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored transportation-related strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence.

  2. Risk-based decision making for staggered bioterrorist attacks : resource allocation and risk reduction in "reload" scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemaster, Michelle Nicole; Gay, David M.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Boggs, Paul T.; Ray, Jaideep

    2009-10-01

    Staggered bioterrorist attacks with aerosolized pathogens on population centers present a formidable challenge to resource allocation and response planning. The response and planning will commence immediately after the detection of the first attack and with no or little information of the second attack. In this report, we outline a method by which resource allocation may be performed. It involves probabilistic reconstruction of the bioterrorist attack from partial observations of the outbreak, followed by an optimization-under-uncertainty approach to perform resource allocations. We consider both single-site and time-staggered multi-site attacks (i.e., a reload scenario) under conditions when resources (personnel and equipment which are difficult to gather and transport) are insufficient. Both communicable (plague) and non-communicable diseases (anthrax) are addressed, and we also consider cases when the data, the time-series of people reporting with symptoms, are confounded with a reporting delay. We demonstrate how our approach develops allocations profiles that have the potential to reduce the probability of an extremely adverse outcome in exchange for a more certain, but less adverse outcome. We explore the effect of placing limits on daily allocations. Further, since our method is data-driven, the resource allocation progressively improves as more data becomes available.

  3. Application of ECH to the study of transport in ITER baseline scenario-like discharges in DIII-D

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pinsker, R. I.; Austin, M. E.; Ernst, D. R.; Garofalo, A. M.; Grierson, B. A.; Hosea, J. C.; Luce, T. C.; Marinoni, A.; McKee, G. R.; Perkins, R. J.; et al

    2015-03-12

    Recent DIII-D experiments in the ITER Baseline Scenario (IBS) have shown strong increases in fluctuations and correlated reduction of confinement associated with entering the electron-heating-dominated regime with strong electron cyclotron heating (ECH). The addition of 3.2 MW of 110 GHz EC power deposited at ρ~0.42 to IBS discharges with ~3 MW of neutral beam injection causes large increases in low-k and medium-k turbulent density fluctuations observed with Doppler backscatter (DBS), beam emission spectroscopy (BES) and phase-contrast imaging (PCI) diagnostics, correlated with decreases in the energy, particle, and momentum confinement times. Power balance calculations show the electron heat diffusivity χe more » increases significantly in the mid-radius region 0.4<ρ<0.8, which is roughly the same region where the DBS and BES diagnostics show the increases in turbulent density fluctuations. Confinement of angular momentum is also reduced during ECH. Studies with the TGYRO transport solver show that the model of turbulent transport embodied in the TGLF code quantitatively reproduces the measured transport in both the neutral beam (NB)-only and in the NB plus EC cases. A simple model of the decrease in toroidal rotation with EC power is set forth, which exhibits a bifurcation in the rotational state of the discharge.« less

  4. Energy technology scenarios for use in water resources assessments under Section 13a of the Federal Nonnuclear Energy Research and Development Act

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1980-10-01

    This document presents two estimates of future growth of emerging energy technology in the years 1985, 1990, and 2000 to be used as a basis for conducting Water Resources Council assessments as required by the Nonnuclear Energy Research and Development Act of 1974. The two scenarios are called the high world oil price (HWOP) and low world oil price (LWOP) cases. A national-level summary of the ASA tabulations is shown in Appendix A; the scenarios are presented at the ASA level of detail in Appendix B. The two scenarios were generally derived from assumptions of the Second National Energy Plant (NEP II), including estimates of high and low world oil price cases, growth rate of GNP, and related economic parameters. The overall national energy growth inherent in these assumptions was expressed as a detailed projection of various energy fuel cycles through use of the Fossil-2 model and regionalized through use of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS). These scenarios are for the use of regional analysts in examining the availability of water for and the potential impacts of future growth of emerging energy technology in selected river basins of the Nation, as required by Section 13(a).

  5. Microsoft Word - Impact_DSR_on_Transmission_Planning_Final.docx

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... decision process 0 500 BAU All Tech with High Natural Gas Price (S7) BAU ... Available online at http:www.osti.govscitechbiblio1126978. Hirst, Eric. 2004. ...

  6. Viability of the matter bounce scenario in F(T) gravity and Loop Quantum Cosmology for general potentials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haro, Jaume; Amors, Jaume E-mail: jaume.amoros@upc.edu

    2014-12-01

    We consider the matter bounce scenario in F(T) gravity and Loop Quantum Cosmology (LQC) for phenomenological potentials that at early times provide a nearly matter dominated Universe in the contracting phase, having a reheating mechanism in the expanding or contracting phase, i.e., being able to release the energy of the scalar field creating particles that thermalize in order to match with the hot Friedmann Universe, and finally at late times leading to the current cosmic acceleration. For these potentials, numerically solving the dynamical perturbation equations we have seen that, for the particular F(T) model that we will name teleparallel version of LQC, and whose modified Friedmann equation coincides with the corresponding one in holonomy corrected LQC when one deals with the flat Friedmann-Lematre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) geometry, the corresponding equations obtained from the well-know perturbed equations in F(T) gravity lead to theoretical results that fit well with current observational data. More precisely, in this teleparallel version of LQC there is a set of solutions which leads to theoretical results that match correctly with last BICEP2 data, and there is another set whose theoretical results fit well with Planck's experimental data. On the other hand, in the standard holonomy corrected LQC, using the perturbed equations obtained replacing the Ashtekar connection by a suitable sinus function and inserting some counter-terms in order to preserve the algebra of constrains, the theoretical value of the tensor/scalar ratio is smaller than in the teleparallel version, which means that there is always a set of solutions that matches with Planck's data, but for some potentials BICEP2 experimental results disfavours holonomy corrected LQC.

  7. Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Marnay, Chris; Stadler, Michael; Lai, Judy; Borgeson, Sam; Coffey, Brian; Azevedo, Ines Lima

    2009-09-01

    In this analysis, the authors projected Japan's energy demand/supply and energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions to 2050. Their analysis of various scenarios indicated that Japan's CO{sub 2} emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 26-58% from the current level (FY 2005). These results suggest that Japan could set a CO{sub 2} emission reduction target for 2050 at between 30% and 60%. In order to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050 from the present level, Japan will have to strongly promote energy conservation at the same pace as an annual rate of 1.9% after the oil crises (to cut primary energy demand per GDP (TPES/GDP) in 2050 by 60% from 2005) and expand the share of non-fossil energy sources in total primary energy supply in 2050 to 50% (to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per primary energy demand (CO{sub 2}/TPES) in 2050 by 40% from 2005). Concerning power generation mix in 2050, nuclear power will account for 60%, solar and other renewable energy sources for 20%, hydro power for 10% and fossil-fired generation for 10%, indicating substantial shift away from fossil fuel in electric power supply. Among the mitigation measures in the case of reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050, energy conservation will make the greatest contribution to the emission reduction, being followed by solar power, nuclear power and other renewable energy sources. In order to realize this massive CO{sub 2} abatement, however, Japan will have to overcome technological and economic challenges including the large-scale deployment of nuclear power and renewable technologies.

  8. Long-Term Global Trade-Offs Related to Nuclear Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1999-08-25

    An overall comparative assessment of different energy systems and their potential long-term role in contributing to a sustainable energy mix is examined through the use of a global, long-term Energy, Economics, Environment (E{sup 3}) model. This model is used to generate a set of surprise-free futures that encompass a range of economic potentialities. The focus of this study is nuclear energy (NE), and the range of possible futures embodies extrema of NE growth [a Basic Option (BO)] to an NE Phase Out (PO). These NE scenario extrema are expressed against a background that reflects E{sup 3} circumstances ranging from a Business-As-Usual (BAU) to one that is Ecologically Driven (ED), with the latter emphasizing price-induced reductions in greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions associate with a mix of fossil energy sources. Hence, four ''views-of-the-future'' scenarios emerge to form the framework of this study: BAU/BO, BAU/PO, ED/BO, and ED/PO. Model results ranging from (regional and temporal) primary- and nuclear-energy demands, carbon-dioxide emissions, nuclear-material (plutonium) accumulations and attendant proliferation-risk implications, Gross National Product (GNP) impacts, and a range of technology requirements provide essential input to the subject assessment.

  9. Long-term tradeoffs between nuclear- and fossil-fuel burning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1996-12-31

    A global energy/economics/environmental (E{sup 3}) model has been adapted with a nuclear energy/materials model to understand better {open_quotes}top-level{close_quotes}, long-term trade offs between civilian nuclear power, nuclear-weapons proliferation, fossil-fuel burning, and global economic welfare. Using a {open_quotes}business-as-usual{close_quotes} (BAU) point-of-departure case, economic, resource, proliferation-risk implications of plutonium recycle in LAIRs, greenhouse-gas-mitigating carbon taxes, and a range of nuclear energy costs (capital and fuel) considerations have been examined. After describing the essential elements of the analysis approach being developed to support the Los Alamos Nuclear Vision Project, preliminary examples of parametric variations about the BAU base-case scenario are presented. The results described herein represent a sampling from more extensive results collected in a separate report. The primary motivation here is: (a) to compare the BAU basecase with results from other studies; (b) to model on a regionally resolved global basis long-term (to year {approximately}2100) evolution of plutonium accumulation in a variety of forms under a limited range of fuel-cycle scenarios; and (c) to illustrate a preliminary connectivity between risks associated with nuclear proliferation and fossil-fuel burning (e.g., greenhouse-gas accumulations).

  10. Design Support of an Above Cap-rock Early Detection Monitoring System using Simulated Leakage Scenarios at the FutureGen2.0 Site

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Williams, Mark D.; USA, Richland Washington; Vermuel, Vince R.; USA, Richland Washington; Oostrom, Mart; USA, Richland Washington; Porse, Sean L.; USA, Richland Washington; Thorne, Paul D.; USA, Richland Washington; et al

    2014-12-31

    The FutureGen 2.0 Project will design and build a first-of-its-kind, near-zero emissions coal-fueled power plant with carbon capture and storage (CCS). To assess storage site performance and meet the regulatory requirements of the Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program for CO2 Geologic Sequestration, the FutureGen 2.0 project will implement a suite of monitoring technologies designed to evaluate CO2 mass balance and detect any unforeseen loss in CO2 containment. The monitoring program will include direct monitoring of the reservoir, and early-leak-detection monitoring directly above the primary confining zone. This preliminary modeling study described here focuses on hypothetical leakage scenarios intomore » the first permeable unit above the primary confining zone (Ironton Sandstone) and is used to support assessment of early-leak detection capabilities. Future updates of the model will be used to assess potential impacts on the lowermost underground source of drinking water (Saint Peter Sandstone) for a range of theoretical leakage scenarios. This preliminary modeling evaluation considers both pressure response and geochemical signals in the overlying Ironton Sandstone. This model is independent of the FutureGen 2.0 reservoir model in that it does not simulate caprock discontinuities, faults, or failure scenarios. Instead this modeling effort is based on theoretical, volumetric-rate based leakage scenarios. The scenarios include leakage of 1% of the total injected CO2 mass, but spread out over different time periods (20, 100, and 500 years) with each case yielding a different mass flux (i.e., smaller mass fluxes for longer duration leakage cases]. A brine leakage scenario using a volumetric leakage similar to the 20 year 1% CO2 case was also considered. A framework for the comparison of the various cases was developed based on the exceedance of selected pressure and geochemical thresholds at different distances from the point of leakage and at different vertical positions within the Ironton Sandstone. These preliminary results, and results from an updated models that incorporate additional site-specific characterization data, support development/refinement of the monitoring system design.« less

  11. Hydrogen Scenario Analysis Summary Report: Analysis of the Transition to Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and the Potential Hydrogen Energy Infrastructure Requirements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, David L; Leiby, Paul Newsome; James, Brian; Perez, Julie; Melendez, Margo; Milbrandt, Anelia; Unnasch, Stefan; Rutherford, Daniel; Hooks, Matthew

    2008-03-01

    Achieving a successful transition to hydrogen-powered vehicles in the U.S. automotive market will require strong and sustained commitment by hydrogen producers, vehicle manufacturers, transporters and retailers, consumers, and governments. The interaction of these agents in the marketplace will determine the real costs and benefits of early market transformation policies, and ultimately the success of the transition itself. The transition to hydrogen-powered transportation faces imposing economic barriers. The challenges include developing and refining a new and different power-train technology, building a supporting fuel infrastructure, creating a market for new and unfamiliar vehicles, and achieving economies of scale in vehicle production while providing an attractive selection of vehicle makes and models for car-buyers. The upfront costs will be high and could persist for a decade or more, delaying profitability until an adequate number of vehicles can be produced and moved into consumer markets. However, the potential rewards to the economy, environment, and national security are immense. Such a profound market transformation will require careful planning and strong, consistent policy incentives. Section 811 of the Energy Policy Act (EPACT) of 2005, Public Law 109-59 (U.S. House, 2005), calls for a report from the Secretary of Energy on measures to support the transition to a hydrogen economy. The report was to specifically address production and deployment of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and the hydrogen production and delivery infrastructure needed to support those vehicles. In addition, the 2004 report of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS, 2004), The Hydrogen Economy, contained two recommendations for analyses to be conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to strengthen hydrogen energy transition and infrastructure planning for the hydrogen economy. In response to the EPACT requirement and NAS recommendations, DOE's Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies Program (HFCIT) has supported a series of analyses to evaluate alternative scenarios for deployment of millions of hydrogen fueled vehicles and supporting infrastructure. To ensure that these alternative market penetration scenarios took into consideration the thinking of the automobile manufacturers, energy companies, industrial hydrogen suppliers, and others from the private sector, DOE held several stakeholder meetings to explain the analyses, describe the models, and solicit comments about the methods, assumptions, and preliminary results (U.S. DOE, 2006a). The first stakeholder meeting was held on January 26, 2006, to solicit guidance during the initial phases of the analysis; this was followed by a second meeting on August 9-10, 2006, to review the preliminary results. A third and final meeting was held on January 31, 2007, to discuss the final analysis results. More than 60 hydrogen energy experts from industry, government, national laboratories, and universities attended these meetings and provided their comments to help guide DOE's analysis. The final scenarios attempt to reflect the collective judgment of the participants in these meetings. However, they should not be interpreted as having been explicitly endorsed by DOE or any of the stakeholders participating. The DOE analysis examined three vehicle penetration scenarios: Scenario 1--Production of thousands of vehicles per year by 2015 and hundreds of thousands per year by 2019. This option is expected to lead to a market penetration of 2.0 million fuel cell vehicles (FCV) by 2025. Scenario 2--Production of thousands of FCVs by 2013 and hundreds of thousands by 2018. This option is expected to lead to a market penetration of 5.0 million FCVs by 2025. Scenario 3--Production of thousands of FCVs by 2013, hundreds of thousands by 2018, and millions by 2021 such that market penetration is 10 million by 2025. Scenario 3 was formulated to comply with the NAS recommendation: 'DOE should map out and evaluate a transition plan consistent with developing the infrastructure and hydrogen resources necessary to support the committee's hydrogen vehicle penetration scenario, or another similar demand scenario (NAS, 2004, p. 4).' Each of the scenarios was extensively discussed at the stakeholder meetings and each received support from industry. Although there was no consensus on a particular vehicle penetration rate, it was agreed that this set of scenarios is inclusive of industry expectations and could provide a basis to interpolate or extrapolate the results to other cases. The purpose of the DOE study was not to select any one scenario but to assess the costs and impacts of achieving each.

  12. Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study. Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses: Main Text and Appendices A, B, C, D, and F

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plotkin, Steve; Singh, Margaret; Patterson, Phil; Ward, Jake; Wood, Frances; Kydes, Niko; Holte, John; Moore, Jim; Miller, Grant; Das, Sujit; Greene, David

    2009-07-22

    This report provides details for Phase 2 of the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study, which compares alternative ways to make significant reductions in oil use and carbon emissions from U.S. light vehicles to 2050. Phase I, completed in 2009, examined the full range of pathways of interest to EERE, with multiple scenarios aimed at revealing the issues and impacts associated with a national effort to reduce U.S. dependence on oil use in transportation. Phase 2 expanded the scope of the analysis by examining the interactive effects of multiple pathways on each other and on oil and feedstock prices, focusing far more on costs; and substantially increasing the number of metrics used to compare pathways and scenarios.

  13. Implications of Model Configurations on Capacity Planning Decisions: Scenario Case Studies of the Western Interconnection and Colorado Region using the Resource Planning Model

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    In this report, we analyze the impacts of model configuration and detail in capacity expansion models, computational tools used by utility planners looking to find the least cost option for planning the system and by researchers or policy makers attempting to understand the effects of various policy implementations. The present analysis focuses on the importance of model configurations—particularly those related to capacity credit, dispatch modeling, and transmission modeling—to the construction of scenario futures. Our analysis is primarily directed toward advanced tools used for utility planning and is focused on those impacts that are most relevant to decisions with respect to future renewable capacity deployment. To serve this purpose, we develop and employ the NREL Resource Planning Model to conduct a case study analysis that explores 12 separate capacity expansion scenarios of the Western Interconnection through 2030.

  14. Hydrogen Pathways: Updated Cost, Well-to-Wheels Energy Use, and Emissions for the Current Technology Status of Ten Hydrogen Production, Delivery, and Distribution Scenarios

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Hydrogen Pathways Updated Cost, Well-to-Wheels Energy Use, and Emissions for the Current Technology Status of Ten Hydrogen Production, Delivery, and Distribution Scenarios T. Ramsden, M. Ruth, V. Diakov National Renewable Energy Laboratory M. Laffen, T.A. Timbario Alliance Technical Services, Inc. Technical Report NREL/TP-6A10-60528 March 2013 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable

  15. An Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario (Report Summary) (Presentation), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    An Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario (Report Summary) Paul Denholm, Yih-Huei Wan, Marissa Hummon, Mark Mehos March 2013 NREL/PR-6A20-58470 2 Motivation * Implement concentrating solar power (CSP) with thermal energy storage (TES) in a commercial production cost model o Develop approaches that can be used by utilities and system planners to incorporate CSP in standard planning tools * Evaluate the optimal dispatch of CSP with

  16. What does the 2C Target Imply for a Global Climate Agreement in 2020? The LIMITS Study on Durban Action Platform Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Tavoni, Massimo; Aboumahboub, Tino; Luderer, Gunnar; Calvin, Katherine V.; DeMaere, Gauthier; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Rosler, Hilke; Schaeffer, Michiel; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2013-11-01

    This paper provides a novel and comprehensive model?based assessment of possible outcomes of the Durban Platform negotiations with a focus on emissions reduction requirements, the consistency with the 2C target and global economic impacts. The Durban Action scenarios investigated in the LIMITS studyall assuming the implementation of comprehensive global emission reductions after 2020, but assuming different 2020 emission reduction levels and different long?term stabilization targetsshow that the probability of exceeding the 2C limit increases with stabilization target from below one third for 450?470 ppm to 40?60% for 490?510 ppm in 2100. Global time?averaged economic costs of the Durban Action scenarios are limited across models, and are largely unaffected by the stringency of 2020 pledges. By contrast, the economic impact of delaying action beyond 2030 is much stronger on transitional costs. The main significance of short term action in the period 2010?2030 lies in preparing the ground for steep emissions reductions thereafter by inducing global emissions to peak and decline. The institutional challenges of all scenarios with fragmented near?term climate policy can be expected to be high as reflected in a steep rise of carbon prices and decarbonization rates until 2040. We conclude that an agreement on comprehensive emissions reductions to be implemented from 2020 onwards has particular significance for meeting long term climate policy objectives.

  17. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-12-01

    The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’s and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are represented, in addition to the extensive data compiled from recent studies on bottom-up representation of efficiency measures for the sector. We also defined various mitigation scenarios including long-term production trends to project country-specific production, energy use, trading, carbon emissions, and costs of mitigation. Such analyses can provide useful information to assist policy-makers when considering and shaping future emissions mitigation strategies and policies. The technical objective is to analyze the costs of production and CO{sub 2} emission reduction in the U.S, China, and India’s iron and steel sectors under different emission reduction scenarios, using the ISEEM-IS as a cost optimization model. The scenarios included in this project correspond to various CO{sub 2} emission reduction targets for the iron and steel sector under different strategies such as simple CO{sub 2} emission caps (e.g., specific reduction goals), emission reduction via commodity trading, and emission reduction via carbon trading.

  18. Policy Options for Encouraging Energy Efficiency Best Practices in Shandong Province's Cement Industry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Price, Lynn; Zhou, Nan; Lu, Hongyou; Sambeek, Emiel van; Yowargana, Ping; Shuang, Liu; Kejun, Jiang

    2012-07-12

    This research intends to explore possible design options for a sectoral approach in the cement sector in Shandong Province and to consider its respective advantages and disadvantages for future application. An effort has been made in this research to gather and analyze data that will provide a transparent and robust basis for development of a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, maximum technology potential scenario, and ultimately a sector crediting baseline. Surveys among cement companies and discussions with stakeholders were also conducted in order to better understand the industry and local needs related to the sectoral approach.

  19. Fast-ion transport in q{sub min}>2, high-β steady-state scenarios on DIII-D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Holcomb, C. T.; Heidbrink, W. W.; Collins, C.; Ferron, J. R.; Van Zeeland, M. A.; Garofalo, A. M.; Bass, E. M.; Luce, T. C.; Pace, D. C.; Solomon, W. M.; Mueller, D.; Grierson, B.; Podesta, M.; Gong, X.; Ren, Q.; Park, J. M.; Kim, K.; Turco, F.

    2015-05-15

    Results from experiments on DIII-D [J. L. Luxon, Fusion Sci. Technol. 48, 828 (2005)] aimed at developing high β steady-state operating scenarios with high-q{sub min} confirm that fast-ion transport is a critical issue for advanced tokamak development using neutral beam injection current drive. In DIII-D, greater than 11 MW of neutral beam heating power is applied with the intent of maximizing β{sub N} and the noninductive current drive. However, in scenarios with q{sub min}>2 that target the typical range of q{sub 95}= 5–7 used in next-step steady-state reactor models, Alfvén eigenmodes cause greater fast-ion transport than classical models predict. This enhanced transport reduces the absorbed neutral beam heating power and current drive and limits the achievable β{sub N}. In contrast, similar plasmas except with q{sub min} just above 1 have approximately classical fast-ion transport. Experiments that take q{sub min}>3 plasmas to higher β{sub P} with q{sub 95}= 11–12 for testing long pulse operation exhibit regimes of better than expected thermal confinement. Compared to the standard high-q{sub min} scenario, the high β{sub P} cases have shorter slowing-down time and lower ∇β{sub fast}, and this reduces the drive for Alfvénic modes, yielding nearly classical fast-ion transport, high values of normalized confinement, β{sub N}, and noninductive current fraction. These results suggest DIII-D might obtain better performance in lower-q{sub 95}, high-q{sub min} plasmas using broader neutral beam heating profiles and increased direct electron heating power to lower the drive for Alfvén eigenmodes.

  20. Harmonization of Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100: 600 Years of Global Gridded Annual Land-Use Transitions, Wood Harvest, and Resulting Secondary Lands

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve; Betts, Richard; Feddema, Johannes; Fischer, Gavin M.; Fisk, J.P.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Houghton, R. A.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Jones, C.; Kindermann, G.; Kinoshita, Tsuguki; Goldeweijk, Kees K.; Riahi, Keywan; Shevliakova, Elena; Smith, Steven J.; Stehfest, Eike; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, P.; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wang, Y.

    2011-08-08

    In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESM) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al., 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs.

  1. A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Race, Caitlin; Steinbach, Michael; Ganguly, Auroop R; Semazzi, Fred; Kumar, Vipin

    2010-01-01

    The connections among greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, global warming, and frequencies of hurricanes or tropical cyclones are among the least understood in climate science but among the most fiercely debated in the context of adaptation decisions or mitigation policies. Here we show that a knowledge discovery strategy, which leverages observations and climate model simulations, offers the promise of developing credible projections of tropical cyclones based on sea surface temperatures (SST) in a warming environment. While this study motivates the development of new methodologies in statistics and data mining, the ability to solve challenging climate science problems with innovative combinations of traditional and state-of-the-art methods is demonstrated. Here we develop new insights, albeit in a proof-of-concept sense, on the relationship between sea surface temperatures and hurricane frequencies, and generate the most likely projections with uncertainty bounds for storm counts in the 21st-century warming environment based in turn on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our preliminary insights point to the benefits that can be achieved for climate science and impacts analysis, as well as adaptation and mitigation policies, by a solution strategy that remains tailored to the climate domain and complements physics-based climate model simulations with a combination of existing and new computational and data science approaches.

  2. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    2015-05-01

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive.

  3. Next Generation Safeguards Initiative: Analysis of Probability of Detection of Plausible Diversion Scenarios at Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants Using Advanced Safeguards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hase, Kevin R.; Hawkins Erpenbeck, Heather; Boyer, Brian D.

    2012-07-10

    Over the last decade, efforts by the safeguards community, including inspectorates, governments, operators and owners of centrifuge facilities, have given rise to new possibilities for safeguards approaches in enrichment plants. Many of these efforts have involved development of new instrumentation to measure uranium mass and uranium-235 enrichment and inspection schemes using unannounced and random site inspections. We have chosen select diversion scenarios and put together a reasonable system of safeguards equipment and safeguards approaches and analyzed the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed safeguards approach by predicting the probability of detection of diversion in the chosen safeguards approaches. We analyzed the effect of redundancy in instrumentation, cross verification of operator instrumentation by inspector instrumentation, and the effects of failures or anomalous readings on verification data. Armed with these esults we were able to quantify the technical cost benefit of the addition of certain instrument suites and show the promise of these new systems.

  4. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Value Proposition Study: Phase 1, Task 3: Technical Requirements and Procedure for Evaluation of One Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sikes, Karen R; Hinds, Shaun; Hadley, Stanton W; McGill, Ralph N; Markel, Lawrence C; Ziegler, Richard E; Smith, David E; Smith, Richard L; Greene, David L; Brooks, Daniel L; Wiegman, Herman; Miller, Nicholas; Marano, Dr. Vincenzo

    2008-07-01

    In Task 2, the project team designed the Phase 1 case study to represent the 'baseline' plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) fleet of 2030 that investigates the effects of seventeen (17) value propositions (see Table 1 for complete list). By creating a 'baseline' scenario, a consistent set of assumptions and model parameters can be established for use in more elaborate Phase 2 case studies. The project team chose southern California as the Phase 1 case study location because the economic, environmental, social, and regulatory conditions are conducive to the advantages of PHEVs. Assuming steady growth of PHEV sales over the next two decades, PHEVs are postulated to comprise approximately 10% of the area's private vehicles (about 1,000,000 vehicles) in 2030. New PHEV models introduced in 2030 are anticipated to contain lithium-ion batteries and be classified by a blended mileage description (e.g., 100 mpg, 150 mpg) that demonstrates a battery size equivalence of a PHEV-30. Task 3 includes the determination of data, models, and analysis procedures required to evaluate the Phase 1 case study scenario. Some existing models have been adapted to accommodate the analysis of the business model and establish relationships between costs and value to the respective consumers. Other data, such as the anticipated California generation mix and southern California drive cycles, have also been gathered for use as inputs. The collection of models that encompasses the technical, economic, and financial aspects of Phase 1 analysis has been chosen and is described in this deliverable. The role of PHEV owners, utilities (distribution systems, generators, independent system operators (ISO), aggregators, or regional transmission operators (RTO)), facility owners, financing institutions, and other third parties are also defined.

  5. A Literary Human Exinction Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tonn, Bruce Edward

    2009-11-01

    Mary Wollstonecraft Shelly's (MWS) novel, The Last Man, published in 1826, is an epic narrative about the destruction of the human race. This paper provides a synopsis of this book and assesses its relationships to contemporary future studies. The paper also delves into the history of apocalyptic writing and thinking, using this book an entry point to past literature.

  6. STELLAR KINEMATICS AND STRUCTURAL PROPERTIES OF VIRGO CLUSTER DWARF EARLY-TYPE GALAXIES FROM THE SMAKCED PROJECT. III. ANGULAR MOMENTUM AND CONSTRAINTS ON FORMATION SCENARIOS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Toloba, E.; Guhathakurta, P.; Peletier, R. F.; Emsellem, E.; Lisker, T.; Van de Ven, G.; Simon, J. D.; Adams, J. J.; Benson, A. J.; Falcón-Barroso, J.; Ryś, A.; Gorgas, J.; Hensler, G.; Janz, J.; Laurikainen, E.; Salo, H.; Paudel, S.

    2015-02-01

    We analyze the stellar kinematics of 39 dwarf early-type galaxies (dEs) in the Virgo Cluster. Based on the specific stellar angular momentum λ{sub Re} and the ellipticity, we find 11 slow rotators and 28 fast rotators. The fast rotators in the outer parts of the Virgo Cluster rotate significantly faster than fast rotators in the inner parts of the cluster. Moreover, 10 out of the 11 slow rotators are located in the inner 3° (D < 1 Mpc) of the cluster. The fast rotators contain subtle disk-like structures that are visible in high-pass filtered optical images, while the slow rotators do not exhibit these structures. In addition, two of the dEs have kinematically decoupled cores and four more have emission partially filling in the Balmer absorption lines. These properties suggest that Virgo Cluster dEs may have originated from late-type star-forming galaxies that were transformed by the environment after their infall into the cluster. The correlation between λ{sub Re} and the clustercentric distance can be explained by a scenario where low luminosity star-forming galaxies fall into the cluster, their gas is rapidly removed by ram-pressure stripping, although some of it can be retained in their core, their star formation is quenched but their stellar kinematics are preserved. After a long time in the cluster and several passes through its center, the galaxies are heated up and transformed into slow rotating dEs.

  7. Table 3b. Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Nominal Dollars" " (nominal dollars per barrel)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO

  8. Table 3b. Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Nominal Dollars (nominal dollars per barrel) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 17.06 17.21 18.24 19.43 20.64 22.12 23.76 25.52 27.51 29.67 31.86 34.00 36.05 38.36 40.78 43.29 45.88 48.37 AEO 1995 15.24 17.27 18.23 19.26 20.39 21.59 22.97 24.33 25.79 27.27 28.82 30.38 32.14 33.89 35.85 37.97 40.28 AEO 1996 17.16 17.74 18.59

  9. DOE O 413.3B Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Decommissioning | Department of Energy Environmental Management Strategy and Experience for In-Situ Decommissioning DOE Environmental Management Strategy and Experience for In-Situ Decommissioning In situ decommissioning (ISD) is the permanent entombment of a contaminated facility. At present, ISD is not recognized or addressed in the Department of Energy (DOE) and Office of Environmental Management (EM) lexicon; however, ISD is not a revolutionary concept. Since the 1970s, the U.S. Nuclear

  10. Microsoft PowerPoint - DOE O 413 3B Brief v9 with key points...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    ... use 25% (best practice used by DoD and NASA) *Funding profile must be approved by AE ... a cost growth trigger of 25% (DoD and NASA best practice) DoD routinely reaffirms ...

  11. DOE_CX-00111-Rev3-B1.3.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  12. DOE_CX-00112-Rev3-B1.4.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  13. DOE_CX-00113-Rev3-B1.15.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  14. DOE_CX-00114-Rev3-B1.16.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  15. DOE_CX-00115-Rev3-B1.17.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  16. DOE_CX-00116-Rev3-B1.22.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  17. DOE_CX-00117-Rev3-B1.27.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  18. DOE_CX-00118-Rev3-B1.31.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  19. DOE_CX-00119-Rev3-B1.32.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  20. DOE_CX-00120-Rev3-B1.35.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  1. DOE_CX-00121-Rev3-B2.2.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  2. DOE_CX-00122-Rev3-B2.5.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  3. DOE_CX-00123-Rev3-B3.1.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  4. DOE_CX-00124-Rev3-B3.6.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  5. DOE_CX-00125-Rev3-B5.1.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  6. DOE_CX-00126-Rev3-B5.6.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  7. DOE_CX-00129-Rev3-B6.4.pdf

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

  8. EVMS Training Snippet: 1.1 DOE Order 413.3B EVM Requirements

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This EVMS Training Snippet, sponsored by the Office of Project Management (PM), covers the Department of Energy’s policy relative to Earned Value Management.  

  9. Reference Buildings by Climate Zone and Representative City: 3B Los Angeles, California

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    In addition to the ZIP file for each building type, you can directly view the "scorecard" spreadsheet that summarizes the inputs and results for each location. This Microsoft Excel spreadsheet is also included in the ZIP file. For version 1.4, only the IDF file is included.

  10. Table 3b. Relative Standard Errors for Total Natural Gas Consumption...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    13 13 200,001 to 500,000 11 21 16 16 Over 500,000 15 27 22 23 Principal Building Activity Education 12 11 9 8 Food Sales and Service 8 12 10 9 Health Care 15 21 17 13 Lodging 12 22...

  11. Notice of Intent to Revise DOE Order 470.3B, Graded Security Protection (GSP) Policy

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2015-11-23

    Request approval to revise the subject Order to make significant changes which are required for the Order to be consistent with threat information received from the intelligence community. Information provided by the joint DOE/IN and Defense Intelligence Agency, Nuclear Security Threat Capabilities Assessment, revealed the need to adjust adversary numbers and capabilities to reflect the intent of the policy and the inherent risk management considerations.

  12. Materials Data on TbCo3B2 (SG:191) by Materials Project

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Kristin Persson

    2015-02-09

    Computed materials data using density functional theory calculations. These calculations determine the electronic structure of bulk materials by solving approximations to the Schrodinger equation. For more information, see https://materialsproject.org/docs/calculations

  13. Materials Data on Na3B7O12 (SG:2) by Materials Project

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Kristin Persson

    2014-11-02

    Computed materials data using density functional theory calculations. These calculations determine the electronic structure of bulk materials by solving approximations to the Schrodinger equation. For more information, see https://materialsproject.org/docs/calculations

  14. Materials Data on Mn3B7IO13 (SG:29) by Materials Project

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Kristin Persson

    2014-11-02

    Computed materials data using density functional theory calculations. These calculations determine the electronic structure of bulk materials by solving approximations to the Schrodinger equation. For more information, see https://materialsproject.org/docs/calculations

  15. Materials Data on Ba2(Ni3B2)3 (SG:167) by Materials Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kristin Persson

    2015-03-07

    Computed materials data using density functional theory calculations. These calculations determine the electronic structure of bulk materials by solving approximations to the Schrodinger equation. For more information, see https://materialsproject.org/docs/calculations

  16. Microsoft PowerPoint - Snippet 1.1 DOE O 413.3B EVM Requirements...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    requirements and leading practices for project and acquisition management. The Order applies to capital asset acquisition projects with a Total Project Cost greater than or equal ...

  17. Waste Receiving and Processing Facility Module 2A: Advanced Conceptual Design Report. Volume 3B

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-03-01

    This volume consists of the following sections: WRAP 2A value engineering assessment, resolution of value engineering assessment actions (white paper), HAZOP studies for identifying major safety and operability problems, and time and motion simulation.

  18. Microsoft Word - MicroBooNE CD-3b appr.docx

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    B. Project Description and Scope Baseline The goal of the MicroBooNE experiment is to use ... of future, larger-scale detectors such as for Long Baseline Neutrino Experiment (LBNE). ...

  19. Reference Buildings by Climate Zone and Representative City: 3B Las Vegas, Nevada

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    In addition to the ZIP file for each building type, you can directly view the "scorecard" spreadsheet that summarizes the inputs and results for each location. This Microsoft Excel spreadsheet is also included in the ZIP file. For version 1.4, only the IDF file is included.

  20. Notice of Intent to Revise DOE Order 470.3B, Graded Security Protection (GSP) Policy

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    Request approval to revise the subject Order to make significant changes which are required for the Order to be consistent with threat information received from the intelligence community. Information provided by the joint DOE/IN and Defense Intelligence Agency, Nuclear Security Threat Capabilities Assessment, revealed the need to adjust adversary numbers and capabilities to reflect the intent of the policy and the inherent risk management considerations.

  1. Materials Data on Th3B2C3 (SG:10) by Materials Project

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Kristin Persson

    2015-02-09

    Computed materials data using density functional theory calculations. These calculations determine the electronic structure of bulk materials by solving approximations to the Schrodinger equation. For more information, see https://materialsproject.org/docs/calculations

  2. Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Martinich, Jeremy; Sarofim, Marcus; DeAngelo, B. J.; McFarland, Jim; Jantarasami, Lesley; Shouse, Kate C.; Crimmins, Allison; Ohrel, Sara; Li, Jia

    2015-07-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) modeling exercise is a unique contribution to the scientific literature on climate change impacts, economic damages, and risk analysis that brings together multiple, national-scale models of impacts and damages in an integrated and consistent fashion to estimate climate change impacts, damages, and the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the United States. The CIRA project uses three consistent socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios across all models to estimate the benefits of GHG mitigation policies: a Business As Usual (BAU) and two policy scenarios with radiative forcing (RF) stabilization targets of 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 in 2100. CIRA was also designed to specifically examine the sensitivity of results to uncertainties around climate sensitivity and differences in model structure. The goals of CIRA project are to 1) build a multi-model framework to produce estimates of multiple risks and impacts in the U.S., 2) determine to what degree risks and damages across sectors may be lowered from a BAU to policy scenarios, 3) evaluate key sources of uncertainty along the causal chain, and 4) provide information for multiple audiences and clearly communicate the risks and damages of climate change and the potential benefits of mitigation. This paper describes the motivations, goals, and design of the CIRA modeling exercise and introduces the subsequent papers in this special issue.

  3. Search for Scalar Top Quark Pair-Production in Scenario with Violated R-parity in ppbar Collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ogawa, Takashi

    2005-01-01

    A search for the pair production of supersymmetric partner of the top quark in scenario with R-parity violation is presented. The quantum number called R-parity distinguishes particles in standard model from supersymmetric particles. A scalar top quark (stop) is assumed to decay only via R{sub p}-violating supersymmetric coupling into tau lepton and b-quark. To collect events with multiple taus, a new special tau trigger (the lepton plus track trigger) is installed in Run II experiment of the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF). The goal of the lepton plus track trigger is to collect generic dilepton ({ell}{ell}, {ell}{tau}, {tau}{tau}) events with lower p{sub T} threshold (8 GeV/c) and without prescale even at high luminosity. The Z {yields} {tau}{tau} event, where one {tau}-lepton decays leptonically and the other hadronically, is a good benchmark to calibrate the lepton plus track trigger and {tau} identification. The data sample of 72 pb{sup -1}, collected using the electron plus track trigger, contains clear a {tau} signal from Z {yields} {tau}{tau} events. The data used in stop search correspond to 200 pb{sup -1}. The lower stop mass bound of 134 GeV/c{sup 2} at a 95% confidence level is obtained. This limit is also directly applicable to the case of the third generation scalar leptoquark (LQ{sub 3}) assuming a 100% branching for the LQ{sub 3} {yields} {tau}b decay mode.

  4. Current generation by helicons and LH waves in modern tokamaks and reactors FNSF-AT, ITER and DEMO. Scenarios, modeling and antennae

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vdovin, V.

    2014-02-12

    The Innovative concept and 3D full wave code modeling Off-axis current drive by RF waves in large scale tokamaks, reactors FNSF-AT, ITER and DEMO for steady state operation with high efficiency was proposed [1] to overcome problems well known for LH method [2]. The scheme uses the helicons radiation (fast magnetosonic waves at high (20–40) IC frequency harmonics) at frequencies of 500–1000 MHz, propagating in the outer regions of the plasmas with a rotational transform. It is expected that the current generated by Helicons will help to have regimes with negative magnetic shear and internal transport barrier to ensure stability at high normalized plasma pressure β{sub N} > 3 (the so-called Advanced scenarios) of interest for FNSF and the commercial reactor. Modeling with full wave three-dimensional codes PSTELION and STELEC2 showed flexible control of the current profile in the reactor plasmas of ITER, FNSF-AT and DEMO [2,3], using multiple frequencies, the positions of the antennae and toroidal waves slow down. Also presented are the results of simulations of current generation by helicons in tokamaks DIII-D, T-15MD and JT-60SA [3]. In DEMO and Power Plant antenna is strongly simplified, being some analoge of mirrors based ECRF launcher, as will be shown. For spherical tokamaks the Helicons excitation scheme does not provide efficient Off-axis CD profile flexibility due to strong coupling of helicons with O-mode, also through the boundary conditions in low aspect machines, and intrinsic large amount of trapped electrons, as is shown by STELION modeling for the NSTX tokamak. Brief history of Helicons experimental and modeling exploration in straight plasmas, tokamaks and tokamak based fusion Reactors projects is given, including planned joint DIII-D – Kurchatov Institute experiment on helicons CD [1].

  5. Integrated modeling of CO2 storage and leakage scenarios including transitions between super- and sub-critical conditions, and phase change between liquid and gaseous CO2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pruess, K.

    2011-05-15

    Storage of CO{sub 2} in saline aquifers is intended to be at supercritical pressure and temperature conditions, but CO{sub 2} leaking from a geologic storage reservoir and migrating toward the land surface (through faults, fractures, or improperly abandoned wells) would reach subcritical conditions at depths shallower than 500-750 m. At these and shallower depths, subcritical CO{sub 2} can form two-phase mixtures of liquid and gaseous CO{sub 2}, with significant latent heat effects during boiling and condensation. Additional strongly non-isothermal effects can arise from decompression of gas-like subcritical CO{sub 2}, the so-called Joule-Thomson effect. Integrated modeling of CO{sub 2} storage and leakage requires the ability to model non-isothermal flows of brine and CO{sub 2} at conditions that range from supercritical to subcritical, including three-phase flow of aqueous phase, and both liquid and gaseous CO{sub 2}. In this paper, we describe and demonstrate comprehensive simulation capabilities that can cope with all possible phase conditions in brine-CO{sub 2} systems. Our model formulation includes: (1) an accurate description of thermophysical properties of aqueous and CO{sub 2}-rich phases as functions of temperature, pressure, salinity and CO{sub 2} content, including the mutual dissolution of CO{sub 2} and H{sub 2}O; (2) transitions between super- and subcritical conditions, including phase change between liquid and gaseous CO{sub 2}; (3) one-, two-, and three-phase flow of brine-CO{sub 2} mixtures, including heat flow; (4) non-isothermal effects associated with phase change, mutual dissolution of CO{sub 2} and water, and (de-) compression effects; and (5) the effects of dissolved NaCl, and the possibility of precipitating solid halite, with associated porosity and permeability change. Applications to specific leakage scenarios demonstrate that the peculiar thermophysical properties of CO{sub 2} provide a potential for positive as well as negative feedbacks on leakage rates, with a combination of self-enhancing and self-limiting effects. Lower viscosity and density of CO{sub 2} as compared to aqueous fluids provides a potential for self-enhancing effects during leakage, while strong cooling effects from liquid CO{sub 2} boiling into gas, and from expansion of gas rising towards the land surface, act to self-limit discharges. Strong interference between fluid phases under three-phase conditions (aqueous - liquid CO{sub 2} - gaseous CO{sub 2}) also tends to reduce CO{sub 2} fluxes. Feedback on different space and time scales can induce non-monotonic behavior of CO{sub 2} flow rates.

  6. Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership: An Analysis of How Different Energy Models Addressed a Common High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario in 2025

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blair, N.; Jenkin, T.; Milford, J.; Short, W.; Sullivan, P.; Evans, D.; Lieberman, E.; Goldstein, G.; Wright, E.; Jayaraman, K.; Venkatech, B.; Kleiman, G.; Namovicz, C.; Smith, B.; Palmer, K.; Wiser, R.; Wood, F.

    2009-09-30

    The Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling and Analysis Partnership (REMAP) sponsors ongoing workshops to discuss individual 'renewable' technologies, energy/economic modeling, and - to some extent - policy issues related to renewable energy. Since 2002, the group has organized seven workshops, each focusing on a different renewable technology (geothermal, solar, wind, etc.). These workshops originated and continue to be run under an informal partnership of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE). EPA originally funded the activities, but support is now shared between EPA and EERE. REMAP has a wide range of participating analysts and models/modelers that come from government, the private sector, and academia. Modelers include staff from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), NREL, EPA, Resources for the Future (RFF), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), Regional Economic Models Inc. (REMI), ICF International, OnLocation Inc., and Boston University. The working group has more than 40 members, which also includes representatives from DOE, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), Massachusetts Renewable Energy Trust, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), and ACORE. This report summarizes the activities and findings of the REMAP activity that started in late 2006 with a kickoff meeting, and concluded in mid-2008 with presentations of final results. As the project evolved, the group compared results across models and across technologies rather than just examining a specific technology or activity. The overall goal was to better understand how and why different energy models give similar and/or different answers in response to a set of focused energy-related questions. The focus was on understanding reasons for model differences, not on policy implications, even though a policy of high renewable penetration was used for the analysis. A group process was used to identify the potential question (or questions) to be addressed through the project. In late 2006, increasing renewable energy penetration in the electricity sector was chosen from among several options as the general policy to model. From this framework, the analysts chose a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) as the way to implement the required renewable energy market penetration in the models. An RPS was chosen because it was (i) of interest and represented the group's consensus choice, and (ii) tractable and not too burdensome for the modelers. Because the modelers and analysts were largely using their own resources, it was important to consider the degree of effort required. In fact, several of the modelers who started this process had to discontinue participation because of other demands on their time. Federal and state RPS policy is an area of active political interest and debate. Recognizing this, participants used this exercise to gain insight into energy model structure and performance. The results are not intended to provide any particular insight into policy design or be used for policy advocacy, and participants are not expected to form a policy stance based on the outcomes of the modeling. The goals of this REMAP project - in terms of the main topic of renewable penetration - were to: (1) Compare models and understand why they may give different results to the same question, (2) Improve the rigor and consistency of assumptions used across models, and (3) Evaluate the ability of models to measure the impacts of high renewable-penetration scenarios.

  7. Large-Scale Utilization of Biomass Energy and Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in the Transport and Electricity Sectors under Stringent CO2 Concentration Limit Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Luckow, Patrick; Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.

    2010-08-05

    This paper examines the potential role of large scale, dedicated commercial biomass energy systems under global climate policies designed to meet atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at 400ppm and 450ppm by the end of the century. We use an integrated assessment model of energy and agriculture systems to show that, given a climate policy in which terrestrial carbon is appropriately valued equally with carbon emitted from the energy system, biomass energy has the potential to be a major component of achieving these low concentration targets. A key aspect of the research presented here is that the costs of processing and transporting biomass energy at much larger scales than current experience are explicitly incorporated into the modeling. From the scenario results, 120-160 EJ/year of biomass energy is produced globally by midcentury and 200-250 EJ/year by the end of this century. In the first half of the century, much of this biomass is from agricultural and forest residues, but after 2050 dedicated cellulosic biomass crops become the majority source, along with growing utilization of waste-to-energy. The ability to draw on a diverse set of biomass based feedstocks helps to reduce the pressure for drastic large-scale changes in land use and the attendant environmental, ecological, and economic consequences those changes would unleash. In terms of the conversion of bioenergy feedstocks into value added energy, this paper demonstrates that biomass is and will continue to be used to generate electricity as well as liquid transportation fuels. A particular focus of this paper is to show how climate policies and technology assumptions - especially the availability of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies - affect the decisions made about where the biomass is used in the energy system. The potential for net-negative electric sector emissions through the use of CCS with biomass feedstocks provides an attractive part of the solution for meeting stringent emissions constraints; we find that at carbon prices above 150$/tCO2, over 90% of biomass in the energy system is used in combination with CCS. Despite the higher technology costs of CCS, it is a very important tool in controlling the cost of meeting a target, offsetting the venting of CO2 from sectors of the energy system that may be more expensive to mitigate, such as oil use in transportation. CCS is also used heavily with other fuels such as coal and natural gas, and by 2095 a total of 1530 GtCO2 has been stored in deep geologic reservoirs. The paper also discusses the role of cellulosic ethanol and Fischer-Tropsch biomass derived transportation fuels as two representative conversion processes and shows that both technologies may be important contributors to liquid fuels production, with unique costs and emissions characteristics.

  8. SCENARIOS FOR DEEP CARBON EMISSION REDUCTIONS FROM ELECTRICITY BY 2050 IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA USING THE SWITCH ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR PLANNING MODEL California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume II

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel; Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    This study used a state-of-the-art planning model called SWITCH for the electric power system to investigate the evolution of the power systems of California and western North America from present-day to 2050 in the context of deep decarbonization of the economy. Researchers concluded that drastic power system carbon emission reductions were feasible by 2050 under a wide range of possible futures. The average cost of power in 2050 would range between $149 to $232 per megawatt hour across scenarios, a 21 to 88 percent increase relative to a business-as-usual scenario, and a 38 to 115 percent increase relative to the present-day cost of power. The power system would need to undergo sweeping change to rapidly decarbonize. Between present-day and 2030 the evolution of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council power system was dominated by implementing aggressive energy efficiency measures, installing renewable energy and gas-fired generation facilities and retiring coal-fired generation. Deploying wind, solar and geothermal power in the 2040 timeframe reduced power system emissions by displacing gas-fired generation. This trend continued for wind and solar in the 2050 timeframe but was accompanied by large amounts of new storage and long-distance high-voltage transmission capacity. Electricity storage was used primarily to move solar energy from the daytime into the night to charge electric vehicles and meet demand from electrified heating. Transmission capacity over the California border increased by 40 - 220 percent by 2050, implying that transmission siting, permitting, and regional cooperation will become increasingly important. California remained a net electricity importer in all scenarios investigated. Wind and solar power were key elements in power system decarbonization in 2050 if no new nuclear capacity was built. The amount of installed gas capacity remained relatively constant between present-day and 2050, although carbon capture and sequestration was installed on some gas plants by 2050.

  9. Final Report Balancing energy conservation and occupant needs in ventilation rate standards for Big Box stores in California. Predicted indoor air quality and energy consumption using a matrix of ventilation scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Apte, Michael G.; Mendell, Mark J.; Sohn, Michael D.; Dutton, Spencer M.; Berkeley, Pam M.; Spears, Michael

    2011-02-01

    Through mass-balance modeling of various ventilation scenarios that might satisfy the ASHRAE 62.1 Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Procedure, we estimate indoor concentrations of contaminants of concern (COCs) in California big box stores, compare estimates to available thresholds, and for selected scenarios estimate differences in energy consumption. Findings are intended to inform decisions on adding performance-based approaches to ventilation rate (VR) standards for commercial buildings. Using multi-zone mass-balance models and available contaminant source rates, we estimated concentrations of 34 COCs for multiple ventilation scenarios: VRmin (0.04 cfm/ft2 ), VRmax (0.24 cfm/ft2 ), and VRmid (0.14 cfm/ft2 ). We compared COC concentrations with available health, olfactory, and irritant thresholds. We estimated building energy consumption at different VRs using a previously developed EnergyPlus model. VRmax did control all contaminants adequately, but VRmin did not, and VRmid did so only marginally. Air cleaning and local ventilation near strong sources both showed promise. Higher VRs increased indoor concentrations of outdoor air pollutants. Lowering VRs in big box stores in California from VRmax to VRmid would reduce total energy use by an estimated 6.6% and energy costs by 2.5%. Reducing the required VRs in Californias big box stores could reduce energy use and costs, but poses challenges for health and comfort of occupants. Source removal, air cleaning, and local ventilation may be needed at reduced VRs, and even at current recommended VRs. Also, alternative ventilation strategies taking climate and season into account in ventilation schedules may provide greater energy cost savings than constant ventilation rates, while improving IAQ.

  10. Fine precipitation scenarios of AlZnMg(Cu) alloys revealed by advanced atomic-resolution electron microscopy study Part I: Structure determination of the precipitates in AlZnMg(Cu) alloys

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, J.Z.; Chen, J.H.; Yuan, D.W.; Wu, C.L.; Zhu, J.; Cheng, Z.Y.

    2015-01-15

    Although they are among the most important precipitation-hardened materials for industry applications, the high-strength AlZnMg(Cu) alloys have thus far not yet been understood adequately about their underlying precipitation scenarios in relation with the properties. This is partly due to the fact that the structures of a number of different precipitates involved in electron microscopy in association with quantitative image simulations have to be employed; a systematic study of these hardening precipitates in different alloys is also necessary. In Part I of the present study, it is shown that there are five types of structurally different precipitates including the equilibrium η-phase precipitate. Using two state-of-the-art atomic-resolution imaging techniques in electron microscopy in association with quantitative image simulations, we have determined and clarified all the unknown precipitate structures. It is demonstrated that atomic-resolution imaging can directly suggest approximate structure models, whereas quantitative image analysis can refine the structure details that are much smaller than the resolution of the microscope. This combination is crucially important for solving the difficult structure problems of the strengthening precipitates in AlZnMg(Cu) alloys. - Highlights: Part I: • We determine and verify all the key precipitate structures in AlMgZn(Cu) alloys. • We employ aberration-corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM). • We use aberration-corrected high-resolution TEM (HRTEM) for the investigations. • We obtain atomic-resolution images of the precipitates and model their structures. • We refine all precipitate structures with quantitative image simulation analysis. Part II: • The hardening precipitates in AlZnMg alloys shall be classified into two groups. • Two precipitation scenarios coexist in the alloys. • The precipitation behavior of such an alloy depends on the alloy's composition. • Very detailed phase/structure transformations among the precipitates are revealed.

  11. Microsoft PowerPoint - 3b.AWR 160 8-31-10_Rev1.3.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    WMD Standardized Awareness Training AWR-160 Course Test-Out Option pr AWR-160 Course Test-Out Option Course Description: The WMD Standardized Awareness Training Course provides emergency responders with awareness- level instruction on recognition, avoidance, isolation, and notification techniques in a WMD environment. The course covers prevention and deterrence of chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosive hazards. Counter Terrorism Operations Support (CTOS) provides a test-out

  12. Making Vehicle Technology Deployment Scenarios More Robust

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    2013 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting

  13. SCENARIOS EVALUATION TOOL FOR CHLORINATED SOLVENT MNA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vangelas, K; Brian02 Looney, B; Michael J. Truex; Charles J. Newell

    2006-08-16

    Over the past three decades, much progress has been made in the remediation of chlorinated solvents from the subsurface. Yet these pervasive contaminants continue to present a significant challenge to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), other federal agencies, and other public and private organizations. The physical and chemical properties of chlorinated solvents make it difficult to rapidly reach the low concentrations typically set as regulatory limits. These technical challenges often result in high costs and long remediation time frames. In 2003, the DOE through the Office of Environmental Management funded a science-based technical project that uses the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's technical protocol (EPA, 1998) and directives (EPA, 1999) on Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) as the foundation on which to introduce supporting concepts and new scientific developments that will support remediation of chlorinated solvents based on natural attenuation processes. This project supports the direction in which many site owners want to move to complete the remediation of their site(s), that being to complete the active treatment portion of the remedial effort and transition into MNA. The overarching objective of the effort was to examine environmental remedies that are based on natural processes--remedies such as Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) or Enhanced Attenuation (EA). The research program did identify several specific opportunities for advances based on: (1) mass balance as the central framework for attenuation based remedies, (2) scientific advancements and achievements during the past ten years, (3) regulatory and policy development and real-world experience using MNA, and (4) exploration of various ideas for integrating attenuation remedies into a systematic set of ''combined remedies'' for contaminated sites. These opportunities are summarized herein and are addressed in more detail in referenced project documents and journal articles, as well as in the technical and regulatory documents being developed within the ITRC. Three topic areas were identified for development during this project. These areas are: mass balance, Enhanced Attenuation (EA), and new characterization and monitoring tools and approaches to support MNA and EA. Each of these topics is documented in stand alone reports, WSRC-STI-2006-00082, WSRC-STI-2006-00083, and WSRC-STI-2006-00084, respectively. In brief, the mass balance efforts are examining methods and tools to allow a site to be evaluated in terms of a system where the inputs and processes within the system are compared to the outputs from the system, as well as understanding what attenuation processes may be occurring and how likely they are to occur within a system. Enhanced Attenuation is a new concept that is a transition step between primary treatments and MNA, when the natural attenuation processes are not sufficient to allow direct transition from the primary treatment to MNA. EA technologies are designed to either boost the level of the natural attenuation processes or decrease the loading of contaminants to the system for a period of time sufficient to allow the remedial goals to be met over the long-term. For characterization and monitoring, a phased approach based on documenting the site specific mass balance was developed. Tools and techniques to support the approach included direct measures of the biological processes and various tools to support cost-effective long-term monitoring of systems where the natural attenuation processes are the main treatment remedies. The effort revealed opportunities for integrating attenuation mechanisms into a systematic set of ''combined remedies'' for contaminated sites.

  14. Scenarios Evaluation Tool for Chlorinated Solvent MNA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vangelas, Karen; Michael J. Truex; Charles J. Newell; Brian Looney

    2007-02-28

    Over the past three decades, much progress has been made in the remediation of chlorinated solvents from the subsurface. Yet these pervasive contaminants continue to present a significant challenge to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), other federal agencies, and other public and private organizations. The physical and chemical properties of chlorinated solvents make it difficult to rapidly reach the low concentrations typically set as regulatory limits. These technical challenges often result in high costs and long remediation time frames. In 2003, the DOE through the Office of Environmental Management funded a science-based technical project that uses the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's technical protocol (EPA, 1998) and directives (EPA, 1999) on Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) as the foundation on which to introduce supporting concepts and new scientific developments that will support remediation of chlorinated solvents based on natural attenuation processes. This project supports the direction in which many site owners want to move to complete the remediation of their site(s), that being to complete the active treatment portion of the remedial effort and transition into MNA. The overarching objective of the effort was to examine environmental remedies that are based on natural processes--remedies such as Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) or Enhanced Attenuation (EA). The research program did identify several specific opportunities for advances based on: (1) mass balance as the central framework for attenuation based remedies, (2) scientific advancements and achievements during the past ten years, (3) regulatory and policy development and real-world experience using MNA, and (4) exploration of various ideas for integrating attenuation remedies into a systematic set of ''combined remedies'' for contaminated sites. These opportunities are summarized herein and are addressed in more detail in referenced project documents and journal articles, as well as in the technical and regulatory documents being developed within the ITRC.

  15. Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    platform for comparing the cost of alternative hydrogen delivery and refueling options. Identify cost drivers of current hydrogen delivery and refueling technologies for various ...

  16. Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative Scenario Analysis

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Analysis of potential policy options to help the state reach the 70% Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) goal, including possible pathways to attain the goal based on currently available technology.

  17. Energy Technology Perspectives, 2010: Scenarios & Strategies...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Carbon Capture and Storage Topics: Environmental Website: www.iea.orgTextbasenppdffree2010etp2010part1.pdf Equivalent URI: cleanenergysolutions.orgcontent...

  18. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peterson, S.; Peck, C.; Stright, D.; Newes, E.; Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Hsu, S.; Bush, B.

    2015-02-01

    Biofuels are promoted in the United States through legislation, as one part of an overall strategy to lessen dependence on imported energy as well as to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases (Office of the Biomass Program and Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 2008). For example, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) mandates 36 billion gallons of renewable liquid transportation fuel in the U.S. marketplace by the year 2022 (U.S. Government, 2007). Meeting the volumetric targets has prompted an unprecedented increase in funding for biofuels research, much of it focused on producing ethanol and other fuel types from cellulosic feedstocks as well as additional biomass sources (such as oil seeds and algae feedstock). In order to help propel the biofuels industry, the U.S. government has enacted a variety of incentive programs (including subsidies, fixed capital investment grants, loan guarantees, vehicle choice credits, and corporate average fuel economy standards) -- the short-and long-term ramifications of which are not well understood. Efforts to better understand the impacts of incentive strategies can help policy makers to develop a policy suite which will foster industry development while reducing the financial risk associated with government support of the nascent biofuels industry.

  19. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Hans-Holger Rogner, Alexei Sankovski, Michael Schlesinger, Priyadarshi Shukla, Steven Smith, Robert Swart, Sascha van Rooijen, Nadejda Victor, Zhou Dadi Edited by:Nebojsa...

  20. Biomass Scenario Model | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    National Renewable Energy Laboratory Partner: Department of Energy (DOE) Office of the Biomass Program Sector: Energy Focus Area: Biomass Phase: Determine Baseline Topics:...

  1. energy scenarios | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy becomes more competitive with fossil fuels in OECD countries, reports of this nature can go a long way to supporting more and more development. The four new reports in...

  2. Market penetration scenarios for fuel cell vehicles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, C.E.; James, B.D.; Lomax, F.D. Jr.

    1997-12-31

    Fuel cell vehicles may create the first mass market for hydrogen as an energy carrier. Directed Technologies, Inc., working with the US Department of Energy hydrogen systems analysis team, has developed a time-dependent computer market penetration model. This model estimates the number of fuel cell vehicles that would be purchased over time as a function of their cost and the cost of hydrogen relative to the costs of competing vehicles and fuels. The model then calculates the return on investment for fuel cell vehicle manufacturers and hydrogen fuel suppliers. The model also projects the benefit/cost ratio for government--the ratio of societal benefits such as reduced oil consumption, reduced urban air pollution and reduced greenhouse gas emissions to the government cost for assisting the development of hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The purpose of this model is to assist industry and government in choosing the best investment strategies to achieve significant return on investment and to maximize benefit/cost ratios. The model can illustrate trends and highlight the sensitivity of market penetration to various parameters such as fuel cell efficiency, cost, weight, and hydrogen cost. It can also illustrate the potential benefits of successful R and D and early demonstration projects. Results will be shown comparing the market penetration and return on investment estimates for direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles compared to fuel cell vehicles with onboard fuel processors including methanol steam reformers and gasoline partial oxidation systems. Other alternative fueled vehicles including natural gas hybrids, direct injection diesels and hydrogen-powered internal combustion hybrid vehicles will also be analyzed.

  3. Appendix K: GPRA07 alternative scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    This document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2007 Budget Request.

  4. Sustainable Transport Illustrative Scenarios Tool | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tools International Council on Clean Transportation Mobilising private finance for low-carbon development Implementing Sustainable Urban Travel Policies in Mexico ... further...

  5. Impacts of urban transportation mode split on CO{sub 2} emissions in Jinan, China.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    He, D.; Meng, F.; Wang, M.; He, K.

    2011-04-01

    As the world's largest developing country, China currently is undergoing rapid urbanization and motorization, which will result in far-reaching impacts on energy and the environment. According to estimates, energy use and carbon emissions in the transportation sector will comprise roughly 30% of total emissions by 2030. Since the late 1990s, transportation-related issues such as energy, consumption, and carbon emissions have become a policy focus in China. To date, most research and policies have centered on vehicle technologies that promote vehicle efficiency and reduced emissions. Limited research exists on the control of greenhouse gases through mode shifts in urban transportation - in particular, through the promotion of public transit. The purpose of this study is to establish a methodology to analyze carbon emissions from the urban transportation sector at the Chinese city level. By using Jinan, the capital of China's Shandong Province, as an example, we have developed an analytical model to simulate energy consumption and carbon emissions based on the number of trips, the transportation mode split, and the trip distance. This model has enabled us to assess the impacts of the transportation mode split on energy consumption and carbon emissions. Furthermore, this paper reviews a set of methods for data collection, estimation, and processing for situations where statistical data are scarce in China. This paper also describes the simulation of three transportation system development scenarios. The results of this study illustrate that if no policy intervention is implemented for the transportation mode split (the business-as-usual (BAU) case), then emissions from Chinese urban transportation systems will quadruple by 2030. However, a dense, mixed land-use pattern, as well as transportation policies that encourage public transportation, would result in the elimination of 1.93 million tons of carbon emissions - approximately 50% of the BAU scenario emissions.

  6. U.S. Building-Sector Energy Efficiency Potential

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, Rich; Borgeson, Sam; Koomey, Jon; Biermayer, Peter

    2008-09-30

    This paper presents an estimate of the potential for energy efficiency improvements in the U.S. building sector by 2030. The analysis uses the Energy Information Administration's AEO 2007 Reference Case as a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, and applies percentage savings estimates by end use drawn from several prior efficiency potential studies. These prior studies include the U.S. Department of Energy's Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future (CEF) study and a recent study of natural gas savings potential in New York state. For a few end uses for which savings estimates are not readily available, the LBNL study team compiled technical data to estimate savings percentages and costs of conserved energy. The analysis shows that for electricity use in buildings, approximately one-third of the BAU consumption can be saved at a cost of conserved energy of 2.7 cents/kWh (all values in 2007 dollars), while for natural gas approximately the same percentage savings is possible at a cost of between 2.5 and 6.9 $/million Btu. This cost-effective level of savings results in national annual energy bill savings in 2030 of nearly $170 billion. To achieve these savings, the cumulative capital investment needed between 2010 and 2030 is about $440 billion, which translates to a 2-1/2 year simple payback period, or savings over the life of the measures that are nearly 3.5 times larger than the investment required (i.e., a benefit-cost ratio of 3.5).

  7. Optima Program Overview

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    7-14% beyond BAU 16 billion gallons advanced biofuel Optima research thrust 1 Provide scientific basis to develop optimal fuelengine systems for spark ignition engines with market ...

  8. TITLE AUTHORS SUBJECT SUBJECT RELATED DESCRIPTION PUBLISHER AVAILABILI...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Recovery Act Multi Objective Optimization Approaches for the Design of Carbon Geological Sequestration Systems Bau Domenico ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES The main objective of this...

  9. Launch implementation | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Launch implementation Jump to: navigation, search Stage 4 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities DevelopBAU Stage 4:...

  10. Bioenergy Toolkit | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Bioenergy Toolkit Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities DevelopBAU Stage 4:...

  11. Assess Oportunities | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Assess Oportunities Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities DevelopBAU Stage 4:...

  12. Notice of Intent to Develop a Page Change to DOE O 413.3B, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2015-10-01

    The Page Change is a limited update to incorporate recent Secretarial policies and issues raised by external stakeholders

  13. Notice of Intent to Develop a Page Change to DOE O 413.3B, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    The Page Change is a limited update to incorporate recent Secretarial policies and issues raised by external stakeholders

  14. Data:63618e21-2a4f-46d0-8350-3b68af7c50d1 | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    af7c50d1 No revision has been approved for this page. It is currently under review by our subject matter experts. Jump to: navigation, search Loading... 1. Basic Information 2....

  15. Data:Ae3cd3b5-369c-4ef5-a089-9be6f92e16fa | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ef5-a089-9be6f92e16fa No revision has been approved for this page. It is currently under review by our subject matter experts. Jump to: navigation, search Loading... 1. Basic...

  16. Data:6941e69c-3b58-4100-9f8a-95b61dc551f9 | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    dc551f9 No revision has been approved for this page. It is currently under review by our subject matter experts. Jump to: navigation, search Loading... 1. Basic Information 2....

  17. Data:1f590a33-1ff5-482b-91c2-e8dd847f3b0a | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    under review by our subject matter experts. Jump to: navigation, search Loading... 1. Basic Information 2. Demand 3. Energy << Previous 1 2 3 Next >> Basic Information...

  18. ,"Table 3B.1. FRCC Monthly Peak Hour Demand, by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Assesment Area,"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    B.1. FRCC Monthly Peak Hour Demand, by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Assesment Area," ,"1996-2010 Actual, 2011-2012 Projected" ,"(Megawatts)" ,"FRCC","Year","January","February","March","April","May","June","July","August","September","October","November","December"

  19. Ecological evaluation of proposed discharge of dredged material from Oakland Harbor into ocean waters (Phase 3 B of -42-foot project)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kohn, N.P.; Ward, J.A.; Mayhew, H.L.; Word, J.Q.; Barrows, E.S.; Goodwin, S.M.; Lefkovitz, L.F. )

    1992-06-01

    The Water Resources Development Act of 1986 (Public Law 99-662) authorized the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) San Francisco District, to deepen and widen the navigational channels of the Oakland Inner and Outer Harbors to accomodate deeper-draft vessels. The USACE is considering several disposal options for the dredged material removed during these channel improvements including open-water disposal. Dredged material proposed for open-water disposal must be evaluated to determine the potential impacts of the disposal activity on the water column and disposal site enviromments. The USACE requested that Battelle/Marine Sciences Laboratory (MSL) conduct studies to evaluate open-water disposal options for Oakland Harbor sediments. This request developed into the Oakland Harbor Phase III Program. This is Volume 1 of a two-volume report that presents information gathered to determine the suitability of ocean disposal of sediments dredged from Oakland Harbor. This volume contains project background, materials and methods, results, discussion, and conclusions.

  20. Ecological evaluation of proposed discharge of dredged material from Oakland Harbor into ocean waters (Phase 3 B of -42-foot project). Volume 1, Analyses and discussion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kohn, N.P.; Ward, J.A.; Mayhew, H.L.; Word, J.Q.; Barrows, E.S.; Goodwin, S.M.; Lefkovitz, L.F.

    1992-06-01

    The Water Resources Development Act of 1986 (Public Law 99-662) authorized the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) San Francisco District, to deepen and widen the navigational channels of the Oakland Inner and Outer Harbors to accomodate deeper-draft vessels. The USACE is considering several disposal options for the dredged material removed during these channel improvements including open-water disposal. Dredged material proposed for open-water disposal must be evaluated to determine the potential impacts of the disposal activity on the water column and disposal site enviromments. The USACE requested that Battelle/Marine Sciences Laboratory (MSL) conduct studies to evaluate open-water disposal options for Oakland Harbor sediments. This request developed into the Oakland Harbor Phase III Program. This is Volume 1 of a two-volume report that presents information gathered to determine the suitability of ocean disposal of sediments dredged from Oakland Harbor. This volume contains project background, materials and methods, results, discussion, and conclusions.

  1. Consistent scenario for B{yields}PS decays

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Delepine, D.; Lucio M, J. L.; Mendoza S, J. A.; Ramirez, Carlos A.

    2008-12-01

    We consider B{yields}PS decays where P stands for pseudoscalar and S for a heavy (1500 MeV) scalar meson. We achieve agreement with available experimental data, which includes two orders of magnitude hierarchy, assuming the scalars mesons are two quark states. The contribution of the dipolar penguin operator O{sub 11} is quantified.

  2. A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy A Critical Step Toward Sustainable Nuclear Fuel Disposal A Critical Step Toward Sustainable Nuclear Fuel Disposal January 26, 2012 - 2:30pm Addthis Secretary Chu Secretary Chu Former Secretary of Energy The Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear Future was formed at the direction of the President to conduct a comprehensive review of polices for managing the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle. If we are going to ensure that the United States remains at the forefront of nuclear

  3. Scenario of solid waste reuse in Khulna city of Bangladesh

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bari, Quazi H.; Mahbub Hassan, K.; Haque, R.

    2012-12-15

    The reuse and recycling of waste materials are now sincerely considered to be an integral part of solid waste management in many parts of the world. In this context, a vast number of options ranging from small scale decentralized to larger scale centralized plants have been adopted. This study aimed at investigating the waste reuse schemes in Khulna city located in the southern part of Bangladesh and ranked third largest city in the country. The shops for reusable material (SRM) were mostly situated around railway, waterway, and truck station markets which provided easy transportation to further locations. For the reuses of waste materials and products, a chain system was found to collect reusable wastes under a total number of 310 identified SRM with 859 persons directly or indirectly involved in the scheme. This was a decentralized waste management system with self sufficient (autonomous) management. According to mass balance, about 38.52 tons d{sup -1} solid wastes were reused in Khulna city area, accounting for 7.65% of the total generated wastes. This study revealed that apparently a silent, systematic, smooth, and clean reuse chain has been established in Khulna city area under private initiatives, whose sustainability was confirmed over the years in the country without any official or formal funds. However, proper adjustment between the higher and lower chain in the materials flow path, as well as personal hygiene training for the workers, would further improve the achievements of the established reuse scheme.

  4. System and method for modeling and analyzing complex scenarios

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Shevitz, Daniel Wolf

    2013-04-09

    An embodiment of the present invention includes a method for analyzing and solving possibility tree. A possibility tree having a plurality of programmable nodes is constructed and solved with a solver module executed by a processor element. The solver module executes the programming of said nodes, and tracks the state of at least a variable through a branch. When a variable of said branch is out of tolerance with a parameter, the solver disables remaining nodes of the branch and marks the branch as an invalid solution. The valid solutions are then aggregated and displayed as valid tree solutions.

  5. Scenarios for exercising technical approaches to verified nuclear reductions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doyle, James

    2010-01-01

    Presidents Obama and Medvedev in April 2009 committed to a continuing process of step-by-step nuclear arms reductions beyond the new START treaty that was signed April 8, 2010 and to the eventual goal of a world free of nuclear weapons. In addition, the US Nuclear Posture review released April 6, 2010 commits the US to initiate a comprehensive national research and development program to support continued progress toward a world free of nuclear weapons, including expanded work on verification technologies and the development of transparency measures. It is impossible to predict the specific directions that US-RU nuclear arms reductions will take over the 5-10 years. Additional bilateral treaties could be reached requiring effective verification as indicated by statements made by the Obama administration. There could also be transparency agreements or other initiatives (unilateral, bilateral or multilateral) that require monitoring with a standard of verification lower than formal arms control, but still needing to establish confidence to domestic, bilateral and multilateral audiences that declared actions are implemented. The US Nuclear Posture Review and other statements give some indication of the kinds of actions and declarations that may need to be confirmed in a bilateral or multilateral setting. Several new elements of the nuclear arsenals could be directly limited. For example, it is likely that both strategic and nonstrategic nuclear warheads (deployed and in storage), warhead components, and aggregate stocks of such items could be accountable under a future treaty or transparency agreement. In addition, new initiatives or agreements may require the verified dismantlement of a certain number of nuclear warheads over a specified time period. Eventually procedures for confirming the elimination of nuclear warheads, components and fissile materials from military stocks will need to be established. This paper is intended to provide useful background information for establishing a conceptual approach to a five-year technical program plan for research and development of nuclear arms reductions verification and transparency technologies and procedures.

  6. Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    other technologies. Biomass Biomass Energy Data Book Buildings Buildings Energy Data Book Hydrogen Hydrogen Energy Data Book Marine and Hydrokinetic Technology Marine and...

  7. Assess in-depth contributions of selected scenarios to goals...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and Storage in Industry Algae-Based Biofuels: Applications and Co-Products Asia-Energy Efficiency Guide to Industry Biomass Energy Technology Module Building Component Library...

  8. Integrated Operation Scenarios ITPA Topical Group Meeting | Princeton...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    at PPPL, adult visitors must show a government-issued photo I.D. - for example, a passport or a driver's license. Non-U.S. citizens must show a government-issued photo I.D.,...

  9. A Method for Evaluating Fire after Earthquake Scenarios for Single...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    LIMITS (UPL) Uncertainties depend on MMSF and PGA Confidence limits straightforward from GLM Prediction limits required some workresearch - Developed a...

  10. Low Carbon Society Scenarios Towards 2050 | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    20501 Tool Overview "The primary objective of the "Research project to Establish a Methodology to Evaluate Mid to Long Term Environmental Policy Options toward Asian Low-Carbon...

  11. Microsoft Word - Scenario B w Amendments.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    1 for each Offer submitted herein. Initial here: . Part IV. Estimated TIC and Initial Spread, Applicable Only to Offers to be Financed with Bonds If the Offeror...

  12. Microsoft Word - Scenario A w Amendments.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    1 for each Offer submitted herein. Initial here: . Part IV. Estimated TIC and Initial Spread, Applicable Only to Offers to be Financed with Bonds If the Offeror...

  13. Peru-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    in an effort to build best practice, share tools and research and to create a growing body of knowledge, from a developing country perspective, that is accessible to the...

  14. Argentina-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    in an effort to build best practice, share tools and research and to create a growing body of knowledge, from a developing country perspective, that is accessible to the...

  15. South Africa-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    in an effort to build best practice, share tools and research and to create a growing body of knowledge, from a developing country perspective, that is accessible to the...

  16. Brazil-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    in an effort to build best practice, share tools and research and to create a growing body of knowledge, from a developing country perspective, that is accessible to the...

  17. Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    in an effort to build best practice, share tools and research and to create a growing body of knowledge, from a developing country perspective, that is accessible to the...

  18. Colombia-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    in an effort to build best practice, share tools and research and to create a growing body of knowledge, from a developing country perspective, that is accessible to the...

  19. Scoping Study Investigating PWR Instrumentation during a Severe Accident Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rempe, J. L.; Knudson, D. L.; Lutz, R. J.

    2015-09-01

    The accidents at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) and Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3 nuclear power plants demonstrate the critical importance of accurate, relevant, and timely information on the status of reactor systems during a severe accident. These events also highlight the critical importance of understanding and focusing on the key elements of system status information in an environment where operators may be overwhelmed with superfluous and sometimes conflicting data. While progress in these areas has been made since TMI-2, the events at Fukushima suggests that there may still be a potential need to ensure that critical plant information is available to plant operators. Recognizing the significant technical and economic challenges associated with plant modifications, it is important to focus on instrumentation that can address these information critical needs. As part of a program initiated by the Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a scoping effort was initiated to assess critical information needs identified for severe accident management and mitigation in commercial Light Water Reactors (LWRs), to quantify the environment instruments monitoring this data would have to survive, and to identify gaps where predicted environments exceed instrumentation qualification envelop (QE) limits. Results from the Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) scoping evaluations are documented in this report. The PWR evaluations were limited in this scoping evaluation to quantifying the environmental conditions for an unmitigated Short-Term Station BlackOut (STSBO) sequence in one unit at the Surry nuclear power station. Results were obtained using the MELCOR models developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)-sponsored State of the Art Consequence Assessment (SOARCA) program project. Results from this scoping evaluation indicate that some instrumentation identified to provide critical information would be exposed to conditions that significantly exceeded QE limits for extended time periods for the low frequency STSBO sequence evaluated in this study. It is recognized that the core damage frequency (CDF) of the sequence evaluated in this scoping effort would be considerably lower if evaluations considered new FLEX equipment being installed by industry. Nevertheless, because of uncertainties in instrumentation response when exposed to conditions beyond QE limits and alternate challenges associated with different sequences that may impact sensor performance, it is recommended that additional evaluations of instrumentation performance be completed to provide confidence that operators have access to accurate, relevant, and timely information on the status of reactor systems for a broad range of challenges associated with risk important severe accident sequences.

  20. Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Artur Milanez, Manager of Biofuels Department, Brazilian Development Bank PDF icon milanezbiomass2014.pdf More Documents & Publications Support to Biofuels in Latin America and ...

  1. A Reliable Muddle: Transportation Scenarios for the 80% Greenhouse...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    an average fuel economy (FE) for new light duty vehicles. ... Zero Emission Vehicle Mandates (ZEV) * Increases fuel economy ... Diesel , CI 93.2 gCO 2 eMJ Ethanol , CI -10 - 75 gCO ...

  2. Risk-Dominant Scenarios from Several SRS Facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blanchard, A.

    1999-03-15

    This report and associated spreadsheets describe the SRS safety analysis provided for four selected transuranic storage and stabilization facilities. For each of the four sets of analysis, the bounding events in each frequency category are identified, key inputs and assumptions are stated, and final doses tabulated.

  3. Improved Accuracy for Two-Phase Downflow Scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cliff B. Davis

    2012-10-01

    Problems have been reported for very high downflows in small and intermediate pipes in the bubbly and slug flow regimes. When the flow rate is near critical, the calculated mass flow rate depends strongly on the flow orientation for small and intermediate pipes, whereas the flow rate is nearly independent of flow direction for large pipes. At very high flow rates, the flow is expected to be nearly homogenous and hence to be nearly independent of flow direction. The flow rates calculated by RELAP5-3D agree with this expectation except for downflow in small and intermediate pipes, where the calculated flows in the downward direction are about 20% lower than the flows in the upward and horizontal directions. The problem was traced to an extrapolation of the EPRI drift flux correlation beyond the range of its database. The problem was corrected by creating a very high downflow regime. The EPRI correlation is replaced by the Zuber-Findlay churn turbulent and Kataoka-Ishii drift flux correlations in the very high downflow regime for small and intermediate pipes.

  4. Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy statistics for 215 countries. The statistics include crude oil production, oil consumption, natural gas production and consumption, electricity generation and...

  5. Emissions Scenarios, Costs, and Implementation Considerations of REDD Programs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sathaye, Jayant; Andrasko, Ken; Chan, Peter

    2011-04-11

    Greenhouse gas emissions from the forestry sector are estimated to be 8.4 GtCO2-eq./year or about 17percent of the global emissions. We estimate that the cost forreducing deforestation is low in Africa and several times higher in Latin America and Southeast Asia. These cost estimates are sensitive to the uncertainties of how muchunsustainable high-revenue logging occurs, little understood transaction and program implementation costs, and barriers to implementation including governance issues. Due to lack of capacity in the affected countries, achieving reduction or avoidance of carbon emissions will require extensive REDD-plus programs. Preliminary REDD-plus Readiness cost estimates and program descriptions for Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Guyana and Mexico show that roughly one-third of potential REDD-plus mitigation benefits might come from avoided deforestation and the rest from avoided forest degradation and other REDD-plus activities.

  6. Land-use Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and Energy Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) Dynamic-recursive model GCAM Model Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Resources by Type Tools Click Sort key.JPG to sort by...

  7. Fuel dispersal modeling for aircraft-runway impact scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tieszen, S.R.

    1995-11-01

    A fuel dispersal model for C-141 transport accidents was developed for the Defense Nuclear Agency`s Fuel Fire Technology Base Program to support Weapon System Safety Assessments. The spectrum of accidents resulting from aircraft impact on a runway was divided into three fuel dispersal regimes: low, intermediate, and high-velocity impact. Sufficient data existed in the accident, crash test, and fuel-filled bomb literature to support development of a qualitative framework for dispersal models, but not quantitative models for all regimes. Therefore, a test series at intermediate scale was conducted to generate data on which to base the model for the high-velocity regime. Tests were conducted over an impact velocity range from 12 m/s to 91 m/s and angles of impact from 22.5{degrees} to 67.5{degrees}. Dependent variables were area covered by dispersed fuel, amount of mass in that area, and location of the area relative to the impact line. Test results showed that no liquid pooling occurred for impact velocities greater than 61 m/s, independent of the angle of impact. Some pooling did occur at lower velocities, but in no test was the liquid-layer thickness greater than 5.25 mm.

  8. Scenario-Driven Training | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    already have in our kit, instead of forcing us to get new equipment or drastically changing the way we work." Captain Mark Stewart 4th WMD Civil Support Team Georgia National Guard...

  9. Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios - A...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    guidebook assists planners working at the sub-national levels to identify and map the nature of current and future vulnerability to long-term climate change so that appropriate...

  10. Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    for 215 countries. The statistics include crude oil production, oil consumption, natural gas production and consumption, electricity generation and consumption, primary energy,...

  11. Inflationary scenarios in Starobinsky model with higher order corrections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Artymowski, Michał; Lalak, Zygmunt; Lewicki, Marek

    2015-06-17

    We consider the Starobinsky inflation with a set of higher order corrections parametrised by two real coefficients λ{sub 1} ,λ{sub 2}. In the Einstein frame we have found a potential with the Starobinsky plateau, steep slope and possibly with an additional minimum, local maximum or a saddle point. We have identified three types of inflationary behaviour that may be generated in this model: i) inflation on the plateau, ii) at the local maximum (topological inflation), iii) at the saddle point. We have found limits on parameters λ{sub i} and initial conditions at the Planck scale which enable successful inflation and disable eternal inflation at the plateau. We have checked that the local minimum away from the GR vacuum is stable and that the field cannot leave it neither via quantum tunnelling nor via thermal corrections.

  12. Fuel Cycle Scenario Definition, Evaluation, and Trade-offs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steven J. Piet; Gretchen E. Matthern; Jacob J. Jacobson; Christopher T. Laws; Lee C. Cadwallader; Abdellatif M. Yacout; Robert N. Hill; J. D. Smith; Andrew S. Goldmann; George Bailey

    2006-08-01

    This report aims to clarify many of the issues being discussed within the AFCI program, including Inert Matrix Fuel (IMF) versus Mixed Oxide (MOX) fuel, single-pass versus multi-pass recycling, thermal versus fast reactors, potential need for transmutation of technetium and iodine, and the value of separating cesium and strontium. It documents most of the work produced by INL, ANL, and SNL personnel under their Simulation, Evaluation, and Trade Study (SETS) work packages during FY2005 and the first half of FY2006. This report represents the first attempt to calculate a full range of metrics, covering all four AFCI program objectives - waste management, proliferation resistance, energy recovery, and systematic management/economics/safety - using a combination of "static" calculations and a system dynamic model, DYMOND. In many cases, we examine the same issue both dynamically and statically to determine the robustness of the observations. All analyses are for the U.S. reactor fleet. This is a technical report, not aimed at a policy-level audience. A wide range of options are studied to provide the technical basis for identifying the most attractive options and potential improvements. Option improvement could be vital to accomplish before the AFCI program publishes definitive cost estimates. Information from this report will be extracted and summarized in future policy-level reports. Many dynamic simulations of deploying those options are included. There are few "control knobs" for flying or piloting the fuel cycle system into the future, even though it is dark (uncertain) and controls are sluggish with slow time response: what types of reactors are built, what types of fuels are used, and the capacity of separation and fabrication plants. Piloting responsibilities are distributed among utilities, government, and regulators, compounding the challenge of making the entire system work and respond to changing circumstances. We identify four approaches that would increase our ability to pilot the fuel cycle system: (1) have a recycle strategy that could be implemented before the 2030-2050 approximate period when current reactors retire so that replacement reactors fit into the strategy, (2) establish an option such as multi-pass blended-core IMF as a downward plutonium control knob and accumulate waste management benefits early, (3) establish fast reactors with flexible conversion ratio as a future control knob that slowly becomes available if/when fast reactors are added to the fleet, and (4) expand exploration of blended assemblies and cores, which appear to have advantages and agility. Initial results suggest multi-pass full-core MOX appears to be a less effective way than multi-pass blended core IMF to manage the fuel cycle system because it requires higher TRU throughput while more slowly accruing waste management benefits. Single-pass recycle approaches for LWRs (we did not study the VHTR) do not meet AFCI program objectives and could be considered a "dead end". Fast reactors appear to be effective options but a significant number of fast reactors must be deployed before the benefit of such strategies can be observed.

  13. Inflation in the generalized inverse power law scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lu, Zhun

    2013-11-01

    We propose a single field inflationary model by generalizing the inverse power law potential from the intermediate model. We study the implication of our model on the primordial anisotropy of cosmological microwave background radiation. Specifically, we apply the slow-roll approximation to calculate the scalar spectral tilt n{sub s} and the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. The results are compared with the recent data measured by the Planck satellite. We find that by choosing proper values for the parameters, our model can well describe the Planck data.

  14. Biomass Scenario Model (Fact Sheet), NREL (National Renewable...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain that explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and their...

  15. Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This presentation by Amgad Elgowainy of Argonne National Laboratory was given at the Joint Meeting on Hydrogen Delivery Modeling and Analysis, May 8-9, 2007.

  16. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios : a special report of Working...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Hans-Holger more ; Sankovski, Alexei ; Schlesinger, Michael ; Shukla, Priyadarshi ; Smith, Steven J. ; Swart, Robert ; van Rooijen, Sascha ; Victor, Nadejda ; Dadi, Zhou less ...

  17. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios (Journal...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Authors: Van Vuuren, Detlef ; Meinshausen, Malte ; Plattner, Gian-Kasper ; Joos, Fortunat ; Strassmann, Kuno M. ; Smith, Steven J. ; Wigley, T. M. ; Raper, S. ; Riahi, Keywan ; De ...

  18. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs (Book) | SciTech Connect

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Subject: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; HUMAN FACTORS; CARBON DIOXIDE; AIR POLLUTION; ENERGY SYSTEMS; CLIMATIC CHANGE; ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION; ...

  19. Using HyTrans to Study H2 Transition Scenarios

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    early transition analysis? 4. How will we interface with NREL's detailed GIS analyses? ... S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY 4. How will we interface with NREL's detailed GIS analyses? * ...

  20. South Africa Long Term Mitigation Scenarios | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    of each option. How, then, is South Africa to grow and develop in order to reduce poverty, while at the same time retooling its economy in order to reduce its greenhouse gas...