Sample records for base case forecast

  1. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  2. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsogas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesof AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  3. Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

  4. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    have to be jointly taken into account in some decision-making problems, e.g. offshore wind farmWind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number

  5. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  6. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  7. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  8. SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS Annette governing the insolation, forecasting of solar radiation makes the description of development of the cloud

  9. ANN-based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cañizares, Claudio A.

    ANN-based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets Hong Chen Claudio A. Ca~nizares Ajit1 Abstract--This paper proposes an Artificial Neu- ral Network (ANN)-based short-term load forecasting, electricity markets, spot prices, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) I. Introduction Short

  10. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price as traded on the wholesale, short-term (spot) market at the Mid-Columbia trading hub. This price represents noted. BASE CASE FORECAST The base case wholesale electricity price forecast uses the Council's medium

  11. Distribution Based Data Filtering for Financial Time Series Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bailey, James

    recent past. In this paper, we address the challenge of forecasting the behavior of time series using@unimelb.edu.au Abstract. Changes in the distribution of financial time series, particularly stock market prices, can of stock prices, which aims to forecast the future values of the price of a stock, in order to obtain

  12. Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone Vivien Mallet1 21 September 2006. [1] The potential of ensemble techniques to improve ozone forecasts ozone-monitoring networks. We found that several linear combinations of models have the potential

  13. NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Guebuem

    NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power Yuewei of these modeling technologies w.r.t. wind energy applications. Then I'll discuss wind farm

  14. Absolute Percent Error Based Fitness Functions for Evolving Forecast Models AndyNovobilski,Ph.D.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Thomas

    Absolute Percent Error Based Fitness Functions for Evolving Forecast Models Andy computfi~gas a methodof data mining,is its intrinsic ability to drive modelselection accordingto a mixedset of criteria. Basedon natural selection, evolutionary computing utilizes evaluationof candidatesolutions

  15. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  16. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Initial Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2005-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This chapter presents BPA's market price forecasts, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's rates. AURORA is used as the primary tool for (a) calculation of the demand rate, (b) shaping the PF rate, (c) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years 2008 and 2009, (d) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments, (e) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (f) providing a price input used for the risk analysis.

  17. PROBCAST: A Web-Based Portal to Mesoscale Probabilistic Forecasts Clifford Mass1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mass, Clifford F.

    1 PROBCAST: A Web-Based Portal to Mesoscale Probabilistic Forecasts Clifford Mass1 , Susan Joslyn over the Pacific Northwest. PROBCAST products are derived from the output of a mesoscale ensemble-processing of mesoscale, short-range ensembles. The NAS report also noted current deficiencies in the communication

  18. Base Oil Market Segment Forecasts up to 2020,Research Reports...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    base-oils-lubes-market.html This report includes the key market dynamics affecting the demand for base oil globally. As a part of our market dynamics analysis, we have analyzed...

  19. Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting:the Piemonte region case study Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 457466 (2005) EGU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting:the Piemonte region case study 457 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 457466 (2005) © EGU Operational hydro forecasting system in the context of the Piemonte Regions hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure

  20. The Peloton Approach : forecasting and strategic planning for emerging technologies : a case for RFID

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thuvara, Vineet

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The RFID industry is going through a sea of change and at different levels within the industry. Forecasts have been done on different facets of the RFID/EPC industry like the market size or the possible financial returns. ...

  1. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  2. Streamflow Forecasting Based on Statistical Applications and Measurements Made with Rain Gage and Weather Radar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hudlow, M.D.

    Techniques for streamflow forecasting are developed and tested for the Little Washita River in Oklahoma. The basic input for streamflow forecasts is rainfall. the rainfall amounts may be obtained from several sources; however, this study...

  3. Reliability-based casing design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maes, M.A. [Univ. of Calgary, Alberta (Canada). Civil Engineering Dept.; Gulati, K.C.; Johnson, R.C. [Mobil Research and Development Corp., Dallas, TX (United States); McKenna, D.L. [Mobil Producing Nigeria, Lagos (Nigeria); Brand, P.R.; Lewis, D.B. [Mobil E and P Technical Center, Dallas, TX (United States)

    1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The present paper describes the development of reliability-based design criteria for oil and/or gas well casing/tubing. The approach is based on the fundamental principles of limit state design. Limit states for tubulars are discussed and specific techniques for the stochastic modeling of loading and resistance variables are described. Zonation methods and calibration techniques are developed which are geared specifically to the characteristic tubular design for both hydrocarbon drilling and production applications. The application of quantitative risk analysis to the development of risk-consistent design criteria is shown to be a major and necessary step forward in achieving more economic tubular design.

  4. Research on Short-term Load Forecasting of the Thermoelectric Boiler Based on a Dynamic RBF Neural Network

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dai, W.; Zou, P.; Yan, C.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    is proposed based on the RBF neural network with the associated parameters of sample deviation and partial sample deviation, which are defined for the purpose of effective judgment of new samples. Also, in order to forecast the load of sample with large...

  5. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  6. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  7. 13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of computing power, innovative numerical systems, and assimilation of observations at high spatial and temporal system as a means by which model error and uncertainty can be quantified in the forecast. Employing13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

  8. The Hierarchical Case-Based Diagnosis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nahid Karchenasse; Jean-michel Roger; Francis Sevila

    1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper we propose a methodology to aid machine diagnosis based on the Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) techniques, called Hierarchical Case-Based Diagnosis (HCBD). Our method is a resample of the interpretative CBR which tries to interpret a new situation using interpretations of old situations

  9. Wavelet-Based Nonlinear Multiscale Decomposition Model for Electricity Load Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Murtagh, Fionn

    electrical power systems. Furthermore, power systems need to operate at even higher efficiency lead to extra power being generated and therefore may result in excessive investment in electric plant that is not fully utilized. On the other hand, a forecast that is too low may lead to some revenue loss from sales

  10. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility Planning Area Energy Policy Report. The forecast includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low

  11. Development and Evaluation of a Coupled Photosynthesis-Based Gas Exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Niyogi, Dev

    (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications DEV NIYOGI Department of Agronomy, and Department form 13 May 2008) ABSTRACT Current land surface schemes used for mesoscale weather forecast models use model (GEM) as a land surface scheme for mesoscale weather forecasting model applications. The GEM

  12. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    vs. AEO 2001 Price Forecast Natural Gas Price (nominal $/if forwards forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (ifs reference case forecast of natural gas prices delivered to

  13. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  14. Research on Short-term Load Forecasting of the Thermoelectric Boiler Based on a Dynamic RBF Neural Network

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dai, W.; Zou, P.; Yan, C.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As thermal inertia is the key factor for the lag of thermoelectric utility regulation, it becomes very important to forecast its short-term load according to running parameters. In this paper, dynamic radial basis function (RBF) neural network...

  15. A method for forecasting winter precipitation in Kentucky based on sea-level pressure patterns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ainsworth, Carl Gregory

    1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the same number of days. This is indicated by the use of upper-case let- ters following the numbers. Note that this does not imply any par- ticular similarity between patterns with the same type number, but that the frequencies of the types within... 10 9 13 4 2 13 9 6 3 5 11 4 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 38 30 :1016 0 -- 4018-. L' 1012' '"-: ---. - 0 . -p 0 y 0 4 1024 1028 1016 ' ~ 10 0 0 ~ 1024 1028 TYPE 1A DAY 494 10 APR 1972 0 1Ql XO XO %) KIJ5 0 ZI ~ aa KIU...

  16. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,forecasting of solar- radiation data, Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  17. 1980 Base case and feasibility analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a task of documenting a base case'' and performing a feasibility analysis for a national residential energy efficiency program for new homes, The principal objective of the task wasto estimate the energy consumption of typical homes built in 1980 and then to identify and assess the feasibility of methods to reduce that consumption by 50%. The goal of the program by the year 2000 is to reduce heating and cooling energy use in new homes built under the program to one-half of the energy use in typical new homes built in 1980. The task also calls for determining whether the program goal should be revised, based on the analysis.

  18. 1980 Base case and feasibility analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    1993-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a task of documenting a ``base case`` and performing a feasibility analysis for a national residential energy efficiency program for new homes, The principal objective of the task wasto estimate the energy consumption of typical homes built in 1980 and then to identify and assess the feasibility of methods to reduce that consumption by 50%. The goal of the program by the year 2000 is to reduce heating and cooling energy use in new homes built under the program to one-half of the energy use in typical new homes built in 1980. The task also calls for determining whether the program goal should be revised, based on the analysis.

  19. Solid low-level waste forecasting guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

    1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford`s experience within the last six years. Hanford`s forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford`s annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford`s forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data.

  20. Optimization Online - Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. Fisher

    2007-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Feb 14, 2007 ... Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization. M. Fisher(Mike.Fisher ***at*** ecmwf.int)

  1. 24-hours ahead global irradiation forecasting using Multi-Layer Cyril Voyant1*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Universit de

    ; it is shown that the most relevant is based on a multi- output MLP using endogenous and exogenous input data ahead. In the case of solar plants, the driving factor is the global solar irradiation (sum of direct and diffuse solar radiation projected on a plane (Wh/m)). This paper focuses on the 24-hours ahead forecast

  2. FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions forecasts is 0.05o in latitude and longitude. Solar Radiation model: The model presented in this paper

  3. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural dedicated models to forecast the 12 individual months directly. Results indicate better performance is superior to naïve forecasts based on persistence and seasonality, and is better than results quoted

  4. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing quasi-deterministic components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  5. Two Case Studies on Vision-based Moving Objects Measurement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Ji

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    In this thesis, we presented two case studies on vision-based moving objects measurement. In the first case, we used a monocular camera to perform ego-motion estimation for a robot in an urban area. We developed the algorithm based on vertical line...

  6. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012 includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low energy demand case, and a mid energy demand

  7. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  8. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  9. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  10. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  11. A Simplified Residential Base-Case Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Do, S. L.; Choi, J. H.; Haberl, J. S.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study was for the DOE-2.1e program to develop a simplified residential ASHP house model in Houston, Texas. The house characteristics were based on the standard reference design and requirements as defined in Chapter 4 of the 2009 IECC...

  12. A Web-based Case-based Learning Environment Use in the Didactics of Informatics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kouroupetroglou, Georgios

    A Web-based Case-based Learning Environment ­ Use in the Didactics of Informatics Maria Boubouka@di.uoa.gr Abstract. The present dissertation examines the didactic utilization of cases, specifically through digital and an investigation for the specification of CASTLE in Didactics are presented. Keywords. Cases, Problems, Learning

  13. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  14. Improved Efficiency of Oil Well Drilling through Case Based Reasoning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aamodt, Agnar

    to give the operator valuable advise on how to go about solving the new case. Introduction Drilling of oil1 Improved Efficiency of Oil Well Drilling through Case Based Reasoning Paal Skalle Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Dept. of Petroleum Technology, N-7491, Trondheim, Norway (pskalle

  15. Technology Forecasting Scenario Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

  16. Rainfall-River Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    ;2Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program · Minimize losses due management and enhance America's coastal assets · Expand information for managing America's Water Resources, Precipitation and Water Quality Observations · USACE Reservoir Operation Information, Streamflow, Snowpack

  17. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  18. Signal Analysis of Automotive Engine Spark Ignition System using Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) and Case-based Maintenance (CBM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang, H.; Vong, C. M. [Department of Computer and Information Science, FST, University of Macau (China); Wong, P. K. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, FST, University of Macau (China)

    2010-05-21T23:59:59.000Z

    With the development of modern technology, modern vehicles adopt electronic control system for injection and ignition. In traditional way, whenever there is any malfunctioning in an automotive engine, an automotive mechanic usually performs a diagnosis in the ignition system of the engine to check any exceptional symptoms. In this paper, we present a case-based reasoning (CBR) approach to help solve human diagnosis problem. Nevertheless, one drawback of CBR system is that the case library will be expanded gradually after repeatedly running the system, which may cause inaccuracy and longer time for the CBR retrieval. To tackle this problem, case-based maintenance (CBM) framework is employed so that the case library of the CBR system will be compressed by clustering to produce a set of representative cases. As a result, the performance (in retrieval accuracy and time) of the whole CBR system can be improved.

  19. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    -Gaussian case using the copula transform. On a wind power forecasting task, we show that this probabilisticLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random high-dimensional conditional Gaussian distributions to forecasting wind power and extend it to the non

  20. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  1. Probabilistic wind power forecasting -European Wind Energy Conference -Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Universit de

    Probabilistic wind power forecasting - European Wind Energy Conference - Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting based on kernel density estimators Jeremie Juban jeremie.juban@ensmp.fr; georges.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract Short-term wind power forecasting tools

  2. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  3. Probabilistic manpower forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koonce, James Fitzhugh

    1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1966 Major Subject...: Computer Science and Statistics PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis By JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas A@M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May...

  4. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  5. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  6. Forecasting the underlying potential governing climatic time series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Livina, V N; Mudelsee, M; Lenton, T M

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for `potential analysis' of climatic tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting climate transitions and bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis.

  7. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uranium Processing Facility UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be...

  8. Long Term Forecast ofLong Term Forecast of TsunamisTsunamis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : ImproveImprove NOAANOAA''ss understandingunderstanding and forecast capabilityand forecast capability inin

  9. A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansens, Jim

    A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

  10. FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keller, Arturo A.

    resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

  11. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19T23:59:59.000Z

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (stochastic) model with the weather forecast model (deterministic) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  12. Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation of specialized experts; application to Slovakian and French

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation of specialized experts; application-term forecast of electricity consumption based on ensemble methods. That is, we use several possibly independent´erieure and CNRS. hal-00484940,version1-19May2010 #12;Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation

  13. Steam System Forecasting and Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    '. This and the complex and integrated nature of the plants energy balance makes steam system forecasting and management essential for optimum use of the plant's energy. This paper discusses the method used by Union carbide to accomplish effective forecasting...

  14. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  15. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

    EMGT 835 FIELD PROJECT: Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting By Juan Mario Balandran jmbg@hotmail.com Master of Science The University of Kansas Fall Semester, 2005 An EMGT Field Project report submitted...............................................................................................................................................10 Current Inventory Forecast Process ...........................................................................................10 Development of Alternative Forecast Process...

  16. timber quality Modelling and forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe M E F Y Q U E #12;Valuing and the UK are working closely together to develop a model to help forecast timber growth, yield, quality

  17. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    electricity demand forecast means that the region's electricity needs would grow by 5,343 average megawattsDemand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping

  18. Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting Based on: Amendment No. 6 to Form S-1 (May 9. Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette, Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic Extreme Growth JPMPaper Cauwels and Sornette 840 1110 1820 S1- filing- May 9 2012 1006 1105 1371 Facebook

  19. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  20. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

  1. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantifying PV power output variability, Solar Energy, vol.each solar sen at node i, P(t) the total power output of theSolar Forecasting Historically, traditional power generation technologies such as fossil and nu- clear power which were designed to run in stable output

  2. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  3. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Ed.. Editor: Jan

  4. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  5. Case study data base companion report 3 to simulation of geothermal subsidence (LBL-10571)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, I.; Dershowitz, W.; Jones, K.; Myer, L.; Roman, K.; Schauer, M.

    1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The data base developed for selection and evaluation of geothermal subsidence case studies is presented. Data from this data base were used in case studies of Wairakei, The Geysers, and Austin Bayou Prospect (Report LBL 10571).

  6. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))

    1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.

  7. Verification of hourly forecasts of wind turbine power output

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A verification of hourly average wind speed forecasts in terms of hourly average power output of a MOD-2 was performed for four sites. Site-specific probabilistic transformation models were developed to transform the forecast and observed hourly average speeds to the percent probability of exceedance of an hourly average power output. (This transformation model also appears to have value in predicting annual energy production for use in wind energy feasibility studies.) The transformed forecasts were verified in a deterministic sense (i.e., as continuous values) and in a probabilistic sense (based upon the probability of power output falling in a specified category). Since the smoothing effects of time averaging are very pronounced, the 90% probability of exceedance was built into the transformation models. Semiobjective and objective (model output statistics) forecasts were made compared for the four sites. The verification results indicate that the correct category can be forecast an average of 75% of the time over a 24-hour period. Accuracy generally decreases with projection time out to approx. 18 hours and then may increase due to the fairly regular diurnal wind patterns that occur at many sites. The ability to forecast the correct power output category increases with increasing power output because occurrences of high hourly average power output (near rated) are relatively rare and are generally not forecast. The semiobjective forecasts proved superior to model output statistics in forecasting high values of power output and in the shorter time frames (1 to 6 hours). However, model output statistics were slightly more accurate at other power output levels and times. Noticeable differences were observed between deterministic and probabilistic (categorical) forecast verification results.

  8. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  9. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  10. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  11. ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005.................................................................................................................................3 PACIFIC GAS & ELECTRIC PLANNING AREA ........................................................................................9 Commercial Sector

  12. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

  13. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  14. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission's final forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural gas demand Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand

  15. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the California Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand

  16. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility

  17. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce

  18. Conservation The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    & Resources Creating Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the PNW's Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad's Wild RideNorthwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Dominates ResourceDominates Resource DevelopmentDevelopment Tom EckmanTom Eckman

  19. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency and Demand Analysis Division Scott W. Matthews Acting Executive

  20. Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Robert Stephen

    Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good Technical Report 47 September 1989 Computational Logic Inc the physical behavior of computer programs can reduce these risks for software engineering in the same way that it does for aerospace and other fields of engineering. Present forecasting capabilities for computer

  1. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  2. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system. Phase II, report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Vineyard, T.A.; Das, S.; Lee, R.

    1986-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of the Navy (DON) requires an improved capability to forecast mobility fuel availability and quality. The changing patterns in fuel availability and quality are important in planning the Navy's fuel use strategy and the Mobility Fuels Technology Program. Until recently, there has been a long-term decline in the quality of crude oil entering world markets and a shift in refinery capacities domestically and worldwide. Three publicly available models developed by the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy were selected as the basis of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System (NMFFS). The system was used to analyze the availability and quality of jet fuel (JP-5) and diesel fuel (F-76) that could be produced in several domestic and foreign refinery regions under business-as-usual and four hypothetical world crude oil disruption scenarios in 1990. The results from the study indicate that jet fuel availability could be reduced in some refinery regions under the disruptions studied. Various strategies were investigated for increasing JP-5 production during the disruptions. In general, the availability of JP-5 was more limited than F-76 under the disruption cases studied; however, in all cases one or more strategies were identified to increase refinery output of JP-5 in all study regions. Based on the four hypothetical disruption scenarios studied, the analysis suggested tat JP-5 production could be increased by relaxing the smoke point, freezing point, flash point, and by increasing the refiners' gate price for the jet fuel in the study regions. A more complete analysis of navy mobility fuel trends, as well as several changes in the models to make them easier to use in fuel planning and forecastig studies, are planned as part of the third phase of this program.

  3. Subhourly wind forecasting techniques for wind turbine operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Kosorok, M.R.; Formica, W.J.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Three models for making automated forecasts of subhourly wind and wind power fluctuations were examined to determine the models' appropriateness, accuracy, and reliability in wind forecasting for wind turbine operation. Such automated forecasts appear to have value not only in wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine operating strategies (such as determining when to attempt startup). A simple persistence model, an autoregressive model, and a generalized equivalent Markhov (GEM) model were developed and tested using spring season data from the WKY television tower located near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The three models represent a pure measurement approach, a pure statistical method and a statistical-dynamical model, respectively. Forecasting models of wind speed means and measures of deviations about the mean were developed and tested for all three forecasting techniques for the 45-meter level and for the 10-, 30- and 60-minute time intervals. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a persistence-based approach, using onsite measurements, will probably be superior in the 10-minute time frame. The GEM model appears to have the most potential in 30-minute and longer time frames, particularly when forecasting wind speed fluctuations. However, several improvements to the GEM model are suggested. In comparison to the other models, the autoregressive model performed poorly at all time frames; but, it is recommended that this model be upgraded to an autoregressive moving average (ARMA or ARIMA) model. The primary constraint in adapting the forecasting models to the production of wind turbine cluster power output forecasts is the lack of either actual data, or suitable models, for simulating wind turbine cluster performance.

  4. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN with primary contributions in the area of decision support for reservoir planning and management Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project

  5. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN: California Energy Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Martha

  6. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  7. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  8. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  9. Well casing-based geophysical sensor apparatus, system and method

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Daily, William D. (Livermore, CA)

    2010-03-09T23:59:59.000Z

    A geophysical sensor apparatus, system, and method for use in, for example, oil well operations, and in particular using a network of sensors emplaced along and outside oil well casings to monitor critical parameters in an oil reservoir and provide geophysical data remote from the wells. Centralizers are affixed to the well casings and the sensors are located in the protective spheres afforded by the centralizers to keep from being damaged during casing emplacement. In this manner, geophysical data may be detected of a sub-surface volume, e.g. an oil reservoir, and transmitted for analysis. Preferably, data from multiple sensor types, such as ERT and seismic data are combined to provide real time knowledge of the reservoir and processes such as primary and secondary oil recovery.

  10. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the Energy Information Administrations (EIA) web site. Wein the past, compared the EIAs reference case long-termgas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded

  11. DEFENDER: Detecting and Forecasting Epidemics using Novel Data-analytics for Enhanced Response

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmie, Donal; Hankin, Chris

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In recent years social and news media have increasingly been used to explain patterns in disease activity and progression. Social media data, principally from the Twitter network, has been shown to correlate well with official disease case counts. This fact has been exploited to provide advance warning of outbreak detection, tracking of disease levels and the ability to predict the likelihood of individuals developing symptoms. In this paper we introduce DEFENDER, a software system that integrates data from social and news media and incorporates algorithms for outbreak detection, situational awareness, syndromic case tracking and forecasting. As part of this system we have developed a technique for creating a location network for any country or region based purely on Twitter data. We also present a disease count tracking approach which leverages counts from multiple symptoms, which was found to improve the tracking of diseases by 37 percent over a model that used only previous case data. Finally we attempt to...

  12. GIS-based wind farm site selection: Evaluating the case for New York State

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    GIS-based wind farm site selection: Evaluating the case for New York State E-mail: rv2216@columbia Conference, Saratoga Springs, NY, November 15, 2011 #12;Where to build a 50 MW wind farm? 1. What sites.clca.columbia.edu GIS-based wind farm site selection: evaluating the case for New York State NEARC GIS conference 2011

  13. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  14. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  15. Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ghan, Steven J.

    2009-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is a major anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. However, it is uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and investigated the resulting impact on snowpack and the surface water budget in the western United States. A yearlong simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine an annual budget of soot deposition, followed by two regional climate simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the net solar radiation flux at the surface during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, reduce snow water equivalent amount, and lead to reduced snow accumulation and less spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow covered regions. Our simulations indicate that the change of maximum snow albedo induced by soot on snow contributes to 60% of the net albedo reduction over the central Rockies. Snowpack reduction accounts for the additional 40%.

  16. Forecasting change of the magnetic field using core surface flows and ensemble Kalman filtering

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forecasting change of the magnetic field using core surface flows and ensemble Kalman filtering C-based observatories. We therefore present a method using Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF) to produce an optimal (2009), Forecasting change of the magnetic field using core surface flows and ensemble Kalman filtering

  17. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. This information is then applied to stitch images together into largermoreviews, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the systems ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.less

  18. Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da products Supercomputer Facilities DSA/CPTEC-INPE Monitoring products based on remote sensing Training products Numerical Forecast Products Weather discussion Colleting data platform #12;Atmospheric Chemistry

  19. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations the Northern Study Area.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

    2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

  20. Optimization Online - Passenger Name Record Data Mining Based ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dolores Romero Morales

    2008-04-16T23:59:59.000Z

    Apr 16, 2008 ... Passenger Name Record Data Mining Based Cancellation Forecasting for Revenue Management. Dolores Romero...

  1. Case Study - Hill Air Force Base, Utah | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and 350,000 for task orders 1 and 2. Implementation of an initiative to replace faulty steam traps throughout the Base will result in annual savings of about 1 million. There may...

  2. FAA (federal Aviation Administration) aviation forecasts - fiscal years 1983-1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains the Fiscal Years 1983-1994 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) forecasts of aviation activity at FAA facilities. These include airports with FAA control towers, air route traffic control centers, and flight service stations. Detailed forecasts were made for the four major users of the national aviation system: air carriers, air taxi/commuters, general aviation and the military. The forecasts have been prepared to meet the budget and planning needs of the constituent units of the FAA and to provide information that can be used by state and local authorities, by the aviation industry and the general public. The overall outlook for the forecast period is for moderate economic growth, relatively stable real fuel prices, and decreasing inflation. Based upon these assumptions, aviation activity is forecast to increase by Fiscal Year 1994 by 97 percent at towered airports, 50 percent at air route traffic control centers, and 54 percent in flight services performed. Hours flown by general aviation is forecast to increase 56 percent and helicopter hours flown 80 percent. Scheduled domestic revenue passenger miles (RPM's) are forecast to increase 81 percent, with scheduled international RPM's forecast to increase by 80 percent and commuter RPM's forecast to increase by 220 percent.

  3. A Kalman-filter bias correction of ozone deterministic, ensemble-averaged, and probabilistic forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monache, L D; Grell, G A; McKeen, S; Wilczak, J; Pagowski, M O; Peckham, S; Stull, R; McHenry, J; McQueen, J

    2006-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Kalman filtering (KF) is used to postprocess numerical-model output to estimate systematic errors in surface ozone forecasts. It is implemented with a recursive algorithm that updates its estimate of future ozone-concentration bias by using past forecasts and observations. KF performance is tested for three types of ozone forecasts: deterministic, ensemble-averaged, and probabilistic forecasts. Eight photochemical models were run for 56 days during summer 2004 over northeastern USA and southern Canada as part of the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation New England Air Quality (AQ) Study. The raw and KF-corrected predictions are compared with ozone measurements from the Aerometric Information Retrieval Now data set, which includes roughly 360 surface stations. The completeness of the data set allowed a thorough sensitivity test of key KF parameters. It is found that the KF improves forecasts of ozone-concentration magnitude and the ability to predict rare events, both for deterministic and ensemble-averaged forecasts. It also improves the ability to predict the daily maximum ozone concentration, and reduces the time lag between the forecast and observed maxima. For this case study, KF considerably improves the predictive skill of probabilistic forecasts of ozone concentration greater than thresholds of 10 to 50 ppbv, but it degrades it for thresholds of 70 to 90 ppbv. Moreover, KF considerably reduces probabilistic forecast bias. The significance of KF postprocessing and ensemble-averaging is that they are both effective for real-time AQ forecasting. KF reduces systematic errors, whereas ensemble-averaging reduces random errors. When combined they produce the best overall forecast.

  4. Load flow analysis: Base cases, data, diagrams, and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Portante, E.C.; Kavicky, J.A.; VanKuiken, J.C.; Peerenboom, J.P.

    1997-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes how an electric utility system is modeled by using load flow techniques to establish a validated power flow case suitable for simulating and evaluating alternative system scenarios. Details of the load flow model are supported by additional technical and descriptive information intended to correlate modeled electrical system parameters with the corresponding physical equipment that makes up the system. Pictures and technical specifications of system equipment from the utility, public, or vendor are provided to support this association for many system components. The report summarizes the load flow model construction, simulation, and validation and describes the general capabilities of an information query system designed to access load flow parameters and other electrical system information.

  5. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  6. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  7. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  8. Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    forecasting methods and better integration of advanced wind power forecasts into system and plant operations and wind power plants) ­ Review and assess current practices Propose and test new and improved approachesWind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud

  9. 1995 shipment review & five year forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fetherolf, D.J. Jr. [East Penn Manufacturing Co., Inc., Lyon Station, PA (United States)

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the 1995 battery shipment review and five year forecast for the battery market. Historical data is discussed.

  10. Case-Based Reasoning vs Parametric Models for Software Quality Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menzies, Tim

    staff hours), and time (elapsed calendar months). In the first way, we construct a parametric model from historical cases. Aim: To assess case-based reasoning vs parametric modeling for quality Descriptors D.2.9 [Software Engineering]: Management--Software quality assurance; D.2.9 [Software Engineering

  11. Fuel Cycle Analysis Framework Base Cases for the IAEA/INPRO GAINS Collaborative Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brent Dixon

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Thirteen countries participated in the Collaborative Project GAINS Global Architecture of Innovative Nuclear Energy Systems Based on Thermal and Fast Reactors Including a Closed Fuel Cycle, which was the primary activity within the IAEA/INPRO Program Area B: Global Vision on Sustainable Nuclear Energy for the last three years. The overall objective of GAINS was to develop a standard framework for assessing future nuclear energy systems taking into account sustainable development, and to validate results through sample analyses. This paper details the eight scenarios that constitute the GAINS framework base cases for analysis of the transition to future innovative nuclear energy systems. The framework base cases provide a reference for users of the framework to start from in developing and assessing their own alternate systems. Each base case is described along with performance results against the GAINS sustainability evaluation metrics. The eight cases include four using a moderate growth projection and four using a high growth projection for global nuclear electricity generation through 2100. The cases are divided into two sets, addressing homogeneous and heterogeneous scenarios developed by GAINS to model global fuel cycle strategies. The heterogeneous world scenario considers three separate nuclear groups based on their fuel cycle strategies, with non-synergistic and synergistic cases. The framework base case analyses results show the impact of these different fuel cycle strategies while providing references for future users of the GAINS framework. A large number of scenario alterations are possible and can be used to assess different strategies, different technologies, and different assumptions about possible futures of nuclear power. Results can be compared to the framework base cases to assess where these alternate cases perform differently versus the sustainability indicators.

  12. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  13. Evaluation of a case-based Reasoning Energy Prediction Tool for Commercial Buildings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monfet, D.; Arkhipova, E.; Choiniere, D.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents the results of an energy predictor that predicts the energy demand of commercial buildings using Case Based Reasoning (CBR). The proposed approach is evaluated using monitored data in a real office building located in Varennes...

  14. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  15. European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind Generation by a Dynamic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Universit de

    European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind. Abstract-Short-term wind power forecasting is recognized nowadays as a major requirement for a secure and economic integration of wind power in a power system. In the case of large-scale integration, end users

  16. Urban tree maintenance scheduling: a case study using Fort Worth's METRIS geo data base

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mirenda, Joseph Salvatore

    1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    URBAN TREE MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING: A CASE STUDY USING FORT WORTH'S METRIS GEO DATA BASE A Thesis JOSEPH SALVATORE MIRENDA Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree... of MASTER OF SCIENCE December, 1981 Major Subject: Forestry URBAN TREE MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING: A CASE STUDY USING FORT WORTH'S METRIS GEO DATA BASE A Thesis by JOSEPH SALVATORE MIRENDA Approved as to style and content by: Dr. Robert D. Baker...

  17. An approach to the teaching of Korean particles based on case grammar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kang, Joo Ok

    1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    AN APPROACH TO THE TEACHING OF KOREAN PARTICLES BASED ON CASE GRAKMAR A Thesis JOO OK KANG Submitted to the Graduate College of' Texas MM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS December 197...$ Major Subject: English AN APPROACH TO THE TEACHING OF KOREAN PARTICLES BASED ON CASE GRAMMAR A Thesis by JOO OK KANG Approved as to style and content by~ H ad f Department Member Q. &= Member December 197$ ABSTRACT An Approach...

  18. Forecasting potential project risks through leading indicators to project outcome

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Ji Won

    2007-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

    , the Construction Industry Institute (CII) formed a research team to develop a new tool that can forecast the potential risk of not meeting specific project outcomes based on assessing leading indicators. Thus, the leading indicators were identified and then the new...

  19. Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cerpa, Alberto E.

    Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

  20. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13T23:59:59.000Z

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  1. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  2. Calculator simplifies field production forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bixler, B.

    1982-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of forecasting future field production from an assumed average well production schedule and drilling schedule has been programmed for the HP-41C hand-held programmable computer. No longer must tedious row summations be made by hand for staggered well production schedules. Details of the program are provided.

  3. Energy consumption and expenditure projections by population group on the basis of the annual energy outlook 1999 forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poyer, D.A.; Balsley, J.H.

    2000-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents an analysis of the relative impact of the base-case scenario used in Annual Energy Outlook 1999 on different population groups. Projections of energy consumption and expenditures, as well as energy expenditure as a share of income, from 1996 to 2020 are given. The projected consumption of electricty, natural gas, distillate fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas during this period is also reported for each population group. In addition, this report compares the findings of the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 report with the 1998 report. Changes in certain indicators and information affect energy use forecasts, and these effects are analyzed and discussed.

  4. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the flying brick technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  5. VALIDATION OF PV PERFORMANCE MODELS USING SATELLITE-BASED IRRADIANCE MEASUREMENTS: A CASE STUDY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    VALIDATION OF PV PERFORMANCE MODELS USING SATELLITE-BASED IRRADIANCE MEASUREMENTS: A CASE STUDY Clean Power Research Kirkland, WA e-mail: aparkins@cleanpower.com ABSTRACT Photovoltaic (PV) system and existing PV systems under a wide variety of environmental conditions. Ground based meteorological

  6. A Conceptual Framework for Semantic Case-based Safety Analysis Olawande Daramola, Tor Stlhane

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .biffl}@tuwien.ac.at Abstract Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) Analysis and Fail- ure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) are among-based framework for safety analy- sis, which facilitates the reuse of previous HAZOP and FMEA experiences in order application. Key words: Safety analysis, HAZOP, FMEA, ontology, requirements, case-based reasoning, natural

  7. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. Phase I report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, R.M.; Hadder, G.R.; Singh, S.P.N.; Whittle, C.

    1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of the Navy (DON) requires an improved capability to forecast mobility fuel availability and quality. The changing patterns in fuel availability and quality are important in planning the Navy's Mobility Fuels R and D Program. These changes come about primarily because of the decline in the quality of crude oil entering world markets as well as the shifts in refinery capabilities domestically and worldwide. The DON requested ORNL's assistance in assembling and testing a methodology for forecasting mobility fuel trends. ORNL reviewed and analyzed domestic and world oil reserve estimates, production and price trends, and recent refinery trends. Three publicly available models developed by the Department of Energy were selected as the basis of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. The system was used to analyze the availability and quality of jet fuel (JP-5) that could be produced on the West Coast of the United States under an illustrative business-as-usual and a world oil disruption scenario in 1990. Various strategies were investigated for replacing the lost JP-5 production. This exercise, which was strictly a test case for the forecasting system, suggested that full recovery of lost fuel production could be achieved by relaxing the smoke point specifications or by increasing the refiners' gate price for the jet fuel. A more complete analysis of military mobility fuel trends is currently under way.

  8. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    andvalidation. SolarEnergy. 73:5,307? Perez,R. ,irradianceforecastsforsolarenergyapplicationsbasedonusingsatellitedata. SolarEnergy67:1?3,139?150.

  9. Efficient market model: within-sample fit versus out-of-sample forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cheng, Chi

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    has been the center of considerable attention in the applied econometric literature. The criterion Predictive Least Squares (PLS) based on actual postsample forecasting performance is proposed to identify a time series model. The criterion is applied...

  10. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  11. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for Renewable Energy: Grid IntegrationReport AvailableForecasting NREL researchers use

  12. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  13. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  14. Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ross, M.H. [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (US). Dept. of Physics; Thimmapuram, P.; Fisher, R.E.; Maciorowski, W. [Argonne National Lab., IL (US)

    1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

  15. Comparison of Various Deterministic Forecasting Techniques in Shale Gas Reservoirs with Emphasis on the Duong Method

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Joshi, Krunal Jaykant

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    variation of the Duong model proves to be a robust model for most of the well cases and flow regimes. The modified Duong has been shown to work best compared to other deterministic models in most cases. For grouped datasets the SPED & Duong models forecast...

  16. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  17. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  18. Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

    1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

  19. Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sancetta, Alessio

    the single individual forecasts. Several studies have shown that combining forecasts can be a useful hedge against structural breaks, and forecast combinations are often more stable than single forecasts (e.g. Hendry and Clements, 2004, Stock and Watson, 2004... in expectations. Hence, we have the following. Corollary 4 Suppose maxt?T kl (Yt, hwt,Xti)kr ? A taking expectation on the left hand side, adding 2A ? T and setting ? = 0 in mT (?), i.e. TX t=1 E [lt (wt)? lt (ut...

  20. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American...

  1. U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kamat, Vineet R.

    U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast Spring Fall 2012 As of December 15, 2011 Prepared by AEC Preliminary & Advisory #12;U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 Overview Campus by campus Snapshot in time Not all projects Construction coordination efforts

  2. Robust Secure Transmission in MISO Channels Based on Worst-Case Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huang, Jing

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper studies robust transmission schemes for multiple-input single-output (MISO) wiretap channels. Both the cases of direct transmission and cooperative jamming with a helper are investigated with imperfect channel state information (CSI) for the eavesdropper links. Robust transmit covariance matrices are obtained based on worst-case secrecy rate maximization, under both individual and global power constraints. For the case of an individual power constraint, we show that the non-convex maximin optimization problem can be transformed into a quasiconvex problem that can be efficiently solved with existing methods. For a global power constraint, the joint optimization of the transmit covariance matrices and power allocation between the source and the helper is studied via geometric programming. We also study the robust wiretap transmission problem for the case with a quality-of-service constraint at the legitimate receiver. Numerical results show the advantage of the proposed robust design. In particular, ...

  3. Dynamic Management of Internet Telephony Servers: A Case Study based on JavaBeans and JDMK

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    management systems. The results of our work allow us to evaluate JDMK regarding its suitability for the mana such as CORBA and JavaBeans are gaining in- creasing importance for the integrated management of net- worksDynamic Management of Internet Telephony Servers: A Case Study based on JavaBeans and JDMK

  4. A Competency-Based Learning Resource Retrieval Process : The LUISA-UHP Case-Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    A Competency-Based Learning Resource Retrieval Process : The LUISA-UHP Case-Study Monique Grandbastien1 1 LORIA, Universit Henri Poincar Nancy1, France monique.grandbastien@loria.fr Abstract to the major challenges in the search, interchange and delivery of learning objects in a inria-00423930,version

  5. Risk-based modelling of surface water quality: a case study of the Charles River, Massachusetts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wagener, Thorsten

    : Water quality; Risk; Monte Carlo; Sensitivity analysis; Eutrophication 1. Introduction 1.1. Motivation recognised in the development of some decision-support tools, for example, QUAL2E- UNCAS (Brown and BarnwellRisk-based modelling of surface water quality: a case study of the Charles River, Massachusetts

  6. A Case-Based Conceptual Design Information Server for Concurrent Engineering1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Agogino, Alice M.

    1 A Case-Based Conceptual Design Information Server for Concurrent Engineering1 William H. Wood III been focused on the functionality of an artifact to be provided to a customer. Concurrent engineering i n concurrent engineering are indexed to provide access through multiple interfaces, allowing

  7. IMPROVING CARE AT THE END OF LIFE: AN AUTOMATED CASE-BASED REASONING APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kopec, Danny

    IMPROVING CARE AT THE END OF LIFE: AN AUTOMATED CASE-BASED REASONING APPROACH Suzanne Tamang younger patients. Targeting system wide "error- reducing" reforms at vulnerable populations (who are disproportionately affected, both in terms of incidence and severity) can improve the quality of care delivered

  8. APPLYING CASE-BASED REASONING IN THE EVOLUTION OF DEFORESTATION PATTERNS IN THE BRAZILIAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Camara, Gilberto

    APPLYING CASE-BASED REASONING IN THE EVOLUTION OF DEFORESTATION PATTERNS IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZONIA, gilberto, leila, isabel, olga}@dpi.inpe.br ABSTRACT Patterns of deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia to establish rules and detect object deforestation evolution in an Amazonia region. The objects were analyzed

  9. SafeCert 2008 Model-Based Safety-Cases for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    characterisations. From this, open research issues are derived. Keywords: Safety case, model-based, structured approaches exist: Leveson et al. [7] describe an FTA-like approach to examine Ada programs, while Giese et al hazards to determine how much of a threat they pose, i.e. the severity and likelihood of potential

  10. From Application to ASIP-based FPGA prototype: a Case Study on Turbo Decoding

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Muller, Olivier

    From Application to ASIP-based FPGA prototype: a Case Study on Turbo Decoding Olivier Muller, Amer turbo decoder. It introduces turbo decoding application and proposes an Application-Specific Instruction when decoding a double binary turbo code with 5 iterations. 1. Introduction Applications in the field

  11. Human-robot interactions: model-based risk analysis and safety case construction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guiochet, Jrmie

    Human-robot interactions: model-based risk analysis and safety case construction Quynh Anh DO HOANG potential threats related to physical human-robot interactions and to assess the associated risks that might affect safety and dependability. Because of the complexity of human-robot interactions, rigorous

  12. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts makeCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY

  13. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  14. 1992 five year battery forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amistadi, D.

    1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Five-year trends for automotive and industrial batteries are projected. Topic covered include: SLI shipments; lead consumption; automotive batteries (5-year annual growth rates); industrial batteries (standby power and motive power); estimated average battery life by area/country for 1989; US motor vehicle registrations; replacement battery shipments; potential lead consumption in electric vehicles; BCI recycling rates for lead-acid batteries; US average car/light truck battery life; channels of distribution; replacement battery inventory end July; 2nd US battery shipment forecast.

  15. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluating A PotentialJumpGermanFife Energy Park atFisiaFlorida:Forecast Energy Jump to:

  16. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  17. Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo Oldenburg University have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius, 1981), when daily solar radiation forecasts

  18. Alternative methods for forecasting GDP Dominique Gugan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Universit de

    analysis. Better forecast performance for macroeconomic variables will lead to Paris School of Economics the speed of computers that can develop search algorithms from appropriate selection criteria, Devroye. 1 Introduction Forecasting macroeconomic variables such as GDP and inflation play an important role

  19. A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vertes, Akos

    APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Tara M. Sinclair , H.O. Stekler, and Warren Carnow Department of Economics The George Washington University Monroe Hall #340 2115 G Street NW Washington, DC 20052 JEL Codes, Mahalanobis Distance Abstract This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts

  20. 2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing and Economics at California State University, Fullerton, the largest accredited business school in California

  1. Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Luke D.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    /effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a...

  2. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  3. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency SEPTEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SDV1REV CALIFORNIA The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand and Methods

  4. A Hybrid Rule-Based/Case-Based Reasoning Approach for Service Fault Diagnosis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    affecting the service quality and a reasonable balance between the fault management effort and the costs of network and systems management. Our hybrid architecture consists of a rule-based reasoning module, whose in opposition to network and systems management. While the events that are encountered in network and systems

  5. Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP results for the base case and scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems

    2009-12-03T23:59:59.000Z

    The NEMS-MP model generates numerous results for each run of a scenario. (This model is the integrated National Energy Modeling System [NEMS] version used for the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study [MP].) This appendix examines additional findings beyond the primary results reported in the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses (Reference 1). These additional results are provided in order to help further illuminate some of the primary results. Specifically discussed in this appendix are: (1) Energy use results for light vehicles (LVs), including details about the underlying total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), the average vehicle fuel economy, and the volumes of the different fuels used; (2) Resource fuels and their use in the production of ethanol, hydrogen (H{sub 2}), and electricity; (3) Ethanol use in the scenarios (i.e., the ethanol consumption in E85 vs. other blends, the percent of travel by flex fuel vehicles on E85, etc.); (4) Relative availability of E85 and H2 stations; (5) Fuel prices; (6) Vehicle prices; and (7) Consumer savings. These results are discussed as follows: (1) The three scenarios (Mixed, (P)HEV & Ethanol, and H2 Success) when assuming vehicle prices developed through literature review; (2) The three scenarios with vehicle prices that incorporate the achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) program vehicle cost goals; (3) The three scenarios with 'literature review' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies; and (4) The three scenarios with 'program goals' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies. The four versions or cases of each scenario are referred to as: Literature Review No Subsidies, Program Goals No Subsidies, Literature Review with Subsidies, and Program Goals with Subsidies. Two additional points must be made here. First, none of the results presented for LVs in this section include Class 2B trucks. Results for this class are included occasionally in Reference 1. They represent a small, though noticeable, segment of the 'LV plus 2B' market (e.g., a little more than 3% of today's energy use in that market). We generally do not include them in this discussion, simply because it requires additional effort to combine the NEMS-MP results for them with the results for the other LVs. (Where there is an exception, we will indicate so.) Second, where reference is made to E85, the ethanol content is actually 74%. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) assumes that, to address cold-starting issues, the percent of ethanol in E85 will vary seasonally. The EIA uses an annual average ethanol content of 74% in its forecasts. That assumption is maintained in the NEMS-MP scenario runs.

  6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    procurement process at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast models. Both the staff draft energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly and commercial sectors. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather

  7. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and water pumping sectors. Mark Ciminelli forecasted energy for transportation, communication and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast

  8. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  9. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  10. Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Islam, M. Saif

    Page 1 Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey

  11. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

  12. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  13. An adaptive neural network approach to one-week ahead load forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, T.M. (Pacific Gas and Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (United States)); Hubele, N.F.; Karady, G.G. (Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States))

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A new neural network approach is applied to one-week ahead load forecasting. This approach uses a linear adaptive neuron or adaptive linear combiner called Adaline.'' An energy spectrum is used to analyze the periodic components in a load sequence. The load sequence mainly consists of three components: base load component, and low and high frequency load components. Each load component has a unique frequency range. Load decomposition is made for the load sequence using digital filters with different passband frequencies. After load decomposition, each load component can be forecasted by an Adaline. Each Adaline has an input sequence, an output sequence, and a desired response-signal sequence. It also has a set of adjustable parameters called the weight vector. In load forecasting, the weight vector is designed to make the output sequence, the forecasted load, follow the actual load sequence; it also has a minimized Least Mean Square error. This approach is useful in forecasting unit scheduling commitments. Mean absolute percentage errors of less than 3.4 percent are derived from five months of utility data, thus demonstrating the high degree of accuracy that can be obtained without dependence on weather forecasts.

  14. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    supervised data preparation. Steven Mac and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Cynthia Rogers generation, conservation, energy efficiency, climate zone, investorowned, public, utilities, additional

  15. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  16. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  17. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  18. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  19. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  20. Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks...

  1. Modeling, History Matching, Forecasting and Analysis of Shale Reservoirs Performance Using Artificial Intelligence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    matching, forecasting and analyzing oil and gas production in shale reservoirs. In this new approach and analysis of oil and gas production from shale formations. Examples of three case studies in Lower Huron and New Albany shale formations (gas producing) and Bakken Shale (oil producing) is presented

  2. Hybrid methodology for hourly global radiation forecasting in Mediterranean area

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Voyant, Cyril; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie Laure

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The renewable energies prediction and particularly global radiation forecasting is a challenge studied by a growing number of research teams. This paper proposes an original technique to model the insolation time series based on combining Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. While ANN by its non-linear nature is effective to predict cloudy days, ARMA techniques are more dedicated to sunny days without cloud occurrences. Thus, three hybrids models are suggested: the first proposes simply to use ARMA for 6 months in spring and summer and to use an optimized ANN for the other part of the year; the second model is equivalent to the first but with a seasonal learning; the last model depends on the error occurred the previous hour. These models were used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. The forecasting performance was compared among several models: the 3 above mentioned models, the best ANN and ARMA for each location. In t...

  3. Evaluation of a case-based Reasoning Energy Prediction Tool for Commercial Buildings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monfet, D.; Arkhipova, E.; Choiniere, D.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    demand of the building such as whole building energy simulation, regression analysis, and black-box models (e.g., artificial neural networks). In this paper, Case-Based Reasoning (CBR), a machine-learning artificial intelligence technique, is used... area of 5300 m2 (57 050 ft2) and consists of two main sections of roughly equal size: (1) offices and conference rooms and (2) testing laboratories. The HVAC equipment consists of seven air handling units served by an air cooled chiller, ice...

  4. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast W ith natural gas prices significantlyof AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  5. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to accurately forecast natural gas prices. Many policyseek alternative methods to forecast natural gas prices. Thethe accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported

  6. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Natural Gas Price Forecast Although natural gas prices areof AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  7. Availability Assessment of SunOS/Solaris Unix Systems based on Syslogd and wtmpx log files: A case study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Universit de

    Availability Assessment of SunOS/Solaris Unix Systems based on Syslogd and wtmpx log files: A case 4 -- France Mohamed.Kaaniche@laas.fr Abstract This paper presents a measurement-based availability, downtimes and availability based on the identification of failures that caused total service loss. Data

  8. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  9. Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Douches, David S.

    Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use have come to expect. Potato late blight risk models were some of the earliest weather-based models. This analysis compares two types of potato late blight risk models that were originally trained on location

  10. A self-adaptive case-based reasoning system for dose planning in prostate cancer radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mishra, Nishikant; Petrovic, Sanja; Sundar, Santhanam [Automated Scheduling, Optimisation and Planning Research Group, School of Computer Science, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG8 1BB (United Kingdom); Department of Oncology, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham NG5 1PB (United Kingdom)

    2011-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Purpose: Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in the male population. Radiotherapy is often used in the treatment for prostate cancer. In radiotherapy treatment, the oncologist makes a trade-off between the risk and benefit of the radiation, i.e., the task is to deliver a high dose to the prostate cancer cells and minimize side effects of the treatment. The aim of our research is to develop a software system that will assist the oncologist in planning new treatments. Methods: A nonlinear case-based reasoning system is developed to capture the expertise and experience of oncologists in treating previous patients. Importance (weights) of different clinical parameters in the dose planning is determined by the oncologist based on their past experience, and is highly subjective. The weights are usually fixed in the system. In this research, the weights are updated automatically each time after generating a treatment plan for a new patient using a group based simulated annealing approach. Results: The developed approach is analyzed on the real data set collected from the Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, City Hospital Campus, UK. Extensive experiments show that the dose plan suggested by the proposed method is coherent with the dose plan prescribed by an experienced oncologist or even better. Conclusions: The developed case-based reasoning system enables the use of knowledge and experience gained by the oncologist in treating new patients. This system may play a vital role to assist the oncologist in making a better decision in less computational time; it utilizes the success rate of the previously treated patients and it can also be used in teaching and training processes.

  11. Familial history of cancer and childhood acute leukemia: a French population-based case-control study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Universit de

    1 Familial history of cancer and childhood acute leukemia: a French population- based case acute leukemia (AL). Methods: The history of cancer in the relatives of 472 cases was compared the hypothesis that a familial history of cancer may play a role in the etiology of childhood acute leukemia

  12. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  13. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast..................................................................................................................................... 2 Economic Growth Assumptions

  14. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet...

  15. Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Datta, Shoumen

    2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...

  16. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  17. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  18. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  19. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  20. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  1. TOWARD RELIABLE BENCHMARKING OF SOLAR FLARE FORECASTING METHODS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bloomfield, D. Shaun; Higgins, Paul A.; Gallagher, Peter T. [Astrophysics Research Group, School of Physics, Trinity College Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2 (Ireland); McAteer, R. T. James, E-mail: shaun.bloomfield@tcd.ie [Department of Astronomy, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003-8001 (United States)

    2012-03-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X-ray flares and McIntosh group classifications from solar cycles 21 and 22 to calculate average flare rates for each McIntosh class and use these to determine Poisson probabilities for different flare magnitudes. Forecast verification measures are studied to find optimum thresholds to convert Poisson flare probabilities into yes/no predictions of cycle 23 flares. A case is presented to adopt the true skill statistic (TSS) as a standard for forecast comparison over the commonly used Heidke skill score (HSS). In predicting flares over 24 hr, the maximum values of TSS achieved are 0.44 (C-class), 0.53 (M-class), 0.74 (X-class), 0.54 ({>=}M1.0), and 0.46 ({>=}C1.0). The maximum values of HSS are 0.38 (C-class), 0.27 (M-class), 0.14 (X-class), 0.28 ({>=}M1.0), and 0.41 ({>=}C1.0). These show that Poisson probabilities perform comparably to some more complex prediction systems, but the overall inaccuracy highlights the problem with using average values to represent flaring rate distributions.

  2. Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1 1 Great Lakes forecasts in operational hydrology builds a sample of possibilities for the future, of climate series from-parametric method can be extended into a new weighted parametric hydrological forecasting technique to allow

  3. A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

  4. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  5. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make assumptions about fuel price forecastsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY ENERGY COMMISSION Gordon Schremp, Jim Page, and Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Principal Authors Jim Page Project

  6. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

  7. An analysis of winter precipitation in the northeast and a winter weather precipitation type forecasting tool for New York City

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gordon, Christopher James

    1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    1's accuracy in forecasting frozen precipitation. . . . 60 23 25 Same as FIG. 22 except for model 2 . . . . Same as FIG. 22 except for model 3 . . . . Same as FIG. 22 except for model 4 . . . . 61 62 26 Histogram of responses for snow cases... to the logistic regression analysis of snow cases versus rain cases for model 1. 64 FIGURE Page 27 Histogram of responses for rain cases to the logistic regression analysis of snow cases versus rain cases for model 1 28 Histogram of responses for snow cases...

  8. Multiagent Bayesian Forecasting of Structural Time-Invariant Dynamic Systems with

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xiang, Yang

    . Alternatively, time series are represented by state-space models, also referred to as multivariate dynamic and science. We study forecasting of stochastic, dynamic systems based on observations from multivariate time to a discrete time, multivariate time series [1, 2]. The primary inference that we address is one- step

  9. Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP) Forecasts ELIZABETH E. EBERT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ebert, Beth

    for more than 300 deaths in the United States during the period 1970­99, including 50 deaths related landfall in the United States between 2004 and 2008 shows that the eTRaP rain amounts are more accurate-h rain forecast based on estimated rain rates from microwave sensors aboard polar

  10. IEEE JOURNAL OF SELECTED TOPICS IN SIGNAL PROCESSING (TO APPEAR, 2014) 1 Electricity Market Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannakis, Georgios

    to spatially-varying energy prices, known as locational marginal prices (LMPs) [24], [17]. Schemes inference. Day-ahead price forecast- ing is cast as a low-rank kernel learning problem. Uniquely exploiting- temporally varying prices. Through a novel nuclear norm-based regularization, kernels across pricing nodes

  11. VALIDATION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM OPERATIONAL SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS IN THE US

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    VALIDATION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM OPERATIONAL SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS IN THE US Richard Perez This paper presents an initial validation of a solar radiation service that provides historical, as well observed solar radiation conditions based on immediate measured history: The position and impact of future

  12. ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION TO SANTIAGO DE CHILE)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bertossi, Leopoldo

    ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION Chile and other cities in Chile, air pollution is a dramatic problem. An Environmental Information planning. Using a model-based EIS for air pollution it is possible (i) to study complex source

  13. Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lang, K.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    capital requirements and research and development programs in the alum inum industry. : CONCLUSIONS Forecasting the use of conservation techndlo gies with a market penetration model provides la more accountable method of projecting aggrega...

  14. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    said. "In the same way we check the weather each morning, individuals and public health officials can monitor disease incidence and plan for the future based on today's...

  15. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , Gary Occhiuzzo, and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Don Schultz and Doug Kemmer developed. California Energy Commission, Electricity Supply Analysis Division. Publication Number: CEC2002012001CMFVI

  16. Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

  17. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sripada, Yaji

    for generating textual summaries. Our algorithm has been implemented in a weather forecast generation system. 1 presentation, aid human understanding of the underlying data sets. SUMTIME is a research project aiming turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP

  18. Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olascoaga, Maria Josefina

    Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns María J. Olascoagaa,1 and George of Mexico in 2010. We present a methodology to predict major short-term changes in en- vironmental River's mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting fire could not be extinguished and the drilling rig

  19. New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, Joo Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined

  20. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency DECEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SFV1 CALIFORNIA and expertise of numerous California Energy Commission staff members in the Demand Analysis Office. In addition

  1. SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gambardella, Luca Maria

    SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL Luca Maria Gambardella1 , Gianluca@idsia.ch 2 LCST, La Spezia Container Terminal, La Spezia (IT) 3 DSP, Data System & Planning sa, Manno (CH working in intermodal container terminals. INTRODUCTION The amount of work a container terminal deals

  2. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  3. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  4. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  5. Traffic congestion forecasting model for the INFORM System. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Azarm, A.; Mughabghab, S.; Stock, D.

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a computerized traffic forecasting model, developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for a portion of the Long Island INFORM Traffic Corridor. The model has gone through a testing phase, and currently is able to make accurate traffic predictions up to one hour forward in time. The model will eventually take on-line traffic data from the INFORM system roadway sensors and make projections as to future traffic patterns, thus allowing operators at the New York State Department of Transportation (D.O.T.) INFORM Traffic Management Center to more optimally manage traffic. It can also form the basis of a travel information system. The BNL computer model developed for this project is called ATOP for Advanced Traffic Occupancy Prediction. The various modules of the ATOP computer code are currently written in Fortran and run on PC computers (pentium machine) faster than real time for the section of the INFORM corridor under study. The following summarizes the various routines currently contained in the ATOP code: Statistical forecasting of traffic flow and occupancy using historical data for similar days and time (long term knowledge), and the recent information from the past hour (short term knowledge). Estimation of the empirical relationships between traffic flow and occupancy using long and short term information. Mechanistic interpolation using macroscopic traffic models and based on the traffic flow and occupancy forecasted (item-1), and the empirical relationships (item-2) for the specific highway configuration at the time of simulation (construction, lane closure, etc.). Statistical routine for detection and classification of anomalies and their impact on the highway capacity which are fed back to previous items.

  6. Special Topics -Summer 2013 Financial Forecasting: A Case Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin, Xiaodong

    :799:676:60 Index: 94689 In addition to covering the fundamentals of Lean and Six Sigma, this course will equip improvement methodology and tools, lean manufacturing tools and approaches, dashboards and other business. While cost-focused supply chain improvements like sourcing, lean manufacturing, contract manufacturing

  7. Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of atmospheric data, increased computational power, and the continued im- provement of ... speed, and radiances, and are taken from satellites, buoys, planes, boats, ..... there is a large difference in cost between these two operations

  8. An approach to model validation and model-based prediction -- polyurethane foam case study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dowding, Kevin J.; Rutherford, Brian Milne

    2003-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Enhanced software methodology and improved computing hardware have advanced the state of simulation technology to a point where large physics-based codes can be a major contributor in many systems analyses. This shift toward the use of computational methods has brought with it new research challenges in a number of areas including characterization of uncertainty, model validation, and the analysis of computer output. It is these challenges that have motivated the work described in this report. Approaches to and methods for model validation and (model-based) prediction have been developed recently in the engineering, mathematics and statistical literatures. In this report we have provided a fairly detailed account of one approach to model validation and prediction applied to an analysis investigating thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam. A model simulates the evolution of the foam in a high temperature environment as it transforms from a solid to a gas phase. The available modeling and experimental results serve as data for a case study focusing our model validation and prediction developmental efforts on this specific thermal application. We discuss several elements of the ''philosophy'' behind the validation and prediction approach: (1) We view the validation process as an activity applying to the use of a specific computational model for a specific application. We do acknowledge, however, that an important part of the overall development of a computational simulation initiative is the feedback provided to model developers and analysts associated with the application. (2) We utilize information obtained for the calibration of model parameters to estimate the parameters and quantify uncertainty in the estimates. We rely, however, on validation data (or data from similar analyses) to measure the variability that contributes to the uncertainty in predictions for specific systems or units (unit-to-unit variability). (3) We perform statistical analyses and hypothesis tests as a part of the validation step to provide feedback to analysts and modelers. Decisions on how to proceed in making model-based predictions are made based on these analyses together with the application requirements. Updating modifying and understanding the boundaries associated with the model are also assisted through this feedback. (4) We include a ''model supplement term'' when model problems are indicated. This term provides a (bias) correction to the model so that it will better match the experimental results and more accurately account for uncertainty. Presumably, as the models continue to develop and are used for future applications, the causes for these apparent biases will be identified and the need for this supplementary modeling will diminish. (5) We use a response-modeling approach for our predictions that allows for general types of prediction and for assessment of prediction uncertainty. This approach is demonstrated through a case study supporting the assessment of a weapons response when subjected to a hydrocarbon fuel fire. The foam decomposition model provides an important element of the response of a weapon system in this abnormal thermal environment. Rigid foam is used to encapsulate critical components in the weapon system providing the needed mechanical support as well as thermal isolation. Because the foam begins to decompose at temperatures above 250 C, modeling the decomposition is critical to assessing a weapons response. In the validation analysis it is indicated that the model tends to ''exaggerate'' the effect of temperature changes when compared to the experimental results. The data, however, are too few and to restricted in terms of experimental design to make confident statements regarding modeling problems. For illustration, we assume these indications are correct and compensate for this apparent bias by constructing a model supplement term for use in the model-based predictions. Several hypothetical prediction problems are created and addressed. Hypothetical problems are used because no guidance was provided concern

  9. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  10. Proceedings of the Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference, San Francisco, CA, 2001 Combining Genetic Algorithms and Case-Based Reasoning for Genetic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kansas, University of

    One important research issue in building a case-based reasoning system is the collection of cases as the system runs. We propose to use genetic algorithms to gen- erate useful cases since there is not any to collecting cases: (1) adaptation from existing databases, (2) outcome of an automated or interactive problem

  11. The Impact of Non-Gaussianity upon Cosmological Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Repp, Andrew; Carron, Julien; Wolk, Melody

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The primary science driver for 3D galaxy surveys is their potential to constrain cosmological parameters. Forecasts of these surveys' effectiveness typically assume Gaussian statistics for the underlying matter density, despite the fact that the actual distribution is decidedly non-Gaussian. To quantify the effect of this assumption, we employ an analytic expression for the power spectrum covariance matrix to calculate the Fisher information for BAO-type model surveys. We find that for typical number densities, at $k_\\mathrm{max} = 0.5 h$ Mpc$^{-1}$, Gaussian assumptions significantly overestimate the information on all parameters considered, in some cases by up to an order of magnitude. However, after marginalizing over a six-parameter set, the form of the covariance matrix (dictated by $N$-body simulations) causes the majority of the effect to shift to the "amplitude-like" parameters, leaving the others virtually unaffected. We find that Gaussian assumptions at such wavenumbers can underestimate the dark en...

  12. Model-based performance monitoring: Review of diagnostic methods and chiller case study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haves, Phil; Khalsa, Sat Kartar

    2000-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The paper commences by reviewing the variety of technical approaches to the problem of detecting and diagnosing faulty operation in order to improve the actual performance of buildings. The review covers manual and automated methods, active testing and passive monitoring, the different classes of models used in fault detection, and methods of diagnosis. The process of model-based fault detection is then illustrated by describing the use of relatively simple empirical models of chiller energy performance to monitor equipment degradation and control problems. The CoolTools(trademark) chiller model identification package is used to fit the DOE-2 chiller model to on-site measurements from a building instrumented with high quality sensors. The need for simple algorithms to reject transient data, detect power surges and identify control problems is discussed, as is the use of energy balance checks to detect sensor problems. The accuracy with which the chiller model can be expected! to predict performance is assessed from the goodness of fit obtained and the implications for fault detection sensitivity and sensor accuracy requirements are discussed. A case study is described in which the model was applied retroactively to high-quality data collected in a San Francisco office building as part of a related project (Piette et al. 1999).

  13. Habitat-Lite: A GSC case study based on free text terms for environmental metadata

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kyrpides, Nikos; Hirschman, Lynette; Clark, Cheryl; Cohen, K. Bretonnel; Mardis, Scott; Luciano, Joanne; Kottmann, Renzo; Cole, James; Markowitz, Victor; Kyrpides, Nikos; Field, Dawn

    2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    There is an urgent need to capture metadata on the rapidly growing number of genomic, metagenomic and related sequences, such as 16S ribosomal genes. This need is a major focus within the Genomic Standards Consortium (GSC), and Habitat is a key metadata descriptor in the proposed 'Minimum Information about a Genome Sequence' (MIGS) specification. The goal of the work described here is to provide a light-weight, easy-to-use (small) set of terms ('Habitat-Lite') that captures high-level information about habitat while preserving a mapping to the recently launched Environment Ontology (EnvO). Our motivation for building Habitat-Lite is to meet the needs of multiple users, such as annotators curating these data, database providers hosting the data, and biologists and bioinformaticians alike who need to search and employ such data in comparative analyses. Here, we report a case study based on semi-automated identification of terms from GenBank and GOLD. We estimate that the terms in the initial version of Habitat-Lite would provide useful labels for over 60% of the kinds of information found in the GenBank isolation-source field, and around 85% of the terms in the GOLD habitat field. We present a revised version of Habitat-Lite and invite the community's feedback on its further development in order to provide a minimum list of terms to capture high-level habitat information and to provide classification bins needed for future studies.

  14. Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.

    1983-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)

  15. Is it Worth it? A Comparative Analysis of Cost-Benefit Projections for State Renewables Portfolio Standards

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Cliff; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    such as the natural gas price forecast and the presumedrely on dated natural gas price forecasts projecting pricespossible, base-case natural gas price forecasts should be

  16. Model-Based Control of Nonlinear Systems Subject to Sensor Data Losses: A Chemical Process Case Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sontag, Eduardo

    Model-Based Control of Nonlinear Systems Subject to Sensor Data Losses: A Chemical Process Case, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1592, USA, davidmps@ucla.edu, pdc@seas.ucla.edu. Controller Process x Data feedback control of nonlinear uncertain systems subject to sensor data losses. We compare three different

  17. Imaging-based thermal modelling and reverse engineering of as-built automotive components: A case study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koschan, Andreas

    Imaging-based thermal modelling and reverse engineering of as-built automotive components: A case. Further, we show results of immersing the reverse- engineered mesh in the thermal simulation environment modeling of vehicle components. Keywords: reverse engineering; thermal imaging; thermal simulation

  18. A Case Study on the Model-Based Design and Integration of Automotive Cyber-Physical Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koutsoukos, Xenofon D.

    A Case Study on the Model-Based Design and Integration of Automotive Cyber-Physical Systems Di--Cyber-physical systems (CPS), such as automotive systems, are very difficult to design due to the tight interactions of an integrated automotive control system. The system is composed of two independently designed controllers

  19. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  20. LANL JOWOG 31 2012 Forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vidlak, Anton J. II [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    Joint Working Group (JOWOG) 31, Nuclear Weapons Engineering, has a particularly broad scope of activities within its charter which emphasizes systems engineering. JOWOG 31 brings together experts from AWE and the national laboratories to address engineering issues associated with warhead design and certification. Some of the key areas of interaction, as addressed by the HOCWOGs are: (1) Engineering Analysis, (2) Hydrodynamic Testing, (3) Environmental Testing, and (4) Model Based Integrated Toolkit (MBIT). Gas Transfer Systems and Condition Monitoring interaction has been moved back to JOWOG 31. The regularly scheduled JOWOG 31 activities are the General Sessions, Executive Sessions, Focused Exchanges and HOCWOGs. General Sessions are scheduled every 12-18 months and are supported by the four design laboratories (AWE, LANL, LLNL, and SNL). Beneficial in educating the next generation of weapons engineers and establishing contacts between AWE and the US laboratory personnel. General Sessions are based on a blend of presentations and workshops centered on various themed subjects directly related to Stockpile Stewardship. HOCWOG meetings are more narrowly focused than the General Sessions. They feature presentations by experts in the field with a greater emphasis on round table discussions. Typically about 20 people attend. Focused exchanges are generally the result of interactions within JOWOG general sessions or HOCWOG meetings. They generally span a very specific topic of current interest within the US and UK.

  1. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    it can generate as much or more energy that it needs ? Building activities need N kWhrs per day (solar panels, heating, etc) ? Harvested from solar panels & passive solar. Amount depends on weather ? NWP models forecast DSWRF @ surface (MJ/m2...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/SolarScribe/SolarScribe/ CMC NWP datasets for Day 2 Forecasts ? Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) ? RDPS raw model data ? 10 km resolution, North America, 000-054 forecasts ? Data at: http...

  2. Forecasting model of the PEPCO service area economy. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Volume III describes and documents the regional economic model of the PEPCO service area which was relied upon to develop many of the assumptions of future values of economic and demographic variables used in the forecast. The PEPCO area model is mathematically linked to the Wharton long-term forecast of the U.S. Volume III contains a technical discussion of the structure of the regional model and presents the regional economic forecast.

  3. Saltstone Disposal Facility Closure Cap Configuration and Degradation Base Case: Institutional Control to Pine Forest Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phifer, M.A.

    2004-03-19T23:59:59.000Z

    The Performance Assessment (PA) for the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) is currently under revision. As part of the PA revision and as documented herein, the closure cap configuration has been reevaluated and closure cap degradation mechanisms and their impact upon infiltration through the closure cap have been evaluated for the institutional control to pine forest, land use scenario. This land use scenario is considered the base case land use scenario. This scenario assumes a 100-year institutional control period following final SDF closure during which the closure cap is maintained. At the end of institutional control, it is assumed that a pine forest succeeds the cap's original bamboo cover. Infiltration through the upper hydraulic barrier layer of the closure cap as determined by this evaluation will be utilized as the infiltration input to subsequent PORFLOW vadose zone contaminant transport modeling, which will also be performed as part of the PA revision. The impacts of pine forest succession, erosion, and colloidal clay migration as degradation mechanisms on the hydraulic properties of the closure cap layers over time have been estimated and the resulting infiltration through the closure cap has been evaluated. The primary changes caused by the degradation mechanisms that result in increased infiltration are the formation of holes in the upper GCL by pine forest succession and the reduction in the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the drainage layers due to colloidal clay migration into the layers. Erosion can also result in significant increases in infiltration if it causes the removal of soil layers, which provide water storage for the promotion of evapotranspiration. For this scenario, infiltration through the upper GCL was estimated at approximately 0.29 inches/year under initial intact conditions, it increased to approximately 11.6 inches/year at year 1000 in nearly a linear fashion, and it approached an asymptote of around 14.1 inches/year at year 1800 and thereafter. At year 1800, it was estimated that holes covered approximately 0.3 percent of the GCL due to root penetration, and that this resulted in an infiltration near that of typical background infiltration (i.e. as though the GCL were not there at all). This demonstrated that a very small area of holes essentially controlled the hydraulic performance of the GCL.

  4. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications Computational Advances in Applied...

  5. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  6. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  7. Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment, provides an authoritative voice on the...

  8. analytical energy forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    COMMISSION Tom Gorin Lynn Marshall Principal Author Tom Gorin Project 11 Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Computer Technologies and...

  9. Econometric model and futures markets commodity price forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Just, Richard E.; Rausser, Gordon C.

    1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Versus CCll1rnercial Econometric M:ldels." Uni- versity ofWorking Paper No. 72 ECONOMETRIC ! 'econometric forecasts with the futures

  10. Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gordon, Geoffrey J.

    Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery , Michael Trick Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. nihat

  11. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  12. Air pollution forecasting by coupled atmosphere-fire model WRF and SFIRE with WRF-Chem

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kochanski, Adam K; Mandel, Jan; Clements, Craig B

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Atmospheric pollution regulations have emerged as a dominant obstacle to prescribed burns. Thus, forecasting the pollution caused by wildland fires has acquired high importance. WRF and SFIRE model wildland fire spread in a two-way interaction with the atmosphere. The surface heat flux from the fire causes strong updrafts, which in turn change the winds and affect the fire spread. Fire emissions, estimated from the burning organic matter, are inserted in every time step into WRF-Chem tracers at the lowest atmospheric layer. The buoyancy caused by the fire then naturally simulates plume dynamics, and the chemical transport in WRF-Chem provides a forecast of the pollution spread. We discuss the choice of wood burning models and compatible chemical transport models in WRF-Chem, and demonstrate the results on case studies.

  13. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  14. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using theof two methods to forecast natural gas prices is performed:accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the

  15. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast With natural gas prices significantlyto the EIAs natural gas price forecasts in AEO 2004 and AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely once

  16. Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wickham, Richard Robert

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is arguably the most critical component of airline management. Essentially, airlines forecast demand to plan the supply of services to respond to that demand. Forecasts of short-term demand facilitate tactical ...

  17. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    revisions to the EIAs natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  18. Myths and Barriers to the Introduction of Safety Cases in Space-Based Systems Chris W. Johnson (1), Derek A. Robins (2)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Chris

    possible space based applications revealed that many engineers view safety argumentation as a meansMyths and Barriers to the Introduction of Safety Cases in Space-Based Systems Chris W. Johnson (1) SAIC, Houston, Texas, USA. Abstract Safety cases provide high-level support for the development

  19. Renewable Forecast Min-Max2020.xls

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's PossibleRadiation Protection Technical s o Freiberge s 3 c/)RenewableRenewable EnergyForecast of

  20. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC) Environmental Assessments (EA)Budget(DANCE) Target 1Annual Waste Forecast and Funding

  1. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to predictdailysolarradiation. AgricultureandForestandChuo,S. 2008. SolarradiationforecastingusingShort?termforecastingofsolarradiation: Astatistical

  2. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime meteorological data from sites upwind of wind farms can be efficiently used to improve short-term forecasts acknowledges the support of PPM Energy, Inc. The data used in this work were obtained from Oregon State

  3. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  4. RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Manry, Michael

    a mixture of hydroelectric and non- hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend, and to economically allocate the load between various non-hydroelectric plants. Neural networks provide an attractive technology for inflow forecasting, because of (1) their success in power load forecasting 1- 6 , and (2

  5. Introducing the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster Aston Chipanshi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miami, University of

    for crop yield forecasting and risk analysis. Using the Census Agriculture Region (CAR) as the unit Climate Decision Support and Adaptation, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1011, Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK S7V 1B7, Canada The Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF) is a statistical modelling tool

  6. Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power................................................ 14 2.2.3 Critical Processes for Wind Forecast

  7. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST, and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption STAFFFINALREPORT NOVEMBER 2007 CEC-200-2007-015-SF2 Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor #12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY

  8. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Manager Kae Lewis Acting Manager Demand Analysis Office Valerie T. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency Demand Forecast report is the product of the efforts of many current and former California Energy

  9. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co for the modeled wind- CAES system would not cover annualized capital costs. We also estimate market prices-ahead market is roughly $100, with large variability due to electric power prices. Wind power forecast errors

  10. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast to grow from 20,080 average megawatts in 2000 to 25 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  11. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    - namic reserve quantification [8], for the optimal oper- ation of combined wind-hydro power plants [5, 1Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power

  12. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    -- Photovoltaic systems, Batteries, Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION This paper presents first results of a study Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  13. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    of the forecasting algorithm for the different conditions. 1. INTRODUCTION According to the U.S. Department of Energy could take advantage of times when electricity cost is lower, to chill a cold water storage tankForecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines

  14. LHCb Computing Resources: 2011 re-assessment, 2012 request and 2013 forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Graciani, R

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This note covers the following aspects: re-assessment of computing resource usage estimates for 2011 data taking period, request of computing resource needs for 2012 data taking period and a first forecast of the 2013 needs, when no data taking is foreseen. Estimates are based on 2010 experienced and last updates from LHC schedule, as well as on a new implementation of the computing model simulation tool. Differences in the model and deviations in the estimates from previous presented results are stressed.

  15. LHCb Computing Resources: 2012 re-assessment, 2013 request and 2014 forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Graciani Diaz, Ricardo

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This note covers the following aspects: re-assessment of computing resource usage estimates for 2012 data-taking period, request of computing resource needs for 2013, and a first forecast of the 2014 needs, when restart of data-taking is foreseen. Estimates are based on 2011 experience, as well as on the results of a simulation of the computing model described in the document. Differences in the model and deviations in the estimates from previous presented results are stressed.

  16. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  17. Contribution of Case Based Reasoning (CBR) in the Exploitation of Return of Experience. Application to Accident Scenarii in Railroad Transport

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maalel, Ahmed

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The study is from a base of accident scenarii in rail transport (feedback) in order to develop a tool to share build and sustain knowledge and safety and secondly to exploit the knowledge stored to prevent the reproduction of accidents / incidents. This tool should ultimately lead to the proposal of prevention and protection measures to minimize the risk level of a new transport system and thus to improve safety. The approach to achieving this goal largely depends on the use of artificial intelligence techniques and rarely the use of a method of automatic learning in order to develop a feasibility model of a software tool based on case based reasoning (CBR) to exploit stored knowledge in order to create know-how that can help stimulate domain experts in the task of analysis, evaluation and certification of a new system.

  18. NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt Global Insight, paid for by the West Virginia Department of Revenue. 2013 WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWest Virginia Economic Outlook 2013 is published by: Bureau of Business & Economic Research West

  19. Collective action for community-based hazard mitigation: a case study of Tulsa project impact

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Hee Min

    2005-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    During the past two decades, community-based hazard mitigation (CBHM) has been newly proposed and implemented as an alternative conceptual model for emergency management to deal with disasters comprehensively in order to ...

  20. Rights-based evaluation of government responses to a given 'natural' disaster : Katrina as case study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haeffner, Melissa (Melissa Ann)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Disaster impacts human mobility and a rights-based approach to disaster response is needed to protect the human rights of those who seek migration as an adaptation strategy. This paper deals with returning to a place after ...

  1. Case-study of a coal gasification-based energy supply system for China

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Engineering, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China ``Syngas city'' (SC) is a concept for a coal. Introduction ``Syngas city'' (SC) is a concept for coal gasification- based energy supply systems that deploy

  2. Space-time forecasting and evaluation of wind speed with statistical tests for comparing accuracy of spatial predictions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hering, Amanda S.

    2010-10-12T23:59:59.000Z

    High-quality short-term forecasts of wind speed are vital to making wind power a more reliable energy source. Gneiting et al. (2006) have introduced a model for the average wind speed two hours ahead based on both spatial and temporal information...

  3. Development of a Rubber-Based Product Using a Mixture Experiment: A Challenging Case Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kaya, Yahya; Piepel, Gregory F.; Caniyilmaz, Erdal

    2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Many products used in daily life are made by blending two or more components. The properties of such products typically depend on the relative proportions of the components. Experimental design, modeling, and data analysis methods for mixture experiments provide for efficiently determining the component proportions that will yield a product with desired properties. This article presents a case study of the work performed to develop a new rubber formulation for an o-ring (a circular gasket) with requirements specified on 10 product properties. Each step of the study is discussed, including: 1) identifying the objective of the study and requirements for properties of the o-ring, 2) selecting the components to vary and specifying the component constraints, 3) constructing a mixture experiment design, 4) measuring the responses and assessing the data, 5) developing property-composition models, 6) selecting the new product formulation, and 7) confirming the selected formulation in manufacturing. The case study includes some challenging and new aspects, which are discussed in the article.

  4. Flexibility in Design, Outcomes and Analysis in Evidence- Based Drug Prevention Research: The Case of the Midwestern Prevention Project

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gorman, Dennis M.

    2013-11-22T23:59:59.000Z

    , column 2]. h Dwyer et al. [20] used a number of different models in their analysis and concluded that these showed no evidence of an effect on alcohol use [20, p. 781]. Hence ? appears in the table. i Data for the 1-year follow-up are from Pentz et...Citation: Gorman DM. Flexibility in Design, Outcomes and Analysis in Evidence-Based Drug Prevention Research: The Case of the Midwestern Prevention Project. J Addiction Prevention. 2013;1(3): 8. J Addiction Prevention November 2013 Vol.:1, Issue...

  5. Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks and Commodity Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kulkarni, Siddhivinayak

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, then add pre-processed futures prices for 1, 2, 3,and four months to maturity, one by one and also altogether. The results on the benchmark suggest that a dynamic model of 13 lags is the optimal to forecast spot price direction for the short-term. Further, the forecast accuracy of the direction of the market was 78%, 66%, and 53% for one, two, and three days in future conclusively. For all the experiments, that include futures data as an input, the results show that on the short-term, futures prices do hold new information on the spot price direction. The results obtained will generate comprehensive understanding of the cr...

  6. A Framework for Constraint-based Collaborative Web Service Applications and a Travel Application Case Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Madiraju, Praveen

    Interface (API) employing which developers can create domain-specific collaborative applications based on Web services without much effort. The API not only provides methods to integrate independent Web interdependencies among the rest of the entities. In the current prototype of SyDLink module, a coordination link

  7. Computers & Geosciences 29 (2003) 351359 A case against Kd-based transport models: natural attenuation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Polly, David

    )-based transport model. The study site is a contaminated groundwater aquifer underneath a uranium mill tailings groundwater for 1600 years. The coupled model shows that groundwater­sediment interactions result in multiple. Keywords: Geochemical modeling; Contaminant; Transport; Coupled processes 1. Introduction Accurate

  8. Analysis of User Trajectories Based on Data Distribution and State Transition: a Case Study with a Massively Multiplayer Online Game Angel Love Online

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thawonmas, Ruck

    Analysis of User Trajectories Based on Data Distribution and State Transition: a Case Study in two steps: the first step based on data distribution and the second step based on state transition study where our approach is applied to real trajectory data obtained from Angel Love Online, a massively

  9. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  10. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  11. November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shyy, Wei

    November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade in Services and the Current Account, 2000 of Forecast*** We forecast that the services trade surplus, which declined from 1997 to 1998 and edged upward. That is, from a level of $80.6 billion in 1999, we forecast that the services trade surplus will be $80

  12. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  13. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  14. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  15. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  16. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  17. ASSESSING THE QUALITY AND ECONOMIC VALUE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katz, Richard

    INFORMATION SYSTEM Forecast -- Conditional probability distribution for event Z = z indicates forecast tornado #12;(1.2) FRAMEWORK Joint Distribution of Observations & Forecasts Observed Weather = Forecast probability p (e.g., induced by Z) Reliability Diagram Observed weather: = 1 (Adverse weather occurs) = 0

  18. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    GEPS 21 members ? Provides probabilistic forecasts ? Can give useful outlooks for longer term weather forecasts ? Scribe matrix from GDPS ? includes UMOS post processed model data ? Variables like Temperature, humidity post processed by UMOS ? See...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products/ ? Link to experimental 3-day outlook of REPS quilts ? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products.reps Users can also make their own products from ensemble forecast data? Sample ascii matrix of 2m temperature could be fed...

  19. Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Allanach, B C; Cranmer, Kyle; Lester, Christopher G; Weber, Arne M

    2007-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    ar X iv :0 70 5. 04 87 v3 [ he p- ph ] 5 J ul 20 07 Preprint typeset in JHEP style - HYPER VERSION DAMTP-2007-18 Cavendish-HEP-2007-03 MPP-2007-36 Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts Benjamin C Allanach1, Kyle Cranmer2... s likely discoveries. There are big differences between nature of the questions answered by a forecast, and the ques- tions that will be answered by the experiments themselves when they have acquired compelling data. A weather forecast predicting severe...

  20. Collective action for community-based hazard mitigation: a case study of Tulsa project impact

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Hee Min

    2005-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    intergovernmental governance and reduce disaster losses (Godschalk, Beatley, Berke, Brower, and Kaiser, 1999; Mileti, 1999). Nevertheless, natural disaster losses in the United States have dramatically increased rather than decreased during the past two decades..., 1991). New alternative conceptual models for community-based hazard mitigation (CBHM) have recently been developed and implemented: for example, the sustainable community (Aguirre, 2002; Beatley, 1998; Berke, Kartez, and Wenger, 1993; Mileti...

  1. Building an internet-based workflow system - the case of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories` Zephyr project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, C. W., LLNL

    1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories` Zephyr System provides a showcase for the ways in which emerging technologies can help streamline procurement processes and improve the coordination between participants in engineering projects by allowing collaboration in ways that have not been possible before. The project also shows the success of a highly pragmatic approach that was initiated by the end user community, and that intentionally covered standard situations, rather than aiming at also automating the exceptions. By helping push purchasing responsibilities down to the end user, thereby greatly reducing the involvement of the purchasing department in operational activities, it was possible to streamline the process significantly resulting in time savings of up to 90%, major cost reductions, and improved quality. Left with less day-to- day purchasing operations, the purchasing department has more time for strategic tasks such as selecting and pre-qualifying new suppliers, negotiating blanket orders, or implementing new procurement systems. The case shows once more that the use of information technologies can result in major benefits when aligned with organizational adjustments.

  2. A Sustainable approach to large ICT Science based infrastructures; the case for Radio Astronomy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barbosa, Domingos; Boonstra, Albert-Jan; Aguiar, Rui; van Ardenne, Arnold; de Santander-Vela, Juande; Verdes-Montenegro, Lourdes

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Large sensor-based infrastructures for radio astronomy will be among the most intensive data-driven projects in the world, facing very high power demands. The geographically wide distribution of these infrastructures and their associated processing High Performance Computing (HPC) facilities require Green Information and Communications Technologies (ICT). A combination is needed of low power computing, efficient data storage, local data services, Smart Grid power management, and inclusion of Renewable Energies. Here we outline the major characteristics and innovation approaches to address power efficiency and long-term power sustainability for radio astronomy projects, focusing on Green ICT for science.

  3. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  4. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  5. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  6. OCTOBER-NOVEMBER FORECAST FOR 2014 CARIBBEAN BASIN HURRICANE ACTIVITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    and hurricanes, but instead predicts both hurricane days and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Typically, while) tropical cyclone (TC) activity. We have decided to issue this forecast, because Klotzbach (2011) has

  7. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  8. A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

  9. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Agency: 1982-2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington,Agency: 2004, Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation,Agency: 2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C.

  10. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Energy2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Granger,Paper ???? The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric

  11. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  12. Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levinson, David M.

    Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1 David Levinson 2 February, the assumed networks to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went

  13. africa conditional forecasts: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  14. accident risk forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  15. Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Xiaorong

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GARCH...

  16. Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romo, Juan

    Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap Lorenzo Pascual, Juan generated by GARCH processes. The main advantage over other bootstrap methods previously proposed for GARCH by having conditional heteroscedasticity. Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH

  17. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  18. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  19. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  20. An econometric analysis and forecasting of Seoul office market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Kyungmin

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines and forecasts the Seoul office market, which is going to face a big supply in the next few years. After reviewing several previous studies on the Dynamic model and the Seoul Office market, this thesis ...

  1. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy ofSolar Forecasting Funding Opportunity,DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  2. Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan

    Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems? M. Hashem Pesaran Cambridge University and USC Andreas Pick De Nederlandsche Bank and Cambridge University, CIMF Allan Timmermann UC San Diego and CREATES January 26, 2009...

  3. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  4. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  5. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties associated with the best...

  6. Prediction of wind speed profiles for short-term forecasting in the offshore environment R.J. Barthelmie and G. Giebel

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in planning of maintenance visits to offshore wind farms. In most cases the basis for the predictionPrediction of wind speed profiles for short-term forecasting in the offshore environment R wind farms. The main effects considered here are: wind speed gradients in the coastal zone, vertical

  7. Energy efficiency and the economists: The case for a policy based on economic principles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anderson, D. [The World Bank, Washington, DC (United States)

    1995-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    People interested in energy policy, whether in business, finance, government, or the environmental movement, should welcome and support an approach based on economic principles for three reasons. By solving the financing problem and encouraging innovation and cost-efficiency, the economic-efficiency approach will enable all countries to meet energy demands. By giving proper weight to the development and use of low-polluting technologies this approach will enable reduction of local and, over the long-term global pollution as energy demands grow. And in developing countries especially, an economic approach will enable the industry to play its part in raising living standards for the population at large. Given good policies, there is no reason at all why developing countries, like the industrial countries before them, should not enjoy the benefits of much higher levels of energy consumption than they do today.

  8. Forecasting of Indian Rupee (INR) / US Dollar (USD) Currency Exchange Rate Using Artificial Neural Network

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perwej, Yusuf; 10.5121/ijcsea.2012.2204

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A large part of the workforce, and growing every day, is originally from India. India one of the second largest populations in the world, they have a lot to offer in terms of jobs. The sheer number of IT workers makes them a formidable travelling force as well, easily picking up employment in English speaking countries. The beginning of the economic crises since 2008 September, many Indians have return homeland, and this has had a substantial impression on the Indian Rupee (INR) as liken to the US Dollar (USD). We are using numerational knowledge based techniques for forecasting has been proved highly successful in present time. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of several important neural network factors on model fitting and forecasting the behaviours. In this paper, Artificial Neural Network has successfully been used for exchange rate forecasting. This paper examines the effects of the number of inputs and hidden nodes and the size of the training sample on the in-sample and out-of-sample...

  9. Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awwad, Haitham Munir

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas AkM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May... 1991 Major Subject: Civil Engineering STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Approved as to style and content by: uan B. Valdes (Chair of Committee) alph A. Wurbs (Member) Marshall J. Mc...

  10. A model for short term electric load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tigue, John Robert

    1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

  11. Recurrent Shocks, Poverty Traps and the Degradation of the Social Capital Base of Pastoralism: A Case Study from Southern Ethiopia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berhanu, Wassie

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A Case Study from Southern Ethiopia. Wassie Berhanu AddisCase Study from Southern Ethiopia. CEGA Working Paper SeriesA Case Study from Southern Ethiopia. Journal of Development

  12. Sweets, sweetened beverages, and risk of pancreatic cancer in a large population-based casecontrol study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chan, June M.; Wang, Furong; Holly, Elizabeth A.

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    serving = 1 can, Case % glass, bottle, or cup) n Low calorie= 1 can, Case % glass, bottle, or cup) n All sweetened

  13. Rational Mutagenesis to Support Structure-based Drug Design: MAPKAP Kinase 2 as a Case Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    M Argiriadi; S Sousa; D Banach; D Marcotte; T Xiang; M Tomlinson; M Demers; C Harris; S Kwak; et al.

    2011-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Structure-based drug design (SBDD) can provide valuable guidance to drug discovery programs. Robust construct design and expression, protein purification and characterization, protein crystallization, and high-resolution diffraction are all needed for rapid, iterative inhibitor design. We describe here robust methods to support SBDD on an oral anti-cytokine drug target, human MAPKAP kinase 2 (MK2). Our goal was to obtain useful diffraction data with a large number of chemically diverse lead compounds. Although MK2 structures and structural methods have been reported previously, reproducibility was low and improved methods were needed. Our construct design strategy had four tactics: N- and C-terminal variations; entropy-reducing surface mutations; activation loop deletions; and pseudoactivation mutations. Generic, high-throughput methods for cloning and expression were coupled with automated liquid dispensing for the rapid testing of crystallization conditions with minimal sample requirements. Initial results led to development of a novel, customized robotic crystallization screen that yielded MK2/inhibitor complex crystals under many conditions in seven crystal forms. In all, 44 MK2 constructs were generated, {approx}500 crystals were tested for diffraction, and {approx}30 structures were determined, delivering high-impact structural data to support our MK2 drug design effort. Key lessons included setting reasonable criteria for construct performance and prioritization, a willingness to design and use customized crystallization screens, and, crucially, initiation of high-throughput construct exploration very early in the drug discovery process.

  14. Lipid-Based Nanodiscs as Models for Studying Mesoscale Coalescence A Transport Limited Case

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hu, Andrew [University of Connecticut, Storrs; Fan, Tai-Hsi [University of Connecticut, Storrs; Katsaras, John [ORNL; Xia, Yan [University of Connecticut, Storrs; Li, Ming [University of Connecticut, Storrs; Nieh, Mu-Ping [University of Connecticut, Storrs

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Lipid-based nanodiscs (bicelles) are able to form in mixtures of long- and short-chain lipids. Initially, they are of uniform size but grow upon dilution. Previously, nanodisc growth kinetics have been studied using time-resolved small angle neutron scattering (SANS), a technique which is not well suited for probing their change in size immediately after dilution. To address this, we have used dynamic light scattering (DLS), a technique which permits the collection of useful data in a short span of time after dilution of the system. The DLS data indicate that the negatively charged lipids in nanodiscs play a significant role in disc stability and growth. Specifically, the charged lipids are most likely drawn out from the nanodiscs into solution, thereby reducing interparticle repulsion and enabling the discs to grow. We describe a population balance model, which takes into account Coulombic interactions and adequately predicts the initial growth of nanodiscs with a single parameter i.e., surface potential. The results presented here strongly support the notion that the disc coalescence rate strongly depends on nanoparticle charge density. The present system containing low-polydispersity lipid nanodiscs serves as a good model for understanding how charged discoidal micelles coalesce.

  15. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  16. Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ben C Allanach; Kyle Cranmer; Christopher G Lester; Arne M Weber

    2007-07-05T23:59:59.000Z

    Previous LHC forecasts for the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), based on current astrophysical and laboratory measurements, have used priors that are flat in the parameter tan beta, while being constrained to postdict the central experimental value of MZ. We construct a different, new and more natural prior with a measure in mu and B (the more fundamental MSSM parameters from which tan beta and MZ are actually derived). We find that as a consequence this choice leads to a well defined fine-tuning measure in the parameter space. We investigate the effect of such on global CMSSM fits to indirect constraints, providing posterior probability distributions for Large Hadron Collider (LHC) sparticle production cross sections. The change in priors has a significant effect, strongly suppressing the pseudoscalar Higgs boson dark matter annihilation region, and diminishing the probable values of sparticle masses. We also show how to interpret fit information from a Markov Chain Monte Carlo in a frequentist fashion; namely by using the profile likelihood. Bayesian and frequentist interpretations of CMSSM fits are compared and contrasted.

  17. Saltstone Disposal Facility Mechanically Stabilized Earth Vault Closure Cap Degradation Base Case: Institutional Control To Pine Forest Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phifer, MA

    2004-03-19T23:59:59.000Z

    As part of the current Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) Performance Assessment (PA) revision, the closure cap configuration was reevaluated and closure cap degradation mechanisms and their impact upon infiltration through the closure cap was evaluated for the existing SDF concrete vaults (i.e. vaults 1 and 4) for the base case land use scenario (i.e. institutional control to pine forest scenario) and documented in Phifer and Nelson (2003). The closure cap configuration was modified from a compacted kaolin barrier layer concept to a geosynthetic clay layer (GCL) barrier layer concept. The degradation mechanisms developed included pine forest succession, erosion, and colloidal clay migration. These degradation mechanisms resulted in changes in the hydraulic properties of the closure cap layers and resulting increases in infiltration through the closure cap over time.

  18. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  19. Adaptive Forecast-Based Monitoring for Dynamic Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nembhard, Harriet Black

    . INTRODUCTION Statistical process control (SPC) techniques, including stan- dard Shewhart control charts, exponentially weighted mov- ing average (EWMA), and cumulative sum (CUSUM) con- trol charts, are widely used to monitor the output of industrial processes. Control chart procedures are designed to operate

  20. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Climate Change Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (M. Tyree, staff scientist, personal communication).

  1. Genetic Programming with Wavelet-Based Indicators for Financial Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Thomas

    in the fields of applied mathematics and electrical en- gineering have developed the useful wavelet analysis properties of for- eign exchange volatility (Genay et al., 2001), systematic risk in a capital asset pric

  2. A watershed-based method for environmental vulnerability assessment with a case study of the Mid-Atlantic region

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tran, Liem T., E-mail: ltran1@utk.edu [Department of Geography, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); O& #x27; Neill, Robert V. [OTIE and Associates, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Smith, Elizabeth R. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    2012-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The paper presents a method for environmental vulnerability assessment with a case study of the Mid-Atlantic region. The method is based on the concept of 'self-/peer-appraisal' of a watershed in term of vulnerability. The self-/peer-appraisal process is facilitated by two separate linear optimization programs. The analysis provided insights on the environmental conditions, in general, and the relative vulnerability pattern, in particular, of the Mid-Atlantic region. The suggested method offers a simple but effective and objective way to perform a regional environmental vulnerability assessment. Consequently the method can be used in various steps in environmental assessment and planning. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a method for regional environmental vulnerability assessment. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It is based on the self-/peer-appraisal concept in term of vulnerability. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The analysis is facilitated by two separate linear optimization programs. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method provides insights on the regional relative vulnerability pattern.

  3. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  4. USE OF AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL TO FORECAST DISSOLUTION EFFECTIVENESS, SAFETY IMPACTS, AND DOWNSTREAM PROCESSABILITY FROM OXALIC ACID AIDED SLUDGE REMOVAL IN SAVANNAH RIVER SITE HIGH LEVEL WASTE TANKS 1-15

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KETUSKY, EDWARD

    2005-10-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis details a graduate research effort written to fulfill the Magister of Technologiae in Chemical Engineering requirements at the University of South Africa. The research evaluates the ability of equilibrium based software to forecast dissolution, evaluate safety impacts, and determine downstream processability changes associated with using oxalic acid solutions to dissolve sludge heels in Savannah River Site High Level Waste (HLW) Tanks 1-15. First, a dissolution model is constructed and validated. Coupled with a model, a material balance determines the fate of hypothetical worst-case sludge in the treatment and neutralization tanks during each chemical adjustment. Although sludge is dissolved, after neutralization more is created within HLW. An energy balance determines overpressurization and overheating to be unlikely. Corrosion induced hydrogen may overwhelm the purge ventilation. Limiting the heel volume treated/acid added and processing the solids through vitrification is preferred and should not significantly increase the number of glass canisters.

  5. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system breaking points, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

  6. Short-term planning and forecasting for petroleum. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elkins, R.D.

    1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Defense Fuel Supply Center (DFSC) has, in recent past, been unable to adequately forecast for short-term petroleum requirements. This has resulted in inaccurate replenishment quantities and required short-notice corrections, which interrupted planned resupply methods. The relationship between the annual CINCLANTFLT DFM budget and sales from the the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point (DFSP) is developed and the past sales data from the Norfolk DFSP is used to construct seasonality indices. Finally, the budget/sales relationship is combined with the seasonality indices to provide a new forecasting model. The model is then compared with the current one for FY-88 monthly forecasts. The comparison suggests that the new model can provide accurate, timely requirements data and improve resupply of the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point.

  7. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price.................................................................................................................................. 27 INTRODUCTION The Council prepares and periodically updates a 20-year forecast of wholesale to forecast wholesale power prices. AURORAxmp® provides the ability to inco

  8. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    andvalidation. SolarEnergy. 73:5,307? Perez,R. ,forecastdatabase. SolarEnergy. 81:6,809?812. forecastsintheUS. SolarEnergy. 84:12,2161?2172.

  9. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean...

  10. Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Statton, James Cody

    2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

    . This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%....

  11. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range. The price of crude oil was $25 a barrel in January of 2000. In July 2008 it averaged $127, even approachingSixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction

  12. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  13. Solar Variability and Forecasting Jan Kleissl, Chi Chow, Matt Lave, Patrick Mathiesen,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Homes, Christopher C.

    Forecasting Benefits Use of state-of-art wind and solar forecasts reduces WECC operating costs by up to 14/MWh of wind and solar generation). WECC operating costs could be reduced by an additional $500 million

  14. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  15. Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater

  16. Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newton, Nathan J.

    2013-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

    This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how...

  17. Forecasting the demand for electric vehicles: accounting for attitudes and perceptions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bierlaire, Michel

    prediction, transportation, attitudes and perceptions, hybrid choice models, fractional factorial design: survey design, model estimation and forecasting. We develop a stated preferences (SP) survey with issues related to the application of models designed to forecast demand for new alternatives, most

  18. Price forecasting for U.S. cattle feeders: which technique to apply?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hicks, Geoff Cody

    1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    both feeder cattle costs and corn costs, and maximizing fed cattle prices. This research strives to evaluate the accuracy of six distinct price forecasting techniques over an eleven year period. The forecast techniques selected for this analysisare...

  19. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  20. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Photovoltaic MSW Oil Oil Diesel Base Diesel Peak Gas Turbineelectricity Oil :required ion, however, will peak in 1990

  1. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  2. Update On The Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast & Modeling Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ,877 Replacement #12;CO2 Emission Modeling The AURORAxmp electric market model calculates CO2 emission) Assumptions CO2 emission modeling Base Case Results Scenario/Sensitivities Emission Projections Database eGRID 2012 Year 2009 Emissions, including CO2, are estimated using information from various

  3. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 15 SEPTEMBER 28, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  4. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 27 OCTOBER 10, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  5. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 16 AUGUST 29, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  6. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  7. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 12 OCTOBER 25, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three

  8. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 OCTOBER 11, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  9. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 13 SEPTEMBER 26, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  10. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 18 AUGUST 31, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  11. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 11 OCTOBER 24, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three

  12. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 2 AUGUST 15, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  13. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  14. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 17 AUGUST 30, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  15. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 4 AUGUST 17, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  16. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 29 OCTOBER 12, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  17. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 11 SEPTEMBER 24, 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the sixth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  18. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 12, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  19. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Birner, Thomas

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the third year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  20. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 28 SEPTEMBER 10, 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the sixth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  1. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 13 OCTOBER 26, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  2. EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts by Caio A. S. van Oldenborgh, 2006: Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America. J. Climate and promote exchange of expertise and information between European and South American seasonal forecasters

  3. Hourly Temperature Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    ANNGSF) and for forecasting the one-hour-ahead heat load for a district heat load network (Seppl et al and network analysis functions in power utilities. Since high-low temperature forecasts are usually provided-Rohani & Maratukulam, 1998). In other agricultural and environmental applications, even high-low temperature forecasts

  4. Development, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    can the forecasts completely cover the evolution of earthquake-generated tsunami waves: generationDevelopment, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models (forecast models) for use in NOAA's tsunami forecast

  5. 2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA J models 1 INTRODUCTION Solar radiation and PV production forecasts are becoming increasingly important/) three teams of experts are benchmarking their solar radiation forecast against ground truth data

  6. Robust Pareto Optimum Routing of Ships Deterministic and Ensemble Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berlin,Technische Universitt

    Robust Pareto Optimum Routing of Ships utilizing Deterministic and Ensemble Weather Forecasts the SEAROUTES project, who provided me with exquisite weather forecasts, and who inspired me to apply ensemble ship operation. The more reliable weather forecasts and performance simulation of ships in a seaway

  7. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  8. Optimal Design of a Fossil Fuel-Based Hydrogen Infrastructure with Carbon Capture and Sequestration: Case Study in Ohio

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Nils; Yang, Christopher; Ni, Jason; Johnson, Joshua; Lin, Zhenhong; Ogden, Joan M

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Infrastructure with Carbon Capture and Sequestration: CaseINFRASTRUCTURE WITH CARBON CAPTURE AND SEQUESTRATION: CASEhydrogen production with carbon capture and sequestration,

  9. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23T23:59:59.000Z

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  10. To appear in The International Journal of Intelligent Automation and Soft Computing, 2003 Detection of Welding Flaws with MLP Neural Network and Case Based Reasoning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Triantaphyllou, Evangelos

    Detection of Welding Flaws with MLP Neural Network and Case Based Reasoning T. Warren Liao1 *, E-Ze University, Nei-Li 32026, Chung-Li, Taiwan Abstract - The correct detection of welding flaws is important to the successful development of an automated weld inspection system. As a continuation of our previous efforts

  11. Crossing the Divide: A Case Study of Cross-Cultural Organizational Culture and Leadership Perceptions in a Faith-Based Non-Profit

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Muenich, Joelle 1987-

    2012-08-22T23:59:59.000Z

    For this qualitative research a single case study was conducted of a faith-based non-profit organization, Health Education and Literacy Providers (H.E.L.P.), which operates simultaneously in the United States and Nigeria. The purpose of this study...

  12. Quantifying Distributed System Stability through Simulation: A Case Study of an Agent-Based System for Flow Reconstruction of DDoS Attacks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Khan, Bilal

    Quantifying Distributed System Stability through Simulation: A Case Study of an Agent-Based System for Flow Reconstruction of DDoS Attacks Omer Demir Department of Computer Science City University of New denial of service (DDoS) attacks. The pro- posed system provides a description of the structure of flows

  13. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  14. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou--In current restructured wholesale power markets, the short length of time series for prices makes are fitted between D&O and wholesale power prices in order to obtain price scenarios for a specified time

  15. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  16. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Freitas, Nando

    economy. Commodity prices are key economical20 drivers in the market. Raw products such as oil, gold 15 1 Introduction16 17 1.1 Forecasting the commodities market18 The commodities market focuses of prices in both the short and long-term view25 point to help market participants gage a greater

  17. Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dalang, Robert C.

    Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract] Nicolas Gast EPFL, IC generation. The use of energy storage compensates to some extent these negative effects; it plays a buffer role between demand and production. We revisit a model of real storage proposed by Bejan et al.[1]. We

  18. 1994 battery shipment review and five-year forecast report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fetherolf, D. [East Penn Manufacturing Co., Lyon Station, PA (United States)

    1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a 1994 battery shipment review and five year forecast report. Data is presented on replacement battery shipments, battery shipments, car and truck production, truck sales, original equipment, shipments for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, and ten year battery service life trend.

  19. The Galactic Center Weather Forecast M. Moscibrodzka1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gammie, Charles F.

    The Galactic Center Weather Forecast M. Moscibrodzka1 , H. Shiokawa2 , C. F. Gammie2,3 , J*. The > 3M cloud will #12; 2 interact strongly with gas near nominal pericenter at rp 300AU 8000GM/c2 transient phase while the flow circularizes-- accompanied by transient emission--it is natural to think

  20. GenForecast(26yr)(avg).PDF

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SLCAIP Historical & Forecast Generation at Plant Total Range of Hydrology 0 2,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 12,000,000,000 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 2 1...

  1. WIND POWER ENSEMBLE FORECASTING Henrik Aalborg Nielsen1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    WIND POWER ENSEMBLE FORECASTING Henrik Aalborg Nielsen1 , Henrik Madsen1 , Torben Skov Nielsen1. In this paper we address the problems of (i) transforming the mete- orological ensembles to wind power ensembles the uncertainty which follow from historical (climatological) data. However, quite often the actual wind power

  2. URBAN OZONE CONCENTRATION FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN CORSICA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Perceptron; Ozone concentration. 1. Introduction Tropospheric ozone is a major air pollution problem, both, Ajaccio, France, e-mail: balu@univ-corse.fr Abstract: Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air

  3. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    the chance of winds high enough to pose dangers for boats or aircraft. In situations calling for a cost/loss analysis, the probabilities of different outcomes need to be known. For wind speed, this issue often arisesProbabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc

  4. Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

  5. Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

  6. Risk Forecasting with GARCH, Skewed t Distributions, and Multiple Timescales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Risk Forecasting with GARCH, Skewed t Distributions, and Multiple Timescales Alec N. Kercheval describe how the histori- cal data can first be GARCH filtered and then used to calibrate parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 3.2 Data and Stylized Facts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 3.3 GARCH Filter

  7. Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuhl, Michael E.

    Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks Matthew J. Daniels, NY 14623 Elisabeth Hager Hager Consulting Pittsford, NY 14534 Abstract The availability of beds is a critical factor for decision-making in hospitals. Bed availability (or alternatively the bed occupancy

  8. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

  9. Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power and applications of power market simulation models around the world. Argonne's software tools are used extensively

  10. Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gratton, Claudio

    Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T), University of Lome, 114 Rue Agbalepedogan, BP: 20679, Lome, Togo e Center for Agricultural & Energy Policy model of potential biomass supply that incorporates the effect of biological control on crop choice

  11. Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peyraud, Lionel

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The importance of fog forecasting to the aviation community, to road transportation and to the public at large is irrefutable. The deadliest aviation accident in history was in fact partly a result of fog back on 27 March 1977. This has, along...

  12. Classification and forecasting of load curves Nolwen Huet

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cuesta, Juan Antonio

    Classification and forecasting of load curves Nolwen Huet Abstract The load curve, which gives of electricity customer uses. This load curve is only available for customers with automated meter reading. For the others, EDF must estimate this curve. Usually a clustering of the load curves is performed, followed

  13. What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamill, Tom

    1 What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from ensemble Kalman filters? Tom from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due to the model (e.g., stochas2c physics as error; part of spread growth from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due

  14. CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director-year increase in the debt ceiling -- both of which proceeded without the usual drama. Second, the private sector, corporate coffers are flush with cash, and low US energy prices have dramatically improved the global

  15. Exploiting weather forecasts for sizing photovoltaic energy bids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannitrapani, Antonello

    1 Exploiting weather forecasts for sizing photovoltaic energy bids Antonio Giannitrapani, Simone for a photovoltaic (PV) power producer taking part into a competitive electricity market characterized by financial set from an Italian PV plant. Index Terms--Energy market, bidding strategy, photovoltaic power

  16. Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prasanna, Viktor K.

    1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan, prasanna}@usc.edu I. INTRODUCTION Smart Power Grids exemplify an emerging class of Cyber Physical-on paradigm to support operational needs. Smart Grids are an outcome of instrumentation, such as Phasor

  17. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS AND ANALYSES FOR THE 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Page Manager FOSSIL FUELS OFFICE Mike Smith Deputy Director FUELS AND TRANSPORTATION DIVISION Melissa, Weights and Measurements/Gary Castro, Allan Morrison, John Mough, Ed Williams Clean Energy FuelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS AND ANALYSES FOR THE 2009 INTEGRATED

  18. Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannitrapani, Antonello

    bid is computed by exploiting the forecast energy price for the day ahead market, the historical wind renewable energy resources, such as wind and photovoltaic, has grown rapidly. It is well known the problem of optimizing energy bids for an independent Wind Power Producer (WPP) taking part

  19. Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ketter, Wolfgang

    Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges Wolfgang Ketter , John Collins. of Mgmt., Erasmus University Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Minnesota Dept,gini,schrater}@cs.umn.edu, agupta@csom.umn.edu Abstract We present basic building blocks of an agent that can use observable market

  20. Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ketter, Wolfgang

    Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges Wolfgang Ketter # , John Collins, Rotterdam Sch. of Mgmt., Erasmus University + Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, University wketter@rsm.nl, {jcollins,gini,schrater}@cs.umn.edu, agupta@csom.umn.edu Abstract We present basic

  1. THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    energy-using devices in the average U.S. household that used over 4,700 kWh of electricity, natural gas-using devices to energy price, household income, and the cost of these devices. This analysis findsTHE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY SERVICES by Steven Groves BASc

  2. Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    February 24, 2006 1J. McLean Sloughter is Graduate Research Assistant, Adrian E. Raftery is BlumsteinProbabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging J. McLean Sloughter, Adrian E. Raftery and Tilmann Gneiting 1 Department of Statistics, University of Washington

  3. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    : J. McLean Sloughter, Department of Mathematics, Seattle University, 901 12th Ave., P.O. Box 222000Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN SLOUGHTER Seattle University, Seattle, Washington TILMANN GNEITING Heidelberg University, Heidelberg

  4. air pollution forecast: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    air pollution forecast First Page Previous Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM...

  5. Maternal alcohol and coffee drinking, parental smoking and childhood leukemia: a French population-based case-control study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    472 (407 acute lymphoblastic leukemia, ALL and 62 acute myeloblastic leukemia, AML) incident cases of childhood acute leukemia (AL) and 567 population controls frequency matched with cases on age, gender smoking, either maternal or paternal, was observed in acute leukemia. The present results suggest

  6. Adapting a Beam-Based Rotordynamics Model to Accept a General Three-Dimensional Finite-Element Casing Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    James, Stephen M.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    -dimensional axisymmetric beam-element code. ANSYS is used as a code to build three-dimensional non-axisymmetric solid-element casing models. The work done in this thesis opens the scope to incorporate complex non-axisymmetric casing models with XLTRC2....

  7. Cho-k-NN: A Method for Combining Interacting Pieces of Evidence in Case-Based Learning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hllermeier, Eyke

    .g. a pattern along with its classification in pattern recognition or a problem along with a solution in case retrieved from a case library must not be considered as independent information sources, as implicitly done of classification and regression [Riesbeck and Schank, 1989; Kolodner, 1993]. As the term suggests, in CBL special

  8. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  9. Optimal Design of a Fossil Fuel-Based Hydrogen Infrastructure with Carbon Capture and Sequestration: Case Study in Ohio

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Nils; Yang, Christopher; Ni, Jason; Johnson, Joshua; Lin, Zhenhong; Ogden, Joan M

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    M.W. , Initiating hydrogen infrastructures: preliminaryNatural Gas Based Hydrogen Infrastructure Optimizingof a Fossil Fuel-Based Hydrogen Infrastructure with Carbon

  10. EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology -

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    the fluctuating output from wind farms into power plant dispatching and energy trading, wind power predictionsEWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology 1 The Anemos Wind Power a professional, flexible platform for operating wind power prediction models, laying the main focus on state

  11. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13T23:59:59.000Z

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  12. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  13. MARKET BASED K.G. DULEEP

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    OF MODEL Model under development for DOE-EIA is an integrated supply and demand module that forecasts survey data. #12;MODEL - USES Current parallel work effort focuses on market based strategies to reduce

  14. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatist...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    permission. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatist... Yulia Gel; Adrian

  15. Three Essays on Energy Economics and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shin, Yoon Sung

    2012-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    rarely respond to changes of crude oil prices for the first five days. Based on collusive behaviors of retailers, this price asymmetry in Korea diesel market is explained. The second essay aims to evaluate the new incentive system for biodiesel...

  16. A framework for technology forecasting and visualization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Woon, Wei Lee

    This paper presents a novel framework for supporting the development of well-informed research policies and plans. The proposed methodology is based on the use of bibliometrics; i.e., analysis is conducted using information ...

  17. A Framework for Technology Forecasting and Visualization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Woon, Wei Lee

    This paper presents a novel framework for supporting the development of well-informed research policies and plans. The proposed methodology is based on the use of bibliometrics; i.e., analysis is conducted using information ...

  18. Paper title: A practical model-based statistical approach for generating functional test cases: application in the automotive

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Universit de

    : application in the automotive industry Authors: Roy AWEDIKIAN (Corresponding Author) Affiliation 1 Affiliation 2 : Johnson Controls Automotive Electronics Electronics Division Europe Parc Saint Christophe. This approach was tested on two representative case studies from the automotive industry. The experiment

  19. A new affordable housing model in China : a case-based examination of a private developer's role

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stuchell, Claudine C. (Claudine Cecile)

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis examines the motivations behind Wanhuilou, the first affordable housing development to be initiated, constructed, and subsidized by a private developer--China Vanke. This case presents a pioneering firm and a ...

  20. Daily pollution forecast using optimal meteorological data at synoptic and local scales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Russo, Ana; Raischel, Frank; Trigo, Ricardo; Mendes, Manuel

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We present a simple framework to easily pre-select the most essential data for accurately forecasting the concentration of the pollutant PM$_{10}$, based on pollutants observations for the years 2002 until 2006 in the metropolitan region of Lisbon, Portugal. Starting from a broad panoply of different data sets collected at several meteorological stations, we apply a forward stepwise regression procedure that enables us not only to identify the most important variables for forecasting the pollutant but also to rank them in order of importance. We argue the importance of this variable ranking, showing that the ranking is very sensitive to the urban spot where measurements are taken. Having this pre-selection, we then present the potential of linear and non-linear neural network models when applied to the concentration of pollutant PM$_{10}$. Similarly to previous studies for other pollutants, our validation results show that non-linear models in average perform as well or worse as linear models for PM$_{10}$. F...

  1. A Non Parametric Model for the Forecasting of the Venezuelan Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Costanzo, Sabatino; Dehne, Wafaa; Prato, Hender

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A neural net model for forecasting the prices of Venezuelan crude oil is proposed. The inputs of the neural net are selected by reference to a dynamic system model of oil prices by Mashayekhi (1995, 2001) and its performance is evaluated using two criteria: the Excess Profitability test by Anatoliev and Gerko (2005) and the characteristics of the equity curve generated by a trading strategy based on the neural net predictions. ----- Se introduce aqui un modelo no parametrico para pronosticar los precios del petroleo Venezolano cuyos insumos son seleccionados en base a un sistema dinamico que explica los precios en terminos de dichos insumos. Se describe el proceso de recoleccion y pre-procesamiento de datos y la corrida de la red y se evaluan sus pronosticos a traves de un test estadistico de predictibilidad y de las caracteristicas del Equity Curve inducido por la estrategia de compraventa bursatil generada por dichos pronosticos.

  2. California climate change, hydrologic response, and flood forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, Norman L.

    2003-11-11T23:59:59.000Z

    There is strong evidence that the lower atmosphere has been warming at an unprecedented rate during the last 50 years, and it is expected to further increase at least for the next 100 years. Warmer air mass implies a higher capacity to hold water vapor and an increased likelihood of an acceleration of the global water cycle. This acceleration is not validated and considerable new research has gone into understanding aspects of the water cycle (e.g. Miller et al. 2003). Several significant findings on the hydrologic response to climate change can be reported. It is well understood that the observed and expected warming is related to sea level rise. In a recent seminar at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, James Hansen (Director of the Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration) stressed that a 1.25 Wm{sup -2} increase in radiative forcing will lead to an increase in the near surface air temperature by 1 C. This small increase in temperature from 2000 levels is enough to cause very significant impacts to coasts. Maury Roos (Chief Hydrologist, California Department of Water Resources) has shown that a 0.3 m rise in sea level shifts the San Francisco Bay 100-year storm surge flood event to a 10-year event. Related coastal protection costs for California based on sea level rise are shown. In addition to rising sea level, snowmelt-related streamflow represents a particular problem in California. Model studies have indicated that there will be approximately a 50% decrease in snow pack by 2100. This potential deficit must be fully recognized and plans need to be put in place well in advance. In addition, the warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor and result in more intense warm winter-time precipitation events that result in flooding. During anticipated high flow, reservoirs need to release water to maintain their structural integrity. California is at risk of water shortages, floods, and related ecosystem stresses. More research needs to be done to further improve our ability to forecast weather events at longer time scales. Seasonal predictions have been statistical and only recently have studies begun to use ensemble simulations and historical observations to constrain such predictions. Understanding the mechanisms of large-scale atmospheric dynamics and its local impacts remain topics of intensive research. The ability to predict extreme events and provide policy makers with this information, along with climate change and hydrologic response information, will help to guide planning to form a more resilient infrastructure in the future.

  3. Physically based modeling of rainfall-triggered landslides: a case study in the Luquillo forest, Puerto Rico

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnone, E.

    This paper presents the development of a rainfall-triggered landslide module within an existing physically based spatially distributed ecohydrologic model. The model, tRIBS-VEGGIE (Triangulated Irregular Networks-based ...

  4. Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and Energy Reliability As part of Cooperative Agreement No. DE-EE0003507 Under Task 3.1: Photovoltaic Systems Reliability Under Cooperative Agreement No. DE-EE0003507 Hawai`i Energy Sustainability Program Subtask 3.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation

  5. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R. [and others

    1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  6. The Milling Assistant, Case-Based Reasoning, and machining strategy: A report on the development of automated numerical control programming systems at New Mexico State University

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burd, W. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Culler, D.; Eskridge, T.; Cox, L.; Slater, T. [New Mexico State Univ., Las Cruces, NM (United States)

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Milling Assistant (MA) programming system demonstrates the automated development of tool paths for Numerical Control (NC) machine tools. By integrating a Case-Based Reasoning decision processor with a commercial CAD/CAM software, intelligent tool path files for milled and point-to-point features can be created. The operational system is capable of reducing the time required to program a variety of parts and improving product quality by collecting and utilizing ``best of practice`` machining strategies.

  7. Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

    2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

  8. Forecasting Seismic Signatures of Stellar Magnetic Activity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    W. A. Dziembowski

    2007-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

    For the Sun, a tight correlation between various activity measures and oscillation frequencies is well documented. For other stars, we have abundant data on magnetic activity and its changes but not yet on its seismic signature. A prediction of the activity induced frequency changes in stars based on scaling the solar relations is presented. This seismic signature of the activity should be measurable in the data expected within few years.

  9. Early growth technology analysis : case studies in solar energy and geothermal energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kaya Firat, Ayse

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Public and private organizations try to forecast the future of technological developments and allocate funds accordingly. Based on our interviews with experts from MIT's Entrepreneurship Center, Sloan School of Management, ...

  10. Pressure Normalization of Production Rates Improves Forecasting Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lacayo Ortiz, Juan Manuel

    2013-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    reservoir conditions, psi 2/cp ?wf Pseudopressure at flowing conditions, psi 2/cp ? Characteristic time parameter for SEPD model, D ?g Gas viscosity, cp ?o Oil viscosity, cp Acronyms BDF Boundary-Dominated Flow DCA Decline Curve Analysis EUR..., as the advanced analytical and numerical models depend on copious inputs, there is a high probability that different combinations of those parameters could generate equivalent and acceptable history matches, but different production forecasts and EUR...

  11. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom [Vanderbilt University, Nashville; Quaranta, Vito [Vanderbilt University, Nashville; Evans, Katherine J [ORNL; Rericha, Erin [Vanderbilt University, Nashville

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  12. Adapting a Beam-Based Rotordynamics Model to Accept a General Three-Dimensional Finite-Element Casing Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    James, Stephen M.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    The subject of this thesis is an extension of a two-dimensional, axisymmetric, Timoshenko-beam finite-element rotordynamic code to include a three-dimensional non-axisymmetric solid-element casing model. Axisymmetric beams are sufficient to model...

  13. Prevalence and contribution of BRCA1 mutations in breast cancer and ovarian cancer: Results from three US population-based case-control studies of ovarian cancer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whittemore, A.S.; Gong, G.; Itnyre, J. [Stanford Univ. School of Medicine, CA (United States)

    1997-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We investigate the familial risks of cancers of the breast and ovary, using data pooled from three population-based case-control studies of ovarian cancer that were conducted in the United States. We base estimates of the frequency of mutations of BRCA1 (and possibly other genes) on the reported occurrence of breast cancer and ovarian cancer in the mothers and sisters of 922 women with incident ovarian cancer (cases) and in 922 women with no history of ovarian cancer (controls). Segregation analysis and goodness-of-fit testing of genetic models suggest that rare mutations (frequency .0014; 95% confidence interval .0002-.011) account for all the observed aggregation of breast cancer and ovarian cancer in these families. The estimated risk of breast cancer by age 80 years is 73.5% in mutation carriers and 6.8% in noncarriers. The corresponding estimates for ovarian cancer are 27.8% in carriers and 1.8% in noncarriers. For cancer risk in carriers, these estimates are lower than those obtained from families selected for high cancer prevalence. The estimated proportion of all U.S. cancer diagnoses, by age 80 years, that are due to germ-line BRCA1 mutations is 3.0% for breast cancer and 4.4% for ovarian cancer. Aggregation of breast cancer and ovarian cancer was less evident in the families of 169 cases with borderline ovarian cancers than in the families of cases with invasive cancers. Familial aggregation did not differ by the ethnicity of the probands, although the number of non-White and Hispanic cases (N = 99) was sparse. 14 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs.

  14. Productivity index and field behavior: a case study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jensen, Marianne

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    ) to explain the irrational behavior of the productivity index in a case study presented. The problem has its origin in a field in north Africa, where irrational behavior of the productivity index (PI) has made it difficult to forecast the field performance...

  15. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  16. Achieving HR-Firm Performance Linkage through Organizational Strategy Implementation: Qualitative Case Studies of Four U.S. Based Firms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alagaraja, Meera

    2012-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    LQS Lean and Quality Strategy HRM&D Human Resource Management & Development C1 Company 1 (Industrial Distributor) C2 Company 2 (Electronics Distributor) C3 Company 3 (Automotive Distributor) C4 Company 4 (Chemical Distributor) ix TABLE..., electronics, automotive and chemical), they jointly shared and yet differentiate firm and HR specific characteristics. Thus organizations situate HRM&D differently in the cases offering a balance of similarity and differences in leveraging available...

  17. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  18. Forecasting future oil production in Norway and the UK: a general improved methodology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fievet, Lucas; Cauwels, Peter; Sornette, Didier

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production, as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 188 +/- 10 million barrels for Norway and 98 +/- 10 million barrels for the UK, which are respectively 45% and 66% above the predictions using the standard methodology.

  19. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2 2. Annual Energy Outlook (Administrations Annual Energy Outlook forecasted price (of Energy, Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to

  20. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Downwardsurfacesolarradiation datareleasedat12UTCforecastshortwaveradiationwithdataobtainedfromtheradiation: Astatisticalapproachusingsatellitedata.

  1. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  2. The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    a unique sampling of articles, we examine academic and mediaSample Articles Prediction Source Academic and Trade Totalshow that articles reporting on academic forecasts have

  3. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    user needs for convective weather forecasts," in AmericanJ. Andrews M. Weber, "Weather Information Requirements forInt. Conf. on Aviation Weather, Paris, France. [5] NASDAC. (

  4. Continuous reservoir simulation model updating and forecasting using a markov chain monte carlo method

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Chang

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    forecasts of well and reservoir performance, accessible at any time. It can be used to optimize long-term reservoir performance at field scale....

  5. Feedback loops in educational environments using web-based survey tools : new technology development and three implementation case studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Spead, Benjamin, 1978-

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis presents lessons from the development of an on-line, web-based feedback system and preliminary analysis of the socio-technical interactions associated with the specification, design and use of this system. The ...

  6. A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Phanthuwongpakdee, Kay; Hall, Amanda C.; Bates, Paul D.

    2013-11-04T23:59:59.000Z

    At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domain has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode revealed that it is crucial to account for basin-wide hydrological response time when assessing lead time performances notwithstanding structural limitations in the hydrological model and possibly large inaccuracies in precipitation data.

  7. Reading the Tea Leaves: How Utilities in the West Are Managing Carbon Regulatory Risk in their Resource Plans

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barbose, Galen

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    study to develop natural gas price forecasts for each of itsits base-case natural gas price forecast. PSCo found that,develop separate natural gas price forecasts for each of its

  8. Production Management Decision Analysis Using AI-Based Proxy Modeling of Reservoir Simulations A Look-Back Case Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    SPE 170664 Production Management Decision Analysis Using AI-Based Proxy Modeling of Reservoir in the Middle East. This prolific mature asset that includes more than 160 production wells has been the subject of peripheral water injection for many years to maintain pressure and help displace oil toward the production

  9. Exploring scaling up community-based adaptation: A case study with the PRODUCE Project in Rangpur, Bangladesh

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Harsoyo, Dwi, L. R.

    2012-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

    is an approach to respond to these immediate impacts by adjusting the natural or human systems in response to actual impacts of climate change. Community-based adaptation (CBA) is a bottom-up and development-oriented view of adaptation that accommodates...

  10. Achieving HR-Firm Performance Linkage through Organizational Strategy Implementation: Qualitative Case Studies of Four U.S. Based Firms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alagaraja, Meera

    2012-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    elaborates on ways in which organizations achieve the HR-firm performance linkage using the resource-based view of the firm as a theoretical framework. In order to do so, the study examined HRM&D function involvement in lean and quality strategy (LQS...

  11. A web-based method of distributing spatial resources for free: a case study of orienteering maps

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heron, Kyle

    2010-11-24T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this project was to develop a web-based method for distributing a spatial resource for free. In order for a service like this to be effective, a way of searching for the resource and providing it must both be made available...

  12. A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mellit, Adel [Department of Electronics, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, LAMEL, Jijel University, Ouled-aissa, P.O. Box 98, Jijel 18000 (Algeria); Pavan, Alessandro Massi [Department of Materials and Natural Resources, University of Trieste Via A. Valerio, 2 - 34127 Trieste (Italy)

    2010-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting of solar irradiance is in general significant for planning the operations of power plants which convert renewable energies into electricity. In particular, the possibility to predict the solar irradiance (up to 24 h or even more) can became - with reference to the Grid Connected Photovoltaic Plants (GCPV) - fundamental in making power dispatching plans and - with reference to stand alone and hybrid systems - also a useful reference for improving the control algorithms of charge controllers. In this paper, a practical method for solar irradiance forecast using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The proposed Multilayer Perceptron MLP-model makes it possible to forecast the solar irradiance on a base of 24 h using the present values of the mean daily solar irradiance and air temperature. An experimental database of solar irradiance and air temperature data (from July 1st 2008 to May 23rd 2009 and from November 23rd 2009 to January 24th 2010) has been used. The database has been collected in Trieste (latitude 45 40'N, longitude 13 46'E), Italy. In order to check the generalization capability of the MLP-forecaster, a K-fold cross-validation was carried out. The results indicate that the proposed model performs well, while the correlation coefficient is in the range 98-99% for sunny days and 94-96% for cloudy days. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the GCPV plant installed on the rooftop of the municipality of Trieste shows the goodness of the proposed model. (author)

  13. Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koomey, Jonathan G.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1. Lawrence BerkeleyEnd-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1. Lawrence BerkeleyPower Research Institute. EPRI Research Project Meier, Alan

  14. Error growth in poor ECMWF forecasts over the contiguous United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modlin, Norman Ray

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    are found to have the majority of RMS growth on day I while poor forecasts do not experience rapid error growth until days 3 and 4. For poor forecasts, the leading EOFs reveal a wave pattern down stream of the Rocky Mountains. This pattern evolves...

  15. Extendedrange seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamicalstatistical model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    Extendedrange seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid 20 September 2010; published 9 November 2010. [1] A hybrid forecast model for seasonal hurricane between the number of seasonal hurricane and the large scale variables from ECMWF hindcasts. The increase

  16. Using meteorological data to forecast seasonal runoff on the River Jhelum, Pakistan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fowler, Hayley

    Using meteorological data to forecast seasonal runoff on the River Jhelum, Pakistan D.R. Archer a of Pakistan. Seasonal forecasts of spring and summer flow provide the opportunity for planning and would of Control between In- dia and Pakistan. The Jhelum then flows through the plains of the Punjab, where

  17. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime-Switching

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genton, Marc G.

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at a wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime. Geographically dispersed was applied to 2-hour-ahead forecasts of hourly average wind speed near the Stateline wind energy center

  18. he long-term economic forecast calls for the continuation of the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hemmers, Oliver

    T he long-term economic forecast calls for the continuation of the economic recovery in 2014 predicts a steady economic recovery for Southern Nevada from 2014 onward. The Las Vegas economy-Term Economic Forecast Figure 1: Total Employment (1990-2050) Source: Center for Business and Economic Research

  19. Employment Forecasts for Ohio's Primary Metals Manufacturing and Administrative and Support Services Industries

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Illinois at Chicago, University of

    that are outperforming the industry average. Additional research shows that the industry is reactive to manufacturingEmployment Forecasts for Ohio's Primary Metals Manufacturing and Administrative and Support, the primary metals manufacturing industry (NAICS 331000) employment in Ohio is forecasted to decline by 21

  20. Improvements in wind speed forecasts for wind power prediction purposes using Kalman filtering

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Universit de

    1 Improvements in wind speed forecasts for wind power prediction purposes using Kalman filtering P : 10.1016/j.jweia.2008.03.013 #12;2 Abstract This paper studies the application of Kalman filtering forecasts. The application of Kalman filter to these data leads to the elimination of any possible