National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for balance forecast integration

  1. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  2. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    generation output by using forecasts that incorporate meteorological data to predict production. Such systems typically provide forecasts at a number of timescales, ranging from...

  3. Wind Integration Program: Balancing the Future

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Integration Program: Balancing the Future Initial Discussions 3072012 2 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Background BPA has implemented a number...

  4. Balance of Plant Needs and Integration of Stack Components for...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Needs and Integration of Stack Components for Stationary Power and CHP Applications Balance of Plant Needs and Integration of Stack Components for Stationary Power and CHP ...

  5. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  6. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  7. Role of Large Balancing Areas In Integrating Solar Generation: Solar Integration Series. 3 of 3 (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-05-01

    The third out of a series of three fact sheets describing the role of large balancing areas in integrating solar generation.

  8. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  9. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach ...

  10. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  11. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  12. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  13. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  14. Greening the Grid Special Topic: Facilitating the Integration of Renewable Energy through Balancing Cooperation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cochran, Jaquelin

    2016-01-01

    The Greening the Grid animation shows facilitating the integration of renewable energy through balancing cooperation step-by-step.

  15. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho and Oregon

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy and the electricity industry have jointly invested over $7.9 billion in 99 cost-shared Smart Grid Investment Grant projects to modernize the electric grid, strengthen cybersecurity, improve interoperability, and collect an unprecedented level of data on smart grid and customer operations. 1. Summary Idaho Power Company (IPC)

  16. The Role of Large Balancing Areas In Integrating Solar Generation: Solar Integration Series. 3 of 3 (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Solar Energy Technologies Program

    2011-05-03

    The third out of a series of three fact sheets describing the role of large balancing areas in integrating solar generation.

  17. Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Balance of Plant and Stack Component Integration |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Balance of Plant and Stack Component Integration Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Balance of Plant and Stack Component Integration Presentation by Acumentrics Corporation for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Balance of Plant and Stack Component Integration March 16, 2010 PDF icon fuelcell_pre-solicitation_wkshop_mar10_bessette.pdf More Documents & Publications The Micro-CHP Technologies Roadmap, December 2003 High Temperature BOP and Fuel Processing Ceramic Fuel Cells (SOFC)

  18. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  19. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  20. Balance of Plant Needs and Integration of Stack Components for Stationary

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Power and CHP Applications | Department of Energy Needs and Integration of Stack Components for Stationary Power and CHP Applications Balance of Plant Needs and Integration of Stack Components for Stationary Power and CHP Applications Presentation on Balance of Plant Needs and Integration of Stack Components for Stationary Power and CHP Applications for Fuel Cell Pre-solicitation Workshop March 10, 2010 PDF icon fuelcell_pre-solicitation_wkshop_mar10_ainscough.pdf More Documents &

  1. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  2. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  3. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  4. Solar Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Systems Integration » Solar Forecasting Solar Forecasting On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S. solar energy plants. Part of the SunShot Systems Integration efforts, the Solar Forecasting projects will allow power system operators to integrate more solar energy into the electricity grid, and ensure the economic and reliable delivery of

  5. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model By Tancred C.M. Lidderdale This article first appeared in the Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement 1995, Energy Information Administration, DOE/EIA-0202(95) (Washington, DC, July 1995), pp. 33-42, 83-85. The regression results and historical data for production, inventories, and imports have been updated in this presentation. Contents * Introduction o Table 1. Oxygenate production capacity and demand *

  6. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  7. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  8. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  9. Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting Flu March 6, 2016 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del Valle and her team from Los Alamos National Laboratory have developed a global disease-forecasting system that will improve the way we respond to epidemics. Using this model, individuals and public health officials can monitor

  10. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma  ARM AAF Wiki page  Weather Briefings  Observed Weather  Cloud forecasting models  BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated twice/day (12Z and 00Z) Forecast out to 84-hours RUC (updated every 3 hours) Operational RUC forecast only goes out 12 hours (developmental out 24 hours)

  11. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  12. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  13. Wind Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Generation - ScheduledActual Balancing Reserves - Deployed Near Real-time Wind Animation Wind Projects under Review Growth Forecast Fact Sheets Working together to address...

  14. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  15. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  16. NV Energy Solar Integration Study: Cycling and Movements of Conventional Generators for Balancing Services

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Shuai; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Makarov, Yuri V.; Guo, Xinxin

    2011-07-01

    With an increasing penetration level of solar power in the southern Nevada system, the impact of solar on system operations needs to be carefully studied from various perspectives. Qualitatively, it is expected that the balancing requirements to compensate for solar power variability will be larger in magnitude; meanwhile, generators providing load following and regulation services will be moved up or down more frequently. One of the most important tasks is to quantitatively evaluate the cycling and movements of conventional generators with solar power at different penetration levels. This study is focused on developing effective methodologies for this goal and providing a basis for evaluating the wear and tear of the conventional generators

  17. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  18. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  19. Acquisition Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    It is the policy of the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE/NNSA’s forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department’s major site and facilities management contractors.

  20. Simulating cyanobacterial phenotypes by integrating flux balance analysis, kinetics, and a light distribution function

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    He, Lian; Wu, Stephen G.; Wan, Ni; Reding, Adrienne C.; Tang, Yinjie J.

    2015-12-24

    In this study, genome-scale models (GSMs) are widely used to predict cyanobacterial phenotypes in photobioreactors (PBRs). However, stoichiometric GSMs mainly focus on fluxome that result in maximal yields. Cyanobacterial metabolism is controlled by both intracellular enzymes and photobioreactor conditions. To connect both intracellular and extracellular information and achieve a better understanding of PBRs productivities, this study integrates a genome-scale metabolic model of Synechocystis 6803 with growth kinetics, cell movements, and a light distribution function. The hybrid platform not only maps flux dynamics in cells of sub-populations but also predicts overall production titer and rate in PBRs. Analysis of the integratedmore » GSM demonstrates several results. First, cyanobacteria are capable of reaching high biomass concentration (>20 g/L in 21 days) in PBRs without light and CO2 mass transfer limitations. Second, fluxome in a single cyanobacterium may show stochastic changes due to random cell movements in PBRs. Third, insufficient light due to cell self-shading can activate the oxidative pentose phosphate pathway in subpopulation cells. Fourth, the model indicates that the removal of glycogen synthesis pathway may not improve cyanobacterial bio-production in large-size PBRs, because glycogen can support cell growth in the dark zones. Based on experimental data, the integrated GSM estimates that Synechocystis 6803 in shake flask conditions has a photosynthesis efficiency of ~2.7 %. Conclusions: The multiple-scale integrated GSM, which examines both intracellular and extracellular domains, can be used to predict production yield/rate/titer in large-size PBRs. More importantly, genetic engineering strategies predicted by a traditional GSM may work well only in optimal growth conditions. In contrast, the integrated GSM may reveal mutant physiologies in diverse bioreactor conditions, leading to the design of robust strains with high chances of success in industrial settings.« less

  1. The role of SEA in integrating and balancing high policy objectives in European cohesion funding programmes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jiricka, Alexandra Proebstl, Ulrike

    2013-01-15

    Funding programmes for European cohesion policy are a crucial tool to support the sustainability goals of the European Union and national policies of its member states. All these funding programmes require a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) to enhance sustainable development. This article compares five first SEA applications at cohesion policy level to discuss challenges, limitations and benefits of this instrument. In order to support the SEA-process a 'Handbook on SEA for Cohesion Policy 2007-13' (GRDP 2006) was developed. The paper examines the special requirements and challenges at the programme level given the special conditions for stakeholder involvement, integration of SEA in the programme development process and strategies to cope with uncertainties to ensure real compatibility with policy goals. Using action research and in-depth interviews with SEA planners and programme managers enabled us to analyse the suitability of the methodology proposed by the handbook. The results show that some recommendations of the handbook should be changed in order to increase the transparency and to enhance the standard and comparability of the SEA-documents. Overall the SEA proved to be a rather successful tool for the integration of sustainability goals at the EU and national policy levels. Its particular strengths emerged as the process makes uncertainties visible and leads to possible redefinitions while maintaining actual policy goals. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Comparing five case studies of first applications of SEA at cohesion policy level. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Overall the SEA proved to be a rather successful tool for the integration of sustainability goals. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The study makes uncertainties visible and shows how SEA could lead to possible redefinitions.

  2. Hawaii Energy Strategy: Program guide. [Contains special sections on analytical energy forecasting, renewable energy resource assessment, demand-side energy management, energy vulnerability assessment, and energy strategy integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-09-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy program, or HES, is a set of seven projects which will produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. It will include a comprehensive energy vulnerability assessment with recommended courses of action to decrease Hawaii's energy vulnerability and to better prepare for an effective response to any energy emergency or supply disruption. The seven projects are designed to increase understanding of Hawaii's energy situation and to produce recommendations to achieve the State energy objectives of: Dependable, efficient, and economical state-wide energy systems capable of supporting the needs of the people, and increased energy self-sufficiency. The seven projects under the Hawaii Energy Strategy program include: Project 1: Develop Analytical Energy Forecasting Model for the State of Hawaii. Project 2: Fossil Energy Review and Analysis. Project 3: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Development Program. Project 4: Demand-Side Management Program. Project 5: Transportation Energy Strategy. Project 6: Energy Vulnerability Assessment Report and Contingency Planning. Project 7: Energy Strategy Integration and Evaluation System.

  3. Lessons from Large-Scale Renewable Energy Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In general, large-scale integration studies in Europe and the United States find that high penetrations of renewable generation are technically feasible with operational changes and increased access to transmission. This paper describes other key findings such as the need for fast markets, large balancing areas, system flexibility, and the use of advanced forecasting.

  4. Integrating Variable Renewable Energy: Challenges and Solutions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Milligan, M.; Lew, D.

    2013-09-01

    In the U.S., a number of utilities are adopting higher penetrations of renewables, driven in part by state policies. While power systems have been designed to handle the variable nature of loads, the additional supply-side variability and uncertainty can pose new challenges for utilities and system operators. However, a variety of operational and technical solutions exist to help integrate higher penetrations of wind and solar generation. This paper explores renewable energy integration challenges and mitigation strategies that have been implemented in the U.S. and internationally, including forecasting, demand response, flexible generation, larger balancing areas or balancing area cooperation, and operational practices such as fast scheduling and dispatch.

  5. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical

  6. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  7. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-10-03

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

  8. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  9. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  10. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  11. Multidimensional spectral load balancing

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hendrickson, Bruce A. (Albuquerque, NM); Leland, Robert W. (Albuquerque, NM)

    1996-12-24

    A method of and apparatus for graph partitioning involving the use of a plurality of eigenvectors of the Laplacian matrix of the graph of the problem for which load balancing is desired. The invention is particularly useful for optimizing parallel computer processing of a problem and for minimizing total pathway lengths of integrated circuits in the design stage.

  12. Dynamic load balancing of applications

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wheat, Stephen R. (Albuquerque, NM)

    1997-01-01

    An application-level method for dynamically maintaining global load balance on a parallel computer, particularly on massively parallel MIMD computers. Global load balancing is achieved by overlapping neighborhoods of processors, where each neighborhood performs local load balancing. The method supports a large class of finite element and finite difference based applications and provides an automatic element management system to which applications are easily integrated.

  13. Dynamic load balancing of applications

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wheat, S.R.

    1997-05-13

    An application-level method for dynamically maintaining global load balance on a parallel computer, particularly on massively parallel MIMD computers is disclosed. Global load balancing is achieved by overlapping neighborhoods of processors, where each neighborhood performs local load balancing. The method supports a large class of finite element and finite difference based applications and provides an automatic element management system to which applications are easily integrated. 13 figs.

  14. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications Market Studies LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications ...

  15. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  16. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, J. M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-11

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  18. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. ... Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. ...

  19. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  20. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    probabilistic energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management

  1. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  2. Grid Integration of Aggregated Demand Response, Part 2: Modeling Demand Response in a Production Cost Model

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Renewable integration studies have evaluated many challenges associated with deploying large amounts of variable wind and solar generation technologies. These studies can evaluate operational impacts associated with variable generation, benefits of improved wind and solar resource forecasting, and trade-offs between institutional changes, including increasing balancing area cooperation and technical changes such as installing new flexible generation. Demand response (DR) resources present a potentially important source of grid flexibility and can aid in integrating variable generation; however, integration analyses have not yet incorporated these resources explicitly into grid simulation models as part of a standard toolkit for resource planners.

  3. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  4. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  5. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  6. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    based on today's forecast." Del Valle and her team were able to successfully monitor influenza in the United States, Poland, Japan and Thailand, dengue fever in Brazil and...

  7. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  8. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  9. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  10. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  11. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  12. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex...

  13. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am...

  14. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  15. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  16. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  17. Integrating Solar PV in Utility System Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mills, A.; Botterud, A.; Wu, J.; Zhou, Z.; Hodge, B-M.; Heany, M.

    2013-10-31

    This study develops a systematic framework for estimating the increase in operating costs due to uncertainty and variability in renewable resources, uses the framework to quantify the integration costs associated with sub-hourly solar power variability and uncertainty, and shows how changes in system operations may affect these costs. Toward this end, we present a statistical method for estimating the required balancing reserves to maintain system reliability along with a model for commitment and dispatch of the portfolio of thermal and renewable resources at different stages of system operations. We estimate the costs of sub-hourly solar variability, short-term forecast errors, and day-ahead (DA) forecast errors as the difference in production costs between a case with “realistic” PV (i.e., subhourly solar variability and uncertainty are fully included in the modeling) and a case with “well behaved” PV (i.e., PV is assumed to have no sub-hourly variability and can be perfectly forecasted). In addition, we highlight current practices that allow utilities to compensate for the issues encountered at the sub-hourly time frame with increased levels of PV penetration. In this analysis we use the analytical framework to simulate utility operations with increasing deployment of PV in a case study of Arizona Public Service Company (APS), a utility in the southwestern United States. In our analysis, we focus on three processes that are important in understanding the management of PV variability and uncertainty in power system operations. First, we represent the decisions made the day before the operating day through a DA commitment model that relies on imperfect DA forecasts of load and wind as well as PV generation. Second, we represent the decisions made by schedulers in the operating day through hour-ahead (HA) scheduling. Peaking units can be committed or decommitted in the HA schedules and online units can be redispatched using forecasts that are improved relative to DA forecasts, but still imperfect. Finally, we represent decisions within the operating hour by schedulers and transmission system operators as real-time (RT) balancing. We simulate the DA and HA scheduling processes with a detailed unit-commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) optimization model. This model creates a least-cost dispatch and commitment plan for the conventional generating units using forecasts and reserve requirements as inputs. We consider only the generation units and load of the utility in this analysis; we do not consider opportunities to trade power with neighboring utilities. We also do not consider provision of reserves from renewables or from demand-side options. We estimate dynamic reserve requirements in order to meet reliability requirements in the RT operations, considering the uncertainty and variability in load, solar PV, and wind resources. Balancing reserve requirements are based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of 1-min deviations from the HA schedule in a previous year. We then simulate RT deployment of balancing reserves using a separate minute-by-minute simulation of deviations from the HA schedules in the operating year. In the simulations we assume that balancing reserves can be fully deployed in 10 min. The minute-by-minute deviations account for HA forecasting errors and the actual variability of the load, wind, and solar generation. Using these minute-by-minute deviations and deployment of balancing reserves, we evaluate the impact of PV on system reliability through the calculation of the standard reliability metric called Control Performance Standard 2 (CPS2). Broadly speaking, the CPS2 score measures the percentage of 10-min periods in which a balancing area is able to balance supply and demand within a specific threshold. Compliance with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) reliability standards requires that the CPS2 score must exceed 90% (i.e., the balancing area must maintain adequate balance for 90% of the 10-min periods). The combination of representing DA forecast errors in the DA commitments, using 1-min PV data to simulate RT balancing, and estimates of reliability performance through the CPS2 metric, all factors that are important to operating systems with increasing amounts of PV, makes this study unique in its scope.

  18. Lessons Learned with Early PV Plant Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    31 * Consists of all transformers and feeders for entire ... and Lessons Learned with Power Plant Integration Agenda ... DG, forecast transients harmonics Application to APS ...

  19. Solar Forecast Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecast Improvement Project Solar Forecast Improvement Project NOAA.png For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more accurate methods for solar forecasts using their state-of-the-art weather models. APPROACH NOAA solar.png SFIP has three main goals: 1) to develop solar forecasting metrics tailored to the utility sector; 2) to improve solar

  20. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  1. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information 2015 DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Project Peer Review Goal Statement Addresses the following MYPP BETO goals:  Advance scientific methods and models for measuring and understanding

  2. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  3. Polarization-balanced beamsplitter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Decker, D.E.

    1998-02-17

    A beamsplitter assembly is disclosed that includes several beamsplitter cubes arranged to define a plurality of polarization-balanced light paths. Each polarization-balanced light path contains one or more balanced pairs of light paths, where each balanced pair of light paths includes either two transmission light paths with orthogonal polarization effects or two reflection light paths with orthogonal polarization effects. The orthogonal pairing of said transmission and reflection light paths cancels polarization effects otherwise caused by beamsplitting. 10 figs.

  4. Polarization-balanced beamsplitter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Decker, Derek E. (Livermore, CA)

    1998-01-01

    A beamsplitter assembly that includes several beamsplitter cubes arranged to define a plurality of polarization-balanced light paths. Each polarization-balanced light path contains one or more balanced pairs of light paths, where each balanced pair of light paths includes either two transmission light paths with orthogonal polarization effects or two reflection light paths with orthogonal polarization effects. The orthogonal pairing of said transmission and reflection light paths cancels polarization effects otherwise caused by beamsplitting.

  5. Beyond Beginning Balances Presentation

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Beyond Beginning Balances Peter Dessaules DOE/SO-62 Obligations Accounting Implementation Workshop Obligations Accounting Implementation Workshop January 13, 2004 January 13, 2004 Crowne Crowne Plaza Plaza Ravinia Ravinia Atlanta, Georgia Atlanta, Georgia Beginning Foreign Obligation Beginning Foreign Obligation Balances Balances * Why are they important? - United States Agreements for Cooperation hold Treaty status. - These Agreements require periodic reporting to the foreign countries. -

  6. Lithium Balance | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Balance Jump to: navigation, search Name: Lithium Balance Place: Copenhagen, Denmark Product: Lithium ion battery developer. References: Lithium Balance1 This article is a stub....

  7. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  8. Comprehensive Solutions for Integration of Solar Resources into Grid Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This project primarily looks at the benefits from more cost-effective unit commitment and dispatch, and reduction in balancing reserves due to reducing uncertainty in solar forecasting. This...

  9. Balancing coal pipes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Earley, D.; Kirkenir, B.

    2009-11-15

    Balancing coal flow to the burners to optimise combustion by using real-time measurement systems (such as microwave mass measurement) is discussed. 3 figs.

  10. Self Supplied Balancing Reserves

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Self-Supplied-Balancing-Reserves Sign In About | Careers | Contact | Investors | bpa.gov Search News & Us Expand News & Us Projects & Initiatives Expand Projects &...

  11. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  12. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  13. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities Equipment Rental FOC 238910 TBD 3Q FY15/ 3Q

  14. Cooperation Among Balancing Authorities Offers Greater Use of Renewable

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy with Lower Integration Costs | Department of Energy Cooperation Among Balancing Authorities Offers Greater Use of Renewable Energy with Lower Integration Costs Cooperation Among Balancing Authorities Offers Greater Use of Renewable Energy with Lower Integration Costs May 1, 2012 - 3:10pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Second Quarter 2012 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. Since February 2010, the Variable Generation Subcommittee at the Western Electricity

  15. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and ... energy technologies based on estimates of future rates of progress and adoption. ...

  16. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  17. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  18. ARM - Carbon Cycle Balance

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Carbon Cycle Balance Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Carbon Cycle Balance The net result of this recycling is that our atmosphere now gains a total of 5 gigatonnes (1 gigatonne = 1x1012 kilograms) of carbon annually. Nearly all of this ends up in gases that are greenhouse

  19. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  20. Solar Install Mount Production Labor Equipment Simple Balance of Systems |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Install Mount Production Labor Equipment Simple Balance of Systems Solar Install Mount Production Labor Equipment Simple Balance of Systems GA Tech logo.jpg The Georgia Tech Applied Research Corporation (GTARC/GTRI), Radiance Solar, a low cost solar integrator, and Suniva, a US based high efficiency, low cost cell and module manufacturer collaborate to develop a commercially ready, next generation solar PV balance of system design. The objective can be accomplished

  1. Balance Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Balance Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name: Balance Energy Place: San Diego, California Zip: 92127-1874 Product: California-based end to end smart grid developer. References:...

  2. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be lower this summer than previously thought. The price for regular gasoline this summer is now expected to average $3.53 a gallon, according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That's down 10 cents from last month's forecast and 16 cents cheaper than last summer. After reaching a weekly peak of $3.78 a gallon in late February, pump prices fell nine weeks in a row to $3.52

  3. Systems Integration Competitive Awards

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the SunShot Systems Integration efforts, DOE is funding a range of research and development (R&D) projects to advance balance of system hardware technologies, such as racking systems...

  4. Work/Life Balance

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Workplace » Work/Life Balance /careers/_assets/images/careers-icon.jpg Work/Life Balance Explore the multiple dimensions of a career at Los Alamos Lab: work with the best minds on the planet in an inclusive environment that is rich in intellectual vitality and opportunities for growth. What our employees say: Health & Wellness "The Lab pays 80 percent of my family's medical premiums with Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Mexico." Retirement & Savings "With the Lab matching my

  5. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  6. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  7. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  8. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  9. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  10. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  11. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  12. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  13. Systems Integration | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Systems Integration Systems Integration Hawaii DREAMS of New Solar Technologies Hawaii DREAMS of New Solar Technologies Read more Plug and Play Solar PV for American Homes Plug and Play Solar PV for American Homes Read more Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Modal, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Modal, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Read more High PV Penetration with Energy Storage in Flagstaff, AZ High PV Penetration with Energy Storage

  14. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  15. Balancing Item (Billion Cubic Feet)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Balancing Item (Billion Cubic Feet) Balancing Item (Billion Cubic Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001 140 143 41 166 30 -13 -8 -6 -26 -133 -76 -161 2002...

  16. Integrated Simulation Development and Decision Support Tool-Set for Utility Market and Distributed Solar Power Generation Electricore, Inc.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Daye, Tony

    2013-09-30

    This project will enable utilities to develop long-term strategic plans that integrate high levels of renewable energy generation, and to better plan power system operations under high renewable penetration. The program developed forecast data streams for decision support and effective integration of centralized and distributed solar power generation in utility operations. This toolset focused on real time simulation of distributed power generation within utility grids with the emphasis on potential applications in day ahead (market) and real time (reliability) utility operations. The project team developed and demonstrated methodologies for quantifying the impact of distributed solar generation on core utility operations, identified protocols for internal data communication requirements, and worked with utility personnel to adapt the new distributed generation (DG) forecasts seamlessly within existing Load and Generation procedures through a sophisticated DMS. This project supported the objectives of the SunShot Initiative and SUNRISE by enabling core utility operations to enhance their simulation capability to analyze and prepare for the impacts of high penetrations of solar on the power grid. The impact of high penetration solar PV on utility operations is not only limited to control centers, but across many core operations. Benefits of an enhanced DMS using state-of-the-art solar forecast data were demonstrated within this project and have had an immediate direct operational cost savings for Energy Marketing for Day Ahead generation commitments, Real Time Operations, Load Forecasting (at an aggregate system level for Day Ahead), Demand Response, Long term Planning (asset management), Distribution Operations, and core ancillary services as required for balancing and reliability. This provided power system operators with the necessary tools and processes to operate the grid in a reliable manner under high renewable penetration.

  17. Systems Integration (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program

    2011-10-13

    The Systems Integration (SI) subprogram works closely with industry, universities, and the national laboratories to overcome technical barriers to the large-scale deployment of solar technologies. To support these goals, the subprogram invests primarily in four areas: grid integration, technology validation, solar resource assessment, and balance of system development.

  18. Systems Integration (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-10-01

    The Systems Integration (SI) subprogram works closely with industry, universities, and the national laboratories to overcome technical barriers to the large-scale deployment of solar technologies. To support these goals, the subprogram invests primarily in four areas: grid integration, technology validation, solar resource assessment, and balance of system development.

  19. Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study Solar Dataset (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hummon, M.

    2014-04-01

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory produced solar power production data for the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS) including "real time" 5-minute interval data, "four hour ahead forecast" 60-minute interval data, and "day-ahead forecast" 60-minute interval data for the year 2006. This presentation provides a brief overview of the three solar power datasets.

  20. MATERIAL BALANCE REPORT

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    F 742 (08-98) Previous editions are obsolete. MANDATORY DATA COLLECTION AUTHORIZED BY 10 CFR 30, 40, 50, 70, 75, 150. Public Laws 83-703, 93-438, 95-91. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AND U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION MATERIAL BALANCE REPORT 18 U.S.C. SECTION 1001; ACT OF JUNE 25, 1948; 62 STAT. 749; MAKES IT A CRIMINAL OFFENSE TO MAKE A WILLFULLY FALSE STATEMENT OR REPRESENTATION TO ANY DEPARTMENT OR AGENCY OF THE UNITED STATES AS TO ANY MATTER WITHIN ITS JURISDICTION. Printed with soy ink on

  1. Co2balance | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    balance Jump to: navigation, search Name: Co2balance Place: United Kingdom Sector: Carbon Product: Carbon offset provider based in Somerset, UK. References: Co2balance1 This...

  2. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  3. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    rely on an array of VG forecasts suited to different purposes. Some of the most common types of VG forecasts are defined below: 2 This report is available at no cost from the...

  4. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  5. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  6. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Capabilities

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Capabilities Best Practices Handbook Helps Industry Collect and Interpret Solar Resource Data Read about this new comprehensive resource for the solar industry. NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research staff provides expertise in renewable energy measurement and instrumentation. Major capabilities include solar resource measurement, instrument calibration, instrument characterization, solar monitoring training, and standards development and information dissemination. Solar Resource

  7. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  8. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  9. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  10. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  11. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  12. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Conference: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction

  13. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting May 1, 2012 - 3:19pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Second Quarter 2012 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. Since 2008, Argonne National Laboratory and INESC TEC (formerly INESC Porto) have conducted a research project to improve wind power forecasting and better use of forecasting in electricity markets. One of the main results from the project is ARGUS PRIMA (PRediction Intelligent

  14. Evaluating the Impact of Solar Generation on Balancing Requirements in Southern Nevada System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ma, Jian; Lu, Shuai; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2012-07-26

    Abstract—In this paper, the impacts of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation on balancing requirements including regulation and load following in the Southern Nevada balancing area are analyzed. The methodology is based on the “swinging door” algorithm and a probability box method developed by PNNL. The regulation and load following signals are mimicking the system’s scheduling and real-time dispatch processes. Load, solar PV generation and distributed PV generation (DG) data are used in the simulation. Different levels of solar PV generation and DG penetration profiles are used in the study. Sensitivity of the regulation requirements with respect to real-time solar PV generation forecast errors is analyzed.

  15. Radar channel balancing with commutation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doerry, Armin Walter

    2014-02-01

    When multiple channels are employed in a pulse-Doppler radar, achieving and maintaining balance between the channels is problematic. In some circumstances the channels may be commutated to achieve adequate balance. Commutation is the switching, trading, toggling, or multiplexing of the channels between signal paths. Commutation allows modulating the imbalance energy away from the balanced energy in Doppler, where it can be mitigated with filtering.

  16. ARM - Measurement - Surface energy balance

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy balance ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Measurement : Surface energy balance The energy balance at the earth's surface between the net radiation and the sensible and latent heat fluxes and ground heat flux. Categories Surface Properties Instruments The above measurement is considered scientifically relevant for the following instruments. Refer to the datastream (netcdf) file headers of each

  17. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  18. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  19. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  20. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  1. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  2. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  3. Review of Variable Generation Integration Charges

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Fink, S.; Buckley, M.; Rogers, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-03-01

    The growth of wind and solar generation in the United States, and the expectation of continued growth of these technologies, dictates that the future power system will be operated in a somewhat different manner because of increased variability and uncertainty. A small number of balancing authorities have attempted to determine an 'integration cost' to account for these changes to their current operating practices. Some balancing authorities directly charge wind and solar generators for integration charges, whereas others add integration charges to projected costs of wind and solar in integrated resource plans or in competitive solicitations for generation. This report reviews the balancing authorities that have calculated variable generation integration charges and broadly compares and contrasts the methodologies they used to determine their specific integration charges. The report also profiles each balancing authority and how they derived wind and solar integration charges.

  4. Libra: Scalable Load Balance Analysis

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2009-09-16

    Libra is a tool for scalable analysis of load balance data from all processes in a parallel application. Libra contains an instrumentation module that collects model data from parallel applications and a parallel compression mechanism that uses distributed wavelet transforms to gather load balance model data in a scalable fashion. Data is output to files, and these files can be viewed in a GUI tool by Libra users. The GUI tool associates particular load balancemore » data with regions for code, emabling users to view the load balance properties of distributed "slices" of their application code.« less

  5. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  6. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  7. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting | Department

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    of Energy 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement tools used in Earned Value. This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as estimate to complete (ETC) and estimate at completion (EAC)

  8. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    in Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain April 4, 2014 - 9:47am Addthis On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex

  9. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. PDF icon Report of the External Peer Review Panel More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  10. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  11. Mechanically balanced tapered plug valve

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Anaya, Jose R. (Coacalco, MX)

    1985-01-01

    The invention is a novel hermetic tapered plug valve having a spring-like resilient mechanism for providing axial balance to the plug and thereby prevent valve lock up.

  12. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  13. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Webmaster Use this form to send us your comments and questions, report problems with the site, or ask for help finding information on the site. Please enter your name and email address in the boxes provided, then type your message below. When you are finished, click "Send Message." NOTE: If you enter your e-mail address incorrectly, we will be unable to reply. Your name: Your email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home

  14. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  15. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  16. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements. WFIP Round...

  17. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other stakeholders better forecast when, where, and how much...

  18. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  19. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  20. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  1. Material Balance Report | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Material Balance Report Material Balance Report Form supports nuclear material control and accountability. PDF icon Material Balance Report More Documents & Publications DOE/NRC F 742 PHYSICAL INVENTORY LISTING DOE/NRC F 740M

  2. Review and Status of Wind Integration and Transmission in the United States. Key Issues and Lessons Learned

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Milligan, M.; Kirby, B.; Acker, T.; Ahlstrom, M.; Frew, B.; Goggin, M.; Lasher, W.; Marquis, M.; Osborn, D.

    2015-03-01

    The objective in electric power system operation is to use generation and transmission resources within organizational constraints and operational rules and regulations to reliably and costeffectively balance load and generation. To meet this objective, system operational practices have been created to accommodate the innate variability and uncertainty that comes from a variety of sources, such as uncertainty of demand forecasts, whether a specific generating unit will be available when called upon, the variability of demand from many different types of customers, and others. As more wind power is connected to the power system, operating experiences acquired during the past several years have generally confirmed the findings of wind integration studies: wind energy increases the level of variability and uncertainty that a system operator must manage.

  3. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  4. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  5. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  6. NREL to Help California Tackle Solar Energy Grid Integration...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The residential software modeling tool, called Building Energy Optimizer for California Existing Homes, will facilitate balanced integration of energy efficiency, demand response ...

  7. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  8. Current balancing for battery strings

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Galloway, James H. (New Baltimore, MI)

    1985-01-01

    A battery plant is described which features magnetic circuit means for balancing the electrical current flow through a pluraliircuitbattery strings which are connected electrically in parallel. The magnetic circuit means is associated with the battery strings such that the conductors carrying the electrical current flow through each of the battery strings pass through the magnetic circuit means in directions which cause the electromagnetic fields of at least one predetermined pair of the conductors to oppose each other. In an alternative embodiment, a low voltage converter is associated with each of the battery strings for balancing the electrical current flow through the battery strings.

  9. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  10. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  11. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  12. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illuminatio...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications PDF icon...

  13. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  14. Development of Energy Balances for the State of California

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Murtishaw, Scott; Price, Lynn; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Masanet, Eric; Worrell, Ernst; Sahtaye, Jayant

    2005-12-01

    Analysts assessing energy policies and energy modelers forecasting future trends need to have access to reliable and concise energy statistics. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory evaluated several sources of California energy data, primarily from the California Energy Commission and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, to develop the California Energy Balance Database (CALEB). This database manages highly disaggregated data on energy supply, transformation, and end-use consumption for each type of energy commodity from 1990 to the most recent year available (generally 2001) in the form of an energy balance, following the methodology used by the International Energy Agency. This report presents the data used for CALEB and provides information on how the various data sources were reconciled. CALEB offers the possibility of displaying all energy flows in numerous ways (e.g.,physical units, Btus, petajoules, different levels of aggregation), facilitating comparisons among the different types of energy commodities and different end-use sectors. In addition to displaying energy data, CALEB can also be used to calculate state-level energy-related carbon dioxide emissions using the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

  15. Alternative Fuels Data Center: Lifecycle Energy Balance

    Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Data Center [Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to Alternative Fuels Data Center: Lifecycle Energy Balance to someone by E-mail Share Alternative Fuels Data Center: Lifecycle Energy Balance on Facebook Tweet about Alternative Fuels Data Center: Lifecycle Energy Balance on Twitter Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: Lifecycle Energy Balance on Google Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: Lifecycle Energy Balance on Delicious Rank Alternative Fuels Data Center: Lifecycle Energy

  16. Burner balancing Salem Harbor Station

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sload, A.W.; Dube, R.J.

    1995-12-31

    The traditional method of burner balancing is first to determine the fuel distribution, then to measure the economizer outlet excess oxygen distribution and to adjust the burners accordingly. Fuel distribution is typically measured by clean and dirty air probing. Coal pipe flow can then be adjusted, if necessary, through the use of coal pipe orificing or by other means. Primary air flow must be adjusted to meet the design criteria of the burner. Once coal pipe flow is balanced to within the desired criteria, secondary air flow to individual burners can be changed by adjusting windbox dampers, burner registers, shrouds or other devices in the secondary air stream. This paper discusses problems encountered in measuring excess O{sub 2} at the economizer outlet. It is important to recognize that O{sub 2} measurements at the economizer outlet, by themselves, can be very misleading. If measurement problems are suspected or encountered, an alternate approach similar to that described should be considered. The alternate method is not only useful for burner balancing but also can be used to help in calibrating the plant excess O{sub 2} instruments and provide an on line means of cross-checking excess air measurements. Balanced burners operate closer to their design stoichiometry, providing better NO{sub x} reduction. For Salem Harbor Station, this means a significant saving in urea consumption.

  17. Dual shell pressure balanced vessel

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Fassbender, Alexander G. (West Richland, WA)

    1992-01-01

    A dual-wall pressure balanced vessel for processing high viscosity slurries at high temperatures and pressures having an outer pressure vessel and an inner vessel with an annular space between the vessels pressurized at a pressure slightly less than or equivalent to the pressure within the inner vessel.

  18. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  19. Hanford Site waste treatment/storage/disposal integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MCDONALD, K.M.

    1999-02-24

    In 1998 Waste Management Federal Services of Hanford, Inc. began the integration of all low-level waste, mixed waste, and TRU waste-generating activities across the Hanford site. With seven contractors, dozens of generating units, and hundreds of waste streams, integration was necessary to provide acute waste forecasting and planning for future treatment activities. This integration effort provides disposition maps that account for waste from generation, through processing, treatment and final waste disposal. The integration effort covers generating facilities from the present through the life-cycle, including transition and deactivation. The effort is patterned after the very successful DOE Complex EM Integration effort. Although still in the preliminary stages, the comprehensive onsite integration effort has already reaped benefits. These include identifying significant waste streams that had not been forecast, identifying opportunities for consolidating activities and services to accelerate schedule or save money; and identifying waste streams which currently have no path forward in the planning baseline. Consolidation/integration of planned activities may also provide opportunities for pollution prevention and/or avoidance of secondary waste generation. A workshop was held to review the waste disposition maps, and to identify opportunities with potential cost or schedule savings. Another workshop may be held to follow up on some of the long-term integration opportunities. A change to the Hanford waste forecast data call would help to align the Solid Waste Forecast with the new disposition maps.

  20. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  1. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  2. Balanced pressure gerotor fuel pump

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Raney, Michael Raymond; Maier, Eugen

    2004-08-03

    A gerotor pump for pressurizing gasoline fuel is capable of developing pressures up to 2.0 MPa with good mechanical and volumetric efficiency and satisfying the durability requirements for an automotive fuel pump. The pump has been designed with optimized clearances and by including features that promote the formation of lubricating films of pressurized fuel. Features of the improved pump include the use of a shadow port in the side plate opposite the outlet port to promote balancing of high fuel pressures on the opposite sides of the rotors. Inner and outer rotors have predetermined side clearances with the clearances of the outer rotor being greater than those of the inner rotor in order to promote fuel pressure balance on the sides of the outer rotor. Support of the inner rotor and a drive shaft on a single bushing with bearing sleeves maintains concentricity. Additional features are disclosed.

  3. Western Hemisphere Oil Products Balance

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Western Hemisphere Oil Products Balance Ramón Espinasa, Ph.D. / Lead Specialist July 2014 The Energy Innovation Center Energy Division 3 The views expressed by the author do not reflect the views of the Inter- American Development Bank, its Management, its Board of Executive Directors or its member Governments. DISCLAIMER www.iadb.org Copyright © 2014 Interamerican Development Bank. All rights reserved; This document may be freely reproduced for non-commercial purposes. 4 United States Oil

  4. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  5. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  6. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  7. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  8. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  9. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The Energy Department will present a live webinar titled "Solar Forecasting Metrics" on Thursday, February 13, from 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. During this ...

  10. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  11. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  12. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  13. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  14. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  15. Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Frequentist and Bayesian analyses (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological

  16. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  17. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  18. Overview and Meteorological Validation of the Wind Integration National Dataset toolkit

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Draxl, C.; Hodge, B. M.; Clifton, A.; McCaa, J.

    2015-04-13

    The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit described in this report fulfills these requirements, and constitutes a state-of-the-art national wind resource data set covering the contiguous United States from 2007 to 2013 for use in a variety of next-generation wind integration analyses and wind power planning. The toolkit is a wind resource data set, wind forecast data set, and wind power production and forecast data set derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model. WIND Toolkit data are available online for over 116,000 land-based and 10,000 offshore sites representing existing and potential wind facilities.

  19. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  20. Buildings-to-Grid Integration | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Buildings-to-Grid Integration Buildings-to-Grid Integration Integrating buildings and the grid increases energy efficiency, supports incorporation of renewable energy, and balances new loads, such as electric vehicles. Integrating buildings and the grid increases energy efficiency, supports incorporation of renewable energy, and balances new loads, such as electric vehicles. The U.S. Department of Energy's Building Technologies Office is coordinating strategies and activities with stakeholders

  1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOAA Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007 Forecasting Challenge While weather experiments in the heart of Tornado Alley typically focus on severe weather, the CLASIC and CHAPS programs will have different emphases. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Norman, Okla. will provide weather forecasting support to these two Department of Energy experiments based in the state. Forecasting support for meteorological research field programs usually

  2. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  3. Balancing oil and environment... responsibly.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weimer, Walter C.; Teske, Lisa

    2007-01-25

    Balancing Oil and Environment…Responsibly As the price of oil continues to skyrocket and global oil production nears the brink, pursuing unconventional oil supplies, such as oil shale, oil sands, heavy oils, and oils from biomass and coal has become increasingly attractive. Of particular significance to the American way is that our continent has significant quantities of these resources. Tapping into these new resources, however, requires cutting-edge technologies for identification, production, processing and environmental management. This job needs a super hero or two for a job of this size and proportion…

  4. Energy Balance Bowen Ratio System

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    0 Energy Balance Bowen Ratio System Estimates of surface energy fluxes are a primary product of the data collection systems at the ARM SGP CART site. Surface fluxes tell researchers a great deal about the effects of interactions between the sun's energy and Earth. Surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat can be estimated by measuring temperature and relative humidity gradients across a vertical distance. Sensible heat is what we feel coming from a warm sidewalk or a metal car door; it can be

  5. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ? We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ? The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ? At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ? At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ? At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  6. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  7. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  8. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (‘stochastic’) model with the weather forecast model (‘deterministic’) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  9. The United States Plutonium Balance, 1944-2009 | National Nuclear...

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Pits The United States Plutonium Balance, 1944-2009 The United States Plutonium Balance, 1944-2009 The United States has released an inventory of its plutonium balances...

  10. FY 2010 Annual Uncosted Balances Report | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Annual Uncosted Balances Reports FY 2010 Annual Uncosted Balances Report FY 2010 Annual Uncosted Balances Report This report represents an analysis of the Department's uncosted...

  11. National Assessment of Energy Storage for Grid Balancing and Arbitrage: Phase 1, WECC

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kintner-Meyer, Michael CW; Balducci, Patrick J.; Colella, Whitney G.; Elizondo, Marcelo A.; Jin, Chunlian; Nguyen, Tony B.; Viswanathan, Vilayanur V.; Zhang, Yu

    2012-06-01

    To examine the role that energy storage could play in mitigating the impacts of the stochastic variability of wind generation on regional grid operation, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) examined a hypothetical 2020 grid scenario in which additional wind generation capacity is built to meet renewable portfolio standard targets in the Western Interconnection. PNNL developed a stochastic model for estimating the balancing requirements using historical wind statistics and forecasting error, a detailed engineering model to analyze the dispatch of energy storage and fast-ramping generation devices for estimating size requirements of energy storage and generation systems for meeting new balancing requirements, and financial models for estimating the life-cycle cost of storage and generation systems in addressing the future balancing requirements for sub-regions in the Western Interconnection. Evaluated technologies include combustion turbines, sodium sulfur (Na-S) batteries, lithium ion batteries, pumped-hydro energy storage, compressed air energy storage, flywheels, redox flow batteries, and demand response. Distinct power and energy capacity requirements were estimated for each technology option, and battery size was optimized to minimize costs. Modeling results indicate that in a future power grid with high-penetration of renewables, the most cost competitive technologies for meeting balancing requirements include Na-S batteries and flywheels.

  12. Device for balancing parallel strings

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mashikian, Matthew S. (Storrs, CT)

    1985-01-01

    A battery plant is described which features magnetic circuit means in association with each of the battery strings in the battery plant for balancing the electrical current flow through the battery strings by equalizing the voltage across each of the battery strings. Each of the magnetic circuit means generally comprises means for sensing the electrical current flow through one of the battery strings, and a saturable reactor having a main winding connected electrically in series with the battery string, a bias winding connected to a source of alternating current and a control winding connected to a variable source of direct current controlled by the sensing means. Each of the battery strings is formed by a plurality of batteries connected electrically in series, and these battery strings are connected electrically in parallel across common bus conductors.

  13. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  14. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  15. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  16. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  17. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  18. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am ...

  19. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  20. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  1. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Department of Energy PDF icon Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  2. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  3. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting UCAR logo2.jpg The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research. APPROACH UCAR value chain.png The team will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through

  4. Building America BEopt-CA (Ex): A Tool for Optimal Integration...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Existing Homes), that aims to facilitate balanced integration of energy efficiency (EE), demand response (DR), and photovoltaics (PV) in the residential retrofit1 market. The...

  5. Building America BEopt-CA (Ex): A Tool for Optimal Integration...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Existing Homes), that aims to facilitate balanced integration of energy efficiency (EE), demandresponse (DR), and photovoltaics (PV) in the residential retrofit1 market. ...

  6. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - FESTIV Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    FESTIV Model Graph of real-time balance of electrical supply and demand. Real-time balance of electrical supply (generation) and demand (load). Graph of distribution of electrical supply and demand mismatch. Distribution of the mismatch between the electrical supply and demand (area control error, or ACE). Graph of real-time prices as determined by FESTIV. Real-time prices (locational marginal prices) as calculated by FESTIV. The Flexible Energy Scheduling Tool for Integrating Variable

  7. Work and Life Balance | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Balancing Work with Life Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window) Flex Ability: Balancing Work with Life Achieving work/life balance is a much-talked-about topic. According to GE Healthcare's Kelly Piacsek, "GE hires people for what's inside their head-what they know-and the specific hours you spend at work

  8. Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) Handbook

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cook, DR

    2011-02-14

    A Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) has been installed collocated with each deployed ECOR system at the Southern Great Plains (SGP), North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical Western Pacific (TWP), ARM Mobile Facility 1 (AMF1), and ARM Mobile Facility 2 (AMF2). The surface energy balance system consists of upwelling and downwelling solar and infrared radiometers within one net radiometer, a wetness sensor, and soil measurements. The SEBS measurements allow the comparison of ECOR sensible and latent heat fluxes with the energy balance determined from the SEBS and provide information on wetting of the sensors for data quality purposes.

  9. Balance Calibration – A Method for Assigning a Direct-Reading Uncertainty to an Electronic Balance.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mike Stears

    2010-07-01

    Paper Title: Balance Calibration – A method for assigning a direct-reading uncertainty to an electronic balance. Intended Audience: Those who calibrate or use electronic balances. Abstract: As a calibration facility, we provide on-site (at the customer’s location) calibrations of electronic balances for customers within our company. In our experience, most of our customers are not using their balance as a comparator, but simply putting an unknown quantity on the balance and reading the displayed mass value. Manufacturer’s specifications for balances typically include specifications such as readability, repeatability, linearity, and sensitivity temperature drift, but what does this all mean when the balance user simply reads the displayed mass value and accepts the reading as the true value? This paper discusses a method for assigning a direct-reading uncertainty to a balance based upon the observed calibration data and the environment where the balance is being used. The method requires input from the customer regarding the environment where the balance is used and encourages discussion with the customer regarding sources of uncertainty and possible means for improvement; the calibration process becomes an educational opportunity for the balance user as well as calibration personnel. This paper will cover the uncertainty analysis applied to the calibration weights used for the field calibration of balances; the uncertainty is calculated over the range of environmental conditions typically encountered in the field and the resulting range of air density. The temperature stability in the area of the balance is discussed with the customer and the temperature range over which the balance calibration is valid is decided upon; the decision is based upon the uncertainty needs of the customer and the desired rigor in monitoring by the customer. Once the environmental limitations are decided, the calibration is performed and the measurement data is entered into a custom spreadsheet. The spreadsheet uses measurement results, along with the manufacturer’s specifications, to assign a direct-read measurement uncertainty to the balance. The fact that the assigned uncertainty is a best-case uncertainty is discussed with the customer; the assigned uncertainty contains no allowance for contributions associated with the unknown weighing sample, such as density, static charges, magnetism, etc. The attendee will learn uncertainty considerations associated with balance calibrations along with one method for assigning an uncertainty to a balance used for non-comparison measurements.

  10. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  11. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon

  12. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data Center (RReDC) Provides information about biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind energy resources. Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center Provides irradiance and meteorological data from stations throughout the United States. Baseline Measurement System (BMS) Provides live solar radiation data from approximately 70

  13. The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

    2012-12-31

    ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most wind plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational setting. It shall be demonstrated that when used properly, the real-time offsite measurements materially improve wind ramp capture and prediction statistics, when compared to traditional wind forecasting techniques and to a simple persistence model.

  14. Background-free balanced optical cross correlator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Nejadmalayeri, Amir Hossein; Kaertner, Franz X

    2014-12-23

    A balanced optical cross correlator includes an optical waveguide, a first photodiode including a first n-type semiconductor and a first p-type semiconductor positioned about the optical waveguide on a first side of the optical waveguide's point of symmetry, and a second photodiode including a second n-type semiconductor and a second p-type semiconductor positioned about the optical waveguide on a second side of the optical waveguide's point of symmetry. A balanced receiver including first and second inputs is configured to produce an output current or voltage that reflects a difference in currents or voltages, originating from the first and the second photodiodes of the balanced cross correlator and fed to the first input and to the second input of the balanced receiver.

  15. Extreme Balance of System Hardware Cost Reduction

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On September 1, 2011, DOE announced $42.4 million in funding over three years for the Extreme Balance of System Hardware Cost Reduction (BOS-X) funding opportunity. Part of the SunShot Systems...

  16. FY 2007 Report on Uncosted Balances

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Report on Uncosted Balances For Fiscal Year Ended September 30,2007 August 2008 Prepared by: Office of the Chief Financial Officer TABLE OF CONTENTS Purpose.. . . . : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . .. . .. . . . . . . . , . . , . , , . . . . , Executive Summary ... . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . .... .. .... .... .. Threshold Analysis - Approach and Background

  17. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  18. Annual Uncosted Balances Reports | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Annual Uncosted Balances Reports Annual Uncosted Balances Reports Section 2307 of the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (42 U.S.C. 13526) requires the Department of Energy (Department or DOE) to submit an annual report to Congress on the state of the Department's uncosted obligations. The section requires the report to identify the uncosted obligations at the end of the previous fiscal year (FY), describe the purpose of those funds, and describe the effect the information had on the annual budget

  19. Balanced Scorecard Program | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Balanced Scorecard Program Balanced Scorecard Program I. Introduction The BSC is a conceptual framework for translating an organization's vision into a set of performance indicators distributed among four perspectives: Financial, Customer, Internal Business Processes, and Learning and Growth. Indicators are maintained to measure an organization's progress toward achieving its vision; other indicators are maintained to measure the long term drivers of success. Through the BSC, an organization

  20. FY 2011 Annual Uncosted Balances Report | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Uncosted Balances Reports » FY 2011 Annual Uncosted Balances Report FY 2011 Annual Uncosted Balances Report This report represents an analysis of the Department's uncosted balances for FY 2011. In FY 2009, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Recovery Act) provided the Department an additional $36.7 billion of funding. The FY 2011 uncosted balances associated with Recovery Act funding are separately presented but are not included in the additional analysis of uncosted balances in

  1. Integrated Efficiency Test for Pyrochemical Fuel Cycles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, S.X.; Vaden, D.; Westphal, B.R.; Fredrickson, G.L.; Benedict, R.W.; Johnson, T.A.

    2007-07-01

    An integrated efficiency test was conducted with sodium bonded, spent EBR-II drive fuel elements. The major equipment involved in the test were the element chopper, Mk-IV electro-refiner, cathode processor, and casting furnace. Four electrorefining batches (containing 54.4 kg heavy metal) were processed under the fixed operating parameters that have been developed for this equipment based on over a decade's worth of processing experience. A mass balance across this equipment was performed. Actinide dissolution and recovery efficiencies were established based on the mass balance and chemical analytical results of various samples taken from process streams during the integrated efficiency test. (authors)

  2. Integrated Efficiency Test for Pyrochemical Fuel Cycles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. X. Li; D. Vaden; R. W. Benedict; T. A. Johnson; B. R. Westphal; Guy L. Frederickson

    2007-09-01

    An integrated efficiency test was conducted with sodium bonded, spent EBR-II drive fuel elements. The major equipment involved in the test were the element chopper, Mk-IV electrorefiner, cathode processor, and casting furnace. Four electrorefining batches (containing 54.4 kg heavy metal) were processes under the fixed operating parameters that have been developed for this equipment based on over a decade’s worth of processing experience. A mass balance across this equipment was performed. Actinide dissolution and recovery efficiencies were established based on the mass balance and chemical analytical results of various samples taken from process streams during the integrated efficiency test.

  3. Grid Integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2008-09-01

    Summarizes the goals and activities of the DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program efforts within its grid integration subprogram.

  4. Acquisition Guide Chapter 1.3 - Balanced Scorecard Assessment...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    3 - Balanced Scorecard Assessment Program - (March 2004) Acquisition Guide Chapter 1.3 - Balanced Scorecard Assessment Program - (March 2004) Acquisition Guide...

  5. Microsoft Word - Energy balancing rate settlement signals commitment...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    defines charges for balancing services, or generation inputs, that maintain a constant balance of the energy produced and energy consumed. "BPA and the parties involved in this...

  6. Acquisition Guide Chapter 1.2 - Balanced Scorecard Performance...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    2 - Balanced Scorecard Performance Assessment Program - (March 2004) Acquisition Guide Chapter 1.2 - Balanced Scorecard Performance Assessment Program - (March 2004) This chapter ...

  7. IN OTHER CATEGORIES; MACHINERY; MASS BALANCE; MECHANICAL VIBRATIONS...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    world Bracher, B. 42 ENGINEERING NOT INCLUDED IN OTHER CATEGORIES; MACHINERY; MASS BALANCE; MECHANICAL VIBRATIONS; MAINTENANCE; REPAIR Field balancing can achieve significant...

  8. Steam System Balancing and Tuning for Multifamily Residential...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Steam System Balancing and Tuning for Multifamily Residential Buildings Chicago, Illinois PROJECT INFORMATION Project Name: Steam System Balancing and Tuning for Multifamily ...

  9. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  10. Trends and balances: 1985-1990

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1985-01-01

    This is the seventh edition of Trends and Balances to be presented to the staff of Oak Ridge National (ORNL) and other interested parties. Each year at the end of the planning cycle the Laboratory publishes its official planning document, the Institutional Plan. Trends and Balances is brought out as a condensation of that more formal document and is intended to provide a reference to the kinds of plans that have occupied senior laboratory management over the past year. An institution as large as ORNL changes slowly, so some of the information in this document overlaps that contained in the previous edition of Trends and Balances. Much, however, is different. A new section, for example, describes what senior Laboratory management feels are five new directions for science and technology at ORNL. This document is intended to provide new insights into the programs and structure of the Laboratory.

  11. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Value of Improved Short- Term Wind Power Forecasting B.-M. Hodge and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Sharp Sharply Focused, LLC M. Margulis and D. Mcreavy Lockheed Martin Technical Report NREL/TP-5D00-63175 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

  12. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  13. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  14. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  15. Two-Way Integration of WRF and CCSM for Regional Climate Simulations

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Two-Way Integration of WRF and CCSM for Regional Climate Simulations Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Two-Way Integration of WRF and CCSM for Regional Climate Simulations Under the support of the DOE award DE-SC0004670, we have successfully developed an integrated climate modeling system by nesting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model within the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the ensuing new generation Community Earth System

  16. Two-Way Integration of WRF and CCSM for Regional Climate Simulations

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Technical Report: Two-Way Integration of WRF and CCSM for Regional Climate Simulations Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Two-Way Integration of WRF and CCSM for Regional Climate Simulations Under the support of the DOE award DE-SC0004670, we have successfully developed an integrated climate modeling system by nesting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model within the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and

  17. Acquisition Guide Chapter 1.3 - Balanced Scorecard Assessment Program -

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    (March 2004) | Department of Energy 3 - Balanced Scorecard Assessment Program - (March 2004) Acquisition Guide Chapter 1.3 - Balanced Scorecard Assessment Program - (March 2004) Acquisition Guide -------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------Chapter 1.2 (March 2004) Balanced Scorecard Performance Assessment Program [This guidance was previously included in Acquisition Letter 98-10] Guiding Principle The Balanced Scorecard program ensures that there is an

  18. Procurement Integrity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ------------------------------Chapter 3.1 (Dec 2015) 1 Procurement Integrity [Reference: 41 U.S.C. 423, FAR 3.104, DEAR 903.104] Overview This section discusses the requirements of the Procurement Integrity Act and its impact on Federal employees. Background The Department of Energy (DOE), like most federal agencies, purchases many products and services from the private sector. To preserve the integrity of the Federal procurement process and assure fair treatment of bidders, offerors and

  19. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  20. Insolation integrator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dougherty, John J. (Norristown, PA); Rudge, George T. (Lansdale, PA)

    1980-01-01

    An electric signal representative of the rate of insolation is integrated to determine if it is adequate for operation of a solar energy collection system.

  1. Dynamic Analysis of Wind Turbine Planetary Gears Using an Extended Harmonic Balance Approach: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Guo, Y.; Keller, J.; Parker, R. G.

    2012-06-01

    The dynamics of wind turbine planetary gears with gravity effects are investigated using an extended harmonic balance method that extends established harmonic balance formulations to include simultaneous internal and external excitations. The extended harmonic balance method with arc-length continuation and Floquet theory is applied to a lumped-parameter planetary gear model including gravity, fluctuating mesh stiffness, bearing clearance, and nonlinear tooth contact to obtain the planetary gear dynamic response. The calculated responses compare well with time domain integrated mathematical models and experimental results. Gravity is a fundamental vibration source in wind turbine planetary gears and plays an important role in system dynamics, causing hardening effects induced by tooth wedging and bearing-raceway contacts. Bearing clearance significantly reduces the lowest resonant frequencies of translational modes. Gravity and bearing clearance together lowers the speed at which tooth wedging occurs lower than the resonant frequency.

  2. FY 2012 Annual Uncosted Balances Report | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Annual Uncosted Balances Reports » FY 2012 Annual Uncosted Balances Report FY 2012 Annual Uncosted Balances Report This report presents the results of the Department's annual analysis of uncosted balances for FY 2012. In FY 2009, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Recovery Act) provided the Department an additional $36.7 billion of funding. The FY 2012 uncosted balances associated with Recovery Act funding are separately presented but are not included in the additional analysis

  3. An unconventional method for load balancing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deng, Y.; McCoy, R.A.; Marr, R.B.

    1995-12-01

    A new method of load balancing is introduced based on the idea of dynamically relocating virtual processes corresponding to computations on an abstract system with a larger number of processors. The algorithm introduced preserves the locality of nearest neighbor interactions and has been tested on simulated data and a molecular dynamics code.

  4. An unconventional method for load balancing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deng, Y.; McCoy, R.A.; Marr, R.B.; Peierls, R.F.

    1995-08-01

    A new method of load balancing is introduced based on the idea of dynamically relocating virtual processes corresponding to computations on an abstract system with a large number of processors. The algorithm introduced preserves the locality of nearest neighbor interactions and has been tested on simulated data and a molecular dynamics code.

  5. Energy balance of ENDF/B-VI

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MacFarlane, R.E.

    1994-06-01

    ENDF/B-VI through Release 2 has been tested for neutron-photon energy balance using the Heater module of the NJOY nuclear data procesing system. The situation is much improved over ENDF/B-V, but there are still a number of maerials that show problems.

  6. Torque-balanced vibrationless rotary coupling

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Miller, Donald M. (Sunnyside, WA)

    1980-01-01

    This disclosure describes a torque-balanced vibrationless rotary coupling for transmitting rotary motion without unwanted vibration into the spindle of a machine tool. A drive member drives a driven member using flexible connecting loops which are connected tangentially and at diametrically opposite connecting points through a free floating ring.

  7. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  8. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  9. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  10. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Applications | Department of Energy Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications PDF icon energysavingsforecast14.pdf More Documents & Publications Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications - Report LED ADOPTION REPORT Solid-State Lighting R&D

  11. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  12. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  13. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  14. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  15. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  16. Isorropia Partitioning and Load Balancing Package

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-09-01

    Isorropia is a partitioning and load balancing package which interfaces with the Zoltan library. Isorropia can accept input objects such as matrices and matrix-graphs, and repartition/redistribute them into a better data distribution on parallel computers. Isorropia is primarily an interface package, utilizing graph and hypergraph partitioning algorithms that are in the Zoltan library which is a third-party library to Tilinos.

  17. Balanced pressure techniques applied to geothermal drilling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dareing, D.W.

    1981-08-01

    The objective of the study is to evaluate balanced pressure drilling techniques for use in combating lost circulation in geothermal drilling. Drilling techniques evaluated are: aerated drilling mud, parasite tubing, concentric drill pipe, jet sub, and low density fluids. Based on the present state of the art of balanced pressure drilling techniques, drilling with aerated water has the best overall balance of performance, risk, availability, and cost. Aerated water with a 19:1 free air/water ratio reduce maximum pressure unbalance between wellbore and formation pressures from 1000 psi to 50 psi. This pressure unbalance is within acceptable operating limits; however, air pockets could form and cause pressure surges in the mud system due to high percent of air. Low density fluids used with parasite tubing has the greatest potential for combating lost circulation in geothermal drilling, when performance only is considered. The top portion of the hole would be aerated through the parasite tube at a 10:1 free air/mud ratio and the low density mud could be designed so that its pressure gradient exactly matches the formation pore pressure gradient. The main problem with this system at present is the high cost of ceramic beads needed to produce low density muds.

  18. Balancing Hydronic Systems in Multifamily Buildings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ruch, Russell; Ludwig, Peter; Maurer, Tessa

    2014-07-01

    In multifamily hydronic systems, temperature imbalance may be caused by undersized piping, improperly adjusted balancing valves, inefficient water temperature and flow levels, and owner/occupant interaction with the boilers, distribution, and controls. The imbalance leads to tenant discomfort, higher energy use intensity, and inefficient building operation. This research, conducted by Building America team Partnership for Advanced Residential Retrofit, explores cost-effective distribution upgrades and balancing measures in multifamily hydronic systems, providing a resource to contractors, auditors, and building owners on best practices to improve tenant comfort and lower operating costs. The team surveyed existing knowledge on cost-effective retrofits for optimizing distribution in typical multifamily hydronic systems, with the aim of identifying common situations and solutions, and then conducted case studies on two Chicago area buildings with known balancing issues in order to quantify the extent of temperature imbalance. At one of these buildings a booster pump was installed on a loop to an underheated wing of the building. This study found that unit temperature in a multifamily hydronic building can vary as much as 61°F, particularly if windows are opened or tenants use intermittent supplemental heating sources like oven ranges. Average temperature spread at the building as a result of this retrofit decreased from 22.1°F to 15.5°F.

  19. Balancing Hydronic Systems in Multifamily Buildings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ruch, R.; Ludwig, P.; Maurer, T.

    2014-07-01

    In multifamily hydronic systems, temperature imbalance may be caused by undersized piping, improperly adjusted balancing valves, inefficient water temperature and flow levels, and owner/occupant interaction with the boilers, distribution and controls. The effects of imbalance include tenant discomfort, higher energy use intensity and inefficient building operation. This paper explores cost-effective distribution upgrades and balancing measures in multifamily hydronic systems, providing a resource to contractors, auditors, and building owners on best practices to improve tenant comfort and lower operating costs. The research was conducted by The Partnership for Advanced Residential Retrofit (PARR) in conjunction with Elevate Energy. The team surveyed existing knowledge on cost-effective retrofits for optimizing distribution in typical multifamily hydronic systems, with the aim of identifying common situations and solutions, and then conducted case studies on two Chicago area buildings with known balancing issues in order to quantify the extent of temperature imbalance. At one of these buildings a booster pump was installed on a loop to an underheated wing of the building. This study found that unit temperature in a multifamily hydronic building can vary as much as 61 degrees F, particularly if windows are opened or tenants use intermittent supplemental heating sources like oven ranges. Average temperature spread at the building as a result of this retrofit decreased from 22.1 degrees F to 15.5 degrees F.

  20. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... The IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center and its partners will integrate big data ... Similar to the recently demonstrated IBM Watson computer system, the proposed Watt-sun ...

  1. Wind energy and power system operations: a review of wind integration studies to date

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cesaro, Jennifer de; Porter, Kevin; Milligan, Michael

    2009-12-15

    Wind integration will not be accomplished successfully by doing ''more of the same.'' It will require significant changes in grid planning and operations, continued technical evolution in the design and operation of wind turbines, further adoption and implementation of wind forecasting in the control room, and incorporation of market and policy initiatives to encourage more flexible generation. (author)

  2. Balance-of-System Equipment Required for Renewable Energy Systems...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Balance-of-System Equipment Required for Renewable Energy Systems Balance-of-System Equipment Required for Renewable Energy Systems July 2, 2012 - 8:21pm Addthis Both...

  3. Flat-Plate Photovoltaic Balance of System Basics | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Flat-Plate Photovoltaic Balance of System Basics Flat-Plate Photovoltaic Balance of System Basics August 20, 2013 - 4:29pm Addthis Complete photovoltaic (PV) energy systems are ...

  4. Building America Technology Solutions for New and Existing Homes: Balancing

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Hydronic Systems in Multifamily Buildings, Chicago, Illinois (Fact Sheet) | Department of Energy Balancing Hydronic Systems in Multifamily Buildings, Chicago, Illinois (Fact Sheet) Building America Technology Solutions for New and Existing Homes: Balancing Hydronic Systems in Multifamily Buildings, Chicago, Illinois (Fact Sheet) In multifamily building hydronic systems, temperature imbalance may be caused by undersized piping, improperly adjusted balancing valves, inefficient water

  5. Integrated Microinverters for Enabling True ACPV Modules | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Integrated Microinverters for Enabling True ACPV Modules Integrated Microinverters for Enabling True ACPV Modules solarbridge logo2.jpg This project, led by SolarBridge Technologies, is developing an innovative alternating-current photovoltaic (ACPV) module that consists of an integrated "Universal PV-Dock" and a high-reliability, low-cost, high-efficiency microinverter to substantially reduce balance of system (BOS) costs in residential and commercial PV systems. In 2011,

  6. USE OF AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL TO FORECAST DISSOLUTION EFFECTIVENESS, SAFETY IMPACTS, AND DOWNSTREAM PROCESSABILITY FROM OXALIC ACID AIDED SLUDGE REMOVAL IN SAVANNAH RIVER SITE HIGH LEVEL WASTE TANKS 1-15

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KETUSKY, EDWARD

    2005-10-31

    This thesis details a graduate research effort written to fulfill the Magister of Technologiae in Chemical Engineering requirements at the University of South Africa. The research evaluates the ability of equilibrium based software to forecast dissolution, evaluate safety impacts, and determine downstream processability changes associated with using oxalic acid solutions to dissolve sludge heels in Savannah River Site High Level Waste (HLW) Tanks 1-15. First, a dissolution model is constructed and validated. Coupled with a model, a material balance determines the fate of hypothetical worst-case sludge in the treatment and neutralization tanks during each chemical adjustment. Although sludge is dissolved, after neutralization more is created within HLW. An energy balance determines overpressurization and overheating to be unlikely. Corrosion induced hydrogen may overwhelm the purge ventilation. Limiting the heel volume treated/acid added and processing the solids through vitrification is preferred and should not significantly increase the number of glass canisters.

  7. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy .5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting January 8, 2015 - 12:00pm Addthis The Energy Department today announced $2.5 million for a new project to research the atmospheric processes that generate wind in mountain-valley regions. This in-depth research, conducted by Vaisala of Louisville, Colorado, will be used to improve the wind industry's weather models for short-term wind forecasts, especially for

  8. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar forecasting accuracy by as much

  9. Voltage balanced multilevel voltage source converter system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Peng, Fang Zheng (Oak Ridge, TN); Lai, Jih-Sheng (Knoxville, TN)

    1997-01-01

    A voltage balanced multilevel converter for high power AC applications such as adjustable speed motor drives and back-to-back DC intertie of adjacent power systems. This converter provides a multilevel rectifier, a multilevel inverter, and a DC link between the rectifier and the inverter allowing voltage balancing between each of the voltage levels within the multilevel converter. The rectifier is equipped with at least one phase leg and a source input node for each of the phases. The rectifier is further equipped with a plurality of rectifier DC output nodes. The inverter is equipped with at least one phase leg and a load output node for each of the phases. The inverter is further equipped with a plurality of inverter DC input nodes. The DC link is equipped with a plurality of rectifier charging means and a plurality of inverter discharging means. The plurality of rectifier charging means are connected in series with one of the rectifier charging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of rectifier DC output nodes. The plurality of inverter discharging means are connected in series with one of the inverter discharging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of inverter DC input nodes. Each of said rectifier DC output nodes are individually electrically connected to the respective inverter DC input nodes. By this means, each of the rectifier DC output nodes and each of the inverter DC input nodes are voltage balanced by the respective charging and discharging of the rectifier charging means and the inverter discharging means.

  10. Voltage balanced multilevel voltage source converter system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Peng, F.Z.; Lai, J.S.

    1997-07-01

    Disclosed is a voltage balanced multilevel converter for high power AC applications such as adjustable speed motor drives and back-to-back DC intertie of adjacent power systems. This converter provides a multilevel rectifier, a multilevel inverter, and a DC link between the rectifier and the inverter allowing voltage balancing between each of the voltage levels within the multilevel converter. The rectifier is equipped with at least one phase leg and a source input node for each of the phases. The rectifier is further equipped with a plurality of rectifier DC output nodes. The inverter is equipped with at least one phase leg and a load output node for each of the phases. The inverter is further equipped with a plurality of inverter DC input nodes. The DC link is equipped with a plurality of rectifier charging means and a plurality of inverter discharging means. The plurality of rectifier charging means are connected in series with one of the rectifier charging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of rectifier DC output nodes. The plurality of inverter discharging means are connected in series with one of the inverter discharging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of inverter DC input nodes. Each of said rectifier DC output nodes are individually electrically connected to the respective inverter DC input nodes. By this means, each of the rectifier DC output nodes and each of the inverter DC input nodes are voltage balanced by the respective charging and discharging of the rectifier charging means and the inverter discharging means. 15 figs.

  11. Heat Balance Study for Submersible Mixer Pump

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, S.Y.

    2003-07-21

    A transient heat balance model was developed to assess the impact of a Submersible Mixer Pump (SMP) on waste temperature during the process of waste mixing and removal for the Type-I SRS tanks. The model results will be mainly used to determine the SMP design impacts on the waste tank temperature during operations and to develop a specification for a new SMP design to replace existing long-shaft mixer pumps used during waste removal. The model will also be used to provide input to the operation planning. This planning will be used as input to pump run duration in order to maintain temperature requirements within the tank during SMP operation.

  12. Reflective optical imaging system with balanced distortion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chapman, Henry N.; Hudyma, Russell M.; Shafer, David R.; Sweeney, Donald W.

    1999-01-01

    An optical system compatible with short wavelength (extreme ultraviolet) An optical system compatible with short wavelength (extreme ultraviolet) radiation comprising four reflective elements for projecting a mask image onto a substrate. The four optical elements comprise, in order from object to image, convex, concave, convex and concave mirrors. The optical system is particularly suited for step and scan lithography methods. The invention enables the use of larger slit dimensions associated with ring field scanning optics, improves wafer throughput and allows higher semiconductor device density. The inventive optical system is characterized by reduced dynamic distortion because the static distortion is balanced across the slit width.

  13. Reflective optical imaging systems with balanced distortion

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hudyma, Russell M. (San Ramon, CA)

    2001-01-01

    Optical systems compatible with extreme ultraviolet radiation comprising four reflective elements for projecting a mask image onto a substrate are described. The four optical elements comprise, in order from object to image, convex, concave, convex and concave mirrors. The optical systems are particularly suited for step and scan lithography methods. The invention enables the use of larger slit dimensions associated with ring field scanning optics, improves wafer throughput, and allows higher semiconductor device density. The inventive optical systems are characterized by reduced dynamic distortion because the static distortion is balanced across the slit width.

  14. Rotary engine cooling system with flow balancing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, C.

    1987-05-12

    This patent describes a rotary internal combustion engine having a trochoid rotor housing section and having a group of cooling passages extending through a top-dead-center (TDC) region. The engine is characterized by: at least one passage of the group following a curved path which extends through a first hotter portion of the TDC region, by at least one further passage of the group following a substantially uncurved path through a second cooler portion of the TDC region, and by a fluid restriction for restricting fluid flow through the at least one further passage to balance coolant flow between the passages.

  15. Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Draxl, Caroline; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2015-07-14

    A webinar about the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit was presented by Bri-Mathias Hodge and Caroline Draxl on July 14, 2015. It was hosted by the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy. The toolkit is a grid integration data set that contains meteorological and power data at a 5-minute resolution across the continental United States for 7 years and hourly power forecasts.

  16. Balanced link for dry coal extrusion pumps

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bebejian, Maral

    2013-10-22

    A link which defines a link body that includes a multiple of link plates integral with a link body, the link body disposed at least partially forward of a forward edge of the multiple of link plates.

  17. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  18. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  19. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  20. NOAA Teams Up with Department of Energy & Industry to Improve Wind Forecasts

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The growth of wind-generated power in the United States  is creating greater demand for improved wind forecasts. To address this need, the Department of Energy is working with NOAA and industry on...

  1. Effect of short-term material balances on the projected uranium measurement uncertainties for the gas centrifuge enrichment plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Younkin, J.M.; Rushton, J.E.

    1980-02-05

    A program is under way to design an effective International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards system that could be applied to the Portsmouth Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plant (GCEP). This system would integrate nuclear material accountability with containment and surveillance. Uncertainties in material balances due to errors in the measurements of the declared uranium streams have been projected on a yearly basis for GCEP under such a system in a previous study. Because of the large uranium flows, the projected balance uncertainties were, in some cases, greater than the IAEA goal quantity of 75 kg of U-235 contained in low-enriched uranium. Therefore, it was decided to investigate the benefits of material balance periods of less than a year in order to improve the sensitivity and timeliness of the nuclear material accountability system. An analysis has been made of projected uranium measurement uncertainties for various short-term material balance periods. To simplify this analysis, only a material balance around the process area is considered and only the major UF/sub 6/ stream measurements are included. That is, storage areas are not considered and uranium waste streams are ignored. It is also assumed that variations in the cascade inventory are negligible compared to other terms in the balance so that the results obtained in this study are independent of the absolute cascade inventory. This study is intended to provide information that will serve as the basis for the future design of a dynamic materials accounting component of the IAEA safeguards system for GCEP.

  2. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  3. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S. DOE Office

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    of Science (SC) Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear Science Advisory Committee (NSAC) Community Resources Contact Information Nuclear Physics U.S. Department of Energy SC-26/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 P: (301) 903-3613 F: (301) 903-3833 E: Email Us More Information » 05.01.14 Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron

  4. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  5. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  6. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  7. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  8. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and More | Department of Energy Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision, and More DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision, and More February 12, 2014 - 7:38pm Addthis EERE offers webinars to the public on a range of subjects, from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies to training for the clean energy workforce. Webinars are free; however, advanced registration is typically required. You can also watch archived webinars

  9. Refinery Integration

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Mary Biddy Sue Jones NREL PNNL This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Refinery Integration 4.1.1.31 NREL 4.1.1.51 PNNL Goal Statement GOALS: Model bio-intermediates insertion points to better define costs & ID opportunities, technical risks, information gaps, research needs Publish results Review with stakeholders 2 Leveraging existing refining infrastructure

  10. Electrical Power Grid Delivery Dynamic Analysis: Using Prime Mover Engines to Balance Dynamic Wind Turbine Output

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diana K. Grauer; Michael E. Reed

    2011-11-01

    This paper presents an investigation into integrated wind + combustion engine high penetration electrical generation systems. Renewable generation systems are now a reality of electrical transmission. Unfortunately, many of these renewable energy supplies are stochastic and highly dynamic. Conversely, the existing national grid has been designed for steady state operation. The research team has developed an algorithm to investigate the feasibility and relative capability of a reciprocating internal combustion engine to directly integrate with wind generation in a tightly coupled Hybrid Energy System. Utilizing the Idaho National Laboratory developed Phoenix Model Integration Platform, the research team has coupled demand data with wind turbine generation data and the Aspen Custom Modeler reciprocating engine electrical generator model to investigate the capability of reciprocating engine electrical generation to balance stochastic renewable energy.

  11. Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan

    2014-09-12

    Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

  12. NREL: Energy Systems Integration - American Vanadium

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    American Vanadium Photo of a large cube-shaped energy storage system labeled "CellCube." American Vanadium is leveraging NREL's energy systems integration capabilities to test a new system for megawatt-level energy storage. Photo from American Vanadium NREL is partnering with energy storage company American Vanadium to evaluate and demonstrate the CellCube vanadium redox flow energy storage system across grid-connected and off-grid applications involving long-term storage and balancing

  13. Control and Size Energy Storage for Managing Energy balance of Variable Generation Resources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ke, Xinda; Lu, Ning; Jin, Chunlian

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents control algorithms and sizing strategies for using energy storage to manage energy balance for variable generation resources. The control objective is to minimize the hourly generation imbalance between the actual and the scheduled generation of the wind farm. Three control algorithms are compared: tracking power imbalance, post-compensation, and pre-compensation. Measurement data from a wind farm located in South-central Washington State are used in the study. The results show that tracking power imbalance yields the best performance by keeping the hourly energy imbalances zero. However, the energy storage system (ESS) will be significantly oversized. Post-compensation reduces power rating of the ESS but the hourly imbalance may not be kept as zero when large and long-lasting energy imbalances occur. A linear regression forecasting algorithm is developed for the pre-compensation algorithm to pre-charge or pre-discharge the ESS based on predicted energy imbalances. The performance comparison shows that the pre-compensation method significantly reduces the size of the ESS while maintaining satisfactory performance.

  14. Gated integrator with signal baseline subtraction

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wang, X.

    1996-12-17

    An ultrafast, high precision gated integrator includes an opamp having differential inputs. A signal to be integrated is applied to one of the differential inputs through a first input network, and a signal indicative of the DC offset component of the signal to be integrated is applied to the other of the differential inputs through a second input network. A pair of electronic switches in the first and second input networks define an integrating period when they are closed. The first and second input networks are substantially symmetrically constructed of matched components so that error components introduced by the electronic switches appear symmetrically in both input circuits and, hence, are nullified by the common mode rejection of the integrating opamp. The signal indicative of the DC offset component is provided by a sample and hold circuit actuated as the integrating period begins. The symmetrical configuration of the integrating circuit improves accuracy and speed by balancing out common mode errors, by permitting the use of high speed switching elements and high speed opamps and by permitting the use of a small integrating time constant. The sample and hold circuit substantially eliminates the error caused by the input signal baseline offset during a single integrating window. 5 figs.

  15. Gated integrator with signal baseline subtraction

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wang, Xucheng (Lisle, IL)

    1996-01-01

    An ultrafast, high precision gated integrator includes an opamp having differential inputs. A signal to be integrated is applied to one of the differential inputs through a first input network, and a signal indicative of the DC offset component of the signal to be integrated is applied to the other of the differential inputs through a second input network. A pair of electronic switches in the first and second input networks define an integrating period when they are closed. The first and second input networks are substantially symmetrically constructed of matched components so that error components introduced by the electronic switches appear symmetrically in both input circuits and, hence, are nullified by the common mode rejection of the integrating opamp. The signal indicative of the DC offset component is provided by a sample and hold circuit actuated as the integrating period begins. The symmetrical configuration of the integrating circuit improves accuracy and speed by balancing out common mode errors, by permitting the use of high speed switching elements and high speed opamps and by permitting the use of a small integrating time constant. The sample and hold circuit substantially eliminates the error caused by the input signal baseline offset during a single integrating window.

  16. NEMS integrating module documentation report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-14

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a computer modeling system that produces a general equilibrium solution for energy supply and demand in the US energy markets. The model achieves a supply and demand balance in the end-use demand regions, defined as the nine Census Divisions, by solving for the prices of each energy type such that the quantities producers are willing to supply equal the quantities consumers wish to consume. The system reflects market economics, industry structure, and energy policies and regulations that influence market behavior. The NEMS Integrating Module is the central integrating component of a complex modeling system. As such, a thorough understanding of its role in the modeling process can only be achieved by placing it in the proper context with respect to the other modules. To that end, this document provides an overview of the complete NEMS model, and includes brief descriptions of the modules with which the Integrating Module interacts. The emphasis and focus, however, is on the structure and function of the Integrating Module of NEMS.

  17. Horizontal film balance having wide range and high sensitivity

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Abraham, B.M.; Miyano, K.; Ketterson, J.B.

    1981-03-05

    A thin-film, horizontal balance instrument is provided for measuring surface tension (surface energy) of thin films suspended on a liquid substrate. The balance includes a support bearing and an optical feedback arrangement for wide-range, high sensitivity measurements. The force on the instrument is balanced by an electromagnet, the current through the magnet providing a measure of the force applied to the instrument. A novel float construction is also disclosed.

  18. Horizontal film balance having wide range and high sensitivity

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Abraham, Bernard M. (Oak Park, IL); Miyano, Kenjiro (Downers Grove, IL); Ketterson, John B. (Evanston, IL)

    1983-01-01

    A thin-film, horizontal balance instrument is provided for measuring surface tension (surface energy) of thin films suspended on a liquid substrate. The balance includes a support bearing and an optical feedback arrangement for wide-range, high sensitivity measurements. The force on the instrument is balanced by an electromagnet, the current through the magnet providing a measure of the force applied to the instrument. A novel float construction is also disclosed.

  19. Horizontal film balance having wide range and high sensitivity

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Abraham, B.M.; Miyano, K.; Ketterson, J.B.

    1983-11-08

    A thin-film, horizontal balance instrument is provided for measuring surface tension (surface energy) of thin films suspended on a liquid substrate. The balance includes a support bearing and an optical feedback arrangement for wide-range, high sensitivity measurements. The force on the instrument is balanced by an electromagnet, the current through the magnet providing a measure of the force applied to the instrument. A novel float construction is also disclosed. 5 figs.

  20. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  1. Power Electronics and Balance of System Hardware Technologies

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE is targeting solar technology improvements related to power electronics and balance of system (BOS) hardware technologies to reduce the installed cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity and...

  2. Development of a Stiffness-Based Chemistry Load Balancing Scheme...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of a Stiffness-Based Chemistry Load Balancing Scheme, and Optimization of IO and Communication, to Enable Massively Parallel High-Fidelity Internal Combustion Engine Simulations...

  3. FY 2008 & FY 2009 Annual Uncosted Balances Report

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This report presents a combined presentation and analysis of the Department’s uncosted balances for FY 2008 and FY 2009.

  4. ,"U.S. Natural Gas Monthly Supply and Disposition Balance"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Monthly Supply and Disposition Balance" ,"Click worksheet name or tab at bottom for data" ,"Worksheet Name","Description"," Of Series","Frequency","Latest Data for" ,"Data...

  5. Balance-of-System Equipment Required for Renewable Energy Systems |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Balance-of-System Equipment Required for Renewable Energy Systems Balance-of-System Equipment Required for Renewable Energy Systems Both grid-connected and off-grid home renewable energy systems require additional “balance-of-system” equipment. Both grid-connected and off-grid home renewable energy systems require additional "balance-of-system" equipment. Whether you decide to connect your home renewable energy system to the electric grid or not, you

  6. Differential temperature integrating diagnostic method and apparatus

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Doss, James D.; McCabe, Charles W.

    1976-01-01

    A method and device for detecting the presence of breast cancer in women by integrating the temperature difference between the temperature of a normal breast and that of a breast having a malignant tumor. The breast-receiving cups of a brassiere are each provided with thermally conductive material next to the skin, with a thermistor attached to the thermally conductive material in each cup. The thermistors are connected to adjacent arms of a Wheatstone bridge. Unbalance currents in the bridge are integrated with respect to time by means of an electrochemical integrator. In the absence of a tumor, both breasts maintain substantially the same temperature, and the bridge remains balanced. If the tumor is present in one breast, a higher temperature in that breast unbalances the bridge and the electrochemical cells integrate the temperature difference with respect to time.

  7. Internal combustion engine cylinder-to-cylinder balancing with balanced air-fuel ratios

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Harris, Ralph E.; Bourn, Gary D.; Smalley, Anthony J.

    2006-01-03

    A method of balancing combustion among cylinders of an internal combustion engine. For each cylinder, a normalized peak firing pressure is calculated as the ratio of its peak firing pressure to its combustion pressure. Each cylinder's normalized peak firing pressure is compared to a target value for normalized peak firing pressure. The fuel flow is adjusted to any cylinder whose normalized peak firing pressure is not substantially equal to the target value.

  8. Advancements in Wind Integration Study Data Modeling: The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Draxl, C.; Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Jones, W.; Searight, K.; Getman, D.; Harrold, S.; McCaa, J.; Cline, J.; Clark, C.

    2013-10-01

    Regional wind integration studies in the United States require detailed wind power output data at many locations to perform simulations of how the power system will operate under high-penetration scenarios. The wind data sets that serve as inputs into the study must realistically reflect the ramping characteristics, spatial and temporal correlations, and capacity factors of the simulated wind plants, as well as be time synchronized with available load profiles. The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit described in this paper fulfills these requirements. A wind resource dataset, wind power production time series, and simulated forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model run on a nationwide 2-km grid at 5-min resolution will be made publicly available for more than 110,000 onshore and offshore wind power production sites.

  9. NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Systems Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Systems Integration Systems Integration considers the relationships among electricity, thermal, and fuel systems and data and information networks to ensure optimal integration and interoperability across the entire energy system spectrum. Advanced R&D in systems integration ranges from technology innovation to electric, fuel, thermal, and water infrastructure deployment. System integration research areas include: Prototype testing through hardware-in-the-loop Energy system integration

  10. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  11. Balancing technique for Ross-type Stirling and other machines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wood, J.G.; Ross, M.A.

    1992-09-15

    This patent describes an apparatus for balancing inertia forces and rocking couples resulting from the approximately parallel reciprocation of a pair of unequal piston masses linked to a crankshaft and reciprocating out of phase, it comprises: a first counter balance weight mounted to the crankshaft eccentrically of the crankshaft axis of rotation and at an angle which leads the crank throw by a lead angle of more than 180[degrees]; a balance shaft mounted for rotation about an axis parallel to the crankshaft axis and drivingly coupled to the crankshaft and a second counter balance weight mounted eccentrically to the balance shaft and having the product of its mass multiplied by the radial, eccentric offset of its center of mass equal to the product of the first counterbalance weight multiplied by the radial eccentric offset of its center of mass and positioned to lead the crank throw by the lead angle of the first counterbalance mass.

  12. Means and method of balancing multi-cylinder reciprocating machines

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Corey, John A. (North Troy, NY); Walsh, Michael M. (Schenectady, NY)

    1985-01-01

    A virtual balancing axis arrangement is described for multi-cylinder reciprocating piston machines for effectively balancing out imbalanced forces and minimizing residual imbalance moments acting on the crankshaft of such machines without requiring the use of additional parallel-arrayed balancing shafts or complex and expensive gear arrangements. The novel virtual balancing axis arrangement is capable of being designed into multi-cylinder reciprocating piston and crankshaft machines for substantially reducing vibrations induced during operation of such machines with only minimal number of additional component parts. Some of the required component parts may be available from parts already required for operation of auxiliary equipment, such as oil and water pumps used in certain types of reciprocating piston and crankshaft machine so that by appropriate location and dimensioning in accordance with the teachings of the invention, the virtual balancing axis arrangement can be built into the machine at little or no additional cost.

  13. Photovoltaic balance-of-system designs and costs at PVUSA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reyes, A.B.; Jennings, C.

    1995-05-01

    This report is one in a series of 1994-1995 PVUSA reports that document PVUSA lessons learned at demonstration sites in California and Texas. During the last 7 years (1988 to 1994), 16 PV systems ranging from 20 kW to 500 kW have been installed. Six 20-kW emerging module technology (EMT) arrays and three turnkey (i.e., vendor designed and integrated) utility-scale systems were procured and installed at PVUSA`s main test site in Davis, California. PVUSA host utilities have installed a total of seven EMT arrays and utility-scale systems in their service areas. Additional systems at Davis and host utility sites are planned. One of PVUSA`s key objectives is to evaluate the performance, reliability, and cost of PV balance-of-system (BOS). In the procurement stage PVUSA encouraged innovative design to improve upon present practice by reducing maintenance, improving reliability, or lowering manufacturing or construction costs. The project team worked closely with suppliers during the design stage not only to ensure designs met functional and safety specifications, but to provide suggestions for improvement. This report, intended for the photovoltaic (PV) industry and for utility project managers and engineers considering PV plant construction and ownership, documents PVUSA utility-scale system design and cost lessons learned. Complementary PVUSA topical reports document: construction and safety experience; five-year assessment of EMTs; validation of the Kerman 500-kW grid-support PV plant benefits; PVUSA instrumentation and data analysis techniques; procurement, acceptance, and rating practices for PV power plants; experience with power conditioning units and power quality.

  14. Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Balance of Plant and Stack Component Integration...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ...itationwkshopmar10bessette.pdf More Documents & Publications The Micro-CHP Technologies Roadmap, December 2003 High Temperature BOP and Fuel Processing Ceramic Fuel Cells (SOFC)

  15. Integrating Environmental Stewardship

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Integrating Environmental Stewardship Integrating Environmental Stewardship Integrating environmental stewardship to enable the national security mission August 1, 2013 graphic depicting the integration of programs that result in environmental stewardship Many Laboratory functions are integrated with environmental stewardship. This Strategy cannot be effective without systematic integration with other related Laboratory functions, such as site planning, project management, and facilities

  16. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  17. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below $3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below $3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular gasoline should average $2.33 per gallon this year. The price of gasoline increased in early February after falling for 17 weeks in a row. But gasoline prices will continue to remain low in 2015 when compared with pump prices in recent

  18. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  19. Market-Based Indian Grid Integration Study Options: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoltenberg, B.; Clark, K.; Negi, S. K.

    2012-03-01

    The Indian state of Gujarat is forecasting solar and wind generation expansion from 16% to 32% of installed generation capacity by 2015. Some states in India are already experiencing heavy wind power curtailment. Understanding how to integrate variable generation (VG) into the grid is of great interest to local transmission companies and India's Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. This paper describes the nature of a market-based integration study and how this approach, while new to Indian grid operation and planning, is necessary to understand how to operate and expand the grid to best accommodate the expansion of VG. Second, it discusses options in defining a study's scope, such as data granularity, generation modeling, and geographic scope. The paper also explores how Gujarat's method of grid operation and current system reliability will affect how an integration study can be performed.

  20. Analysis Methodology for Balancing Authority Cooperation in High Penetration of Variable Generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Zhou, Ning; Ma, Jian; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Malhara, Sunita V.; Guttromson, Ross T.; Du, Pengwei; Sastry, Chellury

    2010-02-01

    With the rapidly growing penetration level of wind and solar generation, the challenges of managing variability and the uncertainty of intermittent renewable generation become more and more significant. The problem of power variability and uncertainty gets exacerbated when each balancing authority (BA) works locally and separately to balance its own subsystem. The virtual BA concept means various forms of collaboration between individual BAs must manage power variability and uncertainty. The virtual BA will have a wide area control capability in managing its operational balancing requirements in different time frames. This coordination results in the improvement of efficiency and reliability of power system operation while facilitating the high level integration of green, intermittent energy resources. Several strategies for virtual BA implementation, such as ACE diversity interchange (ADI), wind only BA, BA consolidation, dynamic scheduling, regulation and load following sharing, extreme event impact study are discussed in this report. The objective of such strategies is to allow individual BAs within a large power grid to help each other deal with power variability. Innovative methods have been developed to simulate the balancing operation of BAs. These methods evaluate the BA operation through a number of metrics — such as capacity, ramp rate, ramp duration, energy and cycling requirements — to evaluate the performances of different virtual BA strategies. The report builds a systematic framework for evaluating BA consolidation and coordination. Results for case studies show that significant economic and reliability benefits can be gained. The merits and limitation of each virtual BA strategy are investigated. The report provides guidelines for the power industry to evaluate the coordination or consolidation method. The application of the developed strategies in cooperation with several regional BAs is in progress for several off-spring projects.

  1. The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) toolkit (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Caroline Draxl: NREL

    2014-01-01

    Regional wind integration studies require detailed wind power output data at many locations to perform simulations of how the power system will operate under high penetration scenarios. The wind datasets that serve as inputs into the study must realistically reflect the ramping characteristics, spatial and temporal correlations, and capacity factors of the simulated wind plants, as well as being time synchronized with available load profiles.As described in this presentation, the WIND Toolkit fulfills these requirements by providing a state-of-the-art national (US) wind resource, power production and forecast dataset.

  2. Control of carbon balance in a silicon smelting furnace

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dosaj, V.D.; Haines, C.M.; May, J.B.; Oleson, J.D.

    1992-12-29

    The present invention is a process for the carbothermic reduction of silicon dioxide to form elemental silicon. Carbon balance of the process is assessed by measuring the amount of carbon monoxide evolved in offgas exiting the furnace. A ratio of the amount of carbon monoxide evolved and the amount of silicon dioxide added to the furnace is determined. Based on this ratio, the carbon balance of the furnace can be determined and carbon feed can be adjusted to maintain the furnace in carbon balance.

  3. Balance-of-System Equipment Required for Renewable Energy Systems |

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Department of Energy Both grid-connected and off-grid home renewable energy systems require additional “balance-of-system” equipment. Both grid-connected and off-grid home renewable energy systems require additional "balance-of-system" equipment. Whether you decide to connect your home renewable energy system to the electric grid or not, you will need to invest in some additional equipment (called "balance-of-system") to condition the electricity, safely

  4. BEopt-CA (Ex): A Tool for Optimal Integration of EE, DR and PV in Existing California Homes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Christensen, Craig; Horowitz, Scott; Maguire, Jeff; Velasco, Paulo Tabrares; Springer, David; Coates, Peter; Bell, Christy; Price, Snuller; Sreedharan, Priya; Pickrell, Katie

    2014-04-01

    This project targeted the development of a software tool, BEopt-CA (Ex) (Building Energy Optimization Tool for California Existing Homes), that aims to facilitate balanced integration of energy efficiency (EE), demand response (DR), and photovoltaics (PV) in the residential retrofit1 market. The intent is to provide utility program managers and contractors in the EE/DR/PV marketplace with a means of balancing the integration of EE, DR, and PV

  5. Design of dynamic load-balancing tools for parallel applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Devine, K.D.; Hendrickson, B.A.; Boman, E.G.; St. John, M.; Vaughan, C.T.

    2000-01-03

    The design of general-purpose dynamic load-balancing tools for parallel applications is more challenging than the design of static partitioning tools. Both algorithmic and software engineering issues arise. The authors have addressed many of these issues in the design of the Zoltan dynamic load-balancing library. Zoltan has an object-oriented interface that makes it easy to use and provides separation between the application and the load-balancing algorithms. It contains a suite of dynamic load-balancing algorithms, including both geometric and graph-based algorithms. Its design makes it valuable both as a partitioning tool for a variety of applications and as a research test-bed for new algorithmic development. In this paper, the authors describe Zoltan's design and demonstrate its use in an unstructured-mesh finite element application.

  6. Balance-of-System Equipment Required for Renewable Energy Systems...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Both grid-connected and off-grid home renewable energy systems require additional balance-of-system equipment. Both grid-connected and off-grid home renewable energy...

  7. NREL: Energy Systems Integration Facility - Systems Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Systems Integration Systems integration considers the relationships among electricity, thermal, and fuel systems and data and information networks to ensure optimal interoperability across the energy spectrum. The Energy Systems Integration Facility's suite of systems integration laboratories provides advanced capabilities for research, development, and demonstration of key components of future energy systems. Photo of a man and a power quality meter system in a laboratory. The Energy Systems

  8. Wolfgang Eberhardt on Light Sources: Getting the Balance Right

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wolfgang Eberhardt on Light Sources: Getting the Balance Right Wolfgang Eberhardt on Light Sources: Getting the Balance Right Print Wolfgang Eberhardt at the Advanced Light Source, September 2015. Click the image to watch the video of his talk, "Diffraction Limited Storage Rings and Free Electron Lasers-Why Do We Need Both?" As a graduate student in the 1970s, Wolfgang Eberhardt conducted his first experiment at the old DESY synchrotron in Hamburg, Germany. A so-called

  9. Ultrafast kinetics subsequent to shock in an unreacted, oxygen balanced

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    mixture of nitromethane and hydrogen peroxide (Conference) | SciTech Connect kinetics subsequent to shock in an unreacted, oxygen balanced mixture of nitromethane and hydrogen peroxide Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ultrafast kinetics subsequent to shock in an unreacted, oxygen balanced mixture of nitromethane and hydrogen peroxide Authors: Armstrong, M R ; Zaug, J M ; Grant, C D ; Crowhurst, J C ; Bastea, S Publication Date: 2014-06-24 OSTI Identifier: 1149544 Report Number(s):

  10. Renewable portfolio standards in the states: balancing goals and rules

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Renewable portfolio standards in the states: balancing goals and rules Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Renewable portfolio standards in the states: balancing goals and rules Renewable portfolio standards establish a minimum percentage of electricity that retailers must provide from renewable energy sources. However, successful implementation must surmount the hurdle of RPS rules that vary from state to state along with their impacts on the

  11. Ultrafast kinetics subsequent to shock in an unreacted, oxygen balanced

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    mixture of nitromethane and hydrogen peroxide (Conference) | SciTech Connect kinetics subsequent to shock in an unreacted, oxygen balanced mixture of nitromethane and hydrogen peroxide Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ultrafast kinetics subsequent to shock in an unreacted, oxygen balanced mixture of nitromethane and hydrogen peroxide Ă— You are accessing a document from the Department of Energy's (DOE) SciTech Connect. This site is a product of DOE's Office of Scientific and

  12. Ultrafast kinetics subsequent to shock in an unreacted, oxygen balanced

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    mixture of nitromethane and hydrogen peroxide (Conference) | SciTech Connect kinetics subsequent to shock in an unreacted, oxygen balanced mixture of nitromethane and hydrogen peroxide Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ultrafast kinetics subsequent to shock in an unreacted, oxygen balanced mixture of nitromethane and hydrogen peroxide Authors: Armstrong, M R ; Zaug, J M ; Grant, C D ; Crowhurst, J C ; Bastea, S Publication Date: 2014-06-24 OSTI Identifier: 1149544 Report Number(s):

  13. Beginning Foreign Obligation Balances for the Power Reactors Presentation

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Beginning Foreign Obligation Balances Beginning Foreign Obligation Balances for the Power Reactors for the Power Reactors Michael J. Smith Michael J. Smith NAC International NAC International Obligations Accounting Implementation Workshop Obligations Accounting Implementation Workshop January 13, 2004 January 13, 2004 Crowne Crowne Plaza Plaza Ravinia Ravinia Atlanta, Georgia Atlanta, Georgia Project Purpose Project Purpose * Bridge the gap in foreign obligated (FO) inventory tracking for US

  14. Acquisition Guide Chapter 1.2 - Balanced Scorecard Performance Assessment

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Program - (March 2004) | Department of Energy 2 - Balanced Scorecard Performance Assessment Program - (March 2004) Acquisition Guide Chapter 1.2 - Balanced Scorecard Performance Assessment Program - (March 2004) This chapter provides a summary of HCA authorities based on statute, FAR, DEAR, and DOE Orders. It serves as a general guide to the authorities that may be conferred via a formal delegation of HCA authority from the Department of Energy Senior Procurement Executive. This formal

  15. Upstream Measurements of Wind Profiles with Doppler Lidar for Improved Wind Energy Integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rodney Frehlich

    2012-10-30

    New upstream measurements of wind profiles over the altitude range of wind turbines will be produced using a scanning Doppler lidar. These long range high quality measurements will provide improved wind power forecasts for wind energy integration into the power grid. The main goal of the project is to develop the optimal Doppler lidar operating parameters and data processing algorithms for improved wind energy integration by enhancing the wind power forecasts in the 30 to 60 minute time frame, especially for the large wind power ramps. Currently, there is very little upstream data at large wind farms, especially accurate wind profiles over the full height of the turbine blades. The potential of scanning Doppler lidar will be determined by rigorous computer modeling and evaluation of actual Doppler lidar data from the WindTracer system produced by Lockheed Martin Coherent Technologies, Inc. of Louisville, Colorado. Various data products will be investigated for input into numerical weather prediction models and statistically based nowcasting algorithms. Successful implementation of the proposed research will provide the required information for a full cost benefit analysis of the improved forecasts of wind power for energy integration as well as the added benefit of high quality wind and turbulence information for optimal control of the wind turbines at large wind farms.

  16. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  17. Integrating Environmental Stewardship

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    stewardship Many Laboratory functions are integrated with environmental stewardship. This Strategy cannot be effective without systematic integration with other related Laboratory...

  18. Distribution Grid Integration

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE Systems Integration team funds distribution grid integration research and development (R&D) activities to address the technical issues that surround distribution grid planning,...

  19. Thermal Control & System Integration

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The thermal control and system integration activity focuses on issues such as the integration of motor and power control technologies and the development of advanced thermal control technologies....

  20. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  1. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  2. Sandia Energy - Transmission Grid Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Transmission Grid Integration Home Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Photovoltaics Grid Integration Transmission Grid Integration Transmission Grid...

  3. Sandia Energy - Distribution Grid Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Distribution Grid Integration Home Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Photovoltaics Grid Integration Distribution Grid Integration Distribution Grid...

  4. Examination of the Regional Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity in the United States through 2015: Projecting from 2009 through 2015 (Revised)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Hurlbut, D.; Donohoo, P.; Cory, K.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-06-01

    This report examines the balance between the demand and supply of new renewable electricity in the United States on a regional basis through 2015. It expands on a 2007 NREL study that assessed the supply and demand balance on a national basis. As with the earlier study, this analysis relies on estimates of renewable energy supplies compared to demand for renewable energy generation needed to meet existing state renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policies in 28 states, as well as demand by consumers who voluntarily purchase renewable energy. However, it does not address demand by utilities that may procure cost-effective renewables through an integrated resource planning process or otherwise.

  5. Residential Buildings Integration Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Residential Buildings Integration Program Presentation for the 2013 Building Technologies Office's Program Peer Review

  6. Dynamic Analysis of Electrical Power Grid Delivery: Using Prime Mover Engines to Balance Dynamic Wind Turbine Output

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diana K. Grauer

    2011-10-01

    This paper presents an investigation into integrated wind + combustion engine high penetration electrical generation systems. Renewable generation systems are now a reality of electrical transmission. Unfortunately, many of these renewable energy supplies are stochastic and highly dynamic. Conversely, the existing national grid has been designed for steady state operation. The research team has developed an algorithm to investigate the feasibility and relative capability of a reciprocating internal combustion engine to directly integrate with wind generation in a tightly coupled Hybrid Energy System. Utilizing the Idaho National Laboratory developed Phoenix Model Integration Platform, the research team has coupled demand data with wind turbine generation data and the Aspen Custom Modeler reciprocating engine electrical generator model to investigate the capability of reciprocating engine electrical generation to balance stochastic renewable energy.

  7. TECHNOLOGIES TO ENHANCE THE OPERATION OF EXISTING NATURAL GAS COMPRESSION INFRASTRUCTURE - MANIFOLD DESIGN FOR CONTROLLING ENGINE AIR BALANCE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary D. Bourn; Ford A. Phillips; Ralph E. Harris

    2005-12-01

    This document provides results and conclusions for Task 15.0--Detailed Analysis of Air Balance & Conceptual Design of Improved Air Manifolds in the ''Technologies to Enhance the Operation of Existing Natural Gas Compression Infrastructure'' project. SwRI{reg_sign} is conducting this project for DOE in conjunction with Pipeline Research Council International, Gas Machinery Research Council, El Paso Pipeline, Cooper Compression, and Southern Star, under DOE contract number DE-FC26-02NT41646. The objective of Task 15.0 was to investigate the perceived imbalance in airflow between power cylinders in two-stroke integral compressor engines and develop solutions via manifold redesign. The overall project objective is to develop and substantiate methods for operating integral engine/compressors in gas pipeline service, which reduce fuel consumption, increase capacity, and enhance mechanical integrity.

  8. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Wind Integration Datasets

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2005, and 2006. These datasets were designed to help energy professionals perform wind integration studies and estimate power production from hypothetical wind plants. For the...

  9. Integration of Uncertainty Information into Power System Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Lu, Shuai; Samaan, Nader A.; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Hafen, Ryan P.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning

    2011-10-10

    Contemporary power systems face uncertainties coming from multiple sources, including forecast errors of load, wind and solar generation, uninstructed deviation and forced outage of traditional generators, loss of transmission lines, and others. With increasing amounts of wind and solar generation being integrated into the system, these uncertainties have been growing significantly. It is critical important to build knowledge of major sources of uncertainty, learn how to simulate them, and then incorporate this information into the decision-making processes and power system operations, for better reliability and efficiency. This paper gives a comprehensive view on the sources of uncertainty in power systems, important characteristics, available models, and ways of their integration into system operations. It is primarily based on previous works conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL).

  10. DE-SC0004670 Final Technical Report Project Title: Two-Way Integration of WRF and CCSM for Regional Climate Simulations

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    SC0004670 Final Technical Report Project Title: Two-Way Integration of WRF and CCSM for Regional Climate Simulations Investigators: Wuyin Lin, Minghua Zhang, Xiangmin Jiao, Brian Colle, Andrew M. Vogelmann, Marat Khairoutdinov, and L. Ruby Leung Under the support of the DOE award DE-SC0004670, we have successfully developed an integrated climate modeling system by nesting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model within the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the ensuing new generation

  11. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  12. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  13. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  14. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  15. Potential Reductions in Variability with Alternative Approaches to Balancing Area Cooperation with High Penetrations of Variable Generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Milligan, M.; Kirby, B.; Beuning, S.

    2010-08-01

    The work described in this report was performed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the Office of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy (EERE DOE). This project is a joint project with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. This report evaluates the physical characteristics that improve the ability of the power system to absorb variable generation. It then uses evidence from electricity markets in the Eastern Interconnection of the United States to show how large, fast energy markets can help with integration. The concept of Virtual Balancing Area is introduced, a concept that covers a broad range of cooperative measures that can be undertaken by balancing areas to help manage variability.

  16. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  17. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  18. Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    5060 Sargent & Lundy LLC Consulting Group Chicago, Illinois Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 NREL is a U.S. Department of Energy Laboratory Operated by Midwest Research Institute * Battelle * Bechtel Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337 October 2003 * NREL/SR-550-35060 Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower

  19. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  20. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  1. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  2. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvén waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  3. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  4. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  5. Smart Meters Help Balance Energy Consumption at Solar Decathlon |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Smart Meters Help Balance Energy Consumption at Solar Decathlon Smart Meters Help Balance Energy Consumption at Solar Decathlon September 28, 2011 - 10:57am Addthis The Team Tidewater Virginia smart meter, as seen on opening day, indicates the team generated 5 kW hours of electricity in the first several hours of the competition. | Image courtesy of Lachlan Fletcher, Studio 18a The Team Tidewater Virginia smart meter, as seen on opening day, indicates the team generated

  6. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast February 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Uncertainties in the Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data,

  7. Integration of Water Resource Models with Fayetteville Shale Decision Support and Information System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cothren, Jackson; Thoma, Greg; DiLuzio, Mauro; Limp, Fred

    2013-06-30

    Significant issues can arise with the timing, location, and volume of surface water withdrawals associated with hydraulic fracturing of gas shale reservoirs as impacted watersheds may be sensitive, especially in drought years, during low flow periods, or during periods of the year when activities such as irrigation place additional demands on the surface supply of water. Significant energy production and associated water withdrawals may have a cumulative impact to watersheds over the short-term. Hence, hydraulic fracturing based on water withdrawal could potentially create shifts in the timing and magnitude of low or high flow events or change the magnitude of river flow at daily, monthly, seasonal, or yearly time scales. These changes in flow regimes can result in dramatically altered river systems. Currently little is known about the impact of fracturing on stream flow behavior. Within this context the objective of this study is to assess the impact of the hydraulic fracturing on the water balance of the Fayetteville Shale play area and examine the potential impacts of hydraulic fracturing on river flow regime at subbasin scale. This project addressed that need with four unique but integrated research and development efforts: 1) Evaluate the predictive reliability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model based at a variety of scales (Task/Section 3.5). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate the across-scale water balance and the respective impact of hydraulic fracturing. A second hypothetical scenario was designed to assess the current and future impacts of water withdrawals for hydraulic fracturing on the flow regime and on the environmental flow components (EFCs) of the river. The shifting of these components, which present critical elements to water supply and water quality, could influence the ecological dynamics of river systems. For this purpose, we combined the use of SWAT model and Richter et al.’s (1996) methodology to assess the shifting and alteration of the flow regime within the river and streams of the study area. 2) Evaluate the effect of measurable land use changes related to gas development (well-pad placement, access road completion, etc.) on surface water flow in the region (Task/Section 3.7). Results showed that since the upsurge in shale-gas related activities in the Fayetteville Shale Play (between 2006 and 2010), shale-gas related infrastructure in the region have increase by 78%. This change in land-cover in comparison with other land-cover classes such as forest, urban, pasture, agricultural and water indicates the highest rate of change in any land-cover category for the study period. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) flow model of the Little Red River watershed simulated from 2000 to 2009 showed a 10% increase in storm water runoff. A forecast scenario based on the assumption that 2010 land-cover does not see any significant change over the forecast period (2010 to 2020) also showed a 10% increase in storm water runoff. Further analyses showed that this change in the stream-flow regime for the forecast period is attributable to the increase in land-cover as introduced by the shale-gas infrastructure. 3) Upgrade the Fayetteville Shale Information System to include information on watershed status. (Tasks/Sections 2.1 and 2.2). This development occurred early in the project period, and technological improvements in web-map API’s have made it possible to further improve the map. The current sites (http://lingo.cast.uark.edu) is available but is currently being upgraded to a more modern interface and robust mapping engine using funds outside this project. 4) Incorporate the methodologies developed in Tasks/Sections 3.5 and 3.7 into a Spatial Decision Support System for use by regulatory agencies and producers in the play. The resulting system is available at http://fayshale.cast.uark.edu and is under review the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission.

  8. Disentangling Mechanisms That Mediate the Balance Between Stochastic and Deterministic Processes in Microbial Succession

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Stegen, James C.; van Elsas, Jan D.; Falcao Salles, Joana

    2015-03-17

    Despite growing recognition that deterministic and stochastic factors simultaneously influence bacterial communities, little is known about mechanisms shifting their relative importance. To better understand underlying mechanisms, we developed a conceptual model linking ecosystem development during primary succession to shifts in the stochastic/deterministic balance. To evaluate the conceptual model we coupled spatiotemporal data on soil bacterial communities with environmental conditions spanning 105 years of salt marsh development. At the local scale there was a progression from stochasticity to determinism due to Na accumulation with increasing ecosystem age, supporting a main element of the conceptual model. At the regional-scale, soil organic matter (SOM) governed the relative influence of stochasticity and the type of deterministic ecological selection, suggesting scale-dependency in how deterministic ecological selection is imposed. Analysis of a new ecological simulation model supported these conceptual inferences. Looking forward, we propose an extended conceptual model that integrates primary and secondary succession in microbial systems.

  9. Integration of Photovoltaics into Building Energy Usage through Advanced Control of Rooftop Unit

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Starke, Michael R; Nutaro, James J; Irminger, Philip; Ollis, Benjamin; Kuruganti, Phani Teja; Fugate, David L

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a computational approach to forecast photovoltaic (PV) power in kW based on a neural network linkage of publicly available cloud cover data and on-site solar irradiance sensor data. We also describe a control approach to utilize rooftop air conditioning units (RTUs) to support renewable integration. The PV forecasting method is validated using data from a rooftop PV panel installed on the Distributed Energy, Communications, and Controls (DECC) laboratory at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The validation occurs in multiple phases to ensure that each component of the approach is the best representation of the actual expected output. The control of the RTU is based on model predictive methods.

  10. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Solar Integration National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    solar generation integration studies by providing modeled, coherent sub-hour solar power data, information, and tools. Sub-hour solar power data are used in the Western Wind...

  11. Integrated rural energy planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    El Mahgary, Y.; Biswas, A.K.

    1985-01-01

    This book presents papers on integrated community energy systems in developing countries. Topics considered include an integrated rural energy system in Sri Lanka, rural energy systems in Indonesia, integrated rural food-energy systems and technology diffusion in India, bringing energy to the rural sector in the Philippines, the development of a new energy village in China, the Niaga Wolof experimental rural energy center, designing a model rural energy system for Nigeria, the Basaisa village integrated field project, a rural energy project in Tanzania, rural energy development in Columbia, and guidelines for the planning, development and operation of integrated rural energy projects.

  12. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  13. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  14. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  15. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in 2016. U.S. crude oil production is still expected to average 9.2 million barrels per day this year. That's up half a million barrels per day from last year and the highest output level in more than four decades. A substantial part of the year-over-year increase reflects rapid production growth throughout 2014.

  16. Defense Nuclear Material Stewardship Integrated Inventory Information Management System (IIIMS).

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aas, Christopher A.; Lenhart, James E.; Bray, Olin H.; Witcher, Christina Jenkin

    2004-11-01

    Sandia National Laboratories was tasked with developing the Defense Nuclear Material Stewardship Integrated Inventory Information Management System (IIIMS) with the sponsorship of NA-125.3 and the concurrence of DOE/NNSA field and area offices. The purpose of IIIMS was to modernize nuclear materials management information systems at the enterprise level. Projects over the course of several years attempted to spearhead this modernization. The scope of IIIMS was broken into broad enterprise-oriented materials management and materials forecasting. The IIIMS prototype was developed to allow multiple participating user groups to explore nuclear material requirements and needs in detail. The purpose of material forecasting was to determine nuclear material availability over a 10 to 15 year period in light of the dynamic nature of nuclear materials management. Formal DOE Directives (requirements) were needed to direct IIIMS efforts but were never issued and the project has been halted. When restarted, duplicating or re-engineering the activities from 1999 to 2003 is unnecessary, and in fact future initiatives can build on previous work. IIIMS requirements should be structured to provide high confidence that discrepancies are detected, and classified information is not divulged. Enterprise-wide materials management systems maintained by the military can be used as overall models to base IIIMS implementation concepts upon.

  17. U.S. Natural Gas Balancing Item (Million Cubic Feet)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Balancing Item (Million Cubic Feet) U.S. Natural Gas Balancing Item (Million Cubic Feet) Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5 Year-6 Year-7 Year-8 Year-9 1990's 634,809 -111,218 2000's -240,342 134,346 -13,339 -38,495 356,956 134,293 61,404 -196,323 33,472 -89,392 2010's 124,358 -130,108 -123,053 -15,729 -44,437 - = No Data Reported; -- = Not Applicable; NA = Not Available; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Release Date: 2/29/2016 Next Release Date:

  18. Steam Balancing and Tuning for Multifamily Residential Buildings in Chicagoland

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Choi, J.; Ludwig, P.; Brand, L.

    2012-08-01

    Older heating systems often suffer from mis-investment--multiple contractors upgrading parts of systems in inadequate or inappropriate ways that reduce system functionality and efficiency--or from a lack of proper maintenance. This technical report addresses these barriers to information, contractor resources, and cost-savings. Building off of previous research, CNT Energy conducted a study to identify best practices for the methodology, typical costs, and energy savings associated with steam; system balancing.

  19. Offshore Wind Balance-of-System Cost Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maness, Michael; Stehly, Tyler; Maples, Ben; Mone, Christopher

    2015-09-29

    Offshore wind balance-of-system (BOS) costs contribute up to 70% of installed capital costs. Thus, it is imperative to understand the impact of these costs on project economics as well as potential cost trends for new offshore wind technology developments. As a result, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed and recently updated a BOS techno-economic model using project cost estimates created from wind energy industry sources.

  20. Cylinder To Cylinder Balancing Using Intake Valve Actuation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Duffy, Kevin P. (East Peoria, IL); Kieser, Andrew J. (Morton, IL); Kilkenny, Jonathan P. (Peoria, IL)

    2005-01-18

    A method and apparatus for balancing a combustion phasing between a plurality of cylinders located in an engine. The method and apparatus includes a determining a combustion timing in each cylinder, establishing a baseline parameter for a desired combustion timing, and varying actuation of at least one of a plurality of intake valves, each intake valve being in fluid communication with a corresponding cylinder, such that the combustion timing in each cylinder is substantially equal to the desired combustion timing.

  1. DOE Transmission System Integration Workshop

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Tomorrow's Power System One size does not fit all 3 2012 Electric Power Research ... Grid functionality restores the balance Hydro power plants Nuclear Power Plants Natural ...

  2. Integrated assessment of dispersed energy resources deployment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marnay, Chris; Blanco, Raquel; Hamachi, Kristina S.; Kawaan, Cornelia P.; Osborn, Julie G.; Rubio, F. Javier

    2000-06-01

    The goal of this work is to create an integrated framework for forecasting the adoption of distributed energy resources (DER), both by electricity customers and by the various institutions within the industry itself, and for evaluating the effect of this adoption on the power system, particularly on the overall reliability and quality of electrical service to the end user. This effort and follow on contributions are intended to anticipate and explore possible patterns of DER deployment, thereby guiding technical work on microgrids towards the key technical problems. An early example of this process addressed is the question of possible DER adopting customer disconnection. A deployment scenario in which many customers disconnect from their distribution company (disco) entirely leads to a quite different set of technical problems than a scenario in which customers self generate a significant share or all of their on-site electricity requirements and additionally buy and sell energy and ancillary services (AS) locally and/or into wider markets. The exploratory work in this study suggests that the economics under which customers disconnect entirely are unlikely.

  3. Reformulated Gasoline Foreign Refinery Rules

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Reformulated Gasoline Foreign Refinery Rules Contents * Introduction o Table 1. History of Foreign Refiner Regulations * Foreign Refinery Baseline * Monitoring Imported Conventional Gasoline * Endnotes Related EIA Short-Term Forecast Analysis Products * Areas Participating in the Reformulated Gasoline Program * Environmental Regulations and Changes in Petroleum Refining Operations * Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model * Refiners Switch to Reformulated

  4. Wind Energy Integration: Slides

    Wind Powering America (EERE)

    provide information about integrating wind energy into the electricity grid. Wind Energy Integration Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL 25907 Wind energy currently contributes significant power to energy portfolios around the world. *U.S. Department of Energy. (August 2015). 2014 Wind Technologies Market Report. Wind Energy Integration In 2014, Denmark led the way with wind power supplying roughly 39% of the country's electricity demand. Ireland, Portugal, and Spain provided more than 20% of their

  5. Residential Buildings Integration (RBI)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    | Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov David Lee Program Manager Residential Buildings Integration (RBI) April 22, 2014 Residential Buildings Integration (RBI) Mission/Vision The Residential Buildings Integration (RBI) program's mission: To accelerate energy performance improvements in residential buildings by developing, demonstrating, and deploying a suite of cost-effective technologies, tools, and solutions to achieve peak performance in new and existing homes. RBI Vision,

  6. Energy Systems Integration

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Systems Integration Ben Kroposki, PhD, PE Director, Energy Systems Integration National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 Reducing investment risk and optimizing systems in a rapidly changing energy world * Increasing penetration of variable RE in grid * Increasing ultra high energy efficiency buildings and controllable loads * New data, information, communications and controls * Electrification of transportation and alternative fuels * Integrating energy storage (stationary and mobile) and thermal

  7. Commercial Buildings Integration (CBI)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1 | Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov Arah Schuur Program Manager Commercial Buildings Integration (CBI) April 22, 2014 Commercial Buildings Integration (CBI) 2 Commercial Buildings Integration (CBI) Mission/Vision CBI Mission Accelerate voluntary uptake of significant energy performance improvements in existing and new commercial buildings. CBI Vision: A commercial buildings market where energy performance is a key consideration during construction, operation, renovation,

  8. EIA-930 Hourly and Daily Balancing Authority Operations Reports - Instructions Page

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    930 Hourly and Daily Balancing Authority Operations Reports - Instructions Page 1 of 3 You must have an EIA Data xChange account to use these instructions HOURLY AND DAILY BALANCING AUTHORITY OPERATIONS REPORT DATA XCHANGE TRANSMITTAL INSTRUCTIONS EIA-930 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

  9. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  10. Sandia Energy - Grid Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of Sandia's larger portfolio of renewable energy technology programs (Wind, Solar Power, Geothermal, and Energy Systems Analysis). Transmission Grid Integration The goal of...

  11. Commercial Buildings Integration

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Buildings Integration Images courtesy CREE, True Manufacturing, A.O. Smith, Bernstein Associates, Cambridge Engineering, Alliance Laundry Systems, NREL 2 Strategic Fit within ...

  12. Integrating Electricity Subsector

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology ... Executive, Cyber Security Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) For more information on ...

  13. Distribution Grid Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Carbide Thyristors Read More Permalink ECIS-Princeton Power Systems, Inc.: Demand Response Inverter DETL, Distribution Grid Integration, Energy, Energy Surety, Facilities, ...

  14. NREL: Energy Systems Integration - Events

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    archive. Printable Version Energy Systems Integration Home Capabilities Research & Development Facilities Working with Us Publications News Events Energy Systems Integration...

  15. Extreme Balance of System Hardware Cost Reduction (BOS-X) Funding

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Opportunity | Department of Energy Extreme Balance of System Hardware Cost Reduction (BOS-X) Funding Opportunity Extreme Balance of System Hardware Cost Reduction (BOS-X) Funding Opportunity Under the Extreme Balance of System Hardware Cost Reduction (BOS-X) program, DOE is funding new components and system designs to overcome scientific, technological, and engineering barriers to achieving safe, very low-cost, high-reliability balance of system (BOS) hardware. BOS-X projects are focused on

  16. Should different impact assessment instruments be integrated? Evidence from English spatial planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tajima, Ryo; Fischer, Thomas B.

    2013-07-15

    This paper aims at providing empirical evidence to the question as to whether integration of different instruments is achieving its aim in supporting sustainable decision making, focusing on SEA inclusive sustainability appraisal (SA) and other impact assessments (IAs) currently used in English spatial planning. Usage of IAs in addition to SA is established and an analysis of the integration approach (in terms of process, output, and assessor) as well as its effectiveness is conducted. It is found that while integration enhances effectiveness to some extent, too much integration, especially in terms of the procedural element, appears to diminish the overall effectiveness of each IA in influencing decisions as they become captured by the balancing function of SA. -- Highlights: ? The usage of different impact assessments in English spatial planning is clarified. ? The relationship between integration approach and effectiveness is analyzed. ? Results suggest that integration does not necessarily lead to more sustainable decisions. ? Careful consideration is recommended upon process integration.

  17. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Publications

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Publications Want updates about future transmission grid integration webinars and publications? Join our mailing list. NREL has an extensive collection of publications related to transmission integration research. Explore the resources below to learn more. Selected Project Publications Read selected publications related to these transmission integration projects: Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study Oahu Wind Integration and Transmission Study

  18. Summative Mass Analysis of Algal Biomass - Integration of Analytical Procedures: Laboratory Analytical Procedure (LAP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Laurens, L. M. L.

    2013-12-01

    This procedure guides the integration of laboratory analytical procedures to measure algal biomass constituents in an unambiguous manner and ultimately achieve mass balance closure for algal biomass samples. Many of these methods build on years of research in algal biomass analysis.

  19. Integrating Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2014-01-01

    Provides an overview of the complete National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) model, and includes brief descriptions of the modules with which the Integrating Module interacts. The emphasis and focus, however, is on the structure and function of the Integrating Module of NEMS.

  20. Arid site water balance: evapotranspiration modeling and measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gee, G.W.; Kirkham, R.R.

    1984-09-01

    In order to evaluate the magnitude of radionuclide transport at an aird site, a field and modeling study was conducted to measure and predict water movement under vegetated and bare soil conditions. Significant quantities of water were found to move below the roo of a shallow-rooted grass-covered area during wet years at the Hanford site. The unsaturated water flow model, UNSAT-1D, was resonably successful in simulating the transient behavior of the water balance at this site. The effects of layered soils on water balance were demonstrated using the model. Models used to evaluate water balance in arid regions should not rely on annual averages and assume that all precipitation is removed by evapotranspiration. The potential for drainage at arid sites exists under conditions where shallow rooted plants grow on coarse textured soils. This condition was observed at our study site at Hanford. Neutron probe data collected on a cheatgrass community at the Hanford site during a wet year indicated that over 5 cm of water drained below the 3.5-m depth. The unsaturated water flow model, UNSAT-1D, predicted water drainage of about 5 cm (single layer, 10 months) and 3.5 cm (two layers, 12 months) for the same time period. Additional field measurements of hydraulic conductivity will likely improve the drainage estimate made by UNSAT-1D. Additional information describing cheatgrass growth and water use at the grass site could improve model predictions of sink terms and subsequent calculations of water storage within the rooting zone. In arid areas where the major part of the annual precipitation occurs during months with low average potential evapotranspiration and where soils are vegetated but are coarse textured and well drained, significant drainage can occur. 31 references, 18 figures, 1 table.

  1. Detailed balance limit of power conversion efficiency for organic photovoltaics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seki, Kazuhiko; Furube, Akihiro; Yoshida, Yuji

    2013-12-16

    A fundamental difference between inorganic photovoltaic (IPV) and organic photovoltaic (OPV) cells is that charges are generated at the interface in OPV cells, while free charges can be generated in the bulk in IPV cells. In OPV cells, charge generation involves intrinsic energy losses to dissociate excitons at the interface between the donor and acceptor. By taking into account the energy losses, we show the theoretical limits of the power conversion efficiency set by radiative recombination of the carriers on the basis of the detailed balance relation between radiation from the cell and black-body radiation.

  2. U.S. Natural Gas Monthly Supply and Disposition Balance

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Monthly Supply and Disposition Balance (Billion Cubic Feet) Period: Monthly Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Data Series Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 View History Gross Withdrawals 2,767 2,766 2,750 2,818 2,740 2,823 1973-2015 Marketed Production 2,459 2,474 2,407 2,456 2,372 2,440 1973-2015 NGPL Production, Gaseous Equivalent 146 148 144 153 149 151 1973-2015 Dry Production 2,314 2,326 2,263 2,303

  3. Fact #674: May 9, 2011 Petroleum Trade Balance | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    4: May 9, 2011 Petroleum Trade Balance Fact #674: May 9, 2011 Petroleum Trade Balance The trade balance (exports minus imports) for petroleum has been negative for more than a quarter of a century, meaning that the U.S. imports more petroleum than it exports. The largest petroleum trade deficit was in 2008, when the U.S. imported $449.8 billion and exported only $61.6 billion. Petroleum Trade Balance, 1970-2010 Graph showing the petroleum trade balance from 1970 to 2010. The largest trade

  4. Capacity Requirements to Support Inter-Balancing Area Wind Delivery

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kirby, B.; Milligan, M.

    2009-07-01

    Paper examines the capacity requirements that arise as wind generation is integrated into the power system and how those requirements change depending on where the wind energy is delivered.

  5. Integrated assessment briefs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    Integrated assessment can be used to evaluate and clarify resource management policy options and outcomes for decision makers. The defining characteristics of integrated assessment are (1) focus on providing information and analysis that can be understood and used by decision makers rather than for merely advancing understanding and (2) its multidisciplinary approach, using methods, styles of study, and considerations from a broader variety of technical areas than would typically characterize studies produced from a single disciplinary standpoint. Integrated assessment may combine scientific, social, economic, health, and environmental data and models. Integrated assessment requires bridging the gap between science and policy considerations. Because not everything can be valued using a single metric, such as a dollar value, the integrated assessment process also involves evaluating trade-offs among dissimilar attributes. Scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) recognized the importance and value of multidisciplinary approaches to solving environmental problems early on and have pioneered the development of tools and methods for integrated assessment over the past three decades. Major examples of ORNL`s experience in the development of its capabilities for integrated assessment are given.

  6. OXALATE MASS BALANCE DURING CHEMICAL CLEANING IN TANK 6F

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poirier, M.; Fink, S.

    2011-07-22

    The Savannah River Remediation (SRR) is preparing Tank 6F for closure. The first step in preparing the tank for closure is mechanical sludge removal. Following mechanical sludge removal, SRS performed chemical cleaning with oxalic acid to remove the sludge heel. Personnel are currently assessing the effectiveness of the chemical cleaning to determine whether the tank is ready for closure. SRR personnel collected liquid samples during chemical cleaning and submitted them to Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) for analysis. Following chemical cleaning, they collected a solid sample (also known as 'process sample') and submitted it to SRNL for analysis. The authors analyzed these samples to assess the effectiveness of the chemical cleaning process. Analysis of the anions showed the measured oxalate removed from Tank 6F to be approximately 50% of the amount added in the oxalic acid. To close the oxalate mass balance, the author collected solid samples, leached them with nitric acid, and measured the concentration of cations and anions in the leachate. Some conclusions from this work are: (1) Approximately 65% of the oxalate added as oxalic acid was removed with the decanted liquid. (2) Approximately 1% of the oxalate (added to the tank as oxalic acid) formed precipitates with compounds such as nickel, manganese, sodium, and iron (II), and was dissolved with nitric acid. (3) As much as 30% of the oxalate may have decomposed forming carbon dioxide. The balance does not fully account for all the oxalate added. The offset represents the combined uncertainty in the analyses and sampling.

  7. Fuzzy-probabilistic calculations of water-balance uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Faybishenko, B.

    2009-10-01

    Hydrogeological systems are often characterized by imprecise, vague, inconsistent, incomplete, or subjective information, which may limit the application of conventional stochastic methods in predicting hydrogeologic conditions and associated uncertainty. Instead, redictions and uncertainty analysis can be made using uncertain input parameters expressed as probability boxes, intervals, and fuzzy numbers. The objective of this paper is to present the theory for, and a case study as an application of, the fuzzyprobabilistic approach, ombining probability and possibility theory for simulating soil water balance and assessing associated uncertainty in the components of a simple waterbalance equation. The application of this approach is demonstrated using calculations with the RAMAS Risk Calc code, to ssess the propagation of uncertainty in calculating potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and infiltration-in a case study at the Hanford site, Washington, USA. Propagation of uncertainty into the results of water-balance calculations was evaluated by hanging he types of models of uncertainty incorporated into various input parameters. The results of these fuzzy-probabilistic calculations are compared to the conventional Monte Carlo simulation approach and estimates from field observations at the Hanford site.

  8. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  9. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  10. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-09-22

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the 'Microbase' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  11. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB Veteran-Owned SB Service Disabled Vet. SB FY 2009 Dollars Goal (projected) $183,949,920 $82,690,000 $4,550,000 $8,829,596 $3,370,000 $5,025,000 $460,000 FY 2009 Dollars Accomplished $143,846,731 $68,174,398 $9,247,214 $11,333,905 $4,979,858 $6,713,791 $1,612,136 FY 2009 % Goal 45.0% 2.5% 4.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.25% FY

  12. Wellbore Integrity Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carey, James W.; Bachu, Stefan

    2012-06-21

    In this presentation, we review the current state of knowledge on wellbore integrity as developed in the IEA Greenhouse Gas Programme's Wellbore Integrity Network. Wells are one of the primary risks to the successful implementation of CO{sub 2} storage programs. Experimental studies show that wellbore materials react with CO{sub 2} (carbonation of cement and corrosion of steel) but the impact on zonal isolation is unclear. Field studies of wells in CO{sub 2}-bearing fields show that CO{sub 2} does migrate external to casing. However, rates and amounts of CO{sub 2} have not been quantified. At the decade time scale, wellbore integrity is driven by construction quality and geomechanical processes. Over longer time-scales (> 100 years), chemical processes (cement degradation and corrosion) become more important, but competing geomechanical processes may preserve wellbore integrity.

  13. Energy Systems Integration

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation—given at at the Fall 2012 Federal Utility Partnership Working Group (FUPWG) meeting—covers the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) and its capabilities.

  14. Systems Integration Competitive Awards

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the SunShot Systems Integration efforts, DOE is funding a range of research and development (R&D) projects to advance technology in four broad, inter-related areas: Grid Performance and...

  15. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  16. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  17. PEV Integration with Renewables (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Markel, T.

    2014-06-18

    This presentation discusses current research at NREL on integrating plug-in electric vehicles with the grid and using renewable energy to charge the grid. The Electric Vehicle Grid Integration (EVGI) and Integrated Network Testbed for Energy Grid Research and Technology Experimentation (INTEGRATE) are addressing the opportunities and technical requirements for vehicle grid integration that will increase marketability and lead to greater petroleum reduction.

  18. Technology Integration | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration Technology Integration 2011 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program, and Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Vehicle Technologies Plenary PDF icon vtpn02_smith_ti_2011_o.pdf More Documents & Publications Technology Integration Overview Technology Integration Overview Technology Integration Overview

  19. IDC Integrated Master Plan.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clifford, David J.; Harris, James M.

    2014-12-01

    This is the IDC Re-Engineering Phase 2 project Integrated Master Plan (IMP). The IMP presents the major accomplishments planned over time to re-engineer the IDC system. The IMP and the associate Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) are used for planning, scheduling, executing, and tracking the project technical work efforts. REVISIONS Version Date Author/Team Revision Description Authorized by V1.0 12/2014 IDC Re- engineering Project Team Initial delivery M. Harris

  20. integrated-transportation-models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Training Archive Integrated Transportation Models Workshop at ITM 2012 April 29, 2012 Hyatt Regency Tampa Hosted by: The Transportation Research and Analysis Computing Center at Argonne National Laboratory This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. The aim of the workshop was to provide an opportunity for researchers and practitioners to discuss recent research results that can support a wider application of integrated transportation models,

  1. Center for Integrated Nanotechnologies

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ADEPS » MPA » MPA-CINT Center for Integrated Nanotechnologies Nanomaterials integration is one of many approaches we take in addressing a range of challenges, from human health to national defense. Contact Us CINT Co-Director Quanxi Jia Email Deputy Group Leader Kristin Omberg Email Group Office (505) 667-9243 First in-situ images of void collapse in explosives Los Alamos researchers and collaborators demonstrated a crucial diagnostic for studying how voids affect explosives under shock

  2. Integrated and Engineered Systems

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Integrated and Engineered Systems Integrated and Engineered Systems National security depends on science and technology. The United States relies on Los Alamos National Laboratory for the best of both. No place on Earth pursues a broader array of world-class scientific endeavors. Contact thumbnail of Business Development Executive Miranda Intrator Business Development Executive Richard P. Feynmnan Center for Innovation (505) 665-8315 Email Engineers at Los Alamos create, design, and build the

  3. Integrating Program Component Executables

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Integrating Program Component Executables on Distributed Memory Architectures via MPH Chris Ding and Yun He Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA chqding@lbl.gov, yhe@lbl.gov Abstract A growing trend in developing large and complex ap- plications on today's Teraflop computers is to integrate stand-alone and/or semi-independent program components into a comprehensive simulation package. One example is the climate

  4. Integrative Genomics Building

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Integrative Genomics Building Community Berkeley Global Campus Environmental Documents Tours Community Programs Friends of Berkeley Lab ⇒ Navigate Section Community Berkeley Global Campus Environmental Documents Tours Community Programs Friends of Berkeley Lab Project Description The Integrative Genomics Building (IGB) is proposed to be an approximately 77,000 gsf, four-story research and office building constructed in the former Bevatron area - a fully developed site in the geographic

  5. Commercial Buildings Integration Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Buildings Integration Program Arah Schuur Program Manager arah.schuur@ee.doe.gov April 2, 2013 Building Technologies Office Program Peer Review 2 | Building Technologies Office eere.energy.gov Vision Commercial buildings are constructed, operated, renovated and transacted with energy performance in mind and net zero ready commercial buildings are common and cost-effective. Commercial Buildings Integration Program Mission Accelerate voluntary uptake of significant energy performance improvements

  6. Westinghouse Small Modular Reactor balance of plant and supporting systems design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Memmott, M. J.; Stansbury, C.; Taylor, C.

    2012-07-01

    The Westinghouse Small Modular Reactor (SMR) is an 800 MWt (>225 MWe) integral pressurized water reactor (iPWR), in which all of the components typically associated with the nuclear steam supply system (NSSS) of a nuclear power plant are incorporated within a single reactor pressure vessel. This paper is the second in a series of four papers which describe the design and functionality of the Westinghouse SMR. It focuses, in particular, upon the supporting systems and the balance of plant (BOP) designs of the Westinghouse SMR. Several Westinghouse SMR systems are classified as safety, and are critical to the safe operation of the Westinghouse SMR. These include the protection and monitoring system (PMS), the passive core cooling system (PXS), and the spent fuel cooling system (SFS) including pools, valves, and piping. The Westinghouse SMR safety related systems include the instrumentation and controls (I and C) as well as redundant and physically separated safety trains with batteries, electrical systems, and switch gears. Several other incorporated systems are non-safety related, but provide functions for plant operations including defense-in-depth functions. These include the chemical volume control system (CVS), heating, ventilation and cooling (HVAC) systems, component cooling water system (CCS), normal residual heat removal system (RNS) and service water system (SWS). The integrated performance of the safety-related and non-safety related systems ensures the safe and efficient operation of the Westinghouse SMR through various conditions and transients. The turbine island consists of the turbine, electric generator, feedwater and steam systems, moisture separation systems, and the condensers. The BOP is designed to minimize assembly time, shipping challenges, and on-site testing requirements for all structures, systems, and components. (authors)

  7. DIRECTIONS AND TIPS FOR USING INTEGRITY Accessing Integrity:

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    DIRECTIONS AND TIPS FOR USING INTEGRITY Accessing Integrity: The website address for Integrity is www.integrity.gov. When you get to the website, click on the yellow box labeled "Login to Integrity." Integrity is connected to the OMB MAX Central Authentication Service. Employees who have previously used OMB MAX should use their MAX user ID and password. Do not use the CIC or PIV login option. This is not enabled for DOE Integrity filers. If you used Integrity last year, you have an OMB

  8. Building America BEopt-CA (Ex): A Tool for Optimal Integration of EE, DR

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and PV in Existing California Homes | Department of Energy BEopt-CA (Ex): A Tool for Optimal Integration of EE, DR and PV in Existing California Homes Building America BEopt-CA (Ex): A Tool for Optimal Integration of EE, DR and PV in Existing California Homes This project targeted the development of a software tool, BEopt-CA (Ex) (Building Energy Optimization Tool for California Existing Homes), that aims to facilitate balanced integration of energy efficiency (EE), demand response (DR), and

  9. Procurement Integrity | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integrity Procurement Integrity PDF icon Procurement Integrity More Documents & Publications POLICY FLASH 2016-04 AcqGuide3pt1.doc� Chapter 3 - Improper Business Practices

  10. Analysis of reactor trips originating in balance of plant systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stetson, F.T.; Gallagher, D.W.; Le, P.T.; Ebert, M.W. )

    1990-09-01

    This report documents the results of an analysis of balance-of-plant (BOP) related reactor trips at commercial US nuclear power plants of a 5-year period, from January 1, 1984, through December 31, 1988. The study was performed for the Plant Systems Branch, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The objectives of the study were: to improve the level of understanding of BOP-related challenges to safety systems by identifying and categorizing such events; to prepare a computerized data base of BOP-related reactor trip events and use the data base to identify trends and patterns in the population of these events; to investigate the risk implications of BOP events that challenge safety systems; and to provide recommendations on how to address BOP-related concerns in regulatory context. 18 refs., 2 figs., 27 tabs.

  11. Integrated thermal treatment system study: Phase 1 results. Appendix B, Flow sheets and material balances: Volume 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Feizollahi, F.; Quapp, W.J.; Hempill, H.G.; Groffie, F.J.

    1994-07-01

    This document accompanies a full report which describes the testing and evaluation of ten different methods for incinerating mixed low-level radioactive wastes. It consists of flowsheets and diagrams of a rotary kiln, pyrolysis methods, a plasma furnace, a fixed hearth, and thermal desorption methods.

  12. Finding Balance Between Biological Groundwater Treatment and Treated Injection Water

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlson, Mark A.; Nielsen, Kellin R.; Byrnes, Mark E.; Simmons, Sally A.; Morse, John J.; Geiger, James B.; Watkins, Louis E.; McFee, Phillip M.; Martins, K.

    2015-01-14

    At the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site, CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company operates the 200 West Pump and Treat which was engineered to treat radiological and chemical contaminants in groundwater as a result of the site’s former plutonium production years. Fluidized bed bioreactors (FBRs) are used to remove nitrate, metals, and volatile organic compounds. Increasing nitrate concentrations in the treatment plant effluent and the presence of a slimy biomass (a typical microorganism response to stress) in the FBRs triggered an investigation of nutrient levels in the system. Little, if any, micronutrient feed was coming into the bioreactors. Additionally, carbon substrate (used to promote biological growth) was passing through to the injection wells, causing biological fouling of the wells and reduced specific injectivity. Adjustments to the micronutrient feed improved microorganism health, but the micronutrients were being overfed (particularly manganese) plugging the injection wells further. Injection well rehabilitation to restore specific injectivity required repeated treatments to remove the biological fouling and precipitated metal oxides. A combination of sulfamic and citric acids worked well to dissolve metal oxides and sodium hypochlorite effectively removed the biological growth. Intensive surging and development techniques successfully removed clogging material from the injection wells. Ultimately, the investigation and nutrient adjustments took months to restore proper balance to the microbial system and over a year to stabilize injection well capacities. Carefully tracking and managing the FBRs and well performance monitoring are critical to balancing the needs of the treatment system while reducing fouling mechanisms in the injection wells.

  13. Integrity Automotive | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Product: Joint venture between Kentucky businessman Randal Waldman of Integrity Manufacturing and California-based electric car maker Zap. References: Integrity Automotive1...

  14. Washington: Integrated Transportation Programs & Coordinated...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integrated Transportation Programs & Coordinated Regional Planning Washington: Integrated Transportation Programs & Coordinated Regional Planning November 6, 2013 - 5:42pm Addthis ...

  15. A new load-balancing strategy for the solution of dynamical large-tree

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    search problems using a hierarchical approach (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Journal Article: A new load-balancing strategy for the solution of dynamical large-tree search problems using a hierarchical approach Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A new load-balancing strategy for the solution of dynamical large-tree search problems using a hierarchical approach We describe a new load-balancing strategy, applied here to the protein conformational search problem, for improving the

  16. Partially integrated exhaust manifold

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hayman, Alan W; Baker, Rodney E

    2015-01-20

    A partially integrated manifold assembly is disclosed which improves performance, reduces cost and provides efficient packaging of engine components. The partially integrated manifold assembly includes a first leg extending from a first port and terminating at a mounting flange for an exhaust gas control valve. Multiple additional legs (depending on the total number of cylinders) are integrally formed with the cylinder head assembly and extend from the ports of the associated cylinder and terminate at an exit port flange. These additional legs are longer than the first leg such that the exit port flange is spaced apart from the mounting flange. This configuration provides increased packaging space adjacent the first leg for any valving that may be required to control the direction and destination of exhaust flow in recirculation to an EGR valve or downstream to a catalytic converter.

  17. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  18. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  19. Bayesian Integrated Microbial Forensics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jarman, Kristin H.; Kreuzer-Martin, Helen W.; Wunschel, David S.; Valentine, Nancy B.; Cliff, John B.; Petersen, Catherine E.; Colburn, Heather A.; Wahl, Karen L.

    2008-06-01

    In the aftermath of the 2001 anthrax letters, researchers have been exploring ways to predict the production environment of unknown source microorganisms. Different mass spectral techniques are being developed to characterize components of a microbe’s culture medium including water, carbon and nitrogen sources, metal ions added, and the presence of agar. Individually, each technique has the potential to identify one or two ingredients in a culture medium recipe. However, by integrating data from multiple mass spectral techniques, a more complete characterization is possible. We present a Bayesian statistical approach to integrated microbial forensics and illustrate its application on spores grown in different culture media.

  20. Smart Grid Integration Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Troxell, Wade

    2011-12-22

    The initial federal funding for the Colorado State University Smart Grid Integration Laboratory is through a Congressionally Directed Project (CDP), DE-OE0000070 Smart Grid Integration Laboratory. The original program requested in three one-year increments for staff acquisition, curriculum development, and instrumentation all which will benefit the Laboratory. This report focuses on the initial phase of staff acquisition which was directed and administered by DOE NETL/ West Virginia under Project Officer Tom George. Using this CDP funding, we have developed the leadership and intellectual capacity for the SGIC. This was accomplished by investing (hiring) a core team of Smart Grid Systems engineering faculty focused on education, research, and innovation of a secure and smart grid infrastructure. The Smart Grid Integration Laboratory will be housed with the separately funded Integrid Laboratory as part of CSU's overall Smart Grid Integration Center (SGIC). The period of performance of this grant was 10/1/2009 to 9/30/2011 which included one no cost extension due to time delays in faculty hiring. The Smart Grid Integration Laboratory's focus is to build foundations to help graduate and undergraduates acquire systems engineering knowledge; conduct innovative research; and team externally with grid smart organizations. Using the results of the separately funded Smart Grid Workforce Education Workshop (May 2009) sponsored by the City of Fort Collins, Northern Colorado Clean Energy Cluster, Colorado State University Continuing Education, Spirae, and Siemens has been used to guide the hiring of faculty, program curriculum and education plan. This project develops faculty leaders with the intellectual capacity to inspire its students to become leaders that substantially contribute to the development and maintenance of Smart Grid infrastructure through topics such as: (1) Distributed energy systems modeling and control; (2) Energy and power conversion; (3) Simulation of electrical power distribution system that integrates significant quantities of renewable and distributed energy resources; (4) System dynamic modeling that considers end-user behavior, economics, security and regulatory frameworks; (5) Best practices for energy management IT control solutions for effective distributed energy integration (including security with the underlying physical power systems); (6) Experimental verification of effects of various arrangements of renewable generation, distributed generation and user load types along with conventional generation and transmission. Understanding the core technologies for enabling them to be used in an integrated fashion within a distribution network remains is a benefit to the future energy paradigm and future and present energy engineers.

  1. Integrated heterodyne terahertz transceiver

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wanke, Michael C. (Albuquerque, NM); Lee, Mark (Albuquerque, NM); Nordquist, Christopher D. (Albuquerque, NM); Cich, Michael J. (Albuquerque, NM)

    2012-09-25

    A heterodyne terahertz transceiver comprises a quantum cascade laser that is integrated on-chip with a Schottky diode mixer. A terahertz signal can be received by an antenna connected to the mixer, an end facet or sidewall of the laser, or through a separate active section that can amplify the incident signal. The quantum cascade laser couples terahertz local oscillator power to the Schottky diode to mix with the received terahertz signal to provide an intermediate frequency output signal. The fully integrated transceiver optimizes power efficiency, sensitivity, compactness, and reliability. The transceiver can be used in compact, fieldable systems covering a wide variety of deployable applications not possible with existing technology.

  2. Integrated heterodyne terahertz transceiver

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lee, Mark (Albuquerque, NM); Wanke, Michael C. (Albuquerque, NM)

    2009-06-23

    A heterodyne terahertz transceiver comprises a quantum cascade laser that is integrated on-chip with a Schottky diode mixer. An antenna connected to the Schottky diode receives a terahertz signal. The quantum cascade laser couples terahertz local oscillator power to the Schottky diode to mix with the received terahertz signal to provide an intermediate frequency output signal. The fully integrated transceiver optimizes power efficiency, sensitivity, compactness, and reliability. The transceiver can be used in compact, fieldable systems covering a wide variety of deployable applications not possible with existing technology.

  3. Relationship Between Wind Generation and Balancing Energy Market Prices in ERCOT: 2007-2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nicholson, E.; Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2010-11-01

    This paper attempts to measure the average marginal effects of wind generation on the balancing-energy market price in ERCOT with the help of econometric analysis.

  4. Seasonality in the Natural Gas Balancing Item: Historical Trends and Corrective Measures

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    This special report examines an underlying cause of the seasonal pattern in the balancing item published in the Natural Gas Monthly.

  5. Low Temperature Fuel Cell and Electrolyzer Balance-of-Plant Manufactur...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Fuel Cell and Electrolyzer Balance-of-Plant Manufacturing Needs Low Temperature Fuel Cell ... DC, August 11-12, 2011. PDF icon Low Temperature Fuel Cell and Electrolyzer ...

  6. Integrated assessment of global warming

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ott, K.O.

    1996-12-31

    The anomalies of sea surface temperatures, which show a warming trend since the 1850s through the decade 1960/70 of {Delta}SST {approximately} 0.3 C, are complemented by changes of the ground surface temperature ({Delta}GST). The global surface temperature change, based on these data, allows an integrated assessment of the associated increase in black-body irradiance and a comparison with the enhanced greenhouse-gas back-scattering. Information on the GST history is obtained from unfolding analyses of underground temperature distributions measured in 90 boreholes in Alaskan permafrost and Canadian bedrock. These analyses show GST increases ({Delta}GST) since the 19th century through 1960/70 of 3 C on average, with standard deviations of +1.8 C and {minus}0.9 C on the high and low end respectively. The onset of the warming trend, which is uncertain in the GST data, is timed more accurately by detailed length records of large valley glaciers in the US and the Alps. Evaluation of the heat capacities and heat transfer indicates that the temperature response to an increase in radiative forcing must be much larger on land than on the sea. Conversely, the observed large ratio of {Delta}GST and {Delta}SST can only be explained by increased radiative forcing. From 1960/70 through the warmest decade on record, 1980/90, global {Delta}SST and {Delta}SAT have further increased to 0.6 C and 0.8 C respectively, But, the most recent GST data are not accurate enough to extend the comparison through 1990. Calculation of the increase of radiative forcing from back-scattering of greenhouse gases for 1850 to 1970 yields 1.3 W/cm{sup 2}. The increase in black-body irradiance from 3.6 C warming on land and 0.3 C on sea provides the required balance. The warming on land of 3.6 C is larger than the average value of 3.0 C, but well within the observed range.

  7. Technology solutions for wind integration in ERCOT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2015-01-03

    Texas has for more than a decade led all other states in the U.S. with the most wind generation capacity on the U.S. electric grid. The State recognized the value that wind energy could provide, and committed early on to build out the transmission system necessary to move power from the windy regions in West Texas to the major population centers across the state. It also signaled support for renewables on the grid by adopting an aggressive renewable portfolio standard (RPS). The joining of these conditions with favorable Federal tax credits has driven the rapid growth in Texas wind capacity since its small beginning in 2000. In addition to the major transmission grid upgrades, there have been a number of technology and policy improvements that have kept the grid reliable while adding more and more intermittent wind generation. Technology advancements such as better wind forecasting and deployment of a nodal market system have improved the grid efficiency of wind. Successful large scale wind integration into the electric grid, however, continues to pose challenges. The continuing rapid growth in wind energy calls for a number of technology additions that will be needed to reliably accommodate an expected 65% increase in future wind resources. The Center for the Commercialization of Electric Technologies (CCET) recognized this technology challenge in 2009 when it submitted an application for funding of a regional demonstration project under the Recovery Act program administered by the U.S. Department of Energy1. Under that program the administration announced the largest energy grid modernization investment in U.S. history, making available some $3.4 billion in grants to fund development of a broad range of technologies for a more efficient and reliable electric system, including the growth of renewable energy sources like wind and solar. At that time, Texas was (and still is) the nation’s leader in the integration of wind into the grid, and was investing heavily in the infrastructure needed to increase the viability of this important resource. To help Texas and the rest of the nation address the challenges associated with the integration of large amounts of renewables, CCET seized on the federal opportunity to undertake a multi-faceted project aimed at demonstrating the viability of new “smart grid” technologies to facilitate larger amounts of wind energy through better system monitoring capabilities, enhanced operator visualization, and improved load management. In early 2010, CCET was awarded a $27 million grant, half funded by the Department of Energy and half-funded by project participants. With this funding, CCET undertook the project named Discovery Across Texas which has demonstrated how existing and new technologies can better integrate wind power into the state’s grid. The following pages summarize the results of seven technology demonstrations that will help Texas and the nation meet this wind integration challenge.

  8. Biochemical Platform Processing Integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2006-06-01

    The objective of this project is to facilitate deployment of enzyme-based biomass conversion technology. The immediate goal is to explore integration issues that impact process performance and to demonstrate improved performance of the lower-cost enzymes being developed by Genencor and Novozymes.

  9. Integrated Safety Management

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-04-25

    The order ensures that DOE/NNSA, systematically integrates safety into management and work practices at all levels, so that missions are accomplished efficiently while protecting the workers, the public, and the environment. Supersedes DOE M 450.4-1 and DOE M 411.1-1C

  10. Integrated Landscape Management

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    March 23, 2015 Ian Bonner Idaho National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information Sustainability Technology Area 4.2.1.20 Integrated Landscape Management 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office PROJECT GOAL * OBJECTIVE - Develop model based innovative landscape design methods that estimate increased biomass availability, improve soil, water, and air quality, and reduce grower losses through subfield management decisions.

  11. Integrated Safety Management (ISM)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Integrated Safety Management provides a platform for active sharing of the ISM-related documents, tools, and processes being utilized across the Department to accomplish the goals of ISM. You'll find archival documents and procedures as well as information on the very latest innovative approaches being undertaken to improve safety management.

  12. Bioluminescent bioreporter integrated circuit

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Simpson, Michael L. (Knoxville, TN); Sayler, Gary S. (Blaine, TN); Paulus, Michael J. (Knoxville, TN)

    2000-01-01

    Disclosed are monolithic bioelectronic devices comprising a bioreporter and an OASIC. These bioluminescent bioreporter integrated circuit are useful in detecting substances such as pollutants, explosives, and heavy-metals residing in inhospitable areas such as groundwater, industrial process vessels, and battlefields. Also disclosed are methods and apparatus for environmental pollutant detection, oil exploration, drug discovery, industrial process control, and hazardous chemical monitoring.

  13. Integrating Electricity Subsector

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology 3002001181 | DEC 2013 Program Leads Jason D. Christopher Technical Lead, Cyber Security Capabilities & Risk Management Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) Annabelle Lee Senior Technical Executive, Cyber Security Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) For more information on the DOE's cyber security risk management programs, please contact

  14. Integrated Safety Management Policy

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-04-25

    The policy establishes DOE's expectation for safety, including integrated safety management that will enable the Department’s mission goals to be accomplished efficiently while ensuring safe operations at all departmental facilities and activities. Supersedes DOE P 450.4, DOE P 411.1, DOE P 441.1, DOE P 450.2A, and DOE P 450.7

  15. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  16. Demand forecasting and revenue requirements, with implications for consideration in British Columbia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acton, J.P.

    1983-05-01

    This paper was filed as an exhibit on behalf of The Consumers' Association of Canada (B.C. Branch), The Federated Anti-Poverty Groups of B.C., The Sierra Club of Western Canada, and the B.C. Old Age Pensioners' Organization. It was subjected to cross-examination on October 29, 1982, during Phase I of the hearings. The Utilities Commission had designated Phase I for consideration of (1) demand, (2) assets in service, (3) revenue requirements excluding return, and (4) financing and capital requirements. This paper presents a general discussion of the elements of a rate structure and their relationship to the demand for electricity, a systematic review of some 50 empirical studies of the demand for electricity as a function of price and other factors by the three principal classes of customers, and a discussion of the notion of revenue requirements. The paper should be of interest to utility regulators, rate specialists, and forecasters for its review of demand models and to academics concerned with the study of energy demand.

  17. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  18. Modeling hydro power plants in deregulated electricity markets : integration and application of EMCAS and VALORAGUA.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thimmapuram, P.; Veselka, T.; Koritarov, V.; Vilela, S.; Pereira, R.; Silva, R.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we present details of integrating an agent-based model, Electricity Market Complex Adaptive System (EMCAS) with a hydro-thermal coordination model, VALORAGUA. EMCAS provides a framework for simulating deregulated markets with flexible regulatory structure along with bidding strategies for supply offers and demand bids. VALORAGUA provides longer-term operation plans by optimizing hydro and thermal power plant operation for the entire year. In addition, EMCAS uses the price forecasts and weekly hydro schedules from VALORAGUA to provide intra-week hydro plant optimization for hourly supply offers. The integrated model is then applied to the Iberian electricity market which includes about 111 thermal plants and 38 hydro power plants. We then analyze the impact of hydro plant supply offers on the market prices and ways to minimize the Gencospsila exposure to price risk.

  19. Development of an Immersed Boundary Method to Resolve Complex Terrain in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lunquist, K A; Chow, F K; Lundquist, J K; Mirocha, J D

    2007-09-04

    Flow and dispersion processes in urban areas are profoundly influenced by the presence of buildings which divert mean flow, affect surface heating and cooling, and alter the structure of turbulence in the lower atmosphere. Accurate prediction of velocity, temperature, and turbulent kinetic energy fields are necessary for determining the transport and dispersion of scalars. Correct predictions of scalar concentrations are vital in densely populated urban areas where they are used to aid in emergency response planning for accidental or intentional releases of hazardous substances. Traditionally, urban flow simulations have been performed by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes which can accommodate the geometric complexity inherent to urban landscapes. In these types of models the grid is aligned with the solid boundaries, and the boundary conditions are applied to the computational nodes coincident with the surface. If the CFD code uses a structured curvilinear mesh, then time-consuming manual manipulation is needed to ensure that the mesh conforms to the solid boundaries while minimizing skewness. If the CFD code uses an unstructured grid, then the solver cannot be optimized for the underlying data structure which takes an irregular form. Unstructured solvers are therefore often slower and more memory intensive than their structured counterparts. Additionally, urban-scale CFD models are often forced at lateral boundaries with idealized flow, neglecting dynamic forcing due to synoptic scale weather patterns. These CFD codes solve the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations and include limited options for representing atmospheric processes such as surface fluxes and moisture. Traditional CFD codes therefore posses several drawbacks, due to the expense of either creating the grid or solving the resulting algebraic system of equations, and due to the idealized boundary conditions and the lack of full atmospheric physics. Meso-scale atmospheric boundary layer simulations, on the other hand, are performed by numerical weather prediction (NWP) codes, which cannot handle the geometry of the urban landscape, but do provide a more complete representation of atmospheric physics. NWP codes typically use structured grids with terrain-following vertical coordinates, include a full suite of atmospheric physics parameterizations, and allow for dynamic synoptic scale lateral forcing through grid nesting. Terrain following grids are unsuitable for urban terrain, as steep terrain gradients cause extreme distortion of the computational cells. In this work, we introduce and develop an immersed boundary method (IBM) to allow the favorable properties of a numerical weather prediction code to be combined with the ability to handle complex terrain. IBM uses a non-conforming structured grid, and allows solid boundaries to pass through the computational cells. As the terrain passes through the mesh in an arbitrary manner, the main goal of the IBM is to apply the boundary condition on the interior of the domain as accurately as possible. With the implementation of the IBM, numerical weather prediction codes can be used to explicitly resolve urban terrain. Heterogeneous urban domains using the IBM can be nested into larger mesoscale domains using a terrain-following coordinate. The larger mesoscale domain provides lateral boundary conditions to the urban domain with the correct forcing, allowing seamless integration between mesoscale and urban scale models. Further discussion of the scope of this project is given by Lundquist et al. [2007]. The current paper describes the implementation of an IBM into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open source numerical weather prediction code. The WRF model solves the non-hydrostatic compressible Navier-Stokes equations, and employs an isobaric terrain-following vertical coordinate. Many types of IB methods have been developed by researchers; a comprehensive review can be found in Mittal and Iaccarino [2005]. To the authors knowledge, this is the first IBM approach that is able to

  20. Systems Integration | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Systems Integration Systems Integration The breadth and complexity of the overall Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program RD&D effort, as well as the interaction of program elements, requires an integrated approach to reduce risk and maximize the potential for success. The focus of systems integration is to understand the complex interactions among program areas, components, and the tradeoffs between them. Systems Integration ensures all requirements are being addressed, tracks and measures the

  1. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  2. Oxalate Mass Balance During Chemical Cleaning in Tank 5F

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poirier, M.; Fink, S.

    2011-07-08

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) is preparing Tank 5F for closure. The first step in preparing the tank for closure is mechanical sludge removal. Following mechanical sludge removal, SRS performed chemical cleaning with oxalic acid to remove the sludge heel. Personnel are currently assessing the effectiveness of the chemical cleaning to determine whether the tank is ready for closure. SRS personnel collected liquid samples during chemical cleaning and submitted them to Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) for analysis. Following chemical cleaning, they collected a solid sample (also known as 'process sample') and submitted it to SRNL for analysis. The authors analyzed these samples to assess the effectiveness of the chemical cleaning process. Analysis of the anions showed the measured oxalate removed from Tank 5F to be approximately 50% of the amount added in the oxalic acid. To close the oxalate mass balance, the author collected solid samples, leached them with nitric acid, and measured the concentration of cations and anions in the leachate.

  3. Large-amplitude solitons in gravitationally balanced quantum plasmas

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Akbari-Moghanjoughi, M.

    2014-08-15

    Using the quantum fluid model for self-gravitating quantum plasmas with the Bernoulli pseudopotential method and taking into account the relativistic degeneracy effect, it is shown that gravity-induced large-amplitude density rarefaction solitons can exist in gravitationally balanced quantum plasmas. These nonlinear solitons are generated due to the force imbalance between the gravity and the quantum fluid pressure via local density perturbations, similar to that on shallow waters. It is found that both the fluid mass-density and the atomic-number of the constituent ions have significant effect on the amplitude and width of these solitonic profiles. Existence of a large-scale gravity-induced solitonic activities on neutron-star surface, for instance, can be a possible explanation for the recently proposed resonant shattering mechanism [D. Tsang et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 108, 011102 (2012)] causing the intense short gamma ray burst phenomenon, in which release of ?10{sup 46}–10{sup 47} ergs would be possible from the surface. The resonant shattering of the crust in a neutron star has been previously attributed to the crust-core interface mode and the tidal surface tensions. We believe that current model can be a more natural explanation for the energy liberation by solitonic activities on the neutron star surfaces, without a requirement for external mergers like other neutron stars or black holes for the crustal shatter.

  4. Integrated turbomachine oxygen plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anand, Ashok Kumar; DePuy, Richard Anthony; Muthaiah, Veerappan

    2014-06-17

    An integrated turbomachine oxygen plant includes a turbomachine and an air separation unit. One or more compressor pathways flow compressed air from a compressor through one or more of a combustor and a turbine expander to cool the combustor and/or the turbine expander. An air separation unit is operably connected to the one or more compressor pathways and is configured to separate the compressed air into oxygen and oxygen-depleted air. A method of air separation in an integrated turbomachine oxygen plant includes compressing a flow of air in a compressor of a turbomachine. The compressed flow of air is flowed through one or more of a combustor and a turbine expander of the turbomachine to cool the combustor and/or the turbine expander. The compressed flow of air is directed to an air separation unit and is separated into oxygen and oxygen-depleted air.

  5. Transmission Grid Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Transmission Grid Integration - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs

  6. integrated-land-use

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    An Integrated Land Use and Transportation Planning Tool for Sydney, Australia Dr. Matthew Berryman, University of Wollongong Monday, November 28, 2011 - 1pm Argonne TRACC Building 222, Room D-233 The SMART Infrastructure Facility at the University of Wollongong, Australia, has been building an agent-based model to explore the feedbacks between transportation and land use. We focus on livability as a key driver of agent's location choice, and in addition to transport we include factors such as:

  7. Commercial Buildings Integration

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Buildings Integration Images courtesy CREE, True Manufacturing, A.O. Smith, Bernstein Associates, Cambridge Engineering, Alliance Laundry Systems, NREL 2 Strategic Fit within Building Technologies Office 3 4 In the U.S., packaged units: * condition 40 billion square feet of the commercial building floor space * consume 2,100 trillion Btu of primary energy annually Many RTUs are past their typical life span, functioning at much lower efficiency levels than new units, and are ready to be replaced.

  8. Integrated Safety Management Policy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    INTEGRATED SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM DESCRIPTION U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Office of Environmental Management Headquarters May 2008 Preparation: Braj K. sin& Occupational Safety and Health Manager Office of Safety Management Concurrence: Chuan-Fu wu Director, Offlce of Safety Management Deputy Assistant Secretary for safe& Management andoperations Operations Officer for 1 Environmental Management Approval: Date p/-g Date Environmental Management TABLE OF CONTENTS

  9. Performance of the Lead-Alloy Cooled Concept Balanced for Actinide Burning and Electricity Production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pavel Hejzlar; Cliff Davis

    2004-09-01

    A lead-bismuth-cooled fast reactor concept targeted for a balanced mission of actinide burning and low-cost electricity production is proposed and its performance analyzed. The design explores the potential benefits of thorium-based fuel in actinide-burning cores, in particular in terms of the reduction of the large reactivity swing and enhancement of the small Doppler coefficient typical of fertile-free actinide burners. Reduced electricity production cost is pursued through a longer cycle length than that used for fertile-free burners and thus a higher capacity factor. It is shown that the concept can achieve a high transuranics destruction rate, which is only 20% lower than that of an accelerator-driven system with fertile-free fuel. The small negative fuel temperature reactivity coefficient, small positive coolant temperature reactivity coefficient, and negative core radial expansion coefficient provide self-regulating characteristics so that the reactor is capable of inherent shutdown during major transients without scram, as in the Integral Fast Reactor. This is confirmed by thermal-hydraulic analysis of several transients without scram, including primary coolant pump trip, station blackout, and reactivity step insertion, which showed that the reactor was able to meet all identified thermal limits. However, the benefits of high actinide consumption and small reactivity swing can be attained only if the uranium from the discharged fuel is separated and not recycled. This additional uranium separation step and thorium reprocessing significantly increase the fuel cycle costs. Because the higher fuel cycle cost has a larger impact on the overall cost of electricity than the savings from the higher capacity factor afforded through use of thorium, this concept appears less promising than the fertile-free actinide burners.

  10. Performance of the Lead-Alloy-Cooled Reactor Concept Balanced for Actinide Burning and Electricity Production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejzlar, Pavel [Massachusetts Institute of Technology (United States); Davis, Cliff B. [Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (United States)

    2004-09-15

    A lead-bismuth-cooled fast reactor concept targeted for a balanced mission of actinide burning and low-cost electricity production is proposed and its performance analyzed. The design explores the potential benefits of thorium-based fuel in actinide-burning cores, in particular in terms of the reduction of the large reactivity swing and enhancement of the small Doppler coefficient typical of fertile-free actinide burners. Reduced electricity production cost is pursued through a longer cycle length than that used for fertile-free burners and thus a higher capacity factor. It is shown that the concept can achieve a high transuranics destruction rate, which is only 20% lower than that of an accelerator-driven system with fertile-free fuel. The small negative fuel temperature reactivity coefficient, small positive coolant temperature reactivity coefficient, and negative core radial expansion coefficient provide self-regulating characteristics so that the reactor is capable of inherent shutdown during major transients without scram, as in the Integral Fast Reactor. This is confirmed by thermal-hydraulic analysis of several transients without scram, including primary coolant pump trip, station blackout, and reactivity step insertion, which showed that the reactor was able to meet all identified thermal limits. However, the benefits of high actinide consumption and small reactivity swing can be attained only if the uranium from the discharged fuel is separated and not recycled. This additional uranium separation step and thorium reprocessing significantly increase the fuel cycle costs. Because the higher fuel cycle cost has a larger impact on the overall cost of electricity than the savings from the higher capacity factor afforded through use of thorium, this concept appears less promising than the fertile-free actinide burners.

  11. Integrative Bioengineering Institute

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eddington, David; Magin,L,Richard; Hetling, John; Cho, Michael

    2009-01-09

    Microfabrication enables many exciting experimental possibilities for medicine and biology that are not attainable through traditional methods. However, in order for microfabricated devices to have an impact they must not only provide a robust solution to a current unmet need, but also be simple enough to seamlessly integrate into standard protocols. Broad dissemination of bioMEMS has been stymied by the common aim of replacing established and well accepted protocols with equally or more complex devices, methods, or materials. The marriage of a complex, difficult to fabricate bioMEMS device with a highly variable biological system is rarely successful. Instead, the design philosophy of my lab aims to leverage a beneficial microscale phenomena (e.g. fast diffusion at the microscale) within a bioMEMS device and adapt to established methods (e.g. multiwell plate cell culture) and demonstrate a new paradigm for the field (adapt instead of replace). In order for the field of bioMEMS to mature beyond novel proof-of-concept demonstrations, researchers must focus on developing systems leveraging these phenomena and integrating into standard labs, which have largely been ignored. Towards this aim, the Integrative Bioengineering Institute has been established.

  12. Dual shell pressure balanced reactor vessel. Final project report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robertus, R.J.; Fassbender, A.G.

    1994-10-01

    The Department of Energy`s Office of Energy Research (OER) has previously provided support for the development of several chemical processes, including supercritical water oxidation, liquefaction, and aqueous hazardous waste destruction, where chemical and phase transformations are conducted at high pressure and temperature. These and many other commercial processes require a pressure vessel capable of operating in a corrosive environment where safety and economy are important requirements. Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) engineers have recently developed and patented (U.S. patent 5,167,930 December 1, 1992) a concept for a novel Dual Shell Pressure Balanced Vessel (DSPBV) which could solve a number of these problems. The technology could be immediately useful in continuing commercialization of an R&D 100 award-winning technology, Sludge-to-oil Reactor System (STORS), originally developed through funding by OER. Innotek Corporation is a small business that would be one logical end-user of the DSPBV reactor technology. Innotek is working with several major U.S. engineering firms to evaluate the potential of this technology in the disposal of wastes from sewage treatment plants. PNL entered into a CRADA with Innotek to build a bench-scale demonstration reactor and test the system to advance the economic feasibility of a variety of high pressure chemical processes. Hydrothermal processing of corrosive substances on a large scale can now be made significantly safer and more economical through use of the DSPBV. Hydrothermal chemical reactions such as wet-air oxidation and supercritical water oxidation occur in a highly corrosive environment inside a pressure vessel. Average corrosion rates from 23 to 80 miles per year have been reported by Rice (1994) and Latanision (1993).

  13. Study of a double bubbler for material balance in liquids

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hugues Lambert

    2013-09-01

    The objective of this project was to determine the potential of a double bubbler to measure density and fluid level of the molten salt contained in an electrorefiner. Such in-situ real-time measurements can provide key information for material balances in the pyroprocessing of the nuclear spent fuel. This theoretical study showed this technique has a lot of promise. Four different experiments were designed and performed. The first three experiments studied the influence of a variety of factors such as depth difference between the two tubes, gas flow rate, the radius of the tubes and determining the best operating conditions. The last experiment purpose was to determine the precision and accuracy of the apparatus during specific conditions. The elected operating conditions for the characterization of the system were a difference of depth of 25 cm and a flow rate of 55 ml/min in each tube. The measured densities were between 1,000 g/l and 1,400g/l and the level between 34cm and 40 cm. The depth difference between the tubes is critical, the larger, the better. The experiments showed that the flow rate should be the same in each tube. The concordances with theoretical predictions were very good. The density precision was very satisfying (spread<0.1%) and the accuracy was about 1%. For the level determination, the precision was also very satisfying (spread<0.1%), but the accuracy was about 3%. However, those two biases could be corrected with calibration curves. In addition to the aqueous systems studied in the present work, future work will focus on examining the behavior of the double bubbler instrumentation in molten salt systems. The two main challenges which were identified in this work are the effect of the temperature and the variation of the superficial tension.

  14. Sustainable and Holistic Integration of Energy Storage and Solar...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    loads (such as optimized operation of HVAC systems and other appliances) Enable demand response Incorporate solar and load forecasting into decisions Be interoperable internally ...

  15. Density functional with full exact exchange, balanced nonlocality of correlations, and constraint satisfaction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tao, Jianmin; Perdew, John P; Staroverov, Viktor N; Scuseria, Gustavo E

    2008-01-01

    We construct a nonlocal density functional approximation with full exact exchange, while preserving the constraint-satisfaction approach and justified error cancellations of simpler semilocal functionals. This is achieved by interpolating between different approximations suitable for two extreme regions of the electron density. In a 'normal' region, the exact exchange-correlation hole density around an electron is semilocal because its spatial range is reduced by correlation and because it integrates over a narrow range to -1. These regions are well described by popular semilocal approximations (many of which have been constructed nonempirically), because of proper accuracy for a slowly-varying density or because of error cancellation between exchange and correlation. 'Abnormal' regions, where non locality is unveiled, include those in which exchange can dominate correlation (one-electron, nonuniform high-density, and rapidly-varying limits), and those open subsystems of fluctuating electron number over which the exact exchange-correlation hole integrates to a value greater than -1. Regions between these extremes are described by a hybrid functional mixing exact and semi local exchange energy densities locally (i.e., with a mixing fraction that is a function of position r and a functional of the density). Because our mixing fraction tends to 1 in the high-density limit, we employ full exact exchange according to the rigorous definition of the exchange component of any exchange-correlation energy functional. Use of full exact exchange permits the satisfaction of many exact constraints, but the nonlocality of exchange also requires balanced nonlocality of correlation. We find that this nonlocality can demand at least five empirical parameters (corresponding roughly to the four kinds of abnormal regions). Our local hybrid functional is perhaps the first accurate size-consistent density functional with full exact exchange. It satisfies other known exact constraints, including exactness for all one-electron densities, and provides an excellent, fit 1.0 the 223 molecular enthalpies of formation of the G3/99 set and the 42 reaction barrier heights of the BH42/03 set, improving both (but especially the latter) over most semilocal functionals and global hybrids. Exact constraints, physical insights, and paradigm examples hopefully suppress 'overfitting'.

  16. High Efficiency Integrated Package

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ibbetson, James

    2013-09-15

    Solid-state lighting based on LEDs has emerged as a superior alternative to inefficient conventional lighting, particularly incandescent. LED lighting can lead to 80 percent energy savings; can last 50,000 hours – 2-50 times longer than most bulbs; and contains no toxic lead or mercury. However, to enable mass adoption, particularly at the consumer level, the cost of LED luminaires must be reduced by an order of magnitude while achieving superior efficiency, light quality and lifetime. To become viable, energy-efficient replacement solutions must deliver system efficacies of ? 100 lumens per watt (LPW) with excellent color rendering (CRI > 85) at a cost that enables payback cycles of two years or less for commercial applications. This development will enable significant site energy savings as it targets commercial and retail lighting applications that are most sensitive to the lifetime operating costs with their extended operating hours per day. If costs are reduced substantially, dramatic energy savings can be realized by replacing incandescent lighting in the residential market as well. In light of these challenges, Cree proposed to develop a multi-chip integrated LED package with an output of > 1000 lumens of warm white light operating at an efficacy of at least 128 LPW with a CRI > 85. This product will serve as the light engine for replacement lamps and luminaires. At the end of the proposed program, this integrated package was to be used in a proof-of-concept lamp prototype to demonstrate the component’s viability in a common form factor. During this project Cree SBTC developed an efficient, compact warm-white LED package with an integrated remote color down-converter. Via a combination of intensive optical, electrical, and thermal optimization, a package design was obtained that met nearly all project goals. This package emitted 1295 lm under instant-on, room-temperature testing conditions, with an efficacy of 128.4 lm/W at a color temperature of ~2873K and 83 CRI. As such, the package’s performance exceeds DOE’s warm-white phosphor LED efficacy target for 2013. At the end of the program, we assembled an A19 sized demonstration bulb housing the integrated package which met Energy Star intensity variation requirements. With further development to reduce overall component cost, we anticipate that an integrated remote converter package such as developed during this program will find application in compact, high-efficacy LED-based lamps, particularly those requiring omnidirectional emission.

  17. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Oahu Wind Integration and

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Transmission Study Oahu Wind Integration and Transmission Study The Oahu Wind Integration and Transmission Study examined the integration of renewable energy as part of the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative's Energy Agreement. The agreement includes a commitment to integrate up to 400 megawatts (MW) of offshore wind energy from Molokai or Lanai and transmit it to Oahu via undersea cable systems. The Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative also includes an aggressive mandate for the state of Hawaii to

  18. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Wind Integration National Dataset

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    (WIND) Toolkit Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Obtain the WIND Toolkit Please note: the WIND Toolkit is simulated wind power data to be used in renewable integration studies. Please read the associated validation reports and use the data appropriately. The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit is an update and expansion of the Eastern and Western Wind Datasets, and is intended to support the next generation of integration studies. The WIND Toolkit includes

  19. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  20. Integrated Deployment and the Energy Systems Integration Facility: Workshop Proceedings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kroposki, B.; Werner, M.; Spikes, A.; Komomua, C.

    2013-01-01

    This report summarizes the workshop entitled: Integrated Deployment and the Energy Systems Integration Facility. In anticipation of the opening of the ESIF, NREL held the workshop August 21-23, 2012 and invited participants from utilities, government, industry, and academia to discuss renewable integration challenges and discover new ways to meet them by taking advantage of the ESIF's capabilities.