Sample records for average absolute forecast

  1. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  2. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    the chance of winds high enough to pose dangers for boats or aircraft. In situations calling for a cost/loss analysis, the probabilities of different outcomes need to be known. For wind speed, this issue often arisesProbabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc

  3. Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    February 24, 2006 1J. McLean Sloughter is Graduate Research Assistant, Adrian E. Raftery is BlumsteinProbabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging J. McLean Sloughter, Adrian E. Raftery and Tilmann Gneiting 1 Department of Statistics, University of Washington

  4. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    : J. McLean Sloughter, Department of Mathematics, Seattle University, 901 12th Ave., P.O. Box 222000Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN SLOUGHTER Seattle University, Seattle, Washington TILMANN GNEITING Heidelberg University, Heidelberg

  5. Absolute Percent Error Based Fitness Functions for Evolving Forecast Models AndyNovobilski,Ph.D.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Thomas

    Absolute Percent Error Based Fitness Functions for Evolving Forecast Models Andy computfi~gas a methodof data mining,is its intrinsic ability to drive modelselection accordingto a mixedset of criteria. Basedon natural selection, evolutionary computing utilizes evaluationof candidatesolutions

  6. A Kalman-filter bias correction of ozone deterministic, ensemble-averaged, and probabilistic forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monache, L D; Grell, G A; McKeen, S; Wilczak, J; Pagowski, M O; Peckham, S; Stull, R; McHenry, J; McQueen, J

    2006-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Kalman filtering (KF) is used to postprocess numerical-model output to estimate systematic errors in surface ozone forecasts. It is implemented with a recursive algorithm that updates its estimate of future ozone-concentration bias by using past forecasts and observations. KF performance is tested for three types of ozone forecasts: deterministic, ensemble-averaged, and probabilistic forecasts. Eight photochemical models were run for 56 days during summer 2004 over northeastern USA and southern Canada as part of the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation New England Air Quality (AQ) Study. The raw and KF-corrected predictions are compared with ozone measurements from the Aerometric Information Retrieval Now data set, which includes roughly 360 surface stations. The completeness of the data set allowed a thorough sensitivity test of key KF parameters. It is found that the KF improves forecasts of ozone-concentration magnitude and the ability to predict rare events, both for deterministic and ensemble-averaged forecasts. It also improves the ability to predict the daily maximum ozone concentration, and reduces the time lag between the forecast and observed maxima. For this case study, KF considerably improves the predictive skill of probabilistic forecasts of ozone concentration greater than thresholds of 10 to 50 ppbv, but it degrades it for thresholds of 70 to 90 ppbv. Moreover, KF considerably reduces probabilistic forecast bias. The significance of KF postprocessing and ensemble-averaging is that they are both effective for real-time AQ forecasting. KF reduces systematic errors, whereas ensemble-averaging reduces random errors. When combined they produce the best overall forecast.

  7. Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN SLOUGHTER, ADRIAN E. RAFTERY, TILMANN GNEITING, AND CHRIS FRALEY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN SLOUGHTER, ADRIAN E. RAFTERY, TILMANN GNEITING, AND CHRIS FRALEY Department of Statistics, University of precipitation (PoP) forecasts using this approach. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) was introduced by Raftery et

  8. Variable Average Absolute Percent Differences

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov YouKizildere IRaghuraji Agro IndustriesTownDells,1Stocks Nov-14TotalTheE. Great Basin Oil and Gas FieldsLiquids

  9. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    electricity demand forecast means that the region's electricity needs would grow by 5,343 average megawattsDemand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping

  10. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using theof two methods to forecast natural gas prices is performed:accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the

  11. average wind shear: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    by uncompensated voids. Maria Mattsson; Teppo Mattsson 2010-07-17 7 Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging Mathematics Websites Summary:...

  12. Absolute nuclear material assay

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prasad, Manoj K. (Pleasanton, CA); Snyderman, Neal J. (Berkeley, CA); Rowland, Mark S. (Alamo, CA)

    2012-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  13. Absolute nuclear material assay

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prasad, Manoj K. (Pleasanton, CA); Snyderman, Neal J. (Berkeley, CA); Rowland, Mark S. (Alamo, CA)

    2010-07-13T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  14. Decoherence at absolute zero

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Supurna Sinha

    2005-05-09T23:59:59.000Z

    We present an analytical study of the loss of quantum coherence at absolute zero. Our model consists of a harmonic oscillator coupled to an environment of harmonic oscillators at absolute zero. We find that for an Ohmic bath, the offdiagonal elements of the density matrix in the position representation decay as a power law in time at late times. This slow loss of coherence in the quantum domain is qualitatively different from the exponential decay observed in studies of high temperature environments.

  15. Absolute Biodiesel Potential Country Name

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wisconsin at Madison, University of

    Absolute Biodiesel Potential Country Name Production Cost ($/liter) Potential Biodiesel Volume,234 0% 0% #12;Absolute Biodiesel Potential Country Name Production Cost ($/liter) Potential Biodiesel;Absolute Biodiesel Potential Country Name Production Cost ($/liter) Potential Biodiesel Volume (liters

  16. Calculator simplifies field production forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bixler, B.

    1982-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of forecasting future field production from an assumed average well production schedule and drilling schedule has been programmed for the HP-41C hand-held programmable computer. No longer must tedious row summations be made by hand for staggered well production schedules. Details of the program are provided.

  17. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  18. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  19. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range. The price of crude oil was $25 a barrel in January of 2000. In July 2008 it averaged $127, even approachingSixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction

  20. 1992 five year battery forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amistadi, D.

    1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Five-year trends for automotive and industrial batteries are projected. Topic covered include: SLI shipments; lead consumption; automotive batteries (5-year annual growth rates); industrial batteries (standby power and motive power); estimated average battery life by area/country for 1989; US motor vehicle registrations; replacement battery shipments; potential lead consumption in electric vehicles; BCI recycling rates for lead-acid batteries; US average car/light truck battery life; channels of distribution; replacement battery inventory end July; 2nd US battery shipment forecast.

  1. Verification of hourly forecasts of wind turbine power output

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A verification of hourly average wind speed forecasts in terms of hourly average power output of a MOD-2 was performed for four sites. Site-specific probabilistic transformation models were developed to transform the forecast and observed hourly average speeds to the percent probability of exceedance of an hourly average power output. (This transformation model also appears to have value in predicting annual energy production for use in wind energy feasibility studies.) The transformed forecasts were verified in a deterministic sense (i.e., as continuous values) and in a probabilistic sense (based upon the probability of power output falling in a specified category). Since the smoothing effects of time averaging are very pronounced, the 90% probability of exceedance was built into the transformation models. Semiobjective and objective (model output statistics) forecasts were made compared for the four sites. The verification results indicate that the correct category can be forecast an average of 75% of the time over a 24-hour period. Accuracy generally decreases with projection time out to approx. 18 hours and then may increase due to the fairly regular diurnal wind patterns that occur at many sites. The ability to forecast the correct power output category increases with increasing power output because occurrences of high hourly average power output (near rated) are relatively rare and are generally not forecast. The semiobjective forecasts proved superior to model output statistics in forecasting high values of power output and in the shorter time frames (1 to 6 hours). However, model output statistics were slightly more accurate at other power output levels and times. Noticeable differences were observed between deterministic and probabilistic (categorical) forecast verification results.

  2. Measurement of the absolute \

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aunion, Jose Luis Alcaraz; /Barcelona, IFAE

    2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis presents the measurement of the charged current quasi-elastic (CCQE) neutrino-nucleon cross section at neutrino energies around 1 GeV. This measurement has two main physical motivations. On one hand, the neutrino-nucleon interactions at few GeV is a region where existing old data are sparse and with low statistics. The current measurement populates low energy regions with higher statistics and precision than previous experiments. On the other hand, the CCQE interaction is the most useful interaction in neutrino oscillation experiments. The CCQE channel is used to measure the initial and final neutrino fluxes in order to determine the neutrino fraction that disappeared. The neutrino oscillation experiments work at low neutrino energies, so precise measurement of CCQE interactions are essential for flux measurements. The main goal of this thesis is to measure the CCQE absolute neutrino cross section from the SciBooNE data. The SciBar Booster Neutrino Experiment (SciBooNE) is a neutrino and anti-neutrino scattering off experiment. The neutrino energy spectrum works at energies around 1 GeV. SciBooNE was running from June 8th 2007 to August 18th 2008. In that period, the experiment collected a total of 2.65 x 10{sup 20} protons on target (POT). This thesis has used full data collection in neutrino mode 0.99 x 10{sup 20} POT. A CCQE selection cut has been performed, achieving around 70% pure CCQE sample. A fit method has been exclusively developed to determine the absolute CCQE cross section, presenting results in a neutrino energy range from 0.2 to 2 GeV. The results are compatible with the NEUT predictions. The SciBooNE measurement has been compared with both Carbon (MiniBoonE) and deuterium (ANL and BNL) target experiments, showing a good agreement in both cases.

  3. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast to grow from 20,080 average megawatts in 2000 to 25 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  4. Absolute neutrino mass measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wolf, Joachim [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), IEKP, Postfach 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2011-10-06T23:59:59.000Z

    The neutrino mass plays an important role in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology. In recent years the detection of neutrino flavour oscillations proved that neutrinos carry mass. However, oscillation experiments are only sensitive to the mass-squared difference of the mass eigenvalues. In contrast to cosmological observations and neutrino-less double beta decay (0v2{beta}) searches, single {beta}-decay experiments provide a direct, model-independent way to determine the absolute neutrino mass by measuring the energy spectrum of decay electrons at the endpoint region with high accuracy.Currently the best kinematic upper limits on the neutrino mass of 2.2eV have been set by two experiments in Mainz and Troitsk, using tritium as beta emitter. The next generation tritium {beta}-experiment KATRIN is currently under construction in Karlsruhe/Germany by an international collaboration. KATRIN intends to improve the sensitivity by one order of magnitude to 0.2eV. The investigation of a second isotope ({sup 137}Rh) is being pursued by the international MARE collaboration using micro-calorimeters to measure the beta spectrum. The technology needed to reach 0.2eV sensitivity is still in the R and D phase. This paper reviews the present status of neutrino-mass measurements with cosmological data, 0v2{beta} decay and single {beta}-decay.

  5. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  6. Technology Forecasting Scenario Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

  7. Rainfall-River Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    ;2Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program · Minimize losses due management and enhance America's coastal assets · Expand information for managing America's Water Resources, Precipitation and Water Quality Observations · USACE Reservoir Operation Information, Streamflow, Snowpack

  8. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  9. Probabilistic manpower forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koonce, James Fitzhugh

    1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1966 Major Subject...: Computer Science and Statistics PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis By JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas A@M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May...

  10. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uranium Processing Facility UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be...

  11. Long Term Forecast ofLong Term Forecast of TsunamisTsunamis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : ImproveImprove NOAANOAA''ss understandingunderstanding and forecast capabilityand forecast capability inin

  12. Absolute calibration of optical flats

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sommargren, Gary E.

    2005-04-05T23:59:59.000Z

    The invention uses the phase shifting diffraction interferometer (PSDI) to provide a true point-by-point measurement of absolute flatness over the surface of optical flats. Beams exiting the fiber optics in a PSDI have perfect spherical wavefronts. The measurement beam is reflected from the optical flat and passed through an auxiliary optic to then be combined with the reference beam on a CCD. The combined beams include phase errors due to both the optic under test and the auxiliary optic. Standard phase extraction algorithms are used to calculate this combined phase error. The optical flat is then removed from the system and the measurement fiber is moved to recombine the two beams. The newly combined beams include only the phase errors due to the auxiliary optic. When the second phase measurement is subtracted from the first phase measurement, the absolute phase error of the optical flat is obtained.

  13. Absolute Motion and Gravitational Effects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cahill, R T

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The new Process Physics provides a new explanation of space as a quantum foam system in which gravity is an inhomogeneous flow of the quantum foam into matter. An analysis of various experiments demonstrates that absolute motion relative to space has been observed experimentally by Michelson and Morley, Miller, Illingworth, Torr and Kolen, and by DeWitte. The Dayton Miller and Roland DeWitte data also reveal the in-flow of space into matter which manifests as gravity. The in-flow also manifests turbulence and the experimental data confirms this as well, which amounts to the observation of a gravitational wave phenomena. The Einstein assumptions leading to the Special and General Theory of Relativity are shown to be falsified by the extensive experimental data. Contrary to the Einstein assumptions absolute motion is consistent with relativistic effects, which are caused by actual dynamical effects of absolute motion through the quantum foam, so that it is Lorentzian relativity that is seen to be essentially co...

  14. Absolute Motion and Gravitational Effects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reginald T Cahill

    2003-06-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The new Process Physics provides a new explanation of space as a quantum foam system in which gravity is an inhomogeneous flow of the quantum foam into matter. An analysis of various experiments demonstrates that absolute motion relative to space has been observed experimentally by Michelson and Morley, Miller, Illingworth, Torr and Kolen, and by DeWitte. The Dayton Miller and Roland DeWitte data also reveal the in-flow of space into matter which manifests as gravity. The in-flow also manifests turbulence and the experimental data confirms this as well, which amounts to the observation of a gravitational wave phenomena. The Einstein assumptions leading to the Special and General Theory of Relativity are shown to be falsified by the extensive experimental data. Contrary to the Einstein assumptions absolute motion is consistent with relativistic effects, which are caused by actual dynamical effects of absolute motion through the quantum foam, so that it is Lorentzian relativity that is seen to be essentially correct.

  15. Steam System Forecasting and Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    '. This and the complex and integrated nature of the plants energy balance makes steam system forecasting and management essential for optimum use of the plant's energy. This paper discusses the method used by Union carbide to accomplish effective forecasting...

  16. Compressor performance, absolutely! M. R. Titchener

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Titchener, Mark R.

    Compressor performance, absolutely! M. R. Titchener Dept of CS, U. of Auck., N.Z. (Email: mark the absolute performance of existing string compressors may be measured. Kolmogorov (1958) recognised://tcode.auckland.ac.nz/~corpus has been used to evaluate the `absolute' performance of a series of popular compressors. The results

  17. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  18. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

    EMGT 835 FIELD PROJECT: Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting By Juan Mario Balandran jmbg@hotmail.com Master of Science The University of Kansas Fall Semester, 2005 An EMGT Field Project report submitted...............................................................................................................................................10 Current Inventory Forecast Process ...........................................................................................10 Development of Alternative Forecast Process...

  19. timber quality Modelling and forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe M E F Y Q U E #12;Valuing and the UK ­ are working closely together to develop a model to help forecast timber growth, yield, quality

  20. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime-Switching

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genton, Marc G.

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at a wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime. Geographically dispersed was applied to 2-hour-ahead forecasts of hourly average wind speed near the Stateline wind energy center

  1. Employment Forecasts for Ohio's Primary Metals Manufacturing and Administrative and Support Services Industries

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Illinois at Chicago, University of

    that are outperforming the industry average. Additional research shows that the industry is reactive to manufacturingEmployment Forecasts for Ohio's Primary Metals Manufacturing and Administrative and Support, the primary metals manufacturing industry (NAICS 331000) employment in Ohio is forecasted to decline by 21

  2. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  3. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

  4. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantifying PV power output variability,” Solar Energy, vol.each solar sen at node i, P(t) the total power output of theSolar Forecasting Historically, traditional power generation technologies such as fossil and nu- clear power which were designed to run in stable output

  5. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Ed.. Editor: Jan

  6. An absolute Johnson noise thermometer

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Luca Callegaro; Vincenzo D'Elia; Marco Pisani; Alessio Pollarolo

    2009-01-30T23:59:59.000Z

    We developed an absolute Johnson noise thermometer (JNT), an instrument to measure the thermodynamic temperature of a sensing resistor, with traceability to voltage, resistance and frequency quantities. The temperature is measured in energy units, and can be converted to SI units (kelvin) with the accepted value of the Boltzmann constant kb; or, conversely, it can be employed to perform measurements at the triple point of water, and obtain a determination of kb. The thermometer is composed of a correlation spectrum analyzer an a calibrated noise source, both constructed around commercial mixed-signal boards. The calibrator generates a pseudorandom noise, by digital synthesis and amplitude scaling with inductive voltage dividers; the signal spectrum is a frequency comb covering the measurement bandwidth. JNT measurements at room temperature are compatible with those of a standard platinum resistance thermometer within the combined uncertainty of 60 ppm. A path towards future improvements of JNT accuracy is also sketched.

  7. THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    energy-using devices in the average U.S. household that used over 4,700 kWh of electricity, natural gas-using devices to energy price, household income, and the cost of these devices. This analysis findsTHE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY SERVICES by Steven Groves BASc

  8. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))

    1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.

  9. Subhourly wind forecasting techniques for wind turbine operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Kosorok, M.R.; Formica, W.J.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Three models for making automated forecasts of subhourly wind and wind power fluctuations were examined to determine the models' appropriateness, accuracy, and reliability in wind forecasting for wind turbine operation. Such automated forecasts appear to have value not only in wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine operating strategies (such as determining when to attempt startup). A simple persistence model, an autoregressive model, and a generalized equivalent Markhov (GEM) model were developed and tested using spring season data from the WKY television tower located near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The three models represent a pure measurement approach, a pure statistical method and a statistical-dynamical model, respectively. Forecasting models of wind speed means and measures of deviations about the mean were developed and tested for all three forecasting techniques for the 45-meter level and for the 10-, 30- and 60-minute time intervals. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a persistence-based approach, using onsite measurements, will probably be superior in the 10-minute time frame. The GEM model appears to have the most potential in 30-minute and longer time frames, particularly when forecasting wind speed fluctuations. However, several improvements to the GEM model are suggested. In comparison to the other models, the autoregressive model performed poorly at all time frames; but, it is recommended that this model be upgraded to an autoregressive moving average (ARMA or ARIMA) model. The primary constraint in adapting the forecasting models to the production of wind turbine cluster power output forecasts is the lack of either actual data, or suitable models, for simulating wind turbine cluster performance.

  10. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  11. ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005.................................................................................................................................3 PACIFIC GAS & ELECTRIC PLANNING AREA ........................................................................................9 Commercial Sector

  12. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

  13. Convective and absolute instabilities in eccentric Taylor

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shyamasundar, R.K.

    Convective and absolute instabilities in eccentric Taylor Laboratoire de mécanique des fluides et d and absolute instabilities in Taylor-Couette-Poiseuille flow Benoît PIER Laboratoire de mécanique des fluides flow type often disrupt oil-well drilling By implementing a detailed instability analysis, the dynamics

  14. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission's final forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural gas demand Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand

  15. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the California Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand

  16. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility

  17. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce

  18. Conservation The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    & Resources Creating Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the PNW's Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad's Wild RideNorthwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast ­­ Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Dominates ResourceDominates Resource DevelopmentDevelopment Tom EckmanTom Eckman

  19. Precision Absolute Beam Current Measurement of Low Power Electron Beam

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ali, M. M.; Bevins, M. E.; Degtiarenko, P.; Freyberger, A.; Krafft, G. A.

    2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Precise measurements of low power CW electron beam current for the Jefferson Lab Nuclear Physics program have been performed using a Tungsten calorimeter. This paper describes the rationale for the choice of the calorimeter technique, as well as the design and calibration of the device. The calorimeter is in use presently to provide a 1% absolute current measurement of CW electron beam with 50 to 500 nA of average beam current and 1-3 GeV beam energy. Results from these recent measurements will also be presented.

  20. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency and Demand Analysis Division Scott W. Matthews Acting Executive

  1. Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Robert Stephen

    Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good Technical Report 47 September 1989 Computational Logic Inc the physical behavior of computer programs can reduce these risks for software engineering in the same way that it does for aerospace and other fields of engineering. Present forecasting capabilities for computer

  2. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  3. Weighted median of the data in solving least absolute

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scitovski, Rudolf

    is illustrated by an example of hourly natural gas consumption forecast. Key words. median, weighted median

  4. Absolute geopotential height system for Ethiopia 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bedada, Tullu Besha

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study used airborne gravity data, the 2008 Earth Gravity Model (EGM08) and Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) digital elevation data in a ‘Remove-Compute-Restore’ process to determine absolute vertical reference ...

  5. Absolute vs. intensity-based emission caps

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ellerman, A. Denny.

    Cap-and-trade systems limit emissions to some pre-specified absolute quantity. Intensity-based limits, that restrict emissions to some pre-specified rate relative to input or output, are much more widely used in environmental ...

  6. Emission trading with absolute and intensity caps

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Song, Jaemin

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Kyoto Protocol introduced emission trading to help reduce the cost of compliances for the Annex B countries that have absolute caps. However, we need to expand the emission trading to cover developing countries in order ...

  7. Absolute integrated intensities of vapor-phase hydrogen peroxide...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Absolute integrated intensities of vapor-phase hydrogen peroxide (H202) in the mid-infrared at atmospheric pressure. Absolute integrated intensities of vapor-phase hydrogen...

  8. Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of Domain Composition...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of Domain Composition and Nanoscale Size Distribution Explains Performance in Solar Cells Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of...

  9. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN with primary contributions in the area of decision support for reservoir planning and management Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project

  10. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN: California Energy Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Martha

  11. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  12. An adaptive neural network approach to one-week ahead load forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, T.M. (Pacific Gas and Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (United States)); Hubele, N.F.; Karady, G.G. (Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States))

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A new neural network approach is applied to one-week ahead load forecasting. This approach uses a linear adaptive neuron or adaptive linear combiner called Adaline.'' An energy spectrum is used to analyze the periodic components in a load sequence. The load sequence mainly consists of three components: base load component, and low and high frequency load components. Each load component has a unique frequency range. Load decomposition is made for the load sequence using digital filters with different passband frequencies. After load decomposition, each load component can be forecasted by an Adaline. Each Adaline has an input sequence, an output sequence, and a desired response-signal sequence. It also has a set of adjustable parameters called the weight vector. In load forecasting, the weight vector is designed to make the output sequence, the forecasted load, follow the actual load sequence; it also has a minimized Least Mean Square error. This approach is useful in forecasting unit scheduling commitments. Mean absolute percentage errors of less than 3.4 percent are derived from five months of utility data, thus demonstrating the high degree of accuracy that can be obtained without dependence on weather forecasts.

  13. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  14. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  15. A Model of Absolute Autonomy and Power: Toward Group Effects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hexmoor, Henry

    575 2420 fax:479 575 5339 Abstract. We present a model of absolute autonomy and power in agent systems present a model that approximates absolute autonomy and power in agent systems. This absolute sense1 A Model of Absolute Autonomy and Power: Toward Group Effects HENRY HEXMOOR Computer Science

  16. Multiverse Set Theory and Absolutely Undecidable Propositions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Väänänen, Jouko

    Multiverse Set Theory and Absolutely Undecidable Propositions Jouko V¨a¨an¨anen University of Helsinki and University of Amsterdam Contents 1 Introduction 2 2 Background 4 3 The multiverse of sets 6 3.1 The one universe case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3.2 The multiverse

  17. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  18. Averaging Hypotheses in Newtonian Cosmology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    T. Buchert

    1995-12-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Average properties of general inhomogeneous cosmological models are discussed in the Newtonian framework. It is shown under which circumstances the average flow reduces to a member of the standard Friedmann--Lema\\^\\i tre cosmologies. Possible choices of global boundary conditions of inhomogeneous cosmologies as well as consequences for the interpretation of cosmological parameters are put into perspective.

  19. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  20. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  1. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  2. Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    forecasting methods and better integration of advanced wind power forecasts into system and plant operations and wind power plants) ­ Review and assess current practices Propose and test new and improved approachesWind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud

  3. 1995 shipment review & five year forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fetherolf, D.J. Jr. [East Penn Manufacturing Co., Inc., Lyon Station, PA (United States)

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the 1995 battery shipment review and five year forecast for the battery market. Historical data is discussed.

  4. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  5. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility Planning Area Energy Policy Report. The forecast includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low

  6. Absolute-magnitude distributions of supernovae

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richardson, Dean; Wright, John [Department of Physics, Xavier University of Louisiana, New Orleans, LA 70125 (United States); Jenkins III, Robert L. [Applied Physics Department, Richard Stockton College, Galloway, NJ 08205 (United States); Maddox, Larry, E-mail: drichar7@xula.edu [Department of Chemistry and Physics, Southeastern Louisiana University, Hammond, LA 70402 (United States)

    2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The absolute-magnitude distributions of seven supernova (SN) types are presented. The data used here were primarily taken from the Asiago Supernova Catalogue, but were supplemented with additional data. We accounted for both foreground and host-galaxy extinction. A bootstrap method is used to correct the samples for Malmquist bias. Separately, we generate volume-limited samples, restricted to events within 100 Mpc. We find that the superluminous events (M{sub B} < –21) make up only about 0.1% of all SNe in the bias-corrected sample. The subluminous events (M{sub B} > –15) make up about 3%. The normal Ia distribution was the brightest with a mean absolute blue magnitude of –19.25. The IIP distribution was the dimmest at –16.75.

  7. Absolute absorption spectroscopy based on molecule interferometry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stefan Nimmrichter; Klaus Hornberger; Hendrik Ulbricht; Markus Arndt

    2008-11-07T23:59:59.000Z

    We propose a new method to measure the absolute photon absorption cross section of neutral molecules in a molecular beam. It is independent of our knowledge of the particle beam density, nor does it rely on photo-induced fragmentation or ionization. The method is based on resolving the recoil resulting from photon absorption by means of near-field matter-wave interference, and it thus applies even to very dilute beams with low optical densities. Our discussion includes the possibility of internal state conversion as well as fluorescence. We assess the influence of various experimental uncertainties and show that the measurement of absolute absorption cross sections is conceivable with high precision and using existing technologies.

  8. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  9. Absolute Magnitude Distribution And Light Curves Of Gamma-Ray Burst Supernovae

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dean Richardson

    2008-12-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Photometry data were collected from the literature and analyzed for supernovae that are thought to have a gamma-ray burst association. There are several gamma-ray burst afterglow light curves that appear to have a supernova component. For these light curves, the supernova component was extracted and analyzed. A supernova light curve model was used to help determine the peak absolute magnitudes as well as estimates for the kinetic energy, ejected mass and nickel mass in the explosion. The peak absolute magnitudes are, on average, brighter than those of similar supernovae (stripped-envelope supernovae) that do not have a gamma-ray burst association, but this can easily be due to a selection effect. However, the kinetic energies and ejected masses were found to be considerably higher, on average, than those of similar supernovae without a gamma-ray burst association.

  10. Absolute intensity calibration of the 32-channel heterodyne radiometer on experimental advanced superconducting tokamak

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, X.; Zhao, H. L.; Liu, Y., E-mail: liuyong@ipp.ac.cn; Li, E. Z.; Han, X.; Ti, A.; Hu, L. Q.; Zhang, X. D. [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031 (China); Domier, C. W.; Luhmann, N. C. [Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of California at Davis, Davis, California 95616 (United States)

    2014-09-15T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents the results of the in situ absolute intensity calibration for the 32-channel heterodyne radiometer on the experimental advanced superconducting tokamak. The hot/cold load method is adopted, and the coherent averaging technique is employed to improve the signal to noise ratio. Measured spectra and electron temperature profiles are compared with those from an independent calibrated Michelson interferometer, and there is a relatively good agreement between the results from the two different systems.

  11. Multi-objective calibration of forecast ensembles using Bayesian model averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vrugt, Jasper A.

    for selecting the appropriate BMA model. Citation: Vrugt, J. A., M. P. Clark, C. G. H. Diks, Q. Duan, and B. A Martyn P. Clark,2 Cees G. H. Diks,3 Qinyun Duan,4 and Bruce A. Robinson1 Received 6 June 2006; revised 9 performance than the best of the ensemble members, or the ensemble mean [Raftery et al., 2005; Sloughter et al

  12. Evaluations of average level spacings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liou, H.I.

    1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The average level spacing for highly excited nuclei is a key parameter in cross section formulas based on statistical nuclear models, and also plays an important role in determining many physics quantities. Various methods to evaluate average level spacings are reviewed. Because of the finite experimental resolution, to detect a complete sequence of levels without mixing other parities is extremely difficult, if not totally impossible. Most methods derive the average level spacings by applying a fit, with different degrees of generality, to the truncated Porter-Thomas distribution for reduced neutron widths. A method that tests both distributions of level widths and positions is discussed extensivey with an example of /sup 168/Er data. 19 figures, 2 tables.

  13. Absolute instruments and perfect imaging in geometrical optics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyc, Tomas

    Absolute instruments and perfect imaging in geometrical optics Tom´as Tyc, Lenka Herz symmetric absolute instruments that provide perfect imaging in the sense of geometrical optics. We derive to propose several new absolute instruments, in particular a lens providing a stigmatic image of an optically

  14. Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan [Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2014-09-12T23:59:59.000Z

    Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

  15. The Frame Potential, on Average

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ingemar Bengtsson; Helena Granstrom

    2008-10-24T23:59:59.000Z

    A SIC consists of N^2 equiangular unit vectors in an N dimensional Hilbert space. The frame potential is a function of N^2 unit vectors. It has a unique global minimum if the vectors form a SIC, and this property has been made use of in numerical searches for SICs. When the vectors form an orbit of the Heisenberg group the frame potential becomes a function of a single fiducial vector. We analytically compute the average of this function over Hilbert space. We also compute averages when the fiducial vector is placed in certain special subspaces defined by the Clifford group.

  16. Absolute Calibration of the Auger Fluorescence Detectors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    P. Bauleo; J. Brack; L. Garrard; J. Harton; R. Knapik; R. Meyhandan; A. C. Rovero; A. Tamashiro; D. Warner; for the Auger Collaboration

    2005-07-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Absolute calibration of the Pierre Auger Observatory fluorescence detectors uses a light source at the telescope aperture. The technique accounts for the ombined effects of all detector components in a single measurement. The calibrated 2.5 m diameter light source fills the aperture, providing uniform illumination to each pixel. The known flux from the light source and the response of the acquisition system give the required calibration for each pixel. In the lab, light source uniformity is studied using CCD images and the intensity is measured relative to NIST-calibrated photodiodes. Overall uncertainties are presently 12%, and are dominated by systematics.

  17. 4, 22832300, 2004 Hemispheric average

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    ACPD 4, 2283­2300, 2004 Hemispheric average Cl atom concentration U. Platt et al. Title Page U. Platt1 , W. Allen2 , and D. Lowe2 1 Institut f¨ur Umweltphysik, University of Heidelberg, INF 229 February 2004 ­ Accepted: 9 March 2004 ­ Published: 4 May 2004 Correspondence to: U. Platt (ulrich.platt

  18. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for Renewable Energy: Grid IntegrationReport AvailableForecasting NREL researchers use

  19. Hybrid methodology for hourly global radiation forecasting in Mediterranean area

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Voyant, Cyril; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie Laure

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The renewable energies prediction and particularly global radiation forecasting is a challenge studied by a growing number of research teams. This paper proposes an original technique to model the insolation time series based on combining Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. While ANN by its non-linear nature is effective to predict cloudy days, ARMA techniques are more dedicated to sunny days without cloud occurrences. Thus, three hybrids models are suggested: the first proposes simply to use ARMA for 6 months in spring and summer and to use an optimized ANN for the other part of the year; the second model is equivalent to the first but with a seasonal learning; the last model depends on the error occurred the previous hour. These models were used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. The forecasting performance was compared among several models: the 3 above mentioned models, the best ANN and ARMA for each location. In t...

  20. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  1. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  2. Solid low-level waste forecasting guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

    1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford`s experience within the last six years. Hanford`s forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford`s annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford`s forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data.

  3. Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

    1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

  4. Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sancetta, Alessio

    the single individual forecasts. Several studies have shown that combining forecasts can be a useful hedge against structural breaks, and forecast combinations are often more stable than single forecasts (e.g. Hendry and Clements, 2004, Stock and Watson, 2004... in expectations. Hence, we have the following. Corollary 4 Suppose maxt?T kl (Yt, hwt,Xti)kr ? A taking expectation on the left hand side, adding 2A ? T and setting ? = 0 in mT (?), i.e. TX t=1 E [lt (wt)? lt (ut...

  5. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American...

  6. U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kamat, Vineet R.

    U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast Spring ­ Fall 2012 As of December 15, 2011 Prepared by AEC Preliminary & Advisory #12;U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 Overview · Campus by campus · Snapshot in time ­ Not all projects · Construction coordination efforts

  7. Ensemble bayesian model averaging using markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Diks, Cees G H [NON LANL; Clark, Martyn P [NON LANL

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In their seminal paper (Raftery etal. Mon Weather Rev 133: 1155-1174, 2(05)) has recommended the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for BMA model training, even though global convergence of this algorithm cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we compare the performance of the EM algorithm and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the BMA weights and variances. Simulation experiments using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and multi-model stream-flow forecasts show that both methods produce similar results, and that their performance is unaffected by the length of the training data set. However, MCMC simulation with DREAM is capable of efficiently handling a wide variety of BMA predictive distributions, and provides useful information about the uncertainty associated with the estimated BMA weights and variances.

  8. Experiments for the absolute neutrino mass measurement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Markus Steidl

    2009-06-02T23:59:59.000Z

    Experimental results and perspectives of different methods to measure the absolute mass scale of neutrinos are briefly reviewed. The mass sensitivities from cosmological observations, double beta decay searches and single beta decay spectroscopy differ in sensitivity and model dependance. Next generation experiments in the three fields reach the sensitivity for the lightest mass eigenstate of $m_1<0.2eV$, which will finally answer the question if neutrino mass eigenstates are degenerate. This sensitivity is also reached by the only model-independent approach of single beta decay (KATRIN experiment). For higher sensitivities on cost of model-dependance the neutrinoless double beta decay search and cosmological observation have to be applied. Here, in the next decade sensitivities are approached with the potential to test inverted hierarchy models.

  9. Absolute Maximal Entanglement and Quantum Secret Sharing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Helwig, Wolfram; Riera, Arnau; Latorre, José I; Lo, Hoi-Kwong

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We study the existence of absolutely maximally entangled (AME) states in quantum mechanics and its applications to quantum information. AME states are characterized by being maximally entangled for all bipartitions of the system and exhibit genuine multipartite entanglement. With such states, we present a novel parallel teleportation protocol which teleports multiple quantum states between groups of senders and receivers. The notable features of this protocol are that (i) the partition into senders and receivers can be chosen after the state has been distributed, and (ii) one group has to perform joint quantum operations while the parties of the other group only have to act locally on their system. We also prove the equivalence between pure state quantum secret sharing schemes and AME states with an even number of parties. This equivalence implies the existence of AME states for an arbitrary number of parties based on known results about the existence of quantum secret sharing schemes.

  10. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts makeCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY

  11. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  12. Seasonal Average Temperature - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of ScienceandMesa del Sol HomeFacebook TwitterSearch-Comments Sign In About | CareersAverage Temperature

  13. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluating A PotentialJumpGermanFife Energy Park atFisiaFlorida:Forecast Energy Jump to:

  14. Econometric and Neural Network Analysis of the Labor Productivity and Average Gross Earnings Indices in the Romanian Industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Econometric and Neural Network Analysis of the Labor Productivity and Average Gross Earnings and models that were used consist of several lag econometric models, ARIMA processes, as well as feed forward AGEI and LPI. Key-Words: - labor productivity, econometric model, ARIMA, VAR, neural network, forecast

  15. Absolute measurement of small-amplitude vibrations by time-averaged heterodyne holography with a dual local oscillator

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    the radiofrequency (RF) content of an optical radiation field E in a sensor bandwidth by mixing it with a LO field camera, (Andor IXON 885+, readout rate S/(2) = 20 Hz). The main optical radiation field is provided

  16. "Variable","Average Absolute Percent Differences","Percent of Projections Over- Estimated"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov YouKizildere IRaghuraji Agro IndustriesTownDells,1 U.S. Department of Energygasoline4 Space2.9 Home72 Home8 Water00Annual

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  18. Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo Oldenburg University have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius, 1981), when daily solar radiation forecasts

  19. Absolute nuclear material assay using count distribution (LAMBDA) space

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prasad, Manoj K. (Pleasanton, CA); Snyderman, Neal J. (Berkeley, CA); Rowland, Mark S. (Alamo, CA)

    2012-06-05T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  20. Alternative methods for forecasting GDP Dominique Gugan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    analysis. Better forecast performance for macroeconomic variables will lead to Paris School of Economics the speed of computers that can develop search algorithms from appropriate selection criteria, Devroye. 1 Introduction Forecasting macroeconomic variables such as GDP and inflation play an important role

  1. A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vertes, Akos

    APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Tara M. Sinclair , H.O. Stekler, and Warren Carnow Department of Economics The George Washington University Monroe Hall #340 2115 G Street NW Washington, DC 20052 JEL Codes, Mahalanobis Distance Abstract This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts

  2. 2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing and Economics at California State University, Fullerton, the largest accredited business school in California

  3. Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Luke D.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    /effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a...

  4. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  5. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency SEPTEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SDV1REV CALIFORNIA The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand and Methods

  6. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  7. TOWARD RELIABLE BENCHMARKING OF SOLAR FLARE FORECASTING METHODS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bloomfield, D. Shaun; Higgins, Paul A.; Gallagher, Peter T. [Astrophysics Research Group, School of Physics, Trinity College Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2 (Ireland); McAteer, R. T. James, E-mail: shaun.bloomfield@tcd.ie [Department of Astronomy, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003-8001 (United States)

    2012-03-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X-ray flares and McIntosh group classifications from solar cycles 21 and 22 to calculate average flare rates for each McIntosh class and use these to determine Poisson probabilities for different flare magnitudes. Forecast verification measures are studied to find optimum thresholds to convert Poisson flare probabilities into yes/no predictions of cycle 23 flares. A case is presented to adopt the true skill statistic (TSS) as a standard for forecast comparison over the commonly used Heidke skill score (HSS). In predicting flares over 24 hr, the maximum values of TSS achieved are 0.44 (C-class), 0.53 (M-class), 0.74 (X-class), 0.54 ({>=}M1.0), and 0.46 ({>=}C1.0). The maximum values of HSS are 0.38 (C-class), 0.27 (M-class), 0.14 (X-class), 0.28 ({>=}M1.0), and 0.41 ({>=}C1.0). These show that Poisson probabilities perform comparably to some more complex prediction systems, but the overall inaccuracy highlights the problem with using average values to represent flaring rate distributions.

  8. Absolute dipole gamma-ray strength functions for /sup 176/Lu

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gardner, D.G.; Gardner, M.A.; Hoff, R.W.

    1984-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

    We have derived absolute dipole strength-function information for /sup 176/Lu from an average resonance capture study of /sup 175/Lu with 2-keV neutrons, and from neutron capture cross-section measurements with neutrons from 30 keV to about 1 MeV. We found that we needed to increase our previous estimate of the relative M1/E1 strengths near 5 MeV by a factor of 3, and to revise downward the absolute magnitude of our E1 strength function. We accomplished the latter, while still maintaining continuity with the photonuclear data, by adjusting the one free parameter in our line shape. The present E1 and M1 strengths now seem correct both near the neutron separation energy and also around 1 MeV.

  9. absolutely calibrated effective: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    identical to the Sun, to set the absolute zero point of the effective temperature scale to within few degrees. Our newly calibrated, accurate and precise temperature...

  10. Sandia National Laboratories: high-precision absolute yaw encoder

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    high-precision absolute yaw encoder Increasing the Scaled Wind Farm Technology Facility's Power Production On April 7, 2014, in Energy, Facilities, News, News & Events,...

  11. absolute neutrino mass: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    obtained in tritium beta decay experiments, cosmological observations and neutrinoless double-beta decay experiments. Carlo Giunti 2005-11-10 3 Absolute neutrino mass from...

  12. absolute neutrino masses: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    obtained in tritium beta decay experiments, cosmological observations and neutrinoless double-beta decay experiments. Carlo Giunti 2005-11-10 3 Absolute neutrino mass from...

  13. absolute gamma ray: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    absolute gamma ray First Page Previous Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 Absolute Branching Ratio of...

  14. Essays on financial analysts' forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rodriguez, Marius del Giudice

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Cons. Dur. Other Utils Enrgy Hlth BusEq Money Telcm ManufCons. NonDur. Utils Other Enrgy negative outlier. AverageNonDur. Cons. Dur. Manuf Enrgy Chems BusEq Telcm Utils Shops

  15. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    procurement process at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast models. Both the staff draft energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly and commercial sectors. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather

  16. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and water pumping sectors. Mark Ciminelli forecasted energy for transportation, communication and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast

  17. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  18. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  19. Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Islam, M. Saif

    Page 1 Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey

  20. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

  1. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  2. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    supervised data preparation. Steven Mac and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Cynthia Rogers generation, conservation, energy efficiency, climate zone, investorowned, public, utilities, additional

  3. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  4. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  5. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  6. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  7. Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks...

  8. Space-time forecasting and evaluation of wind speed with statistical tests for comparing accuracy of spatial predictions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hering, Amanda S.

    2010-10-12T23:59:59.000Z

    High-quality short-term forecasts of wind speed are vital to making wind power a more reliable energy source. Gneiting et al. (2006) have introduced a model for the average wind speed two hours ahead based on both spatial and temporal information...

  9. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  10. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  11. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast W ith natural gas prices significantlyof AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  12. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to accurately forecast natural gas prices. Many policyseek alternative methods to forecast natural gas prices. Thethe accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported

  13. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  14. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsogas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesof AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  15. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Natural Gas Price Forecast Although natural gas prices areof AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  16. Measuring absolute infrared spectral radiance with correlated photons: new arrangements

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Migdall, Alan

    metrologia Measuring absolute infrared spectral radiance with correlated photons: new arrangements must be created in pairs, the VIS channel is also stimulated. In this Metrologia, 1998, 35, 295-300 295

  17. absolute efficiency calibration: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    good. This is used in a technique developed for the absolute calibration of ultra high energy cosmic ray fluorescence telescopes, and it can also be applied to imaging atmospheric...

  18. absolute radiometric calibration: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are good. This is used in a technique developed for the absolute calibration of ultra high energy cosmic ray fluorescence telescopes, and it can also be applied to imaging...

  19. absolute calibration site: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    good. This is used in a technique developed for the absolute calibration of ultra high energy cosmic ray fluorescence telescopes, and it can also be applied to imaging atmospheric...

  20. absolute intensity calibration: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    good. This is used in a technique developed for the absolute calibration of ultra high energy cosmic ray fluorescence telescopes, and it can also be applied to imaging atmospheric...

  1. absolute solar transmission: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data were collected from Chang, Grace C. 7 January 1996 NREUfP-463-20619 Calibration of a Solar Absolute Renewable Energy Websites Summary: of Scientific and Technical Information...

  2. Comparative vs. Absolute Performance Assessment with Environmental Sustainability Metrics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    High, Karen

    Comparative vs. Absolute Performance Assessment with Environmental Sustainability Metrics Xun Jin Different goals and potential audiences determine that two types of environmental performance assessments metrics can be partitioned into two camps. One suite of metrics aim to assess the environmental

  3. Absolutely minimal Lipschitz extension of tree-valued mappings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Naor, Assaf

    We prove that every Lipschitz function from a subset of a locally compact length space to a metric tree has a unique absolutely minimal Lipschitz extension (AMLE). We relate these extensions to a stochastic game called ...

  4. absolute transition probabilities: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 Absolute entropy and free energy of fluids using the hypothetical scanning method. I. Calculation of transition...

  5. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  6. General Relativity and Spatial Flows: I. Absolute Relativistic Dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tom Martin

    2000-06-08T23:59:59.000Z

    Two complementary and equally important approaches to relativistic physics are explained. One is the standard approach, and the other is based on a study of the flows of an underlying physical substratum. Previous results concerning the substratum flow approach are reviewed, expanded, and more closely related to the formalism of General Relativity. An absolute relativistic dynamics is derived in which energy and momentum take on absolute significance with respect to the substratum. Possible new effects on satellites are described.

  7. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  8. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast..................................................................................................................................... 2 Economic Growth Assumptions

  9. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet...

  10. Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Datta, Shoumen

    2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...

  11. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  12. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  13. Optimization Online - Dual Averaging Methods for Regularized ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin Xiao

    2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Apr 15, 2010 ... ... simple minimization problem that involves the running average of all past subgradients of the loss function and the whole regularization term, ...

  14. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  15. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  16. Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1 1 Great Lakes forecasts in operational hydrology builds a sample of possibilities for the future, of climate series from-parametric method can be extended into a new weighted parametric hydrological forecasting technique to allow

  17. A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

  18. FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions forecasts is 0.05o in latitude and longitude. Solar Radiation model: The model presented in this paper

  19. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  20. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural dedicated models to forecast the 12 individual months directly. Results indicate better performance is superior to naïve forecasts based on persistence and seasonality, and is better than results quoted

  1. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make assumptions about fuel price forecastsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY ENERGY COMMISSION Gordon Schremp, Jim Page, and Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Principal Authors Jim Page Project

  2. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

  3. Absolute Lineshifts - A new diagnostic for stellar hydrodynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dainis Dravins

    2003-02-28T23:59:59.000Z

    For hydrodynamic model atmospheres, absolute lineshifts are becoming an observable diagnostic tool beyond the classical ones of line-strength, -width, -shape, and -asymmetry. This is the wavelength displacement of different types of spectral lines away from the positions naively expected from the Doppler shift caused by stellar radial motion. Caused mainly by correlated velocity and brightness patterns in granular convection, such absolute lineshifts could in the past be studied only for the Sun (since the relative Sun-Earth motion, and the ensuing Doppler shift is known). For other stars, this is now becoming possible thanks to three separate developments: (a) Astrometric determination of stellar radial motion; (b) High-resolution spectrometers with accurate wavelength calibration, and (c) Accurate laboratory wavelengths for several atomic species. Absolute lineshifts offer a tool to segregate various 2- and 3-dimensional models, and to identify non-LTE effects in line formation.

  4. Absolute Lineshifts - A new diagnostic for stellar hydrodynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dravins, D

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    For hydrodynamic model atmospheres, absolute lineshifts are becoming an observable diagnostic tool beyond the classical ones of line-strength, -width, -shape, and -asymmetry. This is the wavelength displacement of different types of spectral lines away from the positions naively expected from the Doppler shift caused by stellar radial motion. Caused mainly by correlated velocity and brightness patterns in granular convection, such absolute lineshifts could in the past be studied only for the Sun (since the relative Sun-Earth motion, and the ensuing Doppler shift is known). For other stars, this is now becoming possible thanks to three separate developments: (a) Astrometric determination of stellar radial motion; (b) High-resolution spectrometers with accurate wavelength calibration, and (c) Accurate laboratory wavelengths for several atomic species. Absolute lineshifts offer a tool to segregate various 2- and 3-dimensional models, and to identify non-LTE effects in line formation.

  5. Averages in vector spaces over finite fields 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wright J.; Carbery A.; Stones B.

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We study the analogues of the problems of averages and maximal averages over a surface in R-n when the euclidean structure is replaced by that of a vector space over a finite field, and obtain optimal results in a number ...

  6. MESOSCALE AVERAGING OF NUCLEATION AND GROWTH MODELS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burger, Martin

    MESOSCALE AVERAGING OF NUCLEATION AND GROWTH MODELS MARTIN BURGER , VINCENZO CAPASSO , AND LIVIO-Kolmogorov relations for the degree of crystallinity. By relating the computation of expected values to mesoscale averaging, we obtain a suitable description of the process at the mesoscale. We show how the variance

  7. Stability comparison of two absolute gravimeters: optical versus atomic interferometers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gillot, Pierre; Landragin, Arnaud; Santos, Franck Pereira Dos; Merlet, Sébastien

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We report the direct comparison between the stabilities of two mobile absolute gravimeters of different technology: the LNE-SYRTE Cold Atom Gravimeter and FG5X\\#216 of the Universit\\'e du Luxembourg. These instruments rely on two different principles of operation: atomic and optical interferometry. The comparison took place in the Walferdange Underground Laboratory for Geodynamics in Luxembourg, at the beginning of the last International Comparison of Absolute Gravimeters, ICAG-2013. We analyse a 2h10 duration common measurement, and find that the CAG shows better immunity with respect to changes in the level of vibration noise, as well as a slightly better short term stability.

  8. Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lang, K.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    capital requirements and research and development programs in the alum inum industry. : CONCLUSIONS Forecasting the use of conservation techndlo gies with a market penetration model provides la more accountable method of projecting aggrega...

  9. Electron Cyclotron Emission Measurements on JET: Michelson Interferometer, New Absolute Calibration and Determination of Electron Temperature

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Electron Cyclotron Emission Measurements on JET: Michelson Interferometer, New Absolute Calibration and Determination of Electron Temperature

  10. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , Gary Occhiuzzo, and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Don Schultz and Doug Kemmer developed. California Energy Commission, Electricity Supply Analysis Division. Publication Number: CEC2002012001CMFVI

  11. Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Facebook IPO ­ updated valuation and user forecasting Based on: Amendment No. 6 to Form S-1 (May 9. Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette, Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic Extreme Growth JPMPaper Cauwels and Sornette 840 1110 1820 S1- filing- May 9 2012 1006 1105 1371 Facebook

  12. Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

  13. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  14. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sripada, Yaji

    for generating textual summaries. Our algorithm has been implemented in a weather forecast generation system. 1 presentation, aid human understanding of the underlying data sets. SUMTIME is a research project aiming turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP

  15. Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olascoaga, Maria Josefina

    Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns María J. Olascoagaa,1 and George of Mexico in 2010. We present a methodology to predict major short-term changes in en- vironmental River's mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting fire could not be extinguished and the drilling rig

  16. New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined

  17. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency DECEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SFV1 CALIFORNIA and expertise of numerous California Energy Commission staff members in the Demand Analysis Office. In addition

  18. SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gambardella, Luca Maria

    SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL Luca Maria Gambardella1 , Gianluca@idsia.ch 2 LCST, La Spezia Container Terminal, La Spezia (IT) 3 DSP, Data System & Planning sa, Manno (CH working in intermodal container terminals. INTRODUCTION The amount of work a container terminal deals

  19. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  20. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  1. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  2. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price as traded on the wholesale, short-term (spot) market at the Mid-Columbia trading hub. This price represents noted. BASE CASE FORECAST The base case wholesale electricity price forecast uses the Council's medium

  3. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  4. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  5. Absolute Calibration of a Large-diameter Light Source

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brack, J T; Dorofeev, A; Gookin, B; Harton, J L; Petrov, Y; Rovero, A C

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of absolute calibration for large aperture optical systems is presented, using the example of the Pierre Auger Observatory fluorescence detectors. A 2.5 m diameter light source illuminated by an ultra--violet light emitting diode is calibrated with an overall uncertainty of 2.1 % at a wavelength of 365 nm.

  6. Double Beta Decay and the Absolute Neutrino Mass Scale

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carlo Giunti

    2003-08-20T23:59:59.000Z

    After a short review of the current status of three-neutrino mixing, the implications for the values of neutrino masses are discussed. The bounds on the absolute scale of neutrino masses from Tritium beta-decay and cosmological data are reviewed. Finally, we discuss the implications of three-neutrino mixing for neutrinoless double-beta decay.

  7. absolute standard hydrogen: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    absolute standard hydrogen First Page Previous Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 Hydrogen Storage CODES &...

  8. Thermal ghost imaging with averaged speckle patterns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shapiro, Jeffrey H.

    We present theoretical and experimental results showing that a thermal ghost imaging system can produce images of high quality even when it uses detectors so slow that they respond only to intensity-averaged (that is, ...

  9. Selling Geothermal Systems The "Average" Contractor

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Selling Geothermal Systems #12;The "Average" Contractor · History of sales procedures · Manufacturer Driven Procedures · What makes geothermal technology any harder to sell? #12;"It's difficult to sell a geothermal system." · It should

  10. Distributed Averaging Via Lifted Markov Chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jung, Kyomin

    Motivated by applications of distributed linear estimation, distributed control, and distributed optimization, we consider the question of designing linear iterative algorithms for computing the average of numbers in a ...

  11. The effective beta sensitivity to the incident neutron energy dependence of the absolute delayed neutron yields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    D'Angelo, A. (ENEA, Casaccia (Italy)); Filip, A. (Centre d'Etudes Nucleaires de Cadarache, Saint Paul lez Durance (France). Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique)

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The uncertainty of the [sup 235]U, [sup 239]Pu, and [sup 238]U absolute delayed neutron yields v[sub d] is one of the principal sources of uncertainty in predicting the fission reactor reactivity scale [beta][sub eff]. The current uncertainties in the dependence of v[sub d] on incident neutron energy is investigated for significance in the evaluation of [beta][sub eff]. The uncertainty effects on the GODIVA, JEZEBEL, Zero Power Reactor, SNEAK, and Masurca benchmark facility calculations are analyzed using ENDF/B and JEF basic data. Different assumptions about the energy dependence result in variations of up to 5% in the reactor spectrum averaged values of v[sub d], and these would result in variations of up to [approximately] 2% in the value of [beta][sub eff] for a typical liquid-metal fast breeder reactor.

  12. Self-averaging characteristics of spectral fluctuations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Petr Braun; Fritz Haake

    2014-10-20T23:59:59.000Z

    The spectral form factor as well as the two-point correlator of the density of (quasi-)energy levels of individual quantum dynamics are not self-averaging. Only suitable smoothing turns them into useful characteristics of spectra. We present numerical data for a fully chaotic kicked top, employing two types of smoothing: one involves primitives of the spectral correlator, the second a small imaginary part of the quasi-energy. Self-averaging universal (like the CUE average) behavior is found for the smoothed correlator, apart from noise which shrinks like $1\\over\\sqrt N$ as the dimension $N$ of the quantum Hilbert space grows. There are periodically repeated quasi-energy windows of correlation decay and revival wherein the smoothed correlation remains finite as $N\\to\\infty$ such that the noise is negligible. In between those windows (where the CUE averaged correlator takes on values of the order ${1\\over N^2}$) the noise becomes dominant and self-averaging is lost. We conclude that the noise forbids distinction of CUE and GUE type behavior. Surprisingly, the underlying smoothed generating function does not enjoy any self-averaging outside the range of its variables relevant for determining the two-point correlator (and certain higher-order ones). --- We corroborate our numerical findings for the noise by analytically determining the CUE variance of the smoothed single-matrix correlator.

  13. Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.

    1983-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)

  14. Absolute x-ray dosimetry on a synchrotron medical beam line with a graphite calorimeter

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harty, P. D., E-mail: Peter.Harty@arpansa.gov.au; Ramanathan, G.; Butler, D. J.; Johnston, P. N. [Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency, Yallambie, Victoria 3085 (Australia)] [Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency, Yallambie, Victoria 3085 (Australia); Lye, J. E. [Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency, Yallambie, Victoria 3085, Australia and Australian Clinical Dosimetry Service, Yallambie, Victoria 3085 (Australia)] [Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency, Yallambie, Victoria 3085, Australia and Australian Clinical Dosimetry Service, Yallambie, Victoria 3085 (Australia); Hall, C. J. [Imaging and Medical Beamline, Australian Synchrotron, Clayton, Victoria 3168 (Australia)] [Imaging and Medical Beamline, Australian Synchrotron, Clayton, Victoria 3168 (Australia); Stevenson, A. W. [Imaging and Medical Beamline, Australian Synchrotron, Clayton, Victoria 3168, Australia and CSIRO, Materials Science and Engineering, Clayton Sth Victoria 3169 (Australia)] [Imaging and Medical Beamline, Australian Synchrotron, Clayton, Victoria 3168, Australia and CSIRO, Materials Science and Engineering, Clayton Sth Victoria 3169 (Australia)

    2014-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Purpose: The absolute dose rate of the Imaging and Medical Beamline (IMBL) on the Australian Synchrotron was measured with a graphite calorimeter. The calorimetry results were compared to measurements from the existing free-air chamber, to provide a robust determination of the absolute dose in the synchrotron beam and provide confidence in the first implementation of a graphite calorimeter on a synchrotron medical beam line. Methods: The graphite calorimeter has a core which rises in temperature when irradiated by the beam. A collimated x-ray beam from the synchrotron with well-defined edges was used to partially irradiate the core. Two filtration sets were used, one corresponding to an average beam energy of about 80 keV, with dose rate about 50?Gy/s, and the second filtration set corresponding to average beam energy of 90 keV, with dose rate about 20 Gy/s. The temperature rise from this beam was measured by a calibrated thermistor embedded in the core which was then converted to absorbed dose to graphite by multiplying the rise in temperature by the specific heat capacity for graphite and the ratio of cross-sectional areas of the core and beam. Conversion of the measured absorbed dose to graphite to absorbed dose to water was achieved using Monte Carlo calculations with the EGSnrc code. The air kerma measurements from the free-air chamber were converted to absorbed dose to water using the AAPM TG-61 protocol. Results: Absolute measurements of the IMBL dose rate were made using the graphite calorimeter and compared to measurements with the free-air chamber. The measurements were at three different depths in graphite and two different filtrations. The calorimetry measurements at depths in graphite show agreement within 1% with free-air chamber measurements, when converted to absorbed dose to water. The calorimetry at the surface and free-air chamber results show agreement of order 3% when converted to absorbed dose to water. The combined standard uncertainty is 3.9%. Conclusions: The good agreement of the graphite calorimeter and free-air chamber results indicates that both devices are performing as expected. Further investigations at higher dose rates than 50?Gy/s are planned. At higher dose rates, recombination effects for the free-air chamber are much higher and expected to lead to much larger uncertainties. Since the graphite calorimeter does not have problems associated with dose rate, it is an appropriate primary standard detector for the synchrotron IMBL x rays and is the more accurate dosimeter for the higher dose rates expected in radiotherapy applications.

  15. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  16. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  17. Correction due to finite speed of light in absolute gravimeters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagornyi, V D; Zanimonskiy, Y Y

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Correction due to finite speed of light is among the most inconsistent ones in absolute gravimetry. Formulas reported by different authors yield corrections scattered up to 8 $\\mu$Gal with no obvious reasons. The problem, though noted before, has never been studied, and nowadays the correction is rather postulated than rigorously proven. In this paper we investigate the problem from several prospectives, find the corrections for different types of absolute gravimeters, and establish relationships between different ways of implement them. The obtained results enabled us to analyze and understand the discrepancies in the results of other authors. We found that the correction derived from the Doppler effect is accountable only for $\\tfrac{2}{3}$ of the total correction due to finite speed of light, if no signal delays are considered. Another major source of inconsistency was found in the tacit use of simplified trajectory models.

  18. In Self-contradiction, Machian Geocentrism Entails Absolute Space

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hartman, Herbert I

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Luka Popov has attempted to advance Machian physics by maintaining that the heliocentric system must be replaced by Tycho Brahe's geocentric system. We show that while geocentrism relies on Mach's contention that accelerations are relative, this contention is untenable because, inter alia, the consequences of an acceleration of an object with respect to the fixed stars cannot be duplicated by acceleration of the stars with respect to this object and, if the universe and a co-rotating observer have the same angular velocity, this motion is detectable because they have different linear velocities. Also, geocentrism precludes the relativity of accelerations and leads to an absolute space while Mach argued against absolute space, Popov's result that the force exerted by the Earth on the Sun depends on the square of the Sun's mass but is independent of the Earth's mass is paradoxical, and the annual asymmetry of the Cosmic Microwave Background falsifies all geocentric or 'Tychonic/Brahean) systems.

  19. Polarized electron beams at milliampere average current

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poelker, Matthew [JLAB

    2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This contribution describes some of the challenges associated with developing a polarized electron source capable of uninterrupted days-long operation at milliAmpere average beam current with polarization greater than 80%. Challenges will be presented in the context of assessing the required level of extrapolation beyond the performance of today's CEBAF polarized source operating at ~ 200 uA average current. Estimates of performance at higher current will be based on hours-long demonstrations at 1 and 4 mA. Particular attention will be paid to beam-related lifetime-limiting mechanisms, and strategies to construct a photogun that operate reliably at bias voltage > 350kV.

  20. Absolute Source Activity Measurement with a Single Detector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bikit, I.; Nemes, T.; Mrdja, D.; Forkapic, S. [Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovica 4, 21 000 Novi Sad (Serbia)

    2009-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

    In the present paper the activity of {sup 60}Co source was measured using the full absorption, sum and random coincidences (pile up) peaks and the total spectrum area in the gamma spectra. By the exact treatment of the chance coincidence and pile-up events, surprisingly good results were obtained. With the source on the detector end-cap (when the angular correlation effects are negligible), this simple method yields absolute activity values deviating from the reference activity for about 1 percent.

  1. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  2. Extracting gluon condensate from the average plaquette

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Taekoon

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The perturbative contribution in the average plaquette is subtracted using Borel summation and the remnant of the plaquette is shown to scale as a dim-4 condensate. A critical review is presented of the renormalon subtraction scheme that claimed a dim-2 condensate. The extracted gluon condensate is compared with the latest result employing high order (35-loop) calculation in the stochastic perturbation theory.

  3. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    it can generate as much or more energy that it needs ? Building activities need N kWhrs per day (solar panels, heating, etc) ? Harvested from solar panels & passive solar. Amount depends on weather ? NWP models forecast DSWRF @ surface (MJ/m2...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/SolarScribe/SolarScribe/ CMC NWP datasets for Day 2 Forecasts ? Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) ? RDPS raw model data ? 10 km resolution, North America, 000-054 forecasts ? Data at: http...

  4. Forecasting model of the PEPCO service area economy. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Volume III describes and documents the regional economic model of the PEPCO service area which was relied upon to develop many of the assumptions of future values of economic and demographic variables used in the forecast. The PEPCO area model is mathematically linked to the Wharton long-term forecast of the U.S. Volume III contains a technical discussion of the structure of the regional model and presents the regional economic forecast.

  5. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  6. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications Computational Advances in Applied...

  7. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  8. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  9. Forecasting the underlying potential governing climatic time series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Livina, V N; Mudelsee, M; Lenton, T M

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for `potential analysis' of climatic tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting climate transitions and bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis.

  10. Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment, provides an authoritative voice on the...

  11. analytical energy forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    COMMISSION Tom Gorin Lynn Marshall Principal Author Tom Gorin Project 11 Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Computer Technologies and...

  12. Econometric model and futures markets commodity price forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Just, Richard E.; Rausser, Gordon C.

    1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Versus CCll1rnercial Econometric M:ldels." Uni- versity ofWorking Paper No. 72 ECONOMETRIC ! 'econometric forecasts with the futures

  13. Optimization Online - Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. Fisher

    2007-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Feb 14, 2007 ... Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization. M. Fisher(Mike.Fisher ***at*** ecmwf.int)

  14. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  15. Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gordon, Geoffrey J.

    Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery , Michael Trick Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. nihat

  16. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  17. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast With natural gas prices significantlyto the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEO 2004 and AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely once

  18. Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wickham, Richard Robert

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is arguably the most critical component of airline management. Essentially, airlines forecast demand to plan the supply of services to respond to that demand. Forecasts of short-term demand facilitate tactical ...

  19. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  20. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  1. Polarized electron beams at milliampere average current

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poelker, M. [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility, Newport News, Virginia 23606 (United States)

    2013-11-07T23:59:59.000Z

    This contribution describes some of the challenges associated with developing a polarized electron source capable of uninterrupted days-long operation at milliAmpere average beam current with polarization greater than 80%. Challenges will be presented in the context of assessing the required level of extrapolation beyond the performance of today’s CEBAF polarized source operating at ? 200 uA average current. Estimates of performance at higher current will be based on hours-long demonstrations at 1 and 4 mA. Particular attention will be paid to beam-related lifetime-limiting mechanisms, and strategies to construct a photogun that operate reliably at bias voltage > 350kV.

  2. Renewable Forecast Min-Max2020.xls

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's PossibleRadiation Protection Technical s o Freiberge s 3 c/)RenewableRenewable EnergyForecast of

  3. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC) Environmental Assessments (EA)Budget(DANCE) Target 1Annual Waste Forecast and Funding

  4. Absolute Efficiency Calibration of a Beta-Gamma Detector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooper, Matthew W.; Ely, James H.; Haas, Derek A.; Hayes, James C.; McIntyre, Justin I.; Lidey, Lance S.; Schrom, Brian T.

    2013-04-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Abstract- Identification and quantification of nuclear events such as the Fukushima reactor failure and nuclear explosions rely heavily on the accurate measurement of radioxenon releases. One radioxenon detection method depends on detecting beta-gamma coincident events paired with a stable xenon measurement to determine the concentration of a plume. Like all measurements, the beta-gamma method relies on knowing the detection efficiency for each isotope measured. Several methods are commonly used to characterize the detection efficiency for a beta-gamma detector. The most common method is using a NIST certified sealed source to determine the efficiency. A second method determines the detection efficiencies relative to an already characterized detector. Finally, a potentially more accurate method is to use the expected sample to perform an absolute efficiency calibration; in the case of a beta-gamma detector, this relies on radioxenon gas samples. The complication of the first method is it focuses only on the gamma detectors and does not offer a solution for determining the beta efficiency. The second method listed is not similarly constrained, however it relies on another detector to have a well-known efficiency calibration. The final method using actual radioxenon samples to make an absolute efficiency determination is the most desirable, but until recently it was not possible to produce all four isotopically pure radioxenon. The production, by University of Texas (UT), of isotopically pure radioxenon has allowed the beta-gamma detectors to be calibrated using the absolute efficiency method. The first four radioxenon isotope calibration will be discussed is this paper.

  5. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William (Overland Park, KS)

    2007-07-03T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  6. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William (Overland Park, KS)

    2007-10-02T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  7. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William (Overland Park, KS)

    2007-07-17T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  8. Quantum bath refrigeration towards absolute zero: unattainability principle challenged

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Michal Kolá?; David Gelbwaser-Klimovsky; Robert Alicki; Gershon Kurizki

    2012-08-05T23:59:59.000Z

    A minimal model of a quantum refrigerator (QR), i.e. a periodically phase-flipped two-level system permanently coupled to a finite-capacity bath (cold bath) and an infinite heat dump (hot bath), is introduced and used to investigate the cooling of the cold bath towards the absolute zero (T=0). Remarkably, the temperature scaling of the cold-bath cooling rate reveals that it does not vanish as T->0 for certain realistic quantized baths, e.g. phonons in strongly disordered media (fractons) or quantized spin-waves in ferromagnets (magnons). This result challenges Nernst's third-law formulation known as the unattainability principle.

  9. Optimized replica gas estimation of absolute integrals and partition functions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Minh, D. (Biosciences Division)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In contrast with most Monte Carlo integration algorithms, which are used to estimate ratios, the replica gas identities recently introduced by Adib enable the estimation of absolute integrals and partition functions using multiple copies of a system and normalized transition functions. Here, an optimized form is presented. After generalizing a replica gas identity with an arbitrary weighting function, we obtain a functional form that has the minimal asymptotic variance for samples from two replicas and is provably good for a larger number. This equation is demonstrated to improve the convergence of partition function estimates in a two-dimensional Ising model.

  10. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William (Overland Park, KS)

    2008-10-21T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  11. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William (Overland Park, KS)

    2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  12. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  13. Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

  14. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime meteorological data from sites upwind of wind farms can be efficiently used to improve short-term forecasts acknowledges the support of PPM Energy, Inc. The data used in this work were obtained from Oregon State

  15. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  16. A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansens, Jim

    A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

  17. RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Manry, Michael

    a mixture of hydroelectric and non- hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend, and to economically allocate the load between various non-hydroelectric plants. Neural networks provide an attractive technology for inflow forecasting, because of (1) their success in power load forecasting 1- 6 , and (2

  18. Introducing the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster Aston Chipanshi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miami, University of

    for crop yield forecasting and risk analysis. Using the Census Agriculture Region (CAR) as the unit Climate Decision Support and Adaptation, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1011, Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK S7V 1B7, Canada The Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF) is a statistical modelling tool

  19. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    have to be jointly taken into account in some decision-making problems, e.g. offshore wind farmWind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number

  20. Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power................................................ 14 2.2.3 Critical Processes for Wind Forecast

  1. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012 includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low energy demand case, and a mid energy demand

  2. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST, and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption STAFFFINALREPORT NOVEMBER 2007 CEC-200-2007-015-SF2 Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor #12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY

  3. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Manager Kae Lewis Acting Manager Demand Analysis Office Valerie T. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency Demand Forecast report is the product of the efforts of many current and former California Energy

  4. Distribution Based Data Filtering for Financial Time Series Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bailey, James

    recent past. In this paper, we address the challenge of forecasting the behavior of time series using@unimelb.edu.au Abstract. Changes in the distribution of financial time series, particularly stock market prices, can of stock prices, which aims to forecast the future values of the price of a stock, in order to obtain

  5. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co for the modeled wind- CAES system would not cover annualized capital costs. We also estimate market prices-ahead market is roughly $100, with large variability due to electric power prices. Wind power forecast errors

  6. FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keller, Arturo A.

    resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

  7. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    - namic reserve quantification [8], for the optimal oper- ation of combined wind-hydro power plants [5, 1Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power

  8. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    -- Photovoltaic systems, Batteries, Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION This paper presents first results of a study Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  9. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    of the forecasting algorithm for the different conditions. 1. INTRODUCTION According to the U.S. Department of Energy could take advantage of times when electricity cost is lower, to chill a cold water storage tankForecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines

  10. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  11. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  12. Is dark energy an effect of averaging?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nan Li; Marina Seikel; Dominik J. Schwarz

    2008-01-22T23:59:59.000Z

    The present standard model of cosmology states that the known particles carry only a tiny fraction of total mass and energy of the Universe. Rather, unknown dark matter and dark energy are the dominant contributions to the cosmic energy budget. We review the logic that leads to the postulated dark energy and present an alternative point of view, in which the puzzle may be solved by properly taking into account the influence of cosmic structures on global observables. We illustrate the effect of averaging on the measurement of the Hubble constant.

  13. Absolute Values of Neutrino Masses: Status and Prospects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. M. Bilenky; C. Giunti; J. A. Grifols; E. Masso

    2003-03-27T23:59:59.000Z

    Compelling evidences in favor of neutrino masses and mixing obtained in the last years in Super-Kamiokande, SNO, KamLAND and other neutrino experiments made the physics of massive and mixed neutrinos a frontier field of research in particle physics and astrophysics. There are many open problems in this new field. In this review we consider the problem of the absolute values of neutrino masses, which apparently is the most difficult one from the experimental point of view. We discuss the present limits and the future prospects of beta-decay neutrino mass measurements and neutrinoless double-beta decay. We consider the important problem of the calculation of nuclear matrix elements of neutrinoless double-beta decay and discuss the possibility to check the results of different model calculations of the nuclear matrix elements through their comparison with the experimental data. We discuss the upper bound of the total mass of neutrinos that was obtained recently from the data of the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey and other cosmological data and we discuss future prospects of the cosmological measurements of the total mass of neutrinos. We discuss also the possibility to obtain information on neutrino masses from the observation of the ultra high-energy cosmic rays (beyond the GZK cutoff). Finally, we review the main aspects of the physics of core-collapse supernovae, the limits on the absolute values of neutrino masses from the observation of SN1987A neutrinos and the future prospects of supernova neutrino detection.

  14. NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt Global Insight, paid for by the West Virginia Department of Revenue. 2013 WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWest Virginia Economic Outlook 2013 is published by: Bureau of Business & Economic Research West

  15. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  16. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  17. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  18. Fact #870: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Fact 870: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress, 1978-2014 Fact 870: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress, 1978-2014 The Corporate Average Fuel...

  19. Average transverse momentum quantities approaching the lightfront

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Daniel Boer

    2014-09-29T23:59:59.000Z

    In this contribution to Light Cone 2014, three average transverse momentum quantities are discussed: the Sivers shift, the dijet imbalance, and the $p_T$ broadening. The definitions of these quantities involve integrals over all transverse momenta that are overly sensitive to the region of large transverse momenta, which conveys little information about the transverse momentum distributions of quarks and gluons inside hadrons. TMD factorization naturally suggests alternative definitions of such integrated quantities, using Bessel-weighting and rapidity cut-offs, with the conventional definitions as limiting cases. The regularized quantities are given in terms of integrals over the TMDs of interest that are well-defined and moreover have the advantage of being amenable to lattice evaluations.

  20. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  1. Method and apparatus for making absolute range measurements

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Earl, Dennis D. (Knoxville, TN); Allison, Stephen W. (Knoxville, TN); Cates, Michael R. (Oak Ridge, TN); Sanders, Alvin J. (Knoxville, TN)

    2002-09-24T23:59:59.000Z

    This invention relates to a method and apparatus for making absolute distance or ranging measurements using Fresnel diffraction. The invention employs a source of electromagnetic radiation having a known wavelength or wavelength distribution, which sends a beam of electromagnetic radiation through a screen at least partially opaque at the wavelength. The screen has an aperture sized so as to produce a Fresnel diffraction pattern. A portion of the beam travels through the aperture to a detector spaced some distance from the screen. The detector detects the central intensity of the beam as well as a set of intensities displaced from a center of the aperture. The distance from the source to the target can then be calculated based upon the known wavelength, aperture radius, and beam intensity.

  2. Absolute Values of Neutrino Masses implied by the Seesaw Mechanism

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tsujimoto, H

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    It is found that the seesaw mechanism not only explain the smallness of neutrino masses but also account for the large mixing angles simultaneously, once the unification of the neutrino Dirac mass matrix with that of up-quark sector is realized. We show that provided the Majorana masses have hierarchical structure as is seen in the up-quark sector, we can reduce the information about the absolute values of neutrino masses through the data set of neutrino experiments. The results for the light neutrino masses are $m_1:m_2:m_3\\approx 1:3:17$ $(m_1\\simeq m_2:m_3\\approx 1.2:1)$ in the case of normal mass spectrum (inverted mass spectrum), and the heaviest Majorana mass turns out to be $m_3^R=1\\times 10^{15}$ GeV which just corresponds to the GUT scale.

  3. THE ABSOLUTE CALIBRATION OF THE EUV IMAGING SPECTROMETER ON HINODE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Warren, Harry P. [Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States); Ugarte-Urra, Ignacio [College of Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030 (United States); Landi, Enrico [Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States)

    2014-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We investigate the absolute calibration of the EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) on Hinode by comparing EIS full-disk mosaics with irradiance observations from the EUV Variability Experiment on the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We also use extended observations of the quiet corona above the limb combined with a simple differential emission measure model to establish new effective area curves that incorporate information from the most recent atomic physics calculations. We find that changes to the EIS instrument sensitivity are a complex function of both time and wavelength. We find that the sensitivity is decaying exponentially with time and that the decay constants vary with wavelength. The EIS short wavelength channel shows significantly longer decay times than the long wavelength channel.

  4. The chromospherically active binary star EI Eridani I. Absolute dimensions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. Washuettl; K. G. Strassmeier; T. Granzer; M. Weber; K. Oláh

    2008-09-04T23:59:59.000Z

    We present a detailed determination of the astrophysical parameters of the chromospherically active binary star EI Eridani. Our new radial velocities allow to improve the set of orbital elements and reveal long-term variations of the barycentric velocity. A possible third-body orbit with a period of approximately 19 years is presented. Absolute parameters are determined in combination with the Hipparcos parallax. EI Eri's inclination angle of the rotational axis is confined to 56.0 plus/minus 4.5 degrees, its luminosity class IV is confirmed by its radius of 2.37 plus/minus 0.12 R_Sun. A comparison to theoretical stellar evolutionary tracks suggests a mass of 1.09 plus/minus 0.05 M_Sun and an age of approximately 6.15 Gyr. The present investigation is the basis of our long-term Doppler imaging study of its stellar surface.

  5. Conductance and absolutely continuous spectrum of 1D samples

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laurent Bruneau; Vojkan Jakši?; Yoram Last; Claude-Alain Pillet

    2015-04-27T23:59:59.000Z

    We characterize the absolutely continuous spectrum of the one-dimensional Schr\\"odinger operators $h=-\\Delta+v$ acting on $\\ell^2(\\mathbb{Z}_+)$ in terms of the limiting behavior of the Landauer-B\\"uttiker and Thouless conductances of the associated finite samples. The finite sample is defined by restricting $h$ to a finite interval $[1,L]\\cap\\mathbb{Z}_+$ and the conductance refers to the charge current across the sample in the open quantum system obtained by attaching independent electronic reservoirs to the sample ends. Our main result is that the conductances associated to an energy interval $I$ are non-vanishing in the limit $L\\to\\infty$ iff ${\\rm sp}_{\\rm ac}(h)\\cap I=\\emptyset$. We also discuss the relationship between this result and the Schr\\"odinger Conjecture.

  6. Upgrade of absolute extreme ultraviolet diagnostic on J-TEXT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, X. L.; Cheng, Z. F., E-mail: chengfe@hust.edu.cn; Hou, S. Y.; Zhuang, G.; Luo, J. [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074 (China)

    2014-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The absolute extreme ultraviolet (AXUV) diagnostic system is used for radiation observation on J-TEXT tokamak [J. Zhang, G. Zhuang, Z. J. Wang, Y. H. Ding, X. Q. Zhang, and Y. J. Tang, Rev. Sci. Instrum. 81, 073509 (2010)]. The upgrade of the AXUV system is aimed to improve the spatial resolution and provide a three-dimensional image on J-TEXT. The new system consists of 12 AXUV arrays (4 AXUV16ELG arrays, 8 AXUV20ELG arrays). The spatial resolution in the cross-section is 21 mm for the AXUV16ELG arrays and 17 mm for the AXUV20ELG arrays. The pre-amplifier is also upgraded for a higher signal to noise ratio. By upgrading the AXUV imaging system, a more accurate observation on the radiation information is obtained.

  7. Absolute Measurement Of Laminar Shear Rate Using Photon Correlation Spectroscopy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Elliot Jenner; Brian D'Urso

    2015-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

    An absolute measurement of the components of the shear rate tensor $\\mathcal{S}$ in a fluid can be found by measuring the photon correlation function of light scattered from particles in the fluid. Previous methods of measuring $\\mathcal{S}$ involve reading the velocity at various points and extrapolating the shear, which can be time consuming and is limited in its ability to examine small spatial scale or short time events. Previous work in Photon Correlation Spectroscopy has involved only approximate solutions, requiring free parameters to be scaled by a known case, or different cases, such as 2-D flows, but here we present a treatment that provides quantitative results directly and without calibration for full 3-D flow. We demonstrate this treatment experimentally with a cone and plate rheometer.

  8. Absolute properties of the eclipsing binary star IM Persei

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lacy, Claud H. Sandberg [Physics Department, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR 72701 (United States); Torres, Guillermo [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Fekel, Francis C.; Muterspaugh, Matthew W. [Center of Excellence in Information Systems, Tennessee State University, Nashville, TN 37209 (United States); Southworth, John, E-mail: clacy@uark.edu, E-mail: gtorres@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: fekel@evans.tsuniv.edu, E-mail: matthew1@coe.tsuniv.edu, E-mail: astro.js@keele.ac.uk [Astrophysics Group, Keele University, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG (United Kingdom)

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    IM Per is a detached A7 eccentric eclipsing binary star. We have obtained extensive measurements of the light curve (28,225 differential magnitude observations) and radial velocity curve (81 spectroscopic observations) which allow us to fit orbits and determine the absolute properties of the components very accurately: masses of 1.7831 ± 0.0094 and 1.7741 ± 0.0097 solar masses, and radii of 2.409 ± 0.018 and 2.366 ± 0.017 solar radii. The orbital period is 2.25422694(15) days and the eccentricity is 0.0473(26). A faint third component was detected in the analysis of the light curves, and also directly observed in the spectra. The observed rate of apsidal motion is consistent with theory (U = 151.4 ± 8.4 year). We determine a distance to the system of 566 ± 46 pc.

  9. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  10. Fact #693: September 19, 2011 Average Vehicle Footprint for Cars...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    and the average track width of the vehicle. The upcoming Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards have fuel economy targets based on the vehicle footprint. The...

  11. average atom model: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    (chemical potential, average ionic charge, free electron density, bound and continuum wave-functions and occupation numbers) are obtained from the average-atom model. The...

  12. November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shyy, Wei

    November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade in Services and the Current Account, 2000 of Forecast*** We forecast that the services trade surplus, which declined from 1997 to 1998 and edged upward. That is, from a level of $80.6 billion in 1999, we forecast that the services trade surplus will be $80

  13. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  14. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  15. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  16. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  17. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  18. ASSESSING THE QUALITY AND ECONOMIC VALUE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katz, Richard

    INFORMATION SYSTEM · Forecast -- Conditional probability distribution for event Z = z indicates forecast tornado #12;(1.2) FRAMEWORK · Joint Distribution of Observations & Forecasts Observed Weather = Forecast probability p (e.g., induced by Z) · Reliability Diagram Observed weather: = 1 (Adverse weather occurs) = 0

  19. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    GEPS 21 members ? Provides probabilistic forecasts ? Can give useful outlooks for longer term weather forecasts ? Scribe matrix from GDPS ? includes UMOS post processed model data ? Variables like Temperature, humidity post processed by UMOS ? See...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products/ ? Link to experimental 3-day outlook of REPS quilts ? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products.reps Users can also make their own products from ensemble forecast data? Sample ascii matrix of 2m temperature could be fed...

  20. Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Allanach, B C; Cranmer, Kyle; Lester, Christopher G; Weber, Arne M

    2007-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    ar X iv :0 70 5. 04 87 v3 [ he p- ph ] 5 J ul 20 07 Preprint typeset in JHEP style - HYPER VERSION DAMTP-2007-18 Cavendish-HEP-2007-03 MPP-2007-36 Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts Benjamin C Allanach1, Kyle Cranmer2... ’s likely discoveries. There are big differences between nature of the questions answered by a forecast, and the ques- tions that will be answered by the experiments themselves when they have acquired compelling data. A weather forecast predicting “severe...

  1. Absolute measurement of the viscosity of classical and quantum fluids by rotating-cylinder viscometers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Donnelly, R.J.; LaMar, M.M.

    1987-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We discuss the use of rotating-cylinder viscometers to determine absolute shear viscosities of classical fluids and of helium II in the context of past and current knowledge of the stability and flow of these fluids between concentric cylinders. We identify a problem in measuring the absolute viscosity when the inner cylinder is rotating and the outer cylinder is at rest. We conclude by discussing the design of viscometers for absolute viscosity measurements in helium I and helium II.

  2. APPENDIX A: MONTHLY AVERAGED DATA In many instances monthly averaged data are

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oregon, University of

    for solar energy and climatic applications. Click on the buttons on the left to find out more about the lab for preliminary estimates of solar system performance. This section provides a summary of monthly averaged data for all sites in watt hours/meter2 per hour or day. For each site and each solar measurement the data

  3. Further Developments of a Robust Absolute Calibration Method Utilizing Beta/Gamma Coincidence Techniques

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McIntyre, Justin I.; Cooper, Matthew W.; Ely, James H.; Haas, Derek A.; Schrom, Brian T.; Warren, Glen A.

    2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This is a conference proceedings from the MARC conference. It discusses the research conducted into an alternative method of detector calibration and absolute activity measurement.

  4. absolute single-molecule entropies: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Page Last Page Topic Index 1 A simulation method for calculating the absolute entropy and free energy of fluids: Application to Chemistry Websites Summary: A simulation method for...

  5. E-Print Network 3.0 - absolute zero temperature Sample Search...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Quantum Gases Group Collection: Physics 47 Radiometric Modeling of Mechanical Draft Cooling Towers to Assist in the Extraction of their Absolute Temperature from Summary: of...

  6. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  7. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  8. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  9. OCTOBER-NOVEMBER FORECAST FOR 2014 CARIBBEAN BASIN HURRICANE ACTIVITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    and hurricanes, but instead predicts both hurricane days and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Typically, while) tropical cyclone (TC) activity. We have decided to issue this forecast, because Klotzbach (2011) has

  10. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  11. A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

  12. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Agency: 1982-2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington,Agency: 2004, Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation,Agency: 2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C.

  13. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Energy2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Granger,Paper ???? The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric

  14. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  15. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  16. Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levinson, David M.

    Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1 David Levinson 2 February, the assumed networks to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went

  17. africa conditional forecasts: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  18. accident risk forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  19. Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Xiaorong

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GARCH...

  20. Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romo, Juan

    Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap Lorenzo Pascual, Juan generated by GARCH processes. The main advantage over other bootstrap methods previously proposed for GARCH by having conditional heteroscedasticity. Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH

  1. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  2. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  3. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  4. An econometric analysis and forecasting of Seoul office market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Kyungmin

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines and forecasts the Seoul office market, which is going to face a big supply in the next few years. After reviewing several previous studies on the Dynamic model and the Seoul Office market, this thesis ...

  5. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  6. Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan

    Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems? M. Hashem Pesaran Cambridge University and USC Andreas Pick De Nederlandsche Bank and Cambridge University, CIMF Allan Timmermann UC San Diego and CREATES January 26, 2009...

  7. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  8. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  9. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties associated with the best...

  10. Spatial distribution of average charge state and deposition rate in high power impulse magnetron sputtering of copper

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anders, Andre; Horwat, David; Anders, Andre

    2008-05-10T23:59:59.000Z

    The spatial distribution of copper ions and atoms in high power impulse magnetron sputtering (HIPIMS) discharges was determined by (i) measuring the ion current to electrostatic probes and (ii) measuring the film thickness by profilometry. A set of electrostatic and collection probes were placed at different angular positions and distances from the target surface. The angular distribution of the deposition rate and the average charge state of the copper species (including ions and neutrals) were deduced.The discharge showed a distinct transition to a high current mode dominated by copper self-sputtering when the applied voltage exceeded the threshold of 535 V. For a lower voltage, the deposition rate was very low and the average charge state was found to be less than 0.4. For higher voltage (and average power), the absolute deposition rates were much higher, but they were smaller than the corresponding direct current (DC) rates if normalized to the same average power. At the high voltage level, the spatial distribution of the average charge state showed some similarities with the distribution of the magnetic field, suggesting that the generation and motion of copper ions is affected by magnetized electrons. At higher voltage, the average charge state increases with the distance from the target and locally may exceed unity, indicating the presence of significant amounts of doubly charged copper ions.

  11. Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awwad, Haitham Munir

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas AkM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May... 1991 Major Subject: Civil Engineering STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Approved as to style and content by: uan B. Valdes (Chair of Committee) alph A. Wurbs (Member) Marshall J. Mc...

  12. A model for short term electric load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tigue, John Robert

    1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

  13. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  14. Absolute Values of Neutrino Masses implied by the Seesaw Mechanism

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    H. Tsujimoto

    2005-12-12T23:59:59.000Z

    It is found that the seesaw mechanism not only explain the smallness of neutrino masses but also account for the large mixing angles simultaneously, even if the unification of the neutrino Dirac mass matrix with that of up-type quark sector is realized. We show that provided the Majorana masses have hierarchical structure as is seen in the up-type quark sector and all mass matrices are real, we can reduce the information about the absolute values of neutrino masses through the data set of neutrino experiments. Especially for $\\theta_{13}=0$, we found that the neutrino masses are decided as $m_1:m_2:m_3\\approx 1:3:17$ or $1:50:250$ ($m_1\\simeq m_2:m_3\\approx 3:1$ or $12:1$) in the case of normal mass spectrum (inverted mass spectrum), and the greatest Majorana mass turns out to be $m_3^R=1\\times 10^{15}$ GeV which just corresponds to the GUT scale. Including the decoupling effects caused by three singlet neutrinos, we also perform a renormalization group analysis to fix the neutrino Yukawa coupling matrix at low energy.

  15. INTERPRETATION OF THE ARCADE 2 ABSOLUTE SKY BRIGHTNESS MEASUREMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seiffert, M.; Levin, S. M. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Fixsen, D. J.; Kogut, A.; Wollack, E. [University of Maryland, Code 665, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Limon, M. [Columbia Astrophysics Laboratory, 550W 120th St., Mail Code 5247, New York, NY 10027-6902 (United States); Lubin, P. M. [Physics Department, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); Mirel, P. [Wyle Informations Systems, Code 665, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Singal, J. [Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Menlo Park, CA 94025 (United States); Villela, T.; Wuensche, C. A., E-mail: Michael.D.Seiffert@jpl.nasa.gov [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisao de Astrofisica, Caixa Postal 515, 12245-970-Sao Jose dos Campos, SP (Brazil)

    2011-06-10T23:59:59.000Z

    We use absolutely calibrated data between 3 and 90 GHz from the 2006 balloon flight of the ARCADE 2 instrument, along with previous measurements at other frequencies, to constrain models of extragalactic emission. Such emission is a combination of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) monopole, Galactic foreground emission, the integrated contribution of radio emission from external galaxies, any spectral distortions present in the CMB, and any other extragalactic source. After removal of estimates of foreground emission from our own Galaxy, and an estimated contribution of external galaxies, we present fits to a combination of the flat-spectrum CMB and potential spectral distortions in the CMB. We find 2{sigma} upper limits to CMB spectral distortions of {mu} < 6 x 10{sup -4} and |Y{sub ff}| < 1 x 10{sup -4}. We also find a significant detection of a residual signal beyond that, which can be explained by the CMB plus the integrated radio emission from galaxies estimated from existing surveys. This residual signal may be due to an underestimated galactic foreground contribution, an unaccounted for contribution of a background of radio sources, or some combination of both. The residual signal is consistent with emission in the form of a power law with amplitude 18.4 {+-} 2.1 K at 0.31 GHz and a spectral index of -2.57 {+-} 0.05.

  16. Method and apparatus for making absolute range measurements

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Allison, S.W.; Cates, M.R.; Key, W.S.; Sanders, A.J.; Earl, D.D.

    1999-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

    This invention relates to a method and apparatus for making absolute distance or ranging measurements using Fresnel diffraction. The invention employs a source of electromagnetic radiation having a known wavelength or wavelength distribution, which sends a beam of electromagnetic radiation through an object which causes it to be split (hereinafter referred to as a beam splitter''), and then to a target. The beam is reflected from the target onto a screen containing an aperture spaced a known distance from the beam splitter. The aperture is sized so as to produce a Fresnel diffraction pattern. A portion of the beam travels through the aperture to a detector, spaced a known distance from the screen. The detector detects the central intensity of the beam. The distance from the object which causes the beam to be split to the target can then be calculated based upon the known wavelength, aperture radius, beam intensity, and distance from the detector to the screen. Several apparatus embodiments are disclosed for practicing the method embodiments of the present invention. 9 figs.

  17. Method and apparatus for making absolute range measurements

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Allison, Stephen W. (Knoxville, TN); Cates, Michael R. (Oak Ridge, TN); Key, William S. (Knoxville, TN); Sanders, Alvin J. (Knoxville, TN); Earl, Dennis D. (Knoxville, TN)

    1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This invention relates to a method and apparatus for making absolute distance or ranging measurements using Fresnel diffraction. The invention employs a source of electromagnetic radiation having a known wavelength or wavelength distribution, which sends a beam of electromagnetic radiation through an object which causes it to be split (hereinafter referred to as a "beamsplitter"), and then to a target. The beam is reflected from the target onto a screen containing an aperture spaced a known distance from the beamsplitter. The aperture is sized so as to produce a Fresnel diffraction pattern. A portion of the beam travels through the aperture to a detector, spaced a known distance from the screen. The detector detects the central intensity of the beam. The distance from the object which causes the beam to be split to the target can then be calculated based upon the known wavelength, aperture radius, beam intensity, and distance from the detector to the screen. Several apparatus embodiments are disclosed for practicing the method embodiments of the present invention.

  18. Precision absolute-value amplifier for a precision voltmeter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hearn, W.E.; Rondeau, D.J.

    1982-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    Bipolar inputs are afforded by the plus inputs of first and second differential input amplifiers. A first gain determining resistor is connected between the minus inputs of the differential amplifiers. First and second diodes are connected between the respective minus inputs and the respective outputs of the differential amplifiers. First and second FETs have their gates connected to the outputs of the amplifiers, while their respective source and drain circuits are connected between the respective minus inputs and an output lead extending to a load resistor. The output current through the load resistor is proportional to the absolute value of the input voltage difference between the bipolar input terminals. A third differential amplifier has its plus input terminal connected to the load resistor. A second gain determining resistor is connected between the minus input of the third differential amplifier and a voltage source. A third FET has its gate connected to the output of the third amplifier. The source and drain circuit of the third transistor is connected between the minus input of the third amplifier and a voltage-frequency converter, constituting an output device. A polarity detector is also provided, comprising a pair of transistors having their inputs connected to the outputs of the first and second differential amplifiers. The outputs of the polarity detector are connected to gates which switch the output of the voltage-frequency converter between up and down counting outputs.

  19. Precision absolute value amplifier for a precision voltmeter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hearn, William E. (Berkeley, CA); Rondeau, Donald J. (El Sobrante, CA)

    1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Bipolar inputs are afforded by the plus inputs of first and second differential input amplifiers. A first gain determining resister is connected between the minus inputs of the differential amplifiers. First and second diodes are connected between the respective minus inputs and the respective outputs of the differential amplifiers. First and second FETs have their gates connected to the outputs of the amplifiers, while their respective source and drain circuits are connected between the respective minus inputs and an output lead extending to a load resister. The output current through the load resister is proportional to the absolute value of the input voltage difference between the bipolar input terminals. A third differential amplifier has its plus input terminal connected to the load resister. A second gain determining resister is connected between the minus input of the third differential amplifier and a voltage source. A third FET has its gate connected to the output of the third amplifier. The source and drain circuit of the third transistor is connected between the minus input of the third amplifier and a voltage-frequency converter, constituting an output device. A polarity detector is also provided, comprising a pair of transistors having their inputs connected to the outputs of the first and second differential amplifiers. The outputs of the polarity detector are connected to gates which switch the output of the voltage-frequency converter between up and down counting outputs.

  20. Daily pollution forecast using optimal meteorological data at synoptic and local scales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Russo, Ana; Raischel, Frank; Trigo, Ricardo; Mendes, Manuel

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We present a simple framework to easily pre-select the most essential data for accurately forecasting the concentration of the pollutant PM$_{10}$, based on pollutants observations for the years 2002 until 2006 in the metropolitan region of Lisbon, Portugal. Starting from a broad panoply of different data sets collected at several meteorological stations, we apply a forward stepwise regression procedure that enables us not only to identify the most important variables for forecasting the pollutant but also to rank them in order of importance. We argue the importance of this variable ranking, showing that the ranking is very sensitive to the urban spot where measurements are taken. Having this pre-selection, we then present the potential of linear and non-linear neural network models when applied to the concentration of pollutant PM$_{10}$. Similarly to previous studies for other pollutants, our validation results show that non-linear models in average perform as well or worse as linear models for PM$_{10}$. F...

  1. Probabilistic wind power forecasting -European Wind Energy Conference -Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Probabilistic wind power forecasting - European Wind Energy Conference - Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting based on kernel density estimators J´er´emie Juban jeremie.juban@ensmp.fr; georges.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract Short-term wind power forecasting tools

  2. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    vs. AEO 2001 Price Forecast Natural Gas Price (nominal $/if forwards forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (ifs reference case forecast of natural gas prices delivered to

  3. A simulation method for calculating the absolute entropy and free energy of fluids: Application to

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meirovitch, Hagai

    A simulation method for calculating the absolute entropy and free energy of fluids: Application is a general approach for calculating the absolute entropy and free energy by analyzing Boltzmann samples and the TIP3P model of water, and very good results for the free energy are obtained, as compared with results

  4. Free volume hypothetical scanning molecular dynamics method for the absolute free energy of liquids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meirovitch, Hagai

    Free volume hypothetical scanning molecular dynamics method for the absolute free energy of liquids for calculating the absolute entropy, S, and free energy, F, by analyzing Boltzmann samples obtained by Monte energy evaluation is a central issue in atomistic modeling.1­5 When the free energy is known, equilibrium

  5. Bayesian modelling of an absolute chronology for Egypt's 18th Dynasty by astrophysical and radiocarbon methods

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Bayesian modelling of an absolute chronology for Egypt's 18th Dynasty by astrophysical Egyptology, the establishment of an absolute chronology for Ancient Egypt has been an ambition which has contained lists of the kings who reigned in Egypt. The Palermo Stone, the Abydos reliefs and the Turin Canon

  6. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17T23:59:59.000Z

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  7. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  8. Fact #624: May 24, 2010 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    4: May 24, 2010 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards, Model Years 2012-2016 Fact 624: May 24, 2010 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards, Model Years 2012-2016 The final...

  9. Fact #870: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    70: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress, 1978-2014 - Dataset Fact 870: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress, 1978-2014 - Dataset Excel file...

  10. Fact #849: December 1, 2014 Midsize Hybrid Cars Averaged 51%...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    For the 2014 model year, midsize hybrid cars averaged 43.4 miles per gallon (mpg) while midsize non-hybrid cars averaged 28.7 mpg; the difference between the two has narrowed due...

  11. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  12. Absolute spectral radiance responsivity calibration of sun photometers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu Qiuyun; Zheng Xiaobing; Zhang Wei; Wang Xianhua; Li Jianjun; Li Xin [Key Laboratory of Optical Calibration and Characterization, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031 (China); Li Zhengqiang [Laboratoire d'Optique Atmospherique, Universite Lille 1, Villeneuve d'Ascq 59655 (France) and State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101 (China)

    2010-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Sun photometers are designed to measure direct solar irradiance and diffused sky radiance for the purpose of atmospheric parameters characterization. A sun photometer is usually calibrated by using a lamp-illuminated integrating sphere source for its band-averaged radiance responsivity, which normally has an uncertainty of 3%-5% at present. Considering the calibration coefficients may also change with time, a regular high precision calibration is important to maintain data quality. In this paper, a tunable-laser-based facility for spectral radiance responsivity calibration has been developed at the Key Laboratory of Optical Calibration and Characterization, Chinese Academy of Sciences. A reference standard radiance radiometer, calibrated against cryogenic radiometer, is used to determine the radiance from a laser-illuminated integrating sphere source. Spectral radiance responsivity of CIMEL CE318-2 sun photometer is calibrated using this new calibration system with a combined standard uncertainty of about 0.8%. As a validation, the derived band-averaged radiance responsivity are compared to that from a Goddard Space Flight Center lamp-based sphere calibration and good agreements (difference <1.4%) are found from 675 to 1020 nm bands.

  13. Short-term planning and forecasting for petroleum. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elkins, R.D.

    1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Defense Fuel Supply Center (DFSC) has, in recent past, been unable to adequately forecast for short-term petroleum requirements. This has resulted in inaccurate replenishment quantities and required short-notice corrections, which interrupted planned resupply methods. The relationship between the annual CINCLANTFLT DFM budget and sales from the the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point (DFSP) is developed and the past sales data from the Norfolk DFSP is used to construct seasonality indices. Finally, the budget/sales relationship is combined with the seasonality indices to provide a new forecasting model. The model is then compared with the current one for FY-88 monthly forecasts. The comparison suggests that the new model can provide accurate, timely requirements data and improve resupply of the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point.

  14. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price.................................................................................................................................. 27 INTRODUCTION The Council prepares and periodically updates a 20-year forecast of wholesale to forecast wholesale power prices. AURORAxmp® provides the ability to inco

  15. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and validation.   Solar Energy.   73:5, 307? Perez, R. , forecast database.   Solar Energy.   81:6, 809?812.  forecasts in the US.   Solar Energy.   84:12, 2161?2172.  

  16. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean...

  17. Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Statton, James Cody

    2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

    . This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%....

  18. SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS Annette governing the insolation, forecasting of solar radiation makes the description of development of the cloud

  19. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  20. Solar Variability and Forecasting Jan Kleissl, Chi Chow, Matt Lave, Patrick Mathiesen,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Homes, Christopher C.

    Forecasting Benefits Use of state-of-art wind and solar forecasts reduces WECC operating costs by up to 14/MWh of wind and solar generation). WECC operating costs could be reduced by an additional $500 million

  1. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  2. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  3. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  4. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  5. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  6. Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater

  7. Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newton, Nathan J.

    2013-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

    This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how...

  8. Forecasting the demand for electric vehicles: accounting for attitudes and perceptions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bierlaire, Michel

    prediction, transportation, attitudes and perceptions, hybrid choice models, fractional factorial design: survey design, model estimation and forecasting. We develop a stated preferences (SP) survey with issues related to the application of models designed to forecast demand for new alternatives, most

  9. Price forecasting for U.S. cattle feeders: which technique to apply?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hicks, Geoff Cody

    1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    both feeder cattle costs and corn costs, and maximizing fed cattle prices. This research strives to evaluate the accuracy of six distinct price forecasting techniques over an eleven year period. The forecast techniques selected for this analysisare...

  10. Streamflow Forecasting Based on Statistical Applications and Measurements Made with Rain Gage and Weather Radar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hudlow, M.D.

    Techniques for streamflow forecasting are developed and tested for the Little Washita River in Oklahoma. The basic input for streamflow forecasts is rainfall. the rainfall amounts may be obtained from several sources; however, this study...

  11. Absolute frequency measurement of an SF6 two-photon line using a femtosecond optical comb and sum-frequency

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Absolute frequency measurement of an SF6 two-photon line using a femtosecond optical comb and sum laser. The absolute frequency of a CO2 laser stabilized onto an SF6 two-photon line has been measured

  12. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  13. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  14. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  15. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 15 SEPTEMBER 28, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  16. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 27 OCTOBER 10, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  17. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 16 AUGUST 29, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  18. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  19. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 12 OCTOBER 25, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three

  20. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 OCTOBER 11, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  1. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 13 SEPTEMBER 26, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  2. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 18 AUGUST 31, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  3. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 11 OCTOBER 24, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three

  4. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 2 AUGUST 15, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  5. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  6. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 17 AUGUST 30, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  7. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 4 AUGUST 17, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  8. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 29 OCTOBER 12, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  9. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 11 SEPTEMBER 24, 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the sixth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  10. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 12, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  11. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Birner, Thomas

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the third year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  12. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 28 SEPTEMBER 10, 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the sixth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  13. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 13 OCTOBER 26, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  14. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    -Gaussian case using the copula transform. On a wind power forecasting task, we show that this probabilisticLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random high-dimensional conditional Gaussian distributions to forecasting wind power and extend it to the non

  15. EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts by Caio A. S. van Oldenborgh, 2006: Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America. J. Climate and promote exchange of expertise and information between European and South American seasonal forecasters

  16. Hourly Temperature Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    ANNGSF) and for forecasting the one-hour-ahead heat load for a district heat load network (Seppälä et al and network analysis functions in power utilities. Since high-low temperature forecasts are usually provided-Rohani & Maratukulam, 1998). In other agricultural and environmental applications, even high-low temperature forecasts

  17. Development, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    can the forecasts completely cover the evolution of earthquake-generated tsunami waves: generationDevelopment, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models (forecast models) for use in NOAA's tsunami forecast

  18. Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation of specialized experts; application to Slovakian and French

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation of specialized experts; application-term forecast of electricity consumption based on ensemble methods. That is, we use several possibly independent´erieure and CNRS. hal-00484940,version1-19May2010 #12;Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation

  19. 2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA J models 1 INTRODUCTION Solar radiation and PV production forecasts are becoming increasingly important/) three teams of experts are benchmarking their solar radiation forecast against ground truth data

  20. Robust Pareto Optimum Routing of Ships Deterministic and Ensemble Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berlin,Technische Universität

    Robust Pareto ­ Optimum Routing of Ships utilizing Deterministic and Ensemble Weather Forecasts the SEAROUTES project, who provided me with exquisite weather forecasts, and who inspired me to apply ensemble ship operation. The more reliable weather forecasts and performance simulation of ships in a seaway

  1. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  2. Absolute vs. Intensity Limits for CO2 Emission Control: Performance Under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sue Wing, Ian.

    We elucidate the differences between absolute and intensity-based limits of CO2 emission when there is uncertainty about the future. We demonstrate that the two limits are identical under certainty, and rigorously establish ...

  3. E-Print Network 3.0 - absolute gamma ray Sample Search Results

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: absolute gamma ray Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 Characterizing the Memory Behavior of CompilerParallelized...

  4. Primary crossflow vortices, secondary absolute instabilities and their control in the rotating-disk boundary layer

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Primary crossflow vortices, secondary absolute instabilities and their control in the rotating patterns of crossflow vortices are derived by employing asymptotic techniques. This approach accounts three-dimensional velocity profiles, are subject to inviscid crossflow in- stabilities and rapidly

  5. Absolute Measure of Local Chirality and the Chiral Polarization Scale of the QCD Vacuum

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andrei Alexandru; Terrence Draper; Ivan Horváth; Thomas Streuer

    2010-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

    The use of the absolute measure of local chirality is championed since it has a uniform distribution for randomly reshuffled chiral components so that any deviations from uniformity in the associated "X-distribution" are directly attributable to QCD-induced dynamics. We observe a transition in the qualitative behavior of this absolute X-distribution of low-lying eigenmodes which, we propose, defines a chiral polarization scale of the QCD vacuum.

  6. average power femtosecond: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Stirling refrigerator1 that abrupt changes in geometry are ubiquitous in Stirling engines, thermoacoustics, and res- piratory flows Smith, Barton L. 52 On the Peak-to-Average...

  7. average power ratio: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Stirling refrigerator1 that abrupt changes in geometry are ubiquitous in Stirling engines, thermoacoustics, and res- piratory flows Smith, Barton L. 60 High average power,...

  8. average power semiconductor: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Stirling refrigerator1 that abrupt changes in geometry are ubiquitous in Stirling engines, thermoacoustics, and res- piratory flows Smith, Barton L. 56 High average power,...

  9. average resonance neutron: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Nader Haghighipour 1999-02-03 4 Average over energy effect of parity nonconservation in neutron scattering on heavy nuclei Nuclear Theory (arXiv) Summary: Using semiclassical...

  10. LOW-HIGH VALUES FOR PETROLEUM AVERAGE INVENTORY RANGES (MILLION...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION LOW-HIGH VALUES FOR PETROLEUM AVERAGE INVENTORY RANGES (MILLION BARRELS) FILE UPDATED April 2004 Line Month Low High Number Product Name Geography...

  11. average daily traffic: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 April 2014 Annual Average DailyTraffic (AADT) is a key input in operations and transportation planning Environmental Sciences and Ecology...

  12. average state iq: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    6 STATE OF CALIFORNIA AREA WEIGHTED AVERAGE CALCULATION WORKSHEET: RESIDENTIAL Energy Storage, Conversion and Utilization Websites Summary: STATE OF CALIFORNIA AREA...

  13. average high energy: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    averaged null (ANEC) energy conditions, and quantum inequality restrictions on negative energy for free massless scalar fields. In a two-dimensional compactified Minkowski...

  14. average kinetic energy: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy by kinetic averaging Pierre-Emmanuel Jabin Ecole Normale Sup-Landau energy for two dimensional divergence free fields ap- pearing in the gradient theory of...

  15. average beta energy: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    averaged null (ANEC) energy conditions, and quantum inequality restrictions on negative energy for free massless scalar fields. In a two-dimensional compactified Minkowski...

  16. average power high: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Simultaneous Power Fluctuation and Average Power Minimization during Nano-CMOS Behavioral Synthesis Computer Technologies and Information Sciences Websites Summary: conversion 6....

  17. Forecasting potential project risks through leading indicators to project outcome

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Ji Won

    2007-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

    , the Construction Industry Institute (CII) formed a research team to develop a new tool that can forecast the potential risk of not meeting specific project outcomes based on assessing leading indicators. Thus, the leading indicators were identified and then the new...

  18. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou--In current restructured wholesale power markets, the short length of time series for prices makes are fitted between D&O and wholesale power prices in order to obtain price scenarios for a specified time

  19. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  20. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Freitas, Nando

    economy. Commodity prices are key economical20 drivers in the market. Raw products such as oil, gold 15 1 Introduction16 17 1.1 Forecasting the commodities market18 The commodities market focuses of prices in both the short and long-term view25 point to help market participants gage a greater

  1. Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dalang, Robert C.

    Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract] Nicolas Gast EPFL, IC generation. The use of energy storage compensates to some extent these negative effects; it plays a buffer role between demand and production. We revisit a model of real storage proposed by Bejan et al.[1]. We

  2. 1994 battery shipment review and five-year forecast report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fetherolf, D. [East Penn Manufacturing Co., Lyon Station, PA (United States)

    1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a 1994 battery shipment review and five year forecast report. Data is presented on replacement battery shipments, battery shipments, car and truck production, truck sales, original equipment, shipments for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, and ten year battery service life trend.

  3. The Galactic Center Weather Forecast M. Moscibrodzka1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gammie, Charles F.

    The Galactic Center Weather Forecast M. Mo´scibrodzka1 , H. Shiokawa2 , C. F. Gammie2,3 , J*. The > 3M cloud will #12;­ 2 ­ interact strongly with gas near nominal pericenter at rp 300AU 8000GM/c2 transient phase while the flow circularizes-- accompanied by transient emission--it is natural to think

  4. GenForecast(26yr)(avg).PDF

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SLCAIP Historical & Forecast Generation at Plant Total Range of Hydrology 0 2,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 12,000,000,000 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 2 1...

  5. WIND POWER ENSEMBLE FORECASTING Henrik Aalborg Nielsen1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    WIND POWER ENSEMBLE FORECASTING Henrik Aalborg Nielsen1 , Henrik Madsen1 , Torben Skov Nielsen1. In this paper we address the problems of (i) transforming the mete- orological ensembles to wind power ensembles the uncertainty which follow from historical (climatological) data. However, quite often the actual wind power

  6. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  7. URBAN OZONE CONCENTRATION FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN CORSICA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Perceptron; Ozone concentration. 1. Introduction Tropospheric ozone is a major air pollution problem, both, Ajaccio, France, e-mail: balu@univ-corse.fr Abstract: Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air

  8. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. Phase I report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, R.M.; Hadder, G.R.; Singh, S.P.N.; Whittle, C.

    1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of the Navy (DON) requires an improved capability to forecast mobility fuel availability and quality. The changing patterns in fuel availability and quality are important in planning the Navy's Mobility Fuels R and D Program. These changes come about primarily because of the decline in the quality of crude oil entering world markets as well as the shifts in refinery capabilities domestically and worldwide. The DON requested ORNL's assistance in assembling and testing a methodology for forecasting mobility fuel trends. ORNL reviewed and analyzed domestic and world oil reserve estimates, production and price trends, and recent refinery trends. Three publicly available models developed by the Department of Energy were selected as the basis of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. The system was used to analyze the availability and quality of jet fuel (JP-5) that could be produced on the West Coast of the United States under an illustrative business-as-usual and a world oil disruption scenario in 1990. Various strategies were investigated for replacing the lost JP-5 production. This exercise, which was strictly a test case for the forecasting system, suggested that full recovery of lost fuel production could be achieved by relaxing the smoke point specifications or by increasing the refiners' gate price for the jet fuel. A more complete analysis of military mobility fuel trends is currently under way.

  9. Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

  10. Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

  11. Risk Forecasting with GARCH, Skewed t Distributions, and Multiple Timescales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Risk Forecasting with GARCH, Skewed t Distributions, and Multiple Timescales Alec N. Kercheval describe how the histori- cal data can first be GARCH filtered and then used to calibrate parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 3.2 Data and Stylized Facts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 3.3 GARCH Filter

  12. Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuhl, Michael E.

    Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks Matthew J. Daniels, NY 14623 Elisabeth Hager Hager Consulting Pittsford, NY 14534 Abstract The availability of beds is a critical factor for decision-making in hospitals. Bed availability (or alternatively the bed occupancy

  13. Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cerpa, Alberto E.

    Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

  14. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

  15. Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power and applications of power market simulation models around the world. Argonne's software tools are used extensively

  16. Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gratton, Claudio

    Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T), University of Lome, 114 Rue Agbalepedogan, BP: 20679, Lome, Togo e Center for Agricultural & Energy Policy model of potential biomass supply that incorporates the effect of biological control on crop choice

  17. Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peyraud, Lionel

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The importance of fog forecasting to the aviation community, to road transportation and to the public at large is irrefutable. The deadliest aviation accident in history was in fact partly a result of fog back on 27 March 1977. This has, along...

  18. Classification and forecasting of load curves Nolwen Huet

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cuesta, Juan Antonio

    Classification and forecasting of load curves Nolwen Huet Abstract The load curve, which gives of electricity customer uses. This load curve is only available for customers with automated meter reading. For the others, EDF must estimate this curve. Usually a clustering of the load curves is performed, followed

  19. What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamill, Tom

    1 What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from ensemble Kalman filters? Tom from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due to the model (e.g., stochas2c physics as error; part of spread growth from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due

  20. CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director-year increase in the debt ceiling -- both of which proceeded without the usual drama. Second, the private sector, corporate coffers are flush with cash, and low US energy prices have dramatically improved the global

  1. Exploiting weather forecasts for sizing photovoltaic energy bids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannitrapani, Antonello

    1 Exploiting weather forecasts for sizing photovoltaic energy bids Antonio Giannitrapani, Simone for a photovoltaic (PV) power producer taking part into a competitive electricity market characterized by financial set from an Italian PV plant. Index Terms--Energy market, bidding strategy, photovoltaic power

  2. Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prasanna, Viktor K.

    1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan, prasanna}@usc.edu I. INTRODUCTION Smart Power Grids exemplify an emerging class of Cyber Physical-on paradigm to support operational needs. Smart Grids are an outcome of instrumentation, such as Phasor

  3. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS AND ANALYSES FOR THE 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Page Manager FOSSIL FUELS OFFICE Mike Smith Deputy Director FUELS AND TRANSPORTATION DIVISION Melissa, Weights and Measurements/Gary Castro, Allan Morrison, John Mough, Ed Williams Clean Energy FuelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS AND ANALYSES FOR THE 2009 INTEGRATED

  4. Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannitrapani, Antonello

    bid is computed by exploiting the forecast energy price for the day ahead market, the historical wind renewable energy resources, such as wind and photovoltaic, has grown rapidly. It is well known the problem of optimizing energy bids for an independent Wind Power Producer (WPP) taking part

  5. Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ketter, Wolfgang

    Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges Wolfgang Ketter , John Collins. of Mgmt., Erasmus University Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Minnesota Dept,gini,schrater}@cs.umn.edu, agupta@csom.umn.edu Abstract We present basic building blocks of an agent that can use observable market

  6. Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ketter, Wolfgang

    Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges Wolfgang Ketter # , John Collins, Rotterdam Sch. of Mgmt., Erasmus University + Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, University wketter@rsm.nl, {jcollins,gini,schrater}@cs.umn.edu, agupta@csom.umn.edu Abstract We present basic

  7. air pollution forecast: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    air pollution forecast First Page Previous Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM...

  8. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  9. On average sampling restoration of Piranashvilitype harmonizable processes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    ; time shifted sam- pling; Piranashvili­, Lo`eve­, Karhunen­ harmonizable stochastic process; weakly.olenko@latrobe.edu.au, poganj@pfri.hr Abstract: The harmonizable Piranashvili ­ type stochastic pro- cesses are approximated stationary stochastic process; local averages; average sampling reconstruction. 1. Introduction

  10. averaged energy minimization: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    averaged energy minimization First Page Previous Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 Averaged Energy...

  11. THE AVERAGED CONTROL SYSTEM OF FAST OSCILLATING CONTROL SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    , control systems, small control, optimal control, Finsler geometry. AMS subject classifications. 34C29, 34H used for design. The use of averaging in optimal control of oscillating systems [10, 13, 14, 7THE AVERAGED CONTROL SYSTEM OF FAST OSCILLATING CONTROL SYSTEMS ALEX BOMBRUN AND JEAN

  12. Distributed Average Consensus in Sensor Networks with Random Link Failures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Moura, José

    Distributed Average Consensus in Sensor Networks with Random Link Failures Soummya Kar Department: soummyakgandrew.cmu.edu Abstract We study the impact of the topology of a sensor network on distributed average in terms of a moment of the distribution of the norm of a function of the network graph Laplacian matrix L

  13. The global warming signal is the average of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jones, Peter JS

    , uncertainty in the isopycnal diffusivity causes uncertainty of up to 50% in the global warming signalThe global warming signal is the average of years 70-80 in the increasing CO2 run minus the average represent significant uncertainty in the global warming signal (Fig. 5). The differences at high latitudes

  14. EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology -

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    the fluctuating output from wind farms into power plant dispatching and energy trading, wind power predictionsEWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology 1 The Anemos Wind Power a professional, flexible platform for operating wind power prediction models, laying the main focus on state

  15. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  16. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatist...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    permission. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatist... Yulia Gel; Adrian

  17. average glandular dose: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    doses and cancer rates to the workers m the first Soviet atom-bomb facility, near 2 Chelyabinsk and 4,600 at the plutonium sep- aration plant. If we allow for an average work...

  18. INDIVIDUAL REFORM ELEMENTS .63Average course exam score

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Colorado at Boulder, University of

    INDIVIDUAL REFORM ELEMENTS .63Average course exam score .11In class clicker score .02Lecture: · Correlations with effort/curricular elements are positive but not high, indicating no individual course reform

  19. areally averaged heat: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Chulwoo Jung; Christoph Lehner 2014-02-18 56 The Fallacy of Averages University of Kansas - KU ScholarWorks Summary: of component variables as well, we found that ignoring...

  20. STATE OF CALIFORNIA AREA WEIGHTED AVERAGE CALCULATION WORKSHEET: RESIDENTIAL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of a building feature, material, or construction assembly occur in a building, a weighted average there is more than one level of floor, wall, or ceiling insulation in a building, or more than one type

  1. Does anyone have access to 2012 average residential rates by...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Does anyone have access to 2012 average residential rates by utility company? I'm seeing an inconsistency between the OpenEI website and EIA 861 data set. Home > Groups > Utility...

  2. From average case complexity to improper learning [Extended Abstract

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Linial, Nathan "Nati"

    is that the standard reduc- tions from NP-hard problems do not seem to apply in this context. There is essentially only.1145/2591796.2591820. Keywords Hardness of improper learning, DNFs, Halfspaces, Average Case complexity, CSP problems, Resolution

  3. average neutronic properties: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    M. H. van Kerkwijk 2004-03-20 2 Average over energy effect of parity nonconservation in neutron scattering on heavy nuclei Nuclear Theory (arXiv) Summary: Using semiclassical...

  4. average power optical: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    systems, Multiple Subcarrier Strohmer, Thomas 3 June 1, 2000 Vol. 25, No. 11 OPTICS LETTERS 859 16.2-W average power from a diode-pumped Materials Science Websites...

  5. Fact #835: August 25, 2014 Average Annual Gasoline Pump Price...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    35: Average Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2013 fotw835web.xlsx More Documents & Publications Offshore Wind Market and Economic Analysis Report 2013 Response to several FOIA...

  6. THE UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND FRINGE BENEFIT AVERAGE RATE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rhode Island, University of

    THE UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND FRINGE BENEFIT AVERAGE RATE FY 2015 Allocation Cost or Classified.2% URI Budget & Financial Planning Office 9.17.14 Office:fringebenefits:office of sponsored projects: FY2015 Allocation #12;

  7. On the Choice of Average Solar Zenith Angle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cronin, Timothy W.

    Idealized climate modeling studies often choose to neglect spatiotemporal variations in solar radiation, but doing so comes with an important decision about how to average solar radiation in space and time. Since both ...

  8. average neck flexion: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    profiles including the singular isothermal sphere, the Navarro-Frenk-White... Retana-Montenegro, E; Baes, M 2012-01-01 13 Fast Averaging MIT - DSpace Summary: We are interested in...

  9. averaged cross sections: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 Relations between fusion cross sections and average angular momenta Nuclear Theory (arXiv) Summary: We study...

  10. averaged cross section: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 Relations between fusion cross sections and average angular momenta Nuclear Theory (arXiv) Summary: We study...

  11. average cross sections: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 Relations between fusion cross sections and average angular momenta Nuclear Theory (arXiv) Summary: We study...

  12. average effective dose: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    field theory, Chern-Simons theory is discussed in detail. M. Reuter 1996-02-04 2 Is dark energy an effect of averaging? CERN Preprints Summary: The present standard model of...

  13. Flavor Physics Data from the Heavy Flavor Averaging Group (HFAG)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    The Heavy Flavor Averaging Group (HFAG) was established at the May 2002 Flavor Physics and CP Violation Conference in Philadelphia, and continues the LEP Heavy Flavor Steering Group's tradition of providing regular updates to the world averages of heavy flavor quantities. Data are provided by six subgroups that each focus on a different set of heavy flavor measurements: B lifetimes and oscillation parameters, Semi-leptonic B decays, Rare B decays, Unitarity triangle parameters, B decays to charm final states, and Charm Physics.

  14. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  15. Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

    2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

  16. Partial Averaging Near a Resonance in Planetary Dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nader Haghighipour

    1999-02-03T23:59:59.000Z

    Following the general numerical analysis of Melita and Woolfson (1996), I showed in a recent paper that a restricted, planar, circular planetary system consisting of Sun, Jupiter and Saturn would be captured in a near (2:1) resonance when one would allow for frictional dissipation due to interplanetary medium (Haghighipour, 1998). In order to analytically explain this resonance phenomenon, the method of partial averaging near a resonance was utilized and the dynamics of the first-order partially averaged system at resonance was studied. Although in this manner, the finding that resonance lock occurs for all initial relative positions of Jupiter and Saturn was confirmed, the first-order partially averaged system at resonance did not provide a complete picture of the evolutionary dynamics of the system and the similarity between the dynamical behavior of the averaged system and the main planetary system held only for short time intervals. To overcome these limitations, the method of partial averaging near a resonance is extended to the second order of perturbation in this paper and a complete picture of dynamical behavior of the system at resonance is presented. I show in this study that the dynamics of the second-order partially averaged system at resonance resembles the dynamical evolution of the main system during the resonance lock in general, and I present analytical explanations for the evolution of the orbital elements of the main system while captured in resonance.

  17. Pressure Normalization of Production Rates Improves Forecasting Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lacayo Ortiz, Juan Manuel

    2013-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    reservoir conditions, psi 2/cp ?wf Pseudopressure at flowing conditions, psi 2/cp ? Characteristic time parameter for SEPD model, D ?g Gas viscosity, cp ?o Oil viscosity, cp Acronyms BDF Boundary-Dominated Flow DCA Decline Curve Analysis EUR..., as the advanced analytical and numerical models depend on copious inputs, there is a high probability that different combinations of those parameters could generate equivalent and acceptable history matches, but different production forecasts and EUR...

  18. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom [Vanderbilt University, Nashville; Quaranta, Vito [Vanderbilt University, Nashville; Evans, Katherine J [ORNL; Rericha, Erin [Vanderbilt University, Nashville

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  19. Average Soil Water Retention Curves Measured by Neutron Radiography

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheng, Chu-Lin [ORNL; Perfect, Edmund [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Kang, Misun [ORNL; Voisin, Sophie [ORNL; Bilheux, Hassina Z [ORNL; Horita, Juske [Texas Tech University (TTU); Hussey, Dan [NIST Center for Neutron Research (NCRN), Gaithersburg, MD

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Water retention curves are essential for understanding the hydrologic behavior of partially-saturated porous media and modeling flow transport processes within the vadose zone. In this paper we report direct measurements of the main drying and wetting branches of the average water retention function obtained using 2-dimensional neutron radiography. Flint sand columns were saturated with water and then drained under quasi-equilibrium conditions using a hanging water column setup. Digital images (2048 x 2048 pixels) of the transmitted flux of neutrons were acquired at each imposed matric potential (~10-15 matric potential values per experiment) at the NCNR BT-2 neutron imaging beam line. Volumetric water contents were calculated on a pixel by pixel basis using Beer-Lambert s law after taking into account beam hardening and geometric corrections. To remove scattering effects at high water contents the volumetric water contents were normalized (to give relative saturations) by dividing the drying and wetting sequences of images by the images obtained at saturation and satiation, respectively. The resulting pixel values were then averaged and combined with information on the imposed basal matric potentials to give average water retention curves. The average relative saturations obtained by neutron radiography showed an approximate one-to-one relationship with the average values measured volumetrically using the hanging water column setup. There were no significant differences (at p < 0.05) between the parameters of the van Genuchten equation fitted to the average neutron radiography data and those estimated from replicated hanging water column data. Our results indicate that neutron imaging is a very effective tool for quantifying the average water retention curve.

  20. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  1. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  2. Characterizing absolute piezoelectric microelectromechanical system displacement using an atomic force microscope

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Evans, J., E-mail: radiant@ferrodevices.com; Chapman, S., E-mail: radiant@ferrodevices.com [Radiant Technologies, Inc., 2835C Pan American Fwy NE, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87107 (United States)

    2014-08-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Piezoresponse Force Microscopy (PFM) is a popular tool for the study of ferroelectric and piezoelectric materials at the nanometer level. Progress in the development of piezoelectric MEMS fabrication is highlighting the need to characterize absolute displacement at the nanometer and Ångstrom scales, something Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) might do but PFM cannot. Absolute displacement is measured by executing a polarization measurement of the ferroelectric or piezoelectric capacitor in question while monitoring the absolute vertical position of the sample surface with a stationary AFM cantilever. Two issues dominate the execution and precision of such a measurement: (1) the small amplitude of the electrical signal from the AFM at the Ångstrom level and (2) calibration of the AFM. The authors have developed a calibration routine and test technique for mitigating the two issues, making it possible to use an atomic force microscope to measure both the movement of a capacitor surface as well as the motion of a micro-machine structure actuated by that capacitor. The theory, procedures, pitfalls, and results of using an AFM for absolute piezoelectric measurement are provided.

  3. HC-1 Ideal Gas and Absolute Zero Name_______________________ Lab Worksheet Group member names__________________________________

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Winokur, Michael

    that you always start with the same volume and pressure. 3) Compress the gas in the syringe as slowly as possible clicking at 5cm3 intervals and recording the volume. You can continue to slowly compress the gas reasoning. b) What do we call this process? #12;HC-1 Ideal Gas and Absolute Zero Name

  4. Increasing absolute mortality disparities by education in Finland, Norway and Sweden, 1971e2000

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Increasing absolute mortality disparities by education in Finland, Norway and Sweden, 1971e2000 differences by education in Finland, Norway and Sweden over the period 1971 to 2000. Methods The age and the AIDs have increased since the 1970s in Norway and Sweden, and since the 1980s in Finland

  5. Effects of confining pressure, pore pressure and temperature on absolute permeability. SUPRI TR-27

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gobran, B.D.; Ramey, H.J. Jr.; Brigham, W.E.

    1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study investigates absolute permeability of consolidated sandstone and unconsolidated sand cores to distilled water as a function of the confining pressure on the core, the pore pressure of the flowing fluid and the temperature of the system. Since permeability measurements are usually made in the laboratory under conditions very different from those in the reservoir, it is important to know the effect of various parameters on the measured value of permeability. All studies on the effect of confining pressure on absolute permeability have found that when the confining pressure is increased, the permeability is reduced. The studies on the effect of temperature have shown much less consistency. This work contradicts the past Stanford studies by finding no effect of temperature on the absolute permeability of unconsolidated sand or sandstones to distilled water. The probable causes of the past errors are discussed. It has been found that inaccurate measurement of temperature at ambient conditions and non-equilibrium of temperature in the core can lead to a fictitious permeability reduction with temperature increase. The results of this study on the effect of confining pressure and pore pressure support the theory that as confining pressure is increased or pore pressure decreased, the permeability is reduced. The effects of confining pressure and pore pressure changes on absolute permeability are given explicitly so that measurements made under one set of confining pressure/pore pressure conditions in the laboratory can be extrapolated to conditions more representative of the reservoir.

  6. Radiometric Modeling of Mechanical Draft Cooling Towers to Assist in the Extraction of their Absolute Temperature

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Salvaggio, Carl

    of Mechanical Draft Cooling Towers to Assist in the Extraction of their Absolute Temperature from Remote Thermal Abstract Determination of the internal temperature of a mechanical draft cooling tower (MDCT) from remotelyRadiometric Modeling of Mechanical Draft Cooling Towers to Assist in the Extraction

  7. Absolute cross section for Si2 P... electron-impact excitation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Savin, Daniel Wolf

    the excited ions was detected using an absolutely calibrated optical system. The fractional population such as qua- sars and active galactic nuclei. Modern space observatories such as the Hubble Space Telescope 3-ray line intensities with detectors calibrated to a high degree of accuracy 7,8,6 , placing more demand

  8. A rapid multiple-sample approach to the determination of absolute paleointensity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Utrecht, Universiteit

    an alternative approach to absolute paleointensity determination, one which involves exactly five heatings involves the simultaneous thermal treatment of several subspecimens sampled from different regions throughout the igneous rock unit under investigation. For inclusion of data in a given determination, self

  9. Subjective evaluation of HDTV stereoscopic videos in IPTV scenarios using absolute category rating

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Subjective evaluation of HDTV stereoscopic videos in IPTV scenarios using absolute category rating.Sjöströmc a Dept. of NetLab: IPTV, Video and Display Quality, Acreo AB, Sweden b Dept. of Image and Video at the same time it inevitably brings quality degradations to the processed video. This paper investigated

  10. Absolutely continuous spectrum implies ballistic transport for quantum particles in a random potential on tree graphs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aizenman, Michael [Departments of Physics and Mathematics, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544 (United States); Warzel, Simone [Zentrum Mathematik, TU Munich, Boltzmannstr. 3, 85747 Garching (Germany)

    2012-09-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We discuss the dynamical implications of the recent proof that for a quantum particle in a random potential on a regular tree graph absolutely continuous (ac) spectrum occurs non-perturbatively through rare fluctuation-enabled resonances. The main result is spelled in the title.

  11. The absolute and relative de Rham-Witt complexes Lars Hesselholt

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    -schemes to * *Z(p)-schemes. From this comparison, we derive a Gauss-Manin connection on the crystalline. There is a canonical surjective map Wn .X! Wn .X=S from the absolute de Rham of the canonical map f-1Wn* * 1S! Wn 1X. The graded pieces for the I-adic filtration are differential graded

  12. DIGITALVISION ltra-wideband (UWB) radios have relative bandwidths larger than 20% or absolute

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannakis, Georgios

    .S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) allowed the use of unlicensed UWB communications [8]. The first bandwidths of more than 500 MHz. Such wide bandwidths offer a wealth of advan- tages for both communications ranging accuracy. For communications, both large relative and large absolute band- width alleviate small

  13. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2 2. Annual Energy Outlook (Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook forecasted price (of Energy, Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to

  14. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Downward surface solar radiation  data released at 12 UTC forecast shortwave radiation with data obtained from the radiation:   A statistical approach using satellite data.   

  15. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  16. FAA (federal Aviation Administration) aviation forecasts - fiscal years 1983-1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains the Fiscal Years 1983-1994 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) forecasts of aviation activity at FAA facilities. These include airports with FAA control towers, air route traffic control centers, and flight service stations. Detailed forecasts were made for the four major users of the national aviation system: air carriers, air taxi/commuters, general aviation and the military. The forecasts have been prepared to meet the budget and planning needs of the constituent units of the FAA and to provide information that can be used by state and local authorities, by the aviation industry and the general public. The overall outlook for the forecast period is for moderate economic growth, relatively stable real fuel prices, and decreasing inflation. Based upon these assumptions, aviation activity is forecast to increase by Fiscal Year 1994 by 97 percent at towered airports, 50 percent at air route traffic control centers, and 54 percent in flight services performed. Hours flown by general aviation is forecast to increase 56 percent and helicopter hours flown 80 percent. Scheduled domestic revenue passenger miles (RPM's) are forecast to increase 81 percent, with scheduled international RPM's forecast to increase by 80 percent and commuter RPM's forecast to increase by 220 percent.

  17. The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    a unique sampling of articles, we examine academic and mediaSample Articles Prediction Source Academic and Trade Totalshow that articles reporting on academic forecasts have

  18. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    user needs for convective weather forecasts," in AmericanJ. Andrews M. Weber, "Weather Information Requirements forInt. Conf. on Aviation Weather, Paris, France. [5] NASDAC. (

  19. Continuous reservoir simulation model updating and forecasting using a markov chain monte carlo method

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Chang

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    forecasts of well and reservoir performance, accessible at any time. It can be used to optimize long-term reservoir performance at field scale....

  20. averaged lorentz dynamics: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    averaged lorentz dynamics First Page Previous Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 Dynamics on Lorentz manifolds...