National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for average absolute forecast

  1. Variable Average Absolute Percent Differences

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Variable Average Absolute Percent Differences Percent of Projections Over- Estimated Gross Domestic Product Real Gross Domestic Product (Average Cumulative Growth)* (Table 2) 0.9 45.8 Petroleum Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil (Constant $) (Table 3a) 37.7 17.3 Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil (Nominal $) (Table 3b) 36.6 18.7 Total Petroleum Consumption (Table 4) 7.9 70.7 Crude Oil Production (Table 5) 8.1 51.1 Petroleum Net Imports (Table 6) 24.7 73.8 Natural Gas

  2. "Variable","Average Absolute Percent Differences","Percent of...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review, 2014" "Variable","Average Absolute Percent Differences","Percent of Projections Over- Estimated" "Gross Domestic Product" "Real Gross ...

  3. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  4. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... day-ahead wind generation forecasts yields an average of 195M savings in annual operating costs. Figure 6 shows how operating cost savings vary with improvements in forecasting. ...

  5. Absolute nuclear material assay

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prasad, Manoj K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.

    2010-07-13

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  6. Absolute nuclear material assay

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prasad, Manoj K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.

    2012-05-15

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  7. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  8. The absolute path command

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-11

    The ap command traveres all symlinks in a given file, directory, or executable name to identify the final absolute path. It can print just the final path, each intermediate link along with the symlink chan, and the permissions and ownership of each directory component in the final path. It has functionality similar to "which", except that it shows the final path instead of the first path. It is also similar to "pwd", but it canmore » provide the absolute path to a relative directory from the current working directory.« less

  9. Measurement of the absolute \

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aunion, Jose Luis Alcaraz; /Barcelona, IFAE

    2010-07-01

    This thesis presents the measurement of the charged current quasi-elastic (CCQE) neutrino-nucleon cross section at neutrino energies around 1 GeV. This measurement has two main physical motivations. On one hand, the neutrino-nucleon interactions at few GeV is a region where existing old data are sparse and with low statistics. The current measurement populates low energy regions with higher statistics and precision than previous experiments. On the other hand, the CCQE interaction is the most useful interaction in neutrino oscillation experiments. The CCQE channel is used to measure the initial and final neutrino fluxes in order to determine the neutrino fraction that disappeared. The neutrino oscillation experiments work at low neutrino energies, so precise measurement of CCQE interactions are essential for flux measurements. The main goal of this thesis is to measure the CCQE absolute neutrino cross section from the SciBooNE data. The SciBar Booster Neutrino Experiment (SciBooNE) is a neutrino and anti-neutrino scattering off experiment. The neutrino energy spectrum works at energies around 1 GeV. SciBooNE was running from June 8th 2007 to August 18th 2008. In that period, the experiment collected a total of 2.65 x 10{sup 20} protons on target (POT). This thesis has used full data collection in neutrino mode 0.99 x 10{sup 20} POT. A CCQE selection cut has been performed, achieving around 70% pure CCQE sample. A fit method has been exclusively developed to determine the absolute CCQE cross section, presenting results in a neutrino energy range from 0.2 to 2 GeV. The results are compatible with the NEUT predictions. The SciBooNE measurement has been compared with both Carbon (MiniBoonE) and deuterium (ANL and BNL) target experiments, showing a good agreement in both cases.

  10. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 -0.9% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $424 3.9% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,992 2,082 4.5% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.37 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $371 $382 3.0% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,371 2,497 5.3% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  11. Neutron resonance averaging

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chrien, R.E.

    1986-10-01

    The principles of resonance averaging as applied to neutron capture reactions are described. Several illustrations of resonance averaging to problems of nuclear structure and the distribution of radiative strength in nuclei are provided. 30 refs., 12 figs.

  12. STEO January 2013 - average gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    drivers to see lower average gasoline prices in 2013 and 2014 U.S. retail gasoline prices are expected to decline over the next two years. The average pump price for regular unleaded gasoline was $3.63 a gallon during 2012. That is expected to fall to $3.44 this year and then drop to $3.34 in 2014, according to the new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Expected lower crude oil prices.....which accounted for about two-thirds of the price of gasoline in 2012....will

  13. Average Residential Price

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Data Series: Average Residential Price Residential Price - Local Distribution Companies Residential Price - Marketers Residential % Sold by Local Distribution Companies Average Commercial Price Commercial Price - Local Distribution Companies Commerical Price - Marketers Commercial % Sold by Local Distribution Companies Period: Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Show Data By: Data Series Area 2010 2011

  14. Absolute calibration of optical flats

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sommargren, Gary E.

    2005-04-05

    The invention uses the phase shifting diffraction interferometer (PSDI) to provide a true point-by-point measurement of absolute flatness over the surface of optical flats. Beams exiting the fiber optics in a PSDI have perfect spherical wavefronts. The measurement beam is reflected from the optical flat and passed through an auxiliary optic to then be combined with the reference beam on a CCD. The combined beams include phase errors due to both the optic under test and the auxiliary optic. Standard phase extraction algorithms are used to calculate this combined phase error. The optical flat is then removed from the system and the measurement fiber is moved to recombine the two beams. The newly combined beams include only the phase errors due to the auxiliary optic. When the second phase measurement is subtracted from the first phase measurement, the absolute phase error of the optical flat is obtained.

  15. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  16. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  17. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  18. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  19. Absolut Energy Capital | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Absolut Energy Capital Jump to: navigation, search Name: Absolut Energy Capital Place: London, England, United Kingdom Zip: W1H - 6HN Sector: Renewable Energy Product: London-based...

  20. Absolute Energy USA | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    USA Jump to: navigation, search Name: Absolute Energy (USA) Place: St. Ansgar, Iowa Zip: 50472 Product: Absolute Energy has built a 100 million gallon per year ethanol plant on the...

  1. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  2. Concentration Averaging | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Concentration Averaging Concentration Averaging Summary Notes from 3 October 2007 Generic Technical Issue Discussion on Concentration Averaging PDF icon Summary Notes from 3...

  3. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the integration cost of high levels of solar energy into the electricity grid. This will help SunShot to assess current technology and practices in this field and identify the gaps and needs for further research.

  4. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable.

  5. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  6. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  7. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  8. ARM - Field Campaign - Absolute Solar Transmittance Interferometer...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaignsAbsolute Solar Transmittance Interferometer (ASTI) ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at ...

  9. Absolute Energy Capital | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Capital Jump to: navigation, search Name: Absolute Energy Capital Place: London, United Kingdom Zip: SW1Y 5NQ Product: London-based private equity firm. Coordinates: 51.506325,...

  10. Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of Domain Composition...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of Domain Composition and Nanoscale Size Distribution Explains Performance in Solar Cells Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of...

  11. Spacetime averaged null energy condition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Urban, Douglas; Olum, Ken D.

    2010-06-15

    The averaged null energy condition has known violations for quantum fields in curved space, even when one considers only achronal geodesics. Many such examples involve rapid variation in the stress-energy tensor in the vicinity of the geodesic under consideration, giving rise to the possibility that averaging in additional dimensions would yield a principle universally obeyed by quantum fields. However, after discussing various procedures for additional averaging, including integrating over all dimensions of the manifold, we give here a class of examples that violate any such averaged condition.

  12. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  13. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  14. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  15. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  16. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  17. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below 3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly ...

  18. Electric-utility DSM programs: 1990 data and forecasts to 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hirst, E.

    1992-06-01

    In April 1992, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data on 1989 and 1990 electric-utility demand-site management (DMS) programs. These data represent a census of US utility DSM programs, with reports of utility expenditures, energy savings, and load reductions caused by these programs. In addition, EIA published utility estimates of the costs and effects of these programs from 1991 to 2000. These data provide the first comprehensive picture of what utilities are spending and accomplishing by utility, state, and region. This report presents, summarizes, and interprets the 1990 data and the utility forecasts of their DSM-program expenditures and impacts to the year 2000. Only utilities with annual sales greater than 120 GWh were required to report data on their DSM programs to EIA. Of the 1194 such utilities, 363 reported having a DSM program that year. These 363 electric utilities spent $1.2 billion on their DSM programs in 1990, up from $0.9 billion in 1989. Estimates of energy savings (17,100 GWh in 1990 and 14,800 GWh in 1989) and potential reductions in peak demand (24,400 MW in 1990 and about 19,400 MW in 1989) also showed substantial increases. Overall, utility DSM expenditures accounted for 0.7% of total US electric revenues, while the reductions in energy and demand accounted for 0.6% and 4.9% of their respective 1990 national totals. The investor-owned utilities accounted for 70 to 90% of the totals for DSM costs, energy savings, and demand reductions. The public utilities reported larger percentage reductions in peak demand and energy smaller percentage DSM expenditures. These averages hide tremendous variations across utilities. Utility forecasts of DSM expenditures and effects show substantial growth in both absolute and relative terms.

  19. High average power pockels cell

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Daly, Thomas P.

    1991-01-01

    A high average power pockels cell is disclosed which reduces the effect of thermally induced strains in high average power laser technology. The pockels cell includes an elongated, substantially rectangular crystalline structure formed from a KDP-type material to eliminate shear strains. The X- and Y-axes are oriented substantially perpendicular to the edges of the crystal cross-section and to the C-axis direction of propagation to eliminate shear strains.

  20. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  1. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  2. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Soft Costs Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar ...

  3. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... will share their expertise with CLASIC and CHAPS forecasters and project leaders as they consult on the forecast that will determine the day's operations plan. -- Storm Prediction ...

  4. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  5. Absolute and relative dosimetry for ELIMED

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cirrone, G. A. P.; Schillaci, F.; Scuderi, V.; Cuttone, G.; Candiano, G.; Musumarra, A.; Pisciotta, P.; Romano, F.; Carpinelli, M.; Presti, D. Lo; Raffaele, L.; Tramontana, A.; Cirio, R.; Sacchi, R.; Monaco, V.; Marchetto, F.; Giordanengo, S.

    2013-07-26

    The definition of detectors, methods and procedures for the absolute and relative dosimetry of laser-driven proton beams is a crucial step toward the clinical use of this new kind of beams. Hence, one of the ELIMED task, will be the definition of procedures aiming to obtain an absolute dose measure at the end of the transport beamline with an accuracy as close as possible to the one required for clinical applications (i.e. of the order of 5% or less). Relative dosimetry procedures must be established, as well: they are necessary in order to determine and verify the beam dose distributions and to monitor the beam fluence and the energetic spectra during irradiations. Radiochromic films, CR39, Faraday Cup, Secondary Emission Monitor (SEM) and transmission ionization chamber will be considered, designed and studied in order to perform a fully dosimetric characterization of the ELIMED proton beam.

  6. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  7. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-07-20.xlsx (72.85 KB) More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Assessment Report: OAS-V-15-01

  8. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  9. Gasoline price to average below $2 in 2016 for first time in 12 years

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price to average below $2 in 2016 for first time in 12 years The annual average price for U.S. regular-grade gasoline is expected to fall below $2 per gallon this year for the first time since 2004. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said drivers will pay on average $1.98 per gallon to fill up at the pump with regular-grade gasoline. EIA expects the monthly average price of gasoline to reach a seven-year low of $1.82 per gallon in February, before

  10. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  11. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  12. Absolute intensity calibration of the 32-channel heterodyne radiometer on experimental advanced superconducting tokamak

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, X.; Zhao, H. L.; Liu, Y. Li, E. Z.; Han, X.; Ti, A.; Hu, L. Q.; Zhang, X. D.; Domier, C. W.; Luhmann, N. C.

    2014-09-15

    This paper presents the results of the in situ absolute intensity calibration for the 32-channel heterodyne radiometer on the experimental advanced superconducting tokamak. The hot/cold load method is adopted, and the coherent averaging technique is employed to improve the signal to noise ratio. Measured spectra and electron temperature profiles are compared with those from an independent calibrated Michelson interferometer, and there is a relatively good agreement between the results from the two different systems.

  13. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  14. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  15. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Subcontracting / Subcontracting Forecasts / UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities

  16. Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan

    2014-09-12

    Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

  17. Ensemble bayesian model averaging using markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Diks, Cees G H; Clark, Martyn P

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In their seminal paper (Raftery etal. Mon Weather Rev 133: 1155-1174, 2(05)) has recommended the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for BMA model training, even though global convergence of this algorithm cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we compare the performance of the EM algorithm and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the BMA weights and variances. Simulation experiments using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and multi-model stream-flow forecasts show that both methods produce similar results, and that their performance is unaffected by the length of the training data set. However, MCMC simulation with DREAM is capable of efficiently handling a wide variety of BMA predictive distributions, and provides useful information about the uncertainty associated with the estimated BMA weights and variances.

  18. Average U.S. household to spend $710 less on gasoline during 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    drivers to see big savings at the gasoline pump this summer U.S. consumers are expected to pay the lowest average price for gasoline in six years during this summer's driving season, mostly because of lower crude oil costs. In its new forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the price for regular gasoline should average $2.45 per gallon this summer. That's down more than a dollar from the $3.59 per gallon seen last summer, and the cheapest average summer pump price since 2009.

  19. Average household expected to save $675 at the pump in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Average household expected to save $675 at the pump in 2015 Although retail gasoline prices have risen in recent weeks U.S. consumers are still expected to save about $675 per household in motor fuel costs this year. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says the average pump price for regular grade gasoline in 2015 will be $2.43 per gallon. That's about 93 cents lower than last year's average. The savings for consumers will be even bigger during the

  20. Absolute nuclear material assay using count distribution (LAMBDA) space

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prasad, Mano K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.

    2015-12-01

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  1. Absolute nuclear material assay using count distribution (LAMBDA) space

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prasad, Manoj K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.

    2012-06-05

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  2. A targeted proteomics toolkit for high-throughput absolute quantificat...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    targeted proteomics toolkit for high-throughput absolute quantification of Escherichia coli proteins Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A targeted proteomics toolkit for ...

  3. An absolute calibration method of an ethyl alcohol biosensor...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    biosensor based on wavelength-modulated differential photothermal radiometry Citation Details In-Document Search Title: An absolute calibration method of an ethyl alcohol biosensor ...

  4. Two-Sensor System for Absolute Age and Temperature History -...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    PDF Document Publication Market Sheet (718 KB) Technology Marketing Summary Numerous commercial and military applications require knowing the absolute age andor temperature ...

  5. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  6. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year Rising crude oil prices are likely to be passed on to consumers at the pump, but U.S. drivers are still expected to pay the lowest summer gasoline prices since 2004, and for all of 2016 the average household will spend $900 less on gasoline than it did two years ago." In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average

  7. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  8. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  9. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications » Market Studies » LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030. With declining costs and improving performance, LED products have been seeing increased adoption for general illumination applications. This is a positive development in terms of energy consumption, as LEDs use significantly

  10. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  11. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  12. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  13. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  14. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  15. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  16. Builds in U.S. natural gas storage running above five-year average

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Builds in U.S. natural gas storage running above five-year average The amount of natural gas put into underground storage since the beginning of the so-called "injection season" in April has been above the five-year average by a wide margin. In its new forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said natural gas inventories, which are running more than 50% above year ago levels, are on track to reach almost 4 trillion cubic feet by the end of October which marks the start of

  17. U.S. gasoline price expected to average less than $2 a gallon both this year and next

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    U.S. gasoline price expected to average less than $2 a gallon both this year and next U.S. drivers are now expected to see back-to-back years of annual average gasoline prices below $2 per gallon for the first time in more than a decade. In its latest monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said low oil prices will keep the average annual price for a gallon of regular-grade gasoline at $1.89 this year and at $1.97 in 2017. The last time gasoline averaged less than $2 for two

  18. Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of Domain Composition and

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Nanoscale Size Distribution Explains Performance in Solar Cells Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of Domain Composition and Nanoscale Size Distribution Explains Performance in Solar Cells Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of Domain Composition and Nanoscale Size Distribution Explains Performance in Solar Cells Print Tuesday, 22 January 2013 00:00 This front cover represents the morphology and resulting device dynamics in organic solar cell blend films of PTB7 and PC71BM, as

  19. Average and effective Q-values for fission product average (n...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: Average and effective Q-values for fission product average (n,2n) and (n,3n) reaction cross sections Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Average and ...

  20. Average and effective Q-values for fission product average (n...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Average and effective Q-values for fission product average (n,2n) and (n,3n) reaction cross sections Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Average and effective Q-values for ...

  1. ,"Selected National Average Natural Gas Prices"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Selected National Average Natural Gas Prices" ,"Click worksheet name or tab at bottom for data" ,"Worksheet Name","Description"," Of Series","Frequency","Latest Data for" ,"Data ...

  2. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  3. Dynamic Multiscale Averaging (DMA) of Turbulent Flow

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richard W. Johnson

    2012-09-01

    A new approach called dynamic multiscale averaging (DMA) for computing the effects of turbulent flow is described. The new method encompasses multiple applications of temporal and spatial averaging, that is, multiscale operations. Initially, a direct numerical simulation (DNS) is performed for a relatively short time; it is envisioned that this short time should be long enough to capture several fluctuating time periods of the smallest scales. The flow field variables are subject to running time averaging during the DNS. After the relatively short time, the time-averaged variables are volume averaged onto a coarser grid. Both time and volume averaging of the describing equations generate correlations in the averaged equations. These correlations are computed from the flow field and added as source terms to the computation on the next coarser mesh. They represent coupling between the two adjacent scales. Since they are computed directly from first principles, there is no modeling involved. However, there is approximation involved in the coupling correlations as the flow field has been computed for only a relatively short time. After the time and spatial averaging operations are applied at a given stage, new computations are performed on the next coarser mesh using a larger time step. The process continues until the coarsest scale needed is reached. New correlations are created for each averaging procedure. The number of averaging operations needed is expected to be problem dependent. The new DMA approach is applied to a relatively low Reynolds number flow in a square duct segment. Time-averaged stream-wise velocity and vorticity contours from the DMA approach appear to be very similar to a full DNS for a similar flow reported in the literature. Expected symmetry for the final results is produced for the DMA method. The results obtained indicate that DMA holds significant potential in being able to accurately compute turbulent flow without modeling for practical

  4. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  5. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  6. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  7. Average summer electric power bills expected to be lowest in...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Lower electricity use to meet cooling demand this summer because of forecasted milder temperatures compared with last summer is expected to more than offset higher electricity ...

  8. Measurements of the reactor neutron power in absolute units

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lebedev, G. V.

    2015-12-15

    The neutron power of the reactor of the Yenisei space nuclear power plant is measured in absolute units using the modernized method of correlation analysis during the ground-based tests of the Yenisei prototypes. Results of the experiments are given. The desired result is obtained in a series of experiments carried out at the stage of the plant preparation for tests. The acceptability of experimental data is confirmed by the results of measuring the reactor neutron power in absolute units at the nominal level by the thermal balance during the life cycle tests of the ground prototypes.

  9. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  10. Spacetime Average Density (SAD) cosmological measures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Page, Don N.

    2014-11-01

    The measure problem of cosmology is how to obtain normalized probabilities of observations from the quantum state of the universe. This is particularly a problem when eternal inflation leads to a universe of unbounded size so that there are apparently infinitely many realizations or occurrences of observations of each of many different kinds or types, making the ratios ambiguous. There is also the danger of domination by Boltzmann Brains. Here two new Spacetime Average Density (SAD) measures are proposed, Maximal Average Density (MAD) and Biased Average Density (BAD), for getting a finite number of observation occurrences by using properties of the Spacetime Average Density (SAD) of observation occurrences to restrict to finite regions of spacetimes that have a preferred beginning or bounce hypersurface. These measures avoid Boltzmann brain domination and appear to give results consistent with other observations that are problematic for other widely used measures, such as the observation of a positive cosmological constant.

  11. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  12. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  13. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  14. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  15. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  16. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  17. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  18. Analysis of standard reference materials by absolute INAA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heft, R.E.; Koszykowski, R.F.

    1981-07-01

    Three standard reference materials, flyash, soil, and ASI 4340 steel, were analyzed by a method of absolute instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). Two different light water pool-type reactors were used to produce equivalent analytical results even though the epithermal to thermal flux ratio in one reactor was higher than that in the other by a factor of two.

  19. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  20. Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu Beyond the familiar flu,

  1. Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulation of the heave performance of a two-body floating-point absorber wave energy system Yi-Hsiang Yu, Ye Li ⇑ National Wind Technology Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO 80401, USA a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 7 September 2011 Received in revised form 5 August 2012 Accepted 9 October 2012 Available online 17 October 2012 Keywords: Wave energy conversion Heave Computational Fluid Dynamics Reynolds-averaged

  2. Polarized electron beams at milliampere average current

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poelker, Matthew

    2013-11-01

    This contribution describes some of the challenges associated with developing a polarized electron source capable of uninterrupted days-long operation at milliAmpere average beam current with polarization greater than 80%. Challenges will be presented in the context of assessing the required level of extrapolation beyond the performance of today's CEBAF polarized source operating at ~ 200 uA average current. Estimates of performance at higher current will be based on hours-long demonstrations at 1 and 4 mA. Particular attention will be paid to beam-related lifetime-limiting mechanisms, and strategies to construct a photogun that operate reliably at bias voltage > 350kV.

  3. HIGH AVERAGE POWER OPTICAL FEL AMPLIFIERS.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BEN-ZVI, ILAN, DAYRAN, D.; LITVINENKO, V.

    2005-08-21

    Historically, the first demonstration of the optical FEL was in an amplifier configuration at Stanford University [l]. There were other notable instances of amplifying a seed laser, such as the LLNL PALADIN amplifier [2] and the BNL ATF High-Gain Harmonic Generation FEL [3]. However, for the most part FELs are operated as oscillators or self amplified spontaneous emission devices. Yet, in wavelength regimes where a conventional laser seed can be used, the FEL can be used as an amplifier. One promising application is for very high average power generation, for instance FEL's with average power of 100 kW or more. The high electron beam power, high brightness and high efficiency that can be achieved with photoinjectors and superconducting Energy Recovery Linacs (ERL) combine well with the high-gain FEL amplifier to produce unprecedented average power FELs. This combination has a number of advantages. In particular, we show that for a given FEL power, an FEL amplifier can introduce lower energy spread in the beam as compared to a traditional oscillator. This properly gives the ERL based FEL amplifier a great wall-plug to optical power efficiency advantage. The optics for an amplifier is simple and compact. In addition to the general features of the high average power FEL amplifier, we will look at a 100 kW class FEL amplifier is being designed to operate on the 0.5 ampere Energy Recovery Linac which is under construction at Brookhaven National Laboratory's Collider-Accelerator Department.

  4. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  5. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  6. Absolute charge calibration of scintillating screens for relativistic electron detection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buck, A.; Popp, A.; Schmid, K.; Karsch, S.; Krausz, F.; Zeil, K.; Jochmann, A.; Kraft, S. D.; Sauerbrey, R.; Cowan, T.; Schramm, U.; Hidding, B.; Kudyakov, T.; Sears, C. M. S.; Veisz, L.; Pawelke, J.

    2010-03-15

    We report on new charge calibrations and linearity tests with high-dynamic range for eight different scintillating screens typically used for the detection of relativistic electrons from laser-plasma based acceleration schemes. The absolute charge calibration was done with picosecond electron bunches at the ELBE linear accelerator in Dresden. The lower detection limit in our setup for the most sensitive scintillating screen (KODAK Biomax MS) was 10 fC/mm{sup 2}. The screens showed a linear photon-to-charge dependency over several orders of magnitude. An onset of saturation effects starting around 10-100 pC/mm{sup 2} was found for some of the screens. Additionally, a constant light source was employed as a luminosity reference to simplify the transfer of a one-time absolute calibration to different experimental setups.

  7. Absolute calibration for a broad range single shot electron spectrometer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Glinec, Y.; Faure, J.; Guemnie-Tafo, A.; Malka, V.; Monard, H.; Larbre, J. P.; De Waele, V.; Marignier, J. L.; Mostafavi, M.

    2006-10-15

    This article gives a detailed description of a single shot electron spectrometer which was used to characterize electron beams produced by laser-plasma interaction. Contrary to conventional electron sources, electron beams from laser-plasma accelerators can produce a broad range of energies. Therefore, diagnosing these electron spectra requires specific attention and experimental development. Here, we provide an absolute calibration of the Lanex Kodak Fine screen on a laser-triggered radio frequency picosecond electron accelerator. The efficiency of scintillating screens irradiated by electron beams has never been investigated so far. This absolute calibration is then compared to charge measurements from an integrating current transformer for quasimonoenergetic electron spectra from laser-plasma interaction.

  8. New applications for high average power beams

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Neau, E.L.; Turman, B.N.; Patterson, E.L.

    1993-08-01

    The technology base formed by the development of high peak power simulators, laser drivers, FEL`s, and ICF drivers from the early 60`s through the late 80`s is being extended to high average power short-pulse machines with the capabilities of supporting new types of manufacturing processes and performing new roles in environmental cleanup applications. This paper discusses a process for identifying and developing possible commercial applications, specifically those requiring very high average power levels of hundreds of kilowatts to perhaps megawatts. The authors discuss specific technology requirements and give examples of application development efforts. The application development work is directed at areas that can possibly benefit from the high specific energies attainable with short pulse machines.

  9. Table 1. Real Average Transportation and Delivered Costs of Coal...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Real Average Transportation and Delivered Costs of Coal, By Year and Primary Transport Mode" "Year","Average Transportation Cost of Coal (Dollars per Ton)","Average Delivered Cost...

  10. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and

  11. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  12. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  13. A Green's function quantum average atom model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Starrett, Charles Edward

    2015-05-21

    A quantum average atom model is reformulated using Green's functions. This allows integrals along the real energy axis to be deformed into the complex plane. The advantage being that sharp features such as resonances and bound states are broadened by a Lorentzian with a half-width chosen for numerical convenience. An implementation of this method therefore avoids numerically challenging resonance tracking and the search for weakly bound states, without changing the physical content or results of the model. A straightforward implementation results in up to a factor of 5 speed-up relative to an optimized orbital based code.

  14. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  15. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  16. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  17. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William

    2007-07-03

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  18. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William

    2007-10-02

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  19. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William

    2008-10-21

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  20. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William

    2009-09-01

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  1. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William

    2007-07-17

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  2. Lens transmission measurement for an absolute radiation thermometer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hao, X.; Yuan, Z.; Lu, X.

    2013-09-11

    The lens transmission for the National Institute of Metrology of China absolute radiation thermometer is measured by a hybrid method. The results of the lens transmission measurements are 99.002% and 86.792% for filter radiometers with center wavelengths 633 nm and 900 nm, respectively. These results, after correcting for diffraction factors and the size-of-source effect when the lens is incorporated within the radiometer, can be used for measurement of thermodynamic temperature. The expanded uncertainty of the lens transmission measurement system has been evaluated. It is 1.310{sup ?3} at 633 nm and 900 nm, respectively.

  3. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  4. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  5. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  6. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  7. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  8. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  9. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  10. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  12. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  13. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  14. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  15. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed windmore » speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.« less

  16. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed wind speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.

  17. Absolute properties of the triple star HP Aurigae

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lacy, Claud H. Sandberg; Burks, Charles L.; Torres, Guillermo; Wolf, Marek E-mail: clburks@email.uark.edu E-mail: wolf@cesnet.cz

    2014-01-01

    New photometric, spectroscopic, and eclipse timing observations of the eclipsing binary star HP Aur allow for very accurate orbital determinations, even in the presence of a third body and transient starspot activity. The eclipsing binary masses are determined to an accuracy of ±0.4% and the radii to ±0.6%. The masses are 0.9543 ± 0.0041 and 0.8094 ± 0.0036 solar masses, and the radii are 1.0278 ± 0.0042 and 0.7758 ± 0.0034 solar radii, respectively. The orbital period in the outer orbit is accurately determined for the first time: 4.332 ± 0.011 yr. A comparison with current theories of stellar evolution shows that the components' absolute properties can be well-matched by the current models at an age of about 7 billion years.

  18. Biochip Image Grid Normalization Absolute Signal Fluorescence Measurement Using

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2001-04-17

    This software was developed to measure absolute fluorescent intensities of gel pads on a microchip in units defined by a standard fluorescent slide. It can accomodate varying measurement conditions (e.g. exposure time, sensitivity of detector, resolution of detector, etc.) as well as fluorescent microscopes with non-uniform sensitivity across their field of view allowing the user to compare measurements done on different detectors with varying exposure times, sensitivities, and resolutions. The software is designed both tomore » operate Roper Scientific, Inc. cameras and to use image files produced by the program supplied with that equipment for its calculations. the intensity of the gel pad signal is computed so as to reduce background influence.« less

  19. THE ABSOLUTE CALIBRATION OF THE EUV IMAGING SPECTROMETER ON HINODE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Warren, Harry P.; Ugarte-Urra, Ignacio; Landi, Enrico

    2014-07-01

    We investigate the absolute calibration of the EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) on Hinode by comparing EIS full-disk mosaics with irradiance observations from the EUV Variability Experiment on the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We also use extended observations of the quiet corona above the limb combined with a simple differential emission measure model to establish new effective area curves that incorporate information from the most recent atomic physics calculations. We find that changes to the EIS instrument sensitivity are a complex function of both time and wavelength. We find that the sensitivity is decaying exponentially with time and that the decay constants vary with wavelength. The EIS short wavelength channel shows significantly longer decay times than the long wavelength channel.

  20. Method and apparatus for making absolute range measurements

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Earl, Dennis D.; Allison, Stephen W.; Cates, Michael R.; Sanders, Alvin J.

    2002-09-24

    This invention relates to a method and apparatus for making absolute distance or ranging measurements using Fresnel diffraction. The invention employs a source of electromagnetic radiation having a known wavelength or wavelength distribution, which sends a beam of electromagnetic radiation through a screen at least partially opaque at the wavelength. The screen has an aperture sized so as to produce a Fresnel diffraction pattern. A portion of the beam travels through the aperture to a detector spaced some distance from the screen. The detector detects the central intensity of the beam as well as a set of intensities displaced from a center of the aperture. The distance from the source to the target can then be calculated based upon the known wavelength, aperture radius, and beam intensity.

  1. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  2. Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer to Measure the Absolute Outdoor Longwave Irradiance with Traceability to International System of Units, SI

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reda, I.; Zeng, J.; Scheuch, J.; Hanssen, L.; Wilthan, B.; Myers, D.; Stoffel, T.

    2012-03-01

    This article describes a method of measuring the absolute outdoor longwave irradiance using an absolute cavity pyrgeometer (ACP), U.S. Patent application no. 13/049, 275. The ACP consists of domeless thermopile pyrgeometer, gold-plated concentrator, temperature controller, and data acquisition. The dome was removed from the pyrgeometer to remove errors associated with dome transmittance and the dome correction factor. To avoid thermal convection and wind effect errors resulting from using a domeless thermopile, the gold-plated concentrator was placed above the thermopile. The concentrator is a dual compound parabolic concentrator (CPC) with 180{sup o} view angle to measure the outdoor incoming longwave irradiance from the atmosphere. The incoming irradiance is reflected from the specular gold surface of the CPC and concentrated on the 11 mm diameter of the pyrgeometer's blackened thermopile. The CPC's interior surface design and the resulting cavitation result in a throughput value that was characterized by the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The ACP was installed horizontally outdoor on an aluminum plate connected to the temperature controller to control the pyrgeometer's case temperature. The responsivity of the pyrgeometer's thermopile detector was determined by lowering the case temperature and calculating the rate of change of the thermopile output voltage versus the changing net irradiance. The responsivity is then used to calculate the absolute atmospheric longwave irradiance with an uncertainty estimate (U{sub 95}) of {+-}3.96 W m{sup 02} with traceability to the International System of Units, SI. The measured irradiance was compared with the irradiance measured by two pyrgeometers calibrated by the World Radiation Center with traceability to the Interim World Infrared Standard Group, WISG. A total of 408 readings were collected over three different nights. The calculated irradiance measured by the ACP was 1.5 W/m{sup 2} lower than that

  3. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  4. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  5. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  6. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  7. ARM: AOS Wet Nephelometer 1 Minute Averages (Dataset) | Data...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: ARM: AOS Wet Nephelometer 1 Minute Averages AOS Wet Nephelometer 1 Minute Averages Authors: Scott Smith ; Cynthia Salwen ; Janek Uin ; Gunnar Senum ; Stephen Springston ; ...

  8. ARM: AOS Dry Nephelometer 1 Minute Averages (Dataset) | Data...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: ARM: AOS Dry Nephelometer 1 Minute Averages AOS Dry Nephelometer 1 Minute Averages Authors: Scott Smith ; Cynthia Salwen ; Janek Uin ; Gunnar Senum ; Stephen Springston ; ...

  9. High Average Brightness Photocathode Development for FEL Applications...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Conference: High Average Brightness Photocathode Development for FEL Applications Citation Details In-Document Search Title: High Average Brightness Photocathode Development for...

  10. ARM: Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 60-min averaging...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Citation Details In-Document Search Title: ARM: Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 60-min averaging interval Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 60-min averaging ...

  11. ARM: Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 10-min averaging...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 10-min averaging interval Title: ARM: Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 10-min averaging interval Temperature Profiles from Raman ...

  12. Annual average efficiency of a solar thermochemical reactor....

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Annual average efficiency of a solar thermochemical reactor. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Annual average efficiency of a solar thermochemical reactor. Abstract not ...

  13. THE ABSOLUTE MAGNITUDE OF RRc VARIABLES FROM STATISTICAL PARALLAX

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kollmeier, Juna A.; Burns, Christopher R.; Thompson, Ian B.; Preston, George W.; Crane, Jeffrey D.; Madore, Barry F.; Morrell, Nidia; Prieto, José L.; Shectman, Stephen; Simon, Joshua D.; Villanueva, Edward; Szczygieł, Dorota M.; Gould, Andrew; Sneden, Christopher; Dong, Subo

    2013-09-20

    We present the first definitive measurement of the absolute magnitude of RR Lyrae c-type variable stars (RRc) determined purely from statistical parallax. We use a sample of 242 RRc variables selected from the All Sky Automated Survey for which high-quality light curves, photometry, and proper motions are available. We obtain high-resolution echelle spectra for these objects to determine radial velocities and abundances as part of the Carnegie RR Lyrae Survey. We find that M{sub V,RRc} = 0.59 ± 0.10 at a mean metallicity of [Fe/H] = –1.59. This is to be compared with previous estimates for RRab stars (M{sub V,RRab} = 0.76 ± 0.12) and the only direct measurement of an RRc absolute magnitude (RZ Cephei, M{sub V,RRc} = 0.27 ± 0.17). We find the bulk velocity of the halo relative to the Sun to be (W{sub π}, W{sub θ}, W{sub z} ) = (12.0, –209.9, 3.0) km s{sup –1} in the radial, rotational, and vertical directions with dispersions (σ{sub W{sub π}},σ{sub W{sub θ}},σ{sub W{sub z}}) = (150.4, 106.1, 96.0) km s{sup -1}. For the disk, we find (W{sub π}, W{sub θ}, W{sub z} ) = (13.0, –42.0, –27.3) km s{sup –1} relative to the Sun with dispersions (σ{sub W{sub π}},σ{sub W{sub θ}},σ{sub W{sub z}}) = (67.7,59.2,54.9) km s{sup -1}. Finally, as a byproduct of our statistical framework, we are able to demonstrate that UCAC2 proper-motion errors are significantly overestimated as verified by UCAC4.

  14. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  15. Method and apparatus for making absolute range measurements

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Allison, Stephen W. (Knoxville, TN); Cates, Michael R. (Oak Ridge, TN); Key, William S. (Knoxville, TN); Sanders, Alvin J. (Knoxville, TN); Earl, Dennis D. (Knoxville, TN)

    1999-01-01

    This invention relates to a method and apparatus for making absolute distance or ranging measurements using Fresnel diffraction. The invention employs a source of electromagnetic radiation having a known wavelength or wavelength distribution, which sends a beam of electromagnetic radiation through an object which causes it to be split (hereinafter referred to as a "beamsplitter"), and then to a target. The beam is reflected from the target onto a screen containing an aperture spaced a known distance from the beamsplitter. The aperture is sized so as to produce a Fresnel diffraction pattern. A portion of the beam travels through the aperture to a detector, spaced a known distance from the screen. The detector detects the central intensity of the beam. The distance from the object which causes the beam to be split to the target can then be calculated based upon the known wavelength, aperture radius, beam intensity, and distance from the detector to the screen. Several apparatus embodiments are disclosed for practicing the method embodiments of the present invention.

  16. Method and apparatus for making absolute range measurements

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Allison, S.W.; Cates, M.R.; Key, W.S.; Sanders, A.J.; Earl, D.D.

    1999-06-22

    This invention relates to a method and apparatus for making absolute distance or ranging measurements using Fresnel diffraction. The invention employs a source of electromagnetic radiation having a known wavelength or wavelength distribution, which sends a beam of electromagnetic radiation through an object which causes it to be split (hereinafter referred to as a beam splitter''), and then to a target. The beam is reflected from the target onto a screen containing an aperture spaced a known distance from the beam splitter. The aperture is sized so as to produce a Fresnel diffraction pattern. A portion of the beam travels through the aperture to a detector, spaced a known distance from the screen. The detector detects the central intensity of the beam. The distance from the object which causes the beam to be split to the target can then be calculated based upon the known wavelength, aperture radius, beam intensity, and distance from the detector to the screen. Several apparatus embodiments are disclosed for practicing the method embodiments of the present invention. 9 figs.

  17. INTERPRETATION OF THE ARCADE 2 ABSOLUTE SKY BRIGHTNESS MEASUREMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seiffert, M.; Levin, S. M.; Fixsen, D. J.; Kogut, A.; Wollack, E.; Limon, M.; Lubin, P. M.; Mirel, P.; Singal, J.; Villela, T.; Wuensche, C. A.

    2011-06-10

    We use absolutely calibrated data between 3 and 90 GHz from the 2006 balloon flight of the ARCADE 2 instrument, along with previous measurements at other frequencies, to constrain models of extragalactic emission. Such emission is a combination of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) monopole, Galactic foreground emission, the integrated contribution of radio emission from external galaxies, any spectral distortions present in the CMB, and any other extragalactic source. After removal of estimates of foreground emission from our own Galaxy, and an estimated contribution of external galaxies, we present fits to a combination of the flat-spectrum CMB and potential spectral distortions in the CMB. We find 2{sigma} upper limits to CMB spectral distortions of {mu} < 6 x 10{sup -4} and |Y{sub ff}| < 1 x 10{sup -4}. We also find a significant detection of a residual signal beyond that, which can be explained by the CMB plus the integrated radio emission from galaxies estimated from existing surveys. This residual signal may be due to an underestimated galactic foreground contribution, an unaccounted for contribution of a background of radio sources, or some combination of both. The residual signal is consistent with emission in the form of a power law with amplitude 18.4 {+-} 2.1 K at 0.31 GHz and a spectral index of -2.57 {+-} 0.05.

  18. Precision absolute-value amplifier for a precision voltmeter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hearn, W.E.; Rondeau, D.J.

    1982-10-19

    Bipolar inputs are afforded by the plus inputs of first and second differential input amplifiers. A first gain determining resistor is connected between the minus inputs of the differential amplifiers. First and second diodes are connected between the respective minus inputs and the respective outputs of the differential amplifiers. First and second FETs have their gates connected to the outputs of the amplifiers, while their respective source and drain circuits are connected between the respective minus inputs and an output lead extending to a load resistor. The output current through the load resistor is proportional to the absolute value of the input voltage difference between the bipolar input terminals. A third differential amplifier has its plus input terminal connected to the load resistor. A second gain determining resistor is connected between the minus input of the third differential amplifier and a voltage source. A third FET has its gate connected to the output of the third amplifier. The source and drain circuit of the third transistor is connected between the minus input of the third amplifier and a voltage-frequency converter, constituting an output device. A polarity detector is also provided, comprising a pair of transistors having their inputs connected to the outputs of the first and second differential amplifiers. The outputs of the polarity detector are connected to gates which switch the output of the voltage-frequency converter between up and down counting outputs.

  19. Precision absolute value amplifier for a precision voltmeter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hearn, William E.; Rondeau, Donald J.

    1985-01-01

    Bipolar inputs are afforded by the plus inputs of first and second differential input amplifiers. A first gain determining resister is connected between the minus inputs of the differential amplifiers. First and second diodes are connected between the respective minus inputs and the respective outputs of the differential amplifiers. First and second FETs have their gates connected to the outputs of the amplifiers, while their respective source and drain circuits are connected between the respective minus inputs and an output lead extending to a load resister. The output current through the load resister is proportional to the absolute value of the input voltage difference between the bipolar input terminals. A third differential amplifier has its plus input terminal connected to the load resister. A second gain determining resister is connected between the minus input of the third differential amplifier and a voltage source. A third FET has its gate connected to the output of the third amplifier. The source and drain circuit of the third transistor is connected between the minus input of the third amplifier and a voltage-frequency converter, constituting an output device. A polarity detector is also provided, comprising a pair of transistors having their inputs connected to the outputs of the first and second differential amplifiers. The outputs of the polarity detector are connected to gates which switch the output of the voltage-frequency converter between up and down counting outputs.

  20. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  1. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  2. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  3. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and ...

  4. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  5. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  6. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...

  7. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  8. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  9. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  10. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... RIT forecasting is saving costs and improving operational practices for IPC and helping integrate wind power more efficiently and cost effectively. Figure 3 shows how the ...

  11. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Cost Assignment - Only a few respondents partly or fully recover forecasting costs from variable generators. Many simply absorb the costs, possibly viewing them as relatively ...

  12. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  13. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... The licensing arrangement helps to facilitate transfer of the statistical learning algorithms developed in the project to industry use. A leading forecast provider in the United ...

  14. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  15. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  16. Fact #849: December 1, 2014 Midsize Hybrid Cars Averaged 51%...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    9: December 1, 2014 Midsize Hybrid Cars Averaged 51% Better Fuel Economy than Midsize Non-Hybrid Cars in 2014 Fact 849: December 1, 2014 Midsize Hybrid Cars Averaged 51% Better ...

  17. Fact #835: August 25, 2014 Average Annual Gasoline Pump Price...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    35: Average Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2013 fotw835web.xlsx (21.31 KB) More Documents & Publications Fact 915: March 7, 2016 Average Historical Annual Gasoline Pump Price, ...

  18. Fact #889: September 7, 2015 Average Diesel Price Lower than...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    9: September 7, 2015 Average Diesel Price Lower than Gasoline for the First Time in Six Years Fact 889: September 7, 2015 Average Diesel Price Lower than Gasoline for the First ...

  19. Fact #870: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    0: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress, 1978-2014 - Dataset Fact 870: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress, 1978-2014 - Dataset Excel file and ...

  20. Fact #693: September 19, 2011 Average Vehicle Footprint for Cars...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    It is calculated as the product of the wheelbase and the average track width of the vehicle. The upcoming Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards have fuel economy targets ...

  1. Technical analysis in short-term uranium price forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schramm, D.S.

    1990-03-01

    As market participants anticipate the end of the current uranium price decline and its subsequent reversal, increased attention will be focused upon forecasting future price movements. Although uranium is economically similar to other mineral commodities, it is questionable whether methodologies used to forecast price movements of such commodities may be successfully applied to uranium.

  2. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  3. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  4. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  5. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  6. Machine Learning Based Multi-Physical-Model Blending for Enhancing Renewable Energy Forecast -- Improvement via Situation Dependent Error Correction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lu, Siyuan; Hwang, Youngdeok; Khabibrakhmanov, Ildar; Marianno, Fernando J.; Shao, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Hamann, Hendrik F.

    2015-07-15

    With increasing penetration of solar and wind energy to the total energy supply mix, the pressing need for accurate energy forecasting has become well-recognized. Here we report the development of a machine-learning based model blending approach for statistically combining multiple meteorological models for improving the accuracy of solar/wind power forecast. Importantly, we demonstrate that in addition to parameters to be predicted (such as solar irradiance and power), including additional atmospheric state parameters which collectively define weather situations as machine learning input provides further enhanced accuracy for the blended result. Functional analysis of variance shows that the error of individual model has substantial dependence on the weather situation. The machine-learning approach effectively reduces such situation dependent error thus produces more accurate results compared to conventional multi-model ensemble approaches based on simplistic equally or unequally weighted model averaging. Validation over an extended period of time results show over 30% improvement in solar irradiance/power forecast accuracy compared to forecasts based on the best individual model.

  7. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-09-22

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the 'Microbase' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  8. Average Depth of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Wells

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Active hurricane season expected to shut-in higher amount of oil and natural gas production An above-normal 2013 hurricane season is expected to cause a median production loss of about 19 million barrels of U.S. crude oil and 46 billion cubic feet of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That's about one-third more than the amount of oil and gas production knocked offline during last year's hurricane season.

  9. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

  10. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  11. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  12. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  13. "Table 2. Real Average Annual Coal Transportation Costs, By Primary...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Real Average Annual Coal Transportation Costs, By Primary Transport Mode and Supply Region" "(2013 dollars per ton)" "Coal Supply Region",2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "Railroad"...

  14. High Average Brightness Photocathode Development for FEL Applications...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: High Average Brightness Photocathode Development for FEL Applications Authors: Rao T. ; Ben-Zvi I. ; Skarita, J. ; Wang, E. Publication Date: 2013-08-26 OSTI Identifier: ...

  15. Turning Bayesian model averaging into Bayesian model combination...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Turning Bayesian model averaging into Bayesian model combination Authors: Carroll, James 1 ; Monteith, Kristine 2 ; Seppi, Kevin 2 ; Martinez, Tony 2 + Show Author ...

  16. Table 14a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Constant Dollars" " (constant dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour in ""dollar year"" specific to each AEO)" ...

  17. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  18. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to

  19. Fact #803: November 11, 2013 Average Number of Transmission Gears...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Average Number of Gears for New Light Vehicles, Model Years 1979-2012 Model Year Average Number of Gears 1979 3.3 1980 3.5 1981 3.5 1982 3.6 1983 3.7 1984 3.7 1985 3.8 1986 3.8 ...

  20. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  1. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  2. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  3. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  4. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  5. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler ... M Jensen et al., March 2016, DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting ...

  6. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  7. DOE Publishes New Forecast of Energy Savings from LED Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy has just published the latest edition of its biannual report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, which models the...

  8. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  9. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  10. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind ...

  11. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  12. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  13. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  14. New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering illustrates the full site installation, including a new aerosol observing system (far left) and a precipitation radar (far right, with 20-ft tower). The site is located near the Graciosa Island aiport terminal, hidden by the image inset. | Image courtesy of ARM Climate Research Facility. This artist's

  15. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  16. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  17. U.S. average gasoline prices falling to near $2 in December

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    In its new forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said high gasoline production, cheaper winter-grade gasoline, and lower gasoline demand following this summer's peak ...

  18. U.S. Refiner Sales to End Users (Average) Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Sales Type: Sales to End Users, Average Through Retail Outlets Sales for Resale, Average DTW Rack Bulk Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Show Data By: Formulation/ Grade Sales Type Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 View History Conventional, Average 1.346 1.209 1.450 1.617 1.790 1.894 1994-2016 Conventional Regular 1.305 1.167 1.412 1.576 1.749 1.854 1994-2016 Conventional Midgrade 1.524 1.376 1.601 1.781

  19. Fact #870: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1978-2014 - Dataset | Department of Energy 0: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress, 1978-2014 - Dataset Fact #870: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress, 1978-2014 - Dataset Excel file and dataset for Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress, 1978-2014 fotw#870_web.xlsx (17.92 KB) More Documents & Publications Reactor Pressure Vessel Task of Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Milestone Report on Materials and Machining of Specimens for the ATR-2

  20. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  1. Fact #915: March 7, 2016 Average Historical Annual Gasoline Pump...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Average Historical Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2015 fotw915web.xlsx (24.76 KB) More Documents & Publications Fact 888: August 31, 2015 Historical Gas Prices - Dataset Fact ...

  2. Does anyone have access to 2012 average residential rates by...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Does anyone have access to 2012 average residential rates by utility company? I'm seeing an inconsistency between the OpenEI website and EIA 861 data set. Home > Groups > Utility...

  3. Fact #624: May 24, 2010 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The final rule for the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards was published in ... The CAFE levels that must be met by the fleet of each manufacturer will be determined by ...

  4. Table 14b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Nominal Dollars" " (nominal dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,200...

  5. Table 14b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Nominal Dollars (nominal dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 ...

  6. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  7. Flavor Physics Data from the Heavy Flavor Averaging Group (HFAG)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    The Heavy Flavor Averaging Group (HFAG) was established at the May 2002 Flavor Physics and CP Violation Conference in Philadelphia, and continues the LEP Heavy Flavor Steering Group's tradition of providing regular updates to the world averages of heavy flavor quantities. Data are provided by six subgroups that each focus on a different set of heavy flavor measurements: B lifetimes and oscillation parameters, Semi-leptonic B decays, Rare B decays, Unitarity triangle parameters, B decays to charm final states, and Charm Physics.

  8. Averaged null energy condition violation in a conformally flat spacetime

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Urban, Douglas; Olum, Ken D.

    2010-01-15

    We show that the averaged null energy condition can be violated by a conformally coupled scalar field in a conformally flat spacetime in 3+1 dimensions. The violation is dependent on the quantum state and can be made as large as desired. It does not arise from the presence of anomalies, although anomalous violations are also possible. Since all geodesics in conformally flat spacetimes are achronal, the achronal averaged null energy condition is likewise violated.

  9. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  10. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  11. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  12. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the “Mergedsounding” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  13. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer at $3.94 a gallon

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer at $3.94 a gallon The retail price of diesel fuel is expected to average $3.94 a gallon during the summer driving season that which runs from April through September. That's close to last summer's pump price of $3.95, according to the latest monthly energy outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Demand for distillate fuel, which includes diesel fuel, is expected to be up less than 1 percent from last summer. Daily

  14. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  15. High average power scaleable thin-disk laser

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Beach, Raymond J.; Honea, Eric C.; Bibeau, Camille; Payne, Stephen A.; Powell, Howard; Krupke, William F.; Sutton, Steven B.

    2002-01-01

    Using a thin disk laser gain element with an undoped cap layer enables the scaling of lasers to extremely high average output power values. Ordinarily, the power scaling of such thin disk lasers is limited by the deleterious effects of amplified spontaneous emission. By using an undoped cap layer diffusion bonded to the thin disk, the onset of amplified spontaneous emission does not occur as readily as if no cap layer is used, and much larger transverse thin disks can be effectively used as laser gain elements. This invention can be used as a high average power laser for material processing applications as well as for weapon and air defense applications.

  16. U.S. average gasoline price up slightly

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    U.S. average gasoline price up slightly The U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline rose slightly to $3.65 a gallon on Monday. That's up a tenth of a penny from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Pump prices were highest in the West Coast region at 3.89 a gallon, down 4.4 cents from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast States at 3.34 a gallon, down 2.6 cents. Jonathan Cogan for EIA,

  17. Turning Bayesian model averaging into Bayesian model combination

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Conference) | SciTech Connect Turning Bayesian model averaging into Bayesian model combination Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Turning Bayesian model averaging into Bayesian model combination Authors: Carroll, James [1] ; Monteith, Kristine [2] ; Seppi, Kevin [2] ; Martinez, Tony [2] + Show Author Affiliations Los Alamos National Laboratory BYU Publication Date: 2011-07-28 OSTI Identifier: 1084524 Report Number(s): LA-UR-11-04419; LA-UR-11-4419 DOE Contract Number: AC52-06NA25396

  18. Dynamic frequency-domain interferometer for absolute distance measurements with high resolution

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weng, Jidong; Liu, Shenggang; Ma, Heli; Tao, Tianjiong; Wang, Xiang; Liu, Cangli; Tan, Hua

    2014-11-15

    A unique dynamic frequency-domain interferometer for absolute distance measurement has been developed recently. This paper presents the working principle of the new interferometric system, which uses a photonic crystal fiber to transmit the wide-spectrum light beams and a high-speed streak camera or frame camera to record the interference stripes. Preliminary measurements of harmonic vibrations of a speaker, driven by a radio, and the changes in the tip clearance of a rotating gear wheel show that this new type of interferometer has the ability to perform absolute distance measurements both with high time- and distance-resolution.

  19. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  20. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  1. Pennsylvania Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential and

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Commercial Consumers by Local Distribution and Ma 8.75 8.64 9.51 9.91 11.30 15.62 1989-2016 Commercial Average Price 7.19 7.44 8.21 8.12 8.74 10.69

  2. Speckle averaging system for laser raster-scan image projection

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Tiszauer, D.H.; Hackel, L.A.

    1998-03-17

    The viewers` perception of laser speckle in a laser-scanned image projection system is modified or eliminated by the addition of an optical deflection system that effectively presents a new speckle realization at each point on the viewing screen to each viewer for every scan across the field. The speckle averaging is accomplished without introduction of spurious imaging artifacts. 5 figs.

  3. Virginia Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential and

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Commercial Consumers by Local Distribution and Market 9.45 8.76 10.20 10.63 12.69 15.51 1989-2016 Commercial Average Price 6.88 6.67 7.18 6.65 7.24 7.22

  4. Speckle averaging system for laser raster-scan image projection

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Tiszauer, Detlev H.; Hackel, Lloyd A.

    1998-03-17

    The viewers' perception of laser speckle in a laser-scanned image projection system is modified or eliminated by the addition of an optical deflection system that effectively presents a new speckle realization at each point on the viewing screen to each viewer for every scan across the field. The speckle averaging is accomplished without introduction of spurious imaging artifacts.

  5. Maryland Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    8.35 18.44 19.08 19.39 13.51 12.72 1989-2015 Commercial Average Price 11.74 10.98 11.61 11.11 9.98 9.56...

  6. Michigan Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2.50 13.65 13.52 13.21 8.93 7.84 1989-2015 Commercial Average Price 8.91 9.31 9.17 9.05 7.46 6.75...

  7. Parity-violating anomalies and the stationarity of stochastic averages

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reuter, M.

    1988-01-15

    Within the framework of stochastic quantization the parity-violating anomalies in odd space-time dimensions are derived from the asymptotic stationarity of the stochastic average of a certain fermion bilinear. Contrary to earlier attempts, this method yields the correct anomalies for both massive and massless fermions.

  8. Florida Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential and

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Commercial Consumers by Local Distribution and Markete 6.78 16.00 17.06 17.83 20.52 22.40 1989-2016 Commercial Average Price 10.70 10.62 10.50 10.29 10.16 10.38

  9. Georgia Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential and

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Commercial Consumers by Local Distribution and Markete 0.79 10.94 13.01 16.48 20.53 24.74 1989-2016 Commercial Average Price 6.57 7.05 7.42 7.98 8.22 8.53

  10. Maryland Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Local Distribution Companies 12.20 2006-2010 Marketers 13.51 2006-2010 Percent Sold by Local Distribution Companies 81.7 2006-2010 Commercial Average Price 9.87 10.29 10.00 10.06 ...

  11. Florida Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Local Distribution Companies 17.85 2006-2010 Marketers 19.44 2006-2010 Percent Sold by Local Distribution Companies 97.9 2006-2010 Commercial Average Price 10.60 11.14 10.41 10.87 ...

  12. New Jersey Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Local Distribution Companies 12.77 2006-2010 Marketers 14.87 2006-2010 Percent Sold by Local Distribution Companies 96.6 2006-2010 Commercial Average Price 10.11 9.51 8.50 9.55 ...

  13. Michigan Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Commercial Average Price 8.95 9.14 8.35 7.82 8.28 7.49 1967-2015 Local Distribution Companies 10.00 2006-2010 Marketers 7.61 2006-2010 Percent Sold by Local Distribution Companies ...

  14. Virginia Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Local Distribution Companies 12.64 2006-2010 Marketers 13.64 2006-2010 Percent Sold by Local Distribution Companies 90.9 2006-2010 Commercial Average Price 9.55 9.69 8.77 8.83 9.17 ...

  15. Pennsylvania Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Local Distribution Companies 12.82 2006-2010 Marketers 13.78 2006-2010 Percent Sold by Local Distribution Companies 91.2 2006-2010 Commercial Average Price 10.47 10.42 10.24 10.11 ...

  16. District of Columbia Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Average Price 12.26 12.24 11.19 11.64 12.18 11.55 1980-2015 Local Distribution Companies 12.99 2006-2010 Marketers 12.12 2006-2010 Percent Sold by Local Distribution Companies 16.4 ...

  17. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  18. Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts May 11, 2016 - 6:48pm Addthis Balancing the power grid is an art-or at least a scientific study in chaos-and the Energy Department is hoping wind energy can take a greater role in the act. Yet, the intermittency of wind-sometimes it's blowing, sometimes it's not-makes adding it smoothly to the nation's electrical grid a challenge.

  19. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-02-01

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  20. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  1. Characterizing absolute piezoelectric microelectromechanical system displacement using an atomic force microscope

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Evans, J. Chapman, S.

    2014-08-14

    Piezoresponse Force Microscopy (PFM) is a popular tool for the study of ferroelectric and piezoelectric materials at the nanometer level. Progress in the development of piezoelectric MEMS fabrication is highlighting the need to characterize absolute displacement at the nanometer and Ångstrom scales, something Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) might do but PFM cannot. Absolute displacement is measured by executing a polarization measurement of the ferroelectric or piezoelectric capacitor in question while monitoring the absolute vertical position of the sample surface with a stationary AFM cantilever. Two issues dominate the execution and precision of such a measurement: (1) the small amplitude of the electrical signal from the AFM at the Ångstrom level and (2) calibration of the AFM. The authors have developed a calibration routine and test technique for mitigating the two issues, making it possible to use an atomic force microscope to measure both the movement of a capacitor surface as well as the motion of a micro-machine structure actuated by that capacitor. The theory, procedures, pitfalls, and results of using an AFM for absolute piezoelectric measurement are provided.

  2. Absolutely continuous spectrum implies ballistic transport for quantum particles in a random potential on tree graphs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aizenman, Michael; Warzel, Simone

    2012-09-15

    We discuss the dynamical implications of the recent proof that for a quantum particle in a random potential on a regular tree graph absolutely continuous (ac) spectrum occurs non-perturbatively through rare fluctuation-enabled resonances. The main result is spelled in the title.

  3. Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System ...

  4. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  5. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  6. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  7. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information ...

  8. UNBIASED MOMENT-RATE SPECTRA AND ABSOLUTE SITE EFFECTS IN THE KACHCHH BASIN, INDIA, FROM THE ANALYSIS OF THE AFTERSHOCKS OF THE 2001 Mw 7.6 BHUJ EARTHQUAKE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Malagnini, L; Bodin, P; Mayeda, K; Akinci, A

    2005-05-04

    What can be learned about absolute site effects on ground motions and about earthquake source spectra from recordings at temporary seismic stations, none of which could be considered a 'reference' (hard rock) site, for which no geotechnical information is available, in a very poorly instrumented region? This challenge motivated our current study of aftershocks of the 2001 Mw 7.6 Bhuj earthquake, in Western India. Crustal attenuation and spreading relationships based on the same data used here were determined in an earlier study. In this paper we decouple the ambiguity between absolute source radiation and site effects by first computing robust estimates of moment-rate spectra of about 200 aftershocks in each of two depth ranges. Using these new estimates of sourcespectra, and our understanding of regional wave propagation, we extract the absolute site terms of the sites of the temporary deployment. Absolute site terms (one for each component of the ground motion, for each station) are computed in an average sense, via an L{sub 1}-norm minimization, and results for each site are averaged over wide ranges of azimuths and takeoff angles. The Bhuj deployment is characterized by a variable shallow geology, mostly of soft sedimentary units. Vertical site terms in the region were observed to be almost featureless and slightly < 1.0 within wide frequency ranges. As a result, H/V spectral ratios mimic the absolute behaviors of absolute horizontal site terms, and they generally overpredict them. On the contrary, with respect to the results for sedimentary rock sites (limestone, dolomite) obtained by Malagnini et al. (2004), H/V spectral ratios in their study did not have much in common with absolute horizontal site terms. Spectral ratios between the vector sum of the computed horizontal site terms for the temporary deployment with respect to the same quantity computed at the hardest rock station available, BAC1, are seriously biased by its non-flat, non-unitary site response

  9. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods

  10. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  11. Modeling an Application's Theoretical Minimum and Average Transactional Response Times

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paiz, Mary Rose

    2015-04-01

    The theoretical minimum transactional response time of an application serves as a ba- sis for the expected response time. The lower threshold for the minimum response time represents the minimum amount of time that the application should take to complete a transaction. Knowing the lower threshold is beneficial in detecting anomalies that are re- sults of unsuccessful transactions. On the converse, when an application's response time falls above an upper threshold, there is likely an anomaly in the application that is causing unusual performance issues in the transaction. This report explains how the non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value distribution is used to estimate the lower threshold of an ap- plication's daily minimum transactional response time. It also explains how the seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average time series model is used to estimate the upper threshold for an application's average transactional response time.

  12. Averaging cross section data so we can fit it

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, D.

    2014-10-23

    The 56Fe cross section we are interested in have a lot of fluctuations. We would like to fit the average of the cross section with cross sections calculated within EMPIRE. EMPIRE is a Hauser-Feshbach theory based nuclear reaction code, requires cross sections to be smoothed using a Lorentzian profile. The plan is to fit EMPIRE to these cross sections in the fast region (say above 500 keV).

  13. Electric Sales, Revenue, and Average Price 2011 - Energy Information

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Administration Electricity Glossary › FAQS › Overview Data Electricity Data Browser (interactive query tool with charting & mapping) Summary Sales (consumption), revenue, prices & customers Generation and thermal output Capacity of electric power plants Consumption of fuels used to generate electricity Receipts of fossil-fuels for electricity generation Average cost of fossil-fuels for electricity generation Fossil-fuel stocks for electricity generation Cost, revenue and expense

  14. Average dynamics of a finite set of coupled phase oscillators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dima, Germn C. Mindlin, Gabriel B.

    2014-06-15

    We study the solutions of a dynamical system describing the average activity of an infinitely large set of driven coupled excitable units. We compared their topological organization with that reconstructed from the numerical integration of finite sets. In this way, we present a strategy to establish the pertinence of approximating the dynamics of finite sets of coupled nonlinear units by the dynamics of its infinitely large surrogate.

  15. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  16. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  17. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  18. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help

  19. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  20. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  1. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  2. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-09-19

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the “Microbase” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  3. Average U.S. household to spend $710 less on gasoline during...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    710 in gasoline costs this year compared with what was paid at the pump in 2014. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the national ...

  4. Average U.S. household to spend $710 less on gasoline during...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    In its new forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said natural gas-fired generation is expected to produce 30% of U.S. electricity this year. That's up from 27% ...

  5. Table 4. Average value of photovoltaic modules, 2004-2014

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Average value of photovoltaic modules, 2004-2014" "(dollars per peak watt)" "Year","Modules" 2004,2.99 2005,3.19 2006,3.5 2007,3.37 2008,3.49 2009,2.79 2010,1.96 2011,1.59 2012,1.15 2013,0.75 2014,0.87 "Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-63B, 'Annual Photovoltaic Cell/Module Shipments Report.' Note: Dollars are not adjusted for inflation.

  6. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  7. Communication: Probing the absolute configuration of chiral molecules at aqueous interfaces

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lotze, Stephan Versluis, Jan; Olijve, Luuk L. C.; Schijndel, Luuk van; Milroy, Lech G.; Voets, Ilja K.; Bakker, Huib J.

    2015-11-28

    We demonstrate that the enantiomers of chiral macromolecules at an aqueous interface can be distinguished with monolayer sensitivity using heterodyne-detected vibrational sum-frequency generation (VSFG). We perform VSFG spectroscopy with a polarization combination that selectively probes chiral molecular structures. By using frequencies far detuned from electronic resonances, we probe the chiral macromolecular structures with high surface specificity. The phase of the sum-frequency light generated by the chiral molecules is determined using heterodyne detection. With this approach, we can distinguish right-handed and left-handed helical peptides at a water-air interface. We thus show that heterodyne-detected VSFG is sensitive to the absolute configuration of complex, interfacial macromolecules and has the potential to determine the absolute configuration of enantiomers at interfaces.

  8. Particle visualization in high-power impulse magnetron sputtering. II. Absolute density dynamics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Britun, Nikolay Palmucci, Maria; Konstantinidis, Stephanos; Snyders, Rony

    2015-04-28

    Time-resolved characterization of an Ar-Ti high-power impulse magnetron sputtering discharge has been performed. The present, second, paper of the study is related to the discharge characterization in terms of the absolute density of species using resonant absorption spectroscopy. The results on the time-resolved density evolution of the neutral and singly-ionized Ti ground state atoms as well as the metastable Ti and Ar atoms during the discharge on- and off-time are presented. Among the others, the questions related to the inversion of population of the Ti energy sublevels, as well as to re-normalization of the two-dimensional density maps in terms of the absolute density of species, are stressed.

  9. Absolute total and partial dissociative cross sections of pyrimidine at electron and proton intermediate impact velocities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wolff, Wania Luna, Hugo; Sigaud, Lucas; Montenegro, Eduardo C.; Tavares, Andre C.

    2014-02-14

    Absolute total non-dissociative and partial dissociative cross sections of pyrimidine were measured for electron impact energies ranging from 70 to 400 eV and for proton impact energies from 125 up to 2500 keV. MOs ionization induced by coulomb interaction were studied by measuring both ionization and partial dissociative cross sections through time of flight mass spectrometry and by obtaining the branching ratios for fragment formation via a model calculation based on the Born approximation. The partial yields and the absolute cross sections measured as a function of the energy combined with the model calculation proved to be a useful tool to determine the vacancy population of the valence MOs from which several sets of fragment ions are produced. It was also a key point to distinguish the dissociation regimes induced by both particles. A comparison with previous experimental results is also presented.

  10. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edeling, W.N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R.P.

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  11. Absolute calibration of a charge-coupled device camera with twin beams

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meda, A.; Ruo-Berchera, I. Degiovanni, I. P.; Brida, G.; Rastello, M. L.; Genovese, M.

    2014-09-08

    We report on the absolute calibration of a Charge-Coupled Device (CCD) camera by exploiting quantum correlation. This method exploits a certain number of spatial pairwise quantum correlated modes produced by spontaneous parametric-down-conversion. We develop a measurement model accounting for all the uncertainty contributions, and we reach the relative uncertainty of 0.3% in low photon flux regime. This represents a significant step forward for the characterization of (scientific) CCDs used in mesoscopic light regime.

  12. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J. -J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Garcia-Pando, C. Perez; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; et al

    2016-04-21

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distributionmore » was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. In this paper, our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.« less

  13. Glassy carbon as an absolute intensity calibration standard for small-angle scattering.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, F.; Ilavsky, J.; Long, G.; Allen, A.; Quintana, J.; Jemian, P.; NIST

    2010-05-01

    Absolute calibration of small-angle scattering (SAS) intensity data (measured in terms of the differential scattering cross section per unit sample volume per unit solid angle) is essential for many important aspects of quantitative SAS analysis, such as obtaining the number density, volume fraction, and specific surface area of the scatterers. It also enables scattering data from different instruments (light, X-ray, or neutron scattering) to be combined, and it can even be useful to detect the existence of artifacts in the experimental data. Different primary or secondary calibration methods are available. In the latter case, absolute intensity calibration requires a stable artifact with the necessary scattering profile. Glassy carbon has sometimes been selected as this intensity calibration standard. Here we review the spatial homogeneity and temporal stability of one type of commercially available glassy carbon that is being used as an intensity calibration standard at a number of SAS facilities. We demonstrate that glassy carbon is sufficiently homogeneous and stable during routine use to be relied upon as a suitable standard for absolute intensity calibration of SAS data.

  14. Introducing an Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer (ACP) for Improving the Atmospheric Longwave Irradiance Measurement (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reda, I.; Stoffel, T.

    2012-03-01

    Advancing climate change research requires accurate and traceable measurement of the atmospheric longwave irradiance. Current measurement capabilities are limited to an estimated uncertainty of larger than +/- 4 W/m2 using the interim World Infrared Standard Group (WISG). WISG is traceable to the Systeme international d'unites (SI) through blackbody calibrations. An Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer (ACP) is being developed to measure absolute outdoor longwave irradiance with traceability to SI using the temperature scale (ITS-90) and the sky as the reference source, instead of a blackbody. The ACP was designed by NREL and optically characterized by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Under clear-sky and stable conditions, the responsivity of the ACP is determined by lowering the temperature of the cavity and calculating the rate of change of the thermopile output voltage versus the changing net irradiance. The absolute atmospheric longwave irradiance is then calculated with an uncertainty of +/- 3.96 W/m2 with traceability to SI. The measured irradiance by the ACP was compared with the irradiance measured by two pyrgeometers calibrated by the World Radiation Center with traceability to the WISG.

  15. Introducing an Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer for Improving the Atmospheric Longwave Irradiance Measurement (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reda, I.; Hansen, L.; Zeng, J.

    2012-08-01

    Advancing climate change research requires accurate and traceable measurement of the atmospheric longwave irradiance. Current measurement capabilities are limited to an estimated uncertainty of larger than +/- 4 W/m2 using the interim World Infrared Standard Group (WISG). WISG is traceable to the Systeme international d'unites (SI) through blackbody calibrations. An Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer (ACP) is being developed to measure absolute outdoor longwave irradiance with traceability to SI using the temperature scale (ITS-90) and the sky as the reference source, instead of a blackbody. The ACP was designed by NREL and optically characterized by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Under clear-sky and stable conditions, the responsivity of the ACP is determined by lowering the temperature of the cavity and calculating the rate of change of the thermopile output voltage versus the changing net irradiance. The absolute atmospheric longwave irradiance is then calculated with an uncertainty of +/- 3.96 W/m2 with traceability to SI. The measured irradiance by the ACP was compared with the irradiance measured by two pyrgeometers calibrated by the World Radiation Center with traceability to the WISG. A total of 408 readings was collected over three different clear nights. The calculated irradiance measured by the ACP was 1.5 W/m2 lower than that measured by the two pyrgeometers that are traceable to WISG. Further development and characterization of the ACP might contribute to the effort of improving the uncertainty and traceability of WISG to SI.

  16. Table 19. Average Price of U.S. Coal Imports

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    9. Average Price of U.S. Coal Imports (dollars per short ton) Year to Date Continent and Country of Origin January - March 2016 October - December 2015 January - March 2015 2016 2015 Percent Change North America Total 71.92 104.33 107.02 71.92 107.02 -32.8 Canada 71.93 104.32 107.01 71.93 107.01 -32.8 Mexico 66.79 360.25 113.43 66.79 113.43 -41.1 South America Total 64.73 64.18 70.82 64.73 70.82 -8.6 Colombia 64.73 63.86 70.58 64.73 70.58 -8.3 Peru 63.31 86.76 86.19 63.31 86.19 -26.5 Venezuela -

  17. Table 22. Average Price of U.S. Coke Imports

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2. Average Price of U.S. Coke Imports (dollars per short ton) Year to Date Continent and Country of Origin January - March 2016 October - December 2015 January - March 2015 2016 2015 Percent Change North America Total 181.85 113.11 213.82 181.85 213.82 -15.0 Canada 181.85 113.11 213.82 181.85 213.82 -15.0 Europe Total 270.94 416.80 770.50 270.94 770.50 -64.8 Austria - 1,788.00 - - - - France - 1,110.35 - - - - Germany, Federal Republic of - - 206.27 - 206.27 - Italy 265.37 300.11 - 265.37 - -

  18. Table 8. Average Price of U.S. Coal Exports

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    8. Average Price of U.S. Coal Exports (dollars per short ton) Year to Date Continent and Country of Destination January - March 2016 October - December 2015 January - March 2015 2016 2015 Percent Change North America Total 62.62 81.09 76.28 62.62 76.28 -17.9 Canada* 87.37 97.37 80.39 87.37 80.39 8.7 Dominican Republic 213.68 - 461.75 213.68 461.75 -53.7 Guatemala - 66.22 359.27 - 359.27 - Honduras 78.02 78.02 54.43 78.02 54.43 43.3 Jamaica 38.10 39.48 45.51 38.10 45.51 -16.3 Mexico 41.25 37.52

  19. U.S. Conventional, Average Refiner Gasoline Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    346 1.209 1.450 1.617 1.790 1.894 1994-2016 Through Retail Outlets 1.345 1.209 1.451 1.617 1.791 1.895 1994-2016 Sales for Resale, Average 1.117 0.998 1.276 1.416 1.573 1.597 1994-2016 DTW 1.337 1.143 1.369 1.498 1.641 1.696 1994-2016 Rack 1.109 0.995 1.283 1.421 1.583 1.602 1994-2016 Bulk 1.137 0.991 1.194 1.339 1.451 1.522

  20. U.S. Reformulated, Average Refiner Gasoline Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    790 1.553 1.736 1.921 2.011 2.078 1994-2016 Through Retail Outlets 1.792 1.554 1.737 1.921 2.012 2.079 1994-2016 Sales for Resale, Average 1.331 1.143 1.463 1.601 1.694 1.740 1994-2016 DTW 1.796 1.471 1.783 1.895 1.917 1.983 1994-2016 Rack 1.221 1.066 1.388 1.533 1.645 1.690 1994-2016 Bulk 1.307 1.074 1.377 1.514 1.602 1.619

  1. Average System Cost Methodology : Administrator's Record of Decision.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1984-06-01

    Significant features of average system cost (ASC) methodology adopted are: retention of the jurisdictional approach where retail rate orders of regulartory agencies provide primary data for computing the ASC for utilities participating in the residential exchange; inclusion of transmission costs; exclusion of construction work in progress; use of a utility's weighted cost of debt securities; exclusion of income taxes; simplification of separation procedures for subsidized generation and transmission accounts from other accounts; clarification of ASC methodology rules; more generous review timetable for individual filings; phase-in of reformed methodology; and each exchanging utility must file under the new methodology within 20 days of implementation by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission of the ten major participating utilities, the revised ASC will substantially only affect three. (PSB)

  2. Gauge and averaging in gravitational self-force

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gralla, Samuel E.

    2011-10-15

    A difficulty with previous treatments of the gravitational self-force is that an explicit formula for the force is available only in a particular gauge (Lorenz gauge), where the force in other gauges must be found through a transformation law once the Lorenz-gauge force is known. For a class of gauges satisfying a 'parity condition' ensuring that the Hamiltonian center of mass of the particle is well-defined, I show that the gravitational self-force is always given by the angle average of the bare gravitational force. To derive this result I replace the computational strategy of previous work with a new approach, wherein the form of the force is first fixed up to a gauge-invariant piece by simple manipulations, and then that piece is determined by working in a gauge designed specifically to simplify the computation. This offers significant computational savings over the Lorenz gauge, since the Hadamard expansion is avoided entirely and the metric perturbation takes a very simple form. I also show that the rest mass of the particle does not evolve due to first-order self-force effects. Finally, I consider the 'mode sum regularization' scheme for computing the self-force in black hole background spacetimes, and use the angle-average form of the force to show that the same mode-by-mode subtraction may be performed in all parity-regular gauges. It appears plausible that suitably modified versions of the Regge-Wheeler and radiation gauges (convenient to Schwarzschild and Kerr, respectively) are in this class.

  3. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  4. Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process

  5. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  6. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  7. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.

  8. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapiesmore » is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.« less

  9. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  10. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements.

  11. Table 14a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Constant Dollars (constant dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) AEO $ Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 1992 6.80 6.80 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.90 7.00 7.00 7.10 7.10 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.30 7.30 7.40 7.50 7.60 AEO 1995 1993 6.80 6.80 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.80 6.80 6.90 6.90 6.90 7.00 7.00 7.10 7.10 7.20

  12. High average power magnetic modulator for copper lasers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cook, E.G.; Ball, D.G.; Birx, D.L.; Branum, J.D.; Peluso, S.E.; Langford, M.D.; Speer, R.D.; Sullivan, J.R.; Woods, P.G.

    1991-06-14

    Magnetic compression circuits show the promise of long life for operation at high average powers and high repetition rates. When the Atomic Vapor Laser Isotope Separation (AVLIS) Program at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory needed new modulators to drive their higher power copper lasers in the Laser Demonstration Facility (LDF), existing technology using thyratron switched capacitor inversion circuits did not meet the goal for long lifetimes at the required power levels. We have demonstrated that magnetic compression circuits can achieve this goal. Improving thyratron lifetime is achieved by increasing the thyratron conduction time, thereby reducing the effect of cathode depletion. This paper describes a three stage magnetic modulator designed to provide a 60 kV pulse to a copper laser at a 4. 5 kHz repetition rate. This modulator operates at 34 kW input power and has exhibited MTBF of {approx}1000 hours when using thyratrons and even longer MTBFs with a series of stack of SCRs for the main switch. Within this paper, the electrical and mechanical designs for the magnetic compression circuits are discussed as are the important performance parameters of lifetime and jitter. Ancillary circuits such as the charge circuit and reset circuit are shown. 8 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  13. Long-term average performance benefits of parabolic trough improvements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gee, R.; Gaul, H.W.; Kearney, D.; Rabl, A.

    1980-03-01

    Improved parabolic trough concentrating collectors will result from better design, improved fabrication techniques, and the development and utilization of improved materials. The difficulty of achieving these improvements varies as does their potential for increasing parabolic trough performance. The purpose of this analysis is to quantify the relative merit of various technology advancements in improving the long-term average performance of parabolic trough concentrating collectors. The performance benefits of improvements are determined as a function of operating temperature for north-south, east-west, and polar mounted parabolic troughs. The results are presented graphically to allow a quick determination of the performance merits of particular improvements. Substantial annual energy gains are shown to be attainable. Of the improvements evaluated, the development of stable back-silvered glass reflective surfaces offers the largest performance gain for operating temperatures below 150/sup 0/C. Above 150/sup 0/C, the development of trough receivers that can maintain a vacuum is the most significant potential improvement. The reduction of concentrator slope errors also has a substantial performance benefit at high operating temperatures.

  14. Fact #615: March 22, 2010 Average Vehicle Trip Length | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy 5: March 22, 2010 Average Vehicle Trip Length Fact #615: March 22, 2010 Average Vehicle Trip Length According to the latest National Household Travel Survey, the average trip length grew to over 10 miles in 2009, just slightly over the 9.9 mile average in 2001. Trips to work in 2009 increased to an average of 12.6 miles. The average trip length has been growing each survey year since the lowest average in 1983. Average Vehicle Trip Length, 1969-2009 Graph showing the average vehicle

  15. Image plate characterization and absolute calibration to low kilo-electron-volt electrons

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Busold, S.; Philipp, K.; Otten, A.; Roth, M.

    2014-11-15

    We report on the characterization of an image plate and its absolute calibration to electrons in the low keV energy range (130 keV). In our case, an Agfa MD4.0 without protection layer was used in combination with a Fuji FLA7000 scanner. The calibration data are compared to other published data and a consistent picture of the sensitivity of image plates to electrons is obtained, which suggests a validity of the obtained calibration up to 100 keV.

  16. The concepts of leak before break and absolute reliability of NPP equipment and piping

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Getman, A.F.; Komarov, O.V.; Sokov, L.M.

    1997-04-01

    This paper describes the absolute reliability (AR) concept for ensuring safe operation of nuclear plant equipment and piping. The AR of a pipeline or component is defined as the level of reliability when the probability of an instantaneous double-ended break is near zero. AR analysis has been applied to Russian RBMK and VVER type reactors. It is proposed that analyses required for application of the leak before break concept should be included in AR implementation. The basic principles, methods, and approaches that provide the basis for implementing the AR concept are described.

  17. Absolute timing measurements of the Ni-like Pd and Sn soft-x-ray lasers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Staub, F.; Braud, M.; Balmer, J.E.; Nilsen, J.

    2005-10-15

    The absolute time of emission of the x-ray laser output with respect to the arrival of a 100-ps pump pulse has been measured with the aid of a calibrated timing fiducial. The results show the x-ray laser to appear up to 60 ps (80 ps) before the peak of the pump pulse in the case of the Sn (Pd) x-ray laser, which is in good agreement with simulations obtained from the LASNEX and CRETIN codes. The pulse duration was found to be {approx}45 ps for both the Sn and the Pd x-ray lasers.

  18. Absolute wavelength calibration of a Doppler spectrometer with a custom Fabry-Perot optical system

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Absolute wavelength calibration of a Doppler spectrometer with a custom Fabry- Perot optical system M. M. Baltzer, D. Craig, D. J. Den Hartog, T. Nishizawa, and M. D. Nornberg Citation: Review of Scientific Instruments 87, 11E509 (2016); doi: 10.1063/1.4955491 View online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4955491 View Table of Contents: http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/journal/rsi/87/11?ver=pdfcov Published by the AIP Publishing Articles you may be interested in Development of a tunable

  19. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  20. Using star tracks to determine the absolute pointing of the Fluorescence Detector telescopes of the Pierre Auger Observatory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Donato, Cinzia; Sanchez, Federico; Santander, Marcos; Natl.Tech.U., San Rafael; Camin, Daniel; Garcia, Beatriz; Grassi, Valerio; /Milan U. /INFN, Milan

    2005-05-01

    To accurately reconstruct a shower axis from the Fluorescence Detector data it is essential to establish with high precision the absolute pointing of the telescopes. To d that they calculate the absolute pointing of a telescope using sky background data acquired during regular data taking periods. The method is based on the knowledge of bright star's coordinates that provide a reliable and stable coordinate system. it can be used to check the absolute telescope's pointing and its long-term stability during the whole life of the project, estimated in 20 years. They have analyzed background data taken from January to October 2004 to determine the absolute pointing of the 12 telescopes installed both in Los Leones and Coihueco. The method is based on the determination of the mean-time of the variance signal left by a star traversing a PMT's photocathode which is compared with the mean-time obtained by simulating the track of that star on the same pixel.

  1. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  2. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  3. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  4. Absolute measurement of the 242Pu neutron-capture cross section

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Buckner, M. Q.; Wu, C. Y.; Henderson, R. A.; Bucher, B.; Chyzh, A.; Bredeweg, T. A.; Baramsai, B.; Couture, A.; Jandel, M.; Mosby, S.; et al

    2016-04-21

    Here, the absolute neutron-capture cross section of 242Pu was measured at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center using the Detector for Advanced Neutron-Capture Experiments array along with a compact parallel-plate avalanche counter for fission-fragment detection. The first direct measurement of the 242Pu(n,γ) cross section was made over the incident neutron energy range from thermal to ≈ 6 keV, and the absolute scale of the (n,γ) cross section was set according to the known 239Pu(n,f) resonance at En,R = 7.83 eV. This was accomplished by adding a small quantity of 239Pu to the 242Pu sample. The relative scale of the crossmore » section, with a range of four orders of magnitude, was determined for incident neutron energies from thermal to ≈ 40 keV. Our data, in general, are in agreement with previous measurements and those reported in ENDF/B-VII.1; the 242Pu(n,γ) cross section at the En,R = 2.68 eV resonance is within 2.4% of the evaluated value. However, discrepancies exist at higher energies; our data are ≈30% lower than the evaluated data at En ≈ 1 keV and are approximately 2σ away from the previous measurement at En ≈ 20 keV.« less

  5. Constraining absolute neutrino masses via detection of galactic supernova neutrinos at JUNO

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lu, Jia-Shu; Cao, Jun; Li, Yu-Feng; Zhou, Shun

    2015-05-26

    A high-statistics measurement of the neutrinos from a galactic core-collapse supernova is extremely important for understanding the explosion mechanism, and studying the intrinsic properties of neutrinos themselves. In this paper, we explore the possibility to constrain the absolute scale of neutrino masses m{sub ν} via the detection of galactic supernova neutrinos at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) with a 20 kiloton liquid-scintillator detector. In assumption of a nearly-degenerate neutrino mass spectrum and a normal mass ordering, the upper bound on the absolute neutrino mass is found to be m{sub ν}<(0.83±0.24) eV at the 95% confidence level for a typical galactic supernova at a distance of 10 kpc, where the mean value and standard deviation are shown to account for statistical fluctuations. For comparison, we find that the bound in the Super-Kamiokande experiment is m{sub ν}<(0.94±0.28) eV at the same confidence level. However, the upper bound will be relaxed when the model parameters characterizing the time structure of supernova neutrino fluxes are not exactly known, and when the neutrino mass ordering is inverted.

  6. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  7. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconne...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular ...

  8. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  9. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting behind-the-meter distributed PV generation power production within a region ... This project is expected to reduce the costs of integrating higher penetrations of PV into ...

  10. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    turbines operate closer to maximum capacity, leading to lower energy costs for consumers. ... for the Weather Research and Forecasting model, a widely used weather prediction system. ...

  11. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  12. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    electric system operators, and solar project owners better predict when and how much ... production varies, an accurate solar forecast is needed in order to maintain an ...

  13. Fact #744: September 10, 2012 Average New Light Vehicle Price Grows Faster

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    than Average Used Light Vehicle Price | Department of Energy 4: September 10, 2012 Average New Light Vehicle Price Grows Faster than Average Used Light Vehicle Price Fact #744: September 10, 2012 Average New Light Vehicle Price Grows Faster than Average Used Light Vehicle Price In 2011 the average used light vehicle price was 36% higher than in 1990, while the average new light vehicle price was 67% higher than it was in 1990. The average price of a used vehicle had been between $6,000 and

  14. The magnetic recoil spectrometer for measurements of the absolute neutron spectrum at OMEGA and the NIF

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Casey, D. T.; Frenje, J. A.; Gatu Johnson, M.; Seguin, F. H.; Li, C. K.; Petrasso, R. D.; Glebov, V. Yu.; Katz, J.; Magoon, J.; Meyerhofer, D. D.; Sangster, T. C.; Shoup, M.; Ulreich, J.; Ashabranner, R. C.; Bionta, R. M.; Carpenter, A. C.; Felker, B.; Khater, H. Y.; LePape, S.; MacKinnon, A.; McKernan, M. A.; Moran, M.; Rygg, J. R.; Yeoman, M. F.; Zacharias, R.; Leeper, R. J.; Fletcher, K.; Farrell, M.; Jasion, D.; Kilkenny, J.; Paguio, R.

    2013-04-18

    The neutron spectrum produced by deuterium-tritium (DT) inertial confinement fusion implosions contains a wealth of information about implosion performance including the DT yield, iontemperature, and areal-density. The Magnetic Recoil Spectrometer (MRS) has been used at both the OMEGA laser facility and the National Ignition Facility (NIF) to measure the absolute neutron spectrum from 3 to 30 MeV at OMEGA and 3 to 36 MeV at the NIF. These measurements have been used to diagnose the performance of cryogenic target implosions to unprecedented accuracy. Interpretation of MRS data requires a detailed understanding of the MRS response and background. This paper describes ab initio characterization of the system involving Monte Carlo simulations of the MRS response in addition to the commission experiments for in situ calibration of the systems on OMEGA and the NIF.

  15. Absolute differential cross sections for elastic scattering of electrons from pyrimidine

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maljkovic, J. B.; Milosavljevic, A. R.; Sevic, D.; Marinkovic, B. P.; Blanco, F.

    2009-05-15

    Differential cross sections (DCSs) for elastic scattering of electrons from pyrimidine (C{sub 4}H{sub 4}N{sub 2}) are presented for incident energies from 50 to 300 eV. The measurements were performed using a cross beam technique, for scattering angles from 20 deg. to 110 deg. The relative DCSs were measured as a function of both the angle and incident energy and the absolute DCSs were determined using the relative flow method. The calculations of electron interaction cross sections are based on a corrected form of the independent-atom method, known as the screen corrected additivity rule procedure and using an improved quasifree absorption model. Calculated results agree very well with the experiment.

  16. The magnetic recoil spectrometer for measurements of the absolute neutron spectrum at OMEGA and the NIF

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Casey, D. T.; Frenje, J. A.; Gatu Johnson, M.; Seguin, F. H.; Li, C. K.; Petrasso, R. D.; Glebov, V. Yu.; Katz, J.; Magoon, J.; Meyerhofer, D. D.; et al

    2013-04-18

    The neutron spectrum produced by deuterium-tritium (DT) inertial confinement fusion implosions contains a wealth of information about implosion performance including the DT yield, iontemperature, and areal-density. The Magnetic Recoil Spectrometer (MRS) has been used at both the OMEGA laser facility and the National Ignition Facility (NIF) to measure the absolute neutron spectrum from 3 to 30 MeV at OMEGA and 3 to 36 MeV at the NIF. These measurements have been used to diagnose the performance of cryogenic target implosions to unprecedented accuracy. Interpretation of MRS data requires a detailed understanding of the MRS response and background. This paper describesmore » ab initio characterization of the system involving Monte Carlo simulations of the MRS response in addition to the commission experiments for in situ calibration of the systems on OMEGA and the NIF.« less

  17. Measurement of the Absolute Branching Fraction of D0 to K- pi+

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aubert, B.; Bona, M.; Boutigny, D.; Karyotakis, Y.; Lees, J.P.; Poireau, V.; Prudent, X.; Tisserand, V.; Zghiche, A.; Garra Tico, J.; Grauges, E.; Lopez, L.; Palano, A.; Eigen, G.; Ofte, I.; Stugu, B.; Sun, L.; Abrams, G.S.; Battaglia, M.; Brown, D.N.; Button-Shafer, J.; /LBL, Berkeley /Birmingham U. /Ruhr U., Bochum /Bristol U. /British Columbia U. /Brunel U. /Novosibirsk, IYF /UC, Irvine /UCLA /UC, Riverside /UC, San Diego /UC, Santa Barbara /UC, Santa Cruz /Caltech /Cincinnati U. /Colorado U. /Colorado State U. /Dortmund U. /Munich, Tech. U. /Ecole Polytechnique /Edinburgh U. /Ferrara U. /Frascati /Genoa U. /Harvard U. /Heidelberg U. /Imperial Coll., London /Iowa U. /Iowa State U. /Johns Hopkins U. /Karlsruhe U. /Orsay, LAL /LLNL, Livermore /Liverpool U. /Queen Mary, U. of London /Royal Holloway, U. of London /Louisville U. /Manchester U. /Maryland U. /Massachusetts U., Amherst /MIT, LNS /McGill U. /Maryland U. /INFN, Milan /Mississippi U. /Montreal U. /Mt. Holyoke Coll. /Naples U. /NIKHEF, Amsterdam /Notre Dame U. /Ohio State U. /Oregon U. /Padua U. /Paris U., VI-VII /Pennsylvania U. /Perugia U. /Pisa U. /Prairie View A-M /Princeton U. /INFN, Rome /Rostock U. /Rutherford /DSM, DAPNIA, Saclay /South Carolina U. /SLAC /Stanford U., Phys. Dept. /SUNY, Albany /Tennessee U. /Texas U. /Texas U., Dallas /Turin U. /Trieste U. /Valencia U., IFIC /Victoria U. /Warwick U. /Wisconsin U., Madison /Yale U.

    2007-04-25

    The authors measure the absolute branching fraction for D{sup 0} {yields} K{sup -} {pi}{sup +} using partial reconstruction of {bar B}{sup 0} {yields} D*{sup +}X{ell}{sup -}{bar {nu}}{sub {ell}} decays, in which only the charged lepton and the pion from the decay D*{sup +} {yields} D{sup 0}{pi}{sup +} are used. Based on a data sample of 230 million B{bar B} pairs collected at the {Upsilon}(4S) resonance with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy B Factory at SLAC, they obtain {Beta}(D{sup 0} {yields} K{sup -}{pi}{sup +}) = (4.007 {+-} 0.037 {+-} 0.070)%, where the first error is statistical and the second error is systematic.

  18. Analog morphocorrelation: new technique with implications for high-resolution absolute age dating

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arnold, A.J.; Parker, W.C.; Berggren, W.A.

    1986-05-01

    The conventional approach to increased biostratigraphic resolution involves identifying additional datum planes defined by discrete events. Multivariate techniques used to refine a conventional taxonomic zonal scheme offer no improvement in precision; however, since the characters on which the zonal boundaries are based often show continuous stratigraphic variation, they offer an opportunity for continuous stratigraphic correlation based on the stage of evolution. Morphometric analysis was conducted on two lineages: (1) the Globorotalia cibaoensis-G. crassaformis linage, using a reference section from the early Pliocene of the Rio Grande rise, spanning approximately 2.6 m.y.; and (2) the G. conoidea-G.inflata lineage, using a reference section from the late Miocene to the Holocene from the southwest Pacific, spanning approximately 8 m.y. Stepwise multiple regression of morphologic variates generated an equation with an age-prediction precision (95% confidence) of +/- 122 k.y. in the G. crassaformis lineage and +/- 463 k.y. in the G conoidea lineage (accuracy depends on calibration of absolute dates in the reference section and our knowledge of sedimentation rates over the measured interval). Using single-equation analog morphocorrelation, any sample overlapped by the reference lineage can be correlated, which reduce the need for repeated sampling in a search for discrete events. The authors demonstrate that analysis of continuous morphologic variation can increase stratigraphic precision with a few carefully chosen variables, and that analog morpho-correlation can yield absolute dates, rather than relative dates with quantified error. Any disadvantages inherent in analog morphocorrelation are also found in conventional biostratigraphic techniques, but are usually unquantified and unrecognized.

  19. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  20. Fact #614: March 15, 2010 Average Age of Household Vehicles | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy 4: March 15, 2010 Average Age of Household Vehicles Fact #614: March 15, 2010 Average Age of Household Vehicles The average age of household vehicles has increased from 6.6 years in 1977 to 9.2 years in 2009. Pickup trucks have the oldest average age in every year listed. Sport utility vehicles (SUVs), first reported in the 1995 survey, have the youngest average age. Average Vehicle Age by Vehicle Type Graph showing the average vehicle age by type (car, van, pickup, SUV, all household

  1. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the systems ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  2. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Finley, Catherine; Nakafuji, Dora; Peterson, Jack L.; Maggio, David; Marquis, Melinda

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

  3. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  4. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  5. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; et al

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

  6. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  7. Fact #671: April 18, 2011 Average Truck Speeds | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1: April 18, 2011 Average Truck Speeds Fact #671: April 18, 2011 Average Truck Speeds The Federal Highway Administration studies traffic volume and flow on major truck routes by tracking more than 500,000 trucks. The average speed of trucks on selected interstate highways is between 50 and 60 miles per hour (mph). The average operating speed of trucks is typically below 55 mph in major urban areas, border crossings, and in mountainous terrain. The difference in average speed between peak traffic

  8. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  9. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  10. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  11. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  12. Femtosecond frequency comb measurement of absolute frequencies and hyperfine coupling constants in cesium vapor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stalnaker, Jason E.; Mbele, Vela; Gerginov, Vladislav; Fortier, Tara M.; Diddams, Scott A.; Hollberg, Leo; Tanner, Carol E.

    2010-04-15

    We report measurements of absolute transition frequencies and hyperfine coupling constants for the 8S{sub 1/2}, 9S{sub 1/2}, 7D{sub 3/2}, and 7D{sub 5/2} states in {sup 133}Cs vapor. The stepwise excitation through either the 6P{sub 1/2} or 6P{sub 3/2} intermediate state is performed directly with broadband laser light from a stabilized femtosecond laser optical-frequency comb. The laser beam is split, counterpropagated, and focused into a room-temperature Cs vapor cell. The repetition rate of the frequency comb is scanned and we detect the fluorescence on the 7P{sub 1/2,3/2{yields}}6S{sub 1/2} branches of the decay of the excited states. The excitations to the different states are isolated by the introduction of narrow-bandwidth interference filters in the laser beam paths. Using a nonlinear least-squares method we find measurements of transition frequencies and hyperfine coupling constants that are in agreement with other recent measurements for the 8S state and provide improvement by 2 orders of magnitude over previously published results for the 9S and 7D states.

  13. In-Flight Measurement of the Absolute Energy Scale of the Fermi Large Area Telescope

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Allafort, A.; Atwood, W.B.; Axelsson, M.; Baldini, L.; Barbiellini, G.; Bastieri, D.; Bechtol, K.; Bellazzini, R.; Berenji, B.; Bloom, E.D.; Bonamente, E.; Borgland, A.W.; Bouvier, A.; Bregeon, J.; Brez, A.; Brigida, M.; Bruel, P.; Buehler, R.; Buson, S.; /more authors..

    2012-09-20

    The Large Area Telescope (LAT) on-board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope is a pair-conversion telescope designed to survey the gamma-ray sky from 20 MeV to several hundreds of GeV. In this energy band there are no astronomical sources with sufficiently well known and sharp spectral features to allow an absolute calibration of the LAT energy scale. However, the geomagnetic cutoff in the cosmic ray electron-plus-positron (CRE) spectrum in low Earth orbit does provide such a spectral feature. The energy and spectral shape of this cutoff can be calculated with the aid of a numerical code tracing charged particles in the Earth's magnetic field. By comparing the cutoff value with that measured by the LAT in different geomagnetic positions, we have obtained several calibration points between {approx}6 and {approx}13 GeV with an estimated uncertainty of {approx}2%. An energy calibration with such high accuracy reduces the systematic uncertainty in LAT measurements of, for example, the spectral cutoff in the emission from gamma ray pulsars.

  14. Absolute calibration method for laser megajoule neutron yield measurement by activation diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Landoas, Olivier; Rosse, Bertrand; Briat, Michelle; Marmouget, Jean Gabriel; Varignon, Cyril; Ledoux, Xavier; Caillaud, Tony; Thfoin, Isabelle; Bourgade, Jean-Luc; Glebov, Vladimir Yu; Sangster, Thomas C.; Duffy, Tim; Disdier, Laurent

    2011-07-15

    The laser megajoule (LMJ) and the National Ignition Facility (NIF) plan to demonstrate thermonuclear ignition using inertial confinement fusion (ICF). The neutron yield is one of the most important parameters to characterize ICF experiment performance. For decades, the activation diagnostic was chosen as a reference at ICF facilities and is now planned to be the first nuclear diagnostic on LMJ, measuring both 2.45 MeV and 14.1 MeV neutron yields. Challenges for the activation diagnostic development are absolute calibration, accuracy, range requirement, and harsh environment. At this time, copper and zirconium material are identified for 14.1 MeV neutron yield measurement and indium material for 2.45 MeV neutrons. A series of calibrations were performed at Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA) on a Van de Graff facility to determine activation diagnostics efficiencies and to compare them with results from calculations. The CEA copper activation diagnostic was tested on the OMEGA facility during DT implosion. Experiments showed that CEA and Laboratory for Laser Energetics (LLE) diagnostics agree to better than 1% on the neutron yield measurement, with an independent calibration for each system. Also, experimental sensitivities are in good agreement with simulations and allow us to scale activation diagnostics for the LMJ measurement range.

  15. ARCADE 2 MEASUREMENT OF THE ABSOLUTE SKY BRIGHTNESS AT 3-90 GHz

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fixsen, D. J.; Levin, S.; Seiffert, M.; Limon, M.; Lubin, P.; Mirel, P.; Singal, J.; Villela, T.; Wuensche, C. A.

    2011-06-10

    The ARCADE 2 instrument has measured the absolute temperature of the sky at frequencies 3, 8, 10, 30, and 90 GHz, using an open-aperture cryogenic instrument observing at balloon altitudes with no emissive windows between the beam-forming optics and the sky. An external blackbody calibrator provides an in situ reference. Systematic errors were greatly reduced by using differential radiometers and cooling all critical components to physical temperatures approximating the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature. A linear model is used to compare the output of each radiometer to a set of thermometers on the instrument. Small corrections are made for the residual emission from the flight train, balloon, atmosphere, and foreground Galactic emission. The ARCADE 2 data alone show an excess radio rise of 54 {+-} 6 mK at 3.3 GHz in addition to a CMB temperature of 2.731 {+-} 0.004 K. Combining the ARCADE 2 data with data from the literature shows an excess power-law spectrum of T = 24.1 {+-} 2.1 (K) ({nu}/{nu}{sub 0}){sup -2.599{+-}0.036} from 22 MHz to 10 GHz ({nu}{sub 0} = 310 MHz) in addition to a CMB temperature of 2.725 {+-} 0.001 K.

  16. Comparison of absolute spectral irradiance responsivity measurement techniques using wavelength-tunable lasers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ahtee, Ville; Brown, Steven W.; Larason, Thomas C.; Lykke, Keith R.; Ikonen, Erkki; Noorma, Mart

    2007-07-10

    Independent methods for measuring the absolute spectral irradiance responsivity of detectors have been compared between the calibration facilities at two national metrology institutes, the Helsinki University of Technology (TKK), Finland, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The emphasis is on the comparison of two different techniques for generating a uniform irradiance at a reference plane using wavelength-tunable lasers. At TKK's Laser Scanning Facility (LSF) the irradiance is generated by raster scanning a single collimated laser beam, while at the NIST facility for Spectral Irradiance and Radiance Responsivity Calibrations with Uniform Sources (SIRCUS), lasers are introduced into integrating spheres to generate a uniform irradiance at a reference plane. The laser-based irradiance responsivity results are compared to a traditional lamp-monochromator-based irradiance responsivity calibration obtained at the NIST Spectral Comparator Facility (SCF). A narrowband filter radiometer with a24 nm bandwidth and an effective band-center wavelength of 801 nm was used as the artifact. The results of the comparison between the different facilities, reported for the first time in the near-infrared wavelength range, demonstrate agreement at the uncertainty level of less than 0.1%. This result has significant implications in radiation thermometry and in photometry as well as in radiometry.

  17. Fact #715: February 20, 2012 The Average Age of Light Vehicles Continues to Rise

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The average age for cars and light trucks continues to rise as consumers hold onto their vehicles longer. Between 1995 and 2011, the average age for cars increased by 32% from 8.4 years to 11.1...

  18. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  19. Hubble space telescope absolute proper motions of NGC 6681 (M70) and the sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Massari, D.; Ferraro, F. R.; Dalessandro, E.; Lanzoni, B.

    2013-12-10

    We have measured absolute proper motions for the three populations intercepted in the direction of the Galactic globular cluster NGC 6681: the cluster itself, the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy, and the field. For this, we used Hubble Space Telescope ACS/WFC and WFC3/UVIS optical imaging data separated by a temporal baseline of 5.464 yr. Five background galaxies were used to determine the zero point of the absolute-motion reference frame. The resulting absolute proper motion of NGC 6681 is (?{sub ?}cos ?, ?{sub ?}) = (1.58 0.18, 4.57 0.16) mas yr{sup 1}. This is the first estimate ever made for this cluster. For the Sgr dSph we obtain (?{sub ?}cos ?, ?{sub ?}) = 2.54 0.18, 1.19 0.16) mas yr{sup 1}, consistent with previous measurements and with the values predicted by theoretical models. The absolute proper motion of the Galaxy population in our field of view is (?{sub ?}cos ?, ?{sub ?}) = ( 1.21 0.27, 4.39 0.26) mas yr{sup 1}. In this study we also use background Sagittarius Dwarf Spheroidal stars to determine the rotation of the globular cluster in the plane of the sky and find that NGC 6681 is not rotating significantly: v {sub rot} = 0.82 1.02 km s{sup 1} at a distance of 1' from the cluster center.

  20. AN ACCURATE NEW METHOD OF CALCULATING ABSOLUTE MAGNITUDES AND K-CORRECTIONS APPLIED TO THE SLOAN FILTER SET

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beare, Richard; Brown, Michael J. I.; Pimbblet, Kevin

    2014-12-20

    We describe an accurate new method for determining absolute magnitudes, and hence also K-corrections, that is simpler than most previous methods, being based on a quadratic function of just one suitably chosen observed color. The method relies on the extensive and accurate new set of 129 empirical galaxy template spectral energy distributions from Brown et al. A key advantage of our method is that we can reliably estimate random errors in computed absolute magnitudes due to galaxy diversity, photometric error and redshift error. We derive K-corrections for the five Sloan Digital Sky Survey filters and provide parameter tables for use by the astronomical community. Using the New York Value-Added Galaxy Catalog, we compare our K-corrections with those from kcorrect. Our K-corrections produce absolute magnitudes that are generally in good agreement with kcorrect. Absolute griz magnitudes differ by less than 0.02 mag and those in the u band by ∼0.04 mag. The evolution of rest-frame colors as a function of redshift is better behaved using our method, with relatively few galaxies being assigned anomalously red colors and a tight red sequence being observed across the whole 0.0 < z < 0.5 redshift range.

  1. Setting Whole-Building Absolute Energy Use Targets for the K-12 School, Retail, and Healthcare Sectors: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leach, M.; Bonnema, E.; Pless, S.; Torcellini, P.

    2012-08-01

    This paper helps owners' efficiency representatives to inform executive management, contract development, and project management staff as to how specifying and applying whole-building absolute energy use targets for new construction or renovation projects can improve the operational energy performance of commercial buildings.

  2. Fact #849: December 1, 2014 Midsize Hybrid Cars Averaged 51% Better Fuel

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Economy than Midsize Non-Hybrid Cars in 2014 | Department of Energy 9: December 1, 2014 Midsize Hybrid Cars Averaged 51% Better Fuel Economy than Midsize Non-Hybrid Cars in 2014 Fact #849: December 1, 2014 Midsize Hybrid Cars Averaged 51% Better Fuel Economy than Midsize Non-Hybrid Cars in 2014 For the 2014 model year, midsize hybrid cars averaged 43.4 miles per gallon (mpg) while midsize non-hybrid cars averaged 28.7 mpg; the difference between the two has narrowed due to the rising average

  3. ELLIPSOIDAL VARIABLE V1197 ORIONIS: ABSOLUTE LIGHT-VELOCITY ANALYSIS FOR KNOWN DISTANCE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilson, R. E.; Chochol, D.; KomzIk, R.; Van Hamme, W.; Pribulla, T.; Volkov, I.

    2009-09-01

    V1197 Orionis light curves from a long-term observing program for red giant binaries show ellipsoidal variation of small amplitude in the V and R{sub C} bands, although not clearly in U and B. Eclipses are not detected. All four bands show large irregular intrinsic variations, including fleeting quasi-periodicities identified by power spectra, that degrade analysis and may be caused by dynamical tides generated by orbital eccentricity. To deal with the absence of eclipses and consequent lack of astrophysical and geometrical information, direct use is made of the Hipparcos parallax distance while the V and R{sub C} light curves and (older) radial velocity curves are analyzed simultaneously in terms of absolute flux. The red giant's temperature is estimated from new spectra. This type of analysis, called Inverse Distance Estimation for brevity, is new and can also be applied to other ellipsoidal variables. Advantages gained by utilization of definite distance and temperature are discussed in regard to how radius, fractional lobe filling, and mass ratio information are expressed in the observations. The advantages were tested in solutions of noisy synthetic data. Also discussed and tested by simulations are ideas on the optimal number of light curves to be solved simultaneously under various conditions. The dim companion has not been observed or discussed in the literature but most solutions find its mass to be well below that of the red giant. Solutions show red giant masses that are too low for evolution to the red giant stage within the age of the Galaxy, although that result is probably an artifact of the intrinsic brightness fluctuations.

  4. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  5. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  6. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  7. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  8. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  9. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  10. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  11. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  12. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Report forecasting the U.S. energy savings of LED white-light sources compared to conventional white-light sources (i.e., incandescent, halogen, fluorescent, and high-intensity discharge) over the...

  13. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  14. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  15. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  16. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  17. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  18. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  19. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  20. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  1. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  2. Average U.S. household to spend $710 less on gasoline during 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    natural gas inventories at end of winter higher than last year Despite recent cold temperatures in some parts of the country, U.S. natural gas inventories ended the winter heating season in better shape than last year. In its new forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said natural gas inventories near the end of March were 75% higher compared with the same period in 2014. That sets up adequate supplies for gas-fired power plants this summer to meet electric cooling needs of

  3. Fact #910: February 1, 2016 Study Shows Average Cost of Electric Vehicle

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Charger Installations - Dataset | Department of Energy 0: February 1, 2016 Study Shows Average Cost of Electric Vehicle Charger Installations - Dataset Fact #910: February 1, 2016 Study Shows Average Cost of Electric Vehicle Charger Installations - Dataset Excel file and dataset for Study Shows Average Cost of Electric Vehicle Charger Installations fotw#910_web.xlsx (16.26 KB) More Documents & Publications Fact #909: January 25, 2016 Workplace Charging Accounts for About a Third of All

  4. Table 7.4 Average Prices of Selected Purchased Energy Sources...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4 Average Prices of Selected Purchased Energy Sources, 2002;" " Level: National and Regional Data; " " Row: Values of Shipments and Employment Sizes;" " Column: Energy Sources;" " ...

  5. Plan averaging for multicriteria navigation of sliding window IMRT and VMAT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Craft, David Papp, Dávid; Unkelbach, Jan

    2014-02-15

    Purpose: To describe a method for combining sliding window plans [intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) or volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT)] for use in treatment plan averaging, which is needed for Pareto surface navigation based multicriteria treatment planning. Methods: The authors show that by taking an appropriately defined average of leaf trajectories of sliding window plans, the authors obtain a sliding window plan whose fluence map is the exact average of the fluence maps corresponding to the initial plans. In the case of static-beam IMRT, this also implies that the dose distribution of the averaged plan is the exact dosimetric average of the initial plans. In VMAT delivery, the dose distribution of the averaged plan is a close approximation of the dosimetric average of the initial plans. Results: The authors demonstrate the method on three Pareto optimal VMAT plans created for a demanding paraspinal case, where the tumor surrounds the spinal cord. The results show that the leaf averaged plans yield dose distributions that approximate the dosimetric averages of the precomputed Pareto optimal plans well. Conclusions: The proposed method enables the navigation of deliverable Pareto optimal plans directly, i.e., interactive multicriteria exploration of deliverable sliding window IMRT and VMAT plans, eliminating the need for a sequencing step after navigation and hence the dose degradation that is caused by such a sequencing step.

  6. Fact #889: September 7, 2015 Average Diesel Price Lower than Gasoline for

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    the First Time in Six Years | Department of Energy 9: September 7, 2015 Average Diesel Price Lower than Gasoline for the First Time in Six Years Fact #889: September 7, 2015 Average Diesel Price Lower than Gasoline for the First Time in Six Years SUBSCRIBE to the Fact of the Week In July of 2015, the nationwide average price of diesel was lower than the average price of a regular gallon of gasoline for the first time since June 2009. Both gasoline and diesel prices fluctuate throughout the

  7. Fact #915: March 7, 2016 Average Historical Annual Gasoline Pump Price,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1929-2015 - Dataset | Department of Energy 5: March 7, 2016 Average Historical Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2015 - Dataset Fact #915: March 7, 2016 Average Historical Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2015 - Dataset Excel file and dataset for Average Historical Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2015 fotw#915_web.xlsx (24.76 KB) More Documents & Publications Fact #835: August 25, 2014 Average Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2013 - Dataset Fact #888: August 31, 2015 Historical Gas

  8. Fact #835: August 25, 2014 Average Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2013

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    - Dataset | Department of Energy 5: August 25, 2014 Average Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2013 - Dataset Fact #835: August 25, 2014 Average Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2013 - Dataset Excel file with dataset for Fact #835: Average Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2013 fotw#835_web.xlsx (21.31 KB) More Documents & Publications Fact #915: March 7, 2016 Average Historical Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2015 - Dataset Fact #888: August 31, 2015 Historical Gas Prices - Dataset

  9. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and

  10. A comparison of absolute calibrations of a radiation thermometer based on a monochromator and a tunable source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keawprasert, T.; Anhalt, K.; Taubert, D. R.; Sperling, A.; Schuster, M.; Nevas, S.

    2013-09-11

    An LP3 radiation thermometer was absolutely calibrated at a newly developed monochromator-based set-up and the TUneable Lasers in Photometry (TULIP) facility of PTB in the wavelength range from 400 nm to 1100 nm. At both facilities, the spectral radiation of the respective sources irradiates an integrating sphere, thus generating uniform radiance across its precision aperture. The spectral irradiance of the integrating sphere is determined via an effective area of a precision aperture and a Si trap detector, traceable to the primary cryogenic radiometer of PTB. Due to the limited output power from the monochromator, the absolute calibration was performed with the measurement uncertainty of 0.17 % (k= 1), while the respective uncertainty at the TULIP facility is 0.14 %. Calibration results obtained by the two facilities were compared in terms of spectral radiance responsivity, effective wavelength and integral responsivity. It was found that the measurement results in integral responsivity at the both facilities are in agreement within the expanded uncertainty (k= 2). To verify the calibration accuracy, the absolutely calibrated radiation thermometer was used to measure the thermodynamic freezing temperatures of the PTB gold fixed-point blackbody.

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  12. A comparison of spatial averaging and Cadzow's method for array wavenumber estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harris, D.B.; Clark, G.A.

    1989-10-31

    We are concerned with resolving superimposed, correlated seismic waves with small-aperture arrays. The limited time-bandwidth product of transient seismic signals complicates the task. We examine the use of MUSIC and Cadzow's ML estimator with and without subarray averaging for resolution potential. A case study with real data favors the MUSIC algorithm and a multiple event covariance averaging scheme.

  13. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  14. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zulkepli, Jafri Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

    2015-12-11

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

  15. Diesel prices continue to increase … U.S. average over $4

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Diesel prices continue to increase - U.S. average over $4 The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel broke the 4-dollar mark for the first time since last March. The U.S. retail average rose to $4.02 a gallon. That's up 2.8 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the New England region at 4.39 a gallon, up 1.3 cents from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast states at 3.81 a

  16. Fact #622: May 10, 2010 Average Length of Light Vehicle Ownership |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy 2: May 10, 2010 Average Length of Light Vehicle Ownership Fact #622: May 10, 2010 Average Length of Light Vehicle Ownership Vehicle owners are holding onto their vehicles for a longer period, according to data from R.L. Polk and Company. The vehicle retention trends show that owners held onto a new vehicle for 56.3 months in 2008, up from 48.4 months six years earlier. New vehicle owners hold onto vehicles about 15 or 16 months longer than used vehicle owners. Average

  17. Fact #624: May 24, 2010 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards, Model

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Years 2012-2016 | Department of Energy 4: May 24, 2010 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards, Model Years 2012-2016 Fact #624: May 24, 2010 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards, Model Years 2012-2016 The final rule for the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards was published in March 2010. Under this rule, each light vehicle model produced for sale in the United States will have a fuel economy target based on its footprint. A vehicle's footprint is defined as the wheelbase

  18. Fact #638: August 30, 2010 Average Expenditure for a New Car Declines in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Relation to Family Earnings | Department of Energy 8: August 30, 2010 Average Expenditure for a New Car Declines in Relation to Family Earnings Fact #638: August 30, 2010 Average Expenditure for a New Car Declines in Relation to Family Earnings Although the average expenditure for a new car has increased from 1967 to 2009, family earnings have also been on the rise. For this period, new car expenditures went from $3,216 to $23,186, while median family earnings went from $7,933 to $77,149.

  19. Fact #889: September 7, 2015 Average Diesel Price Lower than Gasoline for

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    the First Time in Six Years - Dataset | Department of Energy 9: September 7, 2015 Average Diesel Price Lower than Gasoline for the First Time in Six Years - Dataset Fact #889: September 7, 2015 Average Diesel Price Lower than Gasoline for the First Time in Six Years - Dataset Excel file and dataset for Average Diesel Price Lower than Gasoline for the First Time in Six Years fotw#889_web.xlsx (19.04 KB) More Documents & Publications Fact #859 February 9, 2015 Excess Supply is the Most

  20. Fact #915: March 7, 2016 Average Historical Annual Gasoline Pump Price,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1929-2015 | Department of Energy 915: March 7, 2016 Average Historical Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2015 Fact #915: March 7, 2016 Average Historical Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2015 SUBSCRIBE to the Fact of the Week When adjusted for inflation, the average annual price of gasoline has fluctuated greatly, and has recently experienced sharp increases and decreases. The effect of the U.S. embargo of oil from Iran can be seen in the early 1980's with the price of gasoline peaking in

  1. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  2. Regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a quasi-operational forecasting environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zupanski, M. )

    1993-08-01

    Four-dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to a regional forecast model as part of the development of a new data assimilation system at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The assimilation employs an operational version of the NMC's new regional forecast model defined in eta vertical coordinates, and data used are operationally produced optimal interpolation (OI) analyses (using the first guess from the NMC's global spectral model), available every 3 h. Humidity and parameterized processes are not included in the adjoint model integration. The calculation of gradients by the adjoint model is approximate since the forecast model is used in its full-physics operational form. All experiments are over a 12-h assimilation period with subsequent 48-h forecast. Three different types of assimilation experiments are performed: (a) adjustment of initial conditions only (standard [open quotes]adjoint[close quotes] approach), (b) adjustment of a correction to the model equations only (variational continuous assimilation), and (c) simultaneous or sequential adjustment of both initial conditions and the correction term. Results indicate significantly better results when the correction term is included in the assimilation. It is shown, for a single case, that the new technique [experiment (c)] is able to produce a forecast better than the current conventional OI assimilation. It is very important to note that these results are obtained with an approximate gradient, calculated from a simplified adjoint model. Thus, it may be possible to perform an operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation of realistic forecast models, even before more complex adjoint models are developed. Also, the results suggest that it may be possible to reduce the large computational cost of assimilation by using only a few iterations of the minimization algorithm. This fast convergence is encouraging from the prospective of operational use. 37 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models

  4. Fact #728: May 21, 2012 Average Trip Length is Less Than Ten Miles

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The average trip length (one-way) is 9.7 miles according to the 2009 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey. Trip lengths vary by the purpose of the trip. Shopping and family/personal business...

  5. Fact #693: September 19, 2011 Average Vehicle Footprint for Cars and Light Trucks

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A vehicle footprint is the area defined by the four points where the tires touch the ground. It is calculated as the product of the wheelbase and the average track width of the vehicle. The...

  6. Fact #870: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress, 1978-2014

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) is the sales-weighted harmonic mean fuel economy of a manufacturer’s fleet of new cars or light trucks in a certain model year (MY). First enacted by...

  7. Determination of the absolute configuration of (-)-(2R)-succinic-2-d acid by neutron diffraction study: Unambiguous proof of the absolute stereochemistry of the NAD/sup +//NADH interconversion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yuan, H.S.H.; Stevens, R.C.; Fujita, S.; Watkins, M.I.; Koetzle, T.F.; Bau, R.

    1988-05-01

    The absolute configuration of the CHD group (D = deuterium) in (-)-(2R)-succinic-2-d acid, as prepared from (-)-(2S,3R)-malic-3-d acid, has been shown unambiguously to be R by the technique of single-crystal neutron diffraction. The optically active cation (+)-phenylethylammonium was used as the chiral reference. The structure of (C/sub 6/H/sub 5/CH/sub 3/CHNH/sub 3/)/sup +/(HOOCCH/sub 2/CHDCOOO)/sup -/ has been studied with x-ray diffraction at room temperature and neutron diffraction at room temperature and neutron diffraction at 100 K. Crystal data from the neutron diffraction analysis of the phenylethylammonium slat of the title compound at 100 K: space group P2/sub 1/; a = 8.407 /angstrom/, b = 8.300 /angstrom/, c = 8.614 /angstrom/, ..beta.. = 91.20/degrees/; unit cell volume = 600.9 /angstrom//sup 3/, Z = 2. The result confirms the stereochemistry of the malate/succinate transformation, as well as the NAD/sup +//NADH interconversion, and demonstrates the usefulness of the single-crystal neutron diffraction method for determining the absolute configuration of molecules having a chiral monodeuteriomethylene group.

  8. ARM - Field Campaign - 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaigns915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2011.05.31 - 2012.05.31 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of the installation of a 37 MW solar array on the grounds of Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), a study

  9. ARM - Field Campaign - Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaignsRadar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2013.07.15 - 2015.08.06 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of recent activities funded by the DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) to produce short-term

  10. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  11. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  12. Table 2. Value and average value of photovoltaic module shipments, 2014

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Value and average value of photovoltaic module shipments, 2014" "Module value, total shipments (thousand dollars)" "Total Modules ",5425417 "Module average value (dollars per peak watt)" "Total Modules ",0.87 "Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-63B, 'Annual Photovoltaic Cell/Module Shipments Report' Note: Dollars are not adjusted for inflation.

  13. Variation in the annual average radon concentration measured in homes in Mesa County, Colorado

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rood, A.S.; George, J.L.; Langner, G.H. Jr.

    1990-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the variability in the annual average indoor radon concentration. The TMC has been collecting annual average radon data for the past 5 years in 33 residential structures in Mesa County, Colorado. This report is an interim report that presents the data collected up to the present. Currently, the plans are to continue this study in the future. 62 refs., 3 figs., 12 tabs.

  14. Fact #910: February 1, 2016 Study Shows Average Cost of Electric Vehicle

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Charger Installations | Department of Energy 0: February 1, 2016 Study Shows Average Cost of Electric Vehicle Charger Installations Fact #910: February 1, 2016 Study Shows Average Cost of Electric Vehicle Charger Installations SUBSCRIBE to the Fact of the Week The EV Project and the ChargePoint America project were conducted for the Department of Energy by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). From 2011-2013 the project installed nearly 17,000 alternating current (AC) Level 2 charging stations

  15. Reliability of oceanic heat flow averages (Journal Article) | SciTech

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Connect Reliability of oceanic heat flow averages Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Reliability of oceanic heat flow averages One of the major problems in the use of heat flow data in a quantitative manner has been the variability of closely spaced measurements. It is suggested that this variability is directly related to hydrothermal circulation in an ''effectively permeable'' oceanic crust. As a consequence, only where this crust is sealed from the seawater by an extensive and

  16. Revision of the Branch Technical Position on Concentration Averaging and Encapsulation - 12510

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heath, Maurice; Kennedy, James E.; Ridge, Christianne; Lowman, Donald [U.S. NRC, Washington, DC, 20555-0001 (United States); Cochran, John [Sandia National Laboratory (United States)

    2012-07-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulation governing low-level waste (LLW) disposal, 'Licensing Requirements for Land Disposal of Radioactive Waste', 10 CFR Part 61, establishes a waste classification system based on the concentration of specific radionuclides contained in the waste. The regulation also states, at 10 CFR 61.55(a)(8), that, 'the concentration of a radionuclide (in waste) may be averaged over the volume of the waste, or weight of the waste if the units are expressed as nanocuries per gram'. The NRC's Branch Technical Position on Concentration Averaging and Encapsulation provides guidance on averaging radionuclide concentrations in waste under 10 CFR 61.55(a)(8) when classifying waste for disposal. In 2007, the NRC staff proposed to revise the Branch Technical Position on Concentration Averaging and Encapsulation. The Branch Technical Position on Concentration Averaging and Encapsulation is an NRC guidance document for averaging and classifying wastes under 10 CFR 61. The Branch Technical Position on Concentration Averaging and Encapsulation is used by nuclear power plants (NPPs) licensees and sealed source users, among others. In addition, three of the four U.S. LLW disposal facility operators are required to honor the Branch Technical Position on Concentration Averaging and Encapsulation as a licensing condition. In 2010, the Commission directed the staff to develop guidance regarding large scale blending of similar homogenous waste types, as described in SECY-10-0043 as part of its Branch Technical Position on Concentration Averaging and Encapsulation revision. The Commission is improving the regulatory approach used in the Branch Technical Position on Concentration Averaging and Encapsulation by moving towards a making it more risk-informed and performance-based approach, which is more consistent with the agency's regulatory policies. Among the improvements to the Branch Technical Position on Concentration Averaging and Encapsulation

  17. ABSOLUTE TIMING OF THE CRAB PULSAR WITH THE INTEGRAL/SPI TELESCOPE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Molkov, S.; Jourdain, E.; Roques, J. P.

    2010-01-01

    We have investigated the pulse shape evolution of the Crab pulsar emission in the hard X-ray domain of the electromagnetic spectrum. In particular, we have studied the alignment of the Crab pulsar phase profiles measured in the hard X-rays and in other wavebands. To obtain the hard X-ray pulse profiles, we have used six years (2003-2009, with a total exposure of about 4 Ms) of publicly available data of the SPI telescope on-board the International Gamma-Ray Astrophysics Laboratory observatory, folded with the pulsar time solution derived from the Jodrell Bank Crab Pulsar Monthly Ephemeris. We found that the main pulse in the hard X-ray 20-100 keV energy band leads the radio one by 8.18 +- 0.46 milliperiods in phase, or 275 +- 15 mus in time. Quoted errors represent only statistical uncertainties. Our systematic error is estimated to be approx40 mus and is mainly caused by the radio measurement uncertainties. In hard X-rays, the average distance between the main pulse and interpulse on the phase plane is 0.3989 +- 0.0009. To compare our findings in hard X-rays with the soft 2-20 keV X-ray band, we have used data of quasi-simultaneous Crab observations with the proportional counter array monitor on-board the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer mission. The time lag and the pulses separation values measured in the 3-20 keV band are 0.00933 +- 0.00016 (corresponding to 310 +- 6 mus) and 0.40016 +- 0.00028 parts of the cycle, respectively. While the pulse separation values measured in soft X-rays and hard X-rays agree, the time lags are statistically different. Additional analysis show that the delay between the radio and X-ray signals varies with energy in the 2-300 keV energy range. We explain such a behavior as due to the superposition of two independent components responsible for the Crab pulsed emission in this energy band.

  18. Precision laser surveying instrument using atmospheric turbulence compensation by determining the absolute displacement between two laser beam components

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Veligdan, James T.

    1993-01-01

    Atmospheric effects on sighting measurements are compensated for by adjusting any sighting measurements using a correction factor that does not depend on atmospheric state conditions such as temperature, pressure, density or turbulence. The correction factor is accurately determined using a precisely measured physical separation between two color components of a light beam (or beams) that has been generated using either a two-color laser or two lasers that project different colored beams. The physical separation is precisely measured by fixing the position of a short beam pulse and measuring the physical separation between the two fixed-in-position components of the beam. This precisely measured physical separation is then used in a relationship that includes the indexes of refraction for each of the two colors of the laser beam in the atmosphere through which the beam is projected, thereby to determine the absolute displacement of one wavelength component of the laser beam from a straight line of sight for that projected component of the beam. This absolute displacement is useful to correct optical measurements, such as those developed in surveying measurements that are made in a test area that includes the same dispersion effects of the atmosphere on the optical measurements. The means and method of the invention are suitable for use with either single-ended systems or a double-ended systems.

  19. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  20. Influence of wind speed averaging on estimates of dimethylsulfide emission fluxes

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Chapman, E. G.; Shaw, W. J.; Easter, R. C.; Bian, X.; Ghan, S. J.

    2002-12-03

    The effect of various wind-speed-averaging periods on calculated DMS emission fluxes is quantitatively assessed. Here, a global climate model and an emission flux module were run in stand-alone mode for a full year. Twenty-minute instantaneous surface wind speeds and related variables generated by the climate model were archived, and corresponding 1-hour-, 6-hour-, daily-, and monthly-averaged quantities calculated. These various time-averaged, model-derived quantities were used as inputs in the emission flux module, and DMS emissions were calculated using two expressions for the mass transfer velocity commonly used in atmospheric models. Results indicate that the time period selected for averaging wind speedsmore » can affect the magnitude of calculated DMS emission fluxes. A number of individual marine cells within the global grid show DMS emissions fluxes that are 10-60% higher when emissions are calculated using 20-minute instantaneous model time step winds rather than monthly-averaged wind speeds, and at some locations the differences exceed 200%. Many of these cells are located in the southern hemisphere where anthropogenic sulfur emissions are low and changes in oceanic DMS emissions may significantly affect calculated aerosol concentrations and aerosol radiative forcing.« less

  1. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  2. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  3. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  4. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  5. Reconstruction of ionization probabilities from spatially averaged data in N dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Strohaber, J.; Kolomenskii, A. A.; Schuessler, H. A.

    2010-07-15

    We present an analytical inversion technique, which can be used to recover ionization probabilities from spatially averaged data in an N-dimensional detection scheme. The solution is given as a power series in intensity. For this reason, we call this technique a multiphoton expansion (MPE). The MPE formalism was verified with an exactly solvable inversion problem in two dimensions, and probabilities in the postsaturation region, where the intensity-selective scanning approach breaks down, were recovered. In three dimensions, ionization probabilities of Xe were successfully recovered with MPE from simulated (using the Ammosov-Delone-Krainov tunneling theory) ion yields. Finally, we tested our approach with intensity-resolved benzene-ion yields, which show a resonant multiphoton ionization process. By applying MPE to this data (which were artificially averaged), the resonant structure was recovered, which suggests that the resonance in benzene may have been observed in spatially averaged data taken elsewhere.

  6. Average M shell fluorescence yields for elements with 70≤Z≤92

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kahoul, A.; Deghfel, B.; Aylikci, V.; Aylikci, N. K.; Nekkab, M.

    2015-03-30

    The theoretical, experimental and analytical methods for the calculation of average M-shell fluorescence yield (ω{sup ¯}{sub M}) of different elements are very important because of the large number of their applications in various areas of physical chemistry and medical research. In this paper, the bulk of the average M-shell fluorescence yield measurements reported in the literature, covering the period 1955 to 2005 are interpolated by using an analytical function to deduce the empirical average M-shell fluorescence yield in the atomic range of 70≤Z≤92. The results were compared with the theoretical and fitted values reported by other authors. Reasonable agreement was typically obtained between our result and other works.

  7. Online, absolute quantitation of propranolol from spatially distinct 20-μm and 40-μm dissections of brain, liver, and kidney thin tissue sections by laser microdissection – liquid vortex capture – mass spectrometry

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Kertesz, Vilmos; Vavrek, Marissa; Freddo, Carol; Van Berkel, Gary J.; Cahill, John F.; Weiskittel, Taylor M.

    2016-05-23

    Here, spatial resolved quantitation of chemical species in thin tissue sections by mass spectrometric methods has been constrained by the need for matrix-matched standards or other arduous calibration protocols and procedures to mitigate matrix effects (e.g., spatially varying ionization suppression). Reported here is the use of laser cut and drop sampling with a laser microdissection-liquid vortex capture electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry (LMD-LVC/ESI-MS/MS) system for online and absolute quantitation of propranolol in mouse brain, kidney, and liver thin tissue sections of mice administered with the drug at a 7.5 mg/kg dose, intravenously. In this procedure either 20 μm x 20more » μm or 40 μm x 40 μm tissue microdissections were cut and dropped into the flowing solvent of the capture probe. During transport to the ESI source drug related material was completely extracted from the tissue into the solvent, which contained a known concentration of propranolol-d7 as an internal standard. This allowed absolute quantitation to be achieved with an external calibration curve generated from standards containing the same fixed concentration of propranolold-d7 and varied concentrations of propranolol. Average propranolol concentrations determined with the laser cut and drop sampling method closely agreed with concentration values obtained from 2.3 mm diameter tissue punches from serial sections that were extracted and quantified by HPLC/ESI-MS/MS measurements. In addition, the relative abundance of hydroxypropranolol glucuronide metabolites were recorded and found to be consistent with previous findings.« less

  8. Comparison of average and point capillary pressure-saturation functions determined by steady-state centrifugation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cropper, Clark; Perfect, Edmund; van den Berg, Dr. Elmer; Mayes, Melanie

    2010-01-01

    The capillary pressure-saturation function can be determined from centrifuge drainage experiments. In soil physics, the data resulting from such experiments are usually analyzed by the 'averaging method.' In this approach, average relative saturation, , is expressed as a function of average capillary pressure, <{psi}>, i.e., (<{psi}>). In contrast, the capillary pressure-saturation function at a physical point, i.e., S({psi}), has been extracted from similar experiments in petrophysics using the 'integral method.' The purpose of this study was to introduce the integral method applied to centrifuge experiments to a soil physics audience and to compare S({psi}) and (<{psi}>) functions, as parameterized by the Brooks-Corey and van Genuchten equations, for 18 samples drawn from a range of porous media (i.e., Berea sandstone, glass beads, and Hanford sediments). Steady-state centrifuge experiments were performed on preconsolidated samples with a URC-628 Ultra-Rock Core centrifuge. The angular velocity and outflow data sets were then analyzed using both the averaging and integral methods. The results show that the averaging method smoothes out the drainage process, yielding less steep capillary pressure-saturation functions relative to the corresponding point-based curves. Maximum deviations in saturation between the two methods ranged from 0.08 to 0.28 and generally occurred at low suctions. These discrepancies can lead to inaccurate predictions of other hydraulic properties such as the relative permeability function. Therefore, we strongly recommend use of the integral method instead of the averaging method when determining the capillary pressure-saturation function by steady-state centrifugation. This method can be successfully implemented using either the van Genuchten or Brooks-Corey functions, although the latter provides a more physically precise description of air entry at a physical point.

  9. Table HC1.1.2 Housing Unit Characteristics by Average Floorspace, 2005

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2 Housing Unit Characteristics by Average Floorspace, 2005 " ,,"Average Square Feet per--" ," Housing Units (millions)" ,,"Housing Unit",,,"Household Member" "Housing Unit Characteristics",,"Total1","Heated","Cooled","Total","Heated","Cooled" "Total",111.1,2171,1618,1031,845,630,401 "Census Region and Division" "Northeast",20.6,2334,1664,562,911,649,220

  10. Table HC1.1.4 Housing Unit Characteristics by Average Floorspace--Apartments, 2

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4 Housing Unit Characteristics by Average Floorspace--Apartments, 2005" ,,,"Average Square Feet per Apartment in a --" ," Housing Units (millions)" ,,,"2 to 4 Unit Building",,,"5 or More Unit Building" ,,"Apartments (millions)" "Housing Unit Characteristics",,,"Total","Heated","Cooled","Total","Heated","Cooled" "Total",111.1,24.5,1090,902,341,872,780,441

  11. Table HC1.2.4 Living Space Characteristics by Average Floorspace--Apartments, 2

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2.4 Living Space Characteristics by Average Floorspace--Apartments, 2005" ,,,"Average Square Feet per Apartment in a --" ," Housing Units (millions)" ,,,"2 to 4 Unit Building",,,"5 or More Unit Building" ,,"Apartments (millions)" "Living Space Characteristics",,,"Total","Heated","Cooled","Total","Heated","Cooled" "Total",111.1,24.5,1090,902,341,872,780,441

  12. Performance and production requirements for the optical components in a high-average-power laser system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chow, R.; Doss, F.W.; Taylor, J.R.; Wong, J.N.

    1999-07-02

    Optical components needed for high-average-power lasers, such as those developed for Atomic Vapor Laser Isotope Separation (AVLIS), require high levels of performance and reliability. Over the past two decades, optical component requirements for this purpose have been optimized and performance and reliability have been demonstrated. Many of the optical components that are exposed to the high power laser light affect the quality of the beam as it is transported through the system. The specifications for these optics are described including a few parameters not previously reported and some component manufacturing and testing experience. Key words: High-average-power laser, coating efficiency, absorption, optical components

  13. ,"Sulfur Content, Weighted Average Refinery Crude Oil Input Qualities"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Sulfur Content, Weighted Average Refinery Crude Oil Input Qualities" ,"Click worksheet name or tab at bottom for data" ,"Worksheet Name","Description","# Of Series","Frequency","Latest Data for" ,"Data 1","Sulfur Content, Weighted Average Refinery Crude Oil Input Qualities",16,"Monthly","6/2016","1/15/1985" ,"Release Date:","8/31/2016" ,"Next Release

  14. The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose this week

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose this week The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose slightly to $3.90 a gallon on Monday. That's up 8-tenths of a penny from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the New England region, at 4.16 a gallon, down a penny from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Rocky Mountain States at $3.68 a gallon, down 1.7

  15. The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose this week

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose this week The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to $3.93 a gallon on Monday. That's up 2 ½ cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Prices increased in all regions across the U.S. The highest prices were found in the New England region, at 4.18 a gallon, up 2.3 cents from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Rocky Mountain States at $3.74 a gallon,

  16. U.S. diesel prices decrease … U.S. average still over $4

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    U.S. diesel prices decrease - U.S. average still over $4 The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel fell to $4.02 a gallon. That's down a tenth of a penny from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the New England region at 4.39 a gallon, up 3-tenths of a penny from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast states at 3.79 a gallon, down 1.3 cents.

  17. U.S. diesel prices decrease … U.S. average still over $4

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    U.S. diesel prices decrease - U.S. average still over $4 The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel fell to $4.00 a gallon. That's down 1.8 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the New England region and Central Atlantic states at 4.31 a gallon, down 4.9 and 3.9 cents, respectively, from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast states at 3.80 a gallon, down 1.1 cents.

  18. U.S. diesel prices increase … U.S. average still over $4

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    U.S. diesel prices increase - U.S. average still over $4 The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to $4.02 a gallon. That's up half a penny from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Diesel prices were highest in the New England region at 4.36 a gallon, down 2.7 cents from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast states at 3.81 a gallon, up 2.1 cents.

  19. A strict test of stellar evolution models: The absolute dimensions of the massive benchmark eclipsing binary V578 Mon

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garcia, E. V.; Stassun, Keivan G.; Pavlovski, K.; Hensberge, H.; Chew, Y. Gmez Maqueo; Claret, A.

    2014-09-01

    We determine the absolute dimensions of the eclipsing binary V578 Mon, a detached system of two early B-type stars (B0V + B1V, P = 2.40848 days) in the star-forming region NGC 2244 of the Rosette Nebula. From the light curve analysis of 40 yr of photometry and the analysis of HERMES spectra, we find radii of 5.41 0.04 R{sub ?} and 4.29 0.05 R{sub ?}, and temperatures of 30,000 500 K and 25,750 435 K, respectively. We find that our disentangled component spectra for V578 Mon agree well with previous spectral disentangling from the literature. We also reconfirm the previous spectroscopic orbit of V578 Mon finding that masses of 14.54 0.08 M{sub ?} and 10.29 0.06 M{sub ?} are fully compatible with the new analysis. We compare the absolute dimensions to the rotating models of the Geneva and Utrecht groups and the models of the Granada group. We find that all three sets of models marginally reproduce the absolute dimensions of both stars with a common age within the uncertainty for gravity-effective temperature isochrones. However, there are some apparent age discrepancies for the corresponding mass-radius isochrones. Models with larger convective overshoot, >0.35, worked best. Combined with our previously determined apsidal motion of 0.07089{sub ?0.00013}{sup +0.00021} deg cycle{sup 1}, we compute the internal structure constants (tidal Love number) for the Newtonian and general relativistic contribution to the apsidal motion as log k {sub 2} = 1.975 0.017 and log k {sub 2} = 3.412 0.018, respectively. We find the relativistic contribution to the apsidal motion to be small, <4%. We find that the prediction of log k {sub 2,theo} = 2.005 0.025 of the Granada models fully agrees with our observed log k {sub 2}.

  20. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  1. Solid-state track recorder dosimetry device to measure absolute reaction rates and neutron fluence as a function of time

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gold, Raymond; Roberts, James H.

    1989-01-01

    A solid state track recording type dosimeter is disclosed to measure the time dependence of the absolute fission rates of nuclides or neutron fluence over a period of time. In a primary species an inner recording drum is rotatably contained within an exterior housing drum that defines a series of collimating slit apertures overlying windows defined in the stationary drum through which radiation can enter. Film type solid state track recorders are positioned circumferentially about the surface of the internal recording drum to record such radiation or its secondary products during relative rotation of the two elements. In another species both the recording element and the aperture element assume the configuration of adjacent disks. Based on slit size of apertures and relative rotational velocity of the inner drum, radiation parameters within a test area may be measured as a function of time and spectra deduced therefrom.

  2. Radio frequency cavity analysis, measurement, and calibration of absolute Dee voltage for K-500 superconducting cyclotron at VECC, Kolkata

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Som, Sumit; Seth, Sudeshna; Mandal, Aditya; Paul, Saikat; Duttagupta, Anjan

    2013-02-15

    Variable Energy Cyclotron Centre has commissioned a K-500 superconducting cyclotron for various types of nuclear physics experiments. The 3-phase radio-frequency system of superconducting cyclotron has been developed in the frequency range 9-27 MHz with amplitude and phase stability of 100 ppm and {+-}0.2{sup 0}, respectively. The analysis of the RF cavity has been carried out using 3D Computer Simulation Technology (CST) Microwave Studio code and various RF parameters and accelerating voltages ('Dee' voltage) are calculated from simulation. During the RF system commissioning, measurement of different RF parameters has been done and absolute Dee voltage has been calibrated using a CdTe X-ray detector along with its accessories and known X-ray source. The present paper discusses about the measured data and the simulation result.

  3. COMPARISON OF VENTED AND ABSOLUTE PRESSURE TRANSDUCERS FOR WATER-LEVEL MONITORING IN HANFORD SITE CENTRAL PLATEAU WELLS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MCDONALD JP

    2011-09-08

    Automated water-level data collected using vented pressure transducers deployed in Hanford Site Central Plateau wells commonly display more variability than manual tape measurements in response to barometric pressure fluctuations. To explain this difference, it was hypothesized that vented pressure transducers installed in some wells are subject to barometric pressure effects that reduce water-level measurement accuracy. Vented pressure transducers use a vent tube, which is open to the atmosphere at land surface, to supply air pressure to the transducer housing for barometric compensation so the transducer measurements will represent only the water pressure. When using vented transducers, the assumption is made that the air pressure between land surface and the well bore is in equilibrium. By comparison, absolute pressure transducers directly measure the air pressure within the wellbore. Barometric compensation is achieved by subtracting the well bore air pressure measurement from the total pressure measured by a second transducer submerged in the water. Thus, no assumption of air pressure equilibrium is needed. In this study, water-level measurements were collected from the same Central Plateau wells using both vented and absolute pressure transducers to evaluate the different methods of barometric compensation. Manual tape measurements were also collected to evaluate the transducers. Measurements collected during this study demonstrated that the vented pressure transducers over-responded to barometric pressure fluctuations due to a pressure disequilibrium between the air within the wellbores and the atmosphere at land surface. The disequilibrium is thought to be caused by the relatively long time required for barometric pressure changes to equilibrate between land surface and the deep vadose zone and may be exacerbated by the restriction of air flow between the well bore and the atmosphere due to the presence of sample pump landing plates and well caps. The

  4. New Jersey Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential and

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Commercial Consumers by Local Distribution and Mark 6.55 6.86 8.24 8.99 9.49 10.78 1989-2016 Commercial Average Price 7.76 7.66 7.50 6.80 7.15 7.72

  5. New York Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential and

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Commercial Consumers by Local Distribution and Market 10.31 9.45 9.65 9.90 10.91 14.77 1989-2016 Commercial Average Price 6.59 6.58 6.40 6.23 5.99 5.76

  6. Ohio Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential and Commercial

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Consumers by Local Distribution and Marketers 6.48 6.44 7.16 8.01 11.73 19.29 1989-2016 Commercial Average Price 5.32 5.30 5.31 5.38 6.17 7.03

  7. Fact #851 December 15, 2014 The Average Number of Gears used...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Average Number of Gears in New Cars and Light Trucks Model Year Gears 1980 3.5 1981 3.5 1982 3.6 1983 3.7 1984 3.7 1985 3.8 1986 3.8 1987 3.9 1988 3.9 1989 3.9 1990 4.0 1991 4.0 ...

  8. Impacts of different data averaging times on statistical analysis of distributed domestic photovoltaic systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widen, Joakim; Waeckelgaard, Ewa; Paatero, Jukka; Lund, Peter

    2010-03-15

    The trend of increasing application of distributed generation with solar photovoltaics (PV-DG) suggests that a widespread integration in existing low-voltage (LV) grids is possible in the future. With massive integration in LV grids, a major concern is the possible negative impacts of excess power injection from on-site generation. For power-flow simulations of such grid impacts, an important consideration is the time resolution of demand and generation data. This paper investigates the impact of time averaging on high-resolution data series of domestic electricity demand and PV-DG output and on voltages in a simulated LV grid. Effects of 10-minutely and hourly averaging on descriptive statistics and duration curves were determined. Although time averaging has a considerable impact on statistical properties of the demand in individual households, the impact is smaller on aggregate demand, already smoothed from random coincidence, and on PV-DG output. Consequently, the statistical distribution of simulated grid voltages was also robust against time averaging. The overall judgement is that statistical investigation of voltage variations in the presence of PV-DG does not require higher resolution than hourly. (author)

  9. Development of a high average current polarized electron source with long cathode operational lifetime

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    C. K. Sinclair; P. A. Adderley; B. M. Dunham; J. C. Hansknecht; P. Hartmann; M. Poelker; J. S. Price; P. M. Rutt; W. J. Schneider; M. Steigerwald

    2007-02-01

    Substantially more than half of the electromagnetic nuclear physics experiments conducted at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility of the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Laboratory) require highly polarized electron beams, often at high average current. Spin-polarized electrons are produced by photoemission from various GaAs-based semiconductor photocathodes, using circularly polarized laser light with photon energy slightly larger than the semiconductor band gap. The photocathodes are prepared by activation of the clean semiconductor surface to negative electron affinity using cesium and oxidation. Historically, in many laboratories worldwide, these photocathodes have had short operational lifetimes at high average current, and have often deteriorated fairly quickly in ultrahigh vacuum even without electron beam delivery. At Jefferson Lab, we have developed a polarized electron source in which the photocathodes degrade exceptionally slowly without electron emission, and in which ion back bombardment is the predominant mechanism limiting the operational lifetime of the cathodes during electron emission. We have reproducibly obtained cathode 1/e dark lifetimes over two years, and 1/e charge density and charge lifetimes during electron beam delivery of over 2?105???C/cm2 and 200 C, respectively. This source is able to support uninterrupted high average current polarized beam delivery to three experimental halls simultaneously for many months at a time. Many of the techniques we report here are directly applicable to the development of GaAs photoemission electron guns to deliver high average current, high brightness unpolarized beams.

  10. A Code to Produce Cell Averaged Cross Sections for Fast Critical Assemblies and Fast Power Reactors.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1987-05-14

    Version 00 SLAROM solves the neutron integral transport equations to determine the flux distribution and spectra in a fast reactor lattice and calculates cell averaged effective cross sections. The code uses multigroup data of the type in DLC-111/JFS that use Bondarenko factors for resonance effects.

  11. District of Columbia Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    and Commercial Consumers by Local Distributio 9.96 9.53 10.72 10.55 12.56 15.35 1989-2016 Commercial Average Price 9.50 9.30 10.21 10.24 10.24 11.31

  12. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

    2010-02-21

    The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to

  13. Averaged Description of Flow (Steady and Transient) and Nonreactive Solute Transport in Random Porous Media

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schvidler, M.; Karasaki, K.

    2011-06-15

    In previous papers (Shvidler and Karasaki, 1999, 2001, 2005, and 2008) we presented and analyzed an approach for finding the general forms of exactly averaged equations of flow and transport in porous media. We studied systems of basic equations for steady flow with sources in unbounded domains with stochastically homogeneous conductivity fields. A brief analysis of exactly averaged equations of nonsteady flow and nonreactive solute transport was also presented. At the core of this approach is the existence of appropriate random Green's functions. For example, we showed that in the case of a 3-dimensional unbounded domain the existence of appropriate random Green's functions is sufficient for finding the exact nonlocal averaged equations for flow velocity using the operator with a unique kernel-vector. Examination of random fields with global symmetry (isotropy, transversal isotropy and orthotropy) makes it possible to describe significantly different types of averaged equations with nonlocal unique operators. It is evident that the existence of random Green's functions for physical linear processes is equivalent to assuming the existence of some linear random operators for appropriate stochastic equations. If we restricted ourselves to this assumption only, as we have done in this paper, we can study the processes in any dimensional bounded or unbounded fields and in addition, cases in which the random fields of conductivity and porosity are stochastically nonhomogeneous, nonglobally symmetrical, etc.. It is clear that examining more general cases involves significant difficulty and constricts the analysis of structural types for the processes being studied. Nevertheless, we show that we obtain the essential information regarding averaged equations for steady and transient flow, as well as for solute transport.

  14. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  15. Gatling gun: high average polarized current injector for eRHIC

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Litvinenko, V.N.

    2010-01-01

    This idea was originally developed in 2001 for, at that time, an ERL-based (and later recirculating-ring) electron-ion collider at JLab. Naturally the same idea is applicable for any gun requiring current exceeding capability of a single cathode. ERL-based eRHIC is one of such cases. This note related to eRHIC was prepared at Duke University in February 2003. In many case photo-injectors can have a limited average current - it is especially true about polarized photo-guns. It is know that e-RHIC requires average polarized electron current well above currently demonstrated by photo-injectors - hence combining currents from multiple guns is can be useful option for eRHIC.

  16. HIGH AVERAGE CURRENT LOW EMITTANCE BEAM EMPLOYING CW NORMAL CONDUCTING GUN.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    CHANG,X.; BEN-ZVI, I.; KEWISCH, J.; PAI, C.

    2007-06-25

    CW normal conducting guns usually do not achieve very high field gradient and waste much RF power at high field gradient compared to superconducting cavities. But they have less trapped modes and wakefields compared to the superconducting cavities due to their low Q. The external bucking coil can also be applied very close to the cathode to improve the beam quality. By using a low frequency gun with a recessed cathode and a carefully designed beam line we can get a high average current and a high quality beam with acceptable RF power loss on the cavity wall. This paper shows that the CW normal conducting gun can be a backup solution for those projects which need high peak and average current, low emittance electron beams such as the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) e-cooling project and Energy Recovery Linac (Em) project.

  17. "Table A25. Average Prices of Selected Purchased Energy Sources by Census"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    . Average Prices of Selected Purchased Energy Sources by Census" " Region, Industry Group, and Selected Industries, 1991: Part 1" " (Estimates in Dollars per Physical Unit)" ,,,,," " " "," "," ","Residual","Distillate","Natural Gas(c)"," "," ","RSE" "SIC"," ","Electricity","Fuel Oil","Fuel

  18. "Table A47. Average Prices of Purchased Electricity, Steam, and Natural Gas"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    7. Average Prices of Purchased Electricity, Steam, and Natural Gas" " by Type of Supplier, Census Region, Industry Group, and Selected Industries," 1991 " (Estimates in Dollars per Physical Units)" ,," Electricity",," Steam",," Natural Gas" ,," (million kWh)",," (Billion BTU)",," (1000 cu ft)" ,"

  19. "Table E8.2. Average Prices of Selected Purchased Energy Sources, 1998;"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2. Average Prices of Selected Purchased Energy Sources, 1998;" " Level: National and Regional Data; " " Row: Values of Shipments and Employment Sizes;" " Column: Energy Sources;" " Unit: U.S. Dollars per Million Btu." " ",," "," ",," "," ","RSE" "Economic",,"Residual","Distillate",,"LPG and",,"Row"

  20. Coupling of an average-atom model with a collisional-radiative equilibrium model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Faussurier, G. Blancard, C.; Cossé, P.

    2014-11-15

    We present a method to combine a collisional-radiative equilibrium model and an average-atom model to calculate bound and free electron wavefunctions in hot dense plasmas by taking into account screening. This approach allows us to calculate electrical resistivity and thermal conductivity as well as pressure in non local thermodynamic equilibrium plasmas. Illustrations of the method are presented for dilute titanium plasma.

  1. Table 7.1 Average Prices of Purchased Energy Sources, 2002

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Average Prices of Purchased Energy Sources, 2002;" " Level: National and Regional Data; " " Row: NAICS Codes;" " Column: All Energy Sources Collected;" " Unit: U.S. Dollars per Physical Units." ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Selected Wood and Other Biomass Components" ,,,,,,"Coal Components",,,"Coke",,,"Electricity Components",,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Natural Gas Components",,,"Steam Components"

  2. Table 7.2 Average Prices of Purchased Energy Sources, 2002

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2 Average Prices of Purchased Energy Sources, 2002;" " Level: National and Regional Data; " " Row: NAICS Codes; " " Column: All Energy Sources Collected;" " Unit: U.S. Dollars per Million Btu." ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Selected Wood and Other Biomass Components" ,,,,,,"Coal Components",,,"Coke",,,"Electricity Components",,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Natural Gas Components",,,"Steam Components"

  3. Table 7.2 Average Prices of Purchased Energy Sources, 2010;

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Table 7.2 Average Prices of Purchased Energy Sources, 2010; Level: National and Regional Data; Row: NAICS Codes; Column: All Energy Sources Collected; Unit: U.S. Dollars per Million Btu. Selected Wood and Other Biomass Components Coal Components Coke Electricity Components Natural Gas Components Steam Components Total Wood Residues Bituminous Electricity Diesel Fuel Motor Natural Gas Steam and Wood-Related and Electricity from Sources and Gasoline Pulping Liquor Natural Gas from Sources Steam

  4. Table N8.2. Average Prices of Purchased Energy Sources, 1998

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2. Average Prices of Purchased Energy Sources, 1998;" " Level: National and Regional Data; " " Row: NAICS Codes; Column: All Energy Sources Collected;" " Unit: U.S. Dollars per Million Btu." ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"Selected","Wood and Other","Biomass","Components" ,,,,,,,"Coal Components",,,"Coke",,"Electricity","Components",,,,,,,,,,,,,"Natural

  5. Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Representative Average Unit Costs of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Representative Average Unit Costs of Energy, is a notice issued by the Department of Energy. Though it is not intended or expected, should any discrepancy occur between the document posted here and the document published in the Federal Register, the Federal Register publication controls. This document is being made available through the Internet solely as a means to facilitate the public's access to this document."

  6. Picosecond Pulse Recirculation for High Average Brightness Thomson Scattering-based Gamma-ray Sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Semenov, V. A.

    2009-06-12

    Pulse recirculation has been successfully demonstrated with the interaction laser system of LLNL's Thomson-Radiated Extreme X-ray (T-REX) source. The recirculation increased twenty-eight times the intensity of the light coming out of the laser system, demonstrating the capability of increasing the gamma-ray flux emitted by T-REX. The technical approach demonstrated could conceivably increase the average gamma-ray flux output by up to a hundred times.

  7. Summary Notes from 3 October 2007 Generic Technical Issue Discussion on Concentration Averaging

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    3 October 2007 Generic Technical Issue Discussion on Concentration Averaging Attendees: Representatives from Department of Energy-Headquarters (DOE-HQ) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) met at the DOE offices in Germantown, Maryland on 3 October 2007. Representatives from Department of Energy-Savannah River (DOE-SR) and the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC) participated in the meeting via a teleconference link. Discussion: DOE believes that

  8. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  9. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  10. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  11. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  12. Calculation of variable-base degree-days and degree-nights from monthly average temperatures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sonderegger, R.; Cleary, P.; Dickinson, B.

    1985-01-01

    The Computerized Instrumented Residential Audit (CIRA), a micro-computer building energy analysis program developed at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, uses a monthly variable-base degree-day method to calculate heating and cooling loads. The method's unique feature is its ability to model thermostat setbacks and storage of solar gain. The program accomplishes this by dividing each day into two periods, ''average day'' (8 a.m. to 8 p.m.) and ''average night'' (8 p.m. to 8 a.m.), with different base temperatures. For each mode (heating or cooling) and for each period (day or night), the program reconstructs degree-days as a function of average monthly day or night temperature using three empirical coefficients specific to the location. A comparison is made between degree-days computed from hourly weather tapes and those predicted using this method. The root mean square error between predicted and actual degree days is typically between 3 and 12 degree-days per month. Tables of the coefficients are given for over 150 locations in the United States, computed from hourly dry-bulb temperatures on TRY and TMY tapes. Seasonal predictions of heating and cooling energy budgets using this method show good correspondence to the DOE-2 hourly simulation method.

  13. Coherent radar estimates of average high-latitude ionospheric Joule heating

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kosch, M.J.; Nielsen, E.

    1995-07-01

    The Scandinavian Twin Auroral Radar Experiment (STARE) and Sweden and Britain Radar Experiment (SABRE) bistatic coherent radar systems have been employed to estimate the spatial and temporal variation of the ionospheric Joule heating in the combined geographic latitude range 63.8 deg - 72.6 deg (corrected geomagnetic latitude 61.5 deg - 69.3 deg) over Scandinavia. The 173 days of good observations with all four radars have been analyzed during the period 1982 to 1986 to estimate the average ionospheric electric field versus time and latitude. The AE dependent empirical model of ionospheric Pedersen conductivity of Spiro et al. (1982) has been used to calculate the Joule heating. The latitudinal and diurnal variation of Joule heating as well as the estimated mean hemispherical heating of 1.7 x 10(exp 11) W are in good agreement with earlier results. Average Joule heating was found to vary linearly with the AE, AU, and AL indices and as a second-order power law with Kp. The average Joule heating was also examined as a function of the direction and magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field. It has been shown for the first time that the ionospheric electric field magnitude as well as the Joule heating increase with increasingly negative (southward) Bz.

  14. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  15. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  16. Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Intharathirat, Rotchana; Abdul Salam, P.; Kumar, S.; Untong, Akarapong

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.

  17. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  18. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  19. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  20. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  1. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  2. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  3. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  4. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  5. Absolute cavity pyrgeometer

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Reda, Ibrahim

    2013-10-29

    Implementations of the present disclosure involve an apparatus and method to measure the long-wave irradiance of the atmosphere or long-wave source. The apparatus may involve a thermopile, a concentrator and temperature controller. The incoming long-wave irradiance may be reflected from the concentrator to a thermopile receiver located at the bottom of the concentrator to receive the reflected long-wave irradiance. In addition, the thermopile may be thermally connected to a temperature controller to control the device temperature. Through use of the apparatus, the long-wave irradiance of the atmosphere may be calculated from several measurements provided by the apparatus. In addition, the apparatus may provide an international standard of pyrgeometers' calibration that is traceable back to the International System of Units (SI) rather than to a blackbody atmospheric simulator.

  6. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on

  7. ABSOLUTE FLUX CALIBRATION OF THE IRAC INSTRUMENT ON THE SPITZER SPACE TELESCOPE USING HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE FLUX STANDARDS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bohlin, R. C.; Gordon, K. D.; Deustua, S.; Ferguson, H. C.; Flanagan, K.; Kalirai, J.; Meixner, M.; Rieke, G. H.; Engelbracht, C.; Su, K. Y. L.; Ardila, D.; Tremblay, P.-E.

    2011-05-15

    The absolute flux calibration of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will be based on a set of stars observed by the Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescopes. In order to cross-calibrate the two facilities, several A, G, and white dwarf stars are observed with both Spitzer and Hubble and are the prototypes for a set of JWST calibration standards. The flux calibration constants for the four Spitzer IRAC bands 1-4 are derived from these stars and are 2.3%, 1.9%, 2.0%, and 0.5% lower than the official cold-mission IRAC calibration of Reach et al., i.e., in agreement within their estimated errors of {approx}2%. The causes of these differences lie primarily in the IRAC data reduction and secondarily in the spectral energy distributions of our standard stars. The independent IRAC 8 {mu}m band-4 fluxes of Rieke et al. are about 1.5% {+-} 2% higher than those of Reach et al. and are also in agreement with our 8 {mu}m result.

  8. Progress in obtaining an absolute calibration of a total deuterium-tritium neutron yield diagnostic based on copper activation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ruiz, C. L.; Chandler, G. A.; Fehl, D. L.; Hahn, K. D.; Leeper, R. J.; McWatters, B. R.; Smelser, R. M.; Snow, C. S.; Torres, J. A. [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185 (United States); Cooper, G. W.; Nelson, A. J. [Chemical and Nuclear Engineering Department, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87131 (United States)

    2012-10-15

    The 350-keV Cockroft-Walton accelerator at Sandia National laboratory's Ion Beam facility is being used to calibrate absolutely a total DT neutron yield diagnostic based on the {sup 63}Cu(n,2n){sup 62}Cu({beta}+) reaction. These investigations have led to first-order uncertainties approaching 5% or better. The experiments employ the associated-particle technique. Deuterons at 175 keV impinge a 2.6 {mu}m thick erbium tritide target producing 14.1 MeV neutrons from the T(d,n){sup 4}He reaction. The alpha particles emitted are measured at two angles relative to the beam direction and used to infer the neutron flux on a copper sample. The induced {sup 62}Cu activity is then measured and related to the neutron flux. This method is known as the F-factor technique. Description of the associated-particle method, copper sample geometries employed, and the present estimates of the uncertainties to the F-factor obtained are given.

  9. DAQ Software Contributions, Absolute Scale Energy Calibration and Background Evaluation for the NOvA Experiment at Fermilab

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Flumerfelt, Eric Lewis

    2015-08-01

    The NOvA (NuMI Off-axis ve [nu_e] Appearance) Experiment is a long-baseline accelerator neutrino experiment currently in its second year of operations. NOvA uses the Neutrinos from the Main Injector (NuMI) beam at Fermilab, and there are two main off-axis detectors: a Near Detector at Fermilab and a Far Detector 810 km away at Ash River, MN. The work reported herein is in support of the NOvA Experiment, through contributions to the development of data acquisition software, providing an accurate, absolute-scale energy calibration for electromagnetic showers in NOvA detector elements, crucial to the primary electron neutrino search, and through an initial evaluation of the cosmic background rate in the NOvA Far Detector, which is situated on the surface without significant overburden. Additional support work for the NOvA Experiment is also detailed, including DAQ Server Administration duties and a study of NOvA’s sensitivity to neutrino oscillations into a “sterile” state.

  10. Results of Second Outdoor Comparison Between Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer (ACP) and Infrared Integrating Sphere (IRIS) Radiometer at PMOD (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reda, I.; Grobner, J.; Wacker, S.

    2014-01-01

    The Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer (ACP) and InfraRed Integrating Sphere radiometer (IRIS) are developed to establish a world reference for calibrating pyrgeometers with traceability to SI units. The two radiometers are un-windowed with negligible spectral dependence, and traceable to SI units through the temperature scale (ITS-90). The second outdoor comparison between the two designs was held from September 30 to October 11, 2013 at the Physikalisch-Metorologisches Observatorium Davos (PMOD). The difference between the irradiance measured by ACP and that of the IRIS was within 1 W/m2 (3 IRISs: PMOD + Australia + Germany). From the first and second comparisons, a difference of 4-6 W/m2 was observed between the irradiance measured by ACP&IRIS and that of the interim World Infrared Standard Group (WISG). This presentation includes results from the first and second comparison in an effort to establish the world reference for pyrgeometer calibrations, a key deliverable for the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and the DOE-ASR.

  11. Absolute Time-Resolved Emission of Non-LTE L-Shell Spectra from Ti-Doped Aerogels

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Back,C.; Feldman, U.; Weaver, J.; Seely, J.; Constantin, C.; Holland, G.; Lee, R.; Chung, H.; Scott, H.

    2006-01-01

    Outstanding discrepancies between data and calculations of laser-produced plasmas in recombination have been observed since the 1980s. Although improvements in hydrodynamic modeling may reduce the discrepancies, there are indications that non-LTE atomic kinetics may be the dominant cause. Experiments to investigate non-LTE effects were recently performed at the NIKE KrF laser on low-density Ti-doped aerogels. The laser irradiated a 2 mm diameter, cylindrical sample of various lengths with a 4-ns square pulse to create a volumetrically heated plasma. Ti L-shell spectra spanning a range of 0.47-3 keV were obtained with a transmission grating coupled to Si photodiodes. The diagnostic can be configured to provide 1-dimensional spatial resolution at a single photon energy, or 18 discrete energies with a resolving power, {gamma}/{delta}{gamma} of 3-20. The data are examined and compared to calculations to develop absolute emission measurements that can provide new tests of the non-LTE physics.

  12. Causal univariate spatial-temporal autoregressive moving averages (STARMA) modelling of target information to generate tasking of a world-wide sensor system. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, K.A.

    1992-03-01

    The Department of Defense employs a resource limited world-wide sensor system to detect certain events of interest. The purpose of this research was to establish a methodology using a univariate causal STARMA model for forecasting the relative probability of an event occurring in a geographical location during a time block of the day. These relative probabilities are used as input for a tasking model that assigns the scarce sensor resources so as to optimize the detection of these events. The STARMA model is appropriate for forecasting the relative probabilities because a definite temporal relationship and a definite spatial relationship exists in the data bases. The model created is a univariate causal STARMA model in that it only produces forecasts for one of the twenty-two given geographical regions. A causal univariate STARMA model was created to provide forecasts for one event type occurring at region 11 and appears to provide good forecasts. The model is both correlative and causal. The model is correlative in that it uses temporal and spatial correlations to develop the forecasts. The model is also causal in that it employs predictions from an analytical model.

  13. Effect of vitrification temperature upon the solar average absorptance properties of Pyromark Series 2500 black paint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, C.; Mahoney, A.R.

    1986-06-01

    A significant drop in production efficiency has occurred over time at the Solar One facility at Barstow, California, primarily as a result of the degradation of the Pyromark Series 2500 black paint used as the absorptive coating on the receiver panels. As part of the investigation of the problem, the solar-averaged adsorptance properties of the paint were determined as a function of vitrification temperature, since it is known that a significant amount of the panel surface area at Solar One was vitrified at temperatures below those recommended by the paint manufacturer (540/sup 0/C, 1000/sup 0/F). Painted samples initially vitrified at 230/sup 0/C (450/sup 0/F), 315/sup 0/C (600/sup 0/F), 371/sup 0/C (700/sup 0/F), and 480/sup 0/C (900/sup 0/F) exhibited significantly lower solar-averaged absorptance values (0.02 absorptance units) compared to samples vitrified at 540/sup 0/C (1000/sup 0/F). Thus, Solar One began its service life below optimal levels. After 140 h of thermal aging at 370/sup 0/C (700/sup 0/F) and 540/sup 0/C (1000/sup 0/F), all samples regardless of their initial vitrification temperatures, attained the same solar-averaged absorptance value (..cap alpha../sub s/ = 0.973). Therefore, both the long-term low-temperature vitrification and the short-term high-temperature vitrification can be used to obtain optimal or near-optimal absorptance of solar flux. Futher thermal aging of vitrified samples did not result in paint degradation, clearly indicating that high solar flux is required to produce this phenomenon. The panels at Solar One never achieved optimal absorptance because their exposure to high solar flux negated the effect of long-term low-temperature vitrification during operation. On future central receiver projects, every effort should be made to properly vitrify the Pyromark coating before its exposure to high flux conditions.

  14. Specification of optical components for a high average-power laser environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Taylor, J.R.; Chow, R.; Rinmdahl, K.A.; Willis, J.B.; Wong, J.N.

    1997-06-25

    Optical component specifications for the high-average-power lasers and transport system used in the Atomic Vapor Laser Isotope Separation (AVLIS) plant must address demanding system performance requirements. The need for high performance optics has to be balanced against the practical desire to reduce the supply risks of cost and schedule. This is addressed in optical system design, careful planning with the optical industry, demonstration of plant quality parts, qualification of optical suppliers and processes, comprehensive procedures for evaluation and test, and a plan for corrective action.

  15. Properties of a new average power Nd-doped phosphate laser glass

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Payne, S.A.; Marshall, C.D.; Bayramian, A.J.; Wilke, G.D.; Hayden, J.S.

    1995-03-09

    The Nd-doped phosphate laser glass described herein can withstand 2.3 times greater thermal loading without fracture, compared to APG-1 (commercially-available average-power glass from Schott Glass Technologies). The enhanced thermal loading capability is established on the basis of the intrinsic thermomechanical properties and by direct thermally-induced fracture experiments using Ar-ion laser heating of the samples. This Nd-doped phosphate glass (referred to as APG-t) is found to be characterized by a 29% lower gain cross section and a 25% longer low-concentration emission lifetime.

  16. Laser properties of an improved average-power Nd-doped phosphate glass

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Payne, S.A.; Marshall, C.D.; Bayramian, A.J.

    1995-03-15

    The Nd-doped phosphate laser glass described herein can withstand 2.3 times greater thermal loading without fracture, compared to APG-1 (commercially-available average-power glass from Schott Glass Technologies). The enhanced thermal loading capability is established on the basis of the intrinsic thermomechanical properties (expansion, conduction, fracture toughness, and Young`s modulus), and by direct thermally-induced fracture experiments using Ar-ion laser heating of the samples. This Nd-doped phosphate glass (referred to as APG-t) is found to be characterized by a 29% lower gain cross section and a 25% longer low-concentration emission lifetime.

  17. "Table A25 Average Prices of Selected Purchased Energy Sources by Census"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Average Prices of Selected Purchased Energy Sources by Census" " Region, Industry Group, and Selected Industries, 1991: Part 2" " (Estimates in Dollars per Million Btu)" ,,,,,,,,"RSE" "SIC"," "," ","Residual","Distillate"," "," "," ","Row" "Code(a)","Industry Groups and Industry","Electricity","Fuel Oil","Fuel

  18. "Table E8.1. Average Prices of Selected Purchased Energy Sources, 1998;"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    1. Average Prices of Selected Purchased Energy Sources, 1998;" " Level: National and Regional Data; " " Row: Values of Shipments and Employment Sizes;" " Column: Energy Sources;" " Unit: U.S. Dollars per Physical Units." " ",," "," ",," "," " ,,"Residual","Distillate",,"LPG and",,"RSE" "Economic","Electricity","Fuel Oil","Fuel

  19. Table 7.5 Average Prices of Selected Purchased Energy Sources, 2002

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    5 Average Prices of Selected Purchased Energy Sources, 2002;" " Level: National and Regional Data; " " Row: Values of Shipments and Employment Sizes;" " Column: Energy Sources;" " Unit: U.S. Dollars per Million Btu." " ",," "," ",," "," ","RSE" "Economic",,"Residual","Distillate","Natural ","LPG and",,"Row"

  20. High Average Power Laser Gain Medium With Low Optical Distortion Using A Transverse Flowing Liquid Host

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Comaskey, Brian J.; Ault, Earl R.; Kuklo, Thomas C.

    2005-07-05

    A high average power, low optical distortion laser gain media is based on a flowing liquid media. A diode laser pumping device with tailored irradiance excites the laser active atom, ion or molecule within the liquid media. A laser active component of the liquid media exhibits energy storage times longer than or comparable to the thermal optical response time of the liquid. A circulation system that provides a closed loop for mixing and circulating the lasing liquid into and out of the optical cavity includes a pump, a diffuser, and a heat exchanger. A liquid flow gain cell includes flow straighteners and flow channel compression.