National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for average absolute forecast

  1. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  2. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN 2011, in final form 26 May 2012) ABSTRACT Probabilistic forecasts of wind vectors are becoming critical with univariate quantities, statistical approaches to wind vector forecasting must be based on bivariate

  3. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc in the context of wind power, where under- forecasting and overforecasting carry different financial penal- ties, calibrated and sharp probabilistic forecasts can help to make wind power a more financially competitive alter

  4. Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction LE proposes an effective bias correction technique for wind direction forecasts from numerical weather forecasts. These techniques are applied to 48-h forecasts of surface wind direction over the Pacific

  5. FOCI RESEARCH BENEFITS FISHERIES MANAGEMENT 1993 Recruitment Forecast -Average

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) advises the North Pacific Fisheries Management Council using a "stock data but addresses the autocorrelation of recruitment. In addition, it directly predicts recruitment to average 1991 year class, and a strong 1992 year class. In 1993 the transfer function model predicted

  6. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  7. 2004 Pollock Year-Class Prediction: Average Recruitment This forecast is based on five data sources: three physical properties and two biological data sets.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 2004 Pollock Year-Class Prediction: Average Recruitment DATA This forecast is based on five data sources: three physical properties and two biological data sets. The sources are: 1) Observed 2004 Kodiak precipitation totals (inches) from hourly observations. Data for 2004 were obtained from the NOAA National

  8. Variable Average Absolute Percent Differences

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979Coal Consumers inYear JanSalesa.E. Great

  9. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  10. Absolute nuclear material assay

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prasad, Manoj K. (Pleasanton, CA); Snyderman, Neal J. (Berkeley, CA); Rowland, Mark S. (Alamo, CA)

    2012-05-15

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  11. Absolute nuclear material assay

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prasad, Manoj K. (Pleasanton, CA); Snyderman, Neal J. (Berkeley, CA); Rowland, Mark S. (Alamo, CA)

    2010-07-13

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  12. Coherent Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Julien M. E. Fraïsse; Daniel Braun

    2015-04-13

    We investigate in detail a recently introduced "coherent averaging scheme" in terms of its usefulness for achieving Heisenberg limited sensitivity in the measurement of different parameters. In the scheme, $N$ quantum probes in a product state interact with a quantum bus. Instead of measuring the probes directly and then averaging as in classical averaging, one measures the quantum bus or the entire system and tries to estimate the parameters from these measurement results. Combining analytical results from perturbation theory and an exactly solvable dephasing model with numerical simulations, we draw a detailed picture of the scaling of the best achievable sensitivity with $N$, the dependence on the initial state, the interaction strength, the part of the system measured, and the parameter under investigation.

  13. Computing Solar Absolute Fluxes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carlos Allende Prieto

    2007-09-14

    Computed color indices and spectral shapes for individual stars are routinely compared with observations for essentially all spectral types, but absolute fluxes are rarely tested. We can confront observed irradiances with the predictions from model atmospheres for a few stars with accurate angular diameter measurements, notably the Sun. Previous calculations have been hampered by inconsistencies and the use of outdated atomic data and abundances. I provide here a progress report on our current efforts to compute absolute fluxes for solar model photospheres. Uncertainties in the solar composition constitute a significant source of error in computing solar radiative fluxes.

  14. Forecasting wind speed financial return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

  15. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  16. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  17. Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

    will yield a biased forecast but will continue to have the least variance. On the other hand a forecast based on the sub-sample {yTi , yTi+1, . . . , yT }, where Ti > 1 is likely to have a lower bias but could be inefficient due to a higher variance... approach considered in Pesaran and Timmermann (2007) is to use different sub-windows to forecast and then average the outcomes, either by means of cross-validated weights or by simply using equal weights. To this end consider the sample {yTi , yTi+1...

  18. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16

    and encouragement. I am very grateful to Lucille and Michael Hobbs for their friendship, understanding and financial support. Finally, thank you to Tom Decker, Pat Jackson and Brian Zellar for all their contributions and hard work on this project... below: 1. Na?ve 2. Linear Regression 3. Moving Average 4. Exponential 5. Double exponential The na?ve forecasting method assumes that more recent data values are the best predictors of future values. The model is ? t+1 = Y t . Where ? t...

  19. Measurement of the absolute \

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aunion, Jose Luis Alcaraz; /Barcelona, IFAE

    2010-07-01

    This thesis presents the measurement of the charged current quasi-elastic (CCQE) neutrino-nucleon cross section at neutrino energies around 1 GeV. This measurement has two main physical motivations. On one hand, the neutrino-nucleon interactions at few GeV is a region where existing old data are sparse and with low statistics. The current measurement populates low energy regions with higher statistics and precision than previous experiments. On the other hand, the CCQE interaction is the most useful interaction in neutrino oscillation experiments. The CCQE channel is used to measure the initial and final neutrino fluxes in order to determine the neutrino fraction that disappeared. The neutrino oscillation experiments work at low neutrino energies, so precise measurement of CCQE interactions are essential for flux measurements. The main goal of this thesis is to measure the CCQE absolute neutrino cross section from the SciBooNE data. The SciBar Booster Neutrino Experiment (SciBooNE) is a neutrino and anti-neutrino scattering off experiment. The neutrino energy spectrum works at energies around 1 GeV. SciBooNE was running from June 8th 2007 to August 18th 2008. In that period, the experiment collected a total of 2.65 x 10{sup 20} protons on target (POT). This thesis has used full data collection in neutrino mode 0.99 x 10{sup 20} POT. A CCQE selection cut has been performed, achieving around 70% pure CCQE sample. A fit method has been exclusively developed to determine the absolute CCQE cross section, presenting results in a neutrino energy range from 0.2 to 2 GeV. The results are compatible with the NEUT predictions. The SciBooNE measurement has been compared with both Carbon (MiniBoonE) and deuterium (ANL and BNL) target experiments, showing a good agreement in both cases.

  20. Absolute neutrino mass measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wolf, Joachim [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), IEKP, Postfach 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2011-10-06

    The neutrino mass plays an important role in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology. In recent years the detection of neutrino flavour oscillations proved that neutrinos carry mass. However, oscillation experiments are only sensitive to the mass-squared difference of the mass eigenvalues. In contrast to cosmological observations and neutrino-less double beta decay (0v2{beta}) searches, single {beta}-decay experiments provide a direct, model-independent way to determine the absolute neutrino mass by measuring the energy spectrum of decay electrons at the endpoint region with high accuracy.Currently the best kinematic upper limits on the neutrino mass of 2.2eV have been set by two experiments in Mainz and Troitsk, using tritium as beta emitter. The next generation tritium {beta}-experiment KATRIN is currently under construction in Karlsruhe/Germany by an international collaboration. KATRIN intends to improve the sensitivity by one order of magnitude to 0.2eV. The investigation of a second isotope ({sup 137}Rh) is being pursued by the international MARE collaboration using micro-calorimeters to measure the beta spectrum. The technology needed to reach 0.2eV sensitivity is still in the R and D phase. This paper reviews the present status of neutrino-mass measurements with cosmological data, 0v2{beta} decay and single {beta}-decay.

  1. GENETIC ALGORITHM FORECASTING FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS PRODUCTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Havlicek, Joebob

    available economic indicators such as Disposable Personal Income and New Housing Starts as independent exhibiting maximal fitness achieved RMS forecast errors below the the average two-week sales figure. 1 (Holland, 1975), (Packard, 1990), (Koza, 1992), (Bäck, et al., 1997), (Mitchell, 1998). For example, Meyer

  2. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  3. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  4. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National...

  5. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price turbines. This second effect is the primary use of the fuel price forecast for the Council's Fifth Power

  6. Weather Forecasting Spring 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    ATMS 350 Weather Forecasting Spring 2014 Professor : Dr. Chris Hennon Office : RRO 236C Phone : 232 of atmospheric physics and the ability to include this understanding into modern numerical weather prediction agencies, forecast tools, numerical weather prediction models, model output statistics, ensemble

  7. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ....................................................................................................1-16 Energy Consumption Data...............................................1-15 Data Sources for Energy Demand Forecasting ModelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report

  8. Neutron resonance averaging

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chrien, R.E.

    1986-10-01

    The principles of resonance averaging as applied to neutron capture reactions are described. Several illustrations of resonance averaging to problems of nuclear structure and the distribution of radiative strength in nuclei are provided. 30 refs., 12 figs.

  9. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  10. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  11. Absolute calibration of optical flats

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sommargren, Gary E.

    2005-04-05

    The invention uses the phase shifting diffraction interferometer (PSDI) to provide a true point-by-point measurement of absolute flatness over the surface of optical flats. Beams exiting the fiber optics in a PSDI have perfect spherical wavefronts. The measurement beam is reflected from the optical flat and passed through an auxiliary optic to then be combined with the reference beam on a CCD. The combined beams include phase errors due to both the optic under test and the auxiliary optic. Standard phase extraction algorithms are used to calculate this combined phase error. The optical flat is then removed from the system and the measurement fiber is moved to recombine the two beams. The newly combined beams include only the phase errors due to the auxiliary optic. When the second phase measurement is subtracted from the first phase measurement, the absolute phase error of the optical flat is obtained.

  12. Absolute Continuous Multivariate Generalized Exponential Distribution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kundu, Debasis

    Absolute Continuous Multivariate Generalized Exponential Distribution Debasis Kundu1,2 & Ankush Kumar1 & Arjun K. Gupta3 Abstract Generalized exponential distribution has received some attention continuous bivariate generalized exponential distribution. In this paper we propose an absolute continuous

  13. Improving automotive battery sales forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bulusu, Vinod

    2015-01-01

    Improvement in sales forecasting allows firms not only to respond quickly to customers' needs but also to reduce inventory costs, ultimately increasing their profits. Sales forecasts have been studied extensively to improve ...

  14. Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  15. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors

  16. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  17. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutledge, Steven

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary microbursts than in many previously documented microbursts. Alignment of Doppler radar data to reports of wind-related damage to electrical power infrastructure in Phoenix allowed a comparison of microburst wind damage

  18. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  19. Average Angular Velocity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    H. Essen

    2004-01-28

    This paper addresses the problem of the separation of rotational and internal motion. It introduces the concept of average angular velocity as the moment of inertia weighted average of particle angular velocities. It extends and elucidates the concept of Jellinek and Li (1989) of separation of the energy of overall rotation in an arbitrary (non-linear) $N$-particle system. It generalizes the so called Koenig's theorem on the two parts of the kinetic energy (center of mass plus internal) to three parts: center of mass, rotational, plus the remaining internal energy relative to an optimally translating and rotating frame.

  20. FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Connors, Daniel A.

    1 FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2014 We are higher than normal, and vertical wind shear throughout the Atlantic basin has been much stronger than-period average values. (as of 31 July 2014) By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well

  1. Employment Forecasts for Ohio's Primary Metals Manufacturing and Administrative and Support Services Industries

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Illinois at Chicago, University of

    that are outperforming the industry average. Additional research shows that the industry is reactive to manufacturingEmployment Forecasts for Ohio's Primary Metals Manufacturing and Administrative and Support, the primary metals manufacturing industry (NAICS 331000) employment in Ohio is forecasted to decline by 21

  2. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime-Switching

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genton, Marc G.

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at a wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime. Geographically dispersed was applied to 2-hour-ahead forecasts of hourly average wind speed near the Stateline wind energy center

  3. A Local Ensemble Prediction System for Fog and Low Clouds: Construction, Bayesian Model Averaging Calibration, and Validation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A Local Ensemble Prediction System for Fog and Low Clouds: Construction, Bayesian Model Averaging. Meteorologists face the challenge of supplying airport authorities with accurate forecasts of fog and cloud during their life cycle. To obtain accurate forecasts of fog and low clouds, the Code de Brouillard à l

  4. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  5. Quantum nonequilibrium equalities with absolute irreversibility

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ken Funo; Yûto Murashita; Masahito Ueda

    2015-03-30

    We derive quantum nonequilibrium equalities in absolutely irreversible processes. Here by absolute irreversibility we mean that in the backward process the density matrix does not return to the subspace spanned by those eigenvectors that have nonzero weight in the initial density matrix. Since the initial state of a memory and the postmeasurement state of the system are usually restricted to a subspace, absolute irreversibility occurs during the measurement and feedback processes. An additional entropy produced in absolute irreversible processes needs to be taken into account to derive nonequilibrium equalities. We discuss a model of a feedback control on a qubit system to illustrate the obtained equalities. By introducing $N$ heat baths each composed of a qubit and letting them interact with the system, we show how the entropy reduction via feedback control can be converted into work. An explicit form of extractable work in the presence of absolute irreversibility is given.

  6. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentricNCubicthe FOIA?ResourceMeasurement BuoyForecasting Sign

  7. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    s economy. Demand Forecasts The three energy futures wereto meet the forecast demand in each energy futurE2. e e1£~energy saved through improved appliance efficiencies. Also icit in our demand forecasts

  8. Price forecasting for notebook computers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutherford, Derek Paul

    1997-01-01

    of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach...

  9. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

    2007-01-01

    Economy, 95(5), 1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri,Notion of Quantiles for Multivariate Data,” Journal of thePress, United Kingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner,

  10. Absolute Continuous Bivariate Generalized Exponential Distribution

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kundu, Debasis

    Absolute Continuous Bivariate Generalized Exponential Distribution Debasis Kundu and Rameshwar D. Gupta Abstract Generalized exponential distribution has been used quite effectively to model posi- tively skewed lifetime data as an alternative to the well known Weibull or gamma distributions

  11. Absolute vs. intensity-based emission caps

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ellerman, A. Denny.

    Cap-and-trade systems limit emissions to some pre-specified absolute quantity. Intensity-based limits, that restrict emissions to some pre-specified rate relative to input or output, are much more widely used in environmental ...

  12. Emission trading with absolute and intensity caps

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Song, Jaemin

    2005-01-01

    The Kyoto Protocol introduced emission trading to help reduce the cost of compliances for the Annex B countries that have absolute caps. However, we need to expand the emission trading to cover developing countries in order ...

  13. Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of Domain Composition...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of Domain Composition and Nanoscale Size Distribution Explains Performance in Solar Cells Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of...

  14. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  15. Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

    2005-03-01

    Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

  16. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  17. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study...

  18. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US.2013: Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and asatellite-derived irradiances: Description and validation.

  19. Spacetime Averaged Null Energy Condition

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Douglas Urban; Ken D. Olum

    2010-06-13

    The averaged null energy condition has known violations for quantum fields in curved space, even if one considers only achronal geodesics. Many such examples involve rapid variation in the stress-energy tensor in the vicinity of the geodesic under consideration, giving rise to the possibility that averaging in additional dimensions would yield a principle universally obeyed by quantum fields. However, after discussing various procedures for additional averaging, including integrating over all dimensions of the manifold, we give a class of examples that violate any such averaged condition.

  20. Spacetime averaged null energy condition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Urban, Douglas; Olum, Ken D.

    2010-06-15

    The averaged null energy condition has known violations for quantum fields in curved space, even when one considers only achronal geodesics. Many such examples involve rapid variation in the stress-energy tensor in the vicinity of the geodesic under consideration, giving rise to the possibility that averaging in additional dimensions would yield a principle universally obeyed by quantum fields. However, after discussing various procedures for additional averaging, including integrating over all dimensions of the manifold, we give here a class of examples that violate any such averaged condition.

  1. 1 Absolute Calibration 1.1 Overview

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of fit. The quality of the result­ ing response matrix, and hence, the absolute quantum efficiency plane of the electrons and other storage ring parameters: electron energy, ring current and magnetic to control and readouts the CCDs. The chamber was mounted to the PTB beamline via a ceramic electro­isolator

  2. Averaging Hypotheses in Newtonian Cosmology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    T. Buchert

    1995-12-20

    Average properties of general inhomogeneous cosmological models are discussed in the Newtonian framework. It is shown under which circumstances the average flow reduces to a member of the standard Friedmann--Lema\\^\\i tre cosmologies. Possible choices of global boundary conditions of inhomogeneous cosmologies as well as consequences for the interpretation of cosmological parameters are put into perspective.

  3. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  4. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  5. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  6. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  7. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

  8. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    income 7 Figure 1.14: United States inflation Rate 8 Figure 1.15: Select United States interest Rates 8 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTiVE SUMMARY 1 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY 3 Recent Trends Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

  9. Absolute-magnitude distributions of supernovae

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richardson, Dean; Wright, John [Department of Physics, Xavier University of Louisiana, New Orleans, LA 70125 (United States); Jenkins III, Robert L. [Applied Physics Department, Richard Stockton College, Galloway, NJ 08205 (United States); Maddox, Larry, E-mail: drichar7@xula.edu [Department of Chemistry and Physics, Southeastern Louisiana University, Hammond, LA 70402 (United States)

    2014-05-01

    The absolute-magnitude distributions of seven supernova (SN) types are presented. The data used here were primarily taken from the Asiago Supernova Catalogue, but were supplemented with additional data. We accounted for both foreground and host-galaxy extinction. A bootstrap method is used to correct the samples for Malmquist bias. Separately, we generate volume-limited samples, restricted to events within 100 Mpc. We find that the superluminous events (M{sub B} < –21) make up only about 0.1% of all SNe in the bias-corrected sample. The subluminous events (M{sub B} > –15) make up about 3%. The normal Ia distribution was the brightest with a mean absolute blue magnitude of –19.25. The IIP distribution was the dimmest at –16.75.

  10. Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    for the same data. Two methods are described for forecasting daily peak loads up to one week ahead through, including generator unit commitment, hydro-thermal coordination, short-term maintenance, fuel allocation forecasting accuracies. STLF forecasting covers the daily peak load, total daily energy, and daily load curve

  11. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  12. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Silander Jr., John A.

    Forecasting phenology under global warming Ine´s Iba´n~ez1,*, Richard B. Primack2, Abraham J in phenology. Keywords: climate change; East Asia, global warming; growing season, hierarchical Bayes; plant is shifting, and these shifts have been linked to recent global warming (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Root et al

  13. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  14. Absolute intensity calibration of the 32-channel heterodyne radiometer on experimental advanced superconducting tokamak

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, X.; Zhao, H. L.; Liu, Y. Li, E. Z.; Han, X.; Ti, A.; Hu, L. Q.; Zhang, X. D.; Domier, C. W.; Luhmann, N. C.

    2014-09-15

    This paper presents the results of the in situ absolute intensity calibration for the 32-channel heterodyne radiometer on the experimental advanced superconducting tokamak. The hot/cold load method is adopted, and the coherent averaging technique is employed to improve the signal to noise ratio. Measured spectra and electron temperature profiles are compared with those from an independent calibrated Michelson interferometer, and there is a relatively good agreement between the results from the two different systems.

  15. Absolute instruments and perfect imaging in geometrical optics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyc, Tomas

    Absolute instruments and perfect imaging in geometrical optics Tom´as Tyc, Lenka Herz symmetric absolute instruments that provide perfect imaging in the sense of geometrical optics. We derive to propose several new absolute instruments, in particular a lens providing a stigmatic image of an optically

  16. Targeted CT Screening for Lung Cancer using Absolute Risk Prediction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brent, Roger

    Targeted CT Screening for Lung Cancer using Absolute Risk Prediction Stephanie A. Kovalchik skovalch@rand.org FHCRC 2014 Risk Prediction Symposium June 11, 2014 1 #12;Outline · Lung Cancer Epidemiology and Screening · Screening Benefit and Absolute Risk · Absolute Risk Model for Lung Cancer

  17. Distances and absolute magnitudes from trigonometric parallaxes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    F. Arenou; X. Luri

    1998-12-04

    We first review the current knowledge of Hipparcos systematic and random errors, in particular small-scale correlations. Then, assuming Gaussian parallax errors and using examples from the recent Hipparcos literature, we show how random errors may be misinterpreted as systematic errors, or transformed into systematic errors. Finally we summarise how to get unbiased estimates of absolute magnitudes and distances, using either Bayesian or non-parametrical methods. These methods may be applied to get either mean quantities or individual estimates. In particular, we underline the notion of astrometry-based luminosity, which avoids the truncation biases and allows a full use of Hipparcos samples.

  18. Beyond Repetiton: Karl Kraus's "Absolute Satire"

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Linden, Ari

    2013-10-01

    der Mensch- heit: Tragödie in fünf Akten mit Vorspiel und Epilog (The Last Days of Mankind: Tragedy in Five Acts with Prologue and Epilogue).12 By combining immanent critique with a theory of repetition, I will show how Kraus’s “absolute satire” (a... of journalism that it aims to criticize. Combining this two-pronged criticism, Bernd Witte offers this formulation: “With his crude, speculative, and antisemitic literary satire, Kraus tries to separate himself from his literary Urvater (Ur-father) and give...

  19. Absolut Energy Capital | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX ECoop IncIowa (UtilityMichigan)data bookresult9)ATSAbram-Perezville,Absolut Energy

  20. Absolute Energy Capital | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX ECoop IncIowa (UtilityMichigan)data bookresult9)ATSAbram-Perezville,Absolut

  1. Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan

    2014-09-12

    Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

  2. Quantum Averages of Weak Values

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yakir Aharonov; Alonso Botero

    2005-08-23

    We re-examine the status of the weak value of a quantum mechanical observable as an objective physical concept, addressing its physical interpretation and general domain of applicability. We show that the weak value can be regarded as a \\emph{definite} mechanical effect on a measuring probe specifically designed to minimize the back-reaction on the measured system. We then present a new framework for general measurement conditions (where the back-reaction on the system may not be negligible) in which the measurement outcomes can still be interpreted as \\emph{quantum averages of weak values}. We show that in the classical limit, there is a direct correspondence between quantum averages of weak values and posterior expectation values of classical dynamical properties according to the classical inference framework.

  3. Risk Management for Video-on-Demand Servers leveraging Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Baochun

    Risk Management for Video-on-Demand Servers leveraging Demand Forecast Di Niu, Hong Xu, Baochun Li}@eecg.toronto.edu Shuqiao Zhao Multimedia Development Group UUSee, Inc. shuqiao.zhao@gmail.com ABSTRACT Video-on-demand (VoD) servers are usually over-provisioned for peak demands, incurring a low average resource effi- ciency

  4. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast Summary.............................................................................................. 11 Demand From Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV megawatt-hours of electricity in 2007. That demand is expected to grow to 25,000 average megawatts by 2030

  5. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens to the Klim wind farm using three WPPT forecasts based on different weather forecasting systems. It is shown of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  6. Weather Forecasts are for Wimps: Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rayner, Steve; Lach, Denise; Ingram, Helen

    2005-01-01

    and Winter, S. G. : 1960, Weather Information and EconomicThe ENSO Signal 7, 4–6. WEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPSWEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPS ? : WHY WATER RESOURCE

  7. Experiments for the absolute neutrino mass measurement

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Markus Steidl

    2009-06-02

    Experimental results and perspectives of different methods to measure the absolute mass scale of neutrinos are briefly reviewed. The mass sensitivities from cosmological observations, double beta decay searches and single beta decay spectroscopy differ in sensitivity and model dependance. Next generation experiments in the three fields reach the sensitivity for the lightest mass eigenstate of $m_1<0.2eV$, which will finally answer the question if neutrino mass eigenstates are degenerate. This sensitivity is also reached by the only model-independent approach of single beta decay (KATRIN experiment). For higher sensitivities on cost of model-dependance the neutrinoless double beta decay search and cosmological observation have to be applied. Here, in the next decade sensitivities are approached with the potential to test inverted hierarchy models.

  8. Relativistic Spacetime Based on Absolute Background

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ChiYi Chen

    2015-09-19

    Based on the consideration of naturalness and physical facts in Einstein's theories of relativity, a nontrivial spacetime physical picture, which has a slight difference from the standard one, is introduced by making a further distinction on the absolute background of spacetime and the relative length or duration of base units of spacetime. In this picture, the coordinate base units in gravity-induced spacetime metric are defined by the standard clock and ruler equipped by the observer, and duplicated onto the every position of the whole universe. In contrast, the proper base units of spacetime in gravitational field are defined by the length and duration of physical events intervals in the same-type standard clock and ruler really located at every position of the universe. In principle, the reading number of the standard clock is counted by the undergone times of unit intervals defined depending on a certain kind of proper events. But the size of the base units of spacetime is essentially depicted by the length of the line segment, which is cut from the absolute background of spacetime by the proper events of unit interval. The effect of gravitation is just to change the length of this segment for base spacetime units. On the basis of such a physical picture of spacetime, in a fairly natural way we re-derive a new classical dynamical equation which satisfies a more realistic and moderately general principle of relativity. To further examine this physical picture including of gravitation and spacetime, we also reinterpret the gravitational redshifts for solar gravity tests.

  9. The Preservation of Physical Fashion Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kosztowny, Alexander John

    2015-01-01

    schools and their libraries, which use trend forecastingin archives and libraries would be that the trend forecastsin a library or archive, not exclusively to trend forecasts.

  10. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    R&D translates into improved performance and reduced costs for energy technologies. Motivation Technological forecasts, which plot the anticipated performance and costs of...

  11. Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koottatep, Pakawkul

    2006-01-01

    Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

  12. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    that take place in complex terrain, this funding opportunity will improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  13. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  14. Average-Atom Thomson Scattering

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Walter R.

    -Atom Approximation W. R. Johnson, Notre Dame J. Nilsen & K. T. Cheng, LLNL The cross section for Thomson scattering Average-Atom Model Divide plasma into WS cells with a nucleus and Z electrons p2 2 - Z r + V a(r) = a a(r) V(r) = VKS(n(r), r) n(r) = nb(r) + nc(r) 4r2nb(r) = nl 2(2l+1) 1+exp[( nl -µ)/kBT] Pnl(r)2 Z = r

  15. Ensemble bayesian model averaging using markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Diks, Cees G H; Clark, Martyn P

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In their seminal paper (Raftery etal. Mon Weather Rev 133: 1155-1174, 2(05)) has recommended the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for BMA model training, even though global convergence of this algorithm cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we compare the performance of the EM algorithm and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the BMA weights and variances. Simulation experiments using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and multi-model stream-flow forecasts show that both methods produce similar results, and that their performance is unaffected by the length of the training data set. However, MCMC simulation with DREAM is capable of efficiently handling a wide variety of BMA predictive distributions, and provides useful information about the uncertainty associated with the estimated BMA weights and variances.

  16. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the electricity price forecast. This resource mix is used to forecast the fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power Plan. This forecast is an estimate of the future price of electricity

  17. 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenslade, Diana

    SHEET 6 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting and Warning Services The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing an effective flood forecasting and warning service in each Australian state

  18. "Variable","Average Absolute Percent Differences","Percent of Projections Over- Estimated"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page| Open Energy Informationmonthly gasoline price to fall to $3.43U.S.longec 188 U.S.1 HomeRegional37Annual Energy

  19. Absolute measurement of small-amplitude vibrations by time-averaged heterodyne holography with a dual local oscillator

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    the radiofrequency (RF) content of an optical radiation field E in a sensor bandwidth by mixing it with a LO field camera, (Andor IXON 885+, readout rate S/(2) = 20 Hz). The main optical radiation field is provided

  20. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMass map shines lightGeospatial ToolkitSMARTS -BeingFuture forForecasting NREL researchers

  1. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX E LISTStar2-0057-EA Jump to:ofEnia SpAFlex Fuels Energy JumpVyncke Jump to:Forecast

  2. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parsons, Simon

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions

  3. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  4. Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts VERONICA ensembles that generates calibrated probabilistic forecast products for weather quantities at indi- vidual perturbation (GOP) method, and extends BMA to generate calibrated probabilistic forecasts of whole weather

  5. Absolute nuclear material assay using count distribution (LAMBDA) space

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prasad, Manoj K. (Pleasanton, CA); Snyderman, Neal J. (Berkeley, CA); Rowland, Mark S. (Alamo, CA)

    2012-06-05

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  6. Achronal averaged null energy condition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Noah; Olum, Ken D. [Department of Physics, Middlebury College, Middlebury, Vermont 05753 (United States) and Center for Theoretical Physics, Laboratory for Nuclear Science, and Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139 (United States); Institute of Cosmology, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts 02155 (United States)

    2007-09-15

    The averaged null energy condition (ANEC) requires that the integral over a complete null geodesic of the stress-energy tensor projected onto the geodesic tangent vector is never negative. This condition is sufficient to prove many important theorems in general relativity, but it is violated by quantum fields in curved spacetime. However there is a weaker condition, which is free of known violations, requiring only that there is no self-consistent spacetime in semiclassical gravity in which ANEC is violated on a complete, achronal null geodesic. We indicate why such a condition might be expected to hold and show that it is sufficient to rule out closed timelike curves and wormholes connecting different asymptotically flat regions.

  7. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  8. INTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , discourse and semantic. They are based on a conceptual model underlying weather forecasts as well situations represented in the form of texts in NL, weather maps, data tables or combined information objectsINTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev I n s t i t u t e of Mathematics Acad

  9. Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hart, Sergiu

    Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart October 2015 SERGIU HART c 2015 ­ p. #12;Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart Center for the Study of Rationality Dept of Mathematics Dept of Economics The Hebrew University of Jerusalem hart@huji.ac.il http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/hart

  10. Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roberts, Stephen

    Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments Technical Report PARG 08-03 Seung of Oxford December 2008 #12;Seung Min Lee and Stephen J. Roberts Technical Report PARG 08-03 Multivariate missing observations and forecasting future values in incomplete multivariate time series data. We study

  11. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author, Guangzhou 510301, China9 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological10, China20 21 22 23 24 Submitted to Weather and Forecasting25 2014. 12. 2826 27 Corresponding author: Dr

  12. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Richard H.

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author Fort Collins, Colorado7 October 20128 (submitted to Weather and Forecasting)9 1 Corresponding author address: Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, HQ Air Force Weather Agency 16th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Dr., Offutt

  13. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  14. Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

    2011-03-29

    We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

  15. Absolute Timing of the Crab Pulsar with RXTE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold H. Rots; Keith Jahoda; Andrew G. Lyne

    2004-03-08

    We have monitored the phase of the main X-ray pulse of the Crab pulsar with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) for almost eight years, since the start of the mission in January 1996. The absolute time of RXTE's clock is sufficiently accurate to allow this phase to be compared directly with the radio profile. Our monitoring observations of the pulsar took place bi-weekly (during the periods when it was at least 30 degrees from the Sun) and we correlated the data with radio timing ephemerides derived from observations made at Jodrell Bank. We have determined the phase of the X-ray main pulse for each observation with a typical error in the individual data points of 50 us. The total ensemble is consistent with a phase that is constant over the monitoring period, with the X-ray pulse leading the radio pulse by 0.0102+/-0.0012 period in phase, or 344+/-40 us in time. The error estimate is dominated by a systematic error of 40 us in the radio data, arising from uncertainties in the variable amount of pulse delay due to interstellar scattering and instrumental calibration. The statistical error is 0.00015 period, or 5 us. The separation of the main pulse and interpulse appears to be unchanging at time scales of a year or less, with an average value of 0.4001+/-0.0002 period. There is no apparent variation in these values with energy over the 2-30 keV range. The lag between the radio and X-ray pulses may be constant in phase (rotational) or constant in time (linear pathlength). We are not (yet) able to distinguish between these two interpretations.

  16. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  17. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  18. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number weather forecasts and do not take any possible correlation into ac- count. Since wind and wave forecasts

  19. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  20. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both

  1. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  2. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  3. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Manager Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

  4. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P. Oglesby Executive

  5. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION

  6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  7. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Gough Office Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  8. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  9. Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecast of 4) Calculate Hourly Load Allocation Factor s for each day for 2019 For use in RA analysis as a function ofthe load for electricity in the region as a function of cyclical, weather and economic variables

  10. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  11. Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilleland, Eric

    Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

  12. New product forecasting in volatile markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baldwin, Alexander (Alexander Lee)

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting demand for limited-life cycle products is essentially projecting an arc trend of demand growth and decline over a relatively short time horizon. When planning for a new limited-life product, many marketing and ...

  13. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  14. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  15. Spectral averaging techniques for Jacobi matrices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rafael del Rio; Carmen Martinez; Hermann Schulz-Baldes

    2008-02-20

    Spectral averaging techniques for one-dimensional discrete Schroedinger operators are revisited and extended. In particular, simultaneous averaging over several parameters is discussed. Special focus is put on proving lower bounds on the density of the averaged spectral measures. These Wegner type estimates are used to analyze stability properties for the spectral types of Jacobi matrices under local perturbations.

  16. Space-time forecasting and evaluation of wind speed with statistical tests for comparing accuracy of spatial predictions 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hering, Amanda S.

    2010-10-12

    High-quality short-term forecasts of wind speed are vital to making wind power a more reliable energy source. Gneiting et al. (2006) have introduced a model for the average wind speed two hours ahead based on both spatial and temporal information...

  17. Relative and Absolute Mobility Rates in the United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miller, L. Keith

    1971-01-01

    the actual normative structure allows little else than inheritance. Thus whether one is comparing the same country at different times or different countries at the same time, the absolute mobility rates may not reveal the actual normative structures. Relative... of jobs which will obtain if present trends in the distribution continue until a stable state is reached. This stable state is easily determined by means of simple Markov theorems. 3 Relative and Absolute Mobility Rates Table 2. The Rigidity of U...

  18. General Relativity and Spatial Flows: I. Absolute Relativistic Dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tom Martin

    2000-06-08

    Two complementary and equally important approaches to relativistic physics are explained. One is the standard approach, and the other is based on a study of the flows of an underlying physical substratum. Previous results concerning the substratum flow approach are reviewed, expanded, and more closely related to the formalism of General Relativity. An absolute relativistic dynamics is derived in which energy and momentum take on absolute significance with respect to the substratum. Possible new effects on satellites are described.

  19. Intra-hour Direct Normal Irradiance solar forecasting using genetic programming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Queener, Benjamin Daniel

    2012-01-01

    guideline for Solar Power Forecasting Performance . . 46 viof forecasting techniques for solar power production with noand A. Pavlovski, “Solar power forecasting performance

  20. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of the WRF model solar irradiance forecasts in Andalusia (Beyer, H. , 2009.    Irradiance forecasting for the power dependent probabilistic irradiance  forecasts for coastal 

  1. Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Golden, Kenneth M.

    Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming forecasts of how global warming will affect polar icepacks. See also: Earth & Climate q Global Warming q the effects of climate warming, and its presence greatly reduces solar heating of the polar oceans." "Sea ice

  2. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  3. Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    Goal: Design nodal price and grid congestion forecasting tools for market operators and market Traders To facilitate scenario-conditioned planning Price forecasting for Market Participants (MPs) To manage short for portfolio management by power market participants Conclusion #12;Project OverviewProject Overview Project

  4. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  5. Dynamic Multiscale Averaging (DMA) of Turbulent Flow

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richard W. Johnson

    2012-09-01

    A new approach called dynamic multiscale averaging (DMA) for computing the effects of turbulent flow is described. The new method encompasses multiple applications of temporal and spatial averaging, that is, multiscale operations. Initially, a direct numerical simulation (DNS) is performed for a relatively short time; it is envisioned that this short time should be long enough to capture several fluctuating time periods of the smallest scales. The flow field variables are subject to running time averaging during the DNS. After the relatively short time, the time-averaged variables are volume averaged onto a coarser grid. Both time and volume averaging of the describing equations generate correlations in the averaged equations. These correlations are computed from the flow field and added as source terms to the computation on the next coarser mesh. They represent coupling between the two adjacent scales. Since they are computed directly from first principles, there is no modeling involved. However, there is approximation involved in the coupling correlations as the flow field has been computed for only a relatively short time. After the time and spatial averaging operations are applied at a given stage, new computations are performed on the next coarser mesh using a larger time step. The process continues until the coarsest scale needed is reached. New correlations are created for each averaging procedure. The number of averaging operations needed is expected to be problem dependent. The new DMA approach is applied to a relatively low Reynolds number flow in a square duct segment. Time-averaged stream-wise velocity and vorticity contours from the DMA approach appear to be very similar to a full DNS for a similar flow reported in the literature. Expected symmetry for the final results is produced for the DMA method. The results obtained indicate that DMA holds significant potential in being able to accurately compute turbulent flow without modeling for practical engineering applications.

  6. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  7. New directions for forecasting air travel passenger demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garvett, Donald Stephen

    1974-01-01

    While few will disagree that sound forecasts are an essential prerequisite to rational transportation planning and analysis, the making of these forecasts has become a complex problem with the broadening of the scope and ...

  8. Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Yong - Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Missouri

    1 Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic true value. However, such a forecast- ing function is not directly applicable for applications potentially result in insufficient allocation of bandwidth leading to short term data loss. To facilitate

  9. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  10. Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chevis, Gia Marie

    2004-11-15

    Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...

  11. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting September 12, 2014 - 2:06pm Addthis...

  12. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-01-01

    Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

  13. OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .................................................................................................................................... 323 II. SCIENCE OF EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING AND PREDICTION 325 A. Definitions and Concepts....................................................................................................................................... 325 B. Research on Earthquake PredictabilityOPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization Report

  14. MESOSCALE AVERAGING OF NUCLEATION AND GROWTH MODELS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ferguson, Thomas S.

    MESOSCALE AVERAGING OF NUCLEATION AND GROWTH MODELS MARTIN BURGER , VINCENZO CAPASSO , AND LIVIO-Kolmogorov relations for the degree of crystallinity. By relating the computation of expected values to mesoscale averaging, we obtain a suitable description of the process at the mesoscale. We show how the variance

  15. Optimal Average Cost Manufacturing Flow Controllers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Veatch, Michael H.

    policy the differ- ential cost is C1 on attractive control switching boundaries. Index Terms Average costOptimal Average Cost Manufacturing Flow Controllers: Convexity and Differentiability Michael H and differentiability of the differential cost function are investigated. It is proven that under an optimal control

  16. Averages in vector spaces over finite fields 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wright J.; Carbery A.; Stones B.

    2008-01-01

    We study the analogues of the problems of averages and maximal averages over a surface in R-n when the euclidean structure is replaced by that of a vector space over a finite field, and obtain optimal results in a number ...

  17. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  18. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  19. Managerial Career Concerns and Earnings Forecasts SARAH SHAIKH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tipple, Brett

    's aversion to risk, I find that a CEO is less likely to issue an earnings forecast in periods of stricter non is more pronounced for a CEO who has greater concern for his reputation, faces more risk in forecasting the provision of earnings forecasts. Literature has long recognized that the labor market provides distinct

  20. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McBurney, Peter

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica­ tions Services. 1 #12

  1. Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures Aiming Wu, William W Tang Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA Neural Networks (in press) December 11, 2005 title: Forecast of sea surface temperature 1 #12;Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea

  2. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co Paulina Jaramillo Doctor Paul Fischbeck 2012 #12;ii #12;iii Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information

  3. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power. This paper presents two methods focusing on forecasting large and sharp variations in power output of a wind

  4. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg in irradiance forecasting have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius and Cotton, 1981), when or progress with respect to the development of solar irradiance forecasting methods. Heck and Takle (1987

  5. Choosing Words in Computer-Generated Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    to communicate numeric weather data. A corpus-based analysis of how humans write forecasts showed that there wereTime- Mousam weather-forecast generator to use consistent data-to-word rules, which avoided words which were weather forecast texts from numerical weather pre- diction data (SumTime-Mousam in fact is used

  6. Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Wind power forecast data observed wind power input (2004 ­ 2006

  7. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines@mines.edu ABSTRACT Forecasting the occupancy of buildings can lead to signif- icant improvement of smart heating throughout a building, we perform data mining to forecast occupancy a short time (i.e., up to 60 minutes

  8. Weather Forecasting -Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting - Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, "weather forecasts" are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the effec- tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  9. Weather Forecasting Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting ­ Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, ``weather forecasts'' are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the e#ec­ tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  10. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  11. Preprints, 15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    ) models have substantially improved forecast skill. Recent and planned changes along these lines (e to delivering two kinds of weather products. The first is a day-to-day forecast of weather elements, e by the private sector. Improvements in automated techniques for the forecasting of basic weather elements

  12. Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robock, Alan

    Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts over the United and vegetation on 30 h convective precipitation forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over, the complete removal of vegetation produced substantially less precipitation, while conversion to forest led

  13. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  14. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    of Solar 2011, American Solar Energy Society, Raleigh, NC.Description and validation. Solar Energy, 73 (5), 307-317.forecast database. Solar Energy, Perez, R. , S. Kivalov, J.

  15. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

    2009-10-15

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

  16. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  17. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  18. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    and technological advancement in energy-intensive applications are causing fast electric energy consumption growth and consumption of electricity [8], as long as there is no significant correlation between intermittent energyArticle Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses Linas Gelazanskas * and Kelum A

  19. GOES Aviation Products Aviation Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuligowski, Bob

    GOES Aviation Products · The GOES aviation forecast products are based on energy measured in different characteristics #12;GOES Aviation Products Quiz · What is a geostationary satellite? · What generates energy received by the satellite in the visible band? · What generates energy received by the satellite

  20. Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    solar forecasting system based on numerical weather prediction plus satellite and ground-based data.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation Based Data 13 Summary 14 References 14 #12;List of Figures Figure Number and Title Page # 1. Topography

  1. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    summarisation. We found three alternative ways in which we could model data summarisation. One approach is based turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from

  2. "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS SEATTLE/TACOMA AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ASSESSMENT OF THE "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS FOR SEATTLE/TACOMA AND REGIONAL AIRPORTS TOGETHER 1. Introduction 5 2. Airport Planning Process 7 Traditional Master Planning Application to Seattle/Tacoma. Uncertainty about Capacity 27 A Fuzzy Concept Assessment Factors Application to Seattle/Tacoma 7. Assessment

  3. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  4. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  5. Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting by Nina Marie Caraway B of Civil Engineering 2012 #12;This thesis entitled: Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow mentioned discipline. #12;iii Caraway, Nina Marie (M.S., Civil Engineering) Stochastic Weather Generator

  6. A 110-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe Floods of 200307*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    A 1­10-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as they flow into Bangladesh; it has been operational since 2003. The Bangladesh points of the Ganges and Brahmaputra into Bangladesh. Forecasts with 1­10-day horizons are presented

  7. Double Beta Decay and the Absolute Neutrino Mass Scale

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carlo Giunti

    2003-08-20

    After a short review of the current status of three-neutrino mixing, the implications for the values of neutrino masses are discussed. The bounds on the absolute scale of neutrino masses from Tritium beta-decay and cosmological data are reviewed. Finally, we discuss the implications of three-neutrino mixing for neutrinoless double-beta decay.

  8. Islamic Star Patterns in Absolute Geometry CRAIG S. KAPLAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Waterloo, University of

    Islamic Star Patterns in Absolute Geometry CRAIG S. KAPLAN University of Waterloo and DAVID H' addresses: C. S. Kaplan, School of Computer Science, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West Transactions on Graphics, Vol. 23, No. 2, April 2004, Pages 97­119. #12;98 · C. S. Kaplan and D. H. Salesin

  9. Absolute Calibration of a Large-diameter Light Source

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brack, J T; Dorofeev, A; Gookin, B; Harton, J L; Petrov, Y; Rovero, A C

    2013-01-01

    A method of absolute calibration for large aperture optical systems is presented, using the example of the Pierre Auger Observatory fluorescence detectors. A 2.5 m diameter light source illuminated by an ultra--violet light emitting diode is calibrated with an overall uncertainty of 2.1 % at a wavelength of 365 nm.

  10. Measuring absolute infrared spectral radiance with correlated photons: new arrangements

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Migdall, Alan

    metrologia Measuring absolute infrared spectral radiance with correlated photons: new arrangements radiance using correlated photons are presented. The method has the remarkable feature that it allows be measured using correlated photons [1-4]. That work outlined some of the useful features of the method. One

  11. Measurements of absolute single differential cross section (SDCS)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zouros, Theo

    , Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Of­ fice of Energy research, U.S. Department of Energy, Hu­ man Capital and Mobility Program of the EU and the Greek Ministry of Industry, Energy and Technology. SIMION Tuning EnergyMeasurements of absolute single differential cross section (SDCS) [Left] and percentage energy res

  12. absolute reaction rate theory 156 accelerated cooled steels 3538

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cambridge, University of

    ±4 dislocation density 26±9, 70±1 distribution of carbon 71±2 driving forces 202±4 dual phase steels 358absolute reaction rate theory 156 accelerated cooled steels 353±8 acicular ferrites 237±76 forging steels 273±4 growth 240±3 inoculation 267±75 lattice matches 245 morphology 237±40 nucleation 243

  13. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  14. Distributed Averaging Via Lifted Markov Chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jung, Kyomin

    Motivated by applications of distributed linear estimation, distributed control, and distributed optimization, we consider the question of designing linear iterative algorithms for computing the average of numbers in a ...

  15. Thermal ghost imaging with averaged speckle patterns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shapiro, Jeffrey H.

    We present theoretical and experimental results showing that a thermal ghost imaging system can produce images of high quality even when it uses detectors so slow that they respond only to intensity-averaged (that is, ...

  16. Selling Geothermal Systems The "Average" Contractor

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Selling Geothermal Systems #12;The "Average" Contractor · History of sales procedures · Manufacturer Driven Procedures · What makes geothermal technology any harder to sell? #12;"It's difficult to sell a geothermal system." · It should

  17. Spacetime Average Density (SAD) cosmological measures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Page, Don N.

    2014-11-01

    The measure problem of cosmology is how to obtain normalized probabilities of observations from the quantum state of the universe. This is particularly a problem when eternal inflation leads to a universe of unbounded size so that there are apparently infinitely many realizations or occurrences of observations of each of many different kinds or types, making the ratios ambiguous. There is also the danger of domination by Boltzmann Brains. Here two new Spacetime Average Density (SAD) measures are proposed, Maximal Average Density (MAD) and Biased Average Density (BAD), for getting a finite number of observation occurrences by using properties of the Spacetime Average Density (SAD) of observation occurrences to restrict to finite regions of spacetimes that have a preferred beginning or bounce hypersurface. These measures avoid Boltzmann brain domination and appear to give results consistent with other observations that are problematic for other widely used measures, such as the observation of a positive cosmological constant.

  18. Average transmission probability of a random stack

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yin Lu; Christian Miniatura; Berthold-Georg Englert

    2009-07-31

    The transmission through a stack of identical slabs that are separated by gaps with random widths is usually treated by calculating the average of the logarithm of the transmission probability. We show how to calculate the average of the transmission probability itself with the aid of a recurrence relation and derive analytical upper and lower bounds. The upper bound, when used as an approximation for the transmission probability, is unreasonably good and we conjecture that it is asymptotically exact.

  19. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  20. Combinatorial Evolution and Forecasting of Communication Protocol ZigBee

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levin, Mark Sh; Kistler, Rolf; Klapproth, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    The article addresses combinatorial evolution and forecasting of communication protocol for wireless sensor networks (ZigBee). Morphological tree structure (a version of and-or tree) is used as a hierarchical model for the protocol. Three generations of ZigBee protocol are examined. A set of protocol change operations is generated and described. The change operations are used as items for forecasting based on combinatorial problems (e.g., clustering, knapsack problem, multiple choice knapsack problem). Two kinds of preliminary forecasts for the examined communication protocol are considered: (i) direct expert (expert judgment) based forecast, (ii) computation of the forecast(s) (usage of multicriteria decision making and combinatorial optimization problems). Finally, aggregation of the obtained preliminary forecasts is considered (two aggregation strategies are used).

  1. Polarized electron beams at milliampere average current

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poelker, Matthew

    2013-11-01

    This contribution describes some of the challenges associated with developing a polarized electron source capable of uninterrupted days-long operation at milliAmpere average beam current with polarization greater than 80%. Challenges will be presented in the context of assessing the required level of extrapolation beyond the performance of today's CEBAF polarized source operating at ~ 200 uA average current. Estimates of performance at higher current will be based on hours-long demonstrations at 1 and 4 mA. Particular attention will be paid to beam-related lifetime-limiting mechanisms, and strategies to construct a photogun that operate reliably at bias voltage > 350kV.

  2. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  3. Two techniques for forecasting clear air turbulence 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arbeiter, Randolph George

    1977-01-01

    result in only mild annoyance or discomfort (air sickness) to crew and passengers. As it becomes moderate, difficulty may be experienced in moving about inside the airplane and the crew may momentarily lose control. Severe CAT can result in injury... successfully used by the Air Force Clobal Heather Central (Barnett, 1970) for oper" tional forecasting on a day-to-day basis. Furthermore, its usefulness 1' or supersonic aircraft in the stratosphere v;as successfully demonstrated by Scoggins et H. (1975...

  4. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  5. Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

    2007-01-09

    An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

  6. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  7. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  8. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore »logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  9. Table 1. Real Average Transportation and Delivered Costs of Coal...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Real Average Transportation and Delivered Costs of Coal, By Year and Primary Transport Mode" "Year","Average Transportation Cost of Coal (Dollars per Ton)","Average Delivered Cost...

  10. Absolute photoionization cross-section of the propargyl radical

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Savee, John D.; Welz, Oliver; Taatjes, Craig A.; Osborn, David L. [Sandia National Laboratories, Combustion Research Facility, Livermore, California 94551 (United States); Soorkia, Satchin [Institut des Sciences Moleculaires d'Orsay, Universite Paris-Sud 11, Orsay (France); Selby, Talitha M. [Department of Chemistry, University of Wisconsin, Washington County Campus, West Bend, Wisconsin 53095 (United States)

    2012-04-07

    Using synchrotron-generated vacuum-ultraviolet radiation and multiplexed time-resolved photoionization mass spectrometry we have measured the absolute photoionization cross-section for the propargyl (C{sub 3}H{sub 3}) radical, {sigma}{sub propargyl}{sup ion}(E), relative to the known absolute cross-section of the methyl (CH{sub 3}) radical. We generated a stoichiometric 1:1 ratio of C{sub 3}H{sub 3} : CH{sub 3} from 193 nm photolysis of two different C{sub 4}H{sub 6} isomers (1-butyne and 1,3-butadiene). Photolysis of 1-butyne yielded values of {sigma}{sub propargyl}{sup ion}(10.213 eV)=(26.1{+-}4.2) Mb and {sigma}{sub propargyl}{sup ion}(10.413 eV)=(23.4{+-}3.2) Mb, whereas photolysis of 1,3-butadiene yielded values of {sigma}{sub propargyl}{sup ion}(10.213 eV)=(23.6{+-}3.6) Mb and {sigma}{sub propargyl}{sup ion}(10.413 eV)=(25.1{+-}3.5) Mb. These measurements place our relative photoionization cross-section spectrum for propargyl on an absolute scale between 8.6 and 10.5 eV. The cross-section derived from our results is approximately a factor of three larger than previous determinations.

  11. Laser Fusion Energy The High Average Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laser Fusion Energy and The High Average Power Program John Sethian Naval Research Laboratory Dec for Inertial Fusion Energy with lasers, direct drive targets and solid wall chambers Lasers DPPSL (LLNL) Kr posters Snead Payne #12;Laser(s) Goals 1. Develop technologies that can meet the fusion energy

  12. Extracting gluon condensate from the average plaquette

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Taekoon Lee

    2015-03-27

    The perturbative contribution in the average plaquette is subtracted using Borel summation and the remnant of the plaquette is shown to scale as a dim-4 condensate. A critical review is presented of the renormalon subtraction scheme that claimed a dim-2 condensate. The extracted gluon condensate is compared with the latest result employing high order (35-loop) calculation in the stochastic perturbation theory.

  13. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  14. The Commission Forecast 1992 Report: Important Resource Planning Issues 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adib, P.

    1992-01-01

    FORECAST 1992 REPORT: IMPORTANT RESOURCE PLANNING ISSUES PARVIZ ADIB MANAGER, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SECTION ELECTRIC DIVISION PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS ABSTRACT There is a general agreement among experts in the electric utility industry... there are many important issues in the preparation of a utility's electric resource plan, the Commission staff will address a few important ones in the next Commission Forecast Report (Forecast '92). In particular, the Commission staff will insure...

  15. Average gluon and quark jet multiplicities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. V. Kotikov

    2014-11-30

    We show the results in [1,2] for computing the QCD contributions to the scale evolution of average gluon and quark jet multiplicities. The new results came due a recent progress in timelike small-x resummation obtained in the MSbar factorization scheme. They depend on two nonperturbative parameters with clear and simple physical interpretations. A global fit of these two quantities to all available experimental data sets demonstrates by its goodness how our results solve a longstandig problem of QCD. Including all the available theoretical input within our approach, alphas(Mz)=0.1199 +- 0.0026 has been obtained in the MSbar scheme in an approximation equivalent to next-to-next-to-leading order enhanced by the resummations of ln x terms through the NNLL level and of ln Q2 terms by the renormalization group. This result is in excellent agreement with the present world average.

  16. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  17. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01

    function. The forecasts of oil, coal and gas prices as wellforecasts for natural gas consumption, electricity sales, coal and electricity prices,

  18. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  19. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  20. Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

  1. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping (Presentation...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the shift from ramping. * the benefits - better use of forecast values (load or net load) - reduce the amount of variability that the regulation reserve must accommodate...

  2. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  3. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  4. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear...

  5. Impact Ionization Model Using Average Energy and Average Square Energy of Distribution Function

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dunham, Scott

    Impact Ionization Model Using Average Energy and Average Square Energy of Distribution Function Ken relaxation length, v sat ø h''i (¸ 0:05¯m), the energy distribution function is not well described calculation of impact ionization coefficient requires the use of a high energy distribution function because

  6. Absolute Earthquake Locations with Differential Data By William Menke and David Schaff

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menke, William

    Absolute Earthquake Locations with Differential Data By William Menke and David Schaff Lamont the commonly-held wisdom that "you can't determine the absolute location of earthquakes using the double differential arrival time data can, in principle, be used to determine the absolute locations of earthquakes

  7. Absolute Efficiency Calibration of a Beta-Gamma Detector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooper, Matthew W.; Ely, James H.; Haas, Derek A.; Hayes, James C.; McIntyre, Justin I.; Lidey, Lance S.; Schrom, Brian T.

    2013-04-10

    Abstract- Identification and quantification of nuclear events such as the Fukushima reactor failure and nuclear explosions rely heavily on the accurate measurement of radioxenon releases. One radioxenon detection method depends on detecting beta-gamma coincident events paired with a stable xenon measurement to determine the concentration of a plume. Like all measurements, the beta-gamma method relies on knowing the detection efficiency for each isotope measured. Several methods are commonly used to characterize the detection efficiency for a beta-gamma detector. The most common method is using a NIST certified sealed source to determine the efficiency. A second method determines the detection efficiencies relative to an already characterized detector. Finally, a potentially more accurate method is to use the expected sample to perform an absolute efficiency calibration; in the case of a beta-gamma detector, this relies on radioxenon gas samples. The complication of the first method is it focuses only on the gamma detectors and does not offer a solution for determining the beta efficiency. The second method listed is not similarly constrained, however it relies on another detector to have a well-known efficiency calibration. The final method using actual radioxenon samples to make an absolute efficiency determination is the most desirable, but until recently it was not possible to produce all four isotopically pure radioxenon. The production, by University of Texas (UT), of isotopically pure radioxenon has allowed the beta-gamma detectors to be calibrated using the absolute efficiency method. The first four radioxenon isotope calibration will be discussed is this paper.

  8. Lens transmission measurement for an absolute radiation thermometer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hao, X.; Yuan, Z.; Lu, X.

    2013-09-11

    The lens transmission for the National Institute of Metrology of China absolute radiation thermometer is measured by a hybrid method. The results of the lens transmission measurements are 99.002% and 86.792% for filter radiometers with center wavelengths 633 nm and 900 nm, respectively. These results, after correcting for diffraction factors and the size-of-source effect when the lens is incorporated within the radiometer, can be used for measurement of thermodynamic temperature. The expanded uncertainty of the lens transmission measurement system has been evaluated. It is 1.3×10{sup ?3} at 633 nm and 900 nm, respectively.

  9. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William (Overland Park, KS)

    2007-07-03

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  10. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William (Overland Park, KS)

    2007-10-02

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  11. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William (Overland Park, KS)

    2009-09-01

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  12. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William (Overland Park, KS)

    2007-07-17

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  13. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William (Overland Park, KS)

    2008-10-21

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  14. ARM - Field Campaign - Absolute Solar Transmittance Interferometer (ASTI)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach HomeA Better Anode Design to Improve4AJ01) (See22, 2012III ARMgovCampaignsAbsolute Solar Transmittance

  15. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural GasEIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

  16. Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook Retrieving direct and diffuse radiation with the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 1/ 14 Retrieving. 17, 2015 #12;Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 2/ 14 Motivation Sky Imager based shortest-term solar irradiance forecasts for local solar energy applications

  17. ECMWF analyses and forecasts of 500 mb synoptic-scale activity during wintertime blocking 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Matson, David Michael

    1993-01-01

    An observational study of 500 mb atmospheric blocking is conducted based on an European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wintertime analysis and forecast dataset during dynamic extended range forecasting ...

  18. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  19. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  20. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  1. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  2. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  3. HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jamieson, Bruce

    HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson and decision makers strongly rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, for example on the forecasted on forecasted precipitation. KEYWORDS: Numerical weather prediction models, validation, precipitation 1

  4. Time-dependent angularly averaged inverse transport

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guillaume Bal; Alexandre Jollivet

    2009-05-07

    This paper concerns the reconstruction of the absorption and scattering parameters in a time-dependent linear transport equation from knowledge of angularly averaged measurements performed at the boundary of a domain of interest. We show that the absorption coefficient and the spatial component of the scattering coefficient are uniquely determined by such measurements. We obtain stability results on the reconstruction of the absorption and scattering parameters with respect to the measured albedo operator. The stability results are obtained by a precise decomposition of the measurements into components with different singular behavior in the time domain.

  5. Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMassR&D100Nationalquestionnaires 0serial codesReversingprovedReynolds-Averaged

  6. Absolute Values of Neutrino Masses: Status and Prospects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. M. Bilenky; C. Giunti; J. A. Grifols; E. Masso

    2003-03-27

    Compelling evidences in favor of neutrino masses and mixing obtained in the last years in Super-Kamiokande, SNO, KamLAND and other neutrino experiments made the physics of massive and mixed neutrinos a frontier field of research in particle physics and astrophysics. There are many open problems in this new field. In this review we consider the problem of the absolute values of neutrino masses, which apparently is the most difficult one from the experimental point of view. We discuss the present limits and the future prospects of beta-decay neutrino mass measurements and neutrinoless double-beta decay. We consider the important problem of the calculation of nuclear matrix elements of neutrinoless double-beta decay and discuss the possibility to check the results of different model calculations of the nuclear matrix elements through their comparison with the experimental data. We discuss the upper bound of the total mass of neutrinos that was obtained recently from the data of the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey and other cosmological data and we discuss future prospects of the cosmological measurements of the total mass of neutrinos. We discuss also the possibility to obtain information on neutrino masses from the observation of the ultra high-energy cosmic rays (beyond the GZK cutoff). Finally, we review the main aspects of the physics of core-collapse supernovae, the limits on the absolute values of neutrino masses from the observation of SN1987A neutrinos and the future prospects of supernova neutrino detection.

  7. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  8. The 2009 World Average of $?_s$

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Siegfried Bethke

    2009-08-15

    Measurements of $\\alpha_s$, the coupling strength of the Strong Interaction between quarks and gluons, are summarised and an updated value of the world average of $\\alpha_s (M_Z)$ is derived. Building up on previous reviews, special emphasis is laid on the most recent determinations of $\\alpha_s$. These are obtained from $\\tau$-decays, from global fits of electroweak precision data and from measurements of the proton structure function $\\F_2$, which are based on perturbative QCD calculations up to $O(\\alpha_s^4)$; from hadronic event shapes and jet production in $\\epem$ annihilation, based on $O(\\alpha_s^3) $ QCD; from jet production in deep inelastic scattering and from $\\Upsilon$ decays, based on $O(\\alpha_s^2) $ QCD; and from heavy quarkonia based on unquenched QCD lattice calculations. Applying pragmatic methods to deal with possibly underestimated errors and/or unknown correlations, the world average value of $\\alpha_s (M_Z)$ results in $\\alpha_s (M_Z) = 0.1184 \\pm 0.0007$. The measured values of $\\alpha_s (Q)$, covering energy scales from $Q \\equiv \\mtau = 1.78$ GeV to 209 GeV, exactly follow the energy dependence predicted by QCD and therefore significantly test the concept af Asymptotic Freedom.

  9. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  10. Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Ramon

    Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence Department of Computer Science on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. With their ability to discover patterns in nonlinear and chaotic systems, neural networks offer the ability to predict market directions more

  11. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids Andrea Michiorri Arthur-based battery schedule optimisation in microgrids in presence of network constraints. We examine a specific case production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  12. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    electricity consumption in time. This paper investigates the ability on Artificial Neural Networks to predict shift electric energy. Keywords--Hot Water Consumption; Forecasting; Artifitial Neural Networks; SmartForecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks Linas Gelazanskas

  13. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the forecast of electricity consumption for those years has been less than one half of a percent. Figure A-1 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  14. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make. The transportation fuel and crude oil import requirement assessments build on assumptions about California crude oil forecasts, transportation energy, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, crude oil production, fuel imports, crude oil

  15. A Deep Hybrid Model for Weather Forecasting Aditya Grover

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    @microsoft.com ABSTRACT Weather forecasting is a canonical predictive challenge that has depended primarily on model-based methods. We ex- plore new directions with forecasting weather as a data- intensive challenge that involves the joint statistics of a set of weather-related vari- ables. We show how the base model can be enhanced

  16. Hydrological Forecasting Improvements Primary Investigator: Thomas Croley -NOAA GLERL (Emeritus)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    multiple data streams in a near-real-time manner and incorporate them into the AHPS data base, run for matching weather forecasts with historical data, and prepare extensive forecasts of hydrology probabilities maximum use of all available information and be based on efficient and true hydrological process models

  17. DEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in a data base and graphic representation with tile standard meteorological icons on a map, e.g. iconsDEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA) by BENGT SIGURD, Sweden E-mail: linglund@gemini.ldc.lu.se FAX:46-(0)46 104210 Introduction and abstract Weather forecasts

  18. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    markets could aid in the design of appropriate price forecasting tools for such markets. Scenario1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou, restructured wholesale power markets, scenario generation, ARMA model, moment-matching method I. INTRODUCTION

  19. Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barnes, Graham

    Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data G. Barnes,1 K. D. Leka,1 E to solar flare forecasting, adapted to provide the probability that a measurement belongs to either group, the groups in this case being solar active regions which produced a flare within 24 hours and those

  20. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19

    Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA’s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez...

  1. Human Trajectory Forecasting In Indoor Environments Using Geometric Context

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . In addressing this problem, we have built a model to estimate the occupancy behavior of humans based enhancement in the accuracy of trajectory forecasting by incorporating the occupancy behavior model. Keywords Trajectory forecasting, human occupancy behavior, 3D ge- ometric context 1. INTRODUCTION Given a human

  2. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data Office. Andrea Gough ran the summary energy model and supervised data preparation. Glen Sharp prepared models. Both the staff revised energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly higher than

  3. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

  4. MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WATER VAPOUR Purchase Order 58311/ODG/99/8362/GWI/LET #12;i PREFACE Starting in August 1998, operational forecasts satellite imagery from the Co-operative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and upper

  5. Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwang, Kai

    1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan. One of the characteristic applications of Smart Grids is demand response optimization (DR). The goal of DR is to use the power consumption time series data to reliable forecast the future consumption

  6. THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY SERVICES by Steven Groves BASc of Research Project: The Desire to Acquire: Forecasting the Evolution of Household Energy Services Report No, and gasoline. A fixed effects panel model was used to examine the relationship of demand for energy

  7. Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting Ashish Kapoor, Zachary Horvitz, Spencer for observing weather phenomena at a continental scale. We focus specifically on the problem of wind forecasting with the sensed winds. The experiments show the promise of using airplane in flight as a large-scale sensor

  8. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Freitas, Nando de

    on the sentiment of price39 forecasts and reports for commodities such as gold, natural gas or most commonly oil or natural gas can impact everything from the21 critical business decisions made within nationsClassification of Commodity Price Forecast Sentiment With Random Forests and Bayesian Optimization

  9. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    114 Solar Irradiance And Power Output Variabilityand L. Bangyin. Online 24-h solar power forecasting based onNielsen. Online short-term solar power forecasting. Solar

  10. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance weather prediction for intra?day solar  forecasting in the 

  11. Building Electricity Load Forecasting via Stacking Ensemble Learning Method with Moving Horizon Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burger, Eric M.; Moura, Scott J.

    2015-01-01

    K. W. Yau, “Predicting electricity energy con- sumption: Afor building-level electricity load forecasts,” Energy andannealing algorithms in electricity load forecasting,”

  12. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  13. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  14. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  15. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  16. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  17. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  18. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  19. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  20. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  1. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  2. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  3. Fact #744: September 10, 2012 Average New Light Vehicle Price...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    4: September 10, 2012 Average New Light Vehicle Price Grows Faster than Average Used Light Vehicle Price Fact 744: September 10, 2012 Average New Light Vehicle Price Grows Faster...

  4. Conductance and absolutely continuous spectrum of 1D samples

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laurent Bruneau; Vojkan Jakši?; Yoram Last; Claude-Alain Pillet

    2015-04-27

    We characterize the absolutely continuous spectrum of the one-dimensional Schr\\"odinger operators $h=-\\Delta+v$ acting on $\\ell^2(\\mathbb{Z}_+)$ in terms of the limiting behavior of the Landauer-B\\"uttiker and Thouless conductances of the associated finite samples. The finite sample is defined by restricting $h$ to a finite interval $[1,L]\\cap\\mathbb{Z}_+$ and the conductance refers to the charge current across the sample in the open quantum system obtained by attaching independent electronic reservoirs to the sample ends. Our main result is that the conductances associated to an energy interval $I$ are non-vanishing in the limit $L\\to\\infty$ iff ${\\rm sp}_{\\rm ac}(h)\\cap I=\\emptyset$. We also discuss the relationship between this result and the Schr\\"odinger Conjecture.

  5. Absolute Measurement Of Laminar Shear Rate Using Photon Correlation Spectroscopy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Elliot Jenner; Brian D'Urso

    2015-05-11

    An absolute measurement of the components of the shear rate tensor $\\mathcal{S}$ in a fluid can be found by measuring the photon correlation function of light scattered from particles in the fluid. Previous methods of measuring $\\mathcal{S}$ involve reading the velocity at various points and extrapolating the shear, which can be time consuming and is limited in its ability to examine small spatial scale or short time events. Previous work in Photon Correlation Spectroscopy has involved only approximate solutions, requiring free parameters to be scaled by a known case, or different cases, such as 2-D flows, but here we present a treatment that provides quantitative results directly and without calibration for full 3-D flow. We demonstrate this treatment experimentally with a cone and plate rheometer.

  6. THE ABSOLUTE CALIBRATION OF THE EUV IMAGING SPECTROMETER ON HINODE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Warren, Harry P.; Ugarte-Urra, Ignacio; Landi, Enrico

    2014-07-01

    We investigate the absolute calibration of the EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) on Hinode by comparing EIS full-disk mosaics with irradiance observations from the EUV Variability Experiment on the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We also use extended observations of the quiet corona above the limb combined with a simple differential emission measure model to establish new effective area curves that incorporate information from the most recent atomic physics calculations. We find that changes to the EIS instrument sensitivity are a complex function of both time and wavelength. We find that the sensitivity is decaying exponentially with time and that the decay constants vary with wavelength. The EIS short wavelength channel shows significantly longer decay times than the long wavelength channel.

  7. Dark energy: the absolute electric potential of the universe

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jose Beltran Jimenez; Antonio L. Maroto

    2009-05-15

    Is there an absolute cosmic electric potential?. The recent discovery of the accelerated expansion of the universe could be indicating that this is certainly the case. In this essay we show that the consistency of the covariant and gauge invariant theory of electromagnetism is truly questionable when considered on cosmological scales. Out of the four components of the electromagnetic field, Maxwell's theory only contains two physical degrees of freedom. However, in the presence of gravity, one of the "unphysical" states cannot be consistently eliminated, thus becoming real. This third polarization state is completely decoupled from charged matter, but can be excited gravitationally thus breaking gauge invariance. On large scales the new state can be seen as a homogeneous cosmic electric potential, whose energy density behaves as a cosmological constant.

  8. Absolute properties of the eclipsing binary star IM Persei

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lacy, Claud H. Sandberg [Physics Department, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR 72701 (United States); Torres, Guillermo [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Fekel, Francis C.; Muterspaugh, Matthew W. [Center of Excellence in Information Systems, Tennessee State University, Nashville, TN 37209 (United States); Southworth, John, E-mail: clacy@uark.edu, E-mail: gtorres@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: fekel@evans.tsuniv.edu, E-mail: matthew1@coe.tsuniv.edu, E-mail: astro.js@keele.ac.uk [Astrophysics Group, Keele University, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG (United Kingdom)

    2015-01-01

    IM Per is a detached A7 eccentric eclipsing binary star. We have obtained extensive measurements of the light curve (28,225 differential magnitude observations) and radial velocity curve (81 spectroscopic observations) which allow us to fit orbits and determine the absolute properties of the components very accurately: masses of 1.7831 ± 0.0094 and 1.7741 ± 0.0097 solar masses, and radii of 2.409 ± 0.018 and 2.366 ± 0.017 solar radii. The orbital period is 2.25422694(15) days and the eccentricity is 0.0473(26). A faint third component was detected in the analysis of the light curves, and also directly observed in the spectra. The observed rate of apsidal motion is consistent with theory (U = 151.4 ± 8.4 year). We determine a distance to the system of 566 ± 46 pc.

  9. Method and apparatus for making absolute range measurements

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Earl, Dennis D. (Knoxville, TN); Allison, Stephen W. (Knoxville, TN); Cates, Michael R. (Oak Ridge, TN); Sanders, Alvin J. (Knoxville, TN)

    2002-09-24

    This invention relates to a method and apparatus for making absolute distance or ranging measurements using Fresnel diffraction. The invention employs a source of electromagnetic radiation having a known wavelength or wavelength distribution, which sends a beam of electromagnetic radiation through a screen at least partially opaque at the wavelength. The screen has an aperture sized so as to produce a Fresnel diffraction pattern. A portion of the beam travels through the aperture to a detector spaced some distance from the screen. The detector detects the central intensity of the beam as well as a set of intensities displaced from a center of the aperture. The distance from the source to the target can then be calculated based upon the known wavelength, aperture radius, and beam intensity.

  10. Absolute Values of Neutrino Masses implied by the Seesaw Mechanism

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tsujimoto, H

    2005-01-01

    It is found that the seesaw mechanism not only explain the smallness of neutrino masses but also account for the large mixing angles simultaneously, once the unification of the neutrino Dirac mass matrix with that of up-quark sector is realized. We show that provided the Majorana masses have hierarchical structure as is seen in the up-quark sector, we can reduce the information about the absolute values of neutrino masses through the data set of neutrino experiments. The results for the light neutrino masses are $m_1:m_2:m_3\\approx 1:3:17$ $(m_1\\simeq m_2:m_3\\approx 1.2:1)$ in the case of normal mass spectrum (inverted mass spectrum), and the heaviest Majorana mass turns out to be $m_3^R=1\\times 10^{15}$ GeV which just corresponds to the GUT scale.

  11. Fact #849: December 1, 2014 Midsize Hybrid Cars Averaged 51%...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    cars are for gasoline cars only. Fuel economy average is the production-weighted harmonic mean. 2014 data are preliminary. Fact 849 Dataset Supporting Information Average...

  12. Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer to Measure the Absolute Outdoor Longwave Irradiance with Traceability to International System of Units, SI

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reda, I.; Zeng, J.; Scheuch, J.; Hanssen, L.; Wilthan, B.; Myers, D.; Stoffel, T.

    2012-03-01

    This article describes a method of measuring the absolute outdoor longwave irradiance using an absolute cavity pyrgeometer (ACP), U.S. Patent application no. 13/049, 275. The ACP consists of domeless thermopile pyrgeometer, gold-plated concentrator, temperature controller, and data acquisition. The dome was removed from the pyrgeometer to remove errors associated with dome transmittance and the dome correction factor. To avoid thermal convection and wind effect errors resulting from using a domeless thermopile, the gold-plated concentrator was placed above the thermopile. The concentrator is a dual compound parabolic concentrator (CPC) with 180{sup o} view angle to measure the outdoor incoming longwave irradiance from the atmosphere. The incoming irradiance is reflected from the specular gold surface of the CPC and concentrated on the 11 mm diameter of the pyrgeometer's blackened thermopile. The CPC's interior surface design and the resulting cavitation result in a throughput value that was characterized by the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The ACP was installed horizontally outdoor on an aluminum plate connected to the temperature controller to control the pyrgeometer's case temperature. The responsivity of the pyrgeometer's thermopile detector was determined by lowering the case temperature and calculating the rate of change of the thermopile output voltage versus the changing net irradiance. The responsivity is then used to calculate the absolute atmospheric longwave irradiance with an uncertainty estimate (U{sub 95}) of {+-}3.96 W m{sup 02} with traceability to the International System of Units, SI. The measured irradiance was compared with the irradiance measured by two pyrgeometers calibrated by the World Radiation Center with traceability to the Interim World Infrared Standard Group, WISG. A total of 408 readings were collected over three different nights. The calculated irradiance measured by the ACP was 1.5 W/m{sup 2} lower than that measured by the two pyrgeometers that are traceable to WISG, with a standard deviation of {+-}0.7 W m{sup -2}. These results suggest that the ACP design might be used for addressing the need to improve the international reference for broadband outdoor longwave irradiance measurements.

  13. Three Essays on Energy Economics and Forecasting 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shin, Yoon Sung

    2012-02-14

    and producer surplus in the transport fuel market will decrease. In the third essay, the Regression - Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (REGSARIMA) model is employed to predict the impact of air temperature on daily peak load demand...

  14. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  15. Fact #744: September 10, 2012 Average New Light Vehicle Price Grows Faster than Average Used Light Vehicle Price

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    In 2011 the average used light vehicle price was 36% higher than in 1990, while the average new light vehicle price was 67% higher than it was in 1990. The average price of a used vehicle had been...

  16. The Average Mass Profile of Galaxy Clusters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    R. G. Carlberg; H. K. C. Yee; E. Ellingson; S. L. Morris; R. Abraham; P. Gravel; C. J. Pritchet; T. Smecker-Hane; F. D. A. Hartwick; J. E. Hesser; J. B. Hutchings; J. B. Oke

    1997-05-23

    The average mass density profile measured in the CNOC cluster survey is well described with the analytic form rho(r)=A/[r(r+a_rho)^2], as advocated on the basis on n-body simulations by Navarro, Frenk & White. The predicted core radii are a_rho=0.20 (in units of the radius where the mean interior density is 200 times the critical density) for an Omega=0.2 open CDM model, or a_rho=0.26 for a flat Omega=0.2 model, with little dependence on other cosmological parameters for simulations normalized to the observed cluster abundance. The dynamically derived local mass-to-light ratio, which has little radial variation, converts the observed light profile to a mass profile. We find that the scale radius of the mass distribution, 0.20<= a_rho <= 0.30 (depending on modeling details, with a 95% confidence range of 0.12-0.50), is completely consistent with the predicted values. Moreover, the profiles and total masses of the clusters as individuals can be acceptably predicted from the cluster RMS line-of-sight velocity dispersion alone. This is strong support of the hierarchical clustering theory for the formation of galaxy clusters in a cool, collisionless, dark matter dominated universe.

  17. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ? We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ? The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ? At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ? At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ? At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  18. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2009-04-06

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  19. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  20. the average weight of Connecticut River fish was considerably less (Table 1). The difference in average

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the average weight of Connecticut River fish was considerably less (Table 1). The difference in the Connecticut River basin. Fisheries (Bethesda) 7(6): 2-11. POTTER. I. C.· F. W. H. BEAMISH, AND B. G. H. Freshwater fishes of Connecticut. State Geol. Nat. Hist. Servo Conn.· Dep. Environ. Prot., Bull. 101, 134 p

  1. CloudCast: Cloud Computing for Short-term Mobile Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    of Massachusetts Amherst Abstract--Since today's weather forecasts only cover large regions every few hours algorithm for generating accurate short-term weather forecasts. We study CloudCast's design space, which One useful application is mobile weather forecasting, which provides hour-to-hour forecasts

  2. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  3. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Irradiance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Forecasting Solar Irradiance With GOES-West Satellite

  4. Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting SAMUEL RE, a need exists for accurate and updated fog and low-cloud forecasts. Couche Brouillard Eau Liquide (COBEL for the very short-term forecast of fog and low clouds. This forecast system assimilates local observations

  5. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  6. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  7. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  8. Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marseille, Gert-Jan

    of forecast failures, in particular those with large socio economic impact. Forecast failures of high- impact on their ability to improve meteorological analyses and subsequently reduce the probability of forecast failures true atmospheric state. This was generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  9. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  10. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  11. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  12. Forecasting and Risk Analysis in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hilmola, Olli-Pekka

    Forecasting is an underestimated field of research in supply chain management. Recently advanced methods are coming into use. Initial results are encouraging, but often require changes in policies for collaboration and ...

  13. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  14. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program and self Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert Oglesby Executive Director DISCLAIMER Staff for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012

  15. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  16. Multidimensional approaches to performance evaluation of competing forecasting models 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, Bing

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of my research is to contribute to the field of forecasting from a methodological perspective as well as to the field of crude oil as an application area to test the performance of my methodological contributions ...

  17. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  18. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  19. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties ...

  20. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  1. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  2. Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peyraud, Lionel

    2001-01-01

    weather patterns known to be favorable for producing fog and once it has formed, to state that it will persist unless the pattern changes. Unfortunately, while such methods have shown some success, many times they have led weather forecasters astray...

  3. Pressure Normalization of Production Rates Improves Forecasting Results 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lacayo Ortiz, Juan Manuel

    2013-08-07

    reliable production forecasting technique suited to interpret unconventional wells in specific situations such as unstable operating conditions, limited availability of production data (short production history) and high-pressure, rate-restricted wells...

  4. Forecasting Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Fourteen Countries. 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balaban, Ercan; Bayar, Asli; Faff, Robert

    2002-01-01

    This paper evaluates the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of eleven models for weekly and monthly volatility in fourteen stock markets. Volatility is defined as within-week (within-month) standard deviation of continuously ...

  5. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  6. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  7. Method and apparatus for making absolute range measurements

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Allison, Stephen W. (Knoxville, TN); Cates, Michael R. (Oak Ridge, TN); Key, William S. (Knoxville, TN); Sanders, Alvin J. (Knoxville, TN); Earl, Dennis D. (Knoxville, TN)

    1999-01-01

    This invention relates to a method and apparatus for making absolute distance or ranging measurements using Fresnel diffraction. The invention employs a source of electromagnetic radiation having a known wavelength or wavelength distribution, which sends a beam of electromagnetic radiation through an object which causes it to be split (hereinafter referred to as a "beamsplitter"), and then to a target. The beam is reflected from the target onto a screen containing an aperture spaced a known distance from the beamsplitter. The aperture is sized so as to produce a Fresnel diffraction pattern. A portion of the beam travels through the aperture to a detector, spaced a known distance from the screen. The detector detects the central intensity of the beam. The distance from the object which causes the beam to be split to the target can then be calculated based upon the known wavelength, aperture radius, beam intensity, and distance from the detector to the screen. Several apparatus embodiments are disclosed for practicing the method embodiments of the present invention.

  8. Method and apparatus for making absolute range measurements

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Allison, S.W.; Cates, M.R.; Key, W.S.; Sanders, A.J.; Earl, D.D.

    1999-06-22

    This invention relates to a method and apparatus for making absolute distance or ranging measurements using Fresnel diffraction. The invention employs a source of electromagnetic radiation having a known wavelength or wavelength distribution, which sends a beam of electromagnetic radiation through an object which causes it to be split (hereinafter referred to as a beam splitter''), and then to a target. The beam is reflected from the target onto a screen containing an aperture spaced a known distance from the beam splitter. The aperture is sized so as to produce a Fresnel diffraction pattern. A portion of the beam travels through the aperture to a detector, spaced a known distance from the screen. The detector detects the central intensity of the beam. The distance from the object which causes the beam to be split to the target can then be calculated based upon the known wavelength, aperture radius, beam intensity, and distance from the detector to the screen. Several apparatus embodiments are disclosed for practicing the method embodiments of the present invention. 9 figs.

  9. Revised absolute amplitude calibration of the LOPES experiment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Link, K; Apel, W D; Arteaga-Velázquez, J C; Bähren, L; Bekk, K; Bertaina, M; Biermann, P L; Blümer, J; Bozdog, H; Brancus, I M; Cantoni, E; Chiavassa, A; Daumiller, K; de Souza, V; Di Pierro, F; Doll, P; Engel, R; Falcke, H; Fuchs, B; Gemmeke, H; Grupen, C; Haungs, A; Heck, D; Hiller, R; Hörandel, J R; Horneffer, A; Huber, D; Isar, P G; Kampert, K-H; Kang, D; Krömer, O; Kuijpers, J; ?uczak, P; Ludwig, M; Mathes, H J; Melissas, M; Morello, C; Oehlschläger, J; Palmieri, N; Pierog, T; Rautenberg, J; Rebel, H; Roth, M; Rühle, C; Saftoiu, A; Schieler, H; Schmidt, A; Schoo, S; Schröder, F G; Sima, O; Toma, G; Trinchero, G C; Weindl, A; Wochele, J; Zabierowski, J; Zensus, J A

    2015-01-01

    One of the main aims of the LOPES experiment was the evaluation of the absolute amplitude of the radio signal of air showers. This is of special interest since the radio technique offers the possibility for an independent and highly precise determination of the energy scale of cosmic rays on the basis of signal predictions from Monte Carlo simulations. For the calibration of the amplitude measured by LOPES we used an external source. Previous comparisons of LOPES measurements and simulations of the radio signal amplitude predicted by CoREAS revealed a discrepancy of the order of a factor of two. A re-measurement of the reference calibration source, now performed for the free field, was recently performed by the manufacturer. The updated calibration values lead to a lowering of the reconstructed electric field measured by LOPES by a factor of $2.6 \\pm 0.2$ and therefore to a significantly better agreement with CoREAS simulations. We discuss the updated calibration and its impact on the LOPES analysis results.

  10. Revised absolute amplitude calibration of the LOPES experiment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    K. Link; T. Huege; W. D. Apel; J. C. Arteaga-Velázquez; L. Bähren; K. Bekk; M. Bertaina; P. L. Biermann; J. Blümer; H. Bozdog; I. M. Brancus; E. Cantoni; A. Chiavassa; K. Daumiller; V. de Souza; F. Di Pierro; P. Doll; R. Engel; H. Falcke; B. Fuchs; H. Gemmeke; C. Grupen; A. Haungs; D. Heck; R. Hiller; J. R. Hörandel; A. Horneffer; D. Huber; P. G. Isar; K-H. Kampert; D. Kang; O. Krömer; J. Kuijpers; P. ?uczak; M. Ludwig; H. J. Mathes; M. Melissas; C. Morello; J. Oehlschläger; N. Palmieri; T. Pierog; J. Rautenberg; H. Rebel; M. Roth; C. Rühle; A. Saftoiu; H. Schieler; A. Schmidt; S. Schoo; F. G. Schröder; O. Sima; G. Toma; G. C. Trinchero; A. Weindl; J. Wochele; J. Zabierowski; J. A. Zensus

    2015-08-14

    One of the main aims of the LOPES experiment was the evaluation of the absolute amplitude of the radio signal of air showers. This is of special interest since the radio technique offers the possibility for an independent and highly precise determination of the energy scale of cosmic rays on the basis of signal predictions from Monte Carlo simulations. For the calibration of the amplitude measured by LOPES we used an external source. Previous comparisons of LOPES measurements and simulations of the radio signal amplitude predicted by CoREAS revealed a discrepancy of the order of a factor of two. A re-measurement of the reference calibration source, now performed for the free field, was recently performed by the manufacturer. The updated calibration values lead to a lowering of the reconstructed electric field measured by LOPES by a factor of $2.6 \\pm 0.2$ and therefore to a significantly better agreement with CoREAS simulations. We discuss the updated calibration and its impact on the LOPES analysis results.

  11. Absolute Values of Neutrino Masses implied by the Seesaw Mechanism

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    H. Tsujimoto

    2005-12-12

    It is found that the seesaw mechanism not only explain the smallness of neutrino masses but also account for the large mixing angles simultaneously, even if the unification of the neutrino Dirac mass matrix with that of up-type quark sector is realized. We show that provided the Majorana masses have hierarchical structure as is seen in the up-type quark sector and all mass matrices are real, we can reduce the information about the absolute values of neutrino masses through the data set of neutrino experiments. Especially for $\\theta_{13}=0$, we found that the neutrino masses are decided as $m_1:m_2:m_3\\approx 1:3:17$ or $1:50:250$ ($m_1\\simeq m_2:m_3\\approx 3:1$ or $12:1$) in the case of normal mass spectrum (inverted mass spectrum), and the greatest Majorana mass turns out to be $m_3^R=1\\times 10^{15}$ GeV which just corresponds to the GUT scale. Including the decoupling effects caused by three singlet neutrinos, we also perform a renormalization group analysis to fix the neutrino Yukawa coupling matrix at low energy.

  12. Absolute hydrogen determination in coal-derived heavy distillate samples

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kottenstette, R.J.; Schneider, D.A.; Loy, D.A.

    1994-06-01

    Organic elemental hydrogen analysis is routinely performed with an automated analyzer having a high temperature combustion zone that is connected to a detector which measures the response of the product water. With the advent of instrumental electronics, automated microanalysis gradually replaced the gravimetric techniques mainly because of increased analysis speed. Modern automated organic elemental analysis consists of combusting the sample in the presence of a solid oxidant and sweeping the products into a thermal conductivity of infrared detector [4,5]. An alternative technique for the detection of hydrogen is to react the product water with carbonyldiimidazole to generate a quantitative amount of carbon dioxide which is measured by a coulometric tritration [6]. The development of Proton Nuclear Magnetic Nuclear Resonance Spectroscopy has led to the description and qualitative classification of hydrogen in organic compounds. These techniques have been especially helpful in describing hydrogen as it is classified into aliphatic, aromatic and hydroaromatic groupings [1,2,3]. In addition, low resolution proton {sup 1}H-NMR has been sucessfully used to determine absolute amounts of hydrogen in a variety of petroleum fractions [7,8]. Our technique involves simple integration of high resolution {sup 1}H-NMR spectra with careful attention given to sample preparation and spectral integration.

  13. Forecasting the probability of forest fires in Northeast Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wadleigh, Stuart Allen

    1972-01-01

    FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Submit ted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE... December 1972 Major Subject: Meteorology FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Approved as to style and content by: ( irman of ee) (Head of Depar nt) (Member) (Member) December 1972 c...

  14. Forecasting potential project risks through leading indicators to project outcome 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Ji Won

    2007-09-17

    for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 2007 Major Subject: Civil Engineering FORECASTING POTENTIAL PROJECT RISKS THROUGH LEADING INDICATORS TO PROJECT OUTCOME A Thesis by JI WON CHOI... Guikema Head of Department, David Rosowsky May 2007 Major Subject: Civil Engineering iii ABSTRACT Forecasting Potential Project Risks through Leading Indicators to Project Outcome. (May 2007) Ji Won Choi, B.S., Han-Yang University...

  15. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  16. Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Douches, David S.

    Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database Kathleen Baker a, , Paul Roehsner a , Thomas Lake b , Douglas Rivet

  17. Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

    2005-09-26

    Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

  18. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    2000-01-01

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  19. THE PROBABILITIES OF ABSOLUTE RUIN IN THE RENEWAL RISK MODEL WITH CONSTANT FORCE OF INTEREST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tang, Qihe

    THE PROBABILITIES OF ABSOLUTE RUIN IN THE RENEWAL RISK MODEL WITH CONSTANT FORCE OF INTEREST of ...nite- and in...nite-time absolute ruin in the renewal risk model with constant premium rate; Convolution equiva- lence; Heavy tails; Renewal risk model 1. Introduction In this paper we address

  20. Absolute magnitudes for late-type dwarf stars for Sloan photometry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. Bilir; S. Karaali; S. Tuncel

    2005-03-18

    We present a new formula for absolute magnitude determination for late-type dwarf stars as a function of (g-r) and (r-i) for Sloan photometry. The absolute magnitudes estimated by this approach are brighter than those estimated by colour-magnitude diagrams, and they reduce the luminosity function rather close to the luminosity function of Hipparcos.

  1. Free volume hypothetical scanning molecular dynamics method for the absolute free energy of liquids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meirovitch, Hagai

    Free volume hypothetical scanning molecular dynamics method for the absolute free energy of liquids for calculating the absolute entropy, S, and free energy, F, by analyzing Boltzmann samples obtained by Monte energy evaluation is a central issue in atomistic modeling.1­5 When the free energy is known, equilibrium

  2. A simulation method for calculating the absolute entropy and free energy of fluids: Application to

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meirovitch, Hagai

    A simulation method for calculating the absolute entropy and free energy of fluids: Application is a general approach for calculating the absolute entropy and free energy by analyzing Boltzmann samples and the TIP3P model of water, and very good results for the free energy are obtained, as compared with results

  3. Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

    2011-09-29

    This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role of forecasts for irrigation scheduling in a more effective way.

  4. The extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS): a cosmological forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Gong-Bo; Ross, Ashley J; Shandera, Sarah; Percival, Will J; Dawson, Kyle S; Kneib, Jean-Paul; Myers, Adam D; Brownstein, Joel R; Comparat, Johan; Delubac, Timothée; Gao, Pengyuan; Hojjati, Alireza; Koyama, Kazuya; McBride, Cameron K; Meza, Andrés; Newman, Jeffrey A; Palanque-Delabrouille, Nathalie; Pogosian, Levon; Prada, Francisco; Rossi, Graziano; Schneider, Donald P; Seo, Hee-Jong; Tao, Charling; Wang, Dandan; Yèche, Christophe; Zhang, Hanyu; Zhang, Yuecheng; Zhou, Xu; Zhu, Fangzhou; Zou, Hu

    2015-01-01

    We present a science forecast for the eBOSS survey, part of the SDSS-IV project, which is a spectroscopic survey using multiple tracers of large-scale structure, including luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission line galaxies (ELGs) and quasars (both as a direct probe of structure and through the Ly-$\\alpha$ forest). Focusing on discrete tracers, we forecast the expected accuracy of the baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO), the redshift-space distortion (RSD) measurements, the $f_{\\rm NL}$ parameter quantifying the primordial non-Gaussianity, the dark energy and modified gravity parameters. We also use the line-of-sight clustering in the Ly-$\\alpha$ forest to constrain the total neutrino mass. We find that eBOSS LRGs ($0.60.6$), ELGs ($0.6averaged BAO distance measurements. Using the same samples, the constraint on $f\\sigma_8$ is expected to be 2.5%, 3.3% and 2.8...

  5. Results from the Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process. Part II: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schultz, David

    : Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters NEIL A. STUART* NOAA/National Weather Service of Applied Research Associates, Fairborn, Ohio In Preparation for Submission to Forecasters Forum, Weather and Forecasting 30 June 2006 Corresponding author address: Neil A. Stuart, National Weather Service, 10009 General

  6. Strong thermal leptogenesis and the absolute neutrino mass scale

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bari, Pasquale Di; King, Sophie E.; Fiorentin, Michele Re, E-mail: pdb1d08@soton.ac.uk, E-mail: sk1806@soton.ac.uk, E-mail: m.re-fiorentin@soton.ac.uk [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom)

    2014-03-01

    We show that successful strong thermal leptogenesis, where the final asymmetry is independent of the initial conditions and in particular a large pre-existing asymmetry is efficiently washed-out, favours values of the lightest neutrino mass m{sub 1}?>10 meV for normal ordering (NO) and m{sub 1}?>3 meV for inverted ordering (IO) for models with orthogonal matrix entries respecting |?{sub ij}{sup 2}|?<2. We show analytically why lower values of m{sub 1} require a higher level of fine tuning in the seesaw formula and/or in the flavoured decay parameters (in the electronic for NO, in the muonic for IO). We also show how this constraint exists thanks to the measured values of the neutrino mixing angles and could be tightened by a future determination of the Dirac phase. Our analysis also allows us to place a more stringent constraint for a specific model or class of models, such as SO(10)-inspired models, and shows that some models cannot realise strong thermal leptogenesis for any value of m{sub 1}. A scatter plot analysis fully supports the analytical results. We also briefly discuss the interplay with absolute neutrino mass scale experiments concluding that they will be able in the coming years to either corner strong thermal leptogenesis or find positive signals pointing to a non-vanishing m{sub 1}. Since the constraint is much stronger for NO than for IO, it is very important that new data from planned neutrino oscillation experiments will be able to solve the ambiguity.

  7. Fact #671: April 18, 2011 Average Truck Speeds | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    2011 Average Truck Speeds The Federal Highway Administration studies traffic volume and flow on major truck routes by tracking more than 500,000 trucks. The average speed of trucks...

  8. Fact #889: September 7, 2015 Average Diesel Price Lower than...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    9: September 7, 2015 Average Diesel Price Lower than Gasoline for the First Time in Six Years Fact 889: September 7, 2015 Average Diesel Price Lower than Gasoline for the First...

  9. Fact #614: March 15, 2010 Average Age of Household Vehicles

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The average age of household vehicles has increased from 6.6 years in 1977 to 9.2 years in 2009. Pickup trucks have the oldest average age in every year listed. Sport utility vehicles (SUVs), first...

  10. Averaging top quark results in Run 2 M. Strovink

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Strovink, Mark

    average (cont'd) The pie chart shows the relative weights of the five input measurements in the world

  11. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore »to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  12. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  13. Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wirosoetisno, Djoko

    Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the case of the North. (2015) Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the case of the North;Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging:1 the case of the North Atlantic jet

  14. Engineering Grads Earn The Most Major Average Salary

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shahabi, Cyrus

    Engineering Grads Earn The Most Table Major Average Salary Offer Petroleum Engineering $86/Aeronautical/Astronautical Engineering $57,231 Information Sciences & Systems $54,038 Source: Winter 2010 Salary Survey, National was the fourth most lucrative degree, with graduates starting at $61,205 on average. The average salary

  15. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  16. The absolute magnitude distribution of Kuiper Belt objects

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fraser, Wesley C. [Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics, 5071 West Saanich Road, Victoria, BC V9E 2E7 (Canada); Brown, Michael E. [Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, 1200 East California Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Morbidelli, Alessandro [Laboratoire Lagrange, UMR7293, Université de Nice Sophia-Antipolis, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, BP 4229, F-06304 Nice (France); Parker, Alex [Department of Astronomy, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Batygin, Konstantin, E-mail: wesley.fraser@nrc.ca [Institute for Theory and Computation, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, MS 51, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2014-02-20

    Here we measure the absolute magnitude distributions (H-distribution) of the dynamically excited and quiescent (hot and cold) Kuiper Belt objects (KBOs), and test if they share the same H-distribution as the Jupiter Trojans. From a compilation of all useable ecliptic surveys, we find that the KBO H-distributions are well described by broken power laws. The cold population has a bright-end slope, ?{sub 1}=1.5{sub ?0.2}{sup +0.4}, and break magnitude, H{sub B}=6.9{sub ?0.2}{sup +0.1} (r'-band). The hot population has a shallower bright-end slope of, ?{sub 1}=0.87{sub ?0.2}{sup +0.07}, and break magnitude H{sub B}=7.7{sub ?0.5}{sup +1.0}. Both populations share similar faint-end slopes of ?{sub 2} ? 0.2. We estimate the masses of the hot and cold populations are ?0.01 and ?3 × 10{sup –4} M {sub ?}. The broken power-law fit to the Trojan H-distribution has ?{sub 1} = 1.0 ± 0.2, ?{sub 2} = 0.36 ± 0.01, and H {sub B} = 8.3. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test reveals that the probability that the Trojans and cold KBOs share the same parent H-distribution is less than 1 in 1000. When the bimodal albedo distribution of the hot objects is accounted for, there is no evidence that the H-distributions of the Trojans and hot KBOs differ. Our findings are in agreement with the predictions of the Nice model in terms of both mass and H-distribution of the hot and Trojan populations. Wide-field survey data suggest that the brightest few hot objects, with H{sub r{sup ?}}?3, do not fall on the steep power-law slope of fainter hot objects. Under the standard hierarchical model of planetesimal formation, it is difficult to account for the similar break diameters of the hot and cold populations given the low mass of the cold belt.

  17. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  18. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  19. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  20. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  1. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  2. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  3. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  4. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  5. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  6. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    the AEO 2005 reference case oil price forecast and NYMEX oibasis-adjusted NYMEX crude oil futures con tracts fo r 2010more than the reference case oil price forecast for that

  7. Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bush, Sarah, 1973-

    2003-01-01

    Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

  8. ESTIMATING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOCIETAL IMPACTS USING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    effort to estimate potential severe weather societal impacts based on a combination of probabilistic forecasts and high resolution population data. For equal severe weather threat, events that occur over1 ESTIMATING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOCIETAL IMPACTS USING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ISSUED

  9. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01

    0400Z on the 18 th the wind is forecast at 15Knots blowingforecast for the day for the quarter-hour period , representing the windthe forecast is valid. The TAF predicts the wind speed, wind

  10. Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newton, Nathan J.

    2013-06-26

    This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how...

  11. Error growth in poor ECMWF forecasts over the contiguous United States 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modlin, Norman Ray

    1993-01-01

    Successive improvements to the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting model have resulted in improved forecast performance over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). While the overall performance of the model ...

  12. Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater

  13. A supply forecasting model for Zimbabwe's corn sector: a time series and structural analysis 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Makaudze, Ephias

    1993-01-01

    Board's financial resource needs. Thus, the corn supply forecasts are important information used by the government for contingency planning, decision-making, policy-formulation and implementation. As such, the need for accurate forecasts is obvious...

  14. Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Statton, James Cody

    2012-07-16

    . This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%....

  15. Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

    2002-01-01

    Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

  16. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Figure 9: Two Alternative Price Forecasts (denoted by openComparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast toNYMEX Futures Prices Date: December 6, 2006 Introduction On

  17. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review. Int. J.beam and global solar radiation data. Solar Energy , 81:768–forecasting of solar radiation data: a review. International

  18. An Intelligent Solar Powered Battery Buffered EV Charging Station with Solar Electricity Forecasting and EV Charging Load Projection Functions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Hengbing; Burke, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    power source from inherent intermittent solar PV power.B. Solar PV Electricity Forecasting Fig. 1. Charging stationForecasting Power Output of Solar Photovoltaic System Using

  19. An inequality for the trace of matrix products, using absolute values

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bernhard Baumgartner

    2011-09-01

    The absolute value of matrices is used in order to give inequalities for the trace of products. An application gives a very short proof of the tracial matrix Hoelder inequality

  20. Primary crossflow vortices, secondary absolute instabilities and their control in the rotating-disk boundary layer

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Primary crossflow vortices, secondary absolute instabilities and their control in the rotating patterns of crossflow vortices are derived by employing asymptotic techniques. This approach accounts three-dimensional velocity profiles, are subject to inviscid crossflow in- stabilities and rapidly

  1. Orbit-averaged guiding-center Fokker-Planck operator

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brizard, A. J. [Department of Chemistry and Physics, Saint Michael's College, Colchester, Vermont 05439 (United States); Decker, J.; Peysson, Y.; Duthoit, F.-X. [CEA, IRFM, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance F-13108 (France)

    2009-10-15

    A general orbit-averaged guiding-center Fokker-Planck operator suitable for the numerical analysis of transport processes in axisymmetric magnetized plasmas is presented. The orbit-averaged guiding-center operator describes transport processes in a three-dimensional guiding-center invariant space: the orbit-averaged magnetic-flux invariant {psi}, the minimum-B pitch-angle coordinate {xi}{sub 0}, and the momentum magnitude p.

  2. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  3. "Table 2. Real Average Annual Coal Transportation Costs, By Primary...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Real Average Annual Coal Transportation Costs, By Primary Transport Mode and Supply Region" "(2013 dollars per ton)" "Coal Supply Region",2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "Railroad"...

  4. LOW-HIGH VALUES FOR PETROLEUM AVERAGE INVENTORY RANGES (MILLION...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION LOW-HIGH VALUES FOR PETROLEUM AVERAGE INVENTORY RANGES (MILLION BARRELS) FILE UPDATED April 2004 Line Month Low High Number Product Name Geography...

  5. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Instituto de Sistemas e Robotica

    Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Submitted in partial fulfillment;iii Abstract Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts prices. Wind power forecast errors for aggregated wind farms are often modeled with Gaussian

  6. Short-Term Load Forecasting at the Local Level using Smart Meter Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tronci, Enrico

    ]; electric vehicle integration [8]; and microgrid and virtual power plant applications [7], [11]. In addition, forecast uncertainty, power demand. I. INTRODUCTION Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is the forecasting is considered to be critical for power system operation, particularly for energy balancing, energy market

  7. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  8. Forecasting the Hourly Ontario Energy Price by Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cañizares, Claudio A.

    for forecasting the Spanish electricity market prices. On the other hand, ARIMA, dynamic regression and transfer been used to forecast the Spanish market prices [7], [9], Californian market prices [9], Leipzig power have been used for forecasting the Spanish and Californian market prices [11] and the PJM market prices

  9. Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds THIERRY BERGOT Abstract--Short-term forecasting of fog is a difficult issue which can have a large societal impact. Fog of the life cycle of fog (onset, development and dissipation) up to +6 h. The error on the forecast onset

  10. Atmospheric Environment 39 (2005) 13731382 A hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate and forecast ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Irwin, Mark E.

    2005-01-01

    conditional on observed (or forecasted) meteorology including temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind speed, defining the spatial­temporal extent of episodes of dangerous air quality, forecasting urban and areaAtmospheric Environment 39 (2005) 1373­1382 A hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate and forecast

  11. A Comparison of Bayesian and Conditional Density Models in Probabilistic Ozone Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    A Comparison of Bayesian and Conditional Density Models in Probabilistic Ozone Forecasting Song Cai to provide predictive distributions of daily maximum surface level ozone concentrations. Five forecast models forecasts for extreme events, namely poor air quality events defined as having ozone concentration 82 ppb

  12. Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning Vivien Mallet,1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms Vivien Mallet,1,2 Gilles Stoltz,3; published 13 March 2009. [1] We apply machine learning algorithms to perform sequential aggregation of ozone forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system

  13. Bias reduction in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts based on GOES satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kurapov, Alexander

    Bias reduction in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts based on GOES satellite data Based on comparisons with infrared (GOES) and microwave (AMSE-R) satellite data, our coastal ocean forecast model set circulation model and satellite data helps to improve forecasting of ocean conditions (esp. currents and SST

  14. Short Term Electricity Price Forecasting in the Nordic Region Anders Lund Eriksrud

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lavaei, Javad

    Short Term Electricity Price Forecasting in the Nordic Region Anders Lund Eriksrud May 11, 2014 Abstract This paper presents a survey of electricity price forecasting for the Nordic region, and performs that time series models more appropriate for forecasting electricity prices, compared to machine learning

  15. Influence of Spikes in the Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Friedl, Herwig

    Influence of Spikes in the Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting Vika Koban, Milos Pantos of electricity price under normal conditions with the spike time series caused by extreme conditions in order to obtain a better forecast of the spot price. Short term electricity price forecasting has become

  16. Detrending Daily Natural Gas Consumption Series to Improve Short-Term Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    Detrending Daily Natural Gas Consumption Series to Improve Short-Term Forecasts Ronald H. Brown1 that allows long-term natural gas demand signals to be used effect- ively to generate high quality short-term natural gas demand forecasting models. Short data sets in natural gas forecasting inadequately represent

  17. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    in a wide range of energy systems, including forecasting demand, renewable generation, and electricityLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random demonstrated that in the context of electrical demand and wind power, probabilistic forecasts can offer

  18. Application of a new phenomenological coronal mass ejection model to space weather forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howard, Tim

    to space weather forecasting T. A. Howard1 and S. J. Tappin2 Received 15 October 2009; revised 27 April with the Earth. Hence the model can be used for space weather forecasting. We present a preliminary evaluation to fully validate it for integration with existing tools for space weather forecasting. Citation: Howard, T

  19. Reprinted from: Proceedings, International Workshop on Observations/Forecasting of Meso-scale Severe Weather and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    -scale Severe Weather and Technology of Reduction of Relevant Disasters (Tokyo, Japan), 22-26 February 1993, 181 on the ingredients for particular severe weather events, a focus is provided for the forecasting process of forecasters is discussed also, as a necessary component in a balanced approach to weather forecasting

  20. Production Forecast, Analysis and Simulation of Eagle Ford Shale Oil 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alotaibi, Basel Z S Z J

    2014-12-02

    is to generate field-wide production forecast of the Eagle Ford Shale (EFS). This study considered oil production of the EFS only. More than 6 thousand oil wells were put online in the EFS basin between 2008 and December 2013. The method started by generating...

  1. Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garulli, Andrea

    profiles, raise major challenges to wind power integration into the electricity grid. In this work we studyOptimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts Antonio that the inherent variability in wind power generation and the related difficulty in predicting future generation

  2. Forecasting stock prices using Genetic Programming and Chance Discovery

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernandez, Thomas

    finance. GAs are algorithms that emulate evolution and natural selection to solve a problem. A populationForecasting stock prices using Genetic Programming and Chance Discovery Alma Lilia Garcia to financial problems. In particular, the use of Genetic Algorithms (GAs), for financial purposes, has

  3. Power Forecasting for Plug-in Electric Vehicles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lavaei, Javad

    Power Forecasting for Plug-in Electric Vehicles with Statistic Simulations Guangbin Li (gl2423) #12 of the most heated-discussed issues. Energy shortage and environment pollution are the main bottleneck the tradeoff between energy supply and environment pollution. As the international oil price was continuously

  4. Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Islam, M. Saif

    is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey on your needs for information on solar energy resources and forecasting. This survey is conducted with the California Solar Energy Collaborative (CSEC) and the California Solar Initiative (CSI) our objective

  5. Utilize cloud computing to support dust storm forecasting Qunying Huanga

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Songqing

    storm forecasting operational system should support a disruptive fashion by scaling up to enable high to save energy and costs. With the capability of providing a large, elastic, and virtualized pool and property damages since 1995 (Figure 1). Deaths and injuries are usually caused by car accidents, because

  6. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  7. MET 416: TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING Spring Semester 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    current (nowcasting) and expected weather, using all available real-time operational weather data Exam 4/9 Summer trade-wind weather based on HaRP 4/11-16 Large-scale influences, Diurnal cycle to the development of tropical storm systems and mesoscale weather. Lectures will include a forecasting perspective

  8. A Hierarchical Pattern Learning Framework for Forecasting Extreme Weather Events

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ding, Wei

    . Frequent pattern-based data representations have been used in various studies for abstracting climaticA Hierarchical Pattern Learning Framework for Forecasting Extreme Weather Events Dawei Wang, Wei@cs.umb.edu Abstract--Extreme weather events, like extreme rainfalls, are severe weather hazards and also the triggers

  9. ARM Processes and Their Modeling and Forecasting Methodology Benjamin Melamed

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chapter 73 ARM Processes and Their Modeling and Forecasting Methodology Benjamin Melamed Abstract The class of ARM (Autoregressive Modular) processes is a class of stochastic processes, defined by a non- linear autoregressive scheme with modulo-1 reduction and additional transformations. ARM processes

  10. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /Individuals Providing Comments California Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition/ Mike Eaves League of Women VotersCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY AND TRANSPORTATION DIVISION B. B. Blevins Executive Director DISCLAIMER This report was prepared by a California

  11. Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ketter, Wolfgang

    Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges Wolfgang Ketter , John Collins. of Mgmt., Erasmus University Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Minnesota Dept,gini,schrater}@cs.umn.edu, agupta@csom.umn.edu Abstract We present basic building blocks of an agent that can use observable market

  12. Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ketter, Wolfgang

    Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges Wolfgang Ketter # , John Collins, Rotterdam Sch. of Mgmt., Erasmus University + Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, University wketter@rsm.nl, {jcollins,gini,schrater}@cs.umn.edu, agupta@csom.umn.edu Abstract We present basic

  13. URBAN OZONE CONCENTRATION FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN CORSICA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Perceptron; Ozone concentration. 1. Introduction Tropospheric ozone is a major air pollution problem, both, Ajaccio, France, e-mail: balu@univ-corse.fr Abstract: Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air

  14. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  15. A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts Lin Wu,1,2 V. Mallet,1,2 M assimilation schemes with the aim of designing suitable assimilation algorithms for short- range ozone but stable systems with high uncertainties (e.g., over 20% for ozone daily peaks (Hanna et al., 1998; Mallet

  16. 1. Introduction Users of weather forecasts, particularly paying cus-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1. Introduction Users of weather forecasts, particularly paying cus- tomers, are operating within Kingdom out of a total budget of approximately £140 million for winter road maintenance. It is difficult rely on a simple set of statistics provided by the weather service providers. The current guidance

  17. Forecasting Hourly Electricity Load Profile Using Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koprinska, Irena

    Forecasting Hourly Electricity Load Profile Using Neural Networks Mashud Rana and Irena Koprinska--We present INN, a new approach for predicting the hourly electricity load profile for the next day from a time series of previous electricity loads. It uses an iterative methodology to make the predictions

  18. Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Imperial College, London

    Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes Marcel C. Guenther and Jeremy T. The global emergence of city bicycle hire schemes has re- cently received a lot of attention of future bicycle migration trends, as these assist service providers to ensure availability of bicycles

  19. Numerical Weather Forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L.

    1999-01-26

    Facilities such as the Savannah River Site (SRS), which contain the potential for hazardous atmospheric releases, rely on the predictive capabilities of dispersion models to assess possible emergency response actions. The operational design in relation to domain size and forecast time is presented, along with verification of model results over extended time periods with archived surface observations.

  20. Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuhl, Michael E.

    Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks Matthew J. Daniels, NY 14623 Elisabeth Hager Hager Consulting Pittsford, NY 14534 Abstract The availability of beds is a critical factor for decision-making in hospitals. Bed availability (or alternatively the bed occupancy

  1. FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    a limited evaluation of its performance against ground-measured and satellite-derived irradiances in AlbanyFORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL NREL, 1617 Cole Blvd. Golden, CO 80841 stephen_wilcox@nrel.gov Antoine Zelenka Meteosuisse

  2. Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

  3. Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

  4. Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cerpa, Alberto E.

    Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

  5. The global warming signal is the average of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jones, Peter JS

    The global warming signal is the average of years 70-80 in the increasing CO2 run minus the average represent significant uncertainty in the global warming signal (Fig. 5). The differences at high latitudes, uncertainty in the isopycnal diffusivity causes uncertainty of up to 50% in the global warming signal

  6. Morgantown Slightly Exceeds National Average for Cost of Living

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    (an index value of 100 reflects the national average). The index expresses the cost of living, health care, and miscellaneous goods and services. The index is designed to reflect the cost of living Relative to National Average by Category In Figure 2, we illustrate how the cost of living index has

  7. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  8. Assessing forecast uncertainties in a VECX model for Switzerland: an exercise in forecast combination across models and observation windows

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin; Pesaran, M. Hashem

    horizons of up to eight quarters ahead since this is the rele- vant time horizon for central banks when setting interest rates. Table 6 shows the RMSFE, the bias and the hit rate of forecasts based on the VECX*(2,2) model for the longest estimation window...

  9. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  10. Assessment and added value estimation of an ensemble approach with a focus on global radiation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the high-resolution ensemble weather prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS is achieved with the perspective of using it for renewable energy applications. The performance of the ensemble forecast is explored focusing on global radiation, the main weather variable affecting solar power production, and on quantile forecasts, key probabilistic products for the energy sector. First, the ability of the ensemble system to capture and resolve the observation variability is assessed. Secondly, the potential benefit of the ensemble forecasting strategy compared to a single forecast approach is quantitatively estimated. A new metric called ensemble added value is proposed, aiming at a fair comparison of an ensemble forecast with a single forecast, when optimized to the users' needs. Hourly mean forecasts are verified against pyranometer measurements over verification periods covering 2013. The results show in particular that the added value of the ensemble approach is season-dependent and increases with the ...

  11. FOCI Prediction -1998 -Average The Fisheries-Oceanography Coordinated Investigations (FOCI) program annually makes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    This forecast is based on four data sources, three of which involve purely physical properties, and one of which involves a biological survey: 1. observed Kodiak rainfall, 2. wind mixing energy at [57N, 156W] computed from a survey conducted during late May 1998. Each source provided a recruitment forecast

  12. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatist...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    permission. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatist... Yulia Gel; Adrian

  13. Fact #870: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Progress, 1978-2014 The Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) is the sales-weighted harmonic mean fuel economy of a manufacturer's fleet of new cars or light trucks in a certain...

  14. Fact #624: May 24, 2010 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    by the fleet of each manufacturer will be determined by computing the sales-weighted harmonic average of the targets applicable to each of the manufacturer's passenger cars and...

  15. On the Choice of Average Solar Zenith Angle

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cronin, Timothy W.

    Idealized climate modeling studies often choose to neglect spatiotemporal variations in solar radiation, but doing so comes with an important decision about how to average solar radiation in space and time. Since both ...

  16. Does anyone have access to 2012 average residential rates by...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Does anyone have access to 2012 average residential rates by utility company? I'm seeing an inconsistency between the OpenEI website and EIA 861 data set. Home > Groups > Utility...

  17. INDIVIDUAL REFORM ELEMENTS .63Average course exam score

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Colorado at Boulder, University of

    INDIVIDUAL REFORM ELEMENTS .63Average course exam score .11In class clicker score .02Lecture: · Correlations with effort/curricular elements are positive but not high, indicating no individual course reform

  18. Fact #889: September 7, 2015 Average Diesel Price Lower than...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Average Diesel Price Lower than Gasoline for the First Time in Six Years fotw889web.xlsx More Documents & Publications Fact 859 February 9, 2015 Excess Supply is the Most Recent...

  19. Bounded Parameter Markov Decision Processes with Average Reward Criterion

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tewari, Ambuj

    Bounded Parameter Markov Decision Processes with Average Reward Criterion Ambuj Tewari1 and Peter L, pp. 263­277, 2007. c Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007 #12;264 A. Tewari and P.L. Bartlett

  20. Averaged null energy condition violation in a conformally flat spacetime

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Urban, Douglas; Olum, Ken D.

    2010-01-15

    We show that the averaged null energy condition can be violated by a conformally coupled scalar field in a conformally flat spacetime in 3+1 dimensions. The violation is dependent on the quantum state and can be made as large as desired. It does not arise from the presence of anomalies, although anomalous violations are also possible. Since all geodesics in conformally flat spacetimes are achronal, the achronal averaged null energy condition is likewise violated.

  1. Flavor Physics Data from the Heavy Flavor Averaging Group (HFAG)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    The Heavy Flavor Averaging Group (HFAG) was established at the May 2002 Flavor Physics and CP Violation Conference in Philadelphia, and continues the LEP Heavy Flavor Steering Group's tradition of providing regular updates to the world averages of heavy flavor quantities. Data are provided by six subgroups that each focus on a different set of heavy flavor measurements: B lifetimes and oscillation parameters, Semi-leptonic B decays, Rare B decays, Unitarity triangle parameters, B decays to charm final states, and Charm Physics.

  2. STANDARDIZING TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA ABSOLUTE MAGNITUDES USING GAUSSIAN PROCESS DATA REGRESSION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, A. G.; Aldering, G.; Aragon, C.; Bailey, S.; Childress, M.; Fakhouri, H. K.; Nordin, J. [Physics Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)] [Physics Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Thomas, R. C. [Computational Cosmology Center, Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road MS 50B-4206, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)] [Computational Cosmology Center, Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road MS 50B-4206, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Antilogus, P.; Bongard, S.; Canto, A.; Cellier-Holzem, F.; Guy, J. [Laboratoire de Physique Nucleaire et des Hautes Energies, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie Paris 6, Universite Denis Diderot Paris 7, CNRS-IN2P3, 4 place Jussieu, F-75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France)] [Laboratoire de Physique Nucleaire et des Hautes Energies, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie Paris 6, Universite Denis Diderot Paris 7, CNRS-IN2P3, 4 place Jussieu, F-75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Baltay, C. [Department of Physics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06250-8121 (United States)] [Department of Physics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06250-8121 (United States); Buton, C.; Kerschhaggl, M.; Kowalski, M. [Physikalisches Institut, Universitaet Bonn, Nussallee 12, D-53115 Bonn (Germany)] [Physikalisches Institut, Universitaet Bonn, Nussallee 12, D-53115 Bonn (Germany); Chotard, N. [Tsinghua Center for Astrophysics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)] [Tsinghua Center for Astrophysics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Copin, Y.; Gangler, E. [Universite de Lyon, F-69622 Lyon (France)] [Universite de Lyon, F-69622 Lyon (France); and others

    2013-04-01

    We present a novel class of models for Type Ia supernova time-evolving spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and absolute magnitudes: they are each modeled as stochastic functions described by Gaussian processes. The values of the SED and absolute magnitudes are defined through well-defined regression prescriptions, so that data directly inform the models. As a proof of concept, we implement a model for synthetic photometry built from the spectrophotometric time series from the Nearby Supernova Factory. Absolute magnitudes at peak B brightness are calibrated to 0.13 mag in the g band and to as low as 0.09 mag in the z = 0.25 blueshifted i band, where the dispersion includes contributions from measurement uncertainties and peculiar velocities. The methodology can be applied to spectrophotometric time series of supernovae that span a range of redshifts to simultaneously standardize supernovae together with fitting cosmological parameters.

  3. Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal forecast system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andrejczuk, M; Juricke, S; Palmer, T N; Weisheimer, A; Zanna, L

    2015-01-01

    We study the impact of three stochastic parametrizations in the ocean component of a coupled model, on forecast reliability over seasonal timescales. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are analyzed. The oceanic variability induced by the atmospheric forcing of the coupled system is, in most regions, the major source of ensemble spread. The largest impact on spread and bias came from the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendency (SPPT) scheme - which has proven particularly effective in the atmosphere. The key regions affected are eddy-active regions, namely the western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean. However, unlike its impact in the atmosphere, SPPT in the ocean did not result in a significant decrease in forecast error. Whilst there are good grounds for implementing stochastic schemes in ocean models, our results suggest that they will have to be more sophisticated. Some suggestions for next-generation stochastic schemes are made.

  4. Numerical Weather Forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States)

    1998-11-01

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally-released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND System, a system of computer models and monitors which collect data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND System dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications.

  5. Exploring the Saturation Levels of Stimulated Raman Scattering in the Absolute Regime

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Michel, D. T. [LULI, UMR 7605 CNRS-Ecole Polytechnique-CEA-Universite Paris VI, 91128 Palaiseau cedex (France); CEA DAM DIF, F- 91297 Arpajon (France); Depierreux, S.; Tassin, V. [CEA DAM DIF, F- 91297 Arpajon (France); Stenz, C. [CELIA, Universite Bordeaux 1, 351 cours de la Liberation, 33405 Talence cedex (France); Labaune, C. [LULI, UMR 7605 CNRS-Ecole Polytechnique-CEA-Universite Paris VI, 91128 Palaiseau cedex (France)

    2010-06-25

    This Letter reports new experimental results that evidence the transition between the absolute and convective growth of stimulated Raman scattering (SRS). Significant reflectivities were observed only when the instability grows in the absolute regime. In this case, saturation processes efficiently limit the SRS reflectivity that is shown to scale linearly with the laser intensity, and the electron density and temperature. Such a scaling agrees with the one established by T. Kolber et al.[Phys. Fluids B 5, 138 (1993)] and B Bezzerides et al.[Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 2569 (1993)], from numerical simulations where the Raman saturation is due to the coupling of electron plasma waves with ion waves dynamics.

  6. Absolute continuity and singularity of Palm measures of the Ginibre point process

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hirofumi Osada; Tomoyuki Shirai

    2015-04-05

    We prove a dichotomy between absolute continuity and singularity of the Ginibre point process $\\mathsf{G}$ and its reduced Palm measures $\\{\\mathsf{G}_{\\mathbf{x}}, \\mathbf{x} \\in \\mathbb{C}^{\\ell}, \\ell = 0,1,2\\dots\\}$, namely, reduced Palm measures $\\G_{\\mathbf{x}}$ and $\\G_{\\mathbf{y}}$ for $\\mathbf{x} \\in \\mathbb{C}^{\\ell}$ and $\\mathbf{y} \\in \\mathbb{C}^{n}$ are mutually absolutely continuous if and only if $\\ell = n$; they are singular each other if and only if $\\ell \

  7. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01

    Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important Input into Building..., Martin Fradette Environment Canada RPN ? Recherche en Pr?vision num?rique Dr. Wei Yu, Dr. Paul Vaillancourt, Dr. Sylvie Leroyer Natural Resources Canada ? Canmet Energy Dr. Jos? A. Candanedo Overview ? Building management and weather information...

  8. Algorithms for bispectra: forecasting, optimal analysis, and simulation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kendrick M. Smith; Matias Zaldarriaga

    2011-11-08

    We propose a factorizability ansatz for angular bispectra which permits fast algorithms for forecasting, analysis, and simulation, yet is general enough to encompass many interesting CMB bispectra. We describe a suite of general algorithms which apply to any bispectrum which can be represented in factorizable form. First, we present algorithms for Fisher matrix forecasts and the related problem of optimizing the factorizable representation, giving a Fisher forecast for Planck as an example. We show that the CMB can give independent constraints on the amplitude of primordial bispectra of both local and equilateral shape as well as those created by secondary anisotropies. We also show that the ISW-lensing bispectrum should be detected by Planck and could bias estimates of the local type of non-Gaussianity if not properly accounted for. Second, we implement a bispectrum estimator which is fully optimal in the presence of sky cuts and inhomogeneous noise, extends the generality of fast estimators which have been limited to a few specific forms of the bispectrum, and improves the running time of existing implementations by several orders of magnitude. Third, we give an algorithm for simulating random, weakly non-Gaussian maps with prescribed power spectrum and factorizable bispectrum.

  9. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  10. Numerical weather forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND system, a system of computer models and monitors that collects data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space- and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND system dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications. A prognostic mesoscale model, the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS), is used to provide these forecasts. Use of RAMS allows for incorporation of mesoscale features such as the sea breeze, which has been shown to affect local weather conditions. This paper discusses the mesoscale model and its configuration for the operational simulation, as well as an application using a dispersion model at the SRS.

  11. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  12. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  13. Absolutely continuous spectrum implies ballistic transport for quantum particles in a random potential on tree graphs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aizenman, Michael; Warzel, Simone

    2012-09-15

    We discuss the dynamical implications of the recent proof that for a quantum particle in a random potential on a regular tree graph absolutely continuous (ac) spectrum occurs non-perturbatively through rare fluctuation-enabled resonances. The main result is spelled in the title.

  14. End-to-end absolute energy calibration of atmospheric fluorescence telescopes by an electron linear accelerator

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    End-to-end absolute energy calibration of atmospheric fluorescence telescopes by an electron linear of fluorescence telescopes by using air showers induced by electron beams from a linear accelerator, which and constructing a compact linear accelerator with a maximum electron energy of 40 MeV and an intensity of 6.4 m

  15. Characterizing absolute piezoelectric microelectromechanical system displacement using an atomic force microscope

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Evans, J., E-mail: radiant@ferrodevices.com; Chapman, S., E-mail: radiant@ferrodevices.com [Radiant Technologies, Inc., 2835C Pan American Fwy NE, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87107 (United States)

    2014-08-14

    Piezoresponse Force Microscopy (PFM) is a popular tool for the study of ferroelectric and piezoelectric materials at the nanometer level. Progress in the development of piezoelectric MEMS fabrication is highlighting the need to characterize absolute displacement at the nanometer and Ångstrom scales, something Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) might do but PFM cannot. Absolute displacement is measured by executing a polarization measurement of the ferroelectric or piezoelectric capacitor in question while monitoring the absolute vertical position of the sample surface with a stationary AFM cantilever. Two issues dominate the execution and precision of such a measurement: (1) the small amplitude of the electrical signal from the AFM at the Ångstrom level and (2) calibration of the AFM. The authors have developed a calibration routine and test technique for mitigating the two issues, making it possible to use an atomic force microscope to measure both the movement of a capacitor surface as well as the motion of a micro-machine structure actuated by that capacitor. The theory, procedures, pitfalls, and results of using an AFM for absolute piezoelectric measurement are provided.

  16. Measurement of the absolute branching fraction for D(0) -> K- pi+

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ammar, Raymond G.; Ball, S.; Baringer, Philip S.; Coppage, Don; Copty, N.; Davis, Robin E. P.; Hancock, N.; Kelly, M.; Kwak, Nowhan; Lam, H.

    1993-11-01

    Using 1.79 fb-1 of data recorded by the CLEO II detector we have measured the absolute branching fraction for D0 --> K-pi+. The angular correlation between the pi+ emitted in the decay D*+ --> D0pi+, and the jet direction in e+e- --> ccBAR events...

  17. Are ceramics and bricks reliable absolute geomagnetic intensity carriers? Juan Morales a,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cattin, Rodolphe

    Are ceramics and bricks reliable absolute geomagnetic intensity carriers? Juan Morales a, , Avto performed on the raw material (clay and paste) and on in situ prepared baked ceramics and bricks included indicate a mixture of multi- domain and a significant amount of single-domain grains. Ceramic pieces

  18. Signal generation mechanisms, intracavity-gas thermal-diffusivity temperature dependence, and absolute infrared emissivity measurements

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mandelis, Andreas

    Diagnostics Laboratories (PODL), University of Toronto, 5 King's College Road, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3G8 boundary layer adjacent to the cavity thermal source a metallic Cr­Ni alloy strip . This resulted cavity lengths allowed the measurement of the absolute infrared emissivity of the thin Cr­Ni strip source

  19. Absolute H Emission Measurement System for the Maryland Centrifugal eXperiment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anlage, Steven

    Absolute H Emission Measurement System for the Maryland Centrifugal eXperiment Ryan Clary April 22 developed and implemented at the Maryland Centrifugal eXperiment (MCX). The primary goal of this system Introduction The Maryland Centrifugal eXperiment (MCX) is a rotating-plasma mirror machine. The purpose

  20. High average power scaleable thin-disk laser

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Beach, Raymond J. (Livermore, CA); Honea, Eric C. (Sunol, CA); Bibeau, Camille (Dublin, CA); Payne, Stephen A. (Castro Valley, CA); Powell, Howard (Livermore, CA); Krupke, William F. (Pleasanton, CA); Sutton, Steven B. (Manteca, CA)

    2002-01-01

    Using a thin disk laser gain element with an undoped cap layer enables the scaling of lasers to extremely high average output power values. Ordinarily, the power scaling of such thin disk lasers is limited by the deleterious effects of amplified spontaneous emission. By using an undoped cap layer diffusion bonded to the thin disk, the onset of amplified spontaneous emission does not occur as readily as if no cap layer is used, and much larger transverse thin disks can be effectively used as laser gain elements. This invention can be used as a high average power laser for material processing applications as well as for weapon and air defense applications.

  1. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  2. Log-normal distribution based EMOS models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baran, Sándor

    2014-01-01

    Ensembles of forecasts are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather forecasting models with different initial conditions and typically employed to account for forecast uncertainties. However, biases and dispersion errors often occur in forecast ensembles, they are usually under-dispersive and uncalibrated and require statistical post-processing. We present an Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) method for calibration of wind speed forecasts based on the log-normal (LN) distribution, and we also show a regime-switching extension of the model which combines the previously studied truncated normal (TN) distribution with the LN. Both presented models are applied to wind speed forecasts of the eight-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble, of the fifty-member ECMWF ensemble and of the eleven-member ALADIN-HUNEPS ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, and their predictive performances are compared to those of the TN and general extreme value (GEV) distribution based EMOS methods an...

  3. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  4. The High Average Power Laser Program 15th HAPL meeting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , 2006 #12;2 The HAPL team is developing the science, technology and architecture needed for a laser1 The High Average Power Laser Program 15th HAPL meeting Aug 8 & 9, 2006 General Atomics Scientific Inst 16. Optiswitch Technology 17. ESLI Electricity Generator Electricity Generator Reaction

  5. Parity-violating anomalies and the stationarity of stochastic averages

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reuter, M.

    1988-01-15

    Within the framework of stochastic quantization the parity-violating anomalies in odd space-time dimensions are derived from the asymptotic stationarity of the stochastic average of a certain fermion bilinear. Contrary to earlier attempts, this method yields the correct anomalies for both massive and massless fermions.

  6. Fact #693: September 19, 2011 Average Vehicle Footprint for Cars...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    information below. Supporting Information Average Vehicle Footprint, 2008-2010 Model Year Car Light Truck All Light Vehicles 2008 45.4 53.0 49.0 2009 45.2 52.7 48.2 2010 45.2 54.0...

  7. Prediction in moving average processes Anton Schick and Wolfgang Wefelmeyer

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wefelmeyer, Wolfgang

    Prediction in moving average processes Anton Schick and Wolfgang Wefelmeyer Abstract(y + (x1, . . . , xr)) dF(y) The research of A. Schick was partially supported by NSF Grant DMS0405791. 1 #12;2 ANTON SCHICK AND WOLFGANG WEFELMEYER can be estimated at the "parametric" root-n rate

  8. Optimal Control with Weighted Average Costs and Temporal Logic Specifications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Murray, Richard M.

    Optimal Control with Weighted Average Costs and Temporal Logic Specifications Eric M. Wolff Control and Dynamical Systems California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California 91125 Email: ewolff@caltech.edu Ufuk Topcu Control and Dynamical Systems California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California 91125

  9. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  10. Risk analysis for species introductions: forecasting population growth of Eurasian ruffe

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Risk analysis for species introductions: forecasting population growth of Eurasian ruffe productivity (Leung et al. 2002). Risk-analysis methodology for intentional and unintentional introductions

  11. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), Solar Forecasting  1.   to more accurate prediction of solar  irradiance, given a to create daily solar electricity predictions accurate to 

  12. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  13. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast Energy Demand .............................................................. 23 Electricity Demand Growth in the West............................................................................................................................... 28 Estimating Electricity Demand in Data Centers

  14. Report of the External Expert Peer Review Panel: DOE Benefits Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2009-01-18

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  15. Skill evaluation of water supply forecasts in western Sierra Nevada and Colorado River basins

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Harrison, Brent

    2014-01-01

    streamflow predictions for water supply forecasting in theAn assessment of seasonal water supply outlooks in thepaper, Dept. of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of

  16. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    approach to evaluating price risk would be to use suchthe base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsorange of different plausible price projections, using either

  17. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    range of different plausible price projections, using eitherthat renewables can provide price certainty over even longerof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  18. Neural network based short-term load forecasting using weather compensation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chow, T.W.S.; Leung, C.T. [City Univ. of Hong Kong, Kowloon (Hong Kong). Dept. of Electronic Engineering] [City Univ. of Hong Kong, Kowloon (Hong Kong). Dept. of Electronic Engineering

    1996-11-01

    This paper presents a novel technique for electric load forecasting based on neural weather compensation. The proposed method is a nonlinear generalization of Box and Jenkins approach for nonstationary time-series prediction. A weather compensation neural network is implemented for one-day ahead electric load forecasting. The weather compensation neural network can accurately predict the change of actual electric load consumption from the previous day. The results, based on Hong Kong Island historical load demand, indicate that this methodology is capable of providing a more accurate load forecast with a 0.9% reduction in forecast error.

  19. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01

    user needs for convective weather forecasts," in AmericanJ. Andrews M. Weber, "Weather Information Requirements forInt. Conf. on Aviation Weather, Paris, France. [5] NASDAC. (

  20. Absolute x-ray energy calibration over a wide energy range using a diffraction-based iterative method

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Duffy, Thomas S.

    Mineral Physics Institute, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York 11794, USA 2 DepartmentAbsolute x-ray energy calibration over a wide energy range using a diffraction-based iterative;REVIEW OF SCIENTIFIC INSTRUMENTS 83, 063901 (2012) Absolute x-ray energy calibration over a wide energy

  1. Absolute entropy and free energy of fluids using the hypothetical scanning method. I. Calculation of transition probabilities from local grand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meirovitch, Hagai

    Absolute entropy and free energy of fluids using the hypothetical scanning method. I. Calculation the absolute entropy and free energy from a Boltzmann sample generated by Monte Carlo, molecular dynamics for the free energy. We demonstrate that very good results for the entropy and the free energy can be obtained

  2. Absolute distance perception during in-depth head movement: calibrating optic flow with extra-retinal information

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fah, Cheong Loong

    Absolute distance perception during in-depth head movement: calibrating optic flow with extra-retinal Processing and Application Laboratory (IPAL-CNRS), KDRL, 21 Heng Mui Keng Terrace, Singapore 119613 d reserved. Keywords: Self-motion; Object-motion; Absolute distance perception; Optic flow; Extra-retinal cue

  3. Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities, Fiscal year 1995

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1995-02-01

    Welcome to the US Department of Energy`s Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities. This forecast, which is published pursuant to Public Low 100--656, ``Business Opportunity Development Reform Act of 1988,`` is intended to inform small business concerns, including those owned and controlled by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals, and women-owned small business concerns, of the anticipated fiscal year 1995 contracting and subcontracting opportunities with the Department of Energy and its management and operating contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors. This document will provide the small business contractor with advance notice of the Department`s procurement plans as they pertain to small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business concerns.Opportunities contained in the forecast support the mission of the Department, to serve as advocate for the notion`s energy production, regulation, demonstration, conservation, reserve maintenance, nuclear weapons and defense research, development and testing, when it is a national priority. The Department`s responsibilities include long-term, high-risk research and development of energy technology, the marketing of Federal power, and maintenance of a central energy data collection and analysis program. A key mission for the Department is to identify and reduce risks, as well as manage waste at more than 100 sites in 34 states and territories, where nuclear energy or weapons research and production resulted in radioactive, hazardous, and mixed waste contamination. Each fiscal year, the Department establishes contracting goals to increase contracts to small business concerns and meet our mission objectives.

  4. Traffic congestion forecasting model for the INFORM System. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Azarm, A.; Mughabghab, S.; Stock, D.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a computerized traffic forecasting model, developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for a portion of the Long Island INFORM Traffic Corridor. The model has gone through a testing phase, and currently is able to make accurate traffic predictions up to one hour forward in time. The model will eventually take on-line traffic data from the INFORM system roadway sensors and make projections as to future traffic patterns, thus allowing operators at the New York State Department of Transportation (D.O.T.) INFORM Traffic Management Center to more optimally manage traffic. It can also form the basis of a travel information system. The BNL computer model developed for this project is called ATOP for Advanced Traffic Occupancy Prediction. The various modules of the ATOP computer code are currently written in Fortran and run on PC computers (pentium machine) faster than real time for the section of the INFORM corridor under study. The following summarizes the various routines currently contained in the ATOP code: Statistical forecasting of traffic flow and occupancy using historical data for similar days and time (long term knowledge), and the recent information from the past hour (short term knowledge). Estimation of the empirical relationships between traffic flow and occupancy using long and short term information. Mechanistic interpolation using macroscopic traffic models and based on the traffic flow and occupancy forecasted (item-1), and the empirical relationships (item-2) for the specific highway configuration at the time of simulation (construction, lane closure, etc.). Statistical routine for detection and classification of anomalies and their impact on the highway capacity which are fed back to previous items.

  5. Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awwad, Haitham Munir

    1991-01-01

    Farland (Member) J esTR ao (Head of Department) May 1991 ABSTRACT Streamflow Forecasting for Large-Scale Hydrologic Systems. (May 1991) Haitham Munir Awwad, B. S. , University of Jordan Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Juan B. Valdes An on-line streamflow... thankful to Dr. Ralph A. Wurbs and Dr. Marshall J. McFarland for their assistance on my advisory committee. Support for this thesis by the Department of Civil Engineering through the Engineering Excellence Fund, and by the U, S. Army Corps of Engineers...

  6. An Analysis of Air Passenger Average Trip Lengths and Fare Levels in US Domestic Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huang, Sheng-Chen Alex

    2000-01-01

    California at Berkeley An Analysis of Air Passenger AverageCalifornia at Berkeley An Analysis of Air Passenger Average

  7. Inclusion of In-Situ Velocity Measurements into the UCSD Time-Dependent Tomography to Constrain and Better-Forecast Remote-Sensing Observations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jackson, B. V.; Hick, P. P.; Bisi, M. M.; Clover, J. M.; Buffington, A.

    2010-01-01

    time”. The solar-wind velocity forecast 24 hours ahead of72-hour forecast volume using the extant solar-wind model.forecast. In-situ data have been the primary measurements available for study of solar-wind

  8. Anomalous transport and observable average in the standard map

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lydia Bouchara; Ouerdia Ourrad; Sandro Vaienti; Xavier Leoncini

    2015-09-02

    The distribution of finite time observable averages and transport in low dimensional Hamiltonian systems is studied. Finite time observable average distributions are computed, from which an exponent $\\alpha$ characteristic of how the maximum of the distributions scales with time is extracted. To link this exponent to transport properties, the characteristic exponent $\\mu(q)$ of the time evolution of the different moments of order $q$ related to transport are computed. As a testbed for our study the standard map is used. The stochasticity parameter $K$ is chosen so that either phase space is mixed with a chaotic sea and islands of stability or with only a chaotic sea. Our observations lead to a proposition of a law relating the slope in $q=0$ of the function $\\mu(q)$ with the exponent $\\alpha$.

  9. A New World Average Value for the Neutron Lifetime

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A. P. Serebrov; A. K. Fomin

    2010-05-27

    The analysis of the data on measurements of the neutron lifetime is presented. A new most accurate result of the measurement of neutron lifetime [Phys. Lett. B 605 (2005) 72] 878.5 +/- 0.8 s differs from the world average value [Phys. Lett. B 667 (2008) 1] 885.7 +/- 0.8 s by 6.5 standard deviations. In this connection the analysis and Monte Carlo simulation of experiments [Phys. Lett. B 483 (2000) 15] and [Phys. Rev. Lett. 63 (1989) 593] is carried out. Systematic errors of about -6 s are found in each of the experiments. The summary table for the neutron lifetime measurements after corrections and additions is given. A new world average value for the neutron lifetime 879.9 +/- 0.9 s is presented.

  10. Modeling an Application's Theoretical Minimum and Average Transactional Response Times

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paiz, Mary Rose

    2015-04-01

    The theoretical minimum transactional response time of an application serves as a ba- sis for the expected response time. The lower threshold for the minimum response time represents the minimum amount of time that the application should take to complete a transaction. Knowing the lower threshold is beneficial in detecting anomalies that are re- sults of unsuccessful transactions. On the converse, when an application's response time falls above an upper threshold, there is likely an anomaly in the application that is causing unusual performance issues in the transaction. This report explains how the non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value distribution is used to estimate the lower threshold of an ap- plication's daily minimum transactional response time. It also explains how the seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average time series model is used to estimate the upper threshold for an application's average transactional response time.

  11. Average Interpolating Wavelets on Point Clouds and Graphs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rustamov, Raif M

    2011-01-01

    We introduce a new wavelet transform suitable for analyzing functions on point clouds and graphs. Our construction is based on a generalization of the average interpolating refinement scheme of Donoho. The most important ingredient of the original scheme that needs to be altered is the choice of the interpolant. Here, we define the interpolant as the minimizer of a smoothness functional, namely a generalization of the Laplacian energy, subject to the averaging constraints. In the continuous setting, we derive a formula for the optimal solution in terms of the poly-harmonic Green's function. The form of this solution is used to motivate our construction in the setting of graphs and point clouds. We highlight the empirical convergence of our refinement scheme and the potential applications of the resulting wavelet transform through experiments on a number of data stets.

  12. Average dynamics of a finite set of coupled phase oscillators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dima, Germán C. Mindlin, Gabriel B.

    2014-06-15

    We study the solutions of a dynamical system describing the average activity of an infinitely large set of driven coupled excitable units. We compared their topological organization with that reconstructed from the numerical integration of finite sets. In this way, we present a strategy to establish the pertinence of approximating the dynamics of finite sets of coupled nonlinear units by the dynamics of its infinitely large surrogate.

  13. Averaging cross section data so we can fit it

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, D.

    2014-10-23

    The 56Fe cross section we are interested in have a lot of fluctuations. We would like to fit the average of the cross section with cross sections calculated within EMPIRE. EMPIRE is a Hauser-Feshbach theory based nuclear reaction code, requires cross sections to be smoothed using a Lorentzian profile. The plan is to fit EMPIRE to these cross sections in the fast region (say above 500 keV).

  14. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  15. Averaged equilibrium and stability in low-aspect-ratio stellarators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garcia, L.; Carreras, B.A.; Dominguez, N.

    1989-01-01

    The MHD equilibrium and stability calculations or stellarators are complex because of the intrinsic three-dimensional (3-D) character of these configurations. The stellarators expansion simplifies the equilibrium calculation by reducing it to a two-dimensional (2-D) problem. The classical stellarator expansion includes terms up to order epsilon/sup 2/, and the vacuum magnetic field is also included up to this order. For large-aspect-ratio configurations, the results of the stellarator expansion agree well with 3-D numerical equilibrium results. But for low-aspect-ratio configurations, these are significant discrepancies with 3-D equilibrium calculations. The main reason for these discrepancies is the approximation in the vacuum field contributions. This problem can be avoided by applying the average method in a vacuum flux coordinate system. In this way, the exact vacuum magnetic field contribution is included and the results agree well with 3-D equilibrium calculations even for low-aspect-ratio configurations. Using the average method in a vacuum flux coordinate system also permit the accurate calculation of local stability properties with the Mercier criterion. The main improvement is in the accurate calculation of the geodesic curvature term. In this paper, we discuss the application of the average method in flux coordinates to the calculation of the Mercier criterion for low-aspect-ratio stellarator configurations. 12 refs., 3 figs.

  16. Absolute total and partial dissociative cross sections of pyrimidine at electron and proton intermediate impact velocities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wolff, Wania Luna, Hugo; Sigaud, Lucas; Montenegro, Eduardo C.; Tavares, Andre C.

    2014-02-14

    Absolute total non-dissociative and partial dissociative cross sections of pyrimidine were measured for electron impact energies ranging from 70 to 400 eV and for proton impact energies from 125 up to 2500 keV. MOs ionization induced by coulomb interaction were studied by measuring both ionization and partial dissociative cross sections through time of flight mass spectrometry and by obtaining the branching ratios for fragment formation via a model calculation based on the Born approximation. The partial yields and the absolute cross sections measured as a function of the energy combined with the model calculation proved to be a useful tool to determine the vacancy population of the valence MOs from which several sets of fragment ions are produced. It was also a key point to distinguish the dissociation regimes induced by both particles. A comparison with previous experimental results is also presented.

  17. Fitting and forecasting non-linear coupled dark energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Casas, Santiago; Baldi, Marco; Pettorino, Valeria; Vollmer, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    We consider cosmological models in which dark matter feels a fifth force mediated by the dark energy scalar field, also known as coupled dark energy. Our interest resides in estimating forecasts for future surveys like Euclid when we take into account non-linear effects, relying on new fitting functions that reproduce the non-linear matter power spectrum obtained from N-body simulations. We obtain fitting functions for models in which the dark matter-dark energy coupling is constant. Their validity is demonstrated for all available simulations in the redshift range $z=0-1.6$ and wave modes below $k=10 \\text{h/Mpc}$. These fitting formulas can be used to test the predictions of the model in the non-linear regime without the need for additional computing-intensive N-body simulations. We then use these fitting functions to perform forecasts on the constraining power that future galaxy-redshift surveys like Euclid will have on the coupling parameter, using the Fisher matrix method for galaxy clustering (GC) and w...

  18. Absolute pulse energy measurements of soft x-rays at the Linac Coherent Light Source

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Tiedtke, K.; Sorokin, A. A.; Jastrow, U.; Jurani?, P.; Kreis, S.; Gerken, N.; Richter, M.; Arp, U.; Feng, Y.; Nordlund, D.; et al

    2014-01-01

    This paper reports novel measurements of x-ray optical radiation on an absolute scale from the intense and ultra-short radiation generated in the soft x-ray regime of a free electron laser. We give a brief description of the detection principle for radiation measurements which was specifically adapted for this photon energy range. We present data characterizing the soft x-ray instrument at the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) with respect to the radiant power output and transmission by using an absolute detector temporarily placed at the downstream end of the instrument. This provides an estimation of the reflectivity of all x-ray opticalmore »elements in the beamline and provides the absolute photon number per bandwidth per pulse. This parameter is important for many experiments that need to understand the trade-offs between high energy resolution and high flux, such as experiments focused on studying materials via resonant processes. Furthermore, the results are compared with the LCLS diagnostic gas detectors to test the limits of linearity, and observations are reported on radiation contamination from spontaneous undulator radiation and higher harmonic content.« less

  19. Introducing an Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer (ACP) for Improving the Atmospheric Longwave Irradiance Measurement (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reda, I.; Stoffel, T.

    2012-03-01

    Advancing climate change research requires accurate and traceable measurement of the atmospheric longwave irradiance. Current measurement capabilities are limited to an estimated uncertainty of larger than +/- 4 W/m2 using the interim World Infrared Standard Group (WISG). WISG is traceable to the Systeme international d'unites (SI) through blackbody calibrations. An Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer (ACP) is being developed to measure absolute outdoor longwave irradiance with traceability to SI using the temperature scale (ITS-90) and the sky as the reference source, instead of a blackbody. The ACP was designed by NREL and optically characterized by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Under clear-sky and stable conditions, the responsivity of the ACP is determined by lowering the temperature of the cavity and calculating the rate of change of the thermopile output voltage versus the changing net irradiance. The absolute atmospheric longwave irradiance is then calculated with an uncertainty of +/- 3.96 W/m2 with traceability to SI. The measured irradiance by the ACP was compared with the irradiance measured by two pyrgeometers calibrated by the World Radiation Center with traceability to the WISG.

  20. Introducing an Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer for Improving the Atmospheric Longwave Irradiance Measurement (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reda, I.; Hansen, L.; Zeng, J.

    2012-08-01

    Advancing climate change research requires accurate and traceable measurement of the atmospheric longwave irradiance. Current measurement capabilities are limited to an estimated uncertainty of larger than +/- 4 W/m2 using the interim World Infrared Standard Group (WISG). WISG is traceable to the Systeme international d'unites (SI) through blackbody calibrations. An Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer (ACP) is being developed to measure absolute outdoor longwave irradiance with traceability to SI using the temperature scale (ITS-90) and the sky as the reference source, instead of a blackbody. The ACP was designed by NREL and optically characterized by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Under clear-sky and stable conditions, the responsivity of the ACP is determined by lowering the temperature of the cavity and calculating the rate of change of the thermopile output voltage versus the changing net irradiance. The absolute atmospheric longwave irradiance is then calculated with an uncertainty of +/- 3.96 W/m2 with traceability to SI. The measured irradiance by the ACP was compared with the irradiance measured by two pyrgeometers calibrated by the World Radiation Center with traceability to the WISG. A total of 408 readings was collected over three different clear nights. The calculated irradiance measured by the ACP was 1.5 W/m2 lower than that measured by the two pyrgeometers that are traceable to WISG. Further development and characterization of the ACP might contribute to the effort of improving the uncertainty and traceability of WISG to SI.