National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for average absolute forecast

  1. Variable Average Absolute Percent Differences

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Variable Average Absolute Percent Differences Percent of Projections Over- Estimated Gross Domestic Product Real Gross Domestic Product (Average Cumulative Growth)* (Table 2) 0.9 45.8 Petroleum Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil (Constant $) (Table 3a) 37.7 17.3 Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil (Nominal $) (Table 3b) 36.6 18.7 Total Petroleum Consumption (Table 4) 7.9 70.7 Crude Oil Production (Table 5) 8.1 51.1 Petroleum Net Imports (Table 6) 24.7 73.8 Natural Gas

  2. "Variable","Average Absolute Percent Differences","Percent of...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review, 2014" "Variable","Average Absolute Percent Differences","Percent of Projections Over- Estimated" "Gross Domestic Product" "Real Gross ...

  3. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  4. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... day-ahead wind generation forecasts yields an average of 195M savings in annual operating costs. Figure 6 shows how operating cost savings vary with improvements in forecasting. ...

  5. Absolute nuclear material assay

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prasad, Manoj K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.

    2010-07-13

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  6. Absolute nuclear material assay

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prasad, Manoj K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.

    2012-05-15

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  7. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  8. The absolute path command

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-11

    The ap command traveres all symlinks in a given file, directory, or executable name to identify the final absolute path. It can print just the final path, each intermediate link along with the symlink chan, and the permissions and ownership of each directory component in the final path. It has functionality similar to "which", except that it shows the final path instead of the first path. It is also similar to "pwd", but it canmore » provide the absolute path to a relative directory from the current working directory.« less

  9. Measurement of the absolute \

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aunion, Jose Luis Alcaraz; /Barcelona, IFAE

    2010-07-01

    This thesis presents the measurement of the charged current quasi-elastic (CCQE) neutrino-nucleon cross section at neutrino energies around 1 GeV. This measurement has two main physical motivations. On one hand, the neutrino-nucleon interactions at few GeV is a region where existing old data are sparse and with low statistics. The current measurement populates low energy regions with higher statistics and precision than previous experiments. On the other hand, the CCQE interaction is the most useful interaction in neutrino oscillation experiments. The CCQE channel is used to measure the initial and final neutrino fluxes in order to determine the neutrino fraction that disappeared. The neutrino oscillation experiments work at low neutrino energies, so precise measurement of CCQE interactions are essential for flux measurements. The main goal of this thesis is to measure the CCQE absolute neutrino cross section from the SciBooNE data. The SciBar Booster Neutrino Experiment (SciBooNE) is a neutrino and anti-neutrino scattering off experiment. The neutrino energy spectrum works at energies around 1 GeV. SciBooNE was running from June 8th 2007 to August 18th 2008. In that period, the experiment collected a total of 2.65 x 10{sup 20} protons on target (POT). This thesis has used full data collection in neutrino mode 0.99 x 10{sup 20} POT. A CCQE selection cut has been performed, achieving around 70% pure CCQE sample. A fit method has been exclusively developed to determine the absolute CCQE cross section, presenting results in a neutrino energy range from 0.2 to 2 GeV. The results are compatible with the NEUT predictions. The SciBooNE measurement has been compared with both Carbon (MiniBoonE) and deuterium (ANL and BNL) target experiments, showing a good agreement in both cases.

  10. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 -0.9% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $424 3.9% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,992 2,082 4.5% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.37 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $371 $382 3.0% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,371 2,497 5.3% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  11. Neutron resonance averaging

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chrien, R.E.

    1986-10-01

    The principles of resonance averaging as applied to neutron capture reactions are described. Several illustrations of resonance averaging to problems of nuclear structure and the distribution of radiative strength in nuclei are provided. 30 refs., 12 figs.

  12. STEO January 2013 - average gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    drivers to see lower average gasoline prices in 2013 and 2014 U.S. retail gasoline prices are expected to decline over the next two years. The average pump price for regular unleaded gasoline was $3.63 a gallon during 2012. That is expected to fall to $3.44 this year and then drop to $3.34 in 2014, according to the new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Expected lower crude oil prices.....which accounted for about two-thirds of the price of gasoline in 2012....will

  13. Average Residential Price

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Data Series: Average Residential Price Residential Price - Local Distribution Companies Residential Price - Marketers Residential % Sold by Local Distribution Companies Average Commercial Price Commercial Price - Local Distribution Companies Commerical Price - Marketers Commercial % Sold by Local Distribution Companies Period: Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Show Data By: Data Series Area 2010 2011

  14. Absolute calibration of optical flats

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sommargren, Gary E.

    2005-04-05

    The invention uses the phase shifting diffraction interferometer (PSDI) to provide a true point-by-point measurement of absolute flatness over the surface of optical flats. Beams exiting the fiber optics in a PSDI have perfect spherical wavefronts. The measurement beam is reflected from the optical flat and passed through an auxiliary optic to then be combined with the reference beam on a CCD. The combined beams include phase errors due to both the optic under test and the auxiliary optic. Standard phase extraction algorithms are used to calculate this combined phase error. The optical flat is then removed from the system and the measurement fiber is moved to recombine the two beams. The newly combined beams include only the phase errors due to the auxiliary optic. When the second phase measurement is subtracted from the first phase measurement, the absolute phase error of the optical flat is obtained.

  15. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  16. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  17. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  18. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  19. Absolut Energy Capital | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Absolut Energy Capital Jump to: navigation, search Name: Absolut Energy Capital Place: London, England, United Kingdom Zip: W1H - 6HN Sector: Renewable Energy Product: London-based...

  20. Absolute Energy USA | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    USA Jump to: navigation, search Name: Absolute Energy (USA) Place: St. Ansgar, Iowa Zip: 50472 Product: Absolute Energy has built a 100 million gallon per year ethanol plant on the...

  1. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  2. Concentration Averaging | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Concentration Averaging Concentration Averaging Summary Notes from 3 October 2007 Generic Technical Issue Discussion on Concentration Averaging PDF icon Summary Notes from 3...

  3. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the integration cost of high levels of solar energy into the electricity grid. This will help SunShot to assess current technology and practices in this field and identify the gaps and needs for further research.

  4. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable.

  5. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  6. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  7. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  8. Absolute Energy Capital | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Capital Jump to: navigation, search Name: Absolute Energy Capital Place: London, United Kingdom Zip: SW1Y 5NQ Product: London-based private equity firm. Coordinates: 51.506325,...

  9. ARM - Field Campaign - Absolute Solar Transmittance Interferometer...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaignsAbsolute Solar Transmittance Interferometer (ASTI) ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at ...

  10. Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of Domain Composition...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of Domain Composition and Nanoscale Size Distribution Explains Performance in Solar Cells Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of...

  11. Spacetime averaged null energy condition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Urban, Douglas; Olum, Ken D.

    2010-06-15

    The averaged null energy condition has known violations for quantum fields in curved space, even when one considers only achronal geodesics. Many such examples involve rapid variation in the stress-energy tensor in the vicinity of the geodesic under consideration, giving rise to the possibility that averaging in additional dimensions would yield a principle universally obeyed by quantum fields. However, after discussing various procedures for additional averaging, including integrating over all dimensions of the manifold, we give here a class of examples that violate any such averaged condition.

  12. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  13. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  14. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  15. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  16. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  17. Electric-utility DSM programs: 1990 data and forecasts to 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hirst, E.

    1992-06-01

    In April 1992, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data on 1989 and 1990 electric-utility demand-site management (DMS) programs. These data represent a census of US utility DSM programs, with reports of utility expenditures, energy savings, and load reductions caused by these programs. In addition, EIA published utility estimates of the costs and effects of these programs from 1991 to 2000. These data provide the first comprehensive picture of what utilities are spending and accomplishing by utility, state, and region. This report presents, summarizes, and interprets the 1990 data and the utility forecasts of their DSM-program expenditures and impacts to the year 2000. Only utilities with annual sales greater than 120 GWh were required to report data on their DSM programs to EIA. Of the 1194 such utilities, 363 reported having a DSM program that year. These 363 electric utilities spent $1.2 billion on their DSM programs in 1990, up from $0.9 billion in 1989. Estimates of energy savings (17,100 GWh in 1990 and 14,800 GWh in 1989) and potential reductions in peak demand (24,400 MW in 1990 and about 19,400 MW in 1989) also showed substantial increases. Overall, utility DSM expenditures accounted for 0.7% of total US electric revenues, while the reductions in energy and demand accounted for 0.6% and 4.9% of their respective 1990 national totals. The investor-owned utilities accounted for 70 to 90% of the totals for DSM costs, energy savings, and demand reductions. The public utilities reported larger percentage reductions in peak demand and energy smaller percentage DSM expenditures. These averages hide tremendous variations across utilities. Utility forecasts of DSM expenditures and effects show substantial growth in both absolute and relative terms.

  18. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below 3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly ...

  19. High average power pockels cell

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Daly, Thomas P.

    1991-01-01

    A high average power pockels cell is disclosed which reduces the effect of thermally induced strains in high average power laser technology. The pockels cell includes an elongated, substantially rectangular crystalline structure formed from a KDP-type material to eliminate shear strains. The X- and Y-axes are oriented substantially perpendicular to the edges of the crystal cross-section and to the C-axis direction of propagation to eliminate shear strains.

  20. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  1. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  2. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Soft Costs Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar ...

  3. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... will share their expertise with CLASIC and CHAPS forecasters and project leaders as they consult on the forecast that will determine the day's operations plan. -- Storm Prediction ...

  4. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  5. Absolute and relative dosimetry for ELIMED

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cirrone, G. A. P.; Schillaci, F.; Scuderi, V.; Cuttone, G.; Candiano, G.; Musumarra, A.; Pisciotta, P.; Romano, F.; Carpinelli, M.; Presti, D. Lo; Raffaele, L.; Tramontana, A.; Cirio, R.; Sacchi, R.; Monaco, V.; Marchetto, F.; Giordanengo, S.

    2013-07-26

    The definition of detectors, methods and procedures for the absolute and relative dosimetry of laser-driven proton beams is a crucial step toward the clinical use of this new kind of beams. Hence, one of the ELIMED task, will be the definition of procedures aiming to obtain an absolute dose measure at the end of the transport beamline with an accuracy as close as possible to the one required for clinical applications (i.e. of the order of 5% or less). Relative dosimetry procedures must be established, as well: they are necessary in order to determine and verify the beam dose distributions and to monitor the beam fluence and the energetic spectra during irradiations. Radiochromic films, CR39, Faraday Cup, Secondary Emission Monitor (SEM) and transmission ionization chamber will be considered, designed and studied in order to perform a fully dosimetric characterization of the ELIMED proton beam.

  6. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  7. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-07-20.xlsx (72.85 KB) More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Assessment Report: OAS-V-15-01

  8. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  9. Gasoline price to average below $2 in 2016 for first time in 12 years

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price to average below $2 in 2016 for first time in 12 years The annual average price for U.S. regular-grade gasoline is expected to fall below $2 per gallon this year for the first time since 2004. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said drivers will pay on average $1.98 per gallon to fill up at the pump with regular-grade gasoline. EIA expects the monthly average price of gasoline to reach a seven-year low of $1.82 per gallon in February, before

  10. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  11. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  12. Absolute intensity calibration of the 32-channel heterodyne radiometer on experimental advanced superconducting tokamak

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, X.; Zhao, H. L.; Liu, Y. Li, E. Z.; Han, X.; Ti, A.; Hu, L. Q.; Zhang, X. D.; Domier, C. W.; Luhmann, N. C.

    2014-09-15

    This paper presents the results of the in situ absolute intensity calibration for the 32-channel heterodyne radiometer on the experimental advanced superconducting tokamak. The hot/cold load method is adopted, and the coherent averaging technique is employed to improve the signal to noise ratio. Measured spectra and electron temperature profiles are compared with those from an independent calibrated Michelson interferometer, and there is a relatively good agreement between the results from the two different systems.

  13. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  14. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Subcontracting / Subcontracting Forecasts / UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities

  15. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  16. Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan

    2014-09-12

    Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

  17. Absolute nuclear material assay using count distribution (LAMBDA) space

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prasad, Mano K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.

    2015-12-01

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  18. Absolute nuclear material assay using count distribution (LAMBDA) space

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Prasad, Manoj K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.

    2012-06-05

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  19. Ensemble bayesian model averaging using markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Diks, Cees G H; Clark, Martyn P

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In their seminal paper (Raftery etal. Mon Weather Rev 133: 1155-1174, 2(05)) has recommended the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for BMA model training, even though global convergence of this algorithm cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we compare the performance of the EM algorithm and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the BMA weights and variances. Simulation experiments using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and multi-model stream-flow forecasts show that both methods produce similar results, and that their performance is unaffected by the length of the training data set. However, MCMC simulation with DREAM is capable of efficiently handling a wide variety of BMA predictive distributions, and provides useful information about the uncertainty associated with the estimated BMA weights and variances.

  20. Average U.S. household to spend $710 less on gasoline during 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    drivers to see big savings at the gasoline pump this summer U.S. consumers are expected to pay the lowest average price for gasoline in six years during this summer's driving season, mostly because of lower crude oil costs. In its new forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the price for regular gasoline should average $2.45 per gallon this summer. That's down more than a dollar from the $3.59 per gallon seen last summer, and the cheapest average summer pump price since 2009.

  1. Average household expected to save $675 at the pump in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Average household expected to save $675 at the pump in 2015 Although retail gasoline prices have risen in recent weeks U.S. consumers are still expected to save about $675 per household in motor fuel costs this year. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says the average pump price for regular grade gasoline in 2015 will be $2.43 per gallon. That's about 93 cents lower than last year's average. The savings for consumers will be even bigger during the

  2. Two-Sensor System for Absolute Age and Temperature History -...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    PDF Document Publication Market Sheet (718 KB) Technology Marketing Summary Numerous commercial and military applications require knowing the absolute age andor temperature ...

  3. A targeted proteomics toolkit for high-throughput absolute quantificat...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    targeted proteomics toolkit for high-throughput absolute quantification of Escherichia coli proteins Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A targeted proteomics toolkit for ...

  4. An absolute calibration method of an ethyl alcohol biosensor...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    biosensor based on wavelength-modulated differential photothermal radiometry Citation Details In-Document Search Title: An absolute calibration method of an ethyl alcohol biosensor ...

  5. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  6. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year Rising crude oil prices are likely to be passed on to consumers at the pump, but U.S. drivers are still expected to pay the lowest summer gasoline prices since 2004, and for all of 2016 the average household will spend $900 less on gasoline than it did two years ago." In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average

  7. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  8. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  9. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications » Market Studies » LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030. With declining costs and improving performance, LED products have been seeing increased adoption for general illumination applications. This is a positive development in terms of energy consumption, as LEDs use significantly

  10. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  11. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  12. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  13. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  14. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  15. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  16. Builds in U.S. natural gas storage running above five-year average

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Builds in U.S. natural gas storage running above five-year average The amount of natural gas put into underground storage since the beginning of the so-called "injection season" in April has been above the five-year average by a wide margin. In its new forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said natural gas inventories, which are running more than 50% above year ago levels, are on track to reach almost 4 trillion cubic feet by the end of October which marks the start of

  17. U.S. gasoline price expected to average less than $2 a gallon both this year and next

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    U.S. gasoline price expected to average less than $2 a gallon both this year and next U.S. drivers are now expected to see back-to-back years of annual average gasoline prices below $2 per gallon for the first time in more than a decade. In its latest monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said low oil prices will keep the average annual price for a gallon of regular-grade gasoline at $1.89 this year and at $1.97 in 2017. The last time gasoline averaged less than $2 for two

  18. Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of Domain Composition and

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Nanoscale Size Distribution Explains Performance in Solar Cells Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of Domain Composition and Nanoscale Size Distribution Explains Performance in Solar Cells Organic Solar Cells: Absolute Measurement of Domain Composition and Nanoscale Size Distribution Explains Performance in Solar Cells Print Tuesday, 22 January 2013 00:00 This front cover represents the morphology and resulting device dynamics in organic solar cell blend films of PTB7 and PC71BM, as

  19. Average and effective Q-values for fission product average (n...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Average and effective Q-values for fission product average (n,2n) and (n,3n) reaction cross sections Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Average and effective Q-values for ...

  20. Average and effective Q-values for fission product average (n...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Technical Report: Average and effective Q-values for fission product average (n,2n) and (n,3n) reaction cross sections Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Average and ...

  1. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  2. ,"Selected National Average Natural Gas Prices"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Selected National Average Natural Gas Prices" ,"Click worksheet name or tab at bottom for data" ,"Worksheet Name","Description"," Of Series","Frequency","Latest Data for" ,"Data ...

  3. Dynamic Multiscale Averaging (DMA) of Turbulent Flow

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richard W. Johnson

    2012-09-01

    A new approach called dynamic multiscale averaging (DMA) for computing the effects of turbulent flow is described. The new method encompasses multiple applications of temporal and spatial averaging, that is, multiscale operations. Initially, a direct numerical simulation (DNS) is performed for a relatively short time; it is envisioned that this short time should be long enough to capture several fluctuating time periods of the smallest scales. The flow field variables are subject to running time averaging during the DNS. After the relatively short time, the time-averaged variables are volume averaged onto a coarser grid. Both time and volume averaging of the describing equations generate correlations in the averaged equations. These correlations are computed from the flow field and added as source terms to the computation on the next coarser mesh. They represent coupling between the two adjacent scales. Since they are computed directly from first principles, there is no modeling involved. However, there is approximation involved in the coupling correlations as the flow field has been computed for only a relatively short time. After the time and spatial averaging operations are applied at a given stage, new computations are performed on the next coarser mesh using a larger time step. The process continues until the coarsest scale needed is reached. New correlations are created for each averaging procedure. The number of averaging operations needed is expected to be problem dependent. The new DMA approach is applied to a relatively low Reynolds number flow in a square duct segment. Time-averaged stream-wise velocity and vorticity contours from the DMA approach appear to be very similar to a full DNS for a similar flow reported in the literature. Expected symmetry for the final results is produced for the DMA method. The results obtained indicate that DMA holds significant potential in being able to accurately compute turbulent flow without modeling for practical

  4. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  5. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  6. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  7. Average summer electric power bills expected to be lowest in...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Lower electricity use to meet cooling demand this summer because of forecasted milder temperatures compared with last summer is expected to more than offset higher electricity ...

  8. Measurements of the reactor neutron power in absolute units

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lebedev, G. V.

    2015-12-15

    The neutron power of the reactor of the Yenisei space nuclear power plant is measured in absolute units using the modernized method of correlation analysis during the ground-based tests of the Yenisei prototypes. Results of the experiments are given. The desired result is obtained in a series of experiments carried out at the stage of the plant preparation for tests. The acceptability of experimental data is confirmed by the results of measuring the reactor neutron power in absolute units at the nominal level by the thermal balance during the life cycle tests of the ground prototypes.

  9. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  10. Spacetime Average Density (SAD) cosmological measures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Page, Don N.

    2014-11-01

    The measure problem of cosmology is how to obtain normalized probabilities of observations from the quantum state of the universe. This is particularly a problem when eternal inflation leads to a universe of unbounded size so that there are apparently infinitely many realizations or occurrences of observations of each of many different kinds or types, making the ratios ambiguous. There is also the danger of domination by Boltzmann Brains. Here two new Spacetime Average Density (SAD) measures are proposed, Maximal Average Density (MAD) and Biased Average Density (BAD), for getting a finite number of observation occurrences by using properties of the Spacetime Average Density (SAD) of observation occurrences to restrict to finite regions of spacetimes that have a preferred beginning or bounce hypersurface. These measures avoid Boltzmann brain domination and appear to give results consistent with other observations that are problematic for other widely used measures, such as the observation of a positive cosmological constant.

  11. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  12. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  13. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  14. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  15. Analysis of standard reference materials by absolute INAA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heft, R.E.; Koszykowski, R.F.

    1981-07-01

    Three standard reference materials, flyash, soil, and ASI 4340 steel, were analyzed by a method of absolute instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). Two different light water pool-type reactors were used to produce equivalent analytical results even though the epithermal to thermal flux ratio in one reactor was higher than that in the other by a factor of two.

  16. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  17. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  18. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  19. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  20. Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu Beyond the familiar flu,

  1. Polarized electron beams at milliampere average current

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poelker, Matthew

    2013-11-01

    This contribution describes some of the challenges associated with developing a polarized electron source capable of uninterrupted days-long operation at milliAmpere average beam current with polarization greater than 80%. Challenges will be presented in the context of assessing the required level of extrapolation beyond the performance of today's CEBAF polarized source operating at ~ 200 uA average current. Estimates of performance at higher current will be based on hours-long demonstrations at 1 and 4 mA. Particular attention will be paid to beam-related lifetime-limiting mechanisms, and strategies to construct a photogun that operate reliably at bias voltage > 350kV.

  2. Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulation of the heave performance of a two-body floating-point absorber wave energy system Yi-Hsiang Yu, Ye Li ⇑ National Wind Technology Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO 80401, USA a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 7 September 2011 Received in revised form 5 August 2012 Accepted 9 October 2012 Available online 17 October 2012 Keywords: Wave energy conversion Heave Computational Fluid Dynamics Reynolds-averaged

  3. HIGH AVERAGE POWER OPTICAL FEL AMPLIFIERS.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BEN-ZVI, ILAN, DAYRAN, D.; LITVINENKO, V.

    2005-08-21

    Historically, the first demonstration of the optical FEL was in an amplifier configuration at Stanford University [l]. There were other notable instances of amplifying a seed laser, such as the LLNL PALADIN amplifier [2] and the BNL ATF High-Gain Harmonic Generation FEL [3]. However, for the most part FELs are operated as oscillators or self amplified spontaneous emission devices. Yet, in wavelength regimes where a conventional laser seed can be used, the FEL can be used as an amplifier. One promising application is for very high average power generation, for instance FEL's with average power of 100 kW or more. The high electron beam power, high brightness and high efficiency that can be achieved with photoinjectors and superconducting Energy Recovery Linacs (ERL) combine well with the high-gain FEL amplifier to produce unprecedented average power FELs. This combination has a number of advantages. In particular, we show that for a given FEL power, an FEL amplifier can introduce lower energy spread in the beam as compared to a traditional oscillator. This properly gives the ERL based FEL amplifier a great wall-plug to optical power efficiency advantage. The optics for an amplifier is simple and compact. In addition to the general features of the high average power FEL amplifier, we will look at a 100 kW class FEL amplifier is being designed to operate on the 0.5 ampere Energy Recovery Linac which is under construction at Brookhaven National Laboratory's Collider-Accelerator Department.

  4. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  5. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  6. Absolute charge calibration of scintillating screens for relativistic electron detection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buck, A.; Popp, A.; Schmid, K.; Karsch, S.; Krausz, F.; Zeil, K.; Jochmann, A.; Kraft, S. D.; Sauerbrey, R.; Cowan, T.; Schramm, U.; Hidding, B.; Kudyakov, T.; Sears, C. M. S.; Veisz, L.; Pawelke, J.

    2010-03-15

    We report on new charge calibrations and linearity tests with high-dynamic range for eight different scintillating screens typically used for the detection of relativistic electrons from laser-plasma based acceleration schemes. The absolute charge calibration was done with picosecond electron bunches at the ELBE linear accelerator in Dresden. The lower detection limit in our setup for the most sensitive scintillating screen (KODAK Biomax MS) was 10 fC/mm{sup 2}. The screens showed a linear photon-to-charge dependency over several orders of magnitude. An onset of saturation effects starting around 10-100 pC/mm{sup 2} was found for some of the screens. Additionally, a constant light source was employed as a luminosity reference to simplify the transfer of a one-time absolute calibration to different experimental setups.

  7. Absolute calibration for a broad range single shot electron spectrometer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Glinec, Y.; Faure, J.; Guemnie-Tafo, A.; Malka, V.; Monard, H.; Larbre, J. P.; De Waele, V.; Marignier, J. L.; Mostafavi, M.

    2006-10-15

    This article gives a detailed description of a single shot electron spectrometer which was used to characterize electron beams produced by laser-plasma interaction. Contrary to conventional electron sources, electron beams from laser-plasma accelerators can produce a broad range of energies. Therefore, diagnosing these electron spectra requires specific attention and experimental development. Here, we provide an absolute calibration of the Lanex Kodak Fine screen on a laser-triggered radio frequency picosecond electron accelerator. The efficiency of scintillating screens irradiated by electron beams has never been investigated so far. This absolute calibration is then compared to charge measurements from an integrating current transformer for quasimonoenergetic electron spectra from laser-plasma interaction.

  8. New applications for high average power beams

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Neau, E.L.; Turman, B.N.; Patterson, E.L.

    1993-08-01

    The technology base formed by the development of high peak power simulators, laser drivers, FEL`s, and ICF drivers from the early 60`s through the late 80`s is being extended to high average power short-pulse machines with the capabilities of supporting new types of manufacturing processes and performing new roles in environmental cleanup applications. This paper discusses a process for identifying and developing possible commercial applications, specifically those requiring very high average power levels of hundreds of kilowatts to perhaps megawatts. The authors discuss specific technology requirements and give examples of application development efforts. The application development work is directed at areas that can possibly benefit from the high specific energies attainable with short pulse machines.

  9. Table 1. Real Average Transportation and Delivered Costs of Coal...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Real Average Transportation and Delivered Costs of Coal, By Year and Primary Transport Mode" "Year","Average Transportation Cost of Coal (Dollars per Ton)","Average Delivered Cost...

  10. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  11. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  12. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and

  13. A Green's function quantum average atom model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Starrett, Charles Edward

    2015-05-21

    A quantum average atom model is reformulated using Green's functions. This allows integrals along the real energy axis to be deformed into the complex plane. The advantage being that sharp features such as resonances and bound states are broadened by a Lorentzian with a half-width chosen for numerical convenience. An implementation of this method therefore avoids numerically challenging resonance tracking and the search for weakly bound states, without changing the physical content or results of the model. A straightforward implementation results in up to a factor of 5 speed-up relative to an optimized orbital based code.

  14. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  15. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  16. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  17. Lens transmission measurement for an absolute radiation thermometer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hao, X.; Yuan, Z.; Lu, X.

    2013-09-11

    The lens transmission for the National Institute of Metrology of China absolute radiation thermometer is measured by a hybrid method. The results of the lens transmission measurements are 99.002% and 86.792% for filter radiometers with center wavelengths 633 nm and 900 nm, respectively. These results, after correcting for diffraction factors and the size-of-source effect when the lens is incorporated within the radiometer, can be used for measurement of thermodynamic temperature. The expanded uncertainty of the lens transmission measurement system has been evaluated. It is 1.310{sup ?3} at 633 nm and 900 nm, respectively.

  18. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William

    2007-07-03

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  19. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William

    2007-10-02

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  20. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William

    2008-10-21

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  1. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William

    2009-09-01

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  2. Method of differential-phase/absolute-amplitude QAM

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dimsdle, Jeffrey William

    2007-07-17

    A method of quadrature amplitude modulation involving encoding phase differentially and amplitude absolutely, allowing for a high data rate and spectral efficiency in data transmission and other communication applications, and allowing for amplitude scaling to facilitate data recovery; amplitude scale tracking to track-out rapid and severe scale variations and facilitate successful demodulation and data retrieval; 2.sup.N power carrier recovery; incoherent demodulation where coherent carrier recovery is not possible or practical due to signal degradation; coherent demodulation; multipath equalization to equalize frequency dependent multipath; and demodulation filtering.

  3. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  4. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  5. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  6. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  7. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  8. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  9. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  10. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  12. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  13. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  14. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  15. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed wind speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.

  16. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed windmore » speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.« less

  17. THE ABSOLUTE CALIBRATION OF THE EUV IMAGING SPECTROMETER ON HINODE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Warren, Harry P.; Ugarte-Urra, Ignacio; Landi, Enrico

    2014-07-01

    We investigate the absolute calibration of the EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) on Hinode by comparing EIS full-disk mosaics with irradiance observations from the EUV Variability Experiment on the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We also use extended observations of the quiet corona above the limb combined with a simple differential emission measure model to establish new effective area curves that incorporate information from the most recent atomic physics calculations. We find that changes to the EIS instrument sensitivity are a complex function of both time and wavelength. We find that the sensitivity is decaying exponentially with time and that the decay constants vary with wavelength. The EIS short wavelength channel shows significantly longer decay times than the long wavelength channel.

  18. Biochip Image Grid Normalization Absolute Signal Fluorescence Measurement Using

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2001-04-17

    This software was developed to measure absolute fluorescent intensities of gel pads on a microchip in units defined by a standard fluorescent slide. It can accomodate varying measurement conditions (e.g. exposure time, sensitivity of detector, resolution of detector, etc.) as well as fluorescent microscopes with non-uniform sensitivity across their field of view allowing the user to compare measurements done on different detectors with varying exposure times, sensitivities, and resolutions. The software is designed both tomore » operate Roper Scientific, Inc. cameras and to use image files produced by the program supplied with that equipment for its calculations. the intensity of the gel pad signal is computed so as to reduce background influence.« less

  19. Method and apparatus for making absolute range measurements

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Earl, Dennis D.; Allison, Stephen W.; Cates, Michael R.; Sanders, Alvin J.

    2002-09-24

    This invention relates to a method and apparatus for making absolute distance or ranging measurements using Fresnel diffraction. The invention employs a source of electromagnetic radiation having a known wavelength or wavelength distribution, which sends a beam of electromagnetic radiation through a screen at least partially opaque at the wavelength. The screen has an aperture sized so as to produce a Fresnel diffraction pattern. A portion of the beam travels through the aperture to a detector spaced some distance from the screen. The detector detects the central intensity of the beam as well as a set of intensities displaced from a center of the aperture. The distance from the source to the target can then be calculated based upon the known wavelength, aperture radius, and beam intensity.

  20. Absolute properties of the triple star HP Aurigae

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lacy, Claud H. Sandberg; Burks, Charles L.; Torres, Guillermo; Wolf, Marek E-mail: clburks@email.uark.edu E-mail: wolf@cesnet.cz

    2014-01-01

    New photometric, spectroscopic, and eclipse timing observations of the eclipsing binary star HP Aur allow for very accurate orbital determinations, even in the presence of a third body and transient starspot activity. The eclipsing binary masses are determined to an accuracy of ±0.4% and the radii to ±0.6%. The masses are 0.9543 ± 0.0041 and 0.8094 ± 0.0036 solar masses, and the radii are 1.0278 ± 0.0042 and 0.7758 ± 0.0034 solar radii, respectively. The orbital period in the outer orbit is accurately determined for the first time: 4.332 ± 0.011 yr. A comparison with current theories of stellar evolution shows that the components' absolute properties can be well-matched by the current models at an age of about 7 billion years.

  1. Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer to Measure the Absolute Outdoor Longwave Irradiance with Traceability to International System of Units, SI

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reda, I.; Zeng, J.; Scheuch, J.; Hanssen, L.; Wilthan, B.; Myers, D.; Stoffel, T.

    2012-03-01

    This article describes a method of measuring the absolute outdoor longwave irradiance using an absolute cavity pyrgeometer (ACP), U.S. Patent application no. 13/049, 275. The ACP consists of domeless thermopile pyrgeometer, gold-plated concentrator, temperature controller, and data acquisition. The dome was removed from the pyrgeometer to remove errors associated with dome transmittance and the dome correction factor. To avoid thermal convection and wind effect errors resulting from using a domeless thermopile, the gold-plated concentrator was placed above the thermopile. The concentrator is a dual compound parabolic concentrator (CPC) with 180{sup o} view angle to measure the outdoor incoming longwave irradiance from the atmosphere. The incoming irradiance is reflected from the specular gold surface of the CPC and concentrated on the 11 mm diameter of the pyrgeometer's blackened thermopile. The CPC's interior surface design and the resulting cavitation result in a throughput value that was characterized by the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The ACP was installed horizontally outdoor on an aluminum plate connected to the temperature controller to control the pyrgeometer's case temperature. The responsivity of the pyrgeometer's thermopile detector was determined by lowering the case temperature and calculating the rate of change of the thermopile output voltage versus the changing net irradiance. The responsivity is then used to calculate the absolute atmospheric longwave irradiance with an uncertainty estimate (U{sub 95}) of {+-}3.96 W m{sup 02} with traceability to the International System of Units, SI. The measured irradiance was compared with the irradiance measured by two pyrgeometers calibrated by the World Radiation Center with traceability to the Interim World Infrared Standard Group, WISG. A total of 408 readings were collected over three different nights. The calculated irradiance measured by the ACP was 1.5 W/m{sup 2} lower than that

  2. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  3. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  4. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  5. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  6. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  7. Annual average efficiency of a solar thermochemical reactor....

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Annual average efficiency of a solar thermochemical reactor. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Annual average efficiency of a solar thermochemical reactor. Abstract not ...

  8. ARM: Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 60-min averaging...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Citation Details In-Document Search Title: ARM: Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 60-min averaging interval Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 60-min averaging ...

  9. ARM: Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 10-min averaging...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 10-min averaging interval Title: ARM: Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 10-min averaging interval Temperature Profiles from Raman ...

  10. ARM: AOS Wet Nephelometer 1 Minute Averages (Dataset) | Data...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: ARM: AOS Wet Nephelometer 1 Minute Averages AOS Wet Nephelometer 1 Minute Averages Authors: Scott Smith ; Cynthia Salwen ; Janek Uin ; Gunnar Senum ; Stephen Springston ; ...

  11. ARM: AOS Dry Nephelometer 1 Minute Averages (Dataset) | Data...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: ARM: AOS Dry Nephelometer 1 Minute Averages AOS Dry Nephelometer 1 Minute Averages Authors: Scott Smith ; Cynthia Salwen ; Janek Uin ; Gunnar Senum ; Stephen Springston ; ...

  12. High Average Brightness Photocathode Development for FEL Applications...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Conference: High Average Brightness Photocathode Development for FEL Applications Citation Details In-Document Search Title: High Average Brightness Photocathode Development for...

  13. THE ABSOLUTE MAGNITUDE OF RRc VARIABLES FROM STATISTICAL PARALLAX

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kollmeier, Juna A.; Burns, Christopher R.; Thompson, Ian B.; Preston, George W.; Crane, Jeffrey D.; Madore, Barry F.; Morrell, Nidia; Prieto, José L.; Shectman, Stephen; Simon, Joshua D.; Villanueva, Edward; Szczygieł, Dorota M.; Gould, Andrew; Sneden, Christopher; Dong, Subo

    2013-09-20

    We present the first definitive measurement of the absolute magnitude of RR Lyrae c-type variable stars (RRc) determined purely from statistical parallax. We use a sample of 242 RRc variables selected from the All Sky Automated Survey for which high-quality light curves, photometry, and proper motions are available. We obtain high-resolution echelle spectra for these objects to determine radial velocities and abundances as part of the Carnegie RR Lyrae Survey. We find that M{sub V,RRc} = 0.59 ± 0.10 at a mean metallicity of [Fe/H] = –1.59. This is to be compared with previous estimates for RRab stars (M{sub V,RRab} = 0.76 ± 0.12) and the only direct measurement of an RRc absolute magnitude (RZ Cephei, M{sub V,RRc} = 0.27 ± 0.17). We find the bulk velocity of the halo relative to the Sun to be (W{sub π}, W{sub θ}, W{sub z} ) = (12.0, –209.9, 3.0) km s{sup –1} in the radial, rotational, and vertical directions with dispersions (σ{sub W{sub π}},σ{sub W{sub θ}},σ{sub W{sub z}}) = (150.4, 106.1, 96.0) km s{sup -1}. For the disk, we find (W{sub π}, W{sub θ}, W{sub z} ) = (13.0, –42.0, –27.3) km s{sup –1} relative to the Sun with dispersions (σ{sub W{sub π}},σ{sub W{sub θ}},σ{sub W{sub z}}) = (67.7,59.2,54.9) km s{sup -1}. Finally, as a byproduct of our statistical framework, we are able to demonstrate that UCAC2 proper-motion errors are significantly overestimated as verified by UCAC4.

  14. INTERPRETATION OF THE ARCADE 2 ABSOLUTE SKY BRIGHTNESS MEASUREMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seiffert, M.; Levin, S. M.; Fixsen, D. J.; Kogut, A.; Wollack, E.; Limon, M.; Lubin, P. M.; Mirel, P.; Singal, J.; Villela, T.; Wuensche, C. A.

    2011-06-10

    We use absolutely calibrated data between 3 and 90 GHz from the 2006 balloon flight of the ARCADE 2 instrument, along with previous measurements at other frequencies, to constrain models of extragalactic emission. Such emission is a combination of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) monopole, Galactic foreground emission, the integrated contribution of radio emission from external galaxies, any spectral distortions present in the CMB, and any other extragalactic source. After removal of estimates of foreground emission from our own Galaxy, and an estimated contribution of external galaxies, we present fits to a combination of the flat-spectrum CMB and potential spectral distortions in the CMB. We find 2{sigma} upper limits to CMB spectral distortions of {mu} < 6 x 10{sup -4} and |Y{sub ff}| < 1 x 10{sup -4}. We also find a significant detection of a residual signal beyond that, which can be explained by the CMB plus the integrated radio emission from galaxies estimated from existing surveys. This residual signal may be due to an underestimated galactic foreground contribution, an unaccounted for contribution of a background of radio sources, or some combination of both. The residual signal is consistent with emission in the form of a power law with amplitude 18.4 {+-} 2.1 K at 0.31 GHz and a spectral index of -2.57 {+-} 0.05.

  15. Method and apparatus for making absolute range measurements

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Allison, Stephen W. (Knoxville, TN); Cates, Michael R. (Oak Ridge, TN); Key, William S. (Knoxville, TN); Sanders, Alvin J. (Knoxville, TN); Earl, Dennis D. (Knoxville, TN)

    1999-01-01

    This invention relates to a method and apparatus for making absolute distance or ranging measurements using Fresnel diffraction. The invention employs a source of electromagnetic radiation having a known wavelength or wavelength distribution, which sends a beam of electromagnetic radiation through an object which causes it to be split (hereinafter referred to as a "beamsplitter"), and then to a target. The beam is reflected from the target onto a screen containing an aperture spaced a known distance from the beamsplitter. The aperture is sized so as to produce a Fresnel diffraction pattern. A portion of the beam travels through the aperture to a detector, spaced a known distance from the screen. The detector detects the central intensity of the beam. The distance from the object which causes the beam to be split to the target can then be calculated based upon the known wavelength, aperture radius, beam intensity, and distance from the detector to the screen. Several apparatus embodiments are disclosed for practicing the method embodiments of the present invention.

  16. Method and apparatus for making absolute range measurements

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Allison, S.W.; Cates, M.R.; Key, W.S.; Sanders, A.J.; Earl, D.D.

    1999-06-22

    This invention relates to a method and apparatus for making absolute distance or ranging measurements using Fresnel diffraction. The invention employs a source of electromagnetic radiation having a known wavelength or wavelength distribution, which sends a beam of electromagnetic radiation through an object which causes it to be split (hereinafter referred to as a beam splitter''), and then to a target. The beam is reflected from the target onto a screen containing an aperture spaced a known distance from the beam splitter. The aperture is sized so as to produce a Fresnel diffraction pattern. A portion of the beam travels through the aperture to a detector, spaced a known distance from the screen. The detector detects the central intensity of the beam. The distance from the object which causes the beam to be split to the target can then be calculated based upon the known wavelength, aperture radius, beam intensity, and distance from the detector to the screen. Several apparatus embodiments are disclosed for practicing the method embodiments of the present invention. 9 figs.

  17. Precision absolute-value amplifier for a precision voltmeter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hearn, W.E.; Rondeau, D.J.

    1982-10-19

    Bipolar inputs are afforded by the plus inputs of first and second differential input amplifiers. A first gain determining resistor is connected between the minus inputs of the differential amplifiers. First and second diodes are connected between the respective minus inputs and the respective outputs of the differential amplifiers. First and second FETs have their gates connected to the outputs of the amplifiers, while their respective source and drain circuits are connected between the respective minus inputs and an output lead extending to a load resistor. The output current through the load resistor is proportional to the absolute value of the input voltage difference between the bipolar input terminals. A third differential amplifier has its plus input terminal connected to the load resistor. A second gain determining resistor is connected between the minus input of the third differential amplifier and a voltage source. A third FET has its gate connected to the output of the third amplifier. The source and drain circuit of the third transistor is connected between the minus input of the third amplifier and a voltage-frequency converter, constituting an output device. A polarity detector is also provided, comprising a pair of transistors having their inputs connected to the outputs of the first and second differential amplifiers. The outputs of the polarity detector are connected to gates which switch the output of the voltage-frequency converter between up and down counting outputs.

  18. Precision absolute value amplifier for a precision voltmeter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hearn, William E.; Rondeau, Donald J.

    1985-01-01

    Bipolar inputs are afforded by the plus inputs of first and second differential input amplifiers. A first gain determining resister is connected between the minus inputs of the differential amplifiers. First and second diodes are connected between the respective minus inputs and the respective outputs of the differential amplifiers. First and second FETs have their gates connected to the outputs of the amplifiers, while their respective source and drain circuits are connected between the respective minus inputs and an output lead extending to a load resister. The output current through the load resister is proportional to the absolute value of the input voltage difference between the bipolar input terminals. A third differential amplifier has its plus input terminal connected to the load resister. A second gain determining resister is connected between the minus input of the third differential amplifier and a voltage source. A third FET has its gate connected to the output of the third amplifier. The source and drain circuit of the third transistor is connected between the minus input of the third amplifier and a voltage-frequency converter, constituting an output device. A polarity detector is also provided, comprising a pair of transistors having their inputs connected to the outputs of the first and second differential amplifiers. The outputs of the polarity detector are connected to gates which switch the output of the voltage-frequency converter between up and down counting outputs.

  19. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  20. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  1. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  2. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...

  3. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  4. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  5. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  6. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  7. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and ...

  8. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  9. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... RIT forecasting is saving costs and improving operational practices for IPC and helping integrate wind power more efficiently and cost effectively. Figure 3 shows how the ...

  10. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Cost Assignment - Only a few respondents partly or fully recover forecasting costs from variable generators. Many simply absorb the costs, possibly viewing them as relatively ...

  11. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  12. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... The licensing arrangement helps to facilitate transfer of the statistical learning algorithms developed in the project to industry use. A leading forecast provider in the United ...

  13. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  14. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  15. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  16. Fact #889: September 7, 2015 Average Diesel Price Lower than...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    9: September 7, 2015 Average Diesel Price Lower than Gasoline for the First Time in Six Years Fact 889: September 7, 2015 Average Diesel Price Lower than Gasoline for the First ...

  17. Fact #849: December 1, 2014 Midsize Hybrid Cars Averaged 51%...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    9: December 1, 2014 Midsize Hybrid Cars Averaged 51% Better Fuel Economy than Midsize Non-Hybrid Cars in 2014 Fact 849: December 1, 2014 Midsize Hybrid Cars Averaged 51% Better ...

  18. Fact #835: August 25, 2014 Average Annual Gasoline Pump Price...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    35: Average Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2013 fotw835web.xlsx (21.31 KB) More Documents & Publications Fact 915: March 7, 2016 Average Historical Annual Gasoline Pump Price, ...

  19. Fact #693: September 19, 2011 Average Vehicle Footprint for Cars...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    It is calculated as the product of the wheelbase and the average track width of the vehicle. The upcoming Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards have fuel economy targets ...

  20. Fact #870: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    0: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress, 1978-2014 - Dataset Fact 870: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress, 1978-2014 - Dataset Excel file and ...

  1. Technical analysis in short-term uranium price forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schramm, D.S.

    1990-03-01

    As market participants anticipate the end of the current uranium price decline and its subsequent reversal, increased attention will be focused upon forecasting future price movements. Although uranium is economically similar to other mineral commodities, it is questionable whether methodologies used to forecast price movements of such commodities may be successfully applied to uranium.

  2. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  3. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  4. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  5. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  6. Machine Learning Based Multi-Physical-Model Blending for Enhancing Renewable Energy Forecast -- Improvement via Situation Dependent Error Correction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lu, Siyuan; Hwang, Youngdeok; Khabibrakhmanov, Ildar; Marianno, Fernando J.; Shao, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Hamann, Hendrik F.

    2015-07-15

    With increasing penetration of solar and wind energy to the total energy supply mix, the pressing need for accurate energy forecasting has become well-recognized. Here we report the development of a machine-learning based model blending approach for statistically combining multiple meteorological models for improving the accuracy of solar/wind power forecast. Importantly, we demonstrate that in addition to parameters to be predicted (such as solar irradiance and power), including additional atmospheric state parameters which collectively define weather situations as machine learning input provides further enhanced accuracy for the blended result. Functional analysis of variance shows that the error of individual model has substantial dependence on the weather situation. The machine-learning approach effectively reduces such situation dependent error thus produces more accurate results compared to conventional multi-model ensemble approaches based on simplistic equally or unequally weighted model averaging. Validation over an extended period of time results show over 30% improvement in solar irradiance/power forecast accuracy compared to forecasts based on the best individual model.

  7. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-09-22

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the 'Microbase' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  8. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

  9. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  10. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  11. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  12. Average Depth of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Wells

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Active hurricane season expected to shut-in higher amount of oil and natural gas production An above-normal 2013 hurricane season is expected to cause a median production loss of about 19 million barrels of U.S. crude oil and 46 billion cubic feet of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That's about one-third more than the amount of oil and gas production knocked offline during last year's hurricane season.

  13. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  14. High Average Brightness Photocathode Development for FEL Applications...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: High Average Brightness Photocathode Development for FEL Applications Authors: Rao T. ; Ben-Zvi I. ; Skarita, J. ; Wang, E. Publication Date: 2013-08-26 OSTI Identifier: ...

  15. Turning Bayesian model averaging into Bayesian model combination...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Turning Bayesian model averaging into Bayesian model combination Authors: Carroll, James 1 ; Monteith, Kristine 2 ; Seppi, Kevin 2 ; Martinez, Tony 2 + Show Author ...

  16. "Table 2. Real Average Annual Coal Transportation Costs, By Primary...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Real Average Annual Coal Transportation Costs, By Primary Transport Mode and Supply Region" "(2013 dollars per ton)" "Coal Supply Region",2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "Railroad"...

  17. Table 14a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Constant Dollars" " (constant dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour in ""dollar year"" specific to each AEO)" ...

  18. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to

  19. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  20. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  1. Fact #803: November 11, 2013 Average Number of Transmission Gears...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Average Number of Gears for New Light Vehicles, Model Years 1979-2012 Model Year Average Number of Gears 1979 3.3 1980 3.5 1981 3.5 1982 3.6 1983 3.7 1984 3.7 1985 3.8 1986 3.8 ...

  2. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler ... M Jensen et al., March 2016, DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting ...

  3. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  4. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  5. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  6. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  7. DOE Publishes New Forecast of Energy Savings from LED Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy has just published the latest edition of its biannual report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, which models the...

  8. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  9. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  10. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind ...

  11. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  12. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  13. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  14. New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering illustrates the full site installation, including a new aerosol observing system (far left) and a precipitation radar (far right, with 20-ft tower). The site is located near the Graciosa Island aiport terminal, hidden by the image inset. | Image courtesy of ARM Climate Research Facility. This artist's

  15. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  16. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  17. U.S. average gasoline prices falling to near $2 in December

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    In its new forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said high gasoline production, cheaper winter-grade gasoline, and lower gasoline demand following this summer's peak ...

  18. Fact #870: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1978-2014 - Dataset | Department of Energy 0: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress, 1978-2014 - Dataset Fact #870: April 27, 2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress, 1978-2014 - Dataset Excel file and dataset for Corporate Average Fuel Economy Progress, 1978-2014 fotw#870_web.xlsx (17.92 KB) More Documents & Publications Reactor Pressure Vessel Task of Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Milestone Report on Materials and Machining of Specimens for the ATR-2

  19. U.S. Refiner Sales to End Users (Average) Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Sales Type: Sales to End Users, Average Through Retail Outlets Sales for Resale, Average DTW Rack Bulk Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Show Data By: Formulation/ Grade Sales Type Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 View History Conventional, Average 1.346 1.209 1.450 1.617 1.790 1.894 1994-2016 Conventional Regular 1.305 1.167 1.412 1.576 1.749 1.854 1994-2016 Conventional Midgrade 1.524 1.376 1.601 1.781

  20. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  1. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  2. Does anyone have access to 2012 average residential rates by...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Does anyone have access to 2012 average residential rates by utility company? I'm seeing an inconsistency between the OpenEI website and EIA 861 data set. Home > Groups > Utility...

  3. Fact #915: March 7, 2016 Average Historical Annual Gasoline Pump...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Average Historical Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2015 fotw915web.xlsx (24.76 KB) More Documents & Publications Fact 888: August 31, 2015 Historical Gas Prices - Dataset Fact ...

  4. Fact #624: May 24, 2010 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The final rule for the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards was published in ... The CAFE levels that must be met by the fleet of each manufacturer will be determined by ...

  5. Table 14b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Nominal Dollars" " (nominal dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,200...

  6. Table 14b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Nominal Dollars (nominal dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 ...

  7. Flavor Physics Data from the Heavy Flavor Averaging Group (HFAG)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    The Heavy Flavor Averaging Group (HFAG) was established at the May 2002 Flavor Physics and CP Violation Conference in Philadelphia, and continues the LEP Heavy Flavor Steering Group's tradition of providing regular updates to the world averages of heavy flavor quantities. Data are provided by six subgroups that each focus on a different set of heavy flavor measurements: B lifetimes and oscillation parameters, Semi-leptonic B decays, Rare B decays, Unitarity triangle parameters, B decays to charm final states, and Charm Physics.

  8. Averaged null energy condition violation in a conformally flat spacetime

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Urban, Douglas; Olum, Ken D.

    2010-01-15

    We show that the averaged null energy condition can be violated by a conformally coupled scalar field in a conformally flat spacetime in 3+1 dimensions. The violation is dependent on the quantum state and can be made as large as desired. It does not arise from the presence of anomalies, although anomalous violations are also possible. Since all geodesics in conformally flat spacetimes are achronal, the achronal averaged null energy condition is likewise violated.

  9. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  10. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  11. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  12. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the “Mergedsounding” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  13. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer at $3.94 a gallon

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer at $3.94 a gallon The retail price of diesel fuel is expected to average $3.94 a gallon during the summer driving season that which runs from April through September. That's close to last summer's pump price of $3.95, according to the latest monthly energy outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Demand for distillate fuel, which includes diesel fuel, is expected to be up less than 1 percent from last summer. Daily

  14. Dynamic frequency-domain interferometer for absolute distance measurements with high resolution

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weng, Jidong; Liu, Shenggang; Ma, Heli; Tao, Tianjiong; Wang, Xiang; Liu, Cangli; Tan, Hua

    2014-11-15

    A unique dynamic frequency-domain interferometer for absolute distance measurement has been developed recently. This paper presents the working principle of the new interferometric system, which uses a photonic crystal fiber to transmit the wide-spectrum light beams and a high-speed streak camera or frame camera to record the interference stripes. Preliminary measurements of harmonic vibrations of a speaker, driven by a radio, and the changes in the tip clearance of a rotating gear wheel show that this new type of interferometer has the ability to perform absolute distance measurements both with high time- and distance-resolution.

  15. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  16. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  17. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  18. High average power scaleable thin-disk laser

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Beach, Raymond J.; Honea, Eric C.; Bibeau, Camille; Payne, Stephen A.; Powell, Howard; Krupke, William F.; Sutton, Steven B.

    2002-01-01

    Using a thin disk laser gain element with an undoped cap layer enables the scaling of lasers to extremely high average output power values. Ordinarily, the power scaling of such thin disk lasers is limited by the deleterious effects of amplified spontaneous emission. By using an undoped cap layer diffusion bonded to the thin disk, the onset of amplified spontaneous emission does not occur as readily as if no cap layer is used, and much larger transverse thin disks can be effectively used as laser gain elements. This invention can be used as a high average power laser for material processing applications as well as for weapon and air defense applications.

  19. Turning Bayesian model averaging into Bayesian model combination

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Conference) | SciTech Connect Turning Bayesian model averaging into Bayesian model combination Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Turning Bayesian model averaging into Bayesian model combination Authors: Carroll, James [1] ; Monteith, Kristine [2] ; Seppi, Kevin [2] ; Martinez, Tony [2] + Show Author Affiliations Los Alamos National Laboratory BYU Publication Date: 2011-07-28 OSTI Identifier: 1084524 Report Number(s): LA-UR-11-04419; LA-UR-11-4419 DOE Contract Number: AC52-06NA25396

  20. U.S. average gasoline price up slightly

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    U.S. average gasoline price up slightly The U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline rose slightly to $3.65 a gallon on Monday. That's up a tenth of a penny from a week ago, based on the weekly price survey by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Pump prices were highest in the West Coast region at 3.89 a gallon, down 4.4 cents from a week ago. Prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast States at 3.34 a gallon, down 2.6 cents. Jonathan Cogan for EIA,

  1. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  2. Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts May 11, 2016 - 6:48pm Addthis Balancing the power grid is an art-or at least a scientific study in chaos-and the Energy Department is hoping wind energy can take a greater role in the act. Yet, the intermittency of wind-sometimes it's blowing, sometimes it's not-makes adding it smoothly to the nation's electrical grid a challenge.

  3. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-02-01

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  4. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  5. Virginia Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential and

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Commercial Consumers by Local Distribution and Market 9.45 8.76 10.20 10.63 12.69 15.51 1989-2016 Commercial Average Price 6.88 6.67 7.18 6.65 7.24 7.22

  6. Speckle averaging system for laser raster-scan image projection

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Tiszauer, Detlev H.; Hackel, Lloyd A.

    1998-03-17

    The viewers' perception of laser speckle in a laser-scanned image projection system is modified or eliminated by the addition of an optical deflection system that effectively presents a new speckle realization at each point on the viewing screen to each viewer for every scan across the field. The speckle averaging is accomplished without introduction of spurious imaging artifacts.

  7. Maryland Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    8.35 18.44 19.08 19.39 13.51 12.72 1989-2015 Commercial Average Price 11.74 10.98 11.61 11.11 9.98 9.56...

  8. Michigan Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2.50 13.65 13.52 13.21 8.93 7.84 1989-2015 Commercial Average Price 8.91 9.31 9.17 9.05 7.46 6.75...

  9. Parity-violating anomalies and the stationarity of stochastic averages

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reuter, M.

    1988-01-15

    Within the framework of stochastic quantization the parity-violating anomalies in odd space-time dimensions are derived from the asymptotic stationarity of the stochastic average of a certain fermion bilinear. Contrary to earlier attempts, this method yields the correct anomalies for both massive and massless fermions.

  10. Pennsylvania Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential and

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Commercial Consumers by Local Distribution and Ma 8.75 8.64 9.51 9.91 11.30 15.62 1989-2016 Commercial Average Price 7.19 7.44 8.21 8.12 8.74 10.69