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We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
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1

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Macroeconomic Activity...  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Macroeconomic Activity Module Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Macroeconomic Activity Module The Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) represents the interaction between the...

2

The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

When professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analyzed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.

Allan W. Gregory; James Yetman; Jel Codes C E; Robert Eggert; Fred Joutz

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II uses the method of structural factor analysis to study the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in a data rich environment. I propose two structural factor models. One is the structural factor augmented vector autoregressive (SFAVAR) model and the other is the structural factor vector autoregressive (SFVAR) model. Compared to the traditional vector autogression (VAR) model, both models incorporate far more information from hundreds of data series, series that can be and are monitored by the Central Bank. Moreover, the factors used are structurally meaningful, a feature that adds to the understanding of the ĂąÂ?Â?black boxĂąÂ? of the monetary transmission mechanism. Both models generate qualitatively reasonable impulse response functions. Using the SFVAR model, both the ĂąÂ?Â?price puzzleĂąÂ? and the ĂąÂ?Â?liquidity puzzleĂąÂ? are eliminated. Chapter III employs the method of structural factor analysis to conduct a forecasting exercise in a data rich environment. I simulate out-of-sample real time forecasting using a structural dynamic factor forecasting model and its variations. I use several structural factors to summarize the information from a large set of candidate explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)ĂąÂ?Â?s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor forecasting models compared to alternatives that include univariate autoregression (AR) model, the VAR model and Stock and WatsonĂąÂ?Â?s (2002) models, especially when forecasting real variables. In chapter IV, we measure U.S. technology shocks by implementing a dual approach, which is based on more reliable price data instead of aggregate quantity data. By doing so, we find the relative volatility of technology shocks and the correlation between output fluctuation and technology shocks to be much smaller than those revealed in most real-business-cycle (RBC) studies. Our results support the findings of Burnside, Eichenbaum and Rebelo (1996), who showed that the correlation between technology shocks and output is exaggerated in the RBC literature. This suggests that one should examine other sources of fluctuations for a better understanding of the business cycle phenomena.

Liu, Dandan

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

4

EIA-Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Macroeconomic Activity  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Macroeconomic Activity Module Macroeconomic Activity Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Macroeconomic Activity Module The Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) represents the interaction between the U.S. economy as a whole and energy markets. The rate of growth of the economy, measured by the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is a key determinant of the growth in demand for energy. Associated economic factors, such as interest rates and disposable income, strongly influence various elements of the supply and demand for energy. At the same time, reactions to energy markets by the aggregate economy, such as a slowdown in economic growth resulting from increasing energy prices, are also reflected in this module. A detailed description of the MAM is provided in the EIA publication, Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M065(2007), (Washington, DC, January 2007).

5

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Macroeconomic  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Macroeconomic Activity Module Macroeconomic Activity Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Macroeconomic Activity Module The Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) represents the interaction between the U.S. economy as a whole and energy markets. The rate of growth of the economy, measured by the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is a key determinant of the growth in demand for energy. Associated economic factors, such as interest rates and disposable income, strongly influence various elements of the supply and demand for energy. At the same time, reactions to energy markets by the aggregate economy, such as a slowdown in economic growth resulting from increasing energy prices, are also reflected in this module. A detailed description of the MAM is provided in the EIA publication, Model Document>ation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M065(2009), (Washington, DC, January 2009).

6

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 - Macroeconomic  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Macroeconomic Activity Module Macroeconomic Activity Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Macroeconomic Activity Module The Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) represents the interaction between the U.S. economy as a whole and energy markets. The rate of growth of the economy, measured by the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is a key determinant of the growth in demand for energy. Associated economic factors, such as interest rates and disposable income, strongly influence various elements of the supply and demand for energy. At the same time, reactions to energy markets by the aggregate economy, such as a slowdown in economic growth resulting from increasing energy prices, are also reflected in this module. A detailed description of the MAM is provided in the EIA publication, Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M065(2007), (Washington, DC, January 2007).

7

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Macroeconomic  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Macroeconomic Activity Module Macroeconomic Activity Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Macroeconomic Activity Module The Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) represents the interaction between the U.S. economy as a whole and energy markets. The rate of growth of the economy, measured by the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is a key determinant of the growth in demand for energy. Associated economic factors, such as interest rates and disposable income, strongly influence various elements of the supply and demand for energy. At the same time, reactions to energy markets by the aggregate economy, such as a slowdown in economic growth resulting from increasing energy prices, are also reflected in this module. A detailed description of the MAM is provided in the EIA publication, Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M065(2008), (Washington, DC, January 2008).

8

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

Information Center

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks, is capable of explaining the highly positive correlation across the industrialized countries' inflation even though their cross-country correlation in money growth rate is negligible. The structure of this model generates cross-country correlations of inflation, output and consumption that appear to closely correspond to the data. Additionally, this model can explain the internal correlation between inflation and output observed in the data. The second essay presents two important results. First, gains from monetary policy cooperation are different from zero when the elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported goods consumption is different from one. Second, when monetary policy is endogenous in a two-country model, the only Nash equilibria supported by this model are those that are symmetrical. That is, all exporting firms in both countries choose to price in their own currency, or all exporting firms in both countries choose to price in the importer's currency. The last essay provides both conditional and unconditional predictive ability evaluations of the aluminum futures contracts prices, by using five different econometric models, in forecasting the aluminum spot price monthly return 3, 15, and 27-months ahead for the sample period 1989.01-2010.10. From these evaluations, the best model in forecasting the aluminum spot price monthly return 3 and 15 months ahead is followed by a (VAR) model whose variables are aluminum futures contracts price, aluminum spot price and risk free interest rate, whereas for the aluminum spot price monthly return 27 months ahead is a single equation model in which the aluminum spot price today is explained by the aluminum futures price 27 months earlier. Finally, it shows that iterated multiperiod-ahead time series forecasts have a better conditional out-of-sample forecasting performance of the aluminum spot price monthly return when an estimated (VAR) model is used as a forecasting tool.

Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Macroeconomic Activity  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Macroeconomic Activity Module Macroeconomic Activity Module The Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) represents the interaction between the U.S. economy as a whole and energy markets. The rate of growth of the economy, measured by the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is a key determinant of the growth in demand for energy. Associated economic factors, such as interest rates and disposable income, strongly influence various elements of the supply and demand for energy. At the same time, reactions to energy markets by the aggregate economy, such as a slowdown in economic growth resulting from increasing energy prices, are also reflected in this module. A detailed description of the MAM is provided in the EIA publication, Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module

11

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 - Macroeconomic Activity  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

macroeconomic.gif (5367 bytes) macroeconomic.gif (5367 bytes) The Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) represents the interaction between the U.S. economy as a whole and energy markets. The rate of growth of the economy, measured by the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is a key determinant of the growth in demand for energy. Associated economic factors, such as interest rates and disposable income, strongly influence various elements of the supply and demand for energy. At the same time, reactions to energy markets by the aggregate economy, such as a slowdown in economic growth resulting from increasing energy prices, are also reflected in this module. A detailed description of the MAM is provided in the EIA publication, Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M065, (Washington, DC, February 1994).

12

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - Macroeconomic Activity  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Macroeconomic Activity Module The Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) represents the interaction between the U.S. economy as a whole and energy markets. The rate of growth of the economy, measured by the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is a key determinant of the growth in demand for energy. Associated economic factors, such as interest rates and disposable income, strongly influence various elements of the supply and demand for energy. At the same time, reactions to energy markets by the aggregate economy, such as a slowdown in economic growth resulting from increasing energy prices, are also reflected in this module. A detailed description of the MAM is provided in the EIA publication, Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module

13

Assumptions  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

to the to the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 December 1997 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Macroeconomic Activity Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 International Energy Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Household Expenditures Module. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Residential Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Commercial Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Industrial Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Transportation Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Electricity Market Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Oil and Gas Supply Module

14

AEO Assumptions  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

for the for the Annual Energy Outlook 1997 December 1996 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 Energy Information Administration/Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 1997 Contents Page Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Macroeconomic Activity Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 International Energy Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Household Expenditures Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Residential Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Commercial Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

15

Assumptions  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Macroeconomic Activity Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 International Energy Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Household Expenditures Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Residential Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Commercial Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Industrial Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Transportation Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Electricity Market Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Oil and Gas Supply Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 Petroleum Market Module. . . . . . . . . . . . .

16

Annual Energy Outlook 2001-Appendix G: Major Assumptions for the Forecasts  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasts Forecasts Summary of the AEO2001 Cases/ Scenarios - Appendix Table G1 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Model Results (Formats - PDF, ZIP) - Appendix Tables - Reference Case - 1998 to 2020 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Download Report - Entire AEO2001 (PDF) - AEO2001 by Chapters (PDF) bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Acronyms bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Contacts Related Links bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Assumptions to the AEO2001 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Supplemental Data to the AEO2001 (Only available on the Web) - Regional and more detailed AEO 2001 Reference Case Results - 1998, 2000 to 2020 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) NEMS Conference bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Forecast Homepage bullet1.gif (843 bytes) EIA Homepage Appendix G Major Assumptions for the Forecasts Component Modules Major Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 2001

17

The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasters,” Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 28, No. 2, Mar,of Macroeconomic Forecasting” Journal of Macroeconomics,of Federal Reserve Forecasting,” Journal of Macroeconomics,

Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2000 - Macroeconomic  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Macroeconomic assessment at EIA involves several modes of analysis. The first type of analysis, used in forecasting the Annual Energy Outlook where energy prices change, uses kernel regression and response surface techniques to mimic the response of larger macroeconomic and industrial models. This mode of analysis requires a given economic baseline and then calculates the economic impacts of changing energy prices, calculated from the chosen growth path. The economic growth cases are derived from the larger core models and can reflect either high, low, or reference case growth assumptions. Analyzing economic impacts from energy price changes uses the macroeconomic activity module (MAM) within NEMS and provides a subset of the macroeconomic variables available in the larger core models. The composition of the subset is determined by the other energy modules in NEMS, as they use various macroeconomic concepts as assumptions to their particular energy model.

19

Macroeconomic Activity Module  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

d022412A. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2012 18 Macroeconomic Activity Module To reflect uncertainty in the projection of...

20

Residential Appliance Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

LBL-34046 UC-350 Residential Appliance Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting. DE-AC03-76SF00098 #12;i ABSTRACT This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

EIA - The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003-Macroeconomic  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Macroeconomic Activity Module Macroeconomic Activity Module The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003 Macroeconomic Activity Module The Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) links NEMS to the rest of the economy by providing projections of economic driver variables for use by the supply, demand, and conversion modules of NEMS. The derivation of the baseline macroeconomic forecast lays a foundation for the determination of the energy demand and supply forecast. MAM is used to present alternative macroeconomic growth cases to provide a range of uncertainty about the growth potential for the economy and its likely consequences for the energy system. MAM is also able to address the macroeconomic impacts associated with changing energy market conditions, such as alternative world oil price assumptions. Outside of the Annual Energy Outlook setting, MAM represents a system of linked modules which can assess the potential impacts on the economy of changes in energy events or policy proposals. These economic impacts then feed back into NEMS for an integrated solution. MAM consists of five modules:

22

Forecasting US CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

F. Hendry (eds), Economic Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing,W. : 2002, Macroeconomic forecasting using di?usion indexes,2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country

Steinhauser, Ralf; Auffhammer, Maximilian

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

LBL-34045 UC-1600 Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting-uses include Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC). Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the HVAC module in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed

24

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Eighth Electric Utility Forecasting Symposium in Baltimore,Development of a Residential Forecasting Database. Lawrenceand Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1.

Johnson, F.X.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Macroeconomic Activity Module  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 2013 (AEO2013). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code

2013-04-10T23:59:59.000Z

26

Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Development of a Residential Forecasting Database. Lawrenceand Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1.and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1.

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 1998 - Macroeconomic...  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

of the Underlying Core Models Macroeconomic assessment at EIA involves several modes of analysis. The first type of analysis, used in forecasting the Annual Energy Outlook where...

29

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

energy policy initiatives (EIA 1990). Utilities rely on end-use forecasting models in order to assess market trends

Johnson, F.X.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Macroeconomic Activity Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This page intentionally left blank This page intentionally left blank 19 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook2011 Macroeconomic Activity Module The Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) represents the interaction between the U.S. economy as a whole and energy markets. The rate of growth of the economy, measured by the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is a key determinant of the growth in demand for energy. Associated economic factors, such as interest rates and disposable income, strongly influence various elements of the supply and demand for energy. At the same time, reactions to energy markets by the aggregate economy, such as a slowdown in economic growth resulting from increasing energy prices, are also reflected in this module.

31

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A comparison of national energy consumption by fuel typeenergy consumption in homes under differing assumptions, scenarios, and policies. At the national

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

G. Koomey. 1994. Residential Appliance Data, Assumptions andunits) Table A 3 : Number of Appliances in Existing Homes (sector, including appliances and heating, ventilation, and

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Household Expenditures  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Key Assumptions Key Assumptions The historical input data used to develop the HEM version for the AEO2000 consists of recent household survey responses, aggregated to the desired level of detail. Two surveys performed by the Energy Information Administration are included in the AEO2000 HEM database, and together these input data are used to develop a set of baseline household consumption profiles for the direct fuel expenditure analysis. These surveys are the 1997 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) and the 1991 Residential Transportation Energy Consumption Survey (RTECS). HEM uses the consumption forecast by NEMS for the residential and transportation sectors as inputs to the disaggregation algorithm that results in the direct fuel expenditure analysis. Household end-use and personal transportation service consumption are obtained by HEM from the NEMS Residential and Transportation Demand Modules. Household disposable income is adjusted with forecasts of total disposable income from the NEMS Macroeconomic Activity Module.

34

Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R. [and others

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

International Macroeconomic Data Set | Data.gov  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

International Macroeconomic Data Set International Macroeconomic Data Set Agriculture Community Menu DATA APPS EVENTS DEVELOPER STATISTICS COLLABORATE ABOUT Agriculture You are here Data.gov » Communities » Agriculture » Data International Macroeconomic Data Set Dataset Summary Description The International Macroeconomic Data Set provides data from 1969 through 2020 for real (adjusted for inflation) gross domestic product (GDP), population, real exchange rates, and other variables for the 190 countries and 34 regions that are most important for U.S. agricultural trade. The data presented here are a key component of the USDA Baseline projections process, and can be used as a benchmark for analyzing the impacts of U.S. and global macroeconomic shocks. The data for the Baseline projections are updated once a year to reflect the assumptions used for the Baseline. The historical data will be revised several times a year as the underlying data evolve.

36

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Macroeconomic Model  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Macroeconomic Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

Brian Murphy

2011-09-29T23:59:59.000Z

37

LBL-34046 UC-350 Residential Appliance Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the U.S. residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (McMenamin et al. 1992). In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70 % of electricity consumption and 30 % of natural gas consumption in the U.S. residential sector (EIA 1993). Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific

J. Hwang; Francis X. Johnson; Richard E. Brown; James W. Hanford; Jonathan G. Koomey

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Methodology for the Assessment of the Macroeconomic Impacts of Stricter CAF. Standards  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

For For a full documentation of the macroeconomic linkage refer to "Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System," January 2002 found on the EIA web site at http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/modeldoc/m065(2002).pdf Methodology for the Assessment of the Macroeconomic Impacts of Stricter CAFÉ Standards This assessment of the economic impacts of CAFÉ standards marks the first time EIA has used the new direct linkage of the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model to NEMS in a policy setting. This methodology assures an internally consistent solution between the energy market concepts forecast by NEMS and the aggregate economy as forecast by the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy. While we refer to DRI- WEFA model as a macro model, the full DRI-WEFA model forecasts more than 1600 detailed concepts covering

39

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Macroeconomic Activity Module Macroeconomic Activity Module This page inTenTionally lefT blank 17 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Macroeconomic Activity Module The Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) represents interactions between the U.S. economy and energy markets. The rate of growth of the economy, measured by the growth in gross domestic product (GDP), is a key determinant of growth in the demand for energy. Associated economic factors, such as interest rates and disposable income, strongly influence various elements of the supply and demand for energy. At the same time, reactions to energy markets by the aggregate economy, such as a slowdown in economic growth resulting from increasing energy prices, are also reflected

40

Essays in macroeconomics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis examines questions in macroeconomics motivated by the 2007-2008 financial crisis and its aftermath. Chapter 1 studies the impact of a housing bust on regional labor reallocation and the labor market. I document ...

Nenov, Plamen T. (Plamen Toshkov)

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 This report summarizes the major assumptions used in the NEMS to generate the AEO2007 projections. Contents (Complete Report) Download complete Report. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Introduction Introduction Section to the Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Report. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Introduction Section to the Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Report. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Macroeconomic Activity Module Macroeconomic Activity Module Section to the Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Report. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.

42

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Table 41  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

> Forecasts >Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook> Download Report Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Adobe Acrobat Reader is required for PDF...

43

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8) 8) Release date: June 2008 Next release date: March 2009 Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Macroeconomic Activity Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 International Energy Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Residential Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Commercial Demand Module. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Industrial Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Transportation Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Electricity Market Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Oil and Gas Supply Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Petroleum Market Module

44

Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions Using Province Level Information  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Garin-Mu˜ oz, T. : 2002, Forecasting china’s carbon dioxideF. X. : 2001, Elements of Forecasting, South-Western College2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country

Auffhammer, Maximilian; Carson, Richard T.

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy and Economic Outlook Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)

46

Macroeconomic Activity Module  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Nonfarm labor productivity is expected to diminish from its current high level to a more sustainable level between 1.8 and 2.6 percent for the remainder of the forecast period...

47

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Assumptions to the Annual Energy  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 This report presents major assumptions of NEMS that are used to generate the projections in the AEO2006. Contents (Complete Report) Download complete Report. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Introduction Introduction Section to the Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 Report. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Introduction Section to the Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 Report. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Macroeconomic Activity Module Macroeconomic Activity Module Section to the Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 Report. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.

48

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Report  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2 2 The commercial module forecasts consumption by fuel 13 at the Census division level using prices from the NEMS energy supply modules, and macroeconomic variables from the NEMS Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM), as well as external data sources (technology characterizations, for example). Energy demands are forecast for ten end-use services 14 for eleven building categories 15 in each of the nine Census divisions (see Figure 5). The model begins by developing forecasts of floorspace for the 99 building category and Census division combinations. Next, the ten end-use service demands required for the projected floorspace are developed. The electricity generation and water and space heating supplied by distributed generation and combined heat and power technologies are projected. Technologies are then

49

Essays in macroeconomics and experiments  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation consists of four chapters on empirical and experimental macroeconomics and other experimental topics. Chapter 1 uses a laboratory experiment to test the predictions of a dynamic global game designed to ...

Shurchkov, Olga

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

50

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Report  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7) 7) Release date: April 2007 Next release date: March 2008 Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Macroeconomic Activity Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 International Energy Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Residential Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Commercial Demand Module. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Industrial Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Transportation Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Electricity Market Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Oil and Gas Supply Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 Petroleum Market Module

51

Three Essays on Price Dynamics and Causations among Energy Markets and Macroeconomic Information  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation examines three important issues in energy markets: price dynamics, information flow, and structural change. We discuss each issue in detail, building empirical time series models, analyzing the results, and interpreting the findings. First, we examine the contemporaneous interdependencies and information flows among crude oil, natural gas, and electricity prices in the United States (US) through the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model, Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) for contemporaneous causal structures and Bernanke factorization for price dynamic processes. Test results show that the DAG from residuals of out-of-sample-forecast is consistent with the DAG from residuals of within-sample-fit. The result supports innovation accounting analysis based on DAGs using residuals of out-of-sample-forecast. Second, we look at the effects of the federal fund rate and/or WTI crude oil price shock on US macroeconomic and financial indicators by using a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model and a graphical model without any deductive assumption. The results show that, in contemporaneous time, the federal fund rate shock is exogenous as the identifying assumption in the Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework of the monetary shock transmission mechanism, whereas the WTI crude oil price return is not exogenous. Third, we examine price dynamics and contemporaneous causality among the price returns of WTI crude oil, gasoline, corn, and the S&P 500. We look for structural break points and then build an econometric model to find the consistent sub-periods having stable parameters in a given VAR framework and to explain recent movements and interdependency among returns. We found strong evidence of two structural breaks and contemporaneous causal relationships among the residuals, but also significant differences between contemporaneous causal structures for each sub-period.

Hong, Sung Wook 1977-

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Annual Energy Outlook 96 Assumptions  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

for for the Annual Energy Outlook 1996 January 1996 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 Introduction This paper presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 1996 (AEO96). In this context, assumptions include general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports listed in the Appendix. 1 A synopsis of NEMS, the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented in The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview. The National Energy Modeling System The projections

53

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 This report summarizes the major assumptions used in the NEMS to generate the AEO2010 projections. Introduction Macroeconomic Activity Module International Energy Module Residential Demand Module Commercial Demand Module Industrial Demand Module Transportation Demand Module Electricity Market Module Oil and Gas Supply Module Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Petroleum Market Module Coal Market Module Renewable Fuels Module PDF (GIF) Appendix A: Handling of Federal and Selected State Legislation and Regulation In the Annual Energy Outlook Past Assumptions Editions Download the Report Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Report Cover. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.

54

Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System April 2013 Independent Statistics & ...

55

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 The Early Release for next year's Annual Energy Outlook will be presented at the John Hopkins Kenney Auditorium on December 14th This report summarizes the major assumptions used in the NEMS to generate the AEO2009 projections. Introduction Macroeconomic Activity Module International Energy Module Residential Demand Module Commercial Demand Module Industrial Demand Module Transportation Demand Module Electricity Market Module Oil and Gas Supply Module Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Petroleum Market Module Coal Market Module Renewable Fuels Module PDF (GIF) Appendix A: Handling of Federal and Selected State Legislation and Regulation In the Annual Energy Outlook Past Assumptions Editions

56

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

LBL-34045 UC-1600 Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

5 UC-1600 Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1 Francis X. Johnson, Richard E. Brown, James W. Hanford, Alan H. Sanstad and...

58

Macroeconomic Real Gross Domestic Product  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Macroeconomic Macroeconomic Real Gross Domestic Product (billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) ............. 15,584 15,680 15,819 15,886 15,970 16,068 16,173 16,295 16,422 16,557 16,701 16,832 15,742 16,127 16,628 Real Disposable Personal Income (billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) ............. 11,502 11,618 11,703 11,757 11,883 11,970 12,057 12,151 12,273 12,363 12,451 12,526 11,645 12,015 12,403 Real Personal Consumption Expend. (billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) ............. 10,644 10,692 10,729 10,813 10,884 10,959 11,036 11,114 11,191 11,264 11,343 11,416 10,719 10,998 11,304 Real Fixed Investment (billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) ............. 2,420 2,458 2,491 2,508 2,551 2,604 2,655 2,700 2,752 2,816 2,885 2,944 2,469 2,627 2,849 Business Inventory Change (billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) .............

59

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Contacts  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Contacts Specific questions about the information in this report may be directed to: Introduction Paul D. Holtberg 202/586-1284 Macroeconomic Activity Module Ronald F. Earley Yvonne Taylor 202/586-1398 202/586-1398 International Energy Module G. Daniel Butler 202/586-9503 Household Expenditures Module/ Residential Demand Module John H. Cymbalsky 202/586-4815 Commercial Demand Module Erin E. Boedecker 202/586-4791 Industrial Demand Module T. Crawford Honeycutt 202/586-1420 Transportation Demand Module John D. Maples 202/586-1757 Electricity Market Module Laura Martin 202/586-1494 Oil and Gas Supply Module/Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Joseph Benneche 202/586-6132 Petroleum Market Module Bill Brown 202/586-8181

60

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Assumptions to the Annual Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 May 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies. Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 3

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Essays on political institutions and macroeconomics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation consists of three chapters on the interaction of political institutions and macroeconomic activity in dynamic environments. Chapter 1 studies the optimal management of taxes and debt in a framework which ...

Yared, Pierre

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

Essays on finance, learning, and macroeconomics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis consists of four essays on finance, learning, and macroeconomics. The first essay studies whether learning can explain why the standard consumption-based asset pricing model produces large pricing errors for ...

Doyle, Joseph Buchman, Jr

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Essays in macroeconomics : liquidity and taxation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis consists of three independent chapters on the Macroeconomics of Liquidity and Taxation. The first chapter studies how concerns about future funding difficulties and liquidity dry ups influence investment ...

Iachan, Felipe Saraiva

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

Essays in macroeconomics and corporate finance  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis examines questions at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance. Chapter 1 studies the persistent effects of a decrease in firms' ability to borrow. I develop a tractable model of deleveraging that emphasizes ...

Goldberg, Jonathan E. (Jonathan Elliot)

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

67

D:\assumptions_2001\assumptions2002\currentassump\demand.vp  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2 2 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Macroeconomic Activity Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 International Energy Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Household Expenditures Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Residential Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Commercial Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Industrial Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Transportation Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Electricity Market Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Oil and Gas Supply Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Petroleum Market Module. . . . . . . . . . . . .

68

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...

69

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

(EIEA2008), the biofuel provisions of the Food, ... and raw materials in each of 21 industries, subject to the delivered prices of energy and macroeconomic

70

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Energy Module Energy Module This page inTenTionally lefT blank 21 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 International Energy Module The LFMM International Energy Module (IEM) simulates the interaction between U.S. and global petroleum markets. It uses assumptions of economic growth and expectations of future U.S. and world crude-like liquids production and consumption to estimate the effects of changes in U.S. liquid fuels markets on the international petroleum market. For each year of the forecast, the LFMM IEM computes BRENT and WTI prices, provides a supply curve of world crude-like liquids, and generates a worldwide oil supply- demand balance with regional detail. The IEM also provides, for each year of the projection period, endogenous and

71

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Macroeconomic Macroeconomic Activity Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 International Energy Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Household Expenditures Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Residential Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Commercial Demand Module. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Industrial Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Transportation Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Electricity Market Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Oil and Gas Supply Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Petroleum Market Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Coal Market Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 Renewable Fuels Module . . . . . . . . . . .

72

Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts—a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...

Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher

1987-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

Forecast Combinations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models’ forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains

Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Footnotes  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Feedback Feedback Related Links Annual Energy Outlook2001 Supplemental Data to the AEO2001 NEMS Conference To Forecasting Home Page EIA Homepage FOOTNOTES [1] Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2001 (AEO2001), DOE/EIA-0383(2001), (Washington, DC, December 2000). [2] NEMS documentation reports are available on the EIA CD-ROM and the EIA Homepage (http://www.eia.gov/bookshelf.html). For ordering information on the CD-ROM, contact STAT-USA's toll free order number: 1-800-STAT-USA or by calling (202) 482-1986. [3] Energy Information Administration, The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2000, DOE/EIA-0581(2000), (Washington, DC, March 2000). [4] The underlying macroeconomic growth cases use Standard and Poor’s DRI February 2000 T250200 and February TO250299 and TP250299.

75

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Introduction  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Introduction Introduction Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 20041 (AEO2004), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports.2 A synopsis of NEMS, the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented in The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview3, which is updated once every two years. The National Energy Modeling System The projections in the AEO2004 were produced with the National Energy Modeling System. NEMS is developed and maintained by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projections of domestic energy-economy markets in the midterm time period and perform policy analyses requested by decisionmakers in the U.S. Congress, the Administration, including DOE Program Offices, and other government agencies.

76

Forecasting overview  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the “naïve method”), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Macroeconomic Activity Module Macroeconomic Activity Module The Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) represents the interaction between the U.S. economy as a whole and energy markets. The rate of growth of the economy, measured by the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is a key determinant of the growth in demand for energy. Associated economic factors, such as interest rates and disposable income, strongly influence various elements of the supply and demand for energy. At the same time, reactions to energy markets by the aggregate economy, such as a slowdown in economic growth resulting from increasing energy prices, are also reflected in this module. A detailed description of the MAM is provided in the EIA publication, Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M065(2003), (Washington, DC, January 2003).

78

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Petroleum Market Module Petroleum Market Module The NEMS Petroleum Market Module (PMM) forecasts petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil (both domestic and imported), petroleum product imports, other refinery inputs including alcohol and ethers, natural gas plant liquids production, and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates capacity expansion and fuel consumption of domestic refineries. The PMM contains a linear programming representation of refining activities in three U.S. regions. This representation provides the marginal costs of production for a number of traditional and new petroleum products. The linear programming results are used to determine end-use product prices for each Census Division using the assumptions and methods described below.106

79

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Household Expenditures Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Household Expenditures Module Household Expenditures Module Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Household Expenditures Module Figure 5. United States Census Divisions. Having problems, call our National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 for help. The Household Expenditures Module (HEM) constructs household energy expenditure profiles using historical survey data on household income, population and demographic characteristics, and consumption and expenditures for fuels for various end-uses. These data are combined with NEMS forecasts of household disposable income, fuel consumption, and fuel expenditures by end-use and household type. The HEM disaggregation algorithm uses these combined results to forecast household fuel consumption and expenditures by income quintile and Census Division (see

80

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Coal Market Module Coal Market Module The NEMS Coal Market Module (CMM) provides forecasts of U.S. coal production, consumption, exports, distribution, and prices. The CMM comprises three functional areas: coal production, coal distribution, and coal exports. A detailed description of the CMM is provided in the EIA publication, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2003, DOE/EIA-M060(2003) (Washington, DC, January 2003). Key Assumptions Coal Production The coal production submodule of the CMM generates a different set of supply curves for the CMM for each year of the forecast. Separate supply curves are developed for each of 11 supply regions and 12 coal types (unique combinations of thermal grade, sulfur content, and mine type). The modeling approach used to construct regional coal supply curves addresses the relationship between the minemouth price of coal and corresponding levels of capacity utilization of mines, mining capacity, labor productivity, and the cost of factor inputs (mining equipment, mine labor, and fuel requirements).

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Household Expenditures Module Household Expenditures Module The Household Expenditures Module (HEM) constructs household energy expenditure profiles using historical survey data on household income, population and demographic characteristics, and consumption and expenditures for fuels for various end-uses. These data are combined with NEMS forecasts of household disposable income, fuel consumption, and fuel expenditures by end-use and household type. The HEM disaggregation algorithm uses these combined results to forecast household fuel consumption and expenditures by income quintile and Census Division. Key Assumptions The historical input data used to develop the HEM version for the AEO2003 consists of recent household survey responses, aggregated to the desired level of detail. Two surveys performed by the Energy Information Administration are included in the AEO2003 HEM database, and together these input data are used to develop a set of baseline household consumption profiles for the direct fuel expenditure analysis. These surveys are the 1997 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) and the 1991 Residential Transportation Energy Consumption Survey (RTECS).

82

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Transportation Demand  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Transportation Demand Module Transportation Demand Module The NEMS Transportation Demand Module estimates energy consumption across the nine Census Divisions and over ten fuel types. Each fuel type is modeled according to fuel-specific technology attributes applicable by transportation mode. Total transportation energy consumption is the sum of energy use in eight transport modes: light-duty vehicles (cars, light trucks, industry sport utility vehicles and vans), commercial light trucks (8501-10,000 lbs), freight trucks (>10,000 lbs), freight and passenger airplanes, freight rail, freight shipping, and miscellaneous transport such as mass transit. Light-duty vehicle fuel consumption is further subdivided into personal usage and commercial fleet consumption. Key Assumptions Macroeconomic Sector Inputs

83

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module The NEMS Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module (NGTDM) derives domestic natural gas production, wellhead and border prices, end-use prices, and flows of natural gas through the regional interstate network, for both a peak (December through March) and off peak period during each forecast year. These are derived by solving for the market equilibrium across the three main components of the natural gas market: the supply component, the demand component, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. In addition, natural gas flow patterns are a function of the pattern in the previous year, coupled with the relative prices of gas supply options as translated to the represented market “hubs.” The major assumptions used within the NGTDM are grouped into five general categories. They relate to (1) the classification of demand into core and noncore transportation service classes, (2) the pricing of transmission and distribution services, (3) pipeline and storage capacity expansion and utilization, and (4) the implementation of recent regulatory reform. A complete listing of NGTDM assumptions and in-depth methodology descriptions are presented in Model Documentation: Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System, Model Documentation 2003, DOE/EIA- M062(2003) (Washington, DC, January 2003).

84

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Introduction Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 20031 (AEO2003), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports.2 A synopsis of NEMS, the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented in The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview.3 The National Energy Modeling System The projections in the AEO2003 were produced with the National Energy Modeling System. NEMS is developed and maintained by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projections of domestic energy-economy markets in the midterm time period and perform policy analyses requested by decisionmakers and analysts in the U.S. Congress, the Department of Energy’s Office of Policy and International Affairs, other DOE offices, and other government agencies.

85

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Report  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

States. States. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes unconventional gas recovery from low permeability formations of sandstone and shale, and coalbeds. Energy Information Administration/Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 93 Figure 7. Oil and Gas Supply Model Regions Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Report #:DOE/EIA-0554(2007) Release date: April 2007 Next release date: March 2008 Primary inputs for the module are varied. One set of key assumptions concerns estimates of domestic technically recoverable oil and gas resources. Other factors affecting the projection include the assumed

86

Assumptions to Annual Energy Outlook - Energy Information ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Analysis & Projections. Monthly and yearly energy forecasts, analysis of energy topics, financial analysis, Congressional reports. Markets & ...

87

Energy conservation and official UK energy forecasts  

SciTech Connect

Behind the latest United Kingdom (UK) official forecasts of energy demand are implicit assumptions about future energy-price elasticities. Mr. Pearce examines the basis of the forecasts and finds that the long-term energy-price elasticities that they imply are two or three times too low. The official forecasts substantially understate the responsiveness of demand to energy price rises. If more-realistic price elasticities were assumed, the official forecasts would imply a zero primary energy-demand growth to 2000. This raises the interesting possibility of a low energy future being brought about entirely by market forces. 15 references, 3 tables.

Pearce, D.

1980-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 - Introduction  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

link.gif (1946 bytes) link.gif (1946 bytes) bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Assumptions to the AEO99 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Supplemental Tables to the AEO99 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) To Forecasting Home Page bullet1.gif (843 bytes) EIA Homepage introduction.gif (4117 bytes) This paper presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 19991 (AEO99), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports.2 A synopsis of NEMS, the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented in The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview.3

89

14.452 Macroeconomic Theory II, Spring 2005  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The basic machines of macroeconomics. Ramsey, Solow, Samuelson-Diamond, RBCs, ISLM, Mundell-Fleming, Fischer-Taylor. How they work, what shortcuts they take, and how they can be used. Half-term subject. From the course ...

Blanchard, Olivier (Olivier J.)

90

R&D Activity Investments and Macroeconomic Determinant Factors.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

?? Investments in R&D activities are essential to firms. Decisions to increase or decrease R&D investments may rely according to changes in macroeconomic factors. The… (more)

Gardell, Pierre

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6) 6) Release date: March 2006 Next release date: March 2007 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Macroeconomic Activity Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 International Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Residential Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Commercial Demand Module. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Industrial Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Transportation Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Electricity Market Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Oil and Gas Supply Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 Petroleum Market Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Coal Market Module

92

Macroeconomic Activity Module (Mam) 1998 (Kernel Regression), Model Documentation  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) serves two functions within the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). First, it provides consistent sets of baselines macroeconomic variables (GDP and components, aggregate prices, interest rates, industrial output, housing starts, commercial floorspace, newcar sales, etc.) which are used by the supply, demand and conversion modules in reaching an energy market equilibrium. Second, it is designed to provide a feedback mechanism that alters the baseline variables during the course of an integrated NEMS run.

Ron Earley

1998-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest Inventory.brewer@forestry.gsi.gov.uk Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume

95

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

96

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast

Greenslade, Diana

97

Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...

W. Y. Chen

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Assumptions to the Annual Energy  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Industrial Demand Module Industrial Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 The NEMS Industrial Demand Module estimates energy consumption by energy source (fuels and feedstocks) for 12 manufacturing and 6 nonmanufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are further subdivided into the energy-intensive manufacturing industries and nonenergy-intensive manufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are modeled through the use of a detailed process flow or end use accounting procedure, whereas the nonmanufacturing industries are modeled with substantially less detail (Table 17). The Industrial Demand Module forecasts energy consumption at the four Census region level (see Figure 5); energy consumption at the Census Division level is estimated by allocating the Census region forecast using the SEDS27 data.

99

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Household Expenditures  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Completed Copy in PDF Format Completed Copy in PDF Format Related Links Annual Energy Outlook2001 Supplemental Data to the AEO2001 NEMS Conference To Forecasting Home Page EIA Homepage Household Expenditures Module Key Assumptions The historical input data used to develop the HEM version for the AEO2001 consists of recent household survey responses, aggregated to the desired level of detail. Two surveys performed by the Energy Information Administration are included in the AEO2001 HEM database, and together these input data are used to develop a set of baseline household consumption profiles for the direct fuel expenditure analysis. These surveys are the 1997 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) and the 1991 Residential Transportation Energy Consumption Survey (RTECS). HEM uses the consumption forecast by NEMS for the residential and

100

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 - Coal Market Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

coal.gif (4423 bytes) coal.gif (4423 bytes) The NEMS Coal Market Module (CMM) provides forecasts of U.S. coal production, consumption, exports, distribution, and prices. The CMM comprises three functional areas: coal production, coal distribution, and coal exports. A detailed description of the CMM is provided in the EIA publication, Model Documentation: Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-MO60. Key Assumptions Coal Production The coal production submodule of the CMM generates a different set of supply curves for the CMM for each year of the forecast. Separate supply curves are developed for each of 11 supply regions, and 12 coal types (unique combinations of thermal grade, sulfur content, and mine type). The modeling approach used to construct regional coal supply curves addresses the relationship between the minemouth price of coal and corresponding levels of coal production, labor productivity, and the cost of factor inputs (mining equipment, mine labor, and fuel requirements).

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Coal Market Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Coal Market Module Coal Market Module The NEMS Coal Market Module (CMM) provides forecasts of U.S. coal production, consumption, exports, distribution, and prices. The CMM comprises three functional areas: coal production, coal distribution, and coal exports. A detailed description of the CMM is provided in the EIA publication, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2001, DOE/EIA-M060(2001) January 2001. Key Assumptions Coal Production The coal production submodule of the CMM generates a different set of supply curves for the CMM for each year of the forecast. Separate supply curves are developed for each of 11 supply regions, and 12 coal types (unique combinations of thermal grade, sulfur content, and mine type). The modeling approach used to construct regional coal supply curves

102

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - Coal Market Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Coal Market Module Coal Market Module The NEMS Coal Market Module (CMM) provides forecasts of U.S. coal production, consumption, exports, distribution, and prices. The CMM comprises three functional areas: coal production, coal distribution, and coal exports. A detailed description of the CMM is provided in the EIA publication, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2002, DOE/EIA-M060(2002) (Washington, DC, January 2002). Key Assumptions Coal Production The coal production submodule of the CMM generates a different set of supply curves for the CMM for each year of the forecast. Separate supply curves are developed for each of 11 supply regions and 12 coal types (unique combinations of thermal grade, sulfur content, and mine type). The modeling approach used to construct regional coal supply curves

103

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Petroleum Market Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Petroleum Market Module Petroleum Market Module Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Petroleum Market Module Figure 8. Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts. Having problems, call our National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 for help. The NEMS Petroleum Market Module (PMM) forecasts petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil (both domestic and imported), petroleum product imports, other refinery inputs including alcohols, ethers, and bioesters natural gas plant liquids production, and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates capacity expansion and fuel consumption of domestic refineries. The PMM contains a linear programming representation of U.S. refining

104

New ZealandWORKING PAPER No. 12/2010 Are Forecast Updates Progressive?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Macro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average, as the actual value is approached. Otherwise, forecast updates would be neutral. The paper proposes a methodology to test whether forecast updates are progressive and whether econometric models are useful in updating forecasts. The data set for the empirical analysis are for Taiwan, where we have three decades of quarterly data available of forecasts and updates of the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate. The actual series for both the inflation rate and the real GDP growth rate are always released by the government one quarter after the release of the revised forecast, and the actual values are not revised after they have been released. Our empirical results suggest that the forecast updates for Taiwan are progressive, and can be explained predominantly by intuition. Additionally, the one-, two- and three-quarter forecast errors are predictable using publicly available information for both the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate, which suggests that the forecasts can be improved.

Chia-lin Chang; Philip Hans Franses; Michael Mcaleer; Chia-lin Chang; Philip Hans Franses; Michael Mcaleer

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Introduction  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Outlook2001 Outlook2001 Supplemental Data to the AEO2001 NEMS Conference To Forecasting Home Page EIA Homepage Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 20011 (AEO2001), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports.2 A synopsis of NEMS, the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented in The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview.3 The National Energy Modeling System The projections in the AEO2001 were produced with the National Energy

106

Forecast Bias Correction: A Second Order Method  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The difference between a model forecast and actual observations is called forecast bias. This bias is due to either incomplete model assumptions and/or poorly known parameter values and initial/boundary conditions. In this paper we discuss a method for estimating corrections to parameters and initial conditions that would account for the forecast bias. A set of simple experiments with the logistic ordinary differential equation is performed using an iterative version of a first order version of our method to compare with the second order version of the method.

Crowell, Sean

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Transportation Demand  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Transportation Demand Module estimates energy consumption across the nine Census Divisions and over ten fuel types. Each fuel type is modeled according to fuel-specific technology attributes applicable by transportation mode. Total transportation energy consumption is the sum of energy use in eight transport modes: light-duty vehicles (cars, light trucks, industry sport utility vehicles and vans), commercial light trucks (8501-10,000 lbs), freight trucks (>10,000 lbs), freight and passenger airplanes, freight rail, freight shipping, mass transit, and miscellaneous transport such as mass transit. Light-duty vehicle fuel consumption is further subdivided into personal usage and commercial fleet consumption. Transportation Demand Module estimates energy consumption across the nine Census Divisions and over ten fuel types. Each fuel type is modeled according to fuel-specific technology attributes applicable by transportation mode. Total transportation energy consumption is the sum of energy use in eight transport modes: light-duty vehicles (cars, light trucks, industry sport utility vehicles and vans), commercial light trucks (8501-10,000 lbs), freight trucks (>10,000 lbs), freight and passenger airplanes, freight rail, freight shipping, mass transit, and miscellaneous transport such as mass transit. Light-duty vehicle fuel consumption is further subdivided into personal usage and commercial fleet consumption. Key Assumptions Macroeconomic Sector Inputs

108

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

109

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons

110

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

eleven building categories14 in each of the nine Census divisions. The model begins by developing forecasts of floorspace for the 99 building category and Census division...

111

The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this “forecast gap.” Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...

2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

112

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Coal Market Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Coal Market Module Coal Market Module Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Coal Market Module The NEMS Coal Market Module (CMM) provides forecasts of U.S. coal production, consumption, exports, imports, distribution, and prices. The CMM comprises three functional areas: coal production, coal distribution, and coal exports. A detailed description of the CMM is provided in the EIA publication, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2004, DOE/EIA-M060(2004) (Washington, DC, 2004). Key Assumptions Coal Production The coal production submodule of the CMM generates a different set of supply curves for the CMM for each year of the forecast. Separate supply curves are developed for each of 11 supply regions and 12 coal types (unique combinations of thermal grade, sulfur content, and mine type). The modeling approach used to construct regional coal supply curves addresses the relationship between the minemouth price of coal and corresponding levels of capacity utilization of mines, mining capacity, labor productivity, and the cost of factor inputs (mining equipment, mine labor, and fuel requirements).

113

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Residential Demand Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Residential Demand Module Residential Demand Module Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Residential Demand Module The NEMS Residential Demand Module forecasts future residential sector energy requirements based on projections of the number of households and the stock, efficiency, and intensity of use of energy-consuming equipment. The Residential Demand Module projections begin with a base year estimates of the housing stock, the types and numbers of energy-consuming appliances servicing the stock, and the “unit energy consumption” by appliance (or UEC—in million Btu per household per year). The projection process adds new housing units to the stock, determines the equipment installed in new units, retires existing housing units, and retires and replaces appliances. The primary exogenous drivers for the module are housing starts by type (single-family, multifamily and mobile homes) and Census Division and prices for each energy source for each of the nine Census Divisions (see Figure 5). The Residential Demand Module also requires projections of available equipment and their installed costs over the forecast horizon. Over time, equipment efficiency tends to increase because of general technological advances and also because of Federal and/or state efficiency standards. As energy prices and available equipment changes over the forecast horizon, the module includes projected changes to the type and efficiency of equipment purchased as well as projected changes in the usage intensity of the equipment stock.

114

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Coal Market Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

The NEMS Coal Market Module (CMM) provides forecasts of U.S. coal production, consumption, exports, distribution, and prices. The CMM comprises three functional areas: coal production, coal distribution, and coal exports. A detailed description of the CMM is provided in the EIA publication, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2000, DOE/EIA-M060(2000) January 2000. The NEMS Coal Market Module (CMM) provides forecasts of U.S. coal production, consumption, exports, distribution, and prices. The CMM comprises three functional areas: coal production, coal distribution, and coal exports. A detailed description of the CMM is provided in the EIA publication, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2000, DOE/EIA-M060(2000) January 2000. Key Assumptions Coal Production The coal production submodule of the CMM generates a different set of supply curves for the CMM for each year of the forecast. Separate supply curves are developed for each of 11 supply regions, and 12 coal types (unique combinations of thermal grade, sulfur content, and mine type). The modeling approach used to construct regional coal supply curves addresses the relationship between the minemouth price of coal and corresponding levels of coal production, labor productivity, and the cost of factor inputs (mining equipment, mine labor, and fuel requirements).

115

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Assumptions to the Annual Energy  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Coal Market Module (CMM) provides forecasts of U.S. coal production, consumption, exports, imports, distribution, and prices. The CMM comprises three functional areas: coal production, coal distribution, and coal exports. A detailed description of the CMM is provided in the EIA publication, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2006, DOE/EIA-M060(2006) (Washington, DC, 2006). Coal Market Module (CMM) provides forecasts of U.S. coal production, consumption, exports, imports, distribution, and prices. The CMM comprises three functional areas: coal production, coal distribution, and coal exports. A detailed description of the CMM is provided in the EIA publication, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2006, DOE/EIA-M060(2006) (Washington, DC, 2006). Key Assumptions Coal Production The coal production submodule of the CMM generates a different set of supply curves for the CMM for each year of the forecast. Forty separate supply curves are developed for each of 14 supply regions, nine coal types (unique combinations of thermal grade and sulfur content), and two mine types (underground and surface). Supply curves are constructed using an econometric formulation that relates the minemouth prices of coal for the supply regions and coal types to a set of independent variables. The independent variables include: capacity utilization of mines, mining capacity, labor productivity, the user cost of capital of mining equipment, and the cost of factor inputs (labor and fuel).

116

The disciplined use of simplifying assumptions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Simplifying assumptions --- everyone uses them but no one's programming tool explicitly supports them. In programming, as in other kinds of engineering design, simplifying assumptions are an important method for dealing with complexity. Given a complex ...

Charles Rich; Richard C. Waters

1982-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

International Journal of Forecasting 26 (2010) 652654 www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of electricity they have scheduled with the grid operators at the agreedupon time. When load exceeds forecasted with load demands and diversity of electricity costs in different parts of the interconnection. Up to now constraints would occur, under the current assumption about the short term load forecast and the forecast

Shen, Haipeng

118

Forecasting in Meteorology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...

C. S. Ramage

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 - Introduction  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Introduction Introduction Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 [1] (AEO2010), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports [2]. The National Energy Modeling System The projections in the AEO2010 were produced with the NEMS, which is developed and maintained by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projections of domestic energy-economy markets in the long term and perform policy analyses requested by decisionmakers in the White House, U.S. Congress, offices within the Department of Energy, including DOE Program Offices, and other government agencies. The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projections are also used by analysts and planners in other government agencies and outside organizations.

120

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Introduction  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Introduction Introduction Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009),1 including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports.2 The National Energy Modeling System The projections in the AEO2009 were produced with the NEMS, which is developed and maintained by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projections of domestic energy-economy markets in the long term and perform policy analyses requested by decisionmakers in the White House, U.S. Congress, offices within the Department of Energy, including DOE Program Offices, and other government agencies. The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projections are also used by analysts and planners in other government agencies and outside organizations.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 - Introduction  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Introduction Introduction Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 20081 (AEO2008), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports.2 The National Energy Modeling System The projections in the AEO2008 were produced with the NEMS, which is developed and maintained by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projections of domestic energy-economy markets in the long term and perform policy analyses requested by decisionmakers in the White House, U.S. Congress, offices within the Department of Energy, including DOE Program Offices, and other government agencies. The AEO projections are also used by analysts and planners in other government agencies and outside organizations.

122

Oil price shocks: Testing a macroeconomic model  

SciTech Connect

The main research objective was to answer the following question: Will Consumer Price Index forecast models utilizing computer oil-consumption ratios have better predictive capability as indicated by lower numerical differences from actual results than a model utilizing oil prices as the energy-related variable Multiple linear regressions were run on the components of the United States CPI to reduce them to a kernel set with meaningful predictive capability. New linear regressions were run with this kernel set and crude oil prices during the 1973 to 1984 time period. Crude oil prices were rationalized with a 1972 = 100 based index of GNP base petroleum consumption, the index of net energy imports, and the index of petroleum imports to create new oil substitute constructs to be used in multiple regressions with the CPI. Predictions obtained from the model were compared with actual results in the 1985-1987 time period to determine which model version showed the greatest predictive power. Results of the model tests show that oil prices are strongly related to the CPI, but neither the use of oil prices or the index of GNP-based petroleum consumption produced results that closely predict future prices.

Williams, D.D.

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

124

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Assumptions to the...  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Nonfarm labor productivity is expected to diminish from its current high level to a more sustainable level between 1.8 and 2.6 percent for the remainder of the forecast period...

125

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

126

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2012  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2012 August 2012 www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585

127

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Report  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 1 (AEO2007), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant to formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports. 2 A synopsis of NEMS, the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented in The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 3 , which is updated once every few years. The National Energy Modeling System The projections in the AEO2007 were produced with the National Energy Modeling System. NEMS is developed and maintained by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projections of domestic energy-economy markets in the long term and

128

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Assumptions to the Annual Energy  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Commercial Demand Module Commercial Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module generates forecasts of commercial sector energy demand through 2030. The definition of the commercial sector is consistent with EIA’s State Energy Data System (SEDS). That is, the commercial sector includes business establishments that are not engaged in transportation or in manufacturing or other types of industrial activity (e.g., agriculture, mining or construction). The bulk of commercial sector energy is consumed within buildings; however, street lights, pumps, bridges, and public services are also included if the establishment operating them is considered commercial. Since most of commercial energy consumption occurs in buildings, the commercial module relies on the data from the EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) for characterizing the commercial sector activity mix as well as the equipment stock and fuels consumed to provide end use services.14

129

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Natural Gas Transmission and  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Figure 8. Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model Regions. Having problems, call our National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 for help. The NEMS Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module (NGTDM) derives domestic natural gas production, wellhead and border prices, end-use prices, and flows of natural gas through the regional interstate network, for both a peak (December through March) and off peak period during each forecast year. These are derived by solving for the market equilibrium across the three main components of the natural gas market: the supply component, the demand component, and the transmission and distribution

130

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Report  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7, DOE/EIA-M060(2007) (Washington, 7, DOE/EIA-M060(2007) (Washington, DC, 2007). Key Assumptions Coal Production The coal production submodule of the CMM generates a different set of supply curves for the CMM for each year of the forecast. Forty separate supply curves are developed for each of 14 supply regions, nine coal types (unique combinations of thermal grade and sulfur content), and two mine types (underground and surface). Supply curves are constructed using an econometric formulation that relates the minemouth prices of coal for the supply regions and coal types to a set of independent variables. The independent variables include: capacity utilization of mines, mining capacity, labor productivity, the user cost of capital of mining equipment, and the cost of factor inputs (labor and fuel).

131

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Assumptions to the Annual Energy  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Residential Demand Module Residential Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 Figure 5. United States Census Divisions. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. The NEMS Residential Demand Module forecasts future residential sector energy requirements based on projections of the number of households and the stock, efficiency, and intensity of use of energy-consuming equipment. The Residential Demand Module projections begin with a base year estimate of the housing stock, the types and numbers of energy-consuming appliances servicing the stock, and the “unit energy consumption” by appliance (or UEC—in million Btu per household per year). The projection process adds new housing units to the stock, determines the equipment

132

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 - Petroleum Market Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

petroleum.gif (4999 bytes) petroleum.gif (4999 bytes) The NEMS Petroleum Market Module (PMM) forecasts petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil (both domestic and imported), petroleum product imports, other refinery inputs including alcohol and ethers, natural gas plant liquids production, and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates capacity expansion and fuel consumption of domestic refineries. The PMM contains a linear programming representation of refining activities in three U.S. regions. This representation provides the marginal costs of production for a number of traditional and new petroleum products. The linear programming results are used to determine end-use product prices for each Census Division using the assumptions and methods described below. 75

133

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Petroleum Market Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Petroleum Market Module (PMM) forecasts petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil (both domestic and imported), petroleum product imports, other refinery inputs including alcohol and ethers, natural gas plant liquids production, and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates capacity expansion and fuel consumption of domestic refineries. Petroleum Market Module (PMM) forecasts petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil (both domestic and imported), petroleum product imports, other refinery inputs including alcohol and ethers, natural gas plant liquids production, and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates capacity expansion and fuel consumption of domestic refineries. The PMM contains a linear programming representation of refining activities in three U.S. regions. This representation provides the marginal costs of production for a number of traditional and new petroleum products. The linear programming results are used to determine end-use product prices for each Census Division using the assumptions and methods described below.100

134

Estimating macroeconomic effects of proposed safety and environmental regulations using the new DRI annual model of the US economy  

SciTech Connect

The long-run macroeconomic effects of proposed environmental and safety regulations are analyzed by use of DRI's (Data Resources, Inc.) new annual model of the US economy. This annual model has fewer variables than the DRI quarterly US economy model. Many short-run cyclical factors have been condensed while long-run supply factors have been enhanced. The model was used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of proposed simultaneous application of (1) new safety regulations regarding air bags or automatic seat belts on cars in 1984 and thereafter, and (2) tight acid-rain environmental regulations for coal-using electric utilities and industry. The effects of the regulations while favorable in the short run, were found to be quite adverse over the long run. Regulatory effects were further analyzed under the assumption that the initial application of regulations was accompanied by a shock in world oil prices (similar to situations in the 1970s when regulatory costs rose simultaneously with the two major energy price shocks). However, a synergistic effect between the shock and new regulation cost was not found.

Teotia, A.P.; Santini, D.J.; Caton, C.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

135

Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...

136

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

Macroeconomic determinants of the stock market movements: empirical evidence from the Saudi stock market.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This dissertation investigates the long run and short run relationships between Saudi stock market returns and eight macroeconomic variables. We investigate the ability of these… (more)

Alshogeathri, Mofleh Ali Mofleh

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Introduction  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Introduction Introduction This paper presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 20001 (AEO2000), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports.2 A synopsis of NEMS, the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented in The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview.3 The National Energy Modeling System The projections in the AEO2000 were produced with the National Energy Modeling System. NEMS is developed and maintained by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projections of domestic energy-economy markets in the midterm time period and perform policy analyses requested by decisionmakers and analysts in the U.S. Congress, the Department of Energy’s Office of Policy, other DOE offices, and other government agencies.

140

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Natural Gas Transmission  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module (NGTDM) derives domestic natural gas production, wellhead and border prices, end-use prices, and flows of natural gas through the regional interstate network, for both a peak (December through March) and off peak period during each forecast year. These are derived by solving for the market equilibrium across the three main components of the natural gas market: the supply component, the demand component, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. In addition, natural gas flow patterns are a function of the pattern in the previous year, coupled with the relative prices of gas supply options as translated to the represented market “hubs.” The major assumptions used within the NGTDM are grouped into five general categories. They relate to (1) the classification of demand into core and noncore transportation service classes, (2) the pricing of transmission and distribution services, (3) pipeline and storage capacity expansion and utilization, (4) the implementation of recent regulatory reform, and (5) the implementation of provisions of the Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP). A complete listing of NGTDM assumptions and in-depth methodology descriptions are presented in Model Documentation: Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System, Model Documentation 2000, DOE/EIA-M062(2000), January 2000.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 - Natural Gas Transmission  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

The NEMS Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module (NGTDM) derives domestic natural gas production, wellhead and border prices, end-use prices, and flows of natural gas through the regional interstate network, for both a peak (December through March) and off peak period during each forecast year. These are derived by obtaining market equilibrium across the three main components of the natural gas market: the supply component, the demand component, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. In addition, natural gas flow patterns are a function of the pattern in the previous year, coupled with the relative prices of gas supply options as translated to the represented market “hubs.” The major assumptions used within the NGTDM are grouped into five general categories. They relate to (1) the classification of demand into core and noncore transportation service classes, (2) the pricing of transmission and distribution services, (3) pipeline and storage capacity expansion and utilization, (4) the implementation of recent regulatory reform, and (5) the implementation of provisions of the Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP). A complete listing of NGTDM assumptions and in-depth methodology descriptions are presented in Model Documentation Report: Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-MO62/1, January 1999.

142

Climate Action Planning Tool Formulas and Assumptions  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

CLIMATE ACTION PLANNING TOOL FORMULAS AND ASSUMPTIONS Climate Action Planning Tool Formulas and Assumptions The Climate Action Planning Tool calculations use the following formulas and assumptions to generate the business-as-usual scenario and the greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals for the technology options. Business-as-Usual Scenario All Scope 1 (gas, oil, coal, fleet, and electricity) and Scope 2 calculations increase at a rate equal to the building growth rate. Scope 3 calculations (commuters and business travel) increase at a rate equal to the population growth rate. Assumptions New buildings will consume energy at the same rate (energy use intensity) as existing campus buildings. Fleet operations will be proportional to total building area.

143

Hierarchy of Mesoscale Flow Assumptions and Equations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The present research proposes a standard nomenclature for mesoscale meteorological concepts and integrates existing concepts of atmospheric space scales, flow assumptions, governing equations, and resulting motions into a hierarchy useful in ...

P. Thunis; R. Bornstein

1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

Verifying Forecasts Spatially  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...

Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...

André Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Time Series and Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...

147

Forecasting technology costs via the Learning Curve - Myth or Magic?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

is generally considered to be traditional fossil fuel power stations, hence making a further assumption that such a value for cost can be forecasted). In situations where niche markets exist (for example solar PV electricity for remote areas or hand held... Solar PV provides a good example of the use and dangers of using experience curves to forecast future costs of an energy technology. It is a good example since solar PV modules are generally accessed by an international market allowing for worldwide...

Alberth, Stephan

148

Optimal Deterministic and Stochastic Macroeconomic Policies for Slovenia: An Application of the OPTCON Algorithm  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper reports about applications of optimal control theory to the analysis of macroeconomic policies for Slovenia during its way into the Euro Area. For this purpose, the model SLOPOL4, a macroeconometric model for Slovenia, is used. Optimal policies ... Keywords: C5, E5, E6, Econometric model, Macroeconomic policy, O5, Optimal control, Sensitivity analysis, Slovenia, Stochastic control

Reinhard Neck; Gottfried Haber; Klaus Weyerstrass

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

150

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Introduction  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) represents the interaction between the U.S. economy as a whole and energy markets. The rate of growth of the economy, measured by the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is a key determinant of the growth in demand for energy. Associated economic factors, such as interest rates and disposable income, strongly influence various elements of the supply and demand for energy. At the same time, reactions to energy markets by the aggregate economy, such as a slowdown in economic growth resulting from increasing energy prices, are also reflected in this module. A detailed description of the MAM is provided in the EIA publication, Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M065, (Washington, DC, February 1994), plus Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM): Kernel Regression Documentation of the National Energy Modeling System 1999, DOE/EIA-M065(99), Washington, DC, 1999).

151

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Introduction Introduction This page inTenTionally lefT blank 3 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [1] (AEO2013), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports [2]. The National Energy Modeling System Projections in the AEO2013 are generated using the NEMS, developed and maintained by the Office of Energy Analysis of the U.S.

152

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Residential Demand Module Residential Demand Module The NEMS Residential Demand Module forecasts future residential sector energy requirements based on projections of the number of households and the stock, efficiency, and intensity of use of energy-consuming equipment. The Residential Demand Module projections begin with a base year estimates of the housing stock, the types and numbers of energy-consuming appliances servicing the stock, and the “unit energy consumption” by appliance (or UEC—in million Btu per household per year). The projection process adds new housing units to the stock, determines the equipment installed in new units, retires existing housing units, and retires and replaces appliances. The primary exogenous drivers for the module are housing starts by type (single-family, multifamily and mobile homes) and Census Division and prices for each energy source for each of the nine Census Divisions. The Residential Demand Module also requires projections of available equipment over the forecast horizon. Over time, equipment efficiency tends to increase because of general technological advances and also because of Federal and/or state efficiency standards. As energy prices and available equipment changes over the forecast horizon, the module includes projected changes to the type and efficiency of equipment purchased as well as projected changes in the usage intensity of the equipment stock.

153

A Nonparametric Postprocessor for Bias Correction of Hydrometeorological and Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes a technique for quantifying and removing biases from ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables. The technique makes no a priori assumptions about the distributional form of the variables, which is ...

James D. Brown; Dong-Jun Seo

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.

Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sűrensen

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Business forecasting methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

156

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

157

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Renewable Fuels Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Renewable Fuels Module Renewable Fuels Module Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Renewable Fuels Module The NEMS Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) provides natural resources supply and technology input information for forecasts of new central-station U.S. electricity generating capacity using renewable energy resources. The RFM has five submodules representing various renewable energy sources, biomass, geothermal, landfill gas, solar, and wind; a sixth renewable, conventional hydroelectric power, is represented in the Electricity Market Module (EMM).109 Some renewables, such as landfill gas (LFG) from municipal solid waste (MSW) and other biomass materials, are fuels in the conventional sense of the word, while others, such as wind and solar radiation, are energy sources that do not involve the production or consumption of a fuel. Renewable technologies cover the gamut of commercial market penetration, from hydroelectric power, which was an original source of electricity generation, to newer power systems using biomass, geothermal, LFG, solar, and wind energy. In some cases, they require technological innovation to become cost effective or have inherent characteristics, such as intermittency, which make their penetration into the electricity grid dependent upon new methods for integration within utility system plans or upon low-cost energy storage.

158

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 143 Appendix A: Handling of Federal and Selected State Legislation and Regulation in the Annual Energy Outlook Legislation Brief Description AEO Handling Basis Residential Sector A. National Appliance Energy Conservation Act of 1987 Requires Secretary of Energy to set minimum efficiency standards for 10 appliance categories a. Room Air Conditioners Current standard of 8.82 EER Federal Register Notice of Final Rulemaking, b. Other Air Conditioners (<5.4 tons) Current standard 10 SEER for central air conditioner and heat pumps, increasing to 12 SEER in 2006. Federal Register Notice of Final Rulemaking, c. Water Heaters Electric: Current standard .86 EF, incr easing to .90 EF in 2004. Gas: Curren

159

Heterogeneous Enterprises in a Macroeconomic Agent-Based Model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We present a macroeconomic agent-based model that combines several mechanisms operating at the same timescale, while remaining mathematically tractable. It comprises enterprises and workers who compete in a job market and a commodity goods market. The model is stock-flow consistent; a bank lends money charging interest rates, and keeps track of equities. Important features of the model are heterogeneity of enterprises, existence of bankruptcies and creation of new enterprises, as well as productivity increase. The model's evolution reproduces empirically found regularities for firm size and growth rate distributions. It combines probabilistic elements and deterministic dynamics, with relative weights that may be modified according to the considered problem or the belief of the modeler. We discuss statistical regularities on enterprises, the origin and the amplitude of endogeneous fluctuations of the system's steady state, as well as the role of the interest rate and the credit volume. We also summarize obtain...

Metzig, Cornelia

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

ORNL integrated forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.

Rizy, C.G.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Transportation technology transitions and macroeconomic growth -- Contemporary evidence  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents international and temporal extensions of evidence for a theory developed by the author concerning the interaction of transportation technology transitions and macroeconomic growth. The period 1970 to the present is examined for the nations of Japan, the US, and Europe (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom collectively). An addition to the abstract logic supporting the general arguments of the theory is also presented. The theory has been developed concerning the role of significant transportation technology transitions as a cause of significant macroeconomic declines in nations for which the manufacture of transportation vehicles (ships, locomotives, and automobiles) is a dominant economic activity. The theory offers an explanation for periods of pronounced multiyear decline in economic growth rate--sometimes called depressions and sometimes called stagnations. One purpose of this paper is to explore whether or not Japan and Europe have each recently experienced a multiyear event of this type. In the theory and the evidence presented for it, environmental regulation of transportation vehicles has been shown to be an initiating cause of significant technical change, with sharp, sustained fuel price increases being a second frequent initiating cause. These causes of significant technical change, and their possible consequences, are potentially important considerations for those proposing policies to deal with global warming, since both fuel economy regulation and fuel price increases have been recommended by policy analysts as means to reduce transportation`s contribution to global warming. The theory has been offered and supported by publications developing mathematical models and examining US historical evidence consistent with the theory.

Santini, D.J.

1994-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

162

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts,” Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

forecast | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...

165

Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville

Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Global and Local Skill Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...

P. L. Houtekamer

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...

Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

Composite forecasting in commodity systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The

Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water

171

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

172

Does the term structure forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-

Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

Senior Vice President Enclosure document8 This page intentionally left blankMacroeconomic Impacts of LNG  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

I am transmitting with this letter a clean copy of NERA’s report on the macroeconomic impacts of LNG exports from the United States that was contracted for by the Department of Energy. Sincerely, W. David Montgomery

Www. Nera. Com; Dear Mr. Smith; Robert Baron; Nera Economic Consulting; Ha D. Tuladhar; Nera Economic Consulting

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

Assumptions to Annual Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administrati...  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Assumptions to AEO2013 Release Date: May 14, 2013 | Next Release Date: May 2014 | full report Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy...

175

Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...

Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

Evaluating Point Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...

Gneiting, Tilmann

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

Forecasters ’ Objectives and Strategies ?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.

Iván Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sűrensen

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

EIA-Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Industrial Demand Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Industrial Demand Module Industrial Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Industrial Demand Module The NEMS Industrial Demand Module estimates energy consumption by energy source (fuels and feedstocks) for 21 manufacturing and 6 nonmanufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are further subdivided into the energy-intensive manufacturing industries and nonenergy-intensive manufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are modeled through the use of a detailed process flow or end use accounting procedure, whereas the nonmanufacturing industries are modeled with substantially less detail (Table 17). The Industrial Demand Module forecasts energy consumption at the four Census region level (see Figure 5); energy consumption at the Census Division level is estimated by allocating the Census region forecast using the SEDS25 data.

179

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Market Module Electricity Market Module The NEMS Electricity Market Module (EMM) represents the capacity planning, dispatching, and pricing of electricity. It is composed of four submodules—electricity capacity planning, electricity fuel dispatching, load and demand-side management, and electricity finance and pricing. It includes nonutility capacity and generation, and electricity transmission and trade. A detailed description of the EMM is provided in the EIA publication, Electricity Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2003, DOE/EIA-M068(2003) April 2003. Based on fuel prices and electricity demands provided by the other modules of the NEMS, the EMM determines the most economical way to supply electricity, within environmental and operational constraints. There are assumptions about the operations of the electricity sector and the costs of various options in each of the EMM submodules. This section describes the model parameters and assumptions used in EMM. It includes a discussion of legislation and regulations that are incorporated in EMM as well as information about the climate change action plan. The various electricity and technology cases are also described.

180

A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...

Dean P. Gulezian

1981-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

Mohaghegh, Shahab

182

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

183

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Vehicle Cost Calculator Assumptions and  

Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Data Center (EERE)

Tools Tools Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to Alternative Fuels Data Center: Vehicle Cost Calculator Assumptions and Methodology to someone by E-mail Share Alternative Fuels Data Center: Vehicle Cost Calculator Assumptions and Methodology on Facebook Tweet about Alternative Fuels Data Center: Vehicle Cost Calculator Assumptions and Methodology on Twitter Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: Vehicle Cost Calculator Assumptions and Methodology on Google Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: Vehicle Cost Calculator Assumptions and Methodology on Delicious Rank Alternative Fuels Data Center: Vehicle Cost Calculator Assumptions and Methodology on Digg Find More places to share Alternative Fuels Data Center: Vehicle Cost Calculator Assumptions and Methodology on AddThis.com...

184

Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.

Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Industrial Demand Module Industrial Demand Module This page inTenTionally lefT blank 53 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Industrial Demand Module The NEMS Industrial Demand Module (IDM) estimates energy consumption by energy source (fuels and feedstocks) for 15 manufacturing and 6 non-manufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are subdivided further into the energy- intensive manufacturing industries and non-energy-intensive manufacturing industries (Table 6.1). The manufacturing industries are modeled through the use of a detailed process-flow or end-use accounting procedure. The non-manufacturing industries are modeled with less detail because processes are simpler and there is less available data. The petroleum refining

186

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Demand Module Demand Module This page inTenTionally lefT blank 39 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Commercial Demand Module The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module generates projections of commercial sector energy demand through 2040. The definition of the commercial sector is consistent with EIA's State Energy Data System (SEDS). That is, the commercial sector includes business establishments that are not engaged in transportation or in manufacturing or other types of industrial activity (e.g., agriculture, mining or construction). The bulk of commercial sector energy is consumed within buildings; however, street lights, pumps, bridges, and public services are also included if the establishment operating them is considered commercial.

187

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Demand Module Demand Module This page inTenTionally lefT blank 27 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Residential Demand Module The NEMS Residential Demand Module projects future residential sector energy requirements based on projections of the number of households and the stock, efficiency, and intensity of energy-consuming equipment. The Residential Demand Module projections begin with a base year estimate of the housing stock, the types and numbers of energy-consuming appliances servicing the stock, and the "unit energy consumption" (UEC) by appliance (in million Btu per household per year). The projection process adds new housing units to the stock, determines the equipment installed in new units, retires existing

188

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Industrial Demand Module Industrial Demand Module The NEMS Industrial Demand Module estimates energy consumption by energy source (fuels and feedstocks) for 9 manufacturing and 6 nonmanufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are further subdivided into the energy-intensive manufacturing industries and nonenergy-intensive manufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are modeled through the use of a detailed process flow or end use accounting procedure, whereas the nonmanufacturing industries are modeled with substantially less detail (Table 20). The Industrial Demand Module forecasts energy consumption at the four Census region levels; energy consumption at the Census Division level is allocated by using the SEDS24 data. The energy-intensive industries (food and kindred products, paper and allied products, bulk chemicals, glass and glass products, hydraulic cement, blast furnace and basic steel products, and aluminum) are modeled in considerable detail. Each industry is modeled as three separate but interrelated components consisting of the Process Assembly (PA) Component, the Buildings Component (BLD), and the Boiler/Steam/Cogenera- tion (BSC) Component. The BSC Component satisfies the steam demand from the PA and BLD Components. In some industries, the PA Component produces byproducts that are consumed in the BSC Component. For the manufacturing industries, the PA Component is separated into the major production processes or end uses.

189

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Renewable Fuels Module Renewable Fuels Module The NEMS Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) provides natural resources supply and technology input information for forecasts of new central-station U.S. electricity generating capacity using renewable energy resources. The RFM has five submodules representing various renewable energy sources, biomass, geothermal, landfill gas, solar, and wind; a sixth renewable, conventional hydroelectric power, is represented in the Electricity Market Module (EMM).119 Some renewables, such as landfill gas (LFG) from municipal solid waste (MSW) and other biomass materials, are fuels in the conventional sense of the word, while others, such as wind and solar radiation, are energy sources that do not involve the production or consumption of a fuel. Renewable technologies cover the gamut of commercial market penetration, from hydroelectric power, which was an original source of electricity generation, to newer power systems using biomass, geothermal, LFG, solar, and wind energy. In some cases, they require technological innovation to become cost effective or have inherent characteristics, such as intermittency, which make their penetration into the electricity grid dependent upon new methods for integration within utility system plans or upon low-cost energy storage.

190

LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts

Feinberg, Eugene A.

191

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

192

Factors Driving Prices & Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...

193

Modeling and Forecasting Aurora  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.

Dirk Lummerzheim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

195

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Commercial Demand...  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

categories16 in each of the nine Census divisions (see Figure 5). The model begins by developing forecasts of floorspace for the 99 building category and Census division...

196

Evaluating Covariance Matrix Forecasts in a Value-at-Risk Framework  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

: Covariance matrix forecasts of financial asset returns are an important component of current practice in financial risk management. A wide variety of models are available for generating such forecasts. In this paper, we evaluate the relative performance of different covariance matrix forecasts using standard statistical loss functions and a value-at-risk (VaR) framework. Using a foreign exchange portfolio, we find covariance matrix forecasts generated from option prices perform best under statistical loss functions, such as mean-squared error. Within a VaR framework, the relative performance of covariance matrix forecasts depends greatly on the VaR models' distributional assumptions. Of the forecasts examined, simple specifications, such as exponentially-weighted moving averages of past observations, perform best with regard to the magnitude of VaR exceptions and regulatory capital requirements. Our results provide empirical support for the commonly-used VaR models based on simple c...

Jose A. Lopez; Christian A. Walter

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Stock returns and the dispersion in earnings forecasts,” Working Paper No  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: The efficient market hypothesis based on homogeneous expectations implies that future stock returns are unpredictable. However, the forecastability of stock returns has been well documented in a substantial literature. This paper introduces a new forecasting variable, dispersion in analysts ’ earnings forecasts. The implication from this finding is not only that we have another piece of evidence that stock returns are predictable, but also that alternative models should be used to explain movements of stock prices. Hence, this paper derives a relation between the dispersion in forecasts and future stock returns based on Harrison and Kreps (1978) and shows that the dispersion in forecasts exerts its own positive effect on demand in the market. Furthermore, this paper shows empirically that the dispersion in expectations has particularly strong predictive power for future stock returns at intermediate horizons (between 24 months and 43 months) and that it contains information about future stock returns aside from the information contained in other variables. In addition, the direction of predictive power from the dispersion for future stock returns is consistent with the derived relation from Harrison and Kreps (1978). This paper also shows that most of the movements in dispersion cannot be explained by other variables, such as common financial indicators, macroeconomic variables, market volatility, or non-economic events. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation shows that finite sample biases in long-horizon regressions using the dispersion do not seem so serious.

Cheolbeom Park

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

EIA-Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Coal Market Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Coal Market Module Coal Market Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Coal Market Module The NEMS Coal Market Module (CMM) provides forecasts of U.S. coal production, consumption, exports, imports, distribution, and prices. The CMM comprises three functional areas: coal production, coal distribution, and coal exports. A detailed description of the CMM is provided in the EIA publication, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2007, DOE/EIA-M060(2007) (Washington, DC, 2007). Key Assumptions Coal Production The coal production submodule of the CMM generates a different set of supply curves for the CMM for each year of the forecast. Forty separate supply curves are developed for each of 14 supply regions, nine coal types (unique combinations of thermal grade and sulfur content), and two mine types (underground and surface). Supply curves are constructed using an econometric formulation that relates the minemouth prices of coal for the supply regions and coal types to a set of independent variables. The independent variables include: capacity utilization of mines, mining capacity, labor productivity, the user cost of capital of mining equipment, and the cost of factor inputs (labor and fuel).

199

Forecasting in the Presence of Level Shifts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 : 537-560. Hamilton JD.430. Harvey AC. 1989. Forecasting, structural time seriesMH, Timmermann A. 1994. Forecasting stock returns: An

Smith, Aaron

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): “OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner, G. , and U. K.2005): “Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

European Macro-economic Policy and Technological Development: the case of Greece  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Recent studies on economic and technological transformation in less developed countries emphasise that improvement of their performance in terms of competitiveness and successful integration into the world economy requires both economic stabilisation at the macroeconomic level and technological development. Greece is a typical case, which during the last twenty years has had to deal with specific imperatives: European integration, technological catch-up and macro-economic stability. These processes are envisaged under the pressure of the opening of the economy, which in principle could facilitate dissemination of new technologies on the one hand but constrain the development of national capabilities on the other. In this paper we present the specificities of the Greek productive system that have shaped its integration into the EC and attempt to link the process of European integration with its technological development. Special reference is made to the macroeconomic policy of the EU and its impact on technological transformation. 2

Ioanna Kastelli

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

FROM ANALYSTS ' EARNINGS FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We examine the accuracy and bias of intrinsic equity prices estimated from three accounting-based valuation models using analyst’s earnings forecasts over a four-year horizon. The models are: (a) the earnings capitalization model, (b) the residual income model without a terminal value, and (c) the residual income model with a terminal value that assumes residual income will grow beyond the horizon at a constant rate determined from the expected residual income growth rate over the forecast horizon. Our analysis is based on valuation errors that are calculated by comparing estimated prices to actual prices. We contribute to the literature by examining whether: (i) the analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book value and dividends, (ii) the use of firm specific growth rates in terminal value calculations results in more unbiased and accurate valuations than the use of constant growth rates, and (iii) different models perform better under different ex-ante conditions. We find that analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book values and dividends. Each of the models that we used has valuation errors that decline monotonically as the horizon increases implying that earnings forecasts at each horizon convey new value relevant information. We cannot find a clear advantage to using firm specific growth rates instead of a constant rate of 4 % across all sample

Theodore Sougiannis; Takashi Yaekura

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast

204

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

Mohaghegh, Shahab

205

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW

206

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others

207

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

208

3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 3, 2145­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC ­ Department­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

209

4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OSD 4, 189­212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

210

FINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

predecessors to forecast stock prices and manage portfolios for approximately 3 years.) We examineFINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS SAM MAHFOUD and GANESH MANI LBS Capital Management entitled Genetic Algorithms for Inductive Learning). Time-series forecasting is a special type

Boetticher, Gary D.

211

Forecast of auroral activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting

A. T. Y. Lui

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

213

Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions U.S ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2012 2013 2014 Macroeconomic Real Gross Domestic Product (billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) ..... 13,506 13,549 ...

214

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 - International...  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

percent per year over the forecast periodas advances in both exploration and extraction technologies result in this upward trend (Figure 3). One fixed path for non-OPEC oil...

215

Macroeconomic impacts of clean coal technologies and acid rain legislation: A comparative analysis  

SciTech Connect

In 1987, the National Association of Manufacturers published a study documenting the negative macroeconomic impacts that could occur if proposed acid rain legislation were passed (NAM 1987). These negative impacts would result from the substantially higher electricity rates that would be needed to finance conventional pollution-control retrofits. The US Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy (DOE/FE) wanted to evaluate the macroeconomic impacts of nonregulatory approaches to reduce the emissions of acid rain precursors. DOE/FE therefore directed Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to determine the potential for clean coal technologies (CCTs) to satisfy future electric load growth and achieve greater long-term reductions in emissions at a lower cost than could be achieved through a legislative mandate. This study documents the macroeconomic impacts of CCT deployment without acid rain legislation and compares these results with the corresponding impacts of using conventional technologies and meeting mandatory emission reductions. The Argonne Utility Simulation (ARGUS) model was used to determine the least-cost solution and incremental levelized system costs* over the period 1995-2030 for three scenarios: (1) a baseline scenario, in which no acid rain controls are mandated and no CCTs are deployed; (2) an acid rain (AR) scenario, in which legislation (S. 1894, 100th Congress) is mandated but no CCTs are deployed; and (3) a CCT scenario, in which maximum CCT deployment (specifically, integrated gasification combined-cycle or IGCC technology in repowering and new or greenfield'' applications) occurs but no acid rain legislation is mandated. The Data Resources Inc. (DRI) annual macroeconomic model (which was extended from 2010 to 2030) was used to compute the macroeconomic impacts of the AR and CCT scenarios. 2 refs., 28 figs.

Edwards, B.K.; South, D.W.; Veselka, T.D. (Argonne National Lab., IL (USA). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Gault, N.J. (DRI/McGraw-Hill Energy Service, Lexington, MA (USA))

1989-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

Comparison of Energy Information Administration and Bonneville Power Administration load forecasts  

SciTech Connect

Comparisons of the modeling methodologies underlying the project Independence Evaluation System (PIES) and the Bonneville Power Administration forecasts are discussed in this paper. This Technical Memorandum is presented in order to reconcile apparent inconsistencies between the forecasts. These represent different purposes for the modeling effort as well as different forecasts. Nonetheless, both are appropriate within the context that they are intended. The BPA forecasts are site-specific, detailed, micro-level, yearly forecasts of the demand for electricity. PIES develops regional, macro forecasts and does not contain estimates of the timing of the completion of plants within the period of the forecast. The BPA forecast is intended to be utilized in analyzing a sub-regional capacity expansion program. PIES is a regional energy market-clearing, non-normative model which allows different scenarios to be compared by changing input variables. Clearly, both forecasts are dependent upon the accuracy of the assumptions and input variables included. However, the differing levels of aggregation and objectives require different types of input variables.

Reed, H.J.

1978-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda SĂĄnchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

218

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Coal Market...  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

of mining equipment, the cost of factor inputs (labor and fuel), and other mine supply costs. The key assumptions underlying the coal production modeling are: As capacity...

219

EIA-Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Petroleum Market Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Petroleum Market Module Petroleum Market Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Petroleum Market Module Figure 9. Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. The NEMS Petroleum Market Module (PMM) forecasts petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil (both domestic and imported), petroleum product imports, unfinished oil imports, other refinery inputs (including alcohols, ethers, and bioesters), natural gas plant liquids production, and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM projects capacity expansion and fuel consumption at domestic refineries. The PMM contains a linear programming (LP) representation of U.S. refining

220

EIA-Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Residential Demand Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Residential Demand Module Residential Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Residential Demand Module Figure 5. United States Census Divisions. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. The NEMS Residential Demand Module forecasts future residential sector energy requirements based on projections of the number of households and the stock, efficiency, and intensity of use of energy-consuming equipment. The Residential Demand Module projections begin with a base year estimate of the housing stock, the types and numbers of energy-consuming appliances servicing the stock, and the "unit energy consumption" by appliance (or UEC-in million Btu per household per year). The projection process adds new housing units to the stock, determines the equipment installed in new

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

EIA-Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - National Gas Transmission  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 National Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Figure 8. Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model Regions. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. The NEMS Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module (NGTDM) derives domestic natural gas production, wellhead and border prices, end-use prices, and flows of natural gas through the regional interstate network, for both a peak (December through March) and off peak period during each forecast year. These are derived by solving for the market equilibrium across the three main components of the natural gas market: the supply component, the demand component, and the transmission and distribution

222

EIA-Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Commercial Demand Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Commercial Demand Module Commercial Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Commercial Demand Module The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module generates forecasts of commercial sector energy demand through 2030. The definition of the commercial sector is consistent with EIA's State Energy Data System (SEDS). That is, the commercial sector includes business establishments that are not engaged in transportation or in manufacturing or other types of industrial activity (e.g., agriculture, mining or construction). The bulk of commercial sector energy is consumed within buildings; however, street lights, pumps, bridges, and public services are also included if the establishment operating them is considered commercial. Since most of commercial energy consumption occurs in buildings, the commercial module relies on the data from the EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) for characterizing the commercial sector activity mix as well as the equipment stock and fuels consumed to provide end use services.12

223

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

Information and Inference in Econometrics: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Application: Forecasting Equity Premium . . . . . . . . . .2.6.1 Forecasting4 Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models 4.1

Tu, Yundong

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

225

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

Assumption-Commitment Support for CSP Model Checking  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AVoCS 2006 Assumption-Commitment Support for CSP Model Checking Nick Moffat1 Systems Assurance using CSP. In our formulation, an assumption-commitment style property of a process SYS takes the form-Guarantee, CSP, Model Checking, Compositional Reasoning 1 Introduction The principle of compositional program

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

227

Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies ’ finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.

Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

229

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 - Footnotes  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

footnote.gif (3505 bytes) footnote.gif (3505 bytes) [1] Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1999 (AEO99), DOE/EIA-0383(99), (Washington, DC, December 1998). [2] NEMS documentation reports are available on the EIA CD-ROM and the EIA Homepage (http://www.eia.gov/bookshelf.html). For ordering information on the CD-ROM, contact STAT-USA's toll free order number: 1-800-STAT-USA or by calling (202) 482-1986. [3] Energy Information Administration, The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 1998, DOE/EIA-0581(98), (Washington, DC, February 1998). [4] The underlying macroeconomic growth cases use DRI/McGraw-Hill’s August 1998 T250898 and February TO250298 and TP250298. [5] EIA, International Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0484(98) (Washington DC, April 1998).

230

Chapter 11 Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish between the information set for ‘normal forces ’ and the one for ‘break drivers’, then outline sources of potential information. Relevant non-linear, dynamic models facing multiple breaks can have more candidate variables than observations, so we discuss automatic model selection. As a failure to accurately forecast breaks remains likely, we augment our strategy by modelling breaks during their progress, and consider robust forecasting devices.

Jennifer L. Castle; Nicholas W. P. Fawcett; David F. Hendry

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses three current energy issues—electricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis

232

The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks : why are the 2000s so different from the 1920s?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We characterize the macroeconomic performance of a set of industrialized economies in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the 1970s and of the last decade, focusing on the differences across episodes. We examine four ...

Blanchard, Olivier

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...

Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or

235

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

Aviation forecasting and systems analyses  

SciTech Connect

The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.

Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

Studies of inflation and forecasting.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This dissertation contains five research papers in the area of applied econometrics. The two broad themes of the research are inflation and forecasting. The first… (more)

Bermingham, Colin

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

239

UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

Lew, D.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Report  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

T T he NEMS Industrial Demand Module estimates energy consumption by energy source (fuels and feedstocks) for 21 manufacturing and 6 nonmanufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are further subdivided into the energy-intensive manufacturing industries and nonenergy-intensive manufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are modeled through the use of a detailed process flow or end use accounting procedure, whereas the nonmanufacturing industries are modeled with substantially less detail (Table 17). The Industrial Demand Module forecasts energy consumption at the four Census region level (see Figure 5); energy consumption at the Census Division level is estimated by allocating the Census region forecast using the SEDS 25 data.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

“The Long-run Macroeconomic Impacts of Fuel Subsidies in an Oil-importing Developing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Many developing and emerging market countries have subsidies on fuel products. Using a small open economy model with a non-traded sector I show how these subsidies impact the steady state levels of macroeconomic aggregates such as consumption, labor supply, and aggregate welfare. These subsidies can lead to crowding out of non-oil consumption, inefficient inter-sectoral allocations of labor, and other distortions in macroeconomic variables. Across steady states aggregate welfare is reduced by these subsidies. This result holds for a country with no oil production and for a net exporter of oil. The distortions in relative prices introduced by the subsidy create most of the welfare losses. How the subsidy is financed is of secondary importance. Aggregate welfare is significantly higher if the subsidies are replaced by lump-sum transfers of equal value.

Michael Plante; Michael Plante A

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Assumptions to Annual Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Assumptions to AEO2013 Assumptions to AEO2013 Release Date: May 14, 2013 | Next Release Date: May 2014 | full report Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [1] (AEO2013), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports [2]. The National Energy Modeling System Projections in the AEO2013 are generated using the NEMS, developed and maintained by the Office of Energy Analysis of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In addition to its use in developing the Annual

243

Assumptions to Annual Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administration  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Assumptions to AEO2012 Assumptions to AEO2012 Release Date: August 2, 2012 | Next Release Date: August 2013 | Full report Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2012 [1] (AEO2012), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports [2]. The National Energy Modeling System The projections in AEO2012 are generated using the NEMS, developed and maintained by the Office of Energy Analysis (OEA) of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In addition to its use in developing the

244

Notes 01. The fundamental assumptions and equations of lubrication theory  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The fundamental assumption in Lubrication Theory. Derivation of thin film flow equations from Navier-Stokes equations. Importance of fluid inertia effects in thin film flows. Some fluid physical properties

San Andres, Luis

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

245

Prognostic Evaluation of Assumptions Used by Cumulus Parameterizations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using a spectral-type cumulus parameterization that includes moist downdrafts within a three-dimensional mesoscale model, various disparate closure assumptions are systematically tested within the generalized framework of dynamic control, static ...

Georg A. Grell

1993-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

Computational soundness for standard assumptions of formal cryptography  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This implementation is conceptually simple, and relies only on general assumptions. Specifically, it can be thought of as a 'self-referential' variation on a well-known encryption scheme. 4. Lastly, we show how the ...

Herzog, Jonathan, 1975-

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

247

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 - Introduction  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Feedback link.gif (1946 bytes) bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Assumptions to the AEO99 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Interactive Data Queries to the AEO99 bullet1.gif...

248

Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.

James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

249

On the Prediction of Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, ...

T. N. Palmer; S. Tibaldi

1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...

Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The ...

Lance F. Bosart

2003-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

252

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

253

Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One goal of weather and climate forecasting is to inform decision making. Effective communication of forecasts to various sectors of the public is essential for meeting that goal, yet studies repeatedly show that forecasts are not well understood ...

Karen Pennesi

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

254

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts… (more)

Sakva, Denys

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

What Is the True Value of Forecasts?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to ...

Antony Millner

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Forecasting Electric Vehicle Costs with Experience Curves  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

April, 5. R 2~1. Dino. "Forecasting the Price Evolution of 1ElectromcProducts," Ioumal of Forecasting, „oL4, No I, 1985.costs and a set of forecasting tools that can be refined as

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 1–4 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, ...

Andreas P. Weigel; Daniel Baggenstos; Mark A. Liniger; Frédéric Vitart; Christof Appenzeller

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

262

A Forecast for the California Labor Market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

issue for the state. A Forecast for the California Laborto Go? ” The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation andAngeles: UCLA Anderson Forecast: Nation 1.1 – 1.9. Dhawan,

Mitchell, Daniel J. B.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK STAFFREPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400.................................................................................. 9 Sources of Forecast Error....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2

264

Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...

David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality of such forecasts can ...

Cristina Primo; Christopher A. T. Ferro; Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

267

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical modeling Celia Frank and Ashish Garg, USA Les Sztandera Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, PA, USA Keywords Apparel, Forecasting average (MA), auto- regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since

Raheja, Amar

268

Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...

Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both sea ice forecast models and methods to measure their skill are needed for operational sea ice forecasting. Two simple sea ice models are described and tested here. Four different measures of skill are also tested. The forecasts from the ...

Robert W. Grumbine

1998-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A cloud model ensemble forecasting approach is developed to create forecasts that describe the range and distribution of thunderstorm lifetimes that may be expected to occur on a particular day. Such forecasts are crucial for anticipating severe ...

Kimberly L. Elmore; David J. Stensrud; Kenneth C. Crawford

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

Idaho National Engineering Laboratory installation roadmap assumptions document. Revision 1  

SciTech Connect

This document is a composite of roadmap assumptions developed for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) by the US Department of Energy Idaho Field Office and subcontractor personnel as a key element in the implementation of the Roadmap Methodology for the INEL Site. The development and identification of these assumptions in an important factor in planning basis development and establishes the planning baseline for all subsequent roadmap analysis at the INEL.

Not Available

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

Background pollution forecast over bulgaria  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...

D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

Frequency Dependence in Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method is proposed to calculate measures of forecast skill for high, medium and low temporal frequency variations in the atmosphere. This method is applied to a series of 128 consecutive 1 to 10-day forecasts produced at NMC with their ...

H. M. van Den Dool; Suranjana Saha

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate… (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Title Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication...

277

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

278

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

279

DND: a model for forecasting electrical energy usage by water-resource subregion  

SciTech Connect

A forecast methodology was derived from principles of econometrics using exogenous variables, i.e., cost of electricity, consumer income, and price elasticity as indicators of growth for each consuming sector: residential, commercial, and industrial. The model was calibrated using forecast data submitted to the Department of Energy (DOE) by the nine Regional Electric Reliability Councils. Estimates on electrical energy usage by specific water-resource subregion were obtained by normalizing forecasted total electrical energy usage by state into per capita usage. The usage factor and data on forecasted population were applied for each water resource subregion. The results derived using the model are self-consistent and in good agreement with DOE Energy Information Administration projections. The differences that exist are largely the result of assumptions regarding specific aggregations and assignment of regional-system reliability and load factors. 8 references, 2 figures, 13 tables.

Sonnichsen, J.C. Jr.

1980-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Footnote  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

[1] Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000), DOE/EIA-0383(2000), (Washington, DC, December 1999). [1] Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000), DOE/EIA-0383(2000), (Washington, DC, December 1999). [2] NEMS documentation reports are available on the EIA CD-ROM and the EIA Homepage (http://www.eia.gov/bookshelf.html). For ordering information on the CD-ROM, contact STAT-USA's toll free order number: 1-800-STAT-USA or by calling (202) 482-1986. [3] Energy Information Administration, The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 1998, DOE/EIA-0581(98), (Washington, DC, February 1998). [4] The underlying macroeconomic growth cases use Standard and Poor’s DRI August 1999 T250899 and February TO250299 and TP250299. [5] PennWell Publishing Co., International Petroleum Encyclopedia, (Tulsa, OK, 1999). [6] EIA, EIA Model Documentation: World Oil Refining Logistics Demand Model, “WORLD” Reference Manual, DOE/EIA-M058, (Washington, DC, March 1994).

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Assumptions to the Annual Energy  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Introduction Introduction Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 20061 (AEO2006), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports.2 A synopsis of NEMS, the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented in The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview3, which is updated once every few years. The National Energy Modeling System

282

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast

283

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

LPG Furnace Oil Furnace Electric Heat Pump Gas BoilerOil Boiler Electric Room Heater Gas Room Heater Wood Stove (Electric Heat Pump Gas Boiler Oil Boiler Electric Room Gas

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Homes End-Use Equipment Type Equipment Market Shares Index Heating ElecFurnace Gas Furnace LPG Furnace OilHomes (millions) End-Use Equipment Type Appliance stock in millions of units Index Heating FJec Furnace Gas Furnace L P G Furnace OilHomes End-Use Equipment Type Units Efficiency for Stock Equipment Index Heating Elec Furnace Btu.out/Wh.in Gas Furnace AFUE LPG Furnace AFUE Oil

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

=1 Index 1990=1 Lighting 0-1 hrs 1-2 hrs Usage level 2-3 hrsMiscellaneous Lighting 0-1 hrs 1-2 hrs Usage level 2-3 hrsMiscellaneous Lighting 0-1 hrs 1-2 hrs Usage level 2-3 hrs

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

H $2,000 hl S z % Reduction in Total Space Conditioning LoadAppliances and Space Conditioning Equipment. Arthur D.3.1 and 3.4. The space conditioning loads are based on the

Johnson, F.X.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Central Air, Fuels = Oil and Gas, Other = LPG and Misc. (3)Central Air, Fuels = Oil and Gas, LPG and Misc. (3) Sources:Central Air, Fuels = Oil and Gas, Other = LPG and Misc. (3)

Johnson, F.X.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Description Prices for oil, gas, electricity, liquidElectric Electric Electric Gas Oil Electric ElectricElectric Gas Electric Gas Oil Electric Electric Gas Oil

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

natural gas consumption and 90% of oil consumption in the U.S.natural gas consumption and 90% of oil consumption in the U.S.

Johnson, F.X.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

oil hydronic, electric room, and electric (air source) heatFuels = Oil and Gas, LPG and Misc. (3) Sources: 1990 RECS (Fuels = Oil and Gas, Other = LPG and Misc. (3) Sources: 1990

Johnson, F.X.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

apply: the thermal shell, heating and cooling equipment, orestimated the thermal shell heating and cooling loads usingPrice for Thermal Integrity Improvements Cooling Load Total

Johnson, F.X.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Natural Gas Oil Lighting 0-1 hrs 1-2 his 2-3 hrs Usage levelgas Oil Dishwasher End-Use Lighting 0-1 hrs 1-2 hrs Usagegas Oil Dishwasher End-Use Lighting 0-1 hrs 1-2 hrs Usage

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Efficiency Choice 6.3 New Home HVAC System Choice 6.4. NewJuly. EPRI. 1990. REEPS 2.0 HVAC Model Logic, prepared by1990. Review of Equipment HVAC Choice Parameters. Cambridge

Johnson, F.X.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

heaters, clothes washers, dishwashers, lighting, cooking,Refrigerators Water Heaters Dishwashers Clothes Washersof its useful life. For dishwashers, clothes washers, and

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

gas Oil Secondary Heating Wood Stove Secondary Cooling RoomTotal Secondary Heating Wood Stove Secondary Cooling Room ACConsumption Secondary Heating Wood Stove Secondary Cooling

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

light bulbs having designated usage level in the average house. (3) Refrigerator marketlight bulbs having designated usage level in the average house. (3) Refrigerator market

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

year consumption estimates. DISCUSSION The Importance of Miscellaneous ElectricityConsumption of New Equipment Index kWh/Year MMBtu/Year MMBtu/Year ElectricityConsumption of Equipment in Existing Homes Index kWh/Year MMBtu/Year MMBtu/Year Electricity

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

298

Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Richard E. Brown, James W. Hanford, Alan H . Sanstad, andFrancis X . , James W. Hanford, Richard E. Brown, Alan H.place for these end-uses (Hanford et al. 1994, Hwang et al.

Koomey, Jonathan G.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Research, Inc. July 25. Hanford, James W. , Jonathan G.Francis X . and James W. Hanford. 1992. Memorandum toA : Ritschard, Ron L. , Jim W. Hanford and A. Osman Sezgen.

Johnson, F.X.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Analysis: Studies in Residential Energy Demand. AcademicHousing Characteristics 1987, Residential Energy ConsumptionHousing Characteristics 1990, Residential Energy Consumption

Johnson, F.X.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Techniques for Use in Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Quantitative hydrologic forecasting usually requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. First, it is important to accurately measure the precipitation falling over a particular watershed of interest. Second, ...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Michael D. Hudlow

1984-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 - Residential Demand Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

residential.gif (5487 bytes) residential.gif (5487 bytes) The NEMS Residential Demand Module forecasts future residential sector energy requirements based on projections of the number of households and the stock, efficiency, and intensity of use of energy-consuming equipment. The Residential Demand Module projections begin with a base year estimates of the housing stock, the types and numbers of energy-consuming appliances servicing the stock, and the “unit energy consumption” by appliance (or UEC—in million Btu per household per year). The projection process adds new housing units to the stock, determines the equipment installed in new units, retires existing housing units, and retires and replaces appliances. The primary exogenous drivers for the module are housing starts by type (single-family, multifamily and mobile homes) and Census Division and prices for each energy source for each of the nine Census Divisions. The Residential Demand Module also requires projections of available equipment over the forecast horizon. Over time, equipment efficiency tends to increase because of general technological advances and also because of Federal and/or state efficiency standards. As energy prices and available equipment changes over the forecast horizon, the module includes projected changes to the type and efficiency of equipment purchased as well as projected changes in the usage intensity of the equipment stock.

303

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Residential Demand Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Residential Demand Module forecasts future residential sector energy requirements based on projections of the number of households and the stock, efficiency, and intensity of use of energy-consuming equipment. The Residential Demand Module projections begin with a base year estimates of the housing stock, the types and numbers of energy-consuming appliances servicing the stock, and the “unit energy consumption” by appliance (or UEC—in million Btu per household per year). The projection process adds new housing units to the stock, determines the equipment installed in new units, retires existing housing units, and retires and replaces appliances. The primary exogenous drivers for the module are housing starts by type (single-family, multifamily and mobile homes) and Census Division and prices for each energy source for each of the nine Census Divisions. The Residential Demand Module also requires projections of available equipment over the forecast horizon. Over time, equipment efficiency tends to increase because of general technological advances and also because of Federal and/or state efficiency standards. As energy prices and available equipment changes over the forecast horizon, the module includes projected changes to the type and efficiency of equipment purchased as well as projected changes in the usage intensity of the equipment stock.

304

Study of capital requirements for solar energy. Final report, Volume 1. Analysis of the macroeconomic effects of increased solar energy market penetration  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This report defines the analytical framework for, and presents the results of, a study to determine the macroeconomic effects of increased market penetration of solar energy technologies over the 1977-2000 time period. For the purposes of this document, solar technologies are defined as wind, photovoltaics, ocean thermal electric (OTEC), small-scale (non-utility) hydroelectric and all solar active and passive thermal technologies. This research has been undertaken in support of the National Plan to Accelerate Commercialization (NPAC) of Solar Energy. The capital and operating requirements for three market penetration levels are first determined; the effects of these requirements on economic performance are then estimated using the Hudson-Jorgenson Energy/Economic Model. The analytical design, computational methods, data sources, assumptions and scenario configurations for this analysis are defined in detail. The results of the analysis of the economic impact of solar energy are presented in detail, and the implications of these results are discussed. Appendix A explains the methodology for transforming investment to capital stocks. Appendix B, which is provided in a separate volume, describes the Hudson-Jorgenson Model in greater detail. (WHK)

Pleatsikas, C.J.; Hudson, E.A.; O'Connor, D.C.; Funkhouser, D.H.

1979-07-19T23:59:59.000Z

305

Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l­ Load forecast methodology ­ Drivers of the forecast f i­ Treatment of conservation ­ Incorporating impact of weather ­ Forecast for 2019 #12;Regional Loads (MWA and MW)Regional Loads (MWA and MW

306

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

307

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia

308

Combining forecast weights: Why and how?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions

Yip Chee Yin; Ng Kok-Haur; Lim Hock-Eam

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY dmitry.kucharavy@insa-strasbourg.fr Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

310

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

311

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form

312

Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates

313

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

314

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

315

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

316

Fuzzy forecasting with DNA computing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

There are many forecasting techniques including: exponential smoothing, ARIMA model, GARCH model, neural networks and genetic algorithm, etc. Since financial time series may be influenced by many factors, conventional model based techniques and hard ...

Don Jyh-Fu Jeng; Junzo Watada; Berlin Wu; Jui-Yu Wu

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

Sampling Errors in Seasonal Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The limited numbers of start dates and ensemble sizes in seasonal forecasts lead to sampling errors in predictions. Defining the magnitude of these sampling errors would be useful for end users as well as informing decisions on resource ...

Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

Scoring Rules for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of probabilistic forecast verification is approached from a theoretical point of view starting from three basic desiderata: additivity, exclusive dependence on physical observations (“locality”), and strictly proper behavior. By ...

Riccardo Benedetti

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Wavelets and Field Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current field forecast verification measures are inadequate, primarily because they compress the comparison between two complex spatial field processes into one number. Discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) applied to analysis and contemporaneous ...

William M. Briggs; Richard A. Levine

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity ...

Peter Lynch

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

A Comparison of the Free Ride and CISK Assumptions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In a recent paper Fraedrich and McBride have studied the relation between the “free ride” and CISK (conditional instability of the second kind) assumptions in a well-known two-layer model. Here the comparison is extended to a more general case. ...

Torben Strunge Pedersen

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Light truck forecasts  

SciTech Connect

The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.

Liepins, G.E.

1979-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...

Marion P. Mittermaier

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near–real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...

Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numerical–statistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value ...

Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

328

Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, fire managers need ...

Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...

J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

330

Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...

Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Differences of opinion exist among forecasters—and between forecasters and users—regarding the meaning of the phrase “good (bad) weather forecasts.” These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or understanding concerning the ...

Allan H. Murphy

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

Primordial Helium Abundance from CMB: a constraint from recent observations and a forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We study a constraint on the primordial helium abundance $Y_p$ from current and future observations of CMB. Using the currently available data from WMAP, ACBAR, CBI and BOOMERANG, we obtained the constraint as $Y_p = 0.25 \\pm 0.10$ at 1$\\sigma$ level. We also provide a forecast for Planck using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. In addition to forecasting the constraint on $Y_p$, we investigate how assumptions for $Y_p$ affect the constraints on the other cosmological parameters.

Ichikawa, Kazuhide; Takahashi, Tomo

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

Primordial Helium Abundance from CMB: a constraint from recent observations and a forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We studied a constraint on the primordial helium abundance Y_p from current and future observations of CMB. Using the currently available data from WMAP, ACBAR, CBI and BOOMERANG, we obtained the constraint as Y_p = 0.25^{+0.10}_{-0.07} at 68% C.L. We also provide a forecast for the Planck experiment using the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. In addition to forecasting the constraint on Y_p, we investigate how assumptions for Y_p affect constraints on the other cosmological parameters.

Kazuhide Ichikawa; Toyokazu Sekiguchi; Tomo Takahashi

2007-12-28T23:59:59.000Z

334

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - Industrial Demand Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Industrial Demand Module Industrial Demand Module The NEMS Industrial Demand Module estimates energy consumption by energy source (fuels and feedstocks) for 9 manufacturing and 6 nonmanufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are further subdivided into the energy-intensive manufacturing industries and nonenergy-intensive manufacturing industries. The distinction between the two sets of manufacturing industries pertains to the level of modeling. The manufacturing industries are modeled through the use of a detailed process flow or end use accounting procedure, whereas the nonmanufacturing industries are modeled with substantially less detail (Table 19). The Industrial Demand Module forecasts energy consumption at the four Census region levels; energy consumption at the Census Division level is allocated

335

Base Resource Forecasts - Power Marketing - Sierra Nevada Region...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Marketing > Base Resource Forecasts Base Resource Forecasts Note: Annual, rolling (monthly for 12 months), base resource forecasts are posted when they become available. Annual...

336

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute of89 (1999) 109—129 Forecasting new product penetration with ?

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

Overestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a TDM Policy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

M. , Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy.change and social forecasting: the case of telecommuting asOverestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a

Tal, Gil

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

NoVaS Transformations: Flexible Inference for Volatility Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Correlation Forecasting” in G. Elliott, C.W.J.Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland,Transformations”, forthcoming in Forecasting in the Presence

Politis, Dimitris N; Thomakos, Dimitrios D

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

339

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute ofchoice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel89 (1999) 109—129 Forecasting new product penetration with

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

340

Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J.2000), Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J.F.F. (2006), The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability

Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

P, Fitzgerald G: Regression forecasting of patient admissionapproach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergencySJ, Haug PJ, Snow GL: Forecasting daily patient volumes in

Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

Forecasting Danerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

costs could alter forecasting skill and the predictors thatForecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofOn-Line Working Paper Series Forecasting Dangerous Inmate

Berk, Richard A.; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, John-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible

Richard A. Berk; Susan B. Sorenson; Yan He

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

344

Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Goulias Page 84 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:Goulias Page 80 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:L. Demographic Forecasting with a Dynamic Stochastic

Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Goulias, Konstadinos G.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...

346

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts

347

EIA-Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Renewable Fuels Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Renewable Fuels Module Renewable Fuels Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Renewable Fuels Module The NEMS Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) provides natural resources supply and technology input information for forecasts of new central-station U.S. electricity generating capacity using renewable energy resources. The RFM has seven submodules representing various renewable energy sources, biomass, geothermal, conventional hydroelectricity, landfill gas, solar thermal, solar photovoltaics, and wind.112 Some renewables, such as landfill gas (LFG) from municipal solid waste (MSW) and other biomass materials, are fuels in the conventional sense of the word, while others, such as water, wind, and solar radiation, are energy sources that do not involve the production or consumption of a fuel. Renewable technologies cover the gamut of commercial market penetration, from hydroelectric power, which was one of the first electric generation technologies, to newer power systems using biomass, geothermal, LFG, solar, and wind energy. In some cases, they require technological innovation to become cost effective or have inherent characteristics, such as intermittency, which make their penetration into the electricity grid dependent upon new methods for integration within utility system plans or upon the availability of low-cost energy storage systems.

348

Assumption Parish, Louisiana: Energy Resources | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Assumption Parish, Louisiana: Energy Resources Assumption Parish, Louisiana: Energy Resources Jump to: navigation, search Equivalent URI DBpedia Coordinates 29.9232544°, -91.09694° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":29.9232544,"lon":-91.09694,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

349

PROJECT MANGEMENT PLAN EXAMPLES Policy & Operational Decisions, Assumptions  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Policy & Operational Decisions, Assumptions Policy & Operational Decisions, Assumptions and Strategies Examples 1 & 2 Example 1 1.0 Summary The 322-M Metallurgical Laboratory is currently categorized as a Radiological Facility. It is inactive with no future DOE mission. In May of 1998 it was ranked Number 45 in the Inactive Facilities Risk Ranking database which the Facilities Decommissioning Division maintains. A short-term surveillance and maintenance program is in-place while the facility awaits final deactivation. Completion of the end points described in this deactivation project plan will place the 322-M facility into an End State that can be described as "cold and dark". The facility will be made passively safe requiring minimal surveillance and no scheduled maintenance.

350

Cost and Performance Assumptions for Modeling Electricity Generation Technologies  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Cost and Performance Cost and Performance Assumptions for Modeling Electricity Generation Technologies Rick Tidball, Joel Bluestein, Nick Rodriguez, and Stu Knoke ICF International Fairfax, Virginia Subcontract Report NREL/SR-6A20-48595 November 2010 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 Cost and Performance Assumptions for Modeling Electricity Generation Technologies Rick Tidball, Joel Bluestein, Nick Rodriguez, and Stu Knoke ICF International Fairfax, Virginia NREL Technical Monitor: Jordan Macknick

351

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - Introduction  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 20021 (AEO2002), including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports.2 A synopsis of NEMS, the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented in The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview.3 The National Energy Modeling System The projections in the AEO2002 were produced with the National Energy Modeling System. NEMS is developed and maintained by the Office of

352

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Errata  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 as of 4/4/2000 1. On table 20 "the fractional fuel efficiency change for 4-Speed Automatic" should be .045 instead of .030. On table 20 "the fractional fuel efficiency change for 5-Speed Automatic" should be .065 instead of .045. (Change made on 3/6/2000) 2. Table 28 should be labeled: "Alternative-Fuel Vehicle Attribute Inputs for Compact Cars for Two Stage Logit Model". (Change made on 3/6/2000) 3. The capital costs in Table 29 should read 1998 dollars not 1988 dollars. (Change made on 3/6/2000) 4. Table 37 changed the label "Year Available" to "First Year Completed." Changed the second sentence of Footnote 1 to read "these estimates are costs of new projects

353

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Petroleum Market  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Petroleum Market Module Petroleum Market Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Petroleum Market Module Figure 9., Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Table 11.1. Petroleum Product Categories. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. printer-friendly version Table 11.2. Year Round Gasoline Specifications by Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. printer-friendly version Table 11.3. Gasolline Sulfur Content Assumptions, by Region and Gasoline Type, Parts per Million (PPM). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. printer-friendly version

354

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Report  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7, DOE/EIA- 7, DOE/EIA- M068(2007). Based on fuel prices and electricity demands provided by the other modules of the NEMS, the EMM determines the most economical way to supply electricity, within environmental and operational constraints. There are assumptions about the operations of the electricity sector and the costs of various options in each of the EMM submodules. This section describes the model parameters and assumptions used in EMM. It includes a discussion of legislation and regulations that are incorporated in EMM as well as information about the climate change action plan. The various electricity and technology cases are also described. EMM Regions The supply regions used in EMM are based on the North American Electric Reliability Council regions and

355

Effects of internal gain assumptions in building energy calculations  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The utilization of direct solar gains in buildings can be affected by operating profiles, such as schedules for internal gains, thermostat controls, and ventilation rates. Building energy analysis methods use various assumptions about these profiles. The effects of typical internal gain assumptions in energy calculations are described. Heating and cooling loads from simulations using the DOE 2.1 computer code are compared for various internal-gain inputs: typical hourly profiles, constant average profiles, and zero gain profiles. Prototype single-family-detached and multi-family-attached residential units are studied with various levels of insulation and infiltration. Small detached commercial buildings and attached zones in large commercial buildings are studied with various levels of internal gains. The results of this study indicate that calculations of annual heating and cooling loads are sensitive to internal gains, but in most cases are relatively insensitive to hourly variations in internal gains.

Christensen, C.; Perkins, R.

1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Assumptions to the Annual Energy  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) provides natural resources supply and technology input information for forecasts of new central-station U.S. electricity generating capacity using renewable energy resources. The RFM has seven submodules representing various renewable energy sources, biomass, geothermal, conventional hydroelectricity, landfill gas, solar thermal, solar photovoltaics, and wind108. Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) provides natural resources supply and technology input information for forecasts of new central-station U.S. electricity generating capacity using renewable energy resources. The RFM has seven submodules representing various renewable energy sources, biomass, geothermal, conventional hydroelectricity, landfill gas, solar thermal, solar photovoltaics, and wind108. Some renewables, such as landfill gas (LFG) from municipal solid waste (MSW) and other biomass materials, are fuels in the conventional sense of the word, while others, such as water, wind, and solar radiation, are energy sources that do not involve the production or consumption of a fuel. Renewable technologies cover the gamut of commercial market penetration, from hydroelectric power, which was one of the first electric generation technologies, to newer power systems using biomass, geothermal, LFG, solar, and wind energy. In some cases, they require technological innovation to become cost effective or have inherent characteristics, such as intermittency, which make their penetration into the electricity grid dependent upon new methods for integration within utility system plans or upon the availability of low-cost energy storage systems.

357

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Assumptions to the Annual Energy  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Market Module Electricity Market Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 The NEMS Electricity Market Module (EMM) represents the capacity planning, dispatching, and pricing of electricity. It is composed of four submodules—electricity capacity planning, electricity fuel dispatching, load and demand electricity, and electricity finance and pricing. It includes nonutility capacity and generation, and electricity transmission and trade. A detailed description of the EMM is provided in the EIA publication, Electricity Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2006, DOE/EIA- M068(2006). Based on fuel prices and electricity demands provided by the other modules of the NEMS, the EMM determines the most economical way to supply electricity, within environmental and operational constraints. There are assumptions about the operations of the electricity sector and the costs of various options in each of the EMM submodules. This section describes the model parameters and assumptions used in EMM. It includes a discussion of legislation and regulations that are incorporated in EMM as well as information about the climate change action plan. The various electricity and technology cases are also described.

358

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Electricity Market Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Market Module Electricity Market Module Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Electricity Market Module The NEMS Electricity Market Module (EMM) represents the capacity planning, dispatching, and pricing of electricity. It is composed of four submodules—electricity capacity planning, electricity fuel dispatching, load and demand-side management, and electricity finance and pricing. It includes nonutility capacity and generation, and electricity transmission and trade. A detailed description of the EMM is provided in the EIA publication, Electricity Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2004, DOE/EIA- M068(2004). Based on fuel prices and electricity demands provided by the other modules of the NEMS, the EMM determines the most economical way to supply electricity, within environmental and operational constraints. There are assumptions about the operations of the electricity sector and the costs of various options in each of the EMM submodules. This section describes the model parameters and assumptions used in EMM. It includes a discussion of legislation and regulations that are incorporated in EMM as well as information about the climate change action plan. The various electricity and technology cases are also described.

359

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 - Electricity Market  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Market Module Electricity Market Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Electricity Market Module The NEMS Electricity Market Module (EMM) represents the capacity planning, dispatching, and pricing of electricity. It is composed of four submodules—electricity capacity planning, electricity fuel dispatching, load and demand electricity, and electricity finance and pricing. It includes nonutility capacity and generation, and electricity transmission and trade. A detailed description of the EMM is provided in the EIA publication, Electricity Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2008, DOE/EIA-M068(2008). Based on fuel prices and electricity demands provided by the other modules of the NEMS, the EMM determines the most economical way to supply electricity, within environmental and operational constraints. There are assumptions about the operations of the electricity sector and the costs of various options in each of the EMM submodules. This section describes the model parameters and assumptions used in EMM. It includes a discussion of legislation and regulations that are incorporated in EMM as well as information about the climate change action plan. The various electricity and technology cases are also described.

360

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Macroeconomic models of consumer demand for consumer packaged goods in Asia  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CPGCo, a global manufacturer of consumer packaged goods, has had tremendous difficulty in producing accurate forecasts for its products in developing markets. The problem was especially apparent during the global economic ...

Mau, Jonathan

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

362

A Statistical Solar Flare Forecast Method  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction has been developed, which uses only the event statistics of flares already observed. The method is simple, objective, and makes few ad hoc assumptions. It is argued that this approach should be used to provide a baseline prediction for certain space weather purposes, upon which other methods, incorporating additional information, can improve. A practical implementation of the method for whole-Sun prediction of Geostationary Observational Environment Satellite (GOES) events is described in detail, and is demonstrated for 4 November 2003, the day of the largest recorded GOES flare. A test of the method is described based on the historical record of GOES events (1975-2003), and a detailed comparison is made with US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predictions for 1987-2003. Although the NOAA forecasts incorporate a variety of other information, the present method out-performs the NOAA method in predicting mean numbers of event days, for both M-X and X events. Skill scores and other measures show that the present method is slightly less accurate at predicting M-X events than the NOAA method, but substantially more accurate at predicting X events, which are important contributors to space weather.

M. S. Wheatland

2005-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

363

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

364

A Review of Numerical Forecast Guidance for Hurricane Hugo  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerical forecast guidance for Hurricane Hugo from the National Meteorological Center is examined, as well as forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. No one forecast product ...

John H. Ward

1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

365

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...

Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery orders using forecasts provided by their customers. Our goal is to improve the supplier's operations through a better un- derstanding of the customers's forecast behavior. Unfortunately, customer forecasts

Murphy, Robert F.

368

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Commercial Demand Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Commercial Demand Module Commercial Demand Module The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module generates forecasts of commercial sector energy demand through 2020. The definition of the commercial sector is consistent with EIA’s State Energy Data System (SEDS). That is, the commercial sector includes business establishments that are not engaged in transportation or in manufacturing or other types of industrial activity (e.g., agriculture, mining or construction). The bulk of commercial sector energy is consumed within buildings; however, street lights, pumps, bridges, and public services are also included if the establishment operating them is considered commercial. Since most of commercial energy consumption occurs in buildings, the commercial module relies on the data from the EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) for

369

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - Commercial Demand Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Commercial Demand Module Commercial Demand Module The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module generates forecasts of commercial sector energy demand through 2020. The definition of the commercial sector is consistent with EIA’s State Energy Data System (SEDS). That is, the commercial sector includes business establishments that are not engaged in transportation or in manufacturing or other types of industrial activity (e.g., agriculture, mining or construction). The bulk of commercial sector energy is consumed within buildings; however, street lights, pumps, bridges, and public services are also included if the establishment operating them is considered commercial. Since most of commercial energy consumption occurs in buildings, the commercial module relies on the data from the EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) for

370

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Industrial Demand Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

The NEMS Industrial Demand Module estimates energy consumption by energy source (fuels and feedstocks) for 9 manufacturing and 6 nonmanufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are further subdivided into the energy-intensive manufacturing industries and nonenergy-intensive manufacturing industries. The distinction between the two sets of manufacturing industries pertains to the level of modeling. The energy-intensive industries are modeled through the use of a detailed process flow accounting procedure, whereas the nonenergy-intensive and the nonmanufacturing industries are modeled with substantially less detail (Table 14). The Industrial Demand Module forecasts energy consumption at the four Census region levels; energy consumption at the Census Division level is allocated by using the SEDS24 data.

371

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - Renewable Fuels Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Renewable Fuels Module Renewable Fuels Module The NEMS Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) provides natural resources supply and technology input information for forecasts of new central-station U.S. electricity generating capacity using renewable energy resources. The RFM has five submodules representing various renewable energy sources, biomass, geothermal, landfill gas, solar, and wind; a sixth renewable, conventional hydroelectric power, is represented in the Electricity Market Module (EMM).117 Some renewables, such as landfill gas (LFG) from municipal solid waste (MSW) and other biomass materials, are fuels in the conventional sense of the word, while others, such as wind and solar radiation, are energy sources that do not involve the production or consumption of a fuel. Renewable technologies cover the gamut of commercial market penetration,

372

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Petroleum Market Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Petroleum Market Module Petroleum Market Module The NEMS Petroleum Market Module (PMM) forecasts petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil (both domestic and imported), petroleum product imports, other refinery inputs including alcohol and ethers, natural gas plant liquids production, and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates capacity expansion and fuel consumption of domestic refineries. The PMM contains a linear programming representation of refining activities in three U.S. regions. This representation provides the marginal costs of production for a number of traditional and new petroleum products. The linear programming results are used to determine end-use product prices for

373

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - Natural Gas Transmission  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module The NEMS Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module (NGTDM) derives domestic natural gas production, wellhead and border prices, end-use prices, and flows of natural gas through the regional interstate network, for both a peak (December through March) and off peak period during each forecast year. These are derived by solving for the market equilibrium across the three main components of the natural gas market: the supply component, the demand component, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. In addition, natural gas flow patterns are a function of the pattern in the previous year, coupled with the relative prices of gas supply options as translated to the represented market

374

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Renewable Fuels Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Renewable Fuels Module Renewable Fuels Module The NEMS Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) provides natural resources supply and technology input information for forecasts of new central-station U.S. electricity generating capacity using renewable energy resources. The RFM has five submodules representing various renewable energy sources, biomass, geothermal, landfill gas, solar, and wind; a sixth renewable, conventional hydroelectric power, is represented in the Electricity Market Module (EMM).112 Some renewables, such as landfill gas (LFG) from municipal solid waste (MSW) and other biomass materials, are fuels in the conventional sense of the word, while others, such as wind and solar radiation, are energy sources that do not involve the production or consumption of a fuel. Renewable technologies cover the gamut of commercial market penetration,

375

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - Residential Demand Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Residential Demand Module Residential Demand Module The NEMS Residential Demand Module forecasts future residential sector energy requirements based on projections of the number of households and the stock, efficiency, and intensity of use of energy-consuming equipment. The Residential Demand Module projections begin with a base year estimates of the housing stock, the types and numbers of energy-consuming appliances servicing the stock, and the “unit energy consumption” by appliance (or UEC—in million Btu per household per year). The projection process adds new housing units to the stock, determines the equipment installed in new units, retires existing housing units, and retires and replaces appliances. The primary exogenous drivers for the module are housing starts by type (single-family, multifamily and mobile homes) and

376

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Residential Demand Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Residential Demand Module Residential Demand Module The NEMS Residential Demand Module forecasts future residential sector energy requirements based on projections of the number of households and the stock, efficiency, and intensity of use of energy-consuming equipment. The Residential Demand Module projections begin with a base year estimates of the housing stock, the types and numbers of energy-consuming appliances servicing the stock, and the “unit energy consumption” by appliance (or UEC—in million Btu per household per year). The projection process adds new housing units to the stock, determines the equipment installed in new units, retires existing housing units, and retires and replaces appliances. The primary exogenous drivers for the module are housing starts by type (single-family, multifamily and mobile homes) and

377

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Household Expenditures  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Commercial Sector Demand Module generates forecasts of commercial sector energy demand through 2020. The definition of the commercial sector is consistent with EIA’s State Energy Data System (SEDS). That is, the commercial sector includes business establishments that are not engaged in transportation or in manufacturing or other types of industrial activity (e.g., agriculture, mining or construction). The bulk of commercial sector energy is consumed within buildings; however, street lights, pumps, bridges, and public services are also included if the establishment operating them is considered commercial. Since most of commercial energy consumption occurs in buildings, the commercial module relies on the data from the EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) for characterizing the commercial sector activity mix as well as the equipment stock and fuels consumed to provide end use services.12

378

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Natural Gas Transmission  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module The NEMS Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module (NGTDM) derives domestic natural gas production, wellhead and border prices, end-use prices, and flows of natural gas through the regional interstate network, for both a peak (December through March) and off peak period during each forecast year. These are derived by solving for the market equilibrium across the three main components of the natural gas market: the supply component, the demand component, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. In addition, natural gas flow patterns are a function of the pattern in the previous year, coupled with the relative prices of gas supply options as translated to the represented market

379

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 - Commercial Demand Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

commercial.gif (5196 bytes) commercial.gif (5196 bytes) The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module generates forecasts of commercial sector energy demand through 2020. The definition of the commercial sector is consistent with EIA’s State Energy Data System (SEDS). That is, the commercial sector includes business establishments that are not engaged in transportation or in manufacturing or other types of industrial activity (e.g., agriculture, mining or construction). The bulk of commercial sector energy is consumed within buildings, however, street lights, pumps, bridges, and public services are also included if the establishment operating them is considered commercial. Since most of commercial energy consumption occurs in buildings, the commercial module relies on the data from the EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) for characterizing the commercial sector activity mix as well as the equipment stock and fuels consumed to provide end use services.12

380

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - Petroleum Market Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Petroleum Market Module Petroleum Market Module The NEMS Petroleum Market Module (PMM) forecasts petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil (both domestic and imported), petroleum product imports, other refinery inputs including alcohol and ethers, natural gas plant liquids production, and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates capacity expansion and fuel consumption of domestic refineries. The PMM contains a linear programming representation of refining activities in three U.S. regions. This representation provides the marginal costs of production for a number of traditional and new petroleum products. The linear programming results are used to determine end-use product prices for

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Industrial Demand Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Comleted Copy in PDF Format Comleted Copy in PDF Format Related Links Annual Energy Outlook 2001 Supplemental Data to the AEO 2001 NEMS Conference To Forecasting Home Page EIA Homepage Industrial Demand Module The NEMS Industrial Demand Module estimates energy consumption by energy source (fuels and feedstocks) for 9 manufacturing and 6 nonmanufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are further subdivided into the energy-intensive manufacturing industries and nonenergy-intensive manufacturing industries. The distinction between the two sets of manufacturing industries pertains to the level of modeling. The manufacturing industries are modeled through the use of a detailed process flow or end use accounting procedure, whereas the nonmanufacturing industries are modeled with substantially less detail (Table 19). The

382

BUSINESS CYCLES, FISCAL STABILIZATION AND VERTICAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: ESSAYS IN INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

My dissertation studies various questions falling into the broad context of macroeconomics and international economics. The questions have macroeconomic components because they are concerned with the behavior of aggregates. Specifically, the second and third chapters of my dissertation study the causes of fluctuations in aggregate macroeconomic variables and the way policy can be coordinated internationally to reduce these fluctuations, respectively. In addition, chapters III and IV address questions that fall into the realm of international economics. They are concerned with the optimal exchange rate regime between two countries, the consequences of partial exchange rate pass-through and the effect of an increase in vertical Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) by domestic firms. The framework of my analysis is given by different versions of general equilibrium models. The second chapter of my dissertation decomposes fluctuations in aggregate observables for the UK economy during the 1980s recession. Using a modern accounting procedure, I estimate parameters that describe the economy using annual data from 1970 to 2002. Then, I simulate different versions of the model to find the distortions that are essential in driving the observed fluctuations. I find labor market distortions to be crucial in accounting for the episode, suggesting that the policies of the time were well targeted and effective. The third chapter of my dissertation studies policy coordination in a two-country framework allowing for partial pass-through. In particular, both countries are assumed to have monetary and fiscal stabilization instruments available. The optimal setting of these instruments under differing pass-through regimes is analytically derived. Fiscal policy is found to be used in a counter-cyclical fashion. In addition, the magnitude of fiscal stabilization is the largest when pass-through is partial. In the fourth chapter, I study the consequences of vertical FDI on aggregate productivity and welfare. The framework allows for heterogeneity across firms in two dimensions. It is firms that are at a disadvantage with respect to manufacturing costs that are benefiting most from moving their production process abroad. Overall, the ability to engage in vertical FDI increases productivity, lowers prices and thus increases welfare.

Kersting, Erasmus K.

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical ...

Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson; Ted L. Tsui

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...

Lance F. Bosart

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Forecaster Workstation Design: Concepts and Issues  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Some basic ideas about designing a meteorological workstation for operational weather forecasting are presented, in part as a complement to the recently published discussion of workstation design by R. R. Hoffman. Scientific weather forecasting ...

Charles A. Doswell III

1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society “ENSO forecast plume” during the 2002–11 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Local Forecast Communication In The Altiplano  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts play an important role in planting decisions for Andean peasant producers. Predictions of the upcoming cropping season determine when, where, and what farmers will plant. This research looks at the sources of forecast information used ...

Jere L. Gilles; Corinne Valdivia

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (...

Andreas Röpnack; Andreas Hense; Christoph Gebhardt; Detlev Majewski

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...

Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem

2004-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

390

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing

de Lijser, Peter

391

Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

Trepte, Kai

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...

Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because ...

Eric Gilleland; David Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Barbara Casati; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, ...

Emily Wallace; Alberto Arribas

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for River Basins  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology has been formulated to aid a field forecaster in preparing probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for river basins. The format of probabilistic QPF is designed to meet three requirements: (i) it is compatible with ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; William J. Drzal; Theresa Rossi Drake; James C. Weyman; Louis A. Giordano

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

A General Framework for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described. For further elaboration of the framework, two factorizations of the joint distribution are investigated: 1) the calibration-...

Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler

1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

397

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

Value from Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explores the objective application of ambiguity information, that is, the uncertainty in forecast probability derived from an ensemble. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with forecast uncertainty ...

Mark S. Allen; F. Anthony Eckel

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Management of supply chain: an alternative modelling technique for forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view

Datta, Shoumen

2007-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

400

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO FrÂŽedÂŽeric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis  

SciTech Connect

This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.

Cazalet, E.G.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

402

A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

that are fit for their purpose; for example, returningaggregate county and sector forecasts that are consistent by construction....

Satchell, Stephen E; Wright, Stephen M

2006-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

403

Forecasting Techniques Utilized by the Forecast Branch of the National Meteorological Center During a Major Convective Rainfall Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Meteorologists within the Forecast Branch (FB) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) produce operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). These manual forecasts are prepared utilizing various forecasting techniques, which are ...

Theodore W. Funk

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

404

Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the U.S. National Weather Service  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast verification in operational hydrology has been very limited to date, mainly due to the complexity of verifying both forcing input forecasts and hydrologic forecasts on multiple space–time scales. However, forecast verification needs to ...

Julie Demargne; Mary Mullusky; Kevin Werner; Thomas Adams; Scott Lindsey; Noreen Schwein; William Marosi; Edwin Welles

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

405

Long range forecast of power demands on the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company system. Volume 1  

SciTech Connect

The report presents the results of an econometric forecast of peak and electric power demands for the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BGandE) through the year 2003. The report describes the methodology, the results of the econometric estimations and associated summary statistics, the forecast assumptions, and the calculated forecasts of energy usage and peak demand. Separate models were estimated for summer and winter residential electricity usage in both Baltimore city and the non-city portion of the BGandE service area. Equations were also estimated for commercial energy usage, industrial usage, streetlighting, and for losses plus Company use. Non-econometric techniques were used to estimate future energy use by Bethlehem Steel Corporation's Sparrows Point plant in Baltimore County, Conrail, and the Baltimore Mass Transit Administration underground rail system. Models of peak demand for summer and winter were also estimated.

Estomin, S.L.; Kahal, M.I.

1985-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...

2013-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

407

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

408

Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity 29, 2012 Preliminary Results of the Electricity Price Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity market price forecast. A summary of the work

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

409

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

410

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

411

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

412

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

413

Load forecast and treatment of conservation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservation in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast

414

FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs

415

STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 report, Staff Forecast: Retail Electricity Prices, 2005 to 2018, was prepared with contributions from the technical assistance provided by Greg Broeking of R.W. Beck, Inc. in preparing retail price forecasts

416

Blue Chip Consensus US GDP Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and metro area from Moody’s Economy.com Equivalent to US-level Gross Domestic Product ? The GMP forecasts have a large impact on the peak load forecasts Rule of thumb: 1 % growth in RTO GMP ? approx. 1,000 MW growth in forecast RTO peak load

James F. Wilson

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

417

5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

418

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used

419

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

420

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

EIA Administrator's Press Briefing on the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - Errata as of 3698 Data from the AEO98 Assumptions to the AEO98 (Nat'Gas...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Electricity Market Demand  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Market Module (EMM) represents the planning, operations, and pricing of electricity in the United States. It is composed of four primary submodules—electricity capacity planning, electricity fuel dispatching, load and demand-side management, and electricity finance and pricing. In addition, nonutility generation and supply and electricity transmission and trade are represented in the planning and dispatching submodules. Electricity Market Module (EMM) represents the planning, operations, and pricing of electricity in the United States. It is composed of four primary submodules—electricity capacity planning, electricity fuel dispatching, load and demand-side management, and electricity finance and pricing. In addition, nonutility generation and supply and electricity transmission and trade are represented in the planning and dispatching submodules. Based on fuel prices and electricity demands provided by the other modules of the NEMS, the EMM determines the most economical way to supply electricity, within environmental and operational constraints. There are assumptions about the operations of the electricity sector and the costs of various options in each of the EMM submodules. The major assumptions are summarized below.

422

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

423

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach can forecast the price of a notebook computer up to four months in advance of its introduction with an average error of under 10% and the rate of price erosion to within 10% of the price for seven months after introduction-the length of the typical life cycle of a notebook. Since all data are publicly available, this approach can be used to assist managerial decision making in the notebook computer industry, for example, in determining when and how to upgrade a model and when to introduce a new model.

Rutherford, Derek Paul

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

424

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

425

How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.

2001-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

426

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 - Table 1  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Summary of AEO99 Cases Summary of AEO99 Cases Case Name Description Integration mode Reference Baseline economic growth, world oil price, and technology assumptions Fully Integrated Low Economic Growth Gross Domestic product grows at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent, compared to the reference case growth of 2.1 percent. Fully Integrated High Economic Growth Gross domestic product grows at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent, compared to the reference case growth of 2.1 percent. Fully Integrated Low World Oil Price World oil prices are $14.57 per barrel in 2020, compared to $22.73 per barrel in the reference case. Partially Integrated High World Oil Price World oil prices are $29.35 per barrel in 2020, compared to $22.73 per barrel in the reference case. Partially Integrated Residential: 1999 Technology

427

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Electricity Market  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Market Module Electricity Market Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Electricity Market Module figure 6. Electricity Market Model Supply Regions. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. The NEMS Electricity Market Module (EMM) represents the capacity planning, dispatching, and pricing of electricity. It is composed of four submodules—electricity capacity planning, electricity fuel dispatching, load and demand electricity, and electricity finance and pricing. It includes nonutility capacity and generation, and electricity transmission and trade. A detailed description of the EMM is provided in the EIA publication, Electricity Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System 2009, DOE/EIA-M068(2009). Based on fuel prices and electricity demands provided by the other modules

428

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 - Natural Gas  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Figure 8. Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model Regions. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. The NEMS Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module (NGTDM) derives domestic natural gas production, wellhead and border prices, end-use prices, and flows of natural gas through the regional interstate network, for both a peak (December through March) and off peak period during each projection year. These are derived by solving for the market equilibrium across the three main components of the natural gas market: the supply component, the demand component, and the transmission and distribution

429

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Transportation Demand Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Transportation Demand Module Transportation Demand Module Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Transportation Demand Module The NEMS Transportation Demand Module estimates energy consumption across the nine Census Divisions (see Figure 5) and over ten fuel types. Each fuel type is modeled according to fuel-specific technology attributes applicable by transportation mode. Total transportation energy consumption is the sum of energy use in eight transport modes: light-duty vehicles (cars, light trucks, sport utility vehicles and vans), commercial light trucks (8,501-10,000 lbs gross vehicle weight), freight trucks (>10,000 lbs gross vehicle weight), freight and passenger airplanes, freight rail, freight shipping, and miscellaneous transport such as mass transit. Light-duty vehicle fuel consumption is further subdivided into personal usage and commercial fleet consumption.

430

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 - Petroleum Market  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Petroleum Market Module Petroleum Market Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Petroleum Market Module Figure 9. Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. The NEMS Petroleum Market Module (PMM) projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil (both domestic and imported), petroleum product imports, unfinished oil imports, other refinery inputs (including alcohols, ethers, bioesters, corn, biomass, and coal), natural gas plant liquids production, and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM projects capacity expansion and fuel consumption at domestic refineries. The PMM contains a linear programming (LP) representation of U.S. refining

431

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Assumptions to the Annual Energy  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

International Energy Module International Energy Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 The International Energy Module determines changes in the world oil price and the supply prices of crude oils and petroleum products for import to the United States in response to changes in U.S. import requirements. A market clearing method is used to determine the price at which worldwide demand for oil is equal to the worldwide supply. The module determines new values for oil production and demand for regions outside the United States, along with a new world oil price that balances supply and demand in the international oil market. A detailed description of the International Energy Module is provided in the EIA publication, Model Documentation Report: The International Energy Module of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M071(06), (Washington, DC, February 2006).

432

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Assumptions to the Annual Energy  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Transportation Demand Module Transportation Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 The NEMS Transportation Demand Module estimates energy consumption across the nine Census Divisions (see Figure 5) and over ten fuel types. Each fuel type is modeled according to fuel-specific technology attributes applicable by transportation mode. Total transportation energy consumption isthe sum of energy use in eight transport modes: light-duty vehicles (cars and light trucks), commercial light trucks (8,501-10,000 lbs gross vehicle weight), freight trucks (>10,000 lbs gross vehicle weight), freight and passenger aircraft, freight rail, freight shipping, and miscellaneous transport such as mass transit. Light-duty vehicle fuel consumption is further subdivided into personal usage and commercial fleet consumption.

433

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 - Transportation Demand  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Transportation Demand Module Transportation Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Transportation Demand Module The NEMS Transportation Demand Module estimates energy consumption across the nine Census Divisions (see Figure 5) and over ten fuel types. Each fuel type is modeled according to fuel-specific technology attributes applicable by transportation mode. Total transportation energy consumption is the sum of energy use in eight transport modes: light-duty vehicles (cars and light trucks), commercial light trucks (8,501-10,000 lbs gross vehicle weight), freight trucks (>10,000 lbs gross vehicle weight), freight and passenger aircraft, freight rail, freight shipping, and miscellaneous transport such as mass transit. Light-duty vehicle fuel consumption is further subdivided into personal usage and commercial fleet consumption.

434

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 - International Energy  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

International Energy Module International Energy Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 International Energy Module Figure 2. World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1995-2035 Figure 2. World Oil Prices in three Cases, 1995-2035 (2008 dollars per barrel). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. figure data Figure 3. OPEC Total Liquids Production in the Reference Case, 1980-2035 Figure 3. OPEC Total Liquids Production in the Reference Case, 1995-2030 (million barrels per day). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. figure data Figure 4. Non-OPEC Total Liquids Production in the Reference Case, 1980-2035 Figure 4. Non-OPEC Total Liquids Production in the Reference Case, 1995-2030 (million barrels per day). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.

435

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Report  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7), 7), (Washington, DC, January 2007). Key Assumptions The output of the U.S. economy, measured by GDP, is expected to increase by 2.9 percent between 2005 and 2030 in the reference case. Two key factors help explain the growth in GDP: the growth rate of nonfarm employment and the rate of productivity change associated with employment. As Table 3 indicates, for the Reference Case GDP growth slows down in each of the periods identified, from 3.0 percent between 2005 and 2010, to 2.9 percent between 2010 and 2020, to 2.8 percent in the between 2020 and 2030. In the near term from 2005 through 2010, the growth in nonfarm employment is low at 1.2 percent compared with 2.4 percent in the second half of the 1990s, while the economy is expected to experiencing relatively strong

436

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - International Energy  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

International Energy Module International Energy Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 International Energy Module Figure 2. World Oil Prices in three Cases, 1995-2030 (2006 dollars per barrel). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. figure data Figure 3. OPEC Total Liquids Production in the Reference Case, 1995-2030 (million barrels per day). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. figure data Figure 4. Non-OPEC Total Liquids Production in the Reference Case, 1995-2030 (million barrels per day). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. figure data The International Energy Module (IEM) performs two tasks in all NEMS runs. First, the module reads exogenously global and U.S.A. petroleum liquids

437

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 - Industrial Demand  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Industrial Demand Module Industrial Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Industrial Demand Module The NEMS Industrial Demand Module estimates energy consumption by energy source (fuels and feedstocks) for 21 manufacturing and 6 nonmanufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are further subdivided into the energy-intensive manufacturing industries and nonenergy-intensive manufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are modeled through the use of a detailed process flow or end use accounting procedure, whereas the nonmanufacturing industries are modeled with substantially less detail (Table 17). The Industrial Demand Module projects energy consumption at the four Census region level (see Figure 5); energy consumption at the Census Division level is estimated by allocating the Census region projection using the SEDS1 data.

438

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - International Energy Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

International Energy Module International Energy Module Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook International Energy Module Figure 2. World Oil Prices in three Cases, 1970-2025. Having problems, call our National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 for help. Figure Data Figure 3. OPEC Oil Production in the Reference Case, 1970-2025. Having problems, call our National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 for help. Figure Data Figure 4. Non-OPEC Production in the Reference Case, 1970-2025. Having problems, call our National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 for help. Figure Data Table 4. Worldwide Oil Reserves as of January 1, 2002 (Billion Barrels) Printer Friendly Version Region Proved Oil Reserves Western Hemisphere 313.6 Western‘Europe 18.1 Asia-Pacific 38.7

439

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 - Residential Demand  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Residential Demand Module Residential Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Residential Demand Module Figure 5. United States Census Divisions. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. The NEMS Residential Demand Module projects future residential sector energy requirements based on projections of the number of households and the stock, efficiency, and intensity of use of energy-consuming equipment. The Residential Demand Module projections begin with a base year estimate of the housing stock, the types and numbers of energy-consuming appliances servicing the stock, and the "unit energy consumption" by appliance (or UEC-in million Btu per household per year). The projection process adds new housing units to the stock,

440

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 - Commercial Demand  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Commercial Demand Module Commercial Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Commercial Demand Module The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module generates projections of commercial sector energy demand through 2030. The definition of the commercial sector is consistent with EIA’s State Energy Data System (SEDS). That is, the commercial sector includes business establishments that are not engaged in transportation or in manufacturing or other types of industrial activity (e.g., agriculture, mining or construction). The bulk of commercial sector energy is consumed within buildings; however, street lights, pumps, bridges, and public services are also included if the establishment operating them is considered commercial. Since most of commercial energy consumption occurs in buildings, the commercial module relies on the data from the EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) for characterizing the commercial sector activity mix as well as the equipment stock and fuels consumed to provide end use services.1

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Assumptions to the Annual Energy  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil and Gas Supply Module Oil and Gas Supply Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 Figure 7. Oil and Gas Supply Model Regions. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. The NEMS Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM) constitutes a comprehensive framework with which to analyze oil and gas supply on a regional basis (Figure 7). A detailed description of the OGSM is provided in the EIA publication, Model Documentation Report: The Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), DOE/EIA-M063(2006), (Washington, DC, 2006). The OGSM provides crude oil and natural gas short-term supply parameters to both the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module and the Petroleum Market Module. The OGSM simulates the activity of numerous firms that produce oil and natural

442

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook - Industrial Demand Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Industrial Demand Module Industrial Demand Module Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook Industrial Demand Module Table 17. Industry Categories Printer Friendly Version Energy-Intensive Manufacturing Nonenergy-Intensive Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Industries Food and Kindred Products (NAICS 311) Metals-Based Durables (NAICS 332-336) Agricultural Production -Crops (NAICS 111) Paper and Allied Products (NAICS 322) Balance of Manufacturing (all remaining manufacturing NAICS) Other Agriculture Including Livestock (NAICS112- 115) Bulk Chemicals (NAICS 32B) Coal Mining (NAICS 2121) Glass and Glass Products (NAICS 3272) Oil and Gas Extraction (NAICS 211) Hydraulic Cement (NAICS 32731) Metal and Other Nonmetallic Mining (NAICS 2122- 2123) Blast Furnaces and Basic Steel (NAICS 331111) Construction (NAICS233-235)

443

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Commercial Demand  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Commercial Demand Module Commercial Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Commercial Demand Module The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module generates projections of commercial sector energy demand through 2030. The definition of the commercial sector is consistent with EIA’s State Energy Data System (SEDS). That is, the commercial sector includes business establishments that are not engaged in transportation or in manufacturing or other types of industrial activity (e.g., agriculture, mining or construction). The bulk of commercial sector energy is consumed within buildings; however, street lights, pumps, bridges, and public services are also included if the establishment operating them is considered commercial. Since most of commercial energy consumption occurs in buildings, the commercial module relies on the data from the EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) for characterizing the commercial sector activity mix as well as the equipment stock and fuels consumed to provide end use services.1

444

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Transportation Demand  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Transportation Demand Module Transportation Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Transportation Demand Module The NEMS Transportation Demand Module estimates energy consumption across the nine Census Divisions (see Figure 5) and over ten fuel types. Each fuel type is modeled according to fuel-specific technology attributes applicable by transportation mode. Total transportation energy consumption is the sum of energy use in eight transport modes: light-duty vehicles (cars and light trucks), commercial light trucks (8,501-10,000 lbs gross vehicle weight), freight trucks (>10,000 lbs gross vehicle weight), freight and passenger aircraft, freight, rail, freight shipping, and miscellaneous transport such as mass transit. Light-duty vehicle fuel consumption is further subdivided into personal usage and commercial fleet consumption.

445

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Report  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

clothes drying, ceiling fans, coffee makers, spas, home security clothes drying, ceiling fans, coffee makers, spas, home security systems, microwave ovens, set-top boxes, home audio equipment, rechargeable electronics, and VCR/DVDs. In addition to the major equipment-driven end-uses, the average energy consumption per household is projected for other electric and nonelectric appliances. The module's output includes number Energy Information Administration/Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 19 Pacific East South Central South Atlantic Middle Atlantic New England West South Central West North Central East North Central Mountain AK WA MT WY ID NV UT CO AZ NM TX OK IA KS MO IL IN KY TN MS AL FL GA SC NC WV PA NJ MD DE NY CT VT ME RI MA NH VA WI MI OH NE SD MN ND AR LA OR CA HI Middle Atlantic New England East North Central West North Central Pacific West South Central East South Central

446

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Renewable Fuels  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Renewable Fuels Module Renewable Fuels Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Renewable Fuels Module The NEMS Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) provides natural resources supply and technology input information for projections of new central-station U.S. electricity generating capacity using renewable energy resources. The RFM has seven submodules representing various renewable energy sources, biomass, geothermal, conventional hydroelectricity, landfill gas, solar thermal, solar photovoltaics, and wind1. Some renewables, such as landfill gas (LFG) from municipal solid waste (MSW) and other biomass materials, are fuels in the conventional sense of the word, while others, such as water, wind, and solar radiation, are energy sources that do not involve the production or consumption of a fuel. Renewable technologies cover the gamut of commercial market penetration, from hydroelectric power, which was one of the first electric generation technologies, to newer power systems using biomass, geothermal, LFG, solar, and wind energy.

447

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 - Commercial Demand  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Commercial Demand Module Commercial Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Commercial Demand Module The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module generates projections of commercial sector energy demand through 2035. The definition of the commercial sector is consistent with EIA’s State Energy Data System (SEDS). That is, the commercial sector includes business establishments that are not engaged in transportation or in manufacturing or other types of industrial activity (e.g., agriculture, mining or construction). The bulk of commercial sector energy is consumed within buildings; however, street lights, pumps, bridges, and public services are also included if the establishment operating them is considered commercial. Since most of commercial energy consumption occurs in buildings, the commercial module relies on the data from the EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) for characterizing the commercial sector activity mix as well as the equipment stock and fuels consumed to provide end use services [1].

448

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 - Natural Gas  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Figure 8. Natural Gas Transmission and distribution Model Regions. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. The NEMS Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module (NGTDM) derives domestic natural gas production, wellhead and border prices, end-use prices, and flows of natural gas through the regional interstate network, for both a peak (December through March) and off peak period during each projection year. These are derived by solving for the market equilibrium across the three main components of the natural gas market: the supply component, the demand component, and the transmission and

449

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 - Petroleum Market  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Petroleum Market Module Petroleum Market Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Petroleum Market Module The NEMS Petroleum Market Module (PMM) projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil (both domestic and imported), petroleum product imports, unfinished oil imports, other refinery inputs (including alcohols, ethers, bioesters, corn, biomass, and coal), natural gas plant liquids production, and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM projects capacity expansion and fuel consumption at domestic refineries. Figure 9. Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts. The PMM contains a linear programming (LP) representation of U.S. refining activities in the five Petroleum Area Defense Districts (PADDs) (Figure 9),

450

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Industrial Demand  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Industrial Demand Module Industrial Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Industrial Demand Module Table 6.1. Industry Categories. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. printer-friendly version Table 6.2.Retirement Rates. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. printer-friendly version The NEMS Industrial Demand Module estimates energy consumption by energy source (fuels and feedstocks) for 15 manufacturing and 6 nonmanufacturing industries. The manufacturing industries are further subdivided into the energy-intensive manufacturing industries and nonenergy-intensive manufacturing industries (Table 6.1). The manufacturing industries are modeled through the use of a detailed process flow or end use accounting

451

Cost and Performance Assumptions for Modeling Electricity Generation Technologies  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The goal of this project was to compare and contrast utility scale power plant characteristics used in data sets that support energy market models. Characteristics include both technology cost and technology performance projections to the year 2050. Cost parameters include installed capital costs and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Performance parameters include plant size, heat rate, capacity factor or availability factor, and plant lifetime. Conventional, renewable, and emerging electricity generating technologies were considered. Six data sets, each associated with a different model, were selected. Two of the data sets represent modeled results, not direct model inputs. These two data sets include cost and performance improvements that result from increased deployment as well as resulting capacity factors estimated from particular model runs; other data sets represent model input data. For the technologies contained in each data set, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was also evaluated, according to published cost, performance, and fuel assumptions.

Tidball, R.; Bluestein, J.; Rodriguez, N.; Knoke, S.

2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Natural Gas  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Figure 8. Natural Gas Transmission and distribution Model Regions. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. The NEMS Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module (NGTDM) derives domestic natural gas production, wellhead and border prices, end-use prices, and flows of natural gas through the regional interstate network, for both a peak (December through March) and off peak period during each projection year. These are derived by solving for the market equilibrium across the three main components of the natural gas market: the supply component, the demand component, and the transmission and distribution

453

Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document represents the progress report and Task 1 letter report of the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) contract funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC), Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF) for California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Planning Phase. Task 1 was to accomplish the following items: Collect data from CAISO to set up the WECC power flow base case representing the CAISO system in the summer of 2006 Run TRACE for maximizing California Impo...

2006-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

454

Forecasting Techniques The Use of Hourly Model-Generated Soundings to Forecast Mesoscale Phenomena. Part I: Initial Assessment in Forecasting Warm-Season Phenomena  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since late 1995, NCEP has made available to forecasters hourly model guidance at selected sites in the form of vertical profiles of various forecast fields. These profiles provide forecasters with increased temporal resolution and greater ...

Robert E. Hart; Gregory S. Forbes; Richard H. Grumm

1998-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

Meese-Rogoff redux: Micro-based exchange-rate forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Johnatban. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We'veBased Exchange-Rate Forecasting By MARTIN D . D . EVANS ANDon longer-horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over

Evans, MDD; Lyons, Richard K.

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and V. Letschert (2005). Forecasting Electricity Demand in8364 Material World: Forecasting Household ApplianceMcNeil, 2008). Forecasting Diffusion Forecasting Variables

Letschert, Virginie

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

457

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 - International Energy  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

International Energy Module International Energy Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 International Energy Module The International Energy Module (IEM) performs two tasks in all NEMS runs. First, the module reads exogenously global and U.S.A. petroleum liquids supply and demand curves (1 curve per year; 2008-2030; approximated, isoelastic fit to previous NEMS results). These quantities are not modeled directly in NEMS. Previous versions of the IEM adjusted these quantities after reading in initial values. In an attempt to more closely integrate the AEO2008 with IEO2007 and the STEO some functionality was removed from IEM while a new algorithm was implemented. Based on the difference between U.S. total petroleum liquids production (consumption) and the expected U.S. total liquids production (consumption) at the current WTI price, curves for global petroleum liquids consumption (production) were adjusted for each year. According to previous operations, a new WTI price path was generated. An exogenous oil supply module, Generate World Oil Balances (GWOB), was also used in IEM to provide annual regional (country) level production detail for conventional and unconventional liquids.

458

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 - Renewable Fuels  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Renewable Fuels Module Renewable Fuels Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Renewable Fuels Module The NEMS Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) provides natural resources supply and technology input information for projections of new central-station U.S. electricity generating capacity using renewable energy resources. The RFM has seven submodules representing various renewable energy sources, biomass, geothermal, conventional hydroelectricity, landfill gas, solar thermal, solar photovoltaics, and wind1. Some renewables, such as landfill gas (LFG) from municipal solid waste (MSW) and other biomass materials, are fuels in the conventional sense of the word, while others, such as water, wind, and solar radiation, are energy sources that do not involve the production or consumption of a fuel. Renewable technologies cover the gamut of commercial market penetration, from hydroelectric power, which was one of the first electric generation technologies, to newer power systems using biomass, geothermal, LFG, solar, and wind energy. In some cases, they require technological innovation to become cost effective or have inherent characteristics, such as intermittency, which make their penetration into the electricity grid dependent upon new methods for integration within utility system plans or upon the availability of low-cost energy storage systems.

459

EIA - Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - Residential Demand  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Residential Demand Module Residential Demand Module Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Residential Demand Module The NEMS Residential Demand Module projects future residential sector energy requirements based on projections of the number of households and the stock, efficiency, and intensity of use of energy-consuming equipment. The Residential Demand Module projections begin with a base year estimate of the housing stock, the types and numbers of energy-consuming appliances servicing the stock, and the “unit energy consumption” by appliance (or UEC—in million Btu per household per year). The projection process adds new housing units to the stock, determines the equipment installed in new units, retires existing housing units, and retires and replaces appliances. The primary exogenous drivers for the module are housing starts by type (single-family, multifamily and mobile homes) and Census Division and prices for each energy source for each of the nine Census Divisions (see Figure 5). The Residential Demand Module also requires projections of available equipment and their installed costs over the projection horizon. Over time, equipment efficiency tends to increase because of general technological advances and also because of Federal and/or state efficiency standards. As energy prices and available equipment changes over the projection horizon, the module includes projected changes to the type and efficiency of equipment purchased as well as projected changes in the usage intensity of the equipment stock.

460

Mathematical and computer modelling reports: Modeling and forecasting energy markets with the intermediate future forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the ...

Frederic H. Murphy; John J. Conti; Susan H. Shaw; Reginald Sanders

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "assumptions macroeconomic forecasts" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using one- to seven-day ensemble forecasts of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

462

Using National Air Quality Forecast Guidance to Develop Local Air Quality Index Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) currently provides next-day forecasts of ozone concentrations over the contiguous United States. It was developed collaboratively by NOAA and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in order to ...

Brian Eder; Daiwen Kang; S. Trivikrama Rao; Rohit Mathur; Shaocai Yu; Tanya Otte; Ken Schere; Richard Wayland; Scott Jackson; Paula Davidson; Jeff McQueen; George Bridgers

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for water resources planning and management as well as for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. In this study, operational streamflow forecasts are ...

A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Susan Espinueva

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

464

Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work examines the performance of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEP’s coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in near–real time. ...

Kyong-Hwan Seo; Wanqiu Wang; Jon Gottschalck; Qin Zhang; Jae-Kyung E. Schemm; Wayne R. Higgins; Arun Kumar

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest evaluated the skill of ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Daniel S. Wilks

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

466

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Evaluating the propagation of errors associated with ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) into the ensemble streamflow response is important to reduce uncertainty in operational flow forecasting. In this paper, a multifractal ...

Giuseppe Mascaro; Enrique R. Vivoni; Roberto Deidda

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

468

Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

469

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system obtained ...

David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

The Impact of Writing Area Forecast Discussions on Student Forecaster Performance  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A brief study is provided on the forecast performance of students who write a mock area forecast discussion (AFD) on a weekly basis. Student performance was tracked for one semester (11 weeks) during the University of Missouri—Columbia's local ...

Patrick S. Market

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

471

An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...

Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

Further Evaluation of the National Meterological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model Precpitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated ...

John O. Roads; T. Norman Maisal; Jordan Alpert

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2000 NEW JERSEY of growth will decelerate over the forecast period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey in 2000 looks to decelerate over the course of the forecast. These forces will combine to push the unemployment rate to more

475

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling A NOAA of the NWS's forecast products, even its regional forecast products, are constrained by the limitations of NOAA's global forecast model. Unfortunately, our global forecasts are less accurate than those from

Hamill, Tom

476

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability? M. Hashem Pesaran University of Cambridge, CIMF, and USC Andreas Pick University of Cambridge, CIMF March 11, 2008 Abstract This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used... but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single...

Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

477

Macroeconomic effects of accelerated implementation of renewable energy technologies in the US  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The original formulation of the Brookhaven energy system models was directed toward technology assessment for new and competing energy technologies. The Hudson-Jorgenson econometric model was originally formulated to identify the economic impacts of energy futures where energy-use projections departed markedly from historical trends. The two models were married so that the feedback effects of energy and nonenergy demand levels and nonenergy prices generated by the economic model could be reflected in the technology and fuel-mix-selection solutions of the energy model. In turn, the engineering-based energy costs, energy prices, and capital requirements for energy systems characterized in the energy model are used to override the econometric estimates based on historical data in the economic model. Recently, the coupled models have been used to address questions concerning the macroeconomic impacts of accelerating the implementation of renewable energy technologies in the United States. Of particular interest were the scenarios where (1) renewables were included which cost more than conventional alternatives now and in the future, and (2) some renewables that are initially more costly are characterized by a learning curve so that in time their costs come to equal conventional alternatives. A further analysis was done for the first case (renewables always more expensive) under conditions where (1) the incremental costs were paid by the government through deficit financing, and (2) the incremental costs were paid by consumers. This paper presents the formulation of the analysis using the combined energy system - economic model and the results of the study.

Marcuse, W; Groncki, P J

1980-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

479

Solar future: 1978. [Market forecast to 1992  

SciTech Connect

The growth in sales of solar heating equipment is discussed. Some forecasts are made for the continued market growth of collectors, pool systems, and photovoltaics. (MOW)

Butt, S.H.

1978-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

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481

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past Santa Fe Institute Proceedings on the Studies in the Sciences of ...

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

Koottatep, Pakawkul

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

Rolling 12 Month Forecast November-2008.xls  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Month Exceedence Level: 90% (Dry) First Preference CVP Generation Project Use November 2008 October 2009 November 2008 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource...

484

A Statistical Analysis of the Dependency of Closure Assumptions in Cumulus Parameterization on the Horizontal Resolution  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Simulated data from the UCLA cumulus ensemble model are used to investigate the quasi-universal validity of closure assumptions used in existing cumulus parameterizations. A closure assumption is quasi-universally valid if it is sensitive neither ...

Kuan-Man Xu

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract--In deregulated electricity markets, short-term load forecasting is important for reliable power322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting presents a similar day-based wavelet neural network method to forecast tomorrow's load. The idea

Tesfatsion, Leigh

486

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets MISO NYISO PJM ERCOT CAISO Peak load 109,157 MW (7 ........................................................................................... 18 4 WIND POWER FORECASTING AND ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATIONS............................................................ 18 4-1 Market Operation and Wind Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets .......... 21 #12

Kemner, Ken

487

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

488

Regional load-curve models: QUERI's model long-run forecasts and sensitivity analysis. Volume 4. Final report. [Hourly demand in 32 US regions  

SciTech Connect

This report presents detailed forecasts of the hourly demand for electricity in 32 regions of the US through the year 2000. The forecasts are generated by a load curve model estimated by QUERI and described in Volume II of this report. Two primary sets of input assumptions for this model are utilized: one based on DRI's macro, regional and sectoral models is called the Baseline Scenario while the other, which is a projection of historical trends, is the Extrapolation Scenario. Under both assumptions, the growth rates of electricity are forecast to slow from historical levels. Load factors are generally projected to continue to decline; most regions are forecast to remain Summer peaking but this is rather sensitive to the choice of scenario. By considering other scenarios which are small perturbations of the Baseline assumptions, elasticities of average, peak and hourly loads are calculated. Different weather assumptions are also examined for the sensitivity of the load shapes to changes in the weather.

Engle, R.F.; Granger, C.W.J.; Ramanathan, R.

1981-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

489

Forecasting during the Lake-ICE/SNOWBANDS Field Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite improvements in numerical weather prediction models, statistical models, forecast decision trees, and forecasting rules of thumb, human interpretation of meteorological information for a particular forecast situation can still yield a ...

Peter J. Sousounis; Greg E. Mann; George S. Young; Richard B. Wagenmaker; Bradley D. Hoggatt; William J. Badini

1999-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

490

Experiments in Temperature and Precipitation Forecasting for Illinois  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Six years of daily temperature and precipitation forecasting are studied for Urbana, Illinois. Minimum temperature forecast skills, measured against a climatological control, are 57%, 48%, 34% and 20% for the respective forecast ranges of one, ...

John R. Gyakum

1986-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the entire forecast period, primarily because both weather-adjusted peak and electricity consumption were forecast. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather normalization, annual peak demand, natural gas demand, self-generation, conservation, California Solar Initiative. #12

492

The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration that is applied to ...

Yuejian Zhu; Zoltan Toth; Richard Wobus; David Richardson; Kenneth Mylne

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

A Probabilistic Forecast Approach for Daily Precipitation Totals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Commonly, postprocessing techniques are employed to calibrate a model forecast. Here, a probabilistic postprocessor is presented that provides calibrated probability and quantile forecasts of precipitation on the local scale. The forecasts are ...

Petra Friederichs; Andreas Hense

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The role of the human forecaster in improving upon the accuracy of numerical weather prediction is explored using multi-year verification of human-generated short-range precipitation forecasts and medium-range maximum temperature forecasts from ...

David R. Novak; Christopher Bailey; Keith Brill; Patrick Burke; Wallace Hogsett; Robert Rausch; Michael Schichtel

495

Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-...

Stanley A. Changnon; Joyce M. Changnon; David Changnon

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

496

Forecasting and Verifying in a Field Research Project: DOPLIGHT '87  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Verification of forecasts during research field experiments is discussed and exemplified using the DOPLIGHT '87 experiment. We stress the importance of forecast verification if forecasting is to be a serious component of the research. A direct ...

Charles A. Doswell III; John A. Flueck

1989-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...

Ramón de Elía; René Laprise

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

498

An Alternative Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Verification Technique  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts are included in a ...

Sim D. Aberson

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

On the Reliability and Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An important aspect of ensemble forecasting is that the resulting probabilities are reliable (i.e., the forecast probabilities match the observed frequencies). In the medium-range forecasting context, the literature tends to focus on the ...

Christine Johnson; Neill Bowler

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

500

Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a long-standing aim in meteorological forecasting. This paper explains the ...

Jochen Bröcker; Leonard A. Smith

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z